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Heavy rains from 91L kill 11 in Honduras

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:41 PM GMT on October 21, 2008

A week of heavy rains over northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, and Belize due to Tropical Depression Sixteen and a Western Caribbean tropical disturbance (91L) have resulted in record flooding and deadly mudslides across the region. In Honduras, a nationwide state of emergency has been declared, and at least eleven people are dead and two missing from the flooding. Two large landslides blocked the Coyol River in western Honduras yesterday, forming a lake 500 feet deep. Engineers are attempting to drain the lake today, but they won't be helped by the weather--91L promises to move little the next two days, and will continue to dump heavy rains on the region. In Belize, damage is already estimated in the ten of millions, and some areas are seeing flooding worse than was experienced during Hurricanes Mitch and Keith. In northern Guatemala, at least 70 towns have been cut off by flood waters and a state of emergency has been declared. Satellite estimates (Figure 1) suggest up to a foot of rain has fallen over the region in the past week.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for the 6-day period ending at 8pm EDT Monday October 20, 2008. The darker green colors are rains of about 300mm (twelve inches). Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Visible satellite loops show that the intensity and areal coverage of 91L's heavy thunderstorms have remained about the same the past 12 hours, and are primarily affecting Belize and the east coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula this morning. The storm is located too close to land to develop into a tropical depression, and wind shear is also rather high, 20 knots.

The forecast for 91L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the 15-25 knot range over the next three days. Steering currents are weak, and little movement is likely through Wednesday. Heavy rains will affect northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, Belize, Mexico's eastern Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, and the Cayman Islands through Wednesday. A trough of low pressure swinging across the Midwest U.S. should be able to start pulling 91L northward or northwestward by Thursday. Once 91L enters the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, the trough should swing the storm to the northeast, bringing it across the west coast of Florida between Tampa and the Big Bend region on Friday night. Wind shear will be very high over the Gulf of Mexico this week, in the 30-40 knot range, and 91L is expected to make a transition to a very wet extratropical storm by Friday. The storm should bring sustained winds of 30-35 mph and heavy rains of 2-3 inches to Florida.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance, 91L.

Tuesday update on the portlight.org charity effort
A fully packed 26-foot truck is scheduled to leave Wednesday from Charleston, South Carolina, loaded with an estimated $200,000 worth of donated goods. The total cost to portlight will be approximately $5000-$7000, which will cover truck rental, fuel, lodging, and food. An additional $1750 will be spent for building materials for rebuilding over a dozen ramps for disabilities service organizations, so that clients have access to services. The goods will be delivered to Bridge City, the Bolivar Peninsula, and Houston. Wunderground member EmmyRose is giving the portlight team free room and board for the three days they will be in Texas.

Among the goods that will be delivered to the Hurricane Ike victims:

-Several cases of camping related supplies from Coleman
-$200 worth of supplies donated by Dick's Sporting Goods
-Several cases of socks from Harriss and Covington Hosiery, Inc.
-One pallet of 50 tents
-Several pallets of mens's, women's, and children's pants from Berle Mfg.
-50 manual wheelchairs donated by Cimarron Correctional Institution in Cimarron Correctional Institution in Cushing, Oklahoma, and distributed through Houston Mayors' Office on Disability Affairs
-Medical/surgical/clinical supplies to resuppy several coastal clinics operated by Gateway to Care
-7 manual hospital beds
-12 geriatric chairs on wheels
-Walkers, canes, crutches, bedside commodes
-Wound care supplies and adult diapers
-Several cases of catheters
-Several working powerchairs
-12 pallets of specifically requested supplies courtesy of WalMart
-Under garments from Haynes
-20 cases of garbage bags from Pactiv (Hefty)
-Enough food to feed a meal next Saturday to 400-500 people on Bolivar Peninsula trying to rebuild their lives. Wunderground member Vortfix has generously donated matching funds for this effort, and would like to personally challenge people to help out in a similar fashion.

In addition, the truck is stopping by Biloxi to pick up a host of cleaning supplies, moldicide, insect repellent, etc. from a group which is closing down after three years of post Katrina work.

If you'd like to make a donation to the effort, visit the portlight.org website or Stormjunkie's blog. There will also be a webcam running with live streaming video as events unfold during the trip: http://portlight.camstreams.com/. It's great to see the wunderground community coming together for this effort!

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Good update Doc!
Hmm, if this thing slides north of Tampa the surfers along the Emerald Coast could get some late season swells to ride!
91L...

Looks like a big rain producer to wrap up the rainy season.

What a great rain season we had!!

Thanks Mother Nature.
If the low level circulation redevelops under the cloud mass, isnt that a point much further north and east of where the models are generating their track from. Wouldnt that dictate a course further to the north east across sw florida?
Not even a TD and it's deadly already...



Accuweather's take....

Development Possible in the Northwestern Caribbean

Our main concern with the Atlantic Basin is with a broad area of low pressure in place over the northwestern Caribbean. Surface observations show a broad cyclonic wind flow centered just north of the northern coast of Honduras near 17 north, 86 west. This low pressure area will not move much over the next 24 hours. A deepening upper level trough over the western United States will extend into the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. This will force this low pressure area northward. During this process the system will move over very warm water while shear over the system diminishes for a short time. This will create a window of opportunity for development Wednesday, Wednesday night and Thursday.

During this time we expect the low pressure area to consolidate and become better organized. This could lead to the development of a tropical depression and even a storm just west over the southern Gulf of Mexico. However, computer models show increased shear developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Thursday night and Friday as the upper-level system moves into the eastern United States. This increased shear will prevent further development. issue will be whether this low pressure area can wrap up and strengthen quickly enough during the period of lower shear. If this development does not happen by Thursday night then it will be more difficult for this system to become an organized tropical system.
From Dr. Masters....

The storm should bring sustained winds of 30-35 mph and heavy rains of 2-3 inches to Florida.


Quoting probly:
If the low level circulation redevelops under the cloud mass, isnt that a point much further north and east of where the models are generating their track from. Wouldnt that dictate a course further to the north east across sw florida?


Hmm... not quite... yes I would see a slight eastern track... but remember that it still has a High to its N that is being pushed E by a developing trough in the C CONUS, so I wouldn't think there will be much difference from the current thinking.

Now if this system does intensify enough, it could change the dynamics and well... good luck to what will happen next. lol
Quoting IKE:
From Dr. Masters....

The storm should bring sustained winds of 30-35 mph and heavy rains of 2-3 inches to Florida.




That's at a minimum... with the assumption that 91L won't pull an Omar on us.
10. IKE
Quoting WxLogic:


That's at a minimum... with the assumption that 91L won't pull an Omar on us.


I'll stick with my thoughts....moderate TS.
Wow, what a mess in Honduras and Belize. Devastating rains. Thanks Dr. M for the update.
I find it quite interesting how a trailing trough line coming from the S Carib. Sea races NW towards the TS Cluster at a pretty good clip. To me it seems to have a mind of its own as it is pulling moisture from the afformetioned region since it can't pull enough moisture from the W and S since as we all know thats where we have land.
Thank you Dr. Masters,it looks like if this occurs,it will sweep up the east coast as a very strong extratropical storm
Quoting IKE:


I'll stick with my thoughts....moderate TS.


I agree... if this current trends continues that moderate TS could become the minimum strength of this system if shear are not as strong as forecasted.
15. IKE
Earlier numbers....

21/0545 UTC 16.0N 87.7W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean


Yesterday it was listed as "too weak".
Quoting IKE:
From Dr. Masters....

The storm should bring sustained winds of 30-35 mph and heavy rains of 2-3 inches to Florida.





...sounds like what I said yesterday and good ole "vortifix" said he saw no indications of a forcast of heavy rain,gusty winds and possible coastal flooding possiblity for FL late week...
well there you have it vorti!!!,straight from our "pa-pa's" mouth....
Quoting IKE:


I'll stick with my thoughts....moderate TS.


I concur!!!!!
Good Morning everyone...Thanks Dr. M. We continue to struggle with the flood waters and constant rains here in Belize. Schools closed in all but one district. Evacuations from low-lying areas continue and shelters are opened for the evacuees. Thankfully no deaths reported as in Honduras. People are getting weary due to the duration of this situation but we are resilient and are looking forward to improved weather in the next 24 hours! Is there anywhere I can post a couple pictures on this blog?
Has anyone seen Tampa around lately?
20. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:
Has anyone seen Tampa around lately?


Haven't seen him on here in a few days. Maybe he partied too hard after the Rays won the ALCS.

We may see a new center reform near heavy convection as i see one low moving SW in VIS loop over Hondurus
22. IKE
Quoting belizeweatherfan:
Good Morning everyone...Thanks Dr. M. We continue to struggle with the flood waters and constant rains here in Belize. Schools closed in all but one district. Evacuations from low-lying areas continue and shelters are opened for the evacuees. Thankfully no deaths reported as in Honduras. People are getting weary due to the duration of this situation but we are resilient and are looking forward to improved weather in the next 24 hours! Is there anywhere I can post a couple pictures on this blog?


Post them on here if you would like.
Quoting belizeweatherfan:
Good Morning everyone...Thanks Dr. M. We continue to struggle with the flood waters and constant rains here in Belize. Schools closed in all but one district. Evacuations from low-lying areas continue and shelters are opened for the evacuees. Thankfully no deaths reported as in Honduras. People are getting weary due to the duration of this situation but we are resilient and are looking forward to improved weather in the next 24 hours! Is there anywhere I can post a couple pictures on this blog?




you can download them and post them,you have to insert them and then hit the post comment box or you can add them to your personal pictures on WU!!!,would love to see them...
Quoting IKE:
Earlier numbers....

21/0545 UTC 16.0N 87.7W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean


Yesterday it was listed as "too weak".


NHC might bump the % by this afternoon if convection persists to a Medium threat... but won't be surprised to see a High.
If 91L becomes extratropical will it be called a southeaster?
haven't seen tampa in 3 or 4 days....
WOOHOO Thanks to VORT and PORTLIGHT we will be okay here in Houston/Galveston.
Thanks Dr. Masters for mentioning all of this

Also the inkind donations from us over here will help them keep down the costs and save Portlight money to go towards the good.
28. KBH
looks like the rains in B'dos are going south for today. Marked change in the last hour, sunny skies, looks like tht ULL is doing some good..
29. IKE
Looks like 91L is starting to move more toward the WNW and NW.
Quoting IKE:
Looks like 91L is starting to move more toward the WNW and NW.


Definitely agree... I'm not seeing any SFC obs so far indicating that the low is no longer in the S GOH... I will say NW to NNW movement.
Is another low trying to form in the GOM just north of the YP
How large is the 91l, in comparision to fla?
Quoting foggymyst:
How large is the 91l, in comparision to fla?


Well... if you take the span from E to W beginning from the associated CS debris to the E and head W to the coast of Belize you're looking at ~270NM in width. I guess you can compare to be from ORL to MIA, but since it still a bit disorganized it will be hard to tell.
Quoting IKE:


Haven't seen him on here in a few days. Maybe he partied too hard after the Rays won the ALCS.



LOL,good point
Quoting pcbdragon:
Is another low trying to form in the GOM just north of the YP


I wouldn't say GOM... more like N Gulf of Honduras (GOH).
Thanks wxlogic.
i dont think 91L will be come any stronger then a 35 mph TD may be 40mph TS but dont get your hops up on that
http://www.lovetv.com.bz/news.htm
I tried to post the link for the pics....see if it works.
And the time frame is still for fri or sat on 91l?
Well... eventhough NAM has been acting weird this past runs... the 12Z has trended towards a wetter pattern for the FL Peninsula/Panhandle regions.

