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Heavy snow and rain continue to pound California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:30 PM GMT on January 05, 2008

Heavy snow, flash floods, and damaging winds continue to pound California today as a weakening Pacific storm moves inland over British Columbia. The winds have died down considerably in the Sierra Mountains, where hurricane force winds were common on Friday. The storm's highest winds occurred at Ward Mountain near Lake Tahoe--sustained at 110 mph, gusting to 163 mph, on Friday. Prodigious snow amounts of up to six feet have fallen in the Sierras, with Blackcap Basin in Fresno County (elevation 10300 feet) reporting 71.3 inches (5.9 feet) of new snow as of 4 am PST Saturday. Continued heavy snows are expected in the Sierras through Sunday, with total amounts up to ten feet possible.

At lower elevations, heavy rain has triggered flash floods. In Chino Hills, just east of Los Angeles, a flash flood swept away a vehicle that had gone around a barricade. One occupant was found hypothermic and clinging to a tree, but the vehicle and its other occupant are missing. A mudslide forced the temporary closure of Interstate 15 nearby. Rain amounts exceeding ten inches (Figure 1) have fallen in the mountains of Central and Northern California, and in Nevada, heavy rains caused a levee to burst along the Truckee Canal in Fernley, flooding hundreds of homes.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the blizzard of '08 in Central California as of 3 pm PST Saturday.

The storm pounded the San Francisco Bay area Friday with remarkable ferocity, bringing winds of tropical storm force to the entire region, accompanied by extremely heavy rain. Sustained winds of 53 mph gusting to 67 mph were measured at the San Francisco airport, forcing cancellation of 35 flights. High winds on the Richmond-San Rafael Bridge forced closure of the bridge during the morning commute, when trucks toppled over on both upper and lower spans. Winds gusting to 70 mph were recorded on the Golden Gate bridge. At Mt. Diablo State Park just east of Oakland, sustained winds of 62 mph were reported at 9 am PST. A wind gust of 105 mph was reported at Los Gatos south of San Jose at 12pm PST.

The CIMSS satellite blog has a nice description of the unique meteorology of this storm.

Jeff Masters
Sidewalk buckled with tree.
Sidewalk buckled with tree.
Wind storm damage in Athena
Trucks down as result of wind
Trucks down as result of wind
This is the result of high winds along the Blue Mountains

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you for the update and latest info. Dr.
Is that radar of the next wave??? I remember friends of mine sending me pictures of when her daughter lived in Reno (she went to school there), they were always flooding during high rains!
The CMC is doing it again:

Forecast: Heavy Snow
The CMC model is not the only model forecasting tropical cyclone development. Both the NOGAPS and UKMET models develop systems with the UKMET showing a rather strong system developing.
img src="Photobucket" width="" height="" alt="" />
img src="Photobucket" width="" height="" alt="" />
Thanks for the update Dr M
Shen
How strong can the system actually get, if forms at all? Because I'd have to extremely disagree with anything forming in this time of year. It's January! The models, in my opinion, probably mixed up an extratropical low, making it subtropical/tropical. In my opinion, development of tropical activity only happens in May-December.
A cat2 hurricane has formed in March before, so anything is possible...
Photobucket


AREAS AFFECTED...SIERRA MOUNTAINS OF CA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 051937Z - 060030Z

HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SIERRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS/WEST FACING SLOPES.

WITH UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA...GRADUALLY COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS NORTHERN CA AMIDST STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE LIKLIHOOD OF CONVECTIVE SNOW/POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSNOW ACROSS THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING HAS BEEN COMMON NEAR/JUST OFF THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AREA LATE THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH BANDS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION SPREADING INLAND. AN EASTWARD
EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS PLUME SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL SIERRA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH
HEAVY SNOW INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIERRA TOWARD 00Z PER
LATEST NAM/RUC/SREF GUIDANCE.
I know we have been cracking jokes about the CMC on drugs all year as we have watched the tropical cyclone season. However, I have a LOT more faith in the CMC as a predictor of non-tropical lows, especially across N America.
Suggestion to people posting forecast maps:

