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High tide in New York brings flooding

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:14 AM GMT on April 16, 2007

Winds from the 2007 Nor'easter have pushed a two foot storm surge on top of an unusually high "Spring Tide" into the New York City area at the time of this evening's 7:30pm EDT high tide,(Figure 1). Battering waves on top of the storm surge have undoubtedly caused significant coastal erosion, and possibly damage to some structures along the coast. It could have been worse for New York City, as the peak storm surge of 2.5 feet occurred during the afternoon before high tide. Sustained winds of tropical storm force have been observed most of the day south of Long Island at Ambrose Light, and in Long Island Sound. The situation is worse along the western shores of Long Island Sound, where strong winds have already generated a 3-foot storm surge, which was still increasing in height as of 7:30pm EDT. High tide at King's Point is not until 9:30pm EDT tonight; Long Island Sound may see a destructive 4-foot storm surge at that time (Figure 2).

The Nor'easter is moving slower that expected, and is still centered over North Carolina at 7pm EDT. Central pressure continues to fall rapidly, and is down to 981 mb. The storm is expected to continue to intensify down to 973 mb, and track NNE up the New Jersey coast and over New York City. By 8am EDT Monday, the storm will peak in intensity over Connecticut and stall.


Figure 1. Tidal levels observed at The Battery in New York City as of 7:30pm EDT Sunday April 15. Note that water levels peaked at 2.5 feet above normal during the afternoon, but fell to 2 feet above normal at the time of high tide.

The storm surge from today's storm will rival some of the largest ones ever observed in New York, such as during the "Perfect Storm" of October 31, 1991, and the March 13, 1993 Storm of the Century. The worst coastal flooding in recent years in New York City occurred during the December 11-12 1992 Nor'easter, which damaged as many as 20,000 homes and forced almost 2,000 people to take refuge in emergency storm shelters. Storm surges of 4 feet were recorded near New York City, and 5.5 feet in western Long Island Sound. It is possible that the flooding levels seen in the December 1992 Nor'easter will be exceeded in western Long Island Sound tonight.


Figure 2. Tidal levels observed at King's Point in western Long Island Sound on April 15, 2007.

There is too much other remarkable weather to cover in detail. The entire Northeast coast will see an extended period of storm surge flooding, battering waves, and high winds that will likely cause hundreds of millions of dollars in damage. Heavy rains of over four inches have already fallen at New York's Central Park, a tornado from the storm has caused extensive damage in South Carolina that killed one person, and near blizzard conditions are affecting some mountainous regions of New England.

Mount Washington weather
It's a night to hunker down and stay inside at the Mount Washington observatory in New Hampshire. Winds at 8pm EDT were sustained at 70 mph, gusting to 77, and steadily rising. Keep an eye on the history page for Mount Washington to follow the remarkable weather conditions there.

I'll edit this blog tonight to update the water levels and winds, and have a full new blog Monday morning, and there will also be a separate update on the East Coast Winter Storm blog.

Jeff Masters
Fire Flood Rescue
Fire Flood Rescue
North Eastern Floods New Jersey with heavy rains and wind. Rain totaling up to 5 inche. Here is a photo of a fire rescue in Lodi New Jersey on Main st and Union ave.
Sellersville, PA NorEaster
Sellersville, PA NorEaster
Spring deluge - around 1 p.m. - water still rising - roads are being closed - and many more hours of rain to come!

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr.M!
The pressure is down to 29.15 and falling in Newark DE
Thank you for the update DR. Masters! I am truely concerned about this situation. Please keep us informed.
Its the wind driven storm surge water..that brings the misery. Thanks for the update on the Storm.
Thanks for the update. Wow, what a storm...

