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Heavy rains hit Florida coast; Jova and Irwin a threat to Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:01 PM GMT on October 08, 2011

A large low pressure system with heavy rain is developing this morning over Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. The counter-clockwise flow around this low is bringing strong winds and heavy rains to much of the Florida coast. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts are already in excess of four inches along a stretch of Florida coast from West Palm Beach to Daytona Beach. Much of the region, including Cocoa Beach, is under a flood watch, high surf advisories, and a high wind watch for wind gusts of 45 - 55 mph. These these conditions will spread northwards to Georgia by Sunday, and South Carolina by Monday. I doubt that this storm will acquire enough organization to evolve into a subtropical storm that gets a name, based on the latest model output, and the fact that the storm's center may well be over the state of Florida. NHC is currently giving this storm a 20% chance of becoming a named tropical or subtropical storm by Monday morning. This is a large, diffuse system that will bring strong winds and heavy rains to a large area of the Southeast U.S. coast, regardless of the exact center location. Since the storm is going to get its start as a cold-cored upper-level low pressure system with some dry air aloft, it will not be able to intensify quickly.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Melbourne, Florida radar as of Saturday morning.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Thursday, October 12, 2011. The storm system affecting Florida this weekend is expected to bring up to 7 inches of rain along the coast. Heavy rains associated with a strong trough of low pressure are also expected to dump 4 - 6 inches of rain over drought-stricken areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.


Heavy rain event coming for drought-stricken regions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas
A strong low pressure system is expected to track across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles this weekend, bringing the heaviest rains of the year to drought-stricken portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas, including Abilene, where a flash flood watch is posted today. Rainfall in this region has been 13 - 20 inches below normal for the year; Lubbock, Texas has had just 3 inches of rain this year, compared to a normal of 16 inches. Rainfall amount of 1 - 4 inches will be common in the region over the weekend, and may be able to reduce drought conditions from the highest level (exceptional) to the second highest level (extreme.) However, the heaviest rains will stay confined to the western half of Texas, and Texas's major cities such as Houston will see very little rain over the weekend.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Hurricane Irwin and Tropical Storm Jova yesterday afternoon over the East Pacific.

Jova and Irwin: trouble for Mexico's Eastern Pacific coast
In the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico, Tropical Storm Jova continues to slowly intensify. Jova will turn north and then northeast over the weekend as a strong trough of low pressure dives southward over northern Mexico. The computer models have come into better agreement on the track of Jova, with the region of coast centered on Manzanillo at greatest risk of a strike. Jova is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and shear is predicted to stay in the low to moderate range between now and landfall. Ocean temperatures are warm, 28 - 29°C, but the warm waters do not extend to great depth, limiting Jova's potential for rapid intensification. The upper atmosphere is also not cold enough to give Jova the kind of instability typically needed for rapid intensification. Nonetheless, both the GFDL and HWRF models predict Jova will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane before landfall on Tuesday on the Mexican coast. The official NHC forecast is less aggressive, bringing Jova to Category 2 strength, which is probably reasonable, given the uncertainties regarding the possible interference from Hurricane Irwin to its west, and the fact that several other of our intensity models show very little strengthening. Regardless of Jova's strength at landfall, the storm will bring very heavy rains to the Mexican coast capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Monday.

Once Jova has made landfall, Mexico needs to concern itself with Hurricane Irwin, farther to the west. Irwin will also be turned north and then northeast towards the coast of Mexico this weekend by the same trough of low pressure expected to affect Jova. The longer range computer forecast models show Irwin could make landfall as a hurricane on the Mexican coast late next week, along the same stretch of coast Jova will affect. If this verifies, the one-two punch of heavy rains from two tropical cyclones within a week could cause a devastating flood situation along the Mexican coast. However, the track forecast for Irwin has a higher degree of uncertainty than usual, and Baja is also at risk from this storm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting weatherbro:


That's the ULL the surface one should form further east on Monday.


I doubt it will form that far east. I'm going to go for FL straits to 100 SW of Ft Myers. Even the 18Z GFS has jumped on the GOM formation bandwagon instead of the east coast story it's been stuck on the last few days.
Finally very quiet in my part of Port St. Lucie. Rain off and on all day. Big rain and wind around 6pm. Lots of rain to the north, west and south. Happy to have in quiet for now. I think north of PSL got way too much rain today..Daytona, Orlando..the radar stayed red and yellow all day. Hope you all up there are ok.
Quoting Hurricanes12:
How many days did Phillipe last?

16.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
any changes on irwin and jova?

Irwin down to 50kts
Jova is the same.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
any changes on irwin and jova?


ATCF says:

Irwin weakens to 50kt and 4 mb rises.

No intensity change in Jova.
Just had a nice 39.6 MPH Gust in North Miami-Dade.
POSS T.C.F.A
XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
24.85N/79.23W
Quoting Skyepony:
My backyard..


That wind speed is pretty close to how it went on here in Jensen too. Nice weather station stuff, thanks.
POSS T.C.F.A
XX/AOI/XXL
MARK (REVISED)
24.85N/80.23W
I kind of want to see this thing go into the eastern GOM to solve this:



Would rather wish it to TX, but it seems kinda out of the question in this scenario.

Good Evening.

Hot and dry day here at 11n 61w, Trinidad.
But the Airport (enter PIARCO in the search box top of this page, check 'history') says that they recorded a windspeed of 148 MPH at some stage.
Funny, I never felt a thing....

Looking at an area of cloud in the ITCZ east of here, and thinking we will get some showers starting tomorrow evening.
Could use some of that.
But please, no 8" in 2 days like some of you FLA people are getting.
That would kill people down here if that fell in the Mountains....
Shouldn't the Bahamas blob be an invest? Would be nice to see some spaghetti models
Forecast for eastern NC... Morehead City NWS

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SATURDAY...WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING A PATTERN SHIFT FROM THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER MIDWEEK. THAT MUCH IS CERTAIN...BUT A GOOD BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS EXISTS BETWEEN THE FCST MODELS. THE KEY PLAYER IN THE FCST WILL BE A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL AND
EVENTUALLY ALONG OR OFF THE NC COAST. TIMING OF AND EXACT TRACK THAT THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AND CONFIDENCE IN EXACT DETAILS REMAINS LOW. BASICALLY FOLLOWED A
MIXTURE OF GFS/SREF THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN STUCK WITH HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS A BLEND OF GFS/GEFS MEAN AND ECMWF/12ZECMWF MEAN. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HPC TO DETERMINE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MIXING...BLENDING...AND ADDING SOME
MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO COME TO A CONSENSUS WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE BEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN LOW TRACK AND EVOLVING TROUGH DIFFICULT TO GET TOO SPECIFIC ON BEST TIMING.
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR HIGHS AND A BIT ABOVE MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
COULD COVER INCREASES.
Quoting trey33:


Time to get out the Snuggie!



Thanks to your comment, now I know what is a Snuggie !!!
Maybe this will help GA (and TX of course).
Quoting kipperedherring:
Weatherbro! Good to see you back! I miss when you used to post your updates. "More unusual October weather coming" was a classic. I still re-read it. When are you going back to that, we need you bro!


I'll think about it(been busy lately). Thanks.
New invest? Mid Atl... could also be another Invest....



An alert from the CritterCasting System:

We have multiple moths, dragonflies, geckos and a handful of basilisks hiding out on our patio.
Ants are beginning to appear.

Also, I'm developing the mother-of-all sinus headaches.

I'm guessing pressure is dropping?





Pretty Obvious where the low is setting up. Should be enough info to generate an invest soon. Not to many times have I seen an orange circle without an invest attached to it. Rather complicated situation here however. Seems we've found "Waldo".
Looking at the map on post #517. The expectation for rainfall amounts here on the West Coast are around an inch or so. Even with the low expected to move up the Eastern GOM, they are forecasting the rain shield to be well to the East.
525. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Good Evening.

Hot and dry day here at 11n 61w, Trinidad.
But the Airport (enter PIARCO in the search box top of this page, check 'history') says that they recorded a windspeed of 148 MPH at some stage.
Funny, I never felt a thing....

Looking at an area of cloud in the ITCZ east of here, and thinking we will get some showers starting tomorrow evening.
Could use some of that.
But please, no 8" in 2 days like some of you FLA people are getting.
That would kill people down here if that fell in the Mountains....

Hey..yup its going to get nasty again starting tomorrow and continuing for at least the next 7 days.
Where is this low expected to form/go?
Quoting Hurricanes12:
Where is this low expected to form/go?


Just off SW Florida in the GOM is likely!
So what should I be expecting in the Pinellas area, if this system does form in the Gulf?
Another shot of "Waldo" from the NWS.

NOAA sent this out yesterday..

Details/Specifics of Change: On December 6, 2011 GOES-15 is scheduled to replace GOES-11 as the GOES-West operational spacecraft and GOES-15 GVAR will begin to flow through GOES-11 communication links. On December 14, 2011 GOES-15 GVAR will flow directly through GOES-15 communication links and GOES-11 will be decommissioned. A more detailed transition timeline is provided below. Characteristics of the Imager and Sounder are similar from GOES-11 to GOES-15; however, there are some differences:
• Increased spatial resolution to 4 km for all IR bands
• New 13.3 um band
• No 12 um on the imager
• GVAR format is going from GVAR format 1 to GVAR format 3 to support 4 km band 6
• Ground equipment may require adjustments to satellite ID, but the transition timeline and plans are intended to minimize disruptions to users who acquire the GOES-15 GVAR signal via a ground antenna.
Transition Timeline:
• August 22, 2011. GOES-15 began executing GOES-West frames (no Rapid (RSO), Super Rapid (SRSO) and the Full Disk (FD) frames) to accommodate advanced user testing of GOES-15 data.
• September 1, 2011 through October 15, 2011 is the GOES-15 Fall eclipse season for 2011.
• October 18, 2011 at 0321 UTC. GOES-15 will begin a westward drift from 89.5 degrees West to 135 degrees West at a rate ~ 0.78 degrees/day.
• December 1, 2011. A GOES-15 drift rate adjustment maneuver will be performed.
• December 6, 2011. As GOES-15 approaches 129 degrees West, the GOES-15 transition to GOES-West will occur. GOES-15 data will flow through GOES-11 communication links, thus, GOES-15 data becomes operational but is received through the GOES-11 downlink. In other words, the GOES-15 GVAR data are relayed through GOES-11. Users pointing to GOES-11 will start receiving GOES-15 data. Ancillary communication services (DCS/LRIT/EMWIN/SAR) will remain on GOES-11. Users do not re-point antennae. At this point GOES-15 data are considered operational, but should significant problems occur, GOES-11 data can be reestablished quickly.
• December 14, 2011. A GOES-15 stop maneuver will be performed. The GOES-11 signal is turned off and GOES-15 data are acquired directly from GOES-15. GOES-15 GVAR data will be relayed through GOES-15. Ancillary communication services (DCS/LRIT/EMWIN/SAR) will switch from GOES-11 to GOES-15.
• December 15, 2011. Pending successful arrival of GOES-15 at 135 degrees West, GOES-11 will perform de-orbit maneuvers, and GOES-11 will be decommissioned.
(Says in boring voice.)Oh look what's that by Florida?.eh nothing really exciting.Moving along now.
Quoting tampahurricane:
So what should I be expecting in the Pinellas area, if this system does form in the Gulf?



