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Gulf of Mexico Tropical Disturbance Headed Towards Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:17 PM GMT on July 05, 2013

A tropical disturbance over the Central Gulf of Mexico is headed northwest towards Texas at 5 - 10 mph. Satellite loops show a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance, which is suffering from high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots due to strong upper-level winds from a trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of Mexico. Dry air from the trough is also interfering with development. The upper-level trough is expected to weaken and pull to the north over the weekend, potentially bringing slightly more favorable conditions for development over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Sunday. The atmosphere will moisten and wind shear may fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. The disturbance should move northwest, arriving at the Upper Texas coast by Sunday morning. Heavy rains of 1 - 3" can be expected along the Upper Texas and Western Louisiana coasts Sunday morning through Monday morning. None of the reliable forecast models predict that the disturbance will develop. In their 8 am EDT July 5 outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A large upper-level cold-cored low pressure system a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico will move west over the next dew days, arriving in the Bahamas by Sunday and South Florida by Tuesday. Although the models do not show that this low will will acquire a surface circulation and develop tropical characteristics, it will be worth watching for development.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Erick is brushing the coast of Mexico and intensifying, and is expected to bring heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches to Acapulco. The core of the storm is currently expected to remain offshore. Erick's formation on July 4 comes eighteen days earlier than the usual formation date of the season's fifth storm in the Eastern Pacific, July 22.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. sar2401
Quoting taco2me61:


Hey there Sar :o) but to let you know I only got 1.23" of rain here at my house.... Although happy for what I got but not the rain to the north or west of us.... We had more light rain and drizzle than any heavy stuff.... I am glad the tree did not take down your antenna or Motor home....

Taco :o)

Hey, Taco. Neck any better tonight? I'm still popping pills, hoping for the best. I find I make my best posts while under the influence of narcotics. :-)

"Official" at the airport was 2.03, and I saw a few more 2+ readings from CoCoRaHS, but most were around an inch. Greenville had a whopping .23". The history of this blob has been highly variable rainfall, with one area getting significant flooding and an area 35 miles away getting drizzle. Did you have any convection today? I have had none since this whole system developed, which makes these variable rainfall totals even more weird. Between the persistance of the trough, the longevity of the blob, and the precipitous collapse last night, I've never seen anything like this. Even stranger, our best wishcasters haven't been able to conjure up a TD out of this, not matter how hard they tried. Very strange event indeed.
Latest Windsat
Quoting 988. sar2401:

GN. Cowpoke. I'm pretty much in agreement with you on this one. It's pretty clear the models are as totally befuddled as we are. :-)


This is one situation where it's better to use your personal judgment and common sense rather than the models.
1004. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm thinking of changing my avatar. I have a image of TC Evan while over Fiji I'd use instead.

Evening, Aussie. Evan was a very classically shaped storm, so it would make a good avatar. I was in Fiji diving last September. I understand Evan didn't a lot of serious damage to Fiji. I was up in the Yasawa Islands. Have you've heard of much damage from that area?
Quoting 1001. sar2401:

Hey, Taco. Neck any better tonight? I'm still popping pills, hoping for the best. I find I make my best posts while under the influence of narcotics. :-)

"Official" at the airport was 2.03, and I saw a few more 2 readings from CoCoRaHS, but most were around an inch. Greenville had a whopping .23". The history of this blob has been highly variable rainfall, with one area getting significant flooding and an area 35 miles away getting drizzle. Did you have any convection today? I have had none since this whole system developed, which makes these variable rainfall totals even more weird. Between the persistance of the trough, the longevity of the blob, and the precipitous collapse last night, I've never seen anything like this. Even stranger, our best wishcasters haven't been able to conjure up a TD out of this, not matter how hard they tried. Very strange event indeed.


Well as I read this I'm taken my nightly "Pills"... then sleeping pill in 45 mins if I last that long... LOL

But yea this is crazy the airport is only 6 miles to the west of me and they might have that 2.03" but I know I have not as of yet..... and really don't need it. It can go Strait to Texas and it does not even have to pass go and collect $200.
Now as for the wishcasters on here some do think it will still make TD anyway but I'm not seeing it that's for sure...
"This is Truly An Event" that's for sure :o)

Taco :o)

Edit my C5, told C6 to get off of C7 if you know what I mean LOL :o)
1006. SLU
Quoting 994. nigel20:

Yes indeed! Hopefully we'll not have a lot of flooding like previous years...when it rains it really pours here in Jamaica. The first half of 2010 was pretty dry, but we had quite a bit of rain from TS Nicole...many areas in Jamaica had rainfall in excess of 17 inches...more than 37 inches was recorded in Negril. TS Nicole was also the 4th wettest tropical cyclone to affect Jamaica...only Michelle 2001, Flora 1963 and Nov. 1909 Hurricane was wetter. I'm happy that I wasn't around in the Nov. 1909 Hurricane...up to 135 (3429mm) inches was measured in Silver Hill Plantation, Jamaica.


Whoa ... 135 inches!!!!!
1007. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


This is one situation where it's better to use your personal judgment and common sense rather than the models.

Couldn't agree more, Kori. The models were showing all kinds of ghost lows and circulations that clearly weren't there and weren't going to be there. It's kind of like these flash flood watches that BMX extended until Sunday. Except for the exteme MW part of the state, there's clearly no source for storms, very little instability, and no forcing mechanisms. Why cover the entire state with flash flood watches when the probability is very low? I realize this is kind of a CYA thing, but it's being driven by models which haven't been right much this week. We've been under a flash flood watch since late Monday. It was supposed to expire today, and BMX extended it to Sunday. How many people still care at this point? The boy who cried wolf once too often lives at the Shelby County airport. :-)
1008. SLU
Quoting 1006. SLU:


Whoa ... 135 inches!!!!!


The wettest ever in St. Lucia was Tomas in 2010... 26inches in 23hrs and that was pretty bad. I did not experience it since I was living in Trinidad at the time.
1009. nigel20
Quoting 1006. SLU:


Whoa ... 135 inches!!!!!

We had rising water and temporary ponds after Michelle in 2001, so I would not want to see what in excess of 3000mm in a few days would've done. :)
Quoting sar2401:

Evening, Aussie. Evan was a very classically shaped storm, so it would make a good avatar. I was in Fiji diving last September. I understand Evan didn't a lot of serious damage to Fiji. I was up in the Yasawa Islands. Have you've heard of much damage from that area?


It's track meant the worst part of Evan missed populated areas. Yes there was Damage but not as much as could of been. Even did more severe damage in Samoa than Fiji.

This was Samoa.







1011. sar2401
Quoting taco2me61:


Well as I read this I'm taken my nightly "Pills"... then sleeping pill in 45 mins if I last that long... LOL

But yea this is crazy the airport is only 6 miles to the west of me and they might have that 2.03" but I know I have not as of yet..... and really don't need it. It can go Strait to Texas and it does not even have to pass go and collect $200.
Now as for the wishcasters on here some do think it will still make TD anyway but I'm not seeing it that's for sure...
"This is Truly An Event" that's for sure :o)

Taco :o)

Edit my C5, told C6 to get off of C7 if you know what I mean LOL :o)

LOL. Taco, yes indeed. My C2 and C3 have constant arguments about which one gets to torment me in the next hour. I know it's true, because I can hear their little voices in my head. :-) Hope the pills work and you get a good nights rest.
1012. SLU
Quoting 1009. nigel20:

We had rising water and temporary ponds after Michelle in 2001, so I would not want to see what in excess of 3000mm in a few days would've done. :)


Yes 3000mm in a storm is pure madness.
1013. nigel20
Quoting 1008. SLU:


The wettest ever in St. Lucia was Tomas in 2010... 26inches in 23hrs and that was pretty bad. I did not experience it since I was living in Trinidad at the time.

