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Hagupit Weakens to a Tropical Storm After Killing 21 in the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:35 PM GMT on December 08, 2014

Light to moderate rains are falling in Manila, the capital of the Philippines, as a much-weakened Tropical Storm Hagupit plows west-northwest at 7 mph. Hagupit made landfall in Dolores, Eastern Samar Island, at 9:15 pm local time on Saturday as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, and will finally exit the Philippines on Tuesday morning after dumping widespread rains of 10 - 15" across the Central Philippines. Some 2-day rainfall totals from the storm include 17.06" (433 mm) at Catbalogan and 15.55" (395 mm) at Borongan on Samar Island, and 9.14" (232 mm) on Masbate Island. At least 21 deaths are being blamed on the typhoon so far, but rescue workers have not yet reached remote areas that received heavy damage where the typhoon initially made landfall, on northern Samar Island. Satellite loops show a large but weakening tropical storm, with much reduced heavy thunderstorm activity. Nevertheless, Hagupit is still a very serious heavy rainfall threat. The storm's slow forward speed of 5 - 10 mph through the western Philippines will potentially bring heavy rains of 5 - 10" to Manila, with a population of about 12 million, causing serious flooding. However, it appears that the Philippines have avoided a major catastrophe on the scale of last year's Super Typhoon Haiyan, which left over 7,300 people dead or missing.


Figure 1. Flooding is seen in Barangay Tarabucan, Calbayog City, Samar, Dec. 7, 2014. (Fritz Pedrosa Tamondong/The Calbayog Journal) 


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Hagupit over the Central Philippines at 04:50 UTC on Monday December 8, 2014. At the time, Hagupit had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation from Tropical Storm Hagupit from the 06 UTC Monday run of the GFDL hurricane model. Widespread areas of 8 - 16" (yellow colors) were predicted over the Manila metropolitan area, with some areas of 16+ inches predicted near where the storm makes landfall in Vietnam. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.


Figure 4. Tropical Storm Hagupit over the Philippines as seen at 10 pm EST Sunday December 7, 2014 from the International Space Station. At the time, Hagupit had top winds of 70 mph. Image credit: Terry Virts.

Thanks for giving to Portlight's "Giving Tuesday and Beyond" campaign
Thanks go to everyone in the wunderground community who donated to disaster relief charity Portlight.org's month-long fundraising campaign, "Giving Tuesday and Beyond". Nearly $1,500 was donated, and I will be matching this donation to carry Portlight closer to their ambitious $20,000 fund raising goal for the month.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc..Hagupit was the last thing these folks needed. They were already soaked and not even close to recovering from Haiyan and Ramussun.
Quoting 104. StormTrackerScott:



FSU
UOF is good too....For future Mets anyway...MJO looks like it will peter out before getting here..AO , NAO , Nuthin....Yet....

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Good morning

It's an absolutely beautiful 80, feeling like 83, blue-skied kind of day here on the island today. Three cruise ships in the harbor, none in Crown Bay.

Hope all is well with everyone!

Lindy
@WSI_Energy
Latest Canadian ensembles highlighting possible pattern change in the late 11-15 day period. Would open the arctic up


Quoting 5. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@WSI_Energy
Latest Canadian ensembles highlighting possible pattern change in the late 11-15 day period. Would open the arctic up


That's one hell of a ridge out west. Pretty logical under that pattern.
Quoting 5. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@WSI_Energy
Latest Canadian ensembles highlighting possible pattern change in the late 11-15 day period. Would open the arctic up


That looks familiar. ..CFS has the entire U.S. cooler than normal @ 600...I await a thorough castigation for posting such a long range model...:)

Ocean effect snow...
Quoting 7. hydrus:

That looks familiar. ..CFS puts has the entire U.S. cooler than normal @ 600...I await a thorough castigation for posting such a long range model...:)


Hey, the super duper long range CFS verified pretty nicely for the 500 mb pressure pattern during the summer, when it indicated ridging would develop over the east coast for the peak of hurricane season instead of troughing.

Too lazy to pull up an image, though. But I don't make stuff up all the same. :P

Never know. You just may get lucky enough with a random crapshoot. ;)
Quoting 6. KoritheMan:


That's one hell of a ridge out west. Pretty logical under that pattern.

Yep..Put the sub tropical jet in that trof and there will be an icy mess....This is 180 hrs..

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Thanks Doc!


Are Canadian Ensembles better than the operational model ......


December 09, 2014 rain and snow in the northeast
anyone know what the max storm surges were? I read predictions of up to 15 feet, but that seemed unrealistically high to me.
18. Inyo
Quoting 6. KoritheMan:


That's one hell of a ridge out west. Pretty logical under that pattern.



I like getting cold weather out here in Vermont but unless the subtropical stream undercuts this, really bad news for California. They are finally getting some good storms out there but an interruption in the rainy pattern in the middle of the rainy season would be bad. Even a 'normal' precipitation year won't come close to ending the drought out there, and if El Nino goes away next year may be dry again.
Quoting 18. Inyo:



I like getting cold weather out here in Vermont but unless the subtropical stream undercuts this, really bad news for California. They are finally getting some good storms out there but an interruption in the rainy pattern in the middle of the rainy season would be bad. Even a 'normal' precipitation year won't come close to ending the drought out there, and if El Nino goes away next year may be dry again.
There's typically more cyclonic flow above 500 mb at those latitudes anyway, so I'm not sure how much the subtropical jet could contribute in this case except to maybe even strengthen the ridge.

All speculation, obviously, but theoretical soapboxes are nice. :)
Quoting 103. BaltimoreBrian:

Those sound like reasonable choices, Tyler. What about Texas Tech?

Tech isn't out of the question, but I haven't researched much into them.

Quoting 102. TropicalAnalystwx13:


NCSU. :)

Ha, that's cute, but nice try! My family would have a cow if they thought I was moving to North Carolina for college.

Quoting 109. Drakoen:


I think those two schools are your best options given your location.

I've been told both have very solid programs, and they accomadate my location too.

Thanks for your feedback and I'll be sure to check out the colleges that were suggested.
Quoting 14. VR46L:

Are Canadian Ensembles better than the operational model ......


For forecasts longer than five days, all centers' ensemble suites are better than the deteministic forecast.
Quoting 14. VR46L:

Are Canadian Ensembles better than the operational model ......
The ensembles are usually better for sniffing out nuances in the longer range synoptic longwave pattern that the operationals aren't always readily able to do.

Operationals tend to perform better with individual storm systems.
Quoting 20. TylerStanfield:


Tech isn't out of the question, but I haven't researched much into them.


Ha, that's cute, but nice try! My family would have a cow if they thought I was moving to North Carolina for college.


I've been told both have very solid programs, and they accomadate my location too.

Thanks for your feedback and I'll be sure to check out the colleges that were suggested.


FSU should be your only option. That coming from a Nole fan of course.
Quoting 18. Inyo:



I like getting cold weather out here in Vermont but unless the subtropical stream undercuts this, really bad news for California. They are finally getting some good storms out there but an interruption in the rainy pattern in the middle of the rainy season would be bad. Even a 'normal' precipitation year won't come close to ending the drought out there, and if El Nino goes away next year may be dry again.
Traditional set up for the SoCal Santa Ana winds which kick up and blow everyone's Christmas decorations all over the place.. hopefully only lasting a few days and not a few weeks. Have a great Monday all!


TWC,connect with weather, Our Partners


Portlight Strategies is honored to be a partner with The Weather Channels new program, Connect with Weather. It is a great way to partner our mission to those in times of need. The whole Portlight community is proud as well.

This is your good works and support come to fruition.

Thank you.
ssued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY
Mon, Dec 8, 4:16 am EST
... HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* LOCATIONS... NEW YORK CITY... COASTAL CONNECTICUT... SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER... AND LONG ISLAND.
* HAZARDS... HIGH WINDS.
* WINDS... NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 55 TO 60 MPH.
* TIMING... STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS... DOWNED TREE LIMBS... SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES... AND MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH... OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
ssued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY
Mon, Dec 8, 10:55 am EST
... COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ... COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
* LOCATIONS... LOCATIONS BORDERING WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND FROM NORTHWEST SUFFOLK COUNTY THROUGH QUEENS AND THE BRONX AND OUT THROUGH NEW HAVEN COUNTY.
* TIDAL DEPARTURES... AROUND 1 1/2 FEET TODAY... AND 2-3 FEET ON TUESDAY.
* TIMING... HIGH TIDE CYCLES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS... MINOR FLOODING OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR BASEMENTS DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE OR WAVE SPLASHOVER. MAJORITY OF ROADS REMAIN PASSABLE WITH ONLY ISOLATED CLOSURES. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND ANY IMPACT ON PROPERTY IS MINIMAL.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.
&&
... WESTERN L.I. SOUND WATER LEVELS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...
COASTAL... ... ... ... TIME OF... ... FORECAST TOTAL... ..FLOOD... .. LOCATION... ... ... ..HIGH TIDE... ..WATER LEVEL... ... .CATEGORY.. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..(MLLW)... ... ... ... ... ... ..
KINGS POINT NY... ... 1225 PM... ... ..9.5-10.0... ... ..MINOR... .. GLEN COVE NY... ... ..1203 PM... ... .10.1-10.6... ... ..MINOR... .. STAMFORD CT... ... ... 1209 PM... ... ..9.5-10.0... ... ..MINOR... .. BRIDGEPORT CT... ... .1206 PM... ... ..9.4-10.3... ... ..MINOR... .. NEW HAVEN CT... ... ..1205 PM... ... ..8.6-9.0... ... ... MINOR... ..
... WESTERN L.I. SOUND WATER LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
COASTAL... ... ... ... TIME OF... ... FORECAST TOTAL... ..FLOOD... .. LOCATION... ... ... ..HIGH TIDE... ..WATER LEVEL... ... .CATEGORY.. ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..(MLLW)... ... ... ... ... ... ..
KINGS POINT NY... ... .100 PM... ... ..9.6-10.6... ... ..MODERATE.. GLEN COVE NY... ... ..1238 PM... ... .10.6-11.1... ... ..MINOR... .. STAMFORD CT... ... ... 1252 PM... ... .10.0-10.5... ... ..MINOR... .. BRIDGEPORT CT... ... .1249 PM... ... .10.1-10.6... ... ..MODERATE.. NEW HAVEN CT... ... ..1248 PM... ... ..9.1-9.5... ... ... MODERATE..
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
From a previous blog entry..

Quoting 116. Drakoen:



Indeed. There are many high paying CS jobs and you can get them in an field of study that interests you. It's a shame that their aren't more jobs at that level and that the pay is lackluster (in reference to meteorology).


It isn't all about pay. My first job out of college was as a junior programmer (job was as meteorologist
but programmer is what I really was) at GFDL GS/5 $12K/year in 1982. The pay bothered me a lot because
Central NJ was a wealthy area and in the early 80s, the culture was shifting even more to "money was
everything", and I felt somewhat excluded except for my peers and colleagues who did accept me. I drove an ancient banger of a car,
lived on inexpensive food and did not date at all. However GFDL is absolutely a world class research laboratory and it was a tremendous experience working around world class atmospheric scientists and also looked very good as "previous experience" both when applying to graduate school and in my first job out of grad school (HPC applications specialist for CDC, the NWS' supercomputer vendor of that time.. CDC actually hunted me down at FSU and asked me to do this) By the beginning of the second year at GFDL I was highly respected and it was the actual feeling of thriving that made me think if I didn't go back to grad school soon, I never would and my options would be constrained. Although in the depths of my "I'll never EVER get out of here" blues at grad school I did wonder, I've never since regretted going back and getting the masters, not so much for the doors it opened.. I'm brash enough to get those doors opened anyway, but because once through those doors I could actually take on the challenges and opportunities behind them. In other words I needed the M.S. experience to succeed at the work I wanted to do, which by the way isn't forecasting.. I'm not good enough there.

Most professions have a "dues paying period" at the beginning where the work is hard and the compensation seems poor. You don't realize until later what you got out of that period.

