WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 92L spins up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:09 AM GMT on October 15, 2006

A non-tropical low pressure area has developed in the Gulf of Mexico just off the coast of Mexico, about 300 miles south of Brownsville, Texas. This disturbance has been designated "92L" by NHC this evening, and does have a small chance of developing into a tropical storm. If it does develop, it would likely move north-northeast and strike the coast of Texas or Louisiana on Monday or Tuesday. The pressure has fallen significantly at Tuxpan, Mexico, and was 1005 mb at 7pm EDT. Winds over the waters just offshore the Mexican coast were as high as 40-50 mph in this morning's QuikSCAT pass, but were only 15-20 mph in this evening's 8:11pm EDT pass. A new QuikSCAT pass is due at 10am EDT Sunday. The satellite appearance of 92L has degraded markedly in the past few hours, with most of the heavy thunderstorm activity moving far east away from the center. There is very little shower activity associated with 92L visible on long-range Brownsville radar this evening. Unfortunately, the Mexican radar for this region has been down since September 3.

The disturbance is under about 15 knots of shear this evening, which is low enough to allow development into a tropical storm. However, the storm is moving towards an area of much higher shear (40 knots!), and this higher shear may cause significant trouble for the disturbance. Shear is forecast to drop significantly in the Gulf beginning Monday, so there may be a window of opportunity that day for 92L to grow into a tropical storm. I'm really not expecting this to become a tropical storm, but if it does, it would likely not have time to grow to more than a 50-mph storm.

Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the Gulf of Mexico disturbance, 92L.

I'll ba back with an update late Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr M
sorry sebastianjer
where is everyone

maybe ryang but obviously you are for even asking without reason
Do I count as everyone?
: )
I think that everybody is watching FL vs AU

Let's see what 92L does overnight. Have a good weekened
what do you mean sebastianjer
Great job 1900hurricane, will be spending time going over all of it. thanks
ryang what do you mean calling me stupid?
1990hurricane you do count as everyone
Posted By: ryang at 9:25 PM CDT on October 14, 2006.

1990hurricane you do count as everyone

I knew it!
: )
heh ah i was right 92L
Good call tazmanian!
Indeed, you were right! And 92L is right under my very nose!
Where is everyone tonight?
I think everyone watching the game is going to be surprised when they get back to the wu.
Dr Masters, thanks for the late update. I cannot belive there is something to watch in the GULF now. I say NOOOOO to any storms anywhere for the rest of this year!

Have a great weekend!
What game? The Tigers won tonight, so what is there to watch?
sebastianjer i said sorry
good night taz
I find it fascinating how everyone here seems to ignore the latest NHC forecast (see link) because these is a blob of tropical moisture in the GOM that they wish to see become a tropical storm. The latest satellite loops also do not seem to support the idea of a strenghtening system.

Ryang_ I accept your appology but why did you even think to say, shall I say it-yes, say such a stupid thing, lol
Whoops! Sorry, all this cold weather talk got me making homemade chili, wasn't paying attention.
92L is fizzling out with each new frame. I'm still sticking with my prediction that she's just a flair up.
...no destruction, but we could use some rain.
Does anybody like to make fantasycanes?
92L is getting pretty well shredded by shear. The convection is being blown way east of the center which makes it next to impossible for it to do much. The steering currents should take the system north while the moisture it needs to do anything heads east.
31. HCW
shear is very light around 92L so don't count it out and condtions will be better over the next couple of days for it to develop

I heard that 92L is a non tropical low.
ABNT20 KNHC 150213
1030 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2006





Dr. Masters said it's heading to an area with 40 knots of shear.
bottom of the 8th, Cards are up 5 to zip!!!! YIPEE!!!
36. HCW
The current NHC forecast seems like the guys at the NHC want to take the day off tomorrow and not talk about what this thing has a chance at really doing.

Check the shear charts for yourself and you will see very little shear over the system .
I think the chances are slim in my opinion that we see any significant development from invest 92L.Upper level winds do not favor it.
Even if it does develope, which I doubt it will, she will be no stronger than Tropical Storm Matthew.
You can see on IR imagery that the deep convection that were in the GOM earlier has just about fizzled.

good night 23
Posted By: SLINKY at 2:43 AM GMT on October 15, 2006.

I find it fascinating how everyone here seems to ignore the latest NHC forecast (see link) because these is a blob of tropical moisture in the GOM that they wish to see become a tropical storm. The latest satellite loops also do not seem to support the idea of a strenghtening system.

