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Hard freeze hits Midwest and Northeast fruit trees

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:36 PM GMT on March 27, 2012

Large portions of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania shivered through a hard freeze (temperatures below 28°F ) this morning, and cold temperatures will cause widespread damage to flowering plants fooled into blooming by last week's unprecedented "Summer in March" heat wave. Growers of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines, plums, and cherries worked during the night and early morning to minimize the damage by running large fans and propane heaters in their orchards in an attempts to keep temperatures a few degrees warmer. While freezing temperatures for an extended period will not kill the trees, they will destroy the flowers and fragile buds that are needed to produce fruit later in the year. I expect that this morning's freeze was severe and widespread enough to cause tens of millions of dollars in damage to the fruit industry, but it will be several weeks before the extent of the damage is known. It would take several nights of temperatures in the 20s to cause a more significant billion-dollar disaster, such as occurred in 2007. A warm spell in March that year was followed by cold temperatures in early April that were 10 - 20 degrees below average, bringing killing frosts and freezes to the Midwest and South that caused $2.2 billion in agricultural damage, wiping out apple, peach, winter wheat and alfalfa crops.

During the remainder of this week, temperatures are expected to be much warmer than they were this morning, so the freeze damage will be limited compared to 2007. However, we still have two more months to go this spring when temperatures commonly fall below freezing. Plants will steadily grow more susceptible to cold temperatures in the coming weeks as the growing season progresses, and the odds of more destructive frosts and freezes for the Midwest and Northeast fruit industry are high.


Figure 1. Low temperatures this morning dipped below 30 degrees over Eastern Michigan, Northeast Ohio, Northern West Virginia, and much of Pennsylvania, in regions where spring bloom was well-advanced due to last week's record "Summer in March" heat wave. Widespread agricultural damage likely occurred in these areas.

History of billion-dollar U.S. freezes
Freezes can cause big damage to agriculture. According to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, there have been six billion-dollar U.S. freezes since 1980, accounting for 5% of all billion-dollar weather-related disasters. Five of these freezes affected California or Florida; one hit the Midwest. Ranked by damages (in 2011 dollars), here are the six billion-dollar U.S. freeze events since 1980:

1) California Freeze of December 1990. Severe freeze in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley caused the loss of citrus, avocado trees, and other crops in many areas. Several days of subfreezing temperatures occurred, with some valley locations in the teens. $5.9 billion in direct and indirect economic losses, including damage to public buildings, utilities, crops, and residences.

2) Florida Freeze of December 1983. Severe freeze central/northern Florida; about $4.5 billion damage to citrus industry.

3) California Freeze of December 1998. A severe freeze damaged fruit and vegetable crops in the Central and Southern San Joaquin Valley. Extended intervals of sub 27° F temperatures occurred over an 8-day period; $3.5 billion estimated damages/costs.

4) Florida Freeze of January 1985. Severe freeze in central/northern Florida; about $2.5 billion damage to citrus industry.

5) East/Midwest freeze of April 2007. Widespread severe freeze over much of the East and Midwest (AL, AR, GA, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NC, OH, OK, SC, TN, VA, WV), causing significant losses in fruit crops, field crops (especially wheat), and the ornamental industry. Temperatures in the teens/20's accompanied by rather high winds nullified typical crop-protection systems. Over $2.2 billion in damage/costs.

6) California Freeze of January 2007. For nearly two weeks in January, overnight temperatures over a good portion of California dipped into the 20's, destroying numerous agricultural crops, with citrus, berry, and vegetable crops most affected. $1.5 billion estimated in damage/costs; 1 fatality reported.

Scotland records its all-time warmest March temperature
The ridge of high pressure that brought "Summer in March" to the U.S. last week moved over Western Europe over the weekend, bringing sunny skies and record-breaking high temperatures to the U.K. Scotland broke its record for hottest March temperature on record on Sunday, when the mercury hit 22.8°C at Fyvie Castle, Aberdeenshire. The record lasted only one day, as a new high of 22.9°C was recorded in Aboyne, Aberdeenshire, on Monday. That record also lasted just one day, as Aboyne, Aberdeenshire has hit 23.4°C today. The previous March record in Scotland was 22.2°C at Gordon Castle (Morayshire) in March 1957, and at Strachan (Kincardineshire) in March 1965.

Canada's 1926 all-time March temperature record questioned
I reported last week that the 29.2°C (85°F) measured at Western Head, Nova Scotia on March 22, 2012 was the third warmest temperature ever recorded in Canada in March. Environment Canada lists the hottest March temperature as a 31.1°C at Beaver Creek on Vancouver Island, BC on March 29th, 1926. However, weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera has looked into this record, and concluded that it is likely bogus. A station just a few miles away at Port Alberni measured a much cooler high temperature of 23.3°C that day, and the temperature range between the high and low temperature at Beaver Creek was almost 30°C, which is far too great for a station so close to the ocean. Such large differences between min and max temperature on sunny days usually commonly imply poor siting of the temperature instrument. He maintains that the highest March temperature in Canada should be the 29.4°C in 1921 at Wallaceburg, with the second highest being the 29.2°C (85°F) measured at Western Head, Nova Scotia on March 22, 2012.

Jeff Masters
Pink Springtime!
Pink Springtime!
Pretty little blossoms
Pretty little blossoms
all in a row. I don't remember this old Redbud tree ever having all the little clusters of blooms on the branches. I thought it was pretty.

Heat Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

good morning..global warming has changed into global cooling..another ICE AGE has occured....ok what happens now? ......Another ice age would result in very large ice caps covering the Northern Latitudes & the Southern Latitudes and this would cause the almost 7 billion people of planet Earth to live closer together in a smaller area that which we are spread out now. As an example, all of Canada would be covered by an ice cap, as would Great Britain, Scandinavia, Nothern Russia & all of Alaska.

Sea levels would drop almost 400 feet depending upon the strength of the Ice Age. There would be a much reduced area to grow food and definitely not nearly enough to feed 7 billion people. Nuclear War would very likely break out over the best areas to live and to survive and this in itself could cause manking to become an extinct species.

Source(s):
Quoting LargoFl:
good morning..global warming has changed into global cooling..another ICE AGE has occured....ok what happens now? ......Another ice age would result in very large ice caps covering the Northern Latitudes & the Southern Latitudes and this would cause the almost 7 billion people of planet Earth to live closer together in a smaller area that which we are spread out now. As an example, all of Canada would be covered by an ice cap, as would Great Britain, Scandinavia, Nothern Russia & all of Alaska.

Sea levels would drop almost 400 feet depending upon the strength of the Ice Age. There would be a much reduced area to grow food and definitely not nearly enough to feed 7 billion people. Nuclear War would very likely break out over the best areas to live and to survive and this in itself could cause manking to become an extinct species.

Source(s):
THIS is why ..lets hear it for global warming
For many years growing up on the coast of NC where we have had our share of many hurricanes, we were always taught to tape up your windows..seems that is not the official case anymore.

Hurricane officials: No more tape for windows
Submitted by WWAY on Tue, 03/27/2012 - 9:09am.READ MORE:

By MIKE SCHNEIDER
Associated Press

ORLANDO, FL (AP) -- Officials with the National Hurricane Center have a message for residents living in hurricane-prone areas: Don't tape your windows.

Hurricane center officials are joining with a consumer advocate group Tuesday at the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando to encourage residents to skip taping their windows when a hurricane is heading their way. They believe it leads to a false sense of security.

They say residents in hurricane zones instead should use hurricane shutters and impact-resistant windows.

Hundreds of meteorologists and emergency management officials are in Orlando for the weeklong hurricane conference.

(Copyright 2012 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)
From previous blog:

Quoting afj3:
Morning all!
Can anyone help me out? What does an El Nino event mean for the South Florida (East Coast Miami) rainy season? Will we get more summer t-storms this summer and fall?


A previous issue of Miami NWS Rainy Season Outlook has this statement:

"Looking back at years in which an early La Niña transitioned to neutral or weak El Niño conditions, the tendency is for a wetter than normal rainy season over South Florida."
Quoting ncstorm:
For many years growing up on the coast of NC where we have had our share of many hurricanes, we were always taught to tape up your windows..seems that is not the official case anymore.

Hurricane officials: No more tape for windows
Submitted by WWAY on Tue, 03/27/2012 - 9:09am.READ MORE:

By MIKE SCHNEIDER
Associated Press

ORLANDO, FL (AP) -- Officials with the National Hurricane Center have a message for residents living in hurricane-prone areas: Don't tape your windows.

Hurricane center officials are joining with a consumer advocate group Tuesday at the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando to encourage residents to skip taping their windows when a hurricane is heading their way. They believe it leads to a false sense of security.

They say residents in hurricane zones instead should use hurricane shutters and impact-resistant windows.

Hundreds of meteorologists and emergency management officials are in Orlando for the weeklong hurricane conference.

(Copyright 2012 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)
Good point made there, tape wont protect you, shutters are best, but dont forget the roof..climbing up in the attic, securing better those roof trusses and support beams so it will better withstand the HUGE lifting forces in a hurricane, if the roof goes, so does your contents and maybe YOU with them
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
From previous blog:



A previous issue of Miami NWS Rainy Season Outlook has this statement:

"Looking back at years in which an early La Niña transitioned to neutral or weak El Niño conditions, the tendency is for a wetter than normal rainy season over South Florida."
I am hoping it increases our rain chances
BREAKING: Obama Administration To Establish Strong Carbon Pollution Limits For New Power Plants
By Brad Johnson on Mar 26, 2012 at 10:14 pm


In one of the most significant reversals of Bush-era policy, the Obama administration plans tomorrow to issue greenhouse pollution limits for new power plants, a major step in the fight against global warming. The new rule — which will go into effect in 2013 — confirms the end of the era of dirty coal-fired power plants:

The proposed rule — years in the making and approved by the White House after months of review — will require any new power plant to emit no more than 1,000 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt of electricity produced. The average U.S. natural gas plant, which emits between 800 and 850 pounds of CO2 per megawatt, meets that standard; coal plants emit an average of 1,768 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt.

Since the late 1990s, “natural gas has been the fuel of choice for the majority of new generating units,” and in the 2000s, wind power generation also grew significantly. With the high cost of its toxic pollution from mine to plant, coal has been losing out to cleaner sources of fuel in the electric utility sector. Although few new coal plants have been built in the last twenty years, aging plants — some built in the 1930s — still produce about 40 percent of U.S. electricity, and about 80 percent of carbon pollution from the power sector.

In March 2001, newly elected President George W. Bush reversed a campaign pledge to limit greenhouse pollution from power plants, the source of 40 percent of United States global warming pollution. In 2008, Bush White House officials refused to open an email sent by its own Environmental Protection Agency which called for action against man-made climate change.

“This is the third major executive action launched by the Obama administration to reduce carbon pollution,” writes Center for American Progress senior fellow Daniel Weiss. “With growing evidence that the serious impacts of climate change are already here, President Obama deserves credit for this new standard. We must urgently adopt and implement these new pollution reduction standards for power plants.”
ok so what will happens with this global warming...found this great article...When we think of global warming, we think of things really sucking: rising oceans, catostrophic new weather patterns, disrupted food supply chains, Alaskan beach resorts. It’s all awful and very likely to happen, for global warming to hit its current worst case scenario. Because people are still pretty much idiots. Civilizations will reach concensus about climate change and science maybe actually being right about this too late to fix anything and. . . it’ll suck. You, or at least your offspring, will wind up a coastal refugee suffering through alternating droughts and epic, hand-of-god hurricane seasons. Meanwhile, the changing climate will cause a massive redistribution of food and water resources, leading to sustained global war. It’ll be brutal, but it won’t be as bad as the true worst case sceneario: runaway global warming, e.g. Venus syndrome.

Venus syndrome refers to the speculated early history of Venus, where trapped greenhouse gases created a positive feedback loop eventually boiling away the planet’s oceans and leaving it a miasmic 460°C hell featuring an almost entirely carbon dioxide atmosphere with a sheet of sulfur dioxide clouds on top. In terms of future inhabtability and life in general, Venus syndrome would be a bit more like sustained global nuclear war than much of what we imagine happening in our current climate change scheme.
Quoting LargoFl:
Good point made there, tape wont protect you, shutters are best, but dont forget the roof..climbing up in the attic, securing better those roof trusses and support beams so it will better withstand the HUGE lifting forces in a hurricane, if the roof goes, so does your contents and maybe YOU with them


should be some interesting information to come from this conference.
March 27, 2012, 1:48 PM GMT.
Total’s North Sea Gas Leak Could Turn Into Lengthy Problem.
"The gas leak from French oil company Total’s Elgin oil field in the U.K. North Sea could turn into a lengthy problem for the company, not unlike the challenge BP faced shutting down its leaking well in the Gulf of Mexico two years ago."
more: Wall Street Journal
From previous blog:

Quoting Xyrus2000:


Climate change lags CO2 introduction by several decades. This is due to the fact that it takes time for the changes to fully impact the planet, including the triggered feedbacks. For example, it takes a while before the oceans (the largest heat sinks on the planet) to warm up and influence average global temperatures.

An estimated lag time in 40 years.

From the SkS post ”Climate Change: The 40 Year Delay Between Cause and Effect” by Alan Marshall

”With 40 years between cause and effect, it means that average temperatures of the last decade are a result of what we were thoughtlessly putting into the air in the 1960’s. It also means that the true impact of our emissions over the last decade will not be felt until the 2040’s. This thought should send a chill down your spine!”
From the last blog entry:

Quoting LargoFl:
ok lets play this out, suppose some here are correct, Man himself is causing global warming..so the earth is warming, the northern ice sheets melt. the oceans rise 5-10 feet..ok its happened....now what?...so people have to move inland..so what?...with moving away from the coasts, less will worry about hurricanes, i never heard a person complain about hurricanes in lets say montana..I fully think, global warming is sooo much better...than global cooling...a global ice age would destroy man.. his cities gone, his cropland burried under 100 feet or more of ice..poof..goes man..so bring on global warming, so it gets hot, maybe rainfall will change...maybe even thousands will die, but..man will still survive..just my take on this..lets talk it out fully..what are you..so scared about global warming?


"[S]o people have to move inland..so what?"

So nearly a billion of the planet's inhabitants live in areas that will be underwater if sea levels rise 5-10 feet. (Imagine temporarily evacuating a hundred thousand people from New Orleans in the face of Katrina. Now multiply that times 10,000. Now make that evacuation permanent.)

So those people will have to be relocated. And housed. And fed. And employed.

So trillions of dollars of real estate will be lost to the oceans. Industrial parks, CBDs, homes, commercial developments, all of them underwater. These will all have to be replaced.

So hundreds of thousands--perhaps millions--of acres of cropland will be lost to the waves. Hundreds of thousands more will lost to saltwater intrusion. This will all have to be replaced.

So trillions of dollars in infrastructure will be ruined--airports, highways, powerplants, schools, wells.This will all have to be replaced.

So this forced redistribution of such a large percentage of the world's inhabitants, cities, and nations is going to lead to massive societal and political upheaval far greater than anything humanity has faced in modern times.

And those are for starters.

We're not scared, as you asked. But we em.are concerned. Deeply, deeply concerned...
This look familiar.?
how can YOU..fight global warming? I have done MY part, I have planted 4 tree's, put in shrubs and plants on my property, I supported my town in gaining tree city status, which we won...we now cherish our life saving tree's....so what DO..tree's do to fight global warming......................................Heat from Earth is trapped in the atmosphere due to high levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other heat-trapping gases that prohibit it from releasing heat into space -- creating a phenomenon known as the "greenhouse effect." Trees remove (sequester) CO2 from the atmosphere during photosynthesis to form carbohydrates that are used in plant structure/function and return oxygen back to the atmosphere as a byproduct. About half of the greenhouse effect is caused by CO2. Trees therefore act as a carbon sink by removing the carbon and storing it as cellulose in their trunk, branches, leaves and roots while releasing oxygen back into the air.
Trees also reduce the greenhouse effect by shading our homes and office buildings. This reduces air conditioning needs up to 30%, thereby reducing the amount of fossil fuels burned to produce electricity. This combination of CO2 removal from the atmosphere, carbon storage in wood, and the cooling effect makes trees a very efficient tool in fighting the greenhouse effect. (11)

One tree that shades your home in the city will also save fossil fuel, cutting CO2 buildup as much as 15 forest trees. (16)

In one urban park (212 ha), tree cover was found to remove daily 48 lbs particulates, 9 lbs nitrogen dioxide, 6 lbs sulfur dioxide, and 1/2 lbs carbon monoxide. ($136 per day value based upon pollution control technology)

Planting trees remains one of the cheapest, most effective means of drawing excess CO2 from the atmosphere. (15)

A single mature tree can absorb carbon dioxide at a rate of 48 lbs./year and release enough oxygen back into the atmosphere to support 2 human beings. (10)

Each person in the U.S. generates approximately 2.3 tons of CO2 each year. A healthy tree stores about 13 pounds of carbon annually -- or 2.6 tons per acre each year. An acre of trees absorbs enough CO2 over one year to equal the amount produced by driving a car 26,000 miles. An estimate of carbon emitted per vehicle mile is between 0.88 lb. CO2/mi. – 1.06 lb. CO2/mi. (Nowak, 1993). Thus, a car driven 26,000 miles will emit between 22,880 lbs CO2 and 27,647 lbs. CO2. Thus, one acre of tree cover in Brooklyn can compensate for automobile fuel use equivalent to driving a car between 7,200 and 8,700 miles. (8)

If every American family planted just one tree, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere would be reduced by one billion lbs annually. This is almost 5% of the amount that human activity pumps into the atmosphere each year. (17)

The U.S. Forest Service estimates that all the forests in the United States combined sequestered a net of approximately 309 million tons of carbon per year from 1952 to 1992, offsetting approximately 25% of U.S. human-caused emissions of carbon during that period.
Over a 50-year lifetime, a tree generates $31,250 worth of oxygen, provides $62,000 worth of air pollution control, recycles $37,500 worth of water, and controls $31,250 worth of soil erosion. (2)
Quoting hydrus:
This look familiar.?


