WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Hawaii braces for Felicia; 99L near the Cape Verdes Islands may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:55 PM GMT on August 10, 2009

A strong tropical wave (99L) is just south of the Cape Verdes Islands, 800 miles off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a nearly closed surface circulation, stretched out along one axis. The satellite saw winds of up to 45 mph in a band of heavy thunderstorms well south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The islands have seen winds of only 10 - 15 mph and some occasional rain showers thus far from the disturbance. Heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 99L died down this morning, but appears to be making a comeback late this morning. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures are moderately warm, about 27 - 28°C. There is a large area of dry air to 99L's north that is interfering with the storm's organization, though.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of disturbance 99L.

Wind shear is expected to be moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Wednesday. SSTs will remain relatively constant at 27°C, but the dry, stable air of the Saharan AIr Layer (SAL) to 99L's north will be problem for it. NHC has given 99L a moderate (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Most of the models show some weak development, but none of them predict 99L will become a hurricane. It is too early to say if 99L will recurve north of the Lesser Antilles Islands or not, since it will be at least 5 days before the storm makes it that far. It is unusual, though, for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands.

The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the possible development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia has weakened steadily over the past 24 hours, thanks to cool sea surface temperatures and increasing shear. Recent satellite loops show that strong upper-level winds from the west have pushed the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds. Felicia's relatively meager heavy thunderstorm activity is steadily moving away from the center of the storm.


Figure 2. History of hurricane activity over Hawaii since 1950. Hawaii islands have been hit by only 9 tropical cyclones of tropical depression or greater strength, with 4 others passing withing 75 miles of an island. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia are 25°C, well below the 26°C threshold typically needed to sustain a hurricane. SSTs will slowly increase to 26°C by Tuesday. Wind shear has increased to a high 30 knots, and is expected to increase further to 40 knots by Tuesday. The high shear combined with the cool SSTs should continue to weaken Felicia today. I give a 30% chance that the shear will completely rip away Felicia's heavy thunderstorm activity by the time the storm reaches Hawaii, leaving only a swirl of low-level clouds that will not cause significant flooding problems. The wind speed probabilities forecast shows about a 25% chance Felicia will still be a weak tropical storm at 3 am Hawaiian time Tuesday morning, and a 15% chance the storm will have dissipated. If Felicia does hold together that long, it would be only the tenth tropical cyclone of tropical depression or higher strength to affect the islands since 1950 (Figure 2). Large swells from Felicia are already affecting the Big Island, and a high surf warning has been posted for east-facing shores of the Big Island and other Hawaiian islands. Felicia or its remnants may bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and mud slides to the islands beginning this afternoon, and a Flash Flood Watch has been posted for most of the islands.

Links to follow:
Long range radar from the Big Island
Wundermap for Hawaii

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

3001. Relix
I wrote off 99L...

This morning on the radio I heard the meteorologist: TD #02. Immediately hoped to WU. She said the 52W wave is looking dangerous. TD 02 will miss the island and she mentioned the mega ultra powerful future Bill which would pass south of PR. Of course... just models and this will all surely vary.
Thanks 456, the nhc is not giving much to this disturbance, but looking at what i saw with the wave at 61W yesterday i am not ruling outthe same scenario with this 51W disturbance. the rea is ripe for quick organisation
3003. palmpt
Quoting stormsurge39:
GFS 36 hours ago had Bill going in the gulf towards Al. Then yesterday it had it barely scraping east coast of Fl. and then cutting back NE. Now it has it more to the left. It will change many times.
More than a week into August and we are just now watching the model dance... that is the frustrating part of hurricane season, watching the very dynamic atmospheric conditions change... and the modelas adjust. But one thing is for sure, if a storm makes it into the GOM, watch out. I do feel a lot of people are looking the other way. Like Forrest Gump, this season may jump up and bite a few folks on the buttocks. Let's hope not. I believe we are in for one hell of a season before it is over.
3004. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:


Interesting...maybe it does make it into the GOM.


I believe that is the wave currently @50W being represented there.
What are the chances of the GFDL, GFS and ECMWF showing an agressive system in the MDR later this week.

I expect this from the CMC and occasionally the GFS but three trusted models? That system behind TD 2 is the one to watch.
3006. IKE
Quoting Weather456:


Look at this loop. it appears to be another system that is near FL, not so much Td 2.


That's what I was thinking....the wave near 50W makes it into the GOM. Not TD2(for now).

That GFDL map he posted was at 114 hours...4 1/2 days...seems about right for the wave near 50W.
Quoting WxLogic:


I believe that is the wave currently @50W being represented there.


Yes, it is. TD2 has a greater chance of going out to sea.
Quoting Portlight Strategies, Inc.




Brian, your donation for $20 is now complete
Payment by PayPal
Confirmation number: 88XXXXXXXXXX711.
An email with your donation details has been sent to ozmanXXXXXX@yahoo.com and you
can print your donation receipt.



That was too easy! :)

Check out how easy it is to donate a buck at
http://www.Portlight.org


3009. IKE
Quoting WxLogic:


I believe that is the wave currently @50W being represented there.


Agree.
one yr almost a hundred yrs ago s fl. got hit by three cyclones from the east one of them was a rare oct hit
Quoting IKE:


That's what I was thinking....the wave near 50W makes it into the GOM. Not TD2(for now).

That GFDL map he posted was at 114 hours...4 1/2 days...seems about right for the wave near 50W.


Yea, I'm not so much ruling out 50W but still give it a low chance in the time being.
I was up till 3 AM doing pre-school work and I am shocked that they upgraded it...
Quoting Weather456:


Look at this loop. it appears to be another system that is near FL, not so much Td 2.


Looks like something associated with the wave in the C-ATL, the timing would agree anyway. It's hard to pick out the instigator on that run.
Interesting...maybe it does make it into the GOM.

At this point it MAY make it to anywhere E of Brownsville...Long way to go and a lot of wait and see...
3015. P451
21 hour loop ending 10Z

TD 2 pushing into dry air blazing a path for the african wave?

Quoting IKE:


That's what I was thinking....the wave near 50W makes it into the GOM. Not TD2(for now).

That GFDL map he posted was at 114 hours...4 1/2 days...seems about right for the wave near 50W.


Do need to be careful on the GFDL run, the system near South Florida is at the very edge of the GFDL domain, and my past experience is the steering at the end of the model run may not be that accurate. Agree, that would be the system currently ~51W.
Quoting CycloneOz:


I made a Portlight.org donation a week ago. It's fast, easy...and there's no minimum. Plus, the Portlight staff and volunteers make a real impact on helping others in times of great chaos...extremely stressful situations that people are suddenly thrust into.

If you're going to support a charity...THIS is the one!

I'm going to go donate another 20-spot right now... :)



A million thanks, Oz!!! And a million thanks to everyone!! We're all part of something really good...
3018. palmpt
If 50W makes it into the Gulf, aren't conditions prime for rapid intensification?
Wind field map

Quoting weathersp:
I was up till 3 AM doing pre-school work and I am shocked that they upgraded it...


