WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance and the June hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:52 PM GMT on June 01, 2007

A large area of disturbed weather continues over the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure. There is no circulation evident on QuikSCAT, satellite loops, or the Tampa Bay radar. Wind shear is about 20-40 knots, which is unfavorable for tropical storm formation. The shear is expected to remain high over the storm for the next few days, and I don't expect it to develop into a tropical depression. However, the storm has a lot of tropical moisture with it, and it should bring rains of 1-3 inches over western Cuba and much of Florida over the next two days, as well as the threat of 50 mph wind gusts and a few weak tornadoes. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system at 2pm EDT today.


Figure 1. Total rainfall from the Key West radar.

June outlook
June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. The basin averages 0.5 named storms in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the 12 years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been nine June named storms. Four tropical storms have formed in the first half of June in that 12-year period, giving a historical 33% chance of a first-half-of-June named storm.


Figure 1. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes since 1851.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are still quite cool in June, which limits the regions where tropical storm formation can occur. Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest (Figure 1). This year (Figure 2), SSTs are below average in the region surrounding Florida, so we should expect any storms that do form to occur in the Western Gulf of Mexico or Western Caribbean. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. Every so often, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa moves far enough north to act as a seed for a June tropical storm. Another possibility is that the disturbed weather area in the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) will push north into the Western Caribbean and spawn a storm there. This was the case for last year's Tropical Storm Alberto (which may have also had help from an African wave).


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for May 31, 2007.

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
It's not just the SSTs that are important for hurricanes, it's also the total amount of heat in the ocean to a depth of about 150 meters. Hurricanes stir up water from down deep due to their high winds, so a shallow layer of warm water isn't as beneficial to a hurricane as a deep one. The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP, Figure 3) is a measure of this total heat content. A high TCHP over 80 is very beneficial to rapid intensification. As we can see, there is much less heat energy available this year than in 2005, which recorded the highest SSTs ever measured in the tropical Atlantic. I expect that the TCHP will continue to remain below 2005 levels this year, so we should not see as many intense hurricane as we saw in 2005.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for May 31 2005 (top) and May 31 2007 (bottom). TCHP is a measure of the total heat energy available in the ocean. Record high values of TCHP were observed in 2005. TCHP this year is much lower. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart.

Wind shear over the past 11 days (Figure 4) has been very high over North America and the surrounding waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic. This is very typical for June, when the jet stream is still very active and quite far south. The jet stream will gradually weaken and retreat northwards as summer progresses, bringing lower wind shear and greater chances for tropical storm formation. Right now, the Caribbean is the only region with wind shear low enough to support tropical storm formation. The latest two-week forecast from the GFS model predicts that wind shear will remain high over the Gulf of Mexico for the first half of June, and I don't expect and tropical storms to form in the Gulf the next two weeks. Wind shear over the Caribbean is expected to fluctuate between hostile and favorable levels over the next two weeks, so it is possible we could get a tropical storm forming in the Western Caribbean.


Figure 4. Top: Average wind shear over the past 11 days. Wind shear is the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude) in meters per second (multiply by two to get the approximate wind shear in knots). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots (10 m/s, the blue colors in the top image) will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots (6 m/s, the orange colors) is very conducive for tropical storm formation.
Bottom: Departure of wind shear from average for the past 11 days in meters per second. Note the higher than average wind shear values over the Gulf of Mexico, a prime breeding ground for June tropical storms.

Dry air and African dust
It's too early to concern ourselves with dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, since these dust outbreaks don't make it all the way to the June tropical cyclone breeding grounds in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Developing storms do have to contend with dry air from Canada moving off the U.S. coast; this was a key reason why this year's Subtropical Storm Andrea never became a tropical storm.

Steering currents
The steering current pattern over the past few weeks has been much like 2006, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms of hurricanes that penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and there is no telling if we are in for a repeat of the favorable 2006 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea. It is encouraging to note that in 2006 the steering current pattern locked into place in late May and stayed that way for almost the entirety of the hurricane season. I am hopeful that this pattern will occur again this year, but there is no way of telling at this point.

Summary
Recent history suggests a 33% chance of a named storm occurring in the first half of June. Given the current SST pattern and two-week wind shear forecast, the Western Caribbean is the most likely area for a storm to occur. Any storm forming in this region would likely move north or northeastward, impacting Cuba, Florida, and the Bahamas. Due to the high levels of wind shear expected over the next two weeks, I'm forecasting only a 20% chance of a named storm forming during this period.

Radio play
National Public Radio's The Story program will be airing a long interview with me today about my flight into Hurricane Hugo in 1989. The show is carried on NPR stations in MI, WI, IL, IN, IA, MN, NC, NY, VA, and WI, and airs live today at 1pm or 8pm EDT. Check http://thestory.org/Stations for local stations and times. You can also listen live on the Internet at NPR station wunc.org in North Carolina. The host, Dick Gordon, is a very gifted interviewer, and it should be an interesting program.

Last night, I was guest on the Barometer Bob Show. You can listen to a podcast of my 50-minute spiel at http://www.barometerbobshow.com/podcast/.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

great links 1900Hurricane!!
can someone repost the John Anderson Video again.
Got sideways rain in WPB Fla. YeHaaaaaaaaa
Posted By: Drakoen at 3:58 PM EDT on June 01, 2007. (hide)
it is a TD. just waiting for NHC to confirm it.

No its not its a TS at 5pm already confirmed by NHC staff winds will probably be around 40-50 range.
How would it be near the tampa area it will be push east, and the COC is barely over the western tip of cuba?
Apocalypse2... I want this thing as much as you do, I'm sure. But...I just cant think of any reason it would move west. Care to explain your idea to me?
Forget shear now, what are the currents like the next few days?! I can definetly see some rotation and a struggle to organize on the GOES Float#2...North of the western tip of Cuba.
Link

Get ready panhandle and gulf coast, because there is no monster easterly shear like what happened to Wilma in 2005.

