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Gulf of Mexico's Hermine Finally Gets its Name; Hurricane Madeline Lashing Hawaii

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 10:50 PM GMT on August 31, 2016

Tropical Depression Nine in the Gulf of Mexico finally got its act together enough to deserve a name, the NOAA Hurricane Hunters discovered on Wednesday afternoon. They found top sustained winds of 45 mph in Tropical Storm Hermine, ending a week-long drama that left us all wondering if someone had cast a “hold” spell on the storm. However, the aircraft found that the storm’s central pressure remained a fairly high 1004 mb, and Hermine has a lot of organizing to do before it can become a hurricane. Late Wednesday afternoon, the strong winds from Hermine were already creating storm surge heights over 1’ along the entire Gulf Coast from New Orleans, Louisiana to Naples, Florida. The maximum surge was just over 2’ at Cedar Key, Florida on Wednesday afternoon. Satellite images on Wednesday afternoon showed a much more organized storm, with heavy thunderstorms building near the storm’s center and some significant low-level spiral bands forming. Wind shear continued to be a moderate 10 - 15 knots on Wednesday afternoon, but water vapor satellite imagery still showed plenty of dry air to the storm’s north and west; the combination of these factors is likely slowing down the intensification process. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near Hermine’s center remained favorable for development, near 30.5°C (87°F).


Figure 1. MODIS visible satellite image of Hermine on Wednesday afternoon, August 31, 2016. Note the large area of intense thunderstorms to the northeast of the storm, over the west coast of Florida. This chunk of moisture and its associated spin are from a non-tropical low pressure system, and appear poised to get entrained into the circulation of Hermine. When this happens, Hermine will expand considerably in size, and may dump heavier rains than are currently forecast. Image credit: NASA.

Intensity forecast: Hermine may become a Category 1 hurricane
The SHIPS model on Wednesday afternoon predicted moderately favorable conditions for intensification, with wind shear staying a moderate 10 - 15 knots through landfall on Thursday evening. SSTs will be a very warm 30 - 30.5°C (86 - 87°F), and mid-level relative humidity was predicted to be a reasonably moist 65%. Our three best intensity models--the HWRF, DSHIPS and LGEM models--were in good agreement with their latest runs available Wednesday afternoon, with landfall intensities for Hermine ranging from 75 - 80 mph—Category 1 hurricane strength. NHC is going with a forecast of a high-end 70 mph tropical storm at landfall. The Gulf Coast of Florida is highly vulnerable to large storm surges, due to the extensive stretch of shallow continental shelf waters offshore that extend up to 90 miles from the coast. On Wednesday afternoon, NHC increased their maximum storm surge forecast to 4 - 6’ above ground along a stretch of the Florida coast to the right of where the center is expected to make landfall.

Track forecast for Hermine: a Florida Gulf Coast landfall, followed by a run up the Southeast coast
The latest Wednesday morning runs of our top models are in solid agreement that Hermine will make landfall along the Florida Big Bend coast north of Tampa on Thursday evening. In their 5 pm EDT Wednesday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC’s highest odds for getting tropical storm force winds of 34+ mph from Hermine along the Gulf Coast of Florida were 76%, 74%, and 64%, respectively, for Apalachicola, St. Marks and Panama City, Florida.

After landfall, Hermine will begin transitioning to a powerful extratropical storm as it sweeps northeastward along the coast, and begin deriving energy from atmospheric dynamics, rather than from the heat energy of the ocean. This extra energy source should allow Hermine to maintain tropical storm intensity as it traverses the Southeast U.S. In their 5 pm EDT Wednesday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave odds of at least 25% for tropical storm-force winds affecting the entire U.S. coast from northern Florida to Delaware, including Washington D.C.


Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall between August 29 - and 6:08 pm EDT August 31, 2016 from the Tampa radar. Swaths of 2 - 4” of rain (yellow colors) were common over Florida, with 4 - 6” near Tampa.

