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Heavy rains continue in Puerto Rico and northern Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:46 PM GMT on October 20, 2006

An area of low pressure just northeast of Puerto Rico (90L), continues to spread heavy rain and gusty winds over the northern Lesser Antilles islands. Wind shear over the disturbance has dropped to 10 knots, and is forecast to stay below 20 knots the next two days, which may allow some slow development. The storm has not become any better organized over the past day, however. A QuikSCAT satellite pass last night revealed no well-defined closed circulation, and top winds were just 15-25 mph. Unfortunately, the Puerto Rico radar failed Wednesday. There are two television stations on the island that maintain radars--televicentropr.com (click on "Super Doppler Max" and wait for the animation to load) and Univision (click on "El Tiempo" and scroll to the bottom.) The Univision radar had not updated for 15 hours when I checked this morning. Gracias to Hector Ivan Soto Nazario, P.E. ASCS, Vice President of the Central Industrial Cleaning Corp. of Guaynabo, Puerto Rico, who provided me these handy links.

Flood watches have been posted this morning in eastern Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, where up to five inches of rain fell yesterday. Additional heavy rains are expected today, and 90L will also bring heavy rains and potential flash flooding to the much of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands and eastern Puerto Rico over the next day.

Visible satellite animations show that 90L is pushing slowly northeastward out to sea. This motion is expected to continue over the next few days, and 90L will likely not trouble any more land areas by Saturday night. Yesterday afternoon's run of the GFDL model did intensify 90L into a tropical storm, but none of the other models are doing so. I expect the system is too small and disorganized to become a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance "90L".

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical development in the Atlantic over the next six days. Some of the models show the possibility of a tropical storm forming along the Pacific coast of Mexico early next week and moving towards Baja, but this has a low probability of happening.

I'll be back with an update Saturday morning. For those of you interested, there have been some good posts on the "View from the Surface" blog this month--an interview with Dr. Kerry Emanuel of MIT, plus a review of his excellent book, The Divine Wind; a report on a recent Nature magazine article accusing NOAA of suppressing the views of scientists who link intense hurricanes with climate change; and also today's game of guess the quote from the hurricane article.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Dr Masters,

Thanks for the update! Have a wonderful Friday.
Gams
Good update, thanks. This season seems to be over for hurricanes that might threaten the US, as we are into a November pattern with snow and cold pushing southward from Canada into the plains states and a never-ending parade of troughs pushing any tropical systems that might develop out into the Atlantic. The only threat (which is receding by the day) would be for a system to form in the Caribbean and push northward into the Gulf of Mexico..
Thank you Dr. Masters.
Thanks Dr. M! Sorry Rand, but the season is over, for mainland hits anyway! whoooohoooooo
Now just praying I won't have to eat crow.....
Only news is confirmation for the Dr. information. Tropics have pretty much nothing of any note at all.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS STILL OCCURRING IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1005 MB LOW ANALYZED JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AND
A SFC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO THE NRN COAST OF
COLOMBIA. WHILE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA...THE LOW ITSELF
IS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR ITS BROAD
ILL-DEFINED CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240
NM OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY S OF 16N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
IS ALSO OCCURRING FARTHER E ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS EXTENDING
NE FOR 200 NM. THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY PRODUCED BY UPPER
DIFFLUENT AIR AND MOIST SWLY FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE LARGE CUT
OFF LOW OVER HISPANIOLA. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN...W OF 75W...AS VERY DRY STABLE AIR
CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO'S UPPER RIDGE. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WLY WINDS BEING REPORTED W OF THE
TROUGH TO 75W OR SO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
VARIABLE FRI AND SAT AS THE SFC TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. THEREAFTER MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY TRADES WILL RESUME.
look at coast of colombia you can see weak low forming could that be what nogap been forecast for past few days?
Wow!!!!

Talk about a DEAD blog!

This thing is off life support. I guess it is to be expected when the tropics are dead and boring as well..

Sigh....
Yeh nash, its dead and buried maybe. Oh well, back to work. Thank goodness its Friday. Payday, yippeee...... Wait, what am I saying, its me wot has to do the paying. Spoils everything..........
Hi Nash.....Bye Nash......see ya Tuesday.
Oh sorry....Hi Pottery (blushing)
Hello all
GATORX, I turn on this machine, and there you are. Life is filled with blissful moments.......
..Star Trek..redu..Link
CYBR, was it you that was planning to go hurricane hunting ..........???
Good morning,

It looks like the Nogaps maybe correct as there seems to be a broad area of mid-level ciculation moving slowly into the western caribbean. Once the cold-front pushes down there it may help to inhance the system.Pressures are low across the caribbean and look to remain that way for a while.Shear also looks to be low across the caribbean.

