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Gulf of Mexico's 93L a Heavy Rain Threat; Ana Leaves Hawaii Alone

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:25 PM GMT on October 21, 2014

An area of low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche (93L) contains moisture and spin from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Trudy, which made landfall near Acapulco last weekend. 93L will bring heavy rains to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida Wednesday through Friday. Satellite loops show the low has a moderate degree of spin and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, but these thunderstorms are poorly organized, due to high wind shear of 30 knots. Mexican radar out of Altamira does show at least one spiral band had formed near the coast Tuesday morning, though. Water vapor satellite images show there is dry air from Mexico flowing eastwards over the western Gulf of Mexico, which is likely slowing development. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are very warm, about 29.5°C. The 8 am EDT Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Wednesday - Friday, giving 93L a better chance to develop then. The Tuesday morning runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, all showed support for some slow development of 93L this week. The storm is likely to move slowly eastwards across the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday and Wednesday, cross over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, move through the Florida Straits between Cuba and South Florida on Friday, then into the Bahamas on Saturday. Along its path, 3 - 6" of rain are are likely--with higher rainfall amounts to be expected if 93L ends up developing into a tropical depression. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 40% and 50%, respectively. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 93L Tuesday afternoon, but may be cancelled.

The prospects of 93L developing into a damaging hurricane are very low, and this storm is primarily a heavy rain threat. However, both the GFS and European models show the possibility that the trough of low pressure expected to pick up 93L and pull it northeastwards out to sea this weekend may leave behind an area of spin in the Western Caribbean early next week that would potentially have the capability to develop into a more dangerous tropical cyclone than 93L. It's too early to be sold on this model solution yet, but we should pay attention to the evolution of this storm system over the coming week.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 93L in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 5-day period ending Sunday, October 26, 2014. 93L is predicted to bring rainfall amounts of up to five inches to South Florida. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Eastern Atlantic disturbance 92L little threat
A large non-tropical low pressure system spinning in the Eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Azores Islands (92L) brought heavy rains and flash flooding that killed five people in the Canary Islands on Sunday. This low is headed slowly westwards into a region with higher wind shear, and should not affect any more land areas. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10%.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Ana brushing the Hawaiian Islands at 7:55 pm EDT on Monday October 20, 2014. At the time, Ana had top winds of 65 mph, and high wind shear had allowed the surface circulation to be exposed to view. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall from the Molokai radar for Hurricane Ana shows that extreme rains of 15+" fell just 20 miles off the coast from Honolulu.

Tropical Storm Ana headed away from Hawaii
Tropical Storm Ana is headed northwestwards away from the Hawaiian Islands; all watches and warnings have been dropped for the main Hawaiian Islands. Heavy rains of 4.72" fell in Honolulu from Ana, and widespread rain amounts of 4 - 7" were reported on Oahu. The island was very fortunate, though, since a large area of 15+" of rain fell just 20 miles offshore, according to radar estimates. Satellite loops on Tuesday morning showed that Ana was having trouble with high wind shear, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view. Ana will turn north and then northeast over the next few days and gradually weaken over cooler waters, without affecting any other land areas.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

GFS says "trick or treat"
Quoting 446. CybrTeddy:



I don't think so, we've seen similar storms survive a crossing over the Yucatan and come out relatively intact as the result of the Yucatan's flat terrain (although usually in the other direction). I suspect 09L will get into the western Caribbean and die out due to shear and, consequently, severe dry air intrusion.
Well if its going to die I want rain here in northern Honduras.
Quoting 498. Drakoen:

No you're posting inaccurate information. "Bearing down on Florida" when the system is in Cuba?


Bearing down as in heading for FL this run again.
When people wake up here in the morning they will be very surprised. I mentioned this system yesterday to a few of my friends and they had not even heard of it. A Western approach to Grand Cayman would be a serious issue for the 7 mile beach, the port and the capitol which all face West. Not many systems have come here from that direction so hopefully this stays weak in our area if it is still a cyclone at that time.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Look at this outflow with 09L. Yikes!


So this storm remains at 997 millibars from hour 144 to hour 168? Yikes indeed.
The GFS 850 mb vorticity fields show a weak vortmax entering the western Caribbean around the time the front leaves 09L behind on that model, in association with a weak tropical wave now east of the Lesser Antilles. At the very least we should watch out for the possibility of very heavy rains in the western Caribbean region for the next several days, but all of this talk of anything happening beyond five days is absurd.
976mb. WOW!

2014 will be the year of The Great Halloween Hurricane
Quoting 505. sar2401:

So this storm remains at 997 millibars from hour 144 to hour 168? Yikes indeed.


LOL! 980mb

Quoting 507. StormTrackerScott:

976mb. WOW!




YIKES!!!
Quoting 506. KoritheMan:

The GFS 850 mb vorticity fields show a weak vortmax entering the western Caribbean around the time the front leaves 09L behind on that model, in association with a weak tropical wave now east of the Lesser Antilles. At the very least we should watch out for the possibility of very heavy rains in the western Caribbean region for the next several days, but all of this talk of anything happening beyond five days is absurd.
Will see If I can finally get my storm. If Caribboy could get Gonzalo then I want possible Hanna.
Funny people aren't taking it serious like this can't happen or won't happen when the fact is this is a possibility given the ripe conditions across the NW Caribbean this weekend and early next week.


Now if this was in the W-Pac then we would have several bloggers on here the same one's downcasting now hype casting this in the Pacific.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


What makes you think that? 00z SHIPS data shows 700-500 MB RH being 39% by 108 hours. That's pretty dry, if you ask me.

That's just a model. It's different than what "some" think....
Quoting 512. StormTrackerScott:

Funny people aren't taking it serious like this can't happen or won't happen when the fact is this is a possibility given the ripe conditions across the NW Caribbean this weekend and early next week.



That's what happens on a slow season, everyone will let their guard down and not pay attention.
Quoting 514. mcluvincane:


That's what happens on a slow season, everyone will let their guard down and not pay attention.


Hurricane Kate comes to mind from the 80's. Hit near Thanksgiving and caught many off guard in FL when it hit as a cat 2.
Quoting 512. StormTrackerScott:

Funny people aren't taking it serious like this can't happen or won't happen when the fact is this is a possibility given the ripe conditions across the NW Caribbean this weekend and early next week.



Anything's a possibility, but until that possibility becomes anything more than speculation, why even entertain it?

That's a REALLY good way to quickly destroy your personal credibility as a forecaster.
I guess I will get off to bed now. May need my rest for the next few nights if this thing holds together and tracks this way.

Back tomorrow. Have a nice evening
985mb near Tampa.

Scott..I hope you don't mind but I'm going to "hype" with you..

120 hours Navgem 00z

Quoting 515. StormTrackerScott:



Hurricane Kate comes to mind from the 80's. Hit near Thanksgiving and caught many off guard in FL when it hit as a cat 2.


Wow, that was a late one for sure!
Quoting 478. StormTrackerScott:

Looking like the streak of no hurricanes hitting FL could run out early next week. I think we are at 3 thousand something days of no hurricanes making landfall in FL.




Calm down, If this does become a hurricane, it's still 7-9 days from any kind of landfall. Wait till under 5 days
Next Wednesday

florida is a rat race with a large influx of population past ten yrs. evac.s are no fun. could we have widespread panic?
I like that mcluvincane...The Great Halloween Hurricane of 2014.
And like with Wilma the cold air follows in the behind the system. Notice the 540 line

132 hours
Quoting 511. allancalderini:

Will see If I can finally get my storm. If Caribboy could get Gonzalo then I want possible Hanna.


I'll root for you, okay?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


LOL! 980mb

Are there two different GFS models? Your post #480 at 144 hours shows 997 mbs. Your post #486 and # 495 shows 997 mbs at 168 hours. Now you have one at 156 hours that shows 980 mbs at hour 156? Doesn't that seem a little...odd...to you?
Quoting 529. sar2401:
Are there two different GFS models? Your post #480 at 144 hours shows 997 mbs. Your post #486 and # 495 shows 997 mbs at 168 hours. Now you have one at 156 hours that shows 980 mbs at hour 156? Doesn't that seem a little...odd...to you?


It's high resolution Sar.
Quoting kmanislander:
When people wake up here in the morning they will be very surprised. I mentioned this system yesterday to a few of my friends and they had not even heard of it. A Western approach to Grand Cayman would be a serious issue for the 7 mile beach, the port and the capitol which all face West. Not many systems have come here from that direction so hopefully this stays weak in our area if it is still a cyclone at that time.

Yep I gearing up for it

And the guy up at met office knows and Red Cross hazard management know
Some of us that talk and looked into it thinks NHc is downplaying intensity in long term
But let's see

Quoting 529. sar2401:

Are there two different GFS models? Your post #480 at 144 hours shows 997 mbs. Your post #486 and # 495 shows 997 mbs at 168 hours. Now you have one at 156 hours that shows 980 mbs at hour 156? Doesn't that seem a little...odd...to you?
As long as there is some type of system bearing down on Florida who cares about the details.
Quoting 524. islander101010:

florida is a rat race with a large influx of population past ten yrs. evac.s are no fun. could we have widespread panic?


Widespread panic over... what, exactly? A modeled hurricane?

Urge to leave this place is rising. My leave WU meter is now up to 75/100. Only 25 more.
Quoting 529. sar2401:
Are there two different GFS models? Your post #480 at 144 hours shows 997 mbs. Your post #486 and # 495 shows 997 mbs at 168 hours. Now you have one at 156 hours that shows 980 mbs at hour 156? Doesn't that seem a little...odd...to you?


Ok I painted the model and manipulated it. "Come on man"
Tampa? I'll be damned! Hope for the best
Quoting kmanislander:
I guess I will get off to bed now. May need my rest for the next few nights if this thing holds together and tracks this way.

Back tomorrow. Have a nice evening

I here you mate
See YA tomorrow
Just did a late night blog update on the Atlantic tropics. it covers....

1. Where to get updated satellite data in lieu of the outage on www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php. Please note that satellite images on that site are now more than 24 hours old!
2. An in-depth discussion on 92-L and newly-formed TD 9.
Quoting 529. sar2401:

Are there two different GFS models? Your post #480 at 144 hours shows 997 mbs. Your post #486 and # 495 shows 997 mbs at 168 hours. Now you have one at 156 hours that shows 980 mbs at hour 156? Doesn't that seem a little...odd...to you?


I thought the same thing. It seems his GFS is about as flip-floppity as Charlie Crist
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It's high resolution Sar.
I understand that. Because it's high resolution, you believe that the pressure is actually going to be that much different for the same hour period? Or do you think the GFS may just get a little wonky about such things that far out? Beyond three days, no model is any good with intensity. But, you have fun with it. Just don't get all huffy when people want to know when the hurricane is coming and why it's not here yet.
As of right now, this system Is suppose to be still in the Caribbean 5-6 days from now still. Any landfall is still 7-9 days from now in Florida (if at all). Peeps need to follow the short term forecasting 3-5 days with a blend of the GFS-Euro. You've seen all year and for many years that models after a few days out will change each model run.

For now, just compare the GFS-Euro out to 5 days. After that, don't take that much stock into it.
Quoting 539. Sharkicane:



I thought the same thing. It seems his GFS is about as flip-floppity as Charlie Crist


Know how to read the models!
156 hours
Quoting KoritheMan:


Widespread panic over... what, exactly? A modeled hurricane?

Urge to leave this place is rising. My leave WU meter is now up to 75/100. Only 25 more.
My meter just pegged out. See you down the road, after the destructive hurricane has demolished Florida.
Quoting 542. scottsvb:

As of right now, this system Is suppose to be still in the Caribbean 5-6 days from now still. Any landfall is still 7-9 days from now in Florida (if at all). Peeps need to follow the short term forecasting 3-5 days with a blend of the GFS-Euro. You've seen all year and for many years that models after a few days out will change each model run.