Could be an indication that GFS wasn't being too aggressive on its consistent moisture fields and won't be surprised if other models trend towards the GFS solution if not a bit stronger.
Hi all!

"91L is expected to make a transition to a very wet extratropical storm by Friday"

That would explain what I was seeing in 00Z models last night...winds well displaced from center. I'm not used to seeing that in the gulf.
Quoting foggymyst:
And the time frame is still for fri or sat on 91l?


That's the timeframe for now.
Hi Rob...
how can i get to strom w's blog he's not linked on here anymore?
WxLogic- thanks once again.
Quoting WxLogic:
Hi Rob...


Hi, WX

Busy morning here, so I'm late checking in. News about Belize is exactly what I didn't want to hear. US needs to get them some aid as soon as weather clears. Think I'll make a couple calls and send some emails about that.
Quoting belizeweatherfan:
http://www.lovetv.com.bz/news.htm
I tried to post the link for the pics....see if it works.


Can't believe those people are crossing that bridge, especially considering the name ... Roaring Creek. That's how people end up in the water in their cars.
Thanks Storm
Here is mine.. not much.. just Graphics :)
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Invest ... 91L
Present Satellite, Area of Interest 91L
Thanks Storm and Orca

Will take a quick peek before I'm out for a while.
Quoting Tazmanian:
i dont think 91L will be come any stronger then a 35 mph TD may be 40mph TS but dont get your hops up on that

Why should we be hoping for something larger. There's 11 people dead already. I'm hoping for something smaller.
I do have some pics of Belize but having trouble figuring out how to post them.

Well, we are certainly sick of rain, and sick is the operative word. When everywhere you go you are wading ankle deep plus in water, you don't have waterproofs or boots so you are wet all the time, and it's much cooler than usual, the recipe is for colds, flu, painful foot infections and other ailments.

We can't get our washing dry, no mains electricity here, so no washer dyers. No big deal, except when you don't have many clothes and the wet weather has gone on for over a week.

Supplies can come in by boat, but that's three times the cost in fuel of going by road. So prices have to go up in the one small village shop. And of course, as there are severe floods in our agricultural supply areas, we can't get fresh food so easily. Onions, if you can get them, are US$3.50 a pound, and that is an important ingredient of our diet.

At least the homes in Monkey River are dry. Being at the mouth of the river protects us from the worst of the flooding.

We are just praying for this 91L to move away soon - and of course, to do no more damage on its way to oblivion!
Quoting StormW:
Out for now.


l8r...
Just checking in this morning. Rather late for my usual Tuesday appearance, but have been handling other biggers things this morning.

Anyways, I don't know about everyone else, but it has become hard-pressed to find a defined low-level circulation this morning with Invest 91L. Seems like land interaction has disrupted the system and no longer is organized. There has been an impressive convective burst to the northeast which I will be watching for a possible circulation center relocation, but there are no signs indicating such occuring at this time.

About the only concern at this time will be enhanced rainfall over Florida later this week as this lifts northward and gets drawn into a strong cold front currently moving across the Midwest.

But, I will pray for those who have lost their lives from this weak disturbance. Sometimes the weakest disturbances can be the deadliest.
neat little spin over the boc our system 91 still can become a cyclone dont discount it. even weak systems can cause problems like short lived tornados. good luck
91L looks much better today than it did last time I checked last evening.

Tough w/o surface obs, but the more I look at the structure, the more I think coc might be developing at 17.3N/85.9W

Link
61. 7544
the blob to the ne of 91l is showing up good will it start to move n then ne over fla too . and is it sepreate from 91l

Link
Live from Belize giving conditions. Real Audio

LINK

edit: credit to belizeweatherfan for original link
Hey All -

Just looking at the models - Looks like the GFS is developing something - Maybe the blob NE of 91L - Right off the coast of south Florida in 48 hrs.

Any thoughts on this?

Thanks!
64. 7544
Quoting NoNamePub:
Hey All -

Just looking at the models - Looks like the GFS is developing something - Maybe the blob NE of 91L - Right off the coast of south Florida in 48 hrs.

Any thoughts on this?

Thanks!


thats what i was seeing too and local news says all the moisture ther now not from 91l will be in se fla thurs and fri . so if its a differnt blob it might form too
Good afternoon from Lake Worth , Florida
look like 91L might be trying to form a center around 18n/86w
Quoting stormpetrol:
look like 91L might be trying to form a center around 18n/86w


I think so too... see post 60.
And, quite a different ballgame if it proves to be anywhere near there.
Quoting Seastep:


I think so too... see post 60.


glad someone else noticed, thought my eyes might have been playing tricks on me.
Quoting stormpetrol:


glad someone else noticed, thought my eyes might have been playing tricks on me.


I saw it, shows up on WV Loop also, hard to say without surface observations or sat wind data. but interesting.
Hi, melly!
Quoting RobDaHood:


I saw it, shows up on WV Loop also, hard to say without surface observations or sat wind data. but interesting.


For what it's worth, there is the sat overlay winds from the NNW at Roatan.
73. 7544
even if 91l forms look where the front is on thurs itr should not go that far north as tampa or big bend imo but it will turn further south
Interesting that they just removed the "L" from the overlay on sat. And, when it was there, they had it at 87W, not 88W as they said in the 8am discussion.
hmmm, could just be a freak thing but the convection sure looks to be wrapping more every hour.

Gotta run for now, guess we'll have our answer soon. I hate systems like this.
Finally the 15Z Shear maps came out and there's an ULAC starting to develop in the GOH... which further correlates to the increasing area in the divergence aloft and low level convergence. So if it keeps it up and stays where it is away from the stronger shear to its N it could have the potential to get better organized before it moves into the GOM which latest steering maps are pointing towards a WNW to NW motion.
good sized windswell in ne Florida now-same setup last 3 weeks-hard onshores for a few days, then 1 day of offshores or light onshores-and that would be tomorrow-putting the board on the car now....
78. 7544
Quoting Seastep:
Interesting that they just removed the "L" from the overlay on sat. And, when it was there, they had it at 87W, not 88W as they said in the 8am discussion.


maybe they going to relocate it like you guys see
Quoting Seastep:
Interesting that they just removed the "L" from the overlay on sat. And, when it was there, they had it at 87W, not 88W as they said in the 8am discussion.


No models have been run on 91L since 00Z.

G'day all.
The rains that have been falling in Barbados, seem to be coming my way. Some rain just to my east and southwest now. Some rumblings about. Looks like DDR and others along the northern range are getting wet again.
I live in hope.

The Atlantic is looking dry (the sky over the Atl that is) LOL
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


No models have been run on 91L since 00Z.



I believe they don't run models for system that have less than 20% chance of developing.
Quoting pottery:
G'day all.
The rains that have been falling in Barbados, seem to be coming my way. Some rain just to my east and southwest now. Some rumblings about. Looks like DDR and others along the northern range are getting wet again.
I live in hope.

The Atlantic is looking dry (the sky over the Atl that is) LOL


Hope it will be enough rain to water the plants... hehe.
83. 7544
still on navy site 91l
91L doesn't seem like its gonna do much except be a weekend ruiner here in florida :(
TS force 1-min wind from the SE at this buoy w quite a wind pick-up in general.

Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
1629 37.1 kts SE ( 133 deg true )

Also noticed they have
Me too Logic. Its a serious consideration. Me and the wife have spent 20 years planting a garden. 5 acres, 128 species of trees (never counted the shrubs, heliconias, palms, bromeliads, and other stuff. Our propagation area, and the grow-out area needs wetting if it does not rain, and we depend almost entirely on rain water catchment.
I can capture 60,000 gals per year, off my roof, but I have nowhere to put it ! Feast and famine with rainfall here.
Its all good....
Quoting WxLogic:


I believe they don't run models for system that have less than 20% chance of developing.


This could be why:

21/1145 UTC 14.2N 88.0W TOO WEAK 91L
I guess if something gets going there, it will be a new invest.
Quoting pottery:
Me too Logic. Its a serious consideration. Me and the wife have spent 20 years planting a garden. 5 acres, 128 species of trees (never counted the shrubs, heliconias, palms, bromeliads, and other stuff. Our propagation area, and the grow-out area needs wetting if it does not rain, and we depend almost entirely on rain water catchment.
I can capture 60,000 gals per year, off my roof, but I have nowhere to put it ! Feast and famine with rainfall here.
Its all good....

Sounds beautiful. How many inches of rain a year do you get there?
The continuing relief effort by Portlight, which involves so many people, is quite incredible.
Fantastic job........
Quoting WxLogic:
I believe they don't run models for system that have less than 20% chance of developing.


Not so fast my Friend -
Some models - Like GFS - CMC etc are run regardless of a system.
Rainfall at my house averages seven feet two inches ( 12 yr average)
It falls between June and December. In the mountains on the northern range ( 3000 ft) it averages 12 Ft !
You can google-

trinidad and tobago ( its a twin-island state).
That must have been a very large mud slid to make a lake 500 feet deep. Would like to see some pictures of that. Speaking of Tampa, I haven't seen him on the blog for quite a few days. Phillies vs the Rays. Sorry NE, I was looking for the Red Socks and they did put up a good fight.
aren't the models run regardless if there is a tropical system or not just for ordinary weather forcasting?
Pottery - I live in Arizona, though work all over the place. In Tucson where I live the average rainfall is about 7 inches, yet amazingly, there is still a lot of vegetation - it's just stuff that grows well in arid lands.
re: Wunderground member Vortfix has generously donated matching funds for this effort, and would like to personally challenge people to help out in a similar fashion.


WOO HOO, WAY to put your money where your mouth, is vort- i am very proud to be a member of this community, Please won't you all take a moment to send a box of love or a money donation to the effort?? portlight is providing HOPE for so many!

jo
Did I say about 7 inches a year? When it rains there, we all go out on the patio and sit and watch it. Best entertainment of the summer!
99. 7544
Quoting pcbdragon:
aren't the models run regardless if there is a tropical system or not just for ordinary weather forcasting?


yes but the speghitti model only runs if there is a invest hope this helps
Quoting lawntonlookers:
That must have been a very large mud slid to make a lake 500 feet deep. Would like to see some pictures of that. Speaking of Tampa, I haven't seen him on the blog for quite a few days. Phillies vs the Rays. Sorry NE, I was looking for the Red Socks and they did put up a good fight.


Thats ok,we did put up a good fight,but the better team won,I'm looking for good things from tampa in the series.
Tropictravveller.
My sister is in Green Valley, near Tuscon. Visited them there a few yrs. ago, had a great time visiting potteries and pueblos all over there and NewMx. Did 2 weeks in a camper-home. Wonderful place. The air quality there is incredible, unlimited visibility almost.
Loved Bosque del Apache, the Chiricawas (sp?), and lots of other places too.
Nice place, and SO different to here...
Quoting NEwxguy:


Thats ok,we did put up a good fight,but the better team won,I'm looking for good things from tampa in the series.


It's gonna be a good series.. Especially if Philys big hitters start making contact with the ball.. Tampa should be good for a good amount of time (being that this yr wasn't a fluke!) They are super young and have an amazing pitching staff
I miss it when I'm away. I live at the foot of the Catalina Mountains and love going out in the morning and checking out the birds waking up and the light changing the colors on the rock faces.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. PRESSURES HAVE RISEN IN THIS AREA AND THE SYSTEM
REMAINS DISORGANIZED. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS THE
SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH
Tropic, Mail to you.
Quoting Seastep:


This could be why:

21/1145 UTC 14.2N 88.0W TOO WEAK 91L


Ahh Haa, That was the LLC booking off to the south west.
I see the NHC is still calling for 91L to go West from where it is, in the short term.
108. 7544
91l might be done deal now focus on the blob to the ne of it it may be a new system soon imo
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Ahh Haa, That was the LLC booking off to the south west.


