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Hawaii and Mexico need to keep a wary weather eye

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:46 PM GMT on October 10, 2006

It's an El Nino year in the Pacific, which means that Hawaii and the Pacific coast of Mexico are at increased risk of hurricane landfalls this month. Hawaii needs to watch an area of disturbed weather (now called 97C) near 9N, 165W, about 700 miles southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. Its thunderstorm activity is disorganized this morning, but 97C has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by Thursday. The two latest runs of the GFDL model have brought 97C to hurricane status by early next week, with a northward track towards Hawaii. The system is currently under about 10 knots of winds shear, and is underneath an upper-level anticyclone. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are about 29C, and there is a very deep pool of warm water underneath to fuel intensification. These are all very favorable conditions for development. SSTs stay above 26C all the way to Hawaii, and a landfalling hurricane in the islands is a possibility a week or so from now.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for disturbance "97C".

Elsewhere in the tropics
A low pressure system a few hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina is non-tropical, and is not expected to become tropical as it moves northeast parallel to the coast. This system could bring heavy rain to Cape Cod and the Maritime provinces of Canada later this week. Some of the models are hinting that a low pressure system could form in the Gulf of Mexico off the Texas coast early next week. If this storm forms, it could be non-tropical. The models are also forecasting the possibility of a hurricane forming along the Mexican Pacific coast early next week, and moving parallel to the coast towards Baja. However, the two current storms approaching Baja, Tropical Depression 16E and Tropical Storm Norman, are both expected to dissipate before reaching Baja, due to high wind shear and cool waters.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. M.. A great season as far as I am concerned - at least for the Gulf Coast.
When was the last time we had a season this uneventful?
Good morning and thanks Dr. M for update! Have a great day!!!
Hey Ally - welcome back! Hope your trip was good - except for the rain and all - still you probably had a great time. The rain mighr have even been fun considering we haven't had any here all summer.
Thanks Dr. M. Season just can't let go. Hoping if any form, will be minimal only, at land fall.
Thanks for the update. Hopefully Hawaii does not get hit, especially not by another Iniki.
UnqualifiedBlogger - the last Atlantic hurricane season that was like this year's was 1997, also an El Nino year. In fact, they are very similar in terms of impacts:

1997: $130 million damages, 11 deaths
2006: $183 million damages, 17 deaths (11 direct)
Hurricane Iniki...Link
..Inikis track..Link
a season of continued drought until next year...nature has a natural way of replenishing itself, and global warming isnt making our situation any more stable. Until next year my friends. Glad to finally see a safe, inactive season. All hail "El Nino", and hope "The Child" returns next year.
Looks like rain chances will be on the increase along the Gulf Coast next week. Thanks again Dr. Masters!!
Wonders if the GOM storm tracks North of Me..It will be a warm rain event..if it tracks south of me..a freaking cold rain event...
heres a quick question, has anybody actually ever seen Dr. Masters post on this blog? I haven't so I'm just wondering :)
The Doc has entered a few active storm debates...
how bad do you think the Florida wildfires are going to be next year? I thought this year was bad.
Hopefully there won't be any major landfalls in Mexico or Hawaii, and activity off of Mexico can send more moisture into the Southwest to help relieve the drought.
Story - Yes, I have seen Dr. Masters post comments before, usually in reply to somebody's question.
lol can you imagine what StormTop would be like communicating with Dr. Masters? I would probably pay to see that.
Dr. Masters does occasionally post on here, if someone asks a good question.
Blizzard of March 93..Remember this look come Saturday..Link
SOTC. Hopefully, El Nino will bring us some rains this winter. We are already below normal in the Northern Half of the State. It has been very dry up here the last few months. We need to get some good El Nino rains this winter, if not we will be in trouble.
like responding to an e-mailed question or a question posted on the blog?
Yesterday, I noticed a good bit of moisture streaming from the East Pacific over the U.S.; this will help contribute to needed rain today and tomorrow.
does it tend to rain more in FL during El Nino? I havent been down here long enough to know. Last winter it barely rained at all.
KATRINA..highest resolution..Link
Winter precipitation probability during El Nino (green above normal, red below normal):



