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Gulf distubance, Hawaii and Daniel

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:14 PM GMT on July 25, 2006

An area of low pressure centered near the Mexican coast about 45 miles southwest of the Texas/Mexico border continues to generate intense thunderstorms with strong wind gusts over the western Gulf of Mexico. However, the disturbance has not become any better organized since yesterday, and the winds at the surface have decreased. Winds this morning at buoy 42002, 275 miles south-southeast of Sabine, TX, have only gusted up to 29 mph, compared to the 51 mph gusts measured yesterday. The disturbance shows no signs of a circulation, as one can monitor via Brownsville, TX radar. Wind shear over the disturbance has increased 5 knots since yesterday, and should remain high enough today to prevent development of a tropical depression. By Thursday, wind shear may decline enough to allow a tropical depression to form, if the center is over water. The center is moving slowly northwards. but could re-emerge over water Wednesday or Thursday.


Figure 1. Preliminary model forecast tracks for the area of disturbed weather in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico.

Wave approaching the Lesser Antilles
A large tropical wave with a surface circulation near 14N 51W, 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west at 15 mph. It should reach the Lesser Antilles islands on Thursday, and Bahamas on Saturday. The wave is surrounded by a huge cloud of African dust and dry air, and thunderstorm activity is currently minimal. No development is expected while the wave remains in this dry environment. We'll have to keep an eye on this wave later in the week, when it may encounter a moister environment.

Daniel eyes Hawaii
Tropical Storm Daniel is headed towards Hawaii, with a Friday landfall expected. However, Daniel is a skeleton of its former Category 4 glory, and may only be a tropical depression at landfall. This morning's satellite imagery shows that the cool 24-25 C waters beneath Daniel have robbed the storm of almost all of its intense thunderstorm activity. Daniel appears as just a swirl of low clouds, and will continue to weaken over the next few days as it remains over cool waters. Waters very near Hawaii do warm up to 26 C, so Daniel may be able to make a minor comeback shortly before landfall. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to start flying into the storm Wednesday afternoon, if Daniel still poses a threat.


Figure 2. Current satellite image of Daniel.

It's hot in Death Valley
The low temperature in Death Valley yesterday morning was 100, perfect for the start of the Badwater Ultramarathon. The 135-mile, three-day race across Death Valley to Mt. Whitney is in full swing today. With high temperatures of 123 expected today, I'm sure the competitors will be satisfied that the race will be sufficiently challenging.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Has anyone posted this yet?

000
ABNT20 KNHC 260208
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH TEXAS EXTENDING
FROM NEAR MCALLEN NORTHEASTWARD TO BAFFIN BAY IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
IN SQUALLS... OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THAT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY BE TRYING TO FORM ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR BAFFIN BAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM IF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OR DEVELOPS FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS COASTAL BEND REGION...THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO
SLOWLY INCREASE...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

They are confirming our previous suspicions of it reforming further to the east. Now they're calling it "elongated" as it includes part of the old land circulation and part of the new water circulation. This has definitely been interesting to watch.
Thanks StormThug and JP. Not sure how much I will be able to contribute here but I definitely want to learn some stuff and build up my weather links.
Just wanted to thank everyone for another entertaining and informative evening.

Is 98L gonna be 'the little invest that could'?

"ithinkican, ithinkican..."

Guess we'll all see on the 26th.

Night All.
Hey Silverstripes we are glade you joined our little group... Welcome:0)


Taco:0)
silverstripes i am taz
JP you always seem to say what I'm thinking before I can type it.

You're in orlando too right.
1012. guygee
My last take on the TX system for tonight. What I am seeing is some deep convection on the east side of an elongated low-level center. The low-level center is mostly inland but extends offshore somewhat, but the associated small area of deep convection appears to be moving north and may be starting to rotate around the LLC more onshore in the vicinity of CRP. Most of the remaining convection is due to upper-level diffluence, and the upper-level anticylonic support for the system is being pulled and stretched away to the NE, with associated upper-level moisture apparent in the WV loops being pulled as far away as North Florida at this time.
13 mostly; 9 is my second/non-cable choice.

Man we're in the same neighborhood. I'm on Eastbrook and Howell Branch, just south of casselberry.
Thats so nice. Take a look at the IR before you leave center selected I think. Look at the bizarre convection bands lining up north of it.
Hey Taz and Taco. I figure I will try and hang around at night with the late night Eastern US people and the Westerners. The board seems to thin considerably into the night. The die hards keep plugging away though. I stayed up all night and watched Wilma bomb on these blogs and it was actually pretty cool watching her head to the record with every refresh.
So hey - experts in the background is that line the trough passing through the center looking area??
Evening, everyone. I'm in Houston wondering when the rain is going to stop...I won't even speculate on if this Low will develop into anything. I hope it's not a replay of TS Allison or the big flood we had some weeks back. Anyway, it'll be interesting to watch.
Silver I would love to stay and keep bloging but I have to get up at 5am CST and it is getting late...

Although I think we are looking at our next tropical storm although it will not be much to her but it will bring alot of rain to us and we need it, we are only 21 inches below normal as of right now...


Taco:0)
TD3 blob has stopped moving North. Err, I mean 98L. And it is kicking ever-so-slightly eastward over water... The blob that is, not the L center (which is still lost over land somewhere). We need a surface low, man.
1022. guygee
JFLORIDA - I looked at the link you provided, I think that banding is from the ULH that formed over the system and is getting pulled farther NE away from the LLC. Also, at the edge, there is some stronger shear on the SE side. If you turn on the HDW-High you can see the UL wind directions are diffluent NE of the LLC, and how those bands are rotating more with the stretching ULH and with the bordering shear. Just my take, not "written in stone" ;)
Take care Taco. See ya around.
Good Evening Guys....

