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Hilda Fizzling as it Approaches Hawaii; Twin Typhoons Coming to the Western Pacific

By: Jeff Masters 3:29 PM GMT on August 13, 2015

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Big Island of Hawaii has been dropped as Tropical Storm Hilda heads westwards at 9 mph on a course that will take it no closer than 150 miles south of the Big Island. High wind shear of 30 - 40 knots continues to disrupt Hilda, and satellite loops on Thursday morning showed the storm struggling to keep a respectable amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its core. Shear will remain a high 25 - 40 knots through Friday, the surrounding atmosphere will grow increasingly dry, and sea surface temperatures will cool slightly, which should cause Hilda to weaken to a tropical depression on Friday, if not sooner. However, even if Hilda dissipates before reaching Hawaii, it will still be capable of bringing heavy rains to the islands, particularly to the Big Island. The 2 am EDT (06Z) Thursday run of the HWRF model predicted that the eastern portion of the Big Island would see 4 - 8" of rain over the next few days from Hilda, with the southern portion of Maui receiving 2 - 4". Rains of this magnitude will be capable of causing dangerous floods and mudslides. Hawaii could use some rain, though--today's Drought Monitor classified 26% of the state as being in moderate or greater drought.


Figure 1. When a hurricane unravels: high wind shear due to strong upper-level westerly winds on Wedneday, August 12, 2015, exposed the low level center of Hurricane Hilda to view. Hilda's heavy thunderstorms were all on the east side of the center of circulation in this MODIS satellite image from approximately 9 pm EDT, when Hilda had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Twin typhoons likely next week in the Western Pacific
In the Western Pacific, a pair of tropical disturbances, 97W and 98W, appear destined to become twin typhoons early next week, according to the latest runs of the European and GFS models. Both of these storms will have the potential to cause trouble for Asia late next week. The twin storms will be close enough together that they could influence each other, making prediction of their track and intensity more difficult than usual.


Figure 2. Surface winds over the Pacific Ocean on Thursday morning, August 13, 2015. Image credit: http://earth.nullschool.net/.

Ten years ago today
Tropical Depression Ten formed on August 13, 2015, from a tropical wave that emerged from the west coast of Africa on August 8. As a result of strong wind shear, the depression remained weak and did not strengthen beyond tropical depression status, and degenerated on August 14. Its remnants partially contributed to the formation of Tropical Depression Twelve, which eventually intensified into Hurricane Katrina. Thanks go to wunderground members MonsterTrough and BiloxiIsle for posting this in my blog comments.

The Atlantic remains quiet today, with no tropical cyclone development likely over the next five days.

Bob Henson will have a new post by 2 pm EDT this afternoon on the latest monthly El Niño update issued by NOAA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Re: 319. Grothar...

Good call!!!
Thanks, Dr. Masters
Thx Jeff. I rarely post, but I got Biloxisle by a few comments on TD10. #313
Just FYI Dr. Masters, twin is misspelled in the blog title line.
Thank you Dr. Masters and that was sincere of you to recognize Biloxilsle's post on TD 12 which would become Katrina. Also, a shout out to Grothar for always recognizing when the Doc is about to post a new blog entry. Interested to see what these twin typhoons will do, if they will do the fujiwhara dance, congeal into one storm, or one kills the other, and where they ultimately end up, and how that might impact our weather here in the US in the coming weeks. Good to see the big island of Hawaii receiving some beneficial rains, did not know they were in a drought. Looking forward to Dr. Henson's post on the latest El Niño update, which I'm sure Scott is eager to comment on. :)
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Grothar knows too much! lol
Latest forecast suggests 'Godzilla El Niño' may be coming to California

Excerpt:

“This definitely has the potential of being the Godzilla El Niño,” said Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.
Quoting 334. Barefootontherocks:

Excuse me. My comment at 233 was an answer to a brand new wu member whose question to commenters about continuing drought in the Dominican Republic had gone unanswered for several hours*. Don't be blaming your hurricane(s) on me. I do not wishcast or do any form of spellcasting. Whether or not you believe the Chinese saying, "Be careful for what you wish," you get what you get. Nature will balance itself when and in whatever way necessary.