Don't believe much of any thing.......Maybe some Coastal flooding when it moves North with a little wind and a lot more Rain.
I'm back from another telescopic observing session. While looking at Jupiter, which by the way had its brown bands clearly visible on its milky white disk and all four satellites, I caught a glimpse of a meteor flashing by. Its direction, clearly from north to south, confirms it as a Draconid, a meteor shower that likely peaked close to 600 per hour earlier today, before subsiding to about 30 per hour. Its magnitude was about +4, brighter than any of Jupiter's moons. This was a rather interesting session, and the gibbous moon was rather bright, so I had no time to capture Comet Garradd, currently about mag. +8 north of Ophiuchius.
535. afj3
Hi All. Why does this Florida system not have an invest status?
Quoting afj3:
Hi All. Why does this Florida system not have an invest status?



Because there really is nothing there at all yet as a Tropical entity!
537. Gorty
Quoting afj3:
Hi All. Why does this Florida system not have an invest status?


Probably because it is a mess right now.
538. afj3
Quoting TampaSpin:



Because there really is nothing there at all yet as a Tropical entity!

I know but they are giving it a percentage chance on in their outlook.
539. Gorty
Quoting sunlinepr:
New invest? Mid Atl... could also be another Invest....





Hmm looks interesting. It will have to pull away from the ITCZ first but it already looks healthy... maybe Rina by FL and then (whatever the S storm is) for the one out in the mid-atl?
Evening all.
Quoting afj3:
Hi All. Why does this Florida system not have an invest status?
Because there isn't sufficient consolidation with this system to initiate model runs. Once we get some sort of low form, they will declare an invest and models will be initiated.
Quoting afj3:

I know but they are giving it a percentage chance on in their outlook.


This has happened often this year as well.
543. Gorty
Anyone know when the MJO will favor the ATL again?
There is no defining term to give something an invest status. The NRL will tag it as 93L whenever they want too. There is no clear cut definition for an invest, they've declared stuff overland as invests for example.
Irwin, Jova, and Kenneth. Three in a row... Irwin will have some problems as long as his big sister, Jova, keeps the conditions hostile. Kenneth will be a short-lived Tropical storm that will head up into Mexico, and could aid in the formation of our second storm of October(After the Sub-tropical system.)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
There is no defining term to give something an invest status. The NRL will tag it as 93L whenever they want too. There is no clear cut definition for an invest, they've declared stuff overland as invests for example.


You are 100% correct my friend as that and only what you stated is how an Invest is declared. Its just when someone wants to declare one. Nice job Teddy.
I just want a snowey winter is all.I hope I get one.Seeing the snow fall outside your window is beautiful to look at(Sorry you southern Floridians).Of course not like the 09-10 winter..but enough snow to satisfy.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
There is no defining term to give something an invest status. The NRL will tag it as 93L whenever they want too. There is no clear cut definition for an invest, they've declared stuff overland as invests for example.
there really is no "center" to all that mess therefore now invest yet. once we get something consaladating a little they will call it 93L. wont be anything serious just bad condtions for florida and the SE and very windy too. the most it could be is a 50mph ts is what im thinking. our reall danger is what lies in the carribean next week
549. afj3
Quoting TampaSpin:


You are 100% correct my friend as that and only what you stated is how an Invest is declared. Its just when someone wants to declare one. Nice job Teddy.

Thank you all! The rain is nice, tho, tropical or not....
550. Gorty
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
there really is no "center" to all that mess therefore now invest yet. once we get something consaladating a little they will call it 93L. wont be anything serious just bad condtions for florida and the SE and very windy too. the most it could be is a 50mph ts is what im thinking. our reall danger is what lies in the carribean next week


The carribean one could be the mid-atl system that looks good already.
551. afj3
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
there really is no "center" to all that mess therefore now invest yet. once we get something consaladating a little they will call it 93L. wont be anything serious just bad condtions for florida and the SE and very windy too. the most it could be is a 50mph ts is what im thinking. our reall danger is what lies in the carribean next week

Hi! What's happening in the Carib next week?
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
there really is no "center" to all that mess therefore now invest yet. once we get something consaladating a little they will call it 93L. wont be anything serious just bad condtions for florida and the SE and very windy too. the most it could be is a 50mph ts is what im thinking. our reall danger is what lies in the carribean next week


lack of a center is not a reason either


or else the outlook would never say this like a trough of low pressure or a tropical wave. sometimes those do not have well defined centers, but still show up on the TWO and get invest status
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
there really is no "center" to all that mess therefore now invest yet. once we get something consaladating a little they will call it 93L. wont be anything serious just bad condtions for florida and the SE and very windy too. the most it could be is a 50mph ts is what im thinking. our reall danger is what lies in the carribean next week


Teddy gave the proper way an Invest is declared.....its simply whenever one decides to declare one......heck i have seen an Invest declared while on the Coast of Africa and then it fades away.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
There is no defining term to give something an invest status. The NRL will tag it as 93L whenever they want too. There is no clear cut definition for an invest, they've declared stuff overland as invests for example.

Wouldn't being a shipping hazard make an area invest worthy?

Btw, I'm watching the Bathurst 1000(Live on Speed Channel USA) and there is a weather change on the way which could make things interesting.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Teddy gave the proper way an Invest is declared.....its simply whenever one decides to declare one......heck i have seen an Invest declared while on the Coast of Africa and then it fades away.
well i cant control what the nhc does :P but as of now that mess isnt quite lookin invest worth although if it consolidates a little more i dont see why it wouldnt
Quoting Gorty:


Hmm looks interesting. It will have to pull away from the ITCZ first but it already looks healthy... maybe Rina by FL and then (whatever the S storm is) for the one out in the mid-atl?


Then that will be Sean...

(THE 2011 LIST OF ATLANTIC STORM NAMES : Arlene Bret Cindy Don (replaces Dennis) Emily Franklin Gert Harvey Irene Jose Katia (replaces Katrina) Lee Maria Nate Ophelia Philippe Rina (replaces Rita) Sean (replaces Stan) Tammy Vince Whitney (replaces Wilma))
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Irwin, Jova, and Kenneth. Three in a row... Irwin will have some problems as long as his big sister, Jova, keeps the conditions hostile. Kenneth will be a short-lived Tropical storm that will head up into Mexico, and could aid in the formation of our second storm of October(After the Sub-tropical system.)



Irwin too me seems vary weak wind shear has really done a good job on it am not even sure if it will make it other 24hrs
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
well i cant control what the nhc does :P but as of now that mess isnt quite lookin invest worth although if it consolidates a little more i dont see why it wouldnt


Again it could be declared an Invest now if someone decides to Declare it an Invest.....there is NO true yes this or that stuff in order for an Invest to be declared.
Models don't show that Twave yet.... Maybe it will disipate by tomorow....

560. Gorty
Quoting sunlinepr:


Nice looking system so far. Should be interesting to see what it does when it totally clears the ITCZ.
Quoting Gorty:


Nice looking system so far. Should be interesting to see what it does when it totally clears the ITCZ.


There is not much of a spin there are all yet...

562. Gorty
Quoting TampaSpin:


There is not much of a spin there are all yet...



Just like 99% of all pre TCs :p
563. afj3

With a clear cut consolidating center, I would expect an invest soon. A lot has been hashed out today and one can clearly tag a center at this point. 6 hours ago? no way.
I have a twitter account if anyone wants to follow my quick updates on the storms.
Key West
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation

Range 248 NMI

567. afj3
Hey! How do you that? Post an animated image? Thank you!!!!
Quoting Patrap:
Key West
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation

Range 248 NMI


Pull up the radar view,,use the "Save this Image" below it, post in the comment section via the "image" button, preview, post.


Easy.
Easy to see just West of Andros Island, Bahamas ATM.

Consolidation in the Bahamas as a nice blob of convection forms along with few banding features. An Invest is coming soon.

All the rain is dying out as it moves into Tampa Bay just as I suspected it to...

Oh well, we have had a lot of rain this year, above normal, so I can't complain. It is strange how Polk County has been getting heavy rain for hours and yet it collapses on its way over here. I just have seen this before with this type of event so I expected it.
573. Gorty
Another African wave? Though it might get sheared apart by pre-sean.
He's dead! At long last!

...PHILIPPE IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

Actually I kinda liked Philippe. He was a cool guy. Didn't hurt anybody...
575. afj3

My you can look me up on Twitter @ TylerJStanfield
577. afj3

Quoting Patrap:
Pull up the radar view,,use the "Save this Image" below it, post in the comment section via the "image" button, preview, post.


Easy.
I did it!!!! Thanks!
..anytime.

who let the dogs out?!


580. Gorty
Quoting reedzone:
Consolidation in the Bahamas as a nice blob of convection forms along with few banding features. An Invest is coming soon.



imo, pre-sean is looking better (mid-atl) than pre-rina (by FL)
581. Gorty
Here is pre-sean guys, this is what I am seeing and look by Africa...

Link

Once pre-sean leaves the ITCZ, the atmos. is favorable for development (for the dry air part at least)
u guys think the rain over texas put a dent in the drought?
Quoting Chicklit:
who let the dogs out?!

Woof Woof LOL.

Quoting Gorty:


imo, pre-sean is looking better (mid-atl) than pre-rina (by FL)

Wouldn't it be funny is it was Rina in the Mid ATl and Sean off Fla.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
u guys think the rain over texas put a dent in the drought?

maybe dent like softball size hail but not as much as everyone hopes for.
585. Gorty
Quoting AussieStorm:

Woof Woof LOL.


Wouldn't it be funny is it was Rina in the Mid ATl and Sean off Fla.


Haha it will be but the mid-atl one needs a a few more days so I am thinking that one will be sean but who knows, 2011 packed surprises with each storm it seemed.
Quoting wxgeek723:
He's dead! At long last!

