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Historic flooding hits Iowa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:07 PM GMT on June 13, 2008

Truly extraordinary flooding has hit the Cedar River in the town of Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Rainfall amounts in excess of 12 inches have fallen in the past ten days over the Cedar River watershed, which extends to the northwest of Cedar Rapids into southern Minnesota. The rains that fell during the weekend of June 7-8 were fueled in part by moisture from Tropical Storm Alma/Arthur, which affected Central America May 29 - June 2. The Cedar River is expected to crest today at 31.8 feet, which is an amazing 19.8 feet above the flood stage of 12 feet. During the historic 1993 flood, the worst in recent history, the river hit only 19.27 feet, 7 feet above flood stage. Nine rivers in Iowa are at all-time record flood levels, and Iowa Governor Chet Culver has declared 83 of the state's 99 counties state disaster areas. Additional heavy rainfall is not expected over the Cedar River watershed over the next two days, so today should mark the peak of this year's historic flooding.


Figure 1. Total rainfall for the period June 2 - June 12, 2008, as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite. An additional three inches fell over portions of eastern Iowa in the 24 hours since this image was created.

New way to track river flooding on wunderground
Wunderground has added a way to track local river forecast levels and assess flood risk at www.wunderground.com/wundermap/rivers. Using data from the USGS (the U.S. Geological Survey), the product plots river data and forecasts on top of our interactive "WunderMap". Users can scroll across the country and zoom in and out to view in-depth observations from all major rivers in the U.S. Alternatively, one can click an option to view only the rivers with current flood alerts. Each river observation is color coordinated to reflect its dry/wet percentile and users can click on each observation point to view data and graphs that display Flow Rate, Percentile, Current Stage, Forecast Stage and Flood Stage. Flood Alert symbols will appear on every river icon whenever a river is in danger of flooding.

The WunderMap™ also allows one to choose from a variety of layers including current conditions, animated radar, severe weather and tornado warnings, live webcam images and animated infrared or visible satellite imagery showing cloud coverage. WunderMap™ is available as a link on every U.S. forecast page, just under the small radar image.

Tornado outbreak update
The tornado that stuck the Little Sioux Scout Ranch Boy Scout camp in western Iowa Wednesday night, killing 4 and injuring 48, was rated an EF-3 on the Enhanced Fujita scale. The tornado that hit Manhattan, Kansas the same day, causing major damage at Kansas State University, has been rated an EF-4. This is the tenth violent (EF-4 or EF-5) tornado this year, the most number of violent tornadoes since 13 were observed in 1999.

The Storm Prediction Center is calling for a "Slight" risk of severe weather across the Midwest today, from Michigan to Oklahoma. We can expect a few more tornadoes today in the affected region, although the primary severe weather threat will be damaging thunderstorm winds and large hail. The "Slight" risk of severe weather continues Saturday and Sunday across a large portion of the Midwest.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropics. There is some disorganized thunderstorm activity in the southern Gulf of Mexico associated with a surface trough of low pressure, but this activity is not likely to develop. None of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters
Sandbagging
Sandbagging
Great volunteer work on sandbagging in Coralville
Flooding in Coralville
Flooding in Coralville
Roads closed and houses evacuated; today multiplied both of these with floodwaters still rising and more rain coming.
Mammatus Clouds at Sunset
Mammatus Clouds at Sunset

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

tampa, do you have an IR of that image of at least the WV closeup?
Actually, I was wrong. According to this the SSTs are plenty warm in its path.

weather, its all a guessing game in here. Until it gets named or does something impressive. its just a guessin game.
extreme, The Carib looks like its ready to pop with something. Any models hinting on development in there this week?
And when Felix weakened to a cat 3 he said there was no way it would become a cat 5 as it was arriving near the coast.

But I do realize people are wrong and I could point out numerous times I was wrong also. Thats why I try to point out potential rather than say "yes it will" or "no it won't"
497. eye 11:27 AM EDT on June 15, 2008
if it is mid July the wave would be good to go, but it is mid June, and due to the lower than normal SSTs in the mid Atlantic, any impressive wave coming off now will struggle once it hits the those SSTs.


Actually i disaggree with this post.....SST's are slightly above average in that area and can support development with the current SST's.

506. I agree with that post but I don't quite like that map. I don't think it really shows the correct anomalies because it shows a huge area of below-normal SSTs when there is more above-normal SSTs than that.
any link to a models page?
508. extreme236 11:37 AM EDT on June 15, 2008

Extreme their is very little difference between the 2 maps.....you sure your not JP.....lol
Models

Link
Spin may be starting to form on the east side of the wave behind the convection.. New baby T-Storms starting to form in that area too (can barely see them, like little seeds)

Link
Morning all :~)

Happy Fathers day to all the dads out there!

Good to see ya pwsn, several model pages
I am impressed with the structure on WV. Click the pic to go to the loop of the last ~3 days.

Ah I see why there so different...my map uses a different scale and has more colors to give it that appearance that it is more above normal than your map. Sorry about that.
514. Its the remains of Karen.
LOL.
Seriously, it kinda looks like Debby from '06.
Looks like DMIN is effecting it some in terms of convective activity. Completely normal.
Same to ya StormJ, good to see all. Though the hurricane season as its starting to become is not the reason I would want to see all the ole bloggers coming back in.
515. extreme236 11:43 AM EDT on June 15, 2008
Ah I see why there so different...my map uses a different scale and has more colors to give it that appearance that it is more above normal than your map. Sorry about that.


Thats ok i got messed up on that once before...lol...gotta go have a good one.
the spin to the NW of the system, will that affect development in anyway?
502. extreme236 10:30 AM CDT on June 15, 2008
Actually, I was wrong. According to this the SSTs are plenty warm in its path.


It might be better to use this map instead if you are only showing the Atlantic, since it shows temperatures in 1 degree intervals instead of 2 degree intervals (the anomaly map is the same):

Still say this is the area to watch more local of concern.

I hear ya pwsn, unfortunately we can't get away from it. Season™ is what brings us together every year.

Off to get some dinner, see y'all later :~)
tampa, like I said something in the caribbean is getting ready to pop. Give it time and it will do just that. Something is going to form, and get this blog going nuclear soon.
dinner??!! what time is it where you are.
Plywood...ETA of the pop?
if I knew that I would have dug a hole and jumped in it by now.
I have a road trip planned in two weeks and don't need it popping then.
One of the biggest things inhibiting development is its quick movement. Might remind some of the people who were here last year of that one 99L that moved from the Antilles through the Caribbean ultimately teasing us for 2-3 days. Although, technically it developed right before land as sfc obs indicated a closed sfc circulation but thats besides the point.
So you think it will continue to be a fast mover? Nothing to really slow it down right now?
530. Well it will likely stay at a brisk speed of 15-20 mph or so, maybe a tad faster. Most African waves move fast until they get farther west but this one is moving a bit faster than most do.
Happy Fathers Day to Ya'll!

Happy Father's Day, dads! :)
Nice tropical wave to the South of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite imagery indicated the wave is exhibiting broad cyclonic turning as it moves quickly to the west. Will monitor this area for tropical cyclone development as an upper level anticyclone has developed over the system bringing 5-10 knots of vertical wind shear and favorable Sea-surface temperatures. This morning's quicksat suggested the wave is already producing winds of tropical depression strength.

make avatar
blue, I am going to be in the carib during the heart of the season.

Patrap, same to you.

What is the movement in the basin right now, as well as what happened to our blob near the BOC?
536. eye
As the good Dr said a week or so ago, the mid Atlantic is slightly below normal in SSTs. Of all the graphs I have seen posted, the one that the Dr. uses hasnt been. The SSTs are not "plenty" warm in the mid atlantic, if they were, then the June tropical formation area would be all the way out to Africa....it isnt because there is usually shear and the SSTs are not supportive for development. I am almost sure that that if imagies show the mid atlantic SSTs support system formation, it is very very very shallow. If it did support develop, the many impressive waves would of developed. Even this one is loosing its convection.
eye, its in the diurnal min. i would expect it to do that/
529. extreme236 12:06 PM AST on June 15, 2008

When I evaluate TC formation possibility I look at the inhibiting factors.

Within 500 km of the ITCZ or other convective disturbance.
Within 10 degrees of the Equator
No substantial evidence of a LLCC

Despite, this, it has persisted for than 24 hrs relative to the diurnal variation, high SSTs, humidity and low wind shear.

All this place it within pre-genesis stage and it should be monitored for increase organization over the next 48 hrs.

But damn goodness, what an impressive wave! The DMIN is nearing peak....sunset Cape Verde Time which is 3 pm EDT/AST



539. IKE
Latest 12Z GFS has the eastern Atlantic wave in the Caribbean in 126 hours...around and south of PR and DR/Haiti...

Link
Happy Father's Day to the Dads at the NhC and NWS
whats hop we dont get any thing in the gulf any tme soon what the low wind shear we got out there in the gulf with in the past few days wish i dont no why i think i sould be a little higher this look at the 2 loop eddys and that one big one

Ike, as what may I ask. If its able to survive that long, with the temps in the caribbean what would we be talking about then.
Taz, Ike was talking it would be around either of those two loop eddys out there. I hate to think about that.
The wave has shown the potential to consolidate the convection which showed up well on this mornings AVN and satellite imagery. Will see what happens. I give it a 10% chance to develop into a tropical depression.
534. 538. Nice updates on that strong twave, gentlemen. Thanks.
546. IKE
542. plywoodstatenative 11:27 AM CDT on June 15, 2008
Ike, as what may I ask. If its able to survive that long, with the temps in the caribbean what would we be talking about then.


Not sure....best to keep watching it...

The 00Z ECMWF has what appears to be another system behind this one cruising through the Caribbean that's even stronger......

Link
drak, you giving it a percentage usually means that it will. I do not remember many storms that you have percentaged that have not formed.
545. moonlightcowboy 4:29 PM GMT on June 15, 2008
534. 538. Nice updates on that strong twave, gentlemen. Thanks.


