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Hottest U.S. summer in 75 years; La Niña is back; Nate and Maria update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:32 PM GMT on September 09, 2011

The U.S. had its hottest summer in 75 years, and Texas smashed the record for hottest summer ever experienced by a U.S. state since record keeping began in 1895, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center said yesterday. The June - August average temperatures in Texas and Oklahoma were a remarkable 1.6°F and 1.3°F warmer than the previous hottest summer for a U.S. state, the summer of 1934 in Oklahoma. Texas' summer was 2.5°F hotter than their previous hottest summer, in 1998. Louisiana had its hottest summer on record in 2011, and the 4th hottest summer for any U.S. state since record keeping began in 1895. For the U.S. as a whole, the summer of 2011 was the 2nd warmest summer on record, just 0.1°F behind the notorious Dust Bowl summer of 1936. Fifteen states had a summer average temperature ranking among their ten warmest. Washington and Oregon were the only states across the lower 48 to have below-average summer temperatures. Texas also had its driest summer on record, with rainfall 5.29 inches (134.4 mm) below the long-term average, and 1.04 inches (26.4 mm) less than the previous driest summer in 1956. New Mexico had its second driest summer, Oklahoma its third driest summer, and New Jersey and California had their wettest summers on record. The U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which is sensitive to climate extremes in temperature, rainfall, dry streaks, and drought, indicated that an area nearly four times the average value was affected by extreme climate conditions during summer 2011. This is the third largest summer value of record, and came on the heels a spring season that was the most extreme on record. The CEI goes back to 1910.


Figure 1. Average temperatures for the summer in Texas and Oklahoma, at 86.8 degrees F (30.4 degrees C) and 86.5 degrees F (30.3 degrees C), respectively, exceeded the previous seasonal statewide average temperature record for any state during any season. The previous warmest summer statewide average temperature was in Oklahoma, during 1934, at 85.2 degrees F (29.6 degrees C). Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

More bad news for Texas: La Niña is back
La Niña, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter, NOAA announced yesterday. Over the past two weeks, ocean temperatures have cooled significantly in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America. Ocean temperatures in the region 120°W - 170°W and 5°S - 5°N, called the Niño 3.4 region, were 0.6°C cooler than average over the first week of September. The threshold for a weak La Niña is temperatures 0.5° cooler than average, so we are now experiencing weak La Niña conditions. Drought conditions are common over the southern tier of states during a La Niña event, since the cooling of the equatorial Pacific waters usually pushes the jet stream such that rain-bearing low pressure systems pass through the Midwest and avoid the South. It is likely that the drought gripping Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico will continue well into 2012, due to the emergence of La Niña. La Niña events also typically cause wetter than normal winters in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley, colder winters in the Pacific Northwest and northern Plains, and warmer temperatures in the southern states.


Figure 2. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from average on September 8, 2011. Cooler than average waters in the equatorial East Pacific signify the emergence of La Niña. In the Atlantic, SSTs remain very warm in the Main Development Region between the coast of Africa and Central America, including the Caribbean. The Gulf of Mexico is cool where Tropical Storm Lee stirred up the water, and the waters off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts are cool due to the passage of Hurricane Irene. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Tropical Storm Nate
Tropical Storm Nate continues to remain nearly stationary in Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Latest visible satellite loops show that Nate is having trouble with the dry air to its north, which is getting wrapped into the circulation and interfering with intensification. Since the storm is stationary, it is upwelling cooler waters from the depths that are also slowing intensification. Wind shear has fallen to the low range, near 5 knots, so once Nate manages to wall off the dry air to its north and begin moving away from the pool of cool water beneath it, steady intensification should occur. Nate probably has time to intensify to a strong Category 1 hurricane, and perhaps a Category 2 hurricane, before making landfall Sunday in Mexico. The main hazard to Mexico will probably be very heavy rains that will cause flash flooding and mudslides. Thanks to last night's dropsonde mission by the NOAA jet, the computer models have now come into much better agreement on the future path of Nate. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in to the north of the storm, forcing it westward or southwestward to a landfall in Mexico. Nate is too far south to be turned northwards towards Louisiana, as some model runs were suggesting yesterday.

Nate is a small storm, and is not likely to bring significant rains to Texas; only extreme South Texas near Brownsville could see an inch or so of rain over the weekend from an outer spiral band of Nate. Our latest wundermap wind forecast map from the European Center model, with the fire layer turned on, shows that Nate's wind field on Saturday and Sunday will not be large enough to fan the fires burning in Texas.


