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High wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:01 PM GMT on May 26, 2006

April 2006 was the warmest April on record in the U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. The U.S. has now had two "warmest ever" months this year, January and April. The nationally averaged April temperature was 56.5F (13.6C), which was 4.5F (2.5C) above the 1901-2000 (20th century) mean. Globally, April ranked as the 7th warmest April on record, and the period January through April ranks as the 6th warmest such period on record globally. From Figure 1, we can see that the entire tropical Atlantic region where hurricane formation occurs was warmer than average during April, and this region has remained about .5 - 1.5 degrees C above normal over the past few months.


Figure 1. Temperature Anomalies (difference of temperature from normal) for April 2006.

With all this warmer than normal water over the Atlantic, one might expect that hurricane season could have an earlier than normal start. However, that will not be the case this year, because high levels of wind shear will dominate the regions where June tropical cyclones typically form--the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf is the primary genesis region in June because that is typically the only region where we get initial disturbances that can set a tropical storm spinning up. These initial disturbances in June are usually the remains of an old cold front or upper-level trough that stalls out over the Gulf and festers for a few days, gradually developing deep convection and spinning up into a tropical depression. June is too soon to get a tropical storm in the Caribbean or tropical Atlantic, since the tropical waves that typically serve as the initial seed for a storm are still too far south. The tropical waves coming off of Africa right now are at about six degrees latitude, and they need to be at nine degrees latitude or higher before they are far enough from the equator to serve as a seed for a tropical storm.

For the start of this year's hurricane season next week, the GFS model (Figure 2) is forecasting that there will be strong upper-level winds over the Gulf of Mexico. These winds are part of the so-called Subtropical jet stream. The jet stream--the band of high velocity winds that circles the globe--always has at least one branch, the polar jet. As its name implies, the polar jet lies close to the pole, and circles it entirely. Sometimes the jet splits, and a branch called the Subtropical jet blows across subtropical latitudes, where the Gulf of Mexico lies. As we can see from the GFS forecast for June 3 in Figure 2, both the polar and subtropical jets are apparent where the color coding indicates strong winds at the 300 millibar level (the jet stream occurs at an altitude in the atmosphere where the pressure ranges between 300 mb and 200 mb). The strong winds of the Subtropical jet will create too much wind shear for a tropical storm to form in the Gulf of Mexico next week, and the jet is expected to remain strong for at least the next two weeks. So, an early start to hurricane season looks unlikely this year.


Figure 2. GFS forecast for June 3 2006 at 300 millibars, the altitude where the jet stream is found. The polar and subtropical branches of the jet stream are clearly visible where upper-level wind speeds are highest. An area of light upper level winds and low wind shear is forecast to develop over the southern Caribbean Sea.

What about the southern Caribbean Sea, where the GFS model is predicting very light upper level winds, and where wind shear is likely to be low? Well, we will have to watch this area for tropical storm formation, but as I indicated before, the tropical waves one needs to act as the seed for a storm are usually too far south in June. Tropical waves usually do not start entering the Caribbean until July.

Have a worry-free weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Great news Dr. Masters. I have read a lot about SE and SW FL having an above average chance for a hurricane this year. Do you agree with this? Also, do you think this year will be more like 2004 than 2005? (2004 less hurricanes but more intensity). Thanks.
By the way, has anybody looked at the Weather Research Center's outlooks yet; including the Gulf of Mexico major hurricane risk (another forecaster said that New Orleans had a high risk of a strike as well)?

Note: I don't think that they actually forecast the number of storms (they forecast only 11); they base it on the average of past years, one of which is 1933, the second most active season on record.
hey all i am bck. at wor so just lurking
I am confused. I thought that the NHC predictions were slightly lower then last year due to the cooler SSTs. I have been trying to point out that the SSTs in much of the Atlantic and Carib appear to be warmer then last year. There were several disputes to this along with what the NHC stated. So are the temps warmer or not. Check out year to year SST comparisons here.

As for the June storm, I would not be suprised to see something form in an area that is not expected. Like last year I think the unusual is likely through out this season.

SJ
SJ
stormjunkie, most of the maps you showed are of the northern atlantic where hurricanes generally don't form. Especially this early in the season.
As a weather neophyte I'm looking at the nifty graphic on temperature anomalies and it is clear that large portions of the globe are on average experiencing higher temperatures. Yet, some areas like western Austrailia are experienceing below normal temperatures. Why? Is this also related to ocean temperature and wind shear?
Like last year I think the unusual is likely through out this season.

Yea, me too. I mean, the entire fact that zeta actually managed to come into existence makes me wonder if we might actually end up having a june system anyway. Then again, it is a new year, and anything could really happen.

Hmm. I wonder what the hottest the waters will get all year is.
Mich, the maps I have posted show a large portion of the Carib and central Atlanitic which is where most storms form. Hardly just the N ATlantic. Also the waters should only get warmer the further south you go on those maps. Next the heat content of the loop current/Gulf Stream is very strong/unusual this year. Not to mention those are some of the most detailed sst maps I have found and that seems to be the best region for an overall comparison.

SJ
I can't believe the amount of misdirection or confusion that is being created about SST's These charts below were the only ones that I could find that had the SAME EXACT Temperature Scale and were from the same exact dates only 3 years appart. The reason I had to go to 2003 was because for some mysterious reason the 2004-2005 images are gone?
2003


2005
11. Alec
Talking about heat content, there is 81-82 degree water 300+ deep in the loop current!
12. Alec
I meant 300ft* deep...sorry...
2003
Array_B

2006Array_B
These maps (departure from normal in degrees C) have the same scale and you can see that the Atlantic is cooler than it was last year, except for a large pool of cooler than normal waters in the northern areas last year:

May 24, 2005:


May 23, 2006:
What are you getting at 53rd? All of the map comparisons I posted have the same scale except for the one of the Gulf. The Gulf Stream/Central Atlantic ones I posted have the same scale with a max of 31c.

SJ
2003
Array_B
2006
Array_B
Michael your maps are bogus. For one that year you claim to be 06 is 03.

SJ
Those maps are on different scales, which is why the gulf stream appears much warmer then during 2003. The map in 03 starts at 0 degrees while the map in 06 starts at 5 degrees.
Ummm... it is 2006; look here (you can't read it well when it is resized).
Also note that the maps here are of the current image for this year where all previous years are from May 31. That way I do not have to update all maps everyday, not to mention that many areas are already hotter then they have been in previous years on May 31.

SJ
Thanks Myles. This is exactally the miss direction/confusion that I believe is causing all of this. I am so sick of this friging argument I just threw up in my own mouth.
Sorry...here

So the Gulf is cooler then the norm comparison from last year, but much of the Atlantic is warmer. All I know is that the map comparisons I posted imply that temps are warmer and now that is what Dr M is saying also, so I am sticking with that theory for now. These various sst maps can make it very confusing.