The other piece of career advice I would give is that CS is a great accessory skill. IMHO it's not a great major. People hire computer specialists for what they can do in the hiring organizations field, not just special computer stuff. You're usually better off with a speciality in the hiring organizations field (e.g. NWP or econometrics or financial arbitrage or petroleum engineering or business management) and a very solid working knowledge the computer skills needed in said field.
Any guesses for 2015? I'll write them down and at the end of the 2015 season i'll announce the winner! Write them down like this: TD/TS/H/MH. Mine is 16/15/10/7!
PAGASA barely says this is a tropical storm while it's overland Batangas

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #20
TROPICAL STORM RUBY
11:00 PM PhST December 8 2014
=============================
"Ruby" has further weakened and is now moving across Southern Batangas.

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Ruby (HAGUPIT) [997 hPa] located at 13.7N 121.1E or 45 km south of Ambulong, Tanauan City, Batangas has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gustiness up to 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #2
Residents in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Batangas
2. Northern Oriental Mindoro
3. Northern Occidental Mindoro
4 .Lubang Island.

Signal Warning #1
These areas will have occasional rains with occasional gusty winds.

Luzon Region
-------------
1. Metro Manila
2. Bulacan
3. Rizal
4. Bataan
5. Cavite
6. Laguna
7. Southern Quezon
8. the rest of Mindoro Provinces
9. Marinduque

Additional Information
======================
Expected out of landmass: Tomorrow early morning.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5–15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical storm.

TS "RUBY" and the Northeast Monsoon will cause rough to very rough sea conditions over the seaboards of Luzon. Fisher folks and those using small sea craft are advised not to venture out over the said seaboards.

Expected to Exit PAR: Wednesday evening.

Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere has been lifted.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Thanks Jeff...
Southeast Michigan has asked for nearly $230 million so far in federal assistance from the flooding last August.

Those applying for Federal Emergency Management Agency assistance have until Sunday to register. Those applying for U.S. Small Business Administration assistance have until Dec. 15 to register. Disaster funds will be available beyond those dates, however.


Major floods swamp Michigan in August, 2014.
(Joshua Lott, 2014 Getty Images)
This is the 3hr rain rates.. Seems to have picked up heavy in the SE Luzon area.


That one area in the middle of AU, though a little lighter now has been getting pounded for two days.
Quoting 30. HadesGodWyvern:

PAGASA barely says this is a tropical storm while it's overland Batangas


By Advanced Dvorak Technique Hagupit weakened all the way to Tropical Depression strength before beginning to pull it back together.

Quoting 28. georgevandenberghe:

From a previous blog entry..



It isn't all about pay. My first job out of college was as a junior programmer (job was as meteorologist
but programmer is what I really was) at GFDL GS/5 $12K/year in 1982. The pay bothered me a lot because
Central NJ was a wealthy area and in the early 80s, the culture was shifting even more to "money was
everything", and I felt somewhat excluded except for my peers and colleagues who did accept me. I drove an ancient banger of a car,
lived on inexpensive food and did not date at all. However GFDL is absolutely a world class research laboratory and it was a tremendous experience working around world class atmospheric scientists and also looked very good as "previous experience" both when applying to graduate school and in my first job out of grad school (HPC applications specialist for CDC, the NWS' supercomputer vendor of that time.. CDC actually hunted me down at FSU and asked me to do this) By the beginning of the second year at GFDL I was highly respected and it was the actual feeling of thriving that made me think if I didn't go back to grad school soon, I never would and my options would be constrained. Although in the depths of my "I'll never EVER get out of here" blues at grad school I did wonder, I've never regretted going back and getting the masters, not so much for the doors it opened.. I'm brash enough to get those doors opened anyway, but because once through those doors I could actually take on the challenges and opportunities behind them. In other words I needed the M.S. experience to succeed at the work I wanted to do, which by the way isn't forecasting.. I'm not good enough there.

Most professions have a "dues paying period" at the beginning where the work is hard and the compensation seems poor. You don't realize until later what you got out of that period.

The other piece of career advice I would give is that CS is a great accessory skill. IMHO it's not a great major. People hire computer specialists for what they can do in the hiring organizations field, not just special computer stuff. You're usually better off with a speciality in the hiring organizations field (e.g. NWP or econometrics or financial arbitrage or petroleum engineering or business management) and a very solid working knowledge the computer skills needed in said field.



As it should have bothered you. After adjusting for inflation (a little over 29k/yr), that's a terrible salary for a programming job regardless of whatever perks you get from working at the company. The national average for an entry level programmer ranges from 55k-65k/yr. They probably kept the job title as meteorologist to keep the pay down. The notion that CS is not a great major is completely unfounded. It's one of the booming majors in the U.S. as there are many jobs available.


The volunteers assisted the Municipal government today and went to four evacuation centres and provided 740 families with relief packages of rice and canned goods. The volunteers have been praised throughout the city for their passion and dedication in rapidly helping #Tacloban City after #typhoon #Hagupit.


All Hands Volunteer's

OSI SAF now has Rapidscat:


Quoting 5. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@WSI_Energy
Latest Canadian ensembles highlighting possible pattern change in the late 11-15 day period. Would open the arctic up




ECMWF ENS is not impressed. Much less amplified and those anomalously higher heights around the Hudson Bay region don't bode well for Christmas. We'll see.



Quoting 5. TropicalAnalystwx13:
@WSI_Energy
Latest Canadian ensembles highlighting possible pattern change in the late 11-15 day period. Would open the arctic up



I am not a fan of this at all. This is the pattern that's caused our drought here on the West Coast. Really hoping that doesn't verify.
Thanks for the Update, Dr. Masters....
Quoting 40. TimSoCal:



I am not a fan of this at all. This is the pattern that's caused our drought here on the West Coast. Really hoping that doesn't verify.


I'll second that.
Quoting 29. vongfong2014:

Any guesses for 2015? I'll write them down and at the end of the 2015 season i'll announce the winner! Write them down like this: TD/TS/H/MH. Mine is 16/15/10/7!

Lol. Is this for real? Anyone's predictions a year in advance are about as good as their chances winning the lottery. And in addition to the very large uncertainty with what the ENSO will end up doing, I won't even dare make a prediction until probably April of next year. (I usually have a long range seasonal outlook posted in December, with Preseason predictions posted in February ahead of most agencies that forecast.) But I have come to realize over the years that there's not much worth in trying to forecast extended long range forecast in which your data is on unstable ground and subject to change drastically in that time frame.
I feel so empty inside.
I haven't looked at a single model run in over a month. Not even to just check for my own weather. I seriously can't wait for Finals to be over with.


Nice strong zonal Trans Pacific jet aimed at the West Coast. Plenty of moisture feeding into it for our storm Wed night-Thursday.
Quoting 40. TimSoCal:



I am not a fan of this at all. This is the pattern that's caused our drought here on the West Coast. Really hoping that doesn't verify.


Major difference is the abnormally warm SSTs off the West Coast. No sign of ridging in the Pacific. Much more likely that if one were to develop, it will be undercut by the jet.
Quoting Drakoen:


ECMWF ENS is not impressed. Much less amplified and those anomalously higher heights around the Hudson Bay region don't bode well for Christmas. We'll see.



One thing to keep in mind when reading anything from WSI is that they are not an unbiased player in this game. They provide a lot of weather forecasts to businesses, particularly to oil and natural gas companies. As you might imagine, those businesses profit when the US is having or is expected to have cold winter weather. I'm not saying we should disregard their forecasts, but we should be careful when they start using a model like the CMC to hype what may (or may not) be an outbreak of cold weather, especially when the ECMWF and GFS don't agree.
Quoting TylerStanfield:
I feel so empty inside.
I haven't looked at a single model run in over a month. Not even to just check for my own weather. I seriously can't wait for Finals to be over with.
LOL. Don't worry, you feel just as empty inside if you did spend the last month looking at models. :-)
Quoting 26. hurricanes2018:

ssued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY
Mon, Dec 8, 4:16 am EST
... HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* LOCATIONS... NEW YORK CITY... COASTAL CONNECTICUT... SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER... AND LONG ISLAND.
* HAZARDS... HIGH WINDS.
* WINDS... NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 55 TO 60 MPH.
* TIMING... STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.
* IMPACTS... DOWNED TREE LIMBS... SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES... AND MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH... OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.



Quoting vongfong2014:
Any guesses for 2015? I'll write them down and at the end of the 2015 season i'll announce the winner! Write them down like this: TD/TS/H/MH. Mine is 16/15/10/7!
We already have another blogger (MaxWeather) that has been taking everyone's guesses and collating them for a "winner" at the end of the season. We generally think guesses about the 2015 season in December of 2014 are pretty worthless, in addition to the problem of trying to muscle in on someone else's established territory.
Local mets in Tampa have been way off the mark lately. 10% chance of rain today, yet there has been a light sprinkle since about 7 AM. We've seen dome downpours over the past 2-3 days and the rain chance has not been more than 10%.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
OSI SAF now has Rapidscat:


This is a dumb question, but why does the rapidscan scatterometer not pick up the storm circulation over land? Is it only set to look at circulation over water?
In its 4 a.m. EST bulletin, the U.S. military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) now estimates maximum sustained winds with Tropical Storm Hagupit of about 60 mph (one-minute average). It has been steadily weakening, having had winds of 100 mph Saturday night and 125 mph Saturday morning (U.S. time).

The Japan Meteorological Agency also downgraded Hagupit to a tropical storm, estimating its maximum 10-minute-average wind speed at 60 mph as of 4 a.m. EST Monday.

As of 4 p.m. Philippines time Monday (3 a.m. EST in the U.S.), PAGASA said the center of Tropical Storm Hagupit (Ruby) was located about 15 km (9 miles) southeast of Laiya in Batangas province. The slow-moving storm is moving to the west-northwest at about 8 mph.
Quoting MAstu:
anyone know what the max storm surges were? I read predictions of up to 15 feet, but that seemed unrealistically high to me.
From what I've seen so far, the maximum reported surge in Samar was about five feet. The few scattered reports from other areas suggest two to three feet. Maybe Pascal can chime in here with what he knows since he actually lives on Samar. It does appear that pressures rose and wind speeds dropped just before landfall, with pressures rising very rapidly over the past 36 hours as wind speeds dropped to less than 30 knots. That pattern generally limits storm surge.
Quoting 33. Skyepony:

This is the 3hr rain rates.. Seems to have picked up heavy in the SE Luzon area.


That one area in the middle of AU, though a little lighter now has been getting pounded for two days.


I'm curious how these rain rate products are derived. I know that its through remote sensing of course, but my curiosity is how come they max rain rate is only 1 inch per hour on that scale? Is it just simply average rainfall that has estimated to fall during an actual time scale of 1 hour, or is it instantaneous rainfall rate?

The reason I wonder is that if it was instantaneous rainfall rate, a max of only 1 is way too low, rainfall rates in convection in tropical air masses even in weak convection usually exceeds 1 inch per hour.

Unless of course its understood that resolution isn't high enough to pick up and intense precip. rates in convective cores.

My guess is that it's estimated observed precip. over the past hr like the standard 1hr rainfall on radar shows, not instantaneous rainfall rate. Even still though, that seems too low, when NWS radars have max 1 hr rain total estimates of 8 inches.
Quoting 6. KoritheMan:


That's one hell of a ridge out west. Pretty logical under that pattern.



If the ridge ends up being that amplified on the West Coast its going to get bitterly cold all the way to the Gulf Coast and Florida, that's no joke.

Absolutely stellar forecast for the Tampa Bay area this week, anyone who thinks Tampa has endless summer obviously just hears rumors from word of mouth. Florida does get a real fall and winter, its just comfortably cooler than the warm season, instead of uncomfortably cold like up north. Who wouldn't want a week of weather like this:

Quoting hydrus:
Once again, Alabama is left high and dry on the seven day precipitation outlook. Rats! It's 50 degrees here after an overnight low of 46, about 10 degrees warmer than what was forecast. The Georgia Wedge is here in full force, with chilly east winds of 10 mph gusting to 13, just enough to maintain the lows clouds and make it feel chillier than 50. A shortwave should shuffle through later today, which should terminate the Wedge for now and give us sunny but cool temperatures after. Another shortwave moves through Wednesday with a reinforcing shot of cool air, which should give me lows in the high 20's Thursday and Friday...but no rain. After that, the weather should be near climatology until about Monday or Tuesday, when a forecast deep low should develop in the Plains and move east.

