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Historic January Drought Intensifies in California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:31 PM GMT on January 16, 2014

Record warmth and dryness have hit California this month, as one of the worst drought in state history continues to intensify. San Francisco Airport observed its warmest January day on record on Wednesday: 73°. This beat the previous all-time January record of 72° set twice before (on January 13, 2009 and January 24, 1948). Oakland hit 77° on Wednesday, and Monterey topped out at a remarkable 83°--which would be a daily record on many summer days. The record January heat has been accompanied by record dryness. California recorded its driest year in its history during 2013. The most widely used measure of drought in the U.S., the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), shows that December 2013 drought conditions in California were the 2nd most intense for any December going back to 1895, with only December 1898 being worse. If we look at 3-month PDSI for the first three months of the water year, October - December, 2013 ranks as the third worst such drought, behind 1898 and 2008.


Figure 1. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), shows that December 2013 drought conditions in California were the 2nd most intense for any December going back to 1895. Only December 1899 was worse. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

The forecast: no relief in sight
Less than an inch of precipitation has fallen over more than 95% of the state so far in January 2014, and the prospects for significant rain for the next ten days look bleak. A large and persistent ridge of high pressure has set up over the West Coast and shows no signs of budging. Since rain-bearing low pressure system tend to travel along the axis of the jet stream, these storms are being carried well to the north of California into Southeast Alaska, leaving California exceptionally dry. Today's U.S. Drought Monitor showed that the area of California experiencing extreme drought expanded from 28% to 63% over the past week, and I expect January 2014 drought conditions will challenge 1899 for the dubious honor of worst January drought in state history.


Figure 2. Color-coded wind speeds at a pressure of 300 mb (roughly 9,000 meters or 30,000 feet) from 00 UTC January 16, 2014, show the axis of the jet stream over North America, with a large upside-down "U"-shaped ridge of high pressure over the West Coast. California is outlined in orange. The strongest winds of the jet stream (orange colors, 160 mph) were observed over the Northeast United States. Image generated from the 00 UTC January 16, 2014 run of the GFS model, and plotted using our wundermap.

Top ten most severe winter drought months in California history, 1895 - 2013, along with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the month:

1) Feb 1899, -6.28
2) Feb 1991, -6.21
3) Jan 1991, -5.74
4) Jan 1899, -5.67
5) Feb 1977, -5.62
6) Dec 1898, -6.28
7) Jan 2009, -5.26
8) Jan 1977, -4.82
9) Dec 2013, -4.67
10) Feb 2009, -4.49

Our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has much more detail on this historic drought in his latest post, Central California Enters a Drought Period Unprecedented in its Weather History.

Jeff Masters

Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 462. nonblanche:
A few comments on English vs. Metric:

I remember the push (Carter Administration?) for kids to be taught metric along with English. The thinking was to give kids in the US a chance to acclimate so we could better compete in science with the rest of the world. It was a planned gradual change, with some point in the future being when the transition would be complete.

Problems: Nobody wanted to make the switch. Construction? English makes more sense.
Food/drink? English is more compatible with the human body's capacity.

Temperature? I can rough-guess the equivalents, largely because I have friends in ZA and Australia, and we offer each other our extreme temps 'round our respective solstices. (That's I know 116*F is in the mid 40's*C, Nerine in Capetown was shivering while we were huddled around the swamp cooler.)

I can add through personal experience (I've been a butcher *and* a baker, and currently raise and milk goats) that English weights are very organic - a half pound of meat is pretty close to the size of an average human fist. A half pint of beer is as much as the average human adult can drink without feeling the effects. Standards of milk production are measured in pounds (before they reach the store in gallon measures) and in food prep, we have quarts, pints, cups, and a cup is neatly broken down into ounces or tablespoons (two tablespoons to a fluid or volume ounce) so scaling up or down simply means knowing how to split numbers or measures in half or doubling or tripling, and not using a calculator to figure out grams and such.


I was taught metric units as well as British Engineering ones starting in 1965 in first grade in both public and private schools in Northern VA. Almost all of my science calculations were in metric units so I knew both systems.

BTW if you could substitute Imperial gallons for standard ones at the gas pump without changing the price I'd be a little happier :-)
Quoting 501. georgevandenberghe:


I was taught metric units as well as British Engineering ones starting in 1965 in first grade in both public and private schools in Northern VA. Almost all of my science calculations were in metric units so I knew both systems.

