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Hong Kong Braces for Category 3 Typhoon Usagi

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:25 PM GMT on September 21, 2013

Dangerous Category 3 Typhoon Usagi is charging through the Luzon Strait between Taiwan and the Philippines on its way towards China, where landfall is expected early Monday morning local time (near 2 pm EDT on Sunday) near Hong Hong. The typhoon battered the northern Philippine Batanes Islands overnight with wind gusts of up to 155 mph (250 kph), ripping down power lines and damaging crops, according to the South China Morning Post. Torrential rains of over a foot (305 mm) have fallen in 24 hours over eastern Taiwan, where Usagi's counterclockwise flow of moist air rode up over the high mountains of the island. Usagi reached its peak strength on Thursday, taking advantage of low wind shear and very warm waters 30°C with high heat content, to intensify to a Category 5 super typhoon with 160 mph winds. On Friday, Usagi began an eyewall replacement cycle that the typhoon is still attempting to complete. This process, where the inner eyewall collapses and a new, larger-diameter eyewall forms from an outer spiral band, typically causes a reduction in intensity by one Saffir-Simpson category, but spreads out the storm's hurricane-force winds over a larger area. Satellite images show that Usagi has lost its symmetry and the cloudtops have warmed, indicating weakening; this weakening is likely due to disruption of the low-level inflow by the high mountains of Taiwan. Wind shear is low, near 10 knots, but ocean temperatures have cooled to about 29°C, and the heat content of the waters is much lower than on Friday.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Usagi, taken at approximately 04:30 UTC on September 21, 2013. At the time, Usagi was a Category 4 typhoon with 140 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Rainfall in Taiwan for the 24-hour period ending at 12 pm EDT (midnight in Taiwan) on Saturday, September 21, 2013. Rainfall amounts in excess of 300 mm (11.81", yellow colors) fell in less than 24 hours in several regions. Image credit: Central Weather Bureau.

Forecast for Usagi
Continued slow weakening of Usagi is likely as the storm tries to complete its eyewall replacement cycle as ocean temperatures cool to 28°C and the heat content of the water diminishes. By the time Usagi reaches the coast near Hong Hong in the early morning hours on Monday (local time), the storm should be at Category 2 strength. This is still strong enough to pose a formidable storm surge, wind, and heavy rain threat to China, and Usagi is likely to be one of the five strongest typhoons to affect Hong Hong in the past 50 years. If the eye of the storm hits just west of Hong Kong, a large storm surge capable of causing over a billion dollars in damage will inundate portions of the coast along the bay that Hong Kong, Macau, and Shenzhen share. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a new post, Hong Kong's typhoon history, detailing the most notable storm's in Hong Hong's history. The most notable typhoon to hit Hong Kong in the past 50 years was Typhoon Rose of 1971, which sank over 300 boats and killed 110 people.


Figure 3. Super Typhoon Usagi, as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite on Thursday, September 19, at 1635 UTC (375-m I-band 5). At the time, Usagi was a Category 5 super typhoon with 160 mph winds. The eye is at its narrowest at the surface, and slopes outward with altitude (like being inside a stadium), so that the cloud temperatures measured in infrared light in this image change dramatically surrounding the eye. The warmest brightness temperature inside the eye in this image is -11°C, which suggests that we are seeing a mid-level cloud deck in the center of the eye. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA/RAMMB/CIRA.


Figure 4. Visible light image from VIIRS taken under the full moon at the same time as the above infrared-light image. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA/RAMMB/CIRA.

Usagi Links
Southeast China radar

The University of Wisconsin CIMSS Satellite Blog has a nice animation showing the trochoidal (wobbling) forward motion characteristic of intense tropical cyclones.


Video 1. Typhoon chaser James Reynolds caught video of some impressive surf from Typhoon Usagi impacting Taiwan on September 21, 2013. His Twitter feed is here. He is now in Hong Hong to document the storm's arrival there.

Vulnerability assessment of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong Province, a 2011 journal article by Li and Li.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. SLU
Quoting 490. CaribBoy:
Well, happy MARCH 23 ! Lol, people in the Lesser Antilles must see a similarity between March 23 and today September 23.... !!!

Well, the Atlantic is dry like.... hell.


A drought advisory may need to issued for the islands soon because we're looking at the prospect of about 8 - 9 months of bone dry weather on the heals of this bust season with well below normal rainfall.
Quoting 498. redwagon:




Some things to watch.


Wow, an Upper Level Low east of the Leewards in September. Is unusual to have that in the MDR at this time of year.
Quoting 497. PensacolaDoug:



Dem jackrabbits get big in Texas!


Quoting 502. Tropicsweatherpr:


Wow, an Upper Level Low east of the Leewards in September. Is unusual to have that in the MDR at this time of year.


Lots of action in the monsoon trough. Any of those spins could wander over into our basin. The disturbance off SA looks interesting, and already has tracks for FL.

I think the rest of the season is FL's.
Quoting 403. pottery:
Good Morning.

If your'e reading this, you made it to another day.
Congratulations.

Give Thanks.


+23
hopefully the nwest gulf disturbance does not develop before florida. looks impressive vis. photo
They reopened the locks yesterday, and are now sending Okeechobee Lake water into the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie estuaries.. again.. sigh..
Good morning from Central OK,

Beautiful day on taps, here - dewpoints are about as low as they can be, and temps very comfortable. Temps expected to increase during the week, close to 90, before the next cool-down begins.

The front currently approaching from the west is expected to lift out to the north - so, no significant precipitation in our immediate future.

With the exception of the low (ex-95L) in the GOM pretending it may do something, the ATL has gone on hiatus for the next couple weeks.

Going out to enjoy the day. Hope you and yours can do the same.

Peace.



Quoting 506. islander101010:
hopefully the nwest gulf disturbance does not develop before florida. looks impressive vis. photo



thats not new its this EX95L you have nothing too worry about wind shear will rip it apart

Taz, I hope you right.. but the shear needs to strip them of their precip too in order to help Florida...
Quoting 510. indianrivguy:
Taz, I hope you right.. but the shear needs to strip them of their precip too in order to help Florida...




i dont think FL wants any more rain
Quoting 489. LargoFl:


NWS in Tampa isn't expecting a TS formation, just a low will form along the front over the NE GOM or northern Florida and push a trough across the state. Rain, winds 15-20mph and possible waterspouts. There could be a brief F0 tornado anywhere in N Florida or C Florida but it's expected in any weather coming in off the GOM.