No problem. I put together that animation since we can't access RAMSDIS loops.
536. Eye its Dmin out there right now as well, so that is why convection is decreasing.
Blue, you were asking me about when the carib was going to pop. The way the models are waking up, I would say soon.
extreme, you read the mind again.
534. Drakoen 4:16 PM GMT on June 15, 2008


Horrifying to know the waves are this impressive, Come July...i don't want to know what happens to these waves.
I just think this wave confirms most people's thoughts on the upcoming season...its looking like an active CV season.
549. extreme236 12:32 PM AST on June 15, 2008

Why bother explain to him...he's just gonna find something else to comment about.
541. Hey, Taz. I saw that eddy spinning off the loop current last week. When I saw it, it hadn't fully broken loose. Yep, that adds to problems with GOM storms. Nice post. There's also a couple more eddys spinning around in the BOC and cGOM, too. Here's another look:

Photobucket
554. Good point. I can't let him get to me like last year.
Do we have any idea what steering currents are setting up to be this year?
552. CaneAddict 4:36 PM GMT on June 15, 2008
534. Drakoen 4:16 PM GMT on June 15, 2008


Horrifying to know the waves are this impressive, Come July...i don't want to know what happens to these waves.


It wouldn't surprise me to see multiple successive waves in the CATL come July-August-September.
553. extreme236 12:37 PM AST on June 15, 2008
I just think this wave confirms most people's thoughts on the upcoming season...its looking like an active CV season.


I was confirmed in May...this is just writing it in stone...lol
I haven't seen anyone mention this, but there's a large area of dry air (subsidence), to the north and west of this wave...



But yes...very impressive wave (and holding it's convection together, for now)
hi moon
That dry air doesn't look to bad IMO
564. IKE
556. extreme236 11:40 AM CDT on June 15, 2008
554. Good point. I can't let him get to me like last year.


Good luck. LOL.
well I see this wave has woken up the bloggin community. Good morning to all the regulars that are popping in here.
If it doesn't develop before 35W it probably won't stand a chance with all that dry air.
561. stormdude77 12:43 PM AST on June 15, 2008

Yeah, that is true....but remember, dry air is not fixed, we'll have too see what it looks like in 4 days time. Remember how quickly the Caribbean moisten up during Alma-Arthur. Bot saying it might in this case, but water vapor is rather an operational tool.
566. I agree. Unless something changes with that dry air it would have to develop before then. If it does develop then it won't be as bad and it would probably do what Dean did when he got near dry air.
564. IKE 4:46 PM GMT on June 15, 2008
556. extreme236 11:40 AM CDT on June 15, 2008
554. Good point. I can't let him get to me like last year.

Good luck. LOL.


Ignore list is the easiest solution.
appears to be some type of frontal system sweeping down, any chance of it sweeping up the dry air like a broom into the dust pan?
561. Good point, too. It'll need to ride at low latitude like it is, until about 40,45w. From there a little gain in lat. The ICTZ area in front of twave(GOES water vapor loop) is providing some moisture west of it.

Not much dust. LINK Dust is fairly thin. EUMETSAT loop.
571. JFV 4:59 PM GMT on June 15, 2008
Good Sunday afternoon and Happy Father's Day to all of the fathers in here, including myself who just recently found out is going to be a father himself, but anyways, that's clearly besides the point here. So Drak, is this latest well-defined tropical low yet another indicator of a potentially super hyper and dangerous Cape Verde Season to come my friend?


I don't know about "super hyper" but it looks to be an active Cape Verde season if the waves can continue to maintain their aggression or perhaps even get stronger to the point of genesis 12-24hrs after exiting the coast. One thing I have noticed is that the 27 degree isotherm has been lifting northward of the African coast which is probably the reason why this wave is/was able to maintain the heavy convection seen on earlier AVN and rainbow imagery.
Yeah, the somewhat cooler SST's have even warmed in the wATL. SST's won't be an inhibitor I don't think. For this twave it's gonna be latitude and organized convection with a closed low level center developing. When it gets out to about 40, we can tell then, I think, if it's going to be a player. Let's see how much convection it holds during the rest of the day, too.
577. eye
this time Monday the wave will have lost most of its convection, like all previous impressive waves. The last one to become invest refired close to the islands (SSTs warmer) but then got blown apart by shear.

I know this is the only game in town, but forcasting developing off Africa in June is a bit of a stretch for anyone.

Lets see what the good Dr says about this wave on Monday.......

The warm SSTs temps on all the graphs in the mid Atlantic, it is very shallow and the cooler waters would easily come back up to the top. It gives the false appearance that the SSTs are suppportive for systems. (this is why the area isnt considered for development until late July and beyond)
bump
Hey, JFV, thanks. Proud dad of two! Good to see you!

This twave may be the only game in town right now, but admittedly, it's fairly impressive!
...weak vorticity in the present. Better vorticity presence out in front of the twave.



TROPIC-wide 850mb VORTICITY
JP, it says June 15th?
580. moonlightcowboy 1:14 PM AST on June 15, 2008

Thats no suprise...I have notice much of the spin is the lower-mid levels on sat images.
581. No time to panic, but preparedness is the key. Still time to do that, but plans need to be getting to fruition. Mid-July, I'm thinking this thing is gonna bust open!
580...1200 UTC
583...1500 UTC
586. Thanks, I didn't bother to look at times. Rarely do with vorticity, but thanks for pointing that out! :)
Happy Fathers Day everyone. My girls brought me donuts and juice. LOL
OPPPS .....

I didn't get my father anything ....

i forgot lol
thanks JFV


Now, that's a lil better! ;P Dang, swCarib may become a player?

JP, try this width=540 height=480 before alt in your string and your pics won't stretch.
ah....there are a number of highly unusual red bloblettes showing on radar to be moving toward Charleston...I'm not sure what they are...they seem vaguely familiar....but I just don't recall exactly what they portend....
I Flew From New York Yesterday to West Palm Beach ( Fla) ... West palm beach is my home area

My Flight was Schedualled to take off at 2:45 Pm and it finally took off at 6:40pm Because of Cargo Issues and The Weather ....Landed at 9:)0 Pm

When we took off .... it was really turblent ....

We were climbing fast in the thunder storm , Turblent weather .....

and everyone was scared on bored

.............

Either Way i arived at home at 10:00 Pm ....

And i Woke up today AT 12:00 Pm .... So i must have been really tired


Afternoon, Press! Happy Father's day! ....uuuuummm, red bloblettes, erra, can be serious! ;P
mlc...Happy father's Day back at ya...and to all...someone at mass mentioned the word "rain'...Im not familiar with this word...but we'll see....
582. JFV 5:17 PM GMT on June 15, 2008
Hey Taz, Happy Father's day to you sir!
Action: | Ignore User


Taz is'nt a fatherrr.
From the 2:00pm discussion...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AND IS
ANALYZED ALONG 18W S OF 12N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST AT AN
ESTIMATED SPEED OF 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST N OF 10N EAST OF 35W PREVENTING
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS WAVE.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ IS MASKING
ANY DISTINCT SATELLITE SIGNATURE. HOWEVER MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY
INDICATES A MOISTURE SURGE E OF 20W. POSITION IS BASED ON THIS
MOISTURE SURGE AND NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS.
hey sammy, my mom just flew into west palm on wed. and same thing, she got sick and everyone was scared to death from turbulence...
The NHC's position of the wave axis is much further east than I had originally thought...
601. JFV 5:45 PM GMT on June 15, 2008
Good Sunday afternoon and Happy Father's Day to all of the fathers in here, including myself who just recently found out is going to be a father himself, but anyways, that's clearly besides the point here. So CaneAddict, is this latest well-defined tropical low yet another indicator of a potentially super hyper and dangerous Cape Verde Season to come my friend?



I mentioned earlier i am truly horrified at how impressive these waves are looking, It's mid June and we have waves looking like Late July and August waves, This wave is demonstrating very impressive cyclonic turning in the mid-lower levels and convection has managed to persist for more than 24 hours despite the Diurnal phases. I do not even want to go into thinking of what the Cape Verde season will be like but i can say one thing, It will not be pretty and possibly a record breaking cape verde season. The way the A/B high is setting up, it would appear that we would have several long-track cape verde systems. So to answer your question, I believe we are in for a very active and possibly horrifying cape-verde season.

(I would be more descriptive and all but my wrist is starting to ache again and i'm not even supposed to be typing for long-periods of time, I going on my third surgery) Anyway i hope this helped :-)!
I'm trying to decide if i want to stay in west palm for 10 days in august or go to summer house in Mass. with husband...can't really afford to go but I would sure hate to try boarding up the house by myself if we got a CV storm...who knows though, a storm could even crawl up the eastern seaboard this year too..hmmm
2pm TWO

ABNT20 KNHC 151722
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
604. Drakoen 1:53 PM AST on June 15, 2008
The NHC's position of the wave axis is much further east than I had originally thought...


the 2pm TWD is based on 12Z Surface analysis which was 6 hrs ago.
608. Haha. So, what you guys, you and Drak, are giving us is actually more current. There you have it folks! Good job, fellas!
here is what the nhc has to say at 2:05pm


TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AND IS
ANALYZED ALONG 18W S OF 12N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST AT AN
ESTIMATED SPEED OF 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST N OF 10N EAST OF 35W PREVENTING
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS WAVE. THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ IS MASKING
ANY DISTINCT SATELLITE SIGNATURE. HOWEVER MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY
INDICATES A MOISTURE SURGE E OF 20W. POSITION IS BASED ON THIS
MOISTURE SURGE AND NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. A
CLASSIC INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED EAST OF
THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE IS MOVING UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT...THUS
DEEP CONVECTION IS INHIBITED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 75W FROM SE CUBA TO
COLOMBIA MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BUOY
OBSERVATION DISPLAYS THE EXPECTED E TO SE WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE
AXIS. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING CONTINUES ALONG THE COLOMBIAN
COAST. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS AHEAD OF THE
AXIS TO 78W BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA
608. Weather456 6:05 PM GMT on June 15, 2008
604. Drakoen 1:53 PM AST on June 15, 2008
The NHC's position of the wave axis is much further east than I had originally thought...

the 2pm TWD is based on 12Z Surface analysis which was 6 hrs ago.


I know that but still I would expect that axis to be a tad further to the west.
Special Weather Statement
Statement as of 2:09 PM EDT on June 15, 2008
... Strong thunderstorms will impact Berkeley County... Dorchester
County... Colleton County... Charleston County and Beaufort County
through 330 PM EDT...

At 206 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
line of strong thunderstorms capable of producing pea size hail... and
gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph. These storms were located along a line
extending from charity to Wiggins... or along a line extending from 15
miles east of Goose Creek to 15 miles east of Yemassee... moving east
at 11 mph.

