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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Heavy rains drench Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:03 PM GMT on January 25, 2012

Big smiles greeted heavy rains in Texas this morning, where an upper-level low pressure system brought significant soaking rains to eastern portions of the state. The rain was heavy enough to cause minor flooding of some creeks and rivers, and the NWS has posted flash flood watches and warnings for most of Eastern Texas. High water rescues have occurred on the streets of Haltom City, Texas. It's been a while since we've seen our severe weather map light up in green colors for Texas! Austin, Texas received 5.66" of rain this morning, setting a record for the date, and rainfall amounts of 2 - 4 inches have been common across most of East Texas. The storm has triggered severe thunderstorms over Texas yesterday and this morning, and two possible tornadoes were reported in Edwards County near Houston yesterday. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed much of East Texas and Western Louisiana in their "Slight Risk" region for severe weather today, and tornado watches are posted. Some 24-hour rainfall amounts from the storm, for the period ending at 6am CST January 25:

Dallas Love 3.17"
Dallas/Fort Worth Airport 3.08"
San Antonio 3.13"
Waco 2.68"
Victoria 0.96"


FIgure 1. Radar-estimated rainfall for the 24 hours ending at 10:23am CST January 25, 2012.

Above-average rains for Texas this winter
Despite predictions that this winter would be unusually dry in Texas due to the on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific, Texas has seen more rain than average. Today's storm is the second major soaking Eastern Texas has received this month. December also had plentiful rains, with the state recording its 19th wettest December in 117 years of record keeping. However, 2011 was the driest year in Texas history, and many regions still have a long way to go before drought conditions abate. The January 17, 2012 Drought Monitor showed 62% of Texas in two worst categories of drought--extreme to exceptional. That's quite an improvement from the 97% of the state that was in extreme to exceptional drought back on September 27, 2011, though. The latest GFS model forecast shows mostly dry conditions returning to Texas next week, with the possibility of more heavy rain for East Texas on February 3.

Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Funso moves away from Mozambique
The most powerful tropical cyclone of 2012 is Tropical Cyclone Funso, which intensified to a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds early this morning. Funso is located in the Mozambique Channel between Madagascar and Mozambique, and is expected to remain offshore and move slowly southwards. The outer spiral bands of Funso dumped torrential rains on Mozambique early this week, triggering floods that killed at least twelve people. Flooding from Funso was made worse by the saturated soils left by Tropical Depression Dando, whose rains caused flooding that killed ten people in the country last week.


Figure 2. Image of Tropical Cyclone Funso taken by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite on January 25, 2012, at 07:40 UTC. At the time, Funso was a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Largest solar storm since October 2003 hits Earth
On January 23 near 03:39 UTC, big sunspot 1402 erupted, sending a coronal mass ejection (CME) headed towards Earth. The CME arrived at Earth on January 24 near 15 UTC, setting off the biggest solar storm since October 2003. Bright auroras were observed at many northern locations, and a G1-class geomagnetic storm is in progress. For more info, see NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center or spaceweather.com.


Figure 3. Solar flare as observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) at 03:27, 03:42, and 04:12 UTC January 23, 2012. Note the brightening of the solar surface as gas was superheated and magnetically supercharged. By the third (right) image, a stream of solar material is seen flowing off into space above the hot spot, likely solar protons and a coronal mass ejection (CME). Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Jeff Masters
Green and clean.
Green and clean.
Magic Fjord
Magic Fjord
I want to thank all of you for vots and comments.THANK YOU ALL

Drought Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

A drought-denter! Hopefully many more rainy Texas days to come.
life giving water for texas
as for the solar storms things have settled down for now

thanks for update doc
Quite a number of storms in Texas overnight. Some were fairly severe and kept us up. I guess we're not really used to seeing that down here lately :)
Another conference I've been invited to is Culture, Politics and Climate Change in Boulder, CO Sept 13-15. I will not be able to go to that either, still will be in the stan. Wonder if Dr. Rood or Dr. Masters will go.
The other conference I was invited to is Frost, Ice, and Snow - Cold Climate in Russian History. This one is more up my alley.
Those aurora pictures are, as always, awesome. And it goes without saying that despite the flooding, the Texas rains are (mostly) welcome.
Lets try this again lol...

Funso last night 0700Z.


Also...i got 50 CD's i need to destroy that mom dont want. Any suggestions? Remember...it cant be a safe an d recommended way:)
Quoting SPLbeater:
Lets try this again lol...

Funso last night 0700Z.


Also...i got 50 CD's i need to destroy that mom dont want. Any suggestions? Remember...it cant be a safe an d recommended way:)
something wrong with you and its not being a kid grow up already
Quoting SPLbeater:
Lets try this again lol...

Funso last night 0700Z.


Also...i got 50 CD's i need to destroy that mom dont want. Any suggestions? Remember...it cant be a safe an d recommended way:)


Have a baseball bat and some string? Tie the string through the center of the CDs then knot it together. Tie the other end of the string to the end of the bat, making sure to prevent it from coming off when swinging. Viola! You now have your own CD paddleball equipment. To play, throw the CDs into the air, then swing the bat, hitting them repeatedly until the CDs are destroyed. Repeat process until all CDs are nothing but shards of plastic!!
Jeff, just FYI, Edwards county is in Central/West Texas between San Antonio and Del Rio. It is actually more than 250 miles from Houston, TX.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
something wrong with you and its not being a kid grow up already


you know Keeper i thought alot of you when i joined up. dont mess it up now. I am not going to grow up to an adult anytime soon...maybe in the next 6 years or something. I like to have fun and act my age. So hush
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Have a baseball bat and some string? Tie the string through the center of the CDs then knot it together. Tie the other end of the string to the end of the bat, making sure to prevent it from coming off when swinging. Viola! You now have your own CD paddleball equipment. To play, throw the CDs into the air, then swing the bat, hitting them repeatedly until the CDs are destroyed. Repeat process until all CDs are nothing but shards of plastic!!


nice..i will try that! and if i works i upload picture of result so u can see :D
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
3:00 AM WST January 25 2012
================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (988 hPa) located at 15.7S 107.8E or 960 km northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
110 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity:
======================

12 HRS: 16.2S 107.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.1S 108.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 18.6S 109.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 19.7S 110.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

The low level circulation center has moved under the deep convection. A shear pattern analysis gives a DT of 3.0. The system has developed over the last 24 hours giving a MET of 3.0, PAT agrees, resulting in CI of 3.0.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy is likely to move south southeastwards over the next 72 hours and slowly intensify as the subtropical ridge to the south erodes. The vigorous monsoon trough has added some uncertainty to the development and movement of the system.

Relatively shallow sea surface temperatures may limit the intensity of this system, particularly if it becomes slow moving over waters south of 20 south.

Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of a strong monsoonal flow.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin/advisory from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at around 1:30 AM UTC..



YNNAustinYNN Austin





The National Weather Service confirms there was in fact a tornado in Northeast Austin early this morning. More details to come.

This La Nina season has been much wetter here than last La Nina season, I am not seeing much comparison except temps are still above normal every month.
About to get rocked here.

My personal weather station has recorded 1.85 inches of rain here in Humble/Atascocita today. I am loving the rain. We needed it so much here. I'm also pleased that this month has been such a nice rain month. Keep it up, atmosphere!
Pretty good widespread rains spinning around the upper low out in west TX
TORNADO WARNING
TXC241-351-251930-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0007.120125T1859Z-120125T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1259 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...KIRBYVILLE...JASPER...
CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...NEWTON...CALL...BURKEVILLE...BON WEIR...

* UNTIL 130 PM CST

* AT 1254 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM JASPER TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CALL...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

* TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
KIRBYVILLE AND ROGANVILLE BY 105 PM CST...
FARRSVILLE AND TROUT CREEK BY 105 PM CST...
OLD SALEM AND NEWTON BY 110 PM CST...
BURKEVILLE AND BON WEIR BY 115 PM CST...
STRINGTOWN BY 120 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
SMALL ROOM LIKE A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS
AND USE PILLOWS OR BLANKETS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

&&

TORNADO WARNING
LAC085-TXC403-251945-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0003.120125T1917Z-120125T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
117 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL SABINE COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SABINE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 145 PM CST

* AT 114 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANY...OR 18 MILES NORTH OF TOLEDO BEND DAM...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
NEGREET...FLORIEN...FISHER AND MOUNT CARMEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3147 9381 3172 9351 3148 9327 3130 9368
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 240DEG 35KT 3144 9361

$$

03
TORNADO WARNING
LAC069-081-085-252000-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0002.120125T1912Z-120125T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
112 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL NATCHITOCHES PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN RED RIVER PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
NORTH CENTRAL SABINE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 200 PM CST

* AT 109 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 25 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAMPTI...OR 22 MILES WEST OF NATCHITOCHES...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MARTHAVILLE...ROBELINE...AJAX...ALLEN...LAKE END...POWHATAN...GRAND
ECORE AND BLACK LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #28
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FUNSO (08-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 25 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (946 hPa) located at 23.4S 39.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 5 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
150 NM radius from the center, extending up to 200 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 24.1S 39.2E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 24.7S 39.2E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 26.2S 38.2E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 29.0S 41.3E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

A second eyewall replacement cycle is ongoing (cf. 1610 PM UTC SSMIS and 1437 PM UTC TRMM microwave pictures). DT is down from 1430z. Current intensity is maintained at 90 kt in relationship with Dvorak constraints, but ongoing eyewall replacement cycle clearly modifies structure of the system. With two rmw (external rmw at 35 NM). Consequently system should weaken again during the next hours and the actual short range intensity forecast takes it in account.

