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Historic 2012 U.S. drought continues to expand and intensify

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:01 PM GMT on July 20, 2012

The great U.S. drought of 2012 continues to accelerate, and grew larger and more intense over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, July 19. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought expanded from 61% to 64%, and the area covered by severe or greater drought jumped from 37% to 42%. These are truly historic levels of drought, exceeded only during the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s and a severe drought in the mid-1950s. If we make the reasonable assumption that the current area covered by drought is representative of what the average for the entire month of July will be (based on the latest drought forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center), the July 2012 drought is second only to the great Dust Bowl drought of July 1934 in terms of the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought. The five months with the greatest percent area in moderate or greater drought, since 1895, now look like this:

1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Jul 2012, 64%
3) Dec 1939, 60%
4) Jul 1954, 60%
5) Dec 1956, 58%

If we consider the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by severe or greater drought, July 2012 ranks in 5th place:

1) Jul 1934, 63%
2) Sep 1954, 50%
3) Dec 1956, 43%
4) Aug 1936, 43%
5) Jul 2012, 42%


Figure 1. The twice-monthly U.S. Drought Outlook, updated on Thursday, July 19, predicts that drought will continue through October over most of the U.S., and expand to the north and northeast. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

The drought forecast: not encouraging
In their twice-monthly drought outlook, released on Thursday, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center had this to say about the drought: The combination of heat and dryness has severely reduced the quality and quantity of the corn and soybean crop, with 38 percent of the corn and 30 percent of the soybeans rated as poor or very poor as of July 15 by NASS/USDA. Some states, such as Kentucky, Missouri, and Indiana, had over 70 percent of their corn adversely rated. Unfortunately, drought is expected to develop, persist, or intensify across these areas, and temperatures are likely to average above normal. Some widely-scattered relief may come in the form of cold front passages or organized thunderstorm clusters (MCSs), but widespread relief for much of the area is not expected. Unfortunately, the self-perpetuation of regional drought conditions, with very dry soils and very limited evapotranspiration, tends to inhibit widespread development of or weaken existing thunderstorm complexes. It would require a dramatic shift in the weather pattern to provide significant relief to this drought, and most tools and models do not forecast this. Unfortunately, all indicators (short and medium-term, August, and August-October) favor above normal temperatures. With much of the Plains already in drought, above normal temperatures expected into the fall, and a dry short-term and 30-day forecast, the drought should persist, with some possible development in the northern Plains.

One bright spot: drought conditions are expected to improve over the Southwest U.S. over the next few weeks, as the annual summer monsoon peaks and brings heavy rains. The Southeast U.S. has seen some improvement over the past week, due to an upper-level low pressure system that has brought heavy rains. The potential for a landfalling tropical storm to bring drought-busting rains during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season led NOAA to predict possible improvement in drought conditions over the Southeast U.S.


Figure 2. The U.S. has seen twelve weather-related disasters costing at least $15 billion since 1980, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Two of the top three most expensive disasters have been droughts. The drought of 2012 could well make it three out of four. "It might be a $50 billion event for the economy as it blends into everything over the next four quarters," said Michael Swanson, agricultural economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis, the largest commercial agriculture lender. Only three $50 billion weather disasters have hit the U.S. since 1980.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss. The models are showing formation of an extratropical cyclone along an old frontal boundary over 1,000 miles off the Northeast U.S. coast on Tuesday, and it is possible such a storm could acquire tropical characteristics and get a name. Such a storm would not be a threat to any land areas. There is an unusual amount of dry, sinking air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean that is squashing development of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa, so it doesn't look too likely that the U.S. will get something it really needs--a big, wet Category 1 hurricane that sloshes ashore over the Gulf Coast, stalling over the Midwest, bringing copious drought-busting rains.


Figure 3. Portlight volunteers unloading supplies at the FBC in Henryville, Indiana on March 10, 2012. Henryville was devastated by an EF-4 tornado on March 2 that killed 11 people along its path.

Helping out with disaster relief
It's been another busy year for natural disasters in the U.S., and the portlight.org disaster-relief charity, founded by members of the wunderground community, has been very active helping out victims of this year's disasters. Portlight responded to the deadly March tornado outbreak in the Midwest, two separate April tornado outbreaks in Texas and Oklahoma, and the June wildfires in Colorado. Paul Timmons of Portlight has put together a year-to-date summary of portlight's efforts in 2012, and has this call for action:

Now we’re in July…things have gotten quiet, but we know they won’t be quiet for long. We’re in the middle of hurricane season and mid-summer is a time of unsettled and dangerous weather that happens when we least expect it. Our work is never really done and new tasks pop up all the time. With your help and the help of our friends like the amazing people at Wunderground.com and our new friends at Team Rubicon, The Mahalia Partnership, and CCDC, we will be ready.

Where do we go from here? That depends on you, our supporters, volunteers and friends. Our purpose hasn’t changed: we will continue providing support, relief and aid for unserved, under-served and forgotten people wherever they may be…


Peace to all this weekend, and I'll be back on Sunday or Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. LargoFl
Quoting GetReal:


Checking back in to find that the Florida AOI has developed a nice spin centered over the southern tip of Fl. It appears that the spin is in the mid levels. I haven't been able to observe any low level cloud movement to indicate low pressure at the surface.

It still needs to be watched the next 24 hours. IMO


right der
Noaa Buoys just off the coast of SE Florida and the keys indicate the pressuring had been steadily dropping.

Near Miami
Station MLRF1
NDBC
Location: 25.012N 80.376W
Date: Sun, 22 Jul 2012 21:00:00 UTC
Winds: E (100°) at 12.0 kt gusting to 14.0 kt
*****Atmospheric Pressure: 30.04 in and falling*****
Air Temperature: 79.0 F
Water Temperature: 84.2 F

In the Keys
Station LONF1
NDBC
Location: 24.843N 80.862W
Date: Sun, 22 Jul 2012 21:00:00 UTC
Winds: SE (130°) at 15.0 kt gusting to 17.1 kt
******Atmospheric Pressure: 30.03 in and falling*****
Air Temperature: 80.2 F
Dew Point: 74.7 F
Water Temperature: 84.2 F

Pressure this morning was 30.12 inches.

2004. Patrap
Quoting biloxibob:
im not a scientist,just an md.I thought that all systems seek equilibrium and therefore,resultant,increased entropy.


One only has to look at some Global Mosaic Loops in order to see the Patterns or jet Stream flows.

Its all very Organized and easily seen.Fractal like.

But were changing the Ratios at a known rate with the co2 and adding vast amounts of new WV into the system..and that adds more energy per meter on the Surface.

Dr. Masters recent Webinar discuss impacts to come.







Quoting CaribBoy:
.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY RAPIDLY DISSIPATED
AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS INVADED OUR LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR IS ACCOMPANY BY SAHARAN DUST
WHICH IS PRODUCING HAZY SKIES OVER THE REGION. PW VALUES ARE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES...AND ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 1.3 INCHES BY
MONDAY. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO OF VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING MOST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MID WEEK TO OUR WEST. THIS
FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME MOISTURE AT
LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE
LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT
TE REGION AT THIS TIME.


OMG I WILL DIE!!!!!!


More dry weather for the NE Caribbean this week.
2006. LargoFl
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC053-101-103-222145-
/O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0053.120722T2115Z-120722T2145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
515 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
PINELLAS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
PASCO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
HERNANDO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 545 PM EDT.

* AT 508 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM SHADY HILLS TO MOON LAKE ESTATES TO HOLIDAY...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPRING HILL TO 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HUDSON TO HOLIDAY...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TARPON SPRINGS...PALM HARBOR...NEW PORT RICHEY...HERNANDO BEACH...
CRYSTAL BEACH...ARIPEKA...HONEYMOON ISLAND...BAYONET POINT...
JASMINE ESTATES AND PORT RICHEY.

LAT...LON 2822 8285 2819 8283 2822 8278 2841 8272
2844 8268 2850 8269 2849 8234 2831 8248
2821 8252 2821 8264 2807 8267 2804 8283
2808 8285 2809 8282 2806 8279 2813 8279
2818 8282 2817 8286 2821 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 065DEG 24KT 2836 8254 2828 8262
2818 8275

$$
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Yeah she's in NOVA with me right now. We went out last night had our picnic plans ruined by rain but we went to movie instead. It was nice with the cool rain the last 2 days...until last night.

Aaaaaaanyway enough of me and my GF, we got more interesting things (at least to you all) to talk about.

Yes I was very happy to have temps in the middle to low 70's for two days.A real treat.Did you know the three airports recorded their coolest temps for the day yesterday?.
NP Doc, thanks for selflessly giving your life, time, and sacrificing so much of yourself to serve others.
I recorded the line of storms that just passed through Downtown Orlando about an hour ago. Here's the view from my balcony up on the 27th floor (sorry for the shoddy camera work, enjoy the people fleeing the pool deck):




A link to the video if embedding doesn't work: Vimeo.

Back to lurking. :)
2010. LargoFl
Quoting CastorVx:
I recorded the line of storms that just passed through Downtown Orlando about an hour ago. Here's the view from my balcony up on the 27th floor (sorry for the shoddy camera work, enjoy the people fleeing the pool deck):




A link to the video if embedding doesn't work: http://www.flickr.com/photos/53947167@N04/76248696 06/

Back to lurking. :)
..thanks..stay safe over there
2011. Patrap
ZOOM in here and note the RGB Cloud pattern over the Eastern Keys.

Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop

click Image for Loop



2012. spathy
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Ahem....I believe this is a HE....if this is to be Ernesto....


Too funny.
But at this distance with my aging eyesight I cant discern any physical properties that would define the blobs I can see.

So She or it.
I just like to call all storms she.
It comes with the age thing.
In my day all storms..... LOL
Ask Groth
2013. LargoFl
2014. LargoFl
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
534 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

FLC053-101-222145-
/O.CON.KTBW.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-120722T2145Z/
PASCO FL-HERNANDO FL-
534 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN HERNANDO AND WESTERN PASCO COUNTIES...

AT 527 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HERNANDO
COUNTY AIRPORT TO SHADY HILLS TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW PORT
RICHEY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SPRING HILL TO HOLIDAY...
MOVING WEST AT 30 MPH.