*233. Barefootontherocks
Quoting 161. Gurena:

I am really starting to worry. it is almost september and we have not seen the first decent tropical or even a tropical depression in the Dominican Republic. A serious draught is affecting us in a time of year where rains are really common. Shall we have consider this will continue during the whole season?
........
I don't know the answer to your question. There are wunderground members from the Caribbean who watch the forecasts there and may be able to answer you or guide you to where you can find a longer term forecast. I hope you get some rain soon!
Calm down, barefoot... I was just answering your comment because the original comment was on a prior page... furthermore you imputed to me a malice that I in no way felt or intended. Like the original poster, if a storm comes I'm likely to get at least some impact from it. I was reminding everyone, including myself, that the risks are as great as the prizes. I guess I could have made myself clearer.

I appreciate your calling attention to this comment as the Caribbean members of our blog are often the ones to get the worst of a bad season. Seems they're getting the worst of a "good " season too... :o/
Good guess on the twin typhoons ....
Amazing what Nature can bring up, TD 10 to TD 12 became this deadly storm, Hurricane Katrina. Just astonishing.
Prior to seeing " Bob Henson will have a new post by 2 pm EDT afternoon on the latest monthly El Niño update issued by NOAA ", this from the NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge: " The strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean has the potential to become one of the most powerful on record, as warming ocean waters surge toward the Americas, setting up a pattern that could bring once-in-a-generation storms this winter to drought-parched California.
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that all computer models are now predicting a strong El Niño to peak in the late fall or early winter. A host of observations have led scientists to conclude that “collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect a significant and strengthening El Niño.”

“This definitely has the potential of being the Godzilla El Niño,” said Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.

"Tropical Depression Ten formed on August 13, 2015, from a tropical wave that emerged from the west coast of Africa on August 8."

I know you obviously meant 2005 and someone else has probably already pointed this typo out.
With this intensifying El Nino forecast I'm wondering if California might not end up like Europe in reverse... that is, record drought followed by record rain... :-/
Thank You Dr. Another round for the West-Pac in an incredible Pacific season so far.............

Quoting 10. nrtiwlnvragn:

Latest forecast suggests 'Godzilla El Niño' may be coming to California

Excerpt:

“This definitely has the potential of being the Godzilla El Niño,” said Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.
Oh, Geez. We're never going to hear the end of this now...
Here's the blog when the sad little TD-10 developed in August 2005 and then subsequently got ripped a part by high wind shear.

Many of our current regulars' posts are still noted, as well as some long gone from the blog.

Link
Makes sense; Jurassic Hot leading to a Godzilla El Nino....................................
I have a friend that manages the Ocean Safety department of Maui Parks. The path and strength of Hilda has him pretty cranked off. Far enough away so there will be almost no rain, and Maui needs it. Close enough so the surf will be bad and he has to double the lifeguard staff for the weekend with all the overtime costs. Sometimes tropical cyclones have costs I don't even think about.
Rodan El Nino?
11 years ago today Charley was smacking Florida and 10 years ago the T.D that helped form K formed....In the Atlantic today?

Quoting 19. CybrTeddy:

Here's the blog when the sad little TD-10 developed in August 2005 and then subsequently got ripped a part by high wind shear.

Many of our current regulars' posts are still noted, as well as some long gone from the blog.

Link
Actually, I only counted two that still post today. I remember that one though. It was right after STORMTOP once again had gotten everyone stirred up with a killer hurricane coming to Florida. There was no quote feature then and no mods except for Dr. Masters. I think I just didn't post for the rest of the season, but I was watching TD10 with interest.
Quoting 6. tampabaymatt:

Just FYI Dr. Masters, twin is misspelled in the blog title line.


Thanks!