The High in NE Florida has been pushing it that way I think
Quoting 7544:
91l might be done deal now focus on the blob to the ne of it it may be a new system soon imo


Eh it prob is but its still gonna cause a few gloomy days here in florida
it looks like there's a anti-cyclone starting to develop over the 91l....
107. pottery

I saw that too but it's curious consdering the NHC moved the yellow circle for development more to the East with their last update.
Quoting stillwaiting:
it looks like there's a anti-cyclone starting to develop over the 91l....


Just came here to post that
. This must be the short window of opportunity talked about.
69, well spotted. I had not noticed the east movement of the circle.....
Pottery,

Looks like you may have a little dab of wet stuff headed your way.
noticed that the pressures were dropping in Cuba.
Yeah Rob, been watching, waiting, hoping.
Its raining in the south, north, everywhere...
Interesting how that rain dropped south from up over Barbados. Not a usual thing.
Afternoon all

Busy loading the truck and getting ready to leave in the morning.

Rainman on the way up here. View it live!
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

HIGH PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE E AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW GULF LATE WED AND
EXTEND FROM THE SE LOUISIANA COAST TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU
AFTERNOON AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FRI AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT
AND E OF THE AREA SUN. LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP E OF THE
FRONT OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF LATE THU THEN MOVE INTO THE NE
GULF FRI THEN INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA FRI NIGHT.
STRONG NLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DECREASE FROM W TO E FRI AND SAT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS E OF THE FRONT WILL BE N OF THE LOW PRES CENTER.

ATLC STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL DISSIPATE
WED. RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WED THROUGH FRI. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST EARLY SAT AND WILL EXTEND
FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA SUN AFTERNOON. STRONG ELY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA N OF 25N THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE W AND THE RIDGE TO THE E WILL INCREASE THE
WINDS N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT TO 30 KT SAT AND EARLY SUN THEN
DECREASE LATE SUN.

THE LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS DISSIPATED WITH A TROUGH NOW
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
STILL
PLENTY OF TSTMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE TYPICAL
TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SAT AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO BELIZE BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST NLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER DGS. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

Quoting StormJunkie:
Afternoon all

Busy loading the truck and getting ready to leave in the morning.

Rainman on the way up here. View it live!


Now that is just TOO COOL! Thanks for link.
Way cool StormJunkie!
Rob has the Cam on!
ROFL!!!

119. StormJunkie

Hey, man! Thanks for the link, we'll be watching! You guys stay safe, and we'll be thinking of and saying prayers for you and those you are helping.
watching as we speak!
Quoting Clickerous:


It's gonna be a good series.. Especially if Philys big hitters start making contact with the ball.. Tampa should be good for a good amount of time (being that this yr wasn't a fluke!) They are super young and have an amazing pitching staff


Its their age that amazes me more than anything
Quoting pottery:
Yeah Rob, been watching, waiting, hoping.
Its raining in the south, north, everywhere...
Interesting how that rain dropped south from up over Barbados. Not a usual thing.


Lotta wierd stuff this year!
127. DVG
Using infrared ch2 of the invest floater, the center seems apparent enough.
Quoting vortfix:
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

HIGH PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE E AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW GULF LATE WED AND
EXTEND FROM THE SE LOUISIANA COAST TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU
AFTERNOON AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FRI AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SAT
AND E OF THE AREA SUN. LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP E OF THE
FRONT OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF LATE THU THEN MOVE INTO THE NE
GULF FRI THEN INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA FRI NIGHT.
STRONG NLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DECREASE FROM W TO E FRI AND SAT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS E OF THE FRONT WILL BE N OF THE LOW PRES CENTER.

ATLC STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL DISSIPATE
WED. RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WED THROUGH FRI. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST EARLY SAT AND WILL EXTEND
FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA SUN AFTERNOON. STRONG ELY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA N OF 25N THU. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE W AND THE RIDGE TO THE E WILL INCREASE THE
WINDS N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT TO 30 KT SAT AND EARLY SUN THEN
DECREASE LATE SUN.

THE LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS DISSIPATED WITH A TROUGH NOW
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
STILL
PLENTY OF TSTMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE TYPICAL
TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SAT AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL
CUBA TO BELIZE BY SUN AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST NLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL MOSTLY BE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER DGS. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.



Sweet music to my ears! However my prayers go out to Hondorus.
hello all. umm does anyone know what the conditions are in Tegucigalpa, Honduras? I have a neighbor living in a fema trailer{courtesy of IKE} who has family there in VILLA CRISTINA. They are very worried because they heard of flooding & mudslides there & have been unable to reach any fam or friends there!!! Any help would be great & any weather sites that may post other specific news for that area would be great!! THANKS
Quoting messageinabottle:
hello all. umm does anyone know what the conditions are in Tegucigalpa, Honduras? I have a neighbor living in a fema trailer{courtesy of IKE} who has family there in VILLA CRISTINA. They are very worried because they heard of flooding & mudslides there & have been unable to reach any fam or friends there!!! Any help would be great & any weather sites that may post other specific news for that area would be great!! THANKS


Choluteca, HO (Airport)
Updated: 1:00 PM CST on October 21, 2008
Drizzle
82 °F / 28 °C
Drizzle
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: 77 °F / 25 °C
Wind: 5 mph / 7 km/h / 2.1 m/s from the South
Pressure: - / -
Heat Index: 91 °F / 33 °C
Visibility: 6.2 miles / 10.0 kilometers
UV: 7 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 3200 ft / 975 m
Mostly Cloudy 25000 ft / 7620 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 157 ft / 48 m
Quoting stormdude77:


Choluteca, HO (Airport)
Updated: 1:00 PM CST on October 21, 2008
Drizzle
82 °F / 28 °C
Drizzle
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: 77 °F / 25 °C
Wind: 5 mph / 7 km/h / 2.1 m/s from the South
Pressure: - / -
Heat Index: 91 °F / 33 °C
Visibility: 6.2 miles / 10.0 kilometers
UV: 7 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 3200 ft / 975 m
Mostly Cloudy 25000 ft / 7620 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 157 ft / 48 m


thank you.
Steady rains increase flooding, threaten disaster in Honduras

TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras -- The sun shone brightly on this capital city Tuesday, but authorities said the national weather emergency had worsened, albeit slightly, and was not yet at an end.

The death toll Tuesday morning stood at at least 12 people, two more than Monday, and the number of people displaced by floods or who were receiving assistance reached almost 130,000 -- or about 10,000 more than Monday.

Constant rain over the past 10 days, caused first by a tropical depression and later by a stalled low-pressure system over the Atlantic coast, swelled rivers and sparked widespread flooding in villages and city suburbs from San Pedro Sula to Tegucigalpa, the country's two main cities.

The rainfall and flooding recalled the death and destruction caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998. But so far Tuesday morning, the misery caused by the current rain and flooding seemed not as disastrous as when Mitch struck Honduras and Nicaragua, killing thousands.

Nevertheless, authorities warned that a major disaster was still possible because rivers continue to rise and the rain has not stopped in the northwestern part of the country -- even if the sun broke through the clouds in Tegucigalpa for the first time in days.

The seemingly unending rain, flooding and swollen rivers created a sense of widespread panic.

Hundreds of residents in villages and the suburbs of San Pedro Sula telephoned Channel 6, a TV station in San Pedro Sula, throughout the night expressing concern about rising rivers in the region.

''Several families were forced to flee their homes and are now on the side of the road, under the persistent rain and without food or belongings,'' said Arnulfo Mendoza, a man who called Channel 6 about 5 a.m. Tuesday from a village known as Remolinos.

He said the Ulua River had overflowed its banks nearby and covered streets and farm fields.

Channel 6, which stayed on the air all night with special programming, received hundreds of calls from around the area and the country with similar accounts of rivers rising and general alarm. Channel 6 even got a call from a Honduran viewer in Miami who expressed concern about his native village of La Lima, south of San Pedro Sula.

''We are praying for all our compatriots down there,'' Edgar Gomez told Channel 6 as he watched the broadcast on the Internet in Miami.

Channel 6 and other Honduran TV stations showed images on their Tuesday morning news shows of villages where streets were flooded and water rose almost to the roofs of nearly submerged homes. The stations also showed video of rescue crews in motor boats or canoes transporting women and children from the outskirts of flooded villages to higher ground.

Pain and chaos, said the huge headline on Tuesday's front page of the Tegucigalpa newspaper El Heraldo. ``At least 12 dead by rains, including a family in the capital. Government decrees national emergency. More than 128,000 affected.''

A mud and rock slide buried a house near Tegucigalpa Monday, killing a 38-year-old mother, Dominga Judith Alvarado, and her young children: 10-month-old Felipe Vasquez Alvarado, 8-year-old Alberto Aguilar Alvarado and 11-year-old Yeimi Sarahi Aguilar. Also killed was a 20-year-old neighbor, Sonia Yoselin Amador, according to Tegucigalpa media.

Despite the national emergency declared Monday night by President Manuel Zelaya, most business activity in Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula appeared to continue normally.

Roads were open and dry in Tegucigalpa Tuesday morning and the sun shone brightly after sunrise, following another night of rain.

By midmorning in Tegucigalpa, clouds had receded for the first time in days, but thick thunderclouds were visible above the mountains surrounding the capital.

Power and telephone communications seemed normal in both Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula.
Link
Quoting messageinabottle:
hello all. umm does anyone know what the conditions are in Tegucigalpa, Honduras? I have a neighbor living in a fema trailer{courtesy of IKE} who has family there in VILLA CRISTINA. They are very worried because they heard of flooding & mudslides there & have been unable to reach any fam or friends there!!! Any help would be great & any weather sites that may post other specific news for that area would be great!! THANKS


quick news search:

Miami Herald

Google AP

Rainfall Totals La Choluteca Honduras.

To convert to inches divide by 2.54.



image credit www.fallingrain.com
Ahead - more rains, more trouble …

As we go to press tonight, the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) has extended its watch from the Cayo District to the Belize, Orange Walk and Corozal districts, as a tropical disturbance over Belize, possibly the remnants of tropical depression #16, and stormy weather over Peten, Guatemala, are expected to dump even more water over Belize’s already waterlogged terrain.

The biggest focus is on the Belize River Valley area, which is expected to experience major and possibly unprecedented flooding over the next few days.

Acting Chief Meteorologist, Ramon Frutos, told Amandala tonight that the tropical disturbance is already affecting coastal areas of Belize, even though most of it is still over the sea.

“The system of low pressure will move north and then northwest, and it will produce a lot of rain, most likely over Orange Walk and Corozal, and also coastal areas of the Belize District,” he informed us.

The computer models, said Frutos, show that rainfall could be concentrated inland of northern and central Belize. Belize City, specifically, could get a lot of rains.

“By Wednesday we could see conditions improving a bit, but most of this week Belize should be experiencing rains, though not as intense as we would be getting tonight and tomorrow, within two to four inches,” Frutos told us.

That downpour, incidentally, will merge with flood waters traveling to the coast from the west of Belize, which has been experiencing massive flooding since Friday.

