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Heavy snowfall in a warming world

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:29 PM GMT on February 08, 2010

A major new winter storm is headed east over the U.S. today, and threatens to dump a foot or more of snow on Philadelphia, New York City, and surrounding regions Tuesday and Wednesday. Philadelphia is still digging out from its second top-ten snowstorm of recorded history to hit the city this winter, and the streets are going to begin looking like canyons if this week's snowstorm adds a significant amount of snow to the incredible 28.5" that fell during "Snowmageddon" last Friday and Saturday. Philadelphia has had two snowstorms exceeding 23" this winter. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the return period for a 22+ inch snow storm is once every 100 years--and we've had two 100-year snow storms in Philadelphia this winter. It is true that if the winter pattern of jet stream location, sea surface temperatures, etc, are suitable for a 100-year storm to form, that will increase the chances for a second such storm to occur that same year, and thus the odds have having two 100-year storms the same year are not 1 in 10,000. Still, the two huge snowstorms this winter in the Mid-Atlantic are definitely a very rare event one should see only once every few hundred years, and is something that has not occurred since modern records began in 1870. The situation is similar for Baltimore and Washington D.C. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the expected return period in the Washington D.C./Baltimore region for snowstorms with more than 16 inches of snow is about once every 25 years. This one-two punch of two major Nor'easters in one winter with 16+ inches of snow is unprecedented in the historical record for the region, which goes back to the late 1800s.


Figure 1. Car buried in Virginia by "Snowmageddon" on February 8, 2010. Image credit: wunderphotographer Brabus Cave.

Top 9 snowstorms on record for Philadelphia:

1. 30.7", Jan 7-8, 1996
2. 28.5", Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
3. 23.2", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
4. 21.3", Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 21.0", Dec 25-26, 1909
6. 19.4", Apr 3-4, 1915
7. 18.9", Feb 12-14, 1899
8. 16.7", Jan 22-24, 1935
9. 15.1", Feb 28-Mar 1, 1941

The top 10 snowstorms on record for Baltimore:

1. 28.2", Feb 15-18, 2003
2. 26.5", Jan 27-29, 1922
3. 24.8", Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
4. 22.8", Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 22.5", Jan 7-8, 1996
6. 22.0", Mar 29-30, 1942
7. 21.4", Feb 11-14, 1899
8. 21.0", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
9. 20.0", Feb 18-19, 1979
10. 16.0", Mar 15-18, 1892

The top 10 snowstorms on record for Washington, D.C.:

1. 28.0", Jan 27-28, 1922
2. 20.5", Feb 11-13, 1899
3. 18.7", Feb 18-19, 1979
4. 17.8" Feb 5-6, 2010 (Snowmageddon)
5. 17.1", Jan 6-8, 1996
6. 16.7", Feb 15-18, 2003
7. 16.6", Feb 11-12, 1983
8. 16.4", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
9. 14.4", Feb 15-16, 1958
10. 14.4", Feb 7, 1936

Heavy snow events--a contradiction to global warming theory?
Global warming skeptics regularly have a field day whenever a record snow storm pounds the U.S., claiming that such events are inconsistent with a globe that is warming. If the globe is warming, there should, on average, be fewer days when it snows, and thus fewer snow storms. However, it is possible that if climate change is simultaneously causing an increase in ratio of snowstorms with very heavy snow to storms with ordinary amounts of snow, we could actually see an increase in very heavy snowstorms in some portions of the world. There is evidence that this is happening for winter storms in the Northeast U.S.--the mighty Nor'easters like the "Snowmageddon" storm of February 5-6 and "Snowpocalypse" of December 19, 2009. Let's take a look at the evidence. There are two requirements for a record snow storm:

1) A near-record amount of moisture in the air (or a very slow moving storm).
2) Temperatures cold enough for snow.

It's not hard at all to get temperatures cold enough for snow in a world experiencing global warming. According to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, the globe warmed 0.74°C (1.3°F) over the past 100 years. There will still be colder than average winters in a world that is experiencing warming, with plenty of opportunities for snow. The more difficult ingredient for producing a record snowstorm is the requirement of near-record levels of moisture. Global warming theory predicts that global precipitation will increase, and that heavy precipitation events--the ones most likely to cause flash flooding--will also increase. This occurs because as the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. This extra moisture in the air will tend to produce heavier snowstorms, assuming it is cold enough to snow. Groisman et al. (2004) found a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events in the U.S. over the past 100 years, though mainly in spring and summer. However, the authors did find a significant increase in winter heavy precipitation events have occurred in the Northeast U.S. This was echoed by Changnon et al. (2006), who found, "The temporal distribution of snowstorms exhibited wide fluctuations during 1901-2000, with downward 100-yr trends in the lower Midwest, South, and West Coast. Upward trends occurred in the upper Midwest, East, and Northeast, and the national trend for 1901-2000 was upward, corresponding to trends in strong cyclonic activity."

The strongest cold-season storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent for the U.S.
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change." This program has put out some excellent peer-reviewed science on climate change that, in my view, is as authoritative as the U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. In 2009, the USGCRP put out its excellent U.S. Climate Impacts Report, summarizing the observed and forecast impacts of climate change on the U.S. The report's main conclusion about cold season storms was " Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent".

The report's more detailed analysis: "Large-scale storm systems are the dominant weather phenomenon during the cold season in the United States. Although the analysis of these storms is complicated by a relatively short length of most observational records and by the highly variable nature of strong storms, some clear patterns have emerged (Kunkel et al., 2008).

Storm tracks have shifted northward over the last 50 years as evidenced by a decrease in the frequency of storms in mid-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, while high-latitude activity has increased. There is also evidence of an increase in the intensity of storms in both the mid- and high-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere, with greater confidence in the increases occurring in high latitudes (Kunkel et al., 2008). The northward shift is projected to continue, and strong cold season storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent, with greater wind speeds and more extreme wave heights".
The study also noted that we should expect an increase in lake-effect snowstorms over the next few decades. Lake-effect snow is produced by the strong flow of cold air across large areas of relatively warmer ice-free water. The report says, "As the climate has warmed, ice coverage on the Great Lakes has fallen. The maximum seasonal coverage of Great Lakes ice decreased at a rate of 8.4 percent per decade from 1973 through 2008, amounting to a roughly 30 percent decrease in ice coverage. This has created conditions conducive to greater evaporation of moisture and thus heavier snowstorms. Among recent extreme lake-effect snow events was a February 2007 10-day storm total of over 10 feet of snow in western New York state. Climate models suggest that lake-effect snowfalls are likely to increase over the next few decades. In the longer term, lake-effect snows are likely to decrease as temperatures continue to rise, with the precipitation then falling as rain".


Figure 2. The annual average number of snowstorms with a 6 inch (15.2 cm) or greater accumulation, from the years 1901 - 2001. A value of 0.1 means an average of one 6+ inch snowstorm every ten years. Image credit: Changnon, S.A., D. Changnon, and T.R. Karl, 2006, Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States, J. Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 45, 8, pp. 1141-1155, DOI: 10.1175/JAM2395.1.

More heavy snowstorms occur in warmer-than-average years
Another interesting result from the Changnon et al. (2006) paper (Figure 2) is the relationship between heavy snowstorms and the average winter temperature. For the contiguous U.S. between 1900 - 2001, the authors found that 61% - 80% of all heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches occurred during winters with above normal temperatures. In other words, the old adage, "it's too cold to snow", has some truth to it. The authors also found that 61% - 85% of all heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches occurred during winters that were wetter than average. The authors conclude, "a future with wetter and warmer winters, which is one outcome expected (National Assessment Synthesis Team 2001), will bring more heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches than in 1901 - 2000. The authors found that over the U.S. as a whole, there had been a slight but significant increase in heavy snowstorms of 6+ inches between 1901 - 2000. However, a separate paper by Houston and Changnon (2009), "Characteristics of the top ten snowstorms at First-Order Stations in the U.S.", found that there was no upward or downward trend in the very heaviest snowstorms for the contiguous U.S. between 1948 - 2001, as evaluated by looking at the top ten snowstorms for 121 major cities.

