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Heaviest 1-day rain in Oklahoma City history; 92L fizzles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:45 PM GMT on June 15, 2010

Oklahoma City's rainiest day in history brought rampaging floods to the city and surrounding areas yesterday, as widespread rain amounts of 8 - 11 inches deluged the city. Fortunately, no confirmed deaths or injuries have been blamed on the mayhem, though damage is extensive. Oklahoma City's Will Rogers Airport received 7.62" of rain yesterday, smashing the record for the rainiest day in city history. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the city's previous rainiest day occurred September 22, 1970, when 7.53 inches fell. Some rivers continue to rise due to all the rain, and the Canadian River east of downtown Oklahoma City is four feet over flood stage, with major flooding expected today. You can track the flooding using our wundermap with the USGS Flood layer turned on.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for the period June 14 - 15, 2010, during the Oklahoma City floods. A large swath of 8 - 10 inches of rain (dark red colors) was indicated, from Oklahoma City northeastwards.

An inordinate number of major U.S. floods this year
We've had an inordinate number of severe floods in the U.S. so far this year. The worst was the May Tennessee flood, which killed 31 people--the highest death toll from a non-tropical cyclone flooding event in the U.S. since 1994, and the most devastating disaster in Tennessee since the Civil War. The Tennessee floods were rated as a 1000-year flood for Middle Tennessee, West Tennessee, South Central and Western Kentucky and northern Mississippi. Two-day rain totals in some areas were greater than 19 inches.Last Friday's disastrous flash flood in Albert Pike Recreation Area, Arkansas, killed twenty people. That flood was triggered by 8+ inches of rain that fell in just a few hours over the rugged mountains west of Hot Springs. And in March, record rains from a slow-moving and extremely wet Nor'easter triggered historic flooding in Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts, with several rivers exceeding their 100-year flood levels. The 16.32" of rain that fell on Providence, Rhode Island, made March that city's wettest month in recorded history.

All of these flooding events were associated with airmasses though brought record-breaking warm temperatures to surrounding regions of the country. For example, during the overnight hours when the June 11 flood in Arkansas occurred, fifty airports in the Southern and Midwestern U.S. had their highest minimum temperatures on record. During the 1000-year flood in Tennessee, 51 warm minimum temperatures records were set in the eastern half of the U.S. on May 1, and 97 records on May 2. Rhode Island's record wettest March also happened to be its record warmest March. And the air mass that spawned yesterday's Oklahoma City floods set record warm minimum temperatures at 22 airports across the central and Eastern portions of the U.S. on Monday. All this is not surprising, since more moisture can evaporate into warmer air, making record-setting rainfall events more likely when record warm temperatures are present. The total number of airports in the U.S. considered for these comparisons is around 500, so we're talking about significant portions of the U.S. being exposed to these record-breaking warm airmasses this year. For the spring months of March - May, it was the 21st warmest such period in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. At the 500 or so largest airports in the U.S., daily high temperature records outnumbered low temperature records by about a factor 2.5, 1200 to 508. Record high minimums this spring outnumbered record low maximums by 1163 to 568. So far in June, record daily highs have outpaced record lows by 176 to 13, and record high minimums have outpaced record low maximums, 419 to 62.

Flooding and global warming
Groisman et al. (2004) found that in the U.S. during the 20th century, there was a 16% increase in cold season (October - April) "heavy" precipitation events (greater than 2 inches in one day), a 25% increase in "very heavy" precipitation events (greater than 4 inches in one day), and a 36% rise in "extreme" precipitation events (those in the 99.9% percentile--1 in 1000 events.) A sharp rise in extreme precipitation is what is predicted by global warming models in the scientific literature Hegerl et al. (2004). According the landmark 2009 U.S. Climate Impact Report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program, "the amount of rain falling in the heaviest downpours has increased approximately 20 percent on average in the past century, and this trend is very likely to continue, with the largest increases in the wettest places." Most of this increase came since 1970, due to the approximate 1°F increase in U.S. average temperature since 1970. That 1°F increase in temperature means that there is 4% more moisture in the atmosphere, on average. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).

Dr. Joe Romm over at climateprogress.org has an excellent interview with Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center of Atmospheric Research on the subject of heavy precipitation events and global warming. Dr. Trenberth is the world's leading expert on water vapor in the atmosphere, and he comments that "since the 1970s, on average, there's about a 4% increase in water vapor over the Atlantic Ocean, and when that gets caught into a storm, it invigorates the storm so the storm itself changes, and that can easily double the influence of that water vapor and so you can get up to an 8% increase, straight from the amount of water vapor that's sort of hanging around in the atmosphere. This is reasonably well established." Dr. Trenberth further comments, "Now the physical cause for this is very much related to the water vapor that flows into these storms. And these kinds of storms, well all storms for that matter, reach out on average--this is very much a gross average--about 4 times the radius or 16 times the area of the region that's precipitating, the rain. And for these kinds of storms a lot of the moisture is coming out of the sub-tropical Atlantic and even the tropical Atlantic; some of it comes out of the Gulf of Mexico. And so the moisture actually travels about 2000 miles where it gets caught up in these storms and then it rains down. And the key thing is, that in the tropical and sub-tropical Atlantic the sea temperatures are at very high levels and in fact they're the highest on record at the moment right in the eastern tropical Atlantic. It's going to be interesting to see what that does for this hurricane season coming up."

We cannot say that any of this year's flooding disasters were definitely due to global warming, and part of the reason for this year's numerous U.S. flooding disasters is simply bad luck. However, higher temperatures do cause an increased chance of heavy precipitation events, and it is likely that the flooding in some of this year's U.S. flooding disasters were significantly enhanced by the presence of more water vapor in the air due to global warming. We can expect a large increase in flooding disasters in the U.S. and worldwide if the climate continues to warm as expected.


Figure 2. A portable classroom building from a nearby high school floats past submerged cars on I-24 near Nashville, TN on May 1, 2010. One person died in the flooding in this region of I-24. Roughly 200 - 250 vehicles got submerged on this section of I-24, according to wunderphotographer laughingjester, who was a tow truck operator called in to clear out the stranded vehicles.

Funding issues threaten hundreds of streamgages
According to the USGS web site, river stage data from 292 streamgages has been discontinued recently, or is scheduled for elimination in the near future due to budget cuts. In Tennessee, 16 streamflow gages with records going back up to 85 years will stop collecting data on July 1 because of budget cuts. Five gages in Arkansas are slated for elimination this year. Hardest hit will be Pennsylvania, which will lose 30 of its 258 streamgages. With over 50 people dead from two flooding disasters already this year, now hardly seems to be the time to be skimping on monitoring river flow levels by cutting funding for hundreds of streamgages. These gages are critical for proper issuance of flood warnings to people in harm's way. Furthermore, most of the northern 2/3 of the U.S. can expect a much higher incidence of record flooding in coming decades. This will be driven by two factors: increased urban development causing faster run-off, and an increase in very heavy precipitation events due to global warming.


Figure 3. Streamgages that have been discontinued or are being considered for discontinuation or for conversion from continuous record discharge to stage-only stations. Funds for these 292 threatened streamgages are from the U.S. Geological Survey and other Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies. For those streamgages that have already been discontinued, extensive efforts were made to find another funding source; however, when no funding was made available the streamgages had to be discontinued. If you have questions about specific streamgages, click on the state of concern on the USGS web page of threatened stream gages.

Dry air disrupting 92L
Invest 92L, which yesterday was a remarkably well-developed African tropical wave for so early in the season, has fizzled, due to dry air. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, and water vapor satellite loops show that the storm has wrapped a large amount of dry air to the west into the storm's center of circulation. With the storm continuing to track west-northwest to northwest into dryer air, the prospects for 92L developing into a tropical depression appear dim. With wind shear expected to rise from its current levels of 10 - 15 knots to 20 - 25 knots on Wednesday, the combination of shear and dry air should be able to pretty much destroy 92L on Wednesday. Shear values will likely increase to 30 - 40 knots by Friday, when 92L will move into the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. There is a window of opportunity this afternoon for 92L to fend off the dry air and organize into a tropical depression. One advantage the storm has it that it has developed a well-formed surface circulation. The low-level center of circulation is easy to spot on satellite imagery, since wind shear due to strong upper-level winds from the west have exposed the center to view. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a moderate (30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. I would put the chances a bit lower, at 20%. Even if 92L does develop into a tropical depression, it is highly unlikely to cause any trouble for the Lesser Antilles Islands, since wind shear and dry air will probably destroy the system before it can reach the islands.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. The low-level circulation is easy to spot on satellite imagery, since wind shear due to strong upper-level winds from the west have exposed the center to view. A small clump of heavy thunderstorms is located just east of the exposed center of circulation.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days. There is a small swirl of low clouds visible in satellite imagery at 8N, 22W, just off the coast of Africa, associated with a tropical wave. This circulation is under wind shear of about 20 knots, which is probably too high for such a small circulation to survive in.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light, predominantly southwesterly to westerly winds of 5 - 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico most of this week, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The more westerly wind direction is expected to maintain a slow (1/2 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil as far east as Panama City, Florida, by the end of the week. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wi
nd forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Why did 92L die so quickly?
2) Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
3) What damage could a hurricane do to oil drilling platforms and underwater pipes at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico?

Today's show, will be 1/2 hour, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

what about any northern movement
2002. xcool
LMAO
2003. xcool
15.0N 50.W IMO.
if this thing makes a sudden move north its over lol i saw 50 kt shear but to the west there 20-25 kt so that better considering if it moved a tad north but it isnt
2005. EricSFL
Hey good morning all! I see Alex is still not "officially" classified by the NHC. What more proof of a tropical cyclone are they expecting???
2006. xcool
btwntx08 .NEED KEEP WEST NOT NORTH.
I cant believe this isnt classified...
2008. jpsb
wow, that a difference a few hours make. 92L looks for real now.
some microwave images earlier show that it is in fact a ts by looking at it lol
2010. uplater
Quoting btwntx08:
like i said scottsvb is a pathetic downcaster and now hes putting everyone the list he doesnt trust that tells ya hes an a__


That dialog was unfortunate. Reed was only asserting his right to post, and doing so decorously. I've found his posts interesting and informative.
2011. xcool
i really dnot see dry air hmmm
Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 .NEED KEEP WEST NOT NORTH.

yep
2013. xcool
look at Water Vapor Loop wind shear not real bad all.
2014. EricSFL
92L reminds me of Erica 2009. But for some reason Erica was a classified TS and Alex isn't.
2015. xcool
yeah nhc sleep on job
even if it does move a tad bit north shear would not effect it so much it is only 20-35 give or take a few and decreasing -10 to -20kt
it ain't that bad
2017. EricSFL
I do not live far from the NHC office so I think I'll buy them some coffee...
yea the nhc is being stupid right now
2019. xcool
shear not bad all.
2020. xcool
EricSFL haha
Quoting EricSFL:
I do not live far from the NHC office so I think I'll buy them some coffee...

yea i think u should do that lol convince them
2022. xcool
lmao
ok i think i should go now good night all
the NHC is on drugs and are seeing things
2025. EricSFL
Good night!
2026. uplater
Quoting EricSFL:
92L reminds me of Erica 2009. But for some reason Erica was a classified TS and Alex isn't.


Erica was just an enormous thunderstorm, she never got to spinning the way 92-L has been all along. It would have been a *mess* if she had...
2027. xcool
bye rob.
2028. EricSFL
Quoting uplater:


Erica was just an enormous thunderstorm, she never got to spinning the way 92-L has been all along. It would have been a *mess* if she had...


lol true.
2029. EricSFL
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
the NHC is on drugs and are seeing things


...or NOT seeing things. lol
Seriously wondering about what the rest of season has in store now. The water is just too warm. Not good.
2032. uplater
Quoting StormGoddess:
Seriously wondering about what the rest of season has in store now. The water is just too warm. Not good.


The slick adding 1 to 2 degrees of additional heating in the GOM is extremely not happy. I guess that theory not proven, but you could see how the sheen could act like an insulator.
Quoting uplater:


The slick adding 1 to 2 degrees of additional heating in the GOM is extremely not happy. I guess that theory not proven, but you could see how the sheen could act like an insulator.

Yes, I can see how the unhappy scale would be pretty much off the charts in that area at this time.
Morning all.

Quoting EricSFL:
Hey good morning all! I see Alex is still not "officially" classified by the NHC. What more proof of a tropical cyclone are they expecting???
I guess they're looking for an area where pressures are falling, not rising.... is 92L still up to 1013hPa?

2035. uplater
Have a good morning all. I'm out.
looking on the latest sat I look like the center is now at 14.7N 49.8W
Quoting uplater:
Have a good morning all. I'm out.

Good Morning.
sorry I ment 14.7N 49.6W
no wait yes I am sure now it it at 14.7N 49.8W
Someone was asking for video of the seafloor leakage around the base of the BOP ... here it is:

Up from the Ground Came a Bubbling Crude

Not good.
Night all.
Morning,

I have a question:

Wich of two Systems 92E , 93E will declare TD first?
Quoting Claudette1234:
Morning,

I have a question:

Wich of two Systems 92E , 93E will declare TD first?


Hard to say. The latter might have some influence from the ITCZ to contend with.
Unless we get some real changes, this may be the best 92L looks today:

well BahaHurican I don't know is you would consider this to be a big change but atleast it is a change

16/0545 UTC 14.7N 48.9W T1.5/1.5 92L

15/2345 UTC 14.1N 47.4W T1.0/1.0 92L
15/1745 UTC 13.3N 45.5W T1.0/1.0 92L
15/1145 UTC 12.5N 43.6W TOO WEAK 92L

and shear is decreasing and 92L has changed it movments form NW to WNW and according to sat it moving W


The 2 systems seems more organized this morning
DMAX image doesn't make a TS. Starting to look raggedy again. 16Z CMC has the shear shifting north around 42hrs and if something were to steer the wave more west to pass south of Hispanola this might start looking better organized 72ish hours from now. Don't see any ASCAT or surface wind data that looks impressive now. IMO - NHC does about as good a job with our tax$ as any of the agencies I can think of.
Quoting naviguesser:
DMAX image doesn't make a TS. Starting to look raggedy again. 16Z CMC has the shear shifting north around 42hrs and if something were to steer the wave more west to pass south of Hispanola this might start looking better organized 72ish hours from now. Don't see any ASCAT or surface wind data that looks impressive now. IMO - NHC does about as good a job with our tax$ as any of the agencies I can think of.




I agree with you image doesnt makes TS, but you have to admit is much better organize than yesterday. My opinion next report from NHC returns system to ORANGE CODE. 40% or 50%
2053. kingy
flow meter in the oil flow indicates 60,000 barrels per day are leaking, thats an exxon valdeez every 5-6 days
Good morning Senior Chief.. I hope you are feeling better today.
Wow 92L impresses me
Quoting kingy:
flow meter in the oil flow indicates 60,000 barrels per day are leaking, thats an exxon valdeez every 5-6 days


not to mention oil is leaking through cracks in the sea floor as well that were caused by the explosion.
Sorry 0-Zulu CMC

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010061600&field=850-200mb+Zonal+Shear&hour=Animatio n
It's sustaining its convection nicely! Good presentation to say the least.
Quoting frostynugs:


not to mention oil is leaking through cracks in the sea floor as well that were caused by the explosion.


I don't think the explosion was the cause.. I think it was a bad cement job allowing oil up the annulus of the well.. the gasses did not expand until they were much higher in the riser and flashed from liquid to gas as pressure fell.
I think we may have our first depression soon. Doc says it fizzels?
Claudette1234 I second that but I think if you guys look about a page or two and some one posted data on a buoy near 92L and gave us some data near the system at the time

2063. JRRP
2064. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING W-NW ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS WILL SHIFT W OF THE AREA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 18N58W TO TRINIDAD WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY...AND THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT AND THU...THEN TO THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN FRI
THROUGH SUN. A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 14.3N48.7W WILL MOVE W-NW
GRADUALLY WEAKENING...REACHING FROM NEAR 22N57W TO 12N58W AS A
TROUGH TONIGHT...MOVING NW OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI NIGHT.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH 55W BY LATE SUN.


...................

ATLANTIC BETWEEN 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0600 UTC WED JUN 16.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC THU JUN 17.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0600 UTC FRI JUN 18.



SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC LOW PRES NEAR 14.3N48.7W 1014 MB MOVING W-NW 18 KT. WITHIN
90 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. ELSEWHERE
FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW PRES DISSIPATED.
If 92L can survive the shear another day I think it still has potential. I haven't seen an updated shear forcast but visually it looks to be calming down a bit.


Quoting JRRP:
IKE I think the the NHC is under forecasting or downcasting big time now
2067. MahFL
Last sat pic shows 92L being sheared and weakening.
2068. MahFL
Good outflow to the north though.
2070. IKE
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
IKE I think the the NHC is under forecasting or downcasting big time now


LOL...now the NHC is downcasters!

Not saying this pertains to you, but....I woke up during the night and read the comments on here. Arguing back and forth over an invest.

People hammering the NHC...hammering each other.

I'm not gonna get into an argument over an invest/TD.
Quoting MahFL:
Last sat pic shows 92L being sheared and weakening.


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
2072. JLPR2
Morning!
Well, 92L just had bad timing, if the shear weren't there I bet we would be in big trouble, but Mr. Shear has started to impact 92L so expect some breaking apart, at least that's what's expected. 92L is a sneaky one, so just to be sure, lets keep watching to see what it does. ^^
Now, back to bed for me, I'm not getting up this early. XD
last known location

AL, 92, 2010061600, , BEST, 0, 141N, 475W, 30, 1010, DB,

16/0545 UTC 14.7N 48.9W T1.5/1.5 92L

2074. IKE
Heck, they haven't run the GFDL or HWRF since yesterday at 00Z.

92L is right on the edge of the heavier shear and should get ripped apart today.
2075. WxLogic
Good morning,

92L is definitely a fighter. It should be entering high shear in the 30 to 50kts range late tonight into tomorrow AM.
Good morning, I see after nearly 12 hours 92L is still holding its own.
2077. cg2916
What the heck happened to 92L? Dang that was one strong DMAX!

BTW, if it continues to get better, can I retract my RIP? LOL
2078. JRRP
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
last known location

AL, 92, 2010061600, , BEST, 0, 141N, 475W, 30, 1010, DB,

16/0545 UTC 14.7N 48.9W T1.5/1.5 92L


1.5
and the NHC is sleeping
ike you have 10000 posts on a invest way out in the middle of nowhere, and people on this blog the majorityof the day posting on it, and arguing on it.My question is? are they all school kids out for the summer or is this showing how bad our unemployment rate is in this country, for it seems very few have a job or home tasks to do lol. And if this season ends up comparing to 2005 with a katrina type storm approaching the coast we would have 1 million posts if we get 10,000 for a weak invest.ike have a blessed day.p.s i live on the ms. coast and am far more concerned about the oil spill now then a invest, seems alot of the gulf coast residents that blog on here have thier priorities screwed up imop.
Good Morning everyone....WOW! I had thought that little blob was gone for good! Apparently not!
well let us hope the when the hurricane hunters fly today then the NHC will fix up their map and outlooks

000
NOUS42 KNHC 141600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT MON 14 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-014

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 14N 53W AT 16/1800Z.
Looks like someone came to play.

LSU earthscan shows low level circulation and clouds very strong.

I think he can take it.
Kinda makes you want to laugh Ike. The forcasters that are working the day shift today got a real good nights sleep. There just is little to worry about right now. I think they have sleepless nights in the not too distant future though. The NHC aren't downcasters, they pretty much call it like it is.


Quoting IKE:


LOL...now the NHC is downcasters!

Not saying this pertains to you, but....I woke up during the night and read the comments on here. Arguing back and forth over an invest.

People hammering the NHC...hammering each other.

I'm not gonna get into an argument over an invest/TD.
2084. msphar
Should be an interesting day today. Perhaps some scrambling at NHC. I wonder where this will cross through to the Caribbean ?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
IKE I think the the NHC is under forecasting or downcasting big time now


I agree 92L is at least a TD now. And yes last SAT visible image we see shear at NW.
Man, no love from the NHC. I really though it was going to make it.
Good Morning. To an untrained eye, 92L looks like a monster in the making right now. To the trained eye (CIMMS charts), it is headed towards destructive sheer and NHC has given it a 10% chance. With sheer starting to drop between Africa and the Antilles, and depending on the timing of lifting of the TUTT and the destructive band of sheer just to the North of 92L, I would not be surprised to see a few similar "blobs" emerge from a wave in July that might have a better chance.....But this one has been fun to watch.
Convection is weakening. Well I'm returning to bed this 92L gives me headache
2089. IKE
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well let us hope the when the hurricane hunters fly today then the NHC will fix up their map and outlooks

000
NOUS42 KNHC 141600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT MON 14 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-014

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 14N 53W AT 16/1800Z.



054
NOUS42 KNHC 151330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 15 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-015

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

By the way from looking on sat from 2:00 am our time till now 92L has been moving west away fro the shear so I don't think shear will bea a problem for atleast the next 6 hours
2091. IKE
Quoting LongGlassTube:
Kinda makes you want to laugh Ike. The forcasters that are working the day shift today got a real good nights sleep. There just is little to worry about right now. I think they have sleepless nights in the not too distant future though. The NHC aren't downcasters, they pretty much call it like it is.




This season is 16 days old and it already seems like it's 3 months old.
OH BTW, Good Morning STORMW!!!
2093. JLPR2
We'll have a good idea of what's really happening once 92L passes over here:

Station 41NT0
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Location: 14.817N 52W

that buoy should tell us whats really happening,
92L is still at 50w, so far, nothing on the buoy.

Now I'm off to bed, for real! XD
2094. cg2916
AL, 92, 2010061600, , BEST, 0, 141N, 475W, 30, 1010, DB

Best it's ever been... I expect at least a 30% or 40%. at the TWO.
2095. JLPR2
Quoting IKE:



054
NOUS42 KNHC 151330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 15 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-015

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP



Bamm! Reality...
Shear is just too strong ahead of it :)
2096. cg2916
The NHC might not classify this because it may run into shear in 12 or so hours. The NHC tends to do that.
I went to bed thinking 92L was slowly dissipating and would be a fond memory this AM. But I wake to find...IT LIVES!!! It poofed up during the night. Folks, this just is crazy. It is JUNE! Thank you all for your comments, thoughts and information; especially StormW. I follow this blog religiously during the season. Looks like it is gonna be a long one! Any thoughts on the poof in the GOMEX?? Oil spill does not need any storms to further destroy our coastline!
2098. IKE
Quoting cg2916:
The NHC might not classify this because it may run into shear in 12 or so hours. The NHC tends to do that.


If they were going to classify it now, someone would have already posted an upgrade on here.

Probably the same outlook on the updated TWO. That's my guess. Conditions... "not conducive for development".
Quoting IKE:


If they were going to classify it now, someone would have already posted an upgrade on here.

Probably the same outlook on the updated TWO. That's my guess. Conditions... "not conducive for development".


Reminds me of our freind from Lousianna, Dr. John; "I was in the right place, but it must have been the wrong time"....
2100. OReilly
Good Morning WU-Bloggers. This is from CrownWeather, owner/operator Rob Lightbown.

In addition the latest European and GFS models both show the energy associated with 92-L crossing Puerto Rico and Hispaniola this weekend and then tracking across the Florida Keys and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico next Wednesday and next Thursday.

There's more, but this was the end statement- how familiar does this sound?

This is a little concerning since the pesky systems that don’t want to die are the ones you never write off.
2101. cg2916
Quoting IKE:


If they were going to classify it now, someone would have already posted an upgrade on here.

Probably the same outlook on the updated TWO. That's my guess. Conditions... "not conducive for development".


Yeah, you're probably right, I'll go with 20 because "SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY. HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT".
Plan of the Day

For Today (text issued yesterday)

000
NOUS42 KNHC 141600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT MON 14 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-014

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 14N 53W AT 16/1800Z.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


For Tomorrow (text issued today)

000
NOUS42 KNHC 151330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 15 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-015

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


2103. cg2916
Back to the EPAC for just a sec, we have two storms really close to each other both at 50%.

I wanna see the Fujiwhara! :-)
2104. IKE
Quoting OReilly:
Good Morning WU-Bloggers. This is from CrownWeather, owner/operator Rob Lightbown.

In addition the latest European and GFS models both show the energy associated with 92-L crossing Puerto Rico and Hispaniola this weekend and then tracking across the Florida Keys and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico next Wednesday and next Thursday.

There's more, but this was the end statement- how familiar does this sound?

This is a little concerning since the pesky systems that don’t want to die are the ones you never write off.


It's not going to fully die. We can all watch it.

The 6Z GFS puts it in the GOM in the 7-10 day period and heads it toward the coast. Similar to the Crownweather post above.
2105. amd
the last hurrah of 92L was more impressive than I thought.

However, reality awaits:

40 knots of shear ahead for 92L
The reason it seems so old is that the NHC lets us play with some us their toys in this computer age. Twenty years ago I would have been watching Nash Roberts on WWL. He would have showed us a little wave with some rotation on the SAT Map. He would have pointed out the hostile area it was located in and then he would have said very little to worry about in the Atlantic right now. Enjoy your week.


Quoting IKE:


This season is 16 days old and it already seems like it's 3 months old.
2107. IKE
2102...today is June 16th.
2108. cg2916
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Plan of the Day

For Today (text issued yesterday)

000
NOUS42 KNHC 141600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT MON 14 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-014

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 14N 53W AT 16/1800Z.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


For Tomorrow (text issued today)

000
NOUS42 KNHC 151330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 15 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-015

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP




Use the one for tomorrow, it's more accurate. There's no more recon flight for it.
Quoting uplater:


The slick adding 1 to 2 degrees of additional heating in the GOM is extremely not happy. I guess that theory not proven, but you could see how the sheen could act like an insulator.


Maybe not proven, but logic would tell me that the oil would have some effect on SST. My logic has failed me before, though. The effect might be negligible with temps as high as they are.After thinking, a negligible effect over such a large area, makes the effect a little more significant. Sorry about the flip-flop. I write what and as I think.
2110. SLU
000
NOUS42 KNHC 151330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 15 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-015

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Issued yesterday. There are no plans to fly into 92L today
2111. cg2916
Quoting amd:
the last hurrah of 92L was more impressive than I thought.

However, reality awaits:

40 knots of shear ahead for 92L


Well, actually, it's shifted its motion to the WNW, and if the GFS is right, we might have shear lift as 92L is moving to the W.
2112. scott39
The NHC is giving 92L only 10%, because its forecasted to encounter 20knts of shear for 48 hours. You better hope 92L cant last thru that folks, because that means this is one tough son-of-a-bleep and wants to do some damage.
Actually, based on models, the shear retreats to the west and north constantly for the next several days. So I think the storm will remain about like it is, maybe intensify over all, during the next few days.
If 92L hits that 40-50 knot shear area then I it will go POOOOF!


Quoting amd:
the last hurrah of 92L was more impressive than I thought.

However, reality awaits:

40 knots of shear ahead for 92L
Speaking of recon missions, I'm figuring that with this active of a season as forcasted, that the NHC might keep a plane/crew down in the Antilles more frequently this Summer so they have better access to the waves coming in once we get into August and September.
2116. OReilly
Thanks, Ike. I never write off a system till it's northeast of New York.
2117. scott39
Quoting LongGlassTube:
If 92L hits that 40-50 knot shear area then I it will go POOOOF!


Can you show me a map of that?
2118. cg2916
I'm starting to get the feeling that 92L is actually purposefully trying to annoy us. First, it was super organized and huge, but then it had a really bad DMIN, but then it was consolidating, but it lacked convection, and then it started making a comeback last night and it made a really good DMAX.

MAKE UP YOUR MIND, 92L!
2119. cg2916
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Speaking of recon missions, I'm figuring that with this active of a season as forcasted, that the NHC might keep a plane/crew down in the Antilles more frequently this Summer so they have better access to the waves coming in once we get into August and September.


Sounds right.

Quoting scott39:
Can you show me a map of that?


2120. pottery
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Speaking of recon missions, I'm figuring that with this active of a season as forcasted, that the HNC might keep a plane/crew down in the Antilles more frequently this Summer so they have better access to the waves coming in once we get into August and September.

Good Morning all.
They often base an aircraft in Barbados, during busy periods in the Tropical Atlantic.
2121. amd
Quoting cg2916:


Well, actually, it's shifted its motion to the WNW, and if the GFS is right, we might have shear lift as 92L is moving to the W.


Shear will definitely lift, and there is a very strong upper level high to the north of the TUTT which will pull it off. However, in the meantime, the TUTT has actually strengthened a bit. Notice there are now bands of 50 knots of shear in the Caribbean that were not there in recent days.

I expect the TUTT to dramatically weaken in a few days, but for now, unless something unforeseen happens, 92L will be sheared in short order.

Now if 92L can get North of the Caribbean Islands, shear will become favorable.

All of this is JMHO.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Speaking of recon missions, I'm figuring that with this active of a season as forcasted, that the NHC might keep a plane/crew down in the Antilles more frequently this Summer so they have better access to the waves coming in once we get into August and September.


NOAA/NASA will have extensive recon from mid August through September, mainly for research purposes but they will also aid operations.
Quoting LongGlassTube:
If 92L hits that 40-50 knot shear area then I it will go POOOOF!




92L is very impressive yet this morning for what it has been through. Funny thing is tho the Wind Sheer has been relaxing some as it advances. Probably because i believe of an Anti-cyclone that is following it. The mix with the TUTT has actually let it breath as sometimes this can happen. NEEDS TO STILL BE WATCHED!
Quoting pottery:

Good Morning all.
They often base an aircraft in Barbados, during busy periods in the Tropical Atlantic.


Thanks for that post as I was trying to remember which island they frequently used; I had a friend with the Coast Guard (out of Opa Locka Air Station in Miami) who flew a few missions down there to bring some supplies to an NHC crew on standby (in the 1990's) and I had forgotten which island.....I do remember him telling they loved to go down there for the drinks and women when they were "off the clock"....... :)
2125. IKE
Look at the newest visible on 92L. You can see the shear hammering it from the western side. Becoming increasingly exposed. Convection waning.
2126. JRRP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. HOWEVER...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.
2127. IKE
Cue up hammering NHC...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. HOWEVER...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

I do believe this is officieally the biggest "tropical nothing" I've ever seen.
I can guess what the NHC's thinking. There are two reasons why they believe it wont develop.

1) 92L obviously needs DMAX to sustain itself, although the waxing and waining of a system is normal, 92L needs DMAX to much and is already fading as the sun rises. 92L might be a few rain showers by sunset.

2) 92L is about to hit a 50 knot shear barrier. You can see on satellite 92L's clouds to the north are streaming away from the system. There is very little chance for 92L to develop until it hits the Caribbean.

We most likely wont see tropical develop for at least a week.
2130. scott39
Quoting cg2916:


Sounds right.



Thanks, Even if 92L is sheared, Its the left over energy we have to look out for. We are going to have to keep our eye out 6-7 days from now, when it lands in the SE GOM. IMO
Although 92L's MCC looks very large and nice on satellite imagery there aren't any very cold cloud tops like yesterday evening.

Coldest cloud top noted is about -70˚C.

2133. P451
I don't see any way that 92L makes it. I also don't see any way that the jet somehow dissipates.

92L will reach that jet and get ripped apart.

What we can gather from 92L is that this tropical season is indeed going to be a rough one. As soon as the climatology catches up, of which includes the slack of wind shear and the st jet, then you will see waves such as 92L explode.

2134. IKE
Quoting RecordSeason:
I do believe this is officieally the biggest "tropical nothing" I've ever seen.


Agree. 13,300+ posts since June 11th on Dr. Masters blogs...over an invest.
this is a video on youtube with a lot of hurricane footage. i like it!

Quoting RecordSeason:
I do believe this is officieally the biggest "tropical nothing" I've ever seen.


TRUST me, no it isn't. You must not have been around long enough. Loads of systems in the past years have gotten to red then died off.

Again, I know I sound like a broken record when I say this but I will keep saying it to make the point. 92L was a massive sign of the season to come. Cape Verde waves will continue to roll off the African Coast with increasing organization. The TUTT as stated earlier will most likely weaken before to long. Alex very well might happen the first week of July, maybe even Bonnie. Watch for development when the next upward MJO cycle comes in.
Quoting RecordSeason:
I do believe this is officieally the biggest "tropical nothing" I've ever seen.


Andrew was a near Tropical Nothing in about the same position and fighting Sheer in about the same spot if i recall......anything out there should never be considered Nothing! JMO
2139. SLU



I've seen worse tropical depressions before and after such an increase in organisation and winds of 31.5kts reported from buoy 41041 yesterday when there was virtually no convection, this should at least be given more than a 10 PERCENT chance to develop. Furthermore Dvorak numbers increased to T1.5/1.5 overnight which is enough to be classified as a TD. No issues with the circulation either so the NHC is really being conservative. I know of other places in the Atlantic where a system like this would have been named by now ........
92L is suffering greatly as upper level winds aloft are 20 knots throughout the system with the northernmost part of the system showing 40 knot wind shear aloft. When looking at satellite imagery, visible to be specific, you can notice the eastern quadrant of 92L having that signature sheared effect as if it's "soul" is being sucked out.

11:15 UTC
MJO is coming into the Atlantic Basin it appears about July 8th time frame give or take a couple of days.....ITS COMING! BOOM BOOM! JUST SAYIN
2142. cg2916
Quoting SLU:



I've seen worse tropical depressions before and after such an increase in organisation and winds of 31.5kts reported from buoy 41041 yesterday when there was virtually no convection, this should at least be given more than a 10 PERCENT chance to develop. Furthermore Dvorak numbers increased to T1.5/1.5 overnight which is enough to be classified as a TD. No issues with the circulation either so the NHC is really being conservative. I know of other places in the Atlantic where a system like this would have been named by now ........


They don't want to name something that will die in 6-12 hours due to shear.
2143. P451
92L
Color Enhanced Infared
36 Hour Loop at 1 Hour frame increments.

2144. JRRP
Quoting RecordSeason:
I do believe this is officieally the biggest "tropical nothing" I've ever seen.

lol
Quoting SLU:



I've seen worse tropical depressions before and after such an increase in organisation and winds of 31.5kts reported from buoy 41041 yesterday when there was virtually no convection, this should at least be given more than a 10 PERCENT chance to develop. Furthermore Dvorak numbers increased to T1.5/1.5 overnight which is enough to be classified as a TD. No issues with the circulation either so the NHC is really being conservative. I know of other places in the Atlantic where a system like this would have been named by now ........
The reason that they are reluctant to classify 92L is that it is under 20 knots of wind shear and about to enter into 40 knots of wind shear, nothing is going to develop there regardless. Be back in 1 hour.
I am referring to how strong it is, yet it doesn't have a name yet, and is just an invest.

I've seen weaker storms with a name before...
2147. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
92L is suffering greatly as upper level winds aloft are 20 knots throughout the system with the northernmost part of the system showing 40 knot wind shear aloft. When looking at satellite imagery, visible to be specific, you can notice the eastern quadrant of 92L having that signature sheared effect as if it's "soul" is being sucked out.

11:15 UTC


Do you think this could possibly avoid the shear. It's changed its movement to WNW.
What may be a sure thing is some squally weather for the NE Caribbean this weekend.
2149. JRRP
well see you later
2150. cg2916
Quoting P451:
92L
Color Enhanced Infared
36 Hour Loop at 1 Hour frame increments.



Dang, that thing blew up out of nothing!
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT
DRIFTS GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WEST TO ACAPULCO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

2. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM FROM THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN
NNNN

93E RED 60%
Quoting OReilly:
Thanks, Ike. I never write off a system till it's northeast of New York.


Thanks, "RADAR", I agree. Can't tell you how many times these things have had their epitath written, and they come back with a nasty bite.
2153. 900MB
Looks like everyone is Poof-casting again!

Sure, aside from real warm SSTs this has everything working against it, but, most importantly, this system is a warning! The Central Atlantic is pretty darned dangerous and it is only June! Watch out!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


TRUST me, no it isn't. You must not have been around long enough. Loads of systems in the past years have gotten to red then died off.

Again, I know I sound like a broken record when I say this but I will keep saying it to make the point. 92L was a massive sign of the season to come. Cape Verde waves will continue to roll off the African Coast with increasing organization. The TUTT as stated earlier will most likely weaken before to long. Alex very well might happen the first week of July, maybe even Bonnie. Watch for development when the next upward MJO cycle comes in.


Cybrteddy
SLU has been around for many years. He knows what he is talking about.
2155. Dakster
Quoting EricSFL:
I do not live far from the NHC office so I think I'll buy them some coffee...


I'd go over and bang on the window to wake them up, but since the building doesn't have any...



NO 40kt Wind sheer on the graphic......HUMMMM
Quoting JupiterFL:


Cybrteddy
SLU has been around for many years. He knows what he is talking about.


Was refering to RecordStorm in my quote.
2158. 900MB
I know. I am dumbfounded! Looked like a naked swirl yesterday morning. Was it the really warm SSTs? 29C. Sure. the shear is gonna get it, but Wow!
2159. scott39
Quoting TampaSpin:


Andrew was a near Tropical Nothing in about the same position and fighting Sheer in about the same spot if i recall......anything out there should never be considered Nothing! JMO
Tampa have you seen where the latest Canadian, European and GFS shows the energy assiciated with 92L crosses over PR, the keys and into the SE GOM around Wednesday of next week? We could have a problem when it gets around this shear.
Anyone else here have "hurricane OCD"?


I'll watch these suckers all day long, with 5 or 6 tabs, sometimes more, open in my browser, and update every one constantly.
2161. IKE
6Z NAM has the remnants of/92L heading toward the Bahamas...in 84 hours...

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Was refering to RecordStorm in my quote.


Your right. My bad. Reading too fast.
2151. Claudette1234 7:59 AM EDT on June 16, 2010

If something does develop in the e-pac over the next few days (a storm or TD), expect things to remain calm on the Atlantic side (it is only June) until the e-pac activity goes away so to speak. Still trying to get a handle on the MJO factors but things (in June-July) usually pick up in the e-pac/die down in the Atlantic then the reverse usually happens. Given the current activity there, we might not see the window for the first viable storm in the Atlantic until the first few weeks of July.






I was about to say 92L should be a TD right now until i did some snooping......The Vorticity is ths best 92L has ever had and it is very well stacked. The Divergence is best it has every had. But, it has no Convergence at the lower levels at all......Bingo no TD!
2159:

With these water temps, the problem is Andrew's mom...and she's 7-10 days out.
SSD Dvorak stays at 1.5.

16/1145 UTC 14.6N 50.5W T1.5/1.5 92L -- Atlantic
2167. P451
Quoting TampaSpin:






I was about to say 92L should be a TD right now until i did some snooping......The Vorticity is ths best 92L has ever had and it is very well stacked. The Divergence is best it has every had. But, it has no Convergence at the lower levels at all......Bingo no TD!


Yep.

Just because it looks good from above doesn't mean it is qualified to be designated.

This is why some systems that look terrible from above are actually designated because they have the qualifications to do so.

No matter how good it looks it apparently lacks the components to be classified.

Quoting scott39:
Tampa have you seen where the latest Canadian, European and GFS shows the energy assiciated with 92L crosses over PR, the keys and into the SE GOM around Wednesday of next week? We could have a problem when it gets around this shear.


YEP was just looking at all of that....this thingy has a good chance of becoming a GOM thingy possibly....needs to be watched for sure....Sheer is gonna lift out it appears as it advances.....i don't think and i have stood by this that 92L is not gonna go away slightly.....

This 92L coming into SW Flordia....
for the next 24 hours all eyes needs to keep an eye on the shear maps fore Eg



and



Link
Link
2170. SLU
Quoting cg2916:


They don't want to name something that will die in 6-12 hours due to shear.


Since when did tropical cyclone designation become subjective? If a system has the characteristics of a TD or a TS or a hurricane, then it must be classified accordingly even if the wind shear will kill it in 5 minutes. Like we saw last year there were a few systems which met TS conditions but the governing body remained a little too conservative.
BP better hope this does not occur.....




2172. scott39
Quoting TampaSpin:


YEP was just looking at all of that....this thingy has a good chance of becoming a GOM thingy possibly....needs to be watched for sure....Sheer is gonna lift out it appears as it advances.....i don't think and i have stood by this that 92L is not gonna go away slightly.....

This 92L coming into SW Flordia....
That looks eerily familiar!
I think that 92L has a few more suprises still in store for us lit us just sit back and watch

16/1145 UTC 14.6N 50.5W T1.5/1.5 92L
16/0545 UTC 14.7N 48.9W T1.5/1.5 92L

hmmm... still T1.5/1.5 and wait it moved WSW it tring to get out of shear what a smart system
2174. 10Speed
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The reason that they are reluctant to classify 92L is that it is under 20 knots of wind shear and about to enter into 40 knots of wind shear, nothing is going to develop there regardless.


Then, I guess we all can say they make naming decisions based on what they think a disturbance will do rather than what it's actually doing at the present.
It the last couple of loop frames (visible)it looks like 92L ran into a brick wall...
2176. SLU
Quoting JupiterFL:


Cybrteddy
SLU has been around for many years. He knows what he is talking about.


Trust me. After 11 hurricane seasons you know when a TD is a TD. Winds of 31.5kts, a closed circulation and a subsequent burst of deep convection (-80C) deserves more that 10% recognition. 92L definitely has been a TD at some stage or another in the last 4 days.

I hope they include 92L in the post season report. lol
hi everyone still pretty calm on the atlantic side the pacific is starting to get active though.this may be signs of still a weak el nino lurking..we will have to wait until july to see if this strong shear dies over the atlantic and caribbean..debby
Quoting SLU:


Since when did tropical cyclone designation become subjective? If a system has the characteristics of a TD or a TS or a hurricane, then it must be classified accordingly even if the wind shear will kill it in 5 minutes. Like we saw last year there were a few systems which met TS conditions but the governing body remained a little too conservative.

TO you and a bunch of amateurs on this blog they met Tropical Storm conditions but in reality they were lacking. The professionals as well as many other Mets around the world agree it did not met criteria. Just like this system. I read so many time on how there was so much convection firing when in reality it was a bunch of mid level clouds with no vertical extent and maybe 3-4 blowups.
2179. scott39
If 92ls energy stays intact, look for developement in about 6-7 days. IMO
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

TO you and a bunch of amateurs on this blog they met Tropical Storm conditions but in reality they were lacking. The professionals as well as many other Mets around the world agree it did not met criteria. Just like this system. I read so many time on how there was so much convection firing when in reality it was a bunch of mid level clouds with no vertical extent and maybe 3-4 blowups.


gosh thanks for dropping by and trying to make us feel ignorant.
2181. P451
Quoting nadirsup:
It the last couple of loop frames (visible)it looks like 92L ran into a brick wall...


Shear is starting to impact the system. With the satellite imagery when this happens it causes the system to appear to stop in it's tracks but in reality the system is still moving to the WNW while it's upper clouds are being pulled to the east. This gives the impression of a stalling system but you can bet the lower levels are still moving forward.

De-coupling will occur eventually. You're seeing the start of that process.
2182. P451
Today's severe weather outlook. Animated GIF.

Quoting SLU:


Since when did tropical cyclone designation become subjective? If a system has the characteristics of a TD or a TS or a hurricane, then it must be classified accordingly even if the wind shear will kill it in 5 minutes. Like we saw last year there were a few systems which met TS conditions but the governing body remained a little too conservative.


Designation is subjective in that "organized deep convection" and "about a well-defined center" are forecaster judgement. I do agree that future forecast/potential should have nothing to do with it, only evaluate on the present condition.

In my opinion I disagree with NHC, AL92 should be designated a TD. Previously it either lacked a well defined center (last weekend) or organized deep convection (yesterday), but I feel now it has both.
2184. JDSmith
Quoting P451:


Shear is starting to impact the system. With the satellite imagery when this happens it causes the system to appear to stop in it's tracks but in reality the system is still moving to the WNW while it's upper clouds are being pulled to the east. This gives the impression of a stalling system but you can bet the lower levels are still moving forward.

De-coupling will occur eventually. You're seeing the start of that process.


What does this information indicate about its movement?

From:
16/0545 UTC 14.7N 48.9W T1.5/1.5 92L
To:
16/1145 UTC 14.6N 50.5W T1.5/1.5 92L
Quoting twhcracker:


gosh thanks for dropping by and trying to make us feel ignorant.

Let me clarify...it wasnt ment to be an insult because a lot of the amateurs are well informed and have great knowledge...I just feel that a lot of times the conversations tend to sway people into thinking something that may or may not be true. Power in numbers so when 10 people jump on board then it must be true right?
2186. scott39
Squally weather is headed for PR/hispaniola and the N carribean Islands. We may have something to track this time next week. IMO
JDSmith movement WSW it tring to get away from the shear
Quoting TampaSpin:






I was about to say 92L should be a TD right now until i did some snooping......The Vorticity is ths best 92L has ever had and it is very well stacked. The Divergence is best it has every had. But, it has no Convergence at the lower levels at all......Bingo no TD!


Was thinking 92L was going to change that once it got some sustained T-Storms going. Out $20 bucks anyway, lol. I guess we'll see later today what it looks like at the surface, assuming the LLC comes into view.
2189. JDSmith
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
JDSmith movement WSW it tring to get away from the shear


I know that. It was a loaded question.
2190. Walshy
Quoting P451:


Yep.

Just because it looks good from above doesn't mean it is qualified to be designated.

This is why some systems that look terrible from above are actually designated because they have the qualifications to do so.

No matter how good it looks it apparently lacks the components to be classified.





I agree 110%. Reminds me of how tornado warnings are issued when more than half the time the rotating column of strong winds NEVER reach the ground.
2192. SLU
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Designation is subjective in that "organized deep convection" and "about a well-defined center" are forecaster judgement. I do agree that future forecast/potential should have nothing to do with it, only evaluate on the present condition.

In my opinion I disagree with NHC, AL92 should be designated a TD. Previously it either lacked a well defined center (last weekend) or organized deep convection (yesterday), but I feel now it has both.


Yeh like Levi remarked a day or so ago, let's say 92L was upgraded to a TD on Sunday when it looked really good, it hasn't really lost organisation that much so far for it to be declared an open wave. It would still be called a TD. Even more so since last night when the convection detonated.
2193. scott39
Follow the swirl for the next week and you will get your TD or more maybe. IMO
92L looks impressive on Visible.
I see the 00z ECMWF still forecasting a tropical cyclone to develop later in the run.
2196. Patrap
AMSU Intensity Time Series




Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) - Based Intensity Estimates

The Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit or AMSU, which is an instrument on the NOAA operational polar-orbiting satellites, has the capability to make temperature soundings. Using a combination of AMSU-based soundings, the hydrostatic relationship, and statistics, a tropical cyclone intensity estimate can be made. The methodology used here is discussed in Demuth et al (2004) and updated in Demuth et al. (2006). Estimates are created by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the estimates as well as other products are available for the last two days at NCEP Central Operations. While overall statistics are comparable with the Dvorak technique, this method is most useful and accurate for tropical cyclones with intensities less than ~90 kt. Shown in this product are time series of the operational warning intensities versus the AMSU-based intensity estimates.
2197. IKE
I think shear is retracting and moving in tandem with 92L.
One thing we can all agree on is not to take our eyes off of 92L.I especially want.I live on the Gulf Coast and i am very concerned with a system impacting the oil spill and what it will do to the oil.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think shear is retracting and moving in tandem with 92L.


On no you didn't............. :)
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think shear is retracting and moving in tandem with 92L.


Im not so sure about that. 12z SHIPS shows high shear over 92L and keeps it there for the next 5 days. Link
2203. Drakoen
Quoting JDSmith:


What does this information indicate about its movement?

From:
16/0545 UTC 14.7N 48.9W T1.5/1.5 92L
To:
16/1145 UTC 14.6N 50.5W T1.5/1.5 92L


Reasonable increase in the T number. On the western edge of the deep convection.
2205. Patrap

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest92

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



2206. P451
Quoting JDSmith:


What does this information indicate about its movement?

From:
16/0545 UTC 14.7N 48.9W T1.5/1.5 92L
To:
16/1145 UTC 14.6N 50.5W T1.5/1.5 92L


A temporary jog to the west that will still have no real bearing on the future of the system as it cannot escape that shear that awaits it.



Meanwhile, Southern California remains very active. Months of aftershocks. 10s of thousands of them. I don't recall an ongoing event such as this one. Surprised it doesn't get more attention.



2207. IKE
Quoting mrsalagranny:
One thing we can all agree on is not to take our eyes off of 92L.I especially want.I live on the Gulf Coast and i am very concened with a system impacting the oil spill and what it will do to the oil.


It's heading west...forecast to move WNW. It eventually has to hit a land mass unless it completely dissipates and I don't see that happening, except on the NOGAPS latest run.
ECMWF still indicating development, so it's starting to show consistency. Last I checked, no other model supports it.
20100616.1215.goes13.x.vis1km_high.92LINVEST.30kts-1011mb-143N-508W


From the Navy Site
2210. SLU
Alright, if anyone still has doubts as to whether or not 92L is a TD, then let us wait for the surface observations from buoys 41041 @ 14.5, 53w and 41NT0 @ 14.8n 52w.

Look out for:

1. signs of a closed circulation.
2. pressure tendencies
3. wind speeds of 25 - 30kts or higher.

If the convection remains well organised at the time then you can't ask for any more proof to upgrade a system to a TD.
Quoting extreme236:


Im not so sure about that. 12z SHIPS shows high shear over 92L and keeps it there for the next 5 days. Link

It should have been torn apart by now, I think the shear values are overblown or as I said before moving in tandem with 92L thats the only thing I see keeping it goingjust my opinion of course.
2212. IKE
Quoting extreme236:


Im not so sure about that. 12z SHIPS shows high shear over 92L and keeps it there for the next 5 days. Link


What this run doesn't do is completely dissipate it like the SHIPS runs earlier.

I agree...shear is high. It can't stay high forever? Worth watching.
2213. Drakoen
Quoting extreme236:


Im not so sure about that. 12z SHIPS shows high shear over 92L and keeps it there for the next 5 days. Link


If you notice the bamm model is north of the XTRAP. If the system stay on it's current track shear will be lower.
2215. SLU
729

WHXX01 KWBC 161223

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1223 UTC WED JUN 16 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100616 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100616 1200 100617 0000 100617 1200 100618 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.3N 50.8W 14.9N 53.7W 15.6N 57.0W 16.4N 59.9W

BAMD 14.3N 50.8W 14.8N 52.3W 15.2N 53.7W 15.6N 55.3W

BAMM 14.3N 50.8W 15.0N 53.1W 15.4N 55.3W 15.9N 57.6W

LBAR 14.3N 50.8W 15.0N 53.3W 15.7N 55.8W 16.5N 58.5W

SHIP 30KTS 29KTS 27KTS 26KTS

DSHP 30KTS 29KTS 27KTS 26KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100618 1200 100619 1200 100620 1200 100621 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.0N 63.0W 18.0N 68.4W 18.1N 73.7W 18.7N 78.5W

BAMD 15.9N 57.0W 16.5N 60.1W 17.0N 63.3W 18.1N 66.5W

BAMM 16.3N 59.9W 16.8N 63.8W 16.9N 68.1W 17.8N 72.3W

LBAR 17.2N 61.2W 19.3N 66.0W 21.6N 69.6W 24.6N 71.2W

SHIP 26KTS 27KTS 32KTS 42KTS

DSHP 26KTS 27KTS 32KTS 42KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 50.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT

LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 47.5W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 16KT

LATM24 = 13.0N LONM24 = 44.4W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Quoting IKE:


It's heading west...forecast to move WNW. It eventually has to hit a land mass unless it completely dissipates and I don't see that happening, except on the NOGAPS latest run.
Oh my goodness.I will have a lot of late nights in the closet praying.
2217. MahFL
Despite the shear some thunderstorms are growing on the NW side.
BTW 92L has commenced a westward movement or just a tad south of due west.
2219. Patrap
Digital Dvorak



Digital Dvorak Intensity Estimates

Using the infrared (IR) images collected as part of the CIRA tropical cyclone IR image archive, which are displayed in an earth relative format as a product on this web page. Center positions are extrapolated using the current position and the past 12-h mean motion vector. Tropical cyclone intensity estimates can be made using two temperatures derived from the IR imagery. The first is the warmest pixel in the eye, and second is the warmest pixel on the coldest circle between 24 and 111 km from the cyclone center. Using these values a Raw T-number can be created by using the locally developed Table That expands upon the table published in Dvorak (1984). Each T-number has an intensity, in terms of maximum 1-minute sustained winds, associated with it and can be converted to an intensity.

While Raw T-numbers give an estimate of how strong a given storm is, the quantity is noisy, and because it is an instantaneous measure does not properly account for the relatively slow decay process of tropical cyclone winds. To remove the noisy nature of the Raw T-numbers time averaging is employed to produce a 6-h running mean of the raw T-numbers. This 6-h running mean is considered the T-number associated with the current intensity if the 6-h running mean is not decreasing at more than 1.5 T-numbers per day. If the 6-h running mean is decreasing very rapidly, a maximum of 1.5 T-number per day decay rate is prescribed. This final value of the 6-h running mean with a decay rule applied is considered the current intensity number or CI. The CI, as with any T-number estimate, can be converted into a intensity. However, it is important to note that THIS TECHNIQUE IS ONLY VALID FOR STORMS OF HURRICANE INTENSITY (65 kt) OR GREATER.
The image shown on this web page shows the time series of warning intensity and the Digital Dvorak estimate of intensity at the top and the time series of raw T-number estimates, the 6-h running mean, and the CI at the bottom.

Dvorak, V., 1984: Tropical cyclone intensity analysis using satellite data.NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 11, 47 pp. [Available from NOAA/NESDIS, 5200 Auth Rd. Washington DC, 20233].
2220. Drakoen
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
20100616.1215.goes13.x.vis1km_high.92LINVEST.30kts-1011mb-143N-508W


From the Navy Site


Moving WSW possibly...
2221. IKE
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Oh my goodness.I will have a lot of late nights in the closet praying.


LOL...hang in there and keep watching 92L!
2222. scott39
Quoting mrsalagranny:
One thing we can all agree on is not to take our eyes off of 92L.I especially want.I live on the Gulf Coast and i am very concened with a system impacting the oil spill and what it will do to the oil.
Goodmorning, Lets wait and see on 92L, it has a gauntlet of shear to go thru, so hopefully that will take care of it. I think its inevitable that we are going to see a TC come thru the oil spill or close, that unfortunately is something the residents on the Gulf Coast are going to have to be ready for.
Quoting Drakoen:


If you notice the bamm model is north of the XTRAP. If the system stay on it's current track shear will be lower.


Good point. This one's a fighter.
2224. MahFL
StormW, I noticed all along, mid shear was very low.
Thank you Ike.And good morning Scott39.Well off to get ready for work.Have a blessed day everyone.
Quoting Drakoen:


Moving WSW possibly...
Quoting Drakoen:


Moving WSW possibly...
If it is in fact moving slightly WSW what would that mean in terms of shear ?
2229. scott39
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Thank you Ike.And good morning Scott39.Well off to get ready for work.Have a blessed day everyone.
You too, and dont worry!
2230. pottery
It is really good to have systems like 92L come along on a regular basis.
They completely reinforce the fact that Tropical Weather is Absolutely Beyond Prediction.
Thank Goodness.....
LOL
2231. eddye
it could be going towards south fla
Quoting pottery:
It is really good to have systems like 92L come along on a regular basis.
They completely reinforce the fact that Tropical Weather is Absolutely Beyond Prediction.
Thank Goodness.....
LOL

So very true, couldn't agree more
2234. Patrap
As per the shear pushing the envelope NE.

2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve



2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively.
Scott I have no doubt that there will be a storm to hit the oil spill this summer. What we will see then will be horrible. The worst of it is that the clean up and cap operation will halt for weeks when that happens.


Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, Lets wait and see on 92L, it has a gauntlet of shear to go thru, so hopefully that will take care of it. I think its inevitable that we are going to see a TC come thru the oil spill or close, that unfortunately is something the residents on the Gulf Coast are going to have to be ready for.
2236. CJ5
Quoting P451:
92L
Color Enhanced Infared
36 Hour Loop at 1 Hour frame increments.



This image gives you a real sense of how vigorous a storm 92L really is. Shear aside, it is a an impressive invest.
2237. IKE
92L looks headed right toward the northern islands to me....
2238. scott39
Quoting StormW:


That places the center just slightly west of the convection.
Goodmornig Storm, Any thoughts on 92L surviving the shear and developing later?
Good morning

Still no surface convergence signature. How odd.

2240. Walshy
at200512
Invest 92
Wind: 35 MPH — Location: 14.3 50.8W — Movement: W
2241. calder
can someone give me an update on 92L about it's overnight progress. Been up playing poker and my head is fried looking at sat images! Just a one liner about her... tia
Quoting Drakoen:


Moving WSW possibly...
Noticed that too. Looks like a general westward motion with just a tad of southward motion.
2243. P451
Quoting SLU:
Alright, if anyone still has doubts as to whether or not 92L is a TD, then let us wait for the surface observations from buoys 41041 @ 14.5, 53w and 41NT0 @ 14.8n 52w.

Look out for:

1. signs of a closed circulation.
2. pressure tendencies
3. wind speeds of 25 - 30kts or higher.

If the convection remains well organised at the time then you can't ask for any more proof to upgrade a system to a TD.


Good points.

I do think that it looked like a TD several times over the past two days but apparently there is no surface convergence and they have not found enough reason to upgrade the system.

I don't think these guys sit there and purposely name or don't name systems just for the fun of it.

There are apparently many things that must meet a certain threshold and if one of those things doesn't then they don't upgrade the system.

It has looked very good but apparently it's just not enough.

I'm more inclined to trust the decision to NOT name a system (last year-nj hybrid) than I am to trust the naming of a system that shouldn't have been named - such as (last year-danny?).

There are always exceptions on both sides of the argument (last year-early system to hit the gulf coast was probably a storm).

Yet, again, as good or bad as some of these systems look they will be upgraded or ignored based on meeting or failing all these flags that have been set by the NHC in regards to tropical systems.

If it meets all the parameters but looks like crap it will still be named. If it looks amazing but fails one of the main parameters then it will not be named.

In the end I guess it's ticky tack as when someone witness these systems first hand - a storm is still a storm no matter it's designation.

Why we argue over the fine print with every system I don't know. I guess it's fun to do.



AL, 92, 2010061600, , BEST, 0, 141N, 475W, 30, 1010, DB,
AL, 92, 2010061606, , BEST, 0, 142N, 490W, 30, 1010, DB,
AL, 92, 2010061612, , BEST, 0, 143N, 508W, 30, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ,

Don't know about the WSW but the past 12 hours it's been just N of Due West. Coordinates overnight are always negligible when your tracking a big ball of thunderstorms though.
2245. Patrap
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

Still no surface convergence signature. How odd.




Morn' Counselor

Check it out

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis

0600 UTC

Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis

Currently, this product combines information from five data sources to create a mid-level (near 700 hPa) wind analysis using a variational approach described in Knaff and DeMaria (2006). The resulting mid-level winds are then adjusted to the surface applying a very simple single column approach. Over the ocean an adjustment factor is applied, which is a function of radius from the center ranging from 0.9 to 0.7, and the winds are turned 20 degrees toward low pressure. Over land, the oceanic winds are reduced by an additional 20% and turned an additional 20 degrees toward low pressure.

The five datasets currently used are the ASCAT scatterometer, which is adjusted upward to 700 hPa in the same manner as the surface winds are adjusted downward, feature track winds in the mid-levels from the operational satellite centers, 2-d flight-level winds estimated from infrared imagery (see Mueller et al 2006 ) and 2-d winds created from Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)- derived height fields and solving the non-linear balance equations as described in Bessho et al (2006). Past analyses also made use of the QuickSCAT scatterometer (i.e., prior to November 2009), but this satellite is no longer producing observations of surface vector winds.

Each of the input data are shown in subpanels following the analysis (i.e., storm-relative). Shown are AMSU winds, Cloud-drift/IR/WV winds, IR-proxy winds and Scatterometer winds; QuikSCAT, when available for past analyses (BLUE) and ASCAT (RED). All input data in these panels has been reduced to a 10-m land or oceanic exposure depending on the location (i.e., non-surface data has been reduced to a 10-m exposure).

How good are the wind estimates? Here is the verification based upon 2007 data . These statistics were based on 1) H*Wind data when available and 2) best track wind radii estimates from NHC. In interpreting the wind radii verification it is important to not that the zero wind radii are included in the verification, which both skews and inflates the MAE verification statistics. Note however detection is improved over climatology provided by Knaff et al. (2007).
Link

92L 34Kts winds 1013hPa
Anybody else concerned with what is emerging in the BOC?
2248. Patrap
I hope we get the TD status..

The Drama is palatable..

LOL
2250. 7544
even with the shear u think we can see it blow up again the same time tonight as it did last night it seems to like those hours when it became the big red ball tia
Quoting Patrap:
I hope we get the TD status..

The Drama is palatable..

LOL


At least an Honorary renumber or something.
2253. scott39
Quoting LongGlassTube:
Scott I have no doubt that there will be a storm to hit the oil spill this summer. What we will see then will be horrible. The worst of it is that the clean up and cap operation will halt for weeks when that happens.


Lets hope it doesnt happen, and if it does happen, hopefully BP will have it capped!
2254. Drakoen
If it can move due west from its position now it has a chance
Channel 10 news here saying that 92L really blossomed in convection and still could develop despite unfavorable conditions if it continues its westward motion. Then they brought up the NHC numbers.
Quoting Patrap:


Well not really Kman..

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis

0600 UTC

Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis

Currently, this product combines information from five data sources to create a mid-level (near 700 hPa) wind analysis using a variational approach described in Knaff and DeMaria (2006). The resulting mid-level winds are then adjusted to the surface applying a very simple single column approach. Over the ocean an adjustment factor is applied, which is a function of radius from the center ranging from 0.9 to 0.7, and the winds are turned 20 degrees toward low pressure. Over land, the oceanic winds are reduced by an additional 20% and turned an additional 20 degrees toward low pressure.

The five datasets currently used are the ASCAT scatterometer, which is adjusted upward to 700 hPa in the same manner as the surface winds are adjusted downward, feature track winds in the mid-levels from the operational satellite centers, 2-d flight-level winds estimated from infrared imagery (see Mueller et al 2006 ) and 2-d winds created from Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)- derived height fields and solving the non-linear balance equations as described in Bessho et al (2006). Past analyses also made use of the QuickSCAT scatterometer (i.e., prior to November 2009), but this satellite is no longer producing observations of surface vector winds.

Each of the input data are shown in subpanels following the analysis (i.e., storm-relative). Shown are AMSU winds, Cloud-drift/IR/WV winds, IR-proxy winds and Scatterometer winds; QuikSCAT, when available for past analyses (BLUE) and ASCAT (RED). All input data in these panels has been reduced to a 10-m land or oceanic exposure depending on the location (i.e., non-surface data has been reduced to a 10-m exposure).

How good are the wind estimates? Here is the verification based upon 2007 data . These statistics were based on 1) H*Wind data when available and 2) best track wind radii estimates from NHC. In interpreting the wind radii verification it is important to not that the zero wind radii are included in the verification, which both skews and inflates the MAE verification statistics. Note however detection is improved over climatology provided by Knaff et al. (2007).


Hi Pat. Not sure if your comment means that it is not odd that there is no convergence or that there is but that the map I posted just does not show it. If it is the latter then I don't why there is the discrepancy between the two.
I respect that Storm. LMAO
2261. scott39
Quoting StormW:


It may not survive the shear...but should be monitored in the event conditions improve quicker than forecast. I figure 92L should reach the Lesser Antilles in around 42-60 hours (depending on forward speed). Here is the wind shear forecast at 54 hours:

Thanks Storm, It looks like a wait and see for the next few days.
Quoting StormW:


LOL! Good morning!


Morning, there only a few of you on here that I would accept a one word answer from.
Latest image of 92L - 12:45 UTC - Notice Barbados in the lower left hand side of the image. You can also note that it is being sheared as it has that odd cloud formation on the eastern quadrant of the convection.

2264. Patrap
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Pat. Not sure if your comment means that it is not odd that there is no convergence or that there is but that the map I posted just does not show it. If it is the latter then I don't why there is the discrepancy between the two.



Im just as lost..

And on my fist Java Jolt as well..

I modified the post a tad
Quoting StormW:


No.
Lol.
Quoting StormW:


It may not survive the shear...but should be monitored in the event conditions improve quicker than forecast. I figure 92L should reach the Lesser Antilles in around 42-60 hours (depending on forward speed). Here is the wind shear forecast at 54 hours:



I see that showing the shear lifting out as the storm moves w to wnw....
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


I was telling you the past couple days I had been here 4 years, lol. See how time flies, I've been coming here 7 years, makes me feel old now. I started at the beginning of the 04 season under the handle ProgressivePulse. Man, time flies.
2268. Patrap
One thing for sure..the numbers are up..but she just ran into 20-25 Kts-o-shear and it wacked her upside her Tower.
Good Lord...

Quoting Patrap:
One thing for sure..the numbers are up..but she just ran into 20-25 Kts-o-shear and it wacked her upside her Tower.


LOL
Quoting DestinJeff:
looks like 50W was a brick wall ..




I think your Mr. Burns comment sparked a little voodoo magic with 92L last night, lol.
2274. scott39
Some of you dont take all your nerve pills now, you may need them more this weekend! LOL
2275. Patrap
Quoting Patrap:



Im just as lost..

And on my fist Java Jolt as well..

I modified the post a tad


Saw the modification, thanks.

Last night there were a couple of posts to the effect that the multiplatform analysis is not entirely trustworthy for winds. Not sure why that is.

The convergence is no doubt one big reason why the NHC are holding off once again from classifying. With a T # of 1.5 the two just don't jive somehow.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



I think your Mr. Burns comment sparked a little voodoo magic with 92L last night, lol.


Did you hear 92L say 'Doh!!!'?
2280. Patrap
Quoting kmanislander:


Saw the modification, thanks.

Last night there were a couple of posts to the effect that the multiplatform analysis is not entirely trustworthy for winds. Not sure why that is.

The convergence is no doubt one big reason why the NHC are holding off once again from classifying. With a T # of 1.5 the two just don't jive somehow.


That would be atmo's rant..LOL

The Obs are what they are..always.
But some have to add a tad bit of drama to everything seems.
Why?

Dunno
I'd say 93E is well on its way to Tropical Depression status.
2283. eddye
wow 92 l looksreal good
Now the SHIPS has upped its intensity forecast again:
2285. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest92

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



2286. IKE
I think the odds have increased slightly that this winds up somewhere in the GOM.
Quoting AllStar17:
Now this SHIPS has upped its intensity forecast again:
That's because the Caribbean is going to be favorable through where BAMM takes it. Let's see if it can keep its circulation in tact when it get's into the Caribbean and then it could possibly become TD #1.
2288. scott39
92l 35mph moving W
Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest92

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Nearly all of the models until now have weakened 92L at the end of the forecast period, now most of them have it holding steady or strengthening slightly towards the end. It shows that the environment could become more favorable by then if 92L remains intact.
Quoting IKE:
I think the odds have increased slightly that this winds up somewhere in the GOM.
Agreed.
2292. Patrap
Here is the new Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis from 12Z kman.

A slight improvement from 06Z

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis from 12Z
Quoting DestinJeff:
Here you can really see the shear doing a job on 92L, from just about due west.

Link


LOL!
2294. scott39
Quoting IKE:
I think the odds have increased slightly that this winds up somewhere in the GOM.
When I see you say that, little beeds of sweat get on my forehead.LOL
2295. IKE
Anyone w/a Bastardi morning take on 92L?
2296. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Anyone w/a Bastardi morning take on 92L?
Is it new or from the 13th?
2297. Patrap
LOL
2298. hercj
Quoting IKE:
I think the odds have increased slightly that this winds up somewhere in the GOM.

Ike I am an amateur to say the least but the visible satellite image does not appear to be in much shear at the moment.
2299. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Is it new or from the 13th?


From this morning.
Gfs is a horrible model to use for shear,use the wrf shear model its the best model there is.
Quoting stormmasterg92:
Gfs is a horrible model to use for shear,use the wrf shear model its the best model there is.
No it's not. I use the 200 millibar GFS and it works just fine, never have used the WRF and never intend on using the WRF.
Quoting IKE:
I think the odds have increased slightly that this winds up somewhere in the GOM.


So Ike...from 2% to like....3%?
Quoting asgolfr999:


So Ike...from 2% to like....3%?
Actually add a 0 to those numbers. More like from 20% to 30%.
At least the wrf doesn't change its opinion on shear every other run,Gfs is horrible in my opinion.
2307. Patrap
Jeff Masters new Morning entry should be interesting.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Actually add a 0 to those numbers. More like from 20% to 30%.


Waaaaayyyy too high
Quoting stormmasterg92:
At least the wrf doesn't change its opinion on shear every other run,Gfs is horrible in my opinion.
Ok, we all have opinions.
Quoting DestinJeff:
latest GFS shear forecast really shows shear lifting out after 24hrs, especially at 36hrs and beyond ..


and of course SSTs only become warmer as 92L approaches the islands.



I did some analysis last week of the 200mb GFS and it showed conditions rapidly improving starting this Friday, flipping the switch if you will.
Quoting StormW:


Funny..the GFS may have its quirks, but I've used it and compared it against the real time shear maps on a daily basis, and compared it to other shear models, and I've found it to be accurate for the past 3 seasons.
I agree.
Just some random Buoy water temps that I pulled up from NDBC

Station 42039 (LLNR 141) - PENSACOLA - 85.5 °F

Station PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City - 84.0 °F

Station 42040 (LLNR 293) - MOBILE - 89.1 °F

Station 42021 - C14 Pasco County Buoy - 86.5 °F

Station 42003 (LLNR 1395) - E GULF - 85.8 °F

Station 42001 (LLNR 1400) - MID GULF - 84.0 °F

Station SPLL1 - S. Timbalier Block 52 - 86.0 °F
Quoting Drakoen:


Moving WSW possibly...




duckin the sheer!!!,I'm still thinking this could be a threat down the line,curious why the NHC hasn't designated 92L a TD yet???,again!!!!,not writing 92L off thinking it could be a problem in 5-7days as it enters the SW carib and advects northward after that point....
2315. Patrap
I've said it before an I'll state my case again,for which Im certain.

Shear is like "bad gas",..it comes and goes and isnt the easiest to forecast downstream thru time.

So.........
So what is going on with 92L?
The wrf shear model is part of the hwrf and supplys it with info on the shear so its definetly not a bad model to use.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



I did some analysis last week of the 200mb GFS and it showed conditions rapidly improving starting this Friday, flipping the switch if you will.
Exactly. Take a look:

Notice the equatorial ridge strengthening and pushing the TUTT into the Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic.

GFS 06z 48 Hours - 200 millibar forecast -

2320. IKE
Quoting asgolfr999:


So Ike...from 2% to like....3%?


Has to go somewhere, unless it completely dissipates. Can't see it going up the east coast from what I've read. That only leaves one other option, IF it survives.

I'll give it a 1 in 3 shot of being some sort of entity, in the GOM. Anywhere from the BOC to the northern GOM.
Quoting StormW:


Funny..the GFS may have its quirks, but I've used it and compared it against the real time shear maps on a daily basis, and compared it to other shear models, and I've found it to be accurate for the past 3 seasons.


I have to agree, upper air has been rather accurate thus far. A few flip, flops but relatively accurate at the end of the day. Twas showing a marked improvement in the tropical Atlantic starting this Friday, I'm interested to see if it pans out. That was last week I was doing some analysis.
2322. Patrap
A bit o Elvis in that one StormW..

LOL
Quoting Patrap:
I've said it before an I'll stat my case again,for which Im certain.

Shear is like "bad gas",..it comes and goes and isnt the easiest to forecast downstream thru time.

So.........
LOL!
2324. Nimitz
Quoting Patrap:
I've said it before an I'll stat my case again,for which Im certain.

Shear is like "bad gas",..it comes and goes and isnt the easiest to forecast downstream thru time.

So.........


Well, for myself, when I eat a brat with chili and onions and baked beans, "bad gas" is always forecast :)
Quoting IKE:


Has to go somewhere, unless it completely dissipates. Can't see it going up the east coast from what I've read. That only leaves one other option,IF it survives.

I'll give it a 1 in 3 shot of being some sort of entity, in the GOM. Anywhere from the BOC to the northern GOM.
If it can keep it's circulation in tact until it gets to the Caribbean I'm sure it will have no problems developing, right now it's life or death instead of people saying that it should be TD #1.
Link Ruc sounding ahead of 92l.
Rattle and Roll..

16-JUN-2010 06:20:23 -1.87 136.23 4.8 35.0 IRIAN JAYA REGION, INDONESIA
16-JUN-2010 06:10:48 -1.93 136.38 4.9 35.0 IRIAN JAYA REGION, INDONESIA
16-JUN-2010 03:58:10 -2.37 136.48 6.2 19.9 IRIAN JAYA REGION, INDONESIA
16-JUN-2010 03:38:18 -2.48 136.64 5.1 35.0 IRIAN JAYA REGION, INDONESIA
16-JUN-2010 03:16:29 -2.14 136.46 7.0 28.8 IRIAN JAYA REGION, INDONESIA
16-JUN-2010 03:06:05 -2.45 136.50 6.4 25.1 IRIAN JAYA REGION, INDONESIA

The big picture...

2329. Crawls
Morning All, as you post maps, could you include a link? My computer died and I lost most of my favorites I had saved. Thanks
My internet went out for a while but I cannot stay on anyway so will catch you all later
well it kept its convection mostly, which is more than it did at any other time in its life

still does not look as impressive as it did last night
Wrf latest run does show shear weakening along 92ls path around the gfs shear projection as well.I prefer using the wrf model over the gfs just my opinion.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Here you can really see the shear doing a job on 92L, from just about due west.

Link


LOL! Got me - thanks for the laugh
For what it's worth

Quoting Hurricanes101:
well it kept its convection mostly, which is more than it did at any other time in its life

still does not look as impressive as it did last night
Well the low level clouds are now convection and it turned from an MCS to an MCC so it definitely improved.
2336. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The big picture...



Doesn't look like it's getting sheared that much.
shear does look quite hostile, it will have to fight for a few days to survive

92L is not a TD and I agree with the 10% over the next 48 hours; however I do think the chances are increasing for development beyond 48 hours
Quoting scott39:
92l 35mph moving W




so you talked to your friends at the NWS in ruskin and 92L's a TD,theirs no way it can have sustained winds of 35mph,have a closed surface low and not be designated? a TD ????
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
For what it's worth

At least it's expanding, at 9z there was barely any convergence.
Quoting IKE:
Accuweather 3 minute take on 92L, once you get by the BP add.


I wonder how much BP is spending on these ads? I see full page ads in local newspapers each day, on top of BP TV ads that play every 10 minutes.
Quoting stillwaiting:




so you talked to your friends at the NWS in ruskin and 92L's a TD,theirs no way it can have sustained winds of 35mph,have a closed surface low and not be designated? a TD ????


that isn't the same scott lol, also pressure this morning is now 1011mb, up to 1010mb.

92L is not a TD yet, but if it can survive another day or two; its chances increase after that
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
At least it's expanding, at 9z there was barely any convergence.


Hey, shear hasn't ripped it apart yet so my bet of $20 is still good.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Hey, shear hasn't ripped it apart yet so my bet of $20 is still good.
Never know, let's see.
i want dr steve lyons back
One big problem for 92L is it is moving too fast
2350. Crawls
Thanks
Quoting helove2trac:
i want dr steve lyons back


A lot of people do. He did a good, informative updates.
2352. IKE
Quoting helove2trac:
i want dr steve lyons back


Problem is, when he was on there, TWC gave him about 2 minutes to do the east-PAC and Atlantic.
Quoting IKE:


Problem is, when he was on there, TWC gave him about 2 minutes to do the east-PAC and Atlantic.


No kidding. At least when a storm was near land, he got more time.
2354. IKE
I agree though...I liked Dr. Lyons and sorry he's not at TWC anymore.
Slow down 92L we see you coming
Quoting IKE:


Problem is, when he was on there, TWC gave him about 2 minutes to do the east-PAC and Atlantic.


Yesterday, they gave Rick Knabb all of 15-30 seconds for an update.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
One big problem for 92L is it is moving too fast
Lately it's been moving towards the west with a slight hint of northward motion at about 15-20 miles per hour, definitely moving quickly.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
One big problem for 92L is it is moving too fast


Oh, there's many. lol. I thought it would make some more substantial gains last night but it didn't. It's chances have dwindled significantly today.
2359. Drakoen
Exposed low. Dry air and shear impeding the system's development:

I mean he was there when John Hope was there so there was much confident and respect for him
2361. IKE
I agree with these models on track. That looks right where 92L or it's remnants are headed...

2362. IKE
Quoting AllStar17:


Yesterday, they gave Rick Knabb all of 15-30 seconds for an update.


That's ridiculous.
It almost appears to be avoiding the shear,following the pathway of least resistance.
Quoting IKE:
I agree with these models on track. That looks right where 92L or it's remnants are headed...



If it's remnants, then I'd be more inclined to agree with the BAMS and BAMM
Quoting IKE:
I agree with these models on track. That looks right where 92L or it's remnants are headed...



I still think the remnants will hang just east of PR.
2366. cg2916
Miami, what are your current chances for 92L?
Dont see a closed surface circulation with this system just an open wave now in my view. Should move into 30-40 knots of wind shear within the next 24 hours.
Quoting IKE:
I agree with these models on track. That looks right where 92L or it's remnants are headed...

I sticking with the BAMS for the time being.
sorry scott,wrong scott,last night a "scott" was on here teeln everyone he had "friends" at the NWS....
JB this morn.


WEDNESDAY 8:00 AM

HEY I WILL CHARGE YOU A DIME TO COOL THE EARTH, INSTEAD OF A DOLLAR

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0610/38563.html

I guess the idea is that the climate bill would charge every American one dollar a day and this would help cool the earth. Well being the kind of person I am, I will only charge you a dime. How about that! In fact, my introductory offer is this: Send me no money now If in the next 18 months the earth does not cool from where it is, then you can go with their plan and I will have no qualms about it. After all if their ideas are right, and co2 is on the increase, why should the temp not increase, yet alone as I say, decrease

And how about all those "green jobs" Has anyone taken a look at what is going on in Spain, where the government dumped all the money into Green Jobs. Go take a look at that miracle.

So the Joe Bastardi offer on climate is this. Send me no money now. I predict a big decrease in the earths temps over the next 18 months,. In addition arctic sea ice will roar back and next summers melt season will be the smallest in over a decade and that will not only get back to normal by the winter of 2012, but actually spoke above normal ( against 30 year means) If all this comes out, then you can send me the dime, since my plan would be cooling the earth.

On second thought, save your dime.. you will need it with this crew of bait and switchers, because they will taking your money anyway, and in this case its for a sham and a scam.

Speaking of ...never mind, I dont want to rile TPC but 92L obviously has, and has had a closed rotary circulation. Now that convection has roared back, shouldnt they be upgrading this to a depression. After all that is their definition, closed rotary circulation, central dense overcast. What could be the problem. The water is 29 C, its a 15 north. Maybe we need water of 21C at 40 north ( grace last year) The point is their inconsistency shows with systems like this. There is no way, after lowering this to a low chance, they will upgrade even though any person with one lick of common sense knows the presentation this morning is one of a depression. Its almost like the top dissipated yesterday, so everyone could see the vivid rotation, and then set them up for today. I have no change with this.. whether they upgrade or not, its still going for the big islands, though if it survives those, its a problem for the gulf ( or perhaps Florida) next week. The argument now though is how do you justify some of the nonsense in the middle of nowhere upgrades and yet something like this is not classified?


Between Cap and Trade and things like this, you wonder
2371. leo305
Quoting hurricane23:
Dont see a closed surface circulation with this system just an open wave now in my view. Should move into 30-40 knots of westerly wind shear within the next 24 hours.


there is a clear surface low.. and the low is embedded in the convection.. you can see the convection spinning..
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Oh, there's many. lol. I thought it would make some more substantial gains last night but it didn't. It's chances have dwindled significantly today.


I dont know about the chances dwindling that significantly
Everytime I think we got something going the killer wind shows its face LOL
Quoting IKE:
I agree with these models on track. That looks right where 92L or it's remnants are headed...



Lots of land interaction won't help it any.
I wish we still had John Hope.
Good Morning!
Quoting tropicaltank:
I wish we still had John Hope.

me too, best forecaster by far!
here is proof look at 850 mb vitocity
Link
Yea John Hope was the best
Quoting cg2916:
Miami, what are your current chances for 92L?
Shear right now is bad and as Drakoen just pointed out the circulation has become visible and the thunderstorms are just being blown away. If it can keep a circulation once it gets into the Caribbean it just might develop, but I don't see any development in the next 48 hours.
Is John Hope still alive?
2382. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Shear right now is bad and as Drakoen just pointed out the circulation has become visible and the thunderstorms are just being blown away. If it can keep a circulation once it gets into the Caribbean it just might develop, but I don't see any development in the next 48 hours.


Got it.
Quoting Gatorstorm:
Is John Hope still alive?

No, he passed away, a huge loss.
2384. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
JB this morn.


WEDNESDAY 8:00 AM

HEY I WILL CHARGE YOU A DIME TO COOL THE EARTH, INSTEAD OF A DOLLAR

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0610/38563.html

I guess the idea is that the climate bill would charge every American one dollar a day and this would help cool the earth. Well being the kind of person I am, I will only charge you a dime. How about that! In fact, my introductory offer is this: Send me no money now If in the next 18 months the earth does not cool from where it is, then you can go with their plan and I will have no qualms about it. After all if their ideas are right, and co2 is on the increase, why should the temp not increase, yet alone as I say, decrease

And how about all those "green jobs" Has anyone taken a look at what is going on in Spain, where the government dumped all the money into Green Jobs. Go take a look at that miracle.

So the Joe Bastardi offer on climate is this. Send me no money now. I predict a big decrease in the earths temps over the next 18 months,. In addition arctic sea ice will roar back and next summers melt season will be the smallest in over a decade and that will not only get back to normal by the winter of 2012, but actually spoke above normal ( against 30 year means) If all this comes out, then you can send me the dime, since my plan would be cooling the earth.

On second thought, save your dime.. you will need it with this crew of bait and switchers, because they will taking your money anyway, and in this case its for a sham and a scam.

Speaking of ...never mind, I dont want to rile TPC but 92L obviously has, and has had a closed rotary circulation. Now that convection has roared back, shouldnt they be upgrading this to a depression. After all that is their definition, closed rotary circulation, central dense overcast. What could be the problem. The water is 29 C, its a 15 north. Maybe we need water of 21C at 40 north ( grace last year) The point is their inconsistency shows with systems like this. There is no way, after lowering this to a low chance, they will upgrade even though any person with one lick of common sense knows the presentation this morning is one of a depression. Its almost like the top dissipated yesterday, so everyone could see the vivid rotation, and then set them up for today. I have no change with this.. whether they upgrade or not, its still going for the big islands, though if it survives those, its a problem for the gulf ( or perhaps Florida) next week. The argument now though is how do you justify some of the nonsense in the middle of nowhere upgrades and yet something like this is not classified?


Between Cap and Trade and things like this, you wonder


Hammering the NHC. The NHC is run by the Government. People have lost faith in the Government, including the NHC.

Sad, but true. Maybe Bastardi is right about it being a depression. I don't personally care if it is or isn't at this stage, but he could be right.
Oh my John Hope has been RIP for awhile now
Give knabb a break,he hasn't even done any forecasting/updates for a TC since he started as the tropical update....


Daily update from...check my blog for the source...
Visible sat imagery this morning in my view does not show a closed surface circulation but its really tough to be sure with with convection covering up the lower clouds. Took a peak at AMSU and it only showed easterly winds.There wont be much of an impact on the islands which is whats important here. Very hostile environment just ahead.

adrian
2389. Patrap
JB..should be a Wu blogger.

Politics and weather..

They go together Like Oil and Vinegar.


But the BP Money flows thru Him Like water thru a Work Cooler.

Id say hes a tad biased to Big Oil and thus the anti AGW thing he dances with

LOL
I am a man of my word so here's the 20 bucks

2391. cg2916
Guys, 92L is done at least for now. Let's go over to the EPAC where we have a two invests, one a 50% chance and the other a 60% chance.



92E



93E
2392. IKE
I'd say it's in the heavy shear now...

IMO 92L was a deppression twice!!!!,sat night-sunday afternoon and from about 2am tues morning-now......
2394. Drakoen
92L clearly has a well-defined low pressure center on the western edge of the convection.
Quoting Drakoen:
92L clearly has a well-defined low pressure center on the western edge of the convection.
Yeah, It can be viewed using visible satellite imagery or microwave.
Quoting hurricane23:
Visible sat imagery this morning in my view does not show a closed surface circulation but its really tough to be sure with with convection covering up the lower clouds. Took a peak at AMSU and it only showed easterly winds.There wont be much of an impact on the islands which is whats important here. Very hostile environment just ahead.

adrian


Your correct...this is in the midlevels. You can also see clearly just below 92L llclouds moving WNW instead of NNE into the system.
2397. cg2916
92E:
EP, 92, 2010061612, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1054W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ,

93E:
EP, 93, 2010061612, , BEST, 0, 146N, 953W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ,
92L's ASCAT should be out within 30 minutes, let's hope it's a complete pass of the COC.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
92L's ASCAT should be out within 30 minutes, let's hope it's a complete pass of the COC.


I think that is part of the problem here, I dont think we have had 1 shot from ASCAT or Windsat that has shown the entire circulation of 92L
Quoting scottsvb:


Your correct...this is in the midlevels. You can also see clearly just below 92L llclouds moving WNW instead of NNE into the system.
Do you need glasses? It is completely evident that there is a closed surface low, it can be viewed using satellite imagery or microwave data. ASCAT should be in within 30 minutes, we shall see...
2402. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
92L's ASCAT should be out within 30 minutes, let's hope it's a complete pass of the COC.


Yesterday both ASCAT and WindSat missed it. If only there was a way to do a floater on it like GOES does.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I think that is part of the problem here, I dont think we have had 1 shot from ASCAT or Windsat that has shown the entire circulation of 92L
I think 3 days ago was the last complete pass of 92L's COC, let's hope we can get another one.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Do you need glasses? It is completely evident that there is a closed surface low, it can be viewed using satellite imagery or microwave data. ASCAT should be in within 30 minutes, we shall see...


please stop quoting him
Quoting stillwaiting:
IMO 92L was a deppression twice!!!!,sat night-sunday afternoon and from about 2am tues morning-now......

It could have been,but since no planes went out checj the storm out, i guess will never know for sure! If passes over Puerto Rico, i'll post info about the effects here!
Quoting Hurricanes101:


please stop quoting him
Yeah I will.
2407. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Do you need glasses? It is completely evident that there is a closed surface low, it can be viewed using satellite imagery or microwave data. ASCAT should be in within 30 minutes, we shall see...


Yeah. The NHC might possibly declare it. The only reason it's at 10% is because it will hit shear soon. I doubt it, though.
Quoting cg2916:


Yeah. The NHC might possibly declare it. The only reason it's at 10% is because it will hit shear soon.
No classification any time soon, imo. The only time that 92L will be classified is if and when it gets into the Caribbean with a circulation.
Quoting cg2916:


Yeah. The NHC might possibly declare it. The only reason it's at 10% is because it will hit shear soon.

NHC will declare it? A TD or RIP ?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
JB this morn.


WEDNESDAY 8:00 AM

HEY I WILL CHARGE YOU A DIME TO COOL THE EARTH, INSTEAD OF A DOLLAR

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0610/38563.html

I guess the idea is that the climate bill would charge every American one dollar a day and this would help cool the earth. Well being the kind of person I am, I will only charge you a dime. How about that! In fact, my introductory offer is this: Send me no money now If in the next 18 months the earth does not cool from where it is, then you can go with their plan and I will have no qualms about it. After all if their ideas are right, and co2 is on the increase, why should the temp not increase, yet alone as I say, decrease

And how about all those "green jobs" Has anyone taken a look at what is going on in Spain, where the government dumped all the money into Green Jobs. Go take a look at that miracle.

So the Joe Bastardi offer on climate is this. Send me no money now. I predict a big decrease in the earths temps over the next 18 months,. In addition arctic sea ice will roar back and next summers melt season will be the smallest in over a decade and that will not only get back to normal by the winter of 2012, but actually spoke above normal ( against 30 year means) If all this comes out, then you can send me the dime, since my plan would be cooling the earth.

On second thought, save your dime.. you will need it with this crew of bait and switchers, because they will taking your money anyway, and in this case its for a sham and a scam.

Speaking of ...never mind, I dont want to rile TPC but 92L obviously has, and has had a closed rotary circulation. Now that convection has roared back, shouldnt they be upgrading this to a depression. After all that is their definition, closed rotary circulation, central dense overcast. What could be the problem. The water is 29 C, its a 15 north. Maybe we need water of 21C at 40 north ( grace last year) The point is their inconsistency shows with systems like this. There is no way, after lowering this to a low chance, they will upgrade even though any person with one lick of common sense knows the presentation this morning is one of a depression. Its almost like the top dissipated yesterday, so everyone could see the vivid rotation, and then set them up for today. I have no change with this.. whether they upgrade or not, its still going for the big islands, though if it survives those, its a problem for the gulf ( or perhaps Florida) next week. The argument now though is how do you justify some of the nonsense in the middle of nowhere upgrades and yet something like this is not classified?


Between Cap and Trade and things like this, you wonder


Two things.
1) solar activity is on the increase, which makes it HIGHLY unlikely we'll see any significant cooling in the next couple of years
2) for how many years are people like Bastardi (and Dr. Gray said it 3 years ago) going to say, "No worries. The earth will cool down."
At least JB is putting out something that is quantifiable in the next year and a half. Unlike Gore and your other heros, whose forecasts we won't be able to verify for decades...

Hers a JB redux:


So the Joe Bastardi offer on climate is this. Send me no money now. I predict a big decrease in the earths temps over the next 18 months,. In addition arctic sea ice will roar back and next summers melt season will be the smallest in over a decade and that will not only get back to normal by the winter of 2012, but actually spoke above normal ( against 30 year means) If all this comes out, then you can send me the dime, since my plan would be cooling the earth.
I did some math and expect a partial ASCAT pass.
2413. leo305
lets see what happens
2414. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No classification any time soon, imo. The only time that 92L will be classified is if and when it gets into the Caribbean with a circulation.


I edited my post saying I doubt it. That would be cool if they did.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I did some math and expect a partial ASCAT pass.


what else is new
2417. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I did some math and expect a partial ASCAT pass.


How much of it, percentage wise, can you see when it comes.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No classification any time soon, imo. The only time that 92L will be classified is if and when it gets into the Caribbean with a circulation.

Do you think the NHC will fly in to it?
Quoting Caribbeanislands101:

NHC will declare it? A TD or RIP ?
I personally think that the NHC should keep 92L yellow until it gets into the Caribbean (If it doesn't dissipate first, of course).
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I think that is part of the problem here, I dont think we have had 1 shot from ASCAT or Windsat that has shown the entire circulation of 92L


I agree, it's nearly impossible to verify an LLC in a developing depression without a good ASCAT pass. Especially one that has a large CDO covering everything up. Maybe seeing a lot of direct to TS this year unless there happens to be a buoy or ship in the area.
Quoting Caribbeanislands101:

Do you think the NHC will fly in to it?


No, recon cancelled

NOUS42 KNHC 151330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 15 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-015

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No classification any time soon, imo. The only time that 92L will be classified is if and when it gets into the Caribbean with a circulation.


I think that this is probably a fair assessment. Maybe they're waiting to see how it weathers the next round of heavy shear it'll encounter? Didn't someone mention 30-50kt shear coming soon? If so, that maybe the delay. Right now the convection blow-up is impressive...
2423. cg2916
NEW BLOG!!!
Quoting Hurricanes101:


No, recon cancelled

NOUS42 KNHC 151330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 15 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-015

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Thanks!!
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I think that this is probably a fair assessment. Maybe they're waiting to see how it weathers the next round of heavy shear it'll encounter? Didn't someone mention 30-50kt shear coming soon? If so, that maybe the delay. Right now the convection blow-up is impressive...

StormW said that the shear was going to start easing off today
Quoting IKE:
I'd say it's in the heavy shear now...


in an area of drecrasing shear notice the dashed light blue lines
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
At least JB is putting out something that is quantifiable in the next year and a half. Unlike Gore and your other heros, whose forecasts we won't be able to verify for decades...

Hers a JB redux:


So the Joe Bastardi offer on climate is this. Send me no money now. I predict a big decrease in the earths temps over the next 18 months,. In addition arctic sea ice will roar back and next summers melt season will be the smallest in over a decade and that will not only get back to normal by the winter of 2012, but actually spoke above normal ( against 30 year means) If all this comes out, then you can send me the dime, since my plan would be cooling the earth.


From June 2006

http://www.denverpost.com/harsanyi/ci_3899807

"Gray acknowledges that we've had some warming the past 30 years. "I don't question that," he explains. "And humans might have caused a very slight amount of this warming. Very slight. But this warming trend is not going to keep on going. My belief is that three, four years from now, the globe will start to cool again, as it did from the middle '40s to the middle '70s."


We just had our warmest March, April (and May?) globally on record.
Ferris Behuler is my hero.
Dr. Masters (and all those who comment here), could you maybe include more comments/info on the east pacific tropical weather, your blog seems to focus more in the Atlantic and Gulf. Right now there are two invests in the pacific, close to each other, and there just doesn't seem to be a lot of info/predictions/discussion of these things. I live in Mexico, in the central highlands, there are over 1 million Americans living in Mexico and a lot of us are interested in pacific storm development and how it might affect us. We do not have a lot of good information available to us. I appreciate all the info posted here, and hope to see more on the east pacific soon. Thank you.
Quoting xaratanga:
Dr. Masters (and all those who comment here), could you maybe include more comments/info on the east pacific tropical weather, your blog seems to focus more in the Atlantic and Gulf. Right now there are two invests in the pacific, close to each other, and there just doesn't seem to be a lot of info/predictions/discussion of these things. I live in Mexico, in the central highlands, there are over 1 million Americans living in Mexico and a lot of us are interested in pacific storm development and how it might affect us. We do not have a lot of good information available to us. I appreciate all the info posted here, and hope to see more on the east pacific soon. Thank you.


Thats a good point. You'd think that we'd talk about those more too. But, then most of those storms head away from Mexico and out to sea. I do think that you hear about them when there is either a very large one, or if indeed it is heading towards the mainland.
Quoting mcmurray02:


Thats a good point. You'd think that we'd talk about those more too. But, then most of those storms head away from Mexico and out to sea. I do think that you hear about them when there is either a very large one, or if indeed it is heading towards the mainland.

Hey, thanks for the response, I appreciate it. One of those has been upgraded to a Tropical Depression, and its path hugs the coast.. so it will most likely impact Acapulco, Zihuatenejo and if it doesn't peter out, Puerto Vallarta and points north. Up here in the highlands, well it would be a rare event for one of them to turn and come my way, but if the storm is big enough and close enough to the coast, we do get some effects from them.

Its just sort of frustrating, in his post above Dr. Masters says....Elsewhere in the Tropics....and then goes on to say NOTHING about what's happening in the pacific...it just frustrates me that it is so hard to find good info on what's going on here. When I first moved to Mexico, I lived in Manzanillo, and the second month I was there we had a hurricane. Not only could I not get info on it from the web....like should I evacuate....but even the local radio announcers were frustrated, they had no idea what was going on, what course the hurricane was on, if it was coming inland...tidal surge info....that was 7 years ago and things are a little better now, but not much.
Sorry to rant, I would just like more info, weather fascinates me, wish I had studied it when I was younger, I can't even find info like if la Nina is going to cause more rain or less rain here in the highlands. I live in a very poor area so I guess we just get overlooked. Water resources are a huge local issue, and we definitely would benefit from more rain, but I also know that in some communities, it can cause problems like it did last February when we had 3 days of rain with totals we don't usually see in a month of rainy season. Again, sorry to rant, I just wish I had more weather data about my region available. I'm in the highlands of Michoacan state.