Here are my thoughts on what might be setting up with 98L.

The importance of this system has really become the potential of a significant rainfall event for those of us on the Middle/Upper Texas coast....Right now a very weak LLC inland over Texas over the next 24-48 hours could be a major factor as far as the potential for what we sometimes call a noctournal core dump. Such rainfall events are more common at night, because all the convergence is focused on a single area and not driven by daytime heating. That's what happened with Allison in 2001 over NE Houston. During the night, a weak area of convergence inland can concentrate all rainfall in a small area, producing incredible amounts of rain if the low is slow-moving. If this disturbance can develop a better-defined LLC then there may be a greater threat of one of these heavy rainfall events somewhere in east Texas.

NOTE:What has me a little concerned...especially as far as a core rain event for tonight is concerned...is that the area of precip is so well developed during the diurnal min...I can't imagine what it will look like come 4 am when we hit the diurnal max
Especially given the models insistance that some good mid-level vorticity is supposed to set up over the coastal bend/SETX area around sunrise.

These are only possibilities and if it were not to occur, should not be constructed as an actual forecast, just my opinion on the current situation.

Right now guys I would be more concerned about an event like i described above happening, than this system getting a name. Adrian

Thanks guy that will work. The shear is strong to the SE.
Of course JP.....How's youre night been?I just got home i went to the movies with my girl and also form time to time checking on the tropics.
ok Silver you too and for everybody else see ya tomorrow... I will check back at 5am and see what our little storm is doing...



Taco:0)

Nite All
Really?
Let's just say it looks a lot more symmetrical in the last infrared loop. Also, it seems to be pulling in the moisture from the storms off to the east of the center.
OK, I'm taking a break from tropics now...doppler radar is showing tornado vortex heading towards my house over Great Salt Lake. I'm gonna see what is happening then give my final thoughts.
If it keeps hanging out there I think there is a chance it could be pushed off to the east towards FL

geo color from nexSat

I can't find nothing on the mapping mission.
I am really impressed by 98L. Unlike other weak systems, this has continually held onto convection throughout the day (even during the daily diurnal minimum) and it is still going strong. I bet the diurnal maximum tonight will bring this thing over the edge with a strengthened LLC over water.
There seem to be multiple outflow boundaries cruising into the system from the south and finally now, the east.
Guys iam more concerned with the wave approaching the islands then 98L right now.
1040. guygee
jp - Just in case any of my posts were ambigious, it was never my intent to criticize you or anyone else for "speculating" or for this so-called "wishcasting" (which I think barely exists on this blog, only in an occasioanal newbie comment, not on a daily basis). The daily cycle in here of tempers flaring is unfortunate and unproductive, and it sometimes gets to me as well, and I have lost my temper here before, sad to say.

I am somewhat "bearish" on this particular system developing much more, but it is nothing personal.
I'm back...cell has weakened over Great Salt Lake (whew!) but responding to quakeman55: I think that 98L is impressing you by staying together because it really is more than 98L. If NHC would stop chickening out and just fly a recon plane out there they might find that out. It's not like they have much else to do except take care of Emilia advisories. They need to stop using satellite and radar with this system if it is holding together like it is.
About right now I bet the NHC wishes they would have flown a recon in, especially with all the recent rains along parts of the Texas coast!
Well I'm thinking they might really fly a recon out there if it is still together (although it will probably be even better organized) in the morning. Like w/ Beryl, I think that this thing might really improve its overall appearance and I know someone said it before, but we just might have a TD when we wake up. If NHC is concerned about keeping people alerted, they shouldn't hesitate with something like 98L that isn't giving up and producing the rain that it is.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
1047. theBlur
Well, lot's of good comments. . .

Me, I don't think (note that that is think) that this will develop much further than it already has. Given that I live in League City (actually, about 2SM away from the HGX office), I would hope that it doesn't develop much further.

Although, we just had another band go through that dropped a lot of rain. Gusts were not that bad (at least, at my ananometer level which is unfortunatly, only about eleven-feet off surface elevation level with lot's of trees around). Pressure is actually trending slightly up, if you could call the difference between 1012 and 1014 since 1900 local (0000 GMT) "up."

We'll just have to wait until tomorrow to see what this weather does.

Oh, and as to why I don't think it will develop much further? Not enough dry-air above it to release the energy into.
Well, I'm back. I had to get away before I started calling most people on here a bunch of idiots.

The center of the wave over the W Gulf is approaching CRP at this point, and I hate to sound like I'm going against the grain on this one but from what I can tell based on WV, Radar, and IR... it looks like a NW motion has re-commenced. Wrap-around may be clouding my judgement, but if you run the 40-frame loop, you can clearly see it was treking NNE.. but around image 28, it is building toward the NW to say the least and WV confirms this..

I actually think it will 'hug' the coast of TX and stall somewhere around LCH before trying to make a turn back toward the WSW as the impulse over Nebraska advances ahead of it and the high over the Rockies and the developing low over NW MEX pulls it back to the SW. Obviously the moisture will be dispersed and will be a much weaker system by that point so no flash flood threat for TX, however it should provide enough lift for scattered daytime thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday across drought-stricken portions of South Central Texas.
1049. franck
As Jesse Jackson would say, "This storm percolate, but fail to circulate".

