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Henri nearly dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:38 PM GMT on October 08, 2009

Tropical Depression Henri continues to suffer from high wind shear of 20 knots, and appears on its way to dissipation. Visible satellite loops show that the shear has exposed Henri's low level center to view, and this center has become less circular and not as well defined. Henri's heavy thunderstorms have been shrinking in areal coverage and intensity, and are displaced from the center--signs of a highly sheared tropical storm that has little time left to live.

All of the reliable global computer models show weakening and dissipation of Henri by Friday, due to high wind shear. Wind shear in the vicinity of Henri's remains is predicted to fall to the moderate range by Saturday, but at that time it appears that the storm will be moving over the Dominican Republic, which will disrupt whatever is left of the storm's circulation. Henri's remains may bring heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches the the Dominican Republic and Haiti Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the remains of Henri will likely be moving across Florida and/or Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico, where we will need to watch the system for re-development.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Henri (top) and a new tropical wave we're watching (bottom). The tropical wave south of Henri, just off the coast of South America, has become disorganized.

Tropical wave south of Henri
A tropical wave south of Henri, just north of the coast of South America and a few hundred miles east-southeast of the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands, has grown less organized since yesterday. Both the areal coverage and intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and there are no signs of organization to the cloud pattern. This wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear, but is too close to the Equator to be able to take advantage of the Earth's spin to help it spin up into a tropical depression very quickly. Also, the wave may pull in some dry, stable air from South America as it scoots just north of the coast over the next few days. NHC is giving this disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) or developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. There are no computer models showing development of this system.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Typhoon Melor
Typhoon Melor made landfall yesterday on Japan's Honshu Island south of Osaka as a Category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. The typhoon killed two people and caused some moderate damage to the coastal region of southern Japan where it came ashore.

In the Philippines, Tropical Depression Parma is making its third traverse over the Philippines' Luzon Island. is expected to dump up to six more inches of rain today over the already sodden portions of northern Luzon. The storm is being blamed for 22 deaths and millions in agricultural damage.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

For later on a more crucial aspect of 92l is how much WNW will i go degrees wise, a higher degree of WNW may give it a chance to hit the Yucatan while a lower degree of WNW send it into central America.
Quoting Grothar:


When these systems are at too low a latitude, they don't do well, do they? Saw a graphic today on the blog of "Dog" I believe. that stayed south all the way, but I would assume that is a rarity. Thanks for the info.


10 degrees north is pretty much the limit for the corealis (spinning) effect of the earths rotation so storms can develop... in the atlantic at least. This is north of that. It's main issue will be land interaction on the south side.

be back late tonight or tomorrow to blob-cast with y'all. :)
Henri expose LLCC is interacting with pre-frontal flow from the advancing frontal trough.

Quoting Weather456:
92L is moving wnw and has been doing since I spoke this time yesterday. Interaction with SA as the NHC said maybe indirectly rather than directly.


Indeed. Despite an increase in convection, 92L looks very disorganized at the moment. We're pretty much back to what we were at this time yesterday, and given that in 24 hours it will be in the graveyard for storms (eastern Caribbean) it needs to get going in a hurry or it probably won't at all.

505. 100l
Why isn't there a floater over 92L?
Quoting Weather456:
Good evening all


Hey Weather456! Is the shear supposed to lessen by the DR?
503. I saw that, I was wondering where is was getting convection from.
I'm out for the night... Good evening everyone!

Surface observations show no evidence of a surface low pressure with 92L. 92L broad and ill-defined circulation is locked in the mid levels. As the system leaves the area of divergence off the northwestern South American coast, the system will be more inclined to deal with dry continental air and upper level convergence.
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
I'm out for the night... Good evening everyone!



you too
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Indeed. Despite an increase in convection, 92L looks very disorganized at the moment. We're pretty much back to what we were at this time yesterday, and given that in 24 hours it will be in the graveyard for storms (eastern Caribbean) it needs to get going in a hurry or it probably won't at all.



I don't really agree with the graveyard theory, its the conditions that count, granted storms develop quite slowly in the Eastern Caribbean.
Quoting Weather456:
Henri expose LLCC is interacting with pre-frontal flow from the advancing frontal trough.



Wait didn't that happen with the remnants of Fred? Interesting, didn't think about that one, thanks 456 :)
505. 100l 2:27 PM PDT on October 08, 2009
Why isn't there a floater over 92L?



because it learned how to swim....
Today, The Moon...(but what next?)

At 7:30 AM EDT on October 9, NASA will fly a rocket motor into a lunar south pole crater in hopes of finding evidence of a gargantuan abundance of frozen water. A discovery of this magnitude will surely reignite a space race to establish a permanent human presence on the moon to both mine it (think H3) and use it as a launching platform for inter-solar system excursions.

But what else can man expect to accomplish in the upcoming centuries?

Terra-forming Mars? Unlikely as Mars does not have a magnetic field to protect it from solar radiation.

The discovery of life on one of the inner moons of the gas giants? Perhaps, but these inner moons are all in regions of extremely high radioactive fields, and in order to even send nuclear submersibles with a few massively parallel processor satellites (think artificial intelligence / real-time decision making here) would require great leaps in the field of hardened electronics. We're no where near to having that ability yet.

But what about even further in the future! Say centuries upon centuries, should man survive through the eons (think global warming here {ha!}.)

We already know that Einstein's Theory of Relativity precludes human beings from traveling at or near the speed of light...and even if we could, it would still take a very long time to travel to even our nearest stellar neighbors.

What is more likely, over the course of so much time...is that we do to the solar system what we do with our perishable food when it's time to eat it.

Where do you store perishable food when you want it last and last?

Most of us use a freezer, and when we're ready to eat our frozen food, we thaw it (some can be nuked into edibility, but think "thaw" here only.) Amazingly, our solar system came equipped with its own "freezer," the gaseous giants billions of miles from the sun. Around them orbit "frozen" worlds, moons that offer mankind a chance to do something not many people think possible, which is to move these worlds from their icy orbits into new orbits within the habitable zone.

What? you say!! Move moons from way out there to in here? Can't be done.

Well, actually it can be done, and I'll leave it at that, so that those of you interested in the idea can work it out. There is a way to do it, I can tell you that.

So there it is. Mankind's distant future, terminally bound to this solar system, and not happy to have only Earth to call home.
Quoting Weather456:
Henri expose LLCC is interacting with pre-frontal flow from the advancing frontal trough.

whats thats mean? to us here in PR
Quoting tornadodude:


well good for you, are you looking for a cookie? a gold star?
I want the recognition and respect that Dr Lyons and Masters get. I want to take my place alongside the great ones like Dr.Celsius.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey Weather456! Is the shear supposed to lessen by the DR?


yea...It already has
Hey all from Seattle

63degrees F
Low is 39Degrees F tonight

Saturday through monday lows are suppose to drop in the 20's for my area
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I want the recognition and respect that Dr Lyons and Masters get. I want to take my place alongside the great ones like Dr.Celsius.


Keep it up, you'll never have respect from anyone by the way you act on here.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I want the recognition and respect that Dr Lyons and Masters get. I want to take my place alongside the great ones like Dr.Celsius.


Respect is earned, and by telling people on here that we dont know what we are talking about and by bragging to us, you arent earning it
Quoting luigi18:
whats thats mean? to us here in PR


As I said on my blog over the past 3 days, Henri will encounter this trough and could of been pulled out to sea. However, I stated that this possibility was fading since the trough was already lifting to its north. That visible imagery was just showing Henri's expose center in relation to the pre-frontal flow. I really does not mean much for Puerto Rico but scattered debris showers.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I want the recognition and respect that Dr Lyons and Masters get. I want to take my place alongside the great ones like Dr.Celsius.


"I" aren't you on a met team?
Quoting ElConando:


I don't really agree with the graveyard theory, its the conditions that count, granted storms develop quite slowly in the Eastern Caribbean.


true
Thanks 456 will see!
Quoting Weather456:


As I said on my blog over the past 3 days, Henri will encounter this trough and could of been pulled out to sea. However, I stated that this possibility was fading since the trough was already lifting to its north. That visible imagery was just showing Henri's expose center in relation to the pre-frontal flow. I really does not mean much for Puerto Rico but scattered debris showers.


I'm happy we don't have to worry about regeneration anymore.
Quoting tornadodude:


Respect is earned, and by telling people on here that we dont know what we are talking about and by bragging to us, you arent earning it
You and Reed lighten up. The crow soup is on the stove.
I'm happy we don't have to worry about regeneration anymore.

what do you mean "anymore"?

( cue creepy music )
who u talking to?


The guy who mentioned the condensation on his hat when stepping outside.
Its become quite clear to me who Kerry in Nola is,
STORMTOP, being well STORMTOP.
were still watching?
Quoting ElConando:


I'm happy we don't have to worry about regeneration anymore.


why?
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
You and Reed lighten up. The crow soup is on the stove.


enjoy
Quoting Weather456:


why?


I highly doubt it will regenerate now but thats my opinion so you have yours? You still favor it?
power house front coming down the pike this weekend and another reinforcing shot early next week. whoo! gonna sweep out the tropics man
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
You and Reed lighten up. The crow soup is on the stove.


