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How much will global sea level rise this century?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:49 PM GMT on July 13, 2009

How much will global sea level rise this century? Well, global sea level rise began in the late 1700s, and accelerated to 1.2 inches (3 cm) per decade over the past 25 years (see my post, Sea level rise: what has happened so far). If the conditions that led to this acceleration continue, we can expect sea level will rise an additional 1.1 ft (0.34 m) by 2100 (Jevrejeva et al., 2008). At a minimum, sea level rise during the 21st century should equal that of the 20th century, about seven inches (0.6 ft, 0.18 meters). This is the lower bound given by the IPCC in its 2007 assessment, which projected sea level rise of 0.6 - 1.9 ft (0.18 - 0.59 m) by 2100. However, they cautioned in their report that due to the lack of knowledge about how melting glaciers behave, the actual sea level rise might be higher. There is a growing consensus that the 2007 IPCC sea level rise estimates are much too low.


Figure 1. Observed global sea level from tide gauges (red line, pink color is the uncertainty range) and satellite measurements (green line), with forecasts for the future. The blue colors show the range of projections for three different forecasts (the forecasts overlap, but this overlap is not shown). Image modified from U.S. EPA.

The 2007 IPCC report: too conservative?
Three major sea level rise studies published since the 2007 IPCC report have argued that the IPCC's projections of sea level rise are too conservative. A paper published in 2008 in Science by Pfeffer et al. (2008) concluded that the "most likely" range of sea level rise by 2100 is 2.6 - 6.6 ft (0.8 - 2.0 meters). Their estimates came from a detailed analysis of the processes the IPCC said were understood too poorly to model--the ice flow dynamics of glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica. For example, increased glacial flow may result when water draining from melt water lakes on the surface of the glacier to the base of the glacier, where it acts as a lubricant. The authors cautioned that "substantial uncertainties" exist in their estimates, and that the cost of building higher levees to protect against sea level rise is not trivial.

Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany looked at the observed relationship between changes in sea level and global temperatures since 1900 (Rahmstorf, 2007). Rahmstorf showed that that there has been a direct relationship between sea level rise and global average temperature: 0.1 - 0.3 meters of sea level rise occurs per °C increase in global temperature. Using this relationship, Rahmstorf predicted 1.6 - 4.6 ft (0.5 - 1.4 m) of sea level rise by 2100, since the IPCC predicts that global temperatures will rise 1.4° to 5.8°C. Rahmstorf concluded, "very low sea-level rise values as reported in the 2007 IPCC report now appear rather implausible in the light of the observational data".

A similar approach was taken by Grinsted et al. (2009), but they extended the relationship between sea level and global average temperature all the way back to 200 A.D. using proxy records. They concluded that ice sheets respond more quickly to temperature changes than the computer models used in the 2007 IPCC assessment. The authors estimated that "IPCC projections of sea level rise 2090 - 2099 are underestimated by roughly a factor of three". The authors predicted that global sea level will be rising 11 mm/year by 2050--four times faster than the 20th century rise. By the last decade of this century, they forecasted that sea level will rise 3.0 - 4.3 feet (0.9 - 1.3 meters), using the IPCC's A1B "business as usual" scenario.

The long-range forecast: using paleohistory to forecast sea level rise
We can also look at times in Earth's past that had similar climate to what we expect by the year 2100. The best time to look at is probably just before the most recent ice age--the Eemian. This interglacial period 130,000 - 114,000 years ago featured temperatures near the poles that were 2°C warmer than present-day temperatures. Tree line lay about 500 miles farther north in the Canadian Arctic, and the hippopotamus ranged as far north as the Thames River in England. A similar climate is expected under some of the more moderate global warming scenarios envisioned by the IPCC. Sea level is believed to have been 4 - 6 meters (13 - 20 feet) higher than at present during the Eemian, but there is at least one unpublished study that presents evidence that global sea level was 6 - 9 meters (20 - 30 feet) higher. If the climate does warm to levels seen in the Eemian, it is widely believed that we would again see sea levels at least 4 - 6 meters higher than the present-day levels. Clearly, sea level rises of this magnitude would be ruinous to society. However, most climate change scientists believe that it would take many centuries for enough ice to melt from the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets to create sea level rises of 4 - 6 meters.

However, the scientist who is arguably the most visible and authoritative climate scientist in the world, Dr. James Hansen of NASA, stated (Hansen, 2007) "I find it almost inconceivable that business-as-usual climate change would not yield a sea level change of the order of meters on the century timescale" (IPCC business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios assume that emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases will continue to increase year after year). Hansen gave a hypothetical but potentially realistic scenario where the sea level rise due to ice sheet disintegration doubles every decade, leading to a 16 foot (5 meter) sea level increase by 2100. He noted that during the Plio-Pleistocene period 2 - 3 million years ago, CO2 levels were similar to today (350 - 450 ppm), and global temperatures were 2 - 3°C warmer, similar to what we expect by the end of the century. Yet, this Plio-Pleistocene world was "a dramatically different planet, without Arctic sea ice in the warm seasons and with a sea level 25 ± 10 m higher."

Summary
To summarize, here are some predictions of how high global sea level might rise by 2100:

0.6 ft (0.18 m): Constant linear rise, equal to 20th century rise
1.1 ft (0.34 m): Constant acceleration model (Jevrejeva et al., 2008)
0.6 - 1.9 ft (0.18 - 0.59 m): Primitive models of ice sheets (IPCC, 2007)
1.6 - 4.6 ft (0.5 - 1.4 m): Relationship between temperature and sea level rise since 1900 (Rahmstorf, 2007)
3.0 - 4.3 feet (0.9 - 1.3 m): Relationship between temperature and sea level rise since 200 A.D. (Grinsted et al., 2009)
2.6 - 6.6 ft (0.8 - 2.0 meters): Considering glacier ice flow dynamics not included by the IPCC (Pfeffer et al., 2008)

In a 2009 interview with New Scientist magazine, sea level expert Stephan Rahmstorf said, "I sense that now a majority of sea level experts would agree with me that the IPCC projections are much too low." This sentiment was echoed by glaciologist Robert Bindschadler of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, who commented, "most of my community is comfortable expecting at least a metre by the end of this century."

In forthcoming posts in this series, I'll explore how a meter (3.28 feet) of sea level rise will affect the U.S. coast, the Caribbean, and other vulnerable locations world-wide. It would be wise to begin preparing now for a potential rise in sea level of a meter this century. In particular, development near the coasts should be severely restricted in low-elevation zones. It will be very expensive to protect or move infrastructure away from rising seas later this century. However, even if the rate of sea level rise doubles every decade, those of us who are over the age of 50 will not live to see sea level rise cause a significant disruption to society. There is time for society to prepare for the rising sea.

References
Jevrejeva, S., J.C. Moore, A. Grinsted,, and P.L. Woodworth, 2008, "Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago?", Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L08715, doi:10.1029/2008GL033611, 2008.

Grinsted, A., J.C. Moore, and S. Jevrejeva, 2009, "Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD", Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-008-0507-2, 06 January 2009.

Hansen, J., 2007, "Scientific reticence and sea level rise",, Environ. Res. Lett. 2 (April-June 2007) 024002 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002.

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, 996 pp.

Pfeffer, W.T., J.T. Harper, and S. O'Neel, 2008, "Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise", Science 321 no. 5894, pp. 1340-1343, 5 September 2008. DOI: 10.1126/science.1159099

Rahmstorf, Stefan. "Sea-Level Rise: A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future." Science 315 (2007): 368–370.

Other posts in this series
Sea level rise: what has happened so far
U.S. vulnerability to sea level rise

Wednesday, I'll take a look at the Atlantic hurricane forecast for the remainder of July. There's currently nothing out there worth discussing--will it stay that way?

Dr. Ricky Rood has some interesting commentary on the new climate change legislation that passed the House last month, and will go to the Senate in September.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Sea level rise

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting BenBIogger:


Thank you Taz



your welcome
Quoting Vortex95:
Cloud tops are warming, but very slowly atm.

on what system???
Quoting IKE:
Headed right for your area weather456 at 132 hours... 5-5 1/2 days...which would be Sunday night/Monday.



Ikster, I thought that we weren't expecting anything to come out of that system anymore?
"Texas High"

Our local news info: "The upper-level pattern will undergo a big change starting Wednesday. High pressure that has dominated Texas Weather will move out of the state to the Southwestern U.S. This will allow upper-level disturbances and the sea breeze to become active Thursday and Friday. At present, we are "officially" 7.31 inches below normal on rainfall."

Maybe things are finally going change for us...
Been so HOT and DRY!!
2005. IKE
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Ikster, I thought that we weren't expecting anything to come out of that system anymore?


I never said anything one way or the other. I don't know...wait and watch...
Quoting Vortex95:


you're talking about the current wave off Africa Right?


Yes.
2007. WAHA
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Ikster, I thought that we weren't expecting anything to come out of that system anymore?

Things change like in milliseconds, be alarmed.
24 hrs



Quoting IKE:


I never said anything one way or the other. I don't know...wait and watch...


OK.
Quoting futuremet:
The GFS is now coming in consensus wit the ECMWF and CMC, with a more westward track. Albeit is more threatening for the SE U.S., the amplifying trough should be adequate to recurve it out to sea.


That is what our locals say. That it will or should recurve it out to see. Watch and see I guess..
Quoting Tazmanian:
. BenBIogger is not doing any thing wrong he may be a pine in the butt some time but hes not a troll and he not doing any thing wrong


this some time some of you jump the gune on things


he IS a troll, he constanly says in June 'this seasonsa bust' just to get our attention and tick us off. He's a classical troll like stormkat. Im sure you remember him.
in the mean time i will now sing too you



yay yay yay yay yay lol lol lol yay yay lol lol


i love you you love me
Ok now what IF the models mean to develop our African Wave? Maybe they're just initializing it in a different location like they always do :P

IKE,


I hope it is as weak as the GFS says it is. I really need rain up here. Water levels are low.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


he IS a troll, he constanly says in June 'this seasonsa bust' just to get our attention and tick us off. He's a classical troll like stormkat. Im sure you remember him.



him no hes not
Quoting Weather456:
24 hrs





What differences do you see in the 24 hours looks very impressive.
Quoting Weather456:
24 hrs





That pic definatly shows some nice development in the past 24 hours.
Quoting Weather456:
IKE,


I hope it is as weak as the GFS says it is. I really need rain up here. Water levels are low.

we need alot over here it is DRY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Im just ignoring BenBlogger still. I please ask you don't quote him.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


he IS a troll, he constanly says in June 'this seasonsa bust' just to get our attention and tick us off. He's a classical troll like stormkat. Im sure you remember him



this be come he may say this seasons is a bust this not make him a troll some time i may say this seasons is a but and dos that make me a troll???
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Im just ignoring BenBlogger still. I please ask you don't quote him.




not my boss
2023. WAHA
Quoting Tazmanian:
in the mean time i will now sing too you



yay yay yay yay yay lol lol lol yay yay lol lol


i love you you love me
we're a happy family
with a great big hug & a kiss from me 2 u
& I hope u love me 2
Troll or not you do have the power of the ignore button.
Quoting sporteguy03:


What differences do you see in the 24 hours looks very impressive.


Went from basically unnoticeable to a very impressive feature.


=======================


QuikSCAT showed no low level circulation but alot of westerly winds, which is something tropical waves find difficult in aquiring. Lots of turning also but most in the mid-levels.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Im just ignoring BenBlogger still. I please ask you don't quote him.



so what if he on your Ignore if we want too guote him we have evere right to do so
ok am ending this talk now befor i end up geting ban LOL
push of dry air southward across the Cape Verde Islands toward the wave.



Good evening everyone!
2030. WAHA
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Im just ignoring BenBlogger still. I please ask you don't quote him.

Well then I will (probably) ignore you.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_174l.gif

Watch out Southeast USA, no escape for this one LOL.. Tropical Wave, soo bad. Although the GFS had Felix as a Tropical Wave when it was a category 5 storm.
I think everyone needs to just chill and get away from the computer for awhile lol

I hate to think what it will be like here when we have an actual named system
2033. IKE
Quoting TexasHurricane:


That is what our locals say. That it will or should recurve it out to see. Watch and see I guess..


I can see why....look at the 18Z GFS @ 174 hours at 200 mb's...

Quoting reedzone:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_174l.gif

Watch out Southeast USA, no escape for this one LOL.. Tropical Wave, soo bad. Although the GFS had Felix as a Tropical Wave when it was a category 5 storm.


No escape? Its riding up the western edge of the high, looks like it will miss the US on this run too
Quoting WAHA:

Well then I will (probably) ignore you.


Okay I don't care. I know for a fact though Im not a troll, and I've seen to many to count of trolls here, Ben is one. If Ben isn't a troll, then stormkat (who so kindly said there would be 7 storms in 2007, 10 in 2008 if that) isn't a troll.

I mean come on, Im sure you can tell there will be more than 4 named storms this season. He doesn't even give a reason, he just puts that on there to start arguments. He's downcasted every invest this year including Pre-TD 1 and when they don't develop he rubs it in our faces and calls the season a bust.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
I think everyone needs to just chill and get away from the computer for awhile lol

I hate to think what it will be like here when we have an actual named system
Ohhh Noooo we have a named system....lol
2037. DDR
Quoting Weather456:
IKE,


I hope it is as weak as the GFS says it is. I really need rain up here. Water levels are low.

Yea i hope you do get some,right now tobago is getting hammered
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


No escape? Its riding up the western edge of the high, looks like it will miss the US on this run too


If it does escape, the model will have it brushing the Carolinas before heading out, but it looks more it will ride off the western edge of the high and hit the Carolinas.
Quoting reedzone:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_174l.gif

Watch out Southeast USA, no escape for this one LOL.


LOL right back at you, are you a masochist or something? I doubt this will hit the US, or any land other than maybe Bermuda, with this east coast trough in place.
Quoting reedzone:


If it does escape, the model will have it brushing the Carolinas before heading out, but it looks more it will ride off the western edge of the high and hit the Carolinas.


Has it brushing NE actually, long way away, no real credence in it anyway
Proves my point :)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_204l.gif

The storm takes the EURO track and heads up the eastern seaboard. This is a classic track.
hm, almost :50, lets see what TWC says, for the lulz
2043. IKE
18Z GFS...watch out NY!
I have always heard the adage that if no forecast models develops something of promise, look out lol

Also if the models are doing so poorly by developing things that dont develop, who's to say that something they dont pick up cant develop?
Quoting IKE:
18Z GFS...watch out NY!


I have family up there, should I call and tell them to board up? LMAO
456, what are you thinking about the African Wave...could we have another system like Bertha last year...or do you think it could be another Bertha of 1996 or maybe neither?
2047. IKE
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I have family up there, should I call and tell them to board up? LMAO


LOL...I'd hold off....for now....
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Okay I don't care. I know for a fact though Im not a troll, and I've seen to many to count of trolls here, Ben is one. If Ben isn't a troll, then stormkat (who so kindly said there would be 7 storms in 2007, 10 in 2008 if that) isn't a troll.

I mean come on, Im sure you can tell there will be more than 4 named storms this season. He doesn't even give a reason, he just puts that on there to start arguments. He's downcasted every invest this year including Pre-TD 1 and when they don't develop he rubs it in our faces and calls the season a bust.




I was not around for TD1 since I only began posting in mid June.

Quoting winter123:
hm, almost :50, lets see what TWC says, for the lulz


"A few waves rolling off, nothing to be concern about"
I think if this area develops it will be like Ana 2009 and no other storm previous lol
Of course it's only a model run but I honestly believe that the high pressure will remain strong and steer anything that forms near the East Coast then if a strong trough comes in, should recurve the storm but not until it passes south of Bermuda. The high is just too strong for a 2006 recurvature to happen.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
I think if this area develops it will be like Ana 2009 and no other storm previous lol


Absolutely 100% agree! :P
Quoting cyclonekid:
456, what are you thinking about the African Wave...could we have another system like Bertha last year...or do you think it could be another Bertha of 1996 or maybe neither?


I think the wave has potential to develop and I don't see it recurving before 50W. It is highly uncertain beyond that point.
Quoting reedzone:


Absolutely 100% agree! :P


I think it will loop 3 times in the Atlantic and then move south and cross the equator, put on its cloaking device and disappear for 4 days; eventually reappearing as a CAT 4 storm making landfall in Ecuador
2056. Patrap
Nothing like a Invest to be to bring out the er,mania
Thats great news...So if the wave that we are talking about develops, florida should be safe because it will likely recurve? Just making sure because I just booked a hotel on ft.lauderdale beach for july 18-24.
Quoting Patrap:
Nothign like a Invest to be to bring out the er,mania


and there isnt even an invest yet lol

Quoting Funkadelic:
Thats great news...So if the wave that we are talking about develops, florida should be safe because it will likely recurve? Just making sure because I just booked a hotel on ft.lauderdale beach for july 18-24.


Even if it were to hit Florida, I think you would be back home before it did
Quoting Funkadelic:
Thats great news...So if the wave that we are talking about develops, florida should be safe because it will likely recurve? Just making sure because I just booked a hotel on ft.lauderdale beach for july 18-24.


