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Heavy Rains Ahead for Gulf and Mid-Atlantic; Niala, Dujuan Prowl the Pacific

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:17 PM GMT on September 25, 2015

A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America, and will move northwest across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the next few days. By Sunday night or Monday morning, this activity will push into the Gulf of Mexico, where development into a tropical or subtropical depression could occur. However, an upper-level trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of Mexico next week will likely bring high wind shear to the Gulf, limiting the potential for any system in the Gulf to strengthen, and our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis are showing little development of this system once it reaches the Gulf. The system will get pulled northwards to affect the U.S. coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 5". In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively.

Little change to Ida
There is not much new to say about Tropical Depression Ida, which is wandering slowly over the Central Atlantic, well away from any land areas. Satellite images on Friday morning showed Ida's center of circulation was fully exposed to view by high wind shear, and all of Ida's heavy thunderstorms were limited to the east side of the center. Ida will continue to move slowly in a region of weak steering currents for the next five days, and it is possible that high wind shear will destroy the storm by early next week, as suggested by Friday morning runs of the GFS model.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Niala.

Tropical Storm Niala forms near Hawaii
Yet another tropical storm has formed in the Central Pacific near Hawaii, where Tropical Storm Niala was named on Friday morning. Niala was headed northwest at 6 mph towards Hawaii at 11 am EDT Friday, and is expected to take a more westerly path over the weekend, passing about 200 miles south of the Big Island on Saturday afternoon. With tropical storm-force winds expected to extend out up to 90 mph from the center at that time, a Tropical Storm Watch may be hoisted for The Big Island on Friday evening. The 11 am EDT Wind Probability Forecast gave a 21% for South Point on the Big Island to receive tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph from Niala. The bigger threat from the storm will be heavy rain, which could bring dangerous flash floods to the Big Island on Saturday.

Niala is the record 7th named storm to form in 2015 in the North Central Pacific (between 140°W and the Date Line.) According to wunderblogger Dr. Phil Klotzbach, prior to 2015, the previous record for named storms in the North Central Pacific for an entire season was four, set in 1982. The other named storms that formed in the North Central Pacific in 2015 were Malia, Halola, Ela, Iune, Kilo and Loke. This year's record activity has been due to unusually low wind shear and record-warm ocean temperatures caused by the strong El Niño event underway.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Dujuan as seen from NASA's Terra satellite on Friday, September 25, 2015 at 02:15 UTC. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Dujuan a threat to Japan, China, and Taiwan
Typhoon Dujuan, a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds located about 510 miles south-southeast of Okinawa in Japan's Ryukyu Islands at 8 am EDT Friday, is steadily intensifying as it heads northwest at 9 mph towards China. Wind shear is in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are a very warm 30°C (86°F), conditions which favor intensification. Satellite loops on Friday morning showed a large, well-organized storm with a 28-mile wide eye and a strong upper-level outflow channel to the south. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) projects that Dujuan will intensify to Category 4 strength by Sunday, and the storm is expected to pass between Okinawa and Miyakojimi island in Japan's Ryukyu Islands near 00 UTC Monday. However, the long-range forecast of where Dujuan might make final landfall is much lower confidence than usual, given a complex upper-level steering pattern the storm is in. The 00Z Friday run of the European model showed a path very close to Taiwan and into mainland China, while the 00Z and 06Z Friday runs of the GFS model had Dujaun missing China entirely, and instead curving to the north and affecting Japan.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Invest 93E (left side of image) and 92E (right side of image, close to the coast of Mexico/Central America.)

Tropical disturbances 92E and 93E a heavy rain threat to Mexico and Central America
Our three top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predict that an area of disturbed weather about 300 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico (Invest 93E) will develop into a tropical depression on Sunday or Monday. This system is expected to move northwards and be very near the coast close to Acapulco on Monday through Thursday, potentially bringing an extended period of dangerous flooding rains. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 30% and 80%, respectively.

Another area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific along the coast near the Mexico/Guatemala border (Invest 92E) is drifting slowly to the northwest, and will bring heavy rains to El Salvador, southern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico over the next few days. None of our reliable models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis develop 92E into a tropical depression. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 20%.

Apparent tornado near Charleston; heavy rain, coastal flooding on tap for mid-Atlantic
Coastal flooding and heavy rains will be a concern throughout the upcoming weekend over parts of the mid-Atlantic coast, as a long fetch of strong wind gets funneled between high pressure building over the Northeast and a persistent zone of low pressure hugging the Southeast coast. A weak upper-level low drifting across Georgia on Friday will provide support for occasional strong thunderstorms, especially near the coast. One intense cell tracking north-northwest near Charleston, SC, apparently spawned a long-lived tornado early Friday that struck the communities of Johns Island and West Ashley, just a few miles southwest of Charleston. Numerous trees are down, and at least a dozen homes appear to have been damaged, according to the Associated Press. The National Weather Service in Charleston is planning a damage survey for Friday. In two METAR reports, the NWS office indicated a lightning-illuminated tornado just southwest of the office between 12:59 and 1:37 a.m. EDT Friday morning. During the preceding half hour, a significant debris signature was apparent on dual-polarization NWS/NEXRAD radar, as posted in @USTornadoes. The NOAA Storm Prediction Center was projecting a marginal risk of severe weather across far eastern North Carolina on Friday, with a small chance of a brief tornado.


Figure 4. Radar imagery from the NWS NEXRAD radar near Charleston, SC, at 0450 GMT (12:50 am EDT) on Friday, September 25, 2015. A diffuse hook echo is evident in the precipitation signature (left), in the same location as a strong contrast in inbound and outbound winds, shown by closely packed green and red echoes (right). These radar indications of a possible tornado are consistent with reports of tornado damage early Friday morning from just southwest of Charleston. Image credit: NWS/Charleston.


Figure 5. Predicted 72-hour rainfall amounts from 1200 GMT (8:00 am EDT) Friday, September 25, through Monday, September 28. Image credit: NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

This weekend’s multiday spell of wet weather should bring some welcome relief from gradually intensifying drought conditions across parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. However, it will also torpedo weekend recreation for thousands of people. Given the dismal forecast, organizers of the 42nd annual Neptune Festival in Virginia Beach, VA, have cancelled many of this weekend’s events, with other activities moved indoors.

Persistent easterly winds, perhaps as strong as 30-40 mph by Saturday evening into Sunday (see Figure 6 below), will lead to strong rip currents and mostly minor but persistent coastal flooding from New Jersey to the Carolinas. The approaching full moon (see below) will add to the problem by boosting peak tidal levels. Water could be 2 to 3 feet above normal in spots, and 6’ – 9’ surf will be widespread. This prolonged event could produce a substantial amount of beach erosion, especially along the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The islands have long struggled against erosion events that scrub sand from heavily touristed beaches, and long-term sea level rise is only adding to the problem. Barrier islands are naturally fluid structures--they build sand on one side as it disappears on the other--so any effort to preserve specific structures and beaches along barrier islands can be a never-ending battle. Structures such as groins, walls that extend perpendicular to the coast, can help retain sand upstream of prevailing longshore flow, but they typically exacerbate erosion downstream. in 2011, North Carolina ended a decades-long ban on terminal groins, which are placed next to inlets. At least four terminal groins are now being installed or planned along the Outer Banks.


Figure 7. Wundermap depiction of forecast surface winds at 0000 GMT Sunday (8:00 pm EDT Saturday) shows a long fetch of sustained 30-40 mph winds pushing into the mid-Atlantic coast.


September heat still at record pace in Colorado, NYC, New England
It may be autumn, but the atmosphere hasn’t gotten the memo across large parts of the lower 48 U.S. states. The rest of this month will skew warm and dry as a sprawling upper-level ridge predominates, which raises the odds of a record-warm September for the nation as a whole and for a number of U.S. cities. The table below has been updated from a post last week; it shows how warm the remainder of the month will need to be in various cities in order to set a September record. If the NWS forecasts from Thursday are reasonably correct, then much of New England--including Portland, Maine, and Burlington, Vermont--will end up with a record-warm September. New York City’s Central Park also has a good shot. Some intrusions of cool air into the Midwest have tamped down the odds of record monthly warmth in places like St. Louis and Minneapolis. However, the entire Front Range of the Rockies from Pueblo, Colorado, to Cheyenne, Wyoming, is right on track for its warmest September in records dating back more than a century.




Moon mania! Sunday night to bring a rare combo of supermoon and total lunar eclipse
Between 10:11 and 11:23 pm EDT on Sunday night, an unusually large “supermoon” will be completely eclipsed by Earth’s shadow, leading to a rare treat for astronomical buffs. Partial or total eclipses occur only when the Sun, Earth and moon are lined up, so by definition they only occur when the moon is full. Because the moon’s orbit around Earth is not perfectly symmetric, the moon is sometimes closer to us than at other times. Supermoons can appear as much as 14% larger in diameter than usual. There are typically two to five partial or total lunar eclipses per year, but getting a total lunar eclipse (also called a “blood moon,” referring to the common reddish hue) during a supermoon is a once-in-several-decades event. According to space.com, the last one was in 1982 and the next one won’t occur until 2033. Sunday night will also mark the fourth consecutive total eclipse without any partial eclipses, an unusual event called a tetrad.


Figure 8. The total lunar eclipse of October 8, 2014, as photographed in California by Alfredo Garcia, Jr. Image credit: Wikimedia Commons/Tomruen.


Sunday’s lunar eclipse is timed especially well for the Americas, with totality falling between 7 pm and midnight across the contiguous U.S. Evening skies will be fair or clear over much of the nation, apart from the stubborn Southeast storm and another cloud-bearing system over the north central states. Space.com is offering “full ‘blood moon’ coverage” this weekend. Have a great one!

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson


Hurricane Tornado Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson
Thanks for the heads up on the "Super Moon"
Niala has to be stronger than 35 knots.  That is best looking 35 knot cyclone I have ever seen. 
Considering how warm the Great Lakes STTs are this year, Michigan may see a lot of lake effect down the road.

It could also intensify aproaching extratropical storms. Get your salt and shovels ready.


thanks doc wait watch and see
Keeping an eye on the models and GOM.
5 day QPF....

thanks doks!
Thank you..Gulf system should be fun to watch...Providing there are no surprises.
.
11. IKE
I see a spin on visible just east of Belize.
Seems like the models are in pretty good agreement that a weak low will move into the Gulf Coast region the the first part of next week.
A little clarification is needed. The lunar eclipses in a tetrad occur approximately every six months. So the complete event does take more than a year. The first lunar eclipse in this tetrad occurred on April 15, 2014.
Quoting 6. IKE:

5 day QPF....




Nothing?! I get NOTHING?!
Quoting 11. IKE:

I see a spin on visible just east of Belize.
Something is spinning. I agree. Maybe a chance increase, we'll see.
I see a spin on visible just east of Belize to lets buy some food soon
Quoting 6. IKE:

5 day QPF....




Where's the doom for Central Florida?
Quoting 3. FunnelVortex:

Considering how warm the Great Lakes STTs are this year, Michigan may see a lot of lake effect down the road.

It could also intensify aproaching extratropical storms. Get your salt and shovels ready.





Great Lakes have been warmer other years but it is remarkable that Lake Superior is abnormally warm this year after two very cold winters and late ice-outs.

When forecasting for NW PA in 1979-81 at the PSU Campus Weather Service I used to breath a sigh of relief when Lake Erie froze over and heat and moisture fluxes were reduced by an order of magnitude and the lake effect potential (hard to forecast) was much reduced. Lake Erie cools and freezes quickly because it's shallow. Lake Ontario is much deeper and the lake effect season for it is much longer, often all winter.

Contrary to grossly cynical legend, the effect of occasional wildfires on the surface of Lake Erie in those days was not a significant term in heating over the lake surface. :-)

where is invest 92E going??
Thanks for the Update: almost as bad for parts of the Eastern Seaboard as a tropical storm....................

Persistent easterly winds, perhaps as strong as 30-40 mph by Saturday evening into Sunday (see Figure 6 below), will lead to strong rip currents and mostly minor but persistent coastal flooding from New Jersey to the Carolinas. The approaching full moon (see below) will add to the problem by boosting peak tidal levels. Water could be 2 to 3 feet above normal in spots, and 6' - 9' surf will be widespread. This prolonged event could produce a substantial amount of beach erosion, especially along the Outer Banks of North Carolina.



Tropical Storm Niala


Last Updated: 9/25/2015, 11:00:00 AM (Eastern Daylight Time)

Location: 15.1N 150.1WMovement: NW at 6 mphWind: 40 MPHPressure: 1002 MB
Quoting 14. MrNatural:

A little clarification is needed. The lunar eclipses in a tetrad occur approximately every six months. So the complete event does take more than a year. The first lunar eclipse in this tetrad occurred on April 15, 2014.


Fixed! Thanks for the catch, Mr. N.

--Bob
Quoting 23. BobHenson:



Fixed! Thanks for the catch, Mr. N.

--Bob
Good afternoon Dr. Bob Henson. Are there any segments of the Wunderground Show on wunderground yet?
Quoting 20. hurricanes2018:

where is invest 92E going??
NE.
Quoting 22. hurricanes2018:



Tropical Storm Niala


Last Updated: 9/25/2015, 11:00:00 AM (Eastern Daylight Time)

Location: 15.1N 150.1WMovement: NW at 6 mphWind: 40 MPHPressure: 1002 MB
Best looking 40 mph TS Ive ever seen BEAUTIFUL structure :)
TROPICAL STORM NIALA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP062015
500 AM HST FRI SEP 25 2015

A 0745Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF 35 KT SURFACE WINDS IN
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST QUADRANTS OF SIX-C. INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A MUCH BETTER DEFINED TROPICAL SYSTEM THAN WE WERE
SEEING THURSDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT...THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES
FROM JTWC...SAB AND PHFO WERE UNANIMOUS WITH CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 2.5/35 KT. THE 1330Z ADT ESTIMATE PROVIDED BY UW-CIMSS
IS 2.3/33 KT. THEREFORE...WE HAVE UPGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIX-C TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM. THE DESIGNATED NAME FOR THIS SYSTEM
IS NIALA...PRONOUNCED NEE-AH-LA.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF TROPICAL STORM NIALA IS 320/6 KT. THE NEWLY
FORMED TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED BETWEEN 12 AND 36 HOURS.
A LARGE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD. AN ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW ALOFT. THIS TROUGH ALOFT WILL LIKELY MOVE
SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL PRODUCE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF NIALA.
THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND DECOUPLE THE SYSTEM BEYOND
DAY 3. AS A RESULT...THE WEAKENED SHALLOW CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT
REMAINS AFTER THE SYSTEM IS SHEARED WILL LIKELY BE TRANSPORTED WESTWARD
BY THE LOWER LEVEL STEERING FLOW. THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS
REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCES BEING THE FORWARD SPEED DURING DAYS 3 TO 5 AFTER THIS
DECOUPLING OCCURS. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS WITH SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO NUDGE THE TRACK CLOSER TO THE
TVCN AND GFEX CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

TROPICAL STORM NIALA IS PASSING OVER VERY WARM WATERS OF ABOUT 29C
BASED ON THE LATEST SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...
THE CIRA ANALYSIS OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOWS THESE VALUES
INCREASING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE FOR CURRENT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF NIALA FROM UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS SUGGEST THAT
THERE IS SHEAR OF 13 TO 17 KT FROM THE WEST. THE SHEAR MAGNITUDE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY STARTING ON DAY 2...WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO DECOUPLE THE SYSTEM. UNTIL THAT OCCURS...IT
APPEARS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST BEYOND 48
HOURS...WITH NIALA WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND POSSIBLY
A REMNANT LOW BY DAYS 4 AND 5. NOTE THAT THE WIND RADII WERE
ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 0745Z ASCAT PASS. THESE LARGER WIND RADII
HAVE CAUSED THE MOST RECENT TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SPEED
PROBABILITIES TO INCREASE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN END OF THE BIG
ISLAND. AS A RESULT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 15.1N 150.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 15.9N 151.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 16.7N 152.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 17.0N 153.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 17.0N 155.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 17.0N 157.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 17.0N 158.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 16.5N 159.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
Quoting 3. FunnelVortex:

Considering how warm the Great Lakes STTs are this year, Michigan may see a lot of lake effect down the road.

It could also intensify aproaching extratropical storms. Get your salt and shovels ready.





You know, I have always been fascinated by the 1900 Galveston 'cane. It went from a Cat 4, to, upon landfall a tropical depression, and then RE-intensified back to a Cat 1 'cane as it crossed the upper midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast North America.

The CPAC's season has been fascinating, seven named systems is incredible.

Niala looks like it could strengthen more than forecast before shear ramps up. Nicely organized system right now.
Very nice comprehensive blog article gentlemen. Made for the perfect lunch time reading! Really appreciate the work that goes into these. Thank You!
Quoting 24. Tornado6042008X:

Good afternoon Dr. Bob Henson. Are there any segments of the Wunderground Show on wunderground yet?


Indeed there are! You can catch a number of clips from the show at the WUTV website. Selected clips usually appear 1-2 days after an episode airs.

By the way, as nice as it is to be called "Dr.", I'm afraid I don't have a doctorate degree like Dr. Masters does (only a master's). I don't mind "doc" as an informal nickname, as long as it's clear I'm not trying to misrepresent my credentials! :-)

--Bob
Quoting 29. indianrivguy:



You know, I have always been fascinated by the 1900 Galveston 'cane. It went from a Cat 4, to, upon landfall a tropical depression, and then RE-intensified back to a Cat 1 'cane as it crossed the upper midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast North America.


1900 Galveston Hurricane was a catastrophe of epic proportions. Not even the footage can convey how bad it really was..... WIKI has a great read on the impact and aftermath.......Link

More people were killed in this single storm than the total of those killed in all the tropical cyclones that have struck the United States since. This count is greater than 300 cyclones, as of 2009. The Galveston Hurricane of 1900 remains the deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history
Quoting 29. indianrivguy:



You know, I have always been fascinated by the 1900 Galveston 'cane. It went from a Cat 4, to, upon landfall a tropical depression, and then RE-intensified back to a Cat 1 'cane as it crossed the upper midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast North America.