Here is a visible shot at the entire caribbean.
Yo, Pattrap. Having a sunny day?? Lots of atmospheric rumblings to my east........
Ahhh Nash, this blog is never dead. Slow sometimes, but works for us all year. Not just cane season.
I am secduled to fly into a named storm yes..
Here it comes again... get alittle sun in the morning and boom, I can already hear the thunder in San Juan and it feels like its the evening right now here, getting pretty dark.
cybr, you may have to wait for next season???????????
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT FRI OCT 20 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ACCOMPANIED BY A SMALL SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION
...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


GDFL and FSU MM5 are very agressive developing this system. Other models show varying degrees of something, but not as much.

Anyone know anything about the reliability of the mm5fsu?
Gotta go. I'll check back later. Hope everyone has a good or improving day.
I'm out too...........
Yea lowercal 92E seems to be getting organized...Here is a RGB shot of the system. BAJA again might be threaten by an another tropical system but this one is expected to be in a much weaker state as over all conditions do not favor sinificant intensification.


25. 0741
if you look at carribbean sat pic down near colombia coast you can see weak low as it spin that were the nogaps spin system up at
Blob alert. In the GOM on tale end of front starting to flare up at 26n96w.
Blob alert. In the GOM on tale end of front starting to flare up at 26n96w.

Death to GOM blobs!
Quick, everyone, blow the blob away with your breath! On the count of three.

One...
...Two...
...THREE!!!
You mean that little thing?
1900, Let's not forget all things come from humble beginnings.
I know, but, at least in my opinion, that's a little too humble...
El Nino is getting rather strong

Link
Ok...let me bring some action tothe blog pros.

I will spend next week in San Antonio....

weather ....recommendations....hip boots, umbrella, sun screen.... blob gear...

thanks,,,,,roaming reel bull.....
34. eye
hurricane23, plagerism is wrong....from hurricanecity

Posted by jimw on 10/20/2006, 10:42 am
User logged in as: jimw

There is now a broad mid level circulation drifting west into the western caribbean. http://www.hurricanecity.com/closeup.htm
water temps are plenty warm & shear is weakening. Once a cold front moves down,it could enhance this system & it needs to be watched. Pressures are already pretty low in the western caribbean.


"FLags of Our Fathers" ..a new entry on my Blog...with Photos of Pacific,weather related also included.
nash - were you ever in a Batman movie? You have the most hilarious reactions!

No, but I have a way with the English language:-)

I am also extremely sarcastic, but you knew that already!
And I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night....
It's o.k...it spices up the conversation and gives GREAT comic relief. I wish I could remember those when I am working. I think I am going to make myself a cheat sheet of "nashims" and whip it out of my pocket when I am in meetings. I could have used that one today when someone screwed up the general ledger (it's really boring unless you apply a nashism to it)
Hi Nash...I keep missing you on this blog
Where am I?..LOL
Gretchen Parker of the Tampa Tribune did a phone interview with me over a week ago. Here is a quote from her, "I wound up with so many notes from interviews that I could never include them all! Our talk gave me insight though, as I was writing so I really do appreciate that" Her article came out Wednesday, October 18th. I wasn't mentioned in the article by name but was one of many whom gave her insight into weather bloggers.

http://www.tbo.com/news/nationworld/MGB2AWU6FTE.html

HA HA HA!!!! I love it Saddle!!!!

By way, you were mentioned on the front page, MAIN STORY three days ago on the Tampa Tribune.
I feel lost in da ether..
Hey Gator! I have missed you lately! How are ya?
Hey Pat. I miss you too:-)

Feel better???
I know...she said something about a "horse farmer". I feel so famous. I kept telling everyone - that's me, that's me...nearly got me busted though when they said "when do you get on that blog?"...then I backed down and said "oh, that sounds like me, but I am only on during THE EVENINGS!".
Better now Nash....and I have a surprise for all of my physics students starting Monday...I think you will really love it...I mean I KNOW you will love it...being visual and all.
Wuba goes national! I got an e-mail back from the Writer of the article after e-mailing her thanking her.Yall done good GainesvilleGator..
O.K. I gotta go feed the farm.
advertisers on the blogs can you believe that..bay area loan guy
Before I leave. Everyone should send her an e-mail or letter. She was so kind and thoughtful. We talked forever. She has good interviewing skills - either that or she was like "and where did this hick come from!"
You're getting me excited Gator:-)
Nash...you can only dream about this one until Monday...not another word out of my mouth....I designed it with you in mind...my star super smarty pants.
I would LOVE to interview with her!!!!

