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Gulf of Mexico disturbance; Ultramarathon today in Death Valley

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:01 PM GMT on July 24, 2006

An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave and a weak trough of surface pressure is generating some intense thunderstorms with strong wind gusts over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. At 10am EDT, the winds at buoy 42002, 275 miles South-Southeast of Sabine, TX, recorded a wind gust of 50 mph. Sustained winds have been in the 25-30 mph range at this buoy the past few hours. The thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, but wind shear remains high, 15-25 knots, which is probably too high to allow a tropical depression to develop today. There was a hurricane hunter flight scheduled to take off at 11:30am today to investigate the disturbance, but it was cancelled. The disturbance shows no signs of a ciculation, as one can monitor via Brownsville, TX radar.

Both the GFS and NOGAPS models are forecasting the wind shear to fluctuate up and down through Wednesday, but probably remain above 15 knots. This amount of shear is likely too much for the disturbance to develop into a tropical depression. By Thursday, the wind shear is forecast to drop sharply, increasing the chances for development--if the disturbance hasn't moved over land by then. The disturbance is close to the Mexican coast, and may move ashore by Tuesday near the Texas/Mexico border. NHC has not scheduled a Hurricane Hunter flight for Tuesday.


Figure 1. Preliminary model forecast tracks for the area of disturbed weather in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.

New wave to watch
A large tropical wave with a surface circulation is near 14N 45W, 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The wave is moving west at 15 mph, and should reach the Lesser Antilles islands on Thursday. The wave has entered a region of low wind shear of 5-10 knots which is forecast to persist for the next three days, so some slow development is possible. The primary impediment will be dry air--the wave is surrounded by a huge cloud of African dust and dry air, and thunderstorm activity is currently minimal. A Hurricane Hunter airplane is tenatively scheduled to investigate the system on Thursday.


Figure 2. This morning's visible image of a tropical wave to watch 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

More heat news
The heat continued to set records across the Southwest U.S. over the weekend. On Saturday, the mercury hit an unofficial 120 degrees in Usta, South Dakota, tying that state's all-time high temperature record. The record is expected to be certified by the National Climatic Data Center, according to the local National Weather Service office. The 95 degree low temperature yesterday at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport tied the second all-time warmest low temperature. The all-time warmest low temperature was 96 degrees, set on July 15, 2003.

OK, this is NUTS!
The high temperature in Death Valley reached 125 degrees both Saturday and Sunday, which should cheer up the competitors in today's Badwater Ultramarathon, billed as "the most demanding and extreme running race offered anywhere on the planet". The race starts out in Badwater, Death Valley (just down the road from Furnace Creek, Dante's Peak, and other hellishly named Death Valley attractions!). The competitors run non-stop for 135 miles and three days across Death Valley in the heat of day, across three mountain ranges with a combined vertical ascent of 13,000', and finish at 8,000 feet altitude on Mt. Whitney. Not recommended for the sane!

Jeff Masters
Dante's Peak
Dante's Peak
View of Badwater

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

EPAC? Compare it to the Atlantic? So what? It is what it is. At least in the EPAC nobody gets hurt mostly.
Im stunned they are still talking about it
That's not unusual.
Guys this wave is moving into an area of wamer SST'S and GFS is hinting that it will be moving with an area of low windshear.

Here is the GFS Shear Animation.

Also here is the 24hr Surface Forcast(Under low Windshear)

48 Hour surface forecast Wave Approaching almost at the Islands. ( Under Low windshear)

72 Hour surface forecast Wave in the Eastern Caribbean (under low windshear).

That's about as far as I'll go with windshear forecast and GFS. Adrian






Does this look different? Not!