For now, just compare the GFS-Euro out to 5 days. After that, don't take that much stock into it.


Actually, the CMC has been almost spot on sniffing these systems out before the GFS and EURO
Quoting 547. mcluvincane:



Actually, the CMC has been almost spot on sniffing these systems out before the GFS and EURO


CMC stinks... it changes every run.

Quoting 533. KoritheMan:



Widespread panic over... what, exactly? A modeled hurricane?

Urge to leave this place is rising. My leave WU meter is now up to 75/100. Only 25 more.
I feel the same way. It's ridiculous really. When the ECMWF starts taking note of this I will pay attention, but until then I see no reason to.
Hey where is Pat, Grothar, and rest of the gang? I guess it is kind of late and nothing of imminent threat at the moment, unless you are on the leeward facing side of the Yucatan Peninsula.

NCHurricane2009: Here is a good link to add to your collection Latest Satellite Imagery from ERAU

Quoting 549. Drakoen:

I feel the same way. It's ridiculous really. When the ECMWF starts taking note of this I will pay attention, but until then I see no reason to.


coming from somebody that was all over the N FL snowstorm when the Euro wasn't. Ok. Whatever
What is with the intense hypecasting of this TD? My god some of you are acting like it's going to bomb out like Katrina and smash into Tampa destroying half of Florida in the process. It hasn't even made it past the /very/ mountainous Yucatan Peninsula yet.
Does anyone know if the satellite services division (SSD) is gonna fix their data? Any bulletins anywhere? They should at least post that the satellite images on all affected sites are outdated so people understand they are looking at something outdated so they don't get misinformed about the current state of weather systems. Unbelievable!

Quoting 551. StormTrackerScott:



coming from somebody that was all over the N FL snowstorm when the Euro wasn't. Ok. Whatever
Every storm in here you hype out to the maximum. You've lost all credibility as far as i'm concerned. If you want to go back you can see that the ECMWF did show snow in North Florida which did happen in isolated places. Many places saw sleet.
Quoting 552. Ryuujin:

What is with the intense hypecasting of this TD? My god some of you are acting like it's going to bomb out like Katrina and smash into Tampa destroying half of Florida in the process. It hasn't even made it past the /very/ mountainous Yucatan Peninsula yet.


They are called WundergroundNewbs... lol
Quoting 555. scottsvb:



They are called WundergroundNewbs... lol


I'm not even a met student yet (taking my GED in January, though, then I'm gonna start down that path) and I STILL think more meteorologically inclined than most people here, some of whom are even self-professed met students.
Pre-Wilma/Katrina/Charley


Quoting 550. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hey where is Pat, Grothar, and rest of the gang? I guess it is kind of late and nothing of imminent threat at the moment, unless you are on the leeward facing side of the Yucatan Peninsula.

NCHurricane2009: Here is a good link to add to your collection Latest Satellite Imagery from ERAU



Thanks GT for this other satellite page!
Some are getting fooled by long term model runs again, cool. How many times does it take to learn from the false alarms, don't people want to learn and understand modeling more?
Quoting Jedkins01:
Some are getting fooled by long term model runs again, cool. How many times does it take to learn from the false alarms, don't people want to learn and understand modeling more?


They don't care. They want to look at those model runs and go "DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM" and flail around in the hopes they are right so they can point and go "SEEEEE SEEEE I Told you FIRST!" And beam proudly for their accomplishment.
Quoting 556. KoritheMan:



I'm not even a met student yet (taking my GED in January, though, then I'm gonna start down that path) and I STILL think more meteorologically inclined than most people here, some of whom are even self-professed met students.


There are some good peeps in here and others that are wanting to learn or know what is going on... but the newb part is the same people that constantly (over years being on here) start hypeing systems that are not developed or look at model runs a week out to 2 weeks away....then get upset when the next model run shows nothing. Not to say this won't.. it has a good chance, but to know where this is going after Sunday is just crazy. It depends on what is developed down there by Sunday and what the pattern is across the U.S. and western atlantic.
Quoting KoritheMan:
It's been a fun ride. I've made a few decent friends here whom I keep contact with on Facebook, and even some with whom I don't HAVE on my Facebook. You know who you are.

After I hit 600 blog posts, I'm leaving. I intend to make a post detailing ways of how to contact me in that blog post, then you'll never see me again. Maybe I'll meet some of you years down the line when I become a met. I wouldn't be opposed to that.

So yeah. Enjoy me for these few days while you can. The ones who are glad I'm gone can **** off anyway.


Ah man, don't leave. You're one of the best posters here left.
Quoting 559. Jedkins01:

Some are getting fooled by long term model runs again, cool. How many times does it take to learn from the false alarms, don't people want to learn and understand modeling more?



I been telling that for years on here. It's like being a teacher.. you tell them and show them something and they just won't follow directions.
Quoting 561. Ryuujin:



They don't care. They want to look at those model runs and go "DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM" and flail around in the hopes they are right so they can point and go "SEEEEE SEEEE I Told you FIRST!" And beam proudly for their accomplishment.



correct.. they let excitement and hype outweigh meteorology
Quoting 561. Ryuujin:



They don't care. They want to look at those model runs and go "DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM" and flail around in the hopes they are right so they can point and go "SEEEEE SEEEE I Told you FIRST!" And beam proudly for their accomplishment.


I don't really understand the psychology behind why people get the kicks out of it. There's no satisfaction in that.
Quoting 559. Jedkins01:

Some are getting fooled by long term model runs again, cool. How many times does it take to learn from the false alarms, don't people want to learn and understand modeling more?

Modeling should be the last thing a forecaster looks at. The first thing should be the 850 mb. chart and working your way up, so you could see where there is a dewpoint depression good enough for moisture or convection later in the day. Then you read the NWS discussions and look at satellite and radar of the national picture and the local picture. You also look at the NHC to see of any tropical activity and the OPC for winds and waves and the forecast for tomorrow. After all that then you can look at model runs that go further out in time, but damn if the model can't get the initialization state correct then it's garbage the rest of the run.
Quoting 567. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Modeling should be the last thing a forecaster looks at. The first thing should be the 850 mb. chart and working your way up, so you could see where there is a dewpoint depression good enough for moisture or convection later in the day. Then you read the NWS discussions and look at satellite and radar of the national picture and the local picture. You also look at the NHC to see of any tropical activity and the OPC for winds and waves and the forecast for tomorrow. After all that then you can look at model runs that go further out in time, but damn if the model can't get the initialization state correct then it's garbage the rest of the run.


We look at everything in no particular order. If anything we cordinate with other NWS offices and do reviews of the current soundings with the crew that we are relieving.
.
I wonder where STS went with his hypecasting after many of the real informed posters suddenly started popping out of the woodwork. *sigh* It's so frustrating to watch people like that try and run off good folk. Weather forecasting is an in-exact science at the best of times and posting a GFS run (Which is what, the 18z?, which is a notoriously garbage run anyway, to hype up a potential storm? Just mind-boggling. GFS, by the by, started life as a cold weather forecasting tool, so it has a trough bias and seems to sees lows deeper than most other models. Don't know how many know that.
Kori you shouldn't let a few spoil your experience on the blog. I come here to post in my spare time and have fun and enjoy reading most peoples post, especially yours which is as sound and detailed as it gets. Please don't leave man, if you ever need to take a break from this blog then do it. I did it over the past weekend and now that I have come back on it seems more refreshing. Also, if some are ticking you off, then just ignore them man. I have a few on ignore. Take it from sar it saves from your blood pressure going up for no reason.
Quoting 556. KoritheMan:



I'm not even a met student yet (taking my GED in January, though, then I'm gonna start down that path) and I STILL think more meteorologically inclined than most people here, some of whom are even self-professed met students.

I've got a meteo minor (and that's about it)....my major is Mechanical Engineering (my minor was in case I decided to fall back onto meteorology if engineering didn't pan out well). Well it turns out engineering worked out pretty good for me...now I can afford 2 cars...one of which is a sporty convertible (FYI I wish their was a convertible car weather forecast that shaded the areas across the US where its safe to ride with the top down. If I made such a forecast...I'd shade the areas where the forecast highs are 60 or greater and precip probability is 10% or less)

Good luck on your GED! Are you planning on spinning off your own tropical blogging site if you leave WU....like Levi did with his tropical tidbits?
Quoting 567. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Modeling should be the last thing a forecaster looks at. The first thing should be the 850 mb. chart and working your way up, so you could see where there is a dewpoint depression good enough for moisture or convection later in the day. Then you read the NWS discussions and look at satellite and radar of the national picture and the local picture. You also look at the NHC to see of any tropical activity and the OPC for winds and waves and the forecast for tomorrow. After all that then you can look at model runs that go further out in time, but damn if the model can't get the initialization state correct then it's garbage the rest of the run.


Yeah, you're right, models shouldn't be the only thing a forecaster should use, nor should it be the first. The problem is that technology is way outpacing society's understanding of how it works and how to interpret/analyze it. People want technology to be a source of stimuli, not a learning tool. As soon as we use technology as handicap, rather than a learning tool, we get lazier, and thus it becomes a hindrance. Model forecasts are a tool, we can use them to our advantage to make smarter forecasts, so that we don't have to do all the tedious calculations, but do the thinking and analysis. But if we don't understand how models work, i.e. the governing relations behind a model, then it doesn't help us, but keeps us from learning. It just becomes a map with pretty colors and get's us excited.

Quoting sar2401:
I suspect your hurricane memory doesn't go back before 2000. From 1950 until 2000, there were only two "I" name storms retired, Ione in 1955 and Inez in 1966. Since 2001, there have been eight "I" names storms retired. I don't know why the "I" named storms suddenly turned so vicious over the last 14 years.

Hazel was no walk in the park either....
I work at the NWS office as well being an accredited meterologist because everything on the internet is true..

I have work in the AM..those donuts aren't going to bake by themselves..night all..
92L looks better organized tonight with a spot of convection developing just in the centre

Quoting 574. lat25five:


Hazel was no walk in the park either....

Maybe we've been able to identify more storms thanks to satellite technology....so these days now we are down to the letter "I" when we reach the climatological peak of the season when storms get ferocious? Perhaps this is why the letter "I" storms have been getting a bad rap these past years?
Kori, I'd like to see you try not to come on here when that Cat 4 is in the Gulf.
Quoting 572. NCHurricane2009:


I've got a meteo minor (and that's about it)....my major is Mechanical Engineering (my minor was in case I decided to fall back onto meteorology if engineering didn't pan out well). Well it turns out engineering worked out pretty good for me...now I can afford 2 cars...one of which is a sporty convertible (FYI I wish their was a convertible car weather forecast that shaded the areas across the US where its safe to ride with the top down. If I made such a forecast...I'd shade the areas where the forecast highs are 60 or greater and precip probability is 10% or less)

Good luck on your GED! Are you planning on spinning off your own tropical blogging site if you leave WU....like Levi did with his tropical tidbits?


If I leave WU I'm going to talk to SouthALWX, a good friend of mine who used to post here from 2008-2010. We're going to try doing a forecasting website together, free from bias and BS. Just science.

If I do that I'll definitely give you guys the link.
Quoting 577. NCHurricane2009:


Maybe we've been able to identify more storms thanks to satellite technology....so these days now we are down to the letter "I" when we reach the climatological peak of the season when storms get ferocious? Perhaps this is why the letter "I" storms have been getting a bad rap these past years?