Looks like this past weekend system. However the models are all over the place this morning with this next upper level system.


Quoting Neapolitan:
From the last blog entry:



"[S]o people have to move inland..so what?"

So nearly a billion of the planet's inhabitants live in areas that will be underwater if sea levels rise 5-10 feet. (Imagine temporarily evacuating a hundred thousand people from New Orleans in the face of Katrina. Now multiply that times 10,000. Now make that evacuation permanent.)

So those people will have to be relocated. And housed. And fed. And employed.

So trillions of dollars of real estate will be lost to the oceans. Industrial parks, CBDs, homes, commercial developments, all of them underwater. These will all have to be replaced.

So hundreds of thousands--perhaps millions--of acres of cropland will be lost to the waves. Hundreds of thousands more will lost to saltwater intrusion. This will all have to be replaced.

So trillions of dollars in infrastructure will be ruined--airports, highways, powerplants, schools, wells.This will all have to be replaced.

So this forced redistribution of such a large percentage of the world's inhabitants, cities, and nations is going to lead to massive societal and political upheaval far greater than anything humanity has faced in modern times.

And those are for starters.

We're not scared, as you asked. But we em.are concerned. Deeply, deeply concerned...
good point made there..i posted something i found, on the extreme end of global warming..after reading and surfing the web, im afraid..global warming OR cooling..both..in the extreme...send us the way of the mamoths..poof
Some interesting weather coming..DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DIFFERENCES AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE THIS FORECAST...AND
WHILE NOT AS EXTREME AS IN PRIOR DAYS...THE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO
SUBSTANTIALLY COMPLICATED THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST -- PARTICULARLY
FROM DAY 6 /SUN 4-1/ ONWARD AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
BEGIN SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...A FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. LONG-WAVE RIDGE...DEEPENING A
BIT DAY 5 /SAT 3-31/ AS IT SHIFTS THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO THE ERN
CONUS. WHILE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND
THE ASSOCIATED/WEAK SURFACE LOW/FRONT...THE SYSTEM OVERALL DOES NOT
APPEAR POTENT ENOUGH TO DRIVE A MORE WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
EVENT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

AS THE LARGE WRN TROUGH BEGINS EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS LATER IN THE
PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER TO SOME DEGREE WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING...AND MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH RESPECT TO STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THESE DIFFERENCES ALOFT OBVIOUSLY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ON THE LOCATION AND ORIENTATION OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES --
WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A STRONG N-S COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MN SWD
TO THE TX/LA BORDER AT THE START OF DAY 7...WHILE THE ECMWF DEPICTS
A FRONT AT THIS TIME STRETCHING SWWD FROM A LOW OVER IA SWWD ACROSS
SERN OK INTO CENTRAL TX.

WHILE A BROAD SCALE VIEW SUGGESTS HEIGHTENED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WITH THE EJECTION OF SUCH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATION/STRONG SURFACE SYSTEM...THE ONGOING DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE MODELS PRECLUDE ANY SKILLFUL ATTEMPT AT HIGHLIGHTING
SMALLER-SCALE/CONCENTRATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS ATTM.

..GOSS.. 03/27/2012
Good Morning folks, sorry if I have posted too much this morning,just trying to start some interesting discussions...but ive come across this VERY important article on How to protect your home in the advent of a hurricane I thought some here might like to read ..and with this I stop posting LOL.....have a great day everyone...................................By Jack Williams, USATODAY.com

Any time a hurricane approaches the coast you're likely to see scenes of people wasting their time and energy "preparing" for the storm.

In fact, you might have seen these images so often that you think the folks shown are doing the correct thing.

If a hurricane is approaching, forget about:

Rushing to a building supply store to buy plywood for your windows.
Taping up your windows.
If your house is in danger of being hit by a hurricane, protecting windows and sliding glass doors is almost always the number one thing you can do to ensure you'll have a livable house if the worst happens.

But, if you wait until a hurricane watch is posted, you are almost surely too late.

Taping up windows is a waste of time because tape isn't going to keep your neighbor's garbage can - which he should have stashed in a place where the wind can't grab it - from breaking your window when a 100 mph wind flings it at your house.

True, the tape just might keep the glass from flying around the room when the garbage can hits it.

But an important rule for any wind storm is to not be in a room with windows that can be broken. If your house doesn't have a windowless room, you should at least do something like cowering behind an overturned table or a heavy sofa in case glass starts flying.

If you waste time taping your windows, about the best you can hope for is that the storm will miss your house, and the tape won't be too hard to remove.

While tape doesn't do much, heavy plywood or metal shutters are vital. But you can't wait until a storm is bearing down to go buy the plywood because by then it's almost surely too late.

This is because the plywood has to fit the windows and it has to be firmly attached to them.

Experts recommend using 3/4 inch plywood and drilling screw holes 18 inches apart all around it. Are you going to have time to do this after a watch is posted?

This is the kind of thing that should be done well ahead of time so the window covers will be stored with the screws started, and everything you'll need to install them,such as a ladder and the correct size screwdriver handy.

The big question you have to answer ahead of time is: Who's going to install the plywood covers, maybe with a 20 mph wind gusting to 30 mph as a storm approaches? It's probably a sure bet it's not going to be your 70-year-old mother, by herself.

Why is protecting windows so important?

Once a window is broken, the wind blows inside to not only wreck the interior, but also to apply upward pressure on the roof, which might be enough to sent if flying. If this happens, the walls collapse and your house is done for.

Protection can include impact-resistant glass or other permanent materials that have passed the state of Florida or Miami-Dade County (Fla.) impact standards tests, sturdy shutters, or pieces of marine plywood, marked and cut to fit each window and glass door.

Here are some other things you should do before a tropical storm or hurricane watch or warning is posted:

Remove weak and dead trees or tree limbs on your property.
Know whether your home is in a zone that could be flooded by storm surge, meaning you'd have to evacuate.
Have plans for where you will go if you evacuate, when you will leave (maybe early to avoid traffic jams), and how family members will contact each other.
If you might have to evacuate, have a "grab and run" bag ready with important papers, such as your home owners insurance policy, and prescription drugs.
If you live outside possible storm surge zones, and your house is sturdy, you should plan on riding out the storm in a "safe room" inside the house. (Related story: Home shelters can save lives).
Have an evacuation or survival kit ready with nonperishable food, water, a first aid kit and other things you'll need.
Have a battery-powered radio, maybe a battery-powered television set for keeping up with the latest advisories.
After a watch is posted, you should have done all of the things listed above. How you should stay tuned to forecasts and possible warnings. If you are in an area that could be flooded, you should be ready to evacuate.

Of course, if you are living in a mobile home, or a house that isn't sturdy enough to stand up to the wind, you should evacuate early and avoid the rush.
Quoting hydrus:
This look familiar.?


Seems to be the theme for the season to date anyways. This system seems to have a more pronounced negative tilt when emerging from the Rockies vs. than the last one.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Seems to be the theme for the season to date anyways. This system seems to have a more pronounced negative tilt when emerging from the Rockies vs. than the last one.
Yes. This system will have to be "tweaked" numerous times before they can pin down the severe weather aspects of it. I would guess the further south, the more moisture, but even thats up in the air...Pardon the pun if you will..
[With some paraphrasing] The world's deep ocean currents play a critical role in transporting heat and carbon around the planet, which helps regulate the Earth's climate.

Antarctic Bottom Water is formed where seawater is cooled by the overlying air and made saltier by ice formation, which leaves the salt behind in the unfrozen water. The cold, salty water is denser than the water around it, causing it to sink to the sea floor where it spreads northward, filling most of the deep ocean around the world as it slowly mixes with warmer waters above it.

Previous studies had indicated that this deep water has become warmer and less salty over the past few decades. But a new study by oceanographers examining temperature*data collected from 1980 to 2011 has found that significantly less Antarctic Bottom Water has been forming during this time...disappearing at an average rate of about 8 million metric tons per second over the past few decades, equivalent to about 50times the average flow of the Mississippi River.

* At distinct locations in ~10-year intervals by an international program of repeated ship-based oceanographic surveys in the Southern Ocean.
From which one might surmise that an ever-lower volume of Antarctic sea-ice is forming... or that an ever-increasing freshwater runoff from the AntarcticIceSheet is mixing with seawater off the Antarctic coast, reducing the salt concentration and thus increasing the surface-water's freezing-temperature while reducing the amount of concentrated brine produced during the surface-water freezing-process... or that both are occurring
Quoting hydrus:
This look familiar.?


Another freaking cut-off low?

UGH, -________________-.
Good morning all....thanks Dr. Masters
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Seems to be the theme for the season to date anyways. This system seems to have a more pronounced negative tilt when emerging from the Rockies vs. than the last one.


looks less negative to me, and cuts off just as it is rotating to the negative side.
The last one was strongly negative for a while, and then it cut off.
The latest GFS will be out shortly...
Quoting nigel20:
Good morning all....thanks Dr. Masters


G'morning, Mr. Thornberry, ^_^.
.
Quoting Cyclone2012:


G'morning, Mr. Thornberry, ^_^.

How are you doing Cyclone2012?
Quoting hydrus:
The latest GFS will be out shortly...


in 2 hours and you cant see it till 3 hours later anyway.
31. afj3

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
From previous blog:



A previous issue of Miami NWS Rainy Season Outlook has this statement:

"Looking back at years in which an early La Niña transitioned to neutral or weak El Niño conditions, the tendency is for a wetter than normal rainy season over South Florida."
Thank you!
March 26, 2011

March 26, 2012
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-03/pi fc-wrd032312.php

Weather records due to climate change: A game with loaded dice

The past decade has been one of unprecedented weather extremes. Scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany argue that the high incidence of extremes is not merely accidental. From the many single events a pattern emerges. At least for extreme rainfall and heat waves the link with human-caused global warming is clear, the scientists show in a new analysis of scientific evidence in the journal Nature Climate Change. Less clear is the link between warming and storms, despite the observed increase in the intensity of hurricanes.

In 2011 alone, the US was hit by 14 extreme weather events which caused damages exceeding one billion dollars each - in several states the months of January to October were the wettest ever recorded. Japan also registered record rainfalls, while the Yangtze river basin in China suffered a record drought. Similar record-breaking events occurred also in previous years. In 2010, Western Russia experienced the hottest summer in centuries, while in Pakistan and Australia record-breaking amounts of rain fell. 2003 saw Europe's hottest summer in at least half a millennium. And in 2002, the weather station of Zinnwald-Georgenfeld measured more rain in one day than ever before recorded anywhere in Germany - what followed was the worst flooding of the Elbe river for centuries.

"A question of probabilities"

"The question is whether these weather extremes are coincidental or a result of climate change," says Dim Coumou, lead author of the article. "Global warming can generally not be proven to cause individual extreme events - but in the sum of events the link to climate change becomes clear." This is what his analysis of data and published studies shows. "It is not a question of yes or no, but a question of probabilities," Coumou explains. The recent high incidence of weather records is no longer normal, he says.

"It's like a game with loaded dice," says Coumou. "A six can appear every now and then, and you never know when it happens. But now it appears much more often, because we have changed the dice." The past week illustrates this: between March 13th and 19th alone, historical heat records were exceeded in more than a thousand places in North America.
Quoting nigel20:

How are you doing Cyclone2012?


I'm great, man! Yourself?
I'm a bit busy.....later guys
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


looks less negative to me, and cuts off just as it is rotating to the negative side.
The last one was strongly negative for a while, and then it cut off.


My apologies. I was referring to when the system was first emerging from the Rockies into the Texas & Oklahoma panhandles.



Quoting ILwthrfan:


My apologies. I was referring to when the system was first emerging from the Rockies into the Texas & Oklahoma panhandles.





Well its a long way off so well see.
If anything shows up on the 4-8 day convective outlook, that would be a good sign. Im hoping it makes it to the SE, because nothing interesting has happened since the March 2 system.
We have been having some bad fire weather in Colorado lately. Last night one started in the foothills in Jefferson County and is 0% contained right now. Has burned 3,000 acres, 1 fatality, and 15 to 25 structures destroyed. The worst part, the fire was started by the reigniting of a controlled burn by the forest service a week ago. Would think they would make 100% sure that controlled burn is out, especially with the frequent strong winds and dry conditions along the front range.
Article Here Link

Image credit: Denver Post
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


in 2 hours and you cant see it till 3 hours later anyway.
?
Quoting Neapolitan:
From the last blog entry:



"[S]o people have to move inland..so what?"

So nearly a billion of the planet's inhabitants live in areas that will be underwater if sea levels rise 5-10 feet. (Imagine temporarily evacuating a hundred thousandblockquote>


But the sea will rise gradually, so eg when YOUR house or business is underwater, you move somewhere else.
Also there is plenty of empty office space due to the resession.
Quoting nigel20:

How are you doing Cyclone2012?


Hola a los dos.

Hi to both.
Quoting hydrus:
?


??

The 6z GFS is what i thought you were talking about, maybe you meant the 0Z run.
I'm on a web ex meeting about Flood Hazards using GIS, blog on one screen, and the lady talking and watching her screen on the other, fun stuff
Sea Surface Temperatures in GOM,Caribbean and Western Atlantic.

After several weeks of wonkiness and several days of downtime, the NCDC has finally upgraded their Weather Extremes page, and what an upgrade it is: pages that were taking 30 seconds to a minute to render now pop up in under three. Not sure whether they upgraded hardware, or simply cache the most common requests, but the page is very quick and responsive.

Anyway, here's a map showing the month-to-date daily high maximum temperature records in the contiguous United States, all 7,097 of them so far:

temps"


...and here's a map showing the 265 month-to-date low minimum temperature records in the contiguous United States:

temps"
Quoting MahFL:
But the sea will rise gradually, so eg when YOUR house or business is underwater, you move somewhere else.
Also there is plenty of empty office space due to the resession.
Sigh...
Quoting RitaEvac:
I'm on a web ex meeting about Flood Hazards using GIS, blog on one screen, and the lady talking and watching her screen on the other, fun stuff
that's no lady.. that's PATRAP!
Quoting LargoFl:
ok so what will happens with this global warming...found this great article...When we think of global warming, we think of things really sucking: rising oceans, catostrophic new weather patterns, disrupted food supply chains, Alaskan beach resorts. It’s all awful and very likely to happen, for global warming to hit its current worst case scenario. Because people are still pretty much idiots. Civilizations will reach concensus about climate change and science maybe actually being right about this too late to fix anything and. . . it’ll suck. You, or at least your offspring, will wind up a coastal refugee suffering through alternating droughts and epic, hand-of-god hurricane seasons. Meanwhile, the changing climate will cause a massive redistribution of food and water resources, leading to sustained global war. It’ll be brutal, but it won’t be as bad as the true worst case sceneario: runaway global warming, e.g. Venus syndrome.

Venus syndrome refers to the speculated early history of Venus, where trapped greenhouse gases created a positive feedback loop eventually boiling away the planet’s oceans and leaving it a miasmic 460°C hell featuring an almost entirely carbon dioxide atmosphere with a sheet of sulfur dioxide clouds on top. In terms of future inhabtability and life in general, Venus syndrome would be a bit more like sustained global nuclear war than much of what we imagine happening in our current climate change scheme.


Reproducing the runaway greenhouse effect of Venus on Earth is an extremely low probability event. It takes more than just CO2 to instigate such an effect, and given historical concentrations were much higher and the planet was much warmer it seems very unlikely. As much is stated in the IPCC report, along with with several research papers on the topic.

The worst case scenario would be that temperatures "run away" to the point of the Eocene maximum or so. But beyond that point it gets incredibly difficult to further increase temperature given that it takes a doubling of CO2 for approximately every 3C temperature rise. Jumps in short lived GHGs may be able to push it a little higher on a temporary basis, but it isn't sustainable. In order to generate a Venus like effect, the planet would need to become much warmer than that.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Reproducing the runaway greenhouse effect of Venus on Earth is an extremely low probability event. It takes more than just CO2 to instigate such an effect, and given historical concentrations were much higher and the planet was much warmer it seems very unlikely. As much is stated in the IPCC report, along with with several research papers on the topic.

