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Heavy Rain, Strong Winds for Southeast U.S. Coast; TD 16-E Remnants Drench Omaha

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:38 PM GMT on September 24, 2015

An elongated area of disturbed weather along the Southeast U.S. coast from Georgia to North Carolina is bringing heavy rains to the coast, but is not a danger to become a tropical storm due to high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots. However, the storm's impact will be similar to that of a weak tropical storm, with heavy rains of up to 5" predicted along the North Carolina coast and strong onshore winds that will bring battering waves and flooding. Long range radar out of Charleston, SC is showing that an area of low pressure (formerly tracked as Invest 97L by NHC) is moving slowly towards the coast, bringing heavy rain. This low will move ashore over South Carolina by Friday. Farther to the north, the Outer Banks of North Carolina are under a High Surf Advisory for waves of 6 - 9 feet; a storm surge of 2 - 3 feet is expected to potentially cause overwash on the only road connecting the vulnerable barrier islands to the mainland, U.S. Highway 12.


Figure 1. Latest regional radar image for the Southeast U.S.


TD 16E remnants help drench Omaha
After bringing heavy rains to parts of the Arizona/New Mexico desert, the remnants of Tropical Depression 16E joined forces with an upper-level trough to produce one of the wettest days in the history of the Omaha, Nebraska area. The heaviest complex of thunderstorms—which developed just northeast of the approaching 16E remnants--parked across the Missouri Valley of Nebraska and Iowa, dumping huge amounts of rain in a fairly localized area over the early morning hours on Wednesday. Omaha’s Eppley Airfield picked up 3.75” in just four hours, and a WU personal weather station in Council Bluffs, Iowa, notched 7.88” in six hours. Lighter showers and storms persisted into Thursday morning along the same corridor, while upper-level energy associated with the 16E remnants evolved into an apparent mesoscale convective vortex across Nebraska and South Dakota. Using NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model, which analyzes the source of air masses at various heights, weather.com's Nick Wiltgen found that the upper-level moisture associated with these rains was clearly related to TD 16E, while lower-level moisture came mainly from the Gulf of Mexico and other sources.

Omaha’s calendar-day rainfall on Wednesday totaled 5.74”, making it the fourth-wettest day in the city’s weather history going back to 1871. Impressive amounts of rain also fell in north-central Nebraska and south-central South Dakota, where CoCoRaHS reports ranged as high as 5.95” in southeast Lyman County, SD. It was still raining lightly in Omaha on Thursday morning, with another 0.21” falling between midnight to 10 am CDT. The wettest calendar day on record in Omaha was August 7, 1999, when 6.46” fell, while the total of 10.48” on August 6-7 was the city’s biggest soaking in any 24-hour period. There were no reports of major flood damage in the Omaha/Council Bluffs area on Wednesday, although many residents had to deal with partially submerged vehicles.


Figure 2. The Omaha-area NWS NEXRAD radar at 6:58 am Wednesday, September 22, shows an intense complex of thunderstorms focused across the Omaha metropolitan area. Image credit: NCAR/RAL Real-Time Weather Data.


Figure 3. Rainfall on Wednesday, September 22, at a wunderground PWS in Council Bluffs, Iowa, totaled 8.28”, with another 0.22” (not shown) falling on Thursday as of 10:30 am CDT.


Figure 4. In Ottosen, Iowa, intense thunderstorms extending toward central Iowa from the Missouri Valley on Wednesday morning, September 23, 2015, led to what wunderphotographer Zeman88 dubbed “easily the best sunrise I have ever seen on my way to work as it filled nearly the entire eastern sky.” Image credit: wunderphotographer zeman88.



Figure 5. Thick clouds from heavy thunderstorms to the southeast of Fort Pierre, SD, sweep into the area at sunset on Wednesday, September 23, 2015. Image credit: wunderphotographer Tandistar.

Gulf of Mexico storm next week
A southerly flow of moisture from the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico towards the northern Gulf of Mexico will develop this weekend, and our top three models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis are showing an area of low pressure capable of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression forming near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday evening. An upper-level trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of Mexico next week will likely bring high wind shear to the Gulf, limiting the potential for any system in the Gulf to strengthen. The models are currently predicting that this system will get pulled northwards to affect the U.S. coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday. Regardless of whether or not this system develops into a named storm or not, the central Gulf Coast can expect heavy rains from Monday night through Wednesday. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively.

Ida weakens to a tropical depression
Persistent wind shear has taken its toll on Ida, which is now a tropical depression wandering slowly over the Central Atlantic, well away from any land areas. Satellite images on Wednesday morning showed Ida's center of circulation partially exposed to view by high wind shear, and all of Ida's heavy thunderstorms limited to the southeast side of the center. Ida will continue to move slowly in a region of weak steering currents for the next five days, and it is possible that high wind shear will destroy the storm by early next week, as suggested by Thursday morning runs of the GFS model.


Figure 6. Latest satellite image of Tropical Storm Ida.

Tropical Storm Dujuan a threat to Japan, China, and Taiwan
Tropical Storm Dujuan, located about 620 miles southeast of Okinawa in Japan's Ryukyu Islands at 8 am EDT Thursday, appears destined to become a major typhoon that will threaten Japan, China, and Taiwan early next week. Wind shear has dropped over the past day, and satellite loops on Thursday morning showed the storm was larger and more organized, with increasing spiral banding, the beginnings of an eyewall, and upper-level outflow channels opening to both the north and the south. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) projects that Dujuan will rapidly intensify to Category 4 strength by Sunday, and our top track model forecasts show Dujuan passing between Okinawa and Miyakojimi island in Japan's Ryukyu Islands near 21 UTC Sunday. However, the long-range forecast of where Dujuan might make final landfall is much lower confidence than usual, given a complex upper-level steering pattern the storm is in. Landfall is likely to occur somewhere along the Chinese coast from just north of Taiwan to just south of Shanghai, on Tuesday evening (U.S. EDT time.)


Figure 7. In this image of the Pacific Ocean taken at the exact time of the fall equinox, Wednesday, September 23 at 4:20 am EDT, we see Tropical Storm Dujuan at the right side of the image. The equinox marks the day that every place on Earth receives exactly twelve hours of daylight. From now until the spring equinox, the North Pole will be in 24-hour night, and the South Pole will have 24-hour daylight. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA/CIRA.

Tropical disturbance south of Acapulco, Mexico a threat to the coast
Our three top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predict that an area of disturbed weather about 300 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico will develop into a tropical depression on Monday. This system is expected to move northwards and be very near the coast close to Acapulco on Tuesday, potentially bringing dangerous flooding rains. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 20% and 80%, respectively.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

With the new track of Ida Bermuda, and the East coast should continue to monitor Ida...
Thanks Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson.
Keep an eye on the GOM in the coming days.
Thanks for the Updates Dynamic Duo,
IDA look very sickly ...

We'll be watching.
Quoting 2. Camerooski:

With the new track of Ida Bermuda, and the East coast should continue to monitor Ida...
Ida looks like a train wreck today. I think the GFS is right. Ida is going to degenerate into an open trough, just like every other CV storm this season. The remnants will wander westward to who knows where doing who knows what while half the people here will claim every single cloud is an ex-Ida remnant for days and weeks on end. This really hasn't been a fun hurricane season so far.
12z CMC goes POOOOOF to the GOM threat, doesn't show anything.......................................... ...........
Quoting 7. sar2401:

Ida looks like a train wreck today. I think the GFS is right. Ida is going to degenerate into an open trough, just like every other CV storm this season. The remnants will wander westward to who knows where doing who knows what while half the people here will claim every single cloud is an ex-Ida remnant for days and weeks on end. This really hasn't been a fun hurricane season so far.

Actually it's been a pretty fun season.
Quoting 3. Sfloridacat5:

Thanks Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson.
Keep an eye on the GOM in the coming days.
I'm keeping an eye on the GOM in hopes that the low will hold together and actually get over to Alabama. I'd be more than happy to see a wet low or even a weak TD if it can make it that far. The wind might cause some problems and the rain might cause some problems, but at least we'd have rain. My average rainfall for September is 4.92", and I'm at 1.16" now, so it's going to take a pretty decent storm just to get me back to normal for one month.
earth does some amazing stuff! I am always amazed at the ancient archaeology that aligns with the sun and moon cycles!!!
Quoting 8. TeleConnectSnow:

12z CMC goes POOOOOF to the GOM threat, doesn't show anything.......................................... ...........
No buddy your wrong.
Ida could dissipate i think Ida will track west into the Bahamas, because we have seen this track in past years with Andrew and Katrina even with Ike. So i would watch this westward track this could be scary, but because of shear this thing won't develop into anything significant. With the gulf low this weekend that could very well develop into a weak tropical storm or maybe even weak hurricane so anywhere from GALVESTON to TAMPA should monitor this system the track could very well shift west or east no one panic its just a small disturbance. Another impact may help this system develop. Invest 92-E could track over mexico then into the gulf of mexico if that happens then we could very well have a weak hurricane. but i give that a 30% chance of happening.
Quoting 9. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Actually it's been a pretty fun season.
That's because you're too young to know what a fun season really is. It's a lot more fun when a storm forms, tracks in some kind of non-bizarre manner, and actually makes landfall somewhere...anywhere. We've had two hurricanes, one lasting about 12 minutes, and both dissipating at sea. We've had two tropical storms that made landfall, with Bill spending way more time as a extratropical low wandering the brown ocean than it ever did over the green ocean. Other than that, it's mostly been invest, maybe a TD, dissipate, and repeat. We've spent way more time looking at remnant pieces of lows than we have looking at actual lows. If all this is your idea of fun, you've arrived at the right season.
Quoting 8. TeleConnectSnow:

12z CMC goes POOOOOF to the GOM threat, doesn't show anything.......................................... ...........
Don't worry, A hurricane will be parked over the Alabama coast on the next run. The CMS has to have at least one hurricane near Alabama every seven days or so. It's apparently built into the code to tease me. :-)
Great blog as always. Interesting weather brewing. Hope Southern Japan does not get hit again.
Well guys I was gunna do a lot of posting today but my uncle died last night

He was one of my favourite uncles

He was one of the three uncles that helped my get involved in the military

He was a Royal Naval Officer back in World War 2 he was one of the officers in charge of keeping safe and running operation of the Royal Trinidad Merchant Navy
Quoting 2. Camerooski:

With the new track of Ida Bermuda, and the East coast should continue to monitor Ida...


Why? There is zero model support for Ida hitting Bermuda or the east coast. Ida is getting drummed by wind shear; how it is still even a named storm is beyond my understanding.
Quoting 17. wunderkidcayman:

Well guys I was gunna do a lot of posting today but my uncle died last night

He was one of my favourite uncles

He was one of the three uncles that helped my get involved in the military

He was a Royal Naval Officer back in World War 2 he was one of the officers in charge of keeping safe and running operation of the Royal Trinidad Merchant Navy


Sorry to hear that. Rough to lose those favorite Uncles. Hang in there.
Quoting 13. James1981cane:

Ida could dissipate i think Ida will track west into the Bahamas, because we have seen this track in past years with Andrew and Katrina even with Ike. So i would watch this westward track this could be scary, but because of shear this thing won't develop into anything significant. With the gulf low this weekend that could very well develop into a weak tropical storm or maybe even weak hurricane so anywhere from GALVESTON to TAMPA should monitor this system the track could very well shift west or east no one panic its just a small disturbance. Another impact may help this system develop. Invest 92-E could track over mexico then into the gulf of mexico if that happens then we could very well have a weak hurricane. but i give that a 30% chance of happening.
Actually with Ida, once she gets past all the dry air conditions become favorable, thats why the NHC has her strengthen back into a TS so if she goes on a due west path like Andrew SE FL could have a system on their hands....
Quoting 14. sar2401:

That's because you're too young to know what a fun season really is. It's a lot more fun when a storm forms, tracks in some kind of non-bizarre manner, and actually makes landfall somewhere...anywhere. We've had two hurricanes, one lasting about 12 minutes, and both dissipating at sea. We've had two tropical storms that made landfall, with Bill spending way more time as a extratropical low wandering the brown ocean than it ever did over the green ocean. Other than that, it's mostly been invest, maybe a TD, dissipate, and repeat. We've spent way more time looking at remnant pieces of lows than we have looking at actual lows. If all this is your idea of fun, you've arrived at the right season.


If you want "fun" then wait for winter. Because this winter will be full of it.
Quoting 14. sar2401:

That's because you're too young to know what a fun season really is. It's a lot more fun when a storm forms, tracks in some kind of non-bizarre manner, and actually makes landfall somewhere...anywhere. We've had two hurricanes, one lasting about 12 minutes, and both dissipating at sea. We've had two tropical storms that made landfall, with Bill spending way more time as a extratropical low wandering the brown ocean than it ever did over the green ocean. Other than that, it's mostly been invest, maybe a TD, dissipate, and repeat. We've spent way more time looking at remnant pieces of lows than we have looking at actual lows. If all this is your idea of fun, you've arrived at the right season.
Something that nobody expected this year was the MDR development of almost all of our TC instead of north of 20n like a 2012 season.
Quoting 17. wunderkidcayman:

Well guys I was gunna do a lot of posting today but my uncle died last night

He was one of my favourite uncles

He was one of the three uncles that helped my get involved in the military

He was a Royal Naval Officer back in World War 2 he was one of the officers in charge of keeping safe and running operation of the Royal Trinidad Merchant Navy
Sorry to hear that. RIP
Quoting 21. Camerooski:

look at the models idiot


Actually, I have. I don't come on this site and make ridiculous statements that have no basis in facts, like you do almost daily. Enjoy your ban and since you're now going on my ignore list, I won't be seeing your posts again.
Which models show Ida becoming a threat to the U.S.?
Quoting 26. Sfloridacat5:

Which models show Ida becoming a threat to the U.S.?



None of them do.
....itsa Jungle out dere'



Quoting 21. Camerooski:

look at the models idiot


There is a huge difference between showing a turn to the west and being a threat to the United States.
Quoting 20. Camerooski:

Actually with Ida, once she gets past all the dry air conditions become favorable, thats why the NHC has her strengthen back into a TS so if she goes on a due west path like Andrew SE FL could have a system on their hands....


While Ida could restrengthen, its not gonna hit the US
Well!
Quoting 23. Gearsts:

Something that nobody expected this year was the MDR development of almost all of our TC instead of north of 20n like a 2012 season.


BTW Nino 1&2 are @ 2.6C via the CPC on this Monday's update. Also it appears Nino 1& 2 might have just surpassed 3C via these latest updates today from NOAA. Bottomline the CFSv2 is really under preforming now across Nino 3.4 & Nino 1&2 especially.

16SEP2015 23.0 2.6 27.6 2.7 29.0 2.3 29.8 1.1
Guys stop arguing on the blog act like men stop fighting over a tropical depression and the mini gulf low track it don't fight for it duh.
Quoting 33. Gearsts:

Well!



Well what?
Quoting 34. StormTrackerScott:



BTW Nino 1&2 are @ 2.6C via the CPC on this Monday's update. Also it appears Nino 1& 2 might have just surpassed 3C via these latest updates today from NOAA. Bottomline the CFSv2 is really under preforming now across Nino 3.4 & Nino 1&2 especially.

