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Historic heat wave brings Australia its hottest average temperature on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:27 PM GMT on January 08, 2013

It's been a summer like no other in the history of Australia, where a sprawling heat wave of historical proportions is entering its second week. Monday, January 7, was the hottest day in Australian history, averaged over the entire country, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The high temperature averaged over Australia was 105°F (40.3°C), eclipsing the previous record of 104°F (40.2°C) set on 21 December 1972. Never before in 103 years of record keeping has a heat wave this intense, wide-spread, and long-lasting affected Australia. The nation's average high temperature exceeded 102°F (39°C) for five consecutive days January 2 - 6, 2013--the first time that has happened since record keeping began in 1910. Monday's temperatures extended that string by another day, to six. To put this remarkable streak in perspective, the previous record of four consecutive days with a national average high temperature in excess of 102°F (39°C) has occurred once only (1973), and only two other years have had three such days in a row--1972 and 2002 (thanks go to climate blogger Greg Laden for these stats.) Another brutally hot day is in store for Wednesday, as the high pressure region responsible for the heat wave, centered just south of the coast, will bring clear skies and a northerly flow of air over most of the country. A slight cool down will occur later in the week, as the high weakens and slides to the east of Australia. The western coast of Australia may see cloud cover and rain from Tropical Cyclone Narelle this weekend, but the rest of the country will see very little in the way of cloud cover or rain during the coming week.


Figure 1. Aerial view of fire at Copping/Forcett, Tasmania, at around 4pm on 4 Jan 2013, taken from an airplane leaving Hobart Airport. Image credit: Wikipedia.

As discussed by wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his Monday post, Australia's extreme heat helped fuel wild fires in southeastern Tasmania that burned to the ground at least 100 homes last Friday and Saturday. The temperature peaked in the state capital of Hobart at 41.8°C (107.2°F) on Friday, the hottest temperature on record for the city, and tied for the 2nd hottest temperature ever recorded in Tasmania (records go back to 1882). The 2013 Australian heat wave extends a period of unusual warmth for the country. The last four months of 2012 were the hottest such period on record, with an average Australian maximum temperature +1.61°C, just beating the previous record of 1.60°C set in 2002. The current heat wave has not yet set a record for all-time hottest temperature in Australian history, which remains the 50.7°C (123.3°F) reading on 2 January 1960 at Oodnadatta, South Australia.


Figure 2. Departure of high temperature from average (using a base period of 1961 - 1990) for the first six days of 2013. A large area of Australia has had high temperatures more than 6°C (11°F) higher than average. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Jeff Masters

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Meanwhile.

While it is another mild winter here where I am, it is cooler than it was last winter.

Heat Waves in Australia.

It is summer down there in the Southern Hemisphere, right?


Quoting TomballTXPride:


Heat Waves in Australia. It is summer down there in the Southern Hemisphere, right?




Yup, and these record highs are mainly in the outback.


Dr. Masters ~ How far back do the weather records go back in the Land Down Under??


Quoting TomballTXPride:


Dr. Masters ~ How far back do the weather records go back in the Land Down Under??



Read the blog post.
103 years.
mild.winter..e.cen.fl
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Heat Waves in Australia. It is summer down there in the Southern Hemisphere, right?




I wish you all the best for your coming summer.
Quoting vanwx:


I wish you all the best for your coming summer.

Think he'll have a cool one ?

:):))
Quoting pottery:

Read the blog post.
103 years.




Thanks, Pot.

How's Orca holding up??



Quoting vanwx:


I wish you all the best for your coming summer.




Thanks, vanwx.



Quoting pottery:

Think he'll have a cool one ?

:):))




Sure hope so!






But usually up north that time of year anyway so I miss the brunt of the withering blazing heat.



Quoting TomballTXPride:




Thanks, Pot.

How's Orca holding up??




Poor guy has Bronchitis.....
Quoting pottery:

Poor guy has Bronchitis.....




Ah, Damn. Wish him to get better for me.

:)



Quoting TomballTXPride:




Ah, Damn. Wish him to get better for me.

:)




Will do.

In the meantime it's a bright breezy morning here, after 1.5" of rain again yesterday.
12" in Dec. was about 3" above average, and so far Jan. is really wet.
We are at the start of dry-season, but last dryseason was pretty wet right through.
Hoping for that again.
Dr Masters, You need to make a correction.

Tuesday, January 8, was the hottest day in Australian history, averaged over the entire country, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The high temperature averaged over Australia was 105F (40.3C),



That record was set on Monday the 7th of January. But Yesterday( Tuesday) will likely surpass that record.


From ABC News:

The hot weather that has fuelled the fires in southern Australia has also delivered the nation its hottest day since records began a century ago.

The national temperature is the average of hundreds of daily readings across the country and yesterday it hit 40.3 degrees.

But the record is not expected to last - the Weather Bureau predicts today's scorching temperatures in some parts will set another high.

For the past week, temperatures in Oodnadatta in South Australia's far north have hit more than 45 degrees Celsius.

"The bitumen road's melting but you don't really blame it," local Lynnie Plate told PM.

"It's like a ghost town here. People come out in the mornings. My theory is if you get up before the heat then you're much better coping."

Today the mercury went above 47 degrees in Oodnadatta. It was also the 10th consecutive day over 40 degrees in the town, 170 kilometres south of the Northern Territory border.

Over the border, Alice Springs has had six straight days above 42C and Yulara near Uluru has had five above 44C - records for both towns.

John Wallington from Outback Ballooning in Alice Springs says the heat has not helped tourism.

"It's hot and it's also unstable - the weather has been a little bit unpredictable for the last days. It's frustrating in our business," he said.

Dr David Jones from the Bureau of Meteorology says the sweltering heat is being felt across the nation.

"In records going way back to the start of 1911, yesterday - with an average temperature of 40.33 - is Australia's new hottest day on record," he said.

Dr Jones says the national temperature is the average of between 700 and 800 stations.

"And if we look at maximum temperatures that were recorded at those, average those across country, taking into account the spatial distribution, and then just get a simple number," Dr Jones said.

"So what it tells us really is if you look across Australia, as an average, what was the daytime maximum temperature."

The previous all-time high was in 1972.

Dr Jones says today is expected to be even hotter.

"Our guiders are suggesting we may beat yesterday's record by another 0.1 or 0.2 of a degree. The other record that we'll be watching is a run of very hot days," he said.

"We'd only ever seen four days of 39 degrees or above consecutively. We've now seen six, and we'll almost certainly see seven, and perhaps even eight.

"So, this event is now going beyond anything in our record books."

Back in Oodnadatta, there is no end in sight to the heatwave with the next six days forecast above 40 degrees.

"If you look at the weekly forecast, or dwell on the last 10 days you'd get a bit depressed, so I just look at the daily forecast," Ms Plate said.

"I looked tomorrow and it's 41; I think beauty - that's a cool change."


ABC 2013
Expect a linear squall line tomm over Central TX moving towards the coast according to reports
Thanks Dr. Masters for the very informative blog update..
Puts Australian heat wave into perspective..
Hopefully they will get some relief soon..
Thanks again..
Quoting islander101010:
mild.winter..e.cen.fl


So far so good..
Really hoping to not get a pipe-buster here (NW Fla.)..
But got that feeling.. :)
1.68 inches of rainfall this morning along the Harris/Montgomery County line including 1.0 inch in 15-minutes which suggests this air mass is very capable of some high totals in a short period of time
Quoting RitaEvac:
Expect a linear squall line tomm over Central TX moving towards the coast according to reports




Thanks, Rita. I'll be ready. Got the digital camera charged up and the rain gauge dumped out.

Hoping for a good soaking.



Given the tropical tap from the eastern Pacific in the mid and upper levels combined with a strong Gulf inflow, moisture levels will approach or exceed maximum values for early January…with PWS of 1.8-2.0 inches which is at or near summer levels. This combined with the threat for repeat cell movement…training will support the threat for very heavy rainfall possibly for an extended period of time especially near and north of the warm frontal boundary.
Yesterday was the 197th consecutive day without a tornado fatality in the U.S., tying the record for longest streak (1986-87).
Hey, Aussie.
Thanks for your post's.
Always good.



IL Weather Fan ~ Not seeing any snowfall in your forecast for at least the next few weeks unfortunately. :(

I know you want that snow pack.


Fun Puzzle of the day:

Mysterious “Beam” Interrupts Radar in Illinois, Puzzles Experts


"Since the 16th of November, the National Weather Service has been reporting that a mysterious “beam of interruption” in Lincoln, Illinois has been screwing with it’s radar. A quick glance at one of their Doppler images and it’s easy to see that something is shooting through the state, but as of now the meteorologists can only guess at the cause...."

Link
Quoting AussieStorm:
Yesterday was the 197th consecutive day without a tornado fatality in the U.S., tying the record for longest streak (1986-87).


Good News..
Here we go this weekend...

Next storm system will arrive into the area on Saturday with a strong cold front late Saturday or early Sunday. Rains will begins on Saturday and last through Monday…and while not expected to be heavy…the prolonged nature of light to moderate rains on top of what will then be very saturated grounds could lead to more run-off concerns especially since area rivers will just be reaching their peaks at this point. Highs on Saturday in the 70’s will tumble into the 40’s and 50’s on Sunday under cold air advection and rainfall.
Quoting pottery:
Hey, Aussie.
Thanks for your post's.
Always good.

No worries mate.
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Fun Puzzle of the day:

Mysterious “Beam” Interrupts Radar in Illinois, Puzzles Experts


"Since the 16th of November, the National Weather Service has been reporting that a mysterious “beam of interruption” in Lincoln, Illinois has been screwing with it’s radar. A quick glance at one of their Doppler images and it’s easy to see that something is shooting through the state, but as of now the meteorologists can only guess at the cause...."

Link

I see them all the time on our radar images here. quite common actually.
This is for Monday the 14th of January..... 52C-54C in South Australia.

