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Historic 2012 U.S. drought: 6th greatest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:59 PM GMT on July 16, 2012

The great drought of 2012 is upon us. The percentage area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought increased to 56% by the end of June, and ranked as the sixth largest drought since U.S. weather records began in 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in their monthly State of the Climate drought report on Monday. The last time more of the U.S. was in drought occurred in December 1956, with 58%. June 2012 ranked as the 10th greatest U.S. drought on record, when considering the percentage area of the U.S. in severe or greater drought (33%.)


Figure 1. June 2012 ranked in sixth place for the greatest percent area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought, since record keeping began in 1895. Graphic created from data from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

The forecast: hot and dry with increasing drought
The great drought of 2012 is going to steadily worsen during the remainder of July. Recent runs of the global computer forecast models predict a continuation through the end of July of the large-scale jet stream patterns that have brought the U.S. its hot, dry summer weather. The most extreme heat will tend to be focused over the center portion of the county. That was certainly the case Monday, with temperatures near or in excess of 100° observed from South Dakota to Michigan. High temperatures near 100°F are expected in Chicago and Detroit on Tuesday, and over much of the Midwest.


Figure 2. Comparison of drought between June 2012 (top) and June 1988 (bottom) shows that drought conditions covered a similar proportion of the contiguous U.S., but the spatial patterns were different. The 2012 drought is especially intense over the Southwest U.S., but in 1988, this region experienced a very active summer monsoon season that kept the region moist. However, in 1988, the Northern Plains were much drier than in 2012. Image credit: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory.

A multi-billion dollar drought disaster underway
Agronomists and drought experts are comparing the scale and intensity of the 2012 drought to the 1988 drought. With the forecast offering little optimism, the costs of the 2012 drought are certain to be many billions of dollars, and the disaster could be one of the top ten most expensive weather-related disasters in U.S. history. Droughts historically have been some of the costliest U.S. weather disasters. A four-year drought and locust plague from 1874 - 1877 cost $169 billion (2012 dollars), and was arguably the most expensive weather related disaster in U.S. history (see Jeffrey Lockwood's 2004 book, Locust.) The costs of the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s, which displaced 2.5 million people, are incalculable. The costs of government financial assistance alone were $13 billion in 2012 dollars (Warrick, 1980.) The 1988 drought cost $78 billion (2012 dollars), the second most expensive weather disaster since 1980, behind Hurricane Katrina.

The associated heat wave of the great drought of 2012 is also a major concern. The heat waves associated with the great droughts of 1980 and 1988 killed between 7,500 - 10,000 people, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. The heat waves of the 1930s are blamed for 5,000 deaths. The death toll from the 2012 heat wave is approaching 100, including 23 in Chicago, up to 19 in Wisconsin, 18 in Maryland, 17 in St. Louis, and 9 in Philadelphia. The toll will undoubtedly grow as more heat-related deaths are discovered, and as the heat continues.


Figure 3. The U.S. has seen twelve weather-related disasters costing at least $15 billion since 1980, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Two of the top three most expensive disasters have been droughts.

Tornadoes kill one, injure ten in Poland
A series of rare tornadoes hit northern and western Poland over the weekend, killing one and injuring ten. At least 100 homes were destroyed, and one of the twisters measured 1 km (0.6 miles) in diameter. Tornadoes are quite rare in Poland. According to the publication, An updated estimate of tornado occurrence in Europe by Nikolai Dotzek (2003), Poland reports about two tornadoes per year, and probably has two more per year that are unreported. Thanks go to wunderground member beell for posting this link.


Video 1. Raw footage of the weekend tornadoes that hit Poland.

Jeff Masters

Drought Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


nope your wrong.
me and my GFs agree, alchohol is disgusting.
And despite the majority not, many people still agree with us.

Plus if im sober ill get them better than all the tipsy folks
Keep it up!!...You don't need booze to get chicks. I haven't drank in 10 years and I can't keep them away. lol
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good Day to everybody! Anything earth shattering going on?
There was a 5.0 earthquake in New Zealand...that was the most earth shattering event today.
Quoting jeffs713:

Did they even have beer back when you were in college?

I honestly don't drink much now that I'm in nursing school - I'm too busy studying.


Yes, they did. The ancient Pharaohs were quite fond of it. Why do you think they all walked sideways?
Quoting yoboi:


that's why ya should consume 14 a day....

Definitely not. Unless you want to die soon, that is.

Everything in moderation.
Quoting Abacosurf:
Keep it up!!...You don't need booze to get chicks. I haven't drank in 10 years and I can't keep them away. lol

Correct. I wasn't trying to encourage anyone to drink - but I was also trying to encourage an open mind in the future.
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, they did. The ancient Pharaohs were quite fond of it. Why do you think they all walked sideways?
Good morning Gro..It is true, if one brews his own, not only is it stronger, its healthier and you get a certain satisfaction out of it as opposed to buying a six pack at the store..I will be sending you a WU mail soon.
511. MahFL
Quoting jeffs713:
15. Beer is an effective social lubricant, fostering social interaction.


But it's not actually beer, it's lager.
Ocean Heat Content is already high enough to support a major hurricane in the northwest Caribbean if all other factors were great.

OHC may lack the coverage it has in the Caribbean the past few years, but it's much higher and extends to a much greater depth than the past few years.

I've drank a few times with friends or by myself... But I know my limits and I've never gone too far. And yeah, I'm underage but really, most junior/senior high schoolers and college kids do it... it's not that bad if you can control yourself and not do anything stupid like drive or something along those lines. But anyways, this is getting waaaaaaaaaaayyyyyy off topic, so we should probably resume discussing SOMETHING weather related.

Quoting allancalderini:
I1997 was a super el Niño I think meanwhile this one is not even a Niño until they declare it and I think it would be like in the end of September and if you are talking about landfalls then 2010 was not an active season after all even though it produce 19 name storms.


I understand that a season can be active even with no landfalls, and I also understand that it only takes 1 bad one to make an inactive season deadly (1992).

I just didn't see much of a similarity with the 2002 & 2004 seasons, other than perhaps how they ended. I thought 2004 was pretty active in both U.S. effects + overall storm activity. Whereas, 2002 IMO, was more like 1997, no, not "identical", but not all that active.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Definitely not. Unless you want to die soon, that is.

Everything in moderation.
I believe in that too..Everything in moderation, and live a longer and happier life. Some fairly healthy looking storms off of S.W. Florida...Waterspouts.?
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:



I wish I had a solar filter for my telescope,with all the recent activity and all. I don't think it would be too expensive.


Depends on the type of solar filter you want. Mylar ones are cheap but are low quality. Glass ones are much better but cost a little more (around $150).

Solar narrow-band H-alpha filters are very expensive, but also show the highest quality view of the surface of the sun (with all it's various convective features). A regular solar filter will allow you to see limb prominences and sunspots, but an H-alpha will show you a whole loty more. To give you an idea of cost, the 40mm Coranoda solar telescope runs around $500-$600, and almost all of that cost goes into the front lens filter. And that's a single purpose scope (solar only).

Also, as a safety note, never never never NEVER get a through-the-eye-piece solar filter. Always get an end-cap filter (and if you opt for mylar, regularly check for holes). Depending on the aperature of your scope, a through the eyepiece filter ranges from being a mere blinding hazard to potentially shredding your eyeball with shards of searing hot glass.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

1. Beer reduces the risk of having Coronary Artery Disease.
2. Beer is good for male potency.
3. Beer contains anti-oxidants.
4. Beer reduces the possibility of having blood clots.
5. Beer reduces the risk of developing kidney stones.
6. Beer softens the skin and lets it glow.
7. Beer relaxes the muscles and helps remove fatigue.
8. Beer boosts mental activity.
9. Beer strengthens bones.
10. Beer promotes the development of hemoglobin.(Hemoglobin makes the blood red)
11. Beer promotes romance.
12. Beer boosts self confidence.
13. Beer lowers bad cholesterol.
14. Ice cold beer tastes great. (lol)


15. It kills your liver
16. It messes with your nervous system
17. It destroys brain cells
18. It is a poisonous toxin for your body to remove
19. Helps promote cancer sometimes in esophagus
20 It messes with your kidneys
21. It can damage your stomach and intestines
22. It tastes horrible

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ocean Heat Content is already high enough to support a major hurricane in the northwest Caribbean if all other factors were great.

OHC may lack the coverage it has in the Caribbean the past few years, but it's much higher and extends to a much greater depth than the past few years.



That looks like home grown fuel for the fire.
I am not looking forward to fall. And Cuba should be a little worried as well.
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 PM EDT Tuesday 17 July 2012
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 29.71 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 5

Temperature: 94.6°F
Dewpoint: 69.6°F
Humidity: 44 %
Wind: W 19 gust 28 mph
Humidex: 110
Ex-Emilia is generating convection again...



Loopable by clicking
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


15. It kills your liver
16. It messes with your nervous system
17. It destroys brain cells
18. It is a poisonous toxin for your body to remove
19. Helps promote cancer sometimes in esophagus
20 It messes with your kidneys
21. It can damage your stomach and intestines
22. It tastes horrible


Not if you drink it in moderation. Those are the effects from drinking excessively.

Anyways, as geek said, we're way off topic. Back to weather.
Quoting hydrus:
I believe in that too..Everything in moderation, and live a longer and happier life. Some fairly healthy looking storms off of S.W. Florida...Waterspouts.?
\


Healthy looking storms building here in orlando as well.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


15. It kills your liver
16. It messes with your nervous system
17. It destroys brain cells
18. It is a poisonous toxin for your body to remove
19. Helps promote cancer sometimes in esophagus
20 It messes with your kidneys
21. It can damage your stomach and intestines
22. It tastes horrible



Beer has been helping ugly people get some "attention" for centuries...
Quoting hydrus:
I believe in that too..Everything in moderation, and live a longer and happier life. Some fairly healthy looking storms off of S.W. Florida...Waterspouts.?


Its been so cloudy over SW Fl all day. So the storms have been dissipating as they come on shore.
Quoting muddertracker:


Beer has been helping ugly people get (edited) some attention(edited) for centuries...


now weve really gone off the deeep end.

back to weather everyone :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 PM EDT Tuesday 17 July 2012
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 29.71 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 5

Temperature: 94.6°F
Dewpoint: 69.6°F
Humidity: 44 %
Wind: W 19 gust 28 mph
Humidex: 110


Now were talking Keep a dewpoint of 70 is like being in the Caribbean. You guys stay cool as this is just the beginning as it will only get hotter as we hit August.
527. MahFL
plus the taste of alchohol is so miserable..


Thats why the breweries invented alcopops, get the under 21/18's drinking sweet drinks with alcohol in them.
Quoting muddertracker:


Beer has been helping ugly people get some "attention" for centuries...



LOL!!
Cool pic from Tuscon, Arizona over the weekend.

Quoting spathy:


Its been so cloudy over SW Fl all day. So the storms have been dissipating as they come on shore.


I know right? If it's gonna be cloudy all day like this, it at least has to be windy. LOL. Wondering if we're gonna get any rain today. I have .01" on my gauge..
Very pleasent good afternoon to everyone. Just checking in to see what topics are being discussed. Had a few passing showers here in Antigua, nothing much. The sun is out again in all of its glory.

By the way Alchohol is always Master never Servant.
I agree with moving on to weather, please.... we're starting to beat a dead horse, and nobody is going to change their mind today, anyway.
533. MahFL
15. It kills your liver


It takes many many years of alcohol abuse to kill a liver. Also the liver has a remarkable abilty to recover if you manage somehow to beat the adiction in time.
Quoting muddertracker:


Beer has been helping ugly people get some "attention" for centuries...


One last thing, is at a party like 3 months ago I saved my bro from falling victim to said beer-goggle-itis... he almost got with some girl that looked like a cross between Sarah Jessica Parker and Ugly Betty... :0
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning all. GS, try my remedy for sore throats. Gargle with dill pickle juice. Works wonders. Even had people with severe strep throat swear by it after trying it. And if the soreness goes down the throat you can swallow some of the juice to kill the pain. Just watch out, because of the high salt content.

How's that stuff work on hangover's?
I have always found that protein and carbs are the cure for a hangover. As well as the "hair of the dog". I wouldn't want to drink the amount of pickle juice it would take to cure a hangover, if it ever would.
Quoting charlottefl:


I know right? If it's gonna be cloudy all day like this, it at least has to be windy. LOL. Wondering if we're gonna get any rain today. I have .01" on my gauge..

Its been drizzling all day.
I keep looking at the radar and thinking wow its going to hit at any time. And then nothing but drizzle.
Not that I mind its just there is no heating to maintain the storms as they move onshore.
This year's tornado season has been like the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

Quoting jeffs713:
I agree with moving on to weather, please.... we're starting to beat a dead horse, and nobody is going to change their mind today, anyway.


nobody has ever changed their mind on this blog that I know of.
Quoting spathy:

Its been drizzling all day.
I keep looking at the radar and thinking wow its going to hit at any time. And then nothing but drizzle.
Not that I mind its just there is no heating to maintain the storms as they move onshore.


Yep, 78 degrees at 1:13pm during summer in FL and it's not even raining. Strange, it is...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ocean Heat Content is already high enough to support a major hurricane in the northwest Caribbean if all other factors were great.

OHC may lack the coverage it has in the Caribbean the past few years, but it's much higher and extends to a much greater depth than the past few years.



The area it covers is where the significance exists, however. We don't have half the heat in the Atlantic as we've had the past couple of years. Less heat means less heat to take away via tropical cyclones. In essence, we have fewer tropical cyclones. An oncoming El Nino possibility does not help matters either. El Nino or not, this looks like an average season unless something drastically changes.

2011:



2012:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This year's tornado season has been like the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.



how so?
seems more like the 2012 snow and hurricane seasons.
Although i suspect the hurricane season may not follow this trend.
But then again, its a consistent trend, you never know
Quoting spathy:


Its been so cloudy over SW Fl all day. So the storms have been dissipating as they come on shore.


Hi spathy. I work near the Bell Tower. We'd had probably .10 inch of rain this morning. I got 3.86 inches at home last night
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


how so?

Below average.
Quoting muddertracker:


Beer has been helping ugly people get some "attention" for centuries...


yeah, but, usually attention by other ugly people, lol. If you can't get a "9" or a "10" sober, chances are pretty good you're not getting either of those through drinking. However, I'm sure the old adage still applies though...."at 10 (pm) shes a 2, and at 2 (am) she's a 10...lol.
wow guys the TCHP is very high compaired to almost every year from 2005-2011 in the caribbean more so in the W caribbean

Quoting jeffs713:

Correct. I wasn't trying to encourage anyone to drink - but I was also trying to encourage an open mind in the future.
Beer: The cause of, and solution to, all of life's problems.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Below average.


that part is true.
I was looking too deeply, past the obvious, at HOW it ended up below average.
All of 2009s storms came late in the season, and all of 2012s tornadoes came early, so i missed the similarity.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Hi spathy. I work near the Bell Tower. We'd had probably .10 inch of rain this morning. I got 3.86 inches at home last night


Hi FMG :O)

Some spectacular window rumbling lightning huh.
I got 2.75" yesterday. My new Buffalo grass is nice and green now.
As much as we are hyping over the potential for a storm or storms to form along the front that move off of the east coast next week, I am not buying it. The latest GFS run only forms one low, and it is completely frontal in nature...