I also find it annoying that the NHC was dead
wrong with there forcasts this year and last year.

but look at this part on what dr m said

for 92L

Shear is forecast to drop significantly in the Gulf beginning Monday, so there may be a window of opportunity that day for 92L to grow into a tropical storm. I'm really not expecting this to become a tropical storm, but if it does, it would likely not have time to grow to more than a 50-mph storm.
23 i am surpried you are up so late .Where you watching the game
Forecasting tropical weather is a hard job.
Taz there will probably be nothing left in the western gulf come monday.
Nothing like a blob in the GOM.... It will be bringing a lot of rain and flooding to the MS/LA/FL panhandle areas.

Aside: If anyone can do a better job than the NHC, then by all means, do so.
taz good night
48. HCW
new model runs are up from GT 7


This hybrid hopefully brings Mobile AL some rain cause we have been in a drought over the last year. This thing could still could bring 60 mph + winds to marine areas .
This plot shows why it isn't very likely to do much.
for example
Katrina (thought at first that it would only
atleast become a CAT 2 and hit peniscola due to dry air)
ryang iam a B-ball fan besides weather basketball is a huge part of my life.
And also last years hurricane season dified
NATURE! I can name these storms that they were
wrong about


and this year was even worse
Guys I feel like vulcher chewing on nothing more then dry bones. It's game time!
stormchaser77 whether 92L becomes a TD or a weak TS the affects will be the same with heavy rain being the biggest threat. Adrian
If we found Earth Like Planets
what would the weather be like if it was bigger
than Earth?
Is there a baseball game on tonight?
i agree with 23 taz
Posted By: CybrTeddy at 10:25 PM CDT on October 14, 2006.

If we found Earth Like Planets
what would the weather be like if it was bigger
than Earth?

Hmmm...I've never thought of that! Bigger and stronger weather systems? Bigger hurricanes?
1900hurricane u into NBA basketball?
I've updated my blog, so if anyone wants to stop by, feel free!
23 why do you say adrian at the end of a comment
hey hurricane23 i send you an email the other day
23, the issue is the tract a bunch of temp housing are in the possible tract so duration and tract are a issue to be looked at.
Ya, I keep track of the Rockets, but I am also a hardcore Astros fan!!! They SO should have gotten to the playoffs this year!!!

Astros in '07!!!
1990hurricane you said you updated your blog a 100 times now .Is no one going to your blog
Posted By: ryang at 11:30 PM EDT on October 14, 2006.

23 why do you say adrian at the end of a comment.

Uh...because it has been for 28 years now.Almost 29 in 2 weeks.
good night miamiweather
Posted By: ryang at 10:30 PM CDT on October 14, 2006.

23 why do you say adrian at the end of a comment

Adrian is his name, and he wants everyone to know that. We had a little...issue about that a few months back.
so 23 that is your real name right
1900hurricane iam a huge b-ball fan i played high school ball for a couple of years and played 1 year of collage.I play like 2-3 a week at the University of miami gym.
Posted By: ryang at 10:32 PM CDT on October 14, 2006.

1990hurricane you said you updated your blog a 100 times now .Is no one going to your blog

I update it quite frequently because I am constantly finding new information and I am too lazy to write a new one. Also, I can see a few people on this page that didn't see my comment on my blog from last page.

If I am over-publicizing, just tell me and I will stop.
: )
Keep up the good work 1900
I'm going to try out for my high school baseball team in '07. I'm ok at 1st base and a decent power hitter, but so are many other people in a high school of 5,000!
ryang, a snail is a snail so do you ask it how fast its traveling?
where did miamiweather go
second that 1900
sandcrab39565 do you think i am stupid
anyone here a fan of football
No Ryang, no one is stupid but read the content not context of the responses and there lies the truth.
sorry i meant cricket
Oh, and by the way, I am 1900hurricane, not 1990hurricane!
: )
1900hurricane Iam a big tracy mcgrady fan but unfortunately he doesnt come to play every night.Yao ming is to soft in my opinion.My 3 favorite players are MJ D-wade and Kobe.
all right sandcrab39565.Thanhs for the advice
Based the forecast maps from Dr. M of invest 92L, the center of this system is expected off the SE Texas coast on Monday. Even if it still even exists by then, the forecast upper level winds in that area area at that time (see link) are going to be around 40-50 kt from the SW. Can anyone spell "shear"?

miamiweather how come you are not saying anything
SLINKY 2006 Hurricane Season=Unfavorable Conditions.
Ryang be young or old we all learn from each other select your questions to what you would really like to know and you will get a remendous response. There are some very knowledgable folks in here that would love to share thier knowledge with you.
When does the NBA season start? When hurricane season ends?
slinky where did you come from all of a sudden
yes also if the hurricanes are bigger
man bad days for the little Green Men
because i don't refresh for a while then i read through what people write i don't think 92L is gonna make it past the night though i just saw it in the news and it is being torn apart like slinky says
Second that sandcrab39565!
Hurricane season is Suppose to end Nov.1 but last year made a mockery of that.lol
1990hurricane i do not no when the basketball season starts but the hurricane season ends on the 30th of november
Does anyone want to see a very small hurricane?
1900hurricane the season starts on halloween the 31st with the heat playing that night followed by the Lakers in a double header.Everything starts on TNT at 8:00pm.
slinky was right
I know when hurricane season ends (but it had to be extended for the last three years), but I wondered if that is aprox. when the NBA season starts.
101. ryang
1990hurricane i want to see a small hurricane
Ok night all keep an eye on the GOM lets not let one sneak up on us. lol Nite
Can anyone spell "shear"?


