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Haiti's tragic hurricane history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:15 PM GMT on January 15, 2010

The catastrophic earthquake of 2010 is only the latest--and worst--natural disaster to devastate the nation of Haiti. Up until the quake, the hurricane season of 2008 was the cruelest natural disaster ever experienced in Haiti. Four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on the impoverished nation. The rugged hillsides, stripped bare of 98% of their forest cover thanks to deforestation, let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country. Particularly hard-hit was Gonaives, the fourth largest city. According to reliefweb.org, Haiti suffered 793 killed, with 310 missing and another 593 injured. The hurricanes destroyed 22,702 homes and damaged another 84,625. About 800,000 people were affected--8% of Haiti's total population. The flood wiped out 70% of Haiti's crops, resulting in dozens of deaths of children due to malnutrition in the months following the storms. Damage was estimated at over $1 billion, the costliest natural disaster in Haitian history. The damage amounted to over 5% of the country's $17 billion GDP, a staggering blow for a nation so poor.


Figure 1. The flooded city of Gonaives after Hurricane Hanna, September 3, 2008. Image credit: Lambi Fund of Haiti.

The year 2008 was only one of many years hurricane have brought untold misery to Haiti. Hurricane Jeanne of 2004 passed just north of the country as a tropical storm, dumping 13 inches of rains on the nation's northern mountains. The resulting floods killed over 3,000 people, mostly in the town of Gonaives. Jeanne ranks as the 12th deadliest hurricane of all time on the list of the 30 most deadly Atlantic hurricanes . Unfortunately for Haiti, its name appears several times on this list. Hurricane Flora killed over 8,000 people in 1963, making it the 6th most deadly hurricane ever. An unnamed 1935 storm killed over 2,000, and Hurricane Hazel killed over 1,000 in 1954. More recently, Hurricane Gordon killed over 1,000 Haitians in 1994, and in 1998, Hurricane Georges killed over 400 while destroying 80% of all the crops in the country.


Figure 2. Hurricane Georges Approaching Haiti: September 22, 1998

Why does Haiti suffer a seemingly disproportionate number of natural disasters? The answer in that in large part, these are not natural disasters--they are human-caused disasters. Haiti is the poorest nation in the Western Hemisphere. With oil too expensive for the impoverished nation, charcoal from burnt trees has provided 85% or more of the energy in Haiti for decades. As a result, Haiti's 9 million poor have relentlessly hunted and chopped down huge amounts of forest, leaving denuded mountain slopes that rainwater washes down unimpeded. Back in 1980, Haiti still had 25% of its forests, allowing the nation to withstand heavy rain events like 1987's Category 3 Hurricane Emily, without loss of life. But as of 2004, only 1.4% of Haiti's forests remained. Jeanne and Gordon were not even hurricanes--merely strong tropical storms--when they stuck Haiti, but the almost total lack of tree cover contributed to the devastating floods that killed thousands. And it doesn't even take a tropical storm to devastate Haiti--in May of 2004, three days of heavy rains from a tropical disturbance dumped more than 18 inches of rain in the mountains, triggering floods that killed over 2,600 people.

What can be done to reduce these human-worsened natural disasters? Education and poverty eradication are critical to improving things. In addition, reforestation efforts and promotion of alternative fuels are needed. In the past two decades, the U.S. Agency for International Development has planted some 60 million trees, while an estimated 10 to 20 million of these are cut down each year, according to the USAID director in Haiti, David Adams. If you're looking for a promising way to make a charitable donation to help Haitian flood victims, considering sending a check to the Lambi Fund of Haiti, which is very active in promoting reforestation efforts, use of alternative fuels, and infrastructure improvements at a grass-roots level to help avert future flood disasters.

Portlight delivers much-needed water filtration systems and medical supplies to Haiti
Portlight.org, the disaster-relief charity that has sprung up from the hard work and dedication of many members of the wunderground.com community, has successfully shipped medical equipment and a water filtration unit capable of supplying the needs of 3,800 people per day to the Dominican Republic, where it will be trucked to Haiti via road. Portlight is working through the local Catholic Church, which is probably best positioned to deliver private aid donations to those in need. Paul Timmons, leader of the Portlight relief efforts, wrote this to me today:

This is important:
We are now accepting donations of medical equipment and clinical supplies...

Please forward this info as far and wide as you can. Any groups collecting or with access to this kind of stuff can ship it to our Atlanta warehouse:

Portlight Strategies, Inc.
4900 Lewis Road
Stone Mountain, GA 30083

We have good contacts on Hispaniola who are able to get this stuff where it's needed.

We are also still in need of funds!


So, please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more and to donate. Floodman's blog has the latest info on Portlight's plan for Haitian relief. If you're interested in sponsoring an Honor Walk to help raise funds for the Haitians, please contact Paul Timmons of Portlight, via the Portlight.org blog. Portlight's Haitian relief efforts got a nice write-up in the Odessa American Online, a Texas newspaper, yesterday. Also, last night, Portlight booster Ron "Floodman" Myers was on the Barometer Bob Internet radio show.

For those of you more interested in helping out with the long-term rebuilding of Haiti's shattered infrastructure from the quake, I recommend a contribution to Lambi Fund of Haiti, a charity that is very active in promoting reforestation efforts, use of alternative fuels, and infrastructure improvements at a grass-roots level in Haiti. I've developed a great respect for the work they do in the country in the five years I've been a supporter.

I'll have a new post on Monday, when I'll be blogging from the 90th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, in Atlanta, Georgia.

Jeff Masters
Heading to haiti
Heading to haiti
LA County Fire Department search and rescue dogs and their firefighter handlers pose for one last picture at the LA County FD warehouse facility in Pacoima, Ca before boarding buses for the trip to March Air Force Base and then on to Haiti to help in the rescue of hundreds still trapped. The dogs are specially trained to locate victims buried in rubble. They are part of the LA County Task Force 2, Urban Search and Rescue Team who, along with counterparts in Fairfax, Va, are the first called to respond to any disaster worldwide.
Waiting for the ride
Waiting for the ride
Hunter, a very highly trained Border Collie, waits for his firefighter handler so they can board a bus for the trip to March Air Force Base and then on the Haiti. Hunter is part of LA County FD Task Force 2, Urban Search and Rescue Team. This team and another in Fairfax, Va are deployed to anywhere in the world when disaster strikes...

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting aquak9:
turned my crew into a crack med team tonight."

They can know they are all doing God's work. And their families must be so proud. I know I'd be.

Thanks for the story, Ike. very nice read, first cuppa coffee.


Good morning, looks like a rainy day for Jacksonville today, StormW has the SPC map showing the possibility for severe weather over parts of the FL Peninsula.

I stand corrected, I was wrong, eating a lil' crow this morning, while I drink my morning coffee.

Good morning StormW, good morning everybody!
Quoting aquak9:
turned my crew into a crack med team tonight."

They can know they are all doing God's work. And their families must be so proud. I know I'd be.

Thanks for the story, Ike. very nice read, first cuppa coffee.


Dr. Gupta would have made a great Surgeon General but I'm glad he turned it down. He probably saved a life or 2 last night. I'm with LT General Honore. I've never seen anything like that. I could not believe the story when I heard it last night. So many sad stories.
Time for a caffiene infusion. Going to make a pot of TX mud.
Quoting severstorm:
Morning aii Ike i was watching that story unfold last night. Just unforgiveable. I have never seen anything like that. what were they thinking. UN piece of work!!!


If anybody has read my prior posts, they know of my disdain for the UN after working under their umbrella...a more corrupt organization I've not seen. Now, that said, I'm not surprised they pulled physicians and nurses. I've seen first hand the level of lawlessness there and this desperation will go beyond even what many of us have seen. The only way I can describe what I've been through is for you to imagine the Rodney King riots. It doesn't take much when you are the poorest country in the western hemisphere. You're starving. You've seen far too much death. You're frustrated. You have seen far too much corruption in your government and, if you speak out, chances are you won't be speaking long. When you start to really look at what the people have been through, you can begin to understand the level of lawlessness and anger.

However, even with the UN pulling its people out of harms way, if I were a doctor or nurse working for the UN, I'd stay. I'd tell the UN brass where they could go and get on with the business at hand.
How come nobody told me it was Auburn's Birthday??!!

You're all in this with Aubie:

507. IKE
Quoting trinigal:


If anybody has read my prior posts, they know of my disdain for the UN after working under their umbrella...a more corrupt organization I've not seen. Now, that said, I'm not surprised they pulled physicians and nurses. I've seen first hand the level of lawlessness there and this desperation will go beyond even what many of us have seen. The only way I can describe what I've been through is for you to imagine the Rodney King riots. It doesn't take much when you are the poorest country in the western hemisphere. You're starving. You've seen far too much death. You're frustrated. You have seen far too much corruption in your government and, if you speak out, chances are you won't be speaking long. When you start to really look at what the people have been through, you can begin to understand the level of lawlessness and anger.

However, even with the UN pulling its people out of harms way, if I were a doctor or nurse working for the UN, I'd stay. I'd tell the UN brass where they could go and get on with the business at hand.


It doesn't take long to understand how much they value a human life, when they simply dump bodies into a pit along with other items. Then dump more bodies over that.

Human beings deserve more respect then that. Heck..I gave my dog more respect when he died. My wife and I made a nice grave for him...with rocks...and a headstone.

I understand it has something to do with the numbers of dead in Haiti, but they deserved more respect!
508. code1
The UN is denying that order this morning.
Quoting IKE:


It doesn't take long to understand how much they value a human life, when they simply dump bodies into a pit along with other items. Then dump more bodies over that.

Human beings deserve more respect then that. Heck..I gave my dog more respect when he died. My wife and I made a nice grave for him...with rocks...and a headstone.

I understand it has something to do with the numbers of dead in Haiti, but they deserved more respect!


You're right but, mind if I ask, where are they going to bury the bodies? The graveyards around the city there are filled. The graves are above ground because of the water table. Sadly, death is a way of life there. Life expectancy is only into the 50s. They have the highest rate of infant and maternal mortality rates in the western hemisphere. Sadly, the rate of murder is very high. Tragedy after tragedy after tragedy. There's really no place for the bodies and the longer they keep the bodies, the higher the rate of disease. At some point, they have to consider the living over the dead. I know that sounds heartless but that is their reality.
Quoting severstorm:
Hi jeff9641, So the weather in tampa will still be on the heavy side? how much rain?

CNTRL FL THIS EVE/EARLY SUN...
MCS NOW OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AND
EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A NNE/SSW ORIENTED QLCS AS UPR FLOW TEMPORARILY
BACKS DOWNSTREAM FROM LEAD UPR IMPULSE. THIS BEHAVIOR SHOULD ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED AIR MASS RECOVERY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA. GIVEN CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS... EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO
RISE INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPR 60S E/SE OF MCS.

THE QLCS SHOULD RESUME ITS EWD MOTION THIS EVE AND EARLY SUN AS UPR
FLOW VEERS AND STRENGTHENS. WITH 500 MB SW FLOW INCREASING TO
AROUND 60 KTS ATOP 40-50 KT CONFLUENT SSWLY LOW LVL FLOW...WIND
PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS.
COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPR DIFFLUENCE... SETUP WILL YIELD A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR DMGG WIND AND TORNADOES.
Quoting trinigal:


You're right but, mind if I ask, where are they going to bury the bodies? The graveyards around the city there are filled. The graves are above ground because of the water table. Sadly, death is a way of life there. Life expectancy is only into the 50s. They have the highest rate of infant and maternal mortality rates in the western hemisphere. Sadly, the rate of murder is very high. Tragedy after tragedy after tragedy. There's really no place for the bodies and the longer they keep the bodies, the higher the rate of disease. At some point, they have to consider the living over the dead. I know that sounds heartless but that is their reality.


New reports have stated that there was a mass grave with about 14,000 people buried.

I sure wish the big guns, the US, China, Russia, UK, France would get together and make a quick plan to clear some roads, move the needed supplies in by road and by helicoptor like right now.
I was watching my local news last night and saw that the Canadian Government stepped up and waived all visa requirements and allowed a Belgian aircraft and a Russian aircraft to refuel on their way to Haiti yesterday, glad to see our PM isn't a total dipwad. We also have 50K peacekeepers on standby to go down to help calm things down and Government is matching dollar for dollar what Canadians are donating to the Red Cross and other charities as well as a separate pledge of 50M dollars to help.
Good Morning.......Looks like exact composition of the Gulf low was a very tricky forecast and that a stong frontal line will not form; good news for Florida today I hope rain notwithstanding:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
948 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12 UTC REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS DID NOT QUITE TURN OUT LIKETHE MODELS HAD ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THERE APPEARED TO BE A DOUBLE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER STRUCTURE IN THE GULF...WITH THE MAIN CENTER LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE WEAKER ONE LOCATED OFF THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM YESTERDAY PLACED THE LOW IN BETWEEN THESE TWO LOWS AND CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THIS MEANS THAT THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN EXPECTED... AN IMPRESSIVE MCS ACCOMPANIES THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF. THE 12 UTC
KTAE SOUNDING SHOWED A STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AS EXPECTED...BUT THE IMPLICATION OF THE WARM FRONT BEING SO FAR SOUTH NOW IS THAT
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY NOT GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. IN FACT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY HARD TO COME BY AND WILL LIKELY
BE CONFINED TO OUR FL ZONES AND ELEVATED. THUS THE PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKS SLIM TO NONE...

BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS... IT APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAT A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED HEAVY RAIN BAND WILL FORM LATER TODAY...
Interesting to note the different "twists", in terms of possible severe weather, netween the Tally NWS office and Tampa NWS..:) I hope that Central/South Florida gets the rain and not supercells with tornadoes........All depends on the setup later today between the "warm" sector of the front and daytime heating from the sun.
I dont understand why the US and all the other countries involved dont coordinate food, water and medical supply drops into Haiti! This makes sense seeing how the roads are blocked for massive distribution. It looks like they could use the military to guard the drops and then distrubute much needed supplies alot faster!
516. jipmg
Crazy strong winds here in SFL, and already near 80

first day of 2010 that actually feels miserably hot.
Quiet on the blog this am.......Have a safe day in Florida if you have to drive on what will be a very rainly day.......I'm out.
Bordano, and what is a pot of Texas mud btw?
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Interesting to note the different "twists", in terms of possible severe weather, netween the Tally NWS office and Tampa NWS..:) I hope that Central/South Florida gets the rain and not supercells with tornadoes........All depends on the setup later today between the "warm" sector of the front and daytime heating from the sun.


Believe me it is 74 with a dewpoint of 67 north of Orlando. Very steamy right now across C FL.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Bordano, and what is a pot of Texas mud btw?


Just a whole bunch of coffee and a lil' bit of water, Any of my kids who've tried it made the weirdest faces and dumped their cups of coffee in the sink

However, it's not as bad as Louisiana coffee :o)
Interesting! Obama just finished a news conference on Haiti, with former President's Bush and Clinton are going to join hands in the Haiti Relief Efforts.

God bless their efforts a good idea! Link
Quoting jipmg:
Crazy strong winds here in SFL, and already near 80

first day of 2010 that actually feels miserably hot.


It actually feels great outside with windy conditions currently.For beach goers a strong onshore windflow will result in a high risk of rip currents.Models show nothing but a strong zonal flow for the next week or so.

adrian
Most if not all dynamics should stay well north of dade/broward counties with this current system. Brief dip into the upper 50's early next week but i'll take that over the historic cold we had last weekend.
Quoting stormsurge39:
I dont understand why the US and all the other countries involved dont coordinate food, water and medical supply drops into Haiti! This makes sense seeing how the roads are blocked for massive distribution. It looks like they could use the military to guard the drops and then distrubute much needed supplies alot faster!
you can not drop anything there it would be like droppin a rabbit in a cage full of hungry wolves
Quoting hurricane23:
Most if not all dynamics should stay well north of dade/broward counties with this current system. Brief dip into the upper 50's early next week but i'll take that over the historic cold we had last weekend.


Hey "Killer," good to see you. How you doing?
Quoting Bordonaro:


Just a whole bunch of coffee and a lil' bit of water, Any of my kids who've tried it made the weirdest faces and dumped their cups of coffee in the sink

However, it's not as bad as Louisiana coffee :o)

I think you mean "not as good as Louisiana coffee"
;-)
529. IKE
Quoting trinigal:


You're right but, mind if I ask, where are they going to bury the bodies? The graveyards around the city there are filled. The graves are above ground because of the water table. Sadly, death is a way of life there. Life expectancy is only into the 50s. They have the highest rate of infant and maternal mortality rates in the western hemisphere. Sadly, the rate of murder is very high. Tragedy after tragedy after tragedy. There's really no place for the bodies and the longer they keep the bodies, the higher the rate of disease. At some point, they have to consider the living over the dead. I know that sounds heartless but that is their reality.


At least take a picture of them in the event someone can identify them. They did that after the Tsunami that killed so many.

How many bodies are they dumping in those pits that are American that someone would like to at least identify.
Quoting IKE:


At least take a picture of them in the event someone can identify them. They did that after the Tsunami that killed so many.

How many bodies are they dumping in those pits that are American that someone would like to at least identify.


There are places on this earth that human life is not considered valuable or important. Usually they are the places with the most poverty. Not pretty -- but real. If you have traveled the globe you would have a sense of what it is really like out there. It really makes "survival of the fittest" an understandable term and gives it meaning that most Americans cannot fathom.
Link

Link to recent article concerning the deceased in Haiti
Quoting IKE:


At least take a picture of them in the event someone can identify them. They did that after the Tsunami that killed so many.

How many bodies are they dumping in those pits that are American that someone would like to at least identify.


You'll have to forgive my ignorance on the matter, since my husband's last deployment, I avoid all televised news. Are they not taking photos? Just thinking 'aloud' but I'd have to imagine, this would be a lot more difficult than in the Indonesian quake. On a good day, it is not always easy to travel around Haiti. The devastated area would be more concentrated here than in the Indonesian tsunami area. The local people are all too well acquainted with the concept of disease and the smell that comes of rotting bodies. They want these bodies buried quickly. The people who have made it in are most likely concentrating more on rescue efforts. I agree completely that an effort ought to be made to identify the bodies and photos would certainly be best right now. I guess I just wouldn't be surprised if that is not happening.
534. IKE
Quoting SQUAWK:


There are places on this earth that human life is not considered valuable or important. Usually they are the places with the most poverty. Not pretty -- but real. If you have traveled the globe you would have a sense of what it is really like out there. It really makes "survival of the fittest" an understandable term and gives it meaning that most Americans cannot fathom.


Proud to be an American. We have a lot going for us in this country.
Quoting IKE:


At least take a picture of them in the event someone can identify them. They did that after the Tsunami that killed so many.

How many bodies are they dumping in those pits that are American that someone would like to at least identify.
Canada's federal government says 1,415 Canadians are believed to be missing in the earthquake-struck Caribbean nation of Haiti, how many of those have already been dispose of i wonder may never find them i reckon
536. IKE
Quoting trinigal:


You'll have to forgive my ignorance on the matter, since my husband's last deployment, I avoid all televised news. Are they not taking photos? Just thinking 'aloud' but I'd have to imagine, this would be a lot more difficult than in the Indonesian quake. On a good day, it is not always easy to travel around Haiti. The devastated area would be more concentrated here than in the Indonesian tsunami area. The local people are all too well acquainted with the concept of disease and the smell that comes of rotting bodies. They want these bodies buried quickly. The people who have made it in are most likely concentrating more on rescue efforts. I agree completely that an effort ought to be made to identify the bodies and photos would certainly be best right now. I guess I just wouldn't be surprised if that is not happening.


Nope.
Quoting IKE:


Proud to be an American. We have a lot going for us in this country.


Yup. It is also why we have a difficult time understanding some of the things that transpire in other parts of the world. Even our politicians don't get it a lot of the time. Their frame of reference does not give them the wisdom they need to be effective.
538. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Canada's federal government says 1,415 Canadians are believed to be missing in the earthquake-struck Caribbean nation of Haiti, how many of those have already been dispose of i wonder may never find them i reckon


Agree...they may never be identified.
A lot of times living in this over-priced, congested area pays off. All I have to do is drop off some items at a neighbor's house and she's taking the items to the Haitian Embassy in D.C.

BTW, even though the Presidents said money and not blankets and such are not being asked for at this time...the Haitian Embassy does have them on their list. I'm sure it's just a matter of logistics, shipping, and who and what organizations can actually get stuff in.

This is a little long, sorry about used blog space, but I thought some might be interested.
--------------------------------

Hello neighbors, I am forwarding this request for items urgently needed in survival kits to be dispersed to Haitians as soon as possible. We are taking a load to the Haitian Embassy Sunday afternoon so anything can be brought to (edit: her house) too.
*************************
If you are not able to attend the Haitian Survival Kit Drive , you can drop off your donations on Sunday at the Embassy of the Republic of Haiti. They will be accepting donations between 11AM and 4PM. The Embassy is located at 2311 Massachusetts Avenue NW, DC. Future drives will be scheduled as well. Stay tuned. You also can help by making a donation to the American Red Cross/Haitian Relief Fund by testing the word “HAITI” to 90999 and $10 will be added to your cell phone bill for Red Cross efforts. Or you can text “YELE” to 501501 to contribute $5 on your cell phone bill.

Below is a list of items needed immediately. Many of those can be found at your local dollar store or one stop shopping places such as Target, Wal-Mart or Costco.

ITEMS BEING COLLECTED:
Baby formula (dry/powder)
Baby wipes
Baby bottles
Diapers
Baby clothes
Toiletries (shampoo, soap, toothpaste)
Hand sanitizer
Vitamins
First aid kits
Over the counter medicines
Socks
Blankets
Mosquito repellent
Flashlights
Batteries
Candles
Flip flops
T-shirts, pants, lightweight jacket
Non perishable food that’s not in cans (seal-packs of tuna or sardines, for example) There are dozens more items; this is just a starter list. Think flat, lightweight, easily packable.

I would appreciate you sharing this information with your families, friends and neighbors because a significant effort is needed to get Haiti through this tragedy. Thank you for your support and generosity and keep Haiti and our families in your thoughts and prayers.

Warm Regards,
Darnley

Quoting trinigal:


You'll have to forgive my ignorance on the matter, since my husband's last deployment, I avoid all televised news. Are they not taking photos? Just thinking 'aloud' but I'd have to imagine, this would be a lot more difficult than in the Indonesian quake. On a good day, it is not always easy to travel around Haiti. The devastated area would be more concentrated here than in the Indonesian tsunami area. The local people are all too well acquainted with the concept of disease and the smell that comes of rotting bodies. They want these bodies buried quickly. The people who have made it in are most likely concentrating more on rescue efforts. I agree completely that an effort ought to be made to identify the bodies and photos would certainly be best right now. I guess I just wouldn't be surprised if that is not happening.
Quoting IKE:


Proud to be an American. We have a lot going for us in this country.


Please, don't think for a moment that Haitians do not value life. On the contrary, I found them to take great delight in life (Carnival aside LOL). Yes, there are those in Haiti who do not value life (i.e. of the Tonton Macoute variety) and there are those, as in this country, who will race to riot given the opportunity. I do not believe the quick burial of the dead points to a devaluing of life. They are trying to preserve the life of those still alive.

And, yes, very proud to be an American. I've experience life among the poorest of the poor and we have so much here. We really do. Many of our poor have a television, shoes and floors in their homes. Far too many houses in Haiti have no floors, no water, no electricity and I never ceased to be amazed by how fast young children who had never owned a pair of shoes could run on gravel roads.

note: keep in mind, I did much of my work at the Presidential Palace or in the slums around Port au Prince. When I speak, I am speaking of these areas. Petionville has a higher standard of living. The areas in most trouble right now with the most anger are the poorer areas. I am fairly certain of that.
541. GBlet
Here we think of fast food in the drive thru, there fast food means you had better be fast enough to catch it.
Haiti,or Port Au prince is a City Wide MCI.

In A Mass Casualty Incident one has to Bury the DEAD as quickly as possible to prevent a Wider Scale Epidemic of Cholera,Dysentery or worse.

Sad as it iz..the removal and Mass Burials of the lost is a Sad thing in and of itself.

We grieve for all those lost.

After a few days of Heat,Facial recognition becomes impossible of the lost,..

Its sometimes hard for us far removed from the suffering to sometimes understand,.but the necessity of the Situation,often dictates the methods.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you can not drop anything there it would be like droppin a rabbit in a cage full of hungry wolves
I understand you cant just drop it in there! I said to coordinate the drop with the military on the ground where the drop is made!
544. IKE
Quoting trinigal:


Please, don't think for a moment that Haitians do not value life. On the contrary, I found them to take great delight in life (Carnival aside LOL). Yes, there are those in Haiti who do not value life (i.e. of the Tonton Macoute variety) and there are those, as in this country, who will race to riot given the opportunity. I do not believe the quick burial of the dead points to a devaluing of life. They are trying to preserve the life of those still alive.

And, yes, very proud to be an American. I've experience life among the poorest of the poor and we have so much here. We really do. Many of our poor have a television, shoes and floors in their homes. Far too many houses in Haiti have no floors, no water, no electricity and I never ceased to be amazed by how fast young children who had never owned a pair of shoes could run on gravel roads.


I didn't mean it toward the people, but whoever is in charge, if there is anyone.
Quoting stormsurge39:
I understand you cant just drop it in there! I said to coordinate the drop with the military on the ground where the drop is made!

It's gonna' happen; keep an eye on the AP
and Reuters.
To coordinate a drop on the ground with military present, seems alot faster than getting the roads cleared to help people! they would send the troops in by helicopter, plane parachute, whatever first.
547. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Haiti,or Port Au prince is a City Wide MCI.

In A Mass Casualty Incident one has to Bury the DEAD as quickly as possible to prevent a Wider Scale Epidemic of Cholera,Dysentery or worse.

Sad as it iz..the removal and Mass Burials of the lost is a Sad thing in and of itself.

We grieve for all those lost.

After a few days of Heat,Facial recognition becomes impossible of the lost,..

Its sometimes hard for us far removed from the suffering to sometimes understand,.but the necessity of the Situation,often dictates the methods.


Good points, but what if "the big one" happens in California one day and thousands are killed or even tens of thousands? Do you think it would be handled the same way...or, with more dignity? Taking everything into consideration...preventing epidemics spreading,etc.?
Quoting IKE:


Good points, but what if "the big one" happens in California one day and thousands are killed or even tens of thousands? Do you think it would be handled the same way...or, with more dignity? Taking everything into consideration...preventing epidemics spreading,etc.?


Like I said..sometimes the situation,dictates the method,.and well,thats the sad reality of calamity.
Environment
The Devastating Haiti Earthquake: Questions and Answers
By LiveScience Staff
posted: 13 January 2010 11:21 am ET

The earthquake that devastated Haiti Tuesday was the strongest temblor to hit the island nation in more than 200 years. The magnitude 7.0 quake caused tremendous damage that officials have yet to fully characterize, and the death toll may run into the thousands.

What caused the Haiti earthquake, and why was it so devastating? Here are answers to these and other questions:
Quoting IKE:


Good points, but what if "the big one" happens in California one day and thousands are killed or even tens of thousands? Do you think it would be handled the same way...or, with more dignity? Taking everything into consideration...preventing epidemics spreading,etc.?
Haiti had no systems or protocol set in place for something like this! These are mostly local people doing this! The USA would be different because of our sysyems and protocol!
Already seen and put American bodies aside here in 2005 till the reefers arrived,so its already occurred here Ike,..

Sadly..

How soon we easily forget,..I wont ever though.

One has to press on for the Living,and survivors.
Quoting IKE:


Good points, but what if "the big one" happens in California one day and thousands are killed or even tens of thousands? Do you think it would be handled the same way...or, with more dignity? Taking everything into consideration...preventing epidemics spreading,etc.?


If the situation ever became desperate enough, this could happen anywhere. However, I cannot even compare this to the Katrina disaster. Knowing what I know about the culture, the people, the geography, et al...I believe this to be exponentially worse. Katrina just allowed us to get a glimpse into the desperation of many others in the world.
If you've ever been to a country like Hati, or similar, you begin to understand things do not operate there like they do in the US. As a matter of fact, the US is probably the exception to the rule. There are some developed nations like the US, but the largest percentage of the world is countries like Hati, Guatemala, etc, etc. My whole point is that we're not sending supplies and aid into a country that mirrors the US, so things are likely going to take more time to implement, and it's likely to be more difficult to provide that aid. Not the fault of the US, not the fault of Hati. Just like in any natural disaster, all we can do is our best, give what we can, help where we can, and pray. No sense in getting frustrated, cause it doesn't solve anything.
554. IKE
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Environment
The Devastating Haiti Earthquake: Questions and Answers
By LiveScience Staff
posted: 13 January 2010 11:21 am ET

The earthquake that devastated Haiti Tuesday was the strongest temblor to hit the island nation in more than 200 years. The magnitude 7.0 quake caused tremendous damage that officials have yet to fully characterize, and the death toll may run into the thousands.

What caused the Haiti earthquake, and why was it so devastating? Here are answers to these and other questions:


I noticed the USGS changed the depth of the Haitian earthquake(today I believe)...they lowered the depth.....Depth 13 km (8.1 miles) set by location program
555. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Already seen and put American bodies aside here in 2005 till the reefers arrived,so its already occurred here Ike,..

Sadly..

How soon we easily forget,..I wont ever though.

One has to press on for the Living,and survivors.


I thought about Katrina and Ike.
Quoting charlottefl:
If you've ever been to a country like Hati, or similar, you begin to understand things do not operate there like they do in the US. As a matter of fact, the US is probably the exception to the rule. There are some developed nations like the US, but the largest percentage of the world is countries like Hati, Guatemala, etc, etc. My whole point is that we're not sending supplies and aid into a country that mirrors the US, so things are likely going to take more time to implement, and it's likely to be more difficult to provide that aid. Not the fault of the US, not the fault of Hati. Just like in any natural disaster, all we can do is our best, give what we can, help where we can, and pray. No sense in getting frustrated, cause it doesn't solve anything.


Amen to that.
Has anybody heard if progress has been made in setting up the heavy equipment in clearing the roads to get mass distrubution to the Haitian people?
Top Navy Doc Predicts Long USNS Comfort Deployment

By Jim Garamone
American Forces Press Service
BALTIMORE, Jan. 16, 2010 – The chief of Navy medicine told the crew of the USNS Comfort here yesterday to prepare for a long deployment to Haiti.

Navy Vice Adm. (Dr.) Adam M. Robinson Jr. visited the crew of the Comfort as they prepared to leave Baltimore harbor this morning to sail to Haiti. He said the need is great in Haiti following the magnitude 7 earthquake that leveled the Haitian capital of Port-au-Prince on Jan. 12.

“This is not a training mission,” Robinson said. “I suspect that we will have medical and naval assets in Haiti [for] six months minimum, and I think longer than that.”

The medical staff aboard the Comfort mostly is from the National Naval Medical Center in Bethesda, Md., and Portsmouth Naval Hospital in Virginia. Other specialists from many other Navy hospitals and clinics in the United States are aboard the hospital ship.

Red Cross officials estimate that 40,000 to 50,000 people were killed in the earthquake. Countless thousands more are injured, and the Comfort is one platform that can deliver world-class medical care for those people, Robinson said.

“You are going to get first-hand experience in a very intense and a very critical situation in Haiti,” the admiral said.

Robinson, who led a medical hospital detachment in Haiti in 1999, said the deployment to Haiti will be “a life-defining assignment” for the Comfort crew. On the best days, he said, Haiti is a poor country. It is, in fact, the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere, and it suffers from poverty, deforestation and political uncertainty. Of the 5 million to 6 million people who live in Haiti, roughly 2 million live in and around Port-au-Prince. Before the earthquake struck, Haiti had recently been hit by hurricanes and floods.

The quake destroyed whatever infrastructure existed, Robinson said, and the country’s need is greater today by an order of magnitude.

Still, Robinson said, the medics need to pace themselves, and he asked the crew and medical staff to watch out for one another. “Make sure you have each others’ backs,” he said. Make sure you are there for one another when you need each other.” This, he said, will be very important when they have been deployed for months.

The scenes in Haiti will be terrible, Robinson warned the crew.

“You will see devastation and injuries and death and destruction that you’ve never seen before,” he said. “If you feel overwhelmed and feel the need to talk, … please – my medical children – don’t hesitate to do that. There is no shame in raising your hand and taking a timeout. There is no shame in asking for help.”

The admiral said he is incredibly proud of the professionals who came together on short notice to make the deployment happen. Medicine, he added, is a common language that all people understand, and it is a way to bridge differences.

“Be safe, be smart and take care of one another,” Robinson said. “If you do that, this is going to be a very successful mission.”



Speedy Delivery

The crew of a U.S. Navy MH-53E Sea Dragon helicopter from the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson unload food and supplies from a at the airport in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. U.S. Navy photo by MC2 Daniel Barker
Haiti Relief Efforts »
1,362 Canadians in Haiti are unaccounted for
Six Canadians are dead
781 Canadians have been found
460 Canadians have been evacuated to Canada
50 Canadians are in the Canadian embassy compound in Port au Prince
21,500 Canadians have called Foreign Affairs seeking and providing information about relatives and friends in Haiti
Mission Details (Jan. 16):


Currently, there are about 4,700 U.S. military personnel (in country & on ships) who are working with UN and local responders to provide search and rescue, disaster relief and ensure security of both people and supplies. Another 6,000 troops are expected to be in the vicinity of Haiti by Monday.

With agreement from the government of Haiti, U.S. Air Force personnel are managing air operations into the international airport at Port au Prince. The airfield is currently open for 24-hour ops, with a 90 aircraft per day capability (expected to increase soon).

Two of 10 Reverse Osmosis Purification Units (ROPUs) are in Haiti to make water.

A U.S. Navy underwater survey team is being deployed to provide underwater assessments of the main pier and port. The data will help planners determine the extent of damage and the way ahead.

The U.S. Navy aircraft carrier, USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) arrived off the coast of Haiti Friday. The ship's 19 helicopters are flying airflift missions in support of aid efforts. Helicopters from the ship are also delivering more than 30 pallets of relief supplies that were transported on Vinson. (More on U.S. Navy CVN carriers)

A steady stream of U.S. Air Force aircraft continue to move supplies and personnel into Haiti. Additionally, U.S. military unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and P-3 Orion aircraft are conducting a series of reconnaissance flights that are providing planners with valuable details of the situation on the ground.

An initial company from the 82nd Airborne Division arrived Thursday & the bulk of the 82nd Soldiers (about 700) are expected to arrive in the next few days. Their mission is to support UN security and support search & rescue efforts and provide additional command and control.

Elements of the U.S. Air Force 1st Special Operations Wing are in country helping. They initially deployed to the international airport at Port au Prince, Haiti, providing initial air traffic control capability and re-establishing airfield operations.

Four Coast Guard cutters and aircraft continue to support current search and rescue operations and provide security for the area.

USS Higgins is also now in Haiti and is supporting relief operations.

On the Way:

The hospital ship USNS Comfort is steaming toward Haiti. The ship departed Baltimore this morning and is expected to be on station near Haiti on Jan. 22. (USNS Comfort fact sheet)

The USS Bataan Amphibious Ready Group is set to deploy to Haiti. The group includes USS Bataan, USS Fort McHenry, USS Carter Hall, USS Gunston Hall and the 2,200-person 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit. The ships will also include an assortment of helicopters (#’s not finalized). The group, with 4,300 personnel in all, is expected to arrive on Monday.

Two additional ships, USS Underwood and USS Normandy are also headed to help. Two more Coast Guard cutters are expected to arrive today.

SOUTHCOM is closely monitoring the situation and is working with the U.S. State Department, United States Agency for International Development and the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance and other national and international agencies to determine how to best respond to this crisis.

Link
Good Afternoon folks. It is good to see that aid is arriving in Haiti, along with all the tools they will need to help the suffering Haiting population.

My prayers are that they will help the hurting, rescus the trapped, feed, clothe and provide safe drinking water, bury the deceased and help Haiti become a successful nation.
563. GBlet
Feel free to boot me off, but every other worthy cause has a nude calendar, so why can't Portlight? Call it "Disaster, The Naked Truth". Feature some of the beautiful that make up WUBA community.
Sounds like disaster response is almost in full force in Haiti, very good.

Dark and wet morning and afternoon here in the Panhandle. Plenty of rain has fallen. 98 percent humidity still though, so a possibility of heavy rains I would presume are still there by the end of the day.
Dew points are rising into the upper 60's here ahead of the cold front. Line of storms in the Gulf looks strong from local radar.
Quoting GBlet:
Feel free to boot me off, but every other worthy cause has a nude calendar,


and many unworthy ones as well LOL

So, you think it should feature Dr. Masters?
Quoting ElConando:
Sounds like disaster response is almost in full force in Haiti, very good.

Dark and wet morning and afternoon here in the Panhandle. Plenty of rain has fallen. 98 percent humidity still though, so a possibility of heavy rains I would presume are still there by the end of the day.
Where in the panhandle are you? I live 8 miles west of Defuniak Springs.
568. IKE
Quoting mossyhead:
Where in the panhandle are you? I live 8 miles west of Defuniak Springs.


I think he's in Tallahassee.

CNN's Anderson Cooper is reporting that a small girl is alive in the rubble of a collapsed school in Port-Au-Prince. Their trying to rescue her.
569. GBlet
BY ALL MEANS, in the most tasteful of poses of course.
Quoting GBlet:
BY ALL MEANS, in the most tasteful of poses of course.


LOL


good afternoon everyone
I was gonna propose something with Matt and an Urge but forget it xD.
I tell ya Ike..it blew here last night for round 2 Hours,almost like a TS.

Quoting Patrap:



Speedy Delivery

The crew of a U.S. Navy MH-53E Sea Dragon helicopter from the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson unload food and supplies from a at the airport in Port-au-Prince, Haiti. U.S. Navy photo by MC2 Daniel Barker
Haiti Relief Efforts »

Almost invokes a little guilt to be planning to do all the things that come with looking forward to and preparing to lock ourselves into a football game...

But, what can I say. Life going on, little I can do for Haiti today outside of telling everyone I know about portlight.

Some family on the way over, big pot of gumbo ready, and black and gold doberge cake almost done.
Quoting Patrap:
I tell ya Ike..it blew here last night for round 2 Hours,almost like a TS.



Was it just wind or was it still raining?
575. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
I tell ya Ike..it blew here last night for round 2 Hours,almost like a TS.



We've had about an inch of rain, but the winds haven't really been bad.
Quoting Patrap:
I tell ya Ike..it blew here last night for round 2 Hours,almost like a TS.


Did blow a bit last night. Not quite enough to drop branches in the yard...but close.

Rain started back up a while ago.
Wind and rain for sure.

Cyclonic round of weather it was.

More Like August.
Quoting ElConando:
I was gonna propose something with Matt and an Urge but forget it xD.



LOL um, that'd be a negative :P
Quoting IKE:


We've had about an inch of rain, but the winds haven't really been bad.


About the same here, it was a bit windy but that was before it started raining last night since then I'm guessing its been fairly calm with occasional gusts.
Wind starting to pick up now lol.
Quoting ElConando:


Was it just wind or was it still raining?

In Slidell, the rain had taken a little break just before our peak gusts. In the piney woods, a peak gust of 37 mph.

Hmmm, maybe I am just lucky to not have any branches down, that and only the pines have vegitation on those branches to catch the wind.
Geez, killed the blog the last 3 times I visited...
echo echo echo echo
Quoting atmoaggie:
echo echo echo echo


Lol
echo echo echo echo... No the blog has been real quiet today..
Quoting Patrap:
Wind and rain for sure.

Cyclonic round of weather it was.

More Like August.



Was pretty crazy, signs blowing all around
hello all. from nc.. i think, imo..it has been overload sensory,when i got off work ,lastnite,, i watched the blog and cnn for a while,, trying to figure out if i can do anything,, we did give a little,, i think i slept 1 hour , had horrid dreams,, trapped in a tunnel, not trying to say it was anything compared to what those brave people are going thru,, i cant imagine the horror,, i hope it does not rain in haiti, nothing more miserable , than to be wet and homeless,, may whom you believe in , pray for them ,
Today was the day they were to try & turn Cloudsat back on. I see 12 earth passes since yesterday (the 1st since last month). None have data from the sat.. Nothing in the sat statues yet. Fingers crossed.
Sky do you have a link to that


Whats up Peeps..
Wow, the radar presentation from the Tampa Bay NWS is looking pretty robust. Cloudy and breezy by me in Largo, FL right now...

Of course, this would be the night my family is going to visit my mom down in Bradenton. Hopefully, we can arrange that the car and the squall line don't hit the Sunshine Skyway at the same time :-)
Updated
Mission Details (Jan. 16):


Currently, there are about 4,700 U.S. military personnel (in country & on ships) who are working with UN and local responders to provide search and rescue, disaster relief and ensure security of both people and supplies. Another 6,000 troops are expected to be in the vicinity of Haiti by Monday. Overall, there are 30 helicopters supporting the mission.

With agreement from the government of Haiti, U.S. Air Force personnel are managing air operations into the international airport at Port au Prince. The airfield is currently open for 24-hour ops, with a 90 aircraft per day capability (expected to increase soon).

Two of 10 Reverse Osmosis Purification Units (ROPUs) are in Haiti to make water. Helicopters will airlift 26,000 Humanitarian Daily Rations (HDRs) from Guantanamo Bay to Haiti today. A total of 600,000 HDRs are slated to arrive in the coming days.

A U.S. Navy underwater survey team is being deployed to provide underwater assessments of the main piers and port. The data will help planners determine the extent of damage and the way ahead. Current estimates state that the main will be unusable for 60-90 days.

The aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) continues support after arriving off the coast of Haiti Friday. The ship's 19 helicopters are flying airflift missions in support of aid efforts. Helicopters from the ship also delivered 30 pallets of relief supplies that were transported on Vinson. (More on U.S. Navy CVN carriers)

Four U.S. Coast Guard cutters and aircraft continue to support current search and rescue operations and provide security for the area. USS Higgins is also now in Haiti and is supporting relief operations.

A steady stream of U.S. Air Force aircraft continue to move supplies and personnel into Haiti. Additionally, U.S. military unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and P-3 Orion aircraft are conducting a series of reconnaissance flights that are providing planners with valuable details of the situation on the ground.

An initial company from the 82nd Airborne Division arrived Thursday & the bulk of the 82nd Soldiers (about 700) are expected to arrive in the next few days. Their mission is to support UN security and support search & rescue efforts and provide additional command and control.

Elements of the U.S. Air Force 1st Special Operations Wing are in country helping. They initially deployed to the international airport at Port au Prince, Haiti, providing initial air traffic control capability and re-establishing airfield operations. Also, a SOUTHCOM assessment team and command & control element are in Haiti coordinating military efforts.


On the Way:

The hospital ship USNS Comfort is steaming toward Haiti. The ship departed Baltimore this morning and is expected to be on station near Haiti on Jan. 22. (USNS Comfort fact sheet)

The USS Bataan Amphibious Ready Group is set to deploy to Haiti. The group includes USS Bataan, USS Fort McHenry, USS Carter Hall, USS Gunston Hall and the 2,200-person 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit. The ships will also include an assortment of helicopters (#’s not finalized). The group, with 4,300 personnel in all, is expected to arrive on Monday.

Other ships, including USS Underwood , USS Normandy, USS Bunker Hill, USNS Big Horn, USNS Grasp, USNS 1st LT Jack Lummus and USNS Henson are also headed to help. Two more Coast Guard cutters are expected to arrive today. (Fact Files on U.S. Navy ships)


SOUTHCOM is closely monitoring the situation and is working with the U.S. State Department, United States Agency for International Development and the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance and other national and international agencies to determine how to best respond to this crisis.


Link
Hey guys need some help! I am "working" with Presslord & Portlight on their Haiti relief mission. I have teamed Portlight and a friend of mine up.

He has family that he is unable to contact and is also going to do some recon and make security recommendations for Portlight before their personnel get to Haiti. He has a free trip, but we still needs some help!

A little background - He is a 15 year veteran of the Miami-Dade Police Department, he was born in Haiti. He speaks fluent creole, has knowledge of the island, and has numerous unaccounted for friends and family.

We are trying to get a satellite phone for him to take with him - as traditional cell phones are not working that great.

What we are asking for is if someone knows where to get a satellite phone for free or cheap?? Can also be loaner as he will be coming back to the US.

Presslord is "on the road" and couldn't make the post himself. But if you could WUMAIL me AND HIM it would be great. I want Presslord to coordinate all of this - I am trying to get this out ASAP.
Its about to get bad here.
597. GBlet
I need some really good info! I have a friend on her way out of Atlanta on I-20 on her way to Lafayette with a reefer unit. I need to get weather info to her.
Thanks Sky
Quoting Dakster:
Hey guys need some help! I am "working" with Presslord & Portlight on their Haiti relief mission. I have teamed Portlight and a friend of mine up.

He has family that he is unable to contact and is also going to do some recon and make security recommendations for Portlight before their personnel get to Haiti. He has a free trip, but we still needs some help!

A little background - He is a 15 year veteran of the Miami-Dade Police Department, he was born in Haiti. He speaks fluent creole, has knowledge of the island, and has numerous unaccounted for friends and family.

We are trying to get a satellite phone for him to take with him - as traditional cell phones are not working that great.

What we are asking for is if someone knows where to get a satellite phone for free or cheap?? Can also be loaner as he will be coming back to the US.

Presslord is "on the road" and couldn't make the post himself. But if you could WUMAIL me AND HIM it would be great. I want Presslord to coordinate all of this - I am trying to get this out ASAP.
Link Hope this might help.
I've found a charity site where you can give for free by clicking once per day. That's just one of many ways you can give on that site.

Currently their doing a campaign for the Haitian Earthquake.

Link

The greatest potential for severe thunderstorms looks to be dead on for Tampa, Orlando, and Daytona Beach.
Daytona Beach (Ponce Inlet), FL, Daytona Beach, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 11 sec ago
66.5 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: 61 °F
Wind: 3.0 mphfrom the SSE
Wind Gust: 8.0 mph
Pressure: 30.00 in(Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Clouds: Mostly Cloudy 8500 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 12 ft

Light rain with a moderate east breeze all day, but getting darker---looks like the real rain is moving in.
Aside from GA & AL, it might get interesting in FL tonight too.
7-7 Saints/Cardinals (6 minutes in) is that possible?
Quoting Bordonaro:
echo echo echo echo... No the blog has been real quiet today..

I think people are stunned by the magnitude of this devastation and a grim outlook.

In the future there will be more havoc like this from climate change. So in order to prepare and minimize future casualties people need to stop emitiing greenhouse gases. All nations need to exchange there fossil fuel dependencies to renewable energy ressources. Gas car to electro, wind and solar instead of buring coal all those.
If the world stays at this pace on emitting greenhouse gases we all face a similar future like we see today in haiti.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

I think people are stunned by the magnitude of this devastation and a grim outlook.

In the future there will be more havoc like this from climate change. So in order to prepare and minimize future casualties people need to stop emitiing greenhouse gases. All nations need to exchange there fossil fuel dependencies to renewable energy ressources. Gas car to electro, wind and solar instead of buring coal all those.
If the world stays at this pace on emitting greenhouse gases we all face a similar future like we see today in haiti.


are you saying the earthquake can be attributed to human greenhouse emissions?
forgive me all.. i love marble, colorado, i just wonder , if ,our doomsayer, drgo, would be much happier up there,, its cold, no power, and , not much to eat , maybe . his greenlap top will work,, kinda cloudy and snowy,,there is always a wind ,
Quoting tornadodude:


are you saying the earthquake can be attributed to human greenhouse emissions?

That was not my point. When i say what we see today consider the blog post from Dr Jeff Masters.

And yes climate change can trigger earthquakes aswell. This one seems to be driven by natural geological focres.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

That was not my point. When i say what we see today consider the blog post from Dr Jeff Masters.

And yes climate change can trigger earthquakes aswell. This one seems to be driven by natural geological focres.


Can you elaborate on that statement please?

the only humanmade disasters , in my op, are , 2001, sept 11,, when, i , my self,, can start to control , eq, weather,, so forth,, then , you may call me GOD,,this was not an offence to religion,, people , kill people,, the earth, rotates,, and , does what it , has 4 , some 1 tell me.. how many ?
Quoting tornadodude:


Can you elaborate on that statement please?


Did you noticed the ice sheet melting?
When ice melts, preasssure is released, which in turn can trigger earthquakes. Or did you read about the uptake in methane release in the recent 5 years?
Those can be methane clathrates sealed in the seabed, which due to warmer ocean can bubble up from the sediments. Which in turn can cause tsunamis or any kind of geological defomation. And contribute even more to the greenhouse effect.

There is more causes like drilling or air preassure.
The last blog post has some discussion on this.
LOL
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Did you noticed the ice sheet melting?
When ice is gone, preasssure is released, which in turn can trigger earthquakes. Or did you read about the uptake in methane release in the recent 5 years?
Those are methane clathrates sealed in the seabed, which due to warmer ocean can bubble up from the sediments. Which in turn can cause tsunamis or any kind of geological defomation. And contribute even more to the greenhouse effect.

There is more causes like drilling or air preassure.
The last blog post has some discussion on this.


Must have missed the whole ice melting thing :P

I have heard those things. Doesnt make them factual, but it is certainly an idea to entertain.

Did you hear that over the last 10 years the earth has been cooling? link
Quoting ElConando:
LOL


;)
Quoting tornadodude:


Did you hear that over the last 10 years the earth has been cooling? link

Here is a related wunderground blog
where in the hell is clinton gonna stay?? fly in and out? it seems there are more , freakin , reporters, there than, aid,, thank my self, i did met classes and fewer comm classes
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Here is a related wunderground blog




link
Quoting tornadodude:


Maybe read your post again, next heatwave, hurricane, drought, flood you name it.

Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Maybe read your post again, next heatwave, hurricane, drought, flood you name it.



explain please, thanks
Evening, everybody.

Whoohoo!!!!! It's 77 outside! Optimal weather! LOL

I went out today without even taking my jacket - first time in weeks - and almost got wet by a passing shower as a result. The weather has been warm today, without being abnormally hot. Mind u, 77 is more like December than January, but we are happy to have it. I'm watching to see if some of the storm energy passing to our north will dip south enough to influence our weather the next 2 days.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

I think people are stunned by the magnitude of this devastation and a grim outlook.

In the future there will be more havoc like this from climate change. So in order to prepare and minimize future casualties people need to stop emitiing greenhouse gases. All nations need to exchange there fossil fuel dependencies to renewable energy ressources. Gas car to electro, wind and solar instead of buring coal all those.
If the world stays at this pace on emitting greenhouse gases we all face a similar future like we see today in haiti.


Have a peek at some of these to help balance the knowledge on the subject matter :)

500 Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skepticism of "Man-Made" Global Warming
Quoting tornadodude:


are you saying the earthquake can be attributed to human greenhouse emissions?


At this point everything is being attributed to the emission of greenhouse gases. Doesn't matter if the earth heats, cools or stays the same.

You cannot argue with somebody's faith. I learned that a long time ago.
Quoting trinigal:


At this point everything is being attributed to the emission of greenhouse gases. Doesn't matter if the earth heats, cools or stays the same.

You cannot argue with somebody's faith. I learned that a long time ago.


yeah. That's true. Heck, if we go through more cooling periods, it will be man-made. Doesnt matter what the general public thinks. The media will almost always twist the "news."
I'm more interested in the Venezuela earthquake. Do u guys think this is likely to be an active period for the Caribbean plate? I do know there seems to be some historical support for activity in the area to come in "waves", that is periods of heightened activity followed by periods of relatively complete inactivity.....
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
ExxonMobil is the only oil giant directly funding junk science and groups that deny the science of global warming.


That's a great title to your argument. Isnt the point of arguing to persuade someone to believe your opinion, not offend them?
629. ayi
System isn't intensifying at this stage, probably because of proximity to land. Gove Peninsula.

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN at 5:00 am CST [5:30 am EST] Sunday 17 January 2010

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Elcho Island to Cape Shield in the NT and Pormpuraaw to Thursday Island in Queensland.

At 3:30 am CST [4:00 am EST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be 95 kilometres northeast of Nhulunbuy and 515 kilometres west northwest of Weipa and moving west at 6 kilometres per hour.

There is the possibility of a Tropical Cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours.

The system is expected to be slow moving until Monday, and GALES could develop on Monday morning between Cape Shield and Elcho Island, including Nhulunbuy, as the system intensifies into a cyclone.

The system is then expected to track eastwards across the Gulf of Carpentaria towards Cape York, and GALES could develop on Tuesday morning between Pormpuraaw and Thursday Island.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 am CST [4:00 am EST]:
.Centre located near...... 11.5 degrees South 137.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Sunday 17 January [11:30 am EST Sunday 17 January].

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and QLD-1300 659 212

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
ok ,i hate to do this,i will go kill the cows,, the donkey,, the rooster and the hens,, dang, i forgot the cat and dogs,, and, then, i thought,dang.. they might be edible,, drgo , is scarin me
Quoting tornadodude:


That's a great title to your argument. Isnt the point of arguing to persuade someone to believe your opinion, not offend them?



Right on target! I couldn't agree more.

Perhaps video's from the weather channel founder may help with the balance :)

KUSI meteorologist, Weather Channel founder, and iconic weatherman, John Coleman explains the science and controversy surrounding Global Warming

Hmmmm......

Quakes in Venezuela and Oklahoma



Caracas (AP)-Earthquakes in Venezuela and Oklahoma came right on the heels of the earthquake in Haiti. The Venezuelan earthquake measured 5.6 on the Richter Scale.


The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the epicenter of the quake was about 235 miles east of Caracas and only 800 miles from Port-au-Prince. Venezuela lies on the same Caribbean tectonic plat as Haiti.

Power outages have been reported, but, amazingly, there have been no reports of damage or injuries.

Meanwhile, near Oklahoma City, a 4.0 earthquake was measured on Friday morning.

The quake was centered in Jones City, about 17 miles from Oklahoma City. Earthquakes are considered rare for Oklahoma but this is actually the third earthquake to strike the same region this week.

Geologist say that any quake below 5.0 on the Richter scale is considered a small earthquake and will do minor damage.

Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Jan 16, 5:54 pm EST

Fog/Mist

34 °F
(1 °C)
Humidity: 92 %
Wind Speed: Calm
Barometer: 30.12" (1020.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 32 °F (0 °C)
Visibility: 6.00 mi.
Seems like so far the systems in the OZ area of influence are staying so close to land that they can't make much of themselves. Wonder what's steering that pattern....
Since for the conservatives narrow minded people to accept global warming is like a transgression to their religion believes , look at the facts: satellite pictures showing the increassing melting of the polar caps ,the melting of the glassiers, animal species wipe from the face of the earth, the destruction of the forest,for mining and all kind of natural resources around the world desappearing to support the appetite of the so call develop and industrialize countries and for their comodities. Or we wake up before is to late or the future generations are going to pay because the blindness, selfishness and petty politics among other things of our generation. But in the mean time, we can continue to entertain ourselves like the "brilliant" blogger "tornadodude", suggested with Dr. Masters blogs.
Quoting jurakantaino:
Since for the conservatives narrow minded people to accept global warming is like a transgression to their religion believes , look at the facts: satellite pictures showing the increassing melting of the polar caps ,the melting of the glassiers, animal species wipe from the face of the earth, the destruction of the forest,for mining and all kind of natural resources around the world desappearing to support the appetite of the so call develop and industrialize countries and for their comodities. Or we wake up before is to late or the future generations are going to pay because the blindness, selfishness and petty politics among other things of our generation. But in the mean time, we can continue to entertain ourselves like the "brilliant" blogger "tornadodude", suggested with Dr. Masters blogs.


I would have put the word blogger in quotes :P

but I am curious, when did I suggest we entertain ourselves with Dr. Master's blogs?
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
ExxonMobil is the only oil giant directly funding junk science and groups that deny the science of global warming.


American oil Companies like ExxonMobil are for too scrutinized to even consider funding something like that.

Were you the guy who said Exxon Mobil is the largest private oil company in the world?
Quoting ElConando:


American oil Companies like ExxonMobil are for too scrutinized to even consider funding something like that.

That is funny that you say this, maybe actualy read the source instead just quoeting me?

To make it easyer for you, there is video too.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

That is funny that you say this, maybe actualy read the source instead just quoeting me?

To make it easyer for you, there is video too.


how about instead of just quoting half of his quote, you quote all of it and answer his question?
Quoting tornadodude:


I would have put the word blogger in quotes :P

but I am curious, when did I suggest we entertain ourselves with Dr. Master's blogs?
Now, now boyz, how many times have I told you?


There is nothing wrong with news and information and blogs being entertaining...as long as the news and info programs are fair, balanced, and factual, a la the good programs, 60 Minutes, Nightline, Sunday Morning on CBS...

Now it's Saturday night, go get a beer, or if you're not of age, an "Urge."

I am entertained by Dr. Master's blogs in particular and Wunderground in general.
I am also informed.
Last time I watched, the Saints were running all over the Cardinals...lots of red on the ground.
As far as the teutonic plate shifts go, I would imagine atmospheric temperature change would have an effect on the earth's crust but cannot imagine it going in deeper; of note is the shallowness of this earthquake.
I notice brass nuts HRC stepped off an airplane in Haiti today. A good move imo.
If I hear any UN bashing I'm going to throw up.
They've already lost 400 in the quake unofficially; hopefully, that number will go down, not up.
Quoting tornadodude:


I would have put the word blogger in quotes :P

but I am curious, when did I suggest we entertain ourselves with Dr. Master's blogs?


Well, you are brilliantly entertaining. :)
Quoting PcolaDan:


Well, you are brilliantly entertaining. :)


thanks! I just try to keep a somewhat light mood on the blog, you know?

(there is a reason I switched to PR as my major)
45 to 14 Saints with about a minute to go in the third quarter at the SuperDome. Looks like foregone conclusion NO gets NFC East.

Purdue researchers studied Haitian fault; warned of potential for a large earthquake
January 15, 2010 Elizabeth Gardner
Print Version

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. - The potential for large earthquakes in Haiti and the Dominican Republic was forecast by a model of the northeastern Caribbean created by a team of experts.

Eric Calais, a professor of geophysics at Purdue University, led the research team that is the only group utilizing advanced measurement equipment along the Enriquillo and Septentrional faults in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. A numerical model of the forces building up beneath the Earth's surface suggested the potential for a magnitude 7.2 earthquake in Haiti and a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in the Dominican Republic, Calais said. The results were published in a 2008 paper in Geophysical Journal International.

"We can't predict when an earthquake will happen, but we can provide likely scenarios. We spoke with government officials to warn of the potential for large earthquakes in the country and to recommend ways to prepare," Calais said. "Unfortunately, our recommendations were not implemented in part because the earthquake hit too soon. Large earthquakes don't happen very often, and that is a good thing, but the bad thing is that we tend to forget about them. This is true for developing countries and rich countries alike. Haiti faces many difficulties and it is hard for this to be addressed when there are few resources and such urgent and pressing problems as hunger in the streets and a volatile political environment."

On Tuesday (Jan. 12) Haiti was struck by a magnitude 7.0 earthquake.

The National Science Foundation-funded study used data recorded by 30 GPS antennas mounted in the ground around fault lines in the northeastern Caribbean to analyze the motion of the faults and surrounding area for five years.

The GPS equipment used can measure surface movement as small as the thickness of a fishing line.

Andrew Freed, a collaborator on the project and Purdue associate professor of earth and atmospheric sciences, said this movement represents deformation of the Earth's crust and the buildup of energy that could be released as an earthquake.

"When the Earth's crust is put under stress, it deforms," Freed said. "Like a rubber band, the crust can only take so much stress before it breaks, causing an earthquake."

The Enriquillo fault is part of the boundary between two tectonic plates - the Caribbean Plate and the North American Plate - slowly rubbing against each other as they move in opposite directions. The team determined that the tectonic plates were moving apart at a rate of 2 centimeters per year and putting tremendous strain on the fault, he said.

"These movements happen slowly, and the strain accumulates over hundreds of years," Freed said. "If the stored energy is released in a single event, as happened in Haiti, it can have a tremendous and devastating impact."

The team used the GPS data and the historical record to create a model of strain accumulation for the area. The model allowed the researchers to evaluate the potential for, and possible magnitude of, present-day earthquakes in the area, he said.

Calais is now assembling a team to go to the earthquake site to measure the aftershocks and postseismic response of the area surrounding the fault.

"There will likely be aftershocks for a number of weeks that will provide a great deal of information, and surface displacements following the earthquake tell us a lot about the mechanical properties of the Earth's crust, which help us to better understand seismic potential," Calais said. "Hopefully we can transfer this experience and knowledge to faults in other areas of the world."

Calais, who last visited Haiti a year and half ago, said the level of destruction in the city was not surprising because of poor construction and development on unstable, steep slopes.

"The hotel where I regularly stayed collapsed and there is nothing left," he said. "I'm extremely worried about the people. I've tried to reach friends and colleagues there and am eager to hear from them and learn that they are safe

Writer: Elizabeth Gardner, 765-494-2081, ekgardner@purdue.edu

Media contact: Purdue News Service, 765-494-2096
I apologize I was wrong it seems they have funded global warming skeptics and reportedly continue to do so. I am not disagreeing with climate chance, that ExxonMobil's business practices are quite questionabl, but their production only consists of 3% of the worlds production. So if they were to disappear from the face of the earth, in the long run it wouldn't matter as far as production and emission is concerned.
Pat and co must be happy as a lark right now. Saints are certainly on a role.
Quoting Chicklit:

As far as the teutonic plate shifts go, I would imagine atmospheric temperature change would have an effect on the earth's crust but cannot imagine it going in deeper; of note is the shallowness of this earthquake.
The TEUTONIC plate? The Germans are getting involved? Watch your spelling there! (It's TECTONIC.)
Quoting tornadodude:


Soooo, changing major again? LOL (actually, sounds like it could be a real interesting career to me)
Quoting PcolaDan:


Soooo, changing major again? LOL (actually, sounds like it could be a real interesting career to me)


Actually, I have only changed it once. :P from meteorology to PR
Tectonic. Thank-you Lawrence Welk!
WHOOO DAAATTT!!!!!
Howdy again, I was hoping someone would let us know how the 500 peer reviewed skeptical items were wrong or how the founder of the weather channel was wrong and it ended up my expectation was wrong :)

Saints are kickin it !
Quoting tornadodude:


Actually, I have only changed it once. :P from meteorology to PR


Yea, I knew that. Don't understand changing it from meteorology to Puerto Rico though. ;)
Quoting alaina1085:
WHOOO DAAATTT!!!!!


Looked like the Saints from the early pert of the season. They can win playing like that.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Yea, I knew that. Don't understand changing it from meteorology to Puerto Rico though. ;)


Puerto Rico has better women ;)
Now it's Peyton's turn (another NO connection).
660. JLPR
Quoting tornadodude:


Puerto Rico has better women ;)


You have no idea
Going to college is fun here, its so impressive its ridiculous lol XD
661. JLPR
howdy everyone =D
its been awhile
Quoting JLPR:


You have no idea
Going to college is fun here, its so impressive its ridiculous lol XD


now there is a stanger! how have you been? glad to see you on xD
Rain finally reaching Tampa Bay.. and it's coming down in BUCKETS. But the wind seems to have settled. Glad we are getting this late. At least another Saturday wasn't wasted stuck in the house. And it is SO SO SOOOO nice to be out on the patio. Even my cat is happy to have the doors open!
664. JLPR
Quoting tornadodude:


now there is a stanger! how have you been? glad to see you on xD


Everything going nice...
I just stopped by considering its been awhile since I have been here
Vacations are nice, just sitting around doing nothing most days XD

how about you?
just got feedback from one of my professors about setting something up at Purdue for Portlight, he said he can donate, plus help me get others involved and help me get a donation booth set up
Quoting JLPR:


Everything going nice...
I just stopped by considering its been awhile since I have been here
Vacations are nice, just sitting around doing nothing most days XD

how about you?


haha yeah I bet you are enjoying yourself :P

oh its going, just been cold and snowy, at one point we had 12 inches of snow on the ground with highs in the single digits. Makes walking to class quite miserable
667. JLPR
Quoting tornadodude:


haha yeah I bet you are enjoying yourself :P

oh its going, just been cold and snowy, at one point we had 12 inches of snow on the ground with highs in the single digits. Makes walking to class quite miserable


O_O and here I was complaining about low 70s yesterday lol
yep, actually it gets funny when some guys just cant pretend and looks obvious they are looking XD
Quoting JLPR:


O_O and here I was complaining about low 70s yesterday lol
yep, actually it gets funny when some guys just cant pretend and looks obvious they are looking XD


haha I will take some 70's :) and I can imagine LOL
ok...never in my life did I think I would have to get sand bags while I lived in "Sandy Eggo." That's taken up the majority of the day and forgive me for complaining, but it SUCKED. I am not sure if we did it correctly but I've sandbagged the back of the house b/c the water almost came in the last time it rained (our yard is a cluster-you know what) and if they think for real that we are supposed to get 8 - 20 inches of rain, I thought it would be better to be safe than sorry. I even feel guilty for complaining after watching CNN all day. My life is cake compared to what they're going through.
That squall line is starting to look pretty nasty... Dew points in the mid to upper 60's here in SWFL. It's 76 degrees outside.
WHO DAT?

(sorry, had to say it)

are the pacific storms coming in pretty much following the models, or are they changing things up a bit?
Quoting gregpinehurstnc:
where in the hell is clinton gonna stay?? fly in and out? it seems there are more , freakin , reporters, there than, aid,, thank my self, i did met classes and fewer comm classes


It's a damned shame that the Media is there in such numbers, utilizinfg resources that could really best be used elsewhere, though I will say this: they are doing a fair job, overall, making us all aware of the degree and extent of the devastation and the need for our immediate help.

SECURITY...we need the country to be as secure as possible and this is something our military and the UN's presence needs to assure. It does no good to send in aid if the people it is intended for are pushed aisde and the aid taken by those who don't need it
674. chawk
Raining very hard here in Tarpon Springs. Just read where our Florida airports are getting ready for refugees from Haiti. There is little infrastructure left to support the survivors so they are going to have to leave or become victims of the certain disease outbreak to come soon. I think those of us who have a heart need to think about how we will help Haitian families after they arrive here. The best way to save lives now is to get people out of Haiti until it is inhabitiable again. By the way I'm a conservative, but I'm also an American and Americans do not sit around and watch thousands of people die.
Ok...my dumb question for the day - does 200 knot jet stream mean that it's WAY up there??? Please do not tell me that we're going to have winds that are crazy. Our house really is a piece of junk compared to the last house we had. And does anyone want to tell me how you're supposed to sandbag because I'm not sure if we did it properly.

The first storm will arrive Monday and bring rain... possibly heavy by Monday evening. The snow level will be high Monday... around 7000
feet... so snow will be restricted to resort levels. Strong gusty winds will occur late Monday into Monday night. Subsequent storms
will impact the area Tuesday through Friday and bring more rain... heavy at times.

This all week long event has the potential to generate rainfall of 5 to 8 inches near the coast... and 15 to locally 25 inches on the
coastal mountain slopes
. Even the desert locations are likely to receive between 2 and 4 inches of rain.

The strength of the jet stream driving these storms is over 200 mph and the storms themselves will be moving rapidly onshore in quick succession.

As a result there are likely to be strong winds through much of next week. Over the coastal waters gale force or higher winds are
expected. Over land... damaging winds are likely to precede the arrival of each storm. Wind gusts between 40 and 60 mph are possible
for the coasts and valleys... while the mountains and deserts may have gusts 60 mph or higher.
Quoting Floodman:


It's a damned shame that the Media is there in such numbers, utilizinfg resources that could really best be used elsewhere

Folks in-bound have been told to be completely self-sufficient. Whether they are or not is, of course, a different question
Jet stream roars along high above earth LINK
Quoting melwerle:
Ok...my dumb question for the day - does 200 knot jet stream mean that it's WAY up there???

Yes, 10km altitude plus or minus a few km
some decent winds in the Jax area this evening, barometer dropping...

Quoting transitzone:

Folks in-bound have been told to be completely self-sufficient. Whether they are or not is, of course, a different question

They are self-sufficient for the most part. But one way they are not is with fuel. Fuel cannot be flown in with them, so they ending getting it locally. From where exactly I don't know. Every generator they have uses fuel. Every charter jet they come in on needs fuel, not to mention talking up valuable air and tarmac space. Only real problem I have is with the big networks having so MANY people on the ground. I understand each one (including international) wanting so be there.
675. melwerle
This all week long event has the potential to generate rainfall of 5 to 8 inches near the coast... and 15 to locally 25 inches on the
coastal mountain slopes...


Those coastal mtn slopes are notoriously unstable soils.
Beware mudslides.
I've updated my blog with the latest news of our efforts in Haiti. You can read the update here

LST is running Portlight's social medai efforts and she found this:

BRESMA orphanage

Looks like they're setting up Tampa International for unannounced flights from Hati with refugees. Squall line is getting close.
Quoting PcolaDan:

They are self-sufficient for the most part. But one way they are not is with fuel. Fuel cannot be flown in with them, so they ending getting it locally. From where exactly I don't know. Every generator they have uses fuel. Every charter jet they come in on needs fuel, not to mention talking up valuable air and tarmac space. Only real problem I have is with the big networks having so MANY people on the ground. I understand each one (including international) wanting so be there.


I'm with you; I can understand them wanting to be there and they serve the purpose of keeping this in front of us so that the notoriously forgetful American people are reminded of the great need, but using tarmac space that could be landing or unloading cargo planes is unconscionable...we won't talk about the fuel issue...
charlotte- where'd you get that info
Used to live in Tampa for 4 years, Baynews9.com
ok charlotte, thanks...
My sister forwarded this message yesterday. What is its validity?


----- Forwarded Message ----
From: Earle Jones
To: PVForum@yahoogroups.com; Ladera Issues2 ; Ladera List List ; Ladera Seniors
Sent: Fri, January 15, 2010 3:00:45 PM
Subject: [PVForum] Storms coming!



Folks: Here is an alert that I received through the State Park system yesterday:

***
Update
Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt [this means approximately 230 miles per hour] jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the state.

The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday... This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it’s all said and done.

But there’s a big and rather threatening caveat to that (discussed below).Individual storm events are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically- favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.

This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually unanimous in “reloading” the powerful jet stream and forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it’s worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation will have to monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).

In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it’s not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.

In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole season’s worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned.
***

Here's a picture of what's coming:

http://twitpic. com/y290d/ full

Good luck!

earle
*
____________ _________ ___
Earle Jones 
501 Portola Road #8008
Portola Valley CA 94028
Home: 650-424-4362
Cell: 650-269-0035
earle.jones@ comcast.net
Quoting PcolaDan:

Every charter jet they come in on needs fuel, not to mention talking up valuable air and tarmac space.


A friend with Angel Flight reports they are flying into the airport at Cap Haitien, offloading doctors and supplies, then popping over to Santo Domingo to refuel for the flight back to the mainland
This is in online edition of St Petersburg Times:

TIA may receive Haitian evacuees
By Jessica Vander Velde, Times Staff Writer
Posted: Jan 16, 2010 03:01 PM


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA — Tampa International Airport may receive evacuees from Haiti, and airport officials have held two emergency planning meetings today to discuss how to process evacuees without identification.

They are expecting that some of the evacuees could require medical attention, and some may have friends or relatives in the United State and may need flights to reach them. Others may need a place to stay, a press release from airport spokeswoman Brenda Geoghagan stated.

In Haiti, a huge international relief effort is going on, and as U.S. military aircraft fly people out of Haiti, Florida airports are preparing to process them.

Airport officials anticipate getting only two hours notice before planes arrive.

The agencies involved in planning Tampa's response include airport operations, police, maintenance and support staff; U.S. Customs and Border Protection; Transportation Security Administration; Tampa Fire Rescue and the Florida Division of Emergency Management.

Other agencies that will join include MacDill Air Force Base, air traffic control and other law enforcement agencies.




[Last modified: Jan 16, 2010 03:01 PM]
errr...grtlksquest? maybe you should remove mr jones' phone number form that email...and yes, it's quite valid.
Quoting GrtLksQuest:
My sister forwarded this message yesterday. What is its validity?

Its consistent with a NWS Special Weather Statement this afternoon link
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!!

Still a little glitcy but seeing life from cloudsat..



A saw Windsat became "unreliable" on the 10th & still isn't fixed. May be an interesting season ahead..
Quoting Floodman:
I've updated my blog with the latest news of our efforts in Haiti. You can read the update here

LST is running Portlight's social medai efforts and she found this:

BRESMA orphanage


Thanks for the Portlight update. How amazingly AWESOME that Portlight has already gotten the first round of supplies to its destination in Haiti! Looking forward to the continued updates.

Maddy in ND