LAT...LON 2822 8285 2819 8283 2822 8278 2841 8272
2844 8268 2850 8269 2849 8234 2831 8248
2826 8256 2821 8264 2818 8282 2817 8286
2821 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 065DEG 24KT 2844 8255 2836 8263
2819 8285

$$
2016. ncstorm
Parts of NC have been having some bad storms today

Looks like that blob wants to be a Ernesto wanna be..
2018. LargoFl
Short Term Forecast

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
503 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -830-850-853-856-
870-873-876-222215-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT TO 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 60 NM INCLUDING TAMPA BAY-
CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DESOTO-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT TO 20 NM-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-
HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK -SARASOTA-SUMTER-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER 20 TO 60 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT TO 20 NM-
503 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

.NOW...
THROUGH 615 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT INLAND AREAS...AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
AFFECT COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS FROM NAPLES TO CEDAR KEY AND
OUT BEYOND 60 NAUTICAL MILES. AT 5 PM...STRONGEST ACTIVITY WAS OVER
COASTAL WATERS A FEW MILES WEST OF TREASURE ISLAND AND HOLMES BEACH.
ALL ACTIVITY IS MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 35
KNOTS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTING CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...GO TO A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL
OBJECTS. HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR SUDDEN DROPS IN
VISIBILITY AND POOR TRACTION.

$$
2019. Patrap
Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like that blob wants to be a Ernesto wanna be..


ernesto 2012 is prolly coming back soon
All right... just got back. It's WET out there... lol

The roads don't seem that bad today, prolly because we have had breaks between the episodes of heavier rainfall. I only noticed one or two places were it looked like a tree limb or branch had been blown down by the wind.

I have to remember to check tomorrow morning for the day's rain total here.

I did take a few photos, but I need to look at them to see what, if anything, is worthwhile.


Well.... this is quite interesting...

Lol..I'm comment 2007 and 2017.A whole 10 years apart!.When do you guys think the NHC call this an invest?.
What will the NHC say when they decide what's most likely to develop or not develop? Too much land interaction going to be what stops this development? And the feature just behind blob one has me wondering too, are the two connected?
How things have changed since this morning...

2026. 7544
Quoting BahaHurican:
img
src="http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES21312 012204vxJvpX.jpg" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px; ">

Well.... this is quite interesting...




thats blob no2 will if follow blob no 1 looks like it has a bigger punch
2027. Patrap
blog got killed i think
Mesmerized by the blob....Hypnotic seducer...gotta go BBL def!
2030. Patrap
2031. spathy
Quoting weatherh98:
blog got killed i think


Blob kilt ? Possibly.
Seed of blob still lurking and feeding?
Definitely!
2032. Patrap
Station 42003

NDBC

Location: 26.044N 85.612W

Date: Sun, 22 Jul 2012 20:50:00 UTC

Winds: E (90°) at 7.8 kt gusting to 9.7 kt

Significant Wave Height: 2.6 ft

Dominant Wave Period: 5 sec

Mean Wave Direction: SE (138°)

Atmospheric Pressure: 30.06 in and falling

Air Temperature: 83.8 F

Water Temperature: 86.5 F
waiting for someone to throw out katrina as an analog for this blob

LOLOLOLLO
Hello?...Anybody out there?
cody, if you see this happy birthday
2036. Patrap
Dats one big overall circulation I'd say.
2037. icmoore
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hello?...Anybody out there?


Nope just me :)
Quoting Thrawst:
LOL, I keep thinking it's like 7.30 cause it's so dark here in the Bahamas.. but then I glance at the clock.
Looks and feels like October... lol

Quoting NCHurricane2009:

What about our bloggers Kori and Levi...maybe they haven't had time to watch this today...and boy they are gonna get surprised if they just checked into the tropics now. I wonder what they have to say?
Kori's taking a break. Levi was in earlier, and was mostly concerned about how the system would handle the very high pressure; he was suggesting it would take a while even if it did spin up.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Hello?...Anybody out there?


hi
2040. Patrap
Hard to LOL at a K analog.


K was a Hurricane as it exited Fla.,

...dis is a w-a-v-e.

Quoting CastorVx:
I recorded the line of storms that just passed through Downtown Orlando about an hour ago. Here's the view from my balcony up on the 27th floor (sorry for the shoddy camera work, enjoy the people fleeing the pool deck):




A link to the video if embedding doesn't work: Vimeo.

Back to lurking. :)


Hey neighbor! I'm over in Lake Como, right down the street. Had some decent gusts, but very short lived. Nice video.
Quoting icmoore:


Nope just me :)
People are probably just eating dinner right now..something I can't eat thanks to a little nasty virus.
2043. Patrap



Station SANF1
NDBC
Location: 24.454N 81.877W
Date: Sun, 22 Jul 2012 21:00:00 UTC
Winds: ESE (110) at 12.0 kt gusting to 13.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.03 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.3 F
Quoting Patrap:
Dats one big overall circulation I'd say.


yea should take a while, if it can even spin up

low shear anyhow
Quoting Patrap:
Hard to LOL at a K analog.


K was a Hurricane as it exited Fla.,

...dis is a w-a-v-e.



I was oking pat... you know i dont mean it
Hey Cody maybe you don`t see this but Happy birthday hope you have fun and GBU have a blast on this day and hbd again.
2047. spathy
I hope you feel better Wash :O)
Just remember you still need to eat. Just more frequently in small bits.
And drink lots between.
2048. Patrap
Quoting weatherh98:


I was oking pat... you know i dont mean it


I know Homie..


: )
Quoting spathy:
I hope you feel better Wash :O)
Just remember you still need to eat. Just more frequently in small bits.
And drink lots between.
Thanks Spathy.I have water on hand at the moment.

Now everyone let's do the w-a-v-e.(Don't throw the tomatoes at me please).
Quoting weatherh98:
blog got killed i think
Well, it is Dmin, more or less. I'm waiting to see what this whole thing looks like in the a.m. If there's anything much left of it, we may eventually get a NS out of it... remember how long we watched that area in the BoHonduras before we actually got a NS out of it? Conditions are not that much more conducive right now...
2051. Grothar
Quoting Tribucanes:
What will the NHC say when they decide what's most likely to develop or not develop? Too much land interaction going to be what stops this development? And the feature just behind blob one has me wondering too, are the two connected?


If you people are going to be talking about these features, at least use the correct meteorological terminology. It is not a "second blob," It is a cut-off blob. :)
Quoting washingtonian115:
Thanks Spathy.I have water on hand at the moment.

Now everyone let's do the w-a-v-e.(Don't throw the tomatoes at me please).


booooo
2053. icmoore
Quoting washingtonian115:
People are probably just eating dinner right now..something I can't eat thanks to a little nasty virus.


Sorry I hope you feel better soon! I was just teasing there are others around, right Patrap :) A lot of us watching the weather tonight.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, it is Dmin, more or less. I'm waiting to see what this whole thing looks like in the a.m. If there's anything much left of it, we may eventually get a NS out of it... remember how long we watched that area in the BoHonduras before we actually got a NS out of it? Conditions are not that much more conducive right now...


i meant blog hahaha
cut-off blob



sounds painful...

: )
2056. spathy
Wow.
Talk about a spanked atmosphere!

2057. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
How things have changed since this morning...



Well, I certainly hope you are in a better mood!
-);(*)
Quoting weatherh98:
waiting for someone to throw out katrina as an analog for this blob

LOLOLOLLO
Too late. Happened sometime this morning...

Miami NWS not making a big deal out of the cut-off blob...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
515 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

.UPDATE...
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ALMOST ALL THE RAIN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH ONLY
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN LEFT NEAR THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON. SO LOWERED THE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
TOOK OUT LIGHTNING EXCEPT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LARGE
SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION
EARLIER TODAY HAS STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE. SO ALSO LOWERED POPS
FOR THE EVENING HOURS...AND KEPT THE HIGHER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO. WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATE TONIGHT...LEFT THE
SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...
HIGHEST ALONG THE EAST COAST.

THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO MAINLY 15
KNOTS OR LESS...SO DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY. SINCE THE WINDS HAVE
COME DOWN...WILL ALSO LET THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPIRE
FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS OVERNIGHT.
Quoting weatherh98:


i meant blog hahaha
Well the blog can't be dead, since I am here, so u must have meant bloB.... lol
Looks like this might screw up my 9:30 Monday morning tennis game...
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
cut-off blob



sounds painful...

: )
lol...

Are u guys getting any moisture at all from this area of blobbiness?
TS Vicente up to 50kts... Very deep convection:



It's only moving at 4kts so flooding is a big concern.

If you missed it earlier I wrote a quick blog update.
Center of circulation still over water and for as broad as this disturbance is, it looks good and looks like it's been slowly organizing all day. Wonder if continued organization will happen overnight or if we'll see a lot of dissipation and an end to any organization. Any opinions on if NHC will bump the ten percent chance?
Quoting BahaHurican:
lol...

Are u guys getting any moisture at all from this area of blobbiness?


Nope, some overcast this morning.
but the big build-up has taken place North of us.
A windy day but no rain.

CRS
JB's not buying it. (our AOI) We'll see if he knows what he's talking about.
Good Afternoon. Went fishing early this am (5:00) for 7 hours, got home at 3:00, cleaned up, and fell asleep on the couch (and beautiful morning/day); I did not even think about the weather. T-storm here near Tallahassee just woke me up, I turn on the computer to check out the radar and bam..... Florida is lit up like a Christmas tree and we have a yellow circle........

Is there a NOAA "alert" radio for Yellow Circles?.... :)
Quoting Tribucanes:
Center of circulation still over water and for as broad as this disturbance is, it looks good and looks like it's been slowly organizing all day. Wonder if continued organization will happen overnight or if we'll see a lot of dissipation and an end to any organization. Any opinions on if NHC will bump the ten percent chance?
If they do, I don't think it'll be to more than 20%... I think they're more likely to bump in the a.m. if at all...
The blob seems a bit less organized than earlier... It has kind of split in two:



However if you look at the loop it seems the second blob over the Bahamas is organizing.
2071. tramp96
What product does the best job forecasting the MJO?
CaribBoy: [quoting] NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT TE REGION AT THIS TIME.

meh... Note that specific misspelling. Apparently they're lettin' trolls write up the Discussions now.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Afternoon. Went fishing early this am (5:00) for 7 hours, got home at 3:00, cleaned up, and fell asleep on the couch (and beautiful morning/day); I did not even think about the weather. T-storm here near Tallahassee just woke me up, I turn on the computer to check out the radar and bam..... Florida is lit up like a Christmas tree and we have a yellow circle........

