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Gulf of Mexico disturbance may develop; Chris a hurricane; record Duluth flooding

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:03 PM GMT on June 21, 2012

An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico is bringing sporadic heavy rains to Western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and winds of 20 - 25 mph to surrounding ocean areas. This disturbance will need to be watched for development as it drifts slowly northward at about 5 mph into the Central Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. The disturbance is poorly organized, and has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots over the region. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and plenty warm to support formation of a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance entering the Southern Gulf of Mexico.

Forecast for Gulf of Mexico disturbance
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Northern Gulf of Mexico; this dry air is probably too far away to significantly interfere with development. I expect we will see an increase in the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity today as a result of less interference from dry air. By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday. A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday. The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that this through will not be strong enough to pull the disturbance northeastwards across Florida, and the disturbance will instead linger in the Gulf of Mexico for many days, giving it time to develop into a tropical depression next week. The UKMET and NOGAPS models predict a more westward drift, with the disturbance affecting the Mexico/Texas border region 6 - 7 days from now. At this point, we can't rule out any location in the Gulf being affected by this system, though the Gulf coast of Florida has the highest probability of seeing impacts. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. This is a reasonable forecast, and the odds will probably rise by Friday, and I give the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Chris.

Chris reaches hurricane strength; not a threat to land
Hurricane Chris has managed to intensify and form an eye-like feature surrounded by intense thunderstorms with very cold tops, despite the fact the storm is over cool waters of 22°C. NHC puts Chris at hurricane strength with 75 mph winds making it the first hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season. Chris attained hurricane strength unusually far to the north (41.1°N) for a June storm; only Hurricane One of 1893 was a June hurricane at a more northernly point (44°N) than Chris. Chris is headed northeastwards, out to sea, and will not trouble any land areas. Only twice before, in 1887 and 1959, has the third storm of the season formed earlier than June 20. Formation of three tropical storms so early in the year is not necessarily a harbinger of an active season; 1959 was close to average, with 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes (average is 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes.) Unusual levels of early season activity in the Caribbean and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles usually portends a very active hurricane season, but this year's storms have not formed in this region. Alberto, Beryl, and Chris all formed off the U.S. East Coast.


Figure 3. The St. Louis river upstream from Duluth, Minnesota reached its highest flood height on record this morning, 6.1' above flood stage. The river rose over ten feet in 24 hours. Image credit: NOAA.

Record flooding in Duluth, Minnesota
Flood waters have crested in Duluth, Minnesota this Thursday morning, and are slowly falling, in the wake of the city's all-time record 24-hour rainstorm. A series of "training" thunderstorms that followed the same path passed over a wide swath of Northern Minnesota between noon Tuesday and noon Wednesday, dropping 7.20" of rain on the city. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, this far surpasses the previous 24-hour record rainfall for Duluth, the 5.79" that fell on August 22 - 23, 1978. Two rivers in the Duluth area, the Nemadji and St. Louis, hit their highest flood heights on record Thursday morning, causing destructive flooding. Sadly, major flooding occurred at the Duluth zoo, washing a seal into a neighboring street, and killing at least eleven zoo animals.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Station 42363
Shell Oil
Location: 28.160N 89.22WDate: Fri, 22 Jun 2012 08:00:00 UTC

Winds: ENE (60°) at 21.4 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in and fallingAir Temperature: 79.0 F
Dew Point: 71.1 F
Station 42001
NDBC
Location: 25.888N 89.658W
Date: Fri, 22 Jun 2012 08:50:00 UTC

Winds: ENE (70°) at 7.8 kt gusting to 9.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 6.9 ftDominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.74 in and fallingAir Temperature: 81.0 F
Dew Point: 77.4 F
Water Temperature: 82.0 F
Good Morning All..went to Nhc before the blog this a.m...they may send recon out in the gulf this afternoon..maybe then there will finally be a COC to track!
Quoting Mamasteph:
Good Morning All..went to Nhc before the blog this a.m...they may send recon out in the gulf this afternoon..maybe then there will finally be a COC to track!


Morning Steph. Excellent name by the way. ;) I sure don't see the coc where they say it is. But I'll take their word for it for now. The recon should clear that up. I hope they go in today. Maybe it will be easier to find when the sun goes up.
Good morning all. I'm not seeing a CoC anywhere near the north of Yucatan, looking at the spiral bands, it seems like a center would be most likely to form in the Yucatan Channel.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Morning Steph. Excellent name by the way. ;) I sure don't see the coc where they say it is. But I'll take their word for it for now. The recon should clear that up. I hope they go in today. Maybe it will be easier to find when the sun goes up.
Tyvm!.Either way it goes you or I will get something from this..well we are already..as I am in Fla...lol..it will be abolutely crazy if they do find 2 Coc's..one on your side and 1 on mine and decide this isn't 1 broad system but the combination of 2..lol...this season I am ready for anything that isn't "in the books"..lol..afterall it is 2012...lol..morning humor..
Quoting Mamasteph:
Tyvm!.Either way it goes you or I will get something from this..well we are already..as I am in Fla...lol..it will be abolutely crazy if they do find 2 Coc's..one on your side and 1 on mine and decide this isn't 1 broad system but the combination of 2..lol...this season I am ready for anything that isn't "in the books"..lol..afterall it is 2012...lol..morning humor..


I been wondering about if there are 2 cocs too. Their discussion from earlier says its at where we cant see it. Lol. But you're right I think this will be a mess for everyone around the gulf.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 22.5N89.5W AT 22/00Z.
WINDS OF 20 KT ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW CENTER. THE CIRCULATION
IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE TAMPA
BAY AREA WITH ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM SHOWING THE LOW PRES...POSSIBLE A TROPICAL CYCLONE...MOVING
SLOWLY N TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. NE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED W OF THE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GULF WITH SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BRING A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE GULF DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR NOW...EXPECT WINDS
REACHING 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 9-10 FT. INTERESTS ALONG THE
ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Quoting TampaCat5:
Good morning all. I'm not seeing a CoC anywhere near the north of Yucatan, looking at the spiral bands, it seems like a center would be most likely to form in the Yucatan Channel.


The vorticity in the channel is at the 500mb level.
I will be on and off today monitoring it..just recupperating from surgery on Weds..so Hagd AtHomeinTexas we'll see ya later...
JFV will be happy about this... Florida landfall on the 6z GFS

Across Fl. and it looked to me like they initialized the low from the right place. If the NHC has it right. :)

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Morning Steph. Excellent name by the way. ;) I sure don't see the coc where they say it is. But I'll take their word for it for now. The recon should clear that up. I hope they go in today. Maybe it will be easier to find when the sun goes up.


yours is stefanie thogh!
Quoting Mamasteph:
I will be on and off today monitoring it..just recupperating from surgery on Weds..so Hagd AtHomeinTexas we'll see ya later...


Ok. Hope you heal soon. :)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
JFV will be happy about this... Florida landfall on the 6z GFS



that trugh is way too deep
2517. LargoFl
...........................................good morning everyone..coffee is on!...everyone watching the gulf these next 3 days..I hope..warnings will go up sometime this weekend i bet...have a great one
DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL FORECAST POINTS IN OUR FORECAST WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY
THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN OVER THE GULF AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF TO
POSSIBLY DEVELOP TODAY OR THIS WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A
DEEPENING OF THIS POSSIBLE LOW OVER THE GULF AND TRACK THE LOW
NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...EAST FLOW WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG THROUGH SUNDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME
TIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI COASTAL WATERS BY
SATURDAY. DEPENDING OF THE POSITION OF THE LOW TO 90W...EAST FLOW
WILL PERSIST AND ELEVATE WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER WILL EXPAND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH MAY CREATE A
DOWN GLIDE OF AIR ACROSS LAND AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA...RESULTING IN WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS. AT THE SAME...DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND NEAR THE
POSSIBLE LOW...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT AREAS OVER AND SOUTH OF TIDAL LAKES...COASTAL AREAS
AND COASTAL WATERS. ERGO...OFFICE IS LEANING TO GFS THINKING WITH
A STALL SYSTEM BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
PLAINS STALLING THE POSSIBLE LOW OVER THE GULF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING...STRENGTHENING AND
POSSIBLE TRACK DUE TO THE INITIAL WEAK STEERING WINDS NEXT WEEK.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY. EXPECT A SCATTERED CLOUD DECK AROUND 4K
FEET THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. 13/MH

.MARINE...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE KEPT CAUTION FLAGS GOING FOR MOST OF THE
GULF COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS 15-20 KTS AND SEAS
4-6 FEET EXPECTED. AFTER SATURDAY AFTERNOON THINGS COULD GET MORE
INTERESTING. RIGHT NOW MODELS DIFFER IN TRACK AND STRENGTH...HOWEVER
ALL MODELS DO SHOW A LOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES THE COAST OF LOUISIANA
SATURDAY EVENING. IF THIS IS THE CASE HIGHER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
WILL BE EXPECTED AND AT LEAST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
THAT ALSO DEPENDS IF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT DEVELOPED INTO A NAMED
SYSTEM BY THEN. RIGHT NOW HAVE LEANED MORE WITH A GFS SOLUTION FOR
THIS PACKAGE. MODELS SHOW WINDS PEAKING DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT TO
SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD. SWELLS OF 7-11 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
20-60 NM WATERS THIS PERIOD WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 TO 25
KTS. MARINERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF AS ANY DEVELOPMENT COULD GREATLY
ALTER THE WINDS/SEAS FORECAST. 13/MH

&&

From N.O. fcst discussion this morning
Quoting weatherh98:


yours is stefanie thogh!


You got me there. :P
Quoting yonzabam:


The vorticity in the channel is at the 500mb level.
I guess the mid and lower level circulations will have to duke it out! :)
Quoting weatherh98:


that trugh is way too deep
Way to deep for what? Only about two weeks ago, an extremely strong trof brought a cool front through Florida and lowered temps to near record lows.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


You got me there. :P


I sawyou liked levis stuff..im NOT a stalker
2523. LargoFl
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Way to deep for what? Only about two weeks ago, an extremely strong trof brought a cool front through Florida and lowered temps to near record lows.


yes but there is a ridge squeezing on both sides i dont think it can get in that deep
2525. WxLogic
Good Morning...
Quoting weatherh98:


yes but there is a ridge squeezing on both sides i dont think it can get in that deep
ughh today is going to be a long day
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
ughh today is going to be a long day


they always are
Quoting weatherh98:


I sawyou liked levis stuff..im NOT a stalker


NP. Was hoping I didn't forget some conversation we had. phew! Lol.
what are the chances that they will say 96 will hit florida and it really wont?
96L looks about the same now as last night... NHC will likely stay with 70% at 8AM

2532. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
517 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-230000-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
517 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW...HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT FOR LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
BEING WATCHED CLOSELY FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OR
STRENGTH OF THIS POTENTIAL TROPICAL LOW...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THE BEST
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG COASTAL ZONES AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG AREA BEACHES WILL POTENTIALLY INCREASE
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THOSE WITH BEACH PLANS FOR THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK ARE URGED TO KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST RIP
CURRENT FORECASTS AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FROM
THIS LOW. CURRENT FORECASTS ARE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TO DEVELOP BY SATURDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...HOWEVER STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEKEND. MARINERS ARE URGED TO
KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS WITH REGARDS TO THIS
POTENTIAL STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ECMWF 0z 96 hour


2535. Cat5hit
Good Morning.

I see we have our first threat to the US Mainland for the Atlantic.
Quoting ILOVESTORMS23:
what are the chances that they will say 96 will hit florida and it really wont?


40/100 they say it hits florida

40/100 it hits florida

20/100 they say it hits florida and it doesnt

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
96L looks about the same now as last night... NHC will likely stay with 70% at 8AM



prolly

anti yclone is off center

Quoting ILOVESTORMS23:
florida might get 1/10 inch of rain and maybe 7 to 10 mph winds that should be all


yup i dont think it will hit florida
2540. WxLogic
There's still a degree of disorganization. The 850MB VORT still well displaced from the 500MB VORT where the deeper convection exist to the E/SE.

850MB:



500MB:



At low levels, I'm not quite seeing yet a well defined center, but interesting enough on the NE Yucatan Peninsula one of the WX reporting stations is showing NW winds, which if it holds it could put the center closer to the deep convection and stronger 500MB VORT.
Quoting ILOVESTORMS23:
florida might get 1/10 inch of rain and maybe 7 to 10 mph winds that should be all

We already had an inch of rain yesterday from this disturbance.
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-034

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 22/1600Z
D. 23.0N 89.0W
E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A MISSION
AT 23/1800Z NEAR 24.5N 89.0W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

The boys from Biloxi !
2544. LargoFl
Quoting TampaCat5:

We already had an inch of rain yesterday from this disturbance.
yes we had some good rain here last night finally..going to be an on and off rain event here this weekend,then we see where this whatever it becomes..goes,my guess is from tampa north to the big bend..we shall see
wow!! look at the tops on the t.storms..-80F
2546. LargoFl
2547. LargoFl
.............................not even IN the 7 day forecast in Texas
Quoting LargoFl:

This thing looks kind of huge, I wonder if it can consolidate.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
523 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK IT`S WAY TOWARDS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH TEXAS. THIS
SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART BEFORE
REACHING CENTRAL LOUISIANA. OUT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP. THIS AREA IS BETTER DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. MARINE INTEREST
SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF.

CLOSER TO HOME...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS THE LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA... MID 70S
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND NEAR 80 AT THE COAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT NOSES OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST AFTN TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY RISE IN RESPONSE...WITH LOCATIONS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S THIS WEEKEND. FOR THOSE OUTSIDE BE SURE TO DRINK
OF FLUIDS...TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS AND APPLY PLENTY OF SUNSCREEN.

FOR NEXT WEEK THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF WILL BE THE
FORECAST ISSUE. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE AREA MOVES NORTHWARD. AS OF NOW MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE... DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW. THE FINALLY TRACK
MOVEMENT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WORK IT`S SELF OUT.

&&

What time are the Hurricane Hunter going out??
2551. LargoFl
Quoting TampaCat5:

This thing looks kind of huge, I wonder if it can consolidate.
it may, they say its going to be a slow mover,uncertain of where to go, so all weekend we will be guessing and watching it closely
2552. LargoFl
7.26" of rain at my Cocorahs station for June already. Not bad.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
JFV will be happy about this... Florida landfall on the 6z GFS



+10,000 LOL
This morning's weather briefing (Miami):
Link
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That guy is a troll... He's been on here before just ignore him.


I don't think he is. What way do you think 96L go
What time are the Hurricane Hunter going out??
Good morning. This is the story that will continue for Puerto Rico and the records keep going by the tubes.

.FIRE WEATHER...SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT OVR THE WEEKEND AS NARROW
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN RESULTING IN STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THIS ALSO TO COINCIDE WITH A SIG DROP
IN HUMIDITIES/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND ALSO WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDS. GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE ON SUN WHEN AREA WILL BE
UNDER CONVERGENT SIDE OF TROF AXIS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
AND PW VALUES BELOW TO 2SD BELOW NORMAL. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE NEXT
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL HELP
DESICCATE BOTH LIVE AND DEAD FUELS WITH CONTINUED HIGH FIRE
DANGER.


&&

.CLIMATE...YESTERDAY MARKED THE 23RD CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH MAXT AOA
90F AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT. THIS RANKS AS THE FIFTH LONGEST STREAK
NOW TIED WITH 1983. THE LONGEST STREAK WAS IN 1981 WHEN THERE WERE
35 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. SO FAR THIS YEAR...THERE HAVE BEEN 26 DAYS WITH
MAXT AOA 90F AND THE AVERAGE FOR A YEAR IS 36.3 DAYS. THE MONTH WITH
THE MOST 90F DEG DAYS WAS AUG OF 1982 WHEN THERE WERE 30 DAYS. JUNE
2012 HAS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT TYING THAT RECORD.

SO FAR THIS MONTH THERE HAVE BEEN 6 DAYS WITH MINT AOA 80F AND THE
AVERAGE FOR JUNE IS 0.8 WHILE ON AVERAGE THERE ARE 5.1 DAYS IN ANY
GIVEN YEAR. THE JUNE WITH THE MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS WAS 1983 WITH 7.
THE YEAR WITH MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS WAS 2009 WHEN 59 WERE RECORDED.

JUNE 2012 ALSO CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD PACE TO BE THE WARMEST JUNE
ON RECORD AND THE WARMEST MONTH OF ANY YEAR ON RECORD WARMER THAN
ANY JULY OR AUG WITH AN AVG TEMP SO FAR OF 85.8F DEGS.
Quoting weatherh98:


I don't think he is. What way do you think 96L go
That's because trolls can't recognize themselves.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What time are the Hurricane Hunter going out??


The NHC didn't say in the two
ok thx
Quoting weatherh98:


The NHC didn't say in the two
That's a long time to sit and spin.


2563. LargoFl
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Across Fl. and it looked to me like they initialized the low from the right place. If the NHC has it right. :)



My favorite local weather man really discussed the serious possibility that this could head to FL on Monday or Tues as TS.

I figure that since I am going to be house/dog sitting for my daughter and son-in-law (house with POOL) and I am taking Mon & Tues off from work to lay around the POOL and soak up some SUN and read, etc,....yep, we are gonna have the BIG ONE!! Of course, they are going to be even more upset since they are heading to the Keys for big family wedding...OUTDOOR wedding...with plans for snorkeling, fishing, etc. Sure would be nice for everyone (Texas especially) if this blob would just stay small & go NW and provide benefical rains to the drought stricken SW.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
That's because trolls can't recognize themselves.


I'm NOT a troll.
Never have trolled.
Never will troll.
Just a guy who wants to be a meteorologist.
2566. WxLogic
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What time are the Hurricane Hunter going out??


The HH goes out at 16Z (or 12PM Eastern). Should arrive at the expected center by 18Z (or 2PM Eastern).
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
ok thx


Anytime. So where do you think 96L will go
Hang in there TropicsPR. I know how trying heatwaves can be. Hopefully yours won't last much longer. :)
Quoting LargoFl:
it may, they say its going to be a slow mover,uncertain of where to go, so all weekend we will be guessing and watching it closely
This is looking bad- for the storm, that is.
Quoting WxLogic:


The HH goes out at 16Z (or 12PM Eastern). Should arrive at the expected center by 18Z (or 2PM Eastern).


Thank you!
2571. LargoFl
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
That's a long time to sit and spin.


.......yes and gulf water temps in the low to mid 80's
Quoting weatherh98:


I don't think he is. What way do you think 96L go

Probably a more Euro like path into Texas.
2573. LargoFl
Ok So exactly what makes one a TROLL. I dont know squat about tropical weather but I am trying to learn and I do somehow like the "excitement" of it.

I use the blog to help social skills. Note my handle.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Probably a more Euro like path into Texas.


That's what I was thinking. I may be a little biased. Mainly from my want for rain haha
Quoting weatherh98:


I'm NOT a troll.
Never have trolled.
Never will troll.
Just a guy who wants to be a meteorologist.

It's cool, I think the troll being referred to was ILOVESTORMS23, not us. Just a miscommunication. I've been on here 6 years. I don't come to troll.
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


My favorite local weather man really discussed the serious possibility that this could head to FL on Monday or Tues as TS.

I figure that since I am going to be house/dog sitting for my daughter and son-in-law (house with POOL) and I am taking Mon & Tues off from work to lay around the POOL and soak up some SUN and read, etc,....yep, we are gonna have the BIG ONE!! Of course, they are going to be even more upset since they are heading to the Keys for big family wedding...OUTDOOR wedding...with plans for snorkeling, fishing, etc. Sure would be nice for everyone (Texas especially) if this blob would just stay small & go NW and provide benefical rains to the drought stricken SW.


That's what I'm hoping as well. My husband who starts his vacation today figures it'll come here and mess his fishing plans up. Lol. But who knows. :)
2578. MoeWest
Doesn't look as healthy as yesterday. But that's my untrained eye. And convection can flare up any moment. Mmmmmmmm flareups....i think im gonna cook up some ribs tonight!
2579. LargoFl
Hi Everybody,


The models have been all over the place with this one... Link Short Wave Loop GOM
2581. Cat5hit
Could this be another Katrina in the making?

As in Strength/Size?
I do not see 96l on the Visible where they have it?? Link
Quoting Autistic2:
Ok So exactly what makes one a TROLL. I dont know squat about tropical weather but I am trying to learn and I do somehow like the "excitement" of it.

I use the blog to help social skills. Note my handle.

A troll is someone who makes statements purely to stir up controversy and get people riled up. Sometimes a contrairian (someone with a viewpoint that differs from the mainstream) can be confused for a troll.
Wanted to cook ribs today but woke up to more rain. Went from drought to moonsoon here in st aug.
Quoting Autistic2:
Ok So exactly what makes one a TROLL. I dont know squat about tropical weather but I am trying to learn and I do somehow like the "excitement" of it.

I use the blog to help social skills. Note my handle.


Neapolitan posted a great definition yesterday and it was roughly

A troll is one who a) doesn't agree with your analysis that a category 5 hurricane is going to hit your house or b) one who insults, repost random crap and will undoubtedly become the subject of the blog for the next 100 comments:)
Quoting Cat5hit:
Could this be another Katrina in the making?
A lot can change while this storm is stalled in the Gulf, but as of right now, conditions are not and don't appear to be conducive enough for a major hurricane to form.
2587. LargoFl
2588. icmoore
Good morning everyone. Reading back I see we still have lots of questions about our GOM low. Partly cloudy in Madeira Beach this morning. Beautiful red clouds at sunrise this morning. Yesterday's rain total was only .10". It is 78 degrees here, 90% humidity, Barometer 29.85", E wind 9 mph. Heading back for more coffee and something tells me I won't be getting much done today because this computer is holding me hostage :)
2589. Cat5hit
SFL - It's there on the new page. BTW< anyone else NOT like the new setup?
2590. Cat5hit
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
A lot can change while this storm is stalled in the Gulf, but as of right now, conditions are not and don't appear to be conducive enough for a major hurricane to form.


It is worrisome if a storm can organize in the bath waters known as the Gulf of Mexico.
Quoting icmoore:
Good morning everyone. Reading back I see we still have lots of questions about our GOM low. Partly cloudy in Madeira Beach this morning. Beautiful red clouds at sunrise this morning. Yesterday's rain total was only .10". It is 78 degrees here, 90% humidity, Barometer 29.85", E wind 9 mph. Heading back for more coffee and something tells me I won't be getting much done today because this computer is holding me hostage :)
I'm 15 miles to your NE and noticed the beautiful sunrise as well. Did you get up early enough to see the low fast moving clouds burning off? It was quite a site in front of the sunrise.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=4 2056
SSE winds freshening on the 056 buoy east of Yucatan. 23-29 knts.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station =42055
NNW winds on the west side of the Yucatan.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station =42001
E winds to the north of Yucatan....

hmmm...LLC must be somewhere in between...
Quoting MoeWest:
Doesn't look as healthy as yesterday. But that's my untrained eye. And convection can flare up any moment. Mmmmmmmm flareups....i think im gonna cook up some ribs tonight!


let's see what the visible shows us.
Quoting weatherh98:


Neapolitan posted a great definition yesterday and it was roughly

A troll is one who a) doesn't agree with your analysis that a category 5 hurricane is going to hit your house or b) one who insults, repost random crap and will undoubtedly become the subject of the blog for the next 100 comments:)


Got it.

That sounds more like an ______ to me.

Guess we can't really say that here so we use TROLL instead.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Hang in there TropicsPR. I know how trying heatwaves can be. Hopefully yours won't last much longer. :)


Thank you for the words. Let's see what happens so we can see rain and moderating temps.
2596. Grothar
Quoting TampaCat5:

A troll is someone who makes statements purely to stir up controversy and get people riled up. Sometimes a contrairian (someone with a viewpoint that differs from the mainstream) can be confused for a troll.

Making inane remarks, using handles that offend, impersonating someone else are also trollish behaviors. Finally, commenting on troll behavior is considered trollish. Best to flag and ignore a troll. They're easy to spot and can be quickly and easily ignored. Oh yeah, and making incendiary or insulting remarks out of the blue causing otherwise peaceful and relatively happy people to feel angry or annoyed is trollish behavior.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I do not see 96l on the Visible where they have it?? Link
There isn't any convection over the low level circulation. That large blow up of convection in the channel is a mid level feature.

But if the convection can sustain itself in the same place for long enough, the mid level vorticity may be able to make it to the surface and we could see a new llc form there.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 435 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA REMAINS DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES
CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED
STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
2600. Grothar
Quoting Chicklit:

Making inane remarks, using handles that offend, impersonating someone else are also trollish behaviors. Finally, commenting on troll behavior is considered trollish. Best to flag and ignore a troll. They're easy to spot and can be quickly and easily ignored.

:) You just incriminated yourself. ;)
this turned into a rather nice blog about weather who would have thunk it a few years back ,oh well hello everyone
2603. MoeWest
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Thank you for the words. Let's see what happens so we can see rain and moderating temps.


Yeah dry it is here also. Dryer than my grandmothers tamales. Need some rain. Every bush is turning brown.
2604. Grothar
Quoting Grothar:
-_-
Oh WOW!.Their is a potentially life threatening situation out in the Gulf and All the Today show can talk about is the concert on the plaza and the same old same old stuff that's been in the news like that trial with the perverted man and the teenage gun shooting with that crazy neighborhood watch man...And about a house fire that happened 7 months ago..Not even one mention of it.Al Rocker should be fired.
AH shoot, planned to go deep sea fishing off the coast of Naples Fl. next week, Not now, looks like movies and eating for me!
With an workout here and there!

Explained to my friends about the weather, they said I'm doom and gloom, it's not going to be bad weather, and I'm full of it!
We will see!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh WOW!.Their is a potentially life threatening situation out in the Gulf and All the Today show can talk about is the concert on the plaza and the same old same old stuff that's been in the news like that trial with the perverted man and the teenage gun shooting with that crazy neighborhood watch man...And about a house fire that happened 7 months ago..Not even one mention of it.Al Rocker should be fired.
You forgot about the bus patrol lady getting made fun of!


Wonder if that 60 knot reading is accurate.
As everyone's been saying, the LLC is clearly displaced from convection. The anticyclone is even further west.

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
You forgot about the bus patrol lady getting made fun of!
Oh yes her as well.
Quoting Grothar:

Wow, that's from the GFS, right?
2613. LargoFl
Quoting Grothar:
notice Tampa is in a line in every model run posting just about..my guess is from Tampa north to the panhandle whenever this thing gets its act together and moves, going to be an interesting start to the coming week
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA REMAINS DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES
CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED
STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.
2615. unf97
Quoting Cat5hit:
Good Morning.

I see we have our first threat to the US Mainland for the Atlantic.


That's not quite right. You overlooked Beryl which made landfall in Northeast Florida recently.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Wonder if that 60 knot reading is accurate.

Doesn't seem to be any convection in that area, odd. Is someone blowing on it? :p
2617. icmoore
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I'm 15 miles to your NE and noticed the beautiful sunrise as well. Did you get up early enough to see the low fast moving clouds burning off? It was quite a site in front of the sunrise.


Hi! Sorry about the delay and yes it was quite a sight! My husband is away and before I took the dogs out I stepped outside to look around and found a White Egret on my roof and the beatiful clouds!
Link www.nhc.noaa.gov


Still at 70% at 8 a.m.
I think it looks worse now than 12 hours ago... Convection is more displaced from the center and it doesn't have as good a banding pattern...



Quoting Chicklit:
As everyone's been saying, the LLC is clearly displaced from convection. The anticyclone is even further west.

Good morning everybody,I posted 2 times yesterday on the blog this possibility of the convention going NE over Florida and the actual LLC going NW,that is the reason that I believe our local Meteorologist's have such a high rain chance in South Florida for the next few days,I has been checking the system very closely since yesterday morning and can see the direction of the clouds and where this thing really wants to go,this is just my personal opinion,and I'm not a wishcaster for Florida even thought I live in Miami.
2622. LargoFl
Quoting unf97:


That's not quite right. You overlooked Beryl which made landfall in Northeast Florida recently.
Haha. I love how a UNF student popped up to defend the only Jax storm in recent history lol. I drove from Tampa to Jax Bch to see Beryl come in and had a great time. Maybe I won't have to drive anywhere at all to see Debby :p
2625. Cat5hit
Quoting unf97:


That's not quite right. You overlooked Beryl which made landfall in Northeast Florida recently.


How about first potential HURRICANE threat to the mainland this year...


I'm still thinking we have multiple centers in 96L ie: the winds are out of the SW at Belize City
There's also the scenario everybody might have overlooked - it doesn't develop at all...
...so looking at TampaSpin's model graphic, 96L will meander around the Gulf for a while or is it expected to move? Is this supposed to dissipate as a low over Florida and just turn into a bunch of rainshowers and then reform off the eastern seaboard?
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
There's also the scenario everybody might have overlooked - it doesn't develop at all...



NoooooOOOOOOooooooOOOoo
If "Debby" doesnt start moving soon its back to the drawing board with the models...EURO may end up being right...could be a NW Gulf event ....
2632. LargoFl
Quoting Chicklit:
...so looking at TampaSpin's model graphic, 96L will meander around the Gulf for a while or is it expected to move? Is this supposed to dissipate as a low over Florida and just turn into a bunch of rainshowers and then reform off the eastern seaboard?
that is a possibility they said yesterday,until it does form, anything is possible i guess
Morning all, glad to see it's back to weather again. I was hoping we'd have a better idea on 96, but I knew it was too early yet. It'll be another interesting day on the blog.
2634. Grothar
Quoting TampaCat5:

Wow, that's from the GFS, right?


Yes, it is the GFS. If it takes longer to move into the central Gulf, it may stall and start a movement to the NE. However, if the ridging does become stronger as expected, it should reach the central Gulf and begin moving west. I believe some of the models are still leaving the east of NE movement due to the fact is they are unsure of when and if the high is strong enough to begin moving it west.
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
There's also the scenario everybody might have overlooked - it doesn't develop at all...


I'd tend to agree if it were surrounded by dry air, but look at the WV Loop.
Quoting Chicklit:
...so looking at TampaSpin's model graphic, 96L will meander around the Gulf for a while or is it expected to move? Is this supposed to dissipate as a low over Florida and just turn into a bunch of rainshowers and then reform off the eastern seaboard?


Not developing will allow it to not move much in low steering. So its not going anywhere very quickly.
What a mess...

Quoting TampaFLUSA:
There's also the scenario everybody might have overlooked - it doesn't develop at all...

NOGAPS 00Z is close to that, with "it" heading into TX/MX border.
Quoting stormpetrol:


I'm still thinking we have multiple centers in 96L ie: the winds are out of the SW at Belize City
And this is what we're suppose to get a "hurricane" from Lol.Well any way Dolly didn't look that pretty in her beginning stages either.
Quoting RTSplayer:



NoooooOOOOOOooooooOOOoo


The gfdl does not develop the low.
Quoting canehater1:
If "Debby" doesnt start moving soon its back to the drawing board with the models...EURO may end up being right...could be a NW Gulf event ....




plzs dont call it Debby call it 96L
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, it is the GFS. If it takes longer to move into the central Gulf, it may stall and start a movement to the NE. However, if the ridging does become stronger as expected, it should reach the central Gulf and begin moving west. I believe some of the models are still leaving the east of NE movement due to the fact is they are unsure of when and if the high is strong enough to begin moving it west.


Yep, the longer it stays weak the more likely it does not move much and the more likely it moves West toward Texas/Mexico when the High builds back in.
2644. LargoFl
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What a mess...

most likely a rainmaker, i dont see this going to a hurricane, not the way it looks today,lets see what the planes find later today
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, it is the GFS. If it takes longer to move into the central Gulf, it may stall and start a movement to the NE. However, if the ridging does become stronger as expected, it should reach the central Gulf and begin moving west. I believe some of the models are still leaving the east of NE movement due to the fact is they are unsure of when and if the high is strong enough to begin moving it west.


That's probably why the HPC just has it sitting in the mid gulf through 7 days. Although they said it would probably be taken west or sw. But the timing and position of the ridge is still unknown.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Intresting run their hope it ant the case, coastal watar is already high around here we have been having a strong SE wind all week
2647. LargoFl
Wave Model - North Atlantic Surface Pressure and Wind

180 Hour

Initialized 00Z22JUN2012

Link
2650. Grothar
When you see that much gray, it means very cold cloud tops and very heavy rain. This would indicate a tremendous amount of energy. The system is still elongated to the Southwest. Expect many more lows to develop until is begins to consolidate under what should be the dominate low. Until this happens, it will be difficult to determine its strength or direction.

there will likey be no recon today un less 96L starts geting it act togeter
2652. trey33
Quoting Grothar:
When you see that much gray, it means very cold cloud tops and very heavy rain. This would indicate a tremendous amount of energy. The system is still elongated to the Southwest. Expect many more lows to develop until is begins to consolidate under what should be the dominate low. Until this happens, it will be difficult to determine its strength or direction.



Thx
2653. Cat5hit
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


It's going to hit Texas!


Is that because Tampa put the Hurricane Shields up?

It is gonna bounce off the coast of Florida and hit Texas?
2654. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What a mess...



Stop looking in the mirror and get to work.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Not developing will allow it to not move much in low steering. So its not going anywhere very quickly.
walk.faster.next.please
2656. LargoFl
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-230200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF, PULLING A TROUGH NORTHWARD FROM FLORIDA
KEYS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

POSSIBLE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TO 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. AS TYPICALLY OBSERVED
DURING THESE EVENTS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR SHOULD A
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN SET UP.

INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR UPDATES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A FLOOD WATCH COULD BECOME NECESSARY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

$$

BAXTER
2657. Grothar
Quoting trey33:


Thx


YW. Of course Dr. Masters will come in soon and wipe away all our good analyses and nobody will know what we wrote :)
The official NWS forecast for Naples:

Ha!

The official NWS radar for Naples:

Ha!

I wonder what the real chances are that the two will agree at some point over the next 72 hours... ;-)
Quoting blsealevel:


Intresting run their hope it ant the case, coastal watar is already high around here we have been having a strong SE wind all week


Yes that thing sitting and spinning like that can cause all kinds of problems. I hope it moves quickly as the EURO showed last run.
Quoting Chicklit:


I'd tend to agree if it were surrounded by dry air, but look at the WV Loop.

Do you think system being weak it would be affected by shear easier which is still high, wouldn't it?
2661. Cat5hit
Quoting Grothar:


Stop looking in the mirror and get to work.


Snarky today are we Grothar?
Not sure if this system will develop or where it will move to but they are saying I could hit 110 next week, good news is my humidity is down. LOL Bad News is High Fire Danger.

TWO SIGNIFICANT EVENTS ARE LINING UP OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THE FIRST
BEING A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALREADY BUILDING OVER TX...AND
THE SECOND BEING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT MODELS SHOW AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL TO IMPACT SOUTH TX NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SURGE NE FROM THE SWRN US/MEX BORDER INTO OK
BY SUNDAY...BRINGING OPPRESSIVE HEAT TO MUCH OF TX. LOW TO MID
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHWEST AND MIX OUT THE MOISTURE THAT
FELL OVER SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND TO BRING A GRADUALLY DAILY
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON TEMPS. BY MONDAY...NEARLY ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO HIT THE CENTURY MARK...AND SOME
LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH 110. DURING THIS PERIOD...A LIGHT
SURFACE WIND ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON WIND SHIFTS TO
E/NE AFTER MIXING WITH THE AIR ALOFT. THUS IN RELATIVE ABSENCE OF
MOISTURE...TEMPERATURES WITH LOW RH COULD BE HIGHER THAN THE HEAT
INDICES IN SOME AREAS. THE HWO WILL THUS ADDRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS A CONCERN IN PLACE OF HEAT INDICES. THE LIGHT WINDS WOULD ALSO
HELP OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO COOL TO WELL BELOW 80 AT LEAST IN THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR IS THE BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GULF WHICH IS FORECAST BY MOST MODEL DATA TO DEVELOP INTO A
DEPRESSION AND THREATEN TX. CONFIDENCE REMAINS ESPECIALLY LOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE BROAD SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND DUE TO
SOME MODELS STILL TRACKING THE ENERGY EASTWARD. INFORMATION FROM
THE NHC ON THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WITH
HPC FAVORING A CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF MODEL...THE FORECAST SHOWS
A SLIGHT INFLUENCE OF COOLER TEMPS AND WIND CHANGES FOR DAY
6-7...AN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EASTERN HALF.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM DOES DEVELOP AND HEAD
WEST TOWARD SOUTH TX...ADDITIONAL HAZARD CONCERNS FOR MID-WEEK
MORNING TEMPERATURES AND ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
NEED TO BE RAISED IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.
Quoting Cat5hit:


Is that because Tampa put the Hurricane Shields up?

It is gonna bounce off the coast of Florida and hit Texas?


No! It has to hit Texas! or else else it ain't a valid storm according to RITAEVAC!
Link

descending ASCAT looks like a low (not impressive) is try to close, but incomplete. No sign of the 60 observation north of that area.
2665. Grothar
Quoting LargoFl:
most likely a rainmaker, i dont see this going to a hurricane, not the way it looks today,lets see what the planes find later today


If it gets into the central Gulf and the anticyclone builds over it, it could be very strong. Conditions should begin to be conducive for further development. The shear has already begun to relax and expected to drop further. Pressures are dropping in the area and have dropped a very millibars this morning. That is a good indication that something wants to develop. Hey, Largo, it looks like another full day on the blog.
2666. MahFL
I've never seen a llc covered by ribbon cloud before.
2667. Cat5hit
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

Do you think system being weak it would be affected by shear easier which is still high, wouldn't it?


Depends on where the shear is and how deep the system is. But typically, that answer is yes.
Morning All.

Not sure we'll see a plane today. I see the ULAC is heading back over to the area from being grossly displaced yesterday.

The cirrus streamer above our low that is not moving tells me shear is going down big time.

Well, out to work on painting my deck while it's still somewhat 'cool' out. Hopefully the ones in here who are only here for trying to get a rise out of people will have somewhere to go...

My thoughts so far on what I've read and looked at is I don't think the ridge will come down strong enough to pull 96 east. I think it will go west, whether north or south only time will tell.
Quoting naviguesser:
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/c ur _25km_TEST/zooms/WMBds75.png

descending ASCAT looks like a low (not impressive) is try to close, but incomplete. No sign of the 60 observation north of that area.
You may want to fix that link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




Looks disorganized now but the convection is on the verge of exploding watch out for that.
2673. Grothar
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


That's probably why the HPC just has it sitting in the mid gulf through 7 days. Although they said it would probably be taken west or sw. But the timing and position of the ridge is still unknown.


Most of the models have it sitting for a few days in the Gulf. I think that is what is causing the models to be so divegent. There is plenty of fuel in the Gulf, and by the appearance of the system, a lot of energy.
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Looks disorganized now but the convection is on the verge of exploding watch out for that.


Yeah, it's that time of year...off for a while cul8r.
2675. Cat5hit
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Well, out to work on painting my deck while it's still somewhat 'cool' out. Hopefully the ones in here who are only here for trying to get a rise out of people will have somewhere to go...

My thoughts so far on what I've read and looked at is I don't think the ridge will come down strong enough to pull 96 east. I think it will go west, whether north or south only time will tell.


Good Luck on both counts.
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

Do you think system being weak it would be affected by shear easier which is still high, wouldn't it?


Shear over the central Gulf is the main reason the N and W sides of the storm never has made any convection, else it'd by huge right now, and likely named a long time ago.

There was also an issue with two or three possible competing circulations yesterday. One possible in the central Gulf near 25N, and another possible under the convection in the Yucatan channel, as yesterday a dry line bisected the convection, and I assume that may have been caused by competing circulations, because when you get that big of a mass of convection far away from the main LLC, then it tends to start trying to create it's own LLC.
2677. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Morning All.

Not sure we'll see a plane today. I see the ULAC is heading back over to the area from being grossly displaced yesterday.

The cirrus streamer above our low that is not moving tells me shear is going down big time.



Hey, P! Another day on the blog. I guess the yard will have to wait another day.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Not sure if this system will develop or where it will move to but they are saying I could hit 110 next week, good news is my humidity is down. LOL Bad News is High Fire Danger.
Yeah, it looks ugly for much of the country next week:

Hot
2679. Grothar
Quoting Cat5hit:


Snarky today are we Grothar?


No, Geoff and I always insult each other in the morning. That's what friends do. What you never saw the shots he takes at me?
Quoting naviguesser:
Link

descending ASCAT looks like a low (not impressive) is try to close, but incomplete. No sign of the 60 observation north of that area.


same one from yesterday.
Anyone that believes any system that enters the Gulf of Mexico in late June and won't develop into a decent storm in Low Shear probably knows little about the Gulf of Mexico. I am certainly not saying this will develop into anything but, i certainly will say this could become at least a Cat2 storm very quickly once it gets a Closed Low Formed. But, a Closed Low is first if it does!
2682. Grothar
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Well, out to work on painting my deck while it's still somewhat 'cool' out. Hopefully the ones in here who are only here for trying to get a rise out of people will have somewhere to go...

My thoughts so far on what I've read and looked at is I don't think the ridge will come down strong enough to pull 96 east. I think it will go west, whether north or south only time will tell.


You nailed it! LOL
2683. Cat5hit
Quoting Grothar:


No, Geoff and I always insult each other in the morning. That's what friends do. What you never saw the shots he takes at me?


Yes.. You both seem to poke at each other often, come to think of it.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Anyone that believes any system that enters the Gulf of Mexico in late June and won't develop into a decent storm in Low Shear probably knows little about the Gulf of Mexico. I am certainly not saying this will develop into anything but, i certainly will say this could become at least a Cat2 storm very quickly once it gets a Closed Low Formed. But, a Closed Low is first if it does!


Stop wishing it towards your house Tim!
2685. amd
Quoting RTSplayer:


Shear over the central Gulf is the main reason the N and W sides of the storm never has made any convection, else it'd by huge right now, and likely named a long time ago.

There was also an issue with two or three possible competing circulations yesterday. One possible in the central Gulf near 25N, and another possible under the convection in the Yucatan channel, as yesterday a dry line bisected the convection, and I assume that may have been caused by competing circulations, because when you get that big of a mass of convection far away from the main LLC, then it tends to start trying to create it's own LLC.


After quickly looking at the observations from the Yucatan Peninsula, the lowest pressure that I saw is now at Cozumel. Also, winds are currently out of the NNW winds in Cancun. A new elongated LLC may be forming somewhere between Cozumel and the Yucatan channel due to the intense convection.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Yeah, it looks ugly for much of the country next week:

Hot
Been pretty miserable here since mid May, my dryest June ever with No rain when we average around 5 inches and near 100 every day with dew points in the 70s. Dew Points since yesterday are much lower so I say bring on 110 with no humidity if I cannot get rains with heat and high humidity why have them? I work outside quite a bit and the humidity is not my friend, last Summer was better for me because it was 105 every day but heat indexes were 100. This Summer it is 98 every day with 105 to 110 heat index so I am ready for dry weather.
In other news...



and



and




There's no melting...nope...none at all. We're nowhere near record ice melts....it was worse than this two billion years ago...Earth can handle it...
I hope Texas will get some relief from the oppressive heat but don't wish a tropical storm on Texas because you don't mess with Texas.

Hopefully, nothing major develops and a weak low will ultimately drift deep into Texas.
2689. Grothar
Quoting TampaSpin:


Yep, the longer it stays weak the more likely it does not move much and the more likely it moves West toward Texas/Mexico when the High builds back in.


That is what is expected. The only kink is that a pulse of energy may drop down east of the high over Texas and may be south enough to move it NE in about 3 days.


Looks like another center maybe forming around 18N/86W



Some of the lowest pressures are also in that general area.
Quoting amd:


After quickly looking at the observations from the Yucatan Peninsula, the lowest pressure that I saw is now at Cozumel. Also, winds are currently out of the NNW winds in Cancun. A new elongated LLC may be forming somewhere between Cozumel and the Yucatan channel due to the intense convection.


Yesterday, when everyone on the blog was hectic about how strong this will get. However, I said that if this wants to develop it will need to move/reform further east into the convection.
2692. unf97
Quoting Cat5hit:


How about first potential HURRICANE threat to the mainland this year...


Possibly. Not etched in stone though. Just have to see if 96L can tighten up. This is a very large and broad circulation which initially originated from a monsoonal trough. These types of systems can take days to finally close off and consolidate a center of circulation.

It has a chance to become a significant cyclone in the next few days as the anticyclone will likely get over the top of 96L and the system can feed upon the warm SSTs in the GOM.

BTW, Beryl was rather substantial,70 mph TS at landfall. I lost power for a couple of days and the area had flooding. Some analysts believe it may get upgraded to minimal hurricane status in the post season analysis when it is conducted by the NHC. My point is just don't exclusively look at hurricanes as serious threats. There have been examples of many tropical storms that can be serious threats just for flooding alone, with Allison in 2001 and Fay in 2008 being the best examples of this.
2693. Grothar
Quoting Cat5hit:


Yes.. You both seem to poke at each other often, come to think of it.


Are you kidding. He insults me more than my mother-in-law. Many times people have thought we were serious. TropicalAnalyst and I always do that to. They are good sports.
2694. Grothar
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Been pretty miserable here since mid May, my dryest June ever with No rain when we average around 5 inches and near 100 every day with dew points in the 70s. Dew Points since yesterday are much lower so I say bring on 110 with no humidity if I cannot get rains with heat and high humidity why have them? I work outside quite a bit and the humidity is not my friend, last Summer was better for me because it was 105 every day but heat indexes were 100. This Summer it is 98 every day with 105 to 110 heat index so I am ready for dry weather.


You should move to South Florida where it is cooler. I can only think of one day down here in the past 40 years where it hit 100.
Quoting RTSplayer:
In other news...There's no melting...nope...none at all. We're nowhere near record ice melts....it was worse than this two billion years ago...Earth can handle it...
Here's another good one:

Click for larger image:

ice
Quoting stormpetrol:


same one from yesterday.


Dated freshly - they having known issues?
2697. Cat5hit
We could use a little humor on the blog every now and then... No harm/offense on my part if everyone is a willing participate.
Good morning everybody. It appears that the llc is developing somewhere just east of the Yucatan Peninsula. Are there still any signs that a llc exists farther NW where it officially is being depicted?
Quoting stormpetrol:


Looks like another center maybe forming around 18N/86W



Some of the lowest pressures are also in that general area.


Yea maybe a little bit further north than 18N/86W more like
86N/21W pressures around 1004 mb.
I believe that the real development will happen Saturday.The low has failed to make any progress,is still broad and has failed to consolidate.Future "Debby" will probably become named on Sunday the earliest.My opinion so don't hate.
2701. Grothar
Quoting TampaSpin:
Anyone that believes any system that enters the Gulf of Mexico in late June and won't develop into a decent storm in Low Shear probably knows little about the Gulf of Mexico. I am certainly not saying this will develop into anything but, i certainly will say this could become at least a Cat2 storm very quickly once it gets a Closed Low Formed. But, a Closed Low is first if it does!


Hey, TSpin! I thought you moved.
2702. Cat5hit
Quoting unf97:


Possibly. Not etched in stone though. Just have to see if 96L can tighten up. This is a very large and broad circulation which initially originated from a monsoonal trough. These types of systems can take days to finally close off and consolidate a center of circulation.

It has a chance to become a significant cyclone in the next few days as the anticyclone will likely get over the top of 96L and the system can feed upon the warm SSTs in the GOM.

BTW, Beryl was rather substantial,70 mph TS at landfall. I lost power for a couple of days and the area had flooding. Some analysts believe it may get upgraded to minimal hurricane status in the post season analysis when it is conducted by the NHC. My point is just don't exclusively look at hurricanes as serious threats. There have been examples of many tropical storms that can be serious threats just for flooding alone, with Allison in 2001 and Fay in 2008 being the best examples of this.



That is why I used the word 'potential' in my statement...

Yes, Tropical Storms can be nasty too! But not like a Major Hurricane though. Losing power is one thing, losing everything is quite another.
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


Stop wishing it towards your house Tim!


Obviously has not been hit by a storm.
Quoting trey33:


Thx


Did you stay up late last night for the 00z? lol...'morning everyone, 96.
96l on Google Earth does not look like much of a threat,,anyone know update times on sat. photos they use??
Quoting washingtonian115:
I believe that the real development will happen Saturday.The low has failed to make any progress,is still broad and has failed to consolidate.Future "Debby" will probably become named on Sunday the earliest.My opinion so don't hate.


It wasn't supposed to, no one was expecting development overnight so I don't know why people are disappointed. The low pressure center remains very broad but is slowly making progress. The Yucatan is what is disrupting rapid development. Once the ULAC gets centered over the low, you should probably see the system ramp up.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I believe that the real development will happen Saturday.The low has failed to make any progress,is still broad and has failed to consolidate.Future "Debby" will probably become named on Sunday the earliest.My opinion so don't hate.

Wow, your downcasting is almost trollish... Lol, just kidding, I think you're right... The low is too big to consolidate as fast as we had thought, and I don't think it's close proximity to land is helping it either... We will still see Debby out of this, but not as soon.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Looks like another center maybe forming around 18N/86W



Some of the lowest pressures are also in that general area.


Whoa, are those 60 kt winds in the Central Gulf?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Here's another good one:

Click for larger image:

ice


Excellent graphic.

Notice the exponential trend much?

2711. 19N81W
wow that area of weather has some high tops in it....
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


Right over the Artic!


lol
2713. 7544
today all eyes on the convection looks like its trying to go nne im not even looking at the naked spin lol the action isi there if they do send a plane they might find a new low and to the east thats what the gfs might be telling us and more model runs will join its camp latter just my own opinon .enjoy your coffee
2714. Grothar
This is really elongated.

Quoting 19N81W:
wow that area of weather has some high tops in it....


I need you to level off to 5,000 and slow to 180.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


It wasn't supposed to, no one was expecting development overnight so I don't know why people are disappointed. The low pressure center remains very broad but is slowly making progress. The Yucatan is what is disrupting rapid development. Once the ULAC gets centered over the low, you should probably see the system ramp up.
I was never expecting development over night.Yesterday I thought that we may get a closed circulation sometime tonight at the earliest the way organization was going yesterday.Now I've backed it up till Saturday night with Sunday being D-day(Debbie day).

Quoting washingtonian115:
I believe that the real development will happen Saturday.The low has failed to make any progress,is still broad and has failed to consolidate.Future "Debby" will probably become named on Sunday the earliest.My opinion so don't hate.
It may not even develop at all.  Could be that it splits off into two pieces of energy like the GFS was hinting at with two tropical systems, only maybe neither make storm status until the trough clears out, then what energy is left down in the Gulf could have a chance to develop.  Right now I just think there is too much competition for anything to organize.  That trough down there is hurting it as much as it has been helping it.   And then you have this...


Recon is scheduled for takeoff at 12pm.
Quoting ILwthrfan:

It may not even develop at all.  Could be that it splits off into two pieces of energy like the GFS was hinting at with two tropical systems, only maybe neither make storm status until the trough clears out, then what energy is left down in the Gulf could have a chance to develop.  Right now I just think there is too much competition for anything to organize.  That trough down there is hurting it as much as it has been helping it.   And then you have this...






i wish you guys would stop posting the chart i find it annyouing when you guys this keep posting and posting it
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Recon is scheduled for takeoff at 12pm.




right now i dont see that happing
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


Stop wishing it towards your house Tim!


Ya Right....LOL....NO THANK YOU!
2722. scott39
Looks like 96l will start to try and close its low off in the next 24 hours. i still think this is going to be a central/N Gulf Coast landfall.
Quoting naviguesser:


Dated freshly - they having known issues?


1845. stormpetrol 1:39 AM GMT on June 22, 2012

Check this out same ascat I posted it last night.
Good Morning Folks. Just noting, as you look at all the loops, that there is a diagonal "line" across the NW-SW side system that runs from the Yucatan towards the Florida Big Big Bend.

If you look at the CIMMS sheer chart below, you can see the band of sheer, which is causing this lopsided appearance, probably blowing in the 20-40 kt range across this quadrant of the system.

Link

If you look at the CIMMS sheer tendancy chart below, currently, that same band has an increasing tendency with the exception of a dropping tendancy directly north of the Low.

Link

My point is that this diagonal band of sheer is acting like a straight line wall preventing further organization by not allowing any of the convection to the East to wrap around and consolidate around the emerging COC. However, the path of least resistance at the moment is due North.

Will be interesting to see if the emerging COC will take the path of least resistance; which could initiate the system a little further to the East.

I live in the Big Bend of Florida and just topped off the gas tanks at the house before coming into work just in case.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Recon is scheduled for takeoff at 12pm.


No go according to the NHC discussion
2726. Grothar
Quoting 19N81W:
wow that area of weather has some high tops in it....


It does, a tremendous amount. If this were over land, it would be bad

2727. 7544
agree also notice the ull to the east of fla and how its pushing the north clouds over fl to the east this is the key player that the gfs is seeing and taking this that way imo
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, TSpin! I thought you moved.


I still pop in and out sometimes tho!
Quoting unf97:


Possibly. Not etched in stone though. Just have to see if 96L can tighten up. This is a very large and broad circulation which initially originated from a monsoonal trough. These types of systems can take days to finally close off and consolidate a center of circulation.

It has a chance to become a significant cyclone in the next few days as the anticyclone will likely get over the top of 96L and the system can feed upon the warm SSTs in the GOM.

BTW, Beryl was rather substantial,70 mph TS at landfall. I lost power for a couple of days and the area had flooding. Some analysts believe it may get upgraded to minimal hurricane status in the post season analysis when it is conducted by the NHC. My point is just don't exclusively look at hurricanes as serious threats. There have been examples of many tropical storms that can be serious threats just for flooding alone, with Allison in 2001 and Fay in 2008 being the best examples of this.


Beryl must have been much worse in some areas near the landfall location than others. I was in Jax Beach for the storm and the highest winds officially recorded here were 46 gusting to 62 mph. I waited for the eastern "eyewall" to hit and the winds as it moved through were 20-25 mph.

On the recently posted windspeed map of the Gulf, are those 60 kt winds north of the Yucatan?
2730. unf97
Quoting Cat5hit:



That is why I used the word 'potential' in my statement...

Yes, Tropical Storms can be nasty too! But not like a Major Hurricane though. Losing power is one thing, losing everything is quite another.


Thankfully, I have never experienced going through a major hurricane and God forbid I hope it never occurs for me, or anyone for that matter.

I can only imagine the calamity that ensues in the aftermath. So, I sinccerely pray that 96L won't become a major hurricane for all along the Gulf Coast.
If a new LLC is forming under the convection then we might have a different animal all together.

Could be smaller storm than previously thought, and maybe sort of whip around the broad low to it's NW as that feature meanders around or moves west.

This might be the "Split" some models indicated.
Quoting ILwthrfan:

It may not even develop at all.  Could be that it splits off into two pieces of energy like the GFS was hinting at with two tropical systems, only maybe neither make storm status until the trough clears out, then what energy is left down in the Gulf could have a chance to develop.  Right now I just think there is too much competition for anything to organize.  That trough down there is hurting it as much as it has been helping it.   And then you have this...




The GFS does develop this system, and makes it down to a 998mb low. It's having serious convective feedback problems and showing that highly unrealistically the convection will move over Florida and develop over the Atlantic. This solution should be discarded as no other models support this.
2733. scott39
I wouldnt be suprised to see a major hurricane, if 96L sits out in the GOM,
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


No go according to the NHC discussion


?

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.
Wow all models are going to FL now !:)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


?

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY.


Well ya'll look at that!
2737. divdog
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Recon is scheduled for takeoff at 12pm.Quoting CybrTeddy:
Recon is scheduled for takeoff at 12pm.
Not going to happen. Read NHC discussion
2738. scott39
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow all models are going to FL now !:)
models have been flip flopping for a couple of days now. 96L has to form into a depression so NHC can get a handle on the track.
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


Right over the Artic!


Lol sorry I was up all night celebrating the Heat championship what I meant to say is 21N/86W.
Pressure down 2 millibars; winds up 5 knots:

AL, 96, 2012062212, , BEST, 0, 225N, 883W, 25, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 250, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

Meanwhile, Chris is still held as a TS by ATCF:

AL, 03, 2012062212, , BEST, 0, 448N, 455W, 45, 989, TS, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 80, 180, 994, 80, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CHRIS, M,
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow all models are going to FL now !:)


Tampa....obviously! Shields UP! Sarcasm Flag: ON
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow all models are going to FL now !:)

Those aren't reliable models though... The LBAR, BAMM, and BAMD are simple, statistical models so you can mostly throw those out, the HWRF is good for intensity sometimes but not so much track, and the GFS is having major issues with this system... A landfall farther west along the Gulf coast still seems more likely to me.
Convection is getting big again, starting to get some outflow in all directions.

ESL WV

People don't seem to be taking into account just where the low is, it's centered over the Yucatan and has been for 12 hours so of course it's going to look broad and elongated. However, if one looks at things besides the visible satellite loop.. surface pressures are indeed falling in the area. What we need to look forward to day in terms of development is if the system begins to generate convection on the North and the East side of the system. That will be your hint that this is going to try to ramp up.
Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 96, 2012062212, , BEST, 0, 225N, 883W, 25, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 250, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

Interesting, a little strengthening... Looks are deceiving us I guess.
2746. 7544
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow all models are going to FL now !:)

ve
ha was just about to post that now they did join the gfs as i expected this run anyway i still believe threre is some kind of low forming to the east under that convection and the ull is pulling this tworads fla going to be interestin to watch this one enjoy your second cup of coffee
The anti-cyclone is not yet over the center.Which is causing 20+ knots of shear.
2744. CybrTeddy 8:50 AM EDT on June 22, 2012


Did you mean North and West........
Quoting muddertracker:


Tampa....obviously! Shields UP! Sarcasm Flag: ON


You got my hopes high...
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
I hope Texas will get some relief from the oppressive heat but don't wish a tropical storm on Texas because you don't mess with Texas.

Hopefully, nothing major develops and a weak low will ultimately drift deep into Texas.
With or without a Storm the Temps are suppose to drop to 100 near end of next week because high pressure is expected to move west some so there is our relief, LOL. Happy Friday to all. The area of low pressure in the Gulf is not in a hurry to do anything because conditions are not right but they should improve. We need a storm to come thru here and bring all these dead trees down pretty obvious humans aren't going to do the work. Just Kidding. Just saying these trees have been dead for almost a year and not enough is being done about it IMO. Those who have private land cut your dead trees down. I use to live in neighborhood with lots of older beautiful trees but some people would not have theirs trimmed and maintained like they should and everyone payed for it when a strong wind storm came thru. Going out to work before it gets too hot and Yes Most of the Work I do is to Help others in Need who dont have alot of money so I am really not getting payed but it makes me feel better about who I am, I am retired. Take care
2751. kwgirl
Good morning all. Well, last night the Miami weather gurus were saying this mess in the Gulf will move NE toward the big bend. This AM they said it will wander north and hang around NOLA. Just as long as it moves away or at least doesn't stall directly over the Keys. We don't need another 24 inches of rain in 24 hours. Everyone have a good day watching the blob.:)
Well we all know that once the low gets over the water it'll ramp up.We were all predicting that....I find it interesting that the pressure continues to fall and the winds are going up.Once its classified it'll probably skip T.D status and go to T.S status.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


All it needs is a hat (Convection)
Good morning well I'm expecting a baby girl today. Anyways as I stated many days this is a FL storm so people in FL need to be on watch for a strong TS or hurricane coming ashore north of Tampa on Monday.
The ATCF update said this is still a TS, but I think the NHC will say otherwise at 11AM and probably declare it post tropical...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
. Looks like this low may try to form closer to that convection.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Good morning well I'm expecting a baby girl today. Anyways as I stated many days this is a FL storm so people in FL need to be on watch for a strong TS or hurricane coming ashore north of Tampa on Monday.
Well congrats on becoming a new dad.Wish you the best on your family.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Interesting, a little strengthening... Looks are deceiving us I guess.
  The center of 96L has been nearly convection-less its entire life span.  And all that convection is along that same trough that did the same thing as it did yesterday off the coast of Cancun.  As long as those remain two separate entities nothing is going to happen.  All that convection which is getting good outflow along the trough has to be causing some sinking air over the low level circulation to the north of the Yucatan.  Either the trough tightens up and develops its own low level circulation or the trough fades out and the low level circulation develops some thunderstorms.  Either way both will take some time.    One interesting note looking at the visible that Progressive posted was you can really see air piling up in the NW Caribbean to the south of Cuba.  I didn't see that going on yesterday at all.  This would tell me maybe something might be trying to attempt within that convection.
The fact remains that the conditions are right for something to form in the GOM in the next few days, specially if the sheer drops off as predicted. Tracking and intensity are unknowns at this time. Like most of you, I will have my eye on this blog this weekend. Everyone have a great day.
The boundary between the monsoon and the ridge to the nw is moistening up, maybe shear is down in that area. Tried to do this yesterday, but this morning seems to be making better progress. If it keeps this up there should be a solid, sustained line of convection through the central Gulf by noon or so.
I wonder if Levi32 has finally gave up on the TX idea as I said there is a strong trough diving toward the mid Atlantic and should scoop this up in 4 days
Looks like a center near Cozumel might take over. IMO
I think this really narrows it down..



2765. Sarah10
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Good morning well I'm expecting a baby girl today. Anyways as I stated many days this is a FL storm so people in FL need to be on watch for a strong TS or hurricane coming ashore north of Tampa on Monday.
C
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Good morning well I'm expecting a baby girl today. Anyways as I stated many days this is a FL storm so people in FL need to be on watch for a strong TS or hurricane coming ashore north of Tampa on Monday.
Congratulations!
2766. 7544
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Good morning well I'm expecting a baby girl today. Anyways as I stated many days this is a FL storm so people in FL need to be on watch for a strong TS or hurricane coming ashore north of Tampa on Monday.


congrads but it looks like it go also be south of tampa imo watch that ull
Quoting Abacosurf:
Looks like a center near Cozumel might take over. IMO


I don't think so.

Graphic posted by TropicalAnalyst still shows it's N of the Yucatan.

It is a possibility, and there are a few faint wind barbs showing a competing circulation there as expected, but it doesn't look dominant yet.


Just a waiting game to see if it can wring out all the kinks over the next few days.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Anyone that believes any system that enters the Gulf of Mexico in late June and won't develop into a decent storm in Low Shear probably knows little about the Gulf of Mexico. I am certainly not saying this will develop into anything but, i certainly will say this could become at least a Cat2 storm very quickly once it gets a Closed Low Formed. But, a Closed Low is first if it does!


Anyone who is confident they know exactly what nature is going to do knows little about nature.
2769. ncstorm
Good Morning Everyone!!

TD today..Im calling it!
2770. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Good morning well I'm expecting a baby girl today. Anyways as I stated many days this is a FL storm so people in FL need to be on watch for a strong TS or hurricane coming ashore north of Tampa on Monday.
best of luck with the new baby!!!..yes more and more Tampa is the place to watch with this one
Congratulations
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Good morning well I'm expecting a baby girl today. Anyways as I stated many days this is a FL storm so people in FL need to be on watch for a strong TS or hurricane coming ashore north of Tampa on Monday.
2772. ncstorm
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Good morning well I'm expecting a baby girl today. Anyways as I stated many days this is a FL storm so people in FL need to be on watch for a strong TS or hurricane coming ashore north of Tampa on Monday.


Congratulations!!
2773. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow all models are going to FL now !:)
I just hope come monday I dont lose power,wether it comes ashore here or north of tampa, conditions just might go downhill at the start of next week..
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I wonder if Levi32 has finally gave up on the TX idea as I said there is a strong trough diving toward the mid Atlantic and should scoop this up in 4 days
Prepare to duck and hide when Levi's hardcore supporters come on.XD.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I wonder if Levi32 has finally gave up on the TX idea as I said there is a strong trough diving toward the mid Atlantic and should scoop this up in 4 days


No! I fact, when the 18z Euro run when to a more Texas solution yesterday everyone rushed to blog. Unfortunately, you werent there to give them some reality. Good luck on being a Father do you any names for her yet?
:)
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning Everyone!!

TD today..Im calling it!
Quoting jascott1967:


Anyone who is confident they know exactly what nature is going to do knows little about nature.


None of the models I have checked have it developing past 50knots. The HWRF has an interesting change of direction in the latest run - after going west towards south LA it turns 180 degrees and goes to Appalachacola.
What time are the Hurricane Hunter going out??
Here is the BAM Models

2780. divdog
Quoting LargoFl:
I just hope come monday I dont lose power,wether it comes ashore here or north of tampa, conditions just might go downhill at the start of next week..
Forecast error can approach 1000 miles this far out. U need to wait for a environment fed model run then maybe we will have an idea where it is going.
S FL?? =:)
Quoting TampaSpin:
Here is the BAM Models

Quoting washingtonian115:
Prepare to duck and hide when Levi's hardcore supporters come on.XD.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Prepare to duck and hide when Levi's hardcore supporters come on.XD.
Thanks for all the support guys. She looks she maybe a daddy's girl. Maybe she can be my storm chasing buddy. Her name will be Brielle Amelia
2783. ncstorm
GFS Ensembles.



CMC Ensembles


Euro Ensembles


seems clear cut to me..
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Thanks for all the support guys. She looks she maybe a daddy's girl. Maybe she can be my storm chasing buddy. Her name will be Brielle Amelia
Congrats!!! Pretty name!!
Quoting divdog:
Forecast error can approach 1000 miles this far out. U need to wait for a environment fed model run then maybe we will have an idea where it is going.
gulfs.not.that.big?
Quoting pensacolastorm:


None of the models I have checked have it developing past 50knots. The HWRF has an interesting change of direction in the latest run - after going west towards south LA it turns 180 degrees and goes to Appalachacola.


sounds like the models will be changing next few days
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What time are the Hurricane Hunter going out??

Leaving at noon, should arrive around 2PM EDT.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-034

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 22/1600Z
D. 23.0N 89.0W
E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A MISSION
AT 23/1800Z NEAR 24.5N 89.0W
Quoting mynameispaul:


sounds like the models will be changing next few days


Hey Paul!
Quoting Grothar:
This is really elongated.


Are we going to find two separate areas of rotation under that soon?
2790. ncstorm
the 6z HWRF has the same solution as the GFS..stalling and splitting it into two lows..



Quoting Abacosurf:
Looks like a center near Cozumel might take over. IMO


The low north of the Yucatan is heading north into a wall of shear it should dissipate. So its not the dominant LLC. A new one is forming in the Yucatan channel as we speak. Also the convection has a lot of energy that we will start to see release. Once it starts firing intense tstorms near the LLC it could cause it to become dominant and pressures will lower quickly, wind speed will increase and it could close off by this evening (5pm or 11pm to be more specific).
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I wonder if Levi32 has finally gave up on the TX idea as I said there is a strong trough diving toward the mid Atlantic and should scoop this up in 4 days


I would not be so sure to say Levi is wrong yet. I posted the same on my website a few days ago. It was just his thoughts at the time. The young man is VERY GOOD at what he does.
It looks like the upgrades made to the GFS paid off this time. Best model by far on invest 96l. The other people were saying the GFS was unrealistic well look who's laughing now
2794. whs2012
Cat 5 to Florida?!!
2795. divdog
Quoting islander101010:
gulfs.not.that.big?
The gulf does not have a thousand miles of coast line..
Quoting islander101010:
gulfs.not.that.big?
Try 1680 miles of coastline and that does not even count Mexico. That's the facts islander
2796. ncstorm
Quoting TampaSpin:


I would not be so sure to say Levi is wrong yet. I posted the same on my website a few days ago. It was just his thoughts at the time. The young man is VERY GOOD at what he does.


Yes he is very good!
Quoting StormTracker2K:
It looks like the upgrades made to the GFS paid off this time. Best model by far on invest 96l. The other people were saying the GFS was unrealistic well look who's laughing now


It is unrealistic. It splits the low in half due to convective feedback problems. Congrats btw.
2798. LargoFl
hmm if this does form, posts in this blog will blow past 3000 in one day gee, good job posting folks
i saw a few modeles having a hurricane in the northeast!!
Quoting ncstorm:
the 6z HWRF has the same solution as the GFS..stalling and splitting it into two lows..



My guess it decouples from Shear, with the LLC going one way while the MidLevel moves the other.
2801. LargoFl
looking at the latest sat photos it appears that the coc has been relocated beneath the big mass of convection between the western tip of cuba and the tip of the yucatan peninsula. there is also a small vortex to the north of cuba heading in the direction of south florida. it appears to me that the area of interset is within the new blow up of convection to the the the n of of the yucatan
Quoting TampaSpin:


My guess it decouples from Shear, with the LLC going one way while the MidLevel moves the other.
Shear? No I believe shear will be low along any path it takes in the GOM.
Imapact weather says

75% Texas

25% Florida


mash it
Gonna stick by my "stillwaitingcast" from 2 days ago: 51. stillwaiting 3:35 PM GMT on June 19, 2012 +0

I'd keep a eye on the area around 17.5N,87.5W,sheers to high now,but as that area drifts north and stalls over central/eastern south GOM,sheer is forecast to be conducive in about 36-48hrs (in southern gom/nw carib),could then end up developing into a TD or weak TS and go into the west coast of fl or big bend area,other scenerio it goes west as the high builds over the plains,that would likely result in a hurricane headed towards tx/la,all depends on the strength,postion and timing of the forecast high presssure-my mini forecast.....ps,i expect a td to form and meander in the eastern/central gom and go no where,but should flood parts of fl with 5-10",isolated up to 15"

Action: Quote | Modify Comment Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 4887
2806. LargoFl
Rain!!:)
Quoting mobileshadow:
Imapact weather says

75% Texas

25% Florida


mash it


The GFDL 06Z run does not develop it, and winds do not exceed 22knots.
not good!!
Quoting StormTracker2K:
It looks like the upgrades made to the GFS paid off this time. Best model by far on invest 96l. The other people were saying the GFS was unrealistic well look who's laughing now

If it ultimately does what the GFS is showing hats off to the NWS. The jury though is still in deliberation on this.
25% Texas

75% Florida lol
Quoting mobileshadow:
Imapact weather says

75% Texas

25% Florida


mash it
2812. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Thanks for all the support guys. She looks she maybe a daddy's girl. Maybe she can be my storm chasing buddy. Her name will be Brielle Amelia
best of luck
2813. ncstorm
that is a lotta rain..

2814. Patrap
..."you wont get a mechanic cuz yer Daddy's free"...

Quoting TampaSpin:


My guess it decouples from Shear, with the LLC going one way while the MidLevel moves the other.


I would say from different levels of the atmosphere being affected by either the ridge or the trough.
Quoting pensacolastorm:


The GFDL 06Z run does not develop it, and winds do not exceed 22knots.

The GFDL is a poor model. It used to be good, but not anymore.
2817. LargoFl
This is one huge balancing act; if the COC does initiate closer to Florida, and the system is picked up by the trof, less time over water and better the chances for TS/low end cane. If it stays on the weaker end for now, and misses the Trof, then more time over water and organization.

Just waiting on Dr. M's take at this point and gonna watch and wait for better organization over the next 24-48.
2819. Patrap


Quoting SFLWeatherman:
25% Texas

75% Florida lol
When is another ASCAT expected, anyone know?
At least they have this moving faster now.

Quoting ilovehurricanes12:
not good!!


WU doesnt show the CMC, NOGAPS, or ECMWF which all take it west. There is still high uncertainty of which path this system will take, major models are divided right now.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
It looks like the upgrades made to the GFS paid off this time. Best model by far on invest 96l. The other people were saying the GFS was unrealistic well look who's laughing now


The upgrades did well because.... IT PUT A STORM OVER YOUR HOUSE AHAH

JK that's your opinion I'll go with the euro
345

WHXX01 KWBC 221232

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1232 UTC FRI JUN 22 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120622 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120622 1200 120623 0000 120623 1200 120624 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 22.5N 88.3W 23.2N 88.8W 24.0N 89.5W 24.6N 89.8W

BAMD 22.5N 88.3W 23.2N 88.3W 24.2N 88.0W 25.4N 87.9W

BAMM 22.5N 88.3W 23.1N 88.6W 23.8N 88.9W 24.6N 88.9W

LBAR 22.5N 88.3W 23.2N 88.4W 24.5N 88.5W 25.9N 88.5W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 44KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 44KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120624 1200 120625 1200 120626 1200 120627 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.6N 89.9W 23.8N 87.8W 25.0N 83.3W 26.3N 77.4W

BAMD 26.3N 87.8W 27.2N 87.3W 27.9N 84.2W 28.0N 74.7W

BAMM 24.9N 88.8W 25.1N 86.8W 26.8N 82.0W 28.7N 72.2W

LBAR 27.1N 88.2W 27.8N 87.3W 29.5N 84.3W 32.2N 79.0W

SHIP 51KTS 58KTS 56KTS 51KTS

DSHP 51KTS 58KTS 56KTS 51KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 22.5N LONCUR = 88.3W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 2KT

LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 88.7W DIRM12 = 43DEG SPDM12 = 3KT

LATM24 = 21.3N LONM24 = 89.5W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


2825. kwgirl
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Thanks for all the support guys. She looks she maybe a daddy's girl. Maybe she can be my storm chasing buddy. Her name will be Brielle Amelia
Congrats Daddy. Is this your first? Girls are special and she will have you wrapped in no time LOL>
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Thanks for all the support guys. She looks she maybe a daddy's girl. Maybe she can be my storm chasing buddy. Her name will be Brielle Amelia
Congrads on the baby girl buddy.
I'm not putting too much emphasis on models right now.

The broad low is so big, and the system poorly defined, such that models make up fake crap from every potential blob of convection.

It really needs to get stacked before I start trusting models.
What is the shear at now???
2829. LargoFl
Quoting ncstorm:
that is a lotta rain..

yes, we along the immediate gulf coast might get a piece of that heavy rain later on,im 3 1/2 miles from the coastline..roof gutters cleaned and waiting lol
2831. 7544
Quoting stoormfury:
looking at the latest sat photos it appears that the coc has been relocated beneath the big mass of convection between the western tip of cuba and the tip of the yucatan peninsula. there is also a small vortex to the north of cuba heading in the direction of south florida. it appears to me that the area of interset is within the new blow up of convection to the the the n of of the yucatan


agree and if this is right the hh will find a ts when they get there this afternoon and the blog will go into overdrive im still keeping my eye on that ull just east of so fla as long as that hangs aroundd this will be a so fl storm but if it fades it could go to texas instead stay tuned going to be a fun day here enjoy your third cup of coffee
96L certainly is looking good this morning. I personally lean towards a STX impact, due to 3 major models predicting a westward drift. The GFS looks to be the outlier, thinking that 96L will get picked up and pushed east. I personally have some doubt on the entire forecast, due to the incredibly weak steering currents involved, and the system going into the GOM, which is always unpredictable.

On a more personal note, I *really* hope it does go towards STX as a tropical storm, or towards the big bend area as a tropical storm, as both of those areas desperately need the rain.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I wonder if Levi32 has finally gave up on the TX idea as I said there is a strong trough diving toward the mid Atlantic and should scoop this up in 4 days


I am still waiting on the 20 inches of rain for Fl you were hyping 2 days ago Jeff. You should be the last person to call out anyone on this site!
Is it only me or has anyone else noticed the NHC has stopped using surface winds to categorize tropical systems? Not in the last two (or more) years have surface station winds matched the strength reported by the NHC. Irene is perfect example. When declared Cat II hurricane, a bouy right where winds should be peak reported 60 knots max. It wasn't even a hurricane.

What would be the motivation to use altitude winds where no one lives to categorize a storm? The NHC is not doing anyone a favor when storm damage requires an insurance claim and their rigging the category results in the hurricane deductible kicking in. Thanks for nothing.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Thanks for all the support guys. She looks she maybe a daddy's girl. Maybe she can be my storm chasing buddy. Her name will be Brielle Amelia


Congrats. Teach her some weather when she's older in sure you will do great! Good luck
Hmmm...I wanna come up with a unique forecast here, so I can be the one to say, I called it first.

So I say, 96L gets into the Gulf and starts going in circles, never making landfall, and making "Whoo Whoo Whoo" noises like Curly from the Three Stooges. It upwells deeper colder water in the Gulf, causing it to fall apart and shut down the Gulf to tropical development for a month.

Either that or it hits somewhere between Mexico and Florida. That should cover my bases!!
According to GREarth, we have a new center taking place near 87W 20N.

Quoting jeffs713:
96L certainly is looking good this morning. I personally lean towards a STX impact, due to 3 major models predicting a westward drift. The GFS looks to be the outlier, thinking that 96L will get picked up and pushed east. I personally have some doubt on the entire forecast, due to the incredibly weak steering currents involved, and the system going into the GOM, which is always unpredictable.

On a more personal note, I *really* hope it does go towards STX as a tropical storm, or towards the big bend area as a tropical storm, as both of those areas desperately need the rain.


I agree with the models. I think it will hit between Veracruz, MX to Key West, FL.
2841. Patrap

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest96
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Floridians percentages on landfall

Florida 75%

Texas 25%

Texans percentages on landfall

Florida 25%

Texas 75 %

Everyone else's percentage on landfall

Who the heck knows where it's going
WOW Rain Rain rain rain rain rain lol
What is the shear at now???
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
According to GREarth, we have a new center taking place near 87W 20N.



Using that I'd say 21 86 but that's not a huge dif
Quoting mgdimarco:
Is it only me or has anyone else noticed the NHC has stopped using surface winds to categorize tropical systems? Not in the last two (or more) years have surface station winds matched the strength reported by the NHC. Irene is perfect example. When declared Cat II hurricane, a bouy right where winds should be peak reported 60 knots max. It wasn't even a hurricane.

What would be the motivation to use altitude winds where no one lives to categorize a storm? The NHC is not doing anyone a favor when storm damage requires an insurance claim and their rigging the category results in the hurricane deductible kicking. Thanks for nothing.


Shut your hole. Once you have taken a tour through the entire NHC building, seen what everybody does, how they do it, THEN come back and comment on them. You know entirely nothing about how the operate.
See, the Canadian shows a type of "split", but not the same as some of the other models. What it's showing is just typical TC vs Trough moisture pumping up over Florida and Georgia, even as the system actually manages to turn west, with the Trough not quite being strong enough or in the right position to actually pick it up.

So what you're looking at is the TC that forms will just feed a huge amount of moisture into the trough and rain on Florida and Georgia anyway, even as SE Louisiana gets absolutely deluged during the "Stall".

In some frames there are on-land rainfall rates above 4 inches per 12 hours, both in Louisiana and Florida, as well as extreme SE Georgia.


Then again, it could be completely wrong and not worth looking at.

That's why I shouldn't focus on models.
2849. hydrus
Quoting ilovehurricanes12:
not good!!
A whole lotta flip flop goin on...GFS is for Floridy.. CIMSS goes to Texas..CMC in the middle.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
What is the shear at now???
2851. Patrap
Debby(-ie?) already has songs...

Link

Link

Link
On the (NHC)ATCF data sheet for TropicalStormChris for 22June6amGMT:
43.2n42.8w had been re-evaluated&altered to 43.3n42.8w*
43.3n42.8w's MinimumPressure had been re-evaluated&altered from 990millibars to 987millibars

Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormChris for 22June12pmGMT:
Its vector* had changed from NNEast at 14.7mph(23.7km/h) to ENEast at 15.5mph(25km/h)
MaxSusWinds had decreased from 50knots(58mph)93km/h to 45knots(52mph)83km/h
And MinimumPressure had increased from 987millibars to 989millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Chris's path... YSV is Saglek,Labrador
YYQ is Sydney,NovaScotia :: YYT SaintJohns,Newfoundland :: AGM is Tasilag,Greenland

The Westernmost dot on the kinked line is where Invest95L became TropicalStormChris.
The Easternmost dot on the kinked line is where TS.Chris became HurricaneChris
The next dot NNEast on the connected line-segment is where H.Chris became TS.Chris again
The Southernmost dot on the longest line is TS.Chris's most recent position.

The longest line-segment is a straightline-projection through TS.Chris's 2 most recent positions to the coastline.
The AGM-dumbell is the endpoint of the 22June12amGMT straightline projection connected to its nearest airport
The YSV-dumbell is the endpoint of the 22June6amGMT straightline projection connected to its nearest airport
On 22June12pmGMT, TS.Chris was headed toward passage over NewHaven,NovaScotia in ~1day21hours from now

Copy&paste yyt, snn-52.849n9.449w, hfn-63.371n13.43w, agm-65.002n39.9w, ysv-60.154n64.411w, yqy, 39.5n58.0w- 38.9n56.7w- 38.3n54.7w- 38.1n52.3w- 38.2n50.2w- 38.6n47.5w- 39.4n45.6w- 40.5n43.9w, 40.5n43.9w-41.9n42.9w, 41.9n42.9w-43.3n42.8w, 43.3n42.8w-44.4n43.7w, 44.4n43.7w-44.8n45.5w, 44.4n43.7w-46.88n60.346w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison.

* Through recalculation using the correct position, the vector has been corrected. BUT...
...to maintain historicity with previous mappings, the straightline projections&endpoints have not.
system.is.getting.nasty.looking
2855. Patrap
This illustrates the problem of trying to accurately predict, models or otherwise, where a storm that has not even formed yet will go. Yesterday all the talk as focused towards TX and now is focused on FL (or anywhere in between).

This is why Gulf storms (or pending ones) are the most nerve wracking ones because of the relatively short lead time once they get going and potential intensity issues if the sheer drops or they hit a warm pool or eddy on the way in.

With that in mind, here is the current position of the big warm pool in the Gulf; this may come in handy later.

Link

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
At least they have this moving faster now.


Hey there AtHome...I am in southeast Texas..not putting much faith in any models this early in the game myself
The convection seems to be expanding some, possibly trying to get under the center... It's a slow process but 96L continues to steadily organize.
2860. Patrap
We're a lot better protected after the almost 7 years of Structure, and High Profile improvements to the Levee Protection System.

Hopefully it will 40 years between majors as it was for Betsy and K.

Vast Defenses Now Shielding New Orleans

By JOHN SCHWARTZ
Published: June 14, 2012


Construction last month on the Seabrook floodgate complex in New Orleans. The overall defense system includes the biggest pumping station on the planet.

NEW ORLEANS %u2014 Finally, there is a wall around this city.

Nearly seven years after flood waters from Hurricane Katrina gushed over New Orleans, $14.5 billion worth of civil works designed to block such surges is now in place a 133-mile chain of levees, flood walls, gates and pumps too vast to take in at once, except perhaps from space.

Individual components of the system can be appreciated from a less celestial elevation. At the new Seabrook floodgate complex, climb up three steep ladders, open a trap door, and step out into the blazing sunlight atop a 54-foot tower that was not here just two years ago. From there one looks out over a $165 million barrier across the shipping canal that links Lake Pontchartrain, the Mississippi River and the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway.

Two lift gates, 50 feet across, can be lowered to block the waters of Lake Pontchartrain. A navigation gate 95 feet wide, whose curved sides weigh 220 tons apiece, can be swung gently but mightily into place. When open which will be most of the time the gates will allow easy boat traffic.

When a storm threatens, however, they will seal off the canal from the kind of surge that devastated the Lower Ninth Ward in Katrina.

Yet all that seems puny in comparison to the two-mile Great Wall that can seal off the channel from Lake Borgne to the east, or the billion-dollar west closure complex, which features the biggest pumping station on the planet.

Now, hurricane season has returned, as it does each June. Whatever storms might approach New Orleans this year or in the future, they will encounter a vastly upgraded ring of protection. The question is whether it will be enough.

When Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005, the city's hurricane protection system became a symbol of America's haphazard approach to critical infrastructure. The patchwork of walls and levees built over the course of 40 years was still far from complete when the storm came, and even the Army Corps of Engineers admitted that this was a system in name only. Flood walls collapsed, and earthen levees built from sandy, dredged soils melted away.

What has emerged since could come to symbolize the opposite: a vast civil works project that gives every appearance of strength and permanence. No other American city has anything like it. This is the best system the greater New Orleans area has ever had said Col. Edward R. Fleming, the commander of the New Orleans district of the corps.

Marc Walraven, a district head in the Dutch ministry of transport, public works and water management, recently toured the defenses. While 100 percent safety is impossible, he said, and challenges in operations and maintenance can be expected as the corps passes the facilities over to local management in the coming year, the constructions that have been built are in my opinion adequate to defend New Orleans.

Tim Doody, the president of the levee board that oversees Orleans and St. Bernard Parishes, disagrees. While the construction appears to be strong, he said, the level of protection authorized by Congress for the corps to build is woefully inadequate.

The new system was designed and constructed to provide what is informally known as 100-year protection, which means it was built to prevent the kind of flooding that has a 1 percent chance of occurring in any given year. That standard is used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to determine whether homeowners and businesses must buy flood insurance to qualify for federally regulated or insured mortgages.

But New Orleans has seen storms far more damaging than the 100-year standard. Katrina is generally considered to have been a 400-year storm, and rising seas and more numerous hurricanes predicted in many climate-change models suggest harsher conditions to come.

It's what the country will pay for; it's what FEMA insures for,%u201D Mr. Doody said. But our thought and belief is that we all need to be behind protection thats greater than that.

Still, corps officials insist, the new system has been designed with far greater strength and resiliency than anything that went before it. While a major storm could lead to street flooding something New Orleans, much of which is below sea level, sees even with heavy rainfall the kind of catastrophic, explosive wall of water resulting from the failure of sections of flood wall and the dissolution of poorly-built levees that devastated so much of the city after Katrina should not occur again, they say.
2861. icmoore
Quoting LargoFl:
yes, we along the immediate gulf coast might get a piece of that heavy rain later on,im 3 1/2 miles from the coastline..roof gutters cleaned and waiting lol


I am about a block from Gulf Blvd so the Gulf is just across the street from there.
Miami NWS Update

UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING EAST INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT PULLING THE TROUGH NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ALONG WITH THE PWAT INCREASING FROM 2.1 INCHES THIS MORNING TO 2.3
INCHES BY TONIGHT.

THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) IS ALSO SHOWING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS LATE THIS MORNING THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER REST OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE RAISED TODAY TO 70
PERCENT NORTH TO 80 PERCENT SOUTH ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE OVER THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE POPS WILL ALSO BE RAISED TONIGHT TO 70 TO 80 PERCENT OVER THE
CWA...DUE TO THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE
TROUGH OVER THE CWA SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD.
2864. 7544
looks like the blob could 50 mph winds in there ?
Quoting kwgirl:
Congrats Daddy. Is this your first? Girls are special and she will have you wrapped in no time LOL>
First baby!
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
25% Texas

75% Florida lol


The recent models shown here on WU say 95% FL now... and those are center initialized models using a CoC that looks too far west from where it wants to relocate now.
Quoting 7544:
looks like the blob could 50 mph winds in there ?

Just cut that number in half and we're good.
Quoting mgdimarco:
Is it only me or has anyone else noticed the NHC has stopped using surface winds to categorize tropical systems? Not in the last two (or more) years have surface station winds matched the strength reported by the NHC. Irene is perfect example. When declared Cat II hurricane, a bouy right where winds should be peak reported 60 knots max. It wasn't even a hurricane.

What would be the motivation to use altitude winds where no one lives to categorize a storm? The NHC is not doing anyone a favor when storm damage requires an insurance claim and their rigging the category results in the hurricane deductible kicking in. Thanks for nothing.


One buoy failing to find max winds doesn't mean a thing.

Ever heard of a false negative?

The strongest band might have missed the buoy by a mile or ten, and sometimes that's all it takes with a TC, especially near the eye wall, because you can have no wind in the eye, or you can have a lull between the outer part of the eye wall and the first band outwards.

60kts winds probably means the buoy was in the first rain bad outside the eye wall, instead of the actual eye wall.

And no, you can't trust the satellite for exact positioning above about 30N due to foreshortening caused by the Earth's curvature.
2869. hydrus
Large wave about to leave Africa..
lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sure. Just cut that number in half.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
so little Debbie is going to FL because it is going on Vacation!!
If Debby becomes a major problem I won't be buying snacks from them for a whole year!!!.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sure. Just cut that number in half.


25!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
According to GREarth, we have a new center taking place near 87W 20N.



How would that change the track?
Quoting StormHype:


The recent models shown here on WU say 95% FL now... and those are center initialized models using a CoC that looks too far west from where it wants to relocate now.


sure screw the cmc euro and Nogaps throw em out the window lol
Quoting 7544:
looks like the blob could 50 mph winds in there ?

Possibly in some of the stronger thunderstorms, but sustained winds closer to the center are no more than 30mph as ATCF suggests.
lol
Quoting washingtonian115:
If Debby becomes a major problem I won't be buying snacks from them for a whole year!!!.
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


How would that change the track?


It is a further south location. so i would say increase texas chances as the timing of the trough dip would be off and have a weaker effect.
Quoting StormHype:


The recent models shown here on WU say 95% FL now... and those are center initialized models using a CoC that looks too far west from where it wants to relocate now.


Good I'm wishcasting this mess away from my area.
Quoting weatherh98:


It is a further south location. so i would say increase texas chances as the timing of the trough dip would be off and have a weaker effect.


It's going to hit Texas!
2880. Patrap
Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

..click image for Loop


Go to me in S FL lol
Quoting mynameispaul:


Good I'm wishcasting this mess away from my area.
is it just meor is EVERYONE with INTERESTS on the system wishcasting
Quoting mynameispaul:


Good I'm wishcasting this mess away from my area.


Hey Paul!
2884. hydrus
I still see a couple of low centers in there. Some people here knew this would happen over a week ago.
Quoting weatherh98:


sure screw the cmc euro and Nogaps throw em out the window lol
Yup throw them out as the 12z will shift on those models as the TVCN which is usually in line with the euro cuts this right across C FL.
No it going to S FL lol jk
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


It's going to hit Texas!
so who thinks we will have ernesto by july 13th??
Quoting weatherh98:


sure screw the cmc euro and Nogaps throw em out the window lol


For one, those are large scale models not 'storm' center initialized ones. Further, out of those three u listed, the EURO is the only one worth a serious mention. CMC and NOGAPS are for entertainment purposes only.
Quoting weatherh98:


It is a further south location. so i would say increase texas chances as the timing of the trough dip would be off and have a weaker effect.


No not at all this. The key here is its further east so it will feel the influence of the trough more.
2890. 7544
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Possibly in some of the stronger thunderstorms, but sustained winds closer to the center are no more than 30mph as ATCF suggests.


yeap thanks its starting to get a nice round look now not as longgated as this am trying to come together
Is Chris just sucking up an Exta-tropical storm?
I find it hard to believe that some people are just throwing out the most reliable model we have, the ECMWF... sure it makes mistakes like the rest of them do, but a TX/LA landfall remain just as good, if not better a possibility than a FL landfall.
Also the TVCN is the NHC track.
Quoting weatherh98:


It is a further south location. so i would say increase texas chances as the timing of the trough dip would be off and have a weaker effect.

I see the circulation that is going to TX. Now I'm trying to see the other circulation that's going to FL start noticably spinning, but there's too much convection in the way.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
First baby!


I'm thinking future Debby is going to probably hit Tampa and head straight to C-FL with a good 10-20" rain swath, what do you think? I'm in wekiva springs near Orlando, been picking up much needed rain, we are officially in the 'rainy season'! May go stock up on supplies if 96L gets better organized, this could be a serious situation for CFL!!
I say that we discard the recent runs of the GFS. Not only does it suffer from convective feedback (unrealistically splitting the system into due to the fact it doesn't know how to consolidate the low thanks to its monsoonal origins) but it continues to over-amplify the trough. The ECMWF solution seems best right now, maybe a tad north.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Yup throw them out as the 12z will shift on those models as the TVCN which is usually in line with the euro cuts this right across C FL.


you mean over your house?
2898. icmoore
Quoting weatherh98:
is it just meor is EVERYONE with INTERESTS on the system wishcasting


I don't want it!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I say that we discard the recent runs of the GFS. Not only does it suffer from convective feedback (unrealistically splitting the system into due to the fact it doesn't know how to consolidate the low thanks to its monsoonal origins) but it continues to over-amplify the trough. The ECMWF solution seems best right now, maybe a tad north.


AMEN
A new COC might form off the SW Tip of Cuba...if that happens as it appears to be doing then the Models are fouled and will need new runs with a new COC. My guess that would then put SW Florida into play like Naples! LOok how the BAM models just shifted...
Quoting weatherh98:


you mean over your house?


Yeah i'm thinking this is def a CFL storm. Im in wekiva springs and i called the Melbourne NWS and got some info. They are thinking this could be a good rain maker for us here in Wekiva Springs. Got 3.43" yesterday!
Cantore seems to think this thing is going west into Texas. Also, the relocation of the center will have a huge role today.
When do we see if recon is a go?
Quoting icmoore:


I don't want it!!


That's a form of wish casting hahaa
Quoting TampaSpin:
A new COC might form off the SW Tip of Cuba...if that happens as it appears to be doing then the Models are fouled and will need new runs with a new COC. My guess that would then put SW Florida into play like Naples! LOok how the BAM models just shifted...


That ain't a reliable run!
2906. divdog
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Cantore seems to think this thing is going west into Texas. Also, the relocation of the center will have a huge role today.
That should tell u it is not going to Texas.
2907. hydrus
Decent wave about to exit the African Coast.
Quoting txbullseye:

Hey there AtHome...I am in southeast Texas..not putting much faith in any models this early in the game myself


Hi TX. SE TX explains your WU handle perfectly. lol. I'm not believing the models right now either. Waiting to find out why the HPC changed their graphic from this morning's when they had the low sitting in the mid gulf throughout. Apparently the discussions take longer. :)
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Also the TVCN is the NHC track.


Heard you live in CFL too? I'm thinking the models will shift towards the CFL solution as well, we shall see.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
When do we see if recon is a go?


10:30 AM
2911. Patrap
I been noticing a blogger that pretty much says lol in most cpmments and quoting...need to write something more than lol! :P
The models are like a pendulum; they sway back and forth between Tx/Mexico and Florida.

I hope once a COC is initialized as center point for modeling that Texas gets the tropical mositure as they need some rain.

We don't need it that much in Florida-thankfully.
Quoting weatherh98:


sure screw the cmc euro and Nogaps throw em out the window lol


the models will change many more times my friend all you people from florida should know that by now..
Quoting weatherh98:
is it just meor is EVERYONE with INTERESTS on the system wishcasting


A LOT of people need rain, being anywhere from below average to various levels of drought, so we're all sort of hoping for rain.

It would be amazing if the CoC somehow went right over Mississippi and Alabama, as long as it's TS or weaker, because then Georgia would get the wet side and maybe break their drought. But that probably wouldn't happen unless it stalled a ridiculously long time.
Quoting Hurricanes305:


No not at all this. The key here is its further east so it will feel the influence of the trough more.


These are both good points (both the south and east prognostications.) Going to have to keep a good on on the vis loop today to see where the center really may be coming together.
2917. Patrap

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-034

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 22/1600Z
D. 23.0N 89.0W
E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A MISSION
AT 23/1800Z NEAR 24.5N 89.0W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
2918. 7544
if its going to fla it might just come in on the west coast area where wilma did then cross over to se fla ill say 50/50 on that path
2919. hydrus
2920. Times2
It seems that over the past 3 or 4 years there is always a Strong Ridge High over the Northern Gulf States that wants to have it's say. Also it seems that as a storm develops in intensity as did Rita and Kat and a few others did the High has to take a bow. The stronger the storm the more it has its way...to the North usually. Noone is even talking about a North West track and almost never do when there is a Strong Ridge. I say don't be surprised if this one makes a move toward the La/Texas border at some point. All depends on duration and intensity. I know that is kinda of a "duh" statement but...w/e lol.
Quoting divdog:
That should tell u it is not going to Texas.


lol why is that?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
When do we see if recon is a go?


recon is a go when they ok the flight..no lol i heard it was going out at 1400
Quoting Patrap:


Would be surprised at all to see a new center finally forming about 30 mile NE of Cozumel.
2924. Gorty
It should start to organize when it enters the GOM. As long if it doesnt run into land too fast.
In my opinion, recon will be scrubbed for today.

96L is poorly organized, with possible multiple surface centers and very poorly organized convection. It will need some serious time to get it's act back together.
2926. divdog
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


lol why is that?
TWC is in this for ratings not for good science.
I think if 96L move rapidly to the north , will trend to go west of florida but if he develop is not rapidly and his movement also, a think the jet stream not going to be very hard to catch

So this are my theories:

-Moves fast to the North,Rapid Intesificacion, goes to Florida.(GFS)

-Moves Slow to the north,slow in develop,but if will stay in the gulf will develop, for some day and for me could be a cat.1 hurricane if he stay in the gulf,goes to Texas or New orleans. (NOGAPS,ECMWF,CMC)

what do you think guys?
Quoting Times2:
It seems that over the past 3 or 4 years theer is always a Strong Ridge High over the Northern Gulf States that wants to have it's say. Also it seems that as a storm develops in intensity as did Rita and Kat and a few others did the High has to take a bow. The stronger the storm the more it has its way...to the North usually. Noone is even talking about a North West track and almost never do when there is a Strong Ridge. I say don't be surprised if this one makes a move toward the La/Texas border at some point. All depends on duration and intensity. I know that is kinda of a "duh" statement but...w/e lol.


Sounds reasonable. From what I've read the more disorganized it stays the higher chance of an E/NE track? If it spins up and organizes maybe more chance of a more northerly track?
So far the RECON plan hasn't been updated for day indicating otherwise so atm recon is go with wheels up at 12pm. That might change, but right now that's what we're looking at.
Quoting divdog:
TWC is in this for ratings not for good science.


I understand that. TWC says Florida. Cantore is saying he doesn't think it will hit Florida. They even have a conflict amongst themselves lol.
Quoting divdog:
That should tell u it is not going to Texas.


i have to disagree man right now and before recon flies into sooned to be debby texas has this over florida...florida is gaining no ground on texas...so texas like 60% la miss and alabama 30 % and florida 10%..
Quoting Jeff9631:


I'm thinking future Debby is going to probably hit Tampa and head straight to C-FL with a good 10-20" rain swath, what do you think? I'm in wekiva springs near Orlando, been picking up much needed rain, we are officially in the 'rainy season'! May go stock up on supplies if 96L gets better organized, this could be a serious situation for CFL!!