Within the next 48 hours, system might track globally southward with a quite slow speed under the steering influence of the mid-level ridge existing in its east. Over this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable under the upper level ridge and sustained by a building second outflow channel poleward this Wednesday 25. Sea surface temperature will slightly decrease but remain favorable.

When second eyewall replacement cycle will be complete, Funso should start a new intensifying phase.

On and after 48 hours, Funso is expected to accelerate again south southeastward then southeastward in relationship with a deeper trough transiting in the mid-latitude. At this range, system will undergoing both cooler sea surface temperature and a strengthening westerly vertical wind shear in the same time. Funso should weaken and then begin its extra-tropical transition.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
TORNADO WARNING
LAC011-115-TXC351-252000-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0008.120125T1929Z-120125T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
129 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES...TOLEDO BEND DAM...BURKEVILLE...BON WEIR...
NORTHWESTERN BEAUREGARD PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...MERRYVILLE...DE RIDDER...
WESTERN VERNON PARISH IN WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...SLAGLE...ROSEPINE...LEESVILLE...FORT POLK...
ANACOCO...

* UNTIL 200 PM CST

* AT 126 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM BURR FERRY TO BON WEIR...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
BURR FERRY BY 135 PM CST...
MERRYVILLE AND JUNCTION BY 140 PM CST...
ANACOCO AND HORNBECK BY 145 PM CST...
LEESVILLE BY 150 PM CST...
NEW LLANO BY 155 PM CST...
DE RIDDER...FORT POLK AND ROSEPINE BY 200 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
SMALL ROOM LIKE A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS
AND USE PILLOWS OR BLANKETS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

IN SCHOOLS...HOSPITALS...AND SHOPPING CENTERS...MOVE TO
PRE-DESIGNATED SHELTER AREAS. INTERIOR HALLWAYS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
ARE THE BEST. STAY OUT OF AUDITORIUMS AND GYMNASIUMS...AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS AND GLASS DOORWAYS.
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
===================================

At 3:30 am CST a Tropical Low [996 hPa] was located over land near 14.2S 131.4E approximately 100 km west northwest of Katherine moving east northeast at 4 knots.

The low is expected to move southeast across the northern territory during the next few days.
Collapsed eyewall?



Otherwise, I think it is safe to say that Funso has peaked.
TORNADO WARNING
LAC069-085-252030-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0004.120125T2005Z-120125T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
205 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN NATCHITOCHES PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
EAST CENTRAL SABINE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 230 PM CST

* AT 203 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
KISATCHIE...OR 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF ANACOCO...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BELLWOOD...FLORA...GORUM...MELROSE...CLOUTIERVILLE AND CHOPIN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&
Finally enough rain that we have had some run-off! Previously the ground has been just soaking up the rain and not allowing increases in lake levels. I have not seen full creeks and canals like this for a long time, seems like spring rains.
Quoting Neapolitan:
NASA today released an updates version of its Blue Marble image. It's a full-disc, highly-detailed picture taken on January 4.

Click for larger image (NOTE: very big image (8,000px x 8,000px)

Blue Marble


Very Cool Neo, thanks for posting this.......

Now, it has to be a fake, the earth is flat.........

Supporting evidence of fakery, the same organization that provides this, also claims man released CO2 is causing the thing in the picture to get hot.

Obviously NASA knows nothing, they are all about politics, not science.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
216 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

LAC011-115-252030-
/O.CON.KLCH.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-120125T2030Z/
BEAUREGARD LA-VERNON LA-
216 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CST FOR VERNON
AND BEAUREGARD PARISHES...

AT 213 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS. THESE TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM KURTHWOOD TO ROSEPINE AND
SINGER..MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORMS INCLUDE TULLA...HUTTON...
CRAVENS...SIMPSON...FULLERTON...BUNDICK LAKE...SUGARTOWN AND PITKIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION...STAY INDOORS AND AVOID WINDOWS. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR SMALL ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET.

IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME...WHETHER IT IS TIED DOWN OR NOT...
EVACUATE IT AND FIND A MORE STURDY SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES CAN BE
PICKED UP OR TOSSED BY THE TORNADO.

IN SCHOOLS...HOSPITALS...AND SHOPPING CENTERS...MOVE TO PRE-
DESIGNATED SHELTER AREAS. INTERIOR HALLWAYS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR ARE
THE BEST. STAY OUT OF AUDITORIUMS AND GYMNASIUMS...AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS AND GLASS DOORWAYS.
WHOA! Haven't seen this in a while.


The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
the city of Sour Lake...
Jefferson County in southeast Texas...
this includes the cities of... Nome... Hamshire... Central Gardens...
Beaumont...
western Orange County in southeast Texas...
this includes the cities of... Vidor... Mauriceville...

* until 415 PM CST

* at 214 PM CST... National Weather Service radar depicted a line of
heavy rain producing thunderstorms from the Vidor area to Beaumont
to near Winnie. These thunderstorms have rapidly produced rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches can be expected as these thunderstorms move northeast at 40
mph.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall may cause elevated water levels
on small creeks... streams... and bayous. Additionally... ponding of
water will occur on highways... streets... and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage areas and low lying areas.

Turn around... don't drown... most flood deaths occur in automobiles.
Never drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. Flood waters are usually deeper than they appear. Just one
foot of flowing water is powerful enough to sweep vehicles off the
Road. When encountering flooded roads make the smart choice... turn
around... dont drown.
From Christopher C. Burt:

At 20z (NOON PST -3pm EST) it appears the coldest temperature in the entire lower 48 states is just 24DEG (in a couple of northern Maine locations and one
mountain Wyoming location). That's pretty mild nation-wide for January 25.

Jeff Masters
Quoting RitaEvac:
Pretty good widespread rains spinning around the upper low out in west TX


Noticed that as well. I doubt it will make it to east Texas though.. I guess we will see.
Really wish that line would of looked like it does now when it went thru my area,
Quoting Neapolitan:
NASA today released an updates version of its Blue Marble image. It's a full-disc, highly-detailed picture taken on January 4.

Click for larger image (NOTE: very big image (8,000px x 8,000px)

Blue Marble


Impressive image, Nea. Should you wish to think about how thick/thin our atmosphere really is you only need to look to Mt. Everest. Climbs to the top takes weeks just to become acclimated to the thin atmosphere up there.
Quoting 1911maker:


Very Cool Neo, thanks for posting this.......

Now, it has to be a fake, the earth is flat.........

Supporting evidence of fakery, the same organization that provides this, also claims man released CO2 is causing the thing in the picture to get hot.

Obviously NASA knows nothing, they are all about politics, not science.


Earth must be flat, for it seems I am always hanging right on the edge. ;-)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Earth must be flat, for it seems I am always hanging right on the edge. ;-)


I hear you there, I am always on the edge............

my last post proves it. :)

And to add to Dr M's comment............ today's weather in a normally cold part of the country............. When I joined my wife for lunch today, her comment ; "feels spring like out there" speaks volumes.
Link

[Deleted because it was a repost... see post #26]
After the severe weather a couple of days ago I noticed that the antennas had all been blown off the 100+ foot pole at my kids school.. While I was taking a picture of it my kids came out of class.. they asked why I was taking a picture of the pole and said that it would've been cooler earlier when the crane was there taking down the antennas... :/
Good Afternoon. Kind of surprising to see such a well organized/severe weather potential frontal passage along the Gulf coast this time of the Year. No surprise given the warm flow from the Gulf over the last few weeks; I was wade fishing in the Florida Big Bend region yesterday afternoon (on the Bay near Apalachicola) and catching Trout out feeding on the flats(it is normally much colder this time of the year with the fish in holes or upriver).

