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Hot, then cold!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:49 PM GMT on April 10, 2007

A long and severe cold snap across much of the Eastern U.S. has caused considerable damage to peach and berry crops, canceled numerous baseball games, and brought up to four feet of snow to Michigan's Upper Peninsula. Here in Southeast Michigan, we had our coldest week of April in 25 years, and a new winter storm is likely to bring 2-6 inches of snow on Wednesday. All this wintry weather comes on the heels of the second warmest March in U.S. history. The National Climatic Data Center released statistics showing that March 2007 was 5.6�F (3.1�C) warmer than the 20th century mean of 42.5�F (5.8�C) across the lower 48 states. Only March 1910 was warmer in the 113-year national record. More than 2500 daily record high temperatures were set from the East to the West Coast during the month. On the 13th of March alone more than 250 daily high temperature records were set. The earliest high of 90�F (32�C) occurred in Las Vegas that day and the daily record was broken by 6�F (3.3�C). For the month as a whole more than 200 daily record highs of 90�F or greater occurred in California, Arizona, Texas, Oklahoma, and areas of the Southeast. In contrast, Alaska had its third coldest March ever.


Figure 1. Northern Hemisphere departure of temperature from average for March and the week of April 2-9. Note how the pattern of warmer vs. colder than average temperatures reversed over North America between the two time periods. Images are plotted from the NCAR/NCEP daily reanalysis data, which has interpolation porblems over data-poor areas like the Southern Hemisphere and oceans, so these areas are not plotted. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

For the year, the U.S. has had an average January (49th warmest), colder than average February (34th coldest), exceptionally warm March (2nd warmest), and now a very cold April. Climate change science really doesn't have much to say about whether sharp temperature fluctuations like this will become more common in a world undergoing global warming. For now, I'm just attributing the past month's wild swing in temperature to natural variability. The jet stream moved to a completely new pattern between March and early April, reversing where above average and below average temperatures occurred over North America (Figure 1). Where will the jet stream set up for this year's hurricane season, determining the dominant hurricane track? I'll have my first discussion of that in late May, since the jet stream position is generally not predictable more than two weeks in advance.

Swindled?
On Thursday March 8th, the UK TV Channel 4 aired a program titled "The Great Global Warming Swindle". In the words of conservative commentator Thomas Sowell, "Distinguished scientists specializing in climate and climate-related fields talk in plain English and present readily understood graphs showing what a crock the current global warming hysteria is." I've been asked by a number of people to review the movie, but haven't found time to do so. It got yanked from youtube.com for violating copyright laws, but is available from UK TV Channel 4. The scientists at realclimate.org reviewed the movie, and call it a fraud with distorted, misrepresented, and incorrect science.

My next blog will be Thursday.
Jeff Masters
After the Storm
After the Storm
Easter Snow
Easter Snow

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

That's right Doc, ignore it like you normally do. Some scientist you are, you don't even care to see the hype for yourself. If then you were around in Gallileo's age and your priest told you his telescope device was rubbish, you would probably heed his advice and not dare to look beyond the planets.. or is it just about price? A man of your stature should be able to get someone to send you a free copy..
You can put on enough clothes to get warm, but sometimes you can't get cool, even if you're get butt naked.
Will the April's cold spell bring even larger hail storms to the central states as the warmer gulf air collides with the unseasonalbly colder jet stream?
Latest freeze for Jacksonville, Fl. occured on Easter morning, 31F. We have never had a freeze in April before.
The Great Global Warming Swindle clips I found...there is a 3rd one but its all edited fluff narrated by a Well Known British Narrator. They cut and paste as well as us.
Hello,

If y'all would look at the temperature anomaly map of Eurasia for 4/2/07 to 4/9/07 one will notice that most of Russia/Siberia is in a greater then 10 degree C warming. Is it not possible that this warmer than average airmass could be displacing the cold Arctic air Southward towards Canada and the U.S.? Does it not stand to reason that with increased global warming thus increased energy we should observe increased mixing? Just a thought.
"They expose the documentary as a fraud with distorted, misrepresented, and incorrect science."

WOW! I could have sworn the same thing was said about Al Gore's movie. However, you said, and I quote:

"If you haven't seen Al Gore's global warming movie, "An Inconvenient Truth", it's time you watched this important film."

So is this what you are trying to say?:

The Inconvenient Truth = FACT

The Great Global Warming Swindle = FICTION

Doc, Whats your thoughts on the gulf and what the GFS predicts?
I bet Doc M paid $10.50 in a movie theatre for Al Gore's movie... now all of a sudden cost comes into play...please
Here comes the rainLink
Its already firing up out there:

GULF IR SAT

Station 42040 - MOBILE SOUTH 64 nm South of Dauphin Island, AL
-- GRAPH

I think the Big one showing up on the GFS is going to move off Louisiana today into the gulf
more bogus stuff...far more industrial output contributing to global warming during the war than the twenty or so years after. Need more metal to build a single tank than twenty automobiles. A ship, guns, cannon, munitions....??!! Think about it.
I noticed that on the maps in Dr. Masters entry virtually the entire Southern Hemisphere is colder than normal; anybody have anything to say about this?
What GS!?

I wouldnt want to be out in that mess in a dingy! Another low system is about to enter the gulf too look at the sat of Texas/Louisiana.
the entire Southern Hemisphere is colder than normal; anybody have anything to say about this?

Taking a guess here STL, perhaps the over abundance of water in that hemisphere reflects more heat off?
I donno MSTL - then theres that plume in the arctic. - A type of circulation to compensate for the warming?
Does anyone notice that the SH has been colder than normal?
I wonder where the weekly temperature anomoly image came from? Anway, a cooler than normal day yesterday too, and the water temp is now between 63 and 64, when the normal for this time of year is about 66. Should be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Indications are that the damage to peach and blueberry crops has been savage here.
25. rlk
Those maps are showing vast areas of the tropics and subtropics in South America, Australia, and Asia well below normal -- 6~7C in places. While that's nothing unusual at high latitudes, that would seem to be extreme in the tropics.

Also, note that the map is not equal area -- the projection used shrinks the tropics and expands the high latitudes relative to reality. In March in particular it looks like most of the planet's land surface was well below normal. It would be very interesting to see the air temperatures over the oceans.

Of course, here in the northeast we didn't exactly have a warm March. There was about a week of warm weather, but nothing particularly unusual for mid March. However, in the first week of the month we had a severe cold snap -- four consecutive days (including one daily record low minimum and one tied) of lows below 10F in Boston. Boston averaged about 20 degrees F below normal for those four days; other first order stations were considerably more than that.
If antropogenic global warming skeptics have to rely on the Mayan calandar as talking points, then they deserve to be treated with the same respect as the biblical astronomers, who STILL say that the sun revolves around the earth. Some skeptics make good points, but that is not among them.
I've noticed the SH land is cooler but some hot spots in the ocean down there have popped up & are forecasted to heat up a bit in the next 6 months.

Hey all!

Good to see ya SSIG! Been a while. Hope things are going well. Good to see you to Skye.
Good morning Jeff...so you are the one who keeps sending me snow during the night to put a fright in this old lady...Waking up in the morning and finding an inch of the white stuff is not good for us old folks..LOL thing is though you are thoughtful enough to send sunshine to melt it before noon and warm up our temps. We love ya sweetie but please keep Wednesdays' snow on the American side of the border please.
Is there anyone out on this blog that denies that human consumption of fossil fuels is increasing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, and that increased concentrations of CO2 trap more heat?

Oh and good to see you too stormjunkie :) did you get a freeze where you were? We reached 90 on 4/4, our second earliest 90 degree day ever here. We cooled to 37 on Easter (second coolest April reading ever, it did reach 36 in 1950) 36.1 @ my house.
uuggghh!

Will the Global warming zealots give it a rest already!!!

Instead of promoting Junk Science, why can't we put all that emotion and thought into something we can learn from...... like the coming Hurricane Season!

Seems to me, that each individual has his/her mind made up about global warming, without having all the facts!!! this lead's to an "emotional response", rather than a fact based one.

nobody, I repeat nobody, has all the facts about global warming..... so how arguments can be made escapes me.

Why can't we just concentrate on reducing pollutants in the atmosphere?? This may have a small and insignificant effect on global warming, but I think we can all agree we want clean water, clean air..... etc.

I don't agree with a lot of the global warming science, pro or con..... but that sure as hades doesn't mean I want to breath dirty air and drink brown water!

the same one's who complain about global warming, are the first one's at wal-mart to buy cheaply made Chinese goods.

has anybody been to shanghai lately??



I just think we should concentrate our efforts on things we can agree on, and things we can change, instead of bashing over global warming!
We were close if not there SSIG. 32-34...Crazy. Alll in the same year we had a little snow before Thanksgiving...

Back to work.

See y'all later.

ps I would love any input any one has on the SST comparison maps in my blog.
Good morning evry1. Should be getting stormy across most of the central and eastern US.
We don't know "all the facts" about the JFK assassination, but he is still dead.
shanghai pollution is mostly about making US corporate stuff, Barbie Dolls to Black & Decker.
I have to go eat some lunch and then go to a budget meeting (hang me now)! But I will look at them later today Stormjunkie :)
whew guys..thought the Rutgers basketball team had preempted the The Weather Channel there for a minute.
By the way, since Imus is gone, anybody got any P Diddy or Fiddy Cent CD's I can download.
"Posted By: StSimonsIslandGAGuy
We don't know "all the facts" about the JFK assassination, but he is still dead."

that's exactly my point! lets work together to reduce pollutants....

But to have the US sign the Kyoto treaty, while China gets a waiver??? meantime I lose my job because of unreasonable caps on emissions????

If I can spend 100 million dollars to reduce polltants on my plant by 95%, I should do it.... but don't tell me I have to spend 500 million more to reduce it to 97%..... this is unreasonable.....

but i guess reason is thrown out the window when emotion is involved.