Whatchall' think?
Ok guys. Let's not argue about this ok. The NHC will do its job and name accordingly.
I'm pulling all of those loops from this page. There are many cool loops that you can watch this possible Barry with.

: )
hurricane23 at 3:58 PM EDT on June 01, 2007.
Posted By: weatherboykris at 3:56 PM EDT on June 01, 2007. (hide)
We have "NONAME" on NRL,it's a TD.

Negative Barry at 5pm already confirmed .



Would it be right at 5pm??
I would be too surprised the leftovers of Barbara make their way up into the SE also. Natures way. Barry could get a MVP or MVC award this yr. "most valuable cyclone"
Great page 1900, I love the overlays,☺ but for detailed views I really like the GHCC.
To post before the NHC does is bad form if I may say. One cannot suppose to be privy here. Its not good form at all.
OK-

What is the official word on this thing? Has it been made official it's a TD, TS, or a subtropical entity? I've been on and off the blog today, so it's been difficult to keep up. Thanks.
the heavy convection is expanding near the COC. NHC is contemplating as we speak. Even if this system make landfall in Tampa most of the rain will be in Central and South Florida.
515. RL3AO
Welcome TD2/Barry
Posted By: stormchasher at 4:01 PM EDT on June 01, 2007.

hurricane23 at 3:58 PM EDT on June 01, 2007.
Posted By: weatherboykris at 3:56 PM EDT on June 01, 2007. (hide)
We have "NONAME" on NRL,it's a TD.

Negative Barry at 5pm already confirmed .



Would it be right at 5pm??

I expect the advisory to be coming in between 4:45 to 5pm.
Nothing is or has been released since the recon Vortex package was sent to the NHC.
any thinking the leftovers of Barbara will reform in the atlantic?
WPBF in West Palm has a news crew at the NHC they said it is a TS Barry but they are not sure if it is tropical or sub.
Thanks for the link SJ!

: )
good Drakoen we need the rain down here in south Fl
Drak, the GFDL takes it a little more northerly as of the 12z run.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 8:00 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 3:58 PM EDT on June 01, 2007. (hide)
it is a TD. just waiting for NHC to confirm it.

No its not its a TS at 5pm already confirmed by NHC staff winds will probably be around 40-50 range.

ah ok sry i didn't see. OK Tropical Storm Berry! 60 mph winds projected to go somewhere near Tampa bay with most of the moisture to the south of the system.
524. RL3AO
Welcome Barry!
The Navy has called it "2 Noname" and we've seen nothing official from the NHC. That's where we stand now.
i am so confused is it or is it not
does anyone really know??
just wondering
Is the COC @ 83W 23N or there abouts??
I haven't been outside at all today since 8am. I would imagine the winds are picking up here in NW Tampa.
TWC says Hurricane Hunters found 60mph winds at 500 feet so we have letter B already.
NRL always confirms with the NHC.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 4:04 PM EDT on June 01, 2007.
Posted By: stormchasher at 4:01 PM EDT on June 01, 2007.

hurricane23 at 3:58 PM EDT on June 01, 2007.
Posted By: weatherboykris at 3:56 PM EDT on June 01, 2007. (hide)
We have "NONAME" on NRL,it's a TD.

Negative Barry at 5pm already confirmed .



Would it be right at 5pm??

I expect the advisory to be coming in between 4:45 to 5pm.



Thanks Adrian!!!!!
4 panel Zoom in WV. DRy air..Link
Anyone planning to watch the weather channel special on a hurricane hitting downtown Miami? I think it airs on Sunday at 8:00pm or 9:00pm?
Posted By: StormJunkie at 8:06 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

Drak, the GFDL takes it a little more northerly as of the 12z run.

yea but three other models have it around Tampa so i am gonna with that. Thanks for posting that link. That makes my forecast a little more definitive. Everyone In Florida should get decent rain from this. But if you notice than heavy line of thunderstorms on the East side of the system you can see that that line extend some hundred miles long. thats why i thing central and south Florida will get the biggest impact as far as rain goes.
536. HCW
60mph winds reported 500 ft up with recon

This thing is starting to get its act together

Sat image

Link
Anyone planning to watch the weather channel special on a hurricane hitting downtown Miami? I think it airs on Sunday at 8:00pm or 9:00pm?

I do, it airs this Sunday at 9pm EDT.
538. FLBoy
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 45 Knots (51.75 MPH)

As far as any shear arguments.....this system is moving along with the shear so there is little effect. That's one big reason why they flew today.
Drak, I believe the COC will go N of Tampa, but that does mean it may be a rough ride for Tampa.
540. IKE
Posted By: StormJunkie at 3:06 PM CDT on June 01, 2007.

Drak, the GFDL takes it a little more northerly as of the 12z run.


You're right..takes it in west of Jacksonville.
i plan to watch it
no speculation involved..... we have connections to connections! LOL
"i am so confused is it or is it not
does anyone really know??
just wondering"

no one really knows. everyone is just speculating. only "official" word is from the Navy who calls it No Name.
Owell we have TD 02-L, Quick start, slow finish to these types of seasons.
welcome Bary and the much needed rain
the GFDL is not the only model. Three other models have it around the Tampa Bay Area...
Here in Jax, it's been cloudy all day, but there has been no rain.
Someone stated that most of the moister from...it...would be south of the center. I don't see that. It looks to me as if most of the rain is North and East of the center. Could someone explain please?
Rain is cold here in Bradenton FL. Air temp is only 66F! COLD CORE!
One could call it Grandma Moses or Godzilla..but heres the best news for those who need it..Link
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 4:11 PM EDT on June 01, 2007. (hide)
Anyone planning to watch the weather channel special on a hurricane hitting downtown Miami? I think it airs on Sunday at 8:00pm or 9:00pm?

I do, it airs this Sunday at 9pm EDT.