Iraq, Iran etc.
Quoting 567. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Modeling should be the last thing a forecaster looks at. The first thing should be the 850 mb. chart and working your way up, so you could see where there is a dewpoint depression good enough for moisture or convection later in the day. Then you read the NWS discussions and look at satellite and radar of the national picture and the local picture. You also look at the NHC to see of any tropical activity and the OPC for winds and waves and the forecast for tomorrow. After all that then you can look at model runs that go further out in time, but damn if the model can't get the initialization state correct then it's garbage the rest of the run.


I agree but I would also suggest not reading the NWS discussions until AFTER you make a forecast. Otherwise there's potential for subliminal bias in the direction of whatever NWS subsidiary you read it from.
Quoting 579. opal92nwf:

Kori, I'd like to see you try not to come on here when that Cat 4 is in the Gulf.


Hello main blog...
it's been months I don't come here.

I was going to quote Kori about his "out of his mind" opting out of WU...
You just nailed Opal... definitely he will be here cranking us up
Quoting 560. KoritheMan:

It's been a fun ride. I've made a few decent friends here whom I keep contact with on Facebook, and even some with whom I DON'T have on my Facebook. You know who you are.


Yeah....never getting FB. Nope, nuh-uh. The likelihood of me getting FB is the same as you leaving WU. 0% chance.
After these more recent lulls, I didn't come on much, and actually found it to be really refreshing.
Quoting 560. KoritheMan:

It's been a fun ride. I've made a few decent friends here whom I keep contact with on Facebook, and even some with whom I DON'T have on my Facebook. You know who you are.

After I hit 600 blog posts, I'm leaving. I intend to make a post detailing ways of how to contact me in that blog post, then you'll never see me again. Maybe I'll meet some of you years down the line when I become a met. I wouldn't be opposed to that.

So yeah. Enjoy me for these few days while you can. The ones who are glad I'm gone can **** off anyway.


alright

chapter 2 initiates soon...
I've just ignored three people. This is probably my first step to sticking around. **** you guys, lol. :)

As long as I can weed out the idiots, I should be fine.

*takes a deep breath*
Quoting 586. MaxWeather:



alright

chapter 2 initiates soon...


It already has. See post 587.
Quoting 584. Astrometeor:



Yeah....never getting FB. Nope, nuh-uh. The likelihood of me getting FB is the same as you leaving WU. 0% chance.


You're just afraid of what you'd find on mine being friends with me.
Quoting 589. KoritheMan:



You're just afraid of what you'd find on mine being friends with me.


I already have a good idea of what you post on there...given what Kyle (Bluestorm) and Cody shiver about in WU chat...and I don't like any of that stuff and you darn well know it.

P.S. Stay or else I won't talk to you anymore.
Quoting 590. Astrometeor:



I already have a good idea of what you post on there...given what Kyle (Bluestorm) and Cody shiver about in WU chat...and I don't like any of that stuff and you darn well know it.

P.S. Stay or else I won't talk to you anymore.


I highly doubt Cody shivers at anything I post. He claims to be an open book and I believe him.

P.S. I'm going to. You guys have talked me out of leaving.
Quoting 552. Ryuujin:

What is with the intense hypecasting of this TD? My god some of you are acting like it's going to bomb out like Katrina and smash into Tampa destroying half of Florida in the process. It hasn't even made it past the /very/ mountainous Yucatan Peninsula yet.

Very mountainous Yucatan Penninsula. That's very funny. Tallest things there are the pyramids.
Quoting 591. KoritheMan:



I highly doubt Cody shivers at anything I post. He claims to be an open book and I believe him.

P.S. I'm going to. You guys have talked me out of leaving.


Yay.

Note to self: Why am I up at this hour? Oh yeah...dern pretty female kept me distracted and then procrastination kicked in.

I'm off for now. Goodnight Kori, night blog.
Quoting oldnewmex:

Very mountainous Yucatan Penninsula. That's very funny. Tallest things there are the pyramids.


Excuse me for not knowing the correct topography. It's a little south of there that's very mountainous. Hilarious, I know.
Doesn't 09L look like Hanna now.
Quoting 595. HurricaneAndre:

Doesn't 09L look like Hanna now.


That convective burst should make it a tropical storm by 5 AM if it doesn't disappear. But even if it does, don't expect any rapid strengthening with westerly shear.
06Z data is out for TD9
As well as 06Z models
Tracks are further E
Intensity forecast show and upward trend in intensity

Quoting 593. Astrometeor:



Yay.

Note to self: Why am I up at this hour? Oh yeah...dern pretty female kept me distracted and then procrastination kicked in.

I'm off for now. Goodnight Kori, night blog.


Good night, Nathan. You're one of my best friends, and I'm glad you were able to help convince me to stay.
Quoting 594. Ryuujin:



Excuse me for not knowing the correct topography. It's a little south of there that's very mountainous. Hilarious, I know.

The entire Yucatan Penninsula has no more topography than low hills. Mountains don't start appearing until you reach Guatemala / Chiapas.
Weather forcasting may be an "in-exact science", as you say, but topography is pretty simple.
are u kidding me? TD #9 after i just got off from work? awesome! It was only at 50% when i last look
Delurking again for a bit...

I see the wishcasters, doomcasters, and downcasters are battling again.

Folks...there's no reason to make any final predictions based on a 10-day model run. These things can change rapidly even after 3 days.

On the other hand, though, while STS is kinda pushing doom more than a bit much, IMHO, there is certainly precedent and climatology for the GFS solution; any storm in November that gets into the WCarib, with all that hot juicy SST, will have plenty of room to intensify, perhaps even bomb out. Once (if) it crosses into the GoM, though, good old Captain Trough and Major Westerly Shear might put enough of a hurt on it to weaken it as it crosses FL to a Cat 1 or even strong TS...and then ultimately transform it into a NE'ster gale storm for the Atlantic. We're not talking Son of Wilma, let alone, Son of Katrina here.

It's just as likely to stay S of the Florida Straits and rake the Bahamas, or even meander then move W back into Mexico or even back into the Pacific.

All we can do is watch, and if necessary, prepare. Any talk of landfall in the US is still quite premature.

After all, this is the same GFS model that has been for the last 2 months dropping hurricane landfalls everywhere from South Central Louisiana to Tampa every other run @ 300 - 384. Sprinkle with at least a pound of salt, please.

/lurking back now
Quoting 515. StormTrackerScott:



Hurricane Kate comes to mind from the 80's. Hit near Thanksgiving and caught many off guard in FL when it hit as a cat 2.
I don't remember it that way, exactly. The hurricane season of 1985 was extremely active in the Atlantic basin and most especially in the Gulf of Mexico. The Florida panhandle had already been threatened by several storms that year before Kate and had been brushed by Cat 3 hurricane Elena. Kate came through the Western Caribbean and turned north, passing through the Yucatan Channel and then made a beeline to Appalachicola, where it made landfall. I recall seeing news reports with people in the Panhandle remarking about how many times they had been asked to evacuate that year, as Kate approached.

We were all hurricane-weary that year in Florida, having so many storms in the Gulf from July onward to November. It was not at all like this year or last year, with next-to-nothing happening until very late in the season.
Quoting 602. FLWaterFront:

I don't remember it that way, exactly. The hurricane season of 1985 was extremely active in the Atlantic basin and most especially in the Gulf of Mexico. The Florida panhandle had already been threatened by several storms that year before Kate and had been brushed by Cat 3 hurricane Elena. Kate came through the Western Caribbean and turned north, passing through the Yucatan Channel and then made a beeline to Appalachicola, where it made landfall. I recall seeing news reports with people in the Panhandle remarking about how many times they had been asked to evacuate that year, as Kate approached.

We were all hurricane-weary that year in Florida, having so many storms in the Gulf from July onward to November. It was not at all like this year or last year, with next-to-nothing happening until very late in the season.


Kate crossed the straits, not the channel.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Kate crossed the straits, not the channel.


Actual FLW is correct it is the Yucatan Channel separating The Yucatan peninsula and Western tip of Cuba wth the Florida Straits between Cuba and the Florida Keys.

Quoting 604. lat25five:



Actual FLW is correct it is the Yucatan Channel separating The Yucatan peninsula and Western tip of Cuba wth the Florida Straits between Cuba and the Florida Keys.




Right, and Kate took the latter of those paths. :P

0z Euro joins the GFS in the front leaving 09L behind. We have to see if it can regenerate in the Caribbean later on before we make it any predictions about anything else.
Short good morning hello with stormy Ex-Gonzalo over our heads in Europe, digging a deep cold trough far into the atmosphere of the Mediterranean.





Some tidal storm surge at our Atlantic coast, see the (saved) current average wind map (source):




North braces for storms and floods
The Local (Germany), Published: 22 Oct 2014 10:52 GMT 02:00
The remnants of hurricane Gonzalo have drifted across the Atlantic and are now threatening North German cities with flooding, forecasters warned on Wednesday.
The National Navigation and Hydrography Office (BSH) in Hamburg published a flood warning for the North Sea coast, saying that high tide on Wednesday could be 2 to 2.5 metres higher than average in some places.
The German Weather Service (DWD) warned of high winds and heavy showers as Gonzalo makes its way across Germany and then eastwards during Wednesday afternoon.
The storms caused damage in Dusseldorf on Tuesday night, collapsing scaffolding and other temporary structures in some places.
And in Baden-Wurttemberg firefighters and police were called out hundreds of times, while fallen trees blocked some roads and regional train lines, as well as two S-Bahn lines in Munich.
Two tents housing refugees in Nuremberg had to be dismantled after they were damaged by heavy winds.
No-one has so far been hurt by the bad weather in Germany so far.



Oct 21: Violent Winds Force Water Backwards Up The Waterfall (Peak District, England)
Quoting 607. barbamz:

Short good morning hello with stormy Ex-Gonzalo over our heads in Europe, digging a deep cold trough far into the atmosphere of the Mediterranean.








Oct 21: Violent Winds Force Water Backwards Up The Waterfall (Peak District, England)



That waterfall video is cool.
Quoting 608. KoritheMan:



That waterfall video is cool.


Agree :-) Have a good day, Kory!
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE
NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2014 Time : 084500 UTC
Lat : 19:23:59 N Lon : 92:19:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1000.7mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.8 2.9

Center Temp : -40.1C Cloud Region Temp : -48.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.71 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.1 degrees

************************************************* ***
El Nino unlikely this year, but hot and dry conditions expected

Weather models are now showing an El Nino is unlikely to develop this year.

Of the models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology, three of eight are suggesting El Nino thresholds could be reached by January, while another two remain just shy of the thresholds for an event.

The bureau's manager of climate prediction services, Andrew Watkins, says even though the models have backed away from an El Nino this year, El Nino-like conditions are still expected.

"About half the models from around the world are currently indicating that we are still likely to have an El Nino event. Whether we have one or not, what we are saying to people is we have some conditions out there that will typically bring warmer and drier conditions to large parts of Australia.

"Even though the odds are about 50 per cent, we still expect to see some impacts."

He says temperatures in the Tropical Pacific Ocean have remained warmer than average for more than six months, but have not reached El Nino levels.

"And we do have some cooler waters to the north of Australia, and that combination alone, even if it's not an El Nino, typically brings warmer than normal conditions to Australia, and unfortunately drier than normal conditions to eastern Australia," Dr Watkins said.

The outlook for the rest of the year is for hotter and drier conditions in many parts of the country.

"The current conditions we're seeing, both in the Tropical Pacific Ocean and around Australia's coasts are pushing us towards generally drier, generally warmer summer ahead, increased risk of heat-waves, some increased risk of bushfires, particularly in the south-east, and parts of the west, but a reduced risk of tropical cyclones and a reduced risk of flooding, or widespread flooding, which is always good to see during the wet season," Dr Watkins said.