What was her name again???
her e-mail is on the article page..
Gretchen
so what are the thoughts on the 2006 hurricanes season over or not yet
Thanks.

I just wish I could have been interviewed for that piece......



In fact, my wife even asked me why I wasn't mentioned since I am on here so much, and in her words...... I kid you not.... "have such a KICK ASS rating:-)"!!!!
Everyone go quiet all of a sudden???
Nash...you totally ignored my second comment silly.
2006 hurricane season is basically over, save for a hybrid system created by a stalled front in the GOM. Even those days are ticking away.
Sorry Gator. I can wait. Probably not a good time to hit me with a physics question right now anyways..
sounds good nash
LMAO Nash....you are so not getting it.
The whole WUBA membership..and The Wunderground..has set THE bar for this Medium.What we can do is be content..that the site is strong..and percieved in the public eye..as a good thing.
No, I guess I don't get it today.

Had a really rough day today...
Gator you have mail my dear.
Mail back nash
Hi all

Been away for a few days. Not much seems to be happening but the pressures are REAL low in the NW Caribbean. The buoy S of Jamaica also has the same reading.

Interesting

Link
Kmanislander, do you have some free time to help me with something?
2006 Hurricasne season ends on the last day of November...just like every one before.....
Hi Wishcasterboy

If I can I will. Whats up ??
Well I've been having an extremely hard time posting pictures. I need to learn how to do this for my next blog entry. If you or Rand could help that would be great!
It's a Yogi Berra thing.....It ain't over till it's over.
Wishcasterboy

If you find out how to post images let me know !!. That is something I still haven't mastered but Rand and many others know how.

I tried following the instructions but no luck. Will probably ask my 11 yr old how to do it

LOL
Go to MichaelSTL's blog...he has instructions I believe for posting.
Even then it's not really over.... Link
throw in the towel????

Not till midnight on 30 November . . . .

lol
Anyway I have to take the family out for dinner now

Regarding the 06 season in the absence of something developing in the next 10 days I would say its over. The only caveat is that the water temps are still high in the Caribbean as nothing has passed through the NW Caribbean this yr. If a front comes down either in Oct or Nov there is still a chance for one more in my book.
Mike tried to help me last night. That didn't go over well.
There's an official wikipedia page for how to post pictures on the Wunderground . . . . I've used it a couple times.

kaysee
Oh, Kate was a late season hurricane not and after season one.
I think there is still a chance for another system. However, I think it is a wee chance . . . . . .
Things like this happen......




Am I right to think that so-called "post season" storms usually happen when the season has been fairly busy on a regular basis right through October and November?
That's probably why nobody wants to help you post photos.
Baha...that's the usual scenario....but weird stuff can happen off season any year.
Oh!, i've had plenty of help I just don't get it!
Late season.




Even on a year like this?, I think not.... Link
LOL
To all Wishcasters: Next season will break that record with none!
Posting images:

(img src="paste URL here")

( is sctually a less-than sign
) is actually a greater-than sign (you cannot use them in posts to show something because they will be read as HTML).

Add this between the last quote and the greater-than sign at the end for large images:

width=640

Note: Dr. Masters does not want you posting images larger than 250 KB, regardless of the size in pixels. Here is a picture that illustates this:


Link for more information.
oH!!!!!!
Practice posting photos on your own blog please!
Yes! it worked! thank you Michael.
cyclone, what are you doing? If you want to practice, either do what Randrewl said or use the Preview Comment button. If you do this, you don't have to worry about messing up your blog (or this one); you can also use Modify Comment to modify your comment if it is messed up; in fact, this is probably better to use, because, along with Preview Comment, you can look at your comment and see what went wrong.
I didn't mean to do that! Gorgive master Randrewl!
Cyclone,

if you need help come to my blog.
Are you trying to post a link? Use the Link button and preview your comment; that is why you see a Preview Comment button next to Post Comment.
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 12:16 AM GMT on October 21, 2006.

I am so mad I want to toss my computer out the window. I am getting oldtimers. I had it the other night and I forgot! The "Tunnels" have worn my brain out thinking about them!!

LOL... Alzheimer's from the tunnels... LOL

Have you ever tried talking to the President, NOAA, or somebody else about them? How about Al Gore?
Kerry Emanual knows about the tunnels... LOL!