Did I spell shear right?
theres been a pattren
for all those whos saying 07 will be inactive
will get a suprise
1900, the only worry is that the frontal system is suppose to back up on the northern gulf region. If that occurs the shear will retreat with it.

Tiny Hurricane!
: )
I amuse myself too easily!
1900hurricane check your mail!
Your turn hurricane23!
I dare someone to find a smaller hurricane than me!
Posted By: CybrTeddy at 10:54 PM CDT on October 14, 2006.

theres been a pattren
for all those whos saying 07 will be inactive
will get a suprise


3x smaller hurricane and a CAT 4

That's not a hurricane! Bet you can't find a smaller hurricane!
: )
Although that is the smallest tropical cyclone in the world...
Like the comic MichealSTL! Have you seen my updated blog?

Bet you can't find a smaller hurricane than me!
: )
So let me get this right so i can rest easy. 92L is going NNE, then its going NE, then its going ENE, and then curving SE? SOUTH! Am i mistaken or is this thing curving back around south? and what will it do then? I'm so confused!
Anybody ever theorized on what hurricanes were like during the time of the dinosaurs?

were I live snow is a blessing!
I would kill for a blizzard right about now.
Fairweatherhome, where do you live? I don't mind snow, unless it is like what Michigan and New York got recently.
Red sox!
122. ryang
good night everyone
Here is a pic of rita from one of my albums.Here central pressure in this pic was 898mb with winds gusting over 170mph.

I live near Portland OR. was 2003 an El Nino year?, because we got a ton of snow that year, which is rare.
Aint she a beauty.
2002 was an El Nino year and the winter of 2002-2003 was likely influenced by El Nino. Before this, the winter of 1997-1998 was during an El Nino (much stronger).
is anyone buying that track for 92l
at this time ?/
JUSTCOASTING your right the bulls did rule but my friend those days are history with Scottie pippen being one of the best all around definsive players in nba history and of course MJ the best ever.The current bulls are a team full of rookies just learning.

Bill -no it looks already east to much i say panhandle
I've lived an extreme weather deprived life. I could use some wild weather. The only extreme thing I think I've experienced was the horribly hot summer we had to contend with.
Stormy3, especially this season, the early computer models have been WAY off. Another problem the NHC has had is overstating the strength of developing systems. This disturbance may fizzle out. Like Dr. Masters' states, wind shear lightens up on Monday so there may be a window of opportunity for this system to become a tropical storm. If it heads more NE or ENE before landfall this may buy it another day or two.
Skiles is a goodfriend of mine and has a bunch of great players this year
Thanks Michael, Is it possible that the El Nino could have made the winter of 2003 so snowy?
Here's one more pic of Rita moving threw the florida straights.

9:32 were I am, how do you east coast boys do it?
GainsvilleGator, thanks for answering, I was picturing this thing doing a complete loop based on that model.
Once again, she's a beaut!
This is our life lol fairweather
Where is home fairweather?
Please don't take offence, but that kind of sounds a little sad.
Were do I live, you ask? Washougal!
By tommorow morning there will nothing left in the GOM.I dont remember seeing a season with so many invest that just went poof like we've had in 2006.
It's the law of hurriacne ballance.
In plain English, what goes up must come down.

The symmetrical shape of Rita on that satellite image is eye pleasing.
Fairweatherhome that is absolutely correct...2005 saw nearly perfect atmospheric conditions for development all season long.Over all we are in an active hurricane cycle and it does not mean every season is going to be super active.2006 has proven that we can still have slow seasons even if we are in an active period.Its a way mother nature balances things out.
Am I alone on this planet?
Thank you Hurricane23, I could have not said it better myself.
Fairweatherhome check your mail....
And there is something to the slowest hurricane seasons as well. If you look at seasons 1929, 1977, and others, you will see that they had one really strong storm that formed. I think It all has to do with ballance. You have a very inactive season, all that hot moist water builds up and explodes one way or another.
oh dont froget me
who wanna play a guessing game for hurricanes?
Why not.
Thanks Adrian, you can call me Dani if you want.
Dani Persistant Trofiness was there all season long preventing any cape-verde system form ever reaching the U.S.El nino conditions are set to be with us threw atleast early 07.
Guys, check out the satellite off the west coast of Mexico. I think there might be something forming right on the coast!
I just home that El Nino has a positive effect on my White Christmas dream.
Upper-level winds are very fast in the western gulf thats why all convection has fizzled tonight.
Dani were do u live again if you dont mine me asking?I live in miami a few blocks away from the national hurricane center.
it's got spiral bands and everything!
Can we trade places! I live in beautiful but boring Washougal Washington.
It's strange, alot of people who visit my area say it reminds them of Spain.