The flow around the low should pump up some moist, warm, and unstable air from the Gulf, with highs reaching into the 70's by Tuesday. This is the kind of pattern that can lead to an outbreak of severe storms in the deep South. So far this year, this pattern hasn't held, and we've had very little in the way of severe weather. We shall see if our normal December-January secondary severe weather season reasserts itself this time, but it's something to keep an eye on if you live in Dixie Alley.
Highway 12 closed south of Oregon Inlet today due to overwash and sand.
Nino 3.4 cooled down at the CPC weekly update.Read the update at my ENSO Blog .
Quoting Jedkins01:


I'm curious how these rain rate products are derived. I know that its through remote sensing of course, but my curiosity is how come they max rain rate is only 1 inch per hour on that scale? Is it just simply average rainfall that has estimated to fall during an actual time scale of 1 hour, or is it instantaneous rainfall rate?

The reason I wonder is that if it was instantaneous rainfall rate, a max of only 1 is way too low, rainfall rates in convection in tropical air masses even in weak convection usually exceeds 1 inch per hour.

Unless of course its understood that resolution isn't high enough to pick up and intense precip. rates in convective cores.

My guess is that it's estimated observed precip. over the past hr like the standard 1hr rainfall on radar shows, not instantaneous rainfall rate. Even still though, that seems too low, when NWS radars have max 1 hr rain total estimates of 8 inches.
I believe that's the 3 hour rain totals, with the rainfall rate back calculated to fit the 3 hour totals. If that's the case, it would smooth out the very high short period rainfall rates typically seen with tropical systems, so a one inch maximum is likely the highest we'd ever see. The other thing to keep in mind is that the TRMM satellite is out of fuel and the angle of incidence is getting smaller as the satellite descends, which is leading to increasingly unreliable data. The satellite will reenter the atmosphere sometime in February, and we lose yet another tropical storm forecasting tool.
Quoting sar2401:
We already have another blogger (MaxWeather) that has been taking everyone's guesses and collating them for a "winner" at the end of the season. We generally think guesses about the 2015 season in December of 2014 are pretty worthless, in addition to the problem of trying to muscle in on someone else's established territory.
I don't think taking guesses on the upcoming hurricane season is any more "someone else's established territory" than is posting TWOs, or 168-hour model runs, or radar loops, or pretty much anything else people here do repeatedly and with great gusto. With that in mind, then, I see no problem in two (or even more) people compiling guesses both educated and otherwise. However, having said all that, I agree that it's several months too early to start doing so. So much may and will change between now and June that making a prediction now would be pretty foolhardy...
Quoting 58. Jedkins01:


Absolutely stellar forecast for the Tampa Bay area this week, anyone who thinks Tampa has endless summer obviously just hears rumors from word of mouth. Florida does get a real fall and winter, its just comfortably cooler than the warm season, instead of uncomfortably cold like up north. Who wouldn't want a week of weather like this:




They blew today's forecast. 61 in Clw right now and we have had drizzle and light right the entire day. Miserable day today.

Quoting Gearsts:

It's terrible when Mother Nature just won't act the way forecasters think it should act. :-) As long as the convection in the central Pacific remains low, the Walker Circulation is not going to weaken, and we're not going to see an "official" El Nino. I've been saying for awhile that we already have a "stealth" El Nino, we just don't have all the pieces of what science assumes are needed to make it official.
2018. This is the next image I am going to post. In order to save you time, you can copy this instead of looking it up for your next post.







Quoting 50. hurricanes2018:





Winter Storm Damon
Our budding system



Quoting luvtogolf:


They blew today's forecast. 61 in Clw right now and we have had drizzle and light right the entire day. Miserable day today.

There's a low off the coast that's causing the circulation to pick up moisture from the Atlantic, with just enough lift over land to give you some drizzle and light rain. It's also reinforcing the Georgia Wedge over me, giving me the same gloomy weather, but without enough lift to squeeze out any moisture. At least your miserable day has a purpose in terms of giving you some small amounts of rain. The low moves north tomorrow and will morph into the deep coastal on Wednesday that will give the Northeast fits. It should clear out for us and leave sunny but relatively cool, although not unseasonable, weather for the rest of the week. Not bad overall really compared to some Arctic blast, a giant ice storm, or a tornado outbreak, all of which may be in play next week.
Quoting Grothar:
2018. This is the next image I am going to post. In order to save you time, you can copy this instead of looking it up for your next post.







LOL. You are such an accommodating guy. :-)
Winter Storm Damon: Northeast

Still a few uncertainties for Winter Storm Damon that should produce a significant snow from the eastern Great Lakes through Interior New England Tuesday into Thursday.

Cold air (to keep precipitation all snow) is at a premium with this storm. East Coast cities will see rain/wind Tuesday. Interior cities in the Northeast at lower elevations (PA/NY/western New England) will see snow mixing with or changing to rain at times Tuesday to Wednesday. Rain/mix turn back to all snow by late Tuesday night and continuing Wednesday night.

Tricky situation with marginal cold air, some dynamics, slow movement, etc. So, it won't be snowing continuously and heavier precipitation could come in intermittent "spurts". For cities in the interior Northeast, snow will fall with temps in the low to mid 30s and could mix with rain at times (especially Tuesday) so getting around shouldn't be too difficult.

Looks like the highest snowfall totals will be from west central/central NY down to the southern Tier and to the Catskills, as well as higher elevations of western/northern New England. The highest elevations could see 1 to 2 feet of snow while lower elevations in the maximum snow zone should stay below a foot for the event. Heavy rain/coastal flooding and local flooding plus strong wind gusts closer to the East Coast from northern New Jersey to Massachusetts Tuesday and into Tuesday night for MA.
Quoting 53. sar2401:

This is a dumb question, but why does the rapidscan scatterometer not pick up the storm circulation over land? Is it only set to look at circulation over water?


Yes, only over water:

"SeaWinds on board QuikSCAT is an active microwave pencil-beam scanning
radar (scatterometer), operating at 13.4 GHz (Ku band),
that estimates 10-m wind speed and direction by measuring
the return of backscatter due to centimeter-scale
capillary waves on the ocean surface and assuming a
neutral stability profile to adjust the wind to the standard
10-m height"

From
Quoting sar2401:
There's a low off the coast that's causing the circulation to pick up moisture from the Atlantic, with just enough lift over land to give you some drizzle and light rain. It's also reinforcing the Georgia Wedge over me, giving me the same gloomy weather, but without enough lift to squeeze out any moisture. At least your miserable day has a purpose in terms of giving you some small amounts of rain. The low moves north tomorrow and will morph into the deep coastal on Wednesday that will give the Northeast fits. It should clear out for us and leave sunny but relatively cool, although not unseasonable, weather for the rest of the week. Not bad overall really compared to some Arctic blast, a giant ice storm, or a tornado outbreak, all of which may be in play next week.


We had some drizzle yesterday. Today the weather is great with lots of sun and temps in the 70s.

New delay to the GFS upgrade. The new date is January 14. Is the third time they change the date.
The National Climatic Data Center has released their statistics for last month. November 2014 featured an average temperature of 39.33F, the 16th coolest on record for the lower 48 going back to 1895. Only 1 state, California, was in the top-10 warmest for November, while numerous states were in the top-10 coldest category for November.

Quoting 79. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The National Climatic Data Center has released their statistics for last month. November 2014 featured an average temperature of 39.33F, the 16th coolest on record for the lower 48 going back to 1895. Only 1 state, California, was in the top-10 warmest for November, while numerous states were in the top-10 coldest category for November.




How do we know the thermometers weren't placed in front of refrigerators?
co2now.org

397.13ppm

Atmospheric CO2 for November 2014

Preliminary monthly average as of December 5, 2014
(Mauna Loa Observatory: NOAA-ESRL)




December should prove to be warmer than average for most of the U.S.(even with the cool air this week across the east and southeast U.S.)

A nice warm pattern is already setting up across the Southern Plains into the Great Plains. This weekend, the warm air will start to shift over to the eastern half of the U.S.

This warmer than average pattern could last up until Christmas for a large part of the U.S.
Quoting 80. Grothar:



How do we know the thermometers weren't placed in front of refrigerators?

That's classified information.
Quoting 83. Sfloridacat5:

December should prove to be warmer than average for most of the U.S.(even with the cool air this week across the east and southeast U.S.)

A nice warm pattern is already setting up across the Southern Plains into the Great Plains. This weekend, the warm air will start to shift over to the eastern half of the U.S.

This warmer than average pattern could last up until Christmas for a large part of the U.S.


Looking that way unless we get a deep freeze the last 10 days.
Quoting 80. Grothar:



How do we know the thermometers weren't placed in front of refrigerators?
There were graphs pine cones with berber tails , and threes rebounded with moderate fur plus brick apple parking falls.and bucket....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The National Climatic Data Center has released their statistics for last month. November 2014 featured an average temperature of 39.33F, the 16th coolest on record for the lower 48 going back to 1895. Only 1 state, California, was in the top-10 warmest for November, while numerous states were in the top-10 coldest category for November.

Yes, and that would include Alabama. I can testify to the fact it was cold down here. Interestingly, the data confirms your previous estimate of how cold November would be was almost exactly correct, even without every single bit of data you'd need to be 100% scientifically accurate, and all...
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Yes, only over water:

"SeaWinds on board QuikSCAT is an active microwave pencil-beam scanning
radar (scatterometer), operating at 13.4 GHz (Ku band),
that estimates 10-m wind speed and direction by measuring
the return of backscatter due to centimeter-scale
capillary waves on the ocean surface and assuming a
neutral stability profile to adjust the wind to the standard
10-m height"

From
Thanks. That's what I assumed to be the case, but my obviously faulty search using Google didn't turn up the answer.
Quoting 61. Gearsts:



How about ESPI? After that day long reprieve from it's long fall it's down more to -0.58. SOI is beginning to follow it's trend.


Wave/980 mb low will form on strong cold front near Cape Mendocino. Note the strong northwest flow from the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska which will be traversing abnormally mild SSTs, picking up moisture and instability.
Quoting 87. sar2401:

Yes, and that would include Alabama. I can testify to the fact it was cold down here. Interestingly, the data confirms your previous estimate of how cold November would be was almost exactly correct, even without every single bit of data you'd need to be 100% scientifically accurate, and all...


Florida is somewhat misleading here because the northern half of Florida, where I am, got nailed with record breaking cold air more than once including a few lows in the low 20's. During the same period, South Florida stayed in the 70's for highs and 60's for lows even behind the front. So I would say that South Florida saw near average temps while the northern half of Florida probably was closer to the top 10 coldest.

And your state got the 2nd coldest on record, the doesn't come around very often!
Quoting 85. luvtogolf:



Looking that way unless we get a deep freeze the last 10 days.


Yep models seem to be trending towards an insanely sharp west coast ridge again, similar to what brought insanely cold temps from Michigan to Florida in November. Only if these model trends continue, the same pattern would bring that much colder air into the area since we will be heading into winter with daylight hours/total solar heating reaching the minimum.
Quoting 65. luvtogolf:



They blew today's forecast. 61 in Clw right now and we have had drizzle and light right the entire day. Miserable day today.




Yes these inversion drizzle/sprinkles events can be tough to forecast. You guys are well below average and so are we, we're only in the low 50's here, and we were supposed to originally have a high around 60.
If you are bored you can track the Winter Recon Mission (Google Earth)
Its amazing how much different the weather can be across the Florida, Here's Tallahassee, Tampa and West Palm Beach. Looks like 3 different states:


Light Rain Fog/Mist

50F

10C

Humidity86%
Wind SpeedN 6 mph
Barometer30.18 in (1021.8 mb)
Dewpoint46F (8C)
Visibility2.00 mi
Wind Chill48F (9C)

Last Update on 8 Dec 2:53 pm EST

Current conditions at

Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.4N Lon: 84.35W Elev: 69ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather



Light Drizzle Fog/Mist

63F

17C

Humidity90%
Wind SpeedN 9 mph
Barometer30.06 in (1017.8 mb)
Dewpoint60F (16C)
Visibility1.50 mi

Last Update on 8 Dec 2:53 pm EST

Current conditions at

Tampa International Airport (KTPA)

Lat: 27.97N Lon: 82.53W Elev: 10ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather



Partly Cloudy

76F

24C

Humidity62%
Wind SpeedVrbl 3 mph
Barometer29.98 in (1015.3 mb)
Dewpoint62F (17C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index78F (26C)

Last Update on 8 Dec 2:53 pm EST

Current conditions at

West Palm Beach, Palm Beach International Airport (KPBI)

Lat: 26.68N Lon: 80.12W Elev: 20ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather
Quoting 56. Jedkins01:



I'm curious how these rain rate products are derived. I know that its through remote sensing of course, but my curiosity is how come they max rain rate is only 1 inch per hour on that scale? Is it just simply average rainfall that has estimated to fall during an actual time scale of 1 hour, or is it instantaneous rainfall rate?