Is there a NOAA "alert" radio for Yellow Circles?.... :)
Sounds like you had a good day... lol

2074. Patrap
2075. 7544
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The blob seems a bit less organized than earlier... It has kind of split in two:



However if you look at the loop it seems the second blob over the Bahamas is organizing.


yeap thats the area im watching for blob no2 is it also moving west ?
IMO at 8PM we'll see the FL disturbance at 10% or 20% and 90E at 90%.
2077. barbamz
I'm not sure whether this blob is able to hold his acts together ...Link
Quoting BahaHurican:
Sounds like you had a good day... lol



Awesome day; Wife and kids are out of town and the only thing I know how to cook really well is fish so I had to go out and git me some dinner. To stay on topic, I will take a look at the Florida disturbance and get back here in a few hours but I have to fix dinner. On the menu: Blackend Redfish fillet-Zatarains Dirty Rice-Sauteed Vidalia Onions.....Beverage of Choice.
West? Maybe more NNW than W....
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
IMO at 8PM we'll see the FL disturbance at 10% or 20% and 90E at 90%.
What name are we up to in the EPac now?
2081. LargoFl
Quoting Chicklit:
Looks like this might screw up my 9:30 Monday morning tennis game...
..tampa bay has rain chances at 90% tomorrow
Quoting 7544:


yeap thats the area im watching for blob no2 is it also moving west ?

It's tough to tell because it just formed but on the AVN loop it seems to be going more north.
2040 Patrap: K was a Hurricane as it exited Fla... ...dis is a w-a-v-e.
2049 washingtonian115: Now everyone let's do the w-a-v-e.
2084. tramp96
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Awesome day; Wife and kids are out of town and the only thing I know how to cook really well is fish so I had to go out and git me some dinner. To stay on topic, I will take a look at the Florida disturbance and get back here in a few hours but I have to fix dinner. On the menu: Blackend Redfish fillet-Zatarains Dirty Rice-Sauteed Vidalia Onions.....Beverage of Choice.

Dont tell me you are going to blacken that inside
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Awesome day; Wife and kids are out of town and the only thing I know how to cook really well is fish so I had to go out and git me some dinner. To stay on topic, I will take a look at the Florida disturbance and get back here in a few hours but I have to fix dinner. On the menu: Blackend Redfish fillet-Zatarains Dirty Rice-Sauteed Vidalia Onions.....Beverage of Choice.
Geez... sounds almost as good as Sunday dinner we had here... Enjoy!

Quoting BahaHurican:
What name are we up to in the EPac now?

If 90E were to get a name it would be Gilma... Pretty impressive since East Pac action was supposed to pick up more later in the season with the El Nino formation... kind of the opposite of the Atlantic.
At least the 18z GFS has a weak low in Eastern Atlantic for a few days but is long range so take it will extreme caution. Need more runs.

Link
2088. LargoFl
...........................wow that was some storm, just cleaned off the driveway and sidewalks, filled TWO big bags full of twigs and leaves etc..everything was clean this afternoon til this blew thru here, looking down the block, street is a mess..
i did some research and found out that we typicaly get 1-3 landfalling storms durring el nino year hurriicane season this years a little above average i guess with beryl and debby
Quoting MAweatherboy1:


If 90E were to get a name it would be Gilma... Pretty impressive since East Pac action was supposed to pick up more later in the season with the El Nino formation... kind of the opposite of the Atlantic.
We need THE CHART for the EPac... But my instinct is that EPac tends to be active earlier than the ATL, but also tapers off a bit earlier as well... And all the early activity over there is IMO one of the better indicators that we may eventually get our El Nino this season [as opposed to after November].
2091. LargoFl
..................alot of this sort of thing around the county
2092. 7544
wegot the three stoogges folks another blob now forming over cuba hmmm it a day for blob watching but looks like the cuba blob wants to connect to the bahma blob lol
They've been having some impressive daytime heating storms over Cuba all summer....
2094. LargoFl
...........................No tropical storm?..you could have fooled us around here
2055 CaicosRetiredSailor: cut-off blob... sounds painful...

But not as wincingly as being cut-off low.
i did some research and found out that we typicaly get 1-3 landfalling storms durring el nino year hurriicane season this years a little above average i guess with beryl and debby
2097. spathy
Quoting LargoFl:
...........................wow that was some storm, just cleaned off the driveway and sidewalks, filled TWO big bags full of twigs and leaves etc..everything was clean this afternoon til this blew thru here, looking down the block, street is a mess..


Largo!
You emptied those plastic bags into your compost pile didnt you?

Compost is the best!
2098. LargoFl
2099. LargoFl
Quoting spathy:


Largo!
You emptied those plastic bags into your compost pile didnt you?

Compost is the best!
..lol no our city collects them and places it all in Their compost pile
Quoting Grothar:


Well, I certainly hope you are in a better mood!
-);(*)


I'm always in a good mood :)
Quoting 7544:
wegot the three stoogges folks another blob now forming over cuba hmmm it a day for blob watching but looks like the cuba blob wants to connect to the bahma blob lol


Our country does not have blob relations with Cuba.
2102. spathy
Quoting LargoFl:
..lol no our city collects them and places it all in Their compost pile


I hope you dont have to pay for the results.

Compost....
The best dark brew in town.
2103. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
658 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-231000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
658 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CREEP NORTHWESTWARD FROM NEAR
THE BAHAMAS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...MAINLY ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES.
FURTHER INLAND...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY GENERATE WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 MPH LATE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.
OTHER WEATHER HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST MAY CREATE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 35
KNOTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET
LATE TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR THREATS.

OVER LAND...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS
DAYBREAK WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH
ON INLAND LAKES AND WATERWAYS WEST I-95.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON LIGHTNING
STORMS RETURNS DAILY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE LATE WEEK.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

SEDLOCK
this is interesting

2105. LargoFl
Quoting spathy:


I hope you dont have to pay for the results.

Compost....
The best dark brew in town.
..for residents its free
2106. spathy
Quoting LargoFl:
..for residents its free


Thats good.
At least you dont have to pay for it twice.
Do you garden?
2107. beell
Quoting tramp96:
What product does the best job forecasting the MJO?


In the ATL Basin (excluding the far western Caribbean and BOC)? Madam Zelda, perhaps.
2108. LargoFl
Quoting spathy:


Thats good.
At least you dont have to pay for it twice.
Do you garden?
oh yes been doing that seems like forever
2109. LargoFl
....................well just the leftover rain around...guess i'll call it a night..............good night everyone...stay safe out there
Quoting BahaHurican:
We need THE CHART for the EPac... But my instinct is that EPac tends to be active earlier than the ATL, but also tapers off a bit earlier as well... And all the early activity over there is IMO one of the better indicators that we may eventually get our El Nino this season [as opposed to after November].



So far, this is closest I have found:

What makes a Blob an official invest? Is it based on probability of development? 10 –20-30 etc percent?
2112. 7544
lol maybe a spin just west of andros is where these two blobs could become one ?
2113. Patrap
XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
25.25N/81.15W
bejing.now.their.turn.70yr.flood?
2118. 7544
bahama blob reall blowing up at this hour thanks a pat
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
JB's not buying it. (our AOI) We'll see if he knows what he's talking about.
Maybe. After all, there's a first time for everything... ;-)

I'm wondering whether the "blob" will eventually spin up into anything. In fact, I'm hoping; it would be great to get some rain here before next week's predicted ridge sets in Sahara-izing us:

dry
2120. Patrap
Check the Boxes,FRONTS,MSLP

ZOOM is active

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
It's a tropical wave over Florida, that is all it is. There is no circulation, it has not been organizing, it's vorticity is not showing any signs of any future organization. I know everyone is a little antsy to get a system to track but come on guys, let's get a grip.
2122. Patrap
..weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee !!!!

2123. Patrap
<
the Cape verde season is starting, models are showing

2125. 7544
Quoting pipelines:
It's a tropical wave over Florida, that is all it is. There is no circulation, it has not been organizing, it's vorticity is not showing any signs of any future organization. I know everyone is a little antsy to get a system to track but come on guys, let's get a grip.


awwwwwwwwww dont be a blob pooper
One thing I don't like - the fact that many tropical waves are affecting Florida this year. While it is by no means uncommon, they seem to be coming in more abundance than usual. That seems to indicate that it is possible that these quick spinup type waves might get a chance to do something similar to Claudette, or worse Humberto. And in the long term, it might possibly suggest fully developed cyclones could take a path similar this season. It only takes one.
2127. Patrap


..Teacher leave them Kid's alone..
Quoting stormchaser19:
the Cape verde season is starting, models are showing



Look at the loop. Low hangs on for a few days in Eastern Atlantic but is long range.

Link
Quoting CybrTeddy:
One thing I don't like - the fact that many tropical waves are affecting Florida this year. While it is by no means uncommon, they seem to be coming in more abundance than usual. That seems to indicate that it is possible that these quick spinup type waves might get a chance to do something similar to Claudette, or worse Humberto. And in the long term, it might possibly suggest fully developed cyclones could take a path similar this season. It only takes one.
I told you Floridians to watch out this year.but does anyone listen?.Nooo.Anyway I hope nothing horrible comes down the road and effect Florida.They are still recovering from 04/05.
The Fairfield Creek Fire in Nebraska has grown to 150 square miles over the weekend, thanks in large part to the ongoing drought and continuous high temps. A sampling of the latter:

hot

hot
Quoting washingtonian115:
I told you Floridians to watch out this year.but does anyone listen?.Nooo.Anyway I hope nothing horrible comes down the road and effect Florida.They are still recovering from 04/05.


Floridians should look out every year and should always secure hurricane supplies before June 1st instead of having a mad dash to the produce stores 12 hours or so before landfall.
2132. ncstorm
updated HPC QPF map
Quoting Neapolitan:
The Fairfield Creek Fire in Nebraska has grown to 150 square miles over the weekend, thanks in large part to the ongoing drought and continuous high temps. A sampling of the latter:

hot

hot
Ha!.The high yesterday for my area was only 71 degrees.And it reached into the low-mid 80's today..unfortunately Mr Bermuda high wants to ruin all the fun for us.

CyberTed going 12 hours to the supplies store is the worst time possible.Some of the supplies you may be looking for may be all gone by then.
Quoting LargoFl:
....................well just the leftover rain around...guess i'll call it a night..............good night everyone...stay safe out there


I got rocked here once again tonight! I've lost count of how much severe weather I've had this rainy season! A house down the street from me had their siding on their house peel away, we had power issues for a while and it's all flooded againy. My area just keeps getting nialed time and time again. This has been like the world series of weather around here lately lol. Wind gusts topped over 60 mph around here, St. Petersburg had a wind gusts reported to 77 MPH
Remains at 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA DURING THE DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
90E remains at 80%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUL 22 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THIS LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


I am ready if a storm affects south Florida. I still have my batteries, canned goods, bottled water, Glad bags, etc. that I stocked up on in 2006.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Remains at 10%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA DURING THE DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

They actually stated there was a low this time.

That's progress!
Impressive damage and power outages from that line that blobbed through Florida earlier. Maybe, this won't get it's act together but it has caused TS force winds and damages in areas of Florida. I'm real curious to see what the next five hours bring, some real rapid changes have happened with this disturbance throughout the day.
2142. 7544
the bahama blob doesnt see to be moving is it staionary ? tia
2143. Patrap
Boxes and ZOOM are active

Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I am ready if a storm affects south Florida. I still have my batteries, canned goods, bottled water, Glad bags, etc. that I stocked up on in 2006.