Areas in and around Adams Run... Charleston... Daniel Island... Edisto
Island... Hanahan... Hollywood... James and Johns islands... Mount
Pleasant... North Charleston... Ravenel... Sullivans Island... Wadmalaw
Island... west Ashley... Yonges Island and Isle of Palms will be
impacted through 330 PM EDT.

Frequent lightning is occurring with these thunderstorms. If
outdoors... stay away from isolated high objects. If indoors... stay
away from windows and doors. Avoid using telephones unless it is an
emergency.
Photobucket

Hey, I just don't see a big dust problem at all. We've seen development in considerably worse. Of course, I'm not saying this twave has a chance, particularly, but the dust here is not that big of a problem imo.
615. ATS3
if there lotsa dust it's a bust
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST AND IS
ANALYZED ALONG 18W S OF 12N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST AT AN
ESTIMATED SPEED OF 10-15 KT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD AREA OF AFRICAN DUST N OF 10N EAST OF 35W PREVENTING
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS WAVE.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ IS MASKING
ANY DISTINCT SATELLITE SIGNATURE. HOWEVER MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY
INDICATES A MOISTURE SURGE E OF 20W. POSITION IS BASED ON THIS
MOISTURE SURGE AND NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS.


Translation: signs of wave like patterns is being prevented by dust.
how is wind shear in that area?
601. JFV 5:45 PM GMT on June 15, 2008
Good Sunday afternoon and Happy Father's Day to all of the fathers in here, including myself who just recently found out is going to be a father himself, but anyways, that's clearly besides the point here. So CaneAddict, is this latest well-defined tropical low yet another indicator of a potentially super hyper and dangerous Cape Verde Season to come my friend?


Congrats!
617. KrazyKaneLove 2:35 PM AST on June 15, 2008
how is wind shear in that area?


5-10 knots due to an upper anticyclone overhead.
Press, I would be just fine if that line sat over Johns Island for the next two hours, my yard looks like crap.
jholme....I'm on my boat at Buzzard's Roost Marina...( I refuse to call it St. Johns Yacht Harbor)...love the rain...the lightening...well...not so much...
619. thanks, well I guess we'll just have to wait and see...I hate the waiting but something tells me this is all the lull before the "storm"..pardon the pun
CAPPING INVERSION HAS ESSENTIALLY BEEN REMOVED OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE WATCH

un oh
This map is centered on 8N/25W, out ahead of the wave, showing winds, SSTs and SLP. GOES 12 images are not available at useable resolutions east of 30W.

2:15pm EDT

i hear alot about caps over the atmosphere...what excatly is it and what causes them is it like pockets of high pressure in the upper levels?
Ship's pressure readings

I think it has an eye....
batten down the hatches, get the troll removal tools ready. Its about ta get interesting in here
626. louisianaboy444 6:51 PM GMT on June 15, 2008
i hear alot about caps over the atmosphere...what excatly is it and what causes them is it like pockets of high pressure in the upper levels?


A cap prevents lifting within the atmosphere. Typically the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. SAL can be described as a cap since it is stable air aloft the prevents convective currents from forming. You low level convergence where air comes together at the surface but with a cap there is no mid to upper level divergence due to the stability. Dry air advection, subsidence, atmospheric cooling overland can cause a cap.
where is that INVEST PAGE where it shows you all the pass INVEST and new INVEST wish could be comeing soon
why the sudden blowup? as well as the shift eastward in location.
635. 0741
hi all happy father day that wave in mid of atlantic look very heathy for mild june wave i hope this not saying when Cape Verde Season start we getting train of strom from afica it look like spin with those wave
i think we may have 92L by some time late monday if this wave where to keep going like this
Louisiana Thanks for asking that....and thanks to Drak for answering.....
Latest Tropical Wave Visible (Source: Penn State 2008)
It takes a lot for the NHC to tag an invest out in the EATL especially if it is not a climatologically favored area.
Press, I haven't been down to buzzards roost since they started rebuilding the docks. How do they look?
anyone got an avn of the area. or at least something to say what type of moisture enviroment its entering?
This worries me right now. This tropical wave will be under 5 to 10 knot shear the entire way crossing the Atlantic until it reaches the Eastern Caribbean, where shear continues to decrease. This tropical wave bares very close monitoring.
WOW there is a new PDS severe t-storm watch this is the 1st time i have evere seen 2 PDS severe t-storm watch on the same day


Link
jholme....they look expensive...

Drak...Isn't tagging an invest pretty subjective?
cchs, I agree with you. they were talking, at least the NHC was, about an early season hurricane for the South Florida area. This bears watching because of the forecast ahead of it. They also had some models forecasting this storm into the caribbean in 126 hrs just south of Puerto Rico. Look at the SSt's in the carib and the way that the wave will be traveling.
Happy Father's Day

Wow Drak, that wave looks impressive on the loop.
Ya know saying Happy Fathers day in tune with this system forming. Its Happy Father's day for mother nature, as her baby is forming so to speak. But for us, not so happy.
644. presslord 7:06 PM GMT on June 15, 2008
jholme....they look expensive...

Drak...Isn't tagging an invest pretty subjective?


Yea...
2nd PDS of the day



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 542
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...LARGE HAIL
TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE
IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF JOPLIN MISSOURI TO 60 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FORT
LEONARD WOOD MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 537...WW 539...WW
540...WW 541...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE MCS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP S/SEWD ACROSS ERN
KS/WRN MO. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN
WARM SECTOR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER
WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32030.




URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
910 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 910 AM UNTIL 500
PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

EXTREMELY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...LARGE HAIL
TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST OF
SALINA KANSAS TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 536...WW 537...WW 538...

DISCUSSION...RAPIDLY INCREASING SEVERE TSTMS SERN NEB WILL EVOLVE
INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO THE WATCH. WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND DRY MID LEVELS COUPLED WITH MUCAPE RISING TO AOA 3000
J/KG...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR VERY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 80
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31035.
Good Sunday afternoon and Happy Father's Day to all of the fathers in here, including myself who just recently found out is going to be a father himself

Congrats. FYI: your blog time is about to be exponentially reduced!!! ;-)
Drak...Isn't tagging an invest pretty subjective?

Its both subjective and objective. An invest like a TC has a criterion. But an invest criterion is much broader, thats why some of the worst systems out there are tagged Invests.
Looks like some convection may be reforming with the wave. Were also going to lose visible as it's sunset now over there.
my understanding is that 'invest' indicates level of interest...and is not connected necessarily to level of development....
Recent reports show that water temperatures are above 80F around 84F where most of the convection is occurring. Lowest pressure recording is 1008mb...
655. 0741
other thing to look at those need move more nw their little too far south their run into south america key will be to move more nw
Right now wind shear is favorable in the systems path all the way to the Eastern Caribbean assuming it doesn't go too far north.
653. presslord 3:13 PM AST on June 15, 2008
my understanding is that 'invest' indicates level of interest...and is not connected necessarily to level of development....


Yes that is true.
Just got back inside. Looks like NHC not real concerned about the BIG wave???
extreme, have a look at this link

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-rb.html

huge blow up of convection in past few hours
This wave is looking less impressive to me as the day goes by and looking more linear like the ITCZ. We'll see what happens in diurnal maximum.
nhc's water vapor loop is down. however the avn shows a nice darkened area in the "center" of the storm. not calling it the center so to speak, but geometerically it is.
660. JFV 7:18 PM GMT on June 15, 2008
Thanks Atm! Your absolutely right; therefore, let me take full advantage of the free time that I currently have for the time being, wouldn't you agree? I'll see you all of you guys pictures of the baby when it's born! By teh way, what are your trains of thoughts on the absolutely exceptionally potent tropical wave/low in the Eastern Atlantic this afternoon?


You don't know the baby's sex?
Plywood, I think that is an old image.
665. 0741
658. blueranch1 7:16 PM GMT on June 15, 2008
Just got back inside. Looks like NHC
it not time for this type system their not sorry other thing it little far south
okay, the wood replacement here is going to go get dinner. be back on here later.
I don't think it looks too linear IMO, but it does look less impressive than this morning. We will have to see what Dmax brings.
Thanks 0741
659. Plywood State..

Thats from over 12 hours ago..

Here. This is the actual site.. It updates every hour.

EUMETSAT 0 degrees Lat.
I've got wind...I've got lightening...I've got thunder...but I can't seem to buy a drop of rain...also have a manatee trying to crawl aboard at the stern....but he's on his own I'm afraid...really bad breath....
667. extreme236 3:23 PM AST on June 15, 2008

I agree...its less impressive but not too linear.

BBL
JFV...if you're expecting, my advice is: SLEEP!!!!!!! 'cause soon enough, that'll just be a distant memory...
by the way we now have a new all time RECORD of the most PDS severe t-storm watch in one day and that # is 2
You've got a really nice spin now.. lacking convection.

CLICK FOR LINK AND LOOP:
676. eye
I agree with Drak, compared to yesterday, this wave has lost its impressiveness (as every wave that has exited Africa so far has). We also had impressive waves last year and the year before come off in June and they did they same thing, it isnt unusual (at least in recent years) and doesnt mean there is going to be a bad Cape Verde season.
By tomorrow the wave will be viewable on the SSD CATL imagery.
Referring back to the image posted by weathersp, here are some quick observations we could all most likely agree to.
1) There is a well-defined circulation center.
2) Shear will remain favorable throughout its journey across the Atlantic.
3) There is some impressive outflow occuring with the tropical wave.
4) We will need to wait for Diurnal Maximum to see whether or not this will become an organized tropical system.
5) It has become far less impressive in terms of convection than this morning, but the structure has become better defined.
Still very interesting looking. Probably makes this look more impressive than this really is though. Link
682. 0741
people here i know it look good now that wave out their one reason why nhc not worry is one it far south this could gave rain to south america if donot move north and not time of season for this type system
cchs...while I think you summed it up nicely...you'd be pretty hard pressed to get everyone here to even agree that it's Sunday.....
683. Well its Monday in Guam lol
Didn't u already give that opinion 0741?
679.cchs
All points are correct and are marginal +'s for development. Only time can tell. Also wanted to ad that SST's are marginally favorable (well it is only June, haven't gone past the solstice yet.) too.
Hey guys. Just popping in for a sec to say Happy Fathers Day. Not much going on out there, yet.
LOL....See?!?!?!
I don't see a well-defined circulation center...
you no with the vary low wind shear in the gulf right now and with the loop eddys in the gulf and if any thing got vary strong vary fast and if wind shear did not go up some be for land fall you no it could make land fall at vary strong cat 4 or cat 5 storm ????
Afternoon everyone. Happy Fathers day.