SJ
StormJunkie - the maps I posted are accurate; please see my post about the resizing causing the 2006 to look like 2003.
Don't shoot!...I just want to share what I feel the Lord has shown me so far for this year. Take it with a grain of salt! Last year I saw 4 major hurricanes before hand. However, not much for this year yet; it seems other things are priorities. I was only show 2 and I'm not so sure they were major. I don't expect to be in Fla. this year thou and sold my house in Pensacola! I do feel shown this year will be wet for S.Fla. If anyone has any questions they can email me. wliv32503@hotmail.com Sorry to bother you; thanks. Bill
25. WSI
May 25th, 2005










May 25th, 2006




53rd and myles...Are you saying that the scales on the maps in my blog are not the same?

I think they are. Please check again.

SJ
I said 53rd's scales were different. Your scales are the same. However, here are maps that are in Lefty's blog that show this year to clearly be cooler then 2005.

May 20th 2005


May 25th 2006
img src="
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2006145atsst.png">
Oh well, WSI beat me to it anyways.
Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:54 AM EDT on May 26, 2006

we can see that the entire tropical Atlantic region where hurricane formation occurs was warmer than average during April, and this region has remained about .5 - 1.5 degrees C above normal over the past few months.

What are you going to believe? The more accurate maps that I have posted or some graphic procuced from who knows where?

SJ
Myles-Do you have a problem with the scales on the maps I posted?

SJ
31. Alec
produced* that will be $5 bucks SJ, pay up to the spelling police!!!LOL
StormJunkie - Here is where my maps came from; notice that the 2006 map I posted above is not from 2003!

You have not responded to my posts on that yet.
I already posted I did not. However, this year SSTs are .5-1.5 warmer then average. Last year they were 2-3 degrees warmer then average. BTW, the maps posted by WSI are from NOAA/AOML, I'd say they are pretty trust worthy.
34. WSI
Well, some parts are cooler, and some parts are warmer. It is a matter of which part of the Atlantic you are looking at.
man its good to be back lol
36. WSI
Dr. Masters was talking air temperature, not water temperature.
37. WSI
Figure 1 is air temperature, not water temperature.
Hey leftyy hows the a$$?..LOL Are we comparing last years actually SST's to this years, or SST's anomalies. You guys are confusing me!..LOL
I understand that was a sizing issue Michael. Sorry. Ok now moving on to the SSTs.

Welcome Alec. I hate that I can not edit it after I post. lol. I saw that before your post. Putting 5.01 in the mail today.

Care to chime in on the SSTs? lol again.

I understand the maps are from NOAA, but they are not as accurate as the maps I have posted. Much of the Atlantic and Carib are warmer then last year. I am not talking about the Gulf.

Welcome Lefty.

SJ
Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:54 AM EDT on May 26, 2006

With all this warmer than normal water over the Atlantic,

Was he talking Air?

Wow my eyes must be bad.

SJ
Notice even in those NOAA maps how much further N the warmer then normal temps go.

SJ
42. WSI
"Was he talking Air?

Wow my eyes must be bad."




Ok take it easy, no need for the attitude.

I was simply saying that Figure 1 was air temperature, else explain how the water over Kansas was warmer SJ.


You quoted this part of the Dr's blog..



"we can see that the entire tropical Atlantic region where hurricane formation occurs was warmer than average during April, and this region has remained about .5 - 1.5 degrees C above normal over the past few months."


That figure refers to air temp.
43. Alec
Guys, I was a bit confused earlier but lots of the SST maps are on different scales...I'd say the big NOAA, APL maps are reliable......I'd say comparing a bunch of SST maps for the same day would let you see which ones are more like the others and if there were any odd ones that stick out....
Yes WSI it does, but it correlates in to SST and I thought that was understood since that is where the Doctor was headed with it in the first place.

I just do not understand how the perception could be that overall temps are cooler then last year. The Gulf is cooler and if that is what any of you are tlaking about I will gladly agree.

SJ
No offense WSI, just seemed like you were trying to twist the point with the air thing.

Alright all I am out to get some sun and lunch. Check in later.

StormJunkie.com

SJ
If you look at my maps, the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are cooler (darker yellow = more above normal). Also, look at WSI's maps (both have the same scales, as do the departure maps I posted).
47. Alec
The Western Gulf is above average in terms of climatology but last yr much of the Gulf was MUCH warmer climatologically speaking...
The maps here have the same scale except for the one of the Gulf of Mexico.

Maybe I should say this. There is much more warmer water in the Carib and Atlantic then there was last year.

SJ
I have cut out the Altalntic areas and combined them (full sized) so that you can see that the tropics last year were hotter (forget about the far northern Atlantic, which is warmer this year as compared to last year):



Darker yellows/oranges/reds = larger positive anomalies (more above normal). The above normal temperatures are more widespread this year and the Atlantic may be warmer overall, but the tropics are the most important areas.
Thanks Micheal. You prove my point with those maps. There is a much larger amount of warmer water this year as opposed to last year. Yes, there are some areas that were warmer last year, but again overall the Atlantic and Carribean are warmer then last year.

Far N, since when did the central Atlantic and Carib become the far N ATlantic? Don't stretch the facts Michael. There is a much larger mass of warmer water then there was last year. Again, leave the Gulf out of this as it will get warmer then last year and most of the other areas will also with the heat we are seeing.

SJ
Look at the Bahamas and the E coast in those maps you posted Michael. Now find Bermuda and look at the areas around it. Much larger mass of warmer waters. And these are all areas that cyclones can form.

SJ
52. Alec
SJ, How about we all dump ice into the ocean, starting with the Gulf!!!LOL
News article about the new GOES sat. upgrades..

Link
That should do the trick Alec. Question is where you gonna get all that ice? Geuss we could just nuke off some chunks of one of the ice sheets and tow em down to the gulf? Then we can build some super nano carbon tubes to transport oil safely to all the big corps, kinda web them across the globe. We can continue to blow off chunks fot he ice sheets for years.

Make it so.

lol
SJ
Can not wait to have the new Goes!!!!

As long as by time we get access it has not been privatized.

SJ
that disturbance in the east pacific has a nice surface circualtion but convection is disorganized
thats good news. without them there would be no cyclone phase analysis.
Actually, microwave shows that convection is starting to wrap around the center:



Model Forecast
Alight boys and girls! FSU is back.

Phase Analysis
Okay, I've got it!!! The mother of all solutions. It really is hard to be this good.

Yesterday, we were talking about all the LNG(liquified natural gas) that is, and will be, headed to the states in the near future.

(1) The LNG is recovered natural gas that would otherwise be flared(burned) off the oil production platforms. So, by recovering these flared volumes, we clean up our air and remove some heat from the atmosphere.

(2) LNG, in the tanker, is roughly -200 F. Before it can be exported to the nations pipeline systems, it must be vaporized using a warm heat sink. Let's build all of the LNG terminals off-shore and use warm seawater. That will chill it down some. Note: This is actually going to happen in one of the terminals going off the coast of Louisiana and is currently under a rigorous environmental review.

(3) We use the LNG as our primary fuel source for transportation and power stations. Natural gas is certainly a cleaner fuel source than gasoline and burns one heck of a lot cleaner than coal. More air cleaning.

There. All problems solved. That was easy.

Removing tongue from cheek now.