© ABC 2014
Quoting 617. tampabaymatt:



Scott, I'm still waiting on my 10 inches of rain you guaranteed would occur this week. It's just hilarious that you post countless times about how the GFS is in serious need of an upgrade and how useless it is, and now you post several model runs for it way out in time.

NEWS FLASH!!! The models have basically zero accuracy past 5 days. What will it take to get you people to stop posting this garbage.


You have the power to ignore any postings. People are free to post what they want. Have you ever been schooled in debating in high school? That is the problem with people these days. Instead of blasting a post you can always refute what is posted by intelligently citing your rationale.
Can't post the image GFS has a hurricane nearing Tampa in 168 hrs.
Good Morning
Quoting 619. hurricanewatcher61:

Can't post the image GFS has a hurricane nearing Tampa in 168 hrs.


The GFS hasn't been the best model for tropical activity this year. I would give it low confidence this far out. If it models out such a threat within 3 days and other models agree then I would give it full weight. until then- it's just the GFS. Ho hum.
Quoting hurricanewatcher61:
Can't post the image GFS has a hurricane nearing Tampa in 168 hrs.


You mean this one:

06Z @ 168HR
06Z GFS at 173 hours
That's the one.
Quoting WxLogic:


You mean this one:

06Z @ 168HR
06z NAVGEM at 144 hours

A cat 2 hurricane coming into Tampa next Tuesday.

Quoting 617. tampabaymatt:



Scott, I'm still waiting on my 10 inches of rain you guaranteed would occur this week. It's just hilarious that you post countless times about how the GFS is in serious need of an upgrade and how useless it is, and now you post several model runs for it way out in time.

NEWS FLASH!!! The models have basically zero accuracy past 5 days. What will it take to get you people to stop posting this garbage.

06z GFS has a 995 MB System South of Cuba in 5 Days.
I can't stress enough on how dangerous of a pattern this is for FL this weekend and early next week.
I think the streak of hurricanes hitting FL may run out early next week.
0Z HWRF

632. MahFL
Quoting 524. islander101010:

florida is a rat race with a large influx of population past ten yrs. evac.s are no fun. could we have widespread panic?


The problem is a lot of new Floridians do not even know what a hurricane is, let alone a Cat3. It's been 8 years since a hurricane hit Florida.
Quoting 606. KoritheMan:

0z Euro joins the GFS in the front leaving 09L behind. We have to see if it can regenerate in the Caribbean later on before we make it any predictions about anything else.
One thing we'll see in Florida this week for sure!
634. MahFL
Convection firing again on TD9.

635. MahFL
Shear relaxing a bit, green east of the Yucatan now.

Quoting MahFL:
Convection firing again on TD9.



Will be interesting to see if it can sustain and even increase the convection a bit more past DMAX.

Shear starting to decrease some as ULAC attempts to build back up into C America.



At least MahFL and I are in the same page LOL.


watch out here!
Quoting 608. KoritheMan:



That waterfall video is cool.

Presently storm surge Delfzijl, NE of Holland more than +2.50m and two feet above model. No problem, but storm surges got undermodelled by a foot or more past year and I don't like this.
Link




heavy rain coming soon!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
425 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
VERY UNCLEAR WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO TD9 NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SPLITS
ENERGY ASSOC W/ TD9 IN TWO PIECES ON EITHER SIDE OF CUBA. ONE
PIECE RACES OFF TO THE ENE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED S/WV WITH
THE OTHER REMAINING IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN. GFS THEN STRENGTHENS
THE PIECE LEFT BEHIND AND MOVES IT NORTH INTO THE ERN GOMEX AS A
STRONG TS. COULD HAPPEN...BUT WAY TO COMPLICATED AND NOT NEAR
ENOUGH SUPPORT BY OTHER MODELS TO PUT MUCH STOCK IN THAT SOLN OUT
7 DAYS. THAT SAID...SHOULD NOTE THE ECMWF DOES SHOWS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE FEATURE BETWEEN YUCATAN AND CUBA AS WELL...SO WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT BECOMES OF TD9 NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW FOLLOWED
ECMWF FOR LAST FEW PERIODS OF THE FORECAST WHICH IS MUCH LESS
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
615 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014
SAT-TUE...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD DIVE SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS SAT-SUN UNTIL A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE PARKS ACROSS THE AREA MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SLOW TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE CENTER HAVING PULLED OFF OF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUE. A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE COMPONENT
OF WIND IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF WANT TO
BRING A DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR WEST CUBA
BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD WITH THE GFS MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS
FEATURE.
One thing is for certain, most of the southeast except for the FL keys are going to stay DRY the next 7 days. No landfalling hurricanes during this time. No one other than the people down in the Keys may get 'hammered' with a significant rain. Just posting the facts. Im loving the perfect weather here around Tally :) Along with FSU's perfect record!



Quoting 564. scottsvb:



I been telling that for years on here. It's like being a teacher.. you tell them and show them something and they just won't follow directions.
I think it invovles getting days off work, it they get a direct hit lol, when i was in school, I wanted everything to hit me. now owning a landscaping company in Winter Park Fl not so much haha,
Quoting WxLogic:


Will be interesting to see if it can sustain and even increase the convection a bit more past DMAX.

Shear starting to decrease some as ULAC attempts to build back up into C America.





I can see why all those long range models never verify, they dont seem to look at the shear map lol. 50 to 60 kts of shear over the Gulf and Florida.
Quoting 617. tampabaymatt:



Scott, I'm still waiting on my 10 inches of rain you guaranteed would occur this week. It's just hilarious that you post countless times about how the GFS is in serious need of an upgrade and how useless it is, and now you post several model runs for it way out in time.

NEWS FLASH!!! The models have basically zero accuracy past 5 days. What will it take to get you people to stop posting this garbage.
I Keep posting, then i dont have to go look for the models myself :)
Quoting 645. Fishaholic25fl:

I think it invovles getting days off work, it they get a direct hit lol, when i was in school, I wanted everything to hit me. now owning a landscaping company in Winter Park Fl not so much haha,


Hell, I'd take a week off work for another Gustav. Walmart pays us. That's absolutely awesome. :P
Gfs and models this morning confirming my thoughts of the potential dangerous situation for tampa and Florida peninsula with a cat 2 or possible major hurricane impacting the area early next week...a large swath of Florida should see 10 to 15 inches of rain on top of the heavy rains yesterday over south Florida
Quoting 646. WxGuy2014:



I can see why all those long range models never verify, they dont seem to look at the shear map lol. 50 to 60 kts of shear over the Gulf and Florida.


Umm, I'm sure in 7 days that pattern will change lol as weather is a constant change
We got 9 inches yesterday in sone places in Palm beach county.
Quoting 647. Fishaholic25fl:

I Keep posting, then i dont have to go look for the models myself :)
From the Miami NWS Disco...


MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END OF
THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON IN THIS
REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOUTH FLORIDA
MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE WET WEATHER COULD
BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
06z HWRF strengthening storm as well headed for the channel navgem, GFS, HWRF all in agreement
Quoting mcluvincane:


Umm, I'm sure in 7 days that pattern will change lol as weather is a constant change


Yes, of course it will change, the weather is always changing lol. Point is the shear is high right now, and nothing would survive coming up that far north. Next week we'll see but its way to early to call for a Hurricane to hit anywhere in FL lol.
Quoting 554. Drakoen:


Every storm in here you hype out to the maximum. You've lost all credibility as far as i'm concerned. If you want to go back you can see that the ECMWF did show snow in North Florida which did happen in isolated places. Many places saw sleet.

I've been on this blog for ten years, It's for peoples comments and I enjoy all the models, wishcasting, and tropical data people post . To boast who's the better meterologyst and who's right and wrong is childish and annoying to scroll past lol.
NHC has TD9 as a post-tropical depression when it gets into the Caribbean.

That's interesting. I wonder why they don't think the system will remain tropical down in the Caribbean?
6Z HWRF

00Z GFDL
Quoting WxGuy2014:


Yes, of course it will change, the weather is always changing lol. Point is the shear is high right now, and nothing would survive coming up that far north. Next week we'll see but its way to early to call for a Hurricane to hit anywhere in FL lol.


Local news meteorologist said, just this morning, and I quote "this system is not coming here."

I want the system to come here (not too strong of course) just to see this meteorologist eat some crow.

Never say never when dealing with the weather (especially 7 days in the future).
When models start lining up like they are now, then we may have a problem to deal with next week....
Ouch!! This could get ugly for some trick or Treaters
Quoting 618. rmbjoe1954:



You have the power to ignore any postings. People are free to post what they want. Have you ever been schooled in debating in high school? That is the problem with people these days. Instead of blasting a post you can always refute what is posted by intelligently citing your rationale.


Maybe you didn't read my entire post. I'm not going to dig up the actual stats, but it's a proven fact that model accuracy is basically 0% past 5 days. That's my rationale. You are correct though. It's time to put STS on ignore as he has lost all credibility on this blog. It's sad as he is driving away the people on here who continue to post rational, sensible facts and opinions. Between the constant posts predicting flooding rains that never materialize, El Nino that never materializes, and crushing the GFS only to post numerous GFS model runs, enough is enough. I apologize for going back and forth with this guy and am putting him on ignore right now.
Quoting 662. tampabaymatt:



Maybe you didn't read my entire post. I'm not going to dig up the actual stats, but it's a proven fact that model accuracy is basically 0% past 5 days. That's my rationale. You are correct though. It's time to put STS on ignore as he has lost all credibility on this blog. It's sad as he is driving away the people on here who continue to post rational, sensible facts and opinions. Between the constant posts predicting flooding rains that never materialize, El Nino that never materializes, and crushing the GFS only to post numerous GFS model runs, enough is enough. I apologize for going back and forth with this guy and am putting him on ignore right now.

Scott is a very reputable forecaster and deserves props, one of the best I've seen here besides Levi. He should be commended for his efforts.
Quoting 662. tampabaymatt:



Maybe you didn't read my entire post. I'm not going to dig up the actual stats, but it's a proven fact that model accuracy is basically 0% past 5 days. That's my rationale. You are correct though. It's time to put STS on ignore

TampaBay..the blog thanks you because all your posts are only about Scott which is very annoying..


T.D. 9 Appearing to be Sheared This Morning.

It is a small system that can wind down or ramp up quickly.

T.D. 9 might become a minimal tropical storm .. at best .. before landfall, if it survives. Then, it has to survive the long trip over the Yucatan.

Then, we will see what happens. The models do not know what to do with it! Will it redevelop?

Maybe we will have a Gordon (1994) or Marco (1996) type of system to deal with, one with an unpredictable path~!

Till then, we will all have to wait and see.



Quoting 554. Drakoen:


Every storm in here you hype out to the maximum. You've lost all credibility as far as i'm concerned. If you want to go back you can see that the ECMWF did show snow in North Florida which did happen in isolated places. Many places saw sleet.



there is model support for the florida hurricane scenario, and being 7 days out is not an issue considering the system will be over bath water of extremely high tchp in the western Caribbean. Recall that hurricane Wilma strengthened despite shear in the GOM.
Quoting 664. ncstorm:


Quoting 664. ncstorm:


You All in the Carolinas might have some downstream effects of whatever future Hanna does
Need the rain here in Fort Myers

.93" of rain in 21 days at the house.

All that rain over on the eastcoast yesterday and nothing over here on the S.W. coast.



rain coming soon
Quoting 646. WxGuy2014:



I can see why all those long range models never verify, they dont seem to look at the shear map lol. 50 to 60 kts of shear over the Gulf and Florida.