Alright TACOMAN, we have more then 6 storms so take your crow filled tacos and leave this site!
Henri,92L got a gun barrel pointed at their head unless 92L ducks and stays low in lattitude and hits central america
Also the shear amount of Dry air is not good for any weak system let alone a naked swirl.
Quoting ElConando:


I highly doubt it will regenerate now but thats my opinion so you have yours? You still favor it?


I was actually asking to get your feedback on why not to question your opinion. As for me, I'm not really taking sides, just monitoring Henri. When comes to regeneration, it isn't really wise to jump the gun.
Quoting tornadodude:


enjoy
Needs a little more salt. I now predict that next year will be an active year.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
You and Reed lighten up. The crow soup is on the stove.
Popcorn, Soda, Napkins all set!
After a chilly end to September for Tallahassee it is HOT, well above average highs and lows at the moment.
Quoting Weather456:


I was actually asking to get your feedback on why not to question your opinion. As for me, I'm not really taking sides, just monitoring Henri. When comes to regeneration, it isn't really wise to jump the gun.


There's really no tell what these systems may do. Especially this year, it's been interesting to track even though it's been slow. I'm expecting 2 more storms coming out of this MJO pulse these next few weeks. I can't say it was a total bust, it was predicted to be slow after people noticed El Nino to be kicking in. I just don't agree on basing forecast and stuff by El Nino or La Nina. Anything can happen, we don't need El Ninos or La Ninas to make forecasts. I'll be monitoring Henri and 92L for "possible" further development.
alright guys, im out, have a good one!
Now that Henri can be classified as "dead", I'm focussing primarily on 92L, I doubt that 92L will interact with land, I think that 92L will be 2009's next TD, imo.
Quoting ElConando:
Also the shear amount of Dry air is not good for any weak system let alone a naked swirl.


Okay I understand, I mostly base it off dry air for now. Its covered with it right now. Shear is low but that is really negated by the amount of dry air in the area. TD 2 regenerated into ANA because there was not much dry air in the area and shear went lower, Fred didn't because even though there was lower shear it was constantly abused by dry air. In Henri's case, I believe it will be the same as Fred. A naked swirl pulsing with convection from time to time but eventually losing it.
Quoting ElConando:
After a chilly end to September for Tallahassee it is HOT, well above average highs and lows at the moment.


Yes and possible snows in Detroit and Boston next week. Weird weather :/
Quoting reedzone:


There's really no tell what these systems may do. Especially this year, it's been interesting to track even though it's been slow. I'm expecting 2 more storms coming out of this MJO pulse these next few weeks. I can't say it was a total bust, it was predicted to be slow after people noticed El Nino to be kicking in. I just don't agree on basing forecast and stuff by El Nino or La Nina. Anything can happen, we don't need El Ninos or La Ninas to make forecasts. I'll be monitoring Henri and 92L for "possible" further development.


For me, 2009 has been more interesting than 2006.
Quoting ElConando:


Okay I understand, I mostly base it off dry air for now. Its covered with it right now. Shear is low but that is really negated by the amount of dry air in the area. TD 2 regenerated into ANA because there was not much dry air in the area and shear went lower, Fred didn't because even though there was lower shear it was constantly abused by dry air. In Henri's case, I believe it will be the same as Fred. A naked swirl pulsing with convection from time to time but eventually losing it.


I can agree with that :)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Now that Henri can be classified as "dead", I'm focussing primarily on 92L, I doubt that 92L will interact with land, I think that 92L will be 2009's next TD, imo.


kinda agree with the part that 92L is next in line, we can monitor Henri for regeneration but 92L seems to the focus over the upcoming days.
so, did we decide upon a new shower curtain?
Quoting Weather456:


For me, 2009 has been more interesting than 2006.


I agree, it is more interesting then 2009.
456 I just posted a simple yet good idea of the there is barely a chance for Henri to regenerate.
Quoting reedzone:


I agree, it is more interesting then 2009.


you mean 2006?
Quoting Weather456:


kinda agree with the part that 92L is next in line, we can monitor Henri for regeneration but 92L seems to the focus over the upcoming days.
Regeneration is possible, but not likely, I think that if Henri where to once again become a TD, it will be around the vicinity of the Turks & Caicos. 92L will most likely, like I said be our next TD and will not interact with land, imo.
Quoting ElConando:


Okay I understand, I mostly base it off dry air for now. Its covered with it right now. Shear is low but that is really negated by the amount of dry air in the area. TD 2 regenerated into ANA because there was not much dry air in the area and shear went lower, Fred didn't because even though there was lower shear it was constantly abused by dry air. In Henri's case, I believe it will be the same as Fred. A naked swirl pulsing with convection from time to time but eventually losing it.


To add to that, futuremet made an excellent point that Henri might be heading more under a deep layer ridge which suppresses the cyclone ability to produce deep convection by placing a cap over.
Quoting P451:
U of Hawaii Atlantic Regional Satellite Imagery


12HR WV 92L


should be coated orange or less likely red at 8PM, imo.
Quoting ElConando:


you mean 2006?


Oops, yes.. 2006, not 2009.. typo lol
561. P451
Quoting reedzone:


Yes and possible snows in Detroit and Boston next week. Weird weather :/


I can tell you that here in E-Central-NJ, since about March 20th or so, we have been below normal in temperature and above normal in precip. The long range forecasts continue this path. Should be a very interesting winter for the Mid-Atlantic and North East coastal regions.

Could be a big one.

Haven't had a big winter since 2002 in my region. Just 30 miles north however they've had a couple of heavy snow winters since then just not here.
Quoting P451:


I can tell you that here in E-Central-NJ, since about March 20th or so, we have been below normal in temperature and above normal in precip. The long range forecasts continue this path. Should be a very interesting winter for the Mid-Atlantic and North East coastal regions.

Could be a big one.

Haven't had a big winter since 2002 in my region. Just 30 miles north however they've had a couple of heavy snow winters since then just not here.


You mean 2003 right? 2002 only had one snowstorm on January 19, well on Long Island that is.. After I moved, 2003 started a train of winter storms for my old hometown. However, there was one very early snowstorm in December of 2002.
563. P451
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
should be coated orange or less likely red at 8PM, imo.


Not so sure. I don't see the twist it had earlier this AM. It has convection but not organized convection. It may go orange but I think that might be a false "hope".

I will continue for now to be in the camp of thinking that it will possibly hold together and possibly be a threat once it gets near the western caribbean. From there, as we all know, if the conditions are right, and given all that heat potential that has not been tapped even once, a dangerous storm is a possibility.

Although, this season has been an odd one, so maybe the (cliche) that systems that don't generate by the time they reach the Islands they don't generate until they reach the central caribbean. The East Caribbean has been known to be a dead zone.

But again this season has been an odd one so who knows.

Still in watching mode not predicting mode for 92L.
Remember the rule.


If a system hasn't developed by the time it enters the east carrib. They don't develope untill they get to the central or western. (If at all).
565. P451
Quoting reedzone:


You mean 2003 right? 2002 only had one snowstorm on January 19, well on Long Island that is.. After I moved, 2003 started a train of winter storms for my old hometown. However, there was one very early snowstorm in December of 2002.


It's been a long time so maybe it was 2003. I just recall having a 24 incher in February of that year - on top of a good 6 incher just a few days prior. It may have been 2003 now that I think about it. Some family came down with my newborn niece (of 3 months) and we got hammered with the storm. She will be 7+3 months this coming February.

So you're correct.

2003.

That's about right....where I live in Monmouth County NJ we get it good about every six or seven years. All signs point to us getting it this year.
Looks like Henri is trying to blow up a little convection.
Quoting P451:


It's been a long time so maybe it was 2003. I just recall having a 24 incher in February of that year - on top of a good 6 incher just a few days prior. It may have been 2003 now that I think about it. Some family came down with my newborn niece (of 3 months) and we got hammered with the storm. She will be 7+3 months this coming February.

So you're correct.

2003.

That's about right....where I live in Monmouth County NJ we get it good about every six or seven years. All signs point to us getting it this year.


Yeah you guys got slammed with the Presidents Day Blizzard of 2003. 2 blizzards that year, one in February and December.
Looks like 92L will pass mostly north of Trinidad. Should get some nice rains though. Grenada and St.Vincent will probably feel more weather than Trinidad.
First showers from the system falling this afternoon here, and some thunder to the north. No problem with that at all...
The ECMWF and GFS show dry air being prevalent in the Caribbean:

Quoting Drakoen:
The ECMWF and GFS show dry air being prevalent in the Caribbean:



don't need a model to see that.
456, The NHC doesnt give 92L much hope! I know they only go 48hours out, but dont they also see the potential in storms in real time like the experienced people like yourself on this site? Thanks
Quoting P451:


Not so sure. I don't see the twist it had earlier this AM. It has convection but not organized convection. It may go orange but I think that might be a false "hope".

I will continue for now to be in the camp of thinking that it will possibly hold together and possibly be a threat once it gets near the western caribbean. From there, as we all know, if the conditions are right, and given all that heat potential that has not been tapped even once, a dangerous storm is a possibility.

Although, this season has been an odd one, so maybe the (cliche) that systems that don't generate by the time they reach the Islands they don't generate until they reach the central caribbean. The East Caribbean has been known to be a dead zone.

But again this season has been an odd one so who knows.