16SEP2015 23.0 2.6 27.6 2.7 29.0 2.3 29.8 1.1

What's with the cold on the 5n line? Data missing?
I do believe the gulf storm will develop into something interesting.
Quoting 36. Hurricanes101:



Well what?
Below the letter well there is and image.
Quoting 17. wunderkidcayman:

Well guys I was gunna do a lot of posting today but my uncle died last night

He was one of my favourite uncles

He was one of the three uncles that helped my get involved in the military

He was a Royal Naval Officer back in World War 2 he was one of the officers in charge of keeping safe and running operation of the Royal Trinidad Merchant Navy
I'm very sad to hear that. My condolences are with you man. Be praying for you and your family bro.
Quoting 37. Gearsts:

What's with the cold on the 5n line? Data missing?


Maybe but I suspect its because of heavy rains in that area causing upwelling to occur. My point is CFSv2 has been forecasting weakening sea surface anomalies for Nino 1&2 instead the opposite has occurred. Rapid warming ongoing near South America as a very strong OKW has hit the South American Coast.



Inside this circle of 7C anomalies 8C anomalies are appearing in a small area.

Quoting 35. James1981cane:

Guys stop arguing on the blog act like men stop fighting over a tropical depression and the mini gulf low track it don't fight for it duh.


Were we fighting?
Quoting 41. StormTrackerScott:



Maybe but I suspect its because of heavy rains in that area causing upwelling to occur. My point is CFSv2 has been forecasting weakening sea surface anomalies for Nino 1&2 instead the opposite has occurred. Rapid warming ongoing near South America as a very strong OKW has hit the South American Coast.



Inside this circle of 7C anomalies 8C anomalies are appearing in a small area.




What comes of Winter is yet to be seen...
44. SLU
Quoting 17. wunderkidcayman:

Well guys I was gunna do a lot of posting today but my uncle died last night

He was one of my favourite uncles

He was one of the three uncles that helped my get involved in the military

He was a Royal Naval Officer back in World War 2 he was one of the officers in charge of keeping safe and running operation of the Royal Trinidad Merchant Navy


Sorry to hear that. Hope you have time to reflect on good memories on this sad day!
Quoting 44. SLU:




But... Will it happen?
LOL! Ida should be a sheered mess but the CMC calls for a Cat3 hurricane.



Quoting 46. FunnelVortex:



But... Will it happen?
95% chance it won't
Quoting 48. Gearsts:

95% chance it won't


The storm might, but the track probably won't.
Thanks Dr. and Mr. Henson; looking forward to seeing whether the models will verify this far out as to an actual "storm" coming up off of the Yucatan Peninsula. Assuming that shear would keep an actual TD or TS from developing, it looks like a heavy rain event for the areas you noted.

Potential for some flooding rains depending on how much moisture is pulled in from the Yucatan area/extreme eastern E-Pac if the low deepens enough (regardless of sheer at the higher levels) on the way North but better a rain event than having to also deal with surge from fully formed tropical system.

It could be a huge rainmaker if this rather large area is able to pull the moisture into the Northern Gulf along with the low:

Quoting 32. FunnelVortex:



While Ida could restrengthen, its not gonna hit the US


Never count out an "I" storm.
Earlier 12Z ( 8:00 am) CMC run at 108 hours:

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Quoting 37. Gearsts:

What's with the cold on the 5n line? Data missing?


Isla Del Coco?
And the `12Z GFS at 108:

[JavaScript Image Player]
The gulf storm this weekend or next week that suppose to form, will likely just be rain make, just a low pressure. Maybe just maybe TD a best or low ST. But definitely a rain maker. I'm a winter person so I'm ready for the cold and snow
Quoting 55. weathermanwannabe:

And the `12Z GFS at 108:

[JavaScript Image Player]


Can yall send me the links to the nicer looking model run charts below (I am pulling mine off the FSU site but those posted below look much better)........................Thanks in advance.
North Atlantic extratropical beast.

From Tampa NWS:
AS WE GET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHAT TRANSPIRES WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALTHOUGH THEY CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH ITS TRACK/INTENSITY.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...CONDITIONS
DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OR NOT...THE PRESENCE OF THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL HELP TO BRING IN
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE VALUES INTO THE AREA...WELL
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR LATE SEPT. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK BUT AGAIN FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE AS
WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK.
One of the greatest little experimental tropical cyclogenesis maps. I never leave home without it.

Quoting 65. Grothar:

One of the greatest little experimental tropical cyclogenesis maps. I never leave home without it.




I have 5 of dem track are intersecting just off my corner seems.

: P
Quoting 30. Hurricanes101:



There is a huge difference between showing a turn to the west and being a threat to the United States.
Well you have to start somewhere.... and the motion generally west keeps her as a threat to the East Coast...
Our Caribbean disturbance is just off shore

Quoting 60. weathermanwannabe:

Can yall send me the links to the nicer looking model run charts below (I am pulling mine off the FSU site but those posted below look much better)........................Thanks in advance.


They're from Levi's site. Click on Forecast Models then play around with what you're interested in posting.

Edit: try not to hotlink but use a hosting program like imgur, photobucket, etc...
Quoting 69. JrWeathermanFL:

Our Caribbean disturbance is just off shore




Seems to have a little bit of a spin to it.
Insanes severe thunderstorm over south brazil now!
Insane line of severe thunderstorm over my state...
Looks like I picked the worst possible week for my vacation on St. George Island next week. I need to buy more alchohol.
future gulf system does not look like its in any hurry to develop vis.
Radar:



Guys!!!
The spring here starts with FURIOUS. Look the our radar.

Look this line, it's insane!!!!!! It just formed over me and it's moving to the northeast of my state (Rio Grande do Sul).
Today is the 9th consecutive day of rain here, nearly 300 mm already dropped in this period and will rain more!

Heavy thunderstorms, hail, strong winds was reported here since September 15th. The city of Rio Grande, over south my state, reported 70 mph winds with large hail yesterday, in this same city, last week more than 6.000 homes was damaged by another hail storm, the city, was declared state of emergency.

Since September 15th, more than 225 cities reported hailstorm, including my city, that already reported 5 hailstorms since September 15th.

This is our El Niño Pattern. #SuperElNiño



It's really impressive here, a lot of cities is breaking the previous records of heat.
Quoting 78. pablosyn:

Radar:



Guys!!!
The spring here starts with FURIOUS. Look the our radar.

Look this line, it's insane!!!!!! It just formed over me and it's moving to the northeast of my state (Rio Grande do Sul).
Today is the 9th consecutive day of rain here, nearly 300 mm already dropped in this period and will rain more!

Heavy thunderstorms, hail, strong winds was reported here since September 15th. The city of Rio Grande, over south my state, reported 70 mph winds with large hail yesterday, in this same city, last week more than 6.000 homes was damaged by another hail storm, the city, was declared state of emergency.

Since September 15th, more than 225 cities reported hailstorm, including my city, that already reported 5 hailstorms since September 15th.

This is our El Nio Pattern. #SuperElNio



It's really impressive here, a lot of cities is breaking the previous records of heat.


Can your part of Brazil get tornadoes? I know Argentina does, but what about southern Brazil?

And if your spring is like this, then I wonder what ours will be?
Quoting 33. Gearsts:

Well!



Meh...
I don't think so. xD
Quoting 83. JLPR2:



Meh...
I don't think so. xD
Why not? It's only 384 hours out! Those kinds of storms often develop just where the model says it will!! You guys are in for it now!!!!
Quoting 51. DavidHOUTX:



Never count out an "I" storm.



It's still alive! Conditionally Ida is going to get pushed dead West under the incoming dominant ridge. She could not make it with all this shear, but it will abate soon and if Ida intensifies headed West North of Puerto Rico eventually then it gets interesting. Storm is moving so slowly, at least not in the wrong direction any more; that experts have a long time to get ready for what ever Ida so slowly may do.
Quoting 80. fmbill:


Oh, man, I hope this thing doesn't turn into another "brown ocean" thing. I can only take one of those per season.
Quoting 78. pablosyn:

... It's really impressive here, a lot of cities is breaking the previous records of heat.

Indeed Pablo.

Source. Stay safe with your storms!
Quoting 87. sar2401:

Oh, man, I hope this thing doesn't turn into another "brown ocean" thing. I can only take one of those per season.


What does brown ocean mean?
Quoting 81. FunnelVortex:



Can your part of Brazil get tornadoes? I know Argentina does, but what about southern Brazil?

And if your spring is like this, then I wonder what ours will be?


This year we already more than 10 tornadoes confirmed. For you US's are extremely low, but for us is impressive. The last was a few days ago between Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo State. South Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay have the second highest activity of tornadoes in the world, just behind of Tornado Alley in US.

We have 5 supercells now in the Northeast of my state, the strongest is this in the middle with purple and pink color:


The pressure is around 990-998 mbar now in this areas!!!!!!! The temperature was near 31ºC earlier today, before the storm.
Quoting 85. sar2401:

Why not? It's only 384 hours out! Those kinds of storms often develop just where the model says it will!! You guys are in for it now!!!!
Already prepared.
Quoting 88. barbamz:


Indeed Pablo.

Source. Stay safe with your storms!


Yes, in Rio de Janeiro had 41ºC in airport earlier today. This is the hottest day in the year, and it's just the second day of spring. Another day of Rock in Rio tonight and will be very hot.
Quoting 90. pablosyn:



This year we already more than 10 tornadoes confirmed. For you US's are extremely low, but for us is impressive. The last was a few days ago between Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo State. South Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay have the second highest activity of tornadoes in the world, just behind of Tornado Alley in US.

We have 5 supercells now in the Northeast of my state, the strongest is this in the middle with purple and pink color:


The pressure is around 990-998 mbar now in this areas!!!!!!! The temperature was near 31ºC earlier today, before the storm.



Supercells? That looks more like a squall line with some shallow circulations/kinks. Supercells are not usually found on lines.
Quoting 89. FunnelVortex:



What does brown ocean mean?
He's just being sarcastic I think as in "the sky is green" just cause people want it to be.
Just a little early for this...Very large outbreak of cold air..10 days out tho..

Quoting 94. Sandcat:

He's just being sarcastic I think as in "the sky is green" just cause people want it to be.


No he isn't. It is a term used when a storm makes landfall and maintains it's strength well inland. It may even strengthen a little. The wet soil helps the storm keep its strength
TORNADO WATCH FOR SOUTH BRAZIL:

Did you see that i wrote about the Supercell and the line of storms? The Metsul just issued "TORNADO WATCH" for Northeast of Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil!

I'm sorry but is in portuguese:
Quoting 95. hydrus:

Just a little early for this...Very large outbreak of cold air..10 days out tho..


Quoting 93. FunnelVortex:



Supercells? That looks more like a squall line with some shallow circulations/kinks. Supercells are not usually found on lines.


Those look like embedded supercells to me. Very nasty looking line.
Quoting 83. JLPR2:



Meh...
I don't think so. xD
Not out of the woods. The TD, that became Isabel, crossed Puerto Rico from south to north; causing the October 8, 1985, ''Barrio Mameye's tragedy'' in Ponce, Puerto Rico...
Doh.....wrong map lol
Quoting 69. JrWeathermanFL:

Our Caribbean disturbance is just off shore


That should help future Joaquin...
Quoting 99. DeepSeaRising:



Those look like embedded supercells to me. Very nasty looking line.


Nasty line for sure. But they don't look like Supercells. Often lines will have vortices inside them that are not mesocyclonic.

Supercells are generally not found in the middle of lines. They are usually by themselves. If a supercell is in a line then chances are it is shallow.
Quoting 97. pablosyn:

TORNADO WATCH FOR SOUTH BRAZIL:

Did you see that i wrote about the Supercell and the line of storms? The Metsul just issued "TORNADO WATCH" for Northeast of Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil!

I'm sorry but is in portuguese:




Quoting 93. FunnelVortex:



Supercells? That looks more like a squall line with some shallow circulations/kinks. Supercells are not usually found on lines.


Answered. :)
Quoting 97. pablosyn:

TORNADO WATCH FOR SOUTH BRAZIL:

Did you see that i wrote about the Supercell and the line of storms? The Metsul just issued "TORNADO WATCH" for Northeast of Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil!

I'm sorry but is in portuguese:

Translation: " The supercell that is on the west . will turn south, has the potential for the formation of a Tornado".
Quoting 86. DeepSeaRising:




It's still alive! Conditionally Ida is going to get pushed dead West under the incoming dominant ridge. She could not make it with all this shear, but it will abate soon and if Ida intensifies headed West North of Puerto Rico eventually then it gets interesting. Storm is moving so slowly, at least not in the wrong direction any more; that experts have a long time to get ready for what ever Ida so slowly may do.
It's only barely alive! What happens with Ida and the westward move is really dependent on if Ida still exists as a named storm in three days. I don't think it will. It will either be a remnant low or open wave. Where any of that goes depends on the extend of the mid-Atlantic ridge and how far east it moves as more powerful fronts start to come off the east coast of Canada. There's a lower shear corridor that Ida or the remnants could take that now leads toward Florida, but it would run into higher shear and dry air long before it got there. The other possibility is that the high moves just far enough east that the steering current and lower shear ends up leading toward Virginia and the East Coast. Neither of these outcomes is at all likely. The most likely is that Ida will die at sea like so many other CV storms this season. As usual, there are a couple of low probability outcomes that some will latch onto because it meets their need for a storm in...ahem...their state. :-)

Quoting 95. hydrus:

Just a little early for this...Very large outbreak of cold air..10 days out tho..




Is that low in the Bahamas IDA or it's remnants?

Quoting 105. HuracanTaino:

Translation: " The supercell that is on the west . will turn south, has the potential for the formation of a Tornado".


Translation wrong. I'm brazilian.
That Yucatan low will probably be a pretty slow burner; I remember several examples of Yucatan "lows" over the years from the Blog where Dr. Master's noted that such a large area needed time to draw in convection and pull in all the moisture into a broad coc. This looks like another such big area to consolidate going into next week once the identifiable low actually forms:

Quoting 97. pablosyn:

TORNADO WATCH FOR SOUTH BRAZIL:

Did you see that i wrote about the Supercell and the line of storms? The Metsul just issued "TORNADO WATCH" for Northeast of Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil!

I'm sorry but is in portuguese:

If it's for the supercell(s) that are in the line you posted, I wonder why they wouldn't issue a warning instead of a watch? There must be the expectation that other supercells may form later that might lead to the chance of a tornado.
Quoting 87. sar2401:

Oh, man, I hope this thing doesn't turn into another "brown ocean" thing. I can only take one of those per season.
I promise man your like the little train that could, lol
Quoting 109. weathermanwannabe:

That Yucatan low will probably be a pretty slow burner; I remember several examples of Yucatan "lows" over the years from the Blog where Dr. Master's noted that such a large area needed time to draw in convection and pull in all the moisture into a broad coc. This looks like another such big area to consolidate going into next week once the identifiable low actually forms:


Quoting 109. weathermanwannabe:

That Yucatan low will probably be a pretty slow burner; I remember several examples of Yucatan "lows" over the years from the Blog where Dr. Master's noted that such a large area needed time to draw in convection and pull in all the moisture into a broad coc. This looks like another such big area to consolidate going into next week once the identifiable low actually forms:


Excuse me but are you one of our southeast weather blogger lol

Ida...There's that circulation completely exposed.
Right now; there is no discernible cyclonic circulation at all either at the surface or mid levels over the Yucatan: just the elongated upper level trof-tutt cell draped from the Yucatan all the way to the US east coast: most of the surface vort is on the area moving into the Carolinas.