Commentary
One can "load the dice" in favor of events that used to be rare--or unheard of--if the climate is changing to a new state. It is quite possible that nature's weather dice have been loaded in favor of more intense Nor'easters for the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, thanks to the higher levels of moisture present in the air due to warmer global temperatures. It's worth mentioning that heavy snow storms should be getting increasingly rare for the extreme southern portion of the U.S. in coming decades. There's almost always high amounts of moisture available for a potential heavy snow in the South--just not enough cold air. With freezing temperatures expected to decrease and the jet stream and associated storm track expected to move northward, the extreme southern portion of the U.S. should see a reduction in both heavy and ordinary snow storms in the coming decades.

The CapitalClimate blog has a nice perspective on "Snowmageddon", and Joe Romm of climateprogress.org has some interesting things to say about snowstorms in a warming climate.

References
Changnon, S.A., D. Changnon, and T.R. Karl, 2006, , "Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States", J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 45, 1141.1155.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64-85.

Kunkel, K.E., P.D. Bromirski, H.E. Brooks, T. Cavazos, A.V. Douglas, D.R. Easterling, K.A. Emanuel, P.Ya. Groisman, G.J. Holland, T.R. Knutson, J.P. Kossin, P.D. Komar, D.H. Levinson, and R.L. Smith, 2008: Observed changes in weather and climate extremes. In: Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate: Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands [Karl, T.R., G.A. Meehl, C.D. Miller, S.J. Hassol, A.M. Waple, and W.L. Murray (eds.)]. Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3. U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington, DC, pp. 35-80.

Congratulations, New Orleans!
Congratulations to everyone in New Orleans, for the Saints' Super Bowl victory! It's great to the see the city celebrating after enduring so many years of hardship in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

Jeff Masters
Holly Berry
Holly Berry
Wintry woods
Wintry woods

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. IKE
Quoting atmoaggie:

Oh yeah? Well I am not paying any attention whatsoever to the Florida panhandle, so there!
(j/k)


LOL.
1502. Drakoen
Quoting IKE:


It is further north in SE LA. and SE Mississippi, but I wasn't really paying attention to that area. I was looking at my area in the Florida panhandle. Looks about the same there.


Correct
Quoting IKE:


It's actually 4 in a row and 6th place in the east at 63 points.


10-4, I was just funnin' ya. Been too serious for me here lately on the main smog, er blog. :)
Quoting swampliliy:


10-4, I was just funnin' ya. Been too serious for me here lately on the main smog, er blog. :)


Yeah, I can't wait for cane season. At least then most are on the same page and show concern for their fellow humans.
1505. Patrap
Just go North by 30 Miles from I-10 and one will see plenty of fluffy stuff Thursday Night.

McComb,Miss gonna get the Snow Business.

Me..Im Hoping for Sleet at the Muses Parade Uptown here..
Pat, I hope you have been able to enjoy all that comes with winning the Super Bowl!
1507. Patrap
Super time has been had by all here since Sunday for sure canewarning.

And itsa still a week till Fat Tuesday.

So we gonna keep it rolling fer a spell too.
Though Flood may disagree, Janis did have something wrong, I think. She once said:
"Tomorrow never happens, man. It's all the same [bleep]ing day, man."

Well? For Saints fans "next year" happened a couple of days ago. Thus, a lot of tomorrows have passed, as in happened.

So glad I can finally stop wasting all the time I do trying to figure the accuracy of Janis' statement.

Though, she, herself didn't have a lot of tomorrows after she said that. Hmmm. Arghhhhh!

(And swamp is accusing us of serious)
Quoting Patrap:
Super time has been had by all here since Sunday for sure canewarning.

And itsa still a week till Fat Tuesday.

So we gonna keep it rolling fer a spell too.


It will be the best Mardi Gras for sure. I am thinking about heading that way, but not sure yet. Depends on the weather!
Quoting CaneWarning:


It will be the best Mardi Gras for sure. I am thinking about heading that way, but not sure yet. Depends on the weather!


Hope you like sleeping in your car. LOL j/k
Quoting PcolaDan:


Hope you like sleeping in your car. LOL j/k


Nah, I have friends who have a place there.
1512. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Just go North by 30 Miles from I-10 and one will see plenty of fluffy stuff Thursday Night.

McComb,Miss gonna get the Snow Business.

Me..Im Hoping for Sleet at the Muses Parade Uptown here..


Moderate snow accumulation in their forecast...for now.
1513. IKE
Yeah...if you've got a championship...no matter what happens in the future, it can't be taken away from you.

Now it's a chance to repeat.

NFL is the best sport in America. Season is not too long like MLB...NHL...NBA. The games have more meaning...only 16 in the regular season, compared to 162...80 and 82 and the right number of teams make the playoffs....not half the league like the NHL and NBA.
1514. Patrap
We may go up to McComb for the Storm Ike...just for pics and a Break from here.
1516. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
We may go up to McComb for the Storm Ike...just for pics and a Break from here.


Don't blame you.
1517. Drakoen
Baton Rouge has a 50% chance of snow with light snow accumulations. Things shaping up decently for areas north of I-10 at the moment.
1518. Patrap
I got video on the other cam,so in the morning I'll do a "Lombardi Gras" Blog entry on the Parade.

Tuckered out tonight..
Quoting Drakoen:
Baton Rouge has a 50% chance of snow with light snow accumulations. Things shaping up decently for areas north of I-10 at the moment.

I-10 runs right through NOLA. Just as our WFO states, I think areas north of 10 and I-12 is about right. (I-12 is the one on radar plots that runs from BR straight to Mississippi)

(The Drak prolly knew all of this, already)
1520. Drakoen
The SREF 21z gives a less the 20% chance of areas in southern Louisiana getting the 850mb to 0C and it gives the panhandle 40%-60% chance of the 850mb temps running 0C. As far as precipitation is concerned, 30%-50% chance of receiving at least .25 inches of precip.
1521. Drakoen
Quoting atmoaggie:

I-10 runs right through NOLA. Just as our WFO states, I think areas north of 10 and I-12 is about right. (I-12 is the one on radar plots that runs from BR straight to Mississippi)

(The Drak prolly knew all of this, already)


LOL
The models show even colder air arriving after Valentine's Day(possibly record challenging)!
1523. unf97
Good evening.

The models show even colder air arriving after President's Day for Florida with widespread hard freezes!
If anyone here knows how to connect a network cam to a web page, for free, can you WUmail me please. I finally have a 4 port modem/router.
Thanks
1526. Drakoen
SREF 21z:

edited post
How are things looking for SETX? HGX just isn't buying it...
Drak, can SF expect any of the white-stuff from this upcoming system? :)
1530. unf97
Drak, I haven't had time this evening to check the latest model runs, but are they gaining more agreement on atrack across the cental GOM into South Central FL? My instincts lead me to believe that this system will be stronger than what the models are indicating as well.




St. Simons Island blizzard! ;)

1532. Drakoen
Quoting unf97:
Drak, I haven't had time this evening to check the latest model runs, but are they gaining more agreement on atrack across the cental GOM into South Central FL? My instincts lead me to believe that this system will be stronger than what the models are indicating as well.






That is correct somewhere in the northern or central GOM. The track of this system will be critical to potential snowfall as well as snowfall amounts. In regards to central and south Florida, we should see a fair amount of active weather.
1533. unf97
Thanks Drak. If this GOM Low were to track across more north closer to the coast, then significant wintry precip would occur across farther inland into LA, MS, and AL. The central Gulf track is looking more probable as the cyclogenesis is forcast to develop off the TX coast and strong Canadian High pressure ridging down will keep this Low from making progress poleward.
Quoting Drakoen:
SREF 21z:


Which SREF is that? This is what I come up with:

Dang these storms just don't wanna stop coming.

From The Pensacola NWS Discussion...

Winter storm may affect the central Gulf Coast region Thursday
night and Friday...