I’m reading a book about the Galveston Hurricane now. It’s fascinating in general but the most striking thing about it is how far we’ve come meteorology-wise in the last 115 years. They had nothing back then except studying the ocean currents and color of the sky as a possible precursor to an approaching cyclone. In the book, there are dramatic accounts of people getting inundated with storm surge on the 2nd floor of their home, and homes falling apart at the seams due to the pressure of the flood waters. Very interesting, but sad stuff.
Quoting 34. tampabaymatt:



I’m reading a book about the Galveston Hurricane now. It’s fascinating in general but the most striking thing about it is how far we’ve come meteorology-wise in the last 115 years. They had nothing back then except studying the ocean currents and color of the sky as a possible precursor to an approaching cyclone. In the book, there are dramatic accounts of people getting inundated with storm surge on the 2nd floor of their home, and homes falling apart at the seams due to the pressure of the flood waters. Very interesting, but sad stuff.


They had ship reports, and reports from Cuba.
I was in Galveston this summer and saw the movie there about the 1900 Hurricane.
Pics show that effectively the buildings were built at beach level and even a high tide would reach the buildings.
The houses in the poorer area's that were destroyed formed a barrier of wood that partly stopped the expensive houses from being flooded, they were built on the slightly higher ground anyways.
People had to be forced at gunpoint to move the dead bodies.
They buried a few hundred at sea, but a few days later the tide brought most of them back inland, so they started cremating the bodies instead, there was plenty of fire wood available.
They subsequently raised the island and built the famous sea wall, which has protected the Island since.
36. IKE
Latest UKMET 12z has a Louisiana landfall....for a GOM low.
Quoting 35. MahFL:



They had ship reports, and reports from Cuba.
I was in Galveston this summer and saw the movie there about the 1900 Hurricane.
Pics show that effectively the buildings were built at beach level and even a high tide would reach the buildings.
The houses in the poorer area's that were destroyed formed a barrier of wood that partly stopped the expensive houses from being flooded, they were built on the slightly higher ground anyways.
People had to be forced at gunpoint to move the dead bodies.
They buried a few hundred at sea, but a few days later the tide brought most of them back inland, so they started cremating the bodies instead, there was plenty of fire wood available.
They subsequently raised the island and built the famous sea wall, which has protected the Island since.


Yeah, but the book mentions that the US government was trying to suppress the reports from Cuba. Even though Cuba had far surpassed the US in hurricane forecasting at that time, the communication from Cuba was routinely discounted. The US weather service had the storm going up the Atlantic coast even a day or two before it hit Galveston. They were totally blindsided.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure located just south of the coast of Guatemala
is producing showers and gusty winds over portions of southern
Guatemala and El Salvador, primarily near the coast. There has been
little change in organization today, and significant development of
this low appears unlikely due to its interaction with land while it
moves slowly northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this system will continue to produce heavy rains over
portions of El Salvador, southern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico
during the next few days. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico,
remain disorganized. This low, however, is likely to develop into a
tropical depression late this weekend or early next week while it
moves northward toward the southern coast of Mexico. Interests in
that region should monitor the progress of this disturbance during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Quoting 35. MahFL:



They had ship reports, and reports from Cuba.
I was in Galveston this summer and saw the movie there about the 1900 Hurricane.
Pics show that effectively the buildings were built at beach level and even a high tide would reach the buildings.
The houses in the poorer area's that were destroyed formed a barrier of wood that partly stopped the expensive houses from being flooded, they were built on the slightly higher ground anyways.
People had to be forced at gunpoint to move the dead bodies.
They buried a few hundred at sea, but a few days later the tide brought most of them back inland, so they started cremating the bodies instead, there was plenty of fire wood available.
They subsequently raised the island and built the famous sea wall, which has protected the Island since.
Not to mention the storm itself was massive, and quite possibly the largest tropical cyclone ever to hit the U.S.
Quoting 29. indianrivguy:



You know, I have always been fascinated by the 1900 Galveston 'cane. It went from a Cat 4, to, upon landfall a tropical depression, and then RE-intensified back to a Cat 1 'cane as it crossed the upper midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast North America.




It likely underwent extratropical transition. Probably wasn't tropical once it got up here.
I'm sure the view of the lunar eclipse on Sunday from Florida will look something like this:

Quoting 29. indianrivguy:



You know, I have always been fascinated by the 1900 Galveston 'cane. It went from a Cat 4, to, upon landfall a tropical depression, and then RE-intensified back to a Cat 1 'cane as it crossed the upper midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast North America.




If it occurred in the year 1900, there's no reason why the validity of that can't be questioned. Based on my understanding of meteorology, it was probably a baroclinic low that had pretty low air pressure and produced hurricane force gusts from a a strong pressure gradient squeeze play due to a relatively short distance from a strong high and the low.

As to exactly what happened, well, it's the year 1900, so it's anyone's educated guess. But that graphic of showing it intensifying from a t.d. over the plains to a hurricane over upstate New York and Maine just doesn't make sense at all scientifically.


Quoting 6. IKE:

5 day QPF....




Personally I don't think this is how the precip distribution will play out unless the low center moves substantially west of where it's forecast is expected. It seems the WPC wants to keep the heavy precip too close to the center when it's much more likely to be heavily lopsided to the east based on model depictions of the upper flow in both GFS and ecmwf. Seems as the the heaviest rains will be from the west panhandle and points east, but I say that assuming projection position and existence of the low is correct, lol.
Quoting 42. CybrTeddy:

I'm sure the view of the lunar eclipse on Sunday from Florida will look something like this:




Grey?


Quoting 18. Bucsboltsfan:



Where's the doom for Central Florida?


There shouldn't be any doom, although I think rainfall coverage will be better on the west coast of FL than the WPC shows assuming current model projections for the low are correct in terms of movement of the low and upper level winds.

Not saying this map will be wrong as the forecast is subject to change, and if the low moves farther west and shear is lighter, this forecast would seem more likely. But I don't agree with this forecast based on the current projection of the low.
Quoting 41. FunnelVortex:



It likely underwent extratropical transition. Probably wasn't tropical once it got up here.


Extra-tropical Transition is the most likely explanation.
Quoting 42. CybrTeddy:

I'm sure the view of the lunar eclipse on Sunday from Florida will look something like this:


Yes, I'm afraid south Alabama won't fair any better. We've had nothing but clear, hot nights for the last four months. Now that we've had calendar Autumn appear, it's hardly been above 80 with cloudy weather every day. That's fine by me, except for Sunday night, when there's really something to see besides the hordes of mosquitos attacking. Rats!
Quoting 44. Jedkins01:



Personally I don't think this is how the precip distribution will play out unless the low center moves substantially west of where it's forecast is expected. It seems the WPC wants to keep the heavy precip too close to the center when it's much more likely to be heavily lopsided to the east based on model depictions of the upper flow in both GFS and ecmwf. Seems as the the heaviest rains will be from the west panhandle and points east, but I say that assuming projection position and existence of the low is correct, lol.
I fear this low really will wander in the Gulf, far enough offshore to not give much rain to those of us inland. It should be pretty weak, and the steering currents are almost non-existent. Unless we end up with a stronger storm in the eastern Gulf, an Ida repeat is a definite possibility.
Quoting 34. tampabaymatt:



I’m reading a book about the Galveston Hurricane now. It’s fascinating in general but the most striking thing about it is how far we’ve come meteorology-wise in the last 115 years. They had nothing back then except studying the ocean currents and color of the sky as a possible precursor to an approaching cyclone. In the book, there are dramatic accounts of people getting inundated with storm surge on the 2nd floor of their home, and homes falling apart at the seams due to the pressure of the flood waters. Very interesting, but sad stuff.


Isaac's Storm? Great, great book btw. I have read it a few times.
Quoting 37. tampabaymatt:



Yeah, but the book mentions that the US government was trying to suppress the reports from Cuba. Even though Cuba had far surpassed the US in hurricane forecasting at that time, the communication from Cuba was routinely discounted. The US weather service had the storm going up the Atlantic coast even a day or two before it hit Galveston. They were totally blindsided.
It was also not long after the Spanish-American War of 1898, and a lot of the Spanish weather forecasting infrastructure collapsed when we took over. It took about 10 years to get things back to the pre-war forecasting and reporting ability.
Quoting 50. DavidHOUTX:



Isaac's Storm? Great, great book btw. I have read it a few times.



Yes, I should have noted the name of it, my mistake. Great great book.
Quoting 32. BobHenson:



Indeed there are! You can catch a number of clips from the show at the WUTV website. Selected clips usually appear 1-2 days after an episode airs.

By the way, as nice as it is to be called "Dr.", I'm afraid I don't have a doctorate degree like Dr. Masters does (only a master's). I don't mind "doc" as an informal nickname, as long as it's clear I'm not trying to misrepresent my credentials! :-)

--Bob
So, what's up, Doc? :-) So what's your guess about our Gulf low? Hard to do more than guess now since we don't have a low yet, but my own guess is weak subtropical that wanders around the Gulf for a lot longer than the current models depict. By this time next week, I suspect we'll be starting to get sick of following Joaquin around. Actually, I'd rather have it in the Gulf than another WPC/Brown Ocean event...
Windshear is dropping in Ida's vicinity, but maybe it is too broken to recover.

Quoting 45. 62901IL:



Grey?





As in they won't be able to see it due to the rain/cloud cover


The sea breeze storm season is winding down in C FL, but not over yet.
Weather Alert last night, Storm lessened before reaching us, but....

http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20150925/PC 16/150929579
Link
and

https://www.facebook.com/WCBDNews2/photos/a.16489 8866854883.41438.153915227953247/1109950989016328/ ?type=3&theater
Link

Quoting 11. IKE:

I see a spin on visible just east of Belize.
You can actually see it better with the 92E floater. I'm not sure if that's the beginnings of our low in the Gulf of Honduras or just the usual diurnal blow up of convection. Plenty of reinforcements coming in from the Pacific side though.

Quoting 54. JLPR2:

Windshear is dropping in Ida's vicinity, but maybe it is too broken to recover.




Has any storm ever come back at this point?
Dujuan has wrapped convection all the way around its ragged eye now... we'll see if it can maintain this. Like several West Pac typhoons this year, it has had to fight dry air intrusions.






no rain here in new haven, nice weather fall weather the last two days
Quoting 57. SC29483:

Weather Alert last night, Storm lessened before reaching us, but....

http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20150925/PC 16/150929579
Link
and

https://www.facebook.com/WCBDNews2/photos/a.16489 8866854883.41438.153915227953247/1109950989016328/ ?type=3&theater
Link


We had a couple of the same type tornadoes in Alabama about a month ago. Conditions from about Monday night here through about Wednesday over in your neck of the woods will be conducive to these kind of quick spin up tornadoes again. I just got through checking the weather radio, ham radio, and phone alerts, just in case. Tornadoes at two in the morning are the ones that scare me.
Quoting 59. FunnelVortex:



Has any storm ever come back at this point?
Many, and I never write them off until they are gone completely.
Quoting 59. FunnelVortex:



Has any storm ever come back at this point?
Sure, Andrew for one. It was near dissipation when it found the hurricane supply store in the Bahamas. However, this is not 1992. It has been hard enough for a well developed storm not fall apart this year, so the chances of a storm that fell apart recovering is pretty low. Remnants of Danny and Erika wandered around for what seemed like weeks, with lots of people saying the NHC shouldn't have dropped the storms, and recovery and a blast at Florida was just around the corner. I expect the same with Ida and what will be Joaquin at some point in the Gulf. Every swirl and rain cloud will be ex-Ida and ex-Joaquin, both of which will be just one update away from being reclassified. Boy, what a great season so far!
Quoting 62. sar2401:

We had a couple of the same type tornadoes in Alabama about a month ago. Conditions from about Monday night here through about Wednesday over in your neck of the woods will be conducive to these kind of quick spin up tornadoes again. I just got through checking the weather radio, ham radio, and phone alerts, just in case. Tornadoes at two in the morning are the ones that scare me.
I have seen a couple funnels here, but thats it. I pray it stays that way.
Quoting 63. hydrus:

Many, and I never write them off until they are gone completely.


Same here, it ain't iver until the fat lady sings
Quoting 60. MAweatherboy1:

Dujuan has wrapped convection all the way around its ragged eye now... we'll see if it can maintain this. Like several West Pac typhoons this year, it has had to fight dry air intrusions.




I think the issue has been there size. The smaller TC have been strongest.
Tropical Storm Niala has been rapidly intensifying over the past few hours, with the formation of an eye as seen on microwave imagery.

ASCAT will hopefully pass over the cyclone over the next hour to give us an indication of its strength. It's safe to say we're looking at higher than 35kt though (probably 50-55kt).

Quoting 70. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tropical Storm Niala has been rapidly intensifying over the past few hours, with the formation of an eye as seen on microwave imagery.

ASCAT will hopefully pass over the cyclone over the next hour to give us an indication of its strength. It's safe to say we're looking at higher than 35kt though (probably 50-55kt).


Cpac still showing the atlantic how is done and kicking his butt.
Quoting 64. LargoFl:


This is not a poke at you, Largo, since you just post the models, but for the curious types, who wonder how the Gulf low will reach 70 knots in 48 hours when there isn't even a low yet. SHF5 stands for the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Forecast (SHIFOR) intensity model out to 5 days. SHF5, and all the members of the SHIFOR model class, are straight statistical and persistence models. They have no input from current models or conditions. The SHF5 is showing what the worst case was for all the storms that became classified near where this low, which doesn't actually exist yet, is forecast by the models. It will always show a 70 knot storm in the Gulf, just because 70 knot storms have been so common in the Gulf. Except for a glance to see what the worst case scenario might be under perfect conditions, it's not giving a realistic estimate of intensity.

Vorticy rapidly growing by Belize. I think low pressure is forming. Invest by tomorrow maybe.
Interesting run by the Euro..
Oh my. Does this seem to be inching toward....FLORIDA PENINSULA??

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots /northeastpacific/2015/ep922015/track_early/aep92_ 2015092518_track_early.pngLink
Nice shot of shadow being cast by a tall thunderstorm on the left semi circle of TD Ida :

Quoting 75. K8eCane:

Oh my. Does this seem to be inching toward....FLORIDA PENINSULA??

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots /northeastpacific/2015/ep922015/track_early/aep92_ 2015092518_track_early.pngLink



Don't expect too much development
Quoting 77. FunnelVortex:



Don't expect too much development



No, seems as though upper level set up isnt ideal
Quoting 55. win1gamegiantsplease:



As in they won't be able to see it due to the rain/cloud cover
Just one more instance of how, when you bend over too far, things will go right over your head... :-)
There might be possible twin systems in the Gulf of Mexico this coming week.
Quoting 62. sar2401:

We had a couple of the same type tornadoes in Alabama about a month ago. Conditions from about Monday night here through about Wednesday over in your neck of the woods will be conducive to these kind of quick spin up tornadoes again. I just got through checking the weather radio, ham radio, and phone alerts, just in case. Tornadoes at two in the morning are the ones that scare me.


They all scare me!
Quoting 79. sar2401:

Just one more instance of how, when you bend over too far, things will go right over your head... :-)


Sometimes they go right up your alley
Speaking of strong El Nino underway:

Daniel Swain@Weather_West
True reversal of E trade winds to occur in East Pacific by end of Sept--not merely anomalous W winds.



I wonder what this wind shift forebodes for winter given its magnitude and the fact that the ocean is now significantly warmer out west than it was in 1997.
Quoting 71. Gearsts:

Cpac still showing the atlantic how is done and kicking his butt.


Perhaps it's drought but something has happened to the squirrels (rotten little tree rats! with bushy tails)
in College Park/Riverdale. No digging in my garden, no theft of my peaches, no harvesting of my acorns.. they're 95% gone. I see a few but something grim seems to have happened to the population.

I may despise pests and vermin but when they suddenly disappear or are depopulated by an order of magnitude I wonder what is going on???

Sar's post about mosquitoes (also mostly gone here because of drought) reminded me of the above train of thought. I actually have a daymare of stepping outside some evening in a hot humid rainy period when there should be tons of mosquitoes and finding them all gone and wondering again what is going on??


It's been dry here but not desert dry. There is still vegetation and sources of standing water. I don't know why the squirrels mostly gone.

The big current picture for the Western Caribbean/Gulf/Eastern E-Pac; lit up like a Christmas tree but the shear is a howlin:


Quoting 80. hotroddan:

There might be possible twin systems in the Gulf of Mexico this coming week.
Yep..The CFS has had that double storm run for a week now.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPxdcigVEAAf02h.png
Quoting 77. FunnelVortex:



Don't expect too much development
Since the BAMD goes just to the west of my house, I'm right on board with that model. Well, not completely on board, since the map shows it making landfall around Panama City on Tuesday. What I assume would be Joaquin then boards a hurricane bullet train, getting to Virginia on Wednesday. Doesn't even stop at a Waffle House for coffee and some pecan waffles, just a straight shot up the road. That puts a little doubt in my mind about the BAMD in this case. :-)
Quoting 88. FOREX:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CPxdcigVEAAf02h.png
You mean like this here graphic? Just delete the "s" in the "https" part of the address before you click OK. Works most of he time with those pesky secured sites. :-)

Quoting 85. georgevandenberghe:

Perhaps it's drought but something has happened to the squirrels (rotten little tree rats! with bushy tails)
in College Park/Riverdale. No digging in my garden, no theft of my peaches, no harvesting of my acorns.. they're 95% gone. I see a few but something grim seems to have happened to the population.

I may despise pests and vermin but when they suddenly disappear or are depopulated by an order of magnitude I wonder what is going on???

Sar's post about mosquitoes (also mostly gone here because of drought) reminded me of the above train of thought. I actually have a daymare of stepping outside some evening in a hot humid rainy period when there should be tons of mosquitoes and finding them all gone and wondering again what is going on??


It's been dry here but not desert dry. There is still vegetation and sources of standing water. I don't know why the squirrels mostly gone.