...PHILIPPE IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

Actually I kinda liked Philippe. He was a cool guy. Didn't hurt anybody...
He will be missed.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Woof Woof LOL.


Wouldn't it be funny is it was Rina in the Mid ATl and Sean off Fla.


don't think so from this map


bye bye Phillipe!
Quoting reedzone:
Consolidation in the Bahamas as a nice blob of convection forms along with few banding features. An Invest is coming soon.



That deep convection in the Bahamas is no where near the low center though, the developing low center is southeast of Miami just north of the Cuban Coast, there is also a low center developing off the Southwest Florida Coast, and a deeper Mid-level feature stacked almost above it.
589. Gorty
Quoting Chicklit:


don't think so from this map


It will be a few days still assuming it will dodge South America.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
u guys think the rain over texas put a dent in the drought?


That's the hope..

Looks like winter for Texas though will be extremely dry though.
I find it interesting that all these tropical storms for the most part are now going from west to east???
What happened to the normal east to west movement for these tropical storms???
Quoting AussieStorm:

Wouldn't being a shipping hazard make an area invest worthy?

Btw, I'm watching the Bathurst 1000(Live on Speed Channel USA) and there is a weather change on the way which could make things interesting.
As I understand, "Invest" is simply a shortening of investigate which means that a certain protocol of data collection is begun. It could be because someone is working on an algorithm thinks that this set of atmospheric conditions would be useful. It has nothing to do with the probability the system may develop into a tropical storm. If this is incorrect please enlighten me.
Quoting reedzone:
Consolidation in the Bahamas as a nice blob of convection forms along with few banding features. An Invest is coming soon.




wind shear is vary high so it may look nic the low may be 20 too 100 ms a way
Quoting Tazmanian:



wind shear is vary high so it may look nic the low may be 20 too 100 ms a way


Exactly, that's what makes it Subtropical. It doesn't feel like a Nor'easter here, it's warm and muggy with bouts of rain/wind, like a Tropical System. Convection is consolidating well east of the supposed LLC, southeast of Florida. I think we'll have a better picture of where this is going by tomorrow.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
u guys think the rain over texas put a dent in the drought?
"Rainfall amount of 1 - 4 inches will be common in the region over the weekend, and may be able to reduce drought conditions from the highest level (exceptional) to the second highest level (extreme.) However, the heaviest rains will stay confined to the western half of Texas, and Texas's major cities such as Houston will see very little rain over the weekend."

Guess Who? Guess Where?
Quoting reedzone:


Exactly, that's what makes it Subtropical. It doesn't feel like a Nor'easter here, it's warm and muggy with bouts of rain/wind, like a Tropical System. Convection is consolidating well east of the supposed LLC, southeast of Florida. I think we'll have a better picture of where this is going by tomorrow.



yup
I just finished a blog on the tropics if anyone wants to read it.

Unfortunately, I won't be sticking around, as I have some work to do.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
As I understand, "Invest" is simply a shortening of investigate which means that a certain protocol of data collection is begun. It could be because someone is working on an algorithm thinks that this set of atmospheric conditions would be useful. It has nothing to do with the probability the system may develop into a tropical storm. If this is incorrect please enlighten me.

I'm thinking it might be a shipping hazard which might warrant it being designated an invest, Navy(NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division) is mainly for shipping is it not?

Note, we lost another. From NASA: The AMSR-E antenna stopped spinning at 0726GMT Oct 4, most likely due to aging lubricant in the mechanism. AMSR-E is currently not producing any data.
599. DFWjc
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's the hope..

Looks like winter for Texas though will be extremely dry though.


Don't think it's going to be dry for right now in North and West Texas...2nd rain out for the ALCS in Arlington
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
"Rainfall amount of 1 - 4 inches will be common in the region over the weekend, and may be able to reduce drought conditions from the highest level (exceptional) to the second highest level (extreme.) However, the heaviest rains will stay confined to the western half of Texas, and Texas's major cities such as Houston will see very little rain over the weekend."

Guess Who? Guess Where?

Me ME ME, I Know I Know, LOL

Spitting with rain at the Bathurst 1000, 58 laps of the 161 to go.
601. DFWjc
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
u guys think the rain over texas put a dent in the drought?


Only if we keep getting these 3 days raining spells for more than an hour at a time... My place here in North Richland Hills, Tx got a decent amount of rain, but not enough to take us off a Level 2 water restriction.
Quoting reedzone:


Exactly, that's what makes it Subtropical. It doesn't feel like a Nor'easter here, it's warm and muggy with bouts of rain/wind, like a Tropical System. Convection is consolidating well east of the supposed LLC, southeast of Florida. I think we'll have a better picture of where this is going by tomorrow.


The center is not where the convection is located, look at the vort not convection. It does have a chance to be named as a weak subtropical system, but it probably won't last long because its moving northwest toward Southeast Florida anyway.

Just wait, you'll see :)

It has actually gotten quite cold after rainfall, indicating the colder air aloft and the cold core nature of this complex low pressure. The system may have high moisture and heavy rainfall. But Nor' Easters can be the same way, that doesn't make them tropical. They can have 2 inch PWATS and heavy rain squalls that produce many inches. This system scream much more Nor Easter than tropical cyclone.

However, because water is warm around the developing low level center, a subtropical storm certainly can't be ruled out, but I won't be shocked if its never named either.
Quoting Jedkins01:


The center is not where the convection is located, look at the vort not convection. This system probably won't be named, it does have a chance to be named as a weak subtropical system, but it won't last long because its moving northwest toward Southeast Florida anyway.

Just wait, you'll see :)

It has actually gotten quite cold after rainfall, indicating the colder air aloft and the cold core nature of this complex low pressure. The system may have high moisture and heavy rainfall. But Nor' Easters can be the same way, that doesn't make them tropical. They can have 2 inch PWATS and heavy rain squalls that produce many inches. This system scream much more Nor Easter than tropical cyclone.

However, because water is warm around the developing low level center, a subtropical storm certainly can't be ruled out, but I won't be shocked if its never named either.
In Central Palm Beach County today, where rainfall was very limited, the winds were brisk and at times gusting well into the 30s and as you said, you could feel the coolness.
the center is south of kw,suprised no 93l yet
I'd look for the center to develop from the broad low in the Florida Bay, it would be currently centered a little north of the Dry Tortugas.
Quoting hunkerdown:
In Central Palm Beach County today, where rainfall was very limited, the winds were brisk and at times gusting well into the 30s and as you said, you could feel the coolness.


Yeah this is definitely no tropical system, this has baroclinic written all over it. But, waters are warm enough for the low level circulation that a subtropical storm is possible. But still, its no big deal.

The bottom line is whether it becomes a named subtropical system or not the impacts will be the same, more heavy rain and gusty winds in Florida.
with a sheered mlc offshore charlotte harbor,any surface low further south between kw and cuba imo
with a sheered mlc offshore charlotte harbor,any surface low further south between kw and cuba imo
That's where I see it also.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I'd look for the center to develop from the broad low in the Florida Bay, it would be currently centered a little north of the Dry Tortugas.
Quoting DFWjc:


Only if we keep getting these 3 days raining spells for more than an hour at a time... My place here in North Richland Hills, Tx got a decent amount of rain, but not enough to take us off a Level 2 water restriction.
My ground here in D.C is still saturated.I almost fell into the freaking ground .So if it get's a little dry here I won't be complaining.
Just a broad LP with many vortices setting up to bring the SE plenty of rain

I think this may pull a name by Monday if it can organize well. Convection blowing up away from the suspected LLC shows this is Subtropical. Love these types of systems.
Final check on the rain gauge for the 24 hours of October 8, 2011 gives a total rain accumulation of 8.74 inches for my Satellite Beach location on the space coast barrier island.
hey guys I see two areas that a low could be developing via 850 vort and sat loops area #1 between Cuba Fl and W Bahamas near 25N 78W area #2 SW Caribbean near 13N 75W
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
I'm back from another telescopic observing session. While looking at Jupiter, which by the way had its brown bands clearly visible on its milky white disk and all four satellites, I caught a glimpse of a meteor flashing by. Its direction, clearly from north to south, confirms it as a Draconid, a meteor shower that likely peaked close to 600 per hour earlier today, before subsiding to about 30 per hour. Its magnitude was about +4, brighter than any of Jupiter's moons. This was a rather interesting session, and the gibbous moon was rather bright, so I had no time to capture Comet Garradd, currently about mag. +8 north of Ophiuchius.


What are the specs on the telescope you are using? I have a 4.5 in reflector - fine for Jupiter's moons (at least the bigger ones) but not so great for resolving features in Jupiter's atmosphere.

Levi made a good call a few weeks ago, he deserves some props.
Is anyone watching the Bathurst 1000 on Speed? Massive accident at turn 2, car on fire, i'm screaming at the tv saying get out of the car, get out of the car, few seconds later he got out and is all fine.

Temps have dropped 2C in the last hour here in Sydney, clouds have come over and the sun is gone.
Getting nasty here in Jupiter tonight after a day of Nuttin.

FYI, center is just west of Andros Island, Bahamas folks.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Getting nasty here in Jupiter tonight after a day of Nuttin.

FYI, center is just west of Andros Island, Bahamas folks.
The center is where everyone has it inside their own head.....lol

I have felt all along that this system would NOT become a tropical storm. A subtropical storm?

No.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Is anyone watching the Bathurst 1000 on Speed? Massive accident at turn 2, car on fire, i'm screaming at the tv saying get out of the car, get out of the car, few seconds later he got out and is all fine.

Temps have dropped 2C in the last hour here in Sydney, clouds have come over and the sun is gone.
Aussie..you are bringing back some memories of one Saturday a year, BBQ and a keg on tap, watching the 1000 ( circa mid 70's )........
Quoting Abacosurf:
The center is where everyone has it inside their own head.....lol

+1,multilple vorticies,one might become dominant,only .time will tel!
It's kind of looking more and more as though Mexico would only have one storm to worry about. Jova was much too big for Irwin even when he was stronger on paper, and seems to be getting even bigger by gobbling the poor guy up. If Irwin doesn't slow down, he might not survive much longer.

And that mess by Florida seems to be getting a rather tropical/subtropical swirl to it. I guess perhaps we may get a Matthew/Nicole from it? And not only that, but thereseems to be some organized-looking convection in the Carribean, which could be trouble. And that gigantic wave in the southeast Atlantic looks like it could produce a surprise or two. I guess the season's got a few tricks left up its sleeve.

Goodbye Philippe! You had quite the perilous journey, but you gave us quite a thrill nonetheless (not as much as your older sister Ophelia, of course, that girl was went from so not to soooooo hot).