So am I but run a visible loop. There is no way you cant classify a spin like that.
Quoting Weather456:
What are the chances of the GFDL, GFS and ECMWF showing an agressive system in the MDR later this week.

I expect this from the CMC and occasionally the GFS but three trusted models? That system behind TD 2 is the one to watch.


I agree. Conditions will be pristine behind TD2, especially if it comes off lower.
3022. cg2916
Quoting palmpt:
If 50W makes it into the Gulf, aren't conditions prime for rapid intensification?

Pretty much. VERY hot waters, low shear. We better hope that if the models are right and this thing hits Florida, it doesn't cross into the GOM.
Quoting futuremet:
Wind field map



Well, there it is! "Son of Andrew" 17 years to the day!

OUCH!
3024. IKE
Quoting palmpt:
If 50W makes it into the Gulf, aren't conditions prime for rapid intensification?


That's a tough question.

It may not amount to anything with that wave but some rain, but, it could be more.

Quoting palmpt:
If 50W makes it into the Gulf, aren't conditions prime for rapid intensification?


Yea....



I still think TD 2 will turn out to sea by 55w.
Currently the wave has an area of 850 vort that is located just on the coast still. Once it moves off the NHC should begin to mention it and declare it an invest tomorrow. Once this gets off on to open waters I expect slow-gradual development due to little to no inhibiting factors but itself. It should gradually organize into a TS south of the Verdes. Track through the CATL reminds me of Dean. If the GFS is right, so does the strength near the islands.

Quoting CycloneOz:


Well, there it is! "Son of Andrew" 17 years to the day!

OUCH!


Teenagers...what can you do with 'em but ride 'em out...
Why does TD 2 and invest 99 looks to be in the same exact area. Am I seeing this wrong or are the one in the same. I am a bit puzzled
3030. P451
TD2 short visible loop ending 11Z

3031. cg2916
Quoting tomas5tex:
Why does TD 2 and invest 99 looks to be in the same exact area. Am I seeing this wrong or are the one in the same. I am a bit puzzled

Because Invest 99L became TD Two.
Quoting tomas5tex:
Why does TD 2 and invest 99 looks to be in the same exact area. Am I seeing this wrong or are the one in the same. I am a bit puzzled


The WU maps havent updated. Give it time.

99L has been upgraded to TD2
what millimars does that show over s fl ike? i got my glasses on still can not see how many circles are there. afraid to hit any links even though im on my wifes mac my son fixed my notebk said there were 16 viruss on it pig flu
3035. IKE
From Tampa,FL....

"LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED TIME PERIODS AND A
BLEND WAS UTILIZED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE
GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN DURING THIS TIME ALOFT WILL FEATURE A
MOVEMENT OF THE H5 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. INITIALLY THIS RIDGE STARTS
OUT IN A POSITION WELL OFF SHORE ROUGHLY OVER BERMUDA. THE RIDGE
WILL THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO A POSITION OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN BY
MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAVE FLORIDA IN A DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND
OPEN THE AREA TO FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED OVER
THE WEEKEND. GFS PWAT VALUES RISE SHARPLY ON SATURDAY TO VALUES OF
AS HIGH AS 2.3 INCHES. THIS INCREASED TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THE
PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED VORT MAX ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE H5 RIDGE...HAS LEAD TO THE INCREASING
OF POPS ON SATURDAY TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. PRESENCE OF ORGANIZED
LIFT AND GOOD MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS INCREASE IN POPS WAS THE BIGGEST CHANGE. IT
ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASED SKY COVER AND A SUBSEQUENT SLIGHT
LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES. NEWEST MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE
THOUGHT PROCESS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY."
3036. java162
Quoting tomas5tex:
Why does TD 2 and invest 99 looks to be in the same exact area. Am I seeing this wrong or are the one in the same. I am a bit puzzled


invest 99 was upgraded to a tropical depression.. so there is no invest99 anymore
Quoting tomas5tex:
Why does TD 2 and invest 99 looks to be in the same exact area. Am I seeing this wrong or are the one in the same. I am a bit puzzled


Invest-TD-TS-H-MH

Invest 99L was upgraded to TD 2 but some websites will be slow to update the information.
3039. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
what millimars does that show over s fl ike? i got my glasses on still can see how many circles are there.


I can't see it with my glasses on either.

Looks like a significant cane.
3040. WAHA

Has a long way to go
Quoting Weather456:


Invest-TD-TS-H-MH

Invest 99L was upgraded to TD 2 but some websites will be slow to update the information.




Thanks
Quoting IKE:


I can't see it with my glasses on either.

Looks like a significant cane.


Yeah, with that many closed Isobars, who cares, just run, lol.
good morning I knew it I knew it we have TD2 I do not think it will turn out I think the northern caribbean should keep a eye on it
G'morn all. This blog is gonna explode today!
Dr. Masters will prolly update soon.
3045. IKE
The vis floater looks impressive for Td 2. But It's my opinion its being affected by a bit of dry air.
'morning Doug!

Wanna climb aboard the XtremeMachine on Friday, August 21 if I'm passin' through P'cola on my way to S. FL?
i have a bad feeling about 99L I DO NOT SEE THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO GOING OUT TO SEA AT ALL. the new models are going more west now.
Good Morning!

I see the tropics are waking up too (after many false starts).
50w and 60w might meet up in the gulf wouldnt that be something great day
3052. P451
TD 2, rainbow 2.5hr loop, ending 1115Z



TD 2, visible 3hr loop, ending 1115Z



3053. ncstorm
Good Morning,

I have a question in regards to the model on TD2, WU has several model runs on it but there isnt a GFS model run listed for it..does that mean the GFS still dosent see or recognize this system and if so, why? Many thanks in advance.
Wow TD2 is set to become Ana according to the NHC.
Wow...

Most of the models have initialized TD2 in the wrong spot. Also look at the XTRP. Due west. Models show NW.
Good morning all. What's the consensus, does 99L develop or is it just paving the way for the one behind it?

Ike, at the end of that model run you linked, the system that's affecting S Fla was the one mentioned by Tally and NoLa in their long range forecasts correct?

what about the one we were watching east of Barbados?

Whoa there Keeper. Super stretch.
3059. Makoto1
Quoting IKE:


I can't see it with my glasses on either.

Looks like a significant cane.