Were you there for Andrew.
LOL!This season has been good to the U.S. which is great news as bring on the holidays.My prayers are still with those folks along the gulf coast as they are still trying to put there lives back together after katrina.
I personally believe that New Orleans will rise again.

Dani I lived in homestead at the time as andrew moved right over my house with its 150mph winds.That morning when we got out after andrew passed all i saw was total devastation everywere.The only thing that was left from my house was the bathroom that me my mom and my sister were staying in.Its a night i will carry with me for ever.
convection starting to flare again in gulf blob
Wow! the worst I ever saw was a windstorm in 1995 that tour off a few shingles and knocked the power out for one night.
How did you recover financially?
Just be thankful you are alive and you have a future.
For sure...Material things can be replaced but you cant replace life.
Well if I lived down there, I'd do everything in my power to get one of those dome houses. But then again, even today, storms of that magnitude are rare. It's worth the risk to live in paradise.
Rare is correct...But south florida has been very lucky and a storm like andrew will happen again its not a matter of if but when.
I still remember making almost a 5 hour line for 1 bag of ice after andrew.
No one can tell you how bad it is until they've been through it themselves.
It doesn't matter how many storms form in a given year, how many of them make landfall is what has the biggiest impact.
Well it's been great talking to you Adrian, good night!
Goodnight Dani it was nice talking to you to.
179. HCW
Convection is now fireing around 92L . I think that will will have something very impressive by 7am .

Shear remains very light dispite what the NHC says
yes see that too hcw if it holds its own it will be intresting to see what the new models will show . cant tell where its moving at this time can anyone tell thanks big reds are forming ti the west of it

also watching the one north of the bahamas
the two blobs in the gom are now holding hands into 1 big blob at 4am est hmmmmmmmm
blah, ok who let a blob form in the GOM?
92L is looking very healthy right now! Hope it stays in the Western GOM. We don't need it over here after the last two years!
Thats one good-lookin' blob we got this a.m.
Buoy 42002..Link
The trend is DOWN...Link
This one is up...Link
Heres the Run from earlier..Link
Morning Patrap
You an early riser too eh?
It may have a closed circulation according to that quickscat hope not though that would be a 45mph ts already
I get up sometime between 5:30 and 6:00
Morning Thunder:)
Everyone thinks I'm nuts cuz I get up around 5 or 6 even on weekends, it;s peaceful this time of morning:)
Winds are at almost at there highest they have been in days
I sometimes have gotton up bettween 4 and 5 on weekends!
Morning palmHarbor

Look at this Link
Am back..was reading paper Headlines..yes..Ol Baker here ..
Am here..was reading paper..LOL
server dizzy too
What is going on in Korea this morning
by the way did anyone notice that Norman regenerated and couldnt that affect (@L
Fox news ..Link
You stopda Mr.SmartyPants Patrap!..I go Blows upLink da Hurricane on you!..Silly American..you so stupid..
And di wether..Itso..freaky Hotzu..Howd youd handle did Heat..Crazy WUBA..MAN..Link
Give Thanks.... The glorious mornin come..... Hope everyone has a beautiful day. and glory to the most High too .......
Blobs a plenty..Link
Gm pottery
Come,Link you sit down..Tell mes all abouts it..
Yo trap, looks like some rain heading yr way by tuesday?????
Coffee time! I rise early too. Keep the links comin Pat!
GOM..Louisiana coastalLink SSts...
Yup..looks like a wet pattern thru thhe Thursday time frame
Our good buddy Kim lookin kinda clay-mation or somethin'.
Brownsville radar..Link
Who gave Kim the Mentos & Diet cokes for that explosion..is what I wanna Know..LOL!
The run from earlier..Link
Me no likie dat one...Link
Go Saints!
It's tough to be a 'fin fan lately.
My I-10 exit..Link
Can relate to that
Gonna go play some BF1942 be back when the vis pics come in.
This place should turn into Blob central after awhile this am..
227. HCW
Just as I had predicted in my last post this morning at 1am .. 92L is look rather impressive this morning and pressures are falling . Shear remains light and I am not sure why the NHC continues to discount this system when one look at the bouy reports and sat tell another story.