At the moment I see one Dominant Circulation, call me crazy...

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
At the moment I see one Dominant Circulation, call me crazy...

,couple lumps their
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SAT 08 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCOPD)
VALID 09/1100Z to 10/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-130

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
INTO SUSPECT AREA NEAR SOUTH FL.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS.
1. FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70---TROPICAL STORM JOVA
A. 09/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0110E JOVA
C. 09/1200Z
D. 16.2N AND 108.0W
E. 09/1700Z TO 09/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX TROPICAL STORM JOVA 10/1800Z
10/1800z near 17.5N and 108W. WVW
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
At the moment I see one Dominant Circulation, call me crazy...



No, you're not crazy, its just that earlier images showed 2 dominant areas, but this more recent image suggests there is one dominant consolidation of vort occurring Southeast of Miami, this should move slowly northwest overnight.

I'm trying to figure out why there actually isn't a low on the map yet, there is plenty of vorticity, and pressures have dropped quite a bit from earlier in those areas. Yes actual pressure readings may appear rather high but its relative because of the very high pressures to the north.
Quoting Jedkins01:


No, you're not crazy, its just that earlier images showed 2 dominant areas, but this more recent image suggests there is one dominant consolidation of vort occurring Southeast of Miami, this should move slowly northwest overnight.

I'm trying to figure out why there actually isn't a low on the map yet, there is plenty of vorticity, and pressures have dropped quite a bit from earlier in those areas. Yes high pressure may appear rather high but its relative because of the very high pressures to the north.



NHC seems to be pulling back.

629. JLPR2
I have been really quiet the past two days. XD

That area in the Caribbean with the cold cloud tops looks rather healthy.



Quoting ProgressivePulse:



NHC seems to be pulling back.



Probably because the chances of it actually acquiring any tropical characteristics are decreasing. This system as of now is baroclinic in nature, and strong shear will be induced by the the deepening mid to upper low off the SW Florida coast.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Probably because the chances of it actually acquiring any tropical characteristics are decreasing. This system as of now is baroclinic in nature, and strong shear will be induced by the the deepening mid to upper low off the SW Florida coast.




See the dry air coming in as well.

The multiple vorticity does look to be consolidating some but looking at the surface obs near both doesn't look like a single low area yet since they both are still lower than surrounding areas..
Looks like it's organizing, looks Subtropical to me. Tomorrow will tell where this is going.

MLB NWS put a big L on the lower right of the graphicast (this image will change as it updates)
Reedzone.......zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Ok folks, this is what we have. We have a subtropical trough of low pressure extending from the bahamas westward to the SE GOM. A LLC isn't forming yet. Lowest pressures right now are just south of the keys near 24N and 80.8W. There will be a broad low pressure system forming SW of Naples and north of Key west later on Sunday into Sunday night. By later on Monday this will merge with the cut off low around 26.5-27.5 N and 84-85W. The flow will become more SWerly Monday thru Weds and push the subtropical system NE towards the west coast of Florida from Tampa to the Big Bend. Most of the weather will be on the east side.
What does this all mean really? Wet weather with rainfall amounts of 5-8 inches along the east coast of Florida from Saturday thru Sunday. Interior will see lesser amounts but still could be around 3-5 inches by Sunday night. West coast around 2-4 inches. Monday will probably see a decrease in the rainfall as the system is further west off Florida then picking up again with possible severe weather in Western Florida from Sarasota northward to the Big Bend on Tues-Weds. Winds will be 20-35mph on Sunday through S,C Florida with gusts near 50-60mph in isolated squall cells.
As for this becoming a named Storm.. its hard to tell. Too early to know this. Even if it does, the main impact will be Rain and Isolated Tornados on Tues-Wed before the storm makes landfall.
Has anyone seen Grothar lately? Missing his posts, and can't seem to find his updated blog. Thanks for any info.
Quoting Seawall:
Has anyone seen Grothar lately? Missing his posts, and can't seem to find his updated blog. Thanks for any info.
A few days ago he said he was leaving WU for " a long time". He didn't explain further.
638. DFWjc
Well I'm off for the night, but we just hit the 4 hour mark of rain falling here in the western portion of the Metroplex (DFW). Winds have been up and down, with teh heaviest downpours to come...
If this ever gets organized enough, it'll be upgraded straight to a tropical storm with winds of at least 40 knots. 


Surface wind analysis shows that this has winds up to 47 knots. 


Farewell Philippe! (sob)
Mornin' gang. Had some squalls wake me up overnight and seem about to get another one. It looks like I'll have a break from the rain for a little while, if only the wind would lay down..... Watched two sailboats drag anchor and go ashore on the rocks, and three powerboats drug anchor and ended up on a sandbar. Nasty all around on Indian river yesterday.
Was reviewing the storm totals. I have only gotten maybe two inches. Just a mile or so north, they have gotten more than six. Amazing what a difference just a short distance can make. It looks like the lower St. Johns watershed got a serious slug of water.

644. Ylee
Grothar has made appearances at a few selected blogs from time to time, so he hasn't actually left WU, just this blog, for the time being.
Quoting indianrivguy:
Was reviewing the storm totals. I have only gotten maybe two inches. Just a mile or so north, they have gotten more than six. Amazing what a difference just a short distance can make. It looks like the lower St. Johns watershed got a serious slug of water.



I dunno if I trust this. I was outside all night (starting at 5:30pm till 1am) in Tampa at Busch Gardens for 8 hours. Rain was moderate to heavy at times for the whole evening. To see .5 inch seems low.
Quoting guygee:
Final check on the rain gauge for the 24 hours of October 8, 2011 gives a total rain accumulation of 8.74 inches for my Satellite Beach location on the space coast barrier island.


We had 7.16 here at my place. LOTS of yard flooding in the area too. But we needed the rain.
they are predicting a 90% chance of rian on the central east coast of florida..... but i see alot of dry air comming up from the south meaning i think the rain will stop along the eact coast of florida and the rian is just about done
Quoting BADFORCASTSAGAIN:
they are predicting a 90% chance of rian on the central east coast of florida..... but i see alot of dry air comming up from the south meaning i think the rain will stop along the eact coast of florida and the rian is just about done
Good morning folks, raining lightly here with hardly and wind, just a light breeze, maybe today its our turn?
Quoting DJMedik91:


I dunno if I trust this. I was outside all night (starting at 5:30pm till 1am) in Tampa at Busch Gardens for 8 hours. Rain was moderate to heavy at times for the whole evening. To see .5 inch seems low.
I have to agree with you there, we in pinellas got some very good rain last night, alot more than .5 inch
650. Vero1
Yesterday as of 11:45pm Vero Beach had 9.65 inches and since midnight another .35 inches winds are E @ 18 gusting to 36
With the numerous showers that have been pumping in from the east, here in DAB I think we finally reached about 3 inches of rain so far!! Yay!

Forecast says 90% chance of rain today, and more tomorrow as well
We got NADA here in Palm Beach... I own a bar and expected a washout...not the case. Windy with a couple drops. I will be watering my newly planted annuals today as we never got close to anything predicted....
Quoting jonelu:
We got NADA here in Palm Beach... I own a bar and expected a washout...not the case. Windy with a couple drops. I will be watering my newly planted annuals today as we never got close to anything predicted....


We've had three or four decent showers since this all started in Boca. I think a lot of places along Palm Beach County missed out on this one.

Seemed to be a dry slot that just hung over this area through the whole event.

May get something coming up from the south today though.
Good morning - It does look like east central FL may get a bit dryer - large gap in cloud cover heading up from south. We must have 5-6 inches in Melbourne by now.

Is there a COC forming in SE GOM??
What we are dealing with is a Nor'easter transitioning into a Subtropical Storm. We may or may not get it named Rina, but we will be having Tropical Storm conditions regardless if it ever gets a name. NHC gives this a medium chance (30 %) for Subtropical/Tropical formation in the next 48 hours.
Quoting reedzone:
What we are dealing with is a Nor'easter transitioning into a Subtropical Storm. We may or may not get it named Rina, but we will be having Tropical Storm conditions regardless if it ever gets a name. NHC gives this a medium chance (30 %) for Subtropical/Tropical formation in the next 48 hours.


Where do you think it is heading Reed?

I hear Northwest, but then I hear into the GOM?

Quoting Hurricanes12:


Where do you think it is heading Reed?

I hear Northwest, but then I hear into the GOM?



Northwest would be crossing the state, into the GOM.. So you're hearing right. Or it could go up the East Coast and not enter the GOM.. Time will tell. I'm interested more into seeing if this can acquire enough Subtropical characteristics to gain a name. That way people won't complain that Florida got left out haha.. no seriously.
Winds are lightening in south Florida. Even have a SE reading at 42003 buoy .

That ULL is transitioning to a mid level low IMO.

One more day and it should reach down to 850.
Quoting BlueSkiesAbove:
With the numerous showers that have been pumping in from the east, here in DAB I think we finally reached about 3 inches of rain so far!! Yay!

Forecast says 90% chance of rain today, and more tomorrow as well
TO MUCH DRY AIR THATS MOVING UP THE STATE OF FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH NOT MUCH RAIN TODAY LOOK AT THE RADARS AND YOULL SEE THE DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND AND COMMING UP FROM THE SOUTH



LMAO....kinda funny how primitive a species we are....

I have posted on a stock blog for over 10 years and seen so many leave due to a variety of reasons.

If everyone could just leave their ego at the door they would be much better off.....

It's a blog for cryin out loud....a weather blog at that where even the experts are wrong. My goodness. LOL


Quoting Ylee:
Grothar has made appearances at a few selected blogs from time to time, so he hasn't actually left WU, just this blog, for the time being.
Quoting Abacosurf:



LMAO....kinda funny how primitive a species we are....

I have posted on a stock blog for over 10 years and seen so many leave due to a variety of reasons.

If everyone could just leave their ego at the door they would be much better off.....

It's a blog for cryin out loud....a weather blog at that where even the experts are wrong. My goodness. LOL


WOW HE REALLY DID MAKE AN APPEARENCE? OMG THATS WILD
Quoting Abacosurf:



LMAO....kinda funny how primitive a species we are....

I have posted on a stock blog for over 10 years and seen so many leave due to a variety of reasons.

If everyone could just leave their ego at the door they would be much better off.....

