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Harsh winter weather continues in Europe; rare snowstorm hits Libya

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:57 PM GMT on February 07, 2012

Europe's winter onslaught continues unabated this week, with very cold temperatures and heavy snows over much of the continent. Yesterday, a rare snow storm hit North Africa, bringing 2 - 3 inches of snow to Tripoli, Libya. It was the first snow in Tripoli since at least 2005, and may be the heaviest snow the Libyan capital has seen since February 6, 1956. Across Europe, at least 250 deaths have been blamed on the winter weather since the cold spell began on January 26. Hardest hit has been Ukraine, with 135 deaths--mostly of homeless people. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, the current cold snap is the most severe for Europe since February 1991.


Figure 1. The scene in Tripoli, Libya, on February 6, 2012, after a rare snowstorm. Image credit: libyall.com.

Unusual jet stream kink causing Europe's harsh winter weather
The reason for the exceptionally cold and snowy winter weather in Europe lies in the behavior of the jet stream. The jet stream--the band of strong west-to-east blowing upper-level winds that circles the globe at mid-latitudes--acts as the dividing line between cold, polar air to the north, and warmer subtropical air to the south. On average, the jet blows straight west to east. But this winter, the jet has had a highly convoluted shape, with unusually large excursions to the north and south. When the jet bulges southwards, it allows cold air to spill in behind it, and that is what has happened to Europe over the past two weeks. The jet often gets "stuck" in one of these highly convoluted shapes, allowing a persistent period of extreme weather to occur. The latest predictions from the GFS and ECMWF models show the unusual jet stream pattern over Europe persisting for at least another week.


Figure 2. The jet stream pattern over Europe shows that the jet is taking a major dive southwards across France and into North Africa, keeping almost all of Europe on the cold (north) side of the jet.

The AO and NAO
A good measure of the tendency of the jet to form major bulges in winter is the Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index, which has ranged between -1 and -3 over the past two weeks. A strongly negative AO Index like this means the winds of the jet are relatively weak, allowing it to sag southwards over Europe and allow cold air to plunge southwards behind it. Usually, a negative AO also means cold winter weather over North America, but not this winter. In North America, we're better off paying attention to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index, which we can think of as the Northern Atlantic portion of the AO. Ordinarily, the AO and NAO are in phase during winter (about 80 - 90% of the time), meaning that Europe and North America experience similar winter weather. However, over the past two weeks, the NAO has been positive while the AO has been negative. The positive NAO means that jet stream winds have been strong over North America and the North Atlantic, keeping cold air bottled up to the north over Canada and the Arctic. This pattern is predicted to persist for at least another week. We've seen many record extremes of both the positive and negative phase of the AO since 2006; see that latest post by Andrew Freedman of climatecentral.org to learn more.

Jeff Masters
Snow In Rome
Snow In Rome
A view of Rome: the Stadio Olimpico
Paris Snow
Paris Snow
First snow of the winter stops public transport.
Snow
Snow
Croatia - Dalmatia - Trogir cyclone Gabor, snow in Dalmatia, frozen streets....sounds impossible but it happened ! Snow is still present. In this part of world this is phenomena
Snow - cyclone Gabor
Snow - cyclone Gabor
Croatia - Dalmatia - Trogir Riva - corso in blizzard

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I totally confirm: IT IS COLD HERE (Germany)

This morning it warmed to 4 degrees F, and light snow moved in.
So while US having above average, Europe getting extreme cold weather....Good post Dr Masters.
Jasmine is now a mid-tier category 4 SS scale cyclone. Looks like closest approach to land, and possible landfall, in about 18 hours or so.

It must have a bit of shear though. Eye isn't very impressive for a cat 4.

How's that for RI?

It gained 70mph in wind speeds in less than 12 hours.
Tripoli, Libya now has more snow than Washington, DC.... I would ask what is wrong with this weather, but I already am fairly certain of the answer.
Sorry But I don't understand this.... the Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index, which has ranged between -1 and -3 over the past two weeks. A strongly negative AO Index like this means the winds of the jet are relatively weak,
Is -1 to -3 strong or weak?
Quoting AussieStorm:
Sorry But I don't understand this.... the Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index, which has ranged between -1 and -3 over the past two weeks. A strongly negative AO Index like this means the winds of the jet are relatively weak,
Is -1 to -3 strong or weak?


-3 is strong, -1 is probably moderately-weak.

Dr. Masters correct me if im wrong please:)
Quoting SPLbeater:


-3 is strong, -1 is probably moderately-weak.

Dr. Masters correct me if im wrong please:)

I am relating it to SOI and IOD.

SOI of plus 30 is very strong




Or am I wrong to do that
Looks like tropical system in the EPAC off Mexico
Quoting AussieStorm:
Sorry But I don't understand this.... the Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index, which has ranged between -1 and -3 over the past two weeks. A strongly negative AO Index like this means the winds of the jet are relatively weak,
Is -1 to -3 strong or weak?
i am just scratching the surface of this stuff myself, but reading Dr. M's context from that paragraph it would seem a strong negative index. With a weakening of the jet in Europe by the AO numbers, and the stronger positive NAO giving a stronger jet stream in North America, it sort of makes sense to me that Europe's jet stream would buckle and form such an extreme dip south... but i really have no expertise in the oscillation index behaviors.
Currently in the SPAC, Suprised DR Masters didn't mention these 2.


Click image for loop
Uploaded by Travels411 on Feb 5, 2012

We traveled to St. Peters Basilica to find it had snowed all day and night. Folks had built snowmen all over and were snow fighting too.



10:

Yeah, on Rainbow it looks even more organized and symetrical than the AVN graphic.

If a storm intensified that rapidly in the GOMEX I think everyone would soil themselves, especially if it was moving 20mph forward speed.

Go to bed thinking it's a cat 1, and then wake up and it's a strong cat 4.

I don't even think anything in 2005 did that, except maybe Wilma, just maybe. Would have to look it up though.
It was -14 celcius on Lavaz yesterday. But considering this season has been like a long boring three month November, it was nice. That's Northern Italy.
Quoting RTSplayer:
10:

Yeah, on Rainbow it looks even more organized and symetrical than the AVN graphic.

If a storm intensified that rapidly in the GOMEX I think everyone would soil themselves, especially if it was moving 20mph forward speed.

Go to bed thinking it's a cat 1, and then wake up and it's a strong cat 4.

I don't even think anything in 2005 did that, except maybe Wilma, just maybe. Would have to look it up though.

Conditions are almost perfect.
Deep-Layer Wind Shear - East Australia Region


24hr Shear Tendency - East Australia Region


SST's
"Unusual jet stream kink"
Jeff, when are you going to talk about weather modification? It's science, not gossip. There is a whole college dedicated to it in Dakota. Jets fly over burning aluminum oxide blended jet fuel, leaving amazing contrails that block the sun, or they burn high sulphur fuel that makes fine particles that fall through the atmosphere in front of storms and the fine particulates prevent rain. Then they seed the clouds with silver iodide when they get over the desert. Water companies figure they pay $11 an acre foot for rain this way. That acre foot is worth millions in a city like LA.
These kinks in the jet stream are man made. That's getting more obvious all the time.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Currently in the SPAC, Suprised DR Masters didn't mention these 2.


Click image for loop


What? Do you think this is a tropical weather blog or something?
Quoting greentortuloni:
It was -14 celcius on Lavaz� yesterday. But considering this season has been like a long boring three month November, it was nice. That's Northern Italy.
Have not seen you in a while good morning.
To post # 328 on the last blog..--Great post R.E. I got to check out the drought conditions for the U.S.in a minute.
"America: Energy Self-Sufficient By 2030."

Link

Get ready for more "fracking" earthquakes!
Quoting hydrus:
Have not seen you in a while good morning.


Hey!

I lurk a lot during hurricane season.. but I don't post much here... lacking anything really new to say.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Sorry But I don't understand this.... the Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index, which has ranged between -1 and -3 over the past two weeks. A strongly negative AO Index like this means the winds of the jet are relatively weak,
Is -1 to -3 strong or weak?


It is confusing, but the AO can be strongly negative (weak jet stream winds) or strongly positive (strong jet stream winds.) We've seen many record extremes of both the positive and negative phase of the AO since 2006; see that latest post by Andrew Freedman of climatecentral.org.

Just in from NCDC:

The average contiguous U.S. temperature in January was 36.3 degrees F, 5.5 degrees F above the 1901-2000 long-term average — the fourth warmest January on record, and the warmest since 2006.

Jeff Masters
Quoting AussieStorm:

I am relating it to SOI and IOD.

SOI of plus 30 is very strong




Or am I wrong to do that


I was relating to the AO index here

Tripoli thundersnow!



Texas was the 2nd wettest state in the U.S. during January of a La Niña year! I bet that has never happened before.

Jeff Masters
Quoting JeffMasters:


Texas was the 2nd wettest state in the U.S. during January of a La Niña year! I bet that has never happened before.

Jeff Masters
looks like a pretty accurate IQ chart as well :P
Quoting JNCali:
looks like a pretty accurate IQ chart as well :P

Ouch!

LOL
Quoting JNCali:
looks like a pretty accurate IQ chart as well :P


Your blog...amature hour? Really?
Quoting JeffMasters:

Texas was the 2nd wettest state in the U.S. during January of a La Niña year! I bet that has never happened before.

Jeff Masters

I have to say we NEEDED it. I would welcome more above average, record-setting rain. We've already started February well.
Quoting lhwhelk:

I have to say we NEEDED it. I would welcome more above average, record-setting rain. We've already started February well.


It's not that we welcome more above average rain....we HAVE to have that.... in order to survive and get back to normal levels on reservoirs and lakes and vegetation and trees back to health.

Dying crapemrytles in foreground and background with dead grass back in summer of 11'



These crapemrytles are alive and well, they were losing leaves to protect themselves as I found out later
Some good rains have not removed the drought problem from Texas but sure have helped. From the Houston-Galveston NWS Drought Information Statement:

THE DROUGHT MONITOR NOW SHOWS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...OR ROUGHLY EAST OF A TRINITY TO HOUSTON TO SARGENT LINE NOW IN D-2 STATUS (SEVERE DROUGHT) WHICH IS QUITE AN IMPROVEMENT FROM JUST A FEW MONTHS AGO. MOST WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN LIFTED IN THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH LONG TERM DROUGHT INDICATORS ARE STILL RATHER NEGATIVE...THE RECENT RAIN HAS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT SHORT TERM IMPROVEMENT.

AREAS WEST OF A CROCKETT TO HUNTSVILLE TO NAVASOTA TO PALACIOS LINE ARE STILL DESIGNATED AS D-4 OR EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED SOME RAIN...IT HAS NOT BEEN OF THE MAGNITUDE NECESSARY TO TO RECHARGE AREA RESERVOIRS. COLLEGE STATION...BRENHAM AND MADISONVILLE STILL SUFFERED A RAINFALL DEFICIT FOR JANUARY.