Figure 3. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Nate taken at 1:40 pm EDT Thursday September 8, 2011. At the time, Nate was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Maria
Tropical Storm Maria is not changing much in intensity it bears down on the Lesser Antilles Islands, data from an An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft currently investigating the storm reveal. Top winds found by the aircraft at their flight level of 5,000 feet were just 48 mph as of 10am EDT, though some stronger surface winds were observed by their SFMR surface wind instrument. Satellite loops show that Maria's heavy thunderstorms have steadily increased in areal coverage and intensity this morning. Maria has grown into a very large tropical storm, and will bring heavy rains and strong gusty winds to nearly all of the islands in the Lesser Antilles. There is still a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear affecting Maria, and this is slowing down intensification. Maria passed just south of buoy 41101 this morning. Sustained winds at the buoy ranged from 22 - 37 mph this morning, and the pressure dropped to 1003 mb. Martinique radar shows heavy rains from Maria are now affecting the islands, but the thunderstorms are not well-organized into spiral bands.

The intensity forecast models predicts steady strengthening for Maria, and I think likely that Maria will be a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday, and develop into a Category 1 hurricane shortly after pulling away from Puerto Rico on Saturday night or Sunday morning. The northeastern portion of the Dominican Republic with get heavy rains from Maria, but not tropical storm-force winds. The computer models are unified on taking Maria across the Northern Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and close to eastern Puerto Rico, but then diverge on how strong the steering influence a trough of low pressure forecast to move off the U.S. East Coast early next week will have. The majority of the models predict that the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas will miss seeing the core of Maria, and the storm will curve to the northwest and then north between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda on a track that would likely take Maria near Newfoundland, Canada. However, two models--the very reliable ECMWF, and the less reliable NOGAPS--predict that Maria will not get picked up by the trough, and instead will plow straight through the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas towards Florida. Given that the ECMWF model predicts an unrealistically weak storm and the NOGAPS model was our poorest-performing major model last year, I believe a more northerly path missing the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bahamas is more likely. We need a dropsonde mission by the NOAA jet to help reduce some of the track uncertainty, but unfortunately we have only one such airplane, and it is tied up flying missions for Tropical Storm Nate in the Gulf of Mexico.

Lee's rains trigger historic flooding in New York and Pennsylvania
Rivers in New York and Pennsylvania swollen by record rains from the remains of Tropical Storm Lee have mostly crested and are on their way down this morning, but it will likely be another day before many of the 120,000 people evacuated from the historic floods can return to their homes. Flooding in many areas of Pennsylvania and New York exceeded that of Hurricane Agnes of 1972, which did $11.8 billion in damage (2010 dollars), and was the costliest hurricane in Pennsylvania's history. Binghamton, New York received 8.48" of rain in the 24 hours ending at 8 am EDT yesterday. This is nearly double the previous all-time record set just last year, when 4.68" fell on Sep 30 - Oct. 1, 2010. Binghamton has also already broken its record for rainiest year in its history; records go back to 1890. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton crested at 25.71', its highest level since records began in 1847, and spilled over the flood walls protecting the city. Rainfall amounts in Pennsylvania were even greater, with Harrisburg receiving 13.30", and a storm-maximum 15.37" falling in Elizabethtown, Pennsylvania. In Wilkes-Barre, PA, the Susquehanna River crested at 38.83' at 1:45 am this morning, just below the 41' flood wall protecting the city. The flood walls were 37' back in 1972 when Hurricane Agnes' rains pushed the Susquehanna River to 41', flooding the downtown area with 9' of water, damaging or destroying 25,000 buildings and causing $1 billion in damage. It's a good thing the flood walls were raised to 41 feet, or else a repeat disaster would have occurred. The extreme rains were due to the slow-moving remains of Tropical Storm Lee as it interacted with a stationary front draped along the Eastern U.S. Adding to the potent moisture mix was a stream of tropical moisture associated with Hurricane Katia that collided with the stationary front.


Figure 4. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton has crested this afternoon at its highest flood height on record, 25.71'. Records at this gauge go back to 1847. Image credit: NOAA/AHPS.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters
Riverview Drive
Riverview Drive
Looking East from Massachusetts Ave, Endwell, NY
Flooded Stuart Mill bridge
Flooded Stuart Mill bridge
Stuart Mill at bridge near Birdfoot. Sept. 8 6:30 pm.