So unless the GFS and Euro depict a stronger system developing before Weds in the eastern GOM..this will just be a rain event and possible flooding in low lying areas
Today is the 24th anniversary of Hurricane Hugo.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/19 89/Major-Hurricane-Hugo


Link

supposta be a graphic of today's lake level BUT
the R click no longer works for me
Quoting 446. Skyepony:

People have been putting these up for New Years & July 4th here. They scare me.. Youtube is only making that worse..lol..


How are they allowed to even sell them Skye?
Quoting 507. indianrivguy:
They reopened the locks yesterday, and are now sending Okeechobee Lake water into the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie estuaries.. again.. sigh..
I heard that IRG... Is this a catch-22 IRG?
The remnant circulations of 95L has become integrated into the tail-end of the cold front. Unless it separates, which is unlikely, it won't be considered a tropical or subtropical cyclone.
518. JRRP
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3h
During Super Typhoon #Usagi 5-day lifecycle, more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than entire North Atlantic season so far
Quoting 514. aquak9:


Link

supposta be a graphic of today's lake level BUT
the R click no longer works for me
Here you go:

Lake O
521. SLU
Quoting 518. JRRP:
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3h
During Super Typhoon #Usagi 5-day lifecycle, more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than entire North Atlantic season so far


Quantity vs quality.



Quoting 464. washingtonian115:
That fresh canadian air has moved in behind the front.It is nice indeed after a good soaking.


cool this morn
tonight cool and crisp
down to 39
maybe cooler areas outside of city
Nea-

not that one, it has too many moving parts.

The one of the pic of the lake, with the numbers
at the bottom right. Today it is 15.76.

I did not even see that much rain thru central fla
to make the lake go back up. It was below 15.55 for
a little while.
Quoting 518. JRRP:
Ryan Maue %u200F@RyanMaue 3h
During Super Typhoon #Usagi 5-day lifecycle, more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than entire North Atlantic season so far
Not like that's hard to accomplish this year....

Morning all... passing through the blog only long enough to read a few posts and emphasise that the SUN is SHINING in Nassau, New Providence, The Bahamas TODAY!!!!

:O))
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 11:00 AM EDT Sunday 22 September 2013
Condition:Mostly Cloudy
Pressure:29.9 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:49.5°F
Dewpoint:41.9°F
Humidity:75%
Wind:N 13 mph
i really think hurricane season is done for this year has we are starting too get more and more fall like winter storms in fac Montana could be looking at the 1st winter storm watch of the season

527. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1018 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM FL PANHANDLE TO MOUTH OF
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOW PRES NEAR 25.5N94.5W 1002 MB TO 20N97W AND
WILL MEANDER THROUGH MON WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING
TO SPILL IN BEHIND FRONT ACROSS W AND NW PORTIONS. FRONT AND LOW
EXPECTED TO DRIFT N LATE MON THROUGH TUE WITH FRONT DISSIPATING
ACROSS N GULF COASTS. BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRES THEN EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS NW PORTIONS THROUGH THU TO YIELD S TO SW WIND FLOW
ACROSS E HALF OF BASIN.
Quoting 413. Edortiz1988:
Lots of tropical moisture headed toward us here in central Florida. All of the rainfall up here ends up going south down the St. John's river all the way down to lake Okeechobee which is at close to record levels. So, people around the lake must be prepared for some flooding plus the the rain that they may get from this tropical moisture in the GOM heading toward them.


True, a lot of water from Central Florida makes its way South to Lake O and beyond. However, St Johns River does not impact water levels to the South. This river flows to the North and impacts from a flooding event say in Melbourne or Palmbay in Brevard County would impact not only that area but points to the North as Sanford, Deland all the way to Jacksonville if it were severe enough.

Rivers that flow North Link

Now with that being said, the Kissimmee River strongly impacts Lake O and all areas between and beyond. This river was modified ( Channelization )by man dozens of years ago. Our government is speeding billions of dollars now to restore this most important watershed and floodplain back to it original state as close as possible as nature intended.

Link
Quoting 421. Edortiz1988:
I live in metro Orlando but am originally from West Palm Beach. South Florida has most certainly gotten more rain this summer than central Florida so you guys maybe prone to more flooding than us up here with the ground being so saturated. My biggest worry is for my friends around lake okeechobee which is at record levels.


Not necessarily, the west side of Central Florida has been extremely wet. Tampa alone has had about 40 inches of rain since early June, if that isn't wet I don't know what is. Also, that holds true for many locations on the west side of the state.

Back home near Clearwater Florida(Pinellas County), year to date is 48 inches so far, which is near normal, but we only had 6 inches year to date going into June so while we started well below normal for the first 5 months, the rainy season has been even wetter than normal.

Average yearly rainfall in Clearwater area is around 53-56 inches...
Does it make sense to send most of NHC staff to West Pac for rest of season? They could use the help. At least send Berg, Stewart, and Avila. Next, year, I think Berg can handle it by himself here...and early retirement for the rest. Makes sense.
531. IKE
25m
I respect NHC, but not even acknowledging 95L with this pic?
Quoting 526. Tazmanian:
i really think hurricane season is done for this year has we are starting too get more and more fall like winter storms in fac Montana could be looking at the 1st winter storm watch of the season





There's a reason hurricane season runs until November 30.
I always ck out NHC before coming here to see Sat images and get a feel for what's moving out there. Surprised to see the low in the gulf blowing up again at tail of cold front. Showing improvement in circ and convection firing, I think they need to put a circle around it again. Might even be a TS before it reaches Eastern gulf. At least some fun inclement weather headed this way. Usagi sure is pretty to look at.
Quoting 531. IKE:
25m
I respect NHC, but not even acknowledging 95L with this pic?


thats a convincing pic..
Quoting 401. PanhandleChuck:
The blog is running at winter time speeds.
That's because the ATL and the EPac are running at winter-time speeds...

Quoting 416. Neapolitan:
South Florida, too. From this morning's hydrological outlook:

THE LATEST MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THE PWAT VALUES TO BE 2.2 TO
2.4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THIS
WEEK. THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME. SO HAVE KEPT THE HEAVY
RAINFALL WORDING IN THE ZONES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 TO 4
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF ANY TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SETS UP OVER THE AREA THEN THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE MUCH HIGHER.