Impressive wave out in the CATL! Although after looking at loops it looks like it's lost convection and overall organization. Compare this image from earlier today to this more recent one. None of the models develop this but some (CMC/GFS mainly) show it briefly closing off an isobar as it heads out to sea. The GFS has the wave riding along the ITCZ into South America and develops several low pressure centers in the area as it progresses westward. It's the only real thing out there and its definitely something to watch.

Is there a QS scan for this yet? it looks like it probably has an llc.
JFV...I used to have two wonderful, loving, delightful children who adored me...

today, alas, I live with two dark demonic creatures who abide me only to the extent that they view me as a human ATM...some describe them as 'teenagers'.....
very well define wave with an obvius circulation and warm waters and low wind shear ahead, so I think this system will become 92L.
yup....Congrats! Welcome to parenthood.....
698. 0741
679. cchsweatherman 7:33 PM GMT on June 15, 2008
Referring back to the image posted by weathersp, here are some quick observations we could all most likely agree to.
1) There is a well-defined circulation center.
2) Shear will remain favorable throughout its journey across the Atlantic.
3) There is some impressive outflow occuring with the tropical wave.
4) We will need to wait for Diurnal Maximum to see whether or not this will become an organized tropical system.
5) It has become far less impressive in terms of convection than this morning, but the structure has become better defined.

look at it not favorable for central atlantic or over atlantic it wont be untill late july this wave go poof by time it get carribbean
698. If I'm correct thats the MJO, but that doesnt have to be favorable for development to occur.
not meaning this in a negative way at all 0741 but are you still trying to learn English i was asking because i'm on a program right now because i'm trying to learn french and spanish and i can tell your English is kinda rough so i was just asking :)
I used to have two wonderful, loving, delightful children who adored me...
today, alas, I live with two dark demonic creatures who abide me only to the extent that they view me as a human ATM...some describe them as 'teenagers'.....
(Presslord)

That's very good...Best of luck to you and your wife JFV. And congrats to all of the dads out there!
It's trying to rain here just south of Daytona...(I've weeded and planted today!) But so far it's 'much ado about nothing...'
wind shear is vary favorable right now its olny 5 to 10kt may be this a little higher carribbean


i dont care on what the maps says but the olny maps i look at is the wind shear maps
Well Taz you can have favorable wind shear near Greenland but without the SSTs it doesn't matter much.
Everyone, its DMIN, its suppose to happen. This is only one hour after the Max DMIN.
705. I agree completely. Now if it doesn't start gaining convection over the next 12 hours or so then it's potential is not very good.
Don't know what an "overnight blogger" is...With a baby, be prepared to be an "all night blogger!" Sometimes they follow their own sleeping patterns (like sleep all day stay up at night!)
Anyhow, I'm one of those people who doesn't get the technical stuff except to know that low shear, warm water, low dust/dry air (or moist air) incubates storm systems.
happy fathers day to all the fathers in this interesting blog and have a nice day with the rest of your family.!!
707. I think they might declare it an Invest, then again, its June 15th, not September 10th. The season started 14 days ago, but we already had a storm. Id say it might turn into something, I wouldn't go as far and say a Hurricane, but at least and Invest, at most a Tropical Storm, a weak one. There is Dry air, and some shear, Strong and moist tropical waves tend to one at a time dissipate all that dry air.
AS I PREDICTED, 91L HAS EXPIRED WITHOUT REACHING TROPICAL STORM STATUS. HOWEVER, THIS YEAR IS LIKELY TO BE AN ACTIVE ONE, PARTICULARLY FOR THE GOM.

SHEAR IS IN A DOWNWARD TREND, BUT STILL TOo HIGH AND TOO MUCH DRY AIR AND DUST OFF AFRICA TO PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. WE CAN EXPECT BERTHA APPROXIMATELY JULY 10.

ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD STAY TUNED. MY WEATHER OFFICE WILL POST UDATED INFO 24/7 AS SITUATIONS WARRANT.

//FORECASTER//STROMTOP
Stromcaps shear isn't too high and there isn't too much dust. Open your eyes.
MODIS Aqua captures EATL Wave

Oh now its July 23rd...the most recent SK model output showed July 2nd.
Chicklet: Shame on you! You made me destroy my new computer by spewing carbonic acid...diet Coke...all over my screen. Maybe I can clean it up before it does permanent damage. Good luck Chicklet.
Night has fallen over this area...diurnal max should be occuring within the next several hours as energy collected by the surface/water is released into the atmosphere (this is how it works, correct?). It will be very interesting to see what this looks like come tomorrow. The way I see it, there are equal chances of it fizzling or regaining convection. It has a lot of dry air to deal with if it wants to move into the CATL...WV.

Wave near peak organization - 1520 UTC this morning...MODIS AQUA



Just popping in to say Happy Father's Day and I see that things are quiet in the tropics right now (now back to the food and drink).......
nice pictures Weather456, that's a developing tropical system without a doubt.
Max says:
Get you own ice!
http://www.local10.com/mayfieldblog/index.html%20/index.html

Sorrow and gratitude for those fathers who have lost sons or daughters, especially in war.
Flooding - it isn't just in Iowa and it isn't just affecting Cedar Rapids. Here is an excerpt from my sisters attempt to return home this weekend in Wisconsin.

"I went up to visit my friends near Eau Claire this past week and came home yesterday. The drive that normally taks 4 hours took me nearly 6. I-94 was shut down at the Wisconsin Dells, so I had to detour around the Dells. Then Hwy 33 was shut down in Portage, so I had to find a way around that. I finally got onto Hwy. 60 and thought I had a straight shot home, until I came to Columbus, where Hwy. 60 was completely underwater. Once again, I had to find a way around. Thank God I recently purchased a TomTom GPS for my car...it really worked out great! So many flooded farm fields. Its going to be a long time before things dry out."

My cousin who live on I-80 (well next to it) between Iowa City and Des Moines says it is very strange to see no traffic. The Cedar River cut I-80 off and traffic on this major national artery was detoured north to US20.

Arguably this persistent rain has caused problems at least on the order of Katrina if you add up the states and people affected. Unlike Katrina this one will likely hit all of us with a double whammy, higher fuel prices and higher food prices because the corn crop will be down. If the fields don't dry out and nitrogen isn't added again the crop may be meager.

You can see the COC on that visible satellite pic in middle of the image. Once DMAX hits that area could fill in a bit.
724. Ugh! And, very pertinent points made, too. Thanks for the update of the situation.
JFV,
What are your thoughts on the wave?
Evening all. Happy Father's Day to all the dads, and dads to be...

So the buzz is now about the wave off Africa. Does look impressive. Will stay tuned.

Maybe a silly question...but I guess here is the place to ask...

Where would one go to begin basic Meterology studies? I have checked the local Jr. Colleges and nothing is offered. Send some thoughts, maybe?

Oh, recital went beautifully and "the Princess" got to be at the ball, lol.
Happy Dad's Day To All! Our local TV mets are forcasting heavy rains for my area (West Palm Beach) pretty much for the entire week. Is this because of a change in the sea breeze pattern that will bring the storms from west to east or something else?
Just took a look at the NHC East Atlantic loop...wave looks pretty ragged on there.
731. GeoffreyWPB 10:34 PM GMT on June 15, 2008 Hide this comment.
Just took a look at the NHC East Atlantic loop...wave looks pretty ragged on there.


Its due to DMIN, let it rebound tonight. Also, it is not very ragged, compared to other waves, its holding its convection well, I am honestly impressed, It should be declared an Invest. Its met the criteria
Great Answer JFV your insight is appreciated.
I am just going by the crappy NHC loop. If there is a better Sat. loop to look at, I would love to add it to my favorites.
735. 0741
that wave getting ready go poof soon it not time of season yet
howdy, folks! what the latest on the african wave? (i've been out on the water all day)
JFV...darnit! i was hoping shear would have taken care of it by now...looks like it could get serious!
741. eye
i read that the food prices might temp increase due to the flood, but then other, cheaper, imports will take the place of what was lost.


Doesnt the gov subsidize(sp) that industry no mater how good or bad the crop is? I thought i read that somewhere also. They actually have an incentive to produce less due to this.

I dont follow how fuel prices will be affected by the flood, last time i checked, no refinaries in Iowa.
Evening Pearland..Wave currently looking pretty ragged...but we will see what morning brings. Taking into consideration as a whole what the blog is saying....it will not be an issue this time tomorrow.
744. eye
it is looking ragged because the SST are marginal at best for development....all this season they come off, look great right off Africa where the ssts are 2-3 degrees higher than normal, then they get toward the mid atlantic where they are slightly lower than normal, factor that in plus dry air and shear and you have a poof
Thank you eye...good, simple explanation. I really believe...although I am not an expert...this will not be an issue tomorrow as we chat at the same time....As to a previous ? I asked, why are our local mets (So. Fla.) predicting some heavy rains pretty much all this week?
So why isn't the blob an invest I mean it already looks more impressive than Andrea and Lee shear is low and there isn't any extremely dry air in the area
Hey, Geoff...well, we certainly don't need a long-track storm this early! i hope it stays ragged!

JFV...haven't had a chance to check out the circulation, but it looked pretty impressive last night.
Since it is dark over there now...I guess we will have to wait til morning to see what it looks like.
746. all4hurricanes 7:22 PM EDT on June 15, 2008
So why isn't the blob an invest I mean it already looks more impressive than Andrea and Lee shear is low and there isn't any extremely dry air in the area


With most possible invests such as these I think they're waiting for it to sustain itself and not go "poof" at least until tomorrow morning. I wonder what the 8 PM TWO will say...i'll bet they won't even mention it.
color-enhanced IR is still available...might be kind of old, though...

