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Heat wave breaks more all-time records in Midwest; relief coming Sunday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:50 PM GMT on July 07, 2012

The extraordinary heat wave of late June/early July 2012 toppled more Dust Bowl-era records on Friday, with three cities in Michigan hitting their hottest temperatures ever recorded. Lansing hit 103°, the hottest day in Michigan's capital city since record keeping began in 1863. Lansing has hit 102° four times, most recently on July 24, 1934. Muskegon, MI hit 99°, matching that city's record for all-time hottest temperature set on August 3, 1964. Records go back to 1896 in Muskegon, which has never hit 100°, due to the cooling effect of nearby Lake Michigan. Holland, MI hit 102° Friday, tied for hottest temperature in city history. Grand Rapids, MI hit 104° Friday, the third hottest temperature in city history. Only two readings during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936 were warmer: 108° on July 13, 1936, and 106° on July 12, 1936.


Figure 1. Water temperatures averaged over Lake Michigan are running 11°F (6°C) above average so far in 2012. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.

Chicago's third consecutive 100°+ day ties record for longest such streak
Chicago, IL hit 103° Friday, which was just 2° shy of their official all-time high of 105° set on July 24, 1934 (the unofficial Midway Airport site recorded 109° on July 23, 1934, though.) Friday was the third consecutive day with a temperature of 100° or hotter in Chicago, tying the record for most consecutive 100° days (set on July 3 - 5, 1911 and Aug 4 - 6, 1947.) Historically, Chicago has 15 days per summer over 90° and 1 day every 2.3 years over 100°. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Chicago could experience over 70 days above 90° by 2100 and 30 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Chicago has seen 18 days over 90° and 4 over 100° in 2012. The record number of 100° days in Chicago is 8, set in 1988. The heat wave in Chicago comes at the end of a nine-month period of record warmth in the city, including the warmest March on record. As a result, Lake Michigan has heated up to the warmest levels ever seen this early in the year. Temperatures of 80°--fifteen degrees above average--were measured at the South Buoy on Lake Michigan on Friday.


Figure 2. Climate models predict many more hot summers like 2012 ahead for Chicago. Image credit: Union of Concerned Scientists.

Historic heat wave in Indiana
"The Indianapolis area is nearing the end of an historic heat wave, the likes the area has not seen in 76 years," said the Indianapolis National Weather Service on Friday. To make matters worse, current drought conditions are worse than during the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. The only times less rain fell from May 1 - July 5 were 1988 and 1895. Indianapolis hit 105° Friday, which was just 1° shy of their official all-time high of 106° set at the official downtown site on July 14, 1936 and July 25, 1934. (The unofficial airport site recorded 107° on July 25, 1934.) Historically, Indianapolis has 17 days per summer over 90° and less than 1 day over 100. Under a higher-emissions scenario, climate change models predict that Indianapolis could experience over 80 days above 90° by 2100, and 28 days over 100°. With summer less than half over, Indianapolis has seen 20 days over 90° and 5 over 100° so far in 2012. Only the years 1936 and 1934 had more 100 degrees days: 1936 with 12, and 1934 with 9.


Figure 2. The severe weather map for Saturday, July 7, 2012, had advisories for extreme heat (pink colors) for portions of 26 states.

The forecast: more record heat Saturday, then relief
More record-breaking triple-digit heat is expected Saturday across much of the Midwest and Tennessee Valley. All-time highs in Washington D.C. (106°), Pittsburgh (103°), Indianapolis (106°), and Louisville (107°) may be threatened. However, sweet relief is in sight. A cold front will move southwards out of Canada on Saturday and Sunday, putting an end to this phase of the great heat wave of 2012. By Monday, temperatures will be near average for most of the eastern 2/3 of the U.S., and will remain near average for the entire week.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

I'll be back Monday with a full wrap-up on the remarkable heat wave of 2012. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters
Electric Night
Electric Night
Another Hot Sunset 2
Another Hot Sunset 2

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Derived from the 9July12amGMT (NHC) ATCF data for HurricaneDaniel:
Its vector had changed from 14.5mph(23.3km/h) dueWest to 14.5mph(23.3km/h) West (slightly north)
MaxSusWinds had held steady at 90knots(103mph)167km/h
And minimum pressure had held steady at 970millibars

For those who like to visually track H.Daniel's path...
HI25 is Naalehu :: SAN is SanDiego

Easternmost dot on the connected line-segments is where TS.Daniel became H.Daniel
Easternmost dot on the longest line is H.Daniel's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through H.Daniel's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to Hawaii.
8July6amGMT: H.Daniel had been headed toward passing 230miles(370kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Top half of the blob)
8July12pmGMT: H.Daniel had been headed toward passing 127miles(204kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Lone unconnected dot north of the straightline projection)
8July6pmGMT: H.Daniel had been headed toward passing 411miles(661kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Lone unconnected dot south of the straightline projection)
9July12amGMT: H.Daniel had been headed toward passing 245miles(394kilometres) South of Hawaii
(bottom half of the blob) in ~5days15hours from now

Copy&paste 9n161w, hi25, 15.57n155.472w, 17.064n155.643w, 12.995n154.839w, san, 14.4n116.5w-14.5n117.5w, 14.5n117.5w-14.6n118.6w, 14.6n118.6w-14.7n119.6w, 14.7n119.6w-14.8n120.7w, 14.8n120.7w-14.9n121.7w, 14.9n121.7w-15.1n123.1w, 15.1n123.1w-15.1n124.4w, 15.1n124.4w-15.2n125.7w, 15.1n124.4w-15.358n155.441w, 18.911n155.681w-15.358n155.441w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison
It would be a bumpy ride inside Emilia, also lots of water.:
ATCF updated the 00z Best Track to 60kts.

EP, 05, 2012070900, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1078W, 60, 995, TS

Link
1505. yoboi
(RNN) - You could be booted off the internet on Monday. That means no Facebook, no Twitter, no Pinterest and no searching for the answer to sports trivia like who was pitching when Bobby Thomson hit "The Shot Heard ‘Round the World."

Beginning in 2007, Cyber criminals used a malware program called DNSChanger to infect 4 million computers belonging to people, business, government agencies – including NASA - in more than 100 countries. The FBI now believes that number is down to 277,000 worldwide.

The FBI conducted a two-year investigation called "Operation Ghost Click" and arrested six Estonian nationals in November 2011.

Realizing that if the malicious servers were shutdown many people would lose internet access, the FBI set up two safe servers to replace the infected ones.

