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Gulf of Mexico disturbance 90L slowly getting organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:05 PM GMT on October 02, 2007

Heavy thunderstorms are on the increase over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, several hundred miles west of Key West, in association with an upper-level low pressure system that is now generating an area of low pressure at the surface. This system is being referred to as "Invest 90L" by NHC. The buoy 262 nm south of Panama City, FL had winds of 36 mph gusting to 45 mph this morning, and there were ship reports this morning of winds of 25-33 knots (29-38 mph) in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a large area of 30-35 mph winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite loops show a steady increase in heavy thunderstorm activity, but the activity is not well-organized at present.

A surface area of low pressure was over the western Bahamas last night, several hundred miles east of the Gulf of Mexico upper level low. This Bahamas surface low was the initial suspect area we were watching (labeled "Invest 90L" by NHC). This surface low moved westward overnight, and is now underneath the upper low. This is a situation very much like we saw with Tropical Depression Ten last month, which also formed from an upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico. Like TD 10, 90L will probably start off as a subtropical depression. There will be a warm core to the storm at the surface, but the upper low has a cold core aloft. This will make the storm subtropical in nature--a system has to have a warm core all the way from the surface to the upper atmosphere to be truly tropical. 90L will gradually warm up its entire core and become tropical, but this will probably take two days. It took two days for TD 10 to become fully tropical, and it ran out of time to intensify when it moved ashore into the Florida Panhandle as a tropical depression. Until a subtropical system establishes a fully warm core, it cannot undergo rapid intensification. With a landfall expected Thursday or Friday in Louisiana or Texas, this does not give 90L much time to strengthen. There is plenty of warm water in the Gulf of Mexico to aid intensification, but hampering intensification will be dry, continental air from North America that is being pulled southward over the Gulf of Mexico by the counter-clockwise circulation around the upper low. This dry air is readily apparent on water vapor satellite loops (the brown colors). The most likely scenario is that 90L will make landfall as a tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for today has been canceled, since 90L is not organized enough to warrant a flight. The mission has been rescheduled for Wednesday afternoon.

I'll have an update by 4 pm EDT this afternoon, and post my first half of October outlook for hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks...I'm 49...that should explain it! LOL.


47 here...I guess that does explain it! I didn't think I'd be able to get Grace Slick on here...
Houston, I appologize for the post directed at you then, should have pointed my mouse in another direction. Little one is sick, puter running slow, high winds here, already knocked down cable lines across the street, did NOT see that you had copied from someone else... my sincerest appologies to you.
txalwaysprepared...I love your avatar!!!
NEXRAD Radar
Tampa Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI Gust to 40 knts noted in there

Link
Thanks Brazos. You are correct. I have family planning a fishing trip to gulf coast, TX. I am cooking chili for 40 folks in East TX. Maybe it will wait til after the weekend?

Does the blog look stretched to yall?
507. 0741
did storm W do his reoprt today?
484. IKE 5:49 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
NEwxguy 12:47 PM CDT on October 02, 2007
Ike,good taste in music

Thanks...I'm 49...that should explain it! LOL.


Yep figured that,I'm 49,that was my favourite time for music
12Z GFDL keeps this a TS
LOL...now if someone said NE Texas "coast" that'd be different. You could assume they were referring to the Upper Texas Coast.
TY zoom, it is because nothing in life is right side up, especially the weather! Easier to read it sometimes if you turn it upside down.
Atlantic WV ZOOM to Se La.
Dry Air SHaded

Link
Tigerrific....

No problem..it happens by the way love your pic. Used to have a rat terrier named tigger..got his name from your pic charachter.
Yep figured that,I'm 49,that was my favourite time for music

Don;t I wish, I"m actually 59
looks like SC is gonna get squished! dry air over us now, wet to the east, wet to the west and both of them moving toward each other...what the heck will this cause?