Hi George, seems like some of them made it down here? I've been seeing more squirrels around then I used to ...mosquitoes have been scarce though.
Quoting 90. sar2401:

You mean like this here graphic? Just delete the "s" in the "https" part of the address before you click OK. Works most of he time with those pesky secured sites. :-)




Warnings issued by Sunday? Doubtful
Quoting 85. georgevandenberghe:

Perhaps it's drought but something has happened to the squirrels (rotten little tree rats! with bushy tails)
in College Park/Riverdale. No digging in my garden, no theft of my peaches, no harvesting of my acorns.. they're 95% gone. I see a few but something grim seems to have happened to the population.

I may despise pests and vermin but when they suddenly disappear or are depopulated by an order of magnitude I wonder what is going on???

Sar's post about mosquitoes (also mostly gone here because of drought) reminded me of the above train of thought. I actually have a daymare of stepping outside some evening in a hot humid rainy period when there should be tons of mosquitoes and finding them all gone and wondering again what is going on??
It's been dry here but not desert dry. There is still vegetation and sources of standing water. I don't know why the squirrels mostly gone.

I was thinking the same thing the other day. The squirrels use the coax cable on two of my antennas to scamper back and forth from the mast to the house, where they jump on the roof and continue their journey. Nothing has changed with the antennas or the coax, but I've seen far few of the tree dwelling rats this year. Seriously, I really do wonder what has happened to them.
Quoting 75. K8eCane:

Oh my. Does this seem to be inching toward....FLORIDA PENINSULA??

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots /northeastpacific/2015/ep922015/track_early/aep92_ 2015092518_track_early.pngLink

yeah for myself I'm going to see what sunday's runs look like,we have time yet.
Quoting 92. FunnelVortex:



Warnings issued by Sunday? Doubtful
Looks like just a heavy rain event with some minor flooding, and some beach erosion.
Quoting 83. VibrantPlanet:

Speaking of strong El Nino underway:

Daniel Swain@Weather_West
True reversal of E trade winds to occur in East Pacific by end of Sept--not merely anomalous W winds.



I wonder what this wind shift forebodes for winter given its magnitude and the fact that the ocean is now significantly warmer out west than it was in 1997.
I wonder the same thing. The main difference between 97-98 and this occurrence is the PDO , Which is in the Negative now. Back in 1997-98 it was almost as positive as it gets..AER and others expect a lot of blocking due to Negative AO and NAO values this winter. I know on thing, it could be a very bad winter for the eastern half. EDIT...I have to correct my stating the PDO was negative. It went it to the positive in 2014.

Afternoon all. Looks like all kinds a stuff going on in the gulf. May help explain the models.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015

VALID SEP 25/1200 UTC THRU SEP 29/0000 UTC

UPPER LOW DROPPING THROUGH TX
SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: CANADIAN/NAM/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: BY DEFAULT/SEE NHC OUTLOOKS

WHILE THE GUIDANCE IS AGREEABLE ALOFT, THEIR SURFACE LOW HANDLING
IN THE GULF IS QUITE DIFFERENT. THE 12Z UKMET MERGES THIS WITH
THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND ACCELERATES AHEAD OF THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE -- USUAL BIASES FOR THE UKMET. THE 17Z
CONFERENCE CALL WITH NHC SUPPORTED A SOLUTION RESEMBLING A
COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z CANADIAN/12Z NAM/12Z ECMWF, WHICH IS
PREFERRED BY DEFAULT.


POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS
CONFIDENCE: BY DEFAULT/SEE NHC OUTLOOKS

WHILE NHC AT 18Z GAVE THE SYSTEM A 20% CHANCE OF
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/POSSIBLE
MONSOON DEPRESSION TO MOVE UP FROM CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A SHEARED SYSTEM DUE TO THE UPPER
LOW IN PROXIMITY TO ITS EAST. THE GUIDANCE THAT BEST FITS THE
NHC/WPC POINTS FROM 17Z TODAY WOULD BE THE 12Z GFS, WHICH IS
PREFERRED BY DEFAULT. SEE THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS FOR MORE ON ITS POTENTIAL AS A TROPICAL/ SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE.

The supposed Gulf low is currently tracking (per Tally NWS) right over my house in Northern Leon County/Tallahassee...........Glad that we got a new roof this past November in case these rains actually materialize.....
Clear channel all the way from Central Gulf to Florida of lower and lowering shear. In the northern Gulf the shear is going to be high, but steering currents should ride this right into the panhandle or more likely Alabama somewhere. This is one to keep an eye on. Guessing we'll have a lotta Florida folk here doing just that. And Ida, we've seen it with so many others this year. They can't beat the shear. They re-fire convection, it gets sheared generally NE, rinse and repeat a few days. Storm decouples, is but a swirl soon afterward and opens up into a wave. And in that process these systems do often drop devastating amounts of rain as happened in Dominica.
Quoting 97. hydrus:

I wonder the same thing. The main difference between 97-98 and this occurrence is the PDO , Which is in the Negative now. Back in 1997-98 it was almost as positive as it gets..AER and others expect a lot of blocking due to Negative AO and NAO values this winter. I know on thing, it could be a very bad winter for the eastern half.


Quoting 92. FunnelVortex:



Warnings issued by Sunday? Doubtful
They said "watches or warnings". A watch by Sunday is not out of the question if this low turns into Joaquin, the TD or TS. The ECMWF shows the storm making landfall early Monday morning around Apalachicola, while the GFS is about 36 hours slower. None of the models show the low as being anything stronger than a TD, and some are showing a subtropical rather than tropical cyclone. With all this uncertainty about path and intensity, I can see them issuing a watch sooner rather than later. It's also possible that this won't be anything more than another low that doesn't give me any rain. As usual, we'll just have to wait and see what happens.
We actually need the rain in the Panhandle/North Florida so a moderate rain event would actually be welcome. However, for those who have to drive I-10 anywhere from Pensacola to Tallahassee, the water drainage is pretty bad during heavy rains and it becomes hydro-plane city............Would be wise to stay off of I-10 next week if the rain does materialize and you need to commute...............Hwy 90 might be a better option if that is the case.
Quoting 104. weathermanwannabe:

We actually need the rain in the Panhandle/North Florida so a moderate rain event would actually be welcome. However, for those who have to drive I-10 anywhere from Pensacola to Tallahassee, the water drainage is pretty bad during heavy rains and it becomes hydro-plane city............Would be wise to stay off of I-10 next week if the rain does materialize and you need to commute...............Hwy 90 might be a better option if that is the case.


Sure hope we get some rain, 3 weeks tomorrow since I've had rain at my house. A good 2-3 day soaking of 2-4 inches of rain would be great!
This'll be an usual system coming in from the Eastern Pacific. I hope it gets some rain to the the panhandle of Florida and Alabama and Mississippi, all three areas need it. So something in between a poof of a storm and a moderate tropical storm, I feel like will do the trick.
Quoting 101. DeepSeaRising:

Clear channel all the way from Central Gulf to Florida of lower and lowering shear. In the northern Gulf the shear is going to be high, but steering currents should ride this right into the panhandle or more likely Alabama somewhere. This is one to keep an eye on. Guessing we'll have a lotta Florida folk here doing just that. And Ida, we've seen it with so many others this year. They can't beat the shear. They re-fire convection, it gets sheared generally NE, rinse and repeat a few days. Storm decouples, is but a swirl soon afterward and opens up into a wave. And in that process these systems do often drop devastating amounts of rain as happened in Dominica.
Yes, the usual crowd (not the regulars here) that always shows up when there's any kind of low near Florida will be here in a heartbeat. They will be giving us their ideas why every twist and turn of the models just means more doom for Florida, and why doesn't the NHC realize, as they do, the immediate peril this low is placing everyone in Florida in, and why don't these idiots at the NHC start issuing special warnings for the whole state so everyone can get into the beer and chips panic a once, not to mention more plywood and evacuations.

Yes indeed, I'm really looking forward to the next five days or so....
Quoting 102. Gearsts:


My mistake..I thought PDO was still negative. Those graphs can be misleading.
Quoting 107. sar2401:

Yes, the usual crowd (not the regulars here) that always shows up when there's any kind of low near Florida will be here in a heartbeat. They will be giving us their ideas why every twist and turn of the models just means more doom for Florida, and why doesn't the NHC realize, as they do, the immediate peril this low is placing everyone in Florida in, and why don't these idiots at the NHC start issuing special warnings for the whole state so everyone can get into the beer and chips panic a once, not to mention more plywood and evacuations.

Yes indeed, I'm really looking forward to the next five days or so....


You answered your own question....Seems they may have gotten into the beer and chips already.
Quoting 97. hydrus:

I wonder the same thing. The main difference between 97-98 and this occurrence is the PDO , Which is in the Negative now. Back in 1997-98 it was almost as positive as it gets..AER and others expect a lot of blocking due to Negative AO and NAO values this winter. I know on thing, it could be a very bad winter for the eastern half.




The PDO turned positive in 2014. It flipped fast. There is some 20 year periodicity in it and positive is correlated with more rapid atmospheric warming and paradoxically more severe winters in eastern North America. The last flip to positive occurred in the mid 1970s. Winter 1976-77 was legendary for bitter cold and the three winters 76-77 through 78-79 were all exceptionally severe. The 1980s was the warmest decade globally to that time but had more North American Arctic outbreaks than any other decade of the 20'th or so far 21'st century.

I am also concerned about a nonclassical El NIno response, we get the wet and stormy part but also cold so the rain dumps become snow dumps.
Quoting 107. sar2401:

Yes, the usual crowd (not the regulars here) that always shows up when there's any kind of low near Florida will be here in a heartbeat. They will be giving us their ideas why every twist and turn of the models just means more doom for Florida, and why doesn't the NHC realize, as they do, the immediate peril this low is placing everyone in Florida in, and why don't these idiots at the NHC start issuing special warnings for the whole state so everyone can get into the beer and chips panic a once, not to mention more plywood and evacuations.

Yes indeed, I'm really looking forward to the next five days or so....



Ouch....... Don't hold back Sar, tell us how you feel. :)
112. FOREX
I'm looking out at the Gulf right now here in Panama City Beach and see no shear.
Quoting 105. 69Viking:



Sure hope we get some rain, 3 weeks tomorrow since I've had rain at my house. A good 2-3 day soaking of 2-4 inches of rain would be great!
We do indeed. I'm already four inches behind for September alone, and things are getting really dry. We can take a heavier rainstorm now than three weeks from now if we don't get some rain in the same period. The ground is going to harden off a lot more than it is now. The clay is just soft enough now that a lot of the rain is going to be absorbed by the soil instead of just running off, which is going to happen without rain soon. Even though a moderate TS will cause some problems now, it will be a lot less than a real hurricane later. Of course, this all assumes that this low brings us any rain at all, and that we'll ever get a hurricane again. :-)
Quoting 112. FOREX:

I'm looking out at the Gulf right now here in Panama City Beach and see no shear.
Just go to any of the wedding shops in PCB. You'll see plenty of shear. :-)
Quoting 109. MrNatural:


You answered your own question....Seems they may have gotten into the beer and chips already.
No panic needed for beer and chips.....a sofa can and does suffice.
Quoting 111. DeepSeaRising:



Ouch....... Don't hold back Sar, tell us how you feel. :)
Are you kidding? If I was in charge here, every one of those types making non-factual hype claims when there was a real storm people were worried about would get an immediate ban, lasting until Yellowstone blows up again. A fair percentage of these "hurricane only" posters exists only to spread fear and doubt, especially if one of their buddies starts tweeting their garbage as coming straight from WU itself, not from a disordered mind. No, I've been kind about these chowderheads so far.... :-)
Quoting 110. georgevandenberghe:



The PDO turned positive in 2014. It flipped fast. There is some 20 year periodicity in it and positive is correlated with more rapid atmospheric warming and paradoxically more severe winters in eastern North America. The last flip to positive occurred in the mid 1970s. Winter 1976-77 was legendary for bitter cold and the three winters 76-77 through 78-79 were all exceptionally severe. The 1980s was the warmest decade globally to that time but had more North American Arctic outbreaks than any other decade of the 20'th or so far 21'st century.

I am also concerned about a nonclassical El NIno response, we get the wet and stormy part but also cold so the rain dumps become snow dumps.
Thanks G...I went back and pimped my statement..Hopefully folks here know by now that I can and do make mistakes..:)
Quoting 117. sar2401:

Are you kidding? If I was in charge here, every one of those types making non-factual hype claims when there was a real storm people were worried about would get an immediate ban, lasting until Yellowstone blows up again. A fair percentage of these "hurricane only" posters exists only to spread fear and doubt, especially if one of their buddies starts tweeting their garbage as coming straight from WU itself, not from a disordered mind. No, I've been kind about these chowderheads so far.... :-)


Humor Only....... New on TWC tonight it's Sar as Hell Cop Blog Moderator. It's not Florida that's shredded, it the Florida Wishcasters and this ban is a category five. Love the Florida crowd here and Sar you crack me up.
GEOS-5 has been taking a weak sheared low to TX or LA..
Quoting 110. georgevandenberghe:



The PDO turned positive in 2014. It flipped fast. There is some 20 year periodicity in it and positive is correlated with more rapid atmospheric warming and paradoxically more severe winters in eastern North America. The last flip to positive occurred in the mid 1970s. Winter 1976-77 was legendary for bitter cold and the three winters 76-77 through 78-79 were all exceptionally severe. The 1980s was the warmest decade globally to that time but had more North American Arctic outbreaks than any other decade of the 20'th or so far 21'st century.

I am also concerned about a nonclassical El NIno response, we get the wet and stormy part but also cold so the rain dumps become snow dumps.
I mention in passing that I am more concerned by far with ice storms than snow...The ice storms of the past here were severe and killed many trees....and i really like trees...and lost 5 in the past 6 years...
Actually SAR I live in Alabama
Just to clear the air ? I live in Florida, have not doom cast. If you don't like Floridians..who cares? Honestly grow up. Or? Try.
It will be HElls Bells for the LOW Pressure into the Northern Gulf = Sheared to next June Since the first law of thermodynamics is energy is neither created or destroyed.
Quoting 114. sar2401:

Just go to any of the wedding shops in PCB. You'll see plenty of shear. :-)


It's especially evident during spring break.

Shear might be pulling off a little.
We can only hope a storm does goes through Alabama and knock out the power and internet..
Quoting 110. georgevandenberghe:



The PDO turned positive in 2014. It flipped fast. There is some 20 year periodicity in it and positive is correlated with more rapid atmospheric warming and paradoxically more severe winters in eastern North America. The last flip to positive occurred in the mid 1970s. Winter 1976-77 was legendary for bitter cold and the three winters 76-77 through 78-79 were all exceptionally severe. The 1980s was the warmest decade globally to that time but had more North American Arctic outbreaks than any other decade of the 20'th or so far 21'st century.

I am also concerned about a nonclassical El NIno response, we get the wet and stormy part but also cold so the rain dumps become snow dumps.
I think I was just used to it being negative..:)

Purple dot off the Carolinas is a little larger today seems.
Quoting 124. WeatherConvoy:

It will be HElls Bells for the LOW Pressure into the Northern Gulf = Sheared to next June Since the first law of thermodynamics is energy is neither created or destroyed.


Too early to tell, will likely ride the steering currents south and avoid the high shear. If this reaches the Panhandle or Alabama it will likely be a formidable rain producing low or tropical depression or stronger. If this is steered to the NE earlier as apposed to later in it's trip across the Gulf, then this system will certainly not develop and be a much lesser rain producer. Who lot of if's right now. Lot of energy in those gulf waters, SST's supportive, but shear and path hold the keys. NHC super cool as always. They know, all we can do is wait and see right now. No need to get excited. Yet.
...and of course ASCAT misses the strongest side of Niala.

CPHC goes 40kt for the storm even as an eye becomes intermittently evident on visible satellite. This is why I am critical of organizations outside the National Hurricane Center.

Quoting 132. DeepSeaRising:



Too early to tell, will likely ride the steering currents south and avoid the high shear. If this reaches the Panhandle or Alabama it will likely be a formidable rain producing low or tropical depression or stronger. If this is steered to the NE earlier as apposed to later in it's trip across the Gulf, then this system will certainly not develop and be a much lesser rain producer. Who lot of if's right now. Lot of energy in those gulf waters, SST's supportive, but shear and path hold the keys. NHC super cool as always. They know, all we can do is wait and see right now. No need to get excited. Yet.
I watch anything in the gulf.....It spins up the tiniest disturbance in short order.
Quoting 110. georgevandenberghe:



The PDO turned positive in 2014. It flipped fast. There is some 20 year periodicity in it and positive is correlated with more rapid atmospheric warming and paradoxically more severe winters in eastern North America. The last flip to positive occurred in the mid 1970s. Winter 1976-77 was legendary for bitter cold and the three winters 76-77 through 78-79 were all exceptionally severe. The 1980s was the warmest decade globally to that time but had more North American Arctic outbreaks than any other decade of the 20'th or so far 21'st century.

I am also concerned about a nonclassical El NIno response, we get the wet and stormy part but also cold so the rain dumps become snow dumps.


I am not liking the path you guys are taking me down. I have had enough rough winters here in the Northeast for awhile. Can I please just get one mild winter? I remember the big ice storm during the '97-98 El-Nino. I was a delivery driver at the time and when I parked and stepped out I started sliding down the street. I slipped and fell on a customer's walkway that was ice covered while he watched. I handed him his food while bleeding from the elbow and he stiffed me on the tip. I got back to the shop and ended all deliveries for the night. Quebec then got destroyed by the storm, it was a big deal at the time.
Link
Quoting 133. TropicalAnalystwx13:

...and of course ASCAT misses the strongest side of Niala.

CPHC goes 40kt for the storm even as an eye becomes intermittently evident on visible satellite. This is why I am critical of organizations outside the National Hurricane Center.


Looks rather impressive...can almost see a clear center in there.
Quoting 134. hydrus:

I watch anything in the gulf.....It spins up the tiniest disturbance in short order.

Totally. : )
Quoting 135. wartsttocs:



I am not liking the path you guys are taking me down. I have had enough rough winters here in the Northeast for awhile. Can I please just get one mild winter? I remember the big ice storm during the '97-98 El-Nino. I was a delivery driver at the time and when I parked and stepped out I started sliding down the street. I slipped and fell on a customer's walkway that was ice covered while he watched. I handed him his food while bleeding from the elbow and he stiffed me on the tip. I got back to the shop and ended all deliveries for the night. Quebec then got destroyed by the storm, it was a big deal at the time.
Link
I remember that well. I saw pics too...bad ones
Everyone have a safe weather weekend and guess we will have to monitor the Gulf/Yucatan over the weekend. Starting to see some of that energy from the E-Pac slowly move to the North into the Yucatan on the loops so it is looking like a rain event for sure regardless of tropical development (or not due to shear levels):


Quoting 81. georgevandenberghe:



They all scare me!