Looks like 984 mb to me...
283

WHXX01 KWBC 110920

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0920 UTC TUE AUG 11 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE TWO (AL022009) 20090811 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090811 0600 090811 1800 090812 0600 090812 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.4N 27.9W 15.2N 29.9W 15.5N 32.2W 16.1N 34.9W

BAMD 14.4N 27.9W 15.2N 29.2W 15.8N 31.0W 16.5N 33.5W

BAMM 14.4N 27.9W 15.5N 29.4W 16.2N 31.3W 17.1N 33.8W

LBAR 14.4N 27.9W 14.9N 29.7W 15.7N 31.9W 16.8N 34.5W

SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 34KTS

DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 34KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090813 0600 090814 0600 090815 0600 090816 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.6N 37.7W 18.6N 44.4W 20.8N 50.7W 23.2N 56.2W

BAMD 17.3N 36.3W 20.6N 41.3W 24.9N 42.2W 27.2N 39.2W

BAMM 17.9N 36.6W 21.0N 42.2W 24.1N 45.2W 25.7N 45.2W

LBAR 17.7N 37.1W 20.6N 41.7W 25.2N 44.0W 29.8N 41.8W

SHIP 38KTS 39KTS 29KTS 19KTS

DSHP 38KTS 39KTS 29KTS 19KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 27.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 25.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 24.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
wave at 52w has a perfect anticyclone over it.i would not be surprised to see it go up rapidly thu out today.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wow...

Most of the models have initialized TD2 in the wrong spot. Also look at the XTRP. Due west. Models show NW.


Explains why the NHC is south of the consensus.
Quoting CaneWarning:
Wow TD2 is set to become Ana according to the NHC.


Not quite.

Penetrated by dry air.
3064. IKE
Quoting BobinTampa:
Good morning all. What's the consensus, does 99L develop or is it just paving the way for the one behind it?

Ike, at the end of that model run you linked, the system that's affecting S Fla was the one mentioned by Tally and NoLa in their long range forecasts correct?

what about the one we were watching east of Barbados?



Those mets are referring to the wave spinning near 52W.
Quoting Makoto1:


Looks like 984 mb to me...


In GFS speak thats about the equivalent to a Category 3.
High resolution QuikScat of area near Barbados


Click on image to view original size in a new window



NHC discussion TD2

ON
THE OTHER HAND IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED LATE
IN THE PERIOD...IT WILL PROBABLY BECOME STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED
HERE.
3068. P451
XTRP is extrapolated. Meaning it takes the current exact motion of the storm and just draws a straight line in that exact direction endlessly. It's not a true forecast path model.

People were confused with it yesterday, Drak was dismissing it because it showed a WNW motion because he felt it wasn't moving WNW, but, if you look at the plots of 99L you will see it clearly did move WNW from the moment it left the African coast until late yesterday when the wave decided to turn west in response to steering.



TD2L
WoW the second TD of the season



we have a Atlantic Floater 1 on the natoinal hurricane center now...
Quoting P451:
XTRP is extrapolated. Meaning it takes the current exact motion of the storm and just draws a straight line in that exact direction endlessly. It's not a true forecast path model.

People were confused with it yesterday, Drak was dismissing it because it showed a WNW motion because he felt it wasn't moving WNW, but, if you look at the plots of 99L you will see it clearly did move WNW from the moment it left the African coast until late yesterday when the wave decided to turn west in response to steering.



I know that. Im saying its moving just north of west and the models all have it pulling a hard NW turn now.
i am surprised no one here has caught onto the anticyclone with less than 5 knots of shear sitting over the 52 W wave and it also has a closed low.it may become bill before the african wave.
3074. cg2916
From looking at the floater, I say this is what I see:

Visible - Looks way better than yesterday, clouds are more organized, and a COC is clearly visible.

Shortwave (IR2) - Not too good, convection is too heavy on the west, and the COC is a little open.

Water Vapor (IR3) - It has some dry air to cut thorugh, and it looks like a little got into the system, but it became half-dry, half-moist.

IR4 - Convection still a bit heavy on the west, but still looks good.

AVN - Looks like the convection is scattered and not very organized. Heavy on the east this time.

Dvorak - Scattered convection, a bit of deep convection near the center.

(I'm gonna skip JSL)

RGB - Convection is scattered, well-defined COC.

Funktop - Much precipitation is scattered, a lot near the center.

Rainbow - Once of convection scattered... I'm getting tired of saying that.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Whoa there Keeper. Super stretch.
FIXED
WOW!...just took a look at the ECMWF.
Phone Battery just died Brian.
3078. P451
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I know that. Im saying its moving just north of west and the models all have it pulling a hard NW turn now.


I think the general consensus is a slight north of west motion and then west through about 72 hours. Then all bets are off regarding the possible weakness in the ridge.

It's path is highly uncertain as is it's intensity forecast given all that dry air it's pushing into.

Other than suggesting a general westward movement with a slight northward component I don't see how anyone, even the models, can say with any certainty at all where it will be 72 hours from now.

Might as well draw a triangle from it's present position, to 50W 15N to 45W 25N and say "Yeah, somewhere in there sounds about right." lol.

I'm not paying any attention to the track models until tomorrow AM. They just don't have a handle on the situation at all.
3079. P451
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
FIXED


I dunno, I kinda liked it the other way.
Well thats why...

11/1145 UTC 14.5N 29.2W T2.0/2.0 02L
3081. Mikla
TD2 w/ models and current shear...


TD2 w/ models and steering...


TD2 w/ models and surface analysis...
Quoting P451:


I think the general consensus is a slight north of west motion and then west through about 72 hours. Then all bets are off regarding the possible weakness in the ridge.

It's path is highly uncertain as is it's intensity forecast given all that dry air it's pushing into.

Other than suggesting a general westward movement with a slight northward component I don't see how anyone, even the models, can say with any certainty at all where it will be 72 hours from now.

Might as well draw a triangle from it's present position, to 50W 15N to 45W 25N and say "Yeah, somewhere in there sounds about right." lol.

I'm not paying any attention to the track models until tomorrow AM. They just don't have a handle on the situation at all.


Thank you...someone else who finally agrees with me.
anticyclone over the 52w wave and it is showing some good signs or organizing.this wave will surprise everyone.i have seen it before to many times in that area.

Quoting WPBHurricane05:
WOW!...just took a look at the ECMWF.


What would that happen to show? Potential (Bill) has had gread model support and it isnt even all the way off africa.
I agree that TD is not bent to becomeing Ana. It has a 40% chance IMO in the next 24 hours to become a TS but it needs to overcome the dry air or it will be just a TD moisteriser for the "monster" you say is behind it.
Quoting Funkadelic:


What would that happen to show? Potential (Bill) has had gread model support and it isnt even all the way off africa.


ECMWF
Quoting CyberStorm:
anticyclone over the 52w wave and it is showing some good signs or organizing.this wave will surprise everyone.i have seen it before to many times in that area.



The GFDL is showing this area impacting SFL on Sunday.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wow...

Most of the models have initialized TD2 in the wrong spot. Also look at the XTRP. Due west. Models show NW.


That is JUST south of due west on movement hence the post after this that states TD 2 may develop quicker with a more southerly track to it.
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Explains why the NHC is south of the consensus.