Climate Summaries Flood Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

notice that visible loop LOOK to nate's west he is suckin in all the dry air!
Quoting P451:
48HR WV Imagery of Nate


But by this, dry air has diminished a lot. Maybe it's why the models are seen a Cat 2.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
330 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2011

FLZ050-092030-
PINELLAS-
330 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PINELLAS COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTH REDINGTON BEACH...OR 19 MILES
WEST OF SAINT PETERSBURG BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THESE
STORMS WILL AFFECT TREASURE ISLAND...SAINT PETERSBURG
BEACH...MADEIRA BEACH AND SAINT PETERSBURG...UNTIL 430 PM EDT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AHEAD OF THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT THE COUNTY WITH THE NEXT HALF HOUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME
CAUTION.
Oh lol. Missed it.
Quoting FLdewey:


More severe weather with this mess than Nate anyway.


no warnings from what I can tell. They do seem to be weakening a bit once they hit land. Still not raining in Tampa. should be any minute I would think.
Nice-sized one in Vancouver island; an update to the one mentioned already:

== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==



Region: VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
Geographic coordinates: 49.474N, 126.974W
Magnitude: 6.7 Mw
Depth: 25 km
Universal Time (UTC): 9 Sep 2011 19:41:35
Time near the Epicenter: 9 Sep 2011 12:41:35
Local standard time in your area: 9 Sep 2011 14:41:35

Location with respect to nearby cities:
138 km (86 miles) WSW (246 degrees) of Campbell River, British Columbia, Canada
140 km (87 miles) SSE (164 degrees) of Port Hardy, BC, Canada
212 km (132 miles) NW (306 degrees) of Neah Bay, WA
279 km (173 miles) W (276 degrees) of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada


ADDITIONAL EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
________________________________
event ID : US c0005rsj

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist at NEIC For subsequent updates, maps, and technical information, see:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Q uakes/usc0005rsj.php
or
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/

National Earthquake Information Center
U.S. Geological Survey
http://neic.usgs.gov/


DISCLAIMER: https://sslearthquake.usgs.gov/ens/help.html?page= help#disclaimer


This email was sent to jimpettit@gmail.com

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Quoting P451:
Nate's pretty cool looking on Visible. Any other imagery he's a ghost.

Yeah haha. Most of those cloud are just upper level debris though. Not much in the way of convection.
Quoting BobinTampa:


no warnings from what I can tell. They do seem to be weakening a bit once they hit land. Still not raining in Tampa. should be any minute I would think.


There is a special marine warning
509. P451
Quoting BobinTampa:



why are you still talking about Nate when it's raining in Florida?? You know how we love to talk about our storms.


This is true. Florida it is!

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
For Nate to make progress, he needs to move. It doesn't look THAT bad, its just convectionless :-P





OK - I had asked this earlier.....what is it that is keeping him from moving NE vs. SW ? I know the dry air and the ridge yada yada, but why are the models picking up that he will move into MX? what is steering him ?

Quoting P451:
Nate's pretty cool looking on Visible. Any other imagery he's a ghost.


If you go by that alone, you'd think that he's a strengthening Cat 1 hurricane, not a mid-level tropical storm. That's what dry air and upwelling will do to a storm.

Still, way too much torture for Texas...poor folks.


Anthony
Moist-cha

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Tree top level? In a residential area? Through smoke, highlines and towers? Just curious.

Added-

BTW, Batrop is NOT flat terrain. It is not mountainous but, it is not flat.
You don't have to be at treetop level. And you generally fly in front of the fire front.And that's why they made altimeters.
Don't go out in your YAK
Quoting BobinTampa:


no warnings from what I can tell. They do seem to be weakening a bit once they hit land. Still not raining in Tampa. should be any minute I would think.
Yep. I'm at work in westshore and the gust front out ahead of the rain just came thru.
If Maria had Nate's well-defined circulation, and Nate had Maria's deep convection -- We would have two decent looking systems.



This thing rolling into Tampa looks annular to me.
Quoting LBAR:


Hmmm...massive solar flare left the sun last week. I've read there is a direct correlation between the 2.