Batteries might be dead by now and check the date on the water. But ummmmm....way2go......yeah!
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
cut-off blob



sounds painful...

: )

I supose we could revert to the glacial terms and call it a calved bloblet?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Maybe. After all, there's a first time for everything... ;-)

I'm wondering whether the "blob" will eventually spin up into anything. In fact, I'm hoping; it would be great to get some rain here before next week's predicted ridge sets in Sahara-izing us:

dry


They are overdoing the drying, I expect only a few drier days before normal coverage returns...
All that rain needs to go to the Midwest. We don't need it in Pcola.
I feel pathetic, watching the blob (s). What a strange hurricane season it is.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Impressive damage and power outages from that line that blobbed through Florida earlier. Maybe, this won't get it's act together but it has caused TS winds and damages in areas of Florida. I'm real curious to see what the next five hours bring, some real rapid changes have happened with this disturbance throughout the day.


The severe weather in Florida today was a combination of strong lift and moisture from the tropical wave combined with lots of instability and heat energy.
The severe weather was not a result of tropical development.
This Buoy near Miami says the pressure is rising...

Station FWYF1
NDBC
Location: 25.591N 80.097W
Date: Sun, 22 Jul 2012 23:00:00 UTC
Winds: E (100°) at 13.0 kt gusting to 15.0 kt
*****Atmospheric Pressure: 30.09 in and rising******
Air Temperature: 79.9 F
Water Temperature: 84.4 F

It registered 30.12 inches this morning and
30.04 inches a few hours ago.
The next AOI I suspect might be the area around 13n/33w as of now! SAL and shear keeping a damper on the Season so far and that's a good thing!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I am ready if a storm affects south Florida. I still have my batteries, canned goods, bottled water, Glad bags, etc. that I stocked up on in 2006.
Wait--you still have bottled water and batteries from six years ago? The water is probably safe and the batteries are probably okay, but you may want to consider rotating that stock. Just saying...
Quoting Jedkins01:


They are overdoing the drying, I expect only a few drier days before normal coverage returns...
Possibly...but NWS Miami isn't expecting a whole lot:

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LATEST STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS...SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBS, INDICATE A VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ATTM. NUMEROUS SHWRS AND
STORMS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH
AHEAD OF THIS AXIS. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN WAS INDICATED EAST OF THE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NRN BAHAMAS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA
WAS ALSO HELPING TO TRANSPORT MOST ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
WESTWARD. WL EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WAVE CONTINUES ITS
WESTWARD TRACK. GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT COULD
RANGE FROM THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF,
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
TONIGHT. GFS MOVES THIS WAVE NWWD TOWARD THE NE GOM AND IN DOING
SO KEEPS SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
COULD BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED AREAS AND ROADWAYS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

STRONG EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND AND
A DECREASE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD START TUESDAY AS THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SEWD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SE U.S. INCREASING
M/U LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER THE THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR PR/USVI TODAY
(SUNDAY) MAY PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WED/THU, BUT WL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.


We'll see. As for me, I'm keeping my fingers crossed. Some parts of Florida may be okay--Miami, for instance, is up more than 6 1/2 inches for this month alone--but we're still dry here, down 5.51" for the month and 8.06" since January 1.
Quoting Jedkins01:


The severe weather in Florida today was a combination of strong lift and moisture from the tropical wave combined with lots of instability and heat energy.
The severe weather was not a result of tropical development.


True…this is much ado about nothing.
Just joking Nea...I'm a hurricane veteran.
I know it wasn't tropical development that caused the damage earlier today in Florida. Should have worded it tropical storm force winds in some of the cells. Thanks for pointing out my wording error.
The SSE Bahamas is reading a 29.97 inches or 1015mb.

George Town, Exuma, Bahamas Lat: 23.50N, Lon: 75.77W
Current Conditions
Updated: 959 AM GMT-5 THU JUN 14 2012 Sun & Moon Information
Fair
Fair
Temp: 78°F

Humidity: 88%
Wind Speed: WNW 10 MPH
**********8Barometer: 29.97 in***********
Dewpoint: 75°F
Heat Index: 80°F
Wind Chill: 78°F
Quoting Jedkins01:


The severe weather in Florida today was a combination of strong lift and moisture from the tropical wave combined with lots of instability and heat energy.
The severe weather was not a result of tropical development.

Thanks for that sobering thought, Jed.

Has anybody with a trace of clout in this world considered that these things might just be a forerunner to the "X" atmospheric factor that Pat sniffed at earlier?

You got slush in the 90 Degree Arctic,blobs descending out of the blue yonder in the Caribbean/ GOM,the odd tornado in Poland, blue algae in Scotland, partial Medicanes off Italy, 15/C of the north coast of Greenland!Plus about half of the tropics SSTs globally running at 85/F or over.
Welcome to the 0012 season! ("new order of course!")

Just wait till things really get out of hand!
2158. beell
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They actually stated there was a low this time.

That's progress!


yes, they did.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA DURING THE DAY OR SO
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

2159. Patrap
More rain in Raleigh today. Very good sign that the drought is no longer a drought here.
2161. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:
..weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee !!!!

Man dat Nola grass must be good...:)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I am ready if a storm affects south Florida. I still have my batteries, canned goods, bottled water, Glad bags, etc. that I stocked up on in 2006.


Last year's supplies went into the cupboards and this year's are in the containers hoping we don't have to break them out!

*remembers to add a deck of cards to supplies*

Lindy

2163. Patrap
2164. 7544
the bahama blob is building more convection to the west at this hour stay tuned
2166. Patrap
ZOOM and Boxes are active

Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


Last year's supplies went into the cupboards and this year's are in the containers hoping we don't have to break them out!

*remembers to add a deck of cards to supplies*

Lindy



To be honest, I actually just watch what is going on in real time. Living here all my life, I know when I have to stock up on certain items before the masses realize what could happen.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Look at the loop. Low hangs on for a few days in Eastern Atlantic but is long range.

Link
I love how the high is just chillin out there over Bermuda. Like nope I'm not moving.
Got a taste of that blob.. Drove to The Hilton in Indian Harbor Beach. Low hanging wall cloud coming in from the ocean with bits of rotation as we are walking in. Was meeting people at the pool. Go through the lobby, got to the glass door just in time to see the wind hit. The scene was beach chairs flipping, umbrellas & cushions flying, glass breaking, a lot of tourists running. The door in front of me was held shut by the wind. Undaunted I shoved it open & got out in it before all the animated objects had dropped from the sky. Found part of the family, got their storm frightened child upstairs & back with it's mom. From the 10th floor looking east the wind was howling against the glass slider. Looking down at the beach the sand was flying from south to north. The guy trying to put lounge chairs away looked in pain from the sandblasting. Saw big lounge chairs rolling down the beach in the wind. Sand started burying towels, cushions & anything that was not swept up in the wind. Driving back down Eau Gallie every political sign was down the whole Blvd. A huge blow up eagle for advertizing was face down & limbs were everywhere.
Quoting Patrap:


..Teacher leave them Kid's alone..
..but Teacher I still want to learn..
2172. Patrap
A Very telling Loop..

Note how large the Overall is and where the CoC may be a forming tonight.

Pat, you still think this may become an invest?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
..but Teacher I still want to learn..

Pink Floyd, Dark side of the moon album I think!
2176. Patrap
Quoting PlazaRed:

Pink Floyd, Dark side of the moon album I think!


Pink Floyd, The Wall
2177. Patrap
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Pat, you still think this may become an invest?


Dunno..


50/50
2178. 7544
Quoting PlazaRed:

Pink Floyd, Dark side of the moon album I think!



nope george michels lol
2172 Patrap: Note how large the Overall is and where the CoC may be a forming tonight.

That's what I meant earlier by "...the center of somethin' big...passing through the Everglades..."
Quoting beell:


In the ATL Basin (excluding the far western Caribbean and BOC)? Madam Zelda, perhaps.
Hmmm. I'm having supper with Madame Zelda this evening and she said, "It don't matter if it's on a upward motion or a downward motion, long as it's oscillatin'."
:)

(T-55)
Good evening pottery.The ITCZ has climbed to 10N and that means more days of rain that dry ones for TT.
Quoting 7544:



nope george michels lol

Got that one a bit Wrong!
The Wall!
"We don't need no educationÂ
We dont need no thought control
No dark sarcasm in the classroom
Teachers leave them kids alone
Hey! Teachers! Leave them kids alone!
All in all it's just another brick in the wall.
All in all you're just another brick in the wall."

Too late now for a Sunday night. Night, night All .
2184. Patrap
whats strange is the pressure. se fl varies from 30.09 to 30.13 and all station indicate rising.
Check out the little anticyclone forming in the straits.
Cold summer in Alaska.

Link
Quoting floridaT:
whats strange is the pressure. se fl varies from 30.09 to 30.13 and all station indicate rising.


Link to Buoy Readings
Buoys showing rising pressures.
Still am sure everyone's monitoring for any changes.
night all
Getting a lot of virus warnings from this site tonight.
It's that time of day when pressure rises unless something is rapidly forming.
Dark Side Of The Moon was Pink Floyd's best though.
2195. bappit
Quoting floridaT:
whats strange is the pressure. se fl varies from 30.09 to 30.13 and all station indicate rising.

The atmospheric tide is coming in raising the pressures. Look at the graphs for the buoys and you'll see a regular daily pattern.
The blob as split into pieces!!!
Convection has waned some but you can still see the mid latitude circulation.
Once this system gets into the gulf, all bets are off and this system could take off. Shear is low and the water is hot.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


To be honest, I actually just watch what is going on in real time. Living here all my life, I know when I have to stock up on certain items before the masses realize what could happen.


Oh, no. Living here in the Virgin Islands, I've seen what happens at the grocery stores with the armed security guards at the doors, the lineups a mile long, the short-circuited attitudes of people. I prefer to just get what we need for two weeks, aside from gas, and let the others run around like chickens with their heads cut off. I just don't do the "panic mode" very well!

Lindy

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


To be honest, I actually just watch what is going on in real time. Living here all my life, I know when I have to stock up on certain items before the masses realize what could happen.


Sorry for the delay in my reply. Internet server is giving us hell this evening.

Living here in the Virgin Islands, I've seen what happens at the grocery stores with the armed security guards at the doors, the lineups a mile long, the short-circuited attitudes of people. I prefer to just get what we need for two weeks, aside from gas, and let the others run around like chickens with their heads cut off. I just don't do the "panic mode" very well!