Isn't that why Margie Kieper kicked you off her blog? He doesn't know anything about them and probably would laugh in your face (or does he; do you know something about him that I don't?).
LOLololOLOLOloloLOLOLololoLOLololOLOLololOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He has no real idea of what you want to do; you are saying that you tunnels don't need power to work; they will NOT work for several reasons (one being that cold water is a lot denser and heavier than warm water; that is why it sinks). Yes; I have seen others say this on other sites; you ignore them (LOL).
It's all that methane gas in your tunnels!
Somehow I ran across this page from the NHC...Cyclone.....read!
For the bag/pipe method you would have to preposition your system across all possible approaches for hurricanes. Just for the US mainland from Cape Hatteras to Brownsville would mean covering 528,000 sq mi (850,000 sq km) of ocean floor with devices.

Lastly, consider the creatures of the sea. If you suddenly cool the surface layer of the ocean (and even turn it temporarily fresh), you would alter the ecology of that area and probably kill most of the sea life contained therein. A hurricane would be devastating enough on them without our adding to the mayhem.

LMAO!!
No, no difference...it is completely idiotic and you know it. To keep this nonsense up only reinforces your idiocy!
Go here to continue talking about them

Or did you forget that you have your own blog?
LOL Michael.
Cyclone,

You got mail!
Feel free to do it here Cyclone.
Idiocy....here's another idiotic idea:

During each hurricane season, there always appear suggestions that one should simply use nuclear weapons to try and destroy the storms. Apart from the fact that this might not even alter the storm, this approach neglects the problem that the released radioactive fallout would fairly quickly move with the tradewinds to affect land areas and cause devastating environmental problems. Needless to say, this is not a good idea.

Posted By: cyclonebuster at 8:14 PM CDT on October 20, 2006. (hide)
Got to go man my boy is hungry! He is going to be a giant of a man!

Don't come back unless you are not going to talk about tunnels, or go to your blog if you want to talk about them. Remember this:
Admin Notice When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged as Spam and ignored.
Admin Notice When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged as Spam and ignored.

Rand, this is good imformation for you!! LOL
I'm going out tonight see ya!
I'll take my chances boy....don't start your immature attacks tonight.
Evening..Randrewl..
Hey Patrap! So just how cool and nice is it tonight?
I had a hill of a morning with my system..I think I told ya this am..was crazy..
Yeah I heard.
You gonna flip...Link
Good evening folks. I would like to send my warmest wishes to everyone here, as I have just celebrated my first year. (membership ran out; Victoria's Secret models everywhere!)
That's all. Nothing weather-related to report.

I now return you to your regularly scheduled blogging. WOOF!
Boy, u can tell the season seems to have gone west. This is the most foolishness I've seen in here in simply ages . . . .

LOL

LOL
Its like..good troll hunting in da morning weather..LOL
Bragging is allowed....that looks real nice Pat.
I heard Victoria Secret?..Where,who?..what she wearing?...LOL
AQUA!
Post your sources Aqua!
Its sweet Rand..just perfect..I keep waiting to hear the Trailer A/c kick on..LOL..but it dosent.
Patrap...if you're not a member...you get lots of advertising on this site. Obviously, Vickie's Secret spends a lot here. Hmmmm...and I thought we were just a bunch of weather nerds...
Got some nice words from some who seen my new entry..Was a lotta uploading..Phew!
LOL...
Now that Im healed..Im looking to go Back into the Gutting of Homes Business..Full tilt.
So, you're telling me I paid for a membership and now I can't see the lingerie ads? What a crock!
So my posts will dwindle accordingly..LOLLink
Rand..I saw the ads this morning when I couldnt get on..I was like..like..someone on crack..LOL!
PATRAP you can not leave us.
Michael is always saving us time on those quick links....see how fast he put that one up!
Michael....stop looking at that!!
Had like..bunch of mail I seen .Then boom//ads & no nothing..UGH!..Plus I just loaded some new Photo software..was like..on 2 phones..Bellsouth & Cali for WU...
Posted By: aquak9 at 12:00 AM EDT on October 04, 2006.
Patrap...yours was the breath of resiliancy, a memory so many would like to forget...can't imagine you were banned! your posts were the whisper in our ear (all is not right) a quiet, understated reminder of what had passed (we died, many of us), and a desperate yet determined hope for the future (we are still here)...simple young foolishness on the part of Admin! remember who they are...remember who YOU are....let not that pass from you!
Gota make the money aqua.Bloggings neat.But Im ready to get back at it.Plus ..youll see the city as it is now thru my new spifffy Binocular Camera..LOL
Just search for "victoria's secret" in Google. Link
aww..Gee aqua..Im gonna starting turning mauve."U stoppa dat u Crazy Merican gurl!"...
You and your cameras, Patrap...they worry me. Uhm...you can't see ME right now, can you?
You can find almost anything with Google... that is how I found Weather Underground.
click on this one to see aqua better...then click the image to enlarge!..Link
ya bgotta like da one..LOL!
Geez....you can see anything....
Michaels right..I cant find Mr.French from Family Affair though..
Looks like a serious Lurker to me.
ROFL Pat!
Mr. French with someone I would have never guessed...Link
More blog bumps in the past 15 mins than this one has seen in the past 12 hours.
I might have to make a gloosy in the Hi-rez..LOL!...Link
LOL...I remember that one Pat.
See waht having me here does?
.N/a
Will follow...and bring aqua too...
yes I'm outta here. Have fun with your tunnel(vision) audience, CB!
198. 0741
after hour blog!!!!!!!!!!!
we have a blow up!!!....td11!!!.......AKA 93L
jus991/weatherblog

