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Gulf of Mexico disturbance 96L poorly organized, but may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:27 PM GMT on June 22, 2012

An area of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms in the Southern Gulf of Mexico (designated 96L by NHC Thursday afternoon) is a threat to become a tropical depression this weekend, and all interests along the Gulf of Mexico coast should pay attention to the progress of this disturbance. The disturbance is bringing occasional heavy rains to Western Cuba, South Florida, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Top winds measured in the surrounding ocean areas this morning were 27 mph, gusting to 34 mph, at the Yucatan Basin buoy between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands. Our wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas show a ship that measured sustained winds of 30 mph near the western tip of Cuba this morning. Satellite-based surface wind measurements from the newly-available Oceansat-2 scatterometer, courtesy of India, show no signs of a surface circulation. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is less organized than it was Thursday evening, with only a little low-level spin apparent, and a modest area of disorganized thunderstorms. The decrease in organization is probably due to the moderate to high levels of wind shear of 15 - 25 knots over the region. Water vapor satellite loops show a modest region of dry air over the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is interfering with development. Ocean temperatures are 81 - 83°F in the Western Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, and warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L this afternoon, but this mission will probably be cancelled due to the disturbance's lack of organization.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of the tropical disturbance 96L in the Southern Gulf of Mexico.

Forecast for 96L
Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate range through Saturday night, which is likely low enough to allow 96L to develop into a tropical depression; NHC gave 96L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning, in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. By Sunday, wind shear is predicted to increase, limiting 96L's potential for intensification. Where the storm might go is anybody's guess. The GFS model has consistently been predicting that a trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast across Florida north of Tampa Bay on Sunday or Monday. However, an ensemble of forecasts from the model created by running the model with slight perturbations to the initial conditions shows a wide range of possible tracks, both to the east over Florida, and to the west towards Texas and Louisiana (Figure 2.) The latest ECMWF model run (00 UTC) predicts that the trough will not be strong enough to pull 96L northeastwards across Florida. The ECMWF predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in over the Southern U.S., forcing the disturbance westwards across the Gulf of Mexico and into South Texas by Thursday. The UKMET model also favors a track west towards Texas. The NOGAPS model takes 96L to the northwest into Louisiana/Texas by Monday.


Figure 2. Which way will 96L go? The GFS model, when run at low resolution with 20 slightly different perturbations to the initial conditions in order to generate an ensemble of different forecasts, shows two distinct possibilities: a sharp east turn to move over Florida, or a west or northwest motion towards Louisiana or Texas. The high-resolution official GFS forecast is shown in white.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

3001. LargoFl
3002. Grothar
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Only 1 TWO? What's the matter with you people?
Spoke to soon, now there's 2 :)
\

Remember the good old days when we would get 14 or 15?

Quoting pottery:

A NOAA buoy is producing the winds?????
Well, now we know what causes these things!



Time to get rid of those bouys!!!
Remember folks; assuming Debbie arrives by tonight or tomorrow morning, we are witnessing a small time-window of tropical history....... 4 named storms before the end of June........
Quoting pottery:

A NOAA buoy is producing the winds?????
Well, now we know what causes these things!
..lol..good catch...
Quoting Grothar:
\

Remember the good old days when we would get 14 or 15?


You mean last night?
wow up to 30!!
Quoting Grothar:
\

Remember the good old days when we would get 14 or 15?


Gro it's 7 am
3009. pottery
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Time to get rid of those bouys!!!


:):))
Looks like 96L will go straight to Debby if declared today.
3012. pottery
Quoting Grothar:
\

Remember the good old days when we would get 14 or 15?


Wow.
Even in my 'best' old days I never got that much.
I propose we re-classify 96-L to 96-UD*




* Ugly Duckling
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Another Poll.


How many new TROLL ID's will be created today?

A: 1
B: 2
C: 3
D: Only God knows.



I'll take...D!
I believe we have at least a Tropical Depression in the GOM, but the NHC will wisely wait till recon investigates later today.
I could potentially get the system up here in the Florida Big bend so I may have to leave in a bit to get some batteries and canned goods just in case.........We don't get hurricanes/home damage in Tallahassee but in my neighborhood (with all the trees), a wind gust of 40 mph knocks out the power for 2 days.....Lol.
If that high builds over this storm it's going to be and interesting day. Please hang around shear for another 48 hrs. I'm thinking good thing there are a lot of Panhandle/New Orleans bloggers on line.
3018. LargoFl
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Remember folks; assuming Debbie arrives by tonight or tomorrow morning, we are witnessing a small time-window of tropical history....... 4 named storms before the end of June........
...thats right..history in the making alright
3019. Cat5hit
Quoting pottery:

Wow.
Even in my 'best' old days I never got that much.