No idea. We have absolutley no idea.
2061. WAHA
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I think it will loop 3 times in the Atlantic and then move south and cross the equator, put on its cloaking device and disappear for 4 days; eventually reappearing as a CAT 4 storm making landfall in Ecuador

If you are right I will give you a billion dollars i swear
Quoting Funkadelic:
Thats great news...So if the wave that we are talking about develops, florida should be safe because it will likely recurve? Just making sure because I just booked a hotel on ft.lauderdale beach for july 18-24.


NEVER trust the models past 96 hours. Heck...never trust than past 24 hours.

IF anything developes it looks like a trough will be in place...the question is will it re-curve over Florida or over the West Atlantic.
Quoting Weather456:


I think the wave has potential to develop and I don't see it recurving before 50W. It is highly uncertain beyond that point.

Ok Thanks, what are your percentages of this thing developing?
2064. rxse7en
Amazing how refined and detailed all of the weather products have gotten over the years since I've been participating here.

On a side note, some people are just way too sensitive to participate in an open forum. If you were here five or six years ago, like a lot of us, you'd have lost your minds with some our participants, ahem, Stormtop. I don't have anyone on my ignore list, I just enjoy everyone's comments for what they are and asking people not to quote others is just plain wrong. If I can give any advice on participating here, it is just to simply enjoy all of it and don't take anything personally.

Anyone remember when Stormtop used to post his own weather advisories in the guise of actual NHC advisories?
Quoting IKE:
18Z GFS...watch out NY!


Oh boy... I hope this isn't correct!

Luckily, long range forecasts are seldom absolutely correct. Might get some rain out of it, if anything.
Simply said: Who what where when How
2067. aquak9
oh lordy lordy, who needs TV when they've got WU.
2069. aquak9
oh wow rx7, we musta been posting at the same time!!!
Good to see ya, dude.

Oh and ya'll...give the whole stormtop situation a rest. My goodness...

Yeah rx7, ain't nothing like it used to be.
2070. TxKeef
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I think it will loop 3 times in the Atlantic and then move south and cross the equator, put on its cloaking device and disappear for 4 days; eventually reappearing as a CAT 4 storm making landfall in Ecuador


No the plan has been foiled! It would have succeeded if not for you meddling bloggers!
That wave is at least 2 weeks away from the CONUS...and there is no guarantee it will develop. Let’s get real people.
2072. rxse7en
Hiya, Aqua! This sites entertainment potential is 50% weather and 50% personalities. I'd pay an extra $10/year if Jeff would add a battle/arena function. :D
yup step 1, it has to actually develop first before we can even figure out a good idea of where it would go

I am sure there is a good analogy to show this, but I cant think of one right now lol
96E doesnt look very good right now
2075. aquak9
heck I'd give an extra $20 just to listen to folks battle it out on loudspeaker! of course, it'd hafta be weather-related...

Still enjoy the foolishness here sometimes, the younger folks get so serious and you can tell when an older person comes in and just breaks everyone up into laughter...

(BAP that includes you!)
You mean like when we have kids classifying 96E as a TD or Dolores already when in reality it isnt even close at this point?
Here is the quikscat pass for this evening. So far no surface low with the new wave.

QS
Quoting reedzone:


If it does escape, the model will have it brushing the Carolinas before heading out, but it looks more it will ride off the western edge of the high and hit the Carolinas.


Reed, I do not necessarily disagree with you.


However the most sensible case scenario at the moment is for little to no SE U.S. impact. Ever since yesterday, the models have been harmonizing toward a more westerly track, and then recurvature very close to the U.S. Things may change in the future, and the computer models may very well trend to a more westerly track. There complications that you must consider: strength, A/B high, and the trough.

The stronger the system, the more it will be influenced by upper level systems, and will be more susceptible to recurvature induced by the trough. Now SSTs should not be much of an inhibitor for tropical cyclogenesis since the temperatures are mostly marginally favorable. Wind shear will be a vital factor, because shear is high just to the west of it. Wind shear is expected to decrease near the Northern Antilles and the NE caribbean next week, providing a less hostile environment. This would reasonably lead to a stronger system, and therefore more of a chance to be caught by the weakness.

If the ridge stays strong, and continue to delay eastward propagation of the trough, then a more westerly track is likely. In addition to that, if the trough delays, shear should be weaker near Florida. This is why the 00z CMC expected this system to bomb out.

Overall, this all a matter of IF. But at the moment, a recurvature out to sea with no or little impact in the U.S. seems to be the scenario.

2079. WAHA
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
You mean like when we have kids classifying 96E as a TD or Dolores already when in reality it isnt even close at this point?

yes
Quoting futuremet:


Reed, I do not necessarily disagree with you.


However the most sensible case scenario at the moment is for little to no SE U.S. impact. Ever since yesterday, the models have been harmonizing toward a more westerly track, and then recurvature very close to the U.S. Things may change in the future, and the computer models may very well trend to a more westerly track. There complications that you must consider: strength, A/B high, and the trough.

The stronger the system, the more it will be influenced by upper level systems, and will be more susceptible to recurvature induced by the trough. Now SSTs should not be much of an inhibitor for tropical cyclogenesis since the temperatures are mostly marginally favorable. Wind shear will be a vital factor, because shear is high just to the west of it. Wind shear is expected to decrease near the Northern Antilles and the NE caribbean next week, providing a less hostile environment. This would reasonably lead to a stronger system, and therefore more of a chance to be caught by the weakness.

If the ridge stays strong, and continue to delay eastward propagation of the trough, then a more westerly track is likely. In addition to that, if the trough delays, shear should be weaker near Florida. This is why the 00z CMC expected this system to bomb out.

Overall, this all a matter of IF. But at the moment, a recurvature out to sea with no or little impact in the U.S. seems to be the scenario.



Wonder how many people stopped lurking after you said that lol. Well said
2080. Weather456 6:12 PM EST on July 14, 2009

All rotation in the mid levels for now
Quoting cyclonekid:

Ok Thanks, what are your percentages of this thing developing?


30-50%
2084. Dar9895
This is what Mark Sudduth from the Hurricane Track said:

In the Atlantic, there is a chance we'll see some development out of the deep tropics. The feature is a bundle of moisture and energy associated with a tropical wave, or two, and the ITCZ or Intertropical Convergence Zone. Several of the global computer models are indicating that an organized area of low pressure will eventually take shape in the region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. It will probably be slow going since it is not climatologically a favorable area just yet. None the less, conditions are not terrible for development and thus we'll see how things transpire over the coming days. It would be interesting to see development out of the deep tropics if for no other reason than the forecast negative conditions for that region. Should something pop now, it would at least mean that perhaps, just perhaps, the region won't be as hostile as some of the long range models suggest. Still, we're about a month away from really eyeing that area of the Basin so for now, it is just wait and see.
Quoting futuremet:


Reed, I do not necessarily disagree with you.


However the most sensible case scenario at the moment is for little to no SE U.S. impact. Ever since yesterday, the models have been harmonizing toward a more westerly track, and then recurvature very close to the U.S. Things may change in the future, and the computer models may very well trend to a more westerly track. There complications that you must consider: strength, A/B high, and the trough.

The stronger the system, the more it will be influenced by upper level systems, and will be more susceptible to recurvature induced by the trough. Now SSTs should not be much of an inhibitor for tropical cyclogenesis since the temperatures are mostly marginally favorable. Wind shear will be a vital factor, because shear is high just to the west of it. Wind shear is expected to decrease near the Northern Antilles and the NE caribbean next week, providing a less hostile environment. This would reasonably lead to a stronger system, and therefore more of a chance to be caught by the weakness.

If the ridge stays strong, and continue to delay eastward propagation of the trough, then a more westerly track is likely. In addition to that, if the trough delays, shear should be weaker near Florida. This is why the 00z CMC expected this system to bomb out.

Overall, this all a matter of IF. But at the moment, a recurvature out to sea with no or little impact in the U.S. seems to be the scenario.



But guys, we're talking about a system that doesn't even presently exists out there right now?
2086. Patrap
Quoting kmanislander:
2080. Weather456 6:12 PM EST on July 14, 2009

All rotation in the mid levels for now


I've stated ways back.
2088. Patrap
LOL..

456,your not going unnoticed,..we saw ya earlier post.

Relax and enjoy a Fresca.
But a avatar update would really help yas in da Long run.

I feel Like were conversing with a cartoon half the time
Quoting Weather456:


I've stated ways back.


No prob. Just came on and pulled up quikscat. Nothing at all going on at the surface other than rain.
2090. aquak9
2088-- LMAO!!!

oh my, can't breathe...
2091. WAHA


Carlos looks pretty strong, maybe next advisory it will be a major hurricane, am I correct?
Quoting Patrap:
LOL..

456,your not going unnoticed,..we saw ya earlier post.

Relax and enjoy a Fresca.
But a avatar update would really help yas in da Long run.

I feel Like were conversing with a cartoon half the time


And a very young one at that.
2093. Patrap
Carlos has peaked and is filling some what.

I think He is past his glory days,..as the Intensity forecast calls for gradual weakening from here out.




RAMMB on CARLOS
I just have to put my two cents in... While reading the blog, I keep noticing this new word "recurve" or "recurvature". Unfortunately, the word is a contradiction in itself. To "recurve" means to curve, bend or turn twice. It's a misleading statement to say "Storm XYZ looks like it may recurve in ABC direction..." Now, a more correct statement would be "Storm XYZ looks like it may turn to the ABC position." Just an observation. Carry on...
Hey there everyone! Just checking in. I got a new computer after my last tucked out on me and lost my link to the models website. Can someone post me a link to the models....thanks!
Quoting Weather456:


30-50%

Thanks...that would indicate a Orange Circle on the NHC website. :) Good enough for me. Anything to get an Ana around here.
Quoting fire831rescue:
I just have to put my two cents in... While reading the blog, I keep noticing this new word "recurve" or "recurvature". Unfortunately, the word is a contradiction in itself. To "recurve" means to curve, bend or turn twice. It's a misleading statement to say "Storm XYZ looks like it may recurve in ABC direction..." Now, a more correct statement would be "Storm XYZ looks like it may turn to the ABC position." Just an observation. Carry on...


First West, then a curve to the North, then a RECURVE to the East LOL
2099. andy1
Quoting fire831rescue:
I just have to put my two cents in... While reading the blog, I keep noticing this new word "recurve" or "recurvature". Unfortunately, the word is a contradiction in itself. To "recurve" means to curve, bend or turn twice. It's a misleading statement to say "Storm XYZ looks like it may recurve in ABC direction..." Now, a more correct statement would be "Storm XYZ looks like it may turn to the ABC position." Just an observation. Carry on...


In the sense of tropical met, a recurving cyclone is one that changes from a westerly component to an easterly one.
Quoting fire831rescue:
I just have to put my two cents in... While reading the blog, I keep noticing this new word "recurve" or "recurvature". Unfortunately, the word is a contradiction in itself. To "recurve" means to curve, bend or turn twice. It's a misleading statement to say "Storm XYZ looks like it may recurve in ABC direction..." Now, a more correct statement would be "Storm XYZ looks like it may turn to the ABC position." Just an observation. Carry on...


Curve and Recurve were in a boat....

Baaaa nevermind lol
Quoting Patrap:
2095. SunKissed


Allan's Tropical Model and Weather Data Page


Thanks Patrap! Let's have a quiet season...I won't have to make any trips to LA and you won't have to make any to TX :)
Hey Pat I know you love to keep track of him, but do you know if Jim Cantore made it to the CV Islands to cover our blob yet? lol
2107. Patrap
Jim Cantore is not available as He's Mourning the Firing of Dave Schwartz.


Dave Schwartz, Cheryl Lemke, Eboni Deon: Weather Channel fired staff


.."I gotta tell ya Folks,Im devasted by the news"..

.."Back to you in the Studio"..



Quoting Patrap:
Jim Cantore is not available as Hes Mourning the Firing of Dave Schwartz.


Dave Schwartz, Cheryl Lemke, Eboni Deon: Weather Channel fired staff


.."I gotta tell ya Folks,Im devasted by the news"..

.."Back to you in the Studio"..





If someone had to be fired, those people were the right choice. I didn't like any of them really. But then again, Stephanie Abrams doesn't do it for me either and she's their golden child it seems.
2109. WAHA
Someone post something already!
We knew this already but good

Lower Level Convergence
and
Upper Level Divergence
2111. WAHA
I can't wait to see what the next advisory brings. Do you think CV wave can last a few more minutes, or possibly an hour or better yet,
seven days or more?
805pm discussion on Invest 96E, not too promising for development IMO

...TROPICAL LOW...

LOW 14N112W 1008 MB MOVE WEST NORTHWEST 10 KT. THE CONVECTION IS
HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER
AND NOT WELL ORGANIZED. MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES THE SYSTEM
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND WEAKENS THE CIRCULATION AFTER
ABOUT 36 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN THE AREA FROM 109.5W TO 112W FROM 11N TO 16N. PRES
GRADIENT N OF CENTER RESULTS IN LARGE AREA FRESH WINDS WITHIN
330 NM OF CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY AS BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO A LESS ADVERSE WINDS
ALOFT.
2113. jjjj
Dr. Masters sir,
You must be getting government money to continually espouse this AGW scam.There are many scientists who would readily dispute your storms and sea level rise predictions. Ever check out WUWT blog?
Thanks
Jack
waha, if that thing heads this way. I would be more than happy to strap you to a cash register at the local Home Depot. This is a blog about providing information. All I need to say to those who like to hype stuff up: Remember what happened to all those people along the Bolivar Peninsula last year. We are here to make sure that never happens again.
NHC calling (as usual this season) A conservtive call. Lets see if it can hold till tomorrow
000
ABNT20 KNHC 142340
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
waha, if that thing heads this way. I would be more than happy to strap you to a cash register at the local Home Depot. This is a blog about providing information. All I need to say to those who like to hype stuff up: Remember what happened to all those people along the Bolivar Peninsula last year. We are here to make sure that never happens again.


Couldnt have said it better myself.
Quoting weathersp:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 142340
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


LOL ah well.
Quoting weathersp:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 142340
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


''WAKE UP, GUYS''
Quoting jjjj:
Dr. Masters sir,
You must be getting government money to continually espouse this AGW scam.There are many scientists who would readily dispute your storms and sea level rise predictions. Ever check out WUWT blog?
Thanks
Jack


Everything you hear on the radio dosent need to be repeated word for word.
2121. WAHA
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
waha, if that thing heads this way. I would be more than happy to strap you to a cash register at the local Home Depot. This is a blog about providing information. All I need to say to those who like to hype stuff up: Remember what happened to all those people along the Bolivar Peninsula last year. We are here to make sure that never happens again.

It's not aimed that way, it will likely not make landfall.
Quoting jjjj:
Dr. Masters sir,
You must be getting government money to continually espouse this AGW scam.There are many scientists who would readily dispute your storms and sea level rise predictions. Ever check out WUWT blog?
Thanks
Jack


While I believe Global Warming was a scam for money and is not real, it was wrong to accuse Dr. Masters.
Quoting CaneWarning:


If someone had to be fired, those people were the right choice. I didn't like any of them really. But then again, Stephanie Abrams doesn't do it for me either and she's their golden child it seems.
Well ,it is just the beginning to a far left weather program.Sad,next thing will be Keith Obberman giving interviews..
waha, as I said. we are not here to make predictions, rather to provide information so that in the event it does or another one does. That we do not have a repeat of last year.
2100 comments and only about 10 on Global Warming. No one gives a heck about the temperature on the earth July 16 2500, we will all be dead. The climate will always change regardless of human activity, just like the tropics right now, which you barely discuss.
yup nuttin, its the right call too, cuz its nuttin yet
So the 8 p.m. shows nothing huh? I guess with the convection waning, they want to see if it can build up again later on tonight which is possible. Now for the people who said shear wasn't a problem, there has been 20 knots of shear on the southside of this wave all day and still is there.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=europe&sat=wm7&prod=shr&zoom=&time=
Remember..This is an entertainment blog...Rely on your local authorities if a storm threatens.
2129. Ossqss
It is always a good thing, as many have stated here, to make sure the communication provided is easily understood by those who need it :).

NHC thinks 96E is close and has gotten better organized, I dont see it lol

maybe the circulation has gotten better organized, but it has no convection over its center lol
2131. WAHA
I wonder if Carlos has strengthened.
2132. aquak9
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
waha, if that thing heads this way. I would be more than happy to strap you to a cash register at the local Home Depot. This is a blog about providing information. All I need to say to those who like to hype stuff up: Remember what happened to all those people along the Bolivar Peninsula last year. We are here to make sure that never happens again.


No, I want to make him carry ceses and cases and cases of water and hundreds of cots and set up five RedCross shelters and supplying them while driving around in 40mph winds for eighteen hours.

In torrential rain.

With crappy windsheild wipers.

And No defrost.

AND HUNGRY.
I'm not surprise with the NHC TWO, as that will be the trend this year. If the area remains as it is by 2mr, they will have no choice, so give it till morn.
this forecaster brown is death or something cause he probably saw it but doesn't tell the whole crew there something to watch
Quoting btwntx08:
this forecaster brown is death or something cause he probably saw it but doesn't tell the whole crew there something to watch


LOL you are getting antsy, have you applied for the hurricane center yet? There is nothing there yet to warrant any circles.
2136. WAHA
Quoting aquak9:


No, I want to make him carry ceses and cases and cases of water and hundreds of cots and set up five RedCross shelters and supplying them while driving around in 40mph winds for eighteen hours.

In torrential rain.