Those safe servers will be shutdown at 12:01 ET Monday, July 9, cutting off internet access to thousands of people.

Many people, however, do not know their computers are infected despite warnings from the FBI, Google and Facebook.

The malware was used in a fraudulent internet advertising scheme, generating $14 million for the criminals. Infected computers were directed to click on advertising created by the criminals, who then garnered the commission from the clicks.

Infected computers also are vulnerable to other viruses and somewhat immune to antivirus programs.

To check if your computer is infected, visit www.dcwg.org. The website will walk you through the instructions on how to check your computer and disinfect it if needed.

Be sure to check your computer now because you'll have a hard time searching for pitcher who served up Thomson's famous homer in 1951 – the Brooklyn Dodgers Ralph Branca.

Copyright 2012 Raycom News Network. All rights reserved
Very close to hurricane status.

384Hr lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Beautiful Hurricane
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
384Hr lol


Seriously raised 500MB heights
I'm shocked that Emilia is still a tropical storm... it got to be Category 1 by now.
1511. hydrus
Quoting pcola57:
Wind Map..I'm not sure who turned me onto this here at WU but it is soo cool.. :)
I book marked that one too..He has been reading the blog for a long time, but rarely posts.
1512. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:



I can support dat.



is it a tree shaker or a tree breaker; we should use that to describe storms from now on.....
Quoting yoboi:



is it a tree shaker or a tree breaker; we should use that to describe storms from now on.....


It could be a tree hugger.
1514. Patrap
1505.


If your PC comes up green here.

Yer good to go
Quoting yoboi:



is it a tree shaker or a tree breaker; we should use that to describe storms from now on.....


Ie lee was a tree shaker Katrina was a tree breaker
T.C.F.W
R.I.FLAG FLAG
05E/XH/E/C1
MARK
11.13N/107.8W
1517. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
1505.


If your PC comes up green here.

Yer good to go


i hope my work comp crashes and burns, that would be a nice and quiet monday.....
Very deep convection.



im back, nice to see emilia chugging along
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Very deep convection.





this will be a 4
knockin at the door
I have a tropical Atlantic update I released at 4 PM today....highlighting a couple areas of interest (none of which are that serious at this time)...

But all props go to the E-pac tonight...that's for sure....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


this will be a 4
knockin at the door


My personal peak for Emilia is 125kts.


Current Intensity Analyst UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2012 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 11:44:39 N Lon : 107:43:42 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 975.6mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.0 3.5

Center Temp : -77.8C Cloud Region Temp : -62.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
???
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


My personal peak for Emilia is 125kts.

I can't stay motivated with E-pac storms...don't know how you all do it...most of them do the same thing (go WNW then go poof over the cool California current)....
Yet the deep convection area is still deepening and growing and the overall structure is more circular:
Quoting wxchaser97:


Current Intensity Analyst UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2012 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 11:44:39 N Lon : 107:43:42 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 975.6mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.0 3.5

Center Temp : -77.8C Cloud Region Temp : -62.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
???

CIMSS has been unstable for most of the day, just ignore it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

CIMSS has been unstable for most of the day, just ignore it.
I was really confused since Emilia was looking way more organized, thanks TA13.
Quoting Patrap:
1505.


If your PC comes up green here.

Yer good to go

I tried too...wohooo I passed!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The eye can now be seen in infrared geostationary imagery.



sure they are not being tricked?
it doesnt look to be in the right place
if its an eye its a pinhole
1531. nigel20
Good evening all!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


sure they are not being tricked?
it doesnt look to be in the right place

That deep burst of convection has obscured it some. It was clearly visible earlier.



1533. nigel20
Quoting wxchaser97:
Yet the deep convection area is still deepening and growing and the overall structure is more circular:

Emilia is looking quite impressive ATM.
Possible Tornado, 2 Buildings Collapse in VA

Apparently there was an 80mph golfball storm to my south and i missed it...
All it did was rain and get me wet...
the benjamin curse continues
1535. hydrus
Who can answer the fastest..What U.S. pilot first intentionally flew into a hurricane?
Quoting hydrus:
Who can answer the fastest..What U.S. pilot first intentionally flew into a hurricane?


whoever you think it is you are wrong, it was grothar!!!

seriously i would say chuck matthews?
just a wild guess
Quoting hydrus:
Who can answer the fastest..What U.S. pilot first intentionally flew into a hurricane?

Joseph Duckworth.

Just looked that up yesterday. :P
well good night



all of you good luck tonight at midnight
Quoting hydrus:
Who can answer the fastest..What U.S. pilot first intentionally flew into a hurricane?


Joseph Duckworth.
1540. Patrap

Lew Fincher
Hurricane Consulting

Bill Read
Houston / Galveston Area National Weather Service



The First Flight Into A Hurricane's Eye
(as recalled by Lt. Colonel (retired) Ralph O Hair)

On the morning of July 27th, 1943, British pilots were being trained in the new field of "Instrument" flying at Bryan Field by the lead instructor, Colonel Joe Duckworth. This morning, word was being spread that a hurricane was coming ashore near Galveston and that the planes at the field may have to be flown out for safety. Many of the British pilots were already "Aces" from earlier battles over Europe and felt that they deserved to be trained in the top fighters that the United States had to offer, not this AT-6 "Texan" Trainer. When they heard that the planes may have to be flown away from the storm, they really started gigging the instructors about the frailty of their trainer. The problem was that few, if any European had ever experienced a true hurricane.

They thought it was just another big thunderstorm. Finally Colonel Duckworth had enough of the ribbing and whining of these pilots and bet them that he could fly the "Texan" into the storm and back, showing that both the plane and his instrument flying technique was sound. Well the bet was on. A highball to the winner! Colonel Duckworth then looked across the breakfast table at Lieutenant Ralph O'Hair, the only navigator at the field that morning and asked him to fly with him. O'Hair was taken back by the bet but agreed to fly with him, due to the respect he had for Duckworth s skill as a pilot. Since they felt that Headquarters wouldn t approve the flight due to the risk of the aircraft and the crew, they decided to do it without official permission. The main problem that passed through Lt. O'Hair s mind was that if their single engine quit for some reason like being flooded out from the heavy rain, they would be in deep trouble. As they closed on the hurricane which was now ashore, he thought about what it would be like if he had to use the parachute. As they approached the storm at a height of between four thousand to nine thousand feet the air became very turbulent. He described the flight now as like, "being tossed about like a stick in a dog s mouth." The rain was very heavy as the flew through the darkness, fighting the updrafts and downdrafts.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Joseph Duckworth.