XTRP is not a model - its the linear equivalent if the system continues on its current path
3091. GetReal
I know that everyone is concentrating on TD #2, and the models indicating a second system forming off Africa soon thereafter...

But take a look closer to home approaching the Lesser Antilles. The TW near 53W is displaying a nice cyclonic spin at the lower levels. IMO something could possibly pop with this system over the next 36 to 48 hours also.



VIS IMAGE TD02L


AOI


AOI
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


ECMWF


Right through the Box as a significant cyclone.
tropical depression two will keep moving west for the next 72 hours or more.
Good Morning All!

A lot going on in the Atlantic this morning...

My preliminary thoughts after looking at everything:

1. TD2 will become Ana, but barely. She will find the weakness in the mid-level ridge before she gets too close to Caribbean and will recurve harmlessly.

2. I'm getting more concerned with the wave near 52W. The CIMMS shear product shows a well developed Anti-Cyclone over the wave increasing divergence aloft (ventilation) and providing very low shear conditions. There is a nice LARGE pocket of 850 vorticity to work with - vorticity is a conservative property so it's favorable for development that there is so much to be tapped.

I would expect thunderstorm activity to SLOWLY increase in coverage over the next 24 hours as dry SAL air gets mixed out by the increasing precip.

Both the GFDL and NAM show some slow development with this area and a general track through or just north of Puerto Rico and then on towards the Bahamas. Obviously land interaction could disrupt development with a more southern track, but if the path is further north there could be a significant risk to Florida or in the Gulf of Mexico.


3. Finally, there is remarkable run to run consistency for development with the second wave from Africa by the GFS and the ECMWF to a lesser extent. The last time the GFS was so consistently bullish on development, it was dead on...so this bears watching over the next couple days!
Looks like Bill will be the agressive hurricane like we thought as Ana forms in a few days. I don't think this agressive storm will recurve, all of the East Coast needs to watch this potential monster. I'm starting to get really confident that 2 storms will be named by Saturday and we will have our first hurricane of the Season by next Monday.
3097. IKE
Quoting GetReal:
I know that everyone is concentrating on TD #2, and the models indicating a second system forming off Africa soon thereafter...

But take a look closer to home approaching the Lesser Antilles. The TW near 53W is displaying a nice cyclonic spin at the lower levels. IMO something could possibly pop with this system over the next 36 to 48 hours also.


That one is the most immediate concern. Waves usually fire up where it's at....

I've got my visible loop pointed to it.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Right through the Box as a significant cyclone.

On the model, to me it looks like the first one is a fish storm (TD2) and the second is the one that develops.
Quoting Chicklit:

On the model, to me it looks like the first one is a fish storm (TD2) and the second is the one that develops.


That has been my thinking all along. TD2 is developing just ahead of the curve.
WE BETTER FASTEN OUR SEAT BELTS. I HAD A FELLING THIS HURRICANE SEASON WAS FULL OF SURPRISES. WHERE IS EL NIÑOW KNOW? BE SAFE EVERYONE.
Keeper your graphics have security certificate errors and are not showing up. You might want to delete them.
The only thing keeping the 52W wave from developing is SAL. If this can get some convection going near the low level center then it could develop rather quickly. Doesnt seem like OTS is an option with this.
Quoting CaneWarning:
Wow TD2 is set to become Ana according to the NHC.

Well there goes the dream of a zero-zero-zero season I guess. Good morning everyone!
Well I didn't expect to see a special advisory issued to upgrade this to a depression. Interesting. Good morning all.
AL 02 2009081112 BEST 0 145N 291W 25 1006
3106. P451
3 Hour Visible ending 1145Z



3 Hour WV ending 1145Z

3107. cg2916
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
i have a bad feeling about 99L I DO NOT SEE THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO GOING OUT TO SEA AT ALL. the new models are going more west now.

Neither do I for some reason.
Quoting Weather456:
The vis floater looks impressive for Td 2. But It's my opinion its being affected by a bit of dry air.

Same here.
Quoting Chicklit:
Keeper your graphics have security certificate errors and are not showing up. You might want to delete them.
there from US NAVY FNMOC chicklit they are safe just click on go to site anyway would never sent bad links did a scan last night use my services all clear those NAVY site dont update there info for some reason
Quoting TropicTraveler:

Well there goes the dream of a zero-zero-zero season I guess. Good morning everyone!


Not quite. Forecast is for a Storm, that can change. Still 0, 0, 0 with the only entity battling dry air
can some one post the link to gfdl please?
NHC is bored. They're all sitting on their hands also. They jumped the gun on classification.
Quoting ineedwind:
NHC is bored. They're all sitting on their hands also. They jumped the gun on classification.


Dvorak intensity estimates were sufficient for classification and the QS pass showed a closed low. What more do you need?
Quoting cg2916:

Neither do I for some reason.

Same here.

neither do I somehow I think this is a caribbean system
3115. cg2916
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

neither do I somehow I think this is a caribbean system

I was thinking more Florida/GOM, but your guess is as good as mine.
3116. yamil20
Quoting ineedwind:
NHC is bored. They're all sitting on their hands also. They jumped the gun on classification.


if they wouldn't classified, then someone will say, oohh they are too conservative,sometimes i don't underatand how people react, by the way good morning everyone
In my opinion the NHC should have waited a day. Good sized area of dry air and SAL to its west should limit any strengthening over the next day or two.



3118. WAHA
Here is where I think TD2 will go:

Good Morning Everyone..from South Fla..

Based on the images this morning from NHC as predicted..MOJO is rising..

Stay well, enjoy the day
3121. NEwxguy
It really has nice structure,if it can fight off the dry air that is trying to intrude into it,it should become a TS a day or two down the road.
3122. WAHA
What does directly relevant mean?
3123. BDAwx

unless they know something we don't know
I'm a little more concerned about what the gfs is doing with the wave behind it even though its still over Africa and is a long term MODEL forecast to show how much I'm currently worried about TD2 but it could become Ana hmm...

Quoting ineedwind:
NHC is bored. They're all sitting on their hands also. They jumped the gun on classification.
Interestingly enough, NHC didn't mention anything about dry air in the discussion. Not saying that means anything, but interesting.
Quoting WAHA:
Here is where I think TD2 will go:



If those dots are indicating strength you are going to be WAY off. Where those red dots are on 'your' map is where shear and SAL will be the greatest.

Im surprised the news here in south florida wont talk about what models ae developing behind 99L.
Haha and this is only the start of what I'm predicting an active period of storms. I can see Ana, Bill, and Claudette these next 2 weeks. that makes 3 named storms for August. The second one posing a possible major threat to the Islands and USA. Now that we have lots of model support for the wave that is just coming off the coast of Africa(Bill), I'm confident this will form. Even the EURO has a Hurricane now so the GFS is not alone... Oh yeah, the CMC to.
While TD2 wanders and probably recurves out to sea, the high will build in enough to keep the second problem on a full westward track until reaching the Islands, then it could either go OTS, or head up the USA Coastline. Lots of time to watch this one.
3128. WAHA
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


If those dots are indicating strength you are going to be WAY off. Where those red dots are on 'your' map is where shear and SAL will be the greatest.