Exactly. I made the same point yesterday. Shear will only increase as we get into late October, and since it is currently at very high levels, there is no reason to think anything will intensify in the Gulf. As sar pointed out yesterday, until anyone can tell me what shear, steering pattern, etc. will be like in 7 days, there is no reason to create alarm over a GFS model run 7 days out. The GFS has been absolutely terrible this entire season, let's not forget that.
Hurricane Wilma was predicted to make landfall in S.W. Florida over 7 days out.

But Wilma was a CAT5 hurricane and there was excellent model support.

So sometimes you can trust the models out 7 days, but you need to have a well established system for the models to grab on to.
ignoring storm rapper will not lessen the threat. west coast of fl. is very vulnerable to storm surge. good luck everyone
WU !!! This site has lately has been the best place to find the most updated satellite posts of T.D. #9, with loops!

What if we had another Hurricane Wilma headed our way, or a Mitch? I would be here .. checking out WU.

Thank YOU!!!!! Awesome.
Quoting 652. SecretStormNerd:

We got 9 inches yesterday in sone places in Palm beach county.


Many areas saw 7" from Lake O to West palm with some higher amounts. I did say C & S FL. Thew S FL verified but not the C FL so I was 50% right.
I understand skepticism of GFS by some- it has not performed as well as it ought to- but let me explain why I see a very bad scenairo for west and central to south florida- I don't normally trust models so far out but it is tbe pattern I am seeing with a trough ventilating a cyclone that has me- well I'll just be honest - on high alert- this is looking really nasty; we had bad surge from Debbie 2012 and Josephine 1996 as well as Frances 2004 folks if this pattern verifies it will be an absolute nightmare for the central and south Florida areas esp west coast of Florida.
Quoting 651. GeoffreyWPB:




That blow up of convection looks like it may be the energizer for TD 09 once it enters the Caribbean.
Quoting 672. tampabaymatt:


Exactly. I made the same point yesterday. Shear will only increase as we get into late October, and since it is currently at very high levels, there is no reason to think anything will intensify in the Gulf. As sar pointed out yesterday, until anyone can tell me what shear, steering pattern, etc. will be like in 7 days, there is no reason to create alarm over a GFS model run 7 days out. The GFS has been absolutely terrible this entire season, let's not forget that.


Absolutely correct. I will belive in GFS model solution only 3 days out from day of impact and if other models also support the same solution.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Exactly. I made the same point yesterday. Shear will only increase as we get into late October, and since it is currently at very high levels, there is no reason to think anything will intensify in the Gulf. As sar pointed out yesterday, until anyone can tell me what shear, steering pattern, etc. will be like in 7 days, there is no reason to create alarm over a GFS model run 7 days out. The GFS has been absolutely terrible this entire season, let's not forget that.



If (big if) something does form into a stronger system it will have to do it in the western Caribbean (not the GOM).
The system will then need to hold itself together as it moves up into the GOM.

Shear is not that bad in the western Caribbean and has been decreasing.

Quoting 673. Sfloridacat5:

Hurricane Wilma was predicted to make landfall in S.W. Florida over 7 days out.

But Wilma was a CAT5 hurricane and there was excellent model support.

So sometimes you can trust the models out 7 days, but you need to have a well established system for the models to grab on to.



The pattern also has to be straightforward. Gustav was another storm the NHC and models nailed 7 days out.
Quoting 676. StormTrackerScott:


Many areas saw 7" from Lake O to West palm with some higher amounts. I did say C & S FL. Thew S FL verified but not the C FL so I was 50% right.


Some areas in Port Saint Lucie reported 2-3 inches yesterday.
Quoting 666. StPetersburgFL:



there is model support for the florida hurricane scenario, and being 7 days out is not an issue considering the system will be over bath water of extremely high tchp in the western Caribbean. Recall that hurricane Wilma strengthened despite shear in the GOM.


Actually in the 6 day time frame now. Not long range anymore infact all the models this morning are really strengthening TD 9 in the NW Caribbean on the 06Z runs. Remember I said last night that the 06Z runs will have some good info ingested into them from the NHC and HH'ers.
Quoting 683. StormTrackerScott:



Actually in the 6 day time frame now. Not long range anymore infact all the models this morning are really strengthening TD 9 in the NW Caribbean on the 06Z runs. Remember I said last night that the 06Z runs will have some good info ingested into them from the NHC and HH'ers.


Agreed, now it's in the 6 day frame and the pattern is favorable for this to occur I think there could be significant inland flooding with this esp on top of the massive saturation from the heavy rains yesterday over south Florida
The uncertainty of whether or not it will survive after it hits the Yucatan Peninsula is difficult. It could go either way. Shear is dropping too. The question is how far it will drop, and will it be high enough to let dry air in to disrupt the system? It is definitely something to watch, despite the forecast calling for it to die out. Very high uncertainty is shown in the forecast discussion. This year has had little storms to track. But, the storms that formed have been very fun to track, unlike the last few years where every storm made landfall in the same area. Full of uncertainty and surprises.
Quoting 684. StPetersburgFL:



Agreed, now it's in the 6 day frame and the pattern is favorable for this to occur I think there could be significant inland flooding with this


Watching JB's morning video right now and he has some very interesting insights.
Quoting 685. Articuno:

The uncertainty of whether or not it will survive after it hits the Yucatan Peninsula is difficult. It could go either way. Shear is dropping too. The question is how far it will drop, and will it be high enough to let dry air in to disrupt the system? It is definitely something to watch, despite the forecast calling for it to die out. Very high uncertainty is shown in the forecast discussion. This year has had little storms to track. But, the storms that formed have been very fun to track, unlike the last few years where every storm made landfall in the same area. Full of uncertainty and surprises.


You're what, 14? 15 at the most? You're bright. Keep doing what you're doing.
JB is saying the GFS is showing this tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean merging with TD 09 in the NW Caribbean causing TD 9 to take off in intensity. So this weekend looks very interesting and this is not a joke people many models now show this as a intense system in 5 to 7 days.

Here are the intensity forecast from last night. 06Z runs appear much higher in intensity.

Quoting 686. StormTrackerScott:



Watching JB's morning video right now and he has some very interesting insights

Please share
Quoting 687. KoritheMan:



You're what, 14? 15 at the most? You're bright. Keep doing what you're doing.


Thanks. I appreciate it. I am 15, turning 16 in December. :)
It has been raining since 6:00 yesterday night.It's very nasty outside this morning dark,rainy and windy.I normally take metro but screw them today!.I had to take the truck.I'll pay for the parking if it means not standing out at the bus stop for 40 minutes getting sick and wet.
Here's a pic from CWG.Note this is NOT from this morning.
Recon is currently in the system
Quoting 691. Articuno:



Thanks. I appreciate it. I am 15, turning 16 in December. :)


No problem dude. I like you. I wasn't anywhere near as knowledgeable about weather when I was your age.
td9 another 2014 headache.
Quoting 692. washingtonian115:

It has been raining since 6:00 yesterday night.It's very nasty outside this morning dark,rainy and windy.I normally take metro but screw them today!.I had to take the truck.I'll pay for the parking if it means not standing out at the bus stop for 40 minutes getting sick and wet.
Here's a pic from CWG.Note this is NOT from this morning.



Rain doesn't cause sickness, wash. :D
T.D. Nine almost stationary. Looking less organized at the moment.

Will be investigated by RECON later this morning .... per NHC

Although it appears unorganized, it is a small system, and could still ramp up later today!

Does anyone still believe it is going to Florida?

It is WAY to early in the game to answer that question at the moment.

Quoting 690. mcluvincane:



I can't post because you have to be a paid member but in short it appears that a tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean is forecast to merge with TD 09 in the NW Caribbean and that is why the models are going crazy this morning in intensity its almost ideal conditions for an intensifying system in the NW Caribbean.



You've been under a dome for seemingly months now. But looks like there will be rain and waves coming your way.

Quoting 670. Sfloridacat5:

Need the rain here in Fort Myers

.93" of rain in 21 days at the house.

All that rain over on the eastcoast yesterday and nothing over here on the S.W. coast.
Quoting 694. KoritheMan:



No problem dude. I like you. I wasn't anywhere near as knowledgeable about weather when I was your age.


The blog has really helped me grow in knowledge, better than any other website has.
This ridge over the mid Atlantic also helps TD 9 gain strength as well as it is causing pressures to lower across the NW Caribbean & SE Gulf.

climatology says the straits of florida. might get misty rains up here in e cen fl. this wkend i plan on filling up with fuel and propane just in case
The hype is certainly in full force this morning. You people need to at least consider the other possibilities, which are in all reality much more likely to come to fruition than the GFS doom hurricane. The ECMWF/UKMET/CMC solution is much more likely to verify. It's a heavy rainmaker, and that's dangerous in itself, but no more. The NHC forecast looks spot on to me given all the available information, although there are uncertainties as always. If anything, it'll likely be weaker and dissipate sooner than the NHC forecasts, as they mention in their latest discussion.
Quoting 699. HaoleboySurfEC:

You've been under a dome for seemingly months now. But looks like there will be rain and waves coming your way.




GFS 8 day precip accum.



I come on this morning to find T.D 9 okay..Then I read back and see DOOM casting.I just have to say one thing..Remember when those precipitation maps were posted that showed October being dry for the most part?..Yeah never materialized..So why are people getting hype for something a week out?.
Quoting 651. GeoffreyWPB:


What is that BLOB off of Cancun and Cozumel? At the moment, it looks more impressive than T.D. #9!
Quoting 703. MAweatherboy1:

The hype is certainly in full force this morning. You people need to at least consider the other possibilities, which are in all reality much more likely to come to fruition than the GFS doom hurricane. The ECMWF/UKMET/CMC solution is much more likely to verify. It's a heavy rainmaker, and that's dangerous in itself, but no more. The NHC forecast looks spot on to me given all the available information, although there are uncertainties as always. If anything, it'll likely be weaker and dissipate sooner than the NHC forecasts, as they mention in their latest discussion.


JB said this morning that the Euro is struggling with TD 9 but appears to getting more in line with the other models. It was the 06Z runs that have the new info ingested into them by the NHC and HH'ers so the Euro could jump onboard as well come 12Z. Every 06Z run from the Navgem, GFS, HWRF, & GFDL have all gone much stronger that's fact and its not long range anymore. We were hyping Bermuda 7 to 10 days out with Gonzalo but because its FL we can't say anything. What a joke some are on here.
Quoting 703. MAweatherboy1:

The hype is certainly in full force this morning. You people need to at least consider the other possibilities, which are in all reality much more likely to come to fruition than the GFS doom hurricane. The ECMWF/UKMET/CMC solution is much more likely to verify. It's a heavy rainmaker, and that's dangerous in itself, but no more. The NHC forecast looks spot on to me given all the available information, although there are uncertainties as always. If anything, it'll likely be weaker and dissipate sooner than the NHC forecasts, as they mention in their latest discussion.


If I recall, the CMC had a doom hurricane hitting the same area a few runs back
Quoting 707. StormTrackerScott:



JB said this morning that the Euro is struggling with TD 9 but appears to getting more in line with the other models. It was the 06Z runs that have the new info ingested into them by the NHC and HH'ers so the Euro could jump onboard as well come 12Z. Every 06Z run from the Navgem, GFS, HWRF, & GFDL have all gone much stronger that's fact and its not long range anymore. We were hyping Bermuda 7 to 10 days out with Gonzalo but because its FL we can't say anything. What a joke some are on here.


Tell me about it, I don't understand these people sometimes
At least the blog is staying on topic.

Season came in with a bang (Arthur), the peak was a real snoozer, let's see if it bookends with a bang.

Personally, concerned with TD9. I think if it survives the next 48-72, the models will quickly come into agreement. Then we'll really know what we are up against.