METRO COLLIER COUNTY HAS SEEN CLOSE TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL HAS MADE THE
GROUNDS OVER METRO COLLIER COUNTY VERY SATURATED. SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
METRO COLLIER COUNTY THROUGH MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK TO SEE IF A
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR METRO COLLIER COUNTY IN LATER
FORECAST PACKAGES.

(FWIW, I live in metro Collier, so I note this with special interest.)
I have to admit I often forget Naples and Marco City when I think about South FL... maybe because I mentally class them w/ West Coast.... but both are as far south as the metro Dade/Broward area...
AWCN11 CWTO 221011
Updated weather summary for all of Southern Ontario and the
National Capital Region
Issued by Environment Canada
Sunday 22 September 2013.

------------------------------------------------- ------------
==weather event discussion==

A slow moving cold front combined with tropical moisture from the
Gulf of Mexico produced bands of heavy rain and scattered
thunderstorms across much of Southern Ontario Friday into
Saturday. The rain has moved to the east of the regions this morning.

General rainfall amounts were between 20 to 40 millimetres. However
in quite a few areas significantly higher amounts were reported.
In particular, a band from Western Lake Erie through London and
Waterloo region toward the Dundalk Highlands received 50 to 100 mm.
Areas Southern Georgian Bay to Bancroft received near 50 mm.

Below are total rainfall amounts since Friday that have been
Reported as of 6:00 AM. Only locales which received 30 mm or
More are included. Several of the reports are from the grand river
and Toronto region conservation authority, as well as trained
Weather spotters and off duty meteorologists.


Location rainfall amount (millimeters)

Harrow 31.2
Kingsville 32.5
Ridgetown 73.2
Chatham 49.0 (as of 8 AM sat)
Kent ridge (se Chatham) 78.0 (as of 10 AM sat)
Blenheim 45.0
New Glasgow 50.0
Tillsonburg 48.5
Sarnia 44.9
Exeter 67.8 (as of 9 AM sat)
Strathroy 79.6 (as of 7 AM sat)
London 103.8
Dorchestor 75.0
Grimsby 51.0
Port Weller 40.5
Welland 47.5
Port Colborne 51.0
Fort Erie 76.6
St. Catharines south end 56.1
Roseville 63.1
Jarvis 83.8
Jamestown (se Wingham) 63.2 (as of 7.30 AM sat)
Fergus shand dam 71.4
Millbank (grca) 82.8
Woolwich (grca) 65.2
Wellesley (grca) 113.4
New Hamburg (grca) 102.6
Cambridge (grca) 46.4
Paris (grca) 49.0
Brantford (grca) 36.6
Burford (grca) 34.6
Laurel creek (grca) 85.4
Conestogo (grca) 69.2
Northwest Waterloo 117.1
Waterloo-Wellington Airport 45.8
Kitchener Stanley Park 50.0
Elora 82.6
Arthur (grca) 93.0
Luther (grca) 89.8
Jamestown (se Wingham) 63.2 (as of 7.30 AM sat)
wroxeter (E Wingham) 73.2
Mount Forest 69.4
Dundalk 69.2
Georgetown 40.0 (EST'd)
Toronto Pearson Airport 37.4
Albion hills (trca) 48.4
Brickworks (trca) 32.8
Clairville dam (trca) 38.8
Dufferin reservoir (trca) 41.9
G ross lord dam (trca) 35.0
Laidlaw precip (trca) 37.2
Oak Ridges (trca) 52.1
Stouffville dam (trca) 40.4
Toronto East York 38.7
Toronto city 31.8
Markham Buttonville Airport 40.6
Vaughan 34.0
Uxbridge 36.4
Baldwin 46.0
Barrie 57.1
Egbert 39.7
Shanty Bay 35.4
Thornbury 34.1
Collingwood 54.0
Orillia 65.0
Muskoka 53.6
Beatrice 36.1
Parry Sound 35.8
Haliburton 42.6
Algonquin east gate 55.1
Bancroft 53.3
Peterborough 30.6
Tapley (sw Peterborough) 36.3
Trenton 30.0
Kingston 38.6
Brockville 38.0
Kemptville 33.8
Pembroke 47.8
Petawawa 30.5


This weather summary contains preliminary information
And may not constitute an official or final report.

END/OSPC
ive had a hazel feeling all season. we'll see
Quoting 537. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


The general direction appears to be a slow drift east? Or is there a slight south component?
Quoting 532. TropicalAnalystwx13:




There's a reason hurricane season runs until November 30.






some of you guys dont get it seems this year is not a norml year i dont care if it runs in tell nov 30th some years it shuts down early like in 2006 the season ended in OCT 2nd and 2009 season ended on nov 10th i think this year the season could end early now we could get one more storm in oct or nove like in 2006 and 2009 season but this season has been like the the 2006 and 2009
Heres another reason for the failed Atlantic Hurricane season: The names of the storms are a joke!

What do you think would be stronger....Kong Rey or "Barry"....Ingrid or Utor?....Chantal or Usagi?

The Pac folks have powerful names and they get powerful storms. Until we start naming storms Nangkhut, Pabuk,or Tiraji...we are destined to be chasing little swirls like 95L for the rest of time.
Quoting 418. barbamz:

Usagi with even cooling cloud top temperatures after landfall (green dots).

Safed image:


Have a nice day everyone; enough posts about Usagi by me ;) And thoughts for the people in China affected by bad Usagi. Will take some time until the bad news about the impacts will reach us.
The WPac is the only playground around these days, so all news is good. The storm behind Usagi looks like it's spinning up also... prolly headed for Taiwan / mainland China as well...

Quoting 429. originalLT:
Just heard a broadcast on the radio from CBS Network News, stating that Usagi will make "landfall late tonight or early tomorrow". Boy are they way off, behind the times, poor reporting there!--This was on my local CBS Station WCBS, their on the hour report, direct from the CBS Network.
Sounds like that's last night's report still being broadcast this morning....

Quoting 433. Pallis:
If you live on land that is low elevation, and do not live in a stilt house, then I suggest you have one built. I went to high school there, and the natives would have Jim Walters build the frame and then finish it themselves. Quite affordable, and you can park your swamp buggy down under.
In the old days here, before "modern" [read Americanized] building practices, people would build their houses up on stone blocks or pillars so that flood waters would pass underneath. These days "everybody's" got a foundation that's lower than the ground around it... :o/

Quoting 437. IKE:
Sorry for your drought SLU.

I had 1.94 inches of rain in the last 24.
This is one reason why Caribboy has been complaining around the blog. Aside from the boredom factor, no rain = no water in cisterns, which means no water for the dry [winter] season...
Quoting 518. JRRP:
Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3h
During Super Typhoon #Usagi 5-day lifecycle, more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than entire North Atlantic season so far
The Atlantic has become a big laughing stock...
Quoting 539. FIUStormChaser:


The general direction appears to be a slow drift east? Or is there a slight south component?
its like the end of the front is spinning its self at the end of the front as the front itself pulls itself out along the gulf coasts

kinda like pulling taffy except this is a cold front being pulled
95L

Ryan Maue %u200F@RyanMaue 23m

@BigJoeBastardi upper-level shear has abated, quite favorable conditions for a TD
Quoting 515. PalmBeachWeather:
How are they allowed to even sell them Skye?


Britain I've seen it noted over 100 have been started by them. A family of four almost didn't get out of their home burnt down by one, another the family died. Outlawed in a few countries. Quick glance at the states~ IL, Maryland, VA, & SC has outlawed them, probably more. SC had an 800acre blaze due to one in Myrtle Beach. FL, $250 fine if you release more then 10. For The 4th I saw atleast 200 float over the area. Sounded like atleast one fire. But the way things get here with the fireworks hard to tell which started that.

Sanya, China where they came from has outlawed them because the airport had too many delays. They can get sucked into airplane engines.
Quoting 522. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


cool this morn
tonight cool and crisp
down to 39
maybe cooler areas outside of city
The leaves are starting to turn at a more nice pace now.Won't be to long before more trees turn orange and dark red.
Quoting 545. washingtonian115:
The Atlantic has become a big laughing stock...
ya its been a big kick in the pants with two months to go there is still some kicking to be done by mom she's in charge
The tropics are dead. Let me know when winter storms start heading for the upper Midwest.
wow seems the whiners are on here in full force today

Oh no, the season is not what we thought, big deal. There are other things more important. Also the activity so far this year has no bearing on what will happen for the rest of it. We very easily could end up with a high impact system next month as the main development areas in October have been largely untouched and those waters are still very warm

If we get a late season storm with high impact, that should shut some people up
Quoting 551. FunnelVortex:
The tropics are dead. Let me know when winter storms start heading for the upper Midwest.



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
931 AM MDT SUN SEP 22 2013

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO POPS TODAY. RADAR WAS SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY AND OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MOVING NE THROUGH E WY. PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE PUSHING N OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING E THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS ALSO MOVING SLOWLY E
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP WELL ON THE
MOISTURE OVER WY THIS MORNING. SREF HOWEVER DID SHOW SOME
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE E BY 00Z TONIGHT. BUFKIT DID NOT
SHOW MUCH CAPE BUT LAPSE RATES WERE STEEP. BASED ON THE ABOVE...
SPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS E THROUGH THE DAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE
AREA AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES LOOKED
REASONABLE GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER ON SATELLITE AND WINDS LOOKED
REPRESENTATIVE BASED ON THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THEIR
WAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING . RADAR DEPICTING THE
FRONT AS A WEST/EAST BOUNDARY WHICH HAS SHIFTED JUST SOUTH OF
BILLINGS THIS HOUR AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST WIND ALONG AND NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON- BILLINGS- MILES
CITY LINE. LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. CAPES AND LI`S ARE VERY
MINIMAL SO ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED.

BY THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH GETS
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER COLORADO AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES BEING IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR PRECIP. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD AREA OF
Q-VECTOR FORCING ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS POWDER
RIVER...CARTER AND FALLON COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS
A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT HIGHER IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER WITH 60S TO
LOWER 70S COMMON...AND POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER TOWARD THE DAKOTA
BORDER.

UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS SHIFT FURTHER EAST MONDAY TAKING
MAJORITY OF PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIKELY ACROSS FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING WITH
JUST A CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS WITH THE STRONG PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME INCONSISTENCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER ENERGY WITH THE
LATEST GFS CUTTING SOME ENERGY OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT
PREVIOUSLY TRACKED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. THAT BEING SAID THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE
SYSTEM INTO IDAHO AND PUTTING A SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS A STRONG PRECIPITATION
PATTERN FOR THE AREA. THUS THE GFS/EC/CANADIAN MODELS ALONG WITH
ENSEMBLE MEAN ALL SHOW 1 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES. THUS THE UNCERTAINTY IS WITH
PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN AREAS (MAINLY ROSEBUD COUNTY EAST). A
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEM A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER TRACK OF UPPER LOW CUTS ACROSS A SHERIDAN TO
MILES CITY LINE THUS AREAS TO THE EAST OF THIS TRACK MISS OUT ON
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM ON TRACK FOR
HEAVY SNOW FOR WESTERN MOUNTAINS BUT BIG HORNS ARE RIGHT ON THE
EDGE TEMPERATURE WISE BETWEEN RAIN/SNOW AS WELL AS BEING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION CUT OFF. FOOTHILLS STILL LOOK
LIKE THEY COULD SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE A GRASSY SURFACE
ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS.

IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD RANGE FROM HEAVY WET SNOWFALL IN
THE FOOTHILLS POSSIBLY CAUSING TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IMPEDING HARVEST.
TRAVEL IMPACTS INCLUDE THE POSSIBLE CLOSING OF THE BEARTOOTH
HIGHWAY SHOULD FORECAST SNOWFALL OCCUR...SLUSHY ROADS IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND OVER BOZEMAN PASS...AND WET ROADS WITH POOR
VISIBILITY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO CHANGE TRACK SO STAY UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST FOR ANY
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HUNTERS AND THOSE WITH OUTDOOR OR
TRAVEL PLANS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY ALERT TO
THIS SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AND PREPARE ACCORDINGLY.