Daytime tornadoes are also scary and dangerous, but at least there are spotters, emergency service personnel, and members of the public out and about. They will give almost immediate warning of a funnel cloud spotted anywhere, even the ones that aren't really funnel clouds. For the ones that are real, there will be video on twitter and YouTube within five minutes of the event.

Two in the morning is a whole different matter. There aren't many of us willing or able to stay up all night looking for hook echoes close to home. All most people know is that the weather radio goes off, or they hear the sirens going off. It's dark, usually pouring, and the lighting is enough to make everything look like it's trapped in a strobe light, while the thunder is trying to blow your windows in. If you have a dog or dogs, many of them are going to be having a fit at the same time you're having a fit. You can't really tell if that's the freight train sound you're hearing or the kid up the street and his loud pickup. The whole family is terrified, and you have to figure out if it's so far away there's no danger, or if it's time to get in the interior closet or bathroom and cover everyone with pillows. It's even worse when it's a tornado like the one in Charleston early this morning, when it was one tornado appearing with very little warning.

No, if I have to get a tornado, I'll take the daytime variety every time.

We'll see if Ida makes it to 96 hours ...maybe? Maybe not. ; )
144. FOREX
Quoting 129. ncstorm:

We can only hope a storm does goes through Alabama and knock out the power and internet..
lol.
Looks like a circulation maybe forming just off shore between Roatan, Honduras and Caye Caulker, Belize.
I remember when Kiko back in 2013 was rapidly intensifying, so between updates the NHC technically had this labeled as a depression :P
Only difference with Malia is that the CPAC aint between updates...


147. FOREX
Quoting 145. stormpetrol:

Looks like a circulation maybe forming just off shore between Roatan, Honduras and Caye Caulker, Belize.
No one has posted Quint from Jaws or the Cat breathing heavily, so until then, there is no circulation.
Quoting 147. FOREX:

No one has posted Quint from Jaws or the Cat breathing heavily, so until then, there is no circulation.

LOL No bigger boat needed then. Or um..yet. I liked the guy with fixed gaze nodding too.
Working in Sumter, SC. Flash Flood Warning until 7:30 PM. It has been absolutely pouring here for the last 1 1/2 hours. Unconfirmed reports of 7" in last 2 hours over by landfill. Brief break but it is about to deluge again.
Quoting 144. FOREX:

Permanently.
Boom! The models continue to shift east to my chagrin. We do need rain in MS. My grass is crunchy because I refuse to water it. Come Sunday we will all have a clearer picture of things.
Quoting 144. FOREX:

lol.
The only time I see her posts is when someone quotes them. Every time I do, I remember why I don't want to see her posts. Real nice, nc.
Quoting 149. HaoleboySurfEC:

Working in Sumter, SC. Flash Flood Warning until 7:30 PM. It has been absolutely pouring here for the last 1 1/2 hours. Unconfirmed reports of 7" in last 2 hours over by landfill. Brief break but it is about to deluge again.


Might get a break I see, looking at radar too. All is kind of drifting N.
Quoting 116. hydrus:

No panic needed for beer and chips.....a sofa can and does suffice.


I will volunteer ( as is my usual before i retired) to be on call if yall need me
Quoting 149. HaoleboySurfEC:

Working in Sumter, SC. Flash Flood Warning until 7:30 PM. It has been absolutely pouring here for the last 1 1/2 hours. Unconfirmed reports of 7" in last 2 hours over by landfill. Brief break but it is about to deluge again.
According to radar, Sumter is about the only place in SC experiencing heavy rain right now too. looks like that storm has some kind of moisture tap to the south going on, and it just keeps redeveloping in the same area. Good luck, and I hope it doesn't get much worse.
Quoting 153. K8eCane:



I will volunteer ( as is my usual before i retired) to be on call if yall need me
Just bring along a big bag of sedatives and we'll all be OK. :-)
Quoting 150. Sandcat:

Boom! The models continue to shift east to my chagrin. We do need rain in MS. My grass is crunchy because I refuse to water it. Come Sunday we will all have a clearer picture of things.
The models are going to shift around until they have a low to work with. If the low is weak, the models still won't do a very good job. Somewhere from Louisiana over to the Big Bend of Florida is still in play, so the lawn still has a chance. :-)
Quoting 155. sar2401:

Just bring along a big bag of sedatives and we'll all be OK. :-)



sar
I have a feeling you might get that rain
Quoting 143. Starhopper:


We'll see if Ida makes it to 96 hours ...maybe? Maybe not. ; )
Probably will, if only as a remnant. The NHC is now forecasting complete dissipation by 120 hours. I sure hope so, or we'll be stuck tracking another remnant to somewhere near Florida before it's over.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
500 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2015

Not much has changed today and resilient Ida is still there. It
consists of a tight swirl of low clouds with a curved convective
band to the east of the center. The initial intensity is estimated
at 25 kt. The overall circulation is expected to decay as the
depression continues to move within an environment of high shear and
dry air. The depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low
in about 24 hours or sooner.

The center has been moving toward the northwest at about 5 kt. A
high pressure system is forecast to develop over the North Atlantic,
and this high will force the shallow depression, or its remnants, to
move toward the northwest, and then, as the high to the north
intensifies, a sharp turn to the west or southwest should occur
Sunday night or Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 22.5N 45.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 23.5N 46.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 24.5N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/0600Z 25.0N 47.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 27/1800Z 24.6N 48.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1800Z 23.5N 51.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1800Z 22.6N 54.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Yeah Sar. It is weak huh. They give it 24 hours it appears. Boo on remnants. Too tough. lol
Well I'll be back later to check the shear happenings. Good info all. TY
Quoting 151. sar2401:

The only time I see her posts is when someone quotes them. Every time I do, I remember why I don't want to see her posts. Real nice, nc.


Was pithy and funny what she dropped just for you. You two would be perfect for each other. Matching chairs and sweaters blogging on WU.............together. :) I've always liked you both. Neither of you are for everyone. :) Such is life.
Quoting 157. K8eCane:




sar
I have a feeling you might get that rain
I'm hoping, although the path still isn't too clear, and won't be for at least the next couple of days. As long as I'm on the east side of this low, I should get at least some rain. If it actually makes landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida and tracks across NE Florida, I'm screwed, since I'll be on the dry side of the storm the entire time. We shall see which i is, or maybe none of the above. :-)
Quoting 161. DeepSeaRising:



Was pithy and funny what she dropped just for you.
Hoping I'd lose my power and internet was pithy and funny? You and I must have different definitions of those terms.
Current watches for SC/NC coastal regions and i just wanted to practice posting images again
Quoting 133. TropicalAnalystwx13:

...and of course ASCAT misses the strongest side of Niala.

CPHC goes 40kt for the storm even as an eye becomes intermittently evident on visible satellite. This is why I am critical of organizations outside the National Hurricane Center.


Ida was a 45 knot storm for a time and sure never looked that good. That's the trouble with depending on a lot of subjective measures compared to aircraft recon. When the day finally comes that NOAA has a fleet of 25 Global Hawks that can loiter near or in a storm for almost its entire lifespan, then we can finally get rid of the Dvorak scale.
Quoting 164. K8eCane:

Current watches for SC/NC coastal regions and i just wanted to practice posting images again
Good job, Katie. Now, where's the legend that tells me what those colors mean? :-)
Quoting 163. sar2401:

Hoping I'd lose my power and internet was pithy and funny? You and I must have different definitions of those terms.


Your right. She probably did mean it. :) How far are you from the coast?
Houston, er, Honolulu, I think we may have a problem. Looks like an eye is developing. And the damn storm is still on a heading for the Big Island. Well, I guess there's still time for a turn or wind shear decoupling. Clocks ticking.
Looking like a weak tropical storm moving towards the Panhandle of FL. I'll take whatever we get at this point. And honestly if the season was to end with Joaquin I would be fine with that as well. Hopefully, you folks in the Panhandle, Mississippi, and Alabama get some beneficial rains out of this. I think it will be an east weighted storm because of the windshear in the Gulf.

Cloudy right now with a rainy weekend expected.


850mb Vort more offshore than 3 hours and slightly stronger
Quoting 170. Climate175:

Cloudy right now with a rainy weekend expected.
Cloudy with a chance of meatballs expected in Daytona Beach this weekend. I have my plates ready! :D
Quoting 168. BayFog:

Houston, er, Honolulu, I think we may have a problem. Looks like an eye is developing. And the damn storm is still on a heading for the Big Island. Well, I guess there's still time for a turn or wind shear decoupling. Clocks ticking.



NHC doesn't even think she'll be a 'cane. But she's definitely looking healthy.

Quoting 166. sar2401:

Good job, Katie. Now, where's the legend that tells me what those colors mean? :-)


HA...I thought about that after I posted it. Don't know what happened to them. Let me research it
http://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/ilm.png
Quoting 175. K8eCane:

http://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/ilm.png


Dang it...I will work on it tonight when theres zero traffic so i dont bother anyone lol
Quoting 172. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Cloudy with a chance of meatballs expected in Daytona Beach this weekend. I have my plates ready! :D
Yum!
Quoting 169. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Looking like a weak tropical storm moving towards the Panhandle of FL. I'll take whatever we get at this point. And honestly if the season was to end with Joaquin I would be fine with that as well. Hopefully, you folks in the Panhandle, Mississippi, and Alabama get some beneficial rains out of this. I think it will be an east weighted storm because of the windshear in the Gulf.


your right this could get interesting
Quoting 129. ncstorm:

We can only hope a storm does goes through Alabama and knock out the power and internet..


Come on Sar. You give it out with the best. Captain WKC bring down machine; among others. Knowing you for as long as I have, I know you've played a pivotal role in positions of power. Always with the public good in mind and often very much in need. Not often you've had to take the back in the forth you're so use to giving. Thick skin. :) And keep the zingers coming Sir.
Quoting 153. K8eCane:



I will volunteer ( as is my usual before i retired) to be on call if yall need me
Do not be taken aback when I WU ya....Cloudy and rainy here today. Never got over 65 Degrees...Sign of things to come.
Quoting 167. DeepSeaRising:



Your right. She probably did mean it. :) How far are you from the coast?

Now that is funny...to me...She is feisty...Taking out the whole state for one blogger and all...:)
Quoting 182. hydrus:

Now that is funny...to me...She is feisty...Taking out the whole state for one blogger and all...:)



Hydrus
Whats your location again?
Quoting 180. Patrap:

Meet Nola Roux in service gear



Shes a fine one! I have two dogs but neither like her. They can tell when bad weather is coming tho
Wow, that was really something. That may be the hardest I have ever seen it rain and such an isolated event. My house 40 miles to the north has seen trace amounts today. It has broken up over us and my way home looks ok. We have good drainage here at the plant, but I'm sure there is plenty of urban flooding east of downtown and close to I-95.

Later. Surf's up.

Quoting 154. sar2401:

According to radar, Sumter is about the only place in SC experiencing heavy rain right now too. looks like that storm has some kind of moisture tap to the south going on, and it just keeps redeveloping in the same area. Good luck, and I hope it doesn't get much worse.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ida, located a little more than 1000 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands.

1. A trough of low pressure located over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize
and Guatemala is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. While a weak surface low will probably form once the
disturbance reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico in a couple of days,
environmental conditions are not particularly favorable for
significant development early next week while the system moves
northward over the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

2. Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms over the western
Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda are
associated with an upper-level low and a surface trough.
Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur
while it drifts toward the north. Upper-level winds are forecast to
become unfavorable for development after the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Blake

188. MahFL
Shear is relaxing again on Ida:

190. JLPR2
Quoting 188. MahFL:

Shear is relaxing again on Ida:




I'm so annoyed by it.
Unless it starts looking like Niala I'll just ignore it. XD
The NAM for several runs is spinning up a low near the bahamas and bringing it towards the US..

I know the NAM isn't tropical but its a great model that depicts atmospheric conditions..



GFS is hinting at it as well..



and I'm maybe late but there is a yellow X on the area..not sure how long its been there as I haven't been paying attention..
Quoting 183. K8eCane:




Hydrus
Whats your location again?
Rock Island, TN.
Ida is changing its course? Hmmm

Invest 98L

Last Updated: 9/25/2015, 7:00:00 PM (Central Standard Time)

Weather Underground ‏@wunderground 5m5 minutes ago

Watching area near 24.5N 68.5W for tropical development [Invest 98L]: winds 25 mph moving N at 5 mph
Quoting 191. ncstorm:

The NAM for several runs is spinning up a low near the bahamas and bringing it towards the US..

I know the NAM isn't tropical but its a great model that depicts atmospheric conditions..



GFS is hinting at it as well..



and I'm maybe late but there is a yellow X on the area..not sure how long its been there as I haven't been paying attention..


Is that 98l? I just saw that too.
Quoting 194. AtHomeInTX:


Invest 98L

Last Updated: 9/25/2015, 7:00:00 PM (Central Standard Time)

Weather Underground ‏@wunderground 5m5 minutes ago

Watching area near 24.5N 68.5W for tropical development [Invest 98L]: winds 25 mph moving N at 5 mph
Thought I saw a little twist in there this morn.
Quoting 180. Patrap:

Meet Nola Roux in service gear


What is with the muzzle?
Quoting 195. AtHomeInTX:



Is that 98l? I just saw that too.


Yep..good job!
Quoting 175. K8eCane:

http://www.weather.gov/wwamap/png/ilm.png
All I did was copy the link in your post, click on the picture icon, paste the link in the image URL box, and then click OK. Looks like you're forgetting to use the image icon and just pasting the link into your post. That works at most modern sites, but not here, with our 15 year old cobbled together "new" software. It's supposed to be an initiation to see if you're worthy enough to actually post a picture here. :-)



GFDL has done quite well with IDA, with EURO having a couple really accurate runs, just not as consistent.
Quoting 196. hydrus:

Thought I saw a little twist in there this morn.
I only get an error message while attempting to use the floater for 98L at the NHC site. Are you able to get it to work?
Quoting 198. ncstorm:



Yep..good job!


Lol. Lucky twitter glimpse. :) I hadn't even seen the yellow x. Was surprised by it.
Quoting 194. AtHomeInTX:


Invest 98L

Last Updated: 9/25/2015, 7:00:00 PM (Central Standard Time)

Weather Underground ‏@wunderground 5m5 minutes ago

Watching area near 24.5N 68.5W for tropical development [Invest 98L]: winds 25 mph moving N at 5 mph
I wonder if the invest form from the persistent ULL, near that area all week? Or...... ????
Quoting 179. DeepSeaRising:



Come on Sar. You give it out with the best. Captain WKC bring down machine; among others. Knowing you for as long as I have, I know you've played a pivotal role in positions of power. Always with the public good in mind and often very much in need. Not often you've had to take the back in the forth you're so use to giving. Thick skin. :) And keep the zingers coming Sir.
Give me a break. Have you ever seen me wish anything bad for the Cayman Islands or on WKC personally? You think if it had been reversed and I had wished the same thing for North Carolina there wouldn't have been howls of outrage? Enough. She's not worth the energy.
i wounder if 98L is what lifted of ex TD 9
Quoting 203. HuracanTaino:

I wonder if the invest form from the persistent ULL, near that area all week? Or...... ????


I'm not sure. I have heard of that happening before. Seems to have been a while though.
Quoting 188. MahFL:

Shear is relaxing again on Ida:


inb4 I get death threats for being a "Florida Wishcaster" but I have been saying for several days now that FLA should still monitor Ida, as most models take it generally in that direction. And now that the shear has slacked off and we are seeing a blowup of convection, it will be interesting if Ida can keep that convection and strengthen. Remember DON'T count OUT the I storms....
Quoting 203. HuracanTaino:

I wonder if the invest form from the persistent ULL, near that area all week? Or...... ????
I think so. It appears the ULL has finally broken away from the broad tough and is attempting to establish itself as an independant surface low. I believe it will become TS Kate and follow a path and outcome somewhat similar to Tropical Storm Henri. Unlike our Kate here, I don't think this Kate is going to be very exciting. :-)
Quoting 201. sar2401:

I only get an error message while attempting to use the floater for 98L at the NHC site. Are you able to get it to work?
Good evening Sar..I have not tried it yet.
Quoting 188. MahFL:

Shear is relaxing again on Ida:




Ida also seems to be benefiting from an approaching Dmax- one of the most extensively loose outer bands seems near east of the islands...An ongoing flood/ flash flood threat does persist throughout the Lesser Antilles in this Strong El-Nino year. May God be with us- come what may.

Blessings!
Anyone seen it?

A lot of energy in S/W Carb. if shear is not as high in the Gulf. We could have more than what some may think!
Quoting 133. TropicalAnalystwx13:

...and of course ASCAT misses the strongest side of Niala.

CPHC goes 40kt for the storm even as an eye becomes intermittently evident on visible satellite. This is why I am critical of organizations outside the National Hurricane Center.


I think you should spring the Hawaii crew a tiny break, man .... this is the most storms they've had to deal with in the history of seasons in the CPac .... these guys legitimately could use more time most summers catching waves than tracking them....

Quoting 165. sar2401:

Ida was a 45 knot storm for a time and sure never looked that good. That's the trouble with depending on a lot of subjective measures compared to aircraft recon. When the day finally comes that NOAA has a fleet of 25 Global Hawks that can loiter near or in a storm for almost its entire lifespan, then we can finally get rid of the Dvorak scale.
This in the face of some pple who would prefer to just close down the NHC altogether, except perhaps for FL storms ..... as useful as they would be, I don't imagine this day will come any time soon .... costs of Global Hawks would have to go WAY down, or there would have to be no more mortal enemies for the Armed Forces to drone over .....