Quoting 695. islander101010:

td9 another 2014 headache.
Quoting 707. StormTrackerScott:



JB said this morning that the Euro is struggling with TD 9 but appears to getting more in line with the other models. It was the 06Z runs that have the new info ingested into them by the NHC and HH'ers so the Euro could jump onboard as well come 12Z. Every 06Z run from the Navgem, GFS, HWRF, & GFDL have all gone much stronger that's fact and its not long range anymore. We were hyping Bermuda 7 to 10 days out with Gonzalo but because its FL we can't say anything. What a joke some are on here.

I haven't watched JB's video yet, I'll see what he says but I doubt it will sway me any. Not sure who was hyping Bermuda 7-10 days out. I sure wasn't. Although that still would have held some justification since it became apparent shortly after it formed that Gonzalo would indeed become a strong hurricane (which I didn't originally think would happen). And given that the NHC forecast track doesn't even remotely point towards Florida, and that the WPC forecasts almost all the rain to stay south of Florida, except the Keys, this is a completely different scenario anyways. We knew Gonzalo would track near Bermuda. We have no way to be confident that this will track near Florida. No Scott, you're the joke. And it's not like me to put it that way, but if you want to dish it out I will too. You get lucky once in awhile, and everyone remembers the one forecast you hypesters get right. But never the wrong ones. Except maybe El Nino. Lol.
I have issues with NHC;s handling of this, yesterday was at 50/50, became a depression about 8 hours later, now they are saying in days 4 to 5 might be a remnant low WTH. Model support is really high on the area of the Caribbean the NHC feeds the models the info then discard them or downplay the results. I don't understand their thinking.
Quoting 709. mcluvincane:



Tell me about it, I don't understand these people sometimes


Many on here downcasting this system at the same time frame were hyping Gonzalo wiping Bermuda clean as some put it on here but because its FL its different.
Who was hyping Gonzalo 7-10 days out?.If I remembered correctly people were spamming I mean posting model runs of what-would-be Gonzalo nearing South Florida as a hurricane -_-.Once the pattern became clearer and once we were in the 3-5 day range it was pretty clear that just like all the other storms for this year except Dolly Gonzalo was going to recurve out to sea.And NO ONE saw Gonzalo becoming a strong cat 4
Quoting 712. weaverwxman:

I have issues with NHC;s handling of this, yesterday was at 50/50, became a depression about 8 hours later, now they are saying in days 4 to 5 might be a remnant low WTH. Model support is really high on the area of the Caribbean the NHC feeds the models the info then discard them or downplay the results. I don't understand their thinking.


The 06Z runs had lots of good info from the HH'ers and its possible the GFS might have the info on the 0Z run.
Quoting 712. weaverwxman:

I have issues with NHC;s handling of this, yesterday was at 50/50, became a depression about 8 hours later, now they are saying in days 4 to 5 might be a remnant low WTH. Model support is really high on the area of the Caribbean the NHC feeds the models the info then discard them or downplay the results. I don't understand their thinking.


At 8 pm it was 50/50 then a hour (9:30pm) and a half later it was TD 9 made no sense at all.
Quoting 709. mcluvincane:



Tell me about it, I don't understand these people sometimes

I feel the same way about you people, lol.

It's all in good fun though. This is a blog, nothing we say really matters, and everyone has a chance and a right to put their amateur opinion out there. But if you and Scott can hype it up, I can downcast it (although really I'm just saying what the NHC is saying).
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I can't post because you have to be a paid member but in short it appears that a tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean is forecast to merge with TD 09 in the NW Caribbean and that is why the models are going crazy this morning in intensity its almost ideal conditions for an intensifying system in the NW Caribbean.





I don't think that is what gonna kick off TD9
Quoting 715. StormTrackerScott:



The 06Z runs had lots of good info from the HH'ers and its possible the GFS might have the info on the 0Z run.
If NHC is waiting on the GFS runs why don't they just say that instead of possibly underplaying something that could be in our backyard mid next week?
You just better hope Capt Trough Save the US has not been having too much fun at Oktoberfest...

Quoting 705. washingtonian115:

I come on this morning to find T.D 9 okay..Then I read back and see DOOM casting.I just have to say one thing..Remember when those precipitation maps were posted that showed October being dry for the most part?..Yeah never materialized..So why are people getting hype for something a week out?.
Quoting 714. washingtonian115:

Who was hyping Gonzalo 7-10 days out?.If I remembered correctly people were spamming I mean posting model runs of what-would-be Gonzalo nearing South Florida as a hurricane -_-.Once the pattern became clearer and once we were in the 3-5 day range it was pretty clear that just like all the other storms for this year except Dolly Gonzalo was going to recurve out to sea.And NO ONE saw Gonzalo becoming a strong cat 4


The models have this system impacting FL in 6 to 7 days which is medium range now same as was the case with Bermuda in regards to Gonzalo.
You all rely on unreliable computer models too much. I really don't see this becoming anything more than a moderate tropical storm.
Quoting 697. Stormwatch247:

T.D. Nine almost stationary. Looking less organized at the moment.

Will be investigated by RECON later this morning .... per NHC

Although it appears unorganized, it is a small system, and could still ramp up later today!

Does anyone still believe it is going to Florida?

It is WAY to early in the game to answer that question at the moment.


Not sure if anyone is aware but recon has been out there for at least an hour. Found a couple readings of TS strength but if I am reading it correctly still not very organized.
Quoting 711. MAweatherboy1:


I haven't watched JB's video yet, I'll see what he says but I doubt it will sway me any. Not sure who was hyping Bermuda 7-10 days out. I sure wasn't. Although that still would have held some justification since it became apparent shortly after it formed that Gonzalo would indeed become a strong hurricane (which I didn't originally think would happen). And given that the NHC forecast track doesn't even remotely point towards Florida, and that the WPC forecasts almost all the rain to stay south of Florida, except the Keys, this is a completely different scenario anyways. We knew Gonzalo would track near Bermuda. We have no way to be confident that this will track near Florida. No Scott, you're the joke. And it's not like me to put it that way, but if you want to dish it out I will too. You get lucky once in awhile, and everyone remembers the one forecast you hypesters get right. But never the wrong ones. Except maybe El Nino. Lol.


No one was hyping Bermuda 7-10 days out. The talk started once we had an established system and 4-5 days out it became apparent that it was going to head into the direction of Bermuda. It does amuse me that one week people are saying that the GFS is a joke and in need of major upgrades and then the next week it is gospel because it paints doom and gloom for his state.
Quoting 719. weaverwxman:

If NHC is waiting on the GFS runs why don't they just say that instead of possibly underplaying something that could be in our backyard mid next week?


They are not waiting on the GFS. What is going on this morning the models are reacting to the info entered into them from the HH'ers which in most cases didn't go in until the 06Z runs
The 7am NHC says that TD9 remains weal and nearly stationary. Wasn't it supposed to be a TS nearing the Yucatan by now according to the GFS and some of you???

Stop with the wishcasting of DOOOOOOOOOM into Tampa Bay. Its starting to get reported worthy.
I like your thinking ameister. we can handle a TS even a strong one. Heres to hoping your downcast is correct.
Quoting 724. luvtogolf:



No one was hyping Bermuda 7-10 days out. The talk started once we had an established system and 4-5 days out it became apparent that it was going to head into the direction of Bermuda. It does amuse me that one week people are saying that the GFS is a joke and in need of major upgrades and then the next week it is gospel because it paints doom and gloom for his state.


That is a bunch of bull sorry man. Many on here were infact the same downcasters that are saying TD 9 is no threat to FL and all the models are lying 5 to 7 days out.

GFS 5 days. I guess we should disregard per many blog member. Sorry Caymankid we are told to not post this.

GFS 5 days

I mostly find it very amusing when one posts a model run over 7 days out and then says 'its not a joke take it seriously'. What i typically take seriously are NWS or NHC forecasts 3-5 days out. Looking out that far, the southeast and FL are DRY with no officially forecasted hurricanes or tropical systems headed my way or really anyone elses way in FL. So on that note, get out there and enjoy the NICE weather we will have for the next 7 days. After that, its all 'noise' :o)



As for TD-9, the 5 day forecast puts it as a depression in the middle of the Caribbean. Not FL bound. Time will tell, but no reason to be alarmed for anyone in FL at this time.
Are some of you really that upset at the GFS model? It is a possibility just like the ECMWF and CMC is. The GFS is one of the top performing models and is used by the NWS and NHC. We all know after 5 days it becomes less reliable just like any other model. The fact that my local NWS even mentions the possibility of the GFS has me keeping a closer eye on TD 9.
According to TWC Washington, DC is nowhere near average on precip totals for the month of October and its already October 23rd..now who the one hyping rain totals? I guess the CWG got it wrong while the CPC got it right..



DOUBLE-HITS! LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY MORE THAN 1 HURRICANE (IN A SINGLE SEASON) - SINCE 1995



All of the named tropical Cyclones were designated hurricanes during their lifetime, and caused hurricane force wind gusts during eyewall landfall, in the listed areas:

Add Fay and Gonzalo to the list of recent (since 1995) Atlantic Basin double-hit hurricanes - locations hit by more than one hurricane in a single season.


2014 - FAY and GONZALO - Bermuda


2008 - HANNA, IKE - Turks and Caicos Islands
2008 - IKE, PALOMA, GUSTAV - Cuba, Cayman Islands (Gustav and Ike impacted south Louisiana coasts at final landfalls)

2005 - CINDY, KATRINA - SE Louisiana, Mississippi
2005 - KATRINA, WILMA - South Florida
2005 - EMILY, WILMA - Yucatan Peninsula

2004 - CHARLEY, FRANCES, JEANNE - Central Florida Peninsula
2004 - FRANCES, JEANNE - Bahama Islands, Grand Bahama Island
2004 - CHARLEY, IVAN - Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba

2002 - ISIDORE, LILI - W. Cuba, Louisiana, (Isidore made final landfall as a T.S. in Louisiana)

1999 - DENNIS, FLOYD - North Carolina (NOTE: Irene 1999 hit FL as a TS, and brushed NC outer banks as a hurricane, while offshore. Note: Not to be confused with "Irene" 2011.)
1999 - JOSE, LENNY - Leeward Islands

1996 - BERTHA, HORTENSE - Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
1996 - BERTHA, FRAN - North Carolina

1995 - ERIN, OPAL - NW Florida
1995 - LUIS, MARILYN - Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands

Source: NHC, WU, WU Members

Thank You! Are there any recent areas impacted by 2 HURRICANES (in one season) not on this list??
Quoting 726. Ryuujin:

The 7am NHC says that TD9 remains weal and nearly stationary. Wasn't it supposed to be a TS nearing the Yucatan by now according to the GFS and some of you???

Stop with the wishcasting of DOOOOOOOOOM into Tampa Bay. Its starting to get reported worthy.



Actually the NHC said that....
FYI, for anyone thinking of a FL hurricane hit, lol, try the official discussion.

Link

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
400 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

After the increase of deep convection noted earlier, thunderstorm
activity associated with depression has leveled off, and recently
cloud tops have warmed. Also, the tropical cyclone's presentation
on the Sabancuy, Mexico radar imagery has become less organized.
The current intensity of the system is held at 30 kt. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
depression later this morning to check its intensity.

The depression continues to be affected by southwesterly shear, but
the dynamical guidance indicates some weakening of this shear within
the next 24 hours. This should allow for some strengthening of the
system over the warm waters of the eastern Bay of Campeche, prior to
reaching the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. After weakening due to its
passage across Yucatan, drier air associated with a frontal system
and west-southwesterly shear are expected to prevent
reintensification. The official intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one. Since the system is quite small, it might be
disrupted more than expected by its interaction with land -- and
weaken or degenerate into a remnant low sooner than shown by the NHC
forecast.

