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Heavy rains, snows, and season's first tornadoes hit Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:41 PM GMT on January 10, 2012

The nation's first major winter storm rumbled through Texas yesterday, bringing much appreciated heavy rains. The storm set also spawned the year's first two tornadoes, and brought record-setting heavy snows to West Texas. A wide swath of 3 - 5 inches of rain fell over much of Eastern Texas and Southern Louisiana, bringing isolated flooding to the drought-ravaged region. Houston, Texas received 4.06" of rain, breaking the previous record rainfall for the date of 2.54". It was the heaviest rainfall for Houston since the 4.87" that fell October 15, 2007. Drought-stricken Texas has now received the heaviest precipitation, relative to average, of any state in the U.S. during 2012, thanks to a highly abnormal jet stream pattern that is keeping the northern polar branch of the jet stream far to the north in Canada. The latest GFS model forecast predicts that this unusually dry pattern will persist for at least the next ten days, with the possibility of it breaking down during the last week of January.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation ending Tuesday morning, January 10, 2012, shows a wide swath of 3 - 5 inches for much of Eastern Texas and Southern Louisiana.


Figure 2. Departure of precipitation from average for the 7-day period January 2 - January 9, ending at 7 am EST. Texas has been the wettest state in the U.S., and the rest of the country has been incredibly dry. Image credit: NOAA/Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Year's first tornado hits Texas City
The first tornado of 2012 touched down near 1pm CST in Texas City yesterday. The twister hit the Mall of the Mainland, damaging its roof and blowing out windows of parked cars. No injuries were reported, but the storm flooded the mall with 2 - 3 inches of water, and the mall remains closed today. A separate tornado affected Fort Bend County, Texas, but caused no damage or injuries. January is typically the quietest month of the year for tornadoes in the U.S.; during the past three years, we've averaged seventeen tornadoes in the month of January. A few more tornadoes are possible today, as NOAA's Storm Prediction Center predicts that a slight chance of severe weather will continue along the cold front of the storm that spawned yesterday's tornadoes. New Orleans, the Florida Panhandle, and most of Mississippi and Alabama are at risk of seeing a few tornadoes and damaging winds from severe thunderstorms.

Heavy snow in West Texas sets all-time snow records for Midland
Yesterday's storm dumped 10.6 inches of snow on Midland, Texas, setting a record for the heaviest 1-day snow in city history. The previous record was the 9.8" that fell December 10 - 11, 1998. Midland's total snowfall for the winter of 2011 - 2012 is now 19.5". With winter not even half over, this smashes their previous seasonal snowfall record of 13.9", set in the winter of 1946 - 1947. Remarkably, Midland (population 111,000) has had more snow this year than America's four snowiest cities with population greater than 75,000--Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo (in New York's lake-effect snow belts), and Duluth, Minnesota:



Heavy snows hit Southern Alaska
If you're wondering where all of the snow that usually hits California's Sierras and the northern tier of U.S. states is going, the answer is Southern Alaska. This winter's highly abnormal jet stream pattern is slamming an unending series of heavy snow storms into Southern Alaska, where the snow totals are mind-bending. A snow storm on Sunday dumped 15.2" of snow on Valdez, Alaska, bringing the total snow this season to 290.5". That's 24.2 feet (7.4 meters), and is 12 feet (3.7 meters) above what the city normal has by January 10. The city is still a ways from breaking their monthly or seasonal snowfall records--their highest monthly snowfall was 180" in February 1996, and their highest seasonal total was 550.7", set during the winter of 1989 - 1990. Valdez received 152.2" of snow during December 2011, setting a new December snowfall record (records go back to 1949.) According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, Valdez is the snowiest low-level location in the world and averages about 328" every winter season. The Alaska state snowfall record is 974.1" (81.2', or 24.7 meters) at Thompson Pass in 1952-1953, just up the highway from Valdez. This record is beyond reach, since the site is no longer is no longer operating. The latest forecast for Valdez calls for another 10 - 15 inches of snow today.

I'll have a new post on Wednesday or Thursday.

Jeff Masters
Houston Flood Day Skyline
Houston Flood Day Skyline
I shot this skyline during a short break in the rain today. We needed rain so badly here in Houston but we got too much of it all at once and now there's flooding all over the city! For my live webcam view approxiamtely where this was taken (you can see the webcam in the photo), Click here. For more of my photography, visit my Flickr page.
Heavy Houston Rain
Heavy Houston Rain
Field flooding at Rice University due to heavy rain on the morning of 1/9/2012
Marshmallow Tree
Marshmallow Tree
Time to pick the marshmallows:) Palmer, Alaska
Midland Snow
Midland Snow
Snow fall taken Jan 9 2012 abt an hour ago.

Winter Weather Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

"Remarkably, Midland (population 111,000) has had more snow this year than America's four snowiest cities with population greater than 75,000--Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo (in New York's lake-effect snow belts), and Duluth, Minnesota."

Simply incredible.

I've been reading of the impressive snowfall amounts in Alaska, and how--strangely enough--heavy rain atop the new snow has frozen, leading to extreme avalanche hazards.
Nice work, thanks for the blog, Jeff!
morning all
Thanks DRM. Yesterday was nice. Can we have some more please. :D
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Thanks DRM. Yesterday was nice. Can we have some more please. :D
Don't be Greed Southeast Texas remember there are parts of Texas not receiving much rain at all like me. :) I hate this drought and I am not looking forward to Summer if I did not have kids and a grandson coming soon I would move. LOL

Im thinking YES
Hi Bohonk,

I know what you mean, barely a trace here in Lubbock. :-(

Was watching the heavy cloud south of town yesterday but none of it came up here.
Hope Breckenridge gets some snow by February 25th.....
Quoting Neapolitan:
"Remarkably, Midland (population 111,000) has had more snow this year than America's four snowiest cities with population greater than 75,000--Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo (in New York's lake-effect snow belts), and Duluth, Minnesota."

Simply incredible.



Texas out-snowing the snow belt is just wrong on so many levels >.<
The ITCZ is virtually non-existent...
Quoting SPLbeater:

Im thinking YES

YES!!!!

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 11:51 pm WST on Tuesday 10 January 2012





A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Wallal to Dampier,
including the towns of Port Hedland and Karratha.

At 11:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category 1 was estimated to be
350 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
460 kilometres north northeast of Karratha and
moving south at 20 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving in a southerly direction towards the Pilbara
coast, and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour
in coastal areas from Port Hedland to Wallal early on Wednesday morning,
extending west to Dampier later on Wednesday. Heidi is currently a Category 1
system, and is unlikely to intensify further before reaching the coast.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of
the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central
and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood
Advices for further details.

Tides will be higher than expected.


BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and
Whim Creek, including Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland and Whim Creek need
to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first
aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Heidi at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.2 degrees South 119.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 20 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Wednesday 11 January.


Goodnight all.
Strong to severe thunderstorms pushing across the Gulf today on a bee-line for the FL Penisula. Get ready guys as Wednesday looks nasty for FL.

Lots of lightning with these storms in the Gulf.

Good Afternoon. Yup, that squall line headed for the Florida Peninsula is starting to take "shape"; looking like it's preping for a nasty quick swipe. It will hopefully be a quick moving system but we also need the rain...... At least these winter systems do not generate as many tornadoes as the later fronts we will see in the Spring.
"Remarkably, Midland (population 111,000) has had more snow this year than America's four snowiest cities with population greater than 75,000--Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo (in New York's lake-effect snow belts), and Duluth, Minnesota."

Simply incredible.

I've been reading about that heavy Alaska snows, and how now heavy rains have fallen atop some of them, making for extreme avalanche danger. Yikes...

(Silly kids.)
Quoting Neapolitan:
"Remarkably, Midland (population 111,000) has had more snow this year than America's four snowiest cities with population greater than 75,000--Syracuse, Rochester, and Buffalo (in New York's lake-effect snow belts), and Duluth, Minnesota."

Simply incredible.

I've been reading about that heavy Alaska snows, and how now heavy rains have fallen atop some of them, making for extreme avalanche danger. Yikes...

quoting for good measure... cause yes folks, this is the 'violation' :P
According to the Euro the Circunpolar Vortex currently over Alaska will spit in two, with a piece moving southeastward toward the Great Lakes(the other one near Scandinavia) by months end. While Alaska might get a ridge.

On the other hand, the GFS wants to first move the PV over Central Canada(good) and then back towards Alaska by early February(bad).

I think the Euro is on to something since the Arctic Oscillation is expected to dip later this month. But if the GFS winds up verifying then the ALA PV will most likely be transient. One reason is because models are gun ho on this next SSW event after a brief relapse.

Magor Polar Strattuspheric Warming Events if they come down to the troposphere correctly can cause the AO/NAO to crash, a Greenland/Davis Straight Block, and in turn blockbuster 1-95 snowstorms accompanied by very sustainable bitter cold air to the East(US) all else being equal(+PNA/-EPO exe).
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Don't be Greed Southeast Texas remember there are parts of Texas not receiving much rain at all like me. :) I hate this drought and I am not looking forward to Summer if I did not have kids and a grandson coming soon I would move. LOL


Got merely 0.1" in San Antonio. It's hard to imagine 4" fell to the east of here.
Quoting AussieStorm:

YES!!!!

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 11:51 pm WST on Tuesday 10 January 2012





A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Wallal to Dampier,
including the towns of Port Hedland and Karratha.

At 11:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category 1 was estimated to be
350 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
460 kilometres north northeast of Karratha and
moving south at 20 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving in a southerly direction towards the Pilbara
coast, and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour
in coastal areas from Port Hedland to Wallal early on Wednesday morning,
extending west to Dampier later on Wednesday. Heidi is currently a Category 1
system, and is unlikely to intensify further before reaching the coast.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of
the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central
and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood
Advices for further details.

Tides will be higher than expected.


BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and
Whim Creek, including Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland and Whim Creek need
to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first
aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Heidi at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.2 degrees South 119.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 20 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 995 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Wednesday 11 January.


Goodnight all.


i go by JTWC for advisories, and myself for TWO's. if the JTWC dont have it out, wunderground wont either :D
With these storm systems moving into the Southeast this early with severe weather, the possibility remains we could see a super storm in Mar. like the "Storm of the Century" that would drag snow very far to the Southeast. Thoughts anyone?
According to the town's official website, since November 1, Cordova, Alaska, has received 44.24" of rain and 176" of snow.

Anchorage has already received 81" of snow this winter, double the normal total. Blizzard conditions are expected for today: WIND...55 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 95 MPH.
Magnitude 7.3 - OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
2012 January 10 18:37:01 UTC


Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude
7.3
Date-Time
Tuesday, January 10, 2012 at 18:37:01 UTC
Wednesday, January 11, 2012 at 12:37:01 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
2.396 N, 93.175 E
Depth
29.1 km (18.1 miles)
Region
OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
Distances
423 km (262 miles) SW of Banda Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia
537 km (333 miles) SW of Lhokseumawe, Sumatra, Indonesia
951 km (590 miles) W of KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia
1789 km (1111 miles) WNW of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia
Location Uncertainty
horizontal /- 16.3 km (10.1 miles); depth /- 8.1 km (5.0 miles)
Parameters
NST= 75, Nph= 75, Dmin=504.3 km, Rmss=1.49 sec, Gp= 68,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0007ir5
WOnder what happened with the Intellicast radar..ued to be a 55 minute loop, now its a 6 HOUR loop Link
Quoting Neapolitan:
According to the town's official website, since November 1, Cordova, Alaska, has received 44.24" of rain and 176" of snow.