62. Alec
speaking of microwaves, I'm off to lunch!!!LOL
Latest Quikscat on the EPAC wave.


Surface outflow has ceased and it is farther north than the previous two "attempts". CIRA's graphics show increasing low-level cyclonicity and shear is 15-20 kts with moderate instability. This one might be for real.
When will the GFDL be run; it usually starts when there is an invest?
65. Alec
Posted By: HurricaneMyles at 1:22 PM EDT on May 26, 2006.
Alight boys and girls! FSU is back.


Actually FSU has been here for quite some time!lol and you are also fined $5 for spelling "alright" wrong!LOL...spelling police is off to lunch with the models!....
LOL @ spelling police. And it was new to me, even though someone else posted that it was back 15 mins ago. Good to see that FSU didnt fall to the threat of being sued for people's own stupidity.
67. WSI
"No offense WSI, just seemed like you were trying to twist the point with the air thing."


No prob SJ, just didn't want you getting upset and misinterpreting what I was saying. :) Seemed like everyone was talking that graphic to mean water, when it meant air.
you are also fined $5 for spelling "alright" wrong!

Bzzzzt! sorry Alec, you are fined $50 for not knowing that there is no word such as alright, it is all right, tho....better luck next time!
69. Alec
Its not a standard usage(from the thesaurus) but better than "alight"!lol
Ft. Lauderdale is getting a real good thunder storm right now...Great thunder and lightning...I imagine my dog is under the bed by now--and the cat has disappeared too!
The GFS shows a cyclone moving out to sea off New England and then moving southwest, becoming warm-core along the way; it could possibly develop.
Michael, its bad enough to have to look to Africa, the ICTZ, the Gulf, and the Car. for storms..now we have to track run of the mill low pressures across the US? LOL
by the way, just for a moment this weekend let's all remember all those who came before us and gave their lives in all kinds of wars from noble to nasty, so that we can express ourselves as many of us do here daily.
ITCZ..my bad..please don't fine me.
"US" should be "U.S.". I say fine him anyway.
For those of you in the Tampa Bay Area check out my recent post regarding the 1848 Hurricane
hmmmm...tough crowd..what is next, contextual/sentence structure? Sheesh. LOL
Good to see you back lefty
gcain...try expressing yourself to more than a handful of people on a blog site. See how far you get.
gcain, amen brother
The first GFDL run for Invest91E has come out. Link

Also, here is the GFDL phase analysis/track.
Jeff Masters, can I use my ID and password to sign in from any computer to this comment section? I've had some problems from another computer, and i don't know if it's something wrong with me & the computer, or whether I'm blocked.

Thanks
83. WSI
You should be able to log in from any computer with internet access. Chances are its something wrong with the computer tigerbait.
STL, that doesn't show it becoming warm-core. When you see a storm move closer to warm core as it dissipates, it's usually just because the analysis algorithm has some problems with very weak systems.
Huh? What are you saying? If you look at the GFDL SLP (first link), which is just another way of looking at the model results (they are from the same model run after all), you can see that it makes the invest a strong tropical storm with a pressure of 994 mb and winds around 60 kts (the 75 kts shown it at 950 mb). It is definately warm-core from the analysis; it dissipates bacause it makes landfall; notice that it becomes deeper warm-core, then weakens. Believe me, I know how to read it.
I'd be suprised if we didn't see a depression before the Solstice (that IS how you spell it, right?)
Here is another thing: Open up both links, then go to frame #7 for the first (SPL and winds), then click on the phase diagram images (the full images show the dates); the deepest warm-core phase occurs at the same time as frame #7 (look at the dates). This is shortly before landfall.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE DISTURBED WEATHER... WHICH INCLUDES WINDS OF
25-35 MPH...IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER. WHILE UPPER-LEVELS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO... ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

EVEN IF A DEPRESSION DOES NOT FORM... HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...

EASTERN PACIFC
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262146
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION IS NOW ANALYZED AS A LOW PRES
1007 MB NEAR 14.5N101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM OVER SE SEMICIRCLE. CONVECTION
IS SUPPRESSED OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE DUE TO STRONG UPPER
SUBSIDENCE. THE LOW HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY N TODAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY N FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W N OF 2N HAS MOVED W 10 KT THE PAST 24
HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED
WITH 30 NM OF AXIS AT 5N. A MORE IMPRESSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION
CONTINUES WELL E OF THE WAVE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION FLARING OVER PANAMA AT THE MOMENT.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...8N83W 7N89W 14N100W 9N110W 9N121W
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF LINE 6N78W 5N88W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE
9N106W 8N115W AND WITHIN 15 NM OF 10N123W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS MOVING ONSHORE THE OREGON COAST WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
32N122W THROUGH ANOTHER CYCLONE ESTIMATED NEAR 25N116W TO A BASE
NEAR 10N116W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED N OF 21N W OF 120W AND
N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 100W AND S OF THE ITCZ ALONG 3N
FOR THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA. AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE
EXTENDS ALONG 32N138W TO 11N110W WITH BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 8N122W WITH ITS ENVELOPE
OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE
ITCZ TO 21N BETWEEN 140W AND 120W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION W OF 123W IS ADVECTED N BUT REMAINS WITHIN THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR
14N79W WITH BROAD RIDGE CRESTING ALONG POINTS 20N98W 27.5N81W
27.5N66W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN
102W AND 115W...AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES AT
14.5N101W...IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...ROUGHLY WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF POINTS 15.5N95.5W
22N85.5W 25N70W 23N55W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE RIDGE IS ALSO
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 75W BUT THE
DEBRIS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA.

$$
NELSON




that pacific disturbance has a great circulation but, disorganized convection. i believe it will bbe the first td though.





now what dos any one se her
i see a area of stong to severe storms for that blob of thunderstorms
hmmm whats dos any one think
94. Inyo
perhaps a mesoscale convective complex?

also it looks like the east pac season will be up and going soon. although this disturbance will probably hit land far before it could become a hurricane.


as for the subtropical jet stream.. will suppression of tropical systems by this feature, early on, lead to more hurricanes later because the heat is not released? or are thunderstorms still forming over the gulf?
Factcheck.org weighs in on CEI ads

http://www.factcheck.org/article395.html
synergymus...thanks so much for that post. Boy it is getting deep with these big oil concerns.

I thought the government should have seized control and sold off Exxon when the drunk ran the Exxon Valdez aground.
Here is another NOAA April 2006 Temperature Anomolies, zoomed in on the U.S.~ notice the difference in the base period (1971-2000) compared to the one Dr Masters posted (1961-1990)
the dark red mostly in TX & OK are off the color key...something else that could use the upper limit raised.
I bet the derivative curve of those stats would put the darkest areas at 30 degrees above normal by year 2030.
Tropical depression 01E forms
It certainly looks like a depression now; however, you can see that shear is blowing the convection to the northeast:



NHC
First Official TD Folks! =D
Are You ready?
yes but it does not seem it will become a tropical storm and if it does it will be a really weak one
I'm ready. I'm ready. I'm ready-eady-eady-eady-eady!


