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Historic Snowstorm Takes Aim on Mid-Atlantic

By: Bob Henson 10:40 PM GMT on January 22, 2016

It’s already been dubbed Jonas, Snowzilla, Make Winter Great Again, and no doubt some unprintable names, but the winter storm now spreading into the central U.S. East Coast is a formidable entity no matter what you call it. Our most reliable long-range computer models, the GFS and European (ECMWF), have been remarkably consistent all week in targeting the mid-Atlantic for the heaviest amounts. This storm will certainly rival some of the biggest mid-Atlantic storms in recent decades, and some model runs have cranked out snow totals beyond historical precedent. There is every indication that the GFS/ECMWF consensus is on the right track as this sprawling, dynamic system continues to take shape. Blizzard warnings are in effect for the heavily populated urban corridor from Washington, D.C., to New York, as well as from Long Island to Block Island, RI, and Martha’s Vineyard, MA.


Figure 1. Infrared image of Winter Storm Jonas as of 2015Z (3:15 pm EST) Friday, Jan. 22, 2016. Jonas is gradually taking on the comma-shaped configuration of classic East Coast winter storms. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Washington/Baltimore in the crosshairs
Snow began in the Washington area early Friday afternoon, just a bit sooner than expected, and was intensifying rapidly as rush hour set in. The snow will intensify tonight into Saturday and may continue into early Sunday, leading to some truly phenomenal totals throughout the D.C./Baltimore area. In its experimental probabilistic guidance, the local National Weather Service office lays the best odds on snow amounts in the immediate D.C. area in the vicinity of 24-30”, with the low- and high-end projections published earlier today ranging from 12” to 32”. If this storm produces as expected, it will rank as the city’s heaviest snow since the record 28.0” on Jan. 27-29, 1922 (see Figure 2 below), perhaps even topping that storm. Baltimore could top its all-time record of 26.8” set in the President’s Day 2003 storm (Feb. 16-18), and Dulles has a good shot at #2 behind the 32.4” observed during the Snowmageddon storm of February 5-6, 2010.

If this storm ends up toward the highest-end projections, we may have to go back to colonial days for a historical precedent. In his book “Early American Winters,” eminent weather historian David Ludlum chronicled the Washington-Jefferson Snowstorm of Jan. 27-29, 1772. The District of Columbia hadn’t yet been created, but future president George Washington measured snow at Mt. Vernon, VA, that was “full three feet deep everywhere.” About 100 miles to the southwest, another future president, Thomas Jefferson, called the accumulation “the deepest snow we have ever seen. in Albemarle it was about 3 [feet] deep.” Ludlum also cites the Maryland Gazette (Annapolis): “tis’ supposed the depth where not drifted is upwards of three feet, and it is with utmost difficulty people pass from one house to another.”

It’s worth keeping in mind that official snow measurements are carried out at regular intervals throughout a storm (as often as once each hour), with the snow measuring board cleared off every six hours. This means that at some locations, the total snowfall recorded during a storm will be more than the accumulation on the ground at any one time. Moreover, those snow-board clearings used to occur less frequently during a storm, which means that the total snowfall from some past storms may have been underestimated.


Figure 2. Top-ten snowfalls within a 72-hour period for Washington, DC; Baltimore, MD; and Dulles, VA. Image credit: NWS/Baltimore-Washington.

Further north, nagging uncertainty remains
Friday morning’s computer model guidance offered little help to forecasters in the New York area. Although the NAM model insists that accumulations well over a foot are possible from New York across southern New England, most models are calling for the storm’s heavy snow to have an extraordinarily sharp northern edge located across or very close to New York City. The experimental probabilistic guidance for NYC shows a range of possibilities from less than 1” to around 24”. This range actually isn’t much different from that in D.C., but because it starts at a much lower amount, the range of potential resulting impacts is far greater. Given that strong winds and at least some periods of heavy snow are a good bet, the New York City office opted to go with a blizzard warning. Note that a blizzard is defined not by snow amounts but by at least three hours of high wind (frequent gusts or sustained winds of at least 35 mph) and poor visibility (no more than 1/4 mile). These conditions could be met in or near New York City even if snowfall amounts are relatively low. Southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia, are more likely to wind up on the south side of the sharp heavy-snow cutoff, putting them at risk for well more than a foot of snow. Update (5:59 pm EST]: NWS/New York City has raised its expected storm totals to 12-18" and sped up the storm's arrival.

Many other locations in the eastern U.S. are feeling the effects of Winter Storm Jonas, including:

Center, KY: 15” already on the ground late Friday
Nashville, TN: 5” already on the ground late Friday
Asheville, NC: 7-12” possible by late Saturday
Charlotte, NC: 0.1-0.2” of ice, topped on Saturday by 2-4” of snow and sleet (the storm is expected to clear in time for Sunday’s NFC playoff game)
Roanoke, VA: 11-21” possible by Saturday night

Top amounts recorded by late Friday afternoon included 15” at Center, KY, and 18” near the appropriately named Jonas Ridge, NC. Thanks to Nick Wiltgen and Dr. Greg Forbes (The Weather Channel) for these statistics.

What’s making this storm so powerful?
At Capital Weather Gang, Jeff Halverson has an excellent analysis of the factors leading into this remarkable storm, with the main player being a pronounced upper-level low over the Southeast that will trigger a surface low developing off the East Coast. The upper- and lower-level centers will align just east of the Delmarva in an occlusion, allowing the entire “stacked” system to slow down and prolonging the heavy snow. Also in the mix is a rich feed of moisture streaming up from the northern Caribbean, with pockets of as much as two inches of precipitable water (the amount that could be squeezed out above a given point). Temperatures are considerably warmer than average over the Northwest Atlantic, ranging from about 1°C above average near the Bahamas and northern Caribbean to 2-3°C above average off the Virginia coast northeast to the Canadian Maritimes. (Warmer-than-usual oceans are commonplace across the globe right now, as December was the warmest month in more than a century of global recordkeeping.)


Figure 3. Departures from average sea-surface temperature for this time of year, calculated for the week ending on Jan. 16, 2016. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

Which of the factors driving Jonas is most unusual? Joe Romm (Climate Progress) and Andrew Freedman (Mashable) point out the strong, important links between rising global temperatures associated with human-produced climate change and the observed tendency for high-end precipitation events to become even heavier. Many of the record U.S. rainfall events over the past year have benefited from vast amounts of precipitable water, often at record amounts for the time of year. Winter storms rely on ample moisture as well as strong temperature contrasts and large-scale dynamics. In the case of Jonas, a crucial factor is the extreme intensity of the low-level jet stream pulling moisture from the Caribbean and slamming it around the north side of the surface low into the snow-generating machine over the mid-Atlantic. These powerful winds will replenish the atmospheric moisture being used up rapidly in the snow-making process.

I asked Richard Grumm, science and operations officer at the National Weather Service office in State College, PA, what he saw as the most noteworthy aspects of Winter Storm Jonas. He replied in terms of sigma levels, which express how often you’d expect a particular situation to recur based on previous weather patterns. A 2-sigma event (two standard deviations) occurs about 5% of the time at any given point, while a 6-sigma event is far more rare--in theory, a one-in-500-million likelihood, although the exact recurrence period for such extreme events is impossible to nail down. Grumm calculated sigma levels for the imminent storm using output from the GFS ensemble system (GEFS). Grumm noted that the precipitable water flowing into the storm is in the 1- to 2-sigma range: high but not extraordinary. However, the winds flowing from the Atlantic into the Delmarva peninsula about a mile above the surface could exceed 80 mph (see Figure 4). The east-to-west component of this wind qualifies as a 6-sigma event. Such anomalously strong winds, said Grumm, are “about as good as they get.” He added that 2012’s Hurricane Sandy was the last East Coast event to produce such a high-sigma east-to-west wind anomaly. The intensity of the upper-level front is also apparent in the very sharp south-to-north drop-off in heavy snow depicted by most models. The contrast between cold air over the Northeast and the unseasonably warm waters just offshore may help to enhance the front even further.


Figure 4. Winds at the 850-mb level (about a mile above sea level) projected by the 12Z Friday run of the GFS ensemble system (GEFS) for 7:00 am EST Saturday, Jan. 23, 2016. The lines at each point are directed into the wind; barbs along each line show the wind speed in knots (see this NWS guide). The colored areas denote estimated sigma levels (see legend at left) corresponding to the rarity of the east-west wind component. Higher sigma levels correspond to especially strong easterly or westerly wind components. Image credit: Richard Grumm, NWS.

Live-blogging the storm
As we move into the active phase of this blockbuster storm, it’ll be time to watch short-term mesoscale models more closely. These will help tell us where the most intense bands of snowfall will set up and how far that all-important northern edge of the storm will extend. Mesoscale snow bands can goose totals across southwest-to-northeast strips that may only be a few tens of miles across.

We’ll be documenting the progress of the storm through this weekend at our WU live blog. I’ll have another post by Saturday evening at the latest.

Bob Henson

Winter Weather Blizzard

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. MahFL
Quoting 990. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I think he is just playing around maybe
maybe not


I thought she was a teenaged male teen, like someone else posted. A fairly mature one I may add.
1002. sar2401
Quoting 998. Dakster:



I have wonderful, but bannable comment to that.

Where are all the pictures in the blog of our bloggers slogging through the snow?
Are you crazy? Who wants to go out on a night like this? Maybe tomorrow, when they all have to start shoveling. :-)
Quoting 1001. MahFL:



I thought she was a teenaged male teen, like someone else posted. A fairly mature one I may add.
Yes young in spirit but my teenage days are long gone! lol.
1004. Drakoen
Quoting 1000. sar2401:

Still, the models did a good job putting a bullseye over you. Major fail for New York and environs thouogh. Whoops. :-)


Predicting the future is hard apparently.
1005. MahFL
Quoting 1003. washingtonian115:

Yes young in spirit but my teenage days are long gone! lol.


Well that is all that matters :).
1006. Grothar


1007. Dakster
Quoting 1002. sar2401:

Are you crazy? Who wants to go out on a night like this? Maybe tomorrow, when they all have to start shoveling. :-)


Funny how the guy the media stopped to talk to who was running/jogging in DC was a former Alaskan...
1008. tc1120
Quoting 923. sar2401:

First, the NAM happens to be getting a lot of social media attention because it did a good job on this storm. It didn't get the same attention when it didn't do well. The NAM, or North American Model, is a small scale model that's better at handling things like local convection. It's not a global model like the GFS or Euro (ECMWF). Generally, the NAM doesn't get a lot of attention for large scale systems like this because it doesn't generally do a very good job with them. This time it did, but that doesn't change the overall way the NAM models storms or make it more likely it will be good on the next one. The Euro goes through 51 possible solutions to get to the ensemble while the GFS uses 21. The NAM uses 4. Forecasters look at all the models side by side and then have to judge which combination of models is likely to be right. The NAM wasn't ignored, and and a lot of the high resolution solutions for the HRRR come directly from the NAM. It's a pretty good model for the short term for continental North America. It gets used for what it's good at, but forecasters never know which model is "right" until the event is happening.


Now that is a perfect explanation. Thanks Sar!
1009. barbamz
Sideglance to world's weather with the loop of stations near or surpassing their daily records. Western Europe is once again on the warm side, while the far east is suffering from cold temperatures:



Orange alert as worst cold front in decades hits China
The Hindu, Updated: January 23, 2016 18:46 IST
1010. sar2401
Quoting 1007. Dakster:



Funny how the guy the media stopped to talk to who was running/jogging in DC was a former Alaskan...
It's been funny all day watching TWC babes trying to find the right drifts to stand in to make it look they are out there taking the storm head on while everyone behind them is out strolling and jogging.
Quoting 954. Tazmanian:



weather CH this reported 25.1 for central park the 27.1 reading was at one of the airports
Hey buddy what's up. How's things going for you.
1012. sar2401
Quoting 1008. tc1120:



Now that is a perfect explanation. Thanks Sar!
I don't know about perfect, but thanks. The NAM forecasting a storm far out is just generally not very good. When it gets to 24 hours out, and it looks like the global models have the storm generally right, that's when I start paying attention to the NAM.
1013. sar2401
Quoting 1004. Drakoen:



Predicting the future is hard apparently.
Probably why you don't hear of meteorologists winning the lottery.
Quoting 998. Dakster:



I have wonderful, but bannable comment to that.

Where are all the pictures in the blog of our bloggers slogging through the snow?


I tried but it was too deep to walk thru this was all I got. When I tried it was deeper then my legs and my feet kept getting stuck. Some of the drifts around here are taller than I am
Britain braces itself for more floods as Storm Jonas heads towards shores

A Met spokesman said: "An active cold front is expected to become slow-moving across Wales, north-west England and south and west Scotland through Tuesday, and into Wednesday, before clearing to the south on Wednesday afternoon.

"Warm air of tropical origins is expected to be entrained into the system, leading to abundant moisture and heavy rain.

"Many parts of the warning area could see 50-100 mm of rain, whilst the most exposed upland parts of north Wales, north-west England and south-west Scotland could see 150-200 mm.


Link
starting to break up and end last of it now for the Washington region

Just keeps on coming to the boroughs

nyc will end at mark 3 feet 1 inch
Quoting 959. HurricaneHunterJoe:

All you nice folks get 2-3 feet of snow, or rain or high winds or some such combination.

Out here in Soo Cal, what I get is "the weather could get interesting"

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
124 PM PST SAT JAN 23 2016

THE WEATHER COULD GET INTERESTING AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEEPENING A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST
NEXT SUNDAY. THIS ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER PRECIP...STRONG
WINDS...AND LARGE SURF IF IT STAYS ON A GFS TRACK. THE GFS RUNS ARE
STRONGER...WHILE THE GEM AND ECMWF DIG THE TROUGH FARTHER INLAND
AND GENERATE LESS PRECIP OVER SOCAL. AT 240 HOURS...ALL THE GUIDANCE
HAVE A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REESTABLISHED OVER THE ROCKIES. SO...THE
HEMISPHERIC LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO AN ADJUSTMENT AS WE EXIT
JANUARY. IT WILL BE THE TRANSITION THAT GOVERNS HOW MUCH WEATHER WE
SEE HERE.

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz


We had some clouds here today, that's something. High surf warnings come up on the site for Palmdale, but I doubt that will materialize.
Evening all from Sunny Nassau .... the wx today was wonderful compared to the dreary overcast conditions of the last 2 or so weeks .... Finally something like "real" winter wx, with temps in the low 70s for much of the day. The wind was brisk as well, at times around 20mph sustained. Now that the sun is down temps have dropped, as is to be expected with the clear skies and cooler air mass. Currently winds are from the west at 16, with gusts to 29, at Nassau Airport.

