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Gulf of Mexico disturbance; New Orleans levee plan released

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:09 PM GMT on July 13, 2006

The main area of concern today is a tropical wave off of the west coast of Florida that is kicking off some heavy thunderstorms over the waters surrounding Key West. Wind shear is low enough to permit some slow development of this disturbance over the next day or two as it moves westward or west-northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico at 10 mph. However, the area of thunderstorms is of limited size, surface pressures are not falling, and there are no signs that this area may be a future threat.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico.

An upper level low pressure system is spinning over the western Gulf of Mexico. This low is expected to move ashore over Mexico by Friday without any tropical development occurring.

A tropical wave that moved through the Lesser Antilles Wednesday is in the eastern Caribbean. The wave has limited thunderstorm activty, and there is high wind shear and plenty of dry air in the eastern Caribbean. Development of this wave is unlikely.

The three computer models best at forecasting tropical storm formation (GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS) are all predicting no tropical storm formation in the Atlantic for the next six days. Wind shear is forecast to remain high during this period, then begin a slow decrease through the end of July.

New Orleans flood protection on hold
A long awaited Army Corps of Engineers report on Louisiana coastal protection and restoration came out this week. The report had no specific recommendations on immediate actions to take to protect New Orleans from the next hurricane, saying another 18 months was needed to study the problem. Politicians and scientists immediately criticized the plan, saying that action is needed now. In particular, Governor Blanco of Louisiana and Louisiana's Senators were upset that five specific recommendations that they had agreed on with the Corps in May were stripped out of the proposal:

-- Beginning design work on a barrier and gate plan to protect the New Orleans area from major hurricanes.

-- Closing the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet (MR-GO) to major ship traffic and beginning environmental restoration of the wetlands adjacent to it.

-- Design work on a plan for rebuilding eroded barrier islands and headlands and building new ones in the Barataria basin, which includes parts of Jefferson, Lafourche and Terrebonne parishes.

-- Authorizing the Morganza-to-Gulf hurricane levee project that stretches along much of the same area and has been awaiting congressional approval for several years.

-- Approval and financing for a variety of smaller restoration projects in southwestern Louisiana.

"These critical projects cannot wait another 18 months to be considered for action by Congress," Blanco said in a statement released Monday.

In the report, the Corps say they have completed emergency repairs to 169 miles of New Orleans levees, which are now as strong or stronger than before Hurricane Katrina. I can't tell from news reports what levee work--if any--is currently going on, I'd be interested to see if any of you know. In particular, is the $3 billion plan to move the pumping stations on the 17th Street Canal and London Avenue Canal to Lake Pontchartrain being worked on? It seems to me that this work is the most critical flood protection measure that needs to be undertaken.

I'll be back with an update this afternoon on the Gulf of Mexico system.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Dr. M. Looks as if Pensacola may get our much needed rain after all! Bad for the Blue Angels airshow this weekend but good for my garden.
Dr M.. Is that a "Development of this wave is likely" your estimation or a type O?
Thank you
Thank you again Dr. M. Happy to hear Mr. Shear will stay around for a bit longer.
People can we please quit posting huge pictures in the main blog? People on dial-up connections have big problems downloading a 1MB picture on a blog.

When we get about 20 pictures posted in here, it kills the blog.

Why not post a link? That makes is good for everyone. View the picture if you want, don't view it if you don't. Either way there is a choice.

Use your own blog for images.

456, this wasn't directed you specifically, as many here do it. You just happened to be the one to post the image that got my attention this morning.
HEY DR. M,
THANKS FOR THE UPDATE. GLAD TO KNOW PENSACOLA MAY GET SOME WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. COME ON TROPICAL WAVE (25N & 83W)!!!! WE NEED THE RAIN!!!! IT'LL SAVE ON MY WATER BILL! (LOL)
Mornin..Finally some sunshine here..
newest [spam]
Is it just me, or does Bud look stronger than it is?

Also, how below average are we in the EPac this season so far?


from the quicksat link skyepony posted of the pacific storms.... amazing stuff..... huh?

looks like a trough set up from cuba to the panhandle..... maybe the panhandle can get some significant rain from this?

maybe i just never paid attention, but this ull in the gulf seems really strange to me! not sure if i have seen one.... well that has such a wide area of influence (the whole gulf! LOL)

as for 96l, looks like ut still has alot of shear coming from the sw..... but 96l seems to be heading nnw into an area with "a litlle" lower shear..... guess we'll have to see how the shear patterns change after that.....

on the latest cmc model, anybody notice it appears we may get a cut-off low left by a trough, which forms.... or am i misreading? course i guess according to Dr. Masters, the cmc is about useless for tropical forecasting! LOL

here is the forecast 6 days out:
"there are no signs that this area may be a future threat." - Dr. Masters

well, guess its "our job" to "look" for signs... :)


My hand crafted (thanks, NASA) visible loop of what was 96L.