I keep calling for reduced emissions, clean water, clean air..... but do I get credit??? nope, I get bashed!

well have at it!
the same one's who complain about global warming, are the first one's at wal-mart to buy cheaply made Chinese goods.

This is completely untrue. I haven't been in Walmart in over 8 years & buy American, particularly local when I can. Try it life will be happier.
"Instead of promoting Junk Science"

The only people promoting Junk Science are the GW deniers.

"The Inconvenient Truth = FACT

The Great Global Warming Swindle = FICTION"

Happens to be true. Go up to "education" and read Dr. Masters' review of Gore's movie.
Skye, my apologies for throwing out the Baby with the bath water! No disrespect was meant, I was merely trying to make a point, and could have probably done a better job......

I too try to by American when I can.... but to be honest, there are lots of goods that you cannot buy made in America, because it's not made in America anymore.

Sad that most of our industries have been imported, and the car mfg's are in sad shape! I worry about the country/ world we leave our kids!
dr m you get my WU e mail?
lol gulf
Easiest way to clean up the Heaviest Polluting Country (USA)and get the finger off you, is to ship all of your industry to other contries and blame it on them, lol.
"Posted By: DocBen
"Instead of promoting Junk Science"

The only people promoting Junk Science are the GW deniers."

another emotional response, instead of a fact based response!

I you have read my post's, you will never find where i have "denied" anything!

FACT is, there are mis-truths on both sides.....

once again, I ask that we get away from the "debate", and agree we need to reduce pollutants, clean up the air, clean up the water.....

what's so hard about that concept? I don't give a flip about how you "feel" about global warming!
All good Thel, emotions were getting the best of ya. & so true, the global market to make cheaper has done everything from the atmosphere, ground & humanity a disservice. Somethings are impossible to buy local made. Just learned to do without alot of the materal crap. I sew & grow stuff so that takes care of some. This country used to be huge in textiles, USA made there is getting harder to find.

Hey SJ:)
I certainly hope once Cane season starts, we can lay this stuff to rest! :)

Some say black, some say white, I say gray! LOL
h23,are you "Hurricane29" on flhurricane.com?
I know i am off subject but does anyone have any information on the bermuda high's location and whats the thinking of its placement
It has been stuck here for a very long time! Hard to say about where it will set up right now! Trend says further west, but that can change before and during Hurricane Season!
Good afternoon...

Temps in the mid 80's across most of south florida today with 90 degree readings in some places by the end of week.Rain chances are there but nothing to crazy.Adrian

Adrian's Weather
The Great Global Warming Swindle would not be worth your time watching to review. It was very poor quality and even some of its participants have disowned it. Unfortunately the channell allowed a few dissidents to bash their drum ignoring the views of the vast majority of climate scientists and that there is in any case a lot of genuine healthy debate as evidenced by the discussions at the climate change conference this weekend.
Thelmores, I agree with you that the most important thing is to find common ground and clean up our act. Kudos.

I got a good laugh about the cow flatulence thing. :-) While there have been studies on that. This is what I was talking about, and yes, be skeptical, we all need that too.

http://www.newmediaexplorer.org/sepp/2005/02/01/global_warming_methane_could_be_far_worse_than_carb on_dioxide.htm

More to the point of this blog. I remember reading back in 2004 that if global warming were to occur, we'd have more shearing winds and less hurricane activity as a result. The next two years proved interesting. What's next? I'll be reading here with interest.

Thanks




h23,are you "Hurricane29" on flhurricane.com?
Those clips from the Great Global Warming Swindle were terrible. But you must understand the British press and news agencies tend to use alot of sensationalism, whether it is accurate or not. I lived there for six years and the most widely read paper is "The Sun". This is the most sensationalistic piece of trash you will ever see. It is ten times worse than "The Enquirer" in the States. The Sun is the main basher of the Royal family.
MisterPerfect, lets please keep this to a minimum bashing level as much as possible. I am not a Global Warming advocate either but everyone is entitled to their opinion, hopefully without getting slammed. That is what makes our country great. Believe me in many countries this is not allowed. Trust me I know, Ive been there! This is just an information exchange all in fun.
This is just an information exchange all in fun.

My point exactly. You may continue to ride the bus from whatever seat you wish.
I just hope that the rain shield from the eastern GOM low gets this far north. 26th straight day with no measureable rain! The budget meeting I am in has me in this mood ;-) Try this link it is hilarious :) Link
I think there is going to be enough rain to go around. The gulf looks to be on a buildup to a possibly kinda (at least) scary event for some. The pressure change alone is incredible a couple days ago 30.20 ish was the norm. The bizarre storm(s) on the GFS look to becoming reality. They are going to have coastal flooding at the big bend area. - wait but - it may not have time to build up a lot. Midnight is when it looks to come ashore.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
244 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2007



Come on guys the global warming stuff is important, even now - 10% of the world's population live in flood prone coastal areas.
Dr Masters.....PLEASE stop any usage of the words "GLOBAL WARMING". This blog goes crazy when you do....thanks.

Any large hail storms brewing in our future?

Hello: WBK & H23 Hurricane season is getting closer. What's you'll thought about it? Not asking for early predictions just wondering how it's shaping up? I still can't read maps and really understand them still learning at least trying to. Sometimes it's like a foriegn language to me.lol
Did you'll have a good Easter?
Sheri
Had a good Easter.
I think a year like '04.
Do you'll think Mobile,Alabama might see any bad storms today? It's gray and raining, well drizzling right know. I'm just wondering. Thanks in advance.
thelmores - your reference to "promoting junk science" seemed to imply that those of us who believe that the evidence for GW is overwhelming are doing so - practicing Junk science. I submit that we are not; we are citing the extensive evidence for anthropogenic caused climate change.

I have seen both Inconvenient Truth and Global Swindle. I agree with Dr. Masters that the former is accurate; the LATTER, however, is classic junk.
WBK: Don't mean to sound dumb but was "04" a bad year I just can't remember. Was that when Ivan hit around Mobile? I'm sorry sometimes I can't remember. I guess it's with age?
I doubt if there will be any bad storms.Not much shear or instability.
I agree with Dr. Masters that the former is accurate; the LATTER, however, is classic junk.

Dr. Masters didn't even watch it dude. Anyone can call something crap without watching it..

I agree MP
If Al Gore had made it...I'm sure he would've made time to watch it,LOL.
Sheri,here's 04:



Mr Perfect - lousy grammer on my part. That was MY take on Swindle.

http://www.wunderground.com/education/gore.asp
Isn't '04, the year that Charlie hit in the Gulf then traveled through the states & built back up & came around again? That was so amazing. I am not very "Weather Educated", but I don't recall ever seeing that happen.
WBK: Thank You for taking the time to show me the map. And I see it was busy that year. I remember Ivan very well I lost about 16 Trees in my yard It took us a while to get everything back like it was then a year later Katrina and still recouperating from her. But like i said Thank you very much.
Sheri
Isn't '04, the year that Charlie hit in the Gulf then traveled through the states & built back up & came around again? That was so amazing. I am not very "Weather Educated", but I don't recall ever seeing that happen.
I believe that was Ivan.
OOOPS!! I remember now. Thank you. I am afraid my memory is not very good. I do remember watching that!!
Anyone remember Betsy in the 60's? Didn't she do that?
I dont know cyclone. Around 26n 87w there seems to be some rotation. The convection isnt very strong there but the shear is dropping.


Station BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.75 in
-0.09 in ( Falling Rapidly )


Nothing tropical perhaps - but winter/spring storms can be bad enough and who knows what could just show up in the gulf .
Thanks alot Thecanewhisper, so with the bermuda high located where she is what good news is that for florida and if moves west what can that say for florida and the gulf,
Hurricane Ivan passed over Gulf Shores, Alabama and the eastern eyewall passed over Pensacola, Florida causing immense damage in Pensacola. Estimated winds over 140 mph, no accurate readings as all official NWS anemometers crashed before the worse passed over. One unofficial reading of 147 mph was taken by a private weather station. 12.9 foot storm surge in Pensacola Bay, taking a good chunk of the I-10 bridge with it. Ivan then looped up the East coast, came back down over the Atlantic, reentered the Gulf of Mexico and reformed again as a tropical storm before ending over Texas. I am originally from Pensacola. It took 5 months for my mother to get a new roof!
I think we had a gust to 129 During Ivan here in Fort Walton Beach.
Power was out for three weeks after that damned storm.
jphurricane2006, I definitely understand that. The "Insurance Storm" is still going strong!
And Ft. Walton was 50 miles further east from the center of where Ivan struck. Shows how broad that storm was.
Uh-oh...

Somebody forgot the closing tag for italics.
The little bit of rotation I can see is going the wrong way to build up to anything dangerous, isn't it? Please, I have been watching & tracking with the little knowledge I have & trying to learn. If I make a mistake, I welcome the correction. (but please be nice,I'm old.) (lol) My husband often says that being ignorant of the fact that you shouldn't be able to do something a certain way; allows you to do it. I predicted the landfall of Katrina's eye, very close to New Orleans, early on, long before the computers did. I also out guessed the computers on the 2 previous Hurricanes. The 2 after, I didn't do so hot.
Ivan did the Ghost of Ivan loop 8
Sorry!
Randrewl got ban
yeah i dont think the Gulf is brewing anything Tropical at the moment
thats quite commendable, saved, welcome to the blog, your observations and predictions are always welcome here
Anyone remember Betsy in the 60's? Didn't she do that?