Studies going on that are providing interesting data linking the 2 (major earthquake and major solar flare) lnik
Quoting P451:


This is true. Florida it is!

Here's all the moisture that Nate needs... flying off to the NE.
520. HCW
Dry Air 17

Nate 0

10.42 left in the 4th Quarter
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
For Nate to make progress, he needs to move. It doesn't look THAT bad, its just convectionless :-P






Nate's just hanging around waiting for the trough to pick him just to be spitefull of Basti11! Basti11 says for the 100th time "WEST INTO MEXICO, did you hear me everyone I SAID WEST INTO MEXICO!
Quoting hurricanehanna:

OK - I had asked this earlier.....what is it that is keeping him from moving NE vs. SW ? I know the dry air and the ridge yada yada, but why are the models picking up that he will move into MX? what is steering him ?


In order for Nate to go into the Gulf Coast, he would've had to move more northward than he is. The storm is embedded within very weak steering, and thus the storm is kinda meandering. If we had a stronger trough, and Nate was farther north, he would have more than likely went into the USA. However, that isn't happening.
523. P451
7 Hours of Rainbow DOOM targeting Florida

524. HCW
Quoting FLdewey:
This thing rolling into Tampa looks annular to me.


Isn't that against the law in the state of FL ?
I'm out you all, I'll check back in periodically over the weekend to see if Nate ever decides to move!
A surface circulation is very evident on radar... I believe a couple models a few days ago were suggesting a weak storm to develop today in this location.
Quoting JNCali:

Studies going on that are providing interesting data linking the 2 (major earthquake and major solar flare) lnik
yep that is correct and the moon has a relation with the ocean!
Quoting entrelac:
News says that the DC-10 has lead planes to assist. Not sure if that matters in this discussion.
Most fire fighting operations fly with lead planes directing where the loads are to be dropped.
What a wild track so far!
(Click to magnify. Image can further be magnified in Link Window by clicking on it)
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
A surface circulation is very evident on radar... I believe a couple models a few days ago were suggesting a weak storm to develop today in this location.
Good Catch!
you folks in Texas should move to Tampa. It rains all the freaking time here.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good afternoon everybody.

What's wrong with Nate?

What's wrong with Maria?
Quoting HCW:


Isn't that against the law in the state of FL ?


Only if it's extra-tropical.
534. P451
12HR WV Imagery - moisture DOOM heading for FLA.

Quoting 69Viking:
I'm out you all, I'll check back in periodically over the weekend to see if Nate ever decides to move!


Take care...

Quoting Neapolitan:
Nice-sized one in Vancouver island:

== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==


Thanks Neo...haven't had time to check it out yet..That tid bit helped me and I'm sure others in the blog...will be looking for KEEPER to log on..Hoping all is well...
The Vancouver earthquake was off the coast of a sparsely inhabited North Central Coast of Vancouver Island. Victoria and Vancouver are the closest cities and are between 175 and 180 miles away.

The biggest risk with this earthquake is that it will change the stress on this fault system and trigger the overdue 9.0.
537. JLPR2
Jeez, Maria is huge.
538. HCW
Quoting FLdewey:


Only if it's extra-tropical.


Or a STD :)
Maria looks like a wave iv seen this year. Anybody who finds the sat pic when Emily looked like this gets a cookie.



I know for a fact at one point pre-emily look exactly like this in almost the same location.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Nice-sized one in Vancouver island; an update to the one mentioned already:

== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==



Region: VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
Geographic coordinates: 49.474N, 126.974W
Magnitude: 6.7 Mw
Depth: 25 km
Universal Time (UTC): 9 Sep 2011 19:41:35
Time near the Epicenter: 9 Sep 2011 12:41:35
Local standard time in your area: 9 Sep 2011 14:41:35

Location with respect to nearby cities:
138 km (86 miles) WSW (246 degrees) of Campbell River, British Columbia, Canada
140 km (87 miles) SSE (164 degrees) of Port Hardy, BC, Canada
212 km (132 miles) NW (306 degrees) of Neah Bay, WA
279 km (173 miles) W (276 degrees) of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada


ADDITIONAL EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
________________________________
event ID : US c0005rsj

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist at NEIC For subsequent updates, maps, and technical information, see:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Q uakes/usc0005rsj.php
or
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/

National Earthquake Information Center
U.S. Geological Survey
http://neic.usgs.gov/


DISCLAIMER: https://sslearthquake.usgs.gov/ens/help.html?page= help#disclaimer



You requested mail for events within the 'Default Continental United States Profile' region for M4.0 at all times.