no it will be a TD or a TS at the 11 i think
The WV..GOM..Link
Predicted?..more like maybe observed..LOL
This could be bad for NO or pensacola I know DR Masters said it wouldnt nbe much more then a 50 mph storm but I fear worse

1. the high sheer is supposed to drop fast

2. th storm already has a few 45-50mph vectors in it

3. the waters are at least 28-29 degrees celcius

4. plenty of mosture

1+2+3+4=major storm
Time to get organised to potential..closing though...would really have to start dropping fast..to get beyond a T-storm
Buoy this hour..Link
Wowsa 80.4 dewpoint..thats juicy
what the wind sheer or the pressure
I really suck at reading data maps but from what I think I understand it doesn't look like the storm has alot of shear to deal with?
Yes, No, or I'm crazy?:)
Trending down still...Link
how do you convert in to mb
240. HCW
for all of you saying that this storm would be bad news for the central gulfcoast please remember that we have been in a drought since Katrina and that OCT is generaly a very dry month with very little rainfall. At best we are looking at some kind of hybrid storm with all the convection displaced well away from the center and a good soaking rainfall event.

No but the sheer is dropping it is between 20-30 kts right now but yet the shorm does not look lite it has that much
The Local mets tale from NOLA...Link
Rain creeping into the Lower coastal parishes..Link
Get out the rain coat pull up tha boots get ready snuggle under the tin roofs. Morning everyone
Im up already..LOL..Gm sand
My Exit Sand...Link
Pat the only trouble I am seeing is the local flooding of low lying areas and those areas that have debris blocking drainways. Momma flower pots might need to be secured other than that stay out of the boat and watch the crawfish mounds grow.
Yup..looks like plenty -o-rain ,,but not much else..Tides only1-2 ft above normal
Pat if needed ya can always come on over here.
Thanx..we fine.Have House here..and Sisters Brick double..Just in case.
Bet the blog gets crazy later..
Yep I bet it will. I am getting ready to set up safe havens for those that get nervous in the lil trailers. Just as a mental support issue.
Good Idea for sure.The elderly & Handicapped will be most nervous.
this looks like it is going between rita and katrina that will deffinetlly cause concern
Some better news ..not the same here as down there..Link
The embedded thunderstorms will rattle there nerves in the tin cans.
The sound temp is in the 70s now so no intensification will result for shure.
odd, Im not hearing anything on the weather reports about the blob...apparently no one thinks it's worth even mentioning.
Has the sky in view..and the Clouds are beginning to roll in from east to west..and the dewpoint rising here.
Sounds like a Florida view..No one interested in Louisiana..LOL..we used to that.
Palm, I dought you will much about it it is going to be a rain event mostly
Heres the IR view..Link
It just needs to wait till after 11:30 to rain lol I got my grillin to do.lol
If it was near the East coast of Fla..wed be Hearing the CAT-5 call..fo sho..LOL...We need the rain..Specially the Sugar CAne Growers.
Yeah..me to SAnd..have more birds to grill meself...keep my streak alive.
LOL They JUST mentioned it finally, NO TX rain event they say.
As for the Florida View, I don't subscribe to that view, I'm interested anytime anyone might be in the path of a storm.
Its dry here as well we are on the verge of issueing burn bans so this will help
If it was near the East coast of Fla..wed be Hearing the CAT-5 call..fo sho..LOL...We need the rain..Specially the Sugar CAne Growers.

Get it right..its a CAT-5 headed for Tampa:p:)
Eagles ..breast & legs with Mesquite chips & KC Masterpiece today.LMAO!

Hmmm... maybe we should wait and see what the NHC says about this before making any conclusions about what it might do...
mornin everybody....

looks like 92L is a bull in a china shop..... no place to go!

still waiting for the first good visible shot!

lets see, Dr. Masters and Dr. Lyons says La., and ST says Florida! who should I beleive??