STILL A BIT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER IF FORECAST STAYS ON TRACK MAY
CONSIDER ONE THIS TIME TOMORROW WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO START IN THE
CRAZY AND BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WESTERLY FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL DRY OUT THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH
BACK INTO THE 65 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE. CHAMBERS
Quoting 550. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya its been a big kick in the pants with two months to go there is still some kicking to be done by mom she's in charge
That's if the strong westerlies don't start being kicked up more often by these impressive troughs and fronts that have been coming down.
Quoting 552. Hurricanes101:
wow seems the whiners are on here in full force today

Oh no, the season is not what we thought, big deal. There are other things more important. Also the activity so far this year has no bearing on what will happen for the rest of it. We very easily could end up with a high impact system next month as the main development areas in October have been largely untouched and those waters are still very warm

If we get a late season storm with high impact, that should shut some people up


nobody whining

accepting what it is and yet to come

Quoting 554. Tazmanian:



NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
931 AM MDT SUN SEP 22 2013

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO POPS TODAY. RADAR WAS SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY AND OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MOVING NE THROUGH E WY. PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE PUSHING N OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING E THROUGH
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS ALSO MOVING SLOWLY E
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS WERE NOT PICKING UP WELL ON THE
MOISTURE OVER WY THIS MORNING. SREF HOWEVER DID SHOW SOME
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE E BY 00Z TONIGHT. BUFKIT DID NOT
SHOW MUCH CAPE BUT LAPSE RATES WERE STEEP. BASED ON THE ABOVE...
SPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS E THROUGH THE DAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE
AREA AND INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES LOOKED
REASONABLE GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER ON SATELLITE AND WINDS LOOKED
REPRESENTATIVE BASED ON THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THEIR
WAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING . RADAR DEPICTING THE
FRONT AS A WEST/EAST BOUNDARY WHICH HAS SHIFTED JUST SOUTH OF
BILLINGS THIS HOUR AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST WIND ALONG AND NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON- BILLINGS- MILES
CITY LINE. LITTLE IF ANY IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL WORK ITS WAY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. CAPES AND LI`S ARE VERY
MINIMAL SO ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED.

BY THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH GETS
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER COLORADO AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES BEING IN A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR PRECIP. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD AREA OF
Q-VECTOR FORCING ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS POWDER
RIVER...CARTER AND FALLON COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS
A RESULT...HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT HIGHER IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COOLER WITH 60S TO
LOWER 70S COMMON...AND POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER TOWARD THE DAKOTA
BORDER.

UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS SHIFT FURTHER EAST MONDAY TAKING
MAJORITY OF PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIKELY ACROSS FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING WITH
JUST A CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS WITH THE STRONG PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY. LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME INCONSISTENCIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER ENERGY WITH THE
LATEST GFS CUTTING SOME ENERGY OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT
PREVIOUSLY TRACKED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. THAT BEING SAID THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE
SYSTEM INTO IDAHO AND PUTTING A SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS A STRONG PRECIPITATION
PATTERN FOR THE AREA. THUS THE GFS/EC/CANADIAN MODELS ALONG WITH
ENSEMBLE MEAN ALL SHOW 1 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WESTERN ZONES. THUS THE UNCERTAINTY IS WITH
PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN AREAS (MAINLY ROSEBUD COUNTY EAST). A
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION SEEM A GOOD BET WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY...HOWEVER TRACK OF UPPER LOW CUTS ACROSS A SHERIDAN TO
MILES CITY LINE THUS AREAS TO THE EAST OF THIS TRACK MISS OUT ON
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM ON TRACK FOR
HEAVY SNOW FOR WESTERN MOUNTAINS BUT BIG HORNS ARE RIGHT ON THE
EDGE TEMPERATURE WISE BETWEEN RAIN/SNOW AS WELL AS BEING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION CUT OFF. FOOTHILLS STILL LOOK
LIKE THEY COULD SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT THIS MAY BE A GRASSY SURFACE
ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS.

IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD RANGE FROM HEAVY WET SNOWFALL IN
THE FOOTHILLS POSSIBLY CAUSING TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE TO THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IMPEDING HARVEST.
TRAVEL IMPACTS INCLUDE THE POSSIBLE CLOSING OF THE BEARTOOTH
HIGHWAY SHOULD FORECAST SNOWFALL OCCUR...SLUSHY ROADS IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND OVER BOZEMAN PASS...AND WET ROADS WITH POOR
VISIBILITY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO CHANGE TRACK SO STAY UP WITH THE LATEST FORECAST FOR ANY
CHANGES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HUNTERS AND THOSE WITH OUTDOOR OR
TRAVEL PLANS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY ALERT TO
THIS SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM AND PREPARE ACCORDINGLY.

STILL A BIT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER IF FORECAST STAYS ON TRACK MAY
CONSIDER ONE THIS TIME TOMORROW WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO START IN THE
CRAZY AND BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WESTERLY FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL DRY OUT THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND WILL PUSH
BACK INTO THE 65 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE. CHAMBERS


What part of "upper Midwest" don't you understand?
Quoting 556. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


nobody whining

accepting what it is and yet to come




I only had to look at 3 posts and they all seemed like whining to me. People pouting because we havent had a powerful hurricane or even a hurricane threaten the US.

I bet we get one before the season is out though
While the front is still in the Gulf and Florida, the northern end is exiting the US and entering the Canadian Maritimes.

Quoting 559. LargoFl:


There we see our nor'easter developing from former 95L
Quoting 552. Hurricanes101:
wow seems the whiners are on here in full force today

Oh no, the season is not what we thought, big deal. There are other things more important. Also the activity so far this year has no bearing on what will happen for the rest of it. We very easily could end up with a high impact system next month as the main development areas in October have been largely untouched and those waters are still very warm

If we get a late season storm with high impact, that should shut some people up
LOL.No one is whinning.It's a fact that the Atlantic has been producing pathetic storms and that a typhoon over in the west pacific has accumulated more energy than that of the whole Atlantic hurricane season up until this point.
Quoting 555. washingtonian115:
That's if the strong westerlies don't start being kicked up more often by these impressive troughs and fronts that have been coming down.
there is another strong front for next weekend as well early week


06z gfs

12z is currently running awaiting results

2013 hurricane season quiet, but not over, experts warn

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was kicked off with dire warnings from the National Hurricane Center and Colorado State University climatologists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray that there would be an above average number of hurricanes and severe hurricanes.

With the season just over the Sept. 10 halfway point - often viewed as the most active period - the number of cyclones that have grown big enough to earn names is on track to meet the named-storm predictions. But the number of hurricanes and the number of intense hurricane activity days have lagged well behind, according to forecasters with National Hurricane Center.