Please make the width=640 or less. Some people still are using smaller screens than the actual size of those images, and the blog doesn't do the auto-resize in some versions of Windows.
Tropical Low Helen (05U) Revised Update 5

Issued 2100 UTC JAN 05 2008
Updated 2300 UTC to include new data

Tropical Low Helen now over the Eastern Gulf of Capentaria, near the Island of Groote Eylandt at 13.1S-137.9E. Movement is due east. Position was based on a microwave pass by AMSU at 1952 UTC this afternoon but adjusted in the revised update based on new QuikSCAT data. Movement was based on conventional satellite imagery and Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC). Surface winds are estimated by TMI satellite derived winds to be around 25 knots. Two marine reports verified these observations. Minimum surface pressure being reported is 999 mb. Satellite imagery showed a recent burst of convection south of the center but most likely due to the local diurnal max. A more persistent band to the northeast still marks the cyclone signature. The Deep Layer Mean steering winds south of the monsoon trough will influence movement towards the southeast. The cyclone will be monitored for re-intensification over the Gulf, as conditions there are forecast to remain ideal for tropical cyclogenesis.

by W456


Tropical Low Helen (05U) Update 4


Issued 1500 UTC 05 JAN 2008

Tropical Low Helen along the Capentaria Coast. As of 1500 UTC, the center of the low was accurately positioned along Cape Arnhem at 13.0S-136.1E. QuikSCAT and surface observations indicate the low level center is emerging over the Gulf of Capentaria. Movement continues towards the east. Reported surface winds over land are much lower than reported ocean winds. Since the cyclone is moving back over water, the estimated surface winds will be based on marine observations and now stands at 25 knots. It should be noted that in update 3 the winds were 15 knots. There has not been an increase in the overall winds. Simply, surface friction over land accounted for the reduction in wind speed in the previous update. Estimated surface pressure was 1000 mb. Though the cyclone lost most of its organization over land, it can still be distinguished from the surrounding convection. There is still some cyclonic curvature to this system though the circulation has become ill defined. The current forecast still calls for the low to move into the Gulf of Carpentaria while re-intensifying over 90F waters and ideal vertical wind shear then make a second landfall across the Cape York Peninsula.

by W456
Cyclone Phase diagram of the suspected low pressure. Another subtropical headache.
Here's a high-resolution shot of the storm before the meat of it came on shore:

http://weather.psychoses.org/sat/img/tigw01/2008/01/04/tigw01_20080104_2100.png

11MB 5000x5000 file, so be patient
18. JFV 7:47 PM AST on January 05, 2008
where would it head weather


its anyone guess...the steering currents seem to be weak as the cyclone is not moving on forecast models. Its similar to 95L where the bridging subtropical ridge cut the cyclone off from the main deep westerlies. In this case its the Bermuda Ridge and not the Azores Ridge.
In Chino Hills, just east of Los Angeles, a flash flood swept away a vehicle that had gone around a barricade. One occupant was found hypothermic and clinging to a tree, but the vehicle and its other occupant are missing.

The people that perform these senseless acts should be charged with vehicular manslaughter, just as a drunken driver that kills another in a car accident would.

Simply charging people for their rescue doesn't seem to get the point across.

People that ignore the safety precautions put in place by local officials should be charged with a crime.
22. JLPR

well we got a nice low but with very light winds I suppose this is the low the models want to predict
21. JFV 8:25 PM AST on January 05, 2008
I see weather, so it could certainly get quite interesting with this system soon enough then, wouldn't you agree?


yeah if forecast holds true
also the low intialize by divergence ahead of an appraching shortwave....i still cant shake off the notion that this has something to do with 95L....i stop tracking it a good while now.
if the systems remains cut off long enough like we saw with 95L then something could form. As long as it does not interact with those potent winter cold fronts.
29. JLPR
JLRP your personal thoughts on this potentially developing tropical system plz? I would greatly appreciate it. Thank you bro.