Snowfall accumulation is expected across our region by week's end as
a surface low pressure system develops and moves eastward across the
northern Gulf of Mexico Thursday night and Friday. Precipitation
will likely begin as a mix of light rain and sleet over the interior
counties Thursday night... especially along and north of Highway
84... and will then change to and remain as snow through Friday
afternoon before ending from the west. Closer to the coast... rain
will begin falling Thursday night and a changeover to sleet and snow
mix could occur as early as mid morning Friday before changing to
all snow before ending.

It is currently beyond the state of the science to Pin-Point exact
snowfall totals because it is too far out in time prior to the event
and many uncertainties remain. However... current trends indicate
several inches of snow could fall over interior southwestern and
south central Alabama from Thursday night through midday Friday with
lighter amounts closer to the coast. The confidence for
accumulating snow in our area continues to increase... particularly
inland.

If this trend continues... a Winter Storm Watch will likely be issued
by tomorrow afternoon followed by either a Winter Weather Advisory
or a possible Winter Storm Warning by sunrise Thursday.

Everyone is urged to stay up to date on the latest forecast and
outlooks concerning this potential snow event. Although
precipitation will be ending later in the day Friday... subfreezing
low temperatures Friday night suggests that lingering moisture on
roads and overpasses will refreeze... creating slick spots and
hazardous driving conditions.
HGX doesn't buy it:

12Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW TO AFFECT SE TX OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL AGREE ON RAIN FOR THURSDAY BUT ALL HAVE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH AFTER 12Z THU.
THE EURO MODELS (ECMWF/UKMET) ARE ALL FASTER WITH THE TROUGH
PUSHING IT INTO W TX THU MORNING. THE AMERICAN MODELS (NAM/GFS)
DIG THE TROUGH A LITTLE DEEPER AND ARE SLOWER. THE GFS SEEMS TO
BE SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN THE NAM AND EURO MODELS...BUT STILL CLOSER
TO THE NAM. MORE CONFIDENCE IS IN THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
SEEMS TO HAVE HANDLED IT THE BEST SO FAR. AS SUCH...BOOSTED POPS
TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COLD RAIN AS PRECIP. PRECIP
TYPE STILL A BIT TRICKY FROM BRYAN TO CROCKETT...ESPECIALLY FRI
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT IF THERE IS GOING TO BE MIXED
PRECIP...THIS MAY BE THE TIME. FOR NOW THINK RAIN IS STILL MORE
LIKELY AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
WHICH WOULD MELT ANY FROZEN PRECIP. LATER FORECASTS MAY DECIDE ON
A MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL RATHER LOW. THE
NAM SUPPORTS MIXED PRECIP MORE THAN THE OTHERS BUT IT HAS A
SLOWER TROUGH EVOLUTION AS WELL. THE SYSTEM SHOULD KICK OUT ON
FRIDAY BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEKEND.
Heres one for everyone to enjoy.....Should put a little smile on yall's face i hope!

Quoting TampaSpin:
Artic Blast coming South Again with Snow Also


Hey Tampaspin are you still up????? I'm still in Kentucky but will be heading south this friday....

Taco :0)
Joe Cocker just sings the hell out that song. My band had it in the rotation for a few years up til recently. It was also an exotic dancer favorite. Great tune! And a weather question. Will it snow down to the coast? What are the odds of snow in Biloxie, Gulf Shores, Penscola Beach, Destin, PC Beach, areas?
Hey, folks...I've updated my blog and the Portlight website...come by and check them out; we have great news out of Haiti!
RSS Lower Tropospheric Temperature also is at a record warm for January:

Nº1: 2010-1 (+0,64 ºC)
Nº2: 2007-1 (+0,59 ºC)
Nº3: 1998-1 (+0,55 ºC)

We will see if the ABSOLUTE record, in February 1998 (+0.736 ºC)is broken or not.
Some other items from this winter and fall . Dec. was the wettest month ever recorded at New Orleans. That was the case for many cities in the southern U.S.
This was done without a tropical system making landfall. The 3 month period before , was the wettest period there on record .
The Dec. storm also set a snowfall record at Okla. City when it passed there. That storm produced a 10 inch rain fall in Northern Miami.

LAX had it’s lowest barometric pressure ever recorded with the big Feb. system as well.
In June of 07′ I watched the extreme rain event at Marble Falls , Texas. 18 inches in 6 hours. This winter I had the chance to visit with Gary P. Nunn he lives there, and was home at the time.
His advice …… ” You better be on high ground when one of these things comes. “
7-Day Surface Temperature Anomaly


History for Narsarsuaq, Greenland

Regarding Greenland weather, their mild winter temperatures are actually quite extraordinary and unprecedented. Narsarsuaq is running more than 30 degrees F above average and daily record highs (which run in the low to mid 40’s) are being shattered by 10 degrees. Usually daily records are broken by a degree or two – not by that much. Temperature-wise, this is far more significant than the somewhat below average temperatures in the eastern portions of the United States.
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/BGBW/2010/2/9/MonthlyHistory.html

Comments from
http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/08/climate-science-extreme-weather-moisture-precipitation-warmes t-winter-satellite-record-deniers-jeff-masters/#comments
1549. IKE
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
333 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...


LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ040>043-047>052-056>058-102000-
/O.NEW.KJAN.WS.A.0002.100212T0600Z-100212T2000Z/
MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BASTROP...OAK GROVE...EPPS...
LAKE PROVIDENCE...RAYVILLE...DELHI...TALLULAH...MAYERSVILLE...
ROLLING FORK...ANGUILLA...YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...
CANTON...VICKSBURG...JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...
FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON...UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...
MERIDIAN...TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...
QUITMAN...STONEWALL...SHUBUTA
333 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. THE SNOW
WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND WILL BECOME
HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. EVERYONE
IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PREPARE
FOR HAZARDOUS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

COHEN
1550. IKE
QPF from now til Saturday.....

1551. IKE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
521 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-102300-
UPPER
MOBILE-ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-WASHINGTON-CONECUH-MONROE-BUTLER-CLARKE-
CRENSHAW-WILCOX-CHOCTAW-INLAND OKALOOSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA
ROSA-GEORGE-STONE-PERRY-GREENE-WAYNE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER
BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA
ROSA-
521 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...POTENTIAL INCREASING OF WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...


SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION BY WEEKS END AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET OVER THE INTERIOR
COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
84...AND WILL THEN CHANGE TO AND REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING FROM THE WEST. CLOSER TO THE COAST...RAIN
WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY NIGHT AND A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET AND SNOW
MIX COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS MID MORNING FRIDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

IT IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE STATE OF THE SCIENCE TO PIN POINT EXACT
SNOWFALL TOTALS BECAUSE IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT IN TIME PRIOR TO THE
EVENT AND MANY UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS
INDICATE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
CONFIDENCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN OUR AREA CONTINUES TO
INCREASE...PARTICULARLY INLAND.

IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY EITHER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR A
POSSIBLE WINTER STORM WARNING BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.


NOTE...IF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW VERIFIES A LITTLE MORE SOUTH
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...COLDER AIR AND CRITICAL COLD SEASON
THICKNESSES WILL LIKELY BE PULLED MORE SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW.

HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SLICK
SPOTS BEGIN TO FORM...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY...SUBFREEZING
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT SUGGESTS THAT LINGERING MOISTURE ON
ROADS AND OVERPASSES WILL REFREEZE...MAINTAINING SLICK SPOTS AND
MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

EVERYONE IS URGED TO STAY UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS
CONCERNING THIS STORM.

$$

/10

1552. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
520 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

......POTENTIAL INCREASING OF WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

...PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...



My low this morning, so far...30.2.
1553. IKE
From the Mobile,AL. discussion....

"LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...APOLOGIZE FOR THE DELAY AS
FORECASTERS HAVE BEEN COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
NATIONAL CENTERS ON THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FORECASTERS WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE
FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE TEXAS
COAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE 10.00Z CANADIAN GEM AND EURO BRING
THE LOW EAST NORTHEASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAVING ITS SURFACE LOW CENTER ABOUT
200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THESE TWO MODELS. THE NATIONAL CENTERS FAVOR
THE NORTHWARD SOLUTION AS ADVERTISED BY THE CANADIAN GEM/EURO. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE PLACEMENT OF WINTER
WEATHER AND TYPE. THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SIGNAL AND INCREASED LAYER LIFT TO OVERSPREAD THE GULF COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...COLD SEASON THICKNESSES ALONG
WITH DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE DEEP LAYER THERMAL PROFILE FROM FALLING
PRECIPITATION SUPPORTS A CHANGEOVER FROM LIGHT RAIN AND SLEET IN THE
EVENING TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR...WHILE A MIXTURE OF
LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY...SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-10 WHILE A MIXTURE OF
SLEET AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. WE HAVE
UNDERCUT FRIDAY`S MOS MAX TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES DUE TO
DYNAMIC COOLING BY FALLING SLEET AND SNOW.

AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW...THE LATEST GRIDDED FORECASTS
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT MIDNIGHT (12.06Z) TO FRIDAY NOON (12.18Z) CALL
FOR UPWARDS OF NEAR 3 INCHES FROM A WAYNESBORO MS TO BUTLER AL LINE
AND FROM THERE...1 TO 2 INCHES ORIENTATED ALONG A LINE FROM WIGGINS
MS TO CAMDEN AL. ELSEWHERE...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS
IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES. IF THE FORECAST HOLDS...A
WINTER STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON THE DAY SHIFT. ON THIS PACKAGE...REFER TO THE LATEST SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR SPECIFICS ON THE
UPCOMING STORM.

NOTE: IF THE LOW TRACK VERIFIES A LITTLE MORE SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...COLDER AIR AND CRITICAL COLD SEASON THICKNESSES WILL
LIKELY BE PULLED MORE SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
SOUTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ACCUMULATING SLEET AND SNOW. DRIVING
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BECOME HAZARDOUS THURSDAY NIGHT AS SLICK SPOTS SET
UP...ESPECIALLY ALONG OVERPASSES. STAY TUNED."
Morning Ike and all, Hey looks like you just might get what you ask for.lol
1555. IKE
Quoting severstorm:
Morning Ike and all, Hey looks like you just might get what you ask for.lol


LOL...again.
i been reading so many lows moving accross the se that theyve become one. now another one coming. cold windy says 55f but its colder. if those temperture charts posted are right the world is becoming screwy. e cent florida
Sooner or later you will finally get that SNOW!!
When i see snow falling from the sky and landing on the ground here in NW Mobile county, then i will believe it! LOL

Chilly here on the w c side of fl
1560. IKE
Quoting severstorm:
Sooner or later you will finally get that SNOW!!


Nice thing is...IF we get any, it will all be melted by Saturday...I hope.

IF this does verify, they'll probably close schools here on Friday. That's right...they'll close em for an inch of snow...lol.
Yes i agree the up side to snow in the deep south. My brother lives in s c pa need i say any more. Oh he has 35" on the ground and still snowing.
1562. IKE
Look at the deep trough coming through on Monday(another chance of snow?), reinforcing the cold-air. Anybody ready for spring?

1563. IKE
Quoting severstorm:
Yes i agree the up side to snow in the deep south. My brother lives in s c pa need i say any more. Oh he has 35" on the ground and still snowing.


I'd be sick of it. Feel sorry for folks up there.
Snow forecasts in the deep south feel the same way as my relationship with my ex- girlfriend!! Cheated on too many times!!
Quoting stormsurge39:
Snow forecasts in the deep south feel the same way as my relationship with my ex- girlfriend!! Cheated on too many times!!
to early to hit the bottle surge hope you all have a good day
Quoting leftovers:
to early to hit the bottle surge hope you all have a good day
Im past that stage and got a much better lady! Maybe this chance for snow will do me better this time?
Ustream from my house. Snow and wind is kicking up.Enjoy

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/lefty-s-central-va-weather-cam
1568. SQUAWK
Something important.

Discovery Mourns the Loss of Captain Phil Harris.

UPDATE: February 9, 2010: It is with great sadness that we say goodbye to our dad - Captain Phil Harris. Dad has always been a fighter and continued to be until the end. For us and the crew, he was someone who never backed down. We will remember and celebrate that strength. Thanks to everyone for their thoughts and prayers. - Jake and Josh Harris

Statement from Discovery - Discovery mourns the loss of dear friend and colleague Captain Phil Harris. He was more than someone on our television screen. Phil was a devoted father and loyal friend to all who knew him. We will miss his straightforward honesty, wicked sense of humor and enormous heart. We share our tremendous sadness over this loss with the millions of viewers who followed Phil's every move. We send our thoughts and prayers to Phil's sons Josh and Jake and the Cornelia Marie crew.
Quoting SQUAWK:
Something important.

Discovery Mourns the Loss of Captain Phil Harris.

UPDATE: February 9, 2010: It is with great sadness that we say goodbye to our dad - Captain Phil Harris. Dad has always been a fighter and continued to be until the end. For us and the crew, he was someone who never backed down. We will remember and celebrate that strength. Thanks to everyone for their thoughts and prayers. - Jake and Josh Harris

Statement from Discovery - Discovery mourns the loss of dear friend and colleague Captain Phil Harris. He was more than someone on our television screen. Phil was a devoted father and loyal friend to all who knew him. We will miss his straightforward honesty, wicked sense of humor and enormous heart. We share our tremendous sadness over this loss with the millions of viewers who followed Phil's every move. We send our thoughts and prayers to Phil's sons Josh and Jake and the Cornelia Marie crew.
Was he the captain on the show deadliest catch?
1570. SQUAWK
Quoting stormsurge39:
Was he the captain on the show deadliest catch?


Yes
1571. IKE
New Orleans discussion.....

"SHORT TERM...
THE LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL ACCELERATE EAST NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST U.S./MEXICAN BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUE EAST
AS A POTENT OPEN TROUGH...CROSSING TEXAS THURSDAY AND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE TEXAS COAST ON
THURSDAY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE AND NEAR COASTAL AREAS.

THERE ARE STILL SOME PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
VARIOUS MODELS 00Z RUNS TODAY...EVEN THOUGH MANY OF THE MODELS ARE
MAINTAINING THEIR SAME BIAS FROM RUN TO RUN. ONE THING IS MANY OF
THEM CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBSTANTIAL QPF AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE NAM REMAINS SLOW AND FARTHEST SOUTHWEST WITH TIME WHILE THE
GFS IS FASTEST AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST. THE SREF AND UKMET SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND NORTH OF THE NAM...AND THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN QUITE A
BIT NORTH AND BOTH SITUATED ONLY ABOUT 20 TO 30 MILES OFF THE
COAST SOUTH OF TERREBONNE PARISH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
PRESENTS QUITE A PROBLEM BECAUSE A MORE NORTHERN TRACK WILL BRING
WARMER AIR FARTHER NORTH AND REDUCE THE CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WHILE A SOUTHERN TRACK SHOULD ALLOW AMPLE COLD AIR
FOR MOSTLY SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN COUPLE TIERS OF
COUNTIES/PARISHES. HPC INDICATES A PREFERENCE FOR THE MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND THIS IS THE BASIS FOR
THEIR 4 INCH PLUS PROBABILITY AREA BEING NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR DAYS 2 AND 3.

LOOKING AT FAVORED THICKNESSES AT SEVERAL LAYERS IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS...MOST OF THE AREA FALLS IN AN AREA BETWEEN 50 PERCENT
RAIN/SNOW AND MOSTLY RAIN FROM A CROSS SECTION OF MODELS.
ALSO...THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE PROGS SHOW THE ZERO LINE MEANDERING
NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA...NEAR THE WEST TO
EAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE THROUGH MOST OF THE TIME
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FALLS. THIS ALONE WOULD SUGGEST NOT MUCH
HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF NUMEROUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH DYNAMIC COOLING...AND THE TENDENCY FOR LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO THE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY SUB-ZERO WET-
BULB TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS A GOOD CHANCE FOR MOSTLY SNOW AROUND
MCCOMB MISSISSIPPI. THE EXPECTED MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW SUGGESTS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR THE RAIN/SNOW LINE
TO BE SITUATED IN OR NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. WITH ALL THIS IN
MIND...WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE 4
COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING MCCOMB AND
TYLERTOWN. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

FARTHER SOUTH...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...POSSIBLY STARTING OUT WITH SLEET MIXED IN...DOWN TO AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN INCLUDING BATON ROUGE...AND
ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. A SOUTHWARD SHIFT
IN THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SURFACE LOW COULD MEAN A BETTER
CHANCE FOR 2 INCH OR GREATER AMOUNTS OF SNOW BY MIDDAY ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER...THAT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND EXPAND THE WATCH SOUTH IF FORECAST
CONDITIONS CHANGE.