Here is the NE Pacific water vapor, showing lots of moisture streaming from TS Norman and Olivia.
Woohoo Micheal - so when is it going to get to South Alabama?
Just poppin in for a sec...congrats to Nash, ricderr and cbbeachbum for correct answers both in multiple choice and explanations. Thanks to all for participating....I have a great one for next Tuesday.
El Nino is good for the whole southern half of the country as far as precip goes. But strange things can happen. With the strong El Nino in the winter of 1997-98, Florida had good rains, but then it suddenly turned very hot and dry in the spring and early summer, leading to the devastating 1998 fire season. Too much winter rain causes more growth of grasses/underbrush which can make the fire situation worse the next summer (a common problem in southern California).
This local met has the clues for Missouri..Link
This local met has the clues for Missouri..Link
This local met has the clues for Missouri..Link
Good map, Michael!
Colorado is right on the edge during an El Nino. The southern half of the state usually ends up with a very good mountain snowpack, while the northern mountains get less. Spring is often very wet in Colorado during an El Nino. Denver has had some big blizzards during El Nino events.
do tropical climates get wildfires? like the amazon.
The JB Winter outlook...sent to me by someone..LOLLink
JB forecasts can be fun to read, but don't verify too often.
In today's blog Jeff wrote, " Some of the models are hinting that a low pressure system could form in the Gulf of Mexico off the Texas coast early next week. If this storm forms, it could be non-tropical"
He says this could be non tropical. I would assume that it could also be tropical since he used the word "Could"!
CPC 6-10 day outlook:



CPC 8-14 day outlook:

Too cold on North side to be a purely tropical system..the Temp contrast wont allow for that entity to be a pure tropical system.But it can deepen quickly if the right situ presents.Stay tuned..Friday -Sunday..
Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 9:37 AM CDT on October 10, 2006.

do tropical climates get wildfires? like the amazon.


Yes; here is an article from 1998 (note that it says that El Nino causes drought in the Amazon).
If something forms along the Texas western GOM..it will have to eject EnE..thru time..and could be a wet one for Someone..along the GOM N..or East Coast..
StoryOfTheCane,
Yes, the tropics can have wildfires. I believe during the 1997-98 El Nino event, there were huge fires in Indonesia (El Nino causes drought in southeast Asia). Also, I saw an article recently, can't remember where, that global warming could cause precip to decline in the Amazon basin and lead to drought/wildfires there.
Speaking of the 1997-1998 fires in Indonesia, there are currently widespread fires right now.
What are the buoy readings like around this? We have 8ft seas in the area also.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-19N
BETWEEN 66W-70W.
TWC for some reason keeps comparing us the 05' season....dont they know,IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN IN OUR LIFE TIMES
..In tropical weather..one will learn to never..say never..
Well, no one knows whether anything like that will ever happen again. We can only hope it doesn't, but it could happen during our lifetimes.
I agree that 2005 will probably never happen again, at least not for many decades; however, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the individual storm records fall in the next 10 years or so.
agreeing..LOL..in no way..alters the Future....or the past.
Its all relative..as in 92 a slow year.But to those who Andrew affected..in 2 states..might beg to differ..Einstein was Right.
Example of records that have been set in my lifetime:

Strongest storms:
Gilbert 1988
Wilma 2005

Costliest storms:
Hugo 1989
Andrew 1992
Katrina 2005
No Saddle...you have to go to myspace for that.
Patrap - thanks for bringing it back to weather - THAT'S what I meant - sure it was - that's the ticket!
When comparing Strength..in overall impact.Theres no debate on the Most Destructive..Katrina..by far..The mb being lower..is moot.
Wilmas wind field analysis..Link
THE map..no one wants ..showing the impacts..early..Noaa dont make these ..often..thankfully..Link
good morning all, nice weather, huh rand? hey pat, re:"Posted By: Patrap at 2:33 PM GMT on October 10, 2006.

This local met has the clues for Missouri..Link
Posted By: Patrap at 2:33 PM GMT on October 10, 2006.

This local met has the clues for Missouri..Link
Posted By: Patrap at 2:32 PM GMT on October 10, 2006.

This local met has the clues for Missouri..Link"


is this like "head-on"...... jo
a 2.5 hr drive across that impact zone...
..no..its the WU bad slow server..LOL
no hobe..just the Wu slow server..
Texas getting hammered from the Low and first front..BadLink
TORNADO WARNINGS....!!!!Link
seek shelter immediately...
Oh boy...27 and Emmy Rose are there I think. I hope they fair o.k. That stuff is supposed to get to Alabama MAYBE this evening. Hopefully it will do the usual and just evaporate.
The Radar from that line..LinkLink
reloaded radar..Link
notice the BOW echo forming in the last few frames..BAd..very bad...Link
if ya have freinds in Houston or Above..might wanna letum know about this one..
MTJAX - Where are you with the 8' seas. Reason I ask is that I am having a boat delivered to St. Thomas and it is in Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic now. Thay are to leave to cross the Mona Passage tonight for Boqueron, Puerto Rico. Any input?
From the NHC
A TROPICAL WAVE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR.