Extremely rich moisture available to Hermine
Near record-warm ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are evaporating near-record amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere for Hermine to feed off of. At 8 am EDT Wednesday, the upper-air balloon sounding at Tampa, Florida measured 2.5” of total precipitable water (TPW)—the amount of water that would result if one condensed all the water vapor in a column above and precipitated it out. This value ranked in the upper 1% of all TPW measurements taken at the site since 1948. According to the National Weather Service, Tampa’s all-time greatest precipitable water sounding was 2.85” on September 6, 2004, when Hurricane Frances was crossing Florida (though SPC lists one higher value around 3.1”, year unknown). TPW values close to that record level were analyzed by satellite over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday afternoon, so it is possible Tampa may challenge its TPW record in the next day or two (thanks go to Sheldon Kusselson for some of these links).

Very heavy rains have already occurred in many locations across Florida with Hermine. A more concentrated band of 2” - 6” rains, with local totals perhaps exceeding 10”, can be expected across far northern Florida and far southeast Georgia as Hermine moves ashore. Beyond that point, the divergent model guidance keeps us guessing, but there is a good chance of very heavy rain along the Southeast coast, perhaps extending into central parts of the Carolinas. If Hermine approaches the mid-Atlantic coast and slows as much as some model runs are predicting, very heavy rains are possible in the Delmarva area (Delaware, eastern Maryland, and eastern Virginia). This area could extend north over the holiday weekend depending on Hermine’s eventual track.

Figure 3. Rainfall totals from Hurricane Agnes, which slogged through the eastern United States in late June 1972.Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.
 

In June 1972, Hurricane Agnes (only briefly a hurricane) took a largely-inland track from the Florida Panhandle into the mid-Atlantic, then moved back offshore before a second landfall near New York City. As it interacted with a strong midlatitude trough, Agnes produced massive flooding, at least 128 deaths, and $3 billion in damage (1972 dollars), making it the most expensive U.S. hurricane on record up to that point. The point is not that Hermine would mirror Agnes precisely (the upper-level forecasts are far from identical, and Agnes was much larger than Hermine), but that even a minimal hurricane or tropical storm that spends much of its life inland can cause huge amounts of rain if it moves very slowly or interacts with other weather features. We will need to be ready for a potentially significant rain/flood event if Hermine decides to slow significantly and hang out near the U.S. East Coast.

A weakening Madeline edges toward Hawaii
Hawaii’s Big Island is catching a break as Hurricane Madeline—a Category 4 storm at its peak— has been losing much of its power en route to the island. Located about 95 miles southeast of Hilo at 5 pm EDT (10 am HST) Wednesday, Madeline has weakened dramatically over the last 24 hours, with top sustained winds now down to minimal hurricane strength, 75 mph. That trend is expected to continue until Madeline is safely past Hawaii, although some restrengthening is possible as Madeline approaches Johnston Atoll. Northeast winds were gusting to 30-35 mph just after 11 am HST at Discovery Harbor, near the south tip of the Big Island. At an airport near Waimea (elevation 2600 feet), storm force winds of 43 mph, gusting to 52 mph, were reported.


Figure 4. Rainbands arc around the center of Madeline, well southeast of the Big Island, at 1716Z (5:16 pm EDT and 11:16 am HST) Wednesday, August 31, 2016.

Madeline is moving just south of due west at 13 mph, a trajectory that should take it south of the Big Island but within 100 miles of it. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the islands of Hawaii, Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe. Even the weakened version of Madeline could deliver quite a punch to Hawaii, especially the Big Island. Surf as high as 25 feet can be expected along the Big Island’s east- and south-facing coastlines. Torrential rains could lead to flooding and mudslides in some locations as Madeline’s winds slam against the Big Island’s mountainous terrain. Rainfall amounts could exceed 15” along east-facing slopes.

The best place to find frequently updated local statements on Madeline’s expected impact is at a dedicated website maintained by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu. See our Wednesday morning post for more background on Hawaii’s hurricane history and what the future may have in store.


Figure 5. Enhanced infrared image of Hurricane Madeline (left) and Hurricane Lester (right) at 2013Z (4:13 pm EDT and 10:13 am HST) Wednesday, August 31, 2016. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Category 4 Lester still a threat to Hawaii
About 1000 miles east of Hilo, Hurricane Lester continues to blast the open ocean with top sustained winds of 130 mph as of the 5 pm EDT advisory from NHC. (Advisories on Lester will be issued by CPHC starting at 11 pm EDT, as the hurricane moves west of 140°W into that agency’s area of responsibility.). Computer models agree that Lester’s westward path will start bending toward the west-northwest by Thursday, with the hurricane gradually weakening as it encounters greater wind shear and waters churned up by Madeline. The NHC outlook has Lester as a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday, as it approaches the longitude of the Big Island.


Figure 6. The official NHC forecast track of Hurricane Lester as of 2100Z (5:00 pm EDT) Wednesday.

Models agree that Lester should parallel the Hawaiian island chain as it moves west-northwest, but they disagree on how close it may come to the state. The 12Z Wednesday runs of the GFS and UKMET models bring Lester very near Oahu and Kauai on Sunday. The 12Z ECMWF keeps the storm about 100-200 miles north of the islands, as do the HWRF and GFDL models. Lester will most likely be a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane by this point. One positive factor is that a track north of the islands would put them on the weaker left-hand (south) side of Lester, reducing the potential impact. Huge surf is a safe bet.

It’s still uncertain exactly how close Lester’s path will be to Hawaii, especially Oahu, so residents throughout the state need to keep tabs on this powerful storm. On Wednesday afternoon, the NCAR/NSF Gulfstream-V jet was gathering data on the environment around Lester. The data will feed into the next round of computer model guidance (00Z Thursday), hopefully giving us more clarity on Lester’s weekend track.


Figure 7. The NCAR/NSF Gulfstream-V is assisting in high-altitude hurricane monitoring acoss the Atlantic and Pacific through mid-October while NOAA’s Gulfstream-IV undergoes unscheduled maintenance. Image credit: UCAR, photo by Carlye Calvin.

Links
Regional Hawaii radar
Mauna Kea weather (elevation 13,796’)
Weather on Mauna Kea
Live stream from KHON2 TV in Honolulu
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
2-km resolution WRF model output from the University of Hawaii for Hawaii
Storm surge maps for Oahu
Storm info from Tropical Tidbits
NWS Honolulu


Figure 8. MODIS visible satellite image of Invest 92L on Wednesday morning, August 31, 2016. The tropical wave was embedded in a large area of African dust to its west and north. Image credit: NASA.

92L off the coast of Africa embedded in dry air
A large tropical wave with plenty of spin that emerged from the coast of Africa on Monday was designated Invest 92L by NHC, but NHC is no longer issuing their suite of model forecasts for the system, due to the system’s lack of potential for development. The wave was just west of the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday, and was embedded in a major area of dust and dry air from the Sahara Desert. This dry air will greatly interfere with development over the coming days as 92L heads west at 15 - 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. The latest 12Z Wednesday runs of our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, European and UKMET models—had one of the three, the UKMET, showing development of the system over the next five days. A strong and persistent ridge of high pressure should keep 92L on a fairly straightforward west to west-northwest path, and the storm will likely move through or just north of the Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday. In their 2 pm EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC reduced their 2-day and 5-day development odds to 0% and 30%, respectively.

We’ll be back with a new post late Thursday morning.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters
TD9 Sunset - St Augustine FL
TD9 Sunset - St Augustine FL
Beautiful sunset and interesting clouds form in-between periods of sunshine and rain as Tropical Depression Nine advances. Today's watches and warnings included flood, strong surf and riptide.
stormy night
stormy night
Stormy nights

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

it has already increased in speed 30 mph since 11am yesterday
1002. Ed22
Quoting 937. Silvershad:

Looks like we have some hurricane force flight level winds and quickly dropping central pressure.


Rapidly strengthening mode Hermine is in now, pressure now 993 mbs; interesting!!
1003. WxLogic
Hermine hugging the western periphery of the Bermuda High. You can see how is using the the 588 DM Heights as a "guide" to move around the ridge or least try to:

1004. nash36
Charleston NWS:

Confidence continues to grow in regards to the exact impacts, and
the locations of the impacts from Tropical Storm Hermine to our
area. The official from NHC makes landfall in the Big Bend area of
Florida or near Apalachicola late Thursday night before tracking
further inland through southeast GA/southern SC Friday/early Friday
night, before finally pulling out to the northeast away from the
region before daybreak Saturday. The official forecast from NHC
coincides well with both the ECMWF and to the GFS models. However,
remember that it is vital not to focus on the exact forecast
track, as forecast movement, direction and speed are only
estimates. Even small errors can mean major differences in where
the worst conditions will occur. Also, remember impacts can extend
far from the center of the storm.

