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Heavy rains kill seven in Georgia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:27 PM GMT on September 22, 2009

Very heavy rains exceeding fifteen inches have soaked the Atlanta, Georgia region over the past two days, triggering widespread major flooding. Record flood levels have been observed on seven rivers and creeks in the Atlanta area, breaking records that had been set as long ago as 1919. In one case, the new flood record (for Utoy Creek near Atlanta), was more that ten feet above the previous record, with the creek still rising. The Chattahoochee River was one of the rivers that rose to record levels, and flood waters from the Chattahoochee crested over the I-285 bridge in western Atlanta, forcing closure of the expressway. At least seven people have been killed, according to ajc.com, with at least six people still missing.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Atlanta, Georgia region ending on September 22. More than 15 inches (white colors) had fallen in and around Atlanta.

A list of the records set so far:

Noonday Creek near Woodstock 19.66 ft 21/530 PM, old record 16.30 ft (07/11/2005)

Nickajack Creek at Mableton 19.30 ft 22/215 am, old record 16.60 ft (07/11/2005)

North Fork Peachtree Creek at Atlanta 18.07 ft 21/715 PM, old record 17.70 ft (09/16/2004)

Utoy Creek near Atlanta 27.04 ft 22/715 am, old record 16.86 ft (05/06/2003)...still rising

Chattahoochee River at Whitesburg 29.58 ft 21/1015 PM, old record 29.11 ft (12/11/1919)

Suwanee Creek at Suwanee 14.30 ft 21/645 PM, old record 12.04 ft (10/05/1996)

Yellow River at Lithonia 25.50 ft 22/515 am, old record 17.53 ft (05/07/2003)... nearly steady

Yellow River near Conyers 20.80 ft 22/730 am, old record 16.36 ft (07/08/2005) below Milstead...still rising

Chattahoochee River at Franklin 28.71 ft 22/715 am, old record 28.40 ft (12/15/1919)...still rising

The strong flow of moist air from the southeast that fueled the heavy rains has diminished today, and no widespread heavy rains will affect northern Georgia over the next few days. However, there will be some scattered thunderstorms in the region the next two days that will dump heavy downpours over local areas, and these thunderstorms will keep flood waters from receding much along some flooded rivers and creeks. It is possible that some additional moisture from the remains of Hurricane Fred will affect northern Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday and Thursday, boosting rainfall totals from these scattered thunderstorms.


Figure 2. AVHRR visible satellite image of Hurricane Hugo taken on September 22, 1989. Hugo was over Ohio at this time, and had finally been declared extratropical.

Twenty years ago today
Hurricane Hugo plowed through the center of South Carolina on September 22, 1989, reaching the North Carolina border 140 miles inland by 8am EDT. Amazingly, Hugo remained at hurricane strength for its entire passage through South Carolina--a full eight hours. The hurricane caused massive damage to forests, buildings, and power lines along the way, killing thirteen South Carolinans in total. Charlotte, North Carolina, over 200 miles inland, and a place of refuge for many South Carolinans that fled the storm, received sustained winds of 69 mph from Hugo--just below the 74-mph threshold of hurricane strength. Hugo turned northwards and roared through Virginia, where it killed six people, then into West Virginia and Ohio, where it was finally declared extratropical at 2pm EDT on the 22nd. The hurricane claimed its final victim near Buffalo, New York, when winds from Hugo toppled a tree onto a motorist.

In all, Hugo did $7 billion in damage to the continental U.S., and $10 billion over its entire path ($17.6 billion in 2009 dollars), making it the most costly hurricane ever at that time. The final death toll was 56.


Figure 3. Maximum wind gusts recorded from Hurricane Hugo of 1989. Wind gusts in excess of 80 mph (green hatched areas) were recorded all the way to the North Carolina border, 140 miles inland. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.

There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of our reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Suwanee Creek Greenway flooding
Suwanee Creek Greenway flooding

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting IKE:


Where do you live?




I'm ready for a change. It starts about March....7 months of it....so far.



AMEN IKE... You are preaching to the choir, reverend Ike...
Quoting Hurricane009:
How can you just say Hi then leave the chat???


just stopped by lol
Quoting will40:


I think i saw Stormtop out there in a cropduster taking readings

Yeah i would believe that, I remember he said he didn't use computers to do his forecasts, and his weather rock.
Aussie"Dust"Storm - I feel for you. I hate it when the smoke and burning embers attack in Florida, I can only imagine that amount of dust!

BTW - I have to agree, looking at the traffic cams if that is heavy traffic I need to move to Australia... We have more traffic at 3am then that.
Quoting Dakster:
Aussie"Dust"Storm - I feel for you. I hate it when the smoke and burning embers attack in Florida, I can only imagine that amount of dust!

BTW - I have to agree, looking at the traffic cams if that is heavy traffic I need to move to Australia... We have more traffic at 3am then that.

I actually think a lot of people have stayed home due to the dust storm.
506. IKE
Quoting Dakster:


AMEN IKE... You are preaching to the choir, reverend Ike...


LOL.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah i would believe that, I remember he said he didn't use computers to do his forecasts, and his weather rock.


Yea i think i seen that rock lol. if the rock throws a shadow it is sunny. if rock is wet it is rainin.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I would hate to sit in evac traffic

me too but i was talking about regular good morning lets go to work traffic like this
Quoting will40:


Yea i think i seen that rock lol. if the rock throws a shadow it is sunny. if rock is wet it is rainin.


I think that rock hit him in the head a few times too many
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
NSW

Top Priority for Immediate Broadcast
NSW and ACT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
Widespread Damaging Winds
For people in the Metropolitan, Illawarra, Hunter, South Coast , Central
Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, South West Slopes, Central West Slopes , North
West Slopes, Northern Tablelands, Mid North Coast [higher parts and south], ACT
The warning is cancelled for the remaining districts.


Issued at 11:10 am on Wednesday 23 September 2009

Synoptic Situation: 9:00 am EST Wednesday
A strong cold front has reached Tweed Heads with a low pressure system deepening
in the Tasman Sea off the Far South Coast. Strong to gale force winds and
widespread dust are behind this front
.


Gale force westerly with winds averaging over 65 km/h and gusts in excess of 100
km/h have contracted to the eastern half of the state. They are most likely
on the Hunter, Metropolitan, Illawarra, South Coast and adjacent ranges.
Widespread raised dust is continuing over a large part of the state,
particularly in the northeast where it is expected to decrease only slowly.

Winds are expected to ease gradually from late afternoon through this evening.

Winds gusts between 90 km/h and 100 km/h were reported this morning at
Williamtown, Nobby's Head, Murrurundi AWS, Mt Boyce, Wollongong, Nowra and Gabo
Island. Mean wind speeds in excess of 65km/hr have also been recorded at
Kurnell. Visibility less than 1000 metres in raised dust was recorded over the
northeastern half of the state

This is an update of the warning issued at 4:50 am on Tuesday
Emergency services advise you to keep clear of fallen power lines, stay indoors
away from windows and keep children indoors.
Quoting Patrap:

nuthin'
Quoting iceman55:




Hey All!


hey iceman
Que bola mi gente???
Watcher we are watching weather in here .... please either politly join the weather related topics or find yourself a more appropriate blog please.
hey ice
Well it is almost three months till X-Mas...Funny to hear Yukon Cornelius so soon!
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Que bola mi gente???

1.Your not Cuban
2.Your from Broward which makes you ineligible to say this
Is all that convection blowing up over the gulf headed up toward atlanta too? after all the rain and flooding they have already had that could be bad.... good timeing for us we just moved away from the atlanta area, although may be bad for our stuff in storage up there. Anyone know where that mess is heading?
Quoting zebralove:
Is all that convection blowing up over the gulf headed up toward atlanta too? after all the rain and flooding they have already had that could be bad.... good timeing for us we just moved away from the atlanta area, although may be bad for our stuff in storage up there. Anyone know where that mess is heading?

no.


ok, that was a little uncalled for
Admin gonna be busy tonite
Quoting tornadodude:


ok, that was a little uncalled for

???
Matt, it was uncalled for and why did you quote it? Doesn't make sense.
Quoting iceman55:
gator23 That's Not Nice

your entitled to your opinion and so am i.
Quoting gator23:

???


that is considered a personal attack, please try to be a little nicer about it, maybe use personal messages instead? thanks
yea...but we aren't expressing our opinion...
Quoting gator23:



I am the most unreligious man you have ever met, and even I think that remark was uncalled for, you just joined him.
Quoting tornadodude:


that is considered a personal attack, please try to be a little nicer about it, maybe use personal messages instead? thanks

fair enough.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Matt, it was uncalled for and why did you quote it? Doesn't make sense.


fixed, thanks
Quoting gator23:

fair enough.


thank you sir
I am sorry I upset my fellow bloggers. Please accept my humblest apologies.
Quoting gator23:

1.Your not Cuban
2.Your from Broward which makes you ineligible to say this


Really? You think so? Well, I am.
In what part of Cuba were you born?
Quoting gator23:
I am sorry I upset my fellow bloggers. Please accept my humblest apologies.