Upper Level:



Mid Level:



Surface:



Quoting 109. weathermanwannabe:

That Yucatan low will probably be a pretty slow burner; I remember several examples of Yucatan "lows" over the years from the Blog where Dr. Master's noted that such a large area needed time to draw in convection and pull in all the moisture. This looks like another such big area to consolidate going into next week:


I don't think it has to consolidate all that convection. A lot of that is just the daily thunderstorms in the Gulf of Panama that I don't think will play much part in the low forming. That's going to happen in the Gulf of Honduras, or maybe even inland over Honduras or Belize. I think it's the energy currently in the Pacific as part of the invest that will be headed toward Acapulco. Keep an eye on the GOH. I think that's where the low will actually form, not further south.
Quoting 115. sar2401:

I don't think it has to consolidate all that convection. A lot of that is just the daily thunderstorms in the Gulf of Panama that I don't think will play much part in the low forming. That's going to happen in the Gulf of Honduras, or maybe even inland over Honduras or Belize. I think it's the energy currently in the Pacific as part of the invest that will be headed toward Acapulco. Keep an eye on the GOH. I think that's where the low will actually form, not further south.


Good points to consider; I did not want to go here but in the back of my mind, I am also wondering if what the models are picking up on might actually be a potential E-Pac system (lots of energy sharing at times between an E-Pac system and/or Western Caribbean system where a dominant low forms on one side or the other and steals the show).

Here is what the E-Pact currently looks like: time will tell.


In all fairness, Dr. Masters has called for a potential storm in the Gulf next week (based on the models) so my potential E-Pac scenario is probably a pipe dream.........................................
Quoting 107. ProgressivePulse:



Is that low in the Bahamas IDA or it's remnants?


It doesn't look like it. That 1011 mb low just appears out of nowhere at 216 hours. The theoretical Ida is the 1010 mb low to the NE of what appears to be a ghost low by the Bahamas.

So even Ida couldn't cope with El Nino wind shear. It sure did look like it might have a better chance.
looks like NC and SC are getting very heavy rains along the coast
Quoting 117. weathermanwannabe:



Good points to consider; I did not want to go here but in the back of my mind, I am also wondering if what the models are picking up on might actually be a potential E-Pac system (lots of energy sharing at times between an E-Pac system and/or Western Caribbean system where a dominant low forms on one side or the other and steals the show).

Here is what the E-Pact currently looks like: time will tell.



It looks to me like the energy in the Pacific is the only place organized enough to spawn a low over Honduras that will move north over land to the Yucatan and then pop out into the Gulf and become our Gulf low. All the convection in the Gulf of Panama looks impressive now because most of it is diurnal. Take a look at almost any day past midnight and you'll see most of it goes to sleep. That's not the kind of pattern that creates a low that's going to make it to the Gulf. I could be completely wrong, of course, but I've seen this pattern before, and the East Pac connection is the only one that makes sense to me.
If the disturbance along the Pacific coast of Mexico develops faster than the one forecast for the Gulf of Mexico, it seems unlikely that the one in the Gulf will be able to survive the resultant shear from the outflow, coupled with the overall unfavorable shear that's stunted all the Atlantic storms this year. We shall see.
Interesting to see what unfolds over the next several days. Here is the CPC Hazard Outlook although it is two days old now; notice the moderate chances of TC formation on both sides of Central America:


\"Global
Quoting 122. will45:

looks like NC and SC are getting very heavy rains along the coast
Lucky dogs. I'm getting very heavy...uhh...I guess, mist here. It's not heavy enough to be called drizzle. Since this "storm" has a reflectivity of a whopping 39 dBZ and a VIL of 1 (yes, one), I guess I shouldn't be surprised. Seriously, I'll even take some water pooling under the house so I have to get down there and start the sump pump if we can get enough rain to make that happen. The last time it happened was April 30, 2013.
Quoting 96. DavidHOUTX:



No he isn't. It is a term used when a storm makes landfall and maintains it's strength well inland. It may even strengthen a little. The wet soil helps the storm keep its strength


TS Erin comes to mind...
Quoting 113. Starhopper:


Ida...There's that circulation completely exposed.
My guess of a remnant low or open wave in three days may be a little optimistic if this keeps up.
Quoting 125. BayFog:

If the disturbance along the Pacific coast of Mexico develops faster than the one forecast for the Gulf of Mexico, it seems unlikely that the one in the Gulf will be able to survive the resultant shear from the outflow, coupled with the overall unfavorable shear that's stunted all the Atlantic storms this year. We shall see.
I don't believe anything of significance will come out of the gulf.
big blow up of showers sw carib.
Quoting 130. sar2401:

My guess of a remnant low or open wave in three days may be a little optimistic if this keeps up.


It's looked exactly like this for at least 2 days now. I have no idea how this storm still has a circulation at this point.
Quoting 130. sar2401:

My guess of a remnant low or open wave in three days may be a little optimistic if this keeps up.

Not much left on top huh. What a fighter Ida has been. Might have been scary to see what Danny, Erika, and Ida would have been under optimal conditions.
Quoting 51. DavidHOUTX:



Never count out an "I" storm.


Or an "a" storm either, from our point of view.
Surface Analysis (TPC/NWS/NOAA)
Quoting 133. tampabaymatt:



It's looked exactly like this for at least 2 days now. I have no idea how this storm still has a circulation at this point.

Me either. It's been looking like a torch in a gale force wind for a while.
Everyone have a safe weather evening and see Yall tomorrow...............Here are the current conditions for our folks on the SE coast: stay out of the flooded roads.
Southeast sector loop

Quoting 94. Sandcat:

He's just being sarcastic I think as in "the sky is green" just cause people want it to be.
No, this time I'm not being sarcastic. Check out what TS Bill did to Texas and Oklahoma earlier this year due, at least in part, to this "brown ocean" effect. There's a short Wiki article that gives some explanation. I'm not 100% convinced that the floods caused by Bill were all due to this brown ocean thing but certainly some of it was.

As if the shear wasn't enough for Ida...add dry air. Bb later all : )
Quoting 96. DavidHOUTX:



No he isn't. It is a term used when a storm makes landfall and maintains it's strength well inland. It may even strengthen a little. The wet soil helps the storm keep its strength
I stand corrected. That makes sense. Isaac was like that. 3 days of nonstop rain. Yard would squirt water when you walked
Quoting 110. sar2401:

If it's for the supercell(s) that are in the line you posted, I wonder why they wouldn't issue a warning instead of a watch? There must be the expectation that other supercells may form later that might lead to the chance of a tornado.


Because wasn't a hook.
A level of concern: Bad monsoon leaves its mark, reservoirs are emptier than normal
The worst situation is in the 31 reservoirs of southern India, which are together filled to only 35 per cent of their capacity. These should normally be filled to 81 per cent of their capacity at this time.
Written by Amitabh Sinha | New Delhi | Published:September 25, 2015 12:53 am
As the four-month monsoon season nears its end, a water and power crisis looms. India’s major reservoirs, whose waters are used for irrigation, electricity generation and for drinking, are mostly emptier than normal.
Government figures updated until Wednesday show the country’s 91 big reservoirs had a total of 95.313 billion cubic metres of water in them — just about 60 per cent of the total capacity of these reservoirs.
While reservoirs are not expected to be full to capacity at this time of the year, even during a normal monsoon season, the current storage levels are a reason for concern. The total storage is 23 per cent less than the normal storage expected at this time, normal being the average of the last 10 years. ...

More see link above.

Indian monsoon deficit: what's the cause?
BBC weather video, 23 September 2015 Last updated at 20:53
The Indian monsoon season spans from June to September and brings much needed rain to the region after months of sweltering heat.
Indian agriculture is dependent on the climate of India and a favourable summer monsoon is absolutely critical for securing water for irrigating crops.
As the monsoon began its retreat in September, the India Meteorological Department confirmed that India as a whole, has suffered a rainfall deficit of 12-15%, with some regions experiencing a deficit of almost 50%.
This kind of deficit is around 1 in 18 year event.

What is the cause and what will the impact be on India? BBC Weather's Nick Miller explores further.


Quoting 133. tampabaymatt:



It's looked exactly like this for at least 2 days now. I have no idea how this storm still has a circulation at this point.
It's really worse today, with the center completely exposed and all the convection accelerating away from the center. Unless the center can relocate under some new convection, I really don't see how it survives as a named storm for more than 24 hours. Another thing to consider is that Ida has really been a TD since yesterday evening. The NHC didn't want to drop it to a TD due to continuity until they saw if it was going to recover within the following 12 hours. It didn't, so that's why it went to a TD today. The NHC will tend to be further behind reality in public forecasts with a weakening storm than a strengthening storm.
The 12Z EURO is showing very little in the GOM in the 5 day outlook. Is it usually right, when comparing to the other models?
Quoting 128. sar2401:

Lucky dogs. I'm getting very heavy...uhh...I guess, mist here. It's not heavy enough to be called drizzle. Since this "storm" has a reflectivity of a whopping 39 dBZ and a VIL of 1 (yes, one), I guess I shouldn't be surprised. Seriously, I'll even take some water pooling under the house so I have to get down there and start the sump pump if we can get enough rain to make that happen. The last time it happened was April 30, 2013.


Make sure it still works!
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
354 PM CDT Thursday Sep 24 2015


Long term...

from Saturday through Monday an upper level trough is
expected to develop and deepen over south Texas. As this
occurs...tropical moisture will begin to gradually move north into
the northern Gulf Coast. Appreciable rain chances will come into
play beginning Sunday with 20 percent in northwestern zones up to 50 percent
in the coastal waters.

The upper low will slowly move northeast to East Texas by Tuesday.
Meanwhile...global models suggest that a surface low of some sort
originating around the Yucatan Peninsula will track north across the
central Gulf of Mexico. This feature...tropical or not...will bring
with it quite a plethora of moisture to the northern Gulf Coast. At
the current movement shown by models...the County Warning Area will be on the
western side of the low and thus on the "drier" of the 2 sides.
Either way...have increased probability of precipitation to 50 to 70 percent early next
week. Rain chances will continue through middle week but on a downward
trend.

Meffer
&&
Wow about 10 inches of rain just East of Omaha.
Hey guys. Just made this year's Winter Storm Naming List. This was made by me.

Arak’Taral: Jem’Hadar from DS9: ‘Hippocratic Oath’
Bashir: DS9’s genetically enhanced Doctor.
Cretak: Romulan senator from DS9 season 7
Dukat: Former prefect of Bajor, went insane in DS9: ‘Sacrifice of Angels’ and DS9: ‘Waltz’.
Ezri: Ezri Dax, Trill who hosted the Dax symbiont in DS9 season 7
Fontaine: Vic Fontaine, a hologram from DS9 season 6 and 7
Garak: Cardassian exiled from Cardassia until DS9: ‘What you leave behind’
Hudson: Calvin Hudson from DS9: ‘The Maquis’
Ishka: Quark’s mother from DS9 seasons 3, 5, 6, and 7
Jadzia: Jadzia Dax, who hosted the Dax symbiont from DS9 seasons 1-6
Kudak’etan: Jem’Hadar from DS9: ‘One Little Ship’
Leeta: Bajoran Dabo Girl who first appeared in DS9: ‘Explorers’
Martok: Klingon General, became Chancellor in DS9: ‘Tacking into the wind’
Nog: Ferengi Ensign who served during the Dominion War
Opaka: Was Kai of Bajor during the Cardassian Occupation, preceded Winn.
Pabst: Douglas Pabst from DS9: ‘Far beyond the stars’
Q: Omnipotent enemy from TNG that Sisko dealt with in DS9: ‘Q-Less’. Never appeared in DS9 again.
Ross: Admiral Ross from the Dominion War episodes. First appeared in ‘A Time To Stand’
Sisko: Captain of Deep Space Nine, and USS Defiant.
Toman’Torox: Jem’Hadar from DS9: ‘To The Death’
Ulani: Cardassian Scientist from DS9: ‘Destiny’
Vreenak: Romulan Senator from DS9: ‘In the pale moonlight’. Famous for his meme ‘It’s a Faaake!’
Weyoun: Leading Vorta of the Alpha Quadrant during the Dominion War.
Yelgrun: Vorta from DS9: ‘The Magnificent Ferengi’.
Ziyal: Dukat’s daughter, killed by Damar in DS9: ‘Sacrifice of Angels’.

What do you think?
Another thunderstorm here! Is a squall line again, now coming from north!
Severe Weather alert in South Brazil, Novo Hamburgo already reported strong winds and torrencial rain 5 minutes ago!



High lightning incidence here and just 1001 mbar!
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago
Hurricane Rita generated more ACE in one day in 2005 than all TCs have in the Atlantic in September 2015.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 6h6 hours ago
Note doubt about it- the blob is weakening!
GFS & Euro showing a wet pattern beginning again across FL.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
500 PM AST THU SEP 24 2015

Ida is a sheared system and consists of a tight swirl of low clouds
with a comma-shaped convective band to the east of the center. Since
there has been no change in the satellite presentation, the initial
intensity is kept at 30 kt. Global models no longer forecasting a
decrease in the shear, and in general, all models are showing a
gradual decay of the cyclone. On this basis, the NHC forecast
maintains Ida as a depression through the forecast period.

Ida has been moving toward the north at about 4 knots. The mid-
tropospheric trough, which was affecting Ida, is gradually moving
eastward away from the cyclone, and the subtropical ridge has begun
to develop to the north of the cyclone. This pattern will favor a
north-northwest to northwest track during the next 48 hours. After
that time, the cyclone is expected to be a shallow system, and will
likely move westward as it is steered by the low-level easterly
flow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 21.2N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 21.9N 45.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 22.5N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 23.5N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 24.5N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 25.0N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 25.0N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 24.5N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Quoting 108. pablosyn:



Translation wrong. I'm brazilian.
Tell , google translate...
The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season in a nutshell.

Hey guys I just want to thank all of you guys for the nice comment during this tough time

I need to continue writing on here as this is what he would have wanted me to do instead of sobbing over him

That's two things he loved about me #1 was carrying on what some of the family does which is the military and #2 the weather he told me he wish he had a weather officer who was like me and knew what he was doing (he ran through quite a few storms during the war)

He also liked that I loved acting and had dreams about becoming an actor (he worked in film industry with Columbia Pictures after the war)

He also worked at one of Caymans biggest bank years ago before the bank was closed down

Anyway guys so let get on

SW Carib system is kicking I see shear is falling in the area
Well atleast we get overcast rainy conditions with some gust of wind here and there

I see Ida is now a TD I suspect it may restrengthen down the road may even get stronger than it has ever been

IMO I think will could see about 3-4 maybe 5 more storms before the end of the season
No changes with 8pm TWO no surprise there
Anyway guys see ya later or tomorrow
Quoting 160. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys I just want to thank all of you guys for the nice comment during this tough time

I need to continue writing on here as this is what he would have wanted me to do instead of sobbing over him

That's two things he loved about me #1 was carrying on what some of the family does which is the military and #2 the weather he told me he wish he had a weather officer who was like me and knew what he was doing (he ran through quite a few storms during the war)

He also liked that I loved acting and had dreams about becoming an actor (he worked in film industry with Columbia Pictures after the war)

He also worked at one of Caymans biggest bank years ago before the bank was closed down

Anyway guys so let get on

SW Carib system is kicking I see shear is falling in the area
Well atleast we get overcast rainy conditions with some gust of wind here and there

I see Ida is now a TD I suspect it may restrengthen down the road may even get stronger than it has ever been

IMO I think will could see about 3-4 maybe 5 more storms before the end of the season


Sincere Condolences my friend, great memories never die
164. vis0
Is that invest BO2 over Minnesota? : - P
165. vis0

Quoting 151. Gearsts:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 2h2 hours ago
Hurricane Rita generated more ACE in one day in 2005 than all TCs have in the Atlantic in September 2015.
Thank you for the interesting info.