Same her Pearland...Although it is interesting to track these things...when they do develope...as they will later in the season...they will cause harm and heartbreak wherever they hit.
the next person who says that the wave will go poof and its not the time of the season. Need I remind you about 05? For those who are the naysayers in here and those who wishcast, there is no true way to tell unless you have a direct line to mother nature. Other than that lets focus on the season, not naysaying storms.
Michael, I had been hearing that the Iowa area was due for another round of rain. when will it end for them in that retrosopect
JFV, all I care about is that we get something so that those of us in South Fla can have the 4th celebrations. If that thing becomes something huge, then I am going to request a ticket to go hang out with hurricanecrab
and btw the voice of reason is otherwise known as the red !
2005 Blast from the Past...

Posted by: JeffMasters, 7:29 AM EDT on June 30, 2005

OK, blink and you'll miss this tropical storm. Tropical Storm Bret formed last night in the Bay of Campeche off Mexico, and is already on its way ashore. By tonight, it should be well inland and not even classifiable as a tropical depression.

Bret is the 2nd troical storm to form in the Atlantic this June, which is an unusual amount of activity for June. Since 1851, there have only been 12 occurrences of two or more tropical storms in the month of June, most recently in 1986. Does this portend an active hurricane season? Well, if we look at the plot of hurricane activity for 1986, we see that although that year had two June tropical cyclones, the rest of the year was well below average, with a total of only 6 tropical cyclones (11 is average). I remember the year well, it was the first year I flew into hurricanes as a member of the Hurricane Hunters. I was excited about doing a lot of flying that year, and my first flight of my career happened in June of that year. I flew into Hurricane Bonnie, a weak category one hurricane that hit Texas. The sight of huge waves crashing into the oil rigs we flew over, all lit up at night by Bonnie's lightning, made for an unforgettable first flight. But unfortunately for me, (and fortunately for the residents of the Atlantic Seaboard) the rest of the season was a dud, and we ended up having to fly down to Puerto Vallarta to chase hurricanes over the Eastern Pacific. In those days, the NOAA hurricane hunters were given 100 - 200 flight hours to use for hurricane research, and if there were no worthy Atlantic storms, we often worked storms off of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific. Actually Puerto Vallarta was not so bad a place to work out of! We stayed at a great beach front hotel (cheap since it was the off-season), and watched huge waves from Hurricane Paine smash down the 10-foot seawall protecting our hotel's swimming pool and push the debris into the pool.

Examination of other Junes reveals that there is no significant correlation between June tropical storm activity and the rest of hurricane season. However, the position and intensity of the Bermuda High and sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are more typical of what things should be like a month from now. We are already beginning to see strong tropical waves with impressive satellite presentations come off the coast of Africa, and that is unusual for June. In fact, the GFS model takes one of those waves and develops it into a hurricane next week as it sweeps north of the Leeward Islands, past Bermuda around July 6, then out to sea. It will be interesting to see if the GFS model is correct. If so, this would likely be the harbinger of an active hurricane season.
754. i hope i didn't set you off, man! i was merely commenting on how i would be completely happy if the wave was decimated by shear...that's all. i'm not saying it's going to happen...i was just saying i'd be okay if that happened! :)
The NHC didn't mention nothing in the 8PM TWO. You were right, Terra...LOL
Is this your first season on here pearland?
pearl, wasnt you. if you scroll behind you. you will see why I responded.
Geoff, i've been a lurker for a long time...finally decided to stick my toe in the water, so to speak! :)
764. it's cool...i just wanted to make sure what i said wasn't misunderstood.
storm, I think the NHC is throwing caution to the wind by not saying anything. If we remember how in the past years they have called things invests and such and then had those things disappear. so I think they are being safe right now
pearl, just call me the lumber nut. its easier or PSN
I joined mid-last season...and I have had my toe bitten off more times than I like....but I have to admit...I was pretty accurate about the storms that made it to central Atlantic and their impact on the U.S....if any.
alright, folks...i'm out...i figured i'd pop in and see what's going on. i'm going to spend the rest of this evening with my family.


have a great Father's Day!

/lurking ON LOL
Though impressive for this early the wave around 7-8 N is currently not worthy of an invest classification as of right now.Convection is already on the decrease somewhat which comes as no surprise.
wpb, then whats your feeling on this one. seems to survive when it shouldnt
Have a Great Pearland...!!!
The waves coming off the African Coast have been impressive as of late...but SST's, Shear further out, Upper Level Winds...are just not codusive right now. Not an expert here...but been following the tropics for a long time.
I Need this storm, I Needs it! My Precious!

770. GeoffreyWPB 11:46 PM GMT on June 15, 2008
I joined mid-last season...and I have had my toe bitten off more times than I like....but I have to admit...I was pretty accurate about the storms that made it to central Atlantic and their impact on the U.S....if any.


Wow.

Thanks nrtiwlnvragn..So I guess basically it means...storms will form inalnd and move to the east coast.
Geez Cane...I said I joined..not followed the tropics that long ago...I always read your posts and respect them.
744. eye 11:16 PM GMT on June 15, 2008
it is looking ragged because the SST are marginal at best for development....all this season they come off, look great right off Africa where the ssts are 2-3 degrees higher than normal, then they get toward the mid atlantic where they are slightly lower than normal, factor that in plus dry air and shear and you have a poof


Buddy, SSTS are NO problem anywhere in the Atlantic within the MDR (Main Development Region).
have company over... can only check for a few seconds... what is the latest on that wave from this morning? Any good pics?
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 6N.
ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE
AS INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY THE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 21W-25W.
Well, My family is taking off Tuesday for Clearlake California for two weeks. Really looking forward to the trip. Just found out the average water temps are about 70 degrees. YIKES!
Evening all.

I see we have another impressive wave in the EATL. I have to agree with those who don't expect any serious development of this wave in the long term, based on climatology and the dry phase of the MJO. I do think, however, that it will stick around and be impressive watching for a few more days. Unless things improve radically in the CAR, though, I don't think we'll see much beyond that.

Frankly, I doubt we'll see any serious formation in our basin before July. In fact, I'm not realistically expecting anything to form before 15 July. I'm noting the location of dust and shear which is keeping Twaves from making a strong play in the areas where water is warmest. A lot of that has to do with the location of the AB high, which is keeping lots of these vigorous waves quite low as they cross the ATL.

After 15 July, though, all bets are off. . . LOL.
786. eye
Cane, Dr M gave un update for the area, two weeks ago (not that long ago) vast areas were slightly below normal to normal in the MDR...and the MDR is NOT the area where this dying wave is located....SSTS might say 81, but not a a depth that would support systems developing...just like the Gulf, some areas the warm SSTs are very shallow so it doesnt take much to mix the colder SSTs from below to the top. It will be another month or so before the SSTs in the mid atlantic support tropical development...80 is the min, and when it is shallow and lower than normal (has been for weeks that the mid atlantic ssts are slightly lower than normal, not something that just occured). You can show me all the pretty images you want that "appear" to show warm ssts, but i believe the doc when he gave an update and it still showed the MDR was either normal or slightly below normal and of course some areas above normal. Even then, the depth was nonexistant except around the islands. Again, that is why the area to look at is the Gulf and the western Carribean. There is a reason why the Pros at the NHC are brushing off this dying wave.

By the way, please reframe from calling me "buddy", i dont know you from adam. Thanks
While things may appear improbable, it doesn't mean possibilities can find fruition. It's just weather. Conditions and variables change, and sometimes suddenly.
785. Exactly. Happy Father's Day, Baha. Um, July 15th sounds fairly accurate imo; but, there could be a sneeker. That's why we watch, right! ;P
786. eye 12:13 AM GMT on June 16, 2008 Hide this comment.
Cane, Dr M gave un update for the area, two weeks ago (not that long ago) vast areas were slightly below normal to normal in the MDR...and the MDR is NOT the area where this dying wave is located....SSTS might say 81, but not a a depth that would support systems developing...just like the Gulf, some areas the warm SSTs are very shallow so it doesnt take much to mix the colder SSTs from below to the top. It will be another month or so before the SSTs in the mid atlantic support tropical development...80 is the min, and when it is shallow and lower than normal (has been for weeks that the mid atlantic ssts are slightly lower than normal, not something that just occured). You can show me all the pretty images you want that "appear" to show warm ssts, but i believe the doc when he gave an update and it still showed the MDR was either normal or slightly below normal and of course some areas above normal. Even then, the depth was nonexistant except around the islands. Again, that is why the area to look at is the Gulf and the western Carribean. There is a reason why the Pros at the NHC are brushing off this dying wave.

By the way, please reframe from calling me "buddy", i dont know you from adam. Thanks


Yep, he did say that, he said 'Slightly to normal' and that was 2 weeks ago, they SST's have guess what, warmed. The thing your stating is that the SSTs are way below average. Now, if you have a link to a site that says so, I'd gladly agree with you. (You need evidence to support your opinions on your storm, otherwise people just call you 'stupid, whishcaster, downcaster.' Ect.
IMHO, it is not the SST's that is the inhibitor here, although the upwelling of the cooler water is a factor. This this is moving of at a good clip west. maybe even hare south of west. Due to it forward speed, it will never have time to develop and pull itself out of the ITCZ. The most likely fate is running into SA.....

Interesting to watch though, but I just don't see anything becoming of this wave. Very little convection near the center as there was earlier today.

Who knows, this could emerge in the Caribbean, and cause trouble down there.

my .02$ for what its worth........

Now this same wave emerges in a couple or three weeks, I would be more hesitant in sticking my neck out! LOL
792. JLPR
June14:


2 weeks ago:


it has warmed but no like whoaa =P although I would say that the wave may become an invest , it can even become a weak TS with the current TCHP but hurricane, no, TCHP too low =)
Here is another way to look at how the SSTs are doing:

By the way, please reframe from calling me "buddy", i dont know you from adam. Thanks

Relax, eye. We're all friends here, aren't we??? LOL

But seriously . . ..

I think SSTs across most of the basin can sustain development, but if the other factors aren't also in place, the potential goes down. There is some validity to your argument about the depth of the water as well, though given another couple weeks of extended clear skies and high pressure across the area it won't be as cogent.
By this time tomorrow...it's either going to be there and a possible...or not....I say not. I have my crow ready.
Water temperature at 38W. Data from Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Project.





Link
797. nrtiwlnvragn 8:41 PM EDT on June 15, 2008

Interesting. It allows u to zoon like that?
798. BahaHurican

This page allows you to select different parameters and time frames.
I don't usually follow golf...but this game is amazing!
Tiger Wood's ia amazing....Watching the Tim Russert tributes today, my thoughts and prayers go out to his family and friends...and that wave will not develope.
And the flooding victims also
Evening again. Thanks slap for reading my post & responding. I will look at that.