Still in watching mode not predicting mode for 92L.
Odd, yes, The western caribbean has been the dead zone this year not even a TD , so far. Most of the season systems came from CV waves , except for Claudette of course, in the GOM,
Good evening...
By early next week, it's likely the news will be about Melor, not Henri.

"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
236 PM PDT THU OCT 8 2009

...STRONG STORM SYSTEM ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...FORMER WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOON MELOR...WILL
EJECT INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY
WILL INTENSIFY THE JET...WHICH WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE RIDGE CENTER WILL RETROGRADE TO NORTHERN ALASKA WITH THE
JET RACING TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.

WARM ADVECTION/WARM FRONTAL RAINS WILL START ON MONDAY...SPREADING
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS COULD BEGIN TO PICK UP MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE RAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE BLOWING DUST AND DIRT FROM THE FIELDS
ACROSS ROADWAYS. RAIN AND WIND WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 295K LEVEL
WITH 50+ KT UPGLIDE. TPW VALUES WILL BE GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES. 925
MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 50+ KT...PERPENDICULAR TO THE HILLS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 5 INCHES. THE
HILLS COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 8 INCHES.
FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HELP PINPOINT THE AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAIN. THE
GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AMONG ITS
MEMBERS...WHICH INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...EVEN
THOUGH IT IS STILL FIVE DAYS AWAY.
Good Night Folks.....Let's see how 92 fares by tommorow morning...Hopfully not too much rain for our folks in the Windwards.
Quoting Drakoen:
The ECMWF and GFS show dry air being prevalent in the Caribbean:



With that DLM High along with a negative MJO in the area... sinking air will present some challenges to 92L. Now if it's able to keep south enough and not hug the southern periphery of the DLM High to its N / NW then it will be able to survive, but not sure about actual development to no more than what Heri experienced.


I am off to bed, but is there a flare-up right over the center of circulation, or are my eyes getting tired. Now don't all jump at once. One criticism at a time shall suffice.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Looks like Henri is trying to blow up a little convection.


Hey Doug! :)

Wassup bro! Miss ya

My love to you and your family.
Quoting Grothar:


I am off to bed, but is there a flare-up right over the center of circulation, or are my eyes getting tired. Now don't all jump at once. One criticism at a time shall suffice.
your right
Since the SHIPS conditions is based on the GFS it shows RH values of 60% as 92L moves through the Caribbean and that is the average through 700-500 mb.
Shear has relaxed on Henri, now it has to deal with downward dry air and then possible land interaction! What else is new this season it seems like a storm will get a couple things going for it and then splat, bam, capooee!!! Except for Bill of course!
Quoting 100l:
Why isn't there a floater over 92L?


WS flushed the toilet...
Im not a downcater, but every model i just looked at has 92 going right over the top of SA and right back into the pacific! Like it needs another hurricane! Sheesh
586. xcool
lol
Quoting Dakster:


WS flushed the toilet...
That is entirely funny.
Quoting stormsurge39:
your right


Ah, now if I could only get my wife to utter those sweet words but once...........!!!
Quoting Grothar:


Ah, now if I could only get my wife to utter those sweet words but once...........!!!
never in 20 years for me lol
Quoting Grothar:


Ah, now if I could only get my wife to utter those sweet words but once...........!!!


30 here :(
and if she ever did say it, I would be worried of the cost
CycloneOz - Did you go to the orient for the 'canes out there?
Orca - With SWMBO being the nickname of your significant other... No doubt you've never heard those words... (not that I have heard those words either)
No comment.. she reads the Blog :)
Quoting Drakoen:
The ECMWF and GFS show dry air being prevalent in the Caribbean:

But not in eastern.
Fiji area just had another quake. 5.2 this time so not as bad as yesterday.

Does anyone know is this is normal? Alot of attention is being paid to the area because of the Tsunami, so I just wonder if this is as common as a thunderstorm in Miami during the summer or not.
From above:

....""Figure 2. Tropical Storm Parma (left) and Typhoon Melor (right) on October 7, 2009. At the time, Melor was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds, and Parma was a tropical storm with 60 mph winds. The two storms were close enough together that they rotated around a common center counter-clockwise, in an interaction known as the Fujiwara Effect. This forced Parma to reverse course and pass over the Philippines from west to east, after the storm had already crossed the islands from east to west. Now that Melor is gone, Parma is crossing the Philippines once more from east to west."".....



Phillipines are like, "W.T.P?"

(hopefully I'm not the only one that gets that...)
597. KBH
what's the latest on 92L?
Quoting Orcasystems:


30 here :(
and if she ever did say it, I would be worried of the cost


I shall leave you with this quote:

A psychiatrist is a person who will give you expensive answers that your wife will give you for free”

Of course, if you all never hear from me again, you will know who read this. You all stay well and play nice! Nite everyone.
Quoting Weather456:
Since the SHIPS conditions is based on the GFS it shows RH values of 60% as 92L moves through the Caribbean and that is the average through 700-500 mb.
From 0 to a 100%, what are the chances of 92L forming into a tropical storm...I know this is a difficult call, but I am curious about your thinking on this system.
auminer68-

Phunny....
Quoting pottery:
Looks like 92L will pass mostly north of Trinidad. Should get some nice rains though. Grenada and St.Vincent will probably feel more weather than Trinidad.
First showers from the system falling this afternoon here, and some thunder to the north. No problem with that at all...


Not a drop here yet Pottery.
Did they get any tsunamis from the quakes in the last 24 hours?

I see SoCal, Baja is reacting, albeit weakly, some threes and a rare 4 something.

Usually just low threes and below in that region. Expected Alaska to respond, not SoCal.
Quoting aquak9:
Did they get any tsunamis from the quakes in the last 24 hours?

I see SoCal, Baja is reacting, albeit weakly, some threes and a rare 4 something.

Usually just low threes and below in that region. Expected Alaska to respond, not SoCal.


yes, now about 45 minutes ago a 5.2...

--- PcolaDan - Good thing you don't live next to Orcasystems....
606. KBH
rains have already started in the south not heavy as yet, but some gusty winds as well
Quoting PcolaDan:


We know her.
lol.
het dakster; thanks for the reply. i can follow the quakes on the USGS site ok, saw a coupla more biggies this morning.

But...no news on any tsunamis, so I'm guessing there haven't been any?

Anyone?
Quoting StormW:
92L should start heading more westerly in about 6 hours.
If it does not turn west in 6 hours , that could make a big difference later on.
Thanks, Patrap. Guess if the media's not going wild over it, then no news is good news.


image centred at 11.5n/55.8w
Quoting aquak9:
Thanks, Patrap. Guess if the media's not going wild over it, then no news is good news.


With all the Tsunami and Bad Typhoon Pacific Mojo...the Atlantic season has brought nothing in comparison.

A nice Quiet EL Nino enhanced Atlantic..

Always Priceless.
92L is another invest that has a tough road ahead. Conditions are just not that good to get something really spinning up anywhere in the Atlantic for that matter. I have never seen so many obstacles in a season before. A big MJO pulse wouldn't make a bit of difference right now. It really is looking like there will not be any big surprises in the Atlantic for the remainder of the season. The western Atlantic and Caribbean have been shut down for months now. Most likely we are dealing with one of the most inactive seasons on record. I know things can change quick in the tropics but i don't think that is happening this year. Mother nature is stubborn and wants the 2009 hurricane season to end quickly.
The center of henri looks like it has stalled???
619. xcool
looking at 92L
Quoting aquak9:


But...no news on any tsunamis, so I'm guessing there haven't been any?

Anyone?


From AP story I read earlier today:
"The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued a regional tsunami warning after a quake with a magnitude of 7.8 struck 183 miles (294 kilometers) northwest of the Vanuatu island of Santo at a depth of 21 miles (35 kilometers). Within an hour, two other temblors of magnitude 7.7 and 7.3 followed.

The Hawaii-based center canceled the warnings after sea-level readings indicated that the wave generated by the quakes was too small -- just 0.3 feet (0.1 meter) at Luganville on the Vanuatu island nearest the quakes -- to cause much damage."
Quoting Patrap:


With all the Tsunami and Bad Typhoon Pacific Mojo...the Atlantic season has brought nothing in comparison.

A nice Quiet EL Nino enhanced Atlantic..

Always Priceless.
It is good to have a break after 04, 05 and 08.
Interactive map for US tidal gauges - NOAA/CO-OPS ODIN

From last week - NOAA Tide Gauges Measure September 29, 2009 Samoa Tsunami
Quoting StormW:
92L should start heading more westerly in about 6 hours.


Good Evening Senior Chief.

Hopefully 92L heads into SA and not south of Cuba into the bathtub.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI...LOCATED ABOUT 165 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

1. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN
so, storm, do you forsee 92l ever being an actual threat to the conus?
next week the deep trough over the eastern two-thirds should put the final nail on the coffin for the GOM.:)

Hurricane Juan near peak intensity

Formed October 26, 1985
Dissipated November 1, 1985
Highest
winds
85 mph (140 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 971 mbar (hPa; 28.67 inHg)
Fatalities 24 direct
Damage $1.5 billion (1985 USD)
$3 billion (2009 USD)
Areas
affected Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle

Quoting hydrus:
It is good to have a break after 04, 05 and 08.