With crappy windsheild wipers.

And No defrost.

AND HUNGRY.

All that did for you was make me get a bowl of popcorn and laugh at the funny you got me. By the way, I don't drive.
Dr. Lyons did mention the area and said the two low pressure areas (new wave and 35W) will eventually merge and head off towards the west north west. Said he will monitor the features but no signs thus far. Didn't expected him to mention it.
2138. aquak9
hahaha, waha, then you can sit in the passenger seat (it leaked, by the way)

can't believe we've re-visited the curve-recurve discussion, we went thru about four days of that arguement here last year...

How much curve could a re-curve curve...
2139. Patrap
The Warming of the Earth isnt a debate,the Warming is occurring and that's just how it is.

Anyone who can read can see the Global evidence of the warming.

Most dont know what to think cuz they never have put forth the effort to see whats occurring, But most I bet Know who the Last Dancing with the Stars winner,or American Idol top dog was I bet.
Thus the confusion..

LOL
Latest TWD... wtf? Are these written by robots?

"A NEW ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 11.5N
BETWEEN 24W AND 26W."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/141734.shtml?

Hmmm... Quickscat shows a near closed surface low, there is a well-defined midlevel low with textbook outflow, and there has been persistant convection near the center for the past 24+ hours. And thats all it gets?
Quoting Patrap:
The Warming of the Earth isnt a debate,the Warming is occurring and that's just how it is.

Anyone who can read can see the Global evidence of the warming.

Most dont know what to think cuz the never have given the the effort to see whats occurring, But most I bet Know who the Last Dancing with the Stars winner,or American Idol top dog was I bet.
Thus the confusion..

LOL


Ah so if someone doesnt agree with that point of view, we are all airheads who havent bothered to look into the debate? Please LOL
2142. WAHA
Quoting aquak9:
hahaha, waha, then you can sit in the passenger seat (it leaked, by the way)

can't believe we've re-visited the curve-recurve discussion, we went thru about four days of that arguement here last year...

How much curve could a re-curve curve...

I would be helping people, and I really like to do that. About the seat maybe I had to go to the bathroom real bad and then it had a leak on it! LOL Anyways stop ridiculing me.
2143. Patrap
Persistance over time sport,thats what they look for.

The NHC isnt around to satisfy some blogger's criteria for a invest, Thats why they have their criteria,...for it to be met.

Anyhoot,,whats the rush ?
Not meaning to spark any debates and this will be the only time I mention my "faith" on this. I am a Christian and I do not believe in Global Warming. I believe that the warming of the earth and all the crazy weather is due to "religious" reasons from my faith. that's all I'm gonna say about that, back to the weather...

I have a right to speak my mind, It's my opinion and I am subject to it.
2145. Patrap
Best make yer way to Glacier National Park and bring the Kids too.
Cuz in the near future,they wont be a Glacier in it.

I could give a rats butt what anyone thinks on the subject.
My opines as valid as any.

If ya want,..you can do a Blog on all you expound in Knowledge on the subject.

2146. aquak9
Lord'a'mercy, waha, take it easy...I'm not ridiculing you. Laugh with it a little, ok? Nobody attacked you, take it easy.

I'm a RedCross Disaster worker. Sometimes we gotta drag our kids around with us for short jobs. Like you, they help too, and are proud of being able to help.

Have one of Patrap's Frescas. I'm gonna have one too. :)
Quoting Patrap:
Best make yer way to Glacier National Park and bring the Kids too.
Cuz in the near future,they wont be a Glacier in it.

I could give a rats butt what anyone thinks on the subject.
My opines as valid as any.

If ya want,..you can do a Blog on all you expound in Knowledge on the subject.



your opinion is your opinion, thats fine, but you are the one that assumed those who dont believe in Global Warming also watch American Idol and things like that. Nice assumption there, because they have everything to do with each other lol

There are many brillant people who dont buy into the GW speculation, does that mean they are airheads too?
2148. Patrap
Ummm,,Fresca and New Puppy Breath.

Life is good.

Meet "Nola Roux"..our newest Fam member.

Quoting Patrap:
Ummm,,Fresca and New Puppy Breath.

Life is good.

Meet "Nola Roux"..our newest Fam member.



Now that is a cute puppy lol, Did he find what he was looking for in the grass?
2150. WAHA
Quoting aquak9:
Lord'a'mercy, waha, take it easy...I'm not ridiculing you. Laugh with it a little, ok? Nobody attacked you, take it easy.

I'm a RedCross Disaster worker. Sometimes we gotta drag our kids around with us for short jobs. Like you, they help too, and are proud of being able to help.

Have one of Patrap's Frescas. I'm gonna have one too. :)

Okay, I'll take it more easy, just that I think this tropical wave will last a long time.
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142341
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
CARLOS...LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED
TODAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED
FROM THE CENTER...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

2153. Patrap
That Pacific area is a Large Circulation Taz,should be interesting to see How that one evolves.
Quoting winter123:
Latest TWD... wtf? Are these written by robots?

"A NEW ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 11.5N
BETWEEN 24W AND 26W."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/141734.shtml?

Hmmm... Quickscat shows a near closed surface low, there is a well-defined midlevel low with textbook outflow, and there has been persistant convection near the center for the past 24+ hours. And thats all it gets?
Just looked at the one at 21 w and sure looks a lot healthier than the previous one and a kind of organized.
2155. WAHA
The superstars is on bye
2156. Ossqss
Here is some ice core info. You can find any info you want to relating to this subject. The most recent I found completely tainted the temperature readings over the last century and cuts the legs out of any of the claims on any side of the GW, now climate change debate.




US temp reading accuracy report

No one can claim anything after reading how manipulated these records are now. We really have no idea of the truth at this point because of this type of bad science. For those of you hard and fast on the GW item, read it and tell me how you feel about how accurate our records and the global surface observations are now. To use information like this to push any agenda is just wrong. Can you poke a hole in that report?
Big Brother is on at 9:00 p.m.!
The Glaciers in South America are growing cause its too hot out right?
Can I please have the coordinares of the 2 tropical waves being mentioned this evening?
Quoting Patrap:
The Warming of the Earth isnt a debate,the Warming is occurring and that's just how it is.

Anyone who can read can see the Global evidence of the warming.

Most dont know what to think cuz they never have put forth the effort to see whats occurring, But most I bet Know who the Last Dancing with the Stars winner,or American Idol top dog was I bet.
Thus the confusion..

LOL
and there ain't nothing we can do about it.
its all ready a runaway train now we sit back and witness the changes
2161. IKE
Without reading the past hour on the blog, I bet some were ticked off with...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
2162. hydrus
PATRAP-Have you looked at the latest satellite loop of that wave south of Cape Verde islands?It looks like it wants to be Ana.
Quoting IKE:
Without reading the past hour on the blog, I bet some were ticked off with...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


yup a few were
I can't believe the EATL wave didn't get a yellow circle, just wait a minute , I guess the reliable "models" ain't picking up on it just yet or there is no concensus, I still think man is relying too much on machine to make their calls, while I agree with their use as guidance and no doubt they can be quite useful and accurate, what is happening to good observance & occasional exceptions to the rule, can't help, its just my humble opinion.
Quoting Patrap:
The Warming of the Earth isnt a debate,the Warming is occurring and that's just how it is.

Anyone who can read can see the Global evidence of the warming.

Most dont know what to think cuz they never have put forth the effort to see whats occurring, But most I bet Know who the Last Dancing with the Stars winner,or American Idol top dog was I bet.
Thus the confusion..

LOL


Patrap, I think you know me better than that. Nothing I like less than having to lay eyeballs on that sort of tube drivel...bad enough to have to hear it from time to time should someone else be watching.

And cooling, warming, or neither can cause a glacier to shrink, be it unnaturally or naturally. Far more important is the regional jet stream patterns and precip (just like tree rings, Mr Mann). Lots of glaciers still generally shrinking since the last ice age, too.

I think you also what sort of data hound I am, too. I'll stop there, friend.
2166. IKE
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


yup a few were


LOL...figures....
Tears of thoughts of yellow circles are flowing tonight Ike.
The wave south of the C.V. Islands looks pretty goodbut how long has it been out over water? Has it had enough time to see if it will/can maintain?
Quoting stormpetrol:
I can't believe the EATL wave didn't get a yellow circle, just wait a minute , I guess the reliable "models" ain't picking up on it just yet or there is no concensus, I still think man is relying too much on machine to make their calls, while I agree with their use as guidance and no doubt they can be quite usefdul and accurate, what is happening to good observance & occasional exceptions to the rule, can't help, its just my humble opinion.


No I think some are losing the idea of what that yellow circle means. Nothing will be posted in the TWO and no circles show up if there is nothing out there that will develop in 48 hours. That wave may look good, but it doesnt mean its going to develop in 48 hours. NHC has called it right by not doing anything
2170. IKE
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Tears of thoughts of yellow circles are flowing tonight Ike.


hehe....
Quoting Ossqss:
Here is some ice core info. You can find any info you want to relating to this subject. The most recent I found completely tainted the temperature readings over the last century and cuts the legs out of any of the claims on any side of the GW, now climate change debate.




US temp reading accuracy report

No one can claim anything after reading how manipulated these records are now. We really have no idea of the truth at this point because of this type of bad science. For those of you hard and fast on the GW item, read it and tell me how you feel about how accurate our records and the global surface observations are now. To use information like this to push any agenda is just wrong. Can you poke a hole in that report?


Sockpuppets are fun, boys and girls.

As an aside: That Ice Core Data provides data proving warming, as it reads from right to left in terms of time.

Great detective work there, though.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


''WAKE UP, GUYS''
there awake it will be when it will be
Also this wave hasnt persisted for 24 hours yet, we all know that is a rule of thumb for the NHC

If the organization is still there tomorrow, we could see the NHC notice it
The wave is being assisted by the itcz still, alot of people think they are smarter the nhc here, they should relax
Quoting willdunc79:
The wave south of the C.V. Islands looks pretty goodbut how long has it been out over water? Has it had enough time to see if it will/can maintain?
2175. Ossqss
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Tears of thoughts of yellow circles are flowing tonight Ike.


We don't need any canes :)

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


No I think some are losing the idea of what that yellow circle means. Nothing will be posted in the TWO and no circles show up if there is nothing out there that will develop in 48 hours. That wave may look good, but it doesnt mean its going to develop in 48 hours. NHC has called it right by not doing anything

just my opinion , I ain't going argue about it, I'm no expert and don't claim to be, anyway lets wait and see what happens, fact is no one really knows.
If you ask me, I think the wave still over land is squashing CV wave. lookie:

2178. IKE
If there's a cat 2 in the GOM 300 miles from landfall, this blog will...be insane...

I use to believe in GW, but believed it was overhyped. Now I think it is nothing but a sad hoax. However, I do respect Dr Masters' opinion. One thing he has to keep in mind is that, all of these models his using were made so that higher CO2 levels will lead to warming. Using such a biased model, doomsday melting is inevitable.
the yellow circle will be there at the 2 am two or the 8 am two
Noted Kidcayman
Quoting willdunc79:
Can I please have the coordinares of the 2 tropical waves being mentioned this evening?
A NEW ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 11.5N
BETWEEN 24W AND 26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. SOME CELLS OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 37W AND 38W.
CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA
FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W.
Quoting Ossqss:


We don't need any canes :)


VERY good image there!
Of course ya get it wrong a lot before successfully coming up with a product as complicated as a hurricane intensity model, but I hope these guys get it right soon. We are in rather poor shape with our current suite of intensity models.

This is soooo very far off of the NHC forecasts for Carlos (maybe the NHC has just gotten bashful about expecting Carlos to do much after the weekend's forecasts):
Quoting willdunc79:
The wave south of the C.V. Islands looks pretty goodbut how long has it been out over water? Has it had enough time to see if it will/can maintain?
24 it must have 24 hr's over open water and firing maintaining and increasing convective values to be declared


REQUIREMENTS FOR Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

If a system gets 35 to 38 points, a TCFA may be issued depending on Dvorak trends, and if a system gets 39 points or more a TCFA should be issued.

Surface
Condition Points
A circulation is evident using visible satellite, shortwave infrared, microwave imagery or QuikSCAT/Windsat ambiguities 3 points
A circulation has been evident for at least 24 hours 5 points
A westerly surface- or gradient-level wind of 5 kt that is within 200 nm (370 km, 230 mi) south of the centre of the disturbance 5 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 20 kt 2 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 25 kt 3 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 30 kt 4 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has reported had a pressure drop of 2 mb over 24 hours 3 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has had a pressure drop of 3 mb over 24 hours 4 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is less than 1010 to 1009 mb 3 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is 1008 mb or less 4 points

500 mb height
Condition Points
There is evidence of at least an inverted trough 2 points
There is evidence of a closed circulation in the system 4 points

200 mb height
Condition Points
Westerly flow of at least 15 kt over the disturbance -4 points
There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow over the centre of the disturbance 4 points
Easterly flow of at most 20 kt over the disturbance 3 points

Sea surface temperature
Condition Points
The sea surface temperature is 26 Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit) or higher 3 points

Satellite data
Condition Points
The system has persisted for at least 24 hours 3 points
The system has persisted for at least 48 hours 4 points
The system has persisted for at least 72 hours 5 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.0 to T1.5 from all three agencies (TAFB, SAB, AFWA) 3 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.5 to T2.0 from all three agencies 5 points
The Dvorak final-T number has decreased by T0.5 to T1.0 from two or more agencies -2 points

Miscellaneous
Condition Points
The cloud system is north (or south) of 5 degrees latitude 3 points
The tropical system is within 72 hours of reaching a Department of Defense resource 3 points
The cloud system center and the satellite centre fixes for the system are within 2 degrees of each other 2 points
**********************************************************
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
the yellow circle will be there at the 2 am two or the 8 am two

Personally contrary to what some might think, I personally don't care if I ever see a yellow circle or red one for that matter, after going through Ivan in 2004 and come near losing everything you ever worked for I even hate to hear the word hurricane, I tell you some here got it all wrong or get the wrong impression, this site is becoming a bashing gotcha game, I don't think I'll be posting here much anymore!
Do you guys believe that the CV wave will suck up the wave behind it?

Or will the CV wave not be able to develop because of the wave behind it?
Quoting stormpetrol:

Personally contrary to what some might think, I personally don't care if I ever see a yellow circle or red one for that matter, after going through Ivan in 2004 and come near losing everything you ever worked for I even hate to hear the word hurricane, I tell you some here got it all wrong or get the wrong impression, this site is becoming a bashing gotcha game, I don't think I'll be posting here much anymore!


Been through to many to count, moved to the wrong states in the wrong years. Isabel and Charley stick out the most for me. Isabel to me though was way worse than Charley. And I was in Charley as a weakening Category 3/2.
It is unfortunate you feel that way petrol, but many times people get very carried away here to the point that they say things that are completely false, whether due to wanting something to develop or lack of knowledge.

Even pointing this out in a generous way is still bashing those people, there is unfortunately no way around it sometimes.
I tell you some here got it all wrong or get the wrong impression, this site is becoming a bashing gotcha game, I don't think I'll be posting here much anymore!

I will agree that it has been less that titillating to be in this particular room since the season started.
2191. IKE
Quoting atmoaggie:
I tell you some here got it all wrong or get the wrong impression, this site is becoming a bashing gotcha game, I don't think I'll be posting here much anymore!

I will agree that it has been less that titillating to be in this particular room since the season started.


You just put some in one ear and out the other or put them on ignore or take a break from blogging on here.

Some times it is unnerving.
2192. IKE
I almost always do something else while I'm on here, like work...watch TV or listen to music.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Been through to many to count, moved to the wrong states in the wrong years. Isabel and Charley stick out the most for me. Isabel to me though was way worse than Charley. And I was in Charley as a weakening Category 3/2.
Ivan hit the Cayman Islands as a Cat 4-5 and I agree with Stormpetrol 100% and wil;l be happy to never hear about another hurricane again and I too have been through too many to count . Grew up in S. Miami from 1960-1973.
Don't know if the new wave will develop or not but each one coming off Africa now is looking more and more ominous so I don't think it will be much longer until something does form.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
It is unfortunate you feel that way petrol, but many times people get very carried away here to the point that they say things that are completely false, whether due to wanting something to develop or lack of knowledge.

Even pointing this out in a generous way is still bashing those people, there is unfortunately no way around it sometimes.

To be honest I wasn't directing my post to you, it was a general comment of what I been seeing here lately by a few, I only picked the post by wunderkidcayman regarding the yellow circle to express my feelings in general, personally I don't get that offended as everyone will have an opinion one way or the other, of course most will think their opinion is the best, just human nature, I'm just speaking about the blog in general.
2196. Ossqss
Have we watched the preceeding wave provide support for the following wave over the last few days? The current wave of interest could do the same for the one emerging now.

Are we witnessing the chain reaction of residual energy, or what could be the creation of the first cyclone from the wave that is now coming off of the coast of Africa? Just making an observation based question up :)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Been through to many to count, moved to the wrong states in the wrong years. Isabel and Charley stick out the most for me. Isabel to me though was way worse than Charley. And I was in Charley as a weakening Category 3/2.

Isabel is the only storm I've been through and even as a TS it managed to flip my life up-side-down.
Ike...

I still have a crow order (medium-well , Hold the A1) for you if there is one named storm in july.

Quoting IKE:
"I believe there will be no named storms in July if not CROW me.."