ROFLMAO...

---

So no watches or warnings for Texas? I thought that the Western GOM was the only place that this system could go?

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND..
GFDL from last night



It's weaker on the newer run.
3022. Grothar
Quoting gordydunnot:
ITCZ has seemed out of whack to me also, way to south, but I didn't say anything because the Doc or one of the more knowledgeable bloggers hadn't mentioned it.


It has been mentioned a couple of times. That Bermuda high is really way far South and has been staying like that for a long time. I don't ever remember it staying that far South for so long. It would keep any system moving across pretty far south.

3023. shawn26
Can this storm still be picked up by the jet stream and hit the west coast of Florida?
Just drying out from the 27 inches of precip two weeks ago...looks like we're gonna get wet again. Anybody got a snorkel i can borrow?
3025. LargoFl
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I could potentially get the system up here in the Florida Big bend so I may have to leave in a bit to get some batteries and canned goods just in case.........We don't get hurricanes/home damage in Tallahassee but in my neighborhood (with all the trees), a wind gust of 40 mph knocks out the power for 2 days.....Lol.
...good idea,a lady asked me about evacuations here for the mobile homes etc,i dont have any idea BUT..its a good thing to be prepared just in case in all areas around the gulf should this become a strong storm, as they still dont know Where this is going.
i see red now in the gom!
Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived Outlooks



GIS data: .shp

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS PRODUCED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR MORE LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM...COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF THE DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE... 90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN



3028. icmoore
Quoting pottery:

Wow.
Even in my 'best' old days I never got that much.


Good morning, Pottery! You're on a roll this morning you've had me laughing twice already and I'm not even a morning person :))
3029. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

Wow.
Even in my 'best' old days I never got that much.


Well some of us were luckier than others. :) How doing my man pott?
3030. LargoFl
Quoting shawn26:
Can this storm still be picked up by the jet stream and hit the west coast of Florida?
GFS model still says yes but who knows, anything is possible in the next few days
Latest HWRF

Morning All.

Miami to Brownsville and EVERYTHING in-between gets a look this morning, lol.

Quoting shawn26:
Can this storm still be picked up by the jet stream and hit the west coast of Florida?


The jet stream is not a factor (too high up) but you should monitor your local news and National Hurricane Center for potential track and prepare accordingly if advised to by your local emergency authorities.........
3034. Grothar
Quoting weatherh98:

Gro it's 7 am


Yeah, but what day?
3035. GPTGUY
Quoting jrweatherman:
So no watches or warnings for Texas? I thought that the Western GOM was the only place that this system could go?

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND..



The Northern Gulf Coast is closer and would be affected first with squalls..as the storm moves west considering that's the path it takes, then watches and warnings would be issued westward.
3036. guygee
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Time to get rid of those bouys!!!
They've been working on that for years now, slowly so no angry protest marches would break out in the big cities.
3037. pcola57
Quoting EcoLogic:
Just drying out from the 27 inches of precip two weeks ago...looks like we're gonna get wet again. Anybody got a snorkel i can borrow?


Where are you located?
Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, but what day?


Saturday?!
3039. yqt1001
The recon mission for yesterday was canceled around now. It should be a go if it's not canceled within the hour.
The western track is still not a given, models are everywhere! Just a complete mess.. Still a 50/50 shot on the storm moving to either Florida or Texas.
3041. Grothar
Quoting icmoore:


Good morning, Pottery! You're on a roll this morning you've had me laughing twice already and I'm not even a morning person :))


He can do that.
3042. Cat5hit
The models have that squished spider look to them... Not good, I like to see consensus...
Thanks for the answer Grothar as for the frequency thing I thought 3 HR's was good . Grothar I am not worthy.
When does it "look" like this storm will make a definitive mood and we will finally know where it is going? certainly by monday morning we'll know right? this thing is taking its sweet time
3045. LargoFl
If we get Debby today, it would be the first time in history that 4 named storms formed in the Atlantic before July and the first time since 2005 that two named storms formed in June.
Another good rule of thumb (and certainly for Gulf storms); if the landfall forecast is for Tropical Storm; prepare for a Cat 1. If this thing does meander a bit in the Gulf, then more time to intensify further.
NOGAPS...

3049. Cat5hit
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If we get Debby today, it would be the first time in history that 4 named storms formed in the Atlantic before July and the first time since 2005 that two named storms formed in June.


Oh goodie... another 2005 storm season of activity...

._.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If we get Debby today, it would be the first time in history that 4 named storms formed in the Atlantic before July and the first time since 2005 that two named storms formed in June.

