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Here’s the Scoop on New NOAA Severe Weather Risk Categories

By: Bob Henson 4:35 PM GMT on March 23, 2015

Now that spring is upon us, the odds are rising that millions of Americans will find themselves under a “slight,” “moderate,” or even “high” risk of severe weather at some point in the next few months. These terms have been used by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) since 1981 to describe the anticipated likelihood of large hail, damaging winds, and/or tornadoes. From seasoned emergency managers to budding weather geeks, many thousands of Americans follow each twist and turn of the SPC categorical risk maps, officially known as convective outlooks. The maps, along with accompanying expert discussions, are updated at five specified times (0600, 1300, 1630, 2000, and 0100 GMT) for same-day activity (Day 1), at 0600 and 1730 GMT for next-day activity (Day 2), and just once (0730 GMT) for Day 3.

Last fall the SPC risk categories underwent their first substantial revision in 33 years. The main change was to add two categories on either side of the “slight risk” designation.

Marginal: a stray severe storm is possible, but probabilities are too low to merit a slight risk. (This replaces the label “SEE TEXT”, which had been used to steer readers to the discussion accompanying each outlook for more details.)

Enhanced: activity may be more widespread than implied by a slight risk, but a moderate risk is not justified.


Each of the five categories used by SPC relates to a certain level of probability of various types of severe weather. These probabilities are issued by SPC forecasters in Norman, Oklahoma, based on a wide range of guidance from national- and storm-scale computer models and observations. Although the five risk categories aren’t used beyond Day 3, SPC does provide probabilities and discussions out to days 4 through 8, providing an important heads-up on threatening situations that show up consistently in long-range guidance. For example, the risk of a multi-day severe weather episode across the south central states was highlighted five days ahead of the devastating Super Outbreak that peaked on April 27, 2011.


Figure 1. Top: the Day 1 convective outlook issued by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center at 1630 GMT on April 27, 2011. Bottom: how this outlook would have appeared in the newly expanded five-tier structure, with the categories “marginal” (MRGL) and “enhanced” (ENH) now included. Image credit: NOAA/SPC.


The pros and cons of risk terminology
For those with enough technical savvy, probabilities are very helpful, but other users need or prefer a more concise message. This is where the worded categories come in. It’s widely acknowledged that the terminology isn’t perfect--to an untrained ear, “slight” could sound dismissive, and “moderate” may not carry the gravity it deserves--but SPC opted to refine a familiar, widely trusted system rather than uproot it. As they explain: “The categorical words Slight, Moderate and High have been used by SPC for nearly 35 years and are generally understood by the weather risk communication community. Making measured changes, we believe, is more effective than a wholesale change.”

A separate concern with the risk categories is that the extent of severe storms doesn’t necessarily correspond with how strong they are. Sometimes you have enough widespread wind or hail to merit a moderate risk, but there are few tornadic thunderstorms and little major damage. Conversely, an isolated supercell might produce a destructive tornado even if it’s located in a slight-risk area. SPC attempts to capture these distinctions on Day 1 by breaking the probabilities for each threat into two categories: general severe weather and “significant” severe weather (see Figure 2 caption). The probabilities in each tier then determine which of the five risk categories is in effect, using the somewhat complicated table shown in Figure 2.


Figure 2. The risk categories (colored boxes) that correspond to various percentage probabilities of severe weather (left axis of figure) in the SPC Day 1 convective outlooks. Slightly different tables are used for Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks. When more than one category is valid in a given area, the highest category is used (e.g., an area with 45% probabilities of all three types of severe weather would be designated as high risk, but if the 45% probability only existed for hail and wind, the risk designation would be moderate). A severe thunderstorm produces hail at least 1” in diameter, wind gusts of at least 58 mph, and/or a tornado. “Significant” severe events include 2” diameter hail, wind gusts of at least 75 mph, and EF2 tornadoes. Image credit: NOAA/SPC.


How are they used?
“The convective outlooks are very important products to emergency managers,” says Kenneth Galluppi, associate director of the Advanced Technology Innovation Center at Arizona State University. Galluppi and colleagues have interviewed many hundreds of emergency managers over the years to analyze how they receive and communicate information. Weather is just one of the many threats an EM has to deal with, Galluppi notes, so there’s major pressure to look for clear break points that distinguish more-serious from less-serious weather days. His work suggests that that many EMs wait until a moderate risk is in effect. This is especially true in storm-prone parts of the country, where slight-risk days are commonplace in the spring and summer. The new “enhanced” category provides one way to alert EMs and others that a situation falling short of the moderate designation still deserves attention. However, it may take time for EMs and other users to adapt to the new system. In a few informal tests carried out at conferences, Galluppi found that EMs gravitated to the moderate-risk zones even when the new “enhanced” area was present. “In terms of triggering action, ‘moderate’ seems to be the flag,” says Galluppi.

How the SPC system began
The use of a multi-tiered labeling system for storm risk has deep roots. The first such system was in place not long after the 1952 establishment in Washington, D.C., of the Weather Bureau Severe Weather Unit, which eventually became the National Severe Storms Forecast Center in Kansas City, MO, and later moved to Norman as SPC. According to SPC forecaster Stephen Corfidi, the original outlooks included the following four categories:

Isolated thunderstorms (expected to cover less than 15% of the marked area)
Widely scattered thunderstorms (15 - 30%)
Scattered severe thunderstorms (31 – 45%)
Numerous severe thunderstorms (more than 45%)

By the mid-1970s, these outlooks were being featured on NBC’s “Today” show as part of NOAA’s SKYWARN program. This was one of the few ways in which the outlooks reached the general public in those pre-Internet, pre-Weather Channel days.

As far as Corfidi can tell, the “numerous” category was never used, but on the morning of the epic Super Outbreak of April 3, 1974, forecaster Roy Darrah placed a large section of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys under a “scattered” risk. “ ‘Scattered’ was the default ‘high’ risk of that period,” Corfidi told me. “It was a pretty gutsy call. The forecast was very good, both spatially and temporally.” (See Figure 3). A total of 148 tornadoes occurred on April 3-4--the largest 24-hour total until the catastrophic Super Outbreak of April 2011--and more than 300 people were killed, a toll unmatched until the 2011 outbreak. Almost all of the U.S. tornadoes occurred within the “scattered” risk area. Bill Murray (Alabama Weather Blog) offers an evocative retrospective on that day’s outlooks.


Figure 3. Convective outlooks issued early on April 3, 1974, for the period from 1200 April 3 to 0000 GMT April 4 (left) and 0000 – 1200 GMT April 4 (right). The crosshatching on the left map shows watches already in effect. Image credit: Stephen Corfidi, NOAA/SPC.

By 1977, forecasters and researchers began to ponder whether the coverage-based labels such as “few” or “scattered” might leave users confused over whether the terms applied to severe storms or to thunderstorms in general. The result was a new system, adopted in 1980, with new labels and percentages that applied specifically to severe storms:

Low: 2-5% coverage of severe storms
Moderate: 6-10% coverage
High: greater than 10% coverage
(The category “low” was changed to “slight” in 1981.)

The first-ever “high risk” outlook, and the first tornado watch to bear the label “particularly dangerous situation,” were issued on April 2, 1982. Later that day, one of the nation’s worst tornado outbreaks on record produced 56 tornadoes from Texas to Illinois, killing 30 people and injuring more than 300. The toll could have been much higher were it not for the unusually strong early notice of the situation and the substantial lead time for warnings of some of the worst tornadoes. A Silver Medal from the U.S. Department of Commerce went to the seven meteorologists behind the successful forecast, including Bob Johns, whose longtime role at SPC is outlined in a fascinating open-access paper, “A Forecaster’s Story: Robert H. Johns,” available in the E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology.


Figure 4. The TOR:CON outlook issued on Feb. 8, 2015 (not today!). Image credit: The Weather Channel.


TOR:CON--another way to describe tornado risk
Regular viewers of The Weather Channel and users of weather.com will recognize the phrase TOR:CON (Tornado Condition Index). This frequently updated alert system was created by severe weather expert Dr. Greg Forbes and colleagues in 2009 to capture the risk of tornadoes on a simple 1-to-10 scale. A TOR:CON value of 3 corresponds to a 30% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a given point, whereas the analogous SPC tornado probabilities apply within 25 miles.

“Since the area is four times larger for a 50-mile radius than for a 25-mile radius, the implied TOR:CON probabilities are generally higher than those of SPC,” says Forbes. He adds: “TOR:CON values reflect my own forecast and are not just mathematical translations of the SPC forecast.”

This week’s outlook
Severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are possible on Tuesday from eastern Oklahoma into Missouri, with the zone stretching on Wednesday from north Texas into southern Illinois. As of this morning (Monday), the odds of widespread severe weather or strong tornadoes appear low. SPC has slight-risk zones in effect for Tuesday and Wednesday. TOR:CON values reach a maximum of 3 on both days. The Weather Channel maintains a TOR:CON update page in addition to its severe weather tracking page.

Bob Henson

Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Doc! I'm closely watching the weather tomorrow and wednesday!
A separate concern with the risk categories is that the extent of severe storms doesn’t necessarily correspond with how strong they are. Sometimes you have enough widespread wind or hail to merit a moderate risk, but there are few tornadic thunderstorms and little major damage. Conversely, an isolated supercell might produce a destructive tornado even if it’s located in a slight-risk area. SPC attempts to capture these distinctions on Day 1 by breaking the probabilities for each threat into two categories: general severe weather and “significant” severe weather (see Figure 2 caption). The probabilities in each tier then determine which of the five risk categories is in effect, using the somewhat complicated table shown in Figure 2.

i'm not sold this is a good idea.....my first impression...is that the more levels you add...the less urgency people will feel to stay aware of their surroundings if they are in lower levels of risk
Thanks Doc......The TOR:CON to me is a good way to communicate the tornado risk to the public....Maybe one day they will have a 1-10 scale for climate change.....
Thanks Bob...
Quoting 3. yoboi:

Thanks Doc......The TOR:CON to me is a good way to communicate the tornado risk to the public....Maybe one day they will have a 1-10 scale for climate change.....


Nice way to sneak that in! (By the way, climate change is already turned up to 11....)
Thanks Mr. Henson for the detailed breakdown on the SPC and outlooks. As I noted this morning on the earlier Blog, the modelling is often combined with with balloon soundings from local NWS offices, in the short-term periods, so they can fine tune the outlooks (based on data from the balloons and mid-level shear/jet location/lapse rates, etc) and move up the categories from moderate up to higher risk. However, I believe that SPC just issues the risk categories and the local NWS offices are responsible for issuing the watches; SPC then posts the watches-warnings on their "chart" and the storm reports as they come in.

On a related note (and with today's outlook with regard to hail potential), I learned something from my local roofers/contractors this past Fall who were putting a new roof on my house that I never thought about. Talking to them about my personal weather obsessions, they noted that they "love" hail storms and have beeper/cell alerts for hail storms in any part of the Country. They love it, as opposed to hurricanes, because they can get in, usually still have power at their re-roof locations, and don't have to deal with the normal post-hurricane inconveniences. Just noting the "economic" impact of a quiet no severe weather event period on contractors and roofers; a shame that they hope for this kind of weather to swoop in for the insurance work but a fact of life; severe weather events results in good profits for them and for the construction/home repair supply chains.
Horrible changes. Increased granularity of categories = user dissonance = more likely to ignore. Average Joe needs "at a glance" information that doesn't confuse. Low, Moderate, and High categories do the trick.

Another case of the experts gathering in committee and coming up with a "solution" that makes sense for them, but no one else.
Thanks Dok Henson!

Funny thing in the AFD this morning.

OF LAST NOTE, THE GFS WAS HINTING AT AN INTENSE SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ON APRIL 1ST (NEARLY 10 DAYS OUT). HOPE THIS IS
AN APRIL FOOL`S JOKE
...OR IT WILL BE BUSY THAT EVENING.


Under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.

Severe weather season is finally getting started.
Quoting tlawson48:


Nice way to sneak that in! (By the way, climate change is already turned up to 11....)


The average person doesn't have a clue about the Tor-Con Index.
Walk up to some one the street and ask them what a Tor-Con Index of 3 means.
I can bet you about 95 % will say "Tor-Con what?" "What's a Tor-Con Index?"
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


The average person doesn't have a clue about the Tor-Con Index.
Walk up to some one the street and ask them what a Tor-Con Index of 3 means.
I can bet you about 95 % will say "Tor-Con what?" "What's a Tor-Con Index?"


But we all know it really means your level of danger from getting hit by a tornado...
I like the newer SPC outlook scales. I often put out the info warning wise to family/friends/coworkers with upcoming severe events, and usually clarify the significance of each risk level. I am a weather enthusiast but also like to keep folks out of harms way.

Nice to see that they are revising it, because in my opinion science takes a while to evolve and better categorize. Their buzz words may not address much however our local mets usually indicate the significance of each risk level to their viewers. (I assume this is most TV Mets?)
Come on rain hold together just a little longer.
22 days with no rain at my place just south of Fort Myers.

I also think most people would think "Enhanced" is worse than "Moderate". I even think that, in a linguistic sense. It's only my weather obsession that has trained me to see "Moderate" and think "Uh oh! The atmosphere is gonna throw down! Better notify the folks to keep a close eye out"
Quoting 10. 62901IL:



But we all know it really means your level of danger from getting hit by a tornado...




It's the chances of a tornado hitting within 50 miles of a point.
The "recent" Super Outbreak was a 2011 event, right? -- Not 2012?
Quoting 62901IL:


But we all know it really means your level of danger from getting hit by a tornado...


The average person just knows that when there's tornado warning you should be taking cover.

And usually, people only take a warning seriously if there's been an actual tornado sighted (and the local news is showing the tornado heading towards the city).
Quoting 8. 62901IL:

Thanks Dok Henson!

Funny thing in the AFD this morning.

OF LAST NOTE, THE GFS WAS HINTING AT AN INTENSE SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ON APRIL 1ST (NEARLY 10 DAYS OUT). HOPE THIS IS
AN APRIL FOOL`S JOKE
...OR IT WILL BE BUSY THAT EVENING.


Under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.

Severe weather season is finally getting started.



Yep. You'll mainly see a wind threat early wednesday.
Quoting 15. OrchidGrower:

The "recent" Super Outbreak was a 2011 event, right? -- Not 2012?



April 27th, 2011 but the system it was associated with produced tornadoes from the 25th-28th.
Trying to quantify the risk of a specific area receiving severe weather is a crap shoot. No way around that. On a severe weather day, even outside a risk boundary the risk is not nil. Within or without a risk boundary, someone / somewhere / somewhen will take a hit no matter what meteorologists do or say. For detailed potential types and probabilities of risk, best pay attention to the watches and MCDs issued by SPC "in the moment" on risk days.

In some ways, these new risk categories seem like CYA by SPC because they've been told they need to communicate better with the public. I doubt the new convective outlook risk categories will change actions taken by most of the general public - though I do like the "marginal" and I pay attention to it.

(Gallupi's) work suggests that that many EMs wait until a moderate risk is in effect. This is especially true in storm-prone parts of the country, where slight-risk days are commonplace in the spring and summer. The new "enhanced" category provides one way to alert EMs and others that a situation falling short of the moderate designation still deserves attention. However, it may take time for EMs and other users to adapt to the new system. In a few informal tests carried out at conferences, Galluppi found that EMs gravitated to the moderate-risk zones even when the new "enhanced" area was present. "In terms of triggering action, 'moderate" seems to be the flag," says Galluppi.

What kind of "action"? I am unable to find any of Gallupi's original "research" (poll taking?) on this subject of slight vs. moderate convective outlooks. Emergency managers where I live (central Oklahoma) activate spotters routinely in Spring (add: slight risks), sometimes without a slight risk even. The responsibility to alert municipalities, schools, industry, etc falls on their shoulders... or does it? I think that's where the disconnect, if you want to call it that, occurs.

I did find this in a Galluppi [Is he related to Gallup? ;) ] survey / study entitled "Improving Weather and Emergency Management Messaging: The Tulsa Weather Message Experiment" which states, related to emergency managers...
"Weather understanding is based on 6 critical elements:
WHAT, WHERE, WHEN, HOW LONG, CURRENT IMPACTS, and HOW SURE ARE WE?"


Knowing ALL THAT is a pipe dream where weather, especially severe, is concerned. It is the responsibility of every member of the public to pay attention and to have a severe weather plan of action. Assume the worst and be happy if a tornado doesn't take a run at you or at a loved one.

Too much sniveling goes on about SPC weather forecasts. Getting hit by severe is a crap shoot, and the forecasters ain't rolling the dice. The SKY is.
Nada
It seems people these days want specific, precise predictions rather than chances even though I doubt that is even possible in the near to medium term. Even weather savvy people on this blog call a forecast low 3 degrees off as "way off" and rain with a previous forecast of a 30 percent chance of rain a "busted" forecast. El-Nino conditions manifesting a few months after earlier forecasts are considered "a huge bust". The tropical system cone of uncertainty doesn't sink in for some people and around here if the snow amount forecast doesn't perfectly nail it at someone's house they make snide remarks on how "they should have become a weatherman".
I find all probability forecasts useful and try to remind friends what it actually means instead of speaking in absolutes.
I must be bad. Waiting for the rain to come in and get a bunch of people wet.
The Boston Red Sox practice right by where I live.
They just finished filling up the stadium with thousands of people for an afternoon Spring Training game.


So far not a drop yet here just S.E. of town.
Quoting 15. OrchidGrower:

The "recent" Super Outbreak was a 2011 event, right? -- Not 2012?
April, yes. Perhaps the (add: other 2012) reference is to the 2012 early March (2-4 I think) Super Outbreak. Pretty sure Mar 2012 surpassed 2011 in tornado numbers, but it did not have as high a death toll as 2011.

LInk to SPC archived severe events if anyone's interested.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:




It's the chances of a tornado hitting within 50 miles of a point.


That's what I meant.

Quoting TimTheWxMan:



Yep. You'll mainly see a wind threat early wednesday.


But finally, severe weather season is here! That's what I have been waiting for all year long...

Quoting Gearsts:
Nada


Just scattered weak lows...probably nothing.
For anyone interested: Today is World Meteorlogical day.
What is really needed is a "Tornado Confirmed" notification above a Tornado Warning. When they changed the meaning of Tornado Warning to 'imminent' as well as 'it's happening", it seems that they also opened up the areal coverage of the warnings, at least here in Northern Virginia, so the communities perceived threat went down. We usually get several warnings a year with nothing happening, but there is no additional mechanism in place to notify that bad things are actually happening.
Quoting 18. TimTheWxMan:




April 27th, 2011 but the system it was associated with produced tornadoes from the 25th-28th.
Quoting 15. OrchidGrower:

The "recent" Super Outbreak was a 2011 event, right? -- Not 2012?


That's right: it was indeed April 2011, as noted earlier in the blog. Now fixed. Many thanks for the quick catch!

--Bob
Nice update.

Another beautiful cloud free day in Alaska... 20s in the morning, but supposed to warm up to the mid-40s this afternoon.

Happy World Met. Day everyone.
I remember the Today show weather map as being better than most others and I made an effort during summer vacation to get up to see it by 8:37 or so when the last one showed.

Severe weather outlooks started on this map in spring 1970 if I remember correctly. I remember a mid atlantic one verifying while I was in sixth grade April or May of 1970; we got hammered with a horrendous thunderstorm near noon the day I saw us inside the concern area for the first time.
Quoting 24. 62901IL:



That's what I meant.



But finally, severe weather season is here! That's what I have been waiting for all year long...



Just scattered weak lows...probably nothing.



Amen to that! It's been 5 1/2 months since there's been so much as a rumble of thunder.
It's actually raining at my location on the S.E. side of Fort Myers (sorry people watching the Red Sox game).

.20" so far and raining moderately.
Quoting 29. georgevandenberghe:

I remember the Today show weather map as being better than most others and I made an effort during summer vacation to get up to see it by 8:37 or so when the last one showed.

Severe weather outlooks started on this map in spring 1970 if I remember correctly. I remember a mid atlantic one verifying while I was in sixth grade April or May of 1970; we got hammered with a horrendous thunderstorm near noon the day I saw us inside the concern area for the first time.


I dare to think that a lot of people on this blog were not even born yet in 1970. (I wasn't).

So I will take your word for it. And here, remembering the early days of TWC started I thought was a big deal. I also remember it because it was the first time I ever saw "cable" TV. Until then all we had was a small black and white TV. Had to go over to the grand parents house to see a color TV.
Quoting 27. BobHenson:



That's right: it was indeed April 2011, as noted earlier in the blog. Now fixed. Many thanks for the quick catch!

--Bob



No problem, Bob!

Quoting Dakster:


I dare to think that a lot of people on this blog were not even born yet in 1970. (I wasn't).

Thanks for making me feel even older than I usually do!! I had already been working for several years when 1970 came around. :-(
Okay, well today's rain event was just pitiful. I really hope the models pan out for later this week.
Quoting 34. ozprof:


Thanks for making me feel even older than I usually do!! I had already been working for several years when 1970 came around. :-(

LOL i'll second that,me also
Atlantis, LA

The nexus of the universe! (And a hell of a wind chill)
Quoting 31. Sfloridacat5:

It's actually raining at my location on the S.E. side of Fort Myers (sorry people watching the Red Sox game).