Yes, I believe Betsy did a loop in the Atlantic. First headed northwest toward the Carolinas, did a complete loop, headed southwest, then west, crossed south Florida the ended up in Louisiana.
102. Quark
the severe weather blog is back i will be takeing overe the severe weather blog
very cool Quark, will be checking that out.
That 'thing' west of FL looks like a strong warm front; not any sort of 'circulatory' feature.
Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 1:04 PM PDT on April 10, 2007.

again? Randrewl got banned last year too. Whatd he do this time?
no circulation in the Gulf

Hey guys whats up? quick weather report here in lantana, off on rain has been going on since about one and will countinue for a while noumorous lighning strikes and thunder much needed rain is happining :0)
are these severe thunderstorms coming towards Dade and Broward county???
Tornado Signiture on D3 approacing west palm, hook echo appearing
111. Quark
hello evere one i will be takeing overe the severe weather blog come to my Quark blog if you want to talk about severe weather
Take cover lake worth and west palm possible tornado coming your way.
113. RL3AO
Anyone have the link that shows the probability of tropical development map? Thanks in advance.
RL3A0...

StormJunkie.com Quick Links

I think you are reffering to the RAMMB Genesis site. Should be under forecast models on above link...
Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
FLC099-102145-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0002.070410T2108Z-070410T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
508 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 505 PM EDT...THE PALM BEACH COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED A FUNNEL
CLOUD NEAR LANTANA ROAD AND MILITARY TRAIL IN ATLANTIS...MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE WORTH BY 510 PM EDT.
WEST PALM BEACH BY 515 PM EDT.

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...AWAY FROM OUTSIDE WALLS AND
WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE.
USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 2671 8014 2658 8013 2658 8005 2676 8004

$$

STRASSBERG


oh god thats right by me
Take cover now the storm is on your doorstep!
118. Quark
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
420 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING MISSISSIPPI SOUND...CAT ISLAND...PASS CHRISTIAN AND SHIP
ISLAND...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 419 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS FROM
PASS CHRISTIAN TO 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PASS CHRISTIAN...MOVING
EAST AT 25 KT.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.
Guys i live in lantana what should i do?
The cell is weakening but I would still take cover for a bit, just in case.
K thanks
GW, GW, GW...is it Hurricane season yet? The early forecasters have really built up expectations for a very active hurricane season so I am not in a hurry for it to begin.

I don't ever expect people to be in 100% agreement on most things, particularly Global Warming.

Here are a couple of things that have united this country in the past:

Bombing of Pearl harbor / WWII
Assassinatin of JFK
9/11

Here are a few things that galvanized the US Government:

The development of the atom bomb at Los Alamos.
Beating the Russians to the moon.

I suggest we unite to create more renewable resources like solar power. More nuclear power plants will also help. Do you like the games OPEC plays to keep the price of crude high? It is only a matter of time before domestic suppliers of Natural Gas & Coal do the same thing. Volatile energy prices suck & it makes things very inconvenient for everybody. It would be nice to have stable energy prices & going nuclear/solar is probably the only way to accomplish this.
NOAA radio. always lets ya know if ones issued. Beats waiting for the Train acoming.6

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS POSSIBLE TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...AWAY FROM OUTSIDE WALLS AND
WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE.
USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
is a tornado coming?
Have a Plan..Practice your Plan..Work your plan when a warning or Event warrants it.
The severe Page has all the current warnings. It refreshes every few minutes. Bookmark it for reference.
Heres the Severe Page...Link
129. Quark
when i try to go to Randrewl blog that pop up

Banned
This user has been banned from the Wunder Blogs
trak, no offense, but if one is coming near your area and you are still sitting here reading the blogs then I am conerened for you...

Take pat's advice...
Your safe there now! Hurricane
weather report from lantana..... Pouring rain thunder lighning gusty winds and feirce lightningSCARY
NOAA radio. always lets ya know if ones issued. Beats waiting for the Train

Excellent post Pat - those radios are lifesavers. This site -it's a wonderful site and it's SO valuable, but before the last two tornadoes here- there was no power - not to mention the time it takes to refresh.
I'm not surprised Rand was banned.
He's a troublemaker
Does nothin' but start fights.
My tornado plan (Kansas):

Put my son on the roof with a cell phone to spot them. Put my grandchildren in the basement with their grandmother. Make sure I am beneficiary on my son's life insurance.
Cold Doc, but lmao...
"FACT is, there are mis-truths on both sides....."

DocBen, I prefer to skip the GW debate altogether. These were my exact words from earlier today.

We should clean up our planet. period, no discussion required.

Can I put my ex-wife on the roof instead of my son? LOL
does anybody know why he was banned?
Check Aaron's comments.
I agree, rand can tend to be rather arrogant and rude, otherwise not a bad guy though, we all have our flaws
who is Aaron?
As far as specifics,I have no idea.But all he did was start fights.With me,STL,Bob,rocket,SG.Anyone who disagreed with him.
Aaron is WunderYakuza.
Good to see ya thel.

Checked out the SST maps yet? Things look pretty warm out there compared to the past few years. Will be interesting to see how the shear and high sets up this year...
149. ryang
If he is unbanned...and is banned again he's gone!
It's finally raining in Central Florida...been dry as a bone here for weeks.
Time to pack up the bags and go to a luxurious resort in Siberia and get a nice tan... Ahhhhh
Like wise Junkie.....

Maybe we'll get another opportunity to venture out again this Hurricane Season.....

I know I'll be better prepared if we do! LOL Was soaked to the bone!
153. ryang
Sounds good SP...LOL
so when people get banned they are able to get unbanned?
155. ryang
Yes Story...
here comes the high, the large approaching cold front will likely force it back though

does it depend on the severity of the infraction? Or everyone gets a second chance?
I would think a combo.The first time he was banned was for posting a......inappropriate link.I wasn't a member then,and only heard about it later.
yeah i saw the link, didnt bother me but I understand why it did bother others due to the fact some people could be at work on the blog, or underage.

shear is on its way out for the time being

Pressures still dropping in the gulf but the winds are not so bad.

Station 42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.60 in -0.07 in ( Falling )


Station 42001 - MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.71 in
-0.06 in ( Falling )


I wonder what will happen tonight - this is a huge system - i mean - will we have nighttime tornadoes?
Have you seen the two week GFS shear forecast?Lots of breaks coming in the Carribean.
please post a link, kris
right now i can only see shear forecasts for 72 hours :(
thanks
Hey what do u guys think about the hurricane season? comin up?
Set the model at 'GFS',the level to 'wind shear',and the domain to 'tropical atlantic'.Then press 'add map'
I'd go with a repeat of '04.
is 20 knots about the cutoff for shear being too high?
VERY active season on the rise
Yeah,roughly about 20kt.But the maps are in meters per second.
Thanks it was scary but what do u think, like whats ur predictions for landfalls and where and howmany storms
Too early for that.Wait a month or so.
oh, would you say the red and purple areas are the favorable and blue and beyond unfavorable?
how do i go to ur blog?
actually blue might be slightly favorable too if you correlate that with the 72 hour forecast map on my blog
Yes storyofthecane,I'd say that.
They're on two different scales, SOTC.
m/s=1.943kts, so probably just the red and purples, cuz the blue is about 40kts
Yeah.But overall,shear lowers through the whole forecast.We may not see shear like we have now again until November,if the forecasts are correst.
Nice its sound good to me
yep, its definitely dropping, just not too quickly, I think we should see a storm in May
Hey JP.. looks like a busy season ahead! I read that the caribbean and gulf may be the highest landfall areas? have you read anything?
Back for a few minutes. I too, hope you all faired well in Florida. Thanks for the welcome,
storyofthecane. I am a fellow Kansan, DocBen, veteran of some the bigger ones. I'm with the majority. Sure looks like a busy hurricane season........& Tornado season. Starting that direction, anyhow.
what was all this talk about a system near Central America. Will that get swept up my way, so I can get out of these water restrictions of which are set to go into Phase III now on Friday morning
rats, I was hoping for some nice drought busting weather.
hows that constest JP? whats rules n such? guess number of storms? when they will form and where they will go? my guess on season as a whole would be 16 named 9 hurricanes and possibly 4 major// do you agree??
Bom update in a few hours...
Good to see ya PWSN
but if one is coming near your area and you are still sitting here reading the blogs then I am conerened for you...

Well, I guess it might be different if his internet connection is in the basement . . .

LOL
Is there a lot of Saharan dust out there now? last year the SAL was one of the reasons for a subdued hurricane season. Will this be a factor in '07?
Hmmm . .. looks like the NW Bahamas is going to get some of that rain tonight as well.

However, it certainly doesn't look tropical in nature. It's going the wrong way, for one thing LOL.

When is that BOM update coming out? I'd be interested to see it also.
You can always check here for SAL analysis.
Bahahurrican the bom update should be out in the next 2-3 hours.


Adrian's Weather
Thanks, 23. Have u gotten any rain so far?
h23,are you "hurricane29" on flhurricane.com?
Intense line moving towards my area in miami.Hopefully it will weaken before it reaches miami dade and broward counties.


weathergeek, the SAL is significantly weaker than at this time last year. We'll see if this changes as temperatures rise in Africa and the winds shift westward. More than likely it will intensify but probably won't be as strong as last year. We won't have to worry about the SAL til around June, right now all eyes are on the Caribbean and the Gulf.
Currently about 3 minutes into a rather heavy downpour here. It's good to get some precipitation here, though April is not a particularly heavy rainfall month for us on average.

On satellite it looks like Grand Bahama is getting some of those heavy downpours that H23 was getting a couple of hours ago.
Speaking of which,a very bad squall line just moved through Miami.
Wonder if he recorded any good wind gusts.
Looks like a squall train is in motion in the area . . .
Miami NWS storm reports~ it's all hail.
WaaaHooo !!! Keep it Coming Baby !!!
Thanks Skye.I saw some gusty-very gusty-winds on radar,though.
After 25 days with no rain, we had 0.01" in the last hour. WHEEEEEEEEE!
Not exactly drought-busting,but this will probably drop KBDIs over south Florida 30-50 points:

Radar indicating rotation offshore with possible waterspouts.Heavy Rain came threw here but no lighting.


Hopefully all will be beneficial rather than harmful. We sure can use the rain.