BTW if you could substitute Imperial gallons for standard ones at the gas pump without changing the price I'd be a little happier :-)


Let me know where that happens so I can fill up too.
Curious about the Florida conservation measure up for a ballot. It needs 60% to vote for it to pass. If 5 million Floridians vote and 2.9 million vote in favor and 2.1 million vote against the measure is defeated. Why?

Florida conservation amendment headed to ballot
Quoting 489. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nice little dry but nice here have a little aveeno


Got a bottle on the left of my desk and one under my sink for backup.
Just part of the West Coast survival kit....
New all time Australian heat records set this year. From the Extreme temperatures around the world site.

Tambo (Australia) max. 44.5
Windorah (Australia) max. 48
Applethorpe (Australia) max. 37.8
Goondiwindi (Australia) max. 46.4
Surat (Australia) max. 45.7
Quilpie Airport (Australia) max. 47.1
Collarenebri (Australia) max. 48
St George (Australia) max. 47.2
Blackall (Australia) max. 45.7
Roma (Australia) max. 45.8
Mungindi (Australia) max. 48
Walgett (Australia) max. 49.1
Moree (Australia) max. 47.3
Barraba (Australia) max. 44.9
Narrabri (Australia) max. 47.8
Tamworth Airport (Australia) max. 45.1
Glen Innes (Australia) max. 37
Armidale (Australia) max. 37.1
Inverell (Australia) max. 41.9
Guyra (Australia) max. 34.4
Murrurundi (Australia) max. 41.2
Mudgee (Australia) max. 42.5
Coonabarabran (Australia) max. 44
Dunedoo (Australia) max. 45
Taroom (Australia) max. 45.3
Gympie (Australia) max. 42.4
Archerfield (Australia) max. 43.5
Quoting 489. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
nice little dry but nice here have a little aveeno

Maybe an air tanker drop from a DC-10.
Quoting 494. hydrus:
They know it was a hurricane. Whether it was a bona fide hurricane when hitting Florida , who really knows..you make a very good point.


From WIKI..
On October 3, the first indications of a tropical system were observed 300 miles (480 km) to the north of the Virgin Islands. The next day, morning observations confirmed the presence of a circulation center, and on October 5 the storm tracked through the Bahamas and passed near Nassau. At the time, the storm was found to be a compact, well-developed hurricane. The hurricane's lowest recorded barometric pressure of 964 mb was reported on Cat Island.[2] The storm moved west-northwestward and attained peak winds of 120 miles per hour (190 km/h) on October 6;[3] that same day, it made landfall 13 miles (21 km) south of Miami, Florida.[4] Maintaining a small size, the hurricane moved through the Everglades, passing between Everglades City and Fort Myers.[4] Along the southern shore of Lake Okeechobee, winds gusted to 60 miles per hour (97 km/h); barometric pressure there fell to 995 mb.[2]

The storm entered the Gulf of Mexico and in a broad curve turned toward the northwest, tracking offshore along the west coast of Florida. It remained over open waters until the following day, when it made landfall at Carrabelle with a barometric pressure of 982 mb. Turning north and then northeast, the storm moved beyond Tallahassee and entered Georgia.[4] It weakened as it progressed inland, and after passing through South Carolina, the storm re-emerged into the Atlantic Ocean early on October 8. While over water, the storm re-intensified.[2] The cyclone was tracked for several more days as it moved toward the southeast, executed a small loop, and turned toward the east-northeast, passing south of Bermuda on the night of October 11/12.[2] The storm became extratropical on October 13, fully dissipating the next day.



Hmmm, well one possibility is that Florida had a very dry air mass prior to the landfall, and that the cyclone pulled in just enough of it to weaken much of its convection near landfall. After all, we know that it takes time for a storm to spin down in intensity, as well as the fact that it doesn't take much dry air to cause convection to collapse in a tropical cyclones unlike non-tropical systems because of how they function.

The fact that it mentions there were thunderstorms in the Keys is what also is a hint to me. Thunderstorms in a tropical cyclone can occur in the eyewall possibly indicating rapid deepening, but they can also occur when the atmosphere is less tropical. In other words, mid level cooling, usually due to evaporation from mid level drying. The very warm depth a tropical system, stretched updrafts, and a lack of surface instability from persistent precip is normally the reason for why lightning lacks in a hurricane or other tropical situations.