Quoting RitaEvac:
1.68 inches of rainfall this morning along the Harris/Montgomery County line including 1.0 inch in 15-minutes which suggests this air mass is very capable of some high totals in a short period of time
.10 here see the difference. LOL
Quoting AussieStorm:
This is for Monday the 14th of January..... 52C-54C in South Australia.



Yikes!!
I can't see the scale very well,but I can see the colors.. :)
You don't have to be a met. to understand that one..
Wow..

NSW Police Force

Three teenage boys have been charged after they allegedly lit a fire in bushland at Shalvey yesterday afternoon.

About 1:15pm, Tuesday 8 January 2013, police were called to a fire in bushland behind Chestnut and Sedgman Crescent.

About 15 appliances from the Rural Fire Service (RFS) and five police cars attended the scene.

It took fire-fighters two and a half hours to bring the fire under control, however, approximately ten hectares had been burnt out as a result of the blaze.

No one was injured during the fire and no properties damaged.

Three teenage boys were arrested in the vicinity of the fire and taken to Mt Druitt Police Station where they were spoken to by investigators.

Detectives from Mt Druitt Local Area Command and the State Crime Command’s Arson Squad attended Chestnut Crescent and conducted examinations of the scene.

A 14-year-old boy and two boys, aged 15, were charged with intentionally cause fire being reckless to its spreading and also causing or setting fire to the property of another.

They were granted strict conditional bail to appear in Parramatta Children’s Court on Tuesday 29 January 2013.
Hottest days on record

State by state:
SA: 50.7C (123.2F) Oodnadatta, January 2, 1960
WA: 50.5C (122.9F) Mardie, February 19, 1998
NSW: 49.7C (121.4F) Menindee, January 10, 1939
Qld: 49.5C (121.1F) Birdsville, December 24, 1972
Vic: 48.8C (119.8F) Hopetoun, February 7, 2009
NT: 48.3C (118.3F) Finke, January 1, 1960
ACT: 42.2C (107.9F) Canberra, February 1, 1968
Tas: 42.2C (107.9F) Scamander, January 30, 2009

Capital cities:
Adelaide: 47.6C (117.6F) January 12, 1939
Melbourne: 46.4C (115.5F) February 7, 2009
Perth: 46.2C (115.1F) February 23, 1991
Sydney: 45.3C (113.5F) January 14, 1939
Brisbane: 43.2C (109.7F) January 26, 1940
Canberra: 42.2C (107.9F) February 1, 1968
Hobart: 41.8C (107.2F) January 4, 2013
Darwin: 40.5C (104.9F) October 17, 1892
bad rains going into the flood area's of LA....

.NOW...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. HEAVIER RAIN CONCENTRATION WILL BE
NEAR TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY...WITH LIGHTER RAIN AREAS NEAR THE I30
CORRIDOR. RAINFALL RATES WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT TO MODERATE...AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH STRONGER STORMS.
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE PEARL RIVER NEAR BOGALUSA.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 7:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.7 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER HAS ALREADY CRESTED AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL
TO AROUND 20.5 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING JANUARY 13TH.
* IMPACT...AT 20.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
WILL BE FLOODED. THE BOGUE CHITTO WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA WILL BE
INUNDATED WITH WATER IN RECREATIONAL CAMPS AND OVER ACCESS ROADS
* IMPACT...AT 18.5 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
WILL BE FLOODED. THE BOGUE CHITTO WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA WILL BE
INUNDATED WITH WATER IN RECREATIONAL CAMPS AND OVER ACCESS ROADS
* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...WOODLANDS AND CROP ACREAGE ALONG THE RIVER
WILL BE FLOODED.
* IMPACT...AT 16.0 FEET...WOODLANDS ALONG THE RIVER AND WILDLIFE
MANAGEMENT PROPERTY WILL BE FLOODED.

$$
Thanks Dr. Masters, for continuing to highlight extreme weather in other parts of the world, that we might not hear about otherwise.

In the other hemisphere, the opposite extreme weather in China....
China's Coldest Winter in Decades
Link
Quoting LargoFl:


Pretty wicked movement of the rain on the radar. Some of the bands offshore are going almost due east while others on shore just west of Houston are going due North. Need to watch out for some brief tornadoes today and tomorrow.
Quite a bit of rain about

Radar Unisys

Oh yes, I feel it now.



Loop
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Initial USGS EarthQuake Report:

5.7mag..
47km WSW of Bozcaada, Turkey 2013-01-08 14:16:09
39.659 N 25.567E Depth 9.9km

No other info available at this time..
Quoting AussieStorm:
This is for Monday the 14th of January..... 52C-54C in South Australia.



WOW!!! I want a cave, a very deep cave.

Good luck, Aussie and all your mates down there.
Gee, I just noticed Dr Masters corrected his blog.

Don't worry Dr Masters, I know you don't like me cause of your busted forecast of Paula. Remember that!!!

I'm going to bed now that the southerly change is here. Good night all. Stay warm and dry.

P.S Bega on the south coast of NSW hit a high of 105.8F at 11:30am Tuesday morning, right now it's 63.9F
Quoting TomballTXPride:



IL Weather Fan ~ Not seeing any snowfall in your forecast for at least the next few weeks unfortunately. :(

I know you want that snow pack.


Mine has been consistently showing snow Sun/Mon, but I'm W of him. Last of past snow should be gone by tomorrow at latest. Hope to get good rain over upper MS, lower MO & IL valleys in next two days. StL now saying mid 60s late week, then major cool down on Sun.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Gee, I just noticed Dr Masters corrected his blog.

Don't worry Dr Masters, I know you don't like me cause of your busted forecast of Paula. Remember that!!!

I'm going to bed now that the southerly change is here. Good night all. Stay warm and dry.


??
I'm not seeing the edit Aussie..
Give me a clue.. :)
Quoting pcola57:


??
I'm not seeing the edit Aussie..
Give me a clue.. :)


Check out
16. AussieStorm 2:45 PM GMT on January 08, 2013
Dr Masters, You need to make a correction.

Tuesday, January 8, was the hottest day in Australian history, averaged over the entire country, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The high temperature averaged over Australia was 105F (40.3C),
Quoting AussieStorm:


Check out
16. AussieStorm 2:45 PM GMT on January 08, 2013



Thanks Aussie..
I must of passed over the post you made..
Rest well.. :)
Quoting pcola57:


Thanks Aussie..
I must of passed over the post you made..
Rest well.. :)

it's ok. Goodnight all. 2:45am and cooling down nicely.
Aussie, i see you also corrected your mistake.
i caught that 'Monday the 6th' you had typed up... you edited just in time as i was going to quote you ;)
Meanwhile here in D.C we saw ice on the grassy areas and on car surfaces.I heard the ground crunch up under my feet as I walked to work this morning.We've seen our share of cold mornings already this year.However that'll be taken away by that milder air that's suppose to come >.>...
Thanks Doc.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Pretty wicked movement of the rain on the radar. Some of the bands offshore are going almost due east while others on shore just west of Houston are going due North. Need to watch out for some brief tornadoes today and tomorrow.
yes be very careful over there especially tonight when the storms are supposed to get stronger,might just be a very dangerous morning tomorrow..
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Fun Puzzle of the day:

Mysterious “Beam” Interrupts Radar in Illinois, Puzzles Experts


"Since the 16th of November, the National Weather Service has been reporting that a mysterious “beam of interruption” in Lincoln, Illinois has been screwing with it’s radar. A quick glance at one of their Doppler images and it’s easy to see that something is shooting through the state, but as of now the meteorologists can only guess at the cause...."

Link
Interesting story! Good morning everyone. I used to experience interruption with my car's computer brain from radar at Boca Chica, so a cell tower is probably the most likely explanation. I always wonder what all these "invisible" waves of energy will do to living tissue.
....................im wondering what is going to happen when this HUGE blob of moisture hits that cold air up by the great lakes..hope its not freezing temps when it gets up there..whew
It appears that hypuweather keeps on reassuring the cold air will "come".I gues they don't want their forecast of above normal snow to blow up in their face again.The models don't look to happy about cold air in the east...
Quoting washingtonian115:
It appears that hypuweather keeps on reassuring the cold air will "come".I gues they don't want their forecast of above normal snow to blow up in their face again.The models don't look to happy about cold air in the east...
..NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
939 AM EST TUE JAN 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN THURSDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL PROVIDE MORE DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH ALONG
WITH SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO...RANGING
FROM THE 40S IN NORTHERN MARYLAND TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA.

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH CLOUDS MAY FILTER THE SUN AT TIMES...BUT
THE CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN THIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AND W/ HIGH PRES OFFSHORE TNGT LGT WAA WL KEEP TEMPS RLVTLY WARM
IN WHAT IS TRADITIONALLY THE COLDEST TIME OF THE YR. LOWS IN THE
U20S IN THE HIGHLANDS...L40S IN THE CITIES...30 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
NOT PRODUCING ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE...AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL NOT BE PRESENT. IN ADDITION...LITTLE IF ANY...FORCING AT THE
SURFACE OR ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT.

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY...
BUT THE CENTER QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE
NAM AND THE GFS KEEP THE CWFA IN A "WEDGE" PATTERN WITH A WARM
FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY AND SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONAL PRECIP
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA LATER ON FRIDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD IMPACT THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&
Quoting washingtonian115:
Meanwhile here in D.C we saw ice on the grassy areas and on car surfaces.I heard the ground crunch up under my feet as I walked to work this morning.We've seen our share of cold mornings already this year.However that'll be taken away by that milder air that's suppose to come >.>...


Cheetos?
looks like south fl will get into the 30 on the 18th when that big cold front comes
TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE
____________________________

Narelle intensifying... and so is the impact danger for western Australia

NOTE: All timing in the forecast path is in Australia Time...about 1 day ahead of us in USA
PTWC: #4



click imager for larger view...
Which one is right??