Anyway, I'm out - G'nite!
220. Rodek
Just had a thunderstorm a few minutes ago with some gusty winds, few lightning bolts and some much, much needed rain here in Ft. Walton Beach. Any development in the carib?
Arkansas is looking bad - looks like a tornado now on Oklahoma radar - Boy they could have a really horrible night around Little Rock.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2007

MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT RELATIVELY BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH...NOW
SHIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...
WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION AND TAKE ON INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE TILT LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS PROGGED
TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY INTENSIFICATION OF 500 MB JET STREAK /FROM 80
TO 100 KT/ DIGGING TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND
DEEPENING OF PRIMARY SURFACE LOW FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI. AS THIS OCCURS...AND SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN ARKANSAS...
INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD FROM THE
WESTERN GULF.



We really haven't had much rain in north central Fla from this system. I think it is running behind schedule and could still give us some. It sounds like south Fl will get the best of it.

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2007

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT N IN THE NRN GULF. AS
OF 21Z...THE FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST NORTH
OF LAKE OCKEECHOBEE TO SE LOUISIANA. THE FRONT IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NE QUADRANT
OF THE GULF AND ACROSS N/CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE WEST ATLC.
THE STRONGER CELLS ARE EAST OF LAKE OCKEECHOBEE ENTERING THE
WEST ATLC. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING AND A TORNADO WARNING
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND WEST OF THE
EVERGLADES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND BE
OUT OF THE REGION BY TOMORROW. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NW GULF TOMORROW MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WILL
MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
A LOW OVER N/CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE WEST ATLC KEEPING
MOISTURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.


Cool Map H23 ! It's Been Raining for Hours Here Too !
Good morning WUBAband Members........

Somebody got rain ????
send some down here please
Wow! Just received another heavy downpour with strong winds from the north, which is an unusual direction. It's still quite overcast, with cloud bottoms visible only a couple hundred feet from the ground.

On a more tragic note, a single-engine private plane from the FL west coast crashed in waters between Nassau and Andros last night. I find it hard to believe anybody who had seen radar or satellite for the northern Bahamas would have even taken off last night, but I guess the pilot figured they could beat the front to Ft. Lauderdale. Unfortunately they didn't make it . . .
Sorry I can't make the front hang lower, pottery [smiling]. This is really the best rain we have had all year.
Morning Baha....
enjoy the rains

Only a damm fool would fly a small plane into that. A real shame though.......
And a single engined one, too. Unfortunately these are the planes most vulnerable to the sometimes freaky weather that can occur in Bahamian skies. A twin-engined plane can often limp its way to an airport. [sigh]

I have to go to work today. Otherwise I would stay in. Hopefully the roads won't be crammed with fools trying to drive as if we were in the middle of a dry spell . . ..
Nassau Airport, Bahamas, The (MYNN) 25-03N 077-28W 7M
Apr 11, 2007 - 07:00 AM EDT / 2007.04.11 1100 UTC
Wind: from the NNW (330 degrees) at 18 MPH (16 KT):0
Visibility: greater than 7 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: mostly cloudy
Weather: light rain showers; Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature: 73 F (23 C)
Dew Point: 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity: 94%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.94 in. Hg (1014 hPa)

Freeport, Grand Bahama, Bahamas, The (MYGF) 26-33N 078-42W 11M
Apr 11, 2007 - 07:00 AM EDT / 2007.04.11 1100 UTC
Wind: from the SSE (160 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT):0
Visibility: greater than 7 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: overcast
Weather: light rain
Temperature: 71 F (22 C)
Dew Point: 68 F (20 C)
Relative Humidity: 88%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.81 in. Hg (1009 hPa)

pottery, are u guys observing daylight savings time, or is it about 7:40-7:45 there?
Wow.

See Misterperfect is still a moron. And he makes his stupidity evident right at the beginning of the comments, too!
Now THIS is what I like to see! Now we just need to get some rain to the worst areas to the south and west of lake 0! They didn't get much at all yesterday!
Look at this little booger spinning off the west coat of Costa Rica...its like a mini hurricane Link
More From The Times-Picayune | Subscribe To The Times-Picayune
White House resists plan for 72-mile storm shield
Denying Terrebonne project would be mistake, Vitter says
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
By Bill Walsh

WASHINGTON -- The White House has quietly signaled its opposition to a 72-mile levee system in south Louisiana proposed to protect about 120,000 people who have watched the Gulf of Mexico creep ever closer to their homes as the coast erodes.

The Bush administration raises concerns about the $900 million project in a draft policy paper being circulated on Capitol Hill as the House of Representatives prepares to consider legislation that would authorize construction.

The president stopped short of threatening a veto. But his opposition could delay the long-awaited Water Resources Development Act or scuttle the snaking system of levees and floodgates that has been on the drawing board for 15 years to protect people and property in Terrebonne and Lafourche parishes.






"If this policy statement is allowed to stand, it will display a fundamental lack of understanding and commitment to crucial hurricane and flood protection in key parts of southeast Louisiana," Sen. David Vitter, R-La., wrote in a letter to the president. "I urge you in the strongest possible terms to correct this mistake."

An administration spokesman soft-pedaled its concerns about the so-called Morganza-to-the-Gulf project, saying the policy is still in draft form. A final version could be issued as early as next week if, as expected, the House takes up the water resources bill when it returns from recess.

"At this point, to say there is a concern is probably premature," said Sean Kevelighan, spokesman for the Office of Management and Budget. "The legislation is under review right now."

But a draft version of the administration's position was unequivocal. It called for deleting the Morganza project from the bill.

"The project requires reformulation based on an analysis that reflects recent storm data, substantial cost increases, and the effects of other levees proposed south of Houma, and that assesses how it would affect the limited options available for restoring the ecosystem of the Terrebonne Basin," the document says.

It also calls for reducing federal financing for broader coastal restoration to $500 million and forcing the state to pay 50 percent of the overall costs, which Vitter labeled "a raw deal for Louisiana." The Blanco administration has estimated that restoring the coast, which is eroding through manmade and natural forces at a rate of 30 square miles per year and lost an estimated 217 square miles because of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, would cost in excess of $14 billion.

In their draft policy statement, Bush administration officials say they support coastal restoration in Louisiana, but "we would encourage the House to instead enact a broad, more flexible authorization." The Army Corps of Engineers began studying hurricane protection for Houma and the communities to the south in Terrebonne and Lafourche parishes in 1992. Plans were drawn for a 72-mile earthen levee system, with 12 floodgates and a canal lock in Houma. It was intended to protect 120,000 residents of south Louisiana and 1,700 square miles of marshes, farmland, residential communities and industrial sites.

Terrebonne Parish passed a local sales tax to help foot the bill for the plan, which in 2006 was estimated to cost $886.7 million, according to the Corps of Engineers. Thirty-five percent is to be paid by local and state governments.

"If they continue to put this on hold, there won't be anything left of Terrebonne Parish to protect," Parish President Don Schwab said Tuesday. "Terrebonne and Lafourche parishes serve as a buffer to Jefferson and Orleans. We got to quit putting these things on hold. The president needs to bite the bullet."






But it's not just the administration that has raised questions about the levee project. Environmentalists for years have objected to building levees across south Louisiana's wetlands. Critics dubbed the project "The Great Wall of Louisiana." They said it would stop the natural flow of water through the coastal marshes and contribute to coastal erosion, a phenomenon that has made the entire region more vulnerable to hurricane storm surge.

Proponents of the massive levee building program have suggested so-called "leaky levees" that would permit the movement of tidal waters, but skeptics said the technology is unproven.

The nonprofit group Coalition to Restore Coastal Louisiana was among those opposing the plan on environmental grounds. Former coalition director Mark Davis, now a Tulane University professor, said he fears the Bush administration is seizing on environmental concerns to kill a project it doesn't want to pay for.

Davis said the administration hasn't raised similar objections to the Donaldsonville-to-the-Gulf levee project which, in his view, poses more substantial environmental hazards.

"If their concerns are technical, those can be worked out," Davis said. "If their concerns are budgetary, which concerns me most, then it's a more ominous signal that they aren't ready to commit to anything down here."
Cane,
It looks like all of south FL will finally get soaked through the weekend...I feel like I should congratulate y'all or something. I know many prayers were answered yesterday.

How long was the area below normal annual precip...has to be 6 or 7 years aye?
Good morning...

Big times rains across south florida last night with 24 hour totals reaching 2.90 inches.Today looks rather wet during the second half of the day but i do not expect a repeat performance.Adrian

Adrian's Weather
Pat, Is that levee project to be from Donaldsonville down LA 1 to Fourchon?
No..that is a DOTD highway raising Project..not related to this levee.
Morning everybody! :)

Finally got a little rain in Myrtle Beach this morning, rain we desperately needed!

not a drought buster, but welcomed for sure!
Where do they want this Levee?
hi Thel
Wilmington NC here
we have gotten a little rain
need more
Tuesday's rain not enough to ease drought

BY KATHLEEN McGRORY
MiamiHerald.com

Thunderstorms may have rocked Miami-Dade and Broward counties Tuesday night, but the rainfall was a relative drop in the bucket -- at least as far as drought conditions go, meteorologists and water management officials said.

In short, the water restrictions are still on.

''The rain was enough to help people's lawns, but that's about it,'' said Nestor Yglesias, a spokesman for the South Florida Water Management District. ``It definitely wasn't enough to alleviate the drought conditions.''

According to the National Weather Service, the rainfall was heaviest over Miami, where residents saw between 2 and 3 1/3 inches fall before midnight. The northern part of Miami-Dade County picked up 1 inches, while Broward County picked up an inch.

In the aftermath of the downpours, rainfall amounts for both counties surpassed average monthly levels, said Andy Tingler, a National Weather Service meteorologist.

But don't expect the water restrictions to ease up just yet.

Many South Florida communities rely on water from Lake Okeechobee and lake levels remain five feet below normal, Yglesias said.