The severe wx warning was a bit of an anticlimax here in Nassau, but as I suspected, parts of Grand Bahama were flooded by up to 3 feet of water yesterday. So far I haven't found any pictures on the internet, but I've seen some on whatsapp, so I guess we'll get a few in the papers on Monday.
Quoting 1002. sar2401:

Are you crazy? Who wants to go out on a night like this? Maybe tomorrow, when they all have to start shoveling. :-)


Out tonight. Walked the dogs. Still snowing light to moderate. Pix in my cellphone. Can't upload to WU.

Snow 15-16" deep on the level in my College Park MD backyard. This likely corresponds to 18-20" swept off a snow board.
1022. weesej
Quoting 966. MontanaZephyr:



Um, it's a he.

I mean, I think. He sounds like a teen aged kid anyways.


Whoops!
Avg snow measurement here is between 2" and 8" with drifts to 18-20"

Assuming maybe about 5-6" totals in Boston. Windy and frigid.
Quoting 1010. sar2401:

It's been funny all day watching TWC babes trying to find the right drifts to stand in to make it look they are out there taking the storm head on while everyone behind them is out strolling and jogging.

Haha, yeah, I remember some reporter for KCRA in Sac scrambling up onto a big pile of snow to illustrate how much motorists might encounter on their way up to Tahoe for a day on the slopes. If one looked closely, one could see the edge of an A-frame roof right beside the snow pile! Great entertainment!
Mixed signals next week but it'll only rub salt in the wound for a lot of people.I'm more concerned about flooding at this point.1996 springs into my mind when we had a huge snowfall and temperatures along with rain melted everything in one day.
hylan at new dorp ln
statenisland
Quoting 1025. washingtonian115:

Mixed signals next week but it'll only rub salt in the wound for a lot of people.I'm more concerned about flooding at this point.1996 springs into my mind when we had a huge snowfall and temperatures along with rain melted everything in one day.
temps soar into low 40's here on tuseday with rain or showers


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED...GENERALLY WEAK...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS...AND WESTERN GULF COAST REGION.

AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM A MODIFYING
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS POSSIBLE
INLAND OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST. WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO
STILL RECOVERING FROM A PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BE WEAK. HOWEVER...COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 70-80+ KT
MID-LEVEL JET /ACCOMPANYING THE IMPULSE ACCELERATING NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/...DESTABILIZATION MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

...WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS UPPER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA GULF COASTAL AREAS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MAINLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL PLUME. THIS MAY BE AIDED BY
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW...AND
SEEMS LIKELY TO BE ROOTED ABOVE A RESIDUAL STABLE SURFACE-BASED
LAYER...WITH LITTLE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EVIDENT AT THIS TIME.


I disagree with the SPC. With the way Houston's lucky, I wouldn't be surprised if we're under at least a MARGINAL risk for severe weather by Monday.
I'm trying to read back, but I haven't seen any snowfall totals on the last page ....
Insane amount of snow here on Western Long Island near JFK Airport. Haven't seen anything like this since 2006 and 1996. This somehow seems worse than those storms were. It's still coming down and blowing hard.
Quoting 905. Gearsts:

The story the last couple of years always the same. ;)


Maybe the story will change in a few months. But before that.... it's a long wait. Some islands will likely get enough time to dry out significantly again. St Barts first, lol.
1032. Xulonn
.
BWI with a record 29.2 inches of snow from this storm. #1 in terms of snowfall of all time [for the area]. ** (via Anne Arundel County Breaking News and Events FB Page) **
Quoting 1030. SyriboTigereyes:

Insane amount of snow here on Western Long Island near JFK Airport. Haven't seen anything like this since 2006 and 1996. This somehow seems worse than those storms were. It's still coming down and blowing hard.

Keep your cellphone charged :)
Truly a historic storm.
Washington, D.C., snowfall total called into question after improper measurement


"It has become apparent this afternoon and evening, through multiple conversations with the weather observers at Reagan National Airport, that the snowfall totals submitted to the National Weather Service for that location have not been measured properly."

The measurements taken at National were not done with a snow board, and so may have been reduced by compaction.

Yay Angela Fritz.... Good job checking on the DC measurements
1037. Drakoen
Difficult to measure going with 25-27 inches which corresponds with a reading in Bethesda and Glenmont.
It's only 54° degrees with winds out of the west at 20mph here in Lake Worth/Palm Springs, Fl. I was the only one outside walking my pup. It is the coldest I felt all season.
1039. Drakoen
Quoting 1025. washingtonian115:

Mixed signals next week but it'll only rub salt in the wound for a lot of people.I'm more concerned about flooding at this point.1996 springs into my mind when we had a huge snowfall and temperatures along with rain melted everything in one day.


Hoping our snow can hold out till the next event.
Recap of the Storm.
Quoting 931. barbamz:

Good evening. Catching up with the incredible news. Below the super sweet panda video which is already all over the world, including German news, so it can't lack in here:


The comments section on that video is especially risable .... :)

Quoting 944. barbamz:

Washi, new avatar for you:


This TODALLY works .... lol ....

Quoting 984. sar2401:

He or she has been a member since 2007, so plenty long enough if you're paying attention.
Depends on which shift you are normally on. Not all of us can keep up with Sar and Gro, and KOTG, who are always on, all the time .... lol ....

I had to laugh, though, since the only avatar that might not have given it away was the dancing bear .... which only now seems to be making his move .... :o)

At any rate, it seems like most of the NE and Central coast has made it through okay. Looks like snow is likely to continue over CN, MA, and maybe even ME? for the rest of the night ....

lol the dancing bear.

01/23/2016 0740 PM

Williamsburg, Kings County.

Heavy snow m27.3 inch, reported by public.
Quoting 1038. GeoffreyWPB:

It's only 54° degrees with winds out of the west at 20mph here in Lake Worth/Palm Springs, Fl. I was the only one outside walking my pup. It is the coldest I felt all season.
Supposed to get to 59 here and 45!!! in Grand Bahama .... Almost 20 degree difference there from yesterday ...
Quoting 1042. washingtonian115:

lol the dancing bear.


This is still my fave of all your avatars, you know. Though I admit "Queen of all the Snow I Survey" works well this weekend ...
Quoting 1011. Andrebrooks:

Hey buddy what's up. How's things going for you.



going well man what a storm this was for the back E a few days a go little too no snow was forecast for new york and not here we are all most the top # 1 storm where this waiting for a new update and see if we did it

oh am going too get me a 4K TV soon
Quoting 1037. Drakoen:

Difficult to measure going with 25-27 inches which corresponds with a reading in Bethesda and Glenmont.


Snow finally almost done here. Final measurement is about 29", which just about matches BWI (which I'm pretty close to).

I was thinking I'd hit 30" by the end of the day, so I wasn't too far off. :)
1048. Patrap
Dedicated to Drakoen and all the Sneaux Lovers under the spell of Winter Storm Jonas tonight in Maryland and locales to and fro'

"and now, the end is near, I feel I face, my final snowflake's....





Quoting 1048. Patrap:

Dedicated to Drakoen and all the Sneaux Lovers under the spell of Winter Storm Jonas tonight in Maryland and locales to and fro'

"and now, the end is near, I feel I face, my final snowflake's....








Still snowing but I can see the moon pretty clearly so the cloud layer is very thin
1050. Patrap
Quoting 1003. washingtonian115:

Yes young in spirit but my teenage days are long gone! lol.


Same here. I remember I went to sleep at college when I was 18. I woke up the next day and I was 40. :D
1053. Patrap
I want to thank the whole crew and crews, lurkers, regla's and esp Drak as its been fun watching the build up to Jonas and then to see it happen here.

Always the best part of wu blogging is the sharing..the best in the weather bizz still.

Its the kinda folk and blogging I want to have behind me in the event a Major rolls close or in, as we all are connected I believe in greater ways than we know.

Night' from Chilly NOLA.

Big chill on the way ... but sorry Hong Kong, it’s too warm to snow The article says the most severe cold snap in recent times was 5.2 C in December 1991. It got down to 3.0 C with rain, and there are now numerous reports of snow in Hong Kong above 1,000 feet (300 meters). Hopefully lots of pictures coming soon as daylight begins.
Quoting 1051. Xyrus2000:



Same here. I remember I went to sleep at college when I was 18. I woke up the next day and I was 40. :D
It feels like the 80's were just 10 years ago and the 90's 5 years ago.Where has the time went!
Quoting 1003. washingtonian115:

Yes young in spirit but my teenage days are long gone! lol.


You can always play "how old would you be if you didn't know how old you were"

Definite parka weather for Coral Gables on a beautiful clear night as the temperatures plummet to an expected low of 44 degrees.
Quoting 1046. Tazmanian:




going well man what a storm this was for the back E a few days a go little too no snow was forecast for new york and not here we are all most the top # 1 storm where this waiting for a new update and see if we did it

oh am going too get me a 4K TV soon
Great. Hey send me a friend request on Facebook ok. :)
well it looks like this storm is a warp up any one no when the new updates come out i would like to no the final snow fall from this event
Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston 4m4 minutes ago
Before this three winter stretch, haven't had three in a row above average snow in DC since 1977-78 through 1979-80
Quoting 1057. Andrebrooks:

Great. Hey send me a friend request on Facebook ok. :)



not accepting new freind request at this time
Quoting 1053. Patrap:

I want to thank the whole crew and crews, lurkers, regla's and esp Drak as its been fun watching the build up to Jonas and then to see it happen here.

Always the best part of wu blogging is the sharing..the best in the weather bizz still.

Its the kinda folk and blogging I want to have behind me in the event a Major rolls close or in, as we all are connected I believe in greater ways than we know.

Night' from Chilly NOLA.




Wonderfully well said, Patrap, and I certainly agree in toto with what you've said. Here in Upstate New York we totally missed this one, but I've read every post for the past two days just to stay connected with my "boots on the ground". That would be all of you guys (and gals) who kept reporting, adding info and maps, and giving all of us out of Snowzilla's loop a real feel for what was happening with this storm.

It still isn't over for some poor unfortunates (the storms themselves always have a certain degree of excitement... even "fun"... but the cleanups and dislocations and power outages are a bear-and-a-half), but Jonas is finally winding down in the U.S.. A truly, truly historic storm.

And one that I felt much more a part of because of all of you. My very big thanks... :-)

Jo
1062. Patrap
One more from the ISS via Astronaut Scott Kelly


80Scott KellyVerified account
@StationCDRKelly
Rare #thundersnow visible from @Space_Station in #blizzard2016! #Snowzilla #snowmaggedon2016 #YearInSpace

Quoting 1051. Xyrus2000:



Same here. I remember I went to sleep at college when I was 18. I woke up the next day and I was 40. :D


I'm already getting to the point where if neighbors are being loud/partying during the week I want to be an old man and put a stop to it, and I'm much closer to 18 than 40...
Well, looks like we're starting to wind down here now... here's storm totals for eastern Nassau County on Long Island:

...NASSAU COUNTY...
HICKSVILLE 27.1 900 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
MASSAPEQUA 23.6 800 PM 1/23 PUBLIC

I'm halfway between these two towns, depending on the exact location of the measurements. As I look outside, I am confident we hit 25". Drifts by my garage are nearly to the roof. I'll put it at 8 feet.

I shoveled about 2.5 times throughout the day. About halfway through my third attempt, I paused and watched the powdery snow blow this way and that way, and I thought to myself, "what the hell am I doing right now?"

So I dropped the shovel, grabbed a Great South Bay Blood Orange Pale Ale, and watched an episode of Mad Men on Netflix.

Good night, all. Hope you enjoyed the action as much as I did.
Official measurement is 26.7" here at Millersville University.

I just got back from a tubing run with three friends, we found a massive hill near campus next to the golf course and we had a lot of fun. Only vehicles were the plows coming from the waste water treatment plant nearby.
Quoting 1055. washingtonian115:

It feels like the 80's were just 10 years ago and the 90's 5 years ago.Where has the time went!
I watched an interesting video that said when you get to your 80s and look back on your life, the part that will feel like the middle of your life would be your early 20s and not your 40s ironically.
Quoting 1055. washingtonian115:

It feels like the 80's were just 10 years ago and the 90's 5 years ago.Where has the time went!


Perception of time. When you're a kid, you haven't been around that long. So relative to how long you lived, a three month long summer felt like forever and day. As you went through school, it seemed like summers just got shorter and shorter. How fast did your graduation summer go by? Working a part time job, hanging out with friends, and saying sad good-byes to as you went separate ways. It almost seemed like as soon as you closed the high school yearbooks on the last day of high school you were opening your college texts on the first day of class.

Then suddenly you graduated from college. Holy crap, four years seemed to pass in a blink of an eye! The summers seemed like they were so short as to be non-existent. Which is a good thing, since you don't get those off when you're in the working world.

The ring on your finger? When the hell did that happen? And who's the little spitting image of you bouncing around like someone combined a superball with red-bull? In school already? You've been around so long that a year just doesn't seem that long anymore. Before you know it your own kids will be taking SATs and lining up for graduation.

Ah, the passing of a major weather event makes me wistful. :)

And on that melancholic/mid-life crisis note, I'm marking the end of the Great Blizzard of 2016 for me. There's just a few remaining snow showers passing over from the "bay effect" which won't add much to the final tally.

Let's see what else weather 2.0 will provide this year!
Quoting 1025. washingtonian115:

Mixed signals next week but it'll only rub salt in the wound for a lot of people.I'm more concerned about flooding at this point.1996 springs into my mind when we had a huge snowfall and temperatures along with rain melted everything in one day.


I wouldn't worry too much of that as when the thaw came in January 1996, Northeast "Surface dew points rose into the 50s and 60s, which rapidly melted the snowpack". Contrast that record warmth to this, on Wednesday, a couple of hours in the low-mid 40's with light rain shouldn't eliminate this massive snowpack.
I would like to call upon the Meteorologist community to announce a moratorium on the a-priori use of the word "historic" as it relates to weather events. It's a tiring cliche, and only history can tell what's historic and what isn't. Consider a variety of descriptors such as, "severe", "heavy", "extreme", "hazardous", etc.

If it's historic, people will talk about it far into the future. Until then, it's just a storm.
How do you like your first really big snow Nathan?
Dulles had 0.12 liquid equivalent in last hour so their total will go up.
Quoting 1064. LongIslandBeaches:

Well, looks like we're starting to wind down here now... here's storm totals for eastern Nassau County on Long Island:

...NASSAU COUNTY...
HICKSVILLE 27.1 900 PM 1/23 PUBLIC
MASSAPEQUA 23.6 800 PM 1/23 PUBLIC

I'm halfway between these two towns, depending on the exact location of the measurements. As I look outside, I am confident we hit 25". Drifts by my garage are nearly to the roof. I'll put it at 8 feet.

I shoveled about 2.5 times throughout the day. About halfway through my third attempt, I paused and watched the powdery snow blow this way and that way, and I thought to myself, "what the hell am I doing right now?"