Click for loop
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Hi spathy. I work near the Bell Tower. We'd had probably .10 inch of rain this morning. I got 3.86 inches at home last night
I remember when the Bell Tower was built. Late 70,s I believe.
551. yoboi
Quoting muddertracker:


Beer has been helping ugly people get some "attention" for centuries...


i thought that is why the invented the light switch..
Quoting MississippiWx:


The area it covers is where the significance exists, however. We don't have half the heat in the Atlantic as we've had the past couple of years. Less heat means less heat to take away via tropical cyclones. In essence, we have fewer tropical cyclones. An oncoming El Nino possibility does not help matters either. El Nino or not, this looks like an average season unless something drastically changes.

2011:



2012:

ill have to disagree with you my friend. if wind shear is favorable throughout the atlantic during august and september, what we will see is instead of storms forming south or south west of the cape verde islands, they will form about 100 miles east of the leeward islands. the waters will continue to warm throughout the summer and if something gets in the gulf and shear and dry air is non existent then there will be a BIG problem and thats why i see this season slightly above average 12-15 storms
Good afternoon. It's just hot here.


Fair
88°F
31°C
Humidity62%
Wind SpeedCalm
Barometer30.01 in
Dewpoint73°F (23°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index96°F (36°C)

Cliff Clavin's Buffalo Theory (on beer) ;-)
There has to be some locally heavy rainfall totals in Florida over the past 48 hrs.
Any More Floridians got some more totals to share?
556. ARiot
TN Valley should be interesting again this afternoon through Thursday at least. Just Severe T-Storm chances. Didn't hear any Tornadic predictions and don't think conditions favor them right now.

Very hot, very humid air covering a large area. Not much mixing going on. (Probably a good thing.)

In N. Alabama, we got another 1" on top of the nearly 5" from the drought-busting low that stalled out last week. (Sadly some parts just east of me are still technically in drought. It's a county by county thing since much of the recent showers were isolated.)

Stay safe.
This season will be like 2006 hands down!
Quoting spathy:
There has to be some locally heavy rainfall totals in Florida over the past 48 hrs.
Any More Floridians got some more totals to share?


We've been doing pretty good lately, but yesterday it was .05" and today it's .01" so far, not so sure I like that pattern. We can go back to how it was earlier this week :0)
Quoting charlottefl:


We've been doing pretty good lately, but yesterday it was .05" and today it's .01" so far, not so sure I like that pattern. We can go back to how it was earlier this week :0)


Ditto that.
Normal late afternoon storms are the best.
Not to mention we will soon be running out of the weeks left in the rainy season.
What 9 weeks left?
We will have at least a couple of potent hurricanes eventually. It's inevitable, even in El Nino years. We just have to hope we can remain lucky, with steering currents taking those hurricanes out to sea. The law of averages will win out eventually, though.
Quoting charlottefl:
Had to do it guys (not directed at anyone, just thought I would inject some humor into the conversation):

god, he's ugly!
562. yoboi
why do more people get off with an atl storm than a pac storm???? is it weather ya want to see or loss of life and destruction???
Quoting spathy:


Ditto that.
Normal late afternoon storms are the best.
Not to mention we will soon be running out of the weeks left in the rainy season.
What 9 weeks left?


Yeah, and then probably back to being dry, but if El Nino decides to stick around through the winter maybe not....
good afternoon folks.. Good to be back:)
Quoting weatherbro:
This season will be like 2006 hands down!
Yeah the SAL is quite similar. 2002 is a good analog as well in terms of the thinking of the steering currents which show more of an east to west steering as opposed to recurvatures.
Quoting weatherh98:
good afternoon folks.. Good to be back:)


Harrison, good to see ya, why werent you back yesterday?
Quoting spathy:


Hi FMG :O)

Some spectacular window rumbling lightning huh.
I got 2.75" yesterday. My new Buffalo grass is nice and green now.


Good to see you too spathy.
LOL means with all this rain it will grow fast and the mower will work overtime. BTW the orchids are not looking too good. Not sure if MrFM over or under watered them... (:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Harrison, good to see ya, why werent you back yesterday?


I was to tired to get the computer and or my phone
Quoting MississippiWx:
We will have at least a couple of potent hurricanes eventually. It's inevitable, even in El Nino years. We just have to hope we can remain lucky, with steering currents taking those hurricanes out to sea. The law of averages will win out eventually, though.
To add to this wind shear will certainly play apart once storms get cranking. The first place to look for changes is the Eastern Caribbean. I like to use storms like Erika and Chris as examples, storms that were forecasted to strengthen into hurricanes only to get ripped apart by shear.
Quoting weatherbro:
This season will be like 2006 hands down!


2006:



2012:



...Yeah...not seeing it.
Quoting yoboi:


i thought that is why the invented the light switch..


Nice!

It has rained four out of seven days in Cedar Park! In July! Wonderful things happen when a gigantic H isn't parked over your state!
Quoting yoboi:
why do more people get off with an atl storm than a pac storm???? is it weather ya want to see or loss of life and destruction???


Im not even going to front..I dont want to see anyone lose their property or anyone experience loss of life but there is an adrenalin rush for me personally when there is an approaching storm and yes I have experienced MANY hurricanes and have lost property behind it..its nature, there's nothing you can do about it..
Quoting hydrus:
I remember when the Bell Tower was built. Late 70,s I believe.


I think you are right hydrus. You wouldn't recognize it now. They have added quite a few stores
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Harrison, good to see ya, why werent you back yesterday?


Btw you arent going to find a faster 14 and under 100M backstroker in louisiana :)
Quoting weatherh98:


I was to tired to get the computer and or my phone


i kno the feeling all too well.
Quoting jeffs713:
15. Beer is an effective social lubricant, fostering social interaction.


It also makes me look hot to others
Quoting yoboi:
why do more people get off with an atl storm than a pac storm???? is it weather ya want to see or loss of life and destruction???
..that is a good question, me i'd like nothing better than to see no hurricanes form at all, but then in a way they serve a purpose, taking heat OUT of the oceans and giving lots of rain wherever they go..the destructive parts one must overlook
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i kno the feeling all too well.


I also made the zone team. Going to DALLAS!!!
...some dangerous lightning out there, be careful folks
582. yoboi
Quoting muddertracker:


Nice!

It has rained four out of seven days in Cedar Park! In July! Wonderful things happen when a gigantic H isn't parked over your state!


i have had rain everyday going on 2 weeks now.....
Quoting weatherh98:


Btw you arent going to find a faster 14 and under 100M backstroker in louisiana :)


1:05.93 seconds
i split a 32.85 going down and a 33.08 coming back. Th kid next to me went out in a 31.58 came back in a 34.77 it was way cool to race.
Quoting yoboi:
why do more people get off with an atl storm than a pac storm???? is it weather ya want to see or loss of life and destruction???
I think it is because of all the Islands in the way, then of course CA and USA. We can't stop them, so might and well get on the wagon and predict (for me is is guessing) where the storm will go. I equate it to adult pinball. Ever play pinball? LOL I guess I am giving away my age.
HEY..they woke up Finally...................................SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 488 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC013-029-037-039-045-047-063-065-067-073-077-07 9-121-123-129-
180000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0488.120717T1650Z-120718T0000Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CALHOUN DIXIE FRANKLIN
GADSDEN GULF HAMILTON
JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LEON LIBERTY MADISON
SUWANNEE TAYLOR WAKULLA
$$
Quoting LargoFl:
...some dangerous lightning out there, be careful folks


Yeah over me:/ It is absolutely insane here right now. Lighting every second and blinding rain right now.
Typically Georgia and Gulf states depend on landfall from TS and greater to reach average yearly rainfall. Landfall storms don't mean only disaster, they can be very beneficial. And of coarse we are more excited by Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf storms. They are potentially dangerous, impact is in many of our bloggers back yards, and they cause a frenzy of conversation about said storm. Hopefully no one roots for a horrible cane, but we don't choose where Mothernature sends em. It's okay to get excited about "The Big One", love the science and nature of the beast, hate what it does to the public.
588. CJ5
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This year's tornado season has been like the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.



The anti GW croud should parade this chart. When the trend was different earlier in the year it was a focus point for the pro GW crowd. Just saying.
Quoting weatherh98:


Btw you arent going to find a faster 14 and under 100M backstroker in louisiana :)


1:05 nice, a little faster and youll catch kris.
seems you are a medium distance guy.
Know a kid who went a :28 50bk at 12 to set a record and then quit to play baseball.
Dont follow.


but on a weather note, i assume the weather was nice down there?
590. yoboi
Quoting kwgirl:
I think it is because of all the Islands in the way, then of course CA and USA. We can't stop them, so might and well get on the wagon and predict (for me is is guessing) where the storm will go. I equate it to adult pinball. Ever play pinball? LOL I guess I am giving away my age.


yeah i once played pinball an twister at the same time...
Quoting FtMyersgal:


I think you are right hydrus. You wouldn't recognize it now. They have added quite a few stores
Last time I was in Fort Myers, it looked like Miami.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


1:05 nice, a little faster and youll catch chris.
seems you are a medium distance guy.
Know a kid who went a :28 50bk at 12 to set a record and then quit to play baseball.
Dont follow.


but on a weather note, i assume the weather was nice down there?


not really. in the relay i split a 31.14 50 back... oh and i went a 27.69 in the free.

kris has the state record... 101 for a 14 year old
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Good to see you too spathy.
LOL means with all this rain it will grow fast and the mower will work overtime. BTW the orchids are not looking too good. Not sure if MrFM over or under watered them... (:


Not so fast on the grass growing and endless mowing.
Buffalo grass only gets 4" tall.
I have only mowed it 2x sense last Sept! And the lawn didnt seem to like it!
LOVE IT!

Now the grass/weeds in the back yard have to be mowed every week.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah over me:/ It is absolutely insane here right now. Lighting every second and blinding rain right now.
..whew, be careful out there,and stay away from the landline phones too, if i remember right a charge could travel thru the lines if a line is hit
596. yoboi
Quoting Tribucanes:
Typically Georgia and Gulf states depend on landfall from TS and greater to reach average yearly rainfall. Landfall storms don't mean only disaster, they can be very beneficial. And of coarse we are more excited by Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf storms. They are potentially dangerous, impact is in many of our bloggers back yards, and they cause a frenzy of conversation about said storm. Hopefully no one roots for a horrible cane, but we don't choose where Mothernature sends em. It's okay to get excited about "The Big One", love the science and nature of the beast, hate what it does to the public.



yeah i was just asking....when was the last major to hiit the us??? wilma????
Quoting weatherh98:


not really. in the relay i split a 31.14 50 back... oh and i went a 27.69 in the free.

kris has the state record... 101 for a 14 year old


chat?
plse note: EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING.................................SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
119 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

FLZ040-171800-
MARION-
119 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN MARION
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

AT 118 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SEVERAL
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MARION COUNTY...SHOWING LITTLE
MOVEMENT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND WEIRSDALE...
SILVER SPRINGS SHORES...OCKLAWAHA...MOSS BLUFF...LAKE WEIR...
SUMMERFIELD...SANTOS AND BELLEVIEW THROUGH 200 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY DUE TO VERY SLOW STORM
MOTION...THIS CAN RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAT...LON 2900 8238 2912 8240 2916 8164 2905 8164
2904 8165 2896 8166 2895 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1718Z 090DEG 1KT 2901 8201
12z CMC


Quoting spathy:
There has to be some locally heavy rainfall totals in Florida over the past 48 hrs.
Any More Floridians got some more totals to share?


Hey spathy. Been dry as a bone in my area. .23 inches all month and none the last 4 days of June once Debby passed.
Quoting LargoFl:
..whew, be careful out there,and stay away from the landline phones too, if i remember right a charge could travel thru the lines if a line is hit


I know this sounds paranoid but also remember to not shower or wash your hands during a Fl thunderstorm.
Dont worry about using the restroom. Thats a broken stream and wont conduct.
Quoting ncstorm:

Whoa! Almost every spot in the country has a chance of rain or tstms
Quoting spathy:


I know this sounds paranoid but also remember to not shower or wash your hands during a Fl thunderstorm.
Dont worry about using the restroom. Thats a broken stream and wont conduct.
..thats right too
Quoting Articuno:

Whoa! Almost every spot in the country has a chance of rain or tstms
some area's really could use it too
606. yoboi
Quoting CJ5:


The anti GW croud should parade this chart. When the trend was different earlier in the year it was a focus point for the pro GW crowd. Just saying.



what chart??
...................................right near me geez
Quoting hydrus:
Last time I was in Fort Myers, it looked like Miami.


LOL. When I moved here in '82 Daniels Parkways as a 2 lane partly dirt road. It's now a six lane divided highway all the way to Lehigh Acres. Times change. BTW, you definately would not recognize Miami!
Quoting StAugustineFL:


Hey spathy. Been dry as a bone in my area. .23 inches all month and none the last 4 days of June once Debby passed.


WOW!
Thats Fl for ya I guess.
That also could be because you did some planting of trees.
Its the antithesis of washing your car.
Severe thunderstorm watch in effect

Extreme heat and high humidex in effect.



Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 2:00 PM EDT Tuesday 17 July 2012
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 29.69 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 5

Temperature: 97.2F
Dewpoint: 70.0F
Humidity: 42 %
Wind: W 17 gust 32 mph
Humidex: 112
612. yoboi
Quoting spathy:


I know this sounds paranoid but also remember to not shower or wash your hands during a Fl thunderstorm.
Dont worry about using the restroom. Thats a broken stream and wont conduct.


not true people die all the time on toliet due to electric shock if ya have metal pipes good chance ya gettin a shock if ya have pvc not such a good chance...
And for everyone who was here when I said I was going to do the case for creation blog; I had a huge personal disaster hours after posting that I was going to do it. One of the biggest in my entire life; and I'm old. I'm going to pray on it, but I'm taking it as a sign to not do my blog at this time. I am a man of my word, this was just a freak event, and the timing of it was bizarre to say the least. Hope you all are well, except you teenagers who are smart, athletic, and funny. Youth and their abilities makes me feel old. :)
614. yoboi
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 2:00 PM EDT Tuesday 17 July 2012
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 29.69 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 5

Temperature: 97.2°F
Dewpoint: 70.0°F
Humidity: 42 %
Wind: W 17 gust 32 mph
Humidex: 112


how hott it suppose to get there???
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


2006:



2012:



...Yeah...not seeing it.


I'm talking mostly in terms of El Nino and the way troughs have been stronger off the east coast like that year(that year even featured a major heat wave in the east).

I'm thinking the Burmuda ridge will be greatly weakened in the next several weeks.
Quoting spathy:


I know this sounds paranoid but also remember to not shower or wash your hands during a Fl thunderstorm.
Dont worry about using the restroom. Thats a broken stream and wont conduct.
I think it is because of the porcelain bowl. Ever notice the resistors on electric poles are or were made of porcelain.
617. yoboi
Quoting Tribucanes:
And for everyone who was here when I said I was going to do the case for creation blog; I had a huge personal disaster hours after posting that I was going to do it. One of the biggest in my entire life; and I'm old. I'm going to pray on it, but I'm taking it as a sign to not do my blog at this time. I am a man of my word, this was just a freak event, and the timing of it was bizarre to say the least. Hope you all are well, except you teenagers who are smart, athletic, and funny. Youth and their abilities makes me feel old. :)


could have also been a sign to make sure ya would do it......
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Severe thunderstorm watch in effect

Extreme heat and high humidex in effect.



Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 2:00 PM EDT Tuesday 17 July 2012
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 29.69 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 5

Temperature: 97.2%
Dewpoint: 70.0%
Humidity: 42 %
Wind: W 17 gust 32 mph
Humidex: 112


That makes the weather around here "chilly".