Almost a Springtime type of frontal passage, several weeks early, but not as severe as the normal Spring outbreaks.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Earth must be flat, for it seems I am always hanging right on the edge. ;-)
In the eleventh dimension the Earth is flat...:)
Quoting JNCali:
After the severe weather a couple of days ago I noticed that the antennas had all been blown off the 100+ foot pole at my kids school.. While I was taking a picture of it my kids came out of class.. they asked why I was taking a picture of the pole and said that it would've been cooler earlier when the crane was there taking down the antennas... :/


assumptions..............

they bite, just about always. :)
Looks like a disturbance coming outta Old Mexico south of the main upper air low over W TX. Radar picking up activity down there in Mexico for a while now and curious if this will hang on and move eastbound later tonight
Quoting hydrus:
In the eleventh dimension the Earth is flat...:)


I remember, "The Fifth Dimension". ;-)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looks like a disturbance coming outta Old Mexico south of the main upper air low over W TX. Radar picking up activity down there in Mexico for a while now and curious if this will hang on and move eastbound later tonight


It is a "huge" ULL with the center stradling the MX/TX border right now.

Link
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I remember, "The Fifth Dimension". ;-)
.. my gramma had diminsian
It is worthy to note that almost all of the coldest record temperatures ever set in the conterminous states were set years ago and not recently. To my surprise, most in February.....Rogers Pass, Montana -70 -56.7 Jan 20, 1954
Peter's Sink, Utah -69 -56.1 Feb 1, 1985
Riverside Ranger Station, Yellowstone, Wyoming -66 -54.4 Feb 9, 1933
West Yellowstone, Montana -66 -54.4 Feb 9, 1933
Moran, Wyoming -63 -52.8 Feb 9, 1933
Darwin Ranch, Wyoming -62 -52.2 Feb 10, 1981
Maybell, Colorado -61 -51.7 Feb1, 1985
Border, Wyoming -60 -51.1 Feb8, 1929
Hebgen Dam, Montana -60 -51.1 Feb 12, 1905
Island Park, Idaho -60 -51.1 Jan 18, 1943
Maybell, Colorado -60 -51.1 Jan 1, 1979
Parshall, North Dakota -60 -51.1 Feb 15, 1936
Taylor Park, Colorado -60 -51.1 Feb 1, 1951
Tower, Minnesota -60 -51.1 Feb 2, 1996
West Yellowstone, Montana -60 -51.1 Jan 12, 1963
Quoting HurrikanEB:
[Deleted because it was a repost... see post #26]


Could you post it again? I did not see #26.
Heavy rains over W TX near Upper air low
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I remember, "The Fifth Dimension". ;-)
Lol..So do I..It is no longer "The Age of Aquarius" tho..:)
Quoting hydrus:
Lol..So do I..It is no longer "The Age of Aquarius" tho..:)


You got that right. ;-)
000
FXUS64 KHGX 252155
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

DISCUSSION...
TODAY`S ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EAST
OF OUR CWA AND COASTAL WATERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THESE STORMS...MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW SLOWLY EDGES OFF TO THE EAST. COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE FILTERED
INTO THE AREA BEHIND OUR STORM TODAY...AND THESE LOWER AND MORE NEAR
NORMAL READINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND ON INTO
THE WEEKEND. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN...A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

AS FOR TODAY`S STORMS...A SURVEY IS BEING CONDUCTED IN BRENHAM THIS
AFTERNOON AND ONE WILL BE CONDUCTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
IN PEARLAND. TOMORROW...PLANS ARE TO SURVEY DAMAGE AREAS IN BURLESON...
MADISON...GRIMES AND WALKER COUNTIES. A PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
FOR TODAY`S EVENTS HAS BEEN ISSUED (LSRHGX)...AND THIS PRODUCT ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS (PNSHGX) WILL BE ISSUED
WHEN MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

FINALLY...SOME NEW RAINFALL RECORDS WERE ESTABLISHED TODAY. AS OF
324 PM...IAH`S RAINFALL TOTAL OF 2.80 INCHES BREAKS THE OLD RECORD
OF 1.40 INCHES SET IN 1907. HOU`S RAINFALL TOTAL OF 0.93 INCHES
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.87 INCHES SET IN 1973. 42
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looks like a disturbance coming outta Old Mexico south of the main upper air low over W TX. Radar picking up activity down there in Mexico for a while now and curious if this will hang on and move eastbound later tonight


It appears to be keeping together pretty strong but some of that dry air may affect it. Hope it does hold together and spread East. The lakes could use all the water they can get
On the temperature front:-
Its a balmy +9/c, with a slight breeze, outside at 10pm on the edge of the mountains near Manchester UK, tonight. We are about 54 degrees north and I think there have been less than 10 cold days around freezing this winter at the most. Cotillion will know for sure.
Northern Europe seems to be having very little cold this year.
So that's November, December and now most of January gone, this is probably going to be one of the warmest winters on record for the UK I am sure now.
So glad to hear that most of Texas got rain, hope you get more.
"At the time, Funso was a Category 4 storm with 115 mph winds"
Wait, isn't that cat 3 wind speeds?
Ok where'd everyone go off to?
Noting:-49. hydrus.
I find it almost unbelievable that there hasn't been a record coldest temperature set in the lower US states since:-Tower, Minnesota -60 -51.1 Feb 2, 1996.
Given the state of the art equipment that must be in place to record temperature's in all sorts of remote places.
I hate It when people start picking on bloggers just for their age.Thats stupid and makes you look even more childish than they are.Just because the blogger doesn't act like the next MH09 or TWX13 doesn't mean they can't be a good addition to this blog.Sorry I'm done now.......
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

TORNADO WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 411 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

TORNADO WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 355 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

Miami NWS Discussion

FRONT MOVES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN STALLS RIGHT
OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA ALL DAY SATURDAY AS PER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS WILL REQUIRE AN INCREASE IN POPS SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A NAPLES TO WEST PALM BEACH LINE NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE. THE GFS MODEL IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE LEVELS, SHOWING PWAT VALUES WELL
OVER 1.5 INCHES OVER DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA. OTHER MODELS AREN'T AS
COPIOUS WITH MOISTURE, BUT LATEST ECMWF MODEL HINTS AT SIMILAR
SOLUTION AS GFS AND FUTURE SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP POPS EVEN
MORE ON SATURDAY. FRONT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF AREA EARLY SUNDAY
BUT POPS MAY BE NEEDED INTO EARLY SUNDAY IF CURRENT TRENDS
PERSIST. SLIGHT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND BUT MOST
NOTICEABLE AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NOT FELT OVER SE FLORIDA
UNTIL PERHAPS LATER ON SUNDAY.
Quoting Patrap:
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

TORNADO WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 411 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

TORNADO WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 355 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012


It's comin' your way pat, be prepared.
Quoting PlazaRed:
Noting:-49. hydrus.
I find it almost unbelievable that there hasn't been a record coldest temperature set in the lower US states since:-Tower, Minnesota -60 -51.1 Feb 2, 1996.
Given the state of the art equipment that must be in place to record temperature's in all sorts of remote places.
It is rather odd. That is why I posted those numbers..bbl
Quoting Articuno:

It's comin' your way pat, be prepared.



Watching it closely here..Thanx.

2 Midland WR-100,with battery Back up.

Always a great gift idea for a friend or neighbor.

Quoting Articuno:
"At the time, Funso was a Category 4 storm with 115 mph winds"
Wait, isn't that cat 3 wind speeds?

Yes it is...hmmm. Strange.
Must be a typo.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Yes it is...hmmm. Strange.
Must be a typo.
Maybe cat 6 do exist.
Quoting Articuno:
"At the time, Funso was a Category 4 storm with 115 mph winds"
Wait, isn't that cat 3 wind speeds?


1. It could be a category 4 in some other classification system
2. Some1 made the mistake of saying 'mph' instead of 'kt' lol

In the Australian Scale, 86-107knots is category 4. 115mph=100 knots. SO, they could be right if they truly do think that Funso has weakened that much :D
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hate It when people start picking on bloggers just for their age.Thats stupid and makes you look even more childish than they are.Just because the blogger doesn't act like the next MH09 or TWX13 doesn't mean they can't be a good addition to this blog.Sorry I'm done now.......


:D :D :D :D
Well, that was different! And a long time coming. :D
Just about through here. Hope the severe is over with. A couple local storm reports.

01/25/2012 0300 PM

Vidor, Orange County.

Flash flood, reported by broadcast media.


Kfdm reports flooding along most side streets in Vidor
making roads impassable. Local school in Vidor reports
2.6 inches of rainfall in the last hour and 3.6 so far
today.


01/25/2012 0320 PM

Beaumont, Jefferson County.

Flash flood, reported by broadcast media.


Beaumont Enterprise reports water accumulation on eastex
freeway at E. Lucas making the Road impassable.
Underpasses are also becoming impassable along Park
Street at Virginia as well as mlk Pkwy at Virginia,
Lavaca and College.
TCEQ eases water restrictions

Posted: Jan 25, 2012 3:21 PM CST Updated: Jan 25, 2012 3:35 PM CST
By Bert Charan - bio | email


The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) has eased water restrictions thanks to recent rains.