The cyclone continues to move eastward, or 090/5 kt. A generally
westerly mid-level environmental flow should carry the system
across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the northwestern Caribbean
Sea during the forecast period. The official track forecast is
nudged only slightly to the south of the previous one, but is north
of the multi-model consensus. It should be noted that due to the
possible interaction with a baroclinic cyclone to the northeast in
the latter part of the period, the track forecast becomes more
uncertain by days 4 and 5.
Quoting 727. weaverwxman:

I like your thinking ameister. we can handle a TS even a strong one. Heres to hoping your downcast is correct.

So just because I don't believe Florida is going to get smacked by a hurricane makes me a downcaster? You're funny.


Things could get interesting as there is increased model support for Carribean

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


That is a bunch of bull sorry man. Many on here were infact the same downcasters that are saying TD 9 is no threat to FL and all the models are lying 5 to 7 days out.

GFS 5 days. I guess we should disregard per many blog member. Sorry Caymankid we are told to not post this.

GFS 5 days



You are suh a joke. You are trying to hype this into some superstorm that it more than likely will never happen. I also don't believe for a moment that they put enough dropsconde data in a invest (which is what TD9 was at the time) to have data on the system. Those cost money and they usually wait until a system is fully formed to do that.
Now, thats quite a 5 day cone. Could dissipate, could head even further south, could head towards Cuba. My guess is it may not even survive crossing the Yucatan.

Models are becoming more and more tightly clustered across FL to NC per the 06Z runs especially for the GFS Ensembles.

06Z GFS Dropsondes, zero, zilch, nada





06Z GFS RECCO obs, zero, zilch, nada


Not sure if this is accurate due to the flight-level winds, but the Recon recorded tropical storm-force winds inside TD 9.
44.2 knots (~ 50.9 mph)
Tropical Storm
Notice the TVCN mean consensus model.

Quoting LargoFl:
well by now Floridians should already have had supplies etc on hand,season is still here............


Anyone who lives along a beach should always be prepared, whether or not one run of a bad GFS model shows a fantasy hurricane. I remember one blogger on here claiming victory of 5-7 named storms and that the season was 'shut down'. I also remember the NHC forecasting 9-11 named storms and well look at what we have, almost our 9th storm. Always follow the real experts, the NHC! They have not put anyone in FL in a cone or in any danger.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Models are becoming more and more tightly clustered across FL to NC per the 06Z runs especially for the GFS Ensembles.


Now I'm positive you're just a Troll.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Models are becoming more and more tightly clustered across FL to NC per the 06Z runs especially for the GFS Ensembles.



This graphic shows models taking it into the pacific, into south america, into the caribbean, into cuba and one into new orleans. I think its safe to say that the models are not in any agreement. But thats just me.
there is going to be..in the days to come in here..many who say nah, its not going to happen..and the danger here is this..folks lurking in florida are going to listen..and wont prepare..they should already have had the hurricane supplies on hand and should just wait and see what happens over the next 5-7 days...don't be telling people its NOT going to happen..tell people to be prepared just in case and wait this out......we still have days to watch this...my fear is..these October storms can explode close to florida,sometimes within hours of landfall..we Floridians remember a few huh that did..........be prepared and wait this out...and hey..I myself am in danger if this does come so im NOT wishcasting this to happen..i hope it fizzles out..but I am prepared..just in case.
Quoting 745. Ryuujin:


Now I'm positive you're just a Troll.


You got that one right.
Quoting 746. WxGuy2014:



This graphic shows models taking it into the pacific, into south america, into the caribbean, into cuba and one into new orleans. I think its safe to say that the models are not in any agreement. But thats just me.


Yeah about that.



watch it go north on the east side of FL and go up the east coast like hurricane sandy did!!!!
Will be interesting to see what does become of TD 9 for sure, but while we are waiting... just breathe everyone... relax... everyone has an opinion, some based upon analysis some based on hunches, but all with the ability to express their interpretations of the data. Most of all watch and be prepared if needed. We all love weather or we would not be here!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yeah about that.



So "Scott" what are your credentials by the way, since you seem so confident in a middle FL hurricane landfall.
one good thing, so far a weak cat-1 hurricane at best.....................
Quoting 751. KDDFlorida:

Will be interesting to see what does become of TD 9 for sure, but while we are waiting... just breathe everyone... relax... everyone has an opinion, some based upon analysis some based on hunches, but all with the ability to express their interpretations of the data. Most of all watch and be prepared if needed. We all love weather or we would not be here!
good post
Quoting 753. LargoFl:

one good thing, so far a weak cat-1 hurricane at best.....................
DOOM!!
756. MAstu
What's shear looking like in the Carib next week? Also, where can I find this information. Thanks!
Quoting KDDFlorida:
Will be interesting to see what does become of TD 9 for sure, but while we are waiting... just breathe everyone... relax... everyone has an opinion, some based upon analysis some based on hunches, but all with the ability to express their interpretations of the data. Most of all watch and be prepared if needed. We all love weather or we would not be here!
The problem lay on some people who try and claim special knowledge
Quoting 744. WxGuy2014:



Anyone who lives along a beach should always be prepared, whether or not one run of a bad GFS model shows a fantasy hurricane. I remember one blogger on here claiming victory of 5-7 named storms and that the season was 'shut down'. I also remember the NHC forecasting 9-11 named storms and well look at what we have, almost our 9th storm. Always follow the real experts, the NHC! They have not put anyone in FL in a cone or in any danger.


it would be the 8th storm.... why do people keep saying 9th
I feel sorry for those that aren't prepared and not paying attention to this. This could be a very bad event for Florida, probably north of Fort Myers maybe the Tampa area. The pattern is setting up for this to become a Doozy once it forms in the NW Carribean
Quoting 758. nwobilderburg:



it would be the 8th storm.... why do people keep saying 9th

Well, maybe because it is TD 9?
It can be confusing to some. :)
Quoting 753. LargoFl:

one good thing, so far a weak cat-1 hurricane at best.....................


High resolution has cat 2 borderline Cat 3
Quoting 756. MAstu:

What's shear looking like in the Carib next week? Also, where can I find this information. Thanks!
I think I read in a nhc update yesterday that shear is supposed to relax a bit in a few days
Hopefully this is the fix for the SSD satellite images problem:


NOXX01 KWBC 221017
FROM - NWSTG
TO - ALL
SUBJECT - NWSTG EMERGENCY MAINTENANCE
START - 22 OCT 2014 1415Z
END - 22 OCT 2014 1515Z
TOC WILL BE PERFORMING EMERGENCY
MAINTENANCE TO NETWORK SWITCH EQUIPMENT
BETWEEN 1415Z AND 1515Z TODAY. NO IMPACT
IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER A DATA FLOW STOPPAGE
OF UP TO 30 MINUTES IS POSSIBLE.
Quoting 763. mcluvincane:



High resolution has cat 2 borderline Cat 3
geez I sure hope not,im waiting to see what the models say this weekend,by then if its still coming decisions have to be made huh..
By the way, notice how Scott is not answering any real questions asked of him? Just like when he got caught "misinformed" about dropsconde data in the 06 GFS. Or how he wont address any of the other salient points that others have made? That should give you all enough info on if to trust his "Analysis" or not.
Quoting Ryuujin:


So "Scott" what are your credentials by the way, since you seem so confident in a middle FL hurricane landfall.


I would love to know the answer to this as well
Quoting MAstu:
What's shear looking like in the Carib next week? Also, where can I find this information. Thanks!

Expected to be a upper level anticyclone late weekend early next week it will be on top of TD9 when it gets in the area
Quoting mcluvincane:


Reported, stay on topic. No disrespect to others

Reported for fake hyping and not contributing to the site in a meaningful way.
Quoting 759. mcluvincane:

I feel sorry for those that aren't prepared and not paying attention to this. This could be a very bad event for Florida, probably north of Fort Myers maybe the Tampa area. The pattern is setting up for this to become a Doozy once it forms in the NW Carribean


Your key point is "once it forms." Then yes, climatology might say Florida. Until then it is pointless. If something gets going in the NW Caribbean we have plenty of time to pay attention and prepare. There is some model support for Florida. Some models don't develop it and some take the energy back into the Pacific.
Quoting 771. Ryuujin:


Reported for fake hyping and not contributing to the site in a meaningful way.


Fake hyping? What are you talking about? Im entitled to my opinions as I see fit.
Quoting 757. Ryuujin:

The problem lay on some people who try and claim special knowledge


Opinions of others only are bothersome if we as individuals choose to let them bother us. If you disagree with someone's analysis you have an ignore key and poof, they are gone! ...and now back to our regularly scheduled weather commentary. Have a great day folks!
Take a peek at bullet point 3.

and we must remember what month this is huh....................................
Quoting 776. LargoFl:

and we must remember what month this is huh....................................


Exactly!!!!
780. MahFL
Looks like virtually no shear right now over TD9.

No one was hyping Bermuda 7-10 days out. The talk started once we had an established system and 4-5 days out it became apparent that it was going to head into the direction of Bermuda. It does amuse me that one week people are saying that the GFS is a joke and in need of major upgrades and then the next week it is gospel because it paints doom and gloom for his state.


amen
Quoting 731. ncstorm:

According to TWC Washington, DC is nowhere near average on precip totals for the month of October and its already October 23rd..now who the one hyping rain totals? I guess the CWG got it wrong while the CPC got it right..






LOL, no where near when they have 73% of their monthly rain total with 74% of the month gone, they must be in drought LOL!
well the 0Z gfs said a big bend strike, the 06Z GFS says a tampa bay strike..lets see what the runs say in the next few days...after all..it Could be just a heavy rain maker as well as it could be a hurricane..prepare and wait this out..i sure hope it dies out down there
Quoting MahFL:
Looks like virtually no shear right now over TD9.


20-30 kts over it
Tropical Depression Nine is very weak. The reconnaissance aircraft hasn't found any flight-level winds above 30kt, supporting 20-25kt winds at the surface. SFMR winds have exceeded 40kt, but these are rain-contaminated and might be inflated by shallow waters in the southern Bay of Campeche.
GOM water vapor.

Quoting 783. LargoFl:

well the 0Z gfs said a big bend strike, the 06Z GFS says a tampa bay strike..lets see what the runs say in the next few days...after all..it Could be just a heavy rain maker as well as it could be a hurricane..prepare and wait this out..i sure hope it dies out down there
Watching with interest here in Cape Coral, seems like a 50/50 shot at this point. I am prepared though.
I find it interesting that there is a bigger mass of convection on the east side of the Yucatan than where TD9 is on the west.

weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Depression Nine is very weak. The reconnaissance aircraft hasn't found any flight-level winds above 30kt, supporting 20-25kt winds at the surface. SFMR winds have exceeded 40kt, but these are rain-contaminated and might be inflated by shallow waters in the southern Bay of Campeche.


Man good to see another level head around here.
Lol it is not working!
Quoting 786. WxGuy2014:

GOM water vapor.


Quoting 786. WxGuy2014:

GOM water vapor.




2 days old Sats not updating
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Lol it is not working!
Working fine for me?
Quoting 760. LargoFl:




Must say, That is interesting :) In the end, Mother Nature will decide~! Never Say Never when it comes to the Tropics ..

Wow, so many models, so many forecasts! So far out into the near future.

Would that be the leftovers of T.D. 9?? Hanna? The Ghost of Trudy, or something else that winds up in the NW Caribbean?

It will get very interesting to see what happens.

That is why we are all here!
Quoting 788. SWFLStorms1:

Watching with interest here in Cape Coral, seems like a 50/50 shot at this point. I am prepared though.
good for you,we wait and see what happens huh.
Quoting 732. Stormwatch247:

DOUBLE-HITS! LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY MORE THAN 1 HURRICANE (IN A SINGLE SEASON) - SINCE 1995



All of the named tropical Cyclones were designated hurricanes during their lifetime, and caused hurricane force wind gusts during eyewall landfall, in the listed areas:

Add Fay and Gonzalo to the list of recent (since 1995) Atlantic Basin double-hit hurricanes - locations hit by more than one hurricane in a single season.