Observed at:
Montreal-Trudeau Int'l Airport
Date: 2:00 PM EDT Tuesday 17 July 2012
Condition: Cloudy

Pressure: 29.55 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 12 miles
Temperature: 84.9F
Dewpoint: 72.1F
Humidity: 66 %
Wind: SW 6 mph
Humidex: 102
.................a very dangerous day in central florida alright
Quoting LargoFl:
...................................right near me geez


Woah, gusting to 57 mph...and Clearwater Beach is not even in the most intense, blue color.
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Woah, gusting to 57 mph...and Clearwater Beach is not even in the most intense, blue color.
amazing,, by me the tree's are swaying but not that bad, clearwater must be really getting it
Quoting kwgirl:
I think it is because of the porcelain bowl. Ever notice the resistors on electric poles are or were made of porcelain.
that is correct, porcelain is non-conductive.
For sure Yobi, just have been in emotional shell shock like never before since this happened. What's the old saying, "If you want to make God laugh, tell him your plans." No matter how incredibly bad it seems, I always try to remind myself that I still have it better than 90% of the people on the planet. Self pity is a disease in America that I don't want to catch. Life just really really sucks for all of us sometimes, and that's just how it is.
Quoting yoboi:


not true people die all the time on toliet due to electric shock if ya have metal pipes good chance ya gettin a shock if ya have pvc not such a good chance...


HUMMM?
I guess I was looking at it from the male point of standing while ......

Being seated on the porcelain God could very well be a problem as well.
Good catch :O)
Quoting spathy:


HUMMM?
I guess I was looking at it from the male point of standing while ......

Being seated on the porcelain God could very well be a problem as well.
Good catch :O)

Afterall,some of us sometimes accidentally dip into the pool so to speak.
I'm out for a couple hours, hope all have a great day. Lightening has come through the land phone line several times for me. Wild to see, and scary. Stay safe out there. Florida has more golf courses and more lightening hits than any other state; coincidence?
Say what? ;-)

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2012, DB, O, 2012071718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912012
AL, 91, 2012071718, , BEST, 0, 398N, 552W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ORLY?
630. yoboi
Quoting Minnemike:
that is correct, porcelain is non-conductive.



that's not really a true statement everything is conductive to a certain degree....
Quoting Articuno:

Whoa! Almost every spot in the country has a chance of rain or tstms


We just had a very rare thunderstorm here in NoCal this morning.

And our fourth rain since the first of June. That's 2-3 more than normal. Wettest summer I can remember in 20 years.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Severe thunderstorm watch in effect

Extreme heat and high humidex in effect.



Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 2:00 PM EDT Tuesday 17 July 2012
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 29.69 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 5

Temperature: 97.2�F
Dewpoint: 70.0�F
Humidity: 42 %
Wind: W 17 gust 32 mph
Humidex: 112

Ug. I'll never forget I played in a softball tournament in Toronto about 10-15 years ago in early July. The temp was 95 (35 C) and it was so dang hot. The coolest place in the city was the subway. Yup 95 in FL a lot easier to deal with than Toronto. The awards ceremony were held in a curling arena.... no air conditioning..... ahhhhh I remember those days...lol
Quoting Neapolitan:
Say what? ;-)

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2012, DB, O, 2012071718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912012
AL, 91, 2012071718, , BEST, 0, 398N, 552W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ORLY?


wait what, 91?
fake?
Quoting yoboi:



that's not really a true statement everything is conductive to a certain degree....


True.
All it takes is an arc to bypass any non conductive or limited conductive substance.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


LOL. When I moved here in '82 Daniels Parkways as a 2 lane partly dirt road. It's now a six lane divided highway all the way to Lehigh Acres. Times change. BTW, you definately would not recognize Miami!
I can tell you how much things have changed in Fort Myers since the 1960,s, but it would take to long. I will tell you that it was a fairly small place back then compared to what is now. My Father worked for Duane Hall Surveying in the 60,s and lived on Gladiolus Dr. The Edison Mall was smaller and had a movie theater and a game room called the Fun Tunnel. There was also a Skate Board park across 41 where The Bee Factory is or was. It went out of business in the early 80,s and was grow over by woods. We had property in Island Park when there was nothing there but a few houses. We used to pick up pieces of a helicopter that crashed there off of Island Park road...The memories..:)
Quoting BobWallace:


We just had a very rare thunderstorm here in NoCal this morning.

And our fourth rain since the first of June. That's 2-3 more than normal. Wettest summer I can remember in 20 years.


Just goes to show....
If its x here then its y somewhere else.
Displacement/balance/Newtons law.
Or even Nature abhors a vacuum.

Even if we are screwing with the weather,Nature finds a way to balance.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


wait what, 91?
fake?
I don't think so look at atlanticLink
... Funnel clouds are possible in northern Hillsborough and southern
Pasco counties...

At 216 PM EDT... the public reported a funnel cloud in Thonotosassa
area... near U.S. 301 and Ohio av. Doppler radar showed the storm
moving northeast at 10 mph.

This includes Interstate 75 between exits 260 and 266.

Funnel clouds can become brief... small... but dangerous tornadoes.
Move indoors immediately... and stay away from windows.


Lat... Lon 2825 8225 2807 8210 2795 8234 2809 8246
time... Mot... loc 1816z 243deg 8kt 2807 8235
Quoting Neapolitan:
Say what? ;-)

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2012, DB, O, 2012071718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912012
AL, 91, 2012071718, , BEST, 0, 398N, 552W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ORLY?
Will likely not amount to anything.
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued an

* Urban Flood Advisory for minor flooding of poor drainage areas
in...
northeastern Broward County in Southeast Florida...
this includes the city of Deerfield Beach...
southeastern Palm Beach County in Southeast Florida...
this includes the cities of... Delray Beach... Boynton Beach... Boca
Raton...

* until 415 PM EDT

* at 220 PM EDT an area of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue to spread east across northern Broward and southern Palm
Beach counties this afternoon. The combination of the heavy
rainfall from yesterday evening and today... plus another 1 to 2
inches has already led to localized flooding... especially in the
low lying and flood prone areas.

Heavy rainfall will cause ponding of water in urban areas, highways,
streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage areas and low
lying spots. Runoff will also cause elevated waters levels in canals
and ditches.

Lat... Lon 2628 8009 2628 8028 2653 8020 2659 8004


Rivera
Just as I suspected.

Quoting Neapolitan:
Say what? ;-)

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2012, DB, O, 2012071718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912012
AL, 91, 2012071718, , BEST, 0, 398N, 552W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ORLY?


The gods smile upon us after seeing our plight and give us something to watch as a reward for our patience!
Quoting spathy:


I know this sounds paranoid but also remember to not shower or wash your hands during a Fl thunderstorm.
Dont worry about using the restroom. Thats a broken stream and wont conduct.
spathy.........I just made a meatloaf here in Palm Beach county......My hands are a mess and it is storming...Any suggestions?
91L is unlikely to develop. It is moving into cooler sea surface temperatures less than 26C.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Depends on the type of solar filter you want. Mylar ones are cheap but are low quality. Glass ones are much better but cost a little more (around $150).

Solar narrow-band H-alpha filters are very expensive, but also show the highest quality view of the surface of the sun (with all it's various convective features). A regular solar filter will allow you to see limb prominences and sunspots, but an H-alpha will show you a whole loty more. To give you an idea of cost, the 40mm Coranoda solar telescope runs around $500-$600, and almost all of that cost goes into the front lens filter. And that's a single purpose scope (solar only).

Also, as a safety note, never never never NEVER get a through-the-eye-piece solar filter. Always get an end-cap filter (and if you opt for mylar, regularly check for holes). Depending on the aperature of your scope, a through the eyepiece filter ranges from being a mere blinding hazard to potentially shredding your eyeball with shards of searing hot glass.


Thanks for the info!! I have a 8" Dobsonian. I did see a video on how a eyepiece solar filter cracked and could cause you to have a very bad day!
Wait a second, 91L? I know we haven't even gotten to 98L yet before Debby.
Quoting wxchaser97:
I don't think so look at atlanticLink


did we miss a few, howd we get back to 91?

97 was that wave, there may have been a 98 and i dont remember anything else
Quoting spathy:


True.
All it takes is an arc to bypass any non conductive or limited conductive substance.
well, are there any reports of porcelain toilet deaths during a lightning storm? semantically, an arc bypassing a non-conductive material does not constitute the material being classified as conductive. semantics aside, neither myself nor anyone else would want to put safety to the test during a lightning storm.. avoiding the bathroom is sound advice!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wait a second, 91L? I know we haven't even gotten to 98L yet before Debby.


A big error there.
Quoting spathy:


I know this sounds paranoid but also remember to not shower or wash your hands during a Fl thunderstorm.
Dont worry about using the restroom. Thats a broken stream and wont conduct.
Ever heard of an arc? How about ball lightning?

Don't go anywhere near the plumbing in a lightning storm. I had a friend who heard lightning hit the house, and a ball of lightning came out of the faucet in the kitchen sink, and rolled across the living room carpet and into the television, frying the TV. If not for the burn marks on the carpeting showing the path this ball took, I wouldn't have believed it.

The story gets even better, but there's not time to tell it. Suffice to say that the place this occurred had many strange lightning strikes, and we guessed there must be some mineral under the ground that was attracting it, because it wasn't the highest spot around.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wait a second, 91L? I know we haven't even gotten to 98L yet before Debby.
True. Nor 99. Hence me "Say what?" comment. ..
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


did we miss a few, howd we get back to 91?

97 was that wave, there may have been a 98 and i dont remember anything else
I honestly dont know but it says 91l and how are you tday?
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Ever heard of an arc? How about ball lightning?

Don't go anywhere near the plumbing in a lightning storm. I had a friend who saw lightning hit the house, and a ball of lightning came out of the faucet in the kitchen sink, and rolled across the living room carpet and into the television, frying the TV. If not for the burn marks on the carpeting showing the path this ball took, I wouldn't have believed it.

The story gets even better, but there's not time to tell it. Suffice to say that the place this occurred had many strange lightning strikes, and we guess there must be some mineral under the ground that was attracting it, because it was by far the highest spot close by.
Oracle......Does that include holding a Bud Light in Palm Beach county?


??? I've seen way better things to look at besides this...
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Ever heard of an arc? How about ball lightning?

Don't go anywhere near the plumbing in a lightning storm. I had a friend who saw lightning hit the house, and a ball of lightning came out of the faucet in the kitchen sink, and rolled across the living room carpet and into the television, frying the TV. If not for the burn marks on the carpeting showing the path this ball took, I wouldn't have believed it.

The story gets even better, but there's not time to tell it. Suffice to say that the place this occurred had many strange lightning strikes, and we guessed there must be some mineral under the ground that was attracting it, because it wasn't the highest spot around.


Lets hear it
Quoting WxGeekVA:


??? I've seen way better things to look at besides this...
Worst thing I have ever looked at was KC and the Sunshine Band
Quoting Minnemike:
well, are there any reports of porcelain toilet deaths during a lightning storm? semantically, an arc bypassing a non-conductive material does not constitute the material being classified as conductive. semantics aside, neither myself nor anyone else would want to put safety to the test during a lightning storm.. avoiding the bathroom is sound advice!


Yup!

Dont be paranoid,just be informed of possible hazards.
Water,Wires,Metal,proximity to windows etc...
Interesting but experts thought this was a tornado that touched down in oregon but it was really a fire whirl..

From NWS San Diego


TROPICAL STORM FABIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH ABOUT 600
MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE STORM WILL
WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND MOISTURE FROM
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE
OF THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER L.A....VENTURA AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES...THERE WILL STILL BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT MAKES
IT OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SAN DIEGO...ORANGE...RIVERSIDE AND
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE DEEP ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS SHOWING A
MOIST LAYER FROM 700 TO 300 MB AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF UP
TO 1.5 INCHES. ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS INDICATED...SO IT APPEARS
THAT THERE WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS EVENT. HOWEVER...A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

MOST OF THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD EXIT THE
REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
COULD BRING SOME TOWERING CUMULUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL START TO SLOWLY EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING TREND FOR
INLAND AREAS AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.



AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS INTO OUR AREA...THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN FROM A MAINLY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO A SOUTHEAST TO EAST
DIRECTION...AND THUS BRINGING MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN FROM MEXICO.
MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE SATURDAY...LIKELY BRINGING SOME
TOWERING CUMULUS TO THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND THEN INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER EASTERLY WAVE MOVING IN
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TRIGGER NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY LOOKS DECENT DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...WITH
850-500 MB CAPES OF 100-500 J/KG AND NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES. AT THE
MOMENT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO REACH 1.6 INCHES WITH
THIS INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THUS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS COULD ALSO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE
EASTERN INLAND VALLEYS DURING THIS TIME.

The last Easterly wave failed to deliver more than just wetting the street shower,let's hope this one has more punch! It's been bone dry since April at my location.
What? 91L? Shouldn't it be 98L?

It doesn't look very Invest-worthy, either...





I have no idea why they would declare this... Something is fishy here...
I think spathy is Ozzie in disguise............Black Sabbath
Quoting WxGeekVA:


The gods smile upon us after seeing our plight and give us something to watch as a reward for our patience!


it aint much to give
Quoting Neapolitan:
True. Nor 99. Hence me "Say what?" comment. ..


maybe knabb punched a computer
Quoting wxchaser97:
I honestly dont know but it says 91l and how are you tday?


alright, not as hot as detroit down here and my sore throat is better.
Also,there was anything mentioned in TWO so something smells fishy here.
Quoting WxGeekVA:





I have no idea why they would declare this... Something is fishy here...
Maybe it can surprise us but I really doubt it.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


alright, not as hot as detroit down here and my sore throat is better.
its 101f now, good your feeling better, and why is this an invest?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Also,there was anything mentioned in TWO so something smells fishy here.
Speaking of fishy..Caught 20 Lane, Mangrove, Yellowtail...and one nice Strawberry Grouper over the weekend in Islamorada
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


it aint much to give
Agree with you.
Very odd that 91L is declared.
683. yoboi
Quoting Minnemike:
well, are there any reports of porcelain toilet deaths during a lightning storm? semantically, an arc bypassing a non-conductive material does not constitute the material being classified as conductive. semantics aside, neither myself nor anyone else would want to put safety to the test during a lightning storm.. avoiding the bathroom is sound advice!



porcelain may contain alumina a compound of aluminum and oxygen. i think aluminum conducts electricity...so by saying porcelain is not classified as a conducter of electricity is a false statement....depends on the amount of alumina compounds in that porcelain product....
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Cool pic. that appeared today on spaceweather.

Ladies and Gentlemen, This.Is.A.Test.

91L
FSU Phase analysis says "91L's" not even going to come anywhere close to subtropical anyway...







Fabio down to 40.

EP, 06, 2012071718, , BEST, 0, 226N, 1206W, 35, 1004, TS
Quoting RitaEvac:
Ladies and Gentlemen, This.Is.A.Test.

91L


so why is it on the navy site over a swirl and between 90 and 99?
Intern screwed up
I'm wondering if this is a test. If it was, then I wonder why they didn't name it like 88L or something like that.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Ladies and Gentlemen, This.Is.A.Test.

91L
Never was to good at tests........but I did win my 1st grade speeling bee............I spelled the word "catagory" correctly.. Did I get it right this time?
Quoting aerojad:
Was wondering if you guys could help me out with something. Rivers are obviously falling because of the drought over most of the country but I can't seem to find any information on what an 'average' river level is, and what is considered to be too low.