Just looked that up yesterday. :P


Thanks for beating me TA.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Thanks for beating me TA.

You're welcome. Lol.
Post 1533: Emilia is close to hurricane and geting closer every minute. She really is looking beautiful:



We'll see what the NHC advisory will be in a little bit.
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
0300 UTC MON JUL 09 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 108.4W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 108.4W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 12.1N 110.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 12.7N 112.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.3N 114.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 13.6N 115.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.2N 119.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 15.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 16.0N 127.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 108.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012

...EMILIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 108.4W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
0300 UTC MON JUL 09 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 126.3W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 126.3W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 125.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.4N 128.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.6N 131.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.7N 134.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.7N 137.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.9N 143.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 15.7N 149.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 15.5N 155.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 126.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
1547. hydrus
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Joseph Duckworth.

Just looked that up yesterday. :P
1943 off the coast of Texas.
1548. nigel20
...EMILIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...
8:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 8
Location: 11.6°N 108.4°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012

DANIEL HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SUB-25C WATERS.
HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN TO WARM...AND
THE CLOUD-FILLED 10-15 N MI WIDE EYE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
OBSCURED IN LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE AT T5.0/90 KT AT 0000 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 85 KT BASED ON THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE
CYCLONE SINCE THAT TIME. WITH THE VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO REMAIN
LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE MAIN CONTRIBUTION TO
WEAKENING SHOULD BE THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
RE-INTENSIFICATION EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER
SOMEWHAT WARMER WATERS. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE LGEM
AND INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.

DANIEL HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A STEADY MOTION OF 275/12. THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER DANIEL WESTWARD AT A SIMILAR
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER WEAKENING TO A SHALLOW
CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE COULD INDUCE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CONTINUES
TO LIE BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 15.3N 126.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 15.4N 128.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 15.6N 131.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 15.7N 134.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 15.7N 137.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 15.9N 143.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 15.7N 149.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0000Z 15.5N 155.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIEL ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012

...DANIEL SLOWLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 126.3W
ABOUT 1190 MI...1915 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
1551. nigel20
...DANIEL SLOWLY WEAKENING...
8:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 8
Location: 15.3°N 126.3°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph
DANIEL SLOWLY WEAKENING...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

8:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 8
Location: 15.3°N 126.3°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph


...EMILIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

8:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 8
Location: 11.6°N 108.4°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

Almost there, I think a cat4 is where she will peak at instead of 120mph.
1553. hydrus
Emilia has a knot....
#1528.... That was very funny - out of a clear blue sky, too! lol

But now my blog is messed up.... :o/
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012

GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT EMILIA MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
FORMING AN EYE...AND A TIMELY 0105 UTC SSMIS PASS CONFIRMS THAT AT
LEAST HALF OF AN EYEWALL HAS FORMED NEAR VERY DEEP CONVECTION EAST
OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE IMPROVEMENTS IN CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR EMILIA TO INTENSIFY STEADILY...IF NOT
RAPIDLY...OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SHEAR REMAINS LOW AND THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 28C FOR THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...AN ENHANCED OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS FORMED
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT DOWNSTREAM OF THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE
DANIEL. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS EMILIA BECOMING A HURRICANE BY 12
HOURS AND REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER 72 HOURS...EMILIA WILL
BE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL
WEAKENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS SHOWN BY THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT EMILIA SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EMILIA MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NHC FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
HOW MUCH EMILIA WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING WESTWARD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GFS
SHOWS THE MOST INTERACTION AND MORE OF A WEST-NORTHEST MOTION AT
DAY 2 AND BEYOND...AS IT HAS THE DEEPEST REPRESENTATION OF THE
EMILIA VORTEX. AT THE OTHER EXTREME...THE UKMET SHOWS A MUCH
SHALLOWER REPRESENTATION OF EMILIA THAT DOES NOT FEEL THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH AND THEREFORE MOVES SOUTH OF DUE WEST AFTER
48 HOURS. GIVEN THAT EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS...SOME INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH SEEMS LIKELY. THE NEW
NHC FORECAST REFLECTS THAT SCENARIO AND LIES A LITTLE NORTH OF THE
TVCE CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 11.6N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 12.1N 110.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 12.7N 112.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 13.3N 114.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 13.6N 115.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 14.2N 119.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 15.0N 123.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 16.0N 127.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
1556. nigel20
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 090241
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012

GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT EMILIA MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
FORMING AN EYE...AND A TIMELY 0105 UTC SSMIS PASS CONFIRMS THAT AT
LEAST HALF OF AN EYEWALL HAS FORMED NEAR VERY DEEP CONVECTION EAST
OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE IMPROVEMENTS IN CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR EMILIA TO INTENSIFY STEADILY...IF NOT
RAPIDLY...OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SHEAR REMAINS LOW AND THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 28C FOR THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...AN ENHANCED OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS FORMED
IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT DOWNSTREAM OF THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE
DANIEL. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS EMILIA BECOMING A HURRICANE BY 12
HOURS AND REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER 72 HOURS...EMILIA WILL
BE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL
WEAKENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS SHOWN BY THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT EMILIA SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EMILIA MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NHC FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN
HOW MUCH EMILIA WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING WESTWARD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GFS
SHOWS THE MOST INTERACTION AND MORE OF A WEST-NORTHEST MOTION AT
DAY 2 AND BEYOND...AS IT HAS THE DEEPEST REPRESENTATION OF THE
EMILIA VORTEX. AT THE OTHER EXTREME...THE UKMET SHOWS A MUCH
SHALLOWER REPRESENTATION OF EMILIA THAT DOES NOT FEEL THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH AND THEREFORE MOVES SOUTH OF DUE WEST AFTER
48 HOURS. GIVEN THAT EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS...SOME INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH SEEMS LIKELY. THE NEW
NHC FORECAST REFLECTS THAT SCENARIO AND LIES A LITTLE NORTH OF THE
TVCE CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 11.6N 108.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 12.1N 110.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 12.7N 112.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 13.3N 114.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 13.6N 115.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 14.2N 119.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 15.0N 123.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 16.0N 127.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Emilia will probably peak at 145 and I want to remark that the ACE of the ENP should be a lot with these types of systems.
Daniel: compared to Emilia:


edit 'cause we don't need 4 forecast discussions
1560. hydrus
Forecast for Emilia:

Well, I guess that's it for me... I give up on trying to get around GAstorm's video post.
1563. hydrus
Who was the first director of the NHC.?
The NHC's prediction for Emilia to peak at 120 is low. Daniel reached 115 and went far higher than the pros thought. Emilia is in much more favorable conditions than Daniel and has plenty of time as they stated in their last update. Also Emilia already has 1/2 an eyewall and an eye so I think Emilia is ready to undergo some rapid intensification and will at least reach cat 4 maybe even cat 5 although that might be a little difficult to achieve. That's what I've gathered so far...
1565. nigel20
Quoting wxchaser97:
Forecast for Emilia:


I think that Emilia will be close or at major hurricane status by late Monday.
Quoting Post 1496:those are some extreme cold cloud tops...