It also mentions it was small and compact which would made it more likely to see a significant and quickly impact from drier air.

Also, the fact that its October makes that bet a bit more likely. October can sometimes be still humid and stormy but sometimes it can be bone dry.
Quoting 508. Jedkins01:



Hmmm, well one possibility is that Florida had a very dry air mass prior to the landfall, and that the cyclone pulled in just enough of it to weaken much of its convection near landfall. After all, we know that it takes time for a storm to spin down in intensity, as well as the fact that it doesn't take much dry air to cause convection to collapse in a tropical cyclones unlike non-tropical systems because of how they function.

The fact that it mentions there were thunderstorms in the Keys is what also is a hint to me. Thunderstorms in a tropical cyclone can occur in the eyewall possibly indicating rapid deepening, but they can also occur when the atmosphere is less tropical. In other words, mid level cooling, usually due to evaporation from mid level drying. The very warm depth a tropical system, stretched updrafts, and a lack of surface instability from persistent precip is normally the reason for why lightning lacks in a hurricane or other tropical situations.


It also mentions it was small and compact which would made it more likely to see a significant and quickly impact from drier air.

Also, the fact that its October makes that bet a bit more likely. October can sometimes be still humid and stormy but sometimes it can be bone dry.
Yep, and more than once I have seen a tropical cyclone approaching Florida transition into a extra-tropical cyclone just before landfall. Others I have seen were sub-tropical in nature.
132 hours..
Quoting 504. BaltimoreBrian:
Curious about the Florida conservation measure up for a ballot. It needs 60% to vote for it to pass. If 5 million Floridians vote and 2.9 million vote in favor and 2.1 million vote against the measure is defeated. Why?

Florida conservation amendment headed to ballot


Its a long story. Also a certain percentage of people need to vote for it to count as well. In a nutshell, some politicians started putting agenda items on in-between elections and only people that supported it knew or cared enough about it to vote. So the 60% and percentage of eligible voters that need to vote was created to prevent it.

Basically, it's Florida, we haven't figured out voting yet.
Quoting 506. BaltimoreBrian:
New all time Australian heat records set this year. From the Extreme temperatures around the world site.

Tambo (Australia) max. 44.5
Windorah (Australia) max. 48
Applethorpe (Australia) max. 37.8
Goondiwindi (Australia) max. 46.4
Surat (Australia) max. 45.7
Quilpie Airport (Australia) max. 47.1
Collarenebri (Australia) max. 48
St George (Australia) max. 47.2
Blackall (Australia) max. 45.7
Roma (Australia) max. 45.8
Mungindi (Australia) max. 48
Walgett (Australia) max. 49.1
Moree (Australia) max. 47.3
Barraba (Australia) max. 44.9
Narrabri (Australia) max. 47.8
Tamworth Airport (Australia) max. 45.1
Glen Innes (Australia) max. 37
Armidale (Australia) max. 37.1
Inverell (Australia) max. 41.9
Guyra (Australia) max. 34.4
Murrurundi (Australia) max. 41.2
Mudgee (Australia) max. 42.5
Coonabarabran (Australia) max. 44
Dunedoo (Australia) max. 45
Taroom (Australia) max. 45.3
Gympie (Australia) max. 42.4
Archerfield (Australia) max. 43.5


I assume those are in C and not F.
Quoting 512. Dakster:
I assume those are in C and not F.

Yes
514. wxmod
Pacific low. Aerosol overlay. MODIS satellite image.

Quoting 512. Dakster:


I assume those are in C and not F.


if they were F that would be Florida.....
The Arctic air mass forecast to enter the U.S. shows well here..


Polar vort.?
517. flsky
Quoting 472. StormTrackerScott:


42 here NW of Orlando.

39 in Ponce Inlet
Time to Bail - Bundle up Florida - Stay Warm - Watch out for Icebergs.....

Beware, El Frio is coming...
Its 32 degrees and gusting to 40 outside..This was not in the forecast.
Quoting 518. PedleyCA:
Time to Bail - Bundle up Florida - Stay Warm - Watch out for Icebergs.....


Take Care Pedley. Stay out of the fires wrath. And get some Humidity will ya?