So I dropped the shovel, grabbed a Great South Bay Blood Orange Pale Ale, and watched an episode of Mad Men on Netflix.

Good night, all. Hope you enjoyed the action as much as I did.


I'll find out what some of my family in Brooklyn ended up with tomorrow. And I'm still waiting for netflix to put the last half of the final season up...it's been almost a year since it ended...
Quoting 1069. RandomString:

I would like to call upon the Meteorologist community to announce a moratorium on the a-priori use of the word "historic" as it relates to weather events. It's a tiring cliche, and only history can tell what's historic and what isn't. Consider a variety of descriptors such as, "severe", "heavy", "extreme", "hazardous", etc.

If it's historic, people will talk about it far into the future. Until then, it's just a storm.

Please... don't dump your snow drift on everyone's parade, RandomString. Something can be historic if it's never happened before (at least in "recorded" history)... it doesn't have to be something that relates to the future.

Ask the people in Harrisburg, Baltimore, Washington, and New York, among other areas, if this is an historic event, as at least three of them set all-time (time=history, in either direction) records for one-day snowfalls... plus all the wind and drifts.

Meaning, I definitely do not think it's in any way a misuse of the word "historic", or "historical".

Of course, your mileage may vary. And remember... no wagering. :-)

Jo
Quoting 1066. Climate175:

I watched an interesting video that said when you get to your 80s and look back on your life, the part that will feel like the middle of your life would be your early 20s and not your 40s ironically.


I had it explained to me this way: recalling your life pre middle-age is like putting up a ladder against a house or tree slow and carefully, recalling your life after middle-age is like pushing it over.
nw wash

Quoting 1070. BaltimoreBrian:

How do you like your first really big snow Nathan?


It's great! I'm kinda bummed it had to occur on a weekend though... :(

Also, they closed the food places early on campus. Guess I'm not eating. There's not a single food place open. Only people on the roads are folks with 4WD and plows.
Baltimore

1079. Grothar
'night everyone, stay warm!
philly
1082. Grothar
Staten island

Also, it seems like a so many people up here hate the snow. Comments I've seen today on the social media feed for campus:

"Ugh, snowed in and nothing to do"

"Why is the wifi stinking? I can't do anything outside."

Me: "How about go play in the snow?"

Most of campus: "Ew! I hate snow!"

If you hate it that much, go to a college that doesn't have any. I don't get YOUNG people that hate their own weather. I can understand older adults, what with worries about jobs, bosses, food, school for kids, etc. etc. But these are young kids who should be out playing in the snow, instead they're complaining there's nothing to do.

There's something wrong with the world.

P.S. Despite being the southern kid, turns out I'm the best at navigating deep snow and keeping my balance. :)
Quoting 1060. Tazmanian:




not accepting new freind request at this time
But we're still friends huh.
Quoting 1077. Astrometeor:

It's great! I'm kinda bummed it had to occur on a weekend though... :(

Also, they closed the food places early on campus. Guess I'm not eating. There's not a single food place open. Only people on the roads are folks with 4WD and plows.
That's ridiculous. What are students supposed to do?
1088. Grothar
SST anomaly might have given Jonas a little kick.


Quoting 1087. BaltimoreBrian:

That's ridiculous. What are students supposed to do?


I don't know. They didn't get the university plows for some of the sidewalks out until 2, which is weird, we had to carve our way to find food. At least the plowed snow is compacted, so you don't sink to your head in that.
this most recent

the witching hour approaches the storm be done all goes quiet till the morning sun

During my freshman year at Old Dominion in February 1989 we had two heavy snowstorms a week apart--15.4" on February 17-19 and 9.0" on February 23-24. We had several snow days but they never stopped serving food!
Quoting 1086. Andrebrooks:

But we're still friends huh.


yes
well time too look west now check out the line up

seems tonight is the first of many

Blizzard Warning drop for new york but i think they sould have re place it with a Winter Weather Advisory has new york still has some light snow and wind going
1097. hydrus
Quoting 1088. Grothar:

SST anomaly might have given Jonas a little kick.



Good evening Gro..Not dissimilar to flicking the turbo switch on a superblown engine.
1098. Dakster
Are you snowed in BB?
Good night. I leave you with this relaxing picture...

Quoting 1093. BaltimoreBrian:

During my freshman year at Old Dominion in February 1989 we had two heavy snowstorms a week apart--15.4" on February 17-19 and 9.0" on February 23-24. We had several snow days but they never stopped serving food!


How late did your food service go? I feel like we have one of the earliest closing food services in the country. Tonight, there were only two dinner locations. One closed at 7, the other at 9. Normally the latter goes to 11...which is early compared to a large number of institutions.
1101. Dakster
When I went to the University of Miami it closed at 7... and on the weekend even earlier....
Quoting 1101. Dakster:

When I went to the University of Miami it closed at 7... and on the weekend even earlier....


That's messed up...I don't usually get dinner until after 7...and then I have to get food later around 10 and sometimes around 2 AM, depends on how long I have to study.

In weather related news, apparently the snow damaged the doors over at the Honors College Dorm...the electrical sensors are no longer working and they had to turn off the alarms by hand and then manually lock the doors.
1103. Dakster
The 24 hour restaurants near campus loved it though. But yes, it does suck when things close early.

And of course, being a college student you are typically awake until the wee hours of the morning. Of course processed barely, oats, wheat, and whey were available at the on campus bar.
Quoting 992. sar2401:

I'm telling ya, Joe, just wait for Valentine's Day or President's Day. I spent more time floating around in California floods during those red letter days than I care to remember. I don't know what it is about that 10 day or so period, but that's when it comes...and comes big time.


Hope so sar! You are right of course about that 10 day time frame. We had the Nino Jet for a few storms earlier this month but it went south across Mexico and then to Nor Cal (which is great by the way) and they have done very well with rain and snow without any major issues. If the jet does change and it comes to Soo Cal, I worry about this scenario of a deep trof setting up over the rockies. With this type setup Soo Cal usually gets overland fronts/short waves. and thus drier systems. The ideal setup is the direct jet be it Polar or SubTropical into Soo Cal with no splitting before it crosses the coastline. SubTropical is usually wetter sometimes entraining tropical moisture. Pineapple express/atmospheric river of moisture can happen out of this. I had 2 good storms earlier this month with a combined total ofnearly 5". Jet moved south across Mexico and on to near Florida and all we have been getting recently are the weak tails of cold fronts going into Oregon and Nor Cal. So, I will take it either way, Polar or Subtropical......just give me a strong jet for 10 days at a time. Please............................................ ......?
This final band just may take Central Park over their record. A few tenths of an inch could decide it.



Quoting 1098. Dakster:

Are you snowed in BB?
Yes. 26" on the level :) BWI just may hit 30" with the 1 am update.
Surely they can wring out 0.1" by the next measurement (record is 26.9").

@NWSNewYorkNY
Central Park storm total snow accumulation as of midnight was 26.8 inches. That makes this the second largest snowstorm since 1869 in NYC.
Quoting 1100. Astrometeor:

How late did your food service go? I feel like we have one of the earliest closing food services in the country. Tonight, there were only two dinner locations. One closed at 7, the other at 9. Normally the latter goes to 11...which is early compared to a large number of institutions.
The main cafeterias stopped serving at 7:30 but there was a snack bar open till 11:30--cookies, chips, ice cream--but also hot dogs and hamburgers.
GFS from 10 days ago.

Quoting 1101. Dakster:

When I went to the University of Miami it closed at 7... and on the weekend even earlier....


Ours closes at 8 during january semester, 9 during the regular semester at the latest dining hall. There are enough snack foods in the possession of students to feed the campus 10x over if they ever shut down the dining halls (which they never will; in blizzards the food personnel remain stranded on campus or in nearby hotels and nothing is significantly disrupted.)
Hi, everyone! It's been a long day keeping up with Jonas and staffing the WU liveblog and Twitter feeds with WU meteorologist Shaun Tanner. (Jeff Masters is traveling, but back next week.] Needless to say, this has been one phenomenal storm.

I'm holding the promised Saturday evening update until we can get a few of the storm totals nailed down more firmly between now and midday Sunday. In the meantime, thanks for your patience and for contributing so much to the blog on this wild day. For those of you in the hard-hit areas, stay safe--but do send us updates and WunderPix as you can!
1112. ycd0108
Quoting 1074. win1gamegiantsplease:



I had it explained to me this way: recalling your life pre middle-age is like putting up a ladder against a house or tree slow and carefully, recalling your life after middle-age is like pushing it over.

Gotta think about that one!
I'll take it back to my blog and chew on it.
Quoting 1094. Tazmanian:



yes
Great, how's the weather up there.
KBWI had another inch since 7 pm. That takes it to 30.2". Final here downtown was 26" on the level, not remeasuring on a clean board every 6 hours.
Boston Snow Total - 6.1"
KLGA 29"

KJFK 30"

Both the airports are inside the city limits of New York City, so NYC has had their first 30" snow. As has Baltimore.
You got it, Bob (and Jeff). Great, and yeoman's, work, again, and here's hoping you realize just how much all of us "regulars" on the WU appreciate your efforts to bring the best, most timely, and most important information and "speculations" out here to all of us. I think such things are very important, and I know others think so too, else we wouldn't be here.

Hoping you and yours are well and safe there, too, and please... keep the information and the interesting subjects coming. :-)

Jo


An iced tree in Raleigh, Saturday afternoon January 23, 2015. Wish I had a good camera that does well at night, right now (2am) it's positively magical with the snow and ice. Glad we didn't get too much ice damage nearby, hopefully others are ok as well.
Got to love El Nino. Crazy weather.

150kt jet on tap for the deep south mid-late week. Oh joy..
Quoting 1120. ProgressivePulse:

Got to love El Nino. Crazy weather.

150kt jet on tap for the deep south mid-late week. Oh joy..


And I hope it is aimed at moi before it gets to you!
1122. hydrus
Quoting 1119. weblackey:



An iced tree in Raleigh, Saturday afternoon January 23, 2015. Wish I had a good camera that does well at night, right now (2am) it's positively magical with the snow and ice. Glad we didn't get too much ice damage nearby, hopefully others are ok as well.
Very cool pic Web..I must tell you it is absolutely stellar here. Over half a foot on the ground, full moon, 7 degrees...Mountains are shimmering with a brilliant silver light...:)
1123. vis0
Though its Sunday being a nu yauker nothing gets in my way ,so will take charge and go out to set forth today's tasks...

(sounds of a 5' 7'' guy trying to open a door that only opens outwardly and has 3-4 feet of snow drifts plus 18 inches of several flavours of  frozen snow on the entire block holding the door closed)

umph,    uhhmmmm,       ummmmmhphfffff

No problema i'll try emergency staircase door...

(sounds of a 5'7'' guy remembering that the exit door also opens outwardly only)

$^$%@@!

(sounds of a guy trying to talk a bribe on a tenant on the 1st floor to let them into their apartment so the guy can go out the 1st floor window)

OKAY here is  a 10 spot...

(the sound of a crinkled 10 dollar bill sliding under tenants door, the sounds of a crinkled 20 dollar bill under a tenants door...sounds of a 20 dollar bill and a 10 dollar bill being quickly pull by the tenant from under their side of the apartment door... ... sounds of a door staying closed & me cursing and roach laffing.)

sounds of me snoring back in bed...dreaming of the next wxModel run 200+ hours out

BE CAREFUL IN SHOVELING and sar2401 remember when you stated the dangers of helping someone when not done properly or sometimes one has to wait for official help to come.  Sadly one of the deaths came from North Carolina initial reports say happened during such an event on the road.



On business-science news, another company (3rd) testing space flights.
 REMEMBER let spaceX know of the idea to help land theier rockets without worrying of them tilting  and crashing on barges by using the idea in the animation::
View on YouTube (UNLISTED VIDEO till nexst week then it public for any company or country to use so patent now spaceX or competitors will use it, its faaah-ree...sure needs tweaking but one needs to start somewhere)
Quoting 1121. HurricaneHunterJoe:



And I hope it is aimed at moi before it gets to you!


And we are just gettin' rolling with all this. These systems will get progressively stronger in time. Now till the end of April.
Quoting 1124. ProgressivePulse:



And we are just gettin' rolling with all this. These systems will get progressively stronger in time. Now till the end of April.



Amen to that! I'm not even greedy. Just a few good strong storms in each of the next 3 months.
1126. vis0

Quoting 1088. Grothar:

SST anomaly might have given Jonas a little kick.



My crazy 3AM theory, read it to go to sleep DO NOT believe just enjoy.

What i see is what a WxU member stated during the Joaquin - fire hose flooding in the Carolinas.

paraphrasing,  Its like the front is forming its LOW

rest on my zilly blog pg.6 cmmnt#286
Warm Arctic Storms Aim to Unfreeze the North Pole Again — That’s 55 Degrees (F) Above Normal For January

It’s worth re-stating. The Starks were wrong. Winter isn’t coming. Winter, as we know it, is dying. Dying one tenth of a degree of global oceanic and atmospheric warming at a time. Steadily dying with each ton of heat-trapping greenhouse gasses emitted through our vastly irresponsible and terrifyingly massive burning of fossil fuels.

Link
1128. Dakster
Earthquake just hit in Alaska
1129. Dakster
6.4 - Wife called as it woke everyone up at the house...
1130. sar2401
Quoting 1129. Dakster:

6.4 - Wife called as it woke everyone up at the house...
Must have been a good shaker for her. Fairly close to Anchorage but also fairly deep. Doesn't seem to be anything but minor damage so far. Might be some felt aftershocks, and there's always a possibility of one as large as or greater than the original quake. It would be a good idea if she stayed awake and away from anything that might fall for today.
1131. hydrus
Quoting 1129. Dakster:

6.4 - Wife called as it woke everyone up at the house...
o thats nice....see what happens when i pee at this hour.?
1132. hydrus
Earthquake Track has it at 7.1....




7.1 magnitude earthquake

Today 35 minutes ago at 10:30
January 24, 2016 UTC

Location:
Epicenter at 59.659, -153.452
92.2 km from Anchor Point (57.2 miles)

Southern Alaska

Depth: 127 km.
Anyone have coffee?
1134. sar2401
Quoting 1114. Astrometeor:

The Weather Channel Management Squad, Summed Up
"Only old and lonely people watch it anyway"

BWHAhahaha....so true. :-)
1135. hydrus
Quoting 1133. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Anyone have coffee?
u bet...stocked up before the storm..Roads are a nightmare here when its nice...add ice and snow and its white death....The crosses roadside are a dead give away
1136. Dakster
It was upgraded to a 7.1. Other than widespread power outages no major damage reported. All of my family is ok. They about ran outside in PJs though the houses moved so much.
1137. sar2401
Quoting 1132. hydrus:

Earthquake Track has it at 7.1....