Any reason why the flights were canceled? Could that mean it's not as serious as NHC thought originally?
Tornadofan, with the exception of txalwaysprepared, you have the best avatar on here
"I put my dog as a pic which isn't weather related,so confused about why they would refuse other pics"
They didn't refuse my cat either. Maybe b/c it on W.U.G's blog. It's really helpful when your cat posts for you. She misspells a word or two though.
Responce 508:

I dont think it is repelling the dry air. I think it is still sneaking in through the lower levels. It does show interestiingly the ULL and the LLC.
ty houston, Tigger is my hero, you know, he always bounces back, no matter what...real life hero would have to be...my mom tho
offstage, the system is somewhat disorganized and I think, yes, they down-graded the threat...
afternoon folks
Yes 0741 he did.
Ok quick question, now that I have firefox whenever I click on a link it will not let me go back to the blog using the back button, it makes me start over, anyone have any suggestions.
Patrap, thanks for the link. I still like the look of that split. Could the atl side of it curl back to the carib and start something. One of your pics looks like it is trying to do that. But then I know next to nothing.
wheres extreme?
Ike, click your profile pic again...fill out all the info, be SURE to click the box at the bottom of the form...it should show up
aubie - thanks. Figured it was appropriate with all the baby/weather posts from me :)
brazo, open a second link, then you dont have to click back, just switch between the two tabs
I believe the system to watch for now is the Area in the Se GOm. Thats where the central convective is located. But effects can be felt far away from the CoC of these transitioning systems. As we saw in Fla from TD-10.Eustic,Fla. was wacked pretty hard from a Tornado in a Feeder BAnd.
testing
aubie - thanks. Figured it was appropriate with all the baby/weather posts from me :)


I think it's beautiful!!!!
House, it appears that the internal messaging service is down
strange...watching story of Roxanne on twc, DLB269 is getting tormented!
still seeing a faint swirl in that mess over the bahamas
Wow that GFDL puts that 90 L right on top of Houston... Lets hope Future Noel stays a depression not anything else, this weather here in Houston has been perfect!! Wings over Houston is coming this weekend too!!! :(
Patrap that feeder band seems more like a warm front.(going back 2 lurking)
Wow that GFDL puts that 90 L right on top of Houston... Lets hope Future Noel stays a depression not anything else, this weather here in Houston has been perfect!! Wings over Houston is coming this weekend too!!! :(


Hmmm...maybe not?
What about the oil rigs in the gulf. Wasn't there someone on the blog who had a husband on a rig and sent out copies of forecasts? I would think if 90L develops as quickly as it could, they would start monitoring and possibly pulling those folks.
Ignoring the GFDL -- liking all the other models better. If I ignore the GFDL it will go away, right? ;)
Test...
has the GFDL..really been all that accurate this year?..seems like during TD10 it had a hard time with it...this is a similar situation right?
FZNT24 KNHC 021508
OFFNT4
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

GMZ084-022130-
MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
1030 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

THIS AFTERNOON
N OF 24N NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
S OF 24N N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS N OF
23N.

TONIGHT
N OF 24N NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT BECOME E 15 KT
LATE. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT...SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 7 FT. S OF 24N NW WINDS
15 KT SHIFT SW LATE. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL SUBSIDE TO 5 TO
6 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS NEAR LOW.
Patrap that feeder band seems more like a warm front.(going back 2 lurking)

Good observation. Basically it is, or techinically its a trough axis. Winds will shift to the SE behind it.

Pablo

I agree. Although, if it wern't for the airshow, I'd like to see some rain in Htown. Got spoiled by all the rain earlier this year. Didn't even have to water grass.
has the GFDL..really been all that accurate this year?..seems like during TD10 it had a hard time with it...this is a similar situation right?


Actually, the GFDL has been fairly close, this year and historically
Yep figured that,I'm 49,that was my favourite time for music

Don;t I wish, I"m actually 59


Hey guys, if you were 63 like me you coulda made the run form Elvis and Jerry Lee thru Goldfrapp and enjoyed them when they were new. lol
So this system will move into Texas or Louisianna by Thursday of this week correct gentlemen?
The Low Pressure came close to here at Buoy 42003 maybe.. or is just moving away now.
Heres the Graph. Link


Station 42003 - E GULF 262 nm South of Panama City, FL

Link
More like 84-96 hours...Friday/Saturday? At least from the current modeling, Pablo
Pablo...