Anyone can check out my blog for observations in word, pics and vids if you wish.
Thanks Dr. M.
I have also had the same observance as has Dr. Masters about the storm slowing down. I think this storm could reach a central pressure below 970mb maybe maxing out at what the WRF model had of 965mb, but I think this can go lower if it reaches the water, which at the present time is not forecasted to do. This thing will develop an eye like feature and it is then when the storm will reach its peak in intensity and a significant area will receive hurricane force winds and a big coastal storm surge and flooding on the north Shore of Boston, MA will be unbelievable this time of year and power outages will be common when all is said and done with this storm, I also believe the storm will dump more than two feet in some areas of snow.
Pressure now at 1004mb and 29.64in here on Cape Cod and gusts are reaching 30 to 35mph.
I'm just curious, what's 28.06in in millibars in terms of air pressure?
In Hayes Virginia it was just 28.90, hurricane strength I believe!
That's 950.22mb CapeWeather06.
950 hPa
That is a very strong nor'easter. I believe that is what one of the models have this storm at, if I read it correctly, but I think that is way too strong, or it was my imagination, though not impossible, but anyways, if you look at the radar image for New York City here on wunderground, there are very heavy rains that are coming towards us here on Cape Cod, MA from out to our southwest, I believe that is the beginning of our storm's strongest winds, but that doesn't sound right because its still in North Carolina so I don't know what to believe. Someone please clear this up for me, if you can.
NEW YORK (AP) -- A powerful nor'easter pounded the East with wind and pouring rain Sunday, grounding airlines and threatening to create some of the worst coastal flooding some areas had seen in more than a decade.

End of the World
I'm 100% sure this storm won't deepen to 950mb cause that's extremely bad and I don't think there was ever a nor'easter that strong (just guessing). In my opinion this one will get between 965-970mb.
Cape Weather, it's somewhat complicated, but the strongest pressure gradient is currently along the warm front in the NYC area. That's where the main convergence of air masses is. Even as the low center moves north, the highest winds will generally stay over the same areas.
NDBC Buoys New York coastal area..Link
Hello everyone..check out my updated blog if you want!!
Getting 1 inch/hour rates of heavy wet snow here...

My blog for more details.
Oh wow!! I used to drive down that street growing up in New Jersey(Lodi Pic) and its still flooding!!..LOL
Gusts to tropical storm force winds, or just under at 38 to 40mph here on Cape Cod and the rain is coming down heavily.
Why is no one posting, the storm is intensifying and we are getting gusts up to 40mph with the strongest after 10pm and heavy rain will continue for us all night long, although its very hard for us to flood because of the sand underneath.
In Central NJ ... Thunderstorms heavy rain ... 3.35 inches rain thus far ... wind pretty much below 25kts ... 49 degrees ... pressure 29.07 falling rapidly. Flooding everywhere.
Capeweather06,

Slow posting rate = sunday night and many of us down "south" are cleaining up :) Lost a tree here in my backyard...take 100 match sticks, slowly break them at once and then snap a 2x4 ("pop")...about the sound it made. Had me running for cover...the bird feeder I was trying to get down is now toast. Winds north of ATL came in from the west then shifted around to the north.

Be safe up there. I'll be shopping for a chainsaw tomorrow on my lunch break :)
27. cdo
Link

can this be right? It has smashed the record by doubling...this is not even in the NE....there has got to be a reporting problem here, nowhere else are any of then near flood stage.
To SteveDa1-- 965-970mb is stronger than "The Perfect Storm" which was 972 at it's peak. That's the one they made a movie about ...LOL

We are in Coastal RI-- heavy rain/tropical storm-force winds right now.
29.05 now ... falling very rapidly ... central NJ
29.01 (928.41 mb)and falling rapidly at 9:38 pm - Freehold, NJ
31. cdo
somebody go out with their row boat so another movie can be made......
ih8bills -- Some models say below 965mb and it's possible with this storm.

I got 2 inches of snow here in 80 minutes... more details and pictures on my blog.
Station 44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.00 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.11 in ( Falling Rapidly )
folks, could we please post pressures in mb like we do in hurricane season?
To convert inches to mb,multiply by 33.89. It's not algebra.Quit whining.The buoys post their pressures in inches.
36. MZT
And the men post it in millibars! Hahahah. Ok someone had to. >:-)
hey snowboy .. y not make yourself useful and you could convert for everyone. otherwise .. just let us post and figure it out on your own.
An observation in cape may, NJ is now down to 981.79 MB and falling fast.
Take a breather. Wish SouthernLady a happy birthday and thank her for her dedicated work on the blogs tracking this system for the past several days.
40. V26R
Actually if you use the NDBC site you can pick if you want Metric or English standards

Pressure right now is 986mb or 29.16 inches and falling still with a Decent Thunder Storm
in extreme southern Staten Island, NY
Still pressure only at 1004mb and steady or decreasing with heavy rain and gusts to 38mph, but that has been happening for about forty minutes already.
29.02 and falling rapidly ... or 983mb for snowboy
Here's a great page for converting inches to mb, vise versa & kts/MPH
I can convert them easily here.