StormWatcherCI Thanks for answering my question.
2200. IKE
Quoting weathersp:
Ike...

I still have a crow order (medium-well , Hold the A1) for you if there is one named storm in july.




LOL...keep it on hold. I may be wrong....soon.....
Ike I agree with your statement I think/believe there will be no named July storm so quote me on that weathersp.

2195. stormpetrol 12:52 AM GMT on July 15, 2009 To be honest I wasn't directing my post to you, it was a general comment of what I been seeing here lately by a few, I only picked the post by wunderkidcayman regarding the yellow circle to express my feelings in general, personally I don't get that offended as everyone will have an opinion one way or the other, of course most will think their opinion is the best, just human nature, I'm just speaking about the blog in general.----------------------------------------
I been through all of the hurricanes and tropical storms in cayman from 1994-2008 and I don't like it either but it is life and we just have to live with it because of ivan I have been keeping a close eye on the tropics I lost my room and my dad which is the owner of hell cayman islands and lost the club up to now it still not open so that is a big loss to me and I don't want to see more
Quoting IKE:


You just put some in one ear and out the other or put them on ignore or take a break from blogging on here.

Some times it is unnerving.


Now you see why I like the early morning frame on here case in point this morning easier to make a comment and move on :)
JMHO I think the sheer and SST's as well as the pattern in place now over the east coast(trough being stuck in place as well as the continous fronts moving off the coast)will keep a named tropical system from forming in July. Again everyone JMHO before you all start to jump on me.
Quoting willdunc79:
Ike I agree with your statement I think/believe there will be no named July storm so quote me on that weathersp.


1. I just did (see above)^^

2. Do you wanna put a crow on that?

3. Crows ordered before July 15 get their choice of how they want it cooked...

*NOTICE: Orders after July 15th are prone to being burnt..*
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Don't know if the new wave will develop or not but each one coming off Africa now is looking more and more ominous so I don't think it will be much longer until something does form.


Fully agree! Each wave that comes off the coast has a better chance to development than the one prior. The one emerging now looks like a monster. What's up with the African wave train??
Quoting weathersp:


1. I just did (see above)^^

2. Do you wanna put a crow on that?

3. Crows ordered before July 15 get their choice of how they want it cooked...

*NOTICE: Orders after July 15th are prone to being burnt..*


LMAO
All we can really do is pray
ok weathersp yeah let's put a crow on it deal!
Quoting willdunc79:
JMHO I think the sheer and SST's as well as the pattern in place now over the east coast(trough being stuck in place as well as the continous fronts moving off the coast)will keep a named tropical system from forming in July. Again everyone JMHO before you all start to jump on me.


You and IKE might be right, possibly no named storm this month, I can see that happening. You both are subject to your opinions.
Quoting willdunc79:
JMHO I think the sheer and SST's as well as the pattern in place now over the east coast(trough being stuck in place as well as the continous fronts moving off the coast)will keep a named tropical system from forming in July. Again everyone JMHO before you all start to jump on me.


not jumping on you but SSTs are favorable over most of the Atlantic Basin, so I dont think that would be a hinderance. The other things you mentioned definitely could.
Quoting willdunc79:
StormWatcherCI Thanks for answering my question.
You're welcome.
Ike...you are one of my most favorite blogges...however, I do believe we will see Ana this month. BTW, I do like A1 sauce with my crow:)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (2130z 14JUL)
=============================================
An area of convection (91W) located at 10.9N 131.1E or 300 NM northwest of Palau. Recent aniamted infrared imagery indicates deep convection is still flaring over a defined low level circulation center. A 1648z 89 ghz AMSR-E image depicts multiple convective bands starting to wrap into the low level circulation center. Animated water vapor imagery shows that intensity has waned in the last 12 hours as the tropical upper tropospheric trough previously helping to provide poleward outflow has shifted to the west. However, there is another Tropical Upper Tropospheric trough developing to the northeast of the system that could help to provide another poleward channel in the next 24 hours. Due to the rapidly still favorable upper level environment and consolidating microwave signature, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains GOOD.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (0000z 15JUL)
=============================================
An area of convection (96E) located at 13.0N 112.8W or 600 NM southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Animated multispectral imagery shows deep convection continuing to flare on the northern and eastern peripheries of the system. Additionally, a 1739z ASCAT pass shows a consolidating low level circulation center with stronger winds (25-35 knots) away from the center. A 2101z 89 ghz AMSR-E microwave image also shows a well defined low level circulation center with multiple convective bands wrapping into the center. Upper level analysis indicates the system continues to remain in an area of minimal vertical wind shear as it sits under an anticyclone aloft.

Maximum sustaine winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minmum sea level pressure of 1005 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains GOOD.
Two Tropical Cyclone Formation Alerts and they're NOT in the Atlantic. =P
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

2195. stormpetrol 12:52 AM GMT on July 15, 2009 To be honest I wasn't directing my post to you, it was a general comment of what I been seeing here lately by a few, I only picked the post by wunderkidcayman regarding the yellow circle to express my feelings in general, personally I don't get that offended as everyone will have an opinion one way or the other, of course most will think their opinion is the best, just human nature, I'm just speaking about the blog in general.----------------------------------------
I been through all of the hurricanes and tropical storms in cayman from 1994-2008 and I don't like it either but it is life and we just have to live with it because of ivan I have been keeping a close eye on the tropics I lost my room and my dad which is the owner of hell cayman islands and lost the club up to now it still not open so that is a big loss to me and I don't want to see more
Don't worry. Remember, Ivan hit us hard but God was on our side. Only two deaths both which could have been prevented.
ut oh...Hades is posting...Is it 3:00 am already? (Just a joke)
Just took a look at Carlos. Didn't realize he had intensified so much. Winds at 105 mph.
2220. theBlur
Quoting IKE:
I almost always do something else while I'm on here, like work...watch TV or listen to music.


Hope, based on your avatar, that the music in your ear is classic Zep.


Very small compact CAT 2
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

2195. stormpetrol 12:52 AM GMT on July 15, 2009 To be honest I wasn't directing my post to you, it was a general comment of what I been seeing here lately by a few, I only picked the post by wunderkidcayman regarding the yellow circle to express my feelings in general, personally I don't get that offended as everyone will have an opinion one way or the other, of course most will think their opinion is the best, just human nature, I'm just speaking about the blog in general.----------------------------------------
I been through all of the hurricanes and tropical storms in cayman from 1994-2008 and I don't like it either but it is life and we just have to live with it because of ivan I have been keeping a close eye on the tropics I lost my room and my dad which is the owner of hell cayman islands and lost the club up to now it still not open so that is a big loss to me and I don't want to see more


Is your father the one who dresses as the devil?? We had a blast in hell!
Quoting RMM34667:


Is your father the one who dresses as the devil?? We had a blast in hell!
If that is his father he is also named Ivan and a very nice man.
Just jumped on after staying away for a few days and there is a lot of hype on the waves off of Africa.

For weeks on here I read that this year we would not see any long track CV storms and we would not see storms form below 20 degrees N.

My question is. Have things changed out there? Are we now expecting CV long track storms?

Quoting RMM34667:


Is your father the one who dresses as the devil?? We had a blast in hell!

no he is my dad good friend from donkey years
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no he is my dad good friend from donkey years
I always thought Ivan was the owner of Hell.
Man, none of the experimental models want anything to do with the C.V.s.


great day can't wait to go back!
Uggg...I will replace the crow with sea scallops. Have any good recipes Pat?
2232. aquak9
pushing the envelope, eh?? Good one.
Quoting RMM34667:


great day can't wait to go back!
Nice pic.
What do you mean aqua?
2235. theBlur
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Just jumped on after staying away for a few days and there is a lot of hype on the waves off of Africa.

For weeks on here I read that this year we would not see any long track CV storms and we would not see storms form below 20 degrees N.

My question is. Have things changed out there? Are we now expecting CV long track storms?



Probably not, at least not this early in the season, but as always it should be watched. Methinks it will die out in the next 24 hours or so as it is absorbed into the ITCZ.
How's our Cv wave doing tonight, guys?
The Blur I believe that after the 1st C.V. wave now over water the convection will slowly start to die out and won't be able to rebuild & sustain and the second wave still over Africa as soon as it hits water will fade away JMHO.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Nice pic.


Yeah my mother and the devil hit it off. but I guess that is common since he had a scrape book of his 5 wives.

Grand Cayman was great. Awsome WEATHER (staying on topic). Took KMAN's advice and hung out at calico jacks most of the day!
Quoting willdunc79:
The Blur I believe that after the 1st C.V. wave now over water the convection will slowly start to die out and won't be able to rebuild & sustain and the second wave still over Africa as soon as it hits water will fade away JMHO.


agreed
navy site now shows that 96E has be come TD 5

Link
so dos this


000
WHXX01 KMIA 150134
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0134 UTC WED JUL 15 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE FIVE (EP052009) 20090715 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090715 0000 090715 1200 090716 0000 090716 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.5N 113.5W 14.4N 115.1W 15.6N 117.0W 16.7N 119.1W
BAMM 13.5N 113.5W 14.4N 115.3W 15.4N 117.3W 16.5N 119.4W
LBAR 13.5N 113.5W 14.2N 115.4W 15.4N 118.0W 16.6N 121.2W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 39KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090717 0000 090718 0000 090719 0000 090720 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.8N 121.4W 20.1N 126.3W 22.5N 130.8W 25.9N 133.7W
BAMM 17.7N 121.8W 20.1N 127.2W 22.4N 132.5W 25.2N 136.3W
LBAR 17.9N 124.7W 20.4N 131.7W 22.1N 135.4W 23.4N 123.2E
SHIP 38KTS 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 38KTS 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 113.5W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 112.0W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 110.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
2242. Patrap
Taz brings us the latest TD of 2009...

Ty Taz


Look at carlos compared to TD5 LOL.
You could fit 10 carlosses in td5.
2244. aquak9
I meant nothing, really, Geoffry. Probably got lost in the hype, a cross-over comment so to speak...was not directed at anyone posting here.
2245. Patrap
Carlos,..never did so Little get so much Press.

LOL

..well,cept for Gov.Palin.

"You Betcha"..!
Quoting Patrap:
Taz brings us the latest TD of 2009...

Ty Taz



yup where on a row here where up too D now
2247. JRRP
Quoting WeatherStudent:
How's our Cv wave doing tonight, guys?

Link
Quoting JRRP:

Link


Impressive, thanks.
Are there recent / updated images from the eastern atlantic or do we have to wait till tomorrow to see how things look. It will be interesting to see what happens with the wave about to roll off.
looks like more wave be hide TD 5 will be geting a ch of doig some in
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Two Tropical Cyclone Formation Alerts and they're NOT in the Atlantic. =P
things are picking up there are more to come
Quoting RMM34667:


Yeah my mother and the devil hit it off. but I guess that is common since he had a scrape book of his 5 wives.

Grand Cayman was great. Awsome WEATHER (staying on topic). Took KMAN's advice and hung out at calico jacks most of the day!
I don't knowe when you were here but the only thing I can say about the weather now is no rain and HOT AS HELL !
Anyone from the Charleston Low Country here? Wondering if you know what that was about 20 minutes ago. Friend called from Mt.P and asked if I knew if it was another earthquake. I had heard and felt a bit of a bump, but no swaying (I am on the 3rd floor in downtown Charleston), so I am doubting it was an earthquake. Also heard and felt West of the Ashley.
Only earthquake in SC documented in last week:

Link
looking forword too what the NHC has too say about TD 5
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't knowe when you were here but the only thing I can say about the weather now is no rain and HOT AS HELL !


We were there october 2007, and if I remember correctly they were complaining about the lack of rain then as well. Coming from FL we can completely relate. Except we don't have to worry about trucking in water when it's too dry! We can still turn on our faucets (for now anyway). Seems like it can never be the right balance.. Too much or too little is more the norm!
well I guess we have TD 5-E, looking at it I am not impressed
2259. Ossqss
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Anyone from the Charleston Low Country here? Wondering if you know what that was about 20 minutes ago. Friend called from Mt.P and asked if I knew if it was another earthquake. I had heard and felt a bit of a bump, but no swaying (I am on the 3rd floor in downtown Charleston), so I am doubting it was an earthquake. Also heard and felt West of the Ashley.


Earthquakes the last 7 days

Could have been PressLord, he has been missing lately :)
You guys remember a couple of weeks ago when we were saying that GFS is just not a good model for cyclogenesis (well someone was)? Smileys

And this morning, the NHC GFS "grid-scale feedback"?

No way no how can a model with 0.5 degree resolution (~55 km, ~34 miles) up to 180 hours and 1.0 degree resolution beyond that time (~111 km, ~68 miles) be honestly expected to start with a wave and effectively conduct some physical equations that spin up a TC.

I am surprised that GFS can even "see" Carlos. I am also surprised that GFS EVER succeeds at genesis.

All we can really do is watch it for development. The models? Seriously lacking (in either direction, pick one). Good thing we have satellites. Smileys
Quoting RMM34667:


We were there october 2007, and if I remember correctly they were complaining about the lack of rain then as well. Coming from FL we can completely relate. Except we don't have to worry about trucking in water when it's too dry! We can still turn on our faucets (for now anyway). Seems like it can never be the right balance.. Too much or too little is more the norm!
Don't truck in water here ither. We use reverse osmosis and de-sal.
I didn't think Presslord would just make a 1.7 mag earthquake walking around ;) I thought he was good for at least a 2!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Don't truck in water here ither. We use reverse osmosis and de-sal.


OH I was thinking it would be the same as my sister in St. Thomas. When her cesturn (sp?) runs dry they have to pay someone to come fill it!


Meteosat 4 km IR4 Floater
(CIRA Personnel Only)
Thanks, StSimon
Years ago, we had an active seismic monitoring at Charleston Southern. Not sure why that fell by the wayside.

Now, I am not sure how fast the reporting is, since we are no longer in the network (at least as far as I know). In any case, it did not feel like the earthquake that I felt years ago (about a 3 something) - no sway.
Was not like the sound and shake you get with a sonic boom. I am guessing some sort of explosion.

USGS, updates do not show anything for us.


Meteosat 14 km Water Vapor
(CIRA Personnel Only)
I was wrong about the active monitoring and reporting - At least as far as the monitoring. There are quite a few monitoring stations - not sure if they are auto reporting or require a body there to see the monitor.
2268. Ossqss
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I didn't think Presslord would just make a 1.7 mag earthquake walking around ;) I thought he was good for at least a 2!


I would bid a 4 minimum :)

2260. atmoaggie

I have asked many times if the transitioning environment from La to EL was messing with the models. I got no answers,but it appears it may indeed be subjecting the code to that of which it is not prepared to handle. Just an ob from a newbie :)

Good evening all

Just stopping in to say that I will probably not be on the blog until the 26th July as the family is heading off to Vancouver tomorrow for an Alaskan cruise.

So, while I am gone PLEASE ensure there are no cyclones anywhere near the NW Caribbean OK ??? LOL

However, if I do see anything brewing I may check in via laptop from the ship !. This is such an awful addiction LMAO
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Thanks, StSimon
Years ago, we had an active seismic monitoring at Charleston Southern. Not sure why that fell by the wayside.

Now, I am not sure how fast the reporting is, since we are no longer in the network (at least as far as I know). In any case, it did not feel like the earthquake that I felt years ago (about a 3 something) - no sway.
Was not like the sound and shake you get with a sonic boom. I am guessing some sort of explosion.

USGS, updates do not show anything for us.


Sure it wasn't a sonic boom? We've had several down here the past few days- the guys at Marine Air Corps Station Beaufort have been active lately with exercises.

Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening all

Just stopping in to say that I will probably not be on the blog until the 26th July as the family is heading off to Vancouver tomorrow for an Alaskan cruise.

So, while I am gone PLEASE ensure there are no cyclones anywhere near the NW Caribbean OK ??? LOL

However, if I do see anything brewing I may check in via laptop from the ship !. This is such an awful addiction LMAO
have a good trip kman i hope for calm seas for your trip on the ship
I have asked many times if the transitioning environment from La to EL was messing with the models. I got no answers,but it appears it may indeed be subjecting the code to that of which it is not prepared to handle. Just an ob from a newbie :)

You might confusing an observation of this years model results, under a different regime than recent years, with your own personal increasing level of awareness. And the El Nino, so far, is just barely an El Nino at all.

Hypothetical goofy BS: If anyone throws a few ice cube overboard, it will flip flop like a senator turned presidential candidate (pick any).
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
have a good trip kman i hope for calm seas for your trip on the ship


Thanks Keeper. At least there won't be any tropical cyclones in those fjords !


nice view of tropical atlantic - what do we think of our waves?
The Discussion on TD 5-E should be interesting.
Quoting tennisgirl08:


nice view of tropical atlantic - what do we think of our waves?


sorry link - Link
Here's the discussion:

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150244
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS INDICATED BY VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A RECENT ASCAT
PASS. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION NEAR THE
CENTER...IT IS ORGANIZED INTO BANDS ON THE LARGE SCALE...WITH
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO WARRANT THE INITIATION OF ADVISORIES.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT ON THE BASIS OF THE ASCAT
DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SINCE THE CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS SO LITTLE HISTORY...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/9. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT MID
LEVELS...AND A LOW AT UPPER LEVELS...LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION. THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE CONVECTION
IS ASYMMETRIC ENOUGH TO PERHAPS CAUSE THE CENTER TO JUMP OR REFORM
TO THE NORTH OR EAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. APART FROM THIS...A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS AND TURNS MORE WESTWARD WITH THE
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE RIGHT
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSE TO THE ECMWF...EARLY BUT THEN
FAVORS THE LEFT-LEANING GFS/GFDL/HWRF SOLUTION LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE UPPER LOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE'S CENTER...AND THE CURRENT LIMITED CENTRAL ORGANIZATION OF
THE SYSTEM ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE DEPRESSION...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS
COOLER WATERS IN 36-48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUIT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 13.8N 113.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 14.8N 115.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.4N 117.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 119.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 19.0N 122.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 21.0N 134.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 20/0000Z 21.0N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Quoting SavannahStorm:


Sure it wasn't a sonic boom? We've had several down here the past few days- the guys at Marine Air Corps Station Beaufort have been active lately with exercises.