Nobody quite knows yet. At least the "gentlemen". But I'm sure a "lady" on this blog might know. LOL
LOL houston!
Someone in here was looking at that ealier, StormW...moving WNW?
offstagerumbling 6:00 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Any reason why the flights were canceled? Could that mean it's not as serious as NHC thought originally?


Well, to quote Dr. Masters: The Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for today has been canceled, since 90L is not organized enough to warrant a flight.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION


Deep/possibly subtropical or tropical low moving through the gulf of mexico... The guidance has been consistent on its various solutions over its past 2 to 3 days of runs...with a long term trend towards weakening seen on the nam and canadian. Enough of a break in the mid-level ridge is expected to exist along the central to western us gulf coast to expect this system to move northwest through the central gulf of mexico. This idea fits the gfs solution best which is in the middle of the 09z combined sref member spread...which agrees fairly well with the noon medium range conference call with nhc. Its central pressure should be closest...if not deeper than...the nam considering its current central pressure and its expected continued strengthening over the next 2-3 days. See the latest information from tpc concerning this feature.
Possible low near the bahamas wednesday into friday... Possible low in the northwest caribbean friday morning... The gfs/canadian are in agreement that a new low...similar in origin to the low moving through the eastern gulf of mexico at this time as well as tropical depression 10 in late september...is expected to form near the bahamas by friday morning. The nam has a weak system that moves northwest towards the southeast us coast...but is trending slower...and a second cyclone forming in the northwest caribbean sea. The ecmwf has no system whatsoever. Since the meridional ridge across the western atlantic late wednesday is expected to flatten by friday...a closed cyclone under its base is expected. Adding to the probability of this cyclones formation are teleconnections...which show a 225-250 meter positive anomaly near 45n 75w...which would favor a progressive upper cyclone about 20 degrees to its south near the 25th parallel. Will favor a weakened version of the gfs/canadian per the noon medium range conference call with nhc.
I am not seeing any LLC. So is it inside the Thunserstorm Convective area or its it just in the upper level's.
The latest GFDL keeps 90L over the open waters of the GOM for almost 4 days before making landfall around Houston...yikes
NOLAinNC 6:19 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
LOL houston!



Yep, it's all fun and games until the flying monkeys attack!
Educate me

I was reading the noaa update. When do winds become gale force.
Hey im having trouble posting a pic on my avatar thingie... Can anyone help out a fellow friend in need... Thanks...
wow, wind is really blowing in charleston, went out to start the burn barrel, think I better wait
Roof closed this weekend at Reliant when Texans dine on Dolphins Sunday! Unless a cat 1 should not have impact on Houston NFL.
pablo, click the pic, fill out the form, and BE SURE to click the little check box at the bottom
hey there storm, what up?
Yep, Storm...small, compact circulation; below 10N, so why is the circulation so pronounced?
ok.. so here's the answer on timing and landfall.

I am scheduled to be induced on Friday. Have to be there at 4am. So guessing the kid will be here by lunch. So my guess is TS, Friday, Galveston, noon LOL

that's my luck!
Wow, look at water vapor you can see the low easy now........wowLink
test
Flood - PINK flying monkeys, no less.
578. CJ5
Melissa has built some convection today and continues to spin W.
NEXRAD Radar
Tampa Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI 40 Frame Loop


Link
Hey StormW, what are your current thoughts on 90L as far as landfall?
566. StormW 1:21 PM CDT on October 02, 2007
Someone in here was looking at that ealier, StormW...moving WNW?

That's the one!


Okay, what are ya'll looking at? Pretty please?

ty JP, notice the upside down? That is cuz nothing in weather is right side up, turn the map around and it will make sense
NOLAinNC 6:25 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Flood - PINK flying monkeys, no less.