The worst case scenario would be that temperatures "run away" to the point of the Eocene maximum or so. But beyond that point it gets incredibly difficult to further increase temperature given that it takes a doubling of CO2 for approximately every 3C temperature rise. Jumps in short lived GHGs may be able to push it a little higher on a temporary basis, but it isn't sustainable. In order to generate a Venus like effect, the planet would need to become much warmer than that.
I do not believe we will look like Venus any time soon either....Wiki....Venus is the second planet from the Sun, orbiting it every 224.7 Earth days.[10] The planet is named after Venus, the Roman goddess of love and beauty. After the Moon, it is the brightest natural object in the night sky, reaching an apparent magnitude of −4.6, bright enough to cast shadows. Because Venus is an inferior planet from Earth, it never appears to venture far from the Sun: its elongation reaches a maximum of 47.8°. Venus reaches its maximum brightness shortly before sunrise or shortly after sunset, for which reason it has been known as the Morning Star or Evening Star.

Venus is classified as a terrestrial planet and it is sometimes called Earth's "sister planet" owing to their similar size, gravity, and bulk composition. Venus is covered with an opaque layer of highly reflective clouds of sulfuric acid, preventing its surface from being seen from space in visible light. Venus has the densest atmosphere of all the terrestrial planets in the Solar System, consisting mostly of carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is 92 times that of the Earth. Venus has no carbon cycle to lock carbon back into rocks and surface features, nor does it seem to have any organic life to absorb it in biomass. Venus is believed to have previously possessed oceans,[12] but these evaporated as the temperature rose owing to the runaway greenhouse effect.[13] The water has most probably dissociated, and, because of the lack of a planetary magnetic field, the hydrogen has been swept into interplanetary space by the solar wind.[14] Venus's surface is a dry desertscape with many slab-like rocks, periodically refreshed by volcanism.Venus has an extremely dense atmosphere, which consists mainly of carbon dioxide and a small amount of nitrogen. The atmospheric mass is 93 times that of Earth's atmosphere while the pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times that at Earth's surface—a pressure equivalent to that at a depth of nearly 1 kilometer under Earth's oceans. The density at the surface is 65 kg/m³ (6.5% that of water). The CO2-rich atmosphere, along with thick clouds of sulfur dioxide, generates the strongest greenhouse effect in the Solar System, creating surface temperatures of over 460 °C (860 °F).[38] This makes the Venusian surface hotter than Mercury's which has a minimum surface temperature of −220 °C and maximum surface temperature of 420 °C,[39] even though Venus is nearly twice Mercury's distance from the Sun and thus receives only 25% of Mercury's solar irradiance. The surface of Venus is often said to resemble traditional accounts of Hell.[40]

Studies have suggested that several billion years ago the Venusian atmosphere was much more like Earth's than it is now, and that there were probably substantial quantities of liquid water on the surface, but a runaway greenhouse effect was caused by the evaporation of that original water, which generated a critical level of greenhouse gases in its atmosphere.[41] Although the surface conditions on the planet are no longer hospitable to any Earthlike life that may have formed prior to this event, the possibility that a habitable niche still exists in the lower and middle cloud layers of Venus can not yet be excluded.[42]

Thermal inertia and the transfer of heat by winds in the lower atmosphere mean that the temperature of the Venusian surface does not vary significantly between the night and day sides, despite the planet's extremely slow rotation. Winds at the surface are slow, moving at a few kilometers per hour, but because of the high density of the atmosphere at the Venusian surface, they exert a significant amount of force against obstructions, and transport dust and small stones across the surface. This alone would make it difficult for a human to walk through, even if the heat and lack of oxygen were not a problem.[43]

Above the dense CO2 layer are thick clouds consisting mainly of sulfur dioxide and sulfuric acid droplets.[44][45] These clouds reflect about 60% of the sunlight that falls on them back into space, and prevent the direct observation of the Venusian surface in visible light. The permanent cloud cover means that although Venus is closer than Earth to the Sun, the Venusian surface is not as well lit. Strong 300 km/h winds at the cloud tops circle the planet about every four to five earth days.[46] Venusian winds move at up to 60 times the speed of the planet's rotation, while Earth's fastest winds are only 10% to 20% rotation speed.[47]

The surface of Venus is effectively isothermal; it retains a constant temperature not only between day and night but between the equator and the poles.[2][48] The planet's minute axial tilt (less than three degrees, compared with 23 degrees for Earth), also minimizes seasonal temperature variation.[49] The only appreciable variation in temperature occurs with altitude. In 1995, the Magellan probe imaged a highly reflective substance at the tops of the highest mountain peaks which bore a strong resemblance to terrestrial snow. This substance arguably formed from a similar process to snow, albeit at a far higher temperature. Too volatile to condense on the surface, it rose in gas form to cooler higher elevations, where it then fell as precipitation. The identity of this substance is not known with certainty, but speculation has ranged from elemental tellurium to lead sulfide (galena).[50]

The clouds of Venus are capable of producing lightning much like the clouds on Earth.[51] The existence of lightning had been controversial since the first suspected bursts were detected by the Soviet Venera probes. In 2006–07 Venus Express clearly detected whistler mode waves, the signatures of lightning. Their intermittent appearance indicates a pattern associated with weather activity. The lightning rate is at least half of that on Earth.[51] In 2007 the Venus Express probe discovered that a huge double atmospheric vortex exists at the south pole of the planet.[52][53]

Another discovery made by the Venus Express probe in 2011 is that an ozone layer exists high in the atmosphere of Venus.[54]
Magnetic field and core
Size comparison of terrestrial planets (left to right): Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars

In 1967, Venera-4 found that the Venusian magnetic field is much weaker than that of Earth. This magnetic field is induced by an interaction between the ionosphere and the solar wind,[55][56] rather than by an internal dynamo in the core like the one inside the Earth. Venus' small induced magnetosphere provides negligible protection to the atmosphere against cosmic radiation. This radiation may result in cloud-to-cloud lightning discharges.[57]

The lack of an intrinsic magnetic field at Venus was surprising given that it is similar to Earth in size, and was expected also to contain a dynamo at its core. A dynamo requires three things: a conducting liquid, rotation, and convection. The core is thought to be electrically conductive and, while its rotation is often thought to be too slow, simulations show that it is adequate to produce a dynamo.[58][59] This implies that the dynamo is missing because of a lack of convection in the Venusian core. On Earth, convection occurs in the liquid outer layer of the core because the bottom of the liquid layer is much hotter than the topVenus orbits the Sun at an average distance of about 108 million kilometers (about 0.7 AU) and completes an orbit every 224.65 days. Venus is the second planet from the Sun and it revolves round the Sun approximately 1.6 times (yellow trail) in Earth's 365 days (blue trail)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Teen survives 26 days adrift in Pacific Ocean


That is an incredible story.
Quoting hydrus:
That is an incredible story.
Quoting hydrus:
That is an incredible story.


Amazing the will to survive.
Stephen Hawking and Carl Sagan on the Greenhouse Effect

Quoting Neapolitan:
After several weeks of wonkiness and several days of downtime, the NCDC has finally upgraded their Weather Extremes page, and what an upgrade it is: pages that were taking 30 seconds to a minute to render now pop up in under three. Not sure whether they upgraded hardware, or simply cache the most common requests, but the page is very quick and responsive.

Anyway, here's a map showing the month-to-date daily high maximum temperature records in the contiguous United States, all 7,097 of them so far:

temps"


...and here's a map showing the 265 month-to-date low minimum temperature records in the contiguous United States:

temps"

That's quite unbelievable....good afternoon guys
2 LargoFl: Good morning..global warming has changed into global cooling..another ICE AGE has occured....ok what happens now? ......Another ice age would result in very large ice caps covering the Northern Latitudes & the Southern Latitudes and this would cause the almost 7 billion people of planet Earth to live closer together in a smaller area that which we are spread out now. Sea levels would drop almost 400 feet depending upon the strength of the Ice Age. There would be a much reduced area to grow food and definitely not nearly enough to feed 7 billion people.

Hardly, it ain't as if many folks live in the tundra and taiga regions right now, or in the deserts and mountains. And certainly not much agriculture going on there.
Meanwhile the continental shelves become exposed, creating new land.

And just the type of mostly gently sloping land that people like to live on, and the type that lends itself well to current agricultural practices.
Florida doubles in size. The Bahamas becomes about as large as Haiti in land area.
Arable land in California easily doubles.
Non-mountainous land on the west coast of Baja doubles. The Sea of Cortez between Baja and the rest of Mexico becomes land. In both cases, probably arable land because the TemperateZone moves southward and the mountainous spine of Baja becomes high enough to encourage greater precipitation. Arable land in Mexico comes close to doubling.
The southern half of Vietnam ("Asia's Rice Basket") increases by 50% or so. Though not to such a great extent, similar increases occur in Cambodia, Thailand, and Burma.
Arable land increases in Bangladesh by a third or so.
SriLanka becomes attached to the southern tip of India, greatly increasing its amount of arable land.
The northern SaharaDesert becomes grassland once again.
Etc...
Quoting ILwthrfan:





Quoting Xandra:
Stephen Hawking and Carl Sagan on the Greenhouse Effect



That guy looks like Larry King. LOL
impressive picture of a rainbow over Charlotte, NC

Charlotte Rainbow
Quoting aspectre:
2 LargoFl: Good morning..global warming has changed into global cooling..another ICE AGE has occured....ok what happens now? ......Another ice age would result in very large ice caps covering the Northern Latitudes & the Southern Latitudes and this would cause the almost 7 billion people of planet Earth to live closer together in a smaller area that which we are spread out now. Sea levels would drop almost 400 feet depending upon the strength of the Ice Age. There would be a much reduced area to grow food and definitely not nearly enough to feed 7 billion people.

Hardly, it ain't as if many folks live in the tundra and taiga regions right now, or in the deserts and mountains. And certainly not much agriculture going on there.
Meanwhile the continental shelves become exposed, creating new land. And just the type of mostly gently sloping land that people like to live on, and the type that lends itself well to current agricultural practices.

header
Florida doubles in size. The Bahamas becomes about as large as Haiti in land area.
Arable land in California easily doubles.
Non-mountainous land on the west coast of Baja doubles. The Sea of Cortez between Baja and the rest of Mexico becomes land. In both cases, probably arable land because the TemperateZone moves southward and the mountainous spine of Baja becomes high enough to encourage greater precipitation. Arable land in Mexico at least doubles.
The southern half of Vietnam ("Asia's Rice Basket") increases by 50% or so. Though not to such a great extent, similar increases occur in Cambodia, Thailand, and Burma.
Arable land increases in Bangladesh by a third or so.
SriLanka becomes attached to the southern tip of India, greatly increasing the amount of arable land of both.
The SaharaDesert becomes grassland once again.
Etc...

Nice piece of inf....thanks for sharing it
Larger wunderphoto




photo by Maciejewski Tuesday March 27, 2012 Ocean City, NJ


WALLOPS ISLAND, VA NASA successfully launched five suborbital sounding rockets this morning from its Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia as part of a study of the upper level jet stream. The first rocket was launched at 4:58 a.m. EDT and each subsequent rocket was launched 80 seconds apart. Each of the rockets released a chemical tracer that created milky, white clouds at the edge of space.
Quoting mettler:
impressive picture of a rainbow over Charlotte, NC

Charlotte Rainbow
That's an incredible shot. He's selling them as metal prints, which should be really amazing.
Quoting mettler:
impressive picture of a rainbow over Charlotte, NC

Charlotte Rainbow


That's a hail core in the background.
Another round of heavy rains caused by the diurnal heating in PR.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
225 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

PRC025-063-077-085-129-272130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0059.120327T1825Z-120327T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-GURABO PR-JUNCOS PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-SAN LORENZO PR-
225 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...GURABO...JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS AND SAN LORENZO

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 224 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST AROUND 5 MPH.
RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
SHOWERS. THIS COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS..POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBAN AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1825 6588 1825 6585 1828 6584 1826 6582
1818 6583 1817 6586 1812 6588 1812 6592
1809 6594 1810 6598 1808 6602 1821 6611
1825 6608 1830 6607 1831 6605 1831 6597

$$

ROSA
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's an incredible shot. He's selling them as metal prints, which should be really amazing.


You see the hail in the background?
Quoting Patrap:
Larger wunderphoto




photo by Maciejewski Tuesday March 27, 2012 Ocean City, NJ


WALLOPS ISLAND, VA NASA successfully launched five suborbital sounding rockets this morning from its Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia as part of a study of the upper level jet stream. The first rocket was launched at 4:58 a.m. EDT and each subsequent rocket was launched 80 seconds apart. Each of the rockets released a chemical tracer that created milky, white clouds at the edge of space.

Awesome pic
After nice cool day of 82 on Monday it's now back to 87 approaching 90.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Another round of heavy rains caused by the diurnal heating in PR.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
225 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

PRC025-063-077-085-129-272130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0059.120327T1825Z-120327T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-GURABO PR-JUNCOS PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-SAN LORENZO PR-
225 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...GURABO...JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS AND SAN LORENZO

* UNTIL 530 PM AST

* AT 224 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST AROUND 5 MPH.
RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
SHOWERS. THIS COULD CAUSE FLOODING OF STREETS..POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBAN AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1825 6588 1825 6585 1828 6584 1826 6582
1818 6583 1817 6586 1812 6588 1812 6592
1809 6594 1810 6598 1808 6602 1821 6611
1825 6608 1830 6607 1831 6605 1831 6597

$$

ROSA

Just had quite a downpour here Kingston.....what's up Tropicsweatherpr?
Is supposed to be the dry period in Puerto Rico and adjacent islands,but this 2012 March has been all the contrary from that as rainfall records continue to be broken or close to do so.

Nigel,I am fine.

CLIMATE...MARCH 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD WETTEST MARCH
ON RECORD THE SAN JUAN OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATION WITH A TOTAL OF
6.31 INCHES. THE WETTEST MARCH ON RECORD WAS 1927 WHEN 9.38 INCHES
WERE MEASURED.

FOR ST. THOMAS...MARCH 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE FIFTH WETTEST
MARCH ON RECORD WITH 3.24 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR. THE WETTEST
MARCH ON RECORD WAS 1961 WHEN 4.37 INCHES WERE MEASURED.

FOR ST. CROIX...MARCH 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE FOURTH WETTEST
YEAR ON RECORD WITH 2.92 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR. THE WETTEST
MARCH ON RECORD WAS 1985 WHEN 4.15 INCHES WERE MEASURED.
Bahrain, seen from space

Quoting RitaEvac:
Bahrain, seen from space


Nice man made islands....similar to those in Dubai



Mar. 7, 2012: The Sahara remains amazing. A mysterious crater in Mauritania -- but what is it?



Feb. 10, 2012: Denmark with Copenhagen, Norway with Oslo, Sweden with Stockholm in the distance, northern Germany and beyond. And the Aurora Borealis of course.




Dubai
Quoting RitaEvac:
Bahrain, seen from space

The wise man builds his house on the rock...
Quoting RitaEvac:



Mar. 7, 2012: The Sahara remains amazing. A mysterious crater in Mauritania -- but what is it?



Feb. 10, 2012: Denmark with Copenhagen, Norway with Oslo, Sweden with Stockholm in the distance, northern Germany and beyond. And the Aurora Borealis of course.





Is it a Coal mine or a asteroid crater?
Quoting nigel20:

Is it a Coal mine or a asteroid crater?


No one knows
Quoting nigel20:

Is it a Coal mine or a asteroid crater?


Richat Structure
Fierce Old Warplane Has a New Mission: Flying Into the Hearts of Thunderstorms

Equipped with heavy armor and an impressively 
powerful cannon,
the A-10 Thunderbolt was built to survive.

by Adam Hadhazy
From Discovery March 2012 issue;
published online March 27, 2012


The National Science Foundation provided $10.9 million to convert an old military A-10 Thunderbolt into the world’s most formidable storm-chasing research vessel, outfitted to withstand the lightning, turbulence, and hail that big clouds unleash. “The A-10 was designed to be shot at,” says Paul Smith, an atmospheric scientist at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, who helped acquire the aircraft.

The A-10 will replace the T-28 Trojan, which retired from chasing storms in 2005. It can soar more than eight miles high compared with the T-28’s five, carrying meteorological equipment into the tops of thunderheads where lightning is generated. Optical imagers will use lasers to cast shadows, capturing the motion of rain, hail, and snow. And the A-10 can stay aloft for three hours, three times as long as the T-28, allowing researchers to observe a storm’s full life cycle. The data could improve precipitation forecasts and models of hail formation, ultimately providing more accurate and timely warnings for hurricanes and other severe weather.
Euro is back on to a deep push of Arctic Air across the eastern US.


EWX radar is down due to the first dual polarization upgrade of the 88D (Nexrad).

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Richat Structure

It's origin is still debatable......thanks VAbeachhurricanes
Good afternoon all.

The GFS has backed off the Severe Weather/Tornado outbreak it was showing last night for next week (at least...it wouldn't be /as major/ if the current run came true). We will have to wait and see though, as there are extreme model differences with the ECMWF showing a similar outbreak, but in a different timeframe.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good afternoon all.