B
I'd say 50-50 on TD1-E becoming Aletta. It does look awfully good for something under 20kt of shear.
Hey, check it out - TD1's historical map has two Alettas on it ;)

Link
The most recent GFDL run (SLP+Winds / Cyclone Phase+Track) does not make it as strong as the previous run, which made it a strong tropical storm. However, 950 mb winds of 60 kts still means that it could become a tropical storm (although it indicates that it will be very short-lived). Note: Click on the phase diagrams to see the labled dates so that you can compare it to the SLP/winds (open both links at once).
Hey, TD1!

...

and now I'm out of town for the rest of the week with no computer access. so I can't watch it. darn.
i have updated my site in the east pacific section.

Link

if you have any questions or comments just post them on my blog.
o ya, the update is about td one-e
Aletta? Yes? No?
Aletta is almost here; the T# is 2.5 - which means a minimal tropical storm; it has risen by a full T# in 6 hours.

27/1145 UTC 15.0N 101.1W T2.5/2.5 01E -- East Pacific Ocean

Link
satellite imagery and surrounding ship observations indicate Tropical
Depression One-E has gradually become better organized during the
past 6 hours. A large burst of deep convection has persisted in the
eastern semicircle...and upper-level westerly shear has temporarily
weakened somewhat. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates os 30 kt and 35 kt from TAFB and
SAB...respectively. At 12z...ship h9uy located about 100 nmi
south-southwest of the center reported westerly winds of 21 kt and a
pressure of 1006.0 mb.

The broad center of the depression has been moving or reforming
slowly north or even north-northeastward at 4 kt closer to the
strong convection. The cyclone is currently embedded within the
subtropical ridge...and only a slow drift to the north or northeast
is forecast by most of the global models for the next 48 hours.
After that...weak ridging forecast to develop to the north of the
system across the Bay of Campeche and central Mexico is expected to
nudge the cyclone slowly westward. However...some of the models...
like NOGAPS and the ECMWF...move the storm into Mexico near Acapulco
in 48-72 hours before turning it slowly westward. The official
forecast track was nudged a little to the east of the previous
track...mainly due to the current weak westerly mid-level flow
expected to continue affecting the cyclone for the next 48 hours or
so. This is consistent with the GFS ensemble model and a blend of
the medium and deep BAM models.
The current moderate upper-level westerly shear is forecast to slowly
weaken to 5-10 kt by 36 hours. This should allow for at least some
gradual slow intensification...and the cyclone could easily become a
tropical storm later today. The official intensity forecast is a
blend of the SHIPS model output for a 30- and 35-kt tropical
cyclone. The SHIPS model brings the cyclone to near hurricane
strength by 96 hours
...and this is a distinct possibility if the
center remains far enough offshore the coast of Mexico.
Due to the uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecasts at
this time... the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm
watch from Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo Mexico.

Forecaster Stewart


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 27/1500z 15.1n 101.3w 30 kt
12hr VT 28/0000z 15.5n 101.2w 35 kt
24hr VT 28/1200z 16.0n 101.0w 40 kt
36hr VT 29/0000z 16.4n 100.9w 45 kt
48hr VT 29/1200z 16.7n 101.4w 45 kt
72hr VT 30/1200z 16.8n 101.9w 45 kt
96hr VT 31/1200z 16.8n 102.5w 45 kt
120hr VT 01/1200z 16.8n 103.0w 45 kt

Good morning Dr Master's blog and friends!

See the excitement is building along with all of the "debate"! LOL...

Sure hope we make it to June and don't have to worry about anything before then!

Have a great weekend everyone!

Gamma
115. IKE
"Due to the uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecasts at
this time... the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm
watch from Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo Mexico."....

Oh lord...if they evacuate, will they cross the border??? More illegals
IKE, that was completely unnecessary. Given last year, I wouldn't leave western Mexico for the US to avoid hurricanes ;)
IKE, that was great. Hopefully they meet our National Guard full force.
118. IKE
Calm down son.
Don't get me wrong - I am very much against illegal immigration. That does not mean, however, that it's open season for cheap shots at Mexico.
120. Inyo
oh great, here we go.

but maybe i was wrong about it not becoming a hurricane. If it recurves to the west what happens? I hope it moves northwest and then its remnants move into the southwestern US and cause rain but i really don't think that is likely.

(that's what i home for all e-pac storms to do)
Here is a Shortwave Infrared image of TD1E.

How can I have a "worry-free weekend" with the threat of a possable tropical storm in the E-Pacific.

My hope is that every tropical storm in the E-Pacific moves up and whats left of the mosture gets picked up by an area of high pressure and it spins it over my area. I know thats a fat chance but its happend before.
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 271745
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
1100 AM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006

...FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2006 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE MEXICAN RIVIERA...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATCH
AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM ALETTA HAS REDEVELOPED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR
LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...
170 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

ALETTA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION... ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED... IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

OUTER RAIN BANDS ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE SPREAD ONSHORE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...15.5 N...100.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 200 PM PDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$


Aletta is here!!!
we begin....
Aletta is a good example of how Epsilon was last year - I personally do not look at wind sheer maps.
...and so it begins...
Looks like it could be a long summer.
You have to look at wind shear maps, though shear affects storms less than in the past, which may be due to the increased size of present tropical systems.
so what ur sayin weatherwhatweather is that sheer a ffects storm less now than in the past because maybe of the size of present day storms....just to be sure.
130. WSI
"though shear affects storms less than in the past"

I don't think it affects them any different. It's our understanding of how shear affects them that is changing. A whole lot of variables play into how these storms behave. Shear is just one of them.
i second what wsi said. we change not weather. our understanding. good post wsi
Hmm...anyone got a map of those 200mb temps? I'd be curious to know...
Hi All. A point to remember abut the tropical seasons... The East PAC ALWAYS starts 2 weeks before the ATL season does.
This makes Aletta about right on schedule and doesn't reflect what is to come on the ATL side...
True enough, though Aletta looks to be unusually strong for this time of year. It only became a depression 9 hours ago and looks to be a 40-45kt storm.
Colby, hadn't realized Aletta was coming together that fast. Don't always pay that much attention to East PAC as we wind up spending SO much time with ATL...
Of course, with the tropical/subtropical jetstream and all, sometimes THAT particular tropical moisture funnels right over us. So it still affects us, global weather patterns at work.
if i'm right Adrian formed May 17 2005 and Arlene formed June 9 2005 so May 27th 2006 would blance with June 19th 2006, keeping in mind that wind sheer is forecast to be high for the first 2 weeks in June. Everything is blancing as should....thats what i think.
137. RL3AO
New discussion is out

WTPZ41 KNHC 272007
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
200 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006

BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE A
CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB USING A SHEAR PATTERN.
THUS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED TROPICAL STORM ALETTA. AN
IMPRESSIVE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN NOTED IN BOTH
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY MOST OF THE DAY...BUT MID-LEVEL SHEAR
UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS
RESULTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING EXPOSED JUST
WEST OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.