That would have been between the 9th and 10th wettest storms in Jamaica. We had 24.5 inches in Dennis (2005) and over 27 inches from Isidore (2002)...Dennis was the 10th wettest and Isidore was the 9th wettest.
1014. SLU
The TWO's out so i'm off to bed. Later nigel.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 060532
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TOWARD THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
Quoting sar2401:

LOL. Taco, yes indeed. My C2 and C3 have constant arguments about which one gets to torment me in the next hour. I know it's true, because I can hear their little voices in my head. :-) Hope the pills work and you get a good nights rest.


I'm on pain patches. a new one every 2 weeks.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 060532
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TOWARD THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
1017. SLU
Quoting 1013. nigel20:

That would have been between the 9th and 10th wettest storms in Jamaica. We had 24.5 inches in Dennis (2005) and over 27 inches from Isidore (2002)...Dennis was the 10th wettest and Isidore was the 9th wettest.


wow! the high mountains seem to exacerbate the rainfall.

i'm out ... take care man (Y)
Quoting 979. AtHomeInTX:
A ways out. If I can get this to work.


Uh oh...the models wanna bring that wave out there to the western Gulf...here we go again. Too far out...but will keep an eye on it.
Quoting 1011. sar2401:

LOL. Taco, yes indeed. My C2 and C3 have constant arguments about which one gets to torment me in the next hour. I know it's true, because I can hear their little voices in my head. :-) Hope the pills work and you get a good nights rest.


So it's "True" :o) I'm not "Crazy after all, those are voices in my head.... I take that back ..... In My Neck :o)

Taco :o)
1020. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:


It's track meant the worst part of Evan missed populated areas. Yes there was Damage but not as much as could of been. Even did more severe damage in Samoa than Fiji.

This was Samoa.








Wow! The Yasawa's are so far away from the big islands that really don't think of themselves as being part of Fiji. Each island is ruled by the chief, and no one really cares what happens in Suva. Every island we stopped at, we had to go through the obligatory kava ceremony and buy some handicrafts. Not only did that kava concoction taste nasty, I got girardia from the water. It's considered bad manners if you filter the water first though. :-)
Quoting 1015. AussieStorm:


I'm on pain patches. a new one every 2 weeks.


That may be the next thing I'm on,,,, as long as they do not make me sick like the pills do....

Taco :o)
Quoting 1018. Stormchaser121:

Uh oh...the models wanna bring that wave out there to the western Gulf...here we go again. Too far out...but will keep an eye on it.


Yeah I'm not sure that wave is in existence yet. But the CMC brings the Atlantic wave to Mexico at 216hrs. Both are long range. But definitely keep an eye out. Latest TWO said 94l drifting our way this time.
1023. nigel20
Quoting 1017. SLU:


wow! the high mountains seem to exacerbate the rainfall.

i'm out ... take care man (Y)

Yeah, many areas in Jamaica is above 500m and most of the Blue mountains is above 1500m.

Same to you SLU!
1024. sar2401
Quoting AussieStorm:


I'm on pain patches. a new one every 2 weeks.

I'm on fentanyl (duragesic) 25 mg, every three days. I think the dosage is too low. Without hydrocodone, the pain is just intolerable. Me and the doc will have get this worked out. The patches really irriate my skin as well. :-(
ok I'm out for the night :o)
You all "Play Nice" and let some of the wishcasters have a turn too :o)

Chat some tomorrow, sorry later today :o)

Taco :o)
1027. sar2401
Quoting SLU:


Whoa ... 135 inches!!!!!

Let's see, that would take an 11 foot tall rain gauge, and a crane to empty it. :-)
Awe. Watching a show where they are trying to save fish stuck in mud holes that used to be river in south Texas. :( Hope they do get some rain.
1030. sar2401
Quoting taco2me61:
ok I'm out for the night :o)
You all "Play Nice" and let some of the wishcasters have a turn too :o)

Chat some tomorrow, sorry later today :o)

Taco :o)

GN, Taco, tell the voices to keep it down tonight so you can get some rest. :-)
Sorry to hear your suffering sar2401. Hoping to get another Sar and the WC team up for up to the minute reporting sometime soon. Gulf has had the models just hopelessly lost. The broad surface circulation can't get anything to form and wrap up on it's Western side. Anything is still possible, this has a mind of it's own. Never seen the models so wrong on multiple days.
Like I said the 94l is going to Lousisana/Tx border not the tx/mx border folks.
This man has a few kangaroos loose in the top paddock. LOL



92W meh.

TXPQ29 KNES 060340
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 06/0301Z

C. 20.1N

D. 156.1E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...POSITION IS BASED ON MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT IS
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ANY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES IN
ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA IS AMBIGUOUS AS TO WHETHER A
CLOSED CIRCULATION EXISTS AT THE SURFACE. BANDING OF SLIGHTLY MORE THAN
2/10 RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK
1037. nigel20
Enjoy the rest of the weekend all...I'm off to bed.
Quoting 1037. nigel20:
Enjoy the rest of the weekend all...I'm off to bed.


Night Nigel.
Quoting 1028. HurricaneAndre:

I see someone got to play with the yellow crayons again :o) LOL

Ok gone now

Good Night All :o)
1040. sar2401
Quoting Ed22:
I'm up and awake, watching the tropics very, very, very closely observing these three tropical disturbances, two out of the three or three of the tropical system could develop into something significant, I tell you guys right take my advorsies seriously. 40% to that disturbance in the GOM,10% to the one north of Puerto Rico and 20% to the tropical wave over the Eastern Atlantic once again life is returning the tropics.

Ed, tell me your reasoning for giving (94L?) 40%. I can agree with your other two, buy that mess in the western Gulf is just that, a mess. Wind shear is not high but not low enough to be conductive. The high is far enough away to weaken the disturbance and not close enough to sit on it. The Gulf has been pretty well worked over by almost a week of constant draining of moisture and energy caused by the blob, and water temperatures have dropped to below average. Unless that AOI can hang around in the Gulf long enough for the Western high to start to fill and the existing trough move more west, I just don't see how it has chance, in at least the next 72 hours.
1041. sar2401
Quoting nigel20:
Enjoy the rest of the weekend all...I'm off to bed.

GN, Nigel, almost time for me to hit the rack also.
1042. sar2401
Quoting Camille33:
Like I said the 94l is going to Lousisana/Tx border not the tx/mx border folks.

Didn't ssy this was going to a major hurricane also? You've said a lot of things so far. We'll find out in the next several days how well you forecast.
Looking at the latest Dvorak image of the Gulf, it appears a broad mid level circulation still exists. While the Gulf has been worked over Sar, there is ample moisture and energy still remaining and temps are more than high enough to sustain a storm. It's really hard to know what tomorrow brings with this persisting mess of a model destroyer.
Quoting 1001. sar2401:

Hey, Taco. Neck any better tonight? I'm still popping pills, hoping for the best. I find I make my best posts while under the influence of narcotics. :-)

"Official" at the airport was 2.03, and I saw a few more 2+ readings from CoCoRaHS, but most were around an inch. Greenville had a whopping .23". The history of this blob has been highly variable rainfall, with one area getting significant flooding and an area 35 miles away getting drizzle. Did you have any convection today? I have had none since this whole system developed, which makes these variable rainfall totals even more weird. Between the persistance of the trough, the longevity of the blob, and the precipitous collapse last night, I've never seen anything like this. Even stranger, our best wishcasters haven't been able to conjure up a TD out of this, not matter how hard they tried. Very strange event indeed.
Must be haarp keeping it down.


jk jk don't kill me! XD
Makes one wonder if the Northward progression is going to pan out. Looks like NE may be more like it. Skeptical of any prognosis at this point. More like expect the unexpected.
Quoting 1045. Tribucanes:
Makes one wonder if the Northward progression is going to pan out. Looks like NE may be more like it. Skeptical of any prognosis at this point. More like expect the unexpected.