Bone-chillin' Michigan cold cloud tops!
Quoting hydrus:
Who was the first director of the NHC.?

Gordon Dunn.
Emilia looks to take the exact same path as Daniel but stronger and maybe a little farther south.
Quoting hydrus:
Who was the first director of the NHC.?


I turn to google and then I say to self, "Um, what was the question again?" Looks back at hydrus's post...

round two: turn back to google after typing the above and then "wait, what was the question?"
*Big Sigh*

round three: turn to google after round 2, type question, hit search, top 10 results, no answer...

I GIVE UP. WHAT IS IT?
Quoting post 1565. nigel20
I think that Emilia will be close or at major hurricane status by late Monday.


Definitely reasonable since it is almost a hurricane and strengthening really quickly. I say between Mon pm and Tues am and a peak around 140-150mph seeing what Daniel could do with Emilia being in a better enviorment.
Quoting BahaHurican:
#1528.... That was very funny - out of a clear blue sky, too! lol

But now my blog is messed up.... :o/


ill take it down, think its just you with the problem though
*Singing* Thunderstorms surrounding me all day but no rain.
Post 1534: Is this the same as that, its listed as T-storm wind damage on spc and 0 tornado reports(I know its possible tornado but this is for clarrification).

2131 UNK 3 S FREDERICKSBURG SPOTSYLVANIA VA 3826 7749 *** 2 INJ *** STRUCTURAL COLLAPSE ON FLEMING ST OFF JEFF DAVIS HWY (LWX)
1574. hydrus
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Gordon Dunn.

Gordon Dunn (1965–1967)
Robert Simpson (1967–1973), co-creator of the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale.
Neil Frank (1973–1987), responsible for creating strong ties between NHC and the media while director.
Bob Sheets (1987–1995)
Bob Burpee (1995–1997)
Jerry Jarrell (1998–2000)
Britt Max Mayfield (2000–2007)
Xavier William Proenza (2007)
Edward (Ed) N. Rappaport (2007–2008)
Bill Read (2008–2012)
Richard Knabb (2012-)
Quoting wxchaser97:
Post 1534: Is this the same as that, its listed as T-storm wind damage on spc and 0 tornado reports(I know its possible tornado but this is for clarrification).

2131 UNK 3 S FREDERICKSBURG SPOTSYLVANIA VA 3826 7749 *** 2 INJ *** STRUCTURAL COLLAPSE ON FLEMING ST OFF JEFF DAVIS HWY (LWX)


probably, i dont think it was a tornado
1576. hydrus
108 today at Farmville, VA. That appears to be a monthly state record high. This shows the record for July at 107 at Lincoln in 1934. I don't know if the NWS still updates these records though. I know Petersburg reached 108 in June, which would beat the 105 at St. Paul from 1970. I don't know if any of these are considered official since they are both AWOS sites. Today's reading at Farmville was certainly plausible though, with numerous sites showing 103 to 106 nearby.

Virginia monthly extremes: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0930264.html

Farmville, VA daily temps (108 at 4:35, 5:15 PM):
http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFVX.html
1578. hydrus
What hurricane since records have been kept had the highest average 24 hour wind speed in the U.S.?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


probably, i dont think it was a tornado
On July 15th, 2010 at around 6:00pm-6:30pm my city(Berkley, MI) had 60-70mph winds which downed many trees, power lines/poles, fires,and even damaged a few houses and most people called it a tornado. Even the warning sirens went off but thats because Oakland county sounds sirens for tornadoes or severe storms with 70 mph winds. The damage was just straight line wind damage from a bow echo, so probably not.

From dtx nws: On July 15, 2010, severe thunderstorms moved through most of Southeast Michigan. There were 32 severe weather reports included a measured 71 mph wind gust near Davison and wind damage consistent with winds up to 80 mph in Flushing. Most of the reports were wind gust and associated wind damage, but there were a few isolated large hail reports.


Good thing they are not coming at the US(mabey PT for Hawaii) or there would be many issues.
I wrote a blog for Hurricane Daniel. Started the section(s) for Emilia, but ran out of time as I have to go now. Good night all and I'll have a full blog out for both systems tomorrow morning.

Daniel briefly becomes a major hurricane overnight, now on a weakening trend
1582. hydrus
One last image before I go .


It would be extremely hard for Daniel and hard for Emilia to get to Hawaii as anything major.
a little big lightning storm here in DC.
nite all
Quoting hydrus:
What hurricane since records have been kept had the highest average 24 hour wind speed in the U.S.?


andrew?
camille?

now im out.
i think
1587. hydrus
With seventeen storms, this season was slightly above average. At eleven, the number of hurricanes was also above average. In the central Pacific, one tropical storm formed. Very unusually, on August 26 there were six systems active: Ione, Olive, Kirsten, Lorraine, Joyce, and Maggie. Olive was a Central Pacific storm and had weakened to a tropical depression by this time. The other five were of at least tropical storm intensity simultaneously and remained so until 06Z Aug 27. Five storms were also active 18Z Aug 23-06Z Aug 24To list an example of how far behind we were with satellite intensity observations, just take a look at these images and you can see for yourself that they were inaccurate. I would bet if the mets reviewed this puupy, it would be reclassified as a major..:).Eastern Pacific 1974..Hurricane Kirsten
Category 1 hurricane (SSHS)

Duration August 22 %u2013 August 29
Intensity 85 mph (140 km/h) (1-min), 973 mbar (hPa)

Hurricane Kirsten took an erratic path. After traveling northwest for a while, it reversed direction and backtracked to almost where it started. It then reversed direction again and underwent a Fujiwhara interaction with Hurricane Ione.Part of NOAA-3 visible range VHRR image of Hurricanes Ione (left) and Kirsten (right.) The effect of two interacting hurricanes is termed the Fujiwhara effect.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


now im out.
i think


ok one last thing,
satellite of june 29 derecho:
The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
the District of Columbia...
eastern Arlington County in northern Virginia...
eastern city of Alexandria in northern Virginia...
central Prince Georges County in central Maryland...