THE BROAD CENTER OF ALETTA HAS REFORMED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...
WHICH MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 040/03 KT SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS...HOWEVER... THAT ALETTA HAS MOVED NORTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS NOW...SO A GENERAL SLOW NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER
THAT...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED. THE
LONE EXCEPTION IS THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT
ALETTA WILL CROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY END UP DOING THAT...IT IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD MAKE IT OVER
THE RATHER FORMIDABLE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE. THE CONSENSUS OF
THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS... INCLUDING THE GFDL MODEL... CALLS FOR
ALETTA TO MOVE NEAR AND POSSIBLY JUST INLAND ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO BY 48 HOURS...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD BACK OVER WATER
AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TWO
TRACKS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.

WHILE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
MID-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT BY 36 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 10 KT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SLOW STRENGTHENING
TO OCCUR UP UNTIL ALETTA NEARS LAND IN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 24 HOURS...
AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEREAFTER WHEN ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
UNDERNEATH THE LARGE-SCALE 200 MB RIDGE AXIS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS AT
...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA MEXICO.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 15.6N 100.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 16.0N 100.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 16.3N 99.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 16.7N 100.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 16.9N 100.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 17.0N 101.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 31/1800Z 16.8N 102.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 01/1800Z 16.5N 103.5W 55 KT


$$
138. RL3AO
From the latest discussion

"THE
LONE EXCEPTION IS THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT
ALETTA WILL CROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE."

Thats scary.
139. RL3AO
Arent the sheer values in the gluf of mexico too high for development even if Alleta could some how stay together while crossing mexico?
the NHC is kind of uncertain...this morning they said it was highly unlikely that tropical depression would become tropical storm Atletta....now the depression jump from 30 to 40 in 8 hours....
Aletta*
143. RL3AO
"Arent the sheer values in the gluf of mexico too high for development even if Alleta could some how stay together while crossing mexico?"

It's more of the central Gulf of Mexico with high winds. IF it did cross, which I doubt, it may have time to form a depression in the Bay of Campeache. (sp)
Well, seems Aletta is right on schedule.

Seems like last year, we will have a busy year again this year. I don't think we will get into the greek alphabet again,but I wouldn't be suprised!

It is fun to track and watch these storms, but i feel sorry for people in the path of deadly storms sure to come. I want to wish all my friends on this board a safe and fun Hurricane season!
where can I find sheer maps for last year for the atlantic?
Wow, Its been Interesting living in the FL Panhandle. I'm only 16, and I've lived through more storms than most people want to in a lifetime. haha... Bring Em On.
147. Inyo
doesnt an active e-pac usually mean a less active atlantic?
Shear is still relatively strong in the Gulf, but the low covers a wide area. One aspect of the discussion is almost beyond comprehension, the notion that the storm may cross over the Sierra Madre mountains and reform in the Bay of Campeche. If it could do that, it may not be too disturbed by adverse shear environment.
Weather, google for

850mb shear GOES

It's the first link. I would post it, but this hotel computer sucks ;(. Aletta looks excellent, once the shear relaxes I'd say 60% chance of Hurricane Aletta.
well tighten those belts this is going to be a ride this summer
but the way you got your storm ST but its not near the gulf coast
Inyo..... overall the Eastern Pacifc is more active than the atlantic but for 2003, 2004, 2005 and predicted in 2006 we have been more active...for example:

2004
atlantic- 15 named storms 3 major
EP- 12 named storms 6 major

Atlantic 1st storm - Alex August 1
EP 1st storm - Agatha May 22

2005
Atlantic 28 named storms 7 major
EP- 16 named storms 2 major

Atlantic 1st storm was 9th June Arlene
Eastern pacifci first storm was May 17 Adrian

see a pattern.....

Inyo
doesnt an active e-pac usually mean a less active atlantic?

Thats what I have always thought as well. I thought that if one ocean has above average the other will have average or below average activity.
Take a look at the last few frames of the water vapor imagery. Aletta is beginning to pull moisture 1000 miles from the low center. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
i have updated my site to include all new information on newly formed tropical storm aletta. leave questions or comments on my blog.
here is my site:Link
Aletta looks excellent now, once the shear relaxes we'll see the LLC line up under the mid-upper level centers and Aletta should just bomb.
I wonder if the East Pacific will have any of the craziness that has occurred in other oceans (I don't think that any of last year's East Pacific storms intensified at a crazy rate or anything like that)?
158. Alec
Aletta is sitting over very warm waters....so fuel wont be running out anytime soon...
159. WSI
I am behind. Last I heard, that system wasn't even going to develop.

My site has the front page somewhat complete now. Links are at 254 and increasing.
CIMSS has Aletta at 33 kts.

Oh, remember that the estimates on the SSD page will be replaced with the CIMSS estimates starting an June 1 (it had a message at the bottom a while ago). I think that this means that they think that the CIMSS estimates are accurate enough to be used instead; also, estimates will be sent out every hour instead of a few times a day.
161. Alec
Does anyone know how to get the archived wunderground SST maps?
Colby..do you think it'd going to enter the Gulf? Shear relaxes there is 2-3 days as well.
Colby..do you think it will enter the Gulf? Shear relaxes there in 2-3 days as well.
i know that wind shears tears away the tops of a storm...but couldnt it aid in development to a certain extent by atleast blowing the cooler risen air away from the center in one direction? This would be since their isnt an upper level high above it to the job neatly.

seems to me that aslong as the shear isnt too high it could let the storm develop to a certain point. And as long as the shear doesnt get to low into the storms clouds.
The higher clouds billow into the atmosphere, the colder the upper cloud areas become, which creates a greater differential of cold and hot air. When clouds are sheared off at the upper levels by winds, it stifles their strength. There are other variables as well.
If the storm has lower cloud tops, then it might help to create outflow.

I think this is what happened with Epsilon last year.
THE FIRST STORM OF THE SEASON IS LOOKING LIKE A TOUGH ONE TO
FORECAST. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES DEPICTED A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING WESTWARD...AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.
SSM/I AND AMSR-E IMAGES ALSO SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED TO
THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. UNLESS A NEW CENTER DEVELOPS FARTHER TO
THE EAST... ALETTA MAY NOT LAST VERY LONG. GIVEN THAT THE CENTER
HAS REFORMED NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION AT LEAST TWICE ALREADY IN THIS
SYSTEM...IT MIGHT NOT BE UNREASONABLE TO EXPECT YET ANOTHER
REFORMATION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45
KT. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. IN SPITE OF
THE CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED STATE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER- TROPOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT OF WEAKER SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME
INTENSIFICATION...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THIS IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECASTER PASCH
I had a global warming thought: forget greenhouse gases, how much actual heat are we putting out? When we use energy, it's not gone, it's just converted into heat...hmmmm...

Aletta is struggling under 20kt of shear, but that should start falling soon and give her a chance to intensify.
The GFDL continues to show Aletta making landfall in Mexico, even as the NHC turns her away from the coast.

Also, the GFS shows another storm forming to the south of Aletta in a few days, and it appears to be a lot stronger (you can also see it near the end of the GFDL animation above).