I can find tons of stuff like this from the AHPS: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo= dvn&gage=rcki2

Tells me the current and forecast stages, as well as the definitions of various flood stages, but there's no line for normal, or what's too low for shipping.

I've found a very few gauges along the Mississippi where they list the low water impacts, but the vast majority doesn't.

Does anyone know where I can find average river levels?


Your best bet will be to find the site you want on the USGS page (as long as it is a gauge operated by the USGS). Typically they will also post information about the current levels compared to climatology.

It looks like you are looking at a gauge on the Mississippi River. Many times they are maintained by the US Army Corps of Engineers, although sometimes in collaboration with the USGS. I couldn't seem to find a USGS page for the Miss. at Rock Island gauge, but did find a gauge just upstream at Clinton:
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=0542050 0

This overview map may also be helpful:
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt
sorry that this is kinda off topic

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 171758Z - 172000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AREAS OF CNTRL AND NRN WI ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT LEAST
ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEST-TO-EAST FRONTAL ZONE
STALLED ACROSS SCNTRL WI WITH VERY WARM AND INCREASING UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITHIN A STRONGLY CAPPED AIRMASS COINCIDENT
WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. A FEW SCATTERED TSTMS CONTINUE WELL NORTH
OF THE SURFACE FRONT...ACROSS NRN WI...AS PART OF A WEAK MCV THAT
WAS GENERATED FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. ON THE LARGE SCALE...LIFT ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL
LIKELY BE AIDED BY SLOPED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A MODESTLY STRONG MID/UPPER JET SITUATED ACROSS SRN LAKE
SUPERIOR. EVEN WITH THIS FAVORABLE PATTERN OF BACKGROUND
ASCENT...PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL EML PLUME AND RESULTANT CAPPING WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO COMPLETELY ELIMINATE TO ALLOW WIDESPREAD
SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT-TERM.

HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF STRONG HEATING
IN THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND BACKGROUND
ASCENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH SOME HAIL POTENTIAL. IF SURFACE-BASED
DISCRETE STORMS CAN TAKE FORM NEAR THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY INTERACT
WITH LAKE/BAY BREEZES...ENHANCED SR SHEAR COULD BRIEFLY BOOST
TORNADO POTENTIAL. ANY CONVECTION ABLE TO FORM OVER THE WARM SECTOR
COULD ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

IF GREATER CERTAINTY REGARDING INITIATION...STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IS FORTHCOMING THIS AFTERNOON...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
ACROSS THE REGION.
There's a button at the NHC that says "Send to whole world?" and looks like it got pushed
Quoting RitaEvac:
There's a button at the NHC that says "Send to whole world?" and looks like it got pushed
Rita.......I saw that button years I go...... I never got the nerve to push it.....Such a wimp I am
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I think spathy is Ozzie in disguise............Black Sabbath


Ozzy?
As in Osborne?
Ewwww!
Bats creep me out!

Or as in a blogger oz?
I am so bad with names.
There was/is a blogger that has the name oz.
For the life of me I cant remember, Was it cyclone oz or something?
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Never was to good at tests........but I did win my 1st grade speeling bee............I spelled the word "catagory" correctly.. Did I get it right this time?
Nope, category, i win.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Rita.......I saw that button years I go...... I never got the nerve to push it.....Such a wimp I am


Good, cuz it's automatic termination if accidentally pressed
I bet the NHC faculty are just really bored.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Nope, category, i win.
Dammit Jim
The NHC just likes to mess with our minds.

Good afternoon everyone.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Good, cuz it's automatic termination if accidentally pressed


that would be cool if it actually existed :)
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I think spathy is Ozzie in disguise............Black Sabbath

ACK!!!
I dont think I have ever been compared to someone else (here on the blog)

Trust me no one can be Spathy.
I am me.
Haven't looked at the local radar, but sure is raining hard here in Palm Beach county
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Haven't looked at the local radar, but sure is raining hard here in Palm Beach county
..alot of lightning down there also
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


that would be cool if it actually existed :)


I'm sure it does. In the old days when I volunteered at NWS you had to actually record yourself for the NOAA radio forecasts. There was a button to push to send it out to the world (the public) once you decided it was good to go
Pathetic.

That's all I have to say.

(They didn't event get the numbering right)

Quoting RitaEvac:


I'm sure it does. In the old days when I worked at NWS you had to actually record yourself for the NOAA radio forecasts. There was button to push to send it out the world (the public) once you decided it was good to go
...........Do you happen to remember the word "FIBI"?
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Pathetic.

That's all I have to say.

(They didn't event get the numbering right)



And didn't get a mention at TWO.
............say stormtracker, looks like all the storms around me are moving inland,they are warning now of excessive lightning and possible funnel clouds...be careful out there
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And didn't get a mention at TWO.


never had even a 0%
Arggggg
Please remind me not to liken one blogger to another.
I hate to be so self absorbed but thats creepy.
Oh wait!
Please Say Later Cause Vacationing!

Is that you farking with my head?
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
251 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR...THE CYPRESS CREEK
AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN FELL OVER THE CYPRESS CREEK THIS AFTERNOON
AND BROUGHT THE WATER LEVELS UP TO FLOOD STAGE. MINOR FLOODING IS
EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING THE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS...

STAY TUNED TO DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

&&

FLC101-180400-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FL.W.0020.120717T1902Z-120718T0400Z/
/WRGF1.1.ER.120717T1902Z.120717T2000Z.120717T2200 Z.NO/
251 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA FL HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS.
* FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
* AT 2 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS...7.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET.
* CYPRESS CREEK WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 8.1 FEET BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...FLOODING BEGINS AT THE RECREATION AREA ON
STATE ROAD 54.

$$
Sunspot 1520 is saying goodbye this afternoon... It produced a long duration M 1.8 flare and a massive CME which thankfully appears to be mostly aimed away from Earth... Proton levels jumped though and a minor radiation storm is occurring...



You can see the video of the blast here.

This is the same region that produced the X class flare and CME which caused a brilliant northern lights display farther south than usual.
Quoting spathy:
Arggggg
Please remind me not to liken one blogger to another.
I hate to be so self absorbed but thats creepy.
Oh wait!
Please Say Later Cause Vacationing!

Is that you farking with my head?
spathy.Had no idea what you just said, BUT , as I say to my children...You are absolutely correct
alot of warnings out there folks,be aware of the weather around you, way too many warnings to post them all here..............................SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC065-123-172000-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0279.120717T1900Z-120717T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
WESTERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 257 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF PERRY TO
PERRY...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
FANLEW...HELLS HALF ACRE...ECONFINA...SCANLON...ADAMS BEACH AND
DEKLE BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU
CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
spathy.Had no idea what you just said, BUT , as I say to my children...You are absolutely correct


Ok I am LMAO.
But you gotta email me and tell me WTHeck you are thinking.
I dont think you are PSLCV but I am still curious as to your train of thought or what has to be a funny point that I am obviously missing.
I hate missing the punchline.
Here's my new blog: POSSIBLE TROUBLE Link
I had to turn the lamp on over my computer...... It is 3:18 pm. and I cannot see without light... Must be something going on outside.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Pathetic.

That's all I have to say.

(They didn't event get the numbering right)



I'm lost. Where is this?
Quoting LargoFl:
...looks like Georgia is getting the storms also
Quoting islandgirls:


I'm lost. Where is this?


Middle of the Atlantic.

This really isn't even worth invest designation. It's just a cold-core low that doesn't have a chance to transition.

Might just be a test...who knows.
Quoting guygee:


Look for the USGS and the Army Corps of Engineers online sites, they have historical data on river levels. The concept of "normal" really only applies for man-made or dredged channels, or for natural rivers on the scale of a couple of decades. A natural river will silt over in places, islands will form, and the course of the river will change over time. If the river flow is constrained by levees, then the "normal" levels tend to rise over time.


The USGS page indicates the percentiles as a function of discharge, not stage. As such, changes in river course and depth due to sedimentation and flood mitigation efforts should be accounted for in changes to the site's rating curve. It is stage that needs to be used with a grain of salt when comparing events from more than a few decades prior.
Things dont look promising for Tropical Developments in the North Atlantic basin for the rest of July.

Lot's of storms all around Florida.......Rumbling here in Palm Beach county... This is more important than the finals of the "Next Food Network Star" Or kinda close
Now this one is a test:

BEGIN
HPC_ATCF
invest_al822012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207171925
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
TEST, AL, L, , , , , 82, 2012, TD, O, 2012071718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL822012
AL, 82, 2012071700, , BEST, 0, 383N, 560W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 82, 2012071706, , BEST, 0, 387N, 557W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 82, 2012071712, , BEST, 0, 392N, 554W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 82, 2012071718, , BEST, 0, 398N, 552W, 25, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEST, D,
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Lot's of storms all around Florida.......Rumbling here in Palm Beach county... This is more important than the finals of the "Next Food Network Star" Or kinda close
..yes alot of storms today
Quoting Neapolitan:
Now this one is a test:

BEGIN
HPC_ATCF
invest_al822012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207171925
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
TEST, AL, L, , , , , 82, 2012, TD, O, 2012071718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL822012
AL, 82, 2012071700, , BEST, 0, 383N, 560W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 82, 2012071706, , BEST, 0, 387N, 557W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 82, 2012071712, , BEST, 0, 392N, 554W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 82, 2012071718, , BEST, 0, 398N, 552W, 25, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEST, D,
You passed
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NE FLORIDA CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE ERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N83W TO 26N86W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N E OF 87W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 170 NM OFF THE WRN GULF COAST
FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO MATAGORDA BAY TEXAS. THE ACTIVITY IN THIS
REGION IS ASSOCIATED TO A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS N-CENTRAL TEXAS TO NE MEXICO. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST THE RAIN ACTIVITY OVER THE ERN GULF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE COASTAL WATERS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TRAVELING WEST ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANEL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING
TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN BASIN W OF 83W TO INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
N OF 18N. TO THE E OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS S OF CUBA AND W OF JAMAICA WITH VERY
LIMITED CONVECTION DUE TO SAHARAN DUST ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE NOTED ON METEOSAT-9. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER ASSOCIATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI
CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND A DRY UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH E OF 72W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS GUSTING TO
NEAR GALE FORCE CRITERIA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR COLOMBIA.
THE FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY
SAHARAN DUST ALOFT NOTED ON METEOSAT-9.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER THE FAR NE FLORIDA
PENINSULA CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 75W INCLUDING THE NW BAHAMAS. AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE OVER THE ISLAND OF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
A NEARLY STATIONARY 1021 MB HIGH AROUND 26N66W...EXPECTED TO
START DRIFTING N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENSION OF A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ENTERS OUR REGION
FROM 32N52W TO 27N54W SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATED OVER THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS. OTHERWISE...A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION
AREA ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL E OF THE IBERIAN
PENINSULA NEAR 41N19W. THE WEATHER IN THIS REGION IS FURTHER
ENHANCED BY A LAYER SAHARAN DUST ALOFT NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 E OF
50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
Quoting jeffs713:

Actually, that farmland is likely incredibly rich now, due to the silt and new soil dropped in by the flood. Remember, most of the Mississippi River valley is so fertile because of the periodic flooding.


The overwhelming majority of farmland along the Mississippi River did not flood. A system of levees in place that is maintained by local entities and overseen by the US Army Corps of Engineers greatly reduces the chance of this happening. It would take numerous levee breaches for large areas of farmland along the river to flood, and this did not occur last year.

Although the farmland derived much of its fertile quality from periodic flooding, this is not so much the case anymore. Farmer's typically use fertilizer and crop rotation strategies to sustain arable land.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Things dont look promising for Tropical Developments in the North Atlantic basin for the rest of July.


Sorry to say this, but...

GOOD !

:):))
Seems to be a setup where storms will come from LA and into E and SE TX with the clock wise rotation of the ridge. We will be on the southern edge of this ridge and storms ride the ring of fire

Quoting Minnemike:
that is correct, porcelain is non-conductive.

A mile of air would seem to be nonconductive but it does not matter.
Quoting pottery:

Sorry to say this, but...

GOOD !

:):))
Please don't be sorry..... Palm Beach county here....
There are now 156 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice
They could have given this invest status...it looks better than that thing. :S

Quoting ncstorm:
Interesting but experts thought this was a tornado that touched down in oregon but it was really a fire whirl..


Looks like a painting. Not saying it is. Just looks like it.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


The overwhelming majority of farmland along the Mississippi River did not flood. A system of levees in place that is maintained by local entities and overseen by the US Army Corps of Engineers greatly reduces the chance of this happening. It would take numerous levee breaches for large areas of farmland along the river to flood, and this did not occur last year.

Although the farmland derived much of its fertile quality from periodic flooding, this is not so much the case anymore. Farmer's typically use fertilizer and crop rotation strategies to sustain arable land.


It is an interesting thought though.
The larger of the last floods was when/Early 90s?
Is that earlier flooded land being used again for farming?
Was it 92?
You know the flood I am referring to,the year that farmhouses were filmed floating downstream.
Someone been hangin with Duck Dynasty family
....................................going to be some flooding issues around florida this evening if this keeps up
Patrap somewhere Keeper is kicking himself for not posting that first today.
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 156 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice


The Quickening
Quoting bappit:

Looks like a painting. Not saying it is. Just looks like it.


I guess it was hard to get a good picture with the heat coming from it but yeah it does look like a painting..
The sky has darkened and there is thunder here in Key West as well. I went to SeFlGamma blog site and she has screen showing the whole state of Florida with the low circulating drawing this mess across the keys, up over the mainland. Sure does look threatening.
Quoting kwgirl:
The sky has darkened and there is thunder here in Key West as well. I went to SeFlGamma blog site and she has screen showing the whole state of Florida with the low circulating drawing this mess across the keys, up over the mainland. Sure does look threatening.
Just got back from Islamorada and Key Largo fishing trip......... Finally I timed it right
NHC stop screwing with us..I seriously think they read this blog.They know we want to track a storm so they declare something that will not amount into anything.It may affect shipping lanes.But hey Chris became a hurricane really far north early in the season.
Quoting spathy:


It is an interesting thought though.
The larger of the last floods was when/Early 90s?
Is that earlier flooded land being used again for farming?
Was it 92?
You know the flood I am referring to,the year that farmhouses were filmed floating downstream.


Although that description could probably apply to numerous floods, you are probably referring to the flooding from summer 1993. That is the current flood of record for many locations on the Upper Mississippi River (upstream of Cairo, IL and the confluence with the Ohio). There were more levee issues in 1993 than today. I'm not sure what relative impacts to agriculture there were between flooded/non-flooded pieces of farmland.
Quoting washingtonian115:
NHC stop screwing with us..I seriously think they read this blog.They know we want to track a storm so they declare something that will not amount into anything.It may affect shipping lanes.But hey Chris became a hurricane really far north early in the season.
Just my opinion.. Do you really think they are screwinging with us??? Really?
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Just my opinion.. Do you really think they are screwinging with us??? Really?
I do at least think a few of the workers read the blog..and don't be a smart alec..I see what your doing and I fell for the bait.Damn.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I do at least think a few of the workers read the blog..and don't be a smart alec..I see what your doing and I fell for the bait.Damn.
I usually quote Bones McCoy at this point...Dammit Jimm
Quoting ScottLincoln:


The overwhelming majority of farmland along the Mississippi River did not flood. A system of levees in place that is maintained by local entities and overseen by the US Army Corps of Engineers greatly reduces the chance of this happening. It would take numerous levee breaches for large areas of farmland along the river to flood, and this did not occur last year.