* until 1230 am EDT

* at 1145 PM EDT... a severe thunderstorm was detected near Rosslyn...
and was moving east at 10 mph. This storm is capable of producing
hail up to the size of quarters and damaging winds in excess of 60
mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Crystal City...
Reagan National Airport...
Howard University...
nationals park...
US Capitol...
downtown Washington...
Fort Totten...
gallaudet University...
Anacostia...
rfk stadium...

This is a dangerous storm. If you are in its path... prepare
immediately for damaging wind gusts... large hail and frequent cloud
to ground lightning. Move indoors to a sturdy building and stay away
from windows.

This storm is producing frequent cloud to ground lightning. If you
can hear thunder... you are close enough to be struck by lightning.
Move indoors immediately.

Lat... Lon 3872 7680 3881 7708 3883 7711 3892 7712
3895 7708 3900 7677
time... Mot... loc 0348z 277deg 8kt 3887 7706


Jrk


GAStormz washingtonian115 it's coming your way!!!

1590. hydrus
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


andrew?
camille?

now im out.
i think
The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. The hurricane was down played in effort to keep the area booming..There efforts failed miserably. The average 24 hour wind speed exceeded 76 mph.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
GAStormz washingtonian115 it's coming your way!!!>


nope, its hanging out just to my north and putting on a lightning show.
my hotel is just north of alexandria, or in it.

this lightning and thunder is keeping me up, im really tired , its midnight.

The thunder sounds so hollow though.



A few cool images of Emilia to end the night for me. Heavy convection really wrapping around the center and is transforming into a hurricane as we read/post. Can't wait to see how strong it is in the morning. I've got a special China corp learning event every morning for the next 2 weeks so(in my city) so I have to get up early and get more sleep. Nite all!
The cell that just blew up over Rosslyn, VA was loud as heck with lightning. Was gonna go to bed till I heard the ruckus. Night everyone.
T.C.F.W
R.I.FLAG FLAG
05E/XH/E/C1
MARK
11.15N/108.2W
1596. hydrus
Neither one looks like an 85 mph hurricane. They listed Ione with top winds of 115..hhhhaaaaa!
Quoting hydrus:
The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. The hurricane was down played in effort to keep the area booming..There efforts failed miserably. The average 24 hour wind speed exceeded 76 mph.


Wait, I got it! It is the....*drum rolls* THE GREAT MIAMI HURRICANE OF 1926! Ta-Da!
Deleted
1599. hydrus
Quoting Astrometeor:


Wait, I got it! It is the....*drum rolls* THE GREAT MIAMI HURRICANE OF 1926! Ta-Da!
No.! it was Bonnie dude..jk...really..jk :)
Link

Microwave image shows Emilia is building an eyewall nicely.
Just went back and browsed through some NHC archives.. didn't realize that 2003 was their first time with the 5-day intensity/track forecasts. Prior to that it was just out to 72 hours. Wonder how long it'll be until they're able to do a full seven days...
1602. hydrus
I see moistah..
Quoting hydrus:
The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. The hurricane was down played in effort to keep the area booming..There efforts failed miserably. The average 24 hour wind speed exceeded 76 mph.


How bad would the same hurricane affect Miami today?
ok one last thing,
satellite of june 29 derecho:


Would be better then an Izquierdo...
Quoting hydrus:
1943 off the coast of Texas.


Believe it or not that is known as the Surprise Hurricane and not Humberto. Pretty interesting article on the storm here.

Censorship Of Weather Information
The news of this hurricane was heavily censored by the government due to national security. The loss of production of war materials couldn't be found out by the Axis Powers. This was 1943 and the tides in both the Atlantic and Pacific theaters of war were finally starting to turn. There was a report that the FBI shut down the telegraph office in La Porte because someone had sent a telegram out of the state informing someone of the damages from the hurricane. The only news of the hurricane was published in the two states that were affected, Texas and Louisiana. After this hurricane, never again were advisories censored from the public. War or no war, the risk to human life is too great. This was a lesson learned.


THE 1943 "SURPRISE" HURRICANE©
Lew Fincher
Hurricane Consulting, Inc.
Bill Read
Houston/Galveston Area National Weather Service Office




Thanks AtHome, I scrolled through the article but I would like to read it at a later date. It's funny, but I never heard my parents, or grand parents talk about this storm and they lived on Galveston Island at that time. They are all deceased now, but I might try to quiz some old timers around town to see if they can recall anything.
Thanks again for that article AtHome. I'm off to bed now. Good night.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nice Pic TA
Quoting hydrus:

Gordon Dunn (1965–1967)
Robert Simpson (1967–1973), co-creator of the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale.
Neil Frank (1973–1987), responsible for creating strong ties between NHC and the media while director.
Bob Sheets (1987–1995)
Bob Burpee (1995–1997)
Jerry Jarrell (1998–2000)
Britt Max Mayfield (2000–2007)
Xavier William Proenza (2007)
Edward (Ed) N. Rappaport (2007–2008)
Bill Read (2008–2012)
Richard Knabb (2012-)


I think outta all them my favorites are

Max Mayfield

Bob Sheets

Neil Frank
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Thanks again for that article AtHome. I'm off to bed now. Good night.


Oh you're welcome. Yes it is a lengthy article. I had heard about the storm before but didn't know as many details. That was a little before my parents' time and my family's from farther up the coast so they never mentioned it either. They've talked about Audrey and Carla. There have been quite a few over the years for sure.
Deleted
Deleted
Holy **** I got woken up by a storm just in time to see lightning hit a tree less than a mile away!!!! Wow that was a slightly scary one!


Very Soon Now
Quoting KoritheMan:
Here's a late night blog from me to you.


Is that a song?
wow, we even have some real decent storms headed here to seattle from the south. these may not seem like much but these actually are some great looking cells for western washington. good thing i work in the evening tomorrow..
GoodNight All, esta manana!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Is that a song?


Yes.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Here's a late night blog from me to you.
thanks for the blog Kori.
Well it looks as if the 0Z Euro has pre Ernesto in the Central Atlantic in 10 days. Folks I would really be worried if I lived in FL with the position of this Bermuda High.


A downright dangerous position of the Bermuda high on both the Euro and GFS. Time to get hurricane ready if live in hurricane prone areas of the us as we may have one coming our way in 10 days.
1625. LilyZ
Very interesting!


I never post this early in the morning but this is concerning! I smell a 2004 set up happening here.

0Z GFS
Notice the MJO near Africa now. This has been absent all hurricane season so far. You can see the Cape Verde season is about to kick into gear.


The scary thing is there is nothing in the way to stop these systems from developing into powerful systems all the way to the US Coast as shear and dry air are absent right now.

Emilia strength into the 4 hurricane of the season.expect it to strength.
Hurricane EMILIA Forecast Discussion

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 090857
TCDEP5

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012

THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND
A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED. A 09/0330 UTC
SSMIS OVERPASS ALSO INDICATED A LOW- AND MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAD
DEVELOPED. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND A CONSENSUS T4.0/65 KT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB...EMILIA HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS ON THIS ADVISORY.

TRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WOBBLES IN THE CONVENTIONAL AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS YIELDS AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/10 KT. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE HURRICANE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36-48 HOURS...BUT THEN
DIVERGES AFTER THAT WITH THE UKMET TAKING EMILIA DUE WEST AND THE
GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKING THE HURRICANE MORE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS NOW SHIFTED FROM SOUTH OF
TO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE
DISTINCT NORTHWARD-BIAS OF THE GFS MODEL WITH HURRICANE DANIEL...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION AND
IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TV15.

BASED ON THE TIGHT INNER CORE NOTED IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS...RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS AND FSSE/FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...WHICH ARE FORECASTING AN INCREASE OF 32 KT
AND 33 KT...RESPECTIVELY...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15
KT...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO LEVEL OFF THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS UNTIL
EMILIA REACHES COOLER WATERS BY ABOUT 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...
THE COMBINATION OF THE COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSE FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSSE
INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 11.9N 109.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 12.4N 110.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 13.0N 113.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 13.5N 114.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 13.9N 116.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 14.6N 120.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 15.4N 124.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 16.4N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
1630. LargoFl
1631. LargoFl
..................looks like the Tampa Bay area is going to be getting some rain this week..maybe,some very light sprinkles out there by me right now,not enough to wet the sidewalk
Good morning. Emilia is well on her way to becoming a major hurricane...



Latest SHIPS RI probabilities...

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.8 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 52% is 7.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 49% is 8.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 49% is 17.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%)
1633. LargoFl
1634. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTH...FROM HERNANDO COUNTY
NORTHWARD...AND IN THE FAR SOUTH...IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES.
LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION STRONG GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.
1635. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:


Hi Largo,

You got a link for that satellite image?
Derived from the 9July6amGMT (NHC) ATCF data for HurricaneDaniel:
Its vector had held steady at 14.5mph(23.3km/h) West
MaxSusWinds had decreased from 85knots(98mph)157km/h to 80knots(92mph)148km/h
And minimum pressure had increased from 973millibars to 977millibars

For those who like to visually track H.Daniel's path...
HI25 is Naalehu :: SAN is SanDiego

Easternmost dot on the connected line-segments is where TS.Daniel became H.Daniel
Easternmost dot on the longest line is H.Daniel's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through H.Daniel's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to Hawaii.
8July12pmGMT: H.Daniel had been headed toward passing 127miles(204kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Lone unconnected dot north of the straightline projection)
8July6pmGMT: H.Daniel had been headed toward passing 411miles(661kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Lone unconnected dot south of the straightline projection)
9July12amGMT: H.Daniel had been headed toward passing 245miles(394kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Bottom half of the blob)
9July6amGMT: H.Daniel had been headed toward passing 233miles(375kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Top half of the blob) in ~5days6hours from now

Copy&paste 9n161w, hi25, 17.064n155.643w, 12.995n154.839w, 15.358n155.441w ,san, 14.4n116.5w-14.5n117.5w, 14.5n117.5w-14.6n118.6w, 14.6n118.6w-14.7n119.6w, 14.7n119.6w-14.8n120.7w, 14.8n120.7w-14.9n121.7w, 14.9n121.7w-15.1n123.1w, 15.1n123.1w-15.1n124.4w, 15.1n124.4w-15.2n125.7w, 15.2n125.7w-15.3n127.0w, 15.2n125.7w-15.527n155.471w, 18.911n155.681w-15.527n155.471w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison
1601 HurrikanEB: Just went back and browsed through some NHC archives.. didn't realize that 2003 was their first time with the 5-day intensity/track forecasts. Prior to that it was just out to 72 hours. Wonder how long it'll be until they're able to do a full seven days...

I wonder how long it'll be before they can do 72hours
Quoting StormTracker2K:
The scary thing is there is nothing in the way to stop these systems from developing into powerful systems all the way to the US Coast as shear and dry air are absent right now.



wouldnt say no dry air, the band of moisture is thin and goes to S America, it will have to lift north to aid in development.
If it does, it will bring shear with it, just as with 97L.



09/0600 UTC 12.0N 109.0W T4.0/4.0 EMILIA -- East Pacific
She is finally a hurricane and looking beautiful.
EMILIA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...NO THREAT TO LAND...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

2:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 9
Location: 11.9°N 109.3°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

Quoting RussianWinter:


How bad would the same hurricane affect Miami today?


It would be a nightmare both in terms of loss of life and property and impact on the economy. According to the catastrophe modeling firms 1926 recurrence would result in insured loss estimates around $125 Billion, total economic losses would be multiples of this.
S FL!:)
T-storms
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Wow big rain coming!!:)
1645. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow big rain coming!!:)
..Gee..we in pinellas just had a whopper of a thunderstorm just now, lots of wind, boomers and heavy rain..its heading for indian rocks beach now,get ready down there..its a boomer
1646. LargoFl
......................must be a foggy time down there or else its a heavy rain
1650. LargoFl
1651. LargoFl
Looks like north carolina is going to cool off this afternoon..................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN CAUSING MINOR FLOODING. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
1653. LargoFl
1654. LargoFl
Good morning, all. Woke up and put the dogs out to a nice drizzle. Love a good steady light rain for the garden. Off to a begin a three day workshop.
Picked up 2.54" of rain yesterday from an intense late afternoon thunderstorm that produced some very intense lightning. For the month I'm at 4.14" for the month.

Here's some hail video from this storm 2 miles west of me.
Link
1658. NSB207
What has happened to the usual afternoon showers in East Central Florida?

NOAA prediction is for a wetter than normal period, but nada!
Hurricane EMILIA
Quoting NSB207:
What has happened to the usual afternoon showers in East Central Florida?

NOAA prediction is for a wetter than normal period, but nada!


I'm NW of Orlando and I got rain nearly everyday last week but I see what you mean as coastal Volusia and then back down into Orlando itself and there has hardly been any rain while 15 miles NW of Orlando we have been getting hammered. Weird! Hopefully this week will bring rain areawide.
1662. icmoore
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I never post this early in the morning but this is concerning! I smell a 2004 set up happening here.