''You don't replace a five-foot deficit with three inches of rain,'' he said.

The good news: Expect more showers Wednesday. There's a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms throughout the region, Tingler said.


Patrap...that's something to ponder. An additional hundred thousand million to extend a war which was declared won several years ago. Now that's a million dollars per soldier by the way, and only to cover a few months expenses. But not the tiniest fraction of that amount could be spent on a levee project. Would that be called misappropriation?
But it's not just the administration that has raised questions about the levee project. Environmentalists for years have objected to building levees across south Louisiana's wetlands. Critics dubbed the project "The Great Wall of Louisiana." They said it would stop the natural flow of water through the coastal marshes and contribute to coastal erosion, a phenomenon that has made the entire region more vulnerable to hurricane storm surge.


And they're right. Let's face it...the root of the problem isn't hurricanes, and probably not even the massive scarring of the land by carving out all of the pipeline canals...it's the fact that sediment isn't allowed to flow through the system...replinishing the ever shrinking land areas. There is no easy fix. And another point. How much of the water behind the proposed levee is PRIVATE, according to the courts of LA. I for one wouldn't want my tax $$$ going to protect something I have no legal access to. LA needs to get things straight with regards to their corrupt legal climate and their good ole boy politics before they can expect everybody to throw money at them. I know that's a hard thing to accept, but as a south LA native and long time (27 years) resident, I know about what I speak. It's almost impossible to drive a boat anywhere within the proposed levee site without breaking the law by trespassing...ON TIDAL WATERS!!! It's ridiculous.
If concrete barriers were organizing assaults to unhinge themselves in the name of the Levee God, then we'd have an arguement..
South Florida RadarLink

Here comes more to rain to the west!
yep, as long as the mighty Mississippi dumps all our top soil off the continental shelf...no more marsh for you. Ideally we would need a channel through Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Then build a canal and set of locks north at least to Baton Rouge. It would really need to go to Three Rivers. Then they could let the river flood naturally below Baton Rouge and reclaim the land on its own.
Gale force winds expected Sat
Storm force winds expected sun
Forecast as of 10:30 am EDT on April 11, 2007
Hatteras Canyon To Cape Fear Out To 34n 71w To 32n 73w
Whittier, CA

Days without Rain 12
Rain since July 1st of 2006 2.21
Rainfall This Month 0.00 in
Days With Rain This Year (Jan - Dec) 14 Days

This means that when it did this year the aveage storm brought less then 0.16 inches of rain.

Franck...If you don't mind telling, do you live anywhere near south LA? The reason I ask is only because I wonder if you understand the geography of the area. If you look at any map, it's easy to see where the Mississippi River, for eons, has dumped sediment. It's the land in the extreme southeast part of the state...the boot heel, if you will. Now, the river is not allowed to dump sediment, because it is leveed to protect residential areas from flooding during normal high water periods, such as after the spring thaw. (Understand that the Mississippi drains the entire US) If you are able to access any old maps, even 20-30 year old maps, it's blatantly obvious that the land is disappearing at an alarming rate. I'm only 38 years old, and I can remember going to Venice, LA as a young child, and seeing 3 seperate bays as we crossed over the bridge at Empire, LA. Now, you can only see water, for as far as the eye can see. The land is eroding, but it is also sinking, and lately, there are reports that it is even sliding into the Gulf. The river has to be allowed to dump sediment in order for it to rebuild the years of land loss. There are a few "diversions" along the river...they are opened during certain times of the year allowing river water to infiltrate the marsh. They do work, but on such a small scale that at best, they will slow the erosion...not reverse it. Sort of like prolonging the agony in my opinion. But that's where you get into the good ole boy network...the oyster fishermen sue the powers that be, claiming that the river water is going to make the oysters move to other areas, as they cannot thrive in fresh water. They claim it will put them out of a job. I don't know the exact #'s, but there are VERY few oyster fishermen in LA, and I think they should bite the bullet, and move with the oysters, whereever they may go. People move with their jobs all the time...you do what you have to do to survive. But even though they are small in #, they are a powerful lobby. LA politics at it's best. That, in my honest opinion, is why the federal government is hesitant to throw money at the State of Louisiana...especially for a project that, in the long run, is liable to do more harm than good.
Cajunkid, although I don't disagree with you exactly, I can't help but wonder what such a canal would do with regards to storm surge from a hurricane. Seems like if it hit the right place, surge would be funneled up the canal, like it was the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet(MRGO). That is what was feared, and eventually realized, by St. Bernard Parish residents.
jake, they would need to dredge a channel through the two lakes. Then a set of locks at the northwest end of Lake Maurepas would stop surge from entering a canal dredged to Baton Rouge.
Where would that allow the sediment to go? I know Patrap's post was about Terrebone/Lafourche parishes, but what about Plaquemine, St. Bernard, Lower Jefferson, and other parishes affected by coastal erosion? I agree though that instead of building levees, let the sediment from the largest river on the continent do the work for you...the work it was designed to do, naturally.
Imagine how much that would cut off the trip from the mouth of the river (with all the bends and turns) to Baton Rouge. Remember that the levees also serve in keeping the water level in the river high enough for ship to pass all the way to the Red River.
Where would that allow the sediment to go?

They would have to build more diversions on both sides of the river down from BR to the mouth.
I see. I would be more in favor of that than any proposed levees, but I'm not sure if it would be enough. It certainly is better than doing nothing, but as I said, the oyster fishermen would likely keep it in courts so long, it would be too late, even if they failed in stopping it, which is not a given in LA. I like the plan, though.
it would kill the port of N.O. too! Nothing like this idea will ever happen.
jake...in that case a decision must be made as to whether the area should remain/become a coastal wetlands reserve, or humans should claim/reclaim the land as a human habitat. One thing is for sure, so many people love the area, it would thrive for humans if it were better protected from flood.
Afternoon all. Good to see you cajun...

Listen I must admit I have not read all of this discussion, but when you talk about something killing the port of NO I think you should keep in mind that one day, wether this year or 100 years from now...The port of NO will be dead anyway. One day a true CAT 4 or 5 will hit that area just the right way and all the money in the world will not be able to bring that area back to life...I am not saying cut our loses and get out of NO, what I am saying though is that something needs to be done protect that area on a massive scale or we need to start slowly relocating the city...
good to see you too StormJunkie

Its a touchy situation to say the least.
Agreed CK.

Hopefully nothing gets in the Gulf with low shear this year, or the SE coastal waters for that matter. Acording to the APL SST maps in my blog things are already pretty warm out there. Maybe this cool snap will help a little.

Got to get back to work. Catch y'all later.

jake...in that case a decision must be made as to whether the area should remain/become a coastal wetlands reserve, or humans should claim/reclaim the land as a human habitat. One thing is for sure, so many people love the area, it would thrive for humans if it were better protected from flood.

Quite the opposite...the area will cease to EXIST if river flooding, in some form or fashion, is not allowed to happen. I think that's the thing people not familiar with the area don't understand. In fact, plenty of people familiar with the area don't even understand, or care. Maybe they just look at the short term, and don't worry about what they leave behind.

Stormjunkie is absolutely correct, except it may not even take a true Cat 4 or 5 to do irreversible damage. In fact, it may not even take a storm at all. The marsh was eroding rapidly before Katrina/Rita were ever even thought about. Bottom line...since the levees were constructed, and especially since the MRGO was constructed, erosion has been highly acclerrated in south LA. The few diversions that exist were constructed in the 90's, and had nothing to do with response to any storm. The NOLA area hadn't experienced a serious hurricane since Betsy in 1965. Andrew struck in '92, but was a very small storm...area wise..., that affected areas far west of NOLA, such as Morgan City, Houma, Berwick, Franklin, etc...
I also think all of Congress (not just this administration) is leaning towards some hard realizations about NO. Sad...but I'll shut up now, sorry for getting away from Doc's subjects
Here is what you do! Find a worst case scenario flood map of the New Orleans area. And go buy as much land as you can on the outskirts of the flood area. In due time you will have water front property on your hands. IMO it is not a question of will it happen but, when it will happen.
Exactly TCW.

No need to apoligize CK. You are on point. This is tropical related and we are not bickering...
"Posted By: StormJunkie
Listen I must admit I have not read all of this discussion, but when you talk about something killing the port of NO I think you should keep in mind that one day, wether this year or 100 years from now...The port of NO will be dead anyway. One day a true CAT 4 or 5 will hit that area just the right way and all the money in the world will not be able to bring that area back to life...I am not saying cut our loses and get out of NO, what I am saying though is that something needs to be done protect that area on a massive scale or we need to start slowly relocating the city..."

SJ,

I made similar comments a week or so ago, and several people were not happy.....

But I agree with you 100%! As I stated then, I agree with rebuilding New Orleans "this time"..... But should we have another disaster, which frankly I agree is inevitable, I will have to re-think my support.

Please, the good people of NO and La., don't misconstrue my point, but personally I believe it is irresponsible to live below sea level in a major hurricane zone....... I personally would never put my family in that position.....
But I do have a lot of respect for the people of NO and La., and I prey that further disasters are averted..... but I have great concern!

No Stella, No Stanley, but a Streetcar Named Desire Visits New York City
Jennifer S. Altman for The New York Times

7
Parked in Times Square, a streetcar named Desire promotes New Orleans.


By ANTHONY RAMIREZ
Published: April 11, 2007

Yesterday, on a street in Times Square, there were no azaleas or Spanish moss, no hot and fetid air, no maligned wives in slips or coarse husbands in torn T-shirts, no New Orleans of the imagination at all.

Jennifer S. Altman for The New York Times

After a day in New Jersey, the streetcar arrived in New York on Monday evening.

But there was, on windy West 44th Street, parked outside the television studios of Good Morning America, a streetcar named Desire.

