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Here comes Franklin!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:05 PM GMT on July 21, 2005

To no one's surprise, the Air Force hurricane hunters found Tropical Depression Six in the Bahama Islands. The 4:30pm EDT report noted maximum winds of 48 kt at the 5,000 foot flight level altitude, which is good enough for tropical storm status, but the Hurricane Center has reasonably decided to wait a few hours to see if the convection continues to build before giving Tropical Depression Six a name. Convection has continued to build the past hour--particularly on the east side and in the 10 mile diameter ring surrounding the center. A new center report came in at 6:40 pm with a pressure fall down to 1009 mb, so I expect with the 8pm intermediate advisory this storm will have a name--Franklin. The sixth named storm of this ridiculous hurricane season.



Upper level outflow is good in all quadrants over TD 6 except the southwest, where winds from the outflow that has formed over the strong tropical wave in the Caribbean are interfering. TD 6 has a cloud-free center apparent on satellite imagery that makes the storm look much stronger than it really is. The Hurricane Hunters noted that the center had a nice circular radar presentation. The storm is over warm 29C water, and there is light wind shear over it, so it would be no surprise if this became a hurricane in two or three days. The track is problematic, since the steering currents are weak and the storm is still in the formative stages. We'll have a better idea where the storm is headed tomorrow morning once the 00Z (8pm EDT) model runs finish.

The tropical wave in the Caribbean southwest of Jamaica is much larger than TD 6. QuikSCAT
winds
from this area show tropical storm force winds, but no evidence of a closed circulation. The wind shear over the wave is expected to relax over the next two days, and both the Hurricane Center and the GFS model point to the possibility that this may become Tropical Storm Gert once it crosses into the Gulf of Mexico Saturday. The GFS model keeps the storm moving WNW and into the Mexican coast on Sunday, south of where Emily made landfall.



Once again, we are having trouble with the blogging software, my previous entry got wiped out. Please bear with us as we solidify the blogging software over the next few days.

Dr. Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

WTNT61 KNHC 212256
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
655 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005
AT ABOUT 630 PM EDT... 2230Z... DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAD INCREASED TO 40 MPH. THEREFORE THE
SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN. DETAILS WILL
FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 8 PM EDT... 0000Z.

FORECASTER KNABB
wunderground blogs are being flooded.....
the UCF site has FRANKLIN going across florida in 2 days
is it just me...or is GERT an awful name to be hit by?
im with you on that one....
where are you guys at....im in orlando area
Alabama coast here
BTW...Gert is the name of the UCF athletics media person and if anyone has ever seen her, you would hate to be hit by her
Have you been to the FLORIBAMA Bar on the beach?
uh...yea years ago....live over in mobile county..46 so crowd there is kinda young now...LOL
I was there during hurricane danny....i believe that was the one that sit there for every......80MPH winds
Yes it was...sat in mobile bay..
they let me play here sometimes since I went there in the early 80s..

http://www.southalabama.edu/cwrc/
me and a friend who fell a sleep were there....3am in the morning...only saw the weather channel van and a couple of police cars......it was fun if somebody would have been awake...
Fun..yea Danny was,good day to fly a frisbee 300 yards...no bad winds but alot of rain as it sat and developed over mobile bay to 80mph then moved north..
yeah....memories....will have to chat again sometime....i have to go....later....
Hey outrocket... mobile here.. lost trees in Danny due to rain saturation.
wow..the blog is back open,lost trees in frederic,danny,Ivan..and a small one to cindy..LOL
Lost no trees in Cindy, did in Erin. Crazy
selective tree gathering...LOL..think I have a few more to loose...LOL think I may write in Bark..GERT,FRANKLIN...lol every other tree and compare how they do..
I have 39 left on my property...LOL.