Dr. M
Quoting 5. MonsterTrough:

Thx Jeff. I rarely post, but I got Biloxisle by a few comments on TD10. #313



So noted! Thanks for posting this.

Dr. M.
Quoting 27. JeffMasters:



So noted! Thanks for posting this.

Dr. M.
What about hurricane Charley Doc?
Thanks Dr. M--

FYI--I think the date that Tropical Depression 10 formed should be Aug 13, 2005, not 2015 as is stated in the last paragraph.
Thanks Doc..The Ten Years Ago Today segment is one of the main reasons I am thankful when the Atlantic is quiet. I went through Charley, that was bad, Katrina was hell on Earth.
Thanks for the new entry, doc.

After Katrina: New Orleans then and now – interactive photographs
Ten years after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans, photographer Mario Tama of Getty Images returns to the city to document how things have changed
The Guardian, Thursday 13 August 2015 07.00 BST
Quoting 24. washingtonian115:

11 years ago today Charley was smacking Florida and 10 years ago the T.D that helped form K formed....In the Atlantic today?


Also, TD 4 which went on to become Hurricane Dean formed 8 years ago on this date.
Quoting 32. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Also, TD 4 which went on to become Hurricane Dean formed 8 years ago on this date.


Dean was an interesting one. You rarely see storms that track straight west like that into Central America. Felix a few weeks later did that too, and so did Emily in 2005, Gilbert in 1988, Allen in 1980... et cetera.
35. JRRP
Quoting 32. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Also, TD 4 which went on to become Hurricane Dean formed 8 years ago on this date.

GFS did a very good job forecasting hurricane Dean
Quoting 33. CybrTeddy:



Dean was an interesting one. You rarely see storms that track straight west like that into Central America. Felix a few weeks later did that too, and so did Emily in 2005, Gilbert in 1988, Allen in 1980... et cetera.
2008 was an interesting year. For some reason I think Felix and graupel in the same thought...
This is my kind of weather. Hope we're done with the 110F+ heat indices until next year.

Quoting 25. sar2401:

Actually, I only counted two that still post today. I remember that one though. It was right after STORMTOP once again had gotten everyone stirred up with a killer hurricane coming to Florida. There was no quote feature then and no mods except for Dr. Masters. I think I just didn't post for the rest of the season, but I was watching TD10 with interest.
I count 5 ... haven't seen wxguy03 post for a while...
Interesting that TD10 forecast was generally correct... I don't even remember Jose now...
Just remember, still a whopping 28 days until the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season. I think before it's all said and done there will be at least one hurricane to make landfall on US shores. Waters are very warm and all it's going to take is a lull in the wind shear and dry air to get a storm or 2 or 3.

Updating loop showing cloud top temperatures (red=very cold) over Europe. Major squall line, currently over Belgium, heads to southeastern England which already experienced flashflooding earlier. BTW another day with 36C (97F) in my German backyard in Mainz, uff.
Quoting 32. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Also, TD 4 which went on to become Hurricane Dean formed 8 years ago on this date.
Dean was a beast a straight G.lol
Quoting 22. tampabaymatt:




Hey Matt, do you think that linw will sag into the bay area? I'm afraid it will later this afternoon.
low.pressure..56w17n.no.convection
Quoting 24. washingtonian115:

11 years ago today Charley was smacking Florida and 10 years ago the T.D that helped form K formed....In the Atlantic today?


Even the Camels couldn't see though the dusty Atlantic desert!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 43. Bucsboltsfan:



Hey Matt, do you think that linw will sag into the bay area? I'm afraid it will later this afternoon.


Well, the last few runs of the HRRR model do not show much rain for Tampa through the forecast period. The NWS seems to think this boundary is going to gradually weaken starting later today, so it doesn’t appear this will be a flooding event for the immediate Tampa Bay area. I have not had a drop of rain at my location today.
.
And the EURO and NAVGEM wake up to the Cape Verde season.
Shorted lived blog ever