Almost the length of a modern subway car, it was a green beauty of polished wooden benches and clanging bells, designed to look circa 1948, the period of the Tennessee Williams play. The front of the car reads, Desire. Inside, vintage advertisements span the car. Romance Never Starts From Scratch, reads a Burma Shave ad.

The entire car, which arrived from New Jersey on Monday evening and will remain in place today, was a promotional ploy by a tourist board to get more people to visit New Orleans, where there are few streetcars running and few neighborhoods rebuilt since the levees broke during Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Its almost a tale of two cities, said J. Stephen Perry, president of the New Orleans Metropolitan Convention and Visitors Bureau, as he sat in the streetcar. We have some outlying post-World War II neighborhoods that suffered damage that is incomprehensible. But the original city that the tourists come to the French Quarter, the Garden District and the Arts District are not only intact, but look better than they did before the storm.

Tourism is vital to New Orleans, Mr. Perry said. It is the citys largest business, he said, worth billions of dollars, supplying nearly a third of the city budget and employing some 85,000 residents.

But the citys streetcar system is struggling. Before Katrina, some two million passengers a year hopped onto as many as 30 streetcars at rush hour, said Rosalind Blanco Cook, spokeswoman for the New Orleans Regional Transit Authority.

Now, as few as six cars are running on a system that will not be fully restored until spring 2008. On a good day, Ms. Cook said, several hundred tourists take the streetcars on the riverfront line.

As for the streetcar in Times Square yesterday, with its many parts and pieces added over the years, its provenance is as mixed as that of any old New Orleans family. Built in 1922, the 800 series car ran in New Orleans until 1964, when streetcar service was sharply reduced.

Like other vintage streetcars donated to museums, the car was sent to the Shore Line Trolley Museum in East Haven, Conn., where it was mothballed for decades. Finally, it came out of storage in 1995 and was restored, off and on, over five years.

Much of it is new. The restoration cost for materials alone was $100,000. The labor could have cost more than $500,000, but most of it was volunteer, according to Richard Slinsky, an electronics consultant and one of the Trolley Museum volunteers involved in the project.

The reason it was restored to the 1948 era, rather than the 1922 era, was the scarcity of spare parts and documentation from the earlier period, Mr. Slinsky said.

Is it really one of the streetcars named Desire on the French Quarter line that inspired Tennessee Williamss play title?

Mr. Slinsky is careful. Its likely, he said. One of the original roll signs that arrived with the car includes the name Desire, as well as Bourbon, Esplanade, Decatur, Elysian Fields, Chartres, Tonti, France and Royal.

As for the car in Times Square yesterday, visitors, many of them youngsters, seemed less fascinated by its history than by the smallness of the wooden benches.

Shaquanna Squalls, 16, a high school student from the Bronx, said, How did they put their legs in? I guess people were a lot shorter back then.
All they are doing is prolonging the inevitable outcome. Pretty soon, when the ocean levels rise, they won't be able to build the levee's high enough or strong enough to stop it.
Yep, I'd rather have this discussion going on than another GW debate/argument. You are right when you say it is sad...but true. On this forum, I can hide behind my computer and suggest things that I know people aren't going to want to accept. But I would hate to be in the public eye saying the same thing. When I say I think the river needs to be allowed to flood, I'm well aware that allowing that will completely displace whole communities, permanently. BUT, if it isn't done now by river flooding, it will eventually be done by Gulf flooding, whether by hurricane storm surge, or just over time erosion.
And Thelmores, I was one of the people in that discussion last week. I didn't exactly disagree with you, I just stated that there are reasons people live there that, as a non NOLA resident/native, you wouldn't understand. Also, there are good reasons not to live in many places, such as fault lines, tornados, etc.

But the fact that NOLA is below sea level really has nothing to do with the coastal erosion we're talking about here. NOLA isn't on the coast...yet. It is, however, getting closer and closer to being on the coast all the time...and when it does get there, it will be Atlantis, the city below the sea, literally. The land in NOLA and surrounding areas sinks...I know, because the slab of my first house was on pilings, and you could see from the front yard to the backyard, UNDER the slab, when I first bought it. I had it filled, and then, like nearly everyone down there, had to add topsoil to my yard every couple of years to keep my yard from sinking away. I'm wondering, and maybe Patrap, or someone else smarter than me can answer, if this sinking is related to the levees, or has it always happened? Let's face it, the entire area, with the exception of a couple of ridges, such as River Ridge, and the Metairie ridge, was built on swampland.
I am in favor of slowly relocating New Orleans based on these two reasons:

1. Rising sea level
2. Potential for another strong strike within 20 years.

I think the area in question should, over time, be returned to its natural state.
Where would it be "relocated"? I'm not arguing that it shouldn't be, but just wondering what ideas people have on the issue. Rising sea level? I guess we'll see. But I really wish we could avoid that topic on here. TCW indicated the same thing, and stated that the levees wouldn't be high enough or strong enough to stop the rising sea level. Even if the sea level does rise from GW, we're talking inches here. The levees, as they are now, are 17' high.
Ferry Cam Live...Big Muddy..Algiers Point Link
For those interested on a good read the NHC updated there list of deadlist,costliest and most intense U.S. tropical systems a few days ago.

Here is the PDF version.


Adrian's Weather
LOL..NAwlins aint going No where folks..and heres why..New Orleans: A Geopolitical Prize

By George Friedman

September 01, 2005 22 30 GMT -- The American political system was founded in Philadelphia, but the American nation was built on the vast farmlands that stretch from the Alleghenies to the Rockies. That farmland produced the wealth that funded American industrialization: It permitted the formation of a class of small landholders who, amazingly, could produce more than they could consume. They could sell their excess crops in the east and in Europe and save that money, which eventually became the founding capital of American industry.

But it was not the extraordinary land nor the farmers and ranchers who alone set the process in motion. Rather, it was geography -- the extraordinary system of rivers that flowed through the Midwest and allowed them to ship their surplus to the rest of the world. All of the rivers flowed into one -- the Mississippi -- and the Mississippi flowed to the ports in and around one city: New Orleans. It was in New Orleans that the barges from upstream were unloaded and their cargos stored, sold and reloaded on ocean-going vessels. Until last Sunday, New Orleans was, in many ways, the pivot of the American economy.

For that reason, the Battle of New Orleans in January 1815 was a key moment in American history. Even though the battle occurred after the War of 1812 was over, had the British taken New Orleans, we suspect they wouldn't have given it back. Without New Orleans, the entire Louisiana Purchase would have been valueless to the United States. Or, to state it more precisely, the British would control the region because, at the end of the day, the value of the Purchase was the land and the rivers - which all converged on the Mississippi and the ultimate port of New Orleans. The hero of the battle was Andrew Jackson, and when he became president, his obsession with Texas had much to do with keeping the Mexicans away from New Orleans.

During the Cold War, a macabre topic of discussion among bored graduate students who studied such things was this: If the Soviets could destroy one city with a large nuclear device, which would it be? The usual answers were Washington or New York. For me, the answer was simple: New Orleans. If the Mississippi River was shut to traffic, then the foundations of the economy would be shattered. The industrial minerals needed in the factories wouldn't come in, and the agricultural wealth wouldn't flow out. Alternative routes really weren't available. The Germans knew it too: A U-boat campaign occurred near the mouth of the Mississippi during World War II. Both the Germans and Stratfor have stood with Andy Jackson: New Orleans was the prize.

Last Sunday, nature took out New Orleans almost as surely as a nuclear strike. Hurricane Katrina's geopolitical effect was not, in many ways, distinguishable from a mushroom cloud. The key exit from North America was closed. The petrochemical industry, which has become an added value to the region since Jackson's days, was at risk. The navigability of the Mississippi south of New Orleans was a question mark. New Orleans as a city and as a port complex had ceased to exist, and it was not clear that it could recover.

The ports of South Louisiana and New Orleans, which run north and south of the city, are as important today as at any point during the history of the republic. On its own merit, the Port of South Louisiana is the largest port in the United States by tonnage and the fifth-largest in the world. It exports more than 52 million tons a year, of which more than half are agricultural products -- corn, soybeans and so on. A larger proportion of U.S. agriculture flows out of the port. Almost as much cargo, nearly 57 million tons, comes in through the port -- including not only crude oil, but chemicals and fertilizers, coal, concrete and so on.

A simple way to think about the New Orleans port complex is that it is where the bulk commodities of agriculture go out to the world and the bulk commodities of industrialism come in. The commodity chain of the global food industry starts here, as does that of American industrialism. If these facilities are gone, more than the price of goods shifts: The very physical structure of the global economy would have to be reshaped. Consider the impact to the U.S. auto industry if steel doesn't come up the river, or the effect on global food supplies if U.S. corn and soybeans don't get to the markets.

The problem is that there are no good shipping alternatives. River transport is cheap, and most of the commodities we are discussing have low value-to-weight ratios. The U.S. transport system was built on the assumption that these commodities would travel to and from New Orleans by barge, where they would be loaded on ships or offloaded. Apart from port capacity elsewhere in the United States, there aren't enough trucks or rail cars to handle the long-distance hauling of these enormous quantities -- assuming for the moment that the economics could be managed, which they can't be.

The focus in the media has been on the oil industry in Louisiana and Mississippi. This is not a trivial question, but in a certain sense, it is dwarfed by the shipping issue. First, Louisiana is the source of about 15 percent of U.S.-produced petroleum, much of it from the Gulf. The local refineries are critical to American infrastructure. Were all of these facilities to be lost, the effect on the price of oil worldwide would be extraordinarily painful. If the river itself became unnavigable or if the ports are no longer functioning, however, the impact to the wider economy would be significantly more severe. In a sense, there is more flexibility in oil than in the physical transport of these other commodities.

There is clearly good news as information comes in. By all accounts, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, which services supertankers in the Gulf, is intact. Port Fourchon, which is the center of extraction operations in the Gulf, has sustained damage but is recoverable. The status of the oil platforms is unclear and it is not known what the underwater systems look like, but on the surface, the damage - though not trivial -- is manageable.