As I mentioned before, by the John Hope rule (if it isn't a TC by the time it reaches the islands, it won't become one in the Eastern Caribbean) it won't become a cyclone before Sunday at the earliest, but its not looking that bad considering where it is and what its up against.
hmmm.... i tink you should be able to post "some pictures", but i can appreciate the frustration of dialup users......

maybe we should try and come up with a "maximum size" of an image.... may 100kb or 200kb? or is that still too much?

guess we need to come to some kind of "friendly" agreement?
17. WSI
Hey thelmores.

I know images make things more appealing, its just with a blog that has this kind of traffic, I would think links would be more sufficient. That is just my opinion. If I am the only one that thinks this, I will shut up. LOL!

thelmores,

The ULL in the gulf is nothing strange. ULL can get absolutly huge! Way larger then your average hurricane and many larger
then even Typhoon Tip. This one in particular is becoming larger and stronger due to the fact that it is providing an outflow
channel for Carlotta, which happened to get upgraded to a hurricane overnight when it developed a very nice CDO - since then
cloud structure has degraded a great deal. If it weren't for Carlotta and the extremely moist air she's pumping into the low
through her outflow, I doubt it would have become as large as it has.
19. WSI
"This one in particular is becoming larger and stronger due to the fact that it is providing an outflow channel for Carlotta"

That looks really neat on animated sat. images too.
I'll add my .02. I agree with links over images. That way, you can have both!! Images to look at for those it is easy for, and no blog drag for those with dial up. Is this what is called a win-win for all? Have a great day everyone.
As for images, I use Firefox as my browser and can selectively "kill" an image. I end up using that feature often on this blog - mostly when an image skews the margins.

I'm a visual person so I like the quick visual that corresponds with what the poster is referencing. What I don't like about links is often I follow that link and then don't have enough knowledge to select the correct options to see what the poster is referencing. But, don't make a decision based upon enabling my ignorance. LOL
I agree with code. I like the images, but we should be respectful of those who have dial up connections.
Regarding the levee work in New Orleans, the plan to put the pumping stations at the head of the 17th St, London Avenue, and Orleans Canals is a long-term plan, to be completed within 4-5 years. In the meantime, they're building floodgates at the heads of the canals which will close if the storm surge in Lake Pontchartrain gets over 5 feet. So there shouldn't be a repeat of the canal wall failures. The downside of this plan is that with the flood gates shut, rain water that is pumped into the canals has no where to go. The AC of E has been adding temporary pumps at the head of the canal to pump the rain water around the floodgates and into the Lake, but they have a much lower capacity than the huge pumps that drain the city. This means that if there is storm has both a large surge and is a major rain event, there will be more street flooding from rain in some parts of the city. The AC of E is behind schedule on building the floodgates, but they say that if a storm were to come now, they would close off the canals using sheet pilings, as they did during Hurricane Rita.

Links:
http://www.nola.com/search/index.ssf?/base/news-1/115234045960150.xml?NSWEA&coll=1

http://www.nola.com/search/index.ssf?/base/news-1/115199265128170.xml?NSWEA&coll=1

WSI - I can sympathize over dial up as I used to have it and recognize the vast improvement with Cable. I don't have a problem with the images in the blog per se, however, recently many have posted links that are very helpful and by viewing them from a link they are then bookmarkable which is great! TOTALLY support the "friendly agreement" view as the nastiness that crops up gets far more in the way than images! IMHO
Stormy - I second that on knowing which options to select.
27. IKE
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters...

Who needs Bastardi? I like to read your opinions.

A big blowup of thunderstorms off SW Fl. this morning.

Maybe rain for us up here in the panhandle. We had at least .50 inches of rain yesterday.

Not sure about the shear being too high. This according to Dr. M..."Wind shear is low enough to permit some slow development of this disturbance over the next day or two as it moves westward or west-northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico at 10 mph."

Looking at the shear map on this website it looks favorable. That ULL is moving on and should be out of the way.
28. IKE
Looking at a Key West radar...looks like an ever so slight spin to the radar echoes. Thought I saw a swirl on a visible loop earlier...now thunderstorms have formed.
29. IKE
Dail-up does suck. Cable is great!
I think I sense a little, tiny and minute hint of sarcasm from the Gulf Scotsman, but I just have a feeling that the former 96L at least tries to develop eithe rin the extreme Western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche. Whether it can come up close to Texas, I, as I often am, am completely clueless.
i think it would be appropriate to allow some images, just limit the size..... just my $.02....

how are we gonna come to"a consensus", and an agreement would just be "a ladies and gentlemen" agreement..... obviously we have little way to enforce any rules.....

no matter what browser you use, there are ways to disable the imeges, and we could certainly post these methods. in the end, i just want to be respectful, for all concerned..... but as the ole saying, sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words! :)
When WU Radar goes down in Miami, what do you all use. ty.