Everything you need to convert is there... it's great.
Whining?!!! kris, you're lucky you're out of reach or I'd tan your hide. LOLOLOL.

The rest of the world made the eminently practical and sensible switch to metric ages ago, but not you stubborn Americans. Ha ha ha! Oh no, better to waste endless time dealing with impractical units than to require the population to stretch their minds and move forward.. Suit yourselves.

I just noted that about half the pressure posted in here were in mb, and half in inches, which seems silly cause then everyone tuning in here gets to do those lovely conversions themselves with every new post.
It appears the center may be near Atlantic City now, 10 pm observation 28.98" and calm wind. Some pressures in New Jersey down to 28.95"
982mb ... 29.00inches ... still falling .. central NJ
980.3mb in Wildwood, NJ and 980.7mb in Atlantic City... those are the lowest readings for the state. I think the center is very close to Wildwood if not over the southernmost part of NJ.
Ocean water level hit the lowest since 1993 here (the superstorm caused strong west winds which drove out the water much like this one here. Water level departure -3.58 feet
LOL....if you want my vote, I'm for millibars all the way! Snowboy's right metric is the way to go, with the exception of the Celsius scale. I'm not quite ready to drop farenhite lol.
Amazingly, our bouy 30 miles off the coast is reporting 9 feet seas with the wind from the west and the wave direction from the west!
If so, we can report winds in kph/hr and rainfall in millimeters ;-)
snowboy ... no need for the anti-american rant. the subject we're discussing is an event taking place in America. The observation and mesurement in inches REFLECT THAT. i'm sure you can understand that. if not ... just deal with it.
edo... that river gauge *better* be wrong, or I fear there's going to be people who will not make it.

It seems totally impossible, though, so I wouldn't worry too much.

CURRENT CONDITIONS: Albany, NY
Rain Fog/Mist and 34 F (1 C)
Wind: From the North at 16 MPH
Dewpoint: 33 F (1 C)
Pressure: 29.46" (997.7 mb) and falling...

Jo
Just saw an observation out of Linwood, NJ near Atlantic City with a pressure of 979.08.
56. H2PV

Posted By: snowboy at 2:11 AM GMT on April 16, 2007.

The rest of the world made the eminently practical and sensible switch to metric ages ago, but not you stubborn Americans. Ha ha ha! Oh no, better to waste endless time dealing with impractical units than to require the population to stretch their minds and move forward.. Suit yourselves.


What's so sensible? An inch is from the knuckle to the tip of my index finger, a foot is my size 12's with shoe on, a cubit is from my elbow to the tip of my index finger and two of those is a yard (from my index finger on my outstretched arm to my nose), a mile (mille) is 1,000 double-steps, a ton is one standard-sized big barrel of wine, an acre is the amount of ground one man can harvest with a sythe in one 10 hour day.

A hectare is what in your world of actual experience? A meter is 1/10,000,000th of the distance between the north pole and the equator, as if most people ever get to either one, let alone both of them to pace it off.

The English units are very practical and tied to human dimensions and units of historical commerce.

Teaspoons and tablespoons are mouth-sized. 3 teaspoons to a tablespoon, 16 tablespoons to a cup, two tablespoons to an ounce. A pint is how much a thirsty workman can drink at a long gulp. Makes recipes and meal planning intuitive for millions of cooks.

What's intuitive about a joule? Who even uses joules when they are not in a classroom or laboratory?

57. V26R
Pressure is 28.9 inches and still falling in Staten Island, NY with a southerly/easterly
wind starting to pick up
Meters to Feet or miles and Celsius to Farenheit is easy stuff. What I completely don't understand is the pressure in inches. I understand 980 MB much more than if you said 29 inches of pressure...
What's so great about metric?
The mb/inches conversion is very easy.Jusy multiply the inches by 33.89.
folks, re-read my post and it did sound snarky. My apologies.

But as a scientist, working with a variety of measurements in a variety of units on a regular basis let me tell you that I thank the good lord every day that I'm doing my work in metric units.