i figured ST would be presicting a cat3 for La.! LOL
4 hrs 10 min..to Kickoff....
Doing the same thing Pat cept I use Tonys sprinkle on the bird and call it "island chicken" lol
Yeah..we wait...LOL..I have eyes and many mo links to see the Situ in October...throw the book out the window..too many variables..
Believe your eyes and the trends..youll do fine.
Zuchinni Squash cut lenghtwise with olive oil & Tonys..great grilled Invest..Sand..and EZ to Turn with the tongs.
THE Situ now..Link
good luck to the Saints.... i hope they go undefeated until the panthers can beat them AGAIN! LOL
Well the webbers be cooking today.lol
Quikscat pass due in 1 hour..
Thel, them Saints gonna get them cats by the tail next time.lol
JAkes a traitor..LOL...Come on down ,well be here..still.Hell & High water cant scare us,No lil cat will..we aint Skeered..LOL!
The deuce going panther huntin.lol
Like the ol Lady says..When ya gotta go..go to Joe!..(Horn)
I still wear mu #7 jearsey I suppose I should update.lol
I can't seem to open NHC site, anyone else having this problem?
HH plan Linkof the Day...
From back in the days when the foot was the winner.lol
NHC server Busy..keep trying..
NHC page..Link
You Americans..U so rude..I kidnap Madonna and Hold for ransom till u stop this crazy stuff.and leave me arone...Link
Thanks Pat just got it. By the way was perfect in my football pool last week, but this week I'm only one who took Saints over eagles-should I be concerned, lol
CBS is covering global warming right now. What would you have a car or a cleaner environment.?
Come see my little site still working on it please give me some hints www.weatherimages.0catch.com
.It so Hotsu in Nawlins.!Link.I leave soon go bak with mo mentos & Diet coke for nother test bomb..You too crazee here..me no lie...
Not with the Crowd ..and the team is Pumped for the Eagles..Even saw some Eagles fans doing Clean-up in City on news last night.Thats nice of them.
298. KRL
I wouldn't discount 92L so fast. You don't need a big Cat to cause lots of damage. Water is the real killer and property destroyer in storms, not just winds, and this storm could pack loads of rain by the time it reaches NO or the Florida panhandle.
Helo preferred..but car does nicely.
I love Al Gore. Sting sucks.
Late October Cat-1 Punch..was wet one .Link
That was rather random...
KRL, I agree its stated in a previous post
Juans Butterfly GOM double loop...Link
Hope you all have a nice day. Wish some of the 92 would get into middle america. I love crazy Joe Henderson.
Juans floodedLafitte and HAd caskets popping outta tombs and Floating downstream..er Bayou...
Pat, we need to eat a lot of vitamin c with the flip flop of temps that are going to occur.lol
Ive got the scratchy throat thing now...Yuck
New model runs are in..look up

still looks a bit "elongated" to me..... no matter, definately a "significant" rain event for somebody!

Hope your team wins today.... unless of course your team is the ravens..... in that case, stand by to be flattened! LOL

Here it is ..LOL..Link
Morning all . . .

Finally have a free moment to look in on what's shakin' in the blog. . . .

This comment by hurricane23 caught my eye:

2005 saw nearly perfect atmospheric conditions for development all season long.Over all we are in an active hurricane cycle and it does not mean every season is going to be super active.2006 has proven that we can still have slow seasons even if we are in an active period.Its a way mother nature balances things out.

I don't know that we can actually truly characterize 2006 as a slow season. Despite the fact that no major hurricanes affected the Caribbean or American mainland, the season still spun up some pretty good storms. The majority of the stronger systems affected land in some way, even if it was only after their truly "tropical" life was over. When we consider the constantly adverse conditions that existed in the Atlantic basin all season, it is amazing that we still have to designate 2006 as an average to slightly above-average year in terms of storm formation. And this is keeping in mind that there are still technically 6 weeks left in the season. I think the 2006 season is in reality a very good indicator that we are still embedded in the active period.

Look at it another way: if atmospheric conditions had continued to follow the 2005 pattern, isn't it possible that we would have seen another record-breaking year in 2006? The waves coming off Africa persisted, sometimes when we expected them to have died off three or four times. Storms built up and continued despite sometimes adverse shear conditions. SAL dust inhibited formation - but systems persisted. If the ATL was set up the way it was last year, we would have had a serious train of 'canes across the basin impacting us throughout the region.

My point: The activity was there; thank goodness for shear. But 2006 was not a "slow" year.
Its still nicely tucked near the Coast..with the T-storms N..& east ..but holding firm..
Normal year is a relative term..but 06 was more Normal than most would care to believe..
Winds up at the Buoy this Hour..Link
The trend is up..here..Link
Either a Squall or denotes pressure drop..Link

I also note that Juan formed later in the season.

I wonder how much the convection in the Gulf is being affected by that ULL system that is making its way across the SW US? I have to admit I found this ULL over land to be an interesting phenomenon. Don't know why, but for some reason I have been thinking of them this season as "creatures of the sea" . . . .
probably a squall
Thats the influence to pull this North...
Agree looks like a squall event
However, I agree that the cane center and NWS did see something amazing coming, just, in the wrong ocean!
Oh, and hey, BAHA and all syuns peoples
Here the Goes-LinkWest WV,Global..that shows the ULL pulling the Envelope North..
An interesting fact about super typhoon Saomai(from Wikipedia):

The name "Saomai" was submitted by Vietnam, and is from the Vietnamese word for "morning star" (sao Mai), a reference to the planet Venus.[4]

So this was really "Hurricane Venus" LOL.
The Other view..Link
The Navy Page.Link...
Disregard 90L...
Quickscat now imaging 92L..data in 10...
Ouickscat page...Link

What's also very interesting to watch with that WV loop is the next low pressure system rolling down the W Canadian coast and towards Washington State . . .