Oh, I knew there would be a problem! I didn't check the windshear! Thanks for pointing that out.
Tropical Depression 02l(no name)WARNING 1
110600Z POSIT NEAR 14.4N27.9W
MOVING 270 DEGREES TRUE AT 11 KNOTS
11/06Z WIND 25KTS GUSTS 35 KTS
11/18Z WIND 30 KTS GUSTS 40 KTS
12/06Z WIND 35 KTS GUSTS 45 KTS
12/18Z WIND 35 KTS GUSTS 45 KTS
14/06Z WIND 45 KTS GUSTS 55 KTS
15/06Z WIND 50 KTS GUSTS 60 KTS
...................................
maybe 60 mph by sunday???
3131. WAHA
Quoting ineedwind:
NHC is bored. They're all sitting on their hands also. They jumped the gun on classification.

Oh, heck no! In fact I think they DUCKED the gun!
Oh puhleese. There's less to be bored about now than there was the entire two months into the season and the NHC showed restraint then. They're not a bunch of bloggers speculating. They're professional meterologists with lists of specific requirements that have to be met before they'll call anything. We've seen cases where they won't call a TD because there is no COC but there's everything else. So they must have found the COC and whatever else has to go into a TD and called it what it was. By the way, the areas at The Windwards and out by 50W are still code yellow and looking pretty thin. Not saying they won't develop, but obviously the NHC isn't jumping the gun on anything. They haven't classified the wave behind TD2 yet, have they?
So anything new on this "Bill" wave?
Quoting Funkadelic:
Im surprised the news here in south florida wont talk about what models ae developing behind 99L.



they don't want to alarm people about something that hasn't even formed yet
3135. BDAwx
Bermuda could be threatened by TD2 in a few days and ya USA really needs to pay attention to what's behind it because it looks pretty intense a few weeks out or was it days more fascinated by what was happening than the time stamp my bad..
Quoting Funkadelic:
Im surprised the news here in south florida wont talk about what models ae developing behind 99L.

Just wait, I predict that wsvn 7 will be scaring the beejeebers out of everyone soon, every storm goes to Miami don;t ya know LOL
Quoting extreme236:
So anything new on this "Bill" wave?


Well the EURO now makes it a Hurricane if that's anything new, oh yea.. It also hits the northern Islands. My local news is talking about that particular wave which is coming off the African Coastline today.
Good Morning StormW how are you today?
3140. WAHA
Quoting extreme236:
So anything new on this "Bill" wave?

Well, it probably won't be "Bill" if you ask me.
Good morning to everyone! The "Atlantic sleeping beauty is very awake now! Wow!! I went to bed at 1 am and there were just two investement and now are 3!! 99l still fighting with the shear and SAL! Going west to the Antilles!! Like other guys said...no good feeling!
mornin' Senior Chief
O1C at Central Pacific becomes

TS MAKA

Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 13:56:15 N Lon : 171:46:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1001.0mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.9 3.1 3.7
3144. WAHA
...or at least doesn't hit land.
Quick 'Bill' wave update as of 12Z

It appears that the 850mb vort max is moving off the coast now. We should see a slow to gradual organization trend for the next 48 hours as this generally moves WNW. Conditions appear excellent for organization due to all the moisture left behind from TD2. Shear is about 8 knots and should stay to 5-15 knots throughout the next 72 hours. We should see the NHC mention this by later today.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Quick 'Bill' wave update as of 12Z

It appears that the 850mb vort max is moving off the coast now. We should see a slow to gradual organization trend for the next 48 hours as this generally moves WNW. Conditions appear excellent for organization due to all the moisture left behind from TD2. Shear is about 8 knots and should stay to 5-15 knots throughout the next 72 hours. We should see the NHC mention this by later today.



Thanks for the info.
Ok The GFS that shows a "son of Andrew" next weekend hitting south Florida. Was that TD#2 or what is behind TD#2 ???
Well woke up to what you are seeing now. It looks like it is time to track.
3150. WAHA
Quoting caribbeansurvivor1:
Good morning to everyone! The "Atlantic sleeping beauty is very awake now! Wow!! I went to bed at 1 am and there were just two investement and now are 3!! 99l still fighting with the shear and SAL! Going west to the Antilles!! Like other guys said...no good feeling!

99 is now Two, dude.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Quick 'Bill' wave update as of 12Z

It appears that the 850mb vort max is moving off the coast now. We should see a slow to gradual organization trend for the next 48 hours as this generally moves WNW. Conditions appear excellent for organization due to all the moisture left behind from TD2. Shear is about 8 knots and should stay to 5-15 knots throughout the next 72 hours. We should see the NHC mention this by later today.



Thanks Stormchaser2007, this is where the real game begins!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Quick 'Bill' wave update as of 12Z

It appears that the 850mb vort max is moving off the coast now. We should see a slow to gradual organization trend for the next 48 hours as this generally moves WNW. Conditions appear excellent for organization due to all the moisture left behind from TD2. Shear is about 8 knots and should stay to 5-15 knots throughout the next 72 hours. We should see the NHC mention this by later today.



Morning,

Yaah looks more dangerous than TD2!
Latest dynamical.

809

WHXX04 KWBC 111125

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO 02L



INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 11



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 14.2 27.9 270./ 9.9

6 15.1 28.7 317./11.9

12 15.5 30.3 283./15.3

18 15.9 32.2 283./18.9

24 15.7 33.6 260./13.9

30 15.6 35.2 268./15.1

36 15.4 36.9 260./16.4

42 14.9 38.3 251./14.6

48 14.8 39.7 266./13.4

54 14.8 41.2 272./15.3

60 14.6 42.2 256./ 9.8

66 14.6 43.5 272./12.7

72 14.9 44.9 283./13.1

78 15.2 46.2 283./13.6

84 15.5 47.4 283./11.6

90 15.9 48.7 289./13.3

96 16.7 49.8 305./12.8

102 17.6 51.4 300./18.2

108 18.3 52.9 294./15.7

114 18.6 54.9 278./19.0

120 20.0 56.3 314./19.4

126 20.6 58.0 291./16.7
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Shifting west. Not a good sign but they will change (hopefully back east).
Ill have a "Bill" wave update every 2 hours hopefully.
Good morning everyone and holy crap!

Did anyone happen to save any of the adrenaline you pumped into 99 overnight, cause I sure could use it? lol
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!
morning storm
3160. BDAwx
Quoting Chicklit:
Oh puhleese. There's less to be bored about now than there was the entire two months into the season and the NHC showed restraint then. They're not a bunch of bloggers speculating. They're professional meterologists with lists of specific requirements that have to be met before they'll call anything. We've seen cases where they won't call a TD because there is no COC but there's everything else. So they must have found the COC and whatever else has to go into a TD and called it what it was. By the way, the areas at The Windwards and out by 50W are still code yellow and looking pretty thin. Not saying they won't develop, but obviously the NHC isn't jumping the gun on anything. They haven't classified the wave behind TD2 yet, have they?