Lindy

2201. Mikla
A reminder to be careful when driving in heavy rain. This happened today in So. FL during one of the heavy rain squalls...
My Jeep ended up having an encounter with a palm tree after hydroplaning off the highway...

Ooops...sorry for the double entry! I've no idea how that happened!

-L
2203. Patrap
One can Modify any Post, with the er, MODIFY COMMENT Button
Quoting Mikla:
A reminder to be careful when driving in heavy rain. This happened today in So. FL during one of the heavy rain squalls...
My Jeep ended up having an encounter with a palm tree after hydroplaning off the highway...



Are you fine after that?
2205. Patrap
Thanks, Patrap....I don't post often enough to figure these things out! One post deleted! Thanks so much.

Lindyt
2208. Mikla
A sore wrist and bruised ego, but otherwise OK... thanks for asking.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Are you fine after that?
Evening everyone...the GOM could get a tad interesting..
Quoting Mikla:
A sore wrist and bruised ego, but otherwise OK... thanks for asking.


Those bruised egos can be a beast to heal! Trust me, I know. Same goes for "foot in mouth" disease.
Bruised ego? I don't understand.
The most important thing is that nobody was hurt.
Methinks your Jeep looks totaled though..your wallet might be bruised. The things driving in heavy rain can do.
Snow can be difficult to navigate in up here in the Midwest, but heavy downpours may be up there with black ice. With blinding rains and black ice your up to nature's whims sometimes.
Is any of the reliable models developing anything out of the mess around Florida?
Quoting mobhurricane2011:
Is any of the reliable models developing anything out of the mess around Florida?


No.
Quoting Patrap:
One can Modify any Post, with the er, MODIFY COMMENT Button



well... um...
that would be nice,
but...

I find that the only posts I can modify
are the ones I type in myself....

; )

CRS
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


What a change during the past 12 hours from a well defined disturbance to a wimpy one.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


No.
thanks
Where is the mid level coc, I can see a broad rotation but cant find the center? Also what do yall think will happen when this hits the gulf? I think that it could develop with the right conditins. The disturbance should fill in tonight/tomorrow and we should see an invest in the next couple days imo.


850 Vort strengthening and expanding, but not where I thought it would be...
BORING!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Yeah, we received a whole .10" of rain and 20-25 mph gusts for a half hour or so. Big whoop. The tropical wave sure looked impressive earlier today. There is supposedly a 70% chance of rain for tomorrow.
On a different tropical note, the SAL is getting less intense and is getting reduced in coverage over E Atlantic.
Quoting Mikla:
A reminder to be careful when driving in heavy rain. This happened today in So. FL during one of the heavy rain squalls...
My Jeep ended up having an encounter with a palm tree after hydroplaning off the highway...


Glad you're OK, at least. Your car may be soon replaced, though...

Also, how did the tree fare? (just out of curiosity)
So, why is the waves getting killed as soon as it leaves Africa? Or it's the fact that it's still July?
No development is likely with this system...

Florida will receive another round of rain and storms tonight and tomorrow.

East coast will see rain before daybreak. Most of it will diminish as it moves inland until daybreak when rain will progress across state, strengthening as it approaches the west coast.

Severe threat will depend on amount of sun the state receives before the secondary wave moves through.

After the storms move out in the gulf tomorrow night, the blob will be finished.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


850 Vort strengthening and expanding, but not where I thought it would be...
Where did you think it would be? Even though convection has decreased the system should still organize and convection should rebiuld tomorrow.
Quoting washingtonian115:
BORING!
Its not that boring, atleast there is something to watch in our basin.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
So, why is the waves getting killed as soon as it leaves Africa? Or it's the fact that it's still July?
Shear and SAL kill the waves(mostly SAL) and it is still July. Things should start to get going in the next few weeks.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Shear and SAL kill the waves(mostly SAL) and it is still July. Things should start to get going in the next few weeks.
On top of that, many thunderstorm complexes that get going over western Africa look very impressive, but do not lack the structure to continue over the ocean. It takes a well defined low coming across the continent to survive the transition into the Atlantic.
2232. Mikla
The palm tree (about a foot in diameter) was pushed over and the car rode up on it quite a bit.

Quoting jeffs713:

Glad you're OK, at least. Your car may be soon replaced, though...

Also, how did the tree fare? (just out of curiosity)
There is a video here someone took near Pineda, at Rotary Park, on the river of the winds here today. Also said about 2500 lost power.

About 3:30 p.m., Melbourne police responded to the northern end of Pineapple Avenue after a man tumbled from a boat into the Indian River Lagoon during the storm.

He escaped injury, Sgt. Cheryl Trainer said.

Two men were trapped in a sailboat during a squall after the vessel struck the Eau Gallie Causeway, breaking its mast, Trainer said.

Another boater towed the sailboat to shore.
(I saw this going on when I came back over the causeway)

In Cocoa Beach, a strong gust sent a windsurfer flying into sand dunes by Doubletree Cocoa Beach Oceanfront, said Eisen Witcher, Brevard County Ocean Rescue assistant chief.

The windsurfer was not injured, he said.
I'm wondering if for the remainder of this summer Florida's (the Peninsula) weather will alternate between sunny/drier than normal and occasional tropical waves or fronts which for most areas bring less rain than our normal rainy season pattern would. This is the way last summer went.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
On top of that, many thunderstorm complexes that get going over western Africa look very impressive, but do not lack the structure to continue over the ocean. It takes a well defined low coming across the continent to survive the transition into the Atlantic.
Over Africa, the air is hot and very unstable which make waves look impressive. When that wave goes over the relstively cooler/stabler water, that wave weakens. Unless it has a defined low with convection and good enviorment conditions can it survive and then develope. Of all the waves that come off Africa only a hanfull or so develop into something unless conditions say otherwise(1997 & 2005 are two examples).
2237. Dakster
Quoting Mikla:
A reminder to be careful when driving in heavy rain. This happened today in So. FL during one of the heavy rain squalls...
My Jeep ended up having an encounter with a palm tree after hydroplaning off the highway...



That stinks... It did rain heavily down here. Glad you are ok.
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
I'm wondering if for the remainder of this summer Florida's (the Peninsula) weather will alternate between sunny/drier than normal and occasional tropical waves or fronts which for most areas bring less rain than our normal rainy season pattern would. This is the way last summer went.
In the next week or so, there will be the normal summertime pattern with t-storm chances everday. As for the rest of summer, I dont know. Here is the perdiction for the dry season:
2196 washingtonian115 The blob has split into pieces!!!

Still looks more like blades on the same fan to me. I'll wait for DiurnalMaximum.
2240. JLPR2
Next one has a nice spin but it's behind the convection, that might help it by moistening the atmosphere before it hits water.

Those TWs seems to be reaching farther north as the month progresses.

Quoting Tribucanes:
Snow can be difficult to navigate in up here in the Midwest, but heavy downpours may be up there with black ice. With blinding rains and black ice your up to nature's whims sometimes.
I feel pretty comfortable driving in most of the South, and especially in S FL, but I know I've pulled off the road a couple times when I've been caught in a heavy downpour, especially on roads I'm not familiar with. I remember some years ago I drove from Ft. Lauderdale to Atlanta via the FL turnpike and I-75. Just after crossing into GA, a torrential downpour forced me to pull over into the side lane. I literally could not see where I was going at around 3 p.m. because it was so dark and the rain was so heavy. Once the storm passed, I got back on the road, only to encounter the end of a traffic jam caused by a multi-car accident which occurred when someone lost control of their car in the inclement wx and crashed. Other vehicles piled into the first car because they couldn't stop in time - or didn't see the accident at all.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Shear and SAL kill the waves(mostly SAL) and it is still July. Things should start to get going in the next few weeks.
Thanks for explaining! Those early hurricanes is making me think this season is dead for good even though it's July. I think Atlantic will be scary one month from now :\
For anyone who wants to know or follows the wpac: TS Vicente is a 65mph storm with gusts up to 80mph, is moving at 6mph to the NNW, and is forecasted to becone a typhoon and make landfall in south China.
Quoting JLPR2:
Next one has a nice spin but it's behind the convection, that might help it by moistening the atmosphere before it hits water.

Those TWs seems to be reaching farther north as the month progresses.

Do you still have that model run that goes 100 hours out? XD.
Quoting JLPR2:
Next one has a nice spin but it's behind the convection, that might help it by moistening the atmosphere before it hits water.

Those TWs seems to be reaching farther north as the month progresses.



Also,the ITCZ has moved farther north in latitud to around 10N.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Thanks for explaining! Those early hurricanes is making me think this season is dead for good even though it's July. I think Atlantic will be scary one month from now :\
Your not the only one who thinks the season is dead even though its july, others think that as well. In the next few weeks waves will get more robust and we will have to really pay attention out there.
Quoting wxchaser97:
On a different tropical note, the SAL is getting less intense and is getting reduced in coverage over E Atlantic.


Not a good "SAL" link/image. Comes up every season. CIMSS doesn't do justice to the depiction of dust. SAL is basically two things: 1. Dry air, 2. Dust.

If you'd like a better depiction of dust it's better to use EUMETSAT. EUMETSAT DUST



Dust is not nearly as bad as CIMSS's image would have one believe. Factor? Yes, but only slightly comparatively. Dry air is certainly more of a factor than dust. Dust resides more in the mid-levels anyways - and, for that one can use the CIMSS mid-level water vapor and one can see it's not the killer that the commonly used chart projects.

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
No development is likely with this system...

Florida will receive another round of rain and storms tonight and tomorrow.

East coast will see rain before daybreak. Most of it will diminish as it moves inland until daybreak when rain will progress across state, strengthening as it approaches the west coast.

Severe threat will depend on amount of sun the state receives before the secondary wave moves through.

After the storms move out in the gulf tomorrow night, the blob will be finished.
Ah, the voice of reason... We're mostly not actually expecting anything. It's just a pleasure to have something to look at with even a chance of developing, no matter how small....

lol
2250. JLPR2
Quoting washingtonian115:
Do you still have that model run that goes 100 hours out? XD.


Ha! You remembered. XD
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Also,the ITCZ has moved farther north in latitud to around 10N.


That should give the waves a means of fighting the SAL.

August is just around the corner so a CV storm should form eventually.
Good stuff, MLC... duly plussed. How are u doing, BTW? I seem to keep missing u when u come in the blog...
2252. JLPR2
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Not a good "SAL" link/image. Comes up every season. CIMSS doesn't do justice to the depiction of dust. SAL is basically two things: 1. Dry air, 2. Dust.

If you'd like a better depiction of dust it's better to use EUMETSAT. EUMETSAT DUST



Dust is not nearly as bad as CIMSS's image would have one believe. Factor? Yes, but only slightly comparatively. Dry air is certainly more of a factor than dust. Dust resides more in the mid-levels anyways - and, for that one can use the CIMSS mid-level water vapor and one can see it's not the killer that the commonly used chart projects.