To change your parameters or unsubscribe, go to:
https://sslearthquake.usgs.gov/ens/


Uh, Jim. You may want to remove your email address.
Latest VDM for Nate:



Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 20:25Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 15L in 2011
Storm Name: Nate (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 20:10:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°00'N 92°48'W (20.N 92.8W)
B. Center Fix Location: 140 miles (226 km) to the N (4°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,398m (4,587ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 52 nautical miles (60 statute miles) to the W (266°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 2° at 39kts (From the N at ~ 44.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the W (266°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 18:33:10Z

BULLETIN: It is drizzling in Tampa. Repeat drizzling in Tampa. You may need to walk to your car at a slightly faster pace.

We now return to normal blog programming.
544. P451
If you take a good look... aside from Maria - every system is dry. That includes the Florida Doom. We are very dry all throughout the US and the Atlantic.

Quoting HCW:
Dry Air 17

Nate 0

10.42 left in the 4th Quarter


If Nate hits Mexico VC Veracruz, he'll do a Don. All the numericals show weakining before he landfalls.
SPC Sector 18 SPC Mesoscale Analysis

..for the scoop on the GOM action approaching Tampa
Quoting Vlad959810:

What's wrong with Maria?


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2011 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 14:35:06 N Lon : 58:34:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 988.4mb/ 61.0kt


Even though the NHC probably won't use this estimate, it appears Maria may have intensified nearly 20 kts in less than 12 hours. The convectively active phase of the convectively-coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) associated with the large convective burst we observed last night through this morning over Maria now appears to be east of Maria, suggesting Maria is within the stratiform phase of the CCKW. We should keep an eye on the struggling African easterly wave (Montgomery's Pouch 26L) for development during the superposition of the CCKW, which is projected to occur later tonight-tomorrow.
548. HCW
Quoting BobinTampa:
BULLETIN: It is drizzling in Tampa. Repeat drizzling in Tampa. You may need to walk to your car at a slightly faster pace.

We now return to normal blog programming.


Bob are you going to be out streaming live and giving us your best impersonation of the great OZ ?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


In order for Nate to go into the Gulf Coast, he would've had to move more northward than he is. The storm is embedded within very weak steering, and thus the storm is kinda meandering. If we had a stronger trough, and Nate was farther north, he would have more than likely went into the USA. However, that isn't happening.

Gotcha. Thanks :)
TS Nate

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery



Quoting P451:
If you take a good look... aside from Maria - every system is dry. That includes the Florida Doom. We are very dry all throughout the US and the Atlantic.




Hmmmmm, the last time I looked, the Atlantic was full of water. jk
Quoting BobinTampa:
BULLETIN: It is drizzling in Tampa. Repeat drizzling in Tampa. You may need to walk to your car at a slightly faster pace.

We now return to normal blog programming.


LOL... I hope the levees hold.
Quoting MikeVentrice:


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2011 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 14:35:06 N Lon : 58:34:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 988.4mb/ 61.0kt


Even though the NHC probably won't use this estimate, it appears Maria may have intensified nearly 20 kts in less than 12 hours. The convectively active phase of the convectively-coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) associated with the large convective burst we observed last night through this morning over Maria now appears to be east of Maria, suggesting Maria is within the stratiform phase of the CCKW. We should keep an eye on the struggling African easterly wave (Montgomery's Pouch 26L) for development during the superposition of the CCKW, which is projected to occur later tonight-tomorrow.
theres nothing worth keeping an eye on and dont even start wrrying about some wave thats 3000 miles away in africa good lord
Quoting Patrap:
TS Nate Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery Loop


he does have a pretty structure,just so little moistcha
Quoting HCW:


Bob are you going to be out streaming live and giving us your best impersonation of the great OZ ?


Let me run to the liquor store first. since I'll have to walk to my car at a brisk pace, I better stretch first. Don't want to pull a hammy.
Quoting BobinTampa:


Let me run to the liquor store first. since I'll have to walk to my car at a brisk pace, I better stretch first. Don't want to pull a hammy.


You're going to need a ballistic vest, a bicycle helmet, a rain suit, some rope, 3 shot glasses and goggles.