Message Date: Jul 12 2006 22:46:49 WFO ELTEC AT THE KAMX RADAR SITE DISCOVERED TWO BOARDS IN THE DAU THAT WERE BURN ED UP...APPARENTLY DUE TO LIGHTNING. REPLACEMENT BOARDS HAVE BEEN ORDERED AND WI LL BE HERE IN THE MORNING THURSDAY BUT RADAR WILL BE DOWN UNTIL THEN.
WSI, sorry about that....
2 Twisters last night just North of me here in NYC...Just thought I'd throw in my local weather excitement.
I guess the only this to watch is the wave off of Key West..looks pretty low key here the next couple of days..
...if you all make a "friendly agreement" to use more links and less images - I would like a clause to that agreement that states all link posters must provide detailed instructions to us newbies as to what we are suppose to select and/or click once we get to your link.

maybe just a little image every once in a while to add more color to the page? :-)
Key West radar (KBYX IIRC)would be good for watching former Bahama Mama blob.
Good morning all. Looks like the immediate areas of interest today will be a continuation of yesterday. Two hurricanes in the East Pacific, a tropical wave coming off of the West FL coast with an apparent mid-level low at its southern end currently over the FL Keys, and (former) 96L which managed to fire up some convection last night in the face of 20kt+ shear.

I was up until past 3:00 AM last night reading a book online while occasionally checking the satellite loops, and deep convection in the vicinity of Florida was practically nil through the wee hours of the morning. So I was surprised when I woke after sunrise to see the deep convection again circling cyclonically in the vicinity of the Middle Keys.

There was a lot of good information and discussion on this blog yesterday about some long-range factors that could come into play later this season, especially about Gulf SSTs, the Loop Current, and Loop Current Eddies. I want to share with everyone here the link for an excellent book currently available online for review that covers the topic of the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current and the factors that lead to the genesis of Loop Current Eddies: "On the Circulation In and Around the Gulf of Mexico: VOLUME I - A Review of the Deep Water Circulation" by William J. Schmitz Jr., Physical Oceanographer, Scientist Emeritus, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute. The book is a work in progress, and as has become common in recent years, the author has put the nearly finished work online for review.

Highly recommended reading for anyone with more than a passing interest in the state of the art scientific knowledge of current flow in the GoM. Ch. 4 has a good summary for a "general audience", and Appendix D has a very informative overview of the connections between the surface and deep water flow of the Earth's oceanic currents, focusing down on the relationship between currents in the Gulf of Mexico and flow in the oceans of the world and the Atlantic ocean in particular. I havent finished reading the book yet, but the information in this text has already corrected several misconceptions and mistaken ideas I had about the oceans of our planet and especially the GoM.
Speaking of KBYX radar from EYW, while I don't see anything South of what appears to be a vorticity center SW of EYW actually moving from West to East, the stuff North of it is moving from East to West a whole lot faster, so there is a turning, IMHO.
ok, yesterday, i asked about the irculation of the system in the keys, and was told the circulation (if any) was at 18,000ft..... never actually figured out where "18,000ft" came from.....

now guygee says "an apparent mid-level low at its southern end "......

my question..... what is mid level, what is upper level...... obviously surface is surface..... but how do you find the level the actual circulation is at? what source? would quicksat provide this data.....

if somebody could expound on this, it would be greatly appreciated! :)
41. WSI
456, Like I said I wasn't speaking of you specifically. We all are guilty of it, including me. Just saying it may be time to be courteous to other bloggers in this regard.
EdMahmoud - Interesting distinction about whatever kind of low pressure area is passing nearly overhead the KBYX radar. I think you are right that we would want to see a "closed circulation" to call it a "low", but is that "closed" relative to the motion of the low center, or closed relative to a fixed surface reference point? I am really not sure of the answer to that myself.

Anyways, considering the location of the radar in relation to the area of maximum vorticity in the area, is it possible the radar isn't "seeing" far enough into the mid-levels in composite mode? Any discussion appreciated on these points.


Well, I may be someowhat interested in former Bahama Mama and former 96L, but NHC isn't.

No mention of invest flights for 53rd WRS next 2 days


Of course, I'm just a hobbyist, and they are degreed professionals.

That isn't sarcasm, btw, while I'm an enthusiastic hobbyist, I'm just a hobbyist.
thelmores - I said "apparent mid-level" because I don't see any evidence of a low at the surface, after checking all official land and sea-based observation stations. EdMahmoud questions whether it is even a low, and I am open for discussion on that one.

If you are looking at a radar in base mode, you can derive the height of features from the elevation angle of the radar, the radar elevation, and the distance between the feature and the radar. It is not at all clear to me how to do the same in composite mode.
who flipped the switch on the East Pac hurricane season... nothing for months and then last week...
I just noticed that Christopher Landsea co-wrote the Bud advisory w/ Lixion Avila. I wonder if he is training up to make the move from research to prognostication.

He is pretty widely published, per a quick internet search.


Maybe Turtle could elbaorate for us.
Good morning all,

Can someone, please, help me understand this page:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmcglb/fcst/archive/06071300/86.html

I'm assuming that system is our Key's Blob and if I'm reading it correctly, this model is predicting it to become a warm core system and to intensify when it hits the high SSTs in the Gulf?