Quoting 169. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Looking like a weak tropical storm moving towards the Panhandle of FL. I'll take whatever we get at this point. And honestly if the season was to end with Joaquin I would be fine with that as well. Hopefully, you folks in the Panhandle, Mississippi, and Alabama get some beneficial rains out of this. I think it will be an east weighted storm because of the windshear in the Gulf.

src="http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/model s/gfs/2015092518/gfs_pres_wind_watl_13.png"
Hmmmm.... I think I need one or two more to reach my quota ....
Quoting 171. stormpetrol:



850mb Vort more offshore than 3 hours and slightly stronger

Is that ULL north of Hispaniola developing a surface reflection???? I've been watching that for a couple days now ...

I told you and I got blasted. Never again :)


Ida. The storm that just won't give up!

I'm honestly impressed.



Quoting 203. HuracanTaino:

I wonder if the invest form from the persistent ULL, near that area all week? Or...... ????
Has to be. That's about where the ULL should be now, and this morning it was looking just as persistent as it has been all week.


I'm finding it interesting that we're seeing a potential STS / TS development from a ULL - In September ....
Quoting 206. Tazmanian:

i wounder if 98L is what lifted of ex TD 9
I think it was more like a split between it and Ida .... but you are right .... that ULL was right in place to shear ex TD9 and sap all its energy.
mmm? Interesting!
Quoting 216. Grothar:

I told you and I got blasted. Never again :)



Quoting 218. BahaHurican:

Has to be. That's about where the ULL should be now, and this morning it was looking just as persistent as it has been all week.


I'm finding it interesting that we're seeing a potential STS / TS development from a ULL - In September ....



You know, that ULL has always looked a bit suspicious to me...
Quoting 216. Grothar:

I told you and I got blasted. Never again :)



You didn't tell me. If any thing, I told YOU!!!


:O)

Howarya, Gro?
Quoting 199. sar2401:

All I did was copy the link in your post, click on the picture icon, paste the link in the image URL box, and then click OK. Looks like you're forgetting to use the image icon and just pasting the link into your post. That works at most modern sites, but not here, with our 15 year old cobbled together "new" software. It's supposed to be an initiation to see if you're worthy enough to actually post a picture here. :-)




Yep! Thats what im doing, forgtting to paste the image URL into the message box because im forgetting to click the icon
Good to see they finally posted some kind of warnings for Hawaii. Most likely a flooding rain event, but given the steady NW heading, wind and surf are not out of the question as hazards. The CPacHC seems pretty confident about SW shear keeping this thing at bay. Well, it IS their profession.
Quoting 221. FunnelVortex:



You know, that ULL has always looked a bit suspicious to me...
As soon as it "ate" TD9, I started watching it.... Okay, that's not exactly how it happened, but .... what can say,.... Friday night melodrama!

Like Ida, it has been persistently spinning out between about 50 and 65 W for the better part of this week. We talked about the possibility and the likelihood of it spinning down a couple of days ago.
Quoting 222. BahaHurican:

You didn't tell me. If any thing, I told YOU!!!


:O)

Howarya, Gro?


Tired, old, angry, grouchy and miserable. And you?
Looks like the Blog is going to get very busy in the coming days.
Quoting 213. pureet1948:

Anyone seen it?





what do you think the silly ? too that will be
Quoting 226. Grothar:



Tired, old, angry, grouchy and miserable. And you?
Same as you, except not angry .... too tired to be angry .....

Quoting 208. Camerooski:

inb4 I get death threats for being a "Florida Wishcaster" but I have been saying for several days now that FLA should still monitor Ida, as most models take it generally in that direction. And now that the shear has slacked off and we are seeing a blowup of convection, it will be interesting if Ida can keep that convection and strengthen. Remember DON'T count OUT the I storms....
Death threats?

Do you see some evidence on this graphic that shear has relaxed in the last 24 hours either directly over Ida or along the storm's route of travel west? This is about the fourth time we've seen a blowup in convection with Ida. Did Ida ever retain the convection or get stronger as a result? Whatever's left of Ida will head generally west by Tuesday, but even these remnants will dissipate by Wednesday. If Ida is still a named storm by Tuesday, then I won't count it out.

BTW, is this the only place one can find cyclone phase diagrams nowadays?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/


This appears to be for 98L ....
Quoting 217. FunnelVortex:

Ida. The storm that just won't give up!

I'm honestly impressed.





The most impressive thing about Ida is the large extent of the low level wind field. Lots of momentum energy. Bu the way things are looking, all that is just going to spin down.
Quoting 189. hydrus:




Bring it on!
Quoting 230. sar2401:

Death threats?

Do you see some evidence on this graphic that shear has relaxed in the last 24 hours either directly over Ida or along the storm's route of travel west? This is about the fourth time we've seen a blowup in convection with Ida. Did Ida ever retain the convection or get stronger as a result? Whatever's left of Ida will head generally west by Tuesday, but even these remnants will dissipate by Wednesday. If Ida is still a named storm by Tuesday, then I won't count it out.


I'm less impressed by all that and more impressed by the fact that Ida would have to get through two other low pressure systems to get to FL. As long as all that energy is being flung about, Ida's blocked from more than a westward drift. Of course, it being an el nino year, Ida's chance of drifting that long seem very limited indeed.

At least for now, even the potential 92E crossover seems more likely to impact the US than Ida. This could change, I agree, but seems very unlikely to do so any time in the next 96.
Here is the UKMet's take on it:

Quoting 213. pureet1948:

Anyone seen it?


You mean the yellow X south of Bermuda and north of the Bahamas? It has been discussed in a number of posts before yours.
Quoting 135. wartsttocs:



I am not liking the path you guys are taking me down. I have had enough rough winters here in the Northeast for awhile. Can I please just get one mild winter? I remember the big ice storm during the '97-98 El-Nino. I was a delivery driver at the time and when I parked and stepped out I started sliding down the street. I slipped and fell on a customer's walkway that was ice covered while he watched. I handed him his food while bleeding from the elbow and he stiffed me on the tip. I got back to the shop and ended all deliveries for the night. Quebec then got destroyed by the storm, it was a big deal at the time.
Link


DC metro does not get a lot of huge ice storms. But every once in awhile..


1994. I think roughly half the ice of the 20'th century fell that winter. Maybe I exaggerate but not much. We had two huge ice storms and a lot of smaller ice events also. Little snow that year. 100 miles north had record snowy winter. January 17, following an arctic outbreak, intense warm moist advection brings snow to ice pellets to rain, lots of the latter two. The rain soaks the ice pellets into a mass, then the arctic front comes though again, temps fall into the low teens and the whole mess freezes into a 1.5" blanket of hard smooth ice ! Even grassy surfaces were unwalkable after this event. And that doesn't count as one of our two major ice events because it didn't accumulate on power lines and little was actually glaze, mostly ice pellets and rain. That arctic front was truly Arctic.. the coldest air mass I have ever seen in this area in my fifty years here! Temps were below zero even at DCA with howling northwest winds. The power grid was near collapse and we had rotating blackouts. Gas lines lost pressure at their terminuses and many homes in Central PG CO lost heat (not mine.. I'm in a better built up area). Conditions were worse for my aging frail Dad in Central PA, he was at risk of losing power and was snowed in with 22" of snow with a frozen fuel line to boot. So of course I went up and got him. It was in the low teens below zero on a sunny AFTERNOON in south Central PA near Waynesboro when I got there. Meanwhile at home my own sump pump line 6" buried, froze and tjen a street water main broke causing a glacier to advance to my house, reach my foundation and create a need for said pump. I bought a backup,,( hang code!!) and ran the discharge to my sink and got out of THAT problem.
Quoting 235. BahaHurican:

I'm less impressed by all that and more impressed by the fact that Ida would have to get through two other low pressure systems to get to FL. As long as all that energy is being flung about, Ida's blocked from more than a westward drift. Of course, it being an el nino year, Ida's chance of drifting that long seem very limited indeed.

At least for now, even the potential 92E crossover seems more likely to impact the US than Ida. This could change, I agree, but seems very unlikely to do so any time in the next 96.
That's why I didn't even mention Florida. It has so many obstacles just to move any distance west that Florida is really out of the question. We all like to root for the underdog, but Ida is on strike two of the last up of the last inning, and it's never shown any evidence it can hit a ball. Kind of hard to ignore those odds. :-)
Quoting 217. FunnelVortex:

Ida. The storm that just won't give up!

I'm honestly impressed.






Right as soon as I thought convection would cover the center, it resists to the east.
Quoting 231. BahaHurican:

BTW, is this the only place one can find cyclone phase diagrams nowadays?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
It seems to be the originating site. Everytime I find them on another site, the URL always leads back to FSU.
N-e-u-t-e-r-c-a-n-e

"Neutercane"



A neutercane is a small (meso-)scale (< 100 miles in diameter) low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical cyclone and mid-latitude or extratropical cyclone. A subclass of sub-tropical cyclone, neutercanes are distinguished by their small size and their origination, sometimes forming within mesoscale convective complexes.
The term was coined by Robert Bundgaard, after he participated in a research flight in the early 1970's. He witnessed a small cyclonic circulation over land, which appeared to have both tropical and extratropical characteristics. He used the term in later discussions with Dr. Bob Simpson, then director of the National Hurricane Center. 'Neutercane' was meant to synthesize the word 'neutral' and 'hurricane' to imply a hurricane-like vortex which was midway between tropical and extratropical.
Dr. Simpson observed similar circulations on geostationary satellite loops, and conducted an investigation with hurricane researcher Banner Miller. He presented a talk on them at the 8th AMS Conference on Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology in 1973. During the 1972 hurricane season, Simpson inaugurated use of the term in official bulletins, labeling the second (Bravo) and third (Charlie) subtropical cyclones observed that year as Neutercanes. (Neutercane Bravo transformed into Hurricane Betty.) However, objections in the press to the term as possibly sexist led to NOAA management discouraging use of the term, and ordering Simpson to cease use of any further Government resources in conducting research on the phenomenon.
From then on, the term "Sub-tropical Cyclone" was used for all such systems. However, the term entered into several dictionaries, including the AMS Glossary of Meteorology (which misidentifies them as "large"), and has been used in the scientific literature.

References
Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., Feb. 1973, Vo. 54 No. 2, p. 153

Quoting 238. georgevandenberghe:

....Conditions were worse for my aging frail Dad in Central PA, he was at risk of losing power and was snowed in with 22" of snow with a frozen fuel line to boot. So of course I went up and got him. It was in the low teens below zero on a sunny AFTERNOON in south Central PA near Waynesboro when I got there. ....
Yes, I remember those kinds of days well in Cleveland. You'd just run out to the car to get something without a coat because it was a nice, sunny day, and then be almost overcome by the cold before you could get back in the house and dress up. Even if I made it to the car, that's when they had metal door handles, so I'd have to peel my skin off the door handle before I could open the door and crank the car before I died. Yeah, lovely memories of Cleveland in the winter. :-)
Drizzled a bit around 2PM but nothing until now. Starting to see some small cells popping up as the humidity climbs. Well over 80% now.

Quoting 79. sar2401:

Just one more instance of how, when you bend over too far, things will go right over your head... :-)


I assumed it was in jest, but sarcasm and text can be a "grey" area, lol
Persistent thunderstorms in the Tampa Bay area tonight. Some areas have seen over 2 inches of rain. Not a drop for me though.
Quoting 223. K8eCane:



Yep! Thats what im doing, forgtting to paste the image URL into the message box because im forgetting to click the icon
Since the icons don't even have hover labels, you can stare at them a while trying to figure out what they mean. You really shouldn't have to go through all that rigmarole just to post a link or picture. 15 years ago, having a dialog box that generated its own HTML code was the height of coolness. Most sites have moved beyond that now.
It was a stormy afternoon here in Orlando and now I'm @ 53" for the year.

MCO : Orlando Intl : 90 / 73 / 1.74
ORL : Orlando Exec : 91 / 74 / 1.42
Quoting 245. tampabaymatt:

Persistent thunderstorms in the Tampa Bay area tonight. Some areas have seen over 2 inches of rain. Not a drop for me though.



4" to 5" reported near Maitland north of Orlando
Quoting 243. sar2401:

Yes, I remember those kinds of days well in Cleveland. You'd just run out to the car to get something without a coat because it was a nice, sunny day, and then be almost overcome by the cold before you could get back in the house and dress up. Even if I made it to the car, that's when they had metal door handles, so I'd have to peel my skin off the door handle before I could open the door and crank the car before I died. Yeah, lovely memories of Cleveland in the winter. :-)


I remember the blizzard of 78-79... my mom had the forethought to always keep a snow shovel in our basement... that year she had to lower my brothers thru a window to go around and shovel us out of the house
Quoting 245. tampabaymatt:

Persistent thunderstorms in the Tampa Bay area tonight. Some areas have seen over 2 inches of rain. Not a drop for me though.

Westchase hasn't really seen a drop either.
Quoting 199. sar2401:

All I did was copy the link in your post, click on the picture icon, paste the link in the image URL box, and then click OK. Looks like you're forgetting to use the image icon and just pasting the link into your post. That works at most modern sites, but not here, with our 15 year old cobbled together "new" software. It's supposed to be an initiation to see if you're worthy enough to actually post a picture here. :-)




Wow, Onslow county is still under a Beach Hazard Statement (the light colored one). Not sure if the New River contributes to it, it flows pretty wide at the mouth and erodes Topsail's north end without a low contributing to nasty seas.
Quoting 242. Patrap:

N-e-u-t-e-r-c-a-n-e

"Neutercane"



A neutercane is a small (meso-)scale (< 100 miles in diameter) low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical cyclone and mid-latitude or extratropical cyclone. A subclass of sub-tropical cyclone, neutercanes are distinguished by their small size and their origination, sometimes forming within mesoscale convective complexes.
The term was coined by Robert Bundgaard, after he participated in a research flight in the early 1970's. He witnessed a small cyclonic circulation over land, which appeared to have both tropical and extratropical characteristics. He used the term in later discussions with Dr. Bob Simpson, then director of the National Hurricane Center. 'Neutercane' was meant to synthesize the word 'neutral' and 'hurricane' to imply a hurricane-like vortex which was midway between tropical and extratropical.
Dr. Simpson observed similar circulations on geostationary satellite loops, and conducted an investigation with hurricane researcher Banner Miller. He presented a talk on them at the 8th AMS Conference on Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology in 1973. During the 1972 hurricane season, Simpson inaugurated use of the term in official bulletins, labeling the second (Bravo) and third (Charlie) subtropical cyclones observed that year as Neutercanes. (Neutercane Bravo transformed into Hurricane Betty.) However, objections in the press to the term as possibly sexist led to NOAA management discouraging use of the term, and ordering Simpson to cease use of any further Government resources in conducting research on the phenomenon.
From then on, the term "Sub-tropical Cyclone" was used for all such systems. However, the term entered into several dictionaries, including the AMS Glossary of Meteorology (which misidentifies them as "large"), and has been used in the scientific literature.

References
Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., Feb. 1973, Vo. 54 No. 2, p. 153



I love learning about your posts Pat, keep them coming!
Quoting 250. RavensFan:


Westchase hasn't really seen a drop either.


I'm just north of you in Citrus Park.
Quoting 244. win1gamegiantsplease:

Drizzled a bit around 2PM but nothing until now. Starting to see some small cells popping up as the humidity climbs. Well over 80% now.



I assumed it was in jest, but sarcasm and text can be a "grey" area, lol
Not you, it was the OP that I was referring to having things go over his head. These things seem to be hard to convey on the internet sometimes.

Looks like some drier air is working its way into the Charleston area, so I think you've just about seen the last of the rain this evening. You've probably see about the lst of the rain until maybe late Wednesday or Thursday when what's left of what was some storm named Kate moves through Georgia to you, assuming some storm named Kate ever existed. That also assumes that the storm that might be named Kate, but then wasn't, doesn't come ashore in Louisiana somewhere.

There's still a little uncertainty with this forecast. :-)
NASA MSFC Earth Science OfficeGOES-E FULL Infrared Satellite Data
25 Sep 2015 23:45 UTC [4-km resolution]

Raw data courtesy of the NASA MSFC Earth Science Office in Huntsville Alabama
Now that would be something if IDA ended up in the Bahamas.

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL
1058 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR.


HIGH RIVER LEVELS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND A NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
IMPEDING DOWNSTREAM FLOW HAS PUSHED THE ST JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR TO
REACH FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND FLOOD STAGE THIS
WEEKEND THEN FALL SLOWLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.



FLC069-127-270000-
/O.EXT.KMLB.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150927T0000Z/
/ASTF1.1.ER.150925T0915Z.150926T0000Z.150926T1800 Z.NR/
1058 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE ST JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.


*AT 2.8 FEET, MINOR FLOODING OCCURS TO A FEW HOMES IN LOW LYING AREAS
ALONG THE RIVER. FLOODING OF LOW LYING STREETS AND YARDS NORTH OF FOX
ROAD ON THE LAKE COUNTY SIDE OF ASTOR, AND FROM RIVER ROAD NORTHWARD
ON THE VOLUSIA SIDE OF THE RIVER. DOCKS COVERED AT SOUTH MOON FISH
CAMP AND APPROACHING SEA WALL AT BLAIR`S JUNGLE DEN.
98 L is here. The ULL? : )

Quoting 246. sar2401:

Since the icons don't even have hover labels, you can stare at them a while trying to figure out what they mean. You really shouldn't have to go through all that rigmarole just to post a link or picture. 15 years ago, having a dialog box that generated its own HTML code was the height of coolness. Most sites have moved beyond that now.


Or you could completely go oldskool like me and make your own html code with the img src="****.jpg" tag.

....jus' sayin'
Quoting 249. tiggeriffic:



I remember the blizzard of 78-79... my mom had the forethought to always keep a snow shovel in our basement... that year she had to lower my brothers thru a window to go around and shovel us out of the house

You have to ever get hot water from the kitchen and pour it on the inside of an outside door to melt the ice so you could get out that door? Just get done shoveling when the plow comes by and fills the driveway right back up? Have it be so cold for weeks on end that it looked like all the windows were made out of ground glass...then you realized you hadn't actually seen anything outside those windows in weeks? Winter up there was a real ball.
Quoting 261. KuCommando:



Or you could completely go oldskool like me and make your own html code with the img src="****.jpg" tag.

....jus' sayin'
Yes, you could. You could also drive a car that needed a handle to crank the engine every day also, but why would you?
Quoting 217. FunnelVortex:

Ida. The storm that just won't give up!

I'm honestly impressed.




Don't get too impressed. It's shrinking again... :-)
sal and shear unrelenting

why the heck not

00z NAM and 98L..consistent runs..

Quoting 266. JrWeathermanFL:

why the heck not


Never know huh. Seems to stay above 20N a little. Shear is 20max along that line. Lots of dry air for awhile.
Well Ida refuse to die, might affect the Bahamas and the US, later on. Might be a tropical storm or a dissipating low. Who knows what Ida might do at that point. Tenacious I storm.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2015

The depression consists of a swirl of low clouds with pulsing
convection in the eastern part of the circulation. Although Ida
isn't very impressive on satellite imagery, the latest ASCAT data
showed a small area of 30-35 kt winds in the southeastern quadrant
of the cyclone. Since the convective structure has degraded since
the ASCAT pass and the Dvorak estimates are low, the initial wind
speed is conservatively set to 30 kt.

Ida is still forecast, albeit with low confidence, to decay into a
remnant low in 24 h while the cyclone remains in a high shear, low
moisture environment during the next day or so. Global and
regional model guidance, however, are starting to suggest that Ida
will encounter a more favorable environment in 2-3 days with less
shear and warmer waters, with only the GFS model now showing
dissipation. In fact, most of the guidance brings the cyclone back
to tropical storm strength by day 5. I'd like to see more
consistent guidance before forecasting that solution, but as a
compromise, the new prediction calls for Ida to regenerate as
tropical depression, but with limited strengthening. While the new
forecast is above the previous one, it is below almost all of the
guidance except for the GFS.
No where left for the water to go here. Already surpassed our normal rainfall for the whole year.

98L. Floater on it already
Good night all..

18z GFDL Ensembles on Ida

275. csmda
Well my 100% chance for rain on Monday just dropped to 96%.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ida, located a little more than 1000 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands.

A trough of low pressure located over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize
and Guatemala is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. While a weak surface low will probably form once the
disturbance reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico in a couple of days,
environmental conditions are not particularly favorable for
significant development early next week while the system moves
northward over the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms over the western
Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda are
associated with an upper-level low and a surface trough.
Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur
while it drifts toward the north. Upper-level winds are forecast to
become unfavorable for development after the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

invest 98L need to be watch where did this invest come from
Quoting 274. ncstorm:

Good night all..

18z GFDL Ensembles on Ida




That would be something IDA can pull off the unexpected and move into the Bahamas as a TS.
Quoting 279. StormTrackerScott:




Just absolute pristine conditions for tc development. Lol.

And that pic you took, what kind of palm is that? Here in NC I've only seen three palms that aren't native to here being grown, Chusan palms, Needle palms, and those short fat trunked ones that have the long fronds. Only Sabal palmetto and Sabal minor are native.

I see some turning here. A low developing?


moving sws or sw at the end here!!
Quoting 281. win1gamegiantsplease:



Just absolute pristine conditions for tc development. Lol.

And that pic you took, what kind of palm is that? Here in NC I've only seen three palms that aren't native to here being grown, Chusan palms, Needle palms, and those short fat trunked ones that have the long fronds. Only Sabal palmetto and Sabal minors are native.


The flooding pic isn't mine. It was sent in from someone just north of me.
Quoting 269. StormTrackerScott:




I'd love to see a lightning storm in Florida. I've been to the sunshine state several times, rained maybe two days that I was there. Though when I was in Jacksonville it was actually pretty chilly and dry one day, but warmed up quickly the next in time for football.


invest 92E moving north right now
Quoting 286. win1gamegiantsplease:



I'd love to see a lightning storm in Florida. I've been to the sunshine state several times, rained maybe two days that I was there. Though when I was in Jacksonville it was actually pretty chilly and dry one day, but warmed up quickly the next in time for football.


Come a little more south next time to the Orlando area. We see our fair share of lightning 6 months straight from mid May thru mid October.

A neighbor posted this 2 years ago. Awesome video of a nasty seabreeze collision that occurred in my area.

Link
Quoting 285. StormTrackerScott:



The flooding pic isn't mine. It was sent in from someone just north of me.


OK. You have any idea what kind of palm it is? Looks really nice and healthy. Sabal palms fare better in humidity and are really strong against wind and flooding but they prefer drier, sandy soil, which is all we got up here for the most part.
Quoting 289. win1gamegiantsplease:



OK. You have any idea what kind of palm it is? Looks really nice and healthy. Sabal palms fare better in humidity and are really strong against wind and flooding but they prefer drier, sandy soil, which is all we got up here for the most part.

Canary Island Date Palm. Large spikes on the lower part of the fronds. ; )

Could also be a...Sylvester Palm
Ida making a comeback?
Quoting 288. StormTrackerScott:



Come a little more south next time to the Orlando area. We see our fair share of lightning 6 months straight from mid May thru mid October.


Funny you say that, only times I've seen rain in Florida were in Orlando back in '02 or so. I went to Miami and Homestead/Key Largo in the dry season and have been to JAX and Nassau County numerous times, no rain not to mention lightning.

Best lightning storm I've seen was the outer bands of Arthur approaching Nags Head, NC last year. At about midnight and over the water, very pretty.



TROPICAL STORM NIALA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP062015
0300 UTC SAT SEP 26 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM NIALA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 150.7W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 55SE 0SW 35NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 150.7W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 150.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.8N 151.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.3N 152.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.3N 154.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.2N 154.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.9N 155.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 16.5N 157.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 16.0N 159.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 150.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM NIALA.
Quoting 290. Starhopper:


Canary Island Date Palm. Large spikes on the lower part of the fronds. ; )



Ah, thank you. The pic Scott posted I guess is a younger one. Very lovely looking tree (I guess being a monocot not technically a tree but whatever).

As a Carolina native, still biased towards the palmetto as being the prettiest. Hunting Island SC, the Sea Islands, and Bald Head Island NC have beautiful groves of wild palmettos.
Quoting 289. win1gamegiantsplease:



OK. You have any idea what kind of palm it is? Looks really nice and healthy. Sabal palms fare better in humidity and are really strong against wind and flooding but they prefer drier, sandy soil, which is all we got up here for the most part.
we call them cabbage palms, black bears love them.

Quoting 292. win1gamegiantsplease:



Funny you say that, only times I've seen rain in Florida were in Orlando back in '02 or so. I went to Miami and Homestead/Key Largo in the dry season and have been to JAX and Nassau County numerous times, no rain not to mention lightning.

Best lightning storm I've seen was the outer bands of Arthur approaching Nags Head, NC last year. At about midnight and over the water, very pretty.


Watch this video this is from my neighborhood. Tower in backyard gets hit by lightning several times.

A neighbor posted this 2 years ago. Awesome video of a nasty seabreeze collision that occurred in my area.

Link
Quoting 296. rasputin32327:

we call them cabbage palms, black bears love them.




Cabbage palms, eh? That's what Sabal palmettos are called often times. That's definitely not a palmetto tree, but I've read that Native Americans used to eat the bud of palms and they taste similar to cabbages. But eating the bud kills the tree.

Quoting 297. StormTrackerScott:



Watch this video this is from my neighborhood. Tower in backyard gets hit by lightning.

A neighbor posted this 2 years ago. Awesome video of a nasty seabreeze collision that occurred in my area.

Link


Thanks for both links. I've watched a couple of lighting storms on YT from Florida since then lol, actually one recommended was from Myrtle and it was great, ironically the channel is by a guy named Scott.
Another updated bunch of model runs for Ida now shows the storm becoming a remnant low but then a TD again. As usual this season, the models seem to flip flop with every run, with the GFS now being the only one to call for dissipation. They all did 12 hours ago. The NHC is between a rock and a hard place about how to put this out to the public, since they can't change the forecast so drastically every six hours. Time to wait another 12 hours and see what to do then. Geez....

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 22.9N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 23.6N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 24.3N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1200Z 24.3N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0000Z 23.7N 48.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z 22.7N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 22.1N 54.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 22.5N 57.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
302. FOREX
00z GFS is even weaker with potential GOM system. Hardly worth tracking.
Quoting 301. sar2401:

Another updated bunch of model runs for Ida now shows the storm becoming a remnant low but then a TD again. As usual this season, the models seem to flip flop with every run, with the GFS now being the only one to call for dissipation. They all did 12 hours ago. The NHC is between a rock and a hard place about how to put this out to the public, since they can't change the forecast so drastically every six hours. Time to wait another 12 hours and see what to do then. Geez....

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 22.9N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 23.6N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 24.3N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1200Z 24.3N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0000Z 23.7N 48.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z 22.7N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 22.1N 54.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 22.5N 57.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake



Basically the story of the 2015 season thus far. Remember last night I posted something about the GEM pushing Ida west (as the GFS had well before then) but much more intense (as the GEM seems inclined to do with just about every surface low over warm waters), who knows at this point what Ida can pull off. The NHC didn't have Danny as a major in the forecast, while it had Erika as a hurricane in several advisories.

Let's blame ENSO in the meantime lol. But we could be nearing close to a positive half degree centigrade departure from normal on average during the winter in the 3.4 region. 1997 could be equaled or beaten. I think this ENSO and hurricane season will be an important research focus for subsequent years in a warming climate.
Quoting 266. JrWeathermanFL:

why the heck not


Next, Ida will turn north and flatten Bermuda as a cat 2 hurricane. Or, it might turn south and flatten Puerto Rico. I don't know why I even bother looking at models this year. It makes my brain hurt and I end up with no more information than if I tossed the dice...or asked the Magic 8 Ball. Wait a minute. I forgot. We can ask the Magic 8 Ball anything right here. I just asked the Magic 8 Ball if Ida will dissipate, and the Ball said "Most likely, yes". Now we're getting somewhere. I asked the Ball if Ida will become a TS again and Mr. Magic said "YES!". This is just like the models without spending all that time looking at them. I next asked if Ida would flatten Miami. The Ball emphatically said "YES!". You guys down there better get out the plywood now. The Ball is Magic, and never wrong....

I think this season is making me a little punchy.
305. csmda
Quoting 304. sar2401:

The Ball is Magic, and never wrong....


Kinda like my pants!
Quoting 303. win1gamegiantsplease:



Basically the story of the 2015 season thus far. Remember last night I posted something about the GEM pushing Ida west (as the GFS had well before then) but much more intense (as the GEM seems inclined to do with just about every surface low over warm waters), who knows at this point what Ida can pull off. The NHC didn't have Danny as a major in the forecast, while it had Erika as a hurricane in several advisories.

Let's blame ENSO in the meantime lol. But we could be nearing close to a positive half degree centigrade departure from normal on average during the winter in the 3.4 region. 1997 could be equaled or beaten. I think this ENSO and hurricane season will be an important research focus for subsequent years in a warming climate.
I believe it's mostly due to inadequate Magic 8 Ball use at the NHC.

Who the heck knows now? Might not be enough sunspots, or that Yogi Berra died. I'm switching allegiance to the Magic 8 Ball as of now. I can't do worse than the "major" models. :-)
Quoting 305. csmda:



Kinda like my pants!
I wouldn't get too cocky about that....
Quoting 304. sar2401:

Next, Ida will turn north and flatten Bermuda as a cat 2 hurricane. Or, it might turn south and flatten Puerto Rico. I don't know why I even bother looking at models this year. It makes my brain hurt and I end up with no more information than if I tossed the dice...or asked the Magic 8 Ball. Wait a minute. I forgot. We can ask the Magic 8 Ball anything right here. I just asked the Magic 8 Ball if Ida will dissipate, and the Ball said "Most likely, yes". Now we're getting somewhere. I asked the Ball if Ida will become a TS again and Mr. Magic said "YES!". This is just like the models without spending all that time looking at them. I next asked if Ida would flatten Miami. The Ball emphatically said "YES!". You guys down there better get out the plywood now. The Ball is Magic, and never wrong....

I think this season is making me a little punchy.


BAHAHAHA....LMBO
Quoting 306. sar2401:

I believe it's mostly due to inadequate Magic 8 Ball use at the NHC.

Who the heck knows now? Might not be enough sunspots, or that Yogi Berra died. I'm switching allegiance to the Magic 8 Ball as of now. I can't do worse than the "major" models. :-)


My mom called me in tears about Yogi (being a daughter of a Bronx native does that to you I guess), man he was 90. Kirk Douglas is almost 100; Abe Vigoda, Zsa Zsa Gabor, and Maureen O'Hara are all still living. Yogi fared better than when my genes tell me I'll likely be heading ;-)
Raised eyebrow, Vulcan like


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
815 PM CDT Friday Sep 25 2015

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 342 PM CDT Friday Sep 25 2015/

Short term...radar shows that a few very weak showers have begun to
develop under northeast flow coming in to the County Warning Area from southwestern
Mississippi. Coverage appears to be low enough not to merit any
mention in the zones so will keep probability of precipitation below 15 percent. This
activity will likely dissipate within the next few hours as daytime
heating ceases. Another nice and cool night can be expected with
lows in the middle 60s to around 70. Scattered showers will be possible
overnight but generally only in offshore coastal waters. Saturday
looks to be on the dry side as an upper low centered northeast of
the area draws in drier air from the north. So have limited any
mention of probability of precipitation to areas along the coast in Louisiana as the
previous forecast had.

Long term... for Sunday through Monday...an upper level trough is
expected to develop and deepen over south Texas. As this
occurs...tropical moisture will begin to gradually move north into
the northern Gulf Coast. Appreciable rain chances will come into
play beginning Sunday with 20 percent in northwestern zones up to 50 percent
in the coastal waters.

The upper low will slowly drift northeast towards East Texas/west
central Louisiana by Tuesday. Meanwhile...global models suggest that
a surface low of some sort originating around the Yucatan Peninsula
will track north across the central Gulf of Mexico. This feature...
tropical or not...will bring with it quite a plethora of moisture to
the northern Gulf Coast. Rain chances will be the highest along the
coastal areas at a minimum of around 70 percent. Further inland will
be more like 50 percent. Rain chances will continue through middle week
but on a downward trend as the upper trough shifts east.

Meffer
Quoting 292. win1gamegiantsplease:



Funny you say that, only times I've seen rain in Florida were in Orlando back in '02 or so. I went to Miami and Homestead/Key Largo in the dry season and have been to JAX and Nassau County numerous times, no rain not to mention lightning.

Best lightning storm I've seen was the outer bands of Arthur approaching Nags Head, NC last year. At about midnight and over the water, very pretty.


Well I'm sorry that you didn't get any action, but personal anecdotal experience is weird that way, sometimes it doesn't line up at all with what is typical or more likely

From personal experience. I've also been through the southern plains during the spring and never experienced any tornadoes, severe weather, or a single thunderstorm. Yet when I lived in AZ as a kid, my parents have pictures of quarter sized hail along with a funnel cloud. Does that mean AZ sees more severe weather than OK? I think not. I've also been up north several times in the winter but only experienced a brief snow in Michigan while the heaviest snow I've experienced was in in Fayetteville NC, but certainly that doesn't mean Fayetteville NC is snowier than most places up north in the winter.
I could visit one of the rainiest rain forests on earth and not see thunderstorms or any rain during my visit, but I could visit Palm Springs CA or Las Vegas NV and happen to get caught in a rare down pour.

My point is, if you want to gauge weather events in different areas, just look at recorded facts of weather history for a region. Central FL has higher lightning flash density than anywhere else in the U.S. and has more thunderstorm days than any other area as well. Tropical cyclone lightning is much less frequent on average than even the run of the mill afternoon thunderstorm.
On top of that, Hurricane Arthur wasn't noted even for being particularly lightning active for a tropical cyclone from what I'm aware of.

As far as personal experiences, living in Central FL for years, where I live back home we get more power outages from lightning than wind damage or anything else, and we've had 2 trees from lightning damage and a power line fire behind the house from lightning, and we have a small piece if land. I've seen thunderstorms that occasionally are down right terrifying in terms of CG lightning intensity and frequency.

Quoting 309. win1gamegiantsplease:



My mom called me in tears about Yogi (being a daughter of a Bronx native does that to you I guess), man he was 90. Kirk Douglas is almost 100; Abe Vigoda, Zsa Zsa Gabor, and Maureen O'Hara are all still living. Yogi fared better than when my genes tell me I'll likely be heading ;-)
Yeah, I believe Yogi lived a lot longer than I ever will. Kirk Douglas is one of those guys who has looked about the same since he was 50. Maureen O'Hara still looks good for being 95 and having had a stroke. Zsa Zsa, well, who knows how old she actually is, although she has been quite ill with numerous medical problems in recent years. I don't mind living longer as long as my health doesn't get much worse than it is now. I'll have to ask the Magic 8 Ball about that. :-)
Quoting 292. win1gamegiantsplease:



Funny you say that, only times I've seen rain in Florida were in Orlando back in '02 or so. I went to Miami and Homestead/Key Largo in the dry season and have been to JAX and Nassau County numerous times, no rain not to mention lightning.

Best lightning storm I've seen was the outer bands of Arthur approaching Nags Head, NC last year. At about midnight and over the water, very pretty.


Also BTW, to add to the last comment, I've experienced a decent amount of stronger thunderstorms in Central FL even in the winter and spring as well. In fact I've seen at least a few memorably strong thunderstorms in ever month of the year there, even in October and November. They just aren't as frequent because it's mainly fronts being the mechanism during that time of year, and most storm systems end up being well north of the area. But when storm system tracks are much further south, like in the gulf, FL can get whacked with severe thunderstorms and heavy rain. Basically that's the premise for El Nino, storm tracks or more often further south, putting FL frequently in an area of warm moist air, strong lifting and high shear.

In fact one of the the worst thunderstorms I've ever seen any where in my life, Florida or not in Florida, was in the Tampa Bay area on April fools day 2011. Just look up youtube about that day and there is plenty of footage from violent thunderstorms that day. there were numerous severe damages and at least 10 tornadoes touched down in the Tampa Bay area alone. In fact at my parents house, we had tornado warned cell with a notable shear and hook moving right towards us that was tornado warned, I went and got all of us in the closet for safety, thankfully we had no tornado in the neighborhood, but there was a confirmed tornado path of ef1 that would have included our neighborhood but it lifted and touched back down again in the nearby airport.

We didn't escape entirely though, the supercell brought damaging winds that knocked our power out, snapped multiple power poles near by and downed trees and power lines in my area. I estimate we had 60-70 mph gusts based on the rumbling impact of the wind and the tree branched down around outside and the destroyed power poles nearby. There was a confirmed down burst of 105 mph on Indian Rocks beach, and many areas saw severe winds, including the fun and sun air show, where numerous plains were destroyed. Amazingly nobody was killed that I'm aware of at the air show, only injuries.

But yeah, usually the dry season is peaceful, dry, and comfortable weather with an occasional from every week or two bringing a brief squall line of heavy rain or thunderstorms, but usually nothing special. But occasionally even the dry season can get very stormy.
Looks to be a sago palm. King sago I think.

Quoting 281. win1gamegiantsplease:



Just absolute pristine conditions for tc development. Lol.

And that pic you took, what kind of palm is that? Here in NC I've only seen three palms that aren't native to here being grown, Chusan palms, Needle palms, and those short fat trunked ones that have the long fronds. Only Sabal palmetto and Sabal minor are native.


Hawaii...


This time.... true or another ball8 guess?
Quoting 313. sar2401:

Yeah, I believe Yogi lived a lot longer than I ever will. Kirk Douglas is one of those guys who has looked about the same since he was 50. Maureen O'Hara still looks good for being 95 and having had a stroke. Zsa Zsa, well, who knows how old she actually is, although she has been quite ill with numerous medical problems in recent years. I don't mind living longer as long as my health doesn't get much worse than it is now. I'll have to ask the Magic 8 Ball about that. :-)


I agree about the age thing, if there's one thing I remind people, is that a healthy life style won't guarantee a longer life which is more of a chance and genetics thing, but it's very likely to make the later years more enjoyable. We have a lot of people today who are in their 60-80's who have been sick and mostly sedentary since their 40's. Such people wouldn't have survived in the old days. But make no mistake, I'm thankful we can prolong life with modern medicine to those who may not have survived very long in the past, but it can be a curse in addition to being a blessing.



Maybe the most active JMO in our region this year
Grew up in Tomahawk, WI.
Been living in SW FL since 1978. Been though a few hurricanes but this is the worst storm I have been through.

Independence Day 1977 Downbursts

On July 4, 1977, a severe thunderstorm complex moved across northern Wisconsin, and produced extreme damage to trees and properties. The hardest hit areas included Sawyer, Price and Oneida counties. Burnett, Washburn, northeast Rusk and northern Lincoln counties were also affected by the severe storm.


The damage was described like that of an oversized tornado. In fact, the 166 mile long and up to 17 mile wide swath of damage was caused by straight-line winds of the thunderstorm complex, that first hit at about 1:15 pm (CDT). Winds likely exceeded 115 mph in Sawyer county. A large section of the Flambeau State Forest, including trees four feet in diameter, were flattened. One person was killed in a camper and eight injuries were reported in Sawyer county.

The city of Phillips in Price county was especially hard hit. Thirty homes were destroyed and most buildings in the area sustained some damage. An anemometer at the Phillips airport recorded a 100 mph wind before it blew away. In Price county alone, 172,000 acres of forest was destroyed or badly damaged. Twenty injuries were reported in the county.

In Oneida county, eight homes were badly damaged and seven injuries were reported. The winds reached 100 mph at the Rhinelander airport at about 3:30 pm before the instruments blew away. 200,000 acres of forest sustained damage in Oneida county.

The ferocious storm resulted in over $24 million in damage (1977 dollars), one death and 35 injuries.

The storm damage from the July 4, 1977 storm was intensely researched by the world renowned tornado researcher, Dr. Ted Fujita. Through his studies of this and similar storms in the late 1970s, Fujita was able to prove his theory that thunderstorm "downbursts" could cause considerable damage near and at the ground, and pose a significant hazard to aircraft.
Quoting 234. FunnelVortex:



Bring it on!
Bring on the cold please


Why is this labeled 98 when it looks like Ida?
not liking this forcast
00 Z GFS isn't showing much for the Low in the Yucatan as it moves North in the GOMEX.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ida, located a little more than 1000 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands.

1. A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
Yucatan Peninsula, and northern portions of Central America. This
system is expected to reach the southern Gulf of Mexico during the
next day or two, and it will begin to interact with an upper-level
low located near the Texas coast. This interaction will likely
lead to the development of a broad and complex area of low pressure
that moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, but
environmental conditions are not expected to be particularly
conducive for this system to become a tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

2. Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms over the western
Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda are
associated with an upper-level low and a surface trough.
Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur
while it moves slowly toward the north or north-northwest. Upper-
level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for development after
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Berg
we'll have to wait till maybe sunday night and then see whats going on,everything is up in the air right now,model wise.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of low pressure is located about 400 miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this
system are gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the
low moves northward at about 5 mph. Interests along the southern
coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. A small low pressure system is producing a concentrated area of
showers and thunderstorms that extend about 100 miles off the
coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. The low is expected to
move little or drift westward during the next couple of days, and
further development appears unlikely due to its proximity to land
and unfavorable upper-level winds. Regardless of tropical cyclone
development, this system will continue to produce heavy rains across
portions of El Salvador, southern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico
during the next few days, along with gusty winds along the coast.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

3. An area of low pressure could form early next week about 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Some gradual development of this system is possible later next week
while it moves slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Quoting 322. K8eCane:



Why is this labeled 98 when it looks like Ida?
i want to hear people opinions on this years winter forecast personally I think it's going to be below average in the south average in the north and above average out west what do yall think?
maybe invest 99L SOON
Quoting 333. hurricanes2018:


Looks like we should keep an eye on Ida until she really dies out,especially those along the east coast huh
CMC might be seeing 98 coming close to florida in about 4-5 days............................
98=leftovers.of.td9?
This is off topic but I was wondering if anyone had an opinion on this strange thing that happens often when an offshore storm approaches our area from the southwest. I'm in Gulfport/Biloxi, ms and when watching radar, often is the case that a storm will approach very strong but part right over our area and regroup just north and east of us. Not saying we never get rain but it's a common scenario and friends 30 miles to the east and west always get the rain. My best guess is that all the concrete from keesler afb and the regional airport being so close together, produce enough radiant heat to displace the moisture. This happens often. Does this make sense?
sandcat all that concrete is great for skateboarding but it warms up the surrounding areas.
Quoting 341. islander101010:

sandcat all that concrete is great for skateboarding but it warms up the surrounding areas.
That was what I was thinking. I grew up in Pascagoula and it rains there plenty (30 miles east). It's a lot of concrete here and it's really funny to watch a radar loop most of the time. If weather is coming from the north it doesn't happen as often but coming in off the gulf it will be storming just to the east and west and north at 1-10 which is only 5 miles north.
343. FOREX
6z GFS GOM potential system a sloppy mess a few days out. Basically a two or three day moderate to heavy rain event with minor flooding in low lying and coastal areas possible. Wind threat looks very low at this time.
Quoting 343. FOREX:

6z GFS GOM potential system a sloppy mess a few days out. Basically a two or three day moderate to heavy rain event with minor flooding in low lying and coastal areas possible. Wind threat looks very low at this time.
It doesn't look anything like the models from three days ago that's for sure. But I'll take some rain
Quoting 338. LargoFl:

CMC might be seeing 98 coming close to florida in about 4-5 days............................


Ore Ida
Wow I think the wundermap data base is gone haywire. Just clicked on the computer models for 92E and got this

Link

Check out the dates and pressures -999..........spooky.
Quoting 322. K8eCane:



Why is this labeled 98 when it looks like Ida?


Be cautious with some of the maps. Timestamp is from 0z on August 25th. Looks like a plot from what became TS Erika.
Quoting 347. StAugustineFL:



Be cautious with some of the maps. Timestamp is from 0z on August 25th. Looks like a plot from what became TS Erika.


Ohhhh....Gotcha!
Quoting 310. Patrap:

Raised eyebrow, Vulcan like



That is why I watch,....carefully.......the gulf....and west car......always.........I should say if the blob rides north along the coast.....could have a problem down the road a piece....
Quoting 345. K8eCane:



Ore Ida
LOL nice one!!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 26 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located about 400 miles south-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico, has changed little in organization overnight. However,
environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so
while the low moves northward at about 5 mph. Interests along the
southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ida, located a little more than 1000 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands.

A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
the Yucatan Peninsula, and northern portions of Central America.
This system is expected to reach the southern Gulf of Mexico later
this weekend, and will begin to interact with an upper-level low
located near the Texas coast. This interaction should result in the
development of a broad and complex area of low pressure that moves
northward over the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Although
environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for
tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance is likely to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf coast and
southeastern United States early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western Atlantic
Ocean several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda are
associated with an upper-level low and a surface trough.
Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur
while it moves toward the north or north-northwest. Upper-level
winds are forecast to become unfavorable for development after
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kimberlain
Quoting 318. Jedkins01:



I agree about the age thing, if there's one thing I remind people, is that a healthy life style won't guarantee a longer life which is more of a chance and genetics thing, but it's very likely to make the later years more enjoyable. We have a lot of people today who are in their 60-80's who have been sick and mostly sedentary since their 40's. Such people wouldn't have survived in the old days. But make no mistake, I'm thankful we can prolong life with modern medicine to those who may not have survived very long in the past, but it can be a curse in addition to being a blessing.


I post this to show that early major snowstorms can and do form during strong El-Nino episodes.


Saturday 25 October 1997


The upper low peaked in intensity and became vertically stacked as it began moving out across the southern Plains and eventually accelerating toward the Great Lakes region. Conditions gradually improved over Colorado as the strongest dynamics shifted to the central Plains. The increased forward speed of the system led to lesser snow accumulations, but localized areas of heavy snow occurred in conjunction with elevated convection over parts of Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan.


Good morning Jed. I would like to make a comment here if Its O.K. While its true that a healthy lifestyle will not guarantee a longer life, it does help. It is now proven that diet, proper rest, exercise, and a method to reduce stress has a positive affect on mind and body. I studied this extensively due to health concerns of my own. Diet is probably the single best thing a person can do for the body. One can do miracles by eating and drinking Herbs, spices, fruits, veggies, fish, chicken. I can write pages on this stuff. Studied biology when in college and really liked it...I love all science...
NHC has been reading this blog..

000
WTNT35 KNHC 260850
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
500 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2015

...IDA TENACIOUSLY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
Southwesterly shear has hit Niala. While the center should pass south of Hawaii, you can tell the moisture is going to get pushed up towards the Big Island. 6-12" of rain are forecast.

From the NHC discussion:

Ida's future during the next several days is highly uncertain.
SHIPS environmental parameters suggest that the worst might be over.
The vertical shear that has been affecting the cyclone could
actually decrease gradually during the next couple of days, and sea
surface temperatures are forecast to remain at least 29 degrees
Celsius. Therefore, it is not a sure bet that the system will cease
producing organized deep convection, which is a necessary condition
for the cyclone to be declared a remnant low. A more likely
scenario would be that the circulation becomes elongated, the center
becomes ill defined, and Ida dissipates. Therefore, the NHC
official forecast no longer shows Ida becoming a remnant low,
keeping it as a depression for the next five days. However, Ida
could also dissipate at any time if it no longer shows signs of a
well-defined center of circulation, as is suggested by the GFS in a
couple of days. But, it bears repeating: this is a very uncertain
forecast.
Quoting 356. LargoFl:


doom!!

watch out Southwesterly shear has hit Niala
Quoting 362. ncstorm:

From the NHC discussion:

Ida's future during the next several days is highly uncertain.
SHIPS environmental parameters suggest that the worst might be over.
The vertical shear that has been affecting the cyclone could
actually decrease gradually during the next couple of days, and sea
surface temperatures are forecast to remain at least 29 degrees
Celsius. Therefore, it is not a sure bet that the system will cease
producing organized deep convection, which is a necessary condition
for the cyclone to be declared a remnant low. A more likely
scenario would be that the circulation becomes elongated, the center
becomes ill defined, and Ida dissipates. Therefore, the NHC
official forecast no longer shows Ida becoming a remnant low,
keeping it as a depression for the next five days. However, Ida
could also dissipate at any time if it no longer shows signs of a
well-defined center of circulation, as is suggested by the GFS in a
couple of days. But, it bears repeating: this is a very uncertain
forecast.



It might be too early for me on a Saturday morning but isn't this part of the NHC discussion contradictory? Not directing my inquiry towards you but just making a general observation.

"A more likely
scenario would be that the circulation becomes elongated, the center
becomes ill defined, and Ida dissipates. Therefore, the NHC
official forecast no longer shows Ida becoming a remnant low,
keeping it as a depression for the next five days."
would not be surprised if our nw carib becomes more organized while over land

Quoting 351. hydrus:

That is why I watch,....carefully.......the gulf....and west car......always.........I should say if the blob rides north along the coast.....could have a problem down the road a piece....
The only issue this future system will bring is rain. 
Quoting 324. canehater1:

00 Z GFS isn't showing much for the Low in the Yucatan as it moves North in the GOMEX.


It appears that we won't see any development in the GOM. Just a large area of rain heading into the northern GOM. Wind shear is king this year.
Quoting 368. islander101010:

would not be surprised if our nw carib becomes more organized while over land


I say it stays offshore in the NW Caribbean and becomes more organised and makes its way N
The joys of watching the CMC casting it's DOOM spell on the east coast of Florida.
If it can become more organised in the NW Carib the Gulf states should look out for a bigger stronger system
374. FOREX
Quoting 372. hurricanewatcher61:

The joys of watching the CMC casting it's DOOM spell on the east coast of Florida.
Yes, the Mods should really crack down on bloggers posting that model. It is not a tropical model. Might as well post ground motion along the San Andreas to predict development in the Gulf.
Waiting for the first visible loops of the Gulf...Time to clean gutters out check the rain gauge its on the fritz...
Good morning

The Yucatan low is presently onshore with all the heavy rain sheared off just offshore. A slow Northward drift is apparent.

Euro is showing no end to the Rainy Season anytime soon across FL. Big time rainfall amounts being forecasted by some of the Global models for FL as this NW Caribbean disturbance moves closer than originally thought to the West Coast of FL.

Quoting 374. FOREX:

Yes, the Mods should really crack down on bloggers posting that model. It is not a tropical model. Might as well post ground motion along the San Andreas to predict development in the Gulf.

Mods should crack down on people posting a weather model on a weather blog? Right..
380. FOREX
Quoting 378. LiveToFish0430:


Mods should crack down on people posting a weather model on a weather blog? Right..
You missed my point. You should familiarize yourself with each models strengths and weaknesses.
Quoting 380. FOREX:

You missed my point. You should familiarize yourself with each models strengths and weaknesses.
Its a weather model. Who cares if they post it. We all know its never right....
382. FOREX
Quoting 381. Camerooski:

Its a weather model. Who cares if they post it. We all know its never right....
Guess I'm in the minority on this one so I'll let it go. No big deal.
Quoting 374. FOREX:

Yes, the Mods should really crack down on bloggers posting that model. It is not a tropical model. Might as well post ground motion along the San Andreas to predict development in the Gulf.
better yet,some folks should stop..coming in here telling others what they can and cannot post..if THAT happened..this would be a much friendlier blog.
CFS @ 72 hours..

Ida ;)

386. FOREX
Quoting 383. LargoFl:

better yet,some folks should stop..coming in here telling others what they can and cannot post..if THAT happened..this would be a much friendlier blog.
Wow, Well just keep in mind that not everyone that visits this blog is an expert like you. Some may be first time visitors looking for information and when they see a non tropical model showing a CAT 5 coming to their doorstep when LargoFl knows it is only going to be a depression, well that isn't really fair is it? The World does not revolve around the experts here, though you might think it does.
Euro and CMC have a LOW right off Florida's east coast around Oct 1st.....................................
I know I am sticking my neck out in this one and probably be crucified for it, but two things. 1. Seeing the upper level flow in the GOM SW-NE with an Upper Level Low situated in the Central/Western Gulf I don't understand how the Tropical Low could be forecasted to track in that region. The Eastern GOM looks more likely, perhaps West Florida or the Eastern Panhandle. The strength will determine exact path in relation to the shear, more east = stronger system, more west well u know. 2 Remnants of IDA or Invest 98 - There has been persistent High Pressure over Southeast Canada and the Northeast U.S. for it seems like forever, and its a sprawling Ridge to boot. I might be wrong and will probably be but I don't see this one escaping the the North and East. This Ridge or anti-cyclone seems anchored here for the next 7-10 days maybe more. I think the Entire East Coast has to watch this.
I know that Ida is in dry air, but is there any shear affecting her? I looked at the shear map and saw 5-10 knots of shear, but I'm confused because the convection keeps getting blown to the East?
Is it just me, or does our Caribbean low looks better organized, along with 98L???
391. FOREX
Quoting 387. LargoFl:

Euro and CMC have a LOW right off Florida's east coast around Oct 1st.....................................
I wasn't trying to be rude and hope we can still be friends. I really enjoy reading your posts each day. Can we leave this in the past please?
392. FOREX
Quoting 390. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Is it just me, or does our Caribbean low looks better organized, along with 98L???
Thought that myself, the Carbbean low does seem to be organizing, lol. Will be interesting to see things this time tomorrow.
SHIPS not developing GOM system, relentless shear.


SHEAR (KT) 31 33 37 42 40 40 44 51 37 28 30 32 28
Significant intensification of already a 2.3C El-Nino coming as strong Westerly Wind Burst move east toward South America. Very interested to see what the max is going to be in a couple of months as by the looks of this a 3C ENSO isn't out of the question anymore.

Quoting 386. FOREX:

Wow, Well just keep in mind that not everyone that visits this blog is an expert like you. Some may be first time visitors looking for information and when they see a non tropical model showing a CAT 5 coming to their doorstep when LargoFl knows it is only going to be a depression, well that isn't really fair is it? The World does not revolve around the experts here, though you might think it does.First Time visitors would not know the difference between a cat 5 and a tropical low so i say keep posting even the other models sometimes blow storms out of perportion .   Let me remind you that a newbie here would not know the diffrence between a cat 5 and a depression if they try to read models

Quoting 389. Camerooski:

I know that Ida is in dry air, but is there any shear affecting her? I looked at the shear map and saw 5-10 knots of shear, but I'm confused because the convection keeps getting blown to the East?