It's a blog for cryin out loud....a weather blog at that where even the experts are wrong. My goodness. LOL




WOW HE REALLY DID MAKE AN APPEARENCE? OMG THATS WILD I CANT BELIVE I MISSED HIM
Quoting LargoFl:
I have to agree with you there, we in pinellas got some very good rain last night, alot more than .5 inch


No we didn't? The rainfall estimates are often off locally when we got really tropical rains, but the rain estimates have been very accurate with this event so far because moisture levels aren't as extreme as we can see during the wet season. All those rains you saw coming in from the east have been weakening as they make it to Tampa Bay, I only picked up 0.18 from just light rain all night and all rain gauges around Tampa Bay recorded similar totals.

I'm hoping the heavy rain will stop dissipating before it makes it here at some point. Not because I need but I'd like to see some action :)
665. Vero1

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 091155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2011

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE W ATLC AND E GULF OF
MEXICO IS BEING INDUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM W TENNESSEE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR
25N83W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 09/0900 UTC EXTENDS
FROM THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N79W BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA TO 31N79W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W ATLC S OF 30N TO OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO E CUBA BETWEEN 68W-77W AND N
OF 24N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 77W-85W.

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
ORGANIZATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE HAS TAKEN PLACE DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA DESCRIBED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION COVERS THE E GULF E OF 90W. A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO
AND THE W GULF FROM NEAR VERACRUZ TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY INLAND OVER TEXAS AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG
THE COAST OF TEXAS BETWEEN GALVESTON AND MATAGORDA BAY. A BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLC STATES
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS N GEORGIA TO S ALABAMA INTO
THE GULF TO NEAR 25N94W. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
SURFACE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING
STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N
GULF N OF 25N W OF 85W. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE E GULF LATER TODAY. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NW ACROSS NE
GULF THROUGH MON SUBSIDING WINDS AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER NW
FLORIDA. A WEAK TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM LOW SW TO YUCATAN TUE
AND WED THEN SHIFT E ACROSS FLORIDA AND SE GULF THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N TO
OVER CUBA BETWEEN 76W-80W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N69W
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W-76W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 12N71W ALONG 12N76W
ACROSS S NICARAGUA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 11N84W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N
BETWEEN 75W-80W AND S OF 10N BETWEEN 80W-84W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE FAR E AND FAR W CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR
W ATLC W OF 77W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC BETWEEN 55W-76W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 24N W OF 50W TO OVER THE E CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLC STATES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W
ATLC IS GIVING THE FAR W ATLC STRONG EASTERLY WINDS TO GALE
FORCE. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
N OF 26N BETWEEN 41W-60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N41W ALONG 27N45W TO 24N52W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS
A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 23N61W TO 23N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/90 NM E OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
32N30W ALONG 26N36W TO A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 22N45W. STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN STRONG NE WINDS
THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW






It's felt more like a Tropical System with warm temps along with bursts of rain and wind. I think this may eventually become hybrid, whether it gets a name or not is questionable, but definitely could become hybrid in my opinion.
lots to keep an eye on the area ssw of hawaii is becoming alittle more interesting
Quoting reedzone:
What we are dealing with is a Nor'easter transitioning into a Subtropical Storm. We may or may not get it named Rina, but we will be having Tropical Storm conditions regardless if it ever gets a name. NHC gives this a medium chance (30 %) for Subtropical/Tropical formation in the next 48 hours.


What?! LMAO. This isn't much more than a subtropical fart of a low forming near the dry tortugas moving N close to the west coast of FL with some rain off to the NE then moves inland around big bend area. The highest winds you'll see in FL were yesterday from the pressure gradient between the N & S.
Good Morning.

Quoting reedzone:
It's felt more like a Tropical System with warm temps along with bursts of rain and wind. I think this may eventually become hybrid, whether it gets a name or not is questionable, but definitely could become hybrid in my opinion.Post# 666!
Quoting StormHype:


What?! LMAO. This isn't much more than a subtropical fart of a low forming near the dry tortugas moving N close to the west coast of FL with some rain off to the NE then moves inland around big bend area. The highest winds you'll see in FL were yesterday from the pressure gradient between the N & S.


Just had our largest wind gusts over here in East Central FL., so would not agree with that.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Morning.



Morning.. We've seen Noreasters transition into Subtropical systems.. Andrea in 2007 was a perfect example.
Still rainin. Winds blowin crazy. Branches down. Florida.
I was holding the chains for a HS football game here in St. Augustine. We had wind and rain in bursts or waves if you will. Very strong wind and rain followed by complete calm then more of the same.

Judging just by my arms and legs there was nothing WARM arout it. Shaking cold for three hours, should have bought a jacket and not worn shorts!
Quoting BADFORCASTSAGAIN:
TO MUCH DRY AIR THATS MOVING UP THE STATE OF FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH NOT MUCH RAIN TODAY LOOK AT THE RADARS AND YOULL SEE THE DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND AND COMMING UP FROM THE SOUTH


No rain over night but dumping again in Cocoa Beach.
We've had 5 to 6 inches here in Merritt Island. We are very fortunate that dry air is wrapping around from the Gulf and giving us something of a break. I do believe more rain will build in as the morning goes on though.

So why are their no models up on this, when they model every rain shower that comes off Africa?
Quoting surfsidesindy:


No rain over night but dumping again in Cocoa Beach.


Down right nasty squall moving through this morning, but looks like it won't last long.
Quoting SarahFromFLA:
We've had 5 to 6 inches here in Merritt Island. We are very fortunate that dry air is wrapping around from the Gulf and giving us something of a break. I do believe more rain will build in as the morning goes on though.

So why are their no models up on this, when they model every rain shower that comes off Africa?


are you getting this latest squall?
very heavy winds and rains now e cen fl
Quoting surfsidesindy:


Just had our largest wind gusts over here in East Central FL., so would not agree with that.


Look at the big picture, not just a discrete gust from one local observation. There will be squalls with gust. Last night, St Pete had sustained around 29mph with a gust to 39. Now it's down to 20, even with the low starting to spin down to the surface in the GOM near the Tortugas. All models have latched on to the GOM low formation now. Just doesn't look that impressive what they all do with it.
Quoting SarahFromFLA:
We've had 5 to 6 inches here in Merritt Island. We are very fortunate that dry air is wrapping around from the Gulf and giving us something of a break. I do believe more rain will build in as the morning goes on though.

So why are their no models up on this, when they model every rain shower that comes off Africa?


There are models up on it, but since the NHC is not tracking it as a tropical system there's no cone or track or anything like that.

The models though (GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, UKMET etc.) have reflected it.

It just doesn't look like much because it's just not an organized closed up low.

Hard to project a path on something that's kind of a mess and doesn't have a center to fix off of. Just a big diffuse mess.

Stuff coming off Africa sometimes gets tagged as an invest which makes it a candidate for tropical development.

This system is not much of a candidate for that at this point.
Can someone tell me where this low pressure system is, at the moment cause i don't see anything on satillite or radar. Looks dry from Lake O to the south,east and west.
Quoting Jedkins01:


No we didn't? The rainfall estimates are often off locally when we got really tropical rains, but the rain estimates have been very accurate with this event so far because moisture levels aren't as extreme as we can see during the wet season. All those rains you saw coming in from the east have been weakening as they make it to Tampa Bay, I only picked up 0.18 from just light rain all night and all rain gauges around Tampa Bay recorded similar totals.

I'm hoping the heavy rain will stop dissipating before it makes it here at some point. Not because I need but I'd like to see some action :)


I agree, the official Pinellas County Weather Station in downtown Clw has received .11 so far. That is pretty representative of what the County has got so far.
Morning All, Here in Zephyrhills I have had .83 yesterday and i have .50 as of now. Raining steady and looks like lots more to come. Really no wind to speak of. 3-5 mph range.
Quoting reedzone:


Morning.. We've seen Noreasters transition into Subtropical systems.. Andrea in 2007 was a perfect example.

But what does that have to do with our through of low pressure interacting with an ULL?
Or are you just pointing it out?
Quoting severstorm:
Morning All, Here in Zephyrhills I have had .83 yesterday and i have .50 as of now. Raining steady and looks like lots more to come. Really no wind to speak of. 3-5 mph range.


Winds are starting to die down...

A couple of gusts near my house in Boca, but looks like the overall story will be winds subsiding through the day and into tonight for most folks.
Quoting StormHype:


Look at the big picture, not just a discrete gust from one local observation. There will be squalls with gust. Last night, St Pete had sustained around 29mph with a gust to 39. Now it's down to 20, even with the low starting to spin down to the surface in the GOM near the Tortugas. All models have latched on to the GOM low formation now. Just doesn't look that impressive what they all do with it.


Do you think it will be able to wrap any moisture around it before it heads North or will it head N. as is and leave FL looking at mostly dry air with a few squalls
Quoting StormHype:


Look at the big picture, not just a discrete gust from one local observation. There will be squalls with gust. Last night, St Pete had sustained around 29mph with a gust to 39. Now it's down to 20, even with the low starting to spin down to the surface in the GOM near the Tortugas. All models have latched on to the GOM low formation now. Just doesn't look that impressive what they all do with it.



No, actually, St. Petersburg had sustained winds up to 37 gusting to 47, and that's just the hourly report, peak winds were probably even higher, we had gusts into the high 30's and 40's all day yesterday, wind died off a lot overnight though.
First visible image of the day:
Quoting hotrods:
Can someone tell me where this low pressure system is, at the moment cause i don't see anything on satillite or radar. Looks dry from Lake O to the south,east and west.


There's some dry air getting pulled around from the GOM.

There's an area of dropping pressure south of FL, but it's kind of all over the place. There's not really much of a fix on a center or anything.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
First visible image of the day:


Could that be the surface low off Ft. Lauderdale? Kind of looks like the low level stuff is curling around that area.
The latest squall just went through. Sustained winds are a bit stronger this morning between 20 - 25. I hope the wind blows away some of my back yard flooding.
Quoting luvtogolf:


I agree, the official Pinellas County Weather Station in downtown Clw has received .11 so far. That is pretty representative of what the County has got so far.


Yep, its just that people who live here who don't have weather stations assumed all that heavy rain that moving this way last night drenched us all night, but it didn't.

Hopefully the next batch of heavy rain will hold, it seems to be holding much better than the previous ones that approached, but I won't trust it till I see downpours outside, lol.
Quoting whepton3:


There's some dry air getting pulled around from the GOM.

There's an area of dropping pressure south of FL, but it's kind of all over the place. There's not really much of a fix on a center or anything.

Yeah, look at the dry air it's dragging around:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

But what does that have to do with our through of low pressure interacting with an ULL?
Or are you just pointing it out?


Just pointing it out because someone though it was crazy for it to happen.
Quoting whepton3:


Could that be the surface low off Ft. Lauderdale? Kind of looks like the low level stuff is curling around that area.