0Z GFS


Good morning and NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!! :) Already had a nice sun shower with some thunder this morning.
Good morning. Hopefully,any of our friends here got disconnected by that thing that is occuring today with the PC's. I am here so nothing happened on this end.

Wow,Emilia is doing the RI bigtime now.My peak intensity is 125kts.
1665. icmoore
This is a link to the Beach Beacon and an article about the damage that Debby did to the beaches here. I really hope the area is spared in the near future...

Link
Quoting StormTracker2K:
i see el nino has not been strenghthining.
Quoting floridaboy14:
i see el nino has not been strenghthining.


Looks like the same as last week.
COMPARE MAPS JUN 9 2012 JUL 9 2012 LOOKS LIKE COOLING TO ME BUT MAYBE A ROCKET SCIENTIST CAN CONFIRM THIS


1669. MahFL
At home we lost internet 6 pm Saturday, and it's not back on yet, from an intense thunderstorm. We actually had 2 sparks near our kitchen ceiling, from 2 differet blts of lightning, although none of the kitchen appliences were damaged. Good news Comcast are coming out today to try fix it.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
COMPARE MAPS JUN 9 2012 JUL 9 2012 LOOKS LIKE COOLING TO ME BUT MAYBE A ROCKET SCIENTIST CAN CONFIRM THIS




Remember Keeper it's winter in the Southern Hemisphere so you would expect to see SST's cool this time of year but as an average they are running 1 to 2 degrees above average near S America.
1671. MahFL
Quoting StormTracker2K:
The scary thing is there is nothing in the way to stop these systems from developing into powerful systems all the way to the US Coast as shear and dry air are absent right now.



What are you on about ?, there is 40 kts of shear in the middle of the Atlantic.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
COMPARE MAPS JUN 9 2012 JUL 9 2012 LOOKS LIKE COOLING TO ME BUT MAYBE A ROCKET SCIENTIST CAN CONFIRM THIS


yeah slight cooling. i wonder why. last year we were supposed to be neutral and out of nowhere la nina formed
Good Morning Folks. Here is the am discussion from the NCEP Caribbean desk..............All clear.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
720 AM EDT MON JUL 09 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO/USVI: TUTT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC ALONG 25N...WHILE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND THE EASTERN ANTILLES. AT MID-LEVELS...RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE REGION WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ESTABLISHED AT 700-750 HPA AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE ORDER OF 40-45MM. DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE LOW LEVELS...AND ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT QUIET PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING COMING DAYS.
..AS INFLUENCE OF RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DOMINATE. EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST DECREASING IN SPEED BY 72 HRS. IN THE
MEAN TIME...MODELS AGREE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE CYCLE. EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ORDER OF 00-05MM/DAY
AND LOCAL MAXIMA OF 10-15MM/DAY. THE CHANCE OF LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WESTERN TIER OF PUERTO RICO AS DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER MOUNTAIN RANGES IS ADVECTED WESTWARD.

MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)



As for the tropical Atlantic, the ITCZ looks pretty healthy but has dropped back down below 10N.........Still a few weeks before we get to that magical line above 10 but we have had a few stragglers recently above 10N that have not developed. The current waves are E-Pac bound.

Quoting floridaboy14:
yeah slight cooling. i wonder why. last year we were supposed to be neutral and out of nowhere la nina formed




its winter in the Southern Hemisphere
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning Folks. Here is the am discussion from the NCEP Caribbean desk..............All clear.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
720 AM EDT MON JUL 09 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO/USVI: TUTT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC ALONG 25N...WHILE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND THE EASTERN ANTILLES. AT MID-LEVELS...RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE REGION WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ESTABLISHED AT 700-750 HPA AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT.
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE ORDER OF 40-45MM. DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE LOW LEVELS...AND ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT QUIET PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING COMING DAYS.
..AS INFLUENCE OF RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DOMINATE. EASTERLY TRADES WILL PERSIST DECREASING IN SPEED BY 72 HRS. IN THE
MEAN TIME...MODELS AGREE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE CYCLE. EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ORDER OF 00-05MM/DAY
AND LOCAL MAXIMA OF 10-15MM/DAY. THE CHANCE OF LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THE WESTERN TIER OF PUERTO RICO AS DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER MOUNTAIN RANGES IS ADVECTED WESTWARD.

MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)



As for the tropical Atlantic, the ITCZ looks pretty healthy but has dropped back down below 10N.........Still a few weeks before we get to that magical line above 10 but we have had a few stragglers recently above 10N that have not developed. The current waves are E-Pac bound.



Euro is showing a storm next week from one of these waves rolling off Africa. This one could be douzy and it's this one the US really needs to watch!


Quoting Tazmanian:




its winter in the Southern Hemisphere
its not the southern hemisphere its the tropical pacific region and if you look you can see tha cooling right on the 0 degree mark west ward winter does not matter its the tropical region there is cooling occuring looks like neutral it will be
Here's the low off Africa that the Euro developes and notice all the lows over Africa. So you can really tell things are about to go crazy in the tropics over the next few weeks so enjoy the quiet time now as things will change fast come next week.

1675. StormTracker2K 8:45 AM EDT on July 09, 201

Good Morning. I say this respectfully as you were real bullish on that same model last week which was showing the wave moving into the Gulf near Florida with possible development; it never happened.

Better to wait a until model consensus from several models before jumping on this one IMHO.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Here's the low off Africa that the Euro developes and notice all the lows over Africa. So you can really tell things are about to go crazy in the tropics over the next few weeks so enjoy the quiet time now as things will change fast come next week.




nah...
Both the EUROand GFS are showing a low pressure area in the EATL by wednesday next week
GEOS-5 is showing a possible invest in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday..


Keeps it weak & moves it into Southern Mississippi/Southern Alabama Friday & Saturday..
with the MJO beginning to set up off the coast of Afica, this could be the start of the cape verde season
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
1675. StormTracker2K 8:45 AM EDT on July 09, 201

Good Morning. I say this respectfully as you were real bullish on that same model last week which was showing the wave moving into the Gulf near Florida with possible development; it never happened.

Better to wait a until model consensus from several models before jumping on this one IMHO.



GFS has it too and by the way I wasn't bullish as I was just stating that we could have something as the Gulf is hot right now. Whether people like it or not the Cape Verde season is showing signs that it may start to get going. The position of this Bermuda High has me on edge. We can only hope that a trough sets up over the eastern US over the next 2 weeks.
Quoting Skyepony:
GEOS-5 is showing a possible invest in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday..