umm right now this system isnt anything its just a naked circulation but if the forecast is real then it should start to get some convection and we may actually see a subtropical system. who know maybe Arthur wants to come early.
But according to this forecast the low or trof could clash with a cold front.
That is from the remnants of 95L. It weakened badly wednesday but is trying again. Last week NH animated.
30. JFV 1:55 AM GMT on January 06, 2008
Thanks a million for your expert analysis JLRP. We'll just have to wait and see what happens I suppose. Regardless, this thing shouldn't become a significant threat to anyone or anything anytime soon, if at all that is.


no problem =) and thats right just have to wait and see
33. JLPR
whoops I used my other account =P
I think that cold front should catch it & eventually take our swirl North. That's the one that froze FL. Has the record inducing surface high behind it (though weakening). It's also digging deep. Looks like it may get more together as the cold front approaches it.
37. JLPR
Everyone got a lot of new wunderphotos im like crazy taking photos everyday lol I guess I need something else to do while the next hurricane season comes =P
here is a link to my wunderphotos =)
Link
hope everyone passes by and rate the pics I sure would love some ratings =D
take care
JL
38. P451
In regards to the potential new STS in this image loop you can see what remained of 95L extremely elongated in the center of the atlantic meeting up with that massive front --- then towards the end of the loop you can see what appears to be a new low attempting to cut itself off which I assume *might* be that new potential STS.

As has been said above - I can't see how it would survive the front which still seems quite potent at least in terms of upper level westerly winds -- you can see the potential low to the right.

P451~ the precipital water loop you posted only goes back to the 3rd. Besides using the precipital water which just doesn't seem near as useful as a WV loop, NOAA quit tracking it on the 1st when it was located at 23.6N 42.1W & became too weak. Looking at the NH WV I posted a few back, which goes back to Dec 31st, it heads east a little after that gets shredded the next day & this has been developing out of the reminents of the 95L low ever since.
It's the remnants of Pab-Low, 'come back around again. Or, maybe not.
Tropical Low Helen (05U) Update 6

Issued: 0400 UTC JAN 06 2008

Tropical Low Helen is located over the Gulf of Carpentaria at 13.1S-139.04E moving towards the east near 17 knots. Position was based on 1 km visible imagery, ASCAT winds and surface observations while movement was base on extrapolation. Estimated surface winds are near 20 knots with higher gusts and estimated pressure is 1002 mb.

Visible imagery and surface observations have indicated that the circulation of Helen is becoming more defined. Surface observations within a 500 km radius indicate a more defined cyclonic curvature while visible imagery show increasing curve bands of the limited cloud clusters. The cyclone will continue towards the east and then south of east under the influence of deep steering flow west of a anticyclonic circulation. The cyclone will then make landfall across the Cape York Peninsula and dissipate inland.

By W456

2 KM
42. JLPR
Actually this is a new low 95l continued moving west until it became so elongated that it just became a band in front of the front now this low is going to do the same, i guess =P
If this does develop, it'll only be the second Atlantic subtropical or tropical cyclone on record. Last one was in 1978.
Of note, the WeatherUnderground is the 10th most frequently visited news site of US Internet users.
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

The western extent of the Bermuda High protrudes into the Gulf of Mexico producing 10-20 knots of return flow and fair weather. Patches of shallow cloudiness over the Gulf. Strong upper winds advecting cirrus spikes from the Central Gulf...over Florida and into the Western Atlantic near 70W.

A ridge-trough patterns is over the Western Atlantic. Flow around the ridge is advecting patches of mid-high level cloudiness and possible precipitation from the Southeast United States to 60W north of 30N. Meanwhile, an upper trough has its axis extending from the Eastern tip of the Dominican Republic to 35N/60W. Synoptic scale sinking motion induced by dry air and upper level convergence is producing fair weather over the Atlantic south of 30N from 60W to Florida. This pattern in turn is supporting surface ridging with patches of stratocumulus rotating in and around anticyclonic flow. Synoptic scale rising motion is ahead of trough, induced by upper divergence, is producing scattered showers between 60W and 50W from 20N to 30N.

by W456
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Surface ridging is producing 10-20 knot easterly flow over the Caribbean and fair weather. The easterly flow is dumping moisture along the Central American terrain. Otherwise...no significant weather happening across the Caribbean today.

by W456
Wow what an amazing update with the pictures Dr.Jeff Masters fascinating! Now hows Michigan treating you?
Preliminary Update

Surface observations, satellite imagery and QuikSCAT winds indicate that the center may have been repositioned more northward near the deep convective mass. Wind shear has drop to 5-10 knots which also suggest some organization. Microwave imagery would be helpful in verifying these observations.