Does this look like northeast to you?

haarp, what a beautiful and harmless musical instrument.
This shows an interesting story with that 30W wave. It's in a moderately moist environment for the time being. Also notable is the rotation in the BoC.



Quoting 1047. Tribucanes:
haarp, what a beautiful and harmless musical instrument.


It doesn't play any music audible to my ears.
Quoting 1048. Slamguitar:
This shows an interesting story with that 30W wave. It's in a moderately moist environment for the time being. Also notable is the rotation in the BoC.



Eh...



>_>
Quoting 1050. KoritheMan:


Eh...



>_>


I wouldn't dare say surface circulation...
You can clearly see the E Atl AOI have good definition in deep layer moisture you can see good spin
No organized vorticity with 94L at all.

Quoting 1053. Slamguitar:
No organized vorticity with 94L at all.


And to that very good vort with E Atl AOI
And look at that large blog of vorticity associated with the 30W wave.

700mb:

Quoting 1055. Slamguitar:
And look at that large blog of vorticity associated with the 30W wave.

700mb:


There is a lot of things that is going for the E Atl AOI than what people give credit for
Quoting KoritheMan:


Does this look like northeast to you?


ain't nothing going to get through that High.
Quoting 1056. wunderkidcayman:

There is a lot of things that is going for the E Atl AOI than what people give credit for


It's got most of my focus right now. Look at the shear, conductive in the near future:

1059. sar2401
Quoting Tribucanes:
Sorry to hear your suffering sar2401. Hoping to get another Sar and the WC team up for up to the minute reporting sometime soon. Gulf has had the models just hopelessly lost. The broad surface circulation can't get anything to form and wrap up on it's Western side. Anything is still possible, this has a mind of it's own. Never seen the models so wrong on multiple days.

LOL, Trib, I'm glad you liked my little script. Believe or not, I'd have to make up even more lies today, since nothing but a few passing showers have happened all day. I won't even raz you about our bet. As Kori wrote, sometimes you just have to fall back on experience and ignore models. In the 50 years I've been tracking storms, I've neve seen a TC that started with four days of rain and flooding. The models have probably never seen and Bermuda high this strong and far west while there was a Western US high so strong and so far east. I know they've never dealt with a trough like this conveyor belt we've had. When models come up against something they haven't seen before, they look for the next closest event in the database and use that. In a case like this, the models should spit out something like "I'm 50% sure that that AOI I just created has a 10% chance of development". At least we'll have a better idea how much faith to put in the danged thing. :-)
1060. Ed22
Quoting 1040. sar2401:

Ed, tell me your reasoning for giving (94L?) 40%. I can agree with your other two, buy that mess in the western Gulf is just that, a mess. Wind shear is not high but not low enough to be conductive. The high is far enough away to weaken the disturbance and not close enough to sit on it. The Gulf has been pretty well worked over by almost a week of constant draining of moisture and energy caused by the blob, and water temperatures have dropped to below average. Unless that AOI can hang around in the Gulf long enough for the Western high to start to fill and the existing trough move more west, I just don't see how it has chance, in at least the next 72 hours.


I just look at the satellite image the has relocated itself eastward and look stationary and your its the hurricane and the GOM sea surface temperature is normal in the season. This system has a 72 hour or more over warm water to get its act together and become something. So I disagree with your notion that it can't develop ownly if move westward it will ownly have shot development; with this system very high cloud tops and they're persistent so its let see then. That's why I give it 40% for now a boosted at development for the next 72 hours or more.
Quoting 1058. Slamguitar:


It's got most of my focus right now. Look at the shear, conductive in the near future:



And should continue during the med range future
Water temps are really lacking at a depth for the Atlantic AOI.

1063. sar2401
Quoting sar2401:

Didn't you say this was going to a major hurricane also? You've said a lot of things so far. We'll find out in the next several days how well you forecast.


EDIT: Interesting how hard it is to get a reply to a direct question.
Quoting 1057. AussieStorm:

ain't nothing going to get through that High.


Exactly.
Quoting 1060. Ed22:


I just look at the satellite image the has relocated itself eastward and look stationary and your its the hurricane and the GOM sea surface temperature is normal in the season. This system has a 72 hour or more over warm water to get its act together and become something. So I disagree with your notion that it can't develop ownly if move westward it will ownly have shot development; with this system very high cloud tops and they're persistent so its let see then. That's why I give it 40% for now a boosted at development for the next 72 hours or more.


72 hours seems like an awfully long time. What makes you say it has that long, considering the progression of things?
Good evening everyone.Just like an hour ago I wake up.
Quoting 1066. allancalderini:
Good evening everyone.Just like an hour ago I wake up.


Hi Allan.
Now if the E Atl AOI build enough convection during D-max later this morning it should create a big enough barrier to protect it from SAL and upper level dry air
Hmm already convection is building and D-max hasn't even arrived yet

Still at 60 knots:

EP, 05, 2013070606, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1032W, 60, 991, TS,
1071. sar2401
Quoting Slamguitar:
Water temps are really lacking at a depth for the Atlantic AOI.


Trib, take a look at this chart. It shows the depth in the Gulf and eastern Caribbean where the water is still 78 degrees F. Even in mid-Gulf, there's hard;y anywhere where 78 degrees is deeper than 50 feer, and it's closer to 20 feet around the edges and in that big area where the blob was parked. The only area with normal temperature to water depth ratio is south of Cuba to Jamaica. I'd normally dive with just a dive skin, not a wet suit, in July, beause the temperatures would be too warm. It would be real nippy to be at 20 or 30 feet in a dive skin at 78. Since 78 (26 degrees c) is about the lower limit for TC formation, this is also not a good sign for anything forming in the western or central Gulf.
Quoting 1071. sar2401:

Trib, take a look at this chart. It shows the depth in the Gulf and eastern Caribbean where the water is still 78 degrees F. Even in mid-Gulf, there's hard;y anywhere where 78 degrees is deeper than 50 feer, and it's closer to 20 feet around the edges and in that big area where the blob was parked. The only area with normal temperature to water depth ratio is south of Cuba to Jamaica. I'd normally dive with just a dive skin, not a wet suit, in July, beause the temperatures would be too warm. It would be real nippy to be at 20 or 30 feet in a dive skin at 78. Since 78 (26 degrees c) is about the lower limit for TC formation, this is also not a good sign for anything forming in the western or central Gulf.


Those are meters, not feet.
Church time, Back soon.

It's getting chilly here, crisp clear skies.
Quoting 1066. allancalderini:
Good evening everyone.Just like an hour ago I wake up.
Hi Kori how you doing?
Quoting 1069. wunderkidcayman:
Hmm already convection is building and D-max hasn't even arrived yet

Maybe 20% this morning.
1075. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hmm already convection is building and D-max hasn't even arrived yet


Look at the normal IR loop here instead of that raindow loop. It always looks worse than it is. It even shows convection ove Alabama when all we have is partly cloudy skies. The convection the IR loop does show is also far removed from there the center of 94L is supposed to be.
1076. sar2401
Quoting KoritheMan:


Those are meters, not feet.

Whoopsie, getting too late at night. Water at depth is still a little chilly for me without a wet suit, especially since most of that area doesn't have a thermocline.
Quoting 1074. allancalderini:
Hi Kori how you doing?Maybe 20% this morning.

Maybe that all depend on what it does during D-max

Quoting 1075. sar2401:

Look at the normal IR loop here instead of that raindow loop. It always looks worse than it is. It even shows convection ove Alabama when all we have is partly cloudy skies. The convection the IR loop does show is also far removed from there the center of 94L is supposed to be.


I looked at normal ir and rainbow and it doesn't make a hoot of difference I still see the same thing and I make no changes to what I said before on this
Eye pattern becoming apparent on satellite imagery:

Quoting 935. beell:
The eastern Atlantic wave entering the eastern Caribbean on the 00Z GFS late Tuesday.


00Z GFS 850mb vort @ 96 hrs
Quite interesting....any other models in agreement?
Quoting 979. AtHomeInTX:
A ways out. If I can get this to work.



looks to be just sw of Galveston on the GFS and further south to northern mexico for the GEM?
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013

...DALILA HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 112.9W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013

STUBBORNLY...DALILA REFUSES TO FADE. THIS EVENING...PERHAPS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RETURNED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE. THUS THE ANTICIPATED DEGENERATION OF DALILA INTO A REMNANT
LOW IS DELAYED...TEMPORARILY. BECAUSE OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
INDUCED BY TROPICAL STORM ERICK AND A COOLER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS...THIS REFOUND CONVECTION IN DALILA SHOULD NOT BE
LONG-LASTING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
SHORTLY AND THEN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.

DALILA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...AS THE EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE HAS NEARLY COLLAPSED. EITHER
A CONTINUED VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT OR ERRATIC MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 17.0N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 17.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/0600Z 17.0N 113.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0600Z 17.1N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0600Z 17.5N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013

...ERICK EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 103.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013

ERICK CONTINUES TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS
COLDER THAN -80C NEAR ITS CENTER...AND THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL
ATTEMPTS TO FORM AN EYE. HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE DATA
DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS HAVING TROUBLE
BECOMING VERTICALLY ALIGNED...WITH THE MID-LEVEL EYE CONSISTENTLY TO
THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS
AND THE OBSERVED STRUCTURE IN MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.

THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BASED ON
THE MICROWAVE DATA...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/7. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER ERICK GENERALLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE MOTION
BECOMING MORE WESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A STRONGER RIDGE
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE
THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD AND SOME SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER MODELS. THE GFS
MOVES THE STORM ONSHORE SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES...WHILE THE UKMET
AND GFDL MODELS BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BASED IN THE SHORT-TERM ON THE INITIAL
POSITION AND IN THE LONGER TERM BY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE. WHILE IT KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ON TO THE MEXICAN
COAST SIMILAR TO THE GFS FORECAST.

IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT HIT THE MEXICAN COAST...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN
TO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...ERICK SHOULD
MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH COULD BE AS
COLD AS 20-21C BY THE 96 HOUR POINT. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAPID
WEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT
LOW AROUND 96 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SINCE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN
TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 17.3N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 18.0N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 19.0N 105.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 20.3N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 21.5N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 23.0N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 24.0N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0600Z 24.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Darn patches came off after 1 day,had to tape them on and then they run out after 2 days instead of 3......I just do morphine extended and morphine immediate release, have been for 3-4 years
Anyone still here? 2 models say a tropical system with that current TW in the Atlantic?
Hibernation time huh?

Corpus Christi
Quoting 1088. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Hibernation time huh?

I'm here!
I havnt slept all night.:(
Im gonna go ahead and make a prediction. Be it wrong or right...that storm the GFS and CMC predict...is headed for the central TX coast. Id say Freeport TX.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Hibernation time huh?

I'm here
I was out cutting grass yesterday and noticed how dry the ground and grass was. Hoping for some nice beneficial rains here in Southeast Texas.
I am assuming that Erick is hindering the gulf system from getting more organized?
Quoting 995. Ed22:
I'm up and awake, watching the tropics very, very, very closely observing these three tropical disturbances, two out of the three or three of the tropical system could develop into something significant, I tell you guys right take my advorsies seriously. 40% to that disturbance in the GOM,10% to the one north of Puerto Rico and 20% to the tropical wave over the Eastern Atlantic once again life is returning the tropics.


Why are you giving 40% to GOM disturbance
Quoting 1094. polarcane:
I was out cutting grass yesterday and noticed how dry the ground and grass was. Hoping for some nice beneficial rains here in Southeast Texas.


amen. :-/////
Quoting Ed22:
I'm up and awake, watching the tropics very, very, very closely observing these three tropical disturbances, two out of the three or three of the tropical system could develop into something significant, I tell you guys right take my advorsies seriously. 40% to that disturbance in the GOM,10% to the one north of Puerto Rico and 20% to the tropical wave over the Eastern Atlantic once again life is returning the tropics.


Good luck with that

Bump.....

Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Wave SW of CV Islands still looks fairly good.

Quoting 1098. huntsvle:


amen. :-/////
Quoting 1094. polarcane:
I was out cutting grass yesterday and noticed how dry the ground and grass was. Hoping for some nice beneficial rains here in Southeast Texas.


Rain would be nice, but I don't want much more than that!
1103. SLU
Quoting 1023. nigel20:

Yeah, many areas in Jamaica is above 500m and most of the Blue mountains is above 1500m.

Same to you SLU!


Thanks. Have you ever climbed the Blue Mountains?
1104. RTLSNK
1105. SLU
Quoting 1027. sar2401:

Let's see, that would take an 11 foot tall rain gauge, and a crane to empty it. :-)


I wonder what "technology" they had to measure it in 1909.
Quoting 1095. polarcane:
I am assuming that Erick is hindering the gulf system from getting more organized?


Its outflow is contributing to a little westerly shear, yeah, but the trough over Louisiana appears to be the primary culrpit. That and the elongated vorticity envelope.
1107. SLU
Quoting 1101. Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Wave SW of CV Islands still looks fairly good.



Morning PR. Patiently waiting for you to post the invest 95L text on the blog this morning. :D
Quoting 1101. Tropicsweatherpr:
Wave SW of CV Islands still looks fairly good.



The system remains embedded within the ITCZ, which is helping it to sustain convection. The main inhibitors for development are the interaction with the ITCZ and dry air. We should see more of these vigorous and stronger tropical waves during the next several weeks as atmospheric conditions will gradually become more favorable for development in the MDR.
Quoting 1107. SLU:


Morning PR. Patiently waiting for you to post the invest 95L text on the blog this morning. :D
Do we have 95 L this morning.
Quoting 1107. SLU:


Morning PR. Patiently waiting for you to post the invest 95L text on the blog this morning. :D


Implying there is, or will be, a 95L. :P
maybe by tonight we will have invest 95L
1113. SLU
Quoting 1109. HurricaneAndre:
Do we have 95 L this morning.


Anytime now I suppose...
lol, this Gulf system is so pathetic. I'd rather not waste a name on this garbage.
1115. SLU
Quoting 1110. KoritheMan:


Implying there is, or will be, a 95L. :P


I see no reason why it won't be!
Quoting 1115. SLU:


I see no reason why it won't be!


But it's still a nameless tropical wave right now, and that's all that counts! :P
LOOK AT 30 WEST NOW A NICE SPIN NOW,
Quoting 1107. SLU:


Morning PR. Patiently waiting for you to post the invest 95L text on the blog this morning. :D


Good morning SLU. Well,I think Neapolitan is the one who does that but If I see it first then I may post it. I agree that at least it deserves invest status even if nothing occurs down the road.
Here it is!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307061125
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2013, DB, O, 2013070606, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952013
AL, 95, 2013070606, , BEST, 0, 77N, 307W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
See that? Ask and ye shall receive... ;-)
YES!
1122. SLU
Quoting 1116. KoritheMan:


But it's still a nameless tropical wave right now, and that's all that counts! :P


On a more serious note, it's very bad seeing such a wave so far east in early July especially in a year with such a mega death ridge hanging around. Not a good sign for the rest of the year.
Quoting 1116. KoritheMan:


But it's still a nameless tropical wave right now, and that's all that counts! :P


Nameless?
We get an invest as soon as I get up, Nice thing to wake up to
So what percentage do you think the NHC WILL GIVE 95-L. I think 30-40%.
Got one inch within the last 30min, nice.
Quoting 1125. HurricaneAndre:
So what percentage do you think the NHC WILL GIVE 95-L. I think 30-40%.


20%
First model plots.

WHXX01 KWBC 061136
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1136 UTC SAT JUL 6 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952013) 20130706 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130706 0600 130706 1800 130707 0600 130707 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 7.7N 30.7W 8.2N 33.2W 9.0N 36.3W 10.1N 40.1W
BAMD 7.7N 30.7W 7.9N 33.8W 8.4N 36.9W 9.3N 40.4W
BAMM 7.7N 30.7W 8.1N 33.8W 8.7N 37.1W 9.7N 40.8W
LBAR 7.7N 30.7W 7.9N 34.1W 8.5N 37.8W 9.5N 42.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130708 0600 130709 0600 130710 0600 130711 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.4N 44.4W 14.6N 53.6W 18.3N 62.2W 21.8N 68.2W
BAMD 10.6N 43.9W 13.4N 50.9W 16.1N 56.3W 17.0N 58.8W
BAMM 10.9N 44.8W 13.9N 52.8W 17.1N 59.8W 19.5N 64.2W
LBAR 10.8N 46.4W 13.9N 55.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 58KTS 64KTS 63KTS 62KTS
DSHP 58KTS 64KTS 63KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 7.7N LONCUR = 30.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 7.6N LONM12 = 27.7W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 7.4N LONM24 = 24.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.
Quoting 1129. Tropicsweatherpr:
First model plots.

WHXX01 KWBC 061136
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1136 UTC SAT JUL 6 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952013) 20130706 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130706 0600 130706 1800 130707 0600 130707 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 7.7N 30.7W 8.2N 33.2W 9.0N 36.3W 10.1N 40.1W
BAMD 7.7N 30.7W 7.9N 33.8W 8.4N 36.9W 9.3N 40.4W
BAMM 7.7N 30.7W 8.1N 33.8W 8.7N 37.1W 9.7N 40.8W
LBAR 7.7N 30.7W 7.9N 34.1W 8.5N 37.8W 9.5N 42.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130708 0600 130709 0600 130710 0600 130711 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.4N 44.4W 14.6N 53.6W 18.3N 62.2W 21.8N 68.2W
BAMD 10.6N 43.9W 13.4N 50.9W 16.1N 56.3W 17.0N 58.8W
BAMM 10.9N 44.8W 13.9N 52.8W 17.1N 59.8W 19.5N 64.2W
LBAR 10.8N 46.4W 13.9N 55.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 58KTS 64KTS 63KTS 62KTS
DSHP 58KTS 64KTS 63KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 7.7N LONCUR = 30.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 7.6N LONM12 = 27.7W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 7.4N LONM24 = 24.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Looks like rapid strengthening.
LOOKS LIKE 95L IS HEADING MY WAY XD

LOOKS LIKE MORE ACTION BEHIND 95L.
95L in visible light:

95L

...and enhanced IR:

95L
1135. SLU
Quoting 1119. Tropicsweatherpr:
Here it is!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al952013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307061125
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2013, DB, O, 2013070606, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952013
AL, 95, 2013070606, , BEST, 0, 77N, 307W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


lol .. right on time
Last night,who said that we will have 95L in the first light.Whoever it is your right.
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 061150
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TOWARD THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

95L
95 doubt if it makes it to the windwards 94 in no hurry but will be classified with the C name learned long time ago never bet against a system in the gulf
Quoting 1137. HurricaneAndre:


Models will probably re adjust southward...
1143. SLU
20% and stronger language on 95L
Quoting 1139. allancalderini:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 061150
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TOWARD THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Maybe 30%,later at the 2pm TWO.
1145. SLU
Quoting 1142. CaribBoy:


Models will probably re adjust southward...


Yeh the system will probably move in the same path as the Euro and GFS which take it just north of Barbados on Tuesday and south of PR by Wednesday.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TOWARD THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting 1141. islander101010:
95 doubt if it makes it to the windwards 94 in no hurry but will be classified with the C name


95L seems to have a better shot overall. 94L is still a mess
Quoting 1145. SLU:


Yeh the system will probably move in the same path as the Euro and GFS which take it just north of Barbados on Tuesday and south of PR by Wednesday.


Will be very interesting to watch .. assuming it doesn't die before the islands lol.
Quoting 1149. Hurricanes101:


95L seems to have a better shot overall. 94L is still a mess
Agree 95L has more time as 94L is about to get inland tomorrow.
i have picked 94 to be a C storm due to 95 is in no-no land 101 climatology and 94...its in the gulf
1154. SLU
Invest 95L
As of 06:00 UTC Jul 06, 2013:

Location: 7.7°N 30.7°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM
You can come over a my blog too.Link
1156. SLU
Quoting 1150. CaribBoy:


Will be very interesting to watch .. assuming it doesn't die before the islands lol.


Yup .. it's gonna be a long Cape Verde season.
HERE IS INVEST 95L is look much better then invest 94L IS
1158. SLU
Using the BAMM track, the SHIPS calls for robust windshear in 3 days but the system will probably stay further south and thus further away from the shear.


SHEAR (KT) 10 13 14 11 8 3 3 5 21 26 35 35 35
IS 95L expected to develop per models? I've been too busy to keep track lately
Quoting 1159. GeorgiaStormz:
IS 95L expected to develop per models? I've been too busy to keep track lately
Models show a very strong tropical wave in the vicinity of the islands but that's it due to land interaction and increase in shear.However they did the same thing with Ernesto.If 95L can stay further south into the caribbean it may have a shot at becoming a storm before or after it reaches the caribbean.
So which one is Chantal and which one is Dorian?
Oh, my, does the season REALLY have to start so early? I am looking at 95L and thinking, "I am going on a week vacation on the 14th...so, OF COURSE, something is starting to form! LOL Now I have to seriously keep an eye on this one and the blob that broke off from the trough and try to pack and work and arrange for someone to take care of the cat and watch the tropics and.....whew, I am tired already! Looks like a we may be in for a long hurricane season as Cape Verde season has not even officially started yet. Payday yesterday so heading out for the Fresca and Cheetos and a little adult additive to the Fresca!
I thought I would be the first to post about all the record cold being set in the mid-south the past 2 days.
Record low HIGHS for July 4
Murfreesboro, TN 70
Nashville, TN 71
Huntsville, AL 71
Bowling Green, KY 71
Decatur, AL 71
All of these records beat the old record by 3 degrees or more! What makes this even more stunning is that all of these cities had their hottest July 4th on record last year except Decatur, AL.
1165. RTLSNK



Oscat caught half the circulation of 95L last night shows TS force winds already.
Quoting 1162. slavicthunder:
So which one is Chantal and which one is Dorian?
94L is so pathetic that I wouldn't be surprised it doesn't get a name.It's running out of time as well.
Quoting SLU:


Thanks. Have you ever climbed the Blue Mountains?

I have, but it's more like a mountain range.
Quoting 1164. volsweather:
I thought I would be the first to post about all the record cold being set in the mid-south the past 2 days.
Record low HIGHS for July 4
Murfreesboro, TN 70
Nashville, TN 71
Huntsville, AL 71
Bowling Green, KY 71
Decatur, AL 71
All of these records beat the old record by 3 degrees or more! What makes this even more stunning is that all of these cities had their hottest July 4th on record last year except Decatur, AL.


It's that pesky jet stream. It's persisting in the same place for longer and the 'loops' are causing record heat, cold, drought and floods, depending on where they're sitting.
95L is doing good!
1171. ryang
95L looks interesting. Could be a squally couple of days for us when it arrives.
Come on NHC, drop 94L, it's pathetic. a waste of 20%. Shift your focus to the C-ATL and 95L. looking better and has model support.
Quoting 1167. washingtonian115:
94L is so pathetic that I wouldn't be surprised it doesn't get a name.It's running out of time as well.
Agree its pathethic that it has the same 20% that 95L have.
1174. Grothar
Quoting 1174. Grothar:


Blobtastic!
1177. SLU
Quoting 1168. AussieStorm:

I have, but it's more like a mountain range.


Interesting..
1178. SLU
Quoting 1171. ryang:
95L looks interesting. Could be a squally couple of days for us when it arrives.


It should be near Barbados by sunrise on Tuesday.
Good morning, everyone. Afternoon Barabamz and VR. Evening, Aussie. A pleasant 68 degrees with a high of 91 expected and the possibility of rain later this afternoon. Fingers crossed for the rain for my garden.

What's the latest on the blob that may possibly head for the LA/TX area? Are we going to get a good rain event or will the trough send it east of us?

Breakfast's on the Sideboard: cheesy ham and hash brown casserole, overnight blueberry French toast, scrambled egg whites with peppers and salsa, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, strawberry and blueberry breakfast pie, bacon or Canadian ham, fresh fruit and orange juice. Look for the little cards with a red heart on them for heart healthy! Enjoy!
Quoting 1173. allancalderini:
Agree its pathethic that it has the same 20% that 95L have.
Perhaps they haven't dropped it yet completely is because gulf storms can spin up fast.But thanks to the trough and Erick this thing isn't spinning up any time soon.
12z Best Track for 95L.

AL, 95, 2013070612, , BEST, 0, 78N, 326W, 25, 1009, LO
1182. Grothar
The NCEP has been showing development in the region of 95L for a couple of days now.


1183. ryang
Quoting 1178. SLU:


It should be near Barbados by sunrise on Tuesday.


I'll be watching. You never know with these systems. I remember Emily in 2005 was around this same time as well.
1184. SLU
AL, 95, 2013070612, , BEST, 0, 78N, 326W, 25, 1009, LO
1185. SLU
Quoting 1183. ryang:


I'll be watching. You never know with these systems. I remember Emily in 2005 was around this same time as well.


Yup. She turned out to be a monster, didn't she.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Perhaps they haven't dropped it yet completely is because gulf storms can spin up fast.But thanks to the trough and Erick this thing isn't spinning up any time soon.

and for that reason, it should be dropped. It's not going to just sit there til the trough and Erick is gone then spring to life.
Quoting 1180. washingtonian115:
Perhaps they haven't dropped it yet completely is because gulf storms can spin up fast.But thanks to the trough and Erick this thing isn't spinning up any time soon.
Maybe I believe the NHC put attention to 95L after what happen with 92L.I believe they don`t want to do the same mistake as that invest was probably a td.
CaribBoy,look at the 12z tracks.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1228 UTC SAT JUL 6 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952013) 20130706 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130706 1200 130707 0000 130707 1200 130708 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 7.8N 32.6W 8.3N 35.7W 9.3N 39.4W 10.7N 43.9W
BAMD 7.8N 32.6W 8.1N 35.7W 8.8N 39.1W 9.9N 42.7W
BAMM 7.8N 32.6W 8.3N 35.8W 9.2N 39.4W 10.3N 43.3W
LBAR 7.8N 32.6W 8.2N 36.1W 8.9N 40.1W 10.1N 44.4W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130708 1200 130709 1200 130710 1200 130711 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 48.9W 16.3N 59.0W 20.5N 67.5W 24.0N 72.4W
BAMD 11.3N 46.3W 14.2N 53.1W 16.2N 58.0W 15.7N 61.2W
BAMM 11.8N 47.4W 15.0N 55.5W 18.2N 62.1W 19.9N 65.8W
LBAR 11.4N 48.9W 14.7N 57.8W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 58KTS 59KTS 59KTS
DSHP 53KTS 58KTS 59KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 7.8N LONCUR = 32.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 7.7N LONM12 = 29.4W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 7.5N LONM24 = 26.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Quoting 1186. AussieStorm:

and for that reason, it should be dropped. It's not going to just sit there til the trough and Erick is gone then spring to life.

It'll be a heavy rain event none the less.

Quoting 1187.

allancalderini:

Maybe I believe the NHC put attention to 95L after what happen with 92L.I believe they don`t want to do the same mistake as that invest was probably a td.



92L had climo going against it.Even though it was a T.S 12 hours before the NHC noticed it.They weren't so conservative with this one because climo favors it somewhat.
Quoting 1189. Tropicsweatherpr:
CaribBoy,look at the 12z tracks.



I think they are too far north. I'm favoring a track (LLC) between Martinique and Antigua, but I really hope the rain will extend as far north as 18/19N lol
Quoting 1190. washingtonian115:

It'll be a heavy rain event none the less.




92L had climo going against it.Even though it was a T.S 12 hours before the NHC noticed it.They weren't so conservative with this one because climo favors it somewhat.
I see.Do you believe 95L would become Chantal?
Quoting 1192. allancalderini:
I see.Do you believe 95L would become Chantal?
we have two green here are we going to have invest 96L BY NEXT WEEK TO..SOMEONE HELP ME OUT HERE.
95L is definitely spinning!
Quoting 1164. volsweather:
I thought I would be the first to post about all the record cold being set in the mid-south the past 2 days.
Record low HIGHS for July 4
Murfreesboro, TN 70
Nashville, TN 71
Huntsville, AL 71
Bowling Green, KY 71
Decatur, AL 71
All of these records beat the old record by 3 degrees or more! What makes this even more stunning is that all of these cities had their hottest July 4th on record last year except Decatur, AL.
Definitely some anomalous cold there, while the West bakes. It's startling to see a map with records plotted; for instance, one look at Wednesday's record highs and lows tells you that the jet stream is definitely acting up (as Yonzabam pointed out):

highs

And here's one for the past week:

highs
8AM
1198. Grothar


TWC is saying they've made that blob straight south in the GOM is back to being an invest, in the last hour it has begun to have a little spin.
1200. centex
We better watch 94L today, it has best chance in next 48 hours. Also shear is dropping and closest to conus.
12z Best Track for Erick up to 65kts.

EP, 05, 2013070612, , BEST, 0, 175N, 1042W, 65, 987, HU
Quoting 1181. Tropicsweatherpr:
12z Best Track for 95L.

AL, 95, 2013070612, , BEST, 0, 78N, 326W, 25, 1009, LO
wow 1009 mb low
Good morning everyone.Seems like the tropics are starting to get active.Hope everyone has taken the time during quiet period to get all their Hurricane Preparations in order.
1204. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WINDS...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
A FEW RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
COULD EXACERBATE CONDITIONS AND CAUSE A FURTHER INCREASE IN WATER
LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS. SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

CARLISLE
Quoting 1196. Neapolitan:
Definitely some anomalous cold there, while the West bakes. It's startling to see a map with records plotted; for instance, one look at Wednesday's record highs and lows tells you that the jet stream is definitely acting up (as Yonzabam pointed out):

highs

And here's one for the past week:

highs


Mornin' Nea (and everyone) -
Nice graphic...link maybe?
1206. pcola57
Good Morning All..
Currently 74 degrees with 97%rh and dew at 73..
Winds a mild 4mph from the WNW..
Overcast and raining lightly..
Pressure up from yesterday and is 30.03..

Beach sames as yesterday..
Cloudy,rainy,with a very rough surf..
Red flags flying..
Local business taking quite a hit from this weather..
I guess if your business depends on the weather then you roll the dice..

Cold isn't in his vocabulary.Anywho I think it would be funny if Dorian becomes a cape verde storm just like Dean was 6 years ago.The irony.
95L
1209. pcola57
Quoting 1207. washingtonian115:
Cold isn't in his vocabulary.Anywho I think it would be funny if Dorian becomes a cape verde storm just like Dean was 6 years ago.The irony.


Morning Washi..
Missed being here yesterday..
How did the weather work out for you on the 4th?
We got lucky here and was overcast with no showers albeit very muggy..
Fireworks went as planned and friends and family had a large time..
1210. etxwx
Good morning, afternoon and evening all.
Quoting 1207. washingtonian115:
Cold isn't in his vocabulary.Anywho I think it would be funny if Dorian becomes a cape verde storm just like Dean was 6 years ago.The irony.


that would be coincidence.
its ironic how many people don't know how to use irony correctly.

and we would need Chantal first. so, simmer down.
Good morning everyone, I see we have 95L. Pretty good appearance for a July T-wave. With favorable conditions ahead, it seems this could be our next storm...unless 94L somehow beats it.
Quoting 1209. pcola57:


Morning Washi..
Missed being here yesterday..
How did the weather work out for you on the 4th?
We got lucky here and was overcast with no showers albeit very muggy..
Fireworks went as planned and friends and family had a large time..
The weather was perfect here.Your average 90 degree day with mugginess added to the mix of things.But it was spectacular.
Quoting 1211. BaltOCane:


that would be coincidence.
its ironic how many people don't know how to use irony correctly.

and we would need Chantal first. so, simmer down.


The mess in the Western GOM or the other disturbance that Dr. Master's talked about being near Florida by early next week will be named Chantal
Quoting 1211. BaltOCane:


that would be coincidence.
its ironic how many people don't know how to use irony correctly.

and we would need Chantal first. so, simmer down.
Sigh..one of these people again..oh dear me like I don't see the obvious mess in the gulf and the defined low pressure south of the cape verde islands...Yep we will surely somehow skip over the C name but I don't know.Perhaps the NHC wants to pad their numbers again.lol.The models are showing MORE impressive waves coming off in the next few weeks.I doubt anything becomes much of 94L.95L might have a chance of developing.IF the next few waves that come off decide to develop one might be Dorian.It is IRONIC because Dean was also a cape verde storm.Yep the NHC is sure trying to pad their numbers..
Good Morning All,

I see they still playing with Crayons over at the NHC... WOW 95L where are you going???? mmmmmmm

We here in Mobile AL where I'm at have had 3.06" of rain since midnight. Looks like more to come....
Everyone have a Safe Weekend if you live on the Gulf Coast....

Taco :o)
1217. pcola57
Quoting 1213. washingtonian115:
The weather was perfect here.Your average 90 degree day with mugginess added to the mix of things.But it was spectacular.


Thats grand..
So glad families like yours could enjoy the special day..
I bet the Deet worked well and your meal was supurb!!
We got those monster musquitoes here now but have yet to be attacked..Lol.. :)
Brother flying back home to Prescott Valley Arizona today..
Thank goodness the fire near there,Yarnell, is under control..
Beautiful area..
May God protect him and all there..
Good Morning guys, we have 95L this could be a sleeper like I was talking about yesterday. The reason the models are so far north is because the High is expected to weaken allowing it to head WNW probably right near Puerto Rico the models are actually surprisingly in a agreement with a general W to WNW as the steering current are not as complicated as it normally is especially if this spin before the Islands then the Northern track will be even more likely.
Quoting 1217. pcola57:


Thats grand..
So glad families like yours could enjoy the special day..
I bet the Deet worked well and your meal was supurb!!
We got those monster musquitoes here now but have yet to be attacked..Lol.. :)
Brother flying back home to Prescott Valley Arizona today..
Thank goodness the fire near there,Yarnell, is under control..
Beautiful area..
May God protect him and all there..
The food was very good with your classic selection of the all american menu with some things added to the mix like seafood salad.I was full after the cook out and saved some left overs.I'm sure the humidity and constant rain probably bothered your brother somewhat.Not normal things you see in Arizona.
I'm very impressed with 95L. Very vigorous circulation with it and it's sustaining convection.

Vis Floater
Not bad.
Quoting centex:
We better watch 94L today, it has best chance in next 48 hours. Also shear is dropping and closest to conus.


Don't Low's spin anti-clockwise in the northern hemisphere?


all i see is clockwise movement.


this looks very interesting levi will do a tibet most likely gulf storm becomes chantal
Quoting 1208. SFLWeatherman:
95L


The system is already showing signs of curve banding developing with some good outflow I think the NHC is being really conservative right now with a 20% chance and conditions is already very favorable I would give this at least 40% by 2pm. ULAC may start to develop as there is plenty of latent heat to keep the atmosphere conductive, the only problem is SAL where the Lesser Antilles are it would need a good moisture field and some good outflow to try and neutralize it. After that is a hugh question mark.
1225. pcola57
Quoting 1220. MississippiWx:
I'm very impressed with 95L. Very vigorous circulation with it and it's sustaining convection.

Vis Floater


95L looks very healthy..
And seems to be moving along at quite a clip..
15-20mph so says the NHC..
This one is gonna be a good one to track..
Picked up 3.2 inches of rain over last 24 hours bringing storm total to 5.7 inches.

Storm patrol posted something with Ascat? showing tropical storm force winds already..sounds familiar..
95L looks very healthy.. very nice spin to it
Morning All.

Been moving the past week. Can anyone tell me if there is any merit in Dr. Masters comment about the ULL being worth watching for development?
1230. pcola57
Quoting 1219. washingtonian115:
The food was very good with your classic selection of the all american menu with some things added to the mix like seafood salad.I was full after the cook out and saved some left overs.I'm sure the humidity and constant rain probably bothered your brother somewhat.Not normal things you see in Arizona.


Yeah the humidity humbled him..
We called him the A/C man..Lol..
He is a large man..6'6 and 250lbs..
Sweated like a baby..Lol..
Gonna miss him..
Last visit was 2yrs. ago..
1231. centex
Quoting 1222. AussieStorm:


Don't Low's spin anti-clockwise in the northern hemisphere?


all i see is clockwise movement.
Give it some time conditions are improving.
Quoting 1226. Astrometeor:
Picked up 3.2 inches of rain over last 24 hours bringing storm total to 5.7 inches.


Your welcome :o) Compliments of the Gulf Coast :o)
Although you probably have had enough. Just Saying :o)

Taco :o)
Quoting 1222. AussieStorm:


Don't Low's spin anti-clockwise in the northern hemisphere?


all i see is clockwise movement.


dont worry it is spinning anti-clockwise look at a radar
SAL is a very strong negative factor for 95L

Otherwise it's under light wind shear and the waters in the region are 1-2 degrees above normal at about 29C

I don't think it will develop, but it might get pretty close.
95L reminds me of Igor's depression. 95L definately has a surface circulation and is sustaining convection. It's also in and heading toward a favorable atmosphere. It just needs to miss the SAL..
Quoting 1234. Stormchaser2007:
SAL is a very strong negative factor for 95L

Otherwise it's under light wind shear and the waters in the region are 1-2 degrees above normal at about 29C

I don't think it will develop, but it might get pretty close.