LOL...we do go all out at Mardi Gras, eh cher?
I said earlier that i thought it would travel North first......lol
568. tiggeriffic 6:22 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
wow, wind is really blowing in charleston, went out to start the burn barrel, think I better wait

sorry about the dumb question,but what is a burn barrel?
HOG lol that would be nice at this point.. but I don't think a TS would do it.
wind is howling pretty good on the panhandle
I see it stormW.. it is quite small so it will be easy to kick up a Low pressure area. Nice CDO over it for the lat 6 hours. 850 mb Vorticity map is at 30. The wind shear in that area is about 5kt or below. Gonna have to watch it.

BTW I Love the new Editing drop down menu!
James Gandolfini "Tony" Bacchus 07

"How ya Doing?"


Link

txalwaysprepared 6:25 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
ok.. so here's the answer on timing and landfall.

I am scheduled to be induced on Friday. Have to be there at 4am. So guessing the kid will be here by lunch. So my guess is TS, Friday, Galveston, noon LOL


Well, since Aubie has been complimenting you on the avatar, I've been trying to figure out what it is. Your post gives a hint: would that be an ultrasound of your child?

Congrats! Hopefully the GOM blob doesn't create any difficulties.

Patrap
Is that COC moving North in WV.
Hey bellstar...fellow barrel racers here...windy to ride lately!
a burn barrel is a 55 gallon steel drum that you burn trash, leaves, brances, etc in...keeps down on what you throw away... then you use the ashes in the garden to enrich the soil
thank you tigger,wasn't sure,
up here in massachusetts they won't let you light a match outside never mind burn trash or leaves.
Well this would be my first time going to Wings over Houston, so it better not rain!!!
GOM WV Loop Big Pic

Link
589. NEwxguy 1:28 PM CDT on October 02, 2007
568. tiggeriffic 6:22 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
wow, wind is really blowing in charleston, went out to start the burn barrel, think I better wait

sorry about the dumb question,but what is a burn barrel?

That's funny...never thought other states might not have burn barrels..lol
bellestarr 6:26 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
566. StormW 1:21 PM CDT on October 02, 2007
Someone in here was looking at that ealier, StormW...moving WNW?

That's the one!

Okay, what are ya'll looking at? Pretty please?


Belle, about 110 miles SSE of the Antilles, around 8N, is what appeasrs to be a very small but very easy to see cyclonic circulation...go here:
Atlantic Wide View and select LatOn...look in the lower right hand corner of the frame...it's plainly visible on the visual loop...probably nothing, but ordinarliy south of 10N you don't see that sort of circulation...it's a tight, fast swirl, spinning counter-clockwise, indicative of a cyclone, just in a strange place is all
NE, cant do it in the city, I live in the county...as long as it is contained, like in a barrel, it is ok as long as you have a hose on and ready (if they happen by)
Is turn and burn on?
597. blueranch 1:31 PM CDT on October 02, 2007
Hey bellstar...fellow barrel racers here...windy to ride lately!


I'm stuck in Minnesota having to work...had to leave my horses behind in Texas. My hiney is sure itching for the saddle! lol
Wow, did JM re-decorate or what?
Patrap
Do you agree the LLC is moving North in WV, or am i wrong..
Nope,not up here,they did when I was a kid,then suddenly everybody was worried about pollution going into the air.
Thanks StormW and Floodman!
The radar shows the surface motion best I think.

Link
603. Floodman 2:34 PM AST on October 02, 2007

Was that not Melissa, I've been seeing it since they said she was a gonner.
Got to get back to work before i get caught! bbl to catch up on latest
NOLAinNC 6:30 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Well, Flood, when the going gets tough (i.e The Saints), the tough get dressed up and pah-rade through the streets. Mardi Gras is only 3 months and 3 days away!!


You bet: "If it ain't goin' good f'ya, tree or two drinks will make it bettah...don't worry ya can't finish it here...have a geaux cup!"

Nice costume, by the way, NolanNC
It appears to me the surface low is about 80 miles due west of Naples.
Pablo..