The primary forecast concerns and challenges are tropical storm
force winds (39 mph or greater), excessive rainfall with possible
flash flooding, and isolated tornadoes. Little to no inundation is
anticipated due to storm surge.

Winds: Hermine had been stuck in a fairly nebulous steering pattern
and it hadn`t lifted too far north since yesterday. But that is
beginning to change as a mid level trough extending from the
southeast into the northern Gulf of Mexico is starting to finally
pick up Hermine and this will allow it to pull northeast over or
near the area during Friday. Increased shear aloft and frictional
effects from land will cause the system to weaken some as it heads
into closer proximity of the CWFA. However, it will only diminish
slightly in strength, most likely due to the storm being driven more
by barotropic processes. That along with the strongest winds to
occur on the right side of Hermine, tropical storm force winds of 39
mph or stronger are likely to occur over a large swath of our
counties. Enough so that a Tropical Storm Warning has been raised
for all land zones and marine zones. Expect at least some damage
to weak structures and to weak trees, along with the potential for
isolated power outages. It should be noted that the loss of purely
tropical characteristics will have no bearing on the actual
impacts from the storm.

Rainfall: The area that receives the greatest rainfall, and the
associated flash flood risk that comes with it, will depend largely
on the exact path of Hermine. However, based on input from
surrounding WFO`s we have raised a Flash Flood watch for all
counties from 6 am Friday to 2 am Saturday. (See the HYDRO section
below for more information).

Tornadoes: Strong low level wind fields to the northeast and east of
the center of Hermine will prevail Friday into Friday evening. Given
0-1 km bulk shear of 30 kt, 0-1 km helicity of 300-400 m2/sec2 there
would be a risk for isolated tornadoes and discrete cells that
occurring the stronger rainbands. However, they would tend to be short
tracked and short lived, but enough where SPC has denoted a slight
risk in our area.
1005. ncstorm
Quoting 996. Sfloridacat5:



HRRR is not a tropical model. I would stick with the NHC forecast.


Im pretty sure my statements didnt say go with the HRRR model..It also didnt say refer to it rather than the NHC forecast..

Next time you spout something from TWC as you always do I'll just let you know they aren't the NHC either and to stop watching it..







Baynews9 was just saying there is a good chance of tropical storm force winds... also the winds will be out of south flooding Bayshore and the normal spots... heavy rain etc to come in mid afternoon onward, and rain won't be done until Sunday...

Quoting 910. Bucsboltsfan:



Looking at that blob and the direction of the storm, surprises me they are not expecting any tropical storm conditions in Tampa Bay. Pretty strong winds extend well out east and south of the center.
1007. Ed22
Quoting 966. PlazaRed:


So if we have winds up to 80 knots and a preasure of 994, then is this technically a hurricane now?
I'm saying the same thing too.
1008. Michfan
Quoting 992. nash36:

Good morning, all.

Busy day on WU, today.


This is a nice storm to wake up to and finally some stable recon readings with a path laid out. It is about time. I still say Cedar Key. :)
Quoting 1007. Ed22:

I'm saying the same thing too.


pressure is at 992.....
18 hours (or so) until landfall.
We will most likely see a 75 mph (CAT1) Hurricane at landfall tonight.

If it stays one-sided that will be pretty amazing in itself. If you look at the wind map, Hermine doesn't have much wind at all on the west side.
1011. elioe
So, the sustained winds of Hermine are assessed at 65 mph. I guess it's extrapolated from flight-level winds since all of the surface readings seem to have been during rain. But given maximum flight-level winds of about 70 kt, I think surface winds could be 70 mph as well. About 18 hours until landfall. Mesoscale and hurricane-specific models generally support a central pressure of 980 mbar by that time. Although, given the recent rate of deepening, 975 mbar might be also realistic. My guess for winds at landfall is 90 mph.
LinkCylone Oz Animation!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDGgPXsMvuE
1013. mfcmom
Good morning from Panama City. Small sigh of relief here, but praying for those east of us. Hoping it doesn't turn into Cat 2. Be safe everyone.
1014. 900MB
Quoting 1007. Ed22:

I'm saying the same thing too.