GN all. Will check in for the latest in the am. Maybe an invest then?

nite.
Sorry for the triple post....
No invest...Sorry for the quad post...
delete
ASCAT pass of CATL wave




Link
Hi all got some much needed rain in z-hills FL. today had 2.38 in rain gauge.
Greetings all.
Our wave has not been able to build on its previous promise?
I think that there is still too much dry air, and now there is dust (worse again!), for any organisation, far less development.
I think that some folks are not giving the SAL its deserved recognition, or are not understanding the full influence that the sal has on these weather systems.
Blob go poof

unless a flare of convection can save it, it won't live and yes sal is not mentioned much even though it was the greatest reason 2006 wasn't a 2005
G,night all
811. JLPR

not so much SAL, there is some moderate SAL to the north but it doesn't seem to be affecting too much the wave. The wave probably went poof because of the D-Min now we have to wait and watch if the wave makes a comeback or not in the d-Max =)
Well if it doesn't build convection by morning than its probably "poofed"

Good night all!
...so....Is our wave gonna become a Cat5 and obliterate NOLA? Or not?
Well All4 the was actually quite a bit of SAL in 2005, you can tell by the fact that only a few storms formed out in that area.
Waiting and watching is good. But really, For that wave to go from where it was, to where it is, in terms of its organisation, I would say has to do with much more than just Dmin/Dmax.
We shall see.
.......and, its already 1;15 am where that wave is.
812. Most likely. But, the wave will still trek westwards and could eventually find more suitable conditions. We wait, we watch, we see.
Press - loved your description of the ATM machine - I know the feeling exactly. I often look at mine and ask what happened to that sweet little kid?

(ha - they are hiding behind the teen demons!)
zoo...people tell me that if I don't kill them...I'll start to like them again in a few years.....
yep -that's why babies are so cute - so those memories get you past the teens.

Actually - I love the teens, they are a lot of fun - but it would be nice if you could understand them when they talk occasionally.

I was looking forward to rain today - but we didn't get any.
we only got a spit of rain...lots lights and noise but nuttin wet to speak of....
I think the wave is waning....
JFV,
The wave is still there and spinning still has some convection with it.
Then again JFV, who knows it might become an invest and the blog will wax again if not it might wane again into some other type of weather debate.
828. JLPR
Well I am not going to say anything more about the wave =P at morning we should have a clear idea of whats going to happen =)
I give it a 50/50 chance of building some nice convection so I guess its just wait and watch =D
Persistence is key, but the wave did not show that today. We will have to see what it looks like 2mr morn. If the lack of convection continues through DMAX, then development is unlikely to occur. There is a partial LLC as indicated by ASCAT and a well-define mid-level circulation indicated by numerical models and products at the CIMSS. But recent sat pictures showed a rather broad feature with isolated convection within the ITCZ. Not to mention, lack of model support. Enviromental conditions still seem conducive for development, if the wave decides to do anything.

Now something we need to clear up. Waves dont go poof, the convection does. The wave axis remains and tracks westward.
...that's why I said 'waning'....
831. JLPR
Yep waves sure are hard to predict
Like what happened to the wave that became Jeanne it was all weak in the East Atlantic but by the time it reached the islands it was looking a lot more interesting =P
For now, most of the caribbean has too much wind shear for anything entering it to survive. Until shear relaxes, don't expect Bertha...the only thing worth watching is the EATL...but that still will not "heat" up until July at earliest.

So, for now, enjoy the calm tropics before most of the caribbean becomes supportive for tropical development...around a week or two. I'm still expecting 1 (maybe 2) more storms to form this June, but that would only happen on the last week of June when the tropics becomes more favorable.
There is a nice convective flare developing right over the circulation center right now. Maybe this thing still has more to offer.
Here is the cool Water Vapor shot from the LSU Satellite site.
835. 0741
833. cchsweatherman were did you get sat pic ?
About half-way between D-Min and D-Max.
Link

Consistency is key...
837. 0741
METEOSAT-8 is outdated it only update every 6 hour
Guess everyone has left for the night! Good night and Happy Father's Day to all the dads out there.
that wave it's not done. expect the unexpected.
Looks like another burst going on.
It looks that way Florida.
Evening all.
Hey, Baroness! Long time no see! How are you?
MLC, I am good. Hard to believe it is hurricane season again. So Dr. M is saying it will be quiet for a while I guess. Had a tornado go right across my ranch a couple of weeks ago. Very exciting/scary. How is your neck of the woods?
Whoa! A tornado? Ugh, there's been too many of those things this year! I trust you faired well through it. It's just getting summertime here, a few late afternoon thunder poppers, but nothing as serious as the mid-west and all that.

Yeah, not much tropical happening in the present. Some of us are watching that twave out in the cATL, but there's a bunch of liquid real estate in front of it, and it's not looking that sporty right now anyway. But, we're watching. It's beginning to look like mid-July unless we have a sneeker; but, the CV season is likely to be quite active.

Good to see ya back around! :)
Just couldn't resist going outside to see if I could spot it. Saw it churning in the clouds. Realized the 100 year old farm house does not have a single interior room or even any load bearing walls. That was when the scare crept in. Ceilings that had never leaked before starting leaking like a collinder. Ripped the metal roofing on my coral. Made me appreciate the real storm chasers. Must have balls of steele. :) CV, I forget.
Well, sounds like you had some intense moments and damage, too! Ugh! They've been bad this year!

CV = Cape Verde storms.
Never seen one quite so close. Decided I definitely need a storm shelter here. The original farm house had one, but an egit working with a bulldozer decided to fill it in. And a weather radio. First thing that goes out here is the TV. No weather channel.
Sound investments! Good to see you, Baroness. I'm out for the evening! :)
in my opinion,the tropical wave in central atlantic is gaining some convection during the overnight hours,lets see what happens tomorrow morning.the wave does not want to poof.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND
THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS
ALONG 26W/27W ON THE 00Z MAP IS PERHAPS FARTHER EAST ALONG
22W/23W. THERE IS A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AHEAD OF THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 6N...BUT IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-10N.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
8:30 AM IST June 16 2008
=============================================

At 8:30 AM IST, Depression BOB02-2008 formed over north Bay of Bengal off Bangladesh coast and lays near 21.5N 90.0E or 220 kms southeast of Calcutta, India. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction and cross Bangladesh coast near 89.5E today evening.

Maximum 10 minute sustained winds near the center is 25-30 knots. Sea condition is rough to very rough.

The strong low level westerlies to the south of the system and upper level divergence continues to support the deep convection, However, the moderate to high vertical wind shear is not supportive for any further intensification.

In association with the system, broken intense to very intense convective clouds are seen over the Bay of Bengal to the north of 15.5N.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin for Coastal India
===========================================
Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls (>25 cm) at isolated places is likely over Gangetic West Bengal and north Orissa during next 48 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very falls is also likely over south Orissa and Jharkhand during the same period

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 km/h are likely along and off north Orissa and West Bengal coasts during next 24 hours. Sea condition is rough to very rough along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.
854. IKE
00Z ECMWF..........

Link
Good morning Alot of folks on this blog believe seeing these strong waves move off the African coast here in June is a sign that that area will be very active later in the season. Not necessarily so.
Morning Storm! Hope you had a great father's day!
Yep - had a good day - sent him out golfing for the third day in a row so I guess he had no complaints.

Pondering whether it's a beach day today - they say possible rain but not too sure.

Ok - so I have a REALLY stupid question...we have no plywood and such for the windows of the house...how does one measure for that? We were planning on getting the plylex clips but not sure how to measure for the plywood - do you measure a bit smaller than the window?

Here is a link to Plylox site.
Should have all the information you need.
Very cool Shen - thank you. Figured we might as well have the clips and wood just in case - everyone tells us Savannah never gets hit but I would rather have them on hand instead of being at home depot for twenty seven hours in line.

861. melwerle

Glad to help. Got to hate Homedepot,especially with storm situation. We had power out for over 2 weeks in parts of VA a while back. Brothere in Williamsburg had my other brother who lives here pick up a generator and run it down as non could be had for love or moey down there so I know how it goes.

Can't believe I beat Patrap with a link. Must be sleeping in. Must be getting old. ;)
Good morning.
I like the new water level link from USGS. Florida is in for a wet week, but in a good way.
Since we get about 80% of our water from ground water sources, it's recharge is vital to Floridians. Even some small lakes are starting to come back.
Just popping in for a bit this morning...looks like the convection redeveloped some with the wave, however it isn't very organized now.
Good Morning All....Had a great Father's day, the tropics are quiet right now, and parts of Florida may get some more needed rain this week;.....Per NHC, no development expected in the upcoming 48 period and that decent looking "lowrider" wave in the CATL is still embedded in the ITCZ (does not look good for tropical development as it is presently headed on a crash course with SA).....Guess we'll have to wait on some significant frontal remnants closer to CONUS in the coming weeks so we can resume blob watching in June.........
859. melwerle 7:34 AM EDT on June 16, 2008 If you do not have the money to install metal/aluminum shutters, and need to go with the plywood, that Plylox concept (with the wood basically secured "inside" the window frame against the windows) is pretty good and based upon one gentleman down at ground zero during Andrew whose house survived because of similar placement of his plywood shutters..While I am relatively safe in Tallahassee (as opposed to when I lived in South Florida and had a Rolladen system on my home), I used that gentleman's model for this home, have pre-cut boards for every window on my home to fit inside the window frame, and attached deadbolt locks to each shutter (with corresponding drill holes in each window frame)......Keep them in the gargage and would probably take about 4 hours to secure the house.........Also make sure that you "paint" the shutters with a good waterproof marine paint (or equivalent) to preserve them during storage in the long term..............WW
Good morning from Jupiter...

How is everyone?
Thanks WW - never thought about the marine paint...

868. melwerle 8:32 AM EDT on June 16, 2008I didn't either until I read up on it before I cut my boards seven years ago; makes perfect sense in that it fights off mold and mildew while in my garage (they still look like new after seven years in my garage), and, holds up well after any storm with minimal water damage to the boards.....Several coats of paint is a good idea also and they will last for years...
the blob fizzled but could it reform?
869. weathermanwannabe

Good points. Pay particular attenton to getting the edges sealed that's where watter gets in and causes swelling which can delaminate plywood over time.