Anchorage has already received 81" of snow this winter, double the normal total. Blizzard conditions are expected for today: WIND...55 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 95 MPH.
95, that mixed with cold has got to be nasty.
That's some deep convection!



Oh and blog number 2012! :)
Quoting SPLbeater:
WOnder what happened with the Intellicast radar..ued to be a 55 minute loop, now its a 6 HOUR loop Link
Nashville and Huntsville are off line too.
Quoting Neapolitan:
According to the town's official website, since November 1, Cordova, Alaska, has received 44.24" of rain and 176" of snow.

Anchorage has already received 81" of snow this winter, double the normal total. Blizzard conditions are expected for today: WIND...55 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 95 MPH.


I had 60mph gusts all night last night....got 4 feet of snow blown up on my front door here in Homer. The police officers in town couldn't even go home last night...it's dead here.
Where is it snowing?

Alaska
west Texas
Kashmir -- Heavy snow in Kashmir closes highway, strands travellers

Other locations?
Quoting Levi32:


I had 60mph gusts all night last night....got 4 feet of snow blown up on my front door here in Homer. The police officers in town couldn't even go home last night...it's dead here.
And I thought hurricanes were bad..
Quoting yqt1001:
That's some deep convection!



Oh and blog number 2012! :)




its blog # 2011 if you did not look at the top right
Perhaps three tornadoes yesterday:

EVENT DATE...JANUARY 9, 2012 EVENT TYPE...EF-1 TORNADO ESTIMATED
PEAK WINDS (MPH)...95
INJURIES/FATALITIES...0 EVENT

EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME...29.6765/-95.6565 AT 905 AM
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME...29.6814/-95.6511 AT 910 AM
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES)...0.50
DAMAGE WIDTH (IN YARDS)...50 YARDS

AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH WINDS OF 95 MPH BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF BISSONNET AND GAINS ROAD IN FORT BEND COUNTY. SEVERAL HOMES WERE DAMAGED ALONG TURPHIN WAY WITH ONE HOME SUSTAINING SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE. THE TORNADO CROSSED NORTH OF BISSONNET AND DOWNED FENCES AND PRODUCED ROOF DAMAGE TO APPROXIMATELY 10 HOMES ALONG ROYAL WAY. THE DAMAGE PATH CONTINUED NORTH AND EAST WITH MINOR ROOF AND FENCE DAMAGE OBSERVED ALONG HAVENCREST AND VISTAMONT DRIVES. THE DAMAGE PATH ENDED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF ROCKY VALLEY ROAD AND HIGH HAVEN DRIVE.



EVENT DATE...JANUARY 9, 2012
EVENT TYPE...EF0 TORNADO
ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS (MPH)...65 TO 75
INJURIES/FATALITIES...0
EVENT START LOCATION AND TIME...29.4070/-95.2094 AT 1255 PM
EVENT END LOCATION AND TIME...29.4066/-95.0200 AT 1258 PM
DAMAGE PATH LENGTH (IN MILES)...0.56 ESTIMATED
DAMAGE WIDTH (IN YARDS)...50

A TORNADO WAS OBSERVED BY A POLICE OFFICER TO TOUCH DOWN IN THE MALL OF THE MAINLAND PARKING LOT. A SURVEY OF THE DAMAGE SHOWED A DEFINITE PATH OF MOSTLY MINOR DAMAGE...WITH TREE LIMBS KNOCKED OFF TREES AND SOME SHALLOW ROOTED TREES KNOCKED OVER. AT THE SEARS AUTO CENTER ON THE WEST END OF THE MALL...THE ROOF APPEARED PEELED BACK AT THE EDGE. REPORTS FROM TEXAS CITY AND MALL OFFICIALS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THE ROOF HAD COLLAPSED ALTHOUGH OFFICIALS INDICATED THE WEIGHT OF THE RAINFALL MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE COLLAPSE. THE EF-0 RATING IS BASED MOSTLY ON THE OBSERVED DAMAGE AROUND THE MALL AND THE PREMISE THAT THE RAIN LOAD WAS A PRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO THE ROOF COLLAPSE...BUT RATING COULD BE INCREASED TO EF-1 IF STRUCTURAL ENGINEERS DETERMINE WIND WAS THE PRIMARY CAUSE. ANOTHER WITNESS IN AN ADJACENT SUBDIVISION EAST OF THE MALL OBSERVED THE SWIRLING DEBRIS APPROACH. THE TORNADO THREW A NEIGHBORS SHED BACK TOWARD THE WEST BEFORE LIFTING.

A SEPARATE AREA OF STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED A FEW MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE MALL IN THE WESTWOOD CIRCLE PORTION OF LA MARQUE. IN THIS CASE ALL THE DAMAGE...WHICH INCLUDED PUSHED OVER FENCES AND THE UPROOTING OF A FEW SHALLOW ROOTED TREES APPEARED ORIENTED TOWARD THE EAST.


TORNADO SURVEY - ROSHARON/BONNEY, BRAZORIA COUNTY ... this survey is ongoing.
This may actually hold together by the time it reaches the Florida Peninsula..
Quoting Levi32:


I had 60mph gusts all night last night....got 4 feet of snow blown up on my front door here in Homer. The police officers in town couldn't even go home last night...it's dead here.

Share the snow Levi! >:|
Maybe a little snow for us..120 hour accum.
Reading through the blog post and trying to keep a totally open mind on it, I am compelled to wonder; are all the subject locations just suffering anomalies and maybe we can say next year, 2012 was a bit odd?
Maybe? Maybe not.This might just have something to do with it:- 391.57 parts per million (ppm). CO2 of course.
I think globally these anomalies may not be a one year wonder and they will more and more become the norm.
Off of the subject matter on this blog but Europe is still continuing much warmer than normal in lots of areas.
I remember this one vividly..We were in S.W.Florida getting whacked with hurricane force gusts before and after the squall line hit.
Quoting Minnemike:
quoting for good measure... cause yes folks, this is the 'violation' :P


What "violation" are you talking about? His #1 post isn't flagged with a violation. Admins can clear those, too...
Excerpt from Wiki..Gulf of Mexico

The United States Coast Guard dealt with "absolutely incredible, unbelievable" conditions within the Gulf of Mexico. The 200-ft. freighter Fantastico sank 70 miles offshore Ft. Myers, Florida during the storm. Seven of its crew died when a Coast Guard helicopter was forced back to base due to low fuel levels after rescuing three of their crew. The 147-ft. freighter Miss Beholding ran aground on a coral reef ten miles from Key West, Florida. Several other smaller vessels sank within the rough seas. In all, the Coast Guard rescued 235 people from over 100 boats across the Gulf of Mexico during the tempest.
Florida
The Derecho moves into the Florida coast during the overnight hours of March 13, 1993.

Besides producing record low barometric pressure across a swath of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states, and one of the nation's biggest snowstorms, the low produced a potent squall line ahead of its cold front. The squall line produced a serial derecho as it moved into Florida and Cuba shortly after midnight on March 13. Straight-line winds gusted above 100 mph (87 kn, 160 km/h) at many locations in Florida as the squall line moved through. The supercells in the derecho produced eleven tornadoes in the United States. One tornado killed three people when it struck a home which later collapsed, pinning the occupants under a fallen wall. A substantial tree fall was seen statewide from this system.

A substantial storm surge was also generated along the gulf coast from Apalachee Bay in the Florida panhandle to south of Tampa Bay. Due to the angle of the coast relative to the approaching squall, Taylor County along the eastern portion of Apalachee Bay and Hernando County north of Tampa were especially hard hit.

Storm surges in those areas reached up to 12 feet (3.7 m); higher than many hurricanes. With little advance warning of incoming severe conditions, some coastal residents were awakened in the early morning of March 13 by the waters of the Gulf of Mexico rushing into their homes.[16] More people died from drowning in this storm than during Hurricane Hugo and Hurricane Andrew combined.[3] Overall, the storm's surge, winds, and tornadoes damaged or destroyed 18,000 homes.[17] A total of 47 lives were lost in Florida due to this storm.
Magnitude 7.3 - OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA



Link
Yet the SPC ignores the fact a squall line is heading to Florida... No slight risk.. Come on now!
Quoting reedzone:
Yet the SPC ignores the fact a squall line is heading to Florida... No slight risk.. Come on now!

Surely you don't think a slight risk is warranted...?
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Don't be Greed Southeast Texas remember there are parts of Texas not receiving much rain at all like me. :) I hate this drought and I am not looking forward to Summer if I did not have kids and a grandson coming soon I would move. LOL



Awe c'mon Bo. You know I wish all of Texas could get some rain. If it makes everyone feel better my house is under some of that green/yellowish on the radar that DRM posted. :p I'm really hoping not to have to move again. My kids and grand kids moved away from me. Lol.
This is cool looking.

im going to review my abilities to find a severe t-storm with NWS Hotseat, be back in 20 mins or so :D

Wish me luck!
Quoting hydrus:
Excerpt from Wiki..Gulf of Mexico

The United States Coast Guard dealt with "absolutely incredible, unbelievable" conditions within the Gulf of Mexico. The 200-ft. freighter Fantastico sank 70 miles offshore Ft. Myers, Florida during the storm. Seven of its crew died when a Coast Guard helicopter was forced back to base due to low fuel levels after rescuing three of their crew. The 147-ft. freighter Miss Beholding ran aground on a coral reef ten miles from Key West, Florida. Several other smaller vessels sank within the rough seas. In all, the Coast Guard rescued 235 people from over 100 boats across the Gulf of Mexico during the tempest.
Florida
The Derecho moves into the Florida coast during the overnight hours of March 13, 1993.

Besides producing record low barometric pressure across a swath of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states, and one of the nation's biggest snowstorms, the low produced a potent squall line ahead of its cold front. The squall line produced a serial derecho as it moved into Florida and Cuba shortly after midnight on March 13. Straight-line winds gusted above 100 mph (87 kn, 160 km/h) at many locations in Florida as the squall line moved through. The supercells in the derecho produced eleven tornadoes in the United States. One tornado killed three people when it struck a home which later collapsed, pinning the occupants under a fallen wall. A substantial tree fall was seen statewide from this system.

A substantial storm surge was also generated along the gulf coast from Apalachee Bay in the Florida panhandle to south of Tampa Bay. Due to the angle of the coast relative to the approaching squall, Taylor County along the eastern portion of Apalachee Bay and Hernando County north of Tampa were especially hard hit.