I grew up under using imperial system and know they're fine for lay people, but they're utterly impractical in the sciences..
Henry Margusity reported wind gusts around 79mph out on Staten Island, NY. I don't know, but that's pretty strong for a storm with a central pressure of 980mb.
Not really that rare for 980mb,capeweather.
funny it's an intense storm, but the precipitation shield is a lot smaller than models originally predicted
66. V26R
That wind gust was probably from a severe Thunder Storm we had about 0230z that went thru here, Lightning was very impressive
and totally unexpected here in extreme southern Staten Island, NY
And snowboy,I suppose 'whining' was a bit harsh.'Complaining' would've been better.sorry,LOL.
Pressure now at 1000mb and winds up to 40mph in gusts, but an area of heavier precip, rain is coming towards us and it looks like a pretty intense area of winds inside the rain band coming from the south southwest.

NOAA wave watch model
Wow...check out those dark blues just south of the radar.Those are very close to the surface.

I've had 3.5 inches here in the last 3 hours and its not showing any signs of stoping... in fact I don't think I'm even a quarter through it. Pressure still high at 1007mb, but I am far away from the storm...
An inch or inch and a half of rain here on Cape Cod, MA and the winds have increased to 40mph at 11:20pm.
73. V26R
Looks as if on the radar that the center of this monster is moving into the upper Chesapeake Bay area
Anyone have any pressure readings from that area?


Link
Pressure down to 979 in Atlantic City (28.91 inches)
Ok look.....how awful is this:

12 inches in a foot....3 feet in a yard.....5280 feet in a mile.....freezing point in Fahrenheit is 32 degrees....boiling point is at 212 degrees....16 ounces in a pound.....8 ounces in a cup....

Isn't that all a bit confusing and hard to remember? Check out metric:

10 millimeters in a centimeter.....100 centimeters in a meter.....1000 meters in a kilometer.....freezing point is at 0 in Celcius.....boiling point is at 100 degrees....1000 grams in a kilogram....

See how easy that is? It's all in powers of 10! And it makes so much sense to me in things like the Celsius temperature scale. Freezing at 0, boiling at 100. So simple! So convenient. I'm so used to Fahrenheit that I admit I'd hate to go to Celsius, but it's a better scale in my opinion.

Anyway that's my little rant on the whole deal smeal lol. Have fun with the nor'easter tonight! I won't be able to be here. You guys in New England be careful, the hurricane force winds are yet to come, and the storm surge and flooding will only get worse through tomorrow as the low winds up.

'Night everyone!
goodnight Levi.I'm out too guys.
77. V26R
Just looked here, I have 979 mb here in extreme southern Staten Island, wind is still from a southerly direction
SteveDa1, should clarify you're talking snow at your end..
79. V26R
Nite Kris
Thanks Levi32 for your concerns.
Everyone stay safe in the storm.
Buoy Station 44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY, 10:50pm EDT:

Wave hgt 17.4 feet, pressure 28.97 (981mb) falling rapidly.
preesure is 733.49 torr at Lakehurst,NJ. ;)
pressures around the bay are ranging anywhere from 985 down to 979... my garndfather has a boat in a marina on the middle penninsula...talked to him about 2 hours ago...he told me his barometer was 980.4 and falling....winds were anywhere from 20-35mph...had 1 gust up to 48 so far... said hes guessing hell get winds up in the 60's...possibly 70. Ill get his high gust and what not tomarrow when I talk to him... night guys.

Stay safe.
Well I am pretty sure they already knew. 3.5 inches of rain in 3 hours is... actually it's possible. Ok... it's snow.

Levi - you make a very good point, even though you are gone now. Metric is very simple.
update...he just called after I hit enter...lol...his pressure is down to 976 but not dropping as fast now... and he got a nice gust close to 60...

night guys...lol
About 7.20" of rain have fallen in Connecticut today and some more left to have. Winds sound stronger then 40mph but hey its just that. I got to wait for the low pressure to come this way before the winds catch up to the pressure falls.
Storm is west of Atlantic City, MD or southwest.
89. MZT
7 inches is getting alarming.

To put that in perspective, the historic floods in North Carolina from Hurricane Floyd were about 10-15 inches in most areas, with some 20 inch+ zones.

Considering that this storm could run for another couple of days, the rainfalls could be incredible. =:-(
There's problems here too... this snow is certainly going to keep falling through the night and by tomorrow morning I could be looking at a foot of snow with no electricity (it usually takes 10-12 inches of wet snow for the power lines and branches start falling.)

