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Gustav is intensifying again, and headed for Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:20 PM GMT on August 31, 2008

Gustav is intensifying again, and threatens to bring a destructive storm surge that will offer a significant test to New Orleans' rebuilt levees when it strikes Louisiana on Monday. Gustav tore across Cuba with 150 mph winds last night, but Cuba exacted a heavy toll on the storm. Passage over Cuba allowed wind shear to penetrate into the core of the storm, disrupting the eyewall and cutting the storm's winds by 35-45 mph. However, Gustav's day over the warm Gulf of Mexico has begun to rejuvenate the storm, and the pressure is starting to fall again. At 3:17 pm EDT, the Hurricane Hunters reported a pressure of 957 mb, down 5 mb from the eye report at 9:48 am. Winds at the surface and at the flight altitude of 10,000 feet have not changed significantly since this morning, and still support classifying Gustav as a strong Category 2 hurricane with top winds of 105 mph. However, the winds should start to increase by late tonight in response to the falling pressure.

The satellite appearance of Gustav is steadily improving. Visible satellite loops of Gustav show that the storm has recently assumed a more symmetric appearance, though the heaviest thunderstorms are still just on the south side of the eye. Upper level winds from the south are creating about 15 knots of shear over Gustav, restricting the upper-level outflow on the south side. The 35-mile wide eye is not very distinct, and the Hurricane Hunters reported that the eyewall was missing a chunk on the southeast side. However, the eye was elliptical this morning, and has now assumed a more circular, well-formed appearance.

The outer spiral bands of Gustav are now visible on New Orleans radar, and some rain bands have already affected the Mississippi River Delta region.


Figure 1. Estimated storm surge from NHC's experimental storm surge model. Note that these values will often differ from the latest official NHC forecast, and one should consult the latest text advisory for the most current storm surge information.

The latest track forecast
The latest 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs have shifted slightly west, with a central Louisiana landfall still the most popular solution. The GFDL model, which has all along insisted that Gustav would arrive at the coast a day earlier than the other models, has proven to have the correct timing. We should not be surprised if the center comes ashore as far east as New Orleans, or as far west as western Louisiana, given the current spread in the model tracks. Once Gustav makes landfall, it will slow down, and pose a significant rainfall/flooding threat to Louisiana and Texas. Portions of this region are under moderate to severe drought, so the flooding could have been worse. Only the HWRF model is forecasting that Gustav will drift southwestward back over the Gulf of Mexico after landfall. I am not expecting Gustav to be reborn off the Texas coast late in the week.

The intensity forecast for Gustav
Wind shear has remained in the moderate range (about 15 knots) today, and is forecast by the SHIPS model to decrease to 10 knots tonight. This amount of shear will allow Gustav to intensify. Gustav is moving further away from the upper-level anticyclone that helped it intensify as it approached Cuba, however. Overall, the upper level wind environment is favorable for intensification, but not as favorable as during yesterday's rapid intensification. Gustav has now left the warm waters of the Loop Current, and is over waters of much lower heat content than it has had. The latest 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model forecasts no strengthening, and brings Gustav to shore as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. The latest SHIPS intensity model predicts the same thing. The 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the HWRF shows that Gustav will weaken to a Category 2 hurricane by landfall. Given the recent improvement in Gustav's organization, I believe that the storm has time to intensify into at least a Category 3 hurricane with 125-130 mph winds by landfall. Gustav should not intensify as rapidly as it did when approaching Cuba.

Gustav's storm surge is not likely to breach the New Orleans levees--if they perform as designed
Gustav is a very large storm. Like Katrina, Gustav may carry a larger storm surge to the coast than its wind speeds might suggest. Currently, Gustav's diameter of tropical storm force winds is 340 miles. By landfall, this number is forecast to increase to 360 miles, which would make Gustav 80% as large as Katrina was at landfall. NHC's current storm surge forecast calls for a storm surge of 10-14 feet to the right of where the center of Gustav comes ashore. The latest computer generated storm surge map shows that highest surge will be along the levee system along the east side of New Orleans. Storm surge levels of this magnitude are characteristic of a Category 3 hurricane. The levee system of New Orleans is designed to withstand a Category 3 storm surge. If Gustav intensifies more than the NHC forecast is calling for, there is a significant threat of multiple levee failures in the New Orleans levee system resulting in flooding of portions of the city. However, the latest 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs have shifted their landfall points a bit further west, reducing the odds of a Category 4 storm surge in New Orleans. My best guess is that New Orleans will suffer a Category 2 or 3-level storm surge. The levees will hold with that level of storm surge, if they perform as designed.

Comparing Gustav to "Billion-Dollar Betsy"
Gustav's track and expected intensity at landfall are similar to those of Hurricane Betsy of 1965. Betsy was a strong Category 4 hurricane as it crossed the Gulf of Mexico, which then weakened to a Category 3 at landfall, right where Gustav is predicted to make landfall (Figure 2). Betsy brought a storm surge of up to 15 feet to Louisiana (Figure 3). According to wikipedia, levees for the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet along Florida Avenue in the Lower Ninth Ward and on both sides of the Industrial Canal failed. The flood waters reached the eaves of houses in some places and over some one story roofs in the Lower Ninth Ward. These levee breaches flooded parts of Gentilly, the Upper Ninth Ward, and the Lower Ninth Ward of New Orleans as well as Arabi and Chalmette in neighboring St. Bernard Parish. Seventy-six people died in Louisiana, and "Billion-Dollar Betsy" became the first billion-dollar hurricane ($10 billion in 2008 dollars). As a result of the hurricane, the Army Corps of Engineers was tasked with the job of upgrading the New Orleans levee system to withstand "the most severe
combination of meteorological conditions reasonably expected". As of today, that means protection from a Category 3 hurricane, but no higher.


Figure 2. Track of Hurricane Betsy of 1965.


Figure 3. Simulated maximum storm surge from Hurricane Betsy of 1965, as modeled using the ADCIRC model. Image credit: ADCIRC Development Group.

Links to follow:
New Orleans radar
New Orleans weather

Tropical Storm Hanna
The Hurricane Hunters are flying their first mission into Tropical Storm Hanna, and have found a weak tropical storm with 50 mph winds and a central pressure of 997 mb, according the 1:36 pm EDT eye report. Watching satellite loops of Hanna is kind of like watching a stick caught in turbulent rapids--the atmosphere is extremely chaotic in Hanna's vicinity, and it's tough to follow what is going on. Hanna has moved underneath an upper-level low that is pumping cold, dry air in. Hanna is also experiencing wind shear from the upper-level outflow from Hurricane Gustav. These effects have combined to keep Hanna a weak tropical storm. While Hanna does have a large circulation and some respectable upper-level outflow to the north, heavy thunderstorm activity is limited and is removed from the center.

The track forecast for Hanna
The current steering flow driving Hanna to the west is expected to collapse soon, resulting in a slow, erratic motion or small loop for Hanna. By 4-5 days from now, a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing Hanna to the northwest. Most of the long-range models foresee a landfall along the U.S. East Coast late in the week. The most popular model solution (GFS, GFDL, and HWRF) is a landfall Friday in North Carolina, followed by a track up the East Coast. The UKMET model targets South Florida on Friday, and the NOGAPS and ECMWF models target Georgia/northern Florida on Thursday night.

The intensity forecast for Hanna
Hanna will not be able to intensify significantly over the next two days, due to upper low it is situated under, and the outflow from Hurricane Gustav. By Tuesday, both Gustav and the upper low should be weaker, potentially allowing Hanna to intensify. The GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS intensity models all predict Hanna will be a Category 1 hurricane on Friday. However, due to the uncertain future evolution of Gustav, consider all intensity forecasts for Hanna beyond two days from now low confidence.

Middle Atlantic disturbance, 98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) is located near 22N, 45W, in the mid-Atlantic Ocean. Visible satellite images show that this disturbance has a well-defined surface circulation. However, the disturbance has very little heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to 20 knots of wind shear, and some dry air to the west. Wind shear should remain too high to permit development over the next two days, and is highly uncertain after that, due to the upper-atmosphere interactions occurring with Hanna and Gustav. NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. None of the models develop 98L, but Bermuda should keep an eye it.

Cape Verdes Islands disturbance, 97L
A low pressure system near 16N 35W (97L), is a few hundred miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Visible satellite loops show that 97L has a very large closed circulation, but little heavy thunderstorm activity. Dry air on the west side of the storm is getting wrapped into the circulation, interfering with development. Wind shear is a moderate 15 knots, and is expected to stay in the low to moderate range over the next four days. NHC has given this system a high (>50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. Several of the models develop this system, and the storm is expected to pass close to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday.

There are two other impressive African tropical waves lined up behind 97L that are also likely to be a threat to develop once they move offshore Africa this week. The long-range GFS model develops both of these waves.

I'll have a short update tonight, if there's any major developments to report.

Jeff Masters
Beginning of Hurricane Gustav
Beginning of Hurricane Gustav
These are some of the first storm clouds from Hurrican Gustav in southern Ascension Parish
Gustav's first sqall in Key West
Gustav's first sqall in Key West
It's been raining since morning, but this was the first real squall around 15:30 with reported gusts of 54 mph.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting WxLogic:


Here's the link:

Link

In my opinion... looking at the model trends and observations I'm unfortunately leaning towards an ECFL to NFL type event. I say this because the NAM has been shifting towards a possible landfall close to Fort Lauderdale while the other models keep it further N. I mention this because during these past months NAM has been able to get a nice handle on US High/Low development... in my opinion... and it trending towards the UKM (I know this model shifted a bit further N, but it has been consistent with the Atlantic High strenght) confirms to me that a FL type event might be shaping up. Of course is not set in stone and GA could pretty well get it. I will say any points from Fort Lauderdale to close to the GA/SC border have pretty good changes.


Thanks you. Interesting observation. Climatology also shows that this storm will either hit South Florida or track along the Carolinas.
Quoting weathermel:


Good morning. I'll be looking forward to your posts. I live just South of Youngsville, off of Verot School Road. Where are you?
of fieldspan across from Judice Park
3003. Bobbay
I live in Eden Isles, any update on final storm surge in Lake Pontchartrain?
Quoting SouthernFootprints:
2977. seawitch1261 5:33 AM CDT on September 01, 2008
Quoting SouthernFootprints:
Tornado seen on HWY 49 heading West at 70 miles per hour


Gulfport. Reported by local police.


I just checked the weather alert at the Sunherald. It looks like it's heading toward Stennis Space Center.
3005. Brillig
If the circulation is not lined up at different levels at landfall, which level is used to determine where the hurricane actually landed? I assume it is ground level, since that's where any damage would be. Is that correct?
3006. WxLogic
Quoting sflhurricane:


Thanks you. Interesting observation. Climatology also shows that this storm will either hit South Florida or track along the Carolinas.


I concur...
3007. Patrap
Hang on nola..big Gusts Coming round now..

Some Booms off to the Ne of Uptown..

patrap

Are you anywhere near Harahan? I was wondering what the general thought was about how the north side of the River ie Harahan would deal with the surge and flooding.

I know the West bank is said to be vulnerable, but it seems Haraha may be spared again ...

Any views?
3004. seawitch1261 5:45 AM CDT on September 01, 2008

I just checked the weather alert at the Sunherald. It looks like it's heading toward Stennis Space Center.

That is not good!!
I just made some coffee and am breaking into the breakfast of choice in hurricane supplies: Pop tarts. All that caffeine and sugar should calm my nerves! :)

My son is still sleeping. One of the cats is studying the weather radio. And the other two are mad because I won't let them out.
3011. Patrap
Im Uptown near Audubon Zoo

Good Morning all. Direct tv channel 361 has continuous coverage with lots of local details. Excellent graphics with details.
Quoting winterlover73:
this storm is really joggin west of north,, people need to understand this storm is likely to spend more time over water than once thought.,, and likley more west than thought on this blog at least. the curve of the coast may give it a slight drop (3-4MB) of pres before landfall,,, but this is highly spec.
I noticed that too. center missing forcast points. plotting center since three a m moving wnw looks like
Blowin pretty good, anyone have an idea of when we can expect the higher winds?
Those that need this bookmark this site.....

http://ahps.srh.noaa.gov/index.php?wfo=mobNational Weather Service River Report Link
Quoting homelesswanderer:
I noticed that too. center missing forcast points. plotting center since three a m moving wnw looks like
just turn on the TV they actually have pictures....and radar.
Even ECMFW has Hannah tracking up the east coast of Florida from around Miami/Ft. Lauderdale. And look what's behind her.
Link
kids and cats have finally settled down and gone back to sleep, ahhh peace an some quiet between rain and wind, ok frogs are croaking not so quiet LOL
3019. Brillig
Wind is blowing from SE at Pilot's station and pressure is increasing, so I'm signing off as I said.

Take care of yourselves, everyone. And remember, flooding risks continue after the winds let up.
Quoting SouthernFootprints:
3004. seawitch1261 5:45 AM CDT on September 01, 2008

I just checked the weather alert at the Sunherald. It looks like it's heading toward Stennis Space Center.

That is not good!!


I saw earlier you were concerned about daughter, Is her house in it's path? Prayers going your way.
Quoting weatherwart:
Even ECMFW has Hannah tracking up the east coast of Florida from around Miami/Ft. Lauderdale. And look what's behind her.
Link


GLDL nailed the track two days ago, amazing.....any idea when the stall might happen?
My dumb cat is asleep in bed with all of us....I am staying up on guard duy
3021. nola70119 -- No clue. I'll defer to the experts.
Looks like landfall will happen at Grand Isle, LA, can anone confirm this?
Thanks Patrap ... a different time zone .. so to speak for this storm ...
3026. IvansEx
Good to see you Patrap. Hope you are well...

Good morning from Pensacola, land of the early morning tornado warnings. I'm up being Keeper of the Warnings. Enjoying power (coffee) while we still can.

Lots of circulating winds and rain, it seems.

Going to try to read the blog, see if I can get my answers about landfall, NO, and my home state of LA.
3020. seawitch1261 5:55 AM CDT on September 01, 2008

I saw earlier you were concerned about daughter, Is her house in it's path? Prayers going your way.

Real close. Just 4 miles north of I-10 and West of 49. Most importantly though, they are here so they are safe!
3028. Patrap
Fine here.. got Power,coffee.
Very strong gusts now, I expect significant damage all over the city. New Orleans seem to be getting the bad side of this one. But so far no hurricane force winds.....or consistency...more gusting 60mph.
3030. IvansEx
Quoting Patrap:
Fine here.. got Power,coffee.
That's livin' large :)
Quoting PintailKiller:


I can only get it to stream 3 NO stations -
WGNO, WWL, WDSU.


Our BR station is working. Here's a direct link if you are interested.

Link
3028. Patrap 6:58 AM EDT on September 01, 2008
Fine here.. got Power,coffee.


BE SAFE MY FRIEND!!!
Quoting Patrap:
Fine here.. got Power,coffee.


Sweet.....how is the winds. We are getting hit pretty good near the Race Track.
3034. IvansEx
My neighborhood is on pinpoint weather map for tornado...bbl
Quoting SouthernFootprints:
3020. seawitch1261 5:55 AM CDT on September 01, 2008

I saw earlier you were concerned about daughter, Is her house in it's path? Prayers going your way.

Real close. Just 4 miles north of I-10 and West of 49. Most importantly though, they are here so they are safe!


That is good to hear!
3036. Patrap
Yes nola...this is the worst yet.
But Uptown faring well so far..few Arcs from Lines shorting..

But we can take this.
Quoting nola70119:
Cantstuck in evac motel would wake ev1 up
Quoting Brillig:
If the circulation is not lined up at different levels at landfall, which level is used to determine where the hurricane actually landed? I assume it is ground level, since that's where any damage would be. Is that correct?

the level will be sea level (2992 or 1013.2MB)
after all, that why all stations have calibration for SLP (not at SLP) ,, but a good question.
3039. Brillig
Quoting winterlover73:

the level will be sea level (2992 or 1013.2MB)
after all, that why all stations have calibration for SLP (not at SLP) ,, but a good question.


Well, the reason I ask is that the HH obviously doesn't fly at sea level, so wherever they pinpoint as the center is not necessarily the real center. Same with radar.
3041. Brillig
The HH planes seem to be very close together at the moment.
StormW

Welcome back and Good Morning ...
Good Morning! Glad to see our LA friends still on line and safe. I live in springhill in Mobile and tornado sirens woke me. This is the first time I remember hearing them.
Hello Patrap,

good to see you are well. Wondered about you and all the others.

Thoughts and prayers are with you that are in the storms way.
Stay safe!!
Lots of tornado warnings coming out one after another here in Santa Rosa County, FL. I'm in Navarre, midway between Pensacola and Fort Walton Beach. Got a persistent strong band with embedded thunderstorms coming onshore, and it seems like just about every one of those storms has potential rotation in it. I'll keep watching these and keep abreast of this situation and see if one decides to spin up on me here.
3047. Brillig
Quoting StormW:
3039. Brillig 7:05 AM EDT on September 01, 2008
Quoting winterlover73:

the level will be sea level (2992 or 1013.2MB)
after all, that why all stations have calibration for SLP (not at SLP) ,, but a good question.


Well, the reason I ask is that the HH obviously doesn't fly at sea level, so wherever they pinpoint as the center is not necessarily the real center. Same with radar


?????????


Please see 3005.

In other words, you can consider the eye to be a cylinder. But the cylinder could be leaning or asymmetrical. The center would be different at different altitudes.
It is still calm where I am (Lafayette) but it does look like weather will be rolling in around 8:30 or 9.
keep an eye on the area south of 97L the area has cyclonic turning and could become 90L in a few days time ???
New Orleans losing power in French Quarter according to CNN ... have friends in downtown weathering the storm ...
Power out....hope those levees are OK. So far I see no flooding....
It looks like future Ike will be here sooner then later and then future Josephine off the African coast. This is one heck of a period going right now for the Atlantic. Hanna is sustaining the intense convection even though it might be removed to the south. We will know more after the hurricane hunters go in this afternoon. Also the Hurricane Center said in their discussion should could strengthen quickly. I guess we will see. 97L is starting to consolidate its convection and a depression looks to be forming here now.
The wind here in Gulfport is picking up and the gusts are becoming heavier and more frequent.
wwltv in NO just went off the air, wdsu is still on
That's what they are saying on TWC, Grand Isle. On the map look like between NO and Houma.
Quoting nola70119:
Looks like landfall will happen at Grand Isle, LA, can anone confirm this?
Quoting Brillig:


Please see 3005.
So you start by asking a question and making an "assumption" (and we all know what ASSUME means) to telling StormW a "fact" (and we all know StormW's knowledge and background) based on a jibberish post you made previously ?? Brillig, you need to rethink your two posts...
3059. surfmom
Good Morning Patrap -Whew!! Good to see YOU!
Morning to you too StormW!
3060. YogiNav
Current surge from NOAA tide gauges Link .
Grand Isle 3 ft
New Orleans (New Canal) 2.1 ft
Pass Christian 5.1 ft
Dauphin Island 2.5 ft
Pensacola 2.6 ft

Preliminary data, additional effects of wave action not included.
3061. surfmom
No mail alert here either

Candle lit - prayer in mind for all those in Gustav's path
hi Surfmom
Looking at the satelite and radar pictures, does Gustav take a turn left= westwars ??
looks like the city is starting to loose power all over the place,
Kinda stupid question here, but what exactly constitutes landfall. It seems from the radar that tht edge of the eye has actually made landfall on the barrier islands, but the news says they are still a couple of hours away from landfall. What is the official "landfall"? Thanks.
Quoting chinacohen:
Highway 90 in MS going under water.
Which city? Are you near Edgewater? That section always goes under.
Quoting chinacohen:
Highway 90 in MS going under water.
Depending on where you are, that is very common.
Hanna appears to be blowing up. That's a lot of green:
mornin just drove in to work at the Firehouse (Prairieville ) little rain and about 20mph winds we still have power good luck and stay safe.
3073. Brillig
Quoting StormW:
3047. Brillig 7:11 AM EDT on September 01, 2008
Quoting StormW:
3039. Brillig 7:05 AM EDT on September 01, 2008
Quoting winterlover73:

the level will be sea level (2992 or 1013.2MB)
after all, that why all stations have calibration for SLP (not at SLP) ,, but a good question.


Well, the reason I ask is that the HH obviously doesn't fly at sea level, so wherever they pinpoint as the center is not necessarily the real center. Same with radar

?????????


Please see 3005.

In other words, you can consider the eye to be a cylinder. But the cylinder could be leaning or asymmetrical. The center would be different at different altitudes.


However, inthe case of a Major 'cane...it is vertically stacked. HH also use the dropsondes to confirm the COC at the surface as well as radar. At their flight level...ain't much difference between that and the actual surface.


I brought it up because as the eye approached landfall, it seemed to me that there were not only two different circles of circulation with different centers, but they had different sizes. This was judged from a radar composite image. That had me wondering if the center of circulation was different at different levels, particularly since the eye seemed to be falling apart.

I suppose I can study the data in more detail later. For now I'm going to bed.
BBL....Gotta tie down some loode ends before the bad stuff gets here.
Quoting StormW:
3068. iluvocala 7:22 AM EDT on September 01, 2008
Kinda stupid question here, but what exactly constitutes landfall. It seems from the radar that tht edge of the eye has actually made landfall on the barrier islands, but the news says they are still a couple of hours away from landfall. What is the official "landfall"? Thanks.


When the "center" of the eye passes directly over land.


Thanks!
99L, which I expect to become Josephine...97L looks to be on the verge of becoming TD 9


3079. Dakster
Good Morning Storm! I wish I could send a cup of hot coffee your way...

Looking at the radar and sat photos, it looks like this is about the worst spot Gustav could make landfall for New Orleans... Am I correct in this assumption?

My thoughts and prayers got out to the residents of the Northern Gulf Coast.
Good Morning from Ascension Parish. Just waking up and the nasty weather is here! Isnt rainging just yet but the clouds are some kind of ugly. We will be losing power soon im sure, i actually just heard a transformer blow up! Anyway, just wanted to let yall know! Keep us in your prayers!
jim cantore is finally going to be in the eye wall, his 16 year eye wall drought is over,
Hey Guys,

Just in case you want to watch NO being slammed.

http://www.nola.com/bridgecam/index.ssf
3084. CapnK
StormW - reposting this from last night, I think maybe I'd asked after you were done here for the evening. :)

#1708, I wrote:
StormW - re:the SLOSH software - what platform do you run that on (Win, Linux, Mac?), and does it take major computing power to do so? Is it included in another app like Hurrtrak EM/Pro, or is it a standalone application?

Just wondering - I have geek envy. ;) I live on a boat, (currently under the projected path of Hannah), so I would love to be able to run surge simulations. I'd have a better idea of what to expect once anchored in my 'hurricane hole' that way... :)


"lopaka001" posted a link (Thanks!) to a NOAA site with some storm-related info, but it didn't have much for the SC coast.
Morning guys from Pascagoula. Decided to stay after monitoring the storm and projected surge forecasts. Little breezy here with winds around 15-25 mph. Main threat for us right now is tornados. Gustav is spouting them off like acne. Oh well, hope all involved with this storm is safe.
Quoting chinacohen:


I evacuated to Biloxi north of I-10, but on WLOX they said 4 foot waves at Waveland and HWY 90 is under water.
WLOX showed a towercam of Jones Park underwater.
3088. CapnK
Been monitoring the "3 Hungover Guys and a Hurricane" ;) webcam - one of them is awake, and he just told the others:

"We're about to lose power, guys."

Nice rainfall sounds, you can see the trees moving a good bit in the background.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/hurricam%21--a-live-cam-from-the-eye-of-gustav
Hanna is bigger then Gustav was at the strengthening stage. She has a large TS force wind field now and stronger convection than Gustav, however it appears she is sheared to the northwest of the convection.
Intermediate advisory out at 6 AM CDT:

WTNT32 KNHC 011057
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
600 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

...EYE OF GUSTAV NEARING THE LOUISIANA COAST...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

Full advisory: Link
3094. Brillig
Looks like both HH planes had to veer left to find the center.
3089. chinacohen
He said flooding would get worse as the wind came out of the south too. That isn't good for my home in Waveland. I am really worried I am going to flood again

Did you re-build at the same ground level that destroyed your home the first time?
3071. SonnyBurnett 11:24 AM GMT on September 01, 2008
Hanna appears to be blowing up. That's a lot of green



wait, hanna has colder tops then gustav?

good morning
3100. Dakster
Quoting StormW:
3079. Dakster 7:29 AM EDT on September 01, 2008
Good Morning Storm! I wish I could send a cup of hot coffee your way...

Looking at the radar and sat photos, it looks like this is about the worst spot Gustav could make landfall for New Orleans... Am I correct in this assumption?

My thoughts and prayers got out to the residents of the Northern Gulf Coast.


Hell...wish we could share a cup and talk shop!

Same here...with my prayers!


One day we will. I bet we both have some interesting stories to tell.
3098. You need to wait until Gustav makes landfall. This is a potentially deadly Cat 3 making landfall on low-lying Louisiana.
China our prayers are with you please be safe!!!!!
3103. Keys99
The main flooding will occur after the eye gets even with you or is passing you.

A lot of ocean is being pushed/pulled by this storm and it can only go inland because of the location.
DO NOT let your guard down
Good morning and Prayers for all in the path of Gustav. Storm any thoughts to share this morning?

Pensacola (west), some gusts, some rain with thunder - tornado warnings to our east, Navarre/Bagdad and west Bladwin Co. AL
we lost power here in Warrington for a few minutes strong gusts heavy rain about 30 min ago
3099. chinacohen 6:39 AM CDT on September 01, 2008
Quoting SouthernFootprints:
3089. chinacohen
He said flooding would get worse as the wind came out of the south too. That isn't good for my home in Waveland. I am really worried I am going to flood again

Did you re-build at the same ground level that destroyed your home the first time?

1 ft higher


Is 1 ft a typo? Didn't you say in Katrina you got 20 ft of water. Did you mean to type 10?
Oil futures tanking, oooops! Sorry speculators!

Link
Morning folks

Hope everyone's safe and well this morning. Been watching this cam ...looked like a spout just went thru there a few minutes agoCam on the right (Not familiar with the Mobile area...Perdido Pass?)
3112. Hhunter
good morning La ...looks like you got some activity..dr lyons just made a good point about the surge.. it will be less than it could be becasue of angel of approach being more like 45 degrees instead of 90 degrees. spreads out the surge or energy over more space suggested 10 ft max surge v 12-15 ft.

we will see. still expect the worst and hope for the best
just shy of 2 inches of rain since midnight wind 28 out of the east gusts to 41 think some gusts have been higher
Here's an interesting statistic: By the time Hannah makes its hit somewhere along the SE US coast, we'll have had five consecutive US landfalls so far: Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, and Hanna. I wonder if that's ever happened before, to have one storm after another make a US landfall five times like that. Then of course, once 97L becomes Ike, who knows where that one will go...perhaps a 6th consecutive landfall?? Craziness...
3116. Hhunter
weatherml --nicely put, your nicer than me..
I got my 4 hours of sleep and wake up to... due west movement just south of LA coastline????

Please tell me I am wrong and I am having a nightmare...
hi stormw...will u have an update on hanna soon?
3119. Brillig
On NO radar it really looks like it's heading to Port Arthur now.
Someone posted this cool IR loop yesterday. Look at all those dark purples in Hanna. Wow. Link
Quoting chinacohen:
Gulfport Yacht Club is under water and still rising.


StormW, my house is on S. Beach Blvd. Waterfront.


I don't see how this is possible. They built it 15 feet up and it is three stories tall. Where did you hear this?
3122. Hhunter
wwnw that is what they are saying
000
ABNT20 KNHC 011149
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUSTAV...LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM
HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
AND IS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
3089. chinacohen

Is 1 ft a typo? Didn't you say in Katrina you got 20 ft of water. Did you mean to type 10?


Unfortunately, 1 ft is correct.


How in the world did you get insurance?
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.


That confirms basically at 11 we will have TD 9
Quoting Hhunter:
weatherml --nicely put, your nicer than me..


Thanks Hhunter - trust me - there were lots of not-nice words coming out of my mouth. LOL
3127. Brillig
Quoting seawitch1261:


I don't see how this is possible. They built it 15 feet up and it is three stories tall. Where did you hear this?


Liquefaction of the soil underneath could do it.
Quoting seawitch1261:


I don't see how this is possible. They built it 15 feet up and it is three stories tall. Where did you hear this?

starting to think some of the stories on here are either total BS or a little stretched.
Morning Storm - guess I am on "hold" like everyone else, Praying for those west of here.
Looks like Tropical Depression 9 will be initiated soon. Then perhaps TD 10 by tomorrow...and who knows with that other stuff...wow, the pot's really been stirred now, folks...Gustav's just the beginning here. Hang on!!!
3133. CapnK
The "Hurricam" (or: "3 Used-to-be-drunk, now just Hungover, Guys and a Hurricane") just went offline. Guessing they lost power, or it is becoming intermittent...
3134. IKE
Quoting JupiterFL:

starting to think some of the stories on here are either total BS or a little stretched.


Yeah...I think so too.


The building back 1 foot higher after getting flooding...apparently by 20 feet, is mind-boggling.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

just looked at some loops. looks like gustav has about 2 hours left. the cloud pattern in the southwest section looks a little better. Link

3136. Hhunter
9ft surge just reported in southern LA with a measurement device and storm not fully on shore yet..TWC
how's new orleans holding up?
3139. will40
3134. IKE

I agree Ike and it looks kinda like a certain station is getting a lot of plugs
Quoting JupiterFL:

starting to think some of the stories on here are either total BS or a little stretched.


Agree.
Hey Ike, what will you do in the Tropical Atlantic now that you have basically formed from 97L?
Wow.... And as if two named systems, one major about to make landfall on the US, and two invests isn't enough. Still, pressures aren't really dropping in areas 3 and 4 and the system which appears to have the greatest threat towards development is 97L at the moment.

I think everyone nerves are a little shot. When I see people asking about Hanna, and now possible another storm that the NHC might be starting advisories I take it that they feel they live in the path and are worried. I think we all can admit that the storms have been very, very odd this year. You also have allot of people that have come to this board and possible this is there first time reading it. God Bless you all in the path of Gus!
Gustav is closing off an eye. Stuart Robinson from severestudios.com is heading for the storm's center. Link
drats, I was just fixing to check in on the drunks :)
3147. Hhunter


well storm w your going to be busy for a while..bastardi predicting hanna to be sub 960mb thinks it will be a large scope major..but back to gustav
3143. TerraNova BUSY map, wow. (Mornin Terra)
Quoting TerraNova:
Wow.... And as if two named systems, one major about to make landfall on the US, and two invests isn't enough. Still, pressures aren't really dropping in areas 3 and 4 and the system which appears to have the greatest threat towards development is 97L at the moment.



NHC says if organization continues advisorys will be started at 11,
3151. gsmom
If FEMA funds were used to do it (ICC) and she lives where she says she does, they would have required much more than one foot.

I think most of us picked up on the damsel syndrome a day or two ago.
3152. IKE
Quoting chinacohen:


I came here to share information and get information, not be called a liar. I guess I will just watch WLOX. I don't need people like you right now.


Who the heck is calling you a liar?

When did I ever say or hint you were a liar?

I said building back one-foot higher in a location that got flooded by 20 feet of water is mind-boggling.
Good morning everyone. Our prayers are with everyone this morning. At least Gus didn't make it to a 4. Stay safe.
Morning met in Houston said we have only a 20% chance of rain today...

Does that sound right?
3124. SouthernFootprints 6:52 AM CDT on September 01, 2008
3089. chinacohen

Is 1 ft a typo? Didn't you say in Katrina you got 20 ft of water. Did you mean to type 10?

Unfortunately, 1 ft is correct.

How in the world did you get insurance
?

China - do you have insurance?
Watch the NRL site for 09L.NONAME, should be there in an hour or two.
Quoting SonnyBurnett:
Someone posted this cool IR loop yesterday. Look at all those dark purples in Hanna. Wow. Link
Thank you for reposting that link. That is a great view of both storms.
Quoting chinacohen:


I came here to share information and get information, not be called a liar. I guess I will just watch WLOX. I don't need people like you right now.
Seems the downcasters are downcasting the live tower cams! Ignore them.
Is Gustav intensifying on radar?
Agreed - those folks asking are concerned - they've seen the prep LA/MS/TX made days out and possibly wondering if they should as well.

Quoting TaminFLA:
I think everyone nerves are a little shot. When I see people asking about Hanna, and now possible another storm that the NHC might be starting advisories I take it that they feel they live in the path and are worried. I think we all can admit that the storms have been very, very odd this year. You also have allot of people that have come to this board and possible this is there first time reading it. God Bless you all in the path of Gus!
Quoting HurrikanEB:
how's new orleans holding up?


I'm listening to 870AM WWL from New Orleans; they're saying that portions of downtown have lost power. Metairie is reporting sustained winds of 15-20mph and gusts above 40. Anderson Cooper's in the city and he's saying that his area has lost power.
3164. Hhunter
from what storm is saying and with the quicker than expected landfall..i am glad your not there. but, i am sorry for anything happening to your home. very sorry..


Thats got to be a td.....

and so has this:

Quoting TerraNova:


I'm listening to 870AM WWL from New Orleans; they're saying that portions of downtown have lost power. Metairie is reporting sustained winds of 15-20mph and gusts above 40. Anderson Cooper's in the city and he's saying that his area has lost power.


All eyes on the Leeve's, they could very well breach.
3169. Remek
On radar it looks like the eye is starting to close up again.
Quoting StormW:
***Looks at graphics posted here on the Atlantic***takes more valium***places rush order for Xanax***buys Semi tractor full of Columbian coffee***


Send some of everything you're ordering to South Florida. We need it, too.

Sheesh.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS

Where else is left! The NHC just about covered the entire Atlantic with systems to be watched.
Quoting lawntonlookers:
Good morning everyone. Our prayers are with everyone this morning. At least Gus didn't make it to a 4. Stay safe.


yes, it could have been much worse
At the end of the 8 am TWO.......

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


That's because with 6 areas there is no place else left. LOL
Just a word to thank the brave HH Reservists taking the risks flying into these storms. It looks as though this will be a very bush month for them. Hoping their families are safe, as they are based at Keesler AFB, MS (Biloxi). The commander there Sunday ordered all nonessential personnel and families within 75 miles of the base to evacuate.
Quoting StormW:
***Looks at graphics posted here on the Atlantic***takes more valium***places rush order for Xanax***buys Semi tractor full of Columbian coffee***


Oh Lord - schooch over, I'll make the coffee
Quoting StormW:
***Looks at graphics posted here on the Atlantic***takes more valium***places rush order for Xanax***buys Semi tractor full of Columbian coffee***

I don't care who you are, that's funny right there...

I should sell you some of my energy drinks, Storm :)
Quoting Patrap:
Im Uptown near Audubon Zoo

Morning Pat -did you leave???
Quoting StormW:
***Looks at graphics posted here on the Atlantic***takes more valium***places rush order for Xanax***buys Semi tractor full of Columbian coffee***


ROFLMAO
Quoting TaminFLA:
I think everyone nerves are a little shot. When I see people asking about Hanna, and now possible another storm that the NHC might be starting advisories I take it that they feel they live in the path and are worried. I think we all can admit that the storms have been very, very odd this year. You also have allot of people that have come to this board and possible this is there first time reading it. God Bless you all in the path of Gus!


Agreed. Every storm that could affect any land area is important to keep an eye on and be prepared. Remember people, many do not live in the same area you do. This blog comment system for ALL tropical activity.
Quoting StormW:
***Looks at graphics posted here on the Atlantic***takes more valium***places rush order for Xanax***buys Semi tractor full of Columbian coffee***

hahahhahaha
3182. Hhunter
Well, extreme was right we would get full page TWO this year, but he only said 4, not 6 area's to watch.
i dont know but it looked like he was improving his organization on satellite loops
Storm -
Do you have a handle on the surge in Lake Ponch.? We evac'd to BR - wind is just now gusting a bit here - nothing serious to report... Bands seems pretty dry right - but I suspect that will change shortly.
THanks
Quoting wetlandsLA:
It is still calm where I am (Lafayette) but it does look like weather will be rolling in around 8:30 or 9.

Hey Wetlands....Lafayette here too.
97L hasn't been upgraded to TD status yet but it's getting there...estimated winds at 30 knots and pressure at 1006mb (pretty low for an invest) on the latest update. Yeah we'll probably have advisories on this soon enough if this trend continues.
China, I'm praying with you. God bless.
I have a question is Hanna hits SC Coast would it be worse for me for it to hit Hilton Head or for direct Landfall for Charleston. Just Wondering
North of the lake light rain and steady wind
Is it possible for Gustav to "bounce" off the coast and move more west along the coast down thru SE Texas, or do the steering factors not indicate that possibility?
3192. Hhunter
based on radar about 1 hour off shore but scraping coast... just south of houma
Hi Hannna

You ready to ride this one out?
look at all the storms here...crazy
Just wondering how many storms can fit in the atlantic basin at one time?? What is the record?
Quoting HurrikanEB:
i dont know but it looked like he was improving his organization on satellite loops


The eyewall is building on the eastern half but some of the heavier thunderstorm activity to the west of the center has weakened on radar. Probably still at 115 mph and that seems like a probable landfall intensity.
Quoting BoyntonBeachFL:
At the end of the 8 am TWO.......

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


That's because with 6 areas there is no place else left. LOL

What's funny too is when you look at the East Pacific, and all they have is one little yellow area. Then you click back over to the Atlantic, and it's like BOOM! Where did all THAT come from?? Madness I say...
holy moley! this thing got super busy. even if the 2 yellows dont do anything it is impressive
I wake up this morning and I see a beutiful thing,a weakening gustov and new orleans miss, NEW ORLEANS w/survive,we should all say a prayer for those in the path of the eye and thank god for sparing NO!!!!!
HI, all

I am new to this site and have gained an interest on tropical weather. I have many questions. Any suggestions on a site to go to start learning about tropical things. Please forgive any social mistakes as I have some issues there but learn and memorize very quickly. I live on St. Johns county Fl.
3201. stxtoto
Power of the internet. Amazing to be able to watch streaming video of 5 NOLA TV channels on one page. I've been watching since this link was posted 2 days ago here.

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/gustav.html
Quoting wetlandsLA:
Hi Hannna

You ready to ride this one out?

Yeah, why not. I thought Gus wasn't making landfall until noonish?????
It's VERY surprising how much deep convection Hanna has with her now. Been very persistent since last night...

Link
Fairly quiet in Biloxi, a bit breezy. I think we are about to get some feederbands. The lights flicker but we still have power. I am watching WLOX as well but I just woke up so I have not heard them say anything yet about water in Gulfport or Hancock County. It is of course very possible. I have no idea though about the yatch club.
Quoting headshaker:
Is it possible for Gustav to "bounce" off the coast and move more west along the coast down thru SE Texas, or do the steering factors not indicate that possibility?


The ridge to the north won't be strong enough to turn this that sharply to the west as far south as the SE Texas coast.
This pic is getting crazy......wow
Back to working on my blog...

3208. RyanCRG
Live from Houma!!!
http://thestormreport.com/livetrack.php
3209. ricderr
Not everyone is eligible for FEMA funds


perfectly said....people to need to realize....fema is not the end all godsend that for some reason katrina made it seem....i've been through 3 hurricanes..not a dime from fema..and most storms...do not get the attention...the fund raising that katrina did and especially new orleans...no glamour in a hurricane for most people..and i'm thinking..those that get the glamour...would pass on it if they could
Thanks for the humor StormW. I needed that. Those of you who may be affected by Hanna, I don't mean to downplay the concern you have. I feel for you - trust me - all I'm asking is for the focus to not be shifted to her just yet. Possibly later this afternoon?
Getting really bad in Louisiana.
3212. Hhunter
Quoting stillwaiting:
I wake up this morning and I see a beutiful thing,a weakening gustov and new orleans miss, NEW ORLEANS w/survive,we should all say a prayer for those in the path of the eye and thank god for sparing NO!!!!!


lets get the storm surge through and then you can be fully happy
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Yeah, why not. I thought Gus wasn't making landfall until noonish?????
listening to the radio and they said that someone reported the eye crossing grand isle....don't know if that is right or not
i hate it how people are always posting the same thing 2 minuites before me.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT
85 MILES...135 KM...SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND
ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA.

THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 67 MPH...108 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 86
MPH...139 KM/HR.
I just wanted to let yall know amazingly I still have power. My anemometer is clocking winds of 82.45 mph and my pressure is at 964mb. A gigantic branch has hit the corner of my house and there is massive damage to that area of the roof.
Quoting TerraNova:
97L hasn't been upgraded to TD status yet but it's getting there...estimated winds at 30 knots and pressure at 1006mb (pretty low for an invest) on the latest update. Yeah we'll probably have advisories on this soon enough if this trend continues.


and i think 99L will very quickly follow.... its fairly organised... and winds are probably higher than estimated.
3217. TXKiwi
7am position report.
AT 7 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST
6am was
28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1

So has jumped straight west 12 miles in the last hour????????????
Quoting NOLACANEWATCHER:
I just wanted to let yall know amazingly I still have power. My anemometer is clocking winds of 82.45 mph and my pressure is at 964mb. A gigantic branch has hit the corner of my house and there is massive damage to that area of the roof.


Ouch!
Quoting HurrikanEB:
how's new orleans holding up?
Here is a link for direct live streaming news coverage from all 4 tv channels, it is very cool. With this link you can watch all channels from out of New Orleans. Then you dont have to wonder whats going on over there. Best part the news is not dramatized. No drama-queens on there just plain simple news coverage. Link


That looks sub-tropical....
Navarre area has had feeder bands come by every hour or so this morning. Winds are not too bad, light rain, lightning. We have had a number of tornado warnings. Keeping the TV on when DirecTV is working (cuts out with each band)to listen for tornado's in the area.

My prayers go out to those in the storms direct path
3224. Hhunter
autistic2 welcome.. this might be a good morning to sit back and watch as we have gustav coming ashore..but again welcome
People's nerves are on edge. Misinformation makes matters worse. Thus far, WLOX has made no mention of the Gulfport Yacht Club.
That is amazing 6 systems they are watching. I assume its only possible for four of these systems to form or remain at strength. 97L and 99L are the main areas to watch behind Hanna and Gustav. Gustav could very well be the strongest hurricane this season. 150mph wind hurricane is nothing to laugh at. However I see Hanna becoming a major perhaps nothing lower then 950mb. Future Ike and Josephine look very healthy and are pretty large as well as Hanna.
3227. Dakster
Quoting StormW:
***Looks at graphics posted here on the Atlantic***takes more valium***places rush order for Xanax***buys Semi tractor full of Columbian coffee***


We need a fundraiser for you storm. Donate to supply Storm with all the tools he needs to continue forecasting this year.
Contribute to the Storm CVX Fund. (Coffee, Valium, Xanax)

What do you think Storm?

That a heck of a graphic from the NHC. I dare to think about all of those areas becoming TD's shortly. Everyone will have their hands full.
They just reported from Waveland on Fox News. Wind is about 50mph. Nothing too damaging.
I'm concerned about the inland area of South Mississippi, around Hattiesburg/Laurel, as I have relatives and friends there.

My sister lives in a catagory 1 double-wide mobile home near Collins (about 30 miles north of Hattiesburg), and it suffered some light damage with Katrina. I was concerned enough yesterday moring to call and enourage her to stay somewhere else for the duration.

It now seems that they will mainly receive tropical storm winds, so she should be OK. Does anyone concur, considering that far inland and it's path.
Quoting NOLACANEWATCHER:
I just wanted to let yall know amazingly I still have power. My anemometer is clocking winds of 82.45 mph and my pressure is at 964mb. A gigantic branch has hit the corner of my house and there is massive damage to that area of the roof.
What happened? I thought you were going to the Hilton?
3231. Hhunter
nolacanewatche exactly where are you..
Autistic2: Welcome! I think you will find the long term posters here, the regulars are very busy this morning- (I am a new poster/long lurker).....so read along with everyone and see what you can pick up:)
3207. TampaSpin

Tim? Looks like you're going to be working on that blog for AWHILE!!
All areas of Hwy 90 in Harrison County, Ms is closed, due to water coming over it
3236. Brillig
Quoting TXKiwi:
7am position report.
AT 7 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST
6am was
28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1

So has jumped straight west 12 miles in the last hour????????????


Why do you think I said it looks like it's headed for Port Arthur?
Quoting NOLACANEWATCHER:
I just wanted to let yall know amazingly I still have power. My anemometer is clocking winds of 82.45 mph and my pressure is at 964mb. A gigantic branch has hit the corner of my house and there is massive damage to that area of the roof.

How about you take some pictures and post them for us. Not sure about those readings unless you are on the coast.


65mph next advisory?
3240. aquak9
NOLACANeWATCHER-

please be safe,ok? just you and your dad don't get hurt, ok?
Quoting stxtoto:
Power of the internet. Amazing to be able to watch streaming video of 5 NOLA TV channels on one page. I've been watching since this link was posted 2 days ago here.

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/gustav.html
thats bloody brilliant
Okay... they are saying that yes...storm surge is up on the beach and a bit on the East bound lanes on HWY 90. However, these are loooowww spots and they always flood. Racetrack Rd, in D'iberville has water on it too. Not too bad yet, it's just coming over the road.
3243. Hhunter
gotta say that gustav seems to be moving almost due west the last few frames..due to shape of the coast i am afraid she could slide 100 miles west down the coast..get ready further west..some one else jump in and see what you think on the radar loop.
The barrier islands are taking a pounding Link

If afraid East Ship and Chandeluer won't have much left after this.

Thankfully we still have power in Gulfport. The surge is starting to really come in along hwy 90, we're starting to get more southerly winds. But thank God we won't see a catastrophic katrina surge again.

China, may I ask why you did not evac? I am interested in hearing stories of those that did not, and why? Thanks!
3215. NOLACANEWATCHER Glad to hear from you and that you guys are alright
Quoting StormW:
hurricanehanna,

Morning!
Mail!

Heya Storm!
Thanks for all the info you have been providng so people know what is going on. We appreciate you so much!!!!!!
SW: Do you mean the NHC auto emails? I haven't gotten one since Friday.

Quoting StormW:
3052. chinacohen 7:13 AM EDT on September 01, 2008
I just heard on TWC that water was up 4 feet in Waveland.


Mail alert not working.

Mail!
The barrier islands are taking a pounding Link

If afraid East Ship and Chandeluer won't have much left after this.

Thankfully we still have power in Gulfport. The surge is starting to really come in along hwy 90, we're starting to get more southerly winds. But thank God we won't see a catastrophic katrina surge again.
Quoting JupiterFL:
They just reported from Waveland on Fox News. Wind is about 50mph. Nothing too damaging.

No water either.
3238. IpswichWeatherCenter THAT, is getting interesting down there too...Ouch for my namesake
3253. aquak9
JupiterFL- have you read NOLACANEWATCHER's blog?

he's already taken enough pics and been thru enough with K_.
3254. TXKiwi
Quoting Hhunter:
gotta say that gustav seems to be moving almost due west the last few frames..due to shape of the coast i am afraid she could slide 100 miles west down the coast..get ready further west..some one else jump in and see what you think on the radar loop.


Yeah, I mentioned a couple of minutes ago the NHC 6am vs 7am position reports had a due west 12mi shift, both readings were 28.8N, so no northward movement at all.

StormW - you are the expert... what do you make of it?
3255. CapnK
Quoting Tsapp2008:
I have a question is Hanna hits SC Coast would it be worse for me for it to hit Hilton Head or for direct Landfall for Charleston. Just Wondering


That depends on a lot of different factors, first and foremost would be - your location.

All things being equal, having the storm center to your southwest puts you in the worst place to be - the "NE Quadrant". So it is in your best interest that a landfall happens further N along the coast from wherever it is that you are.

Now, with that being said - Hannah is still a long ways off, in distance and time, so there is no predicting accurately where she will make landfall in SC, or if she even does. Just be ready, as if it were to happen, and then if it doesn't, you haven't lost out on much at all. :)
3256. stewman
Current radar looks like Gustov is hugging the louisianna coast moving west?
3257. Remek
Quoting Hhunter:
gotta say that gustav seems to be moving almost due west the last few frames..due to shape of the coast i am afraid she could slide 100 miles west down the coast..get ready further west..some one else jump in and see what you think on the radar loop.


Makes one wonder if that high is building S faster than expected.
New Orleans evacuated for 45 mph winds
idiot reporter on cnn is gonna get hit by a street sign...

sorry to wishcast... :)

They make it seem exciting and people want to get out there and do it too...
Quoting Autistic2:
HI, all

I am new to this site and have gained an interest on tropical weather. I have many questions. Any suggestions on a site to go to start learning about tropical things. Please forgive any social mistakes as I have some issues there but learn and memorize very quickly. I live on St. Johns county Fl.


Hurricane Research Division
Frequently Asked Questions


Good site to learn the basics before getting more in depth.
Quoting TXKiwi:


Yeah, I mentioned a couple of minutes ago the NHC 6am vs 7am position reports had a due west 12mi shift, both readings were 28.8N, so no northward movement at all.

StormW - you are the expert... what do you make of it?


would be interesting if it is already stalling before being blocked further inland... could force the western shift
Quoting aquak9:
JupiterFL- have you read NOLACANEWATCHER's blog?

he's already taken enough pics and been thru enough with K_.

I want to see some pics of the roof. Sounds bad.
The area near the leewards has a yellow box look for this to develop once hanna moves out
Quoting bluewaterblues:
New Orleans evacuated for 45 mph winds


better safe then sorry, after all you cant really blame them
3268. Hhunter
dam does anyone think there is a chance he could slide west toward galveston and south east texas as a cane>
3269. Remek
Quoting bluewaterblues:
New Orleans evacuated for 45 mph winds


Monday-morning-quarterbacking makes everyone an 'expert'.
Quoting NOLACANEWATCHER:
I just wanted to let yall know amazingly I still have power. My anemometer is clocking winds of 82.45 mph and my pressure is at 964mb. A gigantic branch has hit the corner of my house and there is massive damage to that area of the roof.



Looks like other than a wind event,NO looks to be out of the woods for a canal breach,thank god,but still a close call for you and your family~best of luck,god bless
3271. Brillig
HH 27 seems to have found COC in exactly the same spot HH 28 found it about 30 minutes earlier. Now HH 28 needs to find the center again.
Quoting KatyTexasNewbee:
Here is a link for direct live streaming news coverage from all 4 tv channels, it is very cool. With this link you can watch all channels from out of New Orleans. Then you dont have to wonder whats going on over there. Best part the news is not dramatized. No drama-queens on there just plain simple news coverage. Link


thank you
I'm west of Pensacola, and it's CRAZY here. You'd think we were in the cane.
Quoting JupiterFL:

No water either.


Good, I hope it stays that way. They are reporting homes flooding in the area though.


They did say there are reports of flooded homes in Hancock County however they added these are UNconfirmed reports.
On all the tv channels they are predicting a much more western turn for the storm, and i can see that on radar. The NHC forecast is still more north though. Which do yall think is right?
WLOX just showed the tower cam from the Hancock Bank building. It show the Gulfport Harbor. No buildings are under water.
Quoting Remek:


Monday-morning-quarterbacking makes everyone an 'expert'.


Just statin the facts chief
3278. stewman
Quoting Hhunter:
dam does anyone think there is a chance he could slide west toward galveston and south east texas as a cane>


That is what it looks like to me. Maybe just a wobble, but it has been doing this for about a hour now...
Quoting Remek:


Monday-morning-quarterbacking makes everyone an 'expert'.


The winds were not the threat - it's the possibility of a levee breach again.
The reason I'm upset about the unconfirmed reports about the Gulfport Yacht Club being under water is my brothers live about a 1/4 mile from there.
I was just curious- I thought one of her posts I saw (chinas) was that she lived on an island- or the beach? Thats why I was confused on not evacuating. no problem- carry on!

Which way do I run?!
3284. IKE
Quoting SouthernFootprints:
China - did you miss my post?

Do you have insurance??


Did you ever get an answer?
Quoting Hhunter:
dam does anyone think there is a chance he could slide west toward galveston and south east texas as a cane>


We should know in an hour.

If you look at the high clouds from Gus in TN, they seem to be "pinched" by what is left of the high.

Last night I posted that the high was leaving, but it seems to have done an end run and is now pushing from the east and north.
Little band heading up to Ft. Walton area...heads up...TVSs
seawitch: I think everyone realizes that tempers are short this morning. Possilble counting to 10 before posting :)
Quoting stewman:


That is what it looks like to me. Maybe just a wobble, but it has been doing this for about a hour now...

Can anyone elaborate??
Quoting Hhunter:
dam does anyone think there is a chance he could slide west toward galveston and south east texas as a cane>


Do you mean before landfall?
3290. TXKiwi
Quoting theman13:
On all the tv channels they are predicting a much more western turn for the storm, and i can see that on radar. The NHC forecast is still more north though. Which do yall think is right?

West - it just slid west in the last hour... I have a house in Lake Charles... Wish I could get a professional opinion from Storm or Tampaspin...
good morning all have coffee and still have lights here this morning in ALbany (70711) steady rain temp 74 winds 4 mph from the ENE pressure 29.41

1. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

TD 9 here we come
3284. IKE 7:33 AM CDT on September 01, 2008
Quoting SouthernFootprints:
China - did you miss my post?

Do you have insurance??

Did you ever get an answer?


Nope. She didn't answer the nice LT yesterday that was trying to help her either.
China,

Did your property get any water during George?
3296. Brillig
Quoting Brillig:
HH 27 seems to have found COC in exactly the same spot HH 28 found it about 30 minutes earlier. Now HH 28 needs to find the center again.


Looks like it's finding a center somewhere else. One is about 2000 feet higher than the other. This looks like the misaligned COCs I was talking about before.
3297. Remek
Quoting weathermel:


The winds were not the threat - it's the possibility of a levee breach again.


Spot-on correct.
MSNBC is now reporting the levies are not going to be able to hold the water on the west side and are going to flood. THey were showing a live shot of NO. It is not looking good there.
Morning StormW
3299. IKE
Per FEMA deputy director...stated on MSNBC....some of the levees in NO may be partially breached from Gustav.
Everyone should breath and count to 10 before typing. Or take an ativan or valium. I think I'll do that. This has been a long weekend. :-(
3301. Hhunter
yes, if it moves almost due west the slope of the coast before texas would favor that path being traveled over water..i hope i am wrong...
idon'tlike that wobble to the west.. it has been going on too long
3303. o311
Time to talk about Hanna, did the 8am (est) models come out yet.
Hanna is showing a strong curvature signature. This noted by the comma shape of her convective cloud mass. Its possible she is displaced to the northwest of the edge of convection, however by the present appearance it appears her center is under the convection.
Quoting twostars:
MSNBC is now reporting the levies are not going to be able to hold the water on the west side and are going to flood. THey were showing a live shot of NO. It is not looking good there.
Morning StormW


God ... I'm not surprised. Kinda expected this. Still, the news leaves me speechless.
Quoting bluewaterblues:
New Orleans evacuated for 45 mph winds


If they hadn't and it was a direct strike? On the mouth of the river,for example?
3308. IKE
Per MSNBC...Gustav going through ERC and is reforming slightly further north and east...this should be inland soon.
3310. Hhunter
yep msnbc definetly talking about it.
Quoting IKE:
Per FEMA deputy director...stated on MSNBC....some of the levees in NO may be partially breached from Gustav.


Partialy breached? Seems to me that they are either breache or the are not breached...
Morning from Jackson, MS. Y'all have a great blog here, I've enjoyed reading it over the last couple of days.

Windy and much cooler here, 76 degrees.
Quoting Floodman:


If they hadn't and it was a direct strike? On the mouth of the river,for example?


Ignore bluewaters.
is it this me or is are rader showing that are storm is now moveing W???
3316. noshoes
PensacolaBuoy, why is it so crazy? How far west of Pensacola are you?
I am in E. Pensacola. All quiet here.
So far in Mid City New Orleans we have recorded 70.8mph gusts.

Quoting IKE:
Per MSNBC...Gustav going through ERC and is reforming slightly further north and east...this should be inland soon.


Not seeing Double eyewalls on radar. So no EWRC.
Hanna buoys & ships

As for Gustav, he quit erroding the high north of him so think the north movement has pretty much stopped til the high moves off alittle more to the east, which is happening pretty quick. So more west than north for now but the high is truckin so don't expect a TX hurricane either.
Quoting NinetyWt:
Morning from Jackson, MS. Y'all have a great blog here, I've enjoyed reading it over the last couple of days.

Windy and much cooler here, 76 degrees.


Good morning. I was born in Jackson. Have the rain started there yet?
3322. Brillig
Quoting IKE:
Per MSNBC...Gustav going through ERC and is reforming slightly further north and east...this should be inland soon.


What is ERC?
China, FOX News has a guy reporting live from waveland MS isn't that where you said your house was?
seawitch :)

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KGPT.html
3325. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not seeing Double eyewalls on radar. So no EWRC.


Oh well....just reporting what they said....don't want anyone else on here accusing me of being a liar.


HI all - I'm not hearing anything about breaching from the local news channels in NOLA - wonder where MSNBC is getting their info?
Hannah looks like she got her act together over night; I imagine we'll see some tropical storm watches go up in florida from ft laud to jax sometime later today
zoelouise1126 Where in Mid-City PWS at Ursulines showed 13 at 6:30. METAR at Superdome 17. But Belle Chase NAS 40+ gusting 60+. Did you catch a microburst?
how are the winds 120 when nobody is getting more than tropical storm force winds?
Quoting IKE:


Oh well....just reporting what they said....don't want anyone else on here accusing me of being a liar.




Ike, who made the tropics explode? We got Gustav, Hanna, 97L which is on the verge of becoming TD 9 via the NHC, 99L, and two other weak disturbances?
Mike Bettis in Gulfport for TWC. He said waters were approaching Hwy 90, but surge won't be the problem. Thought he said maybe 4 to 5 feet.
levees breached already? Is this not kinda early as the storm has just really gotten intense and the worst has yet to even come. I mean, I knew they would, but gosh....
FEMA not a reliable source of information (or anything else). No local media reporting breaches NOLA.
Quoting kingzfan104:
how are the winds 120 when nobody is getting more than tropical storm force winds?


What? Grand Isle is reporting gusts well over Category 3 strength.
3300. I am passing out xanax for everyone...

Folks are stressed due to all the activity (well thank you captain obvious). Take a few breaths and remember that people are just like you and don't want to be ripped a new one.

Any updates on hannah? We are measuring plywood today just to be ready in case...seems our builder forgot to leave it with us so we're making a run to home depot this morning just to make sure we're not jammed come thurs if she really does make it our way.

Any news on Gus?
ERC means Eyewall Replacement Cycle
Quoting CocoaLove:


Good morning. I was born in Jackson. Have the rain started there yet?
Heyas! No, not yet. Clouds are beautiful - I would post a photo but my daughter took my camera to Europe.

Just what Florida needs - warnings possible put up today. Not good for those that panic.
Quoting Clickerous:
Hannah looks like she got her act together over night; I imagine we'll see some tropical storm watches go up in florida from ft laud to jax sometime later today


wtf are you talking about? its moving 2 mph and we are barely even in the cone.
looks like a big blow up on the west side
3346. cmp
I'm listening to local TV...4 NO stations and 1 BR. No one reporting levee breaching.
there is one reporter saying well it looks like we won't get much devistation, is he mad, wait till the backside mate and then say that. all the videos show trees down a roof off and other typical stuff, water is rising, idiot bad reporting it ain't over till it's over
3348. Hhunter
really don't see the reformation based on radar data... ?
3326: MSNBC had some guy on, I don't want to say who it was and get it wrong. He was on the phone with them doing an interview. They have had really good coverage all night. I have been watching since 1 this morning and they seem to be on top of it better than most of the stations do. Not a plug for them, they just are doing full coverage and everyone else is going back and forth from that to the news.
Looks like we could see a TD off the African coast soon, possibly within 24 hours.



Morning all...

at 7:41CST NWC issued Tornado Warning 7 miles SE of Cottage Hill, 11 miles N of P'cola moving NW 38mph
Quoting CybrTeddy:


What? Grand Isle is reporting gusts well over Category 3 strength.


o ok, do you any channels who have news people there?
Hav you noticed all the armchair QBs this morning...I guess it's always like that.

West end levees going, huh? That's the side of town NOLACANEWATCHER is on, yes?
3357. o311
Somebody post the 8am models for hanna
3359. YogiNav
Watching the surge Link . Select preliminary data for real-time, green line on graph is surge. Does not include wave effects.

Pensacola maybe (topping out?) 3 ft
Dauphin Island 2.8 ft
Gulfport 3.3 ft
Shell Beach, LA 7 ft
New Orleans 2.9 ft
Grand Isle 3.2 ft
FEMA is saying likley the storm will over top the levees, i don't think they are saying this has happened yet
Looks like we are going to be on hurricane alert for awhile.
Ya know.. I see wehat y'all are seing on radar, however, I plotted the last couple of vortex reports, including the latest pass(with no vortex report but you can see the wind direction and zero wind)I also viewed the radar and extrapolated all this into a line.. My "guess(and that's all it is)is that CoC will pass over the north side of Marsh Island. Here is the map, and my extrapolation...

Hey everyone made it to TX about 3am So how is Gustav doing?Hey Floodman what cha think?
Sheri
Not me Floodman! I was just trying to keep the peace :)
Also 99L just off of Africa looks to be a Caribbean storm. 97L looks to be either a Bermuda or East Coast of the US threat.
HHunter, how long can we expect the W movement?
3368. Hhunter
Howdy, folks, by the way...a little pre-occupied (as everyone is, I guess) with Gus
Hana maybe the surprise. hurricane center better get on stick. Its not looking good this morning.
Good morning, all. Had dinner on Ft. Lauderdale beach last night and the waves were crazy. 2 dead and 1 missing, presumed dead, due to rip currents.
I guess the drunk guys finally went offline. Power prob. out.
Next time they need to invest in a generator.
Houston going to get it
I wonder how that family did on the shrimp boar everyone was talking about last night?
winds for HANNA went up too 50kt and mb down to 994mbs



WHXX01 KWBC 011252
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1252 UTC MON SEP 1 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA (AL082008) 20080901 1200 UTC


...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.1N LONCUR = 72.7W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 23.7N LONM12 = 71.9W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 23.4N LONM24 = 70.0W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 100NM
um ... his eye is getting clearer...stupid land'canes
Good moring everyone. Just survived another band from Gustav here in Gulf Breeze, Florida. Only one tree pushed down right now. Winds still gusting from the ESE. Stay safe everyone.
3379. clwmark
Quoting Hhunter:
lloyd, you were not speculating you where stating...and if it happens ...the old saying would apply.."sometimes a blind squirl finds an acorn.." does that make you feel better..
Dr. Lyons said yesterday a turn to the W. right at landfall was a possibility so I don't think "sometimes a blind squirl finds an acorn.." applys here since it was brought up by a Dr. of Meteorology.
Quoting leftovers:
Houston going to get it
70% of eyewall in gulf, eyewall now reforming, moving due west, hugging the coast.
TD 09

invest_RENUMBER_al972008_al092008.ren
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Hey everyone made it to TX about 3am So how is Gustav doing?Hey Floodman what cha think?
Sheri


Hiya, Sheri...looks like less of an issue for NOLA, more of an issue for points west...I haven't even looked at the usual suspects for reporting so I can't really say. Given what it was doing last night I thought Barataria, about where Plaquemines and Jefferson Parish come together, but he must have slowed a little
Hanna is currently under about 25kts of wind shear and yet the center isn't exposed lol
Yes! I would love to know how the family is on that shrimp boat!
Quoting leftovers:
Houston going to get it


Not to sound alarmed, but is this something I should inform my family memebers about? We have evacuated from SE TX and some are talking about going home today.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE (AL092008) 20080901 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080901 1200 080902 0000 080902 1200 080903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 38.8W 18.5N 41.8W 19.6N 45.0W 20.9N 48.2W
BAMD 17.4N 38.8W 18.2N 41.5W 18.8N 44.4W 19.5N 47.3W
BAMM 17.4N 38.8W 18.3N 41.7W 19.1N 44.7W 19.9N 47.6W
LBAR 17.4N 38.8W 18.1N 42.0W 19.1N 45.2W 20.4N 48.9W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080903 1200 080904 1200 080905 1200 080906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.7N 51.8W 26.9N 59.2W 30.4N 62.9W 31.6N 64.9W
BAMD 20.0N 50.4W 21.1N 57.1W 21.3N 63.6W 20.6N 70.4W
BAMM 20.7N 50.9W 22.5N 58.0W 23.8N 64.1W 23.8N 70.0W
LBAR 21.7N 52.3W 25.0N 58.0W 26.5N 62.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 61KTS 67KTS 66KTS 65KTS
DSHP 61KTS 67KTS 66KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.4N LONCUR = 38.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 17.5N LONM12 = 35.0W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 32.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

We have TD 9...advisories begin at 11 am
Quoting leftovers:
Houston going to get it


You know, after looking at how good the models have performed I would not be surprised if you get some of the action aver there in Houston.
3390. rxse7en
Morning, all.

Hope everyone is high and dry out there.

GFDL and HWRF have shifted south again on Hannah--bringing her back into FL/GA border as a 'cane. Which, of course, means this will be a Carolinas storm. :D
3391. Brillig
Quoting indianrivguy:
Ya know.. I see wehat y'all are seing on radar, however, I plotted the last couple of vortex reports, including the latest pass(with no vortex report but you can see the wind direction and zero wind)I also viewed the radar and extrapolated all this into a line.. My "guess(and that's all it is)is that CoC will pass over the north side of Marsh Island. Here is the map, and my extrapolation...



Did you notice, though, that the centers for the two planes differed? The lower one was closer to shore than the higher one. Sure, the lower measurement was taken later. However, that same plane found a center in the exact place as the other one did half an hour earlier.

Maybe the storm is just weakening and getting disorganized?
The news just reported the eye has reformed and is now moving north and east...StormW is that true? That would put it closer NO
Geraldo is in New Orleans and is recording Hurricane force wind gusts.
Hey there flood. hurricane mode catagory 1. Watch that area near the windwards. Jamaican weather service said they expected another system to affect their island next week. Most likely its the system near the windwards.
Tropical Depression 9 has formed in the Tropical Atlantic.
3396. chrisrw
Quoting dean2007:
Also 99L just off of Africa looks to be a Caribbean storm. 97L looks to be either a Bermuda or East Coast of the US threat.


Don't be silly. Much too soon to predict.
3397. KBH
Quoting dean2007:
Also 99L just off of Africa looks to be a Caribbean storm. 97L looks to be either a Bermuda or East Coast of the US threat.

Correct observation, it is gettng busy out there
we now have TD 9




WHXX01 KWBC 011254
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC MON SEP 1 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE (AL092008) 20080901 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080901 1200 080902 0000 080902 1200 080903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 38.8W 18.5N 41.8W 19.6N 45.0W 20.9N 48.2W
BAMD 17.4N 38.8W 18.2N 41.5W 18.8N 44.4W 19.5N 47.3W
BAMM 17.4N 38.8W 18.3N 41.7W 19.1N 44.7W 19.9N 47.6W
LBAR 17.4N 38.8W 18.1N 42.0W 19.1N 45.2W 20.4N 48.9W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080903 1200 080904 1200 080905 1200 080906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.7N 51.8W 26.9N 59.2W 30.4N 62.9W 31.6N 64.9W
BAMD 20.0N 50.4W 21.1N 57.1W 21.3N 63.6W 20.6N 70.4W
BAMM 20.7N 50.9W 22.5N 58.0W 23.8N 64.1W 23.8N 70.0W
LBAR 21.7N 52.3W 25.0N 58.0W 26.5N 62.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 61KTS 67KTS 66KTS 65KTS
DSHP 61KTS 67KTS 66KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.4N LONCUR = 38.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 17.5N LONM12 = 35.0W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 32.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Quoting TaminFLA:
Not me Floodman! I was just trying to keep the peace :)


LOL...I try that too; watch your step!
Quoting extreme236:
Hanna is currently under about 25kts of wind shear and yet the center isn't exposed lol


I know I dont get it! She was under 15kts of wind shear a few days ago and was as naked as can be!
3402. skfnek
hmm...watching NOLA tv on this linkLink
and these guys are saying the eye is moving west.....NOT coming onshore.......

anyone else seeing the same?

just wondering since we are in Galveston........thanks guys.....
3404. h0db
WGNO just broadcast a New Orleans police summary.

Zero arrests for looting. The handful of incidents mentioned were for illegal firearms possession, 1 carjacking and 1 armed robbery before the curfew and some more minor stuff.
3405. Hhunter
Quoting LSUBigMike:
HHunter, how long can we expect the W movement?


i will defer to storm or another expert on that question. But, i am concerned about it based on observation..
It looks like New Orleans may have been spared the worst of the storm when it made that hard left turn at the end. Also, looks like Hanna will be an east coast storm, 97L a fish storm and 99L, Who knows?
Woa!! Winfd blowing pretti hard this is a pretty strong band. Gotta go!!
Quoting dean2007:
Also 99L just off of Africa looks to be a Caribbean storm. 97L looks to be either a Bermuda or East Coast of the US threat.

97L: Southeast/Caribbean threat
99L: Too early to tell
Good Morning.
Can someone tell me the best place to get updates on the position of Gustav? I have lots of radars but I prefer mapping the storm based on the HH's cordinates
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


You know, after looking at how good the models have performed I would not be surprised if you get some of the action aver there in Houston.


Local MET this morning in Houston gave us a 20% chance of rain today...

Where, oh where, is Dr. Frank this morning?
Quoting StormW:
Greetings again!

I have to run out for about 20 min. When I return, I'll begin analysis for Hanna. My update will contain little on Gus...as we know where he is. I'm aware of the other disturbances, and if I have time...will address 97L nad 99L. First though, will be Hanna...my rule of thumb...take care of the threat closest to home first.


97L's now a Tropical Depression.
WHXX01 KWBC 011254
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC MON SEP 1 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE (AL092008) 20080901 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080901 1200 080902 0000 080902 1200 080903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 38.8W 18.5N 41.8W 19.6N 45.0W 20.9N 48.2W
BAMD 17.4N 38.8W 18.2N 41.5W 18.8N 44.4W 19.5N 47.3W
BAMM 17.4N 38.8W 18.3N 41.7W 19.1N 44.7W 19.9N 47.6W
LBAR 17.4N 38.8W 18.1N 42.0W 19.1N 45.2W 20.4N 48.9W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080903 1200 080904 1200 080905 1200 080906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.7N 51.8W 26.9N 59.2W 30.4N 62.9W 31.6N 64.9W
BAMD 20.0N 50.4W 21.1N 57.1W 21.3N 63.6W 20.6N 70.4W
BAMM 20.7N 50.9W 22.5N 58.0W 23.8N 64.1W 23.8N 70.0W
LBAR 21.7N 52.3W 25.0N 58.0W 26.5N 62.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 61KTS 67KTS 66KTS 65KTS
DSHP 61KTS 67KTS 66KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.4N LONCUR = 38.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 17.5N LONM12 = 35.0W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 32.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Hey everyone made it to TX about 3am So how is Gustav doing?Hey Floodman what cha think?
Sheri


Hey Sheri...who are you guys deploying with?
I know that I haven't had enough coffee yet this morning - but didn't Katrina clear the area, everyone said all clear and then the levees started to fail?
On Gustav's present track, I wonder how the offshore rigs are fairing.
Quoting TaminFLA:
FEMA is saying likley the storm will over top the levees, i don't think they are saying this has happened yet


Seems like it was the next day after landfall the failure/flooding began the last time. Do we have access to the storm surge data then compared to Gustav so far for this time frame?
110mph Gustav is now a cat 2 I think either that or a very weak cat 3
Did I just see correctly there are 4 other areas of interest in the atlantic besides gus and hannah
3420. RyanCRG
Morning all!
LIVE FROM HOUMA LA!!!


http://thestormreport.com/livetrack.php

Tropics are busy today!!!

HH just dropped a dropsonde in the eye and the highest wind band. View on google earth. NOLA is gettin lucky!


I would be keeping a close eye on this situation if I were in Galveston
Quoting zoomiami:
I know that I haven't had enough coffee yet this morning - but didn't Katrina clear the area, everyone said all clear and then the levees started to fail?


Yea, thats what happened.
3423. clwmark
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Geraldo is in New Orleans and is recording Hurricane force wind gusts.
Geraldo could find hurricane force winds in Topeka if it would make for a good story.
3424. Hhunter
dr frank...retired
gus is now a cat 2 hurricane
Thanks Storm!
3427. rxse7en
Quoting JupiterFL:

Hell I have water in my pool too.
LOL!
3428. IKE
Breath easier Texas bloggers....latest advisory...Statement as of 8:00 am CDT on September 01, 2008

...Gustav weakens to a category two hurricane...eyewall moving onto
the southeastern Louisiana coast...
Quoting zoomiami:
I know that I haven't had enough coffee yet this morning - but didn't Katrina clear the area, everyone said all clear and then the levees started to fail?



Yes, you are correct Levees broke after land fall.
Quoting LSUBigMike:
HHunter, how long can we expect the W movement?



i will defer to storm or another expert on that question. But, i am concerned about it based on observation..

Appreciate that - Storm W, anyone else have thoughts on this? I am watching local NOLA TV (from houston) and cannot get much info on this W movement.
3432. TXKiwi
0800 CDT advisory just posted. Gus has moved .1N and .1W so due NW in the last hour; so moving back on its original track just with a 12mi jump to west in between
Gustav now a Cat 2

REPEATING THE 800 AM CDT POSITION...28.9 N...90.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.
Gustav's a Category 2 now.
Gotta go check Cantori out maybe getting a piece of the eye wall in houma.
Quoting Brillig:


Did you notice, though, that the centers for the two planes differed? The lower one was closer to shore than the higher one. Sure, the lower measurement was taken later. However, that same plane found a center in the exact place as the other one did half an hour earlier.

Maybe the storm is just weakening and getting disorganized?


well I totally agree that it is becoming disorganized, but I stand by my extrapolation.. IMO, this storm has NOT changed track to this point to the west. It is still traveling in a relativly straight line as I posted it..
Hope this counts as relevant: I read the gulf was having a big problem with biologically dead spots due to, amoung other things, lack of oxygen in the water.

I have to believe the water churning and waves must restore some life to these waters. Does anyone know where these spots are relative to Gustav or how the hurricanes affect these spots?
3440. KBH
Quoting all4hurricanes:
110mph Gustav is now a cat 2 I think either that or a very weak cat 3

I thought Gus was suppose to be heading East. They are tracking him West, then East!.suppose it is better to put every on alert
Both TAFB and SAB say TD 9 is already TS Ike...in fact, TAFB forecasts TD 9 to be nearing 45kts soon.

Hanna's models
3443. WxLogic
Quoting StormW:
Greetings again!

I have to run out for about 20 min. When I return, I'll begin analysis for Hanna. My update will contain little on Gus...as we know where he is. I'm aware of the other disturbances, and if I have time...will address 97L nad 99L. First though, will be Hanna...my rule of thumb...take care of the threat closest to home first.


Looking forward to it...!!!
3444. h0db
Gus is still 70% off shore, still has an eyewall, tracking west hugging the coast.
99L now has winds of 30kt and mb down to 1007mb looks like we could have TD 10 be for the day is done
3446. Brillig
Quoting clwmark:
Geraldo could find hurricane force winds in Topeka if it would make for a good story.


He just needs to open his mouth to find hurricane force winds.
thanks Storm, I did't think that sounded right. they are putting so much information out they probably misspoke. That is why I referred to you.
3448. Remek
Quoting skfnek:
hmm...watching NOLA tv on this linkLink
and these guys are saying the eye is moving west.....NOT coming onshore.......

anyone else seeing the same?

just wondering since we are in Galveston........thanks guys.....

Keep an eye on the NWS radar:

New Orleans long range
3450. A4Guy
Morning all! what a busy Atlantic!

What is the likelihood of hanna relocating the center under the deep convection? those cloud tops are amazing!
3451. WxLogic
T.S. Hanna:

By the way... based on the latest QUICKSAT the center has relocated to the TS Mass.

Link

Expect a new track and of course some updates coming up on the new models after 00Z preferrably. We'll see if the HH to go in there today will validate the new COC.
mimic~ a better look at the surface..(not for dial up)
any one have a link to td9 or 97l?
3454. RyanCRG
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Tropical Depression 9 has formed in the Tropical Atlantic.


I don't see it on NHC's site where did you get that?
3455. IKE
New Orleans NAS, Louisiana (Airport)
Updated: 6 min 32 sec ago
Rain
79 °F
Rain
Wind: 46 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 72 mph

Pressure: 29.23 in (Falling)
Visibility: 2.5 miles
Elevation: 0 ft
Just watching TWC --- I miss John Hope.
Quoting RyanCRG:


I don't see it on NHC's site where did you get that?


On the NHC model page.
3458. YogiNav
Quoting Pensacolalurker:


Seems like it was the next day after landfall the failure/flooding began the last time. Do we have access to the storm surge data then compared to Gustav so far for this time frame?


Real-time tide gauges on line at Link . Click on the location and select preliminary data from box. Katrina report from NHS has surge data, but no time series graphs. Will look further.
3459. Brillig
Quoting indianrivguy:


well I totally agree that it is becoming disorganized, but I stand by my extrapolation.. IMO, this storm has NOT changed track to this point to the west. It is still traveling in a relativly straight line as I posted it..


Oh, I agree. I made a comment to that effect when I noticed both HH planes veering to the left to find their COCs.
3460. clwmark
He has slowed his forward NW speed and looks like he is trying to take a Westerly jog right now.Link
Quoting HurrikanEB:
any one have a link to td9 or 97l?


WHXX01 KWBC 011254
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC MON SEP 1 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE (AL092008) 20080901 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080901 1200 080902 0000 080902 1200 080903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 38.8W 18.5N 41.8W 19.6N 45.0W 20.9N 48.2W
BAMD 17.4N 38.8W 18.2N 41.5W 18.8N 44.4W 19.5N 47.3W
BAMM 17.4N 38.8W 18.3N 41.7W 19.1N 44.7W 19.9N 47.6W
LBAR 17.4N 38.8W 18.1N 42.0W 19.1N 45.2W 20.4N 48.9W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 48KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080903 1200 080904 1200 080905 1200 080906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.7N 51.8W 26.9N 59.2W 30.4N 62.9W 31.6N 64.9W
BAMD 20.0N 50.4W 21.1N 57.1W 21.3N 63.6W 20.6N 70.4W
BAMM 20.7N 50.9W 22.5N 58.0W 23.8N 64.1W 23.8N 70.0W
LBAR 21.7N 52.3W 25.0N 58.0W 26.5N 62.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 61KTS 67KTS 66KTS 65KTS
DSHP 61KTS 67KTS 66KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.4N LONCUR = 38.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 17.5N LONM12 = 35.0W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 32.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Last time im posting it, thats offical data from the NHC, it always means that a TD has formed. You don't get it unless theres a Tropical Cyclone
gustov no longer going to make landfall as a major!!!!!..cat 2 now!!!!
Quoting WxLogic:
T.S. Hanna:

By the way... based on the latest QUICKSAT the center has relocated to the TS Mass.

Link

Expect a new track and of course some updates coming up on the new models after 00Z preferrably. We'll see if the HH to go in there today will validate the new COC.


closer to florida?
Quoting IKE:
Breath easier Texas bloggers....latest advisory...Statement as of 8:00 am CDT on September 01, 2008

...Gustav weakens to a category two hurricane...eyewall moving onto
the southeastern Louisiana coast...

So gustav is no longer Major how can a storm with dropping pressure also drop it's winds
09L.NONAME on Navy Site. Click the ALL button on the main page, 09L will come up.
Anyone know what its like in Baton Rouge? My nephew had evacuated but got called back to work. ( he works in the hospital as a nurse) He was bringing his family with him to the hospital. But we have not heard if he was able to make it back into the city.
Quoting houstongator:
Just watching TWC --- I miss John Hope.


I miss John Hope too.
Quoting WxLogic:
T.S. Hanna:

By the way... based on the latest QUICKSAT the center has relocated to the TS Mass.

Link

Expect a new track and of course some updates coming up on the new models after 00Z preferrably. We'll see if the HH to go in there today will validate the new COC.

Looks like some believable 50-55kt wind vectors in there. I expect Hanna to be increased to at least a 65-mph tropical storm on the next advisory.
3470. 21N71W
Hello All,
Well Hanna is waking up here in the turks and Caicos:
Temperature: 79.0 °F / 26.1 °C
Humidity: 90%
Dew Point: 76 °F / 24 °C
Wind: 30.0 mph / 48 km/hfrom the WSW
Wind Gust: 48.0 mph / 77 km/h
Pressure: 29.36 in / 994.1 hPa
236 the SDD site has the T # for TD 9 at 2.5
Question: if this is a relative "non-event" (compared to Katrina) for New Orleans, how much will it affect people's decisions next time a major is headed that way?

I've seen in Houston after Rita that a lot of folks assume every storm will turn away from here at the last minute.
Tropical Depression 9
3474. Brillig
On local TV, they have finally (after about an hour) stopped mentioning that Gustav will make landfall any moment now.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
09L.NONAME on Navy Site. Click the ALL button on the main page, 09L will come up.


Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB say it's already a tropical storm, in fact the Data T-number (forecast intensity) from TAFB of 3.0 it could be upgraded if they wish to do so.
3476. Remek
Quoting all4hurricanes:

So gustav is no longer Major how can a storm with dropping pressure also drop it's winds


Winds lag several hours behind a pressure rise or fall.
Quoting RyanCRG:


I don't see it on NHC's site where did you get that?

Yeah as they said, it's on the Navy site. It won't show up on the NHC site until 11AM EDT since that's their next normal advisory time.
greentortuloni~ A large part along with the hot SST of the 2005 monumental dead zone was due to the oil & chemicals released during the 'canes. From what I understand it was a pretty down played enviromental disaster. No news was put out about what rinsed up out of the gulf stream here on the beaches of east central Fl after either. If there was no rigs out there & surge pulling filth back out to the gulf, this may have been a good thing for the dead zone.
99L

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yea, thats what happened.

Storm Surge will usually lag the wind - in some cases by almost 24 hours - the wind drags the water
Quoting extreme236:


Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB say it's already a tropical storm, in fact the Data T-number (forecast intensity) from TAFB of 3.0 it could be upgraded if they wish to do so.

They'll probably be conservative and keep it as a TD for their first advisory since they don't have HH planes to confirm intensity, just satellite estimates...then if it continues to at least hold its own or improve, then upgrade it to Tropical Storm Ike.

IKE--you ready for your storm? :)
As for oil & gas forecast, % shut in looks below 40% with 1/2 that being back online in 4 days.
3483. BlxMS
Quick report from Biloxi. Overall, afring pretty well, but given the S LA landfall, not at all unexpected. GOM is over highway 90 but not frighteningly so. This is NOT particularly unusual. Some older houses that were not required to rebuild to new FEMA elevations are approaching taking some (minor amounts) of water. Back Bay has been clearly impacted by the surge and is overflowing but not dangerously so. The old fishing bridge to D'Iberville is still well above the level of the bay. Beach structures rebuilt after K and properly elevated are in no danger of taking water. None of the 40 houses in my neighborhood that were inundated are any immenent danger of flooding. Squalls continue to fly through, but rainfall totals are amzingly low. Don;t belive we've had even any gusts over 40mph at my place. There are some trees down in various points around the County and those are a pain in the a**, but most of these were probably very damaged in K and had just had no excuse for coming down. None of my friends have lost power for more than a minute or two before coming back. Prayers for those in S. LA and a prayer of thanks for being mostly spared here.
We're getting our windows thoroughly washed here in Baton Rouge.
3485. CJ5
I had not searched around but to save some time, is the coc of Hanna in the heavy convection or is it still displaced?
236 looks like 99L is on its way too TD 10 i think it will be there be for the day is done wow its looking good
Well winding down here in MS. Still plenty of 45 mph gust and tornado warnings. Flooding is also a bit of an issue. Piece of cake.
Nephew reporting power out in the Tulane area of NO.
Downtown (Superdome heliport0 Wind 060 @ 9 knots gusting 23. Hearing from blogger embeds of isolated high winds (microbusts?) Geraldo needs a new anemometer
Are we looking at a blog hole?

First of the morning...
3491. Hhunter
new blog
1st disc of CCRs greatest hits couldn't be more appropriate for this AM....Born on the Bayou, Bad moon risin', who'll stop the rain, have you ever seen rain...great soundtrack for Gus...My prayers to all in his path
First death in ascension parish. Someone on I-10 ran into a tree.
Gustav was NOT a major hurricane...I don't know how else to say this but there is just nothing on the ground to support that...
Quoting headshaker:
Question: if this is a relative "non-event" (compared to Katrina) for New Orleans, how much will it affect people's decisions next time a major is headed that way?

I've seen in Houston after Rita that a lot of folks assume every storm will turn away from here at the last minute.


Theywill evacuate.....this hit as a tropical storm IMO.....a real hurricane would have been a big problem.