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Gulf of Mexico low growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:51 PM GMT on May 21, 2009

The large extratropical storm that has been drenching Florida over the past few days continues to pour rain on the state as it treks slowly west-northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall amounts as high as 23.75 inches have been measured in Northern Florida at the Flagler County Fairgrounds over the past four days, and Daytona Beach has seen over 14 inches, forcing closure of numerous roads. Another 1 - 3 inches are expected in Northeast Florida today from the storm, along with beach erosion, 7 - 10 foot waves, and tides 2 - 3 feet above normal. The bad weather in Northeast Florida should gradually subside Friday and the rains should diminish substantially on Saturday, when the center of the storm is expected to move ashore over Louisiana.


Figure 1. Storm total rainfall estimated from the Melbourne radar.

Latest visible satellite loops show that the circulation of the low has grown more circular and better defined, and heavy thunderstorm activity is starting to build off the Gulf Coast of Florida on the low's east side. These thunderstorms are beginning to form spiral bands characteristic of a developing tropical depression. Water vapor satellite imagery shows that the low is moving into an area of dry continental air, though, and this dry air will slow development. Wind shear is about 20 knots, which is low enough to allow development. While none of the computer models develop the storm, they generally predict the storm should move northwestwards towards Louisiana over the next two days, and the shear is lower to the north. The low is currently over Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) of about 27°C in the Loop Current, which is about 1°C (1.8°F) warmer than average. SSTs of at least 26°C are typically needed to support a tropical storm, so I expect the low will continue to develop through Friday. By Friday night, the low will be approaching the Louisiana coast, and SSTs will cool to 26°C. Still, with wind shear expected to drop, this low has a medium (30 - 50%) chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical depression before its expected landfall Saturday over Louisiana. Since there will be strong winds from the west creating wind shear over the storm, plus dry air to the storm's west, most of the heavy rain should be confined to the east of the storm's center, along a stretch of coast from New Orleans to Pensacola. Rainfall totals of 3 - 6 inches can be expected.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.

I'll have an update Friday morning, or sooner if NHC declares this storm an area of interest (an "Invest").

Jeff Masters
Majestic
Majestic
Taken last night with a 16mm lense. Enjoy Mark www.shockpic.smugmug.com

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Pat is that sight on the front page of blog. It doesnt seem like satellite from that sight is current but they got the forecast right 100% rain.
Quoting Patrap:
Dunno,never looked at the Map that Hard.

GW isnt an Issue ,really.

The warming is Occurring Globally,what is at issue however,is the cause.

Maybe I should have specified anthro =}
Just thought I'd point it out. I thought it was funny =P How bout that explosion of convection west of Haiti? Have to keep an eye on it, depending on it's direction it may can get to <25 knots shear, though I expect it will die down soon. another thing: Is the ULL pulling north away from the surface circulation?
Quoting jcpoulard:
From Haiti
It's raining since last saturday on the south of country. When I make a look on the satellite I can the system (Jamaica-Haiti-Cuba) is literaly explode. I would like to know if they are any chance for this system to develop on a named storm. If not how we can explain this explosion of energy... ?
Thank you every one.


Its all from the Low in the GOM. I don't see anything developing....We just need this LOW to move! You are stuck in a band that is not moving. This is very character of SubTropical like systems where often miles from the COC has problems.
G'day all, well we are still twiddling our thumbs here in the islands, no rain no wind, glad you lot are getting rain up north, without the flooding drama of course, Jamaica, haiti, and the DR are battling floods also,
505. DDR
Hello everyone,yet another hot, dry day again in Trinidad,i guess the rainy season is running late again just like last year.Below average rain in the sahel could means a greater chance of a prolonged dry season for us in the long run.
Tampa-when the low gets going, will it bring rain back over SoFl?
Quoting TampaSpin:
The Low is not getting any better defined or organized...Still to much Shear and Low SST's for anything to take off. Just alot of rain!


Shear isn't horrible, its about 20 kts.
SST's are acceptable.
Subtropical Storms have a looser range. I doubt this will ever be fully tropical.
Latest from the Jamaica meteorological service:

NEWS RELEASE

*** FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL PARISHES ***




The Meteorological Service has continued the Flash Flood Warning for low-lying and flood-prone areas of all parishes until 5:00 p.m. tomorrow.

This Warning means that flooding has been reported or will occur shortly.

Satellite imagery indicates a broad Area of Low Pressure has developed across the central Caribbean extending over Jamaica. The island continued to experience periods of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms throughout today especially over eastern and central parishes.

The forecast is for limited movement of this system; therefore, the general instability should persist through tonight into tomorrow; resulting in periods of showers, across most parishes. Further flash flooding of low-lying and a flood- prone areas is therefore expected.

Fishers and other marine interests are advised to exercise caution in areas of showers and thunderstorms as gusty winds and rough seas may be encountered north and south of the island.


The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.

shear is still very high with the blob in the windwardLink
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
THERE IS A BIG EXPLOSION OF CONVECTION EAST OF JAMAICA. IF WE LOOK AT SHEAR MAPS, SHEAR IS LESSENING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS AREA OF DISTRUBED WEATHER. WHAT DO YOU THINK?


LOL
512. DDR
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Latest from the Jamaica meteorological service:

NEWS RELEASE

*** FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL PARISHES ***




The Meteorological Service has continued the Flash Flood Warning for low-lying and flood-prone areas of all parishes until 5:00 p.m. tomorrow.

This Warning means that flooding has been reported or will occur shortly.

Satellite imagery indicates a broad Area of Low Pressure has developed across the central Caribbean extending over Jamaica. The island continued to experience periods of moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms throughout today especially over eastern and central parishes.

The forecast is for limited movement of this system; therefore, the general instability should persist through tonight into tomorrow; resulting in periods of showers, across most parishes. Further flash flooding of low-lying and a flood- prone areas is therefore expected.

Fishers and other marine interests are advised to exercise caution in areas of showers and thunderstorms as gusty winds and rough seas may be encountered north and south of the island.


The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.


Hi from trinidad,thats terrible,we could use some of that rain here.
If shear were lower that large blob over E Jamaica, Haiti and parts of Cuba might have a chance to develop, feel very sorry those in Haiti , they always seem to get the worst of the rains & floods.
Hmm low pressure in the central Caribbean. One of you guys has got to beat the doctor to the punch if were going to have new champion. Small joke.
516. Relix
That big blog is causing rain here in PR as well.
Quoting Relix:
That big blog is causing rain here in PR as well.


Covering a large area about 700 miles from East to west in my estimation.
the blob off west mexico, has a yellow circle on it,
Link
Quoting stormpetrol:


Covering a large area about 700 miles from East to west in my estimation.


or west to east.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Shear isn't horrible, its about 20 kts.
SST's are acceptable.
Subtropical Storms have a looser range. I doubt this will ever be fully tropical.


I do believe Shear is more than 20Kts......the tops are being blowed off anything trying to gather..
Guys take a look at this map very very closely. Paste image url into your browser if you want to see it full-size:



Now look right where the big glob is that you're all talking about. I want you to see how to the left of the blob the wind barbs are aiming towards the NE. Now look to the right of the blob. The wind barbs point towards the east or ESE.

So what's happening is the upper-level air-flow is splitting in that area due to the ULL in the gulf of Mexico, causing two separate air streams to separate and pull away from each other. This is called diffluence. So think about it, air is getting transported away from that area, so new air needs to replace it. The only place that that air can come from is below (remember this is taking place in the upper atmosphere). This causes a bunch of air to rise from the surface, and we all know that when air rises it condensates, forms clouds, and when strong enough, thunderstorms. That is all that this is, it is baroclinic process not tropical process. There is no threat of development from this area of thunderstorms.
Quoting DestinJeff:
there is huge blowup of convection over central Iowa that probably could develop, if not for the 1000s of miles of land between it and water. shear is low and CSTs (Cornfield Surface Temperatures) support development otherwise.


LMAO
Thanx for the nice explanation Levi.
Quoting DestinJeff:
that was a good explanation, Levi. i am just jabbing you about the baroclinic process thing.

i guess you just put on a baroclinic with that explanation


LOL

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI




NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI




Coastal Flood Warning

Statement as of 3:59 PM CDT on May 21, 2009

... Coastal Flood Warning in effect until 7 PM CDT Saturday...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a coastal
Flood Warning... which is in effect until 7 PM CDT Saturday. The
coastal Flood Watch is no longer in effect.

An area of low pressure will result in moderate to strong
northeast and easterly winds through Friday. These winds will pile
water along east facing shores from near Bay St. Louis to Port
Fourchon and increase tides further above normal over the next
couple days.

Tide levels were already running one to one and one half feet
above normal near Waveland Mississippi and Lake Borgne around the
time of high tide late this morning. The onshore winds will
continue to cause water levels to rise to 2 to 2.5 feet above
normal around the time of high tide Friday. Tides may reach one to
one and one half feet above normal farther west from Southwest
Pass of the Mississippi River to Port Fourchon.

Minor flooding of low lying roadways may occur in Hancock County
Mississippi... and minor flooding of low lying areas may occur
outside of hurricane protection levees from near Lake Catherine
and Lake Borgne... to Grand Isle and Port Fourchon.



Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Warning means that flooding is occurring or
imminent. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert
for rising water... and take appropriate action to protect life
and property.
456, Levi,anyone else
What is a Rex Block?
it will be tough to get those astronauts down tomorrow morning. beachside is notorius for those early morning thunderboomers in late may
THE REX BLOCK

METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY


The Rex Block is a blocking pattern that in relation to the United States occurs most often in the spring and most often occurs along or near the West Coast. A Rex Block has two adjacent highs and lows. The most impressive Rex Blocks will have a strong low pressure next to a strong high pressure. The high pressure will be located in a generally north direction from the low pressure. The low associated with the Rex Block is not completely cut-off from the upper level flow, but does have little east-west movement. Strong ridging north of the low causes the airflow to move from high latitudes to low latitudes with little comparable west-east movement of the air. The airflow pattern follows a backward "S" trajectory. In the example image, air flowing into the West Coast of Canada then flows south into the Pacific off the Mexican West Coast

COC beginning to move west as expected

Popcorn thunderstorms still fizzling as soon as they form due to westerly shear from the ULL. You can see their cirrus debris being carried ESE over the center. The ULL is still displaced to the north of the surface low, and as a result the westerly winds on the southern side of the ULL are shearing the thunderstorms trying to form near the surface center. If this low can't get vertically stacked it will tear itself apart. Divided we fall....
Quoting Levi32:

...the upper-level air-flow is splitting in that area due to the ULL in the gulf of Mexico, causing two separate air streams to separate and pull away from each other. This is called diffluence.


Levi,

Thanks for the "Baro" clinic, from here in the Turks and Caicos, (under the split between the two separate air streams) We don't need more rain.

CRS
[edit] ...I guess I could say that this evening I am "under the diffluence" ...NOT under the Influence.
530. Pat beat me....lol
Hey Pat.....is there a shortcut to links that I am missing? I always have to type the whole code: href="url" target="_blank" text
You just seem to be able to do it so fast.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Levi,

Thanks for the "Baro" clinic, from here in the Turks and Caicos, (under the split between the two separate air streams) We don't need more rain.

CRS
[edit] ...I guess I could say that this evening I am "under the diffluence" ...NOT under the Influence.


Lol very funny CRS. I am sorry about the rain. Hopefully it will move on soon.
Quoting Levi32:
Hey Pat.....is there a shortcut to links that I am missing? I always have to type the whole code: href="url" target="_blank" text

You just seem to be able to do it so fast.


Not that Im aware of.


Having multiple Tabs Opens allows me ez access to a Lot of er,stuff I have stashed.
542. HCW
No doubt this one will get tagged 91L sometime tomorrow morning. After all they tagged 90L and it's looked horrible. Shear will relax and this thing should get named before landfall
Lots of rain moving into Haiti...



Showers/t-storms affecting the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico as well.

Quoting DDR:

Hi from trinidad,thats terrible,we could use some of that rain here.

yeah, the roads in St. Thomas are impassable hope you get the rain that you need. :)
Tagged 91L, maybe...Named Ana, not very likely. Not enough time for it to develop.
Quoting Levi32:
Guys take a look at this map very very closely. Paste image url into your browser if you want to see it full-size:



Now look right where the big glob is that you're all talking about. I want you to see how to the left of the blob the wind barbs are aiming towards the NE. Now look to the right of the blob. The wind barbs point towards the east or ESE.

So what's happening is the upper-level air-flow is splitting in that area due to the ULL in the gulf of Mexico, causing two separate air streams to separate and pull away from each other. This is called diffluence. So think about it, air is getting transported away from that area, so new air needs to replace it. The only place that that air can come from is below (remember this is taking place in the upper atmosphere). This causes a bunch of air to rise from the surface, and we all know that when air rises it condensates, forms clouds, and when strong enough, thunderstorms. That is all that this is, it is baroclinic process not tropical process. There is no threat of development from this area of thunderstorms.


Great explanation!
547. JRRP
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Tagged 91L, maybe...Named Ana, not very likely. Not enough time for it to develop.


Anyone willing to go out on a limb and say no kidding, it will turn into invest 91L?
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:


Anyone willing to go out on a limb and say no kidding, it will turn into invest 91L?


I hesitate to use the term "will" because the NHC has an extremely inconsistent track record on what they do name and what they don't. Even what they label an invest is inconsistent. IMHO I think it should be labeled an invest, but I have no clue how the NHC will treat this system.
JRRP, are you in the DR, my other half is there in samana bay diving, he says it has been raining for a week and the rivers are running wild
GOM zoomed-in visible loop

If you look closely you can see the ULL directly NNE of the surface center. The trick is to look at the cirrus and not the low-level clouds. The cirrus appear more milky and transparent. Then it becomes quite obvious how tilted this system is and how it is shearing itself to pieces.
Hey Storm if you are still out there the buoy closest s. of Jamaica shows a bp of 29.77 and falling is that just a wave passing by that I have seen on some surface maps or might there be some more significance, or is that close to normal pressure for that area.
Quoting Levi32:


I hesitate to use the term "will" because the NHC has an extremely inconsistent track record on what they do name and what they don't. Even what they label an invest is inconsistent. IMHO I think it should be labeled an invest, but I have no clue how the NHC will treat this system.


no guts no glory. I hate forecasts that say 30% or 50%. At my job it is all or nothing. It is either going to happen or it isnt. Just curious if anyone thinks that it will def be 91L within the next day or two. I think the NHC wants to enjoy their last two weeks before they ramp up operations haha.
554. JRRP
Quoting keywestbrat:
JRRP, are you in the DR, my other half is there in samana bay diving, he says it has been raining for a week and the rivers are running wild

yeah i live in santo domingo
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:


no guts no glory. I hate forecasts that say 30% or 50%. At my job it is all or nothing. It is either going to happen or it isnt. Just curious if anyone thinks that it will def be 91L within the next day or two. I think the NHC wants to enjoy their last two weeks before they ramp up operations haha.


I agree I've always hated statistical probabilities. My direct answer is YES it is an invest now, in all true definition of that term, but I can't start betting on what the NHC will do or not do. IMO it SHOULD be an invest. It's a significant low-pressure area over waters greater than 26C south of 30N.
Quoting JRRP:

yeah i live in santo domingo

brilliant, nice to meet you, are you a local?
It was pretty cloudy all day in southern MS but the skies have cleared out quite a bit. It looks like all that dry air to the west of the COC has actually faded away and the moisture has taken over.
Last post I probably getting boring but in math when you have many variables similar to weather you often have several answers to the same question,equation thats why they are expressed in percentages.
Quoting DestinJeff:
there is huge blowup of convection over central Iowa that probably could develop, if not for the 1000s of miles of land between it and water. shear is low and CSTs (Cornfield Surface Temperatures) support development otherwise.

LMAO! Evening all. Destin you seem to have the quote of the evening.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Last post I probably getting boring but in math when you have many variables similar to weather you often have several answers to the same question,equation thats why they are expressed in percentages.


That's true when you know the value for one variable, and then there can be many different values for all the other variables. In the weather though, there is an almost infinite number of variables, and we're not looking for an answer to just one of them, we want the answer for when all of them are known. Obviously that is impossible which is why weather will always be unpredictable to a point.
Evening all

Barometer Bob show starts in about 20 minutes...His guest tonight is Steve Drews from Impact Forecasting. Then he is having us on around 9. Hope everyone will tune in!


Low Pressure Area (1006 hPa) from Japan Meteorological Agency

model track from CMC is towards Hainan Island, China.


nothing from India Meteorological Department, but states a low pressure is likely to form tomorrow in central Bay of Bengal.

CMC tracks this system towards the northwest to northeast towards Bangladesh or Mynamar.
Just heard from hubby on the west coast...he said he felt the quake the other night in LA down in San Diego - was at a stop light - thought a truck was going by or something and didn't see anything. Thought his car was having a problem then.

Going from being able to see it coming to not have any warning.

Fun fun. Everyone has their issues with weather...
whoa, the rain event near, on or around the windward, have to see the stats on that tommorrow, so far not a world news event,Link
I dropped out of Calculus I hope because I was to lazy but not only do you have to know all the variables but you have to now all the rates of change. So I think at the least weather forecasting will always be a chess game or an art.
Quoting DestinJeff:
perhaps the lack of divergence in the projected path of the L is why NHC opts not to label it invest. honestly, if many factors point to non-development (tropical) then labeling invest is probably a colossal waste of resources.

we just see the surface, and labeling something invest or otherwise surely has costs associated with it. so, a "low in the gulf", absent other conditions that may lead to tropical development does not warrant an invest label.... yet.


No......I've seen far more pathetic systems than this labeled invests in the last several years. The only reason the NHC won't label it an invest is because they don't seem to believe it will become a warm-core system. Right now it is still almost totally cold-core but that is changing as we type.
Quoting DestinJeff:


actually, I think we agree and said the same thing: NHC doesn't label just because it there. Other factors must point toward tropical development to warrant an invest designation.

or could be that I have no idea what their criteria is, which is far more likely.



NHC does not label them as invests
Quoting Levi32:


No......I've seen far more pathetic systems than this labeled invests in the last several years.


Amen to that!
If you listen to the show this evening, don't forget to join in StormChat as well.
National Hurricane Center: Miami, FL
Tropical Cyclone Outlooks
Pacific Northeast
0:00 AM UTC May 22 2009
========================================

The area of disturbed weather about 550 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has shown little change in organization today. Development.. if any is expected to be slow to occur as it moves slowly west-northwest.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================================
There is a low chance of this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
I was just outside the house in Tally having a cig after dinner and the steady tropical like drizzle that just came through was definately of the "cool" variety and not the warm salty like type you get with a warm cored surface disturbance feeding off of the ocean...Fun to look at the clouds rolling by though.....
NHC definition of an invest:

A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.

Link- Link
Quoting Levi32:
GOM zoomed-in visible loop

If you look closely you can see the ULL directly NNE of the surface center. The trick is to look at the cirrus and not the low-level clouds. The cirrus appear more milky and transparent. Then it becomes quite obvious how tilted this system is and how it is shearing itself to pieces.

Agree 100%, I mentioned that earlier. Looks to me as if it isn't getting any better either, Not exactly moving in conjunction.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST NEAR 15
KT. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE BASED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT FROM CIMSS.
COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH
AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WHICH IS ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE IN
N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-11N.

for everyone who is saying SST are too low, i just want to point this guy out. he formed into a tropical system over waters LESS than 24C and into a hurricane over waters less than 27C.

im not saying the gulf low is going to be like that, but nature doesnt always follow the script all the time.

Link
Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity

The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot. The top panel shows the potential minimum central pressure for a hurricane at any given location (in millibars). Only values less than 1000mb are shaded. Cyan squares indicate grid points where the algorithm failed to converge. Also shown are the sea surface temperatures (°C). The bottom panel shows the potential maximum wind speed expressed in terms of the type and severity of storm they would represent (TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, H1-H5 = Hurricanes of category 1-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).


582. IMA
O.K., I may have been MIA for a couple months but I see that I'm desperately needed as the mistress of discipline, since nobody beat DestinJeff for daring to mention the Hebert Box! I know it was just in passing, but you know what kind of a bucket of worms that opens!

{{{{{{{{{WU Buddies}}}}}}}} I sure miss y'all!!! I'll fill y'all in on what's going on with me very soon, and I'll be getting back to more regular visits. I was just in for a minute while waiting to head back in to San Antonio from the gun club & am logging off now. I hope to be back on tonight, though.

Hey IMA, great to see you around again!
GOM swell size dropping rapidly and winds are also, being a surfer I want this low to grow but why are the winds and swells dropping????
Quoting floridafisherman:
for everyone who is saying SST are too low, i just want to point this guy out. he formed into a tropical system over waters LESS than 24C and into a hurricane over waters less than 27C.

im not saying the gulf low is going to be like that, but nature doesnt always follow the script all the time.

Link


I hope that folks aren't denying that tropical cyclogenesis can still occur over waters under 26C. However, there are some things to remember here:

- Even if a system develops into a tropical cyclone over sub-26C SSTs, it will have difficulty generating and sustaining deep convection, and SSTs that cool will only allow a shallow tropical storm with minimal deep convection, similar to high-latitude storms like Laura of last year, to thrive.

- Ex-90L is still almost entirely cold-cored, as pointed out earlier by Levi. Though SSTs are warm, as long as its structure and core remain the way they are now, then tropical cyclogenesis will not occur.
Nice wind a'blowin in West Palm / Lake Worth. Some showers coming in. Recorded 1 3/4 inches of rain during this mornings robust thunderstorms.
Thank you Storm.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Nice wind a'blowin in West Palm / Lake Worth. Some showers coming in. Recorded 1 3/4 inches of rain during this mornings robust thunderstorms.


i got six inches today in lake worth
Quoting IMA:
{{{{{{{{{WU Buddies}}}}}}}} I sure miss y'all!!! I'll fill y'all in on what's going on with me very soon, and I'll be getting back to more regular visits. I was just in for a minute while waiting to head back in to San Antonio from the gun club & am logging off now. I hope to be back on tonight, though.

Careful Jeff..she belongs to a gun club!



590 there nothing to say after that post.
Howdy, just a differnt view. Lots goin on out there. Some Deep Purple poppin eh?

590...laughing hysterically!!!!! I'm going to totally leave that one alone.

Quoting melwerle:
590...laughing hysterically!!!!! I'm going to totally leave that one alone.



i don't get it
I have to be excused...gotta wipe the tears from my eyes i'm laughing so hard...

we have funny folks on here tonight...

:) thank God for humor.
590. Um I don't get it
Twinkster...Amount of rain doesn't matter. It varies in different locales.
596 that's what she said.
Quoting gordydunnot:
596 that what she said.


XD
Quoting DestinJeff:
at the risk of being banned, let me put it another way:

"i got six inches at my house today, and at my school"


>_>

<_<

I like where this is going.
Oh man you guys are so immature. He was only talking about the rain.

Anyways...I had quite the harrowing experiance this morning. I was walking my dog in NE dade when out of no where rain took me from behind. It was a quick and hard rain that reached its violent climax when I was just seconds away from home. I ran with my dog almost half a mile back home so when I got home I was wet and tired. Must have been a pop up storm.

btw whats up with the low?
Grow up...
hi guys, any know whats going on se of jamaica,looks asif something is brewing.
Oh man you guys are needlessly perverted.

Fix'd.

>_>
Quoting gordydunnot:
596 that's what she said.


ROFL....
Man..it took me 3 days just to get 5 inches!! =O
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
hi guys, any know whats going on se of jamaica,looks asif something is brewing.


I think that's just shower activity being enhanced by upper-level diffluence.
Quoting acCane08:
Man..it took me 3 days just to get 5 inches!! =O


*refrains from posting a Wikipedia link that would merit me a ban*
mmmmmmmm! really thats all? i have been watching it since 7:00am
apparently a 52 mph gust occured today in Virginia Key.
Well the models aren't forecasting the upper-level low to ever become aligned with the surface low, and there isn't enough time for that to happen anyway. I'm thinking that former Invest 90L has very little chance of amounting to any more than it currently is before it moves over land in 36-48 hours. That said, it will no longer be a fully cold-core system by that time, and hence will hopefully have earned all this attention lol.

Again this system brought its worst (strong gales and 2 feet of rain) to Florida while it was still extratropical, which is definitely something any true tropical storm would be very proud of. The irony of un-named systems continues...
Well...I actually got 5.04'' of rain in the past three days here at the house in Tampa. 6.62'' for the month =)
The Gom low is has some rather gusty winds associated with it.

Station 42001 - MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA



In the NWS update they were talking max of about 30 knts.
Quoting Levi32:
Well the models aren't forecasting the upper-level low to ever become aligned with the surface low, and there isn't enough time for that to happen anyway. I'm thinking that former Invest 90L has very little chance of amounting to any more than it currently is before it moves over land in 36-48 hours. That said, it will no longer be a fully cold-core system by that time, and hence will hopefully be worth all this attention lol.

Again this system brought its worst (strong gales and 2 feet of rain) to Florida, which is definitely something any true tropical storm would be very proud of. The irony of un-named systems continues...




Levi32 do you ues yahoo IM??
I've got an interesting statistic for you all....Tampa has now had 10 consecutive days with rainfall!! That's a record for the dry season (October-May)
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
mmmmmmmm! really thats all? i have been watching it since 7:00am


Yeah, I don't even think the TWD thinks much of it.
Hummm, do you all know how many folks are seeing what you are placing on this Blog?

Think about it!
Quoting Tazmanian:




Levi32 do you ues yahoo IM??


No I don't.


I g2g for driving lessons, later all.
Quoting Levi32:
Well the models aren't forecasting the upper-level low to ever become aligned with the surface low, and there isn't enough time for that to happen anyway. I'm thinking that former Invest 90L has very little chance of amounting to any more than it currently is before it moves over land in 36-48 hours. That said, it will no longer be a fully cold-core system by that time, and hence will hopefully have earned all this attention lol.

Again this system brought its worst (strong gales and 2 feet of rain) to Florida while it was still extratropical, which is definitely something any true tropical storm would be very proud of. The irony of un-named systems continues...


Ah, the legacy of unnamed subtropical systems. The very same thing happened with 90L (cool coincidence >_>)/Tropical Depression Ten in 2007; its legacy was left behind while it was still an invest, due to the tornadoes and heavy rains it produced over the Florida Peninsula prior to moving into the Gulf of Mexico.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
hi guys, any know whats going on se of jamaica,looks asif something is brewing.


NO i don't think so......Nothing organizing at all.....Shear is 50kts..nothing close to the surface at all....
Jamaca, the environment seems to be expanding

I've got an interesting statistic for you all....Tampa has now had 10 consecutive days with rainfall!! That's a record for the dry season (October-May)

And they could easily get 3-5 more consecutive days on top of that.
Hello everyone

was looking at the satellite and it doesnt look like the gulf thingy is there anymore but there are some deep colors in the carribean
thats proberly why its not coming to nothing , nothing survives a 50kt shear.
The activity just East of Jamaica is primarily due to the feature in the GOM. See excerpt from the TWD

" Caribbean Sea...
numerous showers and thunderstorms are affecting the north
central Caribbean N of 16n between 68w-77w...including portions
of Jamaica...Hispaniola...and Puerto Rico. This activity is
being supported by strong upper level diffluence in moist
southwesterly flow aloft between an upper level trough over the
W Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico...and an upper level ridge across
the E Caribbean and SW north Atlc."

This will hang around as long as the low lingers in the Gulf
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
thats proberly why its not coming to nothing , nothing survives a 50kt shear.


Except for subtropical and extratropical cyclones.
BBL Late tonight.....gonna watch the Lakers get their butts...beat.....LOL
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
hi guys, any know whats going on se of jamaica,looks asif something is brewing.

one thing I can tell you its going to be a rainy night here. The bog walk gorge is closed.
Wouldn't 50 knots of shear blow apart a run-of-the-mill tropical wave?
Quoting K8eCane:
Hello everyone

was looking at the satellite and it doesnt look like the gulf thingy is there anymore but there are some deep colors in the carribean


As Levi pointed out just a few minutes ago, its surface and upper-level circulations are displaced from each other, indicating that the system is not vertically stacked. Without this, anything beyond a weak subtropical cyclone seems unlikely.

Regardless of whether or not it becomes a named storm is irrelevant, since its impact will be the same either way.
Tampa is right, the clouds are flyin right now.
Link
Quoting KoritheMan:


Except for subtropical and extratropical cyclones.


Actually its even hard for anything Subtropical or Extratropical to develop in that kind of Shear....Later all!
thanks kmanislander have not check twdas yet i just poped onto see whats up.
Quoting kmanislander:
The activity just East of Jamaica is primarily due to the feature in the GOM. See excerpt from the TWD

" Caribbean Sea...
numerous showers and thunderstorms are affecting the north
central Caribbean N of 16n between 68w-77w...including portions
of Jamaica...Hispaniola...and Puerto Rico. This activity is
being supported by strong upper level diffluence in moist
southwesterly flow aloft between an upper level trough over the
W Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico...and an upper level ridge across
the E Caribbean and SW north Atlc."

This will hang around as long as the low lingers in the Gulf
We will be on the Barometer Bob show in just a few minutes!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Wouldn't 50 knots of shear blow apart a run-of-the-mill tropical wave?


It would destroy the upper portion of it, sure, but the surface reflection could still be present.
Quoting Portlight:
We will be on the Barometer Bob show in just a few minutes!


Awesome. I may check in. :)
639. kmanhurricaneman 1:03 AM GMT on May 22, 2009

I sure wish the low would pull up to the NW in the GOM and allow some of that rain to migrate W towards us. It has been bone dry here for months. All the rain seems to be East of George Town or along the NW end of the island
Thank you all for the clarifications.
Well this is sad.... We have some rain band come into the Mobile Area and the power goes out..... Heck if it raines in Oklahoma our power goes out here....

Taco is in the Dark :0)
I wish it would too my lawn is drying up dosent matter how much water i put on it somehow its not the same,
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
I wish it would too my lawn is drying up dosent matter how much water i put on it somehow its not the same,


Piped water has chlorine in it which plants and grass hate LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:


Actually its even hard for anything Subtropical or Extratropical to develop in that kind of Shear....Later all!


Ordinarily, I would say that, but think about it. High-latitude storms such as Epsilon and Zeta were able to thrive in an environment of extreme vertical shear.

STL (when he was still here) and I did some studying on why the aforementioned tropical cyclones, Epsilon in particular, were able to thrive in what seemed like a hostile upper wind environment, coupled with sub-24C SSTs.

Though the upper-level shear was beyond prohibitive for both of these storms, the mid-level shear was not. And because their convection, being high-latitude tropical cyclones, was very shallow, it did not extend too terribly high into the upper atmosphere, and thus the strong vertical shear didn't have as detrimental an effect as it otherwise would have.

At most, I would say that strong vertical shear, when battling subtropical and extratropical cyclones, will not allow deep convection to develop and extend high into the atmosphere, to where the upper shear affects it significantly. Or if it does allow deep convection to develop, it will be transient in nature.

Not official by any stretch of the imagination, but it's just my two cents.
It is pouring here like nothing and we are only on the edge of this mass of convection.
Oh geez this thing east of Jamaica is just not giving up!Winds shear went down a little tonight from 50 to 40.This is almost big as the low in the Gulf!
thanks kori

just meant it doesnt look like anything is there at all
My PWS

Quoting Ossqss:
Hummm, do you all know how many folks are seeing what you are placing on this Blog?

Think about it!


And how many are hitting the - or ! upon seeing it.
deleted post
@ 606 KoritheMan- ROFL!!! Ha Ha!

We've had a lot of rain here in Pinellas county
ran a dvorak loop what ever it is, it;s holding on for dear life and movig to the se possible being forced by that upper level shear.
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Oh geez this thing east of Jamaica is just not giving up!Winds shear went down a little tonight from 50 to 40.This is almost big as the low in the Gulf!


Trust me, it the upper level forcing helping to fuel this, along with surface tradewind convergence and daytime heating, much like the severe wx in mid-latitudes.
657

i am sure you're right but that aint what it LOOKS like
Weather..do you think the GOM disturbance will be classified as an invest or a depression?
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
ran a dvorak loop what ever it is, it;s holding on for dear life and movig to the se possible being forced by that upper level shear.



Dvorak imagery really for a developed cyclone
water in gom is still too cool to support any tropical systems it will remain a low for now.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
water in gom is still too cool to support any tropical systems it will remain a low for now.


Come on...no it is not. The criteria is 26C and right now we are seeing around 27C. Just because the cutoff is 26C also doesnt mean that it can not amount to anything if it is 25C. SST is not one thing that is driving this storm from going tropical. Yes if we saw 35C then of course it would help it big time but 27C is not hurting it.
We have been so focused on the GOM and Carib...are the models developing anything in the near future?
664. Weather456 1:32 AM GMT on May 22, 2009

Lots of lift in that environment.
Quoting Weather456:


Trust me, it the upper level forcing helping to fuel this, along with surface tradewind convergence and daytime heating, much like the severe wx in mid-latitudes.


456, does this stand a chance of escaping and becoming its own entitiy in the future if it persists?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Weather..do you think the GOM disturbance will be classified as an invest or a depression?


I give it a chance, but a low chance.
I'm out for tonight.

Will catch up tomorrow

G'nite all
Getting more rain tonight than this afternoon!
Quoting Ossqss:


456, does this stand a chance of escaping and becoming its own entitiy in the future if it persists?

I dont think so. I think it is just a convergence zone and as soon as the low to the north pulls away into the Gulf Coast, you lose your convergence zone. There does not seem to be a low associated with it so it will just disappear
Yea I agree with you...this looks something more trying to develop obviously and I am amazed this is not being teared apart yet after two days so I got to admit this has to be somethin to wtach in the next few days of shear continues to drop.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

I dont think so. I think it is just a convergence zone and as soon as the low to the north pulls away into the Gulf Coast, you lose your convergence zone. There does not seem to be a low associated with it so it will just disappear


Understood, I just keep looking at the environment it is creating on its own. It now is the largest item of interest on the Sat map.
Although if it did develop it would only be at the most a weak tropical storm maybe because of the cool waters.
Hello,
Good Evening, how are those tropics doing?
do you think dr m blog needs a???


Link
Quoting Ossqss:


Understood, I just keep looking at the environment it is creating on its own. It now is the largest item of interest on the Sat map.

It is impressive but look at what is around it. You winds are basically 90 degrees to the boundry on both sides forming a massive convergence zone, similar to a stationary front. I just think as the GOM low pulls away you will see this event start to weaken and just fizzle away. It is not going to go anywhere.
Don't panic!It's just the largest thing here showing up on the map.It's nothing to worry about.(sarcasm).
Do we expect anything different from this tomorrow? Will the environment it's dealing with now be that much different tomorrow?
Quoting Ossqss:


456, does this stand a chance of escaping and becoming its own entitiy in the future if it persists?


If the thunderstorms persist, then low pressure will evnetually form as they create a buoyant atmosphere. This low pressure may take the form of a surface trough, typical. But with the upper level enviroment (not wind shear) expected to relax, I doubt much will result.


Exapnd on GOM Low - it has its window of opportunity to do what it wants but appears to have trouble developing convection due to dry air. The SSTs along the trajectory are progressively cooler once it passess the central GOM.
I have been wondering about this mass of showers and thunderstorms near Jamaica, can someone please explain, thank you.
PortLight sounds good tonight....

WTG Guys
Definitely warming up.

It looks like it will just be a cloudy windy weekend in southern Mississippi with pockets of 2-4 inches of precip. It has been relativly cool here ever since that front went through last weekend.
Also why is there no westward progression?
Stormchaser thats a nice loop if i have not seen the rest of the posting for the last few days I would bet on the system by Jamaica being a lot more tropical than what ever that is in the gulf. I think the system heads out to the ene hopefully not causing to much trouble to Porto Rico .
688. SRQfl
Quoting Tazmanian:
do you think dr m blog needs a???


Link

Yes, perhaps even no peanut gallery at all, and then this page will load quicker and I can get the only opinion worth anything...
Quoting gordydunnot:
Stormchaser thats a nice loop if i have not seen the rest of the posting for the last few days I would bet on the system by Jamaica being a lot more tropical than what ever that is in the gulf. I think the system heads out to the ene hopefully not causing to much trouble to Porto Rico .


The area of convection should die out tomorrow as the Gulf low pulls away. There is a relatively hostile environment in the Caribbean so that area of convection really has no chance as of now.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


The area of convection should die out tomorrow as the Gulf low pulls away. There is a relatively hostile environment in the Caribbean so that area of convection really has no chance as of now.




Hostile is saying it mildly.
691. JRRP
Quoting keywestbrat:

brilliant, nice to meet you, are you a local?

i am dominican
Storm, what if it doesnt die out as the ULL in the GOM pulls away...could we be looking at 91L in the next few days?
i believe you all have it wrong lets wait till am and see i'll bet this blob is still there possible taking better shape jmo
There is no way. There is nothing there to support it once the low moves away. You just have a strong convergence zone that when things start to get spaced out, it will die off. Plus there is not even a low there as of now so no reason to get all excited about it.
I will certainly differ to your opinion thanks for the response Stormchaser. Goodnight everyone.
Quoting canehunter09:
Storm, what if it doesnt die out as the ULL in the GOM pulls away...could we be looking at 91L in the next few days?


Well as 456 mentioned,if the convection persisted it would cause a surface trough to form and then it would be possible for an invest to be labeled but thats highly unlikely (<20%). Although we should keep an eye on it for PR and Hispaniola's sake.
Quoting gordydunnot:
I will certainly differ to your opinion thanks for the response Stormchaser. Goodnight everyone.


Goodnight!
Stormjunkie did an outstanding job on Barometer Bob...and there wa a nice WU contingent in the chat....


www.portlight.org

Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
i believe you all have it wrong lets wait till am and see i'll bet this blob is still there possible taking better shape jmo


What's your reasoning behind this statement?
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
i believe you all have it wrong lets wait till am and see i'll bet this blob is still there possible taking better shape jmo

The local mets say it will stick around and bring wet weather to the Caribbean
Upper level divergence:



Lower level convergence:
702. JRRP
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Whats your reasoning behind this statement?


Reasoning? when has reasoning been a requirement in this blog :)
Well you never know dude cause the shear is dying down a bit.
Blog Update

AOI #1

AOI #2



Ha good one 703.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Reasoning? when has reasoning been a requirement in this blog :)


LOL...Very valid point.
It will last a day or two because the GOM low isnt moving anywhere fast. It will take about 36-48 hours for it to push out and take off over land. Then you will just watch everything calm down for a few days. Hopefully not too long because I need something interesting to track.
Quoting presslord:
Stormjunkie did an outstanding job on Barometer Bob...and there wa a nice WU contingent in the chat....


www.portlight.org



Yup, he did! Was that ketchup in the corner of his mouth? ;P
So it seems like we have a somewhat of an agreement...GOM will not develop....Carib. blob will not develop...The models are showing nothing for the rest of May...Seems like the season will start, historically, on June 1. No pre-season named storms.
At what point does something outgrow what is around it?
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Well you never know dude cause the shear is dying down a bit.


Well looks like its near neutral. Not dropping nor rising.

so my mate just asked me, what do I think of the low, I said we don't need to go get beer, shutters, not yet, gas in the car? we have enough, but gumboots, brolly, insect repellent, yes
LOL thanks pat i think i can see my house :P
Looks familiar, doesn't it?
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Well looks like it near neutral. Not dropping nor rising.


that might not be the case tommorow. You never know
Well im out for tonight. I have some work to finish. Goodnight everyone.
True that
Pat -

Noticed how quickly the clouds have been moving this evening?
F1, is that cowboy beeboop? lol
Been watching them all evening and Day here.

Spookie. eh..?

Its a Big circulation .

Night all, this other thing seems to keep stretching farther........

Go Pens !

Can't hardly miss them from the 16th at One Shell Square...

Any news on watches or warnings? I could'a swore I saw a small funnel cloud about an hour ago up here around Mandeville...
just wondering when we might see the big yellow thing in the sky again in central west coast of FL. It teased us a little today. But checked the forcast and don't see it in the five day forcast.
by the way the low overe the gulf is a ULL that why the wind shear is high
The low in the Central Atlantic looks better than the GOM low!
728. JRRP
Quoting Patrap:
Been watching them all evening and Day here.

Spookie. eh..?

Its a Big circulation .



the circulation it`s very wide
it does it more difficult to develop
Time for the late night time shift to come on.
Quoting sarasotaman:
The Spirit of the Lord says, stand in awe as I reveal in the next few months how I will bring peace in the elements, where there will be a time of a peaceful summer, where the hurricanes will not rage, where the tornadoes will not have control of the atmosphere and of the cities. There will be a wind that shall blow upon the mid section of America and God said, you in Ohio will feel this wind. It is an unusual wind that I will bring. This shall not be a destructive wind. But they shall, "something came in and it has settled down." It will settle as a protection over the people of Most High God.
from Kim Clement


Is God going to spare America, yet toy around with other parts of the world?
Wow - late nite internet...
Hi everyone. Looks like the northestern carib including PR may get soaked tomorrow...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1008 PM AST THU MAY 21 2009

.UPDATE...DOPPLER RADAR LOOPS OUT OF PR AND PUNTA CANA APPEAR TO
SHOW A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NEARLY STATIONARY JUST
SOUTHWEST OF SAONA ISLAND AND LA ROMANA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPPER DIFLUENCE ALOFT AS SEEN
ON SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. IR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -76C.
SOME CONCERN EXISTS THAT THIS MID-LVL DISTURBANCE MAY APPROACH PR
TOMORROW WHICH COULD RESULT IN SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS.
MODEL
DATA SPECIFICALLY THE GFS IS HANDLING THIS WX SCENARIO QUITE WELL
AND SHOWS THIS DISTURBANCE PROPAGATING EAST NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND MOVING IT ACROSS PR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. IF THIS
DISTURBANCE CAN HOLD TOGETHER FOR ANOTHER 24 HRS SOME SERIOUS
FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY EVOLVE TOMORROW. AM GOING TO HOLD ON A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ATTM AWAITING NEW MODEL DATA AND TRENDS IN SATELLITE
AND RADAR IMAGERY.
Good evening weatherwunderfolk,
I will venture to say that we east central floridians are finally out of the water... Link
i know that its maybe just a convergence zone but the thunderstorm complex is pretty impressive to me...
Quoting canehunter09:
i know that its maybe just a convergence zone but the thunderstorm complex is pretty impressive to me...

graphic?
i'm with ya canehunter
i think somethings brewin down there....
739. SRQfl
Quoting KoritheMan:


Is God going to spare America, yet toy around with other parts of the world?

LMAO
Quoting sarasotaman:
The Spirit of the Lord says, stand in awe as I reveal in the next few months how I will bring peace in the elements, where there will be a time of a peaceful summer, where the hurricanes will not rage, where the tornadoes will not have control of the atmosphere and of the cities. There will be a wind that shall blow upon the mid section of America and God said, you in Ohio will feel this wind. It is an unusual wind that I will bring. This shall not be a destructive wind. But they shall, "something came in and it has settled down." It will settle as a protection over the people of Most High God.
from Kim Clement


CooCoo for coco puffs?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
So it seems like we have a somewhat of an agreement...GOM will not develop....Carib. blob will not develop...The models are showing nothing for the rest of May...Seems like the season will start, historically, on June 1. No pre-season named storms.


Finally... I said that a week ago and had people all up in arms...
i have been watching it for the past 24 hours when everyone else is watching the GOM and it has been pretty consistent, i think the caribbean complex is more of a threat them the ULL in the GOM..but thats just me lol
i know that its maybe just a convergence zone but the thunderstorm complex is pretty impressive to me...

graphic?


here is what he is refering too
Evening all...

The Sat Pics, the maps all show that the FL Panhandle is going to be wet... for the Memorial Weekend.
*Shucks*
Why can't the blobs wait until June? We gave them a designated time slot on the calendar.... *tsk, tsk* and we get nasty low pressure systems when we are in desire so SUNSHINE!

Nasty Low Press. gonna wash out our weekend. I've tried to *wishcast* while looking at maps, but not matter what, I see clouds & wet. : (
Don't know what the philosophy is behind a 100% forecast for heavy thunderstorms and then barely a drop of rain today, maybe a light mist for a couple of hours. Now it's 70% forecast of heavy rain over night and tomorrow. I don't get it. This may be traffic control but it's not weather forecasting.
Quoting MrMarcus:


Finally... I said that a week ago and had people all up in arms...

We just had a pretty significant weather event in East Central Florida. Somebody reliable said 24 inches of rain in the past 3 days. We reportedly had 16 inches where I am, with winds. It's been the damndest nontropical experience I've ever seen.
thanks KOTG
Here's one of my posts from earlier on the Jamaican blob of t-storms......didn't feel like writing again so I copied/pasted ;)

Out till later.

-----------------------------------------------
Guys take a look at this map very very closely. Paste image url into your browser if you want to see it full-size:



Now look right where the big glob is that you're all talking about. I want you to see how to the left of the blob the wind barbs are aiming towards the NE. Now look to the right of the blob. The wind barbs point towards the east or ESE.

So what's happening is the upper-level air-flow is splitting in that area due to the ULL in the gulf of Mexico, causing two separate air streams to separate and pull away from each other. This is called diffluence. So think about it, air is getting transported away from that area, so new air needs to replace it. The only place that that air can come from is below (remember this is taking place in the upper atmosphere). This causes a bunch of air to rise from the surface, and we all know that when air rises it condensates, forms clouds, and when strong enough, thunderstorms. That is all that this is, it is baroclinic process not tropical process. There is no threat of development from this area of thunderstorms.
744 - great - just what I want - a rainy drive back to Niceville followed by a rainy 3 day weekend by the pool. Maybe we can follow that up with a rainy drive back to NOLA Monday evening?

All kidding aside - we've had some rain over the last couple of weeks, but a few more inches right now wouldn't do us any harm going into the traditional dry season...
Thanks for the mini-lesson in cyclogenesis Levi. I will follow your fine example and see what the morning brings. Goodnight!
Quoting SRQfl:

LMAO


CooCoo for coco puffs?

LOL
I've seen enough of the big yellow thing over the last few months here central Florida to last a lifetime. Anymore rain on the way tonight, or over the next few days?
753. JRRP
Quoting canehunter09:
i have been watching it for the past 24 hours when everyone else is watching the GOM and it has been pretty consistent, i think the caribbean complex is more of a threat them the ULL in the GOM..but thats just me lol

me too... but i don`t give a chance to develop
Quoting Levi32:
-----------------------------------------------
Guys take a look at this map very very closely. Paste image url into your browser if you want to see it full-size:


A suggestion for when you post an image. after you have inserted the image... highlight the Code it posted in the message..and link it again to the same image. Then if anyone clicks on it.. it expands automatically in another window.

Example



You can also do the same thing to link it to your blog or anything else.

Example 2



Quoting KoritheMan:


Is God going to spare America, yet toy around with other parts of the world?


I don't think God gives a rats butt about America...

I'll let George Carlin say the rest...
Link
Quoting SevereHurricane:


I don't think God gives a rats butt about America...

I'll let George Carlin say the rest...
Link


ROFLMAO... I love that video :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO... I love that video :)


LOL,
George Carlin was the best...

Quoting SevereHurricane:


I don't think God gives a rats butt about America...

I'll let George Carlin say the rest...
Link


Lmao , never get tired of that video.
Ok, gang! Do we have a NOLA CAT 5 in the GOM yet? ;)
Popping in to check on things tonight. How's it going gang?
Good DL, you?
Doing as good as can be expected. I can sympathize with Florida. We had our own flooding event here. My 4 year old flooded the basement. (can you say super fun?) Met with the contractor tonight to see how much damage he did to my wallet.
Your looking at a couple grand there. wish you luck on that.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Ok, gang! Do we have a NOLA CAT 5 in the GOM yet? ;)
hang on i'll go check the flush model be right back
how much rain do yall think i will receive in New Orleans?
4 rooms of carpet, plus repair of one whole wall, my deck settled, split and ripped off the back of my house which buckled and shattered my back door. The total will be double that. At least it didn't ruin the equipment in our theater room.
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
4 rooms of carpet, plus repair of one whole wall, my deck settled, split and ripped off the back of my house which buckled and shattered my back door. The total will be double that. At least it didn't ruin the equipment in our theater room.


Ouch , that is a lot. But at least your entertainment room is fine.
Anyhooo, I'm destressing by watching the blog and checking the models. The vortex team hasn't seen any tornados but they had sausage and eggs for breakfast :o)
....
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
4 rooms of carpet, plus repair of one whole wall, my deck settled, split and ripped off the back of my house which buckled and shattered my back door. The total will be double that. At least it didn't ruin the equipment in our theater room.


Come on now! He too was just doing some remodeling......Nothing like an indoor swimming pool....Heck you had one and didn't realize it......LOL
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
4 rooms of carpet, plus repair of one whole wall, my deck settled, split and ripped off the back of my house which buckled and shattered my back door. The total will be double that. At least it didn't ruin the equipment in our theater room.


I'm an insurance adjuster and I strongley recommend you to contact your insuarance carrier and file a claim. It sound like a considerable amount of water damage and possible structrual damage.
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
4 rooms of carpet, plus repair of one whole wall, my deck settled, split and ripped off the back of my house which buckled and shattered my back door. The total will be double that. At least it didn't ruin the equipment in our theater room.

Yikes! Shoulda bought that youngin' a kiddie pool from Wal-Marts - 19.95! ;) Or run him 'round the yard with garden hose turned on! Good luck with the repairs - at least twasn't playin' with matches! So, smile! :)
you think its trying to build thunder storms around the center?
Link
lol heres the link idk how you put in directly into the blog lol
TS, my youngest is just super busy. I think his tab is in the neighborhood of $8,000 and he's only 4!

RENONV, we did file a claim, but it won't cover any of the deck or door damage.
MLC, the damage was because he was running around with the hose. The hose was set by my A/C units and a window well and then got left on for 14 hours. This is what happens when I let my husband watch the kids :o)
What do you guys think of the NOAA hurricane forecast released today?
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
MLC, the damage was because he was running around with the hose. The hose was set by my A/C units and a window well and then got left on for 14 hours. This is what happens when I let my husband watch the kids :o)

Aaah, heck, just shoot that husband of yours! ;)
lol how do you insert a radar loop into the blog?
780. GBlet
I love all 6 of my kids but, I am so glad that the little germbags are now grown and breaking their own stuff. I don't miss baby bunnies in the linen closet, flooded laundry rooms or the mountain of dirty clothes.
Ok, no review of posts, where the you know what is this low? Trace of rain on the Emerald Coast, Fizzle, Fizzle, Fizzle! Somebody fill me in with the short version, I have Golf to play tomorrow!
Catastrophic after reading this I dont want to know how you got your name, but I wish you the best of luck. Dont take your insurance agent for his word unless he is your husband.
GBlet, I have 7. Tell me about the laundry. If I don't do 4 loads a day I'd never get caught up.

Thus far I haven't be surprised by anything the GOM low is doing. Does it have any tricks up its swirl?
Has anyone noticed that the GFS takes the gulf low inland as far as the arkansas area before it moves it back east (Slowly) to off the south carolina coast?
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
GBlet, I have 7. Tell me about the laundry. If I don't do 4 loads a day I'd never get caught up.

Thus far I haven't be surprised by anything the GOM low is doing. Does it have any tricks up its swirl?


7? Damn, I thought Mom did good raising the 4 of us! U R 1 Hell of a Woman and don't let any body (man) tell you different!
HurricaneKing, I did notice that. If it can retain some moisture, lots of areas will should get rain.

We'll I'm off. It has been a long day. Take care everyone! See you tomorrow :o)
Quoting HurricaneKing:
Has anyone noticed that the GFS takes the gulf low inland as far as the arkansas area before it moves it back east (Slowly) to off the south carolina coast?


Who cares as long as it leaves Florida!!!
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
HurricaneKing, I did notice that. If it can retain some moisture, lots of areas will should get rain.

We'll I'm off. It has been a long day. Take care everyone! See you tomorrow :o)


We need rain in eastern NC. We've had rain lately but it came hard and fast and now everything is dry again. We need a couple days of steady rain.
Quoting 69Viking:


Who cares as long as it leaves Florida!!!


Well it might bring more rain to Florida on it's trip back across the southeast.
Adios CatastrophicDL, see u in the morning!
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Well it might bring more rain to Florida on it's trip back across the southeast.


Then I'm shooting the ........
Ok, 3 refreshes, you girls type slow!
Quoting 69Viking:
Ok, 3 refreshes, you girls type slow!


Girls? UMMMM I'm a KING not QUEEN.
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Girls? UMMMM I'm a KING not QUEEN.


I guess that explains why you type sooooo slow!
Goodnight all, maybe by then it will be raining in the Panhandle but I'm not holding my breath!
So, which shutters work best in the storm? Heres a cool vid

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVONpzW4guI
Quoting 69Viking:


I guess that explains why you type sooooo slow!


Haha Funny. (Sarcasam). I was actually computer model surfing.
First squalls moving into NW Florida now...well, if you can call them 'squalls'.
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Girls? UMMMM I'm a KING not QUEEN.


Wait...
I didn't know Big Foot was a king?
I saw roll down shutters during Charley that where something had hit and punctured the shutter all the way into the house. Crazy stuff.
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Wait...
I didn't know Big Foot was a king?


Yep he rules all the animals and when the humans kill themselves off will become the ruler of the world.

Wow It's late and I'm talking crazy.

Ummmm Gotta talk weather so I don't get banned.
The little gulf low will probably be around for another week at least.

Goodnight all.
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Yep he rules all the animals and when the humans kill themselves off will become the ruler of the world.

Wow It's late and I'm talking crazy.

Ummmm Gotta talk weather so I don't get banned.
The little gulf low will probably be around for another week at least.

Goodnight all.


lol

Goodnight.
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
GBlet, I have 7. Tell me about the laundry. If I don't do 4 loads a day I'd never get caught up.

Thus far I haven't be surprised by anything the GOM low is doing. Does it have any tricks up its swirl?
I just completed a Tropical Update if anyone would like to view.....

TampaSpins Link
India Meteorological Department

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 22MAY)
===========================================
Convective clouds are seen over Andaman Sea, south Bay of Bengal, and parts of southeast Arabian Sea

MONSOON WATCH
===================
Conditions are favourable for onset of monsoon over Kerala and further advance over some parts of south Arabian Sea, some more parts of south Bay of Bengal and some parts of central Bay of Bengal during next 2-3 days.

Chief Meteorologist Forecast Outlook (0000z 22MAY)
==================================================
A low pressure area has formed over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal. It is likely to become more marked.
Doesn't look so good for the space shuttle today. 10:01 AM landing time, doubt it though.
Just woke up...anything new with the GOM low? I figured if I woke up and it was not an invest, it will never be an invest because it is suppose to approach land by tomorrow.
India Meteorological Department

Morning%u2019s low pressure area over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal now lies over east central Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood. Current meteorological analysis and numerical weather prediction models indicate the system is likely to concentrate into a depression during next 48 hours.

revised Tropical Cyclone Outlook

A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL.CURRENT INTENSITY IS T1.0 RPT T1.0.

IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A DEPRESSION
812. MahFL
Someone call Mayor Nagan ! Cat 5 in the GOM !.

There I said it.........:).
Quoting MahFL:
Someone call Mayor Nagan ! Cat 5 in the GOM !.

There I said it.........:).


just gonna throw it out there.....well if you had went threw it, you wouldn't be joking about it


hey here's a funny......Cat 6.....goes to Fl where Mah lives
814. IKE
I've got cloudy skies...69 degrees.

70% chance of rain today and tomorrow. 60% on Sunday. 50% on Memorial Day.
hush up, ya'll. NorthEast Florida hasn't seen a real cane since Dora of '64.
816. MahFL
Gulfcoastdweller, lighten up !.
My father in law lost his house, and a bunch of nice material things, in Katrina.....but the main thing is he was not killed.
Quoting IKE:
I've got cloudy skies...69 degrees.

70% chance of rain today and tomorrow. 60% on Sunday. 50% on Memorial Day.


we are at 73 degrees, cloudy with radar showing small shower a little east of me in Jackson County
today 60% chance of rain
Sat 70% chance of rain w/ rainfall up to an inch
Miserable, cold and wet here.

Next week's looking up, though... a solid week of heat apparently. Highs up to 83. Be nice if that does happen. Not holding my breath though...
Quoting KoritheMan:
Oh man you guys are needlessly perverted.

Fix'd.

>_>

OK? and why?
looking alittle better from my look cyber there are breaks in the clouds a couple more hrs it might be even better for a return trip. good luck to those returning to earth. what about that persistant blob near haiti? happy weather
Quoting MahFL:
Gulfcoastdweller, lighten up !.
My father in law lost his house, and a bunch of nice material things, in Katrina.....but the main thing is he was not killed.


I;m glad to hear he was not killed and I hope he was able to rebuild and get on with his life

no harm no foul Mah!!
Persistent bugger in the Carib.

Good morning. It's baaack!

I thought the rain was RIP yesterday but evidently, it's still hanging around. Over 400 structures in Daytona with water damage and they haven't finishing counting.
first attempt shuttle at 10am cancel will try 1130am est.
825. IKE
Quoting Ossqss:
Persistent bugger in the Carib.



man if that keeps up we may see surface circulation develop
From the NHC discussion this AM.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 76W...
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 75W...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS INTENSIFYING
ON TOP OF FLORIDA 24 HOURS AGO HAS EXTENDED ITS COVERAGE
SOUTHWARD FROM FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ORDER
TO COVER ALL OF FLORIDA SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ALL THE WAY TO PANAMA ALONG 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 30N BETWEEN 74W AND 88W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 75W.



THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CREATED DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE AREA TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND
MOVING INTO THE MONA PASSAGE. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...
WHICH JUST MEANS A BIG AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HAS FORMED IN THE AREA OF THE DIFFLUENT WIND
FLOW...WITH PRECIPITATION FROM 14N TO THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF
HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 70W AND 73W.
PRECIPITATION MUST BE REACHING THE SOUTHERN SHORELINES OF HAITI
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MAJOR FLOODING HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN SECTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA WITH AT LEAST FOUR DEATHS REPORTED IN HAITI DURING
THE LAST FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS.


Link
Morning All - waves or no waves that is the question for me this AM... Got an hour window for some surf... but it looks like I got a band of storms conflicting with my hearts desire.

71 degrees, overcast, humidity 93% LOL, 29.87 -- breeze, barely
In just two days...I went from a desert to a rain forest..serious rainforest

Looks like possibly thigh high waves out in the Gulf - also some nasty squalling running up the coat... bit dicy
Quoting leftovers:
looking alittle better from my look cyber there are breaks in the clouds a couple more hrs it might be even better for a return trip. good luck to those returning to earth. what about that persistant blob near haiti? happy weather

I wonder why its moving south east or is it the shear
Chicklet -- 400 !!! Tremendous amount of rain.... I'm wondering how the LAKE is doing????
BTW --GREAT to see you!!!
Good Morning...
Ossqss - howz it in your neighborhood.... I think the pastures at the polo club are going to get spongy real soon......... you often get more rain on your side of I75 then I do closer to the beach.....
Quoting surfmom:
Ossqss - howz it in your neighborhood.... I think the pastures at the polo club are going to get spongy real soon......... you often get more rain on your side of I75 then I do closer to the beach.....


We seem to have missed a bunch of the heavy stuff unfortunately. The lake came up about 2" and we need more than 2' to get close to normal. They have been getting hammered just east of us in the area of the polo grounds. Make it a great day, off to advanced logical security training today. Fun stuff, snore xx
morning surfmom, back for another season...haver had chest high waves past 2 days...hope you get a swell...
Thanks Oss!!! gives me an idea as to what I'm going to walk into today.... note to self...mudboots... do not wash dog till after work...
Hey Nole -- weird pulse.. yesterday flat till 8:30, then divine, but small 8:30 to 10:30 -south facing beaches and only certain ones ???
My spot was Okay w/a fish. then flat... got to get kid to school and then I've got an hour to snitch something. Radar is showing rain... but it's more like drops & misty stuff here..no Thunder --so I'm going to make a run for it.
same here...get it while we can cause the flat days are a comin....but this might be a pre-curser for the season...
Keep an eye to the sky Surfmom, L8R


Quoting Nolehead:
same here...get it while we can cause the flat days are a comin....but this might be a pre-curser for the season...


NERVOUS LOL....... Yes, always a MIXED blessing.
MUCHO GRACIS NEIGHBOR - that's explains what I'm seeing out the window .... hummmm timing, timing, timing.... and caution is the better side of valor....LOL

Just do not like to be near the water when/if there's a potential for heavenly bolts of light...

I have a closet full of naughts and do not want to be target practice LOL
if i was young again and a surfer i sure would not live in florida its pretty much flat all yr. you only live once might as well live where there are waves.
COC...
Enough rain here in Jax! I've got crayfish sprouting out of my front lawn. CRAYFISH!
842. leftovers 12:02 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
if i was young again and a surfer i sure would not live in florida its pretty much flat all yr. you only live once might as well


well we aren't lucky enough to have a great reef or an ocean, cause we are gulf coast surfers so we get what we can get....but it gets better than you think some times...but if you can surf our junk you can surf anywhere!!
Quoting leftovers:
if i was young again and a surfer i sure would not live in florida its pretty much flat all yr. you only live once might as well live where there are waves.


True, True.... I'm a late bloomer...started at 49yrs -can't complain too much.... I get enough to keep me happy...I'd have more opportunity if I didn't have to work, and be a mom, wife, cook, grocery mule.......chauffeur... but I DO DREAM of having a warm water abode with a wave machine everyday when I walked out the front door!!!
847. IKE
No shuttle landing today due to bad weather in Florida.

per CNN.
848. MahFL
They have been bumming around on the Shuttle for 1 and a half days now. Now they get another day of Earth gazing from space, nice work if you can get it !
I assume the will try for Edwards tomorrow, as I can't see central FL being cloud/rain free any time soon.
Quoting surfmom:


True, True.... I'm a late bloomer...started at 49yrs -can't complain too much.... I get enough to keep me happy...I'd have more opportunity if I didn't have to work, and be a mom, wife, cook, grocery mule.......chauffeur... but I DO DREAM of having a warm water abode with a wave machine everyday when I walked out the front door!!!


Hey Surfie:)
Quoting surfmom:
Morning All - waves or no waves that is the question for me this AM... Got an hour window for some surf... but it looks like I got a band of storms conflicting with my hearts desire.

71 degrees, overcast, humidity 93% LOL, 29.87 -- breeze, barely
In just two days...I went from a desert to a rain forest..serious rainforest

Looks like possibly thigh high waves out in the Gulf - also some nasty squalling running up the coat... bit dicy


SURFMOM, I am crossing my fingers and not checking until 9 as the swell did not show yesterday til 830 so it wll definitley be smaller but there has to be some waves, I will be on my Long Board in case they are small...
851. MahFL
Gulfcoastdweller, he and his wife eventually bought a house about 6 blocks further back from the beach, he lives in Longbeach, MS. Where he did have a house was not in a flood zone, but Katrina sent a 25+ ft storm surge there....
He also was NOT originally going to evacuate as he is a stubborn old so and so.
Quoting Nolehead:
842. leftovers 12:02 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
if i was young again and a surfer i sure would not live in florida its pretty much flat all yr. you only live once might as well


well we aren't lucky enough to have a great reef or an ocean, cause we are gulf coast surfers so we get what we can get....but it gets better than you think some times...but if you can surf our junk you can surf anywhere!!


THIS IS SOOOOOOOOOOO TRUE!!! Just look at Corey Lopez, Shea .... and many others that have grown up on this Gulf. The Style, Grace, technique of these guys -- takes my breath away.

This low made waves that look like this:


and I really had a good time on them...nothing epic...but no fearing for my life either.....
surfmom, that looks exactly what we have had for teh past 2 days ne/e winds slight offshore and perfect....just ride and ride...today has more bumps in it cause of the onshore, but hey i'll take it all day long!!!
Good Morning Cot., We've got some weather here....but at least the threat of fires has been reduced.....
Quoting surfmom:
Good Morning Cot., We've got some weather here....but at least the threat of fires has been reduced.....


And any drought conditions should be alleviated somewhat, one imagines?
well, time for a morning session...talk to all of you later on...surfmom hope you get some fun stuff....
THIS IS SOOOOOOOOOOO TRUE!!! Just look at Corey Lopez, Shea .... and many others that have grown up on this Gulf. The Style, Grace, technique of these guys -- takes my breath away.

oh and by the way...Kelly Slater..who only is the best surfer ever came from Cocoa Bch...so there is something to be said about Fl surf...just an FYI!!
Quoting Nolehead:
842. leftovers 12:02 PM GMT on May 22, 2009
if i was young again and a surfer i sure would not live in florida its pretty much flat all yr. you only live once might as well


well we aren't lucky enough to have a great reef or an ocean, cause we are gulf coast surfers so we get what we can get....but it gets better than you think some times...but if you can surf our junk you can surf anywhere!!
ROFLMAO
What a dreamer.
So, your experience gained from GOMEX mush qualifies you for a good day at Waimea Bay, the Pipeline or the Mavericks?
Hi SurfMom, yup have had a bit a rain up here this week and it's still coming down. Have shoveled a berm at the end of my driveway for two days, each day a bigger better berm only to have it wash away from the water running downhill. (My cable wire was exposed there due to the installers not digging a deep enough trench!) Oh well, that's it for my damage. Those poor folks in Daytona and Holly Hill are in a real mess with their houses under water and vehicles driving by, kicking up wakes...one lady was out there throwing eggs at them for not slowing down. It's sad.
860. CeBas
What is that area south of Hispanola?
ROFLMAO
What a dreamer.
So, your experience gained from GOMEX mush qualifies you for a good day at Waimea Bay, the Pipeline or the Mavericks?
Action: Quote | Ignore User


LOL, i wish...no if you ever have surfed any of our crap..(which alot of times it is) then go to the east coast or costa...then you realize what real waves are and you just tear them up cause your are so use to riding crap...hell i wish it got that big, surfmom might not but i sure do...LOL

i'm out...everyone be safe today!!!
Blog Update

AOI #1

AOI #2



Quoting theshepherd:
ROFLMAO
What a dreamer.
So, your experience gained from GOMEX mush qualifies you for a good day at Waimea Bay, the Pipeline or the Mavericks?


Where have you been hiding... KEH wants her stir stick back.. washed even
864. CeBas
No doubt this one will get tagged 91L sometime tomorrow morning. After all they tagged 90L and it's looked horrible. Shear will relax and this thing should get named before landfall

I agree
hey ORCA that blob is still holding it's own eh!, wonder whats gonna be the outcome any ides?
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
hey ORCA that blob is still holding it's own eh!, wonder whats gonna be the outcome any ides?


I honestly thought after looking at the shear maps yesterday.. that it wouldn't be there this morning... so its already starting out as a strange year.

Quoting theshepherd:
ROFLMAO
What a dreamer.
So, your experience gained from GOMEX mush qualifies you for a good day at Waimea Bay, the Pipeline or the Mavericks?


You just pushed my button --better give the stick back to KEH..ahemmmmmmmmmm Cory, Shea, Slater -- they surf Waimea & the Pipeline and THEY WIN DUDE...... Mavericks is for the Giant Wave dudes and grace/style is not what they're about.

BTW --- It's sooo good to see you, I was worried you were swamped in the Glades or got your fishing lines tangled w/a Tarpon and went for a ride to Trin.
Morning all... 73F with a shower here in the Fort Myers area. Looks like things might be clearing up a bit for us later on this afternoon.
I updated my Blog this morning if anyone would like to view......thanks!

TampaSpins Link
870. CeBas
Looked at buoy just se of Jamaica bp at 29.78 and falling all buoy in area also falling.

WOW!!!
Quoting TampaSpin:
I updated my Blog this morning if anyone would like to view......thanks!

TampaSpins Link


I thought this was your Blog?

Good Morning.
Interesting features in the Caribbean and Gulf.
Deaths already reported in Dom.Rep and Haiti from heavy rains. This is very early in the season for them to be experiencing heavy rain.

Looking at the Trop. Atl., very little SAL anywhere, and mid level moisture is quite high. The ITCZ seems to have gone to sleep though.
66*F with 98% heavy air this morning in Macon, Georgia. Little upper bands of rain from this thing come in over Savannah, then roll up I-16 right into Macon. No thunder boomers, just nice steady rain.
Egg throwing..... I kinda like that idea....

Watch out Shep...ROTFL

Well, Neptune's calling I'm out --I good as long as there's no T-storms
Quoting RTLSNK:
66*F with 98% heavy air this morning in Macon, Georgia. Little upper bands of rain from this thing come in over Savannah, then roll up I-16 right into Macon. No thunder boomers, just nice steady rain.


Morning Snake.. good to see your staying out of the Area of Interests for a couple days.. maybe SB's flowers will stay in the ground now.
Quoting surfmom:
Egg throwing..... I kinda like that idea....

Watch out Shep...ROTFL

Well, Neptune's calling I'm out --I good as long as there's no T-storms

Have a good one SF, don't tell the girls what your planning for their eggs.
POTTERY/SNAKE Good AM!!! - saw the mess by Haiti... this poor country...... and it's people...so much suffering to begin with.... now flooding again....... I may get that island it's own prayer candle this year.....
Ok - I'm OUT
The local rag (Wilmington Star News) had an article on beaches this morning:
SIESTA BEACH ,Sarasota Fl is rated #2!!!!!
Quoting Orcasystems:

Have a good one SF, don't tell the girls what your planning for their eggs.


hee, hee -- I would use supermarket eggs for that pleasure......my girl's eggs have more value then the dollar presently --wouldn't wast that on idiots..... see you in the water WhaleMan
Here in Port Orange (Daytona Beach) and its raining again..is it ever going to stop??Streets closed all over the place, some schools closed , need water wings for my jack russell to even go outside, alot of homes and businesses flooded, very very sad
Quoting potteryX:
Good Morning.
Interesting features in the Caribbean and Gulf.
Deaths already reported in Dom.Rep and Haiti from heavy rains. This is very early in the season for them to be experiencing heavy rain.

Looking at the Trop. Atl., very little SAL anywhere, and mid level moisture is quite high. The ITCZ seems to have gone to sleep though.


You have to get a avatar for this profile..I missed your post completely. When are you due back home to your little spot in paradise... or are you going home?
Quoting MissNadia:
The local rag (Wilmington Star News) had an article on beaches this morning:
SIESTA BEACH ,Sarasota Fl is rated #2!!!!!


MISSNADIA - SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!! (ROTFL) I HATE (I rarely use that word) when that report gets published.... it's much better to be a well-kept secret.......

We'd be #1 if we had more amenities....like parking spaces for locals....grrrr
But now perhaps Orca will get his vacation plans straight...... and in spite of what the Panhandle Girls say...... I think I have the sweet spot....shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!
Surfy, Shep, Orca, Pottery, Miss Nadia and Dr. Snake, all on at the same time with a little rain maker in the GOM. This should be an interesting weekend.
Quoting luvnbrat64:
Here in Port Orange (Daytona Beach) and its raining again..is it ever going to stop??Streets closed all over the place, some schools closed , need water wings for my jack russell to even go outside, alot of homes and businesses flooded, very very sad



It certainly seems like the streaming and training showers will never stop for your area of Florida:


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
807 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEW SMYRNA BEACH...SOUTH DAYTONA...
PORT ORANGE...PONCE INLET...ORMOND BEACH...HOLLY HILL...
EDGEWATER...DAYTONA BEACH...

* UNTIL 1100 AM EDT.


* AT 805 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A PERSISTENT BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THIS RAINFALL IS MOVING INTO AN AREA THAT HAS ALREADY
RECEIVED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
THE ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL ACT TO FURTHER WORSEN AN ALREADY
SERIOUS FLOODING SITUATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
TWO TO FOUR INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE QUICK ACTION TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT.
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ550-570-221430-
/O.NEW.KMLB.MA.W.0020.090522T1311Z-090522T1430Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
911 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...

FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM.

* UNTIL 1030 AM EDT

* AT 907 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS ABOUT 18 MILES EAST OF PORT
ORANGE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS. THIS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT.

* THE STORM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR
ORMOND BEACH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE VOLUSIA COUNTY
NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS MAY PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS THROUGH MID
MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU SIGHT A WATERSPOUT...CONTACT THE COAST GUARD VIA MARINE RADIO
OR LOCAL OFFICIALS AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

IF A WATERSPOUT APPROACHES YOU ON LAND...SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY IN
THE INTERIOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. WATERSPOUTS CAN PRODUCE DAMAGE AS
THEY COME ASHORE.

&&

LAT...LON 2947 8111 2949 8076 2886 8037 2883 8074
TIME...MOT...LOC 1307Z 123DEG 15KT 2912 8065

$$


MRV
Yep afraid of that radar doesnt look good at all, think I will stay in and have a pj day LOL
871. Orcasystems 8:59 AM EDT on May 22, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:
I updated my Blog this morning if anyone would like to view......thanks!

TampaSpins Link

I thought this was your Blog?


I do both and both are current....Whats the problem? WOW....The WebSite has also the WU link at the top TaB if you haven't noticed!

TampaSpins Link
Quoting surfmom:


MISSNADIA - SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!! (ROTFL) I HATE (I rarely use that word) when that report gets published.... it's much better to be a well-kept secret.......

We'd be #1 if we had more amenities....like parking spaces for locals....grrrr
But now perhaps Orca will get his vacation plans straight...... and in spite of what the Panhandle Girls say...... I think I have the sweet spot....shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!


I'm not so sure... all it seems to do down there lately is rain.
Quoting surfmom:


You just pushed my button --better give the stick back to KEH..ahemmmmmmmmmm Cory, Shea, Slater -- they surf Waimea & the Pipeline and THEY WIN DUDE...... Mavericks is for the Giant Wave dudes and grace/style is not what they're about.

BTW --- It's sooo good to see you, I was worried you were swamped in the Glades or got your fishing lines tangled w/a Tarpon and went for a ride to Trin.
Kelly Slater is a phenomenal athlete and I bow at his feet. His "DNA", not birthright, is his claim to fame. Leaving Florida and traveling the world to gain experience elsewhere catapulted his career. Nobody, repeat nobody, that surfs Fla alone should be claiming mastery.
Will check back later for updates.
Surfmom the parking at Siesta is terrible. One of the main reasons we would forgoe trying to go on the weekends and just skip school during the week to get our fix of the beach. More often than not if you don't get to the main parking lot by 9 am you can forget getting any decent parking.
new blog
Quoting MissNadia:
The local rag (Wilmington Star News) had an article on beaches this morning:
SIESTA BEACH ,Sarasota Fl is rated #2!!!!!


Morining fellow wunderbloggers!!!
sweeeet....... I'm on my balcony looking at it right now,white sand beaches w/sand thats 99% pure quartz and the texture of baby powder....no wonder its #2.......and the water is usually blueish-green
Quoting theshepherd:
Kelly Slater is a phenomenal athlete and I bow at his feet. His "DNA", not birthright, is his claim to fame. Leaving Florida and traveling the world to gain experience elsewhere catapulted his career. Nobody, repeat nobody, that surfs Fla alone should be claiming mastery.


I didn't say that... His start was from these shores... that was what I meant.

Well the low in the gulf has generated some sweet waves this morning.... the weather was a trip.... from sunny, to squally, to sunny again
A real day in the elements
Quoting aquak9:
hush up, ya'll. NorthEast Florida hasn't seen a real cane since Dora of '64.
Hurricane David was pretty strong near the coast there.