LOOKING BACK...THE DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWED 70 PERCENT OF THE STATE CLASSIFIED AS D-4 ON OCTOBER 25 2011. CURRENTLY...27 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS D-4. ALMOST 91 PERCENT OF THE STATE WAS CLASSIFIED AS D-3 OR D-4 BACK ON OCTOBER 25TH. ROUGHLY 60 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS D-3 OR D-4. THERE IS STILL A LONG ROAD AHEAD TO RETURN TO NORMAL BUT EVERY JOURNEY BEGINS WITH THAT FIRST STEP. NONE OF THE STATE WAS CLASSIFIED AS D-4 IN JANUARY OF 2011.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IN DECEMBER AND JANUARY HAS HELPED TO RECHARGE AREA RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS. SINCE DECEMBER 1ST...HOUSTON HAS RECEIVED OVER 9 INCHES OF RAIN AND COLLEGE STATION RECEIVED GREATER THAN SIX INCHES OF RAIN. THE CAPACITY AT LAKE HOUSTON AND LAKE LIVINGSTON ARE BOTH AT 100 PERCENT AND LAKE CONROE HAS EXPERIENCED A RISE TO AROUND 71 PERCENT CAPACITY. THE WESTERN THIRD OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS NOT FARED AS WELL AS POINTS TO THE EAST AND LAKE SOMERVILLE AND LAKE TEXANA STILL SHOW CAPACITIES NEAR 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
From the Drought Statement:

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFICATIONS

BELOW IS A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF EACH DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION:

D4 EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT - EXCEPTIONAL OR WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSS A SHORTAGE OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS AND STREAMS CREATING A WATER EMERGENCY.

D3 EXTREME DROUGHT - MAJOR CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES AND RESTRICTIONS.

D2 SEVERE DROUGHT - CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES LIKELY. SOME WATER SHORTAGES COMMON AND SOME WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D1 MODERATE DROUGHT - SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES. RESERVOIRS OR WELLS LOW. VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS IMPOSED.

D0 ABNORMALLY DRY - SHORT TERM DRYNESS. PLANT GROWTH SLOWS. MINOR WATER DEFICITS.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Conditions are almost perfect.
Deep-Layer Wind Shear - East Australia Region


24hr Shear Tendency - East Australia Region


SST's


Those SST's seem quite cool for middle of summer? You guys must be having a cool summer there in Syndney.
Quoting JeffMasters:


Texas was the 2nd wettest state in the U.S. during January of a La Niña year! I bet that has never happened before.

Jeff Masters


Hi Doc talk about unusual. This looks more like El-nino.

GFS precip acumm.
Quoting JNCali:
looks like a pretty accurate IQ chart as well :P
So you are saying the whole country is below average? 'Splains a lot!
Hello from deeply frozen Germany! And thanks to Dr. Masters for covering it.

New report in "Spiegel" from today with a collection of photos.

02/07/2012
Deadly Cold Snap
European Deep Freeze Refuses to Relent


During daytime (now it's dark) you may watch the dutch people happily and speedily skating on their frozen canals:
http://www.omropfryslan.nl/alvestedentochtwebcam

And don't fail to have a look at those amazing pics from southern (!) Italy:

http://www.wzforum.de/forum2/read.php?32,2365927
yesh i know the gulf stream tends to keep western europe milder than other parts of the eurasian cont. but think about it, although the jet is dipping down into europe the latitude of most of europe is equal to or higher than maine, usa. It's not that hard to get a arctic outbreak that far north. It happens every year just not for this long of a period.......and everybody is freaking out about no winter in united states. Although its been warmer than the past 2 winters it has been closer to average!
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Hi Doc talk about unusual. This looks more like El-nino.

GFS precip acumm.


2-4 inches across Florida? Very unusual. Got 2 inches yesterday in S FL from that disturbance alone.
Quoting wxmod:
"Unusual jet stream kink"
Jeff, when are you going to talk about weather modification? It's science, not gossip. There is a whole college dedicated to it in Dakota. Jets fly over burning aluminum oxide blended jet fuel, leaving amazing contrails that block the sun, or they burn high sulphur fuel that makes fine particles that fall through the atmosphere in front of storms and the fine particulates prevent rain. Then they seed the clouds with silver iodide when they get over the desert. Water companies figure they pay $11 an acre foot for rain this way. That acre foot is worth millions in a city like LA.
These kinks in the jet stream are man made. That's getting more obvious all the time.


Weather modification can lead to many unintended consequences, if it works at all. As it is, we're doing a pretty good job testing out global weather modification and it seems that a lot of companies want to continue this experiment first. :P
Svalbard Airport, Norway, reached 39 today, another record high for the city. That may seem chilly, but only until you realize that Svalbard lies inside the Arctic Circle several hundred miles north of the coast of mainland Norway. The sun isn't yet shining there, though at this time of year there are five hours of twilight. The average high for this date is 15; temperatures don't usually "warm" to the upper 30s until mid-June. The forecast calls for the same temperature tomorrow, though with a chance of rain.

Rain. Inside the Arctic Circle at 78 degrees north. During the first third of February. When the sun hasn't risen in months. Nope, nothing wrong here. ;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Svalbard Airport, Norway, reached 39 today, another record high for the city. That may seem chilly, but only until you realize that Svalbard lies inside the Arctic Circle several hundred miles north of the coast of mainland Norway. The sun isn't yet shining there, though at this time of year there are five hours of twilight. The average high for this date is 15; temperatures don't usually "warm" to the upper 30s until mid-June. The forecast calls for the same temperature tomorrow, though with a chance of rain.

Rain. Inside the Arctic Circle at 78 degrees north. During the first third of February. When the sun hasn't risen in months. Nope, nothing wrong here. ;-)


Just jet stream pattern change, happens time to time, dips on one side of the world, and expands northward on the other, nothing to see here...move along
Whats this off the E coast...
We're entering the last weeks of the annual freeze cycle with little ice in the Barentsz and Kara Seas. If we don't experience significant freezing soon in about a month the Sun will start hitting open waters and warming them. Months earlier than normal.

This will make for some nasty conditions regarding ice retention. Central Arctic ice won't have to move far before it hits warm, melting water and the normal choke point to the Atlantic will be largely open. Central Arctic will start melting very early and its movement into the warm Atlantic will not be restricted.

The thinner parts of the pack will likely be melted before reaching the Fram Straights and thicker chunks will be transported through in record amounts.




Quoting SPLbeater:
Whats this off the E coast...



That is a really good question!!!!
Quoting BobWallace:
We're entering the last weeks of the annual freeze cycle with little ice in the Barentsz and Kara Seas. If we don't experience significant freezing soon in about a month the Sun will start hitting open waters and warming them. Months earlier than normal.

This will make for some nasty conditions regarding ice retention. Central Arctic ice won't have to move far before it hits warm, melting water and the normal choke point to the Atlantic will be largely open. Central Arctic will start melting very early and its movement into the warm Atlantic will not be restricted.

The thinner parts of the pack will likely be melted before reaching the Fram Straights and thicker chunks will be transported through in record amounts.






Yea, that's called spring time in March, which correlates with the spring solstice.

The earth will explode on Dec. 21st of this year
Quoting presslord:



That is a really good question!!!!


Carolinas should be watching
#15

Aluminum oxide is aluminum that has already been burned. For what it is worth, from Yahoo Answers:

"Resolved Question

"What form of aluminum is used in jet fuel?
aluminum sprayed into the atmosphere attracts water and forms chemtrails. What is the source, form and function of the aluminum compounds? It may have to do with geo-engineering."

"Best Answer - Chosen by Voters
Aluminum is not used in jet fuel, such as is used in turbojet aircraft. Jet fuel is simply a hydrocarbon blend, and the exhaust (water vapor, CO2 etc.) forms contrails in the right conditions with no help from aluminum.

"Aluminum is, however, used in solid rocket fuel, like the solid boosters used on the space shuttle etc.

"The solid fuels are composed mainly of ammonium perchlorate (oxidizer), a polymer (organic fuel), and aluminum metal powder (metallic fuel). The aluminum is burned to aluminum oxide, Al2O3, which is a white solid. Its fine particles in the exhaust do serve as nuclei for the condensation of water vapor (both atmospheric and from combustion products). Both the solid oxide and the condensed water contribute to the pronounced white trail of such a rocket.

"No connection to geo-engineering here that I can see, though."
48. Inyo
Quoting wxmod:
"Unusual jet stream kink"
Jeff, when are you going to talk about weather modification? It's science, not gossip. There is a whole college dedicated to it in Dakota. Jets fly over burning aluminum oxide blended jet fuel, leaving amazing contrails that block the sun, or they burn high sulphur fuel that makes fine particles that fall through the atmosphere in front of storms and the fine particulates prevent rain. Then they seed the clouds with silver iodide when they get over the desert. Water companies figure they pay $11 an acre foot for rain this way. That acre foot is worth millions in a city like LA.
These kinks in the jet stream are man made. That's getting more obvious all the time.


If LA is paying the Reptoids (or whoever) to use magical chemtrails to cause this weather pattern, they need to demand their money back. Nonwithstanding some rain and mountain snow today... CA is as dry as it's been in a long time. The rainy season has been a near-failure there.
Quoting presslord:


I see beautiful California fruit in the contrail
Moist looking ball ya got there...b-line for FL.



Flash Loop
Quoting Neapolitan:
Svalbard Airport, Norway, reached 39 today, another record high for the city. That may seem chilly, but only until you realize that Svalbard lies inside the Arctic Circle several hundred miles north of the coast of mainland Norway. The sun isn't yet shining there, though at this time of year there are five hours of twilight. The average high for this date is 15; temperatures don't usually "warm" to the upper 30s until mid-June. The forecast calls for the same temperature tomorrow, though with a chance of rain.

Rain. Inside the Arctic Circle at 78 degrees north. During the first third of February. When the sun hasn't risen in months. Nope, nothing wrong here. ;-)


So now you're an expert on Norway's weather? :):):)
Quoting Grothar:


So now you're an expert on Norway's weather? :):):)
I am...its cold....a lot...:0
Quoting SPLbeater:
Whats this off the E coast...
water.
I read this on the internet...so it must be true
Chemtrails, coming from "chemical trails" in the same fashion that contrail comes from "condensation trail" is a term coined to suggest that contrails are formed by something other than a natural process of engine exhaust hitting the cold air in the atmosphere. Proponents of chemtrails characterize these chemical trails as streams that persist for hours, and by their criss-crossing, grid-like patterns, or parallel stripes which eventually blend to form large clouds. Proponents view the presence of visible color spectra in the streams, unusual concentrations of sky tracks in a single area, or lingering tracks left by unmarked or military airplanes flying in atypical altitudes or locations as markers of chemtrails.
Quoting presslord:
I read this on the internet...so it must be true
Chemtrails, coming from "chemical trails" in the same fashion that contrail comes from "condensation trail" is a term coined to suggest that contrails are formed by something other than a natural process of engine exhaust hitting the cold air in the atmosphere. Proponents of chemtrails characterize these chemical trails as streams that persist for hours, and by their criss-crossing, grid-like patterns, or parallel stripes which eventually blend to form large clouds. Proponents view the presence of visible color spectra in the streams, unusual concentrations of sky tracks in a single area, or lingering tracks left by unmarked or military airplanes flying in atypical altitudes or locations as markers of chemtrails.


The internet is the new bible, everything on it is true.....

Sarcasm flag: Overload ON
Nea likes to get his facts off the internet....
Quoting Patrap:
Uploaded by Travels411 on Feb 5, 2012

We traveled to St. Peters Basilica to find it had snowed all day and night. Folks had built snowmen all over and were snow fighting too.