I don't think you have anything to worry about.
Nothing scientific to base that on. Just seems like everytime one of these comes from florida it goes noth to central GOM coast.
GOM IR shows the Blowup of new convection on the east side of the System,..as seen on the radar

Link
Dallas - Yep! It's his face :)

OK, got one kid to sleep... now going to try the second one... so mommy and third kid can nap, too. Yes, I am the crazy mom of soon-to-be 3 boys. I guess that should have been my handle. LOL

Keep an eye on 90L for me... I'm sure I'll come back in a couple hours with LOTS of stupid questions!
Nashda, Melissa was considerably north of this one...this one is brand new; a late arrival to the party off the African coast...
Anybody know the last few positions of 90L? There hasta be at least two at 06GMT and 18GMT which are missing from the Wunderground Invest90 Coordinates.
Gfdl and Nogaps has 90l coming right up houston and galveston Bay
yay new blog! first time on today. it looks alot better
Just looked at all bouy wind directions and no doubt the surface low is SW of Naples between NPSF1 and Bouy 42023.
COC of 90l looks to be drifting north. Does anybody else se that on WVL?
txalwaysprepared 6:40 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Dallas - Yep! It's his face :)


That's wonderful!!!

You will be in my prayers for an easy, uneventful, and joy-filled delivery on Friday.
Pablo, I had that same model Saleen. I let my cat do a hole shot with it at Moroso and she put it in the wall. I was heartbroken. Now she only drives the buick.
Initial conditions for 18Z model runs on 90L

LATCUR = 24.3N LONCUR = 84.0W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 24.6N LONM12 = 81.0W DIRM12 = 258DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 25.2N LONM24 = 78.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Link
NE, i only burn tree and tree related things,(paper, cardboard, leaves). City burns everything in incinerators...at least mine is not caustic and is useful when i am done. I use it in the soil for growth of plants which means i am not using as many man made chemicals...better for the environment all the way around, mine wont contanimate the drinking water...and since we are at watertable level...I take this seriously...
test
Thanks Flood. Hopefully I'll make it to the Quarters for the big day this year. I am living in exile, but I've got a year's supply of Camillia beans in the pantry and a couple of bottles of Pimm's in the cabinet!
619. Floodman 2:41 PM AST on October 02, 2007
Nashda, Melissa was considerably north of this one...this one is brand new; a late arrival to the party off the African coast...


I think it's for the fish, though.
What was that that came through here in Orlando last night? We got 3.5" of rain and winds must have been gusting to near tropical storm force in each squall that came through. Did anything semi-organized move across Florida this morning? Anyone else see the storms?
Hm...fairly slow today in the tropics.
Blob hype !
90L seems to be moving pretty fast... I think it will land before saturday unless it is in south texas....
Pablo, I had that same model Saleen. I let my cat do a hole shot with it at Moroso and she put it in the wall. I was heartbroken. Now she only drives the buick.

That sucks!
618. txalwaysprepared 6:40 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Dallas - Yep! It's his face :)

OK, got one kid to sleep... now going to try the second one... so mommy and third kid can nap, too. Yes, I am the crazy mom of soon-to-be 3 boys. I guess that should have been my handle. LOL

Keep an eye on 90L for me... I'm sure I'll come back in a couple hours with LOTS of stupid questions!

I feel your pain!!..I've got 3 boys!!!
HurrMichaelOrl.....it poured all night in St. Lucie County (Fort Pierce). I haven't seen how much rain we got in inches but our swales were full of water this morning. The winds were pretty gusty but I don't think they were much more than 15-20mph last night. Then again, we're 100 south of you.
Nashda 6:47 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
619. Floodman 2:41 PM AST on October 02, 2007
Nashda, Melissa was considerably north of this one...this one is brand new; a late arrival to the party off the African coast...

I think it's for the fish, though.