2005 didn't get it's D storm until July 5... That was a pretty memorable storm if I recall correctly.
i am prepare for a Cat 2 hurricane with winds up to 100 mph!!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If we get Debby today, it would be the first time in history that 4 named storms formed in the Atlantic before July and the first time since 2005 that two named storms formed in June.
does.it.matter?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Time to get rid of those bouys!!!


Well, bouys will be bouys...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If we get Debby today, it would be the first time in history that 4 named storms formed in the Atlantic before July and the first time since 2005 that two named storms formed in June.


That's quite remarkable. After 2005, I didn't think we would be breaking any records pertaining to the numbers for a long time.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Morning All.

Miami to Brownsville and EVERYTHING in-between gets a look this morning, lol.



It unlikely this system moves west regardless of the models. A more Eastern gulf storm than anything else. The High wont be that strong or east to pick this up it a better chance it will just feel the trough and escape east before the High has a chance to grab it.
Link

Visible Sat. GOM
Good way to see COC....Check the "fronts" box

and click "zoom" then click on the L in the sattelite

presentation until it zooms in tight....
Quoting pcola57:


Where are you located?


Gulf breeze proper

Was in Negril on Sunday and experienced the beginnings of this system...its following me.
Quoting yqt1001:
The recon mission for yesterday was canceled around now. It should be a go if it's not canceled within the hour.
It'll go today.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

2005 didn't get it's D storm until July 5... That was a pretty memorable storm if I recall correctly.
Yes it was
Another Florida vs. Texas blog today?

I dropped by for a visit yesterday afternoon and it was like a Preschool playground.
i am prepare for a Cat 2 hurricane with winds up to 100 mph!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hostile winds are relaxing--I give Debby a 100% to get it going on, then she will get a haircut in 72 hours.
3063. LargoFl
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

FLC086-231345-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0039.120623T1144Z-120623T1345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
744 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 945 AM EDT

* AT 740 AM EDT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. THE
MEDIA REPORTED MINOR FLOODING ACROSS WESTERN KENDALL EARLIER THIS
MORNING. DUE TO SATURATED GROUNDS ACROSS THE AREA...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING OF STREET AND FLOOD PRONE
AREAS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS, HIGHWAYS,
STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW
LYING SPOTS. RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS IN CANALS
AND DITCHES.

LAT...LON 2591 8044 2591 8035 2572 8036 2571 8046
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Another Florida vs. Texas blog today?

I dropped by for a visit yesterday afternoon and it was like a Preschool playground.


Lol
how far north could this move before the east or west turn....
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Another Florida vs. Texas blog today?

I dropped by for a visit yesterday afternoon and it was like a Preschool playground.

It'll be even worse today because now the northern Gulf coast is more in play.
Is there any idea WHEN we will know definitively which direction this storm will go?

Will we know by Monday morning?
3068. yqt1001
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It'll be even worse today because now the northern Gulf coast is more in play.


And NHC will probably issue advisories and stuff and start favouring specific people. Imho they will go the central route and go into Louisiana though.
Quoting Grothar:
\

Remember the good old days when we would get 14 or 15?

i.remember.the.80's.2or3
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

2005 didn't get it's D storm until July 5... That was a pretty memorable storm if I recall correctly.


Dennis, hit the western panhandle as a cat 3 if I recall correctly.
Here comes the low shear. Lil surface low sitting in the Bahamas too.

As far as track, we will all have a better picture after the HH hunters get in later today and start to get their fixes and data for the model runs later tonight.
3073. LargoFl
Yeah, those Mississippi and Alabama bloggers are real trouble makers. J/K.
Quoting LargoFl:

Ha! Is BayNews9 wishcasting?
Quoting yqt1001:


And NHC will probably issue advisories and stuff and start favouring specific people. Imho they will go the central route and go into Louisiana though.


They says they are favoring texas
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Another Florida vs. Texas blog today?

I dropped by for a visit yesterday afternoon and it was like a Preschool playground.


It's pointless now to keep arguing over where this is going to go with any confidence. Anywhere in the gulf is still in play now.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Another Florida vs. Texas blog today?

I dropped by for a visit yesterday afternoon and it was like a Preschool playground.
Reminds me of the ol' Sonic v. Mario debates. Ahh, good times.
if the itcz stayed this far south it can lead to systems like felix,ivan ,emily,dean but with a north component to it this is very dangerous
3080. pcola57
.
Let's try to keep the "frenzy-casting" on the Blog down today until we get the model runs later this evening..........lol.
3082. LargoFl
..................hardly a raindrop over in the texas area,although there are some minor coastal flood warnings,but thats the same all over the entire gulf i guess
3083. GPTGUY
Quoting yqt1001:


And NHC will probably issue advisories and stuff and start favouring specific people. Imho they will go the central route and go into Louisiana though.