Thanks in advance!
B
5 to 10 kts of sheer in the eastern half of the gulf. Who said it was to high.
(Piratechris's mother here, lol, )

My mother lives approx. 3 miles from the 17th street canal and about 1 mile from Lake Pontchartrain. I visited there last week and drove to Chalmette (St. Bernard Parish) and thought the lower 9th ward and also drove over the Industrial canal .

They are building the floodgates (massive steel doors with 8-10 chambers apparently with small pumps in the chambers?) on the 17th street canal but it is a long term project and that even when it is finished, it will only have 1/10 of the pumping capacity that it had at the time of Katrina. The gates will close during a storm surge and when that happens, the major pumping station won't be able to pump water out of the 17th street canal. Water in the house is still water in the house-- is it an achievement to say people will only have 1/2 a foot of water instead of 4 feet in their houses?

As an aside, my mother received no damage to her house from Katrina (she did inherit a chicken though from Katrina); my mother-in-law who lives one mile from the 17th street canal also received no damage from the hurricane. Obviously, they both live on the "good side" of the canal. My mother-in-law moved up here by us in late April; she can't take the stress any more.

www.nola.com is a good resource.

Well, according to the model right now, it is basically between a warm-core and a cold-core system, which most likely means that there is essentially no core. If it follows the model, it will intensify but only to roughly a 1010 mb storm, which is nothing to care about that much. While it will be intensifing, it will make a slow and transition into a weak warm-core storm. Im probably wrong and am reading the graphics upside-down or something.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THESE TWO AREAS.


Very impressive wave has just come off Africa, and is just SSW of Cape Verde Islands. There does appear to be a LLC associated with this wave. The Cape verde season may possibly be ready to kick-off.
















Forgot some items:

piratechris is 8 years old and reads the blog every day.

The 17th street work is in bucktown, for those who know the area.

I don't think the new orleans area will ever be the same again and I don't think it will even look normal for at least 8+ years from now.

rxse7en - There is a very good help page for these 3D phase diagrams. I don't think I could explain it any better than the explanation on that page; there a just a few simple equations and many helpful diagrams there. Also you might be interested in the related Powerpoint presentation on the topic by Hart and Evans.
Posted By: rxse7en at 3:06 PM GMT on July 13, 2006.
I'm assuming that system is our Key's Blob and if I'm reading it correctly, this model is predicting it to become a warm core system and to intensify when it hits the high SSTs in the Gulf?

rxse7en - Your assumption above is correct, but note that the low only shows up in the 2006071300 CMCGLB analysis and forecast, and not in any other model runs at this time.
East wind (only 5 mph) at Havana with a 1018 mb pressure.


Nearly identical at Key West, so pressures aren't low, and aren't even strong, even North of the apparent center.