000
ABNT20 KNHC 210206
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

Cyclone, It's not much but need I say it's moving west.
Cyclone, My leg is still wet from GOM blob comment earlier today. All the experts have moved on tonight maybe they will catch up with us later!!??
3:43pm cdt
Darn thing evaporated any way!
Shear low. SST still high. Moving West. Looks like nothing right?
Nighty nite.
Although(knock on wood)this season has been relatively benign, this latest "disturbance" has been a real pain in the rear for those of us on Puerto Rico. We've had daily T-storms which play havock with the pwr grid and already screwed up traffic.... Can't wait for this Low to move off of where it now sits, and sits and sits....
Ok in your Opinion post the photo of what you think had the biggest eye of a Hurricane
This PDF (page 2) has a radar of Typhoon Carmen (not so good); the eye was over 200 miles wide and is the largest ever recorded (over 100 times wider than the smallest, Wilma).
Here is the picture (screenshot):

STL what year was that
Anyone know what typhoon it was, some time during WWII, they saved our planes by facing them into the wind and running them almost wide open?
There are two who can play this game



Radio Detection And Ranging image of Hurricane Carmen.
Carmen was a weird hurricane, just look at her report.

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on August 23. It moved quickly westward, and organized into a tropical depression on August 29, 140 miles east of Guadeloupe. It passed quickly through the islands on the 30th, and with favorable upper level outflow and warm Caribbean Sea water temperatures, the depression strengthened to a tropical storm later that day while south of the Mona Passage.

Carmen continued to strengthen, and became a hurricane just southeast of Jamaica on August 31. Low-level inflow was restricted during its early life from Hispaniola and Cuba to the north, but as Carmen headed through the Western Caribbean Sea away from landmasses, the hurricane rapidly intensified to a 150 mph Category 4 hurricane on September 2. Later that day, Carmen struck just north of Chetumal, Mexico on the eastern side of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Within 12 hours of making landfall, Carmen quickly weakened to a tropical storm, with a greatly disrupted circulation. It gradually reorganized over the Gulf of Mexico, and became a hurricane again on September 5 over the Gulf of Mexico. Moving due northward over 85 degree September waters with favorable conditions aloft, Carmen again reached its peak of 150 mph winds on September 8 as it approached the Louisiana coast. Cooler, drier air weakened Carmen slightly prior to Morgan City, Louisiana landfall, but the hurricane hit with winds of 120 mph on the 8th. The storm deteriorated rapidly over land before dissipating over East Texas on September 10.

Heres a pic of her track.



She was also mentioned in "Forrest Gump".
Just some FYI.
OK Boy...you learned how to post photos. Stop already. This is Dr. Master's Blog....not your personal one.
Aaron will delete it later anyway.
And would you please call me by my name, it's Michael but you can call me Mike.
I'm just going to ignore you have fun.
The Puerto Rico disturbance seems to be fizzling, great news for them!
I wonder if Masters is going to do a Winter Blog this year?
This is his blog. He can do whatever he chooses. You can do what you choose on your own blog.
Wishcasterboy...are you at it again? and you was doing so good too...whats the problem?
Do you want to talk to me on my blog Rand?
At this moment there are no Invests in the Atlantic Basin. Suspect areas for sure....nothing solid.
No other blog talk...this is Dr. Master's blog and I respect him.
Auburn I have done nothing wrong.
I do as well but I don't know him personally.
There is know problem as far as I can see.
Yes, many say it is over. This season ends on the last day of November. Here is the potential still:




I will tell you that small area in the NE Caribbean, off the south coast of Cuba has the heat content to support a major hurricane year round.
Probably the NW Carib....get lost!
See he did it again!
hey Wishcasterboy...will you post something on my blog?
Sure what would you like?
just check it out
2006=The year of the fizzle outs. I counted 17 fizzle outs this year. Some looked like they were gonna be cat 4s.
No, they must have been at least Cat 5's!
Here's today's Tropical Surface Chart:




Naughty little 1008mb low over Venezuela.
Naughty Low center now moving into the Carib. But the season is over.
If you can read this stuff...it is interesting.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER IS CONTINUING IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO
A SLOW MOVING PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER TROUGH. A 1007 MB LOW IS
ANALYZED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 16N74W 14N79W. DESPITE THE RATHER LOW SFC
PRESSURES...THE LOW MENTIONED IS VERY BROAD AND POORLY
STRUCTURED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN ITS VICINITY. MOST OF
THE MORE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL IS OCCURRING FARTHER E ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MOIST SWLY FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
DRAWING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE ACROSS THE WINDWARD...LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING NWD OFF THE NRN S
AMERICA COAST FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 63W-68W. GFS SHOWS THIS
MOISTURE SLOWLY THINNING OUT AND DRIFTING W OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES W AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. THE WRN CARIBBEAN REMAINS QUIET WITH VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT BEING ADVECTED IN THE REGION FROM AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE
TO THE N. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC TROUGH. EASTERLY TRADES WILL
LIKELY RESUME LATE SAT/EARLY SUN.
Well that was awkward but not pointless. Now back to the weather! Has the intertropical convergence zone ever moved farther north inducing higher hurricane activity in earlier seasons?
LMYFAO!
So, Mr. Wish expert...just how far can the ITCZ travel in either direction?
Not sure I just herd it somewhere, I was wondering if you knew something about this theory?
Mr. Wish, I like that one!
There is no theory involved. It either moves where you think it does or it does not. Again....just how far north and south of the Equator can the ITCZ move?
I believe from the eqautor to the 8th degree.
Did you mean during seasons?
I know that Pacific Typhoons can develope much farther south then Atlantic Hurricanes do.
I mean right this second!
Do you have any idea of the position of the ITCZ?
I work the Atlantic Basin exclusively....tell me.
13 degrees
Wrong! Try another number...but they'll all be wrong also!
Read an NHC Discussion sometime to find out. How stupid do you choose to appear here this morning?
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 6N32W 8N40W 9N54W 9N62W. THE
ERN PORTION OF THE AXIS HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF 18W FROM 6N-12N. SCATTERED
MODERATE IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-26W.
ISOLATED MODERATE IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 30W-35W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE IS ALONG THE N COAST OF S AMERICA DRIFTING NWD FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 63W-68W.
Its gotta be 7 degrees.
I don't write it...I just report it!
Hey!, I was close.
Go build some tunnels with Cyclone.
Whats with those tunnels.
That was from the NHC.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 21 2006
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 6N32W 8N40W 9N54W 9N62W. THE
ERN PORTION OF THE AXIS HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF 18W FROM 6N-12N. SCATTERED
MODERATE IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-26W.
ISOLATED MODERATE IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 30W-35W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE IS ALONG THE N COAST OF S AMERICA DRIFTING NWD FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 63W-68W.

Duhhh...I think so.
Wish finally has his wish. Right at the top of Admin's list!
Naughty low pressure blob:




But I'm chasing blobs in the Carib again.....after all... the season is over....sigh.
East Carib and any Tropical weather is being discussed in my blog y'all.
When it comes to atlantic tropical weather I feel like I am in groundhog day. Looks like it has looked for almost two wks. Going fishing this late afternoon and tonight. Got to catch a big snook. Yea right.
Your Snook are probably moving out of the way today.
It is hard to catch the best bait for one. Croakers. Two hopefully the seas wont be too bad. Three the cops patrolling the port are very nasty (there is a terrorist around every corner) (my personal opinion Bush has gone crazy cant handle saying or believing I f----d up) Three there probally will be a ton of boats. Four those damn fish are very finicky up here. If you do get one to bite they will try as hard as they can to break you off. Five you cant drink beer DUI. Fifth I take the fifth you got to clean the boat. Have a nice day. Another groundhog day.
Tropical weather is obviously not being discussed on this blog.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST SAT OCT 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW LEVELS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER
HISPANIOLA AS INDICATED IN QUICKSCAT DATA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALSO MOVED WEST OVER HISPANIOLA AS INDICATED IN THE LATEST 200MB
STREAMLINE/WINDS ANALYSIS. HOWEVER...THE LOCAL AIRMASS CONTINUES
VERY SATURATED. A WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST AGAIN
TODAY ALLOWING EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TO MOVE SLOWLY AND
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...NORTHERN SLOPES AND VALLEYS OF PUERTO RICO.
THE SATURATED AND MOIST STREAM WILL ALSO FLOW ACROSS
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TRANSPORTING SHOWERS
ACROSS THESE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY FOR MOST OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Hey Storm....you want to talk Dogs, Baseball, Halloween....or weather?
You can't talk weather on this blog. I'm on my blog now.
come on over.
NEW STORM in the east Pacific!!!
TD17


every time you tink 90L is history, it makes a comeback! LOL

hope everybody has a good weekend, and hope your team wins! :)
Hmmm... a new tropical storm developed in the East Pacific overnight:



This is the twenty-first tropical cyclone in the Central and East Pacific...
No..thats called SPAM
JUSTCOASTING - You have to clear it with the admins before you can do so (this is why advertising WUBAwear is not spam; not to mention that it is related to this site); otherwise, if you try to advertise something, it will be removed in a short time.
..I was Working in the Blog..Late last night..Link
I think this season really points out the lack of knowledge we have in hurricanes and their understanding of what makes them happen. We had prewarnings of a very turbulent season (comparable to last year). However, the season was one of the quiestest I can remember in recent years. Granted, there is still a little more of the season to go, but we are definately past the hump and no forecasts have predictions of anything major occuring.

So, how reliable is our seasonal outlooks we get? Obviously, not that reliable, and it leads one to believe that all they do is insight fear into ppl when in all actuality, they are just a shot in the dark. I believe seasonal outlooks should either have a big fat warning included with them **WARNING! WE HAVE NO IDEA IF THIS IS ACURATE OR NOT!!**, or we need to drop them altogether.

A season outlook looks about as good as a tournment outlook for a poker player. In all actuality, they have no clue if they will win or not until after it is all said and done.
Thats an incorrect assesment Cyclone..The Heat Potential was no greater Last Year..In the GOM..than this...one.It was the Lack of Waves making it across due to the Shear..and not due to lower GOM SSTS...
LOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SSTs DO NOT affect the number of storms!!!! Only the maximum potential intensity!!! SSTs are currently 1-2 degrees C above average! If SSTs determined the number of storms, then how come we are below average?

SST anomaly map; notice the yellows in the Atlantic:



More significantly, notice the reds in the east Pacific along the equator.
And to Lump all forcasters & mets into a "They" column..is completely absurb...and without much thought
Thanks Michael..right on time as per usual.You very perceptive Guy.
And I will save this page...just to prove some..arent interested in the Truth..or facts.They just crave dissent & controversy
And to Lump all forcasters & mets into a "They" column..is completely absurb...and without much thought

Indeed.
ACE index of past hurricane seasons; the green line is the average:



ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) is a better way to show activity than just the number or strength of storms, as it takes into account the number, intensity and the duration of storms. Notice that 1997 and 2002 are the only below average years since 1995; they (like this year) were El Nino years. The overblown forecasts did not anticipate an El Nino (nor did forecasts show an El Nino developing). This is also why they forecast below average activity in the East Pacific, which has been anything but below average (again, due to the unforecast El Nino). By the way, to compare the Pacific to the Atlantic: the ACE index of Ioke alone (over 83, including its WPAC part) is higher than the entire Atlantic season (about 76) so far!
Cyclone..this is what you need to consider first.THe Cyclones around the Planet..are not Bugs or Evil doers to be squashed by tunnels..or Nukes ..or any Man-made controllong factors.The cyclones transport Heat & moisture up to the Higer Lattitudes and keep the Global Temps & Moistues flows in Balance.They are PART..of..but not the rulers of the Atmosphere.They are but one of the mechanics that star in the Process.To stop them in any form..would throw the whole Balance out of Wack..like ripping a Thermostat off a running boiler.We tire of the Tunnels...badly.So please..In the future..Ask others to come to your site..By titling your Entry..TUNNELS..permamently ...Thanks.
post 300 lol
My TunneLinkl for You...
Take a trip ahead 5 million years..Come back..Lemme know how it worked out!..LOL
The 10day GFSx..TuLinknnel Data not gridded.
You can make an interesting observation from the above chart: 2005 (the rightmost column) actually has a lower ACE index than 1995 or 1950. Why? Because many of the storms were relatively short-lived, even if some were powerful; in fact, ten of the storms last year had a lower ACE than the lowest ACE storm so far this year (Debby; 2.14):