Stay safe.
Quoting BobinTampa:


Let me run to the liquor store first. since I'll have to walk to my car at a brisk pace, I better stretch first. Don't want to pull a hammy.



are you saying oz is and alchie?
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...KATIA A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.6N 62.7W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM N OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Because Florida is unimportant right now.


The nerve of some people :)
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...RAIN BANDS FROM MARIA MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 58.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NNE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011

...NATE STATIONARY AGAIN...EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST GULF COAST OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 92.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...KATIA A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.6N 62.7W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM N OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES



TALLY-HO KATIA SEE YOU IN JOLLY OLD ENGLAND...
Quoting scooster67:


The nerve of some people :)


Do not worry , Florida, for our day will come...someday....
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011

THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NATE THIS AFTERNOON
FOUND A PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 55 KT AND PEAK SFMR VALUES
OF 40-45 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. WHILE NATE CONTINUES TO HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE
BANDED STRUCTURE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...DEEP CONVECTION IS
LACKING...BUT HAS MADE A BIT OF A COMEBACK IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO
IN RAINBANDS WELL EAST AND WEST OF THE CENTER. THE SHIPS MODEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND
AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY IN THE PROFILE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY
WARM SSTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NATE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY SOME IF CAN RE-ESTABLISH CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND THE STATISTICAL MODELS
SHOW ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL WHILE THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE...BUT STILL LOWER THAN THE LAST
CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BY ABOUT 10
KT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT IS ABOVE MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE. AFTER LANDFALL NATE SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS.

AFTER APPEARING TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER TODAY...THE
LATEST AIRCRAFT FIXES SUGGEST NATE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REBUILD TO THE NORTH OF NATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH
SHOULD GET NATE MOVING AGAIN. THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS NOW
SHOW MORE OF A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS NATE APPROACHES
THE COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FOR THIS CYCLE BUT
STILL LIES NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...SHOWING A SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION FOR 12 TO 24 HOURS AND A TURN SOUTH OF DUE WEST
PRIOR TO LANDFALL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 20.0N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 20.2N 93.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 20.2N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 20.1N 95.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 20.0N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 19.5N 98.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Quoting FLdewey:


You're going to need a ballistic vest, a bicycle helmet, a rain suit, some rope, 3 shot glasses and goggles.

Stay safe.


think I saw a tree branch sway a bit. It's going downhill in a hurry here. Animals are acting strangely. My dog is barking and trying to get outside. The really weird part is that I don't even have a dog.

Quoting HCW:


Isn't that against the law in the state of FL ?

ROFL. Best laugh I've had all day
Maria has a good chance of becoming another major...After it has passed the islands of course. ;)

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ORGANIZATION OF MARIA SINCE THIS
MORNING. VISIBLE IMAGERY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON REVEALED
SEVERAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS
OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM
GUADELOUPE SHOW WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND SOME WEAKENING OF THE
CONVECTION. BEFORE DEPARTING MARIA...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT FOUND PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT...WHICH
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW
INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS...ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN.
HOWEVER...THE CURRENT LACK OF INNER-CORE STRUCTURE SUGGESTS
THAT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BE MORE GRADUAL THAN INDICATED BY
SOME OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION.

IT APPEARS THAT MARIA HAS SLOWED DOWN TODAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE SURFACE CENTER REFORMS
CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OVERNIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. IN FACT...
THIS MAY BE WHY THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TRACK FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PARTLY FOR THIS REASON...THE NEW TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE
FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING MARIA TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD AS A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5...CLOSER TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 14.8N 58.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 15.8N 60.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 17.2N 62.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 18.7N 64.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 20.0N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 22.7N 69.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 25.5N 71.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 31.0N 71.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting BobinTampa:


think I saw a tree branch sway a bit. It's going downhill in a hurry here. Animals are acting strangely. My dog is barking and trying to get outside. The really weird part is that I don't even have a dog.