My bad didn't mean to quote there (trying to work the iPod) but I stand by my statement... Because I don't expect TD2 to affect/effect the US.
bbl
Prayers for the people of Shiao Lin.
Link
BD: They don't classify based upon whether something will make landfall, US or elsewhere. Think of scientific classification, high school biology. If something has certain characteristics, then it is named something.
That's how they do it. Trough, wave, depression, tropical storm, hurricane, typhoon, etc., all have to meet certain criteria in order to be named.
The Weather Channel says they are "the hurricane authority;" here it's Dr. Jeff Masters and the NHC. They are the hurricane authorities and don't make irresponsible statements because they're "bored." It's just offensive and a little silly to me.
When you see what's happening in China in the aftermath of Marakot you fully realize that while we're hobbyists watching tropical systems, and that is sort of a game, there is nothing funny or trivial about what can happen to a community, island, state or nation if and when a powerful storm hits. Actually, it's human misery at its worst. Anyway, have a great day.
Hi indianrivguy,
I was just thinking the other day I hadn't seen you this season. How you doing?
3163. WAHA
Quoting KimberlyB:
Good morning everyone and holy crap!

Did anyone happen to save any of the adrenaline you pumped into 99 overnight, cause I sure could use it? lol

Yes, that crap is indeed holy. Look how much it changed in just 18 hrs!
I believe we need to keep a close eye on the Caribbean.
3166. WAHA
I wonder when Drakoen is coming.
Morning all....i see we have now got soon to be Ana.....no surprise here!
Quoting Chicklit:

Oh puhleese. There's less to be bored about now than there was the entire two months into the season and the NHC showed restraint then. They're not a bunch of bloggers speculating. They're professional meterologists with lists of specific requirements that have to be met before they'll call anything. We've seen cases where they won't call a TD because there is no COC but there's everything else. So they must have found the COC and whatever else has to go into a TD and called it what it was. By the way, the areas at The Windwards and out by 50W are still code yellow and looking pretty thin. Not saying they won't develop, but obviously the NHC isn't jumping the gun on anything. They haven't classified the wave behind TD2 yet, have they?


I think 50w and 60w are dead. Looked way more promising yesterday. For TD2, NHC just looks at the data and makes their judgment based on hard facts (not wrong at all). Just saying they're not taking into account that it is basically surrounded by dry air/SAL.
Quoting futuremet:
Post - 3019: Wind field map



Is this TD#2 or what's behind TD#2 ???
Good morning,
If this is TD2, what was TD1?
Thanks, back to lurking ;)
Morning guys! Lots to talk about this morning...looks like the entire east coast will be on alert here soon. Wonder when the local Mets will start talking about this stuff.
Quoting dfwWxDude:
Good morning,
If this is TD2, what was TD1?
Thanks, back to lurking ;)


A short lived TD in May off the North Carolina coast.
The NHC cut out their 'development if any' line for the 52W wave.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS
DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3174. WAHA
Quoting marknmelb:


Is this TD#2 or what's behind TD#2 ???

no idea
Quoting dfwWxDude:
Good morning,
If this is TD2, what was TD1?
Thanks, back to lurking ;)

TD one was in May, a few days before june. Look it up on wikipedia.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Morning all....i see we have now got soon to be Ana.....no surprise here!

Yep. It was looking small but pretty well organized last night. I noticed it had a closed CoC on quikscat last night, and looked remarkably similar to TD1. It is going to have a struggle ahead against the SAL, but the first really organized wave usually does.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 14:26:19 N Lon : 29:06:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.5 /1012.0mb/ 25.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
1.5 1.5 1.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +5.1C Cloud Region Temp : -29.8C

Scene Type : USER DEFINED INITIAL CLASSIFICATION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************


Morning everyone? TD2 eh?
BIG spread:

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Latest dynamical.


isn't that the path frances took
3180. WAHA
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Morning everyone? TD2 eh?

Speaking in a canadian accent, eh?
Click on image to view original size in a new window



Quoting Acemmett90:

isn't that the path frances took


Similar. But this shouldn't even touch that strength.
Now we have TD 2, here's my predicition:

TD 2 becoming a TS 60-80%
TD 2 becoming a Hurricane 10-30%
TD 2 becoming a fish storm 50%
TD 2 hitting land 50%
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Similar. But this shouldn't even touch that strength.

good hows that bill wave doing
3185. WAHA
Now TD Two has an eye.
Link

The recently emerge wave look healthy...
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 124500 UTC
Lat : 14:26:19 N Lon : 29:06:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.5 /1012.0mb/ 25.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
1.5 1.5 1.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : +5.1C Cloud Region Temp : -29.8C

Scene Type : USER DEFINED INITIAL CLASSIFICATION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

3188. WAHA
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Now we have TD 2, here's my predicition:

TD 2 becoming a TS 60-80%
TD 2 becoming a Hurricane 10-30%
TD 2 becoming a fish storm 50%
TD 2 hitting land 50%

If it is a fish storm, can i eat it?
Looks like TD2 could pull a Frances/Jeane track.
Quoting Acemmett90:

good hows that bill wave doing


See posts 3145 and 3027
Bill would develop low enough to be a gulf storm.
Quoting Funkadelic:
Im surprised the news here in south florida wont talk about what models ae developing behind 99L.


That plays out, it would be chaos. The insurance industry is crippled right now thanks to Gov. Christ
Two yellow and a TD.
Yet the 0-0-0 rolls on!
But how long? Untill latter today?
Will the SAL slow this down?
Is this the end of the Perfecta?
The plot thickens with the mystery guest named SAL.
TD2 is forecasted to go up to 60-65 MPH at the end of the forecast period so beyond that it wouldn't surprise me to see TD2 become a Hurricane.
lol....let's see who eats who!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Quick 'Bill' wave update as of 12Z

It appears that the 850mb vort max is moving off the coast now. We should see a slow to gradual organization trend for the next 48 hours as this generally moves WNW. Conditions appear excellent for organization due to all the moisture left behind from TD2. Shear is about 8 knots and should stay to 5-15 knots throughout the next 72 hours. We should see the NHC mention this by later today.


that anit to good for the windwards
Quoting mobilegirl81:
Looks like TD2 could pull a Frances/Jeane track.


A Jeane track might be kind of hard to pull off considering its current location:

Quoting keywestbrat:
Hi indianrivguy,
I was just thinking the other day I hadn't seen you this season. How you doing?


well enough thank you. Been lurking, not much to comment upon until today. I hope things are well with you! Economy being what it us, I was forced to move and now live in a mobile home.. the newest models have me VERY nervous. My ability to prepare has been severly hampered by finances.. I'm sure I'm not the only one faced with these circumstances, but I must say.. I have been watching this season with dread in my heart.
Quoting mobilegirl81:
Bill would develop low enough to be a gulf storm.