Quoting 518. PedleyCA:
Time to Bail - Bundle up Florida - Stay Warm - Watch out for Icebergs.....

Beware, El Frio is coming...
Why not.? Nino ditched, so a replacement was procured..:)
Thanks for explaining Dakster. Seems to me the simplest thing would be to require such referenda to be on the presidential election ballot to get maximum turnout and have a 50% pass requirement.
Quoting 519. hydrus:
Its 32 degrees and gusting to 40 outside..This was not in the forecast.


What was your forecast. It's in the 30s here and that wasn't really forecasted either. 30s was with windchill not actual temp.

Quoting 522. BaltimoreBrian:
Thanks for explaining Dakster. Seems to me the simplest thing would be to require such referenda to be on the presidential election ballot to get maximum turnout and have a 50% pass requirement.


You need to stop making sense... We don't do things that make sense here.

Although, then you are limited to passing things every 4 years instead of every year or at worst every 2 years for the mid-term elections.

We suffer from electile dysfunction and they haven't made any Viagara for it yet.
Quoting 512. Dakster:


I assume those are in C and not F.
highest one 118.04F
Quoting 525. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
highest one 118.04F


That's a winter day for Pedley...
The Adelaide Advertiser with numerous stories about the Australian heat wave.

And a more hopeful note
from Melbourne, Australia.
Quoting 523. Dakster:


What was your forecast. It's in the 30s here and that wasn't really forecasted either. 30s was with windchill not actual temp.

overnight-A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Southwest wind around 5 mph...they were only off by 35...no prob.
Walgett (Australia) max. 49.1

That's 120.38 F.

Quoting 525. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
highest one 118.04F


Thank god, because you know 118F is OK, but 118.04F is just way too hot.
Quoting 528. hydrus:
overnight-A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Southwest wind around 5 mph...they were only off by 35...no prob.


They were close on the temp part, just not the wind.

Was this TWC, Accuweather, Weather Nation, Navajo Nation?
Victoria Hills, DeLand, FL
Elevation
79 ft
Station Select
Now
ClearClear
Temperature
32.5 °F
Feels Like 32 °F

Places already freezing around here and we still have a good 8 hours of it.
Another Arctic air mass at 372..far out i know but the pattern is sticking a bit..
Quoting 531. Dakster:


They were close on the temp part, just not the wind.

Was this TWC, Accuweather, Weather Nation, Navajo Nation?
NWS.
Quoting 529. BaltimoreBrian:
Walgett (Australia) max. 49.1

That's 120.38 F.

I missed that one
the cold is of the chart..
If it wasn't of the chart, it'd be off the chart right? ;)
Quoting 538. BaltimoreBrian:
If it wasn't of the chart, it'd be off the chart right?
Greetings Brian. Every run gets a little worse for the U.S.
Quoting 539. hydrus:
Greetings Brian. Every run gets a little worse for the U.S.


Greetings hydrus. Will it be time to Party like it's 1899! ?
Quoting 509. hydrus:
Yep, and more than once I have seen a tropical cyclone approaching Florida transition into a extra-tropical cyclone just before landfall. Others I have seen were sub-tropical in nature.



That is certainly possible as well, it weakened a lot faster more than most hurricanes have that crossed south Florida, it also sounds like it didn't weaken very quickly after its second landfall, which may hint at hybridization and lessening tropical characteristics especially because its October.

Still a very odd storm regardless.
Quoting 540. BaltimoreBrian:


Party like it's 1899!
Old Man Winter is gonna party too....Like its 1899..:)
Quoting 541. BaltimoreBrian:
Bureau of Meteorology reveals first national heatwave definition

Seems a little late.


article was released Tuesday (their time).
Quoting 542. Jedkins01:



That is certainly possible as well, it weakened a lot faster more than most hurricanes have that crossed south Florida, it also sounds like it didn't weaken very quickly after its second landfall, which may hint at hybridization and lessening tropical characteristics.
Storms are weird...and I have seen them all over. Great Lakes, North Atlantic, Gulf. Even the Gulf of St.Lawrence.
Quoting 544. HadesGodWyvern:


article was released Tuesday (their time).