Tampa is a nice place for Debbie to visit.
2934. divdog
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


I understand that. TWC says Florida. Cantore is saying he doesn't think it will hit Florida. They even have a conflict amongst themselves lol.
And u know why FOR THE RATINGS. Thats all Cantore is looking for
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
414 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
THE DETAILS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY DOWN TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
GENERAL MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL/NE GULF OF
MEXICO BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...THE GUIDANCE SUITE
IS IN AGREEMENT KEEPING THE LOW CENTER (REGARDLESS OF STRENGTH) TO
THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST WATERS...WHICH RESULTS IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA AROUND THE CIRCULATION. FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED THE
WIND SPEEDS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO THE SYSTEM
UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER STRONGER WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF SHOULD THIS SYSTEM BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND
MARINERS ARE URGED TO STAY UPDATED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS. THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW...RESULTING COLUMN MOISTURE...AND CYCLONIC FORCING ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO KEEP OUR FORECAST ON
THE WET SIDE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN
SOLUTION/TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM. THE GFS IS THE LEAST
PROGRESSIVE AND LEAVES THE SYSTEM VIRTUALLY STALLED TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE MS DELTA. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN BOTH BEGIN A SLOW DRIFT TO THE
WEST FROM THIS POSITION TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/TEXAS
COAST. THESE DIFFERING SOLUTION ARE THE RESULT OF SOME VERY SUBTLE
CHANGES IN COLUMN STEERING...AND IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO POINT TO
ANY GIVEN SOLUTION AS THE CORRECT ONE. WITH TIME...INTO THE MIDDLE
AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH WILL TEND TO
DRIFT THE CENTER OF LOWEST PRESSURE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. WITH
THIS IN MIND WILL TAPER THE LIKELY POPS ON MONDAY BACK TOWARD A MORE
DIURNAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL CYCLE FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPS ON MONDAY DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE TRENDED BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.
I don't see why recon would go today... There's no way 96L is a TD yet, a mission now would be a total waste... They should send out recon tomorrow when organization should be better.
Quoting divdog:
That should tell u it is not going to Texas.


Yep. If Santore is on your beach you are safe. Storms seem to hit the other TWC guys.
2938. wpb
think recon flight to 96l will be canceled today???

I'm thinking the center to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula will dissipate as the new low-level center forms near the island of Cozumel. If this were to occur, 96L would likely begin to act its act together quickly.
central fl here too. this def. is a wait and see game, as there is no sure Coc under convection and that flareup off to the east of the yucatan makes things really interesting. hope we will see more certainty later today. gonna be on my guard cuz this is in the GoM and that is always hairy!
2941. Patrap
Wheels up is 18Z or NOON EDT, so we should know soon.
Quoting pensacolastorm:


Yep. If Santore is on your beach you are safe. Storms seem to hit the other TWC guys.

You've got that mixed up lol.

Quoting DavidHOUTX:


lol why is that?

Because where cantor goes the storm goes the opposite, you recon being a weather guy he could atleast get into an eye wall once in his life.
2944. hydrus
Quoting CybrTeddy:
So far the RECON plan hasn't been updated for day indicating otherwise so atm recon is go with wheels up at 12pm. That might change, but right now that's what we're looking at.



They should run the mission just for the heck of it, to get some real data, regardless of how poor the system looks.

I'm sick of guessing what's going on, and the models absolutely suck.
Man there is alot of wishcasting on here... people saying a named storm, which dosnt event exist, is to hit cities in FL like Tampa... This is madness, please stop providing false information.
2948. wpb
can the center reform in the area of heavy rains tothe east
RAP has a very sharp wind shift near Cozumel now.
Quoting RTSplayer:



They should run the mission just for the heck of it, to get some real data, regardless of how poor the system looks.

I'm sick of guessing what's going on, and the models absolutely suck.

That's the spirit!
2951. GetReal
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
RAP has a very sharp wind shift near Cozumel now.


FULL
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You've got that mixed up lol.



Now that is funny!
looking at this radar (not real good at all lol) not seeing much by way of development of a low under all that convection, but the radar is choppy at best:

Link

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I don't see why recon would go today... There's no way 96L is a TD yet, a mission now would be a total waste... They should send out recon tomorrow when organization should be better.
I agree, in fact the 70% maybe a little high right now for the next 48 hrs.  I think we are seeing the exact same song and dance as yesterday.  Convection along the trough is already puttering out and we have about half dozen swirls around one very broad area of low pressure.

Quoting seriousman1:


i have to disagree man right now and before recon flies into sooned to be debby texas has this over florida...florida is gaining no ground on texas...so texas like 60% la miss and alabama 30 % and florida 10%..
can you back up your opinion with any kind of facts or are you just guessing/trolling?

I have no idea where this thing is going, but you don't see me posting percentages of different landfall scenarios
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


FULL
There we go...
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
In my opinion, recon will be scrubbed for today.

96L is poorly organized, *****with possible multiple surface centers****** and very poorly organized convection. It will need some serious time to get it's act back together.

Yesterday there was one huge circulation, now you see one much smaller swirl already halfway to TX, and I'm waiting on the one SE of that one to get its own spin going.

I think the circ was just too big to be viable, had to split itself.
96L is relocoating near Cozemel!
Quoting hydrus:
I still see a couple of low centers in there. Some people here knew this would happen over a week ago.
yes...I remember.

It's amazing to me the variables and countless possibilities that it takes for a cyclone to mature. What are we on day 7 or 8 watching this?? day 20 watching models showing this?

The vertical weather picture is what most don't see.

It's why I come here to learn

What's crazy with 96 is that she is acting like an upper level type of low with the plume of moisture to the east and mini vorticies firing here and there. The actual trough axis N. of the Yucatan just does not seem like where Debby wants to form. Time will tell.
Good morning.
I see 96L is giving everyone a headache.
This is what's left of Chris:
2962. Patrap
POD just Updated


Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 221415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-035

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 23/1615Z
D. 25.5N 888.5W
E. 23/1715Z TO 23/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 --
A. 24/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 24/1015Z
D. 27.1N 88.5W
E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARK: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR 22/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 22/1230Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


FULL
That looks much better. Very cold cloud tops.
I had to do it... LOL
I visit the NHC site out of curiosity and see 96L is pegged at 70% for formation now. Interesting. I took some time to see why, and I can kind of agree with them on that. Might be a little high but who am I to judge them. I'll be monitoring this one carefully.
Recon:

3. REMARK: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR 22/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 22/1230Z.
2967. Patrap
3. REMARK: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR 22/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 22/1230Z.
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-035

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 23/1615Z
D. 25.5N 888.5W
E. 23/1715Z TO 23/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 --
A. 24/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 24/1015Z
D. 27.1N 88.5W
E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARK: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR 22/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 22/1230Z.
Who knows where a good COC will consolidate but looking at the hi-rs loops, I am starting to see some rotation right on the leading edge of the main convective complex right around 24N-86W. Whether this area is the one that emerges victorious (it is well to east of the tip of the Yucatan) is yet to be seen but it is headed in the direction of that weaker area of sheer and trying to wrap come convection.

Here is the NHC still shot (I can't post my hi-res vis loop but someone on here will)

Link
2970. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:
Looks like at least one of the low centers is meandering over the northern tip of the Yucatan. There is a weaker low north of the western tip of Cuba...Hard to see here..P.S. There may be high pressure trying to build over this thing.
Ah they did call off the recon then. Probably was a bit early, but this still has potential no doubt.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
RECON CANCELLED:

3. REMARK: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR 22/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 22/1230Z.


NNNOOOOOOOOOOOO
Quoting Patrap:
3. REMARK: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR 22/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 22/1230Z.

So whats this mean?
As expected, shear is abating with deep convection firing in the N and W quadrants.

2975. pcola57
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


FULL


Wow thats alot of convection...
If that was in the US land mass that would be quite a large mess not to mention the attention it would get..
I wounder how much rain Cuba?Yuctan has already gotten from this..
Anyone have a precip. total?
Quoting LegoMyEggo:
Man there is alot of wishcasting on here... people saying a named storm, which dosnt event exist, is to hit cities in FL like Tampa... This is madness, please stop providing false information.


great post i agree this should not be happening..florida is not in the mix anyway...
Well my spin on things today. Levi mentioned that 850 mb height low that is in the central gulf, it is obvious. There is a strong 500mb low around the Yucatan. The 850 would be the one to develop but the shear is to high. Convergence, divergence and shear are just right between Cuba and the Yucatan. I think the final small tropical system and I'm talking geographically is going to be just northeast of the Yucatan. Unfortunate how strong it gets will probably determine it's course. If I was going to guess mid-Fl. Now if the system hasn't already formed and hit where ever it's going before i finish this typing, Thanks.
Will be an interesting mission for HHs today I think.
2981. Patrap
Quoting Articuno:

So whats this mean?


It means today's Mission at 18Z to investigate 96L is cancelled.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
RECON CANCELLED:

3. REMARK: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR 22/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 22/1230Z.

In the short term I don't see this developing.
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

In the short term I don't see this developing.


Probably not for another 24 hours.
Quoting Articuno:

So whats this mean?
This means they aren't going to fly into 96l at this time. It is obvious per satellite and radar data that the system isn't developed enough yet to get any useful data out of the recon flight.

The system must develop a dominate low level circulation before the models will be any good
Quoting StormTracker2K:
First baby!

Congrats. You should teach her to point at you and say, "OWNED!" as soon as possible.

It was a real time-saver in our house.
Quoting hydrus:
Looks like at least one of the low centers is meandering over the northern tip of the Yucatan. There is a weaker low north of the western tip of Cuba...Hard to see here..P.S. There may be high pressure trying to build over this thing.
looking at precipitable water motion, i buy the winner being north off the tip of Yucatan.. consolidation throughout the day bringing COC there
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2988. Gorty
GFS has a weak-moderate TS to FL.

nogaps has it as a weak TS heading to Mexico.

SREF is crazy wow. Has it meandering. Then idk where it will take it, model run ended.

cmc has is close to hurricane and on the coastline of LA and on east to Panhandle of FL then it has it going over to TX.
Quoting seriousman1:


great post i agree this should not be happening..florida is not in the mix anyway...


How do you figure? All of the Gulf Coast is a possibility, and most models show 96 on a path toward Central Florida at the moment.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Will be an interesting mission for HHs today I think.


Yeah... they'll be gathered around pitchers of brew at Hooter's by noon..... cause they got scrubbed.
2991. wpb
a reformation to the east in the heavy rain and ts would kickstart development
Quoting Stoopid1:


How do you figure? All of the Gulf Coast is a possibility, and most models show 96 on a path toward Central Florida at the moment.
Ignore him. If he were to back up his opinions with some type of facts then he deserves a space on this blog.
Quoting wpb:
a reformation to the east in the heavy rain and ts would kickstart development
We were saying this yesterday too lol.
Quoting seriousman1:


great post i agree this should not be happening..florida is not in the mix anyway...
And besides, Tampa has the shield should anything head their way.
Quoting pensacolastorm:


Yep. If Santore is on your beach you are safe. Storms seem to hit the other TWC guys.

Cantore was in Houma for Gustav. Right smack in the middle of it.
2996. dearmas
Quoting Jeff9631:


Heard you live in CFL too? I'm thinking the models will shift towards the CFL solution as well, we shall see.

Im in C Fl (Pasco County, Wesley Chapel Fl)
2997. yoboi
Quoting Patrap:
We're a lot better protected after the almost 7 years of Structure, and High Profile improvements to the Levee Protection System.

Hopefully it will 40 years between majors as it was for Betsy and K.

Vast Defenses Now Shielding New Orleans

By JOHN SCHWARTZ
Published: June 14, 2012


Construction last month on the Seabrook floodgate complex in New Orleans. The overall defense system includes the biggest pumping station on the planet.

NEW ORLEANS %u2014 Finally, there is a wall around this city.

Nearly seven years after flood waters from Hurricane Katrina gushed over New Orleans, $14.5 billion worth of civil works designed to block such surges is now in place a 133-mile chain of levees, flood walls, gates and pumps too vast to take in at once, except perhaps from space.

Individual components of the system can be appreciated from a less celestial elevation. At the new Seabrook floodgate complex, climb up three steep ladders, open a trap door, and step out into the blazing sunlight atop a 54-foot tower that was not here just two years ago. From there one looks out over a $165 million barrier across the shipping canal that links Lake Pontchartrain, the Mississippi River and the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway.

Two lift gates, 50 feet across, can be lowered to block the waters of Lake Pontchartrain. A navigation gate 95 feet wide, whose curved sides weigh 220 tons apiece, can be swung gently but mightily into place. When open which will be most of the time the gates will allow easy boat traffic.

When a storm threatens, however, they will seal off the canal from the kind of surge that devastated the Lower Ninth Ward in Katrina.

Yet all that seems puny in comparison to the two-mile Great Wall that can seal off the channel from Lake Borgne to the east, or the billion-dollar west closure complex, which features the biggest pumping station on the planet.

Now, hurricane season has returned, as it does each June. Whatever storms might approach New Orleans this year or in the future, they will encounter a vastly upgraded ring of protection. The question is whether it will be enough.

When Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005, the city's hurricane protection system became a symbol of America's haphazard approach to critical infrastructure. The patchwork of walls and levees built over the course of 40 years was still far from complete when the storm came, and even the Army Corps of Engineers admitted that this was a system in name only. Flood walls collapsed, and earthen levees built from sandy, dredged soils melted away.

What has emerged since could come to symbolize the opposite: a vast civil works project that gives every appearance of strength and permanence. No other American city has anything like it. This is the best system the greater New Orleans area has ever had said Col. Edward R. Fleming, the commander of the New Orleans district of the corps.

Marc Walraven, a district head in the Dutch ministry of transport, public works and water management, recently toured the defenses. While 100 percent safety is impossible, he said, and challenges in operations and maintenance can be expected as the corps passes the facilities over to local management in the coming year, the constructions that have been built are in my opinion adequate to defend New Orleans.

Tim Doody, the president of the levee board that oversees Orleans and St. Bernard Parishes, disagrees. While the construction appears to be strong, he said, the level of protection authorized by Congress for the corps to build is woefully inadequate.

The new system was designed and constructed to provide what is informally known as 100-year protection, which means it was built to prevent the kind of flooding that has a 1 percent chance of occurring in any given year. That standard is used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to determine whether homeowners and businesses must buy flood insurance to qualify for federally regulated or insured mortgages.

But New Orleans has seen storms far more damaging than the 100-year standard. Katrina is generally considered to have been a 400-year storm, and rising seas and more numerous hurricanes predicted in many climate-change models suggest harsher conditions to come.

It's what the country will pay for; it's what FEMA insures for,%u201D Mr. Doody said. But our thought and belief is that we all need to be behind protection thats greater than that.

Still, corps officials insist, the new system has been designed with far greater strength and resiliency than anything that went before it. While a major storm could lead to street flooding something New Orleans, much of which is below sea level, sees even with heavy rainfall the kind of catastrophic, explosive wall of water resulting from the failure of sections of flood wall and the dissolution of poorly-built levees that devastated so much of the city after Katrina should not occur again, they say.




wow so nola is safe to what storm surge?
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
96L is relocoating near Cozemel!


I was saying that from early this morning.
New to this site...very interesting!
Quoting txcoastgirl:
New to this site...very interesting!

Welcome