One of the final watch areas for the season IMO!
Heres the Warning..Link
This line has a history already...in TexasLink
Hang in there 5 more days pulse..The weekend has a twist.
Sailor, here is the Atlantic Sea state and currents. Looks like most the heavy seas are south of your destination.

Looks much worse in 48 hours so get moving

Atlantic Sea State

IN 48 HOURS

48 hour Peak Wave Period / Primary Swell Direction
San Juan local mets forecast..Link
Come Thursday.or 48..id be done with the move...
Here are the heights that go with the frequencies of the last graphic. 48 Hours

24 hour wave wind forecast
The Cold pool is on the move...Link
Thanks MTJaX and Patrap
I had forwarded these and some other info all motning. I also told them to either stick with the plant to cross the Mona now or they should wait until the next one passes. I am flying to Boqueron Saturday to accept the vessel and bring it back to STT.
Wher are you MTJax?
Okay..good luck.!Link....MAn!..this thing is big and deep and COLD...
In case anyone missed the wind/cold factory that is scheduled for 12Z on Thursday. The Texas activity is the beginning of a mess on CONUS.

Day 3 Fronts
This thing is Artic..and shows up well in the IR..T-Storms in Canada...Link
MTJax in Jacksonville, FL.

Main Naval base is Mayport, NFL Team is the Jaguars. County is Duval which has the most land area of any county in the US.
Here is hte 6 day fronts with the double LOW nearing the Texas coast on Sunday 12Z

Day 6 Fronts
MTJ
Since you mentioned the wave and 8' seas in the area also, thought maybe you were in that area instead of jax.
The Candian View..Link
Wonder if the LOw is going to Devlop..or ride up the front...without making much trouble..
for 97C 97C is a goner
lol
The Collision somewhere in the Lower Miss Valley ..come thursday is going to have this on the Northern flank...Link
yeah MTJax, heavy snow and bitter cold (for this time of year) is forecast across a wide area of western Canada today and it is moving south and east..
Have to wait and see how the SFC PROG runs at 18Z today to verify the LOW.
Heres the big pic..charted & plotted..may want to bookmark..save this one..LOLLink
MTjax..if that pans out later..It could get the fever up,.. Big time...
sorry bout that one link..reloaded..Link
Yep..I see a 1038 mb high Pressure ..Link
Hey Pap, have you noticed the title on those charts? LOL
No cold for Miami...either..
Man..its cold in this webcam shot..brr!..Link
Agree with the Dr Masters on this Hawaii disturbance. Something to watch. Iniki was a powerhouse as well as Iwa which hit the islands about 10yrs before Iniki. Iniki happened the same yr as Andrew.
Good afternoon.

I trust the wind shear has kept everyone safe from cat5 fears over the last week!
another view of the Cold Canadians ..Link
Has anybody seen this yet?

NOAA OUTLOOK CALLS FOR MILD WINTER FOR MOST OF THE NATION

Another spoiled winter...
They better look north now..LOL
Heres one more behind the Cold..Link
Hola. checking in briefly. Looks cold northward of you guys. I cant imagine that.34 deg cel here.
Well looks like all the skiers will be upset this year again. Not a good year for weather buffs and people who enjoy being out in it.
109. 882MB
Can someone please post the FSU TROPICAL MODELS
Here's the forecast for the place in southern Manitoba (in the middle of Canada, where my in-laws live) as the current cold front roars in:

Arborg - Hecla - Fisher River - Gypsumville - Ashern.
Winter storm watch in effect.
Today..Rain mixed with snow. Rainfall amount 5 to 10 mm. Wind
southwest 20 km/h becoming northwest 20 early this afternoon.
Temperature falling to plus 1 this afternoon.
Tonight..Snow. Amount 10 cm in onshore winds. Wind northwest 20 km/h
becoming light this evening. Low minus 2.
Wednesday..Periods of snow ending in the evening then cloudy with 60
percent chance of rain showers. Snowfall amount 10 cm in onshore
winds. Wind becoming northwest 40 km/h gusting to 60 in the evening.
Temperature steady near minus 3.
112. 882MB
YA NEED TO TAKE GOOD LOOK AT THE WAVE NEAR THE ISLANDS SEEMS TO HAVE DEVELOPED A SMALL CIRCULATION.
113. 882MB
THANX PROGRESSIVEPULSE
This early Jet dip with associated cold temps..to smash a few records..
Look for this page to stay busy..Link
GFS has whatever comes of it traveling North of the islands into heavy shear!
TEXASLink..Houston proper..in Bad situation..
More BAD news for TEXAS..Link
SW La..SE La..And Coastal Miss..should monitor this ..Thru the evening...Lotsa trailers and debris still..
120. MTJax
This thing has 3 tonadoes in Houston area already. I agree Pat, LA better secure the blue tarps.
so whats the haps with the tropical wave approaching the islands looks mean
Finishing up bar-b-cuing my Baby Back ribs..so Ill have something to nibble on tonight as this kicks up the Fuss...
Texas watch..Link
NOLA preview..Link
send marshmellows for cocoa...lil ones..not dem fat biguns..LOL
you all called it....vortex sig X6 ...bow echo developed a comma then a hook on NW side... lots of Gulf hot SST feed seen on echo top circulation.....I was stationed in Abilene when one of these storms hit my Fiat I had just bondoed and painted...knocked the bondo out..dented it all to moon crater, left a pile of hail on the front seat that would have frozen even Santa...nasty storms, nice women , cold beer out there...reel bull
Houston Webcams..transit..Link
lets try again..Link
if you use the camera map..look at the west side of Houston to find the rain..
all Major cities should have a link like Houstons transit does.
the wave in the near the islands looks alot better organize
Not sure if anyone posted it yet, but here's an interesting read:
Link
I brought this up a couple months ago, and I still think it might be worth looking into...climate change (with the "help" of overgrazing and human activity) mitigating its own effects on hurricanes. Who knows!?
133. 0741
his leedward islands radar sitehttp://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html BUT it look like it down now not working
Just a wee bit of dry air to contend with...lolLink
135. MTJax
The 2:05p TWDAT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101807
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W SOUTH OF 23N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W...FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN
54W AND 55W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N69W 14N70W
8N70W MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. THE WAVE IS
HEADING TOWARD AN AREA NOW COVERED BY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW...WHICH IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THE TROUGH RUNS FROM A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N72W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO 27N74W
23N76W TO 18N79W JUST WEST OF JAMAICA.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THE POSITION HAS BEEN EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE LAST
MAP ANALYSIS. THIS WAVE DOES NOT SHOW UP WELL AT ALL IN THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
EXACTLY RELATED TO THIS WAVE. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IS ON
TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA SOUTH OF 14N83W 12N77W. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THIS AREA.
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ALONG THE LINE FROM COASTAL SECTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALONG THE BELIZE COAST FROM 16N TO 18N.

...THE ITCZ...
11N14W 9N30W 8N38W 12N55W 12N60W 11N66W. 22W 9N37W 11N49W
11N53W 10N62W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 12N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO INTERIOR CENTRAL MEXICO.
HIGH CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 22N...CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS
THE AREA. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...
CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE COAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE
FRONT IS COLD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS...BECOMING WARM INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF...AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY EVERYWHERE ELSE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...COVERING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...
AND GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS
INTO THE AREA OVER CUBA TO 18N79W JUST WEST OF JAMAICA. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE ADVANCING WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA-TO JUST WEST OF
JAMAICA TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 24N56W TO 17N58W TO 14N61W TO NORTH
CENTRAL VENEZUELA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW IS NEAR
32N72W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 32N72W TO
27N74W 23N76W TO 18N79W JUST WEST OF JAMAICA. THIS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER AND CORRESPONDING TROUGH ARE THE DRIVING FORCES FOR THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM 32N707W TO 27N74W TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 26N WEST OF 60W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH THE TROUGH...ALONG 20N70W 26N66W BEYOND 32N62W. THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH STARTS OUT
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 24N56W TO 17N58W TO 14N61W TO NORTH
CENTRAL VENEZUELA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THIS TROUGH. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 25N28W TO 11N36W. A DISSIPATING
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 25N30W TO 25N37W...
CURVING NORTHWARD BEYOND 32N39W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
FRONT.

$$
MT
136. MTJax
Looks shorter than yesterday
hi all

Just checking in
The wave near Barbados is only under about 5 knots of shear now and does bear watching

Link
138. MTJax
The double LOW in Texas combined into a single LOW on the 1800Z runs of the SFC PROG for the 6 day fronts

6 day fronts
Barbados obs

Wind ESE @12 and pressure of 29.88 in. as the wave approachesLink
Patrap, you lurking there?
Patrap, mail
It is not usually this early in the Hurricane Season that I wish to live in the North East again for the interesting Nor'easters of winter.