SLP Animation

Cyclone Phase/Track/SST
2:00am
IT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
MIGRATING SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH THE CONVECTION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE CONVECTION HAS JUST SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AS AN EASTWARD MOVING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER...THE INITIAL MOTION WILL REMAIN STATIONARY.
NONE OF THE NHC MODELS ARE INDICATING LANDFALL ANY LONGER. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE BAM MODELS...THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE CENTER WELL OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST AND EITHER KEEP IT
STATIONARY OR DRIFT IT SOUTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THEN
TAKE IT WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWARD AFTER THAT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ONLY SLOWER. IF THE SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY DOES NOT DEVELOP LATER
TODAY...THEN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCHES FOR THE MEXICAN
COAST WILL NEED TO BE DISCONTINUED.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
FORECAST TO PASS NORTHEAST OF ALETTA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AROUND MORE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...RELAXING THE SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN HINDERING DEVELOPMENT.
THE SHIPS MODEL DECREASES THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY
48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO
OCCUR DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING ALETTA.

FORECASTER STEWART

it was mentioned in the previos discussion that the GFDL "lost track of Aletta as it made landfall" but not in the pressure forecast area, so they were throwing it out for now in forecasting this one. That wave to the south looked to be showing some potental. Generally the GFDL does terrible when it is dealing with 2 tropical entities in the same area.
TO ForecasterColby
Good point.
Also when we build (roads, buildings, etc) we change the albedo of the earth. Just think about all the black top just in the US. How much heat does that absorb?
fredwx~ great point, I think one of the weakest arguments against global warming is that the air temp measurement are scewd because of heat caused by the city surronding the airport that once was rural. The measurements are not contaminated, cause the city is around it now, that's the reflection of the affects of albedo & the new higher air temp average. Reroof with light colored materials!
Don't forget that (corrected) satellite measurements show global warming (see this blog a while back by Masters) and that they are obviously not influened by the heat island effect.
To Skyepony
I suspect that global warming is a combination of both man-made and natural causes.
I posted my thoughts on this back in February:
I had considered the albedo bit before. While it probably has some effect, I don't think there's THAT much blacktop on Earth.
Perhaps, but just take a walk on a blacktop road in Florida at 2PM on a sunny June day!

Look also at the daily early moring minimum temperatures for most any major city and you will almost always see cooler temperatures in almost every direction. I don't think the urban heat island effect is insignificant.
anybody have a link for a picture of cross-section of hurricane that shows altitude, approx. pressure levels (i.e. 850mb through 100mb)?
if it shows the high aloft it would be an added bonus.. i can't find anything like this on the internet
Bama, such information is generally not available unless recon flights are being run. I don't know of any graphic of it, but you can check the dropsonde reports on the NHC page.
Fred, I take walks on Florida blacktop every day :)
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W FROM 2N TO 11N MOVE W 10 KT WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF AXIS.
BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS SEVERAL WEAK SWIRLS
ROAMING WITH NO APPARENT ORGANIZATION. UPPER ENVIRONMENT STILL
REMAINS NOT CONDUCIVE TO INTENSIFICATION BUT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD.

Next storm please enter....
I bet that wave will develop into the storm that the GFS shows (see my post earlier).
Colby..you do NOT walk barefoot on Florida black asphalt barefoot, in any temp above 80 degrees when the Sun is shining.
However, you may walk on gray concrete when the Sun is shining in 100 degrees.
184. WSI
I just walked barefoot on the driveway to adjust the lawn sprinkler. White concrete, close to 86 degrees. I didn't stand on it for long, LOL!
He did not say that he does it barefoot (I know that doing so is impossible).

By the way, remember Masters' blog on the Loop Current? Well, it appears that a new eddy is going to break off soon. Link
186. WSI
Yeah it does Michael.
Just trying to illustrate the difference between heat absorption and heat reflexion with regard to the spectrum.
Would you be just as comfortable sitting in a car with the windows down on a 5 acre Wal-Mart black asphalt parking lot as a concrete one? No, but you'd probably just roll up the windows, crank the car and pollute the environment to stay cool, and not worry whether it was asphalt or concrete. Time you did.
Who said u couldn't walk barefoot on blacktop in the tropics?

People in the Caribbean do it all the time.

But not for very long periods of time . . .

I Walked about a half mile barefoot on blacktop ... Around The Tenth of this month... I'm still healing from where it blistered. Stupid Me. lol.
if you take a look at the west atlantic water vapor satellite, look due east of Florida at what appear to be something trying to form out there. What do you think of this possible system and is the environment favorable for development?
I think that's an area of convection which slipped off the east coast, and has drifted into a low shear environment.
The callus on Bahamian feet is about a half inch thick (slight exaggeration, but close enough).
Caribbean feet as well.
System off of Florida? Sounds familiar... I have been hearing about something off the East Coast (possibly even hitting South Carolina) for a week; the NOGAPS has a low off the coast, although it does not become warm-core.
Looks like parts of Florida are getting some much needed 'liquid sunshine'.
looking at the e pac system it almost looks like there are 2 circulation? what do you all think?
Are you referring to the convection around Panama?
By the way, have you seen the latest discussion on Aletta? It seems to suggest thst Aletta does not have a closed circulation:

THE SURFACE CENTER OF ALETTA IS OBSCURED AND THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY
RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES OVER THE CYCLONE. THE CURRENT LOCATION AND
MOTION ARE THEREFORE SUBJECT TO SOME SPECULATION. WHAT LOW CLOUD
LINES THAT ARE VISIBLE ARE ELONGATED AND SUGGESTIVE OF A NORTHEAST/
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS...RATHER THAN A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE HAS BEEN AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...ALTHOUGH
THE DATA T NUMBERS SUGGEST THIS ESTIMATE MIGHT BE A LITTLE HIGH.
OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT LESS SO
THAN EARLIER TODAY.
yes parts of florida are getting slammed, multiple reports of hail and possible tornado's in northeast florida. In South East Florida we had 2 inch hail in some parts while other parts had 3 reports of tornado's that had touched down in the everglades. Right now its sunny, humid and hot.
Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central
America...the Gulf of Mexico...the Caribbean Sea...northeastern
sections of South America...and the Atlantic Ocean to the
African coast from the Equator to 32n. The following information
is based on satellite imagery...weather observations...radar...
and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.
...Tropical waves...
a tropical wave is along 64/65w south of 10n moving west 10 kt
across Venezuela. A cluster of scattered moderate to strong
convection is just ahead of the wave axis from 7n-10n between
65w-70w. Similar convection is also found across the NE portion
of Venezuela and the adjacent coastal waters.
...The ITCZ...
ITCZ axis is centered along 7n12w 5n30w 2n40w 2n51w. Widely
scattered moderate showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are
within around 120 nm north of the axis between 34w-39w. Similar
convection is also observed within 20-30 nm on either side of
the axis west of 45w. Isolated moderate showers and possible
thunderstorms are elsewhere.

...Discussion...
the Gulf of Mexico...
an upper ridge dominates the Gulf of Mexico from an upper high
located over south Mexico and Guatemala. Upper level moisture is
spreading over the area west of 90w...including the Bay of
Campeche while moderate to strong subsidence covers the
remainder of the Gulf and the State of Florida. As of 1500
UTC...a 1020 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf near 29n85w.
10-15 kt E/se winds blow across the Gulf except across the NE
portion of the area where light and variable winds are found
thanks to the presence of the high. An area of heavy showers and
strong tstms is moving toward the Gulf cost of Texas from
27n-29n associated with a squall line. Scattered showers are
over the north-central Gulf and over the Bay of Campeche. High
pressure ridge will remain over the northern Gulf trough
Thursday.