Narelle looks like trouble to me, predicted for a peak of 150mph just off the coast of Western Australia.


Very favorable upper level environment aloft, good conditions all around, with very high SSTs in the way. This could be a bad cyclone and get awfully coast to the coast.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Cheetos?
Lol.Might as well been since that is what it sounded like.
I see a nearly record-braking high for this upcoming Saturday Jan 12...


Forecast for Sat...High 55F

All time record: 56F set in 1975
So far pretty lame with scattered activity over TX, long ways to go though.
Quoting DFWdad:
Thanks Dr. Masters, for continuing to highlight extreme weather in other parts of the world, that we might not hear about otherwise.

In the other hemisphere, the opposite extreme weather in China....
China's Coldest Winter in Decades
Link


Coldest winter in decades isn't extreme enough to get mentioned on this blog. If it was the warmest in decades it would get mentioned.
Hmm... 12F below average and crippling levels of smog that I currently face in Salt Lake City or 120+F heat index values in Australia... I think I prefer the former and my nose prefers the latter.
haha i notice the bias,,it seems that when extreme heat mentioned but cold not even talked about by know one,,
Quoting luvtogolf:


Coldest winter in decades isn't extreme enough to get mentioned on this blog. If it was the warmest in decades it would get mentioned.
See that deep purple in the middle of this acne-red weather report from Down Under? That right there represents 129.2° F or 54 °C — it's a brand-new shade that the Australian bureau of meteorology was forced to add to its heat index because their country is, you know, kind of on fire. "The scale has just been increased today and I would anticipate it is because the forecast coming from the bureau's model is showing temperatures in excess of 50 degrees,"

Quoting luvtogolf:


Coldest winter in decades isn't extreme enough to get mentioned on this blog. If it was the warmest in decades it would get mentioned.


It was mentioned months ago, everybody has read about the first months of 2012 in Australia being influenced by the past Nina. This blog is supposed to speak about the CURRENT situation of this ongoing heat wave.
Quoting luvtogolf:


Coldest winter in decades isn't extreme enough to get mentioned on this blog. If it was the warmest in decades it would get mentioned.
Quoting stormchaser43:
haha i notice the bias,,it seems that when extreme heat mentioned but cold not even talked about by know one,,
Nah, it probably just seems that way since, you know, incredible heat is so much more prevalent these days than incredible cold. When there is cold/snow of note, Dr. Masters seldom fails to mention it:

Oklahoma's coldest morning on record: -31F ; storm leaves 2 feet of snow

Bitter cold in Alaska and Europe

An upside-down winter: coldest in 25 years in U.S.,

Another amazingly snowy winter for the U.S.

Google: it's not just for recipes...

Wide view of China today. MODIS satellite photo. Australia sells coal to China. China burns it and Australia get hotter. How about that.

Quoting luvtogolf:


Coldest winter in decades isn't extreme enough to get mentioned on this blog. If it was the warmest in decades it would get mentioned.


Funny that aint it ? ;)

Just like you rarely see this Map posted when it look like this....



Quoting wxmod:
Wide view of China today. MODIS satellite photo. Australia sells coal to China. China burns it and Australia get hotter. How about that.






That's small potatoes.

You forget to mention all those pretty crisscrossing chemtrails being dumped by hundreds of military aircraft as part of a government conspiracy to fill the atmosphere with aluminum and barium aerosols to block out the sun's rays causing the Earth to rapidly warm.

WxMod, You're slipping. I'm disappointed in you.

Only 1 gold star for you today.




Quoting luvtogolf:


Coldest winter in decades isn't extreme enough to get mentioned on this blog. If it was the warmest in decades it would get mentioned.


Got it. You were talking about China.
Here we have

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian /comment.html?entrynum=114

Published yesterday just before the current blog.
Please have the decency of have a peek, just a peek to the blogs before trying to accuse somebody of partiality.
The cold waves in China and India are well described (but not a single station has beaten or approached its all-time record in China yet).
The cold waves in December in Europe and Central Asia were also described in past blogs.
Quoting VR46L:


Funny that aint it ? ;)

Just like you rarely see this Map posted when it look like this....







So true, Liz.



Dug up something interesting:

Salt Lake City forecast discussion:

PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERN IS WITH ONGOING INVERTED
CONDITIONS...LEADING TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...PATCHY FOG AND URBAN HAZE.

00Z KSLC RAOB INDICATES THE INVERSION IS 7C IN STRENGTH WITH A BASE AT 830MB. NAM AND GFS BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION HOLDING (ALBEIT WEAKENING) UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT PUNCHES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. CONTINUE TO MENTION DAYTIME URBAN HAZE AND NIGHTTIME PATCHY FOG THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

The trapped cold air.
Quoting stormchaser43:
haha i notice the bias,,it seems that when extreme heat mentioned but cold not even talked about by know one,,

LOLOL, good to see you'all keep trying.
Persistence is good.

:):))
tryng what? lol.been on here to observe and make observation and that what i notice.heat always gets mentioned and cold does not.start blogging here more and you notice it to.
Quoting pottery:

LOLOL, good to see you'all keep trying.
Persistence is good.

:):))
Quoting stormchaser43:
tryng what? lol.been on here to observe and make observation and that what i notice.heat always gets mentioned and cold does not.start blogging here more and you notice it to.


Note that if you click on the link Dr. Masters provides to Christopher C. Burt's Monday Blog post the post is titled:

"Record January Warmth in France and Australia while Record Cold in China and India Persists"

Note also that the record cold in China is still dwarfed by the magnitude of the record heat in Australia.

to whit: "Temperatures below -40C (-40F) have been reported in Manchuria and far western Xinjiang province (these temperatures are far from record values for the region where the Chinese national absolute minimum temperature of -52.3C/-62.1F was measured at Mohe in Heilongjiang Province on February 13, 1962)."

Sorry, yes it's very cold in China and India... but it's not nearly as extreme nor as dangerous as what is happening in Australia, and this blog has a history of talking about the most extreme and most dangerous weather events happening in the world.
It's already up to 80 degrees here in Central FL. Will be interesting to see if we break any records.
Meanwhile it's -39 C in Baker Lake, Nunavut with a chilly windchill of -55 C (-67 F).

If that isn't cold enough, the temperature is forecast to drop to -43 C (-45.4F) tonight with a windchill below -55 to as low as -60 C (-76 F) for the next couple of days due to brisk NW winds.
Quoting VR46L:


Funny that aint it ? ;)

Just like you rarely see this Map posted when it look like this....





That map just came out yesterday. Thank you for posting it. Perhaps you could have just said that is so rare that we get see a map like that anymore and had been more correct in your statement?
Quoting VR46L:


Funny that aint it ? ;)

Just like you rarely see this Map posted when it look like this....




Oh my God, look there! Alaska is above normal.

Seems I saw a map showing this pattern posted on here a week or so ago. Hate to chase through all those posts and probably wouldn't find it since the image has certainly been updated by NOAA since then.
Quoting stormchaser43:
tryng what? lol.been on here to observe and make observation and that what i notice.heat always gets mentioned and cold does not.start blogging here more and you notice it to.

You are probably correct.
The thing is, a very large majority of people are convinced that what we are seeing is a general trend with Global Temps going up.

So for the majority, the increasing temps are more noteworthy and scary, than the occasional cold-snaps.

I have no doubt we will continue to see variations in weather, of all kinds, for the future. And as some areas become warmer I would expect other areas to become cooler at times under the influence of anomalies in jet-stream flows, changing weather patterns,etc etc.

71 in S FL/WPB and rain all morning and the sun is now out!!:)
Quoting GTcooliebai:
It's already up to 80 degrees here in Central FL. Will be interesting to see if we break any records.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Nah, it probably just seems that way since, you know, incredible heat is so much more prevalent these days than incredible cold. When there is cold/snow of note, Dr. Masters seldom fails to mention it:

Oklahoma's coldest morning on record: -31F ; storm leaves 2 feet of snow

Bitter cold in Alaska and Europe

An upside-down winter: coldest in 25 years in U.S.,

Another amazingly snowy winter for the U.S.

Google: it's not just for recipes...



To be fair Nea..
2 of those posts are from 2011..1 from 2010 and 1 from 2012..
I'm Not taking sides on the issue..
(may be more current posts are archived??..actually dunno myself)
Just pointing the relevancy out..
They were from years ago and the 2012 one was from last January..
Quoting stormchaser43:
tryng what? lol.been on here to observe and make observation and that what i notice.heat always gets mentioned and cold does not.start blogging here more and you notice it to.

By the way, I've been reading this blog quite regularly, since October 2005.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Post 98. If the heat continues throughout this week, then to me the possibility of a cold snap increases.
Quoting pcola57:


To be fair Nea..
2 of those posts are forom 2011..1 from 2010 and 1 from 2012..
I'm Not taking sides on the issue..
Just pointing the relevancy out..
They were from years ago and the 2012 one was from last January..




Gee, PCola, you are right.

Here I was just assuming those links were from the past couple months or so.... I guess I was way off.

By the way, gorgeous pictures in your blog!! OMG. Had the chance to glimpse over them yesterday before the kids came home from school.....but no way does 5 minutes gazing at those beauties give them justice.

Well done!!!



Quoting pottery:

By the way, I've been reading this blog quite regularly, since October 2005.


Allegedly...
Quoting pottery:

You are probably correct.
The thing is, a very large majority of people are convinced that what we are seeing is a general trend with Global Temps going up.

So for the majority, the increasing temps are more noteworthy and scary, than the occasional cold-snaps.

I have no doubt we will continue to see variations in weather, of all kinds, for the future. And as some areas become warmer I would expect other areas to become cooler at times under the influence of anomalies in jet-stream flows, changing weather patterns,etc etc.