No doupt i have it marked on my fridge ...
552. FLBoy
I would find it unusual based on Recon that the NHC would not name.....especially given the close proximity to populated areas like Florida.
Wonder where the watches and warnings will be at 5:00pm? I am sure all points south will be under some type of watch....wonder how far north? tampa? tallahassee? memphis?
Flboy, I am not sure the system can move a long with 40kt shear? That thing would be gone in a few hours even if it was moving 30. The shear appears to still be there and that is what is keeping the system from intensifying too much.
Fine Drak, since you know already, we defer!
556. RL3AO
What are the odds we get a "Breaking News" bar out of Barry on CNN, FNC or MSNBC at 5ET?
IF IT GETS A NAME.......

the watch will be from apalachicola to just south of Tampa.... with a warming in the middle.
OMG!...its a TS!..BARRY! 6
I found something that may intrest some people! This is the 48 hour total precipitation forcast from the 20 km WRF.



This potental Barry looks like it will help fight the major drought in the state. To convert the millimeter measurements to inches, use this page.
I've got a funny feeling it is Subtropical cause STS's can handle that kind of shear way better than Tropical Storms...i might be wrong.
If it becomes Barry, and heads towards Tampa. I live in miami and will my weather be horrible again tommorw since most of the moisture is to the south and east of the system?
563. FLBoy
Hard to say how high the shear really is. I'm thinking it is aiding in ventilating the darn thing more than hindering it at this point StormJunkie.
First off, the COC is not even north of the Keys yet. Its still level with them.

Second, if it does make landfall near Tampa, then that puts southern/central florida in for it. All the convection is located on the east southern side. If it made landfall in south Florida, then a lot of the heavy rain would miss the peninsula.

jb, this is not what was expected...So what was said does not really matter as much now. The whole E side of this system should have a good bit of moisture.
566. IKE
Posted By: Joshfsu123 at 3:15 PM CDT on June 01, 2007.

IF IT GETS A NAME.......

the watch will be from apalachicola to just south of Tampa.... with a warming in the middle.


You're probably about right.
still, todays progress of 92L was short of amazing! Wouldn't have believed it, if I hadn't seen it with my own 2 eyes!
Everyone I am at JACKSONville international airport in Florida. It is overcast and looks like it is about to rain. I am taking off at 5 for California.
Here what i think. Hurricane23 can you comment please..
Berry
Man this storm rather ragged to be calling it a TS. Marlinsfan regardless of how much it forms, Miami is going to get ALOT of rain!
I'd say the odds are high RL3. The media will be all over it like stink on @#$%
573. RL3AO
I give Barry two advisories before it becomes a remnant low or extratropical.
574. PBG00
You are da man GS
Posted By: Canesfan68 at 8:16 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

First off, the COC is not even north of the Keys yet. Its still level with them.

Second, if it does make landfall near Tampa, then that puts southern/central florida in for it. All the convection is located on the east southern side. If it made landfall in south Florida, then a lot of the heavy rain would miss the peninsula.


yes thats correct! finally someone sees it.
What are the odds we get a "Breaking News" bar out of Barry on CNN, FNC or MSNBC at 5ET?


I'd say the odds are damn good.
lol GS.....I give props to all who did not give up on this. I sure did. I am thankful for rain.
Most likely it will make for a breezy/wet day for South Florida. As for Central Florida, expect some wind and much needed rain.
Well, time for some beer and chicken wings..... BBL!
This is now 95-100 percent confirmed Barry at 5pm.
You are in a room full of adolesent young males with a untameable urge to be FIRST ME TO.. ME ME.. I SAID IT FIRST .... COME SEE MY WEBSITE... who are all aspiring to become the next Joe Bastardi super weatherman...

You'll get used to it ;)


thanks Gulf
i read all the entries i only comment once in a while been using this site since last year it gets very interesting
Hurricane Alley has it named Barry.

NHC has not released yet.
Sorry if my picture is a little blury... the top box says winds topping out at 60 mph (with higher guest)and 1-2 inches. the lower box says 1-3 inches with isolated 4 in.
I just hope that most of the rain tracks right over lake Okechobee!!!
Joe Bastardi isn't really that muscular is he? I think he beats me dangit, but I'm still in highschool I'll take him when I hit my 20's LOL!
so what are everyone's thoughts on the left over of Barbara once she crosses forming in the atlantic?
Interesting windnumbers but no banding on long range radar out of key west
welcome barry. recon found 40mph at the surface with 1007mb. the nhc will upgrade disturbance to tropical storm barry at 5 0'clock today
591. IKE
Here's the readings from a buoy about 60-80 miles NORTH of the COC of Barry.....

"Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 9.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.8 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 146 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.80 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 73.8 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 78.8 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.6 F"..........

Pressure has dropped .04 in the last hour.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 8:20 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

This is now 95-100 percent confirmed Barry at 5pm.

ok i just. Lets see how my forecast compares to the NHC. A system coming out the Carribean usually has its heaviest convection to the south of the COC. Notice, though, that heavy convection is forming over the northern COC.
Marlins....South Florida will have wind and rain tomorrow no matter where this storm goes...we are on the east side. It will be a day full of your typical south florida summer thunderstorms.
My bad...

Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).


Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones.

The most common type is an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

A second type of subtropical cyclone is a mesoscale low originating in or near a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, with radius of maximum sustained winds generally less than 30 miles. The entire circulation may initially have a diameter of less than 100 miles. These generally short-lived systems may be either cold core or warm core.



From NHC

595. RL3AO
I am still a little stunned this thing developed.
Another point to take in consideration is that this system is very poorly defined. I bet the 50-60mph winds are only a very small pocket that the recon passed by. Its obviously not a widespread area with those winds.
Posted By: stoormfury at 8:22 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

welcome barry. recon found 40mph at the surface with 1007mb. the nhc will upgrade disturbance to tropical storm barry at 5 0'clock today

i think you mean winds at 60mph with a surface pressure at 1000mb.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
401 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

.SYNOPSIS...ALL EYES ARE ARE THE TROPICAL LOW SPINNING OVER THE SERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION PER
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. JUST NOTED THE FIRST LIGHTNING STRIKES.
OH OH! STAY TUNED. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE ERN BIG BEND AND
ARE DRIFTING SLOWLY WWD. A LARGE SHIELD OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION
IS MAKING SLOW BU STEADY PROGRESS UP THE FL PENINSULA WELL N OF THE
LOW AND HAS NOW REACHED THE BAY AREA.
599. IKE
Posted By: RL3AO at 3:24 PM CDT on June 01, 2007.