1.66 Vince
1.52 Cindy
1.33 Gamma
0.810 Tammy
0.650 Alpha
0.528 Gert
0.448 Jose
0.368 Bret
0.245 Lee
0.000 Unnamed*

*Subtropical storms do not count towards ACE
Season was Average at best,by the numbers ..Cyclone.
Plus..we have Thousand of Structures in the GOM..they call um Oil Rigs..and if you took.. 1 million BTUs of 32degreeF air from each one and Pumped this cold air upward ,24hrs a day..during an approaching Hurricane..they wouldnt drop the Heat potential..but 1degree..consider the forces your dealing with.Its like comparing the Atlantic to the Pacific..in activity..The Pacific is 3 times the breeding grounds of the Atlantic.
To see the mechanics well ..or better.Consider watching a 5 year..or 1 year Global Mosaic or Full globe Water Vapor Loops..they available.Then sit back for 2 hours and observe the flows and cycles that are more akin to a rytymn or Breathing if you will.Youll see the Globe differently..Trust me.
ACE chart with this year added on:

East coast has been hit for millions of years.I doubt anything a man can do..will change that.
Pat....grab your hand sledge and just start banging it on your head. You'll pass out quick and won't have to think about tunnels.
Believe me....you're better off in the long run.
Go Tropical Storm Paul. Make that eastern Pacific season look strong compaired to the Alantic.

Also it was 91 yesterday where I live in So Cal and heat is expected for the rest of the week and into next weekend (not very El Nino like shakes fist

I remember all other El Ninos the rain strated early October. Yet it has not rained here in almost 90 days. I can tell its not going to be a strong El Nino if it keeps this up.
What Tunnels?..and how did this Mall get in my FEMA trailer?...Darn Ive got a Headache!
..Aint it Spring?
lightning10 - One thing to remember is that El Nino developed at a very unusual time; El Nino usually starts to develop in the spring and reaches its peak in the winter; this year's El Nino developed in the fall (however, I think it started developing in the spring, considering the effects so far and this). Dr. Masters blames it on global warming (in one of his blogs in September)...
Do not click on this image if you open the link....Ill be watching..Link
What the hell happened to the WU web site earlier??

I was getting domain errors as if the domain no longer existed.

I almost shot myself! Just kidding:-)
..My feeling when I regress to bad times too..Link
You would have been better off Nash...LOL!
I forgot the El Nino started late. Will this mean that we will get a storng but later start in the rainy season down here in the southwest?

I remember when we had a record breaking 40 some inches of rain back in the winter 2004/2005 season there was slightly warmer then average temps in the ocean and there where 2 storms in October then very dry and warm November then after that it was dry tell the day after christmas. Then after that we went with someting like 14 days of rain.
cyclonebuster, where do you live? The NWS here mentions the S word:
Tonight...surface low to continue strengthening and lift NE to near Ord by
06z...then to southwestern Michigan by 12z. Heaviest precipitation to shift to eastern sections
of County Warning Area this evening...then taper off after 06z. Some concern about a
few snow flakes that could be mixed in near the end
...but would be
so brief...not Worth mentioning at this time. Will see low 30s north to
upper 30s S. Could be a lot colder if clouds cleared out...but
clouds to remain long enough to keep temperatures from bottoming out.
From Dr. Master's El Nino blog:
El Nio and climate change
A trend to El Nio at this time of year is unusual; May or June are the typical months that El Nio starts to develop. While the Climate Prediction Center expects that this will be a weak El Nio, the unusual timing of this event puts us in relatively uncharted territory. Since 1950, only one El Nio has started in the Fall, the El Nio of 1968. This event was an average El Nio, with a peak SST warming in the East Pacific of 1.0 C. For comparison, the warming was 2.3-2.5 C in the record El Nio events of 1997-98 and 1982-83. The unusual timing of the 2006 El Nio event comes on the heels of the unusual timing of the La Nia event that ended in May. The 2006 La Nia started very late--no La Nia of similar magnitude had ever formed in the middle of winter, as this one did. One may legitimately ask if these events might be linked to human-caused climate change. I am concerned that this might be the case, but we don't have a long enough record of historical El Nio events to know. Up until 1975, La Nia events and El Nio events used to alternate fairly regularly with a period of 2-7 years. Between 1950 and 1976 there were seven El Nio events and seven La Nia events. Since 1976, El Nio events have been approximately twice as frequent as La Nia events, with ten El Nio events and only six La Nias. Some researchers have speculated that this is due to the effects of global warming causing a new "resonance" in the climate system. If so, this is one way in which global warming may end up causing a decrease in Atlantic hurricane activity over the coming decades, since the increased wind shear over the Atlantic during El Nio events greatly reduces the number and intensity of these storms.

Perhaps it would be good to look at what happened in 1968, as that may be the best analog year. However, El Nino conditions really started developing around May, according to the graph of the Nino indicies in my previous post. The last part of the above is also interesting.