Once again, 2007 is forgotten. :)
*cough* Dean, Felix Category 5 landfalls, 15 named storms *cough*
92L continuing to steadily get better organized.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Once again, 2007 is forgotten. :)
*cough* Dean, Felix Category 5 landfalls, 15 named storms *cough*
my bad, I was referring to the U.S. Humberto was the only storm of consequence in 07.
92L Early Track Guidance

632. JLPR
even if Henri is officially dead
its LLC is still alive, check out the obvious wind shift related to Henri


looks like its going to be a hot weekend in northern PR with that wind shift
Quoting cybergrump:
The center of henri looks like it has stalled???


i was wondering the same thing
Quoting weatherbro:
next week the deep trough over the eastern two-thirds should put the final nail on the coffin for the GOM.:)


I hope so. This is all I can find today. They were saying a secondary push would send this front south and east.

GMZ089-080930-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 PM CDT WED OCT 07 2009

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALONG 25N DRIFT N TO 27N THROUGH FRI THEN
WEAKEN AND MOVE E AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS
COAST FRI. FRONT WILL STALL LATE SAT FROM SE LOUISIANA AND
DISSIPATE ON SUN.


From Houston

MARINE...
SCA UP FOR ALL WATERS. THE STRONG ONSHORE WILL CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW MORNING THEN AS THE FRONT NEARS THE WINDS SHOULD RELAX.
SCA MAY NEED EXTENDING THROUGH 12-15Z. OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT SHOULDN`T BE THAT STRONG THOUGH THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL MAKE FOR SOME ROUGH WATERS. FRONT SHOULD
COME BACK AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY BUT STILL QUESTIONABLE ABOUT HOW
FAR NORTH IT WILL GET


From Lake Charles

SATURDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH OF AND ON SHOWERS EXPECTED AS THE
FRONT STALLS IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
Quoting Dakster:


yes, now about 45 minutes ago a 5.2...

--- PcolaDan - Good thing you don't live next to Orcasystems....


Hi everyone

I fully expect Alaska to have a large one.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Once again, 2007 is forgotten. :)
*cough* Dean, Felix Category 5 landfalls, 15 named storms *cough*


Yeah we won't forget 2007's surprise either. Now 2006 that was a good year. :)
not convinced its going that far south...I think Central Caribbean...by the way any signs of even a closed anything in it?
Quoting WaterWitch11:


Hi everyone

I fully expect Alaska to have a large one.


This getting unbelievable. Granted I'm no expert in earthquake frequency but I remember saying days ago that this seems like a whole lot of them. And they're still coming.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


This getting unbelievable. Granted I'm no expert in earthquake frequency but I remember saying days ago that this seems like a whole lot of them. And they're still coming.


From USGS

The earth's most active seismic feature, the circum-Pacific seismic belt, brushes Alaska and the Aleutian Islands, where more earthquakes occur than in the other 49 States combined. More than 80 percent of the planet's tremors occur in the circum-Pacific belt, and about six percent of the large, shallow earthquakes are in the Alaska area, where as many as 4,000 earthquake at various depths are detected in a year.
I just looked at the satellite for the west coast my god the storm is huge.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yeah we won't forget 2007's surprise either. Now 2006 that was a good year. :)
Yes, 06 was tranquil, except for the maybe the panhandle and South Georgia. They were flooded by Tropical Storm Alberto in 94, and in 06 the were whacked with another Alberto.
Quoting AllStar17:
92L continuing to steadily get better organized.
Yes, slowly but surely. I believe we will have a tropical depression by tomorrow night. jmo
Quoting homelesswanderer:


This getting unbelievable. Granted I'm no expert in earthquake frequency but I remember saying days ago that this seems like a whole lot of them. And they're still coming.


hi,
believe me I'm not either, but I have watched them a long time and what's occurring now is not the "norm". I know we were at high tide because of the full moon but that's passed now so hopefully it will calm down, I am concerned about the monster storm in the pacific, I feel at times pressure in the atmosphere plays a role and that's has only increased my concern for alaska.
Quoting WaterWitch11:
I just looked at the satellite for the west coast my god the storm is huge.


This one?

Mayan Calenders are selling briskly...
Quoting Patrap:
Mayan Calenders are selling briskly...




Actually I'm waiting to see if Zager and Evans are right.
650. xcool
Quoting Patrap:
Mayan Calenders are selling briskly...
yes, but will Ah Puch be merciful? Ah Puch = Mayan God of death.
Quoting PcolaDan:


This one?



The next one....the one bearing the remanants of Melor, will hit the Pac NW late Monday/Tues. it looks like its going to be pretty big.
653. xcool
waterwitch- my post 602- I agree, still expecting Alaska to respond
Quoting 19N81W:
not convinced its going that far south...I think Central Caribbean...by the way any signs of even a closed anything in it?
Once it gets to the central Caribbean the next stop is 19 N 81 W...
Quoting aquak9:
Did they get any tsunamis from the quakes in the last 24 hours?

I see SoCal, Baja is reacting, albeit weakly, some threes and a rare 4 something.

Usually just low threes and below in that region. Expected Alaska to respond, not SoCal.


you know i don't even want think about one hitting southern california
Quoting superpete:
Once it gets to the central Caribbean the next stop is 19 N 81 W...
I asked last night but didn't see a reply. What part of Cayman do you live ?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I asked last night but didn't see a reply. What part of Cayman do you live ?
Sorry..I posted but missed you.North Sound Estates (on the canal) and you?
642. PcolaDan 7:29 PM CDT on October 08, 2009

Thanks Dan. Brings it into perspective. I've seen footage of the Anchorage earthquake before. Horrible. I guess like someone said earlier if it's not in the news most people, including me, don't know how active things get.

646. WaterWitch11

Thanks. And that is a nasty looking storm out there.

Quoting Patrap:
Mayan Calenders are selling briskly..

Lol. Calenders don't do me any good. I never know what day it is. Usually someone tells me days later what I missed. But...oh no, nobody will be left to tell me! I can see it now. Me stumbling around on 12/22/12 wondering "Where'd everybody go?" Lol.
Quoting Weather456:


Can I have a link that NINO graph.


Sorry 456, just got back.
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/figure2.gif
BTW if you right click any graphic & select properties, it will give it to you.
Quoting Patrap:
Mayan Calenders are selling briskly...

"and from the cave of oracles,I could hear the preistess shrieking;that she and I,would surely die,and never live again"

A.E.Houseman
92L will be dropping plenty rain on Barbados tonight.
Very little rain in Trinidad/Tobago today.
The main area of the system will probably remain north of T/T.

Quoting hydrus:
Yes, 06 was tranquil, except for the maybe the panhandle and South Georgia. They were flooded by Tropical Storm Alberto in 94, and in 06 the were whacked with another Alberto.


Ah, ok. Sorry didn't know about that one. I bet they're not looking forward to 2012 either.
slow night here 92l not excitement enough for yall?
665. xcool



Quoting homelesswanderer:


Ah, ok. Sorry didn't know about that one. I bet they're not looking forward to 2012 either.
Not if it is a neutral year in the Pacific and a busy year in the Atlantic Basin. :)
Quoting ElConando:
slow night here 92l not excitement enough for yall?
Good evening El-Conando, so what is your prediction for 92L?
Storm do you still think 92l will make it to 13-14n ?
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Evening!!! I didn't even know you left.
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!


Evening Storm! :)

"666". hydrus 8:07 PM CDT on October 08, 2009


OMG..the Anti-Blog Post..!

Im out...
Quoting pottery:
92L will be dropping plenty rain on Barbados tonight.
Very little rain in Trinidad/Tobago today.
The main area of the system will probably remain north of T/T.



Hi Pottery,

I thought so too this afternoon.

Thing is, lots of cloud pass per satellite, but not much rain yet, and the area that seems intense, seems to be pushing northeast, as if it MIGHT pass just east of us?

But, I agree, early bets are that it will pass over us.
Quoting Patrap:

"666". hydrus 8:07 PM CDT on October 08, 2009


OMG..the Anti-Blog Post..!

Im out...
My affiliation with the Almighty will save me....
Quoting superpete:
Sorry..I posted but missed you.North Sound Estates (on the canal) and you?
East End. John Mclean Drive.
Evening, Storm, :).
nothing left of henri to regenerate or move anywhere! That is great news. yoohoo! NHC sure knows there stuff, Good job. The wave to the south has a similar fate; the fat lady is singing, and we are all happy!
Hmmm no wonder you said it would resume a more westerly course in about 6 hours.
YES!

92L will clear SA, where does it head after this wnw movement? W,WNW, NW?, probably between W & wnw, not Good!!,jmo
Hiya Chief,..92L interesting critter
Quoting WaterWitch11:

I feel at times pressure in the atmosphere plays a role and that's has only increased my concern for alaska.


I actually had pondered this same thing quite some time back after there had been a good number of Pacific storms and large quakes occurring in the affected areas shortly afterward. I actually took the time to email a professor who was at one of the Texas universities (can't remember which now and haven't saved the email. I also can't remember why I sent it to that particular professor, but suspect it was because I plucked his name from some internet reference when I tried to Google any articles regarding links to earthquake and atmosphere pressure change.) Anyway, as I recall, the professor replied he had no recall that such a study had ever been done (at that time). It seemed he had never considered the correlation, but that seemed odd to me. Maybe he was just the wrong one to ask.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
East End. John Mclean Drive.
We'll have to catch up sometime then?I'm out for now to dinner so have a good evening/back later...
Patrap, thanks for that link.