However, this hurricane season has just been such dud.
Nothing interesting...so I'm forced to be bored.
good day all, good luck wishcasting, i mean blob watching, see ya later
144. ryang
i live in barbados who can tell me about that wave on my doorstep
Wind shear decreasing ahead of the tropical wave east of the islands, the visible satellite shows a little bit of circulation trying to form. very interesting!!!
we get some noreasters that would make a hurricane envious sometimes
The double LOW in Texas combined into a single LOW on the 1800Z runs of the SFC PROG for the 6 day fronts

look in kansas not good weather I live in Platte City MO and it looks like we will not have very good weather in that period of time
Barbadoes pressure now at 29.85 lol
The Barbados wave is only under light shear for a very short period of time. It will get shredded to pieces by the morning.
Good afternoon,

Ive been watching a tropical wave a couple of hundred miles to the east of the windward islands.Right now for the most part this TW is interacting with an upper low and should continue to push westward and move into the caribbean.This wave will eventually reach the western caribbean in the next couple of days and will have to be monitered for possible slow development as shear is forcasted to drop of a bit and may allow some organization to take place.

The 11:30am outlook from then NHC this morning mentioned the possibilty of some slow devevelopment.

A TROPICAL WAVE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR.


Here is a close-up IR image of the wave as it approaches the windward islands.



Click here for another view of the wave
Don't be wishcasters now.

You guys make me laugh. Stop pointing out every single blob. 95% chance its going to be NOTHING of interest right now. Shear

This week is DEAD TIME as far as tropical activity goes.

Forget about the Barbados wave. It is mearly nothing, and it will stay that way. (Unless it enters the W. Caribbean during low shear)

The rest of the season I wont speculate about. But, I suggest common sense in 0-2 more storms. However, if more were to form...this week does not look like the one.

Ron5244 now one is being a wishcaster iam just indicateing the possiblity of some slow development of this wave once it reaches the western caribbean in the next couple of days.
I was not directing that at you, 23.

Do not act guilty.
Ok ironic
On august friday the 13 2004
Hurricane Charley the 3rd most colstliest
hurricane ever hit FL as a catogroy 4
hurricane
The GFS tries to develope a closed circulation with this wave sometime on thursday.
Can I have a link to this run, 23?

Thank you in advance.
ok Ron5244...
If you're looking for a past hurricane that the 2006 season is capable of producing...

Hurricane Irene is definetly one:
IN TRACK AND INTENSITY

This track of TS Bonnie (2004) is a very strong possibleity
if this thing devlops

Ron5244 here is the 5:30 0utlook from the NHC...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 102057
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

Or TS Earl (2004) is a possiblity

An Irene scenario is the most possible in my opinion.If development were to occur with this wave it is likely it will occur once it reaches the western caribbean.
LOL... I don't think the Atlantic is capable of producing a hurricane; why not look at the Pacific? Specifically, Tropical Storm Soulik, forecast to become a Cat 4, possibly a Cat 5 (it would be the 4th one this year). And what about 97C, forecast by the GFDL to become a hurricane and threaten Hawaii?
Ron. Hurricane23 wins my award every week. I didn't have any trophies left!..LOL
Thank You ST!! Did I actually say that??..LOL
STORMTOP that maybe correct across the GOM but overall conditions in the caribbean in a few days may allow for this wave moving threw the windward islands to develope some once it reaches the western caribbean.
03 I SAID THIS 2 WEEKS AGO IM JUST MAKING IT OFFICIAL....
Yes, I think most people have said this ST. Hur23 just likes to dream:)
23 I COULD CARE LESS WHAT HAPPENS IN THE CARIBBEAN i only worry about the gulf...StormTop
It can support a hurricane.

Just not an intense one.
weatherguy03 the 5:30 outlook from the NHC indicates that the possiblity of some slow development with this wave.No one is dreaming i was just trying to point out the possibility.
23, don't let these people bother you.