(humor) Now If i must be frank, a vaporizer generates more ACE in 1 day (humour)
166. vis0
Xtra-Fujiwara over Franklin, OHIO? anyone? (xtra for the xtraTrops as TD 16 goes ESE to 97L going NNW, ) my 22non-cents...the "2wkAnom" might ruin this for the 2 members that know what that means.

CAREFUL WITH FLOODING everyone under both TROP SYS. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE that once you start going with the flow of water there is nothing for you to hold on to so don't take a chance AND ITS NIGHT TIME.
Quoting 159. GeoffreyWPB:



As you can see, some Scoundrel has absconded with our rainy season.
We would really like to have it back........
Its 384 so can't rely on this shear forecast.
Quoting 150. pablosyn:

Another thunderstorm here! Is a squall line again, now coming from north!
Severe Weather alert in South Brazil, Novo Hamburgo already reported strong winds and torrencial rain 5 minutes ago!



High lightning incidence here and just 1001 mbar!


Sure looks torrential..
Quoting 167. pottery:


As you can see, some Scoundrel has absconded with our rainy season.
We would really like to have it back........
That same scoundrel stole mine too, Pott! Let's hunt him down and give him a severe thrashing!

Still no rain today here at the SAR ranchette although I've been surrounded by rain all day. Another line of green stuff is advancing in my direction however. The last line of green stuff gave me enough drizzle I could see some drops on the sidewalk, although not enough to tilt the bucket in the rain gauge. This line of green stuff appears to be of the more severe variety, so I'm hoping to have an actual shower some minutes long. I feel kind of bad posting such a pessimistic report when so many others are reporting gutter crushing amounts, but such is life here. At least it's cooler, with a high of only 84. How are your temperatures down there? You're approaching the tropical cool season, when your average temperature should drop by a degree Fahrenheit, or maybe as much as a full degree centigrade if you get a severe cold wave...right? :-)
Quoting 160. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys I just want to thank all of you guys for the nice comment during this tough time

I need to continue writing on here as this is what he would have wanted me to do instead of sobbing over him

That's two things he loved about me #1 was carrying on what some of the family does which is the military and #2 the weather he told me he wish he had a weather officer who was like me and knew what he was doing (he ran through quite a few storms during the war)

He also liked that I loved acting and had dreams about becoming an actor (he worked in film industry with Columbia Pictures after the war)

He also worked at one of Caymans biggest bank years ago before the bank was closed down

Anyway guys so let get on

SW Carib system is kicking I see shear is falling in the area
Well atleast we get overcast rainy conditions with some gust of wind here and there

I see Ida is now a TD I suspect it may restrengthen down the road may even get stronger than it has ever been

IMO I think will could see about 3-4 maybe 5 more storms before the end of the season
Sorry about your uncle passing, WKC. He sounds like he was quite a guy, like so many of his generation. My last uncle died two years ago, so I have no living aunts or uncles. It's a strange feeling after having been so close to several of them over the years.
Quoting 165. vis0:


Thank you for the interesting info.

(humor) Now If i must be frank, a vaporizer generates more ACE in 1 day (humour)

LOL. So true, Vis. We've had a lot of storms to have developed so little energy. Wait, that last part kind of sounded like me when I get up in the morning. :-)
Quoting 158. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season in a nutshell.


"I'm shrinking, I'm shrinking...". I felt quite confident, based on the best forecaster's tool, persistence, that Ida would die out in the Atlantic. At this point, I'm not sure Ida even rates as a TD. Avila sounded like he was ready to drive a stake into Ida ASAP. :-)
Quoting 160. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys I just want to thank all of you guys for the nice comment during this tough time

I need to continue writing on here as this is what he would have wanted me to do instead of sobbing over him

That's two things he loved about me #1 was carrying on what some of the family does which is the military and #2 the weather he told me he wish he had a weather officer who was like me and knew what he was doing (he ran through quite a few storms during the war)

He also liked that I loved acting and had dreams about becoming an actor (he worked in film industry with Columbia Pictures after the war)

He also worked at one of Caymans biggest bank years ago before the bank was closed down

Anyway guys so let get on

SW Carib system is kicking I see shear is falling in the area
Well atleast we get overcast rainy conditions with some gust of wind here and there

I see Ida is now a TD I suspect it may restrengthen down the road may even get stronger than it has ever been

IMO I think will could see about 3-4 maybe 5 more storms before the end of the season
Sorry for your loss.
Surprising this disturbance SE of Hawaii hasn't already been declared a tropical storm (Niala).
Well! I can see that Avila's last update has certainly taken the wind out of a lot of sails, judging by the post count. Since no one will read this until tomorrow morning, let me take this opportunity to tell each and every one of you chowderheads exactly what I think of you!

Just kidding. Instead, let's have a little contest. Pick one of the convection blobs swirling around the Caribbean and Central America as our fabled Gulf low. Whoever picks the one that becomes our next raging storm gets two cookies by WU mail.

Quoting 149. 62901IL:

Hey guys. Just made this year's Winter Storm Naming List. This was made by me.

Arak’Taral: Jem’Hadar from DS9: ‘Hippocratic Oath’
Bashir: DS9’s genetically enhanced Doctor.
Cretak: Romulan senator from DS9 season 7
Dukat: Former prefect of Bajor, went insane in DS9: ‘Sacrifice of Angels’ and DS9: ‘Waltz’.
Ezri: Ezri Dax, Trill who hosted the Dax symbiont in DS9 season 7
Fontaine: Vic Fontaine, a hologram from DS9 season 6 and 7
Garak: Cardassian exiled from Cardassia until DS9: ‘What you leave behind’
Hudson: Calvin Hudson from DS9: ‘The Maquis’
Ishka: Quark’s mother from DS9 seasons 3, 5, 6, and 7
Jadzia: Jadzia Dax, who hosted the Dax symbiont from DS9 seasons 1-6
Kudak’etan: Jem’Hadar from DS9: ‘One Little Ship’
Leeta: Bajoran Dabo Girl who first appeared in DS9: ‘Explorers’
Martok: Klingon General, became Chancellor in DS9: ‘Tacking into the wind’
Nog: Ferengi Ensign who served during the Dominion War
Opaka: Was Kai of Bajor during the Cardassian Occupation, preceded Winn.
Pabst: Douglas Pabst from DS9: ‘Far beyond the stars’
Q: Omnipotent enemy from TNG that Sisko dealt with in DS9: ‘Q-Less’. Never appeared in DS9 again.
Ross: Admiral Ross from the Dominion War episodes. First appeared in ‘A Time To Stand’
Sisko: Captain of Deep Space Nine, and USS Defiant.
Toman’Torox: Jem’Hadar from DS9: ‘To The Death’
Ulani: Cardassian Scientist from DS9: ‘Destiny’
Vreenak: Romulan Senator from DS9: ‘In the pale moonlight’. Famous for his meme ‘It’s a Faaake!’
Weyoun: Leading Vorta of the Alpha Quadrant during the Dominion War.
Yelgrun: Vorta from DS9: ‘The Magnificent Ferengi’.
Ziyal: Dukat’s daughter, killed by Damar in DS9: ‘Sacrifice of Angels’.

What do you think?

Maybe instead these should be offered up as suggestions for solar storms. It's bound to happen one day---naming them that is.
Quoting 176. sar2401:

Well! I can see that Avila's last update has certainly taken the wind out of a lot of sails, judging by the post count. Since no one will read this until tomorrow morning, let me take this opportunity to tell each and every one of you chowderheads exactly what I think of you!

Just kidding. Instead, let's have a little contest. Pick one of the convection blobs swirling around the Caribbean and Central America as our fabled Gulf low. Whoever picks the one that becomes our next raging storm gets two cookies by WU mail.



I'm going with one that started out near Panama, but I don't think it will amount to a raging storm.
Quoting 175. BayFog:

Surprising this disturbance SE of Hawaii hasn't already been declared a tropical storm (Niala).



Winds up to 35 mph and pressure down to 1004 mbar. Probably TD 6-C in less than 2 hour and TS Niala tomorrow afternoon or late morning.
Quoting 178. BayFog:


I'm going with one that started out near Panama, but I don't think it will amount to a raging storm.

I agree!
Quoting 175. BayFog:

Surprising this disturbance SE of Hawaii hasn't already been declared a tropical storm (Niala).

I definitely agree..That looks like a full fledged tropical storm.
This El-Nino could max out near 3C later this year as a very strong WWB presses east toward South America. Remember the attacks against me in January well now I have the last laugh! It was nearly every member on here.

Quoting 181. hydrus:

I definitely agree..That looks like a full fledged tropical storm.


#Super Nino in progress
Thoughts?

Citi's meteorologist expects this upcoming heating season to also differ from what is typically expected during strong El Niño winters. Specifically, more pronounced –NOA/-AO Blocking and/or +PNA Ridging are expected to at times dominate or overwhelm El Nino influences, developing episodes of deeper troughing over the Great Lakes and corresponding colder-than-normal weather across PJM and the Northeast.
Quoting 184. Astrometeor:

Thoughts?

Citi's meteorologist expects this upcoming heating season to also differ from what is typically expected during strong El Niño winters. Specifically, more pronounced –NOA/-AO Blocking and/or +PNA Ridging are expected to at times dominate or overwhelm El Nino influences, developing episodes of deeper troughing over the Great Lakes and corresponding colder-than-normal weather across PJM and the Northeast.

He is correct. It will likely be the same pattern we have had the past two winters.


Interesting high setup in this 96 hr forecast from OPC ... still showing Ida, too :-)

Such a high would potentially lead to Ida making landfall on the GA coast and would send a GOM system westward....
Quoting 185. hydrus:

He is correct. It will likely be the same pattern we have had the past two winters.


The Citi meteorologist disagrees with NOAA. My father asked me specifically what I thought of it. I find it hard to believe that we can have a third straight winter of this, especially with El Nino.
Quoting 187. Astrometeor:



The Citi meteorologist disagrees with NOAA. My father asked me specifically what I thought of it. I find it hard to believe that we can have a third straight winter of this, especially with El Nino.


He we will also we be busted with a plate of crispy crow as El-Nino is just to strong to have that type of blocking. Problem is too many downplayed this ENSO only to have it blow up in there face and this guy is next.

December. Could be one of the warmest Winters ever across the Northern US.


Quoting 186. BahaHurican:



Interesting high setup in this 96 hr forecast from OPC ... still showing Ida, too :-)

Such a high would potentially lead to Ida making landfall on the GA coast and would send a GOM system westward....

Hi, Baha. I don't know that whatever remains of Ida will have the gumption to ever get to Georgia, but let's not be talking about pushing the Gulf low west. It needs a little nudge eastward so it comes ashore in the Panhandle and then works its way a little north, watering my lawn and flowers. I'm so sick of dragging hoses around this year. I think next year I'll just give in and buy nothing but plastic plants. :-)
190. JLPR2
Ida giving it another shot (again).

Quoting 184. Astrometeor:

Thoughts?

Citi's meteorologist expects this upcoming heating season to also differ from what is typically expected during strong El Nio winters. Specifically, more pronounced %u2013NOA/-AO Blocking and/or PNA Ridging are expected to at times dominate or overwhelm El Nino influences, developing episodes of deeper troughing over the Great Lakes and corresponding colder-than-normal weather across PJM and the Northeast.

It would be nice to see a link so I can read the whole article, but I'd certainly be cautious about weather forecasts from a meteorologist employed by what I assume is Citi's gas futures trading group. There has been a lot of shorting of natural gas futures in the last month based on the supernova El Nino. I suspect Citi hasn't learned to trust the STS Amazing Godzilla El Nino Forecast Center yet, and may have been caught flat footed on the long side of the futures. It's little tidbits like this that get gas futures moving back in the direction that lets Citi dump their position while the little people get the shaft. :-)
Quoting 187. Astrometeor:



The Citi meteorologist disagrees with NOAA. My father asked me specifically what I thought of it. I find it hard to believe that we can have a third straight winter of this, especially with El Nino.


Ploy to get people out to get gas. Going to be warm up north this year compared to average. Should be a nice break from 2 Winters of well below zero temps.
Quoting 185. hydrus:

He is correct. It will likely be the same pattern we have had the past two winters.


I disagree hydrus.
Link
According to the Farmers Almanac, the winter of 2015 2016 is looking like a repeat of last winter, at least in terms of temperatures with unseasonably cold conditions over the Atlantic Seaboard, eastern portions of the Great Lakes, and the lower peninsula of Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, most of the Tennessee and Mississippi Valley, as well as much of the Gulf Coast.

New Englanders will once again experience a very frigid (shivery) winter deja vu.

(Possible that end of 2015 very mild, followed by the "Artic zone" in early 2016?)
Quoting 181. hydrus:

I definitely agree..That looks like a full fledged tropical storm.
That's only because our full-fledged Atlantic storms this year look like a Pacific invest. :-)

The boys in Honolulu are right on top of this, just after doing a little surfing offshore and going to the luau -

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 PM HST THU SEP 24 2015

For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. Thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure centered around 550 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii are becoming better organized. Environmental conditions will remain conducive for development and a tropical depression will likely form soon as the system moves slowly toward the northwest. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is likely to begin advisories on this system later today or tonight.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 90 percent.

The auricle has spoken.

LoL
Quoting 190. JLPR2:

Ida giving it another shot (again).




The girl won't give up... ...she knows she *must* be the "I" storm
STS...you seem to be banking on this EL NINO doing all the damage. This isn't like 97/98. The pacific and atlantic is nowhere near the same. Will it be as frigid to the north as the past few years? No. But it will not be warm. I could see negative departures into the northeast for the winter as a whole
Quoting 189. sar2401:

Hi, Baha. I don't know that whatever remains of Ida will have the gumption to ever get to Georgia, but let's not be talking about pushing the Gulf low west. It needs a little nudge eastward so it comes ashore in the Panhandle and then works its way a little north, watering my lawn and flowers. I'm so sick of dragging hoses around this year. I think next year I'll just give in and buy nothing but plastic plants. :-)


Could this Gulf low turn into something similar to Tropical Storm Lee of 2011, with 50 mph winds and high waves affecting Houston and Galveston?
Quoting 194. unknowncomic:

According to the Farmers’ Almanac, the winter of 2015–2016 is looking like a repeat of last winter, at least in terms of temperatures with unseasonably cold conditions over the Atlantic Seaboard, eastern portions of the Great Lakes, and the lower peninsula of Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, most of the Tennessee and Mississippi Valley, as well as much of the Gulf Coast.