Gee, not very Christian having snowball fights at the Vatican.
Quoting KeysieLife:
Moist looking ball ya got there...
... Not an average start to a definately not an average year...
Quoting Neapolitan:
Svalbard Airport, Norway, reached 39 today, another record high for the city. That may seem chilly, but only until you realize that Svalbard lies inside the Arctic Circle several hundred miles north of the coast of mainland Norway. The sun isn't yet shining there, though at this time of year there are five hours of twilight. The average high for this date is 15; temperatures don't usually "warm" to the upper 30s until mid-June. The forecast calls for the same temperature tomorrow, though with a chance of rain.

Rain. Inside the Arctic Circle at 78 degrees north. During the first third of February. When the sun hasn't risen in months. Nope, nothing wrong here. ;-)


Nope.

Snowed in the blue mountains in AUS last month too, there summer.
Quoting presslord:






By Peter Simpson, Beijing

3:05PM GMT 05 Jan 2012


Beijing said it has deep concerns over the EU's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), which came into force on New year's Day and demands all airlines pay a green duty to offset carbon emissions.

"China opposes the European Union's unilateral legislation. China has expressed to the EU our deep concern and opposition many times on a bilateral level," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said.

Mr Hong urged Brussels to hold urgent talks with Beijing over the controversial carbon allowance scheme, which has also met strong opposition from other countries.

The China Air Transport Association was more militant in its response – declaring its members would not co-operate with the ETS and refuse to pay the added tax.

It also said it would seek legal action and try and attempt to form an international alliance to scrap the scheme.

Link
Quoting presslord:
I read this on the internet...so it must be true
Chemtrails, coming from "chemical trails" in the same fashion that contrail comes from "condensation trail" is a term coined to suggest that contrails are formed by something other than a natural process of engine exhaust hitting the cold air in the atmosphere. Proponents of chemtrails characterize these chemical trails as streams that persist for hours, and by their criss-crossing, grid-like patterns, or parallel stripes which eventually blend to form large clouds. Proponents view the presence of visible color spectra in the streams, unusual concentrations of sky tracks in a single area, or lingering tracks left by unmarked or military airplanes flying in atypical altitudes or locations as markers of chemtrails.


Those chemtrails can lead to "Chembows"..which is the name for the visible color spectra in the streams. Here's One I captured.. The planes came along & laid the trails that made the wispy clouds then others came & laid a line above. Within a few minutes something would fall into & interact with the original contrail cloud & it would light up like a rainbow. Saw this at least a dozen times that day in different clouds.


There is also Traildogs..sundogs that are born of chemtrail clouds. Notice the plane in there who's trail doesn't turn into clouds..

TEPCO injects more water into reactor
The Yomiuri Shimbun


Tokyo Electric Power Co. has increased the amount of water being injected into the No. 2 reactor at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant because the temperature at the base of the pressure vessel has been rising, the company said Tuesday.

The 13.5 tons being injected each hour to cool the reactor--an increase of three tons--is the most since the government announced the crippled plant had achieved a stable state of cold shutdown in December.

According to the utility, after increasing the amount of water being injected at 4:30 a.m. Tuesday, the temperature at the vessel's base has been fairly constant: It was 72.2 C at 5 a.m. and 69 C at 10 a.m. The temperature at the base of the vessel had been 45 C as of Jan. 27, but began rising earlier this month. TEPCO is investigating the cause of the higher temperature.

(Feb. 8, 2012)

Reactor 3 Hydrogen Explosion last year

-___- I live in new york, and in 2012 we've only had 3 more inches of snow than Tripoli has had... all of which melted away over two weeks ago. got a feeling that there's a lot of people in that boat this winter.
I have a question.
I'm looking at college majors, and i was wondering if there is a difference between majoring in atmospheric sciences and majoring in meteorology. Or are they the same thing?
Quoting HurrikanEB:
I have a question.
I'm looking at college majors, and i was wondering if there is a difference between majoring in atmospheric sciences and majoring in meteorology. Or are they the same thing?


Angela Fritz would be a good person for you to ask...
Quoting Skyepony:


Those chemtrails can lead to "Chembows"..which is the name for the visible color spectra in the streams. Here's One I captured.. The planes came along & laid the trails that made the wispy clouds then others came & laid a line above. Within a few minutes something would fall into & interact with the original contrail cloud & it would light up like a rainbow. Saw this at least a dozen times that day in different clouds.


There is also Traildogs..sundogs that are born of chemtrail clouds. Notice the plane in there who's trail doesn't turn into clouds..



What do you make of it all Sky?
Some theorist believe the Geo Engineering thru Chem trails is a last ditch effort to stem the Damage the real Terra forming were doing by burning Fossil Fuels.



So,the entities that make 111 Billion between 5 Companies last 3 Quarters can do them kinda things.

But, there's a twist to the Powers in control behind the Veil. And they fear it more than any poking into Chem trails.

..webbot report in brief

Tension Language expands greatly and peaks with some Calamity or Novelty Event March 2-9.



another string delivers this,

As modelspace is progressed into 2012, the [secrets revealed] meta data layer jumps up to dominance in the first 3/three months of the year to reach its initial peak of activity on March 2, 2012, though the meta data layer persists through 2013. During this period of [secrets revealed], we note that [energy (unleashing/unconstrained)] is forming rapidly in many different entities and it moves into position as the dominating meta data archetype by March 9, 2012.




Quoting presslord:


Angela Fritz would be a good person for you to ask...


I believe she has a bachelors in one and masters in the other...although one of them came from Georgia Tech...which really shouldn't count...
The Large Hadron Collider takes us one big step closer to finding the Higgs boson

Back in December, CERN physicists announced that they had probably spotted the long-awaited Higgs boson - at least, there was a 99.7% chance that they had. Now they've examined the data again, and it's looking even better for the Higgs.
Top image: Lightmash on Flickr.

The December results came from the Large Hadron Collider's two independent experiments, ATLAS and CMS. While both potential sightings were promising, neither met the accepted standard for an actual discovery, which is known as a 5-sigma result. A 5-sigma result means there's only about a 1 in a million chance that the finding is the result of error or random fluctuation in the data.

All the individual results hovered around the 2-sigma level, which together combined for a joint 3-sigma result. That meant there was only a 0.3% chance the results were in error. That's impressive, but it's well short of 1 in a million. Well, we can now close that gap quite a bit, as physicists on the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) have reexamined their original results and upgraded their Higgs signal from 2.5-sigma to 3.1-sigma.

When combined with the ATLAS results, that gets us all the way to 4.3-sigma, which means there's a 99.996% of the Higgs really being there in the data. That's still short of the 5-sigma standard, but it's a lot closer than where we thought we were in December. With the Large Hadron Collider due to go back online this spring, there's a very real chance that 2012 could end up being the year of the Higgs.

Via Scientific American. Image by Michael Hoch, © CERN.
Quoting HurrikanEB:
I have a question.
I'm looking at college majors, and i was wondering if there is a difference between majoring in atmospheric sciences and majoring in meteorology. Or are they the same thing?


same thing at least where i went
Quoting HurrikanEB:
I have a question.
I'm looking at college majors, and i was wondering if there is a difference between majoring in atmospheric sciences and majoring in meteorology. Or are they the same thing?

Same.
76. Inyo
people, i was being sarcastic about chemtrails. They are a silly conspiracy theory akin with most other Internet conspiracy nonsense. Contrails are made of ice crystals, which is why you can see 'rainbows' in them as well as in other ice crystal clouds.

The government DOES take part in conspiracies to dump toxins in the air and hide the effects, the toxins also affect the weather and climate and cause sickness and cancer and premature death. Unfortunately, these chemicals are released as a byproduct of burning fossil fuels, not some evil global overlords dumping something in contrails. The conspiracy states that unlimited release of CO2 has no effect on climate, and many people here have bought into it.
Anyone actually read the original The Day After Tomorrow book? I read it today and it sounds a lot like what has been currently happening with the weather patterns and storms....



I would say meteorology is a sub discipline of atmospheric science...
Quoting bappit:
#15

Aluminum oxide is aluminum that has already been burned. For what it is worth, from Yahoo Answers:

"Resolved Question

"What form of aluminum is used in jet fuel?
aluminum sprayed into the atmosphere attracts water and forms chemtrails. What is the source, form and function of the aluminum compounds? It may have to do with geo-engineering."

"Best Answer - Chosen by Voters
Aluminum is not used in jet fuel, such as is used in turbojet aircraft. Jet fuel is simply a hydrocarbon blend, and the exhaust (water vapor, CO2 etc.) forms contrails in the right conditions with no help from aluminum.

"Aluminum is, however, used in solid rocket fuel, like the solid boosters used on the space shuttle etc.

"The solid fuels are composed mainly of ammonium perchlorate (oxidizer), a polymer (organic fuel), and aluminum metal powder (metallic fuel). The aluminum is burned to aluminum oxide, Al2O3, which is a white solid. Its fine particles in the exhaust do serve as nuclei for the condensation of water vapor (both atmospheric and from combustion products). Both the solid oxide and the condensed water contribute to the pronounced white trail of such a rocket.

"No connection to geo-engineering here that I can see, though."


This topic is well hidden on the web, as is all geoengineering and weather modification documentation



"Stratospheric Welsbach seeding for reduction of global warming"

"One proposed solution to the problem of global warming involves the seeding of the atmosphere with metallic particles. One technique proposed to seed the metallic particles was to add the tiny particles to the fuel of jet airliners, so that the particles would be emitted from the jet engine exhaust while the airliner was at its cruising altitude.

"Known refractory materials have a thermal emissivity function which is strongly wavelength dependent. For example, the materials may have high emissivity (and absorption) at the far infrared wavelengths, high emissivity in the visible wavelength range, and very low emissivity at intermediate wavelengths. If a material having those emissivity characteristics and a black body are exposed to IR energy of equal intensity, the selective thermal radiator will emit visible radiation with higher efficiency (if radiation cooling predominates), i.e., the selective thermal radiator will appear brighter than the black body. This effect is known as the Welsbach effect and is extensively used in commercial gas lantern mantles.


"A desired material for the stratospheric seeding has a reflection coefficient close to unity for near IR radiation, and a reflection coefficient close to zero (or emissity close to unity) for far IR radiation. ... Another class of materials having the desired property includes the oxides of metals. For example, aluminum oxide (Al 2 O 3 ) is one metal oxide suitable for the purpose and which is relatively inexpensive."


These are 1991 exerpts from:


http://www.freepatentsonline.com/5003186.html

Inventors: Chang; David B. (Tustin, CA), Shih; I-Fu (Los Alamitos, CA)
Assignee: Hughes Aircraft Company (Los Angeles, CA)
Well got started on my cold frame bed yesterday for my garden. Went to stick the shovel in the ground expecting it to be somewhat frozen and I was gonna just dig down a little to losen it up to warm up in the sun. Stuck my shovel in and I went all the way to the head of the shovel. Completely thawed out and soggy. This is during the beginning of February. Usually the UW extension doesn't advise people to start tilling until April to avoid damaging their soil because it is usually still thawing out in March. What a year this is gonna be....
So the E.U. is going to carbon tax all our airlines, which the U.S. government already subsidizes.

It's about sovereignty and the E.U. attempting to raise funds to cover the debts of some of their less productive members.

Greece? Heck, they go bankrupt and have a coup or some other financial or social calamity every generation or two. Just check some history in the past 2 centuries.

Anyway, it's a desperate attempt to raise funds by taxing everyone else in the world, since their own citizens are at the brink of open revolution at the mere mention of any more austerity measures.


This is the kind of stuff England used to do during the colonial period.

Unfortunately, stupid "Little" stuff like this has escalated and caused wars in the past.