1007. captj
I am a little nervous being "water locked" so to speak, with possible formation so close to home. I went thruogh Celia as a kid as we stayed and the eye passed over aransas pass basically destroying most everything before the eye came across. The second half of the storm was pretty intense but not as bad as the first few hours as I remember it. I think winds broke the guages at 174 mph or so back then. I watched out the window as roofs of 4 and 5k square foot house just floated off in the air. Since then I have moved to the island only 8 miles away, but much more vulnerable in my opinion here.
captj...You're definitely vulnerable there. But most of us on here are also. You don't have much to worry about with this system except precip and some gusts.
1009. captj
The coolest thing as a kid I remember about the whole deal besides all the stuff being relocated or destroyed, was all the birds in the eye. We drove around town to survey things for that 30 minute period of quiet and I remember thousands and thousands of birds (mostly seagulls) just stuck for lack of a better word. They were just flying around slowly in the calm
You notice the NW GOM in all but the 72hr right 23?
captj...That's always a cool treat to see. They don't fight the storm....just go with it!
captj...I hope things work out well for you regarding this system. Secondly I am sure you are prepared for the worst that might be yet on the way?
1013. captj
when I said the roofs floated off, I meant they were floating in air, as I rememeber a whole lot of water, but not that much rain. I think the water was from the surge in Celia. I have been through several others but none as strong as that one, but there again, I was in my hometown of Aransas Pass for all of them, never in Port A, which is a barrier island. I don't think I could stay here with any degree of confidence for a storm with sustained winds over 100 mph if for no other reason, the elevation here.
Did any of you guys ever notice Stormtop never posts while I am here? Why is that?
You are stormtop!
1016. captj
Randrewl, I figure we will head to the ranch in Laredo with most any signifigant stormheaded this way. All I have there presently is a 38 ft rv which does not sound good, but I figure that far inland I would probably be ok. I just bought the place last year and have not put anything permanent on it yet.
captj...I believe you have the right attitude. Have a plan! The most important thing. Everything else falls into place. Have an escape plan that takes you and your family out of harm's way... way before the chance of a hit.
ProgressivePulse...Written in stone!
captj...Sounds like a good plan. Please don't risk it for anything and stay where you are.
1020. captj
the par that sucks is moving a lot of stuff. We live about 1 1/;2 blocks from the gulf beach and I know with a storm surge of any size all of the downstairs will be flooded at best. Means to me a whole lot of work which I would rather avoid
I think it won't develop any LLC before the whole mess moves inland into Texas over the next 24 hours or so. But it does mean very heavy rain for the Texas coastal counties over the next few days. 5-10 inches may not be that uncommon.
1022. captj
well, as long as southern Webb county gets rain I am on board ;-) The deer need it
1023. RL3AO
Posted By: G35Wayne at 4:59 AM GMT on July 25, 2006.
So far the Pacific Season is blowing the Atlantic season out of the water! Hard to believe that we havent even had a Cat 1 hurricane this year!!

Its not that surprising. Compared to the mean.
captj...Believe me....I know. All of this storm stuff sucks! But you have to do it. Some years more than others. I live a half mile from the inlet here. But we do not have storm surges like the Gulf. We're deeper offshore. Still...I have to cover everything with plastic in the event of water intrusion and raise everything important off the floors! Sucks.
1025. captj
I did not check the tide tonight. For me, that is usually a pretty good tell of any tropical system close to home here. The clouds offshore looked this evening looked big time like a tropical system, but poof, it all dissipated right off the beach.
Hopefully you will not have to worry about that this year captJ, but weather is weather and we choose to live where we do.
Guys get some sleep and try not to worry to much we have a very long season ahead of us.
Right now the Chances for development with 98L are starting to slowly decrease as the shear increases and the system gets closer to land.Iam of to bed good night to everyone be back in the morning. Adrian
captj...Just work off your local NWS site. They will have your best interests at heart for this.
ProgressivePulse...Crazy isn't it?
yes get some sleep evere one this blog is all most at 1100 + post tonight get some sleep night evere one and geting this blog up to 1,100 post is a lot of hard work!
1031. captj
I was reading posts earlier and I saw some sentiment expressed about hurricane parties. I was only 10 years old or so at the time, but during Celia it was exactly that. My grandfather had a tug and barge business and has access to big deisel light plants. So as everything was flying away, we had lights and the ladies were making margaritas as fast as they could drink the damn things. Grandpa coming from Galveston originally had built the house with 18 inch think walls reinforced with steel, so he felt like nothing could blw his house down. You know, he never stayed for another one after Celia.
1032. Inyo
I think Daniel just pooped out.
captj...I've heard many stories like that. Sometimes your best efforts are just not good enough to protect your family. I have a place in North Carolina and a cabin in SW New Mexico....but if you leave....when can you get back in? Takes a big storm to move me also.
Check out the KBRO short/long range radars. That convection is starting to intensify just like I said it would. The shear has subsided since this time last night...