Yuba County Worker Killed by Tree Limb



The ferocious storms battering northern California claimed the life of a Yuba County employee killed by a fallen tree limb Friday, Yuba County authorities said.

Milton Smith, a 28-year veteran with the Yuba County Public Works Department, died Friday on Griffith Avenue just south of North Beale Road in Linda when he was struck by a falling eucalyptus tree branch while clearing roads of debris, Yuba County spokesman Russ Brown said.

Smith, 57, was rushed to Fremont-Rideout Hospital and later flown to Sutter Memorial Hospital in Roseville, where he died a short time later.

"Our Yuba County family is profoundly saddened at the loss of Milton and the spirit he brought to his job," said Yuba County Supervisor Hal Stocker. "We are so very grateful to have shared in his life for nearly three decades."

Smith was the second Californian to die in the severe winter weather blanketing the state this week. A 25-year-old Corona woman died early Saturday when her pickup truck was swept into a flood channel in the San Bernardino County town of Chino east of Los Angeles.

Nevada Levee Fails; Floods Hundreds of Fernley Homes


FERNLEY, Nev. (AP) -- A ruptured levee sent a frigid "wall of water" from a rain-swollen canal into this high desert town early Saturday, flooding hundreds of homes and forcing the rescue of more than a dozen people by helicopter and boat.

To the west, a dangerous layer of heavy snow covered the Northern California mountains as rain and wind from the third storm in as many days hit the West Coast. Hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses in California, Oregon and Washington remained without power Saturday.

No injuries were reported in the flood in Fernley, about 30 miles east of Reno, after a section of the Truckee Canal up to 150 feet long broke soon after 4 a.m. As many as 3,500 people were temporarily stranded and more than 100 had gathered Saturday afternoon at a shelter set up at a high school.

Eric Cornett estimated the water was about 2 feet deep and rising fast when drove away from his home with his wife and three children.

"We saw water coming in the back door and tried to grab as much stuff as possible to save it. The water was rising very quickly and it was scary. The water was freezing. I couldn't even feel my feet," he said.

Lyon County Fire Chief Scott Huntley, one of the first on the scene, described it as a "wall of water about two feet high going down Farm District Road."

"In some places folks had to deal with 8 feet of water," he said. "Firefighters were in chest-deep water making rescues."

Two helicopters aided rescue crews in boats in rescuing at least 18 people.

"Some folks were standing in their driveways and some were on top of their buildings," said Zip Upham, a spokesman for the Navy training facility.

By afternoon, the Truckee River water flowing into the canal was diverted upstream, said Ernie Schank, president of the Truckee-Carson Irrigation District. As the water receded, Fernley Mayor Todd Cutler said he had reports of damage to at least 300 to 400 homes.

One official suggested burrowing rodents might have contributed to the break in the levee along with the heavy rains, but the cause wasn't clear.

"We have to look at the weather as the culprit right now, but we are not sure of that," Huntley said.

The century-old agricultural town has grown in recent decades to about 20,000 people, many whom commute to Reno.

Maureen Tabata said she and her husband were rescued in a boat after she awoke to see "water everywhere."

"We did our best to block the water but it came rushing in through the doors and garage. The force of the water knocked over the TV," Tabata said. "All of our furniture, carpet — everything is destroyed. It's just unbelievable
Water vapor imagery of the Western Indian Ocean showing the comparative sizes of 95L Invest and a large extratropical upper low south of Madagascar.

Hey W456...you know that large extratropical low is Ex-Elnus?
Looks like a long tough day for a lot of folks. Best wishes and God bless.
54. extreme236 1:49 PM AST on January 06, 2008
Hey W456...you know that large extratropical low is Ex-Elnus?


elnus was rather absorbed into it.
Hey at least no drought for CA this year :) Resivoirs should be fine this summer. I agree also about people driving through/around barricades into flooded streets. All are darwin award contenders.