Well put Pottery..
Mobile, AL on Jan. 17 is forecasting a low of 29 with a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Link
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Allegedly...

heheheheh
One may notice anomalous heat being mentioned more frequently than cold weather simply due to the fact that, globally in any given year, warm spells in weather are much more common than cold spells...
Narelle is an excellent example of how helpful microwave satellite imagery is. With conventional imagery we see this:



Yes, there is a lot of deep convection, but it is difficult to determine what is underneath the CDO.

But with this recent 89 GHz pass we can see Narelle is forming an eyewall, and it has probably already formed in the mid-levels:



A forecast of rapid intensification seems more likely at this time.
When cold air comes south, air has to move north to replace it. A loopy jet stream brings the outbreaks of cold air. I bet that is warm air going north.

The event in Australia is a different animal. The hot air is not moving in from someplace else. The air is heating up right there over Australia. Perhaps the sun is shining more brightly over Aussie than the other bloggers.
Quoting pcola57:


Well put Pottery..

Thanks.
Quoting TomballTXPride:




Gee, PCola, you are right.

Here I was just assuming those links were from the past couple months or so.... I guess I was way off.

By the way, gorgeous pictures in your blog!! OMG. Had the chance to glimpse over them yesterday before the kids came home from school.....but no way does 5 minutes gazing at those beauties give them justice.

Well done!!!





Thanks so much for the compliment TomballTX..
I thought they were good as well.
So many of my WU friends stopped in for a look..
Thanks all for the suggestions and comments..
I really appreciate them.. :)
Quoting SteveDa1:
One may notice anomalous heat being mentioned more frequently than cold weather simply due to the fact that, globally in any given year, warm spells in weather are much more common than cold spells...

True, that.
The GFS still has the Mid-South getting soaked....Link


199
FXUS10 KWNH 081736
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1236 PM EST TUE JAN 08 2013

VALID JAN 08/1200 UTC THRU JAN 12/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET/CMC EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES

ANY MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE LARGE ENOUGH
TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR FORECASTS.


..TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WEST THURSDAY

PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE

THE NAM DOES NOT DIG THE WEST COAST TROUGH AS DEEPLY BEGINNING THU
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BUT OTHERWISE IS WITHIN THE SPREAD OF THE
REMAINING AVAILABLE MODELS ATTM. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST AND IS LITTLE FASTER
TO CLOSE OFF A LOW WHICH RESIDES SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY
FRI MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE UKMET LOOKS TOO BROAD WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH ON FRI WHILE THE CMC LIES ON THE FASTER SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE TO EJECT THE TROUGH EASTWARD. THE SREF/GEFS ARE
SLOWER THAN THE EC MEAN FRI MORNING...WHICH MAY MAKE SENSE GIVEN
THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WHICH WOULD TEND TO CAUSE
MORE ENERGY TO DIG DOWN THE WEST COAST VERSUS EJECT EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE ECMWF LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FASTER/SLOWER
SOLUTIONS...IT SEEMS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE WEST.
Quoting AussieStorm:
This is for Monday the 14th of January..... 52C-54C in South Australia.



Hey Aussie. Hoping for you all to get some relief from that heat and those fires out there.
I don't understand why. When there is a cold snap in someplace like China, no one talks about the corresponding mild winter weather that almost certainly occurs in some northerly clime. I am deeply disappointed by this obvious bias.
Quoting VR46L:


Funny that aint it ? ;)

Just like you rarely see this Map posted when it look like this....





that map only applies to heat extremes..bring on the COLD!!

also, I mentioned in the previous blog but wunderbot got me but Chuck posted a good discussion from one of the NWS about the stratospheric warming and I mentioned that JB might be right when he predicted it weeks ago..I wonder if bloggers who called him out will give him due when he is right?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Mobile, AL on Jan. 17 is forecasting a low of 29 with a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Link



bwahahahahha thats funny!
121. VR46L
Quoting bappit:

Oh my God, look there! Alaska is above normal.

Seems I saw a map showing this pattern posted on here a week or so ago. Hate to chase through all those posts and probably wouldn't find it since the image has certainly been updated by NOAA since then.


Guess who posted it lol... but that was because I was surprised it had not been posted all day .. then I realized folk don't seem to want to see them unless they are showing lots of brown .
Some new TCR are out...interesting thing... Carlotta upped to 110 mph from 105 mph.

NADINE... SANDY...and GORGON are the left important ones
Here it is, but does it happen.
Quoting ncstorm:


that map only applies to heat extremes..bring on the COLD!!

also, I mentioned in the previous blog but wunderbot got me but Chuck posted a good discussion from one of the NWS about the stratospheric warming and I mentioned that JB might be right when he predicted it weeks ago..I wonder if bloggers who called him out will give him due when he is right?





HA!

Thanks for the laugh.

You want the answer to your question?

Absolutely not. And when he's right, he is still wrong.

End of story.




Quoting ncstorm:


that map only applies to heat extremes..bring on the COLD!!

also, I mentioned in the previous blog but wunderbot got me but Chuck posted a good discussion from one of the NWS about the stratospheric warming and I mentioned that JB might be right when he predicted it weeks ago..I wonder if bloggers who called him out will give him due when he is right?

That is an interesting post. Here is the link. Scroll down to the Climate section.

Caused [according to the Buffalo NWS] by the quasi-biennial oscillation which occurs in the tropics.

"The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a quasi-periodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28 to 29 months." (Wikipedia)
Quoting hydrus:
Here it is, but does it happen.
So what does that mean hydrus?.Now talk in baby steps because I'm model challenged.
Quoting pcola57:


To be fair Nea..
2 of those posts are from 2011..1 from 2010 and 1 from 2012..
I'm Not taking sides on the issue..
(may be more current posts are archived??..actually dunno myself)
Just pointing the relevancy out..
They were from years ago and the 2012 one was from last January..
To be fair pcola57, neither of the posters to whom I was responding mentioned a time frame; they simply stated, "Coldest winter in decades isn't extreme enough to get mentioned on this blog..." and "...cold not even talked about by know one". Is there something in those posts that implies they wanted only current data? If so, I missed it--though if they had specified, I'm sure a quick check o' the Google can prove such a complaint just as baseless.

When someone claims--as has often been done here--that "Dr. Masters never talks about cold weather," I believe it perfectly relevant to go back to either of the last two winters to prove that complaint false. I think most reasonable people would agree.

Wait: the February before last was "years ago"? ;-)
LMAO

Plus 1 for humor.
Quoting washingtonian115:
So what does that mean hydrus?.Now talk in baby steps because I'm model challenged.
In a shellnut, it would mean that the Arctic air levee has broken,and the frigid weather cometh.
UK MET forecasts no global temperature increases for the next 5 years



Seems ripe for a blog from Jeff
Quoting hydrus:
In a shellnut, it would mean that the Arctic air levee has broken,and the frigid weather cometh.
Well at least that gives me hope that winter is just on vacation and will be coming back.
The Euro is coming into agreement with the GFS..
So far today just a bunch of drizzle. At least the fog finally lifted.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well at least that gives me hope that winter is just on vacation and will be coming back.


its coming with a vengeance..
Quoting nymore:
UK MET forecasts no global temperature increases for the next 5 years



Seems ripe for a blog from Jeff


UK Met Office throws cat among the pigeons. Global warming has stalled. Future forecasts scaled down. AGW deniers apoplectic with rapture (well, on The Telegraph comments, anyway).

Link
Quoting ncstorm:


its coming with a vengeance..
After the models seemed to go with a warm trend all through January they appear to be on the bandwagon again with cold air and a negative NOA in place.



Nea the ;-) was nothing but a friendly shout out.It wasn't meant to scare you away.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
So far today just a bunch of drizzle. At least the fog finally lifted.
remember its tonight and tomorrow for the heavy stuff..this is just the warm up
from the Almanac-Southeast Conditions

January 2013
8th-11th. Chilly rains.
12th-15th. Clearing skies.
16th-19th. Showers for lower Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia into Florida.
20th-23rd. Snow for Tennessee and western North Carolina, then clearing; rain across Southeast and Gulf Coast.
24th-27th. Dry and unseasonably cold; frosts into Florida.
28th-31st. Showers, then fair.

February 2013
1st-3rd. Fair skies.
4th-7th. Cold rains for Gulf States, then clearing, with frosts down to Florida.
8th-11th. Showery, thundery conditions.
12th-15th. Showery rains over all the Southeast. Coastal areas get increasingly strong and gusty winds. Some snow for the mountains of western North Carolina.
16th-19th. Showery from the Gulf Coast north to the Carolinas.
20th-23rd. Blustery.
24th-28th. Rain Mississippi, Alabama north and east to the Carolinas, then turning fair.

March 2013
1st-3rd. Pleasant.
4th-7th. Scattered showers.
141. yoboi
does anyone have a link that shows how much money al gore is reinvesting into green energy after his sale of tv station to the big oil company.....been looking finding nothing....
Quoting yoboi:
does anyone have a link that shows how much money al gore is reinvesting into green energy after his sale of tv station to the big oil company.....been looking finding nothing....


Ask Eric Blair or Amy Rochelle Colon.

They might know.


GFS at 48 hours..................
GFS; 276 HRS; Huge-ass 'cane hitting Australia.


Quoting yoboi:
does anyone have a link that shows how much money al gore is reinvesting into green energy after his sale of tv station to the big oil company.....been looking finding nothing....
ask lush bimbaugh
Bulk of activity is offshore. Houston you're in the clear....or will things change rapidly for the worst...

Maybe jumping the gun but the worst may be behind us
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1225 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2013

TXZ147-161-162-175-081900-
FREESTONE TX-LEON TX-LIMESTONE TX-ROBERTSON TX-
1225 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL FREESTONE COUNTY
SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY
WESTERN LEON COUNTY
NORTHEASTERN ROBERTSON COUNTY

AT 1224 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GROESBECK OR NEAR
MARQUEZ...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MARQUEZ...JEWETT AND
BUFFALO.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3158 9635 3150 9593 3105 9626 3119 9649
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 217DEG 34KT 3123 9629

$$
Quoting RitaEvac:
Maybe jumping the gun but the worst may be behind us
Rita be careful, remember nws keeps saying the worst comes tonight and all day tomorrow..GFS has it thru 48 hours
Quoting washingtonian115:
After the models seemed to go with a warm trend all through January they appear to be on the bandwagon again with cold air and a negative NOA in place.