I noticed that some time ago thanks to this image.


Clearly different to the SAL map from CIMMS
Quoting JLPR2:


Ha! You remembered. XD

That should give the waves a means of fighting the SAL.

August is just around the corner so a CV storm should form eventually.


I have August 11 as my date for TC formation somewhere in the North Atlantic basin.
2254. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I have August 11 as my date for TC formation somewhere in the North Atlantic basin.


I forgot whether a storm is coming if avocado trees have many fruits or none, but I did notice my neighbors tree has nothing which is weird.

Do you remember how the saying goes?
JLPR2 ,it looks like the TUTT wont leave us for a while.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 PM AST SUN JUL 22 2012

.UPDATE...AN OVERALL DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE CAP PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECT HAZY SKIES AND
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ON TUESDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Good stuff, MLC... duly plussed. How are u doing, BTW? I seem to keep missing u when u come in the blog...


Baha, hey! I'm good. Just workin' harder these days. Ready to kick back like you down ways! ;) j/k. Hope you are well. I'm not on much, but peek in now and again to see what's going on and how bright these younger folks are - and, they're bright indeed. :)

Cheers. Have a GR8 night, keep watching. Always enjoy your posts. Thanks.


- JLPR2, you got it! ;) Thanks.
Quoting JLPR2:


I forgot whether a storm is coming if avocado trees have many fruits or none, but I did notice my neighbors tree has nothing which is weird.

Do you remember how the saying goes?


More Aguacates is a sign of threats to PR and less of them is we are in the clear.
2258. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
JLPR2 ,it looks like the TUTT wont leave us for a while.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 PM AST SUN JUL 22 2012

.UPDATE...AN OVERALL DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE CAP PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECT HAZY SKIES AND
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INCREASING SOMEWHAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ON TUESDAY MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.



Yeah, it's going to get very dry soon.

Ah, my allergies...
2259. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


More Aguacates is a sign of threats to PR and less of them is we are in the clear.


Huzzah! :)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Wait--you still have bottled water and batteries from six years ago? The water is probably safe and the batteries are probably okay, but you may want to consider rotating that stock. Just saying...Possibly...but NWS Miami isn't expecting a whole lot:

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LATEST STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS...SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBS, INDICATE A VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ATTM. NUMEROUS SHWRS AND
STORMS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH
AHEAD OF THIS AXIS. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
RAIN WAS INDICATED EAST OF THE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NRN BAHAMAS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA
WAS ALSO HELPING TO TRANSPORT MOST ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
WESTWARD. WL EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WAVE CONTINUES ITS
WESTWARD TRACK. GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT COULD
RANGE FROM THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH AN A HALF,
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
TONIGHT. GFS MOVES THIS WAVE NWWD TOWARD THE NE GOM AND IN DOING
SO KEEPS SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
COULD BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED AREAS AND ROADWAYS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

STRONG EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND AND
A DECREASE IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD START TUESDAY AS THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE WEAKENS AND DRIFTS SEWD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SE U.S. INCREASING
M/U LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER THE THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR PR/USVI TODAY
(SUNDAY) MAY PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WED/THU, BUT WL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.


We'll see. As for me, I'm keeping my fingers crossed. Some parts of Florida may be okay--Miami, for instance, is up more than 6 1/2 inches for this month alone--but we're still dry here, down 5.51" for the month and 8.06" since January 1.



Well, unfortunately your area has been a "dry spot" the entire rainy season. Why? I couldn't ever explain why. In fact it's these strange patterns in weather that transcend the prevailing patterns that dominate the overall weather for a region that intrigue me very much.

What I mean by this, is that there are continuous localized patterns that the weather will follow over a particular localized area for a while the continue to at least some degree despite what the overall area is experiencing.

For example, the past 2 years, it seemed that regardless of how high of chance of significant thunderstorms we would have, this area just wouldn't have a real good storm. We would maybe have 1 or 2 the whole summer while convection would almost always seem to have a mind of it's own and would just collapse always before reaching this area, even during the most ideal atmospheric setups for uniform widespread events, we would be the outlier who wouldn't get much...


Well now, it's the opposite this rainy season, it seems often whether the rain chance is 30% or 70% we continue to get pounded with intense thunderstorms. I have seen so many strong to at times damaging severe thunderstorms in the past several weeks I've lost count. Yes they are common in the rain season. I grew up with them. But we all the sudden stopped getting them, and now we seem to be getting more than ever.

With that said when rain chances increase again for your area, naturally one must expect a greater chance for heavy rain, but there are some strange patterns in weather that can't be foreseen such as I have described. Well, I suspect your area is experiencing what I have described...
Quoting WxGeekVA:
/>

850 Vort strengthening and expanding, but not where I thought it would be...


This setup is a good possible example of a Fujuwharic show. If we get one this year.
Quoting JLPR2:


I forgot whether a storm is coming if avocado trees have many fruits or none, but I did notice my neighbors tree has nothing which is weird.

Do you remember how the saying goes?
Neither of our trees have many fruit this year. I was attributing that lack of fruit to the very dry period we had in February and March, but you guys in PR actually had rain during at least part of that period....

Hmmm.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I feel pretty comfortable driving in most of the South, and especially in S FL, but I know I've pulled off the road a couple times when I've been caught in a heavy downpour, especially on roads I'm not familiar with. I remember some years ago I drove from Ft. Lauderdale to Atlanta via the FL turnpike and I-75. Just after crossing into GA, a torrential downpour forced me to pull over into the side lane. I literally could not see where I was going at around 3 p.m. because it was so dark and the rain was so heavy. Once the storm passed, I got back on the road, only to encounter the end of a traffic jam caused by a multi-car accident which occurred when someone lost control of their car in the inclement wx and crashed. Other vehicles piled into the first car because they couldn't stop in time - or didn't see the accident at all.
Being in MI, winter driving gets pretty ugly. Enven though im too young to drive, I still feel and see the effects of snow-covered roads. I've seen waaay too many snow related accidents in my young life.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Also,the ITCZ has moved farther north in latitud to around 10N.


Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Not a good "SAL" link/image. Comes up every season. CIMSS doesn't do justice to the depiction of dust. SAL is basically two things: 1. Dry air, 2. Dust.

If you'd like a better depiction of dust it's better to use EUMETSAT. EUMETSAT DUST



Dust is not nearly as bad as CIMSS's image would have one believe. Factor? Yes, but only slightly comparatively. Dry air is certainly more of a factor than dust. Dust resides more in the mid-levels anyways - and, for that one can use the CIMSS mid-level water vapor and one can see it's not the killer that the commonly used chart projects.


Thanks a lot!! That helps with looking at the enviorment for tropical storms. I'm always learning and everyone is teaching me stuff I had never heard/seen before this site.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I have August 11 as my date for TC formation somewhere in the North Atlantic basin.

Can you make it August 12th, thats my birthday. The next TS won't come soon enough, even though this is normal since its July.

Severe threat shifts into my neck of the woods tomorrow with high winds and hail.
HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID
90S. THE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY...AS WELL...
FORCING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

That answers everything for awhile and this is my 1000th comment.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Neither of our trees have many fruit this year. I was attributing that lack of fruit to the very dry period we had in February and March, but you guys in PR actually had rain during at least part of that period....

Hmmm.


Yeah,the normally dry months of March and April were very wet here and from Mid May thru all of June it was bone dry. July so far has been with above normal rainfall.
2265. Patrap
The most disturbing thing I've seen here this Spring/summer, is the no show of ALL of Audubon Parks Migratory nesting Birds. No Herons, No Blue Herons,and other birds that were actually expanding in the Oaks to the NEast as well.


I've been walking the same Course since 08 and its really disturbing to see no return this season.

Birds of Bird Island

The natural phenomenon of numerous species of wading birds can be seen up close in Audubon Park. Hundreds of birds nest on Bird Island each year—raising chicks and constantly making noise while bickering and begging. Some species of birds found on Bird Island include Great Egrets, Snowy Egrets, Cattle Egrets, Little Blue Heron, Tri-colored heron, Black-crowned Night Heron, Yellow-crowned Night Heron, Double-crested Cormorant and Anhinga.



Aububon Park, credit: Patrap Images
Quoting Patrap:
The most disturbing thing I've seen here this Spring/summer, is the no show of ALL of Audubon Parks Migratory nesting Birds. No Herons, No Blue Herons,and other birds that were actually expanding in the Oaks to the NEast as well.


I've been walking the same Course since 08 and its really disturbing to see no return this season.

Birds of Bird Island

The natural phenomenon of numerous species of wading birds can be seen up close in Audubon Park. Hundreds of birds nest on Bird Island each year%u2014raising chicks and constantly making noise while bickering and begging. Some species of birds found on Bird Island include Great Egrets, Snowy Egrets, Cattle Egrets, Little Blue Heron, Tri-colored heron, Black-crowned Night Heron, Yellow-crowned Night Heron, Double-crested Cormorant and Anhinga.



Aububon Park, credit: Patrap Images


Any potential thoughts as to why?

BTW, that picture is interesting, because you could probably take a picture of a wilderness park around the Tampa Bay area that would look almost identical to that. It's interesting how much of the gulf coast shares a similar climate and foliage.
When this blob heads into GOM, what are the chances of development? I am im in Northwest Florida so I am a little concerned.
I'm out for now. Here's my blog entry earlier today for those who missed it.

Quoting Civicane49:
Blog update:

Tropical disturbance forms near Florida; 90E becomes better organized
Quoting Patrap:
The most disturbing thing I've seen here this Spring/summer, is the no show of ALL of Audubon Parks Migratory nesting Birds. No Herons, No Blue Herons,and other birds that were actually expanding in the Oaks to the NEast as well.


I've been walking the same Course since 08 and its really disturbing to see no return this season.

Birds of Bird Island

The natural phenomenon of numerous species of wading birds can be seen up close in Audubon Park. Hundreds of birds nest on Bird Island each year—raising chicks and constantly making noise while bickering and begging. Some species of birds found on Bird Island include Great Egrets, Snowy Egrets, Cattle Egrets, Little Blue Heron, Tri-colored heron, Black-crowned Night Heron, Yellow-crowned Night Heron, Double-crested Cormorant and Anhinga.



Aububon Park, credit: Patrap Images


I'm an avid bird watcher and it is very disturbing not to see the birds come back. What the heck is causing that. Drought? The overly warm spring? Did they all just stay somewhere else to nest? If so,where? The weather is so unusual in so many places it has to be a factor.
I hate how this blog wishes away the great month of July.
Quoting wxgeek723:
I hate how this blog wishes away the great month of July.