Storm surges in those areas reached up to 12 feet (3.7 m); higher than many hurricanes. With little advance warning of incoming severe conditions, some coastal residents were awakened in the early morning of March 13 by the waters of the Gulf of Mexico rushing into their homes.[16] More people died from drowning in this storm than during Hurricane Hugo and Hurricane Andrew combined.[3] Overall, the storm's surge, winds, and tornadoes damaged or destroyed 18,000 homes.[17] A total of 47 lives were lost in Florida due to this storm.

I remember this one well; I lived in Broward at the time, and watching the non-stop horizon-to-horizon lightning moving across the peninsula--especially at that time of year--was pretty amazing. The next morning I found evidence of a small, weak tornado with an almost constant six-mile-long path, and reported it, along with photos and documentation, to the NWS office. But they weren't very receptive to my meddling, I don't think... ;)
Quoting NewEnglandExpress:
Magnitude 7.3 - OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA



Link


A DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT DOES NOT EXIST BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.

HOWEVER - THERE IS A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A LOCAL TSUNAMI
THAT COULD AFFECT COASTS LOCATED USUALLY NO MORE THAN A HUNDRED
KILOMETERS FROM THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES IN THE
REGION NEAR THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE MADE AWARE OF THIS
POSSIBILITY.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
FOR THIS EVENT. IN THE CASE OF CONFLICTING INFORMATION...THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE INFORMATION SHOULD BE USED FOR SAFETY.

doing the scenario "severe T-storms move across Atlanta area (Hard)
Quoting Neapolitan:

I remember this one well; I lived in Broward at the time, and watching the non-stop horizon-to-horizon lightning moving across the peninsula--especially at that time of year--was pretty amazing. The next morning I found evidence of a small, weak tornado with an almost constant six-mile-long path, and reported it, along with photos and documentation, to the NWS office. But they weren't very receptive to my meddling, I don't think... ;)
That was a long night.
nailed 3 Severe T-storm warnings so far :D score 260k
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is cool looking.



ok guys... i need a link to the precip type model that has all those blue and green pixils that includes nova scotia... need to know what im dealing with here on thurs night and fri... TIA
Introducing Tropical Storm Heidi.
3D image of Hurricane Charley's eye/eyewall. Notice how tight it was at landfall:


(Click to enlarge)
final score 291k, missed 5 severe T-storm events, not 1 tornado. :D

so...6/10 for an amatuer? lol
Quoting Dragod66:
ok guys... i need a link to the precip type model that has all those blue and green pixils that includes nova scotia... need to know what im dealing with here on thurs night and fri... TIA
Try this one, if no good, I will try to find another..Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
3D image of Hurricane Charley's eye/wall. Notice how tight it was at landfall:

Tight enough to rip the roof off ma house.
Link



Off the scale’ smog grounds China flights
Posted on January 10, 2012
January 10, 2012 – BEIJING – More than 150 flights to and from Beijing have been cancelled or delayed as a thick cloud of acrid smog shrouded the city, with U.S. figures saying the pollution was so bad it was off the scale. The national meteorological centre said the Chinese capital had been hit by thick fog that reduced visibility to as little as 200 meters in some parts of the city, while official data judged air quality to be “good.” But the U.S. embassy, which has its own pollution measuring system, said on its Twitter feed that the concentration of the smallest, most dangerous particles in the air was “beyond index” for most of the morning. The U.S. system measures particles in the air of 2.5 micrometers or less, known as PM2.5, considered the most dangerous for people’s health. Today’s reading on its air quality index, which rates anything over 150 as unhealthy, over 200 as very unhealthy and over 300 as hazardous, breached the upper limit of 500, at which it stops giving figures. Meanwhile, the Beijing Environmental Bureau, which currently bases its air quality information on particles of 10 micrometres or larger, known as PM10, said the air quality in the capital was “good.” A spokesman for the bureau would not comment when contacted by AFP. According to Beijing International Airport’s website, 155 flights were delayed or cancelled today. Air France and Lufthansa flights coming from Paris and Tokyo respectively were among those grounded. The frequent discrepancy between U.S. embassy readings and official data on pollution in Beijing has caused huge public anger as more and more residents worry about their health. –News.com
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
3D image of Hurricane Charley's eye/eyewall. Notice how tight it was at landfall:


(Click to enlarge)

You can still clearly see Charley's intense eyewall without 3D images. Very cool!
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
3:00 AM WST January 11 2012

=========================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category One (993 hPa) located at 17.7S 119.1E or 295 km north of Port Hedland and 410 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 11 knots towards the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
130 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving in a southerly direction towards the Pilbara coast, and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 km/h in coastal areas from Port Hedland to Wallal early on Wednesday morning, extending west to Dampier later on Wednesday. Heidi is currently a Category 1 system, and is unlikely to intensify further before reaching the coast.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tides will be higher than expected.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Dampier, including the towns of Port Hedland and Karratha.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 19.7S 118.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 20.9S 117.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 23.3S 114.9E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Cyclone Heidi has intensified into a category 1 system. A Current Intensity of 3.0m is based on the pattern and MET.

Gales are currently being observed at Bedout Island, thus the extension of the radius in that quadrant. Rowley Shoals reported a period of gales earlier and is now reporting just below gale SSW winds, consistent with the location of the center.

The system is moving south into a region of increased shear, suggesting further development is unlikely. However, the system should maintain current intensity until Wednesday afternoon when it moves into even higher shear and starts to weaken before crossing the Pilbara coast.

After the system weakens due to the shear, the low level circulation is likely move westwards while the mid level circulation tracks to the southeast. Models with a stronger system have a tendency to forecast a more southerly track, whereas models with weaker systems are taking Heidi further west.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 22:30 PM UTC..
Bow echo out in the Gulf moving toward W C FL. Could see a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch issued here by mid night or day break.

Very surprised SPC Folks have not issued atleast a slight risk area for FL.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Very surprised SPC Folks have not issued atleast a slight risk area for FL.

Doesn't need one.
Quoting sunlinepr:


kind of old animation dont ya think?
68. MTWX

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...SCNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102154Z - 102330Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN LA AND
SCNTRL MO THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006 MB SFC LOW OVER FAR NE LA WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS SE LA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED FROM NRN MS EWD ACROSS NRN AL. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SFC
LOW...THE WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK INSTABILITY WITH
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG ACROSS
MUCH OF MS. IN SPITE OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY...A STRONGLY SHEARED
WIND PROFILE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60 TO 70 KT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. COLD TEMPS ALOFT /500 MB
TEMPS OF -14C TO -16C/ AND MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR BUT ANY THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY
ISOLATED MAINLY DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY.
Quoting hydrus:
Try this one, if no good, I will try to find another..Link


Thanks but i wasnt looking for radar i was looking for a forcast model that people post on here frequently that shows snow, rain, mixed precip, and freezing rain

like this but it includes Nova scotia... http://coolwx.com/ptype/
Strong storms are forming to the west of Jackson. They should start to become severe soon.
71. MTWX
Quoting Ameister12:
Strong storms are forming the the west of Jackson. The should start to become severe soon.

Lining up pretty quickly too! Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Doesn't need one.


Not yet but this squall line is charging this way. Looks like the worst wx from this system so far will be over the FL Penisula as that is one nasty squall line out there.

74. MTWX
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Not yet but this squall line is charging this way. Looks like the worst wx from this system so far will be over the FL Penisula as that is one nasty squall line out there.


don't know about that... The cells just SW of Jackson have exploded over the last 20 minutes or so! This is going to be interesting on both fronts
75. MTWX
Look Out Yazoo!! That northern cell has your name written all over it!! Not severe yet, but looks mighty impressive!Link
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Not yet but this squall line is charging this way. Looks like the worst wx from this system so far will be over the FL Penisula as that is one nasty squall line out there.

Sqall line looking a bit stronger I believe..
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Not yet but this squall line is charging this way. Looks like the worst wx from this system so far will be over the FL Penisula as that is one nasty squall line out there.



That squall line over the Gulf will weaken into the overnight - it will outrun its dynamics and fall apart as it encounters a much more stable air mass. Best chance for severe will be over southern Miss. and Ala. Last meso disco covers this well. I think SPC still 50/50 on a tornado watch, but it will not be a severe thunderstorm watch.
Some rotation in some of these cells!

got 2 go to funeral :( be back soon
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
6:00 AM WST January 11 2012
=========================

At 5:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category One (988 hPa) located at 18.1S 119.0E or 250 km north of Port Hedland and 370 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 40-45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 10 knots towards the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
130 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving in a southerly direction towards the Pilbara coast, and is expected to produce gales with gusts to 100 km/h in coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Port Hedland this morning, extending west during the day, possibly as far as Mardie. Gusts could increase to 120 km/h close to the center as it crosses the coast.

Heidi is currently a Category 1 system and should maintain intensity until it reaches the coast, after which it should weaken.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tides between Pardoo and Whim Creek are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with very rough seas and flooding of low-lying coastal areas. Tides elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and Mardie, including the communities of Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Pt Samson, Karratha, Dampier and Mardie need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Sandfire to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier, including the towns of Port Hedland and Karratha.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..
There are now 345 Day's until the Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Evening.
Quoting SPLbeater:
got 2 go to funeral :( be back soon


with life comes death its all part of the grand cycle
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 345 Day's until the Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Evening.
its getting closer now
Quoting hcubed:


What "violation" are you talking about? His #1 post isn't flagged with a violation. Admins can clear those, too...
yep, it was #1... i didn't know those flagged posts could be cleared!! it did still say 'violation of community standards' when the comment was blocked, hence my verbiage. nice to see something so innocuous has been restored :)
actually its all ready begun
This is a video of the storm that hit Scandinavia on 12/26. They have been getting hurricane force winds in a number of storms. A lot of damage there. Very unusual. If you want to know what they are saying, I will translate for you.

1. Where is Jim Cantore?
2. Let's hunker down
3. Hope for the best and expect the worst.
4. Do you see an eye?





weakening as evening wears on
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


weakening as evening wears on


It still looks potent, though.

Quoting SPLbeater:
got 2 go to funeral :( be back soon

Sorry for your loss..:-(
Best wishes to you and your family.
Quoting Grothar:

Heavy rainfall with this line, maybe some embedded thunder/lightning when it rolls ashore.

As thought, a slight risk is definitely not warranted.
Tracks of storms from 1975 to 1999.. Anyone remember this one? And bad ole Andrew..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Heavy rainfall with this line, maybe some embedded thunder/lightning when it rolls ashore.

As thought, a slight risk is definitely not warranted.


Thanks, C. I am going to miss it anyway. We haven't had one of those in a long time. Wonder if canes is getting his hurricane supplies out? :)
Great stuff, Hydrus! Can you dig up an image of Frederic (1979)? That was the worst storm I've ever been in, and one that I'm certain would now rate a weak Cat 4 if it were to be closely re-examined. Only damage I've ever seen that was comparable was Hugo's.

On a separate note, most of my family's still in Mobile Bay area --- how are they looking for severe weather tonight?