Slow development..LOL How many times have we heard that this season.
By the way, Tropical Storm (soon to be Typhoon) Soulik is threatening part of the U.S. Link (well, not a state, but it is U.S possesions, so it should count)

In other words, the Atlantic is not the whole world when it comes to tropical storms (many act as if storms elsewhere don't exist)...
Michael. What a stretch!!..LOL
There have been so many Pacific storms. They are so boring to track.

hmmmm

pressure rising at Barbados !
Not much to that wave so far

Link
The Pacific can be far crazier than the Atlantic; for example, there were ten Cat 5s in 1997 in the West Pacific (including three storms stronger than Wilma and it even had two 185 mph storms doing a Fujiwhara effect). 1964 had 52 tropical depressions and 39 storms (two had 195 mph winds).
LOL @ Stormslop
i have to agree with ST on the season being over...be back for the noreasters!!
Convection is indeed on the increase with this wave and iam also seeing some rotation with it but right now its likely to be in the mid-levels,but that could change. Adrian
here's the French buoy E of Martinique. A little bit far away but interesting still

Link
Rotation??..LOL Oh boy 23, you are gonna win again!!
i will repeat my post i made earlier

good day all, good luck wishcasting, i mean blob watching, see ya later
if anything, and that's a far stretch, were to develop it would be in the caribbean, and be for a short time, it would move it to the gom and get sheared to death, the story of the season, i hope you all enjoyed this blessing from God, because next 2 years will be slightly above normal activity
IMHO it is too early to declare the season over. While all the long range forecasts look promising, the weather is linked all over the world and one thing changing can have a chain effect on all the rest. I do not expect anything of any consequence to occur, but I think it is still too early to hold a funeral for the season.
Ron, what did i tell you about the MORON model, make sure people know you have to be a moron to believe it!!!!
ron, maybe you should change the name to wishcaster model!!!
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 5:41 PM EDT on October 10, 2006.

Rotation??..LOL Oh boy 23, you are gonna win again!!

You also make me laugh mocking everthing i say...If you look at a close-up visible loop of this wave you can clearly see a mid-level spin with it.
ya 23 i can see it. Most likey mid
but it may build in soon.
204. MTJax
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lol storyofthecane, i wonder how long it took them to figure that one out............


is that a loop with the nogaps, and gfs?? lol
The MORON model is showing that slam into New York City, WPB.

All those models are goin for a loop!
Is it just me, or did my posts disappear? I think I am going to copy and save them so I can repost them when it happens again...
I think it might do a Jeanne! ha!
uh o ron.....better start the eveacuations, may take a while!!
Looks like a loop to the WEST...oh no I said it...well its gonna go east first then south and then loop west...yea thats what I meant.
Here it comes..Link
The Artic Plunging south..fast...Link
The IR channel shows it much better...Link
Looks way like DLinkcember...Wowsa..
220. MTJax
Looks like NO,LA will have the front in 3-4 hours.
Hey y'all! I was walking to 6th period today when the squall line came into my area. There are multiple buildings to my high school, and I just happened to be walking across campus when the squall line hit. I left water marks in 6th period.
i was told that the Artic cold front will be moving so fast that it wont be able to pick up enough cold air over canada, which durring this time isnt that cold
23, give me a break. That does not have rotation to it. Its gonna get sheared apart and go bye bye.
And here was the GFS model you said showed a closed low...Link Where would that be?
the Artic mass is moving so fast ,it hasnt time to modify..is the correct assumption...
LOL..This is a Polar Artic Mass..not from Canada..just passing thru..Be glad this is not January..in the South with this xpress flow...
just saying what i was told
23-
some are mockers, some are thinkers and some are stinkers...no worries.
The first front heading my way..but is weakening now..its that one Thursday ..thats the one im waiting for.
Well, I definately don't want to go to St. Louis any time soon. To tell you the truth, I really don't mind the summer heat of Houston.
well all I know is its not going to give south florida any weather changes, just some more dry air, and a shift in wind direction, high 82-87 low 65-70
Yeah WPB. Actually, it will be cooler this past weekend then this coming weekend in North Florida. This front will lose its punch once it gets to Florida. Trough does not dig SE far enough. Kind of puts on the breaks a lifts out a bit. But I will take it around 80 with low humidity!!
NOLA roller coaster forecast..Link
Look how cold it's supposed to get on Friday this far south!

Link
well cold weather can do this to a space shuttle......

the fLinkirst fronts a coming...
Challenger explosion...
No..only people make them kind of mistakes Teddy.
well its that time of year again, the snow birds should start coming in any time now, traffic getting worse
Posted By: Patrap at 5:26 PM CDT on October 10, 2006.

the fLinkirst fronts a coming...