However, I have seen news reports that the barricade had been removed by teens as a juvenile prank shortly before the man and his girlfriend who drive into the water near Chino Hills.

Not sure if that is true, but if it is, those people should be charged with manslaughter.
The GFS long-range continues to show the development of a surface low along a front in the Gulf of Mexico.

Dark hopefully that low will give me some good rain. We had some heavy rains over a lot of south and central GA before the cold snap, but they mostly missed the islands with me recording less than 0.6" Hopefully that low will form and I will see more rain than that!
I have a question---how are they able to make radar precipitation estimates in the Sierra Nevada mountains? I would think that ground clutter would make such estimates impossible, though I guess I am wrong. I don't doubt that the west side of the Sierra Nevada have had insane amounts of liquid-equivalent precipitation during the last storm.
The California storm was less a major precipitation event than it was a major wind event. Even the Sierras have really only received a modest dumping by normal Sierra standards. The snowfall seems phenomenal because snowfall in other parts of the country is usually measured in inches, not feet.

It remains to be seen whether the drought danger is over as far as runoff from the snowpack this spring. The snowpack was running pretty low for this time of year before the storm, and even this event may not be enough. We'll see when they next measure the snowpack.
58. Drakoen 3:13 PM AST on January 06, 2008
The GFS long-range continues to show the development of a surface low along a front in the Gulf of Mexico.


looks non tropical...look how the isotherms intersects the isobars...baroclinic characteristic.
I don't think Drakoen was forecasting a tropical system. He doesn't say so. Anyway, water temps are now around 70 in the northern interior gulf away from the loop current. Just looks like a classic wintertime gulf low forming on a front.
my bad
95S organizing nicely

456 its 95S not 95L, 95L was I belive breifly (although the NHC was on Vacation and didnt name it) Pablo.
67. JLPR
umm getting cold here at 69 degree kinda cold for a tropical island looks like the cold front got here and its raining to =P
66. CybrTeddy 4:17 PM AST on January 06, 2008
456 its 95S not 95L, 95L was I belive breifly (although the NHC was on Vacation and didnt name it) Pablo.


sorry about that 95L is still stuck in my head
what's the coldest you've ever had there JLPR?
Hey guys. i just returned from a cruise in the Caribbean and I waned to comment on the extraordinarily bad weather that we encountered. I was on the Carnival Legend out of Tampa visiting The Caymans, Cozumel, Belize, and Honduras. The rain began shortly after leaving the Caymans and that night on the way to Mexico we were having winds of 60 kn and waves 9 meters. (This info. from the TV channel of updates on weather conditions aboard the ship) I imagine all of this was due to the same front that pushed through the SE and made it soooo cold. Tell me if any of you remember how the front looked as it was in this area around tues-thurs...thanks
This was in February:


Not impossible for tropical systems to exist in the GOM off-season. This particular one actually stregthened after hitting the Florida peninsula.
Tropical Low Helen (05U) Update 7

Tropical Low Helen is crossing the Cape York Peninsula. Extrapolation based on the last visible imagery at 0400 UTC, the last QuikSCAT pass at 0824 UTC, a SSMI microwave overpass at 0924 UTC and surface observations at 1100 UTC suggest the center is near 13.8S-141.5E moving east southeastward. The surface circulation continues to remain strong with winds estimated around 20 knots. Surface pressure is estimated to be 999 mb. Helen remains a weak tropical cyclone in terms of convective activity but is still maintaining her cyclonic signature. The cyclone moved too quickly over the Gulf of Capentaria to have anytime to redevelop. The cyclone should continue further inland and dissipate.

by W456




73. JLPR
69. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 4:22 PM AST on January 06, 2008
what's the coldest you've ever had there JLPR?