The reason I wonder is that if it was instantaneous rainfall rate, a max of only 1 is way too low, rainfall rates in convection in tropical air masses even in weak convection usually exceeds 1 inch per hour.

Unless of course its understood that resolution isn't high enough to pick up and intense precip. rates in convective cores.

My guess is that it's estimated observed precip. over the past hr like the standard 1hr rainfall on radar shows, not instantaneous rainfall rate. Even still though, that seems too low, when NWS radars have max 1 hr rain total estimates of 8 inches.


These were originally derived from the TRMM satellite. I've read generally they are using GPM now mostly as the TRMM data products have been being upgraded or fed that since TRMM is now tragically, slowly (for now) falling out of the sky. GPM is joint with JAPAN, note the new up close movie for Japan on the bottom of that TRMM page..

The three hour one is rain rates..3hrs of data averaged into inches & mm per hour, the week long one is rain totals for the week. You've got a point about resolution & too the thick white outline of every island in The Philippines whites out the data there to some extent. Looking at it now the the heavier rain it had east of Luzon has died down. Convection on IR is diminished as well..

Back to GPM... The data is now available to the public but not in a readable finished form yet. I've started going through it, learning about it, signed up for data & such. With some time I might be able to come up with some thing like the old trmm passes in near real time on storms. Starting to get info though..they are still really in the finishing touches/testing phase. This was in my mail today..

GPM Deep Space Calibration Manuevers
------------------------------------
On December 8, 2014 and December 10, 2014 the GPM MOC will conduct deep space
calibrations maneuvers that will assist in physically verifying GMI calibration
changes and also help in further characterization of the GMI instrument
itself.

During both days the GPM Near-realtime (NRT) subystem will not be producing
any NRT products during the period of the maneuvers.

The NRT server "jsimpson" will remain up and accessible. However, no new
GPM data will be available on the server until GPM resumes science
operations.

On December 8 the NRT will not be getting new data beginning at 20:37 UTC and
data will remain off until appoximately 05:00UTC December 9, 2014.

On December 10, the maneuver is scheduled to begin at 12UTC and the NRT will
again be turned off. It will remain off until approximately 22 UTC. More
exact times will be provided the day before the maneuver.
Quoting 61. Gearsts:





Do you not like El Nino, or are you sad that it's not plunging further?
Causes and Predictability of the 2011-14 California Drought

How severe has the California Drought been?

California statewide precipitation during the last three winters (November-April 2011/2012 through 2013/2014) ranked the second lowest since official measurements began in 1895. Only the consecutive three-year period of 1974/1975 through 1976/1977 was drier. As one critical indication of the cumulative and growing impact of this drought, the September 2014 assessment of statewide water storage was only about 50% of average for this time of year, according to the California Department of Water Resources. Water supply depletion has not resulted from the lack of precipitation alone, but also from very high temperatures with the 2013/2014 winter being the state's warmest on record.

What factors caused the California Drought?

* Weather conditions were key to explaining the event - a high pressure ridge off the West Coast diverted the track of storms during all three winters, typical of historical droughts.
* West Coast high pressure was rendered more likely during 2011-14 by effects of sea surface temperature patterns over the world oceans.
* The drought's first year (2011/2012) was likely the most predictable, when La Nina effects largely explained high pressure off the West Coast, though simulations indicate that high pressure continued to be favored due to ocean effects in 2012-14.

Is the California Drought a symptom of long term climate change?

The current drought is not part of a long-term change in California precipitation, which exhibits no appreciable trend since 1895. Key oceanic features that caused precipitation inhibiting atmospheric ridging off the West Coast during 2011-14 were symptomatic of natural internal atmosphere-ocean variability.

Model simulations indicate that human-induced climate change increases California precipitation in mid-winter, with a low-pressure circulation anomaly over the North Pacific, opposite to conditions of the last 3 winters. The same model simulations indicate a decrease in spring precipitation over California. However, precipitation deficits observed during the past three years are an order of magnitude greater than the model simulated changes related to human-induced forcing. Nonetheless, record setting high temperature that accompanied this recent drought was likely made more extreme due to human-induced global warming.

Link
Quoting 96. Skyepony:



These were originally derived from the TRMM satellite. I've read generally they are using GPM now mostly as the TRMM data products have been being upgraded or fed that since TRMM is now tragically, slowly (for now) falling out of the sky. GPM is joint with JAPAN, note the new up close movie for Japan on the bottom of that TRMM page..

The three hour one is rain rates..3hrs of data averaged into inches & mm per hour, the week long one is rain totals for the week. You've got a point about resolution & too the thick white outline of every island in The Philippines whites out the data there to some extent. Looking at it now the the heavier rain it had east of Luzon has died down. Convection on IR is diminished as well..

Back to GPM... The data is now available to the public but not in a readable finished form yet. I've started going through it, learning about it, signed up for data & such. With some time I might be able to come up with some thing like the old trmm passes in near real time on storms. Starting to get info though..they are still really in the finishing touches/testing phase. This was in my mail today..

GPM Deep Space Calibration Manuevers
------------------------------------
On December 8, 2014 and December 10, 2014 the GPM MOC will conduct deep space
calibrations maneuvers that will assist in physically verifying GMI calibration
changes and also help in further characterization of the GMI instrument
itself.

During both days the GPM Near-realtime (NRT) subystem will not be producing
any NRT products during the period of the maneuvers.

The NRT server "jsimpson" will remain up and accessible. However, no new
GPM data will be available on the server until GPM resumes science
operations.

On December 8 the NRT will not be getting new data beginning at 20:37 UTC and
data will remain off until appoximately 05:00UTC December 9, 2014.

On December 10, the maneuver is scheduled to begin at 12UTC and the NRT will
again be turned off. It will remain off until approximately 22 UTC. More
exact times will be provided the day before the maneuver.



Oh ok, makes sense. Man, I didn't realize the TRMM is falling out of sync. I don't see why we don't do some counter measure mission to stop it. The TRMM is a valuable piece of equipment, it would be a shame if it gets pulled to the surface and fails, and it would be shame if its not prevented from doing so.

Then again, the NWS and NASA don't get nearly enough funding.
Quoting 80. Grothar:



How do we know the thermometers weren't placed in front of refrigerators?


The temperature in front of my refrigerator averaged 67 degrees this month. Outdoors in my garden 46F.
My kids did not leave the door open and the occasional cold events in front of the door were brief and
did not significantly affect the average.

Quoting 86. hydrus:

There were graphs pine cones with berber tails , and threes rebounded with moderate fur plus brick apple parking falls.and bucket....


Just what was in your fridge?
Quoting 99. Jedkins01:



Oh ok, makes sense. Man, I didn't realize the TRMM is falling out of sync. I don't see why we don't do some counter measure mission to stop it. The TRMM is a valuable piece of equipment, it would be a shame if it gets pulled to the surface and fails, and it would be shame if its not prevented from doing so.

Then again, the NWS and NASA don't get nearly enough funding.


TRMM ran out of fuel to boost it's altitude in July. It was only built to last three years and has been in service like 17years. I'd love to see them send spaceX or something to refuel it but the resolution of GPM is so much better. It should still be sending data til maybe 2016. They plan to turn it completely off before it re-enters sometime maybe that year. The data has degraded some already. Those sweet animated TRMM passes of storms ended in Oct.
Is it possible to get the high and low temp avg on the forecast on the main page? Thanks!
104. flsky
The majority of damage in the Detroit area was caused by local governments adjusting pumping stations so that freeways would drain and be usable again. The damage in homes was caused by sewage backup into basements because of the adjustment. Those who didn't receive aid from FEMA (and FEMA cannot pay for all damages), should have been recompensed by the government agencies that caused the problem.

Quoting 32. Skyepony:

Southeast Michigan has asked for nearly $230 million so far in federal assistance from the flooding last August.

Those applying for Federal Emergency Management Agency assistance have until Sunday to register. Those applying for U.S. Small Business Administration assistance have until Dec. 15 to register. Disaster funds will be available beyond those dates, however.


Major floods swamp Michigan in August, 2014.
(Joshua Lott, 2014 Getty Images)
Quoting 60. wxgeek723:

Highway 12 closed south of Oregon Inlet today due to overwash and sand.


Where's Pedley tonight? Having a mud bath?
What gives with this? This is a double bum deal if you think about it.

Fuel to the fire? Fuel exports soar under Obama

GARDI SUGDUP, Panama (AP) — As the Obama administration makes headway at home in the fight against global warming, it has helped stoke record exports of fossil fuels that are contributing to rising levels of pollution elsewhere.

U.S. exports of diesel and gasoline have doubled since President Barack Obama took office, and the carbon embedded in them has meet political goals by taking it off America's pollution balance sheet. But that does not necessarily help the planet.



update at 4pm on on December 08, 2014
The Spill at Dan River

Lesley Stahl reports on how Duke Energy is handling over 100 million tons of coal ash waste in North Carolina

The following is a script from "The Spill at Dan River" which aired on Dec. 7, 2014. Lesley Stahl is the correspondent. Shachar Bar-On, producer.

Every year coal-burning power plants generate not only electricity, but a staggering amount of leftover coal ash that contains heavy metals unhealthy to humans. Yet due in part to intense industry lobbying, there are no federal regulations on its disposal. It's left to the states to oversee some of the most powerful utility companies in the country.

(approximately 100 million tons to be contained)

This really is worth watching.

Link
Dan River Spill







cooldogs13 set up a forecast competition for the NE storm this week..
Quoting 106. CycloneOz:

What gives with this? This is a double bum deal if you think about it.

Fuel to the fire? Fuel exports soar under Obama

GARDI SUGDUP, Panama (AP) — As the Obama administration makes headway at home in the fight against global warming, it has helped stoke record exports of fossil fuels that are contributing to rising levels of pollution elsewhere.

U.S. exports of diesel and gasoline have doubled since President Barack Obama took office, and the carbon embedded in them has meet political goals by taking it off America's pollution balance sheet. But that does not necessarily help the planet.

It's because Pres. Obama is still married to fossil fuel interests. But I'm afraid we've seen nothing yet: the internet is full of stories today of how heavy-polluting the Koch Brothers have become a de facto political party. (Example.).

It's sad, really. The Anaconda just keeps squeezing--only this time, the anaconda is our own blind, stupid greed...


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This is your good works and support come to fruition.

Thank you Dr. Masters and all who help support and carry out the Portlight Mission Statement.


We're making progress here with the Matching donation challenge: Portlight's "Giving Tuesday and Beyond" campaign



114. DDR
Quoting Jedkins01:

Absolutely stellar forecast for the Tampa Bay area this week, anyone who thinks Tampa has endless summer obviously just hears rumors from word of mouth. Florida does get a real fall and winter, its just comfortably cooler than the warm season, instead of uncomfortably cold like up north. Who wouldn't want a week of weather like this:


I'm sorry Jedkins but im where im from any temperature reading under 73f is freezing to me :)
Quoting 114. DDR:


I'm sorry Jedkins but im where im from any temperature reading under 73f is freezing to me :)
yes i'll second that..been dreary drizzley kind of day and cold,tomorrow per nws says it will continue, haven't seen the sun here in 2 days,solid overcast..and getting colder outside now.
Quoting 105. PlazaRed:


Where's Pedley tonight? Having a mud bath?
Different coast -- he's on the Left, this is on the Outer Banks on the Right.
Quoting LargoFl:
yes i'll second that..been dreary drizzley kind of day and cold,tomorrow per nws says it will continue, haven't seen the sun here in 2 days,solid overcast..and getting colder outside now.


Beautiful day down here today. Bright sunshine with highs in the 70s.
Southern half of the state had the sun today.

My goal is to make it through the week without turning on the heat.
Right now I've got the front door open with a nice breeze blowing through the house.
7 day for Fort Myers
120. wxmod
It's springtime in the Cascade Mountains. New leaves everywhere. Never seen this before!



keep eye on this radar tonight i am starting to see some rain!!
Quoting Jedkins01:


Florida is somewhat misleading here because the northern half of Florida, where I am, got nailed with record breaking cold air more than once including a few lows in the low 20's. During the same period, South Florida stayed in the 70's for highs and 60's for lows even behind the front. So I would say that South Florida saw near average temps while the northern half of Florida probably was closer to the top 10 coldest.

And your state got the 2nd coldest on record, the doesn't come around very often!
Yes, and it's a rather dubious honor. Reaching 17 degrees for the low in November already had me shivering for the rest of the season...then it turned to summer again...but now it's back to winter again. We touched 51 degrees for about 10 minutes before plunging back into the 40's. It's 46 now and feels like 26. This whole roller coaster thing with weather and pressure changes the past month has my arthritis in an uproar. Just wait, my young friend...:-)
Quoting BayFog:


Wave/980 mb low will form on strong cold front near Cape Mendocino. Note the strong northwest flow from the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska which will be traversing abnormally mild SSTs, picking up moisture and instability.
Lows off Cape Mendocino were always the sign of trouble. I don't know what it is about that region of the coast, but every large storm seemed to center on a low off Cape Mendocino. Time to tie everything loose down and get out the hip waders.
Check out this forecast for the coast of Washington State.
Also, Seattle has rain in their forecast for the next 7 days in a row.

Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 nm
Marine Zone Forecast
For More Weather Information:
Seattle, WA Local Forecast Office
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...



SynopsisA FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 968 MB LOW WELL OFFSHORE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUE. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL ARRIVE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A 975 TO 985 MB LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON THU WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING ON FRI.

Tonight S wind rising to 35 to 45 kt with frequent gusts to 55 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft with a dominant period of 13 seconds...building to 19 to 21 ft with a dominant period of 13 seconds after midnight. Rain.

Tue S wind 35 to 45 kt with frequent gusts to 55 kt...becoming SW 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 to 23 ft with a dominant period of 13 seconds. Rain.

Tue Night S wind 20 to 25 kt...becoming SE 20 to 30 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft...building to 6 to 8 ft after midnight. W swell 16 ft at 14 seconds. A chance of rain in the evening...then rain after midnight.

Wed S wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 24 ft with a dominant period of 15 seconds.
Wed Night S wind 20 to 25 kt...becoming SE 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 5 ft...subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. W swell 17 ft at 14 seconds.

Thu NE wind 10 to 20 kt...becoming SW 25 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft...building to 6 to 8 ft in the afternoon. W swell 16 ft at 14 seconds.

Thu Night SW wind 25 to 30 kt...becoming S 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 6 to 8 ft...subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight. W swell 14 ft at 14 seconds.

Fri SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 11 ft.

Sat SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 11 ft... Subsiding to 9 ft.
Quoting Grothar:
Dan River Spill







That is the biggest mobile crane I've ever seen. I wonder what they are doing with it?
Just starting to get wrapped up early Wednesday morning.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Check out this forecast for the coast of Washington State.
Also, Seattle has rain in their forecast for the next 7 days in a row.

Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 nm
Marine Zone Forecast
For More Weather Information:
Seattle, WA Local Forecast Office
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...



SynopsisA FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 968 MB LOW WELL OFFSHORE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUE. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL ARRIVE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A 975 TO 985 MB LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON THU WITH WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING ON FRI.

Tonight S wind rising to 35 to 45 kt with frequent gusts to 55 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft with a dominant period of 13 seconds...building to 19 to 21 ft with a dominant period of 13 seconds after midnight. Rain.

Tue S wind 35 to 45 kt with frequent gusts to 55 kt...becoming SW 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 20 to 23 ft with a dominant period of 13 seconds. Rain.

Tue Night S wind 20 to 25 kt...becoming SE 20 to 30 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft...building to 6 to 8 ft after midnight. W swell 16 ft at 14 seconds. A chance of rain in the evening...then rain after midnight.

Wed S wind 40 to 50 kt. Seas 21 to 24 ft with a dominant period of 15 seconds.
Wed Night S wind 20 to 25 kt...becoming SE 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 5 ft...subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight. W swell 17 ft at 14 seconds.

Thu NE wind 10 to 20 kt...becoming SW 25 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft...building to 6 to 8 ft in the afternoon. W swell 16 ft at 14 seconds.

Thu Night SW wind 25 to 30 kt...becoming S 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 6 to 8 ft...subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight. W swell 14 ft at 14 seconds.

Fri SE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 11 ft.

Sat SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 11 ft... Subsiding to 9 ft.
That's one reason you don't see many sailboats out this time of year. That's the offshore forecast, so it won't be quite as windy in Seattle proper, but still windy enough. The November through January of 2003-2004 were some of the worst months of my life, and the weather didn't help any. I think we saw the sun twice, and there was never a sunny day. Most of the time it just drizzled, and the wind never stopped, driving that humid, mid-40's air right through you no matter what you did to keep it out. People tell me Seattle is a great place to live, and it probably is OK in the summer. Fall and winter is another story. I will say the cold damp air we're in now with this Georgia Wedge is a close second for miserable, but at least this will go away and the sun will come out again...in less than two months.
Quoting 126. sar2401:

That is the biggest mobile crane I've ever seen. I wonder what they are doing with it?


Too Little, Too Late....

76.1F today, low was 56.9F
Quoting 114. DDR:


I'm sorry Jedkins but im where im from any temperature reading under 73f is freezing to me :)


You have 73. I have 37. Trade??


looking at another inch of cold cold rain tonight and tomorrow.
Quoting 132. georgevandenberghe:



You have 73. I have 37. Trade??


looking at another inch of cold cold rain tonight and tomorrow.


Too Bad it isn't that easy, I have heat and need rain....
Hagupit death toll is up to 27. Sanitary issues are becoming a concern with 900,000 crammed in shelters.
Pambujan, Northern Samar Storm Surge | Typhoon Hagupit
Quoting 120. wxmod:

It's springtime in the Cascade Mountains. New leaves everywhere. Never seen this before!




All my spring wildflowers are already sprouting here in the SF Bay Area. This is much earlier than normal. They'll grow slow thru the dimmer winter light, then take off as it comes back. The trees are very happy as water tables are starting to recover while temps have stayed unusually mild with frost a virtual impossibility this year with SSTs still hovering around 61 F.
It's been raining like melted soft fine snow since the middle of the night, nearly constantly, in Melbourne, FL. I've finally accumulated 1/2 inch.
Quoting 132. georgevandenberghe:



You have 73. I have 37. Trade??


looking at another inch of cold cold rain tonight and tomorrow.
What a waste of a storm
Quoting 138. washingtonian115:

What a waste of a storm

Lots of umbrellas tomorrow morning.
Quoting 120. wxmod:

It's springtime in the Cascade Mountains. New leaves everywhere. Never seen this before!



Saw a peach tree in bloom in my neighborhood in Burien today
Quoting 119. Sfloridacat5:

My goal is to make it through the week without turning on the heat.
Right now I've got the front door open with a nice breeze blowing through the house.
7 day for Fort Myers



Have screen doors open also. Have to love it down here in West Palm!





Truenergy Holdings Pty’s Yallourn coal-fired power station stands in the distance behind a disused coal dredger in the town centre in Morwell, Australia. Photograph: Carla Gottgens/Getty Images

Australia named worst-performing industrial country on climate change

Performance index released at Lima climate talks puts Denmark in the best-performing slot, followed by Sweden and Britain

Australia has been named the worst-performing industrial country in the world on climate change in a report released at international negotiations in Peru.

The climate change performance index ranked Denmark as the best-performing country in the world, followed by Sweden and Britain.

Among the world’s top 10 emitters, Germany was ranked the highest at 22. Australia was second bottom overall, above Saudi Arabia – which was not classified as industrial.

The report states: “The new conservative Australian government has apparently made good on last year’s announcement and reversed the climate policies previously in effect. As a result, the country lost a further 21 positions in the policy evaluation compared to last year, thus replacing Canada as the worst-performing industrial country.”

China, the world’s biggest emitter, was in 45th spot – one below the US, which is the world’s second largest emitter of greenhouse gases that cause climate change.

But in an indication of the challenge facing governments to increase their ambition, the report said if every country in the world performed as well as the highest-ranking countries global temperatures would still likely rise more than 2C – a level considered to be dangerous.

For that reason the top three places in the ranking were left blank.

The CCPI report, produced by the thinktank Germanwatch and Climate Action Network Europe, covers the top 58 emitters of greenhouse gases in the world and about 90% of all energy-related emissions.

Jan Burck, report author at Germanwatch, told the Guardian: “It is interesting that the bottom six countries in the ranking – Russia, Iran, Canada, Kazakhstan, Australia and Saudi Arabia – all have a lot of fossil fuel resources. It is a curse.

“The fossil fuel lobbies in the countries are strong. In Australia they stopped what were some very good carbon laws.

The report was released within the confines of the UN climate talks in Lima at the start of the second week of negotiations.

The talks are aiming to establish the draft text of a new international climate change agreement to be signed by all countries at the next major talks in Paris in late 2015.

The index covers the performance of countries across five areas – the level of emissions, the trends in emissions, energy efficiency, renewable energy policies and the approach to climate change at national and international levels.

Denmark was becoming a model country, Burck said, with the report praising the country’s “ambitious renewable energy and emissions reduction policies”.

The report said Denmark “sets an example in how industrialised countries can not only promise, but also implement effective climate policies”.

Erwin Jackson, of the Australian charity the Climate Institute, told the Guardian: “Australia has been heading backwards by undertaking actions such as attempting to kneecap the renewable energy industry through regressive policy changes.

“We also should be playing our fair part in global action, not trying to free ride on the actions of others.”

He said Australia was “increasingly unprepared” for an emerging global shift to clean energy.

Last month a UN environment programme report named Australia alongside Canada, the US and Mexico as the only countries that were likely to miss their current 2020 targets to cut emissions.

The 2014 Emissions Gap report said the scrapping of Australia’s carbon price meant the country was “no longer on track” to meet its target to cut emissions by 5% by 2020.
Quoting 143. GeoffreyWPB:



Have screen doors open also. Have to love it down here in West Palm!




No Heat used here yet either, was 76.1 here today.
46/55 today and cloudy with a light north breeze. The humidity stayed below 75% today so the chill was not as penetrating as it could have been.
movin and shakin
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Our budding system


I wish that would keep heading WSW to me!
Will yin and yang meet over Greenland?
Video of Hagupit's storm surge in Leyte and Eastern Samar.

Some of the reports I've seen say surge was 5-6 meters (15-20 feet) in this area. Witnesses reported the surge was definitely much lower than the large 25-30 foot surge Haiyan lashed the coast with just over a year ago.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Too Little, Too Late....
I watched that interview. I used to own stock in Duke. The more I read about the company, the more nervous I got. Duke has gone from a utility to a financial holding company, and their maintenance of all their fly ash storage facilities has gone from bad to worse. Their inability to manage risk by spending a small amount of money to fix a collapsing diversion pipe now has them in a position of spending many times more to respond to an environmental emergency. This is not the first time with Duke. In addition to the cost to ratepayers, I really thought all this was going to affect their share performance. I sold it last January at $68 for a small profit. It closed today at about $81. Apparently, you can be a big-time serial polluter with hundreds of millions of tons of hazardous waste hanging over your head and I'm the only investor who felt that might be bad for business. Shows you how much I know about things.
152. vis0

Quoting 86. hydrus:

There were graphs pine cones with berber tails , and threes rebounded with moderate fur plus brick apple parking falls.and bucket....
i could sue for plagiarism** but i won't.

**(copied my "Galacsic" science explanations, as to some ...okay to most looks just like what hydrus wrote )
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:


I wish that would keep heading WSW to me!
Me too, but we get to sit this one out. Surprisingly, the Georgia Wedge has already lost its grip on me and skies have cleared. My pinpoint forecast from the NWS is for a low of 34. It's 37 right now. I think that forecast might be a little off, so I've had to haul all the sensitive plants in again. It looks like I'll end up in the 20's Thursday and Friday morning so they will have to stay in at least that long. I remember entire winters where the plants didn't need to be hauled in or I maybe had to do it once in the dead of winter. This is the second time this season and it's only early December. This whole climate change thing is not working out to my satisfaction. :-)
20-26 ft seas with 15 sec period heading for Florida from the NE. Most significant wave event of the year beyond anything the tropics could muster for the 2014 season.
Anywhere from South Beach north to Little Talbot island will be realllly fun with predominantly W to NW offshore winds keeping it clean.
My 2 top pics would be Reef Road in Palm Beach or RC's in Satellite. Possibly even South beach for a bit.
This is a once in 3-5 year swell event on average for its size, duration and favorable winds.
Elbow Cay in Abaco should see triple overhead surf starting tomorrow. Worth a peak at barometer bobs rocky bay cam tomorrow. Link

Link swellinfo

Link Buoy 41002 off S.C.
Quoting vis0:

i could sue for plagiarism** but i won't.

**(copied my "Galacsic" science explanations, as to some ...okay to most looks just like what hydrus wrote )
LOL. Vis, you may be slightly loony but you've still got a good sense of humor. I see your piece about galacsics has showed up at Answers.com. I put in a vote that your answer was "useful"...:-)
The jet stream is on roids this week; 250mb winds are racing up to 235kt on either side of North America.

Quoting Abacosurf:
20-26 ft seas with 15 sec period heading for Florida from the NE. Most significant wave event of the year beyond anything the tropics could muster for the 2014 season.
Anywhere from South Beach north to Little Talbot island will be realllly fun with predominantly W to NW offshore winds keeping it clean.
My 2 top pics would be Reef Road in Palm Beach or RC's in Satellite. Possibly even South beach for a bit.
This is a once in 3-5 year swell event on average for its size, duration and favorable winds.
Elbow Cay in Abaco should see triple overhead surf starting tomorrow. Worth a peak at barometer bobs rocky bay cam tomorrow. Link

Link swellinfo

Link Buoy 41002 off S.C.

so what day should I call out . TUES or WED.?
Nor'easter has begun in the Mid Atlantic. I'm a little concerned, coastal flooding was already ominous today the day before the storm. Tomorrow's high tide will be worse.


I have a feeling we may see our highest tides since Hurricane Sandy.
And the warnings and watches go out in advance of the storm... The last time I saw any mention of landslides was back in March... and well, that ended tragically... Here's hoping to stable slopes!

A brief selection of excerpts for Seattle:

Coastal Flood Advisory:
* IMPACTS...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS THAT THE EFFECT OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.
* TIME OF HIGH TIDE...AT SEATTLE...722 AM PST. AT PORT TOWNSEND...714 AM PST. AT CHERRY POINT...806 AM PST. AT FRIDAY HARBOR...758 AM PST.
* PREDICTED TIDE...AT SEATTLE...13.6 FEET. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BEGINS AT 13.5 FEET. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE LEVELS JUST ABOVE WHAT CAUSES MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW.

Special Weather Statement:
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 9 TO 13 INCHES IN THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 6 INCHES ELSEWHERE IS EXPECTED DURING THE TWO AND HALF DAY PERIOD ENDING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL PUT EXTRA PRESSURE ON SOIL INSTABILITY... LEADING TO AN INCREASED RISK OF LANDSLIDES.

WITH AN ELEVATED LANDSLIDE RISK...RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE DURING BURSTS OF INTENSE RAINFALL OR WHEN THERE IS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PERIOD OF A DAY OR TWO. A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING RISK OF LANDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO LANDSLIDES ARE STEEP COASTAL BLUFFS AND OTHER STEEP HILLSIDES.

Hydrologic Outlook:
...FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN KING AND THURSTON COUNTIES THIS WEEK...

A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE AIMED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE STRONG SOUTHERLY DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN KING AND THURSTON COUNTIES DUE TO LACK OF UPSLOPE FLOW. AMOUNTS DURING THE TWO DAY PERIOD ENDING 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE...WHICH IS NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE RIVER FLOODING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD END UP BEING HIGHER THAN FORECAST...AND IF THE FLOW DEVELOPS A WESTERLY COMPONENT... THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS WOULD INCREASE. ALSO... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
Quoting 160. Seattleite:

And the warnings and watches go out in advance of the storm... The last time I saw any mention of landslides was back in March... and well, that ended tragically... Here's hoping to stable slopes!

A brief selection of excerpts for Seattle:

Coastal Flood Advisory:
* IMPACTS...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS THAT THE EFFECT OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.
* TIME OF HIGH TIDE...AT SEATTLE...722 AM PST. AT PORT TOWNSEND...714 AM PST. AT CHERRY POINT...806 AM PST. AT FRIDAY HARBOR...758 AM PST.
* PREDICTED TIDE...AT SEATTLE...13.6 FEET. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BEGINS AT 13.5 FEET. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE LEVELS JUST ABOVE WHAT CAUSES MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW.

Special Weather Statement:
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 9 TO 13 INCHES IN THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 6 INCHES ELSEWHERE IS EXPECTED DURING THE TWO AND HALF DAY PERIOD ENDING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL PUT EXTRA PRESSURE ON SOIL INSTABILITY... LEADING TO AN INCREASED RISK OF LANDSLIDES.

WITH AN ELEVATED LANDSLIDE RISK...RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE DURING BURSTS OF INTENSE RAINFALL OR WHEN THERE IS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PERIOD OF A DAY OR TWO. A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING RISK OF LANDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO LANDSLIDES ARE STEEP COASTAL BLUFFS AND OTHER STEEP HILLSIDES.

Hydrologic Outlook:
...FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN KING AND THURSTON COUNTIES THIS WEEK...

A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE AIMED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE STRONG SOUTHERLY DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN KING AND THURSTON COUNTIES DUE TO LACK OF UPSLOPE FLOW. AMOUNTS DURING THE TWO DAY PERIOD ENDING 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE...WHICH IS NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE RIVER FLOODING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD END UP BEING HIGHER THAN FORECAST...AND IF THE FLOW DEVELOPS A WESTERLY COMPONENT... THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS WOULD INCREASE. ALSO... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.



That's some serious rainfall, but its well needed though, sometimes the bad side of all the rain is worth it, at least rain brings life overall more than it takes away.

Sometimes I forget how impressive rainfall can be up there, especially in the highlands closer to the coast. I think weather events in the Pacific Northwest get overlooked a lot of times.
I just looked and what happened between posts from 10:15 to 11:16 PM????

The low is supposed to turn to the west as it nears the New Jersey coast. Not expected to intensify that much, but the winds should be quite heavy

Quoting 160. Seattleite:

And the warnings and watches go out in advance of the storm... The last time I saw any mention of landslides was back in March... and well, that ended tragically... Here's hoping to stable slopes!

A brief selection of excerpts for Seattle:

Coastal Flood Advisory:
* IMPACTS...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS THAT THE EFFECT OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.
* TIME OF HIGH TIDE...AT SEATTLE...722 AM PST. AT PORT TOWNSEND...714 AM PST. AT CHERRY POINT...806 AM PST. AT FRIDAY HARBOR...758 AM PST.
* PREDICTED TIDE...AT SEATTLE...13.6 FEET. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW BEGINS AT 13.5 FEET. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE LEVELS JUST ABOVE WHAT CAUSES MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW.

Special Weather Statement:
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 9 TO 13 INCHES IN THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH CASCADES WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 6 INCHES ELSEWHERE IS EXPECTED DURING THE TWO AND HALF DAY PERIOD ENDING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL PUT EXTRA PRESSURE ON SOIL INSTABILITY... LEADING TO AN INCREASED RISK OF LANDSLIDES.

WITH AN ELEVATED LANDSLIDE RISK...RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE DURING BURSTS OF INTENSE RAINFALL OR WHEN THERE IS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A PERIOD OF A DAY OR TWO. A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING RISK OF LANDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO LANDSLIDES ARE STEEP COASTAL BLUFFS AND OTHER STEEP HILLSIDES.

Hydrologic Outlook:
...FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN KING AND THURSTON COUNTIES THIS WEEK...

A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE AIMED AT WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE STRONG SOUTHERLY DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN KING AND THURSTON COUNTIES DUE TO LACK OF UPSLOPE FLOW. AMOUNTS DURING THE TWO DAY PERIOD ENDING 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE...WHICH IS NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE RIVER FLOODING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD END UP BEING HIGHER THAN FORECAST...AND IF THE FLOW DEVELOPS A WESTERLY COMPONENT... THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS WOULD INCREASE. ALSO... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO MINOR URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.



Stay dry Sea!

Quoting 151. sar2401:

I watched that interview. I used to own stock in Duke. The more I read about the company, the more nervous I got. Duke has gone from a utility to a financial holding company, and their maintenance of all their fly ash storage facilities has gone from bad to worse. Their inability to manage risk by spending a small amount of money to fix a collapsing diversion pipe now has them in a position of spending many times more to respond to an environmental emergency. This is not the first time with Duke. In addition to the cost to ratepayers, I really thought all this was going to affect their share performance. I sold it last January at $68 for a small profit. It closed today at about $81. Apparently, you can be a big-time serial polluter with hundreds of millions of tons of hazardous waste hanging over your head and I'm the only investor who felt that might be bad for business. Shows you how much I know about things.


The worst part is Duke keeps expanding, the company is a Carolina power company, but now has spread all the way into much of Florida as well

Quoting 161. Jedkins01:



That's some serious rainfall, but its well needed though, sometimes the bad side of all the rain is worth it, at least rain brings life overall more than it takes away.

Sometimes I forget how impressive rainfall can be up there, especially in the highlands closer to the coast. I think weather events in the Pacific Northwest get overlooked a lot of times.
The higher elevations also frequently have prolific wind events with hurricane-force winds. Or in Kori lingo, it's something I'd enjoy.
Quoting 161. Jedkins01:



That's some serious rainfall, but its well needed though, sometimes the bad side of all the rain is worth it, at least rain brings life overall more than it takes away.

Sometimes I forget how impressive rainfall can be up there, especially in the highlands closer to the coast. I think weather events in the Pacific Northwest get overlooked a lot of times.


The wind watches and warnings won't be posted until Wednesday depending on the ultimate track of the low. We have had quite a dry summer/fall period. Honestly, we've seen the sun far too many times this year! I'm glad it's time for rain coats, and rain boots. Also, to laugh at the tourists chasing their umbrellas.

Quoting 163. Grothar:



Stay dry Sea!




I'll be plenty dry, although my job requires driving to various job sites with minor loading/unloading of instruments. So I'm not exactly looking forward to work on Wednesday...
Is it bad that tracking the weather occasionally makes me anxious? I always get a little uneasy when I feel like a major event is going to happen, when I feel like I'm watching the extremely unfortunate future of our climate unfold, and when I feel like people are in danger or scared for their lives.

Sometimes it seems like I'm some kind of sponge that sucks in all the negative energy while everyone else is care-free.

Quoting 167. wxgeek723:

Sometimes it seems like I'm some kind of sponge that sucks in all the negative energy while everyone else is care-free.
You do seem to worry more than other people do, but compassion in itself isn't a bad thing.
The gentle melted snowing continues unabated..miserable out there.
Quoting Jedkins01:


The worst part is Duke keeps expanding, the company is a Carolina power company, but now has spread all the way into much of Florida as well
Duke is everywhere, from the Carolinas down into Florida, up to Indiana and Ohio, and down to Panama and South America. They are even getting their fingers into wind and solar. Duke and Southern Companies basically own the South. At one time, they at least had competent thieves that ran the company. They have all died or left, and the current CEO is about the bottom of the barrel when it comes to competent. I don't know if she's actually a thief though. :-)
Quoting Grothar:
I just looked and what happened between posts from 10:15 to 11:16 PM????
I took everyone else out for a late snack. I called but Mrs. Grothar said you were asleep and to stop bothering you.
Quoting wxgeek723:
Is it bad that tracking the weather occasionally makes me anxious? I always get a little uneasy when I feel like a major event is going to happen, when I feel like I'm watching the extremely unfortunate future of our climate unfold, and when I feel like people are in danger or scared for their lives.

Sometimes it seems like I'm some kind of sponge that sucks in all the negative energy while everyone else is care-free.
Don't talk like that when you're interviewing for a met position. :-)

Yeah, I think it's pretty normal to feel a little anxious when there's a big weather event of some kind and you're just an observer. The thing is that it's going to happen anyway, regardless of how much you obsess over it or wish it was different. As Kori said, it's also part of normal human compassion. Nothing wrong with that as long as it doesn't lead to a stomach ulcer.