The Caribbean Sea...
broad mid/upper ridge continues to dominate the basin
suppressing the convective activity across the area...
particularly over the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to strong
subsidence is seen east of 80w...with the driest air from
11n-14n...including the ABC Islands. A surface trough over the
eastern Bahamas is producing scattered showers over eastern Cuba
and Hispaniola. Numerous strong showers and tstms are still
affecting the southwestern Caribbean Sea and parts of Panama and
Costa Rica. It is possible that this precipitation is related to
the epac ITCZ. A 1008 mb surface low is also over the SW
Caribbean Sea. Moderate trade winds dominates the basin. The
Atlantic ridge is forecast to weaken late today through Tue with
trades decreasing over the southern Caribbean.
The Atlantic Ocean...
the deep layer trough continues in the central Atlantic
Ocean...supporting the surface cold front which enters the area
near 31n37w then continues SW to 24n-48w. A surface trough
extends wwd from this point to 23n64w. An area of scattered to
isolated strong convection from 21.5-24.5 between 55w-65w is
related to the trough. Another surface trough lies along 72/73w
producing scattered showers over the Easter Bahamas/Cuba and
Hispaniola. Widely scattered moderate showers and isolated
thunderstorms are across the W Atlc just N of 29n west of 70w
ahead of a cold front. A weak ridge-trough-ridge pattern in the
middle to upper levels of the atmosphere covers the Atlantic
waters from 20n to 30n between 50w and 80w. Broad and large
scale middle to upper level low is centered near 33n16w with a
trough extending SW to the Cape Verde Islands. A middle to upper
level ridge has developed over western Africa. At the surface...
a ridge extends from a 1031 mb high located NE of the Azores
along the E Atlc...where mostly fair weather prevails.
$$
Gr
202. SMU88
Looking at the GFS models it looks like the Sub Tropical Jet Stream that is over the Caribbean is finally breaking off. Looks like another week or so and the high shear will caused by the Sub Tropical Jet Stream will be dissipating.
This is more in relation to the global warming posts of the last few days.

"No more than a dozen of the 140 new coal-fired power plants planned in the United States..."

It looks like we'll be using a lot more coal in the future!

Link
Err, try this link to view the article if your not registered.

Link
That wave around 5N 90W in the East Pacific has a lot of spin for something that far South ...
The GFDL now shows Aletta going to the west without making landfall.

Also, the GFS continues to show another, much stronger storm for to the south.

SLP Animation - notice that you can hardly see where Aletta is, while the new system is very well defined.

Cyclone Phase/Track/SST
207. OGal
HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY DR. MASTERS TO YOU AND YOUR FAMILY. GO HAVE FUN! THINGS WE GET HECTIC SOON!
208. OGal
WE-WILL
HOLD BACK THE GLACIERS! BURN MORE COAL!
MichaelSTL wrote:

"Also, the GFS continues to show another, much stronger storm to the south."

Hurricane Bud, anyone???
Good Morning all and happy Memorial day.

StormJunkie.com has undergone some much needed upgrades. It should be easier to navigate and much more browser friendly. It may be a littler slow on dial up, but I would love to have some feedback on that. We will continue to add content and upgrade the site so please check back.

Thanks ya'll
SJ

Happy Memorial Day to you, StormJunkie...cool site!
Thanks Tampa. We should be getting some more video up on the site today.

SJ
The low due east of GA/FL is looking very interesting this morning as convection streaming up from the Caribbean seems to be trying to wrap around its dry center. If it drifts any farther west, it'll be over the GulfStream and things could get interesting as the shear dies down.
215. Alec
looks quite frail right now...
I agree Alec it does not look like much of anything right now and it does not look like the shear will let up enough in any of the area this nothing may be in.

SJ
217. Alec
Hello SJ, I dont believe anything looks quite good or will be decent enough for a while...
218. Alec
in the Atlantic I mean....lol
That is a good thing alec for many reasons. Not to mention I don't have time to follow a storm as I am spending it all working on the site.

SJ
Hi ya'll. Gratuitious self-advertising here. New pics of North Florida storms last night. My blog, come take a peek.
Alec, have you noticed how much the Gulf temps have started coming up in the past week? Really started taking notice since I posted that Gulf map in my blog.

SJ
Those were some pretty big winds ya'll had aquak.

Nice pics

SJ
Steve, I'd say that looks quite good to become Hurricane Bud, especially if Aletta meets an early demise.

The system off the east coast actually looks quite interesting, and it's detaching from the front that spawned it. If it acts like Epsilon/Zeta, the conditions are good enough - it's worth watching, at least.

And then there's the GOM blob - a huge area of convection covering most of the EGOM. I might start giving consistant blobs a designation (i.e., Blob-01L), just for ease of reference. Shear is too high at the moment, but if it can stay together 36-48hrs more we might see something.

And one more GW thought - remember the Siberian permafrost everyone was all worked up over? Anomalies are -4C over most of that area.
Do you mean the western Gulf? Link
Michael, is that a low pressure trying to develop in the western gulf?
The GFS does have a cyclone in the Bay of Campeche; however, it doesn't do anything and it dissipates over Mexico.
Also, the latest GFS run shows the East Pacific storm that may develop in a few days to be even stronger now. Link (note that while it shows the pressure as being around 990 mb, only the GFDL model accurately shows the minimum pressure; even a Category 5 may show up with a pressure of 990 mb or more on these diagrams).

Here is the latest GFDL run for Aletta and the cyclone phase/track/SST. I noticed that it does not even form a cyclone for 24 hours; earlier the NHC even said that Aletta may be a trough instead of having a closed circulation (see my post at 5:52 pm CDT).
Do you mean the western Gulf? Link


I belive he means the one to the east of FL
Colby said that it was in the Gulf. Furthermore this map indicates that there is a small chance of development (where Aletta developed, it had a 2-3% chance of formation).
While the East Coast strom has a weak signature on visible and IR, the Link water vapor loop shows a different story.
231. Alec
Looks like a cool stream of water is making a comeback in the Eastern Pacific just South of the recent 30+ SST region! link
Happy memorial day to all of the American bloogers here. May you all have a very enjoyable and peaceful day with your families.
Today there seems to be a good deal of wind towards the west in Florida at several layers; reminiscent of a tropical system. I know there is a high nearby but the area of cloudiness off Mexico looks ominous. There is a existing cyclone in that area too. The sheer seems to have rapidly diminished.
234. Inyo
I dont see any La Nina or El Nino

Yep, ENSO has gone neutral, like last season. The west side of the gulf should have some high shear kicking for days & it's already lossing convection from this morning. Looked neat lastnight like it was sucking energy from Aletta. East of fl looks to be trying desteratly to wrap around, shear is dropping a little in the area (& staying high over SE U.S., but i don't give it much a chance if any, just interesting.
i am not feeling well to day and i am under the weather as well so when i get done with my showrs i am going to get some sleep so i may not be back on today when i get done with my shower that i need to do so this is my last post for today


sorry all if i am not a around a lot today to post i am off for the day see you when i get well and sorry for all of that
Rain all day in sw louisiana. Soaked and loving it. It's about time.
238. cjnew
Earlier today, I was watching CNN I think? anyways...