That's the squall line that I talked about in my 5:15 CDT time post.
I see ya watching it 1900..nasty..but hopefully will weaken b-4 gets my hood
Cybr...its not going to get that cold, it was a combination of cold weather and humman error

2. any one, why do they call them computer models, and say that humans have no input, when humans make them....
yep
O ring failure due to Very cold weather in cape
Canavral. THe O-Ring wasnt designed for anything below 50 Degrees and the weather was
about freezing so the O-Ring failed causing
the shuttle to blow up because of cold weather
"first time a space craft in man flight history
that a rocket blew up due to weather"
Expect to lose my Sat TV link when it arrives...
so yes it was due to human error..
and cold weather
Wikipedia's article on 'Drew.

Link
is there a chance that this front doesnt loose its showers when it gets to Fl, starting to get tired of dry weather, wipers need another work-out
Sorry, wrong blog. Pretend like that never happened...
The Crew Patch from Challenger..Link
The Artic front lead edge on radar..heading into US..Link
I didn't work on the Space Shuttle, but I did on the Gemini and Apollo projects. The O-ring failed because it was cut during installation. Something designed to handle liquid oxygen and hydrogen is not going to fail due to cold weather.
The SRB does not use Liquid fuel ..It was the failure of the PRIMARY o-ring..from the cold..and then a Burn thru of the Secondary O-ring..that caused a flame to pentrate the Et and then ignite and explode the Vehicle.
Goof off that is something that has rattled around my brain since the tragedy....
If these o-rings were designed to contain liquid oxygen & such, it seems that they would withstand EXTREME temperatures. Seems that that would far exceed the temp. of that tragic day. Your explanation seems to "fit" a litlle better..... Big space fan here BTW!!!!
hmmmm goood point about SRB....... But it still seems that these rings would be able to withstand extreme temps. My opinion anyways
Thats an incorrect statement..The Liquid Engines on the Orbiter did not fail..heres the REport...LOLLink
well im going to have to go with the weather theory because this is a weather blog, lol!!
Heres the actual cause..that led to the SRB redeign...Link
Ice on the pad that morning in 86...BrrrrrLink
hey patrap..... where's the front that was in houston...there was two inch hail in far west Texas
time to put the ol' canopy up I guess
Hunker down rick..itsa coming..Suggest Taking Beer Hostages..just in Case...
THIS JUST IN

Tropical storm/Hurricae Landfall (P)

Gulf Coast Areas: 15%

Florida's peninsula: 40%


N. East Coast: 20%

Mid-Atlantic: 25%
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 10:50 PM GMT on October 10, 2006.

well im going to have to go with the weather theory because this is a weather blog, lol!!


LOL that's right about this blog... YUP it was that weather that brought it down LOL
here is the real comment:

I didn't work on the Space Shuttle, but I did on the Gemini and Apollo projects. The O-ring failed because it was cut during installation. Something designed to handle liquid oxygen and hydrogen is not going to fail due to cold weather.
Posted By: Ron5244 at 5:59 PM CDT on October 10, 2006.

THIS JUST IN

Tropical storm/Hurricae Landfall (P)
Gulf Coast Areas: 15%
Florida's peninsula: 40%
N. East Coast: 20%
Mid-Atlantic: 25%


Do you really mean this?

Tropical storm/Hurricae Landfall (P)
Gulf Coast Areas: 0%
Florida's peninsula: 0%
N. East Coast: 0%
Mid-Atlantic: 0%

Or, is that for next year?
No, its for this year.
Absolutely not, WPB.

Those are very reasonable probs.

Thats IF a storm does form, STL.

Nice try though.
Well Patrip that is a great link about the technical cause of the accident. and it is true.. Politics also were equally important regarding the cause of the accident..
And here it is..if you must..Link
Was on active duty in Quantico..Reagan was to make State of the Union that Night
..and I believe were talking the same lingual code on that Polaris..I hear ya.
troll alert, ignore him and he shall go away
Troll investLink
Better invest..LOLLink
Indeed. I was there. watched it. the coldest day in Fla in 20 years. Cant blame it on Reagon however there were intimidating managers that did not listen to thier engineers.
Potential WU trolls waiting for JOB interview..Link
..Boijsoly..Told them..but..well..we all know how that day went..was so sad.And cold..
wow! patrap! lol!
Getting a little Bubbley @ the mouth of the Carrib! "To Form or Not To Form" That is the question!
Getting breezy outside..Link
lol patrap wow you are fast.

Board up, WPB!