Looks like the ULL is also ensuring the easterly movement, rather than letting the GOM blob move north into central / western TX . . .

Look at the Models..the influence and steering is North..then NNE..
SHIPS intensity takes it to 59mph..
good morning. here is a good loop of 92L.
my bad, here it is!lol
Pat whats your summation of were the heaviest wind area will be.
Looks like all convection south and west is becoming
Brownsville radar...Link
Looks like Terrebone Bay..east to Mouth of River..but need more Quickscat data..now.
Well lets see what the sat has to say.
I think the North side of this one will be area of Highest easterly winds with the High to the North..Gradient forced east winds..Therefore the 2 ft tides..
the doc. did say we would at least have 1 more strong day of shear; which would possibly continue to relocate the center of circ. and move the strongest winds continually around?
Waiting on the Buoy to Update ,,the Quickscat data/..
Best to go with the observed trends than to rely on speech..LOL
In the latest Vis..the shear has really relaxed..note the Tstorms height..near the coastal Texas Link
they are fairly tall, kinda like the ones in the middle of 92L

347. ryang
can anyone here come over to my blog an discuss 92L with me
ryang..I see no blog for You..None..
You need to post an entry.To get a comments section..
Was just anticipating but hesitating on the Joyce (my wife's name) t.s. Have seen the woman raise enough CANE Without weather char.
lol lol
lol. "see" ya'll later
yeah I gotta work that 8pm-8am again 2night. Take care of the gulf people Thanks
Pat just fired off the grill gonna get that yardbird going in just a bit.lol
... is there a possibility for Norman to make across to the GOM?

Mel, one at a time lol me mind works in simple ways.
any chance of 92 L giving us rain here in fla panhandle??
Stormhank, You will get some rain this week.
LOL sorry
any guesses on possible track or strength of this system yet?
363. ryang
patrap do you see a entry now
At best quesses right now.lol
Thing is, shear has been in effect all season. Stranger things have happened in the last few months.

OTOH, w / 15kts shear we could see a TS . . .


Supposed to rain tommorrow here Hank.
hey 92l isnt under alot of shear and it should stay that way for a couple of days so I give a 65% chance of devolopig into a 50 MPH tropical storm and with ALOT of rain. Gotta go to a BBQ at 12.:)
368. ryang
who can come to me blog now
may move n then ne i herd not sure
Isee it now ryang
I'm really not expecting this to become a tropical storm
ryang you got a message!!
that is what the Doctor said, no chance
when does dr.Jeff update? the suspence is killing me.lol
Da buoy..earlier..Link
376. IKE
The DR. also said this..", but if it does, it would likely not have time to grow to more than a 50-mph storm.".......

So it does have a chance according to him.
377. ryang
stormchaser what message
Circulation is noted from this BOC buoy winds..tooLink
Posted by: JeffMasters, 10:07 PM EDT on October 14, 2006

A non-tropical low pressure area has developed in the Gulf of Mexico just off the coast of Mexico, about 300 miles south of Brownsville, Texas. This disturbance has been designated "92L" by NHC this evening, and does have a small chance of developing into a tropical storm....

That was over 12 hours ago... he may be saying something different today.
380. ryang
suenommi he said he would update around 12.00 which is around noon
Heres the GFSx..Link
sorry check your blog now ryang
stormchasher, are you the person who visited West Palm?? if so did you enjoy it??
Gom ..fun facts..Link
The disturbance is under about 15 knots of shear this evening, which is low enough to allow development into a tropical storm. However, the storm is moving towards an area of much higher shear (40 knots!), and this higher shear may cause significant trouble for the disturbance. Shear is forecast to drop significantly in the Gulf beginning Monday, so there may be a window of opportunity that day for 92L to grow into a tropical storm. I'm really not expecting this to become a tropical storm, but if it does, it would likely not have time to grow to more than a 50-mph [tropical] storm.
Yeah WPB it was very relaxing to get away from NYC . but come december ill be back in WPB PS thanks for asking :)
The Doc has had the Quikscat data now for a lil while.Id expect hes crunching the numbers and getting the situ in hand before he writes it up..
Thats some mighty fine proofreading,,,,
389. ryang
stormchaser check your mail
Bye guys I have to get ready for a big BBQ:)
stormchasher, be carefull around Jan and Feb we can get in to the 30's!
Nelly, I think I speak for most here. KEEP YOUR POLITICS OUT!
THe newest Buoy data..Link
In that water I think anything could happen
Nelly....check your mail
Dewpoint Juicy...Link
The ssts are 3.5 over 80F....Link
ewww, quickscat showed a brown color thingy, could it be...........a 35kt wind vector??????
Pat the pressure did not get to low but it shows circulation at that bouy
402. IKE
31 knot wind gust at the BOC buoy.
Troll invest..Link
Is the gulf system affecting oil prices?will it?
BOC buoy..sw of the system..Link
The oil industry aint worried yet, NO evacs ordered as far as I can tell
407. IKE
Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on October 15, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Showers and thunderstorms over portions of the western Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a broad low pressure area centered along
the coast of Mexico just north of Tampico. Due to strong
upper-level winds and proximity to land...tropical cyclone
development does not appear likely as the system moves northward at
about 10 mph. However...the combination of this low and a high
pressure system over the eastern United States could produce gusty
winds and heavy rains over portions of northeastern Mexico and
southern Texas during the next day or two.