Nea the ;-) was nothing but a friendly shout out.It wasn't meant to scare you away.
Here is another shellnut..
Quoting FunnelVortex:
GFS; 276 HRS; Huge-

As we've learned in the Atlantic many times these long term models are never to be trusted with these types of storms.Remember when Issac was suppose to make a visit to NYC the first few runs.

Hydrus I see nothing.
Quoting bappit:
I don't understand why. When there is a cold snap in someplace like China, no one talks about the corresponding mild winter weather that almost certainly occurs in some northerly clime. I am deeply disappointed by this obvious bias.


Get use to it. In early December Dr Masters posted a blog about the contigual United States and that it was one of the warmest on record. Funny that he completely ignored that Alaska (which in size is 1/3 of the contigual U.S.) was significantly below normal.
gee tomorrow is going to be a watchful day for tornados etc....
Texans put your cars in the garage or under cover....
Quoting yoboi:
does anyone have a link that shows how much money al gore is reinvesting into green energy after his sale of tv station to the big oil company.....been looking finding nothing....


Al Gore has already done more than anyone else on the planet to raise awareness of the dangers of global warming, and has mostly received vilification and hatred for his pains.

It's a pathetic indictment of the irrationality of human nature that he now needs bodyguards. And that's a pretty pathetic post (yours, that is).
Quoting LargoFl:
Rita be careful, remember nws keeps saying the worst comes tonight and all day tomorrow..GFS has it thru 48 hours


I can't see it right now, but the ULL is well west of us, so it should ramp up you would think
160. VR46L
Quoting nymore:
UK MET forecasts no global temperature increases for the next 5 years



Seems ripe for a blog from Jeff


Funny I heard about that last night ...was going to post it here but then saw how it went down when you posted the links, really seemed to upset folk on the CC blog ..Cant think why .. lets hope their model projection is correct . Funny on the bbc article it says

Scrutiny of Met Office forecasts and climate science generally is set to increase in the build-up to the publication of the next assessment by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in September.

Its almost like people want it to be wrong LOL
Saturday, my little warm snap ends.

Quoting washingtonian115:
As we've learned in the Atlantic many times these long term models are never to be trusted with these types of storms.Remember when Issac was suppose to make a visit to NYC the first few runs.

Hydrus I see nothing.
Quoting hydrus:
Oh.Seems temps could get into the 20's for highs if that were to come true.
Quoting bappit:

That is an interesting post. Here is the link. Scroll down to the Climate section.

Caused [according to the Buffalo NWS] by the quasi-biennial oscillation which occurs in the tropics.

"The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a quasi-periodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28 to 29 months." (Wikipedia)


I read that when Chuck posted it..
I really thought that was an ex-well discussed Climate dissertation..
One of the best explanations that I've seen in a NWS product since..Well I can't remember when.. :)

Ceilings have dropped tremendously and hazy like conditions and somewhat darker out along the coast/Galveston Bay, as if warm front has moved in or something
Quoting yonzabam:


Al Gore has already done more than anyone else on the planet to raise awareness of the dangers of global warming, and has mostly received vilification and hatred for his pains.

It's a pathetic indictment of the irrationality of human nature that he now needs bodyguards. And that's a pretty pathetic post (yours, that is).



Does that include the millions upon millions he made in the process?


I'm wondering if wunderground could add something where you can look back at all your comments for the last month.Even if it were removed.
Quoting hydrus:
In a shellnut, it would mean that the Arctic air levee has broken,and the frigid weather cometh.
Oh God.. the Army Corps of Engineers has built an Artic Air Levee Too?!?!?
I've already got nearly an inch! Not a bad start to things.

FWIW, NOAA just released its 2012 State of the Climate report, which contains this map:

hot

Discuss amongst yourselves.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Ceilings have dropped tremendously and hazy like conditions and somewhat darker out along the coast/Galveston Bay, as if warm front has moved in or something

I don't think it is there yet, but looks like it should be there pretty soon!

Quoting Neapolitan:
FWIW, NOAA just released its 2012 State of the Climate report, which contains this map:

hot

Discuss amongst yourselves.
looks like a bunch a propaganda to me.... ;D
Quoting RitaEvac:
Ceilings have dropped tremendously and hazy like conditions and somewhat darker out along the coast/Galveston Bay, as if warm front has moved in or something
Pretty nice day here too. The Drizzle has stopped and fog has lifted, no real rain here last 24 hrs but it did thunder earlier. Does not look like it will be an all day event, hopefully overnight tonight we get some? The weathermen locally are alot less optimistic than they were yesterday at this time, LOL. They are saying we are going to be on the Edge of having decent rains, that is way it is here all the time right on the edge between alot of rain or no rain at ll. LOL
Quoting JNCali:
looks like a bunch a propaganda to me.... ;D


Nea is always going on about AGW and blames as much on it as possible.
Quoting Neapolitan:
FWIW, NOAA just released its 2012 State of the Climate report, which contains this map:

hot

Discuss amongst yourselves.
Actually my local news paper released that about a week ago.No one is going to forget the summer of 2012 ;-).At least not around here.The thunderstorms were as one local met said "super" thunderstorms.I'm not just talking about that derecho either ;-).
It's official. In records dating to 1895, 2012 was the warmest year on record for the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

Quoting Neapolitan:
To be fair pcola57, neither of the posters to whom I was responding mentioned a time frame; they simply stated, "Coldest winter in decades isn't extreme enough to get mentioned on this blog..." and "...cold not even talked about by know one". Is there something in those posts that implies they wanted only current data? If so, I missed it--though if they had specified, I'm sure a quick check o' the Google can prove such a complaint just as baseless.

When someone claims--as has often been done here--that "Dr. Masters never talks about cold weather," I believe it perfectly relevant to go back to either of the last two winters to prove that complaint false. I think most reasonable people would agree.

Wait: the February before last was "years ago"? ;-)


Ok Nea..
2010,2011,2012.
That would have probably been a more correct statement than the "years ago" that I posted..
Like i said when I posted that ,I am not taking sides..
I just looked up the Links you posted and saw what I described in my previous post to you..
I personally believe that the Climate has changed..
However I'm not going to impose my "verbal will" or incessantly beating a drum to others here on this blog..
I think that it is presumptuous to think others don't have the intelligence to figure it out for themselves..
JMO of course..
Quoting RitaEvac:
Ceilings have dropped tremendously and hazy like conditions and somewhat darker out along the coast/Galveston Bay, as if warm front has moved in or something

I work in downtown Houston (32nd floor) and the visibility up here is really bad - can barely see across the street to another building, which is roughly 300 feet away. A few floors down the sky is much clearer.
182. VR46L
Rather Deep Convection in the Gulf region

Something that is troubling thus far is that the models haven't really picked up on the big batch of rain off of the coast, and convective feedback like that can often change forecasts very quickly.

Quoting hydrus:
Here is another shellnut..


In a nutshell, I made this comment to inform you of the fact that i love shellnuts.
Those who use one record year as proof for Man-Made Global Warming have got a lot to learn about Climate.
Yep, they do. .... Who are you referring to, exactly?

Quoting TomballTXPride:
Those who use one record year as proof for Man-Made Global Warming have got a lot to learn about Climate.
Quoting pcola57:

owever I'm not going to impose my "verbal will" or incessantly beating a drum to others here on this blog..
The funny thing is, there are always far more complaints here about people discussing climate change than there are comments actually discussing climate change.

Methinks some doth protest too much... ;-)

(I'm not sure what you mean by someone "imposing" their "verbal will"; are you perhaps confusing that with someone who discusses a particular issue with honest confidence?)
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Something that is troubling thus far is that the models haven't really picked up on the big batch of rain off of the coast, and convective feedback like that can often change forecasts very quickly.



It's robbed the influx of gulf moisture coming north
Quoting nymore:
UK MET forecasts no global temperature increases for the next 5 years



Seems ripe for a blog from Jeff


You keep forgetting to mention this quote from the article, nymore:

"However, it is thought that factors such as ocean current patterns may be behind the slowdown and scientists say the “variability” in climate change does not alter the long-term trend of rising temperatures."
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Those who use one record year as proof for Man-Made Global Warming have got a lot to learn about Climate.


Oh, the irony! What about that 1998 straw the deniers still cling to? An anomalous outlier year 14 years ago, caused by the warmest El Nino on record, when Pacific SSTs were as much as 6C above average.

Still marginally the warmest year on record in the UK HadCRUT database, but exceeded by 2010 in the NASA and NOAA databases. Still, when you're all at sea, any straw will do.
192. VR46L
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


That map just came out yesterday. Thank you for posting it. Perhaps you could have just said that is so rare that we get see a map like that anymore and had been more correct in your statement?


Sorry Rookie I only saw your reply now but they are actually released daily and they have been growing blue everyday over the last week ...But I stand over what I said ...

edit one word
Quoting yonzabam:


Oh, the irony! What about that 1998 straw the deniers still cling to? An anomalous outlier year 14 years ago, caused by the warmest El Nino on record, when Pacific SSTs were as much as 6C above average.

Still marginally the warmest year on record in the UK HadCRUT database, but exceeded by 2010 in the NASA and NOAA databases. Still, when you're all at sea, any straw will do.



I have never used a single year as a baseline period.

So I repeat, Yonzabam:

Those who use one record year as proof for Man-Made Global Warming have got a lot to learn about Climate.


Quoting yonzabam:


Oh, the irony! What about that 1998 straw the deniers still cling to? An anomalous outlier year 14 years ago, caused by the warmest El Nino on record, when Pacific SSTs were as much as 6C above average.