I would not swear to anything. Actually, though I felt and heard it enough to take my attention for a moment, I really did not think twice about it. However, out on the Isle of Palms, it was very loud. Woke folks up, rattled windows etc. Local media is on it haha. Though it did not seem like a sonic boom from here on the peninsula, I would not be surprised, if it turns out to be one.

kmanislander
Enjoy! We will hold off all storms.
2280. centex
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening all

Just stopping in to say that I will probably not be on the blog until the 26th July as the family is heading off to Vancouver tomorrow for an Alaskan cruise.

So, while I am gone PLEASE ensure there are no cyclones anywhere near the NW Caribbean OK ??? LOL

However, if I do see anything brewing I may check in via laptop from the ship !. This is such an awful addiction LMAO
I'll be on cruise your way stopping 7/30 and I also hope it stays calm.
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150244
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052009
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS INDICATED BY VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A RECENT ASCAT
PASS. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION NEAR THE
CENTER...IT IS ORGANIZED INTO BANDS ON THE LARGE SCALE...WITH
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO WARRANT THE INITIATION OF ADVISORIES.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT ON THE BASIS OF THE ASCAT
DATA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SINCE THE CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS SO LITTLE HISTORY...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/9. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT MID
LEVELS...AND A LOW AT UPPER LEVELS...LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION. THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE CONVECTION
IS ASYMMETRIC ENOUGH TO PERHAPS CAUSE THE CENTER TO JUMP OR REFORM
TO THE NORTH OR EAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. APART FROM THIS...A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS AND TURNS MORE WESTWARD WITH THE
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE RIGHT
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSE TO THE ECMWF...EARLY BUT THEN
FAVORS THE LEFT-LEANING GFS/GFDL/HWRF SOLUTION LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE UPPER LOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE'S CENTER...AND THE CURRENT LIMITED CENTRAL ORGANIZATION OF
THE SYSTEM ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE DEPRESSION...WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS
COOLER WATERS IN 36-48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUIT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 13.8N 113.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 14.8N 115.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.4N 117.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 119.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 19.0N 122.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 21.0N 134.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 20/0000Z 21.0N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

Quoting centex:
I'll be on cruise your way stopping 7/30 and I also hope it stays calm.


My office overlooks the cruise ship tender dock. If you need some tips let me know.
Quoting SavannahStorm:


nice view Savannah! What do we think? Still looks to have persistent convection.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
I would not swear to anything. Actually, though I felt and heard it enough to take my attention for a moment, I really did not think twice about it. However, out on the Isle of Palms, it was very loud. Woke folks up, rattled windows etc. Local media is on it haha. Though it did not seem like a sonic boom from here on the peninsula, I would not be surprised, if it turns out to be one.

kmanislander
Enjoy! We will hold off all storms.


Much appreciated !
Quoting atmoaggie:
You guys remember a couple of weeks ago when we were saying that GFS is just not a good model for cyclogenesis (well someone was)? Smileys

And this morning, the NHC GFS "grid-scale feedback"?

No way no how can a model with 0.5 degree resolution (~55 km, ~34 miles) up to 180 hours and 1.0 degree resolution beyond that time (~111 km, ~68 miles) be honestly expected to start with a wave and effectively conduct some physical equations that spin up a TC.

I am surprised that GFS can even "see" Carlos. I am also surprised that GFS EVER succeeds at genesis.

All we can really do is watch it for development. The models? Seriously lacking (in either direction, pick one). Good thing we have satellites. Smileys


Now you understand why I take the GFS with a gain of salt for cyclogenesis. It is a very good model for large scale synoptic forecasting... but the smaller you get, the more problems you are likely to have. Also, keep in mind it is a *global* model. It can only have so much resolution and capabilities. It can sometimes be a "canary in a coal mine", but it can also just as easily be completely out to lunch on cyclogenesis. Once a storm is spinning though, it is fairly good, since it then becomes a known quantity, with a smaller range of uncertainty.
Evening all.

Hey kman, I notice that like other tropical entities u are moving from the tropics to the poles. . . . nice cross-continent transition without losing your conformation or having to change ur name to a EPac one....

lol

Have a great time!
Enjoy KMAN!
Quoting tennisgirl08:


nice view Savannah! What do we think? Still looks to have persistent convection.


It's hard to say, but there is obviously a lot of vorticity in that system. Too bad the Quickscat missed it on both the ascending and descending passes. Once we get a good Quikscat we'll have an idea of what's going on at the surface, if anything.

There's still some dry air and dust about, but the wave ahead of it significantly cleared its path.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all.

Hey kman, I notice that like other tropical entities u are moving from the tropics to the poles. . . . nice cross-continent transition without losing your conformation or having to change ur name to a EPac one....

lol

Have a great time!



Yep, carrying the heat to the North . Can't wait for all that smoked salmon and booze LOL
2291. Ossqss
2272. atmoaggie

Ah, the Butterfly effect :)
Quoting kmanislander:
<


Have a good and safe trip Kman! Say Hi to Orca I think he is up that way.
Quoting RMM34667:
Enjoy KMAN!


Will do and thanks. Got my glacier gear packed.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening all

Just stopping in to say that I will probably not be on the blog until the 26th July as the family is heading off to Vancouver tomorrow for an Alaskan cruise.

So, while I am gone PLEASE ensure there are no cyclones anywhere near the NW Caribbean OK ??? LOL

However, if I do see anything brewing I may check in via laptop from the ship !. This is such an awful addiction LMAO


We shall, sir. Have an absolutely superb vacation with your wife and daughter. :)
Quoting sporteguy03:


Have a good and safe trip Kman! Say Hi to Orca I think he is up that way.


Actually I have a whale watching trip booked. You don't suppose I might see him do you ??
If im not mistaken our CV wave is entering D-MAX now right? Do you guys see any signs of developing?
Good night! I have a feeling the next few weeks in the tropics will be interesting...

P.S. Have a great trip, kman!
Quoting WeatherStudent:


We shall, sir. Have an absolutely superb vacation with your wife and daughter. :)


And one of my sons. The other son left for the UK today.

First vacation since last December so very much looking forward to it.

Looks like the tropics will be quiet until August which would be just fine by me.
Quoting jeffs713:


Now you understand why I take the GFS with a gain of salt for cyclogenesis. It is a very good model for large scale synoptic forecasting... but the smaller you get, the more problems you are likely to have. Also, keep in mind it is a *global* model. It can only have so much resolution and capabilities. It can sometimes be a "canary in a coal mine", but it can also just as easily be completely out to lunch on cyclogenesis. Once a storm is spinning though, it is fairly good, since it then becomes a known quantity, with a smaller range of uncertainty.


Unless it is a small storm, in which case it doesn't perform so well.

And don't bash global, only by name and coverage. The Japanese have developed a global model of higher spatial resolution that resolves clouds (and I think it explicitly carries out cloud calculations) that has been able to correctly model the MJO a few weeks out, spin up a TC at the right time, and model its track and intensity quite well. Called NICAM. One version here: http://www.ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~satoh/nicam/index.html
We just need that model, and others similar, to get to the operational stage.
Quoting Funkadelic:
If im not mistaken our CV wave is entering D-MAX now right? Do you guys see any signs of developing?


Dmax around 11-4 right? Not sure - we really need a Quickscat pass to really tell if it is developing.
Anyway, good night and thanks for all the bon voyage salutations.

Don't be surprised if I check in from the chilly North .
Quoting Ossqss:
2272. atmoaggie

Ah, the Butterfly effect :)


And we just lost Lorenz in the last year or so.

I remember having to write code to numerically solve and graphically display that at A&M. Was neat.
Quoting kmanislander:
Anyway, good night and thanks for all the bon voyage salutations.

Don't be surprised if I check in from the chilly North .


Au revoir, Kman
Quoting kmanislander:


And one of my sons. The other son left for the UK today.

First vacation since last December so very much looking forward to it.

Looks like the tropics will be quiet until August which woould be just fine by me.


Them as well, LOL. Ooohhh, God hear ya, let's hope so. I dread to think that August and September are just around the corner.
Quoting atmoaggie:


Au revoir, Kman


Au revoir
Quoting kmanislander:



Yep, carrying the heat to the North . Can't wait for all that smoked salmon and booze LOL
LOL know what u mean.... I'm out of here for a few days myself on Thursday, but I'll be staying within internet range for the most part. I should be able to get onto the blog once or twice a day to see if anything is happening while I'm gone.

However, I'm with Ike on the no formation for the rest of this month. I don't think we'll see the different elements converge sufficiently before then.
When can the next Quickscat pass be expected
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Dmax around 11-4 right? Not sure - we really need a Quickscat pass to really tell if it is developing.


It is already about 3am in the area of that wave, it has passed DMIN, coming up on DMAX in a few hours
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI

AOI
Quoting SavannahStorm:


It's hard to say, but there is obviously a lot of vorticity in that system. Too bad the Quickscat missed it on both the ascending and descending passes. Once we get a good Quikscat we'll have an idea of what's going on at the surface, if anything.

There's still some dry air and dust about, but the wave ahead of it significantly cleared its path.



How did it miss? I thought it was supposed to go right over it. And i saw a quickscat linked here that showed an on open low... N winds on the west, W winds on the south, but weak north winds on the northeast of the storm.

Also that graphic is cool. thanks.
2312. Ossqss
Quoting atmoaggie:


And we just lost Lorenz in the last year or so.

I remember having to write code to numerically solve and graphically display that at A&M. Was neat.


Go figure an insurance company would capitalize on the theory. LoL -- Night all

praise the lord!!
There is a 60% chance of weather being a go for tomorrow's launch
I am a bit surprised by the classification of TD 5-E, considering how 90L and 92L were not classified

a bit puzzling to me.
So the CV wave has NOT gone thru D-MAX yet?
Quoting RMM34667:


OH I was thinking it would be the same as my sister in St. Thomas. When her cesturn (sp?) runs dry they have to pay someone to come fill it!
No. We have 2 water companies now which use the treatments I mentioned although some people still rely on cisterns and wells.
Does anyone else notice the bloom near 27W 13N that seems be holding its own aside from our wishcasted friend to the east?
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
I am a bit surprised by the classification of TD 5-E, considering how 90L and 92L were not classified

a bit puzzling to me.


I know 90L should have been classified, but I'm still skeptical about 92L. Even though it had an eye and stuff, I dunno, stranger things have happened. Btw, I see our CV wave still looks pretty good, a ball of convection near the suspected circulation. If this can last till tomorrow, I see a yellow, maybe orange code coming up, and even if I dare mention INVEST 95L :O lol
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
I am a bit surprised by the classification of TD 5-E, considering how 90L and 92L were not classified

a bit puzzling to me.


In season and actually a threat to become something.
Quoting Funkadelic:
So the CV wave has NOT gone thru D-MAX yet?


No it has not, remember D-MAX usually enhances convection
Quoting hurricanefiend85:
Does anyone else notice the bloom near 27W 13N that seems be holding its own aside from our wishcasted friend to the east?


13N 27W is that area
The second wave appears to have covered around half of the distance previously between the two waves over the last +/- 21hrs.

Looks like could form one instead of being two seperate, imo.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS®ION=AFRICA&SECTOR=Overview&AGE=Prev &SIZE=Full&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&PATH=CONUS/focus_regions/AFRICA/Overview/vis_ir_background/mete o8&SUB_BASIN=Region/Sector&ANIM_TYPE=Instant&DISPLAY=Single&INTERVAL=Most_Recent&SUB_PRODUCT=meteo8


Meteosat 4 km IR4 Floater
(CIRA Personnel Only)
Interesting it looks like convection has waned a bit but also grown in size with the CV wave. DMAX will be interesting tonight and should make the call for the future of this wave.
Dr. Lyons said tonight that the CV Wave have "no chance of developing".
2327. beell
I wonder if the S and SW (a westerly component) low level monsoonal flow towards the coast of W Africa has anything to do with the good presentation and stronger vorticity of the east and central Atlantic T-Waves. As they leave the coast. Some added spin. The eastern T-Wave may not look as impressive in another 24.

Soon as they get away from the coast and surrounded by the easterlies they seem to look a little less than spectacular. I think there was a consensus here a few days ago that any wave crossing the ATL would have a less than perfect enviroment.

Not much convection but still some structure.
SSD Unenhanced IR Loop
Quoting beell:
I wonder if the S and SW (a westerly component) monsoonal flow towards the coast of W Africa has anything to do with the good presentation and stronger vorticity of the east and central Atlantic T-Waves. Some added spin. The eastern T-Wave may not look as impressive in another 24.

Soon as they get away from the coast and surrounded by the easterlies they seem to look a little less than spectacular. I think there was a consensus here a few days ago that any wave crossing the ATL would have a less than perfect enviroment.

Not much convection but still some structure.
SSD Unenhanced IR Loop
hopefully just pretty to look at
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Dr. Lyons said tonight that the CV Wave have "no chance of developing".


I guess we better believe him, since he has a ''Ph.D'' in tropical meteorology. :)
TWC really has gone down the tubes, now I like Dr Lyons, but really this is based solely on climatology and the fact that his information goes to the masses who normally dont know about these systems in detail.

Quoting WeatherStudent:


I guess we better believe him, since he has a ''Ph.D'' in tropical meteorology. :)
everything has a chance no matter how small don't think they know everything yet strange days indeed
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Dr. Lyons said tonight that the CV Wave have "no chance of developing".



I guess we better believe him, since he has a ''Ph.D'' in tropical meteorology. :)


He's just one resource. I do listen to what he says but I don't take his word to the bank. He can be wrong just like everyone else.

Having said that, I think we are still a week or two away from our first storm. That is just my opinion and I would not take it to the bank either:)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hopefully just pretty to look at


Sounds good, and likely accurate, to me.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Dr. Lyons said tonight that the CV Wave have "no chance of developing".
and they said the titanic would'nt sink too one time
Quoting WeatherStudent:


I guess we better believe him, since he has a ''Ph.D'' in tropical meteorology. :)
Education

B.S., M.S. and Ph.D. in Meteorology, University of Hawaii

Awards & Accreditations

Fellow of the American Meteorological Society
Adjunct Professor Texas A&M University
Published more than 20 papers in scientific journals
Written more than 40 technical reports and articles for the National Weather Service and the Navy
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Dr. Lyons said tonight that the CV Wave have "no chance of developing".



I guess we better believe him, since he has a ''Ph.D'' in tropical meteorology. :)


He's just one resource. I do listen to what he says but I don't take his word to the bank. He can be wrong just like everyone else.

Having said that, I think we are still a week or two away from our first storm. That is just my opinion and I would not take it to the bank either:)


Steve Lyons isn't allowed to be wrong, he is a former aggie prof. (j/k)

Like beell is saying. Do not be surprised if they both look like a patch of cloud, nothingmore, in 24 hours.
2337. ededed
Marco probably would've been like what Carlos is right now if it had gotten more time over the water. They're both puny storms.
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "ISANG" has accelerated as it continues to move northwestward.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
===================================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Isang located at 14.7°N 127.4°E or420 kms east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 km/h (30 knots).

Additional Information
=======================
Meanwhile, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated at 440 kms West of Dagupan, Pangasinan (16.0°N, 116.6°E). This disturbance will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional rains over the western section of Southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
D-MAX tonight is huge in determining weather or not it has a chance. Right now it seems that the CV wave has grown in size a bit. In the morning if this "Wave" is still looking good, Lions may change his mind.
Quoting hunkerdown:
Education

B.S., M.S. and Ph.D. in Meteorology, University of Hawaii

Awards & Accreditations

Fellow of the American Meteorological Society
Adjunct Professor Texas A&M University
Published more than 20 papers in scientific journals
Written more than 40 technical reports and articles for the National Weather Service and the Navy


I rest my case. The guy is clearly a walking genius.
Lets see if we can get this baby up at 6:03 PM EDT! GO ENDEAVOUR!!!!!!
IMO We will have ANNA by August 7
they need too wake up they need too launch this in the AM 1st thing not in the PM wish nevere works out has you can see they need too wake up and o it 1st thing in the AM not in the PM



wake up * NASA


Quoting Tazmanian:
they need too wake up they need too launch this in the AM 1st thing not in the PM wish nevere works out has you can see they need too wake up and o it 1st thing in the AM not in the PM



wake up * NASA




Extremely impossible, due to orbital mechanics. Now if it was a non-ISS mission like the last one, they have a launch window of 3 hours or more. NASA knows what their doing. And it was supposet to launch in the early morning back in June before the GUCP scrubs.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - While most of the Atlantic basin remained quiet on Tuesday, some forecasters said a large tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic appeared to be slowly organizing into what could become the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season's next tropical depression or first storm.