It will add to the run-off expected over north and central Belize, which could exacerbate flood conditions, said Frutos.

He told us that even though there have been reports of falling water levels in Cayo, more rains over Belize could cause flood waters to rise again. More than that, forecasters have observed some convection over Peten, Guatemala, that could spawn further rains out west in the days ahead.

“The heaviest convention is off the coast of western Honduras and the Bay Islands,” said Frutos, noting that Belize is not the only country suffering the disastrous weather.

He told us that both the Peten and Isabel departments of Guatemala experienced major flooding starting Thursday, of the magnitude seen in Cayo this weekend.

“Rain knows no borders,” said Frutos.

Even though forecasters say that the tropical disturbance now affecting Belize will turn north over Yucatan and enter the Gulf of Mexico, it could strengthen even more before it reaches Florida in the USA.

Meanwhile, officials are ensuring that Cayo residents displaced from their homes by the flood are being taken care of. NEMO’s public relations officer, Rene Mendez, reported to our newspaper this evening that today three boats with supplies were dispatched to Calla Creek and Bullet Tree Falls in the Cayo District, and supplies were also taken to families sheltered at the IT-VET. At press time, the San Antonio and San Victor Villages in Corozal, and San Roman and Douglas Villages in Orange Walk, were also under watch, as water levels are reportedly rising in those flood-prone areas.

Belize District NEMO coordinator, Philip Willoughby, told Amandala this evening that the district team remains on high alert, and have prepared and secured vehicles from the National Transport Committee of NEMO to be on standby in the event that they need to rescue people and evacuate them to relatives or to shelters over the next few days.

“We also have a committee for search and rescue activated along with the Police, Fire Department, and BDF. The relief and supplies committee is able to provide some sort of supplies for shelterees,” said Willoughby.

In the event that residents of the Belize District do need to evacuate to shelters, the DEMO (Belize District) coordinator said they will be opening Gwen Lizarraga High School and St. Michael’s High School on the Southside, and All Saints and Trinity Methodist on the Northside. Other shelters would be dedicated, if needed, he added.

Persons needing help in the Belize District area are asked contact the Police Department, the Fire Department, the BDF, or councilor Willoughby at 628-6947.

Willoughby emphasized that residents should not take chances with their lives if asked to evacuate.

The Chief Met Officer, Mr. Frutos, cautioned that the Belize District area should expect that all that flood water from Cayo is headed into the lower Belize River Valley area, and will add to the existing flood in the Crooked Tree Lagoon.

“We will see water rising tonight, continuing to Tuesday. We could get unprecedented floods in the Belize District come Tuesday to Thursday, and many villages could expected to be cut off,” he warned.

Frutos told us that the last time Belize experienced such major flood conditions was in 1995 – when the Mollejón dam was undermined, and broke.

And while it was not as bad as that 1995 flood, this weekend’s catastrophe has been said to be even worse that the pummeling Belize took from Hurricane Keith eight years ago, in 2000.

Frutos recollects that Keith’s impact was extensive, as it dumped almost 31 inches or more over the Belize District, inundating many parts of the lower Belize River Valley. The waters took 3 to 4 months to dry off.

As the week progresses, and the present tropical disturbance moves inland and away from Belize, the central and north of Belize could still experience intermittent showers, as the residue of the tropical disturbance lingers over us well into the end of the week, Frutos forecasts.
Link
Just checking back in. With all of the blogers on WU from Flordia, I will still be watching the Rays. I just like the line up for the Phillies with Utley, Howard, Victorino and etc. Even in the post season the pitchers and the catcher Ruiz have been getting some hits. Sometimes I get upset with the pitching staf though. What does the forcast in Philadelphia look like for Saturday, Sunday and Monday night?
Looking to me more and more like 91L may not do anything, BUT, a quick disturbance could pop up in the Bahamas, strike SE Florida Thursday and get absorbed....
Quoting lawntonlookers:
What does the forcast in Philadelphia look like for Saturday, Sunday and Monday night?


The short version: cold and wet

Long Version:


Saturday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Saturday Night: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 51. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday: A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 54.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 37.
17-18n 87w is where an elongated circulation is forming after that other swirl disappeared into land eariler off to the s. I see a subtropicalish storm or something like barry forming in the gulf.
something is going to form on the east coast,either from 91L moving up over florida or a low forming over the carolinas,or a combination,but should be interesting along the east coast this weekend.
Quoting HurricaneKing:
17-18n 87w is where an elongated circulation is forming after that other swirl disappeared into land eariler off to the s. I see a subtropicalish storm or something like barry forming in the gulf.


What Barry are you talking about? 2007?
Whats this about a disturbance off the south east coast of Florida?
does anyone know how i could find out about a specific villa in honduras? still trying to find out about VILLA CRISTINA in tegusigalpa... worried they may have been flooded out. thanks for everyones responses so far, but teguc is so large that without having specific villa info it can be so very different from one place to the next. we just think its unusual not to be able to contact 15 different people in one villa??
Quoting NEwxguy:
something is going to form on the east coast,either from 91L moving up over florida or a low forming over the carolinas,or a combination,but should be interesting along the east coast this weekend.


Yep, that gameday(s) forecast subject to change without notice...Probably a good time to be inside a stadium or your livingroom watching a ballgame.
HYDROMET Bulletin #12 from the Belize National Meteorological Service.
Florida??
what did I miss?
something definitely going on near belise but the system seems to be moving onshore again?
Quoting pcbdragon:


What Barry are you talking about? 2007?


Yes. It's the one that formed in all the shear.
I would say 91L could probably make it to at least a 40mph ts once it gets farther away from land. It has pretty good convection right now.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Invest ... 91L
Present Satellite, Area of Interest 91L

Present Satellite, Area of Interest BOC/Western Caribbean
Present Satellite, Area of Interest Southern Florida
Present Satellite, Area of Interest Trinidad & Tobago
144. messageinabottle

Haven't been able to find anything with more specific info than what has already been posted. Will look some more this evening and let you know if I find anything useful.

I would imagine they have some infrastructure problems, and based on previous flooding events, massive evacuations, either of which would explain your communications problems.
Quoting messageinabottle:
does anyone know how i could find out about a specific villa in honduras? still trying to find out about VILLA CRISTINA in tegusigalpa... worried they may have been flooded out. thanks for everyones responses so far, but teguc is so large that without having specific villa info it can be so very different from one place to the next. we just think its unusual not to be able to contact 15 different people in one villa??


Having been in Honduras several years ago (Tegucigalpa included), often times, like in other similar types of "villas" in Central America or the Caribbean, there may be only one actual telephone in the lobby (no phones in the individual rooms) and a desk clerk will often come to advise a guest that they have a call..........If flooding has caused the Villa to evacuate, or, just brought the phone system down, you won't be able to speak to a guest unless they have a personal cell phone (and they may have lost cell phone coverage because od flooding issues)........Other than that, you should call Tegucigalpa "information" (need someone who speaks Spanish on the line with you) to see if they have the Villa listed and confirm that you have been dialing the right number...........
Invest 91L is already a SERIOUS STORM SYSTEM. It has not developed into a trop. Storm, but it has already brought death and major destruction to large areas. Like Omar, it has sat over one area for a long time. Omar, fortunately, sat over the sea.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Florida??
what did I miss?


random statement...no link...who knows?
Quoting RobDaHood:


random statement...no link...who knows?


I just put up a sat graphic on my blog.. just rain. But if you say the F word.. people panic.
Hi all.
ORCA, very strange weather here.
Press. 1011 steady
temp 84 F
wind ENE 7 mph
Raining in north and south of the Island.

No rain for me, in Central, again.
What did I do wrong.
Begining to feel some doubts about my innocence here.....





Quoting Orcasystems:


But if you say the F word.. people panic.


AAAAAHHHHHHHHH! Oh wait, never mind, you didn't actually say it. :)
Seriously why does Dr. Masters still use the sattelite rain estimate product? Its basically the worst and most innacurate way of measuring rain available and is far too conservative...

Every time he uses it for tropical systems, it will estimate like 1 inch per hour max raion rates in eyewalls of hurricanes that are easily outputting 5+ per hour...

And Ive seen actual reports be up to 4 times higher then sattelite estimates....


For example, hes saying that flooding is almost worse in some spots then during Mitch? Well sattelite says only isolated spots up to 12 inches...

Mitch dumped widespread 20 to 30 with up to 75 inches in some spots...

And resports over 30 inches in central america are there so obviously sattelite rain products are terrible.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I just put up a sat graphic on my blog.. just rain. But if you say the F word.. people panic.


Thanks for the graphic, looks like a typical south FL day to me!
Good point, Jedkins-
Yea, say the "F" word on here, people call you a Floridacaster and always wanting to hit Florida (Not the regulars like Ike, Pat, Orca, ect.)
The F word?
We will have to wash your mouth out with soap.
LOL
Did Voortex get a lifetime ban ???
Pottery

Your claim to innocence must have angered the local rain diety...

Did you see Orca's graphic? Looks like if you ran up the nearest hill and held up a bucket you'd catch some.
Can't talk now... getting shutters. ;-)
Always interesting reading here:


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
222 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2008

Yeah Rob, saw that. Its raining all around me !!
I think I will make a sacrifice later this evening to the rain godlings.
I am prepared to Kill 10 mosquitos, and demolish a portion of fine rum.
That should pacify them.

( but wait, I've been doing that......)
I can assure you that the flooding in Belize is of epic proportions. It is the worst since hurricane Hattie in 1961.

Damage to the corn crop is already estimated at over $10million
Thanks for that link, VORTFIX.
According to that, rainfall of 5-15 mm/day, from Tomorow.
15mm is just over 1/2 "
Bring it on..
Quoting pottery:
Yeah Rob, saw that. Its raining all around me !!
I think I will make a sacrifice later this evening to the rain godlings.
I am prepared to Kill 10 mosquitos, and demolish a portion of fine rum.
That should pacify them.

( but wait, I've been doing that......)



LOL!!!! OH TOO FUNNY!!!
Yellowtail, see my post 154.
A really serious situation there........
168. pottery

a few drops of bitters ought to fix it...

167. vortfix

Thanks for the link...good info...will remember for future

Outta here for a while, lite the grill, cook something bloody, sip the rum. Beautiful day again, hope all the rest of you get the weather you wish for soon. (except flcasters)

-rob
Quoting FLdewey:
Can't talk now... getting shutters. ;-)


Shutters? What kind?
For those that may have missed these earlier.

Live from Belize giving conditions. Real Audio

LINK

edit: credit to belizeweatherfan for original link

HYDROMET Bulletin #12 from the Belize National Meteorological Service.

edit: and now the flood forecast
Quoting sugarsand:


Shutters? What kind?


Oh, he can't talk now. And I haven't even broke out the rum yet. Not 5:00.
177. DDR
Hi pottery & everyone else
Floods in diego martin ,Trinidad this afternoon.
Good Afternoon all! I see that persistence in the Caribbean continues to clobber Belize and Honduras. Any precip forecasts for this system once it heads into the GOM?
Quoting RobDaHood:
144. messageinabottle

Haven't been able to find anything with more specific info than what has already been posted. Will look some more this evening and let you know if I find anything useful.

I would imagine they have some infrastructure problems, and based on previous flooding events, massive evacuations, either of which would explain your communications problems.

thanks rob, we kinda figured that. had some flooding in other areas there last week or two weeks ago from td 16 & we couldnt get in touch then we talked to them & they said they actually had nothing, just lost phones for 1 week & power for only 1 day, hoping for a repeat like that, but, the flooding & dev is so bad this time on the already saturated grounds. my friend said Hurr Mitch in 98 I believe caused landslides there in that VILLA!!! =0 ahhh mother nature, she is showing her strength in full effect right now... THANKS AGAIN ROB & everyone else who posted a response...=D its much appreciated & all was helpful.
Good evening...
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Having been in Honduras several years ago (Tegucigalpa included), often times, like in other similar types of "villas" in Central America or the Caribbean, there may be only one actual telephone in the lobby (no phones in the individual rooms) and a desk clerk will often come to advise a guest that they have a call..........If flooding has caused the Villa to evacuate, or, just brought the phone system down, you won't be able to speak to a guest unless they have a personal cell phone (and they may have lost cell phone coverage because od flooding issues)........Other than that, you should call Tegucigalpa "information" (need someone who speaks Spanish on the line with you) to see if they have the Villa listed and confirm that you have been dialing the right number...........

Thanks. we tried all that, even tried to contact La Luna Rosa, and the Red Cross there, but no luck, but their infrastructure is already poor there & so you are right, could just be some random thing.. thanks we will keep trying.THANK YOU!!
Quoting CapeObserver:
Good Afternoon all! I see that persistence in the Caribbean continues
to clobber Belize and Honduras. Any precip forecasts for this system
once it heads into the GOM?

Looks like STORMW will get a couple of inches.
Quoting MissNadia:

Looks like STORMW will get a couple of inches.


He's north of me. Hopefully this will become a fast mover. Certainly isn't moving now. Wouldn't wish that on anyone.
This large extratropical cyclone expected this weekend for the Northeast and Southeast could be a monster wind producer even if this disturbance in the tropics doesn't develop. We will have to monitor the progress of this storm system unfolding in the Central Plains right now.
Quoting CapeObserver:


He's north of me. Hopefully this will become a fast mover. Certainly isn't moving now. Wouldn't wish that on anyone.

That "Sugar Sand"can always use some rain!
You wait until 5:00? Show off. =P
Capeobserver we are you from?
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Capeobserver we are you from?


I live in Cape Coral, SW FL. Just outside of Ft Myers.
Interesting... 12Z ECMWF came out with a bit stronger low pressure system almost in line with 12Z GFS.
Latest TPC Caribbean surface analysis:

NW Caribbean low is Poof!


Photobucket

On this blog it's always 5:00 somewhere. :)
Quoting CapeObserver:
On this blog it's always 5:00 somewhere. :)

That's a big 10-4 good buddy!!!
Thanks for clarifying Cape. The system for this weekend looks very interesting to say the least. The ingestion of this Caribbean disturbance could cause a further west movement of the coastal low. Now lets say a new surface low develops east of the upper level low over the Great Lakes, this disturbance could cause a further west movement of the coastal low, unless the disturbance is the coastal low itself?
Getting ready to load a few supplies. View it now... If not up yet, it will be in just a minute!

Quoting FLdewey:
You wait until 5:00? Show off. =P

No, I don't always wait, but the boss may not appreciate me sloshing around. You have new shutters? We just got the lexan shutters and some Bahamas. Peace of mind, at a price.
91L looks like it could affect the US east and mideast. Just for comparison, it is snowing where I live, about 1 cm has fallen in my location in S. Ontario and I think we will get more. By the way, does anyone know what happens with the windspeed when you get eleven 2-millibar interval isobars crammed parallel into a 500-km wide space?! That's what some models are predicting for us in Southern Ontario come Monday morning, especially UKMET! That's crazy! Although winter may have arrived for Ontario, the tropics are not quiet.
Quoting vortfix:
Latest TPC Caribbean surface analysis:

NW Caribbean low is Poof!


Photobucket



Indeed... NHC took the low out of there earlier today close to 1PM or so.

SFC obs... are pretty much showing a weak circulation on the N coast of Honduras with a pressure of 1013MB... not quite low enough to even be classified as an actual low pressure yet.

Interesting that this is going as the models specially GFS/ECMWF have predicted in which the current low would have dissipated and a new or remnants would redevelop from the current TS cluster ready to move NW to the W of Caymand, Islands.

Current 18Z steering maps now show that the High to the N of this disturb area has weakened and move to the E and have opened the door for a WNW to NW movement of this area. There's still some good low level convergence and upper level divergence and on top of that 500 vorticity values do show a developing mid level circulation W of Cayman, Islands which is pretty much where whe have this TS cluster.

Time will tell if this is the forecasted vorticity that is to take shape as it moves WNW to NW into the GOM.
Back, for a short.
91L is interesting to me.It has sat there for a long time, and is a LARGE system of disturbed weather. Could this do an Omar, and become a wild one ?
What are the conditions north of it, ,in 2,3,4 days time ?
This year has been filled with strange storms......
199. KBH
Quoting pottery:
Back, for a short.
91L is interesting to me.It has sat there for a long time, and is a LARGE system of disturbed weather. Could this do an Omar, and become a wild one ?
What are the conditions north of it, ,in 2,3,4 days time ?
This year has been filled with strange storms......

and speaking of strange storms, what is that cloud mass east of the ULL?
Logic, post 197.
Good post. Answered my questions before I asked them..
which ULL, KBH?
At 20n 50w or so ??
202. KBH
DDR, hope things are not too bad, we could not handle anymore rain here. Some large ponds have developed in satuated fields from over two weeks ago
203. KBH
yep, that one. All that UlL has to do is weaken or we get some winds like today and that thing is a full blown system..maybe I am the only one that thinks this way
DDR, just saw your post.
I heard that about Diego.
Looking at the loops this afternoon, I think south got it too. And they are already underwater from Sunday.
I think this system is going to be more like a noreaster for Florida....strong winds and heavy rain...local news here in Orlando said that we could have winds over 35mph
KBH, the upper level winds there look to be sending that stuff (whatever it is!) north and out to sea ?
Or are you thinking differently ?
A bit less rain today but the flooding is worsening in central Belize. The biggest fear now is the numerous villages and communities literally cut off by water. With limited resources in this country people will be in communicado for days. Hope they heed warnings and stock up on supplies. I hope for minimal emergencies - our medical transport system is less than adequate. Keep the prayers coming and thanks again for the good thoughts!
Sending good vibes your way, Belize.
And Honduras too.
Please keep us all informed. Thanks.
Well, after analysing four computer model runs and by using a geostrophic wind calculator, it appears that Southern Ontario will see, from the Northwest, in the predawn hours of Monday, some gusts approaching...AAH! That can't be right, 140 km/h?! (85 mph, 75 kt) Look at the computer model runs youself (CMC, GFS, NGP, UKMET), and use this Calculator...remembeer that's probably for winds, not gusts.
210. KBH
right now I am guessing. Pieces of that system are breaking off and moving south...
KBH, looking at the infrared loops there. Complex winds aloft, but surprisingly, southerly winds south of the area at low levels.
I see what you mean about parts of it breaking off southward though. But the winds should prevent that from becoming an issue.
Great stuff there man....
Evening folks,
Chamber weather today, 70F and 45% humidity.
Fall is definitely our dry season in Charleston.

brb

Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Invest ... 91L
Present Satellite, Area of Interest 91L
Ok, I'm confused.........doesn't take much........

This 'whatever' that is going to be making it's way to FL late week, is this approaching from the west and will be part of the current mess in the Caribbean or is it that little blob currently in the Bahamas. From what I'm hearing it's not going to be an event of any consequence, I'm just wondering from what direction it's going to be coming in from.

TIA
Wow, slow blog tonight.

91L looks pretty good on the sattelite, it might be up to orange alert tonight or tommorow. Once it goes into the gulf, it could become a ts.
Forecast as of 6:28 PM EDT on October 21, 2008
South Santee River South Carolina out to 20 nautical miles... a dry cold front will slide across the area this evening...followed by gusty north winds as high pressure builds south from out of Canada. The high will move off the mid-Atlantic coast Friday as low pressure develops along the Florida Gulf Coast. This low will track NE across the Carolinas Saturday accompanied by wind and rain. High pressure will build in from the west on Sunday.
Forecast as of 6:28 PM EDT on October 21, 2008
Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm-
Tonight
W winds around 10 kt...becoming N 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed
N winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed Night
NE winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu
NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft...building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Thu Night
NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft...building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. A chance of rain.
Fri
NE winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri Night
E winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 ft...building to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. Rain likely.
Sat
Se winds 20 to 25 kt...becoming SW 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 8 ft...subsiding to 7 ft. Rain likely...then a chance of rain.
Sun
whats that blob east of puerto rico ???
Quoting CapeObserver:
Ok, I'm confused.........doesn't take much........

This 'whatever' that is going to be making it's way to FL late week, is this approaching from the west and will be part of the current mess in the Caribbean or is it that little blob currently in the Bahamas. From what I'm hearing it's not going to be an event of any consequence, I'm just wondering from what direction it's going to be coming in from.

TIA


I could be of some consequence here if we get much wide coverage rain. We're just getting rid of the water from Fay. (See historical Crest #3)
WE....all of us....are making this right for these folks RIGHT NOW.....www.portlight.org

Forgotten feeling on Bolivar Peninsula

Friday, October 17, 2008 | 7:01 PM

GALVESTON, TX (KTRK) -- Paradise lost, the devastated Bolivar Peninsula may never be the same after Hurricane Ike. But residents are not giving up and they're telling Eyewitness News they need more help to get back on their feet.

More than a month after Ike literally wiped out parts of the Bolivar Peninsula, residents who've been trying to rebuild tell us they feel forgotten. Supplies, food, and water are getting harder to find with residents having to lean on each other more to get by.
While life for many of us is slowly returning to normal in the month since the storm, the people affected most by the storm say it's getting harder and harder to find the basic necessities.

"We probably have enough left for three or four days and that's It," said business owner Karen Gatlin.
Gatlin is talking about ice and water for residents and the scores of workers involved in the recovery. She owns the Tiki Bar on Crystal Beach and has made it her mission to dole out food and water to anyone who wants it.
Doing so has become increasingly difficult, ever since FEMA packed up its pod and moved out.
"We were told, 'Get all you want because we're leaving and we're not coming back'," said Gatlin.
"Why?" we asked.
"We don't know," she answered.
FEMA hasn't deserted the peninsula. We stopped by its registration center in High Island in search of answers.
Ice in Crystal Beach is still available, but apparently not water. We found Bolivar residents helping themselves at two unmanned trailer.
"One minute, they have water. The next minute, they don't," said Paula Lowry, who we found stocking up on ice. "They keep closing (the trailers) down and opening them up, closing them down and opening them up."
Back at the Tiki Bar, where the supply of ice and water is diminishing, Gatlin is also running out of options.
"We'll be alright," said Gatlin. "We can go get ours. But we can't bring enough back every day for the workers to have ice and water."
Bolivar residents now have more daylight to assess and repair damage to their homes. Galveston County officials changed to curfew. It is now 6pm to 6am instead of 2pm to 6am. Galveston County officials hope to start assessing damaged homes next week.
Quoting wanabwetherman:
whats that blob east of puerto rico ???
It dosent look good, I going to start putting the shutters up!
Press I do NOT understand why our government has abandoned these people. Thank GOD for you all and your continued efforts. Keep up the good, no GREAT work!
Hi Press.

The webcam is sort of neat! You all are doing a great job.
Keep up the incredible work, Presslord.
You and the others directly involved are amazing.
Can you get the media interested in the situation or have they too much political stuff going on? (looks so, from here)
In any case, congratulations to you , Pat, StormJ, and all.
A fine example of "just do it"
Well done.
KEH....stormjunkie and I just gave rain the nickel tour of downtown.....drove by your place and waved....
pottery and Cape....Thanks for the kind words.....but everybody here shares equal credit for all this......

we've gotten some local media coverage in Charleston, Atlanta and Houston...but the national media is otherwise preoccupied....
OK.Press, You guys stay strong.
This area's interesting. NE of the Antilles.

You ALL are amazing. The level of committment from all areas is incredible. Maybe after the beginning of next month you can garner some much needed and deserved national press.
Good things come from good organization and a commitment to making a difference.
After the seasons over.
The destruction lingers for thousands.

Its been a wonderful thing to make a difference. And we all have...from the donors to drivers to folks helping out in many,many ways.

And this site gave us all the opportunity,.. so many Thanks to the wunderground and especially Dr.Jeff Masters for allowing the Relief Effort to be a success.
ESL Image of the Month..Link

ESL by LSU has a newer look also. Link
hi press. where's my husband? his camera is dark.

I hope ya'll liked the brownies press.
Pat I suspect this will be the first of its kind effort from everyday citizens that stays for the long haul. The people of the TX coast are lucky to have you.
aqua...he and sj are eating.....Kelly was moaning over the brownies just now...they are ssssoooo good....gonna have to hide them from our 17 year old son....
Quoting presslord:
KEH....stormjunkie and I just gave rain the nickel tour of downtown.....drove by your place and waved....


Ohhhh... That was YOU!
Aqua you left Press in charge of your husband???? No wonder the camera is dark, LOL.
it's worse than me....SJ's in charge of him now....
We here have Been down the recovery road 3 years now.
Long term commitment by small groups have impacted our areas in many hundreds of ways. Portlight was here then after the 2005 Event.
And its the common man helping one another thru coordinated relief efforts that can bring about huge changes for individuals, families and whole neighborhoods.
cape I am in jacksonville, hubby (rainman32, awesome blog) is in charleston, then on to atlanta biloxi houston bolivar too...

I made 22 dozen cookies for them and I hope they are safe
RE:237. Patrap
I agree
91L has been deactivated.
Press, I am always interested in what others think of the Holy City. Was Rain properly impressed?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
91L has been deactivated.


Thought that should have happened last night when it was encountering land.
GOM IR Loop Link
KEH...he seemed appropriately charmed...and he is a truly nice guy...I'm proud to have met him....
Quoting presslord:
KEH...he seemed appropriately charmed...and he is a truly nice guy...I'm proud to have met him....

Well that has a world of meaning!
Glad that the chamber rolled out such a nice day for him while in Charleston.
KEH, I thought you were press's wife. So I realize now I am clueless.

Status quo.
Quoting aquak9:
cape I am in jacksonville, hubby (rainman32, awesome blog) is in charleston, then on to atlanta biloxi houston bolivar too...

I made 22 dozen cookies for them and I hope they are safe


Like I said, this effort has taken a village and you, my friend, are part of that village. I am proud to know you all.
KEH is not my current wife....though she might very well be one of my ex'es....
Quoting aquak9:
KEH, I thought you were press's wife. So I realize now I am clueless.

Status quo.

No.. His wife is a saint. :)
Also, if I remember right, It was Press's wife who was with SJ
You know what they say........you can judge a person by how well they get along with their ex. Seems to me like you get along pretty well........
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Well, after analysing four computer model runs and by using a geostrophic wind calculator, it appears that Southern Ontario will see, from the Northwest, in the predawn hours of Monday, some gusts approaching...AAH! That can't be right, 140 km/h?! (85 mph, 75 kt) Look at the computer model runs youself (CMC, GFS, NGP, UKMET), and use this Calculator...remembeer that's probably for winds, not gusts.

Any ideas? Whhops I haven't checked the 18z yet.
For the record *I* get along just fine with my ex...........he just can't seem to get along with me, LOL.
lol Cape....depends on which ex we're talkin' about.....third time was the charm for me....
Looks like things have changed around here. No more StormW? Im having a large ouside festival Sat night. Is 91L or whats left of it gonna screw me up?
Quoting jonelu:
Looks like things have changed around here. No more StormW? Im having a large ouside festival Sat night. Is 91L or whats left of it gonna screw me up?


Current thinking is Thurs & Fri will be worse with clearing by Sat PM. Hard To say for sure yet what we'll get. Best stay tuned.

Here's latest NWS for Jupiter Sat.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 85. Southwest wind between 11 and 13 mph.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. West wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Nah, Jonelu, 91L will not trouble you. Unless, of course, you forget to invite ALL of us too. LOL
253. presslord

...third time was the charm...


Slow learner? LOL

Hey Press! Tell everyone hi for me, will be watching that live feed!
Yer all invited to Moonfest on Clematis Street Downtown West Palm Beach on Sat 25th. looks like we will be lucky and clearing...even a little cool!
We are in the south of Belize, our village has been cut off for just about a week now - the one road in and out is impassable. It is much worse elsewhere. This is a small poor country and people are really going to suffer. About $2 million worth of crops have been wiped out already, that means lots and lots of people will be affected, not just the farmers, but consumers, as food will be scarcer and more expensive.

I feel so sorry for the people in the US trying to pick up their lives seemingly without much help from the authorities. And great job all the people here who have made such a difference to them.

At least here people and government do really try to help with the little that we have. But if you have a $ or two to spare, and see an appeal for Belize, remember us please!



yea Rob...very slow learner...but finally figured it out...will be watchin' with you...the pizza party on the Bolivar Penninsula Saturday will be very cool to see....and hear.....those poor souls deserve something nice to happen...proud to have been a part of it.....
OK...."Moonfest' gives me a very disturbing mental image....Can you elaborate?
Post 258. OH, Great. I'm on my way. Just let me slip into these here paddling arm-band things. Good thing the Gulf Stream goes that way.
SPLOOOSH.....
259. norfolknob

Thanks, to you and others there who are keeping us informed. I feel so bad for what your region is having to endure right now. I am hoping that our country will get some help down that way soon. Our thoughts and prayers are with you!

rob
Press, post 261.
Thats great !
heheheheh
ReliefWEB Link

Central America: Floods (as of 20 Oct 2008) - Situation Map
Map of Central America Floods as of Oct 20

Situation Map Link

* Date: 21 Oct 2008
* Type: Natural Disaster
* Keyword(s): Affected Population; Floods; Natural Disaster; Storm
* Format(s):



Quoting norfolknob:
We are in the south of Belize, our village has been cut off for just about a week now - the one road in and out is impassable. It is much worse elsewhere. This is a small poor country and people are really going to suffer. About $2 million worth of crops have been wiped out already, that means lots and lots of people will be affected, not just the farmers, but consumers, as food will be scarcer and more expensive.

I feel so sorry for the people in the US trying to pick up their lives seemingly without much help from the authorities. And great job all the people here who have made such a difference to them.

At least here people and government do really try to help with the little that we have. But if you have a $ or two to spare, and see an appeal for Belize, remember us please!



Norfolknob.
Sorry to hear that. I will see if there is any relief organisation here (Trinidad) that is helping. If not, I will check the RedCross.
Belize
Updates specific to Belize Link
Latest Updates
Save to My ReliefWeb

21 Oct 2008

Govt. Belize

Initial damage assessment report - Tropical Depression No.16 Flooding events
Save to My ReliefWeb

21 Oct 2008

UNICEF

UNICEF Situation Report No. 1
Save to My ReliefWeb

21 Oct 2008

OCHA

Weekly Note on Emergencies: Latin America & The Caribbean - Year 2, Issue 79
Save to My ReliefWeb

20 Oct 2008

Govt. Belize

Update on the flooding situ Link
ReliefWeb does not mention Belize ??
BELIEZE

Source: United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF)

Date: 20 Oct 2008
Print Print Email E-mail Save to My ReliefWeb Save
UNICEF Situation Report No. 1


- Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression 16 began affecting the southern areas of Belize from the evening of Wednesday October 15. The system produced a lot of rainfall and this resulted in flooding in a number of the flood prone areas of the country. Initial impact to the country was to the southern most districts resulting in the major temporary bridge linking the south to the rest of the country once again being washed away but has been restored since. Heavy rains continued throughout the week and unto the weekend.

- Most affected at this time is the Cayo district where the communities of Benque Viejo, San Jose Succotz, Bullet Tree Falls and Calla Creek have been cut off from the rest of the district and as a result from the entire country. The only bridge linking the western part of the Cayo district to the remainder of the country is also inundated and only passable with very high vehicles. The Western border is also closed only allowing Belizeans returning home or Guatemalans going home due to the flooded Macal River compromising the integrity of the bridge on the Guatemalan side.

- An estimated 73,000 persons live in the western part of the country of which approximately half live in the areas that are directly affected, inclusive of 11,000 children and 16,000 women.

- All classes for the southern, western and parts of the Belize districts were suspended since Thursday and continue to be suspended for the Cayo District only at this time resulting in disruption of classes for some 23, 000 primary and secondary school children.

- Eighty –five persons in the affected areas have been moved to shelters while others have sought shelter with family members in the areas not directly affected.

- It anticipated that losses to the agriculture sector, especially to corn and vegetables will only serve to exacerbate the impact of already high food prices.

- The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) has been activated since Thursday last week and continues to respond at the local level and is presently monitoring the Belize River levels as all the flooding from the Macal and Mopan rivers will flow into the Belize River thereby posing a threat to communities in the Belize River Valley.

- The rivers in the northern district of Orange Walk are also being monitored.

- UNICEF has been in contact with all UN agencies in Belize and all staff are accounted for. Three UNICEF staff members have been unable to report to work due to the flooding in their areas and the fact that the bridge is closed.

- UNICEF has been in touch with the NEMO, Relief and supplies and Damage assessment committees for updates and we are ready to respond upon their request.

- Any future development will be communicated in a timely manner.

For detailed information please contact:

UNICEF Representative and Designated Official (Belize): Ms. Rana Flowers Cellular: + 501 610 2201 E-mail: rflowers@unicef.org

UNICEF Emergency Focal Point Ms Anita Zetina Cellular: +501-610-5054 E-mail: azetina@unicef.org
Pat, post 267.

Thank you.
MOONFEST is a festival of music, beer, food and Halloween.
ReliefWEB Link is THE authority for Info on Global Disasters ..hands down.

They have the most current info and great maps and reports as well..even During Nargis in Myanmar.

We should have a permanent link to that site here. I'll make a formal request, if we can do that.

Ah...pretty much just what I imagined then.....
OK...our boys are now well fed....and heading for slumber...they plan an early departure tomorrow....
Quoting presslord:
Ah...pretty much just what I imagined then.....


um, yeah, (LOL), you're bad, but then who am I to talk...

271. jonelu

My best friend from high school lives in PSL.
music, beer, food sounds like his kind of thing. I'll give him a call & if the weather is good, maybe we'll check it out.

my kids are complaining that they are cold here - we have refused to turn on the heat (with no relief from a/c - went from one to the other). 68 degrees in the house - bought them socks, pjs, blankets...put LOCK BOXES on the thermostats...

I would love for my kids to be a part of rescue org so they can understand what it's like to go outside of themselves...
Good evening...

Just wanted to let you know that the UTC Clock I developed can now be downloaded from the following site.

I can be also accessed through my blog.

Is a small program... and like I mentioned before I'm working on Version 2.0 which will have quite a bit of Meteorological options.

Enjoy as it is Free!!! No viruses... since I'm not evil :), but feel free to scan it.

You can leave your comments, suggestions and such on my blog or email.
Quoting WxLogic:
Good evening...

Just wanted to let you know that the UTC Clock I developed can now be downloaded from the following site.

I can be also accessed through my blog.

Is a small program... and like I mentioned before I'm working on Version 2.0 which will have quite a bit of Meteorological options.

Enjoy as it is Free!!! No viruses... since I'm not evil :), but feel free to scan it.

You can leave your comments, suggestions and such on my blog or email.


Thanks for sharing WX. Will definitely check it out.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Thought that should have happened last night when it was encountering land.


Even though it's deactivated the models forecasted this to happen. They show it redeveloping off the north coast of the yucatan right now the center is just onshore of Belize drifting nw so all in all it's going as expected. I see it becoming a subtropical storm/ nor easter in the gulf.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Invest ... 91L
Present Satellite, Area of Interest 91L

Present Satellite, Area of Interest BOC/Western Caribbean
Present Satellite, Area of Interest Southern Florida
Present Satellite, Area of Interest Trinidad & Tobago
281. 7544
Quoting pottery:
which ULL, KBH?
At 20n 50w or so ??


hmm thats ull looks like it could be tropical at anytime now can it ?it is a big one
282. JRRP
.
91L, or the convection at least, seems to be moving slowly northwest, despite a breakoff low that moved SW, the system remains poised to make a progression into the GOM over warm waters. Combine that with an approaching front and we will have a vigorous subtropical system moving over central and north florida Friday and Saturday and likely turn into a nasty NEster for the east coast. Have they ever retired an invest?
good evening everyone.
Wow, how wonderful, Press, Pat and some of the 'old timers' are back. Happy to see ya'll.
YEAH 91 is gone!
hi tampa! you must be so thrilled and excited! good luck!
Quoting conchygirl:
Wow, how wonderful, Press, Pat and some of the 'old timers' are back. Happy to see ya'll.
YEAH 91 is gone!
TampaSpin too.....many were asking today about you!
GASP!!!!!
Tim???
Quoting TampaSpin:
good evening everyone.


Good evening TS, what do you think about our little Noreaster setting up?
287. conchygirl 10:32 PM EDT on October 21, 2008
Quoting conchygirl:
Wow, how wonderful, Press, Pat and some of the 'old timers' are back. Happy to see ya'll.
YEAH 91 is gone!
TampaSpin too.....many were asking today about you!



Been out of town on vacation/nephew's wedding.......since last Wednesday...He had a beach wedding on Ponte Verede Beach south of Jacksonville......wow was it nice.
Quoting TampaSpin:
good evening everyone.


A couple days ago.. I was sure we would have to go and send someone down to talk you off a bridge
Let me take a look at everything as i just logged on...
Quoting TampaSpin:
287. conchygirl 10:32 PM EDT on October 21, 2008
Quoting conchygirl:
Wow, how wonderful, Press, Pat and some of the 'old timers' are back. Happy to see ya'll.
YEAH 91 is gone!
TampaSpin too.....many were asking today about you!



Been out of town on vacation/nephew's wedding.......since last Wednesday...He had a beach wedding on Ponte Verede Beach south of Jacksonville......wow was it nice.
Nice to have you back and you were missed. As is evident, we are going into winter mode on the blog which is good and bad (more good)....yeah RAYS.
Quoting Orcasystems:


A couple days ago.. I was sure we would have to go and send someone down to talk you off a bridge


LOL not that bad....but, it sure was hell......lol
Quoting TampaSpin:


LOL not that bad....but, it sure was hell......lol


I was pretty sure I heard you scream from here in the 7th inning of the 7-0 lead
This town is going crazy with the RAYS..actually talked to some of the players this evening.....and wow are excited.
That last Rays game was a nailbiter, great team and what a win!
Quoting Orcasystems:


I was pretty sure I heard you scream from here in the 7th inning of the 7-0 lead


Playing the game myself i knew the pain the players had after that loss...they did exactly as i told my son they should do and thats not to watch TV or read anything for the next days and that was exactly what they did.
Quoting DoubleAction:


Good evening TS, what do you think about our little Noreaster setting up?


Just looked at the GFS long range model and it sure appears a Sub-tropical storm or a low pressure area will develop and move into West Florida about Friday....i was at Clearwater beach yesterday with some family and the waters are still very warm.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Playing the game myself i knew the pain the players had after that loss...they did exactly as i told my son they should do and thats not to watch TV or read anything for the next days and that was exactly what they did.


new rumor.. Tampa Bay Lightening.. may become.. Toronto's second team?
Quoting Orcasystems:


new rumor.. Tampa Bay Lightening.. may become.. Toronto's second team?


Nope thats not happening.....that would just be rumor......heck they have the largest stadium in Hockey and sell out nearly every game......they have no reason to leave.
Thoughts to all in Belize.
Quoting DoubleAction:
That last Rays game was a nailbiter, great team and what a win!

Sunshine State going for their 3rd world series in 11 years!
so we have a subtropical storm, a noreaster, and a tropical storm forming this week?
Quoting pcbdragon:
so we have a subtropical storm, a noreaster, and a tropical storm forming this week?


good posibility or a very strong Noreaster up the EAST Coast of the ConUS
thanks Tampa. Go Rays!
looked at the model and it looks like something is going to hit just east of me on friday.
305 - TampaSpin

I liked the way you spelled - ConUS, that actually looks like Continental United States, every time I see the word CONUS it reminds me of a tacky body part!! Yeah, have to go to the hospital and have my yearly conusoscopy on Wed.
Sorry everyone.......i very tired....way to much partying since friday.....lol......im out for the nite.....and back tomorrow....big game tomorrow nite......GO RAYS!
Wow, killed the whole blog with a joke, better shut my computer down now!!!
311. JRRP
???
312. KBH
itcz activity acting up again, fresh rains in store for the SE carib. anyone got word on that blob to the northeast?
313. 7544
looks like 91l says no im not dead yet they put the l symbol baack on the sat at 2 am just off land and also the blob now going north over cuba is gaining more convection . this will be heading north over south fl;a the local mets say it will be a soker stay tuned .

Link
314. 7544
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
BOTH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND A BROAD INVERTED-V PATTERN IN CLOUD
COVERAGE BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE BEING STRETCHED
NORTHWARD NEAR THE WAVE. THIS IS THE RESULT OF THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE WAVE AND A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 28N50W TO 16N49W. DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE N
PORTIONS OF THE WAVE AXIS IS BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL WIND SPEED MAXIMUM
E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-26N BETWEEN 46W-51W. ADDITIONALLY...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF
WAVE AXIS S OF 13N...LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ITCZ.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TWENTY-FOUR
FINAL ADVISORY
06:00 AM UTC October 22 2008
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance, Former Asma (1004 hPa) located at 11.1S 54.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. The system is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Near Gale-Force Winds (30kts)
================
The southern sector between 100 NM and 300 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0/1.5

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 10.7S 50.3E - (Se Dissipant)

Additional Information
========================
The system is quickly weakening within an unfavorable environment: moderat northeasterly wind shear, poor ocean heat content, and a weak equatorward low level inflow.

The low level circulation center is fully asymmetric, without any associated deep convection with strong winds only located in the southern semi-circle, far from the center due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures and to the inner motion of the system. Wind extension is estimated with satellite data.

This system is tracking westward on the northern edge of subtropical high pressures. It should fully dissipate within the next 48 hours.

THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
Indian Meteorologial Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning
DEPRESSION ARB02-2008
8:30 AM IST October 22 2008
======================================

At 3:00am UTC, Deep Depression (ARB02-2008) over southwest Arabian Sea moved northwestward and weakened into a Depression. The Depression lays centered over west central Arabian Sea near 13.0N 53.0E or about 300 kms east-southeast of Alula, Somalia.. 450 kms east-southeast of Riyan, Yeman... and 450 kms south southwest of Salalah, Oman.

Satellite imagery indicate weakening in the organization of the convection in association with the system. The intensity of the system is T1.5 with 3 minute sustained winds of 20 knots gusting up to of 25 knots and a central pressure of 1002 hPa.

Associated broken moderate to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 10N to 14N and west of 52.5E, northeast of Somalia and Gulf of Aden. The lowest cloud top temperature due to organization is about -60C. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 15-25 knots. Shear tendency is -5 to -10 knots to the northwest of the system. The system lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge which roughly runs along 18N. The system is interacting with land surface. The sea surface temperatures near the system and over the region to the west of the system is about 27C.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction towards Yeman coast across Gulf of Aden and weaken further. It is likely to dissipate over Gulf of Aden off Yeman coast.
India Meteorological Department

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 22OCT)
========================================

A feeble low pressure area (99A) lies over southeast Arabian sea of Kerala-Karnataka coast. It is likely to become more marked.

Broken to very intense convection is seen over southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep in association with the system.

..wow the Northern Indian Ocean has gotten active.. might get another Arabian Sea cyclone.
Here's what the 00Z UKMET is forecasting:



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 23.5N 91.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 23.10.2008 23.5N 91.0W WEAK

00UTC 24.10.2008 26.5N 89.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 24.10.2008 27.2N 88.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 25.10.2008 28.5N 86.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.10.2008 32.1N 83.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 26.10.2008 36.0N 80.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.10.2008 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

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Has anyone noticed the flare-up near Belize. This is our low moving north or northwest....
The Satellite imagery at the NHC site has not been updated since last night.
Live video from the truck underway and live GPS tracking. Pretty cool...Link
is that another low pressure developing sw carib? did everyone see steve lyons describing the screaming eagle in the gulf last night. someone in the bkground was squeelling.
Quoting leftovers:
is that another low pressure developing sw carib? did everyone see steve lyons describing the screaming eagle in the gulf last night. someone in the bkground was squeelling.


Not sure...the blog is very quiet
G'morning Everyone.

I hope ya'll will take a few minutes this morning and enjoy the ride into Atlanta, GA. It's a clear, crisp autumn day across most of the southeast CONUS, and conditions appear excellent for driving. Our drivers are presently headed west on I-20, to the warehouse of FODAC (Friends of Disabled Adults and Children).

FODAC was our first and best ally- they were the ones who provided us with the first truckload of wheelchairs, walkers, bedside toilets, electric wheelchairs, etc. that were driven to Houston- all free of charge.

Thank you to everyone here who has supported the Portlight effort. Words aren't enough to express the gratitude felt, that we are all part of making a difference.

A very big thank-you to Dr. Masters. Without his support and approval of the efforts, we still would be in the pre-Katrina dark ages, wringing our hands and crying.

This time, WE make a difference. ALL of us. The power to help.

Feels pretty good, doesn't it? ♥

Yes, another surface low has been analyzed:

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Quoting vortfix:
Yes, another surface low has been analyzed:

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I watched that one form yesterday. It's finally moving nnwish. I still say subtropical as it pulls the convection out the caribbean but also gets energy from the cold front while in the gulf.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2008

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
22N87W TO A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR
18N88W TO 16N88W. OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...BROAD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AROUND THESE FEATURES...COMBINED WITH AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER
HIGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N76W...IS RESULTING IN
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 84W-89W. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
AND NEARBY INLAND AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO
ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.
Quoting vortfix:
Yes, another surface low has been analyzed:

Photobucket


thanks, that flare-up on the Yucatan is the low obviously getting more active...
Quoting vortfix:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2008

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
22N87W TO A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR
18N88W TO 16N88W. OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...BROAD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AROUND THESE FEATURES...COMBINED WITH AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER
HIGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N76W...IS RESULTING IN
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 84W-89W. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
AND NEARBY INLAND AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO
ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.