Hopefully, that isn't the case this time around.
Hurricane Katrina satellite animation slowed and corrected using black/white infrared imagery.

Quoting Patrap: With the Large Hadron Collider due to go back online this spring, there's a very real chance that 2012 could end up being the year of the Higgs.


Or the year they finally smash an Atom and turn the Big Bang into a reality show...
There is a reason 2012 ends, because something BIG is going to happen
www.solarham.com

M-Class Solar Flare

Sunspot 1410 located in the northwest quadrant, produced a moderate solar flare, reaching M1.0 at 20:00 UTC Monday afternoon. The flare was about an hour long in duration. Presentation below.



Quoting Patrap:
The Large Hadron Collider takes us one big step closer to finding the Higgs boson

Back in December, CERN physicists announced that they had probably spotted the long-awaited Higgs boson - at least, there was a 99.7% chance that they had. Now they've examined the data again, and it's looking even better for the Higgs.
Top image: Lightmash on Flickr.

The December results came from the Large Hadron Collider's two independent experiments, ATLAS and CMS. While both potential sightings were promising, neither met the accepted standard for an actual discovery, which is known as a 5-sigma result. A 5-sigma result means there's only about a 1 in a million chance that the finding is the result of error or random fluctuation in the data.

All the individual results hovered around the 2-sigma level, which together combined for a joint 3-sigma result. That meant there was only a 0.3% chance the results were in error. That's impressive, but it's well short of 1 in a million. Well, we can now close that gap quite a bit, as physicists on the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) have reexamined their original results and upgraded their Higgs signal from 2.5-sigma to 3.1-sigma.

When combined with the ATLAS results, that gets us all the way to 4.3-sigma, which means there's a 99.996% of the Higgs really being there in the data. That's still short of the 5-sigma standard, but it's a lot closer than where we thought we were in December. With the Large Hadron Collider due to go back online this spring, there's a very real chance that 2012 could end up being the year of the Higgs.

Via Scientific American. Image by Michael Hoch, © CERN.


Funny thing is, even if they find it, it's not like it's a magic pill or anything.

It's not going to magically solve any major problems in cosmology regarding DM and DE, etc.

And also, just finding the Higgs, or a suspected higgs, doesn't mean you can easily study it or manipulate it to verify that it really is "the" Higgs.

Not to mention, particle collisions that actually produce the Higgs in nature probably only happen in the vicinity of black holes and neutron stars.


Why is it that a "fundamental" particle is only observed by a complicated, macroscopic machine?

Why is a "fundamental" particle produced by a collision in a non-fundamental machine in the first place?

The irony is the particle theory of matter was to explain macroscopic reality as a consequence of a more fundamental layer of reality, yet humans make these fundamental particles in a macroscopic collider.

Make sense?

Not at all.

Since when does secondary reality produce something more fundamental than itself?


NAM



GFS

Both now are in agreement that DC will get a period of moderate snow from 3-9 PM tomorrow. I think that we could actually see a surprise 2-4 inches out of this!!!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


NAM



GFS

Both now are in agreement that DC will get a period of moderate snow from 3-9 PM tomorrow. I think that we could actually see a surprise 2-4 inches out of this!!!

National Weather Service calling for <1".
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Katrina satellite animation slowed and corrected using black/white infrared imagery.


Any requests for storm animations? I can get imagery back to 2000.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Any suggestions for storms? I can go all the way back to 2000.


Do you have cyclone Monica, from the Southern Hemisphere, I think 2004 or maybe 2005 season?

I seem to have missed that one.
84 RitaEvac "There is a reason 2012 ends, because something BIG is going to happen"

2013? What's so hot about 2013? Or does this hafta do with the Return of Steve Jobs?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

National Weather Service calling for <1".


They haven't updated for the 18Z runs yet.... And it has been the trend for the last day now, yesterday morning the NWS was calling for rain with snow mixing in at the end.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Do you have cyclone Monica, from the Southern Hemisphere, I think 2004 or maybe 2005 season?

I seem to have missed that one.

Infrared (color) or Infrared (black and white)?
Quoting Grothar:
california is getting rain when they usually dont this time of year, folks on the nws were quite surprised at it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Infrared (color) or Infrared (black and white)?


i don't know, whatever looks best I guess.

maybe color.
Quoting RTSplayer:


i don't know, whatever looks best I guess.

maybe color.

Ok, give me like 10 minutes.
Jes cuz the headline reminded me that -40degreesCelsius is equal to -40degreesFahrenheit

Hope-filled enthusiasts sweeping the path clear for the Elfstedentocht; where ya gotta be able to skate ~200kilometres(~124miles) in under 7hours to be a contender.
Five minutes more tops...It's saving the animation and then posting it to YouTube.

This is the snow map that I just created after viewing the 18Z NAM and GFS runs for tomorrow afternoon.

hmmmmmm.....


Is Jasmine ANNULAR?!?! O.o
Quoting RTSplayer:


Funny thing is, even if they find it, it's not like it's a magic pill or anything.

It's not going to magically solve any major problems in cosmology regarding DM and DE, etc.

And also, just finding the Higgs, or a suspected higgs, doesn't mean you can easily study it or manipulate it to verify that it really is "the" Higgs.

Not to mention, particle collisions that actually produce the Higgs in nature probably only happen in the vicinity of black holes and neutron stars.


Why is it that a "fundamental" particle is only observed by a complicated, macroscopic machine?

Why is a "fundamental" particle produced by a collision in a non-fundamental machine in the first place?

The irony is the particle theory of matter was to explain macroscopic reality as a consequence of a more fundamental layer of reality, yet humans make these fundamental particles in a macroscopic collider.

Make sense?

Not at all.

Since when does secondary reality produce something more fundamental than itself?


From the wiki:

The existence of the Higgs boson is predicted by the Standard Model to explain how spontaneous breaking of electroweak symmetry (the Higgs mechanism) takes place in nature, which in turn explains why other elementary particles have mass.[Note 1] Its discovery would further validate the Standard Model as essentially correct, as it is the only elementary particle predicted by the Standard Model that has not yet been observed in particle physics experiments.[2] The Standard Model completely fixes the properties of the Higgs boson, except for its mass. It is expected to have no spin and no electric or colour charge, and it interacts with other particles through weak interaction and Yukawa interactions.

And how it relates to dark energy:

By applying a mathematical principle known as scale invariance to the standard model of particle physics, the researchers observed that the equations allowed the existence of another hypothetical particle, as the Higgs condensate disappeared: the dilaton. It turns out that this almost massless particle can play the role of a quintessence field – in other words, the mysterious dark energy.

The reason it takes such extreme events to be able to detect the Higgs is due to it's weak interactions (like neutrinos) and how much energy it takes to break it apart from other elements.

The Higgs itself is not directly useful for anything by itself (at least not at our level of technology), but whether or not it exists is a major scientific discovery.
105:

Wow. Thanks!

Hope that wasn't like trouble or anything.

Yeah, that's a very interesting system indeed, because it wasn't what I was expecting: dying out like that mid way and the re-forming so powerful. I didn't realize that's how it happened.
Quoting RTSplayer:
105:

Wow. Thanks!

Hope that wasn't like trouble or anything.

Yeah, that's a very interesting system indeed, because it wasn't what I was expecting: dying out like that mid way and the re-forming so powerful. I didn't realize that's how it happened.

No trouble at all. It's super easy using DownThemAll (Firefox add-on in which you can download several hundred files at once) and Windows Live Movie Maker.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Any requests for storm animations? I can get imagery back to 2000.


Isabel, Dean, and Gustav if you can.
Just saw a Weather Underground / Mitsubishi TV commercial....Very cool!!!
Quoting WxGeekVA:

hmmmmmm.....

Hmmmmmmmmm is right. Deja Vu?
Michio Kaku on the Higgs

He clearly does not believe the Higgs nor the entire standard model of matter explains DM or DE, based on this video.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Isabel, Dean, and Gustav if you can.

Sure, it will take me a while though because I'm doing Ivan.

Katrina had 300-something files to download, Monica had 400-something...Ivan has 1979.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sure, it will take me a while though because I'm doing Ivan.

Katrina had 300-something files to download, Monica had 400-something...Ivan has 1979.


Instead of using the coloured IR images, use the BW ones instead. Much nicer. (it would be nice if you'd convert Monica to that form of IR image also..)
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Hmmmmmmmmm is right. Deja Vu?


What Is Déjà Vu?
Quoting presslord:


Angela Fritz would be a good person for you to ask...


Quoting uncwhurricane85:




same thing at least where i went
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Same.


thanks guys :)
the cyclone that rammed into s. burma a few yrs ago ever since the weather has been strange
For those of you who missed it, here are a few excellent excerpts from an interview with Dr. Masters published at Conducive Chronicle.

“Expect the Unprecedented”: Weather Underground Meteorologist Jeff Masters On Our Shifting Climate

- - - - - - - - - -

Christine Shearer: How do you think about the relationship between climate, climate change, and daily weather?

Jeff Masters: Climate is what you expect; weather is what you get. I like to think of the weather as a game of dice. Mother Nature rolls the dice each day to determine the weather, and the rolls fall within the boundaries of what the climate will allow. The extreme events that happen at the boundaries of what are possible are what people tend to notice the most. When the climate changes, those boundaries change. Thus, the main way people will tend to notice climate change is through a change in the extreme events that occur at the boundaries of what is possible. If you want a longer explanation, think of the weather as a game of dice like craps or backgammon, where Mother Nature rolls two six-sided dice to decide the day’s weather. There are 36 possible combinations of the two dice, and rolls can range from two to twelve. Most often, an ordinary roll like six, seven, or eight comes up; seven is the most common, with a 6 in 36 probability. Rolls of six and eight are only slightly less common, coming up with a 5 in 36 probability. These rolls of the “weather dice” correspond to typical summer weather–high temperatures in the mid- to upper 70s on a nice summer day in New York City, for instance. It is much harder to roll an extreme event–snake eyes (corresponding to a record cold day, with a high near 65), or double sixes (a record warm day, with a high near 100.) These rolls only have a 1 in 36 chance of occurring–about 3%.

Now think about what happens if we take one of the six-sided “weather dice” and paint an extra spot on each side. The old die still rolls a one through six, but the new die now rolls a two through seven. The most likely roll increases to an eight, so we’ve shifted to a warmer climate, getting a typical summertime high of 78 degrees instead of 76. However, the increase in 78 degree days isn’t that noticeable, since we’ve only increased the likelihood of getting an eight on our “weather dice” from 5 in 36 to 6 in 36. But now look at what has happened to extreme events as a result of loading our “weather dice” in favor of higher rolls. Whereas before we had only a 3% chance of rolling an twelve on our “weather dice”–an extreme heat day of 100 degrees in New York City–we’ve now tripled these chances to almost 9%, since there are three possible combinations of the dice that total twelve or higher. Moreover, it is no longer possible to roll snake eyes, corresponding to a record cold day, but it is now possible to roll a 13–a previously unprecedented weather event. Temperatures higher than 106, New York City’s previous all-time high temperature, can now occur.

- - - - - - - - - -

Christine Shearer: A recent popular science magazine had an article stating that many experts so far attribute this year’s warm weather in the continental U.S. to La Niña and the effect of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations on the jet stream, “not global warming.” But is there a case to be made that increasing greenhouse gases and their effects could be affecting pressure systems? What is your take on this year’s U.S. winter and what you have said is the most “unusual configuration” of the jet stream ever recorded?