The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality notified more than 160 Neches River Basin junior water holders that the right to divert water is no longer suspended.

Water restrictions were placed on junior water holders back on November 2011 due to the drought. Restrictions for other water holders however, remain under restrictions.

Land owners with property next to water courses in the Neches River Basin may continue to divert water for domestic and livestock use.

Priority doctrine law dictate water use and restrictions. Senior water holders have priority rights commensurate with livestock water use and length of property ownership. Junior holders were suspended in ability to divert water resources due to the recent and on going drought.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Could you post it again? I did not see #26.




'Blue Marble 2012': NASA's 'Most Amazing' High Def Image Of Earth So Far
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hate It when people start picking on bloggers just for their age.Thats stupid and makes you look even more childish than they are.Just because the blogger doesn't act like the next MH09 or TWX13 doesn't mean they can't be a good addition to this blog.Sorry I'm done now.......

Who is picking on who for their age?
Only got 0.67" at my place...........you can see along Brazoria & Galveston county we really got nothing compared to everywhere else. I got 6 inches last time, natures way of balancing everything out.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hate It when people start picking on bloggers just for their age.Thats stupid and makes you look even more childish than they are.Just because the blogger doesn't act like the next MH09 or TWX13 doesn't mean they can't be a good addition to this blog.Sorry I'm done now.......
People are still bickering about peoples ages? I cant even count how many times I'v seen this conversation.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who is picking on who for their age?

see 9
Hope we don't get repeat of Friday, 32 and wet roads only, so far. Moisture coming from SW though. Hope it brings slightly higher temps or we could have a mess. Advisories out for most of C IL. Glad to see TX got some needed rain, hope that continues for y'all.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Heavy rains over W TX near Upper air low
This system is forecast to fall apart as it moves eastward into very stable air according to weatherman?
Hopefully,the drought conditions subside in Texas,but they dont need extreme rain events to cause flooding. This occured in Fort Worth.

Quoting JeffMasters:
From Christopher C. Burt:

At 20z (NOON PST -3pm EST) it appears the coldest temperature in the entire lower 48 states is just 24DEG (in a couple of northern Maine locations and one
mountain Wyoming location). That's pretty mild nation-wide for January 25.

Jeff Masters


That warm in northern Maine? That's practically sun bathing weather up there.
Quoting PlazaRed:
Noting:-49. hydrus.
I find it almost unbelievable that there hasn't been a record coldest temperature set in the lower US states since:-Tower, Minnesota -60 -51.1 Feb 2, 1996.
Given the state of the art equipment that must be in place to record temperature's in all sorts of remote places.

Well, don't forget that Oklahoma saw its coldest temperature ever last February 11 when the station at Nowata reached -31. (Interestingly enough, the temperature there climbed to over 70 just a week later, an amazing swing of over 100 degrees.)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 07F
11:00 AM FST January 26 2012
======================================

At 23:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 07F (1007 hPa) located at 17.8S 164.0E is reported as slow moving. Position POOR based on multisatellite visible imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization in past 24 hours has not improved much. Convection remains persistent in the last 24 hours. The system lies under the 250hpa ridge axis and in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends to 700hpa.

Global models have picked up the system and slowly move it southeast with little intensification.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48hours is low.
I don't know where those numbers came from hydrus , but MANY locations recorded their coldest temps of all time last Feb in Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas during the snow event that gave portions of nw AR 2' of snow. They hit -25* F in Fayetteville there for crying out loud

Edit: The official low for that day was only -18* although unofficial readings were lower. Some other places did set all time lows, though. But they did not set records for all time lowest temps for the states.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=weather-event_2011 feb9
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 26 2012
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (956 hPa) located at 23.6S 39.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 4 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/5.0/W1.0/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
130 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the northern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 24.4S 39.1E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 25.1S 39.2E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 26.7S 39.4E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 30.7S 42.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

2109z 85 GHZ TRMM microwave pictures shows that eyewall replacement cycle is not achieved. External ring (25 NM radius) is approaching to internal ring (12 NM) that is less well-defined. Consequently, system has clearly weakened. Average DT on 6 hours is 4.0. Current intensity has been downgraded at 80 knots.

Within the next 36 hours, system might track globally southward with a quite slow speed under the steering influence of the mid-level ridge existing in its east. Over this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable under the upper level ridge. Sst will slightly decrease but remain favorable. When eyewall replacement cycle will be complete, Funso should start a new intensifying phase, but an uncertainty exists for this possibility.

On and after 36 hours, Funso is expected to accelerate again south-southeastward then southeastward in relationship with a deep trough transiting in the mid-latitude. At this range, system will undergoing more and more cooler sea surface temperature and a strengthening westerly vertical winds hear in the same time. Funso should weaken and then begin its extra-tropical transition.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Woah......really, really intense convection.

is facebook lodeing show for you?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who is picking on who for their age?


KOTG on me. dont bother me that much tho. tomorrow my birthday and notin anybody can say do think will ruin it! lol
Quoting Tazmanian:
is facebook lodeing show for you?


i can't get on facebook at all!!!!
Quoting Tazmanian:
is facebook lodeing show for you?

Facebook is down temporarily.
"I hate It when people start picking on bloggers just for their age.Thats stupid and makes you look even more childish than they are.Just because the blogger doesn't act like the next MH09 or TWX13 doesn't mean they can't be a good addition to this blog.Sorry I'm done now......."

Ehhh man, you forget about me?
lol....

anyhow, just checking in... going to continue update my blog... check in on it when you want, making progress on a full 2011 Hurricane season postseason report.
Thats a wide cone..so, looking at de skinny line, 09S should move SE, make the residents of Learmonth worry a bit, then turn away as a tease lol xD
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Facebook is down temporarily.


WTF!!!!!!!! WHY!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
"I hate It when people start picking on bloggers just for their age.Thats stupid and makes you look even more childish than they are.Just because the blogger doesn't act like the next MH09 or TWX13 doesn't mean they can't be a good addition to this blog.Sorry I'm done now......."

Ehhh man, you forget about me?
lol....

anyhow, just checking in... going to continue update my blog... check in on it when you want, making progress on a full 2011 Hurricane season postseason report.


you a kid? or saying that we should shoot to be the next HurricaneDean07? LOL
i think facebook is being hacked at this time
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Facebook is down temporarily.



They said something yesterday about changing the timeline or whatever today. So that people can access your comments or pics from as far back as you've been on there. So if you've forgotten stuff you may want to delete them. Lol.
Quoting Tazmanian:
i think facebook is being hacked at this time


Anonymous launching a DDOS attack seems feasible.... they have been threatening it...
/9831/idw60280t.gif

Cyclone Watches for Western Australia


--
what is not shown is Cyclone Warnings for western Indonesia by the Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Quoting SPLbeater:


you a kid? or saying that we should shoot to be the next HurricaneDean07? LOL


Im not a "kid" but im Young...
Sarcasm flag: (ON)
And yes you all should strive to be more like me XD
Facebook is working now....
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Anonymous launching a DDOS attack seems feasible.... they have been threatening it...
That would be one hell of a DDoS attack to take down the facebook servers. Wonder how many people are using LOIC on this one.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
That would be one hell of a DDoS attack to take down the facebook servers. Wonder how many people are using LOIC on this one.


LOIC?
Quoting WxGeekVA:


LOIC?
Low Orbit Ion Cannon. Its what you use to DDoS.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Low Orbit Ion Cannon. Its what you use to DDoS.


Ah. Never heard of it.
Quoting Patrap:
2045 - SINGULARITY SCENARIO
More likely that Vermin Supreme will be our president. Plus why in the world would you give conciseness to a machine?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
More likely that Vermin Supreme will be our president. Plus why in the world would you give conciseness to a machine?


My question is why Vermin Supreme wont become president!? He is the most qualified out of all the lunatics in the race.
Quoting yqt1001:


My question is why Vermin Supreme wont become president!? He is the most qualified out of all the lunatics in the race.
Got my vote. Most defiantly the most honest of the bunch. Plus I'v always wanted to explore the pony based economic system.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Got my vote. Most defiantly the most honest of the bunch. Plus I'v always wanted to explore the pony based economic system.


And I think that zombie apocalypse awareness is seriously under-covered in the news as of recently...
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Got my vote. Most defiantly the most honest of the bunch. Plus I'v always wanted to explore the pony based economic system.


I take pride in my teeth, so should everyone else!

A vote for Vermin Supreme is a vote thrown away! Vote early and vote often!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


And I think that zombie apocalypse awareness is seriously under-covered in the news as of recently...
I know right! The oral decay of this nation needs to be stopped ASAP.
For those who don't know what we are talking about: Link
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I know right! The oral decay of this nation needs to be stopped ASAP.