.20" so far and raining moderately.
nice I know you have been dry lately also,looks the the rain has moved southward now..rains stopped in the tampa bay area.
Instead of dividing the Probability category into two categories (general and significant), an index could be developed using Probabilty and Severity as the two inputs. You'd have to specify the type of severe weather or else combine them as shown through the link above for Figure 2. Have a matrix with Probability and Severity and display the five descriptors as outputs of the matrix.
Why are the boundaries of the risk regions drawn with arrowheads?
What is TSTM (not mentioned anywhere)?
I found the following item from the Washington Post newspaper TV Week amusing:
Movie: Into the Storm
Saturday 8 p.m. on HBO Thanks to some genuinely impressive "weather porn" special effects, this 2014 action thriller recouped its production budget three times over, despite a nearly unaminously negative storm front from critics. Richard Armitage (the "Hobbit" movies), Sarah Wayne Callies ("The Walking Dead") and Matt Walsh (HBO's "Veep") are among the recognizable actors in this story that involves a massive tornado and ... you know what, just enjoy the dramatic clouds.
41. N3EG
I think it's a great idea. There have been many times I thought "SLGT" was not aggressive enough for the conditions, and ENH fills that gap.
Quoting 26. FarmerKarl:

We usually get several warnings a year with nothing happening, but there is no additional mechanism in place to notify that bad things are actually happening.

I'd be wary of saying things like this unless you've double checked with reports to be sure. Just because you're in the tornado warning doesn't mean you're in the direct path of the twister, and just because you're not in the direct path of the twister doesn't mean someone else isn't. So, in the end, just because you weren't hit by a twister doesn't mean someone else wasn't.
@ 40. gippgig
Check Storm Prediction Center (SPC) acronyms list for TSTM. A holdover, used for a long time. Bet you'll laugh.

The Arrows. Possibly traditional wx map drawing, like the ALL CAPS for NWS products. Perhaps someone else knows for sure.

@39. Zaffre
The day 1 convective outlooks have type-specific probabilities available to some extent.

In the moment - where severe weather lives its life - SPC's thunderstorm and tornado watches have much more detail on types and probabilities. SPC mesoscale discussions point better to when and where and what... especially once the sky has broken into song.

Who gets hit with what, where the EF 4 and 5 winds happen... still a crapshoot.
Quoting LargoFl:
nice I know you have been dry lately also,looks the the rain has moved southward now..rains stopped in the tampa bay area.


.33" total.
I'll take it after 22 days of no rain. Just enough to keep the grass happy for a few days.
Hopefully the front later this week will give us some more.
I'm confused by this


So 5% Hail and Wind is Marginal.

But 10% significant Hail and Wind is nothing??
That makes no sense.
Quoting 32. Dakster:



I dare to think that a lot of people on this blog were not even born yet in 1970. (I wasn't).

So I will take your word for it. And here, remembering the early days of TWC started I thought was a big deal. I also remember it because it was the first time I ever saw "cable" TV. Until then all we had was a small black and white TV. Had to go over to the grand parents house to see a color TV.


I'm just young enough not to have learned to use a slide rule. About the time I needed square roots and transcendental functions, scientific calculators came out. I actually needed square roots for about six months before I got a square root calculator but I knew the method of bisection to find roots and it was fast on my mother's elementary four function calculator used to keep finances.
a question if I may...are their less sun spots now?..The last Little ice age began with a warming then it hit..at the time sun spots had lessened...some scientists are warning we are heading down the same path...anyone know?
Quoting 43. Barefootontherocks:

@ 40. gippgig
Check Storm Prediction Center (SPC) acronyms list for TSTM. A holdover, used for a long time. Bet you'll laugh.


Oh. Maybe you had figured out the acronym and wonder what the light green risk area means weatherwise. Here's SPC's explanation of the light green area designated as TSTM: "General or non-severe thunderstorms - Delineates, to the right of a line, where a 10% or greater probability of thunderstorms is forecast during the valid period."
Quoting LargoFl:
a question if I may...are their less sun spots now?..The last Little ice age began with a warming then it hit..at the time sun spots had lessened...some scientists are warning we are heading down the same path...anyone know?
As has been explained here patiently about a thousand times, literally the only people calling for an imminent ice age are those relatively few folks ideologically and/or intellectually incapable of grasping the relatively simple physics behind fossil fuel-driven climate change.

Here's something to chew on: the sun has been near record low levels of activity for many years, yet the earth has continue to warm apace all that time. Ask yourself how that's possible, then get back to us...
Interesting read about the Atlantic circulation (AMOC) slowing down and the possible consequences...
Link
Quoting 47. LargoFl:

a question if I may...are their less sun spots now?..The last Little ice age began with a warming then it hit..at the time sun spots had lessened...some scientists are warning we are heading down the same path...anyone know?


We're currently at the maximum of the solar 11 year cycle, but it's a weak maximum, compared with previous maxima. It will probably have contributed a few hundredths of a degree C to the record 2014 warmth. Current aurora borealis activity suggests that it may have picked up a bit and could influence the 2015 temperature even more. Overall, the sun's activity has weakened considerably in the past several decades.
Quoting 45. VAbeachhurricanes:

I'm confused by this


So 5% Hail and Wind is Marginal.

But 10% significant Hail and Wind is nothing??
That makes no sense.
That graph makes it look like Tornado risk is the only factor that bumps a risk area into marginal and enhanced. In other words, even a 15% hail/wind chance does not take the TSTM light green to dark green-marginal or the yellow to gold-enhanced. That's interesting. So...

...for example, in this coming Wednesday's weather, I have a slight risk now. And, if the risk of tornadoes goes up to 10%, I'll get gold-enhanced. But it would take a 30% wind or hail risk to bump my risk up to gold-enhanced.

Okay, so the two new stair-step categories use type probability in a roundabout way.

No Wait! on the Day 2 Outlook graphic chart, all I need is a combined 30% tor, wind and hail. I still have a chance for gold-enchanced risk tomorrow on the basis of wind/hail. BUT Wednesday that risk could drop back to yellow if the storms are expected to be high based?

Oooookaaaay. Maybe continue using the three old standards, slight, moderate and heavy? Um, High. :)
Quoting 45. VAbeachhurricanes:

I'm confused by this


So 5% Hail and Wind is Marginal.

But 10% significant Hail and Wind is nothing??
That makes no sense.

10% is not used for hail and wind. It goes from 5% to 15%.
Quoting 46. georgevandenberghe:



I'm just young enough not to have learned to use a slide rule. About the time I needed square roots and transcendental functions, scientific calculators came out. I actually needed square roots for about six months before I got a square root calculator but I knew the method of bisection to find roots and it was fast on my mother's elementary four function calculator used to keep finances.


The bisection method isn't very fast for finding approximations to irrational square roots. Here's a method that I came up with a few years ago (it's equivalent to Newton's Method, but I think that it's clearer as to why it works):

As an example, suppose that we want an approximation for the square root of 2, call it "S" for short. We start with the closest whole number to S, in this case 1 (either of the two whole numbers on either side of S, 1 or 2, will do though - you can check for these numbers by squaring each of them and confirming that the results are less than and greater than 2: 1 X 1 = 1 which is less than 2 and 2 X 2 = 4 which is greater than 2). I'm assuming that the number whose square root is being sought is not a perfect square.

We start with S - 1 = E, where 1 is our initial estimate for S, and E is the error in that estimate. Because 0 < E < 1, repeatedly squaring E will result in a sequence of numbers that are approaching 0.

Squaring both sides of S - 1 = E, we get S^2 - 2 S [plus sign] 1 = E^2. Recalling that S^2 = 2, and simplifying, we get 3 - 2 S = E^2. Replacing E with 0, and solving for S gives the approximation for S of 3/2.

Squaring both sides of 3 - 2 S = E^2, and simplifying as above, we get 17 - 12 S = E^4. Replacing E with 0, and solving for S gives the approximation for S of 17/12.

We don't need to keep track of the power of E each time, or even include the E. Squaring only the left side each time, and then equating the result to 0 each time, gives successively better approximations to S.

NOTE: Editing messed up a lot of this post due to a blog glitch, but I fixed that.


Tampa Bay area. Looking forward to the cool down next weekend.
Quoting 53. tampabaymatt:




Not sure why the WPC predicted so much rain with this recent front moving through, seems to me the next front will be much more impressive rainfall coverage wise than this one was. Upper support was very weak and limited so I wasn't surprised to see the activity collapse down there. The system later this week though however should bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms, a much better shot at the area seeing good rain totals. I don't think it will be nearly enough to make up for the March deficit though.

This is a good example of why I've reminded Scott to take the CFS forecasts heavily with a grain of salt. The CFS had basically all of Florida with significantly above average precip for March, in reality it's been precisely the opposite, significantly below normal.

I'm not saying such forecasts are useless, just that their accuracy isn't exactly reliable, lol.
Thank you, for the info. Mr Henson.
Quoting 57. Jedkins01:



Not sure why the WPC predicted so much rain with this recent front moving through, seems to me the next front will be much more impressive rainfall coverage wise than this one was. Upper support was very weak and limited so I wasn't surprised to see the activity collapse down there. The system later this week though however should bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms, a much better shot at the area seeing good rain totals. I don't think it will be nearly enough to make up for the March deficit though.

This is a good example of why I've reminded Scott to take the CFS forecasts heavily with a grain of salt. The CFS had basically all of Florida with significantly above average precip for March, in reality it's been precisely the opposite, significantly below normal.

I'm not saying such forecasts are useless, just that their accuracy isn't exactly reliable, lol.


It seems like every time Scott posts one of those CFS precip forecasts, FL is always covered in blue. Not to say it's inaccurate or useless, but I questioned it on here a few days ago also because it seems to always show FL will be way above average precip wise, each and every month.
Busted forecast for Melbourne today. Called for 60% chance of rain. Got nadda!
Quoting 42. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'd be wary of saying things like this unless you've double checked with reports to be sure. Just because you're in the tornado warning doesn't mean you're in the direct path of the twister, and just because you're not in the direct path of the twister doesn't mean someone else isn't. So, in the end, just because you weren't hit by a twister doesn't mean someone else wasn't.


I think sometimes people confuse tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings with hurricane warnings. If a forecast path is correct, people will see damage throughout most of the hurricane warning area. However because people personalize things, sadly if people don't see damage after a severe thunderstorm warning or a tornado warning they assume it was a false alarm even though the very nature of such events actually only impact a small amount of people.

The sad thing is, when people say such things, why don't they stop and think that even if there was no damage anywhere after the warning, that maybe the thunderstorm showed the signs of warning so the warning was issued out of safety?

The NWS does in fact do this, it's much smarter to issue a warning if there is any real chance of damage, rather than blow off something that isn't for sure causing damage. Sadly though, people are much quicker to criticize apparent faults whether they exist or not, rather than appreciating warnings in case damage really does hit home.

Quoting 60. hurricanewatcher61:

Busted forecast for Melbourne today. Called for 60% chance of rain. Got nadda!


Nope. They predicted a 40% chance you would get no rain... Where's the busted forecast?


Interesting to see the storms pop up in N C FL despite all the dry air aloft moving in.
Quoting 59. tampabaymatt:



It seems like every time Scott posts one of those CFS precip forecasts, FL is always covered in blue. Not to say it's inaccurate or useless, but I questioned it on here a few days ago also because it seems to always show FL will be way above average precip wise, each and every month.


Along similar lines, I wish I had a dollar for every time the Weather Channel has showed our 5-day forecast as having a rainy day in it, only for that rainy day to disappear from the forecast as we get to "the night before." My motto on SW FL rainfall is, "I'll believe it when I hear it roaring down on my roof!"
Quoting 59. tampabaymatt:



It seems like every time Scott posts one of those CFS precip forecasts, FL is always covered in blue. Not to say it's inaccurate or useless, but I questioned it on here a few days ago also because it seems to always show FL will be way above average precip wise, each and every month.


Well to be fair, going back to September, a lot of Florida has seen at or above average rainfall really except for just December and now March, so the model may have been at least partly right since rainfall has been plentiful overall in most other months in recent times. Although none of the months have seen widespread well above normal precip from I can remember except November and September, so it probably has overdone things overall.

With that being said, the model is probably overly sensitive to El Nino signals, as it's forecast looked to resemble precip patterns of unusually strong El Nino events.
Quoting 64. OrchidGrower:



Along similar lines, I wish I had a dollar for every time the Weather Channel has showed our 5-day forecast as having a rainy day in it, only for that rainy day to disappear from the forecast as we get to "the night before." My motto on SW FL rainfall is, "I'll believe it when I hear it roaring down on my roof!"


SW Florida is weird, it's more like the India monsoon compared to rest of Florida. It's not like there isn't a dry and rainy season in the other parts of the state, but rainfall patterns seem to indicate that the difference between the seasons is more noticeably more dramatic down there.
Quoting 64. OrchidGrower:



Along similar lines, I wish I had a dollar for every time the Weather Channel has showed our 5-day forecast as having a rainy day in it, only for that rainy day to disappear from the forecast as we get to "the night before." My motto on SW FL rainfall is, "I'll believe it when I hear it roaring down on my roof!"


As long as it doesn't come in with a hurricane behind it... Careful what you wish for... I can remember wishing for rain and then it started and wouldn't stop.

I think Washi did that one year for snow. Wanted a white XMAS and then was complaining because she really didn't want snow all the way to memorial day...
Quoting 60. hurricanewatcher61:

Busted forecast for Melbourne today. Called for 60% chance of rain. Got nadda!


You mean STS missed this one? This morning he forecasted that some areas in Central FL would see as much as 3".
Quoting 55. DCSwithunderscores:



The bisection method isn't very fast for finding approximations to irrational square roots. Here's a method that I came up with a few years ago (it's equivalent to Newton's Method, but I think that it's clearer as to why it works):

As an example, suppose that we want an approximation for the square root of 2, call it "S" for short. We start with the closest whole number to S, in this case 1 (either of the two whole numbers on either side of S, 1 or 2, will do though - you can check for these numbers by squaring each of them and confirming that the results are less than and greater than 2: 1 X 1 = 1 which is less than 2 and 2 X 2 = 4 which is greater than 2). I'm assuming that the number whose square root is being sought is not a perfect square.

We start with S - 1 = E, where 1 is our initial estimate for S, and E is the error in that estimate. Because 0 < E < 1, repeatedly squaring E will result in a sequence of numbers that are approaching 0.

Squaring both sides of S - 1 = E, we get S^2 - 2 S [plus sign] 1 = E^2. Recalling that S^2 = 2, and simplifying, we get 3 - 2 S = E^2. Replacing E with 0, and solving for S gives the approximation for S of 3/2.

Squaring both sides of 3 - 2 S = E^2, and simplifying as above, we get 17 - 12 S = E^4. Replacing E with 0, and solving for S gives the approximation for S of 17/12.

We don't need to keep track of the power of E each time, or even include the E. Squaring only the left side each time, and then equating the result to 0 each time, gives successively better approximations to S.

NOTE: Editing messed up a lot of this post due to a blog glitch, but I fixed that.


Thanks. I learned about Newtons method in precalculus just after I got a scientific calculator whereas I'd known about the method of bisection for about eight months prior from outside reading when I needed to find a square root and didn't have a table of logarithms handy.

On another pedagogical tangent, I learned Cramers rule for solving systems of equations in high school but it scales very poorly and gaussian elimination is better even by hand.
Quoting 67. Dakster:



As long as it doesn't come in with a hurricane behind it... Careful what you wish for... I can remember wishing for rain and then it started and wouldn't stop.

I think Washi did that one year for snow. Wanted a white XMAS and then was complaining because she really didn't want snow all the way to memorial day...


That was the winter of 2013-2014 I believe. 2009-10 got more snow (record for here) but the last one was Feb 11-12 and spring 2010 was near record warm (spring 2012 was record smashing warmer) The last snow of spring 2014 was April 15, most areas got a trace to a coating but a small area north of Baltimore
got several inches.

Quoting Jedkins01:


Well to be fair, going back to September, a lot of Florida has seen at or above average rainfall really except for just December and now March, so the model may have been at least partly right since rainfall has been plentiful overall in most other months in recent times. Although none of the months have seen widespread well above normal precip from I can remember except November and September, so it probably has overdone things overall.

With that being said, the model is probably overly sensitive to El Nino signals, as it's forecast looked to resemble precip patterns of unusually strong El Nino events.


I know that El Nino impacts us more here on the West Coast during the winter months, does it impact our normal summertime weather pattern?
Quoting DCSwithunderscores:


The bisection method isn't very fast for finding approximations to irrational square roots. Here's a method that I came up with a few years ago (it's equivalent to Newton's Method, but I think that it's clearer as to why it works):

As an example, suppose that we want an approximation for the square root of 2, call it "S" for short. We start with the closest whole number to S, in this case 1 (either of the two whole numbers on either side of S, 1 or 2, will do though - you can check for these numbers by squaring each of them and confirming that the results are less than and greater than 2: 1 X 1 = 1 which is less than 2 and 2 X 2 = 4 which is greater than 2). I'm assuming that the number whose square root is being sought is not a perfect square.

We start with S - 1 = E, where 1 is our initial estimate for S, and E is the error in that estimate. Because 0 < E < 1, repeatedly squaring E will result in a sequence of numbers that are approaching 0.

Squaring both sides of S - 1 = E, we get S^2 - 2 S [plus sign] 1 = E^2. Recalling that S^2 = 2, and simplifying, we get 3 - 2 S = E^2. Replacing E with 0, and solving for S gives the approximation for S of 3/2.

Squaring both sides of 3 - 2 S = E^2, and simplifying as above, we get 17 - 12 S = E^4. Replacing E with 0, and solving for S gives the approximation for S of 17/12.

We don't need to keep track of the power of E each time, or even include the E. Squaring only the left side each time, and then equating the result to 0 each time, gives successively better approximations to S.

NOTE: Editing messed up a lot of this post due to a blog glitch, but I fixed that.


You lost me at "The":)
Past 90 days
Most locations in Florida has seen below average precipitation.
There are the exceptions across central Florida and parts of the Panhandle along with some smaller isolated locations around the state.

Quoting 55. DCSwithunderscores:



The bisection method isn't very fast for finding approximations to irrational square roots. Here's a method that I came up with a few years ago (it's equivalent to Newton's Method, but I think that it's clearer as to why it works):

As an example, suppose that we want an approximation for the square root of 2, call it "S" for short. We start with the closest whole number to S, in this case 1 (either of the two whole numbers on either side of S, 1 or 2, will do though - you can check for these numbers by squaring each of them and confirming that the results are less than and greater than 2: 1 X 1 = 1 which is less than 2 and 2 X 2 = 4 which is greater than 2). I'm assuming that the number whose square root is being sought is not a perfect square.

We start with S - 1 = E, where 1 is our initial estimate for S, and E is the error in that estimate. Because 0 < E < 1, repeatedly squaring E will result in a sequence of numbers that are approaching 0.

Squaring both sides of S - 1 = E, we get S^2 - 2 S [plus sign] 1 = E^2. Recalling that S^2 = 2, and simplifying, we get 3 - 2 S = E^2. Replacing E with 0, and solving for S gives the approximation for S of 3/2.

Squaring both sides of 3 - 2 S = E^2, and simplifying as above, we get 17 - 12 S = E^4. Replacing E with 0, and solving for S gives the approximation for S of 17/12.

We don't need to keep track of the power of E each time, or even include the E. Squaring only the left side each time, and then equating the result to 0 each time, gives successively better approximations to S.

NOTE: Editing messed up a lot of this post due to a blog glitch, but I fixed that.





AAAAAAAAH, MATH! XD
Quoting 47. LargoFl:

a question if I may...are their less sun spots now?..The last Little ice age began with a warming then it hit..at the time sun spots had lessened...some scientists are warning we are heading down the same path...anyone know?

Despite the lowest solar cycle in more than a century temperatures have not gone down. There has been some scientific work done recently that indicates large volcanic eruptions may have been a factor in the Little Ice Age.
Quoting 73. Sfloridacat5:

Past 90 days
Most locations in Florida have seen below average precipitation.
There are the exceptions across central Florida and some smaller isolated locations around the state.




That's heavily influenced by how dry March has been though.

Quoting Jedkins01:


That's heavily influenced by how dry March has been though.



Yes, March has been below average in most areas, with the exception of the parts of the Panhandle that saw up to 5" yesterday.
Quoting 60. hurricanewatcher61:

Busted forecast for Melbourne today. Called for 60% chance of rain. Got nadda!

Maybe for your part of Melbourne. Rained for about an hour in Eau Gallie, enough I'm not watering the gardens today.

North of us got more.



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'd be wary of saying things like this unless you've double checked with reports to be sure. Just because you're in the tornado warning doesn't mean you're in the direct path of the twister, and just because you're not in the direct path of the twister doesn't mean someone else isn't. So, in the end, just because you weren't hit by a twister doesn't mean someone else wasn't.
I think I understand what FarmerKarl was saying. The vast majority of my tornado warnings are when radar has indicated a tornado rather than anyone on the ground seeing one. Some actual tornadoes still occur with no ground reports until after the tornado passes, but we have others where there are ground reports along the path. The NWS should update the warning with information that it was sighted, where it was sighted, and the path based on the sighting. I don't know what NWS policy is on this but, since I have to watch the warnings from three offices to stay updated on my locale, each office seems to handle it differently. Tallahassee is pretty good about issuing updates of tornadoes being sighted. Birmingham is much slower and sometimes never updates at all. Atlanta is somewhere in the middle. I think the dual pol radar is much better at being able to "see" an area a tornado could form, but that has also led to a higher rate of false positive warnings, so people don't pay as much attention to a warning as they might have in the past. Updating the warning with ground truth is one way to get people's attention when one is on the ground.
Someone say March has been a little dry across Florida?
Quoting Jedkins01:


Well to be fair, going back to September, a lot of Florida has seen at or above average rainfall really except for just December and now March, so the model may have been at least partly right since rainfall has been plentiful overall in most other months in recent times. Although none of the months have seen widespread well above normal precip from I can remember except November and September, so it probably has overdone things overall.