Oh that reminds me, did any of you guys see Larry King questioning Jesse Jackson the other night about the middle east situation. King asked him about Syria and Jackson said Syria was okay, but he liked bacon and eggs better.
What...?
Posted By: hurricane23 at 9:25 PM PDT on July 25, 2006.
Guys iam more concerned with the wave approaching the islands then 98L right now

why you say that 23 dos that look more happy to night then it was last night ? well any way any thing new with it
href="http://" target="_blank">www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
Well Mike Naso says that all of the models are pointing to the development of that wave east of the Islands...they take it either towards or into Florida or the Gulf of Mexico...so we'd best keep a close eye on it over the next several days.
I keep thinking its gonna croak like everything else then another part builds. Looking at the die out the south we should soon see.
And one more KEY POINT FOR ALL THE 'FORECASTERS' ON HERE... TRY NOT TO COMPARE ANY SYSTEMS AS ANY EXPERIENCED METEROLOGIST CAN TELL YOU, NO TWO SYSTEMS ARE ALIKE... MUCH LESS SIMILAR!
1057. guygee
jp - I think part of the underlying tension on this blog is due to the increased number of posts. The July 25 2005 blog Blasts of warm air from Franklin and the importance of Gerthad 545 posts on a day when TS Gert died and TS Franklin was strengthening. Today we are at 1000+ posts.

It is only natural that the increased tropical activity over the last few years has gotten more people interested in the tropics, and more people have found this blog to be a valuable resource. I see that as a Good Thing(tm), others may not.

I can't imagine what it will look like come 4 am when we hit the diurnal max

I've been thing this for the last 1 1/2 hours when the convetion started building back so quick after dying down so little today. Judging from what has hit me through the years...those unorganized & many times unnamed systems seem to bring the worst of the training rain. Should be interesting in the morning to say the least. 20% chance TD within 24 hrs.

waves are up You surfers stay away from piers & don't surf alone...

somebody spilled the spagetti model:0
Check out the Floater... keep your eyes on the center of that convection just off the TX coast. Call me crazy, but it almost looks like a due-west motion...
Hey just checked out the AccuWeather Hurricane Center and they provide some pretty good satellite images all around the Atlantic Basin. If you would like to see them click here. If you are unfamiliar w/ this website, and want to change the location, just open the drop down menu "Select another satellite" and choose your area to look at. The "Island East I" provides a good view of the tropical wave heading that way. As expected, "Gulf of Mexico" provides a good view of the 98L system. Good luck and hope you find it useful!
a href="http:/www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goesLink
We need to get cuties like Stephanie Abrams, Sharon Resultan, Hillary Andrews and even Heidi Cullen from TWC to post in here. We'd all have a blast with them!

Oh and of course, the legendary Cantore himself needs to come play too!
post a link to those models quake!
The convection complex that has been hanging around offshore just NE of Brownsville has produced rainfall totals between 11"-13" of rain! Sure hope it doesn't happen in the upper TX coast & SW LA. But it could very well.


Posted By: quakeman55 at 9:42 PM PDT on July 25, 2006.
We need to get cuties like Stephanie Abrams, Sharon Resultan, Hillary Andrews and even Heidi Cullen from TWC to post in here. We'd all have a blast with them!

Oh and of course, the legendary Cantore himself needs to come play too!


where the link so we can give them are link so they can join us i would love to tlak with jim cantore i would have a ball with him fin me the link i can e mmil him weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Not only that but they'd be able to exchange a lot of knowledge and expertise with Dr. Masters. That would be beneficial not only for them and Dr. Masters, but for all of us as well.
But next time a system comes up this way, I'm going on Jim watch.

And of course, Stephanie watch if she's around =] hehehe
23, those rains are 'core' rains and will occur where the center makes landfall tomorrow night... the question is -- where?

Yeah JP, the clouds are certainly expanding toward the west, but the floater that I linked to was the WV. Keep an eye on the center of that mass... it's moving WWD. This, of course, doesn't mean that the center of the disturbance is moving west but it could be getting pulled into the center that was north of McAllen.

I gotta smoke and watch it for a couple of more hours (at least until sat blackout) to tell for sure what's going on. At this point, no one is out of the woods in TX (as I mistakingly eluded to earlier).
1074. guygee
jp - Could be...I asked 03 about that tonight, and he insists predicting intensity is harder than genesis. I'll take his word for it. I predict if/when we get a major hurricane approaching the US this year we will see an explosion of many more posts...talking about models, paths and intensity, about weather features that could affect the former, and about local preparations...many more people will seemingly appear out of the ether...hope the wunderground servers can handle it.
Nasa satellite indicates the system jogging east and north in the last half hour.
Got a good link cirro?
Guys right now The importance of this system has really become the potential of a significant rainfall event for those of us on the Middle/Upper Texas coast....Right now a very weak LLC inland over Texas over the next 24-48 hours could be a major factor as far as the potential for what we sometimes call a noctournal core dump. Such rainfall events are more common at night, because all the convergence is focused on a single area and not driven by daytime heating. That's what happened with Allison in 2001 over NE Houston. During the night, a weak area of convergence inland can concentrate all rainfall in a small area, producing incredible amounts of rain if the low is slow-moving. If this disturbance can develop a better-defined LLC then there may be a greater threat of one of these heavy rainfall events somewhere in east Texas.
A powerful flare up of convection is noted to continue in the last 15 minutes at the NASA satellite. Also, in the last 15 minutes the system seems to have energy moving due north while the remainder moves north and east.
aron set the blog commets back down to 2,000post i made it to 3,333post on one of my blog and that was way to mean so the ? is what if we get a cat 3 or 4 hurricane and this about to make land fall on the gulf and the blog is up to like oh say 1500 and dr M would not be back in tell the next day to give us a update then this blog would be done in tell dr M make a new update
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
There is a buoy basically smack dab in the middle of all this mess. Ob's as of an hour ago have the pressure rising..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42020
Sorry, I tried to paste that NASA link, which is my favorite satellite imagery but forgot how since I haven't been here since last year.
The flare up of convection was noted at 11:45 p.m. Brownsville time on NASA satellite to be continuing SE of the center of possible development.
98L looks good...I'd say 50% for a TD.
Makin' your way in the world today takes everything you've got...

