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Heavy rains from Arlene kill 17 in Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:36 PM GMT on July 03, 2011

Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Arlene created flash floods and mudslides that killed eleven people in Mexico over the past three days, according to media reports. Rainfall amounts as high as ten inches were estimated by satellite over the mountainous regions of Mexico where most of the fatalities occurred. The soil in the region was prone to more dangerous flash floods than usual, due to extreme drought conditions that killed much of the soil-stabilizing vegetation.


Figure 1. Satellite-based rainfall estimates from NASA's TRMM satellite for June 24 - July 1, 2011. The solid black line shows the path of Arlene with storms symbols marking the 00 and 12Z positions and intensity. Most of the heaviest rain occurs offshore and along the coast. Over land, rainfall totals exceeded 100 to 150 mm of rain (~4 to 6 inches, shown in green) over most of the central east coast of Mexico. In the vicinity of where Arlene made landfall, there are higher amounts in excess of 250 mm (~10 inches, shown in orange). In addition to the rain from Arlene, a passing tropical wave contributed to the rainfall totals over the Yucatan prior to Arlene's formation. Image credit: NASA.

The heat is on
Sizzling summer temperatures set new daily maximum temperature records over many states in the Southwest and Midwest U.S. yesterday. Most notably, Phoenix Arizona hit 118°F, their hottest day since it was 118 on 21 July 2006. If the long-range GFS model is correct, the Midwest could be in for one of its hottest heat waves in recent years next weekend, when a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to move in.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, and none of the computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation through July 10.

Enjoy your holiday weekend, everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Tuesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments


GOCE's 'Potato Earth' View Yellow areas show the highest gravity, blue the lowest. ESA/HPF/DLR

shear is becoming more favorable in the MDZ all the time.
501 aren't you getting sleepy yet getting late over there almost time for bed
if anyone is bored and wants to talk about the possibility of tropical development join my tropics chat
506. P451
507. P451
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

GOCE's 'Potato Earth' View Yellow areas show the highest gravity, blue the lowest. ESA/HPF/DLR


Question: If I'm standing in a yellow zone do I weigh more and a blue zone do I weigh less? If so...how much? Or does it not work that way...

508. P451
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


W. Caribbean just looks fishy doesn't it?

Just has the look like something wants to get started.

Not saying it is or will it just has that "look".

A lot of moisture and that upper level anti-cyclone taking shape.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

GOCE's 'Potato Earth' View Yellow areas show the highest gravity, blue the lowest. ESA/HPF/DLR


Just sitting here looking at what an interesting time you all have over in the Western Atlantic regions.
Now we have posts of blank pages and endless statements in abbreviations.
Is there a glossary of these mysterious capital letters? I can imagine pictures without too many problems.
No offence meant about the terminology, its just a bit obscure sometimes for us observers.
Thanks for all the info folks.
510. P451
Quoting aquak9:


It's called Anti-Gravity. My cat tests for it's presence all the time, by knocking things off the counter. Once they hit the floor, she then tests other areas of the house.

Be glad you only have a barometer, and not a cat.


LOL.

My cat is in bat-ish-crazy mode today. Just into everything. Won't sit still. Yacking away. Wants to eat even though it just got fed. It won't shut the hell up.

Contemplating letting a fly or moth into the house just to give it something to do so it leaves me alone.

Quoting P451:


W. Caribbean just looks fishy doesn't it?

Just has the look like something wants to get started.

Not saying it is or will it just has that "look".

A lot of moisture and that upper level anti-cyclone taking shape.
AND over the past few days shear had fallen significantly. 40-50kts down to 5-10kts with one small area of 20kts.



This is funny. 12z had absolutely no purple in the Caribbean and now 18z has the tiniest dot right in the area we are speaking about :)
513. P451
Quoting stormpetrol:

shear is becoming more favorable in the MDZ all the time.


Last 5 days, shear + tendency.

Quoting P451:


Question: If I'm standing in a yellow zone do I weigh more and a blue zone do I weigh less? If so...how much? Or does it not work that way...

yes. Yellow areas indicate stronger gravitational force, which would make you weigh more than if you were in a blue area which indicates areas of a lower gravitational force. How much more or less you would weigh is probably not much. I doubt it would be more than a 1lb difference
515. P451
Well folks, enjoy the fireworks - on my way out.
Another day another 100 degrees nearest sprinkle 200 miles away, someone please blow up that stinking high pressure! :)
A quick check in here... building moisture in Carribean, brewing time. And now checking out.
519. txjac
Poor boho ...can tell that you are frustrated. Same here in Houston although we "might" get a chance of rain starting tomorrow. Keep your fingers crossed!
In Fargo it's gotten to 95F with a DP of 73F. it feels like 104F out side.

Fortunately relief is on the way, the cold front coming through is gonns drop the DP to 50F by Wednesday. AHHHHH.
Quoting TaylorSelseth:
In Fargo it's gotten to 95F with a DP of 73F. it feels like 104F out side.
Same here. Got to 93 felt like 106. The heat is terrible everywhere this year.
Only thing that will stop this from being hottest Summer ever here is a couple of tropical storms. With 100 degrees almost every day likely in July and August it will be the most 100 degree days this part of the state has ever seen in a year.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Only thing that will stop this from being hottest Summer ever here is a couple of tropical storms. With 100 degrees almost every day likely in July and August it will be the most 100 degree days this part of the state has ever seen in a year.



faster and faster
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Same here. Got to 93 felt like 106. The heat is terrible everywhere this year.


The GFS is putting a big splotch of Dew points over 75F in the Midwest next weekend. YUCK.
525. txjac
I gotta agree with boho ...I always expect it to be hot in Texas, but dang, I have never in all my years felt heat like this. Normally we get rain but this is just too odd. Totally unnatural
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



faster and faster
KOG, I know you know much more than I do. This is weird. Pressure up and down from 1011mb to 1008mb and wind 0 mph from the SW. Is there anything significant about that ?
Quoting P451:


Question: If I'm standing in a yellow zone do I weigh more and a blue zone do I weigh less? If so...how much? Or does it not work that way...



At latitudes nearer the equator, the outward centrifugal force produced by Earth's rotation is stronger than at polar latitudes. This counteracts the Earth's gravity to a small degree, reducing downward acceleration of falling objects. At the equator, this apparent gravity is 0.3% less than actual gravity. Link

I guess it is somewhere in between an if you have your exact position and the GOCE data at hand, you could evaluate your gravity through some math formula.
The 18Z GFS is sending a TD into Texas at the very end of the run.
Quoting PlazaRed:


Just sitting here looking at what an interesting time you all have over in the Western Atlantic regions.
Now we have posts of blank pages and endless statements in abbreviations.
Is there a glossary of these mysterious capital letters? I can imagine pictures without too many problems.
No offence meant about the terminology, its just a bit obscure sometimes for us observers.
Thanks for all the info folks.


GOCE
Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer

ESA
European Space Agency

DLR
German Aerospace Center = Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt

Not sure with this one..

HPF?
High-pass filter
Actually Arlene left too much rain of what was anticipated. In Tamesí station (22°23'N 98°30'W)784 (31 in) mm of rain were recorded. In Naranjo station (22°27'N 99°18'W) 687 mm (27 in) were recorded. A large area received one to 1 1/2 feet of rain. Usually rain estimates from satellite don't reflect the true magnitude of the rain for tropical areas. Tropical air can contain as much as 10 times more moisture than air in the temperate regions, so a cloud that barely appears as a white blueish dot in real life is a puffy cumulonimbus pouring 10 inches of rain per hour which quickly dissipates after a short but very heavy downpour.
Source: The Automatic Meteorological Stations page of the "Servicio Meteorológico Nacional" (smn.cna.gob.mx), the site is in spanish. They usually make precipitation maps covering weekly rain across the country. Unfortunately, somebody is not doing his job so the most recent map is for the period of 13-19 june. I will keep an eye for new maps.
Quoting TaylorSelseth:
The 18Z GFS is sending a TD into Texas at the very end of the run.


What time period is that?






HUm....What do we have here????
Quoting FatPenguin:


What time period is that?
July 20th




Looks like Shear is beginning to lift out of the Atlantic Central Tropical Development Region....Things might be coming soon from that area in about 2 weeks!



The GFS Long Range is still showing what appears to be a tropical system near the Florida/Mississippi line area about the 20th of July!


Sure wish that ULL would stay in the Central Atlantic during this Season........I doubt that will happen tho.

Monday July 4, 2011 — Santa Fe, NM (Current Weather Conditions)

The Los Alamos fire as seen from mountaintop in Santa Fe, NM http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/viewsingleima ge.html?mode=singleimage&handle=suedoku&number=5#c ommenttop
In the Meantime at Yellowstone River..







Shear is dropping people.......!!!!
well i know nothing will develop in the gom with that large upper level low being there precluding any development for at least 2 weeks...the increasing saharan dust will stop anything in its tracks from developing off the coast of africa for at least 3 weeks...the only place is the sw caribbean a small window of opportunity exists for the next 5 days before the shear at the surface and the middle levels comes back in and keeps anything from developing...gents it looks like we are in for a boring month in the tropics for july...the bermuda azores high has set up shop in a more southerly component then last year and that shifts anything that develops more to the south goinginto the yucatan and the mexico areas...mexico is in for a very busy active severe hurricane season for 2011...southern us will continue to bake from a drought...




Nearly every Tropical Development Region is running below average Shear.......sure hope this stops soon!
Quoting cloudburst2011:
well i know nothing will develop in the gom with that large upper level low being there precluding any development for at least 2 weeks...the increasing saharan dust will stop anything in its tracks from developing off the coast of africa for at least 3 weeks...the only place is the sw caribbean a small window of opportunity exists for the next 5 days before the shear at the surface and the middle levels comes back in and keeps anything from developing...gents it looks like we are in for a boring month in the tropics for july...the bermuda azores high has set up shop in a more southerly component then last year and that shifts anything that develops more to the south goinginto the yucatan and the mexico areas...mexico is in for a very busy active severe hurricane season for 2011...southern us will continue to bake from a drought...



Yep i was talking about the A/B High setting up further South and a little further West as well last nite and early this morning..........NOT GOOD at all!!!!
Need to watch the area near 20N70W.......good 850mb Vorticity is there and Convergence is very high with Divergence as well.







546. srada
If they talking about it, then it must be revelant..
NWS, Wilmington, NC..

OTHER CONCERN IS A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME/WAVE
PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR FL AND MOVE NEAR THE SE COAST. ALTHOUGH NAM
DOES NOT GET INTO THIS PERIOD...IT DOES DEPICT A WAVE NEAR FL ON
THURSDAY WHICH LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...ALTHOUGH
CANADIAN IS A STRONG OUTLIER IN INTENSITY. GFS IS ON THE OTHER END
OF THE SPECTRUM WITH ALMOST NO NOTICEABLE TROUGH AT ALL. BELIEVE
BEST COURSE OF ACTION FOR NOW IS TO KEEP CHANCE POP ON ACTIVE
BOUNDARIES AND REALIZE THAT ENHANCED MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
547. txjac
What do the areas of negative shear mean?
hey cloudburst, hope you're having a good fourth.
549. txjac
Quoting srada:
If they talking about it, then it must be revelant..
NWS, Wilmington, NC..

OTHER CONCERN IS A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME/WAVE
PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR FL AND MOVE NEAR THE SE COAST. ALTHOUGH NAM
DOES NOT GET INTO THIS PERIOD...IT DOES DEPICT A WAVE NEAR FL ON
THURSDAY WHICH LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...ALTHOUGH
CANADIAN IS A STRONG OUTLIER IN INTENSITY. GFS IS ON THE OTHER END
OF THE SPECTRUM WITH ALMOST NO NOTICEABLE TROUGH AT ALL. BELIEVE
BEST COURSE OF ACTION FOR NOW IS TO KEEP CHANCE POP ON ACTIVE
BOUNDARIES AND REALIZE THAT ENHANCED MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.


Yep, I saw that when I was looking at the models ...from Florida straight up the coast
I think that Bret will be a storm that tracks near or in the Bahamas the up the US E coast Cindy will be a NW Caribbean storm heads into the GOM makes landfall in Texas and Don will be a Central atlantic storm moves into the Caribbean becomes a hurricane while passing through the NW caribbean makes it into the Gulf then meanders weaken and die somewhere over TX/NOLA all of this for the early-mid part of this month
551. txjac
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think that Bret will be a storm that tracks near or in the Bahamas the up the US E coast Cindy will be a NW Caribbean storm heads into the GOM makes landfall in Texas and Don will be a Central atlantic storm moves into the Caribbean becomes a hurricane while passing through the NW caribbean makes it into the Gulf then meanders weaken and die somewhere over TX/NOLA all of this for the early-mid part of this month


wow, thats pretty agressive.

I'm with you on Brett but not sure about the others
552. JRRP
aqui en santo domingo ha llovido todo el dia sin parar
Quoting txjac:


wow, thats pretty agressive.

yes I know this year is going to be agressive
Quoting TampaSpin:






HUm....What do we have here????
CMC, NOGAPS, and WRF are trying to develop a little surface trough around the Bahamas/East Cuba. This feature formed as a piece of vorticity broke off from the tropical wave currently in the Caribbean.



An upper level low in the Gulf, an upper level high in the West Caribbean, and an upper level low to the NE are creating divergence near the system which is good for thunderstorm development. Notice, however, that divergence is more displaced to the east of the storm, and it's not exactly over the surface trough. Additionally, these upper level conditions are also creating a hefty amount of shear in the area. As the upper level anticyclone expands and the upper level low to the NE moves out to the east, shear should drop a little over the surface trough. However, I do not expect development from this feature as it should continue its NW track into Florida.

Perhaps after hitting Florida it will have a chance of development. But it's really hard to tell at this point since a lot will depend on where exactly this system goes. NOGAPS, CMC, and WRF all seem to develop this surface trough. First they have the piece hitting, or more appropriately, grazing SE/E Florida and then moving out to sea getting lifted to the NE by a strung out trough. The more reliable models, the GFS and ECMWF, send the surface trough more directly into Florida. Both of these models do eventually take a piece of it out to the NE, but they do not develop it.

If we look at the forecasted 72hr surface analysis looks like the NHC agrees with the GFS and ECMWF solutions



So, it doesn't look like development with this system is likely. Perhaps in 4-5 days when it is off of Florida and back into the Atlantic it is possible as the NOGAPS and CMC seem to favor this idea. However, keep in mind that these are the less reliable models and the GFS and ECMWF solutions look much more realistic.

Anyway, Florida can expect a good amount of rain from this trough, and it will need to be kept an eye on for possible development. But do not get your hopes up.
Quoting txjac:
What do the areas of negative shear mean?

Divergence. See this map.
Quoting txjac:
What do the areas of negative shear mean?


Not sure if you are misreading the convergence chart above for a wind shear one.
Read this for info on Convergence and Divergence

Meteorology Basics: Convergence and Divergence
Link

If you're talking about the loop P451 posted, thats wind shear tendency. That is how much shear has increased or decreased during the past 24hrs.
557. txjac
Quoting bappit:

Divergence. See this map.


Wow, thanks. Something new to look at
Quoting txjac:
What do the areas of negative shear mean?
Could you post the image where you see this?

I think I may be able to explain what you're looking at, but I'm not sure exactly what you're looking at.
Lots of moisture with the surface trough

Latest TPW



Latest TPW image shows a large area of TPW values in the 2-2.5 inches range near the Bahamas, East Cuba, Hispanola region. This surface trough should bring a lot of this moisture with it as it moves NW. Expect plenty of rain in Florida, especially Wed-Sat.
Good evening

The only area of note this evening is situated just to the N of the DR. Shear has been falling, convergence and divergence look good and vorticity is on the rise along with deep convection.

Just something to watch.

Here 100 miles North of the D.R. we've been having extreme lightning this evening, but not much breeze or rain.

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Here 100 miles North of the D.R. we've been having extreme lightning this evening, but not much breeze or rain.


It looks like that is set to change overnight. Heavy thunderstorms are developing in your general area.
563. JLPR2
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Here 100 miles North of the D.R. we've been having extreme lightning this evening, but not much breeze or rain.




That's the area of disturbed weather that ruined the past weekend for me. :\
Hi Kman!
Today we had NO RAIN.
First day in many.
10.5" in June at my house, with rain on 22 days for the month.
The Breadfruit are loving this...
Quoting pottery:
Hi Kman!
Today we had NO RAIN.
First day in many.
10.5" in June at my house, with rain on 22 days for the month.
The Breadfruit are loving this...


Hi there my friend. The drought continues here sorry to say. We have had a few showers here and there but nothing of any significance. Less than 4 inches in June and for July only a third of an inch where I live. The breadfruits on my tree are not developing and are falling off due to the lack of rain. Temps around 94F every day.

We did have a little rumble of thunder yesterday but not for long.

Topping up the pool every two days.
wunderkidkayman did you wake up and dream this...the month of july has a very short window of development and that is in the sw caribbean before the strong shear moves back in due to a upper level low off the coast of haiti...shear will be at the surface and the middle levels....july may have 1 tropical storm and that will develop off the coast of honduras and move into the yucatan if that happens and thats a big if...
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there my friend. The drought continues here sorry to say. We have had a few showers here and there but nothing of any significance. Less than 4 inches in June and for July only a third of an inch where I live. The breadfruits on my tree are not developing and are falling off due to the lack of rain. Temps around 94F every day.

We did have a little rumble of thunder yesterday but not for long.

Topping up the pool every two days.

Sounds pretty Dread.
Your Breadfruit sound like our Citrus and Mangos..
Too much rain for them. Very few this year.
Trying to keep the mosquitos under control too.
Everything is saturated, and 2 trees went down last weekend from a little wind, because the soil was so wet. They just keeled over.....


Crews gain fighting New Mexico wildfire, now fear floods


(Reuters) - As firefighters made progress saving Indian pueblo lands on the north end of New Mexico's largest wildfire, officials worried on Monday about a possible second punch from Mother Nature -- flash floods.

The fast-burning Las Conchas fire exploded on the scene a week ago, triggering the temporary evacuation of the Los Alamos nuclear laboratory. It has since charred more than 123,500 acres, the biggest torching of the state's lands in history.

But forecasters say seasonal rains are finally showing up across the tinder-dry Southwest, moving toward New Mexico.

"We've gone straight from fire danger to flood danger, so it's one thing after another," said a frustrated Jason Lott, superintendent of the Bandelier National Monument, a revered ancestral home of New Mexico's pueblo Indian natives.

Lott said more than 50 percent of the park, which consists of a total of 33,750 acres, has already been scorched by the Las Conchas blaze, although the visitors center, historic lodge and the ancient Tyounyi Pueblo ruins have been spared.

Those same structures, however, may now be threatened by flash floods expected with the state's monsoon season.

"It could be tomorrow, or in a couple weeks," Lott said.

The risk to flooding has been aggravated by the raging wildfire which has burned off trees, ground-hugging grasses and vegetation, raising concerns that any run-off will barrel down canyons unchecked, causing creeks to burst their banks.

Crews at Bandelier began working on Monday to clear stream beds, removing logs and other debris creating a clearer path so waters cannot back up and flood historic sites and buildings.

Many buildings will be sandbagged and hopefully sealed from the waters, Lott said.

On the Santa Clara Indian reservation, a few miles north of Los Alamos, easterly winds gave firefighters a temporary break as they battled to block the blaze's march toward the pueblo village of about 3,800 people, said tribal spokesman Joe Baca.

"The Forest Service along with the tribal government has established a pretty good fire line on the eastern area of the fire," Baca said, adding that the line is "holding and is turning the fire back on itself."

Baca said about 14,400 acres had been scorched. It had not destroyed any pueblo structures, but because of dense smoke and lack of access it was difficult to determine what if any cultural sites remain in peril on the 55,000-acre reservation.

Meanwhile, forestry and police investigators said they have determined the origin of the mammoth Las Conchas blaze.

It was ignited on June 26 when strong winds tipped an aspen tree onto nearby power lines in the Santa Fe National Forest about 12 miles southwest of Los Alamos
. Link
Quoting TomTaylor:
Lots of moisture with the surface trough

Latest TPW



Latest TPW image shows a large area of TPW values in the 2-2.5 inches range near the Bahamas, East Cuba, Hispanola region. This surface trough should bring a lot of this moisture with it as it moves NW. Expect plenty of rain in Florida, especially Wed-Sat.
probally turn north and miss florida
Quoting islander101010:
probally turn north and miss florida
but here e cen fl we've had enough rain for a few days
Quoting pottery:

Sounds pretty Dread.
Your Breadfruit sound like our Citrus and Mangos..
Too much rain for them. Very few this year.
Trying to keep the mosquitos under control too.
Everything is saturated, and 2 trees went down last weekend from a little wind, because the soil was so wet. They just keeled over.....




The weather story everywhere this year is one of extremes. Too much rain, drought, fires etc. The satellite today was promising for us but no rain here that I know of. Some may have fallen over the sister islands to the NE but it would be nice to have one of those days where you get 3 inches over a 24 hour period.
574. Genex
I'm noticing moisture making its' way up Mexico and triggering thunderstorms in California,Arizona,and Nevada. I have been told that it is monsoon weather,but would the remnants of this storm intensify the effect?

Edit:

Just got the summary. Those storms are the remnants of Arlene.
Check out my new blog.
Click my username, on my iPhone so can't put links.
Please Comment, and I'll answer if you have questions.
My blog is my July Outlook for the tropics.
Checking in on the blog to see what is going on tonight...Nothing much happening in the Atlantic, although that could change as we enter the middle/latter part of the month.

Got some fireworks going on here, so I expect to see a couple more fires appear on the map by tomorrow morning.
Time for some TV while it's quiet :-)

Have a nice evening all.
A 10-year old girl at Topsail Beach here in North Carolina was bitten by a shark this past weekend when she was swimming in 3-ft deep water. Officials think it was a bull shark, an aggressive shark, hence the "bull" in its name. The scary thought is, I go to the same exact beach and usually swim in knee deep water.

Good evening. Hope everyone is having a happy 4th.
Fireworks are being shown all around town like it's a contest for the best show.

Enjoy the rest of your 4th folks.
Evening all. Not staying long in the blog tonight; today was long and exhausting. However,

1. We've had light rain showers here [we call it 'spry'] off and on all evening. Just enough to make u turn on ur wipers to the very slowest intermittent setting in the car, but not enough to require a rain coat or umbrella to stay dry.

2. I noticed the US Embassy had their fireworks here tonight.... every year they try to have the bigger, better fireworks display for US Independence.... lol which is usually pretty cheeky of them considering our own fireworks display is less than a week later.... lol
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think that Bret will be a storm that tracks near or in the Bahamas the up the US E coast Cindy will be a NW Caribbean storm heads into the GOM makes landfall in Texas and Don will be a Central atlantic storm moves into the Caribbean becomes a hurricane while passing through the NW caribbean makes it into the Gulf then meanders weaken and die somewhere over TX/NOLA all of this for the early-mid part of this month
That's very impressive!
Do you have any thoughts on what the S&P average will do tomorrow morning?
No fireworks out here in the Country, the $1,000.00 fine has everyone quiet.
Alright Heres my new blog:
July Outlook
Please Comment, and if you have any question about my blog post, i'll will answer you shortly...
Quoting cloudburst2011:
well i know nothing will develop in the gom with that large upper level low being there precluding any development for at least 2 weeks...the increasing saharan dust will stop anything in its tracks from developing off the coast of africa for at least 3 weeks...the only place is the sw caribbean a small window of opportunity exists for the next 5 days before the shear at the surface and the middle levels comes back in and keeps anything from developing...gents it looks like we are in for a boring month in the tropics for july...the bermuda azores high has set up shop in a more southerly component then last year and that shifts anything that develops more to the south goinginto the yucatan and the mexico areas...mexico is in for a very busy active severe hurricane season for 2011...southern us will continue to bake from a drought...
My problem with this is

1. nothing to suggest the ULL will stay there as long as u suggest

2. nothing to suggest the SAL is as bad as u suggest; i.e. MUCH lower dust levels than usual

and most importantly

3. every year I've seen the AB high this low at the beginning of July, we've had a pretty dramatic lift-out by the end of the month.... just to the NE of the Bahamas. Again, nothing guarantees this won't happen before the end of this July; additionally, a storm that moves from the CAR is at least potentially going to end up anywhere from Cuba/Bahamas to FL, or to Mid/western GoM - depending on where the "nose" of the high is. The forecasts I have seen have been quite .... disturbing ..... in this regard.

All in all, I'd rather agree with you that we'll have a relatively quiet July; if nothing else, u've got climatology on ur side. Even if u r right about July, though, that still leaves ASO, when conditions seem both ripe for development and conducive for multiple landfalls in the basin.

Should be an interesting 4 months.... or 3 if u don't count July....
Quoting BahaHurican:
My problem with this is

1. nothing to suggest the ULL will stay there as long as u suggest

2. nothing to suggest the SAL is as bad as u suggest; i.e. MUCH lower dust levels than usual

and most importantly

3. every year I've seen the AB high this low at the beginning of July, we've had a pretty dramatic lift-out by the end of the month.... just to the NE of the Bahamas. Again, nothing guarantees this won't happen before the end of this July; additionally, a storm that moves from the CAR is at least potentially going to end up anywhere from Cuba/Bahamas to FL, or to Mid/western GoM - depending on where the "nose" of the high is. The forecasts I have seen have been quite .... disturbing ..... in this regard.

All in all, I'd rather agree with you that we'll have a relatively quiet July; if nothing else, u've got climatology on ur side. Even if u r right about July, though, that still leaves ASO, when conditions seem both ripe for development and conducive for multiple landfalls in the basin.

Should be an interesting 4 months.... or 3 if u don't count July....


I'd just ignore him, he said we wouldn't see a TD out of 95L, then he said we wouldn't have a TS, and he's just trying to stir the blog up.
587. txjac
Baha has been around for a long time so I dont think that he's trying to stir the blog up. He's just more conservative
Quoting txjac:
Baha has been around for a long time so I dont think that he's trying to stir the blog up. He's just more conservative


Not Baha, cloudburst.
589. txjac
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not Baha, cloudburst.


Gotcha ...my bad lol
Baja has never been one to "stir up the blog".
He's our resident expert on the SE Bahamas and T&C.
Supercell coming towards Fargo! Tornado Warning out! TAKE SHELTER!

Quoting JRRP:
aqui en santo domingo ha llovido todo el dia sin parar
Que cosa.... quisas manana sera lo mismo aqui en Nassau...

Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

The only area of note this evening is situated just to the N of the DR. Shear has been falling, convergence and divergence look good and vorticity is on the rise along with deep convection.

Just something to watch.

This is the feature I've been watching all weekend since it's supposed to bring some genuine tropical wx our way... really the first of the season. Will be interesting to see if the models that jump on this and suggest it may spin up into something are actually on the money. Right now this trough propagating NW through the archipelago and into FL seems about the most natural wx thing to have happened here this year...
Tornado vortex signature NW of Fargo!
594. txjac
Taylor ...are you in Fargo? If so, are you blogging from the basement?
Quoting txjac:
Taylor ...are you in Fargo? If so, are you blogging from the basement?


Yeah, I'm using my phone.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'd just ignore him, he said we wouldn't see a TD out of 95L, then he said we wouldn't have a TS, and he's just trying to stir the blog up.
Actually I think he has some good points about July, climatologically speaking. The things he hit on are generally the things that WOULD normally keep July storm development to a minimum. However, this July doesn't seem as much of a "given" as last July was. There are just too many other factors kicking in.

My money would be on a storm of some kind in the last decade of the month - i.e. after the 20th. Something that would last long enough to go in to August. Of course kman may be on the money and something will come of this little wavelet passing our way this week.
My God, we are under a Tornado Warning and people are outside setting off fireworks! Idiots!
Quoting TaylorSelseth:
My God, we are under a Tornado Warning and people are outside setting off fireworks! Idiots!


During one of the 2004-2005 hurricanes here in Pompano I was on the balcony and watched some idiots driving around and ran into a wall and got stuck.
My city's fireworks display set the Melbourne Causeway on fire. Fire is on the right side of the road right before the bridge. There's our awesome firefighters coming to our rescue again. Exciting show. My view..

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Checking in on the blog to see what is going on tonight...Nothing much happening in the Atlantic, although that could change as we enter the middle/latter part of the month.

Got some fireworks going on here, so I expect to see a couple more fires appear on the map by tomorrow morning.
lol

It's only 8 here so we dont got the official firework shows going off. But all day I've been hearing random pops and booms from the average Joe who doesn't know wtf he's doing but just has to let off a firework lol.

BTW, we had some great weather today. Tropical moisture from Arlene made its was all the way up to southern California and produced a few thunderhead clouds in the distance. Got pretty hot today and a little humid, but it cooled down nicely by the evening. Also had some nice mid level clouds stretched out across the sly which made for a nice sunset.
Quoting TaylorSelseth:
Tornado vortex signature NW of Fargo!
stay safe, hopefully that tornado will stay away from people or any densely populated areas
The tropics are extremely quiet around the entire globe. Not a single storm anywhere.
605. DDR
.
4th of July was REALLY quiet in N.E. Houston. Nobody was shooting off fireworks. It's been so dry lately that even residential lawns could catch fire. No fireworks of any kind are allowed to be sold or set off in Harris County (Houston) unless its a public display by professionals.

In years past, any ban was pretty much ignored and people shot off whatever they wanted. Nobody cared and even the police turned a blind eye. This year... nobody crossed the line. Neighbors would call the police and if you get caught its a $1000 fine and up to 6-weeks in jail. The police have already said they would press all charges. BBQ's are allowed, but absolutely NO pit fires are allowed.

WE NEED RAIN!
The storm has passed. The tornado dissipated before it reached Fargo.
608. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Hi Kman!
Today we had NO RAIN.
First day in many.
10.5" in June at my house, with rain on 22 days for the month.
The Breadfruit are loving this...

16.6 inches here,also the first day with no measurable rainfall in weeks,wetter times ahead for sure,last July i got 24.25 expecting around 20 by month's end.
18z NOGAPS and 12z CMC both develop a system off the coast of the USA from a tropical wave in 7 days.
610. JLPR2
When did this happen? Last time I saw there was only a little thunderstorm. :\

Quoting DDR:

16.6 inches here,also the first day with no measurable rainfall in weeks,wetter times ahead for sure,last July i got 24.25 expecting around 20 by month's end.


Here in Florida, after dealing with severe drought over the last year or so, we are finally starting to get back into the Florida wet climate. June started out very dry by literally picking up very little or no rain at all around here but we finished the last 9 days raining every single day and ended up over 12.60 here for June!

So far to start July we have had a couple very strong storms in the area but nothing widespread, however a very wet pattern will be taking shape again over the next couple days and continuing into the weekend. Hopefully we will have a solid wet season for the first time in years! It seems to be heading that way so far!

Quoting JLPR2:
When did this happen? Last time I saw there was only a little thunderstorm. :\

nothing to get worried about, just a tropical wave with deep moisture helping to bring more needed rain to Florida in the next couple days :)
Quoting JLPR2:
When did this happen? Last time I saw there was only a little thunderstorm. :\



In the last hour. Just noticed that too~ blob forming in the SE Bahamas.
614. JLPR2
Quoting Jedkins01:
nothing to get worried about, just a tropical wave with deep moisture helping to bring more needed rain to Florida in the next couple days :)


I'm not worried, the shear in that area should keep it in check.

Nonetheless it's interesting.
How lucky, fresh ASCAT.
616. JLPR2
Quoting Skyepony:
How lucky, fresh ASCAT


Looks like a slight little something going on there.
Quoting JLPR2:


I'm not worried, the shear in that area should keep it in check.

Nonetheless its interesting.


Yeah shear was like 20-40kts.

Blobs bring more rain, definitely interesting..
XX/AOI/XX
MARK
21.75N/71.78W
Its a tropical wave interacting with a ULL. This is, I think, the same wave the CMC and NOGAPS show developing. Upper Level conditions could become more favorable, but at this time are quite hostile.
Quoting JLPR2:


Looks like a slight little something going on there.


Have to see if it persists. If it looks like that or worse by morning I'll expect atleast a Tropical Storm at the front door for the eave of the last shuttle launch. CMC has been calling it on & off for the last few days (today's). Esp the 12Z runs with the soundings. The set up looks plausible if it can get going despite some sheer.
Quoting Skyepony:


Have to see if it persists. If it looks like that or worse by morning I'll expect atleast a Tropical Storm at the front door for the eave of the last shuttle launch. CMC has been calling it on & off for the last few days (today's). Esp the 12Z runs with the soundings. The set up looks plausible if it can get going despite some sheer.


Oh no, please no. Though if so, I called it 2 weeks ago before Arlene because that's the day I need the tropics to cooperate and stay quiet.
houston we may have something here
Quoting clwstmchasr:
The tropics are extremely quiet around the entire globe. Not a single storm anywhere.
yea I noticed that yesterday, probably won't have any named storms for the next few days either. Only area of concerns are a 0% feature in the epac and a medium chance feature near the Philippines in hw wpac
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Oh no, please no. Though if so, I called it 2 weeks ago before Arlene because that's the day I need the tropics to cooperate and stay quiet.


I remember that. I've been concerned about it since it looked like a surface trough would break off the T-wave days ago & head our way. We need the rain. See the pic I posted? Melbourne's official fireworks display caught the causeway on fire. It just took a few minutes after a huge explosion rained embers, for that fire to be on top a tree.
With divergence & convergence like that it may overcome it's sheer.. The SST map..looking at what it's about to waller in, is concerning.
we may have an invest on our hands shortly maybe even something more watch how quick mom nature can be
This is the part I love. The cyclogenesis...seeing how all of this starts off and progresses or dissipates. Mother Nature is incredibly amazing!

634. Tygor
Definitely a sad 4th of July in Texas. City couldn't even have a fireworks show by professionals and fire crews on hand...just too dry. Don't remember ever having to tell the kids there would be no fireworks for July 4th.
That's one of those 4th Displays that people will tell stories about in years to come. "Remember when they caught the causeway on fire; I was there."

Glad no-one was injured, I assume.

Happy Independence Day!


Quoting Skyepony:
My city's fireworks display set the Melbourne Causeway on fire. Fire is on the right side of the road right before the bridge. There's our awesome firefighters coming to our rescue again. Exciting show. My view..

636. 7544
new bahama blob watch could this be 96l soon watching it from thisafternoon starting to blow up if still there at dmax we mayhave something to watch today stay tuned
Quoting LightningCharmer:
That's one of those 4th Displays that people will tell stories about in years to come.


I remember one in Harrisburg, PA about 15 years ago when the weather-cast was calling for off and on rain that evening. The festival along the river was incredible when moments after they started setting off the fireworks the sky gave us an incredible lightning show. Seeing both together was quite an experience and the audience was quite appreciative. It began raining during the finale but no one seemed to care...
Agreed. From watching these satellite loops over the years with my untrained eyes, that area looks like something to watch. We'll have to see what visible satellite observations show at daylight.

Quoting 7544:
new bahama blob watch could this be 96l soon watching it from thisafternoon starting to blow up if still there at dmax we mayhave something to watch today stay tuned
640. 7544
Quoting sunlinepr:


yeap put it all together looks like a coma shape to it hmmm could the cmc be right ?
641. txjac
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
houston we may have something here


Just some good drenching rain please KOG
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we may have an invest on our hands shortly maybe even something more watch how quick mom nature can be
maybe. Development right now looks iffy...but invest declaration is not necessarily based off development chances and with the close proximity to land and its forecasted trajectory to approach Florida, there's a pretty good chance this will get declared an invest.

Anyway, well have to keep an eye on it
643. JLPR2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Wind shear is dropping in the area, so much for "the shear should keep it in check." :\

Such an intense convergence and divergence could mean a low is attempting to form in the area.
x already posted
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we may have an invest on our hands shortly maybe even something more watch how quick mom nature can be


Doubt it Keeper, looks like the convergence/divergence is being provided from that ULL to its north. This is though, pretty much how Bonnie developed last year.
646. 7544
Quoting JLPR2:


Wind shear is dropping in the area, so much for "the shear should keep it in check." :\

Such an intense convergence and divergence could mean a low is attempting to form in the area.


plus 1 here
Watched fireworks in the south Florida last year, and was watching fireworks with the backdrop of distant lightning over the Everglades. Probably nothing as impressive as what you saw 15 years ago in Pennsylvania but 'beautiful nonetheless. I'll never forget it.

Quoting druseljic:


I remember one in Harrisburg, PA about 15 years ago when the weather-cast was calling for off and on rain that evening. The festival along the river was incredible when moments after they started setting off the fireworks the sky gave us an incredible lightning show. Seeing both together was quite an experience and the audience was quite appreciative. It began raining during the finale but no one seemed to care...
Quoting 7544:


yeap put it all together looks like a coma shape to it hmmm could the cmc be right ?


CMC 72 hrs

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Doubt it Keeper, looks like the convergence/divergence is being provided from that ULL to its north. This is though, pretty much how Bonnie developed last year.
iam kinda surprized how fast its taking shape already its getting that look to it you know what i mean and other information indicates it may get its chance
604

ABNT20 KNHC 050502

TWOAT



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN



no mention from hurricane centre as for now guess we wait till daylight
Warming Ocean Layers Will Undermine Polar Ice Sheets, Climate Models Show

ScienceDaily (July 3, 2011) - Warming of the ocean's subsurface layers will melt underwater portions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets faster than previously thought, according to new University of Arizona-led research. Such melting would increase the sea level more than already projected.

Link


This view of the seaward edge of Antarctica's floating Ross Ice Shelf shows a region where the ice is cracking and may produce an iceberg. (Credit: Michael Van Woert, NOAA NESDIS, ORA. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Department of Commerce.)
653. DDR
Quoting Jedkins01:


Here in Florida, after dealing with severe drought over the last year or so, we are finally starting to get back into the Florida wet climate. June started out very dry by literally picking up very little or no rain at all around here but we finished the last 9 days raining every single day and ended up over 12.60 here for June!

So far to start July we have had a couple very strong storms in the area but nothing widespread, however a very wet pattern will be taking shape again over the next couple days and continuing into the weekend. Hopefully we will have a solid wet season for the first time in years! It seems to be heading that way so far!


Thats great,i'm happy for Florida,seems the rains are catching up.
It was quiet the opposite here,we didnt have a dry season this year and its only just starting again,we have almost 6 whole months left.
201 inches having fallen here Between May of 2010 to June 30th 2011.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam kinda surprized how fast its taking shape already its getting that look to it you know what i mean and other information indicates it may get its chance


Well unlike every other blowup, two models show this developing as it gradually moves westward. However, the NHC will not mention it at 2 am or the rest of the day more than likely, they'll want to look for persistence.
it could very well fade away be nothing at all
just a area of interest at the moment
XX/AOI/XX
MARK
21.75N/71.78W
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just a area of interest at the moment


Absolutely, but it gives us something to watch in the "meantime". Call me crazy, but I like watching the ones that don't go anywhere as much as the ones that do. Don't understand all the factors like some here do but I like taking what I learn here and trying to applying it.

HWRF

deorge i like beans wit catchup, deorge tell bout how im gonna get to tend da rabbits deorge tell it.


Sorry I am bored, just finished reading that book again for at least the 7th time in my life, that story never gets old..
anyway ladies and gents children of all ages looks like its time to head out see ya all in the morning after first light



zzzzzzzzz.
Take care, KOTG
Quoting sunlinepr:

HWRF

that HWRF model run is from 6/30 and was the 60hr forecast for 7/3...just a heads up
Very broad and weak area of 850 mb vort.
Convection seems to be waning a bit in our "area of interest". Diurnal max should be in that area in a few hours, if I'm thinking right. Does anyone (if there's anyone left on) think it will have an effect?
Quoting druseljic:
Convection seems to be waning a bit in our "area of interest". Diurnal max should be in that area in a few hours, if I'm thinking right. Does anyone (if there's anyone left on) think it will have an effect?

Dmax is always helping,the question is:how much it would help?
Hey, someone is still up with me tonight!

Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

Dmax is always helping,the question is:how much it would help?


Will be up to watch it. My three day weekend started tonight, no work til Friday. Looks interesting enough to warrant attention, will see if the Dmax has any effect. Develop or not, I just love watching the process. It fascinates me!
Quoting druseljic:
Hey, someone is still up with me tonight!



Will be up to watch it. My three day weekend started tonight, no work til Friday. Looks interesting enough to warrant attention, will see if the Dmax has any effect. Develop or not, I just love watching the process. It fascinates me!

Are you Croatian?
No, I'm just the average run of the wash American. The nick came from one of my characters in an RPG. Sort of became my internet ID.

This one really has my eye. If nothing else the visual as it appears on the infrared is interesting. Cyclogenesis is a fascinating process...
I always seem to get confused on this one. Can someone explain the convergence and divergence maps and how they relate to potential tropical development?
Convergence is generally mapped at the lower levels. High convergence implies both lowered pressures/heights there and the tendency for lift.

Divergence is generally mapped at the upper levels. High Divergence implies both raised pressures/heights and again the tendency for lift.


Convergence is critical for development at the lower levels while divergence is associated with venting or exhausting. In general, Circular patterns in these two measurements are indicative of potential or occuring cyclogenesis. Other patterns can indicate other processes and are not always cyclone indicators. (ULL interaction etc)

edit to note: circular patterns aren't themselves always indicators of TC genesis, but are the most common patterns for it. Those maps aren't entirely useful by themselves, but are great tools to add to our toolbox.
Cloud top temps in the thunderstorms appear to be warming, which would indicate a slowing down in the convection. Dmax is still to come, however, so convection should continue to some degree for the next several hours. Upper level conditions remain marginal...shear is still pretty strong, but divergence is good. saw someone mention earlier "so much for shear slowing this system down" (something along these lines), and I'd just like to say moderate shear like this does not necessarily prevent convection or thunderstorms. Especially when it is associated with divergence aloft. Instead, shear usually inhibits organization, preventing blobs of thunderstorms from progressing into t storms or preventing t storms from further intensifying.

Anyway, shear should lessen somewhat, and divergence should remain aloft. However, shear will still be present and should prevent this broad area of vorticity associated with this low level trough from becoming anything...at least for the next 3 days. Additionally, this system should continue NW and head toward Florida, so it doesn't have much time.

Looking at the models, the CMC is no longer developing this system. GFS and ECMWF still do not develop this system. At the moment, only the NOGAPS develops this system.

with model confidence dropping, shear forecasted to lower but remain an issue, and land interaction coming up soon, I doubt this will develop. Anything could happen though, so we will have to keep an eye on it. also wouldn't be surprised if this gets an invest status at some point.
So is it basically akin to a lower level low and an upper level higher pressure such as with an anticylone producing favorable outflow?
Quoting druseljic:
I always seem to get confused on this one. Can someone explain the convergence and divergence maps and how they relate to potential tropical development?
well I'm assuming you are referring to the CIMSS maps (if that's not the case then let me know)

Anyway, the convergence map is for the lower levels of the atmosphere, while the divergence map is for the upper levels of be atmosphere. On the low level convergence map, positive values indicate low level convergence, while negative values indicate low level divergence. On the upper level divergence map, positive values indicate upper level divergence, while negative values indicate upper level convergence.

Now, on to what this all means...

Convergence and divergence can basically be viewed as opposites. Convergence is basically the pilling up of air, while divergence is the opposite..the spreading out of air. With regards to tropical cyclone development, you want to have upper level divergence and low level convergence. The reason being is upper level divergence draws air away from the top of thunderstorms forcing air to surge up from the surface to fill in the place of the air which is being spread out in the upper atmosphere. This action enhances thunderstorms and lowers surface pressures promoting low level convergence (as air piles up to fill in the low pressure). The reason you want low level convergence, or the pulling up of air, is because when you have air pilling up at the surface, it is forced to go somewhere. With no other direction to go, this air is forced upward, where it again promotes thunderstorms and lowers surface pressures.

To recap, you want low level convergence and upper level divergence if you want development or intensification to occur. Low level divergence and upper level convergence inhibit development or intensification. Hope this helps! Night and happy 4th!
Thanks, Tom that was a big help.
678. JLPR2
Quoting druseljic:
Convection seems to be waning a bit in our "area of interest". Diurnal max should be in that area in a few hours, if I'm thinking right. Does anyone (if there's anyone left on) think it will have an effect?




Yeah, it lost quite a bit of its punch.
Quoting JLPR2:




Yeah, it lost quite a bit of its punch.


It doesn't seem to be receiving any benefit from DMAX which should be occurring over its area now.
where is our semi permanent tutt? too much stuff going on in the basin does not look favorable
cindy anniversary here in new orleans
Quoting bigwes6844:
cindy anniversary here in new orleans


Cindy Wiki
Quoting druseljic:


Cindy Wiki
Yeah it was a horrible storm. and i rmember it was hot as hell when all da lights went out. that storm wouldnt speed up for nothing.
Good morning dayshift- looks like I'm a little early this morning.

Read thru the discussion from my local mets- they got pretty heavy hopeful wording on lotsa rain for the NE Fla region this weekend. Reading discussion from a little further down the eastern coast, not so aggressive.

Maybe it's justa tease to get me thru the week. Carrot-n-Donkey, rain-n-Aqua, even if it's just a tease, it'll work.
Morning all.

aqua, how u doing this am? Just woke up, but not getting up b4 7 if I can help it. Nice to stay in bed 4 once.... lol

I'm hoping that rain gets to us by this evening... there have been some hopeful signs. Wonder what kind of rain CRS got from this; they had spectacular light show down there in Provo last night, according to him. Looks like SE and Central Bahamas should feel the effects today....

Coming ur way, hopefully.
Hey.... looks like the rest of the early morning crew is still asleep.... lol
Hmmm.... looking nowhere as exciting as a few hours ago... but still should bring some rain.





Based on NHC/TAFB analysis, it seems the wave axis is closer to the isolated cluster of clouds over Exuma.
Good morning to all.

It was a good evening for fireworks at the Condado lagoon with clear skies.

Finnally,we will have two dry days in a row as yesterday was spectacular with sunny and warm weather and today will be the same.

TSR released their July forecast and still they are forecasting an active season (14/8/4)

Link
Quoting TomTaylor:
that HWRF model run is from 6/30 and was the 60hr forecast for 7/3...just a heads up


Don't even know why we are looking at the HWRF to begin with.
Morning folks.

Looks pretty benign out there.

Couple of earthquakes just south of Osaka, Japan, almost right on top of each other within about 15 minutes - a 4.7 and a 5.5. Moderate size, but so close to each other is peculiar.
Morning, the the eatl, catl, and the gomex are very quiet this morning. The reliabable models are showing no development for the next 10 days. This should be time for residents to start preparing for what looks to be an active season.
Good Morning All......Looks like many of the am regulars still recovering from the 4th. Hope all had a safe holiday. Tropics quiet this morning and nothing expected in the short-term so expect discussions regarding, a) the models, b) random predictions for the month of July, c) random predictions for the entire season, d) random "doom" and landfall predictions for the Caribbean and the Gulf with the current A-B high set-up, e) discussions of how the season will be a bust, f) several postings of the "peak of the season" graphic, and g) random discussions from everything from GW to Politics. Just the usual at this time of the Year............ :)
Quoting aquak9:
Good morning dayshift- looks like I'm a little early this morning.

Read thru the discussion from my local mets- they got pretty heavy hopeful wording on lotsa rain for the NE Fla region this weekend. Reading discussion from a little further down the eastern coast, not so aggressive.

Maybe it's justa tease to get me thru the week. Carrot-n-Donkey, rain-n-Aqua, even if it's just a tease, it'll work.


2011 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
94W.INVEST

Indian Ocean
90B.INVEST

Southern Hemisphere
99S.INVEST
Good morning all, hope everyone had a great holiday! Tropics Re quiet and that's ok. I know Aqua needs rain and most of Texas, i'll keep my fingers crossed for ya.
real quiet blog this am its like no one on here or what
I'm in and out doing emails. But yeah it's real quiet. We anchored out all weekend and got caught in a microburst satuday night. That opened my eyes for several hours after!
Miami NWS Discussion

A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE S BAHAMAS/E CUBA MOVES TOWARD S FLA AND OVER THE S FLA
WED NIGHT/EARLY THU AND INTO THE GULF BY EARLY FRI. THE GFS/ECMWF AND
UKMET ALL AGREE IN THIS SCENARIO WITH SOME DIFFERENCE WITH SHORTER
RUNS MODELS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE FORMER MODELS. THE
BOTTOM LINE...PASSAGE OF THE WAVE INCREASES DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING INTO THE 2-2.4 INCH RANGE WHICH MEANS
BETTER CHANCES OR RAIN THU AND FRI BEFORE A DECREASING TREND IS
NOTED AS THE ATLC RIDGE REBUILDS BRINGING IN SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
real quiet blog this am its like no one on here or what


Just lurking for now but here is a good recent article on current sea level rise: Fastest Sea-Level Rise in Two Millennia Linked to Increasing Temperatures

Link:



Link
Mornin' All

Was watching the Bahamas earlier. ULL east of Florida appears to be strengthening; blob to its southwest, 'hard to tell.
Morning everyone, so the little system north of Hispaniola was looking somewhat better this morning. Waning now, but still and area to watch in the coming days.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
real quiet blog this am its like no one on here or what



they have there own life keepr a lot of of this dont have time too blog some time and vary busy in the AMs geting ready for work and that
Area north of DR gulf bound with the ridge setting up north of it. Reminds me of the setup when Rita was steered westward in the Gulf


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 051137
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





I think they could have even said 96 hours IMO


this morning we are noticing that the cmc may try to pan out however i am not too sure if this will last however there are somethings pointing to the second name storm so either later today or tomorrow we will see if it persist.
Woo-hoo... we could use the moisture.

Looks wet from tomorrow through the weekend for Florida... I like it.
Good morning all. Hope everyone had a good July 4th. We finally got some good rain this weekend in the keys. Not enough to ruin the holiday, but enough to soak the ground and houses so when the Bubba's lit off their illegal fireworks, we didn't have a fire anywhere. Kept the temps down as well. As far as I am concerned, it can stay this way all summer:)
NAM..

A lot of rain coming at the SE coast..

Link
Since it's slow here's a laugh. Do ya think he said "Watch this!" before he did it. Lol.



Truck stuck after man tries to drive across Lake Sam Rayburn

July 04, 2011 12:29 PM
Scott Lawrence

JASPER COUNTY - by Steve W. Stewart/KJAS - An unidentified Orange man drew the ire of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers over the Independence Day weekend when he tried to drive a pickup truck across Lake Sam Rayburn, but got it stuck on an exposed mud flat. The incident happened at about 3:00 Sunday afternoon, near the eastern edge of the spillway.

According to Jasper County deputies, the man successfully drove the truck from the Twin Dikes boat ramp to Rattlesnake Island, which is a popular spot for swimming and sun bathing on its white sand beaches. However, when the people on the island complained and began calling 911, the man tried to drive the late model Ford F-250 with large mud tires back to the mainland, and that's when it bogged down on the exposed mud flat.

The lake is currently very shallow due to an ongoing drought. Normal pool level for the lake is 164 feet above sea level, but the water is currently at 155 feet.

Leon Clark and his crew from Jasper Towing & Recovery worked for six hours before they were finally able to pull the truck out of the lake at about 9:00 Saturday night. Clark said he used every truck in his fleet, and broke most of his chains and cables in the process.

Officials said the man was tested for alcohol, but there were no signs that he had been drinking.

The man was issued three citations by the Corps of Engineers which will bring hefty fines for the stunt, and he'll also have a big bill from Jasper Towing & Recovery.
NAM shows the low off the east coast of Florida..This could change of course..
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