Hmm, interesting stuff:
Quoting whepton3:


There are models up on it, but since the NHC is not tracking it as a tropical system there's no cone or track or anything like that.

The models though (GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, UKMET etc.) have reflected it.

It just doesn't look like much because it's just not an organized closed up low.

Hard to project a path on something that's kind of a mess and doesn't have a center to fix off of. Just a big diffuse mess.

Stuff coming off Africa sometimes gets tagged as an invest which makes it a candidate for tropical development.

This system is not much of a candidate for that at this point.
nhc has it at 30% for developement,lets see what happens when it gets into the gulf
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Hmm, interesting stuff:


Between say Andros Island and the SE coast of FL, things are moving north.

Low level clouds moving S and E when you look off the SW coast of FL.

Link
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Hmm, interesting stuff:


Vorticity is the strongest where the low level spin is.. This is probably where the Low is.

Quoting LargoFl:
nhc has it at 30% for developement,lets see what happens when it gets into the gulf


It may do something, but considering they've not really jumped on board and upped their probability since yesterday, I'm not convinced those guys are really excited about this.

Hedging their bets.
West Beach, Galveston

RAIN! Glorious rain at last!
We've been getting hammered by heavy bands of training rain since yesterday, and the main front line is moving East pretty fast this way.

So much for forecasts, LOL
"Texas's major cities such as Houston will see very little rain over the weekend. " Dr. Jeff
Quoting reedzone:


Vorticity is the strongest where the low level spin is.. This is probably where the Low is.


Some of the vorticity in the Eastern Gulf seems to have weakened a little overnight.
Quoting whepton3:


Between say Andros Island and the SE coast of FL, things are moving north.

Low level clouds moving S and E when you look off the SW coast of FL.

Link


And it sort of lines up with this:

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Some of the vorticity in the Eastern Gulf seems to have weakened overnight.


Vorticity has pulled north from last night.
What are you supposed to be??
OK, I get what you're saying.

Since there isn't a "Q" storm I think we should called it Unstructured Storm Q.

Quoting whepton3:


There are models up on it, but since the NHC is not tracking it as a tropical system there's no cone or track or anything like that.

The models though (GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, UKMET etc.) have reflected it.

It just doesn't look like much because it's just not an organized closed up low.

Hard to project a path on something that's kind of a mess and doesn't have a center to fix off of. Just a big diffuse mess.

Stuff coming off Africa sometimes gets tagged as an invest which makes it a candidate for tropical development.

This system is not much of a candidate for that at this point.
Nothing supports a Gulf low, upper divergence, lower convergence, and vorticity all support a developing low east of Florida.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
What are you supposed to be??


Been watching that.

CMC last week brought a storm up from that area and into FL headed into the coming weekend.

Don't think this is it, but it's quite the looker.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
What are you supposed to be??


IMO that is the area to watch for true tropical development, I think that is the area where Mitch in 98 formed.
Very possible we'll get two separate lows, one in the Gulf, a secondary.. perhaps fully tropical one.. off the East Coast. This might not be just a one named storm deal.


Vorticity in that area also.
Quoting stormpetrol:


IMO that is the area to watch for true tropical development, I think that is the area where Mitch in 98 formed.


I will begin clipping cheetoes coupons and getting bottled water!

Seriously, there's been something trying to get going in that area for a couple of days now.

Interesting to see if we get some evolution down there.
The coast of Mexico in the Eastern Pacific is really starting to fire up now. 99L is looking good too.

Link

Definite sign that the MJO is translating back towards the Carribean basins.

Looks wet in Florida.
The NHC gives it a 70% chance of not forming, i feel that based on the current conditions and the amount of sheer it will be quite difficult for a storm to spin up rather quickly.

I think it will be a rainy/windy couple of days for Florida, but no significant threat for rapid formation over the next few days.

I do believe that the Surface low will form just off the SW coast of FL and move north, based on the current wind pattern over Florida it looks like it might be just west of the Keys.
Quoting kowboy0:
West Beach, Galveston

RAIN! Glorious rain at last!
We've been getting hammered by heavy bands of training rain since yesterday, and the main front line is moving East pretty fast this way.

So much for forecasts, LOL
"Texas's major cities such as Houston will see very little rain over the weekend. " Dr. Jeff

The official NWS site for Galveston--Scholes Field--lists but 0.09" since yesterday morning, while Houston Hobby shows 0.11". The radar rainfall estimate maps does show that a few very small areas up and down the coast have received up to an inch, so if you've seen anything like that, consider yourself fortunate. ;-)
Quoting reedzone:
Nothing supports a Gulf low, upper divergence, lower convergence, and vorticity all support a developing low east of Florida.
,surface trough extends from eastern cuba over the keys and then down over western cuba like a upside down smile,no surface low,only in the mid/ull's now,may slowly orgainze a broad surafec low either over the southern tip of fl lr just off the sw tip,jom,check surface analysis NO surfaec low ....yet,maybe during today imo,sliding up the west coast of fl or right up the spine of the state
Finally getting some heavier showers here, first decent rain out of this system.
Can someone explain to my why the winds are almost calm here in Pinellas County. Yesterday at this time they were already howling out of the East.
Quick Buoy check along FL east coast.

Looks like the low pressure winner is this guy near Miami:

Link

Could be something lower... but he's the early leader.
And STILL no invest...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
And STILL no invest...
La policia de P.R va a investigar.
looks interesting se of miami
Quoting luvtogolf:
Can someone explain to my why the winds are almost calm here in Pinellas County. Yesterday at this time they were already howling out of the East.
The winds are sleeping.Wait until they wake up.
Its going to rain!!! Happy Dance!!!!!

Quoting whepton3:
Quick Buoy check along FL east coast.

Looks like the low pressure winner is this guy near Miami:

Link

Could be something lower... but he's the early leader.

Sustained winds just under TS force with 38kt gusts at this station.
This morning the weather station at Ponce Inlet (border of South Daytona and New Smyrna Beach) is reporting 79 degrees and 10-22 mph winds.
Today we have 90% chance of rain.
While we have a lull am going to walk down to the beach.
Our birds must be a little stressed with the wind gusting for over a week now.
strongest gust so far e cen fl
Glad to see that most of Texas will get at least some rain, finally.


LinkLoop
Stormpetrol- Mirror calm seas about us this weekend.I was boating north yesterday late in the day and it was like glass out there ( a little too calm).... you know?
my backyard is ponding this morning, went from .50 inch last evening to 1.6 in this morning. Looks like we finally got out of our dry spot.
juat curious how many people think the sub tropical system will get a name? i really think no but what about you guys
732. DFWjc
Quoting Chicklit:
Glad to see that most of Texas will get at least some rain, finally.


LinkLoop


Yeah, we've gotten 2" of rain since 9 last night, not much, but it's still raining even now here in North Fort Worth...
Morning,
Here is the forecast for the Carolina Coast for the next week!
Forecast as of 6:26 am EDT on October 9, 2011
Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm-
Today
NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft...except 5 to 7 ft near shore. Widely scattered showers.
Tonight
NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft. Widely scattered showers.
Mon
E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft. Scattered showers.
Mon Night
E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 11 ft. Showers likely.
Tue
E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft. Showers likely.
Tue Night
E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Showers likely.
Wed
SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu
W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
juat curious how many people think the sub tropical system will get a name? i really think no but what about you guys

I think it will.
Just ran outside to check my rain guage - 8 inches total so far. Our power was out for 12 hours yesterday due to a high power line down on A1A. Winds still very strong but no rain at the moment. The yard will require major cleanup when this is over!
"...and Texas's major cities such as Houston will see very little rain over the weekend."
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
juat curious how many people think the sub tropical system will get a name? i really think no but what about you guys


I doubt it. Pressures aren't falling very fast, if at all, and the "thing" shows no evidence orignazation. The pressure here near Montgomery AL had been stuck around 30.18 for the past day. It also just doesn't smell "tropical" outside, if you know what I mean. Air moving up from the GOM has a distinct sea smell, and I'm no getting that here.
sustained 10 to 15 gusting to 30ish here in lake mary fl...... (central florida)
Good morning all. In Port St. Lucie finally a lull. No rain, still have wind and gusty winds. Even saw some sunshine and a patch of blue sky! Intermittent rain all night and serious winds. Thinking the worst might be over, I looked at the radar. Another huge "blob" of rain offshore and heading this way. Looks like it will be a couple of hours before it gets here, so need to run a couple of quick errands. I see we are STILL waiting for the low to officially form. Any thoughts regarding all that convection under Dominican/Haiti? Where is the MJO? Could this be the start of the "mischief" that Levi has been talking about?
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:
Good morning all. In Port St. Lucie finally a lull. No rain, still have wind and gusty winds. Even saw some sunshine and a patch of blue sky! Intermittent rain all night and serious winds. Thinking the worst might be over, I looked at the radar. Another huge "blob" of rain offshore and heading this way. Looks like it will be a couple of hours before it gets here, so need to run a couple of quick errands. I see we are STILL waiting for the low to officially form. Any thoughts regarding all that convection under Dominican/Haiti? Where is the MJO? Could this be the start of the "mischief" that Levi has been talking about?
Like i was saying earlier theres alot of dry air wrapping around the low and comming up the state of florida from the south looks like the southeast and central east coast of florida will dry out today winds will stick around but radar showing no rain or very little rain from palm coast south to miami so much for the 90% chance of rain all day lol
looks as good as it has just e of miami
hurricane jova is a very rare storm where we have a hurricane move EAST into mexico
look at the water vapor satelight and youll see a ton of dry air comming up from the florida straights
wind shear decreasin in the florida stragihts... lots of dry air though
Low pressure center can be seen spinning off the S.W. Florida coast.
747. ackee
Quoting stormpetrol:


IMO that is the area to watch for true tropical development, I think that is the area where Mitch in 98 formed.
I think sw carrn or westrn carrb will need to be watch clossely for a possible tropical system this week into next weeek would not be suprise if what ever devlops becomes a cane
I think this area south of Haiti is attached to the Trough of Low Pressure affecting Florida already. I think is normal that convection is enhanced within the axis of the Trough.
It was kind of funny yesterday a co-worker laughed at me when I mentioned we might get some rain from a sub tropical system. She just laughed and said its October, its done for this year.

Hmm...
Checking back in z-hills fl. up to .94 for the day and raining fairly hard. see no end insight for aleast a few hours. my daughters in st. pete fl and says its raining hard there too.
Mark 14N/74W as possible next AOI
Irwin making a comeback.
Quoting superpete:
Stormpetrol- Mirror calm seas about us this weekend.I was boating north yesterday late in the day and it was like glass out there ( a little too calm).... you know?