I am still a little stunned this thing developed.


A high built over it and kicked the shear out of the way.
Why?..Its June.And the Models like the GFS have been sniffing this out for 2 weeks.No surprise here at all.None.Nada .Zippo.LOL
Crisis, I too have been wondering what might happen to Barbara when it gets into the Atlantic.
602. IKE
And they've upped the chances of rain out of the Tallahassee office...need to be upped even more...
Posted By: RL3AO at 8:24 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

I am still a little stunned this thing developed

i am as well 3 hours ago i gave this a 10% chance of development. I left and came back to what is now TS Berry.
604. IKE
Posted By: Patrap at 3:25 PM CDT on June 01, 2007.

Why?..Its June.And the Models like the GFS have been sniffing this out for 2 weeks.No surprise here at all.None.Nada .Zippo.LOL


Agree.
depending on position and shear might be a possibility there don't you think jamesgalloway?
Posted By: RL3AO at 3:24 PM CDT on June 01, 2007.

I am still a little stunned this thing developed.

A high built over it and kicked the shear out of the way.


Doesnt that mean its fairly strong??
607. RL3AO
This thing is not 60mph sustained. Maybe 45...maybe.
Tropical Weather Statements
412
URNT12 KNHC 011912
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/18:58:40Z
B. 23 deg 55 min N
085 deg 45 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 45 kt
E. 222 deg 011 nm
F. 329 deg 052 kt
G. 221 deg 011 nm
H. EXTRAP 1000 mb
I. 22 C/ 305 m
J. 24 C/ 305 m
K. / C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF307 01BBA INVEST OB 11
MAX FL WIND 52 KT SW QUAD 18:55:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
Vis...Link
if does get the name barry at 5pm wait till the sungoes down tonight you will see it really peak thats what happen last night whos going to be on night patrol . it will show it potetional after midnight
On another note models right now need to be taken with caution due to movement.Iam also seeing it drifting to the east.
612. IKE
It's stronger then what I thought it would get. I thought...like Dr. Masters..they would cancel the recon.
Crisis, I think so. The western Carrib and GOM are the warmest waters in June.
A lot of people downcasted this from the beginning. Personally, I believed the whole time it would become Barry. I asked Barometer Bob last night, and he said it was even highly out of the woods to be a depression and a definite no on tropical storm. Kinda sad when a kid can predict weather better than an actual meteorologist.
It will be Tropical Storm Barry, WPBF News just interviewed NHC.
so WPB, another wet day like this tommorow?
cmc has been on this as tropical for near a week. Lastnight I stated I wouldn't be suprised to see a TD or even TS from this. No shock here.
Personally, I think the only thing that will be left of Barbara once it gets into the Atlantic basin will be a moisture plume. This is just an ametuer's opinion, though.
I will be on night patrol! At 3 AM EST I will be on...I won't be in California until midnight pacific time.
I dont know about you guys but..

I am definitely seeing an eastward motion right now from the loop.
They say it will weaken though.
Dito skyepony
Tropical Storm 02L

sss
Ok wait let me rephrase that.

DUE EAST motion.
I have a question...what makes the convection POP at night? I know this happens regularly with storms like this, but I don't know why...


thx in advance.
Dang power flickered 2nd time today.
Depends on where Barbara crosses ...
If she "crosses" the mountains of the Yucatan she may not even make it across.
If she crosses the skinny part of Mexico (Isthmus of Tehuantepec) she'll be a tropical low in the Western Gulf of Mexico and ...
ok boarding! ttyl when I stop in Atlanta.
Is it moving East or was that a wobble?
guess it will just be wait and see JamesGalloway
T #s for tropical storm 02L.

Link
wobbling.... the trend motion is still NNE
Does anyone else see this DUE east motion?

The last frame shows it shoot EAST.
gotta love Florida Power....lol
I have a question...what makes the convection POP at night? I know this happens regularly with storms like this, but I don't know why...


thx in advance.


I think its because it goes cooler outside and theres no sun so the cloud tops cool which allows strengthening.
May be just a wobble, or it may be the new trend. We will have to see.
Nice convection on northern edge of COC -- looks like its trying to close up as well --
642. IKE
It doesn't look like it's weakening to me ...my visible loop just updated. A big blowup of thunderstorms almost over the COC..which continues to move almost due north.
NRL HAS BARRY!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks 1900, that reminded me to check the MIMIC, but it is still collecting data...
lol... And it was moving West a couple hours ago.
OK this is not funny, sitting here reading this and up pops a horrendous wind/rain storm right N of Biloxi, big big camper but it's shaking.

Is what I see on the Mobile Radar the NW edge of this whole low, not necessarily Barry. It's just peaking into radar viewLink
Ima thinking the way those clouds are moving of to the NE is were barry will follow.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 012035
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
500 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007

...TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON
BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 320
MILES...520 KM...SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 235 MILES...
375 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
BARRY REACHES THE COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF BARRY MAKES LANDFALL.

BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...24.2 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT32 KNHC 012035
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
500 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007

...TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON
BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 320
MILES...520 KM...SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 235 MILES...
375 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
BARRY REACHES THE COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF BARRY MAKES LANDFALL.

BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...24.2 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
yea i see that it moved directly east ...its probably a wobble tho ... theres a torndao warning for the middle Keys!!!
653. PBG00
Gulf..you shouldn't scoff in the presence of greatness...lol
In other news check out this monster in Cottle County Texas

http://tinyurl.com/2lx7fl

Storm J2

Update - 4:55
OMG - this is scary, I looked at this cell and told myself wouldn't be surprised if this spawned a tornado cause it had all the signs.. Well it did
ITS IS BERRY YOU CAN STOP SAYING IT NOW LOL. Lets try i keep some dignity,and focus on where this system will go and the impacts that it will have.
Tornado Warning Middle Keys:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
432 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MIDDLE KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 431 PM EDT...RADAR DETECTED A WATERSPOUT 8 MILES SOUTH OF LONG
KEY...OR ABOUT 18 MILES EAST OF MARATHON...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR LONG KEY BY 450 PM EDT...

WATERSPOUTS THAT MOVE ONSHORE ARE DANGEROUS AND CAN BE DEADLY. IF
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...SEE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.
just in tornado warnig for the middle keys and now officail ts barry
So now the only question is STS or TS. I think it has to be a TS. Warm core closed circulation...Could be wrong though.

Well I guess that is settled...

Convection continues to try and fire around the center..
000
WTNT32 KNHC 012035
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
500 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007

...TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON
BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 320
MILES...520 KM...SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 235 MILES...
375 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
BARRY REACHES THE COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF BARRY MAKES LANDFALL.

BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...24.2 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
The condensing of water vapor releases heat. During the night, the cloudtops radiate tons of heat into space. There is a greater temperature contrast between the cloud base and the cloud top, so the warm air can rise faster.
there has been a waterspoutwas spotted and is headed towards the middle keys
BARRYS ON THE WUNDERGROUND TROPICAL SECTION!!!!!!!!!!
000
WTNT22 KNHC 012036
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
2100 UTC FRI JUN 01 2007

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON
BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 85.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 85.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 85.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 33.0N 81.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 35.0N 78.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 41.0N 70.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 85.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




666. PBG00
anyone else want to post that?
wind are 45 mph with ts barry is now born heading north .at 12 mph
Afternoon all! TWC said the hh's found 1000mb & flight level winds (500 ft) of 60kts. Said official word to be out at 5:00
Theres only ONE Barry Baby...7
BARRYS ON THE NHC SITE!!!!!!!
BARRYIES HERE!!!!!!!!!!

...Tropical Storm Barry forms in the Gulf of Mexico...

at 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC... a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued
for the West Coast of Florida from Bonita Beach northward to Keaton
Beach...and a tropical storm watch has been issued from north of
Keaton Beach to St. Marks. A Tropical Storm Warning means that
tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours and a tropical storm watch means that
tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 24.2 north...longitude 85.5 west or about 320
miles...520 km...southwest of Tampa Florida and about 235 miles...
375 km...west of Key West Florida.

Barry is moving toward the north near 12 mph...19 km/hr. A gradual
turn to the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is
expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated before
Barry reaches the coast.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km
mainly to the north and east of the center.

Minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance aircraft was
1000 mb...29.53 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of up to 3 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...are
possible in the warning area near and to the right of where the
center of Barry makes landfall.
Barry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6
inches over the Florida Keys and peninsula into southeastern
Georgia with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches.
Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...24.2 N...85.5 W. Movement
toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
You guys are too funny. This storm BARELY a TS. Supposed to move into more unfavrable enviroment also. Even if it does not it is still a TROPICAL STORM THATS ALL!!!!!
lmao pat...☺
TS BARRY IS HERE!!!!! HOLY CRAP!!!!

Tornado Warning in effect for the Keys until 5pm. Water spouts sighted.
That forecast path will bring a ton of wind and rain to Tallahassee! Yeah!
Just offically released!!!
Season off to a good start.
Link
I live in New Port Richey, (Tampa Area) Looks like its heading my way, LOL.
By the 2 AM Central and South Florida should feel the heavy rainimpacts of the system. Bring n the dramatics.
682. PBG00
Wow you guys are GREEN...I hate to see what ya'll do when a cat 3 is out there! GS you still out there?
To be honest, this storm a blessing really due to our dry conditions here!
Fsh, many and most said it would be nothing, that is part of what makes it so interesting, not to mention that being a tropical system should entail more rain with the system.

The system is trying to pull under the convection now...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON
BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
686. RL3AO
40 kts, 1000mb.
Chill out ya'll. Take it easy
Posted By: Joshfsu123 at 8:42 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

That forecast path will bring a ton of wind and rain to Tallahassee! Yeah!

Thats not how it works surely you will get rain. But if you notice that heavy mositure to the south of the system, that will be heading to Central and South Florida.
i agree with Fshhead we truly needed the rain
Josh- Wind for us too?!?! SWEET!
Looks like big bend area
692. IKE
Posted By: MandyFSU at 3:44 PM CDT on June 01, 2007.

Josh- Wind for us too?!?! SWEET!


So much for that 30% chance of rain in Tallahassee tomorrow!
This isn't right...



Of course unless Barry did a big trans-continental jump. How's that for center relocation? LOL
Junkie I am really hoping this thing tracks near the lake.
PBGOO, yea agreed I think this server will crash for sure if any major storm tracks near the U.S. lol
How much you wanna bet the drought will turn into a deluge of rain and in two months everyone will be wishing for the faucet to be turned off? That's Florida weather for ya.
Not much wind but it will definitely bring us a good amount of rain.

The north and east part of the circulation is the strongest. Rain is already just off the coast and will likely start tonight in Tallahassee.
This storms name will be called: BARRY OUT OF THE BLUE!!!! ok?
They got Barry's symbol over India on the Tropical Main Page..quite funny.
For those going back & forth about it being tropical or non-tropical in nature, Bill Proenza was on local news here (WPB) saying it was a tough call because it is both. He said it had just enough tropical charecteristics to make it tropical.
Ike- I'm almost in tears (not really)

RAIN! HERE! I can't believe it!!!
LMAO!!!! BlueHaze that is SO TRUE!!!!!! Soon everyone will want it to STOP rainin'
Exposed CoC...SW Shear..still
that turn to the ne can happen way before it reaches tampa what you guys thinks
Thats 2 tropical storms by june1 very impressive.
Posted By: Joshfsu123 at 8:46 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

Not much wind but it will definitely bring us a good amount of rain.

The north and east part of the circulation is the strongest. Rain is already just off the coast and will likely start tonight in Tallahassee.

lol i think you need to look at the IR loop again. and notice all of the moisture to the Southeast of the system. Yes there is heavy rain around the north but its not as widespread as the one to the South.
CH 6 is saying Subtropical storm Barry....
Posted By: kylejourdan2006 at 8:45 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.
This isn't right...
Of course unless Barry did a big trans-continental jump.(picture of Barry on other side of the world)
How's that for center relocation? LOL


But did it retain it's COC and is it still Barry?? LOL LOL LOL

Skye no thats wrong this thing is definently tropical
I'll eat crow. I said it wouldn't be much, but most of you didn't see it because I posted it a 4 am a couple of days ago. By the way, Hi all.
000
WTNT22 KNHC 012036
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
2100 UTC FRI JUN 01 2007

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON
BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

Link
At this rate, we could have a lot of storms this season. Prayers for all ... an interesting start to the season.
That track takes it RIGHT across my parents. They need the rain bad!
Posted By: Skyepony at 8:49 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

CH 6 is saying Subtropical storm Barry....

lol that channel need go the the NHC website
Drak, They have gone with the GFDL/CMC solution. That path will also take it over some cooler water as it approaches the coast.

Convection continues to grow near the center and the center appears to be pulling directly under the deepest new convection.

The GHCC offers some great imagery. It is the first link under imagery here. It stinks we will loose visible sat soon.
Mandy, i think there gonna get some gooooooooood rain and i think the drought will lessen or even end over florida, we still have to watch shear and the possiblity of a stronger storm?
721. 0741
their dry air to south it affecting keys a bit
Station 42003 - E GULF 262 nm South of Panama City, FL

Conditions at 42003 as of
(2:49 pm CDT)
1949 GMT on 06/01/2007

- Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
- Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
- Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
- Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 9.2 ft
- Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
- Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.8 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 146 deg true )
- Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.80 in
- Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
- Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 73.8 F
- Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 78.8 F
- Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP):
Yeah, I look at the radar and not IR.... clouds tell me nothing. Radars do.

The Tallahassee radar has a good amount of rain approaching from our south. As the system moves north, so will the rain shield, thus, if it makes landfall 30/50 miles to our SE as is forecasted as of this moment, lots of rain will be in our area.

Sure, central Florida will probably receive more rain and good for them. We are likely going to receive 1 to 2 inches of rain.
I think the guy at CH 6 just got in trouble..lol NHC has TS all over this..

These are the "good" tropical systems. Ones that benefit the U.S. It seems like that's how it always starts though - small storms that are beneficial, but then stronger, larger storms start hitting and people say, "Okay, that's good. We don't need anymore." And they have every right to say that! When we lived in Florida, I hated having to prepare for storms coming through!
TS BARRY........." GIVE US RAIN PLEASE" MORE RAIN PLEASE
Wow pat, those winds have really picked up and the pressure is dropping pretty fast. I glanced at that buoy earlier this morning.
can you believe how far north they say the center is all that mess it way to the south thats just wrong
Would have not of called it but I stand corrected, guess this seasons holds much to learn. Figured the shear would have kept development from getting to this point.
731. HCW
Hurrevac takes it to 50mph at landfall

Link
Posted By: apocalyps2 at 8:39 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

TOMORROW NW


apocalypse, stop trolling. there is no scientfic evidence to support your "theory", which is nothing more than wishcasting. im putting you on ignore.

as for barry, i dont think it will strengthen too much (except for maybe a few mph higher). the real result of barry will be some VERY benefitial rain for drought stricken florida.

once again, stop trolling apocalypse. noone takes you seriously when you wishcast. provide some actual data to support your theory and maybe my view of you will change.
Hate to interupt, but there is a really bad hook echo in north Texas now.

Link
4-panel Water Vapor Loop Link
sb the center is right where they say it is. Look at some to the visible imagery loops and speed them up a little. There is really no way you can miss where the center is. Now if the convection continues to grow over it it will become harder to find.
wow looks like it is getting stronger! look at the blow up of convection around the center!!!!!!!!!!!
Hey Nash, you see Jim Cantore yet? lol!
It's light rain here at the North end of Lake "O". Bring the rain!!! We're waiting.
Pressure 1012 at my house and dropping, winds are around 15 MPH and I have received a half of an inch of rain.
Snow shield from future remnant low tropical blizzard Barry.
radar

Looks like landfall north of Tampa.
The Best analogy for shear ,is that its a lot like gas.It comes and goes.But the coc is still exposed on this one.It still has some room to work. But that window will be closing fast enough....next 30 hours
That dude just ate his words, said he thought that's what he thought they'd name it.

great call dr. masters, only a 20% chance of a named storm in all of june, and 5 minutes later we have Barry.
Wow! I was right, Barry in June. I expect to see Chantal this month also.
WPB-- You guys on the coast, get ALL the rain, LOL
REal Live turkey shoot eh Skyepony?..LOL
lmao 23, I guess even the Doc looses sometimes also. I think this is exactly why we are all here, no matter what happens it can often be unexpected.
He regressed a lil Skye..
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER...SUPPORTING A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.
BARRY COULD RETAIN SOME NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE CYCLONE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND IS HEADING
TOWARD COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. BARRY SHOULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS.

...BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 010 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AND
BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
AVILA
000
WTNT42 KNHC 012052
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
500 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKED THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND FOUND THAT THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 1000 MB WITH
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KNOTS. INITIALLY...THE SYSTEM APPEARED TO
BE A SUBTROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER...SUPPORTING A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.
BARRY COULD RETAIN SOME NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE CYCLONE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND IS HEADING
TOWARD COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS
INDICATED BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. BARRY SHOULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS.

BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 010 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AND
BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTION OF
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND PANHANDLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 24.2N 85.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 26.5N 84.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 33.0N 81.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 03/1800Z 35.0N 78.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/1800Z 41.0N 70.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$

FORECASTER AVILA
Another one defies the odds. Maybe this could be the season of storms that wont R.I.P.; were 2/2 already.

TROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022007
500 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007

...TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES...520 KM...SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 235 MILES... 375 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE BARRY REACHES THE COAST.(Been wrong before though)

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER OF BARRY MAKES LANDFALL.

BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...24.2 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

What if this is another 2005!!!
I'm a little surprised Masters didn't put some caveat into his forecast of only 20% chance of named storm in the 1st half of june...considering there was this possible Barry around...
Apparently, just an hour ago, NHC director Bill Proenza didn't think it was Barry either according to channel 7 news in Miami
Floater 2 and Barry..Link
is bryan norcross still working at cbs in miami? or did he go up to NY? They just interviewed him from NY...
Posted By: COHurricanes2007 at 9:04 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

What if this is another 2005!!!


You will have to change your name.
;-)
Put you on ignore to.
There is no evidence this thing should go NE.
If it reaches 60 mph it could go NW.
The pressure is not strong enough to push it EAST.

no evidence? really? all models are forcasting a cental florida landfall, not to mention the bermuda high will cause it to swing in a NE direction.

im reporting you to administrators apoc. there is no need for trolls on this forum. we are here to spread actual information, not lies, misinformation and wishcasting.
no southbeachdude he's still with cbs 4 in Miami
Dr. Masters spoke in detail in his interview live last night and of course he mentioned either way a weak Sub-tropical or tropical storm OR depression would cross Fla as predicted. A blind mouse in Ankara could have seen this one...LOL
23 thats funny and i believe that is one of the reasons everyone watches them. if a system wants to develop it will even with a hostile environment. this system has been persistant waiting for the opportunity
man the new track isn't nothing like earlier models taking it thru central Fla. Glad it is taking the more northly track. Will be able to help out those areas in greater need.
Whats up guys. Back for another 6 months of pleasure. I see we start off the first day with a new TS. Barry McKockner as I have deemed him. Pretty pathetic looking storm. Oh well need the rain. Apocalyps2 go back to your video games. Some of us have been around here long enough to see you kind come and go.
I did a full update on Barry, track forecast, intensity forecast, impacts, etc.

Hurricane Warning

This will be a rain maker more than anything, fun to be on the B storm already though.
Bryan Norcross only makes an occassional appearance, mostly when South Florida is being threatened. He's got it easy and is coasting on his 15 year laurels.
A blind mouse in Ankara could have seen this one...LOL

Not a well defined tropical storm pat...
i dont get u guys, no one was expecting just watching this!!!
You have a 20% chance of rain or a storm or whatever ... and it will come up 20% of the time. It actually does not mean you're wrong when the 20% occurs. A good 20% happens 20% of the time. Kinda makes you wonder about our predictive skills as humans but this is how we get better ...
Ok I'm now in learning mode, I see decent sst in it's path, but shear is still there. How much strengthening can we see....I must admit this one has caught me by surprise...any input would be appreciated
I thought we would see Barry middle June, I guess I have to change my forecast to Chantal in middle June. This looks to be a very active hurricane season.
I wouldn't give it 1% apoc. No models suggest it, no official forecast suggest it. There were lots of hints that this could happen although it was not the mainstream thought. Both sides were also supported by various forms of data. You side does not have any data.
what are the odds of a cat 5 hitting new orleans out of barry?
Posted By: floridafisherman at 9:06 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

Put you on ignore to.
There is no evidence this thing should go NE.
If it reaches 60 mph it could go NW.
The pressure is not strong enough to push it EAST.

no evidence? really? all models are forcasting a cental florida landfall, not to mention the bermuda high will cause it to swing in a NE direction.

im reporting you to administrators apoc. there is no need for trolls on this forum. we are here to spread actual information, not lies, misinformation and wishcasting.



Thats a really dumb reason to report somone. Quit being childish about it. You need to get over the fact that other people have different Ideas from you. He's not a troll, he just has an unlikely idea and hes defending it to the best of his abilities, however limited they may seem.
apocalyps2 i see ur point.. its jsut ur so persistent and u keep saying NW this NW that ...but i understand u .... hmmmm to me it looks like it already started the NNE movement ..what do u guys thinK?
"Ofcourse there is a 99% chance that it goes NE But i go for the 1% NW."

which is the same thing as wishcasting apoc. and you seem to forget that computer models are BASED ON INFORMATION. your 1% is based on?

of course nothing is set in stone, but you have no desire to forcast this storm accurately.
Conditions at 42003 as of
(2:49 pm CDT)
1949 GMT on 06/01/2007:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 9.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.8 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 146 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.80 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 73.8 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 78.8 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.6 F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Afternoon Bama, good to see you, sarcasm and all ☺

But to answer your question, they are excellent over the next 100 years or so.
789. FLBoy
I am personally thankful the Recon flight went out today. Very impressive data.....not really surprising given the changes today but very impressive.
Now suck up some more moisture Barry!
I do prefer the term foregeussing apoc...lol
It is a troll. Posting "it's gonna go NW" again and again over the course of 2 days (it was doing that yesterday too), without ever explaining why it thinks that...that's being a troll.

So ignore the troll and it will get bored and go away.
afternoon SJ!!! i will admit that i am surprised that this formed. I didnt' think it would. Guess thats why i11m not a paid meteorologist huh?!! LOL
The GFSx was on this 13 days ago...I post it daily.LOL
this things just getting going, remember its had to undergo changes from a non tropical low to a full tropical cyclone which includes losing fronts, so overnight it should start getting a lot more convection going.
"Thats a really dumb reason to report somone. Quit being childish about it. You need to get over the fact that other people have different Ideas from you. He's not a troll, he just has an unlikely idea and hes defending it to the best of his abilities, however limited they may seem."

its not about having differnt ideas, hellsniper. its about having differnt ideas BASED ON DATA OR INFORMATION, which apocalyspe has neither. by siding with the troll, you only empower him to troll even more.

there is nothing wrong with different ideas, as long as they are based on reality or facts. there is nothing to support it claim of it moving NW. there is EVERY indictation to support it making landfall in cental florida.
SH- Better watch what I wish for this season.
Its just what Fla needs relief wise.A good soaker..
hmmm I live in sOuth florida but something is telling me it's going to hit closer toTampa .....
Actually Apocalyps2 wisdom is knowing how to spell knowing that your name should have and e in it and know should have a k in it.
A lot can happen with weak storms ... especially in terms of direction .. and predicting them is difficult. But past experience would seem to indicate that the water temps won't support a cat 5 at this time in the gulf. If it happens though we will search for an explanation.
Best its not Late Aug or Early Sept on this track..Charley showed us that.
Oh, look, Barry has been named! o.^

1000 mB storm steering currents are interesting!



Mabey apoc isn't smoking something funny.LOL
I think tomorrow the sun will rise in the west and set in the east. heck, it could happen. my idea is just as valid as anyone else's.
SH looks around sees no SH

No kidding Rays huh! This will be great for y'all though. Looks like it is even going to put a good dousing over all of the fire area ☺
wind shear is high over it...im not sure it will intensify much more. But the great thing is the rain for florida!
809. FLBoy
I think tomorrow the sun will rise in the west and set in the east. heck, it could happen. my idea is just as valid as anyone else's.

If that happens we'll all be East-casting!
Patrap are you in Biloxi?? Did I talk to you last year??
Only if it can develop a anticyclone BT. Wait and see I guess, but it can't get too strong. The SSTs should not support it.
what the dickens? I leave for a couple hours and magically theres TS, im dumbfounded
Small thunderstorm firing up in the center of the vortex now!
ive never seen a TS look like this
Can someone give a link of the model forcasts of Barry?
anvilhead,

why are you posting the same image over and ever again bud?
Sorry Guys... I'm really not trying to feed the beast.
what direction does it look Barry is follwing... i definitley think Barry will be on the extreme right side of the track ..putting it over tampa
Am I right the SE side of this storm should be the worst for landfall?
A large area of disturbed weather continues over the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure. There is no circulation evident on QuikSCAT, satellite loops, or the Tampa Bay radar. Wind shear is about 20-40 knots, which is unfavorable for tropical storm formation. The shear is expected to remain high over the storm for the next few days, and I don't expect it to develop into a tropical depression.

He needs to update that...
825. FLBoy
New Blog!!
Srry welshcayman, it updated in the tropical page but when i reposted it it didnt waqnt to have the new image, now it did
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 9:27 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

A large area of disturbed weather continues over the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure. There is no circulation evident on QuikSCAT, satellite loops, or the Tampa Bay radar. Wind shear is about 20-40 knots, which is unfavorable for tropical storm formation. The shear is expected to remain high over the storm for the next few days, and I don't expect it to develop into a tropical depression.

He needs to update that...

Michael, this one fooled so many, including myself !
Never thought I would see a TS going this far North. Even the pros thought weak system over central or S Fla as a rain maker.

If everyone that got this wrong went looking for crow that bird would be on the endangered list LOL
Adios for today ... have fun and be prepared.
Im new on here, can everyone see my typing?
Posted By: NorthxCakalaky at 9:32 PM GMT on June 01, 2007.

Im new on here, can everyone see my typing?


Yes we can. Interesting name
Hey does anyone Have the gfs,gfdl,cmc Models,please Post the model page link
anyway for bonita beach area landfall?
By this time tomorrow Barry will make landfall around Cedar Key, then eyes on Barbara I am guessing.
it just goes to show we really know nothing and if ur wondering she ll track along the back of fla across the delta on wards into ga end up at the eastern great lakes nice way to start the season and theres alot more to come stay tunedwe got 5 months till end of hurricane season
...
Hunters found 67kts inthe west quad!! I'm surprized to see Barry is still strengthening. I know everyone is saying this won't become a hurricane but, didn't they say it wouldn't become a TS??

NOT WISHCASTING, just wondering??

786
URNT12 KNHC 012116
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/21:00:20Z
B. 24 deg 13 min N
085 deg 30 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 50 kt
E. 290 deg 016 nm
F. 351 deg 067 kt
G. 256 deg 004 nm
H. EXTRAP 998 mb
I. 21 C/ 274 m
J. 22 C/ 466 m
K. / C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 01BBA INVEST OB 14
MAX FL WIND 67 KT W QUAD 20:58:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

I am new here, but what a start to the season
I would have never thought this system would have gotten it's act together to be a TD let alone a TS. It still doesn't look to me like there is enough evidence to support a TS. The wind shear is not favorable and the SST's are low. There doesn't seem to be the convection needed around the vortex.

It seems to me "they" are jumping the gun on this. I still believe it's just going to be a big rain maker, which is exactly what Florida/Georgia needs right now.

This is just my thoughts, please correct me where I'm wrong.
to all u newbies always expect the unexpected
dirual tonight in a T.S. is always a good bet of good bursts of convection with it in centre of T.S. makes even a better shot at being a brief look at whats yet to come all signs indicate a quick intensication is likely during dirual and if it could wrap maybe we just might have something but i figure only strong T.S. status possible
Galveston County Tx folks I have a question.

If the mandatory evac is given do we have to go? I am getting different results to this from you stay you pay a fine, to Texas is a stay if you want State. Which is it?
842. 0741
June 1, 2007 at 8:00PM/ET Hurricane Hollow's Eye On The Storm
Season Opening Broadcast
http://www.wrbn.net/
843. 0741
show going to start now Link
844. 0741
we have chatroom to talk about barry too Link