Jeff Masters: The natural weather rhythms I’ve grown used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth’s major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged; extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 – 2011. The laws of physics demand that the huge amount of heat-trapping gases humans are pumping into the atmosphere must be significantly altering the fundamental large-scale circulation pattern of the atmosphere. Unprecedented behavior like we’ve witnessed in the configuration of the winter jet stream over North America–with the four most extreme years since 1865 occurring since 2006–could very well be due to human-caused climate change. Something is definitely up with the weather, and it is clear to me that over the past two years, the climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events. Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are the most likely cause of such a shift in the climate.

Christine Shearer: Having really looked closely at the weather for a while now, is there something that stands out to you most?

Jeff Masters: The atmosphere I grew up with no longer exists. My new motto with regards to the weather is, “expect the unprecedented.”

Christine Shearer: Anything you would like to say?

Jeff Masters: Stronger hurricanes, bigger floods, more intense heat waves, and sea level rise have been getting many of the headlines with regards to potential climate change impacts, but drought should be our main concern. Drought is capable of crashing a civilization. To illustrate, drought has been implicated in the demise of the Mayan civilization in Mexico, the Anasazis of the Southwest U.S., and the Akkadians of Syria in 2200 B.C. The Russian heat wave and drought of 2010 led to a spike in global food prices that helped cause unrest in Africa and the Middle East that led to the overthrow of several governments. It’s likely that global-warming intensified droughts will cause far more serious impacts in the coming decades, and drought is capable of crashing our global civilization in a worst-case scenario, particularly if we do nothing to slow down emissions of carbon dioxide.

Extreme weather years like 2010 and 2011 are very likely to increase in frequency, since there is a delay of several decades between when we put heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere and when the climate fully responds. This is because Earth’s oceans take so long to heat up when extra heat is added to the atmosphere (think about how long it takes it takes for a lake to heat up during summer.) Due to this lag, we are just now experiencing the full effect of CO2 emitted by the late 1980s; since CO2 has been increasing by 1 – 3% per year since then, there is a lot more climate change “in the pipeline” we cannot avoid.

We’ve set in motion a dangerous boulder of climate change that is rolling downhill, and it is too late to avoid major damage when it hits full-force several decades from now. However, we can reduce the ultimate severity of the damage with strong and rapid action. A boulder rolling downhill can be deflected in its path more readily early in its course, before it gains too much momentum in its downward rush. For example, the International Energy Agency estimates that every dollar we invest in alternative energy before 2020 will save $4.30 later. There are many talented and dedicated people working very hard to deflect the downhill-rolling boulder of climate change–but they need a lot more help very soon.

***
Christine Shearer is a postdoctoral scholar in science, technology, and society studies at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and a researcher for CoalSwarm, part of SourceWatch. She is Managing Editor of Conducive, and author of Kivalina: A Climate Change Story (Haymarket Books, 2011).


This piece was originally published at Conducive Chronicle
Quoting presslord:
Just saw a Weather Underground / Mitsubishi TV commercial....Very cool!!!
http://www.mitsubishicars.com/storm/
XX/XX/XX
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sure, it will take me a while though because I'm doing Ivan.

Katrina had 300-something files to download, Monica had 400-something...Ivan has 1979.


how about my favorite Hurricane Igor 2010:)
Quoting Neapolitan:


Christine Shearer: Having really looked closely at the weather for a while now, is there something that stands out to you most?

Jeff Masters: The atmosphere I grew up with no longer exists. My new motto with regards to the weather is, “expect the unprecedented.


Wow, that rings so true for the last few years!
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL (11F)
13:00 PM NZDT February 8 2012
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Cyril (990 hPa) located at 27.5S 161.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 30 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center in southwestern semi-circle
240 NM from the center in northeast semi-circle

Another tropical disturbance trying to spin up in the gulf I see....


Beautiful. And still not 100% cleared out yet!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


What Is Déjà Vu?


I could have sworn you asked that before.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Beautiful. And still not 100% cleared out yet!
The eye isn't going to clear out because Jasmine has already peaked.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The eye isn't going to clear out because Jasmine has already peaked.


Actually, according to ACTF she will continue to strengthen through 6Z tomorrow:


Link


remarks:
072100z position near 19.7s 167.8e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 10p (jasmine), located approximately 175 nm
north-northeast of Noumea, New Caledonia, has tracked east-south-
eastward at 14 knots over the past six hours. Animated infrared
satellite imagery shows the system maintained a compact, highly
symmetrical convective banding around a 15-nm eye. The initial
position was based on the above animation and the initilal intensity
was based on Dvorak estimates from pgtw and knes. Upper level
analysis indicates the cyclone is 7 degrees south of a ridge axis in
an area of light to moderate (10-15 knot) vertical wind shear (vws).
Tc 10p is expected to continue tracking along the southwest
periphery of a deep-layered subtropical ridge up to tau 48 before it
gets deflected eastward by a mid-latitude trough approaching from
the southwest. It will peak intensity over the next 12 hours as
radial outflow remains exceptionally vigorous.
Beyond tau 12,
exposure to the prevailing westerlies will gradually weaken the
system. By tau 72, tc Jasmine will commence extratropical transition
(et), completing et by tau 96.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Michio Kaku on the Higgs

He clearly does not believe the Higgs nor the entire standard model of matter explains DM or DE, based on this video.


He is entitled to his opinions of course. That doesn't change the fact that there are many scientists who are very interested in whether or not the Higgs exists, and what that could mean.

Now you can disagree with it's importance and that's fine. But you shouldn't deride an entire branch of physics just because you happen to not agree with it. There's a lot of science and research that has happened and is currently happening in the area of particle physics. It is a statistical improbability that all those scientists are idiots.
This is still in the long-range, but it has shown it on its run enough times that I feel the need to mention it.

Around February 14-17, the GFS has been constantly predicting an unprecedented severe weather outbreak across Louisiana and Texas. It has shown at the same intensity around the same timeframe. With wind shear of 100 knots coupled with dew points in the 60s and 70s, if this were to come true, this outbreak would be amazing and one we would not soon forget.





Quoting Xyrus2000:


From the wiki:

The existence of the Higgs boson is predicted by the Standard Model to explain how spontaneous breaking of electroweak symmetry (the Higgs mechanism) takes place in nature, which in turn explains why other elementary particles have mass.[Note 1] Its discovery would further validate the Standard Model as essentially correct, as it is the only elementary particle predicted by the Standard Model that has not yet been observed in particle physics experiments.[2] The Standard Model completely fixes the properties of the Higgs boson, except for its mass. It is expected to have no spin and no electric or colour charge, and it interacts with other particles through weak interaction and Yukawa interactions.

And how it relates to dark energy:

By applying a mathematical principle known as scale invariance to the standard model of particle physics, the researchers observed that the equations allowed the existence of another hypothetical particle, as the Higgs condensate disappeared: the dilaton. It turns out that this almost massless particle can play the role of a quintessence field – in other words, the mysterious dark energy.

The reason it takes such extreme events to be able to detect the Higgs is due to it's weak interactions (like neutrinos) and how much energy it takes to break it apart from other elements.

The Higgs itself is not directly useful for anything by itself (at least not at our level of technology), but whether or not it exists is a major scientific discovery.
I read somewhere that the Higgs Boson or the "God Particle" is the particle that instigated the big bang. Have you heard of this Xyrus.?.If this is true, one would think that Higgs Bosons are more than rare..lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is still in the long-range, but it has shown it on its run enough times that I feel the need to mention it.

Around February 14-17, the GFS has been constantly predicting an unprecedented severe weather outbreak across Louisiana and Texas. It has shown at the same intensity around the same timeframe. With wind shear of 100 knots coupled with dew points in the 60s and 70s, if this were to come true, this outbreak would be amazing and one we would not soon forget.



Good observation..I saw it yesterday on more than one model.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is still in the long-range, but it has shown it on its run enough times that I feel the need to mention it.

Around February 14-17, the GFS has been constantly predicting an unprecedented severe weather outbreak across Louisiana and Texas. It has shown at the same intensity around the same timeframe. With wind shear of 100 knots coupled with dew points in the 60s and 70s, if this were to come true, this outbreak would be amazing and one we would not soon forget.






That doesn't sound good. We need to keep a close eye on that. I love tracking storms, but it's never been the same since the terrible tornado outbreaks of April and May 2011.
Quoting Ameister12:

That doesn't sound good. We need to keep a close eye on that. I love tracking storms, but it's never been the same since the terrible tornado outbreaks of April and May 2011.
Here is the GFS at 168 hours..Just startin out..
D-Day 2: U.S. marines and 8 countries to stage mock-invasion exercise on U.S. east coast

Posted on February 7, 2012
February 7, 2012 – NORTH CAROLINA – With beach landings, 25 naval ships and an air assault, the United States and eight other countries are staging a major amphibious exercise on the US East Coast this week, fighting a fictional enemy that bears more than a passing resemblance to Iran. After a decade dominated by ground wars against insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan, the drill dubbed Bold Alligator is “the largest amphibious exercise conducted by the fleet in the last 10 years,” said Admiral John Harvey, head of US Fleet Forces Command. About 20,000 US forces, plus hundreds of British, Dutch and French troops as well as liaison officers from Italy, Spain, New Zealand and Australia are taking part in the exercise along the Atlantic coast off Virginia and North Carolina. An American aircraft carrier, amphibious assault ships including France’s Mistral, Canadian mine sweepers and dozens of aircraft have been deployed for the drill, which began on January 30 and runs through mid-February. Monday was ‘D-day’ for Bold Alligator, with US Marines stepping on to the beach from hovercraft, near the Camp Lejeune base in North Carolina. The American military, mindful that Marines have spent most of their time in the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan since 2001, said the goal was “to revitalize, refine, and strengthen fundamental amphibious capabilities and reinforce the Navy and Marine Corps role as fighters from the sea.”

With defense spending coming under pressure after years of unlimited growth, the Marines – which devoted a brigade to the exercise – also are anxious to protect funding for their traditional role as an amphibious force. The exercise scenario takes place in a mythical region known as ‘Treasure Coast,’ with a country called Garnet, a theocracy, invading its neighbor to the north, Amberland, which calls for international help to repel the attack. Garnet has mined several harbors and deployed anti-ship missiles along the coast. The threat of mines, anti-ship missiles and small boats in coastal waters conjure up Iran’s naval forces, but the commanders overseeing the drill, Admiral Harvey and Marine Lieutenant General Dennis Hejlik, say the scenario is not based on any particular country. Amid rising tensions with Iran and threats from Tehran to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz, naval officers and military planners are keenly aware of the Islamic Republic’s arsenal of mines and anti-ship missiles. When asked by reporters last week, Harvey acknowledged that the exercise scenario was “certainly informed by recent history” and that it was “applicable” to the Strait of Hormuz, as well as other areas. –Deccan Chronicle
Semper Fi..