"Several forecast models do now suggest that some development will take place with the wave over the next few days. The bottom line is that while conditions are not ideal, this is the first wave in a couple weeks that has had any chance of developing," Stephen Strum, Frontier Weather Inc's president and lead meteorologist, said in a morning report.

Strum added that a long-term track was pure speculation at this point.

"Once you get to the middle of July, you start to see the wave activity become a little more active, and the waves that come off Africa have a better chance to develop because the water is now warm enough between the Atlantic and the Caribbean to support the waves. Prior to mid-July the water is just too cool there, so they all just sputter and die," Strum told Reuters.

"These waves start to come off about every three days now. We'll start to see more activity going forward from this point on, which is normal, just from a climatologically typical pattern," Strum said.

Forecaster AccuWeather.com said there were currently no tropical systems across the Atlantic basin and no development expected at least through Wednesday.

The forecaster said, however, it was also tracking three tropical waves.

A tropical wave moving over the Lesser Antilles Tuesday was moving into warmer water, but strong wind shear over the Caribbean would likely prevent the wave from becoming better organized beyond Wednesday, it said.

A wave located over Guatemala and southeastern Mexico was likely to move into the eastern Pacific over the next day or two, AccuWeather.com said.

Natural gas traders linked part of a rise in prices early Tuesday to the stir in tropical activity. Natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5 percent early Tuesday to as high as $3.44 per million British thermal units.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

There has been one tropical depression so far this season.

The first named storm of the season will be Ana.

Tropical storms pack maximum sustained winds ranging from 39 to 73 miles per hour.

(Reporting by Eileen Moustakis; Additional reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Walter Bagley)


© Thomson Reuters 2009 All rights reserved
2346. JRRP

Tropical Atlantic
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and they said the titanic would'nt sink too one time


Steve Lyons said that? Yeah he probably did, he's pretty old
Hey kids...checking in after our journey - and i have about 7 thousand pages to read back. I saw the w/c yesterday after our tv was hookedup and said nothing was going on...

Updates?
Quoting melwerle:
Hey kids...checking in after our journey - and i have about 7 thousand pages to read back. I saw the w/c yesterday after our tv was hookedup and said nothing was going on...

Updates?


Hey there, Mel.
Quoting melwerle:
Hey kids...checking in after our journey - and i have about 7 thousand pages to read back. I saw the w/c yesterday after our tv was hookedup and said nothing was going on...

Updates?


Longtime no see Mel...
Quoting melwerle:
Hey kids...checking in after our journey - and i have about 7 thousand pages to read back. I saw the w/c yesterday after our tv was hookedup and said nothing was going on...

Updates?


Tropical Update
You can go back to previous entries


Meteosat 4 km IR4 Floater
(CIRA Personnel Only)
The eye of Carlos is beginning to clear up again, and he can intensify a bit more. He is extremely small at the moment and I'm starting to wonder how much more his circulation can tighten up before Westerly Flow aloft tears him apart.


Quoting TheWeatherMan504:


Longtime no see Mel...

Long drive across - longer than i tought and i am not 22 anymore....makes a diff
Quoting melwerle:

Long drive across - longer than i tought and i am not 22 anymore....makes a diff


Yea I hear ya. Did you take I-10 all the way?
Quoting melwerle:

Long drive across - longer than i tought and i am not 22 anymore....makes a diff


???
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Nuttin, yet lol
00Z GFS moves the CATL wave toward the northern lesser antilles

...while 00Z CMC moves it toward the central lesser antilles

No way - i didn't want to do the southern route for some reason...i went through atlanta then through ark, ala, ok, tx, nm, ar and ca

We went from Gallup to San Diego in one day. I was wiped. Only really bad weather day with all the kids and dogs and bird happened in Ark = terrible weather - July 4 - the fireworks were still going off with the lightning and thunder and the dogs were flipping out
Quoting melwerle:
No way - i didn't want to do the southern route for some reason...i went through atlanta then through ark, ala, ok, tx, nm, ar and ca

We went from Gallup to San Diego in one day. I was wiped. Only really bad weather day with all the kids and dogs and bird happened in Ark = terrible weather - July 4 - the fireworks were still going off with the lightning and thunder and the dogs were flipping out


OMG... Lightning and Fireworks? I bet that was cool to watch. But hows LA? Is it better than than the East Coast?
Hokay. Was gonna ask about the FujiwharaEffect causing HurricaneCarlos to spin up Invest96E. And between the time it took to jump between the NavyInvest page and the NationalHurricaneCenter page, 96E had become TropicalDepressionFive-E (aka TD05E).

Now it looks like TD05E is gonna be rapidly spun up into TropicalStormDolores by sucking power from Carlos. Two hurricanes heading for Hawaii?
Or is TD05E still too far away from HurricaneCarlos (guesstimating ~900NauticalMiles) for the FujiwharaEffect to come into play?
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:


OMG... Lightning and Fireworks? I bet that was cool to watch. But hows LA? Is it better than than the East Coast?

Just different. I have been here for a few days - lived here forever before then (with the exceptiion of the last four years). I will miss the tstorms, the rain, the crickets. I left a note on our porch about our resident toad..i will miss the wildlife. When i left our home, and it was and is for sale, i left a note about my sneakers on the porch.

Our house wss built solid there. So far since we have been home, we have had A screwed up a/c, our tub leaks, my uncle died while we were en rout ,his wife was dx'd days later with cancer ofhe everything.

Just send goodd ju-ju our way. We need it.
Quoting melwerle:

Just different. I have been here for a few days - lived here forever before then (with the exceptiion of the last four years). I will miss the tstorms, the rain, the crickets. I left a note on our porch about our resident toad..i will miss the wildlife. When i left our home, and it was and is for sale, i left a note about my sneakers on the porch.

Our house wss built solid there. So far since we have been home, we have had A screwed up a/c, our tub leaks, my uncle died while we were en rout ,his wife was dx'd days later with cancer ofhe everything.

Just send goodd ju-ju our way. We need it.



Why did you move to LA anyway? Is it better? And I'm sorry to hear about your loss I hope everything gets better for you...

Ohh and I'll send you good Ju-Ju. lol

Homesick 504.my whole famiiy is here.

I just hope my frog is okay and no one suffers. And no one gets banned.

oh..and whirled peas.




Quoting melwerle:
Homesick 504.my whole famiiy is here.

I just hope my frog is okay and no one suffers. And no one gets banned.

oh..and whirled peas.






I can understand being homesick, been there done that. I hope everything works out in California though.
Part of the PR NWS Discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST WED JUL 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH HAZE/DUST AND GUSTY
WINDS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY AND LAST INTO FRIDAY. NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. A MORE MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.


...

00Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TRUE MOIST TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE AND A
HEALTHY LOOKING WAVE CROSSING THE REGION MONDAY THAT JUST EXITED THE
AFRICAN COAST THIS MORNING. MODELS DONT DO MUCH WITH THIS WAVE AT
THIS POINT IN TERMS OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
MORE CLIMO NUMBERS FOR SAT AND NEXT WEEK SIGNALING A WETTER PATTERN
BUT CAP POPS AT 50% DUE TO LOCAL POLICY.
New strong wave has come off :



Something in the air?
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION
15:00 PM JST July 15 2009
============================================

Subject: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 14.4N 127.8E has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving north-northwest at 12 knots.
CARLOS REMAINS A COMPACT ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH A LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE FEATURES OUTSIDE OF A NEARLY UNIFORM RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 10 NM EYE. RECENT INFRARED IMAGES...
HOWEVER...INDICATE THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS RING
HAVE WARMED...HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS SYMMETRIC...AND HAVE SHRUNK
IN SIZE. IN SPITE OF THIS...DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 FROM BOTH SAB
AND TAFB SUPPORT AND INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

Ooooh, Annular hurricane.

OF NOTE...WITH AN INTENSITY OF 90 KT...CARLOS HAS BECOME THE
STRONGEST HURRICANE SO FAR SOUTH IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SINCE
RELIABLE DATA RECORDS BEGAN IN 1966.

Seems it's going to go on a weakening trend now, but considering how small it is, might come apart all together fairly quickly.

ADT's definitely showing a fast weakening trend.

I found this interesting paper about DEBBIE a lot of months ago, but I have wanted to read it carefully before saying something. This one of the most interesting tropical cyclones ever developed in the Atlantic Basin. Its structure were very well organized before reaching open waters of the Atlantic Ocean, while it was yet well inland Africa. It only took 48 hours to reach hurricane strenght since it touch the sea. Moreover, it could reach Ireland keeping hurricane force & structure, before making an extratropical transition.

Here is an exceptional paper about it, in PDF: AN INCIPIENT HURRICANE NEAR THE WEST AFRICAN COAST
Link

I would like to know your thoughts about it. Thanks!
7.8 Earthquake hits New Zealand...
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1144 PM HST TUE JUL 14 2009

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI ADVISORY

A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE
AT 1143 PM HST.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 1123 PM HST 14 JUL 2009
COORDINATES - 46.1 SOUTH 166.3 EAST
LOCATION - OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND N.Z.
MAGNITUDE - 7.8 MOMENT

EVALUATION

THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HAS ISSUED A NON-EXPANDING
REGIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING FOR A PART OF THE PACIFIC NEAR THE
EARTHQUAKE. BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA THERE IS NO DESTRUCTIVE
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

HOWEVER... SOME COASTAL AREAS IN HAWAII COULD EXPERIENCE SMALL
NON-DESTRUCTIVE SEA LEVEL CHANGES AND STRONG OR UNUSUAL CURRENTS
LASTING UP TO SEVERAL HOURS. THE ESTIMATED TIME SUCH EFFECTS
MIGHT BEGIN IS

1107 AM HST WED 15 JUL 2009
Civil Defence officials concerned by widely varying measurements of a big quake in Fiordland tonight said they were issuing a "potential tsunami" warning in Southland.

"We've had big differences in the measurements of the quake, ranging from 6.6 by GNS Science, to 8.2 by a tsunami warning centre in Hawaii - we're issuing a precautionary message," said an emergency management spokesman in Wellington.

People ran from restaurants in Queenstown as buildings shook, and lights and phone lines went down.

...Link
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
352 am EDT Wednesday Jul 15 2009

Tuesday...time to look to the east!!! global models (gfs, ecmwf)
have been persistent in developing a rather healthy tropical wave
over the western Atlantic just off Africa. Previous run of both, GFS
and ECMWF, developed a cyclonic circulation with this system by the
time it reaches the southeastern Bahamas, then recurved it northward
around the periphery of the Atlantic ridge. However, latest runs
of these models push the system further westward and bring it
rather close to South Florida (too close for comfort) before
recurving. While this is still too far in the future and the
models are bound to change many times, it is not out of the realm
of possibilities as we enter the active portion of the Atlantic
hurricane season, and it bears watching.
morning
this morning the tropical atlantichas three disturbances. at 40w 25w and 18w . none of these systems are showing any signs of development. the enviroment in the catl and the eatl is very dry and stable. this is the only inhibiting factor for cyclogenesis. shear is forecast to be low for the next few days, while the ssst are minimal for development. it appears from sat pics this morning that the waves east of the disturbance at 40w will catcch up,with it and form a one big disturbance. whether this will form into a cyclone down the road is very uncertain.none of the models are hinting of development which i suspect will be slow to occur as the complex system moves west even if this system does not develop before reaching the island chain it will bring unsettled weather to the islands by monday next week
NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING SUMMARY FOR AUSTRALIA NUMBER 1

Issued by the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (JATWC) at 08:31 PM EST

on Wednesday 15 July 2009


********************************************************************************

TSUNAMI SOURCE:


An undersea earthquake of magnitude 7.9 has occurred at 07:22 PM EST on

Wednesday 15 July 2009 at 45.960S , 166.470E near OFF W. COAST OF S. ISLAND,

N.Z..


Sea level observations have confirmed a tsunami has been generated.


********************************************************************************

NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING STATUS SUMMARY:


Victoria Marine Warning issued 1028Z Wed 15 Jul 2009

New South Wales Marine Warning issued 1024Z Wed 15 Jul 2009

Tasmania Marine Warning issued 1017Z Wed 15 Jul 2009

Lord Howe Island Land Warning issued 1005Z Wed 15 Jul 2009

National Watch Bulletin issued 0946Z Wed 15 Jul 2009


********************************************************************************

ADVICE:


People in areas with threat of land inundation and flooding are strongly

advised by emergency authorities to go to higher ground or at least one

kilometre inland.


In areas with a threat to the marine environment only, emergency authorities

advise people to get out of the water and move away from the immediate water’s

edge of harbours, coastal estuaries, rock platforms, and beaches.


Refer to individual State and Territory tsunami warnings and watches issued by

the JATWC for more detailed information.


Listen for any further advice from your local emergency service


Tsunami waves are more powerful than the same size beach waves, with the first

wave not necessarily being the largest.

the MSLP across the catl and eatl are stable at the moment which is an indication that development will be slow to occur.QS this morning showed no signs of any llc in any of these disturbances
Let's hope there isn't a tsunami...
incredible how fast the info gets around about the tidal wave love the web
Crown Weather

I am closely monitoring the eastern Atlantic, which is dotted by three separate tropical disturbances. One near 40 West Longitude, the second near 27 West Longitude and a third near 18 West Longitude. It appears, based on satellite imagery, that the two disturbances behind the first are moving quicker and I would suspect in the next couple of days that all three of these disturbances will try to congeal into one identifiable tropical disturbance and this seems to be what the GFS model has been trying to say all along.

A quikscat satellite pass shows that there is no low level circulation with any of the disturbances and that all of the cyclonic turning is in the mid-levels. As for possible development, I think at the very most, slow development seems to be the way to go. There is dry, stable air to the north of this 3 pronged system, however, environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for development for at least the next few days as a upper level high pressure system builds over this area and then moves in tandem with this system.
everyone is guessing what will happen the next few days in the atl gfs included. my guess is no development this time
TSUNAMI WARNING NUMBER 1 FOR LORD HOWE ISLAND
Issued by the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre [JATWC] at 08:05 PM EST
on Wednesday 15 July 2009

********************************************************************************

TSUNAMI THREAT TO LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS AND THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT

********************************************************************************
SUMMARY:

Tsunami warning for LORD HOWE ISLAND.

An undersea earthquake of magnitude 7.9 [Latitude 45.960S Longitude 166.470E ]
has occurred at 07:22 PM EST on Wednesday 15 July 2009 off W. COAST OF S.
ISLAND, N.Z.

For low-lying coastal areas there is a threat of MAJOR LAND INUNDATION,
FLOODING, DANGEROUS WAVES AND STRONG OCEAN CURRENTS for several hours from
09:30 pm [EST] Wednesday.

People in affected areas are strongly advised by the LORD HOWE ISLAND POLICE to
go to higher ground or at least one kilometre inland.

For all threatened areas, people are advised to get out of the water and move
away from the immediate water’s edge.
The only warning I can find from New South Wales section of the BOM
just web hear-say but the have been water level changes seen down in n zealand
2388. crownwx
Our tropical weather discussion: http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325
2389. IKE
Extended discussion from Tallahassee,FL....

".LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY).
AN OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED INITIALLY BY A LARGE WEST COAST RIDGE
...A TROUGH OVER ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE ADJACENT WRN ATLC.
THE EARLY PERIOD SHOWS THAT WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY
FURTHER...THE LATTER AIDED BY A DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND BY SAT WILL
EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH KICKING THE ATLC
RIDGE FURTHER EWD. ON SUNDAY TROUGH MOVES EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS
AND PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST INTO CWA. ASSOCD UPPER
LOW OVER NRN GREAT LAKES MEANDERS EASTWARD. OVER WEEKEND...THIS
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN A COLD FRONT AND DRAG IT SEWD
ALLOWING IT TO SURGE TOWARD THE GULF COAST. MODEL SUITE CONTINUES IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING FRONT INTO LOCAL AREA BY
SAT AND STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN FL THRU THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS PUSHES A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN FL.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE AVAILABLE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONT/TROUGH
LATE FRI THRU WEEKEND.

BY MONDAY...THE MODELS KICK FRONT SWD WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN
ITS WAKE ESPECIALLY ALA/GA CWA. HOWEVER WITH INCREASING LACK OF
UPPER SUPPORT.. FRONT THEN STALLS CLOSE ENOUGH TO FL CWA TO KEEP
LIMITED MOISTURE IN AREA (MAINLY ERN FL/ADJACENT GA)INTO WED. BY WED
FRONT WASHES OUT. ALL THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR
MID JULY HOWEVER MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS.

WILL GO WITH MID-HIGH SCT POP FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...THEN WDLY SCT-LO
SCT POPS SUN NIGHT THRU WED. PERIOD BEGINS WITH MIN TEMPS IN LOW 70S
AND ABOVE CLIMO (68-69) THEN IN WAKE OF FRONT AND WITH INFLUX OF
DRIER AIR...MINS DROP TO BELOW CLIMO SAT NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT BEFORE
INCHING BACK UP TO CLIMO TUES NIGHT. WITH CLOUD COVER MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 80S OR BELOW CLIMO (AROUND 90) UNTIL
RETURNING TO CLIMO ON WED."
2390. IKE
From the Birmingham,AL. extended discussion...