I went to a link here the other night that showed milage on radar when you clicked proper... Cant Find.. Any idea?
thats the NWS new expiremantal page they are working on and asking feed back...yes the topography features and distance calculator are cool..I think that will be the permanant radar image soon.
For y'all who are floridians(like me)watch this one closely franklin has similar steering currents as francis and jeanne, note that jeanne started small and disorganized and became large and powerfull.
were you in Mobile for the "Big One" Frederic in 79?
i'm shocked stove top hasn't come on and started proclaimning how this is the hurricane that will doom Long Island
rich....nova scotia....LOL
I like the topo. but I did not know I was 11 miles from D island, thought 20+.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 25.8N 76.0W...OR
ABOUT 45 NM ENE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE NW BAHAMAS...AT
22/0000 UTC MOVING NW 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE IS 1009 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FRANKLIN WAS UPGRADED FROM A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX AT 21/2100 UTC BUT MORE
RECENTLY AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE HAS FOUND WINDS STRONG ENOUGH
TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. FRANKLIN IS
RELATIVELY TINY WITH THE CORE OF THE CLOUDS/CONVECTION EXTENDING
NO MORE THAN 100 NM FROM THE CENTER. STRONG CONVECTION HAD BEEN
WRAPPED ENTIRELY AROUND THE SYSTEM EARLIER IN THE DAY...WHICH
PRODUCED AN EYE-LIKE "SUCKER HOLE"...BUT THE TSTMS ARE NOW
FAVORING THE ERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 74W-76W. MORE RECENTLY...A BURST OF TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED
RIGHT NEAR THE CENTER WHICH MAY SOON INITIATE SOME DEEPENING OF
THE SYSTEM. WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT ON THE WRN SIDE NEAR THE
BAHAMAS...BUT SHOWERS/TSTMS IN SPIRAL BANDS ARE BRUSHING ACROSS
THE ISLANDS OF RUM CAY...SAN SALVADOR...CAT ISLAND...
ELEUTHERA...AND ABACO ISLAND.
I was not in Mobile during Fredrick, THANK GOD!
where i lived in Mobile in 79..I lost 9 of 11 pines ,three went thorgh my brick house with me in it,First time I ever saw a 70ft. 4ft dia pine tree go up my street at jet speed,was unreal.
here is my story on frederic and some pics...when opens look on left for page "in a storms eye" and click the Photo album feature to see pics under same title.


http://home.bellsouth.net/p/PWP-outsobserv
outrocket.. did you stay for Ivan, Denny?
Yes, I wont leave...
I ment Dennis
I never will again. Safer at home than the CRAZY people on the road. Have many stories of that during Dennis. If anyone leaves, wear your seat belt and a helmet wont hurt. F^%$# crazy drivers!!!!!!!
My first i remember was Camille in 69..I was 10..we had higher wind in Mobile in camille than Frederick..but not that 130mph sustained stuff like frederick with its eyewall,I remember going to biloxi 3 days after Camille,you could go no farther,NO ROAD it ate HWY90...
Has anyone here tried Plylox?
Is that the glue for rafters?
Where in Mobile are you?
No, its a cool looking window fastener. plylox.com
near semmes now..18 miles due north of gulf..near al/ms line
Im just North of exit 13, I10
better north of I-10 than south....atleast higher ground no surge threat
I have an older (1980ish) house. Do you think the rafter glue helps?
but if we get the eyewall of another cat3 or 4..you will be dodging pines...that I promise..
I use hurricane straps...one every rafter with 10 #8 nails.
LETS PRAY WE DONT
most everything built here after 79 has hurricane straps,except these newer homes (1990 to now)...that I fear wont be here,because they have OSB roofs,and walls..with siding instead of brick...yet they pay 200k for them..alot will blow with the wind...
How can that be done with a pre existing hip roof?
from inside the attic...nail the staps to rafters where it ties into wall and at the peaks where the rafters meet.
one thing i noticed after frederic was roofs with 1"x6" or 1"x 4" tongue and groove held,ones with plywood roofs had damage.
Im going to go look
Not good
why?
No metal straps, but 6x6 to 6x6.
I mean 2X6 to 2X6
hey one trip to home depot 20 bucks and a bag of nails will fix that...LOL
And plywood
Forgot about the straps @ 20$
with staps the plywood will be OK...in 79 there were not any straps...
straps are cheap...I just put 22 of them on the porch I just built...less than 2 bucks apiece
Loked at deed, 1978 build
its tested then....it went through the NE quad then eyewall,then eye then eye wall again....LOL...so if it held through frederic,unless we get a strong cat4 or 5...you OK,but the straps cant hurt...LOL
Hey, I enjoyed it. I am going to go eat now. Hope we get together again here.

Tom
If there was anything good at all about Frederic and Hugo it was the fact they opened alot of eyes in constuction metheods for high winds...notice most new house have HIGH pitched roofs,thats so the dont act like the wing of an aircraft with wind going over and creating lift under it...higher the pitch the safer in wind,..the flatter the worse...
Plylox are horrible. You have to cut the wood within about 1/4" tolerance. Elsewise, they won't hold the wood in place. Waste of money!