Takin' a break from all you worries, sure would help a lot...

Wouldn't you like to get away...?

SOMETIMES YOU WANNA GO...
Where everybody knows your name..
And they're always glad you came..
You wanna be where you can see
Troubles are all the same..
You wanna be where everybody knows your name.

You wanna go where people know..
People are all the same...
You wanna go where everybody knows your name....

Cheers friends!

(Matt Baker kicks ass!)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006072600&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

00ZCMC

Not much changed, 2 different takes on the area. Have to see what pans out tomorrow.
(Guys, you know, the center of this System's circulation is just about right over us here in Corpus Christi. The rains that are developing just to the north of the city right now are beginning to wrap around here towards the west as the radar imagery is indicating)
With that, have a good night all! Ought to be an interesting day in the tropics tomorrow.
1091. Dan187
observations from a few spots (north to south)
Corpus Christi winds calm pressure 29.84
Sarita -winds calm pressure 29.85
Edinburg Intl Airport- winds south at 6, pressure 29.85
Brownsville- winds south at 9 pressure 29.88
And thaz right Dan187. The wind has basically calmed here.
Yeah aec, center is near/over CRP... Convection will wrap around to the N and NE....

HGX is going to get slammed toward the morning hours..
It is real cloudy currently.
Pressures are up - still its holding out.
1097. guygee
hurricane23 - I wonder if this could be a set-up like Allison, but it seems a lot of the moisture is getting pulled NE with the elongating ULH, and also moisture is getting sheared towards the SW on the edge of the system. Also outflow from Tropical Storm Emilia seems to be coming into play, with some of the outflow actually working toward the north of the TX system now. Add the trough dropping down over the upper midwest and the upper-level high over the four corners area, and how that all comes together over the next day or two is going to be a complicated interaction. I remember watching Allison with those heavy nocturnal dumps over 3-4 days if my memory serves correctly...hopefully this system can work west and bring some beneficial rains to drought-stricken areas, but without the severe flooding...in this respect I agree it is not over yet.
Hey Aec and anyone else who didn't submit their $10, here is a link to the CRP short range 40 image loop... if you want something else.. lemme know

Free Loader loop, click it!!!!!
Link

The link above is the starting point for the animation at close range.
1102. Dan187
anyone feel like explaining how to name a link on here?
1104. Dan187
nvm, I'm going to bed
1105. Dan187
okay, thanks
The last fifteen minutes on the NASA loop indicates more convection well offshore on the strong east side of the system.
1107. guygee
Dan187 - If you are logged in, you will see the link tab at the top of the "post your comments" entry box. Copy the URL you wish to use, highlight the text in your comments you want associated with the link, click on the link tab, then paste the URL in the pop-up.
1108. Dan187
buoy in the bay

just off shore

I think the pressure on the first one might be a bit off, as it says its 7.3 mb Both have north winds right now.
Posted By: wxwatcher at 12:18 AM CDT on July 26, 2006.
Hey Aec and anyone else who didn't submit their $10, here is a link to the CRP short range 40 image loop... if you want something else.. lemme know

Free Loader loop, click it!!!!!



Looks more definitive when you have it in Echo cloud top mode with a little lower speed here
Here is a 24 frame loop of the convection in the gulf...

This is a great IR loop from Penn State.
That Penn State loop is a great help. Thanks.
"Welp, most of the random or outer-edged lightning strikes from the convection just to ENE of here in Corpus C, has stopped (For now) due to the core system circulation just about right over me. So I shall be on my way.
G-Bye peoples and hurricane-fanatics/holics."


Aeclightning
1114. guygee
It occurs to me that much of the increasing convection we are seeing on the radar off of the SE TX coast right now is the nocturnal result of low-level convergence bands that are pushing upwards the warm moist air from near the ocean surface into the cooling air aloft. Much less "blobiness" and more banding is developing on the radar. The direction of the bands tells the story of the low-level circulation...curling inwards towards the coast around CRP and otherwise mostly from the south.

My final look for tonight, good night to anyone who may still be up reading!
1115. guygee
Agreed Adrian that Penn State loop is great. Talk to you later.
Guys iam of to bed ...goodnight guys be back tommorow.
its chances of becoming a td have pretty much diminished however even though its not a td or storm it will still bring heavy rains and flooding to tx and la
2:05 TWD puts the 1008mb center inland.
warm-core rains guygee.. if you wanna see where the 'center' is, radar is painting is so clear that Stevie Wonder or Ray Charles could see it!
Before i go here's the 2:05 discussion on the wave approaching the islands...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 22N MOVING WEST NEAR 15-20 KT.
THE AREA OF LOW PRES THAT HAS BEEN ALONG THE WAVE OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS IS NO LONGER EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
AVAILABLE DATA. HOWEVER...THE WAVE STILL REMAINS WELL-DEFINED
WITH A TITLED INVERTED V-SHAPE EVIDENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALSO
INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
The well defined area of circ that just showed up on radar is drifting almost due east - Is it just a circ or a center? - Do we have a depression?
Sorry wx didnt see you post.
Oh wait up near Alice Texas looks promising too just on shore - Alice, Texas 29.83 in / 1010 hPa (Falling)
IS THE 205 DISCUSSSION SAYING THE WAVE IS MORE FAVORABLE OR LESS FAVORABLE? IT SAID IT LOST THE LOW BUT GAINED SHOWER ACTIVITY?
Yea I think we are still witnessing the magical dance of the circulations - there may be a bit more to go before we enjoy the splendid parade of the vortices.
Give and take h 23 I think - it also said it was still well defined - so it will be a good watch for sure.
Folks, what you are seeing on the CRP radar and the EWX radar is the center. It's on shore moving due N. Not NW, not NE... Straight toward Victoria....