I saw that. I'm just surprised they didn't have a heat wave definition until January 14, 2014. Australia is no stranger to heat waves. I would have thought they had a definition for a heat wave decades ago.
A blessed night to all..zzz
might be a revised definition as they mentioned a new "Pilot Heatwave Forecast" product.
Quoting 536. hydrus:
the cold is of the chart..
very strong
Says this in the header:

For the first time, the Bureau of Meteorology has provided a national definition of a heatwave.


It's time for bed, I'll look through the Australian Bureau of Meteorology site tomorrow. Maybe.

It's just strange to me, as if Canada didn't have a definition for a cold wave. Maybe they don't!
just makes me wonder if India has a heatwave definition as well

40-45C is not uncommon over there.
Quoting 500. Dakster:


Bad Scott. That is taboo.. No calling for 2004 analogous seasons...

I can't handle another El Pendejo year of storms.

Maybe not 2004, but FL is gonna get one soon.
HadesGodWyvern, the definitions of heat wave and other hot weather phenomena from the India Meteorological Department is on pages 10-11 of their Glossary Page.


And of Course the only rain California is supposed to get is at 372 hours
96P.INVEST is now named June by RSMC Nadi

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE JUNE, CATEGORY ONE (08F)
16:00 PM FST January 17 2014
=====================================

At 4:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone June (995 hPa) located at 17.2S 162.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. Position poor based on multispectral infrared and visible imagery with peripheral surface reports. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 20 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
100 NM in northeast quadrant
60 NM in southeast quadrant
100 NM in southwest quadrant
60 NM in northwest quadrant

Overall organization has significantly improved in the past 24 hours. Deep convection around the low level circulation center remains persistent and its area has increased in the past 6 hours. System lies in a moderate sheared environment south of an upper ridge. Outflow restricted to the west but good elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. System is being steered to the south southeast by a northwest-southeast oriented ridge to the north of the system.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap yielding DT=3.0, MET=2.5, and PT=3.0. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24 HRS

Global models agree on a southeastward movement with little intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 19.5S 163.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 22.0S 164.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 27.6S 165.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
Quoting 500. Dakster:


Bad Scott. That is taboo.. No calling for 2004 analogous seasons...

I can't handle another El Pendejo year of storms.


I'll take a 2008. That way Florida gets spared and Louisiana gets all kinds of hurricanes and close calls that I can go to the coast and chase.

Sound good? 'Tis what I thought. ;)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE DELIWE (07-20132014)
10:00 AM RET January 17 2014
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Deliwe (992 hPa) located at 23.4S 42.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
30 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 70 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 25.0S 40.5E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS 24.8S 38.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS 24.0S 38.7E - Depression se Comblant
72 HRS 24.9S 37.5E - Depression se Comblant

Additional Information
========================

The microwave image GCOM at 2213z shows a embryo of eye, with a weakness of the deep convection close to the core of the system in the northeastern part affected by the shore at this time. Deliwe has gone away from the western coast of Madagascar at the end of the night. The current intensity is in good agreement with last ASCAT data of 0601z.

The available numerical guidance are in good agreement on the south southwestwards track forecast for the next 12 hours, under the steering influence of the highs in the east. Then during the night from Friday to Saturday, the track will recurve westwards as another subtropical highs will stall over southern Africa. From Saturday morning, there is poor agreement among guidance and there is lower confidence in the track forecast. The current track is close to the last outcomes of ECMWF (1800z and 0000z), but some numerical weather prediction guidance forecast a north northwestward track from Saturday morning.

Upper level environmental conditions appear neutral to favorable for further slight intensification within the next 12 hours. The northerly constraint will be partly offset by the fast south southwestward movement of the system, which take advantage of good upper divergence poleward. According to the current rate of deepening, it is possible that Deliwe will reach the stage of severe tropical storm in the very next hours. According to the forecast track from Saturday morning, the northerly constraint should increase and become a unfavorable. The system is also expected to weaken rapidly.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATON
10:30 AM PhST January 17 2014
================================================= ====

The Low Pressure Area southeast of Guiuan, eastern Samar has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "AGATON"

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Agaton (1000 hPa) located at 9.2N 127.2E or 260 km southeast of Guiuan, eastern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 2 knots.