Vote Cthulu for 2012! Why vote for the lesser evil?
Massive landslide in Papua New Guinea claims 40 lives- dozens still missing
Posted on January 25, 2012
January 25, 2012 – P. NEW GUINEA – Dozens of people are feared to have been buried in a massive landslide in the Southern Highlands of Papua New Guinea. According to VOA, at least 40 bodies have been pulled from the debris and as many as 20 others are feared missing. The landslide struck at 7am AEDT yesterday near the Nogoli base for a ExxonMobil-led liquefied natural gas plant site, northwest of Port Moresby. One local said three villages had been covered while another report said only a handful of homes were lost. Radio Australia reported dozens of people were feared buried, quoting a Tari resident as saying about 40 people were missing. The landslide was said to stretch about one kilometer and was 300 meters wide, and had cut a main road in the area. All Australians reported in the area have been accounted for, Radio Australia reported. ExxonMobil said its personnel were all safe. “We have been in contact with the Natural Disaster and Response Office,” ExxonMobil spokeswoman Rebecca Arnold said. “All our personnel are accounted for. We have closed down work in the surrounding area. Ms. Arnold said the landslide is not expected to hinder the project’s completion in 2014. The $16 billion LNG project is due to begin production in 2014 and will see PNG’s natural gas sold across Asia for the next 30 years – a plan projected to double PNG’s gross domestic product. –Daily Telegraph

Landslides hit third country in 24 hours- 15 feared dead in Fiji and Pakistan
Posted on January 26, 2012
January 26, 2012 – FIJI – A couple and their two young children are confirmed to have died in a landslide in flood-stricken Fiji. Their deaths bring to six the number killed in flooding and landslides in the west of the main island Viti Levu. Police have confirmed that the couple, in their 30s, and their their two daughters, aged three and one, were in a house in the Ba district of north western Vita Levu, the Fiji Broadcasting Corporation reports. Earlier in the week a man died in Labasa and another died in Ba. Parts of Nadi, Ba, and Rakiraki were on Thursday declared natural disaster zones. The permanent secretary of information, Sharon Smith-Johns, says the military, police and personnel from non-government organizations and the Red Cross are heading to the affected areas. Ms Smith-Johns says 3400 people are in evacuation centers and more than 100 homes may have been destroyed by the floods. A disaster response advisor for the United Nations, Peter Muller, says attempts to evaluate damage from the floods are being hampered by the remoteness of some communities and bridges which have been washed away by swollen rivers. Mr Muller says the rains have stopped for the time being and floodwaters are receding but the respite may be short lived with the rain set to return within 24 hours. Foreign Affairs Minister Murray McCully says New Zealand will give $350,000 to the Fiji Red Cross and other agencies to assist efforts in the aftermath of the flooding. –Radio New Zealand



Mansehra, PAKISTAN – Police say at least nine miners are feared dead after they were buried by a large landslide in northwest Pakistan. Local police officer Ali Zia says the phosphate miners were eating lunch Wednesday in the mountain village of Tharnawai in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province when the accident occurred. Zia said rescue efforts have been hampered by bad weather and the inability to get heavy machinery to the site. It had been snowing and raining before the slide occurred. Eyewitness Mohammad Khurshid Awan said rescue workers were using shovels in an attempt to uncover the buried miners. Zia, the police officer, said no bodies have yet been recovered. –Dawn
Maybe just maybe...Link
Quoting Patrap:


..you do realize we are connected by thought, thru a machine brought about by thought, as 2 separate thinking Carbon Based entities ?

This being read by you in the future, moments ago written by one of aforementioned entities, me, being A and you being B.

And since this connectivity has allowed this Novelty I must state the Logical.


You sir, are not aware.

Well sir most of the human race is not logical so you must be very frustrated with us.
Could this be the next Major Cyclone of 2012??

Tropical Cyclone Iggy

Issued at 9:08 am WST Thursday 26 January 2012. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 1.


SST's


Ocean Heat Content & Forecast Track

Quoting AussieStorm:
Could this be the next Major Cyclone of 2012??

Tropical Cyclone Iggy

Issued at 9:08 am WST Thursday 26 January 2012. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 1.


SST's


Ocean Heat Content & Forecast Track



hmm still waiting for the advice page.. but ya looks like a "Category 4" is forecast for IGGY.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:


Im not a "kid" but im Young...
Sarcasm flag: (ON)
And yes you all should strive to be more like me XD


LOL
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Say ST2K...where u been? aint seen your frequent posts here for awhile...either that or i aint here when you are xD
Quoting AussieStorm:
Could this be the next Major Cyclone of 2012??

Tropical Cyclone Iggy

Issued at 9:08 am WST Thursday 26 January 2012. Refer to Tropical Cyclone Advice Number 1.


SST's


Ocean Heat Content & Forecast Track



Nah...only expected to reach 80 knots as of 1500Z, thats 92 mph. category 1:)

now I know your in Australia(right?) and they have a different scale. It would be a Cat 3 as you already know:)
Quoting SPLbeater:


Nah...only expected to reach 80 knots as of 1500Z, thats 92 mph. category 1:)

now I know your in Australia(right?) and they have a different scale. It would be a Cat 3 as you already know:)


Don't take the 5 day forecasts so seriously. :P Yasi was only supposed to peak at 80kts for the first 24 hours of his life. I wonder what happened....
Quoting SPLbeater:


Nah...only expected to reach 80 knots as of 1500Z, thats 92 mph. category 1:)

now I know your in Australia(right?) and they have a different scale. It would be a Cat 3 as you already know:)

It would be a Cat 3 in only 72hrs, and still time to get stronger.

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
12: 26/1200: 16.9S 109.6E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 984
24: 27/0000: 17.9S 110.4E: 115 [215]: 055 [100]: 978
36: 27/1200: 18.8S 111.0E: 145 [270]: 065 [120]: 967
48: 28/0000: 19.6S 111.7E: 185 [345]: 075 [140]: 958
60: 28/1200: 20.3S 112.5E: 230 [430]: 085 [155]: 949
72: 29/0000: 20.7S 113.1E: 280 [520]: 090 [165]: 943
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


hmm still waiting for the advice page.. but ya looks like a "Category 4" is forecast for IGGY.


VIS imagery shows the LLCC on the eastern edge of the CDO. CIMSS shear analysis
indicates around 20 knots of easterly shear consistent with the indications from
VIS imagery. Shear pattern gives DT 3.0 with the LLCC not sufficiently
underneath the CDO to yield 3.5. ADT is at 2.7.

Final intensity is set at 40 knots though it is likely that winds on the eastern
side are weaker at present. Overnight the system has begun to move SE'ly as
expected. The ridge to the south is very weak and steering is dominated by the
monsoon flow to the north over the next 72 hours, bringing the system SE towards
the coast. Models indicate SSE or SE movement maintained for around 48 hours
before sufficient ridging develops to the south to steer the system to the west.
Not all models develop sufficient ridging to the alter the course, with some
models maintaining a SE course bringing it across the Pilbara coast.

All available intensity guidance indicates the system will steadily intensify
over the next 3 days and this is consistent with an analysis of the synoptic
conditions. If the system maintains a more SE'ly track it will track over warmer
SSTs. A more southerly track will bring it into an area of shallower warm water
near 20S and may limit intensity due to upwelling of colder water if the system
is slow moving. Shear remains low to moderate over the period and favourable
interaction with an upper trough is possible over the weekend.

Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced
near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of
a strong monsoonal flow.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:



They said something yesterday about changing the timeline or whatever today. So that people can access your comments or pics from as far back as you've been on there. So if you've forgotten stuff you may want to delete them. Lol.

Did that yesterday. :)
09S now 45 knots

Whats with the name Iggy? i mean..nothing else available?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Did that yesterday. :)

and it's not an option if you want it or not, it will be forced on all users whether they like it or not, which sucks, I don't like it on my friends profiles, and I don't want it on mine.
Quoting AussieStorm:

and it's not an option if you want it or not, it will be forced on all users whether they like it or not, which sucks, I don't like it on my friends profiles, and I don't want it on mine.

That's how MySpace has pretty much become unpopular...too many changes that people did not like.
Quoting AussieStorm:

and it's not an option if you want it or not, it will be forced on all users whether they like it or not, which sucks, I don't like it on my friends profiles, and I don't want it on mine.


go to google+.... oh wait, they are violating privacy now... crap.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
9:00 AM WST January 26 2012
================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (986 hPa) located at 16.2S 108.8E or 850 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and 990 kilometres west northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
110 NM from the center

The cyclone is expected to intensify steadily as it approaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy has recurved and is now moving southeast towards the west Pilbara coast at around 9 km/h.

Gales are not expected in coastal communities on Thursday or Friday, however gales may develop on the coast between Whim Creek and Coral Bay on Saturday. Rainfall is likely to increase on Friday in coastal parts of the Pilbara, west Kimberley and possibly on the west coast north of Cape Cuvier.

Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of a strong monsoonal flow.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay.

Forecast and Intensity:
======================

12 HRS: 16.9S 109.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 17.9S 110.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 19.6S 111.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 20.7S 113.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4)

Additional Information
========================

Visible imagery shows the low level circulation center on the eastern edge of the central dense overcast. CIMSS shear analysis indicates around 20 knots of easterly shear consistent with the indications from VIS imagery. Shear pattern gives DT 3.0 with the low level circulation center not sufficiently underneath the central dense overcast to yield 3.5. ADT is at 2.7.

Final intensity is set at 40 knots though it is likely that winds on the eastern side are weaker at present. Overnight the system has begun to move southeasterly as expected. The ridge to the south is very weak and steering is dominated by the monsoon flow to the north over the next 72 hours, bringing the system SE towards the coast. Models indicate SSE or SE movement maintained for around 48 hours before sufficient ridging develops to the south to steer the system to the west. Not all models develop sufficient ridging to the alter the course, with some models maintaining a SE course bringing it across the Pilbara coast.

All available intensity guidance indicates the system will steadily intensify over the next 3 days and this is consistent with an analysis of the synoptic conditions. If the system maintains a more southeasterly track it will track over warmer sea surface temperatures. A more southerly track will bring it into an area of shallower warm water near 20S and may limit intensity due to upwelling of colder water if the system is slow moving. Shear remains low to moderate over the period and favorable interaction with an upper trough is possible over the weekend.

Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of a strong monsoonal flow.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC Iggy will be issued at around 7:30 AM UTC..
Quoting WxGeekVA:


go to google+.... oh wait, they are violating privacy now... crap.

I have a google + but don't use it. I have more friends and relatives that use Facebook than anything else.
Quoting WxGeekVA:




This is what you see if you become aware...

Take the blue pill if you are asked....


Everything you think, do, and say was in the pill you took today
72 HRS: 20.7S 113.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4) 103mph = Cat 2 SSHWS
I got to say, you folks are generally more interesting than facebook - except when you start with politics.. that's a down.
Joe Paterno's ceremony ends tomorrow, and a halo of good weather surrounds State College.

Had a tornado rip through Northeast Austin, Texas Early this morning... Seeing the damage, im thinking it will be called an EF-2 in the end, seeing Ef-2 damage online in other places and comparing it, im in agreement of it being an EF-2
Some pics of the damage:








Maybe a EF-3... Im no expert at classfying Tornado damage
Funso's inner eyewall is fading.
Quoting SPLbeater:
Funso's inner eyewall is fading.

Can see it clearly here.
Quoting PSUweathermet:
Joe Paterno's ceremony ends tomorrow, and a halo of good weather surrounds State College.



Ah, I love state college. I went up there for weather camp last summer and I love the campus and the town. Had the time of my life too.... :P
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Ah, I love state college. I went up there for weather camp last summer and I love the campus and the town. Had the time of my life too.... :P


They just revamped the weather center in the fall O.o
Quoting PSUweathermet:


They just revamped the weather center in the fall O.o


Really? I thought the old one was really state-of-the-art and awesome. I still have the picture of the 30 monitors on my phone.
Quoting PSUweathermet:
Joe Paterno's ceremony ends tomorrow, and a halo of good weather surrounds State College.


My tougues bleeding right now from biting it so hard.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Can see it clearly here.


thats exactly what I based my comment off of, lol
Quoting AlwaysThinkin:


My tougues bleeding right now from biting it so hard.


I bleed blue and white for PSU!!!!! Go Nittany Lions!!!
SO whats the deal with SOPA? what happened there?
Quoting SPLbeater:
SO whats the deal with SOPA? what happened there?


Shelved......for now.
Some signs are subtly sneaky:
New map for what to plant reflects global warming

Global warming is hitting not just home, but garden. The color-coded map of planting zones often seen on the back of seed packets is being updated by the government, illustrating a hotter 21st century.

It's the first time since 1990 that the U.S. Department of Agriculture has revised the official guide for the nation's 80 million gardeners, and much has changed. Nearly entire states, such as Ohio, Nebraska and Texas, are in warmer zones.

The new guide, unveiled Wednesday at the National Arboretum, arrives just as many home gardeners are receiving their seed catalogs and dreaming of lush flower beds in the spring.

It reflects a new reality: The coldest day of the year isn't as cold as it used to be, so some plants and trees can now survive farther north.

"People who grow plants are well aware of the fact that temperatures have gotten more mild throughout the year, particularly in the wintertime," said Boston University biology professor Richard Primack. "There's a lot of things you can grow now that you couldn't grow before."
Full article here.
Well. time for bed. and would you beleive, the answer to my previous question came in an email to 1/4 accounts in spam folder? LOL. SOPA= SHELVED!! :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
Quoting hydrus:
It is worthy to note that almost all of the coldest record temperatures ever set in the conterminous states were set years ago and not recently. To my surprise, most in February.....Rogers Pass, Montana -70 -56.7 Jan 20, 1954
Peter's Sink, Utah -69 -56.1 Feb 1, 1985
Riverside Ranger Station, Yellowstone, Wyoming -66 -54.4 Feb 9, 1933
West Yellowstone, Montana -66 -54.4 Feb 9, 1933
Moran, Wyoming -63 -52.8 Feb 9, 1933
Darwin Ranch, Wyoming -62 -52.2 Feb 10, 1981
Maybell, Colorado -61 -51.7 Feb1, 1985
Border, Wyoming -60 -51.1 Feb8, 1929
Hebgen Dam, Montana -60 -51.1 Feb 12, 1905
Island Park, Idaho -60 -51.1 Jan 18, 1943
Maybell, Colorado -60 -51.1 Jan 1, 1979
Parshall, North Dakota -60 -51.1 Feb 15, 1936
Taylor Park, Colorado -60 -51.1 Feb 1, 1951
Tower, Minnesota -60 -51.1 Feb 2, 1996
West Yellowstone, Montana -60 -51.1 Jan 12, 1963


Parshall! I have a friend who lives out there, it's in the ND oil boom area.
NIGHT NIGHT GUYS . be back tomoroOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOw lol
Does anyone know where this photo has been taken, Thats a S*** load of snow.
Quoting hydrus:
It is worthy to note that almost all of the coldest record temperatures ever set in the conterminous states were set years ago and not recently. To my surprise, most in February.....Rogers Pass, Montana -70 -56.7 Jan 20, 1954
Peter's Sink, Utah -69 -56.1 Feb 1, 1985
Riverside Ranger Station, Yellowstone, Wyoming -66 -54.4 Feb 9, 1933
West Yellowstone, Montana -66 -54.4 Feb 9, 1933
Moran, Wyoming -63 -52.8 Feb 9, 1933
Darwin Ranch, Wyoming -62 -52.2 Feb 10, 1981
Maybell, Colorado -61 -51.7 Feb1, 1985
Border, Wyoming -60 -51.1 Feb8, 1929
Hebgen Dam, Montana -60 -51.1 Feb 12, 1905
Island Park, Idaho -60 -51.1 Jan 18, 1943
Maybell, Colorado -60 -51.1 Jan 1, 1979
Parshall, North Dakota -60 -51.1 Feb 15, 1936
Taylor Park, Colorado -60 -51.1 Feb 1, 1951
Tower, Minnesota -60 -51.1 Feb 2, 1996
West Yellowstone, Montana -60 -51.1 Jan 12, 1963

Obviously bad data. The last nine rows/records/locations are all -60 and -51.1. Show us the source.
Quoting Leafgreen:

Obviously bad data. The last nine rows/records/locations are all -60 and -51.1. Show us the source.
Actually in Minnesota it is -64 in Embarrass same date but since it is not a coop station it is unofficial. The thermometer was tested to be accurate. Embarrass is the coldest place in MN regularly
Most of the cattle were already consumed before they were checked
Posted by Mochizuki on January 25th, 2012 · No Comments

By 1/25/2012, only 35% of the cattle fed with contaminated hay were checked, the rest of 65% of the cattle are likely to be consumed. In July of 2011, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare decided to trace and check the cattle which were fed with contaminated hay (more than 300Bq/kg) after they were distributed.
It was 4626 cattle, distributed to 15 prefectures. However, by the time of 1/25/2012, about 65 % (2996 cattle) have not been checked yet. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare is suspecting they were already consumed by when they decided to trace and check.


Thyroid Abnomalities in 0.7% of Fukushima Children, According to Prefectural Government
Source: EX-SKF
Date: January 25, 2012

From Jiji Tsushin (1/25/2012):

0.7% of children [26 of 3,765] under the age of 18 have developed lumps (on the thyroid) more than 5 millimeters in diamater: “Hard to believe” there is any effect of radiation, says Fukushima prefectural government [...]