Heavy rain near the center and due east with convection filling in toward Houston overnight...

Don't expect much to change and it officilly has 0% chance for cyclone development.
1129. 0741
soon we going be watching alot stuff in tropical so enjoy beach good weather because aug is almost here and then we be very busy
The weather is great in Corpus right now because the low is centered right above or just north of the area. Expect light wrap around showers in CRP later tonight and tomorrow. Flooding threat on the increase for the Victoria and Matagorda areas..

Hate to break yall's bubble in CRP but the heavy rains are no longer a threat... Just light showers amounting to 0.50in at best.
From Victoria to Beeville to Rockport and points north stand the best chance for flooding rains. Everyone else expect isolated light showers tonight and isolated showers and thunderstorms tomorrow amounting to 0.50in if you're lucky..

Will set radar alarm in case something changes... otherwise, i'm off for a ciesta..
1134. BigToe
The Wave approaching the Lesses Antilles has more than held its own during the overnight hours . Seems that the nightime, is the right time. This one bears watching.
1135. BigToe
The amount of shear through the Central Gulf is pretty spectacular. 40 to 60 kts. Looks like the funnel effect of winds through downtown skyscrapers.
1136. BigToe
...and oh by the way... gotta get me one of those radar alarms. Wx, Is this homeade or can you buy something like that??
Good Morning All,

I see we still have a mess in the GOM. Going to make life a little soggy for the people in Tx & La ...
good morning all looks like the wave nearing me is getting stronger
Sure does Mr.Puertorico.nice flair up to the south and east
well lets see how much it grows with this wind sheer
1141. bappit
Those sneaky web pages.

"158 degrees from north" is measured from the north but the wind is from the southeast, i.e., north is zero degrees.

Barometric changes listd on NDBC for buoys are over previous 24 hours. (That buoy gave me a rash.)
The wave doesn't look too dry this morning.

1144. SLU
morning guys

now that the convection with the antilles wave has increased the surface low has dissipated (lol) according to the NHC .. and i agree because surface observations and the morning's quikscat pass no longer depicts it.

anyone looking at the nice looking swirl near 15n 40w? .. the GFS has a good initialisation of it and it looks similar to the previous wave when it was located there 3 days or so ago

finally the GOM blob wont develop again unless a new low forms over land and quickly
1145. SLU
correction .... "over sea"
message from pr....stop....AHHHHHH....STOP


:) LOTS OF RAIN ON THE WAY
1147. sails1
Looks like the wave near the Antillies is getting better organized this am. Thndstrms continue to build; however, it is contending with some shear coming from the west. Will that shear abate? Someone let me know. Also, does this look like it may develop into TD #3?
God Morning All....The wave already is producing rain and gusting winds down here.
randrewl nice pic you can really make out the initial line inbetween pr and st. thomas
1150. ricderr
GOOD MORNING MR....

still surfing tomorrow?....i'm in san diego today and tomorrow for base inspections...weather expected to be a high of 78 and am hoping i can make it to the beach late this afternoon and see a few boarders..
06ZGFS Continues to look at the wave further east in the atlantic.
Morning all!
Not likely Sails! We'll have to see how it progresses over the next day or 2
Morning all.

Looks like the 6z GFS is less interested in the Antilles wave.

Back to work. Check in later
StormJunkie.com-Forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more.
I agree SJ. Two different scenarios with the CMC and GFS, both with similar outcomes.
hoping to be able to go today if the shear doesn't tear this thing apart and it stays like it is or worse i wont go out but the waves have been good for a few days already yesterday was a holiday in pr so i hit the waves 4-6 ft wasn't bad the seas are all chopy right now
Looking @ the ATL WV: Seems as if our carribean wave should suck up most of the dry air around it today. Looks like the GFS is wanting it to come in the direction of FL around Mon/Tues. The other two seem less conclusive.

PS-Could someone double check the shear levels forcasted for this weekend. To me it seems almost like the system might try to slide between two areas of higher shear. (once again according to the GFS)

Justin
1158. ricderr
hey stormjunkie....good comment last night about each geographical area having their bias to storms affecting their area....made things clearer...i'm still of the opinion this is the "nascar can't wait to see a car crash" site...but i might trim the percentages for and against that
1159. nash28
Good morning guys. Looks like the wave in the ATL is a little healthier this morning, but the GFS and even the CMC are backing off a bit in its development. We'll have to wait and see.
1160. ricderr
i understand choppy seas...in the treasure coast of florida..you can sit out there a half hour before a wave comes along that is rideable
GFS is actually been dissipating the current wave approacing the antilies and is looking at the wave behind it. It has been consistant with that since yesterday.
CMC is still developing the wave approaching the antilies.
we'll i am affraid pr is on the menu anyway or model you want to look at it seems that the wave are all being dipicted as goining (way to close in my taste) to pr. Now i know forcats so far out change dramatically but if you remeber last year pr had a dry year i was wondering if this year would be the same
Haha, I should be more on my game if I'm gonna comment this early in the day.

You guys are right about models being less bullish. My sleep-crusted eyes were still looking at the 00z run.

My bad/That's why you guys kick a$$!!! :)
ricderr you need to visit pr more remember pr is the hawaii of the east coast and you don't need a passport! the winter tres palmas pushes 12 to 15 ft sets at times even bigger san juan has several
good winter spots aswell and all the coast point in fact in the summer i watch for tropical waves they give nice sets 5 to 6 and higher mostly southern coast until about september then the wave travel more northward and then the northcoast starts to get good again
Morning everyone,

The last two days in here have seen HUGE #s of posts!!! (Like u guys didn't know that lol)

I see the wave coming into the Antilles doesn't look so hot for development. But I also see that it's held together nicely on the trip across the ATL. Looks like a sign of the times. One forecast I saw (earlier this week) brings this into the Bahamas S. FL area by Saturday . . .
Ric,

I don't mind if we don't see another ts all season, proving all the experts wrong. I just want to be paying attention in case another one does . . .
1168. guygee
Good Morning all.
Posted By: ricderr at 12:24 PM GMT on July 26, 2006.
i understand choppy seas...in the treasure coast of florida..you can sit out there a half hour before a wave comes along that is rideable

ricderr - LOL. FL-style boogie boarding: No fins. Wade out to the sandbar to just beyond where the waves are breaking. Wait for a steepening wave and push off the bottom to catch it. Not very artistic, but still fun!
1169. nash28
That wave still has a pretty good chance at development. Remember, conditions can and do change in a heartbeat. If this wave can get into some moist air with a decreased wind shear, the SST's will definately support development.
Models or not; we have to keep in mind this thing has been battling dust and dry air for its entire trip over.

This wave will be in a much more moist environment come this weekend.
1171. nash28
There is some convection this morning on the wave and it is still looking fairly healthy. I'm not saying this will definately be a TS or hurricane by next week, but we all know what happens to stubborn waves that hang around the Carribbean...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EDT WED JUL 26 2006

SUN-TUE...GFS CONTINUES TO ADVECT TROPICAL WAVE/MOISTURE CURRENTLY
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TOWARD THE PENINSULA SUNDAY/MONDAY. WHILE
THERE HAS BEEN SOME RECENT CONTINUITY IN THIS MODEL SOLUTION...BOTH
UKMET AND ECMWF HOLD RIDGE STRONG ACROSS PENINSULA AND SUGGEST
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES...WILL OPT TO CONTINUE ESTABLISHED TREND OF CLIMO POPS
AND TEMPS FOR NOW. WHILE NOT BUYING INTO GFS TROPICAL WAVE SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME...WILL ACCEPT GRADUAL WEAKENING AND/OR EASTWARD SHIFT
OF RIDGE AXIS AND THEREFORE VEERING/LESSENING OF WIND FIELDS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Have any of you "coastal guys" noticed any relationship to shark attacks vs. storms brewing. I'm a diver and it seems last year there were more shark attacks. It seems like a storm brewing in the distant gulf renders the best diving conditions off the coast ...i.e. the fish seem to move more into the coastal waters, but this does include sharks.
Is it finally over? Are we done talking about Texas!! Woohoo!!!..LOL
saddlegait...That is an interesting question. I wouldn't doubt that relationship. I have also thought that maybe the increased shark attacks might have been related to increased populations due to more restrictions on harvesting the sharks. Interesting reaearch topic though whatever the reason.
Good Morning Dr Master's Blog!

So Texas is getting rain and that blob in the Atlantic is pooping out huh? That is great.

Saw something about sharks and storms; I think it was 2003 that had so many shark attacks in the Gulf/Panhandle area; Don't know if they just all made national news all summer because we didn't have that many hurricanes to talk about that summer or not. With all the storms in 2004 and 2005 the attacks went sort of un noticed. So don't know how that works out. Don't have exact numbers.

Hope everyone is having a great Wednesday.
Gamma
LOL 03, Morning.
Just wanted to make a note that even though the GOM blob hasn't & won't be a named storm, it is continuing to dump a very heavy amount of rainfall on SE Texas... and appears it will for the rest of the day. We could have some pretty bad flooding here if this keeps up!
Last year, there were SEVERAL attacks in the gulf region - Panama City, Pensacola, Destin, etc. At the same time, there was waaay more activity in the gulf as far as tropical storms. This year, there isn't near the publicity at least, which I assume means no attacks. I intend to keep an eye on things as the gulf steams up in August, I just wonder about it. I have always been cautious. The tides definitely change and high tide lasts longer when storms are out in the distance - like I said - it makes for some awesome diving because there is wildlife that you normally don't see. I don't know if the creatures just react differently to the changes in the tides or are actually coming from places trying to get away from storms...it fascinates me just the same...do their little fishy homesteads get destroyed under the water - I read a lot of reefs suffered SERIOUS damage last year in the keys.
I am so jealous Houston... we NEED that rain - oh it rained north of us yesterday to the tune of about 2 - 3 inches - about 30 miles north of us ALL frickin day! But, when you step on our grass, it just crunches...I am afraid that a horseshoe against a rock would spark a major fire at this point!
1181. guygee
saddlegait - Not sure about that relationship, but when I am in the water and a school of fish starts jumping up around me I know they are probably being herded by some predators, so I cosy up on my board and enjoy the spectacle. I have heard that stirred-up murky waters might "confuse" the sharks somewhat and result in more attacks, but I don't know if that is actually true.