Signal Warnings
=====================

Signal Warning #1

Mindanao region
------------------
1. Surigao del Norte
2. Siargao Is.
3. Surigao del Sur
4. Dinagat Province
5. Agusan del Norte
6. Agusan del Sur
7. Davao Oriental
8. Compostella Valley

Additional Information
============================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression "AGATON" will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over Eastern and Central Visayas.

Sea travel is risky over the seaboards of Luzon, Visayas and Caraga Region.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5pm today.


what a pest of a system.
560. VR46L
June Visual

561. VR46L
562. VR46L
BTW Good Morning
Almost 4am and its just 39 outside. Looks like no freeze here tonight. Infact all areas around Orlando are near 40 at the moment. Looks frosty though.

Link
Good Morning!..43 here,no frost or freeze here....
another cold front tomorrow for us................
It warmed up overnight here.
39F at 8:30PM, 50F now.
Good morning, and TGIF to all.

Still 64 here, according to the airport. Seems we had some cloud cover roll through that kept the lid on the temps. Still, that's chilly enough for sweater, so I am satisfied.

Have a great day!
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's a warmer 46 degrees with a high of 56 expected again. I LOVE Fridays of a three day weekend.

Saturday: Breakfast's on the sideboard: steak, eggs and hash browns, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, croissants, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, egg and sausage casserole, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Fort Myers here. 38 degrees on my station. Lowest temp in the area is currently 34 degrees in Lehigh. a few miles east of Ft. Myers.
33 degree further inland way outside the city.
Local news just showed
GLOBAL WARMING scrapped in the frost on a car windshield in North Ft. Myers.

It always seems to go in that direction. But frost is being reported all over the area.

Record low is 36 - we won't official come close to that at Page Field - closer to the river. Probably get down to 38-39 there.
573. VR46L
LOL !! @ 571


574. VR46L
The WV loop below shows the shield that has established itself over CA ...

Afternoon everyone, I got out of school early for once!
Quite a nice day today.
Quoting 574. VR46L:
The WV loop below shows the shield that has established itself over CA ...

Good morning VR. There has been strong low pressure areas moving into the Gulf of Alaska, this will usually cause a compensatory high pressure system somewhere to the East. There are a few signs that it may weaken a bit in 3 weeks. This is the set up now..


set up at 120 hours.

228 hours.
Quoting 574. VR46L:
The WV loop below shows the shield that has established itself over CA ...

Shows even better here.
Good Morning All..
Here's a little webcam peek of the beach this am..


579. VR46L
Quoting 577. hydrus:
Shows even better here.


Its not a good pattern setting up

CIRA Total Precipitable Water
Jan. 17, 2014 - 10:14 UTC

1/17/14 Cold morning for me!! got down to 34!

my car was covered in ice!!
ATL Swirly almost dead.

Cyclone June.



Quoting 578. pcola57:
Good Morning All..
Here's a little webcam peek of the beach this am..




Those clouds are particularly stunning!
94S



1/17/14 From Loxahatchee, Florida
Quoting 585. SFLWeatherman:
1/17/14 From Loxahatchee, Florida



Looks like a Volkswagon CC
vw passat GLX
Quoting 586. robintampabay:



Looks like a Volkswagon CC
IMAGE OF THE DAY:


A piece of history frozen in time beneath the waves has been documented in amazing photographs.

The SS Thistlegorm shipwreck, a British munitions ship sunk by a German bomber in 1941 off the coast of Egypt, lays undisturbed.

Now turned into a world-class diving site, the wreckage provides a fascinating insight into the past.




An old truck destined for use during WW2 at the SS Thistlegorm shipwreck, a British munitions ship sunk by a German bomber in 1941 off the coast of Egypt.

More photos.


Note... I like that name for a ship.. Too bad it sunk. :/
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 579. VR46L:


Its not a good pattern setting up

CIRA Total Precipitable Water
Jan. 17, 2014 - 10:14 UTC

Some records will fall..Again. I said yesterday morning that the pattern is loading for damaging winter storms. If the NAO were negative, we would have had at least one moderate snow storm for the east coast already. This little dip may make a big difference.


591. VR46L
Quoting 590. hydrus:
Some records will fall..Again. I said yesterday morning that the pattern is loading for damaging winter storms. If the NAO were negative, we would have had at least one moderate snow storm for the east coast already. This little dip may make a big difference.




Yes I saw you said that yesterday.... but the lack of precipitation will hinder any development

Nothing to speak of coming,