Although the farmland derived much of its fertile quality from periodic flooding, this is not so much the case anymore. Farmer's typically use fertilizer and crop rotation strategies to sustain arable land.

I know. I was referring to the area that was intentionally flooded south of St. Louis.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Natural causes killed penguins along Brazilian coast, scientists say

745 penguins wash ashore

Earlier this year it was 3000 dead dolphins found along the Chile Coast. Now Penguins? D:
Quoting cyclonekid:
Fabio down to 40.

EP, 06, 2012071718, , BEST, 0, 226N, 1206W, 35, 1004, TS


I would like to see a Tropical Storm hit Southern California in my lifetime. Could happen in a strong El Nino year. I think the highest ocean water temps I've see off Southern California have been mid 70's.
Hey Keeper, Syria on cusp of using chemical weapons and huge naval build up off Iranian coast by the US. Little off topic but the quickening of events now only grows faster and faster. Special forces from numerous Western countries in Syria helping Rebels. They look the part, have the credentials, and if captured or killed would never be discovered as Westerners. Damascus battles increasing daily. May be close to the finish there now. Assad gets cornered he may unleash chemical weapons on his populace. Hussein and the Kurds in Iraq ring a bell? New show in the states based on the aftermath of an electromagnetic pulse. Foreshadowing what Iran or North Korea could do if they sneak a nuke in and launched it over Kansas. For those who don't know, the US and Russians agreed to not detonate nukes at altitude because of electromagnetic pulses discovered during testing near Hawaii in the sixties which fried electronics. A successful electromagnetic pulse, at the right altitude, would fry every electrical item in America. We would instantly go back to the 1800's in almost every fashion. Only diesel vehicles and equipment would still run. Russia and China would never do it to us because we'd just do the same to them. Iran and North Korea especially have little to lose by it. If a rouge element did it, we'd have a hard time placing the blame.
The "I" button sure comes in handy.Hey Jeff ncstorm Rita and Articuno.
Cozy in Detroit this afternoon:

hot
Quoting washingtonian115:
The "I" button sure comes in handy.Hey Jeff ncstorm Rita and Articuno.

Hi wash
How are u
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Although that description could probably apply to numerous floods, you are probably referring to the flooding from summer 1993. That is the current flood of record for many locations on the Upper Mississippi River (upstream of Cairo, IL and the confluence with the Ohio). There were more levee issues in 1993 than today. I'm not sure what relative impacts to agriculture there were between flooded/non-flooded pieces of farmland.


That was probably the year.

Its sad that the web is so cluttered that info like this is nearly impossible to find.

The best way might be someone from the affected area that can tell us the rest of the story.
Quoting Articuno:

Hi wash
How are u
Doing great on this hot afternoon.I'm so happy that this heat wave won't be as long as the other one.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Doing great on this hot afternoon.I'm so happy that this heat wave won't be as long as the other one.


And hopefully it wont end in the same way!!!!
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Just got back from Islamorada and Key Largo fishing trip......... Finally I timed it right


Hey PalmBeachWeather,
Glad you made it safe and sound and all..
But the most important question is "Did you catch some fish?"And what kind are we having for supper...LOL.. :)
Quoting spathy:


And hopefully it wont end in the same way!!!!
You mean the thunderstorms?.Well actually the thunderstorms that ended our heat wave were not as server as the ones during the heat wave.We would have big thunderstorms and the next day it would warm right back up to it's upper 90's to 100.
Anyone think 91L will become Ernesto because I really doubt I give it a 10% chance and that is very generous of me.
Quoting allancalderini:
Anyone think 91L will become Ernesto because I really doubt I give it a 10% chance and that is very generous of me.


I agree. It is unlikely to form.
Quoting allancalderini:
Anyone think 91L will become Ernesto because I really doubt I give it a 10% chance and that is very generous of me.


I don't even give it a 1%...

Because when I look at it and think about why it was tagged I go:

Quoting washingtonian115:
You mean the thunderstorms?.Well actually the thunderstorms that ended our heat wave were not as server as the ones during the heat wave.We would have big thunderstorms and the next day it would warm right back up to it's upper 90's to 100.


Yup thats correct. I forgot youall still had the heat after the Derecho. And with no AC to boot.
But you get my drift :O)
Someone please keep that cat out of the special brownies.
Quoting Articuno:

This!? An Invest?



._.
Jose look better than that thing.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Someone please keep that cat out of the special brownies.

Lol!!
786. ARiot
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 156 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice


"Winter is coming"

Do you guys talk about Nor'Easters when the tropics shut down? Or is it random weather stuff like now?

(curious)

When I lived up east, being from the south, I always considered big winter storms the same as tropical systems and heavy gulf moisture back home. Just colder and a little more slick :-)
Quoting allancalderini:
Jose look better than that thing.

Exactly!
Last year it was the cat videos, this year its the Memes..
Jose:



91L

Giant wind tunnel destroys buildings to study safety in South Carolina


The cement block wall of a strip mall restaurant came tumbling down as the business was blasted with 135 mph winds.

The epic event unfolded under controlled conditions inside the Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety's giant wind tunnel in rural Chester County, S.C. IBHS, a non-profit safety research organization funded by the insurance industry, conducts the building industry's equivalent of car crash tests inside the giant chamber, which can simulate hurricanes, hail storms, wildfires and other natural disasters.

Today's test inflicted hurricane force winds on two strip mall-style structures after air cannons fired debris through the windows.

The buildings were made of identical materials with mirror image floor plans.

One, however, was reinforced with the latest enhancements recommended by insurers.

"It's really important when you're talking about defending against windstorms that the building is stronger by being completely integrated," said Julie Rochman, IBHS' executive director. "The roof is tied to the walls. The different pieces of the roof are tied to each other and the walls are reinforced so that if wind or air does get in, and the building is pressurized, it doesn't come apart."

The enhanced construction techniques cost 5 percent more, on average, than standard building practices, according to Carl Hedde of Munich Reinsurance America, Inc.

Hedde, who also serves as chairman of IBHS' board, said, "With a lot of the tests that we're doing here, the major take home is the difference -- the small difference in cost to be able to build a much stronger building that protects the occupants, protects the business and ultimately protects the property."
Quoting LargoFl:
....................................going to be some flooding issues around florida this evening if this keeps up
My neighborhood is experiencing unprecedented flooding as over 7" has fallen since Sunday afternoon.

The water level started to drop last night, but reversed as torrential downpours came through at 3am, 9am, and 2pm today.

Looks like there is more on my way too.
epic temperature gradient in Michigan right now. The range is 68 to 102, that is probably some sort of record.
Quoting ARiot:


"Winter is coming"

Do you guys talk about Nor'Easters when the tropics shut down? Or is it random weather stuff like now?

(curious)

When I lived up east, being from the south, I always considered big winter storms the same as tropical systems and heavy gulf moisture back home. Just colder and a little more slick :-)

Yeah we talk some about noreasters and other weather events.... and occasionaly politics pops its head up but the political talk doesnt last long
Big rain today
Quoting RitaEvac:


Actually I was doing this when Debby's track did a 180 in the gulf



No, that would be this one:

Just saw this on Twitter... wow.

@breakingweather

Carolina Beach Ocean Rescue reported 32 rescues today due to rip currents in New Hanover, NC.
Quoting oddspeed:
epic temperature gradient in Michigan right now. The range is 68 to 102, that is probably some sort of record.
I'm in the 102F part, it is crazy hot outside.
Daniel the prophet told of a "world-wide web" that would come before the end. Not trying to push religion, just saying this was a pretty good call on his part. Computers make us far less intellectual and far more selfish and less able to communicate. Too bad the universal message is, computers make us more important and smarter. US test scores tells us which one is accurate. Fifty years ago we still had families in America too, that didn't hurt any.
804. MTWX
Earth's magnetic field is still reverberating from the CME strike of July 14th. This morning, July 17th, at 1:00 am CDT, Shawn Malone witnessed one of the aftershocks over Lake Superior:

Lesson #1: All you need to know about this forum to understand some of the people here.

This forum for the past three weeks:

"I'm bored. We need an invest."
"This place is slow. We need an invest."
"We need an invest. What is the NHC waiting for?"
"When are we going to get an invest? We need an invest."
"I would really love to track a single little invest, even one that has no chance. We need an invest ASAP."
"I can't stand summer! We need an invest!"
"Things need to pick up before El Nino arrives. We need an invest now!"
"We really need an invest."
"We need an invest."
"We need an invest."
"We need an invest..."
"What's wrong with the folks at the NHC??!?"

This forum since 91L was declared a few hours ago:

"The NHC numbered that?!"
"Wait--that's an invest?"
"Is this a joke? Why would the NHC call that an invest?"
"That invest has no chance. Why did the NHC give it a number?"
"What's wrong with the folks at the NHC??!?"

;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Lesson #1: All you need to know about this forum to understand some of the people here.

This forum for the past three weeks:

"I'm bored. We need an invest."
"This place is slow. We need an invest."
"We need an invest. What is the NHC waiting for?"
"When are we going to get an invest? We need an invest."
"I would really love to track a single little invest, even one that has no chance. We need an invest ASAP."
"I can't stand summer! We need an invest!"
"Things need to pick up before El Nino arrives. We need an invest now!"
"We really need an invest."
"We need an invest."
"We need an invest."
"We need an invest..."
"What's wrong with the folks at the NHC??!?"

This forum since 91L was declared a few hours ago:

"The NHC numbered that?!"
"Wait--that's an invest?"
"Is this a joke? Why would the NHC call that an invest?"
"That invest has no chance. Why did the NHC give it a number?"
"What's wrong with the folks at the NHC??!?"

;-)


we wanted a proper invest not a skip a few numbers wimpy swirl
Quoting Neapolitan:
Lesson #1: All you need to know about this forum to understand some of the people here.

This forum for the past three weeks:

"I'm bored. We need an invest."
"This place is slow. We need an invest."
"We need an invest. What is the NHC waiting for?"
"When are we going to get an invest? We need an invest."
"I would really love to track a single little invest, even one that has no chance. We need an invest ASAP."
"I can't stand summer! We need an invest!"
"Things need to pick up before El Nino arrives. We need an invest now!"
"We really need an invest."
"We need an invest."
"We need an invest."
"We need an invest..."
"What's wrong with the folks at the NHC??!?"

This forum since 91L was declared a few hours ago:

"The NHC numbered that?!"
"Wait--that's an invest?"
"Is this a joke? Why would the NHC call that an invest?"
"That invest has no chance. Why did the NHC give it a number?"
"What's wrong with the folks at the NHC??!?"

;-)


lool I'm bored with the dusttttttttttttttt WHERE IS THE RAIN!!! :)
Quoting wxchaser97:
I'm in the 102F part, it is crazy hot outside.

we had our fair share of 100+ crazy heat last month and then July turns into one of the coolest and wettest summer months since probably 1976.... looks like you guys will be getting some relief from the heat soon with that cold front coming in.
30% risk on Day 2... Not bad.

762) Bird's Point Levee if you want info on the breached area - Lots of damage in the main channel near breach, not so sure farther away. '93 was year of the flood on Missouri and Upper Mississippi that overflowed many of the levees. Was at Riverport for the concert Mellencamp had organized for flood relief when Chesterfield Valley levee gave way and had to cancel concert so I-70 wasn't backed up around Riverport, same day the old farmhouse south of StL got washed away that is often shown on TV.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


we wanted a proper invest not a skip a few numbers wimpy swirl
Story of our WU lives, how bout I want a good invest that should be numbered unlike 91L.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Just saw this on Twitter... wow.

@breakingweather

Carolina Beach Ocean Rescue reported 32 rescues today due to rip currents in New Hanover, NC.

Moderate risk of rip currents today.
Quoting CaribBoy:


lool I'm bored with the dusttttttttttttttt WHERE IS THE RAIN!!! :)


We may get rain starting tommorow.

A FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 PM AST TUE JUL 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO REALIGN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS EMBEDDED LOW MOVES WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS AND THEN WEST OF
THE FA. A WEAK INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOULD AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE REALIGNING TUTT SHOULD BE IN A PRETTY DECENT
LOCATION TO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT PROBABLY THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK INDUCED LOW
TO MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND TUTT INDUCED TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRODUCING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOULD
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
AN ADDITIONAL EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AND IF SO...
LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO RAMP UP THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVE WEATHER
IN THE GRIDS AND PRODUCTS. AN OVERALL DRIER...MORE STABLE AND
SAHARAN DUST SHROUDED AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.


TS Khanun:



Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Pathetic.

That's all I have to say.

(They didn't event get the numbering right)



Atlantic is often pathetic lol
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FABIO ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...FABIO WEAKENING...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW EARLY
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 120.7W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012

FABIO CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...HOWEVER IT IS STILL PRODUCING
AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE SLOWING
DECREASING AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. INCREASING SHEAR...COOL WATERS...AND AN UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON...AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING WELL WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

FABIO IS STILL MOVING NORTHWARD...ALBEIT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SPEED THAN BEFORE. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 6 TO 8 KT UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE UPDATED
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE
TO...BUT A LITTLER SLOWER THAN...THE GFS MODEL.

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FABIO
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT REGION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 23.0N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 24.2N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 25.7N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0600Z 27.0N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1800Z 28.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
819. MTWX
Quoting oddspeed:

we had our fair share of 100+ crazy heat last month and then July turns into one of the coolest and wettest summer months since probably 1976.... looks like you guys will be getting some relief from the heat soon with that cold front coming in.


Another day of pop-up storms barely missing us here!!

Current Temp: 93
Heat Index: 104
Rosemary Beach FL today:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


We may get rain starting tommorow.

A FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 PM AST TUE JUL 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO REALIGN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS EMBEDDED LOW MOVES WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS AND THEN WEST OF
THE FA. A WEAK INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOULD AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE REALIGNING TUTT SHOULD BE IN A PRETTY DECENT
LOCATION TO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT PROBABLY THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK INDUCED LOW
TO MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND TUTT INDUCED TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRODUCING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOULD
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
AN ADDITIONAL EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AND IF SO...
LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO RAMP UP THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVE WEATHER
IN THE GRIDS AND PRODUCTS. AN OVERALL DRIER...MORE STABLE AND
SAHARAN DUST SHROUDED AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.




Thanks :) I hope they are right.. because all I see now it dusty skies with suffering vegetation.
Just an observation: If atmospheric water vapor increases by 10% every 1 F temperature increase, wouldn't that contribute to the formation of thunderstorms in places that historically not get that much rain?

What IMO would have the most climatic consequences about the melting polar caps is not that much sea level rise, but the huge amounts of frigid ice-melt water being introduced (especially this summer around the Arctic Circle) into the oceanic conveyor currents.
Quoting oddspeed:

we had our fair share of 100+ crazy heat last month and then July turns into one of the coolest and wettest summer months since probably 1976.... looks like you guys will be getting some relief from the heat soon with that cold front coming in.
The front is a slooow mover and relief doesn't come until tomorrow. Hopefully I get severe wx with 1" hail, and 60mph winds and have a cool next few days. I'm was just outside with a few friends and now im sweating like crazy. PWS recording 102F with a 106F heat index.
I think everyone on here is missing a point. We need to ask the Universe for an AOI not the NHC. How about we all meditate about one in the Atlantic and see if we can cause a swirl. They do say "lIfe is just a dream", so let's dream one up. Doesn't have to be big, just something to bring rain where needed. Anyway, time for me to go. Ya'll stay safe, dry and cool. Until tomorrow.
Drought? Not here. My yard finally dried enough to mow for the 1st time in nearly 2 weeks. It has rained almost daily here (Denham Springs, La.) Anyone need cantaloupes or cucumbers? I'm tired of picking them.
Here in Columbus, Wisconsin I've talked to numerous lifers over 80. They've never seen drought like this or brown lawns everywhere. Feel like I'm in St. Pete in the eighties again. Headed towards the second or third greatest crop loss in US history I'm afraid. Going to start planting palm trees here soon. After last winters, non winter; thinking they may just make it.
Not good...