Still marginally the warmest year on record in the UK HadCRUT database, but exceeded by 2010 in the NASA and NOAA databases. Still, when you're all at sea, any straw will do.
I'm denying that my cable bill is $250.00.Damn please reassure me it's not.
Quoting yonzabam:


Oh, the irony! What about that 1998 straw the deniers still cling to? An anomalous outlier year 14 years ago, caused by the warmest El Nino on record, when Pacific SSTs were as much as 6C above average.

Still marginally the warmest year on record in the UK HadCRUT database, but exceeded by 2010 in the NASA and NOAA databases. Still, when you're all at sea, any straw will do.


The term "Denier" is extremely childish. It does not make you look smart, it actually makes you look more idiotic.
If you aren't talking about the rain over TX, you're all being banned.
198. wxmod
The Himilaya and the sacred Ganges River valley, puffing with thick smog. MODIS satellite photo today

Quoting FunnelVortex:


The term "Denier" is extremely childish. It does not make you look smart, it actually makes you look more idiotic.


It sure does. But I bit my tongue before using a word they all HATE. I decided I wanted to take the higher road instead of throwing around childish labels along with false generalizations built upon steadfast stereotyping.

Alright congress, gtg i'll be back later when a nice conversation has returned to this blog.
201. VR46L
Quoting FunnelVortex:


The term "Denier" is extremely childish. It does not make you look smart, it actually makes you look more idiotic.


I think the use of labels is an attempt to marginalize almost dehumanize the person you are addressing . Through history we have seen what happens to people who are labelled ....


anyways...

interesting looking weather in the Gulf





Quoting FunnelVortex:


The term "Denier" is extremely childish. It does not make you look smart, it actually makes you look more idiotic.


No, what's really idiotic is to deny that those who deny something are deniers.
Quoting pcola57:


Ok Nea..
2010,2011,2012.
That would have probably been a more correct statement than the "years ago" that I posted..
Like i said when I posted that ,I am not taking sides..
I just looked up the Links you posted and saw what I described in my previous post to you..
I personally believe that the Climate has changed..
However I'm not going to impose my "verbal will" or incessantly beating a drum to others here on this blog..
I think that it is presumptuous to think others don't have the intelligence to figure it out for themselves..
JMO of course..


I find it interesting that many times certain people will call NEA out and even note when he does not make a quick reply to their statements. There is as much pull technology going here as there is push technology.
ok geez c'mon people stop it.i mean evertything was smooth go this morning and now look at mess made here.bickering was confined to climate chang e blog this mroning between tomball and neapolitan and now spill over to here.let's stay on track ppl.we have good rain in lone star st,,please stop the fighting.no one will win gw arguing never never,,
Post season reports of Joyce with peak intensity of 35kts and Nadine at 80kts are out.

Link

Link
Quoting stormchaser43:
ok geez c'mon people stop it.i mean evertything was smooth go this morning and now look at mess made here.bickering was confined to climate chang e blog this mroning between tomball and neapolitan and now spill over to here.let's stay on track ppl.we have good rain in lone star st,,please stop the fighting.no one will win gw arguing never never,,


Hey, now!!

It was friendly banter. :)

207. wxmod
Quoting TomballTXPride:





That's small potatoes.

You forget to mention all those pretty crisscrossing chemtrails being dumped by hundreds of military aircraft as part of a government conspiracy to fill the atmosphere with aluminum and barium aerosols to block out the sun's rays causing the Earth to rapidly warm.

WxMod, You're slipping. I'm disappointed in you.

Only 1 gold star for you today.






I just posted a satellite photo. It shows thousand of square miles cloaked in thick smog. If you were living under that smog and your kids were dying from asthma, maybe you would think that it was important. As it is, you can get paid for blogging all day, go home at night and tell your family that you contributed to ruining the planet for your kids. Thanks.
Quoting wxmod:


I just posted a satellite photo. It shows thousand of square miles cloaked in thick smog. If you were living under that smog and your kids were dying from asthma, maybe you would think that it was important. As it is, you can get paid for blogging all day, go home at night and tell your family that you contributed to ruining the planet for your kids. Thanks.


You're welcome.


You called people "nuts" and then whine that someone called you a "denier".
Flash Flood guidance is the highest it has been in quite a while around here.

Mentioned what the 12z CMC Ensemble was showing yesterday. Here's the latest from the GFS & ECMWF Ensembles...

GFS Ensembles (12z) Day 15 500mb Height Anomalies




ECMWF Ensembles (00z) Day 15 2m Temp Anomalies (C)





Still too far out for any confidence in this. But at the same time, I wouldn't buy into those saying that the second half of January into February will be record cold...
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Flash Flood guidance is the highest it has been in quite a while around here.



We just need it a lil more to the west.
213. yoboi
Quoting yonzabam:


Al Gore has already done more than anyone else on the planet to raise awareness of the dangers of global warming, and has mostly received vilification and hatred for his pains.

It's a pathetic indictment of the irrationality of human nature that he now needs bodyguards. And that's a pretty pathetic post (yours, that is).



so ya don't have a link i was asking for??
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You keep forgetting to mention this quote from the article, nymore:

"However, it is thought that factors such as ocean current patterns may be behind the slowdown and scientists say the “variability” in climate change does not alter the long-term trend of rising temperatures."


Then why doesn't anyone ever say ocean currents may be behind the warming?

I still think we add our part but the real question now is what part.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


We just need it a lil more to the west.
300 miles to the west lol. Looks like Southeast Texas and La. will get most of this rain even and maybe along the Texas coast.
216. VR46L
Quoting ArkWeather:
You called people "nuts" and then whine that someone called you a "denier".


I have never called anyone nuts on this forum . You dont even have to deny CC to be called a denier you just have to say you are unsure how much is man made ...
Quoting nymore:


Then why doesn't anyone ever say ocean currents may be behind the warming?

I still think we add our part but the real question now is what part.


I believe that is quite fair to ask. The simplest answer I have to finding out "how much" is for us to lower the CO2 levels back down to the levels before the warming began and then measure again.
12Z ECMWF puts the heaviest rains over Central Texas still.



Good (barely-here) Afternoon. Much Nice Today. 72.9 outside and the first time in awhile that the temp outside was higher than inside (72.4) The low
this morning was 52.2 Yesterdays temps were 48.1 and 65.9 The forecast is for 73 today and tomorrow then crashing to the mid 50's (yuck)....
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL CYCLONE NARELLE, CATEGORY TWO (05U)
3:08 AM CST January 9 2012
=========================================

At 2:00 AM CST, Tropical Cyclone Narelle (984 hPa) was located near 12.5S 117.0E or 830 km northwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.3S 116.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 14.3S 116.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 16.9S 115.3E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 19.4S 113.3E - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
======================
Position based on 1406 UTC scatterometer and earlier microwave images. A central dense overcast has formed with a convective burst over the Low level circulation center. Peripheral banding in southwest sector, good outflow evident to north and west. An incipient eyewall is evident in microwave imagery. Dvorak analysis based on PAT=4.0, as DT uncertain in embedded center pattern. The radius of gale has been extended based on a good ASCAT pass.

The system is becoming more organized as it moves southwest into an area of reduced vertical wind shear. The environment is favorable for further development with deep moisture, broad-scale upper divergence and a vigorous westerly monsoonal flow to the north. Intensification is forecast at greater than the standard rate during the next 24-48 hours, with the cyclone reaching category 4 off the northwest coast of Western Australia
Quoting VR46L:


I have never called anyone nuts on this forum . You dont even have to deny CC to be called a denier you just have to say you are unsure how much is man made ...


I do not read every post that has ever been posted since I became a member here, but I have not seen this to be the case.I am not going to say it has never happened here before, but I find it difficult to imagine anyone being labeled as "denier" simply for stating they were unsure as to how much of the warming is anthropogenic warming. There is usually quite a bit more information given before the word "denier" is given as a label.
Quoting VR46L:


I have never called anyone nuts on this forum . You dont even have to deny CC to be called a denier you just have to say you are unsure how much is man made ...


Nope. I don't remember anyone who questioned how much global warming might be due to greenhouse gases and how much might be due to other factors, being called a denier. It's a rational viewpoint.
Quoting PedleyCA:
Good (barely-here) Afternoon. Much Nice Today. 72.9 outside and the first time in awhile that the temp outside was higher than inside (72.4) The low
this morning was 52.2 Yesterdays temps were 48.1 and 65.9 The forecast is for 73 today and tomorrow then crashing to the mid 50's (yuck)....
Sure has been cold out here in the west. Supposed to be in the low 40s tonight where I am (Santa Barbara). More cold expected after a trough passes through on Thursday
Quoting TomTaylor:
Mentioned what the 12z CMC Ensemble was showing yesterday. Here's the latest from the GFS & ECMWF Ensembles...

GFS Ensembles (12z) Day 15 500mb Height Anomalies




ECMWF Ensembles (00z) Day 15 2m Temp Anomalies (C)





Still too far out for any confidence in this. But at the same time, I wouldn't buy into those saying that the second half of January into February will be record cold...


12z GEM ensemble mean is cold but not frigid.

Quoting TomTaylor:
Mentioned what the 12z CMC Ensemble was showing yesterday. Here's the latest from the GFS & ECMWF Ensembles...

GFS Ensembles (12z) Day 15 500mb Height Anomalies




ECMWF Ensembles (00z) Day 15 2m Temp Anomalies (C)





Still too far out for any confidence in this. But at the same time, I wouldn't buy into those saying that the second half of January into February will be record cold...
The main reason I lean towards a major pattern change is Central Texas getting heavy rain...Something they cant ever seem to get lately..:)
226. VR46L
I dont know , I get the distinct impression that I am labelled a denier ...tend to think its both a natural cycle and part man made and am hopeful that it may change shortly.
Quoting PedleyCA:
Good (barely-here) Afternoon. Much Nice Today. 72.9 outside and the first time in awhile that the temp outside was higher than inside (72.4) The low
this morning was 52.2 Yesterdays temps were 48.1 and 65.9 The forecast is for 73 today and tomorrow then crashing to the mid 50's (yuck)....
Sounds nice to me, how you doing on rainfall out there? Hurting here in Texas but I am getting drizzle again, there are some showers are storms out there but they are scattered and well away from me.
Quoting Levi32:


12z GEM ensemble mean is cold but not frigid.