Joe Bastardi was on their saying how he feared for the north east U.S.
He had a 'nifty' little map highlighting areas as. low, med, high, very high. for hurricane landfall risk.
the only "LOW" area was the NE GOM, The "HIGH" areas were texas, south Fla.,and alot of the eastern sea board. then he had New York City (and surrounding areas) Higlithed as "VERY HIGH" and also N. carolina....

The rest of the spaces were filled with "med"
hehe... What a fricken joke. Hes only doing that crap to scare people into registering for accuweather.
Actually, other forecasts put the East Coast under a very high risk as well; look at this. You can't get much higher than 90%...

On the other hand, they also say that the Gulf has a high risk for major hurricanes as well, and through 2010 (another forecaster places New Orleans as the highest risk area).

Of couse, the NOAA outlook says that it is not possible to forecast risk areas at this time.
I would definately agree with NOAA! Listen to the people with some REAL knowledge!..LOL
242. Alec
In general the Central Gulf coasts are usually high risk areas because as hurricanes get on the SW periphery of the Bermuda High once in the Gulf they tend to curve northwest and even north(assuming the high isn't spread out as an extended ridge over the northern Gulf and FL)
243. RL3AO
When a hurricane does finally ride up the coast again, Joe Bastardi will act like the smartest guy on earth. Hey Joe, even a broken clock is right twice a day!
244. Alec
Even the NOAA says in their 2006 hurricane season prediction that it is extremely hard and virtually impossible to localize where they think hurricanes may make landfall this season this far out.......
There is a new invest in the Indian Ocean.

Look to Univ of Colorado for Dr. Wm Gray et al. He has been the lead guy for around 20 yrs. and generally it pretty acurate. It seems all other "forecasts" are spin offs from Gray. Go to the source guys, you'll learn more.
It looks like Aletta may be dead:

248. IKE
"This will be the last public advisory on Aletta issued by the
National Hurricane Center."....

Why??
249. IKE
Looking at that satellite....forget what I just asked. She's a goner.
Ummm... Look at the satellite image of Aletta, I don't think that it can possibly still be a tropical storm.
It's ok. Hurricane Bud shouldn't be too far away. I want to see a sub-900 mb hurricane in the EPAC this year (as long as it doesn't hit land). The strongest EPAC hurricane ever was Hurricane Linda of 1997, with a minimum central pressure of 902 mb, and winds of 185 mph.
Hurricane Bud will likely form in a few days or so; the GFS continues to show a strong system developing to the south of where Aletta is (on the SLP animation, you can't really even see where Aletta is).

SLP Animation

Cyclone Phase/Track/SST
This is from an older run (12Z instead of 18Z) because it has not been updated yet.
you can't really even see where Aletta is

I think you mean "was". The final advisory is only issued to tell you that the storm is dead.
It was the final *public* advisory - in the pacific they are only issued when land is theatened. I agree that Aletta is dead now, but she wasn't at the advisory time.
Anyone have any insights on the cyclone east of GA/FL? The circulation shows up much tighter on the water vapor loop than it did earlier today.
Savannah,

It looks like its moving south so it wouldn't affect the U.S. Also there is too much dry air on the western side, and even if it could overcome that, it would run into the higher shear in northern Cuba and be recurved out to sea and torn apart. That's what I see anyway...thoughts anyone?
The odds aren't great...but it is looking very subtropical at the moment. Worth watching.
Any thoughts on this mess off the Texas coast? It sure seems to be just sitting there. We had some serious rains (13" in places) from this system earlier today before it moved off over the Gulf. The local weather guesser hinted on the 10 o'clock news that "something could be happening out there".
260. WSI
"Any thoughts on this mess off the Texas coast?"

Well, I am no professional, but here is what I see. There is really no low level circulation with the system at all. In fact, even the upper level winds look disorganized. The shear in the area is still pretty hostile. Also, none of the models that I can see have picked up on anything down there.

None of this is to say it won't do something later on.

Now it's late, so if I missed something someone kick me in the tail, LOL!
There's no low yet. However, there's a very high amount of instability in the air, so one might form.
I've been watching the weather on the Tx coast for years and this seems like a weird set-up. Most large rain systems have some sort of movement passing through. This one is just hanging out with no real direction.
Yes, there is some circulation to that thing off Texas. Water is hot, and there isn't much shear. By mid-day it may be interesting.
I thought this seemed fitting...

May 29, 2006, 10:37PM
Study finds global warming may worsen poison ivy

Associated Press

WASHINGTON - Another reason to worry about global warming: more and itchier poison ivy.

The noxious vine grows faster and bigger as carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere rise, researchers reported on Monday.

And a carbon dioxide-driven vine produces more of its rash-causing chemical, urushiol, concluded experiments conducted in a forest at Duke University where scientists increased carbon dioxide levels to those expected in 2050.

(Continue Article)

Haha, I didn't know Duke University had a forest? I wish Missouri State University had a forest. Our mascot is the Bear, you know. I bet you Blue Devils don't live in the forest.
265. WSI
They mention the system in the western gulf in the tropical discussion, but that is about it. They just mentioned it, and didn't really say much about it. Shear unfavorable in the area as well. franck, where are you getting your shear information? I still show the shear to be high there.
266. WSI
Here is the current shear in the Gulf. As of 5/30, there is too much shear for favorable tropical development.
It looks like Aletta may be doing an Epsilon or Zeta (refusing to die):

Yeah, they say in the discussion on Aletta that they expect her to die off to a remnant low, so if she doesn't, then we'll know that we're still in the "all bets are off" mode when it comes to predicting tropical systems this year.
TOL MichaelSTL
RE Hurricane Risk
I think that predictions of 90% risk is misleading and counterproductive. If you look at Dr. Gray and company's outlook: United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project there is only a 40% of at least a tropical storm for the same region. I don't know why the big difference but I would doubt the 90% risk claim.

Note: Dr. Gray's outlook is scheduled to be updated on Wednesday.

Sorry, Here is the correct link for the United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project
I give up - the WUBA system is changing the link so I will just post it here directly

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html
The WRC bases their outlooks on the solar cycle (they say that sunspots and the sun's orbit influences global weather patterns on Earth). Also, they do not really forecast the number (they say 11 storms and 5 hurricanes, but that is just the average number that has occurred in similar years in the past).

Link
I tend to agree that the solar cycle does influence the earth's weather and there is evidence that the global temperature is related to the length of that cycle and number of sunspots.
See Solar Link


I still think that the 90% hit risk is much to high.
Yeah, looks like Aletta has come back from the grave. Not that it's going to do much now that it's back ... but neat anyway.
Sounds like good news so far. Hopefully these winds will continue and make this year better than the last 3.
a href="Florida Keys Fishing" target="_blank">Link
So...how is AlettEpsilon doing? :)