It's possible 75% of Arkansas will be in exceptional drought in two weeks time.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Moderate risk of rip currents today.
I'm just glad there haven't any report of drowning today...
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
central Harris County in southeast Texas...
southern Montgomery County in southeast Texas...

* until 545 PM CDT

* at 333 PM CDT... Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
a cluster of thunderstorms extending from Houston to The
Woodlands which is moving north around 10 mph. This cluster of
storms will likely cause Urban and Small Stream flooding in the
advisory area. Up to 2 inches of rain has fallen in the past hour.
An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is likely in this area.

* Some locations that will experience minor flooding include
Houston... Spring... The Woodlands... Cloverleaf... South Houston...
Aldine... Galena Park... Jacinto City... Oak Ridge North... Shenandoah...
Chateau Woods and Woodloch.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause ponding of water
in urban areas... highways... streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage areas and low lying spots. Do not attempt to
travel across flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only
a few inches of swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Moderate risk of rip currents today.


I remember a few weeks back there was a lady on here that was always warning of rips . I miss her concerned attitude
Will moisture from Fabio reach SoCal, or will it fizzle out before then?
No rain in my area in few days, but still 50% chance of thunderstorms everyday this week. I'm just glad I am only in D0 level (abnormally dry) of drought and not severe ones. I think everybody should be graceful whenever they get rains...
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday 17 July 2012
Condition: Cloudy
Pressure: 29.69 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 95.7°F
Dewpoint: 69.6°F
Humidity: 43 %
Wind: WNW 19 gust 29 mph
Humidex: 111
The chances of seeing Ernesto off an East Coast trough split seem to be dwindling, not that they were ever that high... Here are phase analysis maps from the 0z GFS on three lows it forms...





Quoting Housequake:
Will moisture from Fabio reach SoCal, or will it fizzle out before then?

It's unfortunately going to fizzle out.
U.S. Agriculture Department examines drought-related crop losses in Michigan

ONONDAGA, Mich. (AP) - U.S. Agriculture Department Undersecretary Michael Scuse has come to Michigan to examine the state's summer-drought related crop losses.

Scuse's tour Tuesday included a visit to the central Michigan farm of Jim Byrum, president of the Michigan Agri-Business Association.

After the stop at the farm in Onondaga, Byrum said the losses are "unprecedented and show how important it is that farmers have a strong safety net."

Scuse says it's important to pass the Farm Bill now before Congress. It has disaster relief programs that otherwise will expire Sept. 30.

The drought follows an earlier blow to Michigan's tree fruit industry.

Growers sustained devastating losses when a hard freeze followed an early thaw, wiping out much of the year's tart cherry and apple crop.
From WXYZ in Detroit
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EDT Tuesday 17 July 2012
Condition: Cloudy
Pressure: 29.69 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 4

Temperature: 95.7°F
Dewpoint: 69.6°F
Humidity: 43 %
Wind: WNW 19 gust 29 mph
Humidex: 111


Canada's heat index is different, more extreme. If it's 96 with a dew point of 70, our heat index is nowhere near 111
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The chances of seeing Ernesto off an East Coast trough split seem to be dwindling, not that they were ever that high... Here are phase analysis maps from the 0z GFS on three lows it forms...






All of them show that it'll likely be an extratropical cyclone.
Yes, I remember her. Evacuate the coast, rip currents today. She made me laugh. She was wild with her flee the coast for your safety comments. Don't believe she posted about anything else, ever. The one's who need to read about rip currents are the one's who don't. I've been in them off the Carolina coast and Florida coast. Rip currents off Lake Michigan can be so strong swimming back to the beach is literally impossible. Gotta tread and hope you get picked up. I swim at a professional level so I tested rip currents in the past when they weren't killer strong. Even moderate rips are something to deal with that can very quickly become life threatening. Ride em out, swim lateral until your out of the rip and then swim towards shore. Panic can make even very smart people forget that advise very quickly. Last time I intentionally entered dangerous currents was in Palm Coast, Florida four years ago when they had wicked ocean conditions. Even though I'm in great shape and can swim miles without fatigue the ocean really gave me a beating. After the rip took me out, the side currents were so strong that when I regained the beach I was well over a mile from where I entered. I'm not suggesting that anyone does this. I'm a rock climbing, snake catching, thrill seeker who is not afraid to put my butt on the line.
Fabio:

Drove out by my farm last night, ground that way not the gumbo around town to north and west, some early corn looked ok, but some had tassels and no ears, others minimal ears that doubt make 50 bushels/acre. The 200 bu stuff in the gumbo might do ok but won't make usual yields, lucky if get 150, some more like 120. Pastures dead now, fortunately some got pretty good 1st and decent 2nd cuts for hay, but having to feed that now. Imagine a lot of that corn will just be baled as well. Beans for most part ok, if get some rain in next week or two, but was saying that about corn 2 wks ago. My yard has only crabgrass and weeds green, little .05" shower Sat nite did nothing for it. We're east of I-55/north of I-70 in S C IL.



DETROIT (WXYZ) -
An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for all of southeastern Michigan until 11:00 p.m. tonight.


Blistering heat is on store this afternoon, with high temperatures topping 100 degrees. The high humidity level will make it feel as bad as 110. This is dangerous heat and precautions should be taken to limit exposure to the extreme temperatures. Any significant relief won't get here until Thursday.


ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
Update prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 16 July Link guys it looks like we may get lucky this year becuase the new anologues are 1977 1994 and 2006 and 1977 had anita of course but every year is different always keep guard up bc out of those three years its a 1/3 chance of one bad storm
West Pacific TS Khanun:

Quoting Neapolitan:
Lesson #1: All you need to know about this forum to understand some of the people here.

This forum for the past three weeks:

"I'm bored. We need an invest."
"This place is slow. We need an invest."
"We need an invest. What is the NHC waiting for?"
"When are we going to get an invest? We need an invest."
"I would really love to track a single little invest, even one that has no chance. We need an invest ASAP."
"I can't stand summer! We need an invest!"
"Things need to pick up before El Nino arrives. We need an invest now!"
"We really need an invest."
"We need an invest."
"We need an invest."
"We need an invest..."
"What's wrong with the folks at the NHC??!?"

This forum since 91L was declared a few hours ago:

"The NHC numbered that?!"
"Wait--that's an invest?"
"Is this a joke? Why would the NHC call that an invest?"
"That invest has no chance. Why did the NHC give it a number?"
"What's wrong with the folks at the NHC??!?"

;-)
see i told you this site would become vanilla once TWC bought it
1976 is also a new anologue
Quoting windshear1993:
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
Update prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 16 July Link guys it looks like we may get lucky this year becuase the new anologues are 1977 1994 and 2006 and 1977 had anita of course but every year is different always keep guard up bc out of those three years its a 1/3 chance of one bad storm

Not sure where you saw that?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The chances of seeing Ernesto off an East Coast trough split seem to be dwindling, not that they were ever that high... Here are phase analysis maps from the 0z GFS on three lows it forms...





I think if it is anything the system will start out subtropical and transition to tropical due to the fact of the warm sst anomolies in the North Atlantic.
805. It makes my head hurt.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not sure where you saw that?
those are my anologues but ckick on the link
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


I would like to see a Tropical Storm hit Southern California in my lifetime. Could happen in a strong El Nino year. I think the highest ocean water temps I've see off Southern California have been mid 70's.


Well, one managed to make it all the way up across Baja to hit Ca and Arizona, still as a TS sometime in the 90's...so reckon it could happen during a strong El Nino. I know not the same as a Ca landfall via ocean than via Baja. I think it'd have to be a massive storm and strong El Nino to make it all the way to Ca on the water being the waters are so cool
Quoting Tribucanes:
Daniel the prophet told of a "world-wide web" that would come before the end. Not trying to push religion, just saying this was a pretty good call on his part. Computers make us far less intellectual and far more selfish and less able to communicate. Too bad the universal message is, computers make us more important and smarter. US test scores tells us which one is accurate. Fifty years ago we still had families in America too, that didn't hurt any.


Quoting GTcooliebai:
I think if it is anything the system will start out subtropical and transition to tropical due to the fact of the warm sst anomolies in the North Atlantic.
Yep.Sst off of the east coast are approaching 90 in the gulf stream.
Remnant of Emilia located southeast of Hawaii.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Yep.Sst off of the east coast are approaching 90 in the gulf stream.
I could be wrong and the system stays attached to the front or spits out little areas of low pressure along it, and nothing develops, or stays extratropical. Looks like I will be wrong with development off the coast of Africa later this week and into next week as the SAL is still pushing off strong episodes of African Dust and that High over the Azores continues to hold firm.
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Well, one managed to make it all the way up across Baja to hit Ca and Arizona, still as a TS sometime in the 90's...so reckon it could happen during a strong El Nino. I know not the same as a Ca landfall via ocean than via Baja. I think it'd have to be a massive storm and strong El Nino to make it all the way to Ca on the water being the waters are so cool

It would need a strong El Nino and warm PDO.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I could be wrong and the system stays attached to the front or spits out little areas of low pressure along it, and nothing develops, or stays extratropical. Looks like I will be wrong with development off the coast of Africa later this week and into next week as the SAL is still pushing off strong episodes of African Dust and that High over the Azores continues to hold firm.
But if the system does detach a sub tropical transitioning to a tropical event isn't out of the question.I think we've seen so many ditachments from fronts this year that all of the regulars are almost experts.Lol.
Amazing man made weather modification shown yesterday by one of our fine bloggers got virtually no attention. Talking about what was shown over the Pacific here yesterday. Few pluses, no conversation. Government says, thanks. In Russia couple days ago cloud seeding went wrong over Moscow. They've been seeding clouds with fine cement for over twenty years now to keep fine weather over Moscow. One of the bags didn't get pulverized and fell through a residents home. The science of weather modification has come a long way in the last forty years. Covering it up from the public has come a long way in that time too. Too much IQ here for this subject to be so mute.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KHANUN (1207)
6:00 AM JST July 18 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In East China Sea

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Khanun (985 hPa) located at 28.9N 127.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===================
210 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 35.5N 125.2E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Yellow Sea
45 HRS: 40.4N 126.5E - Tropical Depression overland Korean Peninsula
Khanun:

I am officially bored.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I am officially bored.

lmaooo
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I am officially bored.

we can atleast use an invest right now or a old front tropical storm like bret and cindy last year
Politics then TA13? :) Lot more drought and fire to discuss than tropical weather. Never easy for a tropical weather and climate blog. How good at trig and calculus does one have to be to me a meteorologist? My mother used to teach both at Purdue. Needless to say she didn't pass that side of the brain along to me. History and political science more my speed.
Here comes the sea breeze:
I hope T..A..wx13 is bored on this blog for a long time ... I like the boredom ... from the FL Keys.
:>)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I am officially bored.

You young people need to have some Patience it's only July 17. Wait August Sept. will be here soon. I think some on this blog want be happy if we don't have 3 ( cat3) or above Hurricanes at one time!!!
I have to ask. Did humans releasing CO2 into the air cause the extreme droughts in the '30s and '50s?
We can't even get a near zero yellow circle.
Quoting Civicane49:


The Georgia low looks amazing. It's got good outflow on all sides. The only issue is the center is mostly over land, and there's still no sign of a surface low.

It hit 100+ in many spots in New York state today. that's very rare.
Quoting jrweatherman:
I have to ask. Did humans releasing CO2 into the air cause the extreme droughts in the '30s and '50s?


If you are really interested, here is an article for you. Humans probably did exacerbate it by plowing millions of acres of prairie grass and nothing to hold the soil and moisture.

Link
890. ackee
How much more storms do u think will develop for the rest of the seasons ?
A 10
B 7
C 6
D 5
From:About.com weather.

Answer: Ocean Temperatures in the 1930's Were Unstable
Scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center recently used a computer model and satellite data to examine climate over the past century. In the study, cooler than normal tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures and warmer than normal tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures created ideal drought conditions due to the unstable sea surface temperatures. The result was dry air and high temperatures in the Midwest from about 1931 to 1939.

The Normal Supply of Moist Air From the Gulf of Mexico Was Reduced.

Changes in sea surface temperatures create shifts in weather patterns. One way is by changing the patterns in the jet stream. In the 1930's, the jet stream was weakened causing the normally moisture rich air from the Gulf of Mexico to become drier. Low level winds further reduced the normal supply of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and reduced rainfall throughout the US Midwest.

High,
I just saw this and as I'm not a consumer or a victim or even in the relevant continent I thought you might like to chew on it! Something to do with power problems.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/48215452#.UAXKtfV_Ksc

Apparently the electric company who supply the New York area have been experiencing some difficulties with abnormal weather and heat problems. Not my cup of tea, or coffee as I'm not a subscriber, being only reliant on the solar panels on the roof but if they cant keep their act together in 90+F what are they going to do if it gets Hot?

I sort of noticed that a lot of the central GOM water seems to be in the 90/F range at the moment and to say the least this must be interesting!
I wonder what the fish think of all this?
I personally think 10 more...
Quoting Neapolitan:
Lesson #1: All you need to know about this forum to understand some of the people here.

This forum for the past three weeks:

"I'm bored. We need an invest."
"This place is slow. We need an invest."
"We need an invest. What is the NHC waiting for?"
"When are we going to get an invest? We need an invest."
"I would really love to track a single little invest, even one that has no chance. We need an invest ASAP."
"I can't stand summer! We need an invest!"
"Things need to pick up before El Nino arrives. We need an invest now!"
"We really need an invest."
"We need an invest."
"We need an invest."
"We need an invest..."
"What's wrong with the folks at the NHC??!?"

This forum since 91L was declared a few hours ago:

"The NHC numbered that?!"
"Wait--that's an invest?"
"Is this a joke? Why would the NHC call that an invest?"
"That invest has no chance. Why did the NHC give it a number?"
"What's wrong with the folks at the NHC??!?"

;-)


Thanks for putting it in perspective, Nea -- It was a hard day and your post was perfect for making me laugh outloud at how silly we can all be sometimes!
As far as the naming of Invest 91L, the same thing happened in 2010 when the NHC went from 94L to 97L.

I wrote Max Mayfield at the time and this was his reply….

The NHC uses a numbering system for tropical cyclones (depressions, storms, and hurricanes) that starts with 01 and goes as high as needed. There is a separate numbering system for the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In fact, this system is used globally which makes it easy for modeling centers and others to grab the information and quickly understand what it refers to. Each tropical cyclone has a seven digit code. For example, the first official tropical depression that we had in the Atlantic back in May was designated AL012009. The AL refers to the Atlantic, the 01 means that it was the first tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, and the 2009 is the year. The next official tropical cyclone in the Atlantic will be AL022009.

For disturbances that are not yet declared a tropical depression, the NHC uses numbers in the 90s, such as AL972009. If AL972009 were to become the second depression of the year, for example, all associated files would be moved to AL022009. And then AL972009 could be use again. I suspect AL962009 was previously used and the data had not been cleaned out yet. There is no requirement to use the 90 number consecutively. They were initially used internally at the NHC, but the information is now made available to the world thanks to the internet.