Oh no, I just saw an ant. Must go fill up the shutters and put up the gas cans. Man your battle stations... kill the spiders.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011

THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NATE THIS AFTERNOON
FOUND A PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 55 KT AND PEAK SFMR VALUES
OF 40-45 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. WHILE NATE CONTINUES TO HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE
BANDED STRUCTURE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...DEEP CONVECTION IS
LACKING...BUT HAS MADE A BIT OF A COMEBACK IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO
IN RAINBANDS WELL EAST AND WEST OF THE CENTER. THE SHIPS MODEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND
AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY IN THE PROFILE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY
WARM SSTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NATE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY SOME IF CAN RE-ESTABLISH CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND THE STATISTICAL MODELS
SHOW ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL WHILE THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE...BUT STILL LOWER THAN THE LAST
CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BY ABOUT 10
KT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT IS ABOVE MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE. AFTER LANDFALL NATE SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS.

AFTER APPEARING TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER TODAY...THE
LATEST AIRCRAFT FIXES SUGGEST NATE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REBUILD TO THE NORTH OF NATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH
SHOULD GET NATE MOVING AGAIN. THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS NOW
SHOW MORE OF A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS NATE APPROACHES
THE COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FOR THIS CYCLE BUT
STILL LIES NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...SHOWING A SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION FOR 12 TO 24 HOURS AND A TURN SOUTH OF DUE WEST
PRIOR TO LANDFALL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 20.0N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 20.2N 93.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 20.2N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 20.1N 95.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 20.0N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 19.5N 98.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


Good Riddance Nate, we don't want you in the Gulf Coast.
see the vortex off shore on the Tampa Radar...

DOOM...
Nate seems to be starting to move (although very slowly) to the WNW to almost due west. NHC nailed it again lol.
Quoting BobinTampa:


write your SSN on the milk jugs.


*snort*
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



LOOKS LIKE MARIA WILL MEET KATIA UP IN JOLLY OLD ENGLAND..HOW ABOUT THAT ENGLAND GETTING A DOUBLE WAMMY...
Quoting BobinTampa:


write your SSN on the milk jugs.


I'm going to put 5 on one arm, and the last 4 on the other. That way if I lose one arm my identity won't be stolen.

Good luck finding where I put my DOB. :-|
NEW BLOG
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Good Riddance Nate, we don't want you in the Gulf Coast.


A good storm around south TX and the King Ranch area would be good..Mostly open land and it would kick the rain bands up north..

then I woke up..
Quoting FLdewey:


I'm going to put 5 on one arm, and the last 4 on the other. That way if I lose one arm my identity won't be stolen.

Good luck finding where I put my DOB. :-|
Now that's thinkin'!
582. 996tt
Quoting hurricanehanna:

OK - I had asked this earlier.....what is it that is keeping him from moving NE vs. SW ? I know the dry air and the ridge yada yada, but why are the models picking up that he will move into MX? what is steering him ?


All storms down here move west late in season and we are now with a late season weather pattern. Can anyone think of a late season BOC or Yucatan storm that moved into Northern GOM. What would have to occur with this front Lee made so prominent to reopen the GOM. Have to admit that I love this weather, but hate to see chances of GOM storm gone.
Center of storm is north of Barbados now but heavy convection is approaching from the east now, should be on us soon.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011

THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NATE THIS AFTERNOON
FOUND A PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 55 KT AND PEAK SFMR VALUES
OF 40-45 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. WHILE NATE CONTINUES TO HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE
BANDED STRUCTURE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...DEEP CONVECTION IS
LACKING...BUT HAS MADE A BIT OF A COMEBACK IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO
IN RAINBANDS WELL EAST AND WEST OF THE CENTER. THE SHIPS MODEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND
AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY IN THE PROFILE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY
WARM SSTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NATE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY SOME IF CAN RE-ESTABLISH CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND THE STATISTICAL MODELS
SHOW ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL WHILE THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE...BUT STILL LOWER THAN THE LAST
CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BY ABOUT 10
KT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT IS ABOVE MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE. AFTER LANDFALL NATE SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS.

AFTER APPEARING TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER TODAY...THE
LATEST AIRCRAFT FIXES SUGGEST NATE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
REBUILD TO THE NORTH OF NATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH
SHOULD GET NATE MOVING AGAIN. THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS NOW
SHOW MORE OF A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS NATE APPROACHES
THE COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FOR THIS CYCLE BUT
STILL LIES NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...SHOWING A SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION FOR 12 TO 24 HOURS AND A TURN SOUTH OF DUE WEST
PRIOR TO LANDFALL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 20.0N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 20.2N 93.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 20.2N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 20.1N 95.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 20.0N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 19.5N 98.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


umm why?