With that being said, the model is probably overly sensitive to El Nino signals, as it's forecast looked to resemble precip patterns of unusually strong El Nino events.
You may have hit on something with El Nino sensitivity. Going back to September, the QPF forecasts for SE AL have been decreasing in accuracy. You can go to the CPC verification page and run the numbers if you wish but there's no doubt the GFS (which is the base of the CPC QPF forecasts) hasn't been doing well compared to other models and even compared to how it did a year earlier. Yesterday was a good example. Three days ago, the the highest QPF (1.50"-2.30") was predicted to be over central AL, with amounts dropping off to less than half an inch by the time you got to the beach. What actually happened is the Panhandle got general rains from 1.75"-2.50" with isolated amounts up to 5.00". I ended up with 0.48", and 0.31" came from one half-hour thunderstorm. That's a pretty significant miss, especially from three days out, but it has been typical here since September.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Interesting to see the storms pop up in N C FL despite all the dry air aloft moving in.


Yup. Its a happy map. :)
From RealClimate:

What’s going on in the North Atlantic?

The North Atlantic between Newfoundland and Ireland is practically the only region of the world that has defied global warming and even cooled. Last winter there even was the coldest on record – while globally it was the hottest on record. Our recent study (Rahmstorf et al. 2015) attributes this to a weakening of the Gulf Stream System, which is apparently unique in the last thousand years.

The whole world is warming. The whole world? No! A region in the subpolar Atlantic has cooled over the past century – unique in the world for an area with reasonable data coverage (Fig. 1). So what’s so special about this region between Newfoundland and Ireland?


Fig. 1 Linear temperature trend from 1900 to 2013. The cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic is remarkable and well documented by numerous measurements – unlike the cold spot in central Africa, which on closer inspection apparently is an artifact of incomplete and inhomogeneous weather station data.

It happens to be just that area for which climate models predict a cooling when the Gulf Stream System weakens (experts speak of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation or AMOC, as part of the global thermohaline circulation). That this might happen as a result of global warming is discussed in the scientific community since the 1980s – since Wally Broecker’s classical Nature article “Unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse?” Meanwhile evidence is mounting that the long-feared circulation decline is already well underway.

Read more >>
Quoting 60. hurricanewatcher61:

Busted forecast for Melbourne today. Called for 60% chance of rain. Got nadda!


Is that poking fun at my post #21? If so, good show!
Good Evening good people. I believe we are WAY overdue for a Strong El Nino. According to the ONI or Oceanic Nino Index strong El Ninos have a 5-10 year cycle. 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1987-88, and 1997-98. Based on the ONI the 1982-83 and the 1997-98 were super strong. I believe in my humble opinion based on the data this year we will have a Strong El Nino, perhaps Super Nino.
Quoting riverat544:

Despite the lowest solar cycle in more than a century temperatures have not gone down. There has been some scientific work done recently that indicates large volcanic eruptions may have been a factor in the Little Ice Age.
Solar Cycle 24 is actually on track to have the least activity and fewest solar maxima since reliable record keeping began in 1755. Those of us in the amatuer radio community have been waiting for the maxima that was supposed to occur last year. Instead, the sun was more quiet than in typical non-maxima years. Not only have the number of sunspots been at record lows but the SME and geomagnetic activity has also been unusually low. It now looks like 2011 may have been the peak year, which is a huge disappointment after 15 years worth of the solar minima. If sunspots contribute anything higher than a trivial amount of heat to the earth's atmosphere, we should have seen strong cooling since 2011, and that obviously hasn't happened. I don't know why deniers seem to be latching on to sunspots as a cause of global warming now but the present cycle easily proves those assertions wrong.
Oh by the way, it would be awesome to witness a Super Nino with a temperature anomaly of +3 degrees. That never happened before. The 1997-98 got to about +2.4 degrees. All heck would break loose. Ya gotta love chaos!!!
Quoting 83. Xandra:

From RealClimate:

What’s going on in the North Atlantic?

The North Atlantic between Newfoundland and Ireland is practically the only region of the world that has defied global warming and even cooled. Last winter there even was the coldest on record – while globally it was the hottest on record. Our recent study (Rahmstorf et al. 2015) attributes this to a weakening of the Gulf Stream System, which is apparently unique in the last thousand years.

The whole world is warming. The whole world? No! A region in the subpolar Atlantic has cooled over the past century – unique in the world for an area with reasonable data coverage (Fig. 1). So what’s so special about this region between Newfoundland and Ireland?


Fig. 1 Linear temperature trend from 1900 to 2013. The cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic is remarkable and well documented by numerous measurements – unlike the cold spot in central Africa, which on closer inspection apparently is an artifact of incomplete and inhomogeneous weather station data.

It happens to be just that area for which climate models predict a cooling when the Gulf Stream System weakens (experts speak of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation or AMOC, as part of the global thermohaline circulation). That this might happen as a result of global warming is discussed in the scientific community since the 1980s – since Wally Broecker’s classical Nature article “Unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse?” Meanwhile evidence is mounting that the long-feared circulation decline is already well underway.

Read more >>



It reminds me of a special effects movie I once saw that ended up being pretty cheesy. My guess is that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases year after year will overwhelm just about every aspect of any other forcings barring a huge event. Just a guess though
Quoting WeatherConvoy:
Good Evening good people. I believe we are WAY overdue for a Strong El Nino. According to the ONI or Oceanic Nino Index strong El Ninos have a 5-10 year cycle. 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1987-88, and 1997-98. Based on the ONI the 1982-83 and the 1997-98 were super strong. I believe in my humble opinion based on the data this year we will have a Strong El Nino, perhaps Super Nino.
Except for the fact that nothing is "overdue". Cycles do not represent return periods. You are entitled to your belief but data does not support any kind of El Nino being "overdue". Read up on the Gambler's Fallacy to see why your kind of thinking is wrong when applied to El Nino.
Quoting WeatherConvoy:
Oh by the way, it would be awesome to witness a Super Nino with a temperature anomaly of +3 degrees. That never happened before. The 1997-98 got to about +2.4 degrees. All heck would break loose. Ya gotta love chaos!!!
You might find chaos is less awesome if it visits your area.
Quoting 86. sar2401:

Solar Cycle 24 is actually on track to have the least activity and fewest solar maxima since reliable record keeping began in 1755. Those of us in the amatuer radio community have been waiting for the maxima that was supposed to occur last year. Instead, the sun was more quiet than in typical non-maxima years. Not only have the number of sunspots been at record lows but the SME and geomagnetic activity has also been unusually low. It now looks like 2011 may have been the peak year, which is a huge disappointment after 15 years worth of the solar minima. If sunspots contribute anything higher than a trivial amount of heat to the earth's atmosphere, we should have seen strong cooling since 2011, and that obviously hasn't happened. I don't know why deniers seem to be latching on to sunspots as a cause of global warming now but the present cycle easily proves those assertions wrong.


Hey Sar,
Was it 2006 through 2009 being a very significant solar minimum? My years may be a little off, but spotless days ruled the years through the recent period of which I am thinking. As far as the denier crowd even mentioning "it's the sun" in a post denier-gate world seems a little, well, eye-rolling.......
Quoting luvtogolf:


I know that El Nino impacts us more here on the West Coast during the winter months, does it impact our normal summertime weather pattern?
The main summertime effects of a strong El Nino in central Florida is increased rainfall. However, a more prominent sign of El Nino is Florida is a very significant increase in severe weather from November to April. For this purpose, severe weather is 20 or more storm reports and/or an EF-2 or stronger tornado, all from the coverage area of one office. This effect extends into Alabama and Georgia, just not as significantly as in central Florida. I don't know when we'll start feeling the effects of this El Nino but, for the severe weather we've seen so far, it hasn't hit here yet.
Thanks for the Spring refresher course on the SPC changes, Bob.
Great entry-as always.

I guess the selling point for me centers around the previous use of a Day 1 10% Probability of a significant tornado being lumped in with the same "SLIGHT" Categorical Outlook used for a 15% probability (low-end) wind and or hail event.

A 1-in-10 chance of an EF2 or greater deserves some sort of...uh...er...enhanced categorical Outlook.
Quoting wartsttocs:


Hey Sar,
Was it 2006 through 2009 being a very significant solar minimum? My years may be a little off, but spotless days ruled the years through the recent period of which I am thinking. As far as the denier crowd even mentioning "it's the sun" in a post denier-gate world seems a little, well, eye-rolling.......
Yes, those dates live in infamy for ham radio. :-) 2009 was the worst, with very few long distance HF contacts and bands being dead for days at a time. We were all hoping that the Cycle 24 would redeem itself but, instead, it's turning out to be the weakest maxima ever. I really don't know a lot about these solar cycles except how they affect ham radio, but it's a little troubling looking at these cycles going back to 1955. The peak of the cycles occurred in 1958 (just before I got my first license, darn it!) and each peak since then has been below the previous peak. I don't know why these cycles are getting weaker but something's going on we don't understand yet. I don't know how anyone can look at a graph of solar cycles and say the sun has been the source of our heating.

Here's a pretty good page that shows the effects of strong, moderate, and weak El-Ninos across the U.S.

The effects (precipitation and temperature) can be quite different depending on the strength of the El-Nino event.

Link
0.79" for me today. I'll take it as it was surely needed.
So some pretty incredible snows occured today that no one seems to be mentioning. Places in Minnesota through wisconsin recieved as much as 15" of snow late last night through this morning. Even a solid 6" fell across the I-80 corridor and northwards into the Chicago area this morning.





LINK to snow totals. Looked like a lot of fun for many. :)

Quoting 2. ricderr:
...the less urgency people will feel to stay aware of their surroundings if they are in lower levels of risk


Sometimes though your luck runs out, eg your eating dinner in a strip mall and a EF5 hits you, not much you can do about that.
Quoting 83. Xandra:

From RealClimate:

What%u2019s going on in the North Atlantic?

The North Atlantic between Newfoundland and Ireland is practically the only region of the world that has defied global warming and even cooled. Last winter there even was the coldest on record %u2013 while globally it was the hottest on record. Our recent study (Rahmstorf et al. 2015) attributes this to a weakening of the Gulf Stream System, which is apparently unique in the last thousand years.

The whole world is warming. The whole world? No! A region in the subpolar Atlantic has cooled over the past century %u2013 unique in the world for an area with reasonable data coverage (Fig. 1). So what%u2019s so special about this region between Newfoundland and Ireland?


Fig. 1 Linear temperature trend from 1900 to 2013. The cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic is remarkable and well documented by numerous measurements %u2013 unlike the cold spot in central Africa, which on closer inspection apparently is an artifact of incomplete and inhomogeneous weather station data.

It happens to be just that area for which climate models predict a cooling when the Gulf Stream System weakens (experts speak of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation or AMOC, as part of the global thermohaline circulation). That this might happen as a result of global warming is discussed in the scientific community since the 1980s %u2013 since Wally Broecker%u2019s classical Nature article %u201CUnpleasant surprises in the greenhouse?%u201D Meanwhile evidence is mounting that the long-feared circulation decline is already well underway.

Read more >>



hmmmmmm.....



What is new is that we have used proxy reconstructions of large-scale surface temperature (Mann et al, 2009) previously published by one of us (study co-author and RealClimate co-founder Mike Mann) that extend back to 900 AD (see %u201CWhat we can learn from studying the last millennium (or so)%u201D) to estimate the circulation (AMOC) intensity over the entire last 1100 years (Fig. 3). This shows that despite the substantial uncertainties in the proxy reconstruction, the weakness of the flow after 1975 is unique in more than a thousand years, with at least 99 per cent probability. This strongly suggests that the weak overturning is not due to natural variability but rather a result of global warming.

Straight forward as it gets if you ask me...
http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/9d/gfs_pres_9d.gif. Good evening folks. The GFS is showing a possible severe weather event for April fools day in Central and South Florida. As Low Pressure gets energized across the warm waters of the GOM
Regarding the batboy



I saw the discussion on Sunday about the batboy graphic I use.

Yoboi 'I only post real science' posted an article from the Weekly World News about a new ice age starting by 2018 with snowstorms forecast for Jamaica by that year. I found the graphic and started using it.

As to my marketing prowess, I modestly point out that people were talking about it days after I posted ;)

Vote on my blog whether I should keep using the batboy graphic, the alternative being no graphic at all. Voting closes at Tuesday 10 p.m. my time.
For West Palm Beach...From a high of near 90 on Friday to 75 on Saturday reads nice to me!

http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/9d/gfs_pres_9d.gif
Looks like Citrus county was the big winner with just over an inch. Didn't see anything close to the 3" totals that was forecasted on here this morning.

Quoting 99. ILwthrfan:





Do I see another hockey stick?

IMWTK
106. MahFL
Quoting 97. ILwthrfan:

So some pretty incredible snows occured today that no one seems to be mentioning.


That's because the places that got the snow expect to get snow, and no one lives there...

Yikes
Regarding the political news today....only 596 days until November 8, 2016!
Quoting 101. BaltimoreBrian:

Regarding the batboy



Yoboi 'I only post real science' posted an article from the Weekly World News about a new ice age starting by 2018 with snowstorms forecast for Jamaica by that year. I found the graphic and started using it.

As to my marketing prowess, I modestly point out that people were talking about it days after I posted ;)

Vote on my blog whether I should keep using the batboy graphic, the alternative being no graphic at all. Voting closes at Tuesday 10 p.m. my time.

Got to be honest, he's a bit freaky. But since he came from Weekly World news, that explains him a bit...No alternative??? Can we, your devoted followers :P submit suggestions?
Quoting 83. Xandra:

From RealClimate:

What’s going on in the North Atlantic?



Mysterious East Coast flooding was caused by ‘unprecedented’ surge in sea level

Several years ago, in 2009 and 2010, a string of unexplained floods and unusually high tides struck the East Coast. There was no easy explanation. No hurricane. No winter storm. But the waters kept spilling across the shoreline, from North Carolina’s Cape Hatteras to Canada.

The cause of that phenomenon may now have finally been found. Sea levels from New York to Newfoundland were undergoing an “extreme” surge unlike any other in recorded history, according to a new study in Nature Communications published this week. Calling the phenomenon “unprecedented” and “very unusual,” oceans along the East Coast rose roughly four inches between 2009 and 2010 in a rapid spike researchers compared to a “1-in-850-year event.”


Link
Quoting 37. LongIslandBeaches:

Atlantis, LA

The nexus of the universe! (And a hell of a wind chill)

LOL. How did you catch that??

When I first saw Atlantis on the WU page, I wondered, 'where the heck is that', as I live in LA, and didn't know, yet it was often identified as the warmest spot in LA. Come to find out it's an offshore location.
Quoting 109. LAbonbon:


Got to be honest, he's a bit freaky. But since he came from Weekly World news, that explains him a bit...No alternative??? Can we, your devoted followers :P submit suggestions?


Sure you can! But so far the batboy is winning 7-0 on my blog ;) Your suggestion will have to overcome a big starting lead!
Quoting ILwthrfan:
So some pretty incredible snows occured today that no one seems to be mentioning. Places in Minnesota through wisconsin recieved as much as 15" of snow late last night through this morning. Even a solid 6" fell across the I-80 corridor and northwards into the Chicago area this morning.





LINK to snow totals. Looked like a lot of fun for many. :)

Pretty strange. It almost looks like the snowfall map you see with lake effect types of snow. Was that a squall line that happened to develop in the cold air or what?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Regarding the political news today....only 596 days until November 8, 2016!

Countdown anyone????????????????????????
Quoting 112. BaltimoreBrian:



Sure you can! But so far the batboy is winning 7-0 on my blog ;) Your suggestion will have to overcome a big starting lead!


I like bat boy...

And another just awesome day. Two hikes for me today as the skies are clear, the sun is shining. It's in the upper 40s which for me is perfect.

Looks like it will be this way all week...

Sorry for the heat wave Pedley... Looks like you will be needing A/C. I hope my fuel bill goes down now that it is "hot" out up here.
Quoting 113. sar2401:

Pretty strange. It almost looks like the snowfall map you see with lake effect types of snow. Was that a squall line that happened to develop in the cold air or what?

That first loop was during an 8 hour time frame this one wraps up the second half of the storm. Snows formed along the warm front which stayed steady in a nw to se orientation over a rather long stretch out ahead of the clipper

Hey folks, today (for Europeans already yesterday) is the official World Meteorological Day! Here is the poster for 2015:


Source with more info.

Here is the link to the official video, showing a colorfully dressed lady speaking. German public TV created a more entertaining video with flash backs to past forecast glitches and notable weather events.

But maybe this one below will do it as well for you in the US (weather is remarkably boring in Germany/Central Europe today - doesn't match the World Weather Day at all ;-)


Huge catnado?
Quoting LAbonbon:

LOL. How did you catch that??

When I first saw Atlantis on the WU page, I wondered, 'where the heck is that', as I live in LA, and didn't know, yet it was often identified as the warmest spot in LA. Come to find out it's an offshore location.
Looks like the data is coming from an AWOS station at the BP Green Canyon offshore rig site. The temperature there looked normal until March 21 at 2235. The station went off the air for an hour and it's been reporting -40 ever since it came back up. I guess some tech will have to climb around a few poles at the rig and figure out what's wrong.
Quoting 101. BaltimoreBrian:

Regarding the batboy



I saw the discussion on Sunday about the batboy graphic I use.

Yoboi 'I only post real science' posted an article from the Weekly World News about a new ice age starting by 2018 with snowstorms forecast for Jamaica by that year. I found the graphic and started using it.

As to my marketing prowess, I modestly point out that people were talking about it days after I posted ;)

Vote on my blog whether I should keep using the batboy graphic, the alternative being no graphic at all. Voting closes at Tuesday 10 p.m. my time.



I vote keep it!
Quoting 108. BaltimoreBrian:

Regarding the political news today....only 596 days until November 8, 2016!


This is worse than the countdown to Hurricane season 2015...
Yeah seems like that 2-3" rain didnt happen today in most of central florida. Only got 0.28" in Sanford. The rain just died as it rolled into east central florida. I dont know how STS gets the most rain in my area every time a system rolls through
Quoting barbamz:
Hey folks, today (for Europeans already yesterday) is the official World Meteorological Day! Here is the poster for 2015:


Source with more info.

Here is the link to the official video, showing a colorfully dressed lady speaking. German Met Service created a more entertaining video with flash backs to past forecast glitches and notable weather events.

But maybe this one below will do it as well for you in the US (weather is remarkably boring in Germany/Central Europe today - doesn't match the World Weather Day at all ;-)


Huge catnado?
He he....catnado. My fiance thought that one was cute. She never uses that word for other weather. :-)
Quoting ILwthrfan:

That first loop was during an 8 hour time frame this one wraps up the second half of the storm. Snows formed along the warm front which stayed steady in a nw to se orientation over a rather long stretch out ahead of the clipper

I'll be darned. Did the snow actually get predicted accurately? That seems like a good chance for a major bust.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



I vote keep it!
I do too. Sometimes, when I'm trying to read the blog late at night, batboy is the only thing that will wake me up. :-)
Quoting 123. sar2401:

I'll be darned. Did the snow actually get predicted accurately? That seems like a good chance for a major bust.

Actually they had it pegged for 2-4" locally higher 2 days out. Then 24 hours out a narrow 3-6", then by the storm was occuring they bumped it to 4-8" with locally higher. the 15" totals are really surprising, but they nailed the location. Just under estimated the amounts a tad. Most areas reported 6", but there was a very narrow swath of a foot plus. Pretty cool stuff.
Quoting sanflee76:
Yeah seems like that 2-3" rain didnt happen today in most of central florida. Only got 0.28" in Sanford. The rain just died as it rolled into east central florida. I dont know how STS gets the most rain in my area every time a system rolls through
Not knowing what kind of weather station he has it's hard to say. All the other PWS around Longwood, Apopka, and Altamonte Springs are reporting 0.35" to 0.45" so it seems like a pretty good bet there wasn't any heavier rain there. I was only saved from a complete bust by an isolated area of thunderstorms that developed on the tail end of the front that gave me a quick 0.31". I would have only had 0.17" total if not for that one cell. It seems like SE Alabama is a pretty good proxy for central Florida when there's a NE-SW oriented front like we had today. If I don't get much, you're not getting much. That changes if there are some good conditions for thunderstorms. They develop into much better organized bands there than I usually see here. What happened today was just a fairly weak front without much convection, so I wouldn't expect more than about half an inch anywhere.
Quoting ILwthrfan:

Actually they had it pegged for 2-4" locally higher 2 days out. Then 24 hours out a narrow 3-6", then by the storm was occuring they bumped it to 4-8" with locally higher. the 15" totals are really surprising, but they nailed the location. Just under estimated the amounts a tad. Most areas reported 6", but there was a very narrow swath of a foot plus. Pretty cool stuff.
Yeah, pretty strange. They did well to even correctly forecast the areas that would get snow, since it looks like most of the area either got nothing or a dusting. I'd be amazed if they could predict those isolated maximums. The lake effect snow was so common and so relatively predictable that you could just extrapolate the snow at the airport as a proxy for the rest of the area. If Cleveland Hopkins got two inches, Chagrin Falls would get four to five inches, and Chardon would get six to eight inches. I don't guess there's a lot of precedent for predicting a snow like that one.
Quoting 115. Dakster:



I like bat boy...