It's alright, just try to be a little considerate, you know? thanks, no hard feelings
Ike, where is that gold ole Fall weather you promised? Its COOKING here in the Peninsula.
Quoting tornadodude:


Gitmo
Tornadodude, how old are you??

2AOI in bottom right
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Really? You think so? Well, I am.
Quoting tornadodude:


Gitmo

LMFAO!!!!! It doesnt matter he is still from Broward
Quoting Hurricane009:
Tornadodude, how old are you??


18, and a freshman at Purdue
Howdy All,
Presslord posted the following quote earlier. I told him I’d post back when we’d donated. It wasn’t much – Lord knows we ain’t got much, but I reckon if enough folks give a little, it’ll mean a lot to the Baxters.

BTW, there’s another site I heard about on the news (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032619/#32920444) where you can give anonymously to someone you know. It sounds pretty cool and all the money you give goes to that person. That person can then leave you a message (presumably a thank you) without them knowing who you are. The name of the site is Giving Anonymously. Their address is http://givinganon.org/.

180. presslord 6:47 PM GMT on September 22, 2009
Brian and Chrissy Baxter have lost their home in Lithia Springs, Georgia, due to the recent flooding. They also lost all their furniture, their clothing, and everything else that was in their home...as well as a car. The water was up to just a few inches from the ceiling inside their home.The Baxters have five children: Tony (male, age 13), Victoria (female, age 12), Brian (male, age 11), Nathan (male, age 10) and Aiden (male, age 1). The family is currently staying at an Extended Stay Hotel in Lithia Springs, Georgia. The hotel is without electricity.Both Brian and Chrissy work. However, they are unable to get to their jobs due to the flooding in the area. We don't know how much money they need. We do know that the family currently needs help with paying for lodging, food, clothing and transportation. Any help you can provide would be much appreciated.Portlight Strategies, Inc., has set a goal of raising $10,000.00 to help the Baxters defray the short term expenses of lodging, food and clothing.Please share your good fortune with this suffering family.Use the PayPal button @ www.portlight.orgOr send checks to:Portlight Strategies, Inc.2043 Maybank Hwy.Charleston, SC 29412memo: Baxters
Quoting presslord:
In what part of Cuba were you born?


Havana, why?
Matt, that comment about JFV was unnecessary.
553....Thanks!!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Matt, that comment about JFV was unnecessary.


I agreed, I removed it
just curious...it's a beautiful place...
..
When dealing with trolls or people who try to instigate conflicts, remember the following saying:

Ignorance is not only bliss, but also a virtue.
Quoting presslord:
just curious...it's a beautiful place...


It is, I miss it dearly.
Anyone watching Universe on the History Channel?
Thanks a million for coming to my defense, however, I appreciate it, pal.
He's not an idiot...sometimes the fingers type faster than the brain can process.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Anyone watching Universe on the History Channel?


Nope, is it good? I'm writing an English paper :/
Our local NBC news (WPTV) weatherman James Wieland, (the surfer dude - I love this guy - totally laid back style), is apparently getting credit for starting the muck monster craze going on down here (Lake Worth, FL). A CNN crew was reroute to do a story on it, when they were diverted to Honduras.
All the posts just went to the average setting. A lot not showing!
Quoting tornadodude:


Nope, is it good? I'm writing an English paper :/


You taking ENC1101?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
He's not an idiot...sometimes the fingers type faster than the brain can process.


thanks, and yes I agree, and I apologize
Quoting WeatherStudent:


You taking ENC1101?


nah, Eng106
Quoting tornadodude:


nah, Eng106



What's that?
Quoting WeatherStudent:



What's that?


Just an English writing class
It's very interesting. All the possible endings of life on earth. Seen it before, but presented in an interesting way.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
It's very interesting. All the possible endings of life on earth. Seen it before, but presented in an interesting way.


hmm, sounds intriguing, I might have to watch some of it
Riders on the storm
Riders on the storm
Into this house were born
Into this world were thrown
Like a dog without a bone
An actor out alone
Riders on the storm
WPB...I'd watch it...but I just can't tear myself away from CNBC's special on the porn industry...
Hear that? It's the sound of thousands of remotes clicking to CNBC (not here though, strickly broadcast only for the po folks).
I think for my next blog topic, I'm going to cover storm chasing. I plan on doing that this spring/summer. And if anyone is interested, let me know. I think I should start preparing for this asap.
Quoting mikatnight:
Hear that? It's the sound of thousands of remotes clicking to CNBC (not here though, strickly broadcast only for the po folks).


lol nice one
584. P451
Quoting gator23:

me too but i was talking about regular good morning lets go to work traffic like this


Oh whoas me... I guess you've never been to New Jersey.

That's child's play.

It took me 3.5 hours to go 100 miles on Monday morning. And I thought it was a decent, acceptable ride.

:/

It was...

:/

---
mik...excellent...
587. P451
Quoting cchsweatherman:
When dealing with trolls or people who try to instigate conflicts, remember the following saying:

Ignorance is not only bliss, but also a virtue.


The problem here is the admins refuse to monitor IPs.

If they did they'd discover that several people have multiple names and hold fake conversations amongst "themselves".

It's quite common on here and it's making it very tough to bother to come here to talk weather.

The past 30 odd posts hold quite the situation I am talking about. One person talking to himself using multiple names.

It's sad and pathetic and it has ruined the blog.

There are literally 30 odd "users" who post here that are at most 3 or 4 people doing so.

The fact that it has allowed to continue is a disgrace. An absolute disgrace.

The different avatars should fool no one it's part of the game of deception.

That someone, or rather 3 or 4 someones, would create multiple names a piece, to troll a WEATHER BLOG, is just asinine.

The fact that the able bodied admins see it and do nothing about it, or don't have the tools to do something about it, is a menace.

To those doing it, F-YOU.

WeatherStudent is a prime offender.

Iceman/Brxtx or whatever is also a prime offender.

Fake ass people with nothing better to do than to assume multiple identities and talk to themselves through them.

.........I implore everyone to lobby the admins to wake up and deal with this garbage.

Hey Geoffrey,
It, #585, might get you banned (maybe not, since the blog's so slow), but if means anything, I got a good chuckle out of it. lol
There's one I know of with at least 15 handles....sigh.
P451, you have mail
Quoting mikatnight:
Hey Geoffrey,
It, #585, might get you banned (maybe not, since the blog's so slow), but if means anything, I got a good chuckle out of it. lol


It is weather related...and to this day fills the dance floors in clubs!
Wow..Guess the action is on here tonight and not the tropics.. SPEAKING OF... thoughts on the tropics next few days?
for whatever it's worth, it just started raining on Johns Island SC
Quoting presslord:
for whatever it's worth, it just started raining on Johns Island SC


thank you, I was wondering if would
P451 (#587)

Really? People hold conversations with themselves??? Oh man, talk about funny…

Reminds me of a standup comic who was talking about people who talked to themselves. He said the saddest case he ever saw was the guy who couldn’t get a word in edgewise. It was always like “Yeah, I know, but…right…but…but…ok, you got a point there…but all I’m saying is…” Cracked me up.
Thread jack for a second folks - did anyone post the link to the images from the massive
duststorm over 1/2 of NSW and Sydney included. We woke to a red sky. Not pink, not a haze, it was red through and through...
link is to the SMH photos and video



Thread jack for a second folks - did anyone post the link to the images from the massive
duststorm over 1/2 of NSW and Sydney included. We woke to a red sky. Not pink, not a haze, it was red through and through...
link is to the SMH photos and video

Link



if the link doesn't work just go to the Sydney Morning Herald and see the pics :)
600. JLPR
587. P451 2:27 AM GMT on September 23, 2009

if iceman is a troll, then he is good troll who posts useful pictures, some of which I had never seen before, nor do I know the link to xD

Like the one he posted about the NAO going negative in Oct =O

and by the way, Hello everyone or anyone there =P
slow blog tonight
Iceman...you can post YouTube vids directly into the comment section. You do not have to click on the Image button. That will get rid of the img scr= stuff.
602. JLPR
Quoting mikatnight:
P451 (#587)

Really? People hold conversations with themselves??? Oh man, talk about funny%u2026

Reminds me of a standup comic who was talking about people who talked to themselves. He said the saddest case he ever saw was the guy who couldn%u2019t get a word in edgewise. It was always like %u201CYeah, I know, but%u2026right%u2026but%u2026but%u2026ok, you got a point there%u2026but all I%u2019m saying is%u2026%u201D Cracked me up.

lol I speak with myself in front of the computer screen... ummm that isn't normal, im probably a little nuts XD
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Iceman...you can post YouTube vids directly into the comment section. You do not have to click on the Image button. That will get rid of the img scr= stuff.


And how does one do that, if I may ask?
Quoting JLPR:
587. P451 2:27 AM GMT on September 23, 2009

at if iceman is a troll, then he is good troll who posts useful pictures, some of which I had never seen before, nor do I know the link to xD

Like the one he posted about the NAO going negative in Oct =O

and by the way, Hello everyone or anyone there =P
slow blog tonight


I totally agree with you about iceman, and good evening to you as well :P
Quoting P451:


Oh whoas me... I guess you've never been to New Jersey.

That's child's play.

It took me 3.5 hours to go 100 miles on Monday morning. And I thought it was a decent, acceptable ride.

:/

It was...

:/



The lovely NJ Turnpike, been there, done that, did NOT enjoy that!! PLUS you have to pay to drive on it!!

I understand, formally living in NYC, that they're overdue for a major hurricane!!! The Throgs Neck, Whitestone, Triboro, Verrazzano Narrows, Goethels, and remaining bridges sit 200' above the ground, which means they're going to be shut down by the wind early on! The MidTown & Holland Tunnels will shut down due to rising tides, along with many subway lines!!I pray and hope a major storm NEVER strikes there, but eventually, it will happen!!
I hope and pray the NY-NJ Metro area has a plan!!
Boy that quote turned out weird. Why do they do that sometimes?
Quoting mikatnight:


And how does one do that, if I may ask?


Just copy the embed and paste in comments.
tornado...Are you from here?
610. JLPR
Quoting mikatnight:
Boy that quote turned out weird. Why do they do that sometimes?


yes :|

a lot of numbers that weren't there XD
Thanks Geoffrey.
Not much out there... lots of pretty graphics of the ummmm ... very high Humidity in the GOM region.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Quoting presslord:
tornado...Are you from here?


no, sorry, I was just trying to be a little funny, trying to lighten the mood some
614. P451
Quoting JLPR:


lol I speak with myself in front of the computer screen... ummm that isn't normal, im probably a little nuts XD
I constantly argue with myself. It's a mental thing. I try to keep it to myself. Except when someone sees me mumbling to myself I guess I get caught. Oh well.

As to potentially accusing someone of doing something - I apologize if I am doing so - but I'm quite sure I am not.

On a time sensitive blog, one of which does not immediately post a message that has been submitted, to see certain "Individuals" engaged in a heated agreeable conversation, whose posts are less than 30 seconds apart on multiple occasions, raises a rightful concern.

It is what it is, I hate having to put some users on ignore, but I have resorted to doing so given the circumstances that are very obvious here.

It's sad, it's pathetic, it's unfortunate, but it is what it is.

I just felt it was time to chime in on the very obvious problem here.

It has ruined the blog. Congrats to those who were seeking to do so.

:/

You are welcome. I learned all that stuff from other bloggers. Pass it on!
616. P451
Quoting Bordonaro:


The lovely NJ Turnpike, been there, done that, did NOT enjoy that!! PLUS you have to pay to drive on it!!

I understand, formally living in NYC, that they're overdue for a major hurricane!!! The Throgs Neck, Whitestone, Triboro, Verrazzano Narrows, Goethels, and remaining bridges sit 200' above the ground, which means they're going to be shut down by the wind early on! The MidTown & Holland Tunnels will shut down due to rising tides, along with many subway lines!!I pray and hope a major storm NEVER strikes there, but eventually, it will happen!!
I hope and pray the NY-NJ Metro area has a plan!!


Yeah, we've had previews in the sense....of slow moving TStorms or Nor'Easters. We're very vulnerable but we're not without alternate planning.

Up here you're unlikely to see mass drownings you're just likely to see mass whining from those that can't move around as they usually do on a daily basis.

a little levity is good tornado...anytime ya need a good chuckle, check out orca's picture...
Quoting presslord:
a little levity is good tornado...anytime ya need a good chuckle, check out orca's picture...


haha will do, thanks
Did I reply too quickly?
Quoting presslord:
a little levity is good tornado...anytime ya need a good chuckle, check out orca's picture...


Hey... from a man in a dress that hurt.
Please say hello too TD 17E
...yea...but I'm a HOT man in a dress...
Quoting Tazmanian:
Please say hello too TD 17E


howdy
"...I'm
Gonna soak up the sun
Gonna tell everyone
to lighten up..."
Orca, Interesting graphics you always provide. Thank you.
P541- Hey, I sent you a personal message, dont know if you received it or not, but I would appreciate a message in return, thanks
627. JLPR
Quoting Tazmanian:
Please say hello too TD 17E


well the Atlantic currently dead but the Eastern Pacific wants to entertain us :)
Quoting presslord:
...yea...but I'm a HOT man in a dress...


That may be so (not)... but its still a man in a dress. I understand thats a fairly common thing in the Carols... but its still unusual for this neck of the woods.
Quoting foggymyst:
Orca, Interesting graphics you always provide. Thank you.


For you foggy... anytime :)
By the way, over the next few months I will be working on a project where I will be creating lessons on basic tropical forecasting, especially with analyzing CIMSS products, satellite imagery, and computer model data. It seems that many appreciate my updates and info and the way I explain things. I have decided to do this since, as I have seen throughout the season here on the blogs, many people have a desire to learn and I want to help out since I feel that if you have the knowledge and skills to help others learn, you should share them.
Quoting Orcasystems:


That may be so (not)... but its still a man in a dress. I understand thats a fairly common thing in the Carols... but its still unusual for this neck of the woods.


blog is heating up now :P
yea...y'all wear...like bear skin...Right?
633. JLPR
614. P451 2:48 AM GMT on September 23, 2009

XD yes people look at you weird if they catch you speaking to yourself lol
and yep its sad
talking to yourself on a weather blog = nothing to do with your life
its sad
I'm watching that area off the East Coast of Florida. Low wind shear. Could take off and pop in 24-36hrs.
Quoting presslord:
yea...y'all wear...like bear skin...Right?


Yup, and mucklucks and Noreaster's
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I'm watching that area off the East Coast of Florida. Low wind shear. Could take off and pop in 24-36hrs.


This one?

637. JLPR
little area of convection related to the TW that exited Africa but if it starts spinning it should then absorb SAL and die a dry death =P

Quoting presslord:
yea...y'all wear...like bear skin...Right?


Do they remove the bears first?
Interesting show on the history channel about "Hyper-Canes"
Quoting tornadodude:
Interesting show on the history channel about "Hyper-Canes"


I watched it the other day..pretty good show.. but the season premier of NCIS is on.. so good night all :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


I watched it the other day..pretty good show.. but the season premier of NCIS is on.. so good night all :)


sounds good, have a good one Orca
I love watching that stuff Matt.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I love watching that stuff Matt.


It is really interesting to say the least
Night Orca.
645. 789
Quoting cchsweatherman:
By the way, over the next few months I will be working on a project where I will be creating lessons on basic tropical forecasting, especially with analyzing CIMSS products, satellite imagery, and computer model data. It seems that many appreciate my updates and info and the way I explain things. I have decided to do this since, as I have seen throughout the season here on the blogs, many people have a desire to learn and I want to help out since I feel that if you have the knowledge and skills to help others learn, you should share them.
will be appreciated ! thank you
Quoting Orcasystems:


I watched it the other day..pretty good show.. but the season premier of NCIS is on.. so good night all :)


We watched NCIS earlier. Great episode. The ending goes like this...
Quoting 789:
will be appreciated ! thank you


No problem. Just as long as people appreciate it and learn from it, thats all the satisfaction I will want.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


No problem. Just as long as people appreciate it and learn from it, thats all the satisfaction I will want.


I am definitely looking forward to it, glad you have the right attitude :)
Quoting tornadodude:
Interesting show on the history channel about "Hyper-Canes"


Yeah, I've seen it before. I don't want to be around if those ever become a reality. lol
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Yeah, I've seen it before. I don't want to be around if those ever become a reality. lol


ha yeah, that would be insane
Quoting 789:
will be appreciated ! thank you


OR you could just go here where its already been done by a Blog Member

quasigeostropic Weather 101
Front page for the lesson Blogs

1)This blog-The art of forecasting, quickscat interpretation
2)Satellite interpretation
3)Forecasting intensity, track, size of tropical cyclones, Fujiwhara conditions(still under construction)
4)Using computer models, forecasting forward speed, understanding gradient concepts, forecasting near land
5)Jetstream mechanics
6)Forecasting wind shear, SSTs
7)Interpreting weather maps and understanding important climatological signals to forecast long term hurricane behavior
8)Understanding extratropical, subtropical, tropical storms and what they mean in terms of forecasting
Quoting presslord:
...yea...but I'm a HOT man in a dress...


Seems like you are in a bad mood tonight Orca.
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP172009
3:00 AM UTC September 23 2009
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 17E (1006 hPa) located at 15.7N 115.7W or 545 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS: 16.4N 116.5W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
Now that the tropics are quiet(for now at least) does anyone know what yovan means?
Quoting Orcasystems:


OR you could just go here where its already been done by a Blog Member

quasigeostropic Weather 101


Never have seen this blog before, but it looks great.

But I will be using my own graphics and will be explaining everything in easy to understand words that would help a laymen understand something as complex as tropical weather just like I have been doing for the past year.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Seems like you are in a bad mood tonight Orca.


???
I was just pointing out that there is already an excellent tutorial blog available. Its a collaboration from a couple members..and I have actually read the whoolllleeee thing.
They were refering to Yovan off the african coast
Quoting kuppenskup:
They were refering to Yovan off the african coast


I'm not sure, are you sure it is spelled correctly?
Orca - you can please some of the people...
Yovan
level: populated place
location: Khatlon, Tajikistan
coordinates: 38° 18' 47" North, 69° 2' 35" East


link
Quoting Orcasystems:


???
I was just pointing out that there is already an excellent tutorial blog available. Its a collaboration from a couple members..and I have actually read the whoolllleeee thing.


Saved it to my faves.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Saved it to my faves.

ditto
Is this what prevented storms forming off africa this yr was the yovan factor?
Now back to NCIS...where was I? Oh yeah, the surprise ending! Whoever in their wildest dreams would of thought aliens from outer space would end up saving the crew's bacon...totally caught me off guard.
Quoting kuppenskup:
Is this what prevented storms forming off africa this yr was the yovan factor?


sorry, Ive been searching the internet and can't find anything about it
Well to make tonight interesting, a certain blogger suspects that I use multiple handles on this blog.
Quoting mikatnight:
Now back to NCIS...where was I? Oh yeah, the surprise ending! Whoever in their wildest dreams would of thought aliens from outer space would end up saving the crew's bacon...totally caught me off guard.


You and me both, And Ziva, who knew ...
Quoting kuppenskup:
Is this what prevented storms forming off africa this yr was the yovan factor?


Dr. Steve Lyons from the WC wrote about the quiet season this year in his blog yesterday. Here's the link.
Pretty nice article.
Quoting tornadodude:


sorry, Ive been searching the internet and can't find anything about it



They say it's something that's holding tropical activity from forming and it has nothing to do with elnino. It's Yovan maybe im misspelling it, does anyone know what it is?
Dan, you absolutely crack me up with those damn emo-whatchamacallits. You appear to have an endless supply...
Quoting mikatnight:
Dan, you absolutely crack me up with those damn emo-whatchamacallits. You appear to have an endless supply...

You have no idea how long I have been waiting to use that one! BTW, lucky NCIS had "THE FORCE" on their side.
unbelievable! lol
Quoting mikatnight:
unbelievable! lol


I am impressed haha

btw, do any of you think that I use multiple handles?
Any faith no more fans out there?
Quoting PcolaDan:

You have no idea how long I have been waiting to use that one! BTW, lucky NCIS had "THE FORCE" on their side.


anyone see ex fred?

680. P451
East Coast US: 48 Hour Loop - Fred?

The southern end(south of Cuba) of what I believe to be the tropical wave, which was connected to Fred is interesting looking tonight. Plenty of spin in the mid levels. Plenty of hot water to work over, and most important, no persistent ULL's to spoil the party.

Quoting tornadodude:


I am impressed haha

btw, do any of you think that I use multiple handles?


It never occurred to me that someone would ‘til I heard that, well, someone else had done it. But having conversations with themselves? That’s a new one on me.
Quoting mikatnight:


It never occurred to me that someone would ‘til I heard that, well, someone else had done it. But having conversations with themselves? That’s a new one on me.


ok, well one individual suspects that I do that, and I assure you guys I dont, it is a funny thought tho
hey iceman, dont forget to cite your sources
Quoting mikatnight:


Alas, I cannot take credit for any of them. They are all image links. Orca started it all though.
Well it's past my bedtime and I've (thankfully) got work for tomorrow. G'nite.
I think it
Quoting iceman55:
Summer Ends - Has the 2009 Season Ended?



Autumn arrives across the Northern Hemisphere at 4:18PM CDT today, signaling a transition from the hot, steamy days of summer to the arrival of cold fronts across the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, the first such cold front will reach the northern Gulf today. It’s weak, but it’s a sign of things to come. In another week or two, cold fronts will begin moving out across the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast U.S. Coast weekly. With each passing cold front, wind shear and dry air will spill out across the Gulf of Mexico and Southwest Atlantic, diminishing the chances of tropical development in the region and gradually bringing the 2009 hurricane season to an end.

To say that the 2009 hurricane season has been quiet would be an understatement. Except for a brief burst of activity in late August and early September, the Atlantic Basin has been quite a hostile environment for tropical cyclones. Only Bill and Fred would be able to find a small area of favorable conditions to allow each to become a hurricane. The other four named storms, Ana, Claudette, Danny and Erika, would struggle as weak, sheared tropical storms. Both hurricanes reached major hurricane intensity, but only Bill made landfall in a much-weakened state over eastern Newfoundland.
Is the 2009 season over? I think it’s a little too early to make such a statement. Last year, major hurricanes Omar and Paloma developed in the Caribbean Sea in October and November. But the Caribbean has been dominated by high wind shear and sinking air since June, and there’s no sign that the environment is changing as of late September. There may be periods over the next month when wind shear will relax enough across the Gulf of Mexico or the Southwest Atlantic east of the Bahamas to allow for something to develop. The steering currents of late September through October typically would take late-season developments either toward the northeast Gulf (Florida), the East U.S. Coast, or the northern Caribbean.

I think that another 1 or 2 named storms will probably develop over the next 3-4 weeks and that will be it for 2009. The 2009 hurricane season will be one of those seasons that no one remembers, and that’s not a bad thing.


I think it's all over Iceman, last yr we did have Omar & Paloma but that was not during a Elnino season. I agree we might have 1-2 more storms left in the season but we will see a lot of violent and cold weather in the south this winter like any Elnino year. Watch temperatures in the South Florida area to get in the upper 20's-low 30's at certain times of the winter.
Quoting mikatnight:
Well it's past my bedtime and I've (thankfully) got work for tomorrow. G'nite.


have a good one
Quoting tornadodude:


have a good one


No please dont go to sleep, if you go to bed what am I gonna do?
Quoting Orcasystems:




HEY!
694. JRRP
Quoting tornadodude:
anyone see ex fred?


jajjajajajaja
Quoting JRRP:

jajjajajajaja


haha how are you this evening?
Quoting PcolaDan:


HEY!


I have one I really want to use.. but its not worth the 24 it would garner :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have one I really want to use.. but its not worth the 24 it would garner :)


I think I'm going to start a new tradition around here.
.
.
.
GOODNIGHT FRED.
I swear that xfred is a trip. Its been to NC,SC.GA, and Fla lmao
Quoting iceman55:
kuppenskup how


If you look at recent history anytime we have had a Elnino season cold fronts have moved further South from Canada then they normally would and they seem to be more powerful(I dont know why that is but it just is-check 1993 storm of the yr, 1996 where Florida had all those tornadoes and again in the late 1990's also in the early-late 70's & 1983-1984 as well-every time we had a elnino yr the winters had a lot more punch to them and dipped further south) which means more violent weather and very cold temps for the south.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have one I really want to use.. but its not worth the 24 it would garner :)


LMAO. And on that note I'm off.

Peace out
Oh, and, be safe. Lots of water out there.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 1143 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2009
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 1035 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 920 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 844 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 828 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 817 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 753 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 755 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009
FLASH FLOOD WARNING RALEIGH NC - KRAH 842 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2009
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 656 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 643 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BROWNSVILLE TX - KBRO 631 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 614 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 545 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009


ok guys, im out, have a goodnight


ok guys, im out, have a goodnight
Quoting iceman55:
Summer Ends - Has the 2009 Season Ended?



Autumn arrives across the Northern Hemisphere at 4:18PM CDT today, signaling a transition from the hot, steamy days of summer to the arrival of cold fronts across the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, the first such cold front will reach the northern Gulf today. It’s weak, but it’s a sign of things to come. In another week or two, cold fronts will begin moving out across the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast U.S. Coast weekly. With each passing cold front, wind shear and dry air will spill out across the Gulf of Mexico and Southwest Atlantic, diminishing the chances of tropical development in the region and gradually bringing the 2009 hurricane season to an end.

To say that the 2009 hurricane season has been quiet would be an understatement. Except for a brief burst of activity in late August and early September, the Atlantic Basin has been quite a hostile environment for tropical cyclones. Only Bill and Fred would be able to find a small area of favorable conditions to allow each to become a hurricane. The other four named storms, Ana, Claudette, Danny and Erika, would struggle as weak, sheared tropical storms. Both hurricanes reached major hurricane intensity, but only Bill made landfall in a much-weakened state over eastern Newfoundland.
Is the 2009 season over? I think it’s a little too early to make such a statement. Last year, major hurricanes Omar and Paloma developed in the Caribbean Sea in October and November. But the Caribbean has been dominated by high wind shear and sinking air since June, and there’s no sign that the environment is changing as of late September. There may be periods over the next month when wind shear will relax enough across the Gulf of Mexico or the Southwest Atlantic east of the Bahamas to allow for something to develop. The steering currents of late September through October typically would take late-season developments either toward the northeast Gulf (Florida), the East U.S. Coast, or the northern Caribbean.

I think that another 1 or 2 named storms will probably develop over the next 3-4 weeks and that will be it for 2009. The 2009 hurricane season will be one of those seasons that no one remembers, and that’s not a bad thing.

Amen.
---
[Several models] show something in the BOC in about a week. Several are in agreement. If you believe the MJO models, if we're going to see ANYTHING in October, it's going to be in the GOM or Caribbean.
715. JRRP
editado


out!!

The blog has been taken over by little blinking characters!
Hi Iceman - not even any good pics for you to post today.
722. JLPR
Quoting iceman55:



CRAZY


below average xD
Lets see if something forms in October
or this one could go below normal
IMO this season is done. It doesn't matter if the MJO comes back strong if the westerlies and TUTT are going to keep things in check. I think the US will not get hit by 1 hurricane this season and 2009 will be one of the most least active on record.
Quoting markymark1973:
IMO this season is done. It doesn't matter if the MJO comes back strong if the westerlies and TUTT are going to keep things in check. I think the US will not get hit by 1 hurricane this season and 2009 will be one of the most least active on record.



yup well said
726. JLPR
I definitely don't expect anything like this xD
mm1973 is a troll disagrees with anything
Quoting markymark1973:
IMO this season is done. It doesn't matter if the MJO comes back strong if the westerlies and TUTT are going to keep things in check. I think the US will not get hit by 1 hurricane this season and 2009 will be one of the most least active on record.


While we may see an additional storm or two, I strongly agree.
Quoting btwntx08:
mm1973 is a troll disagrees with anything


Somehow I doubt trolls would begin their sentence with "IMO".
^ That sure is a small cane in that pic XD
Quoting markymark1973:
^ That sure is a small cane in that pic XD


But alas, it's one of the more notable ones.
Quoting iceman55:
Eastern Pacific Basin is dead and Atlantic Basin Indian Ocean wow this so crazy



Link


here gfs 00z


???

What about TD17-E/TS Nora?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Somehow I doubt trolls would begin their sentence with "IMO".

well if this was some other blogger then ok i agree but with the blogger i don't so thats y have him on the ......... lol
out
I can't remember a year this boring in the Atlantic basin.
742. JLPR
Quoting markymark1973:
I can't remember a year this boring in the Atlantic basin.


97 had one more named storm than this season, and casually it was the same list of names xD
Quoting markymark1973:
I can't remember a year this boring in the Atlantic basin.


There have been several. 1982, in particular, was extremely boring.

Though it is worth noting that if another tropical cyclone does not develop by the end of this month, this will be the quietest September since 1997.
746. JLPR
Quoting iceman55:
1997 ???? noway


yep check it
xD
wikipedia
Evening all.

Look on this model at the end of the run. It shows a storm forming pretty far south then heading just east of the islands. Could this be legit? Or is it too far away?
Link
Hmmm FredEx making his move!
FredEx about to make landfall over me :)

Thanks Ice. Saw this in my local NWS earlier. but never found the low on radar or sat.

POPS WILL BE
HIGHEST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFF THE LOWER TX COAST MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE AREA

and this...


MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS BY TOMORROW AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY EWD. FAR ERN
WATERS MAY REMAIN IN MORE SRLY FLOW AS THE FRONT STALLS...ALTHOUGH
FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH NRLY WINDS ALL WATERS. NERLY TO ERLY FLOW
WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS BY SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE ERN GULF. NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

Here's where CMC puts the BOC low...

Looks like the 'eye' will make landfall about 10 miles to my north :)

NWS New Orleans Radar
NWS Extended Forecast for SE Louisiana & South MS.



758. JLPR
well im off to bed
no need to wait till blackout is over since there is nothing trying to form =P

goodnight :)
Hmmmm. Maybe they weren't crazy. And I couldn't find the low because it hasn't developed yet. Lol. Hot off the presses.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2009

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NW WATERS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E
STALLING ALONG PSN FROM EXTREME W FL PANHANDLE TO 25N95W TO
CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE WED. AS THE FRONT MEANDERS OVER THE
N AND W PORTIONS ITS POSSIBLE A FRONTAL WAVE LOW MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR 28N WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING.
NLY WINDS
W OF FRONT WERE IN 15-20 KT RANGE TUE BUT HAVE DIMINISHED TO
10-15 KT ATTM. ALTHOUGH WEAK...AN ELY WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL ATTM...AND SHOULD MERGE WITH WHATEVER REMAINS OF
THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE STALLED FRONT FRI NIGHT AND SAT...
WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING W THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN.


Could get interesting in the gulf the next week or so.
I'm out too. Everybody finally home so the dog stopped barking and its quiet now. Dumb little dog. If an ax murderer was coming thru the door she wouldn't make a sound. No, she barks at people who live here. Lol. Have a good night everyone. :)
Quoting iceman55:
i hope not


Me too Ice. But I'd rather know about it ahead of time. That's the direction Humberto snuck up on us from. Lol. :)
Flooding in North Georgia - Photo taken in Austell, Ga. located 25 miles Northwest of Atlanta, Ga.
View of Sweetwater Creek Subdivision.



... THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE SWEETWATER CREEK NEAR AUSTELL... * UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. * AT 4 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 29.6 FEET AND FALLING. * MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. * FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. * AT 20.0 FEET... RECORD FLOODING DATING TO JULY 8... 1916 OCCURS. DISASTROUS FLOODING OCCURS IN DOUGLAS AND COBB COUNTIES.)


We have Tropical Storm Nora.
770. IKE
From Birmingham,AL....

"BEYOND SATURDAY...THE TRUE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
AROUND MONDAY USHERING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN
SUGGESTS THAT DEW POINTS WILL GO FROM THE 70S TO THE 40S BY NEXT
TUESDAY WITH LOW TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 50S. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...CHANGES WILL BE WELCOME WITH THIS FRONT."

And Mobile,AL....

"CHANCES OF SHWRS/TSTMS
LOOK TO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND. THIS OCCURS AS THE UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS OVER THE GULF AND HIGH LEVEL W/SW FLOW BECOMES MORE ACTIVE
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF TROF
COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE TROF SHOWS PROGRESSION INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SIGNALS AND SUPPORTS A DOWNWARD
TREND IN POP...ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME HIGHS BY TUESDAY
LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 80S ALONG W/LOWER HUMIDITY. ALTHOUGH MINS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THEN AS WELL...THE COOLEST MINS WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE
WITH CLIMATOLOGY LOOK TO OCCUR JUST BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE. JUST IN
TIME AS WE NEAR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER."

Quoting KoritheMan:
We have Tropical Storm Nora.


14 named storms when the average is 15.


Good Morning everyone.
Quoting Weather456:


14 named storms when the average is 15.


Good Morning everyone.
Good morning. Anything going on in the Caribbean I should know about ? We are getting some good downpours and some serious lightning and thunder. Winds kicking up to 30 mph and pressure at 1008.
773. IKE
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 23N85W TO 18N85W SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-23N W OF 86W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS CUBA N OF 19N BETWEEN 74W-84W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S AND E OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 75W-84W...AND N OF 16N BETWEEN 66W-72W AFFECTING
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
Good Morning again, my blog is updated

Met Office GloSea Model Performance for 2009
Good morning
776. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Good morning


Glad to see you back.

glad to be back
778. IKE
Looks like the first significant cold-front will be heading into the SE USA Monday into Tuesday. As far as the tropical Atlantic, I don't see much. A low in the BOC in a few days, but it doesn't develop much. Looks all clear through the rest of this month....

6Z GFS at 144 hours.

Good morning

It's like a TS outside this morning. Lots of T & L, winds gusting between 24 and 30 MPH and almost an inch of rain since midnight.

Pressure is 1012 and rising rapidly so it would appear nothing imminent out there for the time being.

some disorganized convection building in this area sw of isle youth thats about it


nice area off east us west atlantic as well near 30 60

good day kman ya its a bubbling up over the island this morning i see
one quick note all this excitement about cold frontscoming into the gulf in late sept and oct sometimes works out for the worst. john hope uused to always say that weak fronts going stationary over the warm gulf were many times a curse not a blessing. for the winter weather enthusiast on here remember this: oct 28 thru nov 3 1985 in the northern gulf hurricane juan, and a week before thanksgiving 1985 cat 2 kate lands in panama city . not picking, just think its a little irresponsible for people to lead others to the idea that tropical activivty for the conus is through because of early season fronts. have a nice day at work.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good day kman ya its a bubbling up over the island this morning i see


Good morning to you too.

Yeah, great light show outside now.
Let's see what happens if it sits in the area. I have seen depressions spin up quickly in the NW Caribbean but surface pressure is relatively high and now at 1011.8 mb
Good morning...
thanks boys
Good Morning everyone. Very humid out this morning in Boca Raton, FL
Quoting IKE:
Looks like the first significant cold-front will be heading into the SE USA Monday into Tuesday. As far as the tropical Atlantic, I don't see much. A low in the BOC in a few days, but it doesn't develop much. Looks all clear through the rest of this month....
check in six hours


Back later
i read in one of herberts books that a surface trough can put out just as much rain as a cyclone iread over 100 inches have been recorded in cuba back in the 30s
794. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Quoting IKE:
Looks like the first significant cold-front will be heading into the SE USA Monday into Tuesday. As far as the tropical Atlantic, I don't see much. A low in the BOC in a few days, but it doesn't develop much. Looks all clear through the rest of this month....

6Z GFS at 144 hours.

What does BOC represent? Thanks.
796. IKE
Quoting TomSal:
What does BOC represent? Thanks.


Bay Of Campeche.
huge dust storm covered everything with a inch of red dust gold coast australia
Quoting StormW:
How's that for warmth?



Sure is. Could possibly be in trouble next year if the signals are correct.

Weather456 posted a great blog on the subject back in July for those interested.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Sure is. Could possibly be in trouble next year if the signals are correct.
Weather456 posted a great blog on the subject back in July for those interested.



Sorry, I meant to grab your NAO comment.
do u guys think a TC can form in the carribean with this dissturbance?
Quoting Canekid98:
do u guys think a TC can form in the carribean with this dissturbance?


Anything is possible down there this time of year
lol... thanks
wow it's reaaaaaly quiet
wow! i feel lonely it so quiet
ECOH ecoh ecoh
i give up


its a EL Nino year its NOT like last year when we did not have EL Nino all so in EL Nino years the carribean is shut down by OCT and the carribean have been shut down all season
ECOH ecoh ecoh
well im out peace
Quoting StormW:
Talk about a change!



Quite a drop, may get more disturbances in about 10 days. Good thing that drop didn't occur during the peak.
810. IKE
Look at the westerly shear throughout the Caribbean and ATL....no wonder the NHC says no development in the next 48 hours...
Quoting IKE:
Look at the westerly shear throughout the Caribbean and ATL....



Year of the Shear
812. IKE
Quoting TampaSpin:


Year of the Shear


This is like watching paint dry. Fortunately I have to go try and make a dollar.

L8R.
Quoting IKE:


This is like watching paint dry. Fortunately I have to go try and make a dollar.

L8R.


Yep your right IKE .......Have a good one Buddy!.....Also i will eat your black bird i had reserved for ya.....LOL
Quoting Tazmanian:
i give up


its a EL Nino year its NOT like last year when we did not have EL Nino all so in EL Nino years the carribean is shut down by OCT and the carribean have been shut down all season


Taz, all due respect but, this El Nino is very weak. We've experienced 0 of the traditional effects of El Nino in SFL this summer. There haven't been any disturbances in the Caribbean thus far because they have all been re-curving.
Hello out there and good morning,

I just lost The Weather Channel. Anyone else? Not sure whether it's our cable provider or trouble in Atlanta, yet. Says "temporarily off air" & "please check back later." I hate calling the service provider...
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Hello out there and good morning,

I just lost The Weather Channel. Anyone else? Not sure whether it's our cable provider or trouble in Atlanta, yet. Says "temporarily off air" & "please check back later." I hate calling the service provider...


good morning, I have the weather channel, and it works fine here
Quoting atmoaggie:
I say, El What ? 2009 so far is a very mild Nino.

1997:


2009:







This is a CP Warming
Yikes, appears I killed the blog. Oh, the Guilt.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Hello out there and good morning,

I just lost The Weather Channel. Anyone else? Not sure whether it's our cable provider or trouble in Atlanta, yet. Says "temporarily off air" & "please check back later." I hate calling the service provider...

TWC is on here --Comcast South Dade/FL
I don't know if any of you all have had the flu yet but, wow has it knocked me for a loop...I have been sick since last Friday. High fever and chest congestion.
Personally, I think the odd jet stream patterns have played more of a role in the shear department this season, not the El Nino.
Oh, I spoke too soon re "killing" the blog.
Good morning, TornadoD-, nice to "see" you. Thanks for the response, hope classes are going well. I guess I have to call RCN, our cable provider. I know TWC isn't great -- it has been SO Atlanta-centric these last few days. Would like to know about flooding elsewhere!

Off to sit on hold w/RCN. Take care all.

Quoting TampaSpin:
I don't know if any of you all have had the flu yet but, wow has it knocked me for a loop...I have been sick since last Friday. High fever and chest congestion.


I havent yet, actually, Ive never had the flu, hope you get to feeling better soon!

Scottsdale Dust Storm
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Personally, I think the odd jet stream patterns have played more of a role in the shear department this season, not the El Nino.


LOL......don't mean to laugh but, El Nino is part of the controlling mechanism of the Jet Stream.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Personally, I think the odd jet stream patterns have played more of a role in the shear department this season, not the El Nino.


and if this pattern continues, then we are in for a rough winter in much of the eastern half of the country.

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Oh, I spoke too soon re "killing" the blog.
Good morning, TornadoD-, nice to "see" you. Thanks for the response, hope classes are going well. I guess I have to call RCN, our cable provider. I know TWC isn't great -- it has been SO Atlanta-centric these last few days. Would like to know about flooding elsewhere!

Off to sit on hold w/RCN. Take care all.



nice to "see" you too :P classes have been alright so far, just hanging in there, have a good day!
Quoting TampaSpin:
I don't know if any of you all have had the flu yet but, wow has it knocked me for a loop...I have been sick since last Friday. High fever and chest congestion.


I haven't had the full blown flu since I was 12. I am 33 now and hoping to pass another year by without it. I've never gotten a flu shot before and am resisting the pushing from my wife to get one this year, I don't know what to do.
Quoting tornadodude:


and if this pattern continues, then we are in for a rough winter in much of the eastern half of the country.



nice to "see" you too :P classes have been alright so far, just hanging in there, have a good day!


Big snow for the NORTH East this winter if that would hold true.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Big snow for the NORTH East this winter if that would hold true.


Yeah, no doubt. Hopefully some here in northern Indiana too haha
Oh, one more quick comment b4 I go to phone. Thnx. re responses, and

TampaSpin: Do u know yet if your flu is H1N1 or seasonal flu? I think I'd best get shots; take my chances. Usually just get sore arm, hope new swine flu shots don't make people sick.

Hope u get over flu soonest.
Quoting tornadodude:


and if this pattern continues, then we are in for a rough winter in much of the eastern half of the country.



nice to "see" you too :P classes have been alright so far, just hanging in there, have a good day!


Just got an A on a intro to public policy test :P. Hopefully the A's are coming your way too.
Anyone up for a ride?



Six Flags Over Georgia

but on a serious note, my heart goes out those who have suffered during this flooding
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


I haven't had the full blown flu since I was 12. I am 33 now and hoping to pass another year by without it. I've never gotten a flu shot before and am resisting the pushing from my wife to get one this year, I don't know what to do.


I have a very depleted immune system. I did steriods when i played baseball and now have CMV because of it. Trust me, those that say that steriods is no big deal are not telling the truth or simply don't know. I can tell you all first hand.
Quoting ElConando:


Just got an A on a intro to public policy test :P. Hopefully the A's are coming your way too.


thats good to hear, and I think they are, kind of struggling a bit in my math, but it will work out
when I feel sick I usually take 1 vitamin c and echenecia. Works many a time just gotta take it within a couple of hours of getting sick, hit em while they are weak!!!
Alright guys, time to head to class, ill be back around ten thirty, see ya :)
Most of the year,the troughs have been in our area,so if this holds into the winter,its going to be a mighty cold winter up here and look out along the east coast.
Tampa..hope you feel better.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Taz, all due respect but, this El Nino is very weak. We've experienced 0 of the traditional effects of El Nino in SFL this summer. There haven't been any disturbances in the Caribbean thus far because they have all been re-curving.


The total shut down of the caribbean this season in my view is in responce to the moderate nino currently in place which i might add should contiune to intensify and peak in the coming months.
I am surprised the blog survives this feb er um I mean September.

What will we talk about in February? The great snow storm of 2010?

Not exactly tropical but...at least its not political or religious, unless we say the snow storm is a result of Man Made Global Cooling caused by Al gore being quiet.?
Quoting TampaSpin:


I have a very depleted immune system. I did steriods when i played baseball and now have CMV because of it. Trust me, those that say that steriods is no big deal are not telling the truth or simply don't know. I can tell you all first hand.
my son pitched for merritt island mustangs he got 2 letters. swear some of his competitors were juiced up get well
Usually during el nino years the Caribbean for the most part is shut down.
September 21, 2009
What's Different This 2009 Hurricane Season? Dr. Steve Lyons, Tropical Weather Expert
I lot of people have asked me why the hurricane season has been so quiet thus far in 2009. Most ask with their own answer included, namely, water temperatures must be pretty cold out there this year. That is NOT the reason, water temperatures are nearly everywhere warmer than average across the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico!

The "primary" answer, in my opinion, is found high up at around 35-45,000 feet in the upper portion of our tropical weather atmosphere. It is relatively simple to explain, but not to forecast! You see if we look at an average weather pattern in the upper atmosphere across the Atlantic, we find 3 primary features; the "Subtropical Ridge", the "Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough" (TUTT) and the "Subequatorial Ridge." These features move north, south, east or west in tandem with each other partly in response to mid-latitude west winds dancing in various directions. I show the average tropical upper atmosphere weather features in Figure 1.


FIGURE 1. Average position of upper level weather features in summer/early fall across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic. Black: non-tropical west winds. Yellow:Subtropical Ridge. Red: Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT). Green: Subequatorial Ridge

These three features are very important for hurricane formation, or lack of it. The Subtropical Ridge does usually have weak winds along its axis (one requirement for hurricane development) and hence is a low wind shear zone, but it is also associated with sinking air and is not typically favorable for hurricane development because it does not let disturbances "breathe" very well. The elongated TUTT, always found south of the Subtropical Ridge axis, often has strong upper lows embedded in it that do not favor hurricane development and the south side of the TUTT axis normally has strong west or southwest winds, thus causing high wind shear that is not favorable for hurricane development. The Subequatorial Ridge axis, always found south of the TUTT axis, does favor hurricane development because: 1) it has light winds along it's axis and hence low wind shear, and 2) it is a ventilating axis of high pressure that favors rain and thunderstorm development and hence also favors hurricane development and strengthening. It allows hurricanes to spin up and get strong enough to blast through less favorable upper winds in other locations once it leaves the Subequatorial Ridge axis.

This 2009 hurricane season, we have a very anomalous upper level pattern (Figure 2); the three primary upper level features are displaced well south of average. Partly because mid-latitude west winds are shifted south across the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic, those west winds have displaced the Subtropical Ridge to the south. The TUTT, south of the Subtropical Ridge, is correspondingly shifted south and the Subequatorial Ridge, normally south of the TUTT has been shifted so far south it has either been over northern South America or has been completely missing, yes, missing other than in a transient form, except in the eastern Atlantic Ocean near Africa this year.


Figure 2. As in Figure 1, except for summer/earlyfall 2009

The result is that so far in hurricane season 2009, most of the central and western Atlantic Ocean has been dominated by either sinking air from the Subtropical Ridge or fast winds west or southwest winds associated with the TUTT. The result is fewer hurricanes, more short-lived hurricanes and none that have made it west of 70W longitude.

There are at least three possible reasons for this unusual upper-air pattern, some or all of which may be to blame this 2009 hurricane season:

1) Unusual non-tropical weather that includes a southward extension of non-tropical west winds that have pushed our three important tropical upper-level weather features well south of normal and made it less favorable for hurricane development

2) El Nino, which usually causes a strong Subequatorial Ridge over the east and central Pacific and causes the Atlantic Subequatorial Ridge to be weak, displaced south and east of normal or missing completely

3) Below average showers and thunderstorms over southern Central America and northern South America that have not been able to form or maintain a significant Subequatorial Ridge because there is not enough heating from thunderstorms to make one or keep one in place

It appears that all three of these may be the cause for our lack of a Subequatorial Ridge during hurricane season 2009! It is not over yet, but it appears that hurricane development may be a serendipitous event for the remainder of the fall, at least in the western Atlantic where our Subequatorial Ridge is missing.
Quoting hurricane23:


The total shut down of the caribbean this season in my view is in responce to the moderate nino currently in place which i might add should contiune to intensify and peak in the coming months.



thank you thank you thank you 23
Quoting hurricane23:
Usually during el nino years the Caribbean for the most part is shut down.


thank you well said
Quoting leftovers:
my son pitched for merritt island mustangs he got 2 letters. swear some of his competitors were juiced up get well


Trust me when i say steriods was very commonly used item in the 80's & 90's! More so in the 90's as it really exploded. Funny how most just don't talk about it. I fear all the people who has taken it, what it will do to them in the future. I know what it has done to me.....and it is not any fun.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Trust me when i say steriods was very commonly used item in the 80's & 90's! More so in the 90's as it really exploded. Funny how most just don't talk about it. I fear all the people who has taken it, what it will do to them in the future. I know what it has done to me.....and it is not any fun.
what school did you play for and who is your pick to win the world series? cardinals that coach dominates
in my books hurricane season is done
Quoting Tazmanian:
in my books hurricane season is done


You might be right.. but I don't think so. There is to much stored up energy in the GOM.
three clumps of thunderstorms in one satelite view of the atlantic tropics development anywhere?
Quoting Orcasystems:


You might be right.. but I don't think so. There is to much stored up energy in the GOM.




the gulf is shuting down has well
855. Murko
Quoting Autistic2:
I am surprised the blog survives this feb er um I mean September.

What will we talk about in February? The great snow storm of 2010?

Not exactly tropical but...at least its not political or religious, unless we say the snow storm is a result of Man Made Global Cooling caused by Al gore being quiet.?


Don't you know that all global catastrophies are god's wrath? LOL j/k!
Model guidance recently continue to indicate a pretty hostile environment close to home in response to a deepening upper level trough. As this deepening takes place, strong northerly shear could become established across the Caribbean sea with further shear forming over the NW Caribbean in response to a divergent flow aloft about the base of the upper level trough and ridging to form over the Gulf of Mexico. models are also hinting at amplification of the Southern North America jet stream during the next few days thanks in part to what will become a strong cut-off upper low resulting from present Pacific Northwest energy. The presence of a stronger southern jet should further intensify shear across the southeast coast and perhaps across the northern half of the GOM.

All in all this season thus far has been a non issue for the U.S. and caribbean lets hope it continues. On a side note look for potential cool air masses to penetrate farther south in the coming weeks.
Hi again, got TWC back, maybe they'll report on something besides Atlanta flooding today, hope springs eternal.

Hope you all can help me with a blog admin. question, don't mean to bore you.

I usually use "show all" for the comments. A couple of times I have tried the "show average" to see what and what doesn't get screened. The question is, would the blog always show the poster's comments, that is, say, mine, even if my post was stupid/irrelevant/off-topic (like this one). Wow, I am having trouble wording this...some communications major.
In other words, I want to see if my posts are considered at all "worthy"...or being hidden. So far none have been hidden, but this one may be for being incoherent!
Thanks for any insight any of you can give me, and I beg your forgiveness in advance!
Australia dust storm turns sky over Sydney deadly red


Some fantastic pictures with this news article.
Convention is outstanding.
Morning Storm, Orca -
You guys have any opinion on Dr. Lyons explanation for the slow season?
Still going west.This could be trouble.
Has a lot of convention.
post 843

I don't think I've ever agreed with Dr. Lyons before, lol. Glad I'm not the only one who thinks El Nino is not driving the car.
Quoting mikatnight:
Morning Storm, Orca -
You guys have any opinion on Dr. Lyons explanation for the slow season?


Post 835
That dust storm in Austalia ia amazing and scary.
Awake--I have mine set on show average ---yours come thru.
Quoting mikatnight:
Morning Storm, Orca -
You guys have any opinion on Dr. Lyons explanation for the slow season?


Strange year of Shear. One would think if you didn't know the facts that we was in a strong El Nino summer and fall....that simply is not the case. But, yet the weather pattern has been setup to be the looks at as if we was in a strong El Nino position. Looking at things, it appears to be moving back to nuetral soon and possibly go toward a La Nina summer for next year IMO!
Quoting Tigerose:
Awake--I have mine set on show average ---yours come thru.


I just use the show all setting... and use the ignore function to turn off the ones I don't want to see.

You have to do something pretty drastic to get put on ignore.. or acting like a teen on to much sugar will do it also.
Quoting Tigerose:
Awake--I have mine set on show average ---yours come thru.

Thank you, Tigerose. Cool moniker, strong & beautiful (smile).
867: Orca

Thanks for the heads up. I try not to use the ignore feature either. Then with on 'average' the usual trolls aren't shown, the option is always there to click to see them. Sometimes that's amusement in itself.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I just use the show all setting... and use the ignore function to turn off the ones I don't want to see.

You have to do something pretty drastic to get put on ignore.. or act like a teen on to much sugar will do it also.

Many thanks, Orca, I always appreciate your opinions and counsel. (Hmm, pocky-lips comments not showing up, the system works!)
Quoting mikatnight:
Morning Storm, Orca -
You guys have any opinion on Dr. Lyons explanation for the slow season?


I was hoping StormW would answer that one for you.. you have just learnt a valuable lesson. There are maybe 5 people on this blog qualified to answer that question, and trust me.. I am not one of them :)

If I had a question like that, I would ask only two people who are on a lot and would know the answer... StormW and Weather456.


Quoting StormW:


Some of it is good.

However, rule out the El Nino (oceanic) portion. It has been what's happening in the atmosphere that has driven the oceanic side of the "El Nino".

I don't buy all of the Atlantic ridge being so far south either. It shifted further north beginning in August I believe, and looking at this, is centered fairly far north. That is what has allowed the ITCZ to come further north over the past 2 months.



From my analysis this season, the 3 items I find that have been with us mostly is:

1.) Persistent TUTT (providing shear)

2.) SAL during the first 2-2 1/2 months of the season

3.) Subsidence from the MJO (has been present more than upward motion).



StormW this might be a silly question but, in the years past with ElNino present has above average TUTT and MJO subsidence been present. I guess what i'm saying is ther any possible corealation at all with El Nino or purely a coincidence.
Thanks Storm, Tampa (get well soon), & Cane -
As Arte Johnson said, "Verrry in-te-rest-ing!"
CHALK ITUP GUYS LIKE I SAID A FEW WEEKS AGO HURRICANE SEASON FOR 2009 IS OVER!!!!!!!!
Still, valuable input from you Orca...thanks.
Quoting Tigerose:
867: Orca

Thanks for the heads up. I try not to use the ignore feature either. Then with on 'average' the usual trolls aren't shown, the option is always there to click to see them. Sometimes that's amusement in itself.


I have never put certain people on Ignore... because as soon as it slows down and everyone gets bored again.. he is the only source of conversation...and everyone starts to miss him and ask where he is :)


I won't even say who it is.. but the regulars will know who I am talking about immediately :)
i also hit the prediction right on the nose 6 named storms...everyone on this blog was predicting 13-20 storms this year...guys you dont have that action in a elnino year...guys i been studying these things for 25 years i know what the hell im talking about..
I think my 8-4-2 still has a chance...
Quoting StormW:


Thank you, Orca.


I give credit where credit is due :) You have proven your abilities on here time after time... and you still kicked the locals butt that Mexico trip.

You might also notice your the only one who gave him an answer based on factual information and data.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have never put certain people on Ignore... because as soon as it slows down and everyone gets bored again.. he is the only source of conversation...and everyone starts to miss him and ask where he is :)


I won't even say who it is.. but the regulars will know who I am talking about immediately :)


...and even some of us "irregulars" would miss aforesaid (Sir, sits-with-fishes :))
883. P451
Please disregard my rantings of last night - not a good week - but I do stand by what I said - some really need to consider cleaning up their acts. It's just a weather blog. Let us blog weather, okay? Keep the myspace'ish crap where it belongs.

It has come to the point where it appears it is done on purpose. If it is then those doing it really have their issues.

Meanwhile, two AOIs, covering five disturbances in total - loops from the U of Hawaii

12 Hour IR Loops: Satellite black outs are now at 5 hours length unfortunately.




Mighty strong wave that has rolled off, but its got lots of shear to deal with across the Atlantic...


no man its over shear will rule the monmth of october in the caribbean and gom...anything that tried to form will be ripped apart..the gom is clear the ssts will begin to fall this week with the cold fronts sched to come down on sunday and monday and a much stronger front next thursday...i just cant see one more storm guy its over the fat lady has sung for 2009..
877: Hmmm you don't have to 'say' who he is;-) I found this blog 2 years ago and gain much insight as to what might be brewing in the tropics. Just don't post much as I don't have that much to offer.

I can give a quick report on Fredex here on the south coast of NC. We had 3.80 inches of rain over about 36 hours. NO problems and the wind was even unusually calm.



P451, I have been watching those 3 for a couple days now.. I have been calling them the three stooges.

Quoting StormW:


There are other implications as well.


yes there are thats why I didn't say named storms :).
well storm even you predicted under what the nhc was going with..storm its going to be pretty hard to get to 11 but we will see what happens..we are going to be going through a period of strong shear for most of october and ssts cooler also especially in the gom..the cape verdes season is over also the sst off the coast have fallen beow 80 degrees..also there is still quite a bit of dust off the coast..
887. Tigerose 2:00 PM GMT on September 23, 2009

I can give a quick report on Fredex here on the south coast of NC. We had 3.80 inches of rain over about 36 hours. NO problems and the wind was even unusually calm.


That's actually very helpful/interesting to me, Tigerose; don't discount yourself.
891: Awake, thank you. Best I go back to just reading while I might be ahead.


Quoting Tigerose:
891: Awake, thank you. Best I go back to just reading while I might be ahead.



Me, too, thanks everyone.
nice call tampa you were one of the lower ones on here..it looks like storm w had 11 you 10 and myself 6 which we are at right now..we still have technically a little over 2 months to go in the 2009 season..it should be interesting..
Quoting ElConando:


yes there are thats why I didn't say named storms :).


Let It Snow.
Well, I gotta get my butt to work. Wishing everyone a good day. Might check back later if my wife hasn’t commandeered the pc for Facebook’s “Farmtown” (she has crops to harvest, fields to plow, seeds to plant…she’s very busy).

Remember Portlight.org is looking for donations to help victims of the flood.

Also

Do you know someone you would like to help financially, but don’t want them to know the money came from you?

Go to:
http://www.givinganon.org/

There is no fee. All the money you give goes to the person you want to help.

Catch ya’ll on the flip…

Mike
Negative NAO Index

* The negative NAO index phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low.


* The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway.


* They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe


* The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions.


* Greenland, however, will have milder winter temperatures
Quoting tacoman:
nice call tampa you were one of the lower ones on here..it looks like storm w had 11 you 10 and myself 6 which we are at right now..we still have technically a little over 2 months to go in the 2009 season..it should be interesting..


We may have 2 months less, with the return of an uplift in MJO in a couple of weeks....it might be some of the most busy upcoming times of the year. But, it will all be local bread systems if anything develops.......the way shear has been one would have to say the season is winding down sooner than normal....BUT, IT ONLY TAKES ONE FOR YOU OR ME to say it was a bad season.
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