AROUND THE SOUTH SHORE...MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW PELLETS OF SLEET MIX IN AT TIMES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL END
FROM THE WEST BY MID AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
WORK WITH.

MONDAY/PRESIDENTS DAY/LUNDI GRAS AND TUESDAY/MARDI GRAS STILL LOOK
DRY AND COOL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST
AREA."
Quoting SQUAWK:


Yes
I thought he was doing better. Sad and suprised to hear.
Morning leftyy420, been awhile. Ike he loves the snow but even he is getting tired of it and lots more to come for them.
1574. IKE
Quoting severstorm:
Morning leftyy420, been awhile. Ike he loves the snow but even he is getting tired of it and lots more to come for them.


I bet he is getting sick of it.

Hope it ends soon lefty.

I notice New York City has a blizzard warning.

My morning low...29.8
http://trafficland.com/city/WAS/index.html
Morning All, GFS still stuck to the south.



ECMWF seems to have moved Southish as well.





Click images for full size view.
1577. IKE
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Morning All, GFS still stuck to the south.



ECMWF seems to have moved Southish as well.





Click images for full size view.


Good...increases my chances for s n o w. This looks to be all about the track.
Quoting IKE:


I bet he is getting sick of it.

Hope it ends soon lefty.

I notice New York City has a blizzard warning.

My morning low...29.8


Yeah it is. We got 13" of snow and a inch of freezing rain/sleet In the middle of it. We lost power for 36 hrs.

I had to watch the Super Bowl as a refugee lol.

I don't know how long the power will stay on. Winds are gusting over 30 mph now. And there is tons of trees damaged or weakened by the last storm.
1579. IKE
Quoting leftyy420:


Yeah it is. We got 13" of snow and a inch of freezing rain/sleet In the middle of it. We lost power for 36 hrs.

I had to watch the Super Bowl as a refugee lol.

I don't know how long the power will stay on. Winds are gusting over 30 mph now. And there is tons of trees damaged or weakened by the last storm.


Sorry to read what you're going through.

Take care.
Seems a path just north of Lake O is shaping up
Holy cow Ike! We gotta take pics if this actually occurs!
1582. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Holy cow Ike! We gotta take pics if this actually occurs!


I will be.

12Z model runs will start in the next 1-2 hours.

What was your low?

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Seems a path just north of Lake O is shaping up


I'm wishcasting for a southern track.
Big time rain event looming for C FL come Fri and Fri night. Ground around where I live is now very saturated from all the recent rains. Just yesterday I picked up 1.13" when we were only supposed to get a quater inch or less. Approaching 10" so far for the year.
Quoting IKE:


I will be.

12Z model runs will start in the next 1-2 hours.

What was your low?



I'm wishcasting for a southern track.


It's 48 here north of Orlando.
Quoting IKE:


I will be.

12Z model runs will start in the next 1-2 hours.

What was your low?



I'm wishcasting for a southern track.


Not I. That increases the chance for severe WX in my neck of the woods.

Unfortunately, someone has to get it though.
Bottomed out at 29.7 about an hour ago.
1588. IKE
It's cold outside with a gusty wind...still. My low was 29.8.

Gonna check forecasts for peninsula Florida for severe wx.
1589. IKE
Don't see a severe weather threat with the Tampa discussion....

"LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LONG TERM PERIOD
INHERITS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE PENINSULA. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING A CLOSED LOW TRACK
ACROSS THE STATE BUT TIMING...POSITION AND MAGNITUDE REMAIN AN
ISSUE. GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE NORTH THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS NOW
SHOWING THE SYSTEM`S CENTER PASS OVER SW FL AS A 1004-1002MB LOW
EARLY SATURDAY. ECMWF IS A TAD QUICKER AND MORE NORTH SHOWING THE
SYSTEM PASS OVER TAMPA BAY AS A 1005MB LOW LATE FRIDAY. REGARDLESS
OF THE DISCREPANCIES...PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UP TO 50 NORTH OF
PASCO AND 60 SOUTHWARD FOR LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
LACK OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...NOT EXPECTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY SO BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED SAT MORNING THROUGH SAT NIGHT."
I have gotten a hold of a network web-cam, anyone here knows how to connect it up to a web , for free, so everyone here can see the weather here in Sydney in real time. Can you please WUmail me.
Cheers.
AussieStorm
Quoting IKE:
It's cold outside with a gusty wind...still. My low was 29.8.

Gonna check forecasts for peninsula Florida for severe wx.




Miami NWS



ECMWF
HAS THE LOW CROSSING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE
GFS MOVES THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH S. FLORIDA. THIS WILL PUT S.
FLORIDA UNDER A HIGH RISK OF SVR WX WITH VERY HIGH HELICITY VALUES
AND THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR BEING LIMITED INSTABILITY.

HOWEVER...LATEST TREND IN THE GFS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THE LOW FURTHER
NORTH IN EVERY RUN...SO A FURTHER NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS
LOW TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE IN FUTURE RUNS. IN ANNY
CASE...WL EXPECT WX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO COME QUICKLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY AND AN EQUALLY QUICK DRY UP SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NE
AND IS REPLACED BY A SFC HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEX.


I will be eagerly awaiting the 12Z runs for a northward trend.
1592. IKE
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:




Miami NWS



ECMWF
HAS THE LOW CROSSING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE
GFS MOVES THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH S. FLORIDA. THIS WILL PUT S.
FLORIDA UNDER A HIGH RISK OF SVR WX WITH VERY HIGH HELICITY VALUES
AND THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR BEING LIMITED INSTABILITY.

HOWEVER...LATEST TREND IN THE GFS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THE LOW FURTHER
NORTH IN EVERY RUN...SO A FURTHER NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS
LOW TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE IN FUTURE RUNS. IN ANNY
CASE...WL EXPECT WX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO COME QUICKLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY AND AN EQUALLY QUICK DRY UP SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NE
AND IS REPLACED BY A SFC HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEX.


I will be eagerly awaiting the 12Z runs for a northward trend.


Thanks....


FRom Melbourne office....ZONAL
CONFIG OF POWERFUL ST JET WILL PUSH FAST-MOVG LOW PRES CTR FROM THE
WRN GOMEX THU NGT INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF FL BY LATE
FRI/FRI NGT...AND THEN RAPIDLY OUT TO SEA OFF THE SERN SEABOARD BY
EARLY SAT MORNING.
Still using the fraudulent IPCC report as a source I see. Isn't that koolaid growing bitter yet for a true scientist Jeff?
Headed off to the Atlas V launch. Hope it's a GO..Live coverage
It was 46 here in St. Pete when I woke up
1593. I keep posting on why the IPCC report shouldn't be used, but nobody seems to care since it proves their point.
The University of Tampa, Tampa, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
46.4 °F
Clear
Windchill: 40 °F
Humidity: 69%
Dew Point: 37 °F
Wind: 15.0 mphfrom the NNW
Wind Gust: 23.0 mph

I am the Monkey in the middle so I usually have to blend the 2 discussions. Far north Miami NWS and far south Melbourn NWS, lol. Either way, looks like you just might get your wish for snow.
Quoting IKE:


Thanks....


FRom Melbourne office....ZONAL
CONFIG OF POWERFUL ST JET WILL PUSH FAST-MOVG LOW PRES CTR FROM THE
WRN GOMEX THU NGT INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF FL BY LATE
FRI/FRI NGT...AND THEN RAPIDLY OUT TO SEA OFF THE SERN SEABOARD BY
EARLY SAT MORNING.