G'night, All!
Arctic cold air coming here tomorrow..well it's actually normal temperatures, but we haven't seen much below 0C this January! Says an abnormal temperature trend..the low tomorrow will be at 3pm, so I hope that it gets above 0C tomorrow so all the ice melts then rapidly freezes so I get a flash freeze day (no school!) out of this! :D
Hurricane Andrew of 1992 is the only storm I know who's name rhymes with the year it formed in.If Lee would've formed in 1993 then that would be the other storm.However it didn't.
Quoting bappit:
Perhaps three tornadoes yesterday:

EVENT DATE...JANUARY 9, 2012 br>
TORNADO SURVEY - ROSHARON/BONNEY, BRAZORIA COUNTY ... this survey is ongoing.

I was there right after the Bonney one. Two semis blown onto their sides @ about 11:41, according to the news. I drove through there about 12, and the police had not yet arrived. A school bus driver with yellow vest and flashlight was signalling cars to drive around the nose of one that was sticking out into the right lane. It was definitely hard to see with the driving rain.
Alright people. Anyone take a look at the 18z GFS model run around 360 hours? If my eyes aren't kidding me, it's showing a tropical system pushing into the mid-Atlantic. No joke. I give up on this weather.

Link
Quoting weatherman566:
Alright people. Anyone take a look at the 18z GFS model run around 360 hours? If my eyes aren't kidding me, it's showing a tropical system pushing into the mid-Atlantic. No joke. I give up on this weather.

Link
My friend I've already given up.I wish I was in Alaska right about now....They have 15 feet 15 FEET OF SNOW.My little baby snow yesterday was a few flakes compared to what they had.
Quoting Articuno:

Sorry for your loss..:-(
Best wishes to you and your family.


wasnt my loss, it was a church member. lost his mother, she was 93 and had medical problems. but she is with the Lord now, so no more pain for her!
Quoting lhwhelk:

A school bus driver with yellow vest and flashlight was signalling cars to drive around the nose of one that was sticking out into the right lane. It was definitely hard to see with the driving rain.

Yep, the rain was insane. Five inches drenches. All in two hours or so.
GFS forecasting some possible snow for me at hours 140-147!

^
scratch that. changed dramatically now lol. STUPID RAIN
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hurricane Andrew of 1992 is the only storm I know who's name rhymes with the year it formed in.If Lee would've formed in 1993 then that would be the other storm.However it didn't.
You rollin em a little fat tonight 115.?
There are 141 days left until June 1rst!
Quoting SPLbeater:


wasnt my loss, it was a church member. lost his mother, she was 93 and had medical problems. but she is with the Lord now, so no more pain for her!
Tell u wat, 93 is a good long life for a human..We just lost a church member who was 99. She would have been 100 in August. Lived in a little wooden house about 250 yards behind ours. The lady that lives in front of us is 92. They live to a ripe old age around here..:)
Interesting, this frontal system has been very poorly forecasted convective wise by the models so far, little to no convection where the heaviest activity was originally expected (gulf coastal areas) and the squall line and heavy convection is way south into the gulf.

However, do not be deceived, that doesn't mean Central Florida will have the highest severe threat. Remember severe weather during the summer time in Florida comes from the shear power of the thunderstorms cells themselves because they don't have dynamic support whatsoever. However to get severe this time of year in Florida it takes significant dynamic support, as is the case throughout the year across many areas in the U.S. Strong dynamics associated with frontal systems is the main cause of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Otherwise random scattering of pulse severe storms occur in Florida during the wet season but because they don't have strong dynamical support the severe weather they produce tends to be more short lived and not as wide spread because down drafts quickly cut off updraft support when a storm becomes severe in that setup.




To sum things up, although that squall line looks menacing, all models show dynamics lifting north and only an outside chance of severe in Central Florida and only isolated thunder. As of now though the NWS said upper divergence should be strong enough to support a solid chance at heavy rain across Central Florida, especially coastal areas.

Models can have a hard time predicting convective trends and patterns, however global models perform excellent with forecasting dynamic support and other large scale factors.


It is common for frontal systems to lose dynamic support as they head into Florida which decreases the severe threat dramatically, we do sometimes get more dynamic systems that bring wide spread tornado events but they aren't as frequent as in the southern plains and the lower Mississippi valley.



I googled for a story that linked "rolling 'em fat" and certain metabolites found in a oil rich diet. Disappointed. Only found links for cannabis cooking oil and "Jesus was a stoner". Not sure what any of this has to do with the weather.
Anyways if your hoping for a big severe event in Florida don't get your hopes up. If the squall line remains very strong its possible for an isolated severe cell or 2 but mainly heavy rain, gusty winds up to 40 mph and occasional lighting is all that should in most cells.
Quoting bappit:
I googled for a story that linked "rolling 'em fat" and certain metabolites found in a oil rich diet. Disappointed. Only found links for cannabis cooking oil and "Jesus was a stoner". Not sure what any of this has to do with the weather.


LOL gotta love the randomness of some contents in search engines.
So TC 06S is now named..Tropical Cyclone Heidi!? LOL nice name
Quoting bappit:
I googled for a story that linked "rolling 'em fat" and certain metabolites found in a oil rich diet. Disappointed. Only found links for cannabis cooking oil and "Jesus was a stoner". Not sure what any of this has to do with the weather.
Quoting bappit:
I googled for a story that linked "rolling 'em fat" and certain metabolites found in a oil rich diet. Disappointed. Only found links for cannabis cooking oil and "Jesus was a stoner". Not sure what any of this has to do with the weather.
.Jesus?..I am sure he saw a hooka pipe or two during his tenure here on Earth. I would doubt he partook in the sacrament tho............Hurricane Frederick did major damage to Western Panhandle, Alabama and lesser damage in Mississippi..The Dauphin Island Bridge was destroyed by Hurricane Frederic, making it only reachable by boat.
Quoting hydrus:
You rollin em a little fat tonight 115.?
Not to sure what that means right now XD.But i've notice the Andrew year thing for a while and it's kinda like a riddle Hurricane andrew of 1992!!
Excerp Wiki...Storm surge damage was reported along 80 miles of coastline from Mississippi to Florida, with tides 8 to 12 feet (2.4-3.7 m) above the normal level being observed. Near-total property damage occurred along the Alabama coastline between Fort Morgan and Gulf Shores, the latter seeing 80% of its buildings completely destroyed. The causeway linking Dauphin Island to the mainland was swept away in many areas.
Rainfall from Frederic in the United States.

Wind damage was also severe, especially across southern Alabama. Hurricane-force gusts were felt as far inland as Choctaw County. Structural failure was widespread in the immediate landfall area with industrial, residential and governmental buildings as well as hospitals suffering heavy damage. Nearly 90% of the Mobile area lost electricity, and the historic City Hall experienced heavy roof damage. Many small beach houses were completely destroyed by high winds before the storm surge could add any effects.

Tree damage with broken limbs was extensive, leaving thousands of tall pine trees all tilted, leaning in the direction the wind had come.
The Dauphin Island Bridge was destroyed by Hurricane Frederic, making it only reachable by boat.

Frederic also dumped heavy rainfall across much of the eastern United States: 8 to 12 inches (.3 m) of rain fell from Pascagoula to Mobile, and 2-4 inches fell along the hurricane's path as far as New England. Over a dozen tornadoes were also reported in Frederic's wake. However, these had minimal impact.

Five deaths were directly attributed to Frederic in the United States, four of which occurred inland: a person swept from a boat near Pensacola was the only casualty along the coast.
Quoting PlazaRed:
Reading through the blog post and trying to keep a totally open mind on it, I am compelled to wonder; are all the subject locations just suffering anomalies and maybe we can say next year, 2012 was a bit odd?
Maybe? Maybe not.This might just have something to do with it:- 391.57 parts per million (ppm). CO2 of course.
I think globally these anomalies may not be a one year wonder and they will more and more become the norm.
Off of the subject matter on this blog but Europe is still continuing much warmer than normal in lots of areas.


The following is the lead paragraph in "Perceptions of Climate Change: The New Climate Dice" by James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Reury of the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies at Columbia University

""Climate dice", describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons relative to climatology, have become progressively "loaded" in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (%u03C3) warmer than climatology. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface in the period of climatology, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. We conclude that extreme heat waves, such as that in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010, were "caused" by global warming, because their likelihood was negligible prior to the recent rapid global warming. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing climate change."

Though he's mainly talking about the recent droughts I think he basically supports your ideas. The paper is well worth reading.

Link



What the hell?????.When I blogged it didn't show my picture.So when I had went to my photos to see what the problem was it said it wasn't "approprite" for the site??.All it shows is a happy cartoon character thats pink.How is that "affecting" anybody please tell me?.I'm going to the admin with this.
Quoting hydrus:
.Jesus?..I am sure he saw a hooka pipe or two during his tenure here on Earth. I would doubt he partook in the sacrament tho............Hurricane Frederick did major damage to Western Panhandle, Alabama and lesser damage in Mississippi..The Dauphin Island Bridge was destroyed by Hurricane Frederic, making it only reachable by boat.



Well there isn't any evidence that Jesus ever smoked, however he did drink wine with people, just not drunk. Some self righteous folk called him a sinner, and some today don't want to admit he drank wine and said it was grape juice hahaha gotta love it.



Quoting washingtonian115:
What the hell?????.When I blogged it didn't show my picture.So when I had went to my photos to see what the problem was it said it wasn't "approprite" for the site??.All it shows is a happy cartoon character thats pink.How is that "affecting" anybody please tell me?.I'm going to the admin with this.


Yeah seriously how could that be offensive? I have seen far more offensive pictures from fake "weather girl" profiles that have posted in here lol.

Sounds like a hate crime case to me :) lol
Quoting Jedkins01:



Well there isn't any evidence that Jesus ever smoked, however he did drink wine with people, just not drunk. Some self righteous folk called him a sinner, and some today don't want to admit he drank wine and said it was grape juice hahaha gotta love it.



He is the son of God..He can probably drink whatever He wants..I would not be first in line to give him a ration of b.s. over it either.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah seriously how could that be offensive? I have seen far more offensive pictures from fake "weather girl" profiles that have posted in here lol.

Sounds like a hate crime case to me :) lol
It is.The Admin are hating on my happy go lucky avatars,and may soon ban me if I continue to upload them.I've sent them an e-mail.If I had uploaded a picture of a hurricane destroying the coastline then that might have been offensive to some people.
Quoting SPLbeater:


i go by JTWC for advisories, and myself for TWO's. if the JTWC dont have it out, wunderground wont either :D

Well, It is in Australian waters so I go by the Australian Bureau Of Meteorology. Don't forget we have a different classification down here.




Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #7
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
9:00 AM WST January 11 2012
=========================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category One (990 hPa) located at 18.4S 119.1E or 220 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 350 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots towards the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is moving in a southerly direction towards the Pilbara coast, and could produce gusts to 100 km/h in coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Port Hedland late this morning, extending west during the day, possibly as far as Mardie. Gusts could increase to 130 km/h close to the center as it crosses the coast overnight.

Heidi is currently a Category 1 system, and may intensify to a Category 2 system just before landfall.