The south side has been quite choppy now for days!, last week it was dead calm on the south side!
On visible sat. a low level swirl can be seen spinning just off the East Coast down near Miami.I wonder if that is what will become the dominant low later down the line as it moves north towards Georgia?

Really looks like something trying to get its act together in the se gulf. Just sw of fort myers
Quoting druseljic:
It was kind of funny yesterday a co-worker laughed at me when I mentioned we might get some rain from a sub tropical system. She just laughed and said its October, its done for this year.

Hmm...
its not done a powerhouse is yet to come from the nw carb
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its not done a powerhouse is yet to come from the nw carb


I just keep thinking about the MJO coming to our area soon. Don't think we're quite finished yet either. Just funny how quickly she dismissed it as if there were no more storms this time of year.
Bigger picture
Quoting Jedkins01:
Finally getting some heavier showers here, first decent rain out of this system.
Looks like we're going to be washed out til about 2 this afternoon. The wind seems to be taking its time to start up today though. How is it over there in Pinellas?
Quoting severstorm:
Really looks like something trying to get its act together in the se gulf. Just sw of fort myers
I think that is associated more with an upper level feature.

Could it be?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Could it be?
And this may be the surface feature... If so, it will be over Florida today and won't strengthen much
Aha!
IRWIN COULD BE MAKING A COMEBACK.
From the 11AM discussion.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1003 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEAST GULF WILL KEEP ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PW`S AOA
2 INCHES) OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A
SLOW NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH
WILL FAVOR HIGH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR UNDER THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING THE
INCREASING SHEAR MAY FAVOR SOME ROTATING STORMS ALONG THE
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A LOW THREAT FOR TORNADOES OR
WATERSPOUTS...WITH INTENSE PRECIP LOADING WITHIN THE DOWNDRAFTS
ALSO SUPPORTING SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AS WELL.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AGAIN FAVOR BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING INTO THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO
MORNING UPDATE PLANNED.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Aha!
IRWIN COULD BE MAKING A COMEBACK.
From the 11AM discussion.
lol irwin :P if he does that could be bad for mexico.. are the HH going into jova today?
Huge blob of rain off the east coast of florida that the Wx man said would head on towards the coast.

We shall see....
I hope Mexico is prepared for a major hurricane.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011

...JOVA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 108.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
im thinking that area off sefl will move inland and diffuse,the main player will be the mid/ull in tsegom working its way to the surface today/tonight,way to much dry air over thebgulf stream right now
Irwin is now predicted to hit Mexico as a strengthening TS.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011

...IRWIN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND NO LONGER WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 119.8W
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

Quoting stillwaiting:
im thinking that area off sefl will move inland and diffuse,the main player will be the mid/ull in tsegom working its way to the surface today/tonight,way to much dry air over thebgulf stream right now
Water vapor tells the story this morning.
Cloudy, gray, and windy here in Wellington, FL near West Palm Beach. We were promised 3"-6" of rain for the weekend, but the precip has been negligible. The consistent 15mph wind has been keeping the bugs from flying. And it looks to me like the low might be centered just southeast of Naples. Whatcha think?
Quoting Ameister12:
I hope Mexico is prepared for a major hurricane.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOVA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011

...JOVA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN...HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 108.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
gee that weather channel guy was right on the money days ago, he figured it would be a cat-3 and he warned them to get ready and prepare, hope they did, its coming
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1003 AM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEAST GULF WILL KEEP ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PW`S AOA
2 INCHES) OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A
SLOW NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH
WILL FAVOR HIGH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR UNDER THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY DUE TO LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING THE
INCREASING SHEAR MAY FAVOR SOME ROTATING STORMS ALONG THE
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT WITH A LOW THREAT FOR TORNADOES OR
WATERSPOUTS...WITH INTENSE PRECIP LOADING WITHIN THE DOWNDRAFTS
ALSO SUPPORTING SOME STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
AS WELL.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AGAIN FAVOR BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING INTO THE
15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO
MORNING UPDATE PLANNED.
thanks for the local update, steady rain here now, and breezy but not bad, rain sure is cool and chilly, no warmth with this system
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Looks like we're going to be washed out til about 2 this afternoon. The wind seems to be taking its time to start up today though. How is it over there in Pinellas?
steady rain here, not too much wind yet as well..
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Jova ssems like a Cat 2.
What happened to the proposed SSHWS?
ECMF MJO forecast..click pic to see the rest.
Needless to say, Squally here in New Smyrna Beach, but a picture is worth a thousand words.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
On visible sat. a low level swirl can be seen spinning just off the East Coast down near Miami.I wonder if that is what will become the dominant low later down the line as it moves north towards Georgia?

2

crazy!
Just a quick update from here in Brevard County... I have received 11.04" of rain since 9pm on Friday evening. Also of note, peak wind gust was 56 mph on Friday night in a squall--- although, other gusts to between 50 and 55 mph have been received since then. Currently, a few peeks of sun... low 80s and winds around 25 sustained, gusting to around 40.
Can someone push the central carib thing eastward towards me lol
Fresh Windsat
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Just a quick update from here in Brevard County... I have received 11.04" of rain since 9pm on Friday evening. Also of note, peak wind gust was 56 mph on Friday night in a squall--- although, other gusts to between 50 and 55 mph have been received since then. Currently, a few peeks of sun... low 80s and winds around 25 sustained, gusting to around 40.


Melbourne area is getting it the worst.
Looks like we're getting ready for Round 2 or is this Round 3?!


LinkWVLoopgom
788. 7544
is all the stuuf to the east of so fl moving wnw will there be more rain today tia
Just got back from fishing in Athens GA, and wow we were getting quite the wind gusts.I'd say around 30-35mph gust everyonce in a while.
Quoting uptxcoast:
Its going to rain!!! Happy Dance!!!!!



I was looking at the radar and it appears the rain is moving north but, is building along the east side. As of right now, I am a bit too far east to get the heavier rains. I am getting some light rain. More wind than rain, however.
Any chance of this moisture making it into the panhandle?

793. 7544
looks like we could see 93l in the caribiean soon big blob there ?
Quoting 7544:
looks like we could see 93l in the caribiean soon big blob there ?


It is blobby there.

Something funky's going on.
Currently, pre-STS Rina (if it develops) reminds me of TS Nicole from 2010:

Water Vapor Imagery, late Sep. 2010



Our current storm is bringing moisture from the Caribbean.
It seems we have two low pressures. One off the coast of S.W. Fl. and the other off the East Coast.
This was also the scenerio some of the models picked up on.
This radar loop shows the East Coast low fairly well.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JOVA CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 108.7W AT 09/1500 UTC MOVING
E OR 090 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE
SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER. LATEST NHC ADVISORY
FORECASTS JOVA TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES ON AN
EASTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND MOVING INLAND
MEXICO NEAR 20N105W BY EARLY WED. INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THAT
PART OF MEXICO SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY
INFORMATION FOR LIKELY POSSIBLE FUTURE HAZARDOUS STATEMENTS
AS JOVA NEARS THE COAST.



what?
This radar loop shows the GOM low off the S.W. Fl. coast.
2 inches here since yesterday southeast of Buda, the fires around Bastrop are out with this good rain, hopefully we get more today, the cracks in the ground are a little smaller today. Looks like Florida is going to get way too much rain, send some to Georgia where they need it, LOL
Looks like our long awaited Caribbean storm could happen this week - the ECMWF and CMC both show a system developing in the Caribbean. NOGAPS and GFS aren't as aggressive, while the GFS does develop a system - the timeline is off.

Also, the 00z ECMWF developed two cyclones out of the mess over Florida.

One is a moderate TS off the East Coast another is a sub-tropical storm in the Gulf.

Radar out of Florida shows two circulations competing against each other, one in the Gulf and one off the East coast of Florida. We saw this earlier this year, with Bret and Cindy. There was a competing circulation in the trough that formed Bret, that became Cindy.
Just under 11" in my raingauge in the last 36 hours. About 30 miles south of St. Cloud Florida. Flooding is pretty bad. Sure hope we don't get too much more rain.
.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
It seems we have two low pressures. One off the coast of S.W. Fl. and the other off the East Coast.
This was also the scenerio some of the models picked up on.
This radar loop shows the East Coast low fairly well.
It Seems very UNLKELY, but we might soon have STD/S 18/Rina and MAYBE, JUST MAYBE we might have STD/S 19/Sean. In a little while we could have TS Tammy (Again!)
Afternoon all.

We've had some wild winds overnight from this coalescing system, along with some rain, but currently things are dry and calm. Most of the action seems off to our east, though how long that holds true will depend on how this thing pulls together.

Also, is that rain over central TX????? Sure hope that's not showing up at the surface as mere virga...
FWIW, here's what I think is going to happen -

There are currently two lows it appears off each side of Florida. Both are competing against eachother to become the main dominant surface circulation. The models have been showing this happening for days, but it was that either the sub-tropical storm developed off the East coast of Florida and moved into Georgia while becoming tropical or staying sub-tropical in the Gulf of Mexico while meandering around. I believe the surface low beginning to get going in the Gulf will become the dominate one, but will have a competing circulation meandering off Cape Canaveral moving away. Now, it appears according to the ECMWF that this surface low off the East Coast of Florida will begin to move N off the coast of the USA while becoming Tropical Storm ''Sean'', and it appears that starting on Monday the surface area in the Gulf of Mexico would develop first, given it was the dominate circulation into Sub-Tropical Storm ''Rina''.

This is one of the many possibilities I see happening, and I could be dead wrong and neither might develop. But as I mentioned earlier, this did happen earlier this July in a somewhat similar manner, though there are key differences, with TS Bret and TS Cindy.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JOVA CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 108.7W AT 09/1500 UTC MOVING
E OR 090 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE
SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER. LATEST NHC ADVISORY
FORECASTS JOVA TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES ON AN
EASTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND MOVING INLAND
MEXICO NEAR 20N105W BY EARLY WED. INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THAT
PART OF MEXICO SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY
INFORMATION FOR LIKELY POSSIBLE FUTURE HAZARDOUS STATEMENTS
AS JOVA NEARS THE COAST.



what?

I noticed as well...
Quoting Grothar:
.


Best post of the day!
Can someone post the long range GFS or post the link for it?
Quoting presslord:


Best post of the day!


LOL
Low #1

Low #2
Quoting presslord:


Best post of the day!
Hear hear! And he does it so eloquently....
Quoting Grothar:
.