Those are flight level winds. Take 10mph off. So, highest reading is a hurricane, but if it is only one they may discount. But, I think this is the worst time to understate.
Quoting 995. ncstorm:



yeah I mentioned that part when referring to the HH readings..

Im looking at TWC now and they are having Jim Cantore to retract his updated advisories..


Stephanie Abrahms took the blame for it. She's dramatic as he is
Panama city here as well. Still watching Hermine closely. We will be getting some bad bands through here at the least. I have to go in to work later, hope the flooding doesn't get too bad. I work on the bay so I should get some good pictures at least.
Good morning from Jacksonville Florida
Watching and waiting..
1018. Ed22
Quoting 1011. elioe:

So, the sustained winds of Hermine are assessed at 65 mph. I guess it's extrapolated from flight-level winds since all of the surface readings seem to have been during rain. But given maximum flight-level winds of about 70 kt, I think surface winds could be 70 mph as well. About 18 hours until landfall. Mesoscale and hurricane-specific models generally support a central pressure of 980 mbar by that time. Although, given the recent rate of deepening, 975 mbar might be also realistic. My guess for winds at landfall is 90 mph.
agree but winds I say 100 mph
1019. MahFL
Quoting 1017. pocoehonda:

Good morning from Jacksonville Florida
Watching and waiting..


Good morning from Orange Park.

TAMPA TRIGGERED
1021. IKE
buoy42003 has gust to 63 mph
1024. IKE
Looks like a hint of an eye on visible. Need more frames.
1025. ariot
Quoting 997. typhoonty:

I will be perfectly blunt in my assessment of my alma mater. FSU is the first school I am sure to hold classes during a hurricane warning. I don't know why FSU is so adamant about not canceling classes. It's as if they think having 15000 or so frantic students trying to get home in tropical storm conditions is an ok thing. Mark my words, if FSU does not close by 3PM, someone will probably be injured or killed as a direct result of FSU's neglectful decision making.

Absolutely unheard of, USF doesn't have classes and they aren't even under a tropical storm watch!


In this region, there are many organizations that have a dominionist line of thinking. It's largely a leftover from another era. But, that plus the idea of being rugged appeals to many. Many of us who grew up in the deep south can remember hurricane parties. Those people who were throwing those parties in Fredric or other storms from the late 70s and early 80s -- they are in charge now.

Science can tell them there is a risk, but they will ignore it. And if the best forecast is not accurate, and the risk vanishes, it will reinforce their way of thinking.
if this makes landfall tonight around midnight in Big Bend area, all the forecasts I'm looking at through various websites from NOAA etc, show very windy conditions in Gulf offshore of Tampa all day Friday, can someone explain further to a newbie like myself? I appreciate the info, from Manatee County FL
Quoting 1015. hurrikanehunter14:



Stephanie Abrahms took the blame for it. She's dramatic as he is


Stephanie Abrahams = ranting dingbat! When she comes on UGH! I switch channels. What she knows about hurricanes you can put in a pin head.
1028. Ed22
Quoting 1014. 900MB:



Those are flight level winds. Take 10mph off. So, highest reading is a hurricane, but if it is only one they may discount. But, I think this is the worst time to understate.
remember the environment where Hermine is in is favourable for that rapid intensification so I'm not ruling out cat: 2 just yet.
Hermine is doing well for all the dry air on its NW Side. Area of TS winds expanded out to 140 miles a little

sooner than originally forecast. Overall GFS has handled this storm very well.
appears the shield of rain/wind that's off the west coast of FL approaching Sarasota/Manatee/Pinellas won't actually make it to shore in those areas and instead those spots will see mainly scattered storms today instead of yesterday's total washout.
Good Morning from Quincy a little to the West of Tallahassee and reporting on this morning's events.

Local news did a nice job starting at 5:30 am advising folks in the Big Bend of the current hurricane warnings and being frank that it is going to get rough overnight with respect to potential hurricane force gusts and large amounts of rain well inland into Tallahassee; trees coming down are a big concern and locals are anticipating a Kate like scenario like in 85 with power lines down in several pockets. Those who were here for Kate said that tornadoes were the biggest issue.

The Wall Mart closest to me in North Tallahassee already had folks streaming in by 6:00 when I went in to get batteries and canned goods and the parking lot was filling up as I was leaving.