I dont remember the temperature getting under 65degree so I would say thats the lowest =P
63. StSimonsIslandGAGuy 7:44 PM GMT on January 06, 2008
I don't think Drakoen was forecasting a tropical system. He doesn't say so. Anyway, water temps are now around 70 in the northern interior gulf away from the loop current. Just looks like a classic wintertime gulf low forming on a front.


right. Looks like a baroclinic low forming.
75. JLPR
This image was posted by Adrian FLWeatherFreak91 and you can see the cold front was a strong one =P
263. hurricane23 4:34 PM AST on January 02, 2008

71. weatherblog 8:38 PM GMT on January 06, 2008
This was in February:


Not impossible for tropical systems to exist in the GOM off-season. This particular one actually stregthened after hitting the Florida peninsula.

-------

The strengthening was most likely due to interaction with a baroclinic zone and extra-tropical transition.
Previous Dr. Master's blog said the resaviors(sp) should be full when the spring melt occurs...so drought is over.
Powerful storm over the North Central Pacific

Extratropical Low south of Madagascar (bottom)
95S (top)

Another low just east of the UK

Another shot the pacific low with little brother looking rather subtropical (but its not)

Java Loop of Pacific Low

Interesting facts:

For tropical cumulus clouds to sustain over dust riden SAL in Summer, there needs to be a supersaturation inside the cloud to sustain condensation in the face of vapor removal.

Superstaturation
To cause water vapor to exceed the normal saturation vapor pressure at a given temperature. Typically only 4% of air is water vapor. The pressure of this air is known as partial pressure of water.
GFS 18z

Rain chances look good 7 days out for Florida. Show help ease the drought.

456 why do get Déjà vu when I look at those Pacific storm pics? You sure you haven't posted those before? LOL
This is ridiculous:



Makes the same day last year look cold by comparison - and even that was 15 degrees warmer than normal.
84. ShenValleyFlyFish 8:20 PM AST on January 06, 2008
456 why do get Dj vu when I look at those Pacific storm pics? You sure you haven't posted those before? LOL


Those are pics from today.........they do look similiar. Also didnt u look at Java Loop?
Nadi: Tropical Disturbance Summary

RSMC Nadi hasn't numbered this system yet but gives it a low to moderate potential of developing into a tropical cyclone.
456 I was trying to be funny. I better keep my day job.
89. ShenValleyFlyFish 7:55 PM EST on January 06, 2008
456 I was trying to be funny. I better keep my day job.


:-)
North Pacific's like this every winter.
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance [1004 hPa] located near 17.2S 56.4E or 415 kms north-northeast of the coast of Reunion had 10 minuted sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. The disturbance was reported as moving south-southwest at 5 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 18.4S 56.8E 20 knots [Perturbation Tropicale]
24 HRS: 19.8S 56.7E 20 knots [Dissipating]

Additional Information
======================
This weak circulation has a poor potential for intensification. It generates nevertheless very bad weather condition north of Mascareignes Islands. It actually undergoes southerly vertical wind shear and deep convection is only present in the northern semi-circle. Location of the partially exposed low level circulation center is estimated by extrapolation of the last most reliable satellite data. Winds estimation is also estimated according to this swath.

Situation is poorly analyzed by numerical models, actual forecast location and intensity are rather uncertain. Only the french model Aladin analyzes this low.

The current intensity of this system does not justify issuance of regular six hour advisories.
Next Climate Change

Lack of sunspots to bring extended period of deep cold to the planet

_____________________________
.
Space and Science Research Center

PRESS RELEASE: SSRC 1-2008

2 January 08 - Today, the Space and Science Research Center, (SSRC) in Orlando, Florida announces that it has confirmed the recent web announcement of NASA solar physicists that there are substantial changes occurring in the sun’s surface. The SSRC has further researched these changes and has concluded they will bring about the next climate change to one of a long lasting cold era.

Today, Director of the SSRC, John Casey has reaffirmed earlier research he led that independently discovered the sun’s changes are the result of a family of cycles that bring about climate shifts from cold climate to warm and back again.

"We today confirm the recent announcement by NASA that there are historic and important changes taking place on the sun’s surface. This will have only one outcome - a new climate change is coming that will bring an extended period of deep cold to the planet. This is not however a unique event for the planet although it is critically important news to this and the next generations. It is but the normal sequence of alternating climate changes that has been going on for thousands of years. Further according to our research, this series of solar cycles are so predictable that they can be used to roughly forecast the next series of climate changes many decades in advance. I have verified the accuracy of these cycles’ behavior over the last 1,100 years relative to temperatures on Earth, to well over 90%."

