WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Gulf of Mexico storm not likely to become a depression; storm kills 11 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:38 PM GMT on May 22, 2009

The large extratropical storm that has been pounding Florida and the Bahamas this week with heavy rain and high surf extended its reach yesterday, killing at least 11 people in Haiti. According to Reuters, most of the victims were killed while crossing rivers or when their flimsy homes collapsed. Approximately six inches of rain fell on Haiti's southwest peninsula in the 24 hours ending at 8pm EDT. Hundreds of homes were flooded and dozens destroyed in the flooding, which left 40% of the southern city of Cayes underwater. The impoverished Caribbean country is still struggling to recover from the massive flooding that killed over 800 people during the hurricane season of 2008. In March, UN chief Ban Ki-moon and Bill Clinton--who was this week appointed UN special envoy to the island--toured Haiti together and urged the international community to continue to aid the country. Participants at a Washington international donors conference in April agreed to donate $324 million to help Haiti rebuild.

The worst of the rain and flooding is over for Florida, which has seen rainfall amounts this week as high as 23.75 inches at the Flagler County Fairgrounds. Another 1 - 2 inches are expected in Northeast Florida today from the storm, along with beach erosion, 6 - 8 foot waves, and tides 1 - 2 feet above normal. The bad weather in Northeast Florida should subside substantially on Saturday.


Figure 1. Long range radar out of New Orleans.

The storm responsible for the heavy rains is now headed north-northwest, and should make landfall Saturday near the Louisiana/Mississippi border. The storm has developed a warm core at low levels, and NHC designated it Invest 90L late this morning. Latest visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity on the east side of the storm's circulation, but development is being hindered by dry air, and wind shear of 20 knots. Long range radar out of New Orleans (Figure 1) shows little organization or banding of the radar echoes. With only 24 hours to go until the system moves inland, it does not have enough time to develop into a depression. Since there will be strong winds from the west creating wind shear over the storm, plus dry air to the storm's west, most of the heavy rain should be confined to the east of the storm's center, along a stretch of coast from New Orleans to Pensacola. Rainfall totals of 2 - 4 inches can be expected.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.

I'll have an update Saturday.

Portlight.org/wunderground shirts are now available on Ebay.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Another interesting feature.


Doubt anything will become of it.. but you never know.


where is that
Quoting Drakoen:


I don't mind it.


Same here...I'm enjoying it. But if I get another inch the water will be at my door. Can't see my street or my sidewalk right now.
Where do you go to find rainfall totals for your area? That is the one part of my weather station that is broken and I can't figure out how to fix it.
1504. Drakoen
Looks like a steady stream of moderate to heavy rain. Favorable flow of the Atlantic.
Doesn't it cost TONS of money when they issue a TS or Hurricane Warning? I think it was better not to name it , just doesn't seem like that big of a deal storm.
Quoting Drakoen:


I don't mind it.
Me either. Right now I'd rather have the overcast skies than the heat, humidity, and glare. I'm sure we'll have more than enough of that later this summer.
I downloaded the aba software,are you streaming now oz???
1508. Patrap
Another cool morning in NOLA.
Low Clouds,swirling thru.

Not a drop of precip.

Rivercam
Quoting PELLSPROG:
Doesn't it cost TONS of money when they issue a TS or Hurricane Warning? I think it was better not to name it , just doesn't seem like that big of a deal storm.
Poeple are reporting WIND damage in grand bay
1510. hahaguy
Quoting Drakoen:


I don't mind it.


Me either since we only got 2 or 3 inches this week.
I accept that "the low" didn't meet the present criteria for getting a name from the NHC. So the NHC did not stub their TWO on this one. Storms in the Northwest (Conus) are given names that stick by: the public?,the media?, so they can tell them apart. WE are the WU & we can call it anything we want to. Ideas?: Animals? Cars? Square root of 7? @#$%&!?

BTW, due to @#$%&!
"Space shuttle Atlantis and a crew of seven astronauts will spend another day in orbit before returning to Earth. Mission Control in Houston has waved off Saturday's landing opportunities in Florida because of weather conditions. NASA is aiming for a landing at Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Sunday at 10:11 a.m. EDT if weather permits. Weather is favorable at the backup landing site at Edwards Air Force Base in California, and that site may be utilized if the forecast at Kennedy does not improve."

1512. Drakoen
Quoting Patrap:
Another cool morning in NOLA.
Low Clouds,swirling thru.

Not a drop of precip.

Rivercam


You guys are on the dry side. Probably not gonna see much if anything at all.
1513. beell
Wow it was bad this morning.... Winds were at 45MPH.... This is crazy you would have thought it was a Tropical Storm coming a shore....

Taco :0)
1515. Patrap
Why ,,er..tyvm Capt.


We do have radar..LOL
Don't you love how we were in Serious Drought mode last week here in South Fl and we really didn't get THAT much rain and the tv weather people are already saying " Well it looks like we are FINALLY getting this system out of here" ? Every time we need the rain you hear them saying this(quote) "Oh we are really needing the rain, then it rains a LITTLE bit and then right away they sound as if it's better if it stops already (confused)

Your thoughts if you are with me camera guy :)
1517. Drakoen
The surface center of 90L coming onshore.
Looks like one more good blast of rain and it will be out of here. I'm glad it's moving north quickly and saving my BBQ tomorrow!

Mobile Radar
We have had 1.7" of rain sence midnite.... That was from my Rain Gage in back yeard....

WTIO21 PGTW 230530
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2N 88.1E TO 20.6N 88.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.5N 88.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1N
86.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 88.2E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH
OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
222349Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 222349Z
QUIKSCAT IMAGE (AS WELL AS AN EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE) SUPPORT A 25-30
KNOT LLCC WITH STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE
CONVECTION. THIS LLCC HAS BECOME STRONGER AND MORE DEFINED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
INDIA. THE LLCC IS ALSO LOCATED OVER VERY WARM SST AND HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT WITH VERY HIGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (GREATER
THAN 62 MM). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LACKING OVER THE LLCC, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE QUICKLY IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
FORECAST TO IMPROVE AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER INDIA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 240530Z.//
NNNN

Quoting StormSurgeon:
Looks like one more good blast of rain and it will be out of here. I'm glad it's moving north quickly and saving my BBQ tomorrow!

Mobile Radar


Thats the good thing about this thing.... It will be out of here by this afternoon....
I will get the ribs ready....
Hey all...
We got just over 2 1/4 inch last night. Just emptied gauge & its raining again. : (
I'd appreciate a rating if u have the time.







These were all taken on Cable Beach, which is the area on New Providence where many of the larger hotels are located. It's amazing to think that just out of view of the camera there are hotels with hundreds of rooms for thousands of tourists. Of course the weather kept some people off the beach. . .
there you have it!!!,dolphin island 41mph sustained winds!!!this should have been atleast TS,IMO
Good Morning everyone!
After looking at 90L last night it seemed like it put on a really good burst of convection and tried to wrap up in it. Probably a time issue with the development. Anyways, best of luck to all of you that are getting all the rain and wind.

Weather456 where do you have the pic posted at. I will go rate it if you tell me... thanks!

Also between 90L and the cold front that pushed through the Northern GOM temps have really been lowered... Let's see how long it will take them to rewarm. They were running a little over 1 degree warmer than normal. In the past week the Carrib has really taken on some heat content.
1526. Drakoen
90L has done a great job in lowering the SST's over a large portion of the GOM. Caribbean is heating up quite swiftly though.
1527. Drakoen
2009:



2008:
BAHA--
where do I go to rate them?
Look at 30 and 47 (lat/lon) think something could be forming there.
1530. Drakoen
You can see the center just off-shore:
Quoting Drakoen:
You can see the center just off-shore:
its already onshore
Quoting khalilsimon:
Doubt it

stormgeeks.com
there seems to be low.
I understand the NHC reasoning. Named storms seem to cause overhype by the media. There are thunderstorms that come through that cause more damage and drop more rain than this "low". All a named storm would have done is make people freak out over nothing. I think the NHC is going to be very careful about their invests this season, and save the names for truly dangerous situations. And for good reason.
1536. Drakoen
Quoting khalilsimon:
its already onshore


No its not. The mid level circulation moved on shore. The surface circulation is just off the coast.
The broad area of low pressure is still offshore.
1538. Drakoen
Center 30.2N 88.4W

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

WTIO21 PGTW 230530
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2N 88.1E TO 20.6N 88.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 230500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.5N 88.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1N
86.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 88.2E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTH
OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
222349Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 222349Z
QUIKSCAT IMAGE (AS WELL AS AN EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE) SUPPORT A 25-30
KNOT LLCC WITH STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTENSE
CONVECTION. THIS LLCC HAS BECOME STRONGER AND MORE DEFINED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
INDIA. THE LLCC IS ALSO LOCATED OVER VERY WARM SST AND HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT WITH VERY HIGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (GREATER
THAN 62 MM). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LACKING OVER THE LLCC, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE QUICKLY IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
FORECAST TO IMPROVE AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER INDIA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 240530Z.//
NNNN



Yeah this is where i've turned my attention to, seeing as to where this could end up.
Quoting Drakoen:


No its not. The mid level circulation moved on shore. The surface circulation is just off the coast.
that is true!
Right on StormW--

I want to give my thanks to each and everyone of who has served or are serving in the great military of the United States of America. My appreciation is more than you will ever know.

Take time this weekend to greet a military person and tell them how much you appreciate what they do to preserve our freedom!
you to storm!!!!,both my grandpa's were in the korean war and have sinced passed,I'll be partying for them this weeken;)....
Oh, good. Here's some rain.

The river got more more rain downstream this time, as opposed to Fay which rained here and upstream. Then, the river rose about 1' for every 3" of rain. We flood at about 8'. Besides all the other flooding in the area, the St. Johns River downstream is nearing flood stage.
Quoting Drakoen:


No its not. The mid level circulation moved on shore. The surface circulation is just off the coast.
Quoting tennisgirl08:
The broad area of low pressure is still offshore.
Well the worst is onshore
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
BAHA--
where do I go to rate them?
Click on my name, then look on the right hand side at the photos.

TIA
I don't think names should be used only in dangerous situations... I think they should be used whenever a storm qualifies to be named. A tropical storm can be VERY dangerous. For example Allison and Faye... Both of these storms caused millions in damage, Even though neither were much better than a poorly organized mass of thunderstorms...
1549. Patrap
Barbecue Check List..

Ribs,Chicken,Dogs,Burgers...Check

Keg,soda,Lifewater,..check

Tunes,Speakers..check

One TD sliding North..

Priceless
Ok i need help. I've went to the wiki pages trying to learn to post links but i am still firing blanks:) Could someone wu-mail me directions? t.i.a.
Quoting StormW:


Looks like just an extratropical low. The atmosphere is fairly stable around it (Sc deck surrounding it, dry air to the west).
This had a fine mid-level spin to it yesterday. It's headed east, though, so unless it gets cut off [seems unlikely] it's mainly just pretty.
1552. Patrap
Look on the right side of this page under "Recommended Links".

How to start your own blog, and add blog images and links
To post links, just click on the [links] button just above the comment box. In the box that opens, paste the URL of the website u want to link.
I think that will be classified as a TD in Season Review.
1555. Drakoen
1549. LOL Patrap Ditto. The boat is having to stay under cover this weekend :(
Storms are firing off of the Florida east coast. Big Storms and I am amazed when looking at the visible satellite imagery watching the storms develop. THey look like marshmellows blowing up.
Well, I gotta go get ready for work. If I get a break, I'll check in from there later today. Toodaloo, all.
Whohoo it's raining cats and dogs over here in Boca Raton as I just woke up with thunder.Looks like the whole southeast coast of FL is getting it this morning.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
I don't think names should be used only in dangerous situations... I think they should be used whenever a storm qualifies to be named. A tropical storm can be VERY dangerous. For example Allison and Faye... Both of these storms caused millions in damage, Even though neither were much better than a poorly organized mass of thunderstorms...



Good point! Europe names fronts and whatnot, maybe we could go to something like that with those and lows that dont qualify for tropical naming. Flash flooding kills and maybe calling heavy rainmakers by a name would make some think twice before driving in flooded roadways and such.
Good Morning; 90L looked at it's best this AM as it made landfall...
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Whohoo it's raining cats and dogs over here in Boca Raton as I just woke up with thunder.Looks like the whole southeast coast of FL is getting it this morning.


7 inches of rain at my house (just south of West Palm Beach).
1527 the Western carrbiean is a bit warmer.
I just completed a Tropical Update if anyone would like to view.......



TampaSpins Link
Morning all

Well I see they held off on declaring 90l a TD. It made a good run for it last night, my guess is it was just too close to landfall for them to label it a TD. Center passed pretty close to this buoy about an hour or so ago from what it looks like. Bottomed out at 1004.2mb
1567. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:


If it does, I think it would be a subtropical one. I don't think it ever went totally warm core?



StormW, it would have been very hard to be warm Core in those cold SST's IMO!
1569. Drakoen
Quoting StormJunkie:
Morning all

Well I see they held off on declaring 90l a TD. It made a good run for it last night, my guess is it was just too close to landfall for them to label it a TD. Center passed pretty close to this buoy about an hour or so ago from what it looks like. Bottomed out at 1004.2mb


Yep. Looks like that was the lowest pressure it got to.
well i guess its back to blob hunting and model watchin for now 8 days to go
1571. beell
Quoting Patrap:
Why ,,er..tyvm Capt.


We do have radar..LOL


LOL, Pat,
Yeah, we do. Another way to pin down the surface low anyway!
1557. TheDawnAwakening
...Big Storms... They look like marshmellows blowing up.


Those marshmallows can be dangerous.
Quoting StormW:


If it does, I think it would be a subtropical one. I don't think it ever went totally warm core?


Morning SW

Not so sure it is not warm core. Maybe not much of a difference, but this buoy warmed when the center passed by and the winds shifted. 2 degree jump in a hour period right as the winds shifted. Granted not a very warm core...
Enjoy what you can of the Holiday folks; a little rainy up along the Gulf but still nice to have an extra day off for some TV and fun/movies with the Family...Check Back With Yall Next Week.
1575. Drakoen
The circle south of the Mississippi sound is where the center is:
This is also a dangerous marshmellow.

Quoting HIEXPRESS:
1557. TheDawnAwakening
...Big Storms... They look like marshmellows blowing up.


Those marshmallows can be dangerous.


Bet he packs one of those...
Quoting Patrap:
Barbecue Check List..

Ribs,Chicken,Dogs,Burgers...Check

Keg,soda,Lifewater,..check

Tunes,Speakers..check

One TD sliding North..

Priceless


....paper plates and napkins. I posted a Memorial Day message but it must have been lost in limbo. Anyway, happy Memorial Day and please remeber our troops.........from a vet.
Too funny V95...Guess lots of people think of Stay Puft when someone says "dangerous" and "marshmellow" in the same sentance.
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
1557. TheDawnAwakening
...Big Storms... They look like marshmellows blowing up.


Those marshmallows can be dangerous.


HAHA, that is funny. Yeah absolutely they can be dangerous although beautiful.
1581. Patrap
Well,for 3 consecutive May's,we've had GOM and Caribbean Systems form in May.

Another sane reason to Move the Season date to May 15th for the Atlantic.

"Snickers as he swizzles his Stir Stick"..LOL
This was definitely a TD at landfall...
Mobile 29.72", wind gust to 32 mph over land.

NHC just didn't want to upgrade it.

1583. Patrap
Quoting StormSurgeon:


....paper plates and napkins. I posted a Memorial Day message but it must have been lost in limbo. Anyway, happy Memorial Day and please remeber our troops.........from a vet.



A Place to Place your Memorial Day Thoughts,remembrances and Photos.
Quoting Patrap:
Well,for 3 consecutive May's,we've had GOM and Caribbean Systems form in May.

Another sane reason to Move the Season date to May 15th for the Atlantic.

"Snickers as he swizzles his Stir Stick"..LOL


You didn't tell me KEH left the stir stick with ya...lol!
1585. Patrap
LOL.. I have a Stir stick the Likes that God has never seen,bucko.

Too much info...
Quoting Patrap:
LOL.. I have a Stir stick the Likes that God has never seen,bucko.



HAHA! sounds like your feeling good today PAT!
Link

Humbling story might give you another view of the rainfall.
1589. Patrap
Always feels good to get a Developing Impactor onshore and see that it stays there.

90L shows us that it can get woolly fast in the GOM,no matter the Date.
well...not much rain to talk about, skies are gray and a little drizzle, 74 degrees w/ 86% humidity

IT'S ALIVE!

OMG...it's working! [phew!]

XtremeHurricanes.com, a public service site operated by us members of WeatherUnderground.com has a functionality!

Click on the [Current Hurricane Hunt] link!

The live shot you will be viewing is streaming from abacast.com Use Mozilla...I think an annoying bug is happening with IE8. You will have to install the plug-in. It's fast and painless.

The beauty of using abacast.com is that the stream is near flawless. I'm looking at the stats now inside my home while accessing the Dell Mini-9 that's in the black box remote weather station. Very few frame drop outs.

What that means is that if my team can achieve a good broadband signal during a TC, you folks here at wunderground will have a fantastic ring-side seat to a U.S. landfall...all free-of-charge.

Nice, huh? :)

Quoting sporteguy03:
Link

Humbling story might give you another view of the rainfall.


excellent story.. feel sorry for all those people who lost everything to the water
Very Heavy Rain 2+ Inches an Hour Over Southern Palm Beach County in South Florida... Tree's Swaying ..... Neigboorhood lake was almosty empty last saturday now Full and Its still going up ....
Good job OZ!!!
Keep up the good work
Irawaddy Delta could be in trouble.






India Met Dep:
Link
1597. Patrap
Heres a Good example of a Hurricane that wasnt declared such until the Post season analysis.

Cindy was the FIRST Hurricane to Strike NOLA in 2005,but was forgotten due to the August event.

This system went on to create havoc inland,and spawned Tornadoes that ripped the Roof off the Atlanta Motor Speedway too.
Cindy did 320 Million in Damages also.


Local Landfall Radar loop,Cindy
Well it HAD stopped raining over night but its falling fast and furious again...23 inches of rain and counting here in Daytona Beach :(
The unnamed Tropical Storm still remains offshore, should be making landfall really soon.
Just lost power for a few minutes and its going bad down here with thunder and gusty winds in Boca Raton as you look at the radar just above Ft.Lauderdale.Link
And I submitted two videos to the Weather Channel from here and the 2nd one is where it got bad.Lets see if they put it.
1602. Patrap
Oz..if NOLA is threatened..you can setup with me here,as Im on the Rivers ridge ,and not far from everything.24 ft above sea Level

Sweet set-up.
I see your birdies oz!!!!,check your msn mail,I just sent you some mail!!!!
So much for a dry memorial day weekend, supposed to rain most of the weekend. And into the Memorial day, so much for the bbq and such
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Just lost power for a few minutes and its going bad down here with thunder and gusty winds in Boca Raton as you look at the radar just above Ft.Lauderdale.Link
And I submitted two videos to the Weather Channel from here and the 2nd one is where it got bad.Lets see if they put it.


Im in Boca Too ..
WOW - terential downpours - thunder & lightning here in Boca - gotta love Florida weather !!!!!!!
Unamed Tropical Storm? NO Drought Buster? YES
OMG Such bad weather here in Fort Lauderdale!

I guess summer is starting. I think lightning hit my tree. I really hope that's not the case.
will gave too wait and see what the nhc dos with it in post season when HH 2009 is done with
Quoting Patrap:
Oz..if NOLA is threatened..you can setup with me here,as Im on the Rivers ridge ,and not far from everything.24 ft above sea Level

Sweet set-up.


Thanks Patrap!

All that hard work last night has really paid off! I'm feelin' very gratified.

It's always been my desire that us members of wunderground have our own website. Very soon now, we will have one with complete functionality.

This site will be a tribute to all of you, including you...Patrap...for all the hard work and important weather related efforts many of us do.

Hey guys here is thie video I submitted and it is still like this in Boca.Link
It seems that the Power grids here in South Florida are not as tough as FPL has said they are: "hurricane ready." Heck a small thunderstorm takes out half of northern broward's power grid easily. What does this tell all of us south floridians about hurricane season?
Drak or Pat:

Can you tell me what the deal is with all the ULL's that have been making Florida their home as of late?
1614. Patrap
Well,its a good thing to share with everyone here,..and Im in a unique Position here as It's a 67 minute Drive to Biloxi,or a 4.5 Hour Drive to Houston.

Centrally located if ya will.
1615. Patrap
Fla has been on the Wet side of this thing for a week almost.
Compared to us here,who have been dry and cool on the west side.
Relative position to the Center determines ones fate. Fla drew the wet card this time,drought relief for some,Insurance claims for flooding for others.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
It seems that the Power grids here in South Florida are not as tough as FPL has said they are: "hurricane ready." Heck a small thunderstorm takes out half of northern broward's power grid easily. What does this tell all of us south floridians about hurricane season?


tell me about it - our traffic lights still go out sometimes after a rain storm here in Boca - thanks to Wilma, things have not been the same !!!
all that severe wx should be on my coast by late afternoon,their's a nice plume of moisture between the yucatan and north cuba that will help to energize our seabreezes in south and central FL,IMO....
Storm along the coast

Quoting stillwaiting:
I see your birdies oz!!!!,check your msn mail,I just sent you some mail!!!!


I didn't receive it. Maybe the server is slow.

PS: These finches, woodpeckers, and other birdies are very nice. The barking dogs are mine. White miniature schnauzers...terrier terrors they are! :)
1620. Drakoen
Exposed center:
Yes, from the bouy reports, the satellite and radar indicates to me this is a minimal 40 mph. Tropical Storm making landfall!
OR it could be a 35 mph Tropical Depression...

NOT Extratropical
I know right!Its funny like it happens to me too.
Quoting stillwaiting:
I see your birdies oz!!!!,check your msn mail,I just sent you some mail!!!!


Okay...got it. Good job, man!
Drak,

Exposed or not, its still impressive
Location is everything - for the most part we have dodged the rain in South Dade. Its like the clouds parted and went up each side of the state. I don't want 24" of rain, thank you - a few inches everyday is just fine with me.

Our electric also went out on Sunday night, the days that the rain was heavy. I've watched them hardening the lines in our area, sort of surprised it still goes down.
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Hey guys here is thie video I submitted and it is still like this in Boca.Link


That's what it's like here, except there seems to be MUCH more lightning where I am.
1628. Drakoen
Quoting reedzone:
Yes, from the bouy reports, the satellite and radar indicates to me this is a minimal 40 mph. Tropical Storm making landfall!
OR it could be a 35 mph Tropical Depression...

NOT Extratropical


It is nothing more than Invest 90L.
The History of the Low is Very Intresting ... its been pounding Florida For a Whole Week Now... THEY WEATHER IN SOUTH FLORIDA WILL IMPROVE ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH WILL TAKE OVER AND OUR CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DECREASE
zoo, the first storm will tell us how good our grids really are
sammy, 80% of rain on Monday
Drak
Quoting Drakoen:


It is nothing more than Invest 90L.
I agree Hes Over exaggreateing .... in my perspective its jest strong Extra-Topical Low Pressure that has alot of mostiure and Power
I wonder if 90L will pull an Arthur or a Nana (Nana only had one or two advisories before it dissipated).
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
sammy, 80% of rain on Monday


The Local Forcast In My area ... i am just a little north of you ... says that it will decrease .... I dont know but right now ply its pouring hard ....what about you?
Drak,

Anyone got the troll-i-cide?
No.. it will be a Post Analysis Storm, come on now guys, look at this system!! that's not your ordinary invest. it's a Tropical Depression at best, the NHC just didn't name it because 1. too close to land 2. economy, didn't want to waste money on a TD 3.keeping the tradition of naming a storm after June 1st after 2 years of early systems.
Quoting reedzone:
Yes, from the bouy reports, the satellite and radar indicates to me this is a minimal 40 mph. Tropical Storm making landfall!
OR it could be a 35 mph Tropical Depression...

NOT Extratropical


Its history...I do agree with your statements here and a possible upgrade to a TD after the season is over at best track.
1638. Drakoen
Center about to make landfall.
I literally have fish on my porch, if that tells ya anything. Every pond here has overflowed and we have ponding in the streets. Some low lying areas in broward have flooded streets, and alot of downed trees.

Hail in Downtown Ft. Lauderdale yesterday and high winds.
Quoting reedzone:
No.. it will be a Post Analysis Storm, come on now guys, look at this system!! that's not your ordinary invest. it's a Tropical Depression at best, the NHC just didn't name it because 1. too close to land 2. economy, didn't want to waste money on a TD 3.keeping the tradition of naming a storm after June 1st.


Calm Down there will be much more intresting things later on in the hurricane season ... no reason to Argue over it becomeing a td or not .... and if it was a td its not now..
Sammy and plywood what part of Palm Beach county do you live in or what part of Boca?I live in West Boca....right in the middle of this storm that is not moving away!Stationary right now
For some reason at this current time (9:30 pm) i am getting a lot of wind, but no rain and no thunder or lightning. Is this part of the storm or is this a separate system. If you want i can update on the condition as we go.
Quoting hurricane23:


Its history...I do agree with your statements here and a possible upgrade to a TD or maybe a weak TS is possible after the season is over at best track.


thanks, this is too impressive to pass through on Post Analysis. Probably what StormW said earlier "Subtropical Storm 1"
Storm, Northern Broward County here
Uggh we should be in a flash flood warning any minute now cause the canal in my back yard has just about a foot and half then it would flood over.
Good morning all! I noticed that we had another tropical dud, it figures. Anyways, what's coming down the pipe line next?
Well i am looking outside my window right now and i see Rain Embedded Gusts ..... And there's constant thunder its been raining for a while now .... and my Neighboorhood Lake is about to overflow......

Plywood if we get a hurricane later on in the season there will be alot of flooding beacuse this one little storm has dumped so much rain that it went from

Drought -> Normal/Full

and if we get another storm later on:

Normal/Full -> Flooding
The audio dropped out of the live feed.

I did a test of the system using the GoToMyPC.com

I discovered that abacast dropped the audio...so I restarted the encoder [mind you, it's running on a Dell Mini-9 outside in a box] from here in the comfort of my command center...and wah La! Audio is back on.

PensacolaDoug is gonna have to stay on top of it when this thing is deployed and he's in charge of running it for you folks...and I have full faith and trust that he will! :)
I feel like going out to the beach and burying my head in the sand like an ostrich
Central Boca ... Just West Of I-95 ... Big Crack Of Lighting Just now .... Still Pouring ...
Large HI-RES of 90L moving onshore.
<--- now has "lake front" property (I'm in West Boca too) !!!!!!!
I just heard that 2!Getting closer!Ah lol
Shuttle landing cancelled

Article from: Reuters
From correspondents in Cape Canaveral

May 23, 2009

BAD weather forced the cancellation of the landing of the space shuttle Atlantis today, and NASA said it would try to bring it back to Earth tomorrow.

"The weather at the Kennedy Space Center (in Florida) has not cooperated ... we are waiving for the day," a NASA official said.

Clouds and rain showers over Florida caused NASA flight directors yesterday to keep the shuttle and its seven-member crew in orbit an extra day after its Hubble Space telescope repair mission.

Too much rain or too many clouds violates the space agency's criteria for a safe landing.

NASA has four scheduled opportunities on Sunday for Atlantis to land either at Kennedy Space Center in Florida or at the alternative touchdown site at the Edwards Air Force Base in California.

Atlantis has enough supplies to stay in orbit until Monday after its 12-day mission that repaired and upgraded the Hubble Space Telescope.

Due to the unstable weather over Florida, NASA is staffing its backup landing site at Edwards Air Force Base in California's Mojave Desert.

Landing in California costs NASA more than $1 million and it takes a week or two to prepare and transport the shuttle on top of a jet carrier aircraft back to Florida for its next launch.
Crow tastes bad...

I think we beat our deficit here today with about 5 inches of rain this morning.
Well whatever 90l is. It is going to be a big rainmaker if it keeps the moisture with it and moves as slow as the models suggest.

H23, the shear sure backed off, can see upper anticyclone forming. Given a few more hours...
1659. hahaguy
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
I think we beat our deficit here today with about 5 inches of rain this morning.


Send some up here to PSL.
Yep we got an URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY as of now in BoCA rATON
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Good morning all! I noticed that we had another tropical dud, it figures. Anyways, what's coming down the pipe line next?


don't tell all the people who had their homes flooded due to this storm a dud... i think they would dislike you for that
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
It seems that the Power grids here in South Florida are not as tough as FPL has said they are: "hurricane ready." Heck a small thunderstorm takes out half of northern broward's power grid easily. What does this tell all of us south floridians about hurricane season?

Not much.
The power was out for about 4 minutes where I am in North Broward.
Sorta' been like that for the last 25 summers I've been down here. I'd estimate that my area will lose power like this 50-100 times this summer, all non-tropical related.
SC2007:the MLC became the dominant feature and this should be classified a STS when the seasons over...**takes crow wing and throws it at the wall**....next time if your going to be the one to cook my crow don't burn it!!!;),lol
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
H23, the shear sure backed off, can see upper anticyclone forming. Given a few more hours...


FSU phase seems to suggests that it might have become tropical right before moving onshore.We'll see what the NHC does
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


don't tell all the people who had their homes flooded due to this storm a dud... i think they would dislike you for that


I meant it from the overall large scale of things. Good morning, Mr. StormW.
55 million dollars is a pretty large scale number ;-)
A flight sure would have settled it, but would the $$$ have been worth it? And, of course, there is always some risk associated with each flight.
I guess it was a random storm because by 10pm it disappeared
Does anyone have a link to the GFS and NAM model severe weather graphics?
1671. Drakoen
According to the cross sections from AMSU, I believe it is fully warm core:
1672. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:


Roger that...but I don't think it warmed above mid level...if that.


Yes it did:
1673. JRRP
Link
strong Niño ?
1674. Drakoen
Looks like one band is heading my way.
1676. Drakoen
CFS now predicts a strong El Nino to develop:
1677. Drakoen
1678. JRRP
this season will be like 2006
i think....
If a Strong Nino develops by September, we wont see the effects of it till December. It tends to lag as you guys recal with the 2004 season. Look how late they got off, dang late July.
Quoting Drakoen:


YES, no cane season, wooooooooooooo. Nice outlook there, Drak.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If a Strong Nino develops by September, we wont see the effects of it till December. It tends to lag as you guys recal with the 2004 season. Look how late they got off, dang late July.


Late season starts allow the water to really warm.
Quoting JRRP:
this season will be like 2006
i think....


Don't be so sure.. 2006 already had a nino by this point. Im leaning in terms of numbers, 2004.
Quoting JRRP:
this season will be like 2006
i think....



nop
Any severe weather graphics from the NAM and GFS?
True that...:(
The first storm in 2004 formed on July 31st. After that, all hell broke loose.
1687. JRRP
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Don't be so sure.. 2006 already had a nino by this point. Im leaning in terms of numbers, 2004.

ok thanks
1688. Levi32
Good morning all.

Well what do ya know, NHC didn't name it. Maybe they will in the next update. Looked pretty warm-core to me, especially with those AMSU images Drak posted. That was awesome watching it ramp up yesterday, too bad most of it was during the middle of the night for me.
The rain has finally lightened up. Link

I got 8 inches of rain in 6 hours, plus 2 new lakes in my front yard and back yard.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TWO
DEPRESSION BOB02-2009
17:30 PM IST May 23 2009
======================================

Subject: Depression over west central Bay of Bengal and cyclone alert for West Bengal coast.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Depression BOB02-2009 over west central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered 16.5N 88.0E, or about 470 km south-southeast of Paradip, 600 km south of Sagar Island and 650 km south-southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh.

Satellite imagery indicates persistant organized convection. The Dvorak Intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection observed over area between 11.0N and 18.5N and west of 90.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -70C around the system.

3 Minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 994 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system's center.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind close over the region is around 10-20 knots. The system lies close to the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 17.0N in association with the anticyclonic circulation over east central Bay located to the east-northeast of the system center. There is a feeble under tropospheric trough in westerlies roughly runny along 80.0E to the north of 200N. Sea surface temperature are also favorable for intensification as it is 0.50 to 1.00C above normal. Majority of NWP models also suggest intensification of the system and landfall over West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a near northerly direction and cross West Bengal/Bangladesh coast near 89.0E (about 100 kms east of Sagar Island) between 1200 PM UTC and 1500 PM UTC, May 25th.

For some reason, people are having an urge to speed down my street right in the middle of "New Lake". Almost had a few accidents.

I can't even imagine what it looks like in Daytona Beach.
1692. Levi32
98B in the Bay of Bengal could turn into a problem for Bangladesh. It's over 30C waters and getting more aligned with an upper high aloft. The monsoon low over India should direct this thing almost due north over the next 3 days. It's having a few problems organizing but once it consolidates there will be few things hindering intensification.







interesting invest near Hong Kong, China
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
The rain has finally lightened up. Link

I got 8 inches of rain in 6 hours, plus 2 new lakes in my front yard and back yard.


Lol Now you can charge people to water ski in your back yard...
No unfortunatley it doesn't mean no 'cane season WS but it does help reduce the long range storms... but it gives way for those fast formers in the GOM that give little time to prepare for
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Lol Now you can charge people to water ski in your back yard...


Good idea. LOL

You should see Daytona Speedway- Link
Daytona Speedway -
We used to do "Turtle Patrols" to make sure no turtles were headed out of Lake Lloyd onto the track. Now they will need to do "Bass Patrols" in the "Gulf of Lloyd".
Just had an interesting glitch with the webcam. I can't be sure, but I think some moister got inside a connector.

It's back up and running now!

Pretty cool seeing the rain stream live like that. Awesome!
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Good idea. LOL

You should see Daytona Speedway- Link

Dont you agree if we get a hurricane later on in the season we will have widespread flooding
1700. Drakoen
Look at what the ECWMF does with 98b:Link
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Well what do ya know, NHC didn't name it. Maybe they will in the next update. Looked pretty warm-core to me, especially with those AMSU images Drak posted. That was awesome watching it ramp up yesterday, too bad most of it was during the middle of the night for me.


Morning LEVI!

Im kinda surprised they didn't at least go to a TD with it... but that's is why I don't work fot the NHC...
1702. Drakoen
All the computer models show significant intensification with 98B.
Looks like the east coast of Florida is going to get it again.

Quoting sammywammybamy:

Dont you agree if we get a hurricane later on in the season we will have widespread flooding


I have gotten flooding from every hurricane except for Wilma. This season will be no different for me if South Florida gets hit.
we had a tornado here in pinellas county yesterday
if leftovers was in charge i'd give b a break.
Quoting nocaneindy:
Looks like the east coast of Florida is going to get it again.




Please re move that photo you are copy righting its from TWC and we cant post photos from TWC
Hey what's up everyone, has anyone noticed that broad low in the atlantic...
Quoting Tazmanian:



Please re move that photo you are copy righting its from TWC and we cant post photos from TWC
that is true, watch out with that bloggers
Quoting Tazmanian:



Please re move that photo you are copy righting its from TWC and we cant post photos from TWC


...yup, dude...that's a good way to get a spanking...


imagery from Thailand Meteorological Department

shows BOB02 near India and 99W near Hong Kong, China
Today's high of 78 degrees in West Palm Beach happened at 1 am. Link
Quoting Tazmanian:



Please re move that photo you are copy righting its from TWC and we cant post photos from TWC


Hey thanks taz! Was not aware of that. Would hate to get banned or something like that.
Wow, GFS predicts 70 mm (2.8 in) of rain from 90L at my location in S. Ontario, including 1.9 in (48 mm) in just 12 hours!
Quoting Drakoen:
All the computer models show significant intensification with 98B.

I don't like the sound of that, hopefully it doesn't strengthen as much as it says or else many people could die. BTW where are u getting those models?
New blog!
looks like a major event coming up in the bay of bengal. my friend traveled alot in india he said the poverty is so bad its unbelievable no way our workers can compete against them. all the villiages have the thinkers they hang out thinking all day. kind of like the west. happy weather
I've been able to stablize my live webcam and remote weather station at XtremeHurricanes.com

The problem was with the GoToMyPC interface.

Everytime I disconnected, the encoder stopped running and the microphone cut out.

To solve the problem, I've set the inactivity disconnect for over 10 hours.

That should do it! :)