In May, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicted a 70-percent chance of there being 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 9 of which would be hurricanes, with 3 to 5 of those being major, with sustained winds greater than 111 mph. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

To date, there have been only nine named storms, of which two were minor hurricanes, said Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and spokesman for the National Hurricane Center. More significantly, the "Accumulated Cyclone Energy" index, which measures the power of hurricanes during the hours they are active, is well below the historical average.

Klotzbach said the storm intensity has measured only between 30 percent and 40 percent of normal for Atlantic hurricane seasons. And he said that in the eastern and northern Pacific Ocean, both the accumulated energy index and the number of tropical cyclones -- which includes depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes, or in the Pacific, cyclones -- also is below normal. To have quiet seasons in all three cyclone basins is very unusual, he said.

Adding to that unusual pattern in the Atlantic are sea surface temperature readings that remain above average. Higher sea surface temperatures are one of the factors often associated with more active seasons, Klotzbach said.

But Feltgen warned against thinking that this year's Atlantic hurricane season is over.

"Think of the season as having just passed halftime," he said. "A lot can happen in the second half, and be very different than the first half."

Louisiana State Climatologist Barry Keim was a bit more limiting in his prediction for the chance of storms hitting the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, including Louisiana, during the rest of the season.

"The window of opportunity for a severe hurricane probably exists only during the next two or three weeks," Keim said. "By mid-October, the chance of a hurricane in the Gulf is very low, and the chance beyond the end of October is pretty nil. We've never had a landfalling hurricane in Louisiana in the month of November."

Only Hurricane Ida, whose outer winds cut across the mouth of the Mississippi River on Nov. 9, 2009, before crossing Mobile Bay the next day, has come close.
october.gifView full sizeAreas where storms generate in October.National Hurricane Center

The 2013 season almost set a record that would mark its relative inactivity, when Humberto became the first hurricane of the season at 4 a.m. Central time on Sept. 11.

"In the satellite era, with continuous coverage of the entire Atlantic basin available via the GOES satellites beginning in 1967, Humberto ranks second for the latest first hurricane formation of the season," Feltgen said.

Including the pre-satellite era, Humberto was the seventh latest, with the all-time first-hurricane record held by a hurricane that formed on Oct. 8, 1905.

Keim pointed out that Humberto also was the latest name in the alphabet for a first hurricane.
november.gifView full sizeAreas where storms generate in November.National Hurricane Center

Keim said two seasons list no hurricanes, 1907 and 1914. But the pre-satellite record may not be accurate, because a hurricane may have formed somewhere in the Atlantic before the recorded storms, but have not been observed and recorded.

But as a reminder of how it may still be too early to call this season a dud, Feltgen points out that the latest a hurricane has formed in modern times was in 2002, when Gustav was declared a hurricane at 7 a.m. Central time on Sept. 11. (That Gustav is not to be confused with the 2008 hurricane that hit New Orleans.)

In 2002, Gustav was followed by Hurricane Isidore, which crossed the Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 3 storm, but weakened to a tropical storm and then a depression as it hit Grand Isle on Sept. 26, dropping 15.97 inches of rain in Metairie.
View full size

Following close behind Isidore was Hurricane Lili, which reached Category 4 strength just 12 hours before making landfall near Lake Charles as a Category 1 storm. Wind gusts of 120 mph were measured in Louisiana, however, and the storm caused more than $1 billion in damages in 2013 dollars, and left 237,000 people without power.

So what's blocking the formation of hurricanes this year?

Feltgen said center forecasters blame an unusual weather pattern where dry, stable air, sometimes accompanied by dust from the Sahara region of Africa, has been sinking in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

The thunderstorms that make up a tropical cyclone are formed when moist air is rising, so the sinking air is believed to be suppressing development.

Compounding the suppression factor are strong upper level winds that are shearing off the tops of whatever thunderstorms do form, he said.

"This year's Tropical Storms Chantal, Dorian, Erin and Gabrielle each dissipated when they ran into this environment," Feltgen said. "Several tropical waves coming across the tropical Atlantic in recent weeks (in what's referred to as the Cape Verde season because storms tend to form near the Cape Verde islands off the coast of Africa), ran into these environmental issues and failed to develop any further."

Only the low pressure system and accompanying thunderstorms that became Humberto managed to move through that area to become a hurricane in the eastern Atlantic, he said.

One of the few areas that has seen activity, though, has been the Bay of Campeche and the rest of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, which were the locations of the formation of Tropical Storms Barry and Fernand and Hurricane Ingrid, all of which went inland on the eastern Gulf coast of Mexico.

Only Tropical Storm Andrea made landfall on the U.S. coast, on June 6 near Steinhatchee, Fla.

Feltgen also warned that it only takes one storm hitting a particular area to make it a bad year, even near the end of the season.

"Sandy made a U.S. landfall on Oct. 29 of last year," he said. "Hurricane Wilma, the last major hurricane to strike the U.S., did so on Oct. 24, 2005."

Sandy devastated parts of New Jersey and New York, while Wilma, the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, was a Category 5 hurricane with top winds of 185 mph for a brief time before dropping to 150 mph as it hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Oct. 20. By the time it hit the southwest coast of Florida at Cape Romano, its winds were 120 mph, Category 3 strength.

The storm caused an estimated $20 billion in damage in the U.S., in 2013 dollars.
Quoting 562. washingtonian115:
LOL.No one is whinning.It's a fact that the Atlantic has been producing pathetic storms and that a typhoon over in the west pacific has accumulated more energy than that of the whole Atlantic hurricane season up until this point.