New Englanders will once again experience a very frigid (shivery) winter (Déjà vu).
Well, I don't see why not. It was unseasonably hot in South Alabama this summer, so it might as well be unseasonably cold again this winter and kill all my plants that the lack of rain hasn't already killed. At this point, the OFA or National Enquirer has as good a forecast for this winter as any other...
Good Evening everyone, missing my major hurricanes in the Atlantic. Seriously, feeling Tropically depressed. I understand these cause death and destruction, but wouldn't wish it on my worst enemies. It just feels so weird not even having at least one hurricane out there in September of all months, seriously it's like we have hit rock bottom here. I hate you Climate Change. I hate you El Nino if these are the reasons for this quiet season. If we rebound to a La Nina next year, then I think activity will pick up again, but one has to really wonder now have we officially ended the active era that began in 1995 and probably ended in 2012 with Hurricane Sandy? If that be the case then it might not be until 2025 until the next active decade begins. This stinks and really with the exception of Hurricane Danny this season has been downright awful and boring from development and intensification stand point. Obviously, I don't want anybody to get hurt, but I would take a 2010 season over this junk of a hurricane season. And that's just how I really feel.

Now onto something more interesting and exciting for us Science nerds:

Sunday's "Supermoon" Total Lunar Eclipse: When and Where to See It



On the evening of Sept. 27, the moon will once again become immersed in the Earth's shadow, resulting in a total lunar eclipse─the fourth such event in the last 17 months,

As with all lunar eclipses, the region of visibility for Sunday's blood-moon lunar eclipse will encompass more than half of our planet. Nearly 1 billion people in the Western Hemisphere, nearly 1.5 billion throughout much of Europe and Africa and perhaps another 500 million in western Asia will be able to watch as the Harvest Full Moon becomes a shadow of its former self and morphs into a glowing coppery ball.

The lunar eclipse will also feature the "biggest" full moon (in apparent size) of 2015, since the moon will also be at perigee on the very same day─its closest point to the Earth─221,753 miles (356,877 km) away. [Visibility Maps for the Supermoon Lunar Eclipse (Gallery)]

The Sept. 27 event is therefore being called a "supermoon eclipse." The last such eclipse happened in 1982, and the next won't occur until 2033.

Quoting 199. pureet1948:



Could this Gulf low turn into something similar to Tropical Storm Lee of 2011, with 50 mph winds and high waves affecting Houston and Galveston?
Lee was a pretty weird storm. It was really a subtropical low before it reached the LA coast and remained so at landfall. It had a huge windfield that developed because of the stall offshore before landfall. Until this low actually develops and we see what it looks like, it's always possible. If it looks like Ida, it's probably not going to do anything to Texas.
Quoting 201. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good Evening everyone, missing my major hurricanes in the Atlantic. Seriously, feeling Tropically depressed. I understand these cause death and destruction, but wouldn't wish it on my worst enemies. It just feels so weird not even having at least one hurricane out there in September of all months, seriously it's like we have hit rock bottom here. I hate you Climate Change. I hate you El Nino if these are the reasons for this quiet season. If we rebound to a La Nina next year, then I think activity will pick up again, but one has to really wonder now have we officially ended the active era that began in 1995 and probably ended in 2012 with Hurricane Sandy? If that be the case then it might not be until 2025 until the next active decade begins. This stinks and really with the exception of Hurricane Danny this season has been downright awful and boring from development and intensification stand point. Obviously, I don't want anybody to get hurt, but I would take a 2010 season over this junk of a hurricane season. And that's just how I really feel.

Now onto something more interesting and exciting for us Science nerds:

Sunday's "Supermoon" Total Lunar Eclipse: When and Where to See It



On the evening of Sept. 27, the moon will once again become immersed in the Earth's shadow, resulting in a total lunar eclipse─the fourth such event in the last 17 months,

As with all lunar eclipses, the region of visibility for Sunday's blood-moon lunar eclipse will encompass more than half of our planet. Nearly 1 billion people in the Western Hemisphere, nearly 1.5 billion throughout much of Europe and Africa and perhaps another 500 million in western Asia will be able to watch as the Harvest Full Moon becomes a shadow of its former self and morphs into a glowing coppery ball.

The lunar eclipse will also feature the "biggest" full moon (in apparent size) of 2015, since the moon will also be at perigee on the very same day─its closest point to the Earth─221,753 miles (356,877 km) away. [Visibility Maps for the Supermoon Lunar Eclipse (Gallery)]

The Sept. 27 event is therefore being called a "supermoon eclipse." The last such eclipse happened in 1982, and the next won't occur until 2033.


Yes, this has been a definite 10 on the Hurricane Season Suckiness Scale. The worst part is that this Gulf low will probably be approaching close enough to make the sky overcast on Sunday so I won't even be able to see the lunar eclipse. I'm going to be looking for someone to pepper spray if that happens. :-)
So what in the world do we call this, seems to be heading the wrong way, lol.

Look at the shift in the predominant tracks in 10 years, from the Gulf, to the Atlantic, to East Atlantic. That's a distinct pattern change we have seen in 10 years. Along with the drop off in intensity of the storms as well. Note nothing in the Caribbean has formed this year because of record levels of windshear.

2005:



2010:



2015:



Quoting 197. FunnelVortex:



The girl won't give up... ...she knows she *must* be the "I" storm
The NHC doesn't think so. You can't get a much worse forecast discussion if you expect Ida to become the "I" storm -

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015
1100 PM AST THU SEP 24 2015

The center of Ida, like most of the Atlantic tropical cyclones this
year at some point, is exposed to southwest of a bursting area
of deep convection. The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt in
accordance with the latest TAFB Dvorak classification. A combination
of shear and dry air aloft is expected to persist near Ida for the
next few days. These conditions are forecast to cause the cyclone
to gradually weaken. Although the cyclone could move into a
slightly more favorable environment at long range, there isn't
likely to be much left of Ida to take advantage of the conditions.
The latest NHC forecast is close to the model consensus for the
first few days, then is below that aid at days 3 and 4, leaning more
heavily on the weaker solutions of the HWRF, GFS and ECMWF models.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF now show Ida opening up into a trough by
day 5, and the official forecast follows that trend.

Ida is moving erratically north-northwestward at about 4 knots. The
depression should turn northwestward tomorrow and head in that
general direction for a couple of days due to a weak subtropical
ridge forming over the central Atlantic. After that time, the
cyclone is expected to be a shallow system, and will likely move
to the west or west-southwest as it is steered by a strong low-level
ridge. The guidance has shifted leftward, which makes sense for a
weaker cyclone, and the official NHC prediction follows suit.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 21.3N 45.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 21.9N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 22.8N 46.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 23.7N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 24.4N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 24.3N 49.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z 24.0N 51.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Sar even the dreaded "I" name storm is struggling, the sign of the times. 10-20 years from now when we look back at these hurricane seasons, we will be like wow 2005 was this apocalyptic hurricane season, which caused so much devastation not even words could describe it and then we will be like wow 2015 was a hurricane season in which the Atlantic was turned into a Desert. It's like who turned the lights off and shut off the engine.
Quoting 205. ProgressivePulse:

So what in the world do we call this, seems to be heading the wrong way, lol.


We call this a trough of low pressure coming in off the Atlantic with a trailing warm front. It's bringing mostly light rain except for right along the coast, and even there I haven't seen reports of unusually heavy rain given this storm. In other seasons, 97L might have become a TS or even a hurricane before making landfall. Not this season.

Short warning about the perigee moon, you can not see the difference between perigee and apogee with your eye. Only a camera can tell the difference.

Also, Uranus will be visible, here's my mother's reply after I queried about the planet's visibility:

If you have a decent sky, yes, you can see the 7th planet. It will look like a star, though, so a good finding chart would be needed. Technically you can see it with the naked eye under a perfect (Andean Chile, say) sky. But no one knew it as a "wandering star" before it was seen through a telescope, so even pre-electric light people didn't notice it. It *will* show up as a faint dot on a (try 5-10 seconds) photograph of sufficiently wide angle if you want to include the Moon. If you have binoculars, try the attached finder. I'd hop from the Moon using the two somewhat bright stars to the left, and then find the pattern of stars around Uranus. For a challenge, find asteroid Vesta below the Moon....it's only slightly dimmer than Uranus.
Quoting 208. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Sar even the dreaded "I" name storm is struggling, the sign of the times. 10-20 years from now when we look back at these hurricane seasons, we will be like wow 2005 was this apocalyptic hurricane season, which caused so much devastation not even words could describe it and then we will be like wow 2015 was a hurricane season in which the Atlantic was turned into a Desert. It's like who turned the lights off and shut off the engine.
Yes, it is indeed, especially for the TS that had the best chance, at one time, to become a decent Atlantic hurricane. I wonder if the CMC is still going to bring Ida back as a 969 mb hurricane again?

Having lived long enough to have seen the change from active to quiet and back again, my unscientific but personally held belief is that the current active period ended in 2011. We are well into the transition now. While a quiet period doesn't mean there won't ever be any bad storms, I'm afraid you young folks are in for about 15 years of tough sledding when it comes to exciting hurricane seasons.
Quoting 44. SLU:




Several tropical cyclones occured near/over the Lesser Antilles in october lately... so there is a chance... but it is very slight this year.

Do you remember Jose in 1999, Omar in 2008, Tomas in 2010, Rafael in 2012, and Gonzalo in 2014 ?
Fewer Hurricanes? Bring it On!
By John Morales



I’ll never forget 2005. My exhaustion was like nothing I had felt before. I was chief meteorologist of Telemundo 51 in Miami, a tropically-aware city where any disturbance in the Atlantic basin – even when it’s 3,000 miles away – is news.

That hyperactive hurricane season yielded 28 tropical storms, including infamous Katrina as well as the last major hurricane to strike the United States – Wilma. Both of those hurricanes made landfall in South Florida. I had to help prepare my family, guide an audience through the threats, and then deal with all the difficulties of the aftermaths.

Mother Nature didn’t care, though. Even after Wilma, another half-dozen new storms formed. All of those were named using the Greek alphabet (Alpha through Zeta) because the normal list of names had run out. By the end of the season I was mentally drained, and even felt a degree of physical exhaustion.

Many more active seasons followed. Fifteen or more tropical storms formed in 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012, which included another infamous system named Sandy. Since then, we’ve seen the number of tropical cyclones, especially the number of hurricanes, diminish considerably. For example, after 2012’s 10 hurricanes, 2013 only yielded two; 2014’s totals were eight storms and six hurricanes. So far in 2015 we’ve had seven tropical storms and two hurricanes (with a strong El Niño).

Earlier this month, colleagues from Colorado State University (CSU), led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, proposed that the most recent cycle of hurricane hyperactivity in the Atlantic might have come to an end. The natural cycle of Atlantic tropical activity is controlled by the salinity of the water in the North Atlantic. Salty water is heavier and sinks more rapidly, which accelerates a conveyor belt of ocean currents known as the thermohaline circulation (THC).

When this worldwide circulation is moving a bit faster, warm (less dense) water remains near the surface and is heated by the sun. This results in a period of warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the main tropical cyclone development region (MDR) of the Atlantic basin between Africa and the Caribbean, which leads to a higher number of storms and hurricanes.

Each period of warmer water in the MDR tends to last 25 years, followed by another 25 years of cooler sea surface temperatures. But, this being a natural process, the cycle doesn’t always last exactly two and a half decades. Some cycles can be shorter, some longer.

Klotzbach and the CSU team have observed more fresh (less salty) water in the North Atlantic near Greenland in recent years. In addition, the number and intensity of storms is decreasing. The amount of wind energy as calculated by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index has dropped considerably since 2012, and contrasts sharply with that observed in the 1995-2012 active period.



So, can I thank my lucky stars and look forward to 20 or 30 years of relative inactivity in the Atlantic? Not so fast! Another prominent hurricane researcher – Kerry Emanuel from MIT – has challenged Klotzbach because he doesn’t believe in the connection between ocean temperature and salinity. Emanuel thinks that quiet decades in the 1970’s and 1980’s were connected to pollution in the atmosphere, which cut down on solar radiation and kept the ocean surface cooler. The air is much cleaner nowadays (believe it or not), and therefore more solar radiation is warming the sea surface.

Either way, I’m always reminded that it only takes one hurricane to cause ruin. Regardless of how active or inactive the next few years are, Miamians will always have to be prepared for hurricanes. Regardless of where you are, preparedness is everyone’s responsibility.
Quoting 178. BayFog:


I'm going with one that started out near Panama, but I don't think it will amount to a raging storm.
Well, sure it will. Look at the size of that baby...uh...well, not quite as big now...actually, it's dissipating as I write. I don't think you're going to be our grand two cookie prize winner. :-)
Preparedness is the ONLY hedge bet against the Hurricane.

216. SLU
Quoting 212. CaribBoy:



Several tropical cyclones occured near/over the Lesser Antilles in october lately... so there is a chance... but it is very slight this year.

Do you remember Jose in 1999, Omar in 2008, Tomas in 2010, Rafael in 2012, and Gonzalo in 2014 ?


Every last one of them. Jose was predicted to pass through the windwards at first but it just kept on moving more northward
Quoting 215. Patrap:

Preparedness is the ONLY hedge bet against the Hurricane.


Yep, you know it Pat, you have been through quite a bit of them and have experience. We used to apply duct tapes to the window whenever we heard a storm was coming, then found out how that it was a common misperception to think the windows wouldn't get blown in, it might have prevented the window from shattering but wouldn't have prevented it from getting blown in, so we went and bought the plywood from good old Home Depot, still have them in the garage back home in case we need them.
Quoting 191. sar2401:

It would be nice to see a link so I can read the whole article, but I'd certainly be cautious about weather forecasts from a meteorologist employed by what I assume is Citi's gas futures trading group. There has been a lot of shorting of natural gas futures in the last month based on the supernova El Nino. I suspect Citi hasn't learned to trust the STS Amazing Godzilla El Nino Forecast Center yet, and may have been caught flat footed on the long side of the futures. It's little tidbits like this that gas futures moving back in the direction that lets Citi dump their position while the little people get the shaft. :-)


Is it possible to forward an email to a WU-mail address? That's how I got the article. It's a PDF attachment that my father sent me. He does investment work for the state of Tennessee, so clearly he's looking for second opinions. According to Citi, they were nearly spot on with their forecast from last year made at the same time.
Quoting 216. SLU:



Every last one of them. Jose was predicted to pass through the windwards at first but it just kept on moving more northward
If you follow all the forecast about Ida, changing every six hour, from becoming a monster in the middle of the Atlantic, then to become a strong tropical storm, , then to be a weaker tS moving N, then NE, then, retain TS strength,, then it change for a TD, that would regain TS, storm status., now a TD that will become a remnant low.. MY conclusion, there is a long way to walk to forecast the tropics in a Super 'NINO" YEAR...
221. MahFL
Quoting 178. BayFog:


I'm going with one that started out near Panama, but I don't think it will amount to a raging storm.


No one is forecasting a raging storm, there will be a lot of shear in the Gulf.
Quoting 221. MahFL:



No one is forecasting a raging storm, there will be a lot of shear in the Gulf.
The "raging storm" thing was part of joke in my original post. Go back and read it and you'll see what I mean. You've got to lighten up sometimes before you end up with a terrible ulcer.:-)
We've had on-off rainfall here until this evening, now a pretty steady rainfall since 7PM, should be like this until Saturday midday. Not sure how gusty it will get this weekend but the flash flooding threat should increase tomorrow.
Quoting 221. MahFL:



No one is forecasting a raging storm, there will be a lot of shear in the Gulf.


Even the CMC dropped the low to ~998 mb landfalling near AL, meanwhile has Ida nearing major status.