And another just awesome day. Two hikes for me today as the skies are clear, the sun is shining. It's in the upper 40s which for me is perfect.

Looks like it will be this way all week...

Sorry for the heat wave Pedley... Looks like you will be needing A/C. I hope my fuel bill goes down now that it is "hot" out up here.


AC?, I almost never use my AC. Hello water cooler, But my AC is fixed and is there for backup....
Quoting 122. sar2401:

He he....catnado. My fiance thought that one was cute. She never uses that word for other weather. :-)

Hey Sar, and greeting to your lady. Glad she was ravished :-)

BTW here is an awesome video of our European solar eclipse - though far north in Norway where the darkening was total and temperatures dropped significantly. Gloooomy!


Hamferd - Deydir vardar (live during the solar eclipse in The Faroe Islands, March 20th 2015): Video and music recorded live on March 20th 2015 during the total eclipse above the village of Kvivik in The Faroe Islands.
The song is about a man who searches for his lost son in the mountainous Faroese wilderness.

Guy on youtube (Kenneth Jorgensen) provided a rough translation of the lyrics. Somehow weather related, so I hope mods will tolerate the post:

Cold is this new night,
I swallow the day's frozen dew,
Nothing can be seen and can be felt
The grey light brings no release.

Suddenly I can not see you,
And I knew not where you were,
Suddenly I took a stepped of the path
And the mist took you
I saw my broken shadow swallowed by the mud
I saw no cairns where they were.

Punishment for my weakness
Punishment for my cold heart.
Payment for self-serving goals
Payment for scars on a beautiful soul.

Suddenly I can not see you,
And I knew not where you were,
Suddenly I took a stepped of the path
And the mist took you
I saw my broken shadow swallowed by the mud
I saw no cairns where they were.

You all alone
Where are you now
Are you lost like me?
The nights darkness surrounds me
But without you I will not leave

Choir of the storm
Beasts of the fog
Gather around me
Swallow your tracks

You all alone
Where are you now
Are you lost like me?
The nights darkness surrounds me
But without you I will not leave.


Good night!
Quoting 128. PedleyCA:



AC?, I almost never use my AC. Hello water cooler, But my AC is fixed and is there for backup....


That's right you have an evap...

See if you get rain those don't work.
Quoting 101. BaltimoreBrian:

Regarding the batboy



I saw the discussion on Sunday about the batboy graphic I use.

Yoboi 'I only post real science' posted an article from the Weekly World News about a new ice age starting by 2018 with snowstorms forecast for Jamaica by that year. I found the graphic and started using it.

As to my marketing prowess, I modestly point out that people were talking about it days after I posted ;)

Vote on my blog whether I should keep using the batboy graphic, the alternative being no graphic at all. Voting closes at Tuesday 10 p.m. my time.
You can post a graphic of the Easter Bunny or Bigfoot naked..keep the great articles coming Brian!! Really appreciate them.
Quoting 126. sar2401:
Not knowing what kind of weather station he has it's hard to say. All the other PWS around Longwood, Apopka, and Altamonte Springs are reporting 0.35" to 0.45" so it seems like a pretty good bet there wasn't any heavier rain there. I was only saved from a complete bust by an isolated area of thunderstorms that developed on the tail end of the front that gave me a quick 0.31". I would have only had 0.17" total if not for that one cell. It seems like SE Alabama is a pretty good proxy for central Florida when there's a NE-SW oriented front like we had today. If I don't get much, you're not getting much. That changes if there are some good conditions for thunderstorms. They develop into much better organized bands there than I usually see here. What happened today was just a fairly weak front without much convection, so I wouldn't expect more than about half an inch anywhere.


What are people talking about as I got .51" which is on par with other stations near me. We had a cell come thru at 5:50am and dropped .36" in 8 minutes. Heck before today I only had 0.04 for March so what's the big deal as others weren't complaining when I got 0.00 in the bucket earlier in the month when 1.5" fell 3 miles east of me toward lake Mary. I think some are trolling the blog to get a response.
Quoting 121. sanflee76:
Yeah seems like that 2-3" rain didnt happen today in most of central florida. Only got 0.28" in Sanford. The rain just died as it rolled into east central florida. I dont know how STS gets the most rain in my area every time a system rolls through


The 2" to 3" was what the HRRR model was showing which is usally very accurate but obivously wasn't today.
134. 882MB
Hello to the best family on Wunderground. I see we have 98W. Very healthy looking disturbance though, GFS and ECMWF keep it on a westerly course, GFS keeps it weak until it passes south of Guam, then strengthens it prior to making landfall in about 7 to 8 days in the Philippines, on the other hand ECMWF has it strengthening, before passing south of Guam but only slightly, then weakens it by the time it reaches the Philippines. Both models keep it at or below minimal Tropical Storm strength. Different opinions between both models. Now my opinion, just like Bavi, from last week, conditions are still not that favorable in this part of the world, also I don't trust models after 5 or 6 days, unless there very consistent but even then we have had our surprises. Anyways like I always do, I will see how this disturbance behaves.





Quoting 114. 62901IL:

Countdown anyone????????????????????????


It can't come fast enough IMO.
Quoting 135. StormTrackerScott:



It can't come fast enough IMO.


I thought you usually got criticized for the opposite.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



Riled Herpetologists Press Obama Administration to Protect America's Salamanders from a Fungal Threat

By Land and Sea, Curacao Seeks to Sustain Its Coral Bounty


Rosetta's comet is spinning down


* Climate change 'biggest threat' to National Trust land (UK)




* Threat to marine life adds to California's woes



*** Pakistan's changing weather patterns threaten harvests

Pakistan's official population clock (updated daily)

*** Atlantic Ocean overturning, responsible for mild climate in northwestern Europe, is slowing

*** Ocean circulation changing: Ten years of ocean monitoring uncovers secrets of changing UK winters

!!! Colliding stars explain enigmatic 17th century explosion




* Best look yet at 'warm dense matter' at cores of giant planets




!!! Wandering Jupiter accounts for our strange solar system

A graphene solution for microwave interference

Graphene: from a wonder material to the application in mobile communication


Squid-inspired 'invisibility stickers' could help soldiers evade detection in the dark


Have researchers discovered the sound of the stars?

* Did a volcanic cataclysm 40,000 years ago trigger the final demise of the Neanderthals?



Archaean virus: Surviving in hostile territory

Mathematicians solve 60-year old 'Fermi-Pasta-Ulam' problem

!!! There are basically two big forests left, say scientists

Ted Cruz: Can a climate change skeptic win in 2016? (with video)

* One surprising downside of marijuana legalization: major energy use

*** Hydrogen Bomb Physicist's Book Runs Afoul of Energy Department

The Waves of the Future May Bend Around Metamaterials

!!! With New Nonstick Coating, the Wait, and Waste, Is Over



Laurence Tribe, Obama's legal mentor, attacks EPA power plant rule

Jerry Brown: Ted Cruz 'absolutely unfit to be running for office'

Can Cruz win the oil primary?

Archaeologists discover Maya 'melting pot'


!!! Wild African elephants on verge of extinction, say experts

*** China's top weather official warns about climate change
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


What are people talking about as I got .51" which is on par with other stations near me. We had a cell come thru at 5:50am and dropped .36" in 8 minutes. Heck before today I only had 0.04 for March so what's the big deal as others weren't complaining when I got 0.00 in the bucket earlier in the month when 1.5" fell 3 miles east of me toward lake Mary. I think some are trolling the blog to get a response.






hey scott look at nino 1 and 2 and has really gone up




same for nino 3




we may hit super EL nino this summer





nevere mind them clowns on dr m blog i love your EL nino post
Baltimore Brian - I have a response to the article titled "Did a volcanic cataclysm 40,000 years ago trigger the final demise of the Neanderthals?".

The answer is NO, some of them are currently serving in Congress at the moment.
Quoting 138. Tazmanian:






hey scott look at nino 1 and 2 and has really gone up




same for nino 3




we may hit super EL nino this summer





nevere mind them clowns on dr m blog i love your EL nino post


Taz, you know me I don't care what anyone thinks. What seperates greatness from those not so great is I am not a follower.
141. yoboi
Quoting 101. BaltimoreBrian:

Regarding the batboy



I saw the discussion on Sunday about the batboy graphic I use.

Yoboi 'I only post real science' posted an article from the Weekly World News about a new ice age starting by 2018 with snowstorms forecast for Jamaica by that year. I found the graphic and started using it.

As to my marketing prowess, I modestly point out that people were talking about it days after I posted ;)

Vote on my blog whether I should keep using the batboy graphic, the alternative being no graphic at all. Voting closes at Tuesday 10 p.m. my time.


I would say keep it brian.....Reminds me of someone shouting doom & gloom....
Quoting 140. StormTrackerScott:



Taz, you know me I don't care what anyone thinks. What seperates greatness from those not so great is I am not a follower.

I just don't know how to respond to this.
Quoting 142. ACSeattle:

I just don't know how to respond to this.


I got baking soda, I got baking soda
Quoting 139. Dakster:
Baltimore Brian - I have a response to the article titled "Did a volcanic cataclysm 40,000 years ago trigger the final demise of the Neanderthals?".

The answer is NO, some of them are currently serving in Congress at the moment.


and one of'm is my governor
145. beell
Quoting 144. aquak9:



and one of'm is my governor


sup, doggie...you called?
Quoting 144. aquak9:



and one of'm is my governor



That's an insult.... to Neanderthals!
Quoting 144. aquak9:



and one of'm is my governor


I disagree... A neanderthal has more compassion, morals, and ethics.
Just for fun

Funner

Quoting 148. BaltimoreBrian:

Just for fun





There'd be riots if that happened!
Quoting 149. BaltimoreBrian:

Funner



no
Quoting 97. ILwthrfan:

So some pretty incredible snows occured today that no one seems to be mentioning.

Yeah, it looks like there is going to be 6-8 inches of snow in the North and Central Oregon Cascades at the pass levels. Unfortunately it's falling on mostly bare ground rather than the 3-6 feet (or more) of packed snow that would normally be there. It's supposed to be warmer toward the end of the week so it might all be gone in a week or so.
Quoting 148. BaltimoreBrian:

Just for fun


??!!!
Max, Worcester needs their chance to have their snowiest season too! ;)
Quoting 150. TimTheWxMan:




There'd be riots if that happened!


That'd be what, super snow storm Zues or something like that?
Quoting 154. BaltimoreBrian:

Max, Worcester needs their chance to have their snowiest season too! ;)

I don't think they look forward to that Mr.
I want to wear shorts outside pretty soon :)
Quoting 156. MaxWeather:

I don't think they look forward to that Mr.
I want to wear shorts outside pretty soon :)
On the topic of the new categories for severe weather risk, to me 'enhanced' sounds more dangerous than 'moderate'. Not the other way around.

If you didn't know much about weather, which sounds more dangerous? Moderate or enhanced?
I think Cody needs to calculate how much ACE Nathan has had.
Tomorrow I'll post blog updates throughout the day as we see our first severe weather event this spring. Will be there a tornado this month? We'll have to wait and see!
Quoting 159. BaltimoreBrian:

I think Cody needs to calculate how much ACE Nathan has had.

I'll do that tomorrow. :)
Quoting 161. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'll do that tomorrow. :)
164. vis0
This  zonal flow has 3-5 days to work with a NATURALLY  powered down ml-d influence , hence all RRRs are weaker by 66% starting yesterday/today and will be back at 50% of strength by ~next Sat/Sunday (More precip. afterwards? who knows as not including natures next wxtrend?, as i know not that, which begins 14(~+3 days) from yesterday eve. It could be back to a strong RRRr in the west or not, lets observe) What good is this info? Imagine if Models knew of these "2WkAnioms" they could adjust according;ly or maybe European Models knows this, i sent in 2010 Aug-Sept.  NOAA , Japan & Europe to observe these period, only Japan replied with what looked like an auto-reply thank you they'll research it.

Again all signs even the period of the year FOR THE WESTERN UsOfA points towards drier weather but since the ml-d is ON then things change as its a powered down period for the ml-d (via the natural sequence of what i call "2WkAnoms" so weather flows reacts accordingly in which the RRR (tri Rs or quad Rs) relaxes and in turn moisture flows in a zonal pattern till this weekend)

News Bolt Brian was it necessary to have the asteroid in Australia update over the toilet seat (looks like) monster update?

Tell us unkie Gro how was it as a pet?

(remember i place at least 2 links to each story if political i place links as to 2 points of view from professionals at to the story's subject)

Quoting 101. BaltimoreBrian:

Regarding the batboy



I saw the discussion on Sunday about the batboy graphic I use.

Yoboi 'I only post real science' posted an article from the Weekly World News about a new ice age starting by 2018 with snowstorms forecast for Jamaica by that year. I found the graphic and started using it.

As to my marketing prowess, I modestly point out that people were talking about it days after I posted ;)

Vote on my blog whether I should keep using the batboy graphic, the alternative being no graphic at all. Voting closes at Tuesday 10 p.m. my time.



Dude keep it. I love seeing it and your mostly relevent and good articles to read through. I appreciate it.
Quoting 149. BaltimoreBrian:

Funner




Right because Florida will be colder than further north, freezing temps in interior Central Florida? That might be the biggest BS I've ever seen from the GFS, lol.
Quoting 166. Jedkins01:

Right because Florida will be colder than further north, freezing temps in interior Central Florida? That might be the biggest BS I've ever seen from the GFS, lol.
Not surprisingly, the NWS has trended a few degrees warmer for overnight lows Friday and Saturday during the post-frontal CAA. I still think we're going to end up on the warmer side in the end. Those hoping for an uber cold outbreak penetrating to the Gulf Coast are probably going to be disappointed. It's almost April, not January.
Good morning. Currently there are a lot of strong thunderstorms with heavy rain in Northwestern Africa (Algeria, Tunesia, Libya):


Saved pic. Here a live loop.

Good morning.

Apart from GFS, ECMWF also develops 98W and threats the Phillipines but is stil far in time that changes can occur.

Behold.



I am in the marginal risk today. 5% wind and hail.

Tommorow? 15% probalistic.
Quoting barbamz:
Hey folks, today (for Europeans already yesterday) is the official World Meteorological Day! Here is the poster for 2015:


Source with more info.

Here is the link to the official video, showing a colorfully dressed lady speaking. German public TV created a more entertaining video with flash backs to past forecast glitches and notable weather events.

But maybe this one below will do it as well for you in the US (weather is remarkably boring in Germany/Central Europe today - doesn't match the World Weather Day at all ;-)


Huge catnado?


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


The timing of the front "could" reduce the chance of severe weather/tornadoes. Front seems to peak around 00z while crossing central Oklahoma.
Euro has a massive storm in the Gulf next Wednesday into Thursday. Basically if this verifies any hope for severe weather across the Midwest will be slim to non as the severe weather would be focused on FL. The wind fields on the Euro are crazy.



I can't post precip image due to copy right issues but you can make out what appears to be a massive squall line in the Gulf coming into FL next Wednesday evening.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Euro has a massive storm in the Gulf next Wednesday into Thursday. Basically if this verifies any hope for severe weather across the Midwest will be slim to non as the severe weather would be focused on FL. The wind fields on the Euro are crazy.





The models (especially the GFS) have really moved the low to the north.
For the past week the GFS had the low crossing the central GOM and going right into central Florida.
Now the GFS brings the low across the S.E. (major change).

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I can't post precip image due to copy right issues but you can make out what appears to be a massive squall line in the Gulf coming into FL next Wednesday evening.



That's a week out and will change many times. What happened to the up to 3" you said some would get yesterday?
Quoting 179. jrweatherman:



That's a week out and will change many times. What happened to the up to 3" you said some would get yesterday?


First off I never said we WOULD get 3" of rain but what I did say is the HRRR model was showing 1.5" to 3" of rain from Tampa to Orlando and fact is it was. Did it pan out no but that model has been right with nearly every rain event across FL this year so yes it was wrong this time around. You can go back and pull up my post if you wish. Secondly yes I did post a long range model going out 9 days which shows a major Gulf storm coming across FL and up the SE Coast. Did I say it would happen NO I just posted the model an there is nothing wrong with that. So with that said I would go to a blog and look at a blank screen as that would make you happier as you wouldn't have to see anymore long range models as it irks you. Maybe a personal pan pizza to boot for you.
Quoting 178. Sfloridacat5:



The models (especially the GFS) have really moved the low to the north.
For the past week the GFS had the low crossing the central GOM and going right into central Florida.
Now the GFS brings the low across the S.E. (major change).




Euro has been consistant in showing a active southern jet going into April so I suspect we in FL are in for a very active month. I think many are hoping for something across Tornado Alley but we might have to wait until the end of April or May to really get severe weather season going.
Quoting 181. StormTrackerScott:



Euro has been consistant in showing a active southern jet going into April so I suspect we in FL are in for a very active month. I think many are hoping for something across Tornado Alley but we might have to wait until the end of April or May to really get severe weather season going.


In order to ascertain a pattern change, you need more than just the Euro. It's not a demigod.
Quoting 182. KoritheMan:



In order to ascertain a pattern change, you need more than just the Euro. It's not a demigod.


No its not but it makes sense with El-Nino strengthening especially as we get into April the southern jet is only going to get that much more active. So I suspect Tornado Season is going to get off to a very slow start maybe not kick in until late April.

You can see my point below any severe weather is likely going to focused across the South as El-Nino strengthens toward moderate category come June.

April


May
HRRR Model favors development across N.E. Oklahoma into Missouri later today/tonight.


Quoting 140. StormTrackerScott:



Taz, you know me I don't care what anyone thinks. What seperates greatness from those not so great is I am not a follower.
What greatness, all I see on here is other peoples work being copied or repeated. Their is only one or maybe two people on this blog who are actually capable of truly understanding some of the dynamics of the weather, one is the Author, and the other is a poster who makes an appearance every now and then.
Quoting 142. ACSeattle:


I just don't know how to respond to this.
I do and did.
GFS shows highs of 60 Saturday for Orlando with lows in the low to mid 40's

Saturday


Saturday Night


These models have shown this since this time last week. They never wavered once.
Good Morning. Here is the NWS weather headline for today and the short-term discussion from WPC:


Severe weather possible for parts of central, southern U.S.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening across parts of the central and southern U.S., from the east-central and southern Plains across the Ozark Plateau and into mid-Mississippi Valley. The greatest risk will be across parts of northeastern OK, northwestern AR and central and southern MO, with wind and hail and the main threats. 

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2015

Valid 12Z Tue Mar 24 2015 - 12Z Thu Mar 26 2015

...Wintry precipitation expected from North Dakota eastward to the Great
Lakes...

...Severe weather is possible across the Southern Plains into the Ozarks...

...A threat for flash flooding exists over the Ozarks Wednesday evening
through Thursday morning...


Over the course of the period, the upper flow will gradually become more
amplified in nature as a deep trough begins to encompass the center of the
country. By Thursday morning a pair of ridges will set up across the
Western U.S. and Western Atlantic, respectively. The overall weather
pattern is expected to be active with a winter storm forecast to affect
the northern tier of the country. This system will move in two parts with
light snowfall accumulations expected over North Dakota into the Upper
Midwest as the initial upper trough crosses the region late Tuesday night.
Meanwhile, the more dynamic feature will strengthen markedly while
migrating toward the Lower Great Lakes by early Wednesday morning.
Moderate to heavy snows are likely just to the north and west of the
surface low which will spread any where from 4 to 6 inches of snow across
the Upper Great Lakes. Freezing rain is also possible across the entire
Great Lakes region as milder air just above the subfreezing surface layer
invades from the south.

A rather potent cold front moving into the Southern Plains and Ozarks will
set the stages for organized convection the next couple of days. While
rainfall is expected along much of the frontal zone, it appears there will
be enough instability across the aforementioned regions to promote severe
thunderstorm activity. The Storm Prediction Center has this region
highlighted in its convective outlook through Thursday morning given the
favorable conditions for severe weather. Additionally, flash flooding is a
possibility across sections of the Ozarks given heavy rainfall which may
repeat over similar areas on Wednesday evening through the following
morning.

Wet conditions will prevail during the next couple of days across the
Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West. A series of impulses
tracking across the region will help spawn a broad axis of precipitation,
much of it snow across the higher elevations. The WPC winter weather desk
expects the heaviest accumulations across the Tetons and Bighorns where 6
to 8 inches are likely through early Thursday. Conditions should gradually
improve toward the end of the forecast period as an upper ridge builds
overhead.

In terms of temperatures, it should be quite warm ahead of the strong cold
front moving through the center of the U.S. This is rather noticeable
across much of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys where temperatures should
drop 15 to 20 degrees as cool, Canadian air works its way in from the
north and west.

Euro is a little warmer with 68 during the day Saturday and 52 at night about 8 degrees warmer than the GFS and the Euro is likely correct. Euro also never dips Miami below 80.
Quoting 183. StormTrackerScott:



No its not but it makes sense with El-Nino strengthening especially as we get into April the southern jet is only going to get that much more active. So I suspect Tornado Season is going to get off to a very slow start maybe not kick in until late April.

You can see my point below any severe weather is likely going to focused across the South as El-Nino strengthens toward moderate category come June.

April


May

More like mid April thru June if you believe JB, and I trust his long range forecast a lot more than yours.
Very bad and sad Off Topic news (reasons for the crash yet unknown):

Germanwings airliner 4U 9525 crashes in French Alps
BBC, 26 minutes ago
An Airbus A320 airliner has crashed in the French Alps between Barcelonnette and Digne, French aviation officials and police have said.
The jet belongs to the German airline Germanwings, a subsidiary of Lufthansa.
The plane, flight 4U 9525, had been en route from Barcelona to Duesseldorf with 142 passengers and six crew. ...


Quoting 183. StormTrackerScott:



No its not but it makes sense with El-Nino strengthening especially as we get into April the southern jet is only going to get that much more active. So I suspect Tornado Season is going to get off to a very slow start maybe not kick in until late April.

You can see my point below any severe weather is likely going to focused across the South as El-Nino strengthens toward moderate category come June.

April


May



Scott, this model always shows FL in the blue color. Clearly it has some sort of wet bias for FL. Look at what happened in March.
Quoting 142. ACSeattle:


I just don't know how to respond to this.
Pride and arrogance :).Well it seems as though the cold is gonna stick with us with maybe a few days that actually have a spring feel to.
Quoting 189. NativeSun:

The problem is, you base your forecast on these long range models , and they are wrong more than right, so other bloggers see this as your forecast.


I posted that yesterday morning for an event that day. HRRR model is a off shoot of the WRF. Also I never come on here and say a depiction at day 9 is going to happen I just post the model when I think its interesting and there is nothing wrong with that as Doc mentioned the Euro at day 10 on this very blog.

From Doc
No widespread major flooding is expected this spring in the U.S., NOAA said on Thursday in their annual spring flood risk forecast. Rivers in western New York and eastern New England have the greatest risk of spring flooding because of a heavy snowpack of 3 to 9 inches of snow water equivalent, coupled with the potential for heavy spring rain to fall on the snow and cause a sudden melt-water pulse. Significant river ice across northern New York and northern New England increase the risk of flooding related to ice jams and ice jam breakups if there is a quick warm-up with heavy rainfall. The latest 16-day forecast from the GFS model does not call for any heavy rainfall events capable of triggering widespread moderate flooding through the end of March, though.
The current chart set-up and look for Conus:Doppler Radar National Mosaic




Quoting 193. tampabaymatt:



Scott, this model always shows FL in the blue color. Clearly it has some sort of wet bias for FL. Look at what happened in March.


The Euro Weeklies match the CFSv2 for April. It does appear that a much wetter pattern for April will occur than what happened in March across FL and I think this is due to El-Nino intensifying the next 4 to 8 weeks.
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Some freezing rain likely for Wednesday morning.

A developing low pressure area originating in Colorado is forecast to track across the Central Great Lakes on Wednesday. Precipitation is expected to arrive in the form of freezing rain towards dawn early Wednesday morning over Extreme Southwestern Ontario and spread northeastwards through the morning.

It will likely persist for a few hours in some areas and may pose hazardous driving conditions Wednesday morning given the cold overnight temperatures just prior to the precipitation. Also, it may fall somewhat heavily in some locales with 2 to 5 millimetres of ice accumulation possible.

Much milder air will change the freezing rain to rain from west to east during the day before tapering off.

A freezing rain warning will likely be issued later today as the affected regions become more clear.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.
since this is the drier season just having clouds overhd will cause the temp.s to below normal. e cen fl.
Quoting 202. jrweatherman:



I guess I've been misunderstanding you. I thought were were forecasting when in fact as you say - you are not. You are simply selecting a model and showing it. So like yesterday when you said central Florida would see 1.5-2.00" and some up to 3" you were'nt forecasting. Had me fooled. Ok, with that said and you don't forecast, we wouldnt expect to hear you say "I was right" because all you are doing is showing model runs. I got it now.


Here is the exact post below. So you are up to snuff.

580. StormTrackerScott
10:16 AM GMT on March 23, 2015
0 +
HRRR models is showing 1.5" to 2" of rain today from Tampa To Orlando with some spots picking up 3". Very very beneficial rain to what has been a hot and dry 3 weeks plus now.
I have met a lot of great artists, scientists, authors, soldiers, doctors, etc. in my lifetime and the best-greatest ones all have one critical factor in common; humility. Without humility, and the will to serve man and make the world a better place for all without the glaring need for personal recognition, greatness can denerate into pure ego. Not many politicians on my list.
Quoting 206. weathermanwannabe:

I have met a lot of great artists, scientists, authors, soldiers, doctors, etc. in my lifetime and the best-greatest ones all have one critical factor in common; humility. Without humility, and the will to serve man and make the world a better place for all without the glaring need for personal recognition, greatness can denerate into pure ego. Not many politicians on my list.
yeah I see it and grow tried of it enough is enough
My severe weather blog is always open.
Quoting 94. sar2401:

Yes, those dates live in infamy for ham radio. :-) 2009 was the worst, with very few long distance HF contacts and bands being dead for days at a time. We were all hoping that the Cycle 24 would redeem itself but, instead, it's turning out to be the weakest maxima ever. I really don't know a lot about these solar cycles except how they affect ham radio, but it's a little troubling looking at these cycles going back to 1955. The peak of the cycles occurred in 1958 (just before I got my first license, darn it!) and each peak since then has been below the previous peak. I don't know why these cycles are getting weaker but something's going on we don't understand yet. I don't know how anyone can look at a graph of solar cycles and say the sun has been the source of our heating.




That certainly can seem to be the case when you compare against the most anomalous (highest) solar cycle in the entire historical record & attempt to derive linear trends (analogous to what I often see on both sides of AGW), when in fact solar activity has been generally increasing over the last few centuries into what is rightfully termed the "modern maximum" w/ a few hiccups along the way... There's a reason why correlations to solar activity on a wide array of timescales are largely elusive outside the thermosphere & mesosphere (& even stratosphere to some extent) where effects are measurable, direct, & virtually immediate...


PARIS (AP) --
A passenger jet carrying 150 peoplee crashed Tuesday in a remote area of the French Alps as it flew from Barcelona to Duesseldorf, authorities said. As search-and-rescue teams raced to the region, France's president warned that no survivors were expected.

The crash site was at Meolans-Revels, near the popular ski resort of Pra Loup, according to Eric Ciotti, the head of the regional council in southeast France. But with mountains all around and few clear trails to the snow-covered area, access to the crash site was expected to take time.
We just got our irrigation letter. 20% of full rights, with cut-off being June 1 or when the local reservoir "minimum feeder elevation" drops to 4000 acre feet, whichever comes first. That means two irrigation flows for the year. The goal is to give our pastures some growth to keep down wind erosion, refresh the water table for the wells, and keep our small orchard going. We had a good harvest last year, and the winter was mild enough we don't expect much from them this year. I wouldn't mind a late enough frost to keep the production down, reduce the stress on the trees.

I've been wondering, with the predicted significant rise of sea levels over the decades, how that is likely to affect coastal precipitation and weather system movement from the coast to the Sierras. Not to stake our future on, but out of curiosity - has anyone tried to model for this, for pattern changes over the next, say, 50 years?
Quoting 206. weathermanwannabe:

I have met a lot of great artists, scientists, authors, soldiers, doctors, etc. in my lifetime and the best-greatest ones all have one critical factor in common; humility. Without humility, and the will to serve man and make the world a better place for all without the glaring need for personal recognition, greatness can denerate into pure ego. Not many politicians on my list.


How many times can you plus a post? Wish I had other handles to pad.

Anyway, it's been unseasonably chilly around the NYC metro the past few days, but that's forecasted to break (with rain) by Wednesday night/Thursday to more seasonable temperatures. Personally glad the rain should hold off by a day, you know, since the ol' wedding anniversary is today :D [/Shameless self-promotive plug.]

Quoting 183. StormTrackerScott:



No its not but it makes sense with El-Nino strengthening especially as we get into April the southern jet is only going to get that much more active. So I suspect Tornado Season is going to get off to a very slow start maybe not kick in until late April.

You can see my point below any severe weather is likely going to focused across the South as El-Nino strengthens toward moderate category come June.

April


May



The monthly CFS admittedly did do good with the mid-summer ridging we saw over the east last year. I suppose it's not impossible.
Here is the SPC outlook for today from this morning:


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SW MO AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF NE OK AND NW AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED
AREA...FROM ERN OK AND FAR ERN KS INTO CNTRL/SRN MO AND WRN/NRN
AR...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK
AREA...FROM NE TX INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FROM FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA EASTWARD
INTO PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING E PAC RIDGE...BROAD...NEGATIVE-TILT
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY E FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
RCKYS/HI PLNS THIS PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT LEAD UPR IMPULSE
NOW OVER CO TO TRACK E INTO WRN MO BY EVE...BEFORE ASSUMING A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CONTINUES ENE INTO IND/LWR MI EARLY WED. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPSTREAM JET STREAK NOW CROSSING WA/ORE SHOULD AMPLIFY
SE INTO WRN WY/CO.

AT THE SFC...LOW NOW OVER NW OK WILL MOVE STEADILY NE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...REACHING CNTRL MO THIS EVE AND SW MI BY 12Z WED. WHILE
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED...ASSOCIATED LOW-LVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN...ESPECIALLY TNGT AND EARLY WED OVER IL/IND
AS THE LOW ENCROACHES UPON MORE SLOWLY-MOVING SFC RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NE IN WARM
SECTOR OF THE LOW...WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH FROM ERN OK
INTO THE MO OZARKS. BUT EXISTING DISTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS
THAT MOIST AXIS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY NARROW...CONFINED TO BAND
IMMEDIATELY E OF DRY LINE/TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW.

...E CNTRL PLNS TO LWR OH VLY TODAY/TNGT...
WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIALLY
STRONG SUPERCELLS LATER TODAY INTO TNGT...ESPECIALLY FROM NE OK/NW
AR NEWD INTO THE MO OZARKS...WHERE POTENT 60+ KT WLY 500 MB JET
STREAK OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE WILL OVERSPREAD 40+ KT SSWLY LOW-LVL
FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...BROAD/DEEP EML SPREADING E WITH THE UPR
IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS REGION. CURRENT SFC...GPS...AND SATELLITE
DATA...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN MO...WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD
REMAIN AOB 55F.

DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...POTENT COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING WITH
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION
OF MID-LVL JET...AND LOW-LVL UPLIFT SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN NEAR SFC LOW IN WRN/CNTRL MO ...SWWD
ALONG TRAILING SFC TROUGH THROUGH SE KS INTO NE OK. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR A BIT LATER THIS EVE SWD ALONG TROUGH TO NEAR
THE RED RVR.

ALTHOUGH MOIST AXIS WILL BE RELATIVELY NARROW IN MO...A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. SOMEWHAT
WIDER MOIST AXIS /WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S-LWR 60S F/ AND
SLOWER STORM MOTIONS COULD OFFSET WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT TO YIELD
SIMILAR SVR THREATS INTO THE NGT SWD ACROSS NW AR AND ERN OK.

RAPID ENE MOVEMENT OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE WILL OUTPACE LOW-LVL MOISTURE
RETURN IN THE LWR OH VLY...ESPECIALLY ONCE ANVIL PRECIP FROM MO
STORMS...AND THAT FROM ANY ELEVATED WAA CONVECTION FARTHER
E...SPREADS DOWNSHEAR INTO COOL/DRY LOW-LVL AIR NOW PRESENT OVER
REGION. BUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPR IMPULSE...AND TIGHTENING LOW-LVL
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY MENTIONED...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLD
SVR GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH ANY SFC OR NEAR SFC-BASED STORMS THAT DO
PERSIST EWD ACROSS IL AND IND.

..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 03/24/2015
And the chart:

Quoting Webberweather53:


That certainly can seem to be the case when you compare against the most anomalous (highest) solar cycle in the entire historical record & attempt to derive linear trends (analogous to what I often see on both sides of AGW)
You see that "on both sides of AGW", do you? Please elaborate. You know: specifics. Thanks!
Quoting Webberweather53:


...solar activity has been generally increasing over the last few centuries into what is rightfully termed the "modern maximum" w/ a few hiccups along the way...
Those "few hiccups" being that solar activity is currently the lowest it's been in many decades. The "modern maximum", such as it is, ended in 1990.

Here's an interesting image from NASA:



It's of extreme interest to note the following two salient points: 1) SC 24 is the weakest in at least a century. 2) Nine of the ten warmest years in the global instrumental record have occurred since 2000.

IOW: it isn't the sun...
This March has been the most quiet one in terms of severe spring weather for Conus in decades per the SPC comments last week but the 30 year climatological peak day for tornadoes has been April 27th. Too early to tell this far out if the quiet period will hold but it would be a great thing if it did. Also, there has been some research done on the issue of Enso transitions in the Spring and tornado activity in terms of the set-up for the low pressure systems traversing over the Rockies into the US plains that have triggered the most active tornado outbreaks. The research suggests that the most active April tornado outbreaks have occurred during "transition" Enso phases with the largest ones during waning La Nina phases in the Spring and then during El Nino transitions. Still a work in progress, this year, on this research as this record quiet March throws a little monkey wrench into the historical trends they looked at.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
And the chart:

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Here is the SPC outlook for today from this morning:


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SW MO AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF NE OK AND NW AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED
AREA...FROM ERN OK AND FAR ERN KS INTO CNTRL/SRN MO AND WRN/NRN
AR...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK
AREA...FROM NE TX INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LWR OH VLYS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FROM FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA EASTWARD
INTO PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING E PAC RIDGE...BROAD...NEGATIVE-TILT
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY E FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE
RCKYS/HI PLNS THIS PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT LEAD UPR IMPULSE
NOW OVER CO TO TRACK E INTO WRN MO BY EVE...BEFORE ASSUMING A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CONTINUES ENE INTO IND/LWR MI EARLY WED. AT THE
SAME TIME...UPSTREAM JET STREAK NOW CROSSING WA/ORE SHOULD AMPLIFY
SE INTO WRN WY/CO.

AT THE SFC...LOW NOW OVER NW OK WILL MOVE STEADILY NE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...REACHING CNTRL MO THIS EVE AND SW MI BY 12Z WED. WHILE
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED...ASSOCIATED LOW-LVL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN...ESPECIALLY TNGT AND EARLY WED OVER IL/IND
AS THE LOW ENCROACHES UPON MORE SLOWLY-MOVING SFC RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NE IN WARM
SECTOR OF THE LOW...WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH FROM ERN OK
INTO THE MO OZARKS. BUT EXISTING DISTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS
THAT MOIST AXIS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY NARROW...CONFINED TO BAND
IMMEDIATELY E OF DRY LINE/TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW.

...E CNTRL PLNS TO LWR OH VLY TODAY/TNGT...
WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIALLY
STRONG SUPERCELLS LATER TODAY INTO TNGT...ESPECIALLY FROM NE OK/NW
AR NEWD INTO THE MO OZARKS...WHERE POTENT 60+ KT WLY 500 MB JET
STREAK OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE WILL OVERSPREAD 40+ KT SSWLY LOW-LVL
FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...BROAD/DEEP EML SPREADING E WITH THE UPR
IMPULSE WILL MAINTAIN NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS REGION. CURRENT SFC...GPS...AND SATELLITE
DATA...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN MO...WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD
REMAIN AOB 55F.

DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE...POTENT COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING WITH
STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION
OF MID-LVL JET...AND LOW-LVL UPLIFT SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN NEAR SFC LOW IN WRN/CNTRL MO ...SWWD
ALONG TRAILING SFC TROUGH THROUGH SE KS INTO NE OK. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR A BIT LATER THIS EVE SWD ALONG TROUGH TO NEAR
THE RED RVR.

ALTHOUGH MOIST AXIS WILL BE RELATIVELY NARROW IN MO...A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. SOMEWHAT
WIDER MOIST AXIS /WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S-LWR 60S F/ AND
SLOWER STORM MOTIONS COULD OFFSET WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT TO YIELD
SIMILAR SVR THREATS INTO THE NGT SWD ACROSS NW AR AND ERN OK.

RAPID ENE MOVEMENT OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE WILL OUTPACE LOW-LVL MOISTURE
RETURN IN THE LWR OH VLY...ESPECIALLY ONCE ANVIL PRECIP FROM MO
STORMS...AND THAT FROM ANY ELEVATED WAA CONVECTION FARTHER
E...SPREADS DOWNSHEAR INTO COOL/DRY LOW-LVL AIR NOW PRESENT OVER
REGION. BUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPR IMPULSE...AND TIGHTENING LOW-LVL
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY MENTIONED...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLD
SVR GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH ANY SFC OR NEAR SFC-BASED STORMS THAT DO
PERSIST EWD ACROSS IL AND IND.

..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 03/24/2015


HEY!!! I was about to post that!!!




Weather story for today.

A cold front has pushed south of the area overnight, but it is expected to return as a warm front later today. High temperatures south of the front will be in the lower 70s, while north of the front considerable cloud cover will keep highs around 60. A few showers and possibly a stray thunderstorm will stream east mainly north of I-64 this morning. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected across much of the region late this evening.

What does the bolded part mean? How can a cold front come back as a warm front??


Look at this hourly graph for Carbondale IL.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:


That looks pretty unstable.


:S
in regards to long range models.....it's obvious that the typical blogger here knows that their error rate is great....more often than not they will not come to fruition.....that they are a tool...not the end all......so this is aimed more at the casual reader and blogger....as soon....we will be seeing and commenting on more and more long range models as hurricane season approaches and continuing on into the season.......


my simple answer to long range models.....use them



ahhhh...but use them wisely....take the council of proven bloggers that can provide evidence of why they probably won't verify...or what conditions are out there that show they might verify......

in the case of H-season....if a long range model shows a coming low n a region....look at sst's...sal....shear maps....etc..etc....to see if that region has a chance of anything forming...and then go from there....

recently the MJO is a good example of long range forecasts not panning out.....as the MJO was exiting the western pacific a bit over a week ago...long range models showed it looping quickly and coming back to the western pacific grid...something that happens only quite rarely....oh...the doom and gloom prophets of el nino jumped all over this......no...not just bloggers.....notables such as michael ventrice.....and eric blake to name who i noticed...now yes...they have an ax to grind and/or subscription space to sell...so they tend to go out on a limb and try to beat the experts....but come on...this is a long range model...and a model that was trending south of the plot the long range showed...now using it as a tool....a young and studying soon to be met....weatherwannabe...(yes WW...you get major props here)...used it and pulled up evidence of why it was unlikely to happen....which those that took the time to read his post...and digest his material...learned quite a bit that day....

so...the conclusion...how is that long range MJO model doing....well....it appears...that it failed miserably....here is the MJO forecast today



Thanks Ricderr...we know you come in peace.

How ya doing?


hey 62......i'm good...looking forward to some 80 degree days later this week...conditions are back to dry as is typical for us this time of year...last weeks rainy and cloudy days are not the norm...but they did bring us to about 150 percent of normal precip year to date so we're thrilled...and hopeful that we will break out of our below normal precip spell we've been in
Quoting ricderr:
Thanks Ricderr...we know you come in peace.

How ya doing?


hey 62......i'm good...looking forward to some 80 degree days later this week...conditions are back to dry as is typical for us this time of year...last weeks rainy and cloudy days are not the norm...but they did bring us to about 150 percent of normal precip year to date so we're thrilled...and hopeful that we will break out of our below normal precip spell we've been in


I'm awesome!

Can't wait for tommorow.

I love severe weather!!!
Scary times ahead.Link
HRRR is really starting to target Missouri for development later today.



Good morning all! Is there anyone on the boards that has knowledge regarding the forgotten hurricane of 1947? Over the weekend, I came across a scrapbook filled with newspaper clippings and the damage from it seemed immense. I realize that part of the reason that we don't know much about it is because it made landfall in an area of southern Palm Beach that was, at that time, relatively unpopulated, but you would think there would be more discussion of a storm that was at least a Cat 4 in the annals!
Hey Rick. I haven't read down the blog yet to see who got beat up (again) but I have my guess. Nice day today, temp and humidity down. I think I go hit the links and enjoy the weather before it turns hot again.


yep.....enjoy it while you can....won't be long before florida becomes unenjoyable again....we did the weekend thing in ruidoso....the weather here has been in the mid 70's...and there it was in the 50's......and the wind...well..it made me think i should have wore more than shorts and a polo as the wife was getting her shopping on at the stores...but i did tell my wife...come june...when el paso is enduring it's 100 degree days...we're spending the weekends up here
Reed (Dominator)

I'm not one to quote people, but Reed is very good at finding the most likely locations for tornado development.