Please you have been whining for a month now about how all the storms haven't been impacting the US
06z gfs




I will be back with 12z gfs as soon as its done
Could be some interesting weather for Florida this week
Quoting 562. washingtonian115:
LOL.No one is whinning.It's a fact that the Atlantic has been producing pathetic storms and that a typhoon over in the west pacific has accumulated more energy than that of the whole Atlantic hurricane season up until this point.



so ture
Quoting 565. Hurricanes101:


Please you have been whining for a month now about how all the storms haven't been impacting the US
Lol.can you point that out?.And I've barely been blogging.When did I say I wanted a storm to impact the U.S?.I said I wouldn't mind a 2010 season where all the majors stayed out to sea.There you go putting words into peoples mouth.
Quoting 568. Tazmanian:



reported


if i cant ues the word pest and not get a way of geting bannd for it then you can ues you word shut up

rule 6 Foul or obscene language or content of any kind is not allowed


i was hoping that uesing the word pest will help me stay way from uesing foul languages but i guss too the mods the word pest is a bad word too ues


you are not a mod Taz, quit acting like one
Quoting 540. Tazmanian:






some of you guys dont get it seems this year is not a norml year i dont care if it runs in tell nov 30th some years it shuts down early like in 2006 the season ended in OCT 2nd and 2009 season ended on nov 10th i think this year the season could end early now we could get one more storm in oct or nove like in 2006 and 2009 season but this season has been like the the 2006 and 2009

It may end early, it may not. We have no way of knowing for sure. Declaring it completely over on September 22 is completely foolish.
Quoting 571. washingtonian115:
Lol.can you point that out?.And I've barely been blogging.When did I say I wanted a storm to impact the U.S?.I said I wouldn't mind a 2010 season where all the majors stayed out to sea.There you go putting words into peoples mouth.


well its implied when we have a strengthening hurricane in the BOC with the potential to cause massive flooding in Mexico and you come on complaining about the storm because it developed in the BOC

You hate that all the storms developed on there and you would come on here and make your frustrations known, while some of us were looking at the storm.

Sorry just my opinion. I will leave it alone now
Quoting 563. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there is another strong front for next weekend as well early week


06z gfs

12z is currently running awaiting results

I'm not complaining.We need the rain.We've been running a 3 inch deficit.
Quoting 561. FunnelVortex:


There we see our nor'easter developing from former 95L
yes something to watch next week.
Quoting 572. Hurricanes101:


you are not a mod Taz, quit acting like one
true taz is not a mod but your use of shutup was just as uncalled for but I understand and say that's once
Quoting 573. TropicalAnalystwx13:

It may end early, it may not. We have no way of knowing for sure. Declaring it completely over on September 22 is completely foolish.





ok then if we can get from now tell NOV 30th with out a name storm then i come back on NOV 30th and say i was right the hole time

oh dont worry i still be here posting two lol
Quoting 574. Hurricanes101:


well its implied when we have a strengthening hurricane in the BOC with the potential to cause massive flooding in Mexico and you come on complaining about the storm because it developed in the BOC

You hate that all the storms developed on there and you would come on here and make your frustrations known, while some of us were looking at the storm.

Sorry just my opinion. I will leave it alone now
Maybe if it was two storms that developed in the BOC there wouldn't be a problem.But more than half of the storms formed there this season.Making it very predictable.I want a long track beautiful hurricane like Danielle in 2010 and 2004.
Quoting 552. Hurricanes101:
wow seems the whiners are on here in full force today

Oh no, the season is not what we thought, big deal. There are other things more important. Also the activity so far this year has no bearing on what will happen for the rest of it. We very easily could end up with a high impact system next month as the main development areas in October have been largely untouched and those waters are still very warm

If we get a late season storm with high impact, that should shut some people up
My goodness 101... You seem to have gotten up on the wrong side of the bed.... Speaking of whining,you seem to be in the lead. You can only whine for so long, then you need to get your life back 101
Quoting 577. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
true taz is not a mod but your use of shutup was just as uncalled for but I understand and say that's once


Thank you, I did not use the word to directly tell someone to do that. It was more of a general comment
Quoting 581. PalmBeachWeather:



stop it now yous


lol
584. flsky
Quoting 564. ncstorm:


Posting a link takes up less blog space than loooooong articles.
In the world of sports it is the 2nd half of where games are won. If you want to tie that in to the hurricane season think of it as getting off to a bad start and coming from behind to win the game. October is just around the corner and will see more activity than September.
Quoting 583. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



stop it now yous


lol


mod = Duty Babysitter :)
Quoting 587. Orcasystems:


:)
hello big fish good sunday too ya
good news here
Quoting 588. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hello big fish good sunday too ya


That it is.. but I do miss the sunny weather... its been gone for a few days now :(
9/2/0 to this point. We still have October and November to fill in. My prediction of 15/8/5 still stands, but I am least confident that all of my numbers will verify. I'll go with the named storms verifying.

Quoting 578. Tazmanian:





ok then if we can get from now tell NOV 30th with out a name storm then i come back on NOV 30th and say i was right the hole time

oh dont worry i still be here posting two lol

Okay.
I have to admit this has been a slow and almost uneventful season. I like to track these storms just like everyone else but am thankful we haven't had any large damaging storms this year. I know I am really tiring of all the rain we keep getting in Florida as there really isn't anywhere else for it to go.
Quoting 584. flsky:


Posting a link takes up less blog space than loooooong articles.


and your comment is blog worthy?..LOL..

You guys have fun bickering and complaining..I'm off to watch some sunday football..
By the way where are my manners...Good Sunday morning everyone.
Quoting 583. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



stop it now yous


lol
Ok... Sorry.
Quoting 595. GTstormChaserCaleb:
By the way where are my manners...Good Sunday morning everyone.
Good afternoon GT
598. MahFL
I my opinion a low is definitely forming in the NW Gulf, you can see the banding curving.
Quoting 451. mikatnight:
Good Morning!
6:58 am (10:58 GMT)

7:14

7:25

Sunrise in Lantana Florida overlooking the Intracoastal Waterway.

I hope everyone has been doing well in my absence. I must confess I haven't even had a chance to check in at all aside from reading Jeff's posts - I've been busier than a one-legged dude in a butt-kicking contest...

Dexter is doing just fine (in case you were wondering), however his best friend Marley got attacked by a much larger dog last week and had to be rushed to the hospital. We are very relieved and pleased to report that Marley is doing much, much better now, and even got to pal around with Dex for a bit yesterday. Meanwhile, this morning, I asked Dex what he thought of this year's hurricane season...

Oh well, everybody has an opinion.


I am way too fast for you! Hahahahahahaha

On the way home we stopped by the tennis courts to play a little ball. I couldn't get a decent picture, but here's one from last year, playing tug-of-war with Mom...
6:33 pm (sunset), October 15, 2012


So Dex, is this the end of hurricane season?

Hmmmmm. Still a long way to the end of November. Wishful thinking, or perhaps...prescient?

We got a couple of good rain days last week. If this next forecasted batch dumps on us, September might end up being the wettest of the year. It's gonna take over 4" to beat May's 14" though.