Happy Birthday.
St. Petersburg Airport recorded a gust to 77 MPH today. That is very impressive for a Severe Thunderstorm. The other 3 times this summer I had severe thunderstorm warnings the maximum wind gusts were no where close to that. I live a few miles north of the Airport but was in Tampa when the severe storm hit St. Pete. It was pretty windy in Tampa but I was inside so it was hard to tell. I got back to St. Petersburg around 6 PM and saw some signs ripped off of shops and lots of palm fronds down. A few tree branches were down as well. I did not, however, see any structural damage on my drive from Tampa but then again I was north of the station.
The minor damage I saw is consistent with 40-50 mph winds but then again I did not witness the storm so who knows. It is possible that the highest winds were south and west of my area in Northeast St. Pete.

Go Figure. The big storms happen near my home when I am away lol. I must act as some kind of shield when I am home.

I have my camera ready in case we see a repeat of severe thunderstorms tomorrow. This time, if we see a ridiculous 77 MPH storm, which I highly doubt will happen, I'll upload it for all of you wunderbloggers to see.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Any potential thoughts as to why?

BTW, that picture is interesting, because you could probably take a picture of a wilderness park around the Tampa Bay area that would look almost identical to that. It's interesting how much of the gulf coast shares a similar climate and foliage.
Yep. I personally think the terrain and foliage along the gulf coast of Florida is a bit more interesting than the east coast of Florida :p
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Happy Birthday.


I wasn't even getting at that but thank you sir. You as well.

(Yours was today right?)
Trust me, folks... you'll wish you still have July in a month or two.
Quoting wxgeek723:


I wasn't even getting at that but thank you sir. You as well.

(Yours was today right?)
HAPPY BIRTHDAY WX732 hope you had an awesome day gbu.cory I leave you hbd in 3 pages back I think, anyways hbd for you to.
Still no surface low, the wave/boundary itself is still moving west away from the FL disturbance.
My third tropical Atlantic update of the day is just released...the most number I have written for a single day.

Unlike the previous two...this third one is a full update covering the whole basin as a I usually do daily. Yet again...I have updated the Florida blob disturbance in this update. This marks the 60th full update I have done this season...yipee!
Thanks WxChaser97 for your comment on my newest blog post...

As far as MI winter driving...c'mon it can't be that bad! We talked last about how I moved up here from NC...and I had never driven that much in the snow yet did it this past MI winter and with no problems. The key is to not overeact the steering wheel when your car starts sliding...that's what saved me a couple of times....













Classic looking severe thunderstorms I took photos of around here, I knew these would bring some brutal winds!
Disturbance of today looks more stationary now than moving north, the eastern most part is moving north and will probably move westward also; but as a whole I don't see it moving north too much. Two days of almost identical blobs over Louisiana earlier this week, wonder if tomorrow will be likewise for this one.
Quoting allancalderini:
HAPPY BIRTHDAY WX732 hope you had an awesome day gbu.cory I leave you hbd in 3 pages back I think, anyways hbd for you to.


Thank you sir!

Quoting Bluestorm5:
Trust me, folks... you'll wish you still have July in a month or two.


Finally someone gets it
Evening everyone... finally able to pop back on. Pat I have noticed the same thing regarding birds. No family in the mounted house this year and haven't heard them nesting in my abundant bamboo. Or seen them either. Just said that last week to my husband. Don't know why? Strange.....
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
St. Petersburg Airport recorded a gust to 77 MPH today. That is very impressive for a Severe Thunderstorm. The other 3 times this summer I had severe thunderstorm warnings the maximum wind gusts were no where close to that. I live a few miles north of the Airport but was in Tampa when the severe storm hit St. Pete. It was pretty windy in Tampa but I was inside so it was hard to tell. I got back to St. Petersburg around 6 PM and saw some signs ripped off of shops and lots of palm fronds down. A few tree branches were down as well. I did not, however, see any structural damage on my drive from Tampa but then again I was north of the station.
The minor damage I saw is consistent with 40-50 mph winds but then again I did not witness the storm so who knows. It is possible that the highest winds were south and west of my area in Northeast St. Pete.

Go Figure. The big storms happen near my home when I am away lol. I must act as some kind of shield when I am home.

I have my camera ready in case we see a repeat of severe thunderstorms tomorrow. This time, if we see a ridiculous 77 MPH storm, which I highly doubt will happen, I'll upload it for all of you wunderbloggers to see.



77 mph brief thunderstorms winds although are dangerous will not usually produce as wi
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Yep. I personally think the terrain and foliage along the gulf coast of Florida is a bit more interesting than the east coast of Florida :p



I agree! I'm not quite sure why that is either, we get these monster oak trees around here that look amazing.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Thanks WxChaser97 for your comment on my newest blog post...

As far as MI winter driving...c'mon it can't be that bad! We talked last about how I moved up here from NC...and I had never driven that much in the snow yet did it this past MI winter and with no problems. The key is to not overeact the steering wheel when your car starts sliding...that's what saved me a couple of times....
Your welcome, its when theres a big snowstorm and the crazy drivers still go fast on roads like 696, 75, woodward, or the mile roads and then cause wrecks that then just snowball. Its usually the people who are not used to snow driving who cuase the wrecks but in winter the most exoperiance driver can make a mistake. Also blck ice gets drivers up here and you cant see that.
Blog on 90e and FL system
Today showed just how fast we can go from nothing to a vigorous disturbance. Any chance this moves more WNW as opposed to NW?
Good if implemented:

Title: Lawmakers in Japan outline denuclearization bill
Source: NHK World
Date: July 22, 2012

Former Japanese prime minister Naoto Kan and other governing party lawmakers have announced an outline of a bill that would end Japan’s reliance on nuclear energy by 2025.

The draft outline says nuclear power generation could lead to infinite damages in the event of an accident. It adds that lack of final disposal measures will end up leaving future generations piles of radioactive waste.

[...]

The secretary general of the governing Democratic Party, Azuma Koshiishi, has been asking Kan to compile a plan on future energy sources.

[...]

More on the Draft

Reducing the number of operating nuclear power plants to zero
Promotion of solar, wind, and other sources of renewable energy to cut carbon dioxide emissions
Mandates the central government to create jobs in communities that host nuclear plants


Strong spining blob.... I mean a tropical blob

Don't think it will turn into a blorm or a blobricane


Quoting sunlinepr:
Strong spining blob.... I mean a tropical blob



You know the song from Queen...

And another one's down...
And another one's down...
And another one's down...
Another one bites the dust!

Sorry...not too enthused about t-waves from Africa just yet. SAL dust is still dominating...
TW maintains its shape through mid Atl....

Quoting wxchaser97:
Your welcome, its when theres a big snowstorm and the crazy drivers still go fast on roads like 696, 75, woodward, or the mile roads and then cause wrecks that then just snowball. Its usually the people who are not used to snow driving who cuase the wrecks but in winter the most exoperiance driver can make a mistake. Also blck ice gets drivers up here and you cant see that.
Blog on 90e and FL system

Hey...I drive on 696 and 275 every commute! Not so much on woodward or 75...those areas are east of me....

Yep...the problem is usually the other drivers...so on snowdays I try to leave earlier before the rush hour peaks...
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


You know the song from Queen...

And another one's down...
And another one's down...
And another one's down...
Another one bites the dust!

Sorry...not too enthused about t-waves from Africa just yet. SAL dust is still dominating...


It will be gone by tomorow....

Just keeping an eye on tropical blobs....
Quoting sunlinepr:
TW maintains its shape through mid Atl....


Why? The dust is still there...
Quoting sunlinepr:


It will be gone by tomorow....

Just keeping an eye on tropical blobs....


Do you literally mean in the next 24 hours? How do you know?
And its gone at least it give us something to talk...for today.

ABNT20 KNHC 230530
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE DIMINISHED. CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
2296. JLPR2
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Why? The dust is still there...


Dust moves so I guess the dust in the CAtl goes away and this wave might enjoy and spread the SALless hole in the EAtl. I guess that eventually the SAL or dry air will get it.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Do you literally mean in the next 24 hours? How do you know?


No, it may hold as a TW but no conditions for development yet...

The only thing that calls my attention is that GFS is starting to show TWaves or lows moving across the Atl..... thats the beginning of the set up for the CV season that climbs up until mid Sept....
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Hey...I drive on 696 and 275 every commute! Not so much on woodward or 75...those areas are east of me....

Yep...the problem is usually the other drivers...so on snowdays I try to leave earlier before the rush hour peaks...
On snowdays I dont have to go to schoo:) But on a serious note if you beat the rush you should be fine. Our street is a dead end boulivard street so it gets plowed LAST which sucks. My families house is juuuust off woodward and during winter every now and then we can hear a crash. We can also hear the woodward dream cruise which is in a few weeks.
The FL system has deffinatly lost convection over the past hours. Can it rebuild it we will see in the next day or so.
Quoting allancalderini:
And its gone at least it give us something to talk...for today.

ABNT20 KNHC 230530
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE DIMINISHED. CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Yep...it looks like complete junk on satellite imagery. CIMSS still shows upper divergence of +5 over the disturbance...associated with the warm core upper ridge it pumped over itself today. Admittedly though...these divergence numbers are much less impressive (they peaked at +40 at one point). Don't know what's killed this disturbance yet. My initial guess is upper convergence that is developing on the east side of the Gulf of Mexico inverted upper trough mentioned in paragraph P7 of my newest update...
2300. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:
TW maintains its shape through mid Atl....



I ran that and it looks good enough to possibly be 98L, but it falls apart. Eh, I would be happy with a pretty looking invest.
Mudslides in Austria leave 1 dead and isolates dozens of villages
Posted on July 23, 2012
July 23, 2012 – AUSTRIA - Heavy rains hit the province of Styria, in central Austria, causing floods, landslides and mudslides. One person has been killed in Austria after torrential rains triggered mudslides and flooding across several provinces. Whole provinces were inundated with rivers of mud. 360 people living in an alpine region were forced to evacuate their homes after a torrent of mud swept through. The rain has destroyed houses, cut off villages and damaged roads. More rain is forecast over the coming days. –Sky News

Beijing swamped with heaviest rainfall in 60 years- 37 dead, 50,000 forced evacuations
Posted on July 23, 2012

Link

Nooooo:( 000
ABNT20 KNHC 230530
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE DIMINISHED. CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Quoting JLPR2:


Dust moves so I guess the dust in the CAtl goes away and this wave might enjoy and spread the SALless hole in the EAtl. I guess that eventually the SAL or dry air will get it.

You can't keep a good blob down, it'll be back later today.
2303. wxchaser97 5:50 AM GMT on July 23, 2012

You'll get your storm sooner or later. Seems the NOAA is fairly optimistic that we'll get a formidable strike this year. Just FYI the B/A high should be weakening this week, look for possible development.