The GFS has backed off the Severe Weather/Tornado outbreak it was showing next week (at least...it wouldn't be /as major/ if the current run came true). We will have to wait and see though, as there are extreme model differences with the ECMWF showing a similar outbreak, but in a different timeframe.


I agree huge differences even at day 5 between the models. All I know is it's hot here in FL and it's going to get hotter as highs are expected to around 90 from Thursday on. It's 88 here right now.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Euro is back on to a deep push of Arctic Air across the eastern US.




What a flip-flopping model, it behaves the SAME way during hurricane season. Which is what makes it so EXTRAORDINARILY unreliable.
On March 27, 1912, first lady Helen Herron Taft and the wife of Japan's ambassador to the United States, Viscountess Chinda, planted the first of 3,000 cherry trees given to us as a gift by the mayor of Tokyo on the north bank of Washington D.C.'s Tidal Basin.

A work of great beauty was begun. 100 years ago today.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good afternoon all.

The GFS has backed off the Severe Weather/Tornado outbreak it was showing next week (at least...it wouldn't be /as major/ if the current run came true). We will have to wait and see though, as there are extreme model differences with the ECMWF showing a similar outbreak, but in a different timeframe.

Good afternoon
The heat wave is on again in Europe, and even stronger than it was yesterday or the day before. Temperatures reached 71 in Kristiansand, Norway, today, breaking the old record for the day by 16 degrees. Scotland set a new national all-time March high temperature record for the third straight day, this time reaching 23.6C (74.5F) in Aboyne. And meanwhile, much of the rest of the UK made it into the mid and upper 60s today, while parrts of France climbed well into the 70s.

Closer to home, the Lower North Fork Fire southwest of Denver is raging out of control spurred on by extremely dry air and winds gusting to 90. So far, two people are confirmed dead, a number of homes have been destroyed, and owners of thousands more have been given pre-evacuation notices. The fire is at 4,500 acres and is 0% contained.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good afternoon all.

The GFS has backed off the Severe Weather/Tornado outbreak it was showing last night for next week (at least...it wouldn't be /as major/ if the current run came true). We will have to wait and see though, as there are extreme model differences with the ECMWF showing a similar outbreak, but in a different timeframe.

Good afternoon. I think that's why we don't trust the models that far out. 18z GFs could easily show the same mega outbreak it showed last night. I don't trust the current solution any more than last night's.
Where was (or is) that Outbreak supposed to take place, exactly?
Quoting Neapolitan:
The heat wave is on again in Europe, and even stronger than it was yesterday or the day before. Temperatures reached 71 in Kristiansand, Norway, today, breaking the old record for the day by 16 degrees. Scotland set a new national all-time March high temperature record for the third straight day, this time reaching 23.6C (74.5F) in Aboyne. And meanwhile, much of the rest of the UK made it into the mid and upper 60s today, while parrts of France climbed well into the 70s.

Closer to home, the Lower North Fork Fire southwest of Denver is raging out of control spurred on by extremely dry air and winds gusting to 90. So far, two people are confirmed dead, a number of homes have been destroyed, and owners of thousands more have been given pre-evacuation notices. The fire is at 4,500 acres and is 0% contained.

So sad, sorry to hear that
Really?? Why can't it stay warm?

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
322 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

NCZ105-280400-
INLAND PENDER-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BURGAW
322 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

...PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...

ALTHOUGH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED...SOME OF THE
TRADITIONALLY COLDER SPOTS IN PENDER COUNTY COULD SEE READINGS
DROP INTO THE MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FROST...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE
AUTOMOBILE WINDSHIELDS AND ROOFS. ESPECIALLY COLD-TENDER
VEGETATION MAY BE SUBJECT TO DAMAGE.

$$
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Really?? Why can't it stay warm?

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
322 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

NCZ105-280400-
INLAND PENDER-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BURGAW
322 PM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

...PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...

ALTHOUGH FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED...SOME OF THE
TRADITIONALLY COLDER SPOTS IN PENDER COUNTY COULD SEE READINGS
DROP INTO THE MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FROST...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE
AUTOMOBILE WINDSHIELDS AND ROOFS. ESPECIALLY COLD-TENDER
VEGETATION MAY BE SUBJECT TO DAMAGE.

$$


I thought you lived in Miami, FL.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The heat wave is on again in Europe, and even stronger than it was yesterday or the day before. Temperatures reached 71 in Kristiansand, Norway, today, breaking the old record for the day by 16 degrees. Scotland set a new national all-time March high temperature record for the third straight day, this time reaching 23.6C (74.5F) in Aboyne. And meanwhile, much of the rest of the UK made it into the mid and upper 60s today, while parrts of France climbed well into the 70s.

Closer to home, the Lower North Fork Fire southwest of Denver is raging out of control spurred on by extremely dry air and winds gusting to 90. So far, two people are confirmed dead, a number of homes have been destroyed, and owners of thousands more have been given pre-evacuation notices. The fire is at 4,500 acres and is 0% contained.

The Weather Channel just reported that this number has went up to 3 fatalities...sad indeed.

Quoting 7080734:
Where was (or is) that Outbreak supposed to take place, exactly?

Central Plains into Mississippi Valley in the early/middle portions of next week.
Quoting Cyclone2012:


I thought you lived in Miami, FL.

What? No..
No offense, but could you be more specific? Like, states? Thank you.
Quoting Cyclone2012:


What a flip-flopping model, it behaves the SAME way during hurricane season. Which is what makes it so EXTRAORDINARILY unreliable.

I'm not saying it's always good or anything but it's the most reliable model there is...
Quoting 7080734:
No offense, but could you be more specific? Like, states? Thank you.

Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, and after that, it's kinda blurry.

It's still kinda blurry for the locations I mentioned above.
Quoting Neapolitan:


Closer to home, the Lower North Fork Fire southwest of Denver is raging out of control spurred on by extremely dry air and winds gusting to 90. So far, two people are confirmed dead, a number of homes have been destroyed, and owners of thousands more have been given pre-evacuation notices. The fire is at 4,500 acres and is 0% contained.


I snapped this photo of the Lower North Fork Fire on my way home last night. It's really disheartening to have such a destructive (and now deadly) fire so early in the season...

Lower North Fork Fire (32/366)

(Click image to embiggen)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, and after that, it's kinda blurry.

It's still kinda blurry for the locations I mentioned above.

Ah, thanks. I hope it doesn't happen, we don't need anymore destruction or anything.

So, like, nothing in Northen Illinois, right? I have really bad astraphobia, sooo... Thanks for your help!
Good afternoon.

I have a new post up on the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, March 27th, with Video
Quoting Neapolitan:
The heat wave is on again in Europe, and even stronger than it was yesterday or the day before. Temperatures reached 71 in Kristiansand, Norway, today, breaking the old record for the day by 16 degrees. Scotland set a new national all-time March high temperature record for the third straight day, this time reaching 23.6C (74.5F) in Aboyne. And meanwhile, much of the rest of the UK made it into the mid and upper 60s today, while parrts of France climbed well into the 70s.

Closer to home, the Lower North Fork Fire southwest of Denver is raging out of control spurred on by extremely dry air and winds gusting to 90. So far, two people are confirmed dead, a number of homes have been destroyed, and owners of thousands more have been given pre-evacuation notices. The fire is at 4,500 acres and is 0% contained.


The haze over the front range is pretty clear from my window right now from the fire, but nothing like the smoke we could see yesterday with the strong SW winds. Drainage winds tonight might bring some smoke towards the city later tonight. At least the winds have calmed down enough that they can get the planes up there today. Might try and drive up into the foothills a little bit towards sunset and snap some photos if I have time.
Colorado Fire Update
Quoting Cyclone2012:


What a flip-flopping model, it behaves the SAME way during hurricane season. Which is what makes it so EXTRAORDINARILY unreliable.


LOL! You can't be serious about the Euro being unreliable. Models have been all over the place yes but I think this is largely due to the fact that La-Nina has basically moved to nuetral. Infact all the models are all over the place right now.


106. txjac
Quoting JNCali:
Colorado Fire Update


I dislike seeing pictures like these ...brings back memories of last year when things were more dry here. Hopefully they have it under control soon. Are there reasons that it is taking so long to get it under control? Is it in an area that is hard to get to or just not enough manpower?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What? No..


Oh, I'm sorry, I thought you did. Since I hear you talking about the tropics so much.
Quoting Cyclone2012:


Oh, I'm sorry, I thought you did. Since I hear you talking about the tropics so much.

I live on the southeast coast of North Carolina.
Quoting txjac:


I dislike seeing pictures like these ...brings back memories of last year when things were more dry here. Hopefully they have it under control soon. Are there reasons that it is taking so long to get it under control? Is it in an area that is hard to get to or just not enough manpower?

Both.

The fire has burned at least 4,500 acres and is still burning out of control due to the very strong and dry conditions there.
Quoting txjac:


I dislike seeing pictures like these ...brings back memories of last year when things were more dry here. Hopefully they have it under control soon. Are there reasons that it is taking so long to get it under control? Is it in an area that is hard to get to or just not enough manpower?


The winds yesterday were atrocious... very gusty. Humidity was something like 3%. Combine that with steep terrain, narrow roads, and our driest March on record and we are basically in a situation where the fire is impossible contain without help from mother nature. Luckily the winds have been lighter today, but it's still dry as a bone here and fires this size tend to kick up their own, unpredictable winds. It's not a good situation at all. I have officially lost my Spring Fever - I miss winter...
2.6 Mag Quake


San Bernardino

Quoting LargoFl:
good morning..global warming has changed into global cooling..another ICE AGE has occured....ok what happens now? ......Another ice age would result in very large ice caps covering the Northern Latitudes & the Southern Latitudes and this would cause the almost 7 billion people of planet Earth to live closer together in a smaller area that which we are spread out now. As an example, all of Canada would be covered by an ice cap, as would Great Britain, Scandinavia, Nothern Russia & all of Alaska.

Sea levels would drop almost 400 feet depending upon the strength of the Ice Age. There would be a much reduced area to grow food and definitely not nearly enough to feed 7 billion people. Nuclear War would very likely break out over the best areas to live and to survive and this in itself could cause manking to become an extinct species.

Source(s):



Global Cooling? I myself may be skeptical of certain aspects of Climate Change, but one thing I will tell you is that we are not experiencing Global Cooling, and there is no sign that we will. If you really believe so, how did you come to your conclusion?


All scientific evidence tells us that we need to do away with fossil fuel because continuing to add massive amounts of CO2 is quite harmful to the Climate. Although I doubt we will be "baking" in 20 years, disrupting the balance of the Earths Climate isn't exactly good, this is our home, after all.

Not only should fossil fuels be done away with, but we need to move towards overall improved environmental responsibility. We need to be care takers of the Earth, not destroyers of it.

I won't incite panic over the problem, but ignoring the problem is even worse.


BTW I probably live within 3 or 4 miles of you seeing that your name is LargoFl, so listen carefully :) lol
113. txjac
Quoting MrMixon:


The winds yesterday were atrocious... very gusty. Humidity was something like 3%. Combine that with steep terrain, narrow roads, and our driest March on record and we are basically in a situation where the fire is impossible contain without help from mother nature. Luckily the winds have been lighter today, but it's still dry as a bone here and fires this size tend to kick up their own, unpredictable winds. It's not a good situation at all. I have officially lost my Spring Fever - I miss winter...


Very sorry to hear this, will be in my thoughts and prayers
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Both.

The fire has burned at least 4,500 acres and is still burning out of control due to the very strong and dry conditions there.



Not many wet places across the country these days.


Quoting Patrap:
2.6 Mag Quake

San Bernardino

But what about the 3.5 a minute before?

quake
Dry season?
Quoting Levi32:
Good afternoon.

I have a new post up on the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, March 27th, with Video

Thanks Levi
Quoting Neapolitan:
But what about the 3.5 a minute before?

quake





Doom ?



..or just Tuesday regla Doom?
Quoting Patrap:
BREAKING: Obama Administration To Establish Strong Carbon Pollution Limits For New Power Plants
By Brad Johnson on Mar 26, 2012 at 10:14 pm


In one of the most significant reversals of Bush-era policy, the Obama administration plans tomorrow to issue greenhouse pollution limits for new power plants, a major step in the fight against global warming. The new rule — which will go into effect in 2013 — confirms the end of the era of dirty coal-fired power plants:

The proposed rule — years in the making and approved by the White House after months of review — will require any new power plant to emit no more than 1,000 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt of electricity produced. The average U.S. natural gas plant, which emits between 800 and 850 pounds of CO2 per megawatt, meets that standard; coal plants emit an average of 1,768 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt.

Since the late 1990s, “natural gas has been the fuel of choice for the majority of new generating units,” and in the 2000s, wind power generation also grew significantly. With the high cost of its toxic pollution from mine to plant, coal has been losing out to cleaner sources of fuel in the electric utility sector. Although few new coal plants have been built in the last twenty years, aging plants — some built in the 1930s — still produce about 40 percent of U.S. electricity, and about 80 percent of carbon pollution from the power sector.

In March 2001, newly elected President George W. Bush reversed a campaign pledge to limit greenhouse pollution from power plants, the source of 40 percent of United States global warming pollution. In 2008, Bush White House officials refused to open an email sent by its own Environmental Protection Agency which called for action against man-made climate change.

“This is the third major executive action launched by the Obama administration to reduce carbon pollution,” writes Center for American Progress senior fellow Daniel Weiss. “With growing evidence that the serious impacts of climate change are already here, President Obama deserves credit for this new standard. We must urgently adopt and implement these new pollution reduction standards for power plants.”



I highly doubt President Obama is doing this because he actually wants to, it sounds like a political move to gain votes. Whatever, at least its being done, regardless of the amount of heart and soul involved.
Quoting Patrap:





Doom ?

..or just Tuesday regla Doom?
There was one at the same location two hours ago, as well (a 1.9). I called my aunt who lives two miles from the center of the 3.5; she was napping and didn't feel any of them. Old people... ;-)
The Soaps are still on, over on the West Coast so, yeah..

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
403 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 359 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER CENTRAL
PECOS COUNTY...OR 25 MILES SOUTH OF FORT STOCKTON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTHERN PECOS COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME... TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE
HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE... SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT... SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT... DITCH OR
LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 10247 3032 10275 3056 10291 3066 10274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 325DEG 8KT 3053 10277

$$
Quoting hydrus:
I do not believe we will look like Venus any time soon either....Wiki....Venus is the second planet from the Sun, orbiting it every 224.7 Earth days.[10] The planet is named after Venus, the Roman goddess of love and beauty. After the Moon, it is the brightest natural object in the night sky, reaching an apparent magnitude of −4.6, bright enough to cast shadows. Because Venus is an inferior planet from Earth, it never appears to venture far from the Sun: its elongation reaches a maximum of 47.8°. Venus reaches its maximum brightness shortly before sunrise or shortly after sunset, for which reason it has been known as the Morning Star or Evening Star.