I just don't think it will until after it get's by the Leaser Antilles. Yes SAR will keep it at bay but after that who Knows?????

Taco :o)
1237. pcola57
Quoting 1216. taco2me61:
Good Morning All,

I see they still playing with Crayons over at the NHC... WOW 95L where are you going???? mmmmmmm

We here in Mobile AL where I'm at have had 3.06" of rain since midnight. Looks like more to come....
Everyone have a Safe Weekend if you live on the Gulf Coast....

Taco :o)


Morning Taco..
Looks like Mobile and here are gonna get a lot more rain today..
Right now it's straight down heavy rain at my place..
My WU weather page shows no rain since midnight but I know better that that.. :)



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/mob/graphicast /image3.gif
its going to be a tropical d in 48 hours from now.
1239. Grothar
Quoting 1229. ProgressivePulse:
Morning All.

Been moving the past week. Can anyone tell me if there is any merit in Dr. Masters comment about the ULL being worth watching for development?


Yes, it may not look like much now, but it still has to be watched closely. It may not be much, but some models still want to do something with it.

Quoting 1234. Stormchaser2007:
SAL is a very strong negative factor for 95L

Otherwise it's under light wind shear and the waters in the region are 1-2 degrees above normal at about 29C

I don't think it will develop, but it might get pretty close.


If it can evade it with the low latitude track for the most part then is liftoff.
Quoting 1234. Stormchaser2007:
SAL is a very strong negative factor for 95L

Otherwise it's under light wind shear and the waters in the region are 1-2 degrees above normal at about 29C

I don't think it will develop, but it might get pretty close.


Looking at the SAL map it not as bad as it seems its being organizing with some dust right to it north which is why most of the outflow is developing on its south side. If this an ventilate itself properly I dont see much in the way of SAL disrupting it circulation at all. We finally have something to watch but we need to watch it Carefully. As it has a good chance of closing off a low before reaching the Lesser Antilles.



Quoting 1234. Stormchaser2007:
SAL is a very strong negative factor for 95L

Otherwise it's under light wind shear and the waters in the region are 1-2 degrees above normal at about 29C

I don't think it will develop, but it might get pretty close.


One could argue that it's already a tropical depression.

Link
sometimes these july wannabees outrun themselves
Quoting 1237. pcola57:


Morning Taco..
Looks like Mobile and here are gonna get a lot more rain today..
Right now it's straight down heavy rain at my place..
My WU weather page shows no rain since midnight but I know better that that.. :)



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/mob/graphicast /image3.gif


Oh yea you have had some Rain that's for sure.... Since I posted that I'm up to 3.42" and rain has slowed down but that's it, slowed down.... Lots of Moisture still coming from the Gulf almost at a due North movement.
Try to stay Dry anyway....

Taco :o)
Does anyone think 05l will recurve out to sea?
Quoting 1242. MississippiWx:


One could argue that it's already a tropical depression.

Link
if we get new t.storms in the center it will be a tropical d soon.
Quoting 1238. hurricanes2018:
its going to be a tropical d in 48 hours from now.

if it maintains it's structure
Quoting 1232. taco2me61:

Your welcome :o) Compliments of the Gulf Coast :o)
Although you probably have had enough. Just Saying :o)

Taco :o)


Yeah, although I think this time the Army Corps knows how to deal with multi-day heavy rain events. The rain is comes down in batches, so the streams and rivers are able to carry it off without too much pressure.
Quoting 1221. CybrTeddy:
Not bad.
looks pretty good

Quoting 1242. MississippiWx:


One could argue that it's already a tropical depression.

Link
Certainly the best looking invest all year, unfortunately Recon does not go that far to investigate a suspected area east of the Lesser Antilles, However the NHC is being really conservative with this system its organizing with convection over the well define LLC, clearing have some banding feature to its south feeding moisture from the ITCZ into its circulation thus slowing the SAL from doing much. I think this develop by at least Sunday afternoon as long as it continues to organize. Thanks for the link it does look like a depression or very close to being one.   
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1253. hydrus
Quoting 1235. JrWeathermanFL:
95L reminds me of Igor's depression. 95L definately has a surface circulation and is sustaining convection. It's also in and heading toward a favorable atmosphere. It just needs to miss the SAL..
Absolutely. I mentioned yesterday that 95L was textbook on the satellite image, and the waves with those characteristics usually, but not always, develop.
1254. beell
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 06 2013

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE WAS RELOCATED FARTHER EAST TO ALIGN WITH A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. AXIS IS CURRENTLY ALONG 19N32W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 7N30W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER SURROUNDS THE WAVE...WHICH IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE AXIS EXCEPT NEAR THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 30W-34W...
The waters do support something anomalous happening out in the CATL though.


1256. Grothar
It looks like all preliminary models have 95L North of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in 5-6 days. It looks so good in form that it may not be far away from depression status.


And 94L is looking better in each frame.


Quoting caribbeantracker01:


dont worry it is spinning anti-clockwise look at a radar

Got a link?
1258. hydrus
Quoting 1256. Grothar:
It looks like all preliminary models have 95L North of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in 5-6 days. It looks so good in form that it may not be far away from depression status.


And 94L is looking better in each frame.


And with all that shear......... If conditions were to become more favorable, 94L could be a potential problem for some folks.
1259. hydrus
We are getting drenched here on the plateau again.
Quoting 1256. Grothar:
It looks like all preliminary models have 95L North of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in 5-6 days. It looks so good in form that it may not be far away from depression status.


And 94L is looking better in each frame.




Gulp! Gro, is my house in the path of 95L?
Shear is more than favorable for this to quickly develop once it closes off its circulation. STJ is not as dominant as it was in June as is only being enhanced by the ULL which will move west and allow Shear to lessen. Notice on the east edge shear is actually decreasing which suggest to me if it get going then an anticyclone will form over it and the STJ will only stop it from deepen out into a Hurricane. That why intensity models are showing it becoming a strong TS but not a Hurricane but once it get past that I see this deepen into a possible Hurricane near the Bahamas or in the Caribbean if it stay weak and head further south.
Well, I thought the big trail of rain was going to come into Louisiana today, as the center of the invest was supposed to be moving north, but it doesn't look like that's happening. Florida got a ton of rain yesterday, and it looks like they'll get it again today in the panhandle.

I don't see any significant development with the storm yet. No obvious circulation. Shear is still around, but not as bad as previously. It may just remain a "disturbance" all the way to landfall.


Edit:

Did notice the official info on the invest says it slowed down it's movement. I guess that's the one thing which may give it an opportunity to develop in the long term, because it still needs a lot of work.
Lowest pressure on a buoy is 29.87, or 1011.5mb. This is the buoy just off shore from Brownsville, Texas.


Station 42045
TABS
Location: 26.217N 96.5W
Date: Sat, 06 Jul 2013 13:30:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (60°) at 5.8 kt gusting to 5.8 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.87 in
Air Temperature: 80.1 F
Dew Point: 71.2 F
View Details - View History



Of course, there's no buoy near the official center fix, so no way of knowing.
New GFS is bringing the 95L in south of the Hispaniola and Cuba throughout the run. Keeps it as a weak TD/TS or just a disorganized wave the whole way.

GFS 850mb vorticity forecast suggests it would be a TD or TS as it passes the Lesser Antilles, but then it dies out again near DR and Haiti.
Hey guy I knew we would have 95L now we got stuff to track