Keeps it weak & moves it into Southern Mississippi/Southern Alabama Friday & Saturday..


and it also has an open wave off the coast.
I dont trust that model to forecast sunshine....
as i said the pacific activity will continue to pick up and the atlantic is going down the tubes...el nino is here and it doesnt sit well with the atlantic hurricane season....i really doubt if we get a storm in july or even august....i think we are going to have to wait for the fronts to come down and something form on the front....no this hurricane season for 2012 is in the dumpster.....el nino came out to early i think it even surprised the NHC....
Mariner’s Guide For Hurricane Awareness In
The North Atlantic Basin

Each year, an average of ten tropical storms develop over the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and
Gulf of Mexico. Of these ten storms, six typically develop into hurricanes.

Each hurricane season approximately 60 of these waves cross the tropical North Atlantic. Although the majority of these waves pass through the basin without any significant tropical cyclone development, passage of these waves is often accompanied by squally
weather with brief periods of higher sustained winds.
Quoting Skyepony:
GEOS-5 is showing a possible invest in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday..


Keeps it weak & moves it into Southern Mississippi/Southern Alabama Friday & Saturday..


Yeah the gulf is one to watch this week with a trough setting up over the SE US. That is what the Euro was showing last week.
Emilia is a cat 2 per 12z Best track.

EP, 05, 2012070912, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1094W, 85, 977, HU

Link
Quoting stoormfury:
with the MJO beginning to set up off the coast of Afica, this could be the start of the cape verde season


Yup look near Africa. This could be why the models are jumping on a Cape Verde system developing over the next 7 to 10 days.

Quoting ernesto2012:
as i said the pacific activity will continue to pick up and the atlantic is going down the tubes...el nino is here and it doesnt sit well with the atlantic hurricane season....i really doubt if we get a storm in july or even august....i think we are going to have to wait for the fronts to come down and something form on the front....no this hurricane season for 2012 is in the dumpster.....el nino came out to early i think it even surprised the NHC....
all right wise guy i hope you are around when a killer storm slams into a populated area so you can tell them not to worry no cane season this year
El-Nino or not the shear across the Atlantic Basin is really low for this being El-Nino.
even the gulf ssts are cooled down from last year...anything forms in the gulf will be nothing to get excited about...
Quoting StormTracker2K:
El-Nino or not the shear across the Atlantic Basin is really low for this being El-Nino.
40 knots in mid-Atlantic isn't low.
1694. ncstorm
Quoting StormTracker2K:


GFS has it too and by the way I wasn't bullish as I was just stating that we could have something as the Gulf is hot right now. Whether people like it or not the Cape Verde season is showing signs that it may start to get going. The position of this Bermuda High has me on edge. We can only hope that a trough sets up over the eastern US over the next 2 weeks.


Yesterday I posted the Euro where it had several vorticities in the GOM as well as on the east coast..
Today's run


Quoting ernesto2012:
even the gulf ssts are cooled down from last year...anything forms in the gulf will be nothing to get excited about...


where do u see the cooling from last year to this year

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Emilia is a cat 2 per 12z Best track.

EP, 05, 2012070912, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1094W, 85, 977, HU

Link


85 Knots = 97.81 MPH

Emilia is already Category 2... I wonders how strong she will be.
Quoting ernesto2012:
as i said the pacific activity will continue to pick up and the atlantic is going down the tubes...el nino is here and it doesnt sit well with the atlantic hurricane season....i really doubt if we get a storm in july or even august....i think we are going to have to wait for the fronts to come down and something form on the front....no this hurricane season for 2012 is in the dumpster.....el nino came out to early i think it even surprised the NHC....
upwelling.in.the.epac.atlantics.turn.is.coming
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


and it also has an open wave off the coast.
I dont trust that model to forecast sunshine....


GEOS-5 picked up all the storms to develop this year first or close to it, along with two that didn't. It's been 50/50 on where the ones that formed went. So it was unwavering wrong about Debbie going to TX.. It's a model, I wouldn't "trust" any of them.

That wave maybe interesting to watch once closer to FL. Hopefully brings me rain. Models so far suggest it will be moving too fast & facing too much shear from the SW to pull it together.
1699. bappit
Quoting StormTracker2K:
El-Nino or not the shear across the Atlantic Basin is really low for this being El-Nino.

That comment does not really make sense.
Quoting Bluestorm5:


85 Knots = 97.81 MPH

Emilia is already Category 2... I wonders how strong she will be.
she will make it to cat 4 be a three after sunset today maybe
1701. ncstorm
HPC Precip Map


SPC Severe Weather Map
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
all right wise guy i hope you are around when a killer storm slams into a populated area so you can tell them not to worry no cane season this year



first of all im a female and if you cant read between the lines then you are not doing your homework...i only hope you dont run and hide when nothing significant develops....i doubt we will have a chance of anything forming until the cool fronts come down...all the dry air in the atlantic plus the strong wind shear will never let anything develop....we lucky if we see the g storm this yeat...the pacific will run the table...
Good Morning To All From America's Left Coast
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Although all the signs are here for arrival of an El Nino event the warm sst off south america and the slow increase in temperature in the central pacific has not been reflected in the in the pacific to herald the rapid onset of an el nino event. it apperas that the 2012 el nino will be a weak one and will not have too much of a adverse effect on the atlantic hurricane season this year. what will affect the numbers are the cooler than normal sst and the rather dry and stable upper levels in the MDR
1706. Gearsts
Quoting StormTracker2K:


GFS has it too and by the way I wasn't bullish as I was just stating that we could have something as the Gulf is hot right now. Whether people like it or not the Cape Verde season is showing signs that it may start to get going. The position of this Bermuda High has me on edge. We can only hope that a trough sets up over the eastern US over the next 2 weeks.
You should wait cause 10days out is long range for the models and it will change. Also yes the cape verde season should be starting as it always does by this time of the year you are saying FL should watch the low in the gfs and euro but again is just way too early and conditions still suck in the MDR.
Quoting Skyepony:


GEOS-5 picked up all the storms to develop this year first or close to it, along with two that didn't. It's been 50/50 on where the ones that formed went. So it was unwavering wrong about Debbie going to TX.. It's a model, I wouldn't "trust" any of them.

That wave maybe interesting to watch once closer to FL. Hopefully brings me rain. Models so far suggest it will be moving too fast & facing too much shear from the SW to pull it together.


my distrust of it has nothing to do with debby, but we will see