Sorry, Nashda, I think I lost a post:

I think it's too early to make any call on this one, other than "whoaa, look at that weird spin!"...I really don't see anything in the near term that would turn this one though; unless I'm reading the forecasts wrong (a distinct possibility) LOL
nobody talking tropics hmmm must be getting close to the end of season. 90L nothing but a rain maker (thank goodness).
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND A SURFACE LOW CENTERED ABOUT 100
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.


i think this is now a TD but i think the nhc is waiting to the HH to get in there i think this could be come a STS or TS right a way and skip overe TD or STD

and yes i no the HH are going out wed so this could be come a STS by time the HH gets out there
NolainNC, hang in there...
a burn barrel is generally a 55 gallon drum in which paper trash is burned
Taz just curious..(not tryin to be a smarty pants) but if it is lookin so good why did they cancel todays recon flight?
647. cheeweez 7:00 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
TAZ.....Do you have a prediction on 90l? Intensity and Landfall??


i say any where from 45kt to 50kt storm at land fall at most well see from this where and when oh nos
Well it looks like 90L is slowly getting together....not rapidly, but slowly....if the trend continues a STS/TS possible tomorrow
649. aubiesgirl 7:00 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Taz just curious..(not tryin to be a smarty pants) but if it is lookin so good why did they cancel todays recon flight?


not sure
Anyone notice the upper level circulation just NW of Hispanola?
636. cheeweez 6:51 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Patrap...........Do you have a prediction on 90L?? Intensity and landfall?


landfall:

texas (sorry)

intensity : cat 1 or 2
Aubie - LOL oh yes! Boys! My goodness. Second one is about asleep... so I think I am good to go!!

And I'm going to ignore the wareagle.... Husband is LSU obsessed ;)

bbl... have a good afternoon...
rain starting to come onshore in charleston...
any one seen this yet????

Link
They always put that up with an invest Taz...
Taz any chance it amy become a cane?
90L don't look good! at least for now.
Nobody is talking about the area east of florida north of the Bahamas this area looks much better than 90L,maybe a low trying to develop in this area?? any comments about this area??
No way this becomes a cane!!! To much dry air
643. Floodman 2:58 PM AST on October 02, 2007
Let's see what becomes of it.
they dont always put on the formation within 48 hour bubble that map for every invest, only ones that are maybe close to classification
Always a chance.. Dont think it will because it has to change from a cold core system. That takes alot of time then it has to gain strength. Of course it has to do this in 72hrs. It most it will be will be a 60mph TS.
669. PBG00
intensity : cat 1 or 2

I thought the Doc said it wouldn't have enough time to strenthen into much more than a ts
667. extreme236 7:08 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
they dont always put on the formation within 48 hour bubble that map for every invest, only ones that are maybe close to classification

interesting
Hurricane1956

Don't confuse convection with circulation. 90l is the ballgame right now. Area east of Florida worth keeping an eye on though.
ok here it is this will olny be come a 45 to 50kt storm at all winds will not get any higher then that
Im not going to even speculate on the intensity of 90L, as we heard humberto wasnt going to be a cane either, although he was fully tropical....its not even worth speculating at this point, I would guess TS strength
i dont know since humberto, anything can become a hurricane in the bath water of the gulf
we don't even know if it's cold core or warm core right now right?
Taz, are you talking about the spin at 8N 40W?
currently, upper level winds are about 10kts over 90L
the gulf's temps have dropped a bit
I say strong TS or cat 1
well the sfc low I believe is warm core, and the ULL is cold core, so its not really either one right now
669. PBG00 7:08 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
intensity : cat 1 or 2

I thought the Doc said it wouldn't have enough time to strenthen into much more than a ts


but im thinking that 90l (noel) will make landfall further away than what hes says!

(blah i had to retype this quite a few times!)

on another note:



90l looks almost sub tropical!

if the clouds/convection rap around then we wont be in for some luck as noel forms and hits land )-=
That we will, Nashda...again, probably nothing, but the spin at that Lat is troublesome
New Blog by Dr. M
House

I agree. Maybe sub-tropical storm. Maybe 40 knots
Does anyone think this will have time to become a hurricane?
Hello everyone this is my first time actually joining in the discussion. I have been watching this blob, a cold core circulation organize a little bit more each time. However I do not think it will make it past Tropical Storm stength with the dry air it has been pulling in to itself. It will definitely have to close itself around the center of rotation to have a 'cane chance
Evenin' folks