Hummm...2 storms within days appart!
3200. ackee
where does the CMC and umket takes wave behind TD#2 any link thanks in advance
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


That plays out, it would be chaos. The insurance industry is crippled right now thanks to Gov. Christ


You can say that again.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
TD2 is forecasted to go up to 60-65 MPH at the end of the forecast period so beyond that it wouldn't surprise me to see TD2 become a Hurricane.


Look at shear and SAL then come back to me lol
3203. WAHA
Quoting Autistic2:
Two yellow and a TD.
Yet the 0-0-0 rolls on!
But how long? Untill latter today?
Will the SAL slow this down?
Is this the end of the Perfecta?
The plot thickens with the mystery guest named SAL.

LATTER?! YOU FAIL!
Quoting ineedwind:


I think 50w and 60w are dead. Looked way more promising yesterday. For TD2, NHC just looks at the data and makes their judgment based on hard facts (not wrong at all). Just saying they're not taking into account that it is basically surrounded by dry air/SAL.


Great point, but it has been that way for a few days, if it meets the requirements of a closed low per quikscat and Dvorak it can be classified despite what future it holds.
Some folks blogged earlier that is was a suprise South Fla media hadn't mentioned the activity in the Atlantic...Sure enough SunSentinel.com..just posted to the front page the track of TD2..see it didnt take long!!
Stay well...
3206. Seastep
Quoting extreme236:
Well I didn't expect to see a special advisory issued to upgrade this to a depression. Interesting. Good morning all.


It looked awesome at 5-6am. Perfectly round convection. That with an observed fully closed low. Really not a tough call at that point.

You can still see a hint of in the first frame at SSD, but not on the floater. Look at the CATL loop.
3192. TheCaneWhisperer 1:27 PM GMT on August 11, 2009
Quoting Funkadelic:
Im surprised the news here in south florida wont talk about what models ae developing behind 99L.


That plays out, it would be chaos. The insurance industry is crippled right now thanks to Gov. Christ


with the economy the way it is...a storm is the last thing anybody needs....i can just see the media and insurance companies scaring the bejeebies out of everyone...not to mention all the empty forclosed homes down south...not good at all...
The tropical outlook has caused me to go into deep-breathing mode.

wow...
That does not look good.
3210. JRRP
GFDL still showing Bill to the west
Link
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Look at shear and SAL then come back to me lol


Do you think TD 2 will even become named?
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


TD2

AOI
GFDL is pretty disturbing. It clearly develops 3 separate systems. The first is TD02 the next is the 'Bill' wave and the third is the 50W wave which it has cutting through south Florida and making it into the Gulf.

Tracks are marked by red lines and circles are points of genesis

3214. 7544
Quoting fmbill:



Good morning, all. I'm curious...per the 00z GFS, it appears the wave at 50w will come to the Florida east coast; followed by Ana crossing the southern tip of Florida; followed by "Bill" brushing the Florida east coast.

Anyone else seeing this?


thanks so its back to fla again
Quoting RescueAFR:
Some folks blogged earlier that is was a suprise South Fla media hadn't mentioned the activity in the Atlantic...Sure enough SunSentinel.com..just posted to the front page the track of TD2..see it didnt take long!!
Stay well...


They're talking about it in Tampa for sure.
Quoting indianrivguy:


well enough thank you. Been lurking, not much to comment upon until today. I hope things are well with you! Economy being what it us, I was forced to move and now live in a mobile home.. the newest models have me VERY nervous. My ability to prepare has been severly hampered by finances.. I'm sure I'm not the only one faced with these circumstances, but I must say.. I have been watching this season with dread in my heart.

Wow sorry to hear that, but she'll be right mate. There are alot of us hanging on by the skin of our teeth right now.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Do you think TD 2 will even become named?


I do. But at the moment im not following any models due to the lack of consistency and data. Im going to wait until tomorrow until I make a full intensity forecast and track. If the models look the same then Ill wait again.
Looks like the models are trying to tell us something.
Tropics are the lead story on Ch. 28's website here in Tampa. And we NEVER get hit (thanks Deflector Shields).

Think they'd be getting antsy down Miami way. I'm sure WeatherStudent is running through the streets screaming like a little girl right now.

Tucan sam?
Good Morning JRRP, ready to the College? What is expected to TD 1 and the "Bill" wave? I think we will have Anna at 12 or so....What u think pal?
Quoting mobilegirl81:
Looks like the models are trying to tell us something.

the are not telling us they are telling weatherstudent to get the heck off the east coast
Quoting BobinTampa:
Tropics are the lead story on Ch. 28's website here in Tampa. And we NEVER get hit (thanks Deflector Shields).

Think they'd be getting antsy down Miami way. I'm sure WeatherStudent is running through the streets screaming like a little girl right now.



lol
Quoting BobinTampa:
Tropics are the lead story on Ch. 28's website here in Tampa. And we NEVER get hit (thanks Deflector Shields).

Think they'd be getting antsy down Miami way. I'm sure WeatherStudent is running through the streets screaming like a little girl right now.



LOL...I can hear him in West Palm Beach...50 miles away!
Models will change a lot between now and when something actually reaches land.
where is weatherstudent somewhere probably asking everyone is it coming here
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


LOL...I can hear him in West Palm Beach...50 miles away!


Same here lol
Quoting caribbeansurvivor1:
Good Morning JRRP, ready to the College? What is expected to TD 1 and the "Bill" wave? I think we will have Anna at 12 or so....What u think pal?


TD 2* TD 1 was in May.
Quoting heliluv2trac:
where is weatherstudent somewhere probably asking everyone is it coming here


Right now he's in school.
Weather student is saying "Follow my nose!"
3232. WAHA
Quoting Acemmett90:

the are not telling us they are telling weatherstudent to get the heck off the east coast

Oh, and how is he offensive?
Quoting heliluv2trac:
where is weatherstudent somewhere probably asking everyone is it coming here


Today's his birthday. His present of significant tropical activity arrived same day.

Gotta love that Karma!
I must admit... Weather456 does make some nice graphics to understand whats going on.

3235. jscs
Quoting BobinTampa:
Tropics are the lead story on Ch. 28's website here in Tampa. And we NEVER get hit (thanks Deflector Shields).

Think they'd be getting antsy down Miami way. I'm sure WeatherStudent is running through the streets screaming like a little girl right now.



People are ready for a good story. Seems to me it's far too early to even say these storms will get named. Quiet year equals loud voices when anything forms.
3223. Acemmett90 1:37 PM GMT on August 11, 2009
Quoting mobilegirl81:
Looks like the models are trying to tell us something.

the are not telling us they are telling weatherstudent to get the heck off the east coast


that's just too dang funny...is weatherstudent JFV?? i haven't seen his scared frantic self in a while...
Just now got online today. Anyone mentioned that a couple models develop the 50W wave and the CMC takes it into the Gulf?
Morning everyone!!