Don't go by the Melbourne office because they are terrible with forecast. They forecast very little rain for E CFL yesterday and we ended up getting hammered here North of Orlando. Man it poured! (Rainfall Totals)Daytona Beach .82", Ocala 1.36", Sanford 1.04", Mount Dora 1.10", My house 1.13", Orlando International .36".
omg if we get snow, i am gonna make a youtube video like the weather channel guys up north, go out with a yard stick and measure the two inch drift wearing ten coats at once and slogging thru it with some hysteria commentary oh the humanity!!! i will be sooooo excited! if it doesnt snow i will drive north til i find it haha
NWS Miami forecast position:





TAFB is similar:






Last four GFS:

MSNBC’s Ratigan: “These ‘snowpocalypses’ that have been going through DC and other extreme weather events are precisely what climate scientists have been predicting, fearing and anticipating because of global warming.”


http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/10/msnbcs-ratigan-these-%E2%80%98snowpocalypses%E2%80%99-extreme -weather-events-what-climate-scientists-have-been-predicting/
It looks like parts of Florida may get severe weather from this system.
1604. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NWS Miami forecast position:





TAFB is similar:






Last four GFS:



Thanks for that information. If that verifies, I may see some white stuff.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
I am the Monkey in the middle so I usually have to blend the 2 discussions. Far north Miami NWS and far south Melbourn NWS, lol. Either way, looks like you just might get your wish for snow.


THere will be a risk for SEVERE WX from Fort Stuart south Fri night. Melbourne will be in the 50's while 50 miles south temps could be near 70.
Did anybody post about the earth quake in Illinois???

Link
Quoting Jeff9641:


THere will be a risk for SEVERE WX from Fort Stuart south Fri night. Melbourne will be in the 50's while 50 miles south temps could be near 70.


With that kind of temperature spread there will be a pretty high risk of severe weather I would think.
Looking less and less like snow for us in NC this weekend then...oh well. The low bombing out off the coast is making for some VERY windy conditions today. Supposed to have up to 50mph gusts today...the pine trees outside my window are bobbin and weavin.
Quoting CaneWarning:


With that kind of temperature spread there will be a pretty high risk of severe weather I would think.



ECMWF
HAS THE LOW CROSSING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE
GFS MOVES THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH S. FLORIDA. THIS WILL PUT S.
FLORIDA UNDER A HIGH RISK OF SVR WX WITH VERY HIGH HELICITY VALUES
AND THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR BEING LIMITED INSTABILITY.
Quoting SQUAWK:
Something important.

Discovery Mourns the Loss of Captain Phil Harris.


He was my favorite Captain. Just saw he was younger than me, only 53. I honestly thought he was in his 60's. He'll be missed.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



ECMWF
HAS THE LOW CROSSING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE
GFS MOVES THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH S. FLORIDA. THIS WILL PUT S.
FLORIDA UNDER A HIGH RISK OF SVR WX WITH VERY HIGH HELICITY VALUES
AND THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR BEING LIMITED INSTABILITY.


Limited instability is a good thing. I wouldn't be shocked with a tornado watch in that area if the conditions are what it appears they will be.
Quoting CaneWarning:
Did anybody post about the earth quake in Illinois???

Link


Did you feel it map

Quoting PcolaDan:


Did you feel it map



Interesting map!
So it appears Chicago felt it, but barely. Does anybody know if Chicago buildings are built with earthquakes in mind?
Quoting CaneWarning:


Limited instability is a good thing. I wouldn't be shocked with a tornado watch in that area if the conditions are what it appears they will be.


Not sure if they meant the "Official" High Risk category or not, that would be kind of scary.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Not sure if they meant the "Official" High Risk category or not, that would be kind of scary.


I hope they didn't mean it that way. You don't see that very often, especially in Florida.
Very odd for a low like that to slide south of us here in Tampa Bay... El Nino is still rearing his ugly head
BTW - New names for the next snow events:

Snowverkill
SNOMG!
Hale and Hello. I'm pretty much hate-in-life. Pls. forgive me if this has already been posted.
A couple totals, so far (on top of what we've already had, which didn't melt much)...worst bands seem to be coming in now, the worst is supposed to end in afternoon...of course we have the winds, too.
American U. in DC - 5"
Columbia, MD - 6.1"

ALERT 1 - Winter Storm Warning
A BLIZZARD WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7:00PM EST WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 10
Issued: Wednesday, February 10, 2010 7:46 AM EST
Expires: Wednesday, February 10, 2010 4:00 PM EST
Back to Summary
BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
Urgent - Winter Weather Message
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
746 AM EST Wed Feb 10 2010

Montgomery-Prince Georges-
Including The City Of...Gaithersburg

...Blizzard Warning In Effect Until 7 PM EST This Evening...
...Winter Storm Warning Is Cancelled...

The National Weather Service In Sterling Virginia Has Issued A
Blizzard Warning...Which Is In Effect Until 7 PM EST This
Evening. The Winter Storm Warning Has Been Cancelled.

• Precipitation Type...Snow.

• Accumulations...10 To 15 Inches.

• Timing...Snow Will Continue Through This Evening. Heaviest
Snow Is Expected This Morning Through Early Afternoon.

• Temperatures...Mid And Upper 20s.

• Winds...Winds Will Become Northwest And Increase To 20 To 30 Mph
With Gusts Around 45 Mph. Blowing And Drifting Snow Will Reduce
Visibilities To A Quarter Mile Or Less At Times...Producing
Blizzard Conditions.

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

A Winter Storm Warning Means Significant Amounts Of Snow Are
Expected Or Occurring. The Combination Of Snow And Strong Winds
Will Make Travel Very Hazardous.

&&

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

A Blizzard Warning Means Severe Winter Weather Conditions Are
Expected Or Occurring. Falling And Blowing Snow With Strong Winds
And Poor Visibilities Are Likely. This Will Lead To Whiteout
Conditions...Making Travel Extremely Dangerous. Do Not Travel. If
You Must Travel...Have A Winter Survival Kit With You. If You Get Stranded...Stay With Your Vehicle.
***

AIM - enjoy all of that snow!
Snowtastrophy!
Never thought people in the NE would need to consider building their houses on stilts. I thought that idiocy was reserved for us southern folk.
Quoting CaneWarning:
AIM - enjoy all of that snow!

Grrrrr, come here, dah-link, I have a "Board of Education" somewhere...my fuzzy slippers are closer, don't hurt as much on the behind...
---------------------------------
Got a late-night automated call from CERT, to check e-mail...asking for volunteers to go out with Fire & Rescue for checks on residents...this has followed call-outs to help in EOC and shelters, prob./poss. I've never seen so many requests at one time for our County CERT team. I'm not even sure where or if I'll be working; I don't have a 4x4...I blame Atmo as he said I couldn't have his Outback (J/K)!!

Of course there's pleas for 4-wheel drive vehicles/drivers all over the news, also a Red Cross blood request.

I'm fighting the urge to be an ostrich...head in snow instead of dirt.

Need to get another cup of coffee and go through e-mail and sort out call-outs/updates. I pray needs will NOT be great; and that training, equipment, strength, good-sense hold up if/when they are!

A CERT call for snow? Do people not have heat or something?
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Grrrrr, come here, dah-link, I have a "Board of Education" somewhere...my fuzzy slippers are closer, don't hurt as much on the behind...
---------------------------------
Got a late-night automated call from CERT, to check e-mail...asking for volunteers to go out with Fire & Rescue for checks on residents...this has followed call-outs to help in EOC and shelters, prob./poss. I've never seen so many requests at one time for our County CERT team. I'm not even sure where or if I'll be working; I don't have a 4x4...I blame Atmo as he said I couldn't have his Outback (J/K)!!

Of course there's pleas for 4-wheel drive vehicles/drivers all over the news, also a Red Cross blood request.

I'm fighting the urge to be an ostrich...head in snow instead of dirt.