Ice breakers called in as icy conditions across Europe worsen and deathtoll reaches 400

Link

Phivolcs records an astounding 900 aftershocks in first 24 hours after 6.9 magnitude earthquake


Posted on February 7, 2012
February 7, 2012 – PHILIPPINES – The local seismology monitors recorded as much as 900 mild aftershocks as of noontime today after the 6.9-magnitude earthquake hit Central Visayas on Feb. 6. According to the local Philippine Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), through Engineer Nolan Evangelista, aftershocks are just ordinary incidents after a major earth movement. Evangelista also shared that the most noticeable aftershocks reached intensity 3 that was recorded at around 6:10 p.m. yesterday and another one at 7:32 p.m., which reached intensity 2. “There have been numerous aftershocks but most of them were so mild, Boholanos did not seem to notice them. Since these are aftershocks, these are never stronger than the major earthquake, unless another movement is caused by another or a similar fault,” Evangelista added. He also explained that the Phivolcs has earlier issued intensity reference charts. These charts help ordinary people measure the intensity of the earthquake while looking at the objects shaken by the tremor.
On the other hand, a magnitude scale usually issued by the Phivolcs uses the equipment recorded data which are available in their office. It means that a magnitude scale reading is a more accurate measurement of the tremor than an intensity scale which can be subjective of one’s personal experience, he said. Surviving with reports of very mild damages in cracked buildings, Bohol has also shuddered at the tremors that came after. Over this, school authorities have suspended classes in kindergarten to secondary levels so building officials and Department of Education (DepEd) authorities can inspect the integrity of school structures. Dr. Lorna Rances, schools division superintendent, urged local and school officials to help assess the damages in school buildings in their areas of responsibility and subsequently issue certifications of safe occupancy of school buildings to DepEd so that classes can resume. Yesterday, some residents felt worried when text messages about an impending tsunami circulated, after a Phivolcs-issued tsunami warning number 2. Engineer Evangelista explained that Phivolcs tsunami alert 2 means that there is a certainty that meter high waves do come and that residents in coastal areas are advised to move away from the 20-meter zones from the sea levels for their safety. It means there is a real possibility that water may rise a meter high, but in yesterday’s case, it should have come to Bohol an hour after the major quake, he said. –PIA.gov Link
Jasmine looking pretty.



Might be strengthening again.
Check out Japan Earthquakes 2011.... speakers loud please....

1,526 Bq/Kg of cesium from Shiitake mushroom sold at a supermarket
Posted by Mochizuki on February 7th, 2012 2 Comments

An independent researcher measured 1526 Bq/Kg of cesium from Shiitake mushroom. It was sold at a supermarket in Yokohama. It%u2019s only labelled as %u201CFrom Japan%u201D.
The processing factory is here.

User: It.


Cleverbot: It?


User: It.


Cleverbot: It...


User: Can.


Cleverbot: It's cold.

User: Tuna.

Cleverbot: I beg your pardon?

User: Ok.

Cleverbot: What's your favorite tv show.

User: Dont watch tv much.

Cleverbot: Yes I do.

User: Ok.

Cleverbot: Do you know who David Bowie is?

User: No.

Cleverbot: Justin bieber.

User: Kool. How?

Cleverbot: No, I did that last night.

User: Sure.

Cleverbot: No.

User: ?
Highest level of radioactive cesium in San Francisco-area milk since August 2011 — Now at 150% of EPA’s maximum contaminant limit (CHART)

Published: February 7th, 2012 at 6:28 pm ET
By ENENews

Title: UCB Milk Sampling Results
Source: UCBDepartment of Nuclear Engineering
Date: Feb 6, 2012

2/6/2012 (2:31pm): A new milk sample has been measured, this one with a best-by date of 2/16/2012. The results are posted to the milk sample page. Low levels of both Cs-134 and Cs-137 were still detected in the sample.

Best Buy Date of 02/16/2012
Cs-134 @ 0.052 Bq/L
Cs-137 @ 0.115 Bq/L

0.167 Bq/L of radioactive cesium = 4.526 picocuries/L (1 Bq = 27.1 picocuries)

The EPA Maximum Contaminant Level for radioactive cesium in milk is 3 picocuries/L:

“EPA lumps these gamma and beta emitters together under one collective MCL [Maximum Contaminant Level], so if you’re seeing cesium-137 in your milk or water, the MCL is 3.0 picocuries per liter; if you’re seeing iodine-131, the MCL is 3.0; if you’re seeing cesium-137 and iodine-131, the MCL is still 3.0.” -Forbes.com

Highest cesium levels since at least August 2011 (Since the MDA was higher over the summer, it’s hard to be sure of the exact levels back then):

GeoffreyWPB "What Is Deja Vu?"
128 Grothar "I could have sworn you asked that before."

It's deja vu all over again.
Quoting WxGeekVA:

This is the snow map that I just created after viewing the 18Z NAM and GFS runs for tomorrow afternoon.
Ha ha ha ha.
is that suppose to be snow?.Oh please I'm laughing so!!!
What an insult to the brain! all we've basically seen this winter is rain!!
The winter of 2011-2012 will be remember for no snow,and the lack of winter storms.
Quoting Patrap:
..It's a marvelous Night for a Moon Dance..

I have an LP from a jazz rock group called "Show of Hands" playing that Van Morisson song....
itsa Fine track to cover.
Quoting Patrap:
itsa Fine track to cover.


Found the track in YT.... Been a long time no hear....



From the 1970 album "Formerly Anthrax" (which was originally the name of the band)
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ha ha ha ha.
is that suppose to be snow?.Oh please I'm laughing so!!!
What an insult to the brain! all we've basically seen this winter is rain!!
The winter of 2011-2012 will be remember for no snow,and the lack of winter storms.


Yup, it's snow all right. And it might be underdone looking at the 0Z NAM so far...
sunlinepr -- Thanks for World Quakes 2011...Amazing in so many ways!
XX/XX/XX
It has been so warm in Central Florida this winter, I am wondering what will happen to all this heat once winter is over. I think I've turned my heat on once and it's now February.
Cyclone Jasmine 013000Z 08 Feb

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 936.0mb/ 112.4kt

Raw T# 5.6
Adj T# 5.6
Final T# 5.5

Scene Type: EYE

if the eye wasnt obscured with cirrus clouds, the numbers would be at or above 6.0 i believe

----------------------
Tropical Cyclone Cyril 015200Z 08 Feb

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 984.2mb/ 49.0kt

Raw T# 3.0
Adj T# 3.0
Final T# 2.7

Scene Type: CURVED BAND with 0.54 ARC in LT GRAY Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.56 ARC in LT GRAY at Lat: 27.59.23 S Lon: 159.02.23 W
I didnt know the National Weather Service had Child Abduction Emergency warnings...thats good to know
Quoting Chicklit:
It has been so warm in Central Florida this winter, I am wondering what will happen to all this heat once winter is over. I think I've turned my heat on once and it's now February.
who knows anymore uncharted territory we are now in when it comes to weather
Quoting redhusky:
sunlinepr -- Thanks for World Quakes 2011...Amazing in so many ways!


That was an Excellent job by the one who collected the data, plotted it, making the video...
Scant hope for Philippine quake missing
February 8, 2012 - 1:29PM


MCT

Thousands of soldiers in the quake-hit Philippines are scouring villages buried under landslides, but authorities say hopes of finding dozens of missing people alive are dim.

Two days after a 6.7 magnitude quake flattened homes, destroyed bridges and triggered deadly landslides in the central island of Negros, rescuers had yet to find anyone alive among at least 92 people reported missing.

"Rescue teams have so far not seen or heard any signs of life underneath," Ernesto Reyes, mayor of the city of Guihulngan on Negros island where 29 people from a small mountain community were believed buried by a landslide, told AFP on Wednesday.
"None of our missing have so far been retrieved."

At least 48 people were confirmed to have died in Negros, with another 92 missing, regional military commander Colonel Francisco Patrimonio said.

In Manila, the national government's disaster office said the death toll was 22, with 71 missing, but acknowledged it had not yet been able to verify reports from authorities in Negros.

Reyes said the mountain community in Guihulngan was buried under about 10 metres of debris, with rescue efforts painfully slow because people had only picks, shovels and their bare hands to claw through the dirt.

Roads and bridges to Guihulngan, a coastal city of about 100,000 flanked by mountains, were badly damaged in the quake, meaning earth movers and supplies for survivors could not be quickly deployed to the area, he said.

"Our immediate concern now is how to serve the living - we don't have enough food, there is no electricity and water," Reyes said.

"We are appealing for help from everyone."

The other missing people were reported in the nearby farming town of La Libertad, where a cluster of hillside homes were also crushed by a landslide, according to Negros Oriental province governor Roel Degamo.

"We are in a state of shock, and all we can do now for those still missing is to pray," Degamo said.

He said soldiers and rescuers raced against time on Tuesday to find a young woman who had sent a mobile phone text message to her relatives that she was pinned down, but alive.

The dramatic search, however, ended in tears hours later.

"She was found dead and still clutching her mobile phone," Degamo told AFP, declining to give further details about the victim in deference to her grieving family.

Civil Defence Office chief Benito Ramos said five military battalions, or about 2000 troops, had been deployed to the devastated zones and were helping local rescue units.

"We are racing against time, and hoping against hope that maybe, just maybe some of them might still be alive," he said.

However, he said the military had not yet been able to get heavy equipment into the landslide-devastated communities because of the damaged roads.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #7
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
12:00 PM FST February 8 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category Three (958 hPa) located at 17.4S 168.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 13 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization remains good. Eye partially cloud filled but still discernible. Outflow good to the east but restricted elsewhere. Jasmine lies under 250 HPA short-wave trough in a weak sheared environment. Cyclone is being steered to the southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly flow.

Dvorak analysis based on dg eye in lg surround yielding DT = 5.0, PT= 5.5 and MET=5.5 final Dvorak based of DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Most global models move jasmine southeast with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

12 HRS: 21.1S 169.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 22.6S 171.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 25.2S 173.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

The next tropical disturbance advisory on Severe TC Jasmine from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..
Quoting SPLbeater:
I didnt know the National Weather Service had Child Abduction Emergency warnings...thats good to know


yup, you can receive them from a weather radio as well.
Miami NWS Discussion

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODEL OF THE GFS IS SHOWING THAT THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
FRIDAY INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND...AS A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVES SOUTH AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE GFS IS ALSO SHOWING ANOTHER MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS MEANS THAT WE SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY.

HOWEVER...THE LATEST LONG RANGE ECMWF MODEL IS SHOWING THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVING SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING THAT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ALSO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUT THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS INSTEAD OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.

THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING RAIN CHANGES OF 60 TO 70 PERCENT FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ONLY 20
TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. THEREFORE...WILL GO
WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH WITH 40 PERCENT POPS FOR SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE DRIER AIR TO WORK
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING THE RAIN CHANCES
DOWN OVER THE CWA FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO
AROUND A SLIGHT CHANCE.

On Yahoo now.... Link

Syria raises spectre of proxy conflict for U.S., Russia
ReutersBy Andrew Quinn | Reuters – 4 hrs ago

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - As the Obama administration weighs worst-case scenarios for Syria, one stands out: a civil war that develops into a proxy battle between Arabs and the West on one side, and Russia and Iran on the other.

U.S. officials stress they do not want to play a military role in Syria, where President Bashar al-Assad's crackdown on protests has killed more than 5,000 people and raised fears of a protracted power struggle in a country at the heart of the Arab world.