I understand the seriousness over your way though, probably will be worse than here.

This could easily be the season's best snowfall .... in mid-april! (best I got was 14 inches this year in one storm.)
Night All! Hopefully all prepared, the big stuff is yet to come! Be safe and my prayers are with all in it's path.
now down to 979mb in west-central NJ and still falling.
93. V26R
Time to go to work (UGH!)
Seeya
I messed up, the storm is now east, northeast of Atlantic City, NJ and moving to the north and west. High winds are still expected to overpread the region soon. As storm nears closest spot before the loop.
Pressure down to 977.3mb in Atlantic City! (-1.7mb from last hour)
Pressure now 976.45 mb in Freehold, NJ at 12 midnight and still falling rapidly!!
Pressure 28.86 @ Atlantic City airport. 7.44" rain @ Central Park, which is the second wettest day on record there.
Especially remarkable since all the previous top ten wettest days at Central Park were from August to November, when the Atlantic nearby is warmer, and can throw off more moisture.
pressure will bottom out at 97.1 to 96.9 by 6 am est then slowly rise as deep cyclone moves off by late tuse early wed total qpf totals between 12 to 14 inches liquid precip with 2 ft or more of snow in higher elavations expect highest winds to occur from 2 am till 2 pm blocking pattern will be in place for at lease another 4 to 6 days cyclone should start to fill in and weaken by late mon evening
there is an impressive sound from the stream just down the hill. the next level is tree branches firing off. and then whole trees. that's when the earthquake will bring forth god's wrath upon the earth and! ... what am i saying ?? sorry, kinda got away on me here. the wind is picking up. (lol)
meanwhile, the poster on the tip of Long Island is stranded on an island now with mad waters all around chest level. (eastcoast) earthquake??
whick, whack across your face..pull yourself together man..
It is possible that the center has passed Freehold, NJ. Lowest pressure in last 20 minutes was 975.57 mb and now (12:36 am) pressure is 975.64 mb. Wow!!
Is it just me or does there appear to be two distinct areas of low pressure rotation associated with this storm?


One in the south over Chesapeake Bay approaching Atlantic City.
Link

And one further north near Bennington, Vermont.
Link


It would be interesting to hear pressure readings from these areas.


The Great Blizzard of 2007 is starting to get into its stride, my thoughts go out to all those affected, its looks like its going to be a rough ride ahead for you guys.

Blizzard 2007

If this continues to intensify at its current rate, we may see a visible eye begin to form around the northernmost rotational axis well within 24 hours.

Take care guys, you're in for a long, cold night.
Hey FreeholdBoro - I live off Main near the race track. This storm is weird - NWS Belmar reads 28.85" (976)and there is no wind, none at all. The low looks to be right on top of us, or just off shore now. Belmar has the lowest reading I can find.
Wishful thinking we have now dropped to 974.93 mb at 12:50 am here in Freehold, NJ and resume the downward spiral....
chortle
hey all can you do some in for me Please


i am going to bed now and i no some of you like to stay up late like a night like this back on the E coast what a mass out there so i was hoping that you can keep me update in my blog why i am sleeping be come i am going to bed now and i like some one to drop by evere now and then and keep me update on the storm and what gos on in the overe night hrs can you do that for me? thanks you all i love you all and be safy out there to night i would want you to have a lifejacket with you tonight if you need it be safe from the foold waters
some one went me no in my blog how low the mb got with this storm ok
Taz..now don't wimp out, just because this is a noreaster and not a 'cane.


Link to picture.

Well - she's certainly thinking about tossing us an eye.

lol, hi
Wonder if the eye will clear out more and close the low, once it is over water, or if the storm will maintain the comma shape?
good morning everyone We are sitting around 996mb in Vermont lots of snow trees down everywhere and so much more fun to come!!!
Hard to say. That lovely tongue of dry air is doing a nice job of moderating the rain here a bit. I rather hope it stays with us.
115. H2PV
I don't know why everybody obsesses on storm eyes.

There are other parts. For example I happen to think that Hurricane Gordon last year had exceptionally attractive eyelashes.