Need to get another cup of coffee and go through e-mail and sort out call-outs/updates. I pray needs will NOT be great; and that training, equipment, strength, good-sense hold up if/when they are!



I am actually starting to feel for you guys... snow storms I can understand.. not much fun at all.
1627. NEwxguy
I'm just west of Boston, and my pressure is already down to 1002mb, and dropping fast,and the storm is still getting its act together off the Delmarva,this thing is going to be deep deep deep.
Quoting CaneWarning:
A CERT call for snow? Do people not have heat or something?


Sorry, My Bad for not spelling out acronym the first time it's used in a sentence.
"Community Emergency Response Team"

But the answer to your question is yes, I think(?) there may still be about 10,000 without heat in my county alone (Montgomery Co., on PEPCO and Washington Gas). Some of VA is on Dominion Power.

Guess you didn't hear some have been without power for several days, so maybe we're not quite as wimpy as we've been made out to be. There are warming centers and shelters set up.
Quoting TampaTom:
BTW - New names for the next snow events:

Snowverkill
SNOMG!

I like SNOMG!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Sorry, My Bad for not spelling out acronym the first time it's used in a sentence.
"Community Emergency Response Team"

But the answer to your question is yes, I think(?) there may still be about 10,000 without heat in my county alone (Montgomery Co., on PEPCO and Washington Gas). Some of VA is on Dominion Power.

Guess you didn't hear some have been without power for several days, so maybe we're not quite as wimpy as we've been made out to be. There are warming centers and shelters set up.


Wow, that's got to be rough. I had heard there were power outages, but I didn't know how widespread those were.
Quoting RitaEvac:


I felt it but my house did not shake. I am just south of Antioch, Round Lake Beach area. It was at 4AM. Not use to this in Northern Illinois although I know it is possible.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am actually starting to feel for you guys... snow storms I can understand.. not much fun at all.
Quoting NEwxguy:
I'm just west of Boston, and my pressure is already down to 1002mb, and dropping fast,and the storm is still getting its act together off the Delmarva,this thing is going to be deep deep deep.


I was catching up on posts from last night. Pottery posted that Venezuela has declared a State of Emergency because their Rainy season was too Dry.

In the interest of Public Diplomacy, and forging better relationships and renewing the bonds of peace and hope with our neighbors in the Western Hemisphere, I hereby offer ALL the snow in my yard to Venezuela -- come and get it, and TIA!
1633. XLR8
Sounds like we are in for some fun in Mississippi Thur and Fri.


FXUS64 KJAN 101050
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
450 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

SYNOPTIC SET-UP...A STRONG ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM EXTENDS FROM THE
EAST PACIFIC REGION INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. THE JET STREAM WILL BUCKLE DURING THE NEXT DAY AS AN
APPROACHING HIGH-AMPLITUDE PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD. THIS TROUGH
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING
ONSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS DIGGING WILL INDUCE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH A QUICKLY-TIGHTENING UPPER-LEVEL
HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH...THIS WILL HELP TO
CARVE OUT AN ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVED AND EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WITH MAXIMUM CORE WINDS AT H2 AROUND 200 KT AS IT
PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE STRONG FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET STREAK WILL SPAN A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS BY LATE WEEK...WITH A WELL-DEFINED RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVERLAYING A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE OF THE
JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE VERY STRONG LIFT WITHIN THE ASCENDING BRANCH
OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS
WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTALS OF
EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING DUE EASTWARD ALONG THE BAROCLINIC TROUGH
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...APPROXIMATELY ALONG 27N/28N. A LARGE
AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 540SM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW BY LATE THURSDAY.
PRECIP WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE CONVERGENCE
INCREASES FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND WILL DELIVER
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF QPF TO LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

SEVERAL ENHANCEMENTS TO THE PRECIP WILL COME DURING THE COURSE OF
THE EVENT. THE CLOSED PACIFIC CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TRANSLATING
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY WHILE OPENING UP AS A SHARP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH
STRONG DEEP-LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
PROVIDE FOR VIGOROUS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AROUND
THE SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NWP GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THIS AREA
EXPERIENCING NEGATIVE VALUES OF MEAN SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
VORTICITY WITHIN THE LOW/MID LEVELS...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SLANTWISE INSTABILITY. THIS SET-UP WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR HEAVY SNOW
BANDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE...INCREASING CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THIS
BEING AN ALL-SNOW EVENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 800 FT AGL AREAWIDE FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EVENT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES EARLY IN THE EVENT...WHEN A WEAK...4000-FT
DEEP...ELEVATED WARM LAYER COULD RESULT IN PARTIAL MELTING OF ICE
CRYSTALS GENERATED BY DEEP-LAYER SATURATED ASCENT FURTHER ALOFT. MAX
TEMPS IN THE WARM LAYER WILL ONLY REACH 1C OR 2C...SUPPORTING A
SLEET/RAIN MIX AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. HOWEVER...STRONG ADIABATIC
COOLING DUE TO FORCED ASCENT WILL CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER TO A WET
SNOW ACROSS THIS REGION. LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES...WHILE
MOSTLY SUBFREEZING...INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA. SREF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS RANGING FROM 5:1 ACROSS THE
SOUTH TO 8:1 ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST QPF WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL COMPENSATE FOR THE LOWER
RATIOS. AS OF NOW...WE ARE LOOKING FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA...1 TO 3 INCHES
ALONG THE INTERSTATE-20 CORRIDOR...AND UP TO AN INCH FURTHER NORTH.
THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MANY SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THIS EVENT AND THE
4 DECEMBER 2009 SNOW EVENT. AS WITH THAT EVENT...WHILE THE
APPROXIMATELY 60-MB THICK DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE NEARLY
SATURATED...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW IT ELEVATED ABOVE THE STRONGEST
ASCENT. THIS WILL KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM BEING EVEN HIGHER.
HOWEVER...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA...THE HEAVY...WET
NATURE OF THE SNOW COULD DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES.


THERE ARE STILL SOME AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THIS EVENT.
WHILE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG
27N/28N...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TRACK. THE ECMWF
HAS COME IN MUCH CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST FOR THE LOW TRACK...
SPREADING MUCH HIGHER SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SOLUTION
APPEARS TO BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT DOES
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS OF MORE THAN HALF A FOOT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE CWA. THE GFS/SREF ARE SUGGESTING
A LOW TRACK SUPPRESSED MORE TO THE SOUTH...LIKELY DUE THEIR DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITHIN 120SM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF
THE LOW. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS CONCEIVABLE...IT STILL GIVES WARNING
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-20. CMC AND ITS ENSEMBLES
ARE SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED TRACKS. THUS...MODEL
CONSENSUS PROVIDES HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL
TOTALS...NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 06Z
FRIDAY TO 20Z FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND ALL OF
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS INCLUDES JACKSON...VICKSBURG...MERIDIAN...
AND HATTIESBURG. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH COULD EXPERIENCE A DUSTING
TO AN INCH OF SNOW...THOUGH WARNING LEVEL AMOUNTS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.

1635. IKE
12Z NAM at 54 hours has trended south with the zero degree line here in the Florida panhandle. Appears to have sped up the systems movement. NAM was too slow with it's movement on earlier runs...



Here was the 6Z NAM run at 60 hours...notice a trend south with the zero degree line on the above 12Z run...

Quoting PcolaDan:
Bunch of good cams in Delaware.


COOL, thanks Dan, I didn't know they had them all in one place -- in the past, I've been going from internet site to site for the DE cams.

And whoa, the camera at Dewey (our fave doggy-friendly beach) says temporarily closed...don't like that!
Quoting IKE:
12Z NAM at 54 hours has trended south with the zero degree line here in the Florida panhandle. Appears to have sped up the systems movement. NAM was too slow with it's movement on earlier runs


Ike, thats a misleading map because while that is the 0 line for that time, it is accumulated 6-hour precip - you need to match up the 700 mb RH map and thickness or 850 0 line - why the models don't incorporate all these on one map is beyond me
1638. lilElla
About the IL earthquake-
Our dog, Scooter, woke us up at 4:00 in panic mode. We, humans, didn't hear or feel anything. We are 30 miles northwest of Madison WI. We've heard comments by people south of Madison that thought they were hearing the snow plow!
1639. IKE
Quoting Chucktown:


LOL...I just looked at the 700mb RH map on the 12Z NAM @ 54 hours....help! How do you read that?