The strongest winds and heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals of 100-250mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Tides between Wallal and Whim Creek are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark overnight with very rough seas and flooding of low-lying coastal areas. Tides elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Sandfire to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 19.7S 118.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 20.7S 118.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 22.7S 115.9E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 24.6S 114.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Cyclone Heidi, category 1, was located by Port Hedland radar and moving steadily southwards towards the coast. Intensity is based on Dvorak CI of 3.0 using MET, although recent DT estimates are at 2.5 from curved band pattern. Surface observations at Rowley Shoals overnight confirmed TC intensity having gale force winds in the northwest sector and a pressure of 993hPa, while Bedout Island to the southeast also is reporting gales.

Some intensification to category 2 intensity is possible prior to landfall overnight. Weakening should be rapid after landfall aided by increasing wind shear and then a more southwest track overland is likely. Model guidance has underestimated the intensity of the system and has tended to have a more westerly track than is predicted.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 4:30 AM UTC..
Hi Guys,
Danny Trainor forecasts 80% chance of rain in Central Florida for Wednesday (so does NWS).


Right now the front in the GOM looking pretty convincing.
LinkIRLoop
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Guys,
Danny Trainor forecasts 80% chance of rain in Central Florida for Wednesday.




Loop current helping with convection?
Hi Brian, dunno. But I'm not driving anywhere tomorrow. Will stay home and work at the computer.
goodnight!
Hope you get a good soaking rain without severe weather Chicklit.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Well, It is in Australian waters so I go by the Australian Bureau Of Meteorology. Don't forget we have a different classification down here.




It looks like Port Hedland wind be on the strong side. Hope they battened down those hatches. Seems like they get hit quite often there.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Loop current helping with convection?
I do not think so, just not warm enough.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hurricane Andrew of 1992 is the only storm I know who's name rhymes with the year it formed in.If Lee would've formed in 1993 then that would be the other storm.However it didn't.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hurricane Andrew of 1992 is the only storm I know who's name rhymes with the year it formed in.If Lee would've formed in 1993 then that would be the other storm.However it didn't.

How so can you explain it to me please
Quoting hydrus:
I do not think so, just not warm enough.


The shelf waters are cooler though. The squall line may weaken as it approaches the FL coast.
Quoting allancalderini:

How so can you explain it to me please
Because the two and drew rhyme.And the infamous cat 5 monster Andrew everyone is talkIng about formed in 92.so yeah.......Andrew of 92.
The next chance for a storm rhyming with its year is Josephine in 2014.
I have a feeling hurricane season will start off with a May tropical cyclone this year. This year's SST's look very similar to 2008, which started off the season on May 31 (UTC).

Sea Surface Temperatures on January 9, 2012:



Sea Surface Temperatures on January 9, 2011:



Sea Surface Temperatures on January 9, 2008:


Quoting Jedkins01:



Well there isn't any evidence that Jesus ever smoked, however he did drink wine with people, just not drunk. Some self righteous folk called him a sinner, and some today don't want to admit he drank wine and said it was grape juice hahaha gotta love it.



It turned to water as it hit his lips and/or he just neutralized the alcohol instantly so that it would still taste good instead of being water.
Months later, NC counties get disaster aid from the feds

The losses recognized Tuesday were from tornadoes that raked across North Carolina in April and the flooding and wind damage done by Hurricane Irene in September. Some counties qualified for aid from both events.

In each case, residents or business owners can qualify for two programs that offer financial assistance in replacing damaged equipment or property and paying production costs, debt and living expenses.


There is 35 eligible counties..more here.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The next chance for a storm rhyming with its year is Josephine in 2014.
Woot woot I know what you mean!!.Greetings from the D.C area.Your neighborhood city some 40 miles to your south.
This came out just the other day..latest from JPL on sea level & climate change. Some field people perspective.

Quoting Skyepony:
Months later, NC counties get disaster aid from the feds

The losses recognized Tuesday were from tornadoes that raked across North Carolina in April and the flooding and wind damage done by Hurricane Irene in September. Some counties qualified for aid from both events.

In each case, residents or business owners can qualify for two programs that offer financial assistance in replacing damaged equipment or property and paying production costs, debt and living expenses.


There is 35 eligible counties..more here.

And I'm one of those counties...We got both events.
Quoting washingtonian115:
What the hell?????.When I blogged it didn't show my picture.So when I had went to my photos to see what the problem was it said it wasn't "approprite" for the site??.All it shows is a happy cartoon character thats pink.How is that "affecting" anybody please tell me?.I'm going to the admin with this.


i once uploaded a google image (my previous avatar, the Fi subwoofer) it had 4 or 5 copyright violations. but hey, i dont care lol
Quoting AussieStorm:

Well, It is in Australian waters so I go by the Australian Bureau Of Meteorology. Don't forget we have a different classification down here.






oh yeah your in australia...right? lol. yeah i got a site saved in my favorites so i know how to classify storms there in relation to the Atlantic. on my website, i use the Saffire-Simpson for everything lol
Quoting MrBoujangles:
It turned to water as it hit his lips and/or he just neutralized the alcohol instantly so that it would still taste good instead of being water.


there is 2 types of wine. the one kind that everybody knows, that contains alcohol. a SECOND kind they had then and still do now, is a wine that DOES NOT contain alcohol and was meant for a drinking beverage at meals. for regular people, not drunks.

Jesus didnt sin. only perfect being

btw, my aunt has some regular wine(non-alcohol) that she drinks every now and then :D
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I have a feeling hurricane season will start off with a May tropical cyclone this year. This year's SST's look very similar to 2008, which started off the season on May 31 (UTC).

Sea Surface Temperatures on January 9, 2012:



Sea Surface Temperatures on January 9, 2011:



Sea Surface Temperatures on January 9, 2008:


Possibly. I doubt it though just because of how statistically unlikely it is.
Quoting hydrus:
It looks like Port Hedland wind be on the strong side. Hope they battened down those hatches. Seems like they get hit quite often there.


Port closes as Cyclone Heidi threatens WA coast

THE Port Hedland Port Authority has closed down in preparation for a category 1 cyclone off the West Australian Pilbara coast, which is expected to intensify to a category 2 before it hits land.

A cyclone warning has been issued for coastal areas from Sandfire to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier.

The weather bureau says Tropical Cyclone Heidi is estimated to be 220km north, northeast of Port Hedland and moving south at 15km/h towards the coast.

It is moving in a southerly direction towards the Pilbara coast, and could produce gusts to 100km/h in coastal areas, extending west during today.

Gusts could increase to 130km/h close to the centre as it crosses the coast overnight, the bureau says.

Port Hedland Port Authority spokesman Steed Farrell said the port had activated its cyclone contingency plan at 4pm (WST) on Tuesday in preparation for the wild weather.
"We cleared inbound traffic into the port and cleared the port of vessels that needed to get out," he said.

Mr Farrell said although a yellow alert had not been issued, the port authority believed it was "imminent" and so it took the necessary measures.

"There was enough risk to activate the plan and all non-essential staff will go home," he said.

Mr Farrell said the port would wait for word from the weather bureau before resuming operations.

The weather bureau says little to no rainfall has been reported in the area during the past 24 hours, but very heavy rainfall is expected later on Wednesday and overnight in the river catchments between Port Hedland and Karratha.

Up to 250mm of rain is possible across central and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast, the bureau says.

Tides between Wallal and Whim Creek are likely to rise above the normal high-tide mark with very rough seas and flooding of low-lying coastal areas.

Tides elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.

A blue alert has been issued for the area and people have been told to prepare for cyclonic weather by organising emergency supplies including a first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.











The center of TC Heidi is approx 175km(108miles) from Port Headland
Quoting hydrus:
I do not think so, just not warm enough.
Loop current is definitely helping. Aside from solar heating, the loop current is the other major source of heat for the Gulf of Mexico. It brings the warmer Caribbean water northward into the area, keeping it warmer than it would be otherwise.
Quoting SPLbeater:


there is 2 types of wine. the one kind that everybody knows, that contains alcohol. a SECOND kind they had then and still do now, is a wine that DOES NOT contain alcohol and was meant for a drinking beverage at meals. for regular people, not drunks.

Jesus didnt sin. only perfect being

btw, my aunt has some regular wine(non-alcohol) that she drinks every now and then :D
We have communion with grapejuice...There are some people at our church that never have had a drink with alcohol in it..They dont drink coffee either...
Quoting AussieStorm:


Port closes as Cyclone Heidi threatens WA coast

THE Port Hedland Port Authority has closed down in preparation for a category 1 cyclone off the West Australian Pilbara coast, which is expected to intensify to a category 2 before it hits land.

A cyclone warning has been issued for coastal areas from Sandfire to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier.

The weather bureau says Tropical Cyclone Heidi is estimated to be 220km north, northeast of Port Hedland and moving south at 15km/h towards the coast.

It is moving in a southerly direction towards the Pilbara coast, and could produce gusts to 100km/h in coastal areas, extending west during today.

Gusts could increase to 130km/h close to the centre as it crosses the coast overnight, the bureau says.

Port Hedland Port Authority spokesman Steed Farrell said the port had activated its cyclone contingency plan at 4pm (WST) on Tuesday in preparation for the wild weather.
"We cleared inbound traffic into the port and cleared the port of vessels that needed to get out," he said.

Mr Farrell said although a yellow alert had not been issued, the port authority believed it was "imminent" and so it took the necessary measures.

"There was enough risk to activate the plan and all non-essential staff will go home," he said.

Mr Farrell said the port would wait for word from the weather bureau before resuming operations.

The weather bureau says little to no rainfall has been reported in the area during the past 24 hours, but very heavy rainfall is expected later on Wednesday and overnight in the river catchments between Port Hedland and Karratha.

Up to 250mm of rain is possible across central and eastern Pilbara with isolated heavier falls near the coast, the bureau says.

Tides between Wallal and Whim Creek are likely to rise above the normal high-tide mark with very rough seas and flooding of low-lying coastal areas.

Tides elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.

A blue alert has been issued for the area and people have been told to prepare for cyclonic weather by organising emergency supplies including a first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.









The center of TC Heidi is approx 175km(108miles) from Port Headland
Great post Aussie. Thank you for taking the time to do it..:)
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


The shelf waters are cooler though. The squall line may weaken as it approaches the FL coast.
My thoughts exactly.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Loop current is definitely helping. Aside from solar heating, the loop current is the other major source of heat for the Gulf of Mexico. It brings the warmer Caribbean water northward into the area, keeping it warmer than it would be otherwise.
I didnt know that, thanx for letting me know Tom
Quoting hydrus:
I didnt know that, thanx for letting me know Tom
I know what you meant though, from that animation you can only see where the loop current moving around the south central gulf, but the reality is there are other hundreds of smaller gyres which spin off of the loop current distributing its heat throughout the gulf. Put it this way, if that was a lake, cutoff from the Caribbean, it would certainly be cooler.
Hmm, my RI script really likes Heidi.

As of Jan 11th 2012 at 0Z, Heidi has a high chance (75%) of rapidly intensifying in the next 24 hours.