Gordon Eyelashes
2:15 a.m. EST Pressure checks
-----------------------------

Buffalo NY 1000.6 hPa

Concord NH 996 hPa

Boston MA 990 hPa

Woonsocket RI 986 hPa

Albany NY 985.7 hPa

Trenton NJ 974 hPa

Philadelphia PA 976 hPa

New York NY 976 hPa

Dover DE 979 hPa

Hartford CT 981 hPa

Norfolk VA 990 hPa

Pittsburgh PA 1001 hPa
Good morning all.
Here in Europe another day with blue sky and warm temps.
Strange to think that you there are battered by a nasty storm.
My thoughts are with you. Stay safe!
Thanks for the kind thoughts. I'm off to bed now. Up early to put the finishing touches on the ark in the morning. :-)
Sigh... thank you, Starwoman. And darn it, someone posted a link to river level gauge near Trenton this afternoon, and I can't find that... it must be very bad there right now. :-(

Jo
Here you go. So far so good.

Delaware River at Trenton

The centre of the storm's rotation has developed somewhat over the last few hours and is currently passing over Atlantic City.

Link


Any rotation that had previously developed around the Albany,NY region has dissapated, as the storm has gained better overall organisation.


Here's a site within the "eye" if it can be called that, which is reporting pressures of 965mb!

Link
It looks like that 965 pressure may be 'pegged'. I wonder what the actual pressure is.
3:15 AM EDT Pressure Checks

Buffalo NY 998 hPa

Concord NH 993 hPa

Boston MA 990 hPa

Woonsocket RI 983 hPa

Albany NY 982.3 hPa

Trenton NJ 972 hPa

Philadelphia PA 975 hPa

New York NY 973 hPa

Dover DE 980 hPa

Hartford CT 979 hPa

Norfolk VA 990 hPa

Pittsburgh PA 1001 hPa

It looks like we may have the east motion stall though there still seems to be some movement to the north.

Bombs away. Butler NJ is now down to 960.9.

Link to Graph
So Im thinking by the radar this is the center of the system over Newtown, Pennsylvania
Thanks, sfranz... just what I wanted/needed, and you're right, it doesn't look too bad, or at least not as bad as I expected, considering. :-)

And 960 now... gahhh!

Jo

Yep. The circulation was briefly closed
but I don't know if that will last. Butler NJ is down to 958.Jefferson township is reporting 944.
Allendale has 867 but I'm not buying that.

More pictures of the storm center rotation

4:30 AM EDT Pressure Checks

Buffalo NY 997 hPa

Concord NH 991 hPa

Boston MA 988 hPa

Woonsocket RI 982 hPa

Albany NY 979.9 hPa

Trenton NJ 970 hPa

Philadelphia PA 974 hPa

New York NY 971 hPa

Dover DE 980 hPa

Hartford CT 976 hPa

Norfolk VA 991 hPa

Pittsburgh PA 1001 hPa
sfranz
I checked on Allendale, NJ and it's at an elevation of 354 ft. Would that explain the crazy pressure readings? Also, just how bad could this storm get? Have there been lower pressure readings in other Nor'easters over the years, or is this system one of the worst? Thanks.
The 1993 superstorm broke low pressure readings, this one is very close to that one now!!

One last rotation picture of the storm center.

Storm Center appx 4:30 a.m.
My understanding is that 970 is well within the range of many hurricanes. The 1993 superstorm checked in at 960. This storm seems to be within that range based on pressure readings. We'll have to wait for the "official" numbers.

Observation at PAM site
for Apr 16, 2007 at 06:00 EDT

Winds: 6.8 knts 310* NW
Temp: 35*F 2*C
Wet Bulb: 97.5%
Pressure: 964.4mb

http://www.wx.rutgers.edu/



Well I guess I missed it :( My daughter was sick yesterday so it was a day indoors. By 4am this morning during my commute I didnt see much in the way of anything. I am now on the waterfront and must say the water is HIGH still 2 hours till high tide and the water is almost at the top of the docks. I have the camera with me but as of right now I just have wet pavement to look at and a few puddles nothing of importance. I guess I missed this one :(




My Goodness !!!!!!!!!
Station ALSN6 - Ambrose Light, NY 6:00am EDT

28.55", 966.81mb (falling)

CAT-1, 28.94", 980mb
CAT-2, 28.50"-28.91", 965mb-979mb
CAT-3, 27.91"-28.47", 945mb-964mb
CAT-4, 27.17"-27.88", 920mb-944mb
CAT-5, <27.17", <920mb
" Ex-Generals say that global warming will affect American security "

You dont say.
My current pressure is 968.0mbs!!!!!!!!!!!!
NJ now in a state of emergency due to historic river floding. Acting Gov Codey issued state of emergency after 50 to 80 major roads are flooded and most if not all rivers are at flood stage and forcast to reach historical crests.


Local news stations reporting pressures as low as a Cat 2 Hurricane (thank god the winds dont match!!) A reporter for the local Fox news station has said pressures are now lower then The Storm Of The Century, Perfect Storm, And the 1992 Storm. They are expecting the pressure to continue to fall as the day progresses forcast to bottom out at 964mb!


I can tell you this folks the water is getting higher here at the piers! Almost even with the top of them. Guesstimating about 8 inches to a foot below the top. Normally these piers stand 5 to 10 feet above the water level (I work on container ships not pleasure boats) so the water being this high is cause for concern as high tide is still 45 minutes away and the winds are pushing the waves up the channel still. Camera is at the ready!
Currently here on Cape Cod, MA heavy wind driven rain with gusts almost 50mph and sustained 30-35mph. The lowest pressure so far here has been 983mb and the highest wind gust reported by the NWS has been 63mph here.
Just looked at the barometer... 965.6mb!!! falling still.
I think we may see Cat 3 pressures here.. only needs another .7mb to reach it.
That isnt a Cat-3,,,nor a cat anything.Its a cold core..Noreaster...Period.
Bone isnt 965 cat 4 pressure?? Hey i only got my degree at severe weather not tropical weather!:)
The animated infrared in Motion..Its a Noreaster...closing off this morning offshore...the pressures dont relate to a warm cored wind field...its cold cored..a big difference. A warm cored Hurricane is Vertically stacked around a tight center..This isnt. But the wind field is large and the effects are widespread.
Thanks Pat i kenw that there was something different between the two!!!:) My town is flooding as i type! and my basement is flooding!!!
Buoy 44040..Long Island area...Link
Station 44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY

Wave Height (WVHT): 17.1 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 28.59 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY):
-0.06 in ( Falling )
Stay safe..chaser..Get some pics!.
Thats a big drop as it came in on the Buoy data..always impressive to see a drop like that.Link
Patrap I didnt say it was a cat anything I was relating what 965mb pressures to. Sort of an anology. Even the news reports are doing the same.

The winds here are about 12mph gusting 20 so I know its not even a bad wind storm.
Will try Pat !! Gotta go out to town and help clean up around the town!
Certainly...I was just relating how its not WHAT brings the misery..its the effects that count.No slight intended....its only Monday.
Local news reporting we are under the "eye" right now. Meaning low winds no precip. within the next few hours though we will see the winds shift to the NW then W and pick up again and get the wrap around moisture.
If wandering out in floodwaters..ALWAYS carry a large stick or other implement to probe ahead.We lost 2 people after Katrina in our group to just walking into open submerged manhole covers. A real danger they are..pass the word on that if venturing out Chaser.
It appears an eye like feature is trying to develop east of southern New Jersey.
High tide expect in the next 10 minutes or so. I will go out and see where the water level is.
The backside of that thing ,,is pretty stiff too,..the winds will be gusty. Notice here,..how the isobars are tighter on the coastal land side than the ocean side. Link
The system has slowed to a crawl as it now organizes and stays around drifting slowly for another day. Things along the coast could become problamatic thru the next 24hours...too.
Yup. I noticed that earlier this morning when I got my WXFax. The gradient is actually tightest in the southwestern quadrent so I will see my highest winds later this morning into early evening.
Im sure that Dr. Masters will have an update later this morning for us to see.
Take prudent measures to stay safe Bonedog..
Station 44005 - GULF OF MAINE 78 NM EAST OF PORTSMOUTH,NH (+/- 250 miles from storm center?)