How is it going, Levi? I am glad you are finding some time to post a little more often than before. I feel certain that you are going to be one of the best! I wish you great success!
Quoting VR46L:
I dont know , I get the distinct impression that I am labelled a denier ...tend to think its both a natural cycle and part man made and am hopeful that it may change shortly.


I am with you 100% on this line of thought. My shared optimism is tempered by a lack of seeing anything that could reverse the long term trends. I do no see any natural variations returning us to the pre-industrial climate on our horizon. Something catastrophic would have to happen and that may not be any better for us.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


How is it going, Levi? I am glad you are finding some time to post a little more often than before. I feel certain that you are going to be one of the best! I wish you great success!


Why thank you. I'm doing well, enjoying the last week of break.

I've gotten a ton of work done. With any luck I intend to have some kind of a live model page up either later today or tomorrow. Fingers crossed.
Quoting nymore:


Then why doesn't anyone ever say ocean currents may be behind the warming?

I still think we add our part but the real question now is what part.


The oceans are an absolutely gigantic heat sink, and its potential for moderating or potentiating global warming,is also huge, but very poorly understood.

If global warming has a significant effect on the oceanic gyre, this could act as a powerful positive or negative feedback, accelerating the warming, or decelerating it. It might even throw it into reverse.

However, if it did throw it into reverse, this would very probably be a short term event, lasting perhaps for a few decades. Warming would then probably resume, perhaps very strongly.

There was significant warming in the 40s, followed by cooling, and warming didn't resume again until the late 70s. Since then, it's warmed very strongly, but you can't rule out another decades long standstill.

We don't know if these fluctuations are caused by oceanic circulation, but it's a fair bet that it contributes. The current warming is stronger over land areas, compared to SSTs.
Heatwave: Australia's new weather demands a new politics

Climate change clashes with the myth of a land where progress is limited only by the rate at which resources can be extracted

George Monbiot
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 8 January 2013 20.00 GMT

Extracts:

Australia is the world's largest exporter of coal – the most carbon intensive fossil fuel. It's also a profligate consumer. Australians now burn, on average, slightly more carbon per capita than the citizens of the United States, and more than twice as much as the people of the United Kingdom. Taking meaningful action on climate change would require a serious reassessment of the way life is lived there.

As James Hansen and colleagues showed in a paper published last year in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the occurrence of extremely hot events has risen by a factor of around 50 by comparison to the decades before 1980. Extreme summer heat, which afflicted between 0.1% and 0.2% of the world 40 years ago, now affects 10%. They warned that "an important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3σ) warmer than the climatology of the 1951–1980 base period". An extremely hot outlier is a good description of what is roasting Australia at the moment.

Read the whole article
Is very early but we can start to have the countdown towards the start of the 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane season. (Only 143 days)

Link
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
300 miles to the west lol. Looks like Southeast Texas and La. will get most of this rain even and maybe along the Texas coast.


NWS Austin/San Antonio seems to disagree in their last discussion and have made no updates. The Austin area will see rain.

Previous discussion... /issued 1054 am CST Tuesday Jan 8 2013/


Update...
the upper low continues to March east across northern Mexico late
this morning with overrunning rain...and scattered embedded
showers and thunderstorms over the southeast half of south central
Texas. The current scenario for today is for the upper levels of
the atmosphere to continue to destabilize...but the lack of focus
in the lower levels will result in mostly elevated showers and
thunderstorms through early evening. The warm front now extending
from the Lower Valley between McAllen and Brownsville will move
north into southeast sections of our County Warning Area during the overnight
hours tonight with an increased threat for severe thunderstorms as
the rich tropical moisture enhances low level instability in a
deeply sheared environment. The deeply sheared environment coupled
with rich moisture influx will also lend itself towards a continual
training of storms northward...with heavy rains resulting in
possible flash flooding over areas generally along and east of the
I-35 corridor tonight into early Wednesday. Current forecasts on
track and no significant adjustments made.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Sounds nice to me, how you doing on rainfall out there? Hurting here in Texas but I am getting drizzle again, there are some showers are storms out there but they are scattered and well away from me.


This year .12 ... Last year if I got the numbers right was 4.72 and normal is around 7.93 So, as usual a bit below, but a long ways ahead of your situation.
Quoting Levi32:


Why thank you. I'm doing well, enjoying the last week of break.

I've gotten a ton of work done. With any luck I intend to have some kind of a live model page up either later today or tomorrow. Fingers crossed.


You are going to post a link, are you not? .... I have never known you to be cruel.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Narelle is an excellent example of how helpful microwave satellite imagery is. With conventional imagery we see this:



Yes, there is a lot of deep convection, but it is difficult to determine what is underneath the CDO.

But with this recent 89 GHz pass we can see Narelle is forming an eyewall, and it has probably already formed in the mid-levels:



A forecast of rapid intensification seems more likely at this time.
Even though almost all the strongest storm in this basin don`t reach cat 5 in our scale. not even Yasi I think yasi was a upper end cat 4 from 2000 to 2013 I think only Monica had read cat 5 in our scale.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You are going to post a link, are you not? .... I have never known you to be cruel.


If I get it up I shall certainly share.
239. VR46L
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I am with you 100% on this line of thought. My shared optimism is tempered by a lack of seeing anything that could reverse the long term trends. I do no see any natural variations returning us to the pre-industrial climate on our horizon. Something catastrophic would have to happen and that may not be any better for us.


I get heart when things like the UK Met come out with what they did last night or a cool 8-14 day forecast, but I noticed that some folk poorly receive this type of information and I wonder why ...
Quoting VR46L:
I dont know , I get the distinct impression that I am labelled a denier ...tend to think its both a natural cycle and part man made and am hopeful that it may change shortly.


I think everyone except a complete sociopath would be hopeful that the system changes... unfortunately, knowing a bit of earth science and chemistry, that seems terribly unlikely to happen. Thermodynamics and the chemical patterns and existing circulation patterns don't tend toward stopping the warming we're seeing. In fact, the models indicate that if you removed the anthropogenic CO2 signal, the Earth would be tending cooler-- and yet we've several top-10 warmest years within the last two decades. That's a sign that the human-related climate signals are far outstripping the other natural processes. Yet one more reason to be pessimistic that nature will provide a miracle cure (unless you're rooting for a meteor impact or supervolcano eruption... but you'd have to be a bit of a misanthrope to want that).
Quoting VR46L:


I get heart when things like the UK Met come out with what they did last night or a cool 8-14 day forecast, but I noticed that some folk poorly receive this type of information and I wonder why ...


Because it doesn't show them what they want to see. It happens to the best of us.
Quoting schistkicker:


I think everyone except a complete sociopath would be hopeful that the system changes... unfortunately, knowing a bit of earth science and chemistry, that seems terribly unlikely to happen. Thermodynamics and the chemical patterns and existing circulation patterns don't tend toward stopping the warming we're seeing. In fact, the models indicate that if you removed the anthropogenic CO2 signal, the Earth would be tending cooler-- and yet we've several top-10 warmest years within the last two decades. That's a sign that the human-related climate signals are far outstripping the other natural processes. Yet one more reason to be pessimistic that nature will provide a miracle cure (unless you're rooting for a meteor impact or supervolcano eruption... but you'd have to be a bit of a misanthrope to want that).


A supervolcanic eruption or giant meteor isn't going to cure anything. It doesn't work that way.
243. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

A supervolcanic eruption or giant meteor isn't going to cure anything.

A complete sociopath would have to think that.


That would be a way worse scenario
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I do not read every post that has ever been posted since I became a member here, but I have not seen this to be the case.I am not going to say it has never happened here before, but I find it difficult to imagine anyone being labeled as "denier" simply for stating they were unsure as to how much of the warming is anthropogenic warming. There is usually quite a bit more information given before the word "denier" is given as a label.



Quoting yonzabam:


Nope. I don't remember anyone who questioned how much global warming might be due to greenhouse gases and how much might be due to other factors, being called a denier. It's a rational viewpoint.


Really. I have never said man has no hand in it and over on Ricky's blog whenever you question any aspect of AGWT, they label you.

Quoting VR46L:


That would be a way worse scenario


One would have to think, and I don't know anyone who would root for such a thing.

Quoting TomballTXPride:


A supervolcanic eruption or giant meteor isn't going to cure anything.


False... the cure may certainly be worse than the disease, but if you want to overwhelm the CO2 signature, that'd be one way to do it.

Otherwise, if we want geology to do it, we're going to have to wait for a new subduction zone to form and throw up a large mountain chain at temperate latitudes, so we can let chemical weathering pull atmospheric CO2 into the eroded sediments that get buried on the margin. Of course, the timescale for that sort of process is a bit problematic for us in the opposite direction...
Hi everyone. I'm in the part that has no rain on radar. Lol. Not much here yet.

It's always black or white.

Alarmist or denier. There's no middle ground. Not the way it works.
Caught this hole punch cloud day before yesterday. Spectacular cloud day.

Quoting schistkicker:


False... the cure may certainly be worse than the disease, but if you want to overwhelm the CO2 signature, that'd be one way to do it.

Otherwise, if we want geology to do it, we're going to have to wait for a new subduction zone to form and throw up a large mountain chain at temperate latitudes, so we can let chemical weathering pull atmospheric CO2 into the eroded sediments that get buried on the margin. Of course, the timescale for that sort of process is a bit problematic for us in the opposite direction...


Huh. The goal is less CO2. Right? LOL. I must not be following you...
Quoting Skyepony:
Caught this hole punch cloud day before yesterday. Spectacular cloud day.