PirateChris' MOM,
Thanks for a Local's Perspective & Link.

~~~~~~~~Hearty Waves & Shouting ARRRRrrgh
to Our Swashbuckling LA Mateys! ☺
Gettin there real, not quite yet though.
Water off Africa is too cold for much of a Cape Verde at the moment, though I'd be watching that very closely in September.
Dr. Masters I have lived in southest La. all my 45 years. I was raised in NOLA, and for the last 25 years have resided just south of NOLA. Thanks to the long history of oil exploration in the marshes south of New Orleans, there was saltwater intrusion into the brackish-water marshes. These marshes, when healthy, use to actually protect NOLA from the direct storm surge of hurricanes. I have witnessed these marshes disappear over the last 30 years. There can be no real protection from hurricane surge until those marshes are restored, and that will take billions of dollars and at least 40 years to accomplish. In my opinion, that is why NOLA is DEAD, but just doesn't know it yet!
That's what I'm getting out of it too, dog. Also note that the CMC is the only model currently developing anything there, and has been bullish in the past. Something to watch, though.
Wow, fast responses there. lol
hey thanks to all who posted on the issue of Accuweather and the bill...I got alot of responses that is very informative and can be summarize completely and comprehensively...Thanks...
Dr. Masters, the levees are within my expertise as I illustrated a Time Magazine story a few months ago, and actually had a chance to sit and talk to Vom Hernden. The pumping stations have not been moved to the Lake, and all the repairs to the canals so far are temporary, although the cost is over a billion. In fact, one of the main local criticisms of the "temporary repair" is that if the new gates at the entrance to the canals are closed due to the approach of a tropical event, the temporary pumps are supposed to move water around the new gates will only be capable of perhaps 25% of the previous pumping capacity, leaving the possibiliy of flooding, especially in the Broodmoor and uptown areas that are drained by the massive pumps in the 17th Street Canal.

According to Dr. Von Hernden a slow moving Category 3 hitting New Orleans would probably breach the west side of the Industrial Canal, because the East Side, which was breached and flooded the Lower Ninth Ward and St. Bernard Parish, has been heavily fortified.

A Category 3 hitting near the Morgan City area would flood the West Bank, which was largely unflooded during Katrina and has 700,000 residents. Needless to say, a Category 4 hitting anywhere from Morgan City to the mouth of the river, which is still the worst scenario, could still have catastrophic results.

As far as the Corps goes, these is definitely a plan for extended protection, as a plan was rejected in the 60's as being to expensive, and replaced by the Category 3 "standard project hurricane" protection that was authorized by Congress at that time. The estimate on a new Category 4 protection will supposedly start at $20 billion dollars, and involve fighting the surge as far away from the population as possible.

So far there has only been a mandate by Congress to raise the levees an additional three feet to support the "standard project hurricane" Category 3 designation made in the 50's.

Hope this clarifies things a bit.
Thanks, everyone. Guygee, I'll read through those links today.

B
Good Morning Guys....
Yes there seems to be a llc with that wave off Africa. Also, the CMC and GFS do something with this wave, but not anything to speak of.
i got the taiwan radar image up on my blog now, its pretty cool. Bilis has some nice banding.

Posted By: EdMahmoud (65.67.13.50) at 11:02 AM EDT on July 13, 2006.
I just noticed that Christopher Landsea co-wrote the Bud advisory w/ Lixion Avila. I wonder if he is training up to make the move from research to prognostication.

He is pretty widely published, per a quick internet search.



I talked to Chris about this in April, and he is planning on spending only about 10-20% of his time as an operational forecaster. He spends a huge amount of time travelling, going to meetings.

Posting big images
Please do try to keep any images you post in the comments less than 200K, in respect for dial-up users. I can go in and modify comments (like I did for the huge Bud animation above) if someone lets me know (thanks, WSI).

Thanks mrpember and piratechris for the update on the New Orleans floodgates, I'll include that info in my afternoon update.

Jeff Masters
Here's a pic of the wave in the Eastern Atlantic.

[URL=http://imageshack.us][IMG]http://img486.imageshack.us/img486/6598/aaaaaaart4do.jpg[/IMG][/URL]
Here's a pic of the wave in the Eastern Atlantic.
[URL=http://imageshack.us][IMG]http://img486.imageshack.us/img486/6598/aaaaaaart4do.jpg[/IMG][/URL]
75. WSI
Here hurricane23...


76. WSI
Dang, I used the wrong tag.. LOL!

Here...
Here's a pic of the wave in the Eastern Atlantic... Hope this works!

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Got it...LOL!Thanks.
I think someone is link impaired. lol
Posted By: JeffMasters (Admin) at 11:51 AM EDT on July 13, 2006.


I feel as if God himself just spoke to us.
83. WSI
"I think someone is link impaired"

Yeah, caused by being sleep impaired, LOL!
GulfScotsman

I lol'd.
Clear! "" "" Clear! "" ""
We have life!
LOL RedMosquito. I felt the same way.
Since when did they start selling naming rights to Hurricanes and Typhoons??? (hurricane BUD???) Oh well, anything to make a buck LOL
Yes, that was a good one.
Hurricane Bud...The King of Cyclones.
It is so wrong that the name 'Bud' gets wasted on an EastPac storm.
Now I can't get those crazy frogs out of my head!!!
okay, I'm really getting confused regarding the "thing" floating around the keys - one minute it is nothing, then it is maybe something ...

...Sunday is currently forecast (Tampa Bay area) to be one of the best days we've had in a while - low winds, low surf, no rain, medium-rare steaks on the grill (you have to pay for the upgrade on your WU account to get that in your forecast!) - an overall perfect day.

Is there a chance this thing in the Keys can make a run at being something that would ruin that perfect Sunday?
93. IKE
Maybe they can name the "B" storm in the Atlantic...Bud Light.