7.1 magnitude earthquake

Today 35 minutes ago at 10:30
January 24, 2016 UTC

Location:
Epicenter at 59.659, -153.452
92.2 km from Anchor Point (57.2 miles)

Southern Alaska

Depth: 127 km.
USGS site has it as 7.1 Seems as if there was some confusion initially over magnitude. Good thing is it was at least 128 km deep, so no tsunami risk form this one. What are you doing up?
1139. Dakster
My wife called all freaked out.. I was sleeping.
1140. sar2401
Quoting 1136. Dakster:

It was upgraded to a 7.1. Other than widespread power outages no major damage reported. All of my family is ok. They about ran outside in PJs though the houses moved so much.
I'll bet they did. I hate earthquakes having been through a couple of them in California. Most of the outages are from transformers kicking off due to fuses being activated by the shake. They should be able to restore service soon. Quakes are definitely one of the downside of living in Alaska.
1141. sar2401
Quoting 1138. hydrus:

Taking care of a cancer ridden Mother..Let me guess.....your Depends are out of order.?..:)
LOL. Just urinary urgency...:-) Tough job taking care of your mom I'm sure. I had to do it for my dad before he passed away.
1142. hydrus
Quoting 1139. Dakster:

My wife called all freaked out.. I was sleeping.
Godspeed to you and yours..I dont flinch when I hear Alaska got a shake...They gets so many
Quoting 1137. sar2401:

USGS site has it as 7.1 Seems as if there was some confusion initially over magnitude. Good thing is it was at least 128 km deep, so no tsunami risk form this one. What are you doing up?


I was in the BIG one March 1964 while my dad was stationed at Elmendorf AFB in Anchorage. Was sitting in a chair in living room when 1st jolt slid me and the chair across the room into a wall. Dad raced over to me ,held me in place in the chair.......that was my first earthquake and it is ingrained in my memory.
1144. sar2401
Quoting 1133. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Anyone have coffee?
Just making some now. I don't know what woke me up. Maybe it was longwave motion from Alaska all the way down here. Even tiny quakes used to wake me up in California.
1145. Dakster
Lots of above ground power line.. Paper reported one substation is damaged so that could be a longer fix depending on what broke.
1146. hydrus
Quoting 1141. sar2401:

LOL. Just urinary urgency...:-) Tough job taking care of your mom I'm sure. I had to do it for my dad be he passed away.
By far the hardest task I have ever faced....Besides losing friends and co-workers...
Quoting 1144. sar2401:

Just making some now. I don't know what woke me up. Maybe it was longwave motion from Alaska all the way down here. Even tiny quakes used to wake me up in California.


Haven't had a large one lately.......they keep mentioning Cascadia and San Andreas.... We'll see which one snaps first.
1148. Dakster
HHJ I meet people up there that lost friends and relatives to the 1964 earthquake.. 3 minutes of shaking must have been mind boggling.
Or maybe when the volcano's start popping off....the big one is coming.
1150. sar2401
Quoting 1139. Dakster:

My wife called all freaked out.. I was sleeping.
I get all freaked out too. One of the reasons I'm in Alabama. It's cold, it's hot, there are tornadoes and hurricanes...but no damn earthquakes. It would be a good idea when you get back to make sure there's nothing unsecured in your bedroom that can fall if you haven't already done so. I spent a lot of money on L brackets and molly bolts for all my heavy stuff.
1151. hydrus
Quoting 1143. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I was in the BIG one March 1964 while my dad was stationed at Elmendorf AFB in Anchorage. Was sitting in a chair in living room when 1st jolt slid me and the chair across the room into a wall. Dad raced over to me ,held me in place in the chair.......that was my first earthquake and it is ingrained in my memory.
I did a report on that one..The ground shook back and forth 12 feet, 7 times a second...It was catastrophically violent.
Quoting 1148. Dakster:

HHJ I meet people up there that lost friends and relatives to the 1964 earthquake.. 3 minutes of shaking must have been mind boggling. It slid very quickly........we had wood floors and throw rugs.


I don't remember it being that long.......just remember sliding the 30 feet in the big padded chair.
1153. sar2401
Quoting 1147. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Haven't had a large one lately.......they keep mentioning Cascadia and San Andreas.... We'll see which one snaps first.
NOt quite as much risk down there but still some. San Andreas for LA and the desert is inevitable. I could look out my front window and see the Rodgers Creek Fault, which will probably be the next one to go in the Bay Area.
Quoting 1151. hydrus:

I did a report on that one..The ground shook back and forth 12 feet, 7 times a second...It was catastrophically violent.


And Im not sure where Elmendorf was in relation....I know the base housing we were in stayed up.....do remember staying in our car for extended periods but not sleeping in the car.
1155. Dakster
Quoting 1150. sar2401:

I get all freaked out too. One of the reasons I'm in Alabama. It's cold, it's hot, there are tornadoes and hurricanes...but no damn earthquakes. It would be a good idea when you get back to make sure there's nothing unsecured in your bedroom that can fall if you haven't already done so. I spent a lot of money on L brackets and molly bolts for all my heavy stuff.


Nothing in the house is up high other than dishes in the cabinets.. Garage I'm worried about. Hope this isn't a volcano getting ready to blow.
1156. sar2401
Quoting 1152. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I don't remember it being that long.......just remember sliding the 30 feet in the big padded chair.
It was that long. There's a famous recording that was being done during the quake that was played for our geology class. It went on for almost three and a half minutes. I had to leave the classroom. I couldn't listen to the whole thing. Then I got pulled into rescue work on the Cypress Structure in Loma Prieta quake. Man, it was terrible...
1157. sar2401
Quoting 1155. Dakster:



Nothing in the house is up high other than dishes in the cabinets.. Garage I'm worried about. Hope this isn't a volcano getting ready to blow.
Quakes on the Peninsula are usually not associated with volcanoes. Just large faults that move around. Main thing is nothing that can fall on you when you are asleep. I'm such a wimp I had a pair of hard hats in a rack in the bedroom. Never know when they might come in handy. You can get really paranoid about such things.
1158. Dakster
Quoting 1154. HurricaneHunterJoe:



And Im not sure where Elmendorf was in relation....I know the base housing we were in stayed up.....do remember staying in our car for extended periods but not sleeping in the car.


Elmendorf is in the northern part of JBER between Anchorage and Eagle River. An area that didn't get major damage from the quake.. My wife worked on JBER last year.
1159. sar2401
Quoting 1154. HurricaneHunterJoe:



And Im not sure where Elmendorf was in relation....I know the base housing we were in stayed up.....do remember staying in our car for extended periods but not sleeping in the car.
It's right outside Anchorage. A lot of the base and housing suffered major damage in the '64 quake. You were probably in the car because your house wasn't uninhabitable. Do you remember sleeping in a kind of shelter with other people?
Location is near where one of the folks on the show Life Below Zero has a hunting/fishing lodge in Iliamna, Alaska. He is a hunting/fishing guide in the summer and then heads north to Brooks Range area.

Nearby Cities
83km (52mi) E of Old Iliamna, Alaska
261km (162mi) SW of Anchorage, Alaska
295km (183mi) SW of Knik-Fairview, Alaska
648km (403mi) SSW of College, Alaska
1024km (636mi) W of Whitehorse, Canada
1161. sar2401
Quoting 1158. Dakster:



Elmendorf is in the northern part of JBER between Anchorage and Eagle River. An area that didn't get major damage from the quake.. My wife worked on JBER last year.
There's some memories of the '64 quake here. I'm glad I wasn't at Elmendorf.
1162. Dakster
Aftershocks coming in now.

Richardson had more damage than elmendorf.. If my reading on the 1964 quake is correct.
Quoting 1159. sar2401:

It's right outside Anchorage. A lot of the base and housing suffered major damage in the '64 quake. You were probably in the car because your house wasn't uninhabitable. Do you remember sleeping in a kind of shelter with other people?


No sir, I do not. Just staying in the car in the parking lot where my dad usually parked in front of building. My dad did get transferred to GriffissAFB Rome NY that summer. Remember having a basement a little hall leading to the stairs to go down and storage shelfs and what a mess of broken glass jars and such. The building was a 2-story with bedrooms up on 2nd floor and I think the building had like 4-6 units.
1164. sar2401
Quoting 1145. Dakster:

Lots of above ground power line.. Paper reported one substation is damaged so that could be a longer fix depending on what broke.
Hopefully most if it is automatic protection tripping off. The utilities there have a lot of overpressure safety connections to isolate them from voltage spikes. Might not be more than a couple hour, I hope. Believe it or not, the temperature in Anchorage and Eufaula is the same right now at 23. Could be worse up there, I guess...
At least I think we had a basement.......I know for sure the hallway.......I was like 8 years old.
Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Sun, 24 Jan 3:48 am PST
Most Recent Observation: Sun, 24 Jan 3:40 am PST
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PST) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
24 Jan 3:40 am PST 37 35 93 NNW 1G02 OK
24 Jan 3:30 am PST 36 33 88 N 2G03 OK
1167. Dakster
Quoting 1164. sar2401:

Hopefully most if it is automatic protection tripping off. The utilities there have a lot of overpressure safety connections to isolate them from voltage spikes. Might not be more than a couple hour, I hope. Believe it or not, the temperature in Anchorage and Eufaula is the same right now at 23. Could be worse up there, I guess...


My wife has power.. Trees were swaying back and forth with the tops of them hitting the ground. Probably right about the circuit breakers tripping.. Yeah it could be 20 below right now.....
1168. sar2401
Quoting 1163. HurricaneHunterJoe:



No sir, I do not. Just staying in the car in the parking lot where my dad usually parked in front of building. My dad did get transferred to GriffissAFB Rome NY that summer. Remember having a basement a little hall leading to the stairs to go down and storage shelfs and what a mess of broken glass jars and such. The building was a 2-story with bedrooms up on 2nd floor and I think the building had like 4-6 units.
Might just have been a precaution on your dad's part. There wasn't the same understanding of quakes in '64 as is now, and the military didn't have all the safety measures they do now. I was a senior in high school just getting ready to graduate when the quake hit. We were off from school due to Easter. I spent the next three days on my ham radio in the basement relaying messages from Alaska to points east of Ohio. Ham radio was about the only form of communication there for at least three days.
1169. sar2401
Quoting 1167. Dakster:



My wife has power.. Trees were swaying back and forth with the tops of them hitting the ground. Probably right about the circuit breakers tripping.. Yeah it could be 20 below right now.....
I hope that's all it is. The ground motion up there can get amazingly severe. Have you ever looked at a geology report for the area you live in? If it's on alluvial soil, the ground motion is magnified.
1170. sar2401
Quoting 1165. HurricaneHunterJoe:

At least I think we had a basement.......I know for sure the hallway.......I was like 8 years old.
You probably didn't have a basement but who knows? Except for incidents like that, I don't remember much from when I was 8 either. That was like 200 years ago now. :-)
1171. sar2401
Quoting 1162. Dakster:

Aftershocks coming in now.

Richardson had more damage than elmendorf.. If my reading on the 1964 quake is correct.
Richardson did have more damage. They almost decided to abandon the fort instead of rebuild but finally decided to rebuild as it was the only large Army installation in Alaska. Now I guess it's combined with Elmendorf. The military has really been run down in the past 20 years. A lot of the help in Anchorage in the days after the quake came from the military. I was going through a MARS radio relay to pass traffic after the quake.
1172. LargoFl
NYC Late last night............................................. .....................
1173. Dakster
Quoting 1171. sar2401:

Richardson did have more damage. They almost decided to abandon the fort instead of rebuild but finally decided to rebuild as it was the only large Army installation in Alaska. Now I guess it's combined with Elmendorf. The military has really been run down in the past 20 years. A lot of the help in Anchorage in the days after the quake came from the military. I was going through a MARS radio relay to pass traffic after the quake.


Military up there helps with a lot of things... Police chases, search and rescue, etc... A lot more than they are allowed (or asked ) to help down in South Florida.

I look at the geo studies in the area I rented in. It's in the 'green' zone. The Anchorage bowl has a lot of reds and oranges in it. But apparently you are not immune no matter where you live.

It's Joint Base Elmendorf Richardson now or JBER. Rich borders downtown Anchorage and Elmendorf is further north.

I traded hurricanes for earthquakes... Not sure I did a good trade on that. I do like the weather and the area a lot better than South Florida though. For me, it's just I needed a change and a change to help my health out. It is in the 40s down here today and I am finally getting some much needed relief.
1174. sar2401
Anyway, no earthquakes here, thank goodness. Looks like the high finally pushed the storm offshore just soon enough that Central Park came in one tenth shy of the record. If TA was there, he would have found the right drift to push it over. :-) Even with high clouds this morning I'm still at 23, four degrees below the predicted low. The next big storm can be seen getting ready in the West.

1175. Dakster
Stay warm SAR.... Could be a long lasting white winter in the NE US afterall...

I am going to try and get a little more sleep now... :)

Of course now the telemarketer will call at 8am...
1176. sar2401
Quoting 1173. Dakster:



Military up there helps with a lot of things... Police chases, search and rescue, etc... A lot more than they are allowed (or asked ) to help down in South Florida.

I look at the geo studies in the area I rented in. It's in the 'green' zone. The Anchorage bowl has a lot of reds and oranges in it. But apparently you are not immune no matter where you live.

It's Joint Base Elmendorf Richardson now or JBER. Rich borders downtown Anchorage and Elmendorf is further north.

I traded hurricanes for earthquakes... Not sure I did a good trade on that. I do like the weather and the area a lot better than South Florida though. For me, it's just I needed a change and a change to help my health out. It is in the 40s down here today and I am finally getting some much needed relief.
Yes, I don't think many people realize all the military does for the civilian sector. I'm hoping we're done using them to help balance the budget at this point. As long as you're not on alluvium, you should be relatively fine in an earthquake. Of course, a repeat of '64 is so huge that it was only a matter of degree when it came to damage. Downtown Anchorage is about the worst place anyone can be in a quake. The good thing about '64 was the improved building codes after, just like hurricanes in Florida. If your house was built after 64, it should be OK. I'm glad you also got some of this cold air down there. Looks like we get a quick warmup into the 60's by Monday and more rain on Tuesday.
1177. sar2401
Quoting 1175. Dakster:

Stay warm SAR.... Could be a long lasting white winter in the NE US afterall...

I am going to try and get a little more sleep now... :)

Of course now the telemarketer will call at 8am...
Yeah, sleep is a good thing now. At least my furnaces are in tip-top order.
1178. sar2401
Quoting 1052. BaltimoreBrian:

Angela Fritz gets feisty: Washington, D.C., snowfall total called into question after improper measurement
I don't know that snow with such a relatively low moisture content suffered from compaction. I have no idea why National doesn't use a snow board for measurement but, in blizzard conditions, you don't use a snow board anyway. As she says, the NCDC will do a quality study and look at other measurements in the area. If the ones at National don't match up, they will be adjusted post-storm. Some of what I've read about this is people getting all butt hurt because another place had a record and they didn't. It's a little immature.
1179. 1Zach1
Good Morning. The Big Dig-Out begins today, good luck to all of us who will be spending a good amount of time getting things cleared up. Remember to take it slow and stay hydrated.
1180. sar2401
Quoting 1179. 1Zach1:

Good Morning. The Big Dig-Out begins today, good luck to all of us who will be spending a good amount of time getting things cleared up. Remember to take it slow and stay hydrated.
Yes, indeed, I remember those days. Getting dressed in four layers, then pushed out the door by the Old Man after being handed my shovel. Wondering exactly where the sidewalk and driveway was, since everything pretty much looked the same. Shoveling for 15 minutes before finally realizing I was on the lawn instead of the sidewalk. Me and my brother finally getting the driveway done when the plow came by and deposited all the snow back in the driveway again. Yes, fond memories, which I have no wish to repeat. Good luck.
UPTON, NY
M27.6 INCH BRONX ZOO
M30.5 INCH QUEENS
M26.8 INCH NEW YORK PARK
M23.0 INCH SUFFOLK
M29.6 INCH NASSAU
M27.5 INCH UNION NJ
M15.5 INCH NEW HAVEN CT
1182. vis0
FIRST NYC SANITATION DID A VERY GOOD JOB where i walked 14st. to 42st 2nd ave to 14th st. 8th ave, i know its Manhattan but the top thing was no cars , buses blocking the p;lows helped immensely. i walked along with Sis to her job the Only open clothing store in NYC below 34th st., boss arrived 1 hr late but boss came walking from 9 miles away arrived 7:30AM, though why open a store use up fuel unless the store has a bill that pays on a set basis.

i thought Manhattan received 16-20 inches but i measured what appeared as flat not blown areas of snowfall and measured 18, 19.2,19,20,24,22.6, 22.1 mainly on or near 23rd st.

Had ~16 seagulls and ~20 pigeons follow me for the 4-5 miles & sis she's always amazed that they follow me when i have my portable ml-d on (and a bag of doughnuts in my pocket & crumbs on my lips). Again ml-d up-wells cooler air so bird prefer the stronger cooler air up welling than warmer lighter air up-welling. In real life the cooler air is not good for keeping air-crafts in the air but when your over the ml-d its fantastic...or so the birds chirp me. (broke my promise never to post ml-d on Dr. Masters, maybe an exception for 20+'' of snow)

Now how soon will the mountains of snow take to be gone plus ice puddles blocking sewers?????

LOTS OF LEDGES HAVE 6 inches or more of snow Metropolitan Life building has 2 feet icicles LOTS BE VERY CAREFUL and carry umbrellas the entire week to protect from falling  ice, and stay away from tall buildings walk on the Hudson river : - P. OH one more thing

@$#$#@!!! forgot the camera! the sunrise was amazing.  There was a lady photographer on 23rd st & Madison Sq, Park she will have GREAT PHOTOS
Baltimore MD/Washington, DC won storm reports with 3480. Here is a few highlight snow totals.

M30.0 INCH BALTIMORE MD
M32.1 INCH PRINCE WILLIAM VA
M31.0 INCH FREDERICK MD
M30.8 INCH MONTGOMERY MD
M31.5 INCH MONTGOMERY MD
M36.3 INCH LOUDOUN VA
M40.5 INCH JEFFERSON WV
M31.3 INCH WASHINGTON MD
M35.5 INCH JEFFERSON WV
M35.0 INCH FREDERICK MD
M30.8 INCH FAIRFAX VA
M30.0 INCH FAUQUIER VA
M37.3 INCH LOUDOUN VA
M31.0 INCH HARFORD MD
M30.0 INCH ALBEMARLE VA
M37.5 INCH WASHINGTON MD
1184. weesej
So my official total was 30"...ano official reading with a snowboard was done very close to my house. I knew I was going to come short due to compaction but not 5". I can't wait to get a real weather station and do measurements but my kiddos need to get a little bigger. Last time I tried they just kept messing with my rain gauge and dumping it....defeats the purpose.
Quoting 1178. sar2401:

I don't know that snow with such a relatively low moisture content suffered from compaction. I have no idea why National doesn't use a snow board for measurement but, in blizzard conditions, you don't use a snow board anyway. As she says, the NCDC will do a quality study and look at other measurements in the area. If the ones at National don't match up, they will be adjusted post-storm. Some of what I've read about this is people getting all butt hurt because another places had a record and they didn't. It's a little immature.
"Butt hurt"? "Immature"? Seriously? I've seen people here spend dozens of column-inches griping about such things as the capitalization of NWS information statements, the NHC being five minutes late with a TWO, and the kerning used for the forum font--all things of vastly less import than scientific accuracy. It's never wrong to question methodology when specious results are obtained; in fact, that's how science works. And it's certainly not "immature" to do so...
Quoting 1184. weesej:

So my official total was 30"...ano official reading with a snowboard was done very close to my house. I knew I was going to come short due to compaction but not 5". I can't wait to get a real weather station and do measurements but my kiddos need to get a little bigger. Last time I tried they just kept messing with my rain gauge and dumping it....defeats the purpose.

High winds yesterday added a few inches of rain to my rain gauge. Next time I go up there I'm taking the rain gauge off the pole.

Wind finished off the shanty barn too.
1187. LargoFl
Seven of NYC's ten biggest snowfall events on record--including the two largest--have occurred in the past 20 years. The remaining four* were spread out over the previous 127 years:



* - Events in 1935 and 1941 are tied for tenth place.
1189. weesej
Quoting 1180. sar2401:

Yes, indeed, I remember those days. Getting dressed in four layers, then pushed out the door by the Old Man after being handed my shovel. Wondering exactly where the sidewalk and driveway was, since everything pretty much looked the same. Shoveling for 15 minutes before finally realizing I was on the lawn instead of the sidewalk. Me and my brother finally getting the driveway done when the plow came by and deposited all the snow back in the driveway again. Yes, fond memories, which I have no wish to repeat. Good luck.


Lol! Got sent out once in Northern MI after an epic lake effect event and sent up the garage door to a solid 30" flat. You couldn't even see the previous good sized snow piles on the edges of the driveway.

Doesn't compare to the year after I was first married and living on the Keweenaw peninsula and lost the battle against the snow. We had the hire a front loader to dig us out....could walk onto the roof from the side drifts....got 301" that year....48" snowpack. THAT I have no desire to repeat....a nice nor'easter every few years.....no biggie
Looks like the Snowpocalypsaggedonzilla is headed for the UK. From The Telegraph:

"An active cold front is expected to become slow-moving across Wales, north-west England and south and west Scotland through Tuesday, and into Wednesday, before clearing to the south on Wednesday afternoon.
Warm air of tropical origins is expected to be entrained into the system, leading to abundant moisture and heavy rain.

Many parts of the warning area could see 50-100 mm of rain, whilst the most exposed upland parts of north Wales, north-west England and south-west Scotland could see 150-200 mm."


Tuesday? That must be some kind of speed record for a storm crossing the Atlantic.
1191. vis0
  NOT MY VID, was on ABC7 NYC on their site they have much more please visit ABC7 for more VIDS.
The instagram is, Instagram/Irhartsock
Do not go to my youtube for more go to ABC& or the instagram URL.



biggest swell of the yr heading towards oahu. will the winds be favorable for the Eddie to go http://www.surfnewsnetwork.com/your-latest-local-s well-tracker/
1193. weesej
The digging starts... Link

In the 30-36" band on NWS we were one of the higher total areas from Jonas.

Volcano Activity in Mexico on January 23 2016 04:48 AM (UTC).

The Popocatepetl volcano has spewed out a mile-high plume of ash into the sky - putting scores of lives at risk. The Mexican city - just 35 miles from Mexico City and 20 miles from nearby Peubla - is now on evacuation alert. It last saw a major eruption in 2000, yet 41,000 people were evacuated in advance - averting catastrophe. Activity has been increasing since 2012 following a minor eruption in 2005. Now officials are so worried about a potential disaster they have issued an early warning. The volcano has erupted 20 times in nearly 500 years. Another volcano, the Colima, sent out a 1.8-mile high eruption earlier this month. A report on wired.com said: "Two Mexican volcanoes have been increasingly active. "Popocatepetl produced a number of explosions as lava reaches the surface at the active vent, as evidenced by incandescence spotted at the volcano's summit. "Most of the explosions produced ash-rich plumes that reached hundreds of meters over the volcano, "Some officials are saying that there is a heightened danger of a large explosive eruption from Colima because it has been over 100 years since that last large eruption. "The heightened explosive activity at Colima has prompted preparations for evacuations if the restlessness continues or increases."

Published on Jan 23, 2016
by Kat Martin
Caught this on the live cam by luck. Just as sunset was happening, it erupted and the results were....beautiful!
So the "official" but not "official" because of improper measuring procedures for Washington D.C. was 17.8"

And people always wonder why Regan National totals don't match anywhere else.
1196. Grothar
Quoting 1100. Astrometeor:



How late did your food service go? I feel like we have one of the earliest closing food services in the country. Tonight, there were only two dinner locations. One closed at 7, the other at 9. Normally the latter goes to 11...which is early compared to a large number of institutions.


At VPI food service closed at 7. I was REALLY torqued when I transferred to PSU and it closed at 6:30. One way you have it better than we did. The food was better at VPI too but of course met was much much better at PSU.

1198. vis0
i removed forgot to press post left in preview

Quoting 1150. sar2401:

I get all freaked out too. One of the reasons I'm in Alabama. It's cold, it's hot, there are tornadoes and hurricanes...but no damn earthquakes. It would be a good idea when you get back to make sure there's nothing unsecured in your bedroom that can fall if you haven't already done so. I spent a lot of money on L brackets and molly bolts for all my heavy stuff.


That and housing prices are why I have declined job offers in California, in particular at Monterrey.
Quoting 1127. RobertWC:

Warm Arctic Storms Aim to Unfreeze the North Pole Again — That’s 55 Degrees (F) Above Normal For January

It’s worth re-stating. The Starks were wrong. Winter isn’t coming. Winter, as we know it, is dying. Dying one tenth of a degree of global oceanic and atmospheric warming at a time. Steadily dying with each ton of heat-trapping greenhouse gasses emitted through our vastly irresponsible and terrifyingly massive burning of fossil fuels.

Link


This is sadly true and although Arctic winters are still brutal, they start a few weeks later and the Inuit can't count on continued deepfreeze cold anymore and guaranteed thick ice December-May. That is really a radical change in my lifetime.
Quoting 1115. BaltimoreBrian:

KBWI had another inch since 7 pm. That takes it to 30.2". Final here downtown was 26" on the level, not remeasuring on a clean board every 6 hours.

In College Park MD I only have 16"
Sadly, Jonas will likely lead to more deaths today as people dig out; heart attacks from shoveling snow are one of the leading causes of deaths related to any such event. So if you suffer from heart problems, diabetes, or high blood pressure, or if you're just terribly out of shape, don't go out in the cold and overexert yourself.

Please.
Quoting 1114. Astrometeor:

The Weather Channel Management Squad, Summed Up


I wish this were just true of TWC!!!! It's a nationwide disease and disgrace throughout our corporate infrastructure.
1204. guygee
Quoting 1100. Astrometeor:



How late did your food service go? I feel like we have one of the earliest closing food services in the country. Tonight, there were only two dinner locations. One closed at 7, the other at 9. Normally the latter goes to 11...which is early compared to a large number of institutions.
I loved the 24-hour North Campus library hours, the nearby all-night coffee shops and the late-night public transportation in the all-too-brief time I worked for UM in Ann Arbor. Unfortunately my wife hated living there.
Quoting 1084. Astrometeor:

Also, it seems like a so many people up here hate the snow. Comments I've seen today on the social media feed for campus:

"Ugh, snowed in and nothing to do"

"Why is the wifi stinking? I can't do anything outside."

Me: "How about go play in the snow?"

Most of campus: "Ew! I hate snow!"

If you hate it that much, go to a college that doesn't have any. I don't get YOUNG people that hate their own weather. I can understand older adults, what with worries about jobs, bosses, food, school for kids, etc. etc. But these are young kids who should be out playing in the snow, instead they're complaining there's nothing to do.

There's something wrong with the world.

P.S. Despite being the southern kid, turns out I'm the best at navigating deep snow and keeping my balance. :)


this is unnerving. I see fewer and fewer kids outside playing in any kind of weather compared with ten years ago and esp compared with 45 years ago when I was twelve. everyone does screen stuff or scheduled, planned and controlled activities.
Good morning and afternoon, all. 32 degrees this morning in west central LA. Watching Jonas reminded me of 78. I will always smile as I remember being back at college early before everyone else because of student teaching. There was a handful of us. When the snow ended we went out to help maintenance with shoveling out cars. One of my friends was from Puerto Rico. We all selected a car and started shoveling. When we'd all finished our first cars we looked around. My friend from Puerto Rico had shoveled out the car, but had shoveled the snow to behind another car. We'd never thought to explain how to do it. Needless to say when we told her she'd have to shovel out that car as well with the now extra snow, she quit shoveling. *G*

Breakfast's on the sideboard: beignets smothered in powdered sugar, banana or corn fritters, broiled boudin patties, bacon and cheddar eggs Sardou, scrambled eggs with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, big fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, Andouille sausage and shrimp scramble, cheesy grits with shrimp, Broccoli and cheddar oatmeal, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea and Creole coffee. Enjoy!
1207. hydrus
Quoting 1206. aislinnpaps:

Good morning and afternoon, all. 32 degrees this morning in west central LA. Watching Jonas reminded me of 78. I will always smile as I remember being back at college early before everyone else because of student teaching. There was a handful of us. When the snow ended we went out to help maintenance with shoveling out cars. One of my friends was from Puerto Rico. We all selected a car and started shoveling. When we'd all finished our first cars we looked around. My friend from Puerto Rico had shoveled out the car, but had shoveled the snow to behind another car. We'd never thought to explain how to do it. Needless to say when we told her she'd have to shovel out that car as well with the now extra snow, she quit shoveling. *G*

Breakfast's on the sideboard: beignets smothered in powdered sugar, banana or corn fritters, broiled boudin patties, bacon and cheddar eggs Sardou, scrambled eggs with crawfish Étouffée to pour over it, big fluffy biscuits with sausage gravy, Andouille sausage and shrimp scramble, cheesy grits with shrimp, Broccoli and cheddar oatmeal, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea and Creole coffee. Enjoy!
I,ll have 6 eggs, 2 apples, and the shrimpy grits..
1208. vis0
Quoting 1190. yonzabam:

Looks like the Snowpocalypsaggedonzilla is headed for the UK. From The Telegraph:

"An active cold front is expected to become slow-moving across Wales, north-west England and south and west Scotland through Tuesday, and into Wednesday, before clearing to the south on Wednesday afternoon.
Warm air of tropical origins is expected to be entrained into the system, leading to abundant moisture and heavy rain.

Many parts of the warning area could see 50-100 mm of rain, whilst the most exposed upland parts of north Wales, north-west England and south-west Scotland could see 150-200 mm."


Tuesday? That must be some kind of speed record for a storm crossing the Atlantic.

What i though was so weird it slowed down and just as its squeezing out the ;last few flakes it pulls a "BEEP BEEP  zzzoOM" - ROAD RUNNER MOVE.  Didn't check sat imagery clearly, was it a front or southern or northern jet stream that took Jonus away so fast or did Jonas slip on black ice?
1209. barbamz
Good morning. A lot of impressive timelapse videos of Jonas-Snowzilla available. Here one of them:


(Youtube caption:) 23.01.2016: Exactly 12,160 Pictures were taken in this time lapse over an approximate 18 hour time frame. The measurement of snow on the yardstick you see in the background read 36 inches, and you can see on the door pre storm a marking of 3 feet. I thought it was neat to see the compaction of snow as well as the melting of the snow from the house, but it came right back! More snow in the front and side yards measured 37". As snow piled on I had to change the battery as well as the angle away a bit from the 2 foot mark. Hope you enjoyed.

And this one is very nice as well:

in the tropics we dont have black ice but mildew or mold is slippery enough
Quoting 1205. georgevandenberghe:



this is unnerving. I see fewer and fewer kids outside playing in any kind of weather compared with ten years ago and esp compared with 45 years ago when I was twelve. everyone does screen stuff or scheduled, planned and controlled activities.


When I was a kid growing up in the Washington D.C. area, the morning after a good snow most the kids in the neighborhood would be at the local hill in the neighborhood sledding and having a good time.
It didn't matter how cold it was outside, the hill would be packed with kids sliding down the hill.

I don't live in the area anymore so I can't compare it to today. I would like to see the same hill today to make a comparison to when I was a kid living there.
Quoting 1199. georgevandenberghe:



That and housing prices are why I have declined job offers in California, in particular at Monterrey.



I was with my folks once and they like watching diy/hgtv stuff. Saw this couple in CA flipping a house and sold it for 700-800. It wasn't even 1000 sq ft.
1213. LargoFl
Quoting 1200. georgevandenberghe:



This is sadly true and although Arctic winters are still brutal, they start a few weeks later and the Inuit can't count on continued deepfreeze cold anymore and guaranteed thick ice December-May. That is really a radical change in my lifetime.

I guess what we all should be worrying about is the oceans salinity with all the ice supposedly melting and adding all that fresh water into the oceans...IF a certain ocean current quits..life changing things will be in mans future.
1214. LargoFl
we don't know what the future holds,we can surely guess, but one thing we must remember, unlike the Dinosaurs and other species that have vanished, Humans are special in a way,Man has learned how to adapt to changes in the weather,if the earth warms too much man will adapt,if the earth cools and an ice age comes, man will adapt..yes many could perish but there will be humans who survive.somewhere to renew the species..its what seperates us from the animal kingdom..we can adapt.

Quoting 1211. Sfloridacat5:



When I was a kid growing up in the Washington D.C. area, the morning after a good snow most the kids in the neighborhood would be at the local hill in the neighborhood sledding and having a good time.
It didn't matter how cold it was outside, the hill would be packed with kids sliding down the hill.

I don't live in the area anymore so I can't compare it to today. I would like to see the same hill today to make a comparison to when I was a kid living there.


In 2004 on a bright breezy upper 20s afternoon with 3" of snow on the ground and good sledding, I took my three kids to our good hill. Sadly we were the only ones there although on other days with temps above freezing, there were a lot of kids. Overall not as many as when we were kids. :-(
Quoting 1213. LargoFl:

I guess what we all should be worrying about is the oceans salinity with all the ice supposedly melting and adding all that fresh water into the oceans...IF a certain ocean current quits..life changing things will be in mans future.
1) The ice isn't "supposedly" melting any more than the earth is "supposedly" spherical;

2) Whether or not the Gulf Stream is shut down by an overwhelming influx of cold, low-saline water, "life-changing" things are in man's future. In fact, they're in our present. (See: Winter Storm Jonas)
Quoting 1214. LargoFl:

we don't know what the future holds,we can surely guess, but one thing we must remember, unlike the Dinosaurs and other species that have vanished, Humans are special in a way,Man has learned how to adapt to changes in the weather,if the earth warms too much man will adapt,if the earth cools and an ice age comes, man will adapt..yes many could perish but there will be humans who survive.somewhere to renew the species..its what seperates us from the animal kingdom..we can adapt.


Rosches, rats and crocks adapted pretty well.
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 11h11 hours ago
Snow Potential Index: 1/10 (↓) Midweek snow shower chance and late-week storm well south for now keep the SPI from zeroing out
Quoting 1136. Dakster:

It was upgraded to a 7.1. Other than widespread power outages no major damage reported. All of my family is ok. They about ran outside in PJs though the houses moved so much.


Good to hear. I guess you guys in AK are somewhat used to them, how often does a 7 mw occur?

And I'm with sar, I think CA and the like is beautiful, but I'll take living where a major cane could hit head on over worrying about the "big one," especially in the Cascades.
1220. ChiThom
IDK, LargoFl, adapting by dying seems a little brutal to me. As populations migrate there will be wars and terrorism, too. It's all too sanguine for my liking.
Quoting 1214. LargoFl:

we don't know what the future holds,we can surely guess, but one thing we must remember, unlike the Dinosaurs and other species that have vanished, Humans are special in a way,Man has learned how to adapt to changes in the weather,if the earth warms too much man will adapt,if the earth cools and an ice age comes, man will adapt..yes many could perish but there will be humans who survive.somewhere to renew the species..its what seperates us from the animal kingdom..we can adapt.
Dinosaurs roamed the planet for about 165 million years until a massive meteorite killed off the last of them. We modern humans, on the other hand, have only been here about 200,000 years, and we've already managed to haul ourselves to the edge of the precipice. The only way we're "special" is that we're the only species that's ever been able threaten not just our own existence, but the existence of countless others.

Yay, us.

P.S. -- No "ice age" will get us out of this. At least not for, say, 100,000 years or so.
1222. barbamz

(Click to enlarge) A Blizzard by Moonlight NASA Earth Observatory, January 24, 2016

1223. hydrus
Quoting 1216. Neapolitan:

1) The ice isn't "supposedly" melting any more than the earth is "supposedly" spherical;

2) Whether or not the Gulf Stream is shut down by an overwhelming influx of cold, low-saline water, "life-changing" things are in man's future. In fact, they're in our present. (See: Winter Storm Jonas)
Good morning Nea..This will be an abbreviated post, but I wanted to hit on this topic. The Gulf Stream has changed so fast, that there is a real possibility of a cold shift in the Northern Hemisphere. I am not saying that the climate will not continue to warm, but I have started putting together evidence that the weather and currents in the north may take a drastic turn to colder conditions, even as the globe as a whole increases in temperature. Some will think I,m crazy...I,m not.
1224. hydrus
Quoting 1221. Neapolitan:

Dinosaurs roamed the planet for about 165 million years until a massive meteorite killed off the last of them. We modern humans, on the other hand, have only been here about 200,000 years, and we've already managed to haul ourselves to the edge of the precipice. The only way we're "special" is that we're the only species that's ever been able threaten not just our own existence, but the existence of countless others.

Yay, us.

P.S. -- No "ice age" will get us out of this. At least not for, say, 100,000 years or so.
The Deccan Traps were active 65 million years ago too, so there demise was twofold.
1225. ChiThom
I was offline for a couple of days during the storm. No, we didn't have snow or high winds; our electrical power went out for five hours on Friday, and then the internet stayed off for most of Saturday. No snow here. Go figure!
I'll add that comcast is as bad as everyone says. We spent over 24 hrs on the phone repeatedly with their techs, who ultimately told us we would have to cough-up $220.00 to get our TV and internets back on. We balked, told them NO, and then it was fixed for no extra charge when our daughter spent an hour on the phone with them on Saturday. They didn't have to come out here, nor climb a pole...it was all done remotely, but some of the so-called techs don't know what they are doing. Getting service from them is a crap-shoot. My two cents.
So many gigantic marshmallows on the street this morning. Where did they come from?
1227. hydrus
Quoting 1226. Tornado6042008X:

So many gigantic marshmallows on the street this morning. Where did they come from?
Gigantic marshmallow factory outlet
Quoting 1213. LargoFl:

I guess what we all should be worrying about is the oceans salinity with all the ice supposedly melting and adding all that fresh water into the oceans...IF a certain ocean current quits..life changing things will be in mans future.


Life changing most immediately for a small portion of the globe. Conditions in northern Europe would edge closer to the climate of Alaska. But if you're thinking that it would result in an ice age then you're very much mistaken. You could coat all of northern Europe in a nice coat of white snow and you wouldn't even come close to increasing albedo enough to counteract the additional forcing from anthropogenic CO2 and other GHGs. Basic thermodynamics.

But the current won't "quit", and neither will the heat. It just wouldn't travel as far north. Without all that warm water being able to dissipate heat into the arctic, it will simply build up where it is. This would end up drastically affecting weather patterns in the northern hemisphere.
1229. 7000ppm
Quoting 1214. LargoFl:

[...].yes many could perish but there will be humans who survive.somewhere to renew the species..its what seperates us from the animal kingdom..we can adapt.


Actually, putting aside the cruelty of the preventable, premeditated murder of millions of people, your claim is false: according to the fossil record, the metabolism of most primates, including homo sapiens, has a very low tolerance for CO2 - we "adapt" to high CO2 levels by dying out.

In fact human tolerance is even worse than that: higher brain functions already suffer measurably at 600 ppm - this is one of the reasons why many industrial nations already regulate the maximum acceptable levels of CO2 to 1000-2000 ppm in office buildings and other work environments.

You need to stop the poisoning of our only home planet with CO2 and misinformation.
1230. hydrus
Quoting 1228. Xyrus2000:



Life changing most immediately for a small portion of the globe. Conditions in northern Europe would edge closer to the climate of Alaska. But if you're thinking that it would result in an ice age then you're very much mistaken. You could coat all of northern Europe in a nice coat of white snow and you wouldn't even come close to increasing albedo enough to counteract the additional forcing from anthropogenic CO2 and other GHGs. Basic thermodynamics.

But the current won't "quit", and neither will the heat. It just wouldn't travel as far north. Without all that warm water being able to dissipate heat into the arctic, it will simply build up where it is. This would end up drastically affecting weather patterns in the northern hemisphere.
A lot of this will come down to timing of the Milankovitch Cycles. Not to mention the unknowns that may occur with or without our knowing...
Plenty of sun right now. But looks like some patches of weak clouds want to pay us a visit later today.







Temperature 86°F - Wind E 8 mph - RH 60%.
Quoting 1226. Tornado6042008X:

So many gigantic marshmallows on the street this morning. Where did they come from?
well get ready more is coming and again after that in fact the entire month of February may go down as the snow month from hell

everyone will get their turn before its done then march well lets get feb out of the way first then I will tell ya about march
1234. hydrus
Quoting 1232. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well get ready more is coming and again after that in fact the entire month of February may go down as the snow month from hell


Yep..And if there is a shift with the 10 mb model, it may be worse than hell...and i,m not b.s.
1235. weesej
Quoting 1223. hydrus:

Good morning Nea..This will be an abbreviated post, but I wanted to hit on this topic. The Gulf Stream has changed so fast, that there is a real possibility of a cold shift in the Northern Hemisphere. I am not saying that the climate will not continue to warm, but I have started putting together evidence that the weather and currents in the north may take a drastic turn to colder conditions, even as the globe as a whole increases in temperature. Some will think I,m crazy...I,m not.


Totally with you Hydrus, would love to read what you are putting together
Quoting 1214. LargoFl:

we don't know what the future holds,we can surely guess, but one thing we must remember, unlike the Dinosaurs and other species that have vanished, Humans are special in a way,Man has learned how to adapt to changes in the weather,if the earth warms too much man will adapt,if the earth cools and an ice age comes, man will adapt..yes many could perish but there will be humans who survive.somewhere to renew the species..its what seperates us from the animal kingdom..we can adapt.


The only way humans are special is that we're the first species that is capable of destroying itself. Unlike other species, we don't have the excuse of "didn't see that one coming" to fall back on.

You seem to think humans can magically adapt to any circumstance. We can't, and in fact we almost didn't. Modern humans missed going extinct by the narrowest of margins, which was caused by...wait for it...massive global climate change.

You're assuming that the changes that come along with climate change are just temperature. When climate changes, so does everything else. This includes disease vectors, invasive species, extinctions, and areas of habitability. For example, the world depends on a very small percentage of the Earth's land surface to supply food. If that all goes, so does the rest of civilization.

Dismissing climate change with "we will just adapt" is, quite frankly, extremely naive.
1237. ChiThom
Quoting 1188. Neapolitan:

Seven of NYC's ten biggest snowfall events on record--including the two largest--have occurred in the past 20 years. The remaining four* were spread out over the previous 127 years:



* - Events in 1935 and 1941 are tied for tenth place.

NYC had a big snowstorm in 1960. I guess it wasn't top ten, but it was big. My Grandmother died that year in NYC, shoveling snow, trying to dig-out the car. :-(
Quoting 1221. Neapolitan:

Dinosaurs roamed the planet for about 165 million years until a massive meteorite killed off the last of them. We modern humans, on the other hand, have only been here about 200,000 years, and we've already managed to haul ourselves to the edge of the precipice. The only way we're "special" is that we're the only species that's ever been able threaten not just our own existence, but the existence of countless others.

Yay, us.

P.S. -- No "ice age" will get us out of this. At least not for, say, 100,000 years or so.


I'm not so sure this level of pessimism would be productive in uniting people for changing our fuel usage methods. Even if scientists could somehow predict when humanity will meet it's doom due to AGW, it's better to go down trying then assume our doom will be met. And yes, while humans aren't special, they are rather unique, at least on Earth, anyway.


Don't get me wrong, I'm afraid many may die in the future, as the massive human population is being sustained by the boom of the scientific age, but not all of us will perish.
Quoting 1232. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well get ready more is coming and again after that in fact the entire month of February may go down as the snow month from hell




I had that one last year with banks of ten feet on both sides of my driveway. Or was it eight feet? They keep getting bigger in my memory every time I think of a possible storm.
I was wondering if anyone would be kind enough to post some graphics or maps of the next system for thursday/friday next week gulp.
Quoting 1240. Mikeylikesthesite:

I was wondering if anyone would be kind enough to post some graphics or maps of the next system for thursday/friday next week gulp.