Fukushima Medical University, who conducted the test, says, “They are benign lumps. It is highly likely that these lump had existed before, and it is hard to believe there is any effect of radiation”.

However, just in case, the university will conduct additional ultrasound testing and blood testing.

[...] Most of the 26 children are over the age of 6 [...]

[A]ccording to the Fukushima prefectural government there was no case of suspected cancer.


TODAY'S MOST VIEWED

Tepco: Radiation levels from Fukushima increasing — Now releasing 70,000,000 Bq/hr (4120)

“Are you sitting down”? Gamma rays seen in Fukushima footage — Appearing as out-of-focus streaks and flashes (VIDEO) (3878)

Kyodo: Flu epidemic in Japan — Cases per hospital double — Brain-swelling for infants (1588)

“Bewilderment”: Gov’t calling on residents to permanently return inside no-go zone in only weeks — “This is impossible” — I don’t believe the plant is under control, what happens if another quake hits? -Mainichi (1356)

Idaho TV: “Data showed a large spike in deaths — particularly infant deaths — in the 14 weeks following the Fukushima meltdown” -Report (VIDEO) (1307)


LATEST HEADLINES


Tokyo official blasts parents who want kids to avoid ingesting radioactivity at school: “It is important to share the pain” - 10:50 PM EST (Comments: 4)

Gov’t: 26 Fukushima children found with lumps larger than 5mm on thyroid gland - 09:16 PM EST (Comments: 5)

Watch: CNN reporter In Japan measures 42 microsieverts per hour without wearing mask — A “lower level”, about 10 dental x-rays (VIDEO) - 07:22 PM EST (Comments: 22)

*Goodard’s Journal* US gov’t study: Radioactive pollution good for you? Current radiation limits may not be necessary — Exact opposite conclusion of accepted scientific research (VIDEO) - 03:02 PM EST (Comments: 54)

Kyodo: Flu epidemic in Japan — Cases per hospital double — Brain-swelling for infants - 01:09 PM EST (Comments: 47)

Link
Hurricanes look remarkably beautiful once they lose their inner eyewall, and the outer wind radii expands.
SH082012 - Tropical Cyclone (>=96 kt) FUNSO

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery/loop

..click image for Loop





i see some misunderstanding's of Hydrus' post.. note those are coldest temperatures within the shared boundary of the US, excluding Alaska and Hawaii. they are not values for most recent cold temp records experienced at a given locality; the 'thing in common' is that the records reside within the conterminous US... hence the label ;)
and the dual figures are likely lows and highs.
interesting.. ok, moving on.
Quoting Minnemike:
i see some misunderstanding's of Hydrus' post.. note those are coldest temperatures within the shared boundary of the US, excluding Alaska and Hawaii. they are not values for most recent cold temp records experienced at a given locality; the 'thing in common' is that the records reside within the conterminous US... hence the label ;)
and the dual figures are likely lows and highs.
interesting.. ok, moving on.
Dual numbers are Fahrenheit and Celsius.
Quoting AlwaysThinkin:


My tougues bleeding right now from biting it so hard.


And why might you be biting your tongue?
NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near futurelink
Quoting nymore:
Dual numbers are Fahrenheit and Celsius.
thanks :)
*cue awkward silence*
Quoting KoritheMan:
*cue awkward silence*


whats up kori?




www.solarham.com

Updated 1/26/2012 @ 05:55 UTC
C-Class flares
After a day of nearly no flare activity, Sunspot 1402 produced two C-Class flares as it continues to rotate towards the western limb. The first flare measured C5.8, followed by a C7.9 at 01:49 UTC Thursday morning. These flares are small in comparison to the strong M8.7 earlier in the week, however 1402 is putting on a bit of a show before it rotates onto the limb and out of direct Earth view. This region has a Beta-Gamma magnetic classification, and there is a 25% chance for an M-Class flare.

UPDATE: Sunspot 1402 just produced a long duration C6.4 solar flare and a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is visible in the latest Lasco C2 images. Because 1402 continues to rotate into a less geoeffective position, the expanding plasma cloud will most likely be directed away from Earth. More information in the morning.

CME off Northwest Limb (Early Thursday) - Lasco C2
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 26 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (956 hPa) located at 24.0S 39.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 3 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 60 NM in the northern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
150 NM radius from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 24.6S 39.3E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 25.4S 39.2E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 27.1S 40.1E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 31.7S 43.9E - 35 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
======================

0326 AM UTC 91 GHZ SSMIS microwave pictures shows that eyewall replacement cycle is now achieved. Only remains The external ring (27 NM radius). Within the next 36 hours, system might track globally southward with a quite slow speed under the steering influence of the mid-level ridge existing in its east. Over this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable under the upper level ridge. Sea surface temperature will slightly decrease but remain favorable in the next 12-24 hours. So with the end of the eyewall replacement cycle, Funso should start a new intensifying phase, but an uncertainty exists for this possibility.

On and after 36 hours, Funso is expected to accelerate again south southeastward then southeastward In relationship with a deep trough transiting in the mid-latitude. At this range, system will undergoing more and more cooler sea surface temperature and a strengthening westerly vertical wind shear in the same time. Funso should weaken and then begin its extra-tropical transition.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


whats up kori?


Exercising. You?
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGGY, CATEGORY ONE (11U)
3:00 PM WST January 26 2012
=================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category One (986 hPa) located at 16.5S 108.8E or 820 km northwest of Exmouth and 970 km west northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
--------------------
110 NM from the center

The cyclone is expected to intensify steadily as it approaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy is moving southeast towards the west Pilbara coast at about 6 km/h.

Gales are not expected in coastal communities on Thursday or Friday, however gales may develop on the coast between Whim Creek and Coral Bay on Saturday afternoon or overnight into Sunday. Rainfall is likely to increase on Friday in coastal parts of the Pilbara, west Kimberley and possibly on the west coast north of Cape Cuvier.

Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of a strong monsoonal flow.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay.

Forecast and Intensity:
======================

12 HRS: 17.4S 109.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 18.3S 110.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 19.9S 111.8E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 20.8S 113.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4)

Additional Information
========================

The system has weakened during the day and the low level circulation center is no longer under the central dense overcast and is not particularly well organized. Animated visible imagery has been used for the 0600 AM UTC fix. Positions for previous 6 hours have been re-analyzed using visible imagery, ASCAT pass from 0135 AM UTC and SSMIS pass at 0035 AM UTC. ASCAT pass shows 45 knot winds to the north of the system and an area of gales to the south. The ASCAT pass supports a gale radius of around 110 NM in the northern quadrant. Separation of low level circulation center to overcast exceeded 0.5 degrees on 0430Z and 0530Z images giving DT=2.5. MET and PAT are 2.5 so FT is set to 2.5 but CI held at 3.0 which is in broad agreement with the ASCAT pass. ADT is running at 2.8 and no recent AMSU or SATCON intensity estimates were available at time of issue.

The 0:00 AM UTC CIMSS shear analysis indicates around 20 knots of shear but the spatial analyzes show the shear has increased by 5-10 knots over the northern half of the circulation.

The ridge to the south is very weak and steering is dominated by the monsoon flow to the north over the next 72 hours, bringing the system southeast towards the coast. Models indicate south southeast or southeast movement maintained for around 48 hours before sufficient ridging develops to the south to steer the system to the west. Not all models develop sufficient ridging to the alter the course, with some models maintaining a southeast course bringing it across the Pilbara coast.

All available intensity guidance indicates the system will steadily intensify over the next 3 days and this is consistent with an analysis of the synoptic conditions, though the current shear may limit intensification in the short term. If the system maintains a more southeasterly track it will track over warmer sea surface temperatures. A more southerly track will bring it into an area of shallower warm water near 20S and may limit intensity due to upwelling of colder water if the system is slow moving. Shear remains low to moderate over the period and favorable interaction with an upper trough is possible over the weekend.

Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of a strong monsoonal flow.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center on TC Iggy will be issued at around 13:30 PM UTC..
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 07F
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F

18:00 FST January 26 2012
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 07 (1005 hPa) located at 18.0S 164.0E is reported as slow moving. Position POOR based on multisatellite infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization in past 24 hours has not improved much. Convection remains persistent in the last 24 hours. The system lies under the 250hpa ridge axis and in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends to 850hpa.

Global models have picked up the system and slowly move it southeast with little intensification.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low.

System #2
----------

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 08 (1004 hPa) located at 17.3S 179.0W is reported as slow moving. Position FAIR based on multisatellite infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization in past 24 hours has not improved much. Convection displaced to the east of low level circulation center. The system lies along a weak surface trough under 250hpa diffluent region and in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends to 700hpa.