"IN THE LONGER TERM...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES AS WELL AS MANY
OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT THERE WILL BE A DECENT COOL DOWN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. IN FACT...THE GFS IS
SUGGESTING THAT BHM WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS
WITH LOWS APPROACHING 60. THE COOLEST MORNING IS LOOKING TO BE
EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY MORNING...EITHER WAY...IT WILL DEFINITELY BE
NOTICEABLE. THIS COOLER AND SEEMINGLY DRIER AIR WILL BE AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.".........


That is cool for Birmingham in July!



Meteosat 4 km IR4 Floater
(CIRA Personnel Only)
55-mile storm barrier proposed for Texas
'Ike Dike' could cost up to $4 billion and take 20 years to build

GALVESTON, Texas - It has been dubbed the "Ike Dike" a 55-mile barrier, 17 feet high, that would be built along the Texas Gulf Coast to fend off the sort of devastating flooding inflicted by last year's Hurricane Ike.

The grand idea for what would probably be the biggest seawall in the nation faces some major hurdles itself, chief among them a price tag of up to $4 billion.

But with thousands of people still in temporary housing 10 months after the storm, many say it is time to find a permanent means of protecting Galveston and the rest of the Houston metropolitan area.

"Every time you knock me down, I will get back up and rebuild my city," said William Merrell, the Texas A&M professor in Galveston who dreamed up the idea. After Ike, "I thought, 'How can we keep from doing it again?'"

Merrell's solution is to extend Galveston's existing 10-mile seawall %u2014 first built after the Great Storm of 1900 killed at least 6,000 people with a series of walls and retractable floodgates that would extend from one end of Galveston Bay to the other. The gates could be closed to block the entrance to the bay when a storm approaches.

Modeled after Dutch system
The project is modeled after the world's largest flood protection system, in the Netherlands. The details are still being worked out, but the idea has already won the support of some members of a state panel studying disaster preparedness.

Project backers, who hope to secure federal funding for the barrier, say it would save homes and lives among the Houston metropolitan area's 5.7 million residents. They also say it would help protect the nation's biggest, most vital concentration of oil refineries and chemical plants.

But detractors say the dike could inflict environmental damage, obstruct the ocean views of some residents and end up trapping floodwaters in the bay. They also point out that massive government projects are often beset with huge cost overruns, delays and bureaucracy.

Even if the project were to gain approval, construction could take a generation. A proposal of this scale would have to be built by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which could take three or four years just to complete a feasibility study. Congress would then need to approve funding for the project. And it could take 20 years to build it, said Col. David Weston, commanding officer of the Corps' Galveston district.

Texas isn't the only place considering battling nature with brute engineering force: Earlier this year, engineers floated a proposal to build giant movable barriers to protect New York City from hurricanes and rising sea levels caused by global warming.

Ike's storm surge of up to 20 feet shattered thousands of homes on Galveston Island and nearby areas. It also fouled farmland and ranches with saltwater.

"In order to justify something like this, it just can't be vacation homes," Merrell said. "It has to be looking at protecting the entire bay, people's lives and all the infrastructure."

The barrier would most likely be built of concrete. Most sections would be on land, running between the beach and the oceanfront homes and businesses. But the floodgates would be out in the water, across various openings in the coastline.

Protect petrochemical complex?
The Ike Dike would be justified simply by the protection it would offer the $15 billion petrochemical complex along the Houston Ship Channel, said Bob Mitchell, president of the Bay Area Houston Economic Partnership. The complex provides much of the country's fuel and industrial chemicals.

"If it were to flood there, you would not bring back those facilities for at least six months," Mitchell said.

Bill King, a member of the state task force looking at disaster recovery, said the Ike Dike's scope seemed unrealistic to him until he weighed its cost against the more than $29 billion in damage Ike caused in Texas.

"I've become more convinced it's at least something we need to take a hard look at," said King, former mayor of the Galveston Bay community of Kemah.

Environmental concerns
But King and others also worry about how the Ike Dike might affect fish migration and salinity levels in Galveston Bay.

Mary Kelly, vice president of rivers and deltas at the Environmental Defense Fund in Austin, suggested authorities are going about it the wrong way. She said smaller levees should be constructed to protect critical structures like petrochemical plants, and the state should rethink where it allows people to build homes on the Texas coast.

"We really need a public debate on what realistically we ought to be doing along the coastline in terms of discouraging people from living in vulnerable areas. We can't keep paying these billions of dollars in damages on these losses," said Kelly, who is also a member of the state task force looking at disaster recovery.

Phil Bedient, director of the Severe Storm Prediction, Education and Evacuation from Disasters Center at Rice University, said authorities should consider a more natural approach - letting marshes and barrier islands re-establish themselves to help hold back floodwaters. But Bedient said the Ike Dike merits further study.
2394. JRRP
..TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NEAR THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 23W-28W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM
CIMSS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
38W-40W
2395. WxLogic
Good morning...
2396. IKE
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning;


Tropical Update

Atlantic broad area of low pressure

Northern Gulf Low


I noticed not many of the northern gulf-coast weather offices are mentioning anything possibly spinning up along the NE GOM area.

I see some models hinting at it. It'll be interesting to see what happens by late this weekend.


Meteosat Long-Wave Difference (SAL)
(CIRA Personnel Only)
Quoting IKE:


I noticed not many of the northern gulf-coast weather offices are mentioning anything possibly spinning up along the NE GOM area.

I see some models hinting at it. It'll be interesting to see what happens by late this weekend.



hehe they don't want to talk about it because the 2009 National Gov's Convention starts in Biloxi on Fri and runs till next Tues.

could you imagine if they had to evac all those ppl out?
2399. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN



Not sure the EATL waves are going to amount to much. The first one that was near 35W yesterday, looks a lot weaker. The one to it's east has diminished some over night. Another one is now emerging off of Africa.

They all seem to diminish as they move west.
2400. IKE
2401. P451
New Zealand?

Link

Don't we have a fellow blogger from NZ?
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN



Not sure the EATL waves are going to amount to much. The first one that was near 35W yesterday, looks a lot weaker. The one to it's east has diminished some over night. Another one is now emerging off of Africa.

They all seem to diminish as they move west.
doing exactly as there surpose to most do fad after movin over open water



Meteosat 4 km IR4 Floater
(CIRA Personnel Only)
far east atlantic
Quoting IKE:


WOW! is that normal for the african dust to stretch that far our way?
2404. P451
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN



Not sure the EATL waves are going to amount to much. The first one that was near 35W yesterday, looks a lot weaker. The one to it's east has diminished some over night. Another one is now emerging off of Africa.

They all seem to diminish as they move west.



..POOF...

The only negative side is there has been no release of heat from the tropics. So when one does decide to get going, if it has the atmospheric support, it's going to REALLY take off I fear.
2405. IKE
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:


WOW! is that normal for the african dust to stretch that far our way?


That's rather high for that area...but they do get dust.
2406. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
doing exactly as there surpose to most do fad after movin over open water



Meteosat 4 km IR4 Floater
(CIRA Personnel Only)
far east atlantic


Agree it's normal...just the way some were jumping on the invest and yellow circle bandwagon the last 2 days...
2407. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST WED JUL 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH HAZE/DUST AND GUSTY
WINDS TO AFFECT THE REGION TODAY AND LAST INTO FRIDAY. NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. A MORE MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
2408. WxLogic
Will be interesting to see what will happen with the wave that just came out of Africa and our AOI. Definitely it was unable to maintain itself during the night time hours. The wave out of Africa appears to be moving a more quicker so these 2 could merge. Let's see what happens in 24HR with these 2. :)
2409. IKE
Looks like as the trough amplifies in the eastern USA, a strong, getting stronger, high will build in in the Atlantic and race these EATL waves W to WNW.

Islands may get needed rain....
it would have to be a lot more organized to get a yellow or any other colour circle for that matter that far out in east atl.
2411. IKE
6Z NOGAPS takes the vorticity of the EATL waves into the Caribbean....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it would have to be a lot more organized to get a yellow or any other colour circle for that matter that far out in east atl.


The Broad Area of Low Pressure over the Central Atlantic needs a jump start. The Jump Start just crossed the African Coastline this Morning it should reach the Broad Area of Low Pressure in 24 Hours...
2413. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:
Looks like as the trough amplifies in the eastern USA, a strong, getting stronger, high will build in in the Atlantic and race these EATL waves W to WNW.

Islands may get needed rain....


They sure do... I do remember the Haze/Dust caused by the SAL when I used to live in PR. Pretty horrible... it was so thick at times that you could see the shadows of planes contrails striking through the sky and good luck with any TSTM activity... anything that tried to form almost failed to develop 80% to 90% of the time.

RGB satellite do nicely show the leading edge of the SAL now approaching E DR.
i owe i owe so its off to work i go i will check back in at my break around 1030 edt and again at lunch at 12 see ya later tropical weather freaks
2415. IKE
Quoting WxLogic:


They sure do... I do remember the Haze/Dust caused by the SAL when I used to live in PR. Pretty horrible... it was so thick at times that you could see the shadows of planes contrails striking through the sky and good luck with any TSTM activity... anything that tried to form almost failed to develop 80% to 90% of the time.

RGB satellite do nicely show the leading edge of the SAL now approaching E DR.


I see it on satellite...

00Z GFS gets the CATL high up to around 1032 mb's...that is a strong high.
good morning everyone quickscat shows a surface spin at 10n 37w-38w
Link
ncep/emc cyclone track 2009071500 atlantic ocean basin model storm tracks
Link
2420. Ossqss
The quake did not produce much of a Tsunami from the statement fortunately.

A tsunami has been observed at the following sites:


Location Lat. Lon. Time Amplitude ------------------------ ----- ------ ------- -----------
JACKSON BAY, NZ 43.97S 168.62E 10:18 UTC 0.17M /0.5FT
2421. WxLogic
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i owe i owe so its off to work i go i will check back in at my break around 1030 edt and again at lunch at 12 see ya later tropical weather freaks


lol... l8r KOTG
Quoting IKE:


That's rather high for that area...but they do get dust.


Occasionally they make it to the states too. It looks like this SAL outbreak may just do that.
dust in prico means very little chance of rain go commonweatlth comets
2424. DVG
Had enough dust on my white grand am to wipe my finger and collect a sizeable amount off of it. In Jax Fla wsa about 94 I think.
Good Morning....All's quiet for now closer to home and the models, as noted by 456, are "looking" at the future in terms of possible development of the wave closer to the Islands and Gulf "low". The wave is more tangible and the "low" is an educated guess right now. As normal for this time of the year, going towards August, sheer has really dropped around the Islands and SE US and starting to drop in the Central Atlantic. Wife and the kids are going out of town this weekend [ :) ] so I'll be able to keep a close eye on the Gulf situation from the house in Tallahassee over the weekend with "unlimited" access to the family computer...Lol.....That one will all depend on whether an tangible remnant, if the front is developed enough, can linger in the Gulf for a bit.....I'm just looking at a rain/flooding event for the Northern Florida area right now if the front stalls in our region.
000
WHXX01 KMIA 151243
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1243 UTC WED JUL 15 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES (EP052009) 20090715 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090715 1200 090716 0000 090716 1200 090717 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.6N 115.1W 16.0N 117.4W 17.2N 120.1W 18.3N 122.9W
BAMD 14.6N 115.1W 15.8N 117.2W 17.0N 119.5W 18.2N 121.9W
BAMM 14.6N 115.1W 15.9N 117.3W 17.1N 119.6W 18.4N 122.2W
LBAR 14.6N 115.1W 15.6N 117.2W 16.9N 120.1W 18.2N 123.5W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 42KTS 43KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 42KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090717 1200 090718 1200 090719 1200 090720 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 125.8W 21.8N 131.3W 24.8N 136.3W 27.8N 139.9W
BAMD 19.4N 124.5W 22.3N 129.4W 26.4N 132.5W 32.2N 133.4W
BAMM 19.8N 125.0W 22.8N 130.4W 26.5N 134.4W 30.9N 135.9W
LBAR 19.6N 127.0W 22.6N 132.7W 27.6N 134.6W 34.8N 133.5W
SHIP 37KTS 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 37KTS 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 115.1W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 113.5W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 112.0W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM

2427. IKE
EAST-PAC now up to the "D" storm.

Atlantic still looking for the A.


Umbridge is here!

And on the same day Harry Potter comes out to the pictures.

That's some coincidence. :P
and its olny july lol
Quoting Cotillion:
Umbridge is here!

And on the same day Harry Potter comes out to the pictures.

That's some coincidence. :P


LOL...
I will see you guys later
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI

AOI
Quoting TheWeatherMan504:


LOL...


Yup; had to drop off my 16 year old at the movies last night for the opening at Midnight and pick her up at 2:30....A little sleepy this morning.........
Wow! Thanks! Would never have known that unless you posted it.

Quoting IKE:
EAST-PAC now up to the "D" storm.

Atlantic still looking for the A.


i can thanks EL Nino for this
Let the reader note that Dr. Masters latest blog concerning sea level rise--with it's dramatic graph of a human figure standing next to an awesome and precipitous change in sea level in the closing decades of the 21st century--cites as a reference an article by Rahmstorf. Click on the link provided one notes that the article is entitled "A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise." The use of the term "semi-empirical" in much scientific work is quite often little more than a synonym for guess work and reminds the educated reader that the 18th century use of the word empirical was entirely pejorative--as in pulling something from a place where the sun doesn't shine. But more than that, if you click on the second technical comment you will read that Rahmstorf's method doesn't produce a "robust" regression coefficient. The commentators propose a different method similar to what is commonly used in econometrics. The irony here is that, judging by the spectacular failure of the big economic brains to predict the economic collapse that occurred several months ago, one should place any confidence in an econometric method. Perhaps one should but it becomes clear as one "follows the links" on global warming in general, there's a lot of interpretation going on that stretches the limit of the data. I also remind the reader that whatever the quality of today's sea level data, such quality must fall off sharply when one goes back in time even a few decades. According to Dr. Masters, "The authors cautioned that "substantial uncertainties" exist in their estimates, and that the cost of building higher levees to protect against sea level rise is not trivial." "Statistically substantial uncertainties" are often accompanied by substantial uncertainties in the error bars themselves which means that all of the ranges given may be totally off. The author's work may be consistent with zero change in sea-level in the next 100 years or even negative changes. Indeed, the ranges given by Jevrejeva (0.6 - 1.9 ft) are outside the ranges of Pfeffer (2.6 ft - 6.6ft). Perhaps if Jevrejeva had been a teensy bit more optimistic he might have included 0ft within his range? Not by fudging but compared the quality of physical data one encounters in other branches of the physical sciences (like estimates of the velocity of light, for example), perhaps the author should place less confidence in his model and simply say that we really don't know enough to definitively exclude it? When Dr. Masters says, in reference to Pheffer's results, "Their estimates came from a detailed analysis of the processes the IPCC said were understood too poorly to model" he indavertantly illustrates another problem with climate research: the mixing of modeling and data. Dynamical modeling is fraught with difficult mathematical problems even with today's powerful computers. Much of the modeling involves fluid dynamics and if one looks at other areas where this is used--which aren't freighted with the politics of climate change--one will get a sobering view of just how hard it is. The free admixture of results--now from models, now from "data"--that is so common in the literature of climate change should raise red flags. Such admixture is also common in economics and I'll leave it to the reader to decide whether, given the powerful models and impressive mathematical apparatus they use, they've come close to predicting, say, the business cycle--the ability to do so being something of obvious concern and benefit to all.
2438. IKE
Quoting bdkennedy1:
Wow! Thanks! Would never have known that unless you posted it.



You're welcome.....
Just checking in so how are the 3 tropical waves doing this morning? Gave they *poofed* yet?
From Crown Weather:
. . . am closely monitoring the eastern Atlantic, which is dotted by three separate tropical disturbances. One near 40 West Longitude, the second near 27 West Longitude and a third near 18 West Longitude. It appears, based on satellite imagery, that the two disturbances behind the first are moving quicker and I would suspect in the next couple of days that all three of these disturbances will try to congeal into one identifiable tropical disturbance and this seems to be what the GFS model has been trying to say all along.

What?!
2441. IKE
Quoting Chicklit:
From Crown Weather:
. . . am closely monitoring the eastern Atlantic, which is dotted by three separate tropical disturbances. One near 40 West Longitude, the second near 27 West Longitude and a third near 18 West Longitude. It appears, based on satellite imagery, that the two disturbances behind the first are moving quicker and I would suspect in the next couple of days that all three of these disturbances will try to congeal into one identifiable tropical disturbance and this seems to be what the GFS model has been trying to say all along.

What?!


Triplets will become one and move to the west...to WNW.