2014 - FAY and GONZALO - Bermuda


2008 - HANNA, IKE - Turks and Caicos Islands
2008 - IKE, PALOMA, GUSTAV - Cuba, Cayman Islands (Gustav and Ike impacted south Louisiana coasts at final landfalls)

2005 - CINDY, KATRINA - SE Louisiana, Mississippi
2005 - KATRINA, WILMA - South Florida
2005 - EMILY, WILMA - Yucatan Peninsula

2004 - CHARLEY, FRANCES, JEANNE - Central Florida Peninsula
2004 - FRANCES, JEANNE - Bahama Islands, Grand Bahama Island
2004 - CHARLEY, IVAN - Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba

2002 - ISIDORE, LILI - W. Cuba, Louisiana, (Isidore made final landfall as a T.S. in Louisiana)

1999 - DENNIS, FLOYD, IRENE - North Carolina (NOTE: Irene 1999 hit FL as a TS, and brushed NC outer banks as a hurricane, while offshore. Note: Not to be confused with "Irene" 2011.)
1999 - JOSE, LENNY - Leeward Islands

1996 - BERTHA, HORTENSE - Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
1996 - BERTHA, FRAN - North Carolina

1995 - ERIN, OPAL - NW Florida
1995 - LUIS, MARILYN - Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands

Source: NHC, WU, WU Members

Thank You! Are there any recent areas impacted by 2 HURRICANES (in one season) not on this list??



Great list; Just an addition -however, for the northern Windward/ Leeward islands in 1995 we were also impacted by Iris, in addition to Hurricanes Luis & Mariyln. A very notorious year indeed for the Lesser Antilles islands...
The worst thing in the evolution of this blog has been the proliferation of models/model screenshots. Models make it so we don't have to look at HOW/WHY the model shows a cat 3 hurricane knocking on conus door in 180 hours..we simply propagate. In our social quest for instant feedback and instant gratification, we are posting models that don't hold true a majority of the time.

I have educated myself by looking at MAX 3 day forecast maps for Shear/fronts(monster troughs); Current ocean heat content/SST anomole/ITCZ/standard old fashioned blue and red surface maps. This TD, for example, isn't going to get into the Caribbean for 3 more days! I have no clue after that, because I'm a mortgage lender not a meteorologist!!!

I'm not right everytime, and I rarely predict anything to the blog. BUT....I have my sanity. No offense to any blog posts with model runs; if it says more than 72 hours, I simply scroll to the next post.

Lastly, ignore ignore ignore. I've upped my ignore list by 10 this season, not including obvious trolls. Some folks have blogged here for a long time, but I got tired of daily rain forecasts for the Orlando area (Apparently that is 'on topic' every day)

AB
scenario 1 and 2 for TD 9
Link
Quoting 795. Stormwatch247:



Must say, That is interesting :) In the end, Mother Nature will decide~! Never Say Never when it comes to the Tropics ..

Wow, so many models, so many forecasts! So far out into the near future.

Would that be the leftovers of T.D. 9?? The Ghost of Trudy, or something else that winds up in the NW Caribbean?

It will get very interesting to see what happens.

That is why we are all here!
yes,if nothing else..its going to make the next 7 days or so very interesting, following reports,nhc discussions etc and post counts might go thru the roof here lol....we watch and wait and be prepared.
Quoting SWFLStorms1:
So what? When did WU put in the rule that you have to be an expert and 100% right to post here? If that was the case you and I and 95% of the posters here would be banned. Everyone has an opinion so give it a rest.


There is a difference between having an opinion and debating it, and latching onto one model to support a wish of a major hurricane strike on a huge metropolitan area.


heavy rain here with t.storms in red color!!
New charts are in and shear is falling in the NW Caribbean

I think when TD9 or *TS Hanna* (depending) crosses over into the NW Carib Carib shear shall not be a problem
Dry air may be a problem but I think dry air won't be as bad as thought to be
Quoting 796. LargoFl:

good for you,we wait and see what happens huh.
Yep. Thats all we can do. Don't discount the models and don't discount the NHC. Lived here for 20 years, so I know the drill.
00Z

06Z

12Z
well anyway..for today............................................. .................
Quoting 783. LargoFl:

well the 0Z gfs said a big bend strike, the 06Z GFS says a tampa bay strike..lets see what the runs say in the next few days...after all..it Could be just a heavy rain maker as well as it could be a hurricane..prepare and wait this out..i sure hope it dies out down there


Exactly Largo. And the next run might not even develop it. We'll know a lot more in 2-3 days and then if something begins to develop we'll need to start paying attention.
The worst thing in the evolution of this blog has been the proliferation of models/model screenshots. Models make it so we don't have to look at HOW/WHY the model shows a cat 3 hurricane knocking on conus door in 180 hours..we simply propagate. In our social quest for instant feedback and instant gratification, we are posting models that don't hold true a majority of the time.

I have educated myself by looking at MAX 3 day forecast maps for Shear/fronts(monster troughs); Current ocean heat content/SST anomole/ITCZ/standard old fashioned blue and red surface maps. This TD, for example, isn't going to get into the Caribbean for 3 more days! I have no clue after that, because I'm a mortgage lender not a meteorologist!!!

I'm not right everytime, and I rarely predict anything to the blog. BUT....I have my sanity. No offense to any blog posts with model runs; if it says more than 72 hours, I simply scroll to the next post.

Lastly, ignore ignore ignore. I've upped my ignore list by 10 this season, not including obvious trolls. Some folks have blogged here for a long time, but I got tired of daily rain forecasts for the Orlando area (Apparently that is 'on topic' every day)


i don't plus posts....but i sure do cut and paste them when they make sense as yours truly does....thank you for your wise words
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Hopefully this is the fix for the SSD satellite images problem:


NOXX01 KWBC 221017
FROM - NWSTG
TO - ALL
SUBJECT - NWSTG EMERGENCY MAINTENANCE
START - 22 OCT 2014 1415Z
END - 22 OCT 2014 1515Z
TOC WILL BE PERFORMING EMERGENCY
MAINTENANCE TO NETWORK SWITCH EQUIPMENT
BETWEEN 1415Z AND 1515Z TODAY. NO IMPACT
IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER A DATA FLOW STOPPAGE
OF UP TO 30 MINUTES IS POSSIBLE.

Thank god for that this SSD problem is driving me nuts

Quoting 801. Ryuujin:



There is a difference between having an opinion and debating it, and latching onto one model to support a wish of a major hurricane strike on a huge metropolitan area.
I don't know Scott nor do I care, but in my 51 years on this earth, his latching onto one model is HIS opinion, be it right or wrong.
With all of its imperfections l really enjoy this blog. I just don't let it get to me as the majority are not experts. But we all seem to like weather or we wouldn't be here.
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Not sure if this is accurate due to the flight-level winds, but the Recon recorded tropical storm-force winds inside TD 9.
44.2 knots (~ 50.9 mph)
Tropical Storm

Yes but we would like to see more TS wind before it would be called

shear is dropping...but to the north of our td9....it is still very high....not only too high for formation...but too high to maintain formation


shear over this system? look at that vis. not too bad
Quoting 807. jrweatherman:



Exactly Largo. And the next run might not even develop it. We'll know a lot more in 2-3 days and then if something begins to develop we'll need to start paying attention.
yes unless it speeds up, we should know more on Monday..we have many days to watch this
Quoting SWFLStorms1:
I don't know Scott nor do I care, but in my 51 years on this earth, his latching onto one model is HIS opinion, be it right or wrong.
I value opinions. I value open debate more. But yeah, enough is enough.
Also with the new intensity models they spike as soon as TD9 leaves the Yucatan and in the NW Caribbean
Quoting ricderr:
shear is dropping...but to the north of our td9....it is still very high....not only too high for formation...but too high to maintain formation




Still 20-30kts over where its going. Not exactly condusive
Does anyone know if the floater-satellite issue has been resolved with current shots?.................Thanks.
I don't know ******* nor do I care, but in my 51 years on this earth, his latching onto one model is HIS opinion, be it right or wrong.

while i understand how you feel on the subject....here is the backlash from these types of commentors....this is from another forum

I'm becoming increasingly jaded to Weather Underground with time. I can see why some of my friends have moved on from there.
There's competition between popularity over quality of information, there's people hyping every cloud swirl as the next hurricane that damaged their home so badly in X year


we've lost many qualified posters...people we and others can learn from..... due to the "noise" some make
well I have been here since 85 and yes ive had some close calls with these storms but the old timers around me say..hurricanes don't come here, they somehow stay clear of tampa...well so far they have been right..i hear tampa is updating the tampa shields lol...
823. MahFL
Quoting 814. ricderr:

shear is dropping...but to the north of our td9....it is still very high...


It's going to be several days before TD9 moves NNE to Tampa, plenty of time for the shear to relax.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Does anyone know if the floater-satellite issue has been resolved with current shots?.................Thanks.

Has not been resolved yet but it might be later today

If it does it should have current shots
Still 20-30kts over where its going. Not exactly condusive


the path that it is traveling is the most conducive in the area....if it went north....shear in the short run is as high as 60 kts
Not yet
Quoting 820. weathermanwannabe:

Does anyone know if the floater-satellite issue has been resolved with current shots?.................Thanks.
Come on guys give it a rest LOL.

One thing is certain, no real development is expected of TD#9 until it cross the Yucatan Peninsula. Pretty certain you all have seen all the "reliable" forecast models and none do much until it arrives into the NW Carib.

Now, what happens after it crosses and enters the NW Carib. then that's another story. It could die right on the spot or it could in fact strengthen.

Instead of bashing other bloggers why not provide useful information proving their observations are a bit or overly "misguided".

Finally, please keep don't take it out on other people because of whatever problems you're having in your life just to have a psychological feeling of relieve or grandeur.

Just my two cents. :)
here's a graph of the shear movement which will influence direction of td9

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 786. WxGuy2014:

GOM water vapor.




Look at the time and date stamp.....Oct 20??
If only there were a place juan could take shelter from the personal attacks. A place where every comment is treated equal, except when they aren't. A safe haven for those that just want to make observations about the weather and every other topic that comes to their mind.

If only a place like that existed somewhere...
Good morning all.

I've posted a new video discussion for those interested:

Tropical Depression #9 Forms - Expected to Stay Weak But a Big Rain Maker
how is it with that nor'easter up along the northeast today?
Quoting 735. Ameister12:


So just because I don't believe Florida is going to get smacked by a hurricane makes me a downcaster? You're funny.
Wasn't trying to be funny. A lot of info out there including the crazy model runs. I think we could get smacked by a hurricane. In fact we will get another hurricane after all we are in Florida. I think the NHC is downplaying this because it is more than 5 days out. I am sure someone from the NHC checks this site on occasion. the more you guys hype things the more conservative the NHC. NOT REALLY they do what they do based on real time info and trained observations. Next week could be interesting. or it could be nothing. Not thinking the later. But not hyping a ghost either.
The most likely scenario is that 09L remains weak for the next several days, but if it can survive the initial shear, regeneration and/or restrengthening in the northwestern Caribbean under at least a diffluent upper air pattern seems probable.

The circulation is small enough to fall apart in a hurry, though. As we see now it's struggling mightily.
Quoting 834. LargoFl:

how is it with that nor'easter up along the northeast today?
I'm in Baltimore today and it's wet,cool and breezy. Stronger winds gusting to 40mph late tonight are forecasted.