Global models have picked up the system and slowly move it southeast with little intensification.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Had a tornado rip through Northeast Austin, Texas Early this morning... Seeing the damage, im thinking it will be called an EF-2 in the end, seeing Ef-2 damage online in other places and comparing it, im in agreement of it being an EF-2
Some pics of the damage:








Maybe a EF-3... Im no expert at classfying Tornado damage
Hearing it was EF-1
Quoting AussieStorm:
Does anyone know where this photo has been taken, Thats a S*** load of snow.
That picture (and the one below) were taken at Japans's Yuki-no-Otani Snow Canyon in Toyama prefecture.

Flurries
They named a cyclone 'Iggy'?

If it is was in the Atlantic, that's exactly what everyone would be doing, clicking the 'iggy' button on eachother.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Had a tornado rip through Northeast Austin, Texas Early this morning... Seeing the damage, im thinking it will be called an EF-2 in the end, seeing Ef-2 damage online in other places and comparing it, im in agreement of it being an EF-2
Some pics of the damage:








Maybe a EF-3... Im no expert at classfying Tornado damage


I'm more of a Tornado guy than a Hurricane observer, and from the pictures most of the damage was from straight line winds, there were several tornado's the damage seemed light, trees fences and structures that can't handle winds. I would say an EF1, or a small EF2 at most, the distances were short, and narrow, here is a link to some of the damage.

http://texasstormchasers.com/2012/01/25/january-2 5-2012-tornado-surveys/
Quoting CybrTeddy:
They named a cyclone 'Iggy'?

If it is was in the Atlantic, that's exactly what everyone would be doing, clicking the 'iggy' button on each other.

I guess there is a lot of people in NW Western Australia wanting to hit iggy on "Iggy" also.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near futurelink


Global what?



TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 8:45 pm WST on Thursday, 26 January 2012
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral Bay.

At 8:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category 1 was estimated to be
800 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
940 kilometres west northwest of Karratha and
moving east southeast at 6 kilometres per hour towards the west Pilbara coast.

Over the next 72 hours TC Iggy will steadily intensify while moving
southeastwards towards the western Pilbara coast.

Gales are not expected in coastal communities on Friday, however gales may
develop on the coast between Whim Creek and Coral Bay on Saturday afternoon or
overnight into Sunday. Rainfall is likely to increase on Friday in coastal parts
of the Pilbara, west Kimberley and possibly on the west coast north of Cape
Cuvier.

Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced
near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of
a strong monsoonal flow.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Whim Creek and Coral Bay, including communities
near Karratha, Onslow and Exmouth, should listen for the next issue.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Iggy at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.5 degrees South 109.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 981 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Friday 27 January.
Why do other basin's always get the interesting names...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Why do other basin's always get the interesting names...

cause there is so many countries that put names in.
For those following the current storm action in the Pacific Basin/Austrailia, here is the ENSO status from a few weeks ago. La Nina starting to wane; to early to tell whether the Caribbean Season this Summer/Fall will swing into El Nino but looking right now as starting out in Enso Neutral conditions. But notice that the storm season for Austrialia peaks in Feb and March:

La Niña shows some weakening
Issued on Wednesday 18 January | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

While La Niña conditions clearly remain, some indicators have weakened over the past fortnight. Similarly, the majority of climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest a gradual decline of the current La Niña, with most models suggesting an end of the event during the coming autumn season.

La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall and below normal daytime temperatures from winter through summer across eastern and northern Australia. Tropical cyclone risk is increased for northern Australia during the cyclone season (November to April), peaking in February and March. For detailed rainfall, temperature and tropical cyclone outlooks, please see: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead.


Good Morning everyone...............Keeping an eye on the pending frontal passage for the Gulf States and Florida Panhandle today.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Some signs are subtly sneaky:Full article here.


RE: The new plant hardiness zones.

I'm hoping that this graphic will get updated.

http://www.arborday.org/media/mapchanges.cfm

It shows how planting zones changed between 1990 and 2006. Now we have seen even further change.
New??

SOI still at +11.4

Quoting Bergeron:


Global what?



You post a graph with no context to counteract the temperature records coming from no less than 5 separate data sources? Please, do tell which cherry picked data is used for that graph. Perhaps a link to the site would be useful. Hopefully it is a legitimate source and not some pseudo-science hack site.

Look, if the the US Department of Agriculture is releasing updated growing charts as a result of climate change, it really is time to stop covering your ears and screaming "la-la-la".
Quoting Xyrus2000:


You post a graph with no context to counteract the temperature records coming from no less than 5 separate data sources? Please, do tell which cherry picked data is used for that graph. Perhaps a link to the site would be useful. Hopefully it is a legitimate source and not some pseudo-science hack site.

Look, if the the US Department of Agriculture is releasing updated growing charts as a result of climate change, it really is time to stop covering your ears and screaming "la-la-la".


The graph is from NCEP



Quoting Thrawst:
Funso is looking annular. Decent squall line in the gulf..
The name Iggy reminded me of Fifi in 74..The name Fifi may sound inappropriate for such a devastating killer...Hurricane Fifi (later Hurricane Orlene) was a catastrophic tropical cyclone that killed between 3,000 and 10,000 people in Honduras in September 1974, ranking it as the fourth deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record. Originating from a strong tropical wave on September 14, the system steadily tracked west-northwestward through the eastern Caribbean Sea. On September 16, the depression intensified into Tropical Storm Fifi just off the coast of Jamaica. The storm quickly intensified into a hurricane the following afternoon and attained its peak intensity on September 18 as a strong Category 2 hurricane. Maintaining hurricane intensity, Fifi brushed the northern coast of Honduras before making landfall in Belize the following day. The storm quickly weakened after landfall, becoming a depression late on September 20. Continuing westward, the former hurricane began to interact with another system in the eastern Pacific.

Early on September 22, Fifi re-attained tropical storm status before fully regenerating into a new tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Orlene. Orlene storm traveled in an arced path toward Mexico while quickly intensifying into a Category 2 hurricane before landfall. The storm weakened after landfall and dissipated fully during the afternoon of September 24 over the mountains of Mexico. Along its path, Fifi impacted nine countries, leaving over 8,200 fatalities and $1.8 billion (1974 USD; $8.02 billion 2012 USD) in damages. Most of the loss of life and damage occurred in Honduras where rainfall from the hurricane, peaking around 24 in (610 mm), triggered widespread flash flooding and mudslides.

In a single town, between 2,000 and 5,000 people were killed overnight after a massive flood inundated the area. Fifi brought continuous rainfall to the area for three days, hampering relief efforts in what was the worst disaster in Honduras' history at the time. In nearby Guatemala, an additional 200 people were killed by severe flooding, making Fifi the worst hurricane to impact the country in nearly 20 years. Following the catastrophic damage wrought by the storm, relief agencies from around the world flew in emergency supplies to assist the hundreds of thousands of homeless people. Countries closer to Honduras, such as the United States, set up city donation centers that would send supplies to the country. In efforts to prevent the spread of post-storm diseases, the government allowed the burning of bodies as they were recovered. In a single day, up to 6,000 bodies were burned. Due to the extreme damage and loss of life, the name was retired from the list of Atlantic hurricane names and has not been used since.
Quoting Bergeron:


The graph is from NCEP




lol... This guy is posting a 3yr plot of global temperature anomalies based on the 30yr average of '81-'10 to try and prove that AGW is not real. The graphs could very well be from NCEP but they were selectively chosen by a website that is so crazy they write half the articles in Latin.
Filling in nicely now..
The net-zero-energy home.
I do wonder about whether the energy to manufacture the materials&technology used to build&run the house is higher than for a regular house; and whether the energy-payback period is sufficiently low as to make a "net-zero-energy" home more sustainable than a regular house.
Its my birthday

Iggy
Must be hell on those islands in the middle of that extremely intense convection.


Quoting SPLbeater:
Its my birthday


Happy birthday!

Quoting aspectre:
The net-zero-energy home.
I do wonder about whether the energy to manufacture the materials&technology used to build&run the house is higher than for a regular house; and whether the energy-payback period is sufficiently low as to make a "net-zero-energy" home more sustainable than a regular house.


Seeing new houses built by Lennar with solar panels on the west side of the roofs now. Odd seeing those now, wonder how they will hold up in a hurricane or hail storm though, and how much insurance is to cover them and so on.
Quoting yqt1001:


Happy birthday!



Thank u! I am officially a teenager lol xD
218. MahFL
Quoting RitaEvac:


Seeing new houses built by Lennar with solar panels on the west side of the roofs now. Odd seeing those now, wonder how they will hold up in a hurricane or hail storm though, and how much insurance is to cover them and so on.


How can you have privicy and still get solar heating, everyone can see what you have in the rooms to steal !
Rina's TCR is out.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182011_Rina.pd f

She was upgraded to a major hurricane!

19-7-4

Rina at peak intensity.