thanks for that Dr. Jeff
96. IKE
Think it's going w or w/nw of the Tampa area...
...less filling
___ ________
/\ \=/ .\=/.../ ribbit!\
\/ /=\___./=\ \_ribbit!/
stormy2day, if and its a gigantic if, that system developed almost certainly a west gulf storm, maybe even just mexico w/ the strong subtropical ridge to its north.
Speaking of Chris Landsea
http://www.lavoisier.com.au/papers/articles/landsea.html

Tx
So could the absence of tropical activity, dry air if you will, be considered Bud Dry?

Why ask why?
nevermind that, it looked different in the text box.
thanks tx - not that I would wish anything in your direction but if it takes a north or nw heading then it would likely suck any moisture with it?

I don't know about that RedMosquito, but when its down to a light breexe it could be Bud Light
Dr. Masters, I know you must be a busy man.... and I for one am amazed the time and effort you take addressing this blog. Just wanted to thank you for providing us such a wonderful forum. Your efforts truly are greatly appreciated by many!

Kudo's to Dr Masters! :)
Key West radar shows some slight rotation to the blob, no?

B
ditto what thelmores said
Stormy2day, probably it would be strong enough for that, also my gut(and though a person who studies storms, not a forecaster) is that mexico, so it would be far south.
Hi Everyone!
thanks again tx - i'll put the steaks and suds on the grocery list!

oh and, don't discount the gut - it is amazing how accurate our own instincts can be - sometimes it is more an issue of learning how to hear what they are trying to tell us.
why are there interstates in hawaii?


"Because a Day without the GOMEX SSTs is like a Day without Sunshine!"
115. IKE
Then then Atlantic "C" storm could be Coors.

Now the winds have shifted to the west/southwest at Key West...an impressive line of storms is forming east of key west...
EdMahmoud thanks for the link from my earlier question..
Well, 1018 mb isn't encouraging for development of the former Bahama's blob now by Key West.

But, I think we all remember that when Hurricane Alicia was upgraded from a tropical depression to a tropical storm, its minimum pressure was only 1014 mb.


So I'm in the highly unlikely but not totally impossible camp here.
Stormy2day, two words "PORK projects", actually no real idea, they obviously need interstate quality roads, but still to call them that is hilarious.
Gulf, that's an impressive hurricane you've posted there.
Buffet's down there under the clouds somewhere..looking for his lost shaker of salt.
EdMahmoud, possible, and Alicia was a Hurricane 18hrs after that. I remmber the glass falling from the skyscrapers, probbaly the 1st time a major city with those types of building waas hit.
good one stormy, I suppose they should actually call it an intrastate - no? Actually intraisland as the two of them are only on the southern part of Oahu.
EdMahmoud, actually the best part of Alicia was the 5Am, no chance of development to 11Am becoming much better oorgonize, 5pm storm.
A small middle level low center may be forming
about 150 nm west of the Cape Verde Islands.
i find it easy to understand why non-english speaking folks resist learning english ...
we park in driveways, drive on parkways, pay a toll to travel on freeways and have interstates on an island.

...sorry i digress from topical discussion, i'm in glee about the sunny outlook for the weekend weather so will scoot out of here and do a little non-hurricane planning!
We could even have a VIAGRA. for V. There'd be a bamby boom 9months after(actually during such eveents there really is).
Posted By: Tazmanian at 4:52 PM GMT on July 13, 2006.
A small middle level low center may be forming
about 150 nm west of the Cape Verde Islands.


Is this a personal opinion or a fact?
even if it is a "fact".... thats a looooong way out there! LOL
I don't know if there is a low, but this wave is well developed, and even though the convection will probably die out, we should keep an eye on it.
132. jeffB
If you're wondering why Hawaii needs interstates, just wait until Inouye teams up with Don Young and Ted Stevens. Construction of the H-380 spur to San Francisco will commence shortly thereafter.
OK, SOMEBODY SLAP ME!

i swear i can "almost" see rotation starting on the key west composite and floater 2

ok, i'll get back to work now! :D
it actually could be candidate for developement around 50 later on, thus is of course just speculation. The fact that it won't devlope WAY out there actually makes it an area of more concern.
135. pwd
Thanks for your insights into SE Louisiana's flood problems. As a resident of NO, I gained more info from your comments than I usually get from local sources. Perhaps thats because theres so much confusion down here. The ACOE is behind schedule in construction of the flood gates on teh 17th St and London Ave canal floodgates. Evidently delayed install of adequate pumping solutions. Original earthen burm levees in St Bernard have been restored but not neccessarily improved. As long as the surge can come straight up the MRGO, we've been told these levees are useless. And MRGO is still open to traffic. There are webcams showing progress of levee repairs but they;re notinformative as to details. see www.wwltv.com

thanks
Just got the discussion,
"A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 15-20 KT. LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS CLEARLY EVIDENT
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. "
is that an ULL starting to form near jacksonville?
theelmores, you and taz are good.
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
POSSIBLE SMALL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH NORTHWEST
OF KEY WEST WHERE THERE IS A LARGER AREA OF RAINFALL SOUTH OF
26N...NAMELY WITHIN 180 N

Tx
Not sure what that is off of Jax, but there's a ton of dry air coming up in behind it.
What happened to all weather friends, i just tried it? didnt take me there. thanks
i posted links to visible loops of a cape verde disturbance on my blog. this is the first interesting thing since "almost beryl".
Dear God !!!!!!!!!

There is a well-defined area of circulation around a three hundred mile in diameter Eyewall in the Western gulf and the Bay of Campeche.
Low wind shear for our blob:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/atlantic/winds/shear/20060713.1400.goes-12.shear.wind.cimss.x.jpg