The news on the river is also far better than would have been expected on Sunday. The river has not changed its course. No major levees containing the river have burst. The Mississippi apparently has not silted up to such an extent that massive dredging would be required to render it navigable. Even the port facilities, although apparently damaged in many places and destroyed in few, are still there. The river, as transport corridor, has not been lost.

What has been lost is the city of New Orleans and many of the residential suburban areas around it. The population has fled, leaving behind a relatively small number of people in desperate straits. Some are dead, others are dying, and the magnitude of the situation dwarfs the resources required to ameliorate their condition. But it is not the population that is trapped in New Orleans that is of geopolitical significance: It is the population that has left and has nowhere to return to.

The oil fields, pipelines and ports required a skilled workforce in order to operate. That workforce requires homes. They require stores to buy food and other supplies. Hospitals and doctors. Schools for their children. In other words, in order to operate the facilities critical to the United States, you need a workforce to do it -- and that workforce is gone. Unlike in other disasters, that workforce cannot return to the region because they have no place to live. New Orleans is gone, and the metropolitan area surrounding New Orleans is either gone or so badly damaged that it will not be inhabitable for a long time.

It is possible to jury-rig around this problem for a short time. But the fact is that those who have left the area have gone to live with relatives and friends. Those who had the ability to leave also had networks of relationships and resources to manage their exile. But those resources are not infinite -- and as it becomes apparent that these people will not be returning to New Orleans any time soon, they will be enrolling their children in new schools, finding new jobs, finding new accommodations. If they have any insurance money coming, they will collect it. If they have none, then -- whatever emotional connections they may have to their home -- their economic connection to it has been severed. In a very short time, these people will be making decisions that will start to reshape population and workforce patterns in the region.

A city is a complex and ongoing process - one that requires physical infrastructure to support the people who live in it and people to operate that physical infrastructure. We don't simply mean power plants or sewage treatment facilities, although they are critical. Someone has to be able to sell a bottle of milk or a new shirt. Someone has to be able to repair a car or do surgery. And the people who do those things, along with the infrastructure that supports them, are gone -- and they are not coming back anytime soon.

It is in this sense, then, that it seems almost as if a nuclear weapon went off in New Orleans. The people mostly have fled rather than died, but they are gone. Not all of the facilities are destroyed, but most are. It appears to us that New Orleans and its environs have passed the point of recoverability. The area can recover, to be sure, but only with the commitment of massive resources from outside -- and those resources would always be at risk to another Katrina.

The displacement of population is the crisis that New Orleans faces. It is also a national crisis, because the largest port in the United States cannot function without a city around it. The physical and business processes of a port cannot occur in a ghost town, and right now, that is what New Orleans is. It is not about the facilities, and it is not about the oil. It is about the loss of a city's population and the paralysis of the largest port in the United States.

Let's go back to the beginning. The United States historically has depended on the Mississippi and its tributaries for transport. Barges navigate the river. Ships go on the ocean. The barges must offload to the ships and vice versa. There must be a facility to empower this exchange. It is also the facility where goods are stored in transit. Without this port, the river can't be used. Protecting that port has been, from the time of the Louisiana Purchase, a fundamental national security issue for the United States.

Katrina has taken out the port -- not by destroying the facilities, but by rendering the area uninhabited and potentially uninhabitable. That means that even if the Mississippi remains navigable, the absence of a port near the mouth of the river makes the Mississippi enormously less useful than it was. For these reasons, the United States has lost not only its biggest port complex, but also the utility of its river transport system -- the foundation of the entire American transport system. There are some substitutes, but none with sufficient capacity to solve the problem.

It follows from this that the port will have to be revived and, one would assume, the city as well. The ports around New Orleans are located as far north as they can be and still be accessed by ocean-going vessels. The need for ships to be able to pass each other in the waterways, which narrow to the north, adds to the problem. Besides, the Highway 190 bridge in Baton Rouge blocks the river going north. New Orleans is where it is for a reason: The United States needs a city right there.

New Orleans is not optional for the United States' commercial infrastructure. It is a terrible place for a city to be located, but exactly the place where a city must exist. With that as a given, a city will return there because the alternatives are too devastating. The harvest is coming, and that means that the port will have to be opened soon. As in Iraq, premiums will be paid to people prepared to endure the hardships of working in New Orleans. But in the end, the city will return because it has to.

Geopolitics is the stuff of permanent geographical realities and the way they interact with political life. Geopolitics created New Orleans. Geopolitics caused American presidents to obsess over its safety. And geopolitics will force the city's resurrection, even if it is in the worst imaginable place
There was a NASA Study in 2003 that found that there was a 0.1% increase in solar radiation (during the quiet sunspot period) over the past 2 solar cycles which amounts to 0.05% increase per decade and speculates that IF this has been occuring over the past century then "it would have provided a significant component of Global warming".

A similar 0.1% increase in global temperatures over that 24 year period would be equal to about 0.3 degrees C which is not far from what has been measured.

My question is has there been any follow-up studies to this one?
"Posted By: jake436
But the fact that NOLA is below sea level really has nothing to do with the coastal erosion we're talking about here."

Hate to disagree Jake, but I think it is a very important point. Think about it for a moment..... If you were building a new, never before city the size of NO..... and were searching for possible locations..... be honest here, would you consider a site "below sea level" to build your new city. I think a large majority of people here would say no way! This is exactly my point.....

Not to mention, the coastal erosion, and loss of wetlands has made NO even more vulnerable..... so I would say coastal erosion, and NO being below sea level has to be discussed.

This is all hypothetical, and like I said before, I pray NO is spared until the end of time..... but what happens if.......
sorry Fred..... that info doesn't fit the template.......

oops, sry, I should know better! LOL

Hey where is Gulf today? We need some more humor!
Thelmores, what I meant was that NOLA isn't below sea level because of coastal erosion. Of course you are right when you say if coastal erosion isn't addressed, and fixed, NOLA will become increasingly vulnerable. But it has always been vulnerable...see Betsy, 1965. Like I said earlier, erosion has been terrible in just the past 30 years. There was so much more land protecting NOLA in '65, yet it was still underwater after Betsy, a Cat 3 storm, hit the area. If Betsy had taken the same path as Katrina...east of the city...it too would've dumped surge in the MRGO and Lake Pontchartrain, and most likely with similar results.
And Patrap's right...NOLA is where it is because it HAS to be where it is. I'm not suggesting dropping the levees to flood NOLA. I'm saying drop the levees below NOLA, and then maybe add diversions, as CK suggested, above NOLA. NOLA must exist...it's the largest port in the country.
not where is gulf, where has gulf been as of late. Anymore information on whether south florida is looking at some drought impacting rain or not in the near future? I had heard also that there was a chance for a cool down coming, whats up with that I thought winter was over already for the East coast of the US
There was a good rainfall over the past 2 days in the Tampa Bay area and some rain made it down across southern Florida last night.
plywoodstatenative miami's 24 hour rain totals were impressive with 2.90 inches falling.Today's weather looks to be on the cloudy side with peaks of sun.The florida keys have been getting some rain during the moring hours but in my opinion this rain will stay to our south as the area of rain will push off the coast.A cool down is expected this weekend into sunday-monday time frame with temps falling in the range of 60-65 degrees overnight.For the remainder of this week temps look quite hot across south florida with temps approaching 85-87 degress.Adrian

Adrian's Weather
Good evening from sunny Portugal (although there is a thunderstorm in progress in nearby Lisbon). Sorry to get a little off the subject right now but I just read this article in the April 9th issue of TIME Europe. Just thought it was interesting that global warming was thought of as far back as the 1890s!!

Svante Arrhenus was a little-known Swedish chemist who in the 1890s issued a remarkable warning: Keep pumping carbon dioxide into the air the way humanity has been doing since the dawn of the industrial age (around 1750), he said, and you can double the level of the heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere, raising temperatures dramatically.

Few people listened to Arrhenius then, as few people listened in the next century to others who issued the same warning, a little louder each time. TIME came late to global warming by the standards of the Swedish chemist, but early by most measures. We published our first cover story on the topic in October 1987. "It is too soon to tell whether unusual global warming has indeed begun," wrote Michael D. Lemonick. But if the climate did begin to change, we could expect "dramatically altered weather patterns, major shifts of deserts and fertile regions, intensification of tropical storms and a rise in sea level."
Good evening from sunny Portugal (although there is a thunderstorm in progress in nearby Lisbon). Sorry to get off the subject for a moment but I just read this article in the April 9th issue of TIME Europe. Just thought it interesting that global warming was thought of as far back as the 1890s!!
Svante Arrhenus was a little-known Swedish chemist who in the 1890s issued a remarkable warning: Keep pumping carbon dioxide into the air the way humanity has been doing since the dawn of the industrial age (around 1750), he said, and you can double the level of the heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere, raising temperatures dramatically.

Few people listened to Arrhenius then, as few people listened in the next century to others who issued the same warning, a little louder each time. TIME came late to global warming by the standards of the Swedish chemist, but early by most measures. We published our first cover story on the topic in October 1987. "It is too soon to tell whether unusual global warming has indeed begun," wrote Michael D. Lemonick. But if the climate did begin to change, we could expect "dramatically altered weather patterns, major shifts of deserts and fertile regions, intensification of tropical storms and a rise in sea level."

Sorry it posted twice. It didnt show the first time.
What level Shear affects tropical systems? 850-500?
Well I think we may be in for another shot for rain in N central and NW fla. And the South East as the approaching cold front interacts with low pressure and a warm front in the gulf. If we dont get any then there is always this weekend that is looking like its going to be quite a show in the Entire SE.


NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 11 2007
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST. INTERESTING CLOUD
SIGNATURE/GRAVITY WAVES ARE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT BETWEEN
BROWNSVILLE AND SE LOUISIANA...THAT LED TO THE RECENT SW TO NW
WIND SHIFT AT BUOY 42019. HAVE OPTED WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
WITH THIS ON THE 1500 UTC MAP PER COORDINATION WITH HPC. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS SE FROM THE FL/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE NE GULF NEAR
29N84W...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE RECENTLY LIFTED N ALONG THE FL
PANHANDLE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING JUST S OF THIS
BOUNDARY NOTED FROM TALLAHASSEE RADAR IMAGERY. MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS NOTED AROUND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED
WITH DYNAMICS AHEAD OF A FLATTENING MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES FROM ALL THE
RECENT CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION
WILL BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THU AS IT HEADS SE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT...THIS ONE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH STRONGER...IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE NW GULF EARLY SAT INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN
AHEAD OF IT AND BRINGING ABOUT A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS THIS
WEEKEND. WINDS/SEAS WILL ALSO BE STRONGER BOTH IN ADVANCE AND
BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT.

There are a few areas they are watching for bad weather this afternoon. Alabama and the midsection


Looks like one possibly TWO tornadoes on the ground in Alabama now
Stopped in for a few minutes & would like to ask a couple of ??'s about NO. I find all of your comments interesting & informative. What puzzles me is 2 things. First, NO has dropped 5 feet below sea level since 1929. Because of that, how can one see anything but inevitable destruction for NO unless some of the erosion,etc., is addressed & in a major way. The second ? is: Didn't the government declare that there would be no building or rebuilding in natural flood plains & wetlands, after all of the 100 & 500 year floods on the Mississippi several years ago? I know that we even had those issues here in Kansas in some areas with some flooding we had & people were not allowed to rebuild. I understand that an entire city is more serious than a few homes here & there but that also means more lost lives.
Correction, NO has dropped an additional 5 feet below sea level since 1929. Sorry.
850-200 hellsniper.
850-200 lol! thats very thorough!!!

Hey check out the hail in Ala now

Chance of Severe Hail / Chance of Hail / Max Hail Size
100% / 100% / >4.00 in.

Ga is in line next:

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 124 CONTINUES.

NEW DOWNSTREAM WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN AL
INTO WRN/CENTRAL GA BY 21-22Z.
Looks like the storm chasers & weathermen get no rest for today or tonight. My prayers go out to everyone in the path of these storms.
SBGod, NOLA isn't dropping because of coastal erosion. IMHO, it's dropping FASTER since 1929 because of the fact that the river hasn't been allowed to flood the area with sediment. But NOLA was built basically on a swamp, and the land sinks, period. The coastal erosion problem that we were discussing has really nothing to do with NOLA being below sea level, or NOLA sinking. It is a different problem altogether.

Just like Patrap posted earlier, NOLA HAS to exist, because without the port and the energy that comes from the area, the nation as a whole would suffer. Therefore, I think some allowance would be made for rebuilding, whether there are laws on the books or not.
296. Inyo
like others said, the area is sinking, because sediment is compacting and organic matter is decaying. it was only able to sustain itself with many sediment-rich floods. Its impossible to keep a permanent city on a delta like that... at best they could maybe keep new orleans as an island and turn the best into marsh as a buffer. The only options are: keep the area as a marsh, or let it wash away and have a new marsh form inland, probably in your city or farm field.

The same thing is happening in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta in California. It doesnt have quite as many people living in it, but if it floods, much of the water supply in southern California will be threatened, including the southern half of the Central Valley. You think the droughts are bad now? Try it without the California Aqueduct.
Hellsniper223~ weak shallow systems can escape the effects of shear higher up (200-500). As a storm gets stronger it rises higher in the atmosphere where effects of higher shear can take a toll.
Jake & INYO, I'm a plains girl, all my life so I didn't really understand the reasons for NO dropping, I stand corrected. About the rebuilding laws though, I still stand on that because of what you just said, the flooding is necessary. I do understand that the port needs to be there. But people commute all the time to jobs, so I still don't believe that it should be allowed to repopulate as heavily. At most, those necessary to sustain the port. Changes should be made now, not after thousands more lose their lives & everything else. At some point, the tourism, etc. will need to move further inland.
Thanks Sky and WBK. :)
Does anyone have the numbers from the latest TSR report that came out April 3rd? Either the link is broken or my computer is!!! so frustrating!

I just want to know if it changed much from March.

Thanks!
301. Rodek
Just got off the phone with my brother (police officer) in Valley Alabama... He said a tornado with large hail passed south of him near Smith's Station.


Yea that tornado near Columbus does look nasty!

Looks like a stormy nite for Fla./Ga./Sc heck the hole east coast!

everybody stay safe!
hey...... what good is a picture with no commentary! :D
Not sure what is up MissBennet! I can get to the TSR and click on the forcast and times out the download because it is going too slow! Maybe they are having problems with thier site.
I can't get into it either, although there are news articles everywhere that mention their forecast, like this one:

Experts see active hurricane season
Forecasters say breakup of El Nio could bring plenty of named storms and a few big ones.

By CATHY ZOLLO


H-T SCIENCE WRITER


cathy.zollo@heraldtribune.com

Top hurricane forecasters say the reprieve that the 2006 hurricane season brought is over, and that 2007 has a flurry of storms in store for the United States.

The William Gray-Phil Klotzbach team at Colorado State University and the British group Tropical Storm Risk on Tuesday both increased the numbers from their December forecasts, and are now calling for 17 named storms and nine hurricanes.

Five of those storms will be Category 3 or stronger, with winds of at least 111 mph, Gray-Klotzbach predicted. Tropical Storm Risk predicted that four hurricanes will be severe.

The groups also are predicting a higher likelihood that hurricanes will strike the U.S. coastline, with the Colorado State team calling for a 50 percent chance that a hurricane will hit Florida. That is up from 31 percent in an average year.

Overall, they say, there's a 74 percent chance of a hurricane hitting the U.S. coast has a 74 percent compared with 52 percent in an average year.

Mark Saunders and his team at Tropical Storm Risk expects five tropical storms to hit the U.S. coast, of which two will be hurricanes.

Both groups have been among the most accurate forecasters and are used by the insurance industry in analyzing risks for upcoming storm seasons.

The forecast groups say the increased numbers are largely due to a disintegrating El Nio.

A strong El Nio brings heavy winds to Atlantic that knocks down storms trying to build. But by January, El Nio forecasters predicted the warming of Pacific equatorial waters was waning.

"The El Nio conditions present since September 2006 dissipated rapidly during February," Saunders said. "This has increased the expectation since (February) that weak La Nina conditions will occur during the summer."

That means trade winds in the Caribbean will be weaker than he had expected.

"This factor will increase cyclonic vorticity and cause more storms to be spun up," he said.

Vorticity is swirl in the atmosphere, much like a whirlpool in water.

Saunders also considers ocean temperatures in the region where most hurricanes form because because hurricanes feed on heat. Water that is warmer than usual -- what they expect -- means more fuel for more storms.

Gray, who was among the first to predict storm activity months ahead of a coming season, uses a similar method and looks at ocean temperatures for the same reason.

He and lead author of the forecast Phil Klotzbach also look at atmospheric pressure at sea level in the Southern Atlantic and ocean temperatures in the Southeastern Pacific. Those give them some idea about winds in the Atlantic during the coming hurricane season.

Right now, those indicate light winds during the season, another indicator of a busy year.

"The combination of these three predictors is calling for an active season this year," Klotzbach said.

The predictions announced Tuesday are higher than ones the teams put out in December. At that point, Gray and Klotzbach were calling for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three of them intense.

Tropical Storm Risk was expecting 16 named storms, nine hurricanes, of which it expected four to be intense.


Speaking of ENSO, I am surprised that they haven't noticed this:


Weak La Nina conditions???
WOW...4" Hail in Phenix City, Alabama.....mann, that size will come through the roof. Hope everyone has their helmets on.
There's more coming, and the one that looks as though it will pass just north of Tampa (M7) has some decent hail with it.

Link
Orlando is really about to get it.

I think the hernando stuff is headed my way. I got to go put tools away!

Sky you might get some of this too.
I am in hernando county and we are getting hit big time!! Thunder, lightening, and hail!!
Good evening.
yea STL, thats not exactly what you call weak..., notice the way above normal temperatures in the GOM just off the coast of the FL Panhandle, if that were to stay at that level it would potentially be a very good aid in strengthening just before landfall of a tropical system. That being said, its a couple months for that to even be an area to worry about something strong hitting, so its not really something to take much notice of now. Just a thought, cause I am bored.
Hello Everyone. Been a while since Ive dropped by. But with the rumbling and flashing goin on outside here in Largo (Tampa Area). I thought Id stop in and see what the topic of dicussion was and take a look at some of the radars. No hail to report here in Largo jake. Just a nice show.
weird
LOL..NAwlins aint going No where folks..and heres why..New Orleans: A Geopolitical Prize
My weather nose is smelling a significant amount of reports of severe weather the rest of today.
Tour..1920's Nawlins
ok looks like they fixed the TSR link, and not much has changed.
16.7 Tropical storms
9.2 for hurricanes and
4.2 for intense hurricances.
That's acctually down a hair from the March report.
LOL! Here's the link:
Link
Hey Pat, I think I saw a bum get beat up during Mardi Gras in one of those old alleys...
Prefrontal trof bringing more heavy into south florida during the next hour or so.Rotation showing up on radar with possible hail.





morning all.....

The rain is gone in Myrtle beach, and lots of sun, already 70f....

hope everybody has a good day! :)
cell with possible large hail!

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Line is not weakend much and will be pushing into miami dade and broward counties!


Get ready Miami...

Link
Rotation showing up in several areas!


329. SMU88
hurricane23 where do you get that map on the oncoming thunderstorms?
I can hear the thunder already...
Link
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING!


Dr. Gray disagrees strongly with the alamists. I'm curious as to what Dr. Masters thinks about his recent comments.