Venus is classified as a terrestrial planet and it is sometimes called Earth's "sister planet" owing to their similar size, gravity, and bulk composition. Venus is covered with an opaque layer of highly reflective clouds of sulfuric acid, preventing its surface from being seen from space in visible light. Venus has the densest atmosphere of all the terrestrial planets in the Solar System, consisting mostly of carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is 92 times that of the Earth. Venus has no carbon cycle to lock carbon back into rocks and surface features, nor does it seem to have any organic life to absorb it in biomass. Venus is believed to have previously possessed oceans,[12] but these evaporated as the temperature rose owing to the runaway greenhouse effect.[13] The water has most probably dissociated, and, because of the lack of a planetary magnetic field, the hydrogen has been swept into interplanetary space by the solar wind.[14] Venus's surface is a dry desertscape with many slab-like rocks, periodically refreshed by volcanism.Venus has an extremely dense atmosphere, which consists mainly of carbon dioxide and a small amount of nitrogen. The atmospheric mass is 93 times that of Earth's atmosphere while the pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times that at Earth's surface—a pressure equivalent to that at a depth of nearly 1 kilometer under Earth's oceans. The density at the surface is 65 kg/m³ (6.5% that of water). The CO2-rich atmosphere, along with thick clouds of sulfur dioxide, generates the strongest greenhouse effect in the Solar System, creating surface temperatures of over 460 °C (860 °F).[38] This makes the Venusian surface hotter than Mercury's which has a minimum surface temperature of −220 °C and maximum surface temperature of 420 °C,[39] even though Venus is nearly twice Mercury's distance from the Sun and thus receives only 25% of Mercury's solar irradiance. The surface of Venus is often said to resemble traditional accounts of Hell.[40]

Studies have suggested that several billion years ago the Venusian atmosphere was much more like Earth's than it is now, and that there were probably substantial quantities of liquid water on the surface, but a runaway greenhouse effect was caused by the evaporation of that original water, which generated a critical level of greenhouse gases in its atmosphere.[41] Although the surface conditions on the planet are no longer hospitable to any Earthlike life that may have formed prior to this event, the possibility that a habitable niche still exists in the lower and middle cloud layers of Venus can not yet be excluded.[42]

Thermal inertia and the transfer of heat by winds in the lower atmosphere mean that the temperature of the Venusian surface does not vary significantly between the night and day sides, despite the planet's extremely slow rotation. Winds at the surface are slow, moving at a few kilometers per hour, but because of the high density of the atmosphere at the Venusian surface, they exert a significant amount of force against obstructions, and transport dust and small stones across the surface. This alone would make it difficult for a human to walk through, even if the heat and lack of oxygen were not a problem.[43]

Above the dense CO2 layer are thick clouds consisting mainly of sulfur dioxide and sulfuric acid droplets.[44][45] These clouds reflect about 60% of the sunlight that falls on them back into space, and prevent the direct observation of the Venusian surface in visible light. The permanent cloud cover means that although Venus is closer than Earth to the Sun, the Venusian surface is not as well lit. Strong 300 km/h winds at the cloud tops circle the planet about every four to five earth days.[46] Venusian winds move at up to 60 times the speed of the planet's rotation, while Earth's fastest winds are only 10% to 20% rotation speed.[47]

The surface of Venus is effectively isothermal; it retains a constant temperature not only between day and night but between the equator and the poles.[2][48] The planet's minute axial tilt (less than three degrees, compared with 23 degrees for Earth), also minimizes seasonal temperature variation.[49] The only appreciable variation in temperature occurs with altitude. In 1995, the Magellan probe imaged a highly reflective substance at the tops of the highest mountain peaks which bore a strong resemblance to terrestrial snow. This substance arguably formed from a similar process to snow, albeit at a far higher temperature. Too volatile to condense on the surface, it rose in gas form to cooler higher elevations, where it then fell as precipitation. The identity of this substance is not known with certainty, but speculation has ranged from elemental tellurium to lead sulfide (galena).[50]

The clouds of Venus are capable of producing lightning much like the clouds on Earth.[51] The existence of lightning had been controversial since the first suspected bursts were detected by the Soviet Venera probes. In 2006–07 Venus Express clearly detected whistler mode waves, the signatures of lightning. Their intermittent appearance indicates a pattern associated with weather activity. The lightning rate is at least half of that on Earth.[51] In 2007 the Venus Express probe discovered that a huge double atmospheric vortex exists at the south pole of the planet.[52][53]

Another discovery made by the Venus Express probe in 2011 is that an ozone layer exists high in the atmosphere of Venus.[54]
Magnetic field and core
Size comparison of terrestrial planets (left to right): Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars

In 1967, Venera-4 found that the Venusian magnetic field is much weaker than that of Earth. This magnetic field is induced by an interaction between the ionosphere and the solar wind,[55][56] rather than by an internal dynamo in the core like the one inside the Earth. Venus' small induced magnetosphere provides negligible protection to the atmosphere against cosmic radiation. This radiation may result in cloud-to-cloud lightning discharges.[57]

The lack of an intrinsic magnetic field at Venus was surprising given that it is similar to Earth in size, and was expected also to contain a dynamo at its core. A dynamo requires three things: a conducting liquid, rotation, and convection. The core is thought to be electrically conductive and, while its rotation is often thought to be too slow, simulations show that it is adequate to produce a dynamo.[58][59] This implies that the dynamo is missing because of a lack of convection in the Venusian core. On Earth, convection occurs in the liquid outer layer of the core because the bottom of the liquid layer is much hotter than the topVenus orbits the Sun at an average distance of about 108 million kilometers (about 0.7 AU) and completes an orbit every 224.65 days. Venus is the second planet from the Sun and it revolves round the Sun approximately 1.6 times (yellow trail) in Earth's 365 days (blue trail)



Great post on Venus :)
Quoting Neapolitan:
There was one at the same location two hours ago, as well (a 1.9). I called my aunt who lives two miles from the center of the 3.5; she was napping and didn't feel any of them. Old people... ;-)
guessing by your comments earthquakes are not common there? well at least 3.0 and higher
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
403 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 359 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER CENTRAL
PECOS COUNTY...OR 25 MILES SOUTH OF FORT STOCKTON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTHERN PECOS COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME... TAKE COVER NOW. ABANDON MOBILE
HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE... SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED
BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT... SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT... DITCH OR
LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 10247 3032 10275 3056 10291 3066 10274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 325DEG 8KT 3053 10277

$$

That kind of came out of nowhere... I don't think we were expecting tornadoes in SW Texas today.
Quoting Gearsts:
Dry season?


Yeah,what dry season? Records of rainfall are being broken almost every day.

CLIMATE...MARCH 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD WETTEST MARCH
ON RECORD THE SAN JUAN OFFICIAL CLIMATE STATION WITH A TOTAL OF
6.31 INCHES. THE WETTEST MARCH ON RECORD WAS 1927 WHEN 9.38 INCHES
WERE MEASURED.

FOR ST. THOMAS...MARCH 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE FIFTH WETTEST
MARCH ON RECORD WITH 3.24 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR. THE WETTEST
MARCH ON RECORD WAS 1961 WHEN 4.37 INCHES WERE MEASURED.

FOR ST. CROIX...MARCH 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE FOURTH WETTEST
YEAR ON RECORD WITH 2.92 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR. THE WETTEST
MARCH ON RECORD WAS 1985 WHEN 4.15 INCHES WERE MEASURED.
Tight rotation with this supercell in Texas.

The upper left box depicts base reflectivity, the upper right base velocity, the bottom left storm relative velocity, and the bottom right VIL, a measure of hail in a storm.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hopefully 2012 is not as active and deadly as last year
Quoting nigel20:

Hopefully 2012 is not as active and deadly as last year

I hope not either, but we're definitely not off to a start with an already estimated >$2 billion in damage and 56 deaths.
Quoting Josihua2:
guessing by your comments earthquakes are not common there? well at least 3.0 and higher
No, ones that size and smaller are very common there; that's why I made the wisecrack about my aunt sleeping through two feelable ones. ;-)
Quoting Patrap:
BREAKING: Obama Administration To Establish Strong Carbon Pollution Limits For New Power Plants
By Brad Johnson on Mar 26, 2012 at 10:14 pm


In one of the most significant reversals of Bush-era policy, the Obama administration plans tomorrow to issue greenhouse pollution limits for new power plants, a major step in the fight against global warming. The new rule %u2014 which will go into effect in 2013 %u2014 confirms the end of the era of dirty coal-fired power plants:

The proposed rule %u2014 years in the making and approved by the White House after months of review %u2014 will require any new power plant to emit no more than 1,000 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt of electricity produced. The average U.S. natural gas plant, which emits between 800 and 850 pounds of CO2 per megawatt, meets that standard; coal plants emit an average of 1,768 pounds of carbon dioxide per megawatt.

Since the late 1990s, %u201Cnatural gas has been the fuel of choice for the majority of new generating units,%u201D and in the 2000s, wind power generation also grew significantly. With the high cost of its toxic pollution from mine to plant, coal has been losing out to cleaner sources of fuel in the electric utility sector. Although few new coal plants have been built in the last twenty years, aging plants %u2014 some built in the 1930s %u2014 still produce about 40 percent of U.S. electricity, and about 80 percent of carbon pollution from the power sector.

In March 2001, newly elected President George W. Bush reversed a campaign pledge to limit greenhouse pollution from power plants, the source of 40 percent of United States global warming pollution. In 2008, Bush White House officials refused to open an email sent by its own Environmental Protection Agency which called for action against man-made climate change.

%u201CThis is the third major executive action launched by the Obama administration to reduce carbon pollution,%u201D writes Center for American Progress senior fellow Daniel Weiss. %u201CWith growing evidence that the serious impacts of climate change are already here, President Obama deserves credit for this new standard. We must urgently adopt and implement these new pollution reduction standards for power plants.%u201D




BTW, I have a question about this move I'd like to answer, will this regulation effect electrical output and thus effect our electric bills as a result? I'm just wondering because I haven't heard how carbon emissions regulations on electrical plants will effect electrical energy output from the plants after the regulation is implemented.


Furthermore I've came across some information about wind power which makes me wonder if its worth it. From what I know maintenance is expensive and a lot of birds die from wind plants.

Also how is natural gas in terms of CO2 or other pollutants as apposed to coal?


I think solar power seems like the best alternative in the future right now. Of course the best of all would be nuclear fusion but that's beyond our reach right now. I would also think from what I know about energy that its possible to harness energy from the sun in orbit and beam it to Earth. I'm not sure how much of that is practical or if its another option that is similar to nuclear fusion in that its beyond reach?
Dr. Greg Forbes
MON APR 2
Numerical models are not on full agreement on the details, but the potential is there for a widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak on Monday.
Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes in east and south OH, extreme
west PA, western WV, KY, TN, north GA, north, central, and southwest AL, MS,
LA, south and east-central AR, upper coastal TX.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I hope not either, but we're definitely not off to a start with an already estimated >$2 billion in damage and 56 deaths.

Yeah...it's already off to a bad start...hopefully it taper off
Joel Taylor - Storm Chaser
Such an interesting news week with the healthcare case in front of the Supremes and the murder/self-defense case in Florida. Plus the next major severe weather event looks to be approaching this weekend! A lot to keep track of.
Eloquent weather over here this afternoon!
Quoting nigel20:

Hopefully 2012 is not as active and deadly as last year
I personally hope its quite active.
I just got this video of a raging river in interior Puerto Rico that flooded a town (Orocovis) And we are supposed to be in the dry period.

Link
Quoting Cyclone2012:
Eloquent weather over here this afternoon!


Where are you? As I have been posting before,PR has seen above normal rainfall for this time of the year.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Jet streak over or close to PR aids in the wet pattern we have been enduring in a normally dry March.
Hello Everyone, figured I'd see what the blog was up to today...
Anyhow made a blog post to compliment Levi's blog post, and state my thoughts.
The link to my blog is HERE.
and if you don't like mine, click on Levi's because it is more in depth.
Quoting sunlinepr:

moist
Gas prices will necessiarily sky rocket!Obama 2008!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I just got this video of a raging river in interior Puerto Rico that flooded a town (Orocovis) And we are supposed to be in the dry period.

Link

My word
And it continues......


FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
557 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

PRC021-045-105-135-280145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0004.120327T2157Z-120328T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-COMERIO PR-NARANJITO PR-TOA ALTA PR-
557 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BAYAMON MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
COMERIO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF COMERIO...
NARANJITO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
TOA ALTA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PAJAROS...

* UNTIL 945 PM AST

* AT 552 PM AST...THIS FLOOD WARNING FOR THE DE LA PLATA RIVER HAS
REPLACED THE PREVIOUS URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY...THE DE
LA PLATA RIVER FROM COMERIO TO TOA ALTA HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT RISES
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE IN COMERIO AND AT
LA PLATA DAM OVER THE FEW HOURS.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 1829 6624 1838 6626 1838 6620 1822 6619
1821 6624

$$

AAS
InAccuWeather has introduced a 25-day forecast, which is obviously a very unwise move.

They get to look even more inaccurate guys! Aren't you excited?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
InAccuWeather has introduced a 25-day forecast, which is obviously a very unwise move.

They get to look even more inaccurate guys! Aren't you excited?


A 25 day forecast ????? PLEASE tell me it's just a joke
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
InAccuWeather has introduced a 25-day forecast, which is obviously a very unwise move.

They get to look even more inaccurate guys! Aren't you excited?


Three weeks forecast
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

A 25 day forecast ????? PLEASE tell me it's just a joke

I thought the 10 day forecast was bad enough, but a 25-day forecast is past ridiculous.
And another one...

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
606 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

PRC017-039-054-091-101-107-280400-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0005.120327T2206Z-120328T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BARCELONETA PR-CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-MANATI PR-MOROVIS PR-OROCOVIS PR-
606 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BARCELONETA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
CIALES MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
FLORIDA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MANATI MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MOROVIS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
OROCOVIS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST

* AT 600 PM AST ALTHOUGH MOST OF SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THIS
REGION...LARGE AMOUNTS OF RUNOFF ARE REACHING THE RIO GRANDE DE
MANATI FROM OROCOVIS DOWNSTREAM TO THE MANATI COASTAL AREA. MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE LOW LYING AREAS OF THE RIO
GRANDE DE MANATI...THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FLOOD WARNING FOR
RIO GRANDE DE MANATI HAS REPLACED THE PREVIOUS URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 1827 6653 1848 6654 1849 6652 1841 6648
1833 6644 1821 6640 1820 6649

$$

EM
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I thought the 10 day forecast was bad enough, but a 25-day forecast is past ridiculous.

We don' even have models that go out that far, and besides, anything beyond 10 days is useless anyways... All they could base it off of would be historical averages.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

We don' even have models that go out that far, and besides, anything beyond 10 days is useless anyways... All they could base it off of would be historical averages.

Agreed
The flooding event of this afternoon in interior Puerto Rico is part of the news. Here is what have been going on in a translation to english with videos and photos.

Link
test image

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The flooding event of this afternoon in interior Puerto Rico is part of the news. Here is what have been going on in a translation to english with videos and photos.

Link

Thanks for the update of the situation there in Puerto Rico



Magnitude 4.3 - SOUTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA
2012 March 27 21:54:56 UTC


Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 4.3

Date-Time
Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 21:54:56 UTC
Wednesday, March 28, 2012 at 05:54:56 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
33.271°N, 95.675°E
Depth
31.2 km (19.4 miles)
Region
SOUTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA
Distances
127 km (78 miles) WNW of Gyegu (Yushu), Qinghai, China
274 km (170 miles) NNW of Qamdo, Xizang (Tibet), China
317 km (196 miles) ESE of Tanggulashan, Qinghai, China
1989 km (1235 miles) WSW of BEIJING, Beijing, China
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 22 km (13.7 miles); depth +/- 9.6 km (6.0 miles)
Parameters
NST= 37, Nph= 37, Dmin=586.7 km, Rmss=0.71 sec, Gp= 72°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=3
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0008r7j
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
InAccuWeather has introduced a 25-day forecast, which is obviously a very unwise move.

They get to look even more inaccurate guys! Aren't you excited?




Magnitude 4.8 - KEPULAUAN KAI, INDONESIA
2012 March 27 22:34:46 UTC


Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 4.8

Date-Time
Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 22:34:46 UTC
Wednesday, March 28, 2012 at 07:34:46 AM at epicenter
Location
5.157°S, 133.811°E
Depth
18.6 km (11.6 miles)
Region
KEPULAUAN KAI, INDONESIA
Distances
84 km (52 miles) NNW (328°) from Dobo, Aru Islands, Indonesia
316 km (196 miles) WSW (241°) from Enarotali, Irian Jaya, Indonesia
414 km (257 miles) NE (41°) from Saumlaki, Tanimbar Islands, Indonesia
647 km (402 miles) ESE (105°) from Ambon, Moluccas, Indonesia
985 km (612 miles) ENE (68°) from DILI, East Timor
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 23.4 km (14.5 miles); depth +/- 9.4 km (5.8 miles)
Parameters
NST= 39, Nph= 41, Dmin=301.7 km, Rmss=1.13 sec, Gp=122°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=4
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0008r83


this is titled apocalyptic hurricane season lol

Quoting StormTracker2K:


I agree huge differences even at day 5 between the models. All I know is it's hot here in FL and it's going to get hotter as highs are expected to around 90 from Thursday on. It's 88 here right now.

 It appears the Euro wants to have us(Orlando) blustery in the 70's(even 60's) for highs next week(with full sunshine).
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


this is titled apocalyptic hurricane season lol
Lol a TS right over my house.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Lol a TS right over my house.


lol
2.6 in LA..pfft.. you get a bigger shake when a truck drives by your house.. now a 5.6+ that's when it gets interesting...
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Lol a TS right over my house.

Where are you located?
Quoting JNCali:
2.6 in LA..pfft.. you get a bigger shake when a truck drives by your house.. now a 5.6+ that's when it gets interesting...
give me a second to reposition the wave gun did you say an 8.5 or 5.8

how about both
Good evening, Keeper.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
InAccuWeather has introduced a 25-day forecast, which is obviously a very unwise move.

They get to look even more inaccurate guys! Aren't you excited?



At 5 days if a forecast is remotely correct I would be shocked.
Anyone got any links to view presentations from Hurricane conference in orlando?
One problem with the fact that most computer games require the internet nowadays: one website goes down and you can't play and have nothing better to do but do math homework. :(
Quoting hurricane23:
Anyone got any links to view presentations from Hurricane conference in orlando?



Adrian, how's daddy's little girl doing? We haven't seen a pic of her in a while.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


At 5 days if a forecast is remotely correct I would be shocked.
i never trust past 144 hr mark and even then i wait till at least 120 hr mark or less before i start thinking of outcomes
Quoting nigel20:

Where are you located?
Atlanta GA USA
Quoting hurricane23:
Anyone got any links to view presentations from Hurricane conference in orlando?


Adrian, I dont know if what you are looking for is here,but this is the link to the conference and maybe you can find what you want to see.

Link
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Atlanta GA USA

Ok, cool
Quoting Cyclone2012:



Adrian, how's daddy's little girl doing? We haven't seen a pic of her in a while.


Thanks for asking! Family is doing ok but going through some rough times cause wife got laid off after 13 years at her job.