As to what these changes are Casey says, "The sun’s surface flows have slowed dramatically as NASA has indicated. This process of surface movement, what NASA calls the "conveyor belt" essentially sweeps up old sunspots and deposits new ones. NASA’s studies have found that when the surface movement slows down, sunspot counts drop significantly. All records of sunspot counts and other proxies of solar activity going back 6,000 years clearly validates our own findings that when we have sunspot counts lower then 50 it means only one thing - an intense cold climate, globally. NASA says the solar cycle 25, the one after the next that starts this spring will be at 50 or lower. The general opinion of the SSRC scientists is that it could begin even sooner within 3 years with the next solar cycle 24. What we are saying today is that my own research and that of the other scientists at the SSRC verifies that NASA is right about one thing – a solar cycle of 50 or lower is headed our way. With this next solar minimum predicted by NASA, what I call a "solar hibernation," the SSRC forecasts a much colder Earth just as it has transpired before for thousands of years. If NASA is the more accurate on the schedule, then we may see even warmer temperatures before the bottom falls out. If the SSRC and other scientists around the world are correct then we have only a few years to prepare before 20-30 years of lasting and possibly dangerous cold arrive."

When asked about what this will mean to the average person on the street, Casey was firm. "The last time this particular cycle regenerated was over 200 years ago. I call it the "Bi-Centennial Cycle" solar cycle. It took place between 1793 and 1830, the so-called Dalton Minimum, a period of extreme cold that resulted in what historian John D. Post called the ‘last great subsistence crisis.’ With that cold came massive crops losses, food riots, famine and disease. I believe this next climate change will be much stronger and has the potential to once more cause widespread crop losses globally with the resultant ill effects. The key difference for this next Bi-Centennial Cycle’s impact versus the last is that we will have over 8 billion mouths to feed in the next coldest years where as we had only 1 billion the last time. Among other effects like social and economic disruption, we are facing the real prospect of the ‘perfect storm of global food shortages’ in the next climate change. In answer to the question, everyone on the street will be affected."

... Soon, I believe this will be recognized as the most important climate story of this century."

See entire press release:
http://www.spaceandscience.net/id16.html

Headquartered in Orlando, Florida, the Space and Science Research Center (SSRC) is the leading science and engineering research company internationally, that specializes in the analysis of and planning for climate changes based upon the "Relational Cycle Theory."

SSRC has on its staff of consulting scientists, some of the world's best known experts in the field of solar physics pertaining to the research into the matter of the coming major solar minimum.
Think the cool down may arrive by tomorrow? Weather girl said we may break the record for the date..79 degrees.
Very large upper low over the Sahara....


night
Tropical disturbance 07R is located near 17.2S-56.3E
Tropical disturbance 95S centered near 16.2S-56.3E


Aren't those really the same storm, being just one degree apart and with weak storms like that, positions can easily vary by that much among different agencies?
Another shot of the hurricane-force low developing in the north Pacific.

Again...the huge Pacific low...
(Well, I tried to upload it to ImageShack and share it, but it doesn't seem to be working for me. So here's the link instead:
Link
Looks like there's another swirl coming along after that big one. My goodness, but this is a strange winter.
[i]Tropical disturbance 07R is located near 17.2S-56.3E
Tropical disturbance 95S centered near 16.2S-56.3E

Aren't those really the same storm, being just one degree apart and with weak storms like that, positions can easily vary by that much among different agencies?[/i]

-----------------------------------------------

95S/07R position as of 0:00am UTC

from NRL 17.2S 56.3E
from sub-RSMC Mauritius 17.2S 56.4E


There you go. now it can be shared by all =)
major severe weather out break tops to 50000 to 60000 feet in abnormal warm sector as flow off of gom combine with flow from cal trackin ne to nw grt lakes providing dividing line for the set up of severe weather from gulf coast n to mid/lower grt lakes beginning during the next 12 to 24 hrs
At 03:00 AM, Tropical Depression 07F [1008 hPa] analyzed near 18.0S 175.5W and is moving slowly. Position is FAIR based on Multispectral satellite visible and infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation with sea surface temperatures near 28-29C. There is a more definite organization in the convection surrounding the system. (more so around the eastern half) The cyclonic circulation is evident from the surface to 250 HPA with the low level circulation center partly exposed. Tropical Depression 07F is located in a low to moderate vertical wind shear environment with global models picking up the system with very little intensification and moving slowly towards southwest.