Such an amazing post...
WTF is a 'future hazardous statement' ?
And why are people allowed to make them?

Now, I'm in Panic mode, and will probably have to have a Beer.
Shucks !
Quoting shawn26:
Can someone post the long range GFS or post the link for it?



Link
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hear hear! And he does it so eloquently....

He belongs to the minimalist school of blogging.
Quoting pottery:
WTF is a 'future hazardous statement' ?
And why are people allowed to make them?

Now, I'm in Panic mode, and will probably have to have a Beer.
Shucks !
Quoting pottery:
WTF is a 'future hazardous statement' ?
And why are people allowed to make them?

Now, I'm in Panic mode, and will probably have to have a Beer.
Shucks !

No need to justify a beer on Sunday afternoon LOL


Looks like a big mess from Venezuela to Jacksonville...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Such an amazing post...

Yes, he does have a way with words, doesn't he?
Swarms of hidden meaning there.
Brilliant.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
FWIW, here's what I think is going to happen -

There are currently two lows it appears off each side of Florida. Both are competing against eachother to become the main dominant surface circulation. The models have been showing this happening for days, but it was that either the sub-tropical storm developed off the East coast of Florida and moved into Georgia while becoming tropical or staying sub-tropical in the Gulf of Mexico while meandering around. I believe the surface low beginning to get going in the Gulf will become the dominate one, but will have a competing circulation meandering off Cape Canaveral moving away. Now, it appears according to the ECMWF that this surface low off the East Coast of Florida will begin to move N off the coast of the USA while becoming Tropical Storm ''Sean'', and it appears that starting on Monday the surface area in the Gulf of Mexico would develop first, given it was the dominate circulation into Sub-Tropical Storm ''Rina''.

This is one of the many possibilities I see happening, and I could be dead wrong and neither might develop. But as I mentioned earlier, this did happen earlier this July in a somewhat similar manner, though there are key differences, with TS Bret and TS Cindy.


Buoy near the coast of Key West.
Quoting pottery:
WTF is a 'future hazardous statement' ?
And why are people allowed to make them?

Now, I'm in Panic mode, and will probably have to have a Beer.
Shucks !

what's what I want to know..
Is this ex-Philippe? Or just another extratropical low?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Is this ex-Philippe? Or just another extratropical low?

Ex-Philippe.

Good afternoon all.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Ex-Philippe.

Good afternoon all.

Hey.
Do you know what "LIKELY POSSIBLE FUTURE HAZARDOUS STATEMENTS" means? xD
Good to see you brother Grothar.

Wow, I've been perusing radars and can see both systems spinning. The wind here in Jensen has been moving steadily further north since 4am,so I knew CoC of "something" was moving this way. Started out SE, now its ENE. Quite fresh too. Interesting couple of days.
Battle of the Lows: Which one will win?
What a mess out there. The LP off the E coast of FL has the best chance imo...but that even looks doubtful at this point. Looks like a big monsoon trough that extends from FL to the S Caribbean. That mess is going to have to clear out first and then we might be a window of tropical development....especially with the MJO coming back. I think somewhere in the next 7-10 days we could have a TD or TS. Wind shear needs to calm down as well.
Jova is clearing out its eye.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Hey.
Do you know what "LIKELY POSSIBLE FUTURE HAZARDOUS STATEMENTS" means? xD

Errr....huh?

Quoting Ameister12:
Battle of the Lows: Which one will win?

Both.
There goes the air pressure east of Kennedy Space Center..
Jova is becoming a nice-looking hurricane, with nice spiral bands and outflow. The eye is clearing out, and deep convection is firing in the eyewall. We should see a 100-105 mph Category 2 hurricane at 5PM. We'll probably see Hurricane Watches issued as well.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Errr....huh?


Both.

I happened to stumble upon that wonderful set of words at the 1605 UTC EPac tropical weather discussion.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I agree with the more reliable Euro model that develops something in the southwest Caribbean this weekend/early next week. But keeps it shunted well south of us(Florida) until at least mid-late next week. Due to two fronts expected to clear the state this Thursday-Saturday. With the nice weather lingering up to Wednesday because of a cut-off low that will be left behind over the central Appalachians.

By the tale end of next week(20th-22nd) after a brief ridge over the East, a powerful tough should set up shop-bringing below average temps the following weekend into the last week of October up and past Halloween weekend!

This should do the trick in boosting this thing Northeastwards towards the Bahama's ahead of an approaching cold front.

However,there might be a gap in-between the departing cut-off low and that long-wave trough through the 18-20th time frame. If so, South Florida might be in for a brief land-falling storm before you see the coolest temps of the season thereafter!
Quoting pottery:
WTF is a 'future hazardous statement' ?
And why are people allowed to make them?

Now, I'm in Panic mode, and will probably have to have a Beer.
Shucks !


...no beer here (too expensive)
I'll just go straight to
essence of distilled sugar cane!

CRS
INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THAT
PART OF MEXICO SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY
INFORMATION FOR LIKELY POSSIBLE FUTURE HAZARDOUS STATEMENTS
AS JOVA NEARS THE COAST.


How do you have a likely possible future Hazardous statement? You can have a possible future Hazardous statement or a likely future Hazardous statement, but not a likely..possible future hazardous statement.

Hmmmmm...
Do you know what "LIKELY POSSIBLE FUTURE HAZARDOUS STATEMENTS" means? xD


HAZARDOUS FUTURE LIKELY POSSIBLE
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Jova is becoming a nice-looking hurricane, with nice spiral bands and outflow. The eye is clearing out, and deep convection is firing in the eyewall. We should see a 100-105 mph Category 2 hurricane at 5PM. We'll probably see Hurricane Watches issued as well.

at landfall what wind speed do you think jova will be??
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Do you know what "LIKELY POSSIBLE FUTURE HAZARDOUS STATEMENTS" means? xD


HAZARDOUS FUTURE LIKELY POSSIBLE

Doom.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
at landfall what wind speed do you think jova will be??

Its organizing quite nicely compared to what it was yesterday, and it is under favorable conditions. For this reason, my final answer, all the way up to landfall, will be 125/135 mph.
I know some of you guys like to look at what Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was in previous years, so I am working on Wikipedia to bring some of them back. Here is my sandbox so far, which has gotten basically no where, and it will take a while..but..

Link
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SUN 09 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCOPD)
VALID 10/1100Z to 11/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-131

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS.
1. HURRICANE JOVA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 10/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0210E JOVA
C. 10/1230Z
D. 16.4N 106.2W
E. 10/1700Z TO 10/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX HURRICANE JOVA AT
11/1800Z NEAR 18.5N 104.9W
JWP
It's really interesting to watch the two Lows fighting for survival. The East Coast Low is doing well and moving steadily to the North (hopefully the majority of the weather will stay offshore). East Central Fl. doesn't need any more rain.

The Low off the S.W. coast seems stuck (left behind)for the moment.
West Coast Low as seen from the Key West Radar.
Low-pressure area number 1:



Low-pressure area number 2:



The one in the Gulf of Mexico right now appears dominant, and it may stay that way. There is a possibility of two systems, with the one in the GOMEX being more tropical than the one the east coast of Florida.
Ex-Phillipe: Wow. Neat.
Low in Gulf: Rina or Sean
Low on east: Rina or Sean
Spin in Caribbean it looks like it...
There's some pretty strong weather associated with the low off the S.W. Florida coastline. It will be interesting to see which direction its decides to move.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


...no beer here (too expensive)
I'll just go straight to
essence of distilled sugar cane!

CRS


yea...beer takes too long...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Its organizing quite nicely compared to what it was yesterday, and it is under favorable conditions. For this reason, my final answer, all the way up to landfall, will be 125/135 mph.
im thinking 115 to 120 at landfall. mexico on the pacific side rarely gets hurricanes and strong ones like cat 2s and 3's are even rarer
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
im thinking 115 to 120 at landfall. mexico on the pacific side rarely gets hurricanes and strong ones like cat 2s and 3's are even rarer

Rick in 2009 was a Cat 5 but by the time it got to the coast it was weakening TS.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
It's really interesting to watch the two Lows fighting for survival. The East Coast Low is doing well and moving steadily to the North (hopefully the majority of the weather will stay offshore). East Central Fl. doesn't need any more rain.

The Low off the S.W. coast seems stuck (left behind)for the moment.
West Coast Low as seen from the Key West Radar.
just said on twc seems a low is developing heading to central fl.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
im thinking 115 to 120 at landfall. mexico on the pacific side rarely gets hurricanes and strong ones like cat 2s and 3's are even rarer

That's because they typically weaken because of wind shear...This isn't the case this time. In fact, Jova should be rapidly intensifying all the way up to landfall, which is why a Category 4 at landfall is definitely not out of the woods.
GOM water vapor loop shows the dominant low off the S.W. coast of Fl. Dry air is completely wrapping around the low cutting it off from it main moisture source.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.
html

Looks a little similar to some of the Sub tropical low formation loops you guys posted a couple days ago.
New Blog
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Rick in 2009 was a Cat 5 but by the time it got to the coast it was weakening TS.
yeah but this one is supposed to stay in tact meaning a cat 2 or 3 at landfall is likely...
atlantic the one taking charge
NEW BLOG
Sure wish Palm Beach County would get out of the dry slot before all the rain is gone. I see counties N of here got rain, but here in P.B. County nothing, nada, zip. Today I drove 25 miles from Lake Worth to P.B. Gardens and no standing water anywhere... not even wet streets! Don't know how these 'estimated rain fall amounts' work on radar as they sure aren't accurate.

Glad other areas got some precip though.
I've had 1.66" here in Palm Beach County since the storm began.
This Blog is dead!!,we so much going in the Caribbean and the GOM,no action at all,I love to see the opinion and graphic of other weather aficionados!!,but in the last few days no sign of the regulars?,I wonder why??.
Any opinions of how this mess will end up,some models shows that the low west of South Florida will be the dominant low and will move over South Florida probably taking a lot of the HUGE! moisture to the East of Florida with it,I believe we are no done with the heavy rain and wind here in South Florida,any comments please,thanks!!!.
Quoting Hurricane1956:
This Blog is dead!!,we so much going in the Caribbean and the GOM,no action at all,I love to see the opinion and graphic of other weather aficionados!!,but in the last few days no sign of the regulars?,I wonder why??.
Any opinions of how this mess will end up,some models shows that the low west of South Florida will be the dominant low and will move over South Florida probably taking a lot of the HUGE! moisture to the East of Florida with it,I believe we are no done with the heavy rain and wind here in South Florida,any comments please,thanks!!!.
ACTUALLY I MEAN THE LOW EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW.