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Gulf of Mexico oil spill hits Louisiana coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:27 PM GMT on April 30, 2010

The oil slick from the ruptured well due to the April 20 explosion and sinking of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon has reached the Louisiana coast near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Strong southeasterly winds blowing at 20 - 25 knots will continue through Sunday, which will push a large amount of oil onto most of the eastern Louisiana coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River northwards to the Mississippi border. It is likely that the Mississippi coast will see the arrival of oil by Saturday night or Sunday. On Monday, the winds shift to southwesterly, but weaken. The wind shift will allow oil to move eastwards towards Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but at just 1 mph or so. The winds remain southwesterly through Tuesday, which should allow the oil to reach Alabama by Monday and possibly the extreme western Florida Panhandle by Tuesday. On Tuesday night, a cold front is expected to move over the Gulf of Mexico, bringing offshore northwesterly winds. These offshore winds will last for two days and blow the oil slick 5 - 10 miles offshore. High pressure is expected to build in late next week, bringing relatively light offshore winds that should cause little transport of the oil spill for the final portion of next week.


Figure 1. The oil spill on April 29, 2010, as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra spacecraft. A tendril of oil is beginning to touch the Mississippi River "bird's foot" in Louisiana. Sun glint on the water at this hour happened to be just at the right angle to light up the spill dramatically. Image credit: University of Wisconsin.

Oil continues to gush from the well head at 5,000 feet depth at a rate five times what was previously estimated--210,000 gallons per day. This is equivalent to about 2% of the total spilled oil from America's worst oil spill, the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster in Alaska, entering the Gulf of Mexico each day. If 210,000 gallons per day has been leaking since the disaster began on April 20, over 2 million gallons of oil has already been spewed into the Gulf, about 20% of the 11,000,000 gallons spilled in the Exxon Valdez disaster.


Figure 2. Previous location and forecast location for today of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Image credit: NOAA Office of Response and Restoration.

Oil a long-range threat to southwest and southeast Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas
The surface ocean currents that transport the oil are driven by the wind and by the large scale ocean current structure of the Gulf of Mexico. The latest surface ocean current forecast (Figure 3) from NOAA's RTOFS model shows a complicated current structure along the Gulf Coast over the next seven days. By Tuesday night, when the winds shift to northwesterly (offshore), the forecast calls for surface currents of about 1 m/s (roughly 2 mph) to transport oil to the southeast from the site of the blowout. There is a danger that the oil thus transported could make it all the way south to the Loop Current, since offshore winds are now expected to last Tuesday through Friday of next week. The warm Loop Current enters the Gulf from the south and loops around to the southeast to exit through the Florida Keys, where it becomes the Gulf Stream. Oil caught in the Loop Current would move relatively rapidly at 2 - 4 mph to the southeast and then eastwards through the Keys, potentially fouling beaches in the Keys, northwest Cuba, the southwest and southeast coasts of Florida, and the western Bahamas. I don't think the spill will be able to make it into the Loop Current next week, since it has to travel about 120 miles south-southeast from the blowout location to reach the Loop Current. The duration and strength of next week's offshore winds are probably capable of pushing the oil slick only half way to the Loop Current. However, that may be close enough so that the oil will reach the Loop Current the following week, unless strong onshore winds develop again. The long range wind forecast is too uncertain to put odds on the possibilities at this point. If the oil keeps spewing from the ocean floor for many months, though, eventually a wind pattern will set up that will take the oil into the Loop Current. This would most likely happen if a persistent trough of low pressure settles over the East Coast in May, or if a tropical storm makes landfall along the Florida Panhandle this summer. Any oil that does make it into the Loop Current will suffer significant dispersion before it makes landfall in Cuba, Florida, or the Bahamas, and far less oil will foul these shores compared to what the Louisiana coast is experiencing this weekend.


Figure 3. Surface ocean current forecast for 8pm EDT Tuesday, May 4 from the NOAA's RTOFS model run made at 8 pm EDT on Wednesday, April 28, 2010. Note that on Tuesday, northwest winds are expected to create surface currents of about 1 m/s (roughly 2 mph) from the site of the spill towards the southeast. It is possible that these currents will be strong enough to transport oil far enough south that it will enter the Loop Current, which would then transport the oil into northwest Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South Florida.

Next post
I'll probably do an update this weekend. Keep an eye on the severe weather threat in the Plains today and over the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Saturday. Our severe weather expert, Dr. Rob Carver, shows a few nice radar images of yesterday's strongest storms, which generated five tornadoes.

Jeff Masters
Boom are set-out
Boom are set-out
Alabama is ready for the Crude that will be coming ashore sometime this weekend.... We have companies from Maine to Virginia here on the Gulf Coast putting out those Booms.....

Air and Water Pollution

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments


19:45 UTC
Quoting CaribBoy:
Caribbean is pretty dry with plenty of sunshine helping SSTs to rise


You are right,look at those waters in the Caribbean Sea. Where are you? I am in Puerto Rico.


Link
1003. help4u
Great post Pottery!!
1004. pottery
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


You are right,look at those waters in the Caribbean Sea. Where are you? I am in Puerto Rico.

Trinidad got to 95F at the airport, and 96.4 at my location today.
Some showers last week, one of them heavy, but it is HOT.
Quoting 2010hurricane:
2010 Hurricane Prediction

16 NS
10 H
5 MH
I think your going to need to bump up those numbers a bit.
After a dry feb and march, I remember the pattern was often very wet in 2005 from mid april and continuing trough the entire hurricane season. In the northeastern carib, significant rain events occured each month.

Looking at the climate models such as the CFS and Euro, 2010 is supposed to do the same with well-above normal rainfalls through the region.

So far, 2010 is fairly close to 2005 weather-wise here in the northeast caribbean. However we need some rain-makers in May and beyond to confirm that and the models outputs... but at this moment it's dry...
1007. pottery
SST in the East Pac., are 88F ???
Gonna hit 90 soon ? WOW!
84F off Trinidad.
16/7/4 here as usual.

Doesn't think this season will be on pair with 2005, but with 2008, 2007, 2004, and 2003. However the conditions and the TCHP in the Atlantic currently are identical if not higher than this time in 2005, and higher than they were September 2009.
1009. pottery
Thanks, help4u!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


You are right,look at those waters in the Caribbean Sea. Where are you? I am in Puerto Rico.


Link


I'm in st maarten, east of you :)
OUS64 KWNS 012015
WOU5

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

TORNADO WATCH 125 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ARC001-011-013-019-025-027-031-035-037-039-041-043-045-051-053-
057-059-061-063-067-069-073-077-079-081-085-091-093-095-099-103-
107-109-111-117-119-123-125-133-139-145-147-020300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0125.100501T2020Z-100502T0300Z/

AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA
CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS
DALLAS DESHA DREW
FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
INDEPENDENCE JACKSON JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE LEE LINCOLN
LITTLE RIVER LONOKE MILLER
MISSISSIPPI MONROE NEVADA
OUACHITA PHILLIPS PIKE
POINSETT PRAIRIE PULASKI
SALINE SEVIER ST. FRANCIS
UNION WHITE WOODRUFF


LAC015-017-027-031-119-020300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0125.100501T2020Z-100502T0300Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

BOSSIER CADDO CLAIBORNE
DE SOTO WEBSTER


TXC037-067-073-183-203-315-343-347-365-401-419-423-459-020300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0125.100501T2020Z-100502T0300Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOWIE CASS CHEROKEE
GREGG HARRISON MARION
MORRIS NACOGDOCHES PANOLA
RUSK SHELBY SMITH
UPSHUR


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...MEG...
while planting strawberries, i found a baby rattle snake. i told my husband to please get him and that he was suppose to cut off his head. he couldn't do it, instead took the snake up the mountain and let it go.

i guess we all deserve to be here and have a certain purpose.

looks like the tornadoes are starting up again. no good.
Quoting pottery:
Unfortunately, drilling for Oil has always been fraught with danger and unexpected tragedy of all kinds. (I lost an Uncle to a blow-out and fire here in the 1950's)
It is simply not possible to avoid accidents and even with the best current equipment, we will continue to have oil leaks wherever oil is drilled, transported, stored, refined and used.
Blowouts and fires are part of an Oilman's nightmare. All people who work on rigs go through exacting, on-going safety drills and are aware of the chances they take. Petroleum is highly flammable, in case you forgot that!
Oil leaks on land do happen, but are much easier to deal with, and dont get as much press, than leaks that come from 5,000" deep in the sea.
This leak is a tragety so far. But it could very well become much worse than that.
I guess everyone in the Industry who has anything to do with this well, is praying for it to "sand-up" and stop flowing.
That would be the best-case scenario. But it sure as hell looks to be a grim situation.
My heart is heavy for the many people affected by this. And for the swamps, beaches, rivers and environments in the way. The biology of the affected areas may take a long time to recover.
I wish it never happened, but these are the chances we take, in pursuit of this life we lead.
Crap happens along the way.....


Well said thank you

Taco :o)
Quoting pottery:
SST in the East Pac., are 88F ???
Gonna hit 90 soon ? WOW!
84F off Trinidad.


It's hot here too! Well I'm off to the beach ... in those 28°C+ SSTs lol
Quoting winter123:


Atlantic better moisten up fast. But note the amazing outflow over the EPAC system. Think it's going to hit land soon but if it survives the crossing, maybe.



Well a month can make a big difference in dryness. But could be that dry air could be more a factor in 2010 than 2005.

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
BATESVILLE ARKANSAS TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 124...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO
CENTRAL AR. RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...COUPLED
WITH A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE A
RISK OF STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.


...HART
what in the heck is causing the streamers on radar over swfl?????,no one else is curious about it,very odd????
A new PDS Tornado Watch has been issued!!!!
oh boy,a pds watch,here we go again:{
Quoting ElConando:


Well a month can make a big difference in dryness. But could be that dry air could be more a factor in 2010 than 2005.


Computer models predict near or above average rainfalls in the basin... so dry air isn't supposed to be a problem here..
Quoting CybrTeddy:
16/7/4 here as usual.

Doesn't think this season will be on pair with 2005, but with 2008, 2007, 2004, and 2003. However the conditions and the TCHP in the Atlantic currently are identical if not higher than this time in 2005, and higher than they were September 2009.

Track Wise: Very Similar to 2004

Named Storms: Similar to 1995

SST's: Warmer Than 2005

This year has all the components of being a very very active season, let's see how it unfolds.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
16/7/4 here as usual.

Doesn't think this season will be on pair with 2005, but with 2008, 2007, 2004, and 2003. However the conditions and the TCHP in the Atlantic currently are identical if not higher than this time in 2005, and higher than they were September 2009.

Not 2003. 2003 was an East Coast/Fish year due to the moderate El Nino. 2004 was a weak El Nino and 2008 was a weak La Nina, whereas 2007 was a moderate La Nina that became "strong" that winter.

2004 and 2005 tracks with 1995 statistics, that's my prediction
Quoting Bordonaro:

SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
BATESVILLE ARKANSAS TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 124...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO
CENTRAL AR. RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS...COUPLED
WITH A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE A
RISK OF STRONG AND POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.


...HART
Another long night for arkansas man these guys cant get a break!
Don't know if anyone saw this:

Inland rig overturns
Unfortunately I'm almost certain there will be a scenario very similar to this...
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Don't know if anyone saw this:

Inland rig overturns
WOW!!
Nice new pic of the big picture including our future 1st invest of the eastpac 2010 TC season,IMO
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Unfortunately I'm almost certain there will be a scenario very similar to this...

Except the storm won't stay a 1015 MB weak TS all that time in the boiling hot waters of the MDR which were way cold in 1992...and the lack of shear...
1031. beell
Quoting stillwaiting:
what in the heck is causing the streamers on radar over swfl?????,no one else is curious about it,very odd????


Drop your question off at Skypony's blog.

Short answer is: Chaff from USAF training flights.
91 at my house on the north side of Orlando with a heat index of 97.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Another long night for arkansas man these guys cant get a break!


Tornado WW #125 is a Particularly Dangerous Situation!!!

The temps have warmed into the lower to mid 80's -over most of SW AR, dew-points are near 70-72F.

The BIG Upper Level Impulse is shooting across SW TX towards AR. Wind shear is approx 50KT, veering from the SE towards to SW, the Upper Level Jet is 100KT across the AR/TN River Valley, and 1000-2000 J/KG of CAPE, see link for explanation:
Link

ALL the ingredients are there for a REAL BAD Tornado outbreak.
1034. Patrap
www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com


PHOTO RELEASE: Unified Command releases photos of boom loading operations

Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center

Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-524
Quoting altesticstorm10:

Except the storm won't stay a 1015 MB weak TS all that time in the boiling hot waters of the MDR which were way cold in 1992...and the lack of shear...
Very true, it will probably have much more time to strengthen, and that is never good.
1036. Patrap


Gulf of Mexico - Deepwater Horizon Incident

DATE: May 01, 2010 13:44:31 CST
Update on Administration-wide response efforts in the Gulf Coast

Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center

Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240

The response to the BP Oil Spill began as an emergency search and rescue mission by the U.S. Coast Guard and other partners on April 20.

Concurrently, command center operations were stood up immediately in the Gulf Coast to begin also addressing the environmental impact of the incident.

The morning after the explosion, Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar deployed Deputy Secretary David J. Hayes down to the gulf to assist with coordination and response to the incident.

The Administration immediately began holding regular calls with BP leadership and numerous senior-level meetings have been held between the administration and BP to discuss BP's response effort and federal oversight and support.

The National Response Team (NRT), an organization of 16 federal departments and agencies responsible for coordinating emergency preparedness and response to oil and hazardous substance pollution incidents was quickly activated and a coordinated group of federal partners-including the United States Coast Guard, Departments of Homeland Security, Commerce, Interior and the Environmental Protection Agency-immediately began directing and overseeing BP's response.

The President immediately began actively monitoring the incident and consulting on the response. The President has been in contact with all the governors of the states that may be affected and ordered that the administration use every single available resource at our disposal.

The Department of Defense is fully integrated into the DHS-led team and fully supportive of all response activities. Navy assets have been involved since day #1, and the Coast Guard and Department of Defense continue to work closely together, anticipating requirements, identifying response options, and rapidly providing response support.

The Secretary of Defense has approved a request for two C-130 aircraft with Modular Aerial Spray Systems (MASS), which are currently en route to the affected area. The Coast Guard has requested assistance from the Department of Defense for these aircraft.

These aircraft dispense the same dispersant chemical being used by BP and the federal responders. Each system is capable of covering up to 250 acres per flight with three flights per aircraft per day.

Additionally, in direct support of the Coast Guard under an existing pollution clean-up and salvage operations agreement, the Navy is providing a variety of oil pollution control equipment. The Navy has sent thousands of feet of inflatable oil boom with mooring equipment, several skimming systems, related support gear, and personnel to support oil spill response efforts. Naval Air Station Pensacola is serving as a staging facility for Coast Guard contractor-provided equipment.

To prepare for the possible spreading of the oil slick across the Gulf Coast and in support of the 2nd Unified command Center in Mobile, Ala., Department of Defense is airlifting additional boom materials to Mobile later today. The booms are currently located on four tractor trailers to expedite transportation on the receiving end.

Early on, the President directed responding agencies to not only devote every resource to respond to this incident but to also determine its cause. Earlier this week, Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano and Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar laid out the next steps for the investigation.

The President has also dispatched Secretary Napolitano, Secretary Salazar, EPA Administrator Jackson, Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Change Policy Carol Browner and NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco to the Gulf Coast to ensure all is being done to respond to this oil spill.

Secretary Napolitano announced that this incident is a spill of national significance, the Department of Interior has announced that they will be sending SWAT teams to the Gulf to inspect all platforms and rigs, and the EPA is conducting air monitoring activities to gather information on the impact of the controlled burn on air quality.

As part of the designation of the BP Oil Spill as a Spill of National Significance, Secretary Napolitano has announced that U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Thad Allen will serve as the National Incident Commander for the administration's continued, coordinated response—providing additional authority and oversight in leveraging every available resource to respond to the BP oil spill and minimize the associated environmental risks.

As National Incident Commander, Admiral Allen will continue to work closely with Coast Guard Rear Admiral Mary Landry, the federal on-scene coordinator, and the Departments of Homeland Security, Defense, Interior and Commerce, the Environmental Protection Agency and other federal departments and agencies as appropriate—as well as BP, the responsible party in the spill—to ensure the efficient continued deployment and coordination of vital response assets, personnel and equipment that were activated immediately after the spill began.

To keep the public informed about the latest, validated environmental air and water sampling results, EPA has launched a dedicated website at www.epa.gov/bpspill, which will also provide information on the broader federal response.

For overall information about the response effort the public can go to www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com

In response to the BP oil spill, the Secretary of Defense is authorizing under title 32 the mobilization of the Louisiana National Guard to help in the ongoing efforts to assist local communities in the cleanup and removal of oil and to protect critical habitats from contamination. As the responsible party in this incident, the government will hold BP accountable for the costs of the deployment.

The Minerals Management Service remains in contact with all oil and gas operators in the sheen area. Two platforms have stopped production and one has been evacuated as a safety measure. Approximately 6.2 million cubic feet of natural gas is shut-in—less than one-tenth of a percent of daily gas production in the Gulf of Mexico.

As the nation’s leading scientific resource for oil spills, NOAA has been on the scene of the BP spill from the start, providing coordinated scientific weather and biological response services to federal, state and local organizations. NOAA spill specialists are advising the U.S. Coast Guard on cleanup options as well as advising all affected federal, state and local partners on sensitive marine resources at risk in this area of the Gulf of Mexico.

Rapid response teams are staged to deploy to shorelines affected by oil to evaluate and determine an appropriate clean-up effort to minimize the impact to the environment.

A volunteer program has been established and a toll-free number—(866)-448-5816—set up for people to call to learn about volunteer opportunities in all areas and what training is required.

By the Numbers to Date:

* Personnel were quickly deployed and nearly 2,000 are currently responding to protect the shoreline and wildlife—hundreds more than yesterday.
* Approximately 75 response vessels have been responding on site, including skimmers, tugs, barges, and recovery vessels to assist in containment and cleanup efforts—in addition to dozens of aircraft, remotely operated vehicles, and multiple mobile offshore drilling units.
* More than 275,000 feet of boom (barrier) have been deployed to contain the spill—an increase of nearly 60,000 feet since yesterday. An additional 316,470 feet is available.
* More than 1 million gallons of an oil-water mix have been recovered—an increase of approximately 150,000 gallons since yesterday.
* Nearly 143,000 gallons of dispersant have been deployed—an increase of more than 3,500 gallons since yesterday. An additional 68,300 gallons are available.
* Six staging areas (Biloxi, Miss., Pensacola, Fla., Venice, La., Pascagoula, Miss. and Theodore, Ala., and Port Sulphur, La.) were set up to protect sensitive shorelines.
I'm watching the "Hurricane Andrew- As it happened" on Youtube right now, very cool.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think your going to need to bump up those numbers a bit.


I would agree, with the temps the way they are and the chance of a neutral La Nina. I would agree that those numbers need to be raised. Also mix in the location of the Bermuda High and you will understand why
Quoting plywoodstatenative:


I would agree, with the temps the way they are and the chance of a neutral La Nina. I would agree that those numbers need to be raised. Also mix in the location of the Bermuda High and you will understand why
Predictions no longer suggest a neutral La Niña more like a moderate La Niña.
That does what for us Miami
1049. Patrap


Impossible to give exact estimate on amount of oil leaking says Coast Guard commandant

by Associated Press

wwltv.com

Posted on May 1, 2010 at 3:12 PM
Related:

* Rapid increase in area of spill has experts concerned

The commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard says it's impossible to give an exact estimate of how much oil is leaking from a sunken rig in the Gulf of Mexico.

Adm. Thad Allen, who also is overseeing the national effort to contain the devastating spill, made the remarks Saturday afternoon during a teleconference.

One expert has said the spill's surface area has at least tripled in size in just a day or so.

Experts also have cautioned that if the spill continues growing unchecked, sea currents could suck the sheen down past the Florida Keys and then up the Eastern Seaboard.

The sheen already has reached into precious shoreline habitat and remains unstopped. That has raised fears that the ruptured well could be pouring more oil into the gulf than the 200,000 gallons per day initially estimated.
Pat, this could seriously impact the everglades and the habitats for the Bald Eagles down in the Keys.
1051. Patrap


DATE: May 01, 2010 13:31:36 CST
COAST GUARD COMMANDANT ADMIRAL THAD ALLEN DESIGNATED NATIONAL INCIDENT COMMANDER FOR CONTINUED RESPONSE TO BP OIL SPILL


Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center

Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240





As part of the designation of the BP Oil Spill as a Spill of National Significance, Department of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano today announced that U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Thad Allen will serve as the National Incident Commander for the administration's continued, coordinated response—providing additional authority and oversight in leveraging every available resource to respond to the BP oil spill and minimize the associated environmental risks.

As National Incident Commander, Admiral Allen will continue to work closely with Coast Guard Rear Admiral Mary Landry, the federal on-scene coordinator, and the Departments of Homeland Security, Defense, Interior and Commerce, the Environmental Protection Agency and other federal departments and agencies as appropriate—as well as BP, the responsible party in the spill—to ensure the efficient continued deployment and coordination of vital response assets, personnel and equipment that were activated immediately after the spill began.

Admiral Allen has overseen Coast Guard efforts since the moment this incident began, when the agency responded quickly to the April 20 explosion in a search and rescue capacity in order to save lives. Since then, the administration has continuously anticipated and planned for a worst case scenario, and with this formal designation Admiral Allen will continue to lead and coordinate ongoing federal actions to mitigate the oil spill, for which BP is responsible and required to pay response and cleanup costs.

Admiral Allen assumed the duties of the 23rd Commandant of the Coast Guard on May 25, 2006. As such, he leads a major component of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), comprised of approximately 42,000 men and women on active duty, 7,000 civilians, 8,000 reservists and 34,000 volunteer auxiliarists. He is the only four-star Admiral of the Coast Guard, and is appointed for a four year term by the President of the United States. The Coast Guard Commandant reports directly to the President, the Secretary of Homeland Security and the Secretary of Defense.
1052. Patrap
"..Calamity knows no Borders"..

My motto..

"Only mens minds and maps do"..
A company that does not plan for a disaster of this magnitude, is there anything that can be leveled against them other than all the lawsuits we are going to see as well as the cost for the cleanup
Someone brought up the comment earlier in the week about ships and other items that could be used to contain the oil. Why did BP not send those items when this first happened, a dual search and rescue and clean up force should have been sent instead of focusing on rescue only
1055. Patrap
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
A company that does not plan for a disaster of this magnitude, is there anything that can be leveled against them other than all the lawsuits we are going to see as well as the cost for the cleanup


Maybe we could turn the BP Execs into Bankers?

They Run amuck around the Globe unregulated just Like um..

But Id rather see them on the Marsh Line with a Bio Suit,no Mosquito repellent,doing some Clean up efforts ..
lol Pat, that would destroy the financial markets. On that subject, do you think we will have a crisis develop because of this with the stock market?

This brings up the topic of alternative energy and pounds it into the heads of every american who depends on oil. If not for the drilling, we would not have the issues we have right now.
Regarding a question from another blog about mercury in petroleum. EPA report: Link


Quote from report: "While the amount of Hg that derives from burning coal can now be estimated with reasonable confidence, the amount that derives from petroleum cannot be estimated with equal confidence at present."


Another EPA report on mercury in petroleum and natural gas: Link
1058. Patrap
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
lol Pat, that would destroy the financial markets. On that subject, do you think we will have a crisis develop because of this with the stock market?

This brings up the topic of alternative energy and pounds it into the heads of every american who depends on oil. If not for the drilling, we would not have the issues we have right now.


I could care less about the markets..

The Incident is going to be worse than most know,or realize.
We have a Oil Volcano at 5000 ft,..with a riser pipe attached thats spewing from 3 points,from a well thats 18,000 ft down from the sea floor.

Considering the 11 Lives lost..its a darn shame.

A 2nd BOP,,would have prevented this blowout as required in Europe.
21:15 UTC (5:15 PM EDT)
*Seems to me like the AOI in the EPAC is coming ashore, it has definitely lost most of its convection, and most 850MB vorticity has disappeared. Steering currents have pushed the system northward and satellite imagery confirms that. If the system does survive the rough Mexican terrain and does cross into the BOC, it should be monitored for further development.

We have a Oil Volcano at 5000 ft,..with a riser pipe attached thats spewing from 3 points,from a well thats 18,000 ft down from the sea floor.


and its gonna turn northern half of the GOM into a oily soup
Quoting WaterWitch11:
while planting strawberries, i found a baby rattle snake. i told my husband to please get him and that he was suppose to cut off his head. he couldn't do it, instead took the snake up the mountain and let it go.

i guess we all deserve to be here and have a certain purpose.

looks like the tornadoes are starting up again. no good.



Good for him. I do the same thing with poisonous snakes. I re-locate them to somewhere safer. Non-poisonous snakes are safe in my yard.
Quoting Patrap:


I could care less about the markets..

The Incident is going to be worse than most know,or realize.
We have a Oil Volcano at 5000 ft,..with a riser pipe attached thats spewing from 3 points,from a well thats 18,000 ft down from the sea floor.

Considering the 11 Lives lost..its a darn shame.

A 2nd BOP,,would have prevented this blowout as required in Europe.


So blowouts are allowed in America but not in Europe...land of the most advanced? Explain that.
1063. Patrap
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

We have a Oil Volcano at 5000 ft,..with a riser pipe attached thats spewing from 3 points,from a well thats 18,000 ft down from the sea floor.


and its gonna turn northern half of the GOM into a oily soup



All the GOM will see the Oil..in time..at the rate itsa Spewing.

I can Guarantee come dis time next weekend,..

Well,there gonna be some freaked out souls and images.
1064. Patrap
Quoting southlouisiana:


So blowouts are allowed in America but not in Europe...land of the most advanced? Explain that.


Your words up dere,not mine

Regulations and Oversight Homie,..plain and simple.


Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Another long night for arkansas man these guys cant get a break!


Looks like tonight will be a night similar to last night. I can only hope that more of the storms are over Eastern Arkansas where there are fewer people and more cropland.
Quoting Patrap:


Your words up dere,not mine

Regulations and Oversight Homie,..plain and simple.




Actually your words. And vague ones they were. Americans are suffocating in "regulations" and "oversight" by community organizers with a little power. What specific regulations and oversight are you speaking of is all I was asking.
1068. Seastep
Quoting Patrap:


Maybe we could turn the BP Execs into Bankers?

They Run amuck around the Globe unregulated just Like um..

But Id rather see them on the Marsh Line with a Bio Suit,no Mosquito repellent,doing some Clean up efforts ..


ROFLMAO.

Don't know the exact number, but there are tens of thousands of pages of regulations regarding both industries.

Right, unregulated. Housing bubble came FROM regulation. FROM insisting that everyone is entitled to a home.

No, just fools implementing regulations that cause problems. Banks never would have taken the risk, but they were forced... by govt. Outstanding leadership.



And, as a side note, Mr. Raines now stands to make millions, if not billions off of cap and tax.

Never let a crisis go to waste... he made millions (more bonuses than the evil "bankers") while being the root of the problem.

Private sector is not the problem.

Good evening.
its really sad pat
the saddest is the fact that the
GOM has the potenial to become the next dead sea of the world

i just don't understand why it would be allowed to happen in the first place
always always have a plan for the worst case situations
Link

Environmentalist Richard Charter of the Defenders of Wildlife organization said the magnitude of the oil leak could cause damage that would last decades.
"This event is a self-feeding fire," Charter told CNN. "It is so big and expanding so fast that it's pretty much beyond human response that can be effective. ... You're looking at a long-term poisoning of the area. Ultimately, this will have a multi-decade impact."


This is like a horrible science fiction movie, only its happening right in front of us.
21:45 UTC (5:45 PM EDT)
*A stronger compact area of convection has formed over land north of the larger convection. This AOI should continue to be monitored although development is highly unlikely, unless it can make itself into the BOC which in that case it should be monitored more closely.

Southlousiana, under the previous administration, regulations and regulatory agencies were gutted, and regulatory agencies have not been completely rebuilt yet.

And no community organization has jurisdiction over offshore oil rigs. That's just silly.
90 hour GFS 18z showing a small area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure area (1011 MB) located at around 40˚W and 15˚N. It will be interesting to see what unfolds.

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Southlousiana, under the previous administration, regulations and regulatory agencies were gutted, and regulatory agencies have not been completely rebuilt yet.

And no community organization has jurisdiction over offshore oil rigs. That's just silly.


No but a community organizor now does. That was most of his resume.
Now which regulations and agencies were gutted which can be tied to this accident? Specifically?
1075. beell
1076. IKE
Quoting Patrap:



All the GOM will see the Oil..in time..at the rate itsa Spewing.

I can Guarantee come dis time next weekend,..

Well,there gonna be some freaked out souls and images.


And I can't help but think about what is happening. Terrible.
1077. Patrap



1078. Patrap
Quoting IKE:


And I can't help but think about what is happening. Terrible.


Its kinda weird and overwhelming Ike..yellow sky here,South Winds a blowing..nasty residue in the heat here Uptown..

Cant wait for the rain to rinse this out tonight and tomorrow.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its really sad pat
the saddest is the fact that the
GOM has the potenial to become the next dead sea of the world

i just don't understand why it would be allowed to happen in the first place
always always have a plan for the worst case situations


Jellyfish populations explode in dead zones.

Sea of Japan:


Gulf of Mexico:


In fishing nets:
Afternoon all.

Interesting stuff about the Loop current eventually helping to bring some of the spilled oil around to the east coast of FL and into Bahamian waters. It also does put a mental / emotional damper on the prospects of oil drilling along the US east coast. So many wetlands are there to be destroyed, especially if one goes rogue in a location that allows the Gulf Stream to transport oil north along the coast. I'm also concerned that this blowout problem seems to be mostly man-made, i. e. that the problems which allowed the leak to become so egregious were not genuine "act of God" ones like a hurricane or freak waterspout or earthquake or something similar.

If as human beings we can't get things under control when we've caused the initial problem, what are our chances when we are also fighting mother nature?

It does raise some concerns that a change to non-fossil fuel energy sources needs to be happening sooner rather than later....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its really sad pat
the saddest is the fact that the
GOM has the potenial to become the next dead sea of the world

i just don't understand why it would be allowed to happen in the first place
always always have a plan for the worst case situations


OK we all love the Gulf but it isnt about to die. The Persian Guld didnt die after the Iraqis dumped 462 MILLION gallons of oil, which amount would take months to reach in this situation. Nor did the Ixtoc I rig blowout south of Texas which dumped over a million gallons per day for at least three months into the Gulf in the early 80s kill the Gulf.
It's a bad thing but it will not turn the Gulf into a "dead sea".
1082. IKE
From New Orleans discussion....

"AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BECOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE
COLUMN WILL BE SATURATED TO ABOVE 10K FEET AND PW VALUES NEAR 2.5
INCHES. THE COMBINATION OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE GULF WILL LIKELY
CAUSE ANY DEVELOPMENT TO BE EXCESSIVE RAIN MAKERS. WHILE THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD STAY TO OUR NORTH A FEW STRONG TO
EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
BOUNDARY STARTS TO FINALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
WHERE ANY TRAINING MIGHT OCCUR.


.LONG TERM...
THE BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED IN
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOME
CLEARING WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE AND WE SHOULD COMPLETELY
CLEAR OUT BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY.


.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ALONG WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE
LAKES UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH
WILL FINALLY HELP TO EASE THE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO RETREAT AS A WARM FRONT BY WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO
AN ONSHORE FLOW REGIME BY LATE IN THE WEEK."
A stronger La Nina means more dry air for the Atlantic, less shear and a much lessened chance for fish storms and an increased chance for west chuggers like Dean and Felix to impact Mexico and Central America. It also means a stronger subtropical high which will likely reduce SST's in the Atlantic this fall and into the winter.
George W. Bush specifically waived the requirement that acoustic regulators be used in offshore oil rigs, a device that helps prevent oil blowouts, and costs about $500,000. And the Minerals Management Service was so underfunded and lead by people in industry's pocket that a major scandal happened on George W. Bush's watch. Link
1085. IKE
From Mobile,AL....

"THE RISK OF STRONG TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AL THROUGH SE LA. LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE PROJECTED BY THE GFS TO BE ABOVE 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY MORNING...SLOWLY LOWERING AS THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY
SEWD...THE GFS STILL HAS THE BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALLS WITH THIS SCENARIO LOOKS
LIKELY WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...AND LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE IN
EXCESS OF 4 INCHES IS MORE LIKELY DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY TIME FRAME.
WE WILL LIKELY ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT
LEAST PART OF THE FCST AREA (ESPECIALLY NWRN THIRD) EITHER TONIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY AS WE FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA. 08/JW

TOTAL TIDES (ASTRONOMICAL PLUS WIND DRIVEN) ARE RUNNING ABOUT 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO
ONLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...COMBINED WITH A STRONG SPRING
TIDE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR ALL
COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

PRIMARY EFFECTS STILL EXPECTED TO BE NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING AND RUN UP
OF WAVES ALONG AREA BEACHES...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOBILE BAY
REGION WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AFFECTS EAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE."
I've always found jelly fish to be the ugliest looking creatures whenever they are out of their natural environment. Had a problem with them some years back off the south coast of NP; there were hundreds of them, brown, irregular dirty looking splotches of them, jammed up against the south coast beaches and shoreline. Not sure if they were being affected by some anomalous wind or water current pattern. However, they were really nasty looking. In the open sea, they are quite beautiful and graceful....
By the time the spill is capped, the amount of oil leaking into the Gulf may exceed 100 million gallons. The Exxon Valdez disaster was by contrast 10.8 million gallons. Link
state of ark get ready things are about to start a popin
1093. Patrap
wavcis.csi.lsu.edu

Buoys,GOM SST Models, Currents, more..

Conditions at BURL1 as of
(5:00 pm CDT)
2200 GMT on 05/01/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 150 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 24 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 28 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.70 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )

5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.0 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.5 °F
the wind is absolutely crazy here right now. i know we are suppose to have 25mph gusts but it feels stronger. northern california
Quoting help4u:
Freelancehistoirnia,you have not studied your history didn't you know Bush blew up the trade center ,'blew up the leeves,caused the disaster of Katrina by responing in only 2 days.The democrats are blameless!!Good time for the one to take over the oil companies.We don't want a good disaster to go to waste.Take over health care,banks,car companies and now the oil!That is pretty much the whole country and he done it in less than 2 years!!America was doomed way before an oil spill!


truly there is no help4u
Quoting beell:
Photobucket
Link


I swear that looks like a tulip, guess its cause im thinking about ma's day

1099. Patrap
BP says it's hiring unemployed fishermen for boom deployment

by Associated Press

wwltv.com

Posted on May 1, 2010 at 5:50 PM

SHELL BEACH, La. -- A subcontractor for BP PLC is hiring unemployed fishermen for a boom deployment off the Louisiana coast.

Oil Mop LLC, which specializes in oil cleanups, plans to have fishermen show up at Hopedale on Sunday, where they would be put into groups and sent out to place boom across wetlands that border upon Breton Sound.

Earl Norton, an oyster lugger worker, says crews are going to be paid $38 to $48 an hour. He says it's better than sitting at home, like he did after Hurricane Katrina.

Shrimp boat deckhand Ricky John says the long term effects of the spill worry him. He says he thinks the shrimping outlook will be bleak for years to come.

John says there are plenty of fishermen but BP doesn't have enough boom as the oil creeps closer to shore.

(Copyright 2010 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
state of ark get ready things are about to start a popin


I was rushing when I first read this post. I thought it said to get the ARK ready cause things are about to start popping. (Noah's Ark)

LOL
1101. Patrap


Winds will determine path of oil

by Derek Kevra / WWL-TV Meteorologist

wwltv.com

Posted on May 1, 2010 at 5:35 PM

Meteorologist Derek Kevra explains how the wind paterns will direct the oil and where that oil might go over the short and long term.
at 719 pm may 1 we are at a temp of 73 with a heat index of 80 very warm
april was also the warmest month on record
in a normal year april would have had 10 to 15 nights of below freezing temps this year april had one night of frezzing temps
we also get around 70 mm of rain 15 cm snow in april this past april we only got 36 mm for entire month and no snow at all
so the above normal temps continue with below normal precip as well
so far may looks to be above in the first week as well all the vegetation is in full bloom about 3 weeks earlier than normal
most of the trees here are full of new leaves it looks and feels more like late june than early may
1104. Patrap
1106. help4u
I see Bush is already blamed for this also!Dems control everything by super majority!One thing they can't blame on Bush are the wasted 8 days Obama spent campigning while the biggest enviromental disaster in history happened!All the enviromental people on this blog will not say a word about his indifference!
1107. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
North Little Rock, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

1108. Patrap
Storms are starting to explode. I am not liking the wording from the SPC about strong, long track tornados.
oh great, looks like the storms have me in the crosshairs, again. Here comes another night of little to no sleep.
1112. help4u
PUT ALL THE IGNORE BUTTONS ON SINCE NO ONE CAN DEBATE THE TRUTH!!"Eight DAYS IN APRIL",WHEN THE ONE DID NOTHING!!
1113. xcool
Link


live show
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
21:15 UTC (5:15 PM EDT)
*Seems to me like the AOI in the EPAC is coming ashore, it has definitely lost most of its convection, and most 850MB vorticity has disappeared. Steering currents have pushed the system northward and satellite imagery confirms that. If the system does survive the rough Mexican terrain and does cross into the BOC, it should be monitored for further development.
The system is not going onshore yet but the convection is flaring up due to the high mountains
TORNADO WARNINGS all over ARKANSAS.

Live Stream Web Cam trying to intercept Tornadoes:
Link
1116. Patrap


Gulf of Mexico - Deepwater Horizon Incident

DATE: May 01, 2010 13:44:31 CST
Update on Administration-wide response efforts in the Gulf Coast

Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center

Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240

The response to the BP Oil Spill began as an emergency search and rescue mission by the U.S. Coast Guard and other partners on April 20.

Concurrently, command center operations were stood up immediately in the Gulf Coast to begin also addressing the environmental impact of the incident.

The morning after the explosion, Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar deployed Deputy Secretary David J. Hayes down to the gulf to assist with coordination and response to the incident.

The Administration immediately began holding regular calls with BP leadership and numerous senior-level meetings have been held between the administration and BP to discuss BP's response effort and federal oversight and support.

The National Response Team (NRT), an organization of 16 federal departments and agencies responsible for coordinating emergency preparedness and response to oil and hazardous substance pollution incidents was quickly activated and a coordinated group of federal partners-including the United States Coast Guard, Departments of Homeland Security, Commerce, Interior and the Environmental Protection Agency-immediately began directing and overseeing BP's response.

The President immediately began actively monitoring the incident and consulting on the response. The President has been in contact with all the governors of the states that may be affected and ordered that the administration use every single available resource at our disposal.

The Department of Defense is fully integrated into the DHS-led team and fully supportive of all response activities. Navy assets have been involved since day #1, and the Coast Guard and Department of Defense continue to work closely together, anticipating requirements, identifying response options, and rapidly providing response support.

The Secretary of Defense has approved a request for two C-130 aircraft with Modular Aerial Spray Systems (MASS), which are currently en route to the affected area. The Coast Guard has requested assistance from the Department of Defense for these aircraft.

These aircraft dispense the same dispersant chemical being used by BP and the federal responders. Each system is capable of covering up to 250 acres per flight with three flights per aircraft per day.

Additionally, in direct support of the Coast Guard under an existing pollution clean-up and salvage operations agreement, the Navy is providing a variety of oil pollution control equipment. The Navy has sent thousands of feet of inflatable oil boom with mooring equipment, several skimming systems, related support gear, and personnel to support oil spill response efforts. Naval Air Station Pensacola is serving as a staging facility for Coast Guard contractor-provided equipment.

To prepare for the possible spreading of the oil slick across the Gulf Coast and in support of the 2nd Unified command Center in Mobile, Ala., Department of Defense is airlifting additional boom materials to Mobile later today. The booms are currently located on four tractor trailers to expedite transportation on the receiving end.

Early on, the President directed responding agencies to not only devote every resource to respond to this incident but to also determine its cause. Earlier this week, Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano and Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar laid out the next steps for the investigation.

The President has also dispatched Secretary Napolitano, Secretary Salazar, EPA Administrator Jackson, Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Change Policy Carol Browner and NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco to the Gulf Coast to ensure all is being done to respond to this oil spill.

Secretary Napolitano announced that this incident is a spill of national significance, the Department of Interior has announced that they will be sending SWAT teams to the Gulf to inspect all platforms and rigs, and the EPA is conducting air monitoring activities to gather information on the impact of the controlled burn on air quality.

As part of the designation of the BP Oil Spill as a Spill of National Significance, Secretary Napolitano has announced that U.S. Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Thad Allen will serve as the National Incident Commander for the administration's continued, coordinated response—providing additional authority and oversight in leveraging every available resource to respond to the BP oil spill and minimize the associated environmental risks.

As National Incident Commander, Admiral Allen will continue to work closely with Coast Guard Rear Admiral Mary Landry, the federal on-scene coordinator, and the Departments of Homeland Security, Defense, Interior and Commerce, the Environmental Protection Agency and other federal departments and agencies as appropriate—as well as BP, the responsible party in the spill—to ensure the efficient continued deployment and coordination of vital response assets, personnel and equipment that were activated immediately after the spill began.

To keep the public informed about the latest, validated environmental air and water sampling results, EPA has launched a dedicated website at www.epa.gov/bpspill, which will also provide information on the broader federal response.

For overall information about the response effort the public can go to www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com

In response to the BP oil spill, the Secretary of Defense is authorizing under title 32 the mobilization of the Louisiana National Guard to help in the ongoing efforts to assist local communities in the cleanup and removal of oil and to protect critical habitats from contamination. As the responsible party in this incident, the government will hold BP accountable for the costs of the deployment.

The Minerals Management Service remains in contact with all oil and gas operators in the sheen area. Two platforms have stopped production and one has been evacuated as a safety measure. Approximately 6.2 million cubic feet of natural gas is shut-in—less than one-tenth of a percent of daily gas production in the Gulf of Mexico.

As the nation’s leading scientific resource for oil spills, NOAA has been on the scene of the BP spill from the start, providing coordinated scientific weather and biological response services to federal, state and local organizations. NOAA spill specialists are advising the U.S. Coast Guard on cleanup options as well as advising all affected federal, state and local partners on sensitive marine resources at risk in this area of the Gulf of Mexico.

Rapid response teams are staged to deploy to shorelines affected by oil to evaluate and determine an appropriate clean-up effort to minimize the impact to the environment.

A volunteer program has been established and a toll-free number—(866)-448-5816—set up for people to call to learn about volunteer opportunities in all areas and what training is required.

By the Numbers to Date:

* Personnel were quickly deployed and nearly 2,000 are currently responding to protect the shoreline and wildlife—hundreds more than yesterday.
* Approximately 75 response vessels have been responding on site, including skimmers, tugs, barges, and recovery vessels to assist in containment and cleanup efforts—in addition to dozens of aircraft, remotely operated vehicles, and multiple mobile offshore drilling units.
* More than 275,000 feet of boom (barrier) have been deployed to contain the spill—an increase of nearly 60,000 feet since yesterday. An additional 316,470 feet is available.
* More than 1 million gallons of an oil-water mix have been recovered—an increase of approximately 150,000 gallons since yesterday.
* Nearly 143,000 gallons of dispersant have been deployed—an increase of more than 3,500 gallons since yesterday. An additional 68,300 gallons are available.
* Six staging areas (Biloxi, Miss., Pensacola, Fla., Venice, La., Pascagoula, Miss. and Theodore, Ala., and Port Sulphur, La.) were set up to protect sensitive shorelines.
patrap, AR has had 7 tornado warnings issued in the last 15mins or so
1118. Patrap
Somewhere a Tea Kettle Whistles in the Forest..


.."Tweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet"....
1119. txjac
Thanks Patrap for post 1116. Good information
1120. Patrap
Quoting roadrage150:
patrap, AR has had 7 tornado warnings issued in the last 15mins or so



Sure is Lit up..

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
NEW!! Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.


SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 650 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
TORNADO WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 644 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
TORNADO WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 642 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
TORNADO WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 637 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
TORNADO WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 636 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 634 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 629 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
TORNADO WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 628 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
TORNADO WARNING HUNTSVILLE AL - KHUN 625 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 622 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
TORNADO WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 619 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
TORNADO WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 615 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
TORNADO WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 608 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
TORNADO WARNING NASHVILLE TN - KOHX 602 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010
1121. IKE
Environmentalist Richard Charter of the Defenders of Wildlife organization said the magnitude of the oil leak could cause damage that would last decades.

"This event is a self-feeding fire," Charter told CNN. "It is so big and expanding so fast that it's pretty much beyond human response that can be effective. ... You're looking at a long-term poisoning of the area. Ultimately, this will have a multi-decade impact.".....


from CNN.
1123. IKE
1124. Patrap
Been looking for some good news myself Ike.
Not much if any iz out there ATM.

Sigh..
Little Rock, AR LIVE coverage of Tornado Outbreak:
Link
THere are booms all over the place here in southern MS. Even some of the casinos put their own out around their buildings.
1127. help4u
Even your guy's buddy "Bill Maher" wonders were Obama was for 8 days.Go to Doug Ross journal and see what the one was doing for 8 days!
1128. Patrap


.."Itsa Crude,crude Summer"..
I heard today that one of th emain issues they are having with stopping the oil leak is the fact that the rig is just sitting on top of the leaks and they can not get to them. All of the thing they have to collect or stop the oil are not working because the rig is in the way.
1131. help4u
You can say that again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
1132. Patrap
The Rig is well away from the Broken riser piping..

The well is at 5000 ft.

And the relief well Rig DD 3 is in place and the relief well could take 30-90 days to relieve the Well flowing unabated.


1133. Patrap
If ya wanna root for a reality show,root for the 2 12 hour drill shifts on DD 3 that are going be drilling for the relief Well,..they gonna be busy folks.

And the same danger is always present for another accident, even in this situation too.


So prayers cant hurt none here..
not my pics, but a good view
Quote:
Breton Sound 21. Not to state the obvious, but the oil is light brown. Sorry for the picture quality.










Pine Bluff, AR is about to get hit by a Tornado:
Link


Severe storms.com Tornado footage LIVE:
Link
I don't think we will see black tar like the Exxon spill. This crude should breakdown quick with sunlight.
Bad situation for Pine Bluff.

There is a potential tornado on the ground.
1139. tkeith
CharlesImages is in Arkansas chasing. He should be between Pine Bluff and Little Rock.
chasertv.com has chaser cams all around threat areas. Not sure if you all know about that site. It is pretty neat.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Pine Bluff, AR is about to get hit by a Tornado:
Link


Severe storms.com Tornado footage LIVE:
Link


He may get the strom coming out of Pine Bluff.
Confirmed tornado near Mount Vernon.
New blog
Yea I am watching some live feeds all around pinebluff and that storm looks nasty.
Big wall cloud froma chaser just south of pine bluff...looks like camera pointed north right at that massive cell.
NEW BLOG
In response to the W.U. poll: "Texas passed a new law that allows police to arrest people who don't obey mandatory evacuation orders. The new law gives county judges and mayors the power to authorize use of “reasonable force” to remove people from the area. What do you think of this new law?"

I live in Texas and had stayed during a mandatory evacuation. I know lots of people who chose to stay through a "mandatory evacuation". The police won't be able to change that.

I agree that some people knowingly endanger themselves or their kids... and those people ought to be arrested or forced to stay at a local evacuation shelter. However, evacuation zones are basically designated by county or by map lines. Plenty of perfectly reasoning adults can choose to stay, knowing their own circumstances well enough. Based on their house structure, land topography and elevation of the residence and known hazards such as trees or debris fields... some people make a correct decision to stay.

If a Cat-5 were approaching... then I'm a gone pecan. For anything less, my house is sturdily built and I'm not concerned about storm surge or flooding. There are no trees within falling distance of my house. There is no reason for me to evacuate only to be kept away from my own house for 3-4 weeks.

Basically... you may hear about a dozen or so families that were forcibly evacuated, but for every one of those there were several hundred other families who stayed and weren't forced or threatened into evacuating. The law won't change anything. It merely gives police the right to enforce the evac... not the manpower, vehicles, shelter space, time and patience to do it. The law is almost completely irrelevant.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0831 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN AR/NRN LA/NERN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 125...

VALID 020131Z - 020215Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN AREAS AFFECTED

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 125 CONTINUES.

AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE SINCE 23-00Z
SUGGESTS STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AR TRACKING NEWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER
INTO WRN TN/NWRN MS WILL HAVE AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD TO BECOME
TORNADIC.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES/AREA VWP DATA INDICATED AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
SHEAR FROM NRN LA INTO CENTRAL/ERN AR AND WRN TN DURING THE LAST 1-2
HOURS. THIS INCREASE IS LOCATED ALONG AND S OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHICH EXTENDED FROM E TX NEWD TO AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
AT TXK AND THEN NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL TO NERN AR. THE GREATEST
INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES EXTENDED FROM NRN LA INTO
CENTRAL-NERN AR AND EWD INTO WRN TN WITH VALUES AOA 300 M2/S2. THIS
CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS LIKELY A RESULT OF A STRENGTHENING
SSWLY LLJ FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO MID SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE MOISTURE
RETURN WITH LOW LCLS SUPPORTING A GREATER TORNADO THREAT.

..PETERS.. 05/02/2010