FL shark attacks are common but fatalities are very rare. Here is an interesting map of FL shark attacks by county, and here is a graph of total FL attacks by month. Interesting how the peak follows the peak of the hurricane season.
Yeah, that's what I have been thinking. Maybe we just get in the water more - especially you surfers, and maybe they are more confused - or just more "frenzied" at the abundance of food sources due to the same wildlife I love to watch when I dive in those times. Most people start heading north and we load up the gear and head to the coast - but that's based on predictions becuase we are out of there within 48 hours of any projected "hit". It's the 7 -3 days BEFORE a storm is expected to make landfall that the diving peaks. I hear theories about breeding seasons, etc., but the relationship to storms is intriguing.

I have seen sharks, but never aggressive sharks. I do believe in the theory that an attack on a human being is a mistake in judgement. I don't think sharks are smart enough to hate us or want us out of the way, they just live to eat and eat to live. Confusion is probably a good theory on the attacks.
saddlegait,

about shark attacks; I also don't go into the ocean with as much carefree abandment as I use to since all the shark attacks have been publized so much. I will hardly go in past shoulder depth or past depth you can see the bottom and area around you clearly...when I go into the ocean at all these days!

It is ashame here in South Florida, surrounded by water of all kinds and the fresh water is so full of gators you cannot swim in the rivers, lakes, and ponds...and the ocean has barricuda's and sharks and things that sting!
That's why we have pools and hot tubs in our back yards!LOL
What about a SST/shark feeding ground change. As SSTs warm the Gulf Stream heats up as well. Does this change in temp cause the fish and/or sharks to migrate to an area with more comfortable water temps. If so this would be to either/both side(s) of the GS. I would think that the coastal side of the stream would be "better" for marine life. Greater coastal marine life=More sharks close to people. At this point of the logic train it just becomes a numbers game. More shark people interactions leads to more bites.
I might be crazy or its too early, but it looks like the ULL or MLL or elongated L over the Texas coast might emerge out over the gulf just below Galveston. I wonder if this thing still has any kick. I know some of you need rain, but we do not need any here in Baton Rouge. (Geaux Tigers! Now, that's writen in stone)
I agree Sefla... we don't snorkel to the depths near like we used to. Used to walk off the beach until the people looked like dots...now we hang towards the shore IF we go in at all. Worst than the fear of sharks lately is the fear of getting run over by a jet ski driven by some vacationing lunatic who "hopefully" is sober but more than likely is not! Those things would be enough to anger the gentlest of sharks! We have gators really bad lately here in Alabama...hate those guys too except they manage to keep the cat population down which is a plus! It's a little unnerving though to walk out in your back yard and hear one hissing - especially when you don't live that close to any large pools of water. With the dry weather, the local pools are experiencing problems with snakes, especially the copperheads and rattlers. They are just starving for a source of water.
Cajun - go to Home Depot and buy all the fans they have...put them in the yard and point them towards AL. Turn them all on... MAYBE you can blow that stuff our direction...
1188. C2News
hey gamma....there is springs in florida and their too cold for gators
Those springs are too cold for divers too. We have two here...it's like jumping into a bucket of ice...kids love it. Well guys thanks for the shark links. I LOVE this blog, but know it is reserved for weather. Any ideas on the shark weather thing are great - I just really believe there is a relationship...I aint a young chic and I've spent most of my adult life hitting the water...I have noticed this for many, many years.
saddlegait~ Hey, horses here too... Check out the new Equus magazine (hit my mailbox yesterday). Good article on lessons learned from Katrina. Similiar to lessons learned from Andrew except the inovations in the microchipping & how well rescue agencys are working together now. They had made it law to microchip when you get the coggins pulled in LA, if not already chipped. Stolen horses weren't an issue with Katrina like Andrew. They had a story about the horses in one of the parishes. Wow, if it hadn't been for the grass on the leeves many would have starved. Like usual this time of day gotta post & run.
1191. C2News
saddlegait...where do ya live?
Let me be the first to say the dust looks nasty on the Atlantic visible this morning...YUCK
I'll just go get my sky hook in the shop and hook my tractor up to it. Then I can pull over there if I could please get donations for diesel.
Sky...if you ever have to evacuate and the storms are heading towards SE AL. you have a place to put them on pasture until you can get things back in order. We offered last year to Katrina people well in advance but I don't think they believed the storm could do what it did. My horses are nearing "Retirement" age except a couple of babies that are spoiled out of their minds. Lately, the ground just gets harder and I don't bounce like I used to.
1195. guygee
seminolesfan - That makes some sense...offshore winds can produce upwelling near the coast, so maybe conditions are more favorable near the coast during those months.

I never let the thought of sharks bother me, when compared to the number of people in the water the attacks are still very rare. Lightning is much more dangerous, and everyday driving even much more so.
I live in the great City of Brundidge Alabama. And...I'm not kidding there.. population of probably less than 3,000 and everyone is pure gold... it is a great place...unless something like Ivan heads this way again. Two hours from the coast, less than an hour from great shopping and just a great place to live.
I think half of Florida is trying to relocate to this area. My husband owns a construction company and you would not believe the calls we are getting - people buying land for "second homes" or "safe havens" when the hurricanes hit...at least some people did pay attention this last year.
1198. C2News
o i live in north florida and we really never get any direct hits of storms.....last near miss was floyd
That is funny about the fans..we in SE Fla could gladly send you some rain also!

C2news, I've heard about some cold springs in Florida....but wasn't a young boy killed by a gator in one of those springs about 10 years ago?

Hubby and I like to do canoeing or kyacking (both misspelled) but we have to be real careful when we do it in Florida water!