FINALLY 99L is a TD. Going catch up on posts.
3239. WAHA
Quoting BenBIogger:


Right now he's in school.

How do you know?
Thanks for enlighting me in the TD matter, can u do the same offering your opinion to my question? thanks!!
Quoting jscs:


People are ready for a good story. Seems to me it's far too early to even say these storms will get named. Quiet year equals loud voices when anything forms.


very true. The local news likes nothing better than leading the newscast with the local weatherman breathlessly telling us how we're in the dreaded Cone of Uncertainty.
Quoting JamesGalloway:
Just now got online today. Anyone mentioned that a couple models develop the 50W wave and the CMC takes it into the Gulf?


The sneak attack was picked up by the GFDL as well.
where is drak i hope he got his computer fixed we are going to need all the help we can get for the upcoming weeks
Quoting CycloneOz:


Today's his birthday. His present of significant tropical activity arrived same day.

Gotta love that Karma!


wonder if he took your advice about the candles...
3245. Drakoen
I see that TD 2 has formed
post models
Good morning everybody.
I am quite surprised to see TD2. The NHC didn't mention anything about dry air in their discussion or outlook. They did however say that if it were to go a little bit further north than anticipated, it could be weaker. Stronger is it goes more south. No matter how much we know here, the NHC guys are the pros. I tend to think that because they didn't mention dry air/SAL it won't be a problem.
Who posted the pic of WS? We need a side profile to check the size of that beek.
Quoting Nolehead:
3223. Acemmett90 1:37 PM GMT on August 11, 2009
Quoting mobilegirl81:
Looks like the models are trying to tell us something.

the are not telling us they are telling weatherstudent to get the heck off the east coast


that's just too dang funny...is weatherstudent JFV?? i haven't seen his scared frantic self in a while...

YAH he is
Quoting Drakoen:
I see that TD 2 has formed


Barely..but yeah.

3251. 7544
count to 10 the gfsx 10 day

Link
Quoting WAHA:

How do you know?


Doesn't school start in Broward county today?
My 14Z 'Bill' wave update should be interesting.
Quoting 7544:
count to 10 the gfsx 10 day

Link

thats a one two punch on south florida i may take the ws aprocch and get off the east coast
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Shifting west. Not a good sign but they will change (hopefully back east).
EVERYTIME WE GET A NEW UPDATE ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS MOVING MORE WEST OF THE MODELS..
3256. Drakoen
StormChaser, can you send me a link to the view off the African coast from the Navy please.
Quoting Drakoen:
StormChaser, can you send me a link to the view off the African coast from the Navy please.


Yep. Gimmie a sec
3258. Drakoen
I think the NHC track will have to be shifted to the south and west
"Im surprised the news here in south florida wont talk about what models ae developing behind 99L."

Why surprised? The media shouldn't be talking about a storm that hasn't even developed yet. Any predictions as to this wave's fate are fraught with huge errors.
Quoting Drakoen:
I see that TD 2 has formed


Yup,

GFDL
3261. Mikla
TD2 w/ some models, WV, SSTs, and SAL...
we need new blog and whats the time frame of the wave getting in the gulf and where is it going n nw wnw w
Quoting Drakoen:
I think the NHC track will have to be shifted to the south and west


I concur.

Model support is slowly shifting.

The weaker this stays the more south it travels.
3265. ackee
does any one think the wave at 50W will develop
Quoting heliluv2trac:
we need new blog and whats the time frame of the wave getting in the gulf and where is it going n nw wnw w


The Doc should have an update soon.
Quoting heliluv2trac:
whats the time frame of the wave getting in the gulf and where is it going n nw wnw w


print out a map of the atlantic basin and throw darts at it. this will give you a forecast with equal skill to anything the models, or bloggers, are telling you now.
Drak...Any luck with your computer?
3269. P451
21hr loop ending 12Z

3270. IKE
Quoting ackee:
does any one think the wave at 50W will develop


It could.

Appears centered near 13.5N and 52.5W.
Quoting Drakoen:
StormChaser, can you send me a link to the view off the African coast from the Navy please.


Here ya go Draky

Link
Good morning everyone! See that we now have Tropical Depression 2. Its not surprising considering the impressive closed surface circulation that developed last night and convection came back some last night to help put it over the edge. Only seeing some gradual strengthening as we go into the future.
How is everyone's computers? Drake did you ever get yours back up and running?
It is clear in less than 24hrs TD2 will be TS ANA.
Conditions now are good for develop.
3275. Drakoen
Quoting presslord:
Drak...Any luck with your computer?


I just woke up. Haven't taken a stab at it yet.
Quoting BobinTampa:
Tropics are the lead story on Ch. 28's website here in Tampa. And we NEVER get hit (thanks Deflector Shields).

Think they'd be getting antsy down Miami way. I'm sure WeatherStudent is running through the streets screaming like a little girl right now.


ROFL
Quoting futuremet:


Here ya go Draky

Link

Already sent him it.
Also thats the wrong one lol
Quoting StormW:
Somebody wanna tell the ECMWF model to knock it off!

ECMWF


Ouch........too many showing the same thing now StormW.....
3279. 7544
anyone just waking up the 06 gfs

Link
3280. P451
NEW BLOG
Quoting Acemmett90:

thats a one two punch on south florida i may take the ws aprocch and get off the east coast


Lol I know right... Does steering really look favorable for a Florida landfall?

I honestly cant afford any storm or hurricane, plus I have a blue tarp on half my roof already!
Quoting CycloneOz:


Today's his birthday. His present of significant tropical activity arrived same day.

Gotta love that Karma!
he's got 3 big presents from atlantic each one bigger than the first if yer there ws happy b day
TD # 2 is already a tropical storm(pressure wise). 1006 MBs. It has such a looong trip to make. Depending on the track depends on the strength.
Quoting Funkadelic:


Lol I know right... Does steering really look favorable for a Florida landfall?

I honestly cant afford any storm or hurricane, plus I have a blue tarp on half my roof already!


You should of used your insurance money to replace your roof from last storm
3285. cg2916
New blog!
The action is still far far away from the east coast! Tracking will most likely change. We are days out from this impacting any part of the CONUS
GFS 6z just poofs ther bermuda high at the end of the run? Didn't even allow for retrograde? Maybe I'm looking at it wrong but I don't think thats the setup that gets a right-hook west fl coast strike. I see the trough slididing down to pull it, but I don't think the bermuda would just disappear quite like that, would think it would shunt the trough somewhat NW as it came in.
the new update will be at 11am on tropical depression two.
CycloneOz - Lurk Mode=On

No telling when I'll turn it off. Find me and my videos / animations on YouTube.

Best Wishes everyone! :)

CycloneOz - Out...

/lurk mode now on