Regards,
Max
Quoting ackee:
How much more storms do u think will develop for the rest of the seasons ?
A 10
B 7
C 6
D 5



E 3
Here are some of my favorite pictures of the Dust Bowl (and NO, they are not from my personal snapshots.)

There were hundreds of these that lasted for years.






GeoffreyWPB


There is no requirement to use the 90 number consecutively. They were initially used internally at the NHC, but the information is now made available to the world thanks to the internet


Thanks for this information!

CRS
Quoting Grothar:
Here are some of my favorite pictures of the Dust Bowl (and NO, they are not from my personal snapshots.)

There were hundreds of these that lasted for years.





those look scary.Imagine that coming at you at 60-70mph.Whoa.
NASA brings the Delta II out of retirement to launch three Earth observing satellites.

Spaceflight Now | Breaking News | NASA gives the Delta 2 rocket a new lease on life
....
First up is OCO 2, the replacement Orbiting Carbon Observatory built after the original spacecraft was lost in a Taurus XL launch failure in 2009. The satellite did not reach orbit when the rocket's nose cone failed to separate.

The new spacecraft is scheduled to fly aboard the Delta 2 rocket in July 2014, becoming NASA's initial environmental satellite dedicated to mapping atmospheric carbon dioxide and man's impact on Earth. The space agency had tapped Taurus for the reflight but later nixed that plan when the rocket failed a second time when the nose cone again didn't separate on the Glory satellite launch last year.

The Delta will insert the observatory into a 438-mile polar orbit to collect about 8 million measurements every 16 days to create maps showing global distribution of carbon dioxide.

Next will be SMAP, the Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite, set to launch in October 2014. Outfitted with a radiometer and synthetic aperture radar, the craft will orbit 423 miles above to Earth make global measurements of soil moisture to improve flood predictions and drought monitoring.

Then comes JPSS 1, the first civilian weather observatory in the Joint Polar Satellite System launching in November 2016. The craft will be operated by NOAA in a 512-mile-high orbit to take the planet's pulse daily for global forecasting, providing the ingredients needed for long-term weather outlooks.
....
Quoting Grothar:
Here are some of my favorite pictures of the Dust Bowl (and NO, they are not from my personal snapshots.)

There were hundreds of these that lasted for years.







great pics!!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
As far as the naming of Invest 91L, the same thing happened in 2010 when the NHC went from 94L to 97L.

I wrote Max Mayfield at the time and this was his reply….

The NHC uses a numbering system for tropical cyclones (depressions, storms, and hurricanes) that starts with 01 and goes as high as needed. There is a separate numbering system for the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In fact, this system is used globally which makes it easy for modeling centers and others to grab the information and quickly understand what it refers to. Each tropical cyclone has a seven digit code. For example, the first official tropical depression that we had in the Atlantic back in May was designated AL012009. The AL refers to the Atlantic, the 01 means that it was the first tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, and the 2009 is the year. The next official tropical cyclone in the Atlantic will be AL022009.

For disturbances that are not yet declared a tropical depression, the NHC uses numbers in the 90s, such as AL972009. If AL972009 were to become the second depression of the year, for example, all associated files would be moved to AL022009. And then AL972009 could be use again. I suspect AL962009 was previously used and the data had not been cleaned out yet. There is no requirement to use the 90 number consecutively. They were initially used internally at the NHC, but the information is now made available to the world thanks to the internet.

Regards,
Max


class has been dismissed!!
Where is 91L again and why was it tagged?.
In 2005..



ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

THE LAST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
INDCIATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF EMILY HAD RISEN TO 948
MB...AND THAT THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAD DECREASED
TO 134 KT IN THE NORTH QUADRANT. SINCE THE PLANE LEFT...THERE ARE
MIXED SIGNALS ON THE STRUCTURE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED AND THAT THERE HAS BEEN
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP COOLING NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE EYE
HAS BECOME MUCH LESS DISTINCT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 125
KT BASED ON THE LAST AIRCRAFT DATA. THE CANCUN RADAR SUGGESTS AN
OUTER EYEWALL MAY BE FORMING...ALTHOUGH THE RADAR CAN NOT YET
RELIABLY SEE THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE EYE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/17...JUST A LITTLE RIGHT OF 6 HR AGO.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...LIKELY
DUE TO BETTER MODEL ANALYSES OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ITS SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON THE
SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE NOW CALLING FOR MORE
OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS
CAUSES THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO FORECAST LESS OF A WESTWARD TURN WHILE
EMILY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH CAUSES THE MODELS TO
FORECAST LANDFALL FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS MOVED A LITTLE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE GUIDANCE SHIFT AND IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE INSTEAD OF THE NORTHERN EDGE. THIS CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK INCREASES THE THREAT TO SOUTHERN TEXAS.

GIVEN THE COOLING TOPS AND THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN...A BURST OF INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IF AN OUTER EYEWALL IS FORMING THIS BECOMES
LESS LIKELY. EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...THEN
RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOW MUCH EMILY COULD
INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF WILL DEPEND ON JUST WHAT STRUCTURE EMERGES
FROM YUCATAN...SO THERE IS A LARGER THAN NORMAL POSSIBLE ERROR ON
THE 24-48 HR INTENSITY FORECASTS. NEVERTHELESS...EMILY IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH AMERICAN MAINLAND AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 19.4N 85.2W 125 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 20.4N 87.5W 125 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 18/1800Z 21.8N 90.4W 90 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 19/0600Z 23.0N 93.2W 100 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 23.9N 95.7W 105 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 25.0N 100.5W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 21/1800Z 25.5N 105.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
120HR VT 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED


$$
NNNN
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Lucky you had home movies. That must have been terrible. I don't think most people know how many years that lasted.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
As far as the naming of Invest 91L, the same thing happened in 2010 when the NHC went from 94L to 97L.

I wrote Max Mayfield at the time and this was his reply….

The NHC uses a numbering system for tropical cyclones (depressions, storms, and hurricanes) that starts with 01 and goes as high as needed. There is a separate numbering system for the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In fact, this system is used globally which makes it easy for modeling centers and others to grab the information and quickly understand what it refers to. Each tropical cyclone has a seven digit code. For example, the first official tropical depression that we had in the Atlantic back in May was designated AL012009. The AL refers to the Atlantic, the 01 means that it was the first tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, and the 2009 is the year. The next official tropical cyclone in the Atlantic will be AL022009.

For disturbances that are not yet declared a tropical depression, the NHC uses numbers in the 90s, such as AL972009. If AL972009 were to become the second depression of the year, for example, all associated files would be moved to AL022009. And then AL972009 could be use again. I suspect AL962009 was previously used and the data had not been cleaned out yet. There is no requirement to use the 90 number consecutively. They were initially used internally at the NHC, but the information is now made available to the world thanks to the internet.

Regards,
Max


Thanks, Geoff. I really didn't know why they skipped numbers until this. It almost deserves a cookie.
I think initiating invest 91L was a mistake by HPC. They were probably testing their ability to create an invest (they are the backup to NHC) when they did it. If you notice an hour and a half later they created a test invest with lat/lon in the same general area.

invest_al912012.invest 17-Jul-2012 18:07 292
invest_al822012.invest 17-Jul-2012 19:25 653

BEGIN
HPC_ATCF
invest_al912012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207171807
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2012, DB, O, 2012071718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912012
AL, 91, 2012071718, , BEST, 0, 398N, 552W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
I did a blog a last year on the dust bowl, but I deleted some time ago. It had a map of this. The trees are still there.

From US History.

President Roosevelt ordered that the Civilian Conservation Corps plant a huge belt of more than 200 million trees from Canada to Abilene, Texas, to break the wind, hold water in the soil, and hold the soil itself in place. The administration also began to educate farmers on soil conservation and anti-erosion techniques, including crop rotation, strip.......
I dont understand this map sometimes..in the GOM near the panhandle, there isnt any vorticity there but its color purple just the same..



850 mb


500 mb..
Quoting ncstorm:
I dont understand this map sometimes..in the GOM near the panhandle, there isnt any vorticity there but its color purple just the same..



850 mb


500 mb..

Why do you think people don't use that map?
Quoting Neapolitan:
As suspected, Marrakech, Morocco, has (unofficially for now) broken its all-time high with a reading of over 120. The thermometer is expected to rise another two degrees before the day's heating is done; if so, and if verified, that would probably set a new all-time high temperature record for the country. (FWIW, Morocco is also home of the lowest temperature ever recorded in Africa, -23.9C (-11.0 F) in Ifrane in 1935.)

hot />
		 Action: <A onclick=Quote | Ignore User


This is a real odd thing to try and quote on! The quote sign is to the right and it doesn't want to start up as normal.
Anyway, I'm a bit late on this one due to having been forced to go to work this afternoon rather than read on, on here.
Now this Marrakesh thing is a bit odd. Ive been there and its only a few hundred miles south of the Southern Mediterranean coast.
Interesting place for many reasons but from a weather point of view its got the Atlas mountains just about 40 miles to the south of it. Not to be sniffed at they are seriously high and covered in snow in the winter, ( at least when we used to get winters,) The air that is causing us to get very hot is coming from the north of the Sahara desert and has to pass over the Atlas mountains to get to Marrakesh. These mountains are probably about 12,000 feet high on average in that area, so serious record heat is passing over that height, the Canary islands with 104/F are just to the west of the Atlas mountains. All this is not normal and serious problems are going to come from it all for agriculture and people.
So Added to the GOM intense SST heat we have very high atmospheric heat at about the same latitude on the other side of the Atlantic.
Just thought I'd stick my oar in on that one.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why do you think people don't use that map?


Last time I looked its on the NOAA site..someone is using it or it wouldnt be there..
I know I have posted this story many times, so for those you have seen it before, excuse me.

There was a story from the 1930's about a farmer trying to get a mortgage on his farm in Oklahoma. He was standing outside with the bank officer. The bank officer told him that he would have to drive out and see the farm first. The farmer replied, "No need to, its blowing by right now."

No one really knows how many people died during this time, but there have been estimates as high as 25,000 due to lung ailments. It was a tragic event.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
I think initiating invest 91L was a mistake by HPC. They were probably testing their ability to create an invest (they are the backup to NHC) when they did it. If you notice an hour and a half later they created a test invest with lat/lon in the same general area.

invest_al912012.invest 17-Jul-2012 18:07 292
invest_al822012.invest 17-Jul-2012 19:25 653

BEGIN
HPC_ATCF
invest_al912012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207171807
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2012, DB, O, 2012071718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912012
AL, 91, 2012071718, , BEST, 0, 398N, 552W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Thank you for clearing this.
Quoting Grothar:
I know I have posted this story many times, so for those you have seen it before, excuse me.

There was a story from the 1930's about a farmer trying to get a mortgage on his farm in Oklahoma. He was standing outside with the bank officer. The bank officer told him that he would have to drive out and see the farm first. The farmer replied, "No need to, its blowing by right now."

No one really knows how many people died during this time, but there have been estimates as high as 25,000 due to lung ailments. It was a tragic event.


how much of a warning did they have with these dust bowls?
and here comes the 7th name storm of the eastern pacific.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172340
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM FABIO...LOCATED ABOUT 685 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 775 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Anyone else see a low spinning over Northern Florida?
5knots of shear over it

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis. html

it looks like its elongated from North FL to over the SE Georgia Coast
We got a yellow circle!

In the east Pacific...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM FABIO...LOCATED ABOUT 685 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 775 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
and nothing for the Atlantic.
ABNT20 KNHC 172335
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS
Quoting allancalderini:
and here comes the 7th name storm of the eastern pacific.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172340
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM FABIO...LOCATED ABOUT 685 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 775 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

None of the reliable models [GFS, ECMWF, UKMET] develop it.
I hate seeing the drought spread throughout majority of the U.S.A. My heart goes out to those suffering in the heat and drought, I feel your pain, we still have drought going on in Texas but it is not the major drought we had last year. Unfortunately Lake Travis is 4 feet lower now than it was at this time last year because the heavy rains in Central Texas have not been in the right locations. Areas around the Lake had half an inch to inch of rain in 2 days while east of there in Williamson, Travis and Hays counties some locations had rainfall up to 7 inches which flooded Lake Austin. I would love for a tropical depression or storm come thru southern Texas and go west but those chances are slim. I hope the dry areas of the U.S.A. get relief soon. Not sure about rest of the U.S. but Texas is suppose to have normal rainfall in our near future which is good.
927. etxwx
PBS had an American Experience episode on the dust bowl. Those of you with high speed internet can watch it online if interested. The timeline and general article in the special features section make for interesting reading even if you can't watch.
Surviving the Dust Bowl
I have an elderly friend (in her mid 90's) who remembers her family moving from Nebraska to Texas during the dust bowl so her dad could try to find work in the oil fields. They loaded up all the kids and a couple maiden aunts in the big truck and just headed south. They made it and eventually flourished, but it was a tough time.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

None of the reliable models [GFS, ECMWF, UKMET] develop it.




nevere say nevere the nhc did say it has a ch
Quoting Tazmanian:




nevere say nevere the nhc did say it has a ch

I never said never.
Just a note!
From the point of view of where I am about 50 miles north of the straights of Gibraltar today, in a North South line, the nearest clouds with rain are in Northern England and storms over Nigeria. A 1000 or more miles away!
A sort of a dream dry spell.
Millions of people fly here every year to lie in the sun and play Russian roulette with skin cancer.
Now I think we are playing Russian roulette with a potential desert in this area. Only about 8 days rain in the last year and now we are getting up to 120/F in the south of our area.
Almost zero humidity, today we worked on a building site with concrete etc all afternoon and not a bead of sweat on anybody,in 102/F. 50 MPH winds of course as well.
The big problem/fear now, is that its only mid July and we dont get rain till the end of September usually, if we are lucky. Forrest fires, in what forests remain.
Since their is nothing to talk about anyone want to talk about food?.
Quoting Grothar:
I know I have posted this story many times, so for those you have seen it before, excuse me.

There was a story from the 1930's about a farmer trying to get a mortgage on his farm in Oklahoma. He was standing outside with the bank officer. The bank officer told him that he would have to drive out and see the farm first. The farmer replied, "No need to, its blowing by right now."

No one really knows how many people died during this time, but there have been estimates as high as 25,000 due to lung ailments. It was a tragic event.


Great pictures of the dust bowl. If you haven't taken them yourself I assume it was your great great great..greatest grandson.

Woody Guthrie's Dust Pneumonia Blues:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_6GhaA0AXg

Quoting washingtonian115:
Since their is nothing to talk about anyone want to talk about food?.


What about 91L ?
905 washingtonian115 Where is 91L again and why was it tagged?

Yes, I know it was you who first compared 91L with Chris.
So the chiding is not being sent in your direction.

The Westernmost dot is where Invest95L became TropicalStormChris.
The dot to the east on that kinked line is where TS.Chris became HurricaneChris.
(At the positions 6hours in either direction, Chris was a TropicalStorm)
The dot to the north on the kinked line is Chris's final position as a TropicalStorm.

The lone unlabled dot is Invest 91L:
~21miles(33kilometres) farther north than where Chris became a TropicalStorm
~48miles(78kilometres) farther south than where Chris became a Hurricane

And yet there are way too many folks willing to hammer on the NHC (ATCF) for declaring an Invest in an area that has already produced a hurricane earlier this Season when the SeaSurfaceTemperatures were cooler.