It is not drifting west more like northerly
Once this tropical moisture gets drawn North ahead of the front....that's when we'll see cyclogenesis....in the GOM. Whether it has anything to do with this current surface low near Belize is really not important.

Most likely whatever evolves in the South/Central GOM will be baroclinic in nature.

Good morning...
I think the UKMET has a good handle on this:


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Ohh... some requested for an UTC Clock that I developed for Windows to be ported into a language that can be used on OS other than Windows so I've finished a Java version of it.

Check out my blog for the link to download.

I'll be back in a bit... time to work from the Office today and not from home... /sigh
Quoting vortfix:
I think the UKMET has a good handle on this:


Photobucket



I think it's to close to the mountains. Local NWS (Raleigh NC) are going with the ECMWF because it's along the coast. They say the hybrid wedge building in would normally keep the low along the coast or just offshore.
Good morning from Macon Georgia, 48 F, clear skies, 94 % humidity, like walking thru fog!!
Quoting vortfix:
I think the UKMET has a good handle on this:


Photobucket



Indeed... I believe GFS/ECMWF have a good handle on it too. It will seem that once the low organizes/strengthens that we'll be seeing it on a point between N TBW and S TLH.

Also the current disturb area should be destabilizing the ATMOS around FL and making it easier for whatever develops down the road to be able to dump quite a bit of rain without waiting to penetrate the dry air.
338. IKE
From the Tallahassee,FL. morning discussion....

"Thursday through Friday...the large upper low over the plains will
begin to shift east-northeast toward the Great Lakes region dragging a cold
front across the southeast from west to east. Through this
time...the models have come into much better agreement with the
surface trough that is currently well south of the local area near
the Yucatan Peninsula. They generally show this feature turning
north and emerging into the south-central gom Thursday morning as
a weak low/trough...then tracking north-northeast toward the northeast gom
through the end of the period. Although this feature will be
primarily thermally asymmetric and frontal in nature...the
development of a shallow warm core can't be completely ruled out
at this point."
Good Morning all.
Bright morning here at 11n 61w.
The blob in the Atl, near 20N 50W has moved south a good way overnight. KBH was saying he thought it would do so. I dissagreed. Looks like he saw the signs, and read them better, too!
Interestingly, it has not moved west at all, and is being pushed back east, by about 5 deg. since midnight.
20n 50w might develop. look like a anti cyclone setting up over it
Some heavy rain flaring up between Barbados, Grenada, Tobago, now. Those Islands are already very wet, and dont need more rain right now.
I, on the other hand, would love some in central Trinidad. All the rainfall has been missing me .......
Precip forecast....Valid now thru 8am Saturday:


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G'morning all.

Chat feature has been enabled on the travelcam. Please feel free to drop in and send your words of support. This is a public venue- thanks everyone! ♥
As far as the UKMET...I was concentrating on point of origin on that chart....the rest of that track I agree is too far west.

Depends on the timing of the front.
i hate to post alot because i dont really know what im writing about. where is everyone? probally blogging stock mkt. that stuff is really depressing. what about farmers almanac calling for a rough winter for the ne. the snook fishing here in e cent fl has been outstanding and to us that is a sign of a cold winter coming.
good morning everyone, dreay morning here, 77 with e wind at 13, going to be a wet one for us, whats up with the blob on the 15, 80, is that something else to watch,
Quoting vortfix:
As far as the UKMET...I was concentrating on point of origin on that chart....the rest of that track I agree is too far west.

Depends on the timing of the front.


I hear you...
348. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
i hate to post alot because i dont really know what im writing about. where is everyone? probally blogging stock mkt. that stuff is really depressing. what about farmers almanac calling for a rough winter for the ne. the snook fishing here in e cent fl has been outstanding and to us that is a sign of a cold winter coming.


This blog always dies in the winter. It died this year after IKE...most got burned out on the tropics for whatever reason.

Good thing...it's easier to post this time of year...no trolls...no one telling you not to quote someone else that is on their ignore list...etc.....

Weather never dies to me...it's almost always interesting....

:) ... heading out. TTL
Lefty, a cold winter for you will be good for the oil-sellers. Look on the bright side LOL
But the signs here also point to a dry dry-season (dec-june) which is bad. I dont feel to deal with bush-fires for 3 months for one thing.
A cold Florida winter often means a dry dry season here.
G'morning fellow wundergounders..


Looks like the action has relocated to the sw Carrib this morning. So far tho doesn't appear that it is getting any respect from the powers that be.. Looks good on IR tho. Persistance is the key as always. Beautiful morn in P'cola. Clear and 60 degrees as of right now down on the Bayou Grande.
352. IKE
My forecast, inland Florida panhandle, for Monday night....

Monday Night
Colder. Mostly clear. Lows 37 to 41 inland...41 to 46 near the coast.
I am out . Somebody has to work around here.....
G'day Pottery,
off topic, but india reckons they are going to finally kick our butts in cricket, not going to happen, it's not over until Bubbles Devere sings LOL (fat lady on little britian)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'morning fellow wundergounders..


Looks like the action has relocated to the sw Carrib this morning. So far tho doesn't appear that it is getting any respect from the powers that be.. Looks good on IR tho. Persistance is the key as always. Beautiful morn in P'cola. Clear and 60 degrees as of right now down on the Bayou Grande.


I noticed that flair up, too. I guess they'll wait to see if it lasts. Funny, it doesn't seem like the models saw this coming either.

BTW...my son & his wife just moved to the panhandle from Tampa. They're really enjoying the cooler weather.
Morning guys, what new i am looking at that flare up in the SW caribbean there is a anti cylone a loft could be developing, any thoughts?
357. IKE
CATL system...


i am not lefty pottery that character use to blog quite a bit it knew its stuff too. bloggers are like baseball players they dont die they just fade away. everyone have a good day
Quoting keywestbrat:
G'day Pottery,
off topic, but india reckons they are going to finally kick our butts in cricket, not going to happen, it's not over until Bubbles Devere sings LOL (fat lady on little britian)


Well they sure as h*** kicked your butts in the first test!
Quoting IKE:
My forecast, inland Florida panhandle, for Monday night....

Monday Night
Colder. Mostly clear. Lows 37 to 41 inland...41 to 46 near the coast.


Gonna freeze up & turn muddy...

QPF
yeah saw that been monitoring, was a ull but now taking on a tropical system characteristics, too much sheer plus very good chance it wiil be pulled to the NE
Quoting chrisrw:


Well they sure as h*** kicked your butts in the first test!
bugger missed that, read the aussie paper every morning, like i said no coverage here in the good ol usa
363. IKE
Quoting HIEXPRESS:


Gonna freeze up & turn muddy...

QPF


Looks like they forecast about an inch of rain here...higher amounts near the Pensacola area...over to the worlds most beautiful beaches in Panama City,FL~~~~~~~~
OUCH!!
well here comes the rain, it is drifting up from the south but the wind has shifted to the NE
366. IKE
Looks like a washout day for Key West,FL....

we got our share the last two days, ground all sogy water setlling every where ugh! but prefer that than the H word.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
we got our share the last two days, ground all sogy water setlling every where ugh! but prefer that than the H word.
yea we have your blob now, checked out the royal palms web cam yesterday, gloomy and deserted
seem to have misplaced my quikscat link any one has that link, thanks
Good morning all :)

Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Present Satellite, Area of Interest BOC/Western Caribbean
Present Satellite, Area of Interest Southern Caribbean
Present Satellite, Area of Interest Southern Florida
Present Satellite, Area of Interest Trinidad & Tobago

morning Orcasystems!
looks like Paloma in the making, SW caribbean
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
morning Orcasystems!


Good morning :)
Almost all of the models have something coming out of the Caribbean, either the old 91L or the new one in the Southern section. I would rather the season just ended :)
GM,all,hope everyone's weather is better than mine here in Mass.,42 deg. North wind at 10-20
light rain,where did fall go.
whoaa just droped 4 degrees honking out of ssw now
GM everyone, looks like that flair up in the SW carrib is getting interesting if it stays together....yep Ike, they are forcasting some hevy rains come thur...but offshore winds come friday afternoon for you local panhandle surfers!!! expecting 11' seas....love this time of the year when the fronts have some umph to them...
well of to work be back later
Quoting vortfix:
As far as the UKMET...I was concentrating on point of origin on that chart....the rest of that track I agree is too far west.

Depends on the timing of the front.


Oh ok. I believe the origin is close maybe needs to be shifted a tad east.
Morning folks. Hey Ike, I'm thrilled about the rain headed our way but I can do without those temps you cited.. BRRRRR!
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Oh ok. I believe the origin is close maybe needs to be shifted a tad east.



..yea like 100-200 miles to the east, the current low off the coast should be the one the models have been picking up on as it moves slowly to the North scraping the NE coast of the yucatan,then NE,crossing the FL peninsula between tampa and key west as a strong TS,I give 91L about a 60% chance of this,chances of a weak hurricane IMO about15%...as forcast monday,today 91L should begin to orgainize into a TC,as most atmospheric conditions have become codusive for this!!!!!
Quoting stillwaiting:



..yea like 100-200 miles to the east, the current low off the coast should be the one the models have been picking up on as it moves slowly to the NNW,then North scraping the NE coast of the yucatan,then NE,crossing the FL peninsula between tampa and key west as a strong TS,I give 91L about a 60% chance of this,chances of a weak hurricane IMO about15%...


Are you talking about the 91 or the new one forming in the SW carribean? Where are you seeing the track? I missed this somewhere when I was looking this morning!! ugh! need more coffee :)
382. IKE
I don't see anything tropical yet, in the NW Caribbean or southern GOM. May take until tomorrow for a low to form. 91L went SW and died. This would be 92L if it were to be classified. May just be a non-tropical low, but looks to bring a big slug of moisture north with it. You can see it now heading that way on satellite...Link
interesting analysis at NHC this morning

THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PROVE TO BE ANOTHER SOURCE OF ACTIVE
WEATHER...ULTIMATELY IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST. EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...SOUTHERN FLORIDA WILL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY EVENING/FRIDAY
MORNING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI WILL GET
BETTER ORGANIZED...ENHANCING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION
PROCESSES.
382. IKE

I agree. Nothing imminent. The likely 92L would be the one to watch.
91L should absorb the energy from that "new" area of interest, as it moves quickly to the NW.....91L now trying to wrap newly formed convection around its center which is just offshore...
Quoting IKE:
I don't see anything tropical yet, in the NW Caribbean or southern GOM. May take until tomorrow for a low to form. 91L went SW and died. This would be 92L if it were to be classified. May just be a non-tropical low, but looks to bring a big slug of moisture north with it. You can see it now heading that way on satellite...Link

Possible 92l would be the big thunderstorm cluster. former 91l is the little low/ thunderstorm cluster over belize.
Ike: if your talking about the area off belizes coast,it would not be a new invest as it has been the same area of broad low pressure for the last 120hrs,now the LLC that was there 36hrs ago,is gone,but it is the same low pressure area....if you were talking about the new "blob" to the south,then yes that would be a new invest,I personally think that are w/get absorbed into 91L....all of this is just my opinion though!!!!
388. IKE
GOM visible w/NCEP fronts on has 2 lows now...one SE of Brownsville and the other on/off of the Yucatan coast/Belize area....Link
389. IKE
NEW BLOG!
I can't stay on but i just updated my Blog if anyone would like to review....thanks and GO RAYS!!

TampaSpin's Tropical Update Link