But after U.S. and Arab-led efforts to craft consensus in the U.N. Security Council on Syria's political transition were torpedoed by vetoes from Russia and China, some analysts say risks are growing that the international community will line up on opposite sides of a fratricidal war.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Yup, it's snow all right. And it might be underdone looking at the 0Z NAM so far...
We won't probally get anything here in the city.
Beautiful moon tonight
*yawn*
Cool weather predicted for Mardi Gras. You all come on down!
172. BtnTx
Quoting Chicklit:
It has been so warm in Central Florida this winter, I am wondering what will happen to all this heat once winter is over. I think I've turned my heat on once and it's now February.
I am expecting this summer to be very hot for GOM states. Tropical storm developments could be very scary. And tornado season before that as well. I expect 2012 to be an extreme weather year.
well, its bedtime. night all! be back tomorrow morning.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is still in the long-range, but it has shown it on its run enough times that I feel the need to mention it.

Around February 14-17, the GFS has been constantly predicting an unprecedented severe weather outbreak across Louisiana and Texas. It has shown at the same intensity around the same timeframe. With wind shear of 100 knots coupled with dew points in the 60s and 70s, if this were to come true, this outbreak would be amazing and one we would not soon forget.







Should I ready my video camera?
Quoting FrankZapper:
Cool weather predicted for Mardi Gras. You all come on down!


Haven't seen you in awhile. How are ya?
Quoting sunlinepr:
On Yahoo now.... Link

Syria raises spectre of proxy conflict for U.S., Russia
ReutersBy Andrew Quinn | Reuters – 4 hrs ago

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - As the Obama administration weighs worst-case scenarios for Syria, one stands out: a civil war that develops into a proxy battle between Arabs and the West on one side, and Russia and Iran on the other.

U.S. officials stress they do not want to play a military role in Syria, where President Bashar al-Assad's crackdown on protests has killed more than 5,000 people and raised fears of a protracted power struggle in a country at the heart of the Arab world.

But after U.S. and Arab-led efforts to craft consensus in the U.N. Security Council on Syria's political transition were torpedoed by vetoes from Russia and China, some analysts say risks are growing that the international community will line up on opposite sides of a fratricidal war.


Well, if that were to happen it would be the first proxy war since Vietnam. Soviet war in Afghanistan may count to as the US was funding extremist groups there to fight the Soviets. Hopefully it is the worst case scenario as a proxy war would lead to another Cold War and probably an economic collapse as all trade between the West and China would be severely limited. Not needed in a time like this.
Quoting BtnTx:
I am expecting this summer to be very hot for GOM states. Tropical storm developments could be very scary. And tornado season before that as well. I expect 2012 to be an extreme weather year.


To be fair, the south is supposed to be warm during a La Nina year. The NAO sorta negated that the last two winters, but it's certainly not the norm.
178. wxmod
Africa dust today

Quoting KoritheMan:


Haven't seen you in awhile. How are ya?
Hi Kori!
I took a Sabbatical from weather blogging at the end of the 2011 season.
I'm fine except for nervous breakdown after Tigers AND Saints didn't finish #1. :(
How are you?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Should I ready my video camera?
would you like an epic event
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
would you like an epic event


The event itself? Yep. The loss of life? Nope.
Quoting FrankZapper:
Hi Kori!
I took a Sabbatical from weather blogging at the end of the 2011 season.
I'm fine except for nervous breakdown after Tigers AND Saints didn't finish #1. :(
How are you?


lmao breakdown :P

I'm fine. I started working at Walmart in November, and I already hate it. Unfortunately, it looks like I'm stuck indefinitely. I need it to move on with my life.
Quoting Patrap:
Scant hope for Philippine quake missing
February 8, 2012 - 1:29PM


MCT

Thousands of soldiers in the quake-hit Philippines are scouring villages buried under landslides, but authorities say hopes of finding dozens of missing people alive are dim.

Two days after a 6.7 magnitude quake flattened homes, destroyed bridges and triggered deadly landslides in the central island of Negros, rescuers had yet to find anyone alive among at least 92 people reported missing.

"Rescue teams have so far not seen or heard any signs of life underneath," Ernesto Reyes, mayor of the city of Guihulngan on Negros island where 29 people from a small mountain community were believed buried by a landslide, told AFP on Wednesday.
"None of our missing have so far been retrieved."

At least 48 people were confirmed to have died in Negros, with another 92 missing, regional military commander Colonel Francisco Patrimonio said.

In Manila, the national government's disaster office said the death toll was 22, with 71 missing, but acknowledged it had not yet been able to verify reports from authorities in Negros.

Reyes said the mountain community in Guihulngan was buried under about 10 metres of debris, with rescue efforts painfully slow because people had only picks, shovels and their bare hands to claw through the dirt.

Roads and bridges to Guihulngan, a coastal city of about 100,000 flanked by mountains, were badly damaged in the quake, meaning earth movers and supplies for survivors could not be quickly deployed to the area, he said.

"Our immediate concern now is how to serve the living - we don't have enough food, there is no electricity and water," Reyes said.

"We are appealing for help from everyone."

The other missing people were reported in the nearby farming town of La Libertad, where a cluster of hillside homes were also crushed by a landslide, according to Negros Oriental province governor Roel Degamo.

"We are in a state of shock, and all we can do now for those still missing is to pray," Degamo said.

He said soldiers and rescuers raced against time on Tuesday to find a young woman who had sent a mobile phone text message to her relatives that she was pinned down, but alive.

The dramatic search, however, ended in tears hours later.

"She was found dead and still clutching her mobile phone," Degamo told AFP, declining to give further details about the victim in deference to her grieving family.

Civil Defence Office chief Benito Ramos said five military battalions, or about 2000 troops, had been deployed to the devastated zones and were helping local rescue units.

"We are racing against time, and hoping against hope that maybe, just maybe some of them might still be alive," he said.

However, he said the military had not yet been able to get heavy equipment into the landslide-devastated communities because of the damaged roads.



Of course, the people had been worried, just a day before this happened, that the nearby earthquakes were a harbinger of some volcanic events.

The Phillipine government and the USGS assured them there was nothing to worry about, and no undersea volcanos erupting.


Well, they were half right; no volcanos after all.

Locals had the right idea after all: Something was brewing.
Stadium effect?



Sigh...

La Nina still ongoing
Posted: Feb 07, 2012 8:21 PM CST Updated: Feb 07, 2012 8:21 PM CST
By Patrick Vaughn

Despite the fact that Southeast Texas has seen between 9 and 14 inches of rainfall since the beginning of 2012, La Nina continues unabated.

La Nina is the abnormal cooling of the Eastern Pacific waters which causes global weather impacts. This cooling assisted in the drought across Texas. During winter months, La Nina looses its impact on our region. However, by Spring, we may again begin to see below-normal rainfall.

Currently, water temperatures in the Eastern Pacific are running between 1 and 2 degrees below normal - please see graphic #1. Long range computer models forecast warming of the Eastern Pacific to begin by March/April/May (MAM) - please see graphic #2. By May/June/July (MJJ), the consensus of the models shows warming with near-normal temperatures by the end of Summer around June/July/August (JJA).

So, it's reasonable to forecast below-normal rainfall for Spring with some improvement possibly by late Summer. Stay tuned.



Quoting KoritheMan:


lmao breakdown :P

I'm fine. I started working at Walmart in November, and I already hate it. Unfortunately, it looks like I'm stuck indefinitely. I need it to move on with my life.
You would make a fine meteorologist. Just saying.
Quoting FrankZapper:
You would make a fine meteorologist. Just saying.


One step ahead of you bro. I'm not about to let this talent go to waste. Unlike most people, I have a ton of time to prioritize my life.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


So, it's reasonable to forecast below-normal rainfall for Spring with some improvement possibly by late Summer. Stay tuned.

Pretty much my thinking as well. There should be some reprieve for you guys this year relative to last year, but it will not be quick.
SH102012 - Tropical Cyclone (>=96 kt) JASMINE

..click image for Loop

ZOOM is available


Looks like tis threaded the needle and hasn't hit any land directly.

Good news.
BTW, while I've been away has there been any breakthroughs with the AGW insight? Does what's his name and Co. still obsess about it on the blog?


thinking about using the above as my banner for 2012 tropical atlantic hurricane season blog page

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


thinking about using the above as my banner for 2012 tropical atlantic hurricane season blog page
Don't see anything.

Quoting FrankZapper:
BTW, while I've been away has there been any breakthroughs with the AGW insight? Does what's his name and Co. still obsess about it on the blog?
It's still the same.
Quoting FrankZapper:
Cool weather predicted for Mardi Gras. You all come on down!


I get into Baton Rouge tomorrow night and NO on Friday afternoon through Sunday. Krewe of Oshun will be my first parade of the carnival season!! Can't wait!
Quoting RTSplayer:
Looks like tis threaded the needle and hasn't hit any land directly.

Good news.
there has been quad effects flooding rains gusting winds only the direct eye has missed land indirect effects are still felt and continue to be so

Quoting CanesfanatUT:


I get into Baton Rouge tomorrow night and NO on Friday afternoon through Sunday. Krewe of Oshun will be my first parade of the carnival season!! Can't wait!
How long will you be down here?
Quoting KoritheMan:

Don't see anything.


can ya see it now iam gonna shrink it down to a banner size gif for my blog page header for the 2012 season

199. Bonz
Winter has SUCKED in Fort Lauderdale this year. Very little cool weather came our way. And summer will be here before we know it.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


can ya see it now
Nope.
did anyone see it or did it not even make it pass
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
did anyone see it or did it not even make it pass


It was up there for a while...then I refreshed and it was gone.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


It was up there for a while...then I refreshed and it was gone.
its digital art got it from the world wide web
I plan on hanging out a lot at the "other" site ( can I say that?) as we roll around to the new season. It's a lot of fun and quite a bit of expertise is there too. The sites complement each other. After all too, this IS America. Free speech and all that.
Quoting FrankZapper:
I plan on hanging out a lot at the "other" site ( can I say that?) as we roll around to the new season. It's a lot of fun and quite a bit of expertise is there too. The sites complement each other. After all too, this IS America. Free speech and all that.


Freedom has a price
Quoting FrankZapper:
I plan on hanging out a lot at the "other" site ( can I say that?) as we roll around to the new season. It's a lot of fun and quite a bit of expertise is there too. The sites complement each other. After all too, this IS America. Free speech and all that.
so i chill here there everywhere this is the world wide web
Quoting KoritheMan:


lmao breakdown :P

I'm fine. I started working at Walmart in November, and I already hate it. Unfortunately, it looks like I'm stuck indefinitely. I need it to move on with my life.
Do you won't my job???.I work as a lawyer for the government.Walmart wouldn't be so bad.......would it???.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Do you won't my job???.I work as a lawyer for the government.Walmart wouldn't be so bad.......would it???.
Lawyers get paid more.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Do you won't my job???.I work as a lawyer for the government.Walmart wouldn't be so bad.......would it???.
don't ya mean a liar

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
don't ya mean a liar
XD
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
don't ya mean a liar
Hey but when you need someone to represent you who do you call....
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey but when you need someone to represent you who do you call....
a liar a real good one
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a liar a real good one

They're all liars. You just have to figure which one tells the least amount of lies.
Jesse
Quoting TampaSpin:
The National Association of REALTORS is all over this and working to get it
repealed, before it takes effect. But, I am very pleased we aren't the
only ones who know about this ploy to steal billions from unsuspecting
homeowners. How many REALTORS do you think will vote Democratic in 2012?



Did you know that if you sell your house after 2012 you will pay a 3.8%
sales tax on it? That's $3,800 on a $100,000 home, etc. When did this
happen? It's in the health care bill and goes into effect in 2013.



Why 2013? Could it be to come to light AFTER the 2012 elections? So,
this is "change you can believe in"? Under the new health care bill all
real estate transactions will be subject to a 3.8% Sales Tax.