Now, if it knew that Heidi was going to make landfall soon I'm sure it wouldn't be as high, but there you go. First ultimate test of the RI script. Probably should limit the test to 24 hours before landfall.
Quoting hydrus:
Great post Aussie. Thank you for taking the time to do it..:)


If you go to http://rain-alarm.com/
you get a much nicer view. I actually prefer to use it than the BOM radars. You can really see the amount of moisture TC Heidi is pulling in to continue her intensification process. We could see a High Cat 2 Cyclone at landfall about 100kms west of Port Headland, which would mean Port Headland would be get most of this stream field.
Quoting AussieStorm:


If you go to http://rain-alarm.com/
you get a much nicer view. I actually prefer to use it than the BOM radars.
Excellent, I can see my house..:)
Y'all been reading the Tampa Bay forecast discussion?

.UPDATE...
BAND OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF COOL FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES A DECENT LINE OF STORMS AT THIS TIME...BUT CONVECTION IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY THE LOOP CURRENT. AS THIS BAND APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE THE STORMS DIMINISH SOME THANKS TO THE COOLER SHELF WATERS...BUT STILL EXPECT A MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT FOR OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FROM ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT IF WE CAN GET SOME OF THE STORMS TO MAKE IT ON LAND THEN SOME SPOTS COULD SEE MORE THAN AN INCH. SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK MINIMAL...BUT ONCE AGAIN IF WE CAN GET THE STORMS TO MAKE IT CLOSE TO THE COAST AND ONSHORE THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SEEING A BRIEF WATERSPOUT/TORNADO AS LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR 400 OVER LEVY COUNTY TO AROUND 250 IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WITH LESSER VALUES FURTHER SOUTH. LIMITING FACTORS CONTINUE TO BE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AND STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS WHICH MODELS INDICATE WILL REMAIN BELOW 50 KNOTS UP THROUGH 700 MB. ALSO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR IS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM. NO MATTER WHAT THOUGH WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW STRONG WINDS GUSTS WITH ANY CONVECTION.
Quoting yqt1001:
Hmm, my RI script really likes Heidi.

As of Jan 11th 2012 at 0Z, Heidi has a high chance (75%) of rapidly intensifying in the next 24 hours.

Now, if it knew that Heidi was going to make landfall soon I'm sure it wouldn't be as high, but there you go. First ultimate test of the RI script.


Since TC Heidi is typically compact for WA cyclones, I wouldn't be surprised if she did RI.
From Bappit #156

BUT CONVECTION IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY THE LOOP CURRENT. AS THIS BAND APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE THE STORMS DIMINISH SOME THANKS TO THE COOLER SHELF WATERS

Whut I sayd ;) #132

19 minutes before the TBW discussion came out
Quoting AussieStorm:


Since TC Heidi is typically compact for WA cyclones, I wouldn't be surprised if she did RI.


If it wasn't about to make landfall soon, I'd say that Heidi would have RI in the future, as it has already shrunken considerably and convection has weakened briefly, which unless due to dry air (not sure) or land, can be an indication of RI. Probably too late now though. Heidi sure is small compared to many other SHem storms!
Quoting yqt1001:
Hmm, my RI script really likes Heidi.

As of Jan 11th 2012 at 0Z, Heidi has a high chance (75%) of rapidly intensifying in the next 24 hours.

Now, if it knew that Heidi was going to make landfall soon I'm sure it wouldn't be as high, but there you go. First ultimate test of the RI script. Probably should limit the test to 24 hours before landfall.
my finals end tomorrow, so hopefully ill have more time to mess around with your RI calculator.

One other modifications I would suggest is a feature for time until landfall and distance from land. For determining time until landfall I'd use the official forecast of which ever agency resides over the basin the storm set up on maybe 6 or 12 jt intervals. Distance from land could also be like 50 mile intervals so you don't need an exact position.

Also, I see there is an option for month of the year...does that have any influence in the calculation?...it technically shouldn't because each basin has different peaks and dips in activity, the northern Indian ocean for example has two peaks, and basins in the southern hemisphere would be operating on opposite months (ie peak activity in February and March as opposed to August and September like in the northern hemisphere).
Quoting TomTaylor:
my finals end tomorrow, so hopefully ill have more time to mess around with got RI calculator.

One other modifications I would suggest is a feature for time until landfall and distance from land. For determining time until landfall I'd use the official forecast of which ever agency resides over the basin the storm set up on maybe 6 or 12 jt intervals. Distance from land could also be like 50 mile intervals so you don't need an exact position.

Also, I see there is an option for month of the year...does that have any influence in the calculation?...it technically shouldn't because each basin has different peaks and dips in activity, the northern Indian ocean for example has two peaks, and basins in the southern hemisphere would be operating on opposite months (ie peak activity in February and March as opposed to August and September like in the northern hemisphere).


I was going to change a lot this weekend on the script, Heidi will likely be the last storm to actually have the current script used on. I'll add those features as well. And yeah, depending on the month and the basin there is different peaks for chance, no really large negatives for off-season months as Kenneth showed us very clearly that RI can happen after the season ends (EPac generally ends in mid-November).
Some flooding pics from yesterday morning in Houston.

Had over six inches in Sugarland. It came down in a hurry, too.

Edit: well, never mind. The link is broken now.
163. wxmod
First you get a drought, then you get a flood. Could this have anything to do with it? (CA jet trails today)

Less rain, but more when it does ... think I read that somewhere.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
From Bappit #156

BUT CONVECTION IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY THE LOOP CURRENT. AS THIS BAND APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE THE STORMS DIMINISH SOME THANKS TO THE COOLER SHELF WATERS

Whut I sayd ;) #132

19 minutes before the TBW discussion came out


should feel pretty good now you...i remember 4 occasions in 2011 i predicted a severe T-storm watch/warning AND notified my family of the danger 15 minutes before NWS or the stupid media said anything bout it. i felt gooooood then lol(i am so thankful for NWS Hotseat now, i can get better)
Quoting yqt1001:


I was going to change a lot this weekend on the script, Heidi will likely be the last storm to actually have the current script used on. I'll add those features as well. And yeah, depending on the month and the basin there is different peaks for chance, no really large negatives for off-season months as Kenneth showed us very clearly that RI can happen after the season ends (EPac generally ends in mid-November).
I just felt like it was kind of redundant including the month. The reason we see changes in activity during different months is due to changes in all the other variables you already have covered...like SSTs, TCHP, wind shear, upper level anticyclone, etc, those characteristics all change with the seasons.

I suppose the effect is really only negligible though, so its not really a big deal and it could help cover for things like vertical instability which aren't currently covered.
what the heck? NWS Hotseat isnt in my recommended links?

.........brb......
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY ONE (07U)
12:00 PM WST January 11 2012
=========================

At 11:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category One (990 hPa) located at 18.7S 119.1E or 185 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 325 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Heidi is intensifying as it continues its southward track towards the Pilbara coast. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are likely to develop in coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Whim Creek including Port Hedland this afternoon. Destructive winds with gusts to 155 km/h are possible overnight close to the cyclone center between Whim Creek and Pardoo. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h may extend west to Dampier and possibly as far as Mardie overnight if the cyclone takes a more southwest track, and in the adjacent parts of the central Pilbara.

The heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals of 100-250 mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Residents in and near Port Hedland and east to Wallal are specifically warned of the potential of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center crosses the coast overnight. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with dangerous flooding of low-lying areas. Tides elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.

YELLOW ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and Whim Creek, including the communities of Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland, and Whim Creek need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Whim Creek and Mardie, including the communities of Roebourne, Pt Samson, Karratha, Dampier and Mardie need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organize an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Mainichi: Massive dead creature floating in Tokyo Bay - Near where radioactive ash is dumped (PHOTO)
Mainichi Shimbun via EX-SKF, Jan. 10, 2012:

Japan Coast Guard isn’t sure what it is but it may be a whale Floating near the Aomi Container Wharf in Koto-ku


Right across from the landfill where the Tokyo Metropolitan government has been dumping the radioactive ashes (EX-SKF: “No correlation expressed or implied”)
Some Japanese are getting nervous, not because of radiation but because the March 11, 2011 earthquake was preceded by beaching of whales

Quoting hydrus:
He is the son of God..He can probably drink whatever He wants..I would not be first in line to give him a ration of b.s. over it either.


You are correct haha.

Some people seem to forget that following Jesus is not about puffing out your chest about "I don't do this and I don't do that because I'm more righteous than you"

Its about what can we do to love our brother, and the most challenging of all, even our enemies.


I know this is a weather blog and not a religious one, but when I see ridiculous arguments and conflict over religion it makes me very sad, and I feel like I must put in some input, if you get what I mean.
Cloudsat caught Chanda.
Oily disaster puts pressure on abbott's booby

But the Australian Maritime Safety Authority's Toby Stone says there were only minor deficiencies and they were corrected before the ship sailed.

"The bad news is that there could be no containment operation because of the very severe swell and weather conditions," he said.

"There's a positive side to that - the bad weather has helped to break up and disperse a lot of the oil naturally."
Quoting sunlinepr:
Mainichi: Massive dead creature floating in Tokyo Bay - Near where radioactive ash is dumped (PHOTO)
Mainichi Shimbun via EX-SKF, Jan. 10, 2012:

Japan Coast Guard isn’t sure what it is but it may be a whale Floating near the Aomi Container Wharf in Koto-ku


Right across from the landfill where the Tokyo Metropolitan government has been dumping the radioactive ashes (EX-SKF: “No correlation expressed or implied”)
Some Japanese are getting nervous, not because of radiation but because the March 11, 2011 earthquake was preceded by beaching of whales

tokyo is next hmmmmmmmm
Quoting Jedkins01:


You are correct haha.

Some people seem to forget that following Jesus is not about puffing out your chest about "I don't do this and I don't do that because I'm more righteous than you"

Its about what can we do to love our brother, and the most challenging of all, even our enemies.


I know this is a weather blog and not a religious one, but when I see ridiculous arguments and conflict over religion it makes me very sad, and I feel like I must put in some input, if you get what I mean.


you are correct. hydrus, far from it. :D
any1 done the Chicago scenario on NWS hotseat? i do not like the SRM colors at all, lol.
well im headed to bed. already up too late. gon be rough morning, see yal er- talk to yal later
Not A lot of rain chances coming up. The 2012 coaster continues.

March-Like Wednesday; Sharply Colder Late-Week...

Posted: Jan 10, 2012 7:55 PM CST Updated: Jan 10, 2012 7:55 PM CST
By Patrick Vaughn



Upper-level low pressure over North Texas responsible for yesterday's heavy rainfall and today's cloudy, chilly weather will move out of Texas tonight. The result will be gradually clearing trend with lows in the lower 40s forecasted across Southeast Texas Tonight. Westerly winds are expected.

Wednesday will be a day that will be hard to dress your kids. They'll need coats and jackets in the morning and shorts and flip-flops in the afternoon thanks to a big temperature swing. Sunny skies with afternoon highs in the middle to upper 60s are forecasted. Westerly winds in the morning will back to the south in the afternoon.