Pat, Good advice. However, will keep the shovel nearby.
It WAS peaceful in here for a while.
Couldn't last forever.....sigh...
Good neverfollow..LOL
411. ryang
dr.m is taking long to blog
Troll invest terror tool..Link
.Well..do ya ?..Punk!..LOL!
414. ryang
good job IKE

getting kind of cold in the GOM
all we need is ron with the moron model
i was kind of hopeing the dr. would bring this pic back Link
You can pick your friends at work and you can take a poo at work... But you can't chase your friends around at work with a piece of poo...
420. IKE
Marine weather from Mobile, AL as of 10 am this morning.."Marine...significant changes needed on the marine update this
morning. Have increased wind speeds in all zones west/ small craft
conditions now from 0 to 60 nm. Currently have scec in Mobile Bay
and expect that to be upgraded this afternoon. Wind speeds will
increase through tonight and on Monday to 25 to 30 knots with gusts
to gale force possible.
Currently not anticipating a Gale
Warning...but conditions will have to be monitored. Seas will range
from 7 to 11 across the coastal waters by late tonight and on Monday.

Whats spookie is that I posted this pic on my blog a few hours b-4 the Docs..LOL!Link
They look like Kin...too
Winds increasing along the coastal Louisiana waters as the first gush of moisture arrives..Link
one day I was checking Key Wests observations, the guy wrote down it was snowing, it was 78*, i think they need new help
Death to all Gulf of Mexico blobs!
Heres the area coming ashore first.Its alil drier inland here..but getting juicer by the minute.The event begins .Link
Poor Buffalo area,

All that snow and no snowmen pics to show for it . . .


BTW, the local weatherman last night said they expect to see the cold fronts dropping through here every 3-4 days now, bringing progressively cooler temps every time. Doesn't sound like they expect more in the way of tropical development this year either . . .

Not that the cool off is actually being FELT, since daytime temps are still in the upper 80s here. Even at night it's still only dipping to lower 70s. The difference is in the humidity and the increased winds (due to High pressure over eastern US right now and cold front passing through today).

Anyway, we could use some cooler air here . . .
Green Canyon ,GOM...Link
rain rain rain thats all twc sayin every update. Wheres the doc! somebody get me a doctor!
Baha, same here is South Florida
it's going up to 17C by Wednesday up here
Yeah, WPB, in the Summer u get our weather; in the winter, we get yours . . . LOL

The warm front backing up ahead of the system shows up well on the Regional longe-range.Link
Seems like it has been either famine or flood in TX all year. When there IS any rain, it's like torrents all at once.
seems like this October may be a warm one in South Florida
436. ryang
12.00 gone and he still has not updated
437. IKE
New blog up...nothing new.
438. ryang
wpbhurricane05 do you live in florida
wpbhurricane05 do you live in florida

Didn't check to see if if a Hurricane in the Atlantic basin crossed into the Eastern Pacific and regained Hurricane status.

Probably several examples of an Atlantic Basin Hurricane crossing over but not ever achieving Hurricane status

From the NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center

5. What happens to the name of the tropical cyclone if it moves from the Atlantic regions to the Northeast Pacific, or vice versa ?

The rule used to be that if the tropical storm or hurricane moved into a different basin it was renamed to whatever name was next on the list for the area. This last occurred in July 1996 when Atlantic basin Hurricane Cesar moved across Central America and was renamed Northeast Pacific basin Hurricane Douglas. The last time that a Northeast Pacific system moved into the Atlantic basin was in June 1989 when Cosme became Allison.

These rules have now changed and if the system remains a tropical cyclone as it moves across Central America it will keep the original name. Only if the tropical cyclone dissipates with just a tropical disturbance remaining, will the National Hurricane Center give the system a new name assuming it becomes a tropical cyclone once again.

It is important that all elderly relatives are able to keep in contact where ever they are, especially if they are isolated. a big button communication device is essential