As far as the sponge thing, well, that's on you. You can choose to be, or not to be, a sponge.
Quoting 172. sar2401:

Don't talk like that when you're interviewing for a met position. :-)

Yeah, I think it's pretty normal to feel a little anxious when there's a big weather event of some kind and you're just an observer. The thing is that it's going to happen anyway, regardless of how much you obsess over it or wish it was different. As Kori said, it's also part of normal human compassion. Nothing wrong with that as long as it doesn't lead to a stomach ulcer.

As far as the sponge thing, well, that's on you. You can choose to be, or not to be, a sponge.
I don't take an indifferent attitude because I don't care. I take an indifferent attitude for exactly what YOU just said.

Did worrying change the same area of the Philippines getting ravaged by several typhoons in two years? It's just a consequence of where people live.

Besides, we're the ones that populated the planet. Nature doesn't just stop.

But I want to say that again: compassion isn't bad. Even if you show it more than most people do, who cares exactly? Be yourself. I usually don't get emotional because I honestly don't lose sleep over random strangers in the path of extreme weather. I've donated to disaster relief and stuff before and I'll do so again, but losing sleep is kinda a strong response, and one I can't have for people I'm indifferent to. I don't think compassion and taking up that mentality are mutually exclusive, though.

In the end, I've improved my life a lot over the past year, and especially the last several months. I have several people to thank for that, including Nathan and another good friend in Arizona that doesn't post here. They were compassionate and patient when I was neither. It kind of opened my eyes. Obviously you can do it how you want, but in my opinion compassion is better served on individuals rather than large groups of people you don't know so well.

Quoting 172. sar2401:


As far as the sponge thing, well, that's on you. You can choose to be, or not to be, a sponge.
Also, this. How many times during our friendship did I tell you this, Trent? The choice is yours.
'Ruby' crushes 13,000 homes, affects 2M people
By Erik de Castro, Reuters, Posted at 12/09/2014 11:42 AM | Updated as of 12/09/2014 11:42 AM
DOLORES, Philippines - Tropical depression Ruby weakened further on Tuesday as the storm crawled across the central Philippines, while rescue workers struggled in its aftermath to reach towns in central provinces where thousands of homes were wrecked.
Nearly 13,000 houses were crushed and more than 22,300 were partially damaged in Eastern Samar province, where Ruby (international name Hagupit) first hit land as a category 3 typhoon on Saturday, local officials said.
"Access is very difficult, roads are spotty. There are landslides, some are one-lane roads. In the inner barangays (villages), many of them are washed out by flash floods," Richard Gordon, chairman of the Philippine Red Cross, told Reuters.
The typhoon weakened to a tropical depression on Tuesday with maximum winds of 60 kph (37 mph) near its center, as it made a fifth landfall over the Lubang islands, 150 km (93 miles) southwest of capital Manila. It is now moving west towards the South China Sea at 13 kph (8 mph).
More than 2 million people so far have felt the impact of Hagupit, which is Filipino for lash, with nearly 1.7 million fleeing to relatives' homes on safer ground or packing in to evacuation centers across the central Philippines and south of the main Luzon island, the national disaster agency said.
The 27 people reported killed died in Iloilo province and on Samar island, including 12 residents in Borongan town in Eastern Samar who were swept away by raging waters and flash floods, the Red Cross's Gordon said, citing initial reports from his field staff. ...


------------------------------------------

Some maps from the strong northern atlantic storm, named "Alexandra" by the Institute in Berlin; you can clearly see the long sharp cold front associated with this system:






Windmap British Isles for tomorrow.

Storm will bring 70ft waves and icy weather to coasts
Greg Harkin and Sam Griffin, Irish Independent, Published 09/12/2014 | 02:30
RECORD waves could hit the west coast of Ireland over the next 48 hours as an Atlantic storm hits.
Met Eireann has issued a weather warning forecasting wind gusts of up to 110kmh between today and midnight tomorrow.
The gigantic north Atlantic storm will see Hawaiian-sized waves crashing off the west and north-west coasts.
But big wave surfers say they will have to miss the best storm ever, because the wind will be blowing in the 'wrong' direction.
Meanwhile, as the storm hits the west, Leinster will enjoy unseasonably warm weather today before temperatures dramatically plunge by 12C.
The capital and nearby counties could enjoy temperatures as high as 12C today, but they will plummet as low as 5C tomorrow and then close to zero overnight later this week. ...


BTW today very strong winds in the western Mediterranean as well!


Current IR loop Europe with the ferocious Mediterranean cyclone at the bottom.

Have a good morning everyone. Unfortunately I currently don't have much time for weather ...
The stock market has almost no connection with reality. It is a rigged game in which you may or may not get lucky. It is way overdue for a major correction. Reality always wins. Right now it is in some fantasy land. So don't beat yourself up ☺

Weather in SC has been lousy. Clouds, rain, cool for the last 3 days. I predict we will see a brief warm up before winter makes a harsh appearance in 10-14 days. I'm calling a white Christmas here.

Surf up on the coast this morning. Wrightsville looks good. I just started a project in Columbia so all I can do is dream (and check the cams).Link

Quoting 151. sar2401:

I watched that interview. I used to own stock in Duke. The more I read about the company, the more nervous I got. Duke has gone from a utility to a financial holding company, and their maintenance of all their fly ash storage facilities has gone from bad to worse. Their inability to manage risk by spending a small amount of money to fix a collapsing diversion pipe now has them in a position of spending many times more to respond to an environmental emergency. This is not the first time with Duke. In addition to the cost to ratepayers, I really thought all this was going to affect their share performance. I sold it last January at $68 for a small profit. It closed today at about $81. Apparently, you can be a big-time serial polluter with hundreds of millions of tons of hazardous waste hanging over your head and I'm the only investor who felt that might be bad for business. Shows you how much I know about things.


wow look at all that rain moving up the coast
Momentary pause in weather discussion... here are some thoughts from an individual American investor.

Quoting 176. HaoleboySurfEC:

The stock market has almost no connection with reality.


Partially agreed. I would say that the stock market overreacts irrationally to what reality dictates, and that it enjoys, more than all else, certainty.

It is a rigged game in which you may or may not get lucky.


It always astounded me how often I hear this sentiment. I suppose it's a "rigged" game for those who don't know how to play it.

It is way overdue for a major correction.


The "correction" that occurred during the fall was less than 10%, which is typically the threshold for a healthy correction in a long term bull market, so I am in agreement there. But again, the market likes certainty, which the current economy has a lot of. Lowering unemployment, rising job growth, generally lowering commodity prices, stable bond market, and historically low interest rates are the recipe for stock market growth, regardless of individual company performances.

Anyway, back to some weather stuff. The daily commute into NYC during this Nor'easter event this morning took only 15-20 minutes longer than usual, which in my eyes, is a win. I was expecting highway flooding, moronic drivers, and an easy extra 30 minutes commute. I suppose it's still early though. Flooding is being reported in New Jersey and on the Belt Parkway.
180. vis0
Quoting 156. sar2401:

LOL. Vis, you may be slightly loony but you've still got a good sense of humor. I see your piece about galacsics has showed up at Answers.com. I put in a vote that your answer was "useful"...:-)

If you like the CLUEs in this comment save it, as its on "postimg free"
therefore its removed as it becomes inactive.   A real oops...meant trial,peace


Still completely overcast in Tampa. We've gone about 4 days without seeing the sun, yet this shows dry air in place. Whatever pattern this is, it has completely baffled the local mets. 10% chance of rain yesterday, and I picked up 0.20 inches at the house. They were also saying the clouds would break up by 3:00 yesterday afternoon, and we're still under gloomy, overcast skies. Weird weird situation.
Quoting 177. hurricanes2018:



wow look at all that rain moving up the coast
flooding rain coming soon
183. MahFL
Quoting 181. tampabaymatt:

..yet this shows dry air in place...


That's because it's upper air moisture :
"This imagery represents a special kind of infrared measurement which measures the temperature of clouds and water vapor in a layer of the atmosphere about 6-10 km above the surface."
Quoting 183. MahFL:



That's because it's upper air moisture :
"This imagery represents a special kind of infrared measurement which measures the temperature of clouds and water vapor in a layer of the atmosphere about 6-10 km above the surface."


Thanks, I appreciate the info.
warning watch out for some t.storm later if you live in new haven to boston!!
Wind Advisory
Statement as of 3:50 AM EST on December 09, 2014
...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 8 am this morning to 5 PM EST this afternoon...

* locations...southeastern coastal Connecticut and Suffolk County Long Island. Highest winds are expected along the immediate coast.

* Hazards...strong winds.

* Winds...northeast 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Highest winds are expected along the immediate coast.

* Timing...strongest winds are expected through early afternoon.

* Impacts...localized power outages from downed tree limbs are possible...possible damage to Holiday decorations.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph... or gusts of 46 to 57 mph...are expected or occurring. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Still completely overcast in Tampa. We've gone about 4 days without seeing the sun, yet this shows dry air in place. Whatever pattern this is, it has completely baffled the local mets. 10% chance of rain yesterday, and I picked up 0.20 inches at the house. They were also saying the clouds would break up by 3:00 yesterday afternoon, and we're still under gloomy, overcast skies. Weird weird situation.


On visible satellite it looks like most of the low clouds have pushed down over southern Florida.
You guys should see plenty of sun this afternoon (if not sooner) as high pressure and drier air at the lower levels moves into your area.

It might be later in the day by the time our skies clear down here in Fort Myers.
Currently we've got drizzle and 56 degrees.
Skies are clearing across the northern half of Florida.
Still a lot of low clouds across southern Fl.

Quoting 165. KoritheMan:


The higher elevations also frequently have prolific wind events with hurricane-force winds. Or in Kori lingo, it's something I'd enjoy.



We've got 70+ mph gust potential here. Today's going to be a battening down day, this time I'm going to use a spare carabinier to clip the shed doors shut, _and_ pound in steel garden stakes to bolt it to.

Might do the same with my trailer, just to slow down the rocking effect. That's why I'm glad it's a daytime storm, I hate waking up to that feeling.

You're welcome to come out and help. :) The winds here can get crazy. Glad we finished hog butchering a couple days ago.
Quoting 175. barbamz:

(Post snipped to European storm only)

Some maps from the strong northern atlantic storm, named "Alexandra" by the Institute in Berlin; you can clearly see the long sharp cold front associated with this system:






Windmap British Isles for tomorrow.

Storm will bring 70ft waves and icy weather to coasts
Greg Harkin and Sam Griffin, Irish Independent, Published 09/12/2014 | 02:30
RECORD waves could hit the west coast of Ireland over the next 48 hours as an Atlantic storm hits.
Met Eireann has issued a weather warning forecasting wind gusts of up to 110kmh between today and midnight tomorrow.
The gigantic north Atlantic storm will see Hawaiian-sized waves crashing off the west and north-west coasts.
But big wave surfers say they will have to miss the best storm ever, because the wind will be blowing in the 'wrong' direction.
Meanwhile, as the storm hits the west, Leinster will enjoy unseasonably warm weather today before temperatures dramatically plunge by 12C.
The capital and nearby counties could enjoy temperatures as high as 12C today, but they will plummet as low as 5C tomorrow and then close to zero overnight later this week. ...


BTW today very strong winds in the western Mediterranean as well!


Current IR loop Europe with the ferocious Mediterranean cyclone at the bottom.

Have a good morning everyone. Unfortunately I currently don't have much time for weather ...


"But big wave surfers say they will have to miss the best storm ever, because the wind will be blowing in the 'wrong' direction."

This is likely obvious to many on here, but what does the article mean by 'wind will be blowing in the 'wrong' direction'?


starting to look like a tropical storm here look at all the rain from this storm
193. MahFL
Quoting 191. LAbonbon:


This is likely obvious to many on here, but what does the article mean by 'wind will be blowing in the 'wrong' direction'?


I think it's best when the wind blows against the tide, so the timing matters, likely the peak of the winds will co-incide with the tide going in the same direction.
Quoting MahFL:


I think it's best when the wind blows against the tide, so the timing matters, likely the peak of the winds will co-incide with the tide going in the same direction.