Yeah I wouldn't be surprised to see TS watches/warnings from Grand Isle, LA. to Indian Pass, FL.(near Apalachicola) posted this afternoon or tonight.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If we get Debby today, it would be the first time in history that 4 named storms formed in the Atlantic before July and the first time since 2005 that two named storms formed in June.


And this is a "normal" year..... and in reality it appears it is going to be a "active" year instead.
4 named storms before July is big..

Good morning everyone,

I am going to try and take a peek in here from time to time today while at work.

It looks like no one model agrees where 96L is going...
and isn't the spelling going to be "Debby"????
I thought I saw some other variations earlier back (Not CyberTeddy)


enjoy your weekend!
Quoting bayoubug:
how far north could this move before the east or west turn....
It could go all the way to the bayou's before being shunted eastward.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Another Florida vs. Texas blog today?

I dropped by for a visit yesterday afternoon and it was like a Preschool playground.


I stayed away most the day because of. Seems a little better at night.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
It could go all the way to the bayou's before being shunted eastward.


Westward*
Pressure down another two clicks; winds are holding at 30 knots. Looks like today's the day...

AL, 96, 2012062312, , BEST, 0, 254N, 876W, 30, 1002, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 280, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Much talk about numbers...numbers are chalked up in the Atlantic where there will sheer this season. Just because we are getting an unusual number of home grown storms early doesn't necessarily mean that we are going to chalk up a huge number of storms this year.
Quoting GPTGUY:


Yeah I wouldn't be surprised to see TS watches/warnings from Grand Isle, LA. to Indian Pass, FL.(near Apalachicola) posted this afternoon or tonight.


THE NHC SAID THEY FAVORED A WESTWARD MOTION METEOROLOGICALLY
3091. pcola57
.
3092. LargoFl
East coast runner?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Pressure down another two clicks; winds are holding at 30 knots. Looks like today's the day...

AL, 96, 2012062312, , BEST, 0, 254N, 876W, 30, 1002, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Soon to be the Declaration of a named storm me thinks
La dee dah. How I love the ignore feature.
Quoting weatherh98:


They says they are favoring texas

Did anything ever come out of that set of pink French Doors on the Navy site?
Quoting ilovehurricanes12:
i am prepare for a Cat 2 hurricane with winds up to 100 mph!!




Bully for you.
3098. GPTGUY
Quoting weatherh98:


THE NHC SAID THEY FAVORED A WESTWARD MOTION METEOROLOGICALLY


Yeah but the Northern Gulf is closer and the further north it moves the closer it gets to the Northern Gulf Coast..once the system takes that westward track assuming it does..then the watches and warnings will be modified from the east and be issued west.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Pressure down another two clicks; winds are holding at 30 knots. Looks like today's the day...

AL, 96, 2012062312, , BEST, 0, 254N, 876W, 30, 1002, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 280, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


Let's see if they renumber it.
Irrespective of the current position of the low over the Gulf Eddy, water temps across the Northern Gulf are averaging around the 82 degree mark so she has good SST's to track over.
3101. LargoFl
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
700 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-231400-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
700 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2012

.NOW...
...SPRINKLES OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING...

THROUGH 10 AM...SPRINKLES OF VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION
OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP
God morning everyone. Wow, can't believe we are looking at the possibility of FOUR named storms before July 1!! At this rate, I am going to be out of my stockpile of Cheetos and Fresca before July 15!!

Anyhow, glad to see some old "friends" on the blog and some new additions. Always a good time to share OPINIONS and thoughts and learn new things. Love this blog.

You all have a GREAT day,and I will be lurking off and on while we wait, watch and see what (possibly) Miss Debby will or won't do.
3103. Grothar
Image with convergence

For some perspective, 96L has moved 2.9° N, 0.7° E in the last 24 hours. Not a harbringer for future movement, just an observation.
Assuming 96L eventually becomes TS Debby--which is all but assured to happen today--2012 will be considerably ahead of the curve. Exactly two months ahead, in fact; the average date for the fourth named storm to form is August 23. And if Debby then goes on to become a hurricane, it's even more ahead, given that the average second hurricane doesn't form until August 28.

However, it's important to keep in mind something Dr. Masters has repeatedly mentioned: early activity is no harbinger of a hyper-active, or even above-average, season. Quick fact: of last year's 19 named storms, 15 formed prior to "peak day", September 10; only four formed after that.

hurricane

Source
It looks like a ull taking shape south of Lake Charles..
3107. Cat5hit
And here come the gas price increases... Already shutting down rigs in the Gulf of Mexico...

Rig Evacuations
Quoting redwagon:

Did anything ever come out of that set of pink French Doors on the Navy site?
The NHC said it in a discussion this morning
Recon is on today per a contact that I have with the Hunters
maYBE Debby will do this!!
I hate to say but 96L looks a little um, disgusting, ugly? Misformed?