WOW!!!!!I have never seen anything like that.

Wundergirl12
Quoting TomballTXPride:
It's always black or white.

Alarmist or denier. There's no middle ground. Not the way it works.


When one side has reams of converging data supporting its argument (including well-known and verified fields of atmospheric chemistry, physics, geology, biology, oceanography, planetary science, ecology) and the other does not, that IS kind of how it works.

See also: people who support plate tectonics vs. expanding earth; evolution vs. whatever; germ theory of disease vs. the ethers.

There are decades of measurements that indicate that the planet is warming, and that humans are a primary cause, since the other natural controls would otherwise indicate a cooling trend. On the other hand, Al Gore is a pompous guy who may or may not be a complete hypocrite. Only one of those statements has any use to a scientist.
Quoting VR46L:


I have never called anyone nuts on this forum . You dont even have to deny CC to be called a denier you just have to say you are unsure how much is man made ...


Quote Function did not work properly. I was refering to FunnelVortex posts #188 and #196.
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Huh. The goal is less CO2. Right? LOL. I must not be following you...


Clearly not.
In the geologic past, the ways the planet dealt with "excess" CO2 included dissolving it in the ocean or bonding it into the structure of minerals precipitated from water or eroding from highlands. Neither one of those happens terribly rapidly; rates are geologic and not human-timescale. Unfortunately, they really can't be sped up on a global scale without a truly catastrophic event as a trigger, either.
...
hi Grothar.. you can come out and play :)
last i checked you hold the patent for rubber and glue
Quoting Levi32:


Why thank you. I'm doing well, enjoying the last week of break.

I've gotten a ton of work done. With any luck I intend to have some kind of a live model page up either later today or tomorrow. Fingers crossed.

I can't wait!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting schistkicker:


Clearly not.
In the geologic past, the ways the planet dealt with "excess" CO2 included dissolving it in the ocean or bonding it into the structure of minerals precipitated from water or eroding from highlands. Neither one of those happens terribly rapidly; rates are geologic and not human-timescale. Unfortunately, they really can't be sped up on a global scale without a truly catastrophic event as a trigger, either.
It is hard to imagine what may have happened in the past four and a half billion years or so...Or what will happen in the next four and a half billion..Either way, I,m for less pollution and deforestation. ..Forests are the lungs of our land, purifying the air and giving fresh strength to our people..F.D.R.
"The high temperature averaged over Australia was 105°F (40.3°C), eclipsing the previous record of 104°F (40.2°C) set on 21 December 1972."

Slightly misleading, wouldn't you say? A 0.18 degree F difference does not a degree F make. But if you want to make things look completely unprecedented, round 104.36 to 104 and 104.54 to 105. Voila! 0.18 degree becomes 1 degree! I wonder if that's how climate change models are calculated.

Quoting schistkicker:


Otherwise, if we want geology to do it, we're going to have to wait for a new subduction zone to form and throw up a large mountain chain at temperate latitudes, so we can let chemical weathering pull atmospheric CO2 into the eroded sediments that get buried on the margin. Of course, the timescale for that sort of process is a bit problematic for us in the opposite direction...


Maybe we'll hopefully find different solutions in a shorter time frame?

CO₂ as alternative carbon source
From climate sinner to useful material


Some 30 billion tons of CO₂ are emitted worldwide annually. But the greenhouse gas can no longer be considered solely as a climate damaging waste, because researchers from Bayer have discovered a way of turning carbon dioxide into a useful raw material.

Oil, natural gas and coal and biomass are the traditional sources of carbon, relied on so heavily by the chemical industry. These four substances are the starting point for around 40 basic chemicals and more than 40,000 chemical products.

The problem is that fossil raw materials will run out in the not too distant future, as they are becoming increasingly expensive and a great deal of energy is needed to process them.

Now, however, it looks like a fifth source has been found that doesn't come with all these disadvantages: the ubiquitous greenhouse gas carbon dioxide could be used as a carbon source and replace some of the significant amount of oil used to manufacture plastics. To reach this goal, Bayer has initiated several projects with partners from the industry and scientific community.

Pilot plant in Leverkusen

Most advanced is “Dream Production,” an initiative to use CO₂ as the source of one of the two components needed to produce polyurethane, a foam material that is widely applied in furniture, athletic shoes or thermal insulation. And mattresses, the first application for the new raw material. The first CO2-based polyurethanes are due to come to market from the middle of this decade.

Since the beginning of 2011, Bayer MaterialScience has been manufacturing test batches of the chemical substance needed at a pilot plant in Leverkusen, Germany. The CO₂ used in this process is sourced from a power plant operated by RWE near Cologne. It is removed from the flue gas and liquefied for transportation.

Closing the carbon cycle

“This new process was made possible by a scientific breakthrough,” explains project manager Christoph Gürtler. “We finally found the suitable catalyst experts have been searching for so long.” It enables the efficient reaction of CO₂, which is normally slow to react. The partners in the alliance are confident that the new process is also ecologically viable and will ultimately even reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

In another project called CO₂rrect that extends far into the future, Bayer is taking the next step and seeking to integrate electricity from wind mills in its efforts to make use of carbon dioxide for a double sustainability effect. One goal is to convert the CO₂ into carbon monoxide, a key basic chemical that could in turn be used to produce another component for polyurethanes. This would close the carbon cycle.

Source
Here's the Melbourne, FL NWS Duel-pol radar ball sitting in the parking lot. It is so huge. Way bigger looking then sitting on it's tower. That is the building on the left. Tower getting rebuilt & higher on the right. They already redid the foundation for higher winds. They were reassembling the old tower then adding a section to get it higher than the new hanger being built right next to it at the airport. I think the ball will only be down til Thursday. They got it down this morning. Click on the pic to see the series.

Quoting Wiiilbur:
"The high temperature averaged over Australia was 105°F (40.3°C), eclipsing the previous record of 104°F (40.2°C) set on 21 December 1972."

Slightly misleading, wouldn't you say? A 0.18 degree F difference does not a degree F make. But if you want to make things look completely unprecedented, round 104.36 to 104 and 104.54 to 105. Voila! 0.18 degree becomes 1 degree! I wonder if that's how climate change models are calculated.

It's extremely common--in fact, it's standard--to round temperatures up or down to the nearest whole degree when converting Fahrenheit readings to Celsius, especially in informal instances when greater precision is required. It's also common when rounding decimals to round down anything from 0.01 to 0.49, and round up everything from 0.5 to 0.99. So Dr. Masters followed convention. Now, had he intended to mislead as you've accused him, he would have omitted the Celsius readings altogether. But since he included them--and since he didn't say "the new record was an entire degree warmer than the old record", you can accept that as pretty clear evidence that he was, as always, on the up and up.

Thanks for asking; I'm glad to be able to provide clarification.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I find it interesting that many times certain people will call NEA out and even note when he does not make a quick reply to their statements. There is as much pull technology going here as there is push technology.


I agree..
I may have sounded like I was baiting him..
It wasn't meant that way,
I've said it in 2 post reply's and I'll say it again..
I'm not taking sides here or taking Nea to task..
just speaking my views in a rationaland calm way..
I hope thats how it comes across as I mean it no other way whatsoever..
Quoting pcola57:


I agree..
I may have sounded like I was baiting him..
It wasn't meant that way,
I've said it in 2 post reply's and I'll say it again..
I'm not taking sides here or taking Nea to task..
just speaking my views in a rationaland calm way..
I hope thats how it comes across as I mean it no other way whatsoever..
Quoting nymore:





Really. I have never said man has no hand in it and over on Ricky's blog whenever you question any aspect of AGWT, they label you.



I do not ever recall labeling you as a "denier", nymore. I have, on several occasions, stated that you will sometimes mimmick those of the denial industry. I am still uncertain as to what your stance actually is. We have had some enlightening conversations between us. Yet, I have noticed that when we seem to be making progress in conversations towards what would possibly work in terms of mitigation, you go silent.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I do not ever recall labeling you as a "denier", nymore. I have, on several occasions, stated that you will sometimes mimmick those of the denial industry. I am still uncertain as to what your stance actually is. We have had some enlightening conversations between us. Yet, I have noticed that when we seem to be making progress in conversations towards what would possibly work in terms of mitigation, you go silent.


New Blog..
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's extremely common--in fact, it's standard--to round temperatures up or down to the nearest whole degree when converting Fahrenheit readings to Celsius, especially in informal instances when greater precision is required. It's also common when rounding decimals to round down anything from 0.01 to 0.49, and round up everything from 0.5 to 0.99. So Dr. Masters followed convention. Now, had he intended to mislead as you've accused him, he would have omitted the Celsius readings altogether. But since he included them--and since he didn't say "the new record was an entire degree warmer than the old record", you can accept that as pretty clear evidence that he was, as always, on the up and up.

Thanks for asking; I'm glad to be able to provide clarification.

As usual, you seem to be glad to be able to provide snark as well.
Many people will skim over the metric version simply because it isn't as familiar. Even though not strictly misleading, the reader is led to assume a degree over the previous record. This is fact.
Quoting pcola57:


I agree..
I may have sounded like I was baiting him..
It wasn't meant that way,
I've said it in 2 post reply's and I'll say it again..
I'm not taking sides here or taking Nea to task..
just speaking my views in a rationaland calm way..
I hope thats how it comes across as I mean it no other way whatsoever..


Oh, no. I was not referring to you at all in this. I was merely commenting that it is both push and pull. I was not suggesting that you were baiting NEA.
I know for some hurricane season is like a thousand years away but the gulf stream and the loop current are very warm right now.A matter of fact all the tropical Atlantic is toasty as of right now.That is one key ingredient though.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I know for some hurricane season is like a thousand years away but the gulf stream and the loop current are very warm right now.A matter of fact all the tropical Atlantic is toasty as of right now.That is one key ingredient though.


washi we're next door. new blog. but global warming blog ughhhh!!!