The potential of this system to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is MODERATE.
100. MichaelSTL 12:20 AM AST on January 07, 2008
Tropical disturbance 07R is located near 17.2S-56.3E
Tropical disturbance 95S centered near 16.2S-56.3E


if u mean my posts...update 2 was 12 hrs earlier than update 3...and they are not from the official agencies.....
Tropical Disturbance 07R Update 3

Issued: 0400 UTC JAN 07 2008

Tropical disturbance 07R is located near 17.2S-56.3E. Position based on visible imagery. Movement towards the south-southeast. Movement based on 14 km infrared imagery. Estimated surface winds are 20-25 knots and estimated surface pressure remains constant at 1010 mb. LLCC remains south of the deepest convection. Infrared center showed an organizing system earlier today but tonight's first visible images showed the center well south of Update 2, just on the fringes of the convective mass. Dvorak estimated intensity* stands at CI 1.5. Wind shear above the disturbance ranges from 5-20 knots. SSTs are 86F. The future of this system is uncertain. Near term, conditions should favor tropical cyclogenesis, but new data suggest shear will increase from the south induced by the large cold core upper low south of Madagascar.

by W456

Tropical Invest 95S Update (Revised) 2

Issued: 1500 UTC JAN 06 2008

Tropical disturbance 95S centered near 16.2S-56.3E. Movement drifting southeastward. Position method was based on WindSat which place the circulation just on the southern edge of the convective mass. Movement was based on 24 hr position trends. Estimated surface winds is 20 knots. Estimated surface pressure is 1010 based on surrounding synoptic reports. The circulation of 95S remains broad and somewhat closed. The highest winds are within the region to the northwest and southeast where the low pressure area meets the monsoon westerlies and southeast trades. Satellite imagery have indicated that 95S appears to be gradually organize based infrared bias. Curve bands have become more distinct throughout the day. Dvorak estimated intensity stands at CI 1.5. Wind shear above the disturbance ranges from 5-20 knots. SSTs are 86F. Conditions are forecast to remain favorable for development in the near term. The steering flow is rather weak in the area so movement in the next 24-48 hrs is uncertain.

by W456

* based on me. Not the official estimate.

DISCLAIMER: These advisories are not official. I constructed them based on my knowledge of tropical forecasting. Visit the JTWC for any official information.

Tropical Disturbance 07R Update 4

Issued 1200 UTC JAN 07 2008

Tropical Disturbance 07R is centered near 17.5S-56.9E. Movement towards the southeast. Position was based on visible imagery and synoptic reports from Mauritius and Reunion. Surface winds are estimated to be 20 knots based on QuikSCAT, WindSat and cloud motion vectors moving into the system from the south. Estimated surface pressure is in the range of 1007-1009 mb, this is based on 24 hr pressure tendencies from the synoptic reports. Visible imagery showed the center has gradually move under the convective mass. The overall system still remains lop-sided. Wind shear is below 10 knots due to the development of a small upper anticyclonic circulation over the disturbance, whose outflow has skewed convection towards the north. Sea surface temperatures around the disturbance is 85F. The CMC is indicating wind shear should remain low enough for the cyclone to gain some organization in the next 24 hrs as it moves towards the south-southeast.

by W456
Good morning
I hope that low forms in the gulf. Tropical, non tropical, sub-tropical....just GET LOW! and form a hair further south would ya? South Florida needs the rain worse than the rest......I would hate to see it go north of Lake O.
Ummmm, i love january thaws,kind of lets you get your breath before the next onslaught of winter.