I think the blob in the down right corner is the blob we're talking about it looks like it gained a lot of convection
871. ShenValleyFlyFish 8:52 AM EDT on June 16, 2008...That is exactly right....Several coats on the edges is particularly important...Take your time on this project (don't rush it) and do the multiple coats over several days so each coat is fully dry before you apply the next coat........
You don't need the high-dollar marine grade plywood either. Sheathing grade perfectly adequate if you seal it well. You're weathering a storm, not building an ark.
Good morning everyone! I have to agree with JP, the chances are better than not that the CV season is going to be active this year.

Happy Father's day to all the dads. I enjoyed a good one watching NASCAR and the US Open Golf Tournament with my family. Weekends are too short.
876. Weather456 9:13 AM EDT on June 16, 2008.....Nice, Short, Concise......I suspect Dr. M (if he does a blog today) will "echo" the calm week and probably state that we might not see any signifant development until the begining of July.....June will be quiet (Mid-July/August may be another story with plenty of impressive waves breaking free of the ITCZ and heading our way......)..
So I feel that the waves being this strong has everything to do with the fact that we could see an active CV season.

Agreed.

Figure 3: a) Easterly wave variations during wet versus dry years in Western Sahel, b) 90-day rain accumulations % of normal, showing wetter than normal conditions along Western Sahel and c) TRMM rainfall anomalies over the past 30 days showing average to slightly above normal rains over the Eastern Atlantic Ocean.



Source
Well; I'm out for now to get some work done but would urge all in harms way this season to take advantage of the next two weeks to get your evacuation plans in order; get hurricane supplies if you have not done so; and, perhaps buy some extra quantities of gasoline (you might save few bucks later by hoarding up now before a potential storm threatens the Gulf and sends prices through the ceiling come August and September).....BBL
so even if these waves don't form we should still watch them to see how much dry air it gets rid of

the ITCZ is so low the waves don't reach dry air so waves coming off in july and august could still deal with dry air unless the itcz moves northward
Weather456,
Convection goes poof not waves right? The axis is still there
Wave...
CLICK FOR LOOP AND LINK
885. IKE
The eastern Atlantic wave still has rotation and to me, appears to be moving slightly north of west. The 6Z GFS puts it in the central Caribbean...south of DR/Haiti and approaching Jamaica by Saturday.......

Link
late in tell july
91L Pt.2
Good evening from Spain,

92B system looks like very impressive! Let me show you the last HIRE image from TERRA satellite and MODIS sensor. I have modified some values of the image to enhance the tops of the convective complexes attached to the low.



I think the LLCC is located overland, close to the Indian coast.

Lastest DVORAK data are quite interesting:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
16/0830 UTC 21.1N 89.8E T2.0/2.0 92B
16/0230 UTC 20.8N 89.3E T2.0/2.0 92B
15/2030 UTC 20.6N 89.6E T2.0/2.0 92B
15/1430 UTC 20.2N 89.5E T1.5/1.5 92B
15/0830 UTC 20.3N 90.3E T1.0/1.5 92B
15/0230 UTC 19.2N 90.6E T1.5/1.5 92B
14/2030 UTC 19.0N 90.8E T1.0/1.0 92B

Only 0.5 more and it should be a tropical depression, if not yet, looking at its impressive stormy structure.

The squall-line overland is massive.
Good Morning all, I see your talking about boards for the windows and stuff. What we did was buy plain cheap plywood and then hubby cut them to fit the windows then we fiberglassed them and we have had the same boards for 22yrs. We went thru Georges,Ivan,katrina. And they are still holding up. I mean it's not all that expensive, you gotta know what your doing but It's well worth it. I promise if the truth was told he cut them and i fiberglassed them then i put resin around the edges and then put silicone on the edges. Just thought i would tell you all. At least in 22yrs we haven't had to buy no plywood. We made them for some friends of ours that own beach houses to, and they still have them to.
Sheri
Hey JP, Good Morning. So no one thinks that little wave off of Africa want amount to much.
Sheri
Jp,
It looks like a new burst of convection is starting.
Sheri,
It would appear unlikely but weather is not something that is certain.
JP,
A met last night said the Canary Current is effecting it? Isn't that more near the Cape Verde Islands?
898. IKE
What shear ahead of it(eastern Atlantic wave)?

It's in 5-10 knots of shear all the way to the islands....

Link
Sporteguy03- Thanks for answering my question. Have a great day.
Sheri
884
I looked at the link are there two circulations it looks like the wave divided
Ike- I looked at your link you put up. I don't mean to sound dumb but all the yellow lines that says 5 and 10 and so on is that the shear your all are talking about? I don't know how to read them or know what i am looking at. but when ever someone puts a link up i always go look but sometimes it looks like foreign language to me.if ya know what i mean just trying to learn and figure things out before season. There's alot to learn.
Thank you,
Sheri
The Wave farther west does not have a COC. The other wave has a COC which is evident by the "mist" looking green color circling the eastern wave. It has also been producing sporadic Convection.
Yeah what shear... LOL

There isn't anything till the Islands. Plenty of time.

906. IKE
901. catastropheadjuster 9:10 AM CDT on June 16, 2008
Ike- I looked at your link you put up. I don't mean to sound dumb but all the yellow lines that says 5 and 10 and so on is that the shear your all are talking about?


Yes...sorry it took a few minutes to answer back.
904.
LOL I know but there is 2 sections (I Should have said sections) of it.. One is just Upper Level clouds (Western Section) and the Eastern Section which has the COC.
I'll have a full tropical update later today with analysis on the tropical wave that has caught so much attention.
911. IKE
I'm surprised there's no invest on the eastern ATL wave....I just checked.....
the lines are shear tendencies, the shades are current shear numbers, in KTS of course.
The sickly little thing we are looking at right now I would think would need favorable conditions for longer than just to the islands to amount to anything near a storm.
914. IKE
913. jphurricane2006 9:20 AM CDT on June 16, 2008
Ldog

I wouldnt say the wave is sickly lol, it looks pretty impressive for June


Yup...agree.
Ike- That's ok, I know when you guys get on here you all are busy. But i really appreciate you taking the time to answer me, I am not as smart as you all, but it doesn't hurt to learn.
Thank you agian,
Sheri


Over the past few weeks, I have been observing favorable shear values continuing to rise northward into the Western Caribbean and Central Atlantic. Overall, shear has been decreasing noticably over the past few weeks across the Atlantic Basin. I will continue watching this trend as this could be an ominous sign for the upcoming season.
The wave doesn't look sickly, but its looked better before...the NHC probably mentioning it because of its low latitude.
Yeah.. Its June 16th

16 days since the start of Hurricane Season, 3 Months till the peak of Hurricane Season and we have a CV wave with a Visible COC?!

What is this world coming to?
882. sporteguy03 9:44 AM AST on June 16, 2008
Weather456,
Convection goes poof not waves right? The axis is still there


Correct. Remember Hurricane Felix, Tropical Storm Alma, Tropical Storm Alberto, Arlene and Barry. All of these storms genesis resulted from a wave that was rather convectively inhibited as they cross the TRP Atlantic only to "reappear" in the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Earl and Hurricanes Charley and Claudette were also examples.
920. IKE
915. catastropheadjuster 9:23 AM CDT on June 16, 2008
Ike- That's ok, I know when you guys get on here you all are busy. But i really appreciate you taking the time to answer me, I am not as smart as you all, but it doesn't hurt to learn.
Thank you agian,
Sheri


I'm not that smart on this either...

I was on the phone talking to my mom about Tim Russert and his son...what a shame...what class shown by his son on NBC this morning.......

Now...back to the tropics!
So that map means the shear has went down in quit a few places compared what we was seeing a week or 2 ago. Right?
Sheri
902. weathersp 10:10 AM AST on June 16, 2008

One wave
902. weathersp 10:10 AM AST on June 16, 2008

One wave
Ike- yes Mr Tim was young, but i missed the NBC broadcast.
Like you said back to weather, and in my eyes you are one of the smart ones on here.
Sheri
925. IKE
921. catastropheadjuster 9:26 AM CDT on June 16, 2008
So that map means the shear has went down in quit a few places compared what we was seeing a week or 2 ago. Right?
Sheri


Out in the area the wave is in it has....favorable shear area............
926. IKE
924. catastropheadjuster 9:29 AM CDT on June 16, 2008
Ike- yes Mr Tim was young, but i missed the NBC broadcast.
Like you said back to weather, and in my eyes you are one of the smart ones on here.
Sheri


Thank you...
Plenty of time to check your roof. Reseal any loose edges where the wind can get a purchase - losing your roof starts with a single shingle, especially on the edges.

Lay up some roof repair supplies. Three times I lost some roof but was able to put up a patch after the wind subsided but before the heavy rain hit & I had no significant interior damage. If you stay (minor hurricane, not in evac zone), you can stop the loss (insurance companies like that :).
923. 456

See post 908. My mistake.
Sorry guys one more question ok? Has the BH set up for the summer and where is it? What i mean is it close to where most of them will be fishies or go into the GOM,Eastern US,or thru the Caribbean?
Sorry can't spell it this morning.
Sheri
Mail call catastropheadjuster!
Good Morning.....it seems that none of the reliable model runs pick up the wave in the EATL. The only model picking it up is the CMC
933. IKE
931. 305st0rm 9:35 AM CDT on June 16, 2008
Good Morning.....it seems that none of the reliable model runs pick up the wave in the EATL. The only model picking it up is the CMC


The latest GFS has it...it just doesn't develop it into a storm...

Then again, I've seen the GFS not develop systems that do develop....
Tampa - When I work on my Tropical Update, I'll take a look into that area and give you my opinion since it seems that you are dead-set that there will be tropical development in the Southwest Caribbean.
Anybody noticed a WNW turn in the wave over the last 6 or so hours..

Don't look at the cloud tops look at the "green mist" the circles it and look in which way it moves on the easten side of the wave.

Link
937. IKE
936. weathersp 9:41 AM CDT on June 16, 2008
Anybody noticed a WNW turn in the wave over the last 6 or so hours..


I agree.
934. cchsweatherman 10:39 AM EDT on June 16, 2008
Tampa - When I work on my Tropical Update, I'll take a look into that area and give you my opinion since it seems that you are dead-set that there will be tropical development in the Southwest Caribbean.