We should see a renumber this afternoon. Just needs a little more convection first.
3114. WxLogic
LLC is a bit elongated, but coming together at a decent pace. Based on Sat observations... I estimate the LLC to be at 26N 87W:

All you weather freaks should add this to your bookmarks and favorites. It's a site that animates current wind direction and speed on a national map. Check it out :D
Quoting GPTGUY:


Yeah but the Northern Gulf is closer and the further north it moves the closer it gets to the Northern Gulf Coast..once the system takes that westward track assuming it does..then the watches and warnings will be modified from the east and be issued west.

I can see they would do it for the rain shield but dang the floridians would flip
Quoting WxLogic:
LLC is a bit elongated, but coming together at a decent pace. Based on Sat observations... I estimate the LLC to be at 26N 87W:

I'm thinking the center is near the small blow up of thunderstorms just to the SSW of your circle.
Good morning all. Looks like nothings changed. Its still north east & west.
Quoting WxLogic:
LLC is a bit elongated, but coming together at a decent pace. Based on Sat observations... I estimate the LLC to be at 26N 87W:



No 24.5 n
I was looking at some of th,e NOAA maps this morning and it appears some of the moisture was pulled into the pacific.

The majority if the moisrture right now appears to be just west of fl


Anyone else see this or am I not looking at it right?
Quoting ilovehurricanes12:
maYBE Debby will do this!!


ok, I will bite. For the love of God, how in the world can you post this when...if...Debby does form and "Debby" is NOT EVEN REMOTELY ANYWHERE NEAR THIS TRACK THAT IRENE TOOK!! I mean, REALLY??? You have had some way off base comments so far, but this one is just off the charts. Trying to stir up trouble? Troll???? Whatever. Done. Poof.
3123. ncstorm
Good Morning Everyone..

I wonder if the Doc still think florida is still in the bullseye? It looks like too many models got texas for this one but of course all things can change once recon gets in there too..what a day this is going to be..
3124. Cat5hit
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning Everyone..

I wonder if the Doc still think florida is still in the bullseye? It looks like too many models got texas for this one but of course all things can change once recon gets in there too..what a day this is going to be..


Looking more like they think AL/LA/MS is going to be in the cone. Sorry if I ticked off the Texas and Florida caster group.
3125. icmoore
Quoting weatherh98:

I can see they would do it for the rain shield but dang the floridians would flip


Better watch out for flippin' Floridians :)
3126. WxLogic
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I'm thinking the center is near the small blow up of thunderstorms just to the SSW of your circle.


Indeed... is currently elongated SSW to NE/NNE, but I do believe that circulation is decaying. Of course we'll see as the day progresses if my thinking is not correct.
3127. ackee
How confident are u that the 2012 seasons will be average or below Normal base on the number storms we have seen so far ?
A 60
B 50
C 40
D 30
E 20
F 10
Converge and Divergence is excellent on 96L. Shear has dropped over the system to a moderate 10kts, and the 850mb vorticity has really come together overnight. I believe it is entirely possible that when the recon comes in, they will find Tropical Storm Debby.
now even alabama and mississipi are under the models gun.
as time goes on, model agreement goes down

now we have w, e , n :(
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Converge and Divergence is excellent on 96L. Shear has dropped over the system to a moderate 10kts, and the 850mb vorticity has really come together overnight. I believe it is entirely possible that when the recon comes in, they will find Tropical Storm Debby.


Cybr, you think the more north it goes,Texas will not have to deal with it?
and the low appears very far north, which is why i think some of the models have this getting the gulf coast now.

not as far south as you would think.

going east could help the center push under the convection, going west would give it more time but would slow down the process.

anyway, we will have to see.
It is lasting through this morning and as long as the convec survives the late morning and afternoon hours, we will be good to go with debby


center appears to be in line with tampa, with a more northerly llc taking over the one in line with the keys area
Today is June 23, Sonic's birthday. Happy Birthday Sonic!
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Today is June 23, Sonic's birthday. Happy Birthday Sonic!
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Today is June 23, Sonic's birthday. Happy Birthday Sonic!

Yay, I told my dad that sonic the hedgehog is turning 31 today and he said it made him feel old...lol


little outflow lines down by cuba if you can see them
I think I will load up on Hurricane B Gone.
about as bad of Model Splits i have seen for some time...

3137. Grothar
3138. dearmas
Quoting mobileshadow:
Recon is on today per a contact that I have with the Hunters


what time???
3139. spathy
Quoting TampaSpin:
about as bad of Model Splits i have seen for some time...