Winds needs to be onshore , opposite of the wave flow to sustain those classic curl shapes they can ride. When they are both the same direction it just becomes a gigantic shore break that is to dangerous to ride. Waves are huge but just collapse. Hope someone can post some photos though.
It will rain again next Tuesday as well..Tuesday seems to be the bad weather days.Others are starting to notice in the area.Over the summer it was thunderstorms in winter snowstorms now its rainstorms.
Quoting lat25five:

Winds needs to be onshore , opposite of the wave flow to sustain those classic curl shapes they can ride. When they are both the same direction it just becomes a gigantic shore break that is to dangerous to ride. Waves are huge but just collapse. Hope someone can post some photos though.


You mean the winds need to blow "offshore."
You want the wind blowing into the wave face (opposite direction) to hold it up.
Offshore winds also make the surf clean (smooth).

Onshore winds (same direction as the waves) make the surf choppy with a lot of white water (bad form).
I've been into surfing for a long time.
This is what you want for clean surf.

Looks like cali is in for a windy storm event
Quoting 191. LAbonbon:



"But big wave surfers say they will have to miss the best storm ever, because the wind will be blowing in the 'wrong' direction."

This is likely obvious to many on here, but what does the article mean by 'wind will be blowing in the 'wrong' direction'?


You need a offshore wind.
Quoting 164. Jedkins01:



The worst part is Duke keeps expanding, the company is a Carolina power company, but now has spread all the way into much of Florida as well


Unrestrained growth is the strategy of cancer cells.
Don't miss commutes like that. Looks like the Jersey Shore line will have delays this afternoon.

www.surfchex.com

Looks like Manasquan, NJ has some pretty rough storm surf.

All good points. I don't play it because you're right, I don't know how to play it. IMO it's "rigged" because insiders are privy to special knowledge. It's not a level playing field. For myself, wall street is so far detached from main street that it just leaves me baffled.

From where I sit there are still a lot of unresolved economic problems: Unemployment is still high, underemployment is even a bigger issue, wealth is being consolidated in fewer and fewer hands, 18 Trillion in debt.

But hey it's all just my opinion and I appreciate yours.

Hopefully you have an easy ride home (and you brought your umbrella).




Quoting 179. LongIslandBeaches:
Momentary pause in weather discussion... here are some thoughts from an individual American investor.



Partially agreed. I would say that the stock market overreacts irrationally to what reality dictates, and that it enjoys, more than all else, certainty.

It is a rigged game in which you may or may not get lucky.


It always astounded me how often I hear this sentiment. I suppose it's a "rigged" game for those who don't know how to play it.

It is way overdue for a major correction.


The "correction" that occurred during the fall was less than 10%, which is typically the threshold for a healthy correction in a long term bull market, so I am in agreement there. But again, the market likes certainty, which the current economy has a lot of. Lowering unemployment, rising job growth, generally lowering commodity prices, stable bond market, and historically low interest rates are the recipe for stock market growth, regardless of individual company performances.

Anyway, back to some weather stuff. The daily commute into NYC during this Nor'easter event this morning took only 15-20 minutes longer than usual, which in my eyes, is a win. I was expecting highway flooding, moronic drivers, and an easy extra 30 minutes commute. I suppose it's still early though. Flooding is being reported in New Jersey and on the Belt Parkway.
Link
Quoting 199. Sfloridacat5:



You mean the winds need to blow "offshore."
You want the wind blowing into the wave face (opposite direction) to hold it up.
Offshore winds also make the surf clean (smooth).

Onshore winds (same direction as the waves) make the surf choppy with a lot of white water (bad form).
Many years ago , I surfed a 9 footer that broke too close to shore . Board went nose down into the hard sand as I fell down behind it. One of the fins tore into my leg just before I slammed the bottom . It was the worst wipe out I ever had. Second was when I fell into the path of my friends long board. He hit me on the skull with the one large skeg ..split me wide open..:)

The Appalachians may get some snow in a week or so..

Why is the CMC so cold for tomorrow night?? Looks like i will be in the 30's but the CMC has had me in the low 30's for days now
Ahh, the bane of surfing. You need onshore winds to create waves, but offshore winds to clean them up.

That's why Hawaii is such a desirable surfing destination. You get waves propagated by storms 1,000 miles away that travel as wave energy (groundswell), but they arrive to a coast where the winds are offshore and lighter making for "clean" conditions.

Big reason east coast surfing is a fickle and inconsistent endeavor. Also why it's so special when everything comes together on those perfect days.

I've always compared it to a big snowstorm. All the conditions have to be just right for it to happen.


Quoting 191. LAbonbon:


"But big wave surfers say they will have to miss the best storm ever, because the wind will be blowing in the 'wrong' direction."

This is likely obvious to many on here, but what does the article mean by 'wind will be blowing in the 'wrong' direction'?
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


You mean the winds need to blow "offshore."
You want the wind blowing into the wave face (opposite direction) to hold it up.
Offshore winds also make the surf clean (smooth).

Onshore winds (same direction as the waves) make the surf choppy with a lot of white water (bad form).

You are correct I always get those two mixed up. Thanks for clearing that up now maybe I'll remember.
Can you spot the low?


Little Egg Inlet, about 10 miles north of Atlantic City, is in major flood stage.
On my cell. Can anyone post some buoy data?
Quoting 183. MahFL:



That's because it's upper air moisture :
"This imagery represents a special kind of infrared measurement which measures the temperature of clouds and water vapor in a layer of the atmosphere about 6-10 km above the surface."


Yes. It's always disconcerting during the summer knowing that the California coast is socked in with fog, then looking at the satellite image and seeing intensely dry air.
Quoting hydrus:
Many years ago , I surfed a 9 footer that broke too close to shore . Board went nose down into the hard sand as I fell down behind it. One of the fins tore into my leg just before I slammed the bottom . It was the worst wipe out I ever had. Second was when I fell into the path of my friends long board. He hit me on the skull with the one large skeg ..split me wide open..:)

The Appalachians may get some snow in a week or so..

See, it's stories like that that made me, being a life long coward when it comes to pain, decide that surfing was not a sport I wanted to engage in. :-)

Yes, that cold front should be right over my house sometime next Tuesday. How much rain it brings and in what form is still a toss up. We have a mini Omega block going on now, as the high builds in and slays the Georgia Wedge. Whereas yesterday the 10 minute high was 51 under a low overcast, the skies have cleared and it's already up to 54. It got down to 30 last night, 4 degrees lower than predicted, and I see no reason I won't be in the 20's tomorrow and Friday morning. After that, we start a quick warm up and should be near 70 with dewpoints in the 60's for the frontal passage. It doesn't look like the air behind the front is significantly cooler than what we've already seen, so the week before Christmas should be a near repeat of this week. After that, things get a little more hazy, but it does appear that the NAO will finally be headed to near or in negative territory, which may open things up for some real winter weather. That assumes that NAO really turns negative and, so far, the forecasts for that happening haven't been too good. As we say so often, stay tuned for further updates.
Quoting 197. hydrus:




Question- the CFS is basically the GFS ensembles run at extra low resolution so they can be run farther into the future w/o excessive computing requirements? I think. I don't know.

So when the GEFS are in their time range, shouldn't they be superior to the CFS?





Um, I just looked at those images again. Ooops.
"Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)...
The trough shifts to the east on Saturday as an upper level ridge
moves onto the West Coast. This should bring a break in
precipitation for most areas on Saturday and Saturday night but
lingering showers are possible over the mountains during the day.
Sunday should be a dry day across most of the area as the ridge
shifts east. Another low pressure will likely impact the area
early next week, though confidence is low in exact details. Next
week`s system will not be nearly as strong as this week`s. Dang "

That's not commentary at the end, that's the forecaster's actual name!
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Why is the CMC so cold for tomorrow night?? Looks like i will be in the 30's but the CMC has had me in the low 30's for days now
Because the models, regardless of how data is massaged to show fine detail, really don't have the ability to forecast in fine detail. No model is good at being able to predict weather at the level of an average US county let alone city. The farther out in time, the less accurate, to the point a model like the GFS or GEM/CMC are really only slightly good at showing large pattern changes, like generally colder over the SE. The models pretty much got that right, but that's why we still have, and will have for a long time, local weather offices. They are the ones that take all the model inputs and combine it with local skill and experience to produce the detailed forecasts that models are really only simulating.
Quoting hydrus:
Many years ago , I surfed a 9 footer that broke too close to shore . Board went nose down into the hard sand as I fell down behind it. One of the fins tore into my leg just before I slammed the bottom . It was the worst wipe out I ever had. Second was when I fell into the path of my friends long board. He hit me on the skull with the one large skeg ..split me wide open..:)

The Appalachians may get some snow in a week or so..



Surfing can be dangerous. A guy that I used to surf with was killed when his surfboard hit him in the head. It was a real good day, and the surf was pretty big.
One surf trip to Baja during a high surf advisory (10-15ft surf), my two friends both got hurt. I ended up having to surf by myself while they sat on the beach.

But my biggest issue with all the time I've spent in the water surfing has been my 3 stingray barbs (two times in my foot and once in my ankle).
The time I got a stingray barb in my ankle it got really infected (almost instantly). I ended up needing IV antibiotics for days to save my leg. The infection got so bad in just a couple days. The infection made it half way up my thigh before it finally started going down. I was about 1 day away from having my leg cut off to keep the infection from spreading to my vital organs.

Jelly Fish, even Portuguese man o' war stings don't really bother me all that much. I've been stung hundreds of times. But I definitely don't want another stingray barb. Those suckers hurt like crazy and the infection can be dangerous.


heavy rain here in new haven,conn
Little "Alexandra"-airmass-loop from today (first part with pics every second hour, second part with hourly shots). Quite a girl, hm?

Quoting 201. WaterWitch11:

Looks like cali is in for a windy storm event


I'm surprised they haven't gone with storm warnings rather than gale. We've seen more wind from storms in previous years than what they're predicting...so far.

However, latest discussions are getting more interesting. Some indication now that the front will stall directly over the SF Bay Area with even heavier rainfall. There's also some indication of the front slowing its onset/arrival until later Thursday.

Looking at the satellite and the upper wind pattern, it's amazing the computer models can even see any of this. It looks like chaos right now. Mention is made in the NWS discussion of efforts to modify the inputs to reflect the abnormal coastal SSTs.


its still rainning here in new haven at at 11:25am on December 09, 2014
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting EdMahmoud:


Question- the CFS is basically the GFS ensembles run at extra low resolution so they can be run farther into the future w/o excessive computing requirements? I think. I don't know.

So when the GEFS are in their time range, shouldn't they be superior to the CFS?
Hey, Ed, how goes it?

My understanding is that the GEFS uses the same 21 ensemble members as the GFS. The difference is that NCEP slightly perturbs each ensemble member in attempt to see which ensemble members are the most reliable compared to the overall GFS forecast. The GEFS is run only out to 16 days compared to the CFS running out to 30 days but using 40 different conditions but with an eye toward climatology and hindcasting so it can produce anomaly forecasts. Since each 10 day period uses 10 different members of its ensemble, the CFS always runs at a lower resolution that the GEFS. In theory, at least, the GEFS should always be more reliable in that 16 day period than the same period forecasts from the CFS. That's how I understand it, but I'm sure I will be rapidly corrected if I'm wrong. :-)
Now that I posted, the Doc should be on any minute!!!!!


Quoting 217. Sfloridacat5:



Surfing can be dangerous. A guy that I used to surf with was killed when his surfboard hit him in the head. It was a real good day, and the surf was pretty big.
One surf trip to Baja during a high surf advisory (10-15ft surf), my two friends both got hurt. I ended up having to surf by myself while they sat on the beach.

But my biggest issue with all the time I've spent in the water surfing has been my 3 stingray barbs (two times in my foot and once in my ankle).
The time I got a stingray barb in my ankle it got really infected (almost instantly). I ended up needing IV antibiotics for days to save my leg. The infection got so bad in just a couple days. The infection made it half way up my thigh before it finally started going down. I was about 1 day away from having my leg cut off to keep the infection from spreading to my vital organs.

Jelly Fish, even Portuguese man o' war stings don't really bother me all that much. I've been stung hundreds of times. But I definitely don't want another stingray barb. Those suckers hurt like crazy and the infection can be dangerous.
I too have been stung by a school of jellyfish. I was scraping barnacles off our props and rudders and the tide was coming in. I was literally engulfed by them. I was by that time used to being stung , so it was not to bad. I do not know what kind of jellies they were.

Quoting 210. wxgeek723:

Can you spot the low?


Little Egg Inlet, about 10 miles north of Atlantic City, is in major flood stage.



I can only see half the map on my phone.