Another Naso report! I'm checking it out!

Calm down wetdance, that's just an ULL. It is harmless.
Plus it is pushing westward towards Mexico.
Allright Naso time! =]
Nolesjeff-AllWeatherFriends is temporarily down. It will be back. Just keep checking.
Anything new going on today?
Wet you crack me up...BTW who would be idiotic enough to PAY to visit Bastard's column? NOT ME
But, if the ULL moves out fast enough the Keys thing could possibly develop.
"theelmores, you and taz are good."

thanks tx..... i guess! LOL

even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while! :D

well, imho, if "something" does develop, looks like the big easy is in for a little rainfall... course this is JUST an opinion.......
Is there a better place to get satellite imagery of the East Atlantic than the METEOSAT 8 that's on the NOAA page?

Thanks.
According to Naso, we have to keep watching the East Caribbean wave (which he says is no longer an invest at this time), as well as the area in the SE Gulf of Mexico in case it may want to try to do something. He also mentioned the new wave off the coast of Africa and said it looks fairly healthy. He was noting that the long-rage GFS outlook calls for a Cape Verde-type system developing and heading west, and high pressure building in which would prevent recurvature. Something to definitely keep an eye on over the next week or two.
I'm not saying the Keys thing is well defined. Just that, IMHO, if the ULL moves away and the thunderstoms persist it "could" develop in the next day or two.
162. code1
Reminder: Naso is 16-17 years old.
Thanks Oakland
JP - Maybe Dr. M is looking at the dry air/African dust and doesn't think there's enough moisture for serious development.
"Why are they so different?"

kinda like republican vs. democrat? they both think they are right! LOL

thats what makes tropical weather so interesting for me..... because "sometimes" storms form, when there are supposed to be none! ;)

never know whats around that next corner! ;)
Canesinlowplaces

Link

u can also animate it....updates every 15-30mins
No problem, glad to help.
Thanks 456. That's what I've been looking for.
I pay to visit Bastardi's column.


Well, not just his column, all the columns, and videos, and models, and radars with bells and whistles like VILS and stuff.

The wave near Africa looks impressive. Hope it will survive and has a change for develop. In Puerto Rico were are having some rain from the wave in the Caribbean but is not a great thing
Whatever is in the keys doesen't have a chance with all the dry air overtaking it.
there is nothing in the keys
I hope in his update Dr. Masters will talk about the dry air coming in east of GoM blob. Hopefully that inhibits development. It appears that low shear and very high SST's await this thing.

The low shear area isn't huge and there's dry air around, so development's no sure thing. If that dry air doesn't come in and the shear is low, this thing could mushroom quickly over the loop current.

What do you people think? Will the circulation around that upper level low steer the blob north a bit? Or is it far enough away to be a non-factor?
It's going to be sitting in the middle of a desert before too long
is it me or is the windshear around puerto rico shifting alot lately
Hey Hey guys,

I was reading some of the comments fom earlier this morning:

stormy, how do you 'kill' images with firefox?

Oh, and people still use dialup? Wow!
I dunno JP, whatever they are talking about in here, I haven't looked. I am assuming the T-Storms in the Keys, someone said a surface low was possibly forming.
Oh Lordy!!!!!!!

Given the size of the Eye of this storm don't you think they should be issuing warnings at least for areas inland as far as Omaha and Kansas City? I am getting quite concerned.
No wetdance, there is nothing out there to be that concerned about at this time. Just weather speculation here. What you see in that WV image is an ULL, the area of interest is to it's east. At least that is what I think you are reffering to.

SJ
Posted By: txweather at 5:16 PM GMT on July 13, 2006.
theelmores, you and taz are good.
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
POSSIBLE SMALL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH NORTHWEST
OF KEY WEST WHERE THERE IS A LARGER AREA OF RAINFALL SOUTH OF
26N...NAMELY WITHIN 180 N

Tx


That is what I was reffering too JP.

Good to see you WJ.

For those who have not seen, StormJunkie.com-models, imagery, wind data, preparedness info and much more, including some great WU blogger storm video.

SJ
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH...THAT WAS IN THE W BAHAMAS AND OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA YESTERDAY HAS TRACKED WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE BOUNDARY LIES ALONG 29N86W 26N83W
23N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 26N. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
POSSIBLE SMALL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH NORTHWEST
OF KEY WEST
WHERE THERE IS A LARGER AREA OF RAINFALL SOUTH OF
26N...NAMELY WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE
OTHER FEATURE IN THE GULF...IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS
NOW CENTERED NEAR 23N94W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ON THE MOIST EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW
ALLOWING THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA TO CLEAR OUT.
188. IKE
That quote of a possible surface low is mentioned on the 2:05 PM EDT tropical weather discussion.
I think Wetdance is being overly sarcastic.
"a small surface low" may be hard to Recognize.... even to a trained professional! LOL
Just wanted to make sure quake, did not want anyone to be worried for no reason :)

So what is up with 96L? Dang thing still hangin on.

JP, as for Naso, no matter what his age he is very bright person. The difference between him and the Dr is that he can afford to speculate a little more. I do like the fact that he states his points as speculation and not fact. He just gives a decent understanding of different outcomes.

SJ
Now that TD2 report posted by Gulf is all-mighty current.
WilJax In Firefox 1.5.x: Tools->Options->Content->Uncheck Load Images box.
Back to work. :(

See ya'll this afternoon :)

SJ
Afternoon guygee.
197. F5
Interesting...The past few comments I have made in Dr. Master's blog have mysteriously disappeared.

While I don't wish a tropical system on anyone, we are so desparate for rain in N TX that we are probably going to need a system to develop in the Gulf and head up to TX. Otherwise, nothing may break this drought.
Hey SJ! I've been meaning to compliment you on your blog, some great info there!
Turtle, I agree that devlopement is unlikely from the Keys system, and the the East Atlantic is more interesting(though I would almost give 20:1) against development.

But don't worry about blog mongering, i know for a fact that there were people(some aren't there now, I honestly am not knowledgable about the group there now)),some at the hurricane center that make people on this blog look like pessimist when it came to that.

No matter our level of knowledge you can't but think, hummmm maybe. Yes in your mind you know the odds are hopeless, but you can't help but dream and imagine. The funny thing is that cyclone genesis is SO MYSTERIOUS that there's always the chance. Somebody once asked me if watching storms is as interesting to me know that I know much more. The answer is for movement yes, but for development and intensity no. Because in those domains its still wide open.

Turtle thank you for you insight, it brings back memories of when I had sources there.

TX
I definatly feel for you guys up there F5, can't imagine what you guys are going through.
There appears to be another UUl over central north fl? Moving south west - ssw??. The circ is an area directly between Cuba an fl in the straight?. Yea its looking more promising here of course just after I get started on a huge outdoor project.
The remains of 96L seem to be flaring up.
txweather - Nice post. I would never wish a hurricane on anyone, but I find some of the guilt trips and mocking that goes on here distasteful, just because I am interested in watching tropical weather that others find uninteresting.

I don't think any current model runs are even initializing any low near the Keys right now, but apparently there is a weak one forming...so I watch and wait.
Nice link Scotsman...especially since it doesn't work :-P
You can see the broad circulation on the GOM visible satellite too.
Pressures still WAY to high - some one smart check north central 82 w 30 n uul? Looks like more than shear. Moving towards the gulf big bend area.
F5, i hate to give bad news but, i see no real help to be had. Even if it developed or just stayed a trough it should head west and at worst effect deep south texas. (no guarentess of course, but that seeme reasonable). The 2 easy forecast are wehen you have a strong high or a strong trough. In this case we have the strong high.
Ok that works...but if only you could animate the image once it's zoomed in...
Thanks SJ, good to see you too. Excellent site btw, it's a good consolidation of information and I will certainly be visiting it everyday.

Anyway, we're getting into the time of year where Cape Verde storms develop and cross the Atlantic. There's a tropical wave off Africa right now that looks to be pretty healthy, and it's in an environment in which it could develop further. If that wave makes its way a little bit more north then I wouldn't be surprised to see a TD very soon.

The more organized that thing becomes the better chance it will have to cross the Atlantic and enter the eastern Caribbean as a strong wave, TD, or even a named storm. It's pretty obvious that conditions are beginning to line up in a way that'll soon produce storms.



Hey guygee, it's been a while. Thanks for the firefox info too, I didn't know that was possible with the pics. Yet another reasons why IE stinks.
Could be a high moving across Cedar key pressure is high but dropping. Doesnt look right for just a high something else in there moving down the state west side just north of Tampa bay.
Wow that wave looks good. I would give it another 24 hours and see if it falls apart.
219. IKE
I have to admit....stepping back from my computer screen and watching a visible loop..you can see a spin west of Key West, Florida. Not saying there's anything to it...but there does appear to be a circulation there.
Willjax, actually right now that wave is more than far enough north. Looking at the satellite, if there was ground confirmation, I'd almost consider this a depression. that being said, it is unlikely it could maintain itself for long.
221. IKE
Yup...just west of the keys....



not much on the radar yet..... guess we'll see what happens over the next couple hours.....

as the ull pulls to th sse, conditions only improve west of florida......
WillJax - Good to hear from you. You hit the nail on the head about IE, I switched from Netscape to Mozilla/Firefox in an early beta release. Mozilla Thunderbird is very good for email, too. I've imported all of my old elm/pine email archives into Thunderbird very easily. It serves as an archive for me full of attached documents going back many years.
I've lost my links to ship reports, could somebody check the east atlantic(long shot, but curious)
225. IKE
The Dr. has a new blog.
WillJax...I agree with you.....conditions appear to be lineing up.....

Guys do you think this will be a 2004 august....we went from Alex to hermine..then ivan

this year can do the same..God forbid..I feel for all of florida....Doesnt appear to me that the Gulf coast will get any action this year.

do you agree?
Thanks Ike. Otherwise I would be here talking to myself for the next hour (or am I already? LOL)
I've lost my links to ship reports, could somebody check the east atlantic(long shot, but curious)
I've lost my links to ship reports, could somebody check the east atlantic(long shot, but curious)
just checking the cimss around the southern east caribbean and it seems "the little blob that could" is in a more marginally favorable area and has gotten bolder
Don't say that 456, lol. I think you just made the hair stand up on the back of the preverbial insurance company neck.


looks like we are getting some shear from the nw..... if the shear get high enough, it may "expose" the fact that there "appears" to be a circulation below those high clouds.....

guess we'll see! :)