Here you go, although it looks like the big guy is offshore for now:

Quoting 1225. ChiThom:

I was offline for a couple of days during the storm. No, we didn't have snow or high winds; our electrical power went out for five hours on Friday, and then the internet stayed off for most of Saturday. No snow here. Go figure!
I'll add that comcast is as bad as everyone says. We spent over 24 hrs on the phone repeatedly with their techs, who ultimately told us we would have to cough-up $220.00 to get our TV and internets back on. We balked, told them NO, and then it was fixed for no extra charge when our daughter spent an hour on the phone with them on Saturday. They didn't have to come out here, nor climb a pole...it was all done remotely, but some of the so-called techs don't know what they are doing. Getting service from them is a crap-shoot. My two cents.


Document your facts. See if you can get a comcast manager's actual name btw.

Then send copies to all of your state level Public Service Commisioners, with copies sent to every newspaper in the state.

Yep, it will take some time, but if you make lots of noise, you might get some results.
Quoting 1242. wartsttocs:



Here you go, although it looks like the big guy is offshore for now:


Wednesday is looking like a good day to zone in on more details to what that storm does.
Quoting 1245. MontanaZephyr:



Document your facts. See if you can get a comcast manager's actual name btw.

Then send copies to all of your state level Public Service Commisioners, with copies sent to every newspaper in the state.

Yep, it will take some time, but if you make lots of noise, you might get some results.
or get a disconnect for good one way or another
A link to The skinny on the earthquake near Iliamna (AK) from USGS

Dakster,
Glad your family is okay in Eagle River. A few years after the 1964 quake, a couple of my friends were horrified I chose to live in the Turnagain neighborhood, as many of the Anchorage deaths were related to 2-3 blocks of the neighborhood sliding into the inlet.
SAR, fyi.
Many old homes in Anchorage survived 1964. Even log cabins in the downtown area survived the quake. Home building codes may have changed, as they have all places. The code changes may have been more drastic for commercial buildings like the new "skyscraper" BP built in downtown Anchorage a few years later - during the oil boom. I'd put my 1959ish Turnagain home up against some of the Anchorage condos and homes built in the 1970s-80s, also during the oil boom.
Also, HurricaneHunterJoe,
There's lots of basement homes in Alaska and in Anchorage - full basements and the more common split entry/daylight basement type. What you describe may have been the stairwell in a daylight basement home. Must've been kind scary at the age of eight.
........

An earthquake like the one in 1964 in or near Anchorage today... I hate to think. The area population has increased four-fold since I lived there. Not only increased in Anchorage but on the Kenai. The quake early this morning (AK time) looks like it was kind of in the neighborhood of Mount St. Augustine, aka Augustine Volcano - an active volcano. That's my 2cents on earthquakes... except... Earthquakes are far less fearsome than EF4s-5s.

(Ps. Running outside is probably not the best thing during an earthquake.)

(edit for clarity)
I argued with my cable and net provider once rogers cable they fix it right up showed up and disconnected the service said they no longer needed me as a customer so I then went to bell for all services phone sat tv and internet
Quoting 1230. hydrus:

A lot of this will come down to timing of the Milankovitch Cycles. Not to mention the unknowns that may occur with or without our knowing...


The insolation increase as a result of addition GHGs far exceeds that of Milankovitch cycles. This is demonstrated by the fact that the globe was cooling until we started pumping gigatons of GHGs into the atmosphere. We've thrown the system out of whack.

Any large scale cooling would require all the additional accumulated and accumulating energy to either be moved or dissipated. There is no physical phenomena that I'm aware of capable of moving that amount of energy in the Earth's system out of the northern hemisphere, let alone dissipate it through an ever thickening blanket of GHGs.

Thermodynamics. You want something to consistently cool off, you have to have a mechanism to get rid of the heat. So for the NH to get cooler, you need a mechanism to offset the increase in insolation caused by increased GHGs, plus an additional amount that will start chunking away at the stored heat already in the oceans.

Do you have a model in mind that explains what physical mechanism(s) you think would allow for NH cooling in a warming world? Sure, there will be regions that on average might get cooler but I don't see a plausible physical mechanism for cooling the entire hemisphere.
Quoting 1233. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

everyone will get their turn before its done then march well lets get feb out of the way first then I will tell ya about march


Here on the Gulf Coast patiently waiting on our turn... sighhhhhh. Would love for the kids to see what I saw in '93

1252. Dakster
Quoting 1248. Barefootontherocks:

A link to The skinny on the earthquake near Iliamna (AK) from USGS

Dakster,
Glad your family is okay in Eagle River. A few years after the 1964 quake, a couple of my friends were horrified I chose to live in the Turnagain neighborhood, as many of the Anchorage deaths were related to 2-3 blocks of the neighborhood sliding into the inlet.
SAR, fyi.
Many old homes in Anchorage survived 1964. Even log cabins in the downtown area survived the quake. Home building codes may have changed, as they have all places. The code changes may have been more drastic for commercial buildings like the new "skyscraper" BP built in downtown Anchorage a few years later - during the oil boom. I'd put my 1959ish Turnagain home up against some of the Anchorage condos and homes built in the 1970s-80s, also during the oil boom.
Also, HurricaneHunterJoe,
There's lots of basement homes in Alaska and in Anchorage - full basements and the more common split entry/daylight basement type. What you describe may have been the stairwell in a daylight basement home. Must've been kind scary at the age of eight.
........

An earthquake like the one in 1964 in or near Anchorage today... I hate to think. The area population has increased four-fold since I lived there. Not only increased in Anchorage but on the Kenai. The quake early this morning (AK time) looks like it was kind of in the neighborhood of Mount St. Augustine, aka Augustine Volcano - an active volcano. That's my 2cents on earthquakes... except... Earthquakes are far less fearsome than EF4s-5s.

(Ps. Running outside is probably not the best thing during an earthquake.)

(edit for clarity)


I don't really know where and what is safe if everything around you is falling down... The normal run to the basement (or daylight basement) probably isn't the best either as the house could collapse on top of you.

Strong doorway away from falling things is probably the best. Looking at houses close to turnagain arm, only because it's close to where everything we need to do is. Making me think that EQ insurance as expensive and as horrible the coverage (25% deductible) is, might be required for my piece of mind.

My ER house has that split level plan and I hate it. I don't mind a daylight basement, but I want to walk into the house and be on ONE floor, not a landing where you have a small space that you have to choose up or down... And the answer of building a large staircase and deck isn't much better.
Above freezing temperature making it close to the geographic north pole in the middle of northern hemisphere winter:

Im snooooo jealous. Nothing but rain here in w. Wash state. 6.7" for jan. My folks just returned from a trip to NOLA, really enjoyed the food, friendly people and never ending music. My dad left their camera on a park bench so they didnt have many pictures to share, but they still seemed more animated about this trip than any other since going to Scotland 20 years ago. Thanks for showing them a good time. BTW they did get to go on a riverboat ride on the nearly flooding mississippi.
Not a cloud in the sky and the temperature in the backyard is around 33 degrees. One of the dogs has been outside getting some sun on a bare spot where ice has "supposedly melted" for about thirty minutes. He just refuses to come inside.
1256. hydrus
Quoting 1250. Xyrus2000:



The insolation increase as a result of addition GHGs far exceeds that of Milankovitch cycles. This is demonstrated by the fact that the globe was cooling until we started pumping gigatons of GHGs into the atmosphere. We've thrown the system out of whack.

Any large scale cooling would require all the additional accumulated and accumulating energy to either be moved or dissipated. There is no physical phenomena that I'm aware of capable of moving that amount of energy in the Earth's system out of the northern hemisphere, let alone dissipate it through an ever thickening blanket of GHGs.

Thermodynamics. You want something to consistently cool off, you have to have a mechanism to get rid of the heat. So for the NH to get cooler, you need a mechanism to offset the increase in insolation caused by increased GHGs, plus an additional amount that will start chunking away at the stored heat already in the oceans.

Do you have a model in mind that explains what physical mechanism(s) you think would allow for NH cooling in a warming world? Sure, there will be regions that on average might get cooler but I don't see a plausible physical mechanism for cooling the entire hemisphere.
Good morning Xyrus. Oceans cover 71% of the Earths surface, and hold 97% of the water. The worlds oceans have far more influence on global weather patterns than the C02 level contained in the atmosphere. Oceans do, and likely always have had, a stabilizing affect on global weather patterns, as well as a destabilizing affect. Co2's long term implications are still not well understood, while the oceans affect on climate is not only understood, but can cause rapid and far reaching changes in weather systems. Jonas is a good example, had the water in the region been cold, the snowfall total would have likely been significantly less. Ocean currents also transfer much more energy by volume than air. So any large and rather sudden changes in ocean currents ( Gulf Stream ) could cause a substantial shift in hemispheric weather patterns...jmo
1257. BayFog
Quoting 1224. hydrus:

The Deccan Traps were active 65 million years ago too, so there demise was twofold.

The Deccan Traps hotspot was antipodal to the meteor strike, so I'm inclined to think there was a direct connection.
Hi there, how's the snow?
A scientific article (not new) Link (pdf) about sea level change in the North Atlantic. "Dynamic sea level changes following changes in the thermohaline circulation" Rahmstorf et al. , Potsdam U. (Germany), Madrid U. (Spain). Maybe a good Sunday read, who knows.
---
Stable Anthropocene (from -6000 AD until nowadays) will be over as soon as it is officially designated by the scientific community as a "legitimate" geological period. End of the Anthropocene would make for a very special cake layer for (optional) future geologists. Probably full of combustion products, radioactive sand mixed with multicolored plastic; and of course the many remains of ancient pottery underneath.
1259. Patrap
#1234

Im glad they had WUnderful time here as we enjoy our visitor's as much as our neighbors.


I have 2 guest rooms open for the week of Mardi Gras which is Tuesday, Feb 9th.

If one wants to visit and stay on the Parade route itself, we are your destination.



Quoting 1221. Neapolitan:

Dinosaurs roamed the planet for about 165 million years until a massive meteorite killed off the last of them. We modern humans, on the other hand, have only been here about 200,000 years, and we've already managed to haul ourselves to the edge of the precipice. The only way we're "special" is that we're the only species that's ever been able threaten not just our own existence, but the existence of countless others.

Yay, us.

P.S. -- No "ice age" will get us out of this. At least not for, say, 100,000 years or so.

Well, I hate to say it, but we're not even special in those aspects. Plants changed the global atmosphere when they evolved, and invasive species without predators often grow in population until their resources are depleted. People are changing the environment very FAST, though, and it looks like a wild ride ahead for us. It's not just the weather that we're changing, either- we're also living an experiment in which we are exposed to thousands of chemicals we never evolved with, in air, water, cosmetics, etc. One possible result is human male fertility in developed and developing countries is dropping fast, thought to be due to endocrine disrupting chemicals or obesity.

Hydrus- I thought that the min-ice age in 1500's Europe was due to a slowing of the Gulf Stream, but the effect wasn't seen throughout the northern hemisphere?
1261. hydrus
Quoting 1257. BayFog:


The Deccan Traps hotspot was antipodal to the meteor strike, so I'm inclined to think there was a direct connection.
Maybe..Basic physics lean in that direction...Greetings..:)
1262. LargoFl
Quoting 1229. 7000ppm:



Actually, putting aside the cruelty of the preventable, premeditated murder of millions of people, your claim is false: according to the fossil record, the metabolism of most primates, including homo sapiens, has a very low tolerance for CO2 - we "adapt" to high CO2 levels by dying out.

In fact human tolerance is even worse than that: higher brain functions already suffer measurably at 600 ppm - this is one of the reasons why many industrial nations already regulate the maximum acceptable levels of CO2 to 1000-2000 ppm in office buildings and other work environments.

You need to stop the poisoning of our only home planet with CO2 and misinformation.
ok, so how many CO2 eating tree's have you yourself planted?..have you sold of your car?..etc etc..its easy it sit there and complain..but what exactly Have you Yourselff, done to make things better CO2 wise?...and that goes for everyone on earth..my guess is...the single person?, not many..ive planted 6 tree's...my city has become a "tree City" planting everywhere..and protecting the ones they have already..its very easy to sit here and complain,. very easy to quote some scientific article or chart.....do you see what I'm getting at?..no attack meant at all...what ARE the individuals doing themselves here..to prevent or at least Try to ease this supposed CO2 crisis?
Quoting 1156. sar2401:

It was that long. There's a famous recording that was being done during the quake that was played for our geology class. It went on for almost three and a half minutes. I had to leave the classroom. I couldn't listen to the whole thing. Then I got pulled into rescue work on the Cypress Structure in Loma Prieta quake. Man, it was terrible...


1989 Centered near Santa Cruz?
1264. LargoFl
1265. hydrus
Quoting 1260. annabatic:


Well, I hate to say it, but we're not even special in those aspects. Plants changed the global atmosphere when they evolved, and invasive species without predators often grow in population until their resources are depleted. People are changing the environment very FAST, though, and it looks like a wild ride ahead for us. It's not just the weather that we're changing, either- we're also living an experiment in which we are exposed to thousands of chemicals we never evolved with, in air, water, cosmetics, etc. One possible result is human male fertility in developed and developing countries is dropping fast, thought to be due to endocrine disrupting chemicals or obesity.

Hydrus- I thought that the min-ice age in 1500's Europe was due to a slowing of the Gulf Stream, but the effect wasn't seen throughout the northern hemisphere?
There were no measurements until the 1700,s. Weather obs in the N.H. were sparse at best. Any data that can be retrieved through samples is likely compromised by more recent changes in climate..jmo
Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston 16m16 minutes ago
White House CoCoRaHS reported 21.9". Need @POTUS to step in & make this official for DC

Storm for Friday still needs to be watched as 50 miles could make a big difference.Still 6 days out.
1267. Patrap
Quoting 1223. hydrus:

Good morning Nea..This will be an abbreviated post, but I wanted to hit on this topic. The Gulf Stream has changed so fast, that there is a real possibility of a cold shift in the Northern Hemisphere. I am not saying that the climate will not continue to warm, but I have started putting together evidence that the weather and currents in the north may take a drastic turn to colder conditions, even as the globe as a whole increases in temperature. Some will think I,m crazy...I,m not.

The only mechanism has been the overreaching forcing is the adding of CO2 into the Biosphere for 200years.

The CO2 accumulation and warming is not going to disappear anytime soon, so If you can publish, I'll most certainly link it to Hades and back and make it my Blog entry for a decade here.