If you sell a $400,000 home, there will be a $15,200 tax.

This bill is set to screw the retiring generation who often downsize their
homes. Does this make your November and 2012 vote more important?



Oh, you weren't aware this was in the Obamacare bill? Guess what, you
aren't alone. There are more than a few members of Congress that aren't
aware of it either

http://www.gop.gov/blog/10/04/08/obamacare-flatli nes-obamacare-taxes-home <

http://www.gop.gov/blog/10/04/08/obamacare-flatli nes-obamacare-taxes-home>





Arthur is 90 years old. He's played golf every day since his retirement 25
years ago.

One day he arrives home looking downcast.

"That's it," he tells his wife. "I'm giving up golf. My eyesight has got so
bad.

Once I've hit the ball, I can't see where it went."

"Why don't you take my brother with you and give it one more try."
"That's no good," sighs Arthur. "Your brother is a hundred and three. He
can't help."
"He may be a hundred and three," says the wife, "but his eyesight is
perfect."
So the next day, Arthur heads off to the golf course with his
brother-in-law.

He tees up, takes an almighty swing and squints down the fairway.

He turns to the brother-in-law. "Did you see the ball?"
"Of course I did!" says the brother-in-law. "I have perfect eyesight."
"Where did it go?" asks Arthur.
"Can't remember."


Instead of regurgitating GOP talking points, might I suggest a less partisan source of information such as factcheck.org. Link

Or if people don't want to click the link:

Q: Does the new health care law impose a 3.8 percent tax on profits from selling your home?

A: No, with very few exceptions. The first $250,000 in profit from the sale of a personal residence won't be taxed, or the first $500,000 in the case of a married couple. The tax falls on relatively few of those with high incomes from other sources.

So unless you can sell for a significant amount of profit, you're not going to be seeing any sales tax on your home.
Quoting hydrus:
I read somewhere that the Higgs Boson or the "God Particle" is the particle that instigated the big bang. Have you heard of this Xyrus.?.If this is true, one would think that Higgs Bosons are more than rare..lol


It didn't instigate it, but according to theory it did "help it along" by influencing the expansion.
128. Grothar 7:59 PM EST on February 07, 2012

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

What Is Déjà Vu?


I could have sworn you asked that before.

220. Ylee
#213: Ghostbusters? :)
Good morning. A big dust outbreak is now in the Tropical Atlantic thanks to a positive NAO that creates strong Azores high. The question is if these sal outbreaks will be common this year.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning. A big dust outbreak is now in the Tropical Atlantic thanks to a positive NAO that creates strong Azores high. The question is if these sal outbreaks will be common this year.



I thought there was SAL every year?
A lawyer that has poor grammar? Is that legal?

On a weather note... we have had a goodly amount of rain in Palm Beach county the last few days.
Quoting jrweatherman:


I thought there was SAL every year?


Some years have big sal outbreaks than other years depending on how strong are the trade winds in the Atlantic.
In case it hasn't been posted this is an interview of Jeff by Christine Shearer of Conducive Chronicle.
I've never seen such a strong MJO impulse in February.

As a result of the MJO Central & S FL are going to get soaked this weekend.

Quoting percylives:
In case it hasn't been posted this is an interview of Jeff by Christine Shearer of Conducive Chronicle.
I posted a big chunk of it yesterday (comment #119). Excellent interview. And it's not just about weather and climate, but gives a little insight into the naming of this site.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I've never seen such a strong MJO impulse in February.



It's rare to see such a strong (light green/blue on the top frame) at all.. MX really needs this.
Quoting JupiterKen:
A lawyer that has poor grammar? Is that legal?

On a weather note... we have had a goodly amount of rain in Palm Beach county the last few days.
Who says I have to talk perfect on a weather blog? I'm sure Taz has a nice job as well and he post strange things all the time.
S FL has already seen a good amount of rain this week with more on the way!

Quoting Skyepony:


It's rare to see such a strong (light green/blue on the top frame) at all.. MX really needs this.


Yeah I saw something over the weekend about the severe drought Mexico is dealing with. P.S It looks as if Melbourne will finally break this long dry streak on Saturday. I think you guys are at 43 days with no rain so far.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah I saw something over the weekend about the severe drought Mexico is dealing with. P.S It looks as if Melbourne will finally break this long dry streak on Saturday. I think you guys are at 43 days with no rain so far.


That streak was broken yesterday. They had .004.
Quoting emcf30:


That streak was broken yesterday. They had .004.


I really I wasn't aware thanks! I know we in C FL are in need of a good soaking so I hope this weekends rain event pans out.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning. A big dust outbreak is now in the Tropical Atlantic thanks to a positive NAO that creates strong Azores high. The question is if these sal outbreaks will be common this year.



If youre looking for another real above hurricane season 2012 isnt looking to active as the appearance of el nino is looking more and more probable with each passing day. ECMWF as of now has well above MSLP anomaly and pressures just about basin wide. As always just takes 1 over your city.

Quoting RitaEvac:




That Texas drought just won't go away!
Quoting hurricane23:


If youre looking for another real above hurricane season 2012 isnt looking to active as the appearance of el nino is looking more and more probable with each passing day. ECMWF as of now has well above MSLP anomaly and pressures just about basin wide. As always just takes 1 over your city.



You can already tell that the atmosphere is beginning to respond with the recent drops in the SOI values. Also there's been lots of convection in the E-Pac as of late feeding moisture into these troughs as they dig toward the Gulf. FL should see a very wet second half of February especially mid next week as a big rain maker settles in across the eastern Gulf.
he water levels on lake Okeechobee will fluctuate 6 feet in some years, others a foot or two. The normal water levels on Lake Okeechobee range from 12-15 feet above sea level. The normal water level on Okeechobee in the summer months range in the 11-14 feet above sea level. The water levels on lake Okeechobee mainly raise and lower do rain or the lack of.

Most all freshwater in Florida runs North to South, making the main replenishing areas between Orlando and Lake Okeechobee.

Summer months usually bring most of the rain, mainly during normal years from afternoon rain showers or either tropical storms and hurricanes. This is when the most of the water levels rise in Lake Okeechobee the fastest. During the winter months the water levels in Okeechobee will consistently fall from January thru June. The lake fishes like most rivers…much better on a fall tide vs a rising tide.

Current levels are 13.2ft. The needed rain should raise the levels around a foot depending how much rain falls to the north of the lake!

Bring on the MJO!
The End of the World as We Know It? Survey says: 62% Yes
Doomsday Preppers
Quoting aspectre:
The End of the World as We Know It? Survey says: 62% Yes
Doomsday Preppers


Whatever the future holds, it's not bright. Debt is a major issue for the globe, throw in regular natural disasters and there's no funding to rebuild, basically escalates the situation and you're basically back in the stone age because of lack of funding and money. Were sitting ducks.
Once food production stops and grocery stores close, widespread panic breaks out and.....it all begins.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah I saw something over the weekend about the severe drought Mexico is dealing with. P.S It looks as if Melbourne will finally break this long dry streak on Saturday. I think you guys are at 43 days with no rain so far.


I had 0.05" yesterday & a trace a few times.

Getting desperate for rain.. all this perfect weather is gonna burn us up without some rain.
I read about the doom and gloom with Global warming issue in the USA, but there is more important issues.

My big issue is the Obama administration taking Border guards with Mexico off the border, and having the Department of Interior state, the Federal lands on the Mexican Border are Wild Life sanctuary, or perserves, so no Law Enforcement Officers are allowed, (they might hurt the ECO system). Hundreds of Humans are killed each year in Pima County AZ. alone!
2010: 249 deaths
2011: 214 deaths

Hamas and Hezbollah, are partnering with the drug cartels and have camps throughout Central America, to infiltrate the United States, and this administration has a hands off policy for law enforcement.
Am I just nuts, or is our Country in big danger from within and externally?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
don't ya mean a liar
If you get time today Keep, please post a couple of the long range models you usually have here...Thank you..Was Nixon a liar?...he he..:)
Quoting RitaEvac:


Whatever the future holds, it's not bright. Debt is a major issue for the globe, throw in regular natural disasters and there's no funding to rebuild, basically escalates the situation and you're basically back in the stone age because of lack of funding and money. Were sitting ducks.


Actually, money itself is the problem: artificial economics, especially financial markets which inflate, deflate, and otherwise falsify the value of goods and services.

do you think anyone died during the colonial period due to lack of money? Of course not.

The colonists worked together and did what was right for one another, because it was the right thing to do.


We have thousands of homeless people in the same nation that also has about a million vacant homes right now, due to greed and a broken financial system; really a completely broken system of both government and economics.

And then we have multi-national corporations, which take the inventions of their workers, which were often funded by our government's loans and grant money, or subsidies, and patent them, due to clauses in everyone's contract with their employer which forfeits all rights to your own ideas just so you can keep a job, and then the corporations move over seas to produce the product and sell out the technology to other nations.

This is treason.


Further, the way modern patents are given is not supported by the constitution anyway.

The constitution gives patent rights to the ORIGINAL AUTHOR OR INVENTOR, not corporations and abstract entities. In fact, the indication fro the text is that patents are supposed to be temporary, so that the original author can make some money off it and benefit from it, and eventually expire and become public domain.

What we have today is when a corporation has a patent, they own it forever, and sue anyone who tries to do anything similar.

It's got to the point Apple sued Samsung for having a handheld computer with rounded edge...AND WON.

Clearly, that is a corrupt legal system that no rational person would respect or honor.

It costs the U.S. government about 2 cents to make a penny, and nearly 10 cents to make a nickel, because the value of the metals and the machinery to do the coining is more than the face value of the coin. Yet they do this anyway, at a net loss!

Just one more example of complete insanity among leadership.


Money and artificial economics are the problem.

Not the solution.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Actually, money itself is the problem: artificial economics, especially financial markets which inflate, deflate, and otherwise falsify the value of goods and services.

do you think anyone died during the colonial period due to lack of money? Of course not.

The colonists worked together and did what was right for one another, because it was the right thing to do.


We have thousands of homeless people in the same nation that also has about a million vacant homes right now, due to greed and a broken financial system; really a completely broken system of both government and economics.

And then we have multi-national corporations, which take the inventions of their workers, which were often funded by our government's loans and grant money, or subsidies, and patent them, due to clauses in everyone's contract with their employer which forfeits all rights to your own ideas just so you can keep a job, and then the corporations move over seas to produce the product and sell out the technology to other nations.

This is treason.


Further, the way modern patents are given is not supported by the constitution anyway.

The constitution gives patent rights to the ORIGINAL AUTHOR OR INVENTOR, not corporations and abstract entities. In fact, the indication fro the text is that patents are supposed to be temporary, so that the original author can make some money off it and benefit from it, and eventually expire and become public domain.

What we have today is when a corporation has a patent, they own it forever, and sue anyone who tries to do anything similar.

It's got to the point Apple sued Samsung for having a handheld computer with rounded edge...AND WON.

Clearly, that is a corrupt legal system that no rational person would respect or honor.

It costs the U.S. government about 2 cents to make a penny, and nearly 10 cents to make a nickel, because the value of the metals and the machinery to do the coining is more than the face value of the coin. Yet they do this anyway, at a net loss!

Just one more example of complete insanity among leadership.


Money and artificial economics are the problem.

Not the solution.


So do we have to destroy our current form of economic system to achieve your agenda?