Gamma
Tornado warning just issued for us.
Take cover Houston - we will pray that it doesn't ever touch down. Worst part about these storms when you get inland.

where are those Cold Spring Feed sstreams in Florida? We were at the one in the NW Big Bend curve last year (around Inverness, Homasoma area) where we were swimming with Manatees..it was connected to Gulf but inland was clear, cold spring water. Boats were anchored out there and everyone was in the water...forgot the name of that place but really nice.
1203. C2News
yes but the attacks are usually located in river flooded springs...in 2004 when all the storms came through the springs flooded to the point of flooding roads to the springs....i swam right next to a gator in '04 without realizing it.....the springs warm up when river water intrudes
1204. C2News
homosassa SPRING
1205. C2News
there was one recently on a privatley owned spring fed juniper creek
Ivan came inland and went directly over Montgomery, AL. We were on the eastern side through the entire thing. It moved so slow and those winds never seemed to die down - well...wave after wave after wave. At one point, I think there were 15 reported tornadoes on the ground and the media was complaining that they just could really not keep track of all the warnings. We had two on our little piece of property - they were small though - no thunder and lightening as the sky was swirling too much for that, just funnels that dropped up and down and did their damage. You didn't have time to hear them coming because they literally dropped out of the sky right on top of you. Nature is truly amazing. No real damage though, just trees, they seemed to dodge the buildings and livestock. Unless a storm comes directly into Pensacola or Panama City, we are spared for the most part - we get a lot of evacuees and the hotels and restaurants all raise their prices and pretend they care about them.
We used to swim with the manatee in Crystal River. Defuniak Springs has a great "cavern" for divers. It has a line all the way in and out for safety - still sometimes someone does something stupid. Morrison Springs is another one we used to don wetsuits and dive just to say we did!
C2, yes it was Homossassa Springs we were out. Had a pontoon for the day. It was great and will definately go back there again sometime.
We have neighbors with a vacation home in Inverness/Flora City not far frm there.

Texas, take care and hold on. Hope the tornadoes don't hit anyone.
1209. C2News
tornado near my house (jax,fl) other day
Hate those things. Dealt with them all my life in Tennessee and then Nebraska..at least a Hurricane gives you warning and time to prepare - a tornado is so unpredictable and so powerful. I lost some friends when I was in junior high to a night of unrelenting tornadoes and our community was destroyed. I hope to never see that again and I hate to see it happen to anyone else.
saddlegait, I wish we had people building second homes instead of totally relocating. I understand and feel for those who were affected, but Baton Rouge has changed for the worse I fear. I grew up in a small town and I think it may be time to move back.
I highly recommend the small town life. My daughter disagrees but we are close enough to large towns (who isn't anymore) that she gets a little of both. I love that we have slowed down and started to just take things day be day for a change. It's a great change. I fear that Louisiana is never going to fully recover - how can anyone afford to rebuild in an area that is destined to get hit again. I believe the reality of our overspending frivolous government is setting in and creating a situation where people in that area are going to be expected to fend for themselves. Our entire infrastructure right now in the entire nation, in my opinion, is old, outdated and too expensive to fully replace unless we start with revanping all the pork in the government spending and directing it to causes that are genuinely necessary. I preach a good sermon on that one, but don't intend to volunteer to try to be a part of the political solution - that's the inherent problem isn't it - we all see the need but our politicians are aware of the fact that the average person can't afford to enter into the fray and try to get a chance to work towards change. Then, if they do, they are seduced by the money flow and become what they are trying to change. That's my 2 cents...4 cents...dollars worth.

I have to agree about the change in Baton Rouge. My husband is from there, and with his elderly parents still living there, the sudden influx to the city has really affected their everyday life.
1214. C2News
in rebuilding louisiana and new orleans.....create a barrier from flooding first and make super powered levees THEN rebuild the city so it can't get destroyed again
1215. guygee
Very well put saddlegait, I think many start out with good intentions, but few are strong enough to avoid being corrupted.
Here, our biggest concern is keeping enough industry close by to support the citizens. We have a good city council who work very well with organizations to accomplish that, but there is still the reality that labor is cheaper overseas and living expenses, even here, are such that you have to have a certain level of earnings. Then, our influx here is basically comprised of illegals and I won't even get into that political conversation.
Guy... in all honesty, I can't say that I wouldn't be immune to the corruption...thus... I just simply sit back and gripe because IF I ever did become a part of the problem and woke up, I couldn't live with myself... I don't see how any of them do... I think they have the "so and so and so and so is doing it and it's just the way it is...so let's enjoy this Mercedes and not worry about it". It's a different world and they don't have the accountability they need - shoot - they write the laws so they just fix it to work for them.
Hey everyone,
Doc has a new thread up in case you haven't noticed it yet.

See ya.

Gams
1219. guygee
C2News - Agreed with your idea of investing in the N.O. levees, then bring all the residents back. N.O. is too much a part of our countries history and heritage to just "write off".

Half of the Netherlands is below sea level...if they can do it, why can't the we? Interesting article on the Netherlands regarding levees and storms here.
Good points sattlegait & thanks for the offer. We'd load up & run from a 4 or 5 & might take ya up on it. I'll extend the same to you, but rarely do people evacuate to east central Fl.
1221. C2News
exactly and considering usa is supposed to be a world super power.....then why cant we do it
1222. guygee
saddlegait - I had a job away from my family in D.C. for several months year ago, and I ended up living on Capitol Hill. Since I was there anyways, I volunteered to be an intern for my old hometown congresscritter...read his mail, took calls, and took notes at meetings when the staff couldn't make it. The biggest problems IMHO are that we have privately funded elections, which results in too much power for the lobbyists that represent the monied interests instead of the common people.
1223. guygee
OK...on to the new blog...