Quoting IKE:


Thanks for that information. If that verifies, I may see some white stuff.
I blend the Crestview forecast and the Defuniak Springs forecast.
Just signed in for first time since Hurricane Season. I have no idea how to read the winter maps (or the tropical ones for that matter :)....what's it looking like currently for Pensacola south of I-10 near the coast?

1642. IKE
Quoting mossyhead:
I blend the Crestview forecast and the Defuniak Springs forecast.


And there's still quite a bit of discrepancy between the 2 in the latest forecast.
Quoting IKE:


LOL...I just looked at the 700mb RH map on the 12Z NAM @ 54 hours....help! How do you read that?



the darkest green is where the model believes the RH is 70% at 700 mb - this is usually the threshold of the lower levels of the atmosphere meaning if its 70% RH at this level, precipitation is falling, but not necessarily reaching the ground. Dewpoint at the surface needs to taken into account, so if the depoint depression is large (differnece between temp and dewpoint) then it may take some time for the precip to reach the ground, this is how evaporational cooling works.
Quoting 850Realtor:
Just signed in for first time since Hurricane Season. I have no idea how to read the winter maps (or the tropical ones for that matter :)....what's it looking like currently for Pensacola south of I-10 near the coast?

Depends on where the low will be over the Gulf. The lower it is the better chance for snow.
Quoting IKE:


LOL...I just looked at the 700mb RH map on the 12Z NAM @ 54 hours....help! How do you read that?


Basically, the darker the green, the more moisture. The dark isobars are the thickness of the 700mb layer (surface to 700mb in decameters). Generally, the more thick the 700mb layer, the higher the pressure. The wind barbs are just the wind speed and direction at 700mb. I'm not sure what the dark red lines are (not the geographic features... the map describes the dark red lines as "omega").
Quoting mossyhead:
Depends on where the low will be over the Gulf. The lower it is the better chance for snow.


Thanks Mossyhead!
Quoting IKE:


And there's still quite a bit of discrepancy between the 2 in the latest forecast.
I saw that. I look at the fact whatever weather is like at Crestview comes toward us, while the Tallahassee office is past us and they usually predict the weather after it leaves us.
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!
1649. unf97
Good morning everyone!

Well, Ike it is looking more and more probable that you will be seeing the white stuff beginning early Friday morning. I noticed the latest trend by the models to speed the GOM Low through at a rather good pace. South Central FL looks to be where the Low center will track across, basically just north of Lake Okechobee, along a line from Sarasota to Vero Beach. That is about what I was expecting. There may be a possibility of severe wx theat for extreme SE FL and Keys on Friday.

Friday will be a cold, breezy and wet day in NE FL. Temps should stay in the 40s all day. Just north of here in SE GA, there may be a window of opportunity for wintry precip late Friday as the Low center pulls away. There may be lingering wrap around moisture on the back side of the Low. Then, thermal profiles may be cold enough for wintry precip. But, will the moisture be available Friday evening in SE GA area?

Cool, sunny breezy conditions to start the day at my North Jax location. The morning low here was 34.6 degrees.

Current temp 39.2 degrees at 10 a.m. Only expecting a max today of 50 degrees. Forecast low tomorrow morning 28 degrees.

Friday will be a very interesting weather day over the Florida peninsula, with good chance of snow in the panhandle, to possible risk of strong to severe storms in the warm sector in extreme South FL and the Keys. Gotta love the weather folks!
1650. Patrap



Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
738 am CST Wednesday Feb 10 2010



Short term...
the low near Southern California will accelerate east near the
southwest U.S./Mexican border through tonight...then continue east
as a potent open trough...crossing Texas Thursday and the central
Gulf Coast region late Thursday night and Friday morning. The
associated surface low will develop off the Texas coast on
Thursday and move east across the northern Gulf of Mexico Thursday
night and Friday. This will create windy conditions...especially
offshore and near coastal areas.


There are still some pretty substantial differences between the
various models 00z runs today...even though many of the models are
maintaining their same bias from run to run. One thing is many of
them continue to show substantial quantitative precipitation forecast amounts of one half to one
inch liquid equivalent through Friday.


The NAM remains slow and farthest southwest with time while the
GFS is fastest and farther southeast. The sref and UKMET slightly
faster and north of the NAM...and the European model (ecmwf) and Canadian quite a
bit north and both situated only about 20 to 30 miles off the
coast south of Terrebonne Parish early Friday morning. This
presents quite a problem because a more northern track will bring
warmer air farther north and reduce the chance of wintry
precipitation while a southern track should allow ample cold air
for mostly snow over the northern couple tiers of
counties/parishes. HPC indicates a preference for the more
northern track of the surface low...and this is the basis for
their 4 inch plus probability area being north of the forecast
area for days 2 and 3.


Looking at favored thicknesses at several layers in the low to
middle levels...most of the area falls in an area between 50 percent
rain/snow and mostly rain from a cross section of models.
Also...the 850 mb temperature forecasts show the zero line meandering
near the northern border of our forecast area...near the west to
east Louisiana and Mississippi State line through most of the time
significant precipitation falls. This alone would suggest not much
heavy snow potential...however...analysis of numerous model
soundings combined with dynamic cooling...and the tendency for low
level temperatures to cool to the near to slightly sub-zero wet-
bulb temperatures suggests a good chance for mostly snow around
McComb Mississippi. The expected more northern track of the
surface low suggests there is a good chance for the rain/snow line
to be situated in or near our northern zones. With all this in
mind...we went ahead and issued a Winter Storm Watch for the 4
counties of southwest Mississippi...including McComb and
Tylertown. Snowfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are possible mainly
late Thursday evening through Friday morning.


Farther south...will continue to indicate a rain/snow
mix...possibly starting out with sleet mixed in...down to areas
north and west of Lake Pontchartrain including Baton Rouge...and
across inland sections of coastal Mississippi. A southward shift
in the projected path of the surface low could mean a better
chance for 2 inch or greater amounts of snow by midday on
Friday...however...that does not appear likely at this time. Will
continue to monitor and expand the watch south if forecast
conditions change.


Around the South Shore...mostly rain is expected...although would
not be surprised to see a few pellets of sleet mix in at times
Thursday afternoon and early evening. All precipitation will end
from the west by middle afternoon on Friday.
1651. keiser
I have heard about it....it's crazy!!!
1652. RMull
I checked the normal temperatures for Washington D.C.. The normal high was 45 degrees, the low 29. The record high was 76 - set back in 1932! Given these normal and record temperatures, it is just ridiculous to blame a snowstorm in D.C. on global warming.

Yes, I fully understand the argument that warmer air could hold more moisture and dump more precipitation - although the findings that over the last century some regions saw that, but some regions saw less severe precipitation strongly indicates that nothing in fact was going on in that regard. But record snowstorms, at temperatures well below normal? That is NO indication of global warming!
1653. RMull
Oh, and also please note well that Climategate shows clearly that we cannot simply trust the compilations of the world temperature record. There has been far too concerted an effort to keep the details of the compilation of 100 year world temperature record away from the public and from skeptical statistical experts.
1654. dewoolf
Dr. Masters, makes sense that warmer temps can sometimes lead to stronger storms but at least on the east coast hasn't this winter so far been colder than normal? Certainly February has to have been colder than normal, not sure that we've had a "normal" day temperature wise yet here in DC this month.
1655. robbar
Hello, Dr. Masters. I once read some research paper written by you, and now I found this blog. Really interesting one, may I say.
Some times Snow fall can become very dangerous for the peoples. But Always I like the Snow fall. And these Pictures are really awesome. Beautiful pictures that I have never seen before this.
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1657. osse
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1658. Robinnn
The system getting ready to cross over mexico looked scary. I`ll will use this information in my essay
Magnificent post, too much snow and that is a furious moment to survive.


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1661. dhk123
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