It looks pretty hostile out there for the foreseeable future.
Quoting 219. Astrometeor:



Is it possible to forward an email to a WU-mail address? That's how I got the article. It's a PDF attachment that my father sent me. He does investment work for the state of Tennessee, so clearly he's looking for second opinions. According to Citi, they were nearly spot on with their forecast from last year made at the same time.
Is there a link to the original PDF? I've searched the web and haven't been able to find it so far. I imagine Citi would say they were spot on last year as long as you don't look too hard at actual results. Not saying they weren't, but I'm waiting for the first futures group to say "Hey, we blew it last year, but, trust us, we've got it nailed this year". :-)
Quoting 224. win1gamegiantsplease:



Even the CMC dropped the low to ~998 mb landfalling near AL, meanwhile has Ida nearing major status.

It looks pretty hostile out there for the foreseeable future.
BWAhahaha....Ida as a hurricane, let alone a major. Only the CMC comes up with this kind of thing. OTOH, if they are forecasting the Gulf low to make landfall near Alabama, I'm completely on board with this excellent model. :-)
Quoting 218. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Yep, you know it Pat, you have been through quite a bit of them and have experience. We used to apply duct tapes to the window whenever we heard a storm was coming, then found out how that it was a common misperception to think the windows wouldn't get blown in, it might have prevented the window from shattering but wouldn't have prevented it from getting blown in, so we went and bought the plywood from good old Home Depot, still have them in the garage back home in case we need them.
Plywood futures in 2003 would have been an excellent hedge bet against hurricanes. I'll have to look up what actually happened, but I imagine anyone longon plywood futures for 2004--2005 in 2003 probably owns a nice island somewhere with several attractive servants to take of his or her's every need.
Quoting 225. sar2401:

Is there a link to the original PDF? I've searched the web and haven't been able to find it so far. I imagine Citi would say they were spot on last year as long as you don't look too hard at actual results. Not saying they weren't, but I'm waiting for the first futures group to say "Hey, we blew it last year, but, trust us, we've got it nailed this year". :-)


Not that I'm aware of. The title of the PDF is "E&P Stock Perspectives Per Underlying Commodity Price Drivers"
Quoting 223. win1gamegiantsplease:

We've had on-off rainfall here until this evening, now a pretty steady rainfall since 7PM, should be like this until Saturday midday. Not sure how gusty it will get this weekend but the flash flooding threat should increase tomorrow.
I hope your flood threat will stay under control. Except for the usual spots in Charleston, the QPF doesn't look bad now, with enough rain inland to fill up the wells without flooding people out. I'm just hoping our Gulf low is friendly and brings me some rain next week. I'm getting extremely jealous of all you guys in the right places. :-)
Quoting 228. Astrometeor:



Not that I'm aware of. The title of the PDF is "E&P Stock Perspectives Per Underlying Commodity Price Drivers"
That's just earnings and price for nat gas stocks as one of the drivers for nat gas futures. This may be analysis only sent to clients and not available to the public on the web. Sometimes Citi charges some big fees to be in the illegal price manipulation...dang, I meant looking at drivers for nat gas prices...and Citi only does well because of their excellent analysts, not because of illegal price manipulation. Citi would never do that.
Quoting 216. SLU:



Every last one of them. Jose was predicted to pass through the windwards at first but it just kept on moving more northward


INITIAL 17/2100Z 10.0N 51.5W 30 KTS
12HR VT 18/0600Z 10.0N 53.2W 35 KTS
24HR VT 18/1800Z 10.5N 55.3W 45 KTS
36HR VT 19/0600Z 11.0N 57.5W 55 KTS
48HR VT 19/1800Z 12.0N 60.0W 65 KTS
72HR VT 20/1800Z 14.5N 63.5W 75 KTS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 15.9N 60.0W 70 KTS
12HR VT 20/1200Z 16.7N 61.6W 75 KTS
24HR VT 21/0000Z 17.8N 63.5W 80 KTS
36HR VT 21/1200Z 18.8N 65.5W 85 KTS
48HR VT 22/0000Z 20.3N 67.0W 95 KTS
72HR VT 23/0000Z 23.5N 69.0W 95 KTS

Yes, and the initial NHC track for Gonzalo was also south of where the storm ended up..

However, I was expecting a more northward move for Tomas... like Jose did in 99.
Quoting 220. HuracanTaino:

If you follow all the forecast about Ida, changing every six hour, from becoming a monster in the middle of the Atlantic, then to become a strong tropical storm, , then to be a weaker tS moving N, then NE, then, retain TS strength,, then it change for a TD, that would regain TS, storm status., now a TD that will become a remnant low.. MY conclusion, there is a long way to walk to forecast the tropics in a Super 'NINO" YEAR...
Pretty good summary of Ida up 'till now. Ida was supposed to be the "Big One", the one that all the other junk storms had cleared the path for, the one thaws going to be the "I" storm. Instead, it looks like it will be a remnant low in three days, and I suspect before then. Not to break my arm patting myself on the back, but this was exactly what I expected from Ida, and I've said so since it was an invest. This is just not the year for CV storms to become The Storm. Still a chance out of the Caribbean though.
Quoting 205. ProgressivePulse:

So what in the world do we call this, seems to be heading the wrong way, lol.


We would call it a retrograding well-defined upper-level low.
Quoting 229. sar2401:

I hope your flood threat will stay under control. Except for the usual spots in Charleston, the QPF doesn't look bad now, with enough rain inland to fill up the wells without flooding people out. I'm just hoping our Gulf low is friendly and brings me some rain next week. I'm getting extremely jealous of all you guys in the right places. :-)


Raining heavier now but as predicted most of the worst spots look to be offshore.

Charleston and flooding are basically an old married couple.
Tornado alert
Quoting 235. MeteorologistTV:

Tornado alert
Very helpful. I'll keep alert for any around here.
upgraded to "Category Three" named typhoon..
Raw Dvorak is stating 6.0 with a Large Eye Scene

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON DUJUAN (1521)
15:00 PM JST September 25 2015
================================
In Sea East of the Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Dujuan (970 hPa) located at 19.5N 131.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Storm Force Winds
===========
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
210 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 21.2N 130.0E - 75 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Sea South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 22.8N 127.6E - 75 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 24.1N 124.5E - 75 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Sakishima islands waters
Quoting 205. ProgressivePulse:

So what in the world do we call this, seems to be heading the wrong way, lol.




It's been real windy (15-25mph gusts)with bands of moderate rain in the Greenville area tonight.
Quoting 238. EricfromGreenvilleSC:



It's been real windy (15-25mph gusts)with bands of moderate rain in the Greenville area tonight.




woke me up here in Wilmington area lol but i usually get up about now
Good morning hello from Germany.
Look at this current forecast for my town Mainz (near Frankfurt) for the days to come (GFS based; 18C=64F): not very eventful, lol:



Calmness is due to high "Netti":


Heavy rains in parts of eastern and southeastern Europe though, due to "Patrick":


Have a nice Friday!
FACTBOX - Deaths, economic losses caused by disasters fall in 2014
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Thu, 24 Sep 2015 12:31 GMT
BARCELONA, Sept 24 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Last year, 94 countries were affected by 315 natural disasters - the lowest annual figure for the decade from 2005 to 2014, data in a report from the Red Cross showed on Thursday.
The annual World Disasters Report also showed that 2014 had the lowest death rate from disasters since 1986. ...

In 2014, 87 percent of disasters were climate-related, with floods and landslides causing 49 percent of all natural disasters. Drought accounted for 37 percent of the total number of people affected by disasters. ...
More see link above.
Quoting 201. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good Evening everyone, missing my major hurricanes in the Atlantic. Seriously, feeling Tropically depressed. I understand these cause death and destruction, but wouldn't wish it on my worst enemies. It just feels so weird not even having at least one hurricane out there in September of all months, seriously it's like we have hit rock bottom here. I hate you Climate Change. I hate you El Nino if these are the reasons for this quiet season. If we rebound to a La Nina next year, then I think activity will pick up again, but one has to really wonder now have we officially ended the active era that began in 1995 and probably ended in 2012 with Hurricane Sandy? If that be the case then it might not be until 2025 until the next active decade begins. This stinks and really with the exception of Hurricane Danny this season has been downright awful and boring from development and intensification stand point. Obviously, I don't want anybody to get hurt, but I would take a 2010 season over this junk of a hurricane season. And that's just how I really feel.

Now onto something more interesting and exciting for us Science nerds:

Sunday's "Supermoon" Total Lunar Eclipse: When and Where to See It



On the evening of Sept. 27, the moon will once again become immersed in the Earth's shadow, resulting in a total lunar eclipse─the fourth such event in the last 17 months,

As with all lunar eclipses, the region of visibility for Sunday's blood-moon lunar eclipse will encompass more than half of our planet. Nearly 1 billion people in the Western Hemisphere, nearly 1.5 billion throughout much of Europe and Africa and perhaps another 500 million in western Asia will be able to watch as the Harvest Full Moon becomes a shadow of its former self and morphs into a glowing coppery ball.

The lunar eclipse will also feature the "biggest" full moon (in apparent size) of 2015, since the moon will also be at perigee on the very same day─its closest point to the Earth─221,753 miles (356,877 km) away. [Visibility Maps for the Supermoon Lunar Eclipse (Gallery)]

The Sept. 27 event is therefore being called a "supermoon eclipse." The last such eclipse happened in 1982, and the next won't occur until 2033.




I'm very excited, as we've had consistant forecast for clear weather through the weekend (our forecasts which only never changes every hour when they're very certain a strong high is on the way). Can still get foggy though at night, but hoping to actually see and photograph both. Will be scouring the Photographers Ephemeris to see if the moon will be rising directly by or behind anything interesting now LOL
Good morning all. Looks like this retrograding low is going to impact everywhere from the Carolinas to Guatemala.... and the giant ULL is still spinning out near 67W. I don't see much chance for tropical formation in the WAtl while these two entities are in the area.....

impressive stream of moisture coming off the epac over the nw carib cuba onto the bahamas. black & white water vapor. atm our tropical low does not have a chance.
Good morning to our Eurobloggers!
Quoting 242. mitthbevnuruodo:



I'm very excited, as we've had consistant forecast for clear weather through the weekend (our forecasts which only never changes every hour when they're very certain a strong high is on the way). Can still get foggy though at night, but hoping to actually see and photograph both. Will be scouring the Photographers Ephemeris to see if the moon will be rising directly by or behind anything interesting now LOL
Unless we get a clearing pattern for Sunday, it's very likely I won't see much of anything :-(

I admit I'm looking forward to the pics, though. :-)
Quoting 244. islander101010:

impressive stream of moisture coming off the epac over the nw carib cuba onto the bahamas. black & white water vapor. atm our tropical low does not have a chance.
Looks like even the Caymans will get some rain ..... :-)
Quoting 247. LargoFl:





ohhh so the models picking up on EP disturbance....interesting
Quoting 248. K8eCane:




ohhh so the modelspicking up on EP disturbance....interesting
good morning,yes they were hinting at this a few days ago,we'll see if it verifies over the weekend.
255. beell
Quoting 196. Patrap:

The auricle has spoken.

LoL


i heard that...
Good Morning, I see nothing happening with this low in the SW Carib.
Quoting 244. islander101010:

impressive stream of moisture coming off the epac over the nw carib cuba onto the bahamas. black & white water vapor. atm our tropical low does not have a chance.
Good Morning,

Possible tornado touchdown in Charleston, SC this morning..NWS will go out later to survey the area to confirm..
Quoting 249. LargoFl:

good morning,yes they were hinting at this a few days ago,we'll see if it verifies over the weekend.
Morning k8te & Largo .... 92E in the GOM seems more likely than anything forming on this side of Central America atm....

The rain is down again here .... I was hoping to be gone before it started .... :o/



000
FXUS62 KILM 251016
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
616 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TODAY...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF SUNDAY AND MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL REMAIN CLOUDY. A
COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM FRIDAY...LATEST OBS SHOW OFFSHORE LOW LIKELY MAKING
LANDFALL OVER THE SC COASTLINE...WHERE IT WILL CONTINUE ITS DRIFT
FURTHER INLAND. HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR THE
NEARLY-UNIVERSAL COVERAGE WE WILL SEE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

YET ANOTHER WET DAY WITH NO SUN TO BE SEEN. NO MOON EITHER...FOR
THAT MATTER. GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT A DEEP
PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT UP FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SE OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTLINE. A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THIS LOW
WILL DRIFT ASHORE SOMETIME TODAY AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR LOUISIANA. THE LOW
MAY DRIFT BACK OFFSHORE LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
CHANGE THE OVERALL PATTERN. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE
CONTENT...P/W VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES OR SO THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT...BELIEVE THAT CATEGORICAL POPS ARE A NO-BRAINER. AS IT LOOKS
CERTAIN THAT EVERY SPOT IN THE CWA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN...HAVE
GONE WITH 100 POPS AND MODIFIED WORDING TO INDICATE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS. GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
COAST...HAVE LEFT MOST PLACES WITHOUT THUNDER. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST SO HAVE INDICATED THUNDER
A POSSIBILITY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. ONE TO TWO INCH EVENT TOTAL QPF
FOR THE NEAR TERM DOES NOT SEEM UNREASONABLE GIVEN ABOVE SCENARIO.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
401 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

A BROAD TROUGH IS STARTING TO SHOW UP IN REGIONAL BUOY
OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF...AHEAD A SHORT WAVE MID TO UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODERATE E WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WITH 2 TO 4 FT...WITH LIGHT E WINDS AND 1 TO 3 FT ELSEWHERE.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY A LITTLE MORE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF THROUGH SAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES SHARPER AND MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

SOME UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES REGARDING THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH MID WEEK. WHILE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW PRES IN THE S CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY...THERE IS NO CLEAR
CONSENSUS ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OR MOVEMENT. TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THE LOW IS POSSIBLE...BUT THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE. THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS FOLLOWING THE GFS A LITTLE MORE IN TIMING AND
POSITION...SHOWING LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE N EAST GULF BY EARLY
TUE...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCE IN INTENSITY. THE UKMET AND
THE EC ENSEMBLE HINT AT A MORE WESTERN SOLUTION AND ARE ALSO
WEAKER THAN THE GFS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE GFS BUT
MODIFIED TO LIMIT WIND AND SEA DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUE IN THE
NORTHERN GULF.

Probably a major rain event only and mostly East 0f Miss. River.


two yellow x now!!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located south of the Guatemala-Mexico
border is producing disorganized cloudiness and shower activity.
Any development of this system is expected to be limited while it
drifts northwestward during the next few days due to possible
interaction with land and its proximity to a developing disturbance
located to its west. Regardless of tropical cyclone development,
this system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of El
Salvador, southern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

INVEST 93e SOON

A low pressure system is expected to form during the next day or two
near a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
This low is likely to develop into a tropical depression by early
next week and move northward or northeastward toward the southern
coast of Mexico. Interests in that region should monitor the
progress of this disturbance during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

invest 92E
Dang! Maybe I'll get used to being bored!
Quoting 211. sar2401:

Yes, it is indeed, especially for the TS that had the best chance, at one time, to become a decent Atlantic hurricane. I wonder if the CMC is still going to bring Ida back as a 969 mb hurricane again?

Having lived long enough to have seen the change from active to quiet and back again, my unscientific but personally held belief is that the current active period ended in 2011. We are well into the transition now. While a quiet period doesn't mean there won't ever be any bad storms, I'm afraid you young folks are in for about 15 years of tough sledding when it comes to exciting hurricane seasons.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ida, located about 1200 miles east-northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands.