6:40am EDT

29.30" (992.2mb) falling rapidly
18' wave hgt
35kt sustained wind, gusts to 45kts (due east)

.75" rain in Midcoast Maine in the past 2 hours
check out the storm surge models for the Northeast

Link

Patrap they are forcasting a retrogrde on this system then a departure later Tuesday into Wednesday
Yeah..the GFSx showed that could happen Saturday..its going to linger..thats not a good secnario..Link
check this out.. Link

its a combined IR image of the storm with overlayed wind barbs and significant wave height in feet. I wont spoil the surprise by telling you what it shows
Battery Park Tides graph..updated and enlarged..Link
This mornings high tide just surpassed last nights here at the Battery..due to the slowing and lingering..Link
Link

check the link out to see how high the rivers in my area are running. BTW purple dots signify major flooding. Click any dot to see update height.
Ok 3 minutes past high tide here going to look at the water level.
172. IKE
Check out the pressure at Central Park!

"Observed at: Central Park, New York
Elevation: 89 ft / 27 m
[Light Rain]
44 F / 7 C
Light Rain Mist
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 42 F / 6 C
Wind: 9 mph / 15 km/h / 4.1 m/s from the North
Pressure: 28.64 in / 970 hPa (Rising)
Windchill: 39 F / 4 C
Visibility: 2.0 miles / 3.2 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Overcast 700 ft / 213 m
(Above Ground Level)".......
Final Rain Total for Severna Park,MD is 2.67" and the lowest pressure recorded is 982.2mb or 29.01" Highest wind gust so far today is 41 mph out of the NW.
Back. water level is just below the top of the piers!! Just thanking God that the winds have shifted to the NW and the waves are being knocked down a little. If this was stil an East wind then we would be overtoped.

Rain is starting to pick up and so is my baramoter.. showing 966.2 and rising. That makes the 964.4mb earlier the lowest reading on mine. 964 amazing for a non tropical system (pressure equal to a strong cat 2 low cat 3) Im just glad wind speeds didnt equal pressures or we would have been in deep trouble here.

We are looking at our strongest winds later today. NWS is reporting 25 to 35mph gusts to 40 for later today. I am wondering how many power outages will result due to the saturated ground being able to release its grip on trees once the winds pick up.
Best be glad it isnt Aug or Sept Bonedog..this in a way.. is a good eye-opener to many.
Oh yea it did. Folks should heed this. Imagine if we had higher winds.. I think towns and cities will update emergency managment plans.

We still havent seen the end of the rain and the rivers are way above flood stage already. On my way home I will try and stop by the local dam and shoot some photos of the spill over. They are calling for a historical crest at the dam later today.
impressive looking storm.

I live in south east NY by the CT,MA, NY border, recieved over 6.5" of rain and nearly everything is flooding over, the only good thing here is the terrain is hilly enough not to create massive widespread flooding. We have a pond which overspread its banks and is 4 times orginal size hit our electrical box whiped it out and is now smoking. Should be fun registered a wind gust at 59mph
The lowest pressure I stumbled across was in NJ at about 956.9hPa. That's really low.
Just thinking...I am just glad that enough notice was given for those with good common sense to prepare for this. I also went ahead and looked at the 1993 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which did not look too bad to me. I did notice that the SST's are a bit higher this year. All in all, I would not mind copying that year's Hurricane Season this time around. At least from what I could tell of it.
956.9hPa? Are you sure it's not 965.9hPa? Cause that's really low...

Anyways, someone was laughing at me when I said it would get down betwee 965-970mb and the pressure at New York City as of 9:00AM is 969.6mb.
956.9 is correct:

183. TAC9
My pressure is currently 988mb in Brockton, Mass (South Shore). We have had about 2 1/2" of rain so far. Right now we have light rain and the winds have really died down. Does anyone think my pressure will drop further?
956.9 is correct:

But the center of the low is clearly over long Island so isn't that where the lowest pressure would be?
Is it me or is an eyewall trying to organize on top of Long Island?
if 956.9..was/is...Id be really impressed.LOL
Crazy - got a link for that? I'd love to see that in motion.

I was in a storm once near Chicago that had an eye. Wind and rain; then suddenly clear; then return wind/rain from the opposite direction.
Here in Port Jervis, Ny we have a 974.2Pa. We have had approx 7.27" of rain since yesterday morning. Rivers are up there and schools are closed in fear of flooding situation. At 8am the Delaware in Port Jervis was 9.98 and begining flood stage is 12feet.
Has anyone looked at the winds on Mt. Wash this AM?

108 mph sustained, w/gusts to 137!!