Looks like they threw the model against the wall.
Hummm?
Now what looks like its sticking?
Su Ostro says:
- There is a lot of deep convection (rain/thunderstorms), but it's as asymmetric as can be -- exceptionally lopsided to the east -- which is indicative of upper-level winds blowing from west to east across the west half of the system, and which are a limiting factor for quick intensification.

He also says the CMC is probably not right because it rams debby straight into a high, but it was also the first model to jump on the westward track so we may want to watch it
LoL
Yep, you know what they say about those Floridians!
Morning - looks like we have more wait & see...

Quoting icmoore:


Better watch out for flippin' Floridians :)
3142. Grothar
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning Everyone..

I wonder if the Doc still think florida is still in the bullseye? It looks like too many models got texas for this one but of course all things can change once recon gets in there too..what a day this is going to be..


It looks like almost all the models have the system doing a 360 in the middle of the Gulf. It will be interesting to see that. I know it will be fun to watch the blog.
A lot of rain is headed for Florida, and I don't even care whether the low center heads this way or not, as long as it freaking rains hard, lol.


Really though, this is a complex situation, it is entirely possible that this low(maybe soon debby) will move due norther then stall close to the gulf coast( Mississipi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle) and basically just sit and dump extreme rainfall amounts.

There are really a lot of solutions, some of them bring lots of drought relief, and other may bring some of us more rain then we would bargain for.
3144. WxLogic
Quoting TampaSpin:
about as bad of Model Splits i have seen for some time...



Based on the low position on that map and the GFS track overlay... sure looks like is following GFS.
Anybody seen Ike from Defuniak Springs, FL lately?
Quoting Jedkins01:
A lot of rain is headed for Florida, and I don't even care whether the low center heads this way or not, as long as it freaking rains hard, lol.


Really though, this is a complex situation, it is entirely possible that this low(maybe soon debby) will move due norther then stall close to the gulf coast( Mississipi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle) and basically just sit and dump extreme rainfall amounts.

There are really a lot of solutions, some of them bring lots of drought relief, and other may bring some of us more rain then we would bargain for.
tampa's.radar.very.heavy.rain.out.there
3148. USCGLT
Regardless of which way this goes, water is already piling up along the central Gulf Coast. Depending on how long it takes and if she goes west it could get a little ugly from Mobile Bay west through New Orleans...What really bums me out though is Snapper Season is quickly coming a close and I can't get out there to "Cull the heard"
Quoting TampaSpin:
about as bad of Model Splits i have seen for some time...




What that means is we have about a 50/50 shot of seeing either movement, it may just mean that either direction could pull the system, its also possible that when it reaches that point to go either left and right that it will just stall. If it did, rainfall From the Mississippi coast eastward down to the southwest Florida coast would likely be extreme.
Quoting panamasteve:
Anybody seen Ike from Defuniak Springs, FL lately?


He was banned along with STORMW lol.
3152. Bitmap7
Apparently this is already impacting gas prices.

Link
3155. icmoore
Quoting Beachfoxx:
LoL
Yep, you know what they say about those Floridians!
Morning - looks like we have more wait & see...




Good morning :) Yep you and Patti know what I mean LOL! I have sitting here for days how many more days will I be held captive by this!?!
Quoting islander101010:
tampa's.radar.very.heavy.rain.out.there


did you break your spacebar?
lol

looks like houston will not get hit by this, but i still see it as possible given that the low is further north than anticipated.
We will have to see, but mexico could end up being where this goes
3158. ncstorm
Quoting Grothar:


It looks like almost all the models have the system doing a 360 in the middle of the Gulf. It will be interesting to see that. I know it will be fun to watch the blog.


they are all thinking the stall is going to happen..its after the stall where the confusion comes in..will it be the trough or the ridge that determines the path of this system??
Quoting Articuno:

Yay, I told my dad that sonic the hedgehog is turning 31 today and he said it made him feel old...lol
Make that 21 lol! His first game was released June 23, 1991. You're probably thinking of Mario lol
3160. JNCali
WOuld love to see Debby bring significant rain to GA..
Quoting Jedkins01:



What that means is we have about a 50/50 shot of seeing either movement, it may just mean that either direction could pull the system, its also possible that when it reaches that point to go either left and right that it will just stall. If it did, rainfall From the Mississippi coast eastward down to the southwest Florida coast would likely be extreme.


One run of the models showed showed a stall right off the ms/al coast with extreme rainfall.
3162. Dakster
Quoting seriousman1:


i spoke to stormtop and he advised me to get ready for a CAT 2 HURRICANE FOR PEOPLE IN LA AND MS..he will have a statement from his weather office later today..



Where are those hurricane tunnels from cyclonebuster when you need them? (jk)

Quoting GetReal:


The center is becoming better defined at 24.1N and 87.8W still slowly tracking north. There is still plenty of shear preventing 96L from wrapping convection around the west side of the system.



Shear stop, I command thee
3164. Grothar
Quoting ncstorm:


they are all thinking the stall is going to happen..its after the stall where the confusion comes in..will it be the trough or the ridge that determines the path of this system??


Yep, timing is everything with this one. I think some of the models had expected it to be stronger by this time. I guess that could also change things. The weaker it remains, the more stalled it could become.
3165. KORBIN
Models mean nothing right now, I think by later on this afternoon we will have a much better idea on track, strength.

I am sure they will send out both birds out, the High Altitude Recon and the Regular recon flight to get a good idea of the conditions in the atmosphere.

I would have a tendancy to think by this evening we will have much more consistent model runs.
I know exactly! I'm looking out over the bay, interesting that the water is a bit higher than norm....
Hoping to enjoy some sunshine today before the rains get here. Right now it's a question of where will she go? While we are all glued to the WX maps & models!
Quoting icmoore:



Good morning :) Yep you and Patti know what I mean LOL! I have sitting here for days how many more days will I be held captive by this!?!
3167. Grothar
Quoting Dakster:



Where are those hurricane tunnels from cyclonebuster when you need them? (jk)



Dak!!!!
Hello again [in a long while] guys and good morning I'm not sure if we have the new models up by now but last time I checked.....




ANYWHERE hehe
Quoting SFLWeatherman:

Station 42003
NDBC
Location: 26.044N 85.612W
Date: Sat, 23 Jun 2012 09:50:00 UTC
Winds: SE (130°) at 27.2 kt gusting to 29.1 kt
Significant Wave Height: 10.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSE (159°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.69 in and falling
Air Temperature: 77.5 F
Water Temperature: 82.4 F



1005.4mb
3171. Dakster
Hey Gro! Long time...

Thought I would pop in and say hello...
3172. emguy
It's unfornate that a lot of folks were not able to see this as it unfolded last night. A wind surge moved up into the NE quadrant of the gulf...Several "gyres" popped out along the way, but it was clear with that wind surge that things would get going further north. The system has worked off all of those gyres and the low is just underneath the western edge of the convection. At this point...the system is north of where the models called...a smidge east as well. Ahead of schedule for sure, but will likely slowdown a bit now. I've figured this was an eastern gulf event as eastern gulf systems stay in the eastern gulf in June. Mean time, while merit could be played to the westward models such as the EURO, CMC, and UKMET, their depiction of the strength of the Bermuda High was always dismissed. As before, I still believe the GFS had a bite on it and now that things are where they are, the door on the westward models has likely been slammed shut. This is a North Florida in June type tropical storm that will likely cross the shore beween Tampa and Apalachicola.
Quoting KORBIN:
Models mean nothing right now, I think by later on this afternoon we will have a much better idea on track, strength.

I am sure they will send out both birds out, the High Altitude Recon and the Regular recon flight to get a good idea of the conditions in the atmosphere.

I would have a tendancy to think by this evening we will have much more consistent model runs.
key.west.radar.shows.it.moving..n.e
Looks like the GOM wants to play spin the bottle with this one!
even if the gfs is wrong with the trough pulling 96L out, it deepens this significantly before the storm moves either direction.
There is a good chance we could see a hurricane from this.
3172. I disagree, look at the last few GFS runs. See how it develops a seperate low by Florida? None of the models are showing that, and that is why it gets pulled NE - the low by the east coast of Florida that would become ''Ernesto'' in that situation influences it and pulls it into the trough. This is a classic example of the GFS's greatest flaw - convective feedback. All this energy in the Gulf and the GFS doesn't really know what to do with it, so it develops separate lows. This should be discarded IMO from the forecast unless other models start showing a separate low in the Atlantic.
3177. ncstorm
CMC Ensembles


NCEP Ensembles Forecast
hey guys I think we will get a TS by ATCF at 18Z NHC Advisorys will start at either 2pm or 5pm and TS W/W along the E and N gulf states
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Pressure down another two clicks; winds are holding at 30 knots. Looks like today's the day...

AL, 96, 2012062312, , BEST, 0, 254N, 876W, 30, 1002, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 280, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


but it does not upgrades it.. keeping it as a low for the 8 am update. so no 11 am TD ot TS
Quoting mcluvincane:


He was banned along with STORMW lol.


Hmmm, OK.....
ECMWF really wants to rapid intesify this.
I think at some point this will undergo a rapid intensifation spurt, but sometime after the euro wants it to.

right now it has the loop current
Looking at the latest sat. images you can see the LLC near 25.9N/86.5W also it seems that some pop up tstorms have flare up east and North of the COC. We should have Debby this evening.
Quoting reedzone:
I believe we have at least a Tropical Depression in the GOM, but the NHC will wisely wait till recon investigates later today.

I believe it will go straight to tropical storm strength.
Link
Quoting emguy:


I would appreciate it if you could share the link with us that shows the data at this buoy station. Further insight and information is always appreciated.
Quoting Bitmap7:
Apparently this is already impacting gas prices.

Link


I'm sorry but I have to comment in this. The "storm" is NOT effecting GAS prices per the article. If you were to read the entire article it discusses the price of a barrel of OIL not gas and the increase of a whopping $1.90 was primarily caused by the stenghening of the euro against the dollar.

There are a couple of sentences, very poorly worded, about some "port and Murphy oil". Yes, full evacuation, not just nonessential personnel, may cause a small spike in a barrel but unless it's a cat 4 and wipes out production this "storm" will have minor impact on gasoline prices.

Ok, I feel better. Back to sleep until this thing decides which way to go.

3187. jpsb
Quoting USCGLT:
Regardless of which way this goes, water is already piling up along the central Gulf Coast. Depending on how long it takes and if she goes west it could get a little ugly from Mobile Bay west through New Orleans..."
Water is piling up in Galveston Bay too.
Quoting canehater1:
Link

Visible Sat. GOM
Good way to see COC....Check the "fronts" box

and click "zoom" then click on the L in the sattelite

presentation until it zooms in tight....


Looks to me the low is NE of the shown Low
Good Morning everyone. I see our Gulf of Mexico critter is firing up convection today, but still looks a bit lopsided. I wonder how strong the shear is over the system and is it forecast to relax?
Quoting WxGeekVA:


We should see a renumber this afternoon. Just needs a little more convection first.


She just got a big thunderstorm on the south side where an eye would form
Quoting WxGeekVA:


We should see a renumber this afternoon. Just needs a little more convection first.



That little circulation sure has some big pull,look at them clouds screaming towards the center from far away!
Is it just me or does it seem like a lot of E-Pac storms get their act together much more rapidly than the ones in the Atlantic. I mean, I can't even recall the last time I saw an E-pac storm have a lopsided and stretched out look to it. I wonder why that is.
Quoting WxLogic:
LLC is a bit elongated, but coming together at a decent pace. Based on Sat observations... I estimate the LLC to be at 26N 87W:



I think ya nailed it pretty close :)
I say anywhere from Matagorda bay TX to Morgan city LA should be on alert
Quoting Grothar:


Getting some ok outflow?
NASA sees tropical trouble brewing in southern Gulf of Mexico
Posted on June 23, 2012

June 23, 2012 – GULF OF MEXICO - It’s quite likely that the fourth tropical cyclone of the North Atlantic Hurricane Season is brewing in the southern Gulf of Mexico, more specifically, in the Yucatan Channel. The Yucatan Channel lies between Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Tropical depressions seem to have a habit of forming on weekends, and this low appears to be following that habit. On Friday, June 22 at 0900 UTC (5 a.m. EDT), System 96L was located near 22.5 North and 89.5 West, near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The GOES-13 satellite continually monitors the eastern U.S. and provides updated visible and infrared imagery. An image from June 22 at 1601 UTC (12:01 p.m. EDT) shows a large low pressure area near the Yucatan’s northern coast with disorganized showers and thunderstorms. In the image, some of the thunderstorms near the center of the low appear to be higher than the surrounding clouds, which indicates they are higher and stronger. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that atmospheric pressure on the surface continues to fall, indicating that the low pressure area is intensifying. Forecasters at NHC give System 96L a 70 percent chance of becoming the fourth tropical depression of the Atlantic Hurricane season, sometime over the weekend. Meanwhile, System 96L is expected to move slowly northward into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend (June 23-24). The NHC notes “Interests along the entire United States Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance through the weekend. Heavy rains and localized flooding are possible across the Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and southern Florida through Saturday.” -Physics
3198. Hhunter
Bastardi was on the fence if not favoring florida until a.m visible sat pic. He know is pretty much on the Texas horse with Debbie to be most likely Port Lavaca south to mexican border as area of concern.

Cat 1-2 with slight chance gets stacked and ramps to cat 4
Nearly 9,000 evacuated as Utah fire explodes
Posted on June 23, 2012

June 23, 2012 – SALT LAKE CITY — Thousands of homes were evacuated from two small Utah communities on Friday as high winds whipped up a brush fire triggered by target shooters and pushed the flames toward houses and a nearby explosives factory. The so-called Dump fire erupted Thursday in the Kiowa Valley near a landfill for Saratoga Springs, a town of 18,000 on the west shore of Utah Lake, about 35 miles south of Salt Lake City. Nearly 9,000 people had been evacuated, Utah County Sheriff’s Sgt. Spencer Cannon told The Deseret News....

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47926409/ns/weather/