GulfChad is a new name on here. Could it be StormTop's alter ego? The report did say weather was one of several factors that could have caused the failure. At the altitude where it occurred, I would think the outside temperature would already have been much colder than anything it saw on the pad and should have been designed to allow for that.
OMG that Moron model at least misses Cape Canaveral...........
Listeen to MEEE.Now..I vill Freese..All you Uman Beens...I am Mr. Freezze..Link
Board up? How about pack up lol!
lol!!
YOU are all kind of funny guys! lol good thing we dont have to worry much about the local weather today. ;-)
For future reference Ron! How about pointing that thing the other way.
Texas storm reports todayLinkLink
Pacific HLinkawaii Invest..Gone..over..poof!..
The GFDL still forecasts development, although now delayed (it also does not track it properly, so it likely also does not develop it properly).
I tell ya what!

<~~ on the fence about CATL


evening all..... season growing very near an end, if not already....

seems we have some "disturbed" weather near the islands......
i saw that image ron, lol, and a while back at 2am, i was lurking and you posted one right over my house!
"Posted By: thelmores at 7:47 PM EDT on October 10, 2006.

seems we have some "disturbed" weather near the islands......"

We have also had our share of disturbed bloggers. Have to admit they were much more entertaining than the weather. LOL
see y'all later
306. SLU
Invest 90L later tonight? .... anyone?

I can see a circulation near 12.9n 56.2w near the deep convection but i'm not sure if it's at the surface or in the mid-levels.
307. SLU
YEP!

the NAVY site has just upgraded the wave to INVEST 90L!

more info to come .....
Which Navy site are you at lol?
I will answer that! The one I just refreshed, lol.
311. SLU
lol
312. SLU
invest 90L 12.8n 57.5w , 20kts

reasonably close to my estimate of 12.9n 56.2w
Sure as a chitty twister...it is now on the Navy weather site as 90L...season's not over yet STORMPOT!
Mountain of Shear ahead!

I am just interested to see where the invest models take it, lol! GFS shows whatever going North of the islands, Sure Death!
Hmmm... Wind shear is pretty much nonexistant where 90L is...

Pretty deep convection more concentrated around the center! Seeing greys popping up!
Where it is and where it is going! Hence the Ahead Comment!
Invest 90L:

This is a bigger punch and WILL win..come Thurs-FridayLink
C
321. SLU
if 90L develops into anything it will likely be a very short-lived tropical cyclone if the weather pattern in the Western Atlantic doesnt change.
the runs for 90L are in we need to watch this 90L
lol
It looks like 90L may live longer if it follows the XTRAP model...

Notice something wrong with the above? LOL!
This guy is Feeling it..Link
no wobbles in that Xtrap..Model,.Snickers..Ackk..Giggle,,shhhh!
Xtrap points.. West
guys 90l isnt a threat to any land lookLink
my bad is wrong
Posted By: sarepa at 7:52 PM CDT on October 10, 2006.

guys 90l isnt a threat to any land lookLink


Ummm... Why are the points labled 03/00, 03/06, and 03/12z? Today is the 10th, not the 3rd and I suspect that that is not the current 90L; first, 90L is much futher west; in fact, 90L is already past the 120 hour forecast pooint on that map (currently at 12.9N, 57,5W)!
Forget about the above... although I knew that it was wrong right away and it was for some past storm.
..there is a House...In New Orleans..They Call...The Superdome..And its been the ruin..a many poor boy..and God..I know..Im..one...
michel my wrong
..FAll ..is Coming..The Fall..is Coming.!...
.See Gentilly..and Lakeview...The crescent City ..Right in front of You..Birds sang in Broken trees...The coming home to New ORleans..Lower Ninth will rise again..Above the waters of Lake Pontchatrain...See the Bird with the Leaf in Her Mouth...After the Flood..All the Colors came Out!.....
Patrap, will start sending photos tommorow left the disk on my desk. sorry
.It was A Beautiful Day!.......dont let it get away!.......
I think the old map was for Florence; NRL lists Florence as Invest 90L on September 3rd.
The locals running story on PBS..awesome..simply awesome sandcrab...views fromVenice & St Bernard
..19ft water rise in 40minutes..was awesome
Patrap gonna send ya some other photos be back in a bit
im seeing circulation at 12N 55W
90L = Things that make you go Hummmmmm!
That would have a chance if it was August or September..but it still has good overall Invest look..
OK sand..
think it can survive the 20knots in the North Caribbean?
Sundays Superdome storm with Excellent Audio..Link
look at the big maP! it shows its objective projected pathLinkLink
nothing but an Azores swirlie..in 6 days
hhhmm... need to go chill down the the restless troups before the battle...heard the blow is about to baton rouge.... pat..got your straps tight?