CCHS it just my opinion.....your sarcasm is not needed.......thank you.
hello cchs!

Did you respond to my NHC questtion on your blog?

Can you throw me a link or an image of the new wave?
Would the low shear indicate neutral conditions are beginning?
(ie, no more El Nino?)
morning all...well looks like that nice convection in the Atl....kinda early for this time of the year, but heck the way this year is going...no telling what will happen next..
There really isn't anything in the Caribbean right now.
850mb vorticity map shows some defined vorticity has formed with the wave, but still low in latitude.
Floodman- thanks and Mail call back at cha.
Sheri
anyone notice that slight spin off the yucatan...probably not anything, but a spin is a spin...just wondering..
946. I agree, but I think the latitude has something to do with why the NHC isn't talking about it. Also its embedded in the ITCZ too and that is probably a factor as well.
Tropical Update for Monday, June 16, 2008
Written at 11AM

Right now, the Tropical Atlantic remains rather quiet with just one feature that I'm watching for possible tropical development. The Tropical Atlantic remains rather quiet due to very fast upper-level winds occuring over the most climatologically-favorable area for tropical development for June - the Caribbean - but over the past week, the upper level winds over the region have begun to relax. I will continue to watch this trend as this could be an ominous sign for the upcoming months.

As previously mentioned, there is one feature I'm monitoring for possible tropical development. Over the weekend, there was a very impressive tropical wave that emerged off Africa which now is moving across the Central Atlantic. On the Tropical Atlantic satellite loop above, this tropical wave has just appeared into the view at around 30W. There is a very well-defined circulation, although not at the surface yet. For right now, I cannot determine whether this feature will develop into a tropical system since there are factors going for (very low upper-level winds, very warm water temperatures, and a developing circulation) and going against (very dry air surrounding the system, new dust surge from Africa, and climatology) tropical development. I will know much more about this feature tomorrow as I will be watching for the convection to maintain itself and increasing organization in order for me to determine that this will develop.

Going away from this main feature, we may have to watch the Gulf of Mexico as a frontal system will stall in the Northern Gulf this week. During June, there have been tropical systems that have developed from dying frontal systems when they reach the Gulf of Mexico. Right now, the upper-level winds are quite favorable for tropical development there and water temperatures are warm enough to support tropical development, but it will all depend on what happens with this approaching frontal system once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.

Overall, no tropical development is expected within the next 24 hours, but I cannot say that definitively for within 48 hours. Stay tuned for further updates.
Morning everyone! I see the wave came back pretty good in DMAX.
949. cchsweatherman 11:01 AM EDT on June 16, 2008

Should this not be on YOUR on personal blog. Instead of a post....wow
My humble opinion is that the reason NHC is ignoring the atl wave is simply climatology, which rarely fails. But having said that, this mid June wave is "pretty" healthy. Wonder what will be their reaction if the so call"sickly little wave" surprise us.
This feature has alot to overcome if its going to development. Stratocumulus near a tropical disturbance especially in the path of motion is an unfavorable factor.



Blob Watching

think the NHC better get used to looking at these "different" areas of concern... the way this year's weather has gone...nothing is a shocker anymore it seems.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0900z 16Jun)
--------------------------------------
At 14:30 PM IST, Morning's Depression over north Bay of Bengal off Bangladesh coast moved in a westerly direction and lays centered at 21.5N 89.5E close to Bangladesh coast and about 170 kms southeast of Calcutta, India. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction and cross Bangladesh coast between 89.0 and 89.5E by today evening.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin for Coastal India
===========================================
Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy falls (>25cm) at isolated places is likely over gangetic West Bengal and north Orrisa during next 48 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over south Orrisa and Jarkhand during the same period.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 km/h are likely along and off north Orrisa and West Bengal coasts during next 24 hours. Sea condition is rough to very rough along and off these coasts. The Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea.
the quote from stormtracker.com bears repeating...

"...meteorology is an attempt to approximate chaos..."

it's as much art as science.....
957. DestinJeff 11:17 AM AST on June 16, 2008

Very well said!

The best we can do is use climatology as something as the norm. We have to look at the situation operationally and objectively (as it is happening now) to gauge whether these conditions are the norm.
960. presslord


Guestimation.
957. DestinJeff

That's why we call it weather. You never know whether it will turn out the way you expect.
Good morning all. I see the tropics are still quiet.

Busy today, but will check back in when I can....
962. TEXASYANKEE43

SWAG: scientific wild @ssed guess
JP,
Good Chance of Strong to Severe Storms today 60%-70% chance
965. jphurricane2006

We in Human Psychology still have you beat.
Anybody know when this High will move out of Texas? It's just burnin' up HOT here.
Good morning everyone. Not much to talk about. King SAL rules...
Re: 164. TexasGulf 2:32 AM GMT on June 14, 2008
Re: 179. Skyepony 3:29 AM GMT on June 14, 2008
Re: 189. atmoaggie 4:48 AM GMT on June 14, 2008

Although the terrible flooding in the Midwest is continuing, I wanted to respond to some open questions on this blog regarding how flood recurrence intervals are computed, how often they are updated depending on changing conditions, and how the corresponding FEMA floodplains are determined.

The FEMA Guidelines and Specifications for Flood Hazard Mapping Partners page contains links to most of the documents describing the procedures and technical specifications and requirements for determining recurrence intervals and floodplains. Quoting from Volume 1: Flood Studies and Mapping,

"An increase in the length of a stream gage record may also affect the flood discharge estimate. If the effective discharge was estimated by conducting a frequency analysis of a relatively short record of stream gage data, the base flood discharge estimate may be changed if newly available data are added. If stream gage data with a relatively long record(50 years or more) were used in the effective analyses, however, a few additional years usually will not cause significant changes in the base flood discharge estimate, unless a large-magnitude event occurred since the analyses were conducted. All frequency analyses are to be performed in accordance with the methods specified in Bulletin 17B, Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency (Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982). The effective flood discharge shall be revised only if that discharge is outside the 90-percent confidence interval (higher than 95-percent confidence limit or lower than 5-percent confidence limits) of the newly computed flood discharge. [February 2002]"

The Bulletin 17B mentioned above is available from the USGS Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency page.

From reading the documents my understanding is that in general updates may be required by the FEMA Director, but the decisions to update are usually left to the FEMA regional offices. Updates are completed for different subregions every year. A search of updates may be performed by going to the Federal Register EPA Impact Statements site. A search using the words "change" and "elevation" seems to bring up all of the updates.

Although the updates are normally local and ongoing, FEMA is currently engaged in a national update effort called the "Flood Map Modernization Program". Here is FEMA's Map Modernization page with links to all of the documents. The program will involve digitization of many paper products, improved on-line access of data, and widespread updates of current FEMA maps. Quoting from the FAQ,

Q: What is Flood Map Modernization?
A: Flood Map Modernization (Map Mod) is FEMA's approach to updating the Nation's flood hazard maps. Map Mod transforms flood maps into reliable, easy-to-use, and readily available digital products. As a result, communities across the country can more easily obtain flood risk information to help make sound construction and mitigation decisions.

Q: Why do flood maps need to be updated?
A: Reliable information about flood risks is the first step in preventing and reducing losses. Today, more than two-thirds of the Nation's flood maps are more than ten years old, and therefore may not represent the true flood risks. Up-to-date flood hazard data and maps support an actuarially sound flood insurance system, enable wise floodplain management, and increase the Nation's flood hazard awareness.
[...]

A good short tutorial on calculating flood recurrence intervals is available courtesy of Dr. Eric M. Baer, Geology Program, Highline Community College via Carleton College: Teaching recurrence intervals.

A very good description of how FEMA's standards for hydrological and hydraulic modeling are translated locally into operational mode is given in Knox County Tennessee Stormwater Management Manual Section 8.4 Floodplain Management Regulations. For example,

"8.4.3.1 Hydrologic Modeling - Determining Peak Discharges
Peak discharges shall be determined for the 2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 100-year and 500-year
storm events. The peak discharges shall be determined for pre-development and post-development land use conditions, and shall be utilized as input to the hydraulic model that is used to determine floodplain elevations and other floodplain data.

Four methods are considered acceptable for determining peak discharges for the purpose of
floodplain data development, as follows:
1. gage analysis using statistical hydrologic methods;
2. Clark Unit Hydrograph;
3. the use of Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) regression equations; and,
4. the use of a hydrologic model, such as USACE's HEC-1 or HEC-HMS.

The Director shall select the method that will be used on a case-by-case basis. The selection is based on the availability of existing hydrologic models and/or gage data in the same area as the proposed development, a history of flooding in the same area as, or downstream of, the proposed development, FEMA standards and requirements, and engineering judgment."[...](more)

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers hydrological and hydraulic modeling software is available on the Hydrologic Engineering Center page.

Interesting to note that FEMA specifies USGS regional regression equations that are used in the National Flood Frequency program (see Program Documentation for V3), but Knox County has substituted TVA equations... apparently an exception in areas where the TVA exists. The differences between the USGS and TVA equations are outlined in the Knox County Tennessee Stormwater Management Manual, Volume 2 (Technical Guidance) Chapter 3.1 Introduction to Hydrologic Methods.

Finally, for a short and fairly non-technical research paper showing how a group in Croatia integrated the USACE hydrological and hydraulic models together with a meteorological model to determine flood recurrence intervals, see "HYDROLOGIC AND HYDRAULIC ANALYSIS OF LESS STUDIED WATERSHEDS" (pdf).
A watched pot never boils.

CIMSS 200mb vort Atl
Wow - first time I have seen a child abduction emergency on weather.gov...

972. guygee

Why not just post a link?
New Blog.
Re:975. 69Viking

A link to what?
I suppose I could have created a blog and linked to it... otherwise it is an original composition, so there is nothing else to link to.

If people are not interested in my posts please put me on ignore, that will solve the problem.

I tend to put up long posts.
THE VERY LEARNED STORMW HAS ISSUED A PREDICTION ALONG WITH MINE THAT WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN UPTICK IN TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN THE RANGE OF JULY 10 -- OR THEREABOUTS.

THE INFORMATION COMING IN TO MY WEATHER OFFICE INDICATES THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE A PARTICULARLY ACTIVE YEAR FOR THE GOMEX, PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE SEASON.

FORECASTER // STROMTOP