Princess
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
give me a second to reposition the wave gun did you say an 8.5 or 5.8

how about both


Oh, please don't even think along those lines, lol



Fontana, CA 10 miles 2.6 1:32 PM PDT 2012-03-27
Fontana, CA 10 miles 3.4 1:30 PM PDT 2012-03-27

Those are not San Bernardino, these are 10 miles North of here and still
didn't feel them. These are tiny. I 5.0 would be felt, maybe.
Been though a few 6.7's out here. Those you remember.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Adrian, I dont know if what you are looking for is here,but this is the link to the conference and maybe you can find what you want to see.

Link


Hey thanks but i was actually looking for video coverage. Wanted to see norcross presentation on andrew.
Here's something to think about for those here who are so quick to bash Accuweather. They are a successfull business in a field where their leading competition, the NWS, gives its product away for free. Think about what a leap of faith that is, to start a "business where your primary competition gives away its product free. Takes a lot of guts and brains to make that business model work. Lets see some of you bashers here pull off such a feat.


And here are two more flood advisories.....


FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
712 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

PRC143-145-280100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0066.120327T2312Z-120328T0100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
712 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
VEGA ALTA AND VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL 900 PM AST

AT 705 PM...ROADS...URBAN...AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CONTINUE TO BE
FLOODED DUE TO RUNOFF. EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN HAS
DISSIPATED...THIS URBAN FLOODING MAY CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. THEREFORE THE FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 900
PM AST.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1843 6637 1846 6638 1849 6638 1848 6635
1846 6634 1840 6633 1841 6636

$$

EM
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
705 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

PRC143-145-280100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0065.120327T2305Z-120328T0100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
705 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
VEGA ALTA AND VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL 900 PM AST

ROADS...URBAN...AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CONTINUE TO BE FLOODED DUE
TO RUNOFF. EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE RAIN HAS DISSIPATED...THIS URBAN
FLOODING MAY CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THEREFORE THE FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 900 PM AST.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1843 6637 1846 6638 1849 6638 1848 6635
1846 6634 1840 6633 1841 6636

$$

EM
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Here's something to think about for those here who are so quick to bash Accuweather. They are a successfull business in a field where their leading competition, the NWS, gives its product away for free. Think about what a leap of faith that is, to start a "business where your primary competition gives away its product free. Takes a lot of guts and brains to make that business model work. Lets see some of you bashers here pull off such a feat.


Challenge accepted.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
And here are two more flood advisories.....


It's been a really bad afternoon and evening for central Puerto Rico.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Here's something to think about for those here who are so quick to bash Accuweather. They are a successfull business in a field where their leading competition, the NWS, gives its product away for free. Think about what a leap of faith that is, to start a "business where your primary competition gives away its product free. Takes a lot of guts and brains to make that business model work. Lets see some of you bashers here pull off such a feat.


I think Accuweather is great now; things started improving for them after they cut Bastardi. I still much prefer WU, but when I do from time to time have reason to visit Accuweather, and I can usually find what I need there with a little looking around.
I am so sick of Global warming, I wanna puke!
am I the only one in here feeling nauseous?
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


this is titled apocalyptic hurricane season lol
I threw this graphic together last year just for fun, and since then I've seen it here and elsewhere around the internets. I never would have guessed it would have such legs...

Maybe I should make a new one with double the storms, huh? ;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:
I think Accuweather is great now; things started improving for them after they cut Bastardi. I still much prefer WU, but when I do from time to time have reason to visit Accuweather, and I can usually find what I need there with a little looking around.


I use Accuweather as well......I like there tropical updates
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


this is titled apocalyptic hurricane season lol

Shukks!
I feel so left out....

:):))
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


It's been a really bad afternoon and evening for central Puerto Rico.


One word YIKES! No wonder we have had many flood advisories and warnings,with some rivers over banks and inundating towns.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Here's something to think about for those here who are so quick to bash Accuweather. They are a successfull business in a field where their leading competition, the NWS, gives its product away for free. Think about what a leap of faith that is, to start a "business where your primary competition gives away its product free. Takes a lot of guts and brains to make that business model work. Lets see some of you bashers here pull off such a feat.



Alright, just as soon as I get my own [.com] website.
Quoting trunkmonkey:
I am so sick of Global warming, I wanna puke!
am I the only one in here feeling nauseous?

I understand the sentiment completely.
The fact that Global Warming makes you feel to be sick is understandable.

It's real
Noboddy seems to care.
It's getting worse.

You have my Sympathies....

:):))
Quoting Patrap:
2.6 Mag Quake


San Bernardino



2.6 in SoCal? I bet no one even batted an eye. :)

When I lived out there if it wasn't above a 4 it didn't even make the news.


Magnitude 5.0 - NEPAL-INDIA BORDER REGION
2012 March 27 23:40:14 UTC


Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.

Magnitude 5.0

Date-Time
Tuesday, March 27, 2012 at 23:40:14 UTC
Wednesday, March 28, 2012 at 05:10:14 AM at epicenter
Location
26.093°N, 87.751°E
Depth
40 km (24.9 miles)
Region
NEPAL-INDIA BORDER REGION
Distances
61 km (38 miles) SE (130°) from Biratnagar, Nepal
96 km (60 miles) SW (225°) from Shiliguri, West Bengal, India
123 km (76 miles) NE (39°) from Bhagalpur, Bihar, India
255 km (158 miles) SW (232°) from THIMPHU, Bhutan
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 18 km (11.2 miles); depth +/- 7.1 km (4.4 miles)
Parameters
NST=120, Nph=120, Dmin=>999 km, Rmss=0.67 sec, Gp= 43°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=7
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0008r97
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

We don' even have models that go out that far, and besides, anything beyond 10 days is useless anyways... All they could base it off of would be historical averages.


The time range of models is controlled by input configuration parameters. There's really nothing stopping someone from running a GFS ensemble for 25 days or more, other than the fact that such results would be garbage.

But I guess Accuweather can do whatever they want really. :P
HEH !!
We Rattlin' and Rollin' all over the place......
And it's still March. Long way to go before the 'next' doomsday forecast.
Quoting trunkmonkey:
I am so sick of Global warming, I wanna puke!
am I the only one in here feeling nauseous?


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Alright, just as soon as I get my own [.com] website.
Actually running a general weather site does sound tempting. I got the hardware to run one just need someone who is skilled in designing a website. I'm pretty sure you could run one hell of a site with just people off this blog. Time to start recruiting?
Quoting nigel20:


I use Accuweather as well......I like there tropical updates
They have improved tremendously. Especially since the 1980,s.
202. Jax82
I'm thinking there is something up with Wunderground temp forecasts. For Jacksonville Beach they show Saturday's high of 93 (that woudl beat the record high of 84 for the date by 9 degrees, highly unlikely). I go to NWS and its a high of 83. 10 degrees is an awful lot, and typically the NWS is close, and wunderground is off. I'm just curious as to why the large discrepancy in the forecasts, i think they have some improving to do.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


2.6 in SoCal? I bet no one even batted an eye. :)

When I lived out there if it wasn't above a 4 it didn't even make the news.
That was just someone backing into a hydrant...:)
Quoting hydrus:
That was just someone backing into a hydrant...:)

What's up hydrus?
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I personally hope its quite active.
It has been quite active since 1995. What would you call an active year.?
Quoting nigel20:

What's up hydrus?
Busy as always. I have not had a chance to check the models yet, but it would seem that the U.S. is in for more rough weather late this week and early next. I read that Jamaica and Puerto Rico have been getting more than enough in the rain gauges lately. Last year it seemed you were drier than normal.
Quoting trunkmonkey:
I am so sick of Global warming, I wanna puke!
am I the only one in here feeling nauseous?

Something you wrote, no doubt. ;)
Quoting hydrus:
It has been quite active since 1995. What would you call an active year.?

He's talking tornado activity, not hurricane.
hey guys does anyone know if the nhc keeps past surface charts and TWD in a file somewhere and you where I can get it

btw these surface map

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Dr. Greg Forbes
MON APR 2
Numerical models are not on full agreement on the details, but the potential is there for a widespread severe thunderstorm outbreak on Monday.
Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes in east and south OH, extreme
west PA, western WV, KY, TN, north GA, north, central, and southwest AL, MS,
LA, south and east-central AR, upper coastal TX.


It always slopes NE into GA. Why cant it go straight across S GA???

Capes of 2000 forecast in the GFS last i saw, so we know that wont be what it is in the real event.
211. MTWX
Interesting little tidbit from the Jackson, MS NWS:

... Does a warm March mean a hot Summer...

Much of this month has been quite warm. Actually... the average
temperature for the month (through 3/26) has been 65.5 degrees. This
ranks as the 5th warmest on record so far. Five days remain in the
month... and if the current forecast values occur... March would end
at 66.2 degrees... 3rd warmest on record. Below is a list of the top
5 warmest months for march:

1) 1921 67.4
2) 1907 67.3
3) 1938 66.1
4) 1908 65.7
5) 2012 65.5

So one may ask... does a warm March mean a hot summer? The simple
answer... not really. We looked at the 10 warmest March months on
record and then matched those years with the corresponding Summer
season(june-July-august). Of those 10 years... 6 Summer seasons were
right around normal for average temperature. Three of those 10 years
had a warmer than average Summer with one Summer below average. So
while we cannot make a definite forecast of how hot the Summer will
be... history supports a Summer with near normal temperatures.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys does anyone know if the nhc keeps past surface charts and TWD in a file somewhere and you where I can get it

btw these surface map



What I found was the TWD file.

Link
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What I found was the TWD file.

Link


thanks mate
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What I found was the TWD file.

Link
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


thanks mate


but do they have a extended history file that goes back atleast a year
Quoting MTWX:
Interesting little tidbit from the Jackson, MS NWS:

... Does a warm March mean a hot Summer...

Much of this month has been quite warm. Actually... the average
temperature for the month (through 3/26) has been 65.5 degrees. This
ranks as the 5th warmest on record so far. Five days remain in the
month... and if the current forecast values occur... March would end
at 66.2 degrees... 3rd warmest on record. Below is a list of the top
5 warmest months for march:

1) 1921 67.4
2) 1907 67.3
3) 1938 66.1
4) 1908 65.7
5) 2012 65.5

So one may ask... does a warm March mean a hot summer? The simple
answer... not really. We looked at the 10 warmest March months on
record and then matched those years with the corresponding Summer
season(june-July-august). Of those 10 years... 6 Summer seasons were
right around normal for average temperature. Three of those 10 years
had a warmer than average Summer with one Summer below average. So
while we cannot make a definite forecast of how hot the Summer will
be... history supports a Summer with near normal temperatures.

I saw where a number of the regional NWS offices had performed similar analyses, and almost across the board the consensus was twofold:

1) Historically, locations which had an above-normal March tended to not have an above-average spring or summer overall, and, in fact, often had an overall spring that was cooler than normal; however...

2) This month's heat wave was so deep, widespread, long-lasting, and profoundly anomalous that forecasters weren't willing to wager on a cool spring and/or summer this time; they simply didn't know what to expect.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys does anyone know if the nhc keeps past surface charts and TWD in a file somewhere and you where I can get it

btw these surface map




Tropical Weather Discussion Archive


Surface Analysis Archive, not the map you showed but the master one that map is derived from.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


but do they have a extended history file that goes back atleast a year


The file is only for a few days back,unless there is a one year file that I have not seen.

Edit= I see that our friend nrtiwlnvragn posted both of them.
An EF6*tornado: 40,000mile(64,000kilometre) diameter with
windspeeds exceeding 100,000miles(161,000kilometres) per hour

And some photo animations (at the bottom when the page finishes loading)

* Possibly higher, though how the EnhancedFujitaScale can be extended to go beyond total destruction of all man-made structures and all landscape is a bit of a mystery.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Actually running a general weather site does sound tempting. I got the hardware to run one just need someone who is skilled in designing a website. I'm pretty sure you could run one hell of a site with just people off this blog. Time to start recruiting?
What would you differently and better than the existing websites? A lot of thought goes into a successful website.. WU me if you're serious..
Quoting MTWX:
Interesting little tidbit from the Jackson, MS NWS:

... Does a warm March mean a hot Summer...

Much of this month has been quite warm. Actually... the average
temperature for the month (through 3/26) has been 65.5 degrees. This
ranks as the 5th warmest on record so far. Five days remain in the
month... and if the current forecast values occur... March would end
at 66.2 degrees... 3rd warmest on record. Below is a list of the top
5 warmest months for march:

1) 1921 67.4
2) 1907 67.3
3) 1938 66.1
4) 1908 65.7
5) 2012 65.5

So one may ask... does a warm March mean a hot summer? The simple
answer... not really. We looked at the 10 warmest March months on
record and then matched those years with the corresponding Summer
season(june-July-august). Of those 10 years... 6 Summer seasons were
right around normal for average temperature. Three of those 10 years
had a warmer than average Summer with one Summer below average. So
while we cannot make a definite forecast of how hot the Summer will
be... history supports a Summer with near normal temperatures.

The last time we had a March this warm here in Tennessee was 1907. When April arrived, it was much cooler than normal. My opinion is that April will be very stormy with the usual break between systems.
One more of the many flood advisories that have been out on this Tuesday.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
907 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

PRC143-145-280400-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0067.120328T0107Z-120328T0400Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
907 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
VEGA ALTA AND VEGA BAJA

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST

* AT 905 PM AST...RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS RESULTED
IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIO CIBUCO AT VEGA BAJA AND VEGA ALTA.
MOTORISTS DRIVING ALONG THE RIO CIBUCO IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD
EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1849 6641 1848 6634 1837 6633 1837 6640

$$

OMS
Quoting hydrus:
Busy as always. I have not had a chance to check the models yet, but it would seem that the U.S. is in for more rough weather late this week and early next. I read that Jamaica and Puerto Rico have been getting more than enough in the rain gauges lately. Last year it seemed you were drier than normal.

Yeah, it has been raining almost everyday here in Kingston and the rainy season in Jamaica begins somewhere between May and June....we usually get most of our rain from tropical systems and day time heating
Quoting aspectre:
An EF6*tornado: 40,000mile(64,000kilometre) diameter with
windspeeds exceeding 100,000miles(161,000kilometres) per hour

And some photo animations (at the bottom when the page finishes loading)

* Possibly higher, though how the EnhancedFujitaScale can be extended to go beyond total destruction of all man-made structures and all landscape is a bit of a mystery.
sunados above the solar surface
Quoting hurricane23:


Thanks for asking! Family is doing ok but going through some rough times cause wife got laid off after 13 years at her job.

Princess



OMG, she's growing up so fast! She's absolutely beautiful, Adrian. God bless your daughter a MILLION times. Last time that you had posted a picture of her on here, she was an infant!

That's terrible; I am so sorry that she recently got laid-off from her job. Hopefully she'll be able to find employment once more, soon enough! I am so sorry, =(. It must be heartbreaking to lose your job after having worked in the same place for thirteen years. I cannot even begin to imagine what she must be going through!
When's the last time we had something interesting tropical to talk about?
All we have now is a lousy looking invest in the West Pac...

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
When's the last time we had something interesting tropical to talk about?
All we have now is a lousy looking invest in the West Pac...


How are you MAweatherboy1??
Public Information Statement, Comment Request
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
1028 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2012

To: Subscribers:
-Family of Services
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Manager Weather Information Network
-NOAAPORT
Other NWS partners and NWS employees

From: Dave Soroka
Acting Chief, Marine and Coastal Services Branch

Subject: Soliciting Comments for Two Experimental Services
from the National Hurricane Center from June 1
Through November 30, 2012

Effective June 1 and continuing through November 30, 2012, NWS is
seeking user feedback on two experimental services from the
National Hurricane Center (NHC).

In an effort to provide users with additional information to
enhance planning and preparedness decisions, NHC will provide
audio briefings (also called podcasts) and videocasts, when the
media pool is activated by the NHC Public Affairs Officer. In
general, the media pool is activated by NHC when a hurricane
watch is initiated for a portion of the United States coastline.
The experimental services will summarize the NHC media
advisories. Because the services are experimental, they may not
be available in a timely manner and they may not be available for
every media event.

1. Audio briefings (podcasts)

The audio briefings will be provided in mp3 format, an industry
standard which allows the products be disseminated via the Web.
Users wishing to download the audio files may do so using their
Web browser. Links to mp3 files will be provided with Extensible
Markup Language (XML)/Really Simple Syndication (RSS) technology.

To subscribe to a podcast, a user would access the XML/RSS file
using podcasting software. This software is widely available on
the Web and manages audio feeds. Once a user subscribes to the
RSS feed, the podcasting software will check for new audio files
and download them to the users computer or mp3 player.

Users wishing to subscribe to the podcast should go to:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/index_podcast.xml

Feedback concerning this experimental service is welcomed at:

http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code= nhcpod

2.Videocasts

NHC has entered into an agreement with Weather Decision
Technologies (WDT), Inc. to provide Internet protocol-based audio
and video streaming of its hourly hurricane briefings. The
relationship with WDT, Inc. is intended to provide distant media
outlets and the general public with access to these briefings.