A strong Canadian cold front will drive through the area Late Wednesday Night. Possibly the coldest weather so far this winter will follow later this week.

After lows in the lower 40s, Thursday afternoon will be blustery with mostly sunny skies, windy northerly winds and highs near 50.

Freezing temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday Mornings will the possibility of a Hard Freeze.

Lows in the 20s are expected Friday Morning with highs possibly only in the upper 40s due to partly sunny skies.

Lows again will be in the 20s Saturday Morning with highs in the mid 50s under sunny skies. Parade-goers should prepare for temperatures in the 30s.

Sunday, mostly sunny skies are expected across Southeast Texas. Lows will be in the mid 30s with highs near 60.

Warmer weather is forecasted by Monday with lows in the upper 40s and highs in the lower 70s. Skies will become partly sunny with south-southeasterly winds.

Rain and a cold front is forecasted by next Tuesday Afternoon. The coverage of rain and thunderstorms is 60%. Lows will be near 60 with highs in the upper 60s.

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY TWO (07U)
3:00 PM WST January 11 2012
=========================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category Two (986 hPa) located at 19.1S 118.9E or 140 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 280 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots towards the coast.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Heidi has intensified into a category 2 system as it tracks south-southwest towards the Pilbara coast. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are expected in coastal areas east of Whim Creek this afternoon and evening. Destructive winds with gusts to 155 km/h are possible overnight close to the cyclone centre between Whim Creek and Pardoo, including Port Hedland. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h may extend west to Dampier overnight if the cyclone takes a more southwest track, and in the adjacent parts of the central Pilbara.

The heaviest rainfall are expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals of 100-250mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Residents in and near Port Hedland and east to Wallal are specifically warned of the potential of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center crosses the coast overnight. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with dangerous flooding of low-lying areas. Tides elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Sandfire Roadhouse to Dampier, including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier extending to adjacent inland parts.

The Cyclone WARNING from Dampier to Mardie has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 20.5S 118.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 21.4S 117.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 23.7S 115.7E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 27.1S 116.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Cyclone Heidi has intensified to category 2 showing a better defined circulation both by Port Hedland radar and by recent satellite imagery. Intensity of 50 knots based on Dvorak CI of 3.5 using time-averaged DT, although latest image and adjusted MET indicate 4.0 intensity. Offshore observations and ASCAT confirm the gale extent.

Motion in last 6 hours is now south southwest which should continue through to landfall, most likely in the Port Hedland/Whim Creek region.

Some further intensification is possible, although the system will make landfall within 12 hours. Weakening should be rapid after landfall aided by increasing wind shear and then a more southwest track overland is forecast. Model guidance has underestimated the intensity of the system and has generally tended to have a more westerly track than is predicted.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 10:30 AM UTC..


Tornado damage about 500 yards from my house in Fort Bend County Texas
Houston sure had some tummy aches this week :/
Link
(I dont know how to post videos)
Cyclone Heidi to cross WA coast overnight




Residents in Western Australia's Pilbara region are being warned to prepare for Cyclone Heidi, which is due to cross the coast overnight.

It has intensified to a category two system and is expected to hit the coast very close to Port Hedland and track south-west past Karratha - two of the state's major resource hubs.

The weather bureau says there will be destructive winds with gusts of up to 155 kilometres per hour and a dangerous storm tide near Port Hedland.

It is also warning that between 100 to 250 millimetres of rain could fall across the central and eastern Pilbara.

The bureau's Joe Courtney says residents have a bit of time to prepare.

"The most likely scenario is it crosses the coast towards midnight to the east of Port Hedland," he said.

A blue alert has been issued for people in or near the coast, including Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Roebourne, Port Samson, Karratha, Dampier and Mardie.

They are being told to organise an emergency kit including first aid, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Heavy rain and flash flooding has already forced road closures in the central and eastern Pilbara, as well as the town of Port Hedland.
Port shut

Australia's largest bulk export port at Port Hedland has been shut down as the cyclone nears.

The port's Steve Farrell says bulk ore carriers and other ships have been sent to safer waters.

"The last thing we want is for those vessels to break its mooring and run aground or cause damage, so it's always much safer for vessels and port to clear the vessels to safer water outside the cyclone area," he said.

Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals say they have stopped loading ships, but their mines are still operating as normal.

Dampier Port has sent the big ships out to safer waters and scaled back operations.

Oil and gas producers Woodside Petroleum and Santos say they have stopped production at some of their oilfields off the coast as the cyclone approaches.

Meanwhile, the Karijini and Millstream Chichester national parks remain shut after the rain caused flash flooding and inundation of roads and campsites in the parks.

Duty forecaster Darryl Vink says WA should be prepared for a number of cyclones this season.

"Potentially, we normally get four to five cyclones per season, we forecast slightly above that this year so we could expect another four to five, I guess," he said.
An Extract from:-116. percylives.
""Climate dice."

"This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface in the period of climatology, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. We conclude that extreme heat waves, such as that in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010, were "caused" by global warming,"

I like the title of this, "Climate Dice." As far as I can see it there are 2 land areas where the dice are loaded. The major land mass in Russia to the south of the Arctic Ocean and North America mainly from the US, Canada boarder upwards. These 2 areas may be about to become almost hot desert areas in the summers with ever increasing record temperatures. If this occurs then it is bound to not only increase the rates of ice loss in the Arctic area but also influence climate change in practically the whole of the Northern Hemisphere.
We may be seeing the beginnings of these changes now with these weather anomalies.
US Drought Monitor, January 3, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEIDI, CATEGORY TWO (07U)
6:00 PM WST January 11 2012
=========================

At 5:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category Two (986 hPa) located at 19.3S 118.9E or 115 km north northeast of Port Hedland and 265 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 6 knots towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Heidi remains a category 2 system as it tracks south-southwest towards the Pilbara coast. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h are expected in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Wallal this evening. Destructive winds with gusts to 140 km/h are possible overnight close to the cyclone center between Whim Creek and Pardoo, including Port Hedland. Gales with gusts to 100 km/h may extend west to Dampier overnight if the cyclone takes a more southwest track, and into the adjacent inland parts of the central Pilbara.

The heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall totals of 100-250mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara. Refer to Flood Advices for further details.

Residents in and near Port Hedland and east to Wallal are specifically warned of the potential of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center crosses the coast overnight. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with dangerous flooding of low-lying areas. Tides elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.

RED ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Pardoo and Whim Creek, including the communities of Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland, and Whim Creek, need to go to shelter immediately.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and island communities between Whim Creek and Dampier, including the communities of Roebourne, Pt Samson, Karratha, and Dampier need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Wallal to Dampier, including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier, and extends to adjacent inland parts.

The Cyclone WARNING from Sandfire Roadhouse to Wallal has been cancelled.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..



NWS Mobile his morning.


.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...THIS HAS CERTAINLY BEEN A HUMBLING
WEATHER SYSTEM TO TRACK WITH MOTHER NATURE CONTINUING TO FIND NEW
TRICKS UP HER SLEEVE. 09Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1001 MB LOW OVER NW
ALABAMA...WHICH CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT PULLS OFF TO THE
NNE. AS THE LOW BEGAN TO DEEPEN OVER WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA SEVERAL
HOURS AGO...WINDS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
IN THE WAKE OF THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL PASSAGE. NWS OBS AND UNIV. SOUTH
ALABAMA MESONET SITES HAVE SHOWN FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
ACROSS THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. THE
KMOB VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 30-35 KT WINDS AS LOW AS 2-3
KFT...INDICATING WE ARE MIXING A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF THESE WINDS TO THE
SFC. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM TO COVER THIS
SITUATION. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SFC LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS OF 25
MPH LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

windy humid looks like some rain showers today we could use alittle e cen fl. beautiful sunrise
Is it bad when Sea Surface Temperatures are slowly warming instead of cooling in January? Lol, seriously, look in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and especially the east coast of Florida.

Found another cool looking low off the coast of California.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is it bad when Sea Surface Temperatures are slowly warming instead of cooling in January? Lol, seriously, look in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and especially the east coast of Florida.



I was very surprised to see the water temp yesterday at Cocoa Beach at 69 degrees. It just goes to show you how warm of a winter it's been down here. Yes we did have a cold spell last week for 2 or 3 days but that's been the only one this season as most other days have been near 80. Very unusual and one can only imagine how warm these temps will get come April & May which typically when the 90 degree temps come back in full force.
With this winter storm near the great lakes Thursday, I see the storm might linger a little more into Friday. Do you think it would be safe enough by the late afternoon 3:00ish on Friday to travel from Indianapolis to Valparaiso?

If anybody has some thoughts, I would appreciate that...
Quoting MrstormX:
With this winter storm near the great lakes Thursday, I see the storm might linger a little more into Friday. Do you think it would be safe enough by the late afternoon 3:00ish on Friday to travel from Indianapolis to Valparaiso?

If anybody has some thoughts, I would appreciate that...


Wx looks good but getting cold though. Maybe a snow shower but that would be very slim. Your travel should be great just watchout for black ice on some of streets.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I was very surprised to see the water temp yesterday at Cocoa Beach at 69 degrees. It just goes to show you how warm of a winter it's been down here. Yes we did have a cold spell last week for 2 or 3 days but that's been the only one this season as most other days have been near 80. Very unusual and one can only imagine how warm these temps will get come April & May which typically when the 90 degree temps come back in full force.


In all honesty, based on the SST trends alone, and the maintaining amount of TCHP in the Caribbean still, 2012's hurricane season will probably start pretty early, I'm going to guess as far out and say within the next 4 months, perhaps having a sub-tropical or hybrid system developing in Early May or the last week of April, kind of what we saw with 91L last year in April. Could very well be wrong, but not a good sign when you have warming SST's in January.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Found another cool looking low off the coast of California.



Looks exactly like the tropical storm symbol...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Is it bad when Sea Surface Temperatures are slowly warming instead of cooling in January? Lol, seriously, look in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and especially the east coast of Florida.

Maybe this year will feature a cat 5 slamming into a coastal area of ours(or somewhere).It's the end of the world I tell ya!!!.LOLOL.Sarcasm flag is on BtW.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


In all honesty, based on the SST trends alone, and the maintaining amount of TCHP in the Caribbean still, 2012's hurricane season will probably start pretty early, I'm going to guess as far out and say within the next 4 months, perhaps having a sub-tropical or hybrid system developing in Early May or the last week of April, kind of what we saw with 91L last year in April. Could very well be wrong, but not a good sign when you have warming SST's in January.


One hurricane and a STS by June 15th. That's my forecast. Then, quiet in July and some fish storms in August, before the big one happens around the third week of September.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


One hurricane and a STS by June 15th. That's my forecast. Then, quiet in July and some fish storms in August, before the big one happens around the third week of September.


Oh, and I say 16-6-4 for the season count.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


One hurricane and a STS by June 15th. That's my forecast. Then, quiet in July and some fish storms in August, before the big one happens around the third week of September.