In my neighborhood, which is an older one with wooden homes and large oaks and pines everywhere, to the North of Tallahassee, no neighbors are boarding up like in South Florida but concerned about the trees. I am boarding up the large picture windows around the house later this afternoon.

My work-mates here in Quincy, with homes on the coast around Alligator Point just advised that they boarded up last night and later today but expecting storm surge to wash out part of their backyards as in past storm events (Dennis). We just got notice that work is closing down at Noon today and closed tomorrow.

I will check back in later if I can but good luck to everyone in North Florida and please remember the danger of falling trees and branches and downed power lines during and after the storm. Park you vehicles and boats inside or away from trees this afternoon, and be mindful of not letting kids (or yourselves) go outside running around the yard once tress and power lines come down.

Godspeed to everyone impacted by this one and stay off the roads tomorrow until they are cleared out and be mindful of flash flooding.
1032. IKE
Hermine would have to move NE from now to landfall at Cedar Key. Ain't happening.
Hermine doesn't have any eye type feature just yet.
Quoting 1022. canehater1:


About 3/4th of an eyewall there.
Quoting 1027. HurriHistory:



Stephanie Abrahams = ranting dingbat! When she comes on UGH! I switch channels. What she knows about hurricanes you can put in a pin head.


She used to be so much better when I was younger. around the age of 10 in the 04 and 05 seasons. Then something went horribly wrong.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1037. Michfan
Quoting 1032. IKE:

Hermine would have to move NE from now to landfall at Cedar Key. Ain't happening.


Oh i know. I am just sticking to my guns from last night. I need some crow for breakfast. In all honesty i think it will follow the HWRF track and hit right at Apalachee Bay. I think we may see a wobble or two here or there but not by much due to its rapid strengthening.
Quoting 1027. HurriHistory:



Stephanie Abrahams = ranting dingbat! When she comes on UGH! I switch channels. What she knows about hurricanes you can put in a pin head.

Sounds like she would fit in well with most everyone on here then lol
Quoting 1024. IKE:

Looks like a hint of an eye on visible. Need more frames.


You better make sure. We had the "I see an eye" yesterday morning with a one sided Tropical Storm.
Quoting 1024. IKE:

Looks like a hint of an eye on visible. Need more frames.


Looks like dry air eating away at the western part of system. That's what I see. But more time to tell.
Good morning from a very soggy Longboat Key! We received over 7 inches of rain yesterday, but we're getting a nice break this morning before the next round starts.
Quoting 997. typhoonty:
I will be perfectly blunt in my assessment of my alma mater. FSU is the first school I am sure to hold classes during a hurricane warning. I don't know why FSU is so adamant about not canceling classes. It's as if they think having 15000 or so frantic students trying to get home in tropical storm conditions is an ok thing. Mark my words, if FSU does not close by 3PM, someone will probably be injured or killed as a direct result of FSU's neglectful decision making.

Absolutely unheard of, USF doesn't have classes and they aren't even under a tropical storm watch!


With as far as Tallahassee is inland they won't be seeing Hurricane conditions until late tonight if they see Hurricane conditions at all. The center is roughly 300 miles still from Tallahassee. My guess is the college's weather department will monitor it and make the correct call on when to close for the day.
FSU TO CLOSE AT NOON THURSDAY
Based on the latest storm prediction information, the Florida State University main campus will close at noon today, September 1, 2016. Classes are canceled for this afternoon and Friday, and faculty and staff will be released at noon today. Based on the current forecast from the National Hurricane Center, tropical storm conditions are not expected to reach our area until sometime Thursday evening. (Posted 8:30 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 1, 2016)
1044. beell
Telltale fanning out of the upper level cirrus on water vapor over the FL/AL/GA border area, marks the very early beginnings of the baroclinic process for Hermine as the upper level shortwave and jet approach from the west. This scenario has been mentioned by the NHC in several forecast discussions.


Static water vapor loop


06Z GFS 200 mb heights, winds-valid 8AM EDT
Quoting 1017. pocoehonda:

Good morning from Jacksonville Florida
Watching and waiting..


Good morning from South end of Jacksonville!
1046. hydrus
<
1047. hydrus
1048. GatorWX
Starting to wrap around?