The video briefings are available to anyone with a Web browser
supporting mp4 format audio and video at:

http://www.imaphurricane.info/

Feedback concerning this experimental service is welcomed at:

http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code= nhcvid

If you have comments or questions, please contact:

Dennis Feltgen
Public Affairs Officer
National Hurricane Center
Miami, FL 33165-2140
Dennis.Feltgen@noaa.gov
305-229-4404

National Public Information Statements are online at:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notif.htm

Quoting nigel20:

How are you MAweatherboy1??

Not too bad...
As you might tell I'm looking forward to hurricane season. I love all kinds of weather but hurricanes are definitely my favorite :)

How about yourself if you don't mind me asking?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Not too bad...
As you might tell I'm looking forward to hurricane season. I love all kinds of weather but hurricanes are definitely my favorite :)

How about yourself if you don't mind me asking?

I'm good as well, thanks for asking...Hurricanes are my favorite as I live in the tropics
Here is another video of the flooding in Puerto Rico. Here you can see the Orocovis river raging over a bridge. The good news is that so far no injuries nor fatalities have occured.

Link
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
LOL. For shame. No indication you added that last little statement (at 552.) that "explains" the whole thing. Aha. Now I get it. Neo stated his own opinion that man is causing the warming - based on seeing a growing scientific consensus that led him in that direction. And here, all this time I thought he was into stating scientific fact, not his opinion. My mistake.

It's a scientific theory that CO2 and other greenhouse gases absorb infrared radiation in our atmosphere. If we are adding more of these gases to the atmosphere, obviously more radiation will be trapped, warming the atmosphere. The problem is Earth's atmospheric and oceanic systems are incredibly complex. There are a lot of processes we don't understand, and a lot of randomness and chaos within the system itself. This makes it difficult to determine the amount of warming we have contributed and it also makes it difficult to predict how much we will warm in the future and what those impacts will be.

Nonetheless, we can say that we have contributed to the warming of our planet. Even if you wish to ignore the greenhouse gas theory, each breath you exhale adds a little warmth to our atmosphere, in case you weren't aware.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is another video of the flooding in Puerto Rico. Here you can see the Orocovis river raging over a bridge. The good news is that so far no injuries nor fatalities have occured.

Link

That's good to hear
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

He's talking tornado activity, not hurricane.
I thought he meant 13....My apologies to him...:)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



GREAT!!!!!!!
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
LOL. For shame. No indication you added that last little statement (at 552.) that "explains" the whole thing. Aha. Now I get it. Neo stated his own opinion that man is causing the warming - based on seeing a growing scientific consensus that led him in that direction. And here, all this time I thought he was into stating scientific fact, not his opinion. My mistake.
Please don't twist my words. You've often expressed bewilderment at certain statements I and others have made, blaming your confusion on a lack of coffee; whether that is or is not the case, please feel free to ask for clarification before accusing me of anything.

Now, the fact that I agreed with a scientific consensus does not mean that I was merely stating my opinion. Example: I'm of the opinion that fire is hot. But if I tell you that fire is hot, I'm not just stating my opinion; I'm repeating what empirical evidence shows.

Simple, no?

So allow me to say again what I said earlier: an increasing number of scientists across many disciplines believe mankind is responsible for most--that is, the majority--if not all of the current observed warming.

That's a fact. And it's also my opinion. And the two aren't mutually exclusive.

Now, grab that cup of coffee, then get back to me. ;-)
This is the beginning of the main Severe Weather threat for tonight. Convection has developed ahead of a cold front stretched across southern Wisconsin into southeast Iowa, northwest Missouri, and northeast Kansas. The atmosphere is characterized by 1000-1500 j/kg MLCAPE and 35-50 kt bulk wind shear. Mid-level lapse rates and low-level lapse rates are quite high, which will support the threat for isolated large hail, and especially damaging wind gusts. Due to high LCL heights and little turning with height however, very few, if any, tornadoes are expected.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is possible soon.

Climatology of hurricanes in Jamaica

1851-2010
Perpetual Ocean by Vincent van NASA-Goddard



An excellent timelapse animation of ocean currents as they existed between 2006 and 2007
accompanied by some equally nice hang"drum"music.
NOAA Communications ‏ @NOAAComms
@JimCantore #NOAA NCDC says near-real time stations show 6,760 High Max Temp records so far this month: last 30-days
Quoting JNCali:
What would you differently and better than the existing websites? A lot of thought goes into a successful website.. WU me if you're serious..
Sry my internet was on the fritz. I have responded in your inbox.
Quoting nigel20:
Climatology of hurricanes in Jamaica

1851-2010


Puerto Rico has been thru many landfalls since 1850 for sure.

What about Miami, FL? We're UNBELIEVABLY due for a cane strike down here!!!!!!!!
244. MTWX
Either Virginia is getting some wicked rain, or their radar is on the fritz!

Wakefield, VA Composite
Quoting trunkmonkey:
I am so sick of Global warming, I wanna puke!
am I the only one in here feeling nauseous?



I echo your comments. We're just in a cycle of warmer weather. 25 years from now we'll be talking about the next ice age.
Quoting Cyclone2012:
What about Miami, FL? We're UNBELIEVABLY due for a cane strike down here!!!!!!!!


The last time Tampa got hit by a hurricane was 1921. I'd say that they are way overdue.
@232. Tom Taylor
Even if you wish to ignore the greenhouse gas theory, each breath you exhale adds a little warmth to our atmosphere, in case you weren't aware.

Presume you are addressing me here and not the general you. I probably knew about the "greenhouse gas theory" before you were born.

@236. Neo...
LOL. Wasn't I who twisted your words. Was MinneMike. I was parroting back to him the explanation of your words that he gave me. If you read back and think about it, you might understand. I'm not even gonna read the rest of your comment.

In case anyone might care, and I don't know why they would, these posts to me and my reply reference a discussion near the end of DocM's previous blog.
Quoting jrweatherman:


The last time Tampa got hit by a hurricane was 1921. I'd say that they are way overdue.


That may be so. However, do keep in mind that despite that, Miami, FL has and will always be more susceptible to hurricane hits than Tampa ever will in comparison.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Puerto Rico has been thru many landfalls since 1850 for sure.


That's quite a lot of storms
250. MTWX
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
232. Tom Taylor
Even if you wish to ignore the greenhouse gas theory, each breath you exhale adds a little warmth to our atmosphere, in case you weren't aware.

Presume you are addressing me here and not the general you. I probably knew about the greenhouse gas theory before you were born.

@236. Neo...
LOL. Wasn't I who twisted your words. Was MinneMike. I was parroting back to him the explanation of your words that he gave me. If you read back and think about it, you might understand. I'm not even gonna read the rest of your comment.

In case anyone might care, and I don't know why they would, these posts to me and my reply reference a discussion near the end of DocM's previous blog.

Was kinda wondering what y'all were going on about?? ;)
Quoting jrweatherman:


The last time Tampa got hit by a hurricane was 1921. I'd say that they are way overdue.

Definitely


I highly doubt this happens, but still.... o.0
Quoting MTWX:
Either Virginia is getting some wicked rain, or their radar is on the fritz!

Wakefield, VA Composite


its been doing that a lot lately for about 2 months...something is going on idk what though
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I highly doubt this happens, but still.... o.0



yeah snow on the i-95 corridor into southern v.a. hahahah i wish, but i dont see it happeneing either
Key west

Quoting nigel20:
Key west



We down here get hit from every direction imaginable, which is why we're so vulnerable to hits!
The flood warnings keep popping up even at this late hour.

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1050 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

PRC051-135-137-280545-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0006.120328T0250Z-120328T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
DORADO PR-TOA ALTA PR-TOA BAJA PR-
1050 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
DORADO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
TOA ALTA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
TOA BAJA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 145 AM AST

* AT 1048 PM AST...RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS RESULTED
IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIO DE LA PLATA AT TOA ALTA AND TOA BAJA.
THE CURRENT RIVER STAGE IS 16.21 FEET AND RECEDING. MOTORISTS
DRIVING ALONG RIO DE LA PLATA IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD EXERCISE
EXTREME CAUTION. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER TRY TO
CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 1848 6627 1847 6625 1839 6625 1839 6627

$$

OMS
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1038 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

PRC017-039-054-091-101-107-280700-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.W.0005.000000T0000Z-120328T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BARCELONETA PR-CIALES PR-FLORIDA PR-MANATI PR-MOROVIS PR-OROCOVIS PR-
1038 PM AST TUE MAR 27 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BARCELONETA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
CIALES MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
FLORIDA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MANATI MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MOROVIS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
OROCOVIS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 300 AM AST

* AT 1033 PM AST...RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS RESULTED
IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON RIO GRANDE DE MANATI AT CIALES...MANATI AND
BARCELONETA. MOTORISTS DRIVING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE DE MANATI IN
FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION. MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 1827 6653 1848 6654 1849 6652 1841 6648
1833 6644 1821 6640 1820 6649

$$

OMS
This will be worth watching with interest over the next 2-3 months. Recently the Atlantic has experienced a bout of atmospheric stability in its tropical areas. This year, the pattern may make the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico more unstable and favorable for wetness than one would typically expect from a potential El Nino. It will be interesting to see if vertical instability will be able to stay near or above climatology as we head into the early summer.

Quoting Cyclone2012:


We down here get hit from every direction imaginable, which is why we're so vulnerable to hits!

Yeah, you guys have to track almost every storm that developes in the tropics

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0843 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN/WRN IL...EXTREME NERN/N-CENTRAL
KS...EXTREME NWRN INDIANA...WRN/NRN MO...EXTREME SERN IA...EXTREME
SRN LM.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 280143Z - 280345Z

GRADUAL DEEPENING OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED IN PREFRONTAL BAND
FROM N-CENTRAL IL TO NERN MO...WITH POTENTIAL MOVEMENT ACROSS SRN LM
REGION AND POSSIBLE BACKBUILDING TOWARD KS/MO BORDER REGION DURING
NEXT FEW HOURS. OCNL SVR HAIL OR DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

01Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED COLD FRONT FROM E-CENTRAL WI SWWD ACROSS
DBQ/OTM/STJ AREAS. WARM FRONT WAS DRAWN FROM ERN WI SSEWD ACROSS
CHI AREA TO NEAR SDF...HOWEVER RELATIVELY DRY SFC AIR WITH MID-UPPER
40S F DEW POINTS EXTENDED W OF WARM FRONT OVER ERN IL. GIVEN SWLY
FLOW ON BOTH SIDES OF COLD FRONT...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WAS
WEAK...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z. HOWEVER...SFC
CONFLUENCE LINE WAS EVIDENT OVER W-CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL IL. THOUGH AT
OBLIQUE ANGLE TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION...STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL LIFT
APPEARS TO BE NEAR SFC CONFLUENCE ZONE. MOIST AXIS WAS DRAWN ABOUT
35-45 NM AHEAD OF FRONT OVER MOST OF AREA. 850 AND 925 MB UPPER AIR
CHARTS SHOWED MOIST AXES AT THOSE LEVELS NEARLY COLLOCATED FROM
PNC-MKC-PIA. 00Z UPPER AIR CHARTS AND LATEST VWP/PROFILER WINDS
INDICATED LLJ AXIS SLIGHTLY FARTHER S NEAR OKC-COU-SBN LINE.

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF FRONT...ALONG SRN FRINGE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOIST PLUME...S OF MOIST AXES AND N OF LLJ. MOIST
ADVECTION...AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...SHOULD HELP TO
MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY AND PERHAPS INCREASE COVERAGE...WHILE BAND
TRANSLATES EWD 20-25 KT AND EMBEDDED CELLS MOVE FASTER NEWD.
MODIFIED DVN/ILX/TOP/SGF RAOBS...ORD ACARS SOUNDING AND RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE NEAR MOIST AXIS...BUT ALSO
INCREASING MLCINH LIKELY WITH EVENING DIABATIC COOLING NEAR SFC.
THIS WILL MAKE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MORE CONDITIONAL/MRGL WITH
TIME. MEANWHILE NEARLY PARALLEL NATURE OF MEAN FLOW TO CONVECTIVE
PLUME SUPPORTS QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...LIKELY LIMITING THREAT
FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR HAIL. NONETHELESS...PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE
BUOYANCY ATOP MOISTURE PLUME...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES
RANGING FROM AROUND 50 KT OVER NRN IL TO 35 KT NEAR MKC...WILL
SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH SPORADIC SVR.
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SEWD OVER E-CENTRAL IL AND NRN INDIANA INTO
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER LOW-LEVEL THETAE.

..EDWARDS.. 03/28/2012


ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...T OP...

LAT...LON 39399540 42418725 41048727 38139546 39399540

Quoting Levi32:
This will be worth watching with interest over the next 2-3 months. Recently the Atlantic has experienced a bout of atmospheric stability in its tropical areas. This year, the pattern may make the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico more unstable and favorable for wetness than one would typically expect from a potential El Nino. It will be interesting to see if vertical instability will be able to stay near or above climatology as we head into the early summer.


Vertical Instability is quite important right? I think there was low instabilty early on in the 2010 hurricane season....which cause average to below average activity upto about August. Correct me if I'm wrong
262. Asta
Quoting Patrap:
photo by Maciejewski Tuesday March 27, 2012 Ocean City, NJ


WALLOPS ISLAND, VA NASA s...... Each of the rockets released a chemical tracer that created milky, white clouds at the edge of space.

Okay- I'll admit it- I want to draw in the sky at dawn!!!
Quoting nigel20:

Vertical Instability is quite important right? I think there was low instabilty early on in the 2010 hurricane season....which cause average to below average activity upto about August. Correct me if I'm wrong
I think it was 2011 that is why we didn`t get a lot of hurricanes last year because there was low stability.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I think Accuweather is great now; things started improving for them after they cut Bastardi. I still much prefer WU, but when I do from time to time have reason to visit Accuweather, and I can usually find what I need there with a little looking around.



Fox News should hire Bastardi as their chief science adviser, lol.
Quoting allancalderini:
I think it was 2011 that is why we didn`t get a lot of hurricanes last year because there was low stability.


Correct. Off hand I think 2010 experienced that initial reduction due to strong upper tropospheric shear, likely still lingering from 2009's decadent El Nino (recall how active the East Pacific was during that time, with two June major hurricanes, including a Category 5). Even though we had Alex develop into the second strongest June hurricane in the historical database during that year, that area of the Atlantic was really the only area with below normal vertical shear starting off.

Incidentally, that is part of the reason why I expect more early season activity this year, followed by an abrupt die off in October due to the likelihood of El Nino.
Quoting jrweatherman:


The last time Tampa got hit by a hurricane was 1921. I'd say that they are way overdue.



"Overdue" really doesn't exist in this context, its all mathematical probability. The chances of rolling 3 sixes is the same as 2 ones, no matter how many times you roll the dice.

Tampa has a low probability(at least in modern history) of being hit, therefore it would make sense that it is rarely hit.

We get snow here in the Tampa Bay area more than direct hit from a hurricane, that's all you need to know. People should be prepared when one finally does hit again but as rare as snow may be, snow in Tampa is more common than direct hurricane hits, take it or leave it, its true.
Good night all
Quoting KoritheMan:


Correct. Off hand I think 2010 experienced that initial reduction due to strong upper tropospheric shear, likely still lingering from 2009's decadent El Nino (recall how active the East Pacific was during that time, with two June major hurricanes, including a Category 5). Even though we had Alex develop into the second strongest June hurricane in the historical database during that year, that area of the Atlantic was really the only area with below normal vertical shear starting off.

Incidentally, that is part of the reason why I expect more early season activity this year, followed by an abrupt die off in October due to the likelihood of El Nino.

Let me say thanks for the explaination KoritheMan...much appreciated. Good night guys
click image to zoom in pattern change coming

Link
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Link


Gave up on trying to post images, did you?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Gave up on trying to post images, did you?
no
Really? So you're not expecting October to be active at ALL? Not even in the Western Caribbean Sea?

HIGHLY DOUBTFUL!!!!!!! El Nino or not, October never disappoints and this year will be no different!
Quoting Cyclone2012:
Really? So you're not expecting October to be active at ALL? Not even in the Western Caribbean Sea?

HIGHLY DOUBTFUL!!!!!!! El Nino or not, October never disappoints and this year will be no different!


I should have clarified. I didn't mean no storms at all, but probably something like 2002, where two tropical cyclones were observed (Lili and TD13). But it's not going to be nearly as active as 2005 or 2010, when we had insane levels of activity during that month.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I should have clarified. I didn't mean no storms at all, but probably something like 2002, where two tropical cyclones were observed (Lili and TD13). But it's not going to be nearly as active as 2005 or 2010, when we had insane levels of activity during that month.


=)
well well well
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well well well



Hi, how are ya, keeper? =).
Quoting Cyclone2012:



Hi, how are ya, keeper? =).
ok going to sleep soon thundering and lightening here light stuff with rain temps on quick rebound and fall
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ok going to sleep soon thundering and lightening here light stuff with rain temps on quick rebound and fall


Yeah, same here, man. Have a good night, dude! See ya tomorrow on the blog!
three in a row right along the plate
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
three in a row right along the plate


Is that the same fault that extends all the way back to Japan?
I wonder what new information we'll see come out of the 2012 National Hurricane Conference, besides, "don't tape the windows."