Think its way too early to make that kind of prediction. For all we know, it could be quiet and it could be insane.
Let's not make predictions this early.everyone was almost certain(with the exxception of me) that 2011 was going to be an average storm season.......we all know that didn't turn out.
It is interesting that these frontal systems that move into Florida have continued to fall well short of expectations rain wise. It was quite the opposite last Winter though. We were expected to get a solid squall line with widespread heavy rain amounts today in Central Florida, but the initial squall line has collapsed to nothing more than a trailing MCS in the southern Gulf. What has been left is nothing but some broken line segments of convection in the Gulf, a mere shell of what was to be expected. We can only hope these segments reorganize into a solid and thick line before it reaches Florida, its been very dry since November and the whole area needs it.

Ive seen this happen 3 or 4 times now since November.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


In all honesty, based on the SST trends alone, and the maintaining amount of TCHP in the Caribbean still, 2012's hurricane season will probably start pretty early, I'm going to guess as far out and say within the next 4 months, perhaps having a sub-tropical or hybrid system developing in Early May or the last week of April, kind of what we saw with 91L last year in April. Could very well be wrong, but not a good sign when you have warming SST's in January.


I agree!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Think its way too early to make that kind of prediction. For all we know, it could be quiet and it could be insane.


Quoting washingtonian115:
Let's not make predictions this early.everyone was almost certain(with the exxception of me) that 2011 was going to be an average storm season.......we all know that didn't turn out.


I know that my prediction is unlikely, but I just have this gut feeling about how 2012 hurricane season may go. And if there is one thing I learned, my gut is very trustworthy....

Quoting Jedkins01:
It is interesting that these frontal systems that move into Florida have continued to fall well short of expectations rain wise. It was quite the opposite last Winter though. We were expected to get a solid squall line with widespread heavy rain amounts today in Central Florida, but the initial squall line has collapsed to nothing more than a trailing MCS in the southern Gulf. What has been left is nothing but some broken line segments of convection in the Gulf, a mere shell of what was to be expected. We can only hope these segments reorganize into a solid and thick line before it reaches Florida, its been very dry since November and the whole area needs it.

Ive seen this happen 3 or 4 times now since November.


LOL! Jed hang in there man. Some strong thunderstorm are building off of Tampa right now.

Quoting WxGeekVA:




I know that my prediction is unlikely, but I just have this gut feeling about how 2012 hurricane season may go. And if there is one thing I learned, my gut is very trustworthy....

I had a gut feeling before the season started in 2011 that Irene will probally be the star of the season...As for this season I'll be waiting till may to make any predictions.Well we're humans and we arn't perfect.So I say...GO WITH YA GUT feeling.
...FL...

PRE-FRONTAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ONGOING OVER THE ERN G.O.M. ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE TODAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. HERE TOO...POOR
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...THOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL YIELD MLCAPE OF 500-700 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 40-45 KT
OF DEEP...WLY SHEAR AND MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A LOW
PROBABILITY RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL EXIST
THIS AFTERNOON
.

...MIDDLE TN INTO SRN APPALACHIANS...

ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY WITH STORMS FORMING INVOF MIDLEVEL COLD CORE.

..MEAD/BOTHWELL.. 01/11/2012


Heads up Florida...
If anyone would like to listen to NW Australian Radio. Go here.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Pardoo and Whim Creek are
requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the
following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 9:56 pm WST on Wednesday 11 January 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Wallal to Dampier,
including Port Hedland, Roebourne, Karratha and Dampier, and extends to
adjacent inland parts.

At 10:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Heidi, Category 2 was estimated to be
75 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
240 kilometres east northeast of Karratha and
moving south at 10 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Heidi remains a category 2 system as it tracks south towards
the Pilbara coast. The system is expected to take a more south-southwesterly
track overnight and cross the coast early on Thursday morning. Gales with gusts
to 100 kilometres per hour are occuring in coastal areas between Port Hedland
and Wallal, and should extend west to Whim Creek overnight. Destructive winds
with gusts to 155 kilometres per hour are possible overnight close to the
cyclone centre between Whim Creek and Pardoo, including Port Hedland. Gales
with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may extend west to Dampier during
Thursday morning if the cyclone takes a more southwesterly track, and into the
adjacent inland parts of the central Pilbara.

The heaviest rainfall is expected to the east and south of the system. Rainfall
totals of 100-250mm are possible across the central and eastern Pilbara. Refer
to Flood Advices for further details.

Residents in and near Port Hedland and east to Wallal are specifically warned
of the potential of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the
coast overnight. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high
tide mark with dangerous flooding of low-lying areas.

Tides elsewhere in the Pilbara should also be higher than normal.


RED ALERT: People in or near coastal and inland communities between Pardoo and
Whim Creek, including the communities of Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland,
and Whim Creek, need to go to shelter immediately.


BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and inland communities between Whim Creek
and Dampier, including the communities of Roebourne, Pt Samson, Karratha, and
Dampier need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit
including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Heidi at 10:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.7 degrees South 118.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 975 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm WST Wednesday 11 January.

morning wunderblog :)
seems the east coast is getting a good drenching the next couple days. anyone have an idea on where this low is tracking and how strong it could get? looks like it's ramping up to be quite a storm to me!
Quoting AussieStorm:


BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal and inland communities between Whim Creek
and Dampier, including the communities of Roebourne, Pt Samson, Karratha, and
Dampier need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit
including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.


Aussie, wouldn't a flashlight work better than a torch, or do they plan on attacking Frankenstein after the storm? :)
Anthrax outbreak claims lives of more than 165 wild animals in Zimbabwe

88 hippos, 45 buffaloes, 30 elephants and two kudos found dead in Mana Pools national park
Tests confirm hippos were killed by anthrax

By Stewart Maclean Last updated at 11:48 AM on 10th January 2012

More than 165 wild animals including 88 hippopotamuses have died amid an outbreak of anthrax in Zimbabwe.

The hippos were found dead alongside 45 buffaloes, 30 elephants and two kudos in the country's northern Mana Pools national park.

Zimbabwean Parks and Wildlife Management Authority spokeswoman Caroline Washaya-Moyo told the state-owned Herald newspaper that tests had proved the hippos were killed by anthrax.
Infectious: More than 165 wild animals including 88 hippopotamuses have died amid an outbreak of anthrax in Zimbabwe

Infectious: More than 165 wild animals including 88 hippopotamuses have died amid an outbreak of anthrax in Zimbabwe

She added that the cause of death for the other animals had not yet been confirmed but said early signs suggested they had also fallen victim to the infectious disease.

Ms Washaya-Moyo said she feared the outbreak could spread to other wildlife in the protected reserve, which lies around the lower Zambezi River.

She said: 'Our office has confirmed the anthrax outbreak following the death of the animals in Mana Pools.

'The Authority engaged the vet offices who later collected samples from hippos for lab testing.

'The lab test confirmed that 88 hippopotamus died of anthrax.'

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2084603/An thrax-outbreak-claims-lives-165-wild-animals-Zimba bwe.html#ixzz1jA1OSuqs

A new island forming in the Red Sea, about 60 kilometers (40 miles) from the coast of Yemen. This natural-color image was acquired by the Advanced Land Imager (ALI) aboard the Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite.

Earth's Newest Island, Burped from a Volcano, Is a Keeper by Natalie Wolchover Date: 10 January 2012

Earth's newest island is here to stay.

The island, a mound of lava and ash about 2,000 feet (600 meters) across, piled up during the eruption of an underwater volcano in the Red Sea in mid-December. It was initially suspected of being short-lived — most pileups of volcano debris in water quickly crumble back to the depths — but scientists say this one has solidified nicely.

LiveScience.com
Quoting KeysieLife:

A torch is same as flashlight
Quoting AussieStorm:

A torch is same as flashlight


Well, I'm not attacking Frankenstein with a flashlight!

Looks like a pretty rough night!

STAY SAFE!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Let's not make predictions this early.everyone was almost certain(with the exxception of me) that 2011 was going to be an average storm season.......we all know that didn't turn out.
no, most people called for an above average season (14-17 named storms in that area). We did get more storms than that but many of them were very weak and overall, in terms of ACE it ended up being just a slightly above average season.
Year's first tornado hits Texas City
The first tornado of 2012 touched down near 1pm CST in Texas City yesterday. The twister hit the Mall of the Mainland, damaging its roof and blowing out windows of parked cars. No injuries were reported, but the storm flooded the mall with 2 - 3 inches of water, and the mall remains closed today.


I pass this mall every morning going to work, from the front of Sears and the Mall, you can't tell anything happened. No damage around. Work 5 or so miles from the Mall. Have lunch near there all the time, was off that day though.
Quoting bappit:
Some flooding pics from yesterday morning in Houston.

Had over six inches in Sugarland. It came down in a hurry, too.

Edit: well, never mind. The link is broken now.


I guess the link is back up working now. Here is some more pics of the Houston flooding that happened on Monday

http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/gallery/H ouston-area-hit-by-flooding-twisters-34269/photo-2 021127.php
hello people. its raining again. does anybody know where i can find a VIL(vertically integrated liquid) loop from the NWS? using wunderground right now for it
A development firm in China has erected a 30-storey hotel in just 15 days, or 360 hours.

The developer, Broad Group, came under the global spotlight last year when it built a 16-storey residential block in China in just five days.
And their latest project, which is located in the south-central Chinese city of Changsha is no less impressive.
The ‘flat pack’ skyscraper was 90% pre-constructed in factories and then put together onsite. It uses one-sixth the materials of a comparable facility and is also an extremely energy-efficient building, combining thermal insulation, triple pane windows, external solar shading, fresh air heat recovery, and LED lighting. It is also earthquake-proof and is said to be able to withstand tremors of up to 9.0.
Having perfected their novel approach to construction the company now aims to build another 150 30-storey apartment buildings, hotels and offices in the same manner.
It is hoped that the ability to build property so quickly will revolutionize areas where property is in short supply.
The company believes that their approach could be used to quickly construct environmentally-friendly homes in over populated urban areas and could also be used in disaster relief to construct new buildings quickly and efficiently.

No doubt some British builders could take a leaf out of Broad’s book...

Link

Cyclone Heidi hits Pilbara coast in WA, residents on red alert
Link

January 11, 2011 – AUSTRALIA – Tropical Cyclone Heidi is crossing Western Australia’s Pilbara coast, bringing strong winds and heavy rains to the region. A red alert has been sounded for Port Hedland as storm surges threaten to inundate low lying parts of the town. “We’re certainly feeling the full brunt of Cyclone Heidi as she crosses the coast,” Port Hedland Mayor Kelly Howlett told Channel 9 this morning. “She’s certainly packing a little punch at the moment. “We’ve certainly got the wind gusts of a about 140km and very heavy rain.” Heidi started making landfall around 4.30am WST. She urged all residents to remain indoors until the official all clear is given. Communities between Pardoo and Whim Creek have all been ordered to shelter while those further inland were told to gather up emergency supplies and brace for Heidi’s wrath. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said winds of up to 120km/h had been whipping along the coast with destructive gusts up to 150 km/h possible in some places. Forecasters said up to 250 mm of rain is possible with the storm. The West Australian newspaper reported that Port Hedland’s airport and bulk export port had shut down. –Herald Sun