Reed Timmer @reedtimmerTVN %uFFFD 1h 1 hour ago
Targeting SW MO this afternoon, maybe S into far NE OK/NW AR for hailers and maybe isolated #tornado @FoxMariaMolina
Quoting 168. KoritheMan:

Not surprisingly, the NWS has trended a few degrees warmer for overnight lows Friday and Saturday during the post-frontal CAA. I still think we're going to end up on the warmer side in the end. Those hoping for an uber cold outbreak penetrating to the Gulf Coast are probably going to be disappointed. It's almost April, not January.


Depends on the definition of "uber cold". Climatology, the dynamics for fronts that blast all the way through the gulf and off Southeast FL tip, don't weaken until the first days of April. April 1987 had at least two such in the first ten days, the second froze my spring garden in TLH April 6 or so. But because of insolation which is of course much stronger now, these air masses are much warmer at the surface than they would be in January, esp during the day.
March this year has been unusual with strong subtropical ridging, not unprecedented but not the most common situation this time of year either.

Wish I could get in on it. There's a lot of thickness lines between me and STS.


Quoting 234. ricderr:

Hey Rick. I haven't read down the blog yet to see who got beat up (again) but I have my guess. Nice day today, temp and humidity down. I think I go hit the links and enjoy the weather before it turns hot again.


yep.....enjoy it while you can....won't be long before florida becomes unenjoyable again....we did the weekend thing in ruidoso....the weather here has been in the mid 70's...and there it was in the 50's......and the wind...well..it made me think i should have wore more than shorts and a polo as the wife was getting her shopping on at the stores...but i did tell my wife...come june...when el paso is enduring it's 100 degree days...we're spending the weekends up here


I'd like to live in Western MD at elevation, to get away from DC summers. I do think I could deal with the colder winters better than dealing with the mind destroying heat here in DC metro.
Quoting 226. ricderr:

in regards to long range models.....it's obvious that the typical blogger here knows that their error rate is great....more often than not they will not come to fruition.....that they are a tool...not the end all......so this is aimed more at the casual reader and blogger....as soon....we will be seeing and commenting on more and more long range models as hurricane season approaches and continuing on into the season.......


my simple answer to long range models.....use them



ahhhh...but use them wisely....take the council of proven bloggers that can provide evidence of why they probably won't verify...or what conditions are out there that show they might verify......

in the case of H-season....if a long range model shows a coming low n a region....look at sst's...sal....shear maps....etc..etc....to see if that region has a chance of anything forming...and then go from there....

recently the MJO is a good example of long range forecasts not panning out.....as the MJO was exiting the western pacific a bit over a week ago...long range models showed it looping quickly and coming back to the western pacific grid...something that happens only quite rarely....oh...the doom and gloom prophets of el nino jumped all over this......no...not just bloggers.....notables such as michael ventrice.....and eric blake to name who i noticed...now yes...they have an ax to grind and/or subscription space to sell...so they tend to go out on a limb and try to beat the experts....but come on...this is a long range model...and a model that was trending south of the plot the long range showed...now using it as a tool....a young and studying soon to be met....weatherwannabe...(yes WW...you get major props here)...used it and pulled up evidence of why it was unlikely to happen....which those that took the time to read his post...and digest his material...learned quite a bit that day....

so...the conclusion...how is that long range MJO model doing....well....it appears...that it failed miserably....here is the MJO forecast today






Thanks. The global models (except for the american based guidance w/ Western Pacific initialization) have a well known tendency to move the MJO into the COD w/ increasing leads & they struggle immensely (even more so than the GFS w/ Western hemisphere MJO events) @ handling MJO initiation (via CCKW excitation w/ origins from the S America Amazon) over the Indian Ocean (phase 2-3). Granted, we didn't observe quite as dramatic of a flip this time as I'm accustomed to seeing, likely because we already had an exceptionally high amplitude MJO event in progress.

This aforementioned assumption is also consistent w/ the work of H. Kim, Webster, Toma, & D. Kim (Aug 18 2014), which I've already referenced several times on this blog...




Unlike March 1997, this MJO pulse will continue to progress deep into the eastern hemisphere, potentially resulting in (or kickstarting) a well-adveristed period of interference that could intensify as we approach the climatological peak of the Southern Asia/Indian monsoons. 1997 decayed rapidly over the western IO, & failed to reach phase 3 w/ amplitude...


240. jpsb
Incredible pictures of "Ice Planet" Canada
pics here
I'd like to live in Western MD at elevation, to get away from DC summers. I do think I could deal with the colder winters better than dealing with the mind destroying heat here in DC metro.


one of the nice things here...is low humidity...while it gets ungodly hot in june...the evening breeze typically makes the night comfortable.....but yes....i could do without the high heat
. Perhaps another significant storm for the battle weary, storm weary, and no rest for the weary northeast.
Quoting 231. LAbonbon:


Sure, STS had an arrogant post. *shrugs* We all have our own quirks, don't we?

What's really tiring is seeing the same people, day-in/day-out, post again and again dogging the guy. He can't post a long-range model, a QPF, or God forbid, anything related to El Nino, without the same people posting repeatedly arguing what he has posted. No one else gets torn down like that.

I'm not referring to those members who disagree politely and professionally with a conclusion he has drawn; I'm referring to those that keep at it continuously.

That is what is tiring.

The continual 'ganging up' on the guy reeks of bullying. Sorry, but it does. Criticizing his personality, trying to minimize his posting, trying to get him to not have his own opinions...what else could it be called?

Said it before, and here it is again - if you don't like the guy, and he bothers you so much you've got to post about him, put the guy on ignore.


People on here if they don't like me then they need to put me on ignore as I am usually on topic all the time and do nothing wrong. Yes, I get defensive and say some arrogant things but I do it because I get tired of the same crap everyday on here from some. These same individuals come on here don't post anything relevant to the topic at hand only to come on here and bash me I think its sad.

Anyways Dr. Steve Gregory thinks we could have moderate to strong El-Nino possibly by Summer's start. Its this increasing strength in El-Nino that is going to likely derail any severe weather prospects across the northern US until maybe May however those from Texas to FL even as far north as Dixie Alley are in for a higher risk for severe weather this Spring due to the increasing southern jet that appears it is going to get very active in April.

By the way the modoki signal is now gone.

It's looking like it could get quite stormy in the Joplin area.


. I will try again. Perhaps another significant storm for the battle weary, storm weary, and no rest for the weary northeast in a week to ten days. Take it with a grain of salt its the GFS
Quoting 226. ricderr:

in regards to long range models.....it's obvious that the typical blogger here knows that their error rate is great....more often than not they will not come to fruition.....that they are a tool...not the end all......so this is aimed more at the casual reader and blogger....as soon....we will be seeing and commenting on more and more long range models as hurricane season approaches and continuing on into the season.......


my simple answer to long range models.....use them



ahhhh...but use them wisely....take the council of proven bloggers that can provide evidence of why they probably won't verify...or what conditions are out there that show they might verify......

in the case of H-season....if a long range model shows a coming low n a region....look at sst's...sal....shear maps....etc..etc....to see if that region has a chance of anything forming...and then go from there....

recently the MJO is a good example of long range forecasts not panning out.....as the MJO was exiting the western pacific a bit over a week ago...long range models showed it looping quickly and coming back to the western pacific grid...something that happens only quite rarely....oh...the doom and gloom prophets of el nino jumped all over this......no...not just bloggers.....notables such as michael ventrice.....and eric blake to name who i noticed...now yes...they have an ax to grind and/or subscription space to sell...so they tend to go out on a limb and try to beat the experts....but come on...this is a long range model...and a model that was trending south of the plot the long range showed...now using it as a tool....a young and studying soon to be met....weatherwannabe...(yes WW...you get major props here)...used it and pulled up evidence of why it was unlikely to happen....which those that took the time to read his post...and digest his material...learned quite a bit that day....

so...the conclusion...how is that long range MJO model doing....well....it appears...that it failed miserably....here is the MJO forecast today






Two week GFS forecast verification is not all that bad, GEFS another story.


Rolls eyes.lol.Does anyone need any tissues?
Here's a on-topic crack-me-up:

wundergroundlive blogger this morning identifies SPC's 0800 "enhanced" outlook risk as "moderate."
Sorry. Flagged 245 by mistake.
Quoting 249. washingtonian115:

Rolls eyes.lol.Does anyone need any tissues?


I'm sure Walgreens as some for you to purchase.

Anyways cooler today don't think well hit 85 that is forecast.

Quoting WeatherConvoy:
. I will try again. Perhaps another significant storm for the battle weary, storm weary, and no rest for the weary northeast in a week to ten days. Take it with a grain of salt its the GFS


Yeah, the GFS shows a double punch. One system on April 2-3 and then another on April 5-6.
This would be bad news for the Northeast if these systems were to verify.
Quoting 240. jpsb:

Incredible pictures of "Ice Planet" Canada
pics here

Wow. That's incredible. I mean, some people would have a hard time believing there could be that much snow in a definitively warming world, but there it is, all that snow in a world that is warming, definitively.
Quoting 235. Sfloridacat5:

Reed (Dominator)

I'm not one to quote people, but Reed is very good at finding the most likely locations for tornado development.

Reed Timmer @reedtimmerTVN %uFFFD 1h 1 hour ago
Targeting SW MO this afternoon, maybe S into far NE OK/NW AR for hailers and maybe isolated #tornado @FoxMariaMolina
Only 2% tor probs at the moment but hail probs holding strong.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Only 2% tor probs at the moment but hail probs holding strong.


Yep, that could change. Need to watch and see how things unfold.

From the SPC Convective Outlook

ALTHOUGH MOIST AXIS WILL BE RELATIVELY NARROW IN MO...A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES.
SOMEWHAT
WIDER MOIST AXIS /WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S-LWR 60S F/ AND
SLOWER STORM MOTIONS COULD OFFSET WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT TO YIELD
SIMILAR SVR THREATS INTO THE NGT SWD ACROSS NW AR AND ERN OK.
4 years ago president obama issued a challenge asking for a tornado forecast....columbia university took up that challenge and this year has issued their first long range tornado forecast.....not sure how well it will verify...but in reading about it....quite a few notables on the subject have given them props while also saying there's more work to be done.....

On the more "weathery" side, what are the odds on the coming hurricane season in the Atlantic basin?
Any ideas? I have been watching all these lows coming out of the W & SW and across SE Texas or just off the coast there. They tend to scoot up into that area shown above where the deeper severe weather possibilities are expected.
What happens if this trend continues into the summer, eh?
Might it portend troubles of a tropical nature for the southern (GOM) states?
Just a thought. Of course, things could change lots by then.
Today in history - near the spot where the plane crashed today

Mont Blanc - Monte Bianco
France - Italy

International boundary

March 24, 1999

The European Route 25, signaled as E25, is a north-south highway running from the Netherlands to the Italian Island of Palermo... sort of like US Interstate 95.

E25 crosses the Alps between France and Italy and at one point it enters a tunnel which lies under Mount Blanc right at the international boundary of these countries.
This tunnel is 7.2 miles long and takes about 15 minutes to cross it.

Since its opening in 1965 no major tragedy occurred but until 34 years later.
In 1999 a truck carrying margarine and flour exploded halfway inside the tunnel heading to Italy. The driver miraculously survived but the drivers behind this truck did not as the heavy thick smoke took over quickly the area inside.
Many died trying to scape running back to the Italian entrance but they cars engine died as them due to the lack of oxygen.

The burning continued for 53 hours.
A plaque honoring the victims of this tragedy was placed on the French side entrance.

This was truly a run for your life if you even had the chance.

Link
Information on My Hurricane Week coming up in May.
Quoting 212. nonblanche:

We just got our irrigation letter. 20% of full rights, with cut-off being June 1 or when the local reservoir "minimum feeder elevation" drops to 4000 acre feet, whichever comes first. That means two irrigation flows for the year. The goal is to give our pastures some growth to keep down wind erosion, refresh the water table for the wells, and keep our small orchard going. We had a good harvest last year, and the winter was mild enough we don't expect much from them this year. I wouldn't mind a late enough frost to keep the production down, reduce the stress on the trees.

I've been wondering, with the predicted significant rise of sea levels over the decades, how that is likely to affect coastal precipitation and weather system movement from the coast to the Sierras. Not to stake our future on, but out of curiosity - has anyone tried to model for this, for pattern changes over the next, say, 50 years?
Time may better be spent planning for probable geological changes when San Andeas pops... imho
265. jpsb
Quoting 258. ricderr:




Not a single severe thunderstorm or tornado watch has been issued anywhere in the U.S. by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center so far in March, as of March 22.

"This has never happened in the record of SPC watches dating back to 1970," said Greg Carbin, Storm Prediction Center warning coordination meteor


source
Quoting 260. WalkingInTheSun:



So,...are you saying that Global Climate Change is to blame, or ISIS, or both?
(C'mon, it's a joke -- maybe it'll cut you some slack as they pile up against me. :) Haha.)
SCREEEEECH!!!! (brakes) -- my apologies: I was not my intent to be flippant about the sad loss of lives.
I have humbled myself & done the best politically perfect thing there is now, a public apology to appease.


Yet another AIrbus goes down... When are they going to finally admit there is a flaw with that plane.

It's 37 out with a cold rain. 62901IL might see more severe weather than i will. I might see the leftovers of storms farther west, JUST LIKE EVERY TIME LAST YEAR! At this point, i might as well not believe there'll be any severe weather until i see it. :/
Quoting TimTheWxMan:
It's 37 out with a cold rain. 62901IL might see more severe weather than i will. I might see the leftovers of storms farther west, JUST LIKE EVERY TIME LAST YEAR! At this point, i might as well not believe there'll be any severe weather until i see it. :/


Thanks for mentioning me again!!!
Yep, you said it all.
Be back later, everybody.
Quoting 268. 62901IL:



Thanks for mentioning me again!!!
Yep, you said it all.



Watch for a possible squall line early thursday morning. The warm front is still too far south and this cold rain ruined any severe weather. I'll be lucky to hear any thunder.
271. jpsb
Quoting 262. ricderr:


Quote function not working for me, just wanted to say that tolerance is over rated .
Like I mentioned before, the timing might reduce the severe weather tomorrow.
It's looking like the activity might peak at night.

Either way, the setup is looking pretty good for severe weather tomorrow/tomorrow night.
Quoting 265. jpsb:



Not a single severe thunderstorm or tornado watch has been issued anywhere in the U.S. by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center so far in March, as of March 22.

"This has never happened in the record of SPC watches dating back to 1970," said Greg Carbin, Storm Prediction Center warning coordination meteor


source


It's an ill jet stream that blows no good.
A portion of the updated SPC short-term forecast from lunchtime with the new "enhanced" label
that we have been discussing since the current post; along with the circular moderate risk
surrounding the elevated risk.................. :)


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SW MO AND
ADJACENT PARTS OF NE OK AND NW AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED
AREA...FROM ERN OK AND FAR ERN KS INTO CNTRL/SRN MO AND WRN/NRN
AR...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK
AREA...FROM EXTREME NE TX INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS AND LWR OH
VLYS...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER
OHIO VALLEYS.
Happy birthday. To me am now 30 but I don't feel like 30 I feel more like 20 to 25 you ever get that feeling ?


On the way to black oak too win I feel vary lucky. Today
Quoting 277. luvtogolf:



I need to go take two advil, and come back and re-read your post. Tee time in an hour:)
Where you playing today, great day to get out and do anything outside.. This weekend should be perfect for some golf...Low 70's will be beautiful...
Quoting Tazmanian:
Happy birthday. To me am now 30 but I don't feel like 30 I feel more like 20 to 25 you ever get that feeling ?


On the way to black oak too win I feel vary lucky. Today


Happy birthday Taz! You don't look a day over 29:)
Quoting robintampabay:
Where you playing today, great day to get out and do anything outside.. This weekend should be perfect for some golf...Low 70's will be beautiful...


Playing out at Innisbrook today. Gonna be rough day I'm afraid. It's never easy out there.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Like I mentioned before, the timing might reduce the severe weather tomorrow.
It's looking like the activity might peak at night.

Either way, the setup is looking pretty good for severe weather tomorrow/tomorrow night.


I can hardly wait.
Quoting Tazmanian:
Happy birthday. To me am now 30 but I don't feel like 30 I feel more like 20 to 25 you ever get that feeling ?


On the way to black oak too win I feel vary lucky. Today


Happy birthday Tazzy-Taz!!
Quoting 280. luvtogolf:



Playing out at Innisbrook today. Gonna be rough day I'm afraid. It's never easy out there.
My profile pic was shot on the 10th tee box on the Island Course at Innisbrook.
Quoting 276. Tazmanian:

Happy birthday. To me am now 30 but I don't feel like 30 I feel more like 20 to 25 you ever get that feeling ?


On the way to black oak too win I feel vary lucky. Today


Happy B-Day Taz....

What is 30 supposed to feel like?
Quoting robintampabay:
My profile pic was shot on the 10th tee box on the Island Course at Innisbrook.


Mine is the SPC outlook from May 25 2011
Quoting 284. Dakster:



Happy B-Day Taz....

What is 30 supposed to feel like?

Feels like being three after having been born again having survived the Club of 27.
Quoting cRRKampen:

Feels like being three after having been born again having survived the Club of 27.


What's the club of 27?
Quoting robintampabay:
My profile pic was shot on the 10th tee box on the Island Course at Innisbrook.


Love the course! Playing there next week. 9 and 10 are brutally tough.
Anyone know what happened to hurricanes2018?
I have WUmailed him, but he did not respond.
Quoting 287. 62901IL:



What's the club of 27?

Jimi Hendrix, Curt Cobain, Amy Winehouse... Link
New Graphical Nowcast from NWS Paducah.



Light to moderate showers, with an occasional clap of thunder, will continue to move east northeast across portions of southeast Missouri and along the Interstate-64 corridor in southern Illinois. Hourly rainfall amounts will range from little more than a trace up to a few hundredths of an inch.
Quoting cRRKampen:

Jimi Hendrix, Curt Cobain, Amy Winehouse... Link


Thanks!
The low over Oklahoma showing up well on the Earth Wind Model. Nice area of southerly winds converging into the easterly flow.
Link
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
The low over Oklahoma showing up well on the Earth Wind Model. Nice area of southerly winds converging into the easterly flow.
Link


Just looked at it.

All I can say is...WOW!!!
I cannot wait for tommorow\tommorow night.

Anyone want to guess why?

Hint: See comment 270
Here's what the NAM thinks about tomorrow/tomorrow night.



Latest CFSv2 has trended with some of the other models from the NMME site for Strong El-Nino by peak of Hurricane Season. This El-Nino is having an effect on Tornado Season and will have an effect on this years upcoming Hurricane Season.

Quoting Tazmanian:
Happy birthday. To me am now 30 but I don't feel like 30 I feel more like 20 to 25 you ever get that feeling ?


On the way to black oak too win I feel vary lucky. Today
Happy Birthday Taz and many more.
Quoting 276. Tazmanian:

Happy birthday. To me am now 30 but I don't feel like 30 I feel more like 20 to 25 you ever get that feeling ?


On the way to black oak too win I feel vary lucky. Today


Happy Birthday!! Go party like a Rock Star now as you are only 30 once.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Here's what the NAM thinks about tomorrow/tomorrow night.






HOODY FREAKING HOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!


(I have this thing with severe weather. I like it.)
GFS remain consistent with big cooldown this weekend. Me personally this will feel very refreshing even if its only for a couple of days. For what was long range to now the GFS sure has remained status quo for 5 days now. Not bad.

Saturday


Saturday Night
We got a nice steady rain here on the north coast over night. Looks we'll end up with an inch and a half or so. I don't think the rain is making it very far down into the rest of California, but the Redwoods are liking it here.
Reed Timmer
%u200F@reedtimmerTVN
Looks like storm initiation should happen just after 4 pm N of Joplin, MO. Hail main threat

Spencer Reece %u200F@skelltexas 8m8 minutes ago
@reedtimmerTVN darkness will play a role in chasing next two days with late afternoon early evening development.

Confirms my thinking about a lot of the development is going to be at night. Definitely not good for chasing.
Quoting 300. 62901IL:




HOODY FREAKING HOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!


(I have this thing with severe weather. I like it.)


Looks more like straight line winds and hail but a isolated twister can't be ruled out.


OH YEAH!!!!!!! NOW WE'RE TALKING!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Looks more like straight line winds and hail but a isolated twister can't be ruled out.


I know...but still, it makes me shout in happiness.


YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 306. 62901IL:



I know...but still, it makes me shout in happiness.


YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


I know how you feel to get that first good storm of the year. Enjoy it!
Quoting 301. StormTrackerScott:

GFS remain consistent with big cooldown this weekend. Me personally this will feel very refreshing even if its only for a couple of days. For what was long range to now the GFS sure has remained status quo for 5 days now. Not bad.

Saturday


Saturday Night
Actually last night was quite refreshing too after the front came through. I'm just down the road from you Scott Apopka/Wekiva.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I know how you feel to get that first good storm of the year. Enjoy it!


HECK YEAH!!!!!!!!!!
I Will enjoy it!!!!!!


Theme song: Best.Song.Ever.
Quoting 308. KDDFlorida:




I'm in Sweetwater where are you? I think Wxlogic is near me as well. We have a good number of bloggers right where I live. Very interesting to see such a good number with in just a 5 mile radius. How about that heavy rain around 5:50am yesterday. It was coming down furious for a solid 5 minutes then it was gone only to be left with light rain. Did get .51" though so can't complain.
311. JRRP
2014

2015

dry in the caribbean
Quoting 254. SeriouslySushi:


Wow. That's incredible. I mean, some people would have a hard time believing there could be that much snow in a definitively warming world, but there it is, all that snow in a world that is warming, definitively.
Like it never snows in Canada in the winter, huh? I think it's been happening for quite a few years.
Luckily the GFS has backed off a little with the cold air along the middle Gulf Coast.
It was showing a freeze all the way to New Orleans on Sunday morning.

GFS has stayed pretty consistent with Florida's temps.


GFS from last Sunday showing a hard freeze to the middle Gulf Coast.
Quoting 313. Sfloridacat5:

Luckily the GFS has backed off a little with the cold air along the middle Gulf Coast.
It was showing a freeze all the way to New Orleans on Sunday morning.

GFS has stayed pretty consistent with Florida's temps.


GFS from last Sunday showing a hard freeze to the middle Gulf Coast.



Temps in C FL have stayed very consistent on the GFS for us for this weekend.
12Z Euro is indicating there could be a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms across FL Thursday evening thru Friday. Lots of energy being projected for Friday according to the Euro across FL so be ready if warnings are issued.
Quoting 297. StormTrackerScott:

Latest CFSv2 has trended with some of the other models from the NMME site for Strong El-Nino by peak of Hurricane Season. This El-Nino is having an effect on Tornado Season and will have an effect on this years upcoming Hurricane Season.


That spread.
Euro and GFS seem to agree a solid 1" to 1.5" of rain is very likely across C & S FL on Friday. Yes S FL guys as well will get into the act although the rain won't arrive till late Friday for you guys.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Luckily the GFS has backed off a little with the cold air along the middle Gulf Coast.
It was showing a freeze all the way to New Orleans on Sunday morning.

GFS has stayed pretty consistent with Florida's temps.


GFS from last Sunday showing a hard freeze to the middle Gulf Coast.
The local mets here are thinking a line from Jackson MS to Birmingham and up to Atlanta will be a good demarcation for freezing temperatures. North of the line has the best chance for a freeze, and south looks like 33 to 36, with Florida not getting below 40 on average. That would be consistent with climatology. This would have to be record breaking cold for me to get below freezing. Still, it really depends on the exact location and path of the high as well as sky and wind conditions Saturday and Sunday night. We'll have a better idea of all that as we get closer.
The current National doppler image; not much there as of yet at the core of the enhanced risk area:


Doppler Radar National Mosaic
Quoting 317. StormTrackerScott:

Euro and GFS seem to agree a solid 1" to 1.5" of rain is very likely across C & S FL on Friday. Yes S FL guys as well will get into the act although the rain won't arrive till late Friday for you guys.




The GFS is not in agreement on that. As usual, it's showing hardly any rain for FL.
Quoting 319. weathermanwannabe:

The current National doppler image; not much there as of yet at the core of the enhanced risk area:


Doppler Radar National Mosaic



Storms aren't supposed to initiate for a few more hours.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
The current National doppler image; not much there as of yet at the core of the enhanced risk area:


Doppler Radar National Mosaic
There's also quite a bit of dry air that's disrupting development. Even right on the dry line we're not see much in the way of initiation. We'll see as we get into the evening but it's not looking bad in terms of somewhat lessened threat.
Quoting sar2401:
The local mets here are thinking a line from Jackson MS to Birmingham and up to Atlanta will be a good demarcation for freezing temperatures. North of the line has the best chance for a freeze, and south looks like 33 to 36, with Florida not getting below 40 on average. That would be consistent with climatology. This would have to be record breaking cold for me to get below freezing. Still, it really depends on the exact location and path of the high as well as sky and wind conditions Saturday and Sunday night. We'll have a better idea of all that as we get closer.


Yeah, I remember us discussing this over the weekend when the GFS runs came out.
I remember you saying that you didn't think there would be a freeze that far south.
Quoting 319. weathermanwannabe:

The current National doppler image; not much there as of yet at the core of the enhanced risk area:


Doppler Radar National Mosaic

The HRRR, which is usually pretty good, shows convective initiation around 4:00 CDT. As the SPC predicted, it is showing supercells, a broken line of them, as the dominant convective mode. Not a huge tornado threat because of high cloud bases, but we may see tornado probabilities bumped up slightly in the 20z SPC update. They're only at 2% now.
Current observations in Springfield and Joplin:


WeatherVsby.
(Mi.)Temp.
Dewpt.
Hum.
(%)Wind
(mph)Wind
Chill (ºF)Pres.
(in)


Springfield, MO. 12:52 A Few Clouds and Breezy. 67° with a 50° dewpoint, winds S 23 G 30.


Joplin, MO. 12:53. A Few Clouds. 75° with a 53° dewpoint. Winds S 17 G 32
HRRR simulated radar image for 5:00 CDT this evening:

The GFS is not in agreement on that. As usual, it's showing hardly any rain for FL.


mat...no rain for you....tampa is the newest desert climate
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



Storms aren't supposed to initiate for a few more hours.


Yeah, it probably won't be until (5pm Eastern Time),(4pm Central time) before we start to see storms fire off near the Kansas/Missouri/Oklahoma boarder area.
Quoting 327. ricderr:

The GFS is not in agreement on that. As usual, it's showing hardly any rain for FL.


mat...no rain for you....tampa is the newest desert climate


Not trying to pile on Scott, but he stated the GFS shows 1" to 1.5" inch of rain for C FL on Friday, and from what I can see on Levi's site, the GFS is not showing that. So, that seems to be an error on Scott's part.
Quoting 329. tampabaymatt:



Not trying to pile on Scott, but he stated the GFS shows 1" to 1.5" inch of rain for C FL on Friday, and from what I can see on Levi's site, the GFS is not showing that. So, that seems to be an error on Scott's part.


You might as well jump on too as eveyone else is but you are correct the GFS shows .50 to .75 but the Euro shows 1" to 1.5". I suspect some storms will be strong on Friday across the area.
Quoting 327. ricderr:

The GFS is not in agreement on that. As usual, it's showing hardly any rain for FL.


mat...no rain for you....tampa is the newest desert climate


I didn't realize we have a desert deep southeast in the US now...
The good news for today is that this is not an organized severe weather event in spite of the "new" categories; when SPC posts the established moderate risk charts, then we really have to pay closer attention when we get into the stronger cells that can spin-off tornadoes.  Still, some strong t-storms with strong gusts can still pack a punch so the heads up for the general public with the enhanced category is probably a good thing. 
Quoting 330. StormTrackerScott:



You might as well jump on too as eveyone else is but you are correct the GFS shows .50 to .75 but the Euro shows 1" to 1.5". I suspect some storms will be strong on Friday across the area.


I suspect the Euro will be correct on this one. The GFS has an issue when it comes to rainfall in FL, as you have pointed out.
Not trying to pile on Scott, but he stated the GFS shows 1" to 1.5" inch of rain for C FL on Friday, and from what I can see on Levi's site, the GFS is not showing that. So, that seems to be an error on Scott's part.


lol.....that's a never ending task...ta da da boom.......

really though......there doesn't seem to be any of them that you can rely on.....here in el paso it's even more difficult...as the systems can be so small in nature...the west side can see a quarter of an inch...while central and the east may be totally dry...and of course just the oppositte....last summer....i drove from one side of town through the other.....east...sunny clear skies.....central...storming....the airport recorded almost a half inch...and then on the west side.....clear sunny skies there too....we're talking a distance of about 22 miles
Quoting tampabaymatt:




The GFS is not in agreement on that. As usual, it's showing hardly any rain for FL.


That one tiny dry circle is right over my house. Hopefully we'll see that change over the next few days.
What many don't realize is so far this year most of Florida has seen below normal precipitation.

Some precipitation data that might be surprising to some.

Orlando is 1.1" above normal YTD
Tampa is 1.4" above normal YTD

Fort Myers is 2.71" below normal YTD
Daytona Beach is 2.73" below normal YTD
Melbourne is .89" below normal YTD
Sarasota is 2.96" below normal YTD
Miami is 1.28" below normal YTD
Naples is 3.68" below normal YTD
Tallahassee is 1.71" below normal YTD


Quoting 333. tampabaymatt:



I suspect the Euro will be correct on this one. The GFS has an issue when it comes to rainfall in FL, as you have pointed out.


The dynamics being shown with the Euro indicate we could see a widespread rain event totaling around a 1". This would be great and then the Euro is very wet across C & S FL mid to late next week too.
I'm surprised no one caught this. Nice swirly off the NE FL coast. Maybe it'll get a name (sarcasm). Cool feature nonetheless.



Jax visible satellite
I didn't realize we have a desert deep southeast in the US now...


yep...i've called it....in twenty/thirty years from now when NOAA reclassifies it as so....you can tell all your friends and neighbors.......ric called that one :-)
I'm surprised no one caught this. Nice swirly off the NE FL coast. Maybe it'll get a name (sarcasm). Cool feature nonetheless.



i see the eye
Regarding precip in Central FL:

The 12z doesn't show it, the 06z does have it. Don't know if Scott was referring to this run or not.



and hour 78 (12z Friday) shows the GFS had this precip starting on Friday.



But I would actually call this north-central Florida...
Quoting 338. ricderr:
I didn't realize we have a desert deep southeast in the US now...


yep...i've called it....in twenty/thirty years from now when NOAA reclassifies it as so....you can tell all your friends and neighbors.......ric called that one :-)


Pretty sure the Mojave Desert has already expanded all the way to the Pacific. I called that one.
Quoting 334. ricderr:

Not trying to pile on Scott, but he stated the GFS shows 1" to 1.5" inch of rain for C FL on Friday, and from what I can see on Levi's site, the GFS is not showing that. So, that seems to be an error on Scott's part.


lol.....that's a never ending task...ta da da boom.......

really though......there doesn't seem to be any of them that you can rely on.....here in el paso it's even more difficult...as the systems can be so small in nature...the west side can see a quarter of an inch...while central and the east may be totally dry...and of course just the oppositte....last summer....i drove from one side of town through the other.....east...sunny clear skies.....central...storming....the airport recorded almost a half inch...and then on the west side.....clear sunny skies there too....we're talking a distance of about 22 miles


I brought this up the other day, but yesterday I received 0.79”. A PWS shown on the wundermap that is 0.28 miles from my house (as the crow flies), received about a quarter inch less than me. Assuming everything is accurate, it blows my mind that rainfall could be that different for a non-summer rain event. Now, there is another PWS about 1.25 miles from my house that was within 0.03” of my total. Go figure.
Pretty sure the Mojave Desert has already expanded all the way to the Pacific. I called that one.


and when they change that...they'll rename it the timsocal desert
Quoting 305. 62901IL:



OH YEAH!!!!!!! NOW WE'RE TALKING!!!!!!!!!!!!



Yes! I'm in that squall line now! The HRRR thinks the first round of storms will fizzle into a few hours of rain showers. I'm surprised there's not a 1730Z day 2 outlook yet. What's up with that?
Quoting 340. LAbonbon:

Regarding precip in Central FL:

The 12z doesn't show it, the 06z does have it. Don't know if Scott was referring to this run or not.



and hour 78 (12z Friday) shows the GFS had this precip starting on Friday.



But I would actually call this north-central Florida...


Haven't looked at the 12Z GFS until Matt posted it. The 06Z was what I was referring too which is nearly identical to the Euro. The GFS sometimes has resolution issues in regards to heaviness of precip either too light or too heavy given the time of year across FL.
Quoting 325. TimTheWxMan:

Current observations in Springfield and Joplin:


WeatherVsby.
(Mi.)Temp.
Dewpt.
Hum.
(%)Wind
(mph)Wind
Chill (ºF)Pres.
(in)


Springfield, MO. 12:52 A Few Clouds and Breezy. 67° with a 50° dewpoint, winds S 23 G 30.


Joplin, MO. 12:53. A Few Clouds. 75° with a 53° dewpoint. Winds S 17 G 32


High based storms? Dewpoints are rather low.
Quoting 347. StormTrackerScott:



High based storms? Dewpoints are rather low.



That's why hail's the main threat. There's a chance of an isolated tornado since there's some turning of the winds with height at the lower levels.
Quoting 276. Tazmanian:

Happy birthday. To me am now 30 but I don't feel like 30 I feel more like 20 to 25 you ever get that feeling ?


On the way to black oak too win I feel vary lucky. Today



Happy birthday Taz!
The boundary is passing through Tulsa right now. Storms should fire along and just ahead of this very soon.
Thank you.
Quoting 350. Sfloridacat5:

The boundary is passing through Tulsa right now. Storms should fire along and just ahead of this very soon.




That's why they expect storms to fire in an hour or so.
Quoting 350. Sfloridacat5:

The boundary is passing through Tulsa right now. Storms should fire along and just ahead of this very soon.




The HRRR run kinda reminded me of April 27th, 2014 when a broken line of storms fired in western missouri (when tornadoes hit quapaw and baxter springs).
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I brought this up the other day, but yesterday I received 0.79”. A PWS shown on the wundermap that is 0.28 miles from my house (as the crow flies), received about a quarter inch less than me. Assuming everything is accurate, it blows my mind that rainfall could be that different for a non-summer rain event. Now, there is another PWS about 1.25 miles from my house that was within 0.03” of my total. Go figure.
That's always going to be a problem looking at PWS data. No one checks how the instruments are set up and what kind of exposure the temperature sensor and rain gauge have. You can have a difference in recorded rainfall on the same street if one gauge is out in the open and the other is on the lee side of a structure. I've seen a couple of installs with my fellow ham radio operators. Some of them were high dollar stations and others were cheapies. We have one guy with a high dollar station but his rain gauge is shielded by an 8 foot wood fence. I talked to him about it and his response was the software would compensate for the exposure. Well, no, it won't, although you can force a gauge to show higher or lower totals using software. Without being able to see an installation I tend to take all PWS observations with a grain of salt.
Quoting Beathnay:
Thank you.
You're welcome. :-)
Quoting 348. TimTheWxMan:




That's why hail's the main threat. There's a chance of an isolated tornado since there's some turning of the winds with height at the lower levels.


Even next week if the Euro verifies all the deep moisture is going to be trapped across the Gulf as lots of deep convection is being depicted on the Euro mid next week robbing any attempt of a return of sufficient moisture. This I fear maybe an issue most of the Spring as I said earlier with El-Nino strengthening. As El-Nino strengthens we will only see the southern jet get stronger hence my forecast for the wettest April across FL potentially since 1992. I suspect the Euro weeklies and CFSv2 are a good indication that we are in for a wet month ahead here in FL.
Quoting 354. sar2401:

That's always going to be a problem looking at PWS data. No one checks how the instruments are set up and what kind of exposure the temperature sensor and rain gauge have. You can have a difference in recorded rainfall on the same street if one gauge is out in the open and the other is on the lee side of a structure. I've seen a couple of installs with my fellow ham radio operators. Some of them were high dollar stations and others were cheapies. We have one guy with a high dollar station but his rain gauge is shielded by an 8 foot wood fence. I talked to him about it and his response was the software would compensate for the exposure. Well, no, it won't, although you can force a gauge to show higher or lower totals using software. Without being able to see an installation I tend to take all PWS observations with a grain of salt.


I have a feeling the PWS 0.28 miles from my house has some sort of issue. Very often, it shows much different rainfall totals than me, at least considering we're so close together. Also, sometimes it is offline for days at a time, and I have no idea why. I don't have an expensive PWS, just a digital rain gauge that I spent a lot of time calibrating and installing to my PVC fence in an open area. For the first 3 months I had the gauge, I had a plain jane rain gauge operating along with it, and it was always right on. In short, I've learned to take PWS data on the wundermap with a grain of salt.
Quoting 339. ricderr:

I'm surprised no one caught this. Nice swirly off the NE FL coast. Maybe it'll get a name (sarcasm). Cool feature nonetheless.



i see the eye


I called that one 3 days ago:) Back to the links. Beautiful day!
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


That one tiny dry circle is right over my house. Hopefully we'll see that change over the next few days.
What many don't realize is so far this year most of Florida has seen below normal precipitation.

Some precipitation data that might be surprising to some.

Orlando is 1.1" above normal YTD
Tampa is 1.4" above normal YTD

Fort Myers is 2.71" below normal YTD
Daytona Beach is 2.73" below normal YTD
Melbourne is .89" below normal YTD
Sarasota is 2.96" below normal YTD
Miami is 1.28" below normal YTD
Naples is 3.68" below normal YTD
Tallahassee is 1.71" below normal YTD


SE Alabama also continues to have below normal rainfall. The closest official station to me is Troy, and they've had 2.42" so far this month compared to a normal 4.20", so 1.78" below normal. My rainfall has been 2.01", so I'm a little worse off. This is a somewhat similar pattern to last spring, with below normal rainfall for February right through April 29...then we got the flood. I recorded 8.56" between April 29 and May 1. That made the seasonal average for spring look normal when it was nothing of the kind. That was the same system that Pensacola and Mobile over 20 inches in one day, so I hope we don't see a repeat of that.
Severe thunderstorm watch JUST ISSUED.

OK, KS, MO, AR
Hit 40F again today. Another cloudless, awesome day...

Quoting Dakster:
Have you guys got your Hillary bumper stickers yet?

They say "Run, Hillary, Run!"

Democrats put them on their rear bumper. Republicans put them on the front.


I think that would be pretty cool to have.
NWS continues to hone in on this weekend's expected cold front. No 30s are expected anywhere in Florida that i could find, though lows in North Florida--Lake City, etc.--are expected to drop into the low 40s Saturday night. Temperatures in and around Orlando should be around 50 both Saturday and Sunday nights, with highs both days at or just above 70. For South Florida, things look even better, with weekend highs in the mid-70s and lows in the mid-50s. All in all it looks like the peninsula can expect a cool but pleasant weekend, with no danger of the overdone 30s and subfreezing temps some of the models were breathlessly showing just a few days ago...
April 1991 Orlando just over 7" of rain and April 1992 Orlando had 9.10". Interesting as both 1991 & 1992 were El-Nino years.
All in all it looks like the peninsula can expect a cool but pleasant weekend, with no danger of the overdone 30s and subfreezing temps some of the models were breathlessly showing just a few days ago...

my new term for long range doom models.......weather porn
All Nino regions are back above 0.5C.

The way I see it there is no pros or cons in Severe Risk Terminology. If a weather forecaster explains in detail what causes severe thunderstorms and or tornadoes, and he or she has explained it to the best of their ability. Its up to the viewer to "get it" period. If your area is at risk for severe weather that day and all the parameters are in place ie,: high humidity and high dewpoint temperature, frontal boundaries adjacent to your area, and the support of the Jetstream to provide lift and turning of the winds with height, get your ass ready for a severe weather outbreak. Its not ROCKET SCIENCE!! Jimmy Johnson head coach of the cowboys said "hit me in the head with a hammer the next time a draft a stupid player". I feel the next time I make a forecast with all the severe weather parameters in place. I am going to refer to JIMMY JOHNSON

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 5 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 300 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 5 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MOC009-011-013-015-019-027-029-037-039-043-051-053 -057-059-067- 077-083-085-097-101-105-109-119-125-131-135-141-14 5-151-153-159- 161-167-169-185-209-213-215-217-225-229-250300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0005.150324T2000Z-150325T0300Z/ MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON BATES BENTON BOONE CALLAWAY CAMDEN CASS CEDAR CHRISTIAN COLE COOPER DADE DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE HENRY HICKORY JASPER JOHNSON LACLEDE LAWRENCE MARIES MCDONALD MILLER MONITEAU MORGAN NEWTON OSAGE OZARK PETTIS PHELPS POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR STONE TANEY TEXAS VERNON WEBSTER WRIGHT $$


First severe thunderstorm watch of the year!
Quoting tampabaymatt:
I really prefer to use the contours only graphic since Bonnie pointed out where to find it. I'm such a dope. :-) At any rate, you can see that Florida is encased in the 0.50" contour. There's only a tiny chunk of NE Florida in the one inch profile. To me, this indicates that rainfall totals over the next seven days in Florida will generally be half an inch or less, with a few isolated spots wit an inch or more. Of course, I'm firmly ensconced in the 0.25" contour so I can defer getting out the boat and tying it to the porch.

Yo Taz!
You remember me? It's been a long time. I think me, you and Lefty420 have the oldest accounts!

Happy birthday and many more!!

You think El Nino is going to bring us rain in California?
Quoting 370. sar2401:

I really prefer to use the contours only graphic since Bonnie pointed out where to find it. I'm such a dope. :-) At any rate, you can see that Florida is encased in the 0.50" contour. There's only a tiny chunk of NE Florida in the one inch profile. To me, this indicates that rainfall totals over the next seven days in Florida will generally be half an inch or less, with a few isolated spots wit an inch or more. Of course, I'm firmly ensconced in the 0.25" contour so I can defer getting out the boat and tying it to the porch.




You can bet some areas will get more rain than that Thursday & Friday especially if we get stronger thunderstorms on Friday. I picked up 0.36" yesterday morning in 8 minutes from a small cell out ahead of the batch of steady rain.
Quoting 361. 62901IL:

Severe thunderstorm watch JUST ISSUED.

OK, KS, MO, AR



The question now is, will they make it to illinois? There's a little more convection firing in SE MO and S IL so the chance for severe wx tonight won't be a high as tomorrow night. The latter will be the main one.
Scott the Gulf of Mexico is really warm,what do u think?
Quoting WeatherConvoy:
The way I see it there is no pros or cons in Severe Risk Terminology. If a weather forecaster explains in detail what causes severe thunderstorms and or tornadoes, and he or she has explained it to the best of their ability. Its up to the viewer to "get it" period. If your area is at risk for severe weather that day and all the parameters are in place ie,: high humidity and high dewpoint temperature, frontal boundaries adjacent to your area, and the support of the Jetstream to provide lift and turning of the winds with height, get your ass ready for a severe weather outbreak. Its not ROCKET SCIENCE!! Jimmy Johnson head coach of the cowboys said "hit me in the head with a hammer the next time a draft a stupid player". I feel the next time I make a forecast with all the severe weather parameters in place. I am going to refer to JIMMY JOHNSON
The average person doesn't sit and listen to synoptic explanations of why there's going to be a certain type of weather. They look at the forecast, so the NWS doesn't have a lot of words they can use to warn of an upcoming round of severe weather. What those words are and how they use them is vitally important to helping the public understand a threat. Just treating the public like they are a bunch of morons doesn't fulfill the NWS mission statement.
Quoting Trouper415:
Yo Taz!
You remember me? It's been a long time. I think me, you and Lefty420 have the oldest accounts!

Happy birthday and many more!!

You think El Nino is going to bring us rain in California?
Ahem. There are lots of us with older accounts...:-)
Quoting 367. StormTrackerScott:

All Nino regions are back above 0.5C.


Finally looking more like a traditional El nino.


High of 69 on Saturday.
Starting to see some development in S.E. Kansas.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I have a feeling the PWS 0.28 miles from my house has some sort of issue. Very often, it shows much different rainfall totals than me, at least considering we're so close together. Also, sometimes it is offline for days at a time, and I have no idea why. I don't have an expensive PWS, just a digital rain gauge that I spent a lot of time calibrating and installing to my PVC fence in an open area. For the first 3 months I had the gauge, I had a plain jane rain gauge operating along with it, and it was always right on. In short, I've learned to take PWS data on the wundermap with a grain of salt.
Unfortunately, a lot of PWS owners don't take the time you did to make sure their data is correct. In addition to my digital gauge, I also have the Stratus/CoCoRaHS official gauge. This is the gauge you have to use if you're on the CoCoRaHS network, and I haven't found any "analogue" gauge that's more accurate. My digital gauge has a roof exposure but it's up 10 feet in the air from the roof. The digital totals and the Stratus totals are always within a few hundredths of one another, which is as close to agreement as you can get with two rain gauges. In general, I've found precipitation from the CoCoRaHS network to be more accurate than many of the digital gauges used for a PWS. If nothing else, CoCoRaHS observations are taken with the same type of rain gauge, so that eliminates one source of inaccuracy.
Quoting 366. ricderr:

All in all it looks like the peninsula can expect a cool but pleasant weekend, with no danger of the overdone 30s and subfreezing temps some of the models were breathlessly showing just a few days ago...

my new term for long range doom models.......weather porn
Way to the NW of there, lows are only forecast to hit 23 Sat morning after a clear sunny high of 40 Fri, hopefully the last freeze of the year, so we can start warming up the morel patches after that. We may be on the western edge of the cold though.

Despite some pink on radar this a.m., didn't hear any reports of sleet or freezing rain in S C IL. We're a ways from both dopplers though, so probably seeing something higher in atmos. Did see temps right at freezing though. Currently 40 w/ 40 dew pt, 7-9 E winds, 20 gust, just under 30".
Quoting 377. sar2401:

Ahem. There are lots of us with older accounts...:-)

Haha excuse me Sar. Taz's account is a monster. Considering how old it is and the amount of posts. Yours is very respectable as well !!
Quoting 357. tampabaymatt:



I have a feeling the PWS 0.28 miles from my house has some sort of issue. Very often, it shows much different rainfall totals than me, at least considering we're so close together. Also, sometimes it is offline for days at a time, and I have no idea why. I don't have an expensive PWS, just a digital rain gauge that I spent a lot of time calibrating and installing to my PVC fence in an open area. For the first 3 months I had the gauge, I had a plain jane rain gauge operating along with it, and it was always right on. In short, I've learned to take PWS data on the wundermap with a grain of salt.


Had a CoCoRaHS station report 7" of rain one morning just a 5 miles away while mine picked up 0.5". NWS issued a flash flood warning based on the one station. Good thing too, because there were millions of dollars of damage done to a church next to the storm drain.

Still weird to have that large of a discrepancy to be true.
Updated radar image up the blog
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Starting to see some development in S.E. Kansas.
Southeast Kansas? The only development I see is right on the Kansas/Nebraska border headed toward Beatrice, and that doesn't look very impressive so far. The watch area is still pretty free of any development, but this is the kind of system that's going to have storms blow up in nothing flat, so how things look now is very likely to change over the next two hours.
Quoting 385. Sfloridacat5:

Watch the development fire in S.E. Kansas.



I don't see much development.
Quoting sar2401:
Southeast Kansas? The only development I see is right on the Kansas/Nebraska border headed toward Beatrice, and that doesn't look very impressive so far. The watch area is still pretty free of any development, but this is the kind of system that's going to have storms blow up in nothing flat, so how things look now is very likely to change over the next two hours.


See post #385
Read this piece in the The Rio Times. I wouldn't normally post an opinion piece, and my apologies for the headline (although I did bleep it out), but there's some content in this piece that fascinated me.

Opinion: The Water B******s in Brazil

Modern day politicians should follow Dom Pedro II's steps in not only reforesting degraded areas, but also investing in rainwater catching systems in the metropolitan areas.

by Contributing Reporter Alfonso Stefanini, March 24, 2015

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Brazil holds some of the largest stocks of fresh water in the world, but regional water scarcity in both São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro have marked bone-dry reservoir levels not seen in over sixty years. Not a good sign considering last week was the 2015 World Water Day.

The majority of Rio de Janeiro’s tap water comes from the springs born in the Serra da Bocaina National Park, in the state of São Paulo, and are carried faithfully north by the Paraiba do Sul river, eventually reaching the Guandu Water Treatment Station in Rio, the largest plant of its kind according to the Guinness books of ridiculous records.

The Paraiba do Sul River, one of the most important but also one of the most polluted in Brazil, carries within its flow a respectable amount of human feces with the added bonus of agriculture and industrial heavily-laced sewer water, making it the Perrier of contaminated water in the country. Garçom, bottled water, please!
Full article

Excerpt:

"Unfortunately, city apartment dwellers have a very limited understanding of how much water they consume on a daily basis as the vast majority of buildings in Rio split the water bill equally among its units."

I had no idea water bills there are divided like that. In that case, water rationing, or a water allotment per home, would not work at all. Anyone else aware if this is common practice elsewhere?
Nice beautiful days in Calhoun,Ga. I am ready for the brief blackberry frosts, and Easter freezes then it will be full teeth into the Severe weather season. I am so thankful March has been quiet and I believe the last part will remain mostly that way. April looks to began that way, but I am sure the last part will get busy.

Till then, I will enjoy..... Work on Spring cleaning instruments..... and learn to sweat with dignity again ...
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I don't see much development.


It started a few minutes ago. The first cells just started to fire off. Give it more time. It's just starting.

Quoting 264. JNFlori30A:

Time may better be spent planning for probable geological changes when San Andeas pops... imho


We may feel it, but we're actually in a fairly old, dead section of geologic activity. San Andreas is way on the other side - but if your point is that the changes there may have an effect on the shape of coast and valley, I frankly don't know. We're all likely to have more of an effect from the dust it kicks up as it jerks around.

(The summer after the Northridge quake, when I went to visit my mom, that was the first time I had anything like asthma conditions - Reactive Airway Disease, or whatever. Also a friend of mine, her uncle died of that fungal lung infection as a result of the crap that got kicked up after Loma Prieta.)
Thundering and raining in Carbondale IL
Quoting 387. tampabaymatt:



I don't see much development.



It's up by Chanute, Kansas.
Quoting 393. 62901IL:

Thundering and raining in Carbondale IL



A few cells are passing off to my south and i heard a couple rumbles of thunder as well.
Just getting started. About 15-20 minutes of development.
some 'eavy rain expected. Flood watch just issued for me. 1-2 inches of rain expected.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
326 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...

.A VIGOROUS SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

ILZ075-076-080>082-084-085-088-MOZ076-086-087-100 -107-250900-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FA.A.0004.150326T0000Z-150326T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-
UNION IL-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...
PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...CARBONDALE...
HERRIN...JONESBORO...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...
PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN
326 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...FRANKLIN...HAMILTON...JACKSON...JEFFERS ON...PERRY
IL...UNION IL...WAYNE IL AND WILLIAMSON. IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...BOLLINGER...CAPE GIRARDEAU...CARTER...PERRY MO AND
WAYNE MO.

* FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD ILLINOIS TO CAPE
GIRARDEAU TO VAN BUREN MISSOURI.

* PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION. THIS RAINFALL MAY AGGRAVATE
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

JP

Quoting TimTheWxMan:



A few cells are passing off to my south and i heard a couple rumbles of thunder as well.


Yep.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Just getting started


We have storms firing.
Quoting 397. 62901IL:

some 'eavy rain expected. Flood watch just issued for me. 1-2 inches of rain expected.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
326 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...

.A VIGOROUS SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

ILZ075-076-080>082-084-085-088-MOZ076-086-087- 100 -107-250900-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FA.A.0004.150326T0000Z-150326T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-
UNION IL-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...
PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...CARBONDALE...
HERRIN...JONESBORO...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...
PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN
326 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...FRANKLIN...HAMILTON...JACKSON...JEFFERS ON...PERRY
IL...UNION IL...WAYNE IL AND WILLIAMSON. IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...BOLLINGER...CAPE GIRARDEAU...CARTER...PERRY MO AND
WAYNE MO.

* FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

* ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD ILLINOIS TO CAPE
GIRARDEAU TO VAN BUREN MISSOURI.

* PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION. THIS RAINFALL MAY AGGRAVATE
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

JP






Yeah, i'm seeing that flood watch creep closer to STL.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:




Yeah, i'm seeing that flood watch creep closer to STL.


It's gone as far north as it will get, hopefully.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Had a CoCoRaHS station report 7" of rain one morning just a 5 miles away while mine picked up 0.5". NWS issued a flash flood warning based on the one station. Good thing too, because there were millions of dollars of damage done to a church next to the storm drain.

Still weird to have that large of a discrepancy to be true.
It all depends on the type of storm. A gentle stratiform rain should produce totals within a couple hundredths of each other. A really violent and prolonged rainstorm is another story. I had 7.87" back on April 30 while the airport, which is less than five mile from me, only had 1.50". A CoCoRaHS station about 10 miles south of me had over eleven inches. The totals can change drastically within a few miles depending on where the training storms dump.
Updated radar up the blog
Link


New blog entry about the severe wx threat.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


WE HAVE STORMS FIRING.
Quoting Neapolitan:
NWS continues to hone in on this weekend's expected cold front. No 30s are expected anywhere in Florida that i could find, though lows in North Florida--Lake City, etc.--are expected to drop into the low 40s Saturday night. Temperatures in and around Orlando should be around 50 both Saturday and Sunday nights, with highs both days at or just above 70. For South Florida, things look even better, with weekend highs in the mid-70s and lows in the mid-50s. All in all it looks like the peninsula can expect a cool but pleasant weekend, with no danger of the overdone 30s and subfreezing temps some of the models were breathlessly showing just a few days ago...


Dang, I was looking forward to the 50's for high's that the - long range - models were toying us with.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:
Link


New blog entry about the severe wx threat.


Looks good. Just commented on it.
Meanwhile, back on the ranch...
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Just getting started. About 15-20 minutes of development.
Dang. That area east of Chanute went from nothing to some healthy looking storms in less than a half hour. I wish I could be out on the Plains to see this.
And back in the Springfield MO CWA...
Quoting sar2401:
Dang. That area east of Chanute went from nothing to some healthy looking storms in less than a half hour. I wish I could be out on the Plains to see this.


I'm sure the spotters will be active this afternoon.
StormTrackerScott do you think Florida might get heavy rain from this?
NWS Radar out of Missouri
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
NWS Radar out of Missouri


Look at those storms fire east of Chanute!!!

Be back later.
Quoting 62901IL:


I'm sure the spotters will be active this afternoon.


Lots of spotters in the Joplin area.
Quoting luvtogolf:


Dang, I was looking forward to the 50's for high's that the - long range - models were toying us with.
To be fair, there's a small but not zero chance that inland areas on the Panhandle and Big Bend could fall to 32 for an hour or two. There really was never a chance that central Florida was going to see a freeze. The GFS has a well known cold bias with these kinds of systems, and it's rare not see temperatures moderate as we get closer to the event.
Quoting 406. 62901IL:



Looks good. Just commented on it.



Thanks. If you go to spotternetwork.org, there are a good number of spotters north of joplin.
Quoting TheBigBanana:
StormTrackerScott do you think Florida might get heavy rain from this?

From a big banana? I'd predict tasty followed by slippery...
Quoting sar2401:

From a big banana? I'd predict tasty followed by slippery...


LOL
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Lots of spotters in the Joplin area.
I'd be more than little nervous if I was watching these storms from Joplin.
Already a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the system
I have done some more research into the California water restrictions currently in place. In short, it seems like a total joke, and this is why I believe the federal government needs to intervene. The State water board's restrictions say Californians should limit watering lawns to twice a week, should only wash their cars at home if they use a hose with a shut-off valve, restaurants should not serve water unless a customer asks for it and hotels should give guests the option to decline fresh towels and sheets every day. Even the water board’s chairwoman described the restrictions as “quite modest.” And water officials in Los Angeles and San Diego said the new rules won’t mean much because those restrictions were pretty much already in place.

And, anyway, there is no statewide enforcement mechanism for the new rules. Someone needs to step in and enforce some tougher restrictions. This is a joke.
423. 882MB
Good afternoon, to the best family on wunderground. I talked last night about 98W, well recent runs of the GFS and, ECMWF have trended stronger with 98W. They both have a very nice tight system moving very close or just south of Guam, "possibly" affecting the Philippines, though long way out. So like I always say, Ill be watching this very broad but healthy looking Tropical Disturbance in the coming days. By the way I think Nathan's finally out of its energy drink. ;)



98W





Ex-TC Nathan



Quoting 421. Sfloridacat5:

Already a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the system




The area between nevada and joplin should keep an eye on these storms.
425. 882MB
Quoting 418. Sfloridacat5:




WOW, those storms have developed rapidly. Like 30 to 35 minutes, lots of strong forcing in the area.
Another Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Quoting nonblanche:


We may feel it, but we're actually in a fairly old, dead section of geologic activity. San Andreas is way on the other side - but if your point is that the changes there may have an effect on the shape of coast and valley, I frankly don't know. We're all likely to have more of an effect from the dust it kicks up as it jerks around.

(The summer after the Northridge quake, when I went to visit my mom, that was the first time I had anything like asthma conditions - Reactive Airway Disease, or whatever. Also a friend of mine, her uncle died of that fungal lung infection as a result of the crap that got kicked up after Loma Prieta.)
Fallon is not at risk from an earthquake on the San Andreas. It is at risk of a 6+ earthquake from a series of fault complexes in the Stillwater range called the Rainbow Mountain fault. This fault produced a 6.6 and 6.5 earthquake in August of 1954 which caused significant damage in Fallon. It also wrecked the Rogers Dam and destroyed many irrigation canals. There were also two major earthquakes on the Dixie Valley fault, which is about 75 miles from you. The December 16, 1954 7.1 quake was quickly followed by a 6.8 two minutes later. The USGS believes the 6.8 was a separate quake, not an aftershock of the 7.1. These quakes were felt in Fallon but they didn't do any further damage. The Dixie Valley fault is one of the most dangerous n the US in terms of the frequency and intensity of historical earthquakes. Luckily, hardly anyone lives in the area, so the quakes mainly disturb some rabbits and deer. :-)

Quoting 422. tampabaymatt:

I have done some more research into the California water restrictions currently in place. In short, it seems like a total joke, and this is why I believe the federal government needs to intervene. The State water board's restrictions say Californians should limit watering lawns to twice a week, should only wash their cars at home if they use a hose with a shut-off valve, restaurants should not serve water unless a customer asks for it and hotels should give guests the option to decline fresh towels and sheets every day. Even the water board’s chairwoman described the restrictions as “quite modest.” And water officials in Los Angeles and San Diego said the new rules won’t mean much because those restrictions were pretty much already in place.

And, anyway, there is no statewide enforcement mechanism for the new rules. Someone needs to step in and enforce some tougher restrictions. This is a joke.


This makes me look odd (does this opinion make my butt look fat? :)) but frankly I think the only thing they're doing as far as water restrictions go are toughening firearms laws. I've noted this in the past (think it's in one of my rare blog entries) but I feel as though the only thing they're really concerned about are the angry rural farmers and watermasters duking it out with the water districts, or each other - and when those restrictions hit the urban areas during the hot, hot summer - it's going to be ugly. Because you know (at least I am making a pessimistic guess) that when restrictions get hard*ss, it's going to affect the poorer neighborhoods first and worst.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 427. sar2401:

Fallon is not at risk from an earthquake on the San Andreas. It is at risk of a 6+ earthquake from a series of fault complexes in the Stillwater range called the Rainbow Mountain fault. This fault produced a 6.6 and 6.5 earthquake in August of 1954 which caused significant damage in Fallon. It also wrecked the Rogers Dam and destroyed many irrigation canals. There were also two major earthquakes on the Dixie Valley fault, which is about 75 miles from you. The December 16, 1954 7.1 quake was quickly followed by a 6.8 two minutes later. The USGS believes the 6.8 was a separate quake, not an aftershock of the 7.1. These quakes were felt in Fallon but they didn't do any further damage. The Dixie Valley fault is one of the most dangerous n the US in terms of the frequency and intensity of historical earthquakes. Luckily, hardly anyone lives in the area, so the quakes mainly disturb some rabbits and deer. :-)




Hawthorne gets pretty frequent tremors, and I've read about the Rainbow Mountain fault and quakes. I guess if anything local will happen, best if it does so around July/August this year, when nobody's getting any water. :)
Seriously, I think his response had more to do with geologic activity on the California side, messing with coastal boundaries and being more of an effect on the subject of my question, sooner, than the effects of changes due to sea level rise.

I've felt a twitch or two now and then, but out this way there isn't really much to fall over. Stick framing mostly, and since we personally are no longer running propane (wood stove, induction stovetops, electric on-demand water heater), bbq grills) I feel like the worst thing that could happen would be our damned albatross of a fixer-upper bouncing around on its feet. And we have options too if that's too damaged to use.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



The area between nevada and joplin should keep an eye on these storms.


YUP.
Pretty cool development but the storms are going to form a long line not typical with tornado development. But there's always a chance whenever you have rapid development like this.
Quoting tampabaymatt:
I have done some more research into the California water restrictions currently in place. In short, it seems like a total joke, and this is why I believe the federal government needs to intervene. The State water board's restrictions say Californians should limit watering lawns to twice a week, should only wash their cars at home if they use a hose with a shut-off valve, restaurants should not serve water unless a customer asks for it and hotels should give guests the option to decline fresh towels and sheets every day. Even the water board’s chairwoman described the restrictions as “quite modest.” And water officials in Los Angeles and San Diego said the new rules won’t mean much because those restrictions were pretty much already in place.

And, anyway, there is no statewide enforcement mechanism for the new rules. Someone needs to step in and enforce some tougher restrictions. This is a joke.
I think you missed an awful lot of restrictions being imposed by individual water districts. This is one example -

Cambria Community Services District
Mandatory Restrictions


Water Rationing, March 1: Each permanent residence will be allotted two units of water per month, or four per the two-month billing cycle (one unit is 748 gallons, or 100 cubic feet). Permanent residents can apply for additional unit allotments. If a dwelling exceeds the allotment, a 500 percent surcharge will apply for the first violation, a 1,000 percent surcharge for the second, and further violations will be subject to discontinuance. Commercial users will be required to reduce use to 80 percent of their 12-month average.

I don't think restriction like this are a joke, and they are obviously enforceable, since the water district imposes a hefty surcharge for the first two violations and, on a third violation, they turn off your water. You can see a map of all the water district restrictions at the ACWA site.
TVNWeather Live Storm Chasers...

Link
Quoting 435. GeoffreyWPB:

TVNWeather Live Storm Chasers...

Link


I need to learn to read slower. I read it was TBN... And that would scare me if they were following a storm...
For West Palm Beach area...They raised the high and low temps. for the weekend, but nice nonetheless...



From the Miami NWS Disco...

BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE COLD
FRONT CLEARING THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. A VERY DRY AIRMASS
IS IN PLACE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND H85 TEMPS FALL BELOW 10C
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE HOWEVER STILL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE SURFACE
HIGH IS IN THE BEST POSITION FOR DECOUPLING BY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH A LACK OF HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING, THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT
OF THE EASTERN CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND WEAK WAA ENSUES OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. A SUBTLE BACKDOOR FRONT MAY ARRIVE AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PER THE GFS, ALTHOUGH THIS SOLUTION IS MUCH DIFFERENT
FROM THE 0Z ECMWF, WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.
Some beastly looking cells today. Definite heads up in OKC and Tulsa.
At the very least, you could have some huge hail pounding on your car if it's parked outside.