Quoting DeVryguy:
Let the reader note that Dr. Masters latest blog concerning sea level rise--with it's dramatic graph of a human figure standing next to an awesome and precipitous change in sea level in the closing decades of the 21st century--cites as a reference an article by Rahmstorf. Click on the link provided one notes that the article is entitled "A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise." The use of the term "semi-empirical" in much scientific work is quite often little more than a synonym for guess work and reminds the educated reader that the 18th century use of the word empirical was entirely pejorative--as in pulling something from a place where the sun doesn't shine. But more than that, if you click on the second technical comment you will read that Rahmstorf's method doesn't produce a "robust" regression coefficient. The commentators propose a different method similar to what is commonly used in econometrics. The irony here is that, judging by the spectacular failure of the big economic brains to predict the economic collapse that occurred several months ago, one should place any confidence in an econometric method. Perhaps one should but it becomes clear as one "follows the links" on global warming in general, there's a lot of interpretation going on that stretches the limit of the data. I also remind the reader that whatever the quality of today's sea level data, such quality must fall off sharply when one goes back in time even a few decades. According to Dr. Masters, "The authors cautioned that "substantial uncertainties" exist in their estimates, and that the cost of building higher levees to protect against sea level rise is not trivial." "Statistically substantial uncertainties" are often accompanied by substantial uncertainties in the error bars themselves which means that all of the ranges given may be totally off. The author's work may be consistent with zero change in sea-level in the next 100 years or even negative changes. Indeed, the ranges given by Jevrejeva (0.6 - 1.9 ft) are outside the ranges of Pfeffer (2.6 ft - 6.6ft). Perhaps if Jevrejeva had been a teensy bit more optimistic he might have included 0ft within his range? Not by fudging but compared the quality of physical data one encounters in other branches of the physical sciences (like estimates of the velocity of light, for example), perhaps the author should place less confidence in his model and simply say that we really don't know enough to definitively exclude it? When Dr. Masters says, in reference to Pheffer's results, "Their estimates came from a detailed analysis of the processes the IPCC said were understood too poorly to model" he indavertantly illustrates another problem with climate research: the mixing of modeling and data. Dynamical modeling is fraught with difficult mathematical problems even with today's powerful computers. Much of the modeling involves fluid dynamics and if one looks at other areas where this is used--which aren't freighted with the politics of climate change--one will get a sobering view of just how hard it is. The free admixture of results--now from models, now from "data"--that is so common in the literature of climate change should raise red flags. Such admixture is also common in economics and I'll leave it to the reader to decide whether, given the powerful models and impressive mathematical apparatus they use, they've come close to predicting, say, the business cycle--the ability to do so being something of obvious concern and benefit to all.


That has to be the smartest post on the subject that I have seen on this Blog in the 3 Years I have been here.
Quoting IKE:


Triplets will become one and move to the west...to WNW.



I am finding that hard to believe.
More believable that everything will fall apart and one tiny little LLC will survive from it all. And as we all know, it only takes one spin in the right conditions to create havoc. So let's hope it's just a rainmaker. Darn. This is nasty business. The Islands need the rain, that's all. Batten down the hatches, Mates!
Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:49 PM GMT on July 13, 2009

"Wednesday, I'll take a look at the Atlantic hurricane forecast for the remainder of July. There's currently nothing out there worth discussing--will it stay that way?"

Looking forward to seeing what Jeff has to say today.
2445. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:
Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:49 PM GMT on July 13, 2009

"Wednesday, I'll take a look at the Atlantic hurricane forecast for the remainder of July. There's currently nothing out there worth discussing--will it stay that way?"

Looking forward to seeing what Jeff has to say today.


Let me guess...I see very little for the next 7 days. I give it a 20% chance of a system by the end of July.

Quoting IKE:


Let me guess...I see very little for the next 7 days. I give it a 20% chance of a system by the end of July.



I'm going to go with 50%, and 100% in August.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I'm going to go with 50%, and 100% in August.
come on now Orca don't be such a downcaster for August.....lol
Morning Ike, Orca. How are ya'll this beautiful Alabama morning?
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
come on now Orca don't be such a downcaster for August.....lol


ROFL.. just betting with the averages.. mind you..if I had done that with the first half.. I would be broke by now.
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Morning Ike, Orca. How are ya'll this beautiful Alabama morning?


So far so good.. watching the Pacific.. watching NZ for after shocks.. reading Drudge and drinking coffee.

Then.. off to work :(
Quoting Orcasystems:


So far so good.. watching the Pacific.. watching NZ for after shocks.. reading Drudge and drinking coffee.

Then.. off to work :(
WORK ohh no can't use that word around me I'll melt. I'm just gonna sit here and play poker, drink coffee, and read, the posts all day. I hope
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
WORK ohh no can't use that word around me I'll melt. I'm just gonna sit here and play poker, drink coffee, and read, the posts all day. I hope


Thats what I do also.. I just change locations from home to work.
Follow the money. Fund Manager BlackRock is betting against global warming. This gentleman is on retainer (should be unbiased, BlackRock wants to make money whichever way the weather goes, they just need to know which way it is going!):

Judah Cohen, Ph.D.
Dr. Cohen joined AER as a staff scientist in 1998, having previously spent two years as a National Research Council Fellow at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and then two years as a research scientist at MIT's Parsons Laboratory. Cohen received his Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from Columbia University in 1994 and has since focused on conducting numerical experiments with global climate models and advanced statistical techniques to better understand climate variability and to improve climate prediction. In addition to his research interests, Cohen is leading AER's development of seasonal forecasts for commercial clients. A member of the American Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Union, Cohen has published over two dozen articles in their journals and others.

So...obviously qualified.

The article from Yahoo! Finance:

http://finance.yahoo.com/techticker/article/280504/Top-Manager-Sees-


Top Manager Sees "Huge Risk" in Alternative Energy as Proof of Global Warming Cools
Posted Jul 15, 2009 08:00am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities, Clean Tech
Related: XOM, FSLR, XLE, TAN, STP, PBW, IYE
Daniel Rice, manager of the BlackRock Energy & Resources Fund, is the best-performing U.S. equity fund manager of the past decade, according to Morningstar. He's also not afraid to speak his mind, especially when it comes to the subjects of global warming and alternative energy, as revealed in the accompanying video.

Rice paints a "pretty dire picture" of the whole alternative energy industry, with the possible exception of wind, based on the following:

* Global warming patterns have reversed in the past decade, Rice says, citing studies by meteorologist Dr. Judah Cohen, whom BlackRock has on retainer. Ten years is microscopic in geological terms but "you'd better hope global warming is caused by man-made [carbon dioxide] if you're investing in these sectors," he says. "I think that's a huge risk based on some of the evidence that's been coming out."
* Alternative energies are not economical without major government subsidies or a large enough carbon tax. The cap and trade legislation currently being debated is "not enough to do anything," Rice says. "All it does is provide Obama a pass to Copenhagen" where the U.N. is hosting a climate change conference in December.

More government subsidies for alternative energy could be forthcoming but "governments across the world are being stretched" by the economic crisis, Rice notes. "There's not a lot of excess money, excess credit, [and] not as much risk capital willing to go into these sector."

So unless the global warming patterns reverse and go higher again or the global economy makes a major recovery, Rice believes alternative energies like Exxon's algae fuel initiative will remain very much on the fringe, and investors in the space will face further disappointments.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Thats what I do also.. I just change locations from home to work.
I tried doing that but I drive for a living. I got a good hand went all in and dang near crashed my truck
Ike have you been getting these horrific afternoon thunderstorms over there? Had one yesterday about noon winds about 40mph. Assuming a possible cold front headiing through?
2457. IKE
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Ike have you been getting these horrific afternoon thunderstorms over there? Had one yesterday about noon winds about 40mph. Assuming a possible cold front headiing through?


Got nothing yesterday or the day before at my house.
Quoting IKE:


Got nothing yesterday or the day before at my house.
Just typical summer storms then. I keep hearing talk of trailing end of a front with some possibilities of doing something in the GOM and saw a cluster of "clouds" at the MS/LA line and didn't know if it all had to do with that. Figured not because the storms were moving s-se. Thanks
Heck, a blog about possible development of all the hyped blobs in the ITCZ and tropical atlantic would be nice. If for no other reason than to align the blog with the content being discussed.
2460. IKE
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Just typical summer storms then. I keep hearing talk of trailing end of a front with some possibilities of doing something in the GOM and saw a cluster of "clouds" at the MS/LA line and didn't know if it all had to do with that. Figured not because the storms were moving s-se. Thanks


That would be probably Sunday-Monday of next week time frame.
Well...I guess things are a little better...96E is now TD 5E (probably becoming Dolores), Carlos is still a hurricane, a thrid tropical wave will emerge w/ the 1st and 2nd wave and maybe develop???? I guess things are a little better?
Quoting DeVryguy:
Let the reader note that Dr. Masters latest blog concerning sea level rise--with it's dramatic graph of a human figure standing next to an awesome and precipitous change in sea level in the closing decades of the 21st century--cites as a reference an article by Rahmstorf. Click on the link provided one notes that the article is entitled "A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise." The use of the term "semi-empirical" in much scientific work is quite often little more than a synonym for guess work and reminds the educated reader that the 18th century use of the word empirical was entirely pejorative--as in pulling something from a place where the sun doesn't shine. But more than that, if you click on the second technical comment you will read that Rahmstorf's method doesn't produce a "robust" regression coefficient. The commentators propose a different method similar to what is commonly used in econometrics. The irony here is that, judging by the spectacular failure of the big economic brains to predict the economic collapse that occurred several months ago, one should place any confidence in an econometric method. Perhaps one should but it becomes clear as one "follows the links" on global warming in general, there's a lot of interpretation going on that stretches the limit of the data. I also remind the reader that whatever the quality of today's sea level data, such quality must fall off sharply when one goes back in time even a few decades. According to Dr. Masters, "The authors cautioned that "substantial uncertainties" exist in their estimates, and that the cost of building higher levees to protect against sea level rise is not trivial." "Statistically substantial uncertainties" are often accompanied by substantial uncertainties in the error bars themselves which means that all of the ranges given may be totally off. The author's work may be consistent with zero change in sea-level in the next 100 years or even negative changes. Indeed, the ranges given by Jevrejeva (0.6 - 1.9 ft) are outside the ranges of Pfeffer (2.6 ft - 6.6ft). Perhaps if Jevrejeva had been a teensy bit more optimistic he might have included 0ft within his range? Not by fudging but compared the quality of physical data one encounters in other branches of the physical sciences (like estimates of the velocity of light, for example), perhaps the author should place less confidence in his model and simply say that we really don't know enough to definitively exclude it? When Dr. Masters says, in reference to Pheffer's results, "Their estimates came from a detailed analysis of the processes the IPCC said were understood too poorly to model" he indavertantly illustrates another problem with climate research: the mixing of modeling and data. Dynamical modeling is fraught with difficult mathematical problems even with today's powerful computers. Much of the modeling involves fluid dynamics and if one looks at other areas where this is used--which aren't freighted with the politics of climate change--one will get a sobering view of just how hard it is. The free admixture of results--now from models, now from "data"--that is so common in the literature of climate change should raise red flags. Such admixture is also common in economics and I'll leave it to the reader to decide whether, given the powerful models and impressive mathematical apparatus they use, they've come close to predicting, say, the business cycle--the ability to do so being something of obvious concern and benefit to all.


Bravo! (Throwing roses at you.) You put that all together so much better than I.
New to this, so any help would be appreciated. Have been reading this blog for several years. Lots of helpful information as we live on the AL coast and keep a close eye on the weather down here. Sometimes you guys/gals are a hoot!!!! Can someone give me the link to the Navy's page on Gulf Stream eddies? And the map showing where everyone lives? We are in Gulf Shores, AL. And extremely happy to be here.
Crown Weather Tropical Discussion for July 15, 2009: Link
/>Well...I guess things are a little better...96E is now TD 5E (probably becoming Dolores), Carlos is still a hurricane, a thrid tropical wave will emerge w/ the 1st and 2nd wave and maybe develop???? I guess things are a little better?Better? I don't get this,or what you are saying is better because we can track and analise more weather systems?
wow does dolores should be stronger than 40 mph on the update or higher cause look at it
We knew thirty years ago that the ozone layer was being depleted at the poles. Now the caps are melting. Whether ocean levels are rising or not is a technicality. What is important is chemical emissions controlled by humans are changing our atmosphere.
So talk around it all you want, make it a political issue, pride yourself on your cleverness at refuting arguments, the plain truth is we are altering our atmosphere, peeling the skin off of our planet, so to speak.
anyone have any idea if the tropical wave near the coast of africa will develop soon
tiny carlos is weakening
Hi Sefl...in about a week we will know. Until then, it's watch and wait.
Quoting atmoaggie:


Bravo! (Throwing roses at you.) You put that all together so much better than I.


DeVryGuy makes a valid point, but let's remember what the prediction was for loss of summer Arctic ice in 2006 vs today's prediction. In 2006 the range was between 75 to 100 years for total loss of summer Arctic ice extent. Today that prediction is 5 to 20 years. That's not the direction you want your incorrect computer models to go.
OFF TOPIC: I hope Joe B is correct in his Winter forecast for 2009-2010, because I'm in the Cold and Snowy section!:)Link
Hello all.

Tsunami warning for the marine environment for parts of NEW SOUTH WALES.

Threatened areas extend from Gabo Island to Seal Rocks including Batemans Bay,
Bellambi, Botany Bay, Gabo Island, Jervis Bay, Kiama, Merimbula, Montague
Island, Moruya, Moruya Heads, Narooma, Nelson Bay, Norah Head, Shell Harbour,
Sydney Harbour, Ulladulla and Wollongong.

Possibility of DANGEROUS WAVES, STRONG OCEAN CURRENTS AND SOME LOCALISED
OVERFLOW ONTO THE IMMEDIATE FORESHORE from now until 1:00am EST Thursday.

Although major evacuations are not required, people are advised to get out of
the water and move away from the immediate water's edge.

Next update will be issued by 01:14 AM EST on Thursday 16 July 2009
2478. Prgal
New blog.
The entire global warming scheme is politically driven. People, we are basing global warming on a 100 year data set. Thats absurd. We don't know what happenned 5000 years ago - and I don't want to hear about ice core samples. How do you determine what happenned in the sub tropical climates where there was no ice. The world is being brainwashed by the media and people like Al Gore. You know what, if big Al was so concerned with the changing climate, he would stop flying around in his private jet at 35 K feet. Whether you believe in evolution or Adam & Eve - there just isn't enough data to support whether or not the planet is warming or is it humanly induced.
Link

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2009jcap.html
new blog!!!
Quoting DeVryguy:
Let the reader note that Dr. Masters latest blog concerning sea level rise--with it's dramatic graph of a human figure standing next to an awesome and precipitous change in sea level in the closing decades of the 21st century--cites as a reference an article by Rahmstorf. Click on the link provided one notes that the article is entitled "A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise." The use of the term "semi-empirical" in much scientific work is quite often little more than a synonym for guess work and reminds the educated reader that the 18th century use of the word empirical was entirely pejorative--as in pulling something from a place where the sun doesn't shine. But more than that, if you click on the second technical comment you will read that Rahmstorf's method doesn't produce a "robust" regression coefficient. The commentators propose a different method similar to what is commonly used in econometrics. The irony here is that, judging by the spectacular failure of the big economic brains to predict the economic collapse that occurred several months ago, one should place any confidence in an econometric method. Perhaps one should but it becomes clear as one "follows the links" on global warming in general, there's a lot of interpretation going on that stretches the limit of the data. I also remind the reader that whatever the quality of today's sea level data, such quality must fall off sharply when one goes back in time even a few decades. According to Dr. Masters, "The authors cautioned that "substantial uncertainties" exist in their estimates, and that the cost of building higher levees to protect against sea level rise is not trivial." "Statistically substantial uncertainties" are often accompanied by substantial uncertainties in the error bars themselves which means that all of the ranges given may be totally off. The author's work may be consistent with zero change in sea-level in the next 100 years or even negative changes. Indeed, the ranges given by Jevrejeva (0.6 - 1.9 ft) are outside the ranges of Pfeffer (2.6 ft - 6.6ft). Perhaps if Jevrejeva had been a teensy bit more optimistic he might have included 0ft within his range? Not by fudging but compared the quality of physical data one encounters in other branches of the physical sciences (like estimates of the velocity of light, for example), perhaps the author should place less confidence in his model and simply say that we really don't know enough to definitively exclude it? When Dr. Masters says, in reference to Pheffer's results, "Their estimates came from a detailed analysis of the processes the IPCC said were understood too poorly to model" he indavertantly illustrates another problem with climate research: the mixing of modeling and data. Dynamical modeling is fraught with difficult mathematical problems even with today's powerful computers. Much of the modeling involves fluid dynamics and if one looks at other areas where this is used--which aren't freighted with the politics of climate change--one will get a sobering view of just how hard it is. The free admixture of results--now from models, now from "data"--that is so common in the literature of climate change should raise red flags. Such admixture is also common in economics and I'll leave it to the reader to decide whether, given the powerful models and impressive mathematical apparatus they use, they've come close to predicting, say, the business cycle--the ability to do so being something of obvious concern and benefit to all.


This isnt really intelligent, its an exercise in pointing out fallacies. Which, honestly, I'm not going to bother with.

However, I wanted to make the post simply to point one thing out: You will see what you want to see in this single post even without considering both sides of it or actually reading the content.
Quoting errantlythought:


This isnt really intelligent, its an exercise in pointing out fallacies. Which, honestly, I'm not going to bother with.

However, I wanted to make the post simply to point one thing out: You will see what you want to see in this single post even without considering both sides of it or actually reading the content.


I cannot fathom seeing anything but the words in the post. There are some objective folks out there, believe it or not.
DOES ANYONE THINK SOMETHING WILL DEVELOP IN THE TROPICS BY AUGUST?