Good Luck.
1268. Patrap
Quoting 1262. LargoFl:

ok, so how many CO2 eating tree's have you yourself planted?..have you sold of your car?..etc etc..its easy it sit there and complain..but what exactly Have you Yourselff, done to make things better CO2 wise?...and that goes for everyone on earth..my guess is...the single person?, not many..ive planted 6 tree's...my city has become a "tree City" planting everywhere..and protecting the ones they have already..its very easy to sit here and complain,. very easy to quote some scientific article or chart.....do you see what I'm getting at?..no attack meant at all...what ARE the individuals doing themselves here..to prevent or at least Try to ease this supposed CO2 crisis?



Trees are not the answer to AGW, and anyone who believes that is sipping something cherry flavored.

Quoting 1260. annabatic:


Well, I hate to say it, but we're not even special in those aspects. Plants changed the global atmosphere when they evolved, and invasive species without predators often grow in population until their resources are depleted. People are changing the environment very FAST, though, and it looks like a wild ride ahead for us. It's not just the weather that we're changing, either- we're also living an experiment in which we are exposed to thousands of chemicals we never evolved with, in air, water, cosmetics, etc. One possible result is human male fertility in developed and developing countries is dropping fast, thought to be due to endocrine disrupting chemicals or obesity.

Hydrus- I thought that the min-ice age in 1500's Europe was due to a slowing of the Gulf Stream, but the effect wasn't seen throughout the northern hemisphere?


I wouldn't want to be living in the US, what with the increase in vector borne diseases, such as Lyme, dengue, chikungunya and Zika, that will accompany the warming. I'm convinced that many undiagnosed 'chronic fatigue' diseases may be Lyme, and known cases are just the tip of the iceberg. I'm also convinced it's contagious, despite what the experts say. Too many whole families come down with it for it not to be so.

The Little Ice Age is believed to have been caused by reduced solar activity.
1270. 1Zach1
Quoting 1264. LargoFl:


Oh....
1271. Patrap
to prevent or at least Try to ease this supposed CO2 crisis?


Supposed ?

Look, that GOP Heartland meme thing you always pull out here has no legs, wings, nor feet for gaining ANY traction.

We deal in Science here, and that, is how we roll.

Quoting 1181. Skyepony:

UPTON, NY
M27.6 INCH BRONX ZOO
M30.5 INCH QUEENS
M26.8 INCH NEW YORK PARK
M23.0 INCH SUFFOLK
M29.6 INCH NASSAU
M27.5 INCH UNION NJ
M15.5 INCH NEW HAVEN CT



All in all, That was a VERY IMPRESSIVE storm system. El Nino is bad to the bone!
Quoting 1272. HurricaneHunterJoe:



All in all, That was a VERY IMPRESSIVE storm system. El Nino is bad to the bone!


Changes to the jet stream due to Arctic warming is much badder.
Quoting 1256. hydrus:

Good morning Xyrus. Oceans cover 71% of the Earths surface, and hold 97% of the water. The worlds oceans have far more influence on global weather patterns than the C02 level contained in the atmosphere. Oceans do, and likely always have had, a stabilizing affect on global weather patterns, as well as a destabilizing affect. Co2's long term implications are still not well understood, while the oceans affect on climate is not only understood, but can cause rapid and far reaching changes in weather systems. Jonas is a good example, had the water in the region been cold, the snowfall total would have likely been significantly less. Ocean currents also transfer much more energy by volume than air. So any large and rather sudden changes in ocean currents ( Gulf Stream ) could cause a substantial shift in hemispheric weather patterns...jmo
At least someone has a clue.
Quoting 1262. LargoFl:

ok, so how many CO2 eating tree's have you yourself planted?..have you sold of your car?..etc etc..its easy it sit there and complain..but what exactly Have you Yourselff, done to make things better CO2 wise?...and that goes for everyone on earth..my guess is...the single person?, not many..ive planted 6 tree's...my city has become a "tree City" planting everywhere..and protecting the ones they have already..its very easy to sit here and complain,. very easy to quote some scientific article or chart.....do you see what I'm getting at?..no attack meant at all...what ARE the individuals doing themselves here..to prevent or at least Try to ease this supposed CO2 crisis?
I got rid of the van in 2005 right after Katrina and have not had or drove one since I now go by public transport or cab it or walk which ever has to be done
1276. Patrap
"It's Sandy all over again for some people." Jason Pellegrini on coastal #flooding Sea Isle City #NJwx @CNN





Imagine what this Jonas tidal flooding will be in 20 more years, in 50, in 100.
1277. ChiThom
Quoting 1245. MontanaZephyr:



Document your facts. See if you can get a comcast manager's actual name btw.

Then send copies to all of your state level Public Service Commisioners, with copies sent to every newspaper in the state.

Yep, it will take some time, but if you make lots of noise, you might get some results.

We're very good at fighting the powers... and we usually win. With volumes of mail to everyone, including the Illinois Commerce Commission, etc. they cry "uncle" and back down. But it's too much work to go through every year. Comcast has a monopoly on high speed internet where we live, so we can't just change carriers. Oh well. :-(
Quoting 1276. Patrap:

"It's Sandy all over again for some people." Jason Pellegrini on coastal #flooding Sea Isle City #NJwx @CNN





Imagine what this Jonas tidal flooding will be in 20 more years, in 50, in 100.
time for a relocation this will happen now every time there is a strong coastal storm and get higher and higher each time
Quoting 1275. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I got rid of the van in 2005 right after Katrina and have not had or drove one since I now go by public transport or cab it or walk which ever has to be done
Must be nice Keeper to live in a city with good mas transit, but where I live the mass transit s@#ks, and I still need my truck to pull the boat, which I try to use at least once per week.
Quoting 1279. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

time for a relocation this will happen now every time there is a strong coastal storm and get higher and higher each time
Why will it be higher, is the land sinking in that area, also it has flooded before in the near past.
Quoting 1232. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well get ready more is coming and again after that in fact the entire month of February may go down as the snow month from hell




Just looked at the 12Z GFS and yikes! 5-6 Snowstorms Northeast and Nor Cal/Sierra's keep getting pounded with Soo Cal getting a few light/moderate systems. The first 2 weeks of Feb looking very busy.
1283. hydrus
Quoting 1267. Patrap:

Howdy Pat...About 2 weeks ago, I typed a comment here on the blog that stated C02 levels could reach 500 ppm by the year 2030...
Quoting 1280. NativeSun:

Must be nice Keeper to live in a city with good mas transit, but where I live the mass transit s@#ks, and I still need my truck to pull the boat, which I try to use at least once per week.
my job limits my travel I have to be here all the time unless I have someone relive me of my post so to be honest it was kinda a waste of money to have it parked on the property but not able to use it so I got rid of it to save on money and use public transport or cab for my needs the wife does all the errand running anyway and she don't have a permit too drive
Quoting 1248. Barefootontherocks:

A link to The skinny on the earthquake near Iliamna (AK) from USGS

Dakster,
Glad your family is okay in Eagle River. A few years after the 1964 quake, a couple of my friends were horrified I chose to live in the Turnagain neighborhood, as many of the Anchorage deaths were related to 2-3 blocks of the neighborhood sliding into the inlet.
SAR, fyi.
Many old homes in Anchorage survived 1964. Even log cabins in the downtown area survived the quake. Home building codes may have changed, as they have all places. The code changes may have been more drastic for commercial buildings like the new "skyscraper" BP built in downtown Anchorage a few years later - during the oil boom. I'd put my 1959ish Turnagain home up against some of the Anchorage condos and homes built in the 1970s-80s, also during the oil boom.
Also, HurricaneHunterJoe,
There's lots of basement homes in Alaska and in Anchorage - full basements and the more common split entry/daylight basement type. What you describe may have been the stairwell in a daylight basement home. Must've been kind scary at the age of eight.
........

An earthquake like the one in 1964 in or near Anchorage today... I hate to think. The area population has increased four-fold since I lived there. Not only increased in Anchorage but on the Kenai. The quake early this morning (AK time) looks like it was kind of in the neighborhood of Mount St. Augustine, aka Augustine Volcano - an active volcano. That's my 2cents on earthquakes... except... Earthquakes are far less fearsome than EF4s-5s.

(Ps. Running outside is probably not the best thing during an earthquake.)

(edit for clarity)


Strong tornado at night unannounced has to be the worst.
Quoting 1281. NativeSun:

Why will it be higher, is the land sinking in that area, also it has flooded before in the near past.
sea level rise will continue too increase causing storm surges to do the same
Quoting 1286. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

sea level rise will continue too increase causing storm surges to do the same


Dr. Larry Atkinson has a cool blog on the subject right here on WU. Link
It includes links to all sorts of fun stuff.
1288. Patrap
.."to increase"

Quoting 1269. yonzabam:



I wouldn't want to be living in the US, what with the increase in vector borne diseases, such as Lyme, dengue, chikungunya and Zika, that will accompany the warming. I'm convinced that many undiagnosed 'chronic fatigue' diseases may be Lyme, and known cases are just the tip of the iceberg. I'm also convinced it's contagious, despite what the experts say. Too many whole families come down with it for it not to be so.

The Little Ice Age is believed to have been caused by reduced solar activity.


Lyme carriers are not sensitive to cold and it's one disease that will increase only modestly with massive warming as the active season for ticks gets a little longer. BTW I've had it but it was caught in the rash stage. So have both sons and one of my dogs, none the same year.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1291. vis0

Quoting 1214. LargoFl:

we don't know what the future holds,we can surely guess, but one thing we must remember, unlike the Dinosaurs and other species that have vanished, Humans are special in a way,Man has learned how to adapt to changes in the weather,if the earth warms too much man will adapt,if the earth cools and an ice age comes, man will adapt..yes many could perish but there will be humans who survive.somewhere to renew the species..its what seperates us from the animal kingdom..we can adapt.
Would luv to think that but remember the animals that disappear quickly (before mainly to natural causes or death before they could reproduce as from man's overkill to comets) lose the ability to store within Earth (complex planet) their DNA to have an opportunity to "return" in due time.
 Maybe  it is why you see some animals thought to be instinct reappear cause they "disappeared" slowly. 
This warming is so fast, what if some virus mutates and attacks humans like a cold. It'll ruin the odds of coming back after all humans perish.

Now in my weird mind i can see what you say happening but by either relocating physically to another planet or "soul-spiritly" relocating, - here the nutty part - via what i call human's "clear DNA" (not discovered just my theory) as the light energy / resonance the creates our soul to spirit link  might triangulate its "being" to another complex planet.
Yet in both cases humans have to start all over again and maybe even compete with other being on those planets...not to mention if it hard just locating a planet that can support some type of life, now find the "Goldilocks planet", the one that is juussst right.

OR

Clean up our mess, then watch what a big heart nature (physics) & gawd (galacsics) has that after we clean up OUR mess it will maintain Earth nice and balanced TILL DOOM! (sun expand, moon knocked out of orbit, humans create another dilemma, Dodgers move back to Brooklyn, your fav sitcom is cancelled etc.

Analogy time (bring up the analogy music, no washi115 not the circus music):

You live in the perfect home, family of four plus two pets.  Home has 4 bathrooms, 4 bedrooms and 2 pet houses and garage.

The family as a whole begins to leave the house in a mess mildew grows, not painting house regularly so paint is peeling, toilet has ring around the collar, tiles cracking. Family is told by Bob Villa if you do not take care of this old house you will loose it in 3 yrs from termite and mildew growth.

3 years later house crumbles due to straight line winds.

Now sure that family MIGHT find another house just as beautiful oh lets say in Washington that even has the fragrance of ...mmmmm... freshly made  tacos and portraits of snow, just snow no one in portraits but pictures framed of snow all over that house, but its going to be difficult to move in since washi115 keeps passing by at 3AM which scares the jelly beans out of that family.

OR

Take care of the nice home and when the time comes do emergency repairs and once the family moves on willingly sell it to Taz at 10 times the price.

i hope LargoFl is correct but what a long painful unnecessary route to take to get to what already could be heaven...cue the Belinda Carlisle  tune NO! not the left foot out and shake it all about ...tune, Hydrus.



THE SUSPENSE to find out the snow total tallies is killing me where is webber ???
1292. vis0
...oh there they are just before my ;last comment great timing??!
1293. MahFL
Lake Shasta, CA went up 3 % yesterday.

45% of Total Capacity
68% of Historical Avg. For This Date

Quoting 1216. Neapolitan:

1) The ice isn't "supposedly" melting any more than the earth is "supposedly" spherical;

2) Whether or not the Gulf Stream is shut down by an overwhelming influx of cold, low-saline water, "life-changing" things are in man's future. In fact, they're in our present. (See: Winter Storm Jonas)
Quoting 1282. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Just looked at the 12Z GFS and yikes! 5-6 Snowstorms Northeast and Nor Cal/Sierra's keep getting pounded with Soo Cal getting a few light/moderate systems. The first 2 weeks of Feb looking very busy.


The GFS goes out to Feb 6 or so. For a two week midwinter run it doesn't look that ominous to me.
Northeasters do happen after all it's climatology, not apocolypse.
Quoting 1219. win1gamegiantsplease:



Good to hear. I guess you guys in AK are somewhat used to them, how often does a 7 mw occur?

And I'm with sar, I think CA and the like is beautiful, but I'll take living where a major cane could hit head on over worrying about the "big one," especially in the Cascades.


I just finished reading a book called "The Next Tsunami" by Bonnie Henderson. The book follows the story of various geologists and how they "discovered" the Cascadia subduction zone, and then their uncovering the PNW history of major tsunamis. It's both fascinating and frightening that it wasn't until the late 1980's that anyone really began to understand what is capable of happening here. Which, given the time it took to convince the local politicians, means that only buildings built after roughly 1995 are built with any significant seismic standards at all. When (not if) the earthquake hits, they expect over 1000 masonry buildings in Seattle to completely collapse. That's only Seattle, Portland OR is far worse off...
1296. vis0

Quoting 1262. LargoFl:

ok, so how many CO2 eating tree's have you yourself planted?..have you sold of your car?..etc etc..its easy it sit there and complain..but what exactly Have you Yourselff, done to make things better CO2 wise?...and that goes for everyone on earth..my guess is...the single person?, not many..ive planted 6 tree's...my city has become a "tree City" planting everywhere..and protecting the ones they have already..its very easy to sit here and complain,. very easy to quote some scientific article or chart.....do you see what I'm getting at?..no attack meant at all...what ARE the individuals doing themselves here..to prevent or at least Try to ease this supposed CO2 crisis?
i've planted over 300 bushes over 150 trees and never got a cookie, just 2 broken wisdom teeth from old dead trees we replaced, being cut down and no one yelling timber! before the trees hit my face. (was for 2 "green groups" and NY Cares.  BTW its why i use NYC for NY CARES and NYc for the city. To add insult to injury i was sent a bill by Mama Nana for what was called "face lifts / beautifying my face" due to the tree hitting my face.

GOTTA GO READ THE NEXT Dr. Masters/Mr. Henson BLOGBYTE (see msg#1290 on THIS pg.) i hear its great reading