You can see it's moving NNW, or at least the bulk of the activity is. Still no defined 'center' on radar but IR still picks it up -- although ragged and ill defined.

Could get interesting come tomorrow at this time as I still think the moisture from the EPAC get fed into it.
wxwatcher...Throw us a link please.
How do you embed links?

Or you can click on NEXRAD on your top tab on this page and click in the area of deep south Texas....

either way..
Before I go, the east atlantic DUST BUNNIES deserve a look. Low over the weekend cleared this path, another is right behind @ 20N sittin high.
1040. Alec
wow.....over 1000 posts in a day....and it's not even a depression....LOL

Yeah, but don't let that fool you... I'm guessing it looks all split apart because the bands haven't filled in... I think it will rather quickly though.

It's kinda early... seems like it didn't kick off until later last night...
Loading the Brownsville radar...this might take a while!
1045. captj
hmm. It would not take much, and I suppose maybe some younger people used to having all the benefits of modern imagery don;t realize that a system can sit for days and not even move but yet strengthen or weaken.
1046. captj
lol, no big deal if it is not in your back yard I might add. If this was near Florida I most probably would not even be posting here and I am just being honest.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO DRIFTING NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COVER MUCH OF THE W GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF
92W INLAND OVER MEXICO AND TO THE TEXAS COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE.

Coffee anyone lol.
1049. captj
yes, coffee here, I just found out I am out of wine
wxwatcher.....Brownsville radar looks like Florida on any given day. Convection is out there and then it just vanishes. Just some rain on the way maybe. I'll be honest. I don't think this system is even going to be much of a rain maker over land.
1052. scla08
Where do you think this thing is going wx, and do you think it has an increased chance of developing after this convection that just blew up?
still remains so it must be offshore, right?

BTW I just save a bunch of money on my car insurance because my insurance company dropped me for living in Florida.
1055. captj
That is the pizzer, after all of this and not even any rain should it happen that way.
captj...That's ok. I understand all that. But it is in your sideyard now so you are here. That's fine. Tell us what you know?
captj...Tell me again where are you in relation to Brownsville?
Ah naw Rand, you can clearly see it increasing in both coverage and intensity. Echos even increased from 55 to 58 dBZ and it's closing in on KBRO.

Once it moves inland, I think it will be a substantial rain maker. The latest GOES sounder (the latest I have, anyway) shows PW's pooling over S, SC, and SE, TX near 2" (1.93) and close to 2.5" over the Gulf.

If it makes it to the Texas Hill Country and has the Escarpment to work with, I think TX is in for a flood event.
They fester CaptJ, early season storms bug me becuase they are so unpredictable.
1061. captj
How so, sideyard, it is basically due south or something to that effect. As far as what I know not sure what you are asking for. I do know that the Texas Cat pool windstorm folks were here last week inspecting roof's here. First time in over 15 years I have ben here they have done that. I asked the guy if they know something we should.
1063. Alec
btw, the utility costs around here are ridiculus!....feeling a depression forming in my head..lol
lol Alec.
1066. captj
I am on mustang island, a few miles north of padre island. we are about 30 miles north of corpus christi and a few miles southwest I think of rockport....I think
wxwatcher...Just speak plain english. I'm observing the short range Brownsville radar and I see convection out there...but doing the usual thing ov fizzling! What are you observing and provide a link please.
Brownsville short range radar:

Link
1070. captj
my daughter has a faspitch tournament here this weekend and the animals need water in laredo. Seems reasonable to have this thing fire up and move off to the northwest and make a lot of people happy, but not everyone. I think there are a few folk that want a major storm real bad....till they get it
scla, I think it's going to officially move inland very close to KBRO, then move NNW toward or just west of Alice, TX then continue moving NNW toward George West, TX and possibly become a 'cut-off-low' near or just W of KSAT...

As far as developing, I think it's close proximity to land and continued forward motion are the major inhibiting factors for development. Since an eastward shift is not likely, given the building subtropical high to the east, chances for development into a cyclone are almost nil.

I predict that the blow up in convection tonight will get people buzzing in the morning though; it should look awfully healthy in a few hours...
captj...Is this where you live?

Link
1073. captj
wx, please send it a little west of george west, maybe aguilares
Yeah captj, Mustang is all of the island south of Port A, about 10 miles E of Corpus, 30 from Rockport. We stay down there at Sandpiper almost every summer.

How do you embed links, Rand?
wxwatcher...If you just want to post a link. Copy the address and in the wunderground box click link and paste the address there. then post it!
Yeah JP, I actually say it's 50/50 for a TD at this point. I'm somewhat impressed with the tightness of the system tonight and the shear has subsided slightly...

It may get TD status...... not going to bet the farm though..
jphurricane2006...I must have missed that! I could not have agreed with whatever you say.
LOL! I got it! We've done that several times today!
1085. captj
OK, it is official for me. I am now having an unamed tropical disturbance party. Patron gold tequila shots for all.
1086. scla08
Thanks wx. Now in your opinion, will South Louisiana get flooding rains too, or will it just be primarily Texas?
Ok, next question, how do you insert a picture?
Somebody display a huge map of Padre, Mustand and corpus! Or do I need to do that?
Tips for posting:

Link
1091. captj
lol, my antique pc would freeze I I even let it kjnow I was thinking about trying such a feat
jphurricane2006...Have you observed lately? Only a shadow of it's former smear!

I see the night convection is beginning to build & expect the rainbow to be quite colorful in the morning. Can't really decern any center like earlier, maybe tommarrow. I'll skip the coffee, but thanks...nite ya'll
75.2
1094. captj
hmm, sorry for the typos. it is getting late
captj....I know....that's ok. I have to close about "27" windows and I'll get that up directly.
jphurricane2006...Shut up! LOL
1098. captj
well that is just great. I break out the patron gold and skyepony leaves.
Randrewl...look at the time, hit refresh or here gulf on rainbow 5:45utc is the last.
1101. scla08
Thanks jp.
1102. captj
randrewl, you have 27 windows too?
scla, I think right now the main effects felt in Louisiana will be widely scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms producing isolated pockets of heavy rain (provided breaks in the clouds for heating to reach convective temps) but no widespread flood event.

However, IF it should track more on a northerly path toward Houston or to the east, Louisiana could experience some flooding. What would make the effects in Texas a little worse (especially on a more westerly track) are the Escarpment and residual moisture from the Pacific. Either way, with PW's as high as they are and the copious moisture associated with it, I'd expect widespread 2-5 inch totals along and just east of the center with 1-3 inch amounts on the eastern fringes (and of course locally higher amounts).

The other problem to look out for are the 'core-rains' that develop over the night time hours. Those tend to dump as much as 12-20 inches in one night (depending on how much moisture is available).

Something to watch, for sure. Again, not necessarily a wind/beach threat as much as it is a flooding threat.
sorry captj...on est here. Just stopped by straightnin Randrewl on time:) & turning off the computer.
Coordinates: 27.73 N 97.13 W

Nearest Largest City: Corpus Christi, Texas, USA

Selected Characteristics:
Area of Coverage: 160 km2
Width: 4.0 km
Length: 40.0 km

Community Structure:
The vegetation holding the dunes in place is mostly composed of drought-resistant species such as sea oats, beach panic grass and soilbind morning glory. Rodents such as pocket gophers, spotted ground squirrels, grasshopper mice, rice rats and cotton rats, dominate the island animal community. Other small mammals include opossums, raccoons, striped skunks, jackrabbits, cottontail rabbits and armadillos. Small populations of coyotes are present, as well. Large numbers of waterfowl and shorebirds are common, as well as several species of hawks and a large variety of songbirds, most of which are migratory. An estimated 600 species of saltwater fish inhabit the waters along the coast.

Anyone with the ability to throw a photo of Mustang Island on here is doing better than I.
I saw that "panic grass" species mentioned there.....kind of scary!
Sounds like some women I know.
1110. captj
wetry to keep this place a secret ;-)
1112. scla08
ok wx. thanks
Coordinates: 27.73 N 97.13 W

Not a secret any longer friend!
I'm around 27 and 80
jphurricane2006...I knew that was coming. No, that's the grass that knows better than to stay for a storm!
captj...You might want to follow the Panic Grass.
1117. captj
lol, I watch king of the hill a lot, not sure about everyone else. They had an entire e[pisode devoted to port aransas including the ferries, which were not quite portrayed realistically. Hank had to get his mom and her elderly friends on the last ferry off the island during spring break which was accurate. But the ferries never quit running unless there is a storm making it unsafe to run them
Hahaha, I was just thinking about talking about those hurricane parties and I thought, 'the people in Port A can party a little longer now that causeway is finally finished'.. hahahaha


ANYway, dare I say it, but I think what could be the center is showing up on KBRO short range. Don't get fooled by the horizonal axis passing it, pay attention to the bottom most storms --- they all appear to be rotating.

Have to wait for the enitre complex to come into the short range picture to get a better look.......
1121. captj
I got a little worried about this one mainly because the ferries can not handle a really high tide, but as wx mentioned , they did finally raise the other road out.
1122. captj
everytime I bury gold here the damn turtles dig it up.
captj...Damn turtles! You just can't trust nature.
1124. captj
I keep thinking,... now what exactly are those turtles doing with that gold. Now it has become clear to me, they know a hurricane is coming, not sure when as they seem to not jump the gun in most situations
Yeah captj, I remember being down there sometimes in the winter and the water would be at the dunes and partially over the old causeway. Even when they were building the new one, I remember traffic was backed up forever because water had gone over.... That was crazy for awhile, but sure worth it when they got done!
1126. captj
wx, I try not to use the ferry anymor as it has gotten worse, even thought they have 6 landings now I think.
1127. captj
sorry for the typos, but please remember I am having an unamed tropical disturbance party with my friend patron gold.
captj...Doesn't look good for you. I just received an "applet death error" while trying to load the Corpus radar!
Ok, I think it's safe to say, that's the center moving into the KBRO short range. Can't see the entire thing but this satellite pretty much confirms it.

Moving on a NNW track, essentially hugging the Mexican coastline....

Gotta go take a smoke break
1130. captj
a smoke break? hell I have to take a break from smoking when I leave the pc

Doesn't look so bad for Corpus.
captj.....Computers make me crave a smoke...BRB!
jphurricane2006...RGB means (really great burgers). You figure out the rainbow!
1135. captj
that is what pizzes me off. I really need rain on the webb/zapata county line. I think I have had about 6 or 7 inches this year which is good considering the conditions, but it would be really nice for something to get the animals through till next spring and this thing seems like the perfect opportunity
hard to see any "center" at all... if any rotation can be seen .. it looks to be opposite of the way it should be rotating, to my inexperienced eyes anyway
1139. captj
CatChaser, I guess things did not work out for you here. I hope you are happyu where you are now. Hopefully with many cats.
captj...You need to stay in here man. Great sense of humor. I hope your livestock get the precip they need over there. It's possible here. But you know weather.
jphurricane2006..Sleep. See ya.
appears to be a nice rain maker for all of SE texas... I know I'm looking forward to a break from the knee buckling heat..
Well captj, you should get something out there... if it moves NW tomorrow, you could be in for a rain feast. If it tracks more NNW, you may only get an inch at best as that area will be on the dry side.

Here's what it looks like for tonight. Expect rain to fill in across most of deep south Texas toward daybreak, then spread north to between CRP and BRO, then start to taper off in the afternoon hours from west to east. Expect 'pop-corn' type thunderstorms across the southern portions of South Central Texas and across all of South Texas. Expect massive flare up of activity across most of the western Gulf with pieces of energy slung toward Houston. The bulk of the heavy rain will remain off shore across the Houston area thanks to a weak area of high pressure building in from the north. As the evening progresses tomorrow, expect the center to continue moving NNW and be between BRO and ALI tomorrow night with core-rains focusing in the area and moderate rains being brought on shore between Rockport and Kingsville.

Also expect the bats to be released from their attics around daybreak with people confusing 'spin-offs' of energy for erratic movements to the north; expect others to want to argue that the disturbance is a TD and finally, expect people to confuse the vortexes that will embed themselves in the convection for the true center.

Bottom line, NNW motion over night (hugging the Mexican coast), increase in convection, and a show tomorrow...

I'm fixing to put myself to sleep...
1146. captj
:-)
Let's don't get excited.

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
TAMPICO DRIFTING NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COVER MUCH OF THE W GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF
92W INLAND OVER MEXICO AND TO THE TEXAS COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE.
1149. captj
thank you wx. get some sleep and we start all over tomorrow. once again , thanks.
Next troublemaker:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 21N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE
CURVATURE WITH A EQUALLY WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER OBSERVED
ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE LATEST SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 11N-22N BETWEEN 45W-52W.
CATL thing:

No prob. I got my long range radar from BRO up so if any huge blow up should occur, I will be awaken.

I actually came up with something I'm testing... I load up a radar site and either set the alarm to coverage, intensity, or both... If the radar displays that limit, an alarm goes off (actually just loud beeps). Soooo, if say, the Gulf would fill in with deep convection, it would wake me up... it's actually kinda neat especially with squall lines because sometimes I don't want to wait up all night and by the time NOAA goes off, it's already on top of me!

Anyway, I'll probably let sleep come...
1153. captj
catchaser. I guess things do change over time. I am not sure if you can still shoot your rifles in charly's or not, but don't be a stranger, especially if you grew up here
This stuff happens every year.


"Though heat waves rarely are given adequate attention, they claim more lives each year than floods, tornadoes, and hurricanes combined," warns the EPI. "Heat waves are a silent killer, mostly affecting the elderly, the very young, or the chronically ill."

Heat waves in the US are a natural occurence. Happens every year somewhere. Some years are worse than others. Temperatures that reach above previous records are considered extremely high. Many elderly and infirm perish. Really it is no different than a Tropical Storm or a minimal Hurricane. Just comes through and trims the branches.
People die during heat waves! Why? Totally unprepared that's why. If you live a life totally unprepared for anything....guess what happens? You are found unprepared for anything that threatens you.
More people die in heat waves than all tornadoes, hurricanes, floods and lightning storms put together!
Read this and tell me a few high temps around the US are caused by supposed global warming?
I can't see it yet. There is no mass die off of the population anywhere in the US.
I personally live with stifling heat this time of summer. I haven't died yet. Neither has anyone else in my community. And we won't. Simply because it is just not that hot!
Don't start the global warming Al Gore stuff here people unless you have done your research. Heat waves are a normal part of living on this Earth. Learn to deal with it. You younger people are on the global warming wagon and that's ok for you. I just invite all of you to please take the time to develop a "personal" point of view on the subject. Don't go along with the program just because everybody says it's right. I don't say it's right. Maybe you can also find some truth if you stop listening to the media and start digging for your own truth!
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Climate of 2001
Summer Heat in the U.S.

National Climatic Data Center, 08 August 2001

Temperatures were cooler than average in the eastern U.S. during July with relatively mild conditions prevalent across much of the eastern third of the nation and parts of the West. However, extreme heat and humidity began to build across the central U.S. due to the presence of a persistent ridge of high pressure. Daily highs greater than 90 and 100 F were common throughout much of the Central Plains in July with above average heat continuing into August. With dew point temperatures above 70 F in the same region, heat stress index readings soared well above 100 F in many locations. Although temperatures and humidity levels have been much above average, the number of deaths resulting from this summer's heat has not approached the magnitude of heat waves of the recent past. The 1995 Chicago heat wave resulted in more than 400 deaths . In the disastrous heat wave of 1980, more than 1250 people died across the U.S. as the direct result of extreme conditions, with an estimated 10,000 deaths related to heat stress.
My blog is updated. Read for yourself about heat waves.
This one, right?

Morning all. Looks like TT needs to find another sand box to play in.

Looks quite out there today, but that wave needs to be watched if it can shake the dry air. Still only the CMC is trying to develop it, and due to the Candian model trying to develop everything, I won't give it much credit yet. The BOC still has an outside chance at making TD, but looks pretty unlikely.

ya'll have a great day

StormJunkie.com-Find the best free weather data on the web.
Hurricane Warning


There are maps, satellite images, advisories, and my analysis about Tropical Storm Daniel which is threatening Hawaii, tropical storm Emilia, and Tropical Storm Kamei which is threatening China on hurricane warning.
BWAHHAHAHAHAHA!

This is for you!

Clicky!
1187. IKE
Some people on here have WAAAAAY too much time on their hands.
IKE

Hehe. While I like to think I do have to much extra time, that link is dynamic, you can change the name to suit the occasion.
hey randrewl, are you here? jo
1190. ricderr
OK RED.......What website is that from.......totally funny...would like to send it to the wife but i would need to edit a few
1194. ricderr
big words from a little kid...mommy know you're playing on the computer again?....i see someone getting grounded real soon
What happened in here yesterday??? 1100+ comments???

No way I can catch up on that . . .
1197. ricderr
Baha...may i suggest speed reading?....or......treat it like a soap opera.....whatever happened yesterday...will be repeated today.... ;-)
Baha, you did't miss much. Just alot of discussion about the two disturbances (Bay of Campeche and Cent. Atl.) Not a whole lot of substance, not much drama until this morning.
I see they have transfered the discussions for Daniel to CPHC . . . . and the forecast is currently for Daniel to hit the big island as a TS on Thursday night / Friday morning . . .

What a persistent little storm!
I won't have time today, unfortunately. Got a 10 a. m. mtg, and no wireless at the site :o(

The two ATL waves look like they persisted though, and it's getting to be that time (August, I mean). Also the GoM feature does look like it will bring rain, though I see some huge blowup of thunderstorms down by the LA coast. Hope it makes it on shore in TX!

Ya'll have fun. I'll be back tonight . . . .
1201. nash28
The CATL wave is looking good. It has made it through some of the dust and dry air and is still rolling along.
ricderr

You've got mail.
I seldom post on here but do enjoy reading everyones take and have learned a tremendous amount but I have to say that there is no room for people like TropicalTerror and his obscene comments. Everyone should report his post as obscene simply for the vulgar language.
1204. nash28
Agreed StPete. These "people" and I use that term loosely, need to find something else to do with their pitiful lives.
looks like a lot more convection this morning over the open gulf waters
The C Atl looks very unimpressive this morning. Still has a LONG ways to go if it wants a name... IMO.
nash....do not be too judgemental towards others, in the Lord's eyes we are all the same. I saw his posts as well which are not justified however, we should pray for him in addition to having him banned.
1208. nash28
Sorry rapid. I just do not have patience for those who wish to be an irritant. I guess it is a character flaw of mine, but him being banned I completely agree with.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO
BETWEEN TAMPICO AND BROWNSVILLE TEXAS DRIFTING NORTHWARD.
SURFACE LOW IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AIDING IN THE
GENERATION OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IN THE NW
GULF WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 27N92W TO THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
24N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 90W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IF THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS
OFFSHORE OR ALONG THE COAST IN WHICH CASE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD DEVELOP. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP IT WILL STILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO NE MEXICO AND S TEXAS

$
WALLACE

TT~ ussually your like a fresh breath of chaos, but language like this morning will get you banned. For images, practice in your own blog or use the preview feature.

For the newbies that have been hanging out & chatting in this blog, nothing against ya'll~ this has come up in the past...chit chat in another blog. Plenty of chattin blogs, if you don't like them, take it to your own & tell those you've been chatting with. This blog is way tooo big for an invest.
1211. ricderr
skye..i enjoy your posts and they are informative...however..when you decide how to moderate this blog...ie (chit chat in another blog) i feel you cross the line. the same could be said about those that want a pure weather only blog.... take it to another blog....i'm not endorsing that viewpoint..just that it is as valid as yours...i happen to feel this site is for entertainment where if you don't watch out..you'll even learn something...aka the discovery channel....most people here.....seem to want both and contribute as such..i include myself in that category...my 2 cents
I enjoy this blog, Thank you all for helping me learn about the weather.
I looks as if the low level "circulation" can maintain its current intensification, then 98l may have enough time to develop into a system as its heads for the slight bend of the texas coast. If 98l remains on its north track there will be enough distance placed b/w the llc and coastline to get some decent wrap around. It will likely only have about 12-24 hrs to achieve this though.
1214. crownwx
I noticed on this morning's 850 mb Relative Vorticity Analysis that a new area of vorticity may be forming further out over the GOM. I'm interested to see if a new area of low pressure may form in this area. Link

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com
1215. PBG00
Just catching up here..but, since when do educated well spoken adults use the term "Butt Plug" LOL
Morning all!
1217. PBG00
Hey PP...Check out the CMC model..850 vorticity..interesting
Makes you wonder PBG00! lol.
1219. nash28
Just trying to get a point across guys. Butt plug just happened to pop up in my head at the time. I chose (unlike TT earlier) not to be more vulgar.
1220. PBG00
Just yankin your chain nash..no biggie..
1221. nash28
No problem:-)
1222. nash28
The latest CMC 850 mb Vort has the CATL wave making landfall on the east coast of FL before recurving back out to sea. Very interesting...
I am still waiting for the next few GFS and NOGAPS model runs to acknowledge this before I get to excited.
Morning all.

Looks like things are starting to get a little more active out there. I still don't think that 98L has much of a shot, but that is just my geuss. Also still waiting to see how low E of the Antilles does. The dry air is still supressing it fairly well for now, but once it gets to the islands it may have a better chance.

See ya'll later, back to work.
StormJunkie.com-Forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info and much more. If anyone has any suggestions for the site please email me or leave them in my blog.

Thanks
SJ
1224. PBG00
GFS sort of hints at it
1225. IKE
Dr. M has a new blog.........
I was noticing that too PBG00, have to see the later model runs today.
1227. PBG00
At leaste it is something to watch..
1228. snotly
GOM; looks like a center is forming near Brownsville... any surface winds?? low pressure??