YQI is Yarborough,NovaScotia :: YYT is St.Johns,NovaScotia :: CVU is Corvo,Azores
Copy&paste yqi, 39.8n55.2w, yyt, cvu, 39.5n58.0w- 38.9n56.7w- 38.3n54.7w- 38.1n52.3w- 38.2n50.2w- 38.6n47.5w- 39.4n45.6w- 40.5n43.9w, 40.5n43.9w- 41.9n42.9w- 43.3n42.8w- 44.4n43.7w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information

Quoting European58:


Great pictures of the dust bowl. If you haven't taken them yourself I assume it was your great great great..greatest grandson.

Woody Guthrie's Dust Pneumonia Blues:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_6GhaA0AXg



Just let me know what country you are from so I can look up the word "twit" in your language. :)
Quoting kmanislander:


What about 91L ?
Someone said it was a test?.Hey k-man.How's life on the island?.
999
WFUS53 KGLD 172357
TORGLD
KSC181-180045-
/O.NEW.KGLD.TO.W.0014.120717T2357Z-120718T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
557 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN SHERMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM MDT

* AT 553 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 12
MILES NORTHWEST OF BREWSTER. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN SHERMAN COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3956 10140 3947 10142 3947 10164 3957 10162
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 322DEG 5KT 3950 10150
HAIL 1.25IN
$$
Warning just got canceled. I was surprised that storm produced a tornado in the first place.
Quoting Grothar:


Just let me know what country you are from so I can look up the word "twit" in your language. :)


Ik denk dat 'vervelend ventje' de beste vertaling is.

I'm from the netherlands.
890. "Answer: Ocean Temperatures in the 1930's Were Unstable" What does that mean? I'm not sure how temperatures could be unstable. I read the article referenced by the about.com summary and saw nothing about unstable. Just mentioned warmer tropical Atlantic and cooler tropical Pacific.
Popeyes chicken has garlic and paprika in it..with a bit of cajun spice..
Quoting ackee:
How much more storms do u think will develop for the rest of the seasons ?
A 10
B 7
C 6
D 5

F. 9
Quoting washingtonian115:
Popeyes chicken has garlic and paprika in it..with a bit of cajun spice..

I like popeyes chicken better then KFC's IDK why
Quoting Articuno:

I like popeyes chicken better then KFC's IDK why

I agree. Popeyes is the best. :D
Quoting ncstorm:


how much of a warning did they have with these dust bowls?

You mean the haboobs? Not much. A relative mentioned that they were sent home from school when the sky looked like that.
KFC has oregano in it.Also just like Popeyes it features paprika in it...
Quoting jeffs713:

I know. I was referring to the area that was intentionally flooded south of St. Louis.

Very small area compared to the entire floodplain of the Mississippi River. Once they are done cleaning up the major sedimentation issues and getting the holes in the floodway levee replaced, perhaps it would have an impact on crop yields very locally. Not sure if I have read anything about hypothetical before/after differences due to the usage of the floodway, nor any comparison to fields that were not flooded and are kept arable by other methods.
Quoting spathy:


Just another example how the Gov has a rotten record of multitasking. Its doing too many other things it shouldn't,that its incapable of doing the things it should.

Or maybe a sign that they are not funded to do it properly.
Quoting European58:


Ik denk dat 'vervelend ventje' de beste vertaling is.

I'm from the netherlands.


Ja, dat weet ik. Maar, natuurlijk, ik ben ja gewoon plagen.
Based on the looks of it, we will probably get another round of soakers on the west coast of Florida tonight. Thunderstorms are already rapidly redeveloping, it looking out over the gulf just 20 minutes ago there was just lots of low level shallow cumulus, now it looks like little nukes going off in the gulf.
Quoting Articuno:

I like popeyes chicken better then KFC's IDK why

I prefer popeye's. I do like KFC roasted chicken but it is too expensive. I've stayed with my own chicken vindaloo lately.
KFC puts onion powder in their to..
I don't know why... maybe it's the KFC vs. Popeye debate... but I feel like we need a storm to track.
Quoting bappit:
890. "Answer: Ocean Temperatures in the 1930's Were Unstable" What does that mean? I'm not sure how temperatures could be unstable. I read the article referenced by the about.com summary and saw nothing about unstable. Just mentioned warmer tropical Atlantic and cooler tropical Pacific.


Perhaps this could explain it for you. I believe they were referring to baroclinic instability in the ocean may be caused by sea surface termperature and wind stress.


Link
Fabio downgraded to TD.

EP, 06, 2012071800, , BEST, 0, 235N, 1205W, 30, 1006, TD

Link
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I don't know why... maybe it's the KFC vs. Popeye debate... but I feel like we need a storm to track.
In about a month at this time we'll probably be talking about a storm.
Quoting washingtonian115:
KFC puts onion powder in their to..


Wash..you know the secret recipe?..do tell!
Quoting ncstorm:


Wash..you know the secret recipe?..do tell!
I know some spices that goes into both chicken recipes but not all.
Quoting Grothar:


Perhaps this could explain it for you. I believe they were referring to baroclinic instability in the ocean may be caused by sea surface termperature and wind stress.


Link

Yeah. Uh huh. I prefer irregular German verbs to this.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I know some spices that goes into both chicken recipes but not all.


send them to me in WU mail..I wanna take a crack at it..
Quoting bappit:

Yeah. Uh huh. I prefer irregular German verbs to this.


LOL. sein bin-bist-ist-seid-sein
war-warst-war waren-wart
bin gewesen-bist gewesen-ist gewesen
sind gewesen-waren gewesen...etc. etc.



WE got a blog about extreme temps and now we got a blog about hot, spicy food.
Whatever next.
Hot Fashion?
964. txjac
I prefer the KFC ...however hadnt had any in years ...
Drought and Fire Danger Information
Widespread Drought Continues to Intensify Across Southwest Lower Michigan

Synopsis
Ongoing persistent dryness along with well above normal temperatures has led to steadily worsening drought conditions across the region. The outlook for the remainder of July indicates continued below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures. A continued warmer and drier than normal scenario will undoubtedly support a detrimental increase in regional drought severity. Extended drought conditions will lead to further water supply issues, such as record low streamflows and heavier strains on aquifers. Agricultural loss estimates will continue to mount. Crop yield estimates will likely diminish and livestock stress and losses will increase.


The drought intensity across the region varies, as defined by The United States Drought Monitor Index:

Across Southwest Lower Michigan, D0 to D1 or Abnormally Dry to Moderate drought conditions exist.


Summary of impacts
-Reports of large and rapidly spreading grass and field fires have already been reported. This trend will be expected to worsen as live fuel moisture content continues to decrease.
-Many creeks and streams are running at or near record low flow. Large stem river flows are in the single percentile of normal flow, with some at all-time record low flow.
-The shallow water levels have led to warmer than normal streamwater temperatures, and this is causing increased concern for unfavorable aquatic habitat for mussels and other macro invertebrates.
-Agricultural impacts are continually being assessed, however economic losses are already being reported for this growing season.

Climate summary
Rainfall over the region has been significantly below normal for the past month and below normal since June. This lack of rain has led to some of the driest conditions on record.

Precipitation/temperature outlook
With the exception of a few fast moving weather systems, high pressure will continue to dominate the weather over the region through the end of July. Continued dry weather and warming daytime temperatures will steadily worsen the drought conditions in Southwest Lower Michigan, while the latest 6 to 10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates the chance for above normal precipitation, conditions do not look favorable for widespread heavy rainfall from July 17th through July 21st. While temperatures will be near normal this weekend, climatological trends and long range forecasts indicate hot temperatures will return by the start of next week and continue.

Hydrologic summary and outlook
All rivers across Southwest Lower Michigan are experiencing flows that are at or near record low values. There has been a gradual but steady fall in river and stream levels over the past several months and this trend is expected to continue through September when average flow minimums occur. With the lack of significant rainfall expected, rivers and streams are expected to continue their slow fall through July. Lake levels across the region are expected to continue to fall as well. This may create problems for boaters and swimmers. Caution should be exercised as more hazardous objects that had been covered by water may now be exposed or nearly exposed.

Quoting Tribucanes:
Daniel the prophet told of a "world-wide web" that would come before the end. Not trying to push religion, just saying this was a pretty good call on his part. Computers make us far less intellectual and far more selfish and less able to communicate. Too bad the universal message is, computers make us more important and smarter. US test scores tells us which one is accurate. Fifty years ago we still had families in America too, that didn't hurt any.


The Hopi tribe says that when there is an invisible web in the sky, the end is near. Now one has appeared, linking up all of the cell phones, etc....

Not much going on wave wise
Quoting Articuno:

Not much going on wave wise


Yeah,only a couple of weak waves right now. I think July will go without any development. IMO,Ernesto will form by the second week of August.
KFC is the best. Their chicken is WUNDERBAR!!
Anyone ever been to the Big Chicken:



The eyes move in a circle and the beak opens and closes
From the USGS:

The world's great deserts were formed by natural processes interacting over long intervals of time. During most of these times, deserts have grown and shrunk independent of human activities. Paleodeserts, large sand seas now inactive because they are stabilized by vegetation, extend well beyond the present margins of core deserts, such as the Sahara. In some regions, deserts are separated sharply from surrounding, less arid areas by mountains and other contrasting landforms that reflect basic structural differences in the regional geology. In other areas, desert fringes form a gradual transition from a dry to a more humid environment, making it more difficult to define the desert border.
These transition zones have very fragile, delicately balanced ecosystems. Desert fringes often are a mosaic of microclimates. Small hollows support vegetation that picks up heat from the hot winds and protects the land from the prevailing winds. After rainfall the vegetated areas are distinctly cooler than the surroundings. In these marginal areas, human activity may stress the ecosystem beyond its tolerance limit, resulting in degradation of the land. By pounding the soil with their hooves, livestock compact the substrate, increase the proportion of fine material, and reduce the percolation rate of the soil, thus encouraging erosion by wind and water. Grazing and the collection of firewood reduces or eliminates plants that help to bind the soil.

Below is the encroachment of the Sahara in Mauritania.

Good night everyone, have a safe evening
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I'll see your chill music and raise you this:

I just finished up a new blog... It has a quick summary of the tropics and then I go into some detail on what I'm doing at the Blue Hill Meteorological Observatory this summer... It's pretty interesting I think... You should check it out :)

Link
"91L" did not get a 0z update so I think it's safe to assume it was a mistake.
Good nite folks..vorticity is increasing on the east and west coast of florida

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
RE # 972....All In can say is that was awesome. Thank you for sharing Keep..
Another " Time " its definitely worth a listen If you have not heard it...img src="">
980. txjac
Hey Bohonk ..was up your way yesterday ... on my way to San Angelo for work ...just wanted to say hi if you are on line
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I'll see your chill music and raise you this:



wtf

this is how you roll
Quoting Articuno:


wtf

this is how you roll

Local on the 8s music ^

This beats all.

Navy seems to be following 91L. Just updated GOES 0145Z.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I would love for a tropical depression or storm come thru southern Texas and go west but those chances are slim.

We got lucky with Hermine Sept 10... If she hadn't come through AND last year happened like it did.... we would have no Highland Lakes at all.

With no persistent high pressure dome this year, we have a good a chance as anybody else of a drenching TS.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Since their is nothing to talk about anyone want to talk about food?.



im munching on some seedless grapes.......ummmmmmm

O'ahu's south shores invaded by mysterious creature
Reported by: Brianne Randle


The south shore of O'ahu is being invaded by something strange from sea, that even has sand crabs running for cover.

"It's the first time I've seen this, I've never seen it before," says beach goer Bruce Kuwana.

"It's really weird, it looks like you want to eat it like a little berry," says beach goer Sonya Lake.

"There are probably millions I'd say," says beach goer Scott Paddock.

If you look closely the entire shoreline is dotted with tiny, purple creatures all curled up.

"Looks like it has about it 6 legs on each side," says Lake. "Yeah it's like an avatar crab."

"When something washes up like this you don't know what to expect, maybe Tsunami stuff," says Kuwana.

It's something many have never seen before. And no one we found knew what they were.

"I definitely want to know where they came from and what they are all about," says Paddock.

Even the biologists at the Waikiki Aquarium are scratching their heads. They've been getting reports of the pea-sized crabs from Kahala to Ala Moana, all this week.

"The lifeguard called and asked what these things were because she had reports of surfers were actually have these things crawl up on their boards and onto them," says Norton Chan, Waikiki Aquarium Biologist.

He can't find a specific name for the animal - all he knows is they are some type of crab still in the larvae stage.

"What you are seeing is a swimming stage probably a few more molts before they settle into their actual crab stage itself," says Chan.

Likely the ones we spotted on the sand were dead or will be soon. He estimates there could have been millions that came up onto our beaches in the past few days.

"I don't think it's that common but ever so often when conditions are right these animals really start coming in," says Chan.

Waikiki Aquarium officials are saving some, hoping to keep them alive long enough to see how they grow.

"There's a lot of things we don't know about the ocean so any opportunity like this is a great learning experience," says Chan.

At this point it's still unknown where these crabs came from, how big they'll get and what they eat.
Confused climate: Anchorage Alaska experiences coldest first-half of July on record
Posted on July 17, 2012

July 17, 2012 – ALASKA – Looking for relief from the heat over much of the Lower 48 states? Head to coastal Alaska where they are experiencing the coldest first half of July on record! Through the first 14 days of July, the average temperature in Anchorage was 53.1 degrees factoring in daily highs and lows, which makes it the coldest first half of the month on record according to the National Weather Service in Anchorage. Should this temperature trend continue, it could threaten the record for the coldest July ever, which occurred in 1920 and had an average temperature of 54.4 degrees. Typically this stretch of time is the warmest of the year. Instead, temperatures in the city of Anchorage are running 5.3 degrees below average. Some days have even turned out colder than cities on the Arctic Coast such as Barrow. On July 12th, the high temperature topped out at 54 degrees in Anchorage, while temperatures soared to 62 in Barrow (a whooping 15 degrees above average.) Not only has it been cool, but residents of the Alaska city haven’t seen much sunlight due to overcast skies and a persistent flow off the ocean. Rainfall through the first 14 days is running slightly above normal at 120 percent. But the clouds and cool temperatures have been the bigger story. –Accuweather


Ice break: A massive iceberg larger than Manhattan has broken away from the floating end of a Greenland glacier this week, an event scientists predicted last autumn. The giant ice island is 46 square miles, and separated from the terminus of the Petermann Glacier, one of Greenland’s largest. The Petermann Glacier last birthed — or “calved” — a massive iceberg two years ago, in August 2010. The iceberg that broke off and floated away was nearly four times the size of Manhattan, and one of the largest ever recorded in Greenland. Although the new iceberg isn’t as colossal as its 2010 predecessor, its birth has moved the front end of the massive glacier farther inland than it has been in 150 years, Andreas Muenchow, an associate professor of physical ocean science and engineering at the University of Delaware, said in a statement. Jason Box, a scientist with Ohio State University’s Byrd Polar Research Center, has also been monitoring the Petermann Glacier and in September 2011 he told OurAmazingPlanet that a growing crack likely would sever the glacier once warmer weather took hold during the summer months. “We can see the crack widening in the past year through satellite pictures, so it seems imminent,” Box said at the time. Muenchow said that the newest ice island broke away on Monday morning (July 16). Although iceberg birth is a natural, cyclical process, when the process speeds up, there are consequences. The floating ends of glaciers, known as ice shelves, act as doorstops. When these ice shelves suddenly splinter and weaken or even collapse entirely, as has been observed in Antarctica, the glaciers that feed them speed up, dumping more ice into the ocean and raising global sea levels. “The Greenland ice sheet as a whole is shrinking, melting and reducing in size as the result of globally changing air and ocean temperatures and associated changes in circulation patterns in both the ocean and atmosphere,” Muenchow said. -MSNBC
WV burst....