If this year is anything like last year, I think the tape might not be a bad idea.

After all, who would of thought to forecast a nuclear wind on March 1, 2011 curiously tied to a large earthquake?

And you know, they even pulled the Daisy Girl ad last year, that explained the countdown from March 1st, so perfectly.

10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 ...




Good morning folks!, another beautiful day in store for us here in central florida! hope you have great weather as well!..watched a very interesting story on history channel yesterday about the 1930's dust bowl drought in the midwest, god awful it was , the scenes, geez....but it was insightful, man himself, changing the weather. in a very Bad way...plant a tree everyone
Quoting Neapolitan:
I saw where a number of the regional NWS offices had performed similar analyses, and almost across the board the consensus was twofold:

1) Historically, locations which had an above-normal March tended to not have an above-average spring or summer overall, and, in fact, often had an overall spring that was cooler than normal; however...

2) This month's heat wave was so deep, widespread, long-lasting, and profoundly anomalous that forecasters weren't willing to wager on a cool spring and/or summer this time; they simply didn't know what to expect.


Every once in a while I like what you post!
Quoting Jedkins01:



"Overdue" really doesn't exist in this context, its all mathematical probability. The chances of rolling 3 sixes is the same as 2 ones, no matter how many times you roll the dice.

Tampa has a low probability(at least in modern history) of being hit, therefore it would make sense that it is rarely hit.

We get snow here in the Tampa Bay area more than direct hit from a hurricane, that's all you need to know. People should be prepared when one finally does hit again but as rare as snow may be, snow in Tampa is more common than direct hurricane hits, take it or leave it, its true.
hope not miami is another example what would of happened if andrew was 50 miles north
A look at upcoming Severe Weather threats...

Today:



5% Tornado (East Kansas)
15% Hatched Large Hail (East Kansas-Southwest Missouri)
15% Damaging Wind

Tomorrow:





Friday:





Day 4-8 Discussion:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE EWD EJECTION OF A
SUBSTANTIAL CHUNK OF THE PERSISTENT NERN PACIFIC UPPER
SYSTEM...SHIFTING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DAY 4 /SAT 3-31/ AND
THEN INTO THE PLAINS DAY 5. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
PERSIST BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...EVEN MORESO THAN THE MODEL RUNS
FROM 24 HOURS AGO.

WHILE THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL -- AND
EVENTUALLY THE ERN/NERN U.S. -- WOULD LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS DEPICTED IN THESE TWO MODELS CAST
CONSIDERABLE DOUBT AS TO EVEN ROUGH APPROXIMATIONS OF TIMING AND
LOCATION. THE ECMWF APPEARS SUBSTANTIALLY MORE ROBUST WITH RESPECT
TO SEVERE POTENTIAL -- PARTICULARLY BEYOND DAY 4...WITH ITS MUCH
SLOWER/NEGATIVELY-TILTED PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS
AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS WHICH SHIFTS A MUCH FLATTER SYSTEM QUICKLY EWD
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S./GREAT LAKES REGION.
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
MODEL DIVERGENCE...WILL ONCE AGAIN FOREGO AN AREAL HIGHLIGHT THIS
FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 03/28/2012
For people who thought this last cold snap was bad across the upper midwest & New England then wait as a more pronounced cold snap is coming and this looks to bring freezes all the way down to TN to NC early next week. Yikes!!
Quoting StormTracker2K:
For people who thought this last cold snap was bad across the upper midwest & New England then wait as a more pronounced cold snap is coming and this looks to bring freezes all the way down to TN to NC early next week. Yikes!!

I'm sorry, but that cannot be allowed.

It is currently 41 F. I've not seen morning temperatures like this in two/three weeks. It does not feel good either.
This could be the knock out punch to all the fruit trees and fruits across the mid south. Very very bad if this does happen as it looks as if the models are converging on a strong push of cold air than the one we just had.
Post 292 I know I would post the models but the blog is screwed up. I can't even quote your comment.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This could be the knock out punch to all the fruit trees and fruits across the mid south. Very very bad if this does happen as it looks as if the models are converging on a strong push of cold air than the one we just had.

All they have is 40s/50s for lows in the south, 30s in the north, and highs in the 60s and 70s. I would not call this a strong push of cold air.
Quoting uncwhurricane85:



yeah snow on the i-95 corridor into southern v.a. hahahah i wish, but i dont see it happeneing either


you sound like people before the blizzard of 93
Post 295 if the models continue to fall into place then expect to see much lower numbers. If you remember this was the same issue last week and look this morning your at 41 which was not predicted by your NWS office this time last week. GFS and Euro overnight and this morning have seem to come into better agreement so we will have to see if this holds or do the models change again. I will say though further we go thru the week then you will know for sure what's coming.
Who in the NE is ready for Snow Showers.
Its been a while.
Post 296 I think people are still thinking we are in a La Nina pattern but that's not the case now that we are nearing Neutral conditions. I believe Aussie posted something about this yesterday afternoon. First half of April is looking stormy whether it be from heavy sonw events or severe wx. People in the south may want to watch this trend as well as we could have another case of active tornado outbreaks coming thru.

Post 274 shows it all look at all the moisture building across the C & Eastern Pacific. This is hwat will jump start the southern branch.

The lake Effect snow machine turned back on?




Here in Orlando we could use a cool down and some rain as it's bone dry here!

There was a pretty good size circle of sub 80 SST's in the Central Equatorial Pacific but that has quickly eroded over the last 8 days.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
There was a pretty good size circle of sub 80 SST's in the Central Equatorial Pacific but that has quickly eroded over the last 8 days.



Because the sun is directly over head there hahaha
Quoting weatherh98:


Because the sun is directly over head there hahaha


No, it's because of the weakening easterly trade winds. Hence the weakening La-Nina infact we are now closing in on Neutral.

If your from Orlando then you will understand.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
If your from Orlando then you will understand.




since i am not from orlando, can you explain?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



since i am not from orlando, can you explain?


That building was built 10 years ago but never finished as the Church that was building it ran out of money. This building is right on I-4 and can be seen for miles. I work just a few miles from this building here in Altamonte Springs.
Quoting RitaEvac:






Those areas needed that rain bad as they haven't seen the rain that eastern TX has seen.

That is a really good soaking rain there in South Texas. It's good to see South and West Texas getting in on some of the love...
Quoting StormTracker2K:


That building was built 10 years ago but never finished as the Church that was building it ran out of money. This building is right on I-4 and can be seen for miles. I work just a few miles from this building here in Altamonte Springs.


There is usually very hefty FINES when not finished in a reasonable time....dealing with a Church might be different tho........
The NW Caribbean really jumped up in the last two days or so....




Very disturbing SST pattern setting up for this season. 2-3 degree Celsius anomalies all along the U.S. coast.


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
754 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MISSOURI...

OSAGE RIVER NEAR SCHELL CITY AFFECTING BATES AND VERNON COUNTIES


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS.

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/
INDEX.PHP?WFO=SGF (ALL LOWER CASE)

&&

MOC013-217-290354-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120329T1558Z/
/SCZM7.1.ER.120321T1722Z.120325T1245Z.120328T1558 Z.NO/
754 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE OSAGE RIVER NEAR SCHELL CITY.
* AT 7:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.2 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 30.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
LATE THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 30.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS AFFECT THE SCHELL OSAGE
CONSERVATION AREA, THE OLD RIVER ROAD NORTH OF SCHELL CITY AND LOST
CREEK ROAD WEST OF SCHELL LAKE. FLOOD WATERS OVERFLOW THE MAIN
RIVER CHANNEL AT THE GAGE SITE.
&&
LAT...LON 3803 9416 3799 9406 3806 9406 3807 9415

$$
Quoting StormTracker2K:


That building was built 10 years ago but never finished as the Church that was building it ran out of money. This building is right on I-4 and can be seen for miles. I work just a few miles from this building here in Altamonte Springs.


Why dont they sell it if it is still in good condition.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
The NW Caribbean really jumped up in the last two days or so....




Very disturbing SST pattern setting up for this season. 2-3 degree Celsius anomalies all along the U.S. coast.


we sure could use some tropical rains right about now, central florida is dry as a bone
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Why dont they sell it if it is still in good condition.


I don't know the building not even fully built.
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
754 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
MISSOURI...

OSAGE RIVER NEAR SCHELL CITY AFFECTING BATES AND VERNON COUNTIES


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOWING WATER. NEARLY HALF OF ALL FLOOD
FATALITIES ARE VEHICLE RELATED. AS LITTLE AS 6 INCHES OF WATER MAY
CAUSE YOU TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR VEHICLE. TWO FEET OF WATER WILL
CARRY MOST VEHICLES AWAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS.

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC
PREDICTION SERVICE PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/
INDEX.PHP?WFO=SGF (ALL LOWER CASE)

&&

MOC013-217-290354-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-120329T1558Z/
/SCZM7.1.ER.120321T1722Z.120325T1245Z.120328T1558 Z.NO/
754 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE OSAGE RIVER NEAR SCHELL CITY.
* AT 7:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 30.2 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 30.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
LATE THIS MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 30.0 FEET...FLOOD WATERS AFFECT THE SCHELL OSAGE
CONSERVATION AREA, THE OLD RIVER ROAD NORTH OF SCHELL CITY AND LOST
CREEK ROAD WEST OF SCHELL LAKE. FLOOD WATERS OVERFLOW THE MAIN
RIVER CHANNEL AT THE GAGE SITE.
&&
LAT...LON 3803 9416 3799 9406 3806 9406 3807 9415

$$
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Actually running a general weather site does sound tempting. I got the hardware to run one just need someone who is skilled in designing a website. I'm pretty sure you could run one hell of a site with just people off this blog. Time to start recruiting?


For your own weather blog or something similar, you can probably just download one of the open source packages out there and go from there. There are also open source tools to help develop your site, along with multiple different frameworks to choose from for incorporating interactivity and graphics into your site (GWT, jQuery, JSP, JSF, OpenLayers, etc.).

But if your talking about a real weather site (similar to NWS or AccuWeather), it takes a lot more than that. The website is just the eye candy, and probably the easiest part to create. You'll need some decent hardware if you're planning to run model ensembles (a decent supercomputer) and unless your very familiar with superomputing systems, their environments, and the models themselves you're in for one hell of a time trying to set that up (I speak from experience, science models in general are a PITA to work with). You'll also need certified mets for the analysis, regardless of whether you're generating the data or interpreting data from other sites.

It depends on what your goal is really.
Quoting jrweatherman:



I echo your comments. We're just in a cycle of warmer weather. 25 years from now we'll be talking about the next ice age.


Oh? And where is your scientific evidence of this statement? Because as of right now, most of the world's climatologists strongly disagree with that statement and have quite a bit of research and observation to back them up.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Good morning all...near normal temps for most of the US
323. MahFL
Quoting TampaSpin:


There is usually very hefty FINES when not finished in a reasonable time....dealing with a Church might be different tho........


If you've ran out of money building a building, your proberbly not too worried about a heafty fine, as you have no money !
324. MahFL
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Why dont they sell it if it is still in good condition.


You've not heard of the housing crisis and resulting recession, and record unemployment ?
SST anomalyMarch 27, 2012
Quoting ILwthrfan:
The NW Caribbean really jumped up in the last two days or so....




Very disturbing SST pattern setting up for this season. 2-3 degree Celsius anomalies all along the U.S. coast.



The NW Carib always jumps around this time of year. As for the anomalies, those are all from the heat wave the past few weeks. Since those areas are right along the gulf stream, the anomalies will be distributed out over the next few weeks to be a little less "glaring".
Quoting nigel20:
SST anomalyMarch 27, 2012

I see El nino about to say hello.
March 27, 2011

Quoting MahFL:


You've not heard of the housing crisis and resulting recession, and record unemployment ?


Yes, I have, but a building like that could still change hands, rather than just lying around for years.
It would be a good investment for someone, and if I was an adult and had enough money, or if my business had enough capital, i would buy it to sell at some other time, even if i did not use it myself.
When I woke up this morning a slushy mix of snow, ice and water covered almost everything...

It should melt rather quickly since the temperature is now at 2.3C and climbing.






Nothing unheard of but it feels strange nonetheless after a week of summer-like warmth.
Quoting nigel20:

Good morning all...near normal temps for most of the US
That's not what I'm seeing (unless you're talking about some future time, perhaps?). These maps from HAMweather show high and low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.. Note there is another West Coast cooldown by the end of the period.

DAY 1
WarmWarm

DAY 2
WarmWarm

DAY 3
WarmWarm

DAY 4
WarmWarm

DAY 5
WarmWarm
Pittsburgh is getting hit by some very fast moving severe storms. 65-70 mph.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
958 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

OHC081-PAC003-007-125-129-WVC009-029-281415-
/O.CON.KPBZ.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120328T1415Z/
JEFFERSON OH-ALLEGHENY PA-BEAVER PA-WASHINGTON PA-HANCOCK WV-
BROOKE WV-WESTMORELAND PA-
958 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM EDT
FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO...AND WESTMORELAND...
WASHINGTON AND ALLEGHENY COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND
BEAVER COUNTY IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND BROOKE AND HANCOCK
COUNTIES IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...

AT 953 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR IMPERIAL...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WEIRTON... SUN VALLEY... NEW MANCHESTER...
NEW CUMBERLAND... FOLLANSBEE... COLLIERS...
RACCOON CREEK STATE PARK... MOON...
MCDONALD... IMPERIAL... FLORENCE...
BURGETTSTOWN...

LAT...LON 4051 7956 4023 7959 4033 8078 4054 8072
TIME...MOT...LOC 1358Z 273DEG 56KT 4042 8020

$$
Quoting jeffs713:

The NW Carib always jumps around this time of year. As for the anomalies, those are all from the heat wave the past few weeks. Since those areas are right along the gulf stream, the anomalies will be distributed out over the next few weeks to be a little less "glaring".
not if a ridge rebuilds over that area
Quoting Neapolitan:
That's not what I'm seeing (unless you're talking about some future time, perhaps?). These maps from HAMweather show high and low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.. Note there is another West8 Coast cooldown by the end of the period.

DAY 1
WarmWarm

DAY 2
WarmWarm

DAY 3
WarmWarm

DAY 4
WarmWarm

DAY 5
WarmWarm

So, above average in most areas
Quoting RitaEvac:






This is going to be another teaser
TCHP

March, 27, 2011

March 27, 2012

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0371
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0923 AM CDT WED MAR 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST OH AND PA/MD TO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WV/VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 281423Z - 281630Z

MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED BASIS
THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN PA TO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
WV/MD/VA. WITH TIME...A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD BECOME MORE OF A
CONCERN INTO THE AFTERNOON. A WATCH COULD BECOME NECESSARY BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

BANDS OF ELEVATED STORMS...A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE...ARE
ONGOING FROM FAR EASTERN OH INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF PA AT
MID-MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND
ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALOFT.
WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS RELATIVELY DRY...12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
FROM PITTSBURGH/WILMINGTON OH REFLECT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM BETWEEN 700-500 MB ALONG WITH ELEVATED MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. WITH AMPLE VERTICAL
SHEAR...THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONGER/POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN WITH TIME. VERY STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS AND
MORE CONTEMPORARY WSR-88D VWP DATA...WITH 50+ KT WINDS SAMPLED AS
LOW AS 2-4 KM AGL. AND THUS...AS THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER
QUICKLY WARMS AMID RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES ON THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...STORMS WILL LIKELY
FURTHER INCREASE WITH DOWNDRAFTS MORE LIKELY TO COME INTO CONTACT
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS SUCH...AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN INTO THE AFTERNOON...SUCH THAT A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Here in Orlando we could use a cool down and some rain as it's bone dry here!



It has been indeed. The last time I remember us having a substantial excess of rainfall for any length of time was around the time tropical storm Fay wandered by in 2008. I picked up 13.5" of rain at my house in Maitland from that storm. Since then, the summer rainy seasons have been barely average to below average. Even last summer when some have reported that we had a couple months of normal, daily rainfall, it did not happen like that in my immediate area. I really hope the rainy season goes gangbusters this year to help with the aquifer. Already a bit tired of the hot sun beating down this year, making mildly warm days feel HOT(odd for a Floridian I know).
340. txjac
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


It has been indeed. The last time I remember us having a substantial excess of rainfall for any length of time was around the time tropical storm Fay wandered by in 2008. I picked up 13.5" of rain at my house in Maitland from that storm. Since then, the summer rainy seasons have been barely average to below average. Even last summer when some have reported that we had a couple months of normal, daily rainfall, it did not happen like that in my immediate area. I really hope the rainy season goes gangbusters this year to help with the aquifer. Already a bit tired of the hot sun beating down this year, making mildly warm days feel HOT(odd for a Floridian I know).



I feel (or rather felt) your pain ...
In Texas last year it felt like hell ...I couldnt take the heat (still in the kitchen though!) and rain was just not happening. I totally enjoy all the rain that we are getting this year and it is awesome to see everything green once again ...looked like straw for too long!
341. txjac
Wow! It's been quiet on here today!