A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea and
Central America. Development is not expected during the next couple
of days while this system moves northwestward across Central
America and the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface low is forecast to
develop once the disturbance reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday, but environmental conditions are likely to be only somewhat
conducive for the formation of a tropical cyclone early next week
while the low moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
265. beell
Quoting 260. canehater1:


Probably a major rain event only and mostly East 0f Miss. River.


Some threat for a few brief tornadoes just to the east of the low pressure center as it approaches the coast. A decent amount of veering of the wind field w/height from bottom to top.

Probably...maybe...Wednesday afternoon along the AL/western FL panhandle coastline.

Quoting 257. ncstorm:

Good Morning,

Possible tornado touchdown in Charleston, SC this morning..NWS will go out later to survey the area to confirm..


Confirmed touchdown on John's Island and West Ashley. Was unexpected. Supercell storm really blew up to 55,000 ft. once it came onshore.




INVEST 92E maybe going in the GOM to
Quoting 268. hurricanes2018:




INVEST 92E maybe going in the GOM to
Quoting 248. K8eCane:




ohhh so the models picking up on EP disturbance....interesting
Quoting 248. K8eCane:




ohhh so the models picking up on EP disturbance....interesting
The last storm I remember that made the trip to the gulf from the Pacific was Hurricane Cosme, and became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison in June 1989. There have been others, but it is quite rare.
Wilmington, NC heavy rain temp around 71F AT 8:23AM

Watch these very warm anomalies @ 100m to 150m head toward the South American Coast. This OKW also has a strong WWB to help pile very warm water into Nino 1&2. This El-Nino is about to be 1997's El-Nino on stereiods.



.
Quoting 274. StormTrackerScott:

Watch these very warm anomalies @ 100m to 150m head toward the South American Coast. This OKW also has a strong WWB to help pile very warm water into Nino 1&2. This El-Nino is about to be 1997's El-Nino on stereiods.




Morning Scott..Moving pretty quick too..Cannot help but wonder how all this comes together with the extreme winter pattern that may be in place...I have the salt ready..:)



OMG OMG I DID IT!!
OK.... I wanna see if Presslord (as an upstanding WUnut) posts pictures of the tornado there which came from the "retrograding well-defined upper-level low"... PS, he reports that he is OK!
Po'ore Ida...

Quoting 177. BayFog:


Maybe instead these should be offered up as suggestions for solar storms. It's bound to happen one day---naming them that is.


Solar storms? No, I'd prefer to name Winter Storms.
Quoting 279. CaicosRetiredSailor:

OK.... I wanna see if Presslord (as an upstanding WUnut) posts pictures of the tornado there which came from the "retrograding well-defined upper-level low"... PS, he reports that he is OK!
Greetings CRS..You and Press come visit us here more. Dont see ya much...like back when..:)
Quoting 276. hydrus:

Morning Scott..Moving pretty quick too..Cannot help but wonder how all this comes together with the extreme winter pattern that may be in place...I have the salt ready..:)


Yeah quite remarkable. We already have seen what has happened in Nino 3.4 recently with the highest sea surface anomalies ever for September. Now this warm water is rushing toward South America where values jumped to 2.6C per the CPC this past Monday. Notice how far off the CFSv2 is now. Not even close to being right!

We are currently @ 2.6C. The graph below say we should be @ 2.0C and trending cooler not warmer like what is currently happening.



Current anomalies and notice now 4C anomalies surfacing close to South America.
Quoting 247. LargoFl:




Another Hermine 2010 situation perhaps?
Quoting 284. 62901IL:



Another Hermine 2010 situation perhaps?
yes, its something we may watch for in a few days and see if this track holds.
That Tornado completely destroyed at least one house on Johns island.This is at least an EF 2...
Wow Inland SC had some damage as well

Benedict College, Columbia, SC



Go to Judi Gatson's FB Page and see the Flooding in Columbia, SC

Quoting 284. 62901IL:



Another Hermine 2010 situation perhaps?


That would place two storms near each other in the Gulf at the same time.

Kind of like what the CMC shows in it's 00z run.

289. beell
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015/

SHORT/LONG TERM...
850 MB LOW OVER GEORGIA WILL MOVE WEST AND ADVECT DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALL BUT CUT OFF CHANCES
OF SH/TS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER GEORGIA
WILL MOVE NW AND WEAKEN ALOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN ONCE AGAIN TO
THE AREA BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE MERIDIONAL UPPER TROUGH FROM
MINNESOTA INTO TEXAS WILL DEEPEN AND DIG INTO NE MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO FEED NORTHWARD. THE BEST DIFLUENT AREA WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF CAUSING SFC PRESSURES TO DROP. THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW SHOULD FOLLOW THIS UPPER DIFLUENT AREA BUT SHEAR
PROFILES OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR A VERY HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO DEEPEN VERY MUCH. BUT A
HYBRID SYSTEM...FRONTOGENETIC SYSTEM WOULD NOT BE OFF THE TABLE.
PRESSURES WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF WHILE THE EASTERN GULF WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE
SFC LOW AND THE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC CAUSING A MUCH TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT HIGHER WIND SPEEDS.

THE MAIN ISSUE TO WATCH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAINFALL
PROBABILITIES AND TORNADIC ACTIVITY. OVER MARINE AREAS IT SHOULD
BE WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WHERE THE FEED OF
THIS MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THERE WILL BE QUITE A
PRECIP GRADIENT WITH THIS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THE MOISTURE FEED
IS FARTHER EAST...WE SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES. IF THE MOISTURE FEED IS FARTHER
WEST...THOSE NUNBERS RAMP UPWARD. THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WEAK DUE TO THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT
BUT THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE
RULED OUT.

New Orleans NWS Forecast Discussion
292. beell

Isthmus of Tehuantepec
Quoting 265. beell:



Some threat for a few brief tornadoes just to the east of the low pressure center as it approaches the coast. A decent amount of veering of the wind field w/height from bottom to top.

Probably...maybe...Wednesday afternoon along the AL/western FL panhandle coastline.


The Boys in Birmingham mentioned they were concerned about some low end tornadic activity Monday night into Tuesday for central AL. Whatever this low pressure in the Gulf turns out to be, it will be responsible for a surge of Gulf moisture, with forecast PWAT values about 2.3". This is in the 99th percentile for PW here in late September. This will occur at the same time as we get the strongly veering wind fields, so this may be the first semi-serious threat of tornadoes in about three months here. As long as the risk of tornadoes is reasonably low, and the risk also brings rain, I'll take it. The tropical/subtropical/extratropical/baroclinic low in the Gulf will be another thing to add to the mix, assuming it gets close enough. One thing for sure is my chances of seeing the lunar eclipse Sunday night are in the dumper. :-(
we have invest 92E AND invest 93E right next together
A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
portions of Central America. Development is not expected during the
next couple of days while this system moves northwestward across the
Yucatan Peninsula. A surface low could form once the disturbance
reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico in a few days, but environmental
conditions are not particularly favorable for significant
development early next week while the system moves northward over
the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent


A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and 92E will come together
Quoting 286. MeteorologistTV:

That Tornado completely destroyed at least one house on Johns island.This is at least an EF 2...
It would really help if you put your location in your profile, and mentioned where you are when you post about something as major as a tornado. I had no idea where "Johns Island" was until other members posted it was in Charleston SC.
Quoting 294. sar2401:

The Boys in Birmingham mentioned they were concerned about some low end tornadic activity Monday night into Tuesday for central AL. Whatever this low pressure in the Gulf turns out to be, it will be responsible for a surge of Gulf moisture, with forecast PWAT values about 2.3". This is in the 99th percentile for PW here in late September. This will occur at the same time as we get the strongly veering wind fields, so this may be the first semi-serious threat of tornadoes in about three months here. As long as the risk of tornadoes is reasonably low, and the risk also brings rain, I'll take it. The tropical/subtropical/extratropical/baroclinic low in the Gulf will be another thing to add to the mix, assuming it gets close enough. One thing for sure is my chances of seeing the lunar eclipse Sunday night are in the dumper. :-(


Expect these episodes to increase further as we head thru Fall. Sub Tropical jet should begin to get really active around week 2 or 3 in October if the Euro is to be believed.
Quoting 278. K8eCane:




OMG OMG I DID IT!!
There you go. You've now become our technology godess! :-)
Late Monday Night/Early Tuesday Morning along the coast..

300. FOREX
Quoting 293. LargoFl:


So are EP 92 and EP 93 two different entities?



watch invest92E EVERYONE!! look better this morning and going in the GOM
Speaking of tornadoes, yesterday I found my photo I thought I had lost of a violent tornado near Wellston, Oklahoma on May 19th, 2013.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
portions of Central America. Development is not expected during the
next couple of days while this system moves northwestward across the
Yucatan Peninsula. A surface low could form once the disturbance
reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico in a few days, but environmental
conditions are not particularly favorable for significant
development early next week while the system moves northward over
the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A surface low could form once the disturbance
reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico in a few days maybe a surface low from invest 92E!!
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
752 am CDT Friday Sep 25 2015

..sounding discussion...

A dry layer of air with a depth of 10000 feet is centered around
500mb this morning. Above and below this layer is where most of
the moisture is found that makes up the precipitable water value
of 1.41 inches. The inversion depth is similar to yesterday around
1200 feet...but it is a little stronger today. The atmosphere is
rather stable with no or very little sb and MLCAPE with a forecast
cape under 450 j/kg. Winds in the low levels are from the
northeast and then rotate around and blow from the west in the
upper levels. A peak wind speed of 25 knots was located at 42000
feet.

12z balloon info: there were no issues with the 100 minute flight
this morning. The balloon ascended to a height of 19.3 miles
above the ground and burst over Lake Pontchartrain just west of
Eden Isle 8.6 miles downrange from the office.

Ansorge

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 408 am CDT Friday Sep 25 2015/

Short/long term...

850 mb low over Georgia will move west and advect dry air into the
region today into the weekend. This will all but cut off chances
of sh/ts through at least Saturday. The upper low over Georgia
will move northwest and weaken alowing moisture to return once again to
the area by Sunday into Monday. The meridional upper trough from
Minnesota into Texas will deepen and dig into NE Mexico over the
weekend. This will set the stage for a very deep plume of tropical
moisture to feed northward. The best difluent area will move
northward over the eastern Gulf causing surface pressures to drop. The
attendant surface low should follow this upper difluent area but shear
profiles of 40 to 50 knots aloft will make for a very hostile
environment for a tropical system to deepen very much. But a
hybrid system...frontogenetic system would not be off The Table.
Pressures will be relatively low over much of the western and
central Gulf while the eastern Gulf will find itself between the
surface low and the high over the Atlantic causing a much tighter
pressure gradient and resultant higher wind speeds.

The main issue to watch with this system will be rainfall
probabilities and tornadic activity. Over marine areas it should
be winds and waterspouts. Will need to watch for where the feed of
this moisture moves into the northern Gulf. There will be quite a
precipitation gradient with this by early next week. If the moisture feed
is farther east...we see little in the way of rainfall and
slightly higher than normal tides. If the moisture feed is farther
west...those numbers ramp upward. The tropical nature of this
system should remain rather weak due to the hostile environment
but the synoptic evolution of a baroclinic system should not be
ruled out.
305. csmda
100% chance of rain on Monday in my part of the panhandle.
Quoting 300. FOREX:

So are EP 92 and EP 93 two different entities?
yes
309. csmda
How the heck do you get them to approve your avatar? I have been trying for over a year. Is someone even there anymore for this purpose?


INVEST 92E
According to the WU Tropical Page the current predicted path of Typhoon Dujuan is to make landfall on the continental mainland of China. The GFS model is showing no landfall and instead to get close to the mainland and turn northeast to Japan. Only the GFS model is listed. Which is more likely, the cone of probability or the GFS? edit: Does anyone have a link to more models?
Good Morning. Hard to believe that the worst of the rain from the low off the Carolinas moved from off-shore yesterday to the current blob battering the coast:

Quoting 309. csmda:

How the heck do you get them to approve your avatar? I have been trying for over a year. Is someone even there anymore for this purpose?


The same thing happened to me. I tried the process again after about a year and it was instantly approved. So, maybe just try the same thing you did a year ago again and you might have the same luck as me.
316. FOREX
Quoting 309. csmda:
Looks like Sar's comment from yesterday with regard the Gulf low starting in the E-Pac area and moving North into the Gulf was correct; I was hoping for an E-Pac storm sapping the energy away from the Atlantic/Caribbean side. Now it is going to boil down to shear in the Gulf over the next several days as to how much the low might develop. Here are the current levels: in the 20-30 knot range over the Eastern E-Pac and Yucatan region

New Zealand Deports Man Who Would Have Been First Climate Change Refugee
His lawyer said he couldn't return to Kiribati because it's "a hostile environment."


The man who could have been the world's first climate change refugee just got deported from the country where he had been seeking refuge for the past four years.


CREDIT: PLAN INTERNATIONAL AUSTRALIA/GETTY IMAGES
On Thursday, the New Zealand government sent Ioane Teitiota back to his home island nation of Kiribati, which faces engulfment from rising sea levels and continuous storm cycles. The 811-square-kilometer island nation, located almost halfway between Hawaii and Australia in the Pacific Ocean, is home to just over 100,000 people.

Teitiota had been seeking asylum in New Zealand since early 2012, after his family -- himself, his wife and three children -- faced deportation after his short-term work visa expired. Teitiota started off looking for a simple visa extension, but his lawyer pleaded for asylum on the grounds that Kiribati was facing extinction and Teitiota was a climate change refugee.

Teitiota's requests for asylum were not successful, and on July 20, New Zealand's Supreme Court threw out a final appeal request against Teitiota's deportation, noting that the case did not resemble a refugee case per United Nations Refugee Agency convention and protocol.

"In relation to the Refugee Convention, while Kiribati undoubtedly faces challenges, Mr Teitiota does not, if returned, face 'serious harm' and there is no evidence that the Government of Kiribati is failing to take steps to protect its citizens from the effects of environmental degradation that it can," the Supreme Court's judgment read.


more:..,
319. FOREX
Quoting 317. weathermanwannabe:

Looks like Sar's comment from yesterday with regard the Gulf low starting in the E-Pac area and moving North into the Gulf was correct; I was hoping for an E-Pac storm sapping the energy away from the Atlantic/Caribbean side. Now it is going to boil down to shear in the Gulf over the next several days as to how much the low might develop. Here are the current levels: in the 20-30 knot range over the Eastern E-Pac and Yucatan region


Going to be difficult for anything to develop.
Quoting 309. csmda:

How the heck do you get them to approve your avatar? I have been trying for over a year. Is someone even there anymore for this purpose?


Member since 1970?? What sorcery is this?
Quoting 320. LongIslandBeaches:



Member since 1970?? What sorcery is this?

EXACTLY- I noticed that a few weeks ago. Thank you for saying something!! I figured it was Al Gore, that guy who invented the internet.
Quoting 311. wxsample:

According to the WU Tropical Page the current predicted path of Typhoon Dujuan is to make landfall on the continental mainland of China. The GFS model is showing no landfall and instead to get close to the mainland and turn northeast to Japan. Only the GFS model is listed. Which is more likely, the cone of probability or the GFS? edit: Does anyone have a link to more models?
Always use the cone. It includes input from all the models plus the expert application of the models and synoptics to the forecast. You can find all the model information you need at Tropical Tidbits, Levi's site, who's also a member here. Don't not use any model in preference to the current forecast though.
Quoting 320. LongIslandBeaches:



Member since 1970?? What sorcery is this?
That's may be why his avatar isn't being processed. The 1970 date is the default when the program isn't picking up the correct date. He needs to contact customer support so they can fix his file.
Quoting 321. aquak9:


EXACTLY- I noticed that a few weeks ago. Thank you for saying something!! I figured it was Al Gore, that guy who invented the internet.