Actually she is still being affected by about 20-30 knts of shear... as she moves NW, and then SW again, conditions could become a little more favorable for redevelopment. It's interesting enough that NHC keeps Ida as a weak depression through the remaining forecast period.
There's the shear map, as you can see upper level conditions become more favorable, in terms of shear and moisture supply. WHEN AND IF Ida makes it near the Bahamas, I would be more worried about that.
There's the current 5-day forecast.... NW,then a turn towards the SW. Here's NHC's discussion for more reference.
000
WTNT45 KNHC 260853
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
500 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2015

Despite continued westerly shear and abundant dry air in the middle
and upper levels of the atmosphere, Ida continues to produce a
persistent cluster of deep convection to the east of its center.
The intensity remains 30 kt based on ASCAT data from last evening.

Ida's future during the next several days is highly uncertain.
SHIPS environmental parameters suggest that the worst might be over.
The vertical shear that has been affecting the cyclone could
actually decrease gradually during the next couple of days, and sea
surface temperatures are forecast to remain at least 29 degrees
Celsius. Therefore, it is not a sure bet that the system will cease
producing organized deep convection, which is a necessary condition
for the cyclone to be declared a remnant low. A more likely
scenario would be that the circulation becomes elongated, the center
becomes ill defined, and Ida dissipates. Therefore, the NHC
official forecast no longer shows Ida becoming a remnant low,
keeping it as a depression for the next five days. However, Ida
could also dissipate at any time if it no longer shows signs of a
well-defined center of circulation, as is suggested by the GFS in a
couple of days. But, it bears repeating: this is a very uncertain
forecast.

Ida is being steered northwestward, or 325/7 kt, by a low-level
ridge to its northeast. However, the depression is approaching a
break in the ridge, and a stronger ridge is expected to slide
eastward from New England to the north Atlantic over the next few
days. This pattern change should cause Ida to slow down during the
next 24 hours and then move westward or west-southwestward at a
faster speed during the remainder of the forecast period. The
updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, except
that it is a little faster beyond 48 hours to be close to the
various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 23.4N 46.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 24.0N 46.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 24.4N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 24.2N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 23.6N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 22.6N 53.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 22.5N 58.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 23.0N 61.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

It bears watching,however.
Intensity guidance for Ida and 98L,
mmm? I wonder if our gulf low will move a little to the right then expected? It does seem to have a north movement.
Link

I have tried to delete this link and it keeps coming back...sorryyyyyy
Quoting 397. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Intensity guidance for Ida and 98L,



Looks like they both will be on the upswing
402. IKE
The no-invest just east of the Yucatan has a spin to it. Looks like a heavy rain event from what the models show me. Ida is still spinning along but the spin seems more broad this morning.

Good morning from NW Florida. Listening to The Rappers Delight. Second pot of coffee set to start.
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992015) 20150926 1200 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.0N LONCUR = 88.7W DIRCUR = 355DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 17.9N LONM12 = 88.6W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 88.4W
WNDCUR = 15KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


404. IKE
well.....now it's an invest.....
99L is now located near the Eastern Yucatan and NW Caribbean. Will be interesting to see what happens as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico~~!! The US North Central and NE Gulf Coast needs to keep an eye on this system.
Quoting 402. IKE:

The no-invest just east of the Yucatan has a spin to it. Looks like a heavy rain event from what the models show me. Ida is still spinning along but the spin seems more broad this morning.

Good morning from NW Florida. Listening to The Rappers Delight. Second pot of coffee set to start.
Good morning Ike.. If the Yucatan system moves in the same direction as the shear, my guess is it may get a bit strong then what the models shows. Could get a weak to moderate tropical storm...jmo
I see the spin on the coast, but something else is going on just off the coast.
Quoting 402. IKE:

The no-invest just east of the Yucatan has a spin to it. Looks like a heavy rain event from what the models show me. Ida is still spinning along but the spin seems more broad this morning.

Good morning from NW Florida. Listening to The Rappers Delight. Second pot of coffee set to start.
Very noticeable broad circulation across the Yucatan.
But shear is just ripping across the GOM, so its got a difficult battle a head of it.

you guys need too have other look at them models on the other hand with a strong EL Nino in place and giving this time of year am really finding it hard too see any more name storms for the Atlantic gulf and
Caribbean Sea nothing is going to be upswing if any thing its going too be down swing wind shear is vary unfavorable in the gulf so you wont see march of any thing there and vary unfavorable in the caribbean sea there may be a few pockets of lower shear in the Atlantic around 98L but that is forecast too be come unfavorable has well the window for any one name storm is the Atlantic is closeing fast if you want too track any more name storms this sea the best place will be the E PAC C PAC and W PAC has the Atlantic looks too be on the way too be closing its doors

Quoting 399. K8eCane:

Link

I have tried to delete this link and it keeps coming back...sorryyyyyy


That's OK man.....just have some "fun w/ captions" --> From L to R: Niala, 98L, 93E, Ida & 99L
412. IKE
We'll see what happens. Looking at visible each updated frame. Sunny here this morning in Defuniak Springs, Fl. Cool this morning. Looks like the humidity starts up with 99L moving north.
99L, That didn't take long!
Quoting 410. Tazmanian:

you guys need too have other look at them models on the other hand with a strong EL Nino in place and giving this time of year am really finding it hard too see any more name storms for the Atlantic gulf and
Caribbean Sea nothing is going to be upswing if any thing its going too be down swing wind shear is vary unfavorable in the gulf so you wont see march of any thing there and vary unfavorable in the caribbean sea there may be a few pockets of lower shear in the Atlantic around 98L but that is forecast too be come unfavorable has well the window for any one name storm is the Atlantic is closeing fast if you want too track any more name storms this sea the best place will be the E PAC C PAC and W PAC has the Atlantic looks too be on the way too be closing its doors



Whatever, you said this all year. Now YOU AND YOU ONLY can go to the Pacific and track.
Quoting 411. KuCommando:



That's OK man.....just have some "fun w/ captions" --> From L to R: Niala, 98L, 93E, Ida & 99L


BAHAHA...THats funny! I just learned how to post pictures here. Didnt know i could link. Didnt mean to link the pic. Sure dont know how to do captions yet :-(
Quoting 402. IKE:

The no-invest just east of the Yucatan has a spin to it. Looks like a heavy rain event from what the models show me. Ida is still spinning along but the spin seems more broad this morning.

Good morning from NW Florida. Listening to The Rappers Delight. Second pot of coffee set to start.
Morning Ike... haven't even thought about Rappers' Delight in years.... :-)

Just got up, and I NEED that first cup of coffee.....

You also said  the Atlantic was shut down for the year long before Danny. You are  a joker man.
Quoting 410. Tazmanian:

you guys need too have other look at them models on the other hand with a strong EL Nino in place and giving this time of year am really finding it hard too see any more name storms for the Atlantic gulf and
Caribbean Sea nothing is going to be upswing if any thing its going too be down swing wind shear is vary unfavorable in the gulf so you wont see march of any thing there and vary unfavorable in the caribbean sea there may be a few pockets of lower shear in the Atlantic around 98L but that is forecast too be come unfavorable has well the window for any one name storm is the Atlantic is closeing fast if you want too track any more name storms this sea the best place will be the E PAC C PAC and W PAC has the Atlantic looks too be on the way too be closing its doors



Quoting 412. IKE:

We'll see what happens. Looking at visible each updated frame. Sunny here this morning in Defuniak Springs, Fl. Cool this morning. Looks like the humidity starts up with 99L moving north.


How's it going Ike? I'm back in the Milton area, Lord knows we need some rain around here.
Quoting 410. Tazmanian:

you guys need too have other look at them models on the other hand with a strong EL Nino in place and giving this time of year am really finding it hard too see any more name storms for the Atlantic gulf and
Caribbean Sea nothing is going to be upswing if any thing its going too be down swing wind shear is vary unfavorable in the gulf so you wont see march of any thing there and vary unfavorable in the caribbean sea there may be a few pockets of lower shear in the Atlantic around 98L but that is forecast too be come unfavorable has well the window for any one name storm is the Atlantic is closeing fast if you want too track any more name storms this sea the best place will be the E PAC C PAC and W PAC has the Atlantic looks too be on the way too be closing its doors


I still think we should expect up to 3 more named storms in the ATL, albeit just as weak and sheared as the ones we've already had.

I'd say one of the invests out there now will likely make it to TS, and I expect one or two more in October. Any real hurricanes are more likely to show up in the EPac, I agree.
According to the latest run of the 12z NAM, 98L's moisture will feed into NC on top of the rainy pattern we are already in..



and if 99L happens to go NE as some models are predicting, more rain on top of that for NC..

Deluge to the 10th power..

and then there is Ida..yeah, I'm making this all about NC :)

I think 99L is just off the coast which should help it keep a tighter circulation, also the models have it over the Yucatan but it is in fact off the coast. Also they say that it is moving WNW-NW but it looks more N
Quoting 422. ncstorm:

According to the latest run of the 12z NAM, 98L's moisture will feed into NC on top of the rainy pattern we are already in..



and if 99L happens to go NE as some models are predicting, more rain on top of that for NC..

Deluge to the 10th power..

and then there is Ida..yeah, I'm making this all about NC :)




Im a little concerned that we might get another deluge from 99. They were mentioning that on NWS disco
Quoting 418. 2manytimes:

You also said the Atlantic was shut down for the year long before Danny. You are a joker man.



And then he said not too long ago that the epac may not be as busy as noaa expects. He needs to make up his mind.
Quoting 424. K8eCane:



Im a little concerned that we might get another deluge from 99. They were mentioning that on NWS disco


As our NWS said so eloquently yesterday, say goodbye to the Sun AND the Moon..it will be a while before we see them again..
Quoting 420. BahaHurican:

I still think we should expect up to 3 more named storms in the ATL, albeit just as weak and sheared as the ones we've already had.

I'd say one of the invests out there now will likely make it to TS, and I expect one or two more in October. Any real hurricanes are more likely to show up in the EPac, I agree.


I could use another remnant tropical low into Soo Cal.......even a weak Tropical Storm would be welcome.
Wasnt what is now 99L supposed to be over the Yucatan at this latitude? I think overall this system is forming further east than forecast.
Quoting 391. FOREX:

I wasn't trying to be rude and hope we can still be friends. I really enjoy reading your posts each day. Can we leave this in the past please?
ok
430. IKE
Quoting 419. PanhandleChuck:



How's it going Ike? I'm back in the Milton area, Lord knows we need some rain around here.


Doing well.
Zero worries from me in regards to 99L. High wind shear will likely keep this one in check from developing into anything beyond a weak-TS. However, there is a threat of heavy rain across the Gulf Coast. Saturated areas such as FL should be on guard for yet another onslaught of rain.
Quoting 431. CybrTeddy:

Zero worries from me in regards to 99L. High wind shear will likely keep this one in check from developing into anything beyond a weak-TS. However, there is a threat of heavy rain across the Gulf Coast. Saturated areas such as FL should be on guard for yet another onslaught of rain.


This one since it is coming from the deep tropics should easily have plenty of moisture to work with. I personally think most of the rain is going to occur over Florida. Yes, I am from Florida, but these systems are lopsided to the East and it appears to me that this system will be a bit further east than the forecast shows
433. IKE
NAM has 99L(whatever form), making landfall around Mobile.
434. FOREX
Well between 99L forming and College football today, even though my team played last night, today is a very exciting day.
Good morning

It's 88, feeling like 98, with a few clouds above here on the island today.

It was a beautiful morning for the 5 km run/walk fundraiser for "Make a Wish Foundation". Had a great time for a great cause!

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy

*shoots a spitball at Joe* - it's the surprise element that works ;-)
Quoting 422. ncstorm:

According to the latest run of the 12z NAM, 98L's moisture will feed into NC on top of the rainy pattern we are already in..



and if 99L happens to go NE as some models are predicting, more rain on top of that for NC..

Deluge to the 10th power..

and then there is Ida..yeah, I'm making this all about NC :)


Morning NC. Some years it is all N.C. From 1950 to 1979, at least 79 tropical cyclones affected North Carolina. From 1900 to 1949, with at least 75.....North Carolina certainly in the hurricane belt.
438. MahFL
Quoting 389. Camerooski:

I know that Ida is in dry air, but is there any shear affecting her? I looked at the shear map and saw 5-10 knots of shear, but I'm confused because the convection keeps getting blown to the East?


There is obviously more than 5 kts of shear affecting Ida, the shear maps are not 100 % accurate.
Quoting 422. ncstorm:

According to the latest run of the 12z NAM, 98L's moisture will feed into NC on top of the rainy pattern we are already in..



and if 99L happens to go NE as some models are predicting, more rain on top of that for NC..

Deluge to the 10th power..

and then there is Ida..yeah, I'm making this all about NC :)


True, but not invalid... I was just thinking that if everything goes north, the Bahamas would be in the clear, which means more rain for your area...

In any case, it seems like there is a lot of jostling for position going on out there right now ....
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 436. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good morning

It's 88, feeling like 98, with a few clouds above here on the island today.

It was a beautiful morning for the 5 km run/walk fundraiser for "Make a Wish Foundation". Had a great time for a great cause!

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy

*shoots a spitball at Joe* - it's the surprise element that works ;-)
Morning... was just thinking about you guys and wondering what the rain - drought status is... course one would hope it doesn't rain on the run-walk morning.... :-)
442. MahFL
99L has two things going for it, plenty of moisture and hot water :



Quoting 435. GeoffreyWPB:


This is in accurate because 99L is off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Quoting 442. MahFL:

99L has two things going for it, plenty of moisture and hot water :




2 and a half maybe...Should be able to ventilate well...Especially if the upper low moves NW a little.
Quoting 443. Camerooski:

This is in accurate because 99L is off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Greetings Cam..The low the NHC is tracking is over the Eastern Yucatan..That is not to say that the dominant low cannot form under the convection offshore.
Quoting 436. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good morning

It's 88, feeling like 98, with a few clouds above here on the island today.

It was a beautiful morning for the 5 km run/walk fundraiser for "Make a Wish Foundation". Had a great time for a great cause!

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy

*shoots a spitball at Joe* - it's the surprise element that works ;-)


Rubs welt on head........you sure that was a spitball? Hope you getting some rain! We have had a wet summer in Soo Cal, setting records for May, July and #2 September. Rainfall record for summer June21-Sept21 was set in San Diego with 3 inches and rain since May1 approaching 6 inches. Normal yearly rainfall in San Diego is 9.90 inches.

Quoting 436. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good morning

It's 88, feeling like 98, with a few clouds above here on the island today.

It was a beautiful morning for the 5 km run/walk fundraiser for "Make a Wish Foundation". Had a great time for a great cause!

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy

*shoots a spitball at Joe* - it's the surprise element that works ;-)


Rubs welt on head........you sure that was a spitball? Hope you getting some rain! We have had a wet summer in Soo Cal, setting records for May, July and #2 September. Rainfall record for summer June21-Sept21 was set in San Diego with 3 inches and rain since May1 approaching 6 inches. Normal yearly rainfall in San Diego is 9.90 inches.
Quoting 398. hurricanewatcher61:

mmm? I wonder if our gulf low will move a little to the right then expected? It does seem to have a north movement.
449. vis0
too many grammatical error posting again with 50% less errors yes YOU SAVE 50% head scratching!
450. vis0
20150925_Charleston,NC-SATellite-imgs  (each img ~1MB, were
orgnly 5MB)

join them to make a AniGif** watch how at least 3 different
levels of wind directions come together over the Carolinas (most interesting TO
ME is a long feed from hundreds of miles off shore watch individual bright
clouds specs move from about 35° LAT & between 75° & 80° LONG (where at
~80° LONG they hide under taller clouds) moving towards the Carolinas at 265°.
DO NOT CONFUSE that those cloud specs "twinkle" in a successive motion as
that twinkle (FTG showing even mini clouds building and being sheared or
collapsing) makes one think they are moving fast as when a Broadway marquee's
lights is set to have lights alternate in one direction.  Stay focused after the
twinkling goes down to see the collapsed mini cloud (gray instead of bright)
moving westward.

(had 6 more imgs but fell asleep & upload connection
disconnected, might upload the rest Sun AM, tomorrow)

ALWAYS DO A
MALWARE CHECK when downloading files.
Remember if you like the APPS donate
something..monetary [joke] not socks, Dakster.[joke]
When creating animations
some programs need the files to be sequentially numbered or if you are Patrap (i
think) and creates long animations/VIDs of the tropical season try 2 FAV
software (both free) that rename files. Lopesoft (FilemenuTools, it has of
feature that i prefer not to tick or accept and that is to show ALL extensions,
just click no and see if the program feature YOU use still work. If by accident
you select YES show ALL extensions IN windows just open any folder see your
folders toolbar where it reads TOOLS(click that & drop down menu
has)>FOLDER OPTIONS>VIEW...in the many choices scroll to "hide
extensions for known file types
" ticking  that ON, resets it so you only see
the extensions of unknown file types.
A recent (~yr) FAV is ANT RENAMER (patrap might like
this) it can reposition a title so one can bring to the front the date for
better organization or via an auto program have  ANT-R rename as one downloads a
file  (that can be done with other renaming apps but the renaming choices are
easier with Ant-R) For the aforementioned try this batch file "rules" from ANT
RENAME's (ANT-R) choice select "MOVE STRING"  then TICK "from END" on both choices,
enter in position "0", in NUMBER OF CHARACTERS 13 (as in 20150926-1200 has 13
characters), in POSITION enter a big number 'cause once ANT-R reaches the
beginning point it places the moved characters there so i needed just 30 but to
be safe entered "60". So a file that downloaded
"NOAA(satellitenumberhere)(typeOf SatHere)201509-261200"
became
"201509-261200NOAA(satellitenumberhere)(typeOf SatHere)"
and being that the
date or download date is sequential as opposed to random numbers i can easily
make my own animation afterwards. To create "batch" rules in ANT-R just find the
4 mini square icon that reads "ADD ACTION TO BATCH" when you hover over that ANT-R tolbar icon.