A quote from Dr. Masters post above.

"The potential for a landfalling tropical storm to bring drought-busting rains during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season led NOAA to predict possible improvement in drought conditions over the Southeast U.S."

Jeff Masters
Supposed to be a hot and stormy day with a slight chance of severe wx. Monday A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 97. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 10 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Stay safe tomorrow NC if storms build and anyone else affected by bad wx. Goodnight all.
Quoting Tribucanes:
You can't keep a good blob down, it'll be back later today.
Nope, but for now it has waned.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
2303. wxchaser97 5:50 AM GMT on July 23, 2012

You'll get your storm sooner or later. Seems the NOAA is fairly optimistic that we'll get a formidable strike this year. Just FYI the B/A high should be weakening next week, look for possible development.

A quote from Dr. Masters post above.

"The potential for a landfalling tropical storm to bring drought-busting rains during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season led NOAA to predict possible improvement in drought conditions over the Southeast U.S."

Jeff Masters

I know, just need that map to say improvement for MI, not development like it says. I dont want a strike on the US but just something to track.
See ya'll later today. What a good blog day, virtually no arguments or nastiness. Have a great one all.
Quoting Tribucanes:
See ya'll later today. What a good blog day, virtually no arguments or nastiness. Have a great one all.
Night Tribucanes, today was a great day on the blog and for me. I got $140 for my b-day at my family party. This is the latest thunderstorm outlook for today(july 23rd)
Im under a 2% tornado threat and a 15% wind & hail threat.Link


If this forecast becomes reality,it would have a 50-60kt storm directly into Hong Kong!
How's the Night Crew this morning?


Tropical Cyclone Vicente just offshore from Hong Kong.Sustained winds are 75mph,Gusting to 90mph,974mb


Vicente SE of Hong Kong. Hong Kong is located at 22.4N AND 114.0E,With a population of over 7,000,000.
Well;;;;;Goodnight to all! From America's Left Coast.


One last pic of Tropical Cyclone Vicente nearing the Chinese Coast.At this time models take it near Hong Kong and Macau.
2317. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
417 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-241000 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
417 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

JELSEMA
2318. LargoFl
2319. flslp
Lived in MI, MN, AK NC and drove in the snow. Had to move to Florida to hit my first deer!
Morning Largo, and everybody else out there.

So far this morning it's dry... and looking at the imagery it seems the TUTT has moved towards the northwest and is now over the Everglades.

Well, it was fun while it lasted...

Good morning... I think you could say TY Vicente underwent RI last night.

Link
2322. LargoFl
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning Largo, and everybody else out there.

So far this morning it's dry... and looking at the imagery it seems the TUTT has moved towards the northwest and is now over the Everglades.

Well, it was fun while it lasted...

..good morning and yes, no tropical storm out of this blob, but still some severe thunderstorms today later on with the sea breeze and day time heating, after today..back to normal for us
2323. LargoFl
Quoting flslp:
Lived in MI, MN, AK NC and drove in the snow. Had to move to Florida to hit my first deer!
..LOL..down here we drive carefully LOL
2324. LargoFl

Probably 80kts or so right now... Latest JTWC update has 65kts.
Good Morning All. All clear again on the Florida and Atlantic side. Back to July climatology with an 80% chance of another storm in the E-Pac. Gonna lurk until Dr. M posts a new entry. Have I missed anything?..... :)
Good morning. Up to 90%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM AT ANY TIME DURING NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

SOI back into the negative

Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day avg SOI 90 day avg SOI

24 Jun 2012 1011.98 1016.55 -41.19 -9.59 -5.34
25 Jun 2012 1010.72 1016.45 -49.35 -10.31 -5.85
26 Jun 2012 1010.31 1015.70 -46.96 -10.82 -6.29
27 Jun 2012 1010.79 1014.40 -34.44 -11.30 -6.59
28 Jun 2012 1011.50 1013.05 -19.96 -11.62 -6.68
29 Jun 2012 1012.75 1011.90 -3.09 -10.99 -6.45
30 Jun 2012 1014.69 1011.25 15.11 -10.20 -5.99
1 Jul 2012 1014.14 1012.30 5.48 -10.34 -5.77
2 Jul 2012 1012.39 1013.55 -12.99 -11.27 -5.64
3 Jul 2012 1011.71 1013.15 -14.71 -12.32 -5.43
4 Jul 2012 1013.71 1012.50 1.60 -12.40 -5.06
5 Jul 2012 1013.38 1012.95 -3.20 -12.14 -4.75
6 Jul 2012 1012.00 1013.05 -12.31 -12.09 -4.56
7 Jul 2012 1011.64 1011.75 -6.53 -12.01 -4.33
8 Jul 2012 1012.36 1010.35 6.52 -11.55 -4.07
9 Jul 2012 1012.47 1010.70 5.05 -10.92 -3.92
10 Jul 2012 1012.80 1010.80 6.46 -10.17 -3.76
11 Jul 2012 1014.09 1011.15 12.25 -9.06 -3.60
12 Jul 2012 1015.36 1011.45 18.22 -7.77 -3.48
13 Jul 2012 1014.97 1011.45 15.82 -7.16 -3.43
14 Jul 2012 1013.65 1011.25 8.92 -7.08 -3.39
15 Jul 2012 1015.43 1011.15 20.50 -6.65 -3.23
16 Jul 2012 1014.53 1012.20 8.49 -6.65 -3.18
17 Jul 2012 1015.39 1012.60 11.33 -5.98 -3.21
18 Jul 2012 1014.54 1013.10 3.02 -5.38 -3.39
19 Jul 2012 1015.05 1012.85 7.69 -4.47 -3.63
20 Jul 2012 1016.18 1014.35 5.42 -3.92 -3.85
21 Jul 2012 1016.61 1015.20 2.83 -3.37 -3.89
22 Jul 2012 1014.80 1014.20 -2.16 -3.36 -3.98
23 Jul 2012 1013.20 1012.95 -4.31 -3.22 -4.08
So, outside the sun is shining brightly, and it's also raining...

lol
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Probably 80kts or so right now... Latest JTWC update has 65kts.
I didn't expect Vicente to get that strong before landfall... RI?
Quoting Tribucanes:
See ya'll later today. What a good blog day, virtually no arguments or nastiness. Have a great one all.



Well sure. As long no one has a differing opinion, it's kumbaya.
Here is the am discussion from the NCEP Caribbean desk; all clear as well:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
746 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

NOTICE...THE INTERNATIONAL DESKS WILL EXPERIENCE AN INTERRUPTION OF SERVICES AUGUST 17-24 AS WE RELOCATE TO A NEW FACILITY. PRODUCTS WILL BE UNAVAILABLE DURING THIS PERIOD. PRODUCTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON AUGUST 27.

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. RIDGE PATTERN AND WELL ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DOMINATE THE ISLANDS LIMITING ANY CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHALLOW MARINE SHOWERS.MODEL ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE AT MID- AND LOWER LEVELS RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO AT 27-29N. THIS SUSTAINED A WELL ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT 850-875 HPA. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS PRODUCING BRISK EAST-NORTHEASTERLIES BETWEEN 925 HPA AND 700 HPA...WHICH WAS ALLOWING FOR FAST MOVING CELLS AND BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS. PWAT VALUES WERE LOW...IN THE 30-35MM RANGE.

MODELS SHOWING PATTERN GRADUALLY EVOLVING AS MID-UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZES TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL PLACE A DENT IN THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BY 42-48 HRS...ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY THEN. ALSO...ARRIVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL LEAD TO A TRANSIENT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WITH PWAT INCREASING TO 40-45MM DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW AXIS CROSSING THE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...AND BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION BEHIND THE WAVE AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE WETTEST SOLUTION IS THAT OF THE WRF-NMM...WHICH SHOWS MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 20-35MM/DAY. THE REST OF THE MODELS SHOW MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS WELL BELOW 1 INCH AS THEY AGREE THAT DEEPER MOISTURE POOL WILL REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH. WE
ARE GOING WITH THE DRIER TREND...YET EXPECTING LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION TO PRODUCE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-25MM/DAY MOSTLY IN EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING TUESDAY.IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE.

MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)


2334. bappit
Radar image at dawn showing three purple martin roosts and a radar spike from the sun appearing over the horizon. One roost is near Beaumont, another in north Houston and a less distinct one in southwest Houston. The roost at Beaumont is a bit more dispersed than the Houston ones. Those birds don't wait around!

The middle to end of August is when the MJO may move back to our side of the world. This could be bad news as I would expect that the US will get hit by a MAJOR Hurricane this year. I found this interesting from Doc's blog an I believe someone else on here mentioned this as well.

"The potential for a landfalling tropical storm to bring drought-busting rains during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season led NOAA to predict possible improvement in drought conditions over the Southeast U.S."

Jeff Masters


2336. bappit
What strong shear looks like--94L from three years ago.

2337. icmoore
Quoting Patrap:
The most disturbing thing I've seen here this Spring/summer, is the no show of ALL of Audubon Parks Migratory nesting Birds. No Herons, No Blue Herons,and other birds that were actually expanding in the Oaks to the NEast as well.


I've been walking the same Course since 08 and its really disturbing to see no return this season.

Birds of Bird Island

The natural phenomenon of numerous species of wading birds can be seen up close in Audubon Park. Hundreds of birds nest on Bird Island each year—raising chicks and constantly making noise while bickering and begging. Some species of birds found on Bird Island include Great Egrets, Snowy Egrets, Cattle Egrets, Little Blue Heron, Tri-colored heron, Black-crowned Night Heron, Yellow-crowned Night Heron, Double-crested Cormorant and Anhinga.



Aububon Park, credit: Patrap Images


Good morning everyone. Only .40" of rain yesterday but a whole lot of lightening and wind. Interesting clouds out early this morning.
That is very disturbing, Patrap, my first thought was the BP oil spill. What are your thoughts? I sure hope they can recover and begin nesting again soon.
2338. MahFL
Quoting StormTracker2K:
The middle to end of August is when the MJO may move back to our side of the world. This could be bad news as I would expect that the US will get hit buy a MAJOR Hurricane this year. I found this interesting from Doc's blog an I believe someone else on here mentioned this as well.

"The potential for a landfalling tropical storm to bring drought-busting rains during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season led NOAA to predict possible improvement in drought conditions over the Southeast U.S."

Jeff Masters




Yikes, that looks like along MJO period, 2 Aug to 1 Sep at least.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2340. icmoore
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Well sure. As long no one has a differing opinion, it's kumbaya.


Good morning, Doug and kumbaya my friend :) Thanks for getting that stuck in my head LOL!