I saw it day before yesterday and wondered about it but got distracted before I could ask about it
Quoting 210. Astrometeor:

Short warning about the perigee moon, you can not see the difference between perigee and apogee with your eye. Only a camera can tell the difference.

Also, Uranus will be visible, here's my mother's reply after I queried about the planet's visibility:

If you have a decent sky, yes, you can see the 7th planet. It will look like a star, though, so a good finding chart would be needed. Technically you can see it with the naked eye under a perfect (Andean Chile, say) sky. But no one knew it as a "wandering star" before it was seen through a telescope, so even pre-electric light people didn't notice it. It *will* show up as a faint dot on a (try 5-10 seconds) photograph of sufficiently wide angle if you want to include the Moon. If you have binoculars, try the attached finder. I'd hop from the Moon using the two somewhat bright stars to the left, and then find the pattern of stars aroundb Uranus. For a challenge, find asteroid Vesta below the Moon....it's only slightly dimmer than Uranus.

Although it may be true that you cannot visually spot a difference in the apparent size of the moon's disc, it seems likely to me that the difference ought to result in a stronger bending of the sunlight through the Earth's atmosphere, intensifying the red-orange light at totality. Whether THAT difference is perceptible remains to be seen...so to speak.
326. csmda
Quoting 320. LongIslandBeaches:



Member since 1970?? What sorcery is this?


I have magic pants. Most people around here know this.
327. csmda
Quoting 323. sar2401:

That's may be why his avatar isn't being processed. The 1970 date is the default when the program isn't picking up the correct date. He needs to contact customer support so they can fix his file.


Last time I checked I was still female :p
12z NAM showing 3 lows: 2-in the gulf; and 1-east of the Bahamas.

Quoting 317. weathermanwannabe:

Looks like Sar's comment from yesterday with regard the Gulf low starting in the E-Pac area and moving North into the Gulf was correct; I was hoping for an E-Pac storm sapping the energy away from the Atlantic/Caribbean side. Now it is going to boil down to shear in the Gulf over the next several days as to how much the low might develop. Here are the current levels: in the 20-30 knot range over the Eastern E-Pac and Yucatan region


We'll see if I'm right once it actually happens. :-) As I said earlier, however, there's just not the organized energy in the western Caribbean to produce a low deep enough to transit land and get into the Gulf with any gas in the tank. The East Pac has all kinds of energy available, but it has to survive the passage over either Nicaragua or from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and then get into the Gulf. There's enough energy available for it to keep battering down the door until about Sunday night, when we should see a low in or close to the the GOM. Another interesting and bizarre twist of events this season,
Link

Thought this should be worth sharing with you guys.
They finally officially declared Tropical Storm Niala.

The officially declared track invokes the magical Hawaiian Force Field by swinging the storm south, based on some forecasted shear decoupling. Maintaining the prersent course, and noting what appears to be for the moment at least, rapidly intensifying convection, Niala would instead head straight into the Big Island.

Guess we'll see.
332. csmda
Quoting 329. sar2401:

We'll see if I'm right once it actually happens. :-) As I said earlier, however, there's just not the organized energy in the western Caribbean to produce a low deep enough to transit land and get into the Gulf with any gas in the tank. The East Pac has all kinds of energy available, but it has to survive the passage over either Nicaragua or from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and then get into the Gulf. There's enough energy available for it to keep battering down the door until about Sunday night, when we should see a low in or close to the the GOM. Another interesting and bizarre twist of events this season,


Agreed. But until all the models jump on board I am thinking it will be nothing but some thunderstorms along the gulf coast Monday. Hopefully they don't pick up on it, because that would be some seriously short notice for a tropical event.
Quoting 331. BayFog:

They finally officially declared Tropical Storm Niala.

The officially declared track invokes the magical Hawaiian Force Field by swinging the storm south, based on some forecasted shear decoupling. Maintaining the prersent course, and noting what appears to be for the moment at least, rapidly intensifying convection, Niala would instead head straight into the Big Island.

Guess we'll see.



A direct hit from a hurricane on the Big Island would be HISTORY in the making.

The last hurricane that hit Hawaii was a Category 4 that hit the northern islands.
Quoting 328. fmbill:

12z NAM showing 3 lows: 2-in the gulf; and 1-east of the Bahamas.


The NAM by itself is really not a good tropical model. A much better one to use is the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF), which includes input from the NAM. From the SPC site -

The SPC Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) is constructed by post-processing all 21 members of the NCEP SREF plus the 3-hour time lagged, operational NAM (for a total of 22 members) each 6 hours (03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC).

Lots more input and a much better model result than just the op NAM.
Quoting 312. tornadodude:



You have to complete the challenge course




But even if you do, it could still go the way of Washi's avatars :)
Quoting 330. Terri2003:

Link

Thought this should be worth sharing with you guys.
Yikes. Scary. But the scarier part is this: that wont be the last time...
Quoting 330. Terri2003:

Link

Thought this should be worth sharing with you guys.


Very crazy. That has happened once or twice to lakes on the Tampa Bay area. Don't know the cause.
Quoting 332. csmda:



Agreed. But until all the models jump on board I am thinking it will be nothing but some thunderstorms along the gulf coast Monday. Hopefully they don't pick up on it, because that would be some seriously short notice for a tropical event.
Yeah, the intensity is really in doubt right now. The track is just a matter of how far east or west it goes with the LA/MS border as the center point. It's probably not going to be more than 150 miles in either direction. Since there's no low, this is just from model projections, but I think they may actually be right this time. Trying to predict intensity when we don't even have a low is about the same as unicorn hunting during the lunar eclipse. It might be fun, but you're unlikely to bring home any meat for dinner. ;-)
Quoting 282. hydrus:

Greetings CRS..You and Press come visit us here more. Dont see ya much...like back when..:)

What can I say.... I'm "one of those" who spends my virtual bantering time on Facebook these days. (Where the default is "everyone on the planet" is on your ignore list until you choose to connect with them) 😎

Quoting 257. ncstorm:

Good Morning,

Possible tornado touchdown in Charleston, SC this morning..NWS will go out later to survey the area to confirm..
About 10 miles from our house, thank goodness people are safe but a good bit of damage to homes.
ATX forecast discussion:

PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD
LEANED TOWARDS THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE DRIER GFS THAT
SIMULATED A BROADER LOW THAT KEPT MOST QPF JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER...THE NON-GFS MODEL CONSENSUS...INCLUDING THE NAM AND
CANADIAN...HAS MERGED TO THE WETTER ECM SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN
POINTING TOWARDS A MORE FOCUSED LOW THAT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY TO
THE WEST. ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS ECM RUNS SUGGESTED THIS WOULD OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE LATEST RUN SHOWS THIS OCCURRING ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NAM AND CANADIAN LOOSELY AGREE WITH
THIS SOLUTION...ALBEIT A BIT FURTHER EAST...AND THE GFS AT THE
VERY LEAST DEPICTS A STATIONARY LOW INSTEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE ONE.
THUS...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN THE ECM SOLUTION AND 20-30
PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED IN FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY-MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BE INCREASED IF FUTURE MODEL CYCLES REMAIN CONSISTENT.
Quoting 337. Bucsboltsfan:



Very crazy. That has happened once or twice to lakes on the Tampa Bay area. Don't know the cause.


In Florida it's usually sink holes when the water table is low, and if ground water levels are low, a sink hole could "swallow" up the lake providing it's big enough.

Not sure about California though.
Quoting 322. sar2401:

Always use the cone. It includes input from all the models plus the expert application of the models and synoptics to the forecast. You can find all the model information you need at Tropical Tidbits, Levi's site


Thanks for the link to the web site. No worries, I don't use individual models or cones beyond 2 day or even less. I question the use of 5 day cones though.
The Euro shows this forming from a retrograding low that hit the Gulf Stream. Probably subtropical.

Even the CMC dropped the "Doom Run"

Quoting 250. tampabaymatt:




This is actually really good, the northern gulf coast could really use the rain, especially the western FL panhandle. We've only had 2 inches of rain here since I started school up again, that is only 2 inches in about 5 weeks, and I haven't recorded any rain in my gauge in nearly 3 weeks.


Am looking forward to a wet pattern.
Ida. She still has a circulation... defies all logic

Quoting 302. tornadodude:

Speaking of tornadoes, yesterday I found my photo I thought I had lost of a violent tornado near Wellston, Oklahoma on May 19th, 2013.


Yep...Looks violent...Hope I never see the likes of that here.
Quoting 339. CaicosRetiredSailor:


What can I say.... I'm "one of those" who spends my virtual bantering time on Facebook these days. (Where the default is "everyone on the planet" is on your ignore list until you choose to connect with them) 😎
I am not a user of facebook, but have it as a convenience for business transactions. Hope you are doing well.
Quoting 320. LongIslandBeaches:



Member since 1970?? What sorcery is this?


1/1/1970 0000 is the unix time zero. The unix timestamp is a 32 bit integer defining seconds elapsed since that time.

It will overflow sometime in 2037 (the unix Y2.037K problem) when it exceeds 2.1 billion, the maximum representable in a signed 32 bit integer.

tick.. tick.. tick.. tick..
Quoting 348. hydrus:

Yep...Looks violent...Hope I never see the likes of that here.


Those horizontal vortices are something else... Indicative of 200mph+ upward velocity.
Quoting 302. tornadodude:

Speaking of tornadoes, yesterday I found my photo I thought I had lost of a violent tornado near Wellston, Oklahoma on May 19th, 2013.




Woah, that looks awesome!

I see a suction vortex.

I always preferred the skinnier more photogenic twisters, but you really got quite a shot there. I just hope it didn't hurt anyone.

EDIT: I didn't know Oklahoma had so many trees :)
Quoting 330. Terri2003:

Link

Thought this should be worth sharing with you guys.
I hated Mountain Meadows when I was working as a consulting project manager with PG&E. It's one of the first reservoirs in the entire Feather River Project, and it's only there to supply wAter downstream to various hydro plants. When the Indian Ole Dam, which impounds Mountain Meadows, was built in 1924, here were almost no people living in the area. Since then, Westwood has grown up all around it and it's become a recreational lake, even though that's not its purpose, and PG&E has no requirement to maintain any certain level of water. The people who live around the lake were constantly filing complaints with the PUC about not having enough water in the lake to maintain the fish, but they are all stock, with no native fish in the reservoir. There's an outlet gate that controls outflow into a penstock. The reservoir was probably no more than a couple of feet deep when this happened. The lowest levels of any reservoir is where all the silt and trash settles out. I suspect enough junk was clogging the gate that it wouldn't close on schedule using the SCADA equipment. By the time the maintenance guys got out there to rake out the trash and close the gate manually, the water was gone. One more victim of the California drought.
Quoting 302. tornadodude:

Speaking of tornadoes, yesterday I found my photo I thought I had lost of a violent tornado near Wellston, Oklahoma on May 19th, 2013.




I am glad that the tornado we got hit with last night was no where near this size....

I think 93E will combine with our disturbance and develop. Who else thinks so.
We are also monitoring the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. An upper-level trough of low pressure will develop over South Texas over the weekend and direct some tropical energy to the north. Long-range global models show this energy developing an area of low pressure over the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. The upper-level low over South Texas will cause strong southwesterly wind shear over this area, which would be a negative factor for strengthening. The wind shear would tend to string out or stretch the developing low to the northeast or even shear the upper part of the system off to the northeast over the Deep South, while the lower part remains over the Gulf.
Quoting 352. FunnelVortex:



Woah, that looks awesome!

I see a suction vortex.

I always preferred the skinnier more photogenic twisters, but you really got quite a shot there. I just hope it didn't hurt anyone.



Yeah I do as well.

Somehow, this one did not kill anyone. One 50 miles or so south in Shawnee, Oklahoma did.


Radar at the time of my photo

Quoting 346. Jedkins01:



This is actually really good, the northern gulf coast could really use the rain, especially the western FL panhandle. We've only had 2 inches of rain here since I started school up again, that is only 2 inches in about 5 weeks, and I haven't recorded any rain in my gauge in nearly 3 weeks.


Am looking forward to a wet pattern.
Although I'd feel better if it showed the rain a little further inland instead of mostly offshore. That's what I'm afraid might happen with this low. It'll spin around in the Gulf and remain just far enough offshore so those of us just a little more inland get very little rain. We'll see what happens, and if the low turns out to be tropical, subtropical or baroclinic. All kinds of possibilities with this one...but I just want the end product to bring me some rain! :-)
Quoting 357. tornadodude:



Yeah I do as well.

Somehow, this one did not kill anyone. One 50 miles or so south in Shawnee, Oklahoma did.


Radar at the time of my photo


Is there a hook echo in there somewhere? I'm having a hard time seeing it. :-)
Quoting 359. sar2401:

Is there a hook echo in there somewhere? I'm having a hard time seeing it. :-)



Yeah it's a tough one lol

Quoting 357. tornadodude:



Yeah I do as well.

Somehow, this one did not kill anyone. One 50 miles or so south in Shawnee, Oklahoma did.


Radar at the time of my photo




Debris ball there.
Quoting 327. csmda:



Last time I checked I was still female :p
Ah. Sorry about that. Your profile doesn't have a bio, and the only pictures I see are from what I assume is your cute doggy. Kind of a tossup about male of female from that information.
What AMO mode is this?
Here is video of this tornado from Canadian Meteorologist Ryan Snoddon, who was chasing with us that day:


View on YouTube
Quoting 360. tornadodude:




Yeah it's a tough one lol


Yeah, it's so tiny. :-)

Where were you in relation to the hook? Looks like a fair distance from your picture, but that's about as close as I'd want to get. Not that I'm a coward or anything...I just bleed easily. :-0
Quoting 367. sar2401:

Yeah, it's so tiny. :-)

Where were you in relation to the hook? Looks like a fair distance from your picture, but that's about as close as I'd want to get. Not that I'm a coward or anything...I just bleed easily. :-0


We were about 2 miles to the southeast of the tornado. Road options between Oklahoma City and Tulsa are very limited. The area is surprising hilly and forested. Anywhere west of I-35 is wide open, but east gets tricky.
We had a van full of people to keep safe as well. About as close as I'd want to be to one of the strength with that kind of forward speed.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

The Great Lakes SSTs are really warm this year, it may lead to a lot of lake effect down the road. As well as the intensification of extratropical storms.



371. MahFL
Quoting 333. FunnelVortex:



A direct hit from a hurricane on the Big Island would be HISTORY in the making..


It's not forecast to hit Hawaii, going way south of the Big Island.
Quoting 346. Jedkins01:



This is actually really good, the northern gulf coast could really use the rain, especially the western FL panhandle. We've only had 2 inches of rain here since I started school up again, that is only 2 inches in about 5 weeks, and I haven't recorded any rain in my gauge in nearly 3 weeks.


Am looking forward to a wet pattern.


Same here, tomorrow will be exactly 3 weeks since I've recorded any rain at my house.