Have a great Sunday everyone! Go Fish!
Great series, Mik! I'm glad to here my fave canine pal is doing well and as opinionated as ever... lol
Quoting 533. congaline:
I always ck out NHC before coming here to see Sat images and get a feel for what's moving out there. Surprised to see the low in the gulf blowing up again at tail of cold front. Showing improvement in circ and convection firing, I think they need to put a circle around it again. Might even be a TS before it reaches Eastern gulf. At least some fun inclement weather headed this way. Usagi sure is pretty to look at.

It is strictly extra tropical. Beautiful day in Houston. Low was in the mid-60's last night. Dry air. Beautiful blue skies. Dew points running a little high because of all the rain we had. Woot!
Quoting 583. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



stop it now yous


lol




Lookit these twins in the monsoon trof.
Quoting 598. MahFL:
I my opinion a low is definitely forming in the NW Gulf, you can see the banding curving.

Definitely some rotation.



Some wind too.
Like I said, people will not give up on this season until Christmas music starts playing on the radio.
Quoting 603. wxgeek723:
Like I said, people will not give up on this season until Christmas music starts playing on the radio.
Heck.... They had Halloween costumes for sale at Walmart a month ago
Quoting 603. wxgeek723:
Like I said, people will not give up on this season until Christmas music starts playing on the radio.
"Chestnuts roasting on an open fire"
Has nobody ever seen a frontal low before? Everybody is going crazy on Facebook and Twitter about the NHC completely ignoring a tropical cyclone in the northwestern Gulf. The low does not meet the qualifications to be considered a subtropical or tropical cyclone because it's connected to a cold front.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Interesting I saw this on this mornings GFS run.

609. MahFL
Quoting 606. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Has nobody ever seen a frontal low before? Everybody is going crazy on Facebook and Twitter about the NHC completely ignoring a tropical cyclone in the northwestern Gulf. The low does not meet the qualifications to be considered a subtropical or tropical cyclone because it's connected to a cold front.


You can see the feeder bands coming in from the south.
Quoting 606. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Has nobody ever seen a frontal low before? Everybody is going crazy on Facebook and Twitter about the NHC completely ignoring a tropical cyclone in the northwestern Gulf. The low does not meet the qualifications to be considered a subtropical or tropical cyclone because it's connected to a cold front.
Now that we name all storms all year people think everything needs a designation or people will not know what to do. It's called dumbing down.
611. 7544
Quoting 602. Abacosurf:

Definitely some rotation.



Some wind too.


agree looks like a little se drift there too if it could get further south today and avoid all that dry air to the north it could pop keeeps one eye on it .
Quoting 603. wxgeek723:
Like I said, people will not give up on this season until Christmas music starts playing on the radio.

Lol, it starts in just over a month for me.
Good grief. There's NOTHING to talk about in the Atlantic. A few people may need to seriously reconsider their fiber intake. Lighten up!

Quoting 603. wxgeek723:
Like I said, people will not give up on this season until Christmas music starts playing on the radio.
I don't care who you are.Now that's funny.It'll be January and people will be saying don't give up.Meanwhile we're tracking winter storms.
615. beell
The Cyclone Model-Part 1

The temperature gradients are not as extreme as in the examples. Consequently, neither is the strength of the system.
Quoting 603. wxgeek723:
Like I said, people will not give up on this season until Christmas music starts playing on the radio.


Is it OK to wait til Dec 1 (end of season) before we give up on it? We're supposed to just walk out at half-time?
Quoting 499. LAbonbon:


Mmmm, Mmmm! The apple slice pancakes were really really good. Thanks for the idea.

Maybe next weekend it'll be the banana fritters :)

Plaintain is better... don't even need the batter... lol

Quoting 501. SLU:


A drought advisory may need to issued for the islands soon because we're looking at the prospect of about 8 - 9 months of bone dry weather on the heals of this bust season with well below normal rainfall.
The way things have been going, u guys could end up with an excessively wet "dry" season. Not saying it will happen, but things have been so contrary to expectation this season that just about anything seems possible.....

Quoting 526. Tazmanian:
i really think hurricane season is done for this year has we are starting too get more and more fall like winter storms in fac Montana could be looking at the 1st winter storm watch of the season

They had frost warnings up that way much of last week. And not just in the mountains.

Quoting 557. FunnelVortex:


What part of "upper Midwest" don't you understand?
Obviously, the MID part. You didn't even need to ask...

Quoting 584. flsky:


Posting a link takes up less blog space than loooooong articles.
Wonder which is easier for pple on phones and tablets? the article in the blog or the link, necessitating a new window?
Quoting 591. GTstormChaserCaleb:
9/2/0 to this point. We still have October and November to fill in. My prediction of 15/8/5 still stands, but I am least confident that all of my numbers will verify. I'll go with the named storms verifying.

I agree. I think the NS will verify. The 8 hurricanes? hmmm... we have had only 2 so far, so that means we'd have to get 6 more in the CAR and NW ATL for that to verify. I had 4 majors, and I doubt that we'll see that verify.

There's got to be something we can use to predict this sinking air in order to improve seasonal forecasts... what are we missing?
Quoting 602. Abacosurf:

Definitely some rotation.



Some wind too.

You could see it spinning just off-shore on the Brownsville radar yesterday. No doubt the rotation is intact.
619. vis0
Quoting 451. mikatnight:
Good Morning!
6:58 am (10:58 GMT)

........
I hope everyone has been doing well in my absence. I must confess I haven't even had a chance to check in at all aside from reading Jeff's posts ...

Dexter is doing just fine (in case you were wondering), however his best friend Marley got attacked ... Marley is doing much, much better now, and even got to pal around with Dex for a bit yesterday. Meanwhile, this morning, I asked Dex what he thought of this year's hurricane season......

We got a couple of good rain days last week. If this next forecasted batch dumps on us, September might end up being the wettest of the year. It's gonna take over 4" to beat May's 14" though.

Have a great Sunday everyone! Go Fish!








1) Relieved to read Marley is better.
2) If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around we still don't know if it makes a noise but darn sure Dexter will be in the picture before the tree hits the ground.
3) And why is Dexter looking Northward? for hurricanes...just kidding i can't tell in which direction Dexter's looking.
Who said sea serpents are myth? This is probably what ancient people have seen when describing a sea serpent :)


Uh... New blog?
~
new blog up Skye !!
Quoting 516. PalmBeachWeather:
I heard that IRG... Is this a catch-22 IRG?


well, the futility is nearly the same...