When the satellite photo is 'rocked', looks as if the strong area will pass just to the east and north of Barbados, partially over us.

We are at 13.1, thus I am looking at the 'centre' if one can call it that, passing about 13.5 / 59.4.

Maybe...the convection seems to be moving around a bit.
Quoting Patrap:
Western North Atlantic
Layer Mean Wind Analyses
Evening Friend
Ok, Waterwitch11, it appears that 2 1/2 years of time muddies my memory quite a bit. The email I received was from Lind S. Gee and he actually was at UC Berkley. (Perhaps the Texas memory was an email suggestion of someone else for me to contact...)

Anyway, here's a link to what I posted in Dr. Master's blog regarding this question on July 16, 2007 (post #293). Link
Quoting Greyelf:


I actually had pondered this same thing quite some time back after there had been a good number of Pacific storms and large quakes occurring in the affected areas shortly afterward. I actually took the time to email a professor who was at one of the Texas universities (can't remember which now and haven't saved the email. I also can't remember why I sent it to that particular professor, but suspect it was because I plucked his name from some internet reference when I tried to Google any articles regarding links to earthquake and atmosphere pressure change.) Anyway, as I recall, the professor replied he had no recall that such a study had ever been done (at that time). It seemed he had never considered the correlation, but that seemed odd to me. Maybe he was just the wrong one to ask.


Hey greyelf, firstly I am an amateur at this.

That forewarned, I am one of those who think that the Earth as a whole, must have interactions within and by its parts, thus everything is linked. The correlations will have to be worked out.
Quoting bajelayman2:
Patrap, thanks for that link.

When the satellite photo is 'rocked', looks as if the strong area will pass just to the east and north of Barbados, partially over us.

We are at 13.1, thus I am looking at the 'centre' if one can call it that, passing about 13.5 / 59.4.

Maybe...the convection seems to be moving around a bit.


You should see a Change in Weather for sure there.
Nighty night all, take care. Time for shut eye.
Quoting superpete:
We'll have to catch up sometime then?I'm out for now to dinner so have a good evening/back later...
Sounds good .
Patrap,

Thanks for the heads-up.

It has been hot (well, others have been complaining ;-) ) for a few weeks here, even in the evenings.

Mind you, our hot is the 90's in the day (Farenheit lol)

But unusually, breeze has been absent.

Kind of points to something building up as well as giving a good environment to develop.

92L seems to be pulling together a bit this evening, no? Convection has focused in one area, instead of being all over the place.

Night.
I'm Out for tonight!
Quoting ElConando:


I don't really agree with the graveyard theory, its the conditions that count, granted storms develop quite slowly in the Eastern Caribbean.


Agreed that it's the conditions that count. But the eastern Caribbean is a graveyard for a reason. The climatology, or mean conditions, are for the low level flow to be fast, making it a difficult place for an open wave to close off its circulation.

Well, with the strong ridging centered near Florida, the actual conditions will be the climatological conditions.
Off topic but those auto insurance commercials crack me up... "Drivers that changed to Acme Auto Insurance saved an average of $500 per year." Well duh! Would anyone change if they weren't saving money? OK Back on topic.
705. ackee
quick poll will 92L be
A TW
B TD
C TS

Patrap called my attention to the Cajun Navy today.
Here's a graphic article that tells an uncensored tale of what it was like seeing Katrina's underbelly.
HurricaneGumbo
Drop by...say "Hi!"...all are welcome...even atmo...

Link
Quasi-Felix

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Quoting Weather456:


To add to that, futuremet made an excellent point that Henri might be heading more under a deep layer ridge which suppresses the cyclone ability to produce deep convection by placing a cap over.


Confused by your statement here... If Futuremet said that 92L was moving under a ridge he either meant that 92L was moving to the west south of the ridge that is centered near Florida, or if he meant it as you took it and it actually moved under a ridge aloft, then he'd be incorrect. 92L is on the periphery of the ridge and is not in a subsident environment due to the ridge.
I'm gonna say this once...and only once...

...it is only because of the high regard in which I hold, Pat, tkeith, and atmo...


...geaux tigers...

...those who know me will know how painful that was for me...
Quoting presslord:
I'm gonna say this once...and only once...

...it is only because of the high regard in which I hold, Pat, tkeith, and atmo...


...geaux tigers...

...those who know me will know how painful that was for me...


ditto... It's so hard to say that but for about 3 hrs this Saturday night, I'm a Tigers fan.
713. xcool



Quoting Greyelf:


I actually had pondered this same thing quite some time back after there had been a good number of Pacific storms and large quakes occurring in the affected areas shortly afterward. I actually took the time to email a professor who was at one of the Texas universities (can't remember which now and haven't saved the email. I also can't remember why I sent it to that particular professor, but suspect it was because I plucked his name from some internet reference when I tried to Google any articles regarding links to earthquake and atmosphere pressure change.) Anyway, as I recall, the professor replied he had no recall that such a study had ever been done (at that time). It seemed he had never considered the correlation, but that seemed odd to me. Maybe he was just the wrong one to ask.


I was thinking about this the other day and googling my fingers off, mostly to no avail. Of course entering "earthquakes and pressure" never crossed my mind. I was thinking it had to be more than a coincidence that seismic activity and storms seem to happen in the general area and at a similar time. But as you said I could find no studies of it. The night Rita was coming ashore there was a 5.0 quake in the SW GOM. And Rita was a very low pressure storm come to think of it. Also on September 10, 2006 there was a 6.0 quake in the gulf off the SW FL. coast. At that time there were two Atlantic storms on the other side of FL. Hurricane Florence with a pressure of 980 on that day. And Hurricane Gordon as a 1012 TD at the time. I'm not sure exactly where in their tracks they were on the 10th. But it does seem like there has got to be a correlation somewhere. And as far as I know there are no faults in the gulf. I could be wrong though
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Confused by your statement here... If Futuremet said that 92L was moving under a ridge he either meant that 92L was moving to the west south of the ridge that is centered near Florida, or if he meant it as you took it and it actually moved under a ridge aloft, then he'd be incorrect. 92L is on the periphery of the ridge and is not in a subsident environment due to the ridge.
Weather456 said Henri not 92L.
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Confused by your statement here... If Futuremet said that 92L was moving under a ridge he either meant that 92L was moving to the west south of the ridge that is centered near Florida, or if he meant it as you took it and it actually moved under a ridge aloft, then he'd be incorrect. 92L is on the periphery of the ridge and is not in a subsident environment due to the ridge.


just got here...so I am not sure what is going on


I said that these deep layered ridges act to steer tropical cyclones rather than helping them develop, due to their influence at the lower levels. The subtropical ridge itself is not favorable for tropical cyclogenesis, for it causes subsidence in the mid-levels and lower. A high that is below 500mb is ideal, for it won't cause so much a cap can inhibit thunderstorm activity.


Henri is moving into a stable dry air mass. It will advect the drier air into its center....committing suicide.
Presslord
How about Roll Tide or War Eagle?
Jesse
Good evening.

Well, on to 92L.

No 850 mb vorticity, no signs of a surface low as per the partial QS pass and about to enter the Eastern Caribbean. All the above would tend to suggest no organization until at least 70W.

This one is a fast mover which will also tend to inhibit organization. There is a "spin" based upon the IR2 shortwave loop but this is well above the surface.

Not an immediate threat IMO
720. ackee
early model runs seem like 92L will track like felix did any thoughts
Hi Kman.
Nothing at the surface.
wow This is incredulous, I never that the air was that dry air. RIP Henri

That is one strong high....

Link
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Weather456 said Henri not 92L.


Gotcha.. Probably why I shouldn't comment when I'm not sure what he said.

Henri is dying in a subsident environment...but it's not ridging...it's actually under a trough (TUTT).

The air is converging into the trough aloft..causing subsidence.
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Kman.
Nothing at the surface.


Hi Chicklit

I looked at the lower level convergence map and there was the faintest signature of that. The 850 vort was also barely evident. This is not a system that is threatening to be a TD overnight.
Quoting StormW:
Update:

Current satellite loop imagery indicates the ridge over Florida has shifted east somehwat, and has expanded, placing the ridge a little farther eastward and sooner than forecast. 92L should now begin to move in a more westerly fashion in about the next 2-3 hours.

DVORAK LOOP


Earlier it looked like whatever is at 15n/70w wanted to spin up. Of course that may be an Ull for all I know. Whatever it is didn't look sheared to me any way. Is the MJO showing up when and where 92L is going? I've heard some saying it will some saying not.
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Gotcha.. Probably why I shouldn't comment when I'm not sure what he said.

Henri is dying in a subsident environment...but it's not ridging...it's actually under a trough (TUTT).

The air is converging into the trough aloft..causing subsidence.


Do you mind showing the exact location of the TUTT?

thanks
727. beell
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Confused by your statement here... If Futuremet said that 92L was moving under a ridge he either meant that 92L was moving to the west south of the ridge that is centered near Florida, or if he meant it as you took it and it actually moved under a ridge aloft, then he'd be incorrect. 92L is on the periphery of the ridge and is not in a subsident environment due to the ridge.


So your saying the outflow around the periphery of a strong upper ridge is not a subsident environment?
xcool, so far there are only four tornado warnings for this front, but I suppose as more Mexican moisture pumps in it will get dicey for most of TX.
Not too much going on tonight so will sign off for now. Have a good evening all.
Quoting TheoJesse:
Presslord
How about Roll Tide or War Eagle?
Jesse



...well....if you put a gun to my head...and forced me to choose...

I'd have to say "Roll Tide!"
Quoting StormW:
Update:

Current satellite loop imagery indicates the ridge over Florida has shifted slightly east somewhat, and has expanded, placing the ridge a little farther eastward and sooner than forecast. 92L should now begin to move in a more westerly fashion in about the next 2-3 hours.

DVORAK LOOP


So, you're no longer expecting 92L to make it to the NW Carib. Storm?
Quoting Weather456:


For me, 2009 has been more interesting than 2006.


The Atlantic have become a lecherous place. These systems need to start dressing themselves and stop swirling naked.
735. xcool
redwagon .yeah .i hope get rain
Quoting Greyelf:
Ok, Waterwitch11, it appears that 2 1/2 years of time muddies my memory quite a bit. The email I received was from Lind S. Gee and he actually was at UC Berkley. (Perhaps the Texas memory was an email suggestion of someone else for me to contact...)

Anyway, here's a link to what I posted in Dr. Master's blog regarding this question on July 16, 2007 (post #293). Link


hi,
i had to step out for a few. this is a hard argument. how can anyone really know? get a room full of scientist and geologist and they will all have there own theories. sometimes you just have to see things for what they are and create your own opinion. I was happy to see your posts and your contact with that professor. Be interesting to what a geologist would say, I know there some out there who do think there is a relation.
Quoting StormW:


Not since early this morning...unless the steering pattern changes again.


awesome, sir. i guess this means that we've doged yet anotehr bullet, then? :)
Quoting StormW:


All going to depend on forward speed Stef. Right now, with the change in the steering layers forecast from yesterday, 92L may stay south, but posibly a tad further north than the model guidance...in any event, it would have to make it to the western Caribbean, or into the GOMEX around mid month. Unless the steering forecast changes, looks slim at the current moment for either one. This season is the most I've seen steering change so often.


Ok. Thank you. :) I wouldn't want to see one collide with an upward MJO in that hot water. And this season has been an odd one. But it hasn't been boring. Frustrating but not boring. Lol.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


awesome, sir. i guess this means that we've doged yet anotehr bullet, then? :)
Not necessarily as you should know by now that things are constantly changing.
Quoting presslord:
I'm gonna say this once...and only once...

...it is only because of the high regard in which I hold, Pat, tkeith, and atmo...


...geaux tigers...

...those who know me will know how painful that was for me...

Oh my.

(Quoted so you cannot edit it.)
Just have to say WOW to how impressive and how strong this high pressure ridge over Florida and the GOM looks in the latest steering current map.

743. beell
These soundings are about 3 hrs old.

00Z 10/9 Sounding-Barbados
Moist all the way through the column. 92L is not moisture starved yet.
25-30knots easterly flow all the way up except for a slight cyclonic turn/break near 500-600mb.


00Z 10/09 Sounding-Trinidad
No lack of moisture near the wave here either.
20knots from the E almost all the way up-again with the break at 500-600mb


May not want to put a lot of faith in the upper air soundings from Jamaica. 224 knots from the west at 500mb may be incorrect!


This one is probably a little closer to the truth.
00Z 10/09 Sounding-Caymans
A lot drier
Still with the easterly flow and stronger at the upper levels
Quoting atmoaggie:

Oh my.

(Quoted so you cannot edit it.)


Just looked them up on the web.. appears they have a better team then the Bucs :)
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just have to say WOW to how impressive and how strong this high pressure ridge over Florida and the GOM looks in the latest steering current map.

Which would result in what for 92L ?
Quoting beell:
These soundings are about 3 hrs old.

00Z 10/9 Sounding-Barbados
Moist all the way through the column. 92L is not moisture starved yet.
25-30knots easterly flow all the way up except for a slight cyclonic turn/break near 500-600mb.


00Z 10/09 Sounding-Trinidad
No lack of moisture near the wave here either.
20knots from the E almost all the way up-again with the break at 500-600mb


May not want to put a lot of faith in the upper air soundings from Jamaica. 224 knots from the west at 500mb may be incorrect!


This one is probably a little closer to the truth.
00Z 10/09 Sounding-Caymans
A lot drier
Still with the easterly flow and stronger at the upper levels

The Barbados sounding was a lot drier this morning.
And Guadeloupe had issues with wind speed, but not on the order of Jamaica's.
"224 knots from the west at 500mb may be incorrect!"
Nah, that's probably correct...
Quoting iluvjess:


ditto... It's so hard to say that but for about 3 hrs this Saturday night, I'm a Tigers fan.

But they likely will only play well for one. You know their MO...show up to play, finally, in the 4th.

(Note to Les Miles: It really would be OK to have the whole team play well sometime in the first half.)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Which would result in what for 92L ?


Just a straight west motion for several days across the Southern Caribbean.
749. beell
And that's probably the main thing, atmo. 92L is bringing moisture with it. Sometimes not a good idea to infer steering from a sounding right in the middle of your area of interest-it may not be representative of the flow (speed and direction) the thing is embedded in. But in this case, easterly flow from this morning as well in Barbados.

Dry air may still be a factor later.

Quoting cchsweatherman:


Just a straight west motion for several days across the Southern Caribbean.
Ok thanks.
751. xcool





Looks like ex-Henri & 92l have merged.
I'm crashing early.. you guys have fun :)
Blog Update
The swirl that is Henri now is heading SW towards Puerto Rico, nothing much left of it, though. Unless redevelopment occurs. 92L moving NW but convection diminishing at the moment.
Heads Up for West Coast of North America:

If this hits the us in Boulder Creek in the middle of the Santa Cruz Mountains, it will be a "First Flush" after three years of drought and potentially very hazardous. Same goes (potentially very hazardous) for most of the West Coast wherever it hits, Mexico to Canada.


NWS Technical Weather Discussion

000
FXUS66 KMTR 082323
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
423 PM PDT THU OCT 8 2009

...STRONG STORM SYSTEM ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:00 PM PDT THURSDAY...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE
DISTRICT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE COAST FROM SAN MATEO NORTH WHERE
STRATUS IS STILL HANGING TOUGH. TEMPS ARE MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S
ACROSS THE DISTRICT. THE GRADIENT PICTURE IS SHOWING A WEAK NORTHERLY
GRADIENT OF 1.2 MB BETWEEN ARCATA-SFO AND A 1.0 MB ONSHORE FLOW
BETWEEN SFO-SAC.

WEAK RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO BRING DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE
DISTRICT. WITH THE THERMAL TROF SETTING UP INLAND STRATUS SHOULD
SPREAD LOCALLY INLAND DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...FORMER WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOON MELOR...WILL
EJECT INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY
WILL INTENSIFY THE JET...WHICH WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THE RIDGE CENTER WILL RETROGRADE TO NORTHERN ALASKA WITH THE
JET RACING TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.

WARM ADVECTION/WARM FRONTAL RAINS WILL START ON MONDAY...SPREADING
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS COULD BEGIN TO PICK UP MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE RAIN. THIS COULD CAUSE BLOWING DUST AND DIRT FROM THE FIELDS
ACROSS ROADWAYS. RAIN AND WIND WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 295K LEVEL
WITH 50+ KT UPGLIDE. TPW VALUES WILL BE GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES. 925
MB WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 50+ KT...PERPENDICULAR TO THE HILLS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST AND VALLEYS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 5 INCHES. THE
HILLS COULD SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 8 INCHES.
FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL HELP PINPOINT THE AREAS OF HEAVIEST RAIN. THE
GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AMONG ITS
MEMBERS...WHICH INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST...EVEN
THOUGH IT IS STILL FIVE DAYS AWAY.

THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A FEW
DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE FLOW INTO THE DISTRICT. DRY WEATHER
ONCE AGAIN RETURNS TO THE DISTRICT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC

PUBLIC FORECAST: STROBIN
AVIATION/MARINE: LARRY

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO



Special Weather Statement

Statement as of 2:24 PM PDT on October 08, 2009

... Wet and windy weather expected Monday through Wednesday...

The weather pattern is expected to change on Monday as a potent
storm system moves to the West Coast. This storm system is the
remnant of former western Pacific Typhoon Melor.


Rain and increasing wind will begin in the North Bay Monday
afternoon... spreading south Monday night. Tuesday and Tuesday
night should see the heaviest rainfall and the strongest winds.
Rainfall amounts could reach 1 to 3 inches along the coast and in
the valleys... with local amounts possibly reaching 5 inches. In
the hills... rainfall amounts will range from 3 to 6 inches... with
local amounts up to 8 inches. As of now... the heaviest rain looks
to be in the Santa Cruz Mountains.
Winds Tuesday and Tuesday night
will increase to 20 to 40 mph along the coast and in the hills.
Gusts to 60 mph are possible in those areas.

Rain and wind will decrease on Wednesday as the storm system moves
to the east.

Potential impacts from this storm system include:

* mud and debris flows from recently burned areas this past Summer
and last Summer.
* Urban and Small Stream flooding.
* High winds producing power outages from power lines and trees down.
* Very slippery Road conditions from oil on roadways and wet leaves.

Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or visit our website at:
http://weather.Gov/sanfrancisco for the latest weather updates on this storm
system.
756. JRRP
Quoting jurakantaino:
The swirl that is Henri now is heading SW towards Puerto Rico, nothing much left of it, though. Unless redevelopment occurs. 92L moving NW but convection diminishing at the moment.

to me looks like is moving west
757. xcool


758. xcool
Looks like ex-Henri and 02L have merged.

It looks like Henri's trying to, doesn't it?
---------------------
Nice CONUS/ATL loop:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
what exactly does geaux mean?
oh boy guess everyone took off for the night. Well next 48-72 hrs 92l won't amount to much, atm it looks like at best it may become a TD or weak ts before hitting Central America.
Massive surf seen off Sydney

WILD weather is generating huge seas off Sydney, and a rare opportunity for some extreme tow-in surfing as these pictures from Bronte today today show.

Gallery: Tow-in surfing at Bronte

And the wild weather is set to continue, according to forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology, which say cold, windy and wet conditions will continue into the weekend.

The bureau is warning of dangerous surf conditions today and frequent heavy showers near the coast.
90 dead in mountain landslide


BREAKING NEWS: MORE than 90 people have been killed in a series of landslides after heavy rain in mountainous provinces of northern Philippines.

More as it happens...

Quoting AussieStorm:
90 dead in mountain landslide


BREAKING NEWS: MORE than 90 people have been killed in a series of landslides after heavy rain in mountainous provinces of northern Philippines.

More as it happens...



Was that caused by Parma?
765. JLPR
Henri's moisture is all over the place xD
its raining outside :)
766. JLPR
92L is now tiny =P
Quoting ElConando:
what exactly does geaux mean?


Geaux (pronounced Go) is a play on the spelling of common surnames in La. (Arceneaux, Boudreaux, etc.)
768. JLPR
being so small interaction with land should disrupt it quite a bit



I will still be watching Henri in regards to 456's update yesterday.

This morning satellite imagery continues to show signs that the system is very disorganize and hanging onto life support. There continues to be signs of another center within the heaviest thunderstorm activity further east and south but as long as this secondary center remains open, the NHC will downgrade this feature to a tropical wave. Models including SHIPS continue to forecast an improving upper environment beyond 2-3 days and the statistical intensity guidance has reflected this by showing Henri regaining tropical storm intensity. That being said, the feature will be monitored for any signs of development beyond then or regeneration if it does dissipate.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL STORM NEPARTAK (T0919)
15:00 PM JST October 9 2009
==========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Near Marianas Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nepartak (1000 hPa) located at 19.4N 142.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving north-northwest at 9 knots.

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 21.2N 141.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 21.9N 141.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 22.0N 141.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Hi everyone.
I saw 92L, and it is certainly more circular than a couple of hours ago. (See post 751 for picture at 0300 UTC, and right now it is 0900 UTC.) But as JLPR said, it is very small and unless it grows some convection, the system will be very disrupted by land interaction.

Everyone, visit my blog! It will welcome your predictions for the remainder of this hurricane season!

Anyway, the information was not updated for 92L from the Tropical Cyclone Guidance Message.
This convection thta was displaced from East of Barbados, to over Trinidad, overnight.

To me this is not an actual system per se, but a large wave with convection sprouting up and dispering quickly, in various places.

That convection over Trinidad may just as easily disperse and sprout up somewhere else, just as easily, that is what it has been doing for the last few days.
Obama wins Nobel Peace Price

Congratulations from Germany!
775. IKE
00Z ECMWF shows 92L firing up into a significant system....in the east PAC.

Nothing else in the Atlantic through October 19th. That would leave 6 weeks left in the season.
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "PEPENG" continues to move away from the country.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #37
=======================
At 5:00 p.m PhST, Tropical Depression Pepeng (Parma) located at 17.3ºN 119.1ºE or 130 kms west of Vigan City has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 km/h (30 kts)

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph)

Luzon Region
1.Ilocos Norte
2.Ilocos Sur
3.La Union
4.Western Pangasinan

Additional Information
===========================
Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 P.M. today.
Did you guys hear about Tropical Cyclone Grace did a lot of damage in England, The Netherlands (my country) and Germany?
Quoting IKE:
00Z ECMWF shows 92L firing up into a significant system....in the east PAC.

Nothing else in the Atlantic through October 19th. That would leave 6 weeks left in the season.


Good Morning Ike, happy Friday!

I was looking at that and thinking - looks alot like Jimena- be interesting to see if it pans out.

I notice that you have not been posting much on any impending cold fronts, boy we could sure use one here in S. Fl., it is brutal!
Quoting IKE:
00Z ECMWF shows 92L firing up into a significant system....in the east PAC.

Nothing else in the Atlantic through October 19th. That would leave 6 weeks left in the season.
problem with that epac season is almost over.
780. IKE
Quoting InTheCone:


Good Morning Ike, happy Friday!

I was looking at that and thinking - looks alot like Jimena- be interesting to see if it pans out.

I notice that you have not been posting much on any impending cold fronts, boy we could sure use one here in S. Fl., it is brutal!


Local area...panhandle of Florida...not going to get much in the way of a cool down early next week.

Where you're at....none.

Computer models are having a hard time with these cold fronts...
Quoting IKE:


Local area...panhandle of Florida...not going to get much in the way of a cool down early next week.

Where you're at....none.

Computer models are having a hard time with these cold fronts...


Thanks, gasp, hack, cough......

As usual, just have to wait till after Halloween!
Webicorders on the north side of volcano Redoubt show strange signals in the last half an hour. Collapse of the dome?

Link
Hi everyone,
Come and visit my blog!
Quoting barbamz:
Obama wins Nobel Peace Price

Congratulations from Germany!

How kind and considerate of you to mention it. It certainly is a great honor, and a pleasant surprise to hear while watching the morning news and drinking our first cups of coffee here on the east coast, USA.
Good Morning,

Tropical Update
786. IKE
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

How kind and considerate of you to mention it. It certainly is a great honor, and a pleasant surprise to hear while watching the morning news and drinking our first cups of coffee here on the east coast, USA.


Ditto those comments.

Props to Obama.....
Moon crash in about 26 minutes on Nasa TV. Link
morning
the tropics this morning is not showing much, except the remnants of Henri and the slow progress of 92L. the much anticipated rainfal from this system over the windwards, did not materialised. however my attention is now focused on area in the eastern atlantic, which could be last shot of something forming from this area. the eastern atlantic and the cape verde season is about over. the area of concern is embedded in the tropical wave at 30W. There is some cyclonic turning at the low levels. This morning QS showed a weak low near 7N 30W. shear is in the 10 knot range, but the area showes a weak 850 mb vorticity. the wave is moving to the west at 15 mph
pottery getting it system right over them
8 mins til impact.
Good morning...
796. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT FRI OCT 09 2009

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER
TODAY. FRONT STALLS SAT AND SUN FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NW
BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN DRIFT N OVER COAST MON AND S AGAIN
OVER N GULF TUE.



SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT FRI OCT 09 2009

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANT LOW OF HENRI NEAR 21N63W MOVING WNW 10 KT.
WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W
MOVE W ACROSS SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS
SAT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W WILL MOVE TO 70W SAT 82W
MON AND MOVE THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS TUE.
Nice and rainy morning in Trinidad. Just mild, continuous showers here in the souhtern part of the island so far.
yes stormpetrol that is the area i mentioned ealier. could be the next AOI
Rather anti-climatic on the moon-boom thingy.
It looks like 92L was in its latter stages of organization into a depression when it hit Trinidad. If it moves due west, it's over for this system. If it manages to move more WNW and get into the southern Caribbean later today, it's still a player IMO.
801. DDR
Quoting StormW:

Good morning
Excellent pic stormW,some good rain here but no wind from 92L.
802. P451
Good Morning.
A lot of dry air out there and a few AOIs peppered in.

803. P451
This is old and from yesterday but I found it an interesting read.

===
Severe Weather Bulletin
Date: Thursday 08th of October 2009
ISSUED AT:05:25PM

Within the next 1 to 2 hours, Trinidad and Tobago
should begin experiencing heavy showers and
thundershowers. Gusty winds, loud thunder peals
and frequent lightning strikes will accompany
thundershowers.


The showers can be torrential at times and can
result in street/flash floods, some of which may
be severe. Winds during torrential showers and
thundershowers will gusts in excess of 55 km/hr.
There is the possibility of landslips/landslides
in areas so prone.


Sheltered areas particularly in the Gulf of Paria
may experience usually rough waters.
The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Services
advises citizens to take all necessary
precautions to preserve life and property.


WE WISH TO UNDERSCORE THAT AT THIS TIME TRINIDAD
AND TOBAGO IS NOT UNDER ANY TROPICAL STORM
THREAT, WATCH OR WARNING.


The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service is
closely monitoring this weather situation and
will issue another bulletin if the situation
warrants.

===
804. IKE



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI ARE LOCATED ABOUT
200 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS. REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT.
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS IT INTERACTS WITH
NORTHERN VENEZUELA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

805. P451
Not so sure how trustworthy this rain measurement is...?



806. P451
A weather radar station to keep on eye on over the coming days if/as 92L proceeds west.


Strong winds in this area of disturbed weather, low lat, but might have a closed low.
809. P451
92L



SW Caribbean AOI

Morning All.

Local MET said the models are waffling and the front expected to cool us off in FL next week is delayed till the middle to end of the week, if at all. Cited a regular occurrence of troughs being delayed more and more until they never come.

They can take El Nino and shove it where the sun doesn't shine. El Nino is behaving exactly opposite as it should in my area.

We Need some rain in these parts. Heading into dry season, could spell trouble next spring.



811. P451
Quoting stormpetrol:

Strong winds in this area of disturbed weather, low lat, but might have a closed low.


Most intense MJO I have seen all season...

813. P451
HWRF with 92L

graph says mojo i look visiable no mojo
Well I was wrong!
Thought that 92L would pass to the north of Trinidad and affect Barbados last night.
This morning's images are a surprise, with that small, round ball of weather sitting right overhead.
Rained all night, but not heavy, and no wind. Rainfall at my location overnight almost 2" and coming down harder now.
Quoting pottery:
Well I was wrong!
Thought that 92L would pass to the north of Trinidad and affect Barbados last night.
This morning's images are a surprise, with that small, round ball of weather sitting right overhead.
Rained all night, but not heavy, and no wind. Rainfall at my location overnight almost 2" and coming down harder now.


You have more coming by the looks also :)

Quoting leftovers:
graph says mojo i look visiable no mojo


Analysis shows subsidence, which the visible shows as well with HP built in. The MJO pulse is not forecast to take shape until the 13th in the posted graphic.
Good morning everyone.

It is perhaps a good thing that 92L is so close to land. It has slowed considerably and looks as if it would organise in short order if it had some sea room to work with.

It will be interesting to see what happens when it gets a little further W near Margarita Island. At that position the land moves away some to the SW of the current motion of the system and may allow for slow strengthening.
area 9N 32W is showing that there could be a closed low according to latest QS, winds are in the 30 knots range. this could well be 93L today
Quoting P451:


It will be interesting to see if the area stormpetrol showed at 8N 35W follows a similar path to 92L?
Quoting stoormfury:
area 9N 32W is showing that there could be a closed low according to latest QS, winds are in the 30 knots range. this could well be 93L today


I don't see a closed low but lines of convergence stretching over approximately 5 degrees of longitude. It does however look like it may become an Invest later today if it continues to maintain that deep convection.
Hows this for Baseball weather!!!
Denver tomorrow night!!!



9News chief meteorologist Kathy Sabine looks at the early forecast for Saturday night's Game 3:

Football weather for baseball fans Saturday night at Coors Field. Get set for another cold, damp night with the arrival of a second arctic cold front during the day Saturday. Around first pitch at 7:37 p.m., it will be cloudy and cold with freezing drizzle and flurries possible. Winds will be light out of the east 5-10 mph, and temperatures will tumble out of the mid-30s into the upper 20s and lower 30s during the game.

Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning everyone.

It is perhaps a good thing that 92L is so close to land. It has slowed considerably and looks as if it would organise in short order if it had some sea room to work with.

It will be interesting to see what happens when it gets a little further W near Margarita Island. At that position the land moves away some to the SW of the current motion of the system and may allow for slow strengthening.


If it doesn't get some sea room very soon... I think its going to have a terminal case of landfall intteruptis.
Quoting kmanislander:


I don't see a closed low but lines of convergence stretching over approximately 5 degrees of longitude. It does however look like it may become an Invest later today if it continues to maintain that deep convection.
Back to wait and watch mode on this one next then.
Quoting Orcasystems:


If it doesn't get some sea room very soon... I think its going to have a terminal case of landfall intteruptis.


That it may but it also has an anticyclone that has set up right overhead. The 850 mb vorticity is there as well so this one could be another fighter.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Hows this for Baseball weather!!!
Denver tomorrow night!!!



9News chief meteorologist Kathy Sabine looks at the early forecast for Saturday night's Game 3:

Football weather for baseball fans Saturday night at Coors Field. Get set for another cold, damp night with the arrival of a second arctic cold front during the day Saturday. Around first pitch at 7:37 p.m., it will be cloudy and cold with freezing drizzle and flurries possible. Winds will be light out of the east 5-10 mph, and temperatures will tumble out of the mid-30s into the upper 20s and lower 30s during the game.



I hope the Rockies make the World Series. We'll see how baseball works in Denver in early November.
Torrential rain in the last 1/2 hour easing off now. Looks like we will have a lovely day!
Quoting pottery:
Torrential rain in the last 1/2 hour easing off now. Looks like we will have a lovely day!


Hi Pottery, what is the pressure there now ?. TIA
Quoting futuremet:
Most intense MJO I have seen all season...



That's not something you like to see heading into the second mini-peak of the season, especially in the Western Caribbean. There is a little hope though. Most of the other pulses either didn't happen or were weaker than expected.
Pressure 29.96, or 1015.
Check PIARCO in the box above.
Lil Henri making a comeback?

Shear very low, Subsidence very high. Never know though.
Quoting pottery:
Pressure 29.96, or 1015.
Check PIARCO in the box above.


That's high. A good sign, at least for now.
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922009) 20091009 1200 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 62.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 59.5W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 9.3N LONM24 = 56.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


SHIPS
Quoting kmanislander:


That it may but it also has an anticyclone that has set up right overhead. The 850 mb vorticity is there as well so this one could be another fighter.


Its there... but not very strong now.

Quoting futuremet:
Most intense MJO I have seen all season...



That will help the Central Atlantic wave greatly.
.....and winds are Calm, all across the Island.
Quoting pottery:
.....and winds are Calm, all across the Island.


OK, I have to say it... the calm before the storm :)

Is there a light upswing in mjo today? or is it still going down?
10.8 looks right for the lat. but 62.6 looks to be a little far W to me. I would have thought 61.6 based upon the first few visible images. It is lifting away from the land though.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922009) 20091009 1200 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 62.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 59.5W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 9.3N LONM24 = 56.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


SHIPS


That SHIPS run is about 2 degrees higher than late yesterday.
Have to go now. Will be back later
844. IKE
Accuweather....

"Last Update: 9-OCT-2009 07:33am EDT

The remnants of Tropical Depression Henri are located about 250 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico this morning, near 21 north and 63 west. The area of low pressure is moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph. The remnant low remains in a hostile environment as it is in the midst of strong, westerly wind shear. The leftover wave will still cause pulses of convection and could maintain a low-level center of circulation over the next several days. High pressure aloft currently building over Florida will shift to the northeast of the Bahamas today and then remain nearly stationary through the weekend. This will steer the system more to the west, and it will probably remain to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola over the weekend.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave located along 61 west, south of 15 north, is tracking westward at 15 knots. This wave is bringing heavy showers and thunderstorms to Trinidad this morning and then unsettled weather to the Lesser Antilles today. Another tropical wave is located along 80 west, south of 16 north, tracking to the west at 18 mph. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to Nicaragua and Costa Rica today into tonight. Another wave is over the open Atlantic along 28 west, south of 15 north, moving to the west near 20 mph. None of these waves are expected to develop over the next couple of days.

By AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer"
AAAACCKKKK!!!@
Orca says "the calm before the storm"!!??
I better go and make sure that all my Storm Preparation stuff is in place as per Patrap's lists.-
But I just noticed that Orca did not say "when".
So I dont have to rush. 2012 is a long way away...
heheheheh
Will be interesting to see if 92L can pull away from land. There is no shear immediately ahead if it does.
Quoting pottery:
AAAACCKKKK!!!@
Orca says "the calm before the storm"!!??
I better go and make sure that all my Storm Preparation stuff is in place as per Patrap's lists.-
But I just noticed that Orca did not say "when".
So I dont have to rush. 2012 is a long way away...
heheheheh


You always have to leave yourself an out :)
I expect the Blog to go a little nuts later today when everyone reads the newspaper..so it might be a good idea to just sit back and watch.
Looks pretty calm on the blog. I enjoy this late fall like weather. Snow from 3 or 4 days ago still stubbornly clinging to the highest peaks. Another Atlantic hurricane season just about ended. Hank seemed to avoid the Eastern end of Puerto Rico thank goodness. Melor avoided family and property in Guam and cousins in Saipan. Out to the Big Island in a few days to check on things out there. Its been a great late summer/fall weatherwise. Looking forward to a long cold snowy brutal winter with occasional dashes to the tropics for sanity.
...when everyone reads the newspaper

Orca?
Read?
Hard copy?
Not Crackberry?
851. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting msphar:
Looks pretty calm on the blog. I enjoy this late fall like weather. Snow from 3 or 4 days ago still stubbornly clinging to the highest peaks. Another Atlantic hurricane season just about ended. Hank seemed to avoid the Eastern end of Puerto Rico thank goodness. Melor avoided family and property in Guam and cousins in Saipan. Out to the Big Island in a few days to check on things out there. Its been a great late summer/fall weatherwise. Looking forward to a long cold snowy brutal